WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling long-term risk

  1. Long-term Failure Prediction based on an ARP Model of Global Risk Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    Risks that threaten modern societies form an intricately interconnected network. Hence, it is important to understand how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. In the paper, we study the global risks network defined by World Economic Forum experts in the form of Stochastic Block Model. We model risks as Alternating Renewal Processes with variable intensities driven by hidden values of exogenous and endogenous failure probabilities. Based on the expert assessments and historical status of each risk, we use Maximum Likelihood Evaluation to find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model considering network effects significantly outperforms the others. In the talk, we discuss how the model can be used to provide quantitative means for measuring interdependencies and materialization of risks in the network. We also present recent results of long-term predictions in the form of predicated distributions of materializations over various time periods. Finally we show how the simulation of ARP's enables us to probe limits of the predictability of the system parameters from historical data and ability to recover hidden variable. Supported in part by DTRA, ARL NS-CTA.

  2. Long-term dynamics simulation: Modeling requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morched, A.S.; Kar, P.K.; Rogers, G.J.; Morison, G.K. (Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada))

    1989-12-01

    This report details the required performance and modelling capabilities of a computer program intended for the study of the long term dynamics of power systems. Following a general introduction which outlines the need for long term dynamic studies, the modelling requirements for the conduct of such studies is discussed in detail. Particular emphasis is placed on models for system elements not normally modelled in power system stability programs, which will have a significant impact in the long term time frame of minutes to hours following the initiating disturbance. The report concludes with a discussion of the special computational and programming requirements for a long term stability program. 43 refs., 36 figs.

  3. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  4. Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Revoltella

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The private sector has used proxies such as sovereign credit ratings, spreads on sovereign bonds and spreads on sovereign credit default swaps (CDS to gauge country risk, even though these measures are pricing the risk of default of government bonds, which is different from the risks facing private participants in cross-border financing. Under normal market conditions, the CDS spreads are a very useful source of information on country risk. However, the recent crisis has shown that the CDS spreads might lead to some underpricing or overpricing of fundamentals in the case of excessively low or excessively high risk aversion. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of country risk that extracts the volatile, short-term market sentiment component from the sover eign CDS spread in order to improve its reliability in periods of market distress. We show that adverse market sentiment was a key driver of the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spreads of central and eastern European (CEE countries during the most severe phase of the crisis. We also show that our measure of country risk sheds some light on the observed stability of cross-border bank flows to CEE banks during the crisis.

  5. Long-term experiences with pluvial flood risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fritsch Kathrina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The awareness of pluvial (rain-related flood risk has grown significantly in the past few years but pluvial flooding is not handled with the same intensity throughout Europe. A variety of methods and modelling technologies are used to assess pluvial flood hazard and risk and to develop suggestions for flood mitigation measures. A brief overview of current model approaches is followed by the description of a modelling methodology that has been developed throughout the last 15 years with the focus on processing large scale areas. Experiences from several projects show that only high quality models of whole catchment areas yield results with enough accuracy to gain credibility among stakeholders, planners and the public. As a best practice example shows, the model approach also helps to plan effective decentral flood protection measures. To ensure successful flood risk management, a long-term preservation of flood risk awareness among local authorities and the public is necessary.

  6. Modelo de previsão de value at risk utilizando volatilidade de longo prazo = Value at Risk prediction model using long term volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Tendo em vista a importância do Value at Risk (VaR como medida de risco para instituições financeiras e agências de risco, o presente estudo avaliou se o modelo ARLS é mais preciso no cálculo do VaR de longo prazo que os modelos tradicionais, dada sua maior adequação para a previsão da volatilidade. Considerando a utilização do VaR pelos agentes de mercado como medida de risco para o gerenciamento de portfólios é importante sua adequada mensuração. A partir de dados diários dos mercados de ações e cambial dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul foram calculadas as volatilidades futuras para 15 dias, 1 mês e 3 meses. Em seguida, calculou-se as medidas tradicionais de avaliação da precisão do VaR. Os resultados sugerem a superioridade do modelo ARLS para a previsão da volatilidade cambial, capaz de prever corretamente o número de violações em 33% dos casos, enquanto os modelos tradicionais não obtiveram um bom desempenho. Com relação ao mercado acionário, os modelos GARCH e ARLS apresentaram desempenho similar. O modelo GARCH é superior considerando a perda média quadrática. Esses resultados apontam para a escolha do modelo ARLS no cálculo do VaR de portfólios cambiais devido a maior precisão alcançada. Ajuda assim os agentes de mercado a melhor gerirem o risco de suas carteiras. Em relação ao mercado acionário, em função do desempenho similar dos modelos GARCH e ARLS, o modelo GARCH é o mais indicado devido a sua maior simplicidade e fácil implementação computacional. Having in mind the importance of Value at Risk (VaR as a risk measure for financial institutions and rating agencies, this study evaluated whether the ARLS model is more accurate in the calculation of the long term VaR than the traditional models, considering it is more appropriate for predicting the long-term volatility. Due to the fact that VaR s being used for market players as a measure of risk for the portfolio

  7. Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, D.D.; Kirchner, T.B.; Whicker, J.J.; Field, J.P.; Allen, C.D.

    2012-01-01

    Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies. ?? 2011.

  8. [Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

    2012-05-01

    This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented.

  9. Modeling Maintenance of Long-Term Potentiation in Clustered Synapses: Long-Term Memory without Bistability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Memories are stored, at least partly, as patterns of strong synapses. Given molecular turnover, how can synapses maintain strong for the years that memories can persist? Some models postulate that biochemical bistability maintains strong synapses. However, bistability should give a bimodal distribution of synaptic strength or weight, whereas current data show unimodal distributions for weights and for a correlated variable, dendritic spine volume. Thus it is important for models to simulate both unimodal distributions and long-term memory persistence. Here a model is developed that connects ongoing, competing processes of synaptic growth and weakening to stochastic processes of receptor insertion and removal in dendritic spines. The model simulates long-term (>1 yr persistence of groups of strong synapses. A unimodal weight distribution results. For stability of this distribution it proved essential to incorporate resource competition between synapses organized into small clusters. With competition, these clusters are stable for years. These simulations concur with recent data to support the “clustered plasticity hypothesis” which suggests clusters, rather than single synaptic contacts, may be a fundamental unit for storage of long-term memory. The model makes empirical predictions and may provide a framework to investigate mechanisms maintaining the balance between synaptic plasticity and stability of memory.

  10. TANK S-109 LONG TERM HUMAN HEALTH RISK CALCULATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CARLSON, S.E.

    2003-12-16

    This document provides Tank S-109 long-term human risks calculations, in support of Functions and Requirements document (RPP-18812) as required by milestone M-45-00 of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order. This calculation was performed to provide a screening-level assessment of long-term human health risk associated with potential leakage that could occur during waste retrieval operations for tank S-109 This calculation supports the development of tank S-109 waste retrieval functions and requirements as documented in RPP-18812. Risks associated with current waste and potential residual waste in tank S-109, as well as risk associated with other S farm tanks, were not of interest and were not evaluated.

  11. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Long-Term Coffee Consumption and Risk of Gastric Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Shao-Bo; Weng, Hong; Zhou, Meng; Duan, Xiao-Li; Shen, Xian-Feng; Zeng, Xian-Tao

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Association between coffee consumption and gastric cancer risk remains controversial. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate and quantify the potential dose–response association between long-term coffee consumption and risk of gastric cancer. Pertinent studies were identified by searching PubMed and Embase from January 1996 through February 10, 2015 and by reviewing the reference lists of retrieved publications. Prospective cohort studies in which authors reported effect sizes and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gastric cancer for 3 or more categories of coffee consumption were eligible. Results from eligible studies were aggregated using a random effect model. All analyses were carried out using the STATA 12.0 software. Nine studies involving 15 independent prospective cohorts were finally included. A total of 2019 incident cases of gastric cancer were ascertained among 1,289,314 participants with mean follow-up periods ranging from 8 to 18 years. No nonlinear relationship of coffee consumption with gastric cancer risk was indentified (P for nonlinearity = 0.53; P for heterogeneity = 0.004). The linear regression model showed that the combined relative risk (RR) of every 3 cups/day increment of total coffee consumption was 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95–1.21). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption, the RR of gastric cancer was 1.18 (95% CI = 0.90–1.55) for the highest (median 6.5 cups/day) category, 1.06 (95% CI = 0.85–1.32) for the second highest category (median 3.5 cups/day), and 0.97 (95% CI = 0.79–1.20) for the third highest category (median 1.5 cups/day). Subgroup analysis showed an elevated risk in the US population (RR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.06–1.75) and no adjustment for smoking (RR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.08–2.59) for 6.5 cups/day. Current evidence indicated there was no nonlinear association between coffee consumption and gastric cancer risk. However, high

  13. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  14. Long Term Modelling of Permafrost Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-07-01

    REFERENCES Albert, M.R. (1984). Modelling two-dimensional freezing using transfinite mappings and a moving mesh finite element technique. Int. J. Numer... transfinite mappings’. Int. J. Numer. Methods Eng., 23, 591- 607. Burt, T.P and P.J. Williams (1976). ’Hydraulic conductivity in frozen soils.’ Earth Surf

  15. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  16. Elevated rheumatoid factor and long term risk of rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sune F; Bojesen, Stig E; Schnohr, Peter;

    2012-01-01

    To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis.......To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis....

  17. Global recycling services for short and long term risk reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arslan, M.; Grygiel, J.M.; Drevon, C.; Lelievre, F.; Lesage, M.; Vincent, O. [AREVA, 33 rue Lafayette, F-75009 Paris (France)

    2013-07-01

    New schemes are being developed by AREVA in order to provide global solutions for safe and non-proliferating management of used fuels, thereby significantly contributing to overall risks reduction and sustainable nuclear development. Utilities are thereby provided with a service through which they will be able to send their used fuels and only get returned vitrified and compacted waste, the only waste remaining after reprocessing. This waste is stable, standard and has demonstrated capability for very long term interim storage. They are provided as well with associated facilities and all necessary services for storage in a demonstrated safely manner. Recycled fuels, in particular MOX, would be used either in existing LWRs or in a very limited number of full MOX reactors (like the EPR reactor), located in selected countries, that will recycle MOX so as to downgrade the isotopic quality of the Pu inventories in a significant manner. Reprocessed uranium also can be recycled. These schemes, on top of offering demonstrated operational advantages and a responsible approach, result into optimized economics for all shareholders of the scheme, as part of reactor financing (under Opex or Capex form) will be secured thanks to the value of the recycled flows. It also increases fuel cost predictability as recycled fuel is not subject to market fluctuations as much and allows, in a limited span of time, for clear risk mitigation. (authors)

  18. Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renyi Cao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

  19. Estimating Systematic Risk With Long-Term Growth Forecasts and Analyst Following

    OpenAIRE

    Richard J. Dowen

    1992-01-01

    According to the capital asset pricing model, a stockÕs required rate of return is determined by systematic risk, otherwise known as beta. Usually betas are estimated using historic data. It is shown here that future betas have a stronger relationship to analystsÕ long-term growth forecast than to historic betas.

  20. Towards The Long-Term Preservation of Building Information Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beetz, Jacob; Dietze, Stefan; Berndt, René

    2013-01-01

    primarily been on textual and audio-visual media types. With the recent paradigm shift in architecture and construction from analog 2D plans and scale models to digital 3D information models of buildings, long-term preservation efforts must turn their attention to this new type of data. Currently......Long-term preservation of information about artifacts of the built environment is crucial to provide the ability to retrofit legacy buildings, to preserve cultural heritage, to ensure security precautions, to enable knowledge-reuse of design and engineering solutions and to guarantee the legal...... liabilities of all stakeholders (e.g. designer, engineers). Efforts for the digital preservation of information have come a long way and a number of mature methods, frameworks, guidelines and software systems are at the disposal of librarians and archivists. However, the focus of these developments has...

  1. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available /CAMx CAMx in NRE MM5 Past Future ? Retrospective Air quality ? CSIR 2010 Slide 5 New framework for air quality forecast ? CCAM/CAMx CAMx in NRE CCAM Past Future Future Air quality ? CSIR 2010 Slide 6 New research - air quality forecast... Current research focus ? The response of air quality to changes in climate ? Simulations on longer time scales ? Drive air quality models with long term forecasted meteorology ? Need a baseline (1989 ? 2009) ? To date: Initial testing and 2 years...

  2. A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azevedo, F.; Vale, Z.A.; Khodr, H.M. [GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision-Support Research Center of the Polytechnic Institute of Porto (ISEP/IPP), Rua Dr. Antonio Bernardino de Almeida 431, 4200-072 Porto (Portugal); Oliveira, P.B. Moura [University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal)

    2010-04-15

    This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn. (author)

  3. A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

    2013-12-15

    This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance.

  4. Multilevel analysis of workplace and individual risk factors for long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl B; Lund, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine if psychosocial and physical work-environment factors predict long-term sickness absence (>8 weeks) at both the individual and the workplace level. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were collected in a prospective study in 52 Danish workplaces....... Psychosocial factors were aggregated as workplace means. We used multilevel logistic regression models with psychosocial factors as predictors of long-term sickness absence over 5 years based on data from a national absence register. RESULTS: Long-term sickness absence was predicted by physical work......-environment factors at the individual level and psychosocial work environment factors at the workplace level. Interaction between the individual physical and workplace-level psychosocial risk factors was found. CONCLUSION: Workplace-based absence reduction interventions can be enhanced by concurrently addressing...

  5. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  6. Computer simulation of microgravity long-term effects and risk evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Poch, Antoni

    The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate possible long-term effects of microgravity on the human pulmonary function. It is also studied the efficacy of long-term regular exercise on relevant cardiovascular parameters when the human body is also exposed to microgravity. Little is known today about what long-term effects microgravity may cause on pulmonary function. It does not exist a complete explanation of the possible risks involved, although some experiments are under way on the ISS in order to evaluate them. Computer simulations are an important tool which may be used to predict and analyse these possible effects, and compare them with in-flight experiments. We based our study on a previous computer model (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects) which was developed in our laboratory and validated with the available data, focusing on the cardiovascular parameters affected by changes in gravity exposure. In this previous work we simulated part of the cardiovascular systems and we applied it to evaluate risks of blood-forming organs malfunction. NELME is based on an electrical-like control system model of the physiological changes, that may occur when gravity changes are applied. The computer implementation has a modular architecture. Hence, different output parameters, potential effects, organs and countermeasures can be easily implemented and evaluated. In this work we added a module to the system to analyse the pulmonary function with a gravity input parameter, as well as exposure time. We then conducted a battery of simulations when different values of g are applied for long-term exposures. We found no significant evidence of changes and no risks were foreseen. We also carried out an EVA simulation as a perturbation in the system (intense exercise, changes in breathed air) and studied the acute response. This is of great importance as current mission requirements do not allow data collection immediately following real EVAs

  7. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  8. Long-Term Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monrad, Maria; Sajadieh, Ahmad; Christensen, Jeppe Schultz

    2017-01-01

    of first-ever hospital admission for atrial fibrillation from enrolment to end of follow-up in 2011. For all cohort members, exposure to traffic-related air pollution assessed as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) was estimated at all present and historical residential addresses from 1984...... to 2011 using a validated dispersion model. We used Cox proportional hazard model to estimate associations between long-term residential exposure to NO2 and NOx and risk of atrial fibrillation, after adjustment for lifestyle and socioeconomic position. RESULTS: A 10 µg/m(3) higher 10-years' time......-weighted mean exposure to NO2 preceding diagnosis was associated with an 8% higher risk of atrial fibrillation (incidence rate ratio: 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.14) in adjusted analysis. Though weaker, similar results were obtained for long-term residential exposure to NOx. We found no clear...

  9. A new Bayesian network-based risk stratification model for prediction of short-term and long-term LVAD mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A; Kanwar, Manreet K; Druzdzel, Marek J; Benza, Raymond L; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow LVAD patients and 226 preimplant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time end-points postimplant (30 days, 90 days, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 years), achieving accuracies of 95%, 90%, 90%, 83%, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) of 91%, 82%, 82%, 80%, and 81%, respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57% and 60% at 90 days and 1 year, respectively. Preimplant interventions, such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relations of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation.

  10. Coupling giant impacts and long-term evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golabek, G.; Jutzi, M.; Emsenhuber, A.; Gerya, T.; Asphaug, E. I.

    2015-12-01

    The crustal dichotomy [1] is the dominant geological feature on planet Mars. The exogenic approach to the origin of the crustal dichotomy [2-6] assumes that the northern lowlands correspond to a giant impact basin formed after primordial crust formation. However these simulations only consider the impact phase without studying the long-term repercussions of such a collision. The endogenic approach [7], suggesting a degree-1 mantle upwelling underneath the southern highlands [8-11], relies on a high Rayleigh number and a particular viscosity profile to form a low degree convective pattern within the geological constraints for the dichotomy formation. Such vigorous convection, however, results in continuous magmatic resurfacing, destroying the initially dichotomous crustal structure in the long-term. A further option is a hybrid exogenic-endogenic approach [12-15], which proposes an impact-induced magma ocean and subsequent superplume in the southern hemisphere. However these models rely on simple scaling laws to impose the thermal effects of the collision. Here we present the first results of impact simulations performed with a SPH code [16,17] serially coupled with geodynamical computations performed using the code I3VIS [18] to improve the latter approach and test it against observations. We are exploring collisions varying the impactor velocities, impact angles and target body properties, and are gauging the sensitivity to the handoff from SPH to I3VIS. As expected, our first results indicate the formation of a transient hemispherical magma ocean in the impacted hemisphere, and the merging of the cores. We also find that impact angle and velocity have a strong effect on the post-impact temperature field [5] and on the timescale and nature of core merger.

  11. Risk of future sickness absence in frequent and long-term absentees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, P.C.; Roelen, C.A.; Groothoff, J.W.

    Background Prior absence is an important predictor for sickness absence, but little is known about the recurrence among frequent and/or long-term absentees, over a longer period of time. Aim To monitor sickness absence among frequent and long-term absentees in order to investigate their risk of

  12. Long-term surface temperature modeling of Pluto

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Alissa M.; Binzel, Richard P.; Young, Leslie A.; Stern, S. A.; Ennico, K.; Grundy, W.; Olkin, C. B.; Weaver, H. A.

    2017-05-01

    NASA's New Horizons' reconnaissance of the Pluto system has revealed at high resolution the striking albedo contrasts from polar to equatorial latitudes on Pluto, as well as the sharpness of boundaries for longitudinal variations. These contrasts suggest that Pluto must undergo dynamic evolution that drives the redistribution of volatiles. Using the New Horizons results as a template, we explore the surface temperature variations driven seasonally on Pluto considering multiple timescales. These timescales include the current orbit (248 years) as well as the timescales for obliquity precession (peak-to-peak amplitude of 23° over 3 million years) and regression of the orbital longitude of perihelion (3.7 million years). These orbital variations create epochs of ;Extreme Seasons; where one pole receives a short, relatively warm summer and long winter, while the other receives a much longer, but less intense summer and short winter. We use thermal modeling to build upon the long-term insolation history model described by Earle and Binzel (2015) and investigate how these seasons couple with Pluto's albedo contrasts to create temperature effects. From this study we find that a bright region at the equator, once established, can become a site for net deposition. We see the region informally known as Sputnik Planitia as an example of this, and find it will be able to perpetuate itself as an ;always available; cold trap, thus having the potential to survive on million year or substantially longer timescales. Meanwhile darker, low-albedo, regions near the equator will remain relative warm and generally not attract volatile deposition. We argue that the equatorial region is a ;preservation zone; for whatever albedo is seeded there. This offers insight as to why the equatorial band of Pluto displays the planet's greatest albedo contrasts.

  13. Long term government debt, financial fragility, and sovereign default risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Kwaak, C.; van Wijnbergen, S.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the interaction between bank rescues, financial fragility and sovereign debt discounts. To that end we set up a model that contains balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries financing both capital expenditure of intermediate goods producers and government deficits. The financial

  14. The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osterrieder, Daniela; Schotman, Peter C.

    We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields...... are dominated by a level factor, which requires persistence in the spot interest rate. We find that a fractionally integrated process for the short rate plus a fractionally integrated specification for the price of risk leads to an analytically tractable almost affine term structure model that can explain...... the stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than the returns themselves. It therefore takes a volatile risk premium that is negatively correlated with innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility...

  15. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  16. Thiazolidinediones and Risk of Long-Term Dialysis in Diabetic Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Hsin Chen

    Full Text Available Thiazolidinediones (TZDs reduce urinary albumin excretion and proteinuria in diabetic nephropathy. The effect of TZDs on hard renal outcome in diabetic patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD is unknown. We investigate the association of TZDs and risk of long-term dialysis or death in diabetic patients with advanced CKD. The nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. From January 2000 to June 2009, 12350 diabetic patients with advanced CKD (serum creatinine levels greater than 6 mg/dL but not yet receiving renal replacement therapy were selected for the study. We used multivariable Cox regression models and a propensity score-based matching technique to estimate hazard ratios (HRs for development of long-term dialysis and the composite outcome of long-term dialysis or death for TZD users (n=1224 as compared to nonusers (n=11126. During a median follow-up of 6 months, 8270 (67.0% patients required long-term dialysis and 2593 (21.0% patients died before starting long-term dialysis. Using propensity score matched analysis, we found TZD users were associated with a lower risk for long-term dialysis (HR, 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.86 and the composite outcome of long-term dialysis or death (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.91. The results were consistent across most patient subgroups. Use of TZDs among diabetic patients with advanced CKD was associated with lower risk for progression to end-stage renal disease necessitating long-term dialysis or death. Further randomized controlled studies are required to validate this association.

  17. Exposure to disturbing noise and risk of long-term sickness absence among office workers:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Thomas; Kristiansen, Jesper; Vinsløv Hansen, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To investigate the association between selfreported exposure to disturbing noise and risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) for more than two consecutive weeks among office workers. Methods LTSA was measured using register data that were linked to survey data from 2,883 office workers...... aged 18–59 who were surveyed in 2005 on exposure to disturbing noise. The risk of LTSA was investigated using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Of the study population, 4.4 % had LTSA in the 1-year follow-up period. Compared to office workers who were ‘rarely or never’ exposed to disturbing noise...... at work, office workers who reported being ‘frequently’ exposed to disturbing noise had a significantly increased estimated risk of LTSA when adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, and managerial position (HR = 1.90; 95 % CI, 1.12–3.22). After additional adjustment for psychosocial work conditions...

