WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling multiple species

  1. Dynamic models for problems of species occurrence with multiple states

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

    2009-01-01

    Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture?recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.

  2. Modeling species occurrence dynamics with multiple states and imperfect detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

    2009-01-01

    Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  3. Finding all multiple stable fixpoints of n-species Lotka-Volterra competition models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lischke, Heike; Löffler, Thomas J

    2017-06-01

    One way to explore assembly of extant and novel communities from species pools, and by that biodiversity and species ranges, is to study the equilibrium behavior of dynamic competition models such as the Lotka-Volterra competition (LVC) model. We present a novel method (COMMUSTIX) to determine all stable fixpoints of the general LVC model with abundances x from a given pool of n species. To that purpose, we split the species in potentially surviving species (x i >0) and in others going extinct (x i =0). We derived criteria for the stability of x i =0 and for the equilibrium of x i >0 to determine possible combinations of extinct and surviving species by iteratively applying a mixed binary linear optimization algorithm. We tested this new method against (a) the numerical solution at equilibrium of the LVC ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and (b) the fixpoints of all combinations of surviving and extinct species (possible only for small n), tested for stability and non-negativity. The tests revealed that COMMUSTIX is reliable, it detects all multiple stable fixpoints (SFPs), which is not guaranteed by solving the ODEs, and more efficient than the combinations method. With COMMUSTIX, we studied the dependence of the fixpoint behavior on the competition strengths relative to the intra-specific competition. If inter-specific competition was considerably lower than intra-specific competition, only globally SFPs occurred. In contrast, if all inter-specific was higher than intra-specific competition, multiple SFPs consisting of only one species occurred. If competition strengths in the species pool ranged from below to above the intra-specific competition, either global or multiple SFPs strongly differing in species composition occurred. The species richness over all SFPs was high for pools of species with similar, either weak or strong competition, and lower for species with dissimilar or close to intra-specific competition strengths. The new approach is a reliable

  4. A Distributed Agent Implementation of Multiple Species Flocking Model for Document Partitioning Clustering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, Xiaohui [ORNL; Potok, Thomas E [ORNL

    2006-01-01

    The Flocking model, first proposed by Craig Reynolds, is one of the first bio-inspired computational collective behavior models that has many popular applications, such as animation. Our early research has resulted in a flock clustering algorithm that can achieve better performance than the Kmeans or the Ant clustering algorithms for data clustering. This algorithm generates a clustering of a given set of data through the embedding of the highdimensional data items on a two-dimensional grid for efficient clustering result retrieval and visualization. In this paper, we propose a bio-inspired clustering model, the Multiple Species Flocking clustering model (MSF), and present a distributed multi-agent MSF approach for document clustering.

  5. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spill, Fabian, E-mail: fspill@bu.edu [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Boston University, 44 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Guerrero, Pilar [Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Alarcon, Tomas [Centre de Recerca Matematica, Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Atonòma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Maini, Philip K. [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Byrne, Helen [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Computational Biology Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QD (United Kingdom)

    2015-10-15

    Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries.

  6. Semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson models with application to studies of abundance for multiple species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arab, Ali; Holan, Scott H.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    Ecological studies involving counts of abundance, presence–absence or occupancy rates often produce data having a substantial proportion of zeros. Furthermore, these types of processes are typically multivariate and only adequately described by complex nonlinear relationships involving externally measured covariates. Ignoring these aspects of the data and implementing standard approaches can lead to models that fail to provide adequate scientific understanding of the underlying ecological processes, possibly resulting in a loss of inferential power. One method of dealing with data having excess zeros is to consider the class of univariate zero-inflated generalized linear models. However, this class of models fails to address the multivariate and nonlinear aspects associated with the data usually encountered in practice. Therefore, we propose a semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model that takes into account both of these data attributes. The general modeling framework is hierarchical Bayes and is suitable for a broad range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example on modeling catch per unit area for multiple species using data from the Missouri River Benthic Fishes Study, implemented by the United States Geological Survey.

  7. Forelimb preferences in human beings and other species: multiple models for testing hypotheses on lateralization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta eVersace

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Consistent preferences in the use of right/left forelimbs are not exclusively present in humans. Functional asymmetries in forelimb use have been widely documented in a variety of vertebrate and invertebrate species. A matter of debate is whether non-human species exhibit a degree and consistency of functional forelimb asymmetries comparable to human handedness. The comparison is made difficult by the variability in hand use in humans and the few comparable studies conducted on other species. In spite of this, interesting continuities appear in functions such as feeding, object manipulation and communicative gestures. Studies on invertebrates show how widespread forelimb preferences are among animals, and the importance of experience for the development of forelimb asymmetries. Vertebrate species have been extensively investigated to clarify the origins of forelimb functional asymmetries: comparative evidence shows that selective pressures for different functions have likely driven the evolution of human handedness. Evidence of a complex genetic architecture of human handedness is in line with the idea of multiple evolutionary origins of this trait.

  8. General fugacity-based model to predict the environmental fate of multiple chemical species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Thomas M; Cousins, Ian; Mackay, Donald

    2003-03-01

    A general multimedia environmental fate model is presented that is capable of simulating the fate of up to four interconverting chemical species. It is an extension of the existing equilibrium criterion (EQC) fugacity model, which is limited to single-species assessments. It is suggested that multispecies chemical assessments are warranted when a degradation product of a released chemical is either more toxic or more persistent than the parent chemical or where there is cycling between species, as occurs with association, disassociation, or ionization. The model is illustratively applied to three chemicals, namely chlorpyrifos, pentachlorophenol, and perfluorooctane sulfonate, for which multispecies assessments are advisable. The model results compare favorably with field data for chlorpyrifos and pentachlorophenol, while the perfluorooctane sulfonate simulation is more speculative due to uncertainty in input parameters and the paucity of field data to validate the predictions. The model thus provides a tool for assessing the environmental fate and behavior of a group of chemicals that hitherto have not been addressed by evaluative models such as EQC.

  9. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spill, Fabian; Guerrero, Pilar; Alarcon, Tomas; Maini, Philip K.; Byrne, Helen

    2015-10-01

    Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.

  10. Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models.

    KAUST Repository

    Spill, Fabian

    2015-10-01

    Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.

  11. Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat-mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Mortelliti, Alessio; Kay, Geoffrey M; Florance, Daniel; Lindenmayer, David

    2016-08-01

    Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics-information that is lacking in most threat-management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird-population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch-colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat-mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Multiple glacial refugia of the low-dispersal ground beetle Carabus irregularis: molecular data support predictions of species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Homburg

    Full Text Available Classical glacial refugia such as the southern European peninsulas were important for species survival during glacial periods and acted as sources of post-glacial colonisation processes. Only recently, some studies have provided evidence for glacial refugia north of the southern European peninsulas. In the present study, we combined species distribution models (SDMs with phylogeographic analyses (using mitochondrial DNA = mtDNA to investigate if the cold-adapted, stenotopic and flightless ground beetle species, Carabus irregularis, survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM in classical and/or other refugia. SDMs (for both a western European and for a Carpathian subgroup were calculated with MAXENT on the basis of 645 species records to predict current and past distribution patterns. Two mtDNA loci (CO1 and ND5, concatenated sequence length: 1785 bp were analyzed from 91 C. irregularis specimens to reconstruct the phylogeography of Central and eastern European populations and to estimate divergence times of the given lineages. Strong intra-specific genetic differentiation (inter-clade ΦST values ranged from 0.92 to 0.99 implied long-term isolation of major clades and subsclades. The high divergence between the nominate subspecies and the Carpathian subspecies C. i. montandoni points to two independent species rather than subspecies (K-2P distance 0.042 ± 0.004; supposed divergence of the maternal lineages dated back 1.6 to 2.5 million years BP differing not only morphologically but also genetically and ecologically from each other. The SDMs also inferred classical as well as other refugia for C. irregularis, especially north of the Alps, in southeastern Europe and in the Carpathians. The coincidences between the results of both methods confirm the assumption of multiple glacial refugia for the studied species and the usefulness of combining methodological approaches for the understanding of the history of low-dispersal insect species.

  13. Bounding species distribution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].

  14. Bounding Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

  15. The Steiner Multigraph Problem: Wildlife corridor design for multiple species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine J. Lai; Carla P. Gomes; Michael K. Schwartz; Kevin S. McKelvey; David E. Calkin; Claire A. Montgomery

    2011-01-01

    The conservation of wildlife corridors between existing habitat preserves is important for combating the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation facing species of concern. We introduce the Steiner Multigraph Problem to model the problem of minimum-cost wildlife corridor design for multiple species with different landscape requirements. This problem can also model...

  16. Multiple bacterial species reside in chronic wounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjødsbøl, Kristine; Christensen, Jens Jørgen; Karlsmark, Tonny

    2006-01-01

    . aeruginosa were found to be significantly larger than ulcers without the presence of P. aeruginosa (P wound is colonised by multiple bacterial species and that once they are established many of them persist in the wound. Our results suggest that the presence...... of P. aeruginosa in venous leg ulcers can induce ulcer enlargement and/or cause delayed healing....

  17. Hierarchical species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

  18. Phylogeographic investigation and ecological niche modelling of the endemic frog species Nanorana pleskei revealed multiple refugia in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The largest plateau Tibetan Plateau supplied an excellent opportunity to investigate the influence of the Pleistocene events on the high-elevation species. To test for the alternative hypotheses of Pleistocene glacial refugia, we used partial sequences of two mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene to examine the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic frog species Nanorana pleskei across its known range in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and conducted species distribution modelling (SDM to explore changes of its distribution range through current and paleo periods. In all data sets, the species was divided into lineage north occupying open plateau platform and lineage south colonizing the mountainous plateau. The divergence of two major clades was estimated at the early Pleistocene. In mtDNA, lineage north contained northeastern and northwestern sublineages, and lineage south had two overlapping-distributed sublineages. Different lineages possessed distinct demographic characteristics, i.e., subdivision in the northeastern sublineage, historical bottleneck effects and recent expansions in the northwestern sublineage and the southeastern sublineage. SDMs depicted that stable suitable habitats had existed in the upper-middle streams of the Yellow River, Dadu River, Jinsha River and Yalong River. These regions were also recognized as the ancestral areas of different lineages. In conclusion, Nanorana pleskei lineages have probably experienced long-term separations. Stable suitable habitats existing in upper-middle streams of major rivers on the eastern Tibetan Plateau and distinct demographic dynamics of different lineages indicated that the lineages possessed independent evolutionary processes in multiple glacial refugia. The findings verified the profound effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on the plateau endemic species.

  19. Phylogeographic investigation and ecological niche modelling of the endemic frog species Nanorana pleskei revealed multiple refugia in the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Xie, Feng; Li, Jiannan; Wang, Gang; Li, Cheng; Jiang, Jianping

    2017-01-01

    The largest plateau Tibetan Plateau supplied an excellent opportunity to investigate the influence of the Pleistocene events on the high-elevation species. To test for the alternative hypotheses of Pleistocene glacial refugia, we used partial sequences of two mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene to examine the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic frog species Nanorana pleskei across its known range in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and conducted species distribution modelling (SDM) to explore changes of its distribution range through current and paleo periods. In all data sets, the species was divided into lineage north occupying open plateau platform and lineage south colonizing the mountainous plateau. The divergence of two major clades was estimated at the early Pleistocene. In mtDNA, lineage north contained northeastern and northwestern sublineages, and lineage south had two overlapping-distributed sublineages. Different lineages possessed distinct demographic characteristics, i.e., subdivision in the northeastern sublineage, historical bottleneck effects and recent expansions in the northwestern sublineage and the southeastern sublineage. SDMs depicted that stable suitable habitats had existed in the upper-middle streams of the Yellow River, Dadu River, Jinsha River and Yalong River. These regions were also recognized as the ancestral areas of different lineages. In conclusion, Nanorana pleskei lineages have probably experienced long-term separations. Stable suitable habitats existing in upper-middle streams of major rivers on the eastern Tibetan Plateau and distinct demographic dynamics of different lineages indicated that the lineages possessed independent evolutionary processes in multiple glacial refugia. The findings verified the profound effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on the plateau endemic species.

  20. Vaccination control programs for multiple livestock host species: an age-stratified, seasonal transmission model for brucellosis control in endemic settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauvais, Wendy; Musallam, Imadidden; Guitian, Javier

    2016-01-30

    melitensis predominates in cattle in Jordan, as opposed to Brucella abortus, is needed in order to validate this model. The results may be applicable to other mixed-species settings with similar livestock management practices. These methods may be applied to other pathogens affecting multiple livestock species or with seasonal transmission.

  1. Whole genome phylogenies for multiple Drosophila species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seetharam Arun

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reconstructing the evolutionary history of organisms using traditional phylogenetic methods may suffer from inaccurate sequence alignment. An alternative approach, particularly effective when whole genome sequences are available, is to employ methods that don’t use explicit sequence alignments. We extend a novel phylogenetic method based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD to reconstruct the phylogeny of 12 sequenced Drosophila species. SVD analysis provides accurate comparisons for a high fraction of sequences within whole genomes without the prior identification of orthologs or homologous sites. With this method all protein sequences are converted to peptide frequency vectors within a matrix that is decomposed to provide simplified vector representations for each protein of the genome in a reduced dimensional space. These vectors are summed together to provide a vector representation for each species, and the angle between these vectors provides distance measures that are used to construct species trees. Results An unfiltered whole genome analysis (193,622 predicted proteins strongly supports the currently accepted phylogeny for 12 Drosophila species at higher dimensions except for the generally accepted but difficult to discern sister relationship between D. erecta and D. yakuba. Also, in accordance with previous studies, many sequences appear to support alternative phylogenies. In this case, we observed grouping of D. erecta with D. sechellia when approximately 55% to 95% of the proteins were removed using a filter based on projection values or by reducing resolution by using fewer dimensions. Similar results were obtained when just the melanogaster subgroup was analyzed. Conclusions These results indicate that using our novel phylogenetic method, it is possible to consult and interpret all predicted protein sequences within multiple whole genomes to produce accurate phylogenetic estimations of relatedness between

  2. Species Distribution Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gomes, Vitor H. F.; Ijff, Stephanie D.; Raes, Niels

    2018-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SD...

  3. Multiple species reactive chemical transport in groundwater: A verification exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhan, T.N.; Apps, J.A.; Zhu, Ming.

    1991-04-01

    Two multiple-species reactive chemical transport models (FASTCHEM and DYNAMIX) were tested against each other to check for consistency of solutions. For the particular problem studied, FASTCHEM and DYNAMIX led to differences in aqueous concentrations and mineral assemblages primarily because FASTCHEM ignores redox reactions in the transport phase of the calculations. Also, the spatial concentration profiles generated by FASTCHEM tend to be sharper than those generated by DYNAMIX because FASTCHEM is particularly designed to handle advection-dominated transport systems

  4. Diffusion of multiple species with excluded-volume effects

    KAUST Repository

    Bruna, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic models of diffusion with excluded-volume effects are used to model many biological and physical systems at a discrete level. The average properties of the population may be described by a continuum model based on partial differential equations. In this paper we consider multiple interacting subpopulations/species and study how the inter-species competition emerges at the population level. Each individual is described as a finite-size hard core interacting particle undergoing Brownian motion. The link between the discrete stochastic equations of motion and the continuum model is considered systematically using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. The system for two species leads to a nonlinear cross-diffusion system for each subpopulation, which captures the enhancement of the effective diffusion rate due to excluded-volume interactions between particles of the same species, and the diminishment due to particles of the other species. This model can explain two alternative notions of the diffusion coefficient that are often confounded, namely collective diffusion and self-diffusion. Simulations of the discrete system show good agreement with the analytic results. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

  5. Diffusion of multiple species with excluded-volume effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruna, Maria; Chapman, S Jonathan

    2012-11-28

    Stochastic models of diffusion with excluded-volume effects are used to model many biological and physical systems at a discrete level. The average properties of the population may be described by a continuum model based on partial differential equations. In this paper we consider multiple interacting subpopulations/species and study how the inter-species competition emerges at the population level. Each individual is described as a finite-size hard core interacting particle undergoing brownian motion. The link between the discrete stochastic equations of motion and the continuum model is considered systematically using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. The system for two species leads to a nonlinear cross-diffusion system for each subpopulation, which captures the enhancement of the effective diffusion rate due to excluded-volume interactions between particles of the same species, and the diminishment due to particles of the other species. This model can explain two alternative notions of the diffusion coefficient that are often confounded, namely collective diffusion and self-diffusion. Simulations of the discrete system show good agreement with the analytic results.

  6. Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunz, Martin; Bassett, Bruce A.; Hlozek, Renee A.

    2007-01-01

    Observed data are often contaminated by undiscovered interlopers, leading to biased parameter estimation. Here we present BEAMS (Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species) which significantly improves on the standard maximum likelihood approach in the case where the probability for each data point being ''pure'' is known. We discuss the application of BEAMS to future type-Ia supernovae (SNIa) surveys, such as LSST, which are projected to deliver over a million supernovae light curves without spectra. The multiband light curves for each candidate will provide a probability of being Ia (pure) but the full sample will be significantly contaminated with other types of supernovae and transients. Given a sample of N supernovae with mean probability, , of being Ia, BEAMS delivers parameter constraints equal to N spectroscopically confirmed SNIa. In addition BEAMS can be simultaneously used to tease apart different families of data and to recover properties of the underlying distributions of those families (e.g. the type-Ibc and II distributions). Hence BEAMS provides a unified classification and parameter estimation methodology which may be useful in a diverse range of problems such as photometric redshift estimation or, indeed, any parameter estimation problem where contamination is an issue

  7. Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Carter, Randy L; Cullings, Harry M; Carroll, Raymond J

    2014-11-10

    Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this paper are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methods for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. As a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Mapping habitat for multiple species in the Desert Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Vandergast, Amy G.; Hathaway, Stacie A.; Wood, Dustin A.; Barr, Kelly R.; Fisher, Robert N.

    2014-01-01

    Many utility scale renewable energy projects are currently proposed across the Mojave Ecoregion. Agencies that manage biological resources throughout this region need to understand the potential impacts of these renewable energy projects and their associated infrastructure (for example, transmission corridors, substations, access roads, etc.) on species movement, genetic exchange among populations, and species’ abilities to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Understanding these factors will help managers’ select appropriate project sites and possibly mitigate for anticipated effects of management activities. We used species distribution models to map habitat for 15 species across the Mojave Ecoregion to aid regional land-use management planning. Models were developed using a common 1 × 1 kilometer resolution with maximum entropy and generalized additive models. Occurrence data were compiled from multiple sources, including VertNet (http://vertnet.org/), HerpNET (http://www.herpnet.org), and MaNIS (http://manisnet.org), as well as from internal U.S. Geological Survey databases and other biologists. Background data included 20 environmental covariates representing terrain, vegetation, and climate covariates. This report summarizes these environmental covariates and species distribution models used to predict habitat for the 15 species across the Mojave Ecoregion.

  9. Species distribution modelling for plant communities: Stacked single species or multivariate modelling approaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emilie B. Henderson; Janet L. Ohmann; Matthew J. Gregory; Heather M. Roberts; Harold S.J. Zald

    2014-01-01

    Landscape management and conservation planning require maps of vegetation composition and structure over large regions. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used for individual species, but projects mapping multiple species are rarer. We compare maps of plant community composition assembled by stacking results from many SDMs with multivariate maps constructed...

  10. Planning, implementing, and monitoring multiple-species habitat conservation plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Janet; Regan, Helen M; Hierl, Lauren A; Deutschman, Douglas H; Johnson, Brenda S; Winchell, Clark S

    2011-03-01

    Despite numerous recommendations for various aspects of the design and monitoring of habitat conservation plans, there remains a need to synthesize existing guidelines into a comprehensive scheme and apply it to real-world conservation programs. We review tools for systematic conservation planning and elements for designing and implementing ecological monitoring in an adaptive management context. We apply principles of monitoring design to the San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) in California, USA--one of the first multispecies habitat conservation plans, located in a landscape where high biodiversity and urban development converge. Tools for spatial conservation planning are aimed to conserve biodiversity, often in the context of a limited budget. In practice, these methods may not accommodate legislative mandates, budgetary uncertainties, and the range of implementation mechanisms available across consortia of stakeholders. Once a reserve is implemented, the question becomes whether it is effective at conserving biodiversity, and if not, what actions are required to make it effective. In monitoring plan development, status and threats should be used to prioritize species and communities that require management action to ensure their persistence. Conceptual models documenting the state of knowledge of the system should highlight the main drivers affecting status and trends of species or communities. Monitoring strategies require scientifically justified decisions based on sampling, response, and data design. Because the framework illustrated here tackles multiple species, communities, and threats at the urban-wildland interface, it will have utility for ecosystem managers struggling to design monitoring programs.

  11. Multiple bacterial species reside in chronic wounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjødsbøl, Kristine; Christensen, Jens Jørgen; Karlsmark, Tonny

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the bacterial profile of chronic venous leg ulcers and the importance of the profile to ulcer development. Patients with persisting venous leg ulcers were included and followed for 8 weeks. Every second week, ulcer samples were collected and the bacterial...... of P. aeruginosa in venous leg ulcers can induce ulcer enlargement and/or cause delayed healing....... species present were identified. More than one bacterial species were detected in all the ulcers. The most common bacteria found were Staphylococcus aureus (found in 93.5% of the ulcers), Enterococcus faecalis (71.7%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (52.2%), coagulase-negative staphylococci (45.7%), Proteus...

  12. VORICONAZOLE TOXICITY IN MULTIPLE PENGUIN SPECIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyatt, Michael W; Georoff, Timothy A; Nollens, Hendrik H; Wells, Rebecca L; Clauss, Tonya M; Ialeggio, Donna M; Harms, Craig A; Wack, Allison N

    2015-12-01

    Aspergillosis is a common respiratory fungal disease in penguins managed under human care. Triazole antifungal drugs, including itraconazole, are most commonly used for treatment; however, itraconazole treatment failures from drug resistance are becoming more common, requiring newer treatment options. Voriconazole, a newer triazole, is being used more often. Until recently, no voriconazole pharmacokinetic studies had been performed in penguins, leading to empiric dosing based on other avian studies. This has led to increased anecdotal reporting of apparent voriconazole toxicity in penguins. This report describes 18 probable and 6 suspected cases of voriconazole toxicity in six penguin species from nine institutions: 12 African penguins (Spheniscus demersus), 5 Humboldt penguins (Spheniscus humboldti), 3 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus), 2 gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua papua), 1 macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus), and 1 emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). Observed clinical signs of toxicity included anorexia, lethargy, weakness, ataxia, paresis, apparent vision changes, seizure-like activity, and generalized seizures. Similar signs of toxicity have also been reported in humans, in whom voriconazole therapeutic plasma concentration for Aspergillus spp. infections is 2-6 μg/ml. Plasma voriconazole concentrations were measured in 18 samples from penguins showing clinical signs suggestive of voriconazole toxicity. The concentrations ranged from 8.12 to 64.17 μg/ml, with penguins having plasma concentrations above 30 μg/ml exhibiting moderate to severe neurologic signs, including ataxia, paresis, and seizures. These concentrations were well above those known to result in central nervous system toxicity, including encephalopathy, in humans. This case series highlights the importance of species-specific dosing of voriconazole in penguins and plasma therapeutic drug monitoring. Further investigation, including pharmacokinetic studies, is

  13. Traffic by multiple species of molecular motors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Yan; Klumpp, Stefan; Müller, Melanie J I; Lipowsky, Reinhard

    2009-10-01

    We study the traffic of two types of molecular motors using the two-species asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) with periodic boundary conditions and with attachment and detachment of particles. We determine characteristic properties such as motor densities and currents by simulations and analytical calculations. For motors with different unbinding probabilities, mean-field theory gives the correct bound density and total current of the motors, as shown by numerical simulations. For motors differing in their stepping probabilities, the particle-hole symmetry of the current-density relationship is broken and mean-field theory fails drastically. The total motor current exhibits exponential finite-size scaling, which we use to extrapolate the total current to the thermodynamic limit. Finally, we also study the motion of a single motor in the background of many nonmoving motors.

  14. Source and risk apportionment of selected VOCs and PM2.5 species using partially constrained receptor models with multiple time resolution data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Ho-Tang; Chou, Charles C.-K.; Chow, Judith C.; Watson, John G.; Hopke, Philip K.; Wu, Chang-Fu

    2015-01-01

    This study was conducted to identify and quantify the sources of selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) by using a partially constrained source apportionment model suitable for multiple time resolution data. Hourly VOC, 12-h and 24-h PM 2.5 speciation data were collected during three seasons in 2013. Eight factors were retrieved from the Positive Matrix Factorization solutions and adding source profile constraints enhanced the interpretability of source profiles. Results showed that the evaporative emission factor was the largest contributor (25%) to VOC mass concentration, while the largest contributor to PM 2.5 mass concentration was soil dust/regional transport related factor (26%). In terms of risk prioritization, traffic/industry related factor was the major cause for benzene, ethylbenzene, Cr, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (29–69%) while petrochemical related factor contributed most to the Ni risk (36%). This indicated that a larger contributor to mass concentration may not correspond to a higher risk. - Highlights: • We applied a partially constrained receptor model to multiple time resolution data. • Hourly VOC, 12-h and 24-h PM 2.5 speciation data were combined in the model. • Adding constraints to the model enhanced the interpretability of source profiles. • We applied a risk apportionment approach to obtain the source-specific risk values. • A larger contributor to mass concentration may not correspond to a higher risk. - Combining a constrained receptor model and a risk apportionment approach could provide valuable information to design effective control strategies

  15. Effects of biotic interactions and dispersal on the presence-absence of multiple species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd, Mohd Hafiz; Murray, Rua; Plank, Michael J.; Godsoe, William

    2017-01-01

    One of the important issues in ecology is to predict which species will be present (or absent) across a geographical region. Dispersal is thought to have an important influence on the range limits of species, and understanding this problem in a multi-species community with priority effects (i.e. initial abundances determine species presence-absence) is a challenging task because dispersal also interacts with biotic and abiotic factors. Here, we propose a simple multi-species model to investigate the joint effects of biotic interactions and dispersal on species presence-absence. Our results show that dispersal can substantially expand species ranges when biotic and abiotic forces are present; consequently, coexistence of multiple species is possible. The model also exhibits ecologically interesting priority effects, mediated by intense biotic interactions. In the absence of dispersal, competitive exclusion of all but one species occurs. We find that dispersal reduces competitive exclusion effects that occur in no-dispersal case and promotes coexistence of multiple species. These results also show that priority effects are still prevalent in multi-species communities in the presence of dispersal process. We also illustrate the existence of threshold values of competitive strength (i.e. transcritical bifurcations), which results in different species presence-absence in multi-species communities with and without dispersal.

  16. As multiple fish species in large marine ecosystems are harvested ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    CMPTMAC10

    As multiple fish species in large marine ecosystems are harvested increasingly, predator-prey interactions have become a subject of growing concern. World- wide, the question has been raised on whether there are enough fish to satisfy both the demands of humans and of other top predators such as marine mammals.

  17. epidemiology of single and multiple species of helminth infections ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hi-tech

    2000-03-01

    Mar 1, 2000 ... East African Medical Journal Vol. 77 No. 3 March 2000. EPIDEMIOLOGY OF SINGLE AND MULTIPLE SPECIES OF HELMINTH INFECTIONS AMONG SCHOOL CHILDREN IN BUSIA DISTRICT, KENYA. S. Brooker, MA, Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, University of Oxford, ...

  18. Hybrid-Lambda: simulation of multiple merger and Kingman gene genealogies in species networks and species trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Sha; Degnan, James H; Goldstien, Sharyn J; Eldon, Bjarki

    2015-09-15

    There has been increasing interest in coalescent models which admit multiple mergers of ancestral lineages; and to model hybridization and coalescence simultaneously. Hybrid-Lambda is a software package that simulates gene genealogies under multiple merger and Kingman's coalescent processes within species networks or species trees. Hybrid-Lambda allows different coalescent processes to be specified for different populations, and allows for time to be converted between generations and coalescent units, by specifying a population size for each population. In addition, Hybrid-Lambda can generate simulated datasets, assuming the infinitely many sites mutation model, and compute the F ST statistic. As an illustration, we apply Hybrid-Lambda to infer the time of subdivision of certain marine invertebrates under different coalescent processes. Hybrid-Lambda makes it possible to investigate biogeographic concordance among high fecundity species exhibiting skewed offspring distribution.

  19. Energetics of multiple-ion species hohlraum plasmasa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumayer, P.; Berger, R. L.; Callahan, D.; Divol, L.; Froula, D. H.; London, R. A.; MacGowan, B. J.; Meezan, N. B.; Michel, P. A.; Ross, J. S.; Sorce, C.; Widmann, K.; Suter, L. J.; Glenzer, S. H.

    2008-05-01

    A study of the laser-plasma interaction processes has been performed in multiple-ion species hohlraum plasmas at conditions similar to those expected in indirect drive inertial confinement fusion targets. Gas-filled hohlraums with electron densities of 5.5×1020 and 9×1020cm-3 are heated by 14.3kJ of laser energy (wavelength 351nm) to electron temperatures of 3keV and backscattered laser light is measured. Landau damping of the ion acoustic waves is increased by adding hydrogen to a CO2 or CF4 gas. Stimulated Brillouin backscattering of a 351nm probe beam is found to decrease monotonically with increasing Landau damping, accompanied by a comparable increase in the transmission. More efficient energy coupling into the hohlraum by suppression of backscatter from the heater beams results in an increased hohlraum radiation temperature, showing that multiple-ion species plasmas improve the overall hohlraum energetics. The reduction in backscatter is reproduced by linear gain calculations as well as detailed full-scale three-dimensional laser-plasma interaction simulations, demonstrating that Landau damping is the controlling damping mechanism in inertial confinement fusion relevant high-electron temperature plasmas. These findings have led to the inclusion of multiple-ion species plasmas in the hohlraum point design for upcoming ignition campaigns at the National Ignition Facility.

  20. CARS Spectral Fitting with Multiple Resonant Species using Sparse Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutler, Andrew D.; Magnotti, Gaetano

    2010-01-01

    The dual pump CARS technique is often used in the study of turbulent flames. Fast and accurate algorithms are needed for fitting dual-pump CARS spectra for temperature and multiple chemical species. This paper describes the development of such an algorithm. The algorithm employs sparse libraries, whose size grows much more slowly with number of species than a conventional library. The method was demonstrated by fitting synthetic "experimental" spectra containing 4 resonant species (N2, O2, H2 and CO2), both with noise and without it, and by fitting experimental spectra from a H2-air flame produced by a Hencken burner. In both studies, weighted least squares fitting of signal, as opposed to least squares fitting signal or square-root signal, was shown to produce the least random error and minimize bias error in the fitted parameters.

  1. Modeling Multiple Causes of Carcinogenesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, T D

    1999-01-24

    An array of epidemiological results and databases on test animal indicate that risk of cancer and atherosclerosis can be up- or down-regulated by diet through a range of 200%. Other factors contribute incrementally and include the natural terrestrial environment and various human activities that jointly produce complex exposures to endotoxin-producing microorganisms, ionizing radiations, and chemicals. Ordinary personal habits and simple physical irritants have been demonstrated to affect the immune response and risk of disease. There tends to be poor statistical correlation of long-term risk with single agent exposures incurred throughout working careers. However, Agency recommendations for control of hazardous exposures to humans has been substance-specific instead of contextually realistic even though there is consistent evidence for common mechanisms of toxicological and carcinogenic action. That behavior seems to be best explained by molecular stresses from cellular oxygen metabolism and phagocytosis of antigenic invasion as well as breakdown of normal metabolic compounds associated with homeostatic- and injury-related renewal of cells. There is continually mounting evidence that marrow stroma, comprised largely of monocyte-macrophages and fibroblasts, is important to phagocytic and cytokinetic response, but the complex action of the immune process is difficult to infer from first-principle logic or biomarkers of toxic injury. The many diverse database studies all seem to implicate two important processes, i.e., the univalent reduction of molecular oxygen and breakdown of aginuine, an amino acid, by hydrolysis or digestion of protein which is attendant to normal antigen-antibody action. This behavior indicates that protection guidelines and risk coefficients should be context dependent to include reference considerations of the composite action of parameters that mediate oxygen metabolism. A logic of this type permits the realistic common-scale modeling of

  2. Codivergence and multiple host species use by fig wasp populations of the Ficus pollination mutualism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McLeish Michael J

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The interaction between insects and plants takes myriad forms in the generation of spectacular diversity. In this association a species host range is fundamental and often measured using an estimate of phylogenetic concordance between species. Pollinating fig wasps display extreme host species specificity, but the intraspecific variation in empirical accounts of host affiliation has previously been underestimated. In this investigation, lineage delimitation and codiversification tests are used to generate and discuss hypotheses elucidating on pollinating fig wasp associations with Ficus. Results Statistical parsimony and AMOVA revealed deep divergences at the COI locus within several pollinating fig wasp species that persist on the same host Ficus species. Changes in branching patterns estimated using the generalized mixed Yule coalescent test indicated lineage duplication on the same Ficus species. Conversely, Elisabethiella and Alfonsiella fig wasp species are able to reproduce on multiple, but closely related host fig species. Tree reconciliation tests indicate significant codiversification as well as significant incongruence between fig wasp and Ficus phylogenies. Conclusions The findings demonstrate more relaxed pollinating fig wasp host specificity than previously appreciated. Evolutionarily conservative host associations have been tempered by horizontal transfer and lineage duplication among closely related Ficus species. Independent and asynchronistic diversification of pollinating fig wasps is best explained by a combination of both sympatric and allopatric models of speciation. Pollinator host preference constraints permit reproduction on closely related Ficus species, but uncertainty of the frequency and duration of these associations requires better resolution.

  3. Multiple Imputation Strategies for Multiple Group Structural Equation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enders, Craig K.; Gottschall, Amanda C.

    2011-01-01

    Although structural equation modeling software packages use maximum likelihood estimation by default, there are situations where one might prefer to use multiple imputation to handle missing data rather than maximum likelihood estimation (e.g., when incorporating auxiliary variables). The selection of variables is one of the nuances associated…

  4. Multiple factors and thresholds explaining fish species distributions in lowland streams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Trigal

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate restoration and conservation measures require a good understanding of the factors limiting the distribution of species, the presence of steep changes in the distribution along environmental gradients and the effect of environmental interactions on species distribution. We used 12 environmental variables describing connectivity, hydrology, climate and stream morphology, to model the distributions of 17 fish species from 2005 Swedish stream sites that were sampled between 2000 and 2011. Modeling was performed using boosted regression trees and random forest, two machine learning techniques to assess the relationship between species distributions and their environment. Temperature, width and connectivity (minimum distance to lake or the sea and water discharge, were the most important variables explaining changes in species distribution at large spatial scales. Response curves of fitted occurrence probabilities along predictors often showed abrupt changes, however, clear threshold effects were difficult to detect. Our results show also differences across species and even in the outcomes of the two algorithms, implying that a simultaneous assessment of multiple species may provide a better signal of ecosystem change than the use of surrogate species.

  5. Endangered species toxicity extrapolation using ICE models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Research Council’s (NRC) report on assessing pesticide risks to threatened and endangered species (T&E) included the recommendation of using interspecies correlation models (ICE) as an alternative to general safety factors for extrapolating across species. ...

  6. Recombination in liquid filled ionisation chambers with multiple charge carrier species: Theoretical and numerical results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguiar, P.; González-Castaño, D.M.; Gómez, F.; Pardo-Montero, J.

    2014-01-01

    Liquid-filled ionisation chambers (LICs) are used in radiotherapy for dosimetry and quality assurance. Volume recombination can be quite important in LICs for moderate dose rates, causing non-linearities in the dose rate response of these detectors, and needs to be corrected for. This effect is usually described with Greening and Boag models for continuous and pulsed radiation respectively. Such models assume that the charge is carried by two different species, positive and negative ions, each of those species with a given mobility. However, LICs operating in non-ultrapure mode can contain different types of electronegative impurities with different mobilities, thus increasing the number of different charge carriers. If this is the case, Greening and Boag models can be no longer valid and need to be reformulated. In this work we present a theoretical and numerical study of volume recombination in parallel-plate LICs with multiple charge carrier species, extending Boag and Greening models. Results from a recent publication that reported three different mobilities in an isooctane-filled LIC have been used to study the effect of extra carrier species on recombination. We have found that in pulsed beams the inclusion of extra mobilities does not affect volume recombination much, a behaviour that was expected because Boag formula for charge collection efficiency does not depend on the mobilities of the charge carriers if the Debye relationship between mobilities and recombination constant holds. This is not the case in continuous radiation, where the presence of extra charge carrier species significantly affects the amount of volume recombination. - Highlights: • Analytical extension of Greening and Boag theories to multiple charge carriers. • Detailed numerical study of process of volume recombination in LICs. • Recombination in pulsed beams is independent of number and mobilities of carriers. • Multiple charge carriers have a significant effect in continuous

  7. Functional multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Zoh, Roger S; Bazer, Fuller W; Wu, Guoyao; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-05-08

    Objective measures of oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production by mammals are used to predict their energy expenditure. Since energy expenditure is not directly observable, it can be viewed as a latent construct with multiple physical indirect measures such as respiratory quotient, volumetric oxygen consumption, and volumetric carbon dioxide production. Metabolic rate is defined as the rate at which metabolism occurs in the body. Metabolic rate is also not directly observable. However, heat is produced as a result of metabolic processes within the body. Therefore, metabolic rate can be approximated by heat production plus some errors. While energy expenditure and metabolic rates are correlated, they are not equivalent. Energy expenditure results from physical function, while metabolism can occur within the body without the occurrence of physical activities. In this manuscript, we present a novel approach for studying the relationship between metabolic rate and indicators of energy expenditure. We do so by extending our previous work on MIMIC ME models to allow responses that are sparsely observed functional data, defining the sparse functional multiple indicators, multiple cause measurement error (FMIMIC ME) models. The mean curves in our proposed methodology are modeled using basis splines. A novel approach for estimating the variance of the classical measurement error based on functional principal components is presented. The model parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm and a discussion of the model's identifiability is provided. We show that the defined model is not a trivial extension of longitudinal or functional data methods, due to the presence of the latent construct. Results from its application to data collected on Zucker diabetic fatty rats are provided. Simulation results investigating the properties of our approach are also presented. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cribbie, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    Researchers conducting structural equation modeling analyses rarely, if ever, control for the inflated probability of Type I errors when evaluating the statistical significance of multiple parameters in a model. In this study, the Type I error control, power and true model rates of famsilywise and false discovery rate controlling procedures were…

  9. Genomic resources for multiple species in the Drosophila ananassae species group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signor, Sarah; Seher, Thaddeus; Kopp, Artyom

    2013-01-01

    The development of genomic resources in non-model taxa is essential for understanding the genetic basis of biological diversity. Although the genomes of many Drosophila species have been sequenced, most of the phenotypic diversity in this genus remains to be explored. To facilitate the genetic analysis of interspecific and intraspecific variation, we have generated new genomic resources for seven species and subspecies in the D. ananassae species subgroup. We have generated large amounts of transcriptome sequence data for D. ercepeae, D. merina, D. bipectinata, D. malerkotliana malerkotliana, D. m. pallens, D. pseudoananassae pseudoananassae, and D. p. nigrens. de novo assembly resulted in contigs covering more than half of the predicted transcriptome and matching an average of 59% of annotated genes in the complete genome of D. ananassae. Most contigs, corresponding to an average of 49% of D. ananassae genes, contain sequence polymorphisms that can be used as genetic markers. Subsets of these markers were validated by genotyping the progeny of inter- and intraspecific crosses. The ananassae subgroup is an excellent model system for examining the molecular basis of speciation and phenotypic evolution. The new genomic resources will facilitate the genetic analysis of inter- and intraspecific differences in this lineage. Transcriptome sequencing provides a simple and cost-effective way to identify molecular markers at nearly single-gene density, and is equally applicable to any non-model taxa.

  10. Stochastic species abundance models involving special copulas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huillet, Thierry E.

    2018-01-01

    Copulas offer a very general tool to describe the dependence structure of random variables supported by the hypercube. Inspired by problems of species abundances in Biology, we study three distinct toy models where copulas play a key role. In a first one, a Marshall-Olkin copula arises in a species extinction model with catastrophe. In a second one, a quasi-copula problem arises in a flagged species abundance model. In a third model, we study completely random species abundance models in the hypercube as those, not of product type, with uniform margins and singular. These can be understood from a singular copula supported by an inflated simplex. An exchangeable singular Dirichlet copula is also introduced, together with its induced completely random species abundance vector.

  11. Functional responses of cougars (Puma concolor) in a multiple prey-species system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soria-Díaz, Leroy; Fowler, Mike S; Monroy-Vilchis, Octavio; Oro, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    The study of predator-prey interactions is commonly analyzed using functional responses to gain an understanding of predation patterns and the impact they have on prey populations. Despite this, little is known about predator-prey systems with multiple prey species in sites near the equator. Here we studied the functional response of cougars (Puma concolor) in relation to their main prey, armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), coati (Nasua narica) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Between 2004 and 2010, cougar scats were collected along 5 transects to estimate the consumption of different prey species. A relative abundance index (RAI) was calculated for each prey species and cougar using 18 camera traps. We compared Holling type I, II and III functional response models to determine patterns in prey consumption based on the relative abundance and biomass of each prey species consumed. The 3 main prey species comprised 55% (armadillo), 17% (coati) and 8% (white-tailed deer) of the diet. Type I and II functional responses described consumption of the 2 most common prey species armadillos and coati similarly well, while a type I response best characterized consumption of white-tailed deer. A negative correlation between the proportions of armadillo versus coati and white-tailed deer biomass in cougar scats suggests switching to consume alternative prey, confirming high foraging plasticity of this carnivore. This work represents one of the few studies to compare functional responses across multiple prey species, combined with evidence for prey-switching at low densities of preferred prey. © 2017 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  12. Large roads reduce bat activity across multiple species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitzes, Justin; Merenlender, Adina

    2014-01-01

    Although the negative impacts of roads on many terrestrial vertebrate and bird populations are well documented, there have been few studies of the road ecology of bats. To examine the effects of large roads on bat populations, we used acoustic recorders to survey bat activity along ten 300 m transects bordering three large highways in northern California, applying a newly developed statistical classifier to identify recorded calls to the species level. Nightly counts of bat passes were analyzed with generalized linear mixed models to determine the relationship between bat activity and distance from a road. Total bat activity recorded at points adjacent to roads was found to be approximately one-half the level observed at 300 m. Statistically significant road effects were also found for the Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis), big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus), hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus), and silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans). The road effect was found to be temperature dependent, with hot days both increasing total activity at night and reducing the difference between activity levels near and far from roads. These results suggest that the environmental impacts of road construction may include degradation of bat habitat and that mitigation activities for this habitat loss may be necessary to protect bat populations.

  13. Mapping vulnerability of multiple aquifers using multiple models and fuzzy logic to objectively derive model structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiri, Ata Allah; Sedghi, Zahra; Khatibi, Rahman; Gharekhani, Maryam

    2017-09-01

    Driven by contamination risks, mapping Vulnerability Indices (VI) of multiple aquifers (both unconfined and confined) is investigated by integrating the basic DRASTIC framework with multiple models overarched by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The DRASTIC framework is a proactive tool to assess VI values using the data from the hydrosphere, lithosphere and anthroposphere. However, a research case arises for the application of multiple models on the ground of poor determination coefficients between the VI values and non-point anthropogenic contaminants. The paper formulates SCFL models, which are derived from the multiple model philosophy of Supervised Committee (SC) machines and Fuzzy Logic (FL) and hence SCFL as their integration. The Fuzzy Logic-based (FL) models include: Sugeno Fuzzy Logic (SFL), Mamdani Fuzzy Logic (MFL), Larsen Fuzzy Logic (LFL) models. The basic DRASTIC framework uses prescribed rating and weighting values based on expert judgment but the four FL-based models (SFL, MFL, LFL and SCFL) derive their values as per internal strategy within these models. The paper reports that FL and multiple models improve considerably on the correlation between the modeled vulnerability indices and observed nitrate-N values and as such it provides evidence that the SCFL multiple models can be an alternative to the basic framework even for multiple aquifers. The study area with multiple aquifers is in Varzeqan plain, East Azerbaijan, northwest Iran. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Multiple Model Approaches to Modelling and Control,

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    appeal in building systems which operate robustly over a wide range of operating conditions by decomposing them into a number of simplerlinear modelling or control problems, even for nonlinear modelling or control problems. This appeal has been a factor in the development of increasinglypopular `local...... to problems in the process industries, biomedical applications and autonomoussystems. The successful application of the ideas to demanding problems is already encouraging, but creative development of the basic framework isneeded to better allow the integration of human knowledge with automated learning....... The underlying question is `How should we partition the system - what is `local'?'. This book presents alternative ways of bringing submodels together,which lead to varying levels of performance and insight. Some are further developed for autonomous learning of parameters from data, while others havefocused...

  15. Design of Xen Hybrid Multiple Police Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Lin, Renhao; Zhu, Xianwei

    2017-10-01

    Virtualization Technology has attracted more and more attention. As a popular open-source virtualization tools, XEN is used more and more frequently. Xsm, XEN security model, has also been widespread concern. The safety status classification has not been established in the XSM, and it uses the virtual machine as a managed object to make Dom0 a unique administrative domain that does not meet the minimum privilege. According to these questions, we design a Hybrid multiple police model named SV_HMPMD that organically integrates multiple single security policy models include DTE,RBAC,BLP. It can fullfill the requirement of confidentiality and integrity for security model and use different particle size to different domain. In order to improve BLP’s practicability, the model introduce multi-level security labels. In order to divide the privilege in detail, we combine DTE with RBAC. In order to oversize privilege, we limit the privilege of domain0.

  16. New trends in species distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

  17. Finessing atlas data for species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niamir, A.; Skidmore, A.K.; Toxopeus, A.G.; Munoz, A.R.; Real, R.

    2011-01-01

    Aim The spatial resolution of species atlases and therefore resulting model predictions are often too coarse for local applications. Collecting distribution data at a finer resolution for large numbers of species requires a comprehensive sampling effort, making it impractical and expensive. This

  18. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    In geosciences, as well as in astrophysics, direct observations of a studied physical system and objects are not always accessible. Instead, indirect observations have to be used in order to obtain information about the unknown system, which leads to an inverse problem. Such geoscientific inverse....... Finally, the probabilistic formulation provides a means of analyzing uncertainties and potential multiple-scenario solutions to be used for risk assessments in relation to, e.g., reservoir characterization and forecasting. Prior models rely on information from old data sets or expert knowledge in form of......, e.g., training images that expresses structural, lithological, or textural features. Statistics obtained from these types of observations will be referred to as sample models. Geostatistical sampling algorithms use a sample model as input and produce multiple realizations of the model parameters...

  19. Multiple Steps Prediction with Nonlinear ARX Models

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Qinghua; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    NLARX (NonLinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) models are frequently used in black-box nonlinear system identication. Though it is easy to make one step ahead prediction with such models, multiple steps prediction is far from trivial. The main difficulty is that in general there is no easy way to compute the mathematical expectation of an output conditioned by past measurements. An optimal solution would require intensive numerical computations related to nonlinear filltering. The pur...

  20. Identity effects dominate the impacts of multiple species extinctions on the functioning of complex food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Eric; Séguin, Annie; Nozais, Christian; Archambault, Philippe; Gravel, Dominique

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of species extinctions on the functioning of food webs is a challenging task because of the complexity of ecological interactions. We report the impacts of experimental species extinctions on the functioning of two food webs of freshwater and marine systems. We used a linear model to partition the variance among the multiple components of the diversity effect (linear group richness, nonlinear group richness, and identity). The identity of each functional group was the best explaining variable of ecosystem functioning for both systems. We assessed the contribution of each functional group in multifunctional space and found that, although the effect of functional group varied across ecosystem functions, some functional groups shared common effects on functions. This study is the first experimental demonstration that functional identity dominates the effects of extinctions on ecosystem functioning, suggesting that generalizations are possible despite the inherent complexity of interactions.

  1. Occupancy Estimation and Modeling : Inferring Patterns and Dynamics of Species Occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Pollock, K.H.; Bailey, L.L.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    This is the first book to examine the latest methods in analyzing presence/absence data surveys. Using four classes of models (single-species, single-season; single-species, multiple season; multiple-species, single-season; and multiple-species, multiple-season), the authors discuss the practical sampling situation, present a likelihood-based model enabling direct estimation of the occupancy-related parameters while allowing for imperfect detectability, and make recommendations for designing studies using these models. It provides authoritative insights into the latest in estimation modeling; discusses multiple models which lay the groundwork for future study designs; addresses critical issues of imperfect detectibility and its effects on estimation; and explores the role of probability in estimating in detail.

  2. Multiple-level defect species evaluation from average carrier decay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debuf, Didier

    2003-10-01

    An expression for the average decay is determined by solving the the carrier continuity equations, which include terms for multiple defect recombination. This expression is the decay measured by techniques such as the contactless photoconductance decay method, which determines the average or volume integrated decay. Implicit in the above is the requirement for good surface passivation such that only bulk properties are observed. A proposed experimental configuration is given to achieve the intended goal of an assessment of the type of defect in an n-type Czochralski-grown silicon semiconductor with an unusually high relative lifetime. The high lifetime is explained in terms of a ground excited state multiple-level defect system. Also, minority carrier trapping is investigated.

  3. Impact of Vertical Canopy Position on Leaf Spectral Properties and Traits across Multiple Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tawanda W. Gara

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the vertical pattern of leaf traits across plant canopies provide critical information on plant physiology, ecosystem functioning and structure and vegetation response to climate change. However, the impact of vertical canopy position on leaf spectral properties and subsequently leaf traits across the entire spectrum for multiple species is poorly understood. In this study, we examined the ability of leaf optical properties to track variability in leaf traits across the vertical canopy profile using Partial Least Square Discriminatory Analysis (PLS-DA. Leaf spectral measurements together with leaf traits (nitrogen, carbon, chlorophyll, equivalent water thickness and specific leaf area were studied at three vertical canopy positions along the plant stem: lower, middle and upper. We observed that foliar nitrogen (N, chlorophyll (Cab, carbon (C, and equivalent water thickness (EWT were higher in the upper canopy leaves compared with lower shaded leaves, while specific leaf area (SLA increased from upper to lower canopy leaves. We found that leaf spectral reflectance significantly (P ≤ 0.05 shifted to longer wavelengths in the ‘red edge’ spectrum (685–701 nm in the order of lower > middle > upper for the pooled dataset. We report that spectral bands that are influential in the discrimination of leaf samples into the three groups of canopy position, based on the PLS-DA variable importance projection (VIP score, match with wavelength regions of foliar traits observed to vary across the canopy vertical profile. This observation demonstrated that both leaf traits and leaf reflectance co-vary across the vertical canopy profile in multiple species. We conclude that canopy vertical position has a significant impact on leaf spectral properties of an individual plant’s traits, and this finding holds for multiple species. These findings have important implications on field sampling protocols, upscaling leaf traits to canopy level

  4. Simplifying biochemical models with intermediate species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feliu, Elisenda; Wiuf, Carsten

    2013-01-01

    Mathematical models are increasingly being used to understand complex biochemical systems, to analyse experimental data and make predictions about unobserved quantities. However, we rarely know how robust our conclusions are with respect to the choice and uncertainties of the model. Using algebraic......-state concentrations of the species in the core model, after suitable matching of parameters. Importantly, our results provide guidelines to the modeller in choosing between models and in distinguishing their properties. Further, our work provides a formal way of comparing models that share a common skeleton....

  5. Spontaneous motor entrainment to music in multiple vocal mimicking species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schachner, Adena; Brady, Timothy F; Pepperberg, Irene M; Hauser, Marc D

    2009-05-26

    The human capacity for music consists of certain core phenomena, including the tendency to entrain, or align movement, to an external auditory pulse [1-3]. This ability, fundamental both for music production and for coordinated dance, has been repeatedly highlighted as uniquely human [4-11]. However, it has recently been hypothesized that entrainment evolved as a by-product of vocal mimicry, generating the strong prediction that only vocal mimicking animals may be able to entrain [12, 13]. Here we provide comparative data demonstrating the existence of two proficient vocal mimicking nonhuman animals (parrots) that entrain to music, spontaneously producing synchronized movements resembling human dance. We also provide an extensive comparative data set from a global video database systematically analyzed for evidence of entrainment in hundreds of species both capable and incapable of vocal mimicry. Despite the higher representation of vocal nonmimics in the database and comparable exposure of mimics and nonmimics to humans and music, only vocal mimics showed evidence of entrainment. We conclude that entrainment is not unique to humans and that the distribution of entrainment across species supports the hypothesis that entrainment evolved as a by-product of selection for vocal mimicry.