  18. Long-term risk of upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage after advanced AKI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Pei-Chen; Wu, Chih-Jen; Lin, Cheng-Jui; Wu, Vin-Cent

    2015-03-06

    There are few reports on temporary dialysis-requiring AKI as a risk factor for future upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). This study sought to explore the long-term association between dialysis-requiring AKI and UGIB. This nationwide cohort study used data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients who recovered from dialysis-requiring AKI and matched controls were selected from hospitalized patients age ≥18 years between 1998 and 2006. The cumulative incidences of long-term de novo UGIB were calculated, and the risk factors of UGIB and mortality were identified using time-varying Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for subsequent CKD and ESRD after AKI. A total of 4565 AKI-recovery patients and the same number of matched patients without AKI were analyzed. After a median follow-up time of 2.33 years (interquartile range, 0.97-4.81 years), the incidence rates of UGIB were 50 (by stringent criterion) and 69 (by lenient criterion) per 1000 patient-years in the AKI-recovery group and 31 (by stringent criterion) and 48 (by lenient criterion) per 1000 patient-years in the non-AKI group (both Prisk for long-term mortality increased after UGIB (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.38) and dialysis-requiring AKI (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.54 to 1.78). Recovery from dialysis-requiring AKI was associated with future UGIB and mortality. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  19. Damage-based long-term modelling of a large alpine rock slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riva, Federico; Agliardi, Federico; Amitrano, David; Crosta, Giovanni B.

    2016-04-01

    The morphology and stability of large alpine rock slopes result from the long-term interplay of different factors, following a complex history spanning several glacial cycles over thousands of years in changing morpho-climatic settings. Large rock slopes often experience slow long-term, creep-like movements interpreted as the macroscopic evidence of progressive failure in subcritically stressed rock masses. Slope damage and rock mass weakening associated to deglaciation are considered major triggers of these processes in alpine environments. Depending on rock mass properties, slope topography and removed ice thickness, valley flanks can progressively evolve over time into rockslides showing seasonal displacement trends, interpreted as evidence of hydro-mechanically coupled responses to hydrologic perturbations. The processes linking the long-term evolution of deglaciated rock slopes and their changing sensitivity to hydrologic triggers until rockslide failure, with significant implications in risk management and Early Warning, are not fully understood. We suggest that modelling long-term rock mass damage under changing conditions may provide such a link. We simulated the evolution of the Spriana rock slope (Italian Central Alps). This is affected by a 50 Mm3 rockslide, significantly active since the late 19th century and characterized by massive geological and geotechnical investigations and monitoring during the last decades. Using an improved version of the 2D Finite-Element, damage-based brittle creep model proposed by Amitrano and Helmstetter (2006) and Lacroix and Amitrano (2013), we combined damage and time-to-failure laws to reproduce diffused damage, strain localization and the long-term creep deformation of the slope. The model was implemented for application to real slopes, by accounting for: 1) fractured rock mass properties upscaling based on site characterization data; 2) fluid pressures in a progressive failure context, relating fluid occurrence to

  20. Decision-Support System for Mitigating Long-Term Flood Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, H. R.; van Delden, H.; Newman, J. P.; Riddell, G. A.; Zecchin, A. C.; Dandy, G. C.; Newland, C. P.

    2015-12-01

    Long-term flood risk in urban areas is expected to increase as a result of a number of factors, such as an increase in the severity of flood events due to the impact of climate change and the exposure of a larger number of people to flooding as a result of population growth. In order to facilitate the development of long-term flood mitigation plans, a framework for a decision-support system (DSS) is presented in this paper. The framework consists of an integrated model (see Figure) consisting of dynamic, spatially distributed land-use and flood inundation models. It also enables the impact of various flood mitigation strategies to be assessed, such as spatial planning, land management, structural measures (e.g. levees, changes in building codes), and community education. The framework considers a number of external drivers that are represented in the form of long-term planning scenarios. These include the impact of climate drivers on the extent of flooding via the flood inundation model and the impact of population and economic drivers on the size and distribution of the population via the land use allocation model. Using this framework, a DSS is being developed and applied to the Greater Adelaide region of South Australia. This DSS includes an intuitive, user-friendly interface for enabling different planning scenarios and mitigation portfolios to be selected, as well as temporal changes in flood risk maps under each of these scenarios to be observed. Changes in flood risk maps are investigated over a 30-year period with climate drivers represented by different representative concentration pathways, population drivers represented by different population projections and economic drivers represented by different employment rates. The impact of different combinations of mitigation measures is also investigated. The results indicate that climate, population and economic drivers have a significant impact on the temporal evolution of flood risk for the case study area

  1. Pollution risk assessment of long-term leaking in landfill-based on the Landsim model%基于Landsim的填埋场长期渗漏的污染风险评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐亚; 颜湘华; 董路; 能昌信; 刘玉强; 黄启飞

    2014-01-01

    This paper briefly introduced the basic theory framework of Landsim with especial focus on its way to conceptualize long-term performances of cap layer, liner layer and drainage pipe. The infiltration module of HELP model was introduced to couple with Landsim to improve its accuracy of infiltration calculation. This coupled model was then applied to assess the long-term leaking risk of a hazardous waste landfill in the Southwest China. The measured concentration of target contaminant falls in the range of predicted value. The groundwater pollution risk caused by the leachate leakage was ignorable in short-term(1~3year) with the pollution probability smaller than or equal to 0.33, but large in long-term (≥4year) with the pollution probability larger than or equal to 0.68. The case study suggest that insetting the national standards and guidelines about the design and operation of landfill, the long-term change of cap layer, liner layer and drainage pipe should be taken into consideration to reduce the risk of leachate leakage.%介绍了Landsim模型的基本理论及其填埋场防渗系统、导排系统长期性能变化的表征方式,在此基础上提出了填埋场长期渗漏风险的表征方式.通过Landsim和HELP模型的耦合,弥补了Landsim模型中堆体入渗计算过于简单的缺陷.运用耦合的Landsim-HELP模型评价了西南地区某危险废物填埋场的长期渗漏的地下水污染风险.结果表明,该耦合模型可以准确的评价填埋场性能变化条件下的渗漏量及其对应概率;该填埋场在短期内(1~3a)地下水被污染的概率风险较小(≤0.33),而在长期内(≥4a)被污染的风险较大(≥0.68).建议在制定填埋场的设计和运行标准时需考虑防渗膜、导排管等重要单元长期性能的变化,从而减小其长期渗漏造成的地下水污染风险.

  2. Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2016-12-01

    Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although

  3. Uncertainty Assessment in Long Term Urban Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    the probability of system failures (defined as either flooding or surcharge of manholes or combined sewer overflow); (2) an application of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology in which an event based stochastic calibration is performed; and (3) long term Monte Carlo simulations...... with the purpose of estimating the uncertainties on the extreme event statistics of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow volumes in drainage systems. The thesis concludes that the uncertainties on both maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow volumes are considerable, especially on the large...

  4. Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk among Young People: Evidence from Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elish; McGuinness, Seamus; O'Connell, Philip J.

    2012-01-01

    Many young people have short spells of unemployment during their transition from school to work; however, some often get trapped in unemployment and risk becoming long-term unemployed. Much research has been undertaken on the factors that influence unemployment risk for young people during their school-to-work transition. However, very little is…

  5. Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk among Young People: Evidence from Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elish; McGuinness, Seamus; O'Connell, Philip J.

    2012-01-01

    Many young people have short spells of unemployment during their transition from school to work; however, some often get trapped in unemployment and risk becoming long-term unemployed. Much research has been undertaken on the factors that influence unemployment risk for young people during their school-to-work transition. However, very little is…

  6. Long Term Effects on Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease after 12-Months of Aerobic Exercise Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korshøj, Mette; Lidegaard, Mark; Krustrup, Peter;

    2016-01-01

    was to evaluate the 12-months effects of worksite aerobic exercise on risk factors for CVD among cleaners. METHODS: One hundred and sixteen cleaners aged 18-65 years were randomized to a group performing aerobic exercise and a reference group receiving lectures. Outcomes were collected at baseline and after 12......-months. A repeated measures 2×2 multi-adjusted mixed-model design was applied to compare the between-group differences using intention-to-treat analysis. RESULTS: Between-group differences (paerobic exercise group: cardiorespiratory fitness 2.15 (SE 1.03) mlO2/min...... to impose a notable adverse effect on resting and ambulatory blood pressure. CONCLUSION: This long-term worksite aerobic exercise intervention among cleaners led to several beneficial effects, but also potential adverse effects among those with high relative aerobic workloads. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled...

  7. Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

  8. A Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luong, Ming; Stevens, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success, a theoretical stages-of-growth model, explains long-term success in IT outsourcing relationships. Research showed the IT outsourcing relationship life cycle consists of four distinct, sequential stages: contract, transition, support, and partnership. The model was…

  9. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies; Modeliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang: application aux politiques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crassous, R

    2008-11-15

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks.

  10. Long-term risk of cardiovascular disease after treatment for aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, Elizabeth C; Noordijk, Evert M; van Leeuwen, Flora E; le Cessie, Saskia; Baars, Joke W; Thomas, José; Carde, Patrice; Meerwaldt, Jacobus H; van Glabbeke, Martine; Kluin-Nelemans, Hanneke C

    2006-04-01

    Cardiovascular disease frequently occurs after lymphoma therapy, but it is common in the general population too. Therefore, risk estimation requires comparison to population-based rates. We calculated risk by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs) per 10,000 person-years based on general population rates (Continuous Morbidity Registry Nijmegen) in 476 (Dutch and Belgian) patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) treated with at least 6 cycles of doxorubicin-based chemotherapy in 4 European Organization for Research on Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trials (1980-1999). Cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease, estimated in a competing risk model, was 12% at 5 years and 22% at 10 years (median follow-up, 8.4 years). Risk of chronic heart failure appeared markedly increased (SIR, 5.4; 95% CI, 4.1-6.9) with an AER of 208 excess cases per 10 000 person-years, whereas risk of coronary artery disease matched the general population (SIR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-1.8; AER, 8 per 10 000 person-years). Risk of stroke was raised (SIR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4; AER, 15 per 10 000 person-years), especially after additional radiotherapy (> 40 Gy). Preexisting hypertension, NHL at young age, and salvage treatment increased risk of all cardiovascular events; the effect of radiotherapy was dose dependent. In conclusion, patients are at long-term high risk of chronic heart failure after NHL treatment and need therefore life-long monitoring. In contrast, risk of coronary artery disease appeared more age dependent than treatment related.

  11. Workplace social capital and risk of long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rugulies, Reiner; Hasle, Peter; Pejtersen, Jan Hyld

    2016-01-01

    Background: Workplace social capital (WSC) is an emerging topic among both work environment professionals and researchers. We examined (i) whether high WSC protected against risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in a random sample of the Danish workforce during a 1-year follow-up and (ii...

  12. Long-term increased risk of unemployment after young stroke: A long-term follow-up study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maaijwee, N.A.; Rutten-Jacobs, L.C.; Arntz, R.M.; Schaapsmeerders, P.; Schoonderwaldt, H.C.; Dijk, E.J. van; Leeuw, F.E. de

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence, excess risk, and risk factors of unemployment in patients after a TIA, ischemic stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage at ages 18 through 50 years, compared with nationwide controls. METHODS: We performed a hospital-based cohort study among 694 patients, aged 1

  13. Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

    2014-12-01

    The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

  14. Long-term portfolio investments: New insight into return and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Abramov

    2015-09-01

    Emphasis is placed on the need for regular adjustments to long-term investors’ portfolios. As portfolios get older, those investors see a reduction in the returns’ dispersion, while differences in risk between various portfolios increase. This means that to maintain a fixed risk–return ratio for a portfolio as the horizon increases, an investor needs to increase the share of lower-risk financial assets during asset allocation process. This thesis becomes especially relevant in the context of retirement savings management.

  15. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2016-11-10

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  16. A long term model of circulation. [human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A quantitative approach to modeling human physiological function, with a view toward ultimate application to long duration space flight experiments, was undertaken. Data was obtained on the effect of weightlessness on certain aspects of human physiological function during 1-3 month periods. Modifications in the Guyton model are reviewed. Design considerations for bilateral interface models are discussed. Construction of a functioning whole body model was studied, as well as the testing of the model versus available data.

  17. Long-term use of lithium and risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pottegård, Anton; Ennis, Zandra Nymand; Hallas, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Lithium accumulates in the colon and inhibits the enzyme GSK-3β that possesses anti-carcinogenic effects. We therefore examined the association between lithium use and colorectal cancer risk in a nationwide study. METHODS: We used the Danish Cancer Registry to identify all patients...... diagnosed with incident colorectal adenocarcinoma during 2000-2012 (n=36 248). Using a matched case-control approach, we estimated the association between long-term use (⩾5 years) of lithium and risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Long-term use of lithium......, 0.66-1.55; distal colon: 1.52 (95% CI, 1.05-2.20); and rectum: 0.80 (95% CI, 0.50-1.30). CONCLUSIONS: Lithium use was not associated with an overall increased risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma. The variation by subsite warrants further investigation....

  18. Signal-averaged P wave duration and the long-term risk of permanent atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixen, Ulrik; Larsen, Mette Vang; Ravn, Lasse Steen

    2008-01-01

    sinus rhythm attending a long-term, follow-up visit at hospital or at home. Established permanent AF was examined in relation to primary clinical, echocardiographic, and electrophysiological parameters. RESULTS: Only prolonged SAPWD (p=0.006) was associated with an increased risk of development......OBJECTIVE: To assess the long-term risk of developing permanent AF in relation to the signal-averaged P wave duration (SAPWD) and clinical and echocardiographic characteristics. DESIGN: In an observational study design we studied 131 patients with earlier ECG-documented AF and successfully restored...... of permanent AF. The risk of permanent AF after 3 years follow-up was 0.72 with an SAPWD equal to 180 ms versus 0.39 with a normal SAPWD (130 ms). We found no prognostic effect of age, gender, dilated left atrium, long duration of AF history, or long duration of the most recent episode of AF. Co...

  19. Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

    2017-03-07

    A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

  20. Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

    2017-03-07

    A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

  1. Increased risk of atrial fibrillation among elderly Norwegian men with a history of long-term endurance sport practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myrstad, M; Løchen, M-L; Graff-Iversen, S; Gulsvik, A K; Thelle, D S; Stigum, H; Ranhoff, A H

    2014-08-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia. The prevalence increases with increasing age. In middle-aged men, endurance sport practice is associated with increased risk of AF but there are few studies among elderly people. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of long-term endurance sport practice as a risk factor for AF in elderly men. A cross-sectional study compared 509 men aged 65-90 years who participated in a long-distance cross-country ski race with 1768 men aged 65-87 years from the general population. Long-term endurance sport practice was the main exposure. Self-reported AF and covariates were assessed by questionnaires. Risk differences (RDs) for AF were estimated by using a linear regression model. After multivariable adjustment, a history of endurance sport practice gave an added risk for AF of 6.0 percent points (pp) (95% confidence interval 0.8-11.1). Light and moderate leisure-time physical activity during the last 12 months reduced the risk with 3.7 and 4.3 pp, respectively, but the RDs were not statistically significant. This study suggests that elderly men with a history of long-term endurance sport practice have an increased risk of AF compared with elderly men in the general population.

  2. Modelling long term survival with non-proportional hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perperoglou, Aristidis

    2006-01-01

    In this work I consider models for survival data when the assumption of proportionality does not hold. The thesis consists of an Introduction, five papers, a Discussion and an Appendix. The Introduction presents technical information about the Cox model and introduces the ideas behind the extensions

  3. Long-Term Calculations with Large Air Pollution Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

  4. Parametric hazard rate models for long-term sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, Petra C.; Roelen, Corne A. M.; Groothoff, Johan W.

    2009-01-01

    In research on the time to onset of sickness absence and the duration of sickness absence episodes, Cox proportional hazard models are in common use. However, parametric models are to be preferred when time in itself is considered as independent variable. This study compares parametric hazard rate m

  5. Parametric hazard rate models for long-term sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, Petra C.; Roelen, Corne A. M.; Groothoff, Johan W.

    2009-01-01

    In research on the time to onset of sickness absence and the duration of sickness absence episodes, Cox proportional hazard models are in common use. However, parametric models are to be preferred when time in itself is considered as independent variable. This study compares parametric hazard rate m

  6. Long-Term Calculations with Large Air Pollution Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

  7. Long-term seizure outcome and risk factors for recurrence after extratemporal epilepsy surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Anne M; Averill, Clare A; Kalnins, Renate M; Mitchell, L Anne; Fabinyi, Gavin C A; Jackson, Graeme D; Berkovic, Samuel F

    2012-06-01

    We aimed to assess long-term seizure outcome and risk factors for seizure recurrence in a cohort of patients who have undergone extratemporal resection for management of refractory seizures. Eighty-one patients underwent extratemporal resection at Austin Health, Melbourne, Australia (1991-2004). Seizure recurrence was any postoperative disabling seizure (complex partial seizure [CPS] ± secondary generalization). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models examined potential preoperative and perioperative risk factors and the risk associated with early postoperative seizures (≤ 28 days postsurgery). The change between preoperative and postoperative seizure frequency was also measured. Median follow-up was 10.3 years (range 1-17.7). The probabilities of freedom from disabling seizures (on or off antiepileptic medication) were 40.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 30-51) at 1 month, 23.5% (95% CI 15-33) at 1 year, and 14.7% (95% CI 8-23) at 5 years postoperative. Reduction of disabling seizures to at least 20% of preoperative frequency was attained by 57% of patients at 5 postoperative years. Of the preoperative/perioperative factors, focal cortical dysplasia (FCD) type 1 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.90, 95% CI 1.08-3.34, p = 0.025) and incomplete resection (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.06-2.76, p = 0.028) were independent recurrence risks. After surgery, an early postoperative seizure was the only factor associated with higher risk (HR 4.28 [2.42-7.57], p = 0.00). Distinction between subtypes of focal cortical dysplasia, which can be made using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) criteria, may be useful for preoperative prognostication. Early seizures after surgery are not benign and may be markers of factors that contribute to seizure recurrence. Most patients achieve substantial reduction in seizure frequency. Further study of the significance of this reduction in terms of surgical "success" or otherwise is required. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2012 International League

  8. Modelling Tradescantia fluminensis to assess long term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex James

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple Poisson process model for the growth of Tradescantia fluminensis, an invasive plant species that inhibits the regeneration of native forest remnants in New Zealand. The model was parameterised with data derived from field experiments in New Zealand and then verified with independent data. The model gave good predictions which showed that its underlying assumptions are sound. However, this simple model had less predictive power for outputs based on variance suggesting that some assumptions were lacking. Therefore, we extended the model to include higher variability between plants thereby improving its predictions. This high variance model suggests that control measures that promote node death at the base of the plant or restrict the main stem growth rate will be more effective than those that reduce the number of branching events. The extended model forms a good basis for assessing the efficacy of various forms of control of this weed, including the recently-released leaf-feeding tradescantia leaf beetle (Neolema ogloblini.

  9. Evaluation of nourishment schemes based on long-term morphological modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunnet, Nicholas; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Drønen, Nils

    2012-01-01

    A recently developed long-term morphological modeling concept is applied to evaluate the impact of nourishment schemes. The concept combines detailed two-dimensional morphological models and simple one-line models for the coastline evolution and is particularly well suited for long-term simulatio...... site. This study strongly indicates that the hybrid model may be used as an engineering tool to predict shoreline response following the implementation of a nourishment project....

  10. The Prime Diabetes Model: Novel Methods for Estimating Long-Term Clinical and Cost Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, William J; Pollock, Richard F; Saunders, Rhodri; Bae, Jay; Norrbacka, Kirsi; Boye, Kristina

    Recent publications describing long-term follow-up from landmark trials and diabetes registries represent an opportunity to revisit modeling options in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). To develop a new product-independent model capable of predicting long-term clinical and cost outcomes. After a systematic literature review to identify clinical trial and registry data, a model was developed (the PRIME Diabetes Model) to simulate T1DM progression and complication onset. The model runs as a patient-level simulation, making use of covariance matrices for cohort generation and risk factor progression, and simulating myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, heart failure, nephropathy, retinopathy, macular edema, neuropathy, amputation, hypoglycemia, ketoacidosis, mortality, and risk factor evolution. Several approaches novel to T1DM modeling were used, including patient characteristics and risk factor covariance, a glycated hemoglobin progression model derived from patient-level data, and model averaging approaches to evaluate complication risk. Validation analyses comparing modeled outcomes with published studies demonstrated that the PRIME Diabetes Model projects long-term patient outcomes consistent with those reported for a number of long-term studies. Macrovascular end points were reliably reproduced across five different populations and microvascular complication risk was accurately predicted on the basis of comparisons with landmark studies and published registry data. The PRIME Diabetes Model is product-independent, available online, and has been developed in line with good practice guidelines. Validation has indicated that outcomes from long-term studies can be reliably reproduced. The model offers new approaches to long-standing challenges in diabetes modeling and may become a valuable tool for informing health care policy. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    OpenAIRE

    Ettore Bernardoni; Marco Acutis; Domenico Ventrella

    2012-01-01

    The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1), the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB) and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC) were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model ...

  12. Wnt Pathway Activation in Long Term Remnant Rat Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Banon-Maneus

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD is characterized by deposition of extracellular matrix. This is an irreversible process that leads to tubulointerstitial fibrosis and finally loss of kidney function. Wnt/β-catenin pathway was reported to be aberrantly activated in the progressive damage associated with chronic organ failure. Extensive renal ablation is an experimental model widely used to gain insight into the mechanisms responsible for the development of CKD, but it was not evaluated for Wnt/β-catenin pathway. This study aimed to elucidate if the rat 5/6 renal mass reduction model (RMR is a good model for the Wnt/β-catenin activation and possible next modulation. RMR model was evaluated at 12 and 18 weeks after the surgery, when CKD is close to end-stage kidney disease demonstrated by molecular and histological studies. Wnt pathway components were analyzed at mRNA and protein level. Our results demonstrate that Wnt pathway is active by increase of β-catenin at mRNA level and nuclear translocation in tubular epithelium as well as some target genes. These results validate the RMR model for future modulation of Wnt pathway, starting at shorter time after the surgery.