  6. Integrating multiple evidences in taxonomy: species diversity and phylogeny of mustached bats (Mormoopidae: Pteronotus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavan, Ana Carolina; Marroig, Gabriel

    2016-10-01

    A phylogenetic systematic perspective is instrumental in recovering new species and their evolutionary relationships. The advent of new technologies for molecular and morphological data acquisition and analysis, allied to the integration of knowledge from different areas, such as ecology and population genetics, allows for the emergence of more rigorous, accurate and complete scientific hypothesis on species diversity. Mustached bats (genus Pteronotus) are a good model for the application of this integrative approach. They are a widely distributed and a morphologically homogeneous group, but comprising species with remarkable differences in their echolocation strategy and feeding behavior. The latest systematic review suggested six species with 17 subspecies in Pteronotus. Subsequent studies using discrete morphological characters supported the same arrangement. However, recent papers reported high levels of genetic divergence among conspecific taxa followed by bioacoustic and geographic agreement, suggesting an underestimated diversity in the genus. To date, no study merging genetic evidences and morphometric variation along the entire geographic range of this group has been attempted. Based on a comprehensive sampling including representatives of all current taxonomic units, we attempt to delimit species in Pteronotus through the application of multiple methodologies and hierarchically distinct datasets. The molecular approach includes six molecular markers from three genetic transmission systems; morphological investigations used 41 euclidean distances estimated through three-dimensional landmarks collected from 1628 skulls. The phylogenetic analysis reveals a greater diversity than previously reported, with a high correspondence among the genetic lineages and the currently recognized subspecies in the genus. Discriminant analysis of variables describing size and shape of cranial bones support the rising of the genetic groups to the specific status. Based on

  7. Model selection in Bayesian segmentation of multiple DNA alignments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldmeadow, Christopher; Keith, Jonathan M

    2011-03-01

    The analysis of multiple sequence alignments is allowing researchers to glean valuable insights into evolution, as well as identify genomic regions that may be functional, or discover novel classes of functional elements. Understanding the distribution of conservation levels that constitutes the evolutionary landscape is crucial to distinguishing functional regions from non-functional. Recent evidence suggests that a binary classification of evolutionary rates is inappropriate for this purpose and finds only highly conserved functional elements. Given that the distribution of evolutionary rates is multi-modal, determining the number of modes is of paramount concern. Through simulation, we evaluate the performance of a number of information criterion approaches derived from MCMC simulations in determining the dimension of a model. We utilize a deviance information criterion (DIC) approximation that is more robust than the approximations from other information criteria, and show our information criteria approximations do not produce superfluous modes when estimating conservation distributions under a variety of circumstances. We analyse the distribution of conservation for a multiple alignment comprising four primate species and mouse, and repeat this on two additional multiple alignments of similar species. We find evidence of six distinct classes of evolutionary rates that appear to be robust to the species used. Source code and data are available at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/477240/changept.zip.

  8. Modelling community dynamics based on species-level abundance models from detection/nondetection data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Kuboi, Kouji; Tada, Tsuneo; Ikeno, Susumu; Makino, Shun'ichi

    2011-01-01

    1. In large-scale field surveys, a binary recording of each species' detection or nondetection has been increasingly adopted for its simplicity and low cost. Because of the importance of abundance in many studies, it is desirable to obtain inferences about abundance at species-, functional group-, and community-levels from such binary data. 2. We developed a novel hierarchical multi-species abundance model based on species-level detection/nondetection data. The model accounts for the existence of undetected species, and variability in abundance and detectability among species. Species-level detection/nondetection is linked to species- level abundance via a detection model that accommodates the expectation that probability of detection (at least one individuals is detected) increases with local abundance of the species. We applied this model to a 9-year dataset composed of the detection/nondetection of forest birds, at a single post-fire site (from 7 to 15 years after fire) in a montane area of central Japan. The model allocated undetected species into one of the predefined functional groups by assuming a prior distribution on individual group membership. 3. The results suggest that 15–20 species were missed in each year, and that species richness of communities and functional groups did not change with post-fire forest succession. Overall abundance of birds and abundance of functional groups tended to increase over time, although only in the winter, while decreases in detectabilities were observed in several species. 4. Synthesis and applications. Understanding and prediction of large-scale biodiversity dynamics partly hinge on how we can use data effectively. Our hierarchical model for detection/nondetection data estimates abundance in space/time at species-, functional group-, and community-levels while accounting for undetected individuals and species. It also permits comparison of multiple communities by many types of abundance-based diversity and similarity

  9. Fungal species and multiple mycotoxin contamination of cultivated forage crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina Kononenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The quality of grass samples used for animal feed by combining mycotoxin measures and mycological determination of mycobiota were explored. The samples of the plant material were collected in 2014 in two stages: before the first mowing (May–June and before the second one (July–August from the fields of stock-farms located in northwestern part of the Russia. All samples were divided into three types: grasses, mixture of different grasses and clover, alfalfa mixed with timothy. The occurrence of aflatoxin B1, alternariol, citrinin, cyclopiazonic acid, deoxynivalenol, diacetoxyscirpenol, emodin, ergot alkaloids, fumonisins, mycophenolic acid, ochratoxin A, PR-toxin, roridin A, sterigmatocystin, T-2 toxin, and zearalenone were determined using ELISA. The multiple fungal and mycotoxin contaminations are already formed in plant tissues by the moment of first mowing. The complexes of mycotoxins including up to 14–16 components and the combined character of plant contamination quite correspond to the taxonomic variety of mycobiota.

  10. Spatial Multiplication Model as an alternative to the Point Model in Neutron Multiplicity Counting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hauck, Danielle K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Henzl, Vladimir [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-03-26

    The point model is commonly used in neutron multiplicity counting to relate the correlated neutron detection rates (singles, doubles, triples) to item properties (mass, (α,n) reaction rate and neutron multiplication). The point model assumes that the probability that a neutron will induce fission is a constant across the physical extent of the item. However, in reality, neutrons near the center of an item have a greater probability of inducing fission then items near the edges. As a result, the neutron multiplication has a spatial distribution.

  11. Evaluation of a multiple-species approach to monitoring species at the ecoregional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia N. Manley; William J. Zielinski; Matthew D. Schlesinger; Sylvia R. Mori

    2004-01-01

    Monitoring is required of land managers and conservation practitioners to assess the success of management actions. "Shortcuts" are sought to reduce monitoring costs, most often consisting of the selection of a small number of species that are closely monitored to represent the status of many associated species and environmental correlates. Assumptions...

  12. The Pleurobemini (Bivalvia: Unionida) revisited: Molecular species delineation using a mitochondrial DNA gene reveals multiple conspecifics and undescribed species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Kentaro; Hayes, David M.; Harris, John L.; Johnson, Nathan A.; Morrison, Cheryl L.; Eackles, Michael S.; King, Tim; Jones, Jess W.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Christian, Alan D.; Randklev, Charles R.

    2018-01-01

    The Pleurobemini (Bivalvia: Unionida) represent approximately one-third of freshwater mussel diversity in North America. Species identification within this group is challenging due to morphological convergence and phenotypic plasticity. Accurate species identification, including characterization of currently unrecognized taxa, is required to develop effective conservation strategies because many species in the group are imperiled. We examined 573 cox1 sequences from 110 currently recognized species (including 13 Fusconaia and 21 Pleurobema species) to understand phylogenetic relationships among pleurobemine species (mainly Fusconaia and Pleurobema) and to delineate species boundaries. The results of phylogenetic analyses showed no geographic structure within widespread species and illustrated a close relationship between Elliptio lanceolata and Parvaspina collina. Constraint tests supported monophyly of the genera Fusconaia and Pleurobema, including the subgenus P. (Sintoxia). Furthermore, results revealed multiple conspecifics, including P. hanleyianum and P. troschelianum, P. chattanoogaense and P. decisum, P. clava and P. oviforme, P. rubrum and P. sintoxia, F. askewi and F. lananensis, and F. cerina and F. flava. Species delimitation analyses identified three currently unrecognized taxa (two in Fusconaia and one in Pleurobema). Further investigation using additional genetic markers and other lines of evidence (e.g., morphology, life history, ecology) are necessary before any taxonomic changes are formalized.

  13. Multiple model adaptive control with mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Matthew

    Despite the remarkable theoretical accomplishments and successful applications of adaptive control, the field is not sufficiently mature to solve challenging control problems requiring strict performance and safety guarantees. Towards addressing these issues, a novel deterministic multiple-model adaptive control approach called adaptive mixing control is proposed. In this approach, adaptation comes from a high-level system called the supervisor that mixes into feedback a number of candidate controllers, each finely-tuned to a subset of the parameter space. The mixing signal, the supervisor's output, is generated by estimating the unknown parameters and, at every instant of time, calculating the contribution level of each candidate controller based on certainty equivalence. The proposed architecture provides two characteristics relevant to solving stringent, performance-driven applications. First, the full-suite of linear time invariant control tools is available. A disadvantage of conventional adaptive control is its restriction to utilizing only those control laws whose solutions can be feasibly computed in real-time, such as model reference and pole-placement type controllers. Because its candidate controllers are computed off line, the proposed approach suffers no such restriction. Second, the supervisor's output is smooth and does not necessarily depend on explicit a priori knowledge of the disturbance model. These characteristics can lead to improved performance by avoiding the unnecessary switching and chattering behaviors associated with some other multiple adaptive control approaches. The stability and robustness properties of the adaptive scheme are analyzed. It is shown that the mean-square regulation error is of the order of the modeling error. And when the parameter estimate converges to its true value, which is guaranteed if a persistence of excitation condition is satisfied, the adaptive closed-loop system converges exponentially fast to a closed

  14. Multiple start codons and phosphorylation result in discrete Rad52 protein species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Mayolo, A.A.; Lisby, M.; Erdeniz, N.

    2006-01-01

    The sequence of the Saccharomyces cerevisiae RAD52 gene contains five potential translation start sites and protein-blot analysis typically detects multiple Rad52 species with different electrophoretic mobilities. Here we define the gene products encoded by RAD52. We show that the multiple Rad52 ...

  15. BLT-MS (Breach, Leach, and Transport -- Multiple Species) data input guide. A computer model for simulating release of contaminants from a subsurface low-level waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.; Kinsey, R.R.; Aronson, A.; Divadeenam, M.; MacKinnon, R.J.

    1996-11-01

    The BLT-MS computer code has been developed, implemented, and tested. BLT-MS is a two-dimensional finite element computer code capable of simulating the time evolution of concentration resulting from the time-dependent release and transport of aqueous phase species in a subsurface soil system. BLT-MS contains models to simulate the processes (water flow, container degradation, waste form performance, transport, and radioactive production and decay) most relevant to estimating the release and transport of contaminants from a subsurface disposal system. Water flow is simulated through tabular input or auxiliary files. Container degradation considers localized failure due to pitting corrosion and general failure due to uniform surface degradation processes. Waste form performance considers release to be limited by one of four mechanisms: rinse with partitioning, diffusion, uniform surface degradation, or solubility. Radioactive production and decay in the waste form are simulated. Transport considers the processes of advection, dispersion, diffusion, radioactive production and decay, reversible linear sorption, and sources (waste forms releases). To improve the usefulness of BLT-MS a preprocessor, BLTMSIN, which assists in the creation of input files, and a post-processor, BLTPLOT, which provides a visual display of the data have been developed. This document reviews the models implemented in BLT-MS and serves as a guide to creating input files for BLT-MS

  16. BLT-MS (Breach, Leach, and Transport -- Multiple Species) data input guide. A computer model for simulating release of contaminants from a subsurface low-level waste disposal facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.M.; Kinsey, R.R.; Aronson, A.; Divadeenam, M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); MacKinnon, R.J. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)]|[Ecodynamics Research Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-11-01

    The BLT-MS computer code has been developed, implemented, and tested. BLT-MS is a two-dimensional finite element computer code capable of simulating the time evolution of concentration resulting from the time-dependent release and transport of aqueous phase species in a subsurface soil system. BLT-MS contains models to simulate the processes (water flow, container degradation, waste form performance, transport, and radioactive production and decay) most relevant to estimating the release and transport of contaminants from a subsurface disposal system. Water flow is simulated through tabular input or auxiliary files. Container degradation considers localized failure due to pitting corrosion and general failure due to uniform surface degradation processes. Waste form performance considers release to be limited by one of four mechanisms: rinse with partitioning, diffusion, uniform surface degradation, or solubility. Radioactive production and decay in the waste form are simulated. Transport considers the processes of advection, dispersion, diffusion, radioactive production and decay, reversible linear sorption, and sources (waste forms releases). To improve the usefulness of BLT-MS a preprocessor, BLTMSIN, which assists in the creation of input files, and a post-processor, BLTPLOT, which provides a visual display of the data have been developed. This document reviews the models implemented in BLT-MS and serves as a guide to creating input files for BLT-MS.

  17. Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B

    2015-07-01

    Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  18. Challenges in Species Tree Estimation Under the Multispecies Coalescent Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Bo; Yang, Ziheng

    2016-12-01

    The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model has emerged as a powerful framework for inferring species phylogenies while accounting for ancestral polymorphism and gene tree-species tree conflict. A number of methods have been developed in the past few years to estimate the species tree under the MSC. The full likelihood methods (including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference) average over the unknown gene trees and accommodate their uncertainties properly but involve intensive computation. The approximate or summary coalescent methods are computationally fast and are applicable to genomic datasets with thousands of loci, but do not make an efficient use of information in the multilocus data. Most of them take the two-step approach of reconstructing the gene trees for multiple loci by phylogenetic methods and then treating the estimated gene trees as observed data, without accounting for their uncertainties appropriately. In this article we review the statistical nature of the species tree estimation problem under the MSC, and explore the conceptual issues and challenges of species tree estimation by focusing mainly on simple cases of three or four closely related species. We use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to demonstrate that large differences in statistical performance may exist between the two classes of methods. We illustrate that several counterintuitive behaviors may occur with the summary methods but they are due to inefficient use of information in the data by summary methods and vanish when the data are analyzed using full-likelihood methods. These include (i) unidentifiability of parameters in the model, (ii) inconsistency in the so-called anomaly zone, (iii) singularity on the likelihood surface, and (iv) deterioration of performance upon addition of more data. We discuss the challenges and strategies of species tree inference for distantly related species when the molecular clock is violated, and highlight the need for improving the

  19. Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Marske, Katharine Ann

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i...... the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia in biogeography and evolution, especially in Europe, but also in many other regions. SDM-based approaches are also beginning to contribute to a suite of other research questions, such as historical constraints on current distributions and diversity patterns, the end...

  20. Molecular evidence for high frequency of multiple paternity in a freshwater shrimp species Caridina ensifera.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gen Hua Yue

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Molecular genetic analyses of parentage provide insights into mating systems. Although there are 22,000 members in Malacostraca, not much has been known about mating systems in Malacostraca. The freshwater shrimp Caridina ensifera blue, is a new species belonging to Malacostraca which was discovered recently in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Due to its small body size and low fecundity, this species is an ideal species to study the occurrence and frequency of multiple paternity and to understand of how the low fecundity species persist and evolve.In this study, we developed four polymorphic microsatellites from C. ensifera and applied them to investigate the occurrence and frequency of multiple paternity in 20 C. ensifera broods caught from Lake Matano, Sulawesi. By genotyping the mother and all offspring from each brood we discovered multiple paternity in all 20 broods. In most of the 20 broods, fathers contributed skewed numbers of offspring and there was an apparent inverse correlation between reproductive success of sires and their relatedness to mothers.Our results in combination with recent reports on multiple paternity in crayfish, crab and lobster species suggests that multiple paternity is common in Malacostraca. Skewed contribution of fathers to the numbers of offspring and inverse correlation between reproductive success of sires and their relatedness to mothers suggest that sperm competition occurred and/or pre- and postcopulatory female choice happen, which may be important for avoiding the occurrence of inbreeding and optimize genetic variation in offspring and for persistence and evolution of low fecundity species.

  1. Comparison of grouper infection with two different iridoviruses using transcriptome sequencing and multiple reference species selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chun-Cheng; Ho, Li-Ping; Yang, Cin-Hang; Kao, Tsung-Yu; Chou, Hsin-Yiu; Pai, Tun-Wen

    2017-12-01

    Due to high-density aquafarming in Taiwan, groupers are commonly infected with two different iridoviruses: Megalocytivirus (grouper iridovirus of Taiwan, TGIV) and Ranavirus (grouper iridovirus, GIV). Iridoviral diseases cause mass mortality, and surviving fish retain these pathogens, which can then be horizontally transferred. These viruses have therefore become a major challenge for grouper aquaculture. In this study, comparisons of the biological responses of groupers to infection with these two different iridoviruses were performed. A novel approach for transcriptomic analysis was proposed to enhance the discovery of differentially expressed genes and associated biological pathways. In this method, suitable and available reference species are selected from the NCBI taxonomy tree and the Ensembl and KEGG databases instead of either choosing only one model species or adopting the NCBI non-redundant dataset as references. Our results show that selection of multiple appropriate model species as references increases the efficiency and performance of analyses compared to those of traditional approaches. Using this method, 17 shared pathways and 5 specific pathways were found to be significantly differentially expressed following infection with the two iridoviruses, among which 11 pathways were additionally identified based on the proposed method of multiple reference species selection. Among the pathways responsive to infection with a specific iridovirus, the spliceosomal pathway (ko03040; p-value = 0.0011) was exclusively associated with TGIV infection, while the glycolysis/gluconeogenesis pathway (ko00010; p-value = 0.0032) was associated with GIV infection. These findings and designed corresponding biological experiments may facilitate a deeper understanding of the mechanisms by which both TGIV and GIV cause fatal infections, as well as the ways in which they induce different pathologies and symptoms. We believe that the proposed novel mechanism for de novo

  2. Model Pembelajaran Berbasis Penstimulasian Multiple Intelligences Siswa

    OpenAIRE

    Edy Legowo

    2017-01-01

    Tulisan ini membahas mengenai penerapan teori multiple intelligences dalam pembelajaran di sekolah. Pembahasan diawali dengan menguraikan perkembangan konsep inteligensi dan multiple intelligences. Diikuti dengan menjelaskan dampak teori multiple intelligences dalam bidang pendidikan dan pembelajaran di sekolah. Bagian selanjutnya menguraikan tentang implementasi teori multiple intelligences dalam praktik pembelajaran di kelas yaitu bagaimana pemberian pengalaman belajar siswa yang difasilita...

  3. The reverse effects of random perturbation on discrete systems for single and multiple population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Li; Tang, Sanyi

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The discrete single species and multiple species models with random perturbation are proposed. • The complex dynamics and interesting bifurcation behavior have been investigated. • The reverse effects of random perturbation on discrete systems have been discussed and revealed. • The main results can be applied for pest control and resources management. - Abstract: The natural species are likely to present several interesting and complex phenomena under random perturbations, which have been confirmed by simple mathematical models. The important questions are: how the random perturbations influence the dynamics of the discrete population models with multiple steady states or multiple species interactions? and is there any different effects for single species and multiple species models with random perturbation? To address those interesting questions, we have proposed the discrete single species model with two stable equilibria and the host-parasitoid model with Holling type functional response functions to address how the random perturbation affects the dynamics. The main results indicate that the random perturbation does not change the number of blurred orbits of the single species model with two stable steady states compared with results for the classical Ricker model with same random perturbation, but it can strength the stability. However, extensive numerical investigations depict that the random perturbation does not influence the complexities of the host-parasitoid models compared with the results for the models without perturbation, while it does increase the period of periodic orbits doubly. All those confirm that the random perturbation has a reverse effect on the dynamics of the discrete single and multiple population models, which could be applied in reality including pest control and resources management.

  4. Invasive species information networks: Collaboration at multiple scales for prevention, early detection, and rapid response to invasive alien species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Annie; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Madsen, John; Westbrooks, Randy G.; Fournier, Christine; Mehrhoff, Les; Browne, Michael; Graham, Jim; Sellers, Elizabeth A.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate analysis of present distributions and effective modeling of future distributions of invasive alien species (IAS) are both highly dependent on the availability and accessibility of occurrence data and natural history information about the species. Invasive alien species monitoring and detection networks (such as the Invasive Plant Atlas of New England and the Invasive Plant Atlas of the MidSouth) generate occurrence data at local and regional levels within the United States, which are shared through the US National Institute of Invasive Species Science. The Inter-American Biodiversity Information Network's Invasives Information Network (I3N), facilitates cooperation on sharing invasive species occurrence data throughout the Western Hemisphere. The I3N and other national and regional networks expose their data globally via the Global Invasive Species Information Network (GISIN). International and interdisciplinary cooperation on data sharing strengthens cooperation on strategies and responses to invasions. However, limitations to effective collaboration among invasive species networks leading to successful early detection and rapid response to invasive species include: lack of interoperability; data accessibility; funding; and technical expertise. This paper proposes various solutions to these obstacles at different geographic levels and briefly describes success stories from the invasive species information networks mentioned above. Using biological informatics to facilitate global information sharing is especially critical in invasive species science, as research has shown that one of the best indicators of the invasiveness of a species is whether it has been invasive elsewhere. Data must also be shared across disciplines because natural history information (e.g. diet, predators, habitat requirements, etc.) about a species in its native range is vital for effective prevention, detection, and rapid response to an invasion. Finally, it has been our

  5. Multiple Temperature Model for Near Continuum Flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    XU, Kun; Liu, Hongwei; Jiang, Jianzheng

    2007-01-01

    In the near continuum flow regime, the flow may have different translational temperatures in different directions. It is well known that for increasingly rarefied flow fields, the predictions from continuum formulation, such as the Navier-Stokes equations, lose accuracy. These inaccuracies may be partially due to the single temperature assumption in the Navier-Stokes equations. Here, based on the gas-kinetic Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK) equation, a multitranslational temperature model is proposed and used in the flow calculations. In order to fix all three translational temperatures, two constraints are additionally proposed to model the energy exchange in different directions. Based on the multiple temperature assumption, the Navier-Stokes relation between the stress and strain is replaced by the temperature relaxation term, and the Navier-Stokes assumption is recovered only in the limiting case when the flow is close to the equilibrium with the same temperature in different directions. In order to validate the current model, both the Couette and Poiseuille flows are studied in the transition flow regime

  6. Model Pembelajaran Berbasis Penstimulasian Multiple Intelligences Siswa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edy Legowo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Tulisan ini membahas mengenai penerapan teori multiple intelligences dalam pembelajaran di sekolah. Pembahasan diawali dengan menguraikan perkembangan konsep inteligensi dan multiple intelligences. Diikuti dengan menjelaskan dampak teori multiple intelligences dalam bidang pendidikan dan pembelajaran di sekolah. Bagian selanjutnya menguraikan tentang implementasi teori multiple intelligences dalam praktik pembelajaran di kelas yaitu bagaimana pemberian pengalaman belajar siswa yang difasilitasi guru dapat menstimulasi multiple intelligences siswa. Evaluasi hasil belajar siswa dari pandangan penerapan teori multiple intelligences seharusnya dilakukan menggunakan authentic assessment dan portofolio yang lebih memfasilitasi para siswa mengungkapkan atau mengaktualisasikan hasil belajarnya melalui berbagai cara sesuai dengan kekuatan jenis inteligensinya.

  7. How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Stephan Gritti

    Full Text Available Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs. However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagussylvatica L., Quercusrobur L. and Pinussylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.

  8. The common marmoset as an indispensable animal model for immunotherapy development in multiple sclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kap, Yolanda S.; Jagessar, S. Anwar; Dunham, Jordon; 't Hart, Bert A.

    New drugs often fail in the translation from the rodent experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) model to human multiple sclerosis (MS). Here, we present the marmoset EAE model as an indispensable model for translational research into MS. The genetic heterogeneity of this species and lifelong

  9. Additive effects of climate and fisheries drive ongoing declines in multiple albatross species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardo, Deborah; Forcada, Jaume; Wood, Andrew G; Tuck, Geoff N; Ireland, Louise; Pradel, Roger; Croxall, John P; Phillips, Richard A

    2017-12-12

    Environmental and anthropogenic factors often drive population declines in top predators, but how their influences may combine remains unclear. Albatrosses are particularly threatened. They breed in fast-changing environments, and their extensive foraging ranges expose them to incidental mortality (bycatch) in multiple fisheries. The albatross community at South Georgia includes globally important populations of three species that have declined by 40-60% over the last 35 years. We used three steps to deeply understand the drivers of such dramatic changes: ( i ) describe fundamental demographic rates using multievent models, ( ii ) determine demographic drivers of population growth using matrix models, and ( iii ) identify environmental and anthropogenic drivers using ANOVAs. Each species was affected by different processes and threats in their foraging areas during the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. There was evidence for two kinds of combined environmental and anthropogenic effects. The first was sequential; in wandering and black-browed albatrosses, high levels of bycatch have reduced juvenile and adult survival, then increased temperature, reduced sea-ice cover, and stronger winds are affecting the population recovery potential. The second was additive; in gray-headed albatrosses, not only did bycatch impact adult survival but also this impact was exacerbated by lower food availability in years following El Niño events. This emphasizes the need for much improved implementation of mitigation measures in fisheries and better enforcement of compliance. We hope our results not only help focus future management actions for these populations but also demonstrate the power of the modelling approach for assessing impacts of environmental and anthropogenic drivers in wild animal populations.

  10. Evaluating supervised machine learning algorithms to predict recreational fishing success : A multiple species, multiple algorithms approach

    OpenAIRE

    Wikström, Johan

    2015-01-01

    This report examines three different machine learning algorithms and their effectiveness for predicting recreational fishing success. Recreational fishing is a huge pastime but reliable methods of predicting fishing success have largely been missing. This report compares random forest, linear regression and multilayer perceptron to a reasonable baseline model for predicting fishing success. Fishing success is defined as the expected weight of the fish caught. Previous reports have mainly focu...

  11. Helping Students Acquainted with Multiplication in Rectangular Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasman, Fridgo; den Hertog, Jaap; Zulkardi; Hartono, Yusuf

    2011-01-01

    Usually, multiplication is introduced to students to represent quantities that come in groups. However there is also rectangular array model which is also related to multiplication. Barmby et al. (2009) has shown that the rectangular model such as array representations encourage students to develop their thinking about multiplication as a binary…

  12. Blends of pheromones, with and without host plant volatiles, can attract multiple species of Cerambycid beetles simultaneously

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.M. Hanks; J.A. Mongold-Diers; T.H. Atkinson; M.K. Fierke; M.D. Ginzel; E.E. Graham; T.M. Poland; A.B. Richards; M.L. Richardson; J.G.. Millar

    2018-01-01

    Pheromone components of cerambycid beetles are often conserved, with a given compound serving as a pheromone component for multiple related species, including species native to different continents. Consequently, a single synthesized compound may attract multiple species to a trap simultaneously. Furthermore, our previous research in east-central Illinois had...

  13. Modeling of Species Transport and Macrosegregation in Heavy Steel Ingots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wensheng; Shen, Houfa; Zhang, Xiong; Liu, Baicheng

    2014-04-01

    In the current study, two significant phenomena involved in heavy steel ingot casting, i.e., species transport and macrosegregation, were numerically simulated. First, a ladle-tundish-mold species transport model describing the entire multiple pouring process of heavy steel ingots was proposed. Carbon distribution and variation in both the tundish and the mold of a 292-ton steel ingot were predicted. Results indicate high carbon concentration in the bottom of the mold while low concentration carbon at the top of mold after the pouring process. Such concentration distribution helps in reducing both negative segregation in the bottom of the solidified ingot and positive segregation at the top. Second, a two-phase multiscale macrosegregation model was used to simulate the solidification process of industrial steel ingots. This model takes into account heat transfer, fluid flow, solute transport, and equiaxed grain motion on a system scale, as well as grain nucleation and growth on a microscopic scale. The model was first used to analyze a three-dimensional industry-scale steel ingot as a benchmark. Then, it was applied to study macrosegregation formation in a 53-ton steel ingot. Macrosegregation predicted by the numerical model was presented and compared with experimental measurements. Typical macrosegregation patterns in heavy steel ingots are found to be well reproduced with the two-phase model.

  14. Using AVIRIS data and multiple-masking techniques to map urban forest trees species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Q. Xiao; S.L. Ustin; E.G. McPherson

    2004-01-01

    Tree type and species information are critical parameters for urban forest management, benefit cost analysis and urban planning. However, traditionally, these parameters have been derived based on limited field samples in urban forest management practice. In this study we used high-resolution Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data and multiple-...

  15. Species delimitation in lemurs: multiple genetic loci reveal low levels of species diversity in the genus Cheirogaleus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasoloarison Rodin M

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Species are viewed as the fundamental unit in most subdisciplines of biology. To conservationists this unit represents the currency for global biodiversity assessments. Even though Madagascar belongs to one of the top eight biodiversity hotspots of the world, the taxonomy of its charismatic lemuriform primates is not stable. Within the last 25 years, the number of described lemur species has more than doubled, with many newly described species identified among the nocturnal and small-bodied cheirogaleids. Here, we characterize the diversity of the dwarf lemurs (genus Cheirogaleus and assess the status of the seven described species, based on phylogenetic and population genetic analysis of mtDNA (cytb + cox2 and three nuclear markers (adora3, fiba and vWF. Results This study identified three distinct evolutionary lineages within the genus Cheirogaleus. Population genetic cluster analyses revealed a further layer of population divergence with six distinct genotypic clusters. Conclusion Based on the general metapopulation lineage concept and multiple concordant data sets, we identify three exclusive groups of dwarf lemur populations that correspond to three of the seven named species: C. major, C. medius and C. crossleyi. These three species were found to be genealogically exclusive in both mtDNA and nDNA loci and are morphologically distinguishable. The molecular and morphometric data indicate that C. adipicaudatus and C. ravus are synonymous with C. medius and C. major, respectively. Cheirogaleus sibreei falls into the C. medius mtDNA clade, but in morphological analyses the membership is not clearly resolved. We do not have sufficient data to assess the status of C. minusculus. Although additional patterns of population differentiation are evident, there are no clear subdivisions that would warrant additional specific status. We propose that ecological and more geographic data should be collected to confirm these results.

  16. Low genetic diversity despite multiple introductions of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenblad, Jenny; Hülskötter, Jennifer; Acharya, Kamal Prasad; Brunet, Jörg; Chabrerie, Olivier; Cousins, Sara A O; Dar, Pervaiz A; Diekmann, Martin; De Frenne, Pieter; Hermy, Martin; Jamoneau, Aurélien; Kolb, Annette; Lemke, Isgard; Plue, Jan; Reshi, Zafar A; Graae, Bente Jessen

    2015-08-20

    Invasive species can be a major threat to native biodiversity and the number of invasive plant species is increasing across the globe. Population genetic studies of invasive species can provide key insights into their invasion history and ensuing evolution, but also for their control. Here we genetically characterise populations of Impatiens glandulifera, an invasive plant in Europe that can have a major impact on native plant communities. We compared populations from the species' native range in Kashmir, India, to those in its invaded range, along a latitudinal gradient in Europe. For comparison, the results from 39 other studies of genetic diversity in invasive species were collated. Our results suggest that I. glandulifera was established in the wild in Europe at least twice, from an area outside of our Kashmir study area. Our results further revealed that the genetic diversity in invasive populations of I. glandulifera is unusually low compared to native populations, in particular when compared to other invasive species. Genetic drift rather than mutation seems to have played a role in differentiating populations in Europe. We find evidence of limitations to local gene flow after introduction to Europe, but somewhat less restrictions in the native range. I. glandulifera populations with significant inbreeding were only found in the species' native range and invasive species in general showed no increase in inbreeding upon leaving their native ranges. In Europe we detect cases of migration between distantly located populations. Human activities therefore seem to, at least partially, have facilitated not only introductions, but also further spread of I. glandulifera across Europe. Although multiple introductions will facilitate the retention of genetic diversity in invasive ranges, widespread invasive species can remain genetically relatively invariant also after multiple introductions. Phenotypic plasticity may therefore be an important component of the

  17. Multidimensional Extension of Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes Models to Detect DIF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soo; Bulut, Okan; Suh, Youngsuk

    2017-01-01

    A number of studies have found multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models to be an effective tool in detecting uniform differential item functioning (DIF) for individual items and item bundles. A recently developed MIMIC-interaction model is capable of detecting both uniform and nonuniform DIF in the unidimensional item response theory…

  18. Multiple factors contribute to reproductive isolation between two co-existing Habenaria species (Orchidaceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenliu Zhang

    Full Text Available Reproductive isolation is a key feature that forms barriers to gene flow between distinct plants. In orchids, prezygotic reproductive isolation has been considered to be strong, because their associations with highly specific pollinators. In this study, the reproductive ecology and reproductive isolation of two sympatric Habenaria species, H. davidii and H. fordii, was investigated by floral phenology and morphology, hand-pollination experiments and visitor observation in southwest China. The two species were dependent on insects for pollination and completely self-compatible. A number of factors have been identified to limit gene flow between the two species and achieved full reproductive isolation. Ecogeographic isolation was a weak barrier. H. fordii and H. davidii had completely overlapped flowering periods, and floral morphology plays an important role in floral isolation. The two species shared the same hawkmoth pollinator, Cechenena lineosa, but the pollinaria of the two orchids were attached on different body parts of pollinators. Prezygotic isolation was not complete, but the interspecific pollination treatments of each species resulted in no seed sets, indicating that unlike many other orchid species, in which the postzygotic reproductive isolation is very weak or complete absence, the post-zygotic isolation strongly acted in the stage of seed production between two species. The results illustrate the reproductive isolation between two species involves multiple plant life-history stages and a variety of reproductive barriers can contribute to overall isolation.

  19. Alternative Multiple Imputation Inference for Mean and Covariance Structure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taehun; Cai, Li

    2012-01-01

    Model-based multiple imputation has become an indispensable method in the educational and behavioral sciences. Mean and covariance structure models are often fitted to multiply imputed data sets. However, the presence of multiple random imputations complicates model fit testing, which is an important aspect of mean and covariance structure…

  20. Evolving Four Part Harmony Using a Multiple Worlds Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scirea, Marco; Brown, Joseph Alexander

    2015-01-01

    This application of the Multiple Worlds Model examines a collaborative fitness model for generating four part harmonies. In this model we have multiple populations and the fitness of the individuals is based on the ability of a member from each population to work with the members of other...

  1. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, Martin P; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; MacLennan, Graeme; Bonetti, Debbie; Glidewell, Liz; Pitts, Nigel B; Steen, Nick; Thomas, Ruth; Walker, Anne; Johnston, Marie

    2012-10-17

    , the mean construct scores were above the mid-point on the scale with median values across the five behaviors generally being above four out of seven and the range being from 1.53 to 6.01. Across all of the theories, the highest proportion of the variance explained was always for intention and the lowest was for behavior. The Knowledge-Attitudes-Behavior Model performed poorly across all behaviors and dependent variables; CSSRM also performed poorly. For TPB, SCT, II, and LT across the five behaviors, we predicted median R2 of 25% to 42.6% for intention, 6.2% to 16% for behavioral simulation, and 2.4% to 6.3% for behavior. We operationalized multiple theories measuring across five behaviors. Continuing challenges that emerge from our work are: better specification of behaviors, better operationalization of theories; how best to appropriately extend the range of theories; further assessment of the value of theories in different settings and groups; exploring the implications of these methods for the management of chronic diseases; and moving to experimental designs to allow an understanding of behavior change.

  2. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eccles Martin P

    2012-10-01

    the five surveys. For the predictor variables, the mean construct scores were above the mid-point on the scale with median values across the five behaviors generally being above four out of seven and the range being from 1.53 to 6.01. Across all of the theories, the highest proportion of the variance explained was always for intention and the lowest was for behavior. The Knowledge-Attitudes-Behavior Model performed poorly across all behaviors and dependent variables; CSSRM also performed poorly. For TPB, SCT, II, and LT across the five behaviors, we predicted median R2 of 25% to 42.6% for intention, 6.2% to 16% for behavioral simulation, and 2.4% to 6.3% for behavior. Conclusions We operationalized multiple theories measuring across five behaviors. Continuing challenges that emerge from our work are: better specification of behaviors, better operationalization of theories; how best to appropriately extend the range of theories; further assessment of the value of theories in different settings and groups; exploring the implications of these methods for the management of chronic diseases; and moving to experimental designs to allow an understanding of behavior change.

  3. Novel evidence for within-species leaf economics spectrum at multiple spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Kun eHu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Leaf economics spectrum (LES, characterizing covariation among a suite of leaf traits relevant to carbon and nutrient economics, has been examined largely among species but hardly within species. In addition, very little attempt has been made to examine whether the existence of LES depends on spatial scales. To address these questions, we quantified the variation and covariation of four leaf economic traits (specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus contents in a cosmopolitan wetland species (Phragmites australis at three spatial (inter-regional, regional and site scales across most of the species range in China. The species expressed large intraspecific variation in the leaf economic traits at all of the three spatial scales. It also showed strong covariation among the four leaf economic traits across the species range. The coordination among leaf economic traits resulted in LES at all three scales and the environmental variables determining variation in leaf economic traits were different among the spatial scales. Our results provide novel evidence for within-species LES at multiple spatial scales, indicating that resource trade-off could also constrain intraspecific trait variation mainly driven by climatic and/or edaphic differences.

  4. New approaches for sampling and modeling native and exotic plant species richness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, G.W.; Reich, R.M.; Kalkhan, M.A.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2001-01-01

    We demonstrate new multi-phase, multi-scale approaches for sampling and modeling native and exotic plant species to predict the spread of invasive species and aid in control efforts. Our test site is a 54,000-ha portion of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. This work is based on previous research wherein we developed vegetation sampling techniques to identify hot spots of diversity, important rare habitats, and locations of invasive plant species. Here we demonstrate statistical modeling tools to rapidly assess current patterns of native and exotic plant species to determine which habitats are most vulnerable to invasion by exotic species. We use stepwise multiple regression and modified residual kriging to estimate numbers of native species and exotic species, as well as probability of observing an exotic species in 30 × 30-m cells. Final models accounted for 62% of the variability observed in number of native species, 51% of the variability observed in number of exotic species, and 47% of the variability associated with observing an exotic species. Important independent variables used in developing the models include geographical location, elevation, slope, aspect, and Landsat TM bands 1-7. These models can direct resource managers to areas in need of further inventory, monitoring, and exotic species control efforts.

  5. Unimodal models to relate species to environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braak, ter C.J.F.

    1987-01-01

    To assess the impact of environmental change on biological communities knowledge about species-environment relationships is indispensable. Ecologists attempt to uncover the relationships between species and environment from data obtained from field surveys. In the survey, species are scored on their

  6. Affine LIBOR Models with Multiple Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grbac, Zorana; Papapantoleon, Antonis; Schoenmakers, John

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a multiple curve framework that combines tractable dynamics and semianalytic pricing formulas with positive interest rates and basis spreads. Negative rates and positive spreads can also be accommodated in this framework. The dynamics of overnight indexed swap and LIBOR rates...

  7. Transport of a multiple ion species plasma in the Pfirsch--Schluter regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirshman, S.P.

    1976-10-01

    The classical parallel friction coefficients, which relate the collisional friction forces to the flow of particles and heat along the magnetic field, are calculated for a multiple ion species plasma. In the short mean free path regime, the neoclassical Pfirsch--Schlueter transport coefficients for a toroidally confined multispecies plasma are computed in terms of the classical friction coefficients. The dependence of the neoclassical cross-field transport on the equilibration of the parallel ion temperature profiles is determined

  8. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  9. Challenges in LCA modelling of multiple loops for aluminium cans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Olsen, Stig Irving

    one of the main features of circular product systems, i.e. the need to model multiple life cycles. There are some key methodological challenges that LCA has to face in order to exploit its potential in a circular economy framework, e.g. how to model the recycling of materials in multiple loops. We...

  10. Effects of multiple heteroatom species and topographic defects on electrocatalytic and capacitive performances of graphene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Mengmeng; Huang, Yang; Yuan, Fanshu; Hao, Qingli; Yang, Jiazhi; Sun, Dongping

    2017-10-01

    N-doped graphene has been widely researched as metal-free electrocatalyst and electrode material of energy storage devices but the effect of heteroatom species and topographic defects on these applications was rarely reported. We successfully prepared dual (N, S) or ternary heteroatoms (N, S, P)-doped graphene by simple hydrothermal and then carbonization treatment. Compared to singly N doping, multiple heteroatom species dopant is beneficial to positively move onset potential, approach four electron catalytic pathway in oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) due to the synergistic effect. The emerging topographic defects induced by removing heteroatoms and oxygen at high temperature also act as efficient active sites for positively shifting onset potential. Meanwhile, the porous ternary heteroatoms-doped graphene possesses a good capacitive performance such as high gravimetric capacitance (196.4 Fg-1 at 1 Ag-1), high retained rate (92.7%), 98% retention over 2000 recycling. The excellent capacitive properties derive from large specific surface area (943.5 m2 g-1), mesoporous structure, particularly the important role of abundant dopants of multiple heteroatom species. Therefore, we demonstrated the effect of heteroatom species and topographic defects on electrocatalyzing ORR and capacitive performance.

  11. Characters with multiple usages- phenotypic variability analysis at Echinacea purpurea (L. Moench species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Radu POP

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Merging aesthetics with utility, some medicinal plants can benefit both of a high production and decoration potential. This calls for diversification of improvement directions of the species. Through this article we suggest one of these species, Echinacea purpurea (L. Moench. This is considered to be important at this time, acquisition of new biological forms - varieties in this species, which show multiple attributes utility based on key biological characteristics, agronomic, physiological, biochemical and agrochemical (medicinal, decorative, culinary etc.. To achieve this goal, studies were undertaken, given in this article, which is the starting point for selecting characters representative for our targets.The results presented in this study reveal a pronounced genetic polymorphism showing the selection operation can use the original material for a quantitative and qualitative differentiation of valuable genotypes that could be approved.

  12. Nyala and Bushbuck I: A Competing Species Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, Temple H.; Greeff, Johanna C.

    1999-01-01

    Introduces a model of differential equations for students--a very real overpopulation problem is occurring in the Ndumu Game Reserve in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where one species of antelope, the Nyala, is crowding out another species, the Bushbuck. Constructs a competing species model to mathematically describe what is occurring in Ndumu.…

  13. Multiple imputation of multiple multi-item scales when a full imputation model is infeasible.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumpton, Catrin O; Morris, Tim; Hughes, Dyfrig A; White, Ian R

    2016-01-26

    Missing data in a large scale survey presents major challenges. We focus on performing multiple imputation by chained equations when data contain multiple incomplete multi-item scales. Recent authors have proposed imputing such data at the level of the individual item, but this can lead to infeasibly large imputation models. We use data gathered from a large multinational survey, where analysis uses separate logistic regression models in each of nine country-specific data sets. In these data, applying multiple imputation by chained equations to the individual scale items is computationally infeasible. We propose an adaptation of multiple imputation by chained equations which imputes the individual scale items but reduces the number of variables in the imputation models by replacing most scale items with scale summary scores. We evaluate the feasibility of the proposed approach and compare it with a complete case analysis. We perform a simulation study to compare the proposed method with alternative approaches: we do this in a simplified setting to allow comparison with the full imputation model. For the case study, the proposed approach reduces the size of the prediction models from 134 predictors to a maximum of 72 and makes multiple imputation by chained equations computationally feasible. Distributions of imputed data are seen to be consistent with observed data. Results from the regression analysis with multiple imputation are similar to, but more precise than, results for complete case analysis; for the same regression models a 39% reduction in the standard error is observed. The simulation shows that our proposed method can perform comparably against the alternatives. By substantially reducing imputation model sizes, our adaptation makes multiple imputation feasible for large scale survey data with multiple multi-item scales. For the data considered, analysis of the multiply imputed data shows greater power and efficiency than complete case analysis. The

  14. Above- and below-ground effects of plant diversity depend on species origin: an experimental test with multiple invaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuebbing, Sara E; Classen, Aimée T; Sanders, Nathan J; Simberloff, Daniel

    2015-11-01

    Although many plant communities are invaded by multiple nonnative species, we have limited information on how a species' origin affects ecosystem function. We tested how differences in species richness and origin affect productivity and seedling establishment. We created phylogenetically paired native and nonnative plant communities in a glasshouse experiment to test diversity-productivity relationships and responsible mechanisms (i.e. selection or complementarity effects). Additionally, we tested how productivity and associated mechanisms influenced seedling establishment. We used diversity-interaction models to describe how species' interactions influenced diversity-productivity relationships. Communities with more species had higher total biomass than did monoculture communities, but native and nonnative communities diverged in root : shoot ratios and the mechanism responsible for increased productivity: positive selection effect in nonnative communities and positive complementarity effect in native communities. Seedling establishment was 46% lower in nonnative than in native communities and was correlated with the average selection effect. Interspecific interactions contributed to productivity patterns, but the specific types of interactions differed between native and nonnative communities. These results reinforce findings that the diversity-productivity mechanisms in native and nonnative communities differ and are the first to show that these mechanisms can influence seedling establishment and that different types of interactions influence diversity-productivity relationships. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  15. Reserve selection using nonlinear species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moilanen, Atte

    2005-06-01

    Reserve design is concerned with optimal selection of sites for new conservation areas. Spatial reserve design explicitly considers the spatial pattern of the proposed reserve network and the effects of that pattern on reserve cost and/or ability to maintain species there. The vast majority of reserve selection formulations have assumed a linear problem structure, which effectively means that the biological value of a potential reserve site does not depend on the pattern of selected cells. However, spatial population dynamics and autocorrelation cause the biological values of neighboring sites to be interdependent. Habitat degradation may have indirect negative effects on biodiversity in areas neighboring the degraded site as a result of, for example, negative edge effects or lower permeability for animal movement. In this study, I present a formulation and a spatial optimization algorithm for nonlinear reserve selection problems in grid-based landscapes that accounts for interdependent site values. The method is demonstrated using habitat maps and nonlinear habitat models for threatened birds in the Netherlands, and it is shown that near-optimal solutions are found for regions consisting of up to hundreds of thousands grid cells, a landscape size much larger than those commonly attempted even with linear reserve selection formulations.

  16. Multiple mode model of tokamak transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singer, C.E.; Ghanem, E.S.; Bateman, G.; Stotler, D.P.

    1989-07-01

    Theoretical models for radical transport of energy and particles in tokamaks due to drift waves, rippling modes, and resistive ballooning modes have been combined in a predictive transport code. The resulting unified model has been used to simulate low confinement mode (L-mode) energy confinement scalings. Dependence of global energy confinement on electron density for the resulting model is also described. 26 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  17. Multiple system modelling of waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eriksson, Ola; Bisaillon, Mattias

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the systems. → The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. → The simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models. - Abstract: Due to increased environmental awareness, planning and performance of waste management has become more and more complex. Therefore waste management has early been subject to different types of modelling. Another field with long experience of modelling and systems perspective is energy systems. The two modelling traditions have developed side by side, but so far there are very few attempts to combine them. Waste management systems can be linked together with energy systems through incineration plants. The models for waste management can be modelled on a quite detailed level whereas surrounding systems are modelled in a more simplistic way. This is a problem, as previous studies have shown that assumptions on the surrounding system often tend to be important for the conclusions. In this paper it is shown how two models, one for the district heating system (MARTES) and another one for the waste management system (ORWARE), can be linked together. The strengths and weaknesses with model linking are discussed when compared to simplistic assumptions on effects in the energy and waste management systems. It is concluded that the linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the consequences of different simultaneous changes in the systems. The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. However, the simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models.

  18. Multiple mode model of tokamak transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singer, C.E.; Ghanem, E.S.; Bateman, G.; Stotler, D.P.

    1989-07-01

    Theoretical models for radical transport of energy and particles in tokamaks due to drift waves, rippling modes, and resistive ballooning modes have been combined in a predictive transport code. The resulting unified model has been used to simulate low confinement mode (L-mode) energy confinement scalings. Dependence of global energy confinement on electron density for the resulting model is also described. 26 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  19. DUSTMS-D: DISPOSAL UNIT SOURCE TERM - MULTIPLE SPECIES - DISTRIBUTED FAILURE DATA INPUT GUIDE.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SULLIVAN, T.M.

    2006-01-01

    Performance assessment of a low-level waste (LLW) disposal facility begins with an estimation of the rate at which radionuclides migrate out of the facility (i.e., the source term). The focus of this work is to develop a methodology for calculating the source term. In general, the source term is influenced by the radionuclide inventory, the wasteforms and containers used to dispose of the inventory, and the physical processes that lead to release from the facility (fluid flow, container degradation, wasteform leaching, and radionuclide transport). Many of these physical processes are influenced by the design of the disposal facility (e.g., how the engineered barriers control infiltration of water). The complexity of the problem and the absence of appropriate data prevent development of an entirely mechanistic representation of radionuclide release from a disposal facility. Typically, a number of assumptions, based on knowledge of the disposal system, are used to simplify the problem. This has been done and the resulting models have been incorporated into the computer code DUST-MS (Disposal Unit Source Term-Multiple Species). The DUST-MS computer code is designed to model water flow, container degradation, release of contaminants from the wasteform to the contacting solution and transport through the subsurface media. Water flow through the facility over time is modeled using tabular input. Container degradation models include three types of failure rates: (a) instantaneous (all containers in a control volume fail at once), (b) uniformly distributed failures (containers fail at a linear rate between a specified starting and ending time), and (c) gaussian failure rates (containers fail at a rate determined by a mean failure time, standard deviation and gaussian distribution). Wasteform release models include four release mechanisms: (a) rinse with partitioning (inventory is released instantly upon container failure subject to equilibrium partitioning (sorption) with

  20. San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) Rare Plant Monitoring Review and Revision

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEachern, Kathryn; Pavlik, Bruce M.; Rebman, Jon; Sutter, Rob

    2007-01-01

    Introduction The San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) was developed for the conservation of plants and animals in the south part of San Diego County, under the California Natural Community Conservation Planning Act of 1991 (California Department of Fish and Game) and the Federal Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (16 U.S. Code 1531-1544.) The Program is on the leading edge of conservation, as it seeks to both guide development and conserve at-risk species with the oversight of both State and Federal agencies. Lands were identified for inclusion in the MSCP based on their value as habitat for at-risk plants or plant communities (Natural Community Conservation Planning, 2005). Since its inception in the mid-1990s the Program has protected over 100,000 acres, involving 15 jurisdictions and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) in the conservation of 87 taxa. Surveys for covered species have been conducted, and management and monitoring have been implemented at some high priority sites. Each jurisdiction or agency manages and monitors their conservation areas independently, while collaborating regionally for long-term protection. The San Diego MSCP is on the forefront of conservation, in one of the most rapidly growing urban areas of the country. The planning effort that developed the MSCP was state-of-the-art, using expert knowledge, spatial habitat modeling, and principles of preserve design to identify and prioritize areas for protection. Land acquisition and protection are ahead of schedule for most jurisdictions. Surveys have verified the locations of many rare plant populations known from earlier collections, and they provide general information on population size and health useful for further conservation planning. Management plans have been written or are in development for most MSCP parcels under jurisdictional control. Several agencies are developing databases for implementation

  1. Single species victory in a two-site, two-species model of population dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddell, Jack; Sander, Len; Kessler, David

    2008-03-01

    We study the behavior of two species, differentiated only by their dispersal rates in an environment providing heterogeneous growth rates. Previous deterministic studies have shown that the slower-dispersal species always drives the faster species to extinction, while stochastic studies show that the opposite case can occur given small enough population and spatial heterogeneity. Other models of similar systems demonstrate the existence of an optimum dispersal rate, suggesting that distinguishing the species as faster or slower is insufficient. We here study the interface of these models for a small spatial system and determine the conditions of stability for a single species outcome.

  2. Do Stacked Species Distribution Models Reflect Altitudinal Diversity Patterns?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, Rubén G.; Felicísimo, Ángel M.; Pottier, Julien; Guisan, Antoine; Muñoz, Jesús

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed. PMID

  3. Modelling of rate effects at multiple scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, R.R.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L. J.

    2008-01-01

    , the length scale in the meso-model and the macro-model can be coupled. In this fashion, a bridging of length scales can be established. A computational analysis of  a Split Hopkinson bar test at medium and high impact load is carried out at macro-scale and meso-scale including information from  the micro-scale....

  4. Modelling Multiple Mind-Matter Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    Relations between mental and physical aspects of an agent can be of various types. Sensing and acting are among the more commonly modelled types. In agent modelling approaches often this is the only interaction between the physical and mental; other possible types of interactions are abstracted

  5. Coevolution in communication senders and receivers: vocal behavior and auditory processing in multiple songbird species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolley, Sarah M N; Moore, Jordan M

    2011-04-01

    Communication is a strong selective pressure on brain evolution because the exchange of information between individuals is crucial for fitness-related behaviors, such as mating. Given the importance of communication, the brains of signal senders and receivers are likely to be functionally coordinated. We study vocal behavior and auditory processing in multiple species of estrildid finches with the goal of understanding how species identity and early experience interact to shape the neural systems that subserve communication. Male finches learn to produce species-specific songs, and both sexes learn to recognize songs. Our studies indicate that closely related species exhibit different auditory coding properties in the midbrain and forebrain and that early life experience of vocalizations contributes to these differences. Moreover, birds that naturally sing tonal songs can learn broadband songs from heterospecific tutors, providing an opportunity to examine the interplay between species identity and early experience in the development of vocal behavior and auditory tuning. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  6. New highland distribution records of multiple Anopheles species in the Ecuadorian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hunter Fiona F

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several recent climate change reviews have stressed the possibility of some malaria vectors occupying regions of higher altitudes than previously recorded. Indeed, highland malaria has been observed in several African nations, possibly attributable to changes in land use, vector control and local climate. This study attempts to expand the current knowledge of the distribution of common Anopheles species in Ecuador, with particular attention to highland regions (> 500 m of the Andes. Methods Extensive field collections of larvae were undertaken in 2008, 2009 and 2010 throughout all regions of Ecuador (except the lower-altitude Amazonian plain and compared to historical distribution maps reproduced from the 1940s. Larvae were identified using both a morphological key and sequencing of the 800 bp region of the CO1 mitochondrial gene. In addition, spatial statistics (Getis-Ord Hotspot Analysis: Gi* were used to determine high and low-density clusters of each species in Ecuador. Results Distributions have been updated for five species of Anopheles in Ecuador: Anopheles albimanus, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, Anopheles punctimacula, Anopheles eiseni and Anopheles oswaldoi s.l.. Historical maps indicate that An. pseudopunctipennis used to be widespread in highland Andean valleys, while other species were completely restricted to lowland areas. By comparison, updated maps for the other four collected species show higher maximum elevations and/or more widespread distributions in highland regions than previously recorded. Gi* analysis determined some highland hot spots for An. albimanus, but only cold spots for all other species. Conclusions This study documents the establishment of multiple anopheline species in high altitude regions of Ecuador, often in areas where malaria eradication programs are not focused.