  13. Long-Term Morphological Modeling of Barrier Island Tidal Inlets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Styles

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The primary focus of this study is to apply a two-dimensional (2-D coupled flow-wave-sediment modeling system to simulate the development and growth of idealized barrier island tidal inlets. The idealized systems are drawn from nine U.S. coastal inlets representing Pacific Coast, Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast geographical and climatological environments. A morphological factor is used to effectively model 100 years of inlet evolution and the resulting morphological state is gauged in terms of the driving hydrodynamic processes. Overall, the model performs within the range of established theoretically predicted inlet cross-sectional area. The model compares favorably to theoretical models of maximum inlet currents, which serve as a measure of inlet stability. Major morphological differences are linked to inlet geometry and tidal forcing. Narrower inlets develop channels that are more aligned with the inlet axis while wider inlets develop channels that appear as immature braided channel networks similar to tidal flats in regions with abundant sediment supply. Ebb shoals with strong tidal forcing extend further from shore and spread laterally, promoting multi-lobe development bisected by ebb shoal channels. Ebb shoals with moderate tidal forcing form crescent bars bracketing a single shore-normal channel. Longshore transport contributes to ebb shoal asymmetry and provides bed material to help maintain the sediment balance in the bay.

  14. Adult predation risk drives shifts in parental care strategies: a long-term study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaatinen, Kim; Ost, Markus; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2011-01-01

    . 7. The predation risk of incubating females has long-term implications for later parental care decisions. We discuss the potential consequences of predation-induced shifts in group size on per capita fitness and population-wide productivity. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

  15. Long-Term Lithium Use and Risk of Renal and Upper Urinary Tract Cancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper; Jensen, Boye L; Madsen, Kirsten; Friis, Søren

    2016-01-01

    Lithium induces proliferation in the epithelium of renal collecting ducts. A recent small-scale cohort study reported a strong association between use of lithium and increased risk of renal neoplasia. We therefore conducted a large-scale pharmacoepidemiologic study of the association between long-term use of lithium and risk of upper urinary tract cancer, including renal cell cancer and cancers of the renal pelvis or ureter. We identified all histologically verified upper urinary tract cancer cases in Denmark between 2000 and 2012 from the Danish Cancer Registry. A total of 6477 cases were matched by age and sex to 259,080 cancer-free controls. Data on lithium use from 1995 to 2012 were obtained from the Danish Prescription Registry. We estimated the association between long-term use of lithium (≥5 years) and risk of upper urinary tract cancer using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders. Long-term use of lithium was observed among 0.22% of cases and 0.17% of controls. This yielded an overall nonsignificant adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.8-2.2) for upper urinary tract cancer associated with long-term use of lithium. Analyses stratified by stage and subtype of upper urinary tract cancer revealed slight but nonsignificant increases in the ORs for localized disease (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.8-3.0) and for renal pelvis/ureter cancers (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.5-5.4). In conclusion, in our nationwide case-control study, use of lithium was not associated with an increased risk of upper urinary tract cancer.

  16. The ancestral process of long term seed bank models

    CERN Document Server

    Blath, Jochen; Kurt, Noemi; Spanò, Dario

    2012-01-01

    We present a new model for the evolution of genetic types in the presence of so-called seed banks, i.e., where individuals may obtain their genetic type from ancestors which have lived in the near as well as the very far past. The classical Wright-Fisher model, as well as a seed bank model with bounded age distribution considered by Kaj, Krone and Lascoux (2001) are special cases of our model. We discern three parameter regimes of the seed bank age distribution, which lead to substantially different behaviour in terms of genetic variability, in particular with respect to fixation of types and time to the most recent common ancestor. We prove that for age distributions with finite mean, the rescaled ancestral process converges to a time-changed Kingman coalescent, while in the case of infinite mean, ancestral lineages might not merge at all with positive probability. Further, we present a construction of the forward in time process in equilibrium. The mathematical methods are based on renewal theory, the urn p...

  17. Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    -term evolution of mountains in cold climates. We focus upon two periglacial processes: 1) production of regolith from bedrock via frost-weathering, and 2) transport of sediment via frost creep. First, we propose a mechanistic model that quantifies the influence of temperature and sediment cover on process rates......-term feedbacks among climate, weathering intensity, sediment transport and the evolution of mountain topography. Our results suggest that periglacial processes can produce effectively smooth topography at a rate that varies with climate. The observed smoothing closely simulates the morphology of high......-elevation, low-relief summit surfaces known from many cold-region mountain ranges. Our model simulations also suggest that late- Cenozoic cooling has brought about variations in the intensity and spatial pattern of periglacial activity. Depending upon elevation, some summit surfaces experienced accelerated...

  18. Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koroush Khalighi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

  19. Long-term risk of complications after mid-urethral sling IVS implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz Surkont

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available [b]Introduction[/b]. Results of short-term evaluation of multifilament microporous midurethral tape IVS differ a great deal. During the first year of implantation, erosions have been observed in 0%–26% of operated women. Long-term observations are rare. They suggest high risk of extrusion and infection even after years of implantation. [b]Objective[/b]. The purpose of the study was to evaluate long-term risk of complications after IVS implantation. Material and methods. Between 2001–2005, 72 women were operated on with the use of IVS mid-urethral tape. [b]Results[/b]. Two women had vaginal erosions during the first 3 months after the operation. Twelve women had vaginal erosions, purulent vaginal discharge, with IVS tape sticking out of the abdominal wall or vagina, and abdominal abscess. These complications were diagnosed between 9 months and 6 years after IVS implantation. The patients were operated on vaginally and open abdominally, 1–5 times because of complications after IVS implantation. [b]Conclusions[/b]. In the case of post-IVS complication, as much tape as possible should be excised. Long-term follow up on patients with IVS implantation should be recommended to the centres where IVS tape was used, even to patients after removal of the tape. Risk of erosion, extrusion and infection after midurethral multifilament microporous IVS tape implantation is too high – which is the reason it should no longer be used.

  20. Atrial fibrillation following cardiac surgery: risk analysis and long-term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helgadottir Solveig

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We studied potential risk factors for postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF in a large cohort of patients who underwent open-heart surgery, evaluating short- and long-term outcome, and we developed a risk-assessment model of POAF. Methods A retrospective study of 744 patients without prior history of AF who underwent CABG (n = 513, OPCAB (n = 207, and/or AVR (n = 156 at Landspitali Hospital in 2002–2006. Logistic regression analysis was used to study risk factors for POAF, comparing patients with and without POAF. Results The rate of POAF was 44%, and was higher following AVR (74% than after CABG (44% or OPCAB (35%. In general, patients with POAF were significantly older, were more often female, were less likely to be smokers, had a lower EF, and had a higher EuroSCORE. The use of antiarrythmics was similar in the groups but patients who experienced POAF were less likely to be taking statins. POAF patients also had longer hospital stay, higher rates of complications, and operative mortality (5% vs. 0.7%. In multivariate analysis, AVR (OR 4.4, a preoperative history of cardiac failure (OR 1.8, higher EuroSCORE (OR 1.1, and advanced age (OR 1.1 were independent prognostic factors for POAF. Overall five-year survival was 83% and 93% for patients with and without POAF (p Conclusion POAF was detected in 44% of patients, which is high compared to other studies. In the future, our assessment score will hopefully be of use in identifying patients at high risk of POAF and lower complications related to POAF.

  1. Offspring preterm birth and birth size are related to long-term risk of maternal diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naver, Klara Vinsand; Secher, Niels Jørgen; Ovesen, Per Glud; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Nilas, Lisbeth

    2013-05-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate the association between gestational age, birth size, and the long-term risk of maternal diabetes. We conducted a nation-wide prospective follow-up study of the cohort of all Danish women with a singleton delivery in 1982/1983 (index delivery) and no history of diabetes (n = 100,669). Registries were used to extract information on patients with a hospital or outpatient diagnosis of diabetes, subsequent deliveries, and death/emigration in the period from the index delivery until the end of 2006. The association between the maternal risk of diabetes and the index gestational age and index offspring birth size (birth weight adjusted for gestational age) was investigated by using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified according to young (≤33 years) and old age (>33 years). During a median follow-up period of 24 years, 2,021 women (2.0 %) were diagnosed as having diabetes. The risk of maternal diabetes was positively associated with increasing index birth size and negatively associated with increasing duration of index gestation in both age strata. Among young women, the highest hazard ratios were found for the exposure category of large index offspring birth size (adjusted HR 9.0, 95 % CI 6.17-13.12) and a preterm delivery at 32-37 weeks (adjusted HR 2.22, 95 % CI 1.46-3.40). Offspring preterm birth and large size for gestational age at birth are associated with increased risk of maternal diabetes.

  2. Long-term runoff forecasting by combining hydrological models and meteorological records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao-Chang; Yu, Pao-Shan; Chen, Chiang-Chi

    2005-06-01

    Reservoir operation is generally based on the inflows of the upstream catchment of the reservoir. If the arriving inflows can be forecasted, that can benefit reservoir operation and management. This study attempts to construct a long-term inflow-forecasting model by combining a continuous rainfall-runoff model with the long-term weather outlook from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The analytical results demonstrate that the continuous rainfall-runoff model has good inflow simulation performance by using 10-day meteorological and inflow records over a 33-year period for model calibration and verification. The long-term inflow forecasting during the dry season was further conducted by combining the continuous rainfall-runoff model and the long-term weather outlook, which was found to have good performance.

  3. Long-term mortality following normal exercise myocardial perfusion SPECT according to coronary disease risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozanski, Alan; Gransar, Heidi; Min, James K; Hayes, Sean W; Friedman, John D; Thomson, Louise E J; Berman, Daniel S

    2014-04-01

    While normal exercise myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) is a robust predictor of low short-term clinical risk, there is increasing interest in ascertaining how clinical factors influence long-term risk following SPECT-MPI. We evaluated the predictors of outcome from clinical data obtained at the time of testing in 12,232 patients with normal exercise SPECT-MPI studies. All-cause mortality (ACM) was assessed at a mean of 11.2 ± 4.5 years using the Social Security Death Index. The ACM rate was 0.8%/year, but varied markedly according to the presence of CAD risk factors. Hypertension, smoking, diabetes, exercise capacity, dyspnea, obesity, higher resting heart rate, an abnormal ECG, LVH, atrial fibrillation, and LVEF rates ranged from only 0.2%/year among patients exercising for >9 minutes having none of three significant risk factors (among hypertension, diabetes, and smoking) to 1.6%/year among patients exercising 9 minutes and had no significant risk factors (P term mortality risk varies markedly in accordance with baseline CAD risk factors and functional capacity among patients with normal exercise SPECT-MPI studies. Further study is indicated to determine whether the prospective characterization of both short-term and long-term risks following the performance of stress SPECT-MPI leads to improved clinical management.

  4. Salivary caries risk factors in long-term event-free survivors of pediatric malignant diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dens, F L; Boute, P; Vinckier, F; Declerck, D

    1996-01-01

    In this study we demonstrated that caries prevalence and Plaque Index in long-term event-free pediatric oncology patients are related to Streptococcus mutans, Lactobacillus counts and buffer capacity obtained by chairside saliva tests. The scores showed a significant correlation between the microbiological findings and caries experience in both groups. The results were compared with a control group. A similarity in the results was found between the study and control groups. In a subgroup consisting of children who were diagnosed with cancer maximum two years before oral examinations, no significant differences with a control group was noticed. In this study we did not find any evidence of long-term effects on the studied salivary caries risk factors in children who are long-term event-free after cytotoxic treatment. Chairside tests seem to be useful in this patient group: they provide us information which can contribute to the determination of the individual caries risk, and help to motivate the patient and health care workers to maintain optimal oral hygiene.

  5. Long-Term Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monrad, Maria; Sajadieh, Ahmad; Christensen, Jeppe Schultz

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is the most common sustained arrhythmia and associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The few studies conducted on short-term effects of air pollution on episodes of atrial fibrillation indicates a positive association, though not consistently....... OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term impact of traffic-related air pollution on incidence of atrial fibrillation in the general population. METHODS: In the Danish Diet, Cancer, and Health cohort of 57,053 people aged 50-64 years at enrolment in 1993-1997, we identified 2,700 cases...... tendencies regarding effect modification of the association between NO2 and atrial fibrillation by sex, smoking, hypertension or myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: We found long-term residential traffic-related air pollution to be associated with higher risk of atrial fibrillation. Accordingly, the present...

  6. Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in London

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley Kingsborough

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk of residential overheating and mortality is increasing due to the effects of global warming and the urban heat island effect and needs to be addressed through climate change adaptation. ‘Adaptation pathways’ have become widely recognised as an adaptation planning approach, but they have not been utilised for long-term planning for city-scale urban heat risk management. This paper applies adaptation pathway methodology to urban heat risk management. We use spatially coherent downscaled probabilistic climate change projections that account for changes in urban-land cover and the urban heat island to appraise adaptation pathways and inform long-term adaptation planning. We demonstrate that adaptation strategies focusing solely on urban greening or building level adaptation based on current best practice are unlikely to cope with the increasing levels of risk. Air-conditioning may play a growing role in managing heat-risk; however, increasing air-conditioning will exacerbate the urban heat island and further increase the risks of overheating.

  7. Long Term Outcomes of BRCA1/BRCA2 Testing: Risk Reduction and Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Marc D.; Isaacs, Claudine; Graves, Kristi D.; Poggi, Elizabeth; Peshkin, Beth N.; Gell, Christy; Finch, Clinton; Kelly, Scott; Taylor, Kathryn L.; Perley, Lauren

    2012-01-01

    Purpose For BRCA1/BRCA2 gene testing to benefit public health, mutation carriers must initiate appropriate risk management strategies. There has been little research examining the long-term use and prospective predictors of the full range of risk management behaviors among women who have undergone BRCA1/2 testing. We evaluated long-term uptake and predictors of risk reducing mastectomy (RRM), risk reducing oophorectomy (RRBSO), chemoprevention and cancer screening among women at a mean of 5.3 years post testing. Patients and Methods Participants were 465 women who underwent BRCA1/2 testing. Prior to genetic counseling, we measured family/personal cancer history, sociodemographics, perceived risk, cancer-specific and general distress. We contacted patients at a mean of 5.3-years post-testing to measure use of: RRM; RRBSO; chemoprevention; breast and ovarian cancer screening. Results Among participants with intact breasts and/or ovaries at the time of testing, BRCA1/2 carriers were significantly more likely to obtain RRM (37%) and RRBSO (65%) compared to women who received uninformative (RRM=6.8%; RRBSO=13.3%) or negative (RRM=0%; RRBSO=1.9%) results. Among carriers, pre-counseling anxiety was associated with subsequent uptake of RRM. RRO was predicted by age. Carriers were also more likely have used breast cancer chemoprevention and have obtained a screening MRI. Conclusion This prospective evaluation of the uptake and predictors of long-term management outcomes provides a clearer picture of decision making in this population. By a mean of 5.3 years post-testing, more than 80% of carriers had obtained RRM, RRBSO or both, suggesting that BRCA1/2 testing is likely to favorably impact breast and ovarian cancer outcomes. PMID:21717445

  8. Does long-term coffee intake reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pimentel Gustavo D

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This review reports the evidence for a relation between long-term coffee intake and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Numerous epidemiological studies have evaluated this association and, at this moment, at least fourteen out of eighteen cohort studies revealed a substantially lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus with frequent coffee intake. Moderate coffee intake (≥4 cups of coffee/d of 150 mL or ≥400 mg of caffeine/d has generally been associated with a decrease in the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Besides, results of most studies suggest a dose-response relation, with greater reductions in type 2 diabetes mellitus risk with higher levels of coffee consumption. Several mechanisms underlying this protective effect, as well as the coffee components responsible for this association are suggested. Despite positive findings, it is still premature to recommend an increase in coffee consumption as a public health strategy to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus. More population-based surveys are necessary to clarify the long-term effects of decaffeinated and caffeinated coffee intake on the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

  9. Recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury and the risk of long term anal incontinence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, Jens; Rosthøj, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Women with an obstetric anal sphincter injury are concerned about the risk of recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury in their second pregnancy. Existing studies have failed to clarify whether recurrence of obstetric anal sphincter injury affects the risk of anal- and fecal incontin......BACKGROUND: Women with an obstetric anal sphincter injury are concerned about the risk of recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury in their second pregnancy. Existing studies have failed to clarify whether recurrence of obstetric anal sphincter injury affects the risk of anal- and fecal...... incontinence at long term follow up. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury influenced the risk of anal- and fecal incontinence more than 5 years after the second vaginal delivery. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a secondary analysis of data from a postal questionnaire study...

  10. Challenges Associated With Managing Suicide Risk in Long-Term Care Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Riley, Alisa; Nadorff, Michael R.; Conwell, Yeates; Edelstein, Barry

    2016-01-01

    Little information about suicidal ideation and behavior in long-term care (LTC) facilities is available. Nonetheless, the implementation of the Minimum Data Set 3.0 requires that LTC facilities screen their residents for suicide risk and have protocols in place to effectively manage residents’ responses. In this article, the authors briefly discuss the risk factors of suicide in the elderly and the problems that suicidal ideation and behavior pose in the LTC environment. The authors explain issues that arise when trying to manage suicide risk in the elderly LTC population with general, traditional approaches. These inherent issues make it difficult to develop an effective protocol for managing suicide risk in LTC facilities, leading the authors to propose their own framework for assessing and managing suicide risk in the LTC setting. PMID:27610048

  11. Long term warranty and after sales service concept, policies and cost models

    CERN Document Server

    Rahman, Anisur

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents concepts, policies and cost models for various long-term warranty and maintenance contracts. It offers several numerical examples for estimating costs to both the manufacturer and consumer. Long-term warranties and maintenance contracts are becoming increasingly popular, as these types of aftersales services provide assurance to consumers that they can enjoy long, reliable service, and protect them from defects and the potentially high costs of repairs. Studying long-term warranty and service contracts is important to manufacturers and consumers alike, as offering long-term warranty and maintenance contracts produce additional costs for manufacturers / service providers over the product’s service life. These costs must be factored into the price, or the manufacturer / dealer will incur losses instead of making a profit. On the other hand, the buyer / consumer needs to weigh the cost of maintaining it over its service life and to decide whether or not these policies are worth purchasing....

  12. Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlato, Giuseppe; Marrelli, Daniele; Accordini, Simone; Bencivenga, Maria; Di Leo, Alberto; Marchet, Alberto; Petrioli, Roberto; Zoppini, Giacomo; Muggeo, Michele; Roviello, Franco; de Manzoni, Giovanni

    2015-06-07

    curative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy. Survival curves in the two different histotypes (intestinal and mixed/diffuse) were superimposed in the first three years of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise, survival curves as a function of site (fundus vs body/antrum) started to diverge after the first year. On the contrary, survival curves differed among age classes from the very beginning, due to different post-operative mortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged 65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years; this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model was violated, as regards age, site and histology. To cope with this problem, multivariable survival analysis was performed by separately considering either the first two years of follow-up or subsequent years. Histology and site were significant predictors only after two years, while T and N, although significant both in the short-term and in the long-term, became less important in the second part of follow-up. Increasing age was associated with higher mortality in the first two years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival time when performing survival analysis allows to distinguish between short-term and long-term risk factors. Alternative statistical solutions could be to exclude post-operative mortality, to introduce in the model time-dependent covariates or to stratify on variables violating proportionality assumption.

  13. Modified periodontal risk assessment score: long-term predictive value of treatment outcomes. A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leininger, Matthieu; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc

    2010-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical predictive value of the periodontal risk assessment diagram surface (PRAS) score and the influence of patient compliance on the treatment outcomes. Thirty subjects suffering from periodontitis were re-examined 6-12 years after the initial diagnosis and periodontal treatments. The baseline PRAS score was calculated from the initial clinical and radiograph records. Patients were then classified into a low-to-moderate (0-20) or a high-risk group (>20). Patients who did not attend any supportive periodontal therapy were classified into a non-compliant group. PRAS and compliance were correlated to the mean tooth loss (TL)/year and the mean variation in the number of periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PPD) >4 mm. TL was 0.11 for the low-to-moderate-risk group and 0.26 for the high-risk group (p<0.05); PPD number reduction was 2.57 and 2.17, respectively, and bleeding on probing reduction was 6.7% and 23.3%, respectively. Comparing the compliance groups, the PPD number reduction was 3.39 in the compliant group and 1.40 in the non-compliant group (p<0.05). This study showed the reliability of PRAS in evaluating long-term TL and patient susceptibility to periodontal disease. Our data confirmed the positive influence of patient compliance on periodontal treatment outcomes.

  14. Household income and risk-of-poverty of parents of long-term childhood cancer survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mader, Luzius; Roser, Katharina; Baenziger, Julia; Tinner, Eva Maria; Scheinemann, Katrin; Kuehni, Claudia Elisabeth; Michel, Gisela

    2017-08-01

    Taking care of children diagnosed with cancer affects parents' professional life and may place the family at risk-of-poverty. We aimed to (i) compare the household income and risk-of-poverty of parents of childhood cancer survivors (CCS) to parents of the general population, and (ii) identify sociodemographic and cancer-related factors associated with risk-of-poverty. As part of the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we sent a questionnaire to parents of CCS aged 5-15 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis. Information on parents of the general population came from the Swiss Household Panel (parents with ≥1 child aged 5-15 years). Risk-of-poverty was defined as having a monthly household income of poverty. We included parents of 383 CCS and 769 control parent households. Parent-couples of CCS had a lower household income (Ptrend poverty (30.4% vs. 19.3%, P = 0.001) compared to control parent-couples. Household income and risk-of-poverty of single parents of CCS was similar to control single parents. Parents of CCS were at higher risk-of-poverty if they had only standard education (ORmother = 3.77 [where OR is odds ratio], confidence interval [CI]: 1.61-8.82; ORfather = 8.59, CI: 4.16-17.72) and were from the German language region (OR = 1.99, CI: 1.13-3.50). We found no cancer-related risk factors. Parents of long-term CCS reported lower household income and higher risk-of-poverty than control parents. Support strategies may be developed to mitigate parents' risk-of-poverty in the long term, particularly among parents with lower education. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk in Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia Relatives Identified by Cascade Screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Kasper Aalbæk; Christiansen, Morten Krogh; Schmidt, Morten

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia increases the risk of adverse cardiovascular events. Whether affected relatives of probands are at increased risk remains unknown. We aimed to evaluate the long-term cardiovascular risk in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia relatives...... with a low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) mutation who were all recommended statin therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were identified by cascade screening at Aarhus University Hospital during 1992-1994. A comparison cohort from the Danish general population was matched 10:1 to relatives by birth...... statins during their follow-up period. Despite frequent use of lipid-lowering medication, the adjusted hazard ratio of the primary end point was 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.17-2.33) in mutation-carrying relatives compared with the general population cohort. The risk in non-mutation-carrying relatives...

  16. The Long-term Risk of Epilepsy after Febrile Seizures in susceptible subgroups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Mogens; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Sidenius, Per Christian

    2007-01-01

    A family history of seizures, preexisting brain damage, or birth complications may modify the long-term risk of epilepsy after febrile seizures. The authors evaluated the association between febrile seizures and epilepsy in a population-based cohort of 1.54 million persons born in Denmark (1978......-up but was particularly high shortly after the first febrile seizure, especially in children who experienced early (late (>3 years of age) onset of febrile seizures. At 23 years of follow-up, the overall cumulative incidence of epilepsy after febrile seizures was 6.9% (95% confidence interval: 6.5, 7......, or low Apgar scores at 5 minutes....

  17. Physical work environment risk factors for long term sickness absence: prospective findings among a cohort of 5357 employees in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Thomas; Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl Bang

    2006-01-01

    of onset of long term sickness absence was increased by extreme bending or twisting of the neck or back, working mainly standing or squatting, lifting or carrying loads, and pushing or pulling loads. Significant interactions were found for three combinations of physical and psychosocial work environment...... risk factors among female employees (Ppushing or pulling loads increased the risk of onset of long term sickness absence. The study shows a potential for reducing long term sickness absence through modifying work...... of long term sickness absence, defined as receiving sickness absence compensation for eight consecutive weeks or more. RESULTS: 348 participants (6.9%) developed long term sickness absence during follow-up. Of these, 194 (55.7%) were women and 154 (44.3%) were men. For both female and male employees, risk...

  18. Cancer risk in long-term users of vitamin K antagonists: A population-based case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pottegård, Anton; Friis, Søren; Hallas, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    Some evidence suggests that long-term use of vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) has a cancer chemopreventive effect. Such an effect would have considerable implications in terms of understanding tumor biology. To evaluate if long-term VKA treatment influences the risk of developing cancer, we performed...

  19. Risk factors for long term complications among patients of endocrine clinic in Hospital Penang, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Wasif Gillani

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The prevalence of diabetes is on the increase and an estimated 239 million people worldwide are expected to have the condition by the year 2020 (1. Diabetes mellitus (DM represents a serious healthcare challenge. The aim of the study was to evaluate the patient clinical characteristics and risk factors for long term complications in the endocrine clinic of Hospital Penang, Malaysia.Methods: Descriptive Prospective cross-sectional study design was chosen. To achieve a power of 0.7 with alpha set at 0.05, 186 subjects were required for the study but researcher increase the sample to 297 in caseof drop out. Self-developed data collection form was used to collect the patient information.Results: 297 (100% patients were enrolled from OPD diabetic clinic of Hospital Palau Pinang. Among the sample 150 (50.5% were males and rest 147 (49.5% females. Malay males mean weight at the time of diagnosis significantly higher (pshowed that hypertension found among all the classes of diagnosis. Signifi cant variable are diagnosis class and medication consideration.Conclusion of the study suggested that majority of patients are at high risk of long-term complications and comorbidies. It has been found that increased rate of risk factors have been found among the study population and non-significant to sociodemographic differences.

  20. Offspring preterm birth and birth size are related to long-term risk of maternal diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naver, Klara Vinsand; Secher, Niels Jørgen; Ovesen, Per Glud

    2013-01-01

    of diabetes (n = 100,669). Registries were used to extract information on patients with a hospital or outpatient diagnosis of diabetes, subsequent deliveries, and death/emigration in the period from the index delivery until the end of 2006. The association between the maternal risk of diabetes and the index......The aim of the study is to investigate the association between gestational age, birth size, and the long-term risk of maternal diabetes. We conducted a nation-wide prospective follow-up study of the cohort of all Danish women with a singleton delivery in 1982/1983 (index delivery) and no history...... as having diabetes. The risk of maternal diabetes was positively associated with increasing index birth size and negatively associated with increasing duration of index gestation in both age strata. Among young women, the highest hazard ratios were found for the exposure category of large index offspring...

  1. An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rublee Dale

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of the cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor celecoxib (Celebrex, Pfizer Inc, USA have produced conflicting results. The recent controversy over the cardiovascular (CV risks of rofecoxib and other coxibs has renewed interest in the economic profile of celecoxib, the only coxib now available in the United States. The objective of our study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of celecoxib compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old osteoarthritis (OA patients with average risks of upper gastrointestinal (UGI complications who require chronic daily NSAID therapy. Methods We used decision analysis based on data from the literature to evaluate cost-effectiveness from a modified societal perspective over patients' lifetimes, with outcomes expressed as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained. Sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the impacts of advancing age, CV thromboembolic event risk, different analytic horizons and alternate treatment strategies after UGI adverse events. Results Our main findings were: 1 the base model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER for celecoxib versus nsNSAIDs was $31,097 per QALY; 2 the ICER per QALY was $19,309 for a model in which UGI ulcer and ulcer complication event risks increased with advancing age; 3 the ICER per QALY was $17,120 in sensitivity analyses combining serious CV thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, CV death risks with base model assumptions. Conclusion Our model suggests that chronic celecoxib is cost-effective versus nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old OA patients with average risks of UGI events.

  2. Assessing the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitfield, R.G. (Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Wallsten, T.S. (North Carolina Univ., Chapel Hill, NC (United States). L.L. Thurstone Psychometric Lab.); Winkler, R.L. (Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Fuqua School of Business); Richmond, H.M. (Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States). O

    1991-07-01

    The research described here is part of a larger risk assessment project sponsored by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The purpose of this research is to characterize scientific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children aged 8 through 16 and adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone exposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in southern California and the Northeast. The qualitative and quantitative judgments resulting from the work will not be used in the ongoing review of the ozone primary ambient air quality standard. They will instead be used to inform policymakers and the public about the possible health implications of long-term exposure to ozone. Our measure of injury is the incidence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the lung. The probabilities over population response rates were elicited from six health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury. We describe our approach and present the results in the form of judgmental probability distributions and associated qualitative comments over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced by exposure to ozone. 19 refs., 15 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Soil heavy metal dynamics and risk assessment under long-term land use and cultivation conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuelei; Xu, Yiming

    2015-01-01

    Long-term agricultural development and cultivation conversions affect soil heavy metal balance and the regional environmental safety. In this study, heavy metal parameters were used to identify changes in soil properties in response to land use and cultivation conversions. The integrated soil quality index, which involves seven heavy metal indices, was proposed to assess the environmental risk of long-term human activities in Northeast China. We used the remote sensing and geographical data for the four-term land use distribution from 1979 to 2009 to identify the spatial patterns of regional land use conversions. Then, 41 samples from the top 20 cm of the soil at sites corresponding to these seven types of conversions were collected (permanent dry land, dry land converted from wetland, dry land converted from forest, permanent wetland, permanent forest, paddy land converted from dry land, and paddy land converted from wetland). Based on the local soil properties and tillage practices, the following seven heavy metal parameters were employed: Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb), and Zinc (Zn). The conversion of farmland from wetland resulted in an increase in the concentration of Pb and Cr in the soil. In contrast, the concentrations of Zn, Cu, Ni, and Cd decreased when wetland was converted into farmland because the tillage practices washed these heavy metals away. During the conversion of dry land and paddy land to wetland, the levels of Pb increased by approximately 28.6% and 24.7%, respectively. Under the same conditions, the concentration of As increased by 32.5% and 14.1%, respectively. The integrated index also demonstrated that the farmlands were not contaminated by the heavy metals during long-term agricultural development.

  4. The Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model (ARTM) - Validation of a long-term atmospheric dispersion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettrich, Sebastian; Wildermuth, Hans; Strobl, Christopher; Wenig, Mark

    2016-04-01

    In the last couple of years, the Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model (ARTM) has been developed by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) and the Society for Plant and Reactor Security (GRS). ARTM is an atmospheric dispersion model for continuous long-term releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere, based on the Lagrangian particle model. This model, developed in the first place as a more realistic replacement for the out-dated Gaussian plume models, is currently being optimised for further scientific purposes to study atmospheric dispersion in short-range scenarios. It includes a diagnostic wind field model, allows for the application of building structures and multiple sources (including linear, 2-and 3-dimensional source geometries), and considers orography and surface roughness. As an output it calculates the activity concentration, dry and wet deposition and can model also the radioactive decay of Rn-222. As such, ARTM requires to undergo an intense validation process. While for short-term and short-range models, which were mainly developed for examining nuclear accidents or explosions, a few measurement data-sets are available for validation, data-sets for validating long-term models are very sparse and the existing ones mostly prove to be not applicable for validation. Here we present a strategy for the validation of long-term Lagrangian particle models based on the work with ARTM. In our validation study, the first part we present is a comprehensive analysis of the model sensitivities on different parameters like e.g. (simulation grid size resolution, starting random number, amount of simulation particles, etc.). This study provides a good estimation for the uncertainties of the simulation results and consequently can be used to generate model outputs comparable to the available measurements data at various distances from the emission source. This comparison between measurement data from selected scenarios and simulation results

  5. Hospital-Diagnosed Pertussis Infection in Children and Long-term Risk of Epilepsy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Morten; Thygesen, Sandra K; Østergaard, John R

    2015-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: Pertussis is associated with encephalopathy and seizures in infants. However, the risk of childhood epilepsy following pertussis is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether pertussis is associated with the long-term risk of epilepsy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We used individually...... with pertussis, matched on sex and year of birth. EXPOSURES: Inpatient or hospital-based outpatient diagnosis of pertussis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cumulative incidence and hazard ratio of time to hospital-based epilepsy diagnosis (pertussis cohort vs general population cohort), adjusted for birth year, sex......, maternal history of epilepsy, presence of congenital malformations, and gestational age. Unique personal identifiers permitted unambiguous data linkage and complete follow-up for death, emigration, and hospital contacts. RESULTS: We identified 4700 patients with pertussis (48% male), of whom 90 developed...

  6. Lower Risk of Stroke after Deformity Surgery: Long Term Benefit Demonstrated by a National Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang-Chung Huang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the long-term risk of stroke in adult patients with spinal deformity. Specifically, the study addressed the possible protective effect of surgery for spinal deformity against stroke. Methods: Using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD, a monopolistic national database in Taiwan, this retrospective cohort study analyzed the incidence of stroke in patients with adult spinal deformity (ASD in a 11-year period. A total of 13,503 patients, between 55 and 75 years old, were identified for the diagnosis of ASD. The patients were grouped into two: the surgical group (n = 10,439 who received spinal fusion surgery, and the control group (n = 2124 who received other medical treatment. The incidence rates of all subsequent cerebrovascular accidents, including ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, were calculated. Hazard ratios for stroke were calculated use a full cohort and a propensity score matched cohort. Adjustments for co-morbidities that may predispose to stroke, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, arrhythmia and coronary heart disease were conducted. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the risk of stroke between the two groups. Results: During the total observation period of 50,450 person-years, the incidence rate of stroke in the surgical group (15.55 per 1000 person-years was significantly lower than that of the control group (20.89 per 1000 person-years, p < 0.001. Stroke was more likely to occur in the control group than in the surgical group (crude hazard ratio 1.34, p < 0.001; adjusted HR 1.28, p < 0.001, by a propensity score matched model. Conclusions: In this national cohort of more than 13,000 ASD patients covering 10 years, stroke was approximately 25% less likely to happen in patients who underwent spinal fusion surgery than those who received medical management. Therefore, spinal fusion surgery may provide a protective effect against stroke

  7. Risk factors for long term complications among patients of endocrine clinic in Hospital Penang, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Wasif Gillani

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The prevalence of diabetes is on the increase and an estimated 239 million people worldwide are expected to have the condition by the year 2020 (1. Diabetes mellitus (DM represents a serious healthcare challenge. The aim of the study was to evaluate the patient clinical characteristics and risk factors for long term complications in the endocrine clinic of Hospital Penang, Malaysia.Methods: Descriptive Prospective cross-sectional study design was chosen. To achieve a power of 0.7 with alpha set at 0.05, 186 subjects were required for the study but researcher increase the sample to 297 in caseof drop out. Self-developed data collection form was used to collect the patient information.Results: 297 (100% patients were enrolled from OPD diabetic clinic of Hospital Palau Pinang. Among the sample 150 (50.5% were males and rest 147 (49.5% females. Malay males mean weight at the time of diagnosis significantly higher (p<0.001, as compared to other ethnics, same results found among Malay females (p<0.001. Findings suggested increased number of risk factors among the study population. Finding alsoshowed that hypertension found among all the classes of diagnosis. Signifi cant variable are diagnosis class and medication consideration.Conclusion of the study suggested that majority of patients are at high risk of long-term complications and comorbidies. It has been found that increased rate of risk factors have been found among the study population and non-significant to sociodemographic differences.

  8. Early childhood family intervention and long-term obesity prevention among high-risk minority youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotman, Laurie Miller; Dawson-McClure, Spring; Huang, Keng-Yen; Theise, Rachelle; Kamboukos, Dimitra; Wang, Jing; Petkova, Eva; Ogedegbe, Gbenga

    2012-03-01

    To test the hypothesis that family intervention to promote effective parenting in early childhood affects obesity in preadolescence. Participants were 186 minority youth at risk for behavior problems who enrolled in long-term follow-up studies after random assignment to family intervention or control condition at age 4. Follow-up Study 1 included 40 girls at familial risk for behavior problems; Follow-up Study 2 included 146 boys and girls at risk for behavior problems based on teacher ratings. Family intervention aimed to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems during early childhood; it did not focus on physical health. BMI and health behaviors were measured an average of 5 years after intervention in Study 1 and 3 years after intervention in Study 2. Youth randomized to intervention had significantly lower BMI at follow-up relative to controls (Study 1 P = .05; Study 2 P = .006). Clinical impact is evidenced by lower rates of obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile) among intervention girls and boys relative to controls (Study 2: 24% vs 54%, P = .002). There were significant intervention-control group differences on physical and sedentary activity, blood pressure, and diet. Two long-term follow-up studies of randomized trials show that relative to controls, youth at risk for behavior problems who received family intervention at age 4 had lower BMI and improved health behaviors as they approached adolescence. Efforts to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems early in life may contribute to the reduction of obesity and health disparities.

  9. Modeling the long-term kinetics of Salmonella survival on dry pet food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambertini, Elisabetta; Mishra, Abhinav; Guo, Miao; Cao, Huilin; Buchanan, Robert L; Pradhan, Abani K

    2016-09-01

    Due to multiple outbreaks and large-scale product recalls, Salmonella has emerged as a priority pathogen in dry pet food and treats. However, little data are available to quantify risks posed by these classes of products to both pets and their owners. Specifically, the kinetics of Salmonella survival on complex pet food matrices are not available. This study measured the long-term kinetics of Salmonella survival on a dry pet food under storage conditions commonly encountered during production, retail, and in households (aw pet foods and treats was used to inoculate commercial dry dog food. Salmonella was enumerated on non-selective (BHI) and selective (XLD and BS) media. Results at 570 days indicated an initial relatively rapid decline (up to 54 days), followed by a much slower extended decline phase. The Weibull model provided a satisfactory fit for time series of Log-transformed Salmonella counts from all three media (δ: mean 4.65 day/Log (CFU/g); p: mean 0.364 on BHI). This study provides a survival model that can be applied in quantitative risk assessment models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  11. Technical Assistance Model for Long-Term Systems Change: Three State Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzak, Christina; Hurth, Joicey; Lucas, Anne; Marshall, Jacqueline; Terrell, Adriane; Jones, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    The National Early Childhood Technical Assistance Center (NECTAC) Technical Assistance (TA) Model for Long-Term Systems Change (LTSC) is grounded in conceptual frameworks in the literature on systems change and systems thinking. The NECTAC conceptual framework uses a logic model approach to change developed specifically for states' infant and…

  12. Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Steven Ahl

    2007-01-01

    Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

  13. Goals and Characteristics of Long-Term Care Programs: An Analytic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Kathryn L.; Rose, Charles L.

    1989-01-01

    Used medico-social analytic model to compare five long-term care programs: Skilled Nursing Facility-Intermediate Care Facility (SNF-ICF) homes, ICF homes, foster homes, day hospitals, and home care. Identified similarities and differences among programs. Preliminary findings suggest that model is useful in the evaluation and design of long-term…

  14. A model of competition between employed, short-term and long-term unemployed job searchers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broersma, Lourens

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a model in which not only employed job search is endogenized, but also the phenomenon that long-term unemployed may becomediscouraged and stop searching for a job. When this model is applied to Dutch flow data, we find that this discouragement particularly took place in the early

  15. Risk factors for deterioration of long-term liver function after radiofrequency ablation therapy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Koichi; Honda; Masataka; Seike; Junya; Oribe; Mizuki; Endo; Mie; Arakawa; Hiroki; Syo; Masao; Iwao; Masanori; Tokoro; Junko; Nishimura; Tetsu; Mori; Tsutomu; Yamashita; Satoshi; Fukuchi; Toyokichi; Muro; Kazunari; Murakami

    2016-01-01

    AIM:To identify factors that influence long-term liver function following radiofrequency ablation(RFA)in patients with viral hepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma.METHODS:A total of 123 patients with hepatitis B virus-or hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)(n=12 and n=111,respectively)were enrolled.Cumulative rates of worsening Child-Pugh(CP)scores(defined as a 2-point increase)were examined.RESULTS:CP score worsening was confirmed in 22patients over a mean follow-up period of 43.8±26.3mo.Multivariate analysis identified CP class,platelet count,and aspartate aminotransferase levels as significant predictors of a worsening CP score(P=0.000,P=0.011 and P=0.024,respectively).In contrast,repeated RFA was not identified as a risk factor for liver function deterioration.CONCLUSION:Long-term liver function following RFA was dependent on liver functional reserve,the degreeof fibrosis present,and the activity of the hepatitis condition for this cohort.Therefore,in order to maintain liver function for an extended period following RFA,suppression of viral hepatitis activity is important even after the treatment of HCC.

  16. Long term, continuous exposure to panobinostat induces terminal differentiation and long term survival in the TH-MYCN neuroblastoma mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldeck, Kelly; Cullinane, Carleen; Ardley, Kerry; Shortt, Jake; Martin, Ben; Tothill, Richard W; Li, Jason; Johnstone, Ricky W; McArthur, Grant A; Hicks, Rodney J; Wood, Paul J

    2016-07-01

    Neuroblastoma is the most common extra-cranial malignancy in childhood and accounts for ∼15% of childhood cancer deaths. Amplification of MYCN in neuroblastoma is associated with aggressive disease and predicts for poor prognosis. Novel therapeutic approaches are therefore essential to improving patient outcomes in this setting. The histone deacetylases are known to interact with N-Myc and regulate numerous cellular processes via epigenetic modulation, including differentiation. In this study, we used the TH-MYCN mouse model of neuroblastoma to investigate the antitumor activity of the pan-HDAC inhibitor, panobinostat. In particular we sought to explore the impact of long term, continuous panobinostat exposure on the epigenetically driven differentiation process. Continuous treatment of tumor bearing TH-MYCN transgenic mice with panobinostat for nine weeks led to a significant improvement in survival as compared with mice treated with panobinostat for a three-week period. Panobinostat induced rapid tumor regression with no regrowth observed following a nine-week treatment period. Initial tumor response was associated with apoptosis mediated via upregulation of BMF and BIM. The process of terminal differentiation of neuroblastoma into benign ganglioneuroma, with a characteristic increase in S100 expression and reduction of N-Myc expression, occurred following prolonged exposure to the drug. RNA-sequencing analysis of tumors from treated animals confirmed significant upregulation of gene pathways associated with apoptosis and differentiation. Together our data demonstrate the potential of panobinostat as a novel therapeutic strategy for high-risk neuroblastoma patients.

  17. Orthostatic Hypotension and the Long-Term Risk of Dementia: A Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolters, Frank J.; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U. S.; Hofman, Albert; Ikram, M. Arfan

    2016-01-01

    .00–1.17, p = 0.06). The risk of dementia was particularly increased in those with OH who lacked a compensatory increase in heart rate (within lowest quartile of heart rate response: aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04–1.85, p-interaction = 0.05). Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding despite rigorous adjustments, and potentially limited generalisability to populations not of European descent. Conclusions In this population predominantly of European descent, OH was associated with an increase in long-term risk of dementia. PMID:27727284

  18. Long-term noise exposure and the risk for type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzhambov, Angel Mario

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus is one of the leading causes for disability and mortality in modern societies. Apart from personal factors its incidence might be influenced by environmental risks such as air pollution and noise. This paper reports a systematic review and meta-analysis on the risk for type 2 diabetes due to long-term noise exposure. Electronic searches in MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Internet yielded 9 relevant studies (5 for residential and 4 for occupational exposure). They were checked against a predefined list of safeguards against bias producing individual quality scores, which were then fed to MetaXL to conduct a quality effects meta-analysis. People exposed at their homes to roughly L(den) > 60 dB had 22% higher risk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.37) for type 2 diabetes in comparison to those exposed to L(den) risk (95% CI: 1.05-1.35) for L(den) = 60-70 dB versus L(den) risk (relative risk [RR] = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.78-1.06) for 85 dB. There was no heterogeneity in the two groups (I² = 0.00). The results should be interpreted with caution due to methodological discrepancies across the studies; however, they are indicative of the close links that noise pollution might have not only to cardiovascular diseases but to endocrine dysfunction as well.

  19. The Short- and Long-Term Risk of Stroke after Herpes Zoster: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuechun; Guan, Yeming; Hou, Liang; Huang, Haili; Liu, Hongjuan; Li, Chuanwen; Zhu, Yingying; Tao, Xingyong; Wang, Qingsong

    2016-01-01

    Background Accumulating evidence indicates that stroke risk may be increased following herpes zoster. The aim of this study is to perform a meta-analysis of current literature to systematically analyze and quantitatively estimate the short and long-term effects of herpes zoster on the risk of stroke. Methods Embase, PubMed and Cochrane library databases were searched for relevant studies up to March 2016. Studies were selected for analysis based on certain inclusion and exclusion criteria. Relative risks with 95% confidence interval (CI) were extracted to assess the association between herpes zoster and stroke. Results A total of 8 articles were included in our analysis. The present meta-analysis showed that the risks of stroke after herpes zoster were 2.36 (95% CI: 2.17–2.56) for first 2 weeks, 1.56 (95% CI: 1.46–1.66) for first month, 1.17 (95% CI: 1.13–1.22) for first year, and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02–1.16) for more than 1 year, respectively. Conclusion The results of our study demonstrated that herpes zoster was associated with a higher risk of stroke, but the risks decreased along with the time after herpes zoster. PMID:27768762

  20. Attention and available long-term memory in an activation-based model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The influence of attention on memorizing related items and on available long-term memory (ALTM) was explored,showing that N400 of no-memory items was more negative than that of the memory item.The results of the category comparison task indicated that information processing under attention-driven in WM determined the availability of related long-term memory,i.e.,specific content,which was formerly concerned or ignored,yielding different indirect semantic priming effects.These indicate that the orientation of conceptual attention leads the related representations of LTM to diverse activation patterns,supporting the activation-based model.