  7. High prevalence of multiple paternity in the invasive crayfish species, Procambarus clarkii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Gen Hua; Li, Jia Le; Wang, Chun Ming; Xia, Jun Hong; Wang, Gen Lin; Feng, Jian Bing

    2010-01-01

    Reproductive strategy is a central feature of the ecology of invasive species as it determines the potential for population increase and range expansion. The red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, has invaded many countries and caused serious problems in freshwater ecosystems. However, little is known about the effects of environmental conditions on crayfish paternity and offspring traits in the wild. We studied these reproductive characteristics of P. clarkii in wild populations from two different habitats (ponds and ditches) in three locations with different environmental conditions in China. Genotyping of 1,436 offspring and 30 mothers of 30 broods was conducted by using four microsatellites. An analysis of genotyping results revealed that gravid females were the exclusive mother of the progeny they tended. Twenty-nine of 30 mothers had mated with multiple (2-4) males, each of which contributed differently to the number of offspring in a brood. The average number of fathers per brood and the number of offspring per brood were similar (P > 0.05) among six sampling sites, indicating that in P. clarkii multiple paternity and offspring number per brood are independent of environmental conditions studied. Indirect benefits from increasing the genetic diversity of broods, male and sperm competition, and cryptic female choice are a possible explanation for the high level multiple paternity and different contribution of fathers to offspring in this species. PMID:20186292

  8. Effects of different dispersal patterns on the presence-absence of multiple species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd, Mohd Hafiz; Murray, Rua; Plank, Michael J.; Godsoe, William

    2018-03-01

    Predicting which species will be present (or absent) across a geographical region remains one of the key problems in ecology. Numerous studies have suggested several ecological factors that can determine species presence-absence: environmental factors (i.e. abiotic environments), interactions among species (i.e. biotic interactions) and dispersal process. While various ecological factors have been considered, less attention has been given to the problem of understanding how different dispersal patterns, in interaction with other factors, shape community assembly in the presence of priority effects (i.e. where relative initial abundances determine the long-term presence-absence of each species). By employing both local and non-local dispersal models, we investigate the consequences of different dispersal patterns on the occurrence of priority effects and coexistence in multi-species communities. In the case of non-local, but short-range dispersal, we observe agreement with the predictions of local models for weak and medium dispersal strength, but disagreement for relatively strong dispersal levels. Our analysis shows the existence of a threshold value in dispersal strength (i.e. saddle-node bifurcation) above which priority effects disappear. These results also reveal a co-dimension 2 point, corresponding to a degenerate transcritical bifurcation: at this point, the transcritical bifurcation changes from subcritical to supercritical with corresponding creation of a saddle-node bifurcation curve. We observe further contrasting effects of non-local dispersal as dispersal distance changes: while very long-range dispersal can lead to species extinctions, intermediate-range dispersal can permit more outcomes with multi-species coexistence than short-range dispersal (or purely local dispersal). Overall, our results show that priority effects are more pronounced in the non-local dispersal models than in the local dispersal models. Taken together, our findings highlight

  9. Predicting Landscape-Genetic Consequences of Habitat Loss, Fragmentation and Mobility for Multiple Species of Woodland Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, J. Nevil; Bennett, Andrew F.; Mac Nally, Ralph; Newell, Graeme; Pavlova, Alexandra; Radford, James Q.; Thomson, James R.; White, Matt; Sunnucks, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Inference concerning the impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and gene flow is a key theme in landscape genetics. Recently, the ability of established approaches to identify reliably the differential effects of landscape structure (e.g. land-cover composition, remnant vegetation configuration and extent) on the mobility of organisms has been questioned. More explicit methods of predicting and testing for such effects must move beyond post hoc explanations for single landscapes and species. Here, we document a process for making a priori predictions, using existing spatial and ecological data and expert opinion, of the effects of landscape structure on genetic structure of multiple species across replicated landscape blocks. We compare the results of two common methods for estimating the influence of landscape structure on effective distance: least-cost path analysis and isolation-by-resistance. We present a series of alternative models of genetic connectivity in the study area, represented by different landscape resistance surfaces for calculating effective distance, and identify appropriate null models. The process is applied to ten species of sympatric woodland-dependant birds. For each species, we rank a priori the expectation of fit of genetic response to the models according to the expected response of birds to loss of structural connectivity and landscape-scale tree-cover. These rankings (our hypotheses) are presented for testing with empirical genetic data in a subsequent contribution. We propose that this replicated landscape, multi-species approach offers a robust method for identifying the likely effects of landscape fragmentation on dispersal. PMID:22363508

  10. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  11. Model checking in multiple imputation: an overview and case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cattram D. Nguyen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple imputation has become very popular as a general-purpose method for handling missing data. The validity of multiple-imputation-based analyses relies on the use of an appropriate model to impute the missing values. Despite the widespread use of multiple imputation, there are few guidelines available for checking imputation models. Analysis In this paper, we provide an overview of currently available methods for checking imputation models. These include graphical checks and numerical summaries, as well as simulation-based methods such as posterior predictive checking. These model checking techniques are illustrated using an analysis affected by missing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Conclusions As multiple imputation becomes further established as a standard approach for handling missing data, it will become increasingly important that researchers employ appropriate model checking approaches to ensure that reliable results are obtained when using this method.

  12. Model checking in multiple imputation: an overview and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Carlin, John B; Lee, Katherine J

    2017-01-01

    Multiple imputation has become very popular as a general-purpose method for handling missing data. The validity of multiple-imputation-based analyses relies on the use of an appropriate model to impute the missing values. Despite the widespread use of multiple imputation, there are few guidelines available for checking imputation models. In this paper, we provide an overview of currently available methods for checking imputation models. These include graphical checks and numerical summaries, as well as simulation-based methods such as posterior predictive checking. These model checking techniques are illustrated using an analysis affected by missing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. As multiple imputation becomes further established as a standard approach for handling missing data, it will become increasingly important that researchers employ appropriate model checking approaches to ensure that reliable results are obtained when using this method.

  13. Multiple View Stereo by Reflectance Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Sujung; Kim, Seong Dae; Dahl, Anders Lindbjerg

    2012-01-01

    we argue that a visual metric based on a surface reflectance model should be founded on more observations than the degrees of freedom (dof) of the reflectance model. If (partly) specular surfaces are to be handled, this implies a model with at least two dof. In this paper, we propose to construct...... visual metrics of more than one dof using the DAISY methodology, which compares favorably to the state of the art in the experiments carried out. These experiments are based on a novel data set of eight scenes with diffuse and specular surfaces and accompanying ground truth. The performance of six...... different visual metrics based on the DAISY framework is investigated experimentally, addressing whether a visual metric should be aggregated from a set of minimal images, which dof is best, or whether a combination of one and two dof should be used. Which metric performs best is dependent on the viewed...

  14. Developing above-ground woody biomass equations for open-grown, multiple-stemmed tree species: shelterbelt-grown Russian-olive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xinhau Zhour; James R. Brandle; Michele M. Schoeneberger; Tala Awada

    2007-01-01

    Multiple-stemmed tree species are often used in agricultural settings, playing a significant role in natural resource conservation and carbon sequestration. Biomass estimation, whether for modeling growth under different climate scenarios, accounting for carbon sequestered, or inclusion in natural resource inventories, requires equations that can accurately describe...

  15. Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

  16. New experimental model of multiple myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telegin, G B; Kalinina, A R; Ponomarenko, N A; Ovsepyan, A A; Smirnov, S V; Tsybenko, V V; Homeriki, S G

    2001-06-01

    NSO/1 (P3x63Ay 8Ut) and SP20 myeloma cells were inoculated to BALB/c OlaHsd mice. NSO/1 cells allowed adequate stage-by-stage monitoring of tumor development. The adequacy of this model was confirmed in experiments with conventional cytostatics: prospidium and cytarabine caused necrosis of tumor cells and reduced animal mortality.

  17. Multiple Models for Rosaceae Genomics[OA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulaev, Vladimir; Korban, Schuyler S.; Sosinski, Bryon; Abbott, Albert G.; Aldwinckle, Herb S.; Folta, Kevin M.; Iezzoni, Amy; Main, Dorrie; Arús, Pere; Dandekar, Abhaya M.; Lewers, Kim; Brown, Susan K.; Davis, Thomas M.; Gardiner, Susan E.; Potter, Daniel; Veilleux, Richard E.

    2008-01-01

    The plant family Rosaceae consists of over 100 genera and 3,000 species that include many important fruit, nut, ornamental, and wood crops. Members of this family provide high-value nutritional foods and contribute desirable aesthetic and industrial products. Most rosaceous crops have been enhanced by human intervention through sexual hybridization, asexual propagation, and genetic improvement since ancient times, 4,000 to 5,000 B.C. Modern breeding programs have contributed to the selection and release of numerous cultivars having significant economic impact on the U.S. and world markets. In recent years, the Rosaceae community, both in the United States and internationally, has benefited from newfound organization and collaboration that have hastened progress in developing genetic and genomic resources for representative crops such as apple (Malus spp.), peach (Prunus spp.), and strawberry (Fragaria spp.). These resources, including expressed sequence tags, bacterial artificial chromosome libraries, physical and genetic maps, and molecular markers, combined with genetic transformation protocols and bioinformatics tools, have rendered various rosaceous crops highly amenable to comparative and functional genomics studies. This report serves as a synopsis of the resources and initiatives of the Rosaceae community, recent developments in Rosaceae genomics, and plans to apply newly accumulated knowledge and resources toward breeding and crop improvement. PMID:18487361

  18. Multiple Social Networks, Data Models and Measures for

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnani, Matteo; Rossi, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Multiple Social Network Analysis is a discipline defining models, measures, methodologies, and algorithms to study multiple social networks together as a single social system. It is particularly valuable when the networks are interconnected, e.g., the same actors are present in more than one...

  19. Visualizing Decimal Multiplication with Area Models: Opportunities and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathouz, Margaret

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a pilot study in which pre-service elementary teachers (PSTs) used rectangular area models on base-10 grid paper to begin making sense of multiplication of decimal fractions. Although connections were made to multi-digit whole number multiplication and to the distributive property, the PSTs were challenged by interpreting…

  20. Parametric modeling for damped sinusoids from multiple channels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Zhenhua; So, Hing Cheung; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2013-01-01

    The problem of parametric modeling for noisy damped sinusoidal signals from multiple channels is addressed. Utilizing the shift invariance property of the signal subspace, the number of distinct sinusoidal poles in the multiple channels is first determined. With the estimated number, the distinct...

  1. Bovine digital dermatitis: Possible pathogenic consortium consisting of Dichelobacter nodosus and multiple Treponema species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Marianne; Capion, Nynne; Schou, Kirstine Klitgaard

    2012-01-01

    Bovine digital dermatitis (DD) is a multifactorial disease involving at least one or more treponemal species. Virulent phylotypes of Treponema and other infectious agents contributing to disease etiology still remain to be identified. This study addressed these questions by analyzing the prevalence...... and distribution of seventeen phylotypes of Treponema in DD lesions by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) applying species/phylotype-specific oligonucleotide probes. In situ hybridization for Dichelobacter nodosus, the cause of ovine footrot, was additionally performed. We sampled 90 biopsies of DD lesions...... originating from one Norwegian and six Danish dairy herds, and 24 tissue samples of healthy skin. All lesions revealed intermingled infections with multiple Treponema phylotypes (mean > 7). In six herds, the mean number of phylotypes identified varied between 12 and 15. D. nodosus was present in forty...

  2. Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, James D.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Talancy, Neil W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Gilbert, Andrew T.; Annand, Elizabeth M.; Husband, Thomas P.; Hines, James E.

    2008-01-01

    Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method.We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site.We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber. For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species.Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be

  3. Soft landing on an irregular shape asteroid using Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlandiHallaj, MohammadAmin; Assadian, Nima

    2017-11-01

    This study has introduced a predictive framework including a heuristic guidance law named Predictive Path Planning and Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control as the control scheme for soft landing on an irregular-shaped asteroid. The dynamical model of spacecraft trajectory around an asteroid is introduced. The reference-landing trajectory is generated using Predictive Path Planning. Not only does the presented guidance law satisfy the collision avoidance constraint, but also guarantees the landing accuracy and vertical landing condition. Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control is employed to make the spacecraft track the designed reference trajectory. The proposed control approach, which is a Model Predictive Control scheme, utilizes several prediction models instead of one. In this manner, it heritages the advantages of optimality and tackling external disturbances and model uncertainties from classical Model Predictive Control and at the same time has the advantage of lower computational burden than Model Predictive Control. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control approach in achieving the desired conditions in presence of uncertainties and disturbances.

  4. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models

    OpenAIRE

    Eccles, Martin P; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; MacLennan, Graeme; Bonetti, Debbie; Glidewell, Liz; Pitts, Nigel B; Steen, Nick; Thomas, Ruth; Walker, Anne; Johnston, Marie

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background In the field of implementation research, there is an increased interest in use of theory when designing implementation research studies involving behavior change. In 2003, we initiated a series of five studies to establish a scientific rationale for interventions to translate research findings into clinical practice by exploring the performance of a number of different, commonly used, overlapping behavioral theories and models. We reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of...

  5. Multiple Imputation of Predictor Variables Using Generalized Additive Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Roel; van Buuren, Stef; Spiess, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The sensitivity of multiple imputation methods to deviations from their distributional assumptions is investigated using simulations, where the parameters of scientific interest are the coefficients of a linear regression model, and values in predictor variables are missing at random. The

  6. A Kolmogorov-type competition model with multiple coexistence states and its applications to plant competition for sunlight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, Winfried; Nevai, Andrew L.

    2008-12-01

    It is demonstrated that a Kolmogorov-type competition model featuring species allocation and gain functions can possess multiple coexistence statesE Two examples are constructed: one in which the two competing species possess rectangular allocation functions but distinct gain functions, and the other in which one species has a rectangular allocation function, the second species has a bi-rectangular allocation function, and the two species share a common gain function. In both examples, it is shown that the species nullclines may intersect multiple times within the interior of the first quadrant, thus creating both locally stable and unstable equilibrium points. These results have important applications in the study of plant competition for sunlight, in which the allocation functions describe the vertical placement of leaves for two competing species, and the gain functions represent rates of photosynthesis performed by leaves at different heights when shaded by overlying leaves belonging to either species.

  7. A simple model for skewed species-lifetime distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke

    2010-06-11

    A simple model of a biological community assembly is studied. Communities are assembled by successive migrations and extinctions of species. In the model, species are interacting with each other. The intensity of the interaction between each pair of species is denoted by an interaction coefficient. At each time step, a new species is introduced to the system with randomly assigned interaction coefficients. If the sum of the coefficients, which we call the fitness of a species, is negative, the species goes extinct. The species-lifetime distribution is found to be well characterized by a stretched exponential function with an exponent close to 1/2. This profile agrees not only with more realistic population dynamics models but also with fossil records. We also find that an age-independent and inversely diversity-dependent mortality, which is confirmed in the simulation, is a key mechanism accounting for the distribution. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

  8. Bayesian Joint Modeling of Multiple Brain Functional Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Lukemire, Joshua; Kundu, Suprateek; Pagnoni, Giuseppe; Guo, Ying

    2017-01-01

    Brain function is organized in coordinated modes of spatio-temporal activity (functional networks) exhibiting an intrinsic baseline structure with variations under different experimental conditions. Existing approaches for uncovering such network structures typically do not explicitly model shared and differential patterns across networks, thus potentially reducing the detection power. We develop an integrative modeling approach for jointly modeling multiple brain networks across experimental...

  9. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  10. New validation metrics for models with multiple correlated responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Wei; Chen, Wei; Jiang, Zhen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Liu, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Validating models with correlated multivariate outputs involves the comparison of multiple stochastic quantities. Considering both uncertainty and correlations among multiple responses from model and physical observations imposes challenges. Existing marginal comparison methods and the hypothesis testing-based methods either ignore correlations among responses or only reach Boolean conclusions (yes or no) without accounting for the amount of discrepancy between a model and the underlying reality. A new validation metric is needed to quantitatively characterize the overall agreement of multiple responses considering correlations among responses and uncertainty in both model predictions and physical observations. In this paper, by extending the concept of “area metric” and the “u-pooling method” developed for validating a single response, we propose new model validation metrics for validating correlated multiple responses using the multivariate probability integral transformation (PIT). One new metric is the PIT area metric for validating multi-responses at a single validation site. The other is the t-pooling metric that allows for pooling observations of multiple responses observed at multiple validation sites to assess the global predictive capability. The proposed metrics have many favorable properties that are well suited for validation assessment of models with correlated responses. The two metrics are examined and compared with the direct area metric and the marginal u-pooling method respectively through numerical case studies and an engineering example to illustrate their validity and potential benefits

  11. Entrepreneurial intention modeling using hierarchical multiple regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Jeger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to identify the contribution of effectuation dimensions to the predictive power of the entrepreneurial intention model over and above that which can be accounted for by other predictors selected and confirmed in previous studies. As is often the case in social and behavioral studies, some variables are likely to be highly correlated with each other. Therefore, the relative amount of variance in the criterion variable explained by each of the predictors depends on several factors such as the order of variable entry and sample specifics. The results show the modest predictive power of two dimensions of effectuation prior to the introduction of the theory of planned behavior elements. The article highlights the main advantages of applying hierarchical regression in social sciences as well as in the specific context of entrepreneurial intention formation, and addresses some of the potential pitfalls that this type of analysis entails.

  12. Near infra-red spectroscopy quantitative modelling of bivalve protein, lipid and glycogen composition using single-species versus multi-species calibration and validation sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Jill K.; Maher, William A.; Purss, Matthew B. J.

    2018-03-01

    Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) quantitative modelling was used to measure the protein, lipid and glycogen composition of five marine bivalve species (Saccostrea glomerata, Ostrea angasi, Crassostrea gigas, Mytilus galloprovincialis and Anadara trapezia) from multiple locations and seasons. Predictive models were produced for each component using individual species and aggregated sample populations for the three oyster species (S. glomerata, O. angasi and C. gigas) and for all five bivalve species. Whole animal tissues were freeze dried, ground to > 20 μm and scanned by NIRS. Protein, lipid and glycogen composition were determined by traditional chemical analyses and calibration models developed to allow rapid NIRS-measurement of these components in the five bivalve species. Calibration modelling was performed using wavelet selection, genetic algorithms and partial least squares analysis. Model quality was assessed using RPIQ and RMESP. For protein composition, single species model results had RPIQ values between 2.4 and 3.5 and RMSEP between 8.6 and 18%, the three oyster model had an RPIQ of 2.6 and an RMSEP of 10.8% and the five bivalve species had an RPIQ of 3.6 and RMSEP of 8.7% respectively. For lipid composition, single species models achieved RPIQ values between 2.9 and 5.3 with RMSEP between 9.1 and 11.2%, the oyster model had an RPIQ of 3.6 and RMSEP of 6.8 and the five bivalve model had an RPIQ of 5.2 and RMSEP of 6.8% respectively. For glycogen composition, the single species models had RPIQs between 3.8 and 18.9 with RMSEP between 3.5 and 9.2%, the oyster model had an RPIQ of 5.5 and RMSEP of 7.1% and the five bivalve model had an RPIQ of 4 and RMSEP of 7.6% respectively. Comparison between individual species models and aggregated models for three oyster species and five bivalve species for each component indicate that aggregating data from like species produces high quality models with robust and reliable quantitative application. The benefit of

  13. Challenges and perspectives for species distribution modelling in the neotropics

    OpenAIRE

    Kamino, Luciana H. Y.; Stehmann, João Renato; Amaral, Silvana; De Marco, Paulo; Rangel, Thiago F.; de Siqueira, Marinez F.; De Giovanni, Renato; Hortal, Joaquín

    2011-01-01

    The workshop ‘Species distribution models: applications, challenges and perspectives’ held at Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 29–30 August 2011, aimed to review the state-of-the-art in species distribution modelling (SDM) in the neotropical realm. It brought together researchers in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation, with different backgrounds and research interests. The application of SDM in the megadiverse neotropics—where data on species occurrences are scarce—presents several chal...

  14. Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gotelli, Nicholas J; Anderson, Marti J; Arita, Hector T

    2009-01-01

    in macroecology do not make quantitative predictions, and they do not incorporate interactions among multiple forces. As an alternative, we propose a mechanistic modelling approach. We describe computer simulation models of the stochastic origin, spread, and extinction of species' geographical ranges......) between observed data and model predictions, as well as the estimation, optimization and interpretation of the model parameters. The simulation approach offers new insights into the origin and maintenance of species richness patterns, and may provide a common framework for investigating the effects......Understanding the causes of spatial variation in species richness is a major research focus of biogeography and macroecology. Gridded environmental data and species richness maps have been used in increasingly sophisticated curve-fitting analyses, but these methods have not brought us much closer...

  15. Species distribution models as a tool to estimate reproductive parameters: a case study with a passerine bird species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brambilla, Mattia; Ficetola, Gentile F

    2012-07-01

    1. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) assess relationships between species distribution data and environmental features, to evaluate the environmental suitability (ES) of a given area for a species, by providing a measure of the probability of presence. If the output of SDMs represents the relationships between habitat features and species performance well, SDM results can be related also to other key parameters of populations, including reproductive parameters. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated whether SDM results can be used as a proxy of reproductive parameters (breeding output, territory size) in red-backed shrikes (Lanius collurio). 2. The distribution of 726 shrike territories in Northern Italy was obtained through multiple focused surveys; for a subset of pairs, we also measured territory area and number of fledged juveniles. We used Maximum Entropy modelling to build a SDM on the basis of territory distribution. We used generalized least squares and spatial generalized mixed models to relate territory size and number of fledged juveniles to SDM suitability, while controlling for spatial autocorrelation. 3. Species distribution models predicted shrike distribution very well. Territory size was negatively related to suitability estimated through SDM, while the number of fledglings significantly increased with the suitability of the territory. This was true also when SDM was built using only spatially and temporally independent data. 4. Results show a clear relationship between ES estimated through presence-only SDMs and two key parameters related to species' reproduction, suggesting that suitability estimated by SDM, and habitat quality determining reproduction parameters in our model system, are correlated. Our study shows the potential use of SDMs to infer important fitness parameters; this information can have great importance in management and conservation. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological

  16. Impacts of Species Misidentification on Species Distribution Modeling with Presence-Only Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Costa

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Spatial records of species are commonly misidentified, which can change the predicted distribution of a species obtained from a species distribution model (SDM. Experiments were undertaken to predict the distribution of real and simulated species using MaxEnt and presence-only data “contaminated” with varying rates of misidentification error. Additionally, the difference between the niche of the target and contaminating species was varied. The results show that species misidentification errors may act to contract or expand the predicted distribution of a species while shifting the predicted distribution towards that of the contaminating species. Furthermore the magnitude of the effects was positively related to the ecological distance between the species’ niches and the size of the error rates. Critically, the magnitude of the effects was substantial even when using small error rates, smaller than common average rates reported in the literature, which may go unnoticed while using a standard evaluation method, such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Finally, the effects outlined were shown to impact negatively on practical applications that use SDMs to identify priority areas, commonly selected for various purposes such as management. The results highlight that species misidentification should not be neglected in species distribution modeling.

  17. Multiple strong postmating and intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers isolate florally diverse species of Jaltomata (Solanaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyun, Jamie L; Moyle, Leonie C

    2017-06-01

    Divergence in phenotypic traits often contributes to premating isolation between lineages, but could also promote isolation at postmating stages. Phenotypic differences could directly result in mechanical isolation or hybrids with maladapted traits; alternatively, when alleles controlling these trait differences pleiotropically affect other components of development, differentiation could indirectly produce genetic incompatibilities in hybrids. Here, we determined the strength of nine postmating and intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers among 10 species of Jaltomata (Solanaceae), including species with highly divergent floral traits. To evaluate the relative importance of floral trait diversification for the strength of these postmating barriers, we assessed their relationship to floral divergence, genetic distance, geographical context, and ecological differences, using conventional tests and a new linear-mixed modeling approach. Despite close evolutionary relationships, all species pairs showed moderate to strong isolation. Nonetheless, floral trait divergence was not a consistent predictor of the strength of isolation; instead this was best explained by genetic distance, although we found evidence for mechanical isolation in one species, and a positive relationship between floral trait divergence and fruit set isolation across species pairs. Overall, our data indicate that intrinsic postzygotic isolation is more strongly associated with genome-wide genetic differentiation, rather than floral divergence. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  18. The Hyalella (Crustacea: Amphipoda) species cloud of the ancient Lake Titicaca originated from multiple colonizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamowicz, Sarah J; Marinone, María Cristina; Menu-Marque, Silvina; Martin, Jeffrey W; Allen, Daniel C; Pyle, Michelle N; De Los Ríos, Patricio; Sobel, Crystal N; Ibañez, Carla; Pinto, Julio; Witt, Jonathan D S

    2018-03-12

    Ancient lakes are renowned for their exceptional diversity of endemic species. As model systems for the study of sympatric speciation, it is necessary to understand whether a given hypothesized species flock is of monophyletic or polyphyletic origin. Here, we present the first molecular characterization of the Hyalella (Crustacea: Amphipoda) species complex of Lake Titicaca, using COI and 28S DNA sequences, including samples from the connected Small and Large Lakes that comprise Lake Titicaca as well as from a broader survey of southern South American sites. At least five evolutionarily distant lineages are present within Lake Titicaca, which were estimated to have diverged from one another 12-20 MYA. These major lineages are dispersed throughout the broader South American Hyalella phylogeny, with each lineage representing at least one independent colonization of the lake. Moreover, complex genetic relationships are revealed between Lake Titicaca individuals and those from surrounding water bodies, which may be explained by repeated dispersal into and out of the lake, combined with parallel intralacustrine diversification within two separate clades. Although further work in deeper waters will be required to determine the number of species present and modes of diversification, our results strongly indicate that this amphipod species cloud is polyphyletic with a complex geographic history. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Correlations in multiple production on nuclei and Glauber model of multiple scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zoller, V.R.; Nikolaev, N.N.

    1982-01-01

    Critical analysis of possibility for describing correlation phenomena during multiple production on nuclei within the framework of the Glauber multiple seattering model generalized for particle production processes with Capella, Krziwinski and Shabelsky has been performed. It was mainly concluded that the suggested generalization of the Glauber model gives dependences on Ng(Np) (where Ng-the number of ''grey'' tracess, and Np-the number of protons flying out of nucleus) and, eventually, on #betta# (where #betta#-the number of intranuclear interactions) contradicting experience. Independent of choice of relation between #betta# and Ng(Np) in the model the rapidity corrletor Rsub(eta) is overstated in the central region and understated in the region of nucleus fragmentation. In mean multiplicities these two contradictions of experience are disguised with random compensation and agreement with experience in Nsub(S) (function of Ng) cannot be an argument in favour of the model. It is concluded that eiconal model doesn't permit to quantitatively describe correlation phenomena during the multiple production on nuclei

  20. Multiple Response Regression for Gaussian Mixture Models with Known Labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wonyul; Du, Ying; Sun, Wei; Hayes, D Neil; Liu, Yufeng

    2012-12-01

    Multiple response regression is a useful regression technique to model multiple response variables using the same set of predictor variables. Most existing methods for multiple response regression are designed for modeling homogeneous data. In many applications, however, one may have heterogeneous data where the samples are divided into multiple groups. Our motivating example is a cancer dataset where the samples belong to multiple cancer subtypes. In this paper, we consider modeling the data coming from a mixture of several Gaussian distributions with known group labels. A naive approach is to split the data into several groups according to the labels and model each group separately. Although it is simple, this approach ignores potential common structures across different groups. We propose new penalized methods to model all groups jointly in which the common and unique structures can be identified. The proposed methods estimate the regression coefficient matrix, as well as the conditional inverse covariance matrix of response variables. Asymptotic properties of the proposed methods are explored. Through numerical examples, we demonstrate that both estimation and prediction can be improved by modeling all groups jointly using the proposed methods. An application to a glioblastoma cancer dataset reveals some interesting common and unique gene relationships across different cancer subtypes.

  1. Global Existence Analysis of Cross-Diffusion Population Systems for Multiple Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiuqing; Daus, Esther S.; Jüngel, Ansgar

    2018-02-01

    The existence of global-in-time weak solutions to reaction-cross-diffusion systems for an arbitrary number of competing population species is proved. The equations can be derived from an on-lattice random-walk model with general transition rates. In the case of linear transition rates, it extends the two-species population model of Shigesada, Kawasaki, and Teramoto. The equations are considered in a bounded domain with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. The existence proof is based on a refined entropy method and a new approximation scheme. Global existence follows under a detailed balance or weak cross-diffusion condition. The detailed balance condition is related to the symmetry of the mobility matrix, which mirrors Onsager's principle in thermodynamics. Under detailed balance (and without reaction) the entropy is nonincreasing in time, but counter-examples show that the entropy may increase initially if detailed balance does not hold.

  2. Integrative modelling reveals mechanisms linking productivity and plant species richness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grace, James B.; Anderson, T. Michael; Seabloom, Eric W.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Adler, Peter B.; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Hillebrand, Helmut; Lind, Eric M.; Pärtel, Meelis; Bakker, Jonathan D.; Buckley, Yvonne M.; Crawley, Michael J.; Damschen, Ellen I.; Davies, Kendi F.; Fay, Philip A.; Firn, Jennifer; Gruner, Daniel S.; Hector, Andy; Knops, Johannes M. H.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Morgan, John W.; Orrock, John L.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Smith, Melinda D.

    2016-01-01

    How ecosystem productivity and species richness are interrelated is one of the most debated subjects in the history of ecology. Decades of intensive study have yet to discern the actual mechanisms behind observed global patterns. Here, by integrating the predictions from multiple theories into a

  3. Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crall, Alycia W; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Panke, Brendon; Young, Nick; Renz, Mark; Morisette, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Managers need new tools for detecting the movement and spread of nonnative, invasive species. Habitat suitability models are a popular tool for mapping the potential distribution of current invaders, but the ability of these models to prioritize monitoring efforts has not been tested in the field. We tested the utility of an iterative sampling design (i.e., models based on field observations used to guide subsequent field data collection to improve the model), hypothesizing that model performance would increase when new data were gathered from targeted sampling using criteria based on the initial model results. We also tested the ability of habitat suitability models to predict the spread of invasive species, hypothesizing that models would accurately predict occurrences in the field, and that the use of targeted sampling would detect more species with less sampling effort than a nontargeted approach. We tested these hypotheses on two species at the state scale (Centaurea stoebe and Pastinaca sativa) in Wisconsin (USA), and one genus at the regional scale (Tamarix) in the western United States. These initial data were merged with environmental data at 30-m2 resolution for Wisconsin and 1-km2 resolution for the western United States to produce our first iteration models. We stratified these initial models to target field sampling and compared our models and success at detecting our species of interest to other surveys being conducted during the same field season (i.e., nontargeted sampling). Although more data did not always improve our models based on correct classification rate (CCR), sensitivity, specificity, kappa, or area under the curve (AUC), our models generated from targeted sampling data always performed better than models generated from nontargeted data. For Wisconsin species, the model described actual locations in the field fairly well (kappa = 0.51, 0.19, P habitat suitability models can be highly useful tools for guiding invasive species monitoring

  4. Efficient Adoption and Assessment of Multiple Process Improvement Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Jeners

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A variety of reference models such as CMMI, COBIT or ITIL support IT organizations to improve their processes. These process improvement reference models (IRMs cover different domains such as IT development, IT Services or IT Governance but also share some similarities. As there are organizations that address multiple domains and need to coordinate their processes in their improvement we present MoSaIC, an approach to support organizations to efficiently adopt and conform to multiple IRMs. Our solution realizes a semantic integration of IRMs based on common meta-models. The resulting IRM integration model enables organizations to efficiently implement and asses multiple IRMs and to benefit from synergy effects.

  5. Adaptive Active Noise Suppression Using Multiple Model Switching Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quanzhen Huang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Active noise suppression for applications where the system response varies with time is a difficult problem. The computation burden for the existing control algorithms with online identification is heavy and easy to cause control system instability. A new active noise control algorithm is proposed in this paper by employing multiple model switching strategy for secondary path varying. The computation is significantly reduced. Firstly, a noise control system modeling method is proposed for duct-like applications. Then a multiple model adaptive control algorithm is proposed with a new multiple model switching strategy based on filter-u least mean square (FULMS algorithm. Finally, the proposed algorithm was implemented on Texas Instruments digital signal processor (DSP TMS320F28335 and real time experiments were done to test the proposed algorithm and FULMS algorithm with online identification. Experimental verification tests show that the proposed algorithm is effective with good noise suppression performance.

  6. Multiple multilocus DNA barcodes from the plastid genome discriminate plant species equally well.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aron J Fazekas

    Full Text Available A universal barcode system for land plants would be a valuable resource, with potential utility in fields as diverse as ecology, floristics, law enforcement and industry. However, the application of plant barcoding has been constrained by a lack of consensus regarding the most variable and technically practical DNA region(s. We compared eight candidate plant barcoding regions from the plastome and one from the mitochondrial genome for how well they discriminated the monophyly of 92 species in 32 diverse genera of land plants (N = 251 samples. The plastid markers comprise portions of five coding (rpoB, rpoC1, rbcL, matK and 23S rDNA and three non-coding (trnH-psbA, atpF-atpH, and psbK-psbI loci. Our survey included several taxonomically complex groups, and in all cases we examined multiple populations and species. The regions differed in their ability to discriminate species, and in ease of retrieval, in terms of amplification and sequencing success. Single locus resolution ranged from 7% (23S rDNA to 59% (trnH-psbA of species with well-supported monophyly. Sequence recovery rates were related primarily to amplification success (85-100% for plastid loci, with matK requiring the greatest effort to achieve reasonable recovery (88% using 10 primer pairs. Several loci (matK, psbK-psbI, trnH-psbA were problematic for generating fully bidirectional sequences. Setting aside technical issues related to amplification and sequencing, combining the more variable plastid markers provided clear benefits for resolving species, although with diminishing returns, as all combinations assessed using four to seven regions had only marginally different success rates (69-71%; values that were approached by several two- and three-region combinations. This performance plateau may indicate fundamental upper limits on the precision of species discrimination that is possible with DNA barcoding systems that include moderate numbers of plastid markers. Resolution to the

  7. Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellissier, Loïc; Rohr, Rudolf P; Ndiribe, Charlotte; Pradervand, Jean-Nicolas; Salamin, Nicolas; Guisan, Antoine; Wisz, Mary

    2013-11-01

    The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradients is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic filtering and stochastic forces. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose using food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve species distribution and community forecasts. The trophic interaction network between butterfly larvae and host plant was phylogenetically structured and driven by host plant nitrogen content allowing forecasting the food web model to unknown interactions links. This combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may occur. Our combined approach points toward a promising direction for modeling the spatial variation in entire species interaction networks.

  8. Welding fumes from stainless steel gas metal arc processes contain multiple manganese chemical species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Michael; Stone, Samuel; Chen, Bean

    2010-05-01

    Fumes from a group of gas metal arc welding (GMAW) processes used on stainless steel were generated using three different metal transfer modes and four different shield gases. The objective was to identify and measure manganese (Mn) species in the fumes, and identify processes that are minimal generators of Mn species. The robotic welding system was operated in short-circuit (SC) mode (Ar/CO2 and He/Ar), axial spray (AXS) mode (Ar/O2 and Ar/CO2), and pulsed axial-spray (PAXS) mode (Ar/O2). The fumes were analyzed for Mn by a sequential extraction process followed by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES) analysis, and by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Total elemental Mn, iron (Fe), chromium (Cr) and nickel (Ni) were separately measured after aqua regia digestion and ICP-AES analysis. Soluble Mn2+, Fe2+, Fe3+, and Ni2+ in a simple biological buffer (phosphate-buffered saline) were determined at pH 7.2 and 5.0 after 2 h incubation at 37 C by ion chromatography. Results indicate that Mn was present in soluble form, acid-soluble form, and acid-soluble form after reduction by hydroxylamine, which represents soluble Mn0 and Mn2+ compounds, other Mn2+ compounds, and (Mn3+ and Mn4+) compounds, respectively. The dominant fraction was the acid-soluble Mn2+ fraction, but results varied with the process and shield gas. Soluble Mn mass percent in the fume ranged from 0.2 to 0.9%, acid-soluble Mn2+ compounds ranged from 2.6 to 9.3%, and acid plus reducing agent-soluble (Mn3+ and Mn4+) compounds ranged from 0.6 to 5.1%. Total Mn composition ranged from 7 to 15%. XRD results showed fumes had a crystalline content of 90-99% Fe3O4, and showed evidence of multiple Mn oxides, but overlaps and weak signals limited identification. Small amounts of the Mn2+ in the fume (welding process. Mn generation rates for the fractions were tabulated, and the influence of ozone is discussed. The conclusions are that exposures to welding fumes include multiple Mn species, both

  9. Integrating species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeography for two species of Alpine Primula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorr, G; Holstein, N; Pearman, P B; Guisan, A; Kadereit, J W

    2012-06-01

    The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data.

  10. Multiple mortality modeling in Poisson Lee-Carter framework

    OpenAIRE

    D'Amato, V.; Haberman, S.; Piscopo, G.; Russolillo, M.; Trapani, L.

    2016-01-01

    The academic literature in longevity field has recently focused on models for detecting multiple population trends (D'Amato et al., 2012b; Njenga and Sherris, 2011; Russolillo et al., 2011, etc.). In particular, increasing interest has been shown about "related" population dynamics or "parent" populations characterized by similar socioeconomic conditions and eventually also by geographical proximity. These studies suggest dependence across multiple populations and common long-run relationship...

  11. Study of three interesting Amanita species from Thailand: Morphology, multiple-gene phylogeny and toxin analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjarong Thongbai

    Full Text Available Amanita ballerina and A. brunneitoxicaria spp. nov. are introduced from Thailand. Amanita fuligineoides is also reported for the first time from Thailand, increasing the known distribution of this taxon. Together, those findings support our view that many taxa are yet to be discovered in the region. While both morphological characters and a multiple-gene phylogeny clearly place A. brunneitoxicaria and A. fuligineoides in sect. Phalloideae (Fr. Quél., the placement of A. ballerina is problematic. On the one hand, the morphology of A. ballerina shows clear affinities with stirps Limbatula of sect. Lepidella. On the other hand, in a multiple-gene phylogeny including taxa of all sections in subg. Lepidella, A. ballerina and two other species, including A. zangii, form a well-supported clade sister to the Phalloideae sensu Bas 1969, which include the lethal "death caps" and "destroying angels". Together, the A. ballerina-A. zangii clade and the Phalloideae sensu Bas 1969 also form a well-supported clade. We therefore screened for two of the most notorious toxins by HPLC-MS analysis of methanolic extracts from the basidiomata. Interestingly, neither α-amanitin nor phalloidin was found in A. ballerina, whereas Amanita fuligineoides was confirmed to contain both α-amanitin and phalloidin, and A. brunneitoxicaria contained only α-amanitin. Together with unique morphological characteristics, the position in the phylogeny indicates that A. ballerina is either an important link in the evolution of the deadly Amanita sect. Phalloideae species, or a member of a new section also including A. zangii.

  12. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.

    2012-12-01

    Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding of environmental dynamics at the catchment scale, which can be attributed to difficulties in measuring and representing the heterogeneity encountered in natural systems. This presentation advocates using the method of multiple working hypotheses for systematic and stringent testing of model alternatives in hydrology. We discuss how the multiple hypothesis approach provides the flexibility to formulate alternative representations (hypotheses) describing both individual processes and the overall system. When combined with incisive diagnostics to scrutinize multiple model representations against observed data, this provides hydrologists with a powerful and systematic approach for model development and improvement. Multiple hypothesis frameworks also support a broader coverage of the model hypothesis space and hence improve the quantification of predictive uncertainty arising from system and component non-identifiabilities. As part of discussing the advantages and limitations of multiple hypothesis frameworks, we critically review major contemporary challenges in hydrological hypothesis-testing, including exploiting different types of data to investigate the fidelity of alternative process representations, accounting for model structure ambiguities arising from major uncertainties in environmental data, quantifying regional differences in dominant hydrological processes, and the grander challenge of understanding the self-organization and optimality principles that may functionally explain and describe the heterogeneities evident in most environmental systems. We assess recent progress in these research directions, and how new advances are possible using multiple hypothesis

  13. Reactive Oxygen Species along with Reactive Nitrogen Species (ROS/RNS) as the Main Cause of Multiple Sclerosis

    OpenAIRE

    Somayeh Zaminpira; Sorush Niknamian

    2017-01-01

    Multiple Sclerosis is a condition of demyelination of the nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord. It is possible that multiple factors are involved in causing multiple sclerosis, including DNA defects in nuclear and mitochondrial genomes, viral infection, hypoxia, oxidative stress, lack of sunlight, and increased macrophages and lymphocytes in the brain. This meta-analysis has gone through many researches and reviews to find the similarities and differences in the cause of this disease. The...

  14. Improving the assessment and reporting on rare and endangered species through species distribution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Sousa-Silva

    2014-12-01

    The objective was to highlight the potential of SDMs for the assessment of threatened species within the periodical report on their conservation status. We used a spatially explicit modeling approach, which predicts species distributions by spatially combining two SDMs: one fitted with climate data alone and the other fitted solely with landscape variables. A comparison between the modeled distribution and the range obtained by classical methods (minimum convex polygon and Range Tool is also presented. Our results show that while data-based approaches only consider the species known distribution, model-based methods allow a more complete evaluation of species distributions and their dynamics, as well as of the underlying pressures. This will ultimately improve the accuracy and usefulness of assessments in the context of EU reporting obligations.

  15. Modeling microstructural evolution of multiple texture components during recrystallization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vandermeer, R.A.; Juul Jensen, D.

    1994-01-01

    Models were formulated in an effort to characterize recrystallization in materials with multiple texture components. The models are based on a microstructural path methodology (MPM). Experimentally the microstructural evolution of conmmercial aluminum during recrystallization was characterized...... using stereological point and lineal measurements of microstructural properties in combination with EBSP analysis for orientation determinations. The potential of the models to describe the observed recrystallization behavior of heavily cold-rolled commercial aluminum was demonstrated. A successful MPM...

  16. Bayesian modeling of bacterial growth for multiple populations

    OpenAIRE

    Palacios, Ana Paula; Marín, J. Miguel; Quinto, Emiliano J.; Wiper, Michael P.

    2014-01-01

    Bacterial growth models are commonly used for the prediction of microbial safety and the shelf life of perishable foods. Growth is affected by several environmental factors such as temperature, acidity level and salt concentration. In this study, we develop two models to describe bacterial growth for multiple populations under both equal and different environmental conditions. Firstly, a semi-parametric model based on the Gompertz equation is proposed. Assuming that the parameters of the Gomp...

  17. Bayesian modelling of bacterial growth for multiple populations

    OpenAIRE

    Palacios, Ana Paula; Marín Díazaraque, Juan Miguel; Quinto, Emiliano; Wiper, Michael Peter

    2012-01-01

    Bacterial growth models are commonly used for the prediction of microbial safety and the shelf life of perishable foods. Growth is affected by several environmental factors such as temperature, acidity level and salt concentration. In this study, we develop two models to describe bacterial growth for multiple populations under both equal and different environmental conditions. Firstly, a semi-parametric model based on the Gompertz equation is proposed. Assuming that the parameters of the Gomp...

  18. Combination of multiple resistance traits from wild relative species in Chrysanthemum via trigeneric hybridization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanming Deng

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With the objective of combining multiple resistant traits from wild relative species in florist's chrysanthemums, trigeneric hybridization was conducted by crossing two intergeneric F(1 hybrids Chrysanthemum grandiflorum × Artemisia vulgaris and Chrysanthemum crassum × Crossostephium chinense. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To assess post-pollination phenomena, we investigated pollen germination on the stigma and embryo development, using fluorescence and scanning electron microscopy and paraffin-embedded sections, respectively. We selected eight putative trigeneric hybrid lines that showed the greatest morphological differences from the parents from among the progeny derived via embryo rescue. The hybridity of one trigeneric hybrid was further confirmed by fluorescent genomic in situ hybridization; in addition, the aphid resistance and salt tolerance of this hybrid were higher than those of the chrysanthemum parent and the C. grandiflorum × A. vulgaris F(1 hybrid, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The enhanced aphid resistance of the hybrid line reflects the inheritance of chromosomes from A. vulgaris, which carries genes that encode bioactive components. The enhanced salt tolerance of the trigeneric hybrid is attributable to inheritance of genetic materials from Chrysanthemum crassum and Crossostephium chinense, which act to maintain the compartmentation of Na(+ and K(+ ions and their selective transportation among different organs to avert deleterious effects and protect the photosynthetic apparatus. The results indicate that trigeneric hybridization between different bigeneric hybrids is a promising method for combination of multiple stress-resistance traits for improvement of chrysanthemum.

  19. Combination of Multiple Resistance Traits from Wild Relative Species in Chrysanthemum via Trigeneric Hybridization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yanming; Jiang, Jiafu; Chen, Sumei; Teng, Nianjun; Song, Aiping; Guan, Zhiyong; Fang, Weimin; Chen, Fadi

    2012-01-01

    Background With the objective of combining multiple resistant traits from wild relative species in florist’s chrysanthemums, trigeneric hybridization was conducted by crossing two intergeneric F1 hybrids Chrysanthemum grandiflorum × Artemisia vulgaris and Chrysanthemum crassum × Crossostephium chinense. Methodology/Principal Findings To assess post-pollination phenomena, we investigated pollen germination on the stigma and embryo development, using fluorescence and scanning electron microscopy and paraffin-embedded sections, respectively. We selected eight putative trigeneric hybrid lines that showed the greatest morphological differences from the parents from among the progeny derived via embryo rescue. The hybridity of one trigeneric hybrid was further confirmed by fluorescent genomic in situ hybridization; in addition, the aphid resistance and salt tolerance of this hybrid were higher than those of the chrysanthemum parent and the C. grandiflorum × A. vulgaris F1 hybrid, respectively. Conclusions/Significance The enhanced aphid resistance of the hybrid line reflects the inheritance of chromosomes from A. vulgaris, which carries genes that encode bioactive components. The enhanced salt tolerance of the trigeneric hybrid is attributable to inheritance of genetic materials from Chrysanthemum crassum and Crossostephium chinense, which act to maintain the compartmentation of Na+ and K+ ions and their selective transportation among different organs to avert deleterious effects and protect the photosynthetic apparatus. The results indicate that trigeneric hybridization between different bigeneric hybrids is a promising method for combination of multiple stress-resistance traits for improvement of chrysanthemum. PMID:22952958

  20. Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Tang, Ling; Sapiano, Matthew; Maggioni, Viviana; Wu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

  1. Enhancement of innate and adaptive immune functions by multiple Echinacea species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Zili; Liu, Yi; Wu, Lankun; Senchina, David S; Wurtele, Eve S; Murphy, Patricia A; Kohut, Marian L; Cunnick, Joan E

    2007-09-01

    Echinacea preparations are commonly used as nonspecific immunomodulatory agents. Alcohol extracts from three widely used Echinacea species, Echinacea angustifolia, Echinacea pallida, and Echinacea purpurea, were investigated for immunomodulating properties. The three Echinacea species demonstrated a broad difference in concentrations of individual lipophilic amides and hydrophilic caffeic acid derivatives. Mice were gavaged once a day (for 7 days) with one of the Echinacea extracts (130 mg/kg) or vehicle and immunized with sheep red blood cells (sRBC) 4 days prior to collection of immune cells for multiple immunological assays. The three herb extracts induced similar, but differential, changes in the percentage of immune cell populations and their biological functions, including increased percentages of CD49+ and CD19+ lymphocytes in spleen and natural killer cell cytotoxicity. Antibody response to sRBC was significantly increased equally by extracts of all three Echinacea species. Concanavalin A-stimulated splenocytes from E. angustifolia- and E. pallida-treated mice demonstrated significantly higher T cell proliferation. In addition, the Echinacea treatment significantly altered the cytokine production by mitogen-stimulated splenic cells. The three herbal extracts significantly increased interferon-alpha production, but inhibited the release of tumor necrosis factor-gamma and interleukin (IL)-1beta. Only E. angustifolia- and E. pallida-treated mice demonstrated significantly higher production of IL-4 and increased IL-10 production. Taken together, these findings demonstrated that Echinacea is a wide-spectrum immunomodulator that modulates both innate and adaptive immune responses. In particular, E. angustifolia or E. pallida may have more anti-inflammatory potential.

  2. Bovine digital dermatitis: possible pathogenic consortium consisting of Dichelobacter nodosus and multiple Treponema species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Marianne; Capion, Nynne; Klitgaard, Kirstine; Rogdo, Torunn; Fjeldaas, Terje; Boye, Mette; Jensen, Tim K

    2012-11-09

    Bovine digital dermatitis (DD) is a multifactorial disease involving at least one or more treponemal species. Virulent phylotypes of Treponema and other infectious agents contributing to disease etiology still remain to be identified. This study addressed these questions by analyzing the prevalence and distribution of seventeen phylotypes of Treponema in DD lesions by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) applying species/phylotype-specific oligonucleotide probes. In situ hybridization for Dichelobacter nodosus, the cause of ovine footrot, was additionally performed. We sampled 90 biopsies of DD lesions originating from one Norwegian and six Danish dairy herds, and 24 tissue samples of healthy skin. All lesions revealed intermingled infections with multiple Treponema phylotypes (mean>7). In six herds, the mean number of phylotypes identified varied between 12 and 15. D. nodosus was present in forty-nine (51%) of the lesions and in three of the apparently healthy skin samples. Two "healthy" samples also contained Treponema spp. and D. nodosus, and were histopathologically categorized as subclinical DD. Another eighteen of the "healthy" skin samples showed serious epidermal hyperplasia but were not colonized by bacteria while only four samples were found normal. We hypothesise that external noxious stimuli allow D. nodosus to break down the epidermal barrier creating a suitable environment for the secondary invaders, Treponema species, which gradually take over the infection site. The variety and different distribution of treponemes in the DD lesions observed in this study, suggests that most of the Treponema phylotypes have the potential to be pathogenic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Comparing the performance of species distribution models of

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valle , M.; van Katwijk, M.M.; de Jong, D.J.; Bouma, T.; Schipper, A.M.; Chust, G.; Benito, B.M.; Garmendia, J.M.; Borja, A.

    2013-01-01

    Intertidal seagrasses show high variability in their extent and location, with local extinctions and (re-)colonizations being inherent in their population dynamics. Suitable habitats are identified usually using Species Distribution Models (SDM), based upon the overall distribution of the species;

  4. Where is positional uncertainty a problem for species distribution modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naimi, N.; Hamm, N.A.S.; Groen, T.A.; Skidmore, A.K.; Toxopeus, A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Species data held in museum and herbaria, survey data and opportunistically observed data are a substantial information resource. A key challenge in using these data is the uncertainty about where an observation is located. This is important when the data are used for species distribution modelling

  5. A Multiple Model Prediction Algorithm for CNC Machine Wear PHM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huimin Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The 2010 PHM data challenge focuses on the remaining useful life (RUL estimation for cutters of a high speed CNC milling machine using measurements from dynamometer, accelerometer, and acoustic emission sensors. We present a multiple model approach for wear depth estimation of milling machine cutters using the provided data. The feature selection, initial wear estimation and multiple model fusion components of the proposed algorithm are explained in details and compared with several alternative methods using the training data. The final submission ranked #2 among professional and student participants and the method is applicable to other data driven PHM problems.

  6. Stock assessment model outputs for ICCAT (International) managed species

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Includes outputs from the various models run in the evaluation of stock status for species managed by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic...

  7. The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibaud Rougier

    Full Text Available Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa, an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local

  8. Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moor, Helen; Hylander, Kristoffer; Norberg, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

  9. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Guisan, Antoine

    2006-01-01

    Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in mo...... contribution; and (5) improved model evaluation. The challenges discussed in this essay do not preclude the need for developments of other areas of research in this field. However, they are critical for allowing the science of species distribution modelling to move forward.......Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence...