  1. Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas eVoss

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

  2. Long-term risk analysis associated with nuclear waste disposal in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, A. L.; Davis, D. R.

    1979-01-01

    An assessment and verification of previous analytic results on the long term risk of earth reentry for hazardous payloads is presented. The two areas were studied: (1) stability of nominal, near-circular storage orbits in the regions between Venus and earth and between earth and Mars, and (2) probability of earth reentry for off-nominal planet-crossing orbits resulting from deployment system failures. In the first area, numerical integrations of the equations of motion are compared with stability predications based on secular perturbation theory. The agreement is good in terms of the heliocentric distances covered and the general behavior of the orbital history, although certain near-resonance situations can lead to difficulty. In the second area, a Monte Carlo simulation of orbital evolution is used and the results compared with Opik's analytic theory of planetary encounters and collision statistics, with data verified to within a close order-of-magnitude.

  3. [Risks of drug-nutrient interaction for the elderly in long-term care institutions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Jessica Sereno; Salci, Maria Aparecida; Radovanovic, Cremilde Aparecida Trindade; Salci, Tania Pereira; Torres, Maricy Morbin; Carreira, Lígia

    2012-09-01

    This study was aimed at verifying the risks of drug-nutrient interactions in the elderly residents of a long-term care institution. Descriptive study of quantitative approach, performed in 73 elderly people. Data collection occurred in 2008 through analysis of medical records, diet history and evaluation of the BMI. Data evidenced that the drugs more frequently used were the ones for nervous and cardiovascular systems, totaling approximately 66% of the prescriptions; among the 375 drugs prescribed 166 make some type of interaction, 32.0% reduce the effect of drug absorption when there is use with caffeine and 14.3% reduce the B12 vitamin absorption. Taking several drugs of continuous use may cause damage to the absorption of nutrients. The action of the health team becomes vital, through careful evaluation of the administered drugs, diet and interaction between them, to benefit the elderly with a better use of the therapeutics and improvement of the nutritional conditions.

  4. Recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury and the risk of long-term anal incontinence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, Jens; Rosthøj, Susanne; Sakse, Abelone

    2017-06-01

    Women with an obstetric anal sphincter injury are concerned about the risk of recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury in their second pregnancy. Existing studies have failed to clarify whether the recurrence of obstetric anal sphincter injury affects the risk of anal and fecal incontinence at long-term follow-up. The objective of the study was to evaluate whether recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury influenced the risk of anal and fecal incontinence more than 5 years after the second vaginal delivery. We performed a secondary analysis of data from a postal questionnaire study in women with obstetric anal sphincter injury in the first delivery and 1 subsequent vaginal delivery. The questionnaire was sent to all Danish women who fulfilled inclusion criteria and had 2 vaginal deliveries 1997-2005. We performed uni- and multivariable analyses to assess how recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury affects the risk of anal incontinence. In 1490 women with a second vaginal delivery after a first delivery with obstetric anal sphincter injury, 106 had a recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury. Of these, 50.0% (n = 53) reported anal incontinence compared with 37.9% (n = 525) of women without recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury. Fecal incontinence was present in 23.6% (n = 25) of women with recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury and in 13.2% (n = 182) of women without recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury. After adjustment for third- or fourth-degree obstetric anal sphincter injury in the first delivery, maternal age at answering the questionnaire, birthweight of the first and second child, years since first and second delivery, and whether anal incontinence was present before the second pregnancy, the risk of flatal and fecal incontinence was still increased in patients with recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury (adjusted odds ratio, 1.68 [95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.70), P = .03, and adjusted odds ratio, 1.98 [95% confidence interval, 1

  5. Understanding the Risk Factors and Long-Term Consequences of Cisplatin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury: An Observational Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeenat Yousuf Bhat

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a well-known complication of cisplatin-based chemotherapy; however, its impact on long-term patient survival is unclear. We sought to determine the incidence and risk factors for development of cisplatin-associated AKI and its impact on long-term renal function and patient survival. We identified 233 patients who received 629 cycles of high-dose cisplatin (99±9mg/m2 for treatment of head and neck cancer between 2005 and 2011. These subjects were reviewed for development of AKI. Cisplatin nephrotoxicity (CN was defined as persistent rise in serum creatinine, with a concomitant decline in serum magnesium and potassium, in absence of use of nephrotoxic agents and not reversed with hydration. All patients were hydrated per protocol and none had baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR via CKD-EPI<60mL/min/1.73m2. The patients were grouped based on development of AKI and were staged for levels of injury, per KDIGO-AKI definition. Renal function was assessed via serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR via CKD-EPI at baseline, 6- and 12-months. Patients with AKI were screened for the absence of nephrotoxic medication use and a temporal decline in serum potassium and magnesium levels. Logistic regression models were constructed to determine risk factors for cisplatin-associated AKI. Twelve-month renal function was compared among groups using ANOVA. Kaplan-Maier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to study its impact on patient survival. Of 233 patients, 158(68% developed AKI; 77 (49% developed stage I, 55 (35% developed stage II, and 26 (16% developed stage III AKI. Their serum potassium and magnesium levels correlated negatively with level of injury (p<0.05. African American race was a significant risk factor for cisplatin-associated AKI, OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.3 to 6.3 and 2.8 (95% CI 1.2 to 6.7 patients with stage III AKI had the lowest eGFR value at 12 months (p = 0.05 and long-term

  6. Technical Assistance Model for Long-Term Systems Change: Three State Examples. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzak, Christina; Goode, Sue; Hurth, Joicey; Lucas, Anne; Marshall, Jacqueline; Terrell, Adriane; Jones, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    The NECTAC Technical Assistance (TA) Model for Long-Term Systems Change (LTSC) recognizes that components of a state system are highly interactive and changes at one level are not likely to be sustained without supportive changes at all related levels. Improved child and family outcomes require: intervention practices that are research-based,…

  7. Long-term perspectives on world metal use - a model-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren DP; Strengers BJ; Vries HJM de; MNV

    1999-01-01

    In this report, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This

  8. User Acceptance of Long-Term Evolution (LTE) Services: An Application of Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eunil; Kim, Ki Joon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated path model in order to explore user acceptance of long-term evolution (LTE) services by examining potential causal relationships between key psychological factors and user intention to use the services. Design/methodology/approach: Online survey data collected from 1,344 users are analysed…

  9. Modelling long-term (300ka) upland catchment response to multiple lava damming events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gorp, W.; Temme, A. J. A. M.; Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Landscapes respond in complex ways to external drivers such as base level change due to damming events. In this study, landscape evolution modelling was used to understand and analyse long-term catchment response to lava damming events. PalaeoDEM reconstruction of a small Turkish catchment (45km(2))

  10. Modelling long-term (300¿ka) upland catchment response to multiple lava damming events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorp, van W.; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Landscapes respond in complex ways to external drivers such as base level change due to damming events. In this study, landscape evolution modelling was used to understand and analyse long-term catchment response to lava damming events. PalaeoDEM reconstruction of a small Turkish catchment (45¿km2)

  11. Model validation through long-term promising sustainable maize/pigeon pea residue management in Malawi

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mwale, C.D.; Kabambe, V.H.; Sakale, W.D.; Giller, K.E.; Kauwa, A.A.; Ligowe, I.; Kamalongo, D.

    2013-01-01

    In the 2005/2006 season, the Model Validation Through Long-Term Promising Sustainable Maize/Pigeon Pea Residue Management experiment was in the 11th year at Chitedze and Chitala, and in the 8th year at Makoka and Zombwe. The experiment was a split-plot design with cropping system as the main plot an

  12. Model-based workflows for optimal long-term reservoir mangement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwenburgh, O.; Egberts, P.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.

    2014-01-01

    Life-cycle optimization is the process of finding field operation strategies that aim to optimize recovery or economic value with a long-term (years to decades) horizon. A reservoir simulation model is therefore generally appropriate and sufficient to explore the impact of different recovery

  13. Febrile seizures: an appropriate-aged model suitable for long-term studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baram, Tallie Z.; Gerth, Angelika; Schultz, Linda

    2012-01-01

    Seizures induced by fever are the most prevalent age-specific seizures in infants and young children. Whether they result in long-term sequelae such as neuronal loss and temporal lobe epilepsy is controversial. Prospective studies of human febrile seizures have found no adverse effects on the developing brain. However, adults with temporal lobe epilepsy and associated limbic cell loss frequently have a history of prolonged febrile seizures in early life. These critical issues may be resolved using appropriate animal models. Published models of hyperthermic seizures have used ‘adolescent’ and older rats, have yielded a low percentage of animals with actual seizures, or have suffered from a high mortality, rendering them unsuitable for long-term studies. This article describes the establishment of a model of febrile seizures using the infant rat. Hyperthermia was induced by a regulated stream of mildly heated air, and the seizures were determined by both behavioral and electroencephalographic (EEG) criteria. Stereotyped seizures were generated in 93.6% of 10–11-day-old rats. EEG correlates of these; seizures were not evident in cortical recordings, but were clearly present in depth recordings from the amygdala and hippocampus. Prolonged febrile seizures could be induced without bums, yielding a low mortality (11%) and long-term survival. In summary, an infant rat paradigm of EEG-confirmed, hyperthermia-induced seizures which is suitable for long-term studies is described. This model should be highly valuable for studying the mechanisms and sequelae of febrile seizures. PMID:9051269

  14. Long-term risk of seizures in adult survivors of sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reznik, Michael E; Merkler, Alexander E; Mahta, Ali; Murthy, Santosh B; Claassen, Jan; Kamel, Hooman

    2017-09-06

    To examine the association between sepsis and the long-term risk of seizures. We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using administrative claims data from all emergency department visits and hospitalizations at nonfederal acute care hospitals in California, Florida, and New York from 2005 to 2013. Using previously validated diagnosis codes, we identified all adult patients hospitalized with sepsis. Our outcome was any emergency department visit or hospitalization for seizure. Poisson regression and demographic data were used to calculate age-, sex-, and race-standardized incidence rate ratios (IRR). To confirm our findings, we used a matched cohort of hospitalized patients without sepsis for comparison and additionally assessed claims data from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. We identified 842,735 patients with sepsis. The annual incidence of seizure was 1.29% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27%-1.30%) in patients with sepsis vs 0.16% (95% CI 0.16%-0.16%) in the general population (IRR 4.98; 95% CI 4.92-5.04). A secondary analysis using matched hospitalized patients confirmed these findings (IRR 4.33; 95% CI 4.13-4.55), as did a separate analysis of Medicare beneficiaries, in whom we found a similar strength of association (IRR 2.72; 95% CI 2.60-2.83), as we did in patients ≥65 years of age in our primary statewide data (IRR 2.83; 95% CI 2.78-2.88). We found that survivors of sepsis faced a significantly higher long-term risk of seizures than both the general population and other hospitalized patients. Our findings suggest that sepsis is associated with pathways that lead to permanent neurologic sequelae. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  15. Long-term effects of ionizing radiation on gene expression in a zebrafish model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lahcen Jaafar

    Full Text Available Understanding how initial radiation injury translates into long-term effects is an important problem in radiation biology. Here, we define a set of changes in the transcription profile that are associated with the long-term response to radiation exposure. The study was performed in vivo using zebrafish, an established radiobiological model organism. To study the long-term response, 24 hour post-fertilization embryos were exposed to 0.1 Gy (low dose or 1.0 Gy (moderate dose of whole-body gamma radiation and allowed to develop for 16 weeks. Liver mRNA profiles were then analyzed using the Affymetrix microarray platform, with validation by quantitative PCR. As a basis for comparison, 16-week old adults were exposed at the same doses and analyzed after 4 hours. Statistical analysis was performed in a way to minimize the effects of multiple comparisons. The responses to these two treatment regimes differed greatly: 360 probe sets were associated primarily with the long-term response, whereas a different 2062 probe sets were associated primarily with the response when adults of the same age were irradiated 4 hours before exposure. Surprisingly, a ten-fold difference in radiation dose (0.1 versus 1.0 Gy had little effect. Analysis at the gene and pathway level indicated that the long-term response includes the induction of cytokine and inflammatory regulators and transcription and growth factors. The acute response includes the induction of p53 target genes and modulation of the hypoxia-induced transcription factor-C/EBP axis. Results help define genes and pathways affected in the long-term, low and moderate dose radiation response and differentiate them from those affected in an acute response in the same tissue.

  16. A Hybrid Model for the Mid-Long Term Runoff Forecasting by Evolutionary Computaion Techniques

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zou Xiu-fen; Kang Li-shan; Cae Hong-qing; Wu Zhi-jian

    2003-01-01

    The mid-long term hydrology forecasting is one of most challenging problems in hydrological studies. This paper proposes an efficient dynamical system prediction model using evolutionary computation techniques. The new model overcomes some disadvantages of conventional hydrology fore casting ones. The observed data is divided into two parts: the slow "smooth and steady" data, and the fast "coarse and fluctuation" data. Under the divide and conquer strategy, the behavior of smooth data is modeled by ordinary differential equations based on evolutionary modeling, and that of the coarse data is modeled using gray correlative forecasting method. Our model is verified on the test data of the mid-long term hydrology forecast in tbe northeast region of China. The experimental results show that the model is superior to gray system prediction model (GSPM).

  17. Private participation in infrastructure: A risk analysis of long-term contracts in power sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceran, Nisangul

    The objective of this dissertation is to assess whether the private participation in energy sector through long term contracting, such as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) type investments, is an efficient way of promoting efficiency in the economy. To this end; the theoretical literature on the issue is discussed, the experience of several developing countries are examined, and a BOT project, which is undertaken by the Enron company in Turkey, has been studied in depth as a case study. Different risk analysis techniques, including sensitivity and probabilistic risk analysis with the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method have been applied to assess the financial feasibility and risks of the case study project, and to shed light on the level of rent-seeking in the BOT agreements. Although data on rent seeking and corruption is difficult to obtain, the analysis of case study investment using the sensitivity and MCS method provided some information that can be used in assessing the level of rent-seeking in BOT projects. The risk analysis enabled to test the sustainability of the long-term BOT contracts through the analysis of projects financial feasibility with and without the government guarantees in the project. The approach of testing the sustainability of the project under different scenarios is helpful to understand the potential costs and contingent liabilities for the government and project's impact on a country's overall economy. The results of the risk analysis made by the MCS method for the BOT project used as the case study strongly suggest that, the BOT projects does not serve to the interest of the society and transfers substantial amount of public money to the private companies, implying severe governance problems. It is found that not only government but also private sector may be reluctant about full privatization of infrastructure due to several factors such as involvement of large sunk costs, very long time period for returns to be received, political and

  18. Long-term effects of large-volume liposuction on metabolic risk factors for coronary heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, B Selma; Cohen, Samuel; Reeds, Dominic; Young, V Leroy; Klein, Samuel

    2008-12-01

    Abdominal obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD). Although we previously found that using liposuction surgery to remove abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) did not result in metabolic benefits, it is possible that postoperative inflammation masked the beneficial effects. Therefore, this study provides a long-term evaluation of a cohort of subjects from our original study. Body composition and metabolic risk factors for CHD, including oral glucose tolerance, insulin resistance, plasma lipid profile, and blood pressure were evaluated in seven obese (39 +/- 2 kg/m(2)) women before and at 10, 27, and 84-208 weeks after large-volume liposuction. Liposuction surgery removed 9.4 +/- 1.8 kg of body fat (16 +/- 2% of total fat mass; 6.1 +/- 1.4 kg decrease in body weight), primarily from abdominal SAT; body composition and weight remained the same from 10 through 84-208 weeks. Metabolic endpoints (oral glucose tolerance, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, blood pressure and plasma triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol concentrations) obtained at 10 through 208 weeks were not different from baseline and did not change over time. These data demonstrate that removal of a large amount of abdominal SAT by using liposuction does not improve CHD metabolic risk factors associated with abdominal obesity, despite a long-term reduction in body fat.

  19. Long-term risk of carotid restenosis in patients randomly assigned to endovascular treatment or endarterectomy in the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS): long-term follow-up of a randomised trial.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Bonati, Leo H

    2009-10-01

    In the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS), early recurrent carotid stenosis was more common in patients assigned to endovascular treatment than it was in patients assigned to endarterectomy (CEA), raising concerns about the long-term effectiveness of endovascular treatment. We aimed to investigate the long-term risks of restenosis in patients included in CAVATAS.

  20. Self-reported noise exposure as a risk factor for long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Lund, Thomas;

    2009-01-01

    -quarter and three-quarters of their time at work had an increased risk of 43% (CI: 10-85%) for sickness absence of two weeks or longer compared to men that reported never to be exposed to loud noise. Men that reported to be little/rarely exposed to loud noise had an increased risk of 37% (CI: 7-76%). Men...... that reported to be exposed to loud noise more than three-quarters of their time at work did not have an increased risk of sickness absence. This latter result might be due a healthy worker effect and/or more frequent use of hearing protection in this group. Along with evidence from previous studies......Self-reported noise exposure is on the rise in Denmark. Little is known, however, about the social consequences, including sickness absence, of noise exposure. The aim of this paper was to investigate the association between self-reported noise exposure and long-term sickness absence...

  1. Long-term noise exposure and the risk for type 2 diabetes: A meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel Mario Dzhambov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes mellitus is one of the leading causes for disability and mortality in modern societies. Apart from personal factors its incidence might be influenced by environmental risks such as air pollution and noise. This paper reports a systematic review and meta-analysis on the risk for type 2 diabetes due to long-term noise exposure. Electronic searches in MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Internet yielded 9 relevant studies (5 for residential and 4 for occupational exposure. They were checked against a predefined list of safeguards against bias producing individual quality scores, which were then fed to MetaXL to conduct a quality effects meta-analysis. People exposed at their homes to roughly L den > 60 dB had 22% higher risk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.37 for type 2 diabetes in comparison to those exposed to L den 85 dB. There was no heterogeneity in the two groups (I2 = 0.00. The results should be interpreted with caution due to methodological discrepancies across the studies; however, they are indicative of the close links that noise pollution might have not only to cardiovascular diseases but to endocrine dysfunction as well.

  2. Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Renal Transplant Recipients: Risk Factors and Long-Term Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawab, Khaled Abdel; Gheith, Osama; Al Otaibi, Torki; Nampoory, Naryanam; Mansour, Hany; Halim, Medhat A; Nair, Prasad; Said, Tarek; Abdelmonem, Mohamed; El-Sayed, Ayman; Awadain, Waleed

    2017-04-01

    Urinary tract infection is the most common type of bacterial infection in kidney transplant procedures, with adverse effects on graft and patient survival. We aimed to evaluate the risk factors of recurrent urinary tract infection in renal transplant recipients and its impact on patient and graft survival. In a cohort of 1019 patients who were transplanted between 2000 and 2010 at Hamed Al-Essa Organ Transplant Center in Kuwait, 86% developed at least 1 episode of urinary tract infection, with only 6.2% of patients having recurrent infections. We compared patients with recurrent urinary tract infections (group 1) with those who had no recurrence (group 2) regarding their risk factors. Patients in group 1 were significantly younger than those in group 2 (34.9 ± 23 vs 42.8 ± 16 y; P urinary tract infections (P infections were significantly more prevalent among group 1 (10.8% vs 3.8%; P = .008). Long-term graft outcome (functioning and failed) were 78.5% and 21.5% in group 1 versus 85.1% and 13.9% in group 2 (P = .18). Patient outcomes (living and deceased donors) were 98.4% and 1.6% in group 1 versus 95.7% and 4.3% in group 2 (P = .187). Adult females, thymoglobulin induction, pretransplant urologic problems, and hepatitis C infection were the risk factors of recurrent urinary tract infection among our renal transplant patients. However, recurrence did not adversely affect graft or patient survival.

  3. Measurement Error in Proportional Hazards Models for Survival Data with Long-term Survivors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-bing ZHAO; Xian ZHOU

    2012-01-01

    This work studies a proportional hazards model for survival data with "long-term survivors",in which covariates are subject to linear measurement error.It is well known that the na?ve estimators from both partial and full likelihood methods are inconsistent under this measurement error model.For measurement error models,methods of unbiased estimating function and corrected likelihood have been proposed in the literature.In this paper,we apply the corrected partial and full likelihood approaches to estimate the model and obtain statistical inference from survival data with long-term survivors.The asymptotic properties of the estimators are established.Simulation results illustrate that the proposed approaches provide useful tools for the models considered.

  4. Mode of delivery after obstetric anal sphincter injury and the risk of long-term anal incontinence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, Jens; Rosthøj, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Primiparous women have an increased risk of obstetric anal sphincter injury; because most of these patients deliver again, there are major concerns about mode of delivery: the risk of recurrent obstetric anal sphincter injury and the risk of long-term symptoms of anal incontinence...

  5. Mediators of a long-term movement abnormality in a Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Emily L; DuBoff, Brian; Feany, Mel B; Fridovich-Keil, Judith L

    2012-11-01

    Despite neonatal diagnosis and life-long dietary restriction of galactose, many patients with classic galactosemia grow to experience significant long-term complications. Among the more common are speech, cognitive, behavioral, ovarian and neurological/movement difficulties. Despite decades of research, the pathophysiology of these long-term complications remains obscure, hindering prognosis and attempts at improved intervention. As a first step to overcome this roadblock we have begun to explore long-term outcomes in our previously reported GALT-null Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia. Here we describe the first of these studies. Using a countercurrent device, a simple climbing assay, and a startle response test to characterize and quantify an apparent movement abnormality, we explored the impact of cryptic GALT expression on phenotype, tested the role of sublethal galactose exposure and galactose-1-phosphate (gal-1P) accumulation, tested the impact of age, and searched for potential anatomical defects in brain and muscle. We found that about 2.5% residual GALT activity was sufficient to reduce outcome severity. Surprisingly, sublethal galactose exposure and gal-1P accumulation during development showed no effect on the adult phenotype. Finally, despite the apparent neurological or neuromuscular nature of the complication we found no clear morphological differences between mutants and controls in brain or muscle, suggesting that the defect is subtle and/or is physiologic rather than structural. Combined, our results confirm that, like human patients, GALT-null Drosophila experience significant long-term complications that occur independently of galactose exposure, and serve as a proof of principle demonstrating utility of the GALT-null Drosophila model as a tool for exploring genetic and environmental modifiers of long-term outcome in GALT deficiency.

  6. Mediators of a long-term movement abnormality in a Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily L. Ryan

    2012-11-01

    Despite neonatal diagnosis and life-long dietary restriction of galactose, many patients with classic galactosemia grow to experience significant long-term complications. Among the more common are speech, cognitive, behavioral, ovarian and neurological/movement difficulties. Despite decades of research, the pathophysiology of these long-term complications remains obscure, hindering prognosis and attempts at improved intervention. As a first step to overcome this roadblock we have begun to explore long-term outcomes in our previously reported GALT-null Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia. Here we describe the first of these studies. Using a countercurrent device, a simple climbing assay, and a startle response test to characterize and quantify an apparent movement abnormality, we explored the impact of cryptic GALT expression on phenotype, tested the role of sublethal galactose exposure and galactose-1-phosphate (gal-1P accumulation, tested the impact of age, and searched for potential anatomical defects in brain and muscle. We found that about 2.5% residual GALT activity was sufficient to reduce outcome severity. Surprisingly, sublethal galactose exposure and gal-1P accumulation during development showed no effect on the adult phenotype. Finally, despite the apparent neurological or neuromuscular nature of the complication we found no clear morphological differences between mutants and controls in brain or muscle, suggesting that the defect is subtle and/or is physiologic rather than structural. Combined, our results confirm that, like human patients, GALT-null Drosophila experience significant long-term complications that occur independently of galactose exposure, and serve as a proof of principle demonstrating utility of the GALT-null Drosophila model as a tool for exploring genetic and environmental modifiers of long-term outcome in GALT deficiency.

  7. National coal utilization assessment: modeling long-term coal production with the Argonne coal market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dux, C.D.; Kroh, G.C.; VanKuiken, J.C.

    1977-08-01

    The Argonne Coal Market Model was developed as part of the National Coal Utilization Assessment, a comprehensive study of coal-related environmental, health, and safety impacts. The model was used to generate long-term coal market scenarios that became the basis for comparing the impacts of coal-development options. The model has a relatively high degree of regional detail concerning both supply and demand. Coal demands are forecast by a combination of trend and econometric analysis and then input exogenously into the model. Coal supply in each region is characterized by a linearly increasing function relating increments of new mine capacity to the marginal cost of extraction. Rail-transportation costs are econometrically estimated for each supply-demand link. A quadratic programming algorithm is used to calculate flow patterns that minimize consumer costs for the system.

  8. A prospective study of long-term intake of dietary fiber and risk of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Khalili, Hamed; Konijeti, Gauree G; Higuchi, Leslie M; de Silva, Punyanganie; Korzenik, Joshua R; Fuchs, Charles S; Willett, Walter C; Richter, James M; Chan, Andrew T

    2013-11-01

    Increased intake of dietary fiber has been proposed to reduce the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC]). However, few prospective studies have examined associations between long-term intake of dietary fiber and risk of incident CD or UC. We collected and analyzed data from 170,776 women, followed up over 26 years, who participated in the Nurses' Health Study, followed up for 3,317,425 person-years. Dietary information was prospectively ascertained via administration of a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire every 4 years. Self-reported CD and UC were confirmed through review of medical records. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for potential confounders, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). We confirmed 269 incident cases of CD (incidence, 8/100,000 person-years) and 338 cases of UC (incidence, 10/100,000 person-years). Compared with the lowest quintile of energy-adjusted cumulative average intake of dietary fiber, intake of the highest quintile (median of 24.3 g/day) was associated with a 40% reduction in risk of CD (multivariate HR for CD, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.90). This apparent reduction appeared to be greatest for fiber derived from fruits; fiber from cereals, whole grains, or legumes did not modify risk. In contrast, neither total intake of dietary fiber (multivariate HR, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.17) nor intake of fiber from specific sources appeared to be significantly associated with risk of UC. Based on data from the Nurses' Health Study, long-term intake of dietary fiber, particularly from fruit, is associated with lower risk of CD but not UC. Further studies are needed to determine the mechanisms that mediate this association. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Long-Term Behaviors of Stochastic Interest Rate Models with Jumps and Memory

    CERN Document Server

    Bao, Jianhai

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we show the convergence of the long-term return $t^{-\\mu}\\int_0^tX(s)\\d s$ for some $\\mu\\geq1$, where $X$ is the short-term interest rate which follows an extension of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type model with jumps and memory, and, as an application, we also investigate the corresponding behavior of two-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model with jumps and memory

  10. SY 13-2 LONG-TERM CARDIOVASCULAR RISK REDUCTION IN PEDIATRIC HYPERTENSION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Stephen Robert

    2016-09-01

    Hypertension in children and adolescents is associated with both short and long-term abnormalities in the cardiovascular system. Ultimately, these changes can lead to myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure and chronic renal disease, all of which are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality.In the short term, the best evidence that hypertension is adversely impacting the heart and vasculature is the development of left ventricular hypertrophy, increased vascular stiffness and endothelial dysfunction. Studies have shown that adolescents with hypertension may already have a degree of left ventricular hypertrophy that is associated with diastolic dysfunction and, in adults with hypertension, is associated with a four-fold increase in risk for cardiovascular disease mortality. Vascular stiffness and endothelial dysfunction are associated with the development of atherosclerotic changes demonstrated by increased carotid artery intima media thickness and, ultimately, adverse outcomes.Treatment of hypertension in adults is clearly associated with decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. It appears that early treatment may be especially important for preserving cardiovascular health. This emphasizes the importance of identification and treatment of hypertension in children and adolescents.

  11. Effect of Genetic Polymorphisms and Long-Term Tobacco Exposure on the Risk of Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verde, Zoraida; Santiago, Catalina; Chicharro, Luis Miguel; Reinoso-Barbero, Luis; Tejerina, Alejandro; Bandrés, Fernando; Gómez-Gallego, Félix

    2016-10-14

    Tobacco smoke contains many potentially harmful compounds that may act differently and at different stages in breast cancer development. The focus of this work was to assess the possible role of cigarette smoking (status, dose, duration or age at initiation) and polymorphisms in genes coding for enzymes involved in tobacco carcinogen metabolism (CYP1A1, CYP2A6) or in DNA repair (XRCC1, APEX1, XRCC3 and XPD) in breast cancer development. We designed a case control study with 297 patients, 217 histologically verified breast cancers (141 smokers and 76 non-smokers) and 80 healthy smokers in a cohort of Spanish women. We found an association between smoking status and early age at diagnosis of breast cancer. Among smokers, invasive carcinoma subtype incidence increased with intensity and duration of smoking (all Ptrend < 0.05). When smokers were stratified by smoking duration, we only observed differences in long-term smokers, and the CYP1A1 Ile462Ile genotype was associated with increased risk of breast cancer (OR = 7.12 (1.98-25.59)). Our results support the main effect of CYP1A1 in estrogenic metabolism rather than in tobacco carcinogen activation in breast cancer patients and also confirmed the hypothesis that CYP1A1 Ile462Val, in association with long periods of active smoking, could be a breast cancer risk factor.

  12. Effect of Genetic Polymorphisms and Long-Term Tobacco Exposure on the Risk of Breast Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoraida Verde

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Tobacco smoke contains many potentially harmful compounds that may act differently and at different stages in breast cancer development. The focus of this work was to assess the possible role of cigarette smoking (status, dose, duration or age at initiation and polymorphisms in genes coding for enzymes involved in tobacco carcinogen metabolism (CYP1A1, CYP2A6 or in DNA repair (XRCC1, APEX1, XRCC3 and XPD in breast cancer development. Methods: We designed a case control study with 297 patients, 217 histologically verified breast cancers (141 smokers and 76 non-smokers and 80 healthy smokers in a cohort of Spanish women. Results: We found an association between smoking status and early age at diagnosis of breast cancer. Among smokers, invasive carcinoma subtype incidence increased with intensity and duration of smoking (all Ptrend < 0.05. When smokers were stratified by smoking duration, we only observed differences in long-term smokers, and the CYP1A1 Ile462Ile genotype was associated with increased risk of breast cancer (OR = 7.12 (1.98–25.59. Conclusions: Our results support the main effect of CYP1A1 in estrogenic metabolism rather than in tobacco carcinogen activation in breast cancer patients and also confirmed the hypothesis that CYP1A1 Ile462Val, in association with long periods of active smoking, could be a breast cancer risk factor.

  13. 0-D Particle Balance Modeling for the Long-term Density Response and Control in KSTAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhn, June-Woo; Hong, S. H.; Hahn, S. H.; Hwang, Y. S.; Kstar Team; Vest Team

    2015-11-01

    Long-term density response of KSTAR plasmas has been reproduced with a 0-D particle balance equations. The long-term response of density means at least a few seconds of the density decay time during the absent of fuels as well as the full discharge length of the KSTAR within the record of 47s. The model includes reactions between deuterium ions, atoms, molecules and wall contents based on the Maddion's model which is one of the most comprehensive 0-D particle balance and validated with the MAST experiments. In order to reflect the long term response, the model is modified including outgassing-like particle emission from the first walls as the form of wall contents over residence time i.e. Nw /τw . The model result in excellent agreement with the experimental density response basically in 0.3MA Ohmic limiter plasmas yielding the global particle confinement time τi about 30ms. The model also reproduces the density behavior in the higher Ip diverted plasmas, including ELMy H-modes with the explicit ELM density drop. The model can be used for the improvement of the density feedback control system by comparing the voltage-controlled gas puffing with flux-controlled one for example.

  14. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    relating frost-cracking intensity to the mean annual air temperature (MAAT). The model integrates temperature variations in the subsurface following an annually oscillating surface temperature. Hales and Roering (2007) assumed that frost-cracking intensity is a simple function of the temperature gradient......Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...

  15. A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlueter, Stephan

    2010-09-15

    In this paper we introduce a new stochastic long-term/short-term model for short-term electricity prices, and apply it to four major European indices, namely to the German, Dutch, UK and Nordic one. We give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic (mostly annual) patterns, and show how to use the wavelet transform, a tool of multiresolution analysis, for filtering purpose. The wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long-term trend from the short-term oscillation in the seasonal-adjusted log-prices. In all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility, which we incorporate by using a bivariate GARCH model with constant correlation. Eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data, and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best. For the error distribution, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution shows the best fit. (author)

  16. A Long-Term Memory Competitive Process Model of a Common Procedural Error. Part II: Working Memory Load and Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A Long-Term Memory Competitive Process Model of a Common Procedural Error, Part II: Working Memory Load and Capacity Franklin P. Tamborello, II...00-00-2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Long-Term Memory Competitive Process Model of a Common Procedural Error, Part II: Working Memory Load and...07370024.2011.601692 Tamborello, F. P., & Trafton, J. G. (2013). A long-term competitive process model of a common procedural error. In Proceedings of the 35th

  17. A preliminary analysis of climate change effect on long-term risk-based design of flood defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M.; Vrijling, J. K.

    2012-04-01

    The lifetime of a flood defense usually lasts for decades or centuries. The future flood probabilistic distribution is not stationary due to climate change. Therefore in the long-term design of flood defense systems, the effect of climate change should be taken into account. The design height of Bengbu dike segment (about 10 km) along Huai River in China is studied as an example to explore the potential effects of climate change on long-term risk-based design. The economic-optimal design height of the dike is determined based on cost-benefit analysis. In this analysis the incremental investments in more safety are balanced with the reduction of the risk. Since climate change will result in the change of flood probability and hence the change of flooding risk, the optimal height might be shifted. To describe the possible future climate, the ensemble prediction of Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used in the study. River runoff series, which is required in deriving annual probability of peak runoff, is obtained by forcing a hydrological model with each GCM climate prediction. Then the probability of high water level in the river is derived based on the relationship between water level and peak runoff. The probability of flooding is assumed to equal to the exceedance probability of the high water level in the river. The possible future flood risk is calculated based on the flooding probability estimates, and is corresponding to each member of the GCMs ensemble. The result will provide information about the significance of potential effects of climate change on the long-term design of flood defense. With comparison to the baseline period, the shift of risk curve in future will be shown on the cost-benefit diagram as well as the change of economic optimal design dike height. As it is a preliminary analysis in this study a sensitivity analysis will be carried out. The sensitivity of use of GCMs ensemble, the damage value and the investment cost will be investigated.

  18. Impact of Cytomegalovirus on Long-term Mortality and Cancer Risk After Organ Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Rajeev; Collett, Dave; Watson, Christopher J E; Johnson, Philip J; Moss, Paul; Neuberger, James

    2015-09-01

    There is conflicting evidence of the effect of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection on survival and the risk of cancer after transplantation. All recipients of kidney, liver, heart, and lung transplants in the United Kingdom between 1987 and 2007 with known CMV immunoglobulin G status were identified from the U.K. Transplant Registry. Based on the donor-recipient CMV status, recipients were grouped into: donor (D) negative recipient (R) negative (D- R-), D-R+, D + R+ and D + R-. Cancer data were obtained from the Office for National Statistics. The impact of CMV infection on survival and cancer incidence was assessed. The 10-year posttransplant survival in D-R- recipients (73.6% [95%CI, 72.3, 74.9]) was significantly higher (P < 0.0001) than in other recipients (66.1% [65.3, 66.9]). Compared with the D- R- group, the risk-adjusted hazard of death within 10 years of transplantation for D+ R- group was 14% higher for kidney recipients (P = 0.0495), 13% higher for liver recipients (P = 0.16), 34% higher for heart recipients (P = 0.01), and 35% higher for lung recipients (P = 0.006). The proportion of recipients with a cardiovascular cause of death was higher (P = 0.03) among the recipients exposed to CMV (18%) as compared to the D- R- recipients (16%). The CMV status was not associated with an increased risk of cancer. The results from this large study demonstrate that CMV is associated with a significantly increased long-term mortality in kidney and cardiothoracic transplant recipients and an increased risk of cardiovascular death but not of posttransplant cancer.

  19. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  20. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  1. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  2. Age and other risk factors of pneumonia among residents of Polish long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wójkowska-Mach, Jadwiga; Gryglewska, Barbara; Romaniszyn, Dorota; Natkaniec, Joanna; Pobiega, Monika; Adamski, Paweł; Grodzicki, Tomasz; Kubicz, Dariusz; Heczko, Piotr B

    2013-01-01

    Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population. Nursing home-acquired pneumonia (NHAP) is probably the largest health problem in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). It is the second most common infection in LTCFs and frequently requires hospitalization. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence rate of NHAP among LTCF residents, its microbial etiology, and the frequency of multidrug-resistant microorganisms. Risk factors for NHAP were analyzed. This was a prospective study conducted on a group of 217 elderly subjects aged ≥65 years, recruited from the inhabitants of LTCFs, with disabled elderly individuals living in the community serving as controls. Continuous surveillance was carried out from December 1, 2009 to November 30, 2010. The incidence rate of NHAP in the observed population of Polish residents was 0.6/1000 resident-days. Vulnerability to NHAP was due to the poor general condition of residents, expressed by low Barthel index values (relative risk (RR) 1.6), the activities of daily living (ADL) score (RR 1.7), the Katz scale (RR 1.2), and limited physical activity (RR 1.6). Also significant were malnutrition (RR 2.3), the use of a bladder catheter (RR 1.3), dysphagia (RR 1.7), tracheotomy tube (RR 3.1), and gastric feeding tube (RR 3.5). Enterobacteriaceae were the predominant etiological agents of NHAP (56.3%). The significance of risk factors for NHAP among residents in LTCFs was confirmed. Unfortunately, we also found that a lack of proper supervision with regard to the microbiology of infections is characteristic of Polish health care and LTCFs. There is an opportunity to improve the medical care of patients with severe disabilities, limit the rise in antimicrobial resistance and the need for hospitalization, and improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Radiation Dose and Subsequent Risk for Stomach Cancer in Long-term Survivors of Cervical Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleinerman, Ruth A., E-mail: kleinerr@mail.nih.gov [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, US Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, Maryland (United States); Smith, Susan A. [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Holowaty, Eric [Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Hall, Per [Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Pukkala, Eero [Finnish Cancer Registry, Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, Helsinki (Finland); Vaalavirta, Leila [Department of Oncology, Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki (Finland); Stovall, Marilyn; Weathers, Rita [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Gilbert, Ethel [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, US Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, Maryland (United States); Aleman, Berthe M.P. [Department of Radiotherapy, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kaijser, Magnus [Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Michael [Department of Oncology, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen (Denmark); Storm, Hans [Cancer Prevention and Documentation, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen (Denmark); Joensuu, Heikki [Department of Oncology, Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki (Finland); Lynch, Charles F. [Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa (United States); and others

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To assess the dose–response relationship for stomach cancer after radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We conducted a nested, matched case–control study of 201 cases and 378 controls among 53,547 5-year survivors of cervical cancer diagnosed from 1943 to 1995, from 5 international, population-based cancer registries. We estimated individual radiation doses to the site of the stomach cancer for all cases and to corresponding sites for the matched controls (overall mean stomach tumor dose, 2.56 Gy, range 0.03-46.1 and after parallel opposed pelvic fields, 1.63 Gy, range 0.12-6.3). Results: More than 90% of women received radiation therapy, mostly with external beam therapy in combination with brachytherapy. Stomach cancer risk was nonsignificantly increased (odds ratio 1.27-2.28) for women receiving between 0.5 and 4.9 Gy to the stomach cancer site and significantly increased at doses ≥5 Gy (odds ratio 4.20, 95% confidence interval 1.41-13.4, P{sub trend}=.047) compared with nonirradiated women. A highly significant radiation dose–response relationship was evident when analyses were restricted to the 131 cases (251 controls) whose stomach cancer was located in the middle and lower portions of the stomach (P{sub trend}=.003), whereas there was no indication of increasing risk with increasing dose for 30 cases (57 controls) whose cancer was located in the upper stomach (P{sub trend}=.23). Conclusions: Our findings show for the first time a significant linear dose–response relationship for risk of stomach cancer in long-term survivors of cervical cancer.

  4. Is Long-term Use of Benzodiazepine a Risk for Cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Usman; Nguyen, Phung-Anh; Syed-Abdul, Shabbir; Yang, Hsuan-Chia; Huang, Chih-Wei; Jian, Wen-Shan; Hsu, Min-Huei; Yen, Yun; Li, Yu-Chuan (Jack)

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The carcinogenicity of benzodiazepines (BZDs) is still unclear. We aimed to assess whether long-term benzodiazepines use is risk for cancer. We conducted a longitudinal population-based case-control study by using 12 years from Taiwan National Health Insurance database and investigated the association between BZDs use and cancer risk of people aged over 20 years. During the study period, 42,500 cases diagnosed with cancer were identified and analyzed for BZDs use. For each case, six eligible controls matched for age, sex, and the index date (ie, free of any cancer in the date of case diagnosis) by using propensity score. For appropriate risk estimation, we observed the outcomes according to their length of exposure (LOE) and defined daily dose (DDD). To mimic bias, we adjusted with potential confounding factors such as medications and comorbid diseases which could influence for cancer risk during the study period. The data was analyzed by using Cox proportional hazard regression and conditional logistic regression. The finding unveils benzodiazepines use into safe and unsafe groups for their carcinogenicity. The use of diazepam (HR, 0.96; 95%CI, 0.92–1.00), chlorodizepoxide (HR, 0.98; 95%CI, 0.92–1.04), medazepam (HR, 1.01; 95%CI, 0.84–1.21), nitrazepam (HR, 1.06; 95%CI, 0.98–1.14), oxazepam (HR, 1.05; 95%CI, 0.94–1.17) found safer among BZDs. However, clonazepam (HR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.09–1.22) were associated with a higher risk for cancers. Moreover, specific cancer risk among BZDs use was observed significantly increased 98% for brain, 25% for colorectal, and 10% for lung, as compared with non-BZDs use. Diazepam, chlordiazepoxide, medazepam, nitrazepam, and oxazepam are safe among BZDs use for cancer risk. Our findings could help physicians to select safer BZDs and provide an evidence on the carcinogenic effect of benzodiazepines use by considering the LOE and DDD for further research. PMID:25674736

  5. Is long-term use of benzodiazepine a risk for cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Usman; Nguyen, Phung-Anh; Syed-Abdul, Shabbir; Yang, Hsuan-Chia; Huang, Chih-Wei; Jian, Wen-Shan; Hsu, Min-Huei; Yen, Yun; Li, Yu-Chuan Jack

    2015-02-01

    The carcinogenicity of benzodiazepines (BZDs) is still unclear. We aimed to assess whether long-term benzodiazepines use is risk for cancer.We conducted a longitudinal population-based case-control study by using 12 years from Taiwan National Health Insurance database and investigated the association between BZDs use and cancer risk of people aged over 20 years. During the study period, 42,500 cases diagnosed with cancer were identified and analyzed for BZDs use. For each case, six eligible controls matched for age, sex, and the index date (ie, free of any cancer in the date of case diagnosis) by using propensity score. For appropriate risk estimation, we observed the outcomes according to their length of exposure (LOE) and defined daily dose (DDD). To mimic bias, we adjusted with potential confounding factors such as medications and comorbid diseases which could influence for cancer risk during the study period. The data was analyzed by using Cox proportional hazard regression and conditional logistic regression.The finding unveils benzodiazepines use into safe and unsafe groups for their carcinogenicity. The use of diazepam (HR, 0.96; 95%CI, 0.92-1.00), chlorodizepoxide (HR, 0.98; 95%CI, 0.92-1.04), medazepam (HR, 1.01; 95%CI, 0.84-1.21), nitrazepam (HR, 1.06; 95%CI, 0.98-1.14), oxazepam (HR, 1.05; 95%CI, 0.94-1.17) found safer among BZDs. However, clonazepam (HR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.09-1.22) were associated with a higher risk for cancers. Moreover, specific cancer risk among BZDs use was observed significantly increased 98% for brain, 25% for colorectal, and 10% for lung, as compared with non-BZDs use.Diazepam, chlordiazepoxide, medazepam, nitrazepam, and oxazepam are safe among BZDs use for cancer risk. Our findings could help physicians to select safer BZDs and provide an evidence on the carcinogenic effect of benzodiazepines use by considering the LOE and DDD for further research.