  10. mMWeb--an online platform for employing multiple ecological niche modeling algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Huijie; Lin, Congtian; Ji, Liqiang; Jiang, Zhigang

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the ecological niche and potential habitat distribution of a given organism is one of the central domains of ecological and biogeographical research. A wide variety of modeling techniques have been developed for this purpose. In order to implement these models, the users must prepare a specific runtime environment for each model, learn how to use multiple model platforms, and prepare data in a different format each time. Additionally, often model results are difficult to interpret, and a standardized method for comparing model results across platforms does not exist. We developed a free and open source online platform, the multi-models web-based (mMWeb) platform, to address each of these problems, providing a novel environment in which the user can implement and compare multiple ecological niche model (ENM) algorithms. mMWeb combines 18 existing ENMs and their corresponding algorithms and provides a uniform procedure for modeling the potential habitat niche of a species via a common web browser. mMWeb uses Java Native Interface (JNI), Java R Interface to combine the different ENMs and executes multiple tasks in parallel on a super computer. The cross-platform, user-friendly interface of mMWeb simplifies the process of building ENMs, providing an accessible and efficient environment from which to explore and compare different model algorithms.

  11. mMWeb--an online platform for employing multiple ecological niche modeling algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huijie Qiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Predicting the ecological niche and potential habitat distribution of a given organism is one of the central domains of ecological and biogeographical research. A wide variety of modeling techniques have been developed for this purpose. In order to implement these models, the users must prepare a specific runtime environment for each model, learn how to use multiple model platforms, and prepare data in a different format each time. Additionally, often model results are difficult to interpret, and a standardized method for comparing model results across platforms does not exist. We developed a free and open source online platform, the multi-models web-based (mMWeb platform, to address each of these problems, providing a novel environment in which the user can implement and compare multiple ecological niche model (ENM algorithms. METHODOLOGY: mMWeb combines 18 existing ENMs and their corresponding algorithms and provides a uniform procedure for modeling the potential habitat niche of a species via a common web browser. mMWeb uses Java Native Interface (JNI, Java R Interface to combine the different ENMs and executes multiple tasks in parallel on a super computer. The cross-platform, user-friendly interface of mMWeb simplifies the process of building ENMs, providing an accessible and efficient environment from which to explore and compare different model algorithms.

  12. A Collaborative Scheduling Model for the Supply-Hub with Multiple Suppliers and Multiple Manufacturers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment.

  13. A collaborative scheduling model for the supply-hub with multiple suppliers and multiple manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guo; Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment.

  14. A Collaborative Scheduling Model for the Supply-Hub with Multiple Suppliers and Multiple Manufacturers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment. PMID:24892104

  15. Biomass models to estimate carbon stocks for hardwood tree species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz-Peinado, R.; Montero, G.; Rio, M. del

    2012-11-01

    To estimate forest carbon pools from forest inventories it is necessary to have biomass models or biomass expansion factors. In this study, tree biomass models were developed for the main hardwood forest species in Spain: Alnus glutinosa, Castanea sativa, Ceratonia siliqua, Eucalyptus globulus, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus angustifolia, Olea europaea var. sylvestris, Populus x euramericana, Quercus canariensis, Quercus faginea, Quercus ilex, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus suber. Different tree biomass components were considered: stem with bark, branches of different sizes, above and belowground biomass. For each species, a system of equations was fitted using seemingly unrelated regression, fulfilling the additivity property between biomass components. Diameter and total height were explored as independent variables. All models included tree diameter whereas for the majority of species, total height was only considered in the stem biomass models and in some of the branch models. The comparison of the new biomass models with previous models fitted separately for each tree component indicated an improvement in the accuracy of the models. A mean reduction of 20% in the root mean square error and a mean increase in the model efficiency of 7% in comparison with recently published models. So, the fitted models allow estimating more accurately the biomass stock in hardwood species from the Spanish National Forest Inventory data. (Author) 45 refs.

  16. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  17. Processes at multiple scales affect richness and similarity of non-native plant species in mountains around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tim Seipel; Christoph Kueffer; Lisa J. Rew; Curtis C. Daehler; Aníbal Pauchard; Bridgett J. Naylor; Jake M. Alexander; Peter J. Edwards; Catherine G. Parks; Jose Ramon Arevalo; Lohengrin A. Cavieres; Hansjorg Dietz; Gabi Jakobs; Keith McDougall; Rudiger Otto; Neville. Walsh

    2012-01-01

    We compared the distribution of non-native plant species along roads in eight mountainous regions. Within each region, abundance of plant species was recorded at 41-84 sites along elevational gradients using 100-m2 plots located 0, 25 and 75 m from roadsides. We used mixed-effects models to examine how local variation in species richness and...

  18. Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. A Survey of Health Care Models that Encompass Multiple Departments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanberkel, Peter T.; Boucherie, Richardus J.; Hans, Elias W.; Hurink, Johann L.; Litvak, Nelli

    2009-01-01

    In this survey we review quantitative health care models to illustrate the extent to which they encompass multiple hospital departments. The paper provides general overviews of the relationships that exists between major hospital departments and describes how these relationships are accounted for by

  20. A survey of health care models that encompass multiple departments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanberkel, P.T.; Boucherie, Richardus J.; Hans, Elias W.; Hurink, Johann L.; Litvak, Nelli

    2010-01-01

    In this survey we review quantitative health care models to illustrate the extent to which they encompass multiple hospital departments. The paper provides general overviews of the relationships that exists between major hospital departments and describes how these relationships are accounted for by

  1. A survey of health care models that encompass multiple departments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanberkel, P.T.; Boucherie, Richardus J.; Hans, Elias W.; Hurink, Johann L.; Litvak, Nelli

    In this survey we review quantitative health care models to illustrate the extent to which they encompass multiple hospital departments. The paper provides general overviews of the relationships that exists between major hospital departments and describes how these relationships are accounted for by

  2. Geant4 models for simulation of multiple scattering

    CERN Document Server

    Ivanchenko, V N; Maire, M; Urban, L

    2010-01-01

    Recent progress in development of single and multiple scattering models within the Geant4 toolkit is presented. Different options available to users are discussed. The comparisons with the data are shown. The trade of precision versus CPU performance is discussed with the focus on LHC detectors simulation

  3. An extension of the multiple-trapping model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shkilev, V. P.

    2012-01-01

    The hopping charge transport in disordered semiconductors is considered. Using the concept of the transport energy level, macroscopic equations are derived that extend a multiple-trapping model to the case of semiconductors with both energy and spatial disorders. It is shown that, although both types of disorder can cause dispersive transport, the frequency dependence of conductivity is determined exclusively by the spatial disorder.

  4. Selecting Tools to Model Integer and Binomial Multiplication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Sarah Smitherman; Eddy, Colleen M.

    2017-01-01

    Mathematics teachers frequently provide concrete manipulatives to students during instruction; however, the rationale for using certain manipulatives in conjunction with concepts may not be explored. This article focuses on area models that are currently used in classrooms to provide concrete examples of integer and binomial multiplication. The…

  5. Estimation for the Multiple Factor Model When Data Are Missing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkbeiner, Carl

    1979-01-01

    A maximum likelihood method of estimating the parameters of the multiple factor model when data are missing from the sample is presented. A Monte Carlo study compares the method with five heuristic methods of dealing with the problem. The present method shows some advantage in accuracy of estimation. (Author/CTM)

  6. Fraction Multiplication and Division Models: A Practitioner Reference Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ervin, Heather K.

    2017-01-01

    It is well documented in literature that rational number is an important area of understanding in mathematics. Therefore, it follows that teachers and students need to have an understanding of rational number and related concepts such as fraction multiplication and division. This practitioner reference paper examines models that are important to…

  7. Validating Computational Cognitive Process Models across Multiple Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Christopher; Gluck, Kevin; Gunzelmann, Glenn; Krusmark, Michael

    2010-12-01

    Model comparison is vital to evaluating progress in the fields of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and cognitive architecture. As they mature, AGI and cognitive architectures will become increasingly capable of providing a single model that completes a multitude of tasks, some of which the model was not specifically engineered to perform. These models will be expected to operate for extended periods of time and serve functional roles in real-world contexts. Questions arise regarding how to evaluate such models appropriately, including issues pertaining to model comparison and validation. In this paper, we specifically address model validation across multiple levels of abstraction, using an existing computational process model of unmanned aerial vehicle basic maneuvering to illustrate the relationship between validity and timescales of analysis.

  8. Green communication: The enabler to multiple business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindgren, Peter; Clemmensen, Suberia; Taran, Yariv

    2010-01-01

    Companies stand at the forefront of a new business model reality with new potentials - that will change their basic understanding and practice of running their business models radically. One of the drivers to this change is green communication, its strong relation to green business models and its...... possibility to enable lower energy consumption. This paper shows how green communication enables innovation of green business models and multiple business models running simultaneously in different markets to different customers.......Companies stand at the forefront of a new business model reality with new potentials - that will change their basic understanding and practice of running their business models radically. One of the drivers to this change is green communication, its strong relation to green business models and its...

  9. Global Asymptotic Stability for Discrete Single Species Population Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bilgin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We present some basic discrete models in populations dynamics of single species with several age classes. Starting with the basic Beverton-Holt model that describes the change of single species we discuss its basic properties such as a convergence of all solutions to the equilibrium, oscillation of solutions about the equilibrium solutions, Allee’s effect, and Jillson’s effect. We consider the effect of the constant and periodic immigration and emigration on the global properties of Beverton-Holt model. We also consider the effect of the periodic environment on the global properties of Beverton-Holt model.

  10. Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiplemembership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing...... multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposedmodel scales linearly in the number of links admittingmultiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show...

  11. Optimal Retail Price Model for Partial Consignment to Multiple Retailers

    OpenAIRE

    Po-Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the product pricing decision-making problem under a consignment stock policy in a two-level supply chain composed of one supplier and multiple retailers. The effects of the supplier’s wholesale prices and its partial inventory cost absorption of the retail prices of retailers with different market shares are investigated. In the partial product consignment model this paper proposes, the seller and the retailers each absorb part of the inventory costs. This model also p...

  12. A MULTIPLE EQUATION MODEL OF HOUSEHOLD LOCATIONAL AND TRIPMAKING BEHAVIOR,

    Science.gov (United States)

    This Memorandum describes a multiple equation model of household locational and tripmaking behavior , to be used in RAND’s study of urban...workers were aggregated to 254 spatially separate workplace zones. The model explains four types of locational and tripmaking behavior for the white...workers employed in these 254 zones: residential space consumption , automobile ownership, modal choice, and length of journey-to-work. In all, the final

  13. ESTAR model with multiple fixed points. Testing and Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    I A Venetis; I Paya; D Peel

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose a globally stationary augmentation of the Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR) model that allows for multiple fixed points in the transition function. An F-type test statistic for the null of nonstationarity against such globally stationary nonlinear alternative is developed. The test statistic is based on the standard approximation of the nonlinear function under the null hypothesis by a Taylor series expansion. The model is applied to the U.S real in...

  14. A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Robert P

    2013-09-01

    Predicting species geographic distributions in the future is an important yet exceptionally challenging endeavor. Overall, it requires a two-step process: (1) a niche model characterizing suitability, applied to projections of future conditions and linked to (2) a dispersal/demographic simulation estimating the species' future occupied distribution. Despite limitations, for the vast majority of species, correlative approaches are the most feasible avenue for building niche models. In addition to myriad technical issues regarding model building, researchers should follow critical principles for selecting predictor variables and occurrence data, demonstrating effective performance in prediction across space, and extrapolating into nonanalog conditions. Many of these principles relate directly to the niche space, dispersal/demographic noise, biotic noise, and human noise assumptions defined here. Issues requiring progress include modeling interactions between abiotic variables, integrating biotic variables, considering genetic heterogeneity, and quantifying uncertainty. Once built, the niche model identifying currently suitable conditions must be processed to approximate the areas that the species occupies. That estimate serves as a seed for the simulation of persistence, dispersal, and establishment in future suitable areas. The dispersal/demographic simulation also requires data regarding the species' dispersal ability and demography, scenarios for future land use, and the capability of considering multiple interacting species simultaneously. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  15. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate......Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions......, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current...

  16. An Additive-Multiplicative Restricted Mean Residual Life Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansourvar, Zahra; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    The mean residual life measures the expected remaining life of a subject who has survived up to a particular time. When survival time distribution is highly skewed or heavy tailed, the restricted mean residual life must be considered. In this paper, we propose an additive-multiplicative restricted...... mean residual life model to study the association between the restricted mean residual life function and potential regression covariates in the presence of right censoring. This model extends the proportional mean residual life model using an additive model as its covariate dependent baseline....... For the suggested model, some covariate effects are allowed to be time-varying. To estimate the model parameters, martingale estimating equations are developed, and the large sample properties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, to assess the adequacy of the model, we investigate a goodness...

  17. Improved intra-species collision models for PIC simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Lemons, D.S.; Winske, D.

    1998-01-01

    In recent years, the authors have investigated methods to improve the effectiveness of modeling collisional processes in particle-in-cell codes. Through the use of generalized collision models, plasma dynamics can be followed both in the regime of nearly collisionless plasmas as well as in the hydrodynamic limit of collisional plasmas. They have developed a collision-field method to treat both the case of collisions between unlike plasma species (inter-species collisions), through the use of a deterministic, grid-based force, and between particles of the same species (intra-species collisions), through the use of a Langevin equation. While the approach used for inter-species collisions is noise-free in that the collision experienced by a particle does not require any random numbers, such random numbers are used for intra-species collisions. This gives rise to a stochastic cooling effect inherent in the Langevin approach. In this paper, the authors concentrate on intra-species collisions and describe how the accuracy of the model can be improved by appropriate corrections to velocity and spatial moments

  18. MFAM: Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-Based Indoor Localization Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuta, Jure; Juric, Matjaz B

    2018-03-24

    This paper presents MFAM (Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-based localization method), a novel model-based indoor localization method that is capable of using multiple wireless signal frequencies simultaneously. It utilizes indoor architectural model and physical properties of wireless signal propagation through objects and space. The motivation for developing multiple frequency localization method lies in the future Wi-Fi standards (e.g., 802.11ah) and the growing number of various wireless signals present in the buildings (e.g., Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, ZigBee, etc.). Current indoor localization methods mostly rely on a single wireless signal type and often require many devices to achieve the necessary accuracy. MFAM utilizes multiple wireless signal types and improves the localization accuracy over the usage of a single frequency. It continuously monitors signal propagation through space and adapts the model according to the changes indoors. Using multiple signal sources lowers the required number of access points for a specific signal type while utilizing signals, already present in the indoors. Due to the unavailability of the 802.11ah hardware, we have evaluated proposed method with similar signals; we have used 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi and 868 MHz HomeMatic home automation signals. We have performed the evaluation in a modern two-bedroom apartment and measured mean localization error 2.0 to 2.3 m and median error of 2.0 to 2.2 m. Based on our evaluation results, using two different signals improves the localization accuracy by 18% in comparison to 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi-only approach. Additional signals would improve the accuracy even further. We have shown that MFAM provides better accuracy than competing methods, while having several advantages for real-world usage.

  19. Swimming with multiple propulsors: measurement and comparison of swimming gaits in three species of neotropical cichlids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feilich, Kara L

    2017-11-15

    Comparative studies of fish swimming have been limited by the lack of quantitative definitions of fish gaits. Traditionally, steady swimming gaits have been defined categorically by the fin or region of the body that is used as the main propulsor and named after major fish clades (e.g. carangiform, anguilliform, balistiform, labriform). This method of categorization is limited by the lack of explicit measurements, the inability to incorporate contributions of multiple propulsors and the inability to compare gaits across different categories. I propose an alternative framework for the definition and comparison of fish gaits based on the propulsive contribution of each structure (body and/or fin) being used as a propulsor relative to locomotor output, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework by comparing three species of neotropical cichlids with different body shapes. This approach is modular with respect to the number of propulsors considered, flexible with respect to the definition of the propulsive inputs and the locomotor output of interest, and designed explicitly to handle combinations of propulsors. Using this approach, gait can be defined as a trajectory through propulsive space, and gait transitions can be defined as discontinuities in the gait trajectory. By measuring and defining gait in this way, patterns of clustering corresponding to existing categorical definitions of gait may emerge, and gaits can be rigorously compared across categories. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  20. Infestation of wild-caught American bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana) by multiple species of metazoan parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemke, Laura B; Dronen, Norman; Fox, James G; Nambiar, Prashant R

    2008-05-01

    The American bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) is an aquatic, carnivorous member of the family Ranidae that is used extensively in physiology education programs and in various physiology, toxicology, sensorineural, and genetics research. Eleven bullfrogs purchased from a vendor distributing wild-caught frogs for use in a physiology research protocol were emaciated but otherwise showed no apparent clinical signs of illness. Necropsies performed on selected emaciated frogs indicated heavy infestation with multiple species of endoparasites. Identified helminths included Gorgodera amplicava, Haematolechus breviplexus, Clinostomum spp, Contracaecum spp, Cosmocercoides dukae, and Eustrongyloides spp. Grossly, parasitized bullfrogs showed encysted trematode larvae within skeletal muscle, nematode impaction of the intestinal tract, and lack of coelemic fat stores. Histopathologic lesions were restricted primarily to the gastrointestinal tract and consisted of parasitic granulomas associated with Contracaecum spp. The parasitic lesions may have been associated with the poor body condition of the bullfrogs. Food crickets maintained in-house were negative for parasite larvae or ova. Heavy parasitism of wild-caught bullfrogs may confound research protocols and markedly impair animal health. We encourage researchers to purchase laboratory-bred and -reared bullfrogs and to routinely monitor the parasite status of colony frogs.

  1. Small molecule CP-31398 induces reactive oxygen species-dependent apoptosis in human multiple myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arihara, Yohei; Takada, Kohichi; Kamihara, Yusuke; Hayasaka, Naotaka; Nakamura, Hajime; Murase, Kazuyuki; Ikeda, Hiroshi; Iyama, Satoshi; Sato, Tsutomu; Miyanishi, Koji; Kobune, Masayoshi; Kato, Junji

    2017-09-12

    Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are normal byproducts of a wide variety of cellular processes. ROS have dual functional roles in cancer cell pathophysiology. At low to moderate levels, ROS act as signaling transducers to activate cell proliferation, migration, invasion, and angiogenesis. In contrast, high levels of ROS induce cell death. In multiple myeloma (MM), ROS overproduction is the trigger for apoptosis induced by several anticancer compounds, including proteasome inhibitors. However, no drugs for which oxidative stress is the main mechanism of action are currently used for treatment of MM in clinical situations. In this study, we demonstrate that the p53-activating small molecule CP-31398 (CP) effectively inhibits the growth of MM cell lines and primary MM isolates from patients. CP also suppresses the growth of MM xenografts in mice. Mechanistically, CP was found to induce intrinsic apoptosis in MM cells via increasing ROS production. Interestingly, CP-induced apoptosis occurs regardless of the p53 status, suggesting that CP has additional mechanisms of action. Our findings thus indicate that CP could be an attractive candidate for treatment of MM patients harboring p53 abnormalities; this satisfies an unmet clinical need, as such individuals currently have a poor prognosis.

  2. Membrane-based oligonucleotide array developed from multiple markers for the detection of many Phytophthora species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wen; Djama, Zeinab Robleh; Coffey, Michael D; Martin, Frank N; Bilodeau, Guillaume J; Radmer, Lorien; Denton, Geoff; Lévesque, C André

    2013-01-01

    Most Phytophthora spp. are destructive plant pathogens; therefore, effective monitoring and accurate early detection are important means of preventing potential epidemics and outbreaks of diseases. In the current study, a membrane-based oligonucleotide array was developed that can detect Phytophthora spp. reliably using three DNA regions; namely, the internal transcribed spacer (ITS), the 5' end of cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene (cox1), and the intergenic region between cytochrome c oxidase 2 gene (cox2) and cox1 (cox2-1 spacer). Each sequence data set contained ≈250 sequences representing 98 described and 15 undescribed species of Phytophthora. The array was validated with 143 pure cultures and 35 field samples. Together, nonrejected oligonucleotides from all three markers have the ability to reliably detect 82 described and 8 undescribed Phytophthora spp., including several quarantine or regulated pathogens such as Phytophthora ramorum. Our results showed that a DNA array containing signature oligonucleotides designed from multiple genomic regions provided robustness and redundancy for the detection and differentiation of closely related taxon groups. This array has the potential to be used as a routine diagnostic tool for Phytophthora spp. from complex environmental samples without the need for extensive growth of cultures.

  3. Improving discrimination of savanna tree species through a multiple endmember spectral-angle-mapper (SAM) approach: canopy level analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cho, Moses A

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available that the lowest performance for discriminating rainforest species compared to linear discriminant analysis and maximum likelihood classifiers [10]. Our research hypothesis therefore centres on the fact that a multiple-endmember approach, involving many..., and R. F. Hughes, "Invasive species detection in Hawaiian rainforests using airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR," Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 112, pp. 1942-1955, 2008. [21] P. J. Curran, "Remote sensing of foliar chemistry," Remote Sensing...

  4. An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suweis, Samir; Maritan, Amos; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    We present novel analytical results concerning ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse-grained neutral model based on birth–death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results from ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. The neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems at the same trophic level, where per capita vital rates are assumed to be species independent. Closed-form analytical solutions for the neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain to: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem, both in transient and in stationary states; the n-point connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, defined as the distribution of time spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from an estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications for biodiversity and conservation biology. (paper)

  5. Likelihood analysis of species occurrence probability from presence-only data for modelling species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Yackulic, Charles; Nichols, James D.

    2012-01-01

    1. Understanding the factors affecting species occurrence is a pre-eminent focus of applied ecological research. However, direct information about species occurrence is lacking for many species. Instead, researchers sometimes have to rely on so-called presence-only data (i.e. when no direct information about absences is available), which often results from opportunistic, unstructured sampling. MAXENT is a widely used software program designed to model and map species distribution using presence-only data. 2. We provide a critical review of MAXENT as applied to species distribution modelling and discuss how it can lead to inferential errors. A chief concern is that MAXENT produces a number of poorly defined indices that are not directly related to the actual parameter of interest – the probability of occurrence (ψ). This focus on an index was motivated by the belief that it is not possible to estimate ψ from presence-only data; however, we demonstrate that ψ is identifiable using conventional likelihood methods under the assumptions of random sampling and constant probability of species detection. 3. The model is implemented in a convenient r package which we use to apply the model to simulated data and data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We demonstrate that MAXENT produces extreme under-predictions when compared to estimates produced by logistic regression which uses the full (presence/absence) data set. We note that MAXENT predictions are extremely sensitive to specification of the background prevalence, which is not objectively estimated using the MAXENT method. 4. As with MAXENT, formal model-based inference requires a random sample of presence locations. Many presence-only data sets, such as those based on museum records and herbarium collections, may not satisfy this assumption. However, when sampling is random, we believe that inference should be based on formal methods that facilitate inference about interpretable ecological quantities

  6. Calculation of site specific characterisation factors for metal ecotoxicity using decoupled multi species fate and exposure modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birkved, Morten; Strandesen, Maria; Larsen, HF

    2004-01-01

    Calculation of characterisation factors (CF’s) for metal ecotoxicity typically involves fate and exposure modelling of metals in multi-media models developed for assessment of organic compounds. Metals do not follow the fate patterns of organic chemicals, and the results will therefore most likely...... misrepresent the exposure concentration of metals. However, using multiple versions of such models for individual metal species within each model region and linking these to databases containing information on speciation pattern and fate properties of the individual metal species enables the assessment...... to the part of the metal species present as complexes which is very hard to account for in single species assessment. Preliminary results on the CF’s based on single species assessment and decoupled multi species assessment will be presented for 4 common metals....

  7. Tools and Models for Integrating Multiple Cellular Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstein, Mark [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). Gerstein Lab.

    2015-11-06

    In this grant, we have systematically investigated the integrated networks, which are responsible for the coordination of activity between metabolic pathways in prokaryotes. We have developed several computational tools to analyze the topology of the integrated networks consisting of metabolic, regulatory, and physical interaction networks. The tools are all open-source, and they are available to download from Github, and can be incorporated in the Knowledgebase. Here, we summarize our work as follow. Understanding the topology of the integrated networks is the first step toward understanding its dynamics and evolution. For Aim 1 of this grant, we have developed a novel algorithm to determine and measure the hierarchical structure of transcriptional regulatory networks [1]. The hierarchy captures the direction of information flow in the network. The algorithm is generally applicable to regulatory networks in prokaryotes, yeast and higher organisms. Integrated datasets are extremely beneficial in understanding the biology of a system in a compact manner due to the conflation of multiple layers of information. Therefore for Aim 2 of this grant, we have developed several tools and carried out analysis for integrating system-wide genomic information. To make use of the structural data, we have developed DynaSIN for protein-protein interactions networks with various dynamical interfaces [2]. We then examined the association between network topology with phenotypic effects such as gene essentiality. In particular, we have organized E. coli and S. cerevisiae transcriptional regulatory networks into hierarchies. We then correlated gene phenotypic effects by tinkering with different layers to elucidate which layers were more tolerant to perturbations [3]. In the context of evolution, we also developed a workflow to guide the comparison between different types of biological networks across various species using the concept of rewiring [4], and Furthermore, we have developed

  8. Modelling the effect of climate change on species ranges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nagelkerke, C.J.; Alkemade, J.R.M.

    2003-01-01

    Three main types of models can be used to understand and predict climate-related range shifts. Equilibrium models predict potential future distributions from the current climate envelope of a species, but do not take migration constraints into account. They show that future range changes can be

  9. Modeling shell morphology of an epitoniid species with parametric equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernido, Christopher C.; Carpio-Bernido, M. Victoria; Sadudaquil, Jerome A.; Salas, Rochelle I.; Mangyao, Justin Ericson A.; Halasan, Lorenzo C.; Baja, Paz Kenneth S.; Jumawan, Ethel Jade V.

    2017-08-01

    An epitoniid specimen under the genus Cycloscala is mathematically modeled using parametric equations which allow comparison of growth functions and parameter values with other specimens of the same genus. This mathematical modeling approach may supplement the currently used genetic and microscopy methods in the taxonomic classification of species.

  10. An applied model for the evaluation of multiple physiological stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, S H; Sherry, C J; Walters, T J

    1991-01-01

    In everyday life, a human is likely to be exposed to the combined effects of a number of different stressors simultaneously. Consequently, if an applied model is to ultimately provide the best 'fit' between the modeling and modeled phenomena, it must be able to accommodate the evaluation of multiple stressors. Therefore, a multidimensional, primate model is described that can fully accommodate a large number of conceivably stressful, real life scenarios that may be encountered by civilian or military workers. A number of physiological measurements were made in female rhesus monkeys in order to validate the model against previous reports. These evaluations were further expanded to include the experimental perturbation of physical work (exercise). Physiological profiles during activity were extended with the incorporation of radio telemetry. In conclusion, this model allows maximal extrapolation of the potential deleterious or ergogenic effects on systemic physiological function under conditions of realistic operational demands and environments.

  11. Niche variability and its consequences for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Matt J; Knouft, Jason H

    2012-01-01

    When species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how a species will respond to environmental change, an important assumption is that the environmental niche of the species is conserved over evolutionary time-scales. Empirical studies conducted at ecological time-scales, however, demonstrate that the niche of some species can vary in response to environmental change. We use habitat and locality data of five species of stream fishes collected across seasons to examine the effects of niche variability on the accuracy of projections from Maxent, a popular SDM. We then compare these predictions to those from an alternate method of creating SDM projections in which a transformation of the environmental data to similar scales is applied. The niche of each species varied to some degree in response to seasonal variation in environmental variables, with most species shifting habitat use in response to changes in canopy cover or flow rate. SDMs constructed from the original environmental data accurately predicted the occurrences of one species across all seasons and a subset of seasons for two other species. A similar result was found for SDMs constructed from the transformed environmental data. However, the transformed SDMs produced better models in ten of the 14 total SDMs, as judged by ratios of mean probability values at known presences to mean probability values at all other locations. Niche variability should be an important consideration when using SDMs to predict future distributions of species because of its prevalence among natural populations. The framework we present here may potentially improve these predictions by accounting for such variability.

  12. Niche variability and its consequences for species distribution modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt J Michel

    Full Text Available When species distribution models (SDMs are used to predict how a species will respond to environmental change, an important assumption is that the environmental niche of the species is conserved over evolutionary time-scales. Empirical studies conducted at ecological time-scales, however, demonstrate that the niche of some species can vary in response to environmental change. We use habitat and locality data of five species of stream fishes collected across seasons to examine the effects of niche variability on the accuracy of projections from Maxent, a popular SDM. We then compare these predictions to those from an alternate method of creating SDM projections in which a transformation of the environmental data to similar scales is applied. The niche of each species varied to some degree in response to seasonal variation in environmental variables, with most species shifting habitat use in response to changes in canopy cover or flow rate. SDMs constructed from the original environmental data accurately predicted the occurrences of one species across all seasons and a subset of seasons for two other species. A similar result was found for SDMs constructed from the transformed environmental data. However, the transformed SDMs produced better models in ten of the 14 total SDMs, as judged by ratios of mean probability values at known presences to mean probability values at all other locations. Niche variability should be an important consideration when using SDMs to predict future distributions of species because of its prevalence among natural populations. The framework we present here may potentially improve these predictions by accounting for such variability.

  13. Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

    2017-01-01

    Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have

  14. A Multiple Reaction Modelling Framework for Microbial Electrochemical Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolutola Oyetunde

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model for the theoretical evaluation of microbial electrochemical technologies (METs is presented that incorporates a detailed physico-chemical framework, includes multiple reactions (both at the electrodes and in the bulk phase and involves a variety of microbial functional groups. The model is applied to two theoretical case studies: (i A microbial electrolysis cell (MEC for continuous anodic volatile fatty acids (VFA oxidation and cathodic VFA reduction to alcohols, for which the theoretical system response to changes in applied voltage and VFA feed ratio (anode-to-cathode as well as membrane type are investigated. This case involves multiple parallel electrode reactions in both anode and cathode compartments; (ii A microbial fuel cell (MFC for cathodic perchlorate reduction, in which the theoretical impact of feed flow rates and concentrations on the overall system performance are investigated. This case involves multiple electrode reactions in series in the cathode compartment. The model structure captures interactions between important system variables based on first principles and provides a platform for the dynamic description of METs involving electrode reactions both in parallel and in series and in both MFC and MEC configurations. Such a theoretical modelling approach, largely based on first principles, appears promising in the development and testing of MET control and optimization strategies.

  15. A PDP model of the simultaneous perception of multiple objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Cynthia M.; McClelland, James L.

    2011-06-01

    Illusory conjunctions in normal and simultanagnosic subjects are two instances where the visual features of multiple objects are incorrectly 'bound' together. A connectionist model explores how multiple objects could be perceived correctly in normal subjects given sufficient time, but could give rise to illusory conjunctions with damage or time pressure. In this model, perception of two objects benefits from lateral connections between hidden layers modelling aspects of the ventral and dorsal visual pathways. As with simultanagnosia, simulations of dorsal lesions impair multi-object recognition. In contrast, a large ventral lesion has minimal effect on dorsal functioning, akin to dissociations between simple object manipulation (retained in visual form agnosia and semantic dementia) and object discrimination (impaired in these disorders) [Hodges, J.R., Bozeat, S., Lambon Ralph, M.A., Patterson, K., and Spatt, J. (2000), 'The Role of Conceptual Knowledge: Evidence from Semantic Dementia', Brain, 123, 1913-1925; Milner, A.D., and Goodale, M.A. (2006), The Visual Brain in Action (2nd ed.), New York: Oxford]. It is hoped that the functioning of this model might suggest potential processes underlying dorsal and ventral contributions to the correct perception of multiple objects.

  16. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  17. Cross-species extrapolation of prediction models for cadmium transfer from soil to corn grain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Yang

    Full Text Available Cadmium (Cd is a highly toxic heavy metal for both plants and animals. The presence of Cd in agricultural soils is of great concern regarding its transfer in the soil-plant system. This study investigated the transfer of Cd (exogenous salts from a wide range of Chinese soils to corn grain (Zhengdan 958. Through multiple stepwise regressions, prediction models were developed, with the combination of Cd bioconcentration factor (BCF of Zhengdan 958 and soil pH, organic matter (OM content, and cation exchange capacity (CEC. Moreover, these prediction models from Zhengdan 958 were applied to other non-model corn species through cross-species extrapolation approach. The results showed that the pH of the soil was the most important factor that controlled Cd uptake and lower pH was more favorable for Cd bioaccumulation in corn grain. There was no significant difference among three prediction models in the different Cd levels. When the prediction models were applied to other non-model corn species, the ratio ranges between the predicted BCF values and the measured BCF values were within an interval of 2 folds and close to the solid line of 1∶1 relationship. Furthermore, these prediction models also reduced the measured BCF intra-species variability for all non-model corn species. Therefore, the prediction models established in this study can be applied to other non-model corn species and be useful for predicting the Cd bioconcentration in corn grain and assessing the ecological risk of Cd in different soils.

  18. Considerations for building climate-based species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucklin, David N.; Basille, Mathieu; Romañach, Stephanie; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Watling, James I.

    2016-01-01

    Climate plays an important role in the distribution of species. A given species may adjust to new conditions in-place, move to new areas with suitable climates, or go extinct. Scientists and conservation practitioners use mathematical models to predict the effects of future climate change on wildlife and plan for a biodiverse future. This 8-page fact sheet written by David N. Bucklin, Mathieu Basille, Stephanie S. Romañach, Laura A. Brandt, Frank J. Mazzotti, and James I. Watling and published by the Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation explains how, with a better understanding of species distribution models, we can predict how species may respond to climate change. The models alone cannot tell us how a certain species will actually respond to changes in climate, but they can inform conservation planning that aims to allow species to both adapt in place and (for those that are able to) move to newly suitable areas. Such planning will likely minimize loss of biodiversity due to climate change.

  19. Integration of genomic, transcriptomic and functional profiles of aggressive osteosarcomas across multiple species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lara E; Jeng, Sophia; Svalina, Matthew N; Huang, Elaine; Pittsenbarger, Janét; Cantor, Emma L; Berlow, Noah; Seguin, Bernard; Mansoor, Atiya; McWeeney, Shannon K; Keller, Charles

    2017-09-29

    In complex, highly unstable genomes such as in osteosarcoma, targeting aberrant checkpoint processes (metabolic, cell cycle or immune) may prove more successful than targeting specific kinase or growth factor signaling pathways. Here, we establish a comparative oncology approach characterizing the most lethal osteosarcomas identified in a biorepository of tumors from three different species: human, mouse and canine. We describe the development of a genetically-engineered mouse model of osteosarcoma, establishment of primary cell cultures from fatal human tumors, and a biorepository of osteosarcoma surgical specimens from pet dogs. We analyzed the DNA mutations, differential RNA expression and in vitro drug sensitivity from two phenotypically-distinct cohorts: tumors with a highly aggressive biology resulting in death from rapidly progressive, refractory metastatic disease, and tumors with a non-aggressive, curable phenotype. We identified ARK5 (AMPK-Related Protein Kinase 5, also referred to as NUAK Family Kinase 1) as a novel metabolic target present in all species, and independent analyses confirmed glucose metabolism as the most significantly aberrant cellular signaling pathway in a model system for highly metastatic tumors. Pathway integration analysis identified Polo Like Kinase 1 (PLK1)-mediated checkpoint adaptation as critical to the survival of a distinctly aggressive osteosarcoma. The tumor-associated macrophage cytokine CCL18 (C-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 18) was significantly over-expressed in aggressive human osteosarcomas, and a clustering of mutations in the BAGE (B Melanoma Antigen) tumor antigen gene family was found. The theme of these features of high risk osteosarcoma is checkpoint adaptations, which may prove both prognostic and targetable.

  20. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Chung-Min; Hsieh, Ching-Lin; Chang, Kuei-Lun

    2013-01-01

    The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP) is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise compa...

  1. Engineering Large Animal Species to Model Human Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Christopher S

    2016-07-01

    Animal models are an important resource for studying human diseases. Genetically engineered mice are the most commonly used species and have made significant contributions to our understanding of basic biology, disease mechanisms, and drug development. However, they often fail to recreate important aspects of human diseases and thus can have limited utility as translational research tools. Developing disease models in species more similar to humans may provide a better setting in which to study disease pathogenesis and test new treatments. This unit provides an overview of the history of genetically engineered large animals and the techniques that have made their development possible. Factors to consider when planning a large animal model, including choice of species, type of modification and methodology, characterization, production methods, and regulatory compliance, are also covered. © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  2. Development of a Watershed Management Model for the Chesapeake Using Multiple Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, G.; Shenk, G.

    2014-12-01

    Calibrated watershed models are widely used as tools for estimating the outcomes of management scenarios. Multiple models are often recommended for well-informed decision making to gain an estimate of uncertainty, to allow for multiple representations of the physical-chemical-biological system, and to provide confidence in the model predictions. Implementing and maintaining multiple watershed models, particularly of a large-scale watershed, poses significant financial and logistical challenges associated with model calibrations, computation requirements, and differences in data formats. Moreover, analysis of results from multiple models adds additional complexity in decision-making. We propose and demonstrate a framework to simulate management scenarios using a 'sensitivity' approach that incorporates the findings of multiple models into a single simulation framework. This simple and easily-understood modeling framework provides the ability to explicitly incorporate the best available science-based understanding of watershed responses to changes in nutrient balances. Generalized watershed nutrient response are derived from the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence, which include studies involving multiple physically-based models of watersheds at catchment to regional scales, along with experimental studies and watershed observatories. The framework provides simplified accounting for planning, implementation, and tracking of management scenarios while providing capabilities to incorporate complex watershed phenomenon such as lag-times in nutrient response. The framework is being developed by the Chesapeake Bay Partnership for an assessment of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) in 2017 and to develop management plans to meet water quality standards in the Bay waters.

  3. Multiple-membership multiple-classification models for social network and group dependences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tranmer, Mark; Steel, David; Browne, William J

    2014-02-01

    The social network literature on network dependences has largely ignored other sources of dependence, such as the school that a student attends, or the area in which an individual lives. The multilevel modelling literature on school and area dependences has, in turn, largely ignored social networks. To bridge this divide, a multiple-membership multiple-classification modelling approach for jointly investigating social network and group dependences is presented. This allows social network and group dependences on individual responses to be investigated and compared. The approach is used to analyse a subsample of the Adolescent Health Study data set from the USA, where the response variable of interest is individual level educational attainment, and the three individual level covariates are sex, ethnic group and age. Individual, network, school and area dependences are accounted for in the analysis. The network dependences can be accounted for by including the network as a classification in the model, using various network configurations, such as ego-nets and cliques. The results suggest that ignoring the network affects the estimates of variation for the classifications that are included in the random part of the model (school, area and individual), as well as having some influence on the point estimates and standard errors of the estimates of regression coefficients for covariates in the fixed part of the model. From a substantive perspective, this approach provides a flexible and practical way of investigating variation in an individual level response due to social network dependences, and estimating the share of variation of an individual response for network, school and area classifications.

  4. Analysis of multiple tsetse fly populations in Uganda reveals limited diversity and species-specific gut microbiota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, Emre; Telleria, Erich L; Echodu, Richard; Wu, Yineng; Okedi, Loyce M; Weiss, Brian L; Aksoy, Serap; Caccone, Adalgisa

    2014-07-01

    The invertebrate microbiome contributes to multiple aspects of host physiology, including nutrient supplementation and immune maturation processes. We identified and compared gut microbial abundance and diversity in natural tsetse flies from Uganda using five genetically distinct populations of Glossina fuscipes fuscipes and multiple tsetse species (Glossina morsitans morsitans, G. f. fuscipes, and Glossina pallidipes) that occur in sympatry in one location. We used multiple approaches, including deep sequencing of the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene, 16S rRNA gene clone libraries, and bacterium-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR), to investigate the levels and patterns of gut microbial diversity from a total of 151 individuals. Our results show extremely limited diversity in field flies of different tsetse species. The obligate endosymbiont Wigglesworthia dominated all samples (>99%), but we also observed wide prevalence of low-density Sodalis (tsetse's commensal endosymbiont) infections (microbiota composition among the genetically distinct G. f. fuscipes flies and between different sympatric species. Interestingly, Wigglesworthia density varied in different species (10(4) to 10(6) normalized genomes), with G. f. fuscipes having the highest levels. We describe the factors that may be responsible for the reduced diversity of tsetse's gut microbiota compared to those of other insects. Additionally, we discuss the implications of Wigglesworthia and Sodalis density variations as they relate to trypanosome transmission dynamics and vector competence variations associated with different tsetse species. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  5. The role of advection in a two-species competition model

    CERN Document Server

    Averill, Isabel; Lou, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    The effects of weak and strong advection on the dynamics of reaction-diffusion models have long been studied. In contrast, the role of intermediate advection remains poorly understood. For example, concentration phenomena can occur when advection is strong, providing a mechanism for the coexistence of multiple populations, in contrast with the situation of weak advection where coexistence may not be possible. The transition of the dynamics from weak to strong advection is generally difficult to determine. In this work the authors consider a mathematical model of two competing populations in a spatially varying but temporally constant environment, where both species have the same population dynamics but different dispersal strategies: one species adopts random dispersal, while the dispersal strategy for the other species is a combination of random dispersal and advection upward along the resource gradient. For any given diffusion rates the authors consider the bifurcation diagram of positive steady states by u...

  6. Multiple endmember spectral-angle-mapper (SAM) analysis improves discrimination of Savanna tree species

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cho, Moses A

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Differences in within-species phenology and structure driven by factors including topography, edaphic properties, and climatic variables across the landscape present important challenges to species differentiation with remote sensing. The objective...

  7. Multiple-scattering clusta model of covalent semiconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leite, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    A review is presented of the multiple-scattering-cluster model proposed to study the electronic structure of defects and impurities in semiconductors. Applications of this method are discussed and results for the A center in silicon are shown. Recent results obtained for complex defects in silicon are also presented. The advantage of using a localized description of the electronic structure of solids instead of the conventional band structure description is emphasized. The promising agreement with experimental results leads to the conclusion that the cluster model discussed in this paper is a suitable technique for studying the electronic structure of locally perturbed semiconductors. Perspectives for future work are also analysed. (author) [pt

  8. Multiple-scattering-cluster model of covalent semiconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leite, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    A review is presented of the multiple-scattering-cluster model proposed to study the electronic structure of defects and impurities in semiconductors. Applications of this method are discussed and results for the A center in silicon are shown. Recent results obtained for complex defects in silicon are also presented. The advantage of using a localized description of the electronic structure of solids instead of the conventional band structure description is emphasized. The promising agreement with experimental results leads to the conclusion that the cluster model discussed in this paper is a suitable technique for studying the electronic structure of locally perturbed semiconductors. Perspectives for future work are also analysed. (Author) [pt

  9. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esmaeilikia, Masoud; Fahimnia, Behnam; Sarkis, Joeseph

    2016-01-01

    Supply chain flexibility is widely recognized as an approach to manage uncertainty. Uncertainty in the supply chain may arise from a number of sources such as demand and supply interruptions and lead time variability. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options...... incorporated in sourcing, manufacturing and logistics functions can be used for the analysis of flexibility adjustment in an existing supply chain. This paper develops such a tactical supply chain planning model incorporating a realistic range of flexibility options. A novel solution method is designed...

  10. Hierarchical Multiple Markov Chain Model for Unsupervised Texture Segmentation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Scarpa, G.; Gaetano, R.; Haindl, Michal; Zerubia, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 8 (2009), s. 1830-1843 ISSN 1057-7149 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0593 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 507752 - MUSCLE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Classification * texture analysis * segmentation * hierarchical image models * Markov process Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 2.848, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/RO/haindl-hierarchical multiple markov chain model for unsupervised texture segmentation.pdf

  11. Complementary models of tree species-soil relationships in old-growth temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Alison; Perakis, Steven S.

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem level studies identify plant soil feed backs as important controls on soil nutrient availability,particularly for nitrogen and phosphorus. Although site and species specific studies of tree species soil relationships are relatively common,comparatively fewer studies consider multiple coexisting speciesin old-growth forests across a range of sites that vary underlying soil fertility. We characterized patterns in forest floor and mineral soil nutrients associated with four common tree species across eight undisturbed old-growth forests in Oregon, USA, and used two complementary conceptual models to assess tree species soil relationships. Plant soil feedbacks that could reinforce sitelevel differences in nutrient availability were assessed using the context dependent relationships model, where by relative species based differences in each soil nutrient divergedorconvergedas nutrient status changed across sites. Tree species soil relationships that did not reflect strong feedbacks were evaluated using a site independent relationships model, where by forest floor and surface mineral soil nutrient tools differed consistently by tree species across sites,without variation in deeper mineral soils. We found that theorganically cycled elements carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus exhibited context-dependent differences among species in both forest floor and mineral soil, and most of ten followed adivergence model,where by species differences were greatest at high-nutrient sites. These patterns are consistent with the oryemphasizing biotic control of these elements through plant soil feedback mechanisms. Site independent species differences were strongest for pool so if the weather able cations calcium, magnesium, potassium,as well as phosphorus, in mineral soils. Site independent species differences in forest floor nutrients we reattributable too nespecies that displayed significant greater forest floor mass accumulation. Our finding confirmed that site-independent and

  12. Determinants of species richness patterns in the Netherlands across multiple taxonomic groups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schouten, M.A.; Verweij, P.A.; Barendrecht, A.; Kleukers, R.

    2009-01-01

    We examined the species richness patterns of five different species groups (mosses, reptiles and amphibians, grasshoppers and crickets, dragonflies, and hoverflies) in the Netherlands (41,500 km2) using sampling units of 5 × 5 km. We compared the spatial patterns of species richness of the five

  13. Modeling the spread of multiple concurrent contagions on networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel Stanoev

    Full Text Available Many contagions spread over various types of communication networks and their spreading dynamics have been extensively studied in the literature. Here we propose a general model for the concurrent spread of an arbitrary number of contagions in complex networks. The model is stochastic and runs in discrete time, and includes two widely used mechanisms by which a node can change its state. The first, termed the spontaneous state change mechanism, describes spontaneous transition to another state, while the second, termed the contact-induced state change mechanism, describes acquiring other contagions due to contact with the neighbors. We consider reactive discrete-time spreading processes of multiple concurrent contagions where time steps are of finite size without neglecting the possibility of multiple infecting events in a single time step. An essential element for making the model numerically tractable is the use of an approximation for the probability that a node transits to a specific state given any set of neighboring states. Different transmission probabilities may be present between each pair of states. We also derive corresponding continuous-time equations that are simple and intuitive. The model includes many well-known epidemic and rumor spreading models as a special case and it naturally captures spreading processes in multiplex networks.

  14. A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

    2016-05-01

    Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  15. The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    by their geometrical properties. Tests involved analysis of models' ability to predict virtual species distributions in the same region and the same time as used for training the models, and to project distributions in different times under climate change. Of the eight species distribution models analyzed five (Random...

  16. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  17. On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M. Bell; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

    2016-01-01

    Although biogeographic patterns are the product of complex ecological processes, the increasing com-plexity of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) is not always motivated by ecological theory,but by model fit. The validity of model projections, such as shifts in a species’ climatic niche, becomesquestionable particularly during extrapolations, such as for...

  18. Challenges and perspectives for species distribution modelling in the neotropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamino, Luciana H. Y.; Stehmann, João Renato; Amaral, Silvana; De Marco, Paulo; Rangel, Thiago F.; de Siqueira, Marinez F.; De Giovanni, Renato; Hortal, Joaquín

    2012-01-01

    The workshop ‘Species distribution models: applications, challenges and perspectives’ held at Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 29–30 August 2011, aimed to review the state-of-the-art in species distribution modelling (SDM) in the neotropical realm. It brought together researchers in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation, with different backgrounds and research interests. The application of SDM in the megadiverse neotropics—where data on species occurrences are scarce—presents several challenges, involving acknowledging the limitations imposed by data quality, including surveys as an integral part of SDM studies, and designing the analyses in accordance with the question investigated. Specific solutions were discussed, and a code of good practice in SDM studies and related field surveys was drafted. PMID:22031720

  19. Can species distribution models really predict the expansion of invasive species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Rome, Quentin; Villemant, Claire; Courchamp, Franck

    2018-01-01

    Predictive studies are of paramount importance for biological invasions, one of the biggest threats for biodiversity. To help and better prioritize management strategies, species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the potential invasive range of introduced species. Yet, SDMs have been regularly criticized, due to several strong limitations, such as violating the equilibrium assumption during the invasion process. Unfortunately, validation studies-with independent data-are too scarce to assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in invasion biology. Yet, biological invasions allow to test SDMs usefulness, by retrospectively assessing whether they would have accurately predicted the latest ranges of invasion. Here, we assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in predicting the expansion of invasive species. We used temporal occurrence data for the Asian hornet Vespa velutina nigrithorax, a species native to China that is invading Europe with a very fast rate. Specifically, we compared occurrence data from the last stage of invasion (independent validation points) to the climate suitability distribution predicted from models calibrated with data from the early stage of invasion. Despite the invasive species not being at equilibrium yet, the predicted climate suitability of validation points was high. SDMs can thus adequately predict the spread of V. v. nigrithorax, which appears to be-at least partially-climatically driven. In the case of V. v. nigrithorax, SDMs predictive accuracy was slightly but significantly better when models were calibrated with invasive data only, excluding native data. Although more validation studies for other invasion cases are needed to generalize our results, our findings are an important step towards validating the use of SDMs in invasion biology.

  20. Distribution models and species discovery: the story of a new Solanum species from the Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Särkinen, Tiina; Gonzáles, Paúl; Knapp, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    Abstract A new species of Solanum sect. Solanum from Peru is described here. Solanum pseudoamericanum Särkinen, Gonzáles & S.Knapp sp. nov. is a member of the Morelloid clade of Solanum, and is characterized by the combination of mostly forked inflorescences, flowers with small stamens 2.5 mm long including the filament, and strongly exerted styles with capitate stigmas. The species was first thought to be restricted to the seasonally dry tropical forests of southern Peru along the dry valleys of Río Pampas and Río Apurímac. Results from species distribution modelling (SDM) analysis with climatic predictors identified further potential suitable habitat areas in northern and central Peru. These areas were visited during field work in 2013. A total of 17 new populations across the predicted distribution were discovered using the model-based sampling method, and five further collections were identified amongst herbarium loans. Although still endemic to Peru, Solanum pseudoamericanum is now known from across northern, central and southern Peru. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of SDM for predicting new occurrences of rare plants, especially in the Andes where collection densities are still low in many areas and where many new species remain to be discovered. PMID:24399901

  1. Distribution models and species discovery: the story of a new Solanum species from the Peruvian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiina Sarkinen

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A new species of Solanum sect. Solanum from Peru is described here. Solanum pseudoamericanum Särkinen, Gonzáles & S.Knapp sp. nov. is a member of the Morelloid clade of Solanum, and is characterized by the combination of mostly forked inflorescences, flowers with small stamens 2.5 mm long including the filament, and strongly exerted styles with capitate stigmas. The species was first thought to be restricted to the seasonally dry tropical forests of southern Peru along the dry valleys of Río Pampas and Río Apurímac. Results from species distribution modelling (SDM analysis with climatic predictors identified further potential suitable habitat areas in northern and central Peru. These areas were visited during field work in 2013. A total of 17 new populations across the predicted distribution were discovered using the model-based sampling method, and five further collections were identified amongst herbarium loans. Although still endemic to Peru, S. pseudoamericanum is now known from across northern, central and southern Peru. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of SDM for predicting new occurrences of rare plants, especially in the Andes where collection densities are still low in many areas and where many new species remain to be discovered.

  2. Multiplicative Attribute Graph Model of Real-World Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myunghwan [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Leskovec, Jure [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2010-10-20

    Large scale real-world network data, such as social networks, Internet andWeb graphs, is ubiquitous in a variety of scientific domains. The study of such social and information networks commonly finds patterns and explain their emergence through tractable models. In most networks, especially in social networks, nodes also have a rich set of attributes (e.g., age, gender) associatedwith them. However, most of the existing network models focus only on modeling the network structure while ignoring the features of nodes in the network. Here we present a class of network models that we refer to as the Multiplicative Attribute Graphs (MAG), which naturally captures the interactions between the network structure and node attributes. We consider a model where each node has a vector of categorical features associated with it. The probability of an edge between a pair of nodes then depends on the product of individual attributeattribute similarities. The model yields itself to mathematical analysis as well as fit to real data. We derive thresholds for the connectivity, the emergence of the giant connected component, and show that the model gives rise to graphs with a constant diameter. Moreover, we analyze the degree distribution to show that the model can produce networks with either lognormal or power-law degree distribution depending on certain conditions.

  3. Phylogenetic reconstruction and DNA barcoding for closely related pine moth species (Dendrolimus) in China with multiple gene markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Qing-Yan; Gao, Qiang; Wu, Chun-Sheng; Chesters, Douglas; Zhu, Chao-Dong; Zhang, Ai-Bing

    2012-01-01

    Unlike distinct species, closely related species offer a great challenge for phylogeny reconstruction and species identification with DNA barcoding due to their often overlapping genetic variation. We tested a sibling species group of pine moth pests in China with a standard cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene and two alternative internal transcribed spacer (ITS) genes (ITS1 and ITS2). Five different phylogenetic/DNA barcoding analysis methods (Maximum likelihood (ML)/Neighbor-joining (NJ), "best close match" (BCM), Minimum distance (MD), and BP-based method (BP)), representing commonly used methodology (tree-based and non-tree based) in the field, were applied to both single-gene and multiple-gene analyses. Our results demonstrated clear reciprocal species monophyly for three relatively distant related species, Dendrolimus superans, D. houi, D. kikuchii, as recovered by both single and multiple genes while the phylogenetic relationship of three closely related species, D. punctatus, D. tabulaeformis, D. spectabilis, could not be resolved with the traditional tree-building methods. Additionally, we find the standard COI barcode outperforms two nuclear ITS genes, whatever the methods used. On average, the COI barcode achieved a success rate of 94.10-97.40%, while ITS1 and ITS2 obtained a success rate of 64.70-81.60%, indicating ITS genes are less suitable for species identification in this case. We propose the use of an overall success rate of species identification that takes both sequencing success and assignation success into account, since species identification success rates with multiple-gene barcoding system were generally overestimated, especially by tree-based methods, where only successfully sequenced DNA sequences were used to construct a phylogenetic tree. Non-tree based methods, such as MD, BCM, and BP approaches, presented advantages over tree-based methods by reporting the overall success rates with statistical significance. In addition, our

  4. Modelling of the Blood Plasma Species of Biguanide Derivatives ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NJD

    Modelling of the Blood Plasma Species of. Biguanide Derivatives Exhibiting Potential as. Diagnostic Radiopharmaceuticals. Judith M. Wagenera*, Midred K. Dithebea, Daniel Moganob, Ignacy Cukrowskib and Jan Rijn Zeevaartc. aRadiochemistry, NECSA, P.O. Box 582, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. bDepartment of ...

  5. A Species Distribution Modeling Informed Conservation Assessment of Bog Spicebush

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-14

    ERDC develops innovative solutions in civil and military engineering, geospatial sciences, water resources, and environmental sciences for the Army...Natural Resources Program. This work was conducted by the Ecological Processes Branch (CNN), In- stallations Division (CN), Construction Engineering...declining number of Bog Spicebush populations, as well as limited information about the species’ ecology , indicate species distribution modeling would

  6. Coexistence of two species in a strongly coupled cooperating model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael

    In this paper, the cooperating two-species Lotka-Volterra model is discussed. We study the existence of solutions to a elliptic system with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions. Our results show that this problem possesses at least one coexistence state if the birth rates are big and self...

  7. Predictions for an invaded world: A strategy to predict the distribution of native and non-indigenous species at multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reusser, D.A.; Lee, H.

    2008-01-01

    Habitat models can be used to predict the distributions of marine and estuarine non-indigenous species (NIS) over several spatial scales. At an estuary scale, our goal is to predict the estuaries most likely to be invaded, but at a habitat scale, the goal is to predict the specific locations within an estuary that are most vulnerable to invasion. As an initial step in evaluating several habitat models, model performance for a suite of benthic species with reasonably well-known distributions on the Pacific coast of the US needs to be compared. We discuss the utility of non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for predicting habitat- and estuary-scale distributions of native and NIS. NPMR incorporates interactions among variables, allows qualitative and categorical variables, and utilizes data on absence as well as presence. Preliminary results indicate that NPMR generally performs well at both spatial scales and that distributions of NIS are predicted as well as those of native species. For most species, latitude was the single best predictor, although similar model performance could be obtained at both spatial scales with combinations of other habitat variables. Errors of commission were more frequent at a habitat scale, with omission and commission errors approximately equal at an estuary scale. ?? 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved.

  8. Development of Solar Drying Model for Selected Cambodian Fish Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Hubackova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A solar drying was investigated as one of perspective techniques for fish processing in Cambodia. The solar drying was compared to conventional drying in electric oven. Five typical Cambodian fish species were selected for this study. Mean solar drying temperature and drying air relative humidity were 55.6°C and 19.9%, respectively. The overall solar dryer efficiency was 12.37%, which is typical for natural convection solar dryers. An average evaporative capacity of solar dryer was 0.049 kg·h−1. Based on coefficient of determination (R2, chi-square (χ2 test, and root-mean-square error (RMSE, the most suitable models describing natural convection solar drying kinetics were Logarithmic model, Diffusion approximate model, and Two-term model for climbing perch and Nile tilapia, swamp eel and walking catfish and Channa fish, respectively. In case of electric oven drying, the Modified Page 1 model shows the best results for all investigated fish species except Channa fish where the two-term model is the best one. Sensory evaluation shows that most preferable fish is climbing perch, followed by Nile tilapia and walking catfish. This study brings new knowledge about drying kinetics of fresh water fish species in Cambodia and confirms the solar drying as acceptable technology for fish processing.

  9. A new Multiple ANFIS model for classification of hemiplegic gait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yardimci, A; Asilkan, O

    2014-01-01

    Neuro-fuzzy system is a combination of neural network and fuzzy system in such a way that neural network learning algorithms, is used to determine parameters of the fuzzy system. This paper describes the application of multiple adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (MANFIS) model which has hybrid learning algorithm for classification of hemiplegic gait acceleration (HGA) signals. Decision making was performed in two stages: feature extraction using the wavelet transforms (WT) and the ANFIS trained with the backpropagation gradient descent method in combination with the least squares method. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated in terms of training performance and classification accuracies and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has potential in classifying the HGA signals.

  10. Dynamic coordinated control laws in multiple agent models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, David S.; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2005-01-01

    We present an active control scheme of a kinetic model of swarming. It has been shown previously that the global control scheme for the model, presented in [Systems Control Lett. 52 (2004) 25], gives rise to spontaneous collective organization of agents into a unified coherent swarm, via steering controls and utilizing long-range attractive and short-range repulsive interactions. We extend these results by presenting control laws whereby a single swarm is broken into independently functioning subswarm clusters. The transition between one coordinated swarm and multiple clustered subswarms is managed simply with a homotopy parameter. Additionally, we present as an alternate formulation, a local control law for the same model, which implements dynamic barrier avoidance behavior, and in which swarm coherence emerges spontaneously

  11. Integrating multiple distribution models to guide conservation efforts of an endangered toad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treglia, Michael L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

    2015-01-01

    Species distribution models are used for numerous purposes such as predicting changes in species’ ranges and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Although implications of distribution models for conservation are often implicit, few studies use these tools explicitly to inform conservation efforts. Herein, we illustrate how multiple distribution models developed using distinct sets of environmental variables can be integrated to aid in identification sites for use in conservation. We focus on the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus), which relies on open, sandy streams and surrounding floodplains in southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico. Declines of the species are largely attributed to habitat degradation associated with vegetation encroachment, invasive predators, and altered hydrologic regimes. We had three main goals: 1) develop a model of potential habitat for arroyo toads, based on long-term environmental variables and all available locality data; 2) develop a model of the species’ current habitat by incorporating recent remotely-sensed variables and only using recent locality data; and 3) integrate results of both models to identify sites that may be employed in conservation efforts. We used a machine learning technique, Random Forests, to develop the models, focused on riparian zones in southern California. We identified 14.37% and 10.50% of our study area as potential and current habitat for the arroyo toad, respectively. Generally, inclusion of remotely-sensed variables reduced modeled suitability of sites, thus many areas modeled as potential habitat were not modeled as current habitat. We propose such sites could be made suitable for arroyo toads through active management, increasing current habitat by up to 67.02%. Our general approach can be employed to guide conservation efforts of virtually any species with sufficient data necessary to develop appropriate distribution models.

  12. Beyond Streptococcus mutans: dental caries onset linked to multiple species by 16S rRNA community analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin L Gross

    Full Text Available Dental caries in very young children may be severe, result in serious infection, and require general anesthesia for treatment. Dental caries results from a shift within the biofilm community specific to the tooth surface, and acidogenic species are responsible for caries. Streptococcus mutans, the most common acid producer in caries, is not always present and occurs as part of a complex microbial community. Understanding the degree to which multiple acidogenic species provide functional redundancy and resilience to caries-associated communities will be important for developing biologic interventions. In addition, microbial community interactions in health and caries pathogenesis are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate bacterial community profiles associated with the onset of caries in the primary dentition. In a combination cross-sectional and longitudinal design, bacterial community profiles at progressive stages of caries and over time were examined and compared to those of health. 16S rRNA gene sequencing was used for bacterial community analysis. Streptococcus mutans was the dominant species in many, but not all, subjects with caries. Elevated levels of S. salivarius, S. sobrinus, and S. parasanguinis were also associated with caries, especially in subjects with no or low levels of S. mutans, suggesting these species are alternative pathogens, and that multiple species may need to be targeted for interventions. Veillonella, which metabolizes lactate, was associated with caries and was highly correlated with total acid producing species. Among children without previous history of caries, Veillonella, but not S. mutans or other acid-producing species, predicted future caries. Bacterial community diversity was reduced in caries as compared to health, as many species appeared to occur at lower levels or be lost as caries advanced, including the Streptococcus mitis group, Neisseria, and Streptococcus sanguinis. This

  13. Beyond Streptococcus mutans: Dental Caries Onset Linked to Multiple Species by 16S rRNA Community Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Erin L.; Beall, Clifford J.; Kutsch, Stacey R.; Firestone, Noah D.; Leys, Eugene J.; Griffen, Ann L.

    2012-01-01

    Dental caries in very young children may be severe, result in serious infection, and require general anesthesia for treatment. Dental caries results from a shift within the biofilm community specific to the tooth surface, and acidogenic species are responsible for caries. Streptococcus mutans, the most common acid producer in caries, is not always present and occurs as part of a complex microbial community. Understanding the degree to which multiple acidogenic species provide functional redundancy and resilience to caries-associated communities will be important for developing biologic interventions. In addition, microbial community interactions in health and caries pathogenesis are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate bacterial community profiles associated with the onset of caries in the primary dentition. In a combination cross-sectional and longitudinal design, bacterial community profiles at progressive stages of caries and over time were examined and compared to those of health. 16S rRNA gene sequencing was used for bacterial community analysis. Streptococcus mutans was the dominant species in many, but not all, subjects with caries. Elevated levels of S. salivarius, S. sobrinus, and S. parasanguinis were also associated with caries, especially in subjects with no or low levels of S. mutans, suggesting these species are alternative pathogens, and that multiple species may need to be targeted for interventions. Veillonella, which metabolizes lactate, was associated with caries and was highly correlated with total acid producing species. Among children without previous history of caries, Veillonella, but not S. mutans or other acid-producing species, predicted future caries. Bacterial community diversity was reduced in caries as compared to health, as many species appeared to occur at lower levels or be lost as caries advanced, including the Streptococcus mitis group, Neisseria, and Streptococcus sanguinis. This may have

  14. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model of internal barriers to drug treatment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Chang; Kelly, Brian C; Liao, Yanhui; He, Haoyu; Luo, Tao; Deng, Huiqiong; Liu, Tieqiao; Hao, Wei; Wang, Jichuan

    2015-03-01

    Although evidence exists for distinct barriers to drug abuse treatment (BDATs), investigations of their inter-relationships and the effect of individual characteristics on the barrier factors have been sparse, especially in China. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model is applied for this target. A sample of 262 drug users were recruited from three drug rehabilitation centers in Hunan Province, China. We applied a MIMIC approach to investigate the effect of gender, age, marital status, education, primary substance use, duration of primary drug use, and drug treatment experience on the internal barrier factors: absence of problem (AP), negative social support (NSS), fear of treatment (FT), and privacy concerns (PC). Drug users of various characteristics were found to report different internal barrier factors. Younger participants were more likely to report NSS (-0.19, p=0.038) and PC (-0.31, pdrug users, ice users were more likely to report AP (0.44, pDrug treatment experiences related to AP (0.20, p=0.012). In addition, differential item functioning (DIF) occurred in three items when participant from groups with different duration of drug use, ice use, or marital status. Individual characteristics had significant effects on internal barriers to drug treatment. On this basis, BDAT perceived by different individuals could be assessed before tactics were utilized to successfully remove perceived barriers to drug treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A multiple relevance feedback strategy with positive and negative models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunlong Ma

    Full Text Available A commonly used strategy to improve search accuracy is through feedback techniques. Most existing work on feedback relies on positive information, and has been extensively studied in information retrieval. However, when a query topic is difficult and the results from the first-pass retrieval are very poor, it is impossible to extract enough useful terms from a few positive documents. Therefore, the positive feedback strategy is incapable to improve retrieval in this situation. Contrarily, there is a relatively large number of negative documents in the top of the result list, and it has been confirmed that negative feedback strategy is an important and useful way for adapting this scenario by several recent studies. In this paper, we consider a scenario when the search results are so poor that there are at most three relevant documents in the top twenty documents. Then, we conduct a novel study of multiple strategies for relevance feedback using both positive and negative examples from the first-pass retrieval to improve retrieval accuracy for such difficult queries. Experimental results on these TREC collections show that the proposed language model based multiple model feedback method which is generally more effective than both the baseline method and the methods using only positive or negative model.

  16. A multiple relevance feedback strategy with positive and negative models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yunlong; Lin, Hongfei

    2014-01-01

    A commonly used strategy to improve search accuracy is through feedback techniques. Most existing work on feedback relies on positive information, and has been extensively studied in information retrieval. However, when a query topic is difficult and the results from the first-pass retrieval are very poor, it is impossible to extract enough useful terms from a few positive documents. Therefore, the positive feedback strategy is incapable to improve retrieval in this situation. Contrarily, there is a relatively large number of negative documents in the top of the result list, and it has been confirmed that negative feedback strategy is an important and useful way for adapting this scenario by several recent studies. In this paper, we consider a scenario when the search results are so poor that there are at most three relevant documents in the top twenty documents. Then, we conduct a novel study of multiple strategies for relevance feedback using both positive and negative examples from the first-pass retrieval to improve retrieval accuracy for such difficult queries. Experimental results on these TREC collections show that the proposed language model based multiple model feedback method which is generally more effective than both the baseline method and the methods using only positive or negative model.

  17. Protein Structure Classification and Loop Modeling Using Multiple Ramachandran Distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Najibi, Seyed Morteza

    2017-02-08

    Recently, the study of protein structures using angular representations has attracted much attention among structural biologists. The main challenge is how to efficiently model the continuous conformational space of the protein structures based on the differences and similarities between different Ramachandran plots. Despite the presence of statistical methods for modeling angular data of proteins, there is still a substantial need for more sophisticated and faster statistical tools to model the large-scale circular datasets. To address this need, we have developed a nonparametric method for collective estimation of multiple bivariate density functions for a collection of populations of protein backbone angles. The proposed method takes into account the circular nature of the angular data using trigonometric spline which is more efficient compared to existing methods. This collective density estimation approach is widely applicable when there is a need to estimate multiple density functions from different populations with common features. Moreover, the coefficients of adaptive basis expansion for the fitted densities provide a low-dimensional representation that is useful for visualization, clustering, and classification of the densities. The proposed method provides a novel and unique perspective to two important and challenging problems in protein structure research: structure-based protein classification and angular-sampling-based protein loop structure prediction.

  18. Inflation with multiple sound speeds: A model of multiple DBI type actions and non-Gaussianities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Yifu; Xia Haiying

    2009-01-01

    In this Letter we study adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations in the frame of inflation with multiple sound speeds involved. We suggest this scenario can be realized by a number of generalized scalar fields with arbitrary kinetic forms. These scalars have their own sound speeds respectively, so the propagations of field fluctuations are individual. Specifically, we study a model constructed by two DBI type actions. We find that the critical length scale for the freezing of perturbations corresponds to the maximum sound horizon. Moreover, if the mass term of one field is much lighter than that of the other, the entropy perturbation could be quite large and so may give rise to a growth outside sound horizon. At cubic order, we find that the non-Gaussianity of local type is possibly large when entropy perturbations are able to convert into curvature perturbations. We also calculate the non-Gaussianity of equilateral type approximately.

  19. Computational Modelling of Cancer Development and Growth: Modelling at Multiple Scales and Multiscale Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymańska, Zuzanna; Cytowski, Maciej; Mitchell, Elaine; Macnamara, Cicely K; Chaplain, Mark A J

    2017-06-20

    In this paper, we present two mathematical models related to different aspects and scales of cancer growth. The first model is a stochastic spatiotemporal model of both a synthetic gene regulatory network (the example of a three-gene repressilator is given) and an actual gene regulatory network, the NF-[Formula: see text]B pathway. The second model is a force-based individual-based model of the development of a solid avascular tumour with specific application to tumour cords, i.e. a mass of cancer cells growing around a central blood vessel. In each case, we compare our computational simulation results with experimental data. In the final discussion section, we outline how to take the work forward through the development of a multiscale model focussed at the cell level. This would incorporate key intracellular signalling pathways associated with cancer within each cell (e.g. p53-Mdm2, NF-[Formula: see text]B) and through the use of high-performance computing be capable of simulating up to [Formula: see text] cells, i.e. the tissue scale. In this way, mathematical models at multiple scales would be combined to formulate a multiscale computational model.

  20. Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling (SDM is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1 spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2 differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3 the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.

  1. Challenges in LCA modelling of multiple loops for aluminium cans

    OpenAIRE

    Niero, Monia; Olsen, Stig Irving

    2016-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has traditionally played a key role in identifying the most efficient envi- ronmental design strategies and the best option for the end-of-life of products from an environmental point of view, within “one life cycle” approach. However, such an approach fails to capture one of themain features of circular product systems, i.e. the need to model multiple life cycles. There are some key methodological challenges that LCA has to face in order to exploit its potential i...

  2. Competing associations in six-species predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabo, Gyoergy

    2005-01-01

    We study a set of six-species ecological models where each species has two predators and two prey. On a square lattice the time evolution is governed by iterated invasions between the neighbouring predator-prey pairs chosen at random and by a site exchange with a probability X s between the neutral pairs. These models involve the possibility of spontaneous formation of different defensive alliances whose members protect each other from the external invaders. The Monte Carlo simulations show a surprisingly rich variety of the stable spatial distributions of species and subsequent phase transitions when tuning the control parameter X s . These very simple models are able to demonstrate that the competition between these associations influences their composition. Sometimes the dominant association is developed via a domain growth. In other cases larger and larger invasion processes precede the prevalence of one of the stable associations. Under some conditions the survival of all the species can be maintained by the cyclic dominance occurring between these associations

  3. A multiple-location model for natural gas forward curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buffington, J.C.

    1999-06-01

    This thesis presents an approach for financial modelling of natural gas in which connections between locations are incorporated and the complexities of forward curves in natural gas are considered. Apart from electricity, natural gas is the most volatile commodity traded. Its price is often dependent on the weather and price shocks can be felt across several geographic locations. This modelling approach incorporates multiple risk factors that correspond to various locations. One of the objectives was to determine if the model could be used for closed-form option prices. It was suggested that an adequate model for natural gas must consider 3 statistical properties: volatility term structure, backwardation and contango, and stochastic basis. Data from gas forward prices at Chicago, NYMEX and AECO were empirically tested to better understand these 3 statistical properties at each location and to verify if the proposed model truly incorporates these properties. In addition, this study examined the time series property of the difference of two locations (the basis) and determines that these empirical properties are consistent with the model properties. Closed-form option solutions were also developed for call options of forward contracts and call options on forward basis. The options were calibrated and compared to other models. The proposed model is capable of pricing options, but the prices derived did not pass the test of economic reasonableness. However, the model was able to capture the effect of transportation as well as aspects of seasonality which is a benefit over other existing models. It was determined that modifications will be needed regarding the estimation of the convenience yields. 57 refs., 2 tabs., 7 figs., 1 append

  4. Functional traits drive the contribution of solar radiation to leaf litter decomposition among multiple arid-zone species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xu; Song, Yao-Bin; Liu, Guo-Fang; Hu, Yu-Kun; Ye, Xue-Hua; Cornwell, William K; Prinzing, Andreas; Dong, Ming; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2015-08-18

    In arid zones, strong solar radiation has important consequences for ecosystem processes. To better understand carbon and nutrient dynamics, it is important to know the contribution of solar radiation to leaf litter decomposition of different arid-zone species. Here we investigated: (1) whether such contribution varies among plant species at given irradiance regime, (2) whether interspecific variation in such contribution correlates with interspecific variation in the decomposition rate under shade; and (3) whether this correlation can be explained by leaf traits. We conducted a factorial experiment to determine the effects of solar radiation and environmental moisture for the mass loss and the decomposition constant k-values of 13 species litters collected in Northern China. The contribution of solar radiation to leaf litter decomposition varied significantly among species. Solar radiation accelerated decomposition in particular in the species that already decompose quickly under shade. Functional traits, notably specific leaf area, might predict the interspecific variation in that contribution. Our results provide the first empirical evidence for how the effect of solar radiation on decomposition varies among multiple species. Thus, the effect of solar radiation on the carbon flux between biosphere and atmosphere may depend on the species composition of the vegetation.

  5. Production of sophorolipids biosurfactants by multiple species of the Starmerella (Candida) bombicola yeast clade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sophorolipid production was tested for 26 strains representing 19 species of the Starmerella yeast clade, including S. bombicola and Candida apicola, which were previously reported to produce sophorolipids. Five of the 19 species tested showed significant production of sophorolipids: S. bombicola, ...

  6. Species limits and relationships within Otidea inferred from multiple gene phylogenies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, K.; Olariaga, I.

    2015-01-01

    The genus Otidea is one of the more conspicuous members of the Pyronemataceae, with high species diversity in hemiboreal and boreal forests. The genus is morphologically coherent and in previous higher-level multi-gene analyses it formed a highly supported monophyletic group. Species delimitation

  7. Characterization of Blue Mold Penicillium Species Isolated from Stored Fruits Using Multiple Highly Conserved Loci

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guohua Yin

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Penicillium is a large genus of common molds with over 400 described species; however, identification of individual species is difficult, including for those species that cause postharvest rots. In this study, blue rot fungi from stored apples and pears were isolated from a variety of hosts, locations, and years. Based on morphological and cultural characteristics and partial amplification of the β-tubulin locus, the isolates were provisionally identified as several different species of Penicillium. These isolates were investigated further using a suite of molecular DNA markers and compared to sequences of the ex-type for cognate species in GenBank, and were identified as P. expansum (3 isolates, P. solitum (3 isolates, P. carneum (1 isolate, and P. paneum (1 isolate. Three of the markers we used (ITS, internal transcribed spacer rDNA sequence; benA, β-tubulin; CaM, calmodulin were suitable for distinguishing most of our isolates from one another at the species level. In contrast, we were unable to amplify RPB2 sequences from four of the isolates. Comparison of our sequences with cognate sequences in GenBank from isolates with the same species names did not always give coherent data, reinforcing earlier studies that have shown large intraspecific variability in many Penicillium species, as well as possible errors in some sequence data deposited in GenBank.

  8. Modeling species invasions in Ecopath with Ecosim: an evaluation using Laurentian Great Lakes models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langseth, Brian J.; Rogers, Mark; Zhang, Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Invasive species affect the structure and processes of ecosystems they invade. Invasive species have been particularly relevant to the Laurentian Great Lakes, where they have played a part in both historical and recent changes to Great Lakes food webs and the fisheries supported therein. There is increased interest in understanding the effects of ecosystem changes on fisheries within the Great Lakes, and ecosystem models provide an essential tool from which this understanding can take place. A commonly used model for exploring fisheries management questions within an ecosystem context is the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling software. Incorporating invasive species into EwE models is a challenging process, and descriptions and comparisons of methods for modeling species invasions are lacking. We compared four methods for incorporating invasive species into EwE models for both Lake Huron and Lake Michigan based on the ability of each to reproduce patterns in observed data time series. The methods differed in whether invasive species biomass was forced in the model, the initial level of invasive species biomass at the beginning of time dynamic simulations, and the approach to cause invasive species biomass to increase at the time of invasion. The overall process of species invasion could be reproduced by all methods, but fits to observed time series varied among the methods and models considered. We recommend forcing invasive species biomass when model objectives are to understand ecosystem impacts in the past and when time series of invasive species biomass are available. Among methods where invasive species time series were not forced, mediating the strength of predator–prey interactions performed best for the Lake Huron model, but worse for the Lake Michigan model. Starting invasive species biomass at high values and then artificially removing biomass until the time of invasion performed well for both models, but was more complex than starting invasive species

  9. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  10. CARBON-CHAIN SPECIES IN WARM-UP MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassel, George E.; Harada, Nanase; Herbst, Eric

    2011-01-01

    In previous warm-up chemical models of the low-mass star-forming region L1527, we investigated the evolution of carbon-chain unsaturated hydrocarbon species when the envelope temperature is slightly elevated to T ≈ 30 K. These models demonstrated that enhanced abundances of such species can be explained by gas-phase ion-molecule chemistry following the partial sublimation of methane from grain surfaces. We also concluded that the abundances of hydrocarbon radicals such as the C n H family should be further enhanced as the temperatures increase to higher values, but this conclusion stood in contrast with the lack of unambiguous detection of these species toward hot core and corino sources. Meanwhile, observational surveys have identified C 2 H, C 4 H, CH 3 CCH, and CH 3 OH toward hot corinos (especially IRAS 16293–2422) as well as toward L1527, with lower abundances for the carbon-chain radicals and higher abundances for the other two species toward the hot corinos. In addition, the Herschel Space Telescope has detected the bare linear chain C 3 in 50 K material surrounding young high-mass stellar objects. To understand these new results, we revisit previous warm-up models with an augmented gas-grain network that incorporated reactions from a gas-phase network that was constructed for use with increased temperature up to 800 K. Some of the newly adopted reactions between carbon-chain species and abundant H 2 possess chemical activation energy barriers. The revised model results now better reproduce the observed abundances of unsaturated carbon chains under hot corino (100 K) conditions and make predictions for the abundances of bare carbon chains in the 50 K regions observed by the Herschel HIFI detector.

  11. Generalized multiplicative error models: Asymptotic inference and empirical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian

    This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part focuses on extended Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) that include two extreme cases for nonnegative series. These extreme cases are common phenomena in high-frequency financial time series. The Location MEM(p,q) model incorporates a location parameter so that the series are required to have positive lower bounds. The estimator for the location parameter turns out to be the minimum of all the observations and is shown to be consistent. The second case captures the nontrivial fraction of zero outcomes feature in a series and combines a so-called Zero-Augmented general F distribution with linear MEM(p,q). Under certain strict stationary and moment conditions, we establish a consistency and asymptotic normality of the semiparametric estimation for these two new models. The second part of this dissertation examines the differences and similarities between trades in the home market and trades in the foreign market of cross-listed stocks. We exploit the multiplicative framework to model trading duration, volume per trade and price volatility for Canadian shares that are cross-listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). We explore the clustering effect, interaction between trading variables, and the time needed for price equilibrium after a perturbation for each market. The clustering effect is studied through the use of univariate MEM(1,1) on each variable, while the interactions among duration, volume and price volatility are captured by a multivariate system of MEM(p,q). After estimating these models by a standard QMLE procedure, we exploit the Impulse Response function to compute the calendar time for a perturbation in these variables to be absorbed into price variance, and use common statistical tests to identify the difference between the two markets in each aspect. These differences are of considerable interest to traders, stock exchanges and policy makers.

  12. Quantifying inter-species differences in contractile function through biophysical modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøndel, Kristin; Land, Sander; Niederer, Steven A; Smith, Nicolas P

    2015-03-01

    Animal models and measurements are frequently used to guide and evaluate clinical interventions. In this context, knowledge of inter-species differences in physiology is crucial for understanding the limitations and relevance of animal experimental assays for informing clinical applications. Extensive effort has been put into studying the structure and function of cardiac contractile proteins and how differences in these translate into the functional properties of muscles. However, integrating this knowledge into a quantitative description, formalising and highlighting inter-species differences both in the kinetics and in the regulation of physiological mechanisms, remains challenging. In this study we propose and apply a novel approach for the quantification of inter-species differences between mouse, rat and human. Assuming conservation of the fundamental physiological mechanisms underpinning contraction, biophysically based computational models are fitted to simulate experimentally recorded phenotypes from multiple species. The phenotypic differences between species are then succinctly quantified as differences in the biophysical model parameter values. This provides the potential of quantitatively establishing the human relevance of both animal-based experimental and computational models for application in a clinical context. Our results indicate that the parameters related to the sensitivity and cooperativity of calcium binding to troponin C and the activation and relaxation rates of tropomyosin/crossbridge binding kinetics differ most significantly between mouse, rat and human, while for example the reference tension, as expected, shows only minor differences between the species. Hence, while confirming expected inter-species differences in calcium sensitivity due to large differences in the observed calcium transients, our results also indicate more unexpected differences in the cooperativity mechanism. Specifically, the decrease in the unbinding rate of

  13. SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guisan, Antoine; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    , and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both......Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts...... with constituent species to approximate the properties of assemblages. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single ‘spatially explicit species assemblage modelling’ (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant designations of initial species source pools for modelling, macroecological variables...

  14. Development of Species Sensitivity Distributions for Wildlife Using Interspecies Toxicity Correlation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Species sensitivity distributions (SSD) are cumulative distributions of chemical toxicity of multiple species and have had limited application in wildlife risk assessment because of relatively small datasets of wildlife toxicity values. Interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) m...

  15. MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF TWO-SPECIES RELATIVISTIC FLUIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastiano Giambo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available An interface-capturing method is used to deduce equations governingfluid motion in a relativistic two-species flow. These kind of methodscombine simple fluid flow equations, which are the balance law forparticle number and energy-momentum tensor conservation equationfor global fluid, the balance laws for particle number density of eachspecies, with extra equations. Since equations of multi-species relativistic fluid are not closed assigning laws of the state of each species, closure equations are necessarily introduced. A model based on the axiom of existence of a temperature and an entropy for the global fluid, which verify an equation analogous to that holding in the case of a simple fluid, is formulated. Weak discontinuities compatible with such kind of mixture are also studied.

  16. Multiplicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-04-01

    Virginia, 388 U.S. 1 (1967)(criminal statute prohibiting interracial marriages held unconstitutional violation of the Equal Protection and Due Process...such sentences does not violate the Constitution."°2 7 In effect , the double jeopardy protection from multiple punishments is coextensive with...unaware of what it accomplished . . . . In effect , the Blockburger test establishes a presumption of legislative intent: if each of two statutes

  17. Confronting different models of community structure to species-abundance data : a Bayesian model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, RS; Olff, H

    Species abundances are undoubtedly the most widely available macroecological data, but can we use them to distinguish among several models of community structure? Here we present a Bayesian analysis of species-abundance data that yields a full joint probability distribution of each model's

  18. Confronting different models of community structure to species-abundance data: a Bayesian model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, R.S.; Olff, H.

    2005-01-01

    Species abundances are undoubtedly the most widely available macroecological data, but can we use them to distinguish among several models of community structure? Here we present a Bayesian analysis of species-abundance data that yields a full joint probability distribution of each model's

  19. Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the

  20. Coilgun Acceleration Model Containing Interactions Between Multiple Coils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Connie; Polzin, Kurt; Martin, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Electromagnetic (EM) accelerators have the potential to fill a performance range not currently being met by conventional chemical and electric propulsion systems by providing a specific impulse of 600-1000 seconds and a thrust-to-power ratio greater than 200 mN/kW. A propulsion system based on EM acceleration of small projectiles has the traditional advantages of using a pulsed system, including precise control over a range of thrust and power levels as well as rapid response and repetition rates. Furthermore, EM accelerators have lower power requirements than conventional electric propulsion systems since no plasma creation is necessary. A coilgun is a specific type of EM device where a high-current pulse through a coil of wire interacts with a conductive projectile via an induced magnetic field to accelerate the projectile. There are no physical or electrical connections to the projectile, which leads to less system degradation and a longer life expectancy. Multi-staging a coilgun by adding multiple turns on a single coil or on the projectile increases the inductance, thus permitting acceleration of the projectile to higher velocities. Previously, a simplified problem of modeling an inductively-coupled, single-coil coilgun using a circuit-based analysis coupled to the one-dimensional momentum equation through Lenz's law was solved; however, the analysis was only conducted on uncoupled coils. The problem is significantly more complicated when multiple, independently-powered coils simultaneously operate and interact with each other and the projectile through induced magnetic fields. This paper presents a multi-coil model developed with the magnetostatic finite element solver QuickField. In the model, mutual inductance values between pairs of conductors were found by first computing the magnetic field energy for different cases where individual coils or multiple coils carry current, then integrating over the entire finite element domain for each case, and finally

  1. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  2. Multiple Scattering Model for Optical Coherence Tomography with Rytov Approximation

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Muxingzi

    2017-04-24

    Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is a coherence-gated, micrometer-resolution imaging technique that focuses a broadband near-infrared laser beam to penetrate into optical scattering media, e.g. biological tissues. The OCT resolution is split into two parts, with the axial resolution defined by half the coherence length, and the depth-dependent lateral resolution determined by the beam geometry, which is well described by a Gaussian beam model. The depth dependence of lateral resolution directly results in the defocusing effect outside the confocal region and restricts current OCT probes to small numerical aperture (NA) at the expense of lateral resolution near the focus. Another limitation on OCT development is the presence of a mixture of speckles due to multiple scatterers within the coherence length, and other random noise. Motivated by the above two challenges, a multiple scattering model based on Rytov approximation and Gaussian beam optics is proposed for the OCT setup. Some previous papers have adopted the first Born approximation with the assumption of small perturbation of the incident field in inhomogeneous media. The Rytov method of the same order with smooth phase perturbation assumption benefits from a wider spatial range of validity. A deconvolution method for solving the inverse problem associated with the first Rytov approximation is developed, significantly reducing the defocusing effect through depth and therefore extending the feasible range of NA.

  3. Resveratrol Neuroprotection in a Chronic Mouse Model of Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoe eFonseca-Kelly

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Resveratrol is a naturally-occurring polyphenol that activates SIRT1, an NAD-dependent deacetylase. SRT501, a pharmaceutical formulation of resveratrol with enhanced systemic absorption, prevents neuronal loss without suppressing inflammation in mice with relapsing experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE, a model of multiple sclerosis. In contrast, resveratrol has been reported to suppress inflammation in chronic EAE, although neuroprotective effects were not evaluated. The current studies examine potential neuroprotective and immunomodulatory effects of resveratrol in chronic EAE induced by immunization with myelin oligodendroglial glycoprotein peptide in C57/Bl6 mice. Effects of two distinct formulations of resveratrol administered daily orally were compared. Resveratrol delayed the onset of EAE compared to vehicle-treated EAE mice, but did not prevent or alter the phenotype of inflammation in spinal cords or optic nerves. Significant neuroprotective effects were observed, with higher numbers of retinal ganglion cells found in eyes of resveratrol-treated EAE mice with optic nerve inflammation. Results demonstrate that resveratrol prevents neuronal loss in this chronic demyelinating disease model, similar to its effects in relapsing EAE. Differences in immunosuppression compared with prior studies suggest that immunomodulatory effects may be limited and may depend on specific immunization parameters or timing of treatment. Importantly, neuroprotective effects can occur without immunosuppression, suggesting a potential additive benefit of resveratrol in combination with anti-inflammatory therapies for multiple sclerosis.

  4. The predictive performance and stability of six species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Fan, Wei-Yi; Wang, Zhi-Gao

    2014-01-01

    Predicting species' potential geographical range by species distribution models (SDMs) is central to understand their ecological requirements. However, the effects of using different modeling techniques need further investigation. In order to improve the prediction effect, we need to assess the predictive performance and stability of different SDMs. We collected the distribution data of five common tree species (Pinus massoniana, Betula platyphylla, Quercus wutaishanica, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis) and simulated their potential distribution area using 13 environmental variables and six widely used SDMs: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Each model run was repeated 100 times (trials). We compared the predictive performance by testing the consistency between observations and simulated distributions and assessed the stability by the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the 99% confidence interval of Kappa and AUC values. The mean values of AUC and Kappa from MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM trials were similar and significantly higher than those from BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (pSDMs (MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM) had higher prediction accuracy, smaller confidence intervals, and were more stable and less affected by the random variable (randomly selected pseudo-absence points). According to the prediction performance and stability of SDMs, we can divide these six SDMs into two categories: a high performance and stability group including MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM, and a low performance and stability group consisting of BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN. We highlight that choosing appropriate SDMs to address a specific problem is an important part of the modeling process.

  5. Optimal Retail Price Model for Partial Consignment to Multiple Retailers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the product pricing decision-making problem under a consignment stock policy in a two-level supply chain composed of one supplier and multiple retailers. The effects of the supplier’s wholesale prices and its partial inventory cost absorption of the retail prices of retailers with different market shares are investigated. In the partial product consignment model this paper proposes, the seller and the retailers each absorb part of the inventory costs. This model also provides general solutions for the complete product consignment and the traditional policy that adopts no product consignment. In other words, both the complete consignment and nonconsignment models are extensions of the proposed model (i.e., special cases. Research results indicated that the optimal retail price must be between 1/2 (50% and 2/3 (66.67% times the upper limit of the gross profit. This study also explored the results and influence of parameter variations on optimal retail price in the model.

  6. Multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann model for compressible fluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Feng; Xu Aiguo; Zhang Guangcai; Li Yingjun

    2011-01-01

    We present an energy-conserving multiple-relaxation-time finite difference lattice Boltzmann model for compressible flows. The collision step is first calculated in the moment space and then mapped back to the velocity space. The moment space and corresponding transformation matrix are constructed according to the group representation theory. Equilibria of the nonconserved moments are chosen according to the need of recovering compressible Navier-Stokes equations through the Chapman-Enskog expansion. Numerical experiments showed that compressible flows with strong shocks can be well simulated by the present model. The new model works for both low and high speeds compressible flows. It contains more physical information and has better numerical stability and accuracy than its single-relaxation-time version. - Highlights: → We present an energy-conserving MRT finite-difference LB model. → The moment space is constructed according to the group representation theory. → The new model works for both low and high speeds compressible flows. → It has better numerical stability and wider applicable range than its SRT version.

  7. Modeling Social Networks with Node Attributes using the Multiplicative Attribute Graph Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-24

    ar X iv :1 10 6. 50 53 v1 [ cs .S I] 2 4 Ju n 20 11 Modeling Social Networks with Node Attributes using the Multiplicative Attribute Graph...Modeling Social Networks with Node Attributes using the Multiplicative Attribute Graph Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...protean model for on-line social networks . In WAW ’10, 2010. [3] M. Faloutsos, P. Faloutsos, and C. Faloutsos. On power-law relationships of the internet

  8. Enhancement of Innate and Adaptive Immune Functions by Multiple Echinacea Species

    OpenAIRE

    Zhai, Zili; Liu, Yi; Wu, Lankun; Senchina, David S.; Wurtele, Eve S.; Murphy, Patricia A.; Kohut, Marian L.; Cunnick, Joan E.

    2007-01-01

    Echinacea preparations are commonly used as nonspecific immunomodulatory agents. Alcohol extracts from three widely used Echinacea species, Echinacea angustifolia, Echinacea pallida, and Echinacea purpurea, were investigated for immunomodulating properties. The three Echinacea species demonstrated a broad difference in concentrations of individual lipophilic amides and hydrophilic caffeic acid derivatives. Mice were gavaged once a day (for 7 days) with one of the Echinacea extracts (130 mg/kg...

  9. Multiple Plantago species (Plantaginaceae) modify floral reflectance and color in response to thermal change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Erin R; Lovin, Mary E; Richter, Scott J; Lacey, Elizabeth P

    2013-12-01

    Understanding how plant reproduction responds to temperature has become increasingly important because of global climate change. Temperature-sensitive plasticity in floral reflectance is likely involved in some of these responses. Such plasticity, which underlies thermoregulatory ability, affects reproductive success in Plantago lanceolata. To see whether other Plantago species also show thermal plasticity in reflectance, we measured plasticity in P. lagopus, P. coronopus, P. major, P. subulata, P. albicans, P. tomentosa, P. maritima, and P. weldenii. We induced plants to flower at two temperatures in growth chambers and recorded floral reflectance (362-800 nm). All species were thermally plastic in visible and near-IR regions. Species and populations differed in response. Some showed greater variation in reflectance at warm temperature, while the reverse was true for others. Plasticity was greatest in the P. lanceolata clade. Cosmopolitan species were not more plastic than were geographically restricted species. The data suggest that (1) thermal plasticity is an ancestral trait for Plantago, (2) plasticities in visible and near-IR regions have evolved along different pathways within the genus, and (3) phylogenetic history partially explains this evolutionary divergence. Our data combined with those of previous studies suggest that global climate change will modify floral reflectance and color in many plant species. These modifications are likely to affect plant reproductive success.

  10. Consumer preference for seeds and seedlings of rare species impacts tree diversity at multiple scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Hillary S; McCauley, Douglas J; Guevara, Roger; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2013-07-01

    Positive density-dependent seed and seedling predation, where herbivores selectively eat seeds or seedlings of common species, is thought to play a major role in creating and maintaining plant community diversity. However, many herbivores and seed predators are known to exhibit preferences for rare foods, which could lead to negative density-dependent predation. In this study, we first demonstrate the occurrence of increased predation of locally rare tree species by a widespread group of insular seed and seedling predators, land crabs. We then build computer simulations based on these empirical data to examine the effects of such predation on diversity patterns. Simulations show that herbivore preferences for locally rare species are likely to drive scale-dependent effects on plant community diversity: at small scales these foraging patterns decrease plant community diversity via the selective consumption of rare plant species, while at the landscape level they should increase diversity, at least for short periods, by promoting clustered local dominance of a variety of species. Finally, we compared observed patterns of plant diversity at the site to those obtained via computer simulations, and found that diversity patterns generated under simulations were highly consistent with observed diversity patterns. We posit that preference for rare species by herbivores may be prevalent in low- or moderate-diversity systems, and that these effects may help explain diversity patterns across different spatial scales in such ecosystems.

  11. Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi'an, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong; Ge, Quansheng

    2013-09-01

    Phenological data of 42 woody plants in a temperate deciduous forest from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and the corresponding meteorological data from 1963 to 2011 in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China were collected and analyzed. The first leaf date (FLD), leaf coloring date (LCD) and first flower date (FFD) are revealed as strong biological signals of climatic change. The FLD, LCD and FFD of most species are sensitive to average temperature during a certain period before phenophase onset. Regional precipitation also has a significant impact on phenophases of about half of the species investigated. Affected by climate change, the FLD and FFD of these species have advanced by 5.54 days and 10.20 days on average during 2003-2011 compared with the period 1963-1996, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCD has delayed by 10.59 days, and growing season length has extended 16.13 days. Diverse responses of phenology commonly exist among different species and functional groups during the study period. Especially for FFD, the deviations between the above two periods ranged from -20.68 to -2.79 days; biotic pollination species showed a significantly greater advance than abiotic pollination species. These results were conducive to the understanding of possible changes in both the structure of plant communities and interspecific relationships in the context of climate change.

  12. Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

    2014-12-01

    Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

  13. A novel interacting multiple model based network intrusion detection scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Ruichi; Venkatasubramanian, Vijay; Leung, Henry

    2006-04-01

    In today's information age, information and network security are of primary importance to any organization. Network intrusion is a serious threat to security of computers and data networks. In internet protocol (IP) based network, intrusions originate in different kinds of packets/messages contained in the open system interconnection (OSI) layer 3 or higher layers. Network intrusion detection and prevention systems observe the layer 3 packets (or layer 4 to 7 messages) to screen for intrusions and security threats. Signature based methods use a pre-existing database that document intrusion patterns as perceived in the layer 3 to 7 protocol traffics and match the incoming traffic for potential intrusion attacks. Alternately, network traffic data can be modeled and any huge anomaly from the established traffic pattern can be detected as network intrusion. The latter method, also known as anomaly based detection is gaining popularity for its versatility in learning new patterns and discovering new attacks. It is apparent that for a reliable performance, an accurate model of the network data needs to be established. In this paper, we illustrate using collected data that network traffic is seldom stationary. We propose the use of multiple models to accurately represent the traffic data. The improvement in reliability of the proposed model is verified by measuring the detection and false alarm rates on several datasets.

  14. Detecting Multiple Random Changepoints in Bayesian Piecewise Growth Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Eric F; Kohli, Nidhi; Bose, Maitreyee

    2017-11-17

    Piecewise growth mixture models are a flexible and useful class of methods for analyzing segmented trends in individual growth trajectory over time, where the individuals come from a mixture of two or more latent classes. These models allow each segment of the overall developmental process within each class to have a different functional form; examples include two linear phases of growth, or a quadratic phase followed by a linear phase. The changepoint (knot) is the time of transition from one developmental phase (segment) to another. Inferring the location of the changepoint(s) is often of practical interest, along with inference for other model parameters. A random changepoint allows for individual differences in the transition time within each class. The primary objectives of our study are as follows: (1) to develop a PGMM using a Bayesian inference approach that allows the estimation of multiple random changepoints within each class; (2) to develop a procedure to empirically detect the number of random changepoints within each class; and (3) to empirically investigate the bias and precision of the estimation of the model parameters, including the random changepoints, via a simulation study. We have developed the user-friendly package BayesianPGMM for R to facilitate the adoption of this methodology in practice, which is available at https://github.com/lockEF/BayesianPGMM . We describe an application to mouse-tracking data for a visual recognition task.

  15. Analysis and application of opinion model with multiple topic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Wang, Liang; Wang, Ximeng

    2017-08-01

    To reveal heterogeneous behaviors of opinion evolution in different scenarios, we propose an opinion model with topic interactions. Individual opinions and topic features are represented by a multidimensional vector. We measure an agent's action towards a specific topic by the product of opinion and topic feature. When pairs of agents interact for a topic, their actions are introduced to opinion updates with bounded confidence. Simulation results show that a transition from a disordered state to a consensus state occurs at a critical point of the tolerance threshold, which depends on the opinion dimension. The critical point increases as the dimension of opinions increases. Multiple topics promote opinion interactions and lead to the formation of macroscopic opinion clusters. In addition, more topics accelerate the evolutionary process and weaken the effect of network topology. We use two sets of large-scale real data to evaluate the model, and the results prove its effectiveness in characterizing a real evolutionary process. Our model achieves high performance in individual action prediction and even outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Meanwhile, our model has much smaller computational complexity. This paper provides a demonstration for possible practical applications of theoretical opinion dynamics.

  16. Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conor P. McGowan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

  17. Population dynamics of species-rich ecosystems: the mixture of matrix population models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Rossi, Vivien; Guillot, Gilles

    2013-01-01

    Matrix population models are widely used to predict population dynamics, but when applied to species-rich ecosystems with many rare species, the small population sample sizes hinder a good fit of species-specific models. This issue can be overcome by assigning species to groups to increase the size...... species with similar population dynamics....

  18. Addressing missing data mechanism uncertainty using multiple-model multiple imputation: Application to a longitudinal clinical trial

    OpenAIRE

    Siddique, Juned; Harel, Ofer; Crespi, Catherine M.

    2013-01-01

    We present a framework for generating multiple imputations for continuous data when the missing data mechanism is unknown. Imputations are generated from more than one imputation model in order to incorporate uncertainty regarding the missing data mechanism. Parameter estimates based on the different imputation models are combined using rules for nested multiple imputation. Through the use of simulation, we investigate the impact of missing data mechanism uncertainty on post-imputation infere...

  19. Metabolomic Analyses of Leishmania Reveal Multiple Species Differences and Large Differences in Amino Acid Metabolism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareth D Westrop

    Full Text Available Comparative genomic analyses of Leishmania species have revealed relatively minor heterogeneity amongst recognised housekeeping genes and yet the species cause distinct infections and pathogenesis in their mammalian hosts. To gain greater information on the biochemical variation between species, and insights into possible metabolic mechanisms underpinning visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, we have undertaken in this study a comparative analysis of the metabolomes of promastigotes of L. donovani, L. major and L. mexicana. The analysis revealed 64 metabolites with confirmed identity differing 3-fold or more between the cell extracts of species, with 161 putatively identified metabolites differing similarly. Analysis of the media from cultures revealed an at least 3-fold difference in use or excretion of 43 metabolites of confirmed identity and 87 putatively identified metabolites that differed to a similar extent. Strikingly large differences were detected in their extent of amino acid use and metabolism, especially for tryptophan, aspartate, arginine and proline. Major pathways of tryptophan and arginine catabolism were shown to be to indole-3-lactate and arginic acid, respectively, which were excreted. The data presented provide clear evidence on the value of global metabolomic analyses in detecting species-specific metabolic features, thus application of this technology should be a major contributor to gaining greater understanding of how pathogens are adapted to infecting their hosts.

  20. Direction of Effects in Multiple Linear Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Wolfgang; von Eye, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies analyzed asymmetric properties of the Pearson correlation coefficient using higher than second order moments. These asymmetric properties can be used to determine the direction of dependence in a linear regression setting (i.e., establish which of two variables is more likely to be on the outcome side) within the framework of cross-sectional observational data. Extant approaches are restricted to the bivariate regression case. The present contribution extends the direction of dependence methodology to a multiple linear regression setting by analyzing distributional properties of residuals of competing multiple regression models. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the third central moments of estimated regression residuals can be used to decide upon direction of effects. In addition, three different approaches for statistical inference are discussed: a combined D'Agostino normality test, a skewness difference test, and a bootstrap difference test. Type I error and power of the procedures are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations, and an empirical example is provided for illustrative purposes. In the discussion, issues concerning the quality of psychological data, possible extensions of the proposed methods to the fourth central moment of regression residuals, and potential applications are addressed.

  1. Federated or cached searches: providing expected performance from multiple invasive species databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Jim; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Simpson, Annie; Newman, Gregory J.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

    2011-01-01

    Invasive species are a universal global problem, but the information to identify them, manage them, and prevent invasions is stored around the globe in a variety of formats. The Global Invasive Species Information Network is a consortium of organizations working toward providing seamless access to these disparate databases via the Internet. A distributed network of databases can be created using the Internet and a standard web service protocol. There are two options to provide this integration. First, federated searches are being proposed to allow users to search “deep” web documents such as databases for invasive species. A second method is to create a cache of data from the databases for searching. We compare these two methods, and show that federated searches will not provide the performance and flexibility required from users and a central cache of the datum are required to improve performance.

  2. Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L; Treglia, Michael L; Grant, William E; Smeins, Fred E; Rogers, William E

    2015-04-21

    Concerns regarding the long-term viability of threatened and endangered plant species are increasingly warranted given the potential impacts of climate change and habitat fragmentation on unstable and isolated populations. Orchidaceae is the largest and most diverse family of flowering plants, but it is currently facing unprecedented risks of extinction. Despite substantial conservation emphasis on rare orchids, populations continue to decline. Spiranthes parksii (Navasota ladies' tresses) is a federally and state-listed endangered terrestrial orchid endemic to central Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor and determine suitable habitat for future surveys and targeted conservation efforts. We analysed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions and landscape features to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of occurrence of S. parksii using boosted regression trees. Our model classified 97 % of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, and indicated that probability of existence was correlated with climatic conditions and landscape features. The most influential variables were mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, mean annual minimum temperature and mean annual maximum temperature. The most likely suitable range for S. parksii was the eastern portions of Leon and Madison Counties, the southern portion of Brazos County, a portion of northern Grimes County and along the borders between Burleson and Washington Counties. Our model can assist in the development of an integrated conservation strategy through: (i) focussing future survey and research efforts on areas with a high likelihood of occurrence, (ii) aiding in selection of areas for conservation and restoration and (iii) framing future research questions including those necessary for predicting responses to climate change. Our model could also

  3. An extensive comparison of species-abundance distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Elita; Harris, David J; Xiao, Xiao; White, Ethan P

    2016-01-01

    A number of different models have been proposed as descriptions of the species-abundance distribution (SAD). Most evaluations of these models use only one or two models, focus on only a single ecosystem or taxonomic group, or fail to use appropriate statistical methods. We use likelihood and AIC to compare the fit of four of the most widely used models to data on over 16,000 communities from a diverse array of taxonomic groups and ecosystems. Across all datasets combined the log-series, Poisson lognormal, and negative binomial all yield similar overall fits to the data. Therefore, when correcting for differences in the number of parameters the log-series generally provides the best fit to data. Within individual datasets some other distributions performed nearly as well as the log-series even after correcting for the number of parameters. The Zipf distribution is generally a poor characterization of the SAD.

  4. An extensive comparison of species-abundance distribution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elita Baldridge

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A number of different models have been proposed as descriptions of the species-abundance distribution (SAD. Most evaluations of these models use only one or two models, focus on only a single ecosystem or taxonomic group, or fail to use appropriate statistical methods. We use likelihood and AIC to compare the fit of four of the most widely used models to data on over 16,000 communities from a diverse array of taxonomic groups and ecosystems. Across all datasets combined the log-series, Poisson lognormal, and negative binomial all yield similar overall fits to the data. Therefore, when correcting for differences in the number of parameters the log-series generally provides the best fit to data. Within individual datasets some other distributions performed nearly as well as the log-series even after correcting for the number of parameters. The Zipf distribution is generally a poor characterization of the SAD.