  6. Commercial kidney transplantation is an important risk factor in long-term kidney allograft survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, G V Ramesh; Ananth, Sailesh; Palepu, Sneha; Huang, Michael; Nash, Michelle M; Zaltzman, Jeffrey S

    2016-05-01

    Transplant tourism, a form of transplant commercialization, has resulted in serious short-term adverse outcomes that explain reduced short-term kidney allograft survival. However, the nature of longer-term outcomes in commercial kidney transplant recipients is less clear. To study this further, we identified 69 Canadian commercial transplant recipients of 72 kidney allografts transplanted during 1998 to 2013 who reported to our transplant center for follow-up care. Their outcomes to 8 years post-transplant were compared with 702 domestic living donor and 827 deceased donor transplant recipients during this period using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Among many complications, notable specific events included hepatitis B or C seroconversion (7 patients), active hepatitis and/or fulminant hepatic failure (4 patients), pulmonary tuberculosis (2 patients), and a type A dissecting aortic aneurysm. Commercial transplantation was independently associated with significantly reduced death-censored kidney allograft survival (hazard ratio 3.69, 95% confidence interval 1.88-7.25) along with significantly delayed graft function and eGFR 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2) or less at 3 months post-transplant. Thus, commercial transplantation represents an important risk factor for long-term kidney allograft loss. Concerted arguments and efforts using adverse recipient outcomes among the main premises are still required in order to eradicate transplant commercialization.

  7. Long-term mortality risk in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoogwegt, Madelein T; Theuns, Dominic A M J; Pedersen, Susanne S.

    2014-01-01

    risk in first-time ICD patients, adjusting also for measures of emotional distress. METHODS: Resting heart rate and QRS duration were assessed prior to ICD implantation in 448 patients. Primary study endpoint was all-cause mortality (up to 6.0 year follow-up, median follow-up of 5.6 years (IQR: 1......BACKGROUND: A paucity of studies has investigated the role of autonomic cardiac regulation as well as cardiac conduction in relation to prognosis in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) patients. Therefore, we examined the association of heart rate and QRS duration with long-term mortality.......9)). The impact of heart rate and QRS duration on time to all-cause mortality was separately assessed with Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, adjusting for clinical factors and symptoms of depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Mean (SD) heart rate was 68.0 ± 13.3 bpm and mean QRS duration was 130.9 ± 36.9 ms...

  8. Long-term exercise adherence after public health training in at-risk adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riktrup Hansen Saida, Trine Gro; Juul Sørensen, Tina; Langberg, Henning

    2017-01-01

    and self-rated health. Predictors of long-term exercise adherence were assessed by logistic regression, estimating crude odds-ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) and adjusting for age, gender, education, smoking, moderate and vigorous exercise. Results: In total, 214 adults (mean age 58......Objectives: Sustainment of healthy exercise behavior is essential in preventing cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Few studies have explored long-term exercise adherence after an exercise referral scheme. The objective of this study was to examine 12-month exercise adherence after an exercise...... predictors of long-term exercise adherence were participation in sport activities at baseline (adjusted odds-ratio [aOR] 4.22, 95% CI 1.72-10.40), self-rated health (aOR 2.60, 1.00-6.75) and quality of life (aOR 2.39, 1.03-5.54). Long-term non-adherence was associated with low education (

  9. Congenital Heart Disease With and Without Cyanotic Potential and the Long-term Risk of Diabetes Mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Nicolas L; Marino, Bradley S; Woo, Jessica G

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Long-term survival for persons born with congenital heart disease (CHD) is improved, but limited knowledge exists of this growing population's acquired cardiovascular risk profile. This study's purpose was to assess CHD survivors' risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with attention...

  10. Long-term survivors of ovarian malignancies after cisplatin-based chemotherapy : cardiovascular risk factors and signs of vascular damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vos, FYFL; Nuver, J; Willemse, PHB; van der Zee, AGJ; Messerschraidt, J; Burgerhof, JGM; de Vries, EGE; Gietema, JA

    dMale germ cell tumour patients treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy frequently develop cardiovascular risk factors and disease, but sparse information is available about long-term complications of this type of chemotherapy in women. We investigated the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors

  11. Long-term effects of methadone maintenance treatment with different psychosocial intervention models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lirong Wang

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the long-term effects of different psychosocial intervention models in methadone maintenance treatment (MMT in Xi'an China. Patients from five MMT clinics were divided into three groups receiving MMT only, MMT with counseling psychology (CP or MMT with contingency management (CM. A five-year follow-up was carried out with daily records of medication, monthly random urine morphine tests, and tests for anti-HIV and anti-HCV every six months. Drug use behavior was recorded six months after initial recruitment using a survey. Adjusted RRs and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs were estimated using an unconditional logistic regression model or a Cox proportional hazard model. A total of 2662 patients were recruited with 797 in MMT, 985 in MMT with CP, and 880 in MMT with CM. Following six months of treatment, the injection rates of MMT with CP and MMT with CM groups were significantly lower than that of MMT (5.1% and 6.9% vs. 16.3%, x²  =  47.093 and 29.908, respectively; P<0.05. HIV incidences for MMT, MMT with CP and MMT with CM at the five year follow-up were 20.09, 0.00 and 10.02 per ten thousand person-years, respectively. HCV incidences were 18.35, 4.42 and 6.61 per hundred person-years, respectively, demonstrating that CP and CM were protective factors for HCV incidence (RR  =  0.209 and 0.414, with range of 0.146-0.300 and 0.298-0.574, respectively. MMT supplemented with CP or CM can reduce heroin use and related risk behaviors, thereby reducing the incidence of HIV and HCV.

  12. The long-term association between physical activity and risk of dementia in the community: the Hisayama Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishimoto, Hiro; Ohara, Tomoyuki; Hata, Jun; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Yoshida, Daigo; Mukai, Naoko; Nagata, Masaharu; Ikeda, Fumie; Fukuhara, Masayo; Kumagai, Shuzo; Kanba, Shigenobu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kiyohara, Yutaka

    2016-03-01

    We investigated the long-term influence of physical activity on the risk of dementia in an elderly Japanese population. A total of 803 community-dwelling elderly Japanese individuals without dementia aged ≥65 years were followed prospectively for 17 years. Physically active status was defined as engaging in exercise at least one or more times per week during leisure time, and participants were divided into an active group and an inactive group by the presence or absence of such physical activity. The risk estimates of physical activity on the development of all-cause dementia and its subtypes were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up, 291 participants developed all-cause dementia. Of these, 165 had Alzheimer's disease (AD), 93 had vascular dementia (VaD), and 47 had other dementia. Compared with the inactive group, the active group showed significantly lower crude incidence of AD (21.8 vs. 14.2 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.01), but no significant differences were observed for all-cause dementia (35.6 vs. 30.5, p = 0.17), VaD (11.3 vs. 9.8, p = 049), and other dementia (4.6 vs. 7.1, p = 0.15). After adjusting for potential confounders, the relationship between physical activity and risk of AD remained significant (adjusted hazard ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.41-0.84, p = 0.003). Our findings suggest that physical activity reduces the long-term risk of dementia, especially AD, in the general Japanese population.

  13. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  14. On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2009-01-01

    martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

  15. Nutrition-related risk indexes and long-term mortality in noncritically ill inpatients who receive total parenteral nutrition (prospective multicenter study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia, María José; Ocón, Julia; Cabrejas-Gómez, Carmen; Ballesteros-Pomar, María D; Vidal-Casariego, Alfonso; Arraiza-Irigoyen, Carmen; Olivares, Josefina; Conde-García, Ma Carmen; García-Manzanares, Álvaro; Botella-Romero, Francisco; Quílez-Toboso, Rosa P; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Rubio, Miguel A; Chicharro, Luisa; Burgos, Rosa; Pujante, Pedro; Ferrer, Mercedes; Zugasti, Ana; Petrina, Estrella; Manjón, Laura; Diéguez, Marta; Carrera, Ma José; Vila-Bundo, Anna; Urgelés, Juan Ramón; Aragón-Valera, Carmen; Sánchez-Vilar, Olga; Bretón, Irene; García-Peris, Pilar; Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Márquez, Efren; del Olmo, Dolores; Pereira, José Luis; Tous, María C; Olveira, Gabriel

    2015-10-01

    Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is associated with an increased risk of death, in both the short and the long term. The purpose of this study was to determine which nutrition-related risk index predicts long-term mortality better (three years) in patients who receive total parenteral nutrition (TPN). This prospective, multicenter study involved noncritically ill patients who were prescribed TPN during hospitalization. Data were collected on Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), body mass index, albumin and prealbumin, as well as long-term mortality. Over the 1- and 3-year follow-up periods, 174 and 244 study subjects (28.8% and 40.3%) respectively, died. Based on the Cox proportional hazards survival model, the nutrition-related risk indexes most strongly associated with mortality were SGA and albumin (<2.5 g/dL) (after adjustment for age, gender, C-reactive protein levels, prior comorbidity, mean capillary blood glucose during TPN infusion, diabetes status prior to TPN, diagnosis, and infectious complications during hospitalization). The SGA and very low albumin levels are simple tools that predict the risk of long-term mortality better than other tools in noncritically ill patients who receive TPN during hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  16. Self-reported Occupational Skin Exposure and Risk of Physician-certified Long-term Sick Leave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alfonso, Jose Hernan; Tynes, Tore; Thyssen, Jacob P;

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway. Occupat......Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway...

  17. Hydrological modelling of alpine headwaters using centurial glacier evolution, snow and long-term discharge dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Irene; Vis, Marc; Freudiger, Daphné; Seibert, Jan; Weiler, Markus; Stahl, Kerstin

    2016-04-01

    The response of alpine streamflows to long-term climate variations is highly relevant for the supply of water to adjacent lowlands. A key challenge in modelling high-elevation catchments is the complexity and spatial variability of processes, whereas data availability is rather often poor, restricting options for model calibration and validation. Glaciers represent a long-term storage component that changes over long time-scales and thus introduces additional calibration parameters into the modelling challenge. The presented study aimed to model daily streamflow as well as the contributions of ice and snow melt for all 49 of the River Rhine's glaciated headwater catchments over the long time-period from 1901 to 2006. To constrain the models we used multiple data sources and developed an adapted modelling framework based on an extended version of the HBV model that also includes a time-variable glacier change model and a conceptual representation of snow redistribution. In this study constraints were applied in several ways. A water balance approach was applied to correct precipitation input in order to avoid calibration of precipitation; glacier area change from maps and satellite products and information on snow depth and snow covered area were used for the calibration of each catchment model; and finally, specific seasonal and dynamic aspects of discharge were used for calibration. Additional data like glacier mass balances were used to evaluate the model in selected catchments. The modelling experiment showed that the long-term development of the coupled glacier and streamflow change was particularly important to constrain the model through an objective function incorporating three benchmarks of glacier retreat during the 20th Century. Modelling using only streamflow as calibration criteria had resulted in disproportionate under and over estimation of glacier retreat, even though the simulated and observed streamflow agreed well. Also, even short discharge time

  18. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff.

  19. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  20. Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

    2015-08-01

    Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

  1. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    relating frost-cracking intensity to the mean annual air temperature (MAAT). The model integrates temperature variations in the subsurface following an annually oscillating surface temperature. Hales and Roering (2007) assumed that frost-cracking intensity is a simple function of the temperature gradient...... allows us to couple the frost-cracking model to a long- term landscape evolution model where surface elevation, sediment thickness, and air temperature evolve through time. This enables us to explore the spatial distribution of frost cracking in realistic landscapes, and to study the slow feedbacks...

  2. Comparison of Radio Propagation Models for Long Term Evolution (LTE) Network

    CERN Document Server

    Shabbir, Noman; Kashif, Hasnain; Ullah, Rizwan

    2011-01-01

    This paper concerns about the radio propagation models used for the upcoming 4th Generation (4G) of cellular networks known as Long Term Evolution (LTE). The radio wave propagation model or path loss model plays a very significant role in planning of any wireless communication systems. In this paper, a comparison is made between different proposed radio propagation models that would be used for LTE, like Stanford University Interim (SUI) model, Okumura model, Hata COST 231 model, COST Walfisch-Ikegami & Ericsson 9999 model. The comparison is made using different terrains e.g. urban, suburban and rural area.SUI model shows the lowest path lost in all the terrains while COST 231 Hata model illustrates highest path loss in urban area and COST Walfisch-Ikegami model has highest path loss for suburban and rural environments.

  3. Increased body aluminum. An independent risk factor in patients undergoing long-term hemodialysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chazan, J.A.; Blonsky, S.L.; Abuelo, J.G.; Pezzullo, J.C.

    1988-08-01

    The clinical course and aluminum status of 38 patients who had been receiving dialysis for at least eight years and were still undergoing dialysis in 1985 were evaluated. Twenty-nine had evidence of increased aluminum burden, although only three had evidence of overt aluminum toxicity, and nine did not have evidence of increased aluminum burden. The patients in both the high- and low-aluminum group were similar with regard to age, the cause of their renal failure, presence of hypertension or coronary artery disease, previous parathyroidectomy, and a number of biochemical parameters, along with the amount of prescribed aluminum. All patients were followed up for the next two years or until they died. The amount of ingested aluminum was reduced, and in selected patients, treatment with intermittent infusions of deferoxamine mesylate was instituted. There were no deaths in the low-aluminum group, but ten of 29 died in the high-aluminum group: seven of vascular disease and three of infection. In addition, morbidity as defined by hospitalization for coronary or cerebral vascular disease or infection occurred in only two of the nine patients in the low-aluminum group and in 19 of the 29 patients in the high-aluminum group. These observations imply that the occurrence of increased body aluminum, as suggested by aluminum blood levels or by results of bone biopsies in some patients, has an adverse effect on morbidity and mortality and should be considered as a possible independent risk factor in patients who are receiving long-term hemodialysis.

  4. Risk factors of long-term sickness absence in Norway and Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vegard Johansen

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Aims: This paper examines the level of long-term sickness absence (LTSA in Norway and Sweden. It also investigates whether risk factors of LTSA are the same in Norway and Sweden. Methods: More than 2500 Norwegian and Swedish workers between 20 and 60 years of age answered a postal questionnaire. The Norwegian and Swedish samples are weighted and representative with regard to regional background variables and demographic background variables, but the response rate was low. LTSA is defined as 15 days or more sickness absence in the previous year. Binary logistic regression is used to detect which factors influence LTSA. The analyses of LTSA include demographic factors, socio-economic position, and occupational characteristics. Results: Nineteen per cent of respondents in Norway and 11 per cent of respondents in Sweden experienced LTSA in the previous year. Many respondents from Sweden report mental problems and many Norwegian respondents report pain in back, neck, knuckles, and muscles. Income level is the most important predictor of LTSA in both countries. The direct impacts of gender, age, and physical work conditions are stronger in Norway than Sweden.Discussion: In accordance with official statistics and previous studies, the proportion of Norwegian respondents with LTSA is much higher than the proportion of Swedish respondents. The different levels of LTSA could be linked to differences in social policy. In line with previous studies, respondents with low income are overrepresented with LTSA, and gender, age, and physical work also matter. In contrast to previous studies, there is not any evidence of higher levels of LTSA among non-western immigrants, people with less education, and non-managers. These results reflect the control for ‘income level’, but they could also be related to limits with the survey (non-response, response bias, etc..

  5. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Murru

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

  6. Regular use of medication for musculoskeletal pain and risk of long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, E; Jakobsen, M. D.; Thorsen, S. V.;

    2016-01-01

    , body mass index, smoking, leisure physical activity, job group, physical activity at work, psychosocial work environment, pain intensity, mental health and chronic disease. RESULTS: In 2010, the proportion of regular pain medication users due to musculoskeletal disorders was 20.8%: 13.4% as over...... be an early indicator that musculoskeletal pain can lead to serious consequences such as long-term sickness absence. SIGNIFICANCE: Use of medication due to musculoskeletal pain is prospectively associated with long-term sickness absence even when adjusted for pain intensity. Use of pain medication can...

  7. Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling; Etude de la stabilite thermique du verre nucleaire. Modelisation de son evolution a long terme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orlhac, X

    2000-07-01

    The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO{sub 4}, CeCO{sub 2}, ZnCr{sub 2}O{sub 4}). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO{sub 2}SiO{sub 2}) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

  8. Do gastrointestinal complaints increase the risk for subsequent medically certified long-term sickness absence? The HUSK study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øverland Simon

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gastrointestinal complaints are very common in the general population and very often co-occur with common mental disorders. We aimed to study the prospective impact of gastrointestinal complaints on long term sickness absence, and address the contribution from co-occurring common mental disorders and other somatic symptoms. Method Health data on 13 880 40-45 year olds from the Hordaland Health Study (1997-99 were linked to national registries on sickness absence. As part of a wider health screening, gastrointestinal complaints were ascertained. Participant's anxiety and depression, and the presence of other somatic symptoms were evaluated. In Cox regression models, we predicted sickness absences over an average 5.4 years follow-up, with adjustment for confounders, anxiety and depression and other somatic symptoms. Results After adjusting for gender, level of education and smoking, those reporting GI complaints had higher risk for later sickness absence (HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.34-1.51. GI complaints were associated with both anxiety (OR = 3.66, 95% CI 3.31-4.04 and depression (OR = 3.28, 95% CI 2.89-3.72, and a high level of other somatic symptoms (OR = 8.50, 95% CI 7.69-9.40. The association of GI complaints was still independently associated with future sickness absence (HR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.10-1.16 adjusting for mental illness and other somatic symptoms. Discussion Sickness absence is a complex behavioural outcome, but our results suggest GI complaints contribute by increasing the risk of long term sickness absence independently of comorbid mental illness and presence of other somatic symptoms. Occupational consequences of illness are important, and should also be addressed clinically with patients presenting with GI complaints.

  9. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  10. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  11. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoping; Zhang, Zhongxia; Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui; Yu, Li

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3-7 days' AQI prediction.

  12. A new model for long-term global water demand projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; Xing, B.; Shi, H.; Zhang, B.

    2015-12-01

    Rational projection of water demand is critically important to the future development of society. Achieving the desired accuracy for long-term water demand projection (WDP) is challenging due to the complex and uncertain relationships between water demand and various socio-economic indicators. At the same time, traditional forecasting methods, such as multivariate statistical analysis and time series analysis methods, are not adequate for long-term WDP because of the limitations in modelling structures. In this study, a five-staged WDP model is proposed and applied to the global WDPs. The hypothesis for the new model is that water demand is related to socio-economic development level. From the historic data in the Western Europe and United States, the five stages of water demand can be clearly observed. These stages are marked by evident change in water demand trend, and are categorized by the per capita GDP at that stage. The proposed WDP model is then validated with historic water consumption data in United Kingdom and Hong Kong, and the proposed model can explain the historic water consumption well. The developed five-staged WDP model is applied to the WDPs in Hong Kong and Pearl River Basin. Further, using the newly developed water consumption algorithm, this study investigates the global future water demand.

  13. Prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury living in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaansen, Jacinthe J E; Douma-Haan, Yvonne; van Asbeck, Floris W A; van Koppenhagen, Casper F; de Groot, Sonja; Smit, Christof A; Visser-Meily, Johanna M A; Post, Marcel W M

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To describe the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury (SCI) and to compare the prevalence of high blood pressure and/or the use of antihypertensive drugs with the prevalence in the Dutch general population. METHOD: Multicentre cro

  14. Risk factors for fecal colonization with multiple distinct strains of Escherichia coli among long-term care facility residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautenbach, Ebbing; Tolomeo, Pam; Black, Nicole; Maslow, Joel N

    2009-05-01

    Of 49 long-term care facility residents, 21 (43%) were colonized with 2 or more distinct strains of Escherichia coli. There were no significant risk factors for colonization with multiple strains of E. coli. These results suggest that future efforts to efficiently identify the diversity of colonizing strains will be challenging.

  15. Prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury living in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaansen, Jacinthe J E; Douma-Haan, Yvonne; van Asbeck, Floris W A; van Koppenhagen, Casper F; de Groot, Sonja; Smit, Christof A; Visser-Meily, Johanna M A; Post, Marcel W M

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: To describe the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury (SCI) and to compare the prevalence of high blood pressure and/or the use of antihypertensive drugs with the prevalence in the Dutch general population. METHOD: Multicentre

  16. Socioeconomic position, type 2 diabetes and long-term risk of death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Else-Marie Dalsgaard

    Full Text Available Both socioeconomic position (SEP and type 2 diabetes have previously been found to be associated with mortality; however, little is known about the association between SEP, type 2 diabetes and long-term mortality when comorbidity is taken into account.We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Danish citizens aged 40-69 years with no history of diabetes during 2001-2006 (N=2,330,206. The cohort was identified using nationwide registers, and it was followed for up to 11 years (mean follow-up was 9.5 years (SD: 2.6. We estimated the age-standardised mortality rate (MR and performed Poisson regression to estimate the mortality-rate-ratio (MRR by educational level, income and cohabiting status among people with and without type 2 diabetes.We followed 2,330,206 people for 22,971,026 person-years at risk and identified 139,681 individuals with type 2 diabetes. In total, 195,661 people died during the study period; 19,959 of these had type 2 diabetes. The age-standardised MR increased with decreasing SEP both for people with and without diabetes. Type 2 diabetes and SEP both had a strong impact on the overall mortality; the combined effect of type 2 diabetes and SEP on mortality was additive rather than multiplicative. Compared to women without diabetes and in the highest income quintile, the MRR's were 2.8 (95%CI 2.6, 3.0 higher for women with type 2 diabetes in the lowest income quintile, while diabetes alone increased the risk of mortality 2.0 (95%CI 1.9, 2.2 times and being in the lowest income quintile without diabetes 1.8 (95%CI 1.7,1.9 times after adjusting for comorbidity. For men, the MRR's were 2.7 (95%CI 2.5,2.9, 1.9 (95%CI 1.8,2.0 and 1.8 (95%CI 1.8,1.9, respectively.Both Type 2 diabetes and SEP were associated with the overall mortality. The relation between type 2 diabetes, SEP, and all-cause mortality was only partly explained by comorbidity.

  17. Simultaneous modelling of operative mortality and long-term survival after coronary artery bypass surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghahramani, M; Dean, C B; Spinelli, J J

    2001-07-15

    Typical analyses of lifetime data treat the time to death or failure as the response variable and use a variety of modelling strategies such as proportional hazards or fully parametric, to investigate the relationship between the response and covariates. In certain circumstances it may be more natural to view the distribution of the response variable as consisting of two or more parts since the survival curve appears segmented. This article addresses such a scenario and we propose a model for simultaneously investigating the effects of covariates over the two segments. The model is an analogue of that proposed by Lambert for zero-inflated Poisson regression. The application is central to the model development and is concerned with survival after coronary artery bypass surgery. Here operative mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery, and long-term mortality, are viewed as distinct outcomes. For the application considered, the survivor function displays much steeper descent during the first 30 days after surgery, that is, for operative mortality, than after this period. An investigation of the effects of covariates on operative and long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery illustrates the usefulness of the proposed model.