  5. Multiple interkingdom horizontal gene transfers in Pyrenophora and closely related species and their contributions to phytopathogenic lifestyles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao-Fa Sun

    Full Text Available Many studies have reported horizontal gene transfer (HGT events from eukaryotes, especially fungi. However, only a few investigations summarized multiple interkingdom HGTs involving important phytopathogenic species of Pyrenophora and few have investigated the genetic contributions of HGTs to fungi. We investigated HGT events in P. teres and P. tritici-repentis and discovered that both species harbored 14 HGT genes derived from bacteria and plants, including 12 HGT genes that occurred in both species. One gene coding a leucine-rich repeat protein was present in both species of Pyrenophora and it may have been transferred from a host plant. The transfer of genes from a host plant to pathogenic fungi has been reported rarely and we discovered the first evidence for this transfer in phytopathogenic Pyrenophora. Two HGTs in Pyrenophora underwent subsequent duplications. Some HGT genes had homologs in a few other fungi, indicating relatively ancient transfer events. Functional analyses indicated that half of the HGT genes encoded extracellular proteins and these may have facilitated the infection of plants by Pyrenophora via interference with plant defense-response and the degradation of plant cell walls. Some other HGT genes appeared to participate in carbohydrate metabolism. Together, these functions implied that HGTs may have led to highly efficient mechanisms of infection as well as the utilization of host carbohydrates. Evolutionary analyses indicated that HGT genes experienced amelioration, purifying selection, and accelerated evolution. These appeared to constitute adaptations to the background genome of the recipient. The discovery of multiple interkingdom HGTs in Pyrenophora, their significance to infection, and their adaptive evolution, provided valuable insights into the evolutionary significance of interkingdom HGTs from multiple donors.

  6. Forest fragmentation reduces parasitism via species loss at multiple trophic levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenoglio, Maria Silvina; Srivastava, Diane; Valladares, Graciela; Cagnolo, Luciano; Salvo, Adriana

    2012-11-01

    Although there is accumulating evidence from artificially assembled communities that reductions of species diversity result in diminished ecosystem functioning, it is not yet clear how real-world changes in diversity affect the flow of energy between trophic levels in multi-trophic contexts. In central Argentina, forest fragmentation has led to species loss of plants, herbivore and parasitoid insects, decline in trophic processes (herbivory and parasitism), and food web contraction. Here we examine if and how loss of parasitoid species following fragmentation causes decreased parasitism rates, by analyzing food webs of leaf miners and parasitoids from 19 forest fragments of decreasing size. We asked three questions: Do reductions in parasitoid richness following fragmentation directly or indirectly affect parasitism rate? Are changes in community parasitism rate driven by changes in the parasitism rate of individual leaf miner species, or changes in leaf miner composition, or both? Which traits of species determine the effects of food web change on parasitism rates? We found that habitat loss initiated a bottom-up cascade of extinctions from plants to leaf miners to parasitoids, with reductions in parasitoid richness ultimately driving decreases in parasitism rates. This relationship between parasitoid richness and parasitism depended on changes in the relative abundance (but not occurrence) of leaf miners such that parasitoid-rich fragments were dominated by leaf miner species that supported high rates of parasitism. Surprisingly, we found that only a small subset of species in the food web could account for much of the increase in parasitism with parasitoid richness: lepidopteran miners that attained exceptionally high densities in some fragments and their largely specialist parasitoids. How specialized a parasitoid is, and the relative abundance of leaf miners, had important effects on the diversity-parasitism rate relationship, but not other leaf miner traits

  7. Detection of multiple species of human Paragonimus from Mexico using morphological data and molecular barcodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Caballero, J; Oceguera-Figueroa, A; León-Règagnon, V

    2013-11-01

    Paragonimus mexicanus is the causal agent of human paragonimiasis in several countries of the Americas. It is considered to be the only species of the genus present in Mexico, where it is responsible for human infection. Through the investigation of P. mexicanus specimens from several places throughout Mexico, we provide morphological, molecular and geographical evidence that strongly suggests the presence of at least three species from this genus in Mexico. These results raise questions regarding the diagnosis, treatment, prophylaxis and control of human paragonimiasis in Mexico. We also provide a brief discussion regarding biodiversity inventories and the convenience of providing molecular and morphological information in biodiversity studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Interaction of multiple biomimetic antimicrobial polymers with model bacterial membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baul, Upayan, E-mail: upayanb@imsc.res.in; Vemparala, Satyavani, E-mail: vani@imsc.res.in [The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, C.I.T. Campus, Taramani, Chennai 600113 (India); Kuroda, Kenichi, E-mail: kkuroda@umich.edu [Department of Biologic and Materials Sciences, University of Michigan School of Dentistry, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States)

    2014-08-28

    Using atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, interaction of multiple synthetic random copolymers based on methacrylates on prototypical bacterial membranes is investigated. The simulations show that the cationic polymers form a micellar aggregate in water phase and the aggregate, when interacting with the bacterial membrane, induces clustering of oppositely charged anionic lipid molecules to form clusters and enhances ordering of lipid chains. The model bacterial membrane, consequently, develops lateral inhomogeneity in membrane thickness profile compared to polymer-free system. The individual polymers in the aggregate are released into the bacterial membrane in a phased manner and the simulations suggest that the most probable location of the partitioned polymers is near the 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-phosphatidylglycerol (POPG) clusters. The partitioned polymers preferentially adopt facially amphiphilic conformations at lipid-water interface, despite lacking intrinsic secondary structures such as α-helix or β-sheet found in naturally occurring antimicrobial peptides.

  9. The intergenerational multiple deficit model and the case of dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bergen, Elsje; van der Leij, Aryan; de Jong, Peter F.

    2014-01-01

    Which children go on to develop dyslexia? Since dyslexia has a multifactorial etiology, this question can be restated as: what are the factors that put children at high risk for developing dyslexia? It is argued that a useful theoretical framework to address this question is Pennington’s (2006) multiple deficit model (MDM). This model replaces models that attribute dyslexia to a single underlying cause. Subsequently, the generalist genes hypothesis for learning (dis)abilities (Plomin and Kovas, 2005) is described and integrated with the MDM. Next, findings are presented from a longitudinal study with children at family risk for dyslexia. Such studies can contribute to testing and specifying the MDM. In this study, risk factors at both the child and family level were investigated. This led to the proposed intergenerational MDM, in which both parents confer liability via intertwined genetic and environmental pathways. Future scientific directions are discussed to investigate parent-offspring resemblance and transmission patterns, which will shed new light on disorder etiology. PMID:24920944

  10. A diagnostic tree model for polytomous responses with multiple strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wenchao

    2018-04-23

    Constructed-response items have been shown to be appropriate for cognitively diagnostic assessments because students' problem-solving procedures can be observed, providing direct evidence for making inferences about their proficiency. However, multiple strategies used by students make item scoring and psychometric analyses challenging. This study introduces the so-called two-digit scoring scheme into diagnostic assessments to record both students' partial credits and their strategies. This study also proposes a diagnostic tree model (DTM) by integrating the cognitive diagnosis models with the tree model to analyse the items scored using the two-digit rubrics. Both convergent and divergent tree structures are considered to accommodate various scoring rules. The MMLE/EM algorithm is used for item parameter estimation of the DTM, and has been shown to provide good parameter recovery under varied conditions in a simulation study. A set of data from TIMSS 2007 mathematics assessment is analysed to illustrate the use of the two-digit scoring scheme and the DTM. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  11. The intergenerational multiple deficit model and the case of dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bergen, Elsje; van der Leij, Aryan; de Jong, Peter F

    2014-01-01

    Which children go on to develop dyslexia? Since dyslexia has a multifactorial etiology, this question can be restated as: what are the factors that put children at high risk for developing dyslexia? It is argued that a useful theoretical framework to address this question is Pennington's (2006) multiple deficit model (MDM). This model replaces models that attribute dyslexia to a single underlying cause. Subsequently, the generalist genes hypothesis for learning (dis)abilities (Plomin and Kovas, 2005) is described and integrated with the MDM. Next, findings are presented from a longitudinal study with children at family risk for dyslexia. Such studies can contribute to testing and specifying the MDM. In this study, risk factors at both the child and family level were investigated. This led to the proposed intergenerational MDM, in which both parents confer liability via intertwined genetic and environmental pathways. Future scientific directions are discussed to investigate parent-offspring resemblance and transmission patterns, which will shed new light on disorder etiology.

  12. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  13. The intergenerational multiple deficit model and the case of dyslexia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsje evan Bergen

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Which children go on to develop dyslexia? Since dyslexia has a multifactorial aetiology, this question can be restated as: What are the factors that put children at high risk for developing dyslexia? It is argued that a useful theoretical framework to address this question is Pennington’s (2006 multiple deficit model (MDM. This model replaces models that attribute dyslexia to a single underlying cause. Subsequently, the generalist genes hypothesis for learning (disabilities (Plomin & Kovas, 2005 is described and integrated with the MDM. Finally, findings are presented from a longitudinal study with children at family risk for dyslexia. Such studies can contribute to testing and specifying the MDM. In this study, risk factors at both the child and family level were investigated. This led to the proposed intergenerational MDM, in which both parents confer liability via intertwined genetic and environmental pathways. Future scientific directions are discussed to investigate parent-offspring resemblance and transmission patterns, which will shed new light on disorder aetiology.

  14. Modeling Pan Evaporation for Kuwait by Multiple Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almedeij, Jaber

    2012-01-01

    Evaporation is an important parameter for many projects related to hydrology and water resources systems. This paper constitutes the first study conducted in Kuwait to obtain empirical relations for the estimation of daily and monthly pan evaporation as functions of available meteorological data of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The data used here for the modeling are daily measurements of substantial continuity coverage, within a period of 17 years between January 1993 and December 2009, which can be considered representative of the desert climate of the urban zone of the country. Multiple linear regression technique is used with a procedure of variable selection for fitting the best model forms. The correlations of evaporation with temperature and relative humidity are also transformed in order to linearize the existing curvilinear patterns of the data by using power and exponential functions, respectively. The evaporation models suggested with the best variable combinations were shown to produce results that are in a reasonable agreement with observation values. PMID:23226984

  15. An Advanced N -body Model for Interacting Multiple Stellar Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brož, Miroslav [Astronomical Institute of the Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, V Holešovičkách 2, CZ-18000 Praha 8 (Czech Republic)

    2017-06-01

    We construct an advanced model for interacting multiple stellar systems in which we compute all trajectories with a numerical N -body integrator, namely the Bulirsch–Stoer from the SWIFT package. We can then derive various observables: astrometric positions, radial velocities, minima timings (TTVs), eclipse durations, interferometric visibilities, closure phases, synthetic spectra, spectral energy distribution, and even complete light curves. We use a modified version of the Wilson–Devinney code for the latter, in which the instantaneous true phase and inclination of the eclipsing binary are governed by the N -body integration. If all of these types of observations are at one’s disposal, a joint χ {sup 2} metric and an optimization algorithm (a simplex or simulated annealing) allow one to search for a global minimum and construct very robust models of stellar systems. At the same time, our N -body model is free from artifacts that may arise if mutual gravitational interactions among all components are not self-consistently accounted for. Finally, we present a number of examples showing dynamical effects that can be studied with our code and we discuss how systematic errors may affect the results (and how to prevent this from happening).

  16. Forward selection for multiple resistance across the non-selective glyphosate, glufosinate and oxyfluorfen herbicides in Lolium weed species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Pablo; Alcántara, Ricardo; Osuna, María D; Vila-Aiub, Martin M; Prado, Rafael De

    2017-05-01

    In the Mediterranean area, Lolium species have evolved resistance to glyphosate after decades of continual use without other alternative chemicals in perennial crops (olive, citrus and vineyards). In recent years, oxyfluorfen alone or mixed with glyphosate and glufosinate has been introduced as a chemical option to control dicot and grass weeds. Dose-response studies confirmed that three glyphosate-resistant Lolium weed species (L. rigidum, L. perenne, L. multiflorum) collected from perennial crops in the Iberian Peninsula have also evolved resistance to glufosinate and oxyfluorfen herbicides, despite their recent introduction. Based on the LD 50 resistance parameter, the resistance factor was similar among Lolium species and ranged from 14- to 21-fold and from ten- to 12-fold for oxyfluorfen and glufosinate respectively. Similarly, about 14-fold resistance to both oxyfluorfen and glufosinate was estimated on average for the three Lolium species when growth reduction (GR 50 ) was assessed. This study identified oxyfluorfen resistance in a grass species for the first time. A major threat to sustainability of perennial crops in the Iberian Peninsula is evident, as multiple resistance to non-selective glyphosate, glufosinate and oxyfluorfen herbicides has evolved in L. rigidum, L. perenne and L. multiflorum weeds. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Apical dominance and apical control in multiple flushing of temperate woody species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Cline; C. Harrington

    2007-01-01

    In young plants of many woody species, the first flush of growth in the spring may be followed by one or more flushes of the terminal shoot if growing conditions are favorable. The occurrence of these additional flushes may significantly affect crown form and structure. Apical dominance (AD) and apical control (AC) are thought to be important control mechanisms in this...

  18. Feeding and multiplication of three cereal aphid species and their effect on yield of winter wheat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vereijken, P.H.

    1979-01-01

    Sitobion avenae F. multiplies at a higher rate on winter wheat than Rhopalosiphum padi L. and Metopolophium dirhodum Wlk. Unlike the other two species S. avenae prefers the ear, where it multiplies twice as quickly as on the flag leaf. Infestation of the ear rather than of the leaves leads to

  19. H2DB: a heritability database across multiple species by annotating trait-associated genomic loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminuma, Eli; Fujisawa, Takatomo; Tanizawa, Yasuhiro; Sakamoto, Naoko; Kurata, Nori; Shimizu, Tokurou; Nakamura, Yasukazu

    2013-01-01

    H2DB (http://tga.nig.ac.jp/h2db/), an annotation database of genetic heritability estimates for humans and other species, has been developed as a knowledge database to connect trait-associated genomic loci. Heritability estimates have been investigated for individual species, particularly in human twin studies and plant/animal breeding studies. However, there appears to be no comprehensive heritability database for both humans and other species. Here, we introduce an annotation database for genetic heritabilities of various species that was annotated by manually curating online public resources in PUBMED abstracts and journal contents. The proposed heritability database contains attribute information for trait descriptions, experimental conditions, trait-associated genomic loci and broad- and narrow-sense heritability specifications. Annotated trait-associated genomic loci, for which most are single-nucleotide polymorphisms derived from genome-wide association studies, may be valuable resources for experimental scientists. In addition, we assigned phenotype ontologies to the annotated traits for the purposes of discussing heritability distributions based on phenotypic classifications.

  20. No Inbreeding depression for low temperature developmental acclimation across multiple drosophila species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Loeschcke, Volker; Bilde, Trine

    2011-01-01

    Populations are from time to time exposed to stressful temperatures. Their thermal resistance levels are determined by inherent and plastic mechanisms, which are both likely to be under selection in natural populations. Previous studies on Drosophila species have shown that inherent resistance...

  1. Multiple Phytophthora species associated with a single riparian ecosystem in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Jan H; Slippers, Bernard; Wingfield, Michael J; Gryzenhout, Marieka

    2015-01-01

    The diversity of Phytophthora spp. in rivers and riparian ecosystems has received considerable international attention, although little such research has been conducted in South Africa. This study determined the diversity of Phytophthora spp. within a single river in Gauteng province of South Africa. Samples were collected over 1 y including biweekly river baiting with Rhododendron indicum leaves. Phytophthora isolates were identified with phylogenetic analyses of sequences for the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of the ribosomal DNA and the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase c subunit I (coxI) gene. Eight Phytophthora spp. were identified, including a new taxon, P. taxon Sisulu-river, and two hybrid species from Cooke's ITS clade 6. Of these, species from Clade 6 were the most abundant, including P. chlamydospora and P. lacustris. Species residing in Clade 2 also were encountered, including P. multivora, P. plurivora and P. citrophthora. The detection of eight species in this investigation of Phytophthora diversity in a single riparian river ecosystem in northern South Africa adds to the known diversity of this genus in South Africa and globally. © 2015 by The Mycological Society of America.

  2. Abundance modelling of invasive and indigenous Culicoides species in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Els Ducheyne

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a novel methodology applied in Spain to model spatial abundance patterns of potential vectors of disease at a medium spatial resolution of 5 x 5 km using a countrywide database with abundance data for five Culicoides species, random regression Forest modelling and a spatial dataset of ground measured and remotely sensed eco-climatic and environmental predictor variables. First the probability of occurrence was computed. In a second step a direct regression between the probability of occurrence and trap abundance was established to verify the linearity of the relationship. Finally the probability of occurrence was used in combination with the set of predictor variables to model abundance. In each case the variable importance of the predictors was used to biologically interpret results and to compare both model outputs, and model performance was assessed using four different accuracy measures. Results are shown for C. imicola, C. newsteadii, C. pulicaris group, C. punctatus and C. obsoletus group. In each case the probability of occurrence is a good predictor of abundance at the used spatial resolution of 5 x 5 km. In addition, the C. imicola and C. obsoletus group are highly driven by summer rainfall. The spatial pattern is inverse between the two species, indicating that the lower and upper thresholds are different. C. pulicaris group is mainly driven by temperature. The patterns for C. newsteadii and C. punctatus are less clear. It is concluded that the proposed methodology can be used as an input to transmission-infection-recovery (TIR models and R0 models. The methodology will become available to the general public as part of the VECMAPTM software.

  3. The predictive performance and stability of six species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren-Yan Duan

    Full Text Available Predicting species' potential geographical range by species distribution models (SDMs is central to understand their ecological requirements. However, the effects of using different modeling techniques need further investigation. In order to improve the prediction effect, we need to assess the predictive performance and stability of different SDMs.We collected the distribution data of five common tree species (Pinus massoniana, Betula platyphylla, Quercus wutaishanica, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis and simulated their potential distribution area using 13 environmental variables and six widely used SDMs: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Each model run was repeated 100 times (trials. We compared the predictive performance by testing the consistency between observations and simulated distributions and assessed the stability by the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the 99% confidence interval of Kappa and AUC values.The mean values of AUC and Kappa from MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM trials were similar and significantly higher than those from BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05, while the associated standard deviations and coefficients of variation were larger for BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05, and the 99% confidence intervals for AUC and Kappa values were narrower for MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Compared to BIOCLIM and DOMAIN, other SDMs (MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM had higher prediction accuracy, smaller confidence intervals, and were more stable and less affected by the random variable (randomly selected pseudo-absence points.According to the prediction performance and stability of SDMs, we can divide these six SDMs into two categories: a high performance and stability group including MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM, and a low performance and stability group consisting of BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN. We highlight that choosing appropriate SDMs to address a specific problem is an important part of the modeling process.

  4. Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda M; Evangelista, Paul H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Young, Nicholas E; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Talbert, Colin; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ryan

    2016-10-11

    Early detection of invasive plant species is vital for the management of natural resources and protection of ecosystem processes. The use of satellite remote sensing for mapping the distribution of invasive plants is becoming more common, however conventional imaging software and classification methods have been shown to be unreliable. In this study, we test and evaluate the use of five species distribution model techniques fit with satellite remote sensing data to map invasive tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) along the Arkansas River in Southeastern Colorado. The models tested included boosted regression trees (BRT), Random Forest (RF), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized linear model (GLM), and Maxent. These analyses were conducted using a newly developed software package called the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). All models were trained with 499 presence points, 10,000 pseudo-absence points, and predictor variables acquired from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor over an eight-month period to distinguish tamarisk from native riparian vegetation using detection of phenological differences. From the Landsat scenes, we used individual bands and calculated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and tasseled capped transformations. All five models identified current tamarisk distribution on the landscape successfully based on threshold independent and threshold dependent evaluation metrics with independent location data. To account for model specific differences, we produced an ensemble of all five models with map output highlighting areas of agreement and areas of uncertainty. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of species distribution models in analyzing remotely sensed data and the utility of ensemble mapping, and showcase the capability of SAHM in pre-processing and executing multiple complex models.

  5. Integrating remote sensing with species distribution models; Mapping tamarisk invasions using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda M.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Talbert, Colin; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Early detection of invasive plant species is vital for the management of natural resources and protection of ecosystem processes. The use of satellite remote sensing for mapping the distribution of invasive plants is becoming more common, however conventional imaging software and classification methods have been shown to be unreliable. In this study, we test and evaluate the use of five species distribution model techniques fit with satellite remote sensing data to map invasive tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) along the Arkansas River in Southeastern Colorado. The models tested included boosted regression trees (BRT), Random Forest (RF), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized linear model (GLM), and Maxent. These analyses were conducted using a newly developed software package called the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). All models were trained with 499 presence points, 10,000 pseudo-absence points, and predictor variables acquired from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor over an eight-month period to distinguish tamarisk from native riparian vegetation using detection of phenological differences. From the Landsat scenes, we used individual bands and calculated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and tasseled capped transformations. All five models identified current tamarisk distribution on the landscape successfully based on threshold independent and threshold dependent evaluation metrics with independent location data. To account for model specific differences, we produced an ensemble of all five models with map output highlighting areas of agreement and areas of uncertainty. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of species distribution models in analyzing remotely sensed data and the utility of ensemble mapping, and showcase the capability of SAHM in pre-processing and executing multiple complex models.

  6. Shared mental models of integrated care: aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross

    2012-01-01

    Health service organizations and professionals are under increasing pressure to work together to deliver integrated patient care. A common understanding of integration strategies may facilitate the delivery of integrated care across inter-organizational and inter-professional boundaries. This paper aims to build a framework for exploring and potentially aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives of systems integration. The authors draw from the literature on shared mental models, strategic management and change, framing, stakeholder management, and systems theory to develop a new construct, Mental Models of Integrated Care (MMIC), which consists of three types of mental models, i.e. integration-task, system-role, and integration-belief. The MMIC construct encompasses many of the known barriers and enablers to integrating care while also providing a comprehensive, theory-based framework of psychological factors that may influence inter-organizational and inter-professional relations. While the existing literature on integration focuses on optimizing structures and processes, the MMIC construct emphasizes the convergence and divergence of stakeholders' knowledge and beliefs, and how these underlying cognitions influence interactions (or lack thereof) across the continuum of care. MMIC may help to: explain what differentiates effective from ineffective integration initiatives; determine system readiness to integrate; diagnose integration problems; and develop interventions for enhancing integrative processes and ultimately the delivery of integrated care. Global interest and ongoing challenges in integrating care underline the need for research on the mental models that characterize the behaviors of actors within health systems; the proposed framework offers a starting point for applying a cognitive perspective to health systems integration.

  7. Species Coexistence in Nitrifying Chemostats: A Model of Microbial Interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Dumont

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In a previous study, the two nitrifying functions (ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB or nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB of a nitrification reactor—operated continuously over 525 days with varying inputs—were assigned using a mathematical modeling approach together with the monitoring of bacterial phylotypes. Based on these theoretical identifications, we develop here a chemostat model that does not explicitly include only the resources’ dynamics (different forms of soluble nitrogen but also explicitly takes into account microbial inter- and intra-species interactions for the four dominant phylotypes detected in the chemostat. A comparison of the models obtained with and without interactions has shown that such interactions permit the coexistence of two competing ammonium-oxidizing bacteria and two competing nitrite-oxidizing bacteria in competition for ammonium and nitrite, respectively. These interactions are analyzed and discussed.

  8. Metals and organotins in multiple bivalve species in a one-off global survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Martin Mørk; Strand, Jakob; Christensen, Jan H.

    2011-01-01

    concentrations (BACs) agreed in the Oslo-Paris convention (OSPAR) for the North Sea, and at most harbours the concentrations were orders of magnitude above BACs. The lowest concentrations of Cd and Pb measured here suggest that the BACs should be lower in a worldwide context. The sources of metals were......The Galathea 3 expedition circumnavigated the globe in 2006-2007 and collected marine samples from six continents. Bivalves were collected from harbours, other impacted locations and reference sites, and samples from 57 sites were analyzed for metals and 47 for organotins, to assess current...... contamination levels on a global scale. Metal concentrations in nine bivalve species were normalised to the Mytilidae family using conversion factors based on cosampled species and literature bioconcentration factors. The lowest metal and tributyltin concentrations were below background assessment...

  9. Tackling Biocomplexity with Meta-models for Species Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J. Nyhus

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe results of a multi-year effort to strengthen consideration of the human dimension into endangered species risk assessments and to strengthen research capacity to understand biodiversity risk assessment in the context of coupled human-natural systems. A core group of social and biological scientists have worked with a network of more than 50 individuals from four countries to develop a conceptual framework illustrating how human-mediated processes influence biological systems and to develop tools to gather, translate, and incorporate these data into existing simulation models. A central theme of our research focused on (1 the difficulties often encountered in identifying and securing diverse bodies of expertise and information that is necessary to adequately address complex species conservation issues; and (2 the development of quantitative simulation modeling tools that could explicitly link these datasets as a way to gain deeper insight into these issues. To address these important challenges, we promote a "meta-modeling" approach where computational links are constructed between discipline-specific models already in existence. In this approach, each model can function as a powerful stand-alone program, but interaction between applications is achieved by passing data structures describing the state of the system between programs. As one example of this concept, an integrated meta-model of wildlife disease and population biology is described. A goal of this effort is to improve science-based capabilities for decision making by scientists, natural resource managers, and policy makers addressing environmental problems in general, and focusing on biodiversity risk assessment in particular.

  10. Eye Movement Abnormalities in Multiple Sclerosis: Pathogenesis, Modeling, and Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Serra

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Multiple sclerosis (MS commonly causes eye movement abnormalities that may have a significant impact on patients’ disability. Inflammatory demyelinating lesions, especially occurring in the posterior fossa, result in a wide range of disorders, spanning from acquired pendular nystagmus (APN to internuclear ophthalmoplegia (INO, among the most common. As the control of eye movements is well understood in terms of anatomical substrate and underlying physiological network, studying ocular motor abnormalities in MS provides a unique opportunity to gain insights into mechanisms of disease. Quantitative measurement and modeling of eye movement disorders, such as INO, may lead to a better understanding of common symptoms encountered in MS, such as Uhthoff’s phenomenon and fatigue. In turn, the pathophysiology of a range of eye movement abnormalities, such as APN, has been clarified based on correlation of experimental model with lesion localization by neuroimaging in MS. Eye movement disorders have the potential of being utilized as structural and functional biomarkers of early cognitive deficit, and possibly help in assessing disease status and progression, and to serve as platform and functional outcome to test novel therapeutic agents for MS. Knowledge of neuropharmacology applied to eye movement dysfunction has guided testing and use of a number of pharmacological agents to treat some eye movement disorders found in MS, such as APN and other forms of central nystagmus.

  11. The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km2 to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally

  12. Cryptosporidium rubeyi n. sp. (Apicomplexa: Cryptosporidiidae in multiple Spermophilus ground squirrel species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xunde Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Previously we reported the unique Cryptosporidium sp. “c” genotype (e.g., Sbey03c, Sbey05c, Sbld05c, Sltl05c from three species of Spermophilus ground squirrel (Spermophilus beecheyi, Spermophilus beldingi, Spermophilus lateralis located throughout California, USA. This follow-up work characterizes the morphology and animal infectivity of this novel genotype as the final step in proposing it as a new species of Cryptosporidium. Analysis of sequences of 18S rRNA, actin, and HSP70 genes of additional Cryptosporidium isolates from recently sampled California ground squirrels (S. beecheyi confirms the presence of the unique Sbey-c genotype in S. beecheyi. Phylogenetic and BLAST analysis indicates that the c-genotype in Spermophilus ground squirrels is distinct from Cryptosporidium species/genotypes from other host species currently available in GenBank. We propose to name this c-genotype found in Spermophilus ground squirrels as Cryptosporidium rubeyi n. sp. The mean size of C. rubeyi n. sp. oocysts is 4.67 (4.4–5.0 μm × 4.34 (4.0–5.0 μm, with a length/width index of 1.08 (n = 220. Oocysts of C. rubeyi n. sp. are not infectious to neonatal BALB/c mice and Holstein calves. GenBank accession numbers for C. rubeyi n. sp. are DQ295012, AY462233, and KM010224 for the 18S rRNA gene, KM010227 for the actin gene, and KM010229 for the HSP70 gene.

  13. Multiple mechanism confers natural tolerance of three lilyturf species to glyphosate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chanjuan; Xie, Hongjie; Chen, Shiguo; Valverde, Bernal E; Qiang, Sheng

    2016-02-01

    A combination of unique EPSPS structure and increased gene copy number and expression contribute to natural glyphosate tolerance in three lilyturf species. A few plants are naturally tolerant to glyphosate, the most widely used non-selective herbicide worldwide. Here, the basis for natural tolerance to glyphosate in three lilyturf species, Ophiopogon japonicus (OJ), Liriope spicata (LS), and Liriope platyphylla (LP), is characterized. These species tolerate glyphosate at about five times the commercially recommended field dose. They share three unique amino acids in their 5-enolpyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase (EPSPS) that affect glyphosate binding. These correspond to Asp71Met, Ala112Ile, and Val201Met amino acid variations compared to 231 other published plant EPSPS amino acid sequences. There was also a common deletion at 91 of a highly conserved glutamic acid. Glyphosate-treated lilyturf plants accumulated little shikimic acid but had significantly higher levels of EPSPS mRNA than initially expressed in the control. The IC50 of LsEPSPS was 14.0 µM compared to the 5.1 µM of Arabidopsis thaliana. The higher K m and K i values of LsEPSPS kinetics showed that LsEPSPS had lower substrate binding affinity to glyphosate. Overexpression of LsEPSPS in the recombinant E. coli BL21 (DE3) strain enhanced its tolerance to glyphosate. Both OJ and LS had two copies of the EPSPS gene, while LP had three copies. Therefore, a combination of unique EPSPS structure and increased gene copy number and expression contribute to natural glyphosate tolerance in the three lilyturf species.

  14. Multiple steroid and thyroid hormones detected in baleen from eight whale species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Kathleen E; Lysiak, Nadine S; Robbins, Jooke; Moore, Michael J; Seton, Rosemary E; Torres, Leigh; Buck, C Loren

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated that some hormones are present in baleen powder from bowhead ( Balaena mysticetus) and North Atlantic right ( Eubalaena glacialis ) whales. To test the potential generalizability of this technique for studies of stress and reproduction in large whales, we sought to determine whether all major classes of steroid and thyroid hormones are detectable in baleen, and whether these hormones are detectable in other mysticetes. Powdered baleen samples were recovered from single specimens of North Atlantic right, bowhead, blue ( Balaenoptera [ B .] musculus ), sei ( B. borealis ), minke ( B. acutorostrata ), fin ( B. physalu s), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ) and gray ( Eschrichtius robustus ) whales. Hormones were extracted with a methanol vortex method, after which we tested all species with commercial enzyme immunoassays (EIAs, Arbor Assays) for progesterone, testosterone, 17β-estradiol, cortisol, corticosterone, aldosterone, thyroxine and tri-iodothyronine, representing a wide array of steroid and thyroid hormones of interest for whale physiology research. In total, 64 parallelism tests (8 species × 8 hormones) were evaluated to verify good binding affinity of the assay antibodies to hormones in baleen. We also tested assay accuracy, although available sample volume limited this test to progesterone, testosterone and cortisol. All tested hormones were detectable in baleen powder of all species, and all assays passed parallelism and accuracy tests. Although only single individuals were tested, the consistent detectability of all hormones in all species indicates that baleen hormone analysis is likely applicable to a broad range of mysticetes, and that the EIA kits tested here perform well with baleen extract. Quantification of hormones in baleen may be a suitable technique with which to explore questions that have historically been difficult to address in large whales, including pregnancy and inter-calving interval, age of sexual

  15. The origin of multiple clones in the parthenogenetic lizard species Darevskia rostombekowi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryskov, Alexey P; Osipov, Fedor A; Omelchenko, Andrey V; Semyenova, Seraphima K; Girnyk, Anastasiya E; Korchagin, Vitaly I; Vergun, Andrey A; Murphy, Robert W

    2017-01-01

    The all-female Caucasian rock lizard Darevskia rostombekowi and other unisexual species of this genus reproduce normally via true parthenogenesis. Typically, diploid parthenogenetic reptiles exhibit some amount of clonal diversity. However, allozyme data from D. rostombekowi have suggested that this species consists of a single clone. Herein, we test this hypothesis by evaluating variation at three variable microsatellite loci for 42 specimens of D. rostombekowi from four populations in Armenia. Analyses based on single nucleotide polymorphisms of each locus reveal five genotypes or presumptive clones in this species. All individuals are heterozygous at the loci. The major clone occurs in 24 individuals and involves three populations. Four rare clones involve one or several individuals from one or two populations. Most variation owes to parent-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms, which occur as heterozygotes. This result fails to reject the hypothesis of a single hybridization founder event that resulted in the initial formation of one major clone. The other clones appear to have originated via post-formation microsatellite mutations of the major clone.

  16. DFT models of molecular species in carbonate molten salts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carper, W Robert; Wahlbeck, Phillip G; Griffiths, Trevor R

    2012-05-10

    Raman spectra of high temperature carbonate melts are correlated with carbonate species modeled at 923 K using B3LYP/(6-311+G(2d,p)) density functional calculations. Species that are theoretically stable at 923 K include O(2-), O(2)(-), O(2)(2-), CO(3)(2-), C(2)O(6)(2-), CO(4)(-), CO(4)(2-), CO(4)(4-), CO(5)(2-), KCO(4)(-), LiCO(4)(-), KO(2)(-), LiO(2)(-), NaO(2)(-), KO(2), LiO(2), NaO(2), KCO(3)(-), LiCO(3)(-), and NaCO(3)(-). Triangular, linear, and bent forms are theoretically possible for KO(2)(-) and NaO(2)(-). Triangular and linear forms may exist for LiO(2)(-). Linear and triangular versions are theoretically possible for LiO(2)(-) and KO(2). A triangular version of NaO(2) may exist. The correlation between measured and theoretical Raman spectra indicate that monovalent cations are to be included in several of the species that produce Raman spectra.

  17. Modeling species’ realized climatic niche space and predicting their response to global warming for several western forest species with small geographic distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

    2010-01-01

    The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically based bioclimatic model of the presence-absence of species occupying small geographic distributions in western North America. The species assessed were subalpine larch (Larix lyallii), smooth Arizona cypress (Cupressus arizonica ssp. glabra...

  18. Molecular Diversity of Anthracnose Pathogen Populations Associated with UK Strawberry Production Suggests Multiple Introductions of Three Different Colletotrichum Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baroncelli, Riccardo; Zapparata, Antonio; Sarrocco, Sabrina; Sukno, Serenella A; Lane, Charles R; Thon, Michael R; Vannacci, Giovanni; Holub, Eric; Sreenivasaprasad, Surapareddy

    2015-01-01

    Fragaria × ananassa (common name: strawberry) is a globally cultivated hybrid species belonging to Rosaceae family. Colletotrichum acutatum sensu lato (s.l.) is considered to be the second most economically important pathogen worldwide affecting strawberries. A collection of 148 Colletotrichum spp. isolates including 67 C. acutatum s.l. isolates associated with the phytosanitary history of UK strawberry production were used to characterize multi-locus genetic variation of this pathogen in the UK, relative to additional reference isolates that represent a worldwide sampling of the diversity of the fungus. The evidence indicates that three different species C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae are associated with strawberry production in the UK, which correspond to previously designated genetic groups A2, A4 and A3, respectively. Among these species, 12 distinct haplotypes were identified suggesting multiple introductions into the country. A subset of isolates was also used to compare aggressiveness in causing disease on strawberry plants and fruits. Isolates belonging to C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae representative of the UK anthracnose pathogen populations showed variation in their aggressiveness. Among the three species, C. nymphaeae and C. fioriniae appeared to be more aggressive compared to C. godetiae. This study highlights the genetic and pathogenic heterogeneity of the C. acutatum s.l. populations introduced into the UK linked to strawberry production.

  19. Molecular Diversity of Anthracnose Pathogen Populations Associated with UK Strawberry Production Suggests Multiple Introductions of Three Different Colletotrichum Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Baroncelli

    Full Text Available Fragaria × ananassa (common name: strawberry is a globally cultivated hybrid species belonging to Rosaceae family. Colletotrichum acutatum sensu lato (s.l. is considered to be the second most economically important pathogen worldwide affecting strawberries. A collection of 148 Colletotrichum spp. isolates including 67 C. acutatum s.l. isolates associated with the phytosanitary history of UK strawberry production were used to characterize multi-locus genetic variation of this pathogen in the UK, relative to additional reference isolates that represent a worldwide sampling of the diversity of the fungus. The evidence indicates that three different species C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae are associated with strawberry production in the UK, which correspond to previously designated genetic groups A2, A4 and A3, respectively. Among these species, 12 distinct haplotypes were identified suggesting multiple introductions into the country. A subset of isolates was also used to compare aggressiveness in causing disease on strawberry plants and fruits. Isolates belonging to C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae representative of the UK anthracnose pathogen populations showed variation in their aggressiveness. Among the three species, C. nymphaeae and C. fioriniae appeared to be more aggressive compared to C. godetiae. This study highlights the genetic and pathogenic heterogeneity of the C. acutatum s.l. populations introduced into the UK linked to strawberry production.

  20. Molecular Diversity of Anthracnose Pathogen Populations Associated with UK Strawberry Production Suggests Multiple Introductions of Three Different Colletotrichum Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baroncelli, Riccardo; Zapparata, Antonio; Sarrocco, Sabrina; Sukno, Serenella A.; Lane, Charles R.; Thon, Michael R.; Vannacci, Giovanni; Holub, Eric; Sreenivasaprasad, Surapareddy

    2015-01-01

    Fragaria × ananassa (common name: strawberry) is a globally cultivated hybrid species belonging to Rosaceae family. Colletotrichum acutatum sensu lato (s.l.) is considered to be the second most economically important pathogen worldwide affecting strawberries. A collection of 148 Colletotrichum spp. isolates including 67 C. acutatum s.l. isolates associated with the phytosanitary history of UK strawberry production were used to characterize multi-locus genetic variation of this pathogen in the UK, relative to additional reference isolates that represent a worldwide sampling of the diversity of the fungus. The evidence indicates that three different species C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae are associated with strawberry production in the UK, which correspond to previously designated genetic groups A2, A4 and A3, respectively. Among these species, 12 distinct haplotypes were identified suggesting multiple introductions into the country. A subset of isolates was also used to compare aggressiveness in causing disease on strawberry plants and fruits. Isolates belonging to C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae representative of the UK anthracnose pathogen populations showed variation in their aggressiveness. Among the three species, C. nymphaeae and C. fioriniae appeared to be more aggressive compared to C. godetiae. This study highlights the genetic and pathogenic heterogeneity of the C. acutatum s.l. populations introduced into the UK linked to strawberry production. PMID:26086351

  1. Adaptive invasive species distribution models: A framework for modeling incipient invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Corral, Lucia; Fricke, Kent A.

    2015-01-01

    The utilization of species distribution model(s) (SDM) for approximating, explaining, and predicting changes in species’ geographic locations is increasingly promoted for proactive ecological management. Although frameworks for modeling non-invasive species distributions are relatively well developed, their counterparts for invasive species—which may not be at equilibrium within recipient environments and often exhibit rapid transformations—are lacking. Additionally, adaptive ecological management strategies address the causes and effects of biological invasions and other complex issues in social-ecological systems. We conducted a review of biological invasions, species distribution models, and adaptive practices in ecological management, and developed a framework for adaptive, niche-based, invasive species distribution model (iSDM) development and utilization. This iterative, 10-step framework promotes consistency and transparency in iSDM development, allows for changes in invasive drivers and filters, integrates mechanistic and correlative modeling techniques, balances the avoidance of type 1 and type 2 errors in predictions, encourages the linking of monitoring and management actions, and facilitates incremental improvements in models and management across space, time, and institutional boundaries. These improvements are useful for advancing coordinated invasive species modeling, management and monitoring from local scales to the regional, continental and global scales at which biological invasions occur and harm native ecosystems and economies, as well as for anticipating and responding to biological invasions under continuing global change.

  2. Liquid chromatographic determination of florfenicol in the plasma of multiple species of fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vue, C.; Schmidt, L.J.; Stehly, G.R.; Gingerich, W.H.

    2002-01-01

    A simple method was developed for determining florfenicol concentration in a small volume (250 mul) of plasma from five phylogenetically diverse species of freshwater fish. Florfenicol was isolated from the plasma matrix through C-18 solid-phase extraction and quantified by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography with UV detection. The accuracy (84-104%), precision (%RSDless than or equal to8), and sensitivity (quantitation limit <30 ng/ml) of the method indicate its usefulness for conducting pharmacokinetic studies on a variety of freshwater fish. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  3. A noninvasive, direct real-time PCR method for sex determination in multiple avian species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brubaker, Jessica L.; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K.; Chen, Yu; Jenko, Kathryn; Sprague, Daniel T.; Henry, Paula F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods to determine the sex of birds are well established and have seen few modifications since they were first introduced in the 1990s. Although these methods allowed for sex determination in species that were previously difficult to analyse, they were not conducive to high-throughput analysis because of the laboriousness of DNA extraction and gel electrophoresis. We developed a high-throughput real-time PCR-based method for analysis of sex in birds, which uses noninvasive sample collection and avoids DNA extraction and gel electrophoresis.

  4. More than the sum of the parts: forest climate response from joint species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Alan E. Gelfand; Christopher W. Woodall; Kai. Zhu

    2014-01-01

    The perceived threat of climate change is often evaluated from species distribution models that are fitted to many species independently and then added together. This approach ignores the fact that species are jointly distributed and limit one another. Species respond to the same underlying climatic variables, and the abundance of any one species can be constrained by...

  5. Evidence from Multiple Species that Spider Silk Glue Component ASG2 is a Spidroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collin, Matthew A; Clarke, Thomas H; Ayoub, Nadia A; Hayashi, Cheryl Y

    2016-02-15

    Spiders in the superfamily Araneoidea produce viscous glue from aggregate silk glands. Aggregate glue coats prey-capture threads and hampers the escape of prey from webs, thereby increasing the foraging success of spiders. cDNAs for Aggregate Spider Glue 1 (ASG1) and 2 (ASG2) have been previously described from the golden orb-weaver, Nephila clavipes, and Western black widow, Latrodectus hesperus. To further investigate aggregate glues, we assembled ASG1 and ASG2 from genomic target capture libraries constructed from three species of cob-web weavers and three species of orb-web weavers, all araneoids. We show that ASG1 is unlikely to be a glue, but rather is part of a widespread arthropod gene family, the peritrophic matrix proteins. For ASG2, we demonstrate its remarkable architectural and sequence similarities to spider silk fibroins, indicating that ASG2 is a member of the spidroin gene family. Thus, spidroins have diversified into glues in addition to task-specific, high performance fibers.

  6. Busy Bees: Variation in Insect Flower-Visiting Rates across Multiple Plant Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret J. Couvillon

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We quantified insect visitation rates by counting how many flowers/inflorescences were probed per unit time for five plant species (four native and one garden: California lilac, bramble, ragwort, wild marjoram, and ivy growing in Sussex, United Kingdom, by following individual insects (n=2987 from nine functional groups (honey bees (Apis mellifera, bumble bees (Bombus spp., hoverflies, flies, butterflies, beetles, wasps, non-Apidae bees, and moths. Additionally, we made a census of the insect diversity on the studied plant species. Overall we found that insect groups differed greatly in their rate of flower visits (P<2.2e-16, with bumble bees and honey bees visiting significantly more flowers per time (11.5 and 9.2 flowers/minute, resp. than the other insect groups. Additionally, we report on a within-group difference in the non-Apidae bees, where the genus Osmia, which is often suggested as an alternative to honey bees as a managed pollinator, was very speedy (13.4 flowers/minute compared to the other non-Apidae bees (4.3 flowers/minute. Our census showed that the plants attracted a range of insects, with the honey bee as the most abundant visitor (34%. Therefore, rate differences cannot be explained by particular specializations. Lastly, we discuss potential implications of our conclusions for pollination.

  7. Complete mitochondrial genome phylogeographic analysis of killer whales (Orcinus orca) indicates multiple species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Phillip A; Archer, Frederick I; Foote, Andrew D; Vilstrup, Julia; Allen, Eric E; Wade, Paul; Durban, John; Parsons, Kim; Pitman, Robert; Li, Lewyn; Bouffard, Pascal; Abel Nielsen, Sandra C; Rasmussen, Morten; Willerslev, Eske; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Harkins, Timothy

    2010-07-01

    Killer whales (Orcinus orca) currently comprise a single, cosmopolitan species with a diverse diet. However, studies over the last 30 yr have revealed populations of sympatric "ecotypes" with discrete prey preferences, morphology, and behaviors. Although these ecotypes avoid social interactions and are not known to interbreed, genetic studies to date have found extremely low levels of diversity in the mitochondrial control region, and few clear phylogeographic patterns worldwide. This low level of diversity is likely due to low mitochondrial mutation rates that are common to cetaceans. Using killer whales as a case study, we have developed a method to readily sequence, assemble, and analyze complete mitochondrial genomes from large numbers of samples to more accurately assess phylogeography and estimate divergence times. This represents an important tool for wildlife management, not only for killer whales but for many marine taxa. We used high-throughput sequencing to survey whole mitochondrial genome variation of 139 samples from the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and southern oceans. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that each of the known ecotypes represents a strongly supported clade with divergence times ranging from approximately 150,000 to 700,000 yr ago. We recommend that three named ecotypes be elevated to full species, and that the remaining types be recognized as subspecies pending additional data. Establishing appropriate taxonomic designations will greatly aid in understanding the ecological impacts and conservation needs of these important marine predators. We predict that phylogeographic mitogenomics will become an important tool for improved statistical phylogeography and more precise estimates of divergence times.

  8. Modeling hippocampal neurogenesis across the lifespan in seven species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazic, Stanley E

    2012-08-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the number of new cells and neurons added to the dentate gyrus across the lifespan, and to compare the rate of age-associated decline in neurogenesis across species. Data from mice (Mus musculus), rats (Rattus norvegicus), lesser hedgehog tenrecs (Echinops telfairi), macaques (Macaca mulatta), marmosets (Callithrix jacchus), tree shrews (Tupaia belangeri), and humans (Homo sapiens) were extracted from 21 data sets published in 14 different reports. Analysis of variance (ANOVA), exponential, Weibull, and power models were fit to the data to determine which best described the relationship between age and neurogenesis. Exponential models provided a suitable fit and were used to estimate the relevant parameters. The rate of decrease of neurogenesis correlated with species longevity (r = 0.769, p = 0.043), but not body mass or basal metabolic rate. Of all the cells added postnatally to the mouse dentate gyrus, only 8.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0% to 14.7%) of these will be added after middle age. In addition, only 5.7% (95% CI 0.7% to 9.9%) of the existing cell population turns over from middle age and onward. Thus, relatively few new cells are added for much of an animal's life, and only a proportion of these will mature into functional neurons. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Marmosets as model species in neuroscience and evolutionary anthropology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Judith M; Finkenwirth, Christa

    2015-04-01

    Marmosets are increasingly used as model species by both neuroscientists and evolutionary anthropologists, but with a different rationale for doing so. Whereas neuroscientists stress that marmosets share many cognitive traits with humans due to common descent, anthropologists stress those traits shared with marmosets - and callitrichid monkeys in general - due to convergent evolution, as a consequence of the cooperative breeding system that characterizes both humans and callitrichids. Similarities in socio-cognitive abilities due to convergence, rather than homology, raise the question whether these similarities also extend to the proximate regulatory mechanisms, which is particularly relevant for neuroscientific investigations. In this review, we first provide an overview of the convergent adaptations to cooperative breeding at the psychological and cognitive level in primates, which bear important implications for our understanding of human cognitive evolution. In the second part, we zoom in on two of these convergent adaptations, proactive prosociality and social learning, and compare their proximate regulation in marmosets and humans with regard to oxytocin and cognitive top down regulation. Our analysis suggests considerable similarity in these regulatory mechanisms presumably because the convergent traits emerged due to small motivational changes that define how pre-existing cognitive mechanisms are quantitatively combined. This finding reconciles the prima facie contradictory rationale for using marmosets as high priority model species in neuroscience and anthropology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

  10. A Fuzzy Logic Framework for Integrating Multiple Learned Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartog, Bobi Kai Den [Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE (United States)

    1999-03-01

    The Artificial Intelligence field of Integrating Multiple Learned Models (IMLM) explores ways to combine results from sets of trained programs. Aroclor Interpretation is an ill-conditioned problem in which trained programs must operate in scenarios outside their training ranges because it is intractable to train them completely. Consequently, they fail in ways related to the scenarios. We developed a general-purpose IMLM solution, the Combiner, and applied it to Aroclor Interpretation. The Combiner's first step, Scenario Identification (M), learns rules from very sparse, synthetic training data consisting of results from a suite of trained programs called Methods. S1 produces fuzzy belief weights for each scenario by approximately matching the rules. The Combiner's second step, Aroclor Presence Detection (AP), classifies each of three Aroclors as present or absent in a sample. The third step, Aroclor Quantification (AQ), produces quantitative values for the concentration of each Aroclor in a sample. AP and AQ use automatically learned empirical biases for each of the Methods in each scenario. Through fuzzy logic, AP and AQ combine scenario weights, automatically learned biases for each of the Methods in each scenario, and Methods' results to determine results for a sample.

  11. Multiplicative multifractal modeling and discrimination of human neuronal activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Yi; Gao Jianbo; Sanchez, Justin C.; Principe, Jose C.; Okun, Michael S.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding neuronal firing patterns is one of the most important problems in theoretical neuroscience. It is also very important for clinical neurosurgery. In this Letter, we introduce a computational procedure to examine whether neuronal firing recordings could be characterized by cascade multiplicative multifractals. By analyzing raw recording data as well as generated spike train data from 3 patients collected in two brain areas, the globus pallidus externa (GPe) and the globus pallidus interna (GPi), we show that the neural firings are consistent with a multifractal process over certain time scale range (t 1 ,t 2 ), where t 1 is argued to be not smaller than the mean inter-spike-interval of neuronal firings, while t 2 may be related to the time that neuronal signals propagate in the major neural branching structures pertinent to GPi and GPe. The generalized dimension spectrum D q effectively differentiates the two brain areas, both intra- and inter-patients. For distinguishing between GPe and GPi, it is further shown that the cascade model is more effective than the methods recently examined by Schiff et al. as well as the Fano factor analysis. Therefore, the methodology may be useful in developing computer aided tools to help clinicians perform precision neurosurgery in the operating room

  12. Neutron-multiplicity experiments for enhanced fission modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Adili, Ali; Tarrío, Diego; Hambsch, Franz-Josef; Göök, Alf; Jansson, Kaj; Solders, Andreas; Rakapoulos, Vasileios; Gustavsson, Cecilia; Lantz, Mattias; Mattera, Andrea; Oberstedt, Stephan; Prokofiev, Alexander V.; Sundén, Erik A.; Vidali, Marzio; Österlund, Michael; Pomp, Stephan

    2017-09-01

    The nuclear de-excitation process of fission fragments (FF) provides fundamental information for the understanding of nuclear fission and nuclear structure in neutron-rich isotopes. The variation of the prompt-neutron multiplicity, ν(A), as a function of the incident neutron energy (En) is one of many open questions. It leads to significantly different treatments in various fission models and implies that experimental data are analyzed based on contradicting assumptions. One critical question is whether the additional excitation energy (Eexc) is manifested through an increase of ν(A) for all fragments or for the heavy ones only. A systematic investigation of ν(A) as a function of En has been initiated. Correlations between prompt-fission neutrons and fission fragments are obtained by using liquid scintillators in conjunction with a Frisch-grid ionization chamber. The proof-of-principle has been achieved on the reaction 235U(nth,f) at the Van De Graff (VdG) accelerator of the JRC-Geel using a fully digital data acquisition system. Neutrons from 252Cf(sf) were measured separately to quantify the neutron-scattering component due to surrounding shielding material and to determine the intrinsic detector efficiency. Prelimenary results on ν(A) and spectrum in correlation with FF properties are presented.

  13. Multiple models guide strategies for agricultural nutrient reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Read, Jennifer; Aloysius, Noel; Bertani, Isabella; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; Yen, Haw

    2017-01-01

    In response to degraded water quality, federal policy makers in the US and Canada called for a 40% reduction in phosphorus (P) loads to Lake Erie, and state and provincial policy makers in the Great Lakes region set a load-reduction target for the year 2025. Here, we configured five separate SWAT (US Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models to assess load reduction strategies for the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed, the largest P source contributing to toxic algal blooms in Lake Erie. Although several potential pathways may achieve the target loads, our results show that any successful pathway will require large-scale implementation of multiple practices. For example, one successful pathway involved targeting 50% of row cropland that has the highest P loss in the watershed with a combination of three practices: subsurface application of P fertilizers, planting cereal rye as a winter cover crop, and installing buffer strips. Achieving these levels of implementation will require local, state/provincial, and federal agencies to collaborate with the private sector to set shared implementation goals and to demand innovation and honest assessments of water quality-related programs, policies, and partnerships.

  14. Predicting Environmental Suitability for a Rare and Threatened Species (Lao Newt, Laotriton laoensis) Using Validated Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.

    2013-01-01

    The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808

  15. Predicting environmental suitability for a rare and threatened species (Lao newt, Laotriton laoensis using validated species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda J Chunco

    Full Text Available The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed.

  16. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  17. Taxonaut: an application software for comparative display of multiple taxonomies with a use case of GBIF Species API.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ytow, Nozomi

    2016-01-01

    The Species API of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) provides public access to taxonomic data aggregated from multiple data sources. Each data source follows its own classification which can be inconsistent with classifications from other sources. Even with a reference classification e.g. the GBIF Backbone taxonomy, a comprehensive method to compare classifications in the data aggregation is essential, especially for non-expert users. A Java application was developed to compare multiple taxonomies graphically using classification data acquired from GBIF's ChecklistBank via the GBIF Species API. It uses a table to display taxonomies where each column represents a taxonomy under comparison, with an aligner column to organise taxa by name. Each cell contains the name of a taxon if the classification in that column contains the name. Each column also has a cell showing the hierarchy of the taxonomy by a folder metaphor where taxa are aligned and synchronised in the aligner column. A set of those comparative tables shows taxa categorised by relationship between taxonomies. The result set is also available as tables in an Excel format file.

  18. Multiple Pathogens Including Potential New Species in Tick Vectors in Côte d'Ivoire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyrille Bilé Ehounoud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our study aimed to assess the presence of different pathogens in ticks collected in two regions in Côte d'Ivoire.Real-time PCR and standard PCR assays coupled to sequencing were used. Three hundred and seventy eight (378 ticks (170 Amblyomma variegatum, 161 Rhipicepalus microplus, 3 Rhipicephalus senegalensis, 27 Hyalomma truncatum, 16 Hyalomma marginatum rufipes, and 1 Hyalomma impressum were identified and analyzed. We identified as pathogenic bacteria, Rickettsia africae in Am. variegatum (90%, Rh. microplus (10% and Hyalomma spp. (9%, Rickettsia aeschlimannii in Hyalomma spp. (23%, Rickettsia massiliae in Rh. senegalensis (33% as well as Coxiella burnetii in 0.2%, Borrelia sp. in 0.2%, Anaplasma centrale in 0.2%, Anaplasma marginale in 0.5%, and Ehrlichia ruminantium in 0.5% of all ticks. Potential new species of Borrelia, Anaplasma, and Wolbachia were detected. Candidatus Borrelia africana and Candidatus Borrelia ivorensis (detected in three ticks are phylogenetically distant from both the relapsing fever group and Lyme disease group borreliae; both were detected in Am. variegatum. Four new genotypes of bacteria from the Anaplasmataceae family were identified, namely Candidatus Anaplasma ivorensis (detected in three ticks, Candidatus Ehrlichia urmitei (in nine ticks, Candidatus Ehrlichia rustica (in four ticks, and Candidatus Wolbachia ivorensis (in one tick.For the first time, we demonstrate the presence of different pathogens such as R. aeschlimannii, C. burnetii, Borrelia sp., A. centrale, A. marginale, and E. ruminantium in ticks in Côte d'Ivoire as well as potential new species of unknown pathogenicity.

  19. Multiple Pathogens Including Potential New Species in Tick Vectors in Côte d'Ivoire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehounoud, Cyrille Bilé; Yao, Kouassi Patrick; Dahmani, Mustapha; Achi, Yaba Louise; Amanzougaghene, Nadia; Kacou N'Douba, Adèle; N'Guessan, Jean David; Raoult, Didier; Fenollar, Florence; Mediannikov, Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Our study aimed to assess the presence of different pathogens in ticks collected in two regions in Côte d'Ivoire. Real-time PCR and standard PCR assays coupled to sequencing were used. Three hundred and seventy eight (378) ticks (170 Amblyomma variegatum, 161 Rhipicepalus microplus, 3 Rhipicephalus senegalensis, 27 Hyalomma truncatum, 16 Hyalomma marginatum rufipes, and 1 Hyalomma impressum) were identified and analyzed. We identified as pathogenic bacteria, Rickettsia africae in Am. variegatum (90%), Rh. microplus (10%) and Hyalomma spp. (9%), Rickettsia aeschlimannii in Hyalomma spp. (23%), Rickettsia massiliae in Rh. senegalensis (33%) as well as Coxiella burnetii in 0.2%, Borrelia sp. in 0.2%, Anaplasma centrale in 0.2%, Anaplasma marginale in 0.5%, and Ehrlichia ruminantium in 0.5% of all ticks. Potential new species of Borrelia, Anaplasma, and Wolbachia were detected. Candidatus Borrelia africana and Candidatus Borrelia ivorensis (detected in three ticks) are phylogenetically distant from both the relapsing fever group and Lyme disease group borreliae; both were detected in Am. variegatum. Four new genotypes of bacteria from the Anaplasmataceae family were identified, namely Candidatus Anaplasma ivorensis (detected in three ticks), Candidatus Ehrlichia urmitei (in nine ticks), Candidatus Ehrlichia rustica (in four ticks), and Candidatus Wolbachia ivorensis (in one tick). For the first time, we demonstrate the presence of different pathogens such as R. aeschlimannii, C. burnetii, Borrelia sp., A. centrale, A. marginale, and E. ruminantium in ticks in Côte d'Ivoire as well as potential new species of unknown pathogenicity.

  20. An update on neuro-ophthalmology of multiple sclerosis: the visual system as a model to study multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qureshi, Sara S; Beh, Shin C; Frohman, Teresa C; Frohman, Elliot M

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this review is to familiarize the reader with the landscape of current neuro-ophthalmology research in the field of multiple sclerosis and to highlight important findings, directions of future research and advances in the clinical management of visual and ocular motor manifestations of multiple sclerosis. Research pertaining to the visual system in multiple sclerosis has identified new biomarkers of disease and is contributing to a better understanding of disease mechanisms. Progress has been made in the symptomatic management of visual manifestations of multiple sclerosis and visual outcome measures are now being included in clinical trials, with important quality of life ramifications. Perhaps the most prominent contribution from neuro-ophthalmology research in multiple sclerosis has been the establishment of the visual system as a model to study disease pathogenesis, and for the systematic, objective, and longitudinal detection and monitoring of protective and restorative neurotherapeutic strategies. The emergence of these sophisticated capabilities has been in large part due to the application of high speed, high definition, and objective methods for the elucidation of both the structure and function of visual system networks. Advances in neuro-ophthalmology research in multiple sclerosis have led to the establishment of the visual system as a model to objectively study disease pathogenesis, and for the identification of novel neurotherapeutic capabilities. With the prospects of myelin repair and neuroprotective agents increasingly becoming recognized as achievable goals, the validation and utility of new visual outcome measures quantifying changes in axonal integrity, myelin protection, and repair will likely prove invaluable.

  1. Dealing with noisy absences to optimize species distribution models: an iterative ensemble modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Lauzeral

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are widespread in ecology and conservation biology, but their accuracy can be lowered by non-environmental (noisy absences that are common in species occurrence data. Here we propose an iterative ensemble modelling (IEM method to deal with noisy absences and hence improve the predictive reliability of ensemble modelling of species distributions. In the IEM approach, outputs of a classical ensemble model (EM were used to update the raw occurrence data. The revised data was then used as input for a new EM run. This process was iterated until the predictions stabilized. The outputs of the iterative method were compared to those of the classical EM using virtual species. The IEM process tended to converge rapidly. It increased the consensus between predictions provided by the different methods as well as between those provided by different learning data sets. Comparing IEM and EM showed that for high levels of non-environmental absences, iterations significantly increased prediction reliability measured by the Kappa and TSS indices, as well as the percentage of well-predicted sites. Compared to EM, IEM also reduced biases in estimates of species prevalence. Compared to the classical EM method, IEM improves the reliability of species predictions. It particularly deals with noisy absences that are replaced in the data matrices by simulated presences during the iterative modelling process. IEM thus constitutes a promising way to increase the accuracy of EM predictions of difficult-to-detect species, as well as of species that are not in equilibrium with their environment.

  2. Exclusive description of multiple production on nuclei in the additive quark model. Multiplicity distributions in interactions with heavy nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levchenko, B.B.; Nikolaev, N.N.

    1985-01-01

    In the framework of the additive quark model of multiple production on nuclei we calculate the multiplicity distributions of secondary particles and the correlations between secondary particles in πA and pA interactions with heavy nuclei. We show that intranuclear cascades are responsible for up to 50% of the nuclear increase of the multiplicity of fast particles. We analyze the sensitivity of the multiplicities and their correlations to the choice of the quark-hadronization function. We show that with good accuracy the yield of relativistic secondary particles from heavy and intermediate nuclei depends only on the number N/sub p/ of protons knocked out of the nucleus, and not on the mass number of the nucleus (N/sub p/ scaling)

  3. Assessment of Serum Nitrogen Species and Inflammatory Parameters in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Patients Treated with Different Therapeutic Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Niedziela

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of nitric oxide and its reactive derivatives (NOx is well known in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis, which is an inflammatory disease while NOx seems to be important in coordinating inflammatory response. The purpose of the present study was to assess serum NOx as one of the nitrogen species and inflammatory parameters in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients and to compare the effectiveness of various types of disease-modifying therapies that reduce nitric oxide and inflammatory biomarkers. Elevated NOx level was observed in patients who received the first-line disease-modifying therapy (interferons beta-1a and beta-1b in comparison with the subjects treated with the second-line disease-modifying therapy (natalizumab; fingolimod and healthy controls without significant differences in C-reactive protein and interleukin-1 beta. A negative correlation was observed between serum NOx level and the duration of multiple sclerosis confirmed in the whole study population and in subjects treated with the first-line agents. Only serum NOx, concentration could reveal a potential efficacy of disease-modifying therapy with a better reduction in NOx level due to the second-line agents of disease-modifying therapy.

  4. Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

  5. Do species distribution models predict species richness in urban and natural green spaces? A case study using amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban green spaces are potentially important to biodiversity conservation because they represent habitat islands in a mosaic of development, and could harbor high biodiversity or provide connectivity to nearby habitat. Presence only species distribution models (SDMs) represent a ...

  6. Floral development at multiple spatial scales in Polygonum jucundum (Polygonaceae), a distylous species with broadly open flowers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lan-Jie; Fu, Wen-Long; Wang, Xiao-Fan

    2014-01-01

    Distyly, a special polymorph, has evolved in many groups of angiosperms and has attracted attention since Darwin's time. Development studies on distylous taxa have helped us to understand the evolutionary process of this polymorph, but most of these studies focus on species with narrowly tubular corolla. Here, we studied the floral development of Polygonum jucundum, a distylous species with broadly open flowers, at multiple spatial scales. Results showed that the difference in stigma height between flowers of the two morphs was caused by differences in style growth throughout the entire floral development process. The observed difference in anther heights between the two morphs was because the filaments grew faster in short-styled (SS) than in long-styled (LS) flowers in the later stages of floral development. In addition, the longer styles in LS flowers than in SS flowers was because of faster cell division in the early stages of floral development. However, SS flowers had longer filaments than LS flowers primarily because of greater cell elongation. These results indicate that floral development in P. jucundum differs from that of distylous taxa with floral tubes shown in previous studies. Further, we conclude that the presence of distyly in species with open flowers is a result of convergent evolution.

  7. Conifer DBMagic: A database housing multiple de novo transcriptome assemblies for twelve diverse conifer species

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Walter Lorenz; Savavanaraj Ayyampalayam; John M. Bordeaux; Glenn T. Howe; Kathleen D. Jermstad; David B. Neale; Deborah L. Rogers; Jeffrey F.D. Dean

    2012-01-01

    Conifers comprise an ancient and widespread plant lineage of enormous commercial and ecological value. However, compared to model woody angiosperms, such as Populus and Eucalyptus, our understanding of conifers remains quite limited at a genomic level. Large genome sizes (10,000-40,000 Mbp) and large amounts of repetitive DNA...

  8. Large-Scale Orthology Predictions for Inferring Gene Functions Across Multiple Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    mutations associated with cancer by studying their corresponding orthologous genes in mice (Denny, 2000). Moreover, the identification of orthologous...taxonomic profiling of eukaryotic model organisms: a comparison of orthologous proteins encoded by the human, fly, nematode , and yeast genomes.” Genome

  9. Monitoring multiple species: Estimating state variables and exploring the efficacy of a monitoring program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattfeldt, S.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Grant, E.H.C.

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring programs have the potential to identify population declines and differentiate among the possible cause(s) of these declines. Recent criticisms regarding the design of monitoring programs have highlighted a failure to clearly state objectives and to address detectability and spatial sampling issues. Here, we incorporate these criticisms to design an efficient monitoring program whose goals are to determine environmental factors which influence the current distribution and measure change in distributions over time for a suite of amphibians. In designing the study we (1) specified a priori factors that may relate to occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities and (2) used the data collected (incorporating detectability) to address our scientific questions and adjust our sampling protocols. Our results highlight the role of wetland hydroperiod and other local covariates in the probability of amphibian occupancy. There was a change in overall occupancy probabilities for most species over the first three years of monitoring. Most colonization and extinction estimates were constant over time (years) and space (among wetlands), with one notable exception: local extinction probabilities for Rana clamitans were lower for wetlands with longer hydroperiods. We used information from the target system to generate scenarios of population change and gauge the ability of the current sampling to meet monitoring goals. Our results highlight the limitations of the current sampling design, emphasizing the need for long-term efforts, with periodic re-evaluation of the program in a framework that can inform management decisions.

  10. Multiple evolutionary processes drive the patterns of genetic differentiation in a forest tree species complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Rebecca C; Steane, Dorothy A; Lavery, Martyn; Vaillancourt, René E; Potts, Brad M

    2013-01-01

    Forest trees frequently form species complexes, complicating taxonomic classification and gene pool management. This is certainly the case in Eucalyptus, and well exemplified by the Eucalyptus globulus complex. This ecologically and economically significant complex comprises four taxa (sspp. bicostata, globulus, maidenii, pseudoglobulus) that are geographically and morphologically distinct, but linked by extensive “intergrade” populations. To resolve their genetic affinities, nine microsatellites were used to genotype 1200 trees from throughout the natural range of the complex in Australia, representing 33 morphological core and intergrade populations. There was significant spatial genetic structure (FST = 0.10), but variation was continuous. High genetic diversity in southern ssp. maidenii indicates that this region is the center of origin. Genetic diversity decreases and population differentiation increases with distance from this area, suggesting that drift is a major evolutionary process. Many of the intergrade populations, along with other populations morphologically classified as ssp. pseudoglobulus or ssp. globulus, belong to a “cryptic genetic entity” that is genetically and geographically intermediate between core ssp. bicostata, ssp. maidenii, and ssp. globulus. Geography, rather than morphology, therefore, is the best predictor of overall genetic affinities within the complex and should be used to classify germplasm into management units for conservation and breeding purposes. PMID:23403692

  11. Role of multiple hosts in the cross-species transmission and emergence of a pandemic parvovirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Andrew B; Harbison, Carole E; Pagan, Israel; Stucker, Karla M; Kaelber, Jason T; Brown, Justin D; Ruder, Mark G; Keel, M Kevin; Dubovi, Edward J; Holmes, Edward C; Parrish, Colin R

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms of cross-species virus transmission is critical to anticipating emerging infectious diseases. Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) emerged as a variant of a feline parvovirus when it acquired mutations that allowed binding to the canine transferrin receptor type 1 (TfR). However, CPV-2 was soon replaced by a variant virus (CPV-2a) that differed in antigenicity and receptor binding. Here we show that the emergence of CPV involved an additional host range variant virus that has circulated undetected in raccoons for at least 24 years, with transfers to and from dogs. Raccoon virus capsids showed little binding to the canine TfR, showed little infection of canine cells, and had altered antigenic structures. Remarkably, in capsid protein (VP2) phylogenies, most raccoon viruses fell as evolutionary intermediates between the CPV-2 and CPV-2a strains, suggesting that passage through raccoons assisted in the evolution of CPV-2a. This highlights the potential role of alternative hosts in viral emergence.

  12. Multiple Pseudomonas species secrete exolysin-like toxins and provoke Caspase-1-dependent macrophage death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, Pauline; Wallet, Pierre; Elsen, Sylvie; Soleilhac, Emmanuelle; Henry, Thomas; Faudry, Eric; Attrée, Ina

    2017-10-01

    Pathogenic bacteria secrete protein toxins that provoke apoptosis or necrosis of eukaryotic cells. Here, we developed a live-imaging method, based on incorporation of a DNA-intercalating dye into membrane-damaged host cells, to study the kinetics of primary bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs) mortality induced by opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa expressing either Type III Secretion System (T3SS) toxins or the pore-forming toxin, Exolysin (ExlA). We found that ExlA promotes the activation of Caspase-1 and maturation of interleukin-1β. BMDMs deficient for Caspase-1 and Caspase-11 were resistant to ExlA-induced death. Furthermore, by using KO BMDMs, we determined that the upstream NLRP3/ASC complex leads to the Caspase-1 activation. We also demonstrated that Pseudomonas putida and Pseudomonas protegens and the Drosophila pathogen Pseudomonas entomophila, which naturally express ExlA-like toxins, are cytotoxic toward macrophages and provoke the same type of pro-inflammatory death as does ExlA + P. aeruginosa. These results demonstrate that ExlA-like toxins of two-partner secretion systems from diverse Pseudomonas species activate the NLRP3 inflammasome and provoke inflammatory pyroptotic death of macrophages. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Modeling a Single SEP Event from Multiple Vantage Points Using the iPATH Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junxiang; Li, Gang; Fu, Shuai; Zank, Gary; Ao, Xianzhi

    2018-02-01

    Using the recently extended 2D improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, we model an example gradual solar energetic particle event as observed at multiple locations. Protons and ions that are energized via the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism are followed at a 2D coronal mass ejection-driven shock where the shock geometry varies across the shock front. The subsequent transport of energetic particles, including cross-field diffusion, is modeled by a Monte Carlo code that is based on a stochastic differential equation method. Time intensity profiles and particle spectra at multiple locations and different radial distances, separated in longitudes, are presented. The results shown here are relevant to the upcoming Parker Solar Probe mission.

  14. Species invasion history influences community evolution in a tri-trophic food web model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiko Mougi

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent experimental studies have demonstrated the importance of invasion history for evolutionary formation of community. However, only few theoretical studies on community evolution have focused on such views.We used a tri-trophic food web model to analyze the coevolutionary effects of ecological invasions by a mutant and by a predator and/or resource species of a native consumer species community and found that ecological invasions can lead to various evolutionary histories. The invasion of a predator makes multiple evolutionary community histories possible, and the evolutionary history followed can determine both the invasion success of the predator into the native community and the fate of the community. A slight difference in the timing of an ecological invasion can lead to a greatly different fate. In addition, even greatly different community histories can converge as a result of environmental changes such as a predator trait shift or a productivity change. Furthermore, the changes to the evolutionary history may be irreversible.Our modeling results suggest that the timing of ecological invasion of a species into a focal community can largely change the evolutionary consequences of the community. Our approach based on adaptive dynamics will be a useful tool to understand the effect of invasion history on evolutionary formation of community.

  15. Species invasion history influences community evolution in a tri-trophic food web model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mougi, Akihiko; Nishimura, Kinya

    2009-08-24

    Recent experimental studies have demonstrated the importance of invasion history for evolutionary formation of community. However, only few theoretical studies on community evolution have focused on such views. We used a tri-trophic food web model to analyze the coevolutionary effects of ecological invasions by a mutant and by a predator and/or resource species of a native consumer species community and found that ecological invasions can lead to various evolutionary histories. The invasion of a predator makes multiple evolutionary community histories possible, and the evolutionary history followed can determine both the invasion success of the predator into the native community and the fate of the community. A slight difference in the timing of an ecological invasion can lead to a greatly different fate. In addition, even greatly different community histories can converge as a result of environmental changes such as a predator trait shift or a productivity change. Furthermore, the changes to the evolutionary history may be irreversible. Our modeling results suggest that the timing of ecological invasion of a species into a focal community can largely change the evolutionary consequences of the community. Our approach based on adaptive dynamics will be a useful tool to understand the effect of invasion history on evolutionary formation of community.

  16. Generalized linear longitudinal mixed models with linear covariance structure and multiplicative random effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, René; Jørgensen, Bent

    2015-01-01

    The paper proposes a versatile class of multiplicative generalized linear longitudinal mixed models (GLLMM) with additive dispersion components, based on explicit modelling of the covariance structure. The class incorporates a longitudinal structure into the random effects models and retains...

  17. Pyrolysis of reinforced polymer composites: Parameterizing a model for multiple compositions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Geraldine E.

    A single set of material properties was developed to describe the pyrolysis of fiberglass reinforced polyester composites at multiple composition ratios. Milligram-scale testing was performed on the unsaturated polyester (UP) resin using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) coupled with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to establish and characterize an effective semi-global reaction mechanism, of three consecutive first-order reactions. Radiation-driven gasification experiments were conducted on UP resin and the fiberglass composites at compositions ranging from 41 to 54 wt% resin at external heat fluxes from 30 to 70 kW m -2. The back surface temperature was recorded with an infrared camera and used as the target for inverse analysis to determine the thermal conductivity of the systematically isolated constituent species. Manual iterations were performed in a comprehensive pyrolysis model, ThermaKin. The complete set of properties was validated for the ability to reproduce the mass loss rate during gasification testing.

  18. Tracking the Penetration of Plasma Reactive Species in Tissue Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szili, Endre J; Hong, Sung-Ha; Oh, Jun-Seok; Gaur, Nishtha; Short, Robert D

    2017-08-23

    Electrically generated cold atmospheric plasma is being intensively researched for novel applications in biology and medicine. Significant attention is being given to reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (RONS), initially generated upon plasma-air interactions, and subsequently delivered to biological systems. Effects of plasma exposure are observed to millimeter depths within tissue. However, the exact nature of the initial plasma-tissue interactions remains unknown, including RONS speciation and delivery depth, or how plasma-derived RONS intervene in biological processes. Herein, we focus on current research using tissue and cell models to learn more about the plasma delivery of RONS into biological environments. We argue that this research is vital in underpinning the knowledge required to realize the full potential of plasma in biology and medicine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Sarmentine, a natural herbicide from Piper species with multiple herbicide mechanisms of action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franck Emmanuel Dayan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sarmentine, 1-(1-pyrrolidinyl-(2E,4E-2,4-decadien-1-one, is a natural amide isolated from the fruits of Piper species. The compound has a number of interesting biological properties, including its broad-spectrum activity on weeds as a contact herbicide. Initial studies highlighted a similarity in response between plants treated with sarmentine and herbicidal soaps such as pelargonic acid (nonanoic acid. However, little was known about the mechanism of action leading to the rapid desiccation of foliage treated by sarmentine. In cucumber cotyledon disc-assays, sarmentine induced rapid light-independent loss of membrane integrity at 100 µM or higher concentration, whereas 3 mM pelargonic acid was required for a similar effect. Sarmentine was between 10 and 30 times more active than pelargonic acid on wild mustard, velvetleaf, redroot pigweed and crabgrass. Additionally, the potency of 30 µM sarmentine was greatly stimulated by light, suggesting that this natural product may also interfere with photosynthetic processes. This was confirmed by observing a complete inhibition of photosynthetic electron transport at that concentration. Sarmentine also acted as an inhibitor of photosystem II on isolated thylakoid membranes by competing for the binding site of plastoquinone. This can be attributed in part to structural similarities between herbicides like sarmentine and diuron. While this mechanism of action accounts for the light stimulation of the activity of sarmentine, it does not account for its ability to destabilize membranes in darkness. In this respect, sarmentine has some structural similarity to crotonoyl-CoA, the substrate of enoyl-ACP reductase, a key enzyme in the early steps of fatty acid synthesis. Inhibitors of this enzyme, such as triclosan, cause rapid loss of membrane integrity in the dark. Sarmentine inhibited the activity of enoyl-ACP reductase, with an I50app of 18.3 µM. Therefore, the herbicidal activity of sarmentine appears to

  20. Numerical modelling of multiple scattering between two elastical particles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnø, Irina; Jensen, Leif Bjørnø

    1998-01-01

    in suspension have been studied extensively since Foldy's formulation of his theory for isotropic scattering by randomly distributed scatterers. However, a number of important problems related to multiple scattering are still far from finding their solutions. A particular, but still unsolved, problem......Multiple acoustical signal interactions with sediment particles in the vicinity of the seabed may significantly change the course of sediment concentration profiles determined by inversion from acoustical backscattering measurements. The scattering properties of high concentrations of sediments...... is the question of proximity thresholds for influence of multiple scattering in terms of particle properties like volume fraction, average distance between particles or other related parameters. A few available experimental data indicate a significance of multiple scattering in suspensions where the concentration...

  1. BAYESIAN MODELS FOR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING WITH ONLY-PRESENCE RECORDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolo de Jesús Villar-Hernández

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the central issues in ecology is the study of geographical distribution of species of flora and fauna through Species Distribution Models (SDM. Recently, scientific interest has focused on presence-only records. Two recent approaches have been proposed for this problem: a model based on maximum likelihood method (Maxlike and an inhomogeneous poisson process model (IPP. In this paper we discussed two bayesian approaches called MaxBayes and IPPBayes based on Maxlike and IPP model, respectively. To illustrate these proposals, we implemented two study examples: (1 both models were implemented on a simulated dataset, and (2 we modeled the potencial distribution of genus Dalea in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlán biosphere reserve with both models, the results was compared with that of Maxent. The results show that both models, MaxBayes and IPPBayes, are viable alternatives when species distribution are modeled with only-presence records. For simulated dataset, MaxBayes achieved prevalence estimation, even when the number of records was small. In the real dataset example, both models predict similar potential distributions like Maxent does. Â

  2. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  3. An Additive-Multiplicative Cox-Aalen Regression Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  4. On the relationship between multiple porosity models and continuous time random walk

    OpenAIRE

    Nordbotten, Jan Martin; Vasilyev, Leonid

    2010-01-01

    We derive a multiple porosity model based on the continuous time random walk model (CTRW). In particular, we show how the parameters of the multiple porosity models relate to the transition probability function which is at the heart of the CTRW formulation. A simple example is included to illustrate the results.

  5. Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model with Fuzzy Time Weight Scheme

    OpenAIRE

    Chin-Yao Low; Sung-Nung Lin

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we purpose a common fuzzy multiple criteria decision making model. A brand new concept - fuzzy time weighted scheme is adopted for considering in the model to establish a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making with time weight (FMCDMTW) model. A real case of fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) problems to be considering in this study. The performance evaluation of auction websites based on all criteria proposed in related literature. Obviously, the problem under in...

  6. Analysis of a Fishery Model with two competing prey species in the presence of a predator species for Optimal Harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutimin; Khabibah, Siti; Munawwaroh, Dita Anis

    2018-02-01

    A harvesting fishery model is proposed to analyze the effects of the presence of red devil fish population, as a predator in an ecosystem. In this paper, we consider an ecological model of three species by taking into account two competing species and presence of a predator (red devil), the third species, which incorporates the harvesting efforts of each fish species. The stability of the dynamical system is discussed and the existence of biological and bionomic equilibrium is examined. The optimal harvest policy is studied and the solution is derived in the equilibrium case applying Pontryagin's maximal principle. The simulation results is presented to simulate the dynamical behavior of the model and show that the optimal equilibrium solution is globally asymptotically stable. The results show that the optimal harvesting effort is obtained regarding to bionomic and biological equilibrium.

  7. Problem solving based learning model with multiple representations to improve student's mental modelling ability on physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haili, Hasnawati; Maknun, Johar; Siahaan, Parsaoran

    2017-08-01

    Physics is a lessons that related to students' daily experience. Therefore, before the students studying in class formally, actually they have already have a visualization and prior knowledge about natural phenomenon and could wide it themselves. The learning process in class should be aimed to detect, process, construct, and use students' mental model. So, students' mental model agree with and builds in the right concept. The previous study held in MAN 1 Muna informs that in learning process the teacher did not pay attention students' mental model. As a consequence, the learning process has not tried to build students' mental modelling ability (MMA). The purpose of this study is to describe the improvement of students' MMA as a effect of problem solving based learning model with multiple representations approach. This study is pre experimental design with one group pre post. It is conducted in XI IPA MAN 1 Muna 2016/2017. Data collection uses problem solving test concept the kinetic theory of gasses and interview to get students' MMA. The result of this study is clarification students' MMA which is categorized in 3 category; High Mental Modelling Ability (H-MMA) for 7MMA) for 3MMA) for 0 ≤ x ≤ 3 score. The result shows that problem solving based learning model with multiple representations approach can be an alternative to be applied in improving students' MMA.

  8. A systematic study of multiple minerals precipitation modelling in wastewater treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazadi Mbamba, Christian; Tait, Stephan; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Batstone, Damien J

    2015-11-15

    Mineral solids precipitation is important in wastewater treatment. However approaches to minerals precipitation modelling are varied, often empirical, and mostly focused on single precipitate classes. A common approach, applicable to multi-species precipitates, is needed to integrate into existing wastewater treatment models. The present study systematically tested a semi-mechanistic modelling approach, using various experimental platforms with multiple minerals precipitation. Experiments included dynamic titration with addition of sodium hydroxide to synthetic wastewater, and aeration to progressively increase pH and induce precipitation in real piggery digestate and sewage sludge digestate. The model approach consisted of an equilibrium part for aqueous phase reactions and a kinetic part for minerals precipitation. The model was fitted to dissolved calcium, magnesium, total inorganic carbon and phosphate. Results indicated that precipitation was dominated by the mineral struvite, forming together with varied and minor amounts of calcium phosphate and calcium carbonate. The model approach was noted to have the advantage of requiring a minimal number of fitted parameters, so the model was readily identifiable. Kinetic rate coefficients, which were statistically fitted, were generally in the range 0.35-11.6 h(-1) with confidence intervals of 10-80% relative. Confidence regions for the kinetic rate coefficients were often asymmetric with model-data residuals increasing more gradually with larger coefficient values. This suggests that a large kinetic coefficient could be used when actual measured data is lacking for a particular precipitate-matrix combination. Correlation between the kinetic rate coefficients of different minerals was low, indicating that parameter values for individual minerals could be independently fitted (keeping all other model parameters constant). Implementation was therefore relatively flexible, and would be readily expandable to include other

  9. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  10. Modeled distributions of 12 tree species in New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel I. Riemann; Barry T. Wilson; Andrew J. Lister; Oren Cook; Sierra. Crane-Murdoch

    2014-01-01

    These maps depict the distribution of 12 tree species across the state of New York. The maps show where these trees do not occur (gray), occasionally occur (pale green), are a minor component (medium green), are a major component (dark green), or are the dominant species (black) in the forest, as determined by that species' total basal area. Basal area is the area...

  11. Description of light charged particle multiplicities in the framework of dinuclear system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonenko N.V.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of dinuclear system (DNS model we calculate the light charged particle (LCP multiplicities produced in fusion and quasifission reactions and their kinetic energy spectra. Calculations indicate that with increasing bombarding energy the ratio of LCP multiplicity from fragments MFF to corresponding LCP multiplicity from compound nucleus (CN MCN strongly increases.

  12. Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Vitor H F; IJff, Stéphanie D; Raes, Niels; Amaral, Iêda Leão; Salomão, Rafael P; de Souza Coelho, Luiz; de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia; Castilho, Carolina V; de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes; López, Dairon Cárdenas; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Magnusson, William E; Phillips, Oliver L; Wittmann, Florian; de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo; Martins, Maria Pires; Irume, Mariana Victória; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Bánki, Olaf S; da Silva Guimarães, José Renan; Pitman, Nigel C A; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Venticinque, Eduardo Martins; de Leão Novo, Evlyn Márcia Moraes; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Terborgh, John; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Montero, Juan Carlos; Casula, Katia Regina; Marimon, Beatriz S; Marimon, Ben-Hur; Coronado, Euridice N Honorio; Feldpausch, Ted R; Duque, Alvaro; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Killeen, Timothy J; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Schöngart, Jochen; Assis, Rafael L; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Laurance, William F; Camargo, José Luís; Demarchi, Layon O; Laurance, Susan G W; de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Quaresma, Adriano; Costa, Flavia R C; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Castellanos, Hernán; Brienen, Roel; Stevenson, Pablo R; Feitosa, Yuri; Duivenvoorden, Joost F; Aymard C, Gerardo A; Mogollón, Hugo F; Targhetta, Natalia; Comiskey, James A; Vicentini, Alberto; Lopes, Aline; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Emilio, Thaise; Alonso, Alfonso; Neill, David; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Praia, Daniel; do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Feeley, Kenneth; Arroyo, Luzmila; Pansonato, Marcelo Petratti; Gribel, Rogerio; Villa, Boris; Licona, Juan Carlos; Fine, Paul V A; Cerón, Carlos; Baraloto, Chris; Jimenez, Eliana M; Stropp, Juliana; Engel, Julien; Silveira, Marcos; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Maas, Paul; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Henkel, Terry W; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; Baker, Tim R; Fuentes, Alfredo; Peres, Carlos A; Chave, Jerome; Pena, Jose Luis Marcelo; Dexter, Kyle G; Silman, Miles R; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Pennington, Toby; Di Fiore, Anthony; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Phillips, Juan Fernando; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; von Hildebrand, Patricio; van Andel, Tinde R; Ruschel, Ademir R; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Hoffman, Bruce; Vela, César I A; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; Zent, Egleé L; Gonzales, George Pepe Gallardo; Doza, Hilda Paulette Dávila; de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula; Guillaumet, Jean-Louis; Pinto, Linder Felipe Mozombite; de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos; Silva, Natalino; Gómez, Ricardo Zárate; Zent, Stanford; Gonzales, Therany; Vos, Vincent A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Oliveira, Alexandre A; Cano, Angela; Albuquerque, Bianca Weiss; Vriesendorp, Corine; Correa, Diego Felipe; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; van der Heijden, Geertje; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Young, Kenneth R; Rocha, Maira; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; Tirado, Milton; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Mendoza, Casimiro; Ferreira, Cid; Baider, Cláudia; Villarroel, Daniel; Balslev, Henrik; Mesones, Italo; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Casas, Luisa Fernanda; Reategui, Manuel Augusto Ahuite; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Zagt, Roderick; Cárdenas, Sasha; Farfan-Rios, William; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Pauletto, Daniela; Sandoval, Elvis H Valderrama; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; Alexiades, Miguel N; Pansini, Susamar; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Milliken, William; Ricardo, Joana; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Pos, Edwin; Ter Steege, Hans

    2018-01-17

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species' area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.

  13. Peptide-Recombinant VP6 Protein Based Enzyme Immunoassay for the Detection of Group A Rotaviruses in Multiple Host Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Kumar

    Full Text Available We developed a novel enzyme immunoassay for the detection of group A rotavirus (RVA antigen in fecal samples of multiple host species. The assay is based on the detection of conserved VP6 protein using anti-recombinant VP6 antibodies as capture antibodies and anti-multiple antigenic peptide (identified and constructed from highly immunodominant epitopes within VP6 protein antibodies as detector antibodies. The clinical utility of the assay was evaluated using a panel of 914 diarrhoeic fecal samples from four different host species (bovine, porcine, poultry and human collected from diverse geographical locations in India. Using VP6- based reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR as the gold standard, we found that the diagnostic sensitivity (DSn and specificity (DSp of the new assay was high [bovine (DSn = 94.2% & DSp = 100%; porcine (DSn = 94.6% & DSp = 93.3%; poultry (DSn = 74.2% & DSp = 97.7% and human (DSn = 82.1% & DSp = 98.7%]. The concordance with RT-PCR was also high [weighted kappa (k = 0.831-0.956 at 95% CI = 0.711-1.0] as compared to RNA-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (RNA-PAGE. The performance characteristics of the new immunoassay were comparable to those of the two commercially available ELISA kits. Our results suggest that this peptide-recombinant protein based assay may serve as a preliminary assay for epidemiological surveillance of RVA antigen and for evaluation of vaccine effectiveness especially in low and middle income settings.

  14. Generalized additive models used to predict species abundance in the Gulf of Mexico: an ecosystem modeling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Drexler

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit ecosystem models of all types require an initial allocation of biomass, often in areas where fisheries independent abundance estimates do not exist. A generalized additive modelling (GAM approach is used to describe the abundance of 40 species groups (i.e. functional groups across the Gulf of Mexico (GoM using a large fisheries independent data set (SEAMAP and climate scale oceanographic conditions. Predictor variables included in the model are chlorophyll a, sediment type, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and depth. Despite the presence of a large number of zeros in the data, a single GAM using a negative binomial distribution was suitable to make predictions of abundance for multiple functional groups. We present an example case study using pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duroarum and compare the results to known distributions. The model successfully predicts the known areas of high abundance in the GoM, including those areas where no data was inputted into the model fitting. Overall, the model reliably captures areas of high and low abundance for the large majority of functional groups observed in SEAMAP. The result of this method allows for the objective setting of spatial distributions for numerous functional groups across a modeling domain, even where abundance data may not exist.

  15. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 Havana (Cuba); Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)]. E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Alfonso, L. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Rivas, D. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)

    2007-02-15

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion.

  16. 17-DMAG inhibits the multiplication of several Babesia species and Theileria equi on in vitro cultures, and Babesia microti in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guswanto, Azirwan; Nugraha, Arifin Budiman; Tuvshintulga, Bumduuren; Tayebwa, Dickson Stuart; Rizk, Mohamed Abdo; Batiha, Gaber El-Saber; Gantuya, Sambuu; Sivakumar, Thillaiampalam; Yokoyama, Naoaki; Igarashi, Ikuo

    2018-02-27

    Heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) is a chaperone protein that stabilizes cells during stress or non-stress responses. Previous reports have shown that Hsp90 is a potential drug target to suppress the multiplication of several protozoan parasites. In this study, 17-dimethylaminoethylamino-17-demethoxygeldanamycin (17-DMAG), an Hsp90 inhibitor, was evaluated for its inhibitory effect on five in vitro cultures of Babesia and Theileria species, including B. bovis, B. bigemina, B. divergens, B. caballi, and T. equi, and on the multiplication of a B. microti-infected mouse model. 17-DMAG showed the inhibitory effect in all of the species tested. The half maximum inhibition concentration (IC 50 ) of 17-DMAG on B. bovis, B. bigemina, B. divergens, B. caballi, and T. equi was 77.6 ± 2.9, 62.4 ± 1.9, 183.8 ± 3.2, 88.5 ± 9.6, and 307.7 ± 7.2 nM, respectively. The toxicity assay on MDBK and NIH/3T3 cell lines showed that 17-DMAG affected the viability of cells with an IC 50 of 15.5 ± 4 and 8.8 ± 2 μM, respectively. Since the IC 50 s were much lower on the parasites than on the host cell lines, the selectivity index were high for all tested species. Furthermore, the two-drug combination of 17-DMAG with diminazene aceturate (DA) and atovaquone (AV) showed synergism or addition on in vitro cultures of Babesia and Theileria parasites. In the mouse model, 17-DMAG at a concentration of 30 mg/kg BW effectively inhibited the multiplication of B. microti. Moreover, if combined with DA or AV, 17-DMAG showed a comparable inhibition at the half dose. Taken together, these results indicate that 17-DMAG is a potent drug for treating piroplamosis. The data warrant further evaluation of 17-DMAG as an antibabesial drug and as an option in combination with atovaquone for the treatment of human babesiosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Cross-species extrapolation of prediction model for lead transfer from soil to corn grain under stress of exogenous lead.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaojun Li

    Full Text Available There has been increasing concern in recent years regarding lead (Pb transfer in the soil-plant system. In this study the transfer of Pb (exogenous salts was investigated from a wide range of Chinese soils to corn grain (Zhengdan 958. Prediction models were developed with combination of the Pb bioconcentration factor (BCF of Zhengdan 958, and soil pH, organic matter (OM content, and cation exchange capacity (CEC through multiple stepwise regressions. Moreover, these prediction models from Zhengdan 958 were applied to other non-model corn species through cross-species extrapolation approach. The results showed that the soil pH and OM were the major factors that controlled Pb transfer from soil to corn grain. The lower pH and OM could improve the bioaccumulation of Pb in corn grain. No significant differences were found between two prediction models derived from the different exogenous Pb contents. When the prediction models were applied to other non-model corn species, the ratio ranges between the predicted BCF values and the measured BCF values were within an interval of 2-fold and close to the solid line of 1∶1 relationship. Moreover, the prediction model i.e. Log[BCF] = -0.098 pH-0.150 log[OM] -1.894 at the treatment of high Pb can effectively reduce the measured BCF intra-species variability for all non-model corn species. These suggested that this prediction model derived from the high Pb content was more adaptable to be applied to other non-model corn species to predict the Pb bioconcentration in corn grain and assess the ecological risk of Pb in different agricultural soils.

  18. Modelling and Verification of Multiple UAV Mission Using SMV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopinadh Sirigineedi

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Model checking has been used to verify the correctness of digital circuits, security protocols, communication protocols, as they can be modelled by means of finite state transition model. However, modelling the behaviour of hybrid systems like UAVs in a Kripke model is challenging. This work is aimed at capturing the behaviour of an UAV performing cooperative search mission into a Kripke model, so as to verify it against the temporal properties expressed in Computational Tree Logic (CTL. SMV model checker is used for the purpose of model checking.

  19. Multiple regression models of δ13C and δ15N for fish populations in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radabaugh, Kara R.; Peebles, Ernst B.

    2014-08-01

    Multiple regression models were created to explain spatial and temporal variation in the δ13C and δ15N values of fish populations on the West Florida Shelf (eastern Gulf of Mexico, USA). Extensive trawl surveys from three time periods were used to acquire muscle samples from seven groundfish species. Isotopic variation (δ13Cvar and δ15Nvar) was calculated as the deviation from the isotopic mean of each fish species. Static spatial data and dynamic water quality parameters were used to create models predicting δ13Cvar and δ15Nvar in three fish species that were caught in the summers of 2009 and 2010. Additional data sets were then used to determine the accuracy of the models for predicting isotopic variation (1) in a different time period (fall 2010) and (2) among four entirely different fish species that were collected during summer 2009. The δ15Nvar model was relatively stable and could be applied to different time periods and species with similar accuracy (mean absolute errors 0.31-0.33‰). The δ13Cvar model had a lower predictive capability and mean absolute errors ranged from 0.42 to 0.48‰. δ15N trends are likely linked to gradients in nitrogen fixation and Mississippi River influence on the West Florida Shelf, while δ13C trends may be linked to changes in algal species, photosynthetic fractionation, and abundance of benthic vs. planktonic basal resources. These models of isotopic variability may be useful for future stable isotope investigations of trophic level, basal resource use, and animal migration on the West Florida Shelf.

  20. Algivore or phototroph? Plakobranchus ocellatus (Gastropoda continuously acquires kleptoplasts and nutrition from multiple algal species in nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Maeda

    Full Text Available The sea slug Plakobranchus ocellatus (Sacoglossa, Gastropoda retains photosynthetically active chloroplasts from ingested algae (functional kleptoplasts in the epithelial cells of its digestive gland for up to 10 months. While its feeding behavior has not been observed in natural habitats, two hypotheses have been proposed: 1 adult P. ocellatus uses kleptoplasts to obtain photosynthates and nutritionally behaves as a photoautotroph without replenishing the kleptoplasts; or 2 it behaves as a mixotroph (photoautotroph and herbivorous consumer and replenishes kleptoplasts continually or periodically. To address the question of which hypothesis is more likely, we examined the source algae for kleptoplasts and temporal changes in kleptoplast composition and nutritional contribution. By characterizing the temporal diversity of P. ocellatus kleptoplasts using rbcL sequences, we found that P. ocellatus harvests kleptoplasts from at least 8 different siphonous green algal species, that kleptoplasts from more than one species are present in each individual sea slug, and that the kleptoplast composition differs temporally. These results suggest that wild P. ocellatus often feed on multiple species of siphonous algae from which they continually obtain fresh chloroplasts. By estimating the trophic position of wild and starved P. ocellatus using the stable nitrogen isotopic composition of amino acids, we showed that despite the abundance of kleptoplasts, their photosynthates do not contribute greatly to the nutrition of wild P. ocellatus, but that kleptoplast photosynthates form a significant source of nutrition for starved sea slugs. The herbivorous nature of wild P. ocellatus is consistent with insights from molecular analyses indicating that kleptoplasts are frequently replenished from ingested algae, leading to the conclusion that natural populations of P. ocellatus do not rely on photosynthesis but mainly on the digestion of ingested algae.

  1. Redox-Stratified Bacterial Communities in Sediments Associated with Multiple Lucinid Bivalve Species: Implications for Symbiosis in Changing Coastal Habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, A. T.; Fortier, C. M.; Long, B.; Kokesh, B. S.; Lim, S. J.; Campbell, B. J.; Anderson, L. C.; Engel, A. S.

    2017-12-01

    Lucinids, chemosymbiotic marine bivalves, occupy strong redox gradient habitats, including the rhizosphere of coastal seagrass beds and mangrove forests in subtropical to tropical ecosystems. Lucinids and their sulfide-oxidizing gammaproteobacterial endosymbionts, which are acquired from the environment, provide a critical ecosystem service by removing toxic reduced sulfur compounds from the surrounding environment, and lucinids may be an important food source to economically valuable fisheries. The habitats of Phacoides pectinatus, Stewartia floridana, Codakia orbicularis, Ctena orbiculata, and Lucina pensylvanica lucinids in Florida and San Salvador in The Bahamas were evaluated in comprehensive malacological, microbiological, and geochemical surveys. Vegetation cover included different seagrass species or calcareous green macroalgae. All sites were variably affected by anthropogenic activities, as evidenced by visible prop scars in seagrass beds, grain size distributions atypical of low energy environments (i.e., artificial fill or dredge material from nearby channels), and high levels of pyrogenic hydrocarbon compounds in sediment indicative of urbanization impact. Where present, lucinid population densities frequently exceeded 2000 individuals per cubic meter, and were typically more abundant underlying seagrass compared to unvegetated, bare sand. Dissolved oxygen and sulfide levels varied from where lucinids were recovered. The sediment bacterial communities from classified 16S rRNA gene sequences indicated that the diversity of putative anaerobic groups increased with sediment depth, but putative aerobes, including of Gammaproteobacteria related to the lucinid endosymbionts, decreased with depth. Where multiple seagrass species co-occurred, retrieved bacterial community compositions correlated to overlying seagrass species, but diversity differed from bare sand patches, including among putative free-living endosymbiont groups. As such, continued sea

  2. Seeing the forest and the trees: multilevel models reveal both species and community patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelle M. Jackson; Monica G. Turner; Scott M. Pearson; Anthony R. Ives

    2012-01-01

    Studies designed to understand species distributions and community assemblages typically use separate analytical approaches (e.g., logistic regression and ordination) to model the distribution of individual species and to relate community composition to environmental variation. Multilevel models (MLMs) offer a promising strategy for integrating species and community-...

  3. Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gomes, Vitor H.F.; Ijff, Stéphanie D.; Raes, Niels; Amaral, Iêda Leão; Salomão, Rafael P.; Coelho, Luiz De Souza; Matos, Francisca Dionízia De Almeida; Castilho, Carolina V.; Filho, Diogenes De Andrade Lima; López, Dairon Cárdenas; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Magnusson, William E.; Phillips, Oliver L.; Wittmann, Florian; Carim, Marcelo De Jesus Veiga; Martins, Maria Pires; Irume, Mariana Victória; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean François; Bánki, Olaf S.; Guimarães, José Renan Da Silva; Pitman, Nigel C.A.; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Venticinque, Eduardo Martins; de Leão Novo, E.M.M.; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Terborgh, John; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Montero, Juan Carlos; Montero, Juan Carlos; Casula, Katia Regina; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Marimon, Ben Hur; Honorio Coronado, Euridice N.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Duque, Alvaro; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Killeen, Timothy J.; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Schöngart, Jochen; Assis, Rafael L.; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Laurance, William F.; Camargo, José Luís; Demarchi, Layon O.; Laurance, Susan G.W.; Farias, Emanuelle De Sousa; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Quaresma, Adriano; Costa, Flavia R.C.; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Castellanos, Hernán; Brienen, Roel; Stevenson, Pablo R.; Feitosa, Yuri; Duivenvoorden, Joost F.; Aymard, Gerardo A.C.; Mogollón, Hugo F.; Targhetta, Natalia; Comiskey, James A.; Vicentini, Alberto; Lopes, Aline; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Levis, Carolina; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Emilio, Thaise; Alonso, Alfonso; Neill, David; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Praia, Daniel; Amaral, Do Dário Dantas; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; Souza, De Fernanda Coelho

    2018-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs.

  4. Variation partitioning of diatom species data matrices: Understanding the influence of multiple factors on benthic diatom communities in tropical streams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bere, Taurai, E-mail: tbere2015@gmail.com; Mangadze, Tinotenda; Mwedzi, Tongai

    2016-10-01

    Elucidating the confounding influence of multiple environmental factors on benthic diatom communities is important in developing water quality predictive models for better guidance of stream management efforts. The objective of this study was to explore the relative impact of metal pollution and hydromorphological alterations in, addition to nutrient enrichment and organic pollution, on diatom taxonomic composition with the view to improve stream diatom-based water quality inference models. Samples were collected twice at 20 sampling stations in the tropical Manyame Catchment, Zimbabwe. Diatom, macroinvertebrate communities and environmental factors were sampled and analysed. The variations in diatom community composition explained by different categories of environmental factors were analysed using canonical correspondence analysis using variance partitioning (partial CCA). The following variations were explained by the different predictor matrices: nutrient levels and organic pollution - 10.4%, metal pollution - 8.3% and hydromorphological factors - 7.9%. Thus, factors other than nutrient levels and organic pollution explain additional significant variation in these diatom communities. Development of diatom-based stream water quality inference models that incorporate metal pollution and hydromorphological alterations, where these are key issues, is thus deemed necessary. - Highlights: • Confounding influences of multiple environmental factors on diatom communities are elucidated. • Variation explained: nutrients + organic pollution - 10.4%, metals - 8.3% and hydromorphological factors - 7.9%. • Calibration of existing or development of new indices may be necessary.

  5. Key issues for the development and application of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model for ecological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Fu-Liu; Li, Yi-Long; Wang, Yin

    2015-01-01

    The species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model is one of the most commonly used methods for ecological risk assessment based on the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of and the combined PAF (msPAF) as quantitative indicators. There are usually four steps for the development of SSD models...... fractions (msPAFs) for the joint ecological risk assessment of multiple pollutants. Among the above mentioned four steps, the first two steps are paramount. In the present study, the following six key issues are discussed: (1) how to select the appropriate species, (2) how to preprocess the toxicity data...... for invertebrates. The concentration addition or response addition were discussed to calculate msPAF according to the toxic model of action (TMoA). The uncertainties of the SSD models for five heavy metals and for eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were performed. The comparison of the coefficients...

  6. Interstitial integrals in the multiple-scattering model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swanson, J.R.; Dill, D.

    1982-01-01

    We present an efficient method for the evaluation of integrals involving multiple-scattering wave functions over the interstitial region. Transformation of the multicenter interstitial wave functions to a single center representation followed by a geometric projection reduces the integrals to products of analytic angular integrals and numerical radial integrals. The projection function, which has the value 1 in the interstitial region and 0 elsewhere, has a closed-form partial-wave expansion. The method is tested by comparing its results with exact normalization and dipole integrals; the differences are 2% at worst and typically less than 1%. By providing an efficient means of calculating Coulomb integrals, the method allows treatment of electron correlations using a multiple scattering basis set

  7. Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-based Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches employ do- main knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Compo- nent...

  8. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, M.P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.

    2011-01-01

    Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding

  9. Multiple linear regression models for predicting chronic aluminum toxicity to freshwater aquatic organisms and developing water quality guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeForest, David K; Brix, Kevin V; Tear, Lucinda M; Adams, William J

    2018-01-01

    The bioavailability of aluminum (Al) to freshwater aquatic organisms varies as a function of several water chemistry parameters, including pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and water hardness. We evaluated the ability of multiple linear regression (MLR) models to predict chronic Al toxicity to a green alga (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata), a cladoceran (Ceriodaphnia dubia), and a fish (Pimephales promelas) as a function of varying DOC, pH, and hardness conditions. The MLR models predicted toxicity values that were within a factor of 2 of observed values in 100% of the cases for P. subcapitata (10 and 20% effective concentrations [EC10s and EC20s]), 91% of the cases for C. dubia (EC10s and EC20s), and 95% (EC10s) and 91% (EC20s) of the cases for P. promelas. The MLR models were then applied to all species with Al toxicity data to derive species and genus sensitivity distributions that could be adjusted as a function of varying DOC, pH, and hardness conditions (the P. subcapitata model was applied to algae and macrophytes, the C. dubia model was applied to invertebrates, and the P. promelas model was applied to fish). Hazardous concentrations to 5% of the species or genera were then derived in 2 ways: 1) fitting a log-normal distribution to species-mean EC10s for all species (following the European Union methodology), and 2) fitting a triangular distribution to genus-mean EC20s for animals only (following the US Environmental Protection Agency methodology). Overall, MLR-based models provide a viable approach for deriving Al water quality guidelines that vary as a function of DOC, pH, and hardness conditions and are a significant improvement over bioavailability corrections based on single parameters. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:80-90. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  10. Multiple Models of Reality and How to Use Them

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamroga, W.J.; Blockeel, H.; Denecker, M.

    2002-01-01

    A virtual agent may obviously benefit from having an up-to-date model of her environment of activity. The model may include actual users' profiles, a dynamic environment characteristic or some assumptions being accepted by default. However, the agent doesn't have to stick to one model only, she can

  11. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  12. Biotic modifiers, environmental modulation and species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linder, H. Peter; Bykova, Olga; Dyke, James; Etienne, Rampal S.; Hickler, Thomas; Kuehn, Ingolf; Marion, Glenn; Ohlemueller, Ralf; Schymanski, Stanislaus J.; Singer, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The ability of species to modulate environmental conditions and resources has long been of interest. In the past three decades the impacts of these biotic modifiers have been investigated as ecosystem engineers, niche constructors, facilitators and keystone species. This environmental modulation can

  13. Plant survival and keystone pollinator species in stochastic coextinction models: role of intrinsic dependence on animal-pollination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traveset, Anna; Tur, Cristina; Eguíluz, Víctor M

    2017-07-31

    Coextinction models are useful to understand community robustness to species loss and resilience to disturbances. We simulated pollinator extinctions in pollination networks by using a hybrid model that combined a recently developed stochastic coextinction model (SCM) for plant extinctions and a topological model (TCM) for animal extinctions. Our model accounted for variation in interaction strengths and included empirical estimates of plant dependence on pollinators to set seeds. The stochastic nature of such model allowed us determining plant survival to single (and multiple) extinction events, and identifying which pollinators (keystone species) were more likely to trigger secondary extinctions. Consistently across three different pollinator removal sequences, plant robustness was lower than in a pure TCM, and plant survival was more determined by dependence on the mutualism than by interaction strength. As expected, highly connected and dependent plants were the most sensitive to pollinator loss and collapsed faster in extinction cascades. We predict that the relationship between dependence and plant connectivity is crucial to determine network robustness to interaction loss. Finally, we showed that honeybees and several beetles were keystone species in our communities. This information is of great value to foresee consequences of pollinator losses facing current global change and to identify target species for effective conservation.

  14. A solvable two-species catalysis-driven aggregation model

    CERN Document Server

    Ke Jian Hong

    2003-01-01

    We study the kinetics of a two-species catalysis-driven aggregation system, in which an irreversible aggregation between any two clusters of one species occurs only with the catalytic action of another species. By means of a generalized mean-field rate equation, we obtain the asymptotic solutions of the cluster mass distributions in a simple process with a constant rate kernel. For the case without any consumption of the catalyst, the cluster mass distribution of either species always approaches a conventional scaling law. However, the evolution behaviour of the system in the case with catalyst consumption is complicated and depends crucially on the relative data of the initial concentrations of the two species.

  15. Use of Multiple Models in CarbonTracker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, A. R.; Baker, D. F.; Valsala, V.; van der Werf, G.; Kawa, S. R.; Masarie, K.; Trudeau, M. E.; Oda, T.; Peters, W.; Tans, P. P.

    2011-12-01

    The CarbonTracker atmospheric CO2 analysis system historically has used one atmospheric transport model (TM5 with ECMWF forecast model winds), one terrestrial biosphere model (a CASA variant used by the GFED fire emissions project), and one model each of air-sea exchange and fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide. While careful attention has been paid to mitigating the effects of imperfectly-known transport and prior flux errors, chracteristics of these models propagate through the Bayesian analysis to CarbonTracker's optimized surface flux estimates. In an attempt to assess these effects and to capture the uncertainty associated with model errors, we have expanded CarbonTracker to use a suite of prior flux models and two atmospheric transport estimates. In this presentation, we will discuss the impact of these changes on CarbonTracker results, and the challenges associated with incorporating disparate flux priors and transport estimates in an inversion framework.

  16. The importance of data quality for generating reliable distribution models for rare, elusive, and cryptic species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith B Aubry

    Full Text Available The availability of spatially referenced environmental data and species occurrence records in online databases enable practitioners to easily generate species distribution models (SDMs for a broad array of taxa. Such databases often include occurrence records of unknown reliability, yet little information is available on the influence of data quality on SDMs generated for rare, elusive, and cryptic species that are prone to misidentification in the field. We investigated this question for the fisher (Pekania pennanti, a forest carnivore of conservation concern in the Pacific States that is often confused with the more common Pacific marten (Martes caurina. Fisher occurrence records supported by physical evidence (verifiable records were available from a limited area, whereas occurrence records of unknown quality (unscreened records were available from throughout the fisher's historical range. We reserved 20% of the verifiable records to use as a test sample for both models and generated SDMs with each dataset using Maxent. The verifiable model performed substantially better than the unscreened model based on multiple metrics including AUCtest values (0.78 and 0.62, respectively, evaluation of training and test gains, and statistical tests of how well each model predicted test localities. In addition, the verifiable model was consistent with our knowledge of the fisher's habitat relations and potential distribution, whereas the unscreened model indicated a much broader area of high-quality habitat (indices > 0.5 that included large expanses of high-elevation habitat that fishers do not occupy. Because Pacific martens remain relatively common in upper elevation habitats in the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada, the SDM based on unscreened records likely reflects primarily a conflation of marten and fisher habitat. Consequently, accurate identifications are far more important than the spatial extent of occurrence records for generating reliable SDMs

  17. Evolutionary Genetic Analysis Uncovers Multiple Species with Distinct Habitat Preferences and Antibiotic Resistance Phenotypes in the Stenotrophomonas maltophilia Complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz E. Ochoa-Sánchez

    2017-08-01

    were significantly more susceptible to antibiotics than S. maltophilia. We demonstrate that the sympatric lineages recovered display significantly differentiated habitat preferences, antibiotic resistance profiles and β-lactamase expression phenotypes, as shown by diverse multivariate analyses and robust univariate statistical tests. We discuss our data in light of current models of bacterial speciation, which fit these data well, stressing the implications of species delimitation in ecological, evolutionary and clinical research.

  18. Different phylogenomic approaches to resolve the evolutionary relationships among model fish species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negrisolo, Enrico; Kuhl, Heiner; Forcato, Claudio; Vitulo, Nicola; Reinhardt, Richard; Patarnello, Tomaso; Bargelloni, Luca

    2010-12-01

    Comparative genomics holds the promise to magnify the information obtained from individual genome sequencing projects, revealing common features conserved across genomes and identifying lineage-specific characteristics. To implement such a comparative approach, a robust phylogenetic framework is required to accurately reconstruct evolution at the genome level. Among vertebrate taxa, teleosts represent the second best characterized group, with high-quality draft genome sequences for five model species (Danio rerio, Gasterosteus aculeatus, Oryzias latipes, Takifugu rubripes, and Tetraodon nigroviridis), and several others are in the finishing lane. However, the relationships among the acanthomorph teleost model fishes remain an unresolved taxonomic issue. Here, a genomic region spanning over 1.2 million base pairs was sequenced in the teleost fish Dicentrarchus labrax. Together with genomic data available for the above fish models, the new sequence was used to identify unique orthologous genomic regions shared across all target taxa. Different strategies were applied to produce robust multiple gene and genomic alignments spanning from 11,802 to 186,474 amino acid/nucleotide positions. Ten data sets were analyzed according to Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony, and neighbor joining methods. Extensive analyses were performed to explore the influence of several factors (e.g., alignment methodology, substitution model, data set partitions, and long-branch attraction) on the tree topology. Although a general consensus was observed for a closer relationship between G. aculeatus (Gasterosteidae) and Di. labrax (Moronidae) with the atherinomorph O. latipes (Beloniformes) sister taxon of this clade, with the tetraodontiform group Ta. rubripes and Te. nigroviridis (Tetraodontiformes) representing a more distantly related taxon among acanthomorph model fish species, conflicting results were obtained between data sets and methods, especially with respect

  19. Shifts in the importance of the species pool and environmental controls of epiphytic bryophyte richness across multiple scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Nagore G; Bowker, Matthew A; Hortal, Joaquín; Mazimpaka, Vicente; Lara, Francisco

    2018-03-01

    Species richness is influenced by a nested set of environmental factors, but how do these factors interact across several scales? Our main aim is to disentangle the relative importance of environmental filters and the species pool on the richness of epiphytic bryophytes across spatial scales. To do so, we sampled epiphytic bryophytes in 43 oak forests across the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula. As predictors we used climate, descriptors of forest structure and micro-environment. We applied structural equation modeling to relate these variables with richness and cover at three scales: locality (forest), stand (three stands per forest), and sample (a quadrate in a tree). We assumed top-down relationships, so that large-scale variables influenced lower scale variables, and in which cover directly influenced richness. Richness at the next larger scale (locality to stand and stand to sample) is considered a surrogate of the species pool and included as a predictor of richness at the next smaller scale. Environmental variables explain locality richness, but as we decrease the spatial scale, its importance decreases and the dependence on species pool increases. In addition, we found unexpected bottom-up relationships (between micro-scale environment to locality richness). Our results point to the scale dependence of niche vs. neutral processes: niche processes are important at the locality (forest) scale, while neutral processes are significant at the small (sample) scale. We propose a modified conceptualization of the factors influencing biodiversity at different spatial scales by adding links across different scales (between micro-environment and locality-scale richness in our study).

  20. Measuring the effects of socioeconomic factors on mental health among migrants in urban China: a multiple indicators multiple causes model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Ming

    2017-01-01

    Since 1978, rural-urban migrants mainly contribute Chinese urbanization. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of socioeconomic factors on mental health of them. Their mental health was measured by 12-item general health questionnaire (GHQ-12). The study sample comprised 5925 migrants obtained from the 2009 rural-to-urban migrants survey (RUMiC). The relationships among the instruments were assessed by the correlation analysis. The one-factor (overall items), two-factor (positive vs. negative items), and model conducted by principal component analysis were tested in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). On the basis of three CFA models, the three multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models with age, gender, marriage, ethnicity, and employment were constructed to investigate the concurrent associations between socioeconomic factors and GHQ-12. Of the sample, only 1.94% were of ethnic origin and mean age was 31.63 (SD = ±10.43) years. The one-factor, two-factor, and three-factor structure (i.e. semi-positive/negative/independent usefulness) had good model fits in the CFA analysis and gave order (i.e. 2 factor>3 factor>1 factor), which suggests that the three models can be used to assess psychological symptoms of migrants in urban China. All MIMIC models had acceptable fit and gave order (i.e. one-dimensional model>two-dimensional model>three-dimensional model). There were weak associations of socioeconomic factors with mental health among migrants in urban China. Policy discussion suggested that improvement of socioeconomic status of rural-urban migrants and mental health systems in urban China should be highlighted and strengthened.

  1. Joint Modeling of Multiple Crimes: A Bayesian Spatial Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongqiang Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A multivariate Bayesian spatial modeling approach was used to jointly model the counts of two types of crime, i.e., burglary and non-motor vehicle theft, and explore the geographic pattern of crime risks and relevant risk factors. In contrast to the univariate model, which assumes independence across outcomes, the multivariate approach takes into account potential correlations between crimes. Six independent variables are included in the model as potential risk factors. In order to fully present this method, both the multivariate model and its univariate counterpart are examined. We fitted the two models to the data and assessed them using the deviance information criterion. A comparison of the results from the two models indicates that the multivariate model was superior to the univariate model. Our results show that population density and bar density are clearly associated with both burglary and non-motor vehicle theft risks and indicate a close relationship between these two types of crime. The posterior means and 2.5% percentile of type-specific crime risks estimated by the multivariate model were mapped to uncover the geographic patterns. The implications, limitations and future work of the study are discussed in the concluding section.

  2. Lithologic data improve plant species distribution models based on coarse-grained occurrence data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaston, A.; Soriano, C.; Gomez-Miguel, V.

    2009-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the improvement of plant species distribution models based on coarse-grained occurrence data when adding lithologic data to climatic models. The distributions of 40 woody plant species from continental Spain were modelled. A logistic regression model with climatic predictors was fitted for each species and compared to a second model with climatic and lithologic predictors. Improvements on model likelihood and prediction accuracy on validation sub samples were assessed, as well as the effect of calcicole calcifuge habit on model improvement. Climatic models had reasonable mean prediction accuracy, but adding lithologic data improved model likelihood in most cases and increased mean prediction accuracy. Therefore, we recommend utilizing lithologic data for species distribution models based on coarse-grained occurrence data. Our data did not support the hypothesis that calcicole calcifuge habit may explain model improvement when adding lithologic data to climatic models, but further research is needed. (Author) 31 refs.

  3. Reducing the computational requirements for simulating tunnel fires by combining multiscale modelling and multiple processor calculation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Rein, Guillermo; Colella, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    in FDS version 6.0, a widely used fire-specific, open source CFD software. Furthermore, it compares the reduction in simulation time given by multiscale modelling with the one given by the use of multiple processor calculation. This was done using a 1200m long tunnel with a rectangular cross...... processor calculation (97% faster when using a single mesh and multiscale modelling; only 46% faster when using the full tunnel and multiple meshes). In summary, it was found that multiscale modelling with FDS v.6.0 is feasible, and the combination of multiple meshes and multiscale modelling was established...

  4. Two reported cytotypes of the emergent orchid model species Erycina pusilla are two different species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yeh, Hsuan Yu; Lin, Choun Sea; Jong, de Hans; Chang, Song-Bin

    2017-01-01

    Each species is characterized by a specific set of chromosomes, which is described as the chromosome portrait or karyotype. In general, such a karyotype is the same for all individuals in the population. An exception to that rule has recently been found in the orchid Erycina pusilla, which has

  5. Understanding the Risk to Neotropical Migrant Bird Species of Multiple Human-Caused Stressors: Elucidating Processes Behind the Patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph S. Hames

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Ubiquitous human-caused changes to the environment act as multiple stressors for organisms in the wild, and the effects of these stressors may be synergistic, rather than merely additive, with unexpected results. However, understanding how focal organisms respond to these stressors is crucial for conservation planning for these species. We propose a paradigm that alternates extensive, broadscale data collection by volunteer collaborators to document patterns of response, with intensive fine-scale studies by professional researchers, to elucidate the processes underlying these patterns. We demonstrate this technique, building on our existing work linking patterns of population declines in the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina to synergistic effects of acid rain and habitat fragmentation. To better understand the processes behind these patterns, we use a simple protocol to explore linkages between acid rain, leaching of calcium from the soil, and declines in the abundance of calcium-rich invertebrate prey species, which may be necessary for successful breeding by this thrush. We sampled at 40 study sites across New York that were chosen based on estimated acid deposition and soil properties. Our results show that the calcium content of the soils sampled is proportional to the soil pH, that the abundance of calcium-rich invertebrate prey tracks soil properties, and that the presence of a breeding Wood Thrush was correctly predicted in >70% of study sites by the biomass of calcium-rich prey, and in particular, the biomass of myriapods (Diplopoda. We show that a simple repeatable protocol, suitable for use by volunteers across broad geographic extents and ranges of habitat fragmentation, can help us understand the reactions of some forest birds to acid rain in combination with habitat fragmentation. We detail the development of this protocol for volunteers in the Birds in Forested Landscapes project, and describe future plans.

  6. Relative efficiency of joint-model and full-conditional-specification multiple imputation when conditional models are compatible: The general location model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaman, Shaun R; Hughes, Rachael A

    2016-09-05

    Estimating the parameters of a regression model of interest is complicated by missing data on the variables in that model. Multiple imputation is commonly used to handle these missing data. Joint model multiple imputation and full-conditional specification multiple imputation are known to yield imputed data with the same asymptotic distribution when the conditional models of full-conditional specification are compatible with that joint model. We show that this asymptotic equivalence of imputation distributions does not imply that joint model multiple imputation and full-conditional specification multiple imputation will also yield asymptotically equally efficient inference about the parameters of the model of interest, nor that they will be equally robust to misspecification of the joint model. When the conditional models used by full-conditional specification multiple imputation are linear, logistic and multinomial regressions, these are compatible with a restricted general location joint model. We show that multiple imputation using the restricted general location joint model can be substantially more asymptotically efficient than full-conditional specification multiple imputation, but this typically requires very strong associations between variables. When associations are weaker, the efficiency gain is small. Moreover, full-conditional specification multiple imputation is shown to be potentially much more robust than joint model multiple imputation using the restricted general location model to mispecification of that model when there is substantial missingness in the outcome variable. © The Author(s) 2016.

  7. Do laboratory species protect endangered species? Interspecies variation in responses to 17β-estradiol, a model endocrine active compound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorgenson, Zachary G.; Buhl, Kevin J.; Bartell, Stephen E.; Schoenfuss, Heiko L.

    2015-01-01

    Although the effects of estrogens on model laboratory species are well documented, their utility as surrogates for other species, including those listed as endangered, are less clear. Traditionally, conservation policies are evaluated based on model organism responses but are intended to protect all species in an environment. We tested the hypothesis that the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus) is more vulnerable to endocrine disruption—as assessed through its larval predator-escape performance, survival, juvenile sex ratios, and whole-body vitellogenin concentration—than the commonly used toxicological model species fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) and the bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus). Fish were exposed concurrently for 21 days to the model endocrine active compound (EAC) 17ß-estradiol (E2) at 10 ng E2/L and 30 ng E2/L in a flow-through system using reconstituted water that simulated the physicochemical conditions of the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico, USA. No significant differences were observed between the fathead and silvery minnow in larval predator-escape response or juvenile sex ratio. Rio Grande silvery minnow survival decreased significantly at day 14 compared with the other two species; by day 21, both cyprinid species (silvery minnow and fathead minnow) exhibited a significant decrease in survival compared with bluegill sunfish, a member of the family Centrarchidae. Male Rio Grande silvery minnow showed a significant increase in whole-body vitellogenin concentration in the 10 ng/L treatment, whereas fathead minnow and bluegill sunfish showed no significant increases in vitellogenin concentrations across treatments. Our study showed response differences to estrogen exposures between the two cyprinid species and further divergence in responses between the families Cyprinidae and Centrarchidae. These results suggest that commonly used laboratory model organisms may be less sensitive to EACs than the endangered

  8. Do laboratory species protect endangered species? Interspecies variation in responses to 17β-estradiol, a model endocrine active compound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorgenson, Z G; Buhl, K; Bartell, S E; Schoenfuss, H L

    2015-01-01

    Although the effects of estrogens on model laboratory species are well documented, their utility as surrogates for other species, including those listed as endangered, are less clear. Traditionally, conservation policies are evaluated based on model organism responses but are intended to protect all species in an environment. We tested the hypothesis that the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus) is more vulnerable to endocrine disruption-as assessed through its larval predator-escape performance, survival, juvenile sex ratios, and whole-body vitellogenin concentration-than the commonly used toxicological model species fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) and the bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus). Fish were exposed concurrently for 21 days to the model endocrine active compound (EAC) 17ß-estradiol (E2) at 10 ng E2/L and 30 ng E2/L in a flow-through system using reconstituted water that simulated the physicochemical conditions of the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico, USA. No significant differences were observed between the fathead and silvery minnow in larval predator-escape response or juvenile sex ratio. Rio Grande silvery minnow survival decreased significantly at day 14 compared with the other two species; by day 21, both cyprinid species (silvery minnow and fathead minnow) exhibited a significant decrease in survival compared with bluegill sunfish, a member of the family Centrarchidae. Male Rio Grande silvery minnow showed a significant increase in whole-body vitellogenin concentration in the 10 ng/L treatment, whereas fathead minnow and bluegill sunfish showed no significant increases in vitellogenin concentrations across treatments. Our study showed response differences to estrogen exposures between the two cyprinid species and further divergence in responses between the families Cyprinidae and Centrarchidae. These results suggest that commonly used laboratory model organisms may be less sensitive to EACs than the endangered Rio

  9. [Error structure and additivity of individual tree biomass model for four natural conifer species in Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogn, Li-hu; Li, Feng-ri; Song, Yu-wen

    2015-03-01

    Based on the biomass data of 276 sampling trees of Pinus koraiensis, Abies nephrolepis, Picea koraiensis and Larix gmelinii, the mono-element and dual-element additive system of biomass equations for the four conifer species was developed. The model error structure (additive vs. multiplicative) of the allometric equation was evaluated using the likelihood analysis, while nonlinear seemly unrelated regression was used to estimate the parameters in the additive system of biomass equations. The results indicated that the assumption of multiplicative error structure was strongly supported for the biomass equations of total and tree components for the four conifer species. Thus, the additive system of log-transformed biomass equations was developed. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra 2) of the additive system of biomass equations for the four conifer species was 0.85-0.99, the mean relative error was between -7.7% and 5.5%, and the mean absolute relative error was less than 30.5%. Adding total tree height in the additive systems of biomass equations could significantly improve model fitting performance and predicting precision, and the biomass equations of total, aboveground and stem were better than biomass equations of root, branch, foliage and crown. The precision of each biomass equation in the additive system varied from 77.0% to 99.7% with a mean value of 92.3% that would be suitable for predicting the biomass of the four natural conifer species.

  10. Modeling of CMUTs with Multiple Anisotropic Layers and Residual Stress

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engholm, Mathias; Thomsen, Erik Vilain

    2014-01-01

    Usually the analytical approach for modeling CMUTs uses the single layer plate equation to obtain the deflection and does not take anisotropy and residual stress into account. A highly accurate model is developed for analytical characterization of CMUTs taking an arbitrary number of layers...

  11. Maximizing Benefits through Simultaneous Compliance with Multiple Process Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    www.abridge-tech.com Example Reference Models CMMI-DEV CMMI-SVC CMMI-ACQ ISO 15504 ISO 9000 AS 9100 ISO 20000 Si Si ITIL x gma Malcolm Baldrige Slide #: 4...and safety Slide #: 6 rbechtold@abridge-tech.comAbridge Technology Abridge Technology www.abridge-tech.com Example Reference Models ITIL

  12. Modelling and control of broadband traffic using multiplicative ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The results of the detailed statistical and multifractal analysis performed on the original and the synthesised traces are presented and the performance is compared with other models in the literature, such as the Poisson process, and the Multifractal Wavelet Model (MWM) process. It is also shown empirically that a single ...

  13. Automated recovery of three-dimensional models of plant shoots from multiple color images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, Michael P; French, Andrew P; Murchie, Erik H; Pridmore, Tony P

    2014-12-01

    Increased adoption of the systems approach to biological research has focused attention on the use of quantitative models of biological objects. This includes a need for realistic three-dimensional (3D) representations of plant shoots for quantification and modeling. Previous limitations in single-view or multiple-view stereo algorithms have led to a reliance on volumetric methods or expensive hardware to record plant structure. We present a fully automatic approach to image-based 3D plant reconstruction that can be achieved using a single low-cost camera. The reconstructed plants are represented as a series of small planar sections that together model the more complex architecture of the leaf surfaces. The boundary of each leaf patch is refined using the level-set method, optimizing the model based on image information, curvature constraints, and the position of neighboring surfaces. The reconstruction process makes few assumptions about the nature of the plant material being reconstructed and, as such, is applicable to a wide variety of plant species and topologies and can be extended to canopy-scale imaging. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on data sets of wheat (Triticum aestivum) and rice (Oryza sativa) plants as well as a unique virtual data set that allows us to compute quantitative measures of reconstruction accuracy. The output is a 3D mesh structure that is suitable for modeling applications in a format that can be imported in the majority of 3D graphics and software packages. © 2014 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

  14. The Bifurcation and Control of a Single-Species Fish Population Logistic Model with the Invasion of Alien Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study systematically the bifurcation and control of a single-species fish population logistic model with the invasion of alien species based on the theory of singular system and bifurcation. It regards Spartina anglica as an invasive species, which invades the fisheries and aquaculture. Firstly, the stabilities of equilibria in this model are discussed. Moreover, the sufficient conditions for existence of the trans-critical bifurcation and the singularity induced bifurcation are obtained. Secondly, the state feedback controller is designed to eliminate the unexpected singularity induced bifurcation by combining harvested effort with the purification capacity. It obviously inhibits the switch of population and makes the system stable. Finally, the numerical simulation is proposed to show the practical significance of the bifurcation and control from the biological point of view.

  15. Model for Multiple Imputation to Estimate Daily Rainfall Data and Filling of Faults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Ruy Porto de Carvalho

    Full Text Available Abstract Modeling by multiple enchained imputation is an area of growing importance. However, its models and methods are frequently developed for specific applications. In this study the model for multiple imputation was used to estimate daily rainfall data. Daily precipitation records from several meteorological stations were used, obtained from system AGRITEMPO for two homogenous climatic zones. The precipitation values obtained for two dates (Jan. 20th 2005 and May 2nd 2005 using the multiple imputation model were compared with geo-statistics techniques ordinary Kriging and Co-kriging with the altitude as an auxiliary variable. The multiple imputation model was 16% better for the first zone and over 23% for the second one, compared to the rainfall estimation obtained by geo-statistical techniques. The model proved to be a versatile technique, presenting coherent results with the conditions of different zones and times.

  16. Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proosdij, van A.S.J.; Sosef, M.S.M.; Wieringa, J.J.; Raes, N.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the occurrence of species. Because SDMs generally use presence-only data, validation of the predicted distribution and assessing model accuracy is challenging. Model performance depends on both sample size and species’ prevalence, being

  17. Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proosdij, van A.S.J.; Sosef, M.S.M.; Wieringa, Jan; Raes, N.

    2015-01-01

    Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the occurrence of species. Because SDMs generally use presence-only data, validation of the predicted distribution and assessing model accuracy is challenging. Model performance depends on both sample size and species’ prevalence, being

  18. Current state of the art for statistical modeling of species distributions [Chapter 16

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy M. Hegel; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeffrey Evans; Falk Huettmann

    2010-01-01

    Over the past decade the number of statistical modelling tools available to ecologists to model species' distributions has increased at a rapid pace (e.g. Elith et al. 2006; Austin 2007), as have the number of species distribution models (SDM) published in the literature (e.g. Scott et al. 2002). Ten years ago, basic logistic regression (Hosmer and Lemeshow 2000)...

  19. Estimating the footprint of pollution on coral reefs with models of species turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Christopher J; Hamilton, Richard J

    2018-01-15

    Ecological communities typically change along gradients of human impact, although it is difficult to estimate the footprint of impacts for diffuse threats such as pollution. We developed a joint model (i.e., one that includes multiple species and their interactions with each other and environmental covariates) of benthic habitats on lagoonal coral reefs and used it to infer change in benthic composition along a gradient of distance from logging operations. The model estimated both changes in abundances of benthic groups and their compositional turnover, a type of beta diversity. We used the model to predict the footprint of turbidity impacts from past and recent logging. Benthic communities far from logging were dominated by branching corals, whereas communities close to logging had higher cover of dead coral, massive corals, and soft sediment. Recent impacts were predicted to be small relative to the extensive impacts of past logging because recent logging has occurred far from lagoonal reefs. Our model can be used more generally to estimate the footprint of human impacts on ecosystems and evaluate the benefits of conservation actions for ecosystems. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Knowledge representation to support reasoning based on multiple models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillam, April; Seidel, Jorge P.; Parker, Alice C.

    1990-01-01

    Model Based Reasoning is a powerful tool used to design and analyze systems, which are often composed of numerous interactive, interrelated subsystems. Models of the subsystems are written independently and may be used together while they are still under development. Thus the models are not static. They evolve as information becomes obsolete, as improved artifact descriptions are developed, and as system capabilities change. Researchers are using three methods to support knowledge/data base growth, to track the model evolution, and to handle knowledge from diverse domains. First, the representation methodology is based on having pools, or types, of knowledge from which each model is constructed. In addition information is explicit. This includes the interactions between components, the description of the artifact structure, and the constraints and limitations of the models. The third principle we have followed is the separation of the data and knowledge from the inferencing and equation solving mechanisms. This methodology is used in two distinct knowledge-based systems: one for the design of space systems and another for the synthesis of VLSI circuits. It has facilitated the growth and evolution of our models, made accountability of results explicit, and provided credibility for the user community. These capabilities have been implemented and are being used in actual design projects.

  1. A comparison of two stomatal conductance models for ozone flux modelling using data from two Brassica species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Op de Beeck, M., E-mail: maarten.opdebeeck@ua.ac.b [Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerp, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Universiteitsplein 1, 2160 Wilrijk (Belgium); De Bock, M., E-mail: maarten.debock@ua.ac.b [Research Group of Molecular Plant Physiology and Biotechnology, University of Antwerp, Campus Groenenborger, Department of Biology, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerpen (Belgium); Vandermeiren, K., E-mail: kavan@var.fgov.b [Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre (VAR), Leuvensesteenweg 17, 3080 Tervuren (Belgium); Temmerman, L. de, E-mail: ludet@var.fgov.b [Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre (VAR), Leuvensesteenweg 17, 3080 Tervuren (Belgium); Ceulemans, R., E-mail: reinhart.ceulemans@ua.ac.b [Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerp, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Universiteitsplein 1, 2160 Wilrijk (Belgium)

    2010-10-15

    In this study we tested and compared a multiplicative stomatal model and a coupled semi-empirical stomatal-photosynthesis model in their ability to predict stomatal conductance to ozone (g{sub st}) using leaf-level data from oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) and broccoli (Brassica oleracea L. var. italica Plenck). For oilseed rape, the multiplicative model and the coupled model were able to explain 72% and 73% of the observed g{sub st} variance, respectively. For broccoli, the models were able to explain 53% and 51% of the observed g{sub st} variance, respectively. These results support the coupled semi-empirical stomatal-photosynthesis model as a valid alternative to the multiplicative stomatal model for O{sub 3} flux modelling, in terms of predictive performance. - A multiplicative stomatal model and a coupled semi-empirical stomatal-photosynthesis model performed equally well when tested against leaf-level data for oilseed rape and broccoli.

  2. Cosmological solutions in multidimensional model with multiple exponential potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivashchuk, Vladimir D.; Melnikov, Vitaly N.; Selivanov, Alexey B.

    2003-01-01

    A family of cosmological solutions with (n+1) Ricci-flat spaces in the theory with several scalar fields and multiple exponential potential is obtained when coupling vectors in exponents obey certain relations. Two subclasses of solutions with power-law and exponential behaviour of scale factors are singled out. It is proved that power-law solutions may take place only when coupling vectors are linearly independent and exponential dependence occurs for linearly dependent set of coupling vectors. A subfamily of solutions with accelerated expansion is singled out. A generalized isotropization behaviours of certain classes of general solutions are found. In quantum case exact solutions to Wheeler-DeWitt equation are obtained and special 'ground state' wave functions are considered. (author)

  3. Wavelet Network Model Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Forecasting Temperature Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Jian; Yang, Xiao-hua; Chen, Xiao-juan

    2015-01-01

    Due to nonlinear and multiscale characteristics of temperature time series, a new model called wavelet network model based on multiple criteria decision making (WNMCDM) has been proposed, which combines the advantage of wavelet analysis, multiple criteria decision making, and artificial neural network. One case for forecasting extreme monthly maximum temperature of Miyun Reservoir has been conducted to examine the performance of WNMCDM model. Compared with nearest neighbor bootstrapping regr...

  4. Phenolphthalein exposure causes multiple carcinogenic effects in experimental model systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunnick, J K; Hailey, J R

    1996-11-01

    Phenolphthalein (a triphenylmethane derivative) has been commonly used as a laxative for most of the twentieth century, but little is known about its long-term carcinogenic potential in experimental studies. In our studies, phenolphthalein administered continuously in the feed for 2 years to F344 rats at doses of 0, 12,500, 25,000, and 50,000 ppm and to C57BL/6 x CH3 F1 (hereafter called B6C3F1) mice at doses of 0, 3,000, 6,000, and 12,000 ppm caused multiple carcinogenic effects. Treatment-related neoplasms occurred in the kidney and adrenal medulla in male rats, adrenal medulla in female rats, hematopoietic system in male and female mice (histiocytic sarcomas and malignant lymphomas), and ovary of female mice. Phenolphthalein has been shown to have estrogenic and clastogenic properties. Previous studies of other estrogenic chemicals (e.g., zearalenone) in the F344 rat and B6C3F1 mouse have not shown the same spectrum of carcinogenic activity as that found with phenolphthalein, suggesting that phenolphthalein estrogenic activity alone is not responsible for the spectrum of tumors observed. It is more likely that the multiple biological properties of phenolphthalein, including its ability to form free radicals, its clastogenic activity, and its estrogenic activity, contributed to the carcinogenic effects observed. These studies show that phenolphthalein is a multisite/multispecies carcinogen. One of the sites for neoplasm that is of particular concern is the ovary, and epidemiology studies are under way to identify any potential effects of phenolphthalein exposure at this site in humans.

  5. Exploring the Use of Multiple Analogical Models when Teaching and Learning Chemical Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Allan G.; De Jong, Onno

    2005-01-01

    This study describes the multiple analogical models used to introduce and teach Grade 12 chemical equilibrium. We examine the teacher's reasons for using models, explain each model's development during the lessons, and analyze the understandings students derived from the models. A case study approach was used and the data were drawn from the…

  6. Species distribution modeling in the tropics: problems, potentialities, and the role of biological data for effective species conservation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cayuela, L.; Golicher, J.D.; Newton, A.C.; Kolb, M.; Alburquerque, de F.S.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Pérez, A.M.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we aim to investigate the problems and potentialities of species distribution modeling (SDM) as a tool for conservation planning and policy development and implementation in tropical regions. We reviewed 123 studies published between 1995 and 2007 in five of the leading journals in

  7. A heart model with multiple chambers for myocardial scintigraphy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretschner, D.P.; Hundeshagen, H.

    1980-01-01

    A heart model is portrayed which consists from individual segments to be filled with activity. The mechanics allow to vary the position in order to generate different positions for evaluation of the scintigraphic systems performance. (orig.) [de

  8. Modeling of plates with multiple anisotropic layers and residual stress

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engholm, Mathias; Pedersen, Thomas; Thomsen, Erik Vilain

    2016-01-01

    , and an excellent agreement between the two models is seen with a relative difference of less than 2% for all calculations. The model was also used to extract the cell capacitance, the parasitic capacitance and the residual stress of a pressure sensor composed of a multilayered plate of silicon and silicon oxide....... The extracted values were in good agreement with the expected and it showed that the behavior of devices with a plate could easily be predicted with a low uncertainty....

  9. Model-based monitoring of rotors with multiple coexisting faults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossner, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring systems are applied to many rotors, but only few monitoring systems can separate coexisting errors and identify their quantity. This research project solves this problem using a combination of signal-based and model-based monitoring. The signal-based part performs a pre-selection of possible errors; these errors are further separated with model-based methods. This approach is demonstrated for the errors unbalance, bow, stator-fixed misalignment, rotor-fixed misalignment and roundness errors. For the model-based part, unambiguous error definitions and models are set up. The Ritz approach reduces the model order and therefore speeds up the diagnosis. Identification algorithms are developed for the different rotor faults. Hereto, reliable damage indicators and proper sub steps of the diagnosis have to be defined. For several monitoring problems, measuring both deflection and bearing force is very useful. The monitoring system is verified by experiments on an academic rotor test rig. The interpretation of the measurements requires much knowledge concerning the dynamics of the rotor. Due to the model-based approach, the system can separate errors with similar signal patterns and identify bow and roundness error online at operation speed. [de

  10. Topographic variables improve climate models of forage species abundance in the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Species distribution modeling has most commonly been applied to presence-only data and to woody species, but detailed predicted abundance maps for forage species would be of great value for agricultural management and land use planning. We used field data from 107 farms across the northeastern Unite...

  11. Wet thermal accumulation modeling of germination of western U.S. rangeland species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Rawlins

    2009-01-01

    The key to stopping high-frequency or catastrophic wildfires in the western U.S. is the successful restoration of burned lands to native plant communities. Developing models of establishment for invasive and native species will help in the selection of species for restoration projects that are able to establish and compete with invasive species given the abiotic...

  12. Solvable Catalyzed Birth-Death-Exchange Competition Model of Three Species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Haifeng; Gao Yan; Zhang Heng; Lin Zhenquan

    2009-01-01

    A competition model of three species in exchange-driven aggregation growth is proposed. In the model, three distinct aggregates grow by exchange of monomers and in parallel, birth of species A is catalyzed by species B and death of species A is catalyzed by species C. The rates for both catalysis processes are proportional to kj ν and kj ω respectively, where ν(Ω) is a parameter reflecting the dependence of the catalysis reaction rate of birth (death) on the catalyst aggregate's size. The kinetic evolution behaviors of the three species are investigated by the rate equation approach based on the mean-field theory. The form of the aggregate size distribution of A-species a k (t) is found to be dependent crucially on the two catalysis rate kernel parameters. The results show that (i) in case of μ ≤ 0, the form of a k (t) mainly depends on the competition between self-exchange of species A and species-C-catalyzed death of species A; (ii) in case of ν > 0, the form of a k (t) mainly depends on the competition between species-B-catalyzed birth of species A and species-C-catalyzed death of species A. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  13. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  14. A measurement model of multiple intelligence profiles of management graduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Heamalatha; Awang, Siti Rahmah

    2017-05-01

    In this study, developing a fit measurement model and identifying the best fitting items to represent Howard Gardner's nine intelligences namely, musical intelligence, bodily-kinaesthetic intelligence, mathematical/logical intelligence, visual/spatial intelligence, verbal/linguistic intelligence, interpersonal intelligence, intrapersonal intelligence, naturalist intelligence and spiritual intelligence are the main interest in order to enhance the opportunities of the management graduates for employability. In order to develop a fit measurement model, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was applied. A psychometric test which is the Ability Test in Employment (ATIEm) was used as the instrument to measure the existence of nine types of intelligence of 137 University Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (UTeM) management graduates for job placement purposes. The initial measurement model contains nine unobserved variables and each unobserved variable is measured by ten observed variables. Finally, the modified measurement model deemed to improve the Normed chi-square (NC) = 1.331; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.940 and Root Mean Square of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.049 was developed. The findings showed that the UTeM management graduates possessed all nine intelligences either high or low. Musical intelligence, mathematical/logical intelligence, naturalist intelligence and spiritual intelligence contributed highest loadings on certain items. However, most of the intelligences such as bodily kinaesthetic intelligence, visual/spatial intelligence, verbal/linguistic intelligence interpersonal intelligence and intrapersonal intelligence possessed by UTeM management graduates are just at the borderline.

  15. Procedural Modeling for Rapid-Prototyping of Multiple Building Phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldana, M.; Johanson, C.

    2013-02-01

    RomeLab is a multidisciplinary working group at UCLA that uses the city of Rome as a laboratory for the exploration of research approaches and dissemination practices centered on the intersection of space and time in antiquity. In this paper we present a multiplatform workflow for the rapid-prototyping of historical cityscapes through the use of geographic information systems, procedural modeling, and interactive game development. Our workflow begins by aggregating archaeological data in a GIS database. Next, 3D building models are generated from the ArcMap shapefiles in Esri CityEngine using procedural modeling techniques. A GIS-based terrain model is also adjusted in CityEngine to fit the building elevations. Finally, the terrain and city models are combined in Unity, a game engine which we used to produce web-based interactive environments which are linked to the GIS data using keyhole markup language (KML). The goal of our workflow is to demonstrate that knowledge generated within a first-person virtual world experience can inform the evaluation of data derived from textual and archaeological sources, and vice versa.

  16. New Hybrid Variational Recovery Model for Blurred Images with Multiplicative Noise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yiqiu; Zeng, Tieyong

    2013-01-01

    of the solution and the stability of the algorithm. A split-Bregman algorithm is adopted to solve the constrained minimisation problem in the new hybrid model efficiently. Numerical tests for simultaneous deblurring and denoising of the images subject to multiplicative noise are then reported. Comparison......A new hybrid variational model for recovering blurred images in the presence of multiplicative noise is proposed. Inspired by previous work on multiplicative noise removal, an I-divergence technique is used to build a strictly convex model under a condition that ensures the uniqueness...

  17. A model of human decision making in multiple process monitoring situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenstein, J. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1982-01-01

    Human decision making in multiple process monitoring situations is considered. It is proposed that human decision making in many multiple process monitoring situations can be modeled in terms of the human's detection of process related events and his allocation of attention among processes once he feels event have occurred. A mathematical model of human event detection and attention allocation performance in multiple process monitoring situations is developed. An assumption made in developing the model is that, in attempting to detect events, the human generates estimates of the probabilities that events have occurred. An elementary pattern recognition technique, discriminant analysis, is used to model the human's generation of these probability estimates. The performance of the model is compared to that of four subjects in a multiple process monitoring situation requiring allocation of attention among processes.

  18. Modeling disease severity in multiple sclerosis using electronic health records.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongqi Xia

    Full Text Available To optimally leverage the scalability and unique features of the electronic health records (EHR for research that would ultimately improve patient care, we need to accurately identify patients and extract clinically meaningful measures. Using multiple sclerosis (MS as a proof of principle, we showcased how to leverage routinely collected EHR data to identify patients with a complex neurological disorder and derive an important surrogate measure of disease severity heretofore only available in research settings.In a cross-sectional observational study, 5,495 MS patients were identified from the EHR systems of two major referral hospitals using an algorithm that includes codified and narrative information extracted using natural language processing. In the subset of patients who receive neurological care at a MS Center where disease measures have been collected, we used routinely collected EHR data to extract two aggregate indicators of MS severity of clinical relevance multiple sclerosis severity score (MSSS and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF, a measure of whole brain volume.The EHR algorithm that identifies MS patients has an area under the curve of 0.958, 83% sensitivity, 92% positive predictive value, and 89% negative predictive value when a 95% specificity threshold is used. The correlation between EHR-derived and true MSSS has a mean R(2 = 0.38±0.05, and that between EHR-derived and true BPF has a mean R(2 = 0.22±0.08. To illustrate its clinical relevance, derived MSSS captures the expected difference in disease severity between relapsing-remitting and progressive MS patients after adjusting for sex, age of symptom onset and disease duration (p = 1.56×10(-12.Incorporation of sophisticated codified and narrative EHR data accurately identifies MS patients and provides estimation of a well-accepted indicator of MS severity that is widely used in research settings but not part of the routine medical records. Similar approaches

  19. The use of multiple models in case-based diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamouzis, Stamos T.; Feyock, Stefan

    1993-01-01

    The work described in this paper has as its goal the integration of a number of reasoning techniques into a unified intelligent information system that will aid flight crews with malfunction diagnosis and prognostication. One of these approaches involves using the extensive archive of information contained in aircraft accident reports along with various models of the aircraft as the basis for case-based reasoning about malfunctions. Case-based reasoning draws conclusions on the basis of similarities between the present situation and prior experience. We maintain that the ability of a CBR program to reason about physical systems is significantly enhanced by the addition to the CBR program of various models. This paper describes the diagnostic concepts implemented in a prototypical case based reasoner that operates in the domain of in-flight fault diagnosis, the various models used in conjunction with the reasoner's CBR component, and results from a preliminary evaluation.

  20. Semantics of Temporal Models with Multiple Temporal Dimensions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraft, Peter; Sørensen, Jens Otto

    ending up with lexical data models. In particular we look upon the representations by sets of normalised tables, by sets of 1NF tables and by sets of N1NF/nested tables. At each translation step we focus on how the temporal semantic is consistently maintained. In this way we recognise the requirements...... for representation of temporal properties in different models and the correspondence between the models. The results rely on the assumptions that the temporal dimensions are interdependent and ordered. Thus for example the valid periods of existences of a property in a mini world are dependent on the transaction...... periods in which the corresponding recordings are valid. This is not the normal way of looking at temporal dimensions and we give arguments supporting our assumption....

  1. Modeling Customer Lifetimes with Multiple Causes of Churn

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Braun; David A. Schweidel

    2011-01-01

    Customer retention and customer churn are key metrics of interest to marketers, but little attention has been placed on linking the different reasons for which customers churn to their value to a contractual service provider. In this paper, we put forth a hierarchical competing-risk model to jointly model when customers choose to terminate their service and why. Some of these reasons for churn can be influenced by the firm (e.g., service problems or price–value trade-offs), but others are unc...

  2. Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

    2002-05-13

    Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers

  3. Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

    2002-01-01

    Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers can schedule other events; create or remove Entities from the

  4. Multiple Model Adaptive Control Using Dual Youla-Kucera Factorisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    We propose a multi-model adaptive control scheme for uncertain linear plants based on the concept of model unfalsification. The approach relies on examining the ability of a pre-computed set of plant-controller candidates and choosing the one that is best able to reproduce observed in- and output...... signal samples. The ability to reproduce observations is measured as an easily computable signal norm. Compared to other related approaches, our procedure is designed to be able to handle significant measurement noise and closed-loop correlations between output measurements and control signals....

  5. Multiple sclerosis care: an integrated disease-management model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burks, J

    1998-04-01

    A disease-management model must be integrated, comprehensive, individual patient focused and outcome driven. In addition to high quality care, the successful model must reduce variations in care and costs. MS specialists need to be intimately involved in the long-term care of MS patients, while not neglecting primary care issues. A nurse care manager is the "glue" between the managed care company, health care providers and the patient/family. Disease management focuses on education and prevention, and can be cost effective as well as patient specific. To implement a successful program, managed care companies and health care providers must work together.

  6. Multiple translocation of the AVR-Pita effector gene among chromosomes of the rice blast fungus Magnaporthe oryzae and related species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izumi Chuma

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Magnaporthe oryzae is the causal agent of rice blast disease, a devastating problem worldwide. This fungus has caused breakdown of resistance conferred by newly developed commercial cultivars. To address how the rice blast fungus adapts itself to new resistance genes so quickly, we examined chromosomal locations of AVR-Pita, a subtelomeric gene family corresponding to the Pita resistance gene, in various isolates of M. oryzae (including wheat and millet pathogens and its related species. We found that AVR-Pita (AVR-Pita1 and AVR-Pita2 is highly variable in its genome location, occurring in chromosomes 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and supernumerary chromosomes, particularly in rice-infecting isolates. When expressed in M. oryzae, most of the AVR-Pita homologs could elicit Pita-mediated resistance, even those from non-rice isolates. AVR-Pita was flanked by a retrotransposon, which presumably contributed to its multiple translocation across the genome. On the other hand, family member AVR-Pita3, which lacks avirulence activity, was stably located on chromosome 7 in a vast majority of isolates. These results suggest that the diversification in genome location of AVR-Pita in the rice isolates is a consequence of recognition by Pita in rice. We propose a model that the multiple translocation of AVR-Pita may be associated with its frequent loss and recovery mediated by its transfer among individuals in asexual populations. This model implies that the high mobility of AVR-Pita is a key mechanism accounting for the rapid adaptation toward Pita. Dynamic adaptation of some fungal plant pathogens may be achieved by deletion and recovery of avirulence genes using a population as a unit of adaptation.

  7. Past and present potential distribution of the Iberian Abies species: A phytogeographic approach using pollen data and species distribution models

    OpenAIRE

    López-Sáez, JA; Benito de Pando, B; Linares, JC; Nieto-Lugilde, D; López-Merino, L

    2010-01-01

    This is the accepted version of the following article: Alba-Sánchez, F., López-Sáez, J. A., Pando, B. B.-d., Linares, J. C., Nieto-Lugilde, D. and López-Merino, L. (2010), Past and present potential distribution of the Iberian Abies species: a phytogeographic approach using fossil pollen data and species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions, 16: 214–228, which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00636.x/abstract. Aim -...

  8. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian W. Miller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM. SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis. We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

  9. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W.; Frid, Leonardo; Chang, Tony; Piekielek, N. B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2015-01-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae), and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

  10. Connectivity and conditional models of access and abundance of species in stream networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelgren, Nathan D; Dunham, Jason B

    2015-07-01

    Barriers to passage of aquatic organisms at stream road crossings are a major cause of habitat fragmentation in stream networks. Accordingly, large investments have been made to restore passage at these crossings, but often without estimation of population-level benefits. Here, we describe a broad-scale approach to quantifying the effectiveness of passage restoration in terms interpretable at population levels, namely numbers of fish and length of stream gained through restoration, by sampling abundance in a study design that accounts for variable biogeographic species pools, variable stream and barrier configurations, and variable probabilities of capture and detectability for multiple species. We modified an existing zero-inflated negative-binomial model to estimate the probability of site access, abundance conditional on access, and capture probability of individual fish. Therein, we modeled probability of access as a function of gradient, stream road-crossing type, and downstream access by fish simultaneously with a predictive model for abundance at sites accessible to fish. Results indicated that replacement of barriers with new crossing designs intended to allow for greater movement was associated with dramatically higher probability of access for all fishes, including migratory Pacific salmon, trout, sculpin, and lamprey. Conversely, existing non-replaced crossings negatively impacted fish distributions. Assuming no downstream constraints on access, we estimated the potential length of stream restored by the program ranged between 7.33 (lamprey) and 15.28 km (small coastal cutthroat and rainbow trout). These contributions represented a fraction of the total length available upstream (187 km) of replaced crossings. When limited ranges of species were considered, the estimated contributions of culvert replacement were reduced (1.65-km range, for longnose dace to 12.31 km for small coastal cutthroat and rainbow trout). Numbers of fish contributed ranged from

  11. Modeling of Optimal Power Generation using Multiple Kites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Williams, P.; Lansdorp, B.; Ockels, W.J.

    2008-01-01

    Kite systems have the potential to revolutionize energy generation. Large scale systems are envisioned that can fly autonomously in “power generation” cycles which drive a ground-based generator. In order for such systems to produce power efficiently, good models of the system are required. This

  12. A semianalytic model for the productivity testing of multiple wells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fokker, P.A.; Verga, F.

    2008-01-01

    We present a semianalytic method for modeling the productivity testing of vertical, horizontal, slanted, or multilateral wells. The method is applicable to both oil and gas reservoirs and automatically accounts for well interference. The use of analytic expressions ensures that short-time transient

  13. A multiple-compartment model for biokinetics studies in plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Fermin; Pietrobron, Flavio; Fonseca, Agnes M.F.; Mol, Anderson W.; Rodriguez, Oscar; Guzman, Fernando

    2001-01-01

    In the present work is used the system of linear equations based in the general Assimakopoulos's GMCM model , for the development of a new method that will determine the flow's parameters and transfer coefficients in plants. The need of mathematical models to quantify the penetration of a trace substance in animals and plants, has often been stressed in the literature. Usually, in radiological environment studies, it is used the mean value of contaminant concentrations on whole or edible part plant body, without taking in account vegetable physiology regularities. In this work concepts and mathematical formulation of a Vegetable Multi-compartment Model (VMCM), taking into account the plant's physiology regularities is presented. The model based in general ideas of the GMCM , and statistical Square Minimum Method STATFLUX is proposed to use in inverse sense: the experimental time dependence of concentration in each compartment, should be input, and the parameters should be determined from this data in a statistical approach. The case of Uranium metabolism is discussed. (author)

  14. Multiple Linear Regression Model for Estimating the Price of a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... In the modeling, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) normality assumption which could introduce errors in the statistical analyses was dealt with by log transformation of the data, ensuring the data is normally ... The resultant MLRM is: Ŷi MLRM = (X'X)-1X'Y(xi') where X is the sample data matrix.

  15. Usefulness of bioclimatic models for studying climate change and invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeschke, Jonathan M; Strayer, David L

    2008-01-01

    Bioclimatic models (also known as envelope models or, more broadly, ecological niche models or species distribution models) are used to predict geographic ranges of organisms as a function of climate. They are widely used to forecast range shifts of organisms due to climate change, predict the eventual ranges of invasive species, infer paleoclimate from data on species occurrences, and so forth. Several statistical techniques (including general linear models, general additive models, climate envelope models, classification and regression trees, and genetic algorithms) have been used in bioclimatic modeling. Recently developed techniques tend to perform better than older techniques, although it is unlikely that any single statistical approach will be optimal for all applications and species. Proponents of bioclimatic models have stressed their apparent predictive power, whereas opponents have identified the following unreasonable model assumptions: biotic interactions are unimportant in determining geographic ranges or are constant over space and time; the genetic and phenotypic composition of species is constant over space and time; and species are unlimited in their dispersal. In spite of these problematic assumptions, bioclimatic models often successfully fit present-day ranges of species. Their ability to forecast the effects of climate change or the spread of invaders has rarely been tested adequately, however, and we urge researchers to tie the evaluation of bioclimatic models more closely to their intended uses.

  16. On the thermoluminescent interactive multiple-trap system (IMTS) model: is it a simple model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gil T, M. I.; Perez C, L.; Cruz Z, E.; Furetta, C.; Roman L, J.

    2016-10-01

    In the thermally stimulated luminescence phenomenon, named thermoluminescence (Tl), the electrons and holes generated by the radiation-matter interaction can be trapped by the metastable levels in the band gap of the solid. Following, the electron can be thermally releases into the conduction band and a radiatively recombination with hole close to the recombination center occurred and the glow curve is emitted. However, the complex mechanism of trapping and thermally releases occurred in the band gap of solid. Some models, such as; first, second and general-order kinetics, have been well established to explain the behaviour of the glow curves and their defects recombination mechanism. In this work, expressions for and Interactive Multiple-Trap System model (IMTS) was obtained assuming: a set of discrete electron traps (active traps At), another set of thermally disconnected trap (TDT) and a recombination center (Rc) too. A numerical analysis based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method in conjunction with an implicit Rosenbrock method was taken into account to simulate the glow curve. The numerical method was tested through synthetic Tl glow curves for a wide range of trap parameters. The activation energy and kinetics order were determined using values from the General Order Kinetics (GOK) model as entry data to IMTS model. This model was tested using the experimental glow curves obtained from Ce or Eu-doped MgF 2 (LiF) polycrystals samples. Results shown that the IMTS model can predict more accurately the behavior of the Tl glow curves that those obtained by the GOK modified by Rasheedy and by the Mixed Order Kinetics model. (Author)

  17. On the thermoluminescent interactive multiple-trap system (IMTS) model: is it a simple model?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gil T, M. I.; Perez C, L. [UNAM, Facultad de Quimica, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico); Cruz Z, E.; Furetta, C.; Roman L, J., E-mail: ecruz@nucleares.unam.mx [UNAM, Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico)

    2016-10-15

    In the thermally stimulated luminescence phenomenon, named thermoluminescence (Tl), the electrons and holes generated by the radiation-matter interaction can be trapped by the metastable