  18. Effect of Long-Term Physical Activity Practice after Cardiac Rehabilitation on Some Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyssin, Celine, Jr.; Blanc, Philippe; Verkindt, Chantal; Maunier, Sebastien; Prieur, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of long-term physical activity practice after a cardiac rehabilitation program on weight, physical capacity and arterial compliance. The Dijon Physical Activity Score was used to identify two groups: sedentary and active. Weight, distance at the 6-min walk test and the small artery elasticity…

  19. Modelling Gaucher disease progression: long-term enzyme replacement therapy reduces the incidence of splenectomy and bone complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dussen, Laura; Biegstraaten, Marieke; Dijkgraaf, Marcel Gw; Hollak, Carla Em

    2014-07-24

    Long-term complications and associated conditions of type 1 Gaucher Disease (GD) can include splenectomy, bone complications, pulmonary hypertension, Parkinson disease and malignancies. Enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) reverses cytopenia and reduces organomegaly. To study the effects of ERT on long-term complications and associated conditions, the course of Gaucher disease was modelled.

  20. Use of nursing homes by a high-risk long-term care population.

    OpenAIRE

    Manheim, L M; Hughes, S.L.

    1986-01-01

    Limited information exists concerning lifetime use of nursing home services by the aged. This article examines the longitudinal experience, over four years, of elderly individuals at high risk of institutionalization, and develops a simple model of nursing home use based on these observations. This model allows us to predict future lifetime use under alternative assumptions. The main observations drawn from this sample are that high-risk elderly tend to move from the community to nursing home...

  1. Modelling the long term water yield impact of fire in Eucalypt forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Patrick; Fiekema, Paul; Sherwin, Chris; Peel, Murray; Freebairn, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This study involves physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wild fire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbourne's principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow.

  2. An assessment of long-term overtopping risk and optimal termination time of dam under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bau-Shian; You, Gene Jiing-Yun

    2013-05-30

    Reservoir management faces a wide range of new challenges resulting from the impact of climate change. One set of challenges arises from the non-stationary nature of hydrological conditions. Another crucial issue is watershed sedimentation, which can significantly influence the sustainability and safety of reservoirs. To address these concerns, this study developed a framework for the management of reservoir risk. An analytical conceptual model coupling physical governing relationships and economic tools was proposed, which was then applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. We adopted a statistical representation of future hydrologic conditions with the assumption of time-variant moments and focused on evaluating the impact of an increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and used a stochastic approach to quantify the risk factors. Our results confirm that this approach can be used to identify reservoir-related risks and generate appropriate options for strategy and policy. We determined that the major source of risk is the hydrological conditions, especially the extreme events. More severe intra-annual climatic change is much more dominant in the risk compared to inter-year trends. The influence of reservoir characteristics on risk is associated mainly with the availability of flood control capacity, but limited due to the limitation of its volume and potential to regulate the flow. Engineering may provide an option for mitigating the risk, but integrated, watershed-level approaches, such as providing systematic detention or land use management, are better suited to reducing the storm peak from a long-term perspective. With a critical increase in the risk of overtopping, a high probability of dam failure and corresponding losses may precipitate the need to retire or remove the facility. However, because the benefits and costs are both huge, the decision may be biased by a conservative attitude. The outcome of small

  3. Losartan prevents heart fibrosis induced by long-term intensive exercise in an animal model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gemma Gay-Jordi

    Full Text Available RATIONALE: Recently it has been shown that long-term intensive exercise practice is able to induce myocardial fibrosis in an animal model. Angiotensin II is a profibrotic hormone that could be involved in the cardiac remodeling resulting from endurance exercise. OBJECTIVE: This study examined the antifibrotic effect of losartan, an angiotensin II type 1 receptor antagonist, in an animal model of heart fibrosis induced by long-term intense exercise. METHODS AND RESULTS: Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into 4 experimental groups: Exercise, Exercise plus losartan, Sedentary and Sedentary plus losartan. Exercise groups were conditioned to run vigorously for 16 weeks. Losartan was orally administered daily before each training session (50 mg/kg/day. Time-matched sedentary rats served as controls. After euthanasia, heart hypertrophy was evaluated by histological studies; ventricular collagen deposition was quantified by histological and biochemical studies; and messenger RNA and protein expression of transforming growth factor-β1, fibronectin-1, matrix metalloproteinase-2, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1, procollagen-I and procollagen-III was evaluated in all 4 cardiac chambers. Daily intensive exercise caused hypertrophy in the left ventricular heart wall and originated collagen deposition in the right ventricle. Additionally long-term intensive exercise induced a significant increase in messenger RNA expression and protein synthesis of the major fibrotic markers in both atria and in the right ventricle. Losartan treatment was able to reduce all increases in messenger RNA expression and protein levels caused by exercise, although it could not completely reverse the heart hypertrophy. CONCLUSIONS: Losartan treatment prevents the heart fibrosis induced by endurance exercise in training animals.

  4. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor...... and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without...... LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...

  5. Health incentive research and social justice: does the risk of long term harms to systematically disadvantaged groups bear consideration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Verina; Pratt, Bridget

    2017-03-01

    The ethics of health incentive research-a form of public health research-are not well developed, and concerns of justice have been least examined. In this paper, we explore what potential long term harms in relation to justice may occur as a result of such research and whether they should be considered as part of its ethical evaluation. 'Long term harms' are defined as harms that contribute to existing systematic patterns of disadvantage for groups. Their effects are experienced on a long term basis, persisting even once an incentive research project ends. We will first establish that three categories of such harms potentially arise as a result of health incentive interventions. We then argue that the risk of these harms also constitutes a morally relevant consideration for health incentive research and suggest who may be responsible for assessing and mitigating these risks. We propose that responsibility should be assigned on the basis of who initiates health incentive research projects. Finally, we briefly describe possible strategies to prevent or mitigate the risk of long term harms to members of disadvantaged groups, which can be employed during the design, conduct and dissemination of research projects.

  6. Validation of the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) pulmonary hypertension prediction model in a unique population and utility in the prediction of long-term survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cogswell, Rebecca; Kobashigawa, Erin; McGlothlin, Dana; Shaw, Robin; De Marco, Teresa

    2012-11-01

    The Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial (PAH) Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) model was designed to predict 1-year survival in patients with PAH. Multivariate prediction models need to be evaluated in cohorts distinct from the derivation set to determine external validity. In addition, limited data exist on the utility of this model in the prediction of long-term survival. REVEAL model performance was assessed to predict 1-year and 5-year outcomes, defined as survival or composite survival or freedom from lung transplant, in 140 patients with PAH. The validation cohort had a higher proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (7.9% vs 1.9%, p model to predict survival was 0.765 at 1 year and 0.712 at 5 years of follow-up. The C-index of the model to predict composite survival or freedom from lung transplant was 0.805 and 0.724 at 1 and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. Prediction by the model, however, was weakest among patients with intermediate-risk predicted survival. The REVEAL model had adequate discrimination to predict 1-year survival in this small but clinically distinct validation cohort. Although the model also had predictive ability out to 5 years, prediction was limited among patients of intermediate risk, suggesting our prediction methods can still be improved. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Calibrating and validating a FE model for long-term behavior of RC beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tošić Nikola D.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the research carried out in finding an optimal finite element (FE model for calculating the long-term behavior of reinforced concrete (RC beams. A multi-purpose finite element software DIANA was used. A benchmark test in the form of a simply supported beam loaded in four point bending was selected for model calibration. The result was the choice of 3-node beam elements, a multi-directional fixed crack model with constant stress cut-off, nonlinear tension softening and constant shear retention and a creep and shrinkage model according to CEB-FIP Model Code 1990. The model was then validated on 14 simply supported beams and 6 continuous beams. Good agreement was found with experimental results (within ±15%.

  8. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

    2014-08-01

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett-Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network.

  9. Long-term risk of fatal malignancy following pediatric radiofrequency ablation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clay, Mark A; Campbell, Robert M; Strieper, Margaret; Frias, Patricio A; Stevens, Mary; Mahle, William T

    2008-10-01

    Children undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) are believed to be at increased risk of developing malignancy caused by radiation, although the magnitude of this risk is incompletely understood. We previously reported a strategy to reduce radiation exposure during pediatric RFA. In a cohort of 15 subjects (median age 12 years, range 9 to 17), radiation was measured using dosimeters at 5 sites. The risk of malignancy using measured radiation absorbed dose was calculated. International Council for Radiation Protection 60 risk estimates were applied to calculate absorbed organ doses. Median duration of combined biplane fluoroscopy was 14.4 minutes. Of the 5 dosimeter locations, the right scapular location had the highest median radiation exposure (43 mGy). Incorporating data from the 5 dosimeters, the risk model calculated that the organ with the greatest absorbed dose and at greatest risk of malignancy was the lung, followed by bone marrow, then breast. Thyroid and ovary exposures were negligible. The increased lifetime risk of fatal malignancy was 0.02% per single RFA procedure. In conclusion, with appropriate measures to reduce radiation exposure, the increased risk of malignancy after a single RFA procedure in children is low. These data should be of help counseling families and will contribute to analysis of the relative risk reduction benefits of such novel imaging approaches as a magnetic resonance imaging-based catheterization laboratory.

  10. Clinical Risk Factors for Head Impact During Falls in Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study in Long-Term Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yijian; Mackey, Dawn C; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa; Leung, Pet-Ming; Feldman, Fabio; Robinovitch, Stephen N

    To examine risk factors associated with head impact during falls in older adults in long-term care (LTC). Two LTC facilities in British Columbia, Canada. 160 LTC residents. Prospective cohort study. Between 2007 and 2014, we video captured 520 falls experienced by participants. Each fall video was analyzed to determine whether impact occurred to the head. Using generalized estimating equation models, we examined how head impact was associated with other fall characteristics and health status prior to the fall. Head impact occurred in 33% of falls. Individuals with mild cognitive impairment were at higher risk for head impact (odds ratio = 2.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-5.0) than those with more severe cognitive impairment. Impaired vision was associated with 2.0-fold (1.3-3.0) higher odds of head impact. Women were 2.2 times (1.4-3.3) more likely than men to impact their head during a fall. Head impact is common during falls in LTC, with less cognitively impaired, female residents who suffered from visual impairment, being most likely to impact their head. Future research should focus on improving our ability to detect neural consequences of head impact and evaluating the effect of interventions for reducing the risk for fall-related head injuries in LTC.

  11. Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

    2015-04-01

    Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to

  12. Coaches’ Adoption and Implementation of Sport Canada’s Long-Term Athlete Development Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Beaudoin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work explores the adoption and implementation of Sport Canada’s long-term athlete development (LTAD model by coaches and tries to understand the barriers to and enablers of these processes. LTAD adoption was studied in 14 coaches (5 female, 9 male in seven sports while implementation was assessed among 10 different coaches (2 female, 8 male from nine sports. Semistructured interviews ascertained coaches’ perceptions of and experiences with the LTAD model in their coaching practice. Coaches adhered to the global vision and general principles of LTAD. However, several barriers to LTAD adoption and implementation were identified. A mismatch between the model’s long-term and the short-term visions of results in sport was perceived as deterrent to LTAD adoption and implementation. Coaches involved in early development sports mentioned a lack of compatibility of LTAD with the demands of their sport. Coaches also perceived complexity in LTAD athlete’s developmental stage determination and the identification of “windows of opportunity” or critical periods. These barriers should be addressed to complete diffusion of LTAD among Canadian coaches.

  13. Modeling and characterization of long term material behavior in polymer composites with woven fiber architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vikas

    The purpose of this research is to develop an analytical tool which, when coupled with accelerated material characterization, is capable of predicting long-term durability of polymers and their composites. Conducting creep test on each composite laminate with different fibers, fiber volume fractions, and weave architectures is impractical. Moreover, in case of thin laminates, accurately characterizing the out-of-plane matrix dominated viscoelastic response is not easily achievable. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to present a multi-scale modeling methodology to simulate the long-term interlaminar properties in polymer matrix woven composites and then predict the critical regions where failure is most likely to occur. A micromechanics approach towards modeling the out-of-plane viscoelastic behavior of a five-harness satin woven-fiber cross-ply composite laminate is presented, taking into consideration the weave architecture and time-dependent effects. Short-term creep tests were performed on neat resin at different test temperatures and stress levels to characterize physical aging of the resin matrix. In addition, creep and recovery experiments were conducted on un-aged resin specimens in order to characterize the pronounced stress-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic response of the PR500 resin. Two-dimensional micromechanics analysis was carried out using a test-bed finite element code, NOVA-3D, including interactions between non-linear material constitutive behavior, geometric nonlinearity, aging and environmental effects.

  14. Modeling Long-Term Turbidity Variation In A Large Estuary In Temperate Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.; Cerco, C. F.

    2012-12-01

    Turbidity, induced by suspended solids, impacts the ecosystem of an estuary through light attenuation and nutrients and contaminants associated with the suspended sediments. Sediment transport module was built into existing water quality model, CE-QUAL-ICM, for the Chesapeake Bay to better represent dynamics of total suspended solids (TSS). The transport process was supplied by a numerical hydrodynamic model, the Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in Three Dimensions, Waterway Experiment Station version (CH3D-WES). Grid resolution and spatial coverage, tied with realistic bathymetry, ensured dynamic responses along the channel and near the shoreline. The model was run with the forcing ranges from high frequency astronomical tides to lower frequency meteorological forcing, given by surface wind and heat flux, as well as hydrological forcing given by fresh water inflows both from upstream and distributed sources along the shoreline. Comparable to hydrological forcing, loadings of sediments to the Bay were imposed as above fall line load and distributed or non-point source load as well as atmospheric loading. In addition, shoreline erosion was also considered as a sediment source. Dynamic response of sediment bed was estimated by implicating wave-current interacting bottom boundary layer dynamics. The sediment transport model was based on the hypothesis that surface TSS is dependent on sediment loading whereas bottom TSS reflects bed dynamics. To validate the model, a long-term simulation over 7 year time period between 1994 and 2000 was performed. The model results were compared with existing observation data including water level time series, which spans over a wide spectrum of time scales, and long-term variations in salinity structures and total suspended solid distribution over varying parts of the Bay. The validated model is set to provide an appropriate transport mechanism to the water quality model through linkage, warranting that the model takes into account the

  15. Estrogen metabolism genotypes, use of long-term hormone replacement therapy and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerne, Jasmina Ziva; Novakovic, Srdjan; Frkovic-Grazio, Snjezana; Pohar-Perme, Maja; Stegel, Vida; Gersak, Ksenija

    2011-08-01

    Association between long-term hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use and increased risk of breast cancer is still under debate. Functionally relevant genetic variants within the estrogen metabolic pathway may alter exposure to exogenous sex hormones and affect the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. We investigated the associations of common polymorphisms in 4 genes encoding key proteins of the estrogen metabolic pathway, duration of HRT use and their interactions with breast cancer risk. We studied 530 breast cancer cases and 270 controls of the same age and ethnicity participating in a case-control study of postmenopausal women. Duration of HRT use was ascertained through a postal questionnaire. Genotyping was conducted for CYP1B1 (rs1056836), COMT (rs4680), GSTP1 (rs1695) and MnSOD (rs4880) polymorphisms by PCR-based RFLP and TaqMan® allelic discrimination method. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using logistic regression analysis. HRT use was significantly associated with decreased breast cancer risk (pC and HRT use (pinteraction=0.036); the risk of breast cancer associated with long-term vs. short-term HRT use was decreased in women homozygous for the wild-type allele and increased in women with at least one variant allele of the MnSOD 47T>C polymorphism. Our results suggest that MnSOD 47T>C polymorphism in interaction with long-term HRT use may modify the risk of breast cancer.

  16. Who is at risk for long-term sickness absence? A prospective cohort study of Danish employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Thomas; Labriola, Merete; Villadsen, Ebbe

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify who is at risk for long-term sickness absence according to occupation, gender, education, age, business sector, agency size and ownership. The study is based on a sample of 5357 employees aged 18-69, interviewed in 2000. The cohort was followed up in a national register from January 1st 2001 to June 30th 2003, to identify cases with sickness absences that exceeded 8 weeks. During follow-up 486 persons (9.1%) experienced one or more periods of absence that exceeded 8 weeks. Higher risk of long-term sickness absence was associated with gender, age, educational level, and the municipal employment sector. Kindergarten teachers and people employed in day care, health care, janitorial work, food preparation, and unskilled workers were at greatest risk. Managers, computer professionals, technicians and designers, and professionals had lower risks. The health care and social service sectors were also in the high risk category, whereas the private administration sector had a lower risk. The study identifies specific occupational target populations and documents the need to perform job-specific research and tailor interventions if the intended policy of decreasing long-term sickness absence within the Danish labour market is to be realized.

  17. Biological effects of long-term exposure to low dose-rate radiation -- Comparisons of WAM model and LQ model

    CERN Document Server

    Wada, Takahiro; Nakamura, Issei; Tsunoyama, Yuichi; Nakajima, Hiroo; Bando, Masako

    2015-01-01

    Newly proposed Whack-A-Mole (WAM) model which is to be used to estimate the biological effects of artificial radiations is compared with conventionally used Linear-Quadratic model. Basic properties of WAM model are discussed emphasizing on the dose-rate dependence. By adopting the parameters that are determined to fit the mega mouse experiments, biological effects of long-term exposure to extremely low dose-rate radiation are discussed. In WAM model, the effects of the long-term exposure show a saturation property, which makes a clear distinction from the LNT hypothesis which predicts a linear increase of the effects with time.

  18. Long-Term Adult Feline Liver Organoid Cultures for Disease Modeling of Hepatic Steatosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig S. Kruitwagen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Hepatic steatosis is a highly prevalent liver disease, yet research is hampered by the lack of tractable cellular and animal models. Steatosis also occurs in cats, where it can cause severe hepatic failure. Previous studies demonstrate the potential of liver organoids for modeling genetic diseases. To examine the possibility of using organoids to model steatosis, we established a long-term feline liver organoid culture with adult liver stem cell characteristics and differentiation potential toward hepatocyte-like cells. Next, organoids from mouse, human, dog, and cat liver were provided with fatty acids. Lipid accumulation was observed in all organoids and interestingly, feline liver organoids accumulated more lipid droplets than human organoids. Finally, we demonstrate effects of interference with β-oxidation on lipid accumulation in feline liver organoids. In conclusion, feline liver organoids can be successfully cultured and display a predisposition for lipid accumulation, making them an interesting model in hepatic steatosis research.

  19. Ionospheric modeling for short- and long-term predictions of F region parameters over Indian zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabas, R. S.; Sharma, Kavita; Das, Rupesh M.; Sethi, N. K.; Pillai, K. G. M.; Mishra, A. K.

    2008-03-01

    The equatorial and low latitudinal F region ionosphere is highly dynamic and unpredictable because of various geophysical mechanisms operating therein. In the present study, two HF prediction models for short and long term are developed for equatorial and low-latitude F region ionosphere. In the first approach, multiple regression analysis (MRA) for the dependence of F region parameters, namely, foF2 and M(3000)F2, on solar 2800 MHz flux (F10) and geomagnetic index Ap are generated, and in the second one, second-degree (SD) coefficients are generated, both by fitting monthly median foF2 and M(3000)F2 with corresponding 12 monthly mean sunspot numbers (R12) using data over three solar cycles. For MRA, daily foF2 and M(3000)F2 values for each hour obtained from Delhi (28.6°N, 77.1°E) digital ionosonde for about half a solar cycle are used. MRA coefficients for foF2 and M(3000)F2 are obtained for every month over 2400 UT times using daily F10 and Ap values separately for quiet (Ap 25) periods. Similarly, SD coefficients are obtained each month at all local times for all the 14 stations covering a geographic latitude range from about 0°N to 45°N. In this way, once appropriate coefficients for each hour for all the 12 months are obtained, they are used by the computer-based MRA and SD models to predict ionospheric hourly foF2 and hmF2 values for given inputs such as month, F10, Ap, and R12, as the case may be. Predicted model values of foF2 and hmF2, calculated on short- and long-term basis, are then compared with the observed data over Delhi and also with those obtained using international reference ionosphere (IRI)-2001 model. From our comparative studies it is observed that MRA and SD models show better agreement with observations compared to the IRI model for both long- and short-term basis and among the two the MRA model provides best agreement with the observed ones, even during the magnetic storm periods. The SD model, on the other hand, which is based on

  20. Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila Alejandra Puntel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add

  1. Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2016-01-01

    Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L.) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L.) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha(-1)) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha(-1)). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward

  2. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  3. Improved maternal nutrition decreases children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robertson, Aileen

    2016-01-01

    Improved maternal nutrition to decrease children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity The nutritional well-being of pregnant women affects not only their health and their fetuses' development but also children's long-term risk of developing NCDs or obesity, according...... been recognized for decades, the report offers a systematized review of the most recent evidence on maternal nutrition and obesity and NCD prevention. The findings confirm that a mother's nutritional status – including overweight and obesity, excessive gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes...... – affects not only her child's health as an infant but also the child's risk of obesity and related chronic diseases as an adult. In short, maternal nutrition can truly have an intergenerational impact. Fighting NCDs and obesity through measures to improve maternal nutrition: NCDs are the leading cause...

  4. Surrogates of Long-Term Vitamin D Exposure and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Two Prospective Cohort Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prescott, Jennifer, E-mail: jennifer.prescott@channing.harvard.edu; Bertrand, Kimberly A.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Tworoger, Shelley S. [Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, 181 Longwood Ave. Boston, MA 02115 (United States)

    2013-11-22

    Experimental evidence and ecologic studies suggest a protective role of vitamin D in ovarian carcinogenesis. However, epidemiologic studies using individual level data have been inconsistent. We evaluated ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation, vitamin D intake, and predicted plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels as long-term surrogates of vitamin D exposure within the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. We estimated incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of overall ovarian cancer and by histologic subtype using Cox proportional hazards models. Between 1976 and 2010 in NHS and 1989 and 2011 in NHSII, we identified a total of 1,225 incident epithelial ovarian cancer cases (NHS: 970, NHSII: 255) over 4,628,648 person-years of follow-up. Cumulative average UV-B exposure was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in NHS (P{sub trend} = 0.08), but was associated with reduced risk in NHSII (highest vs. lowest category RR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.89; P{sub trend} < 0.01). When stratified by histologic subtype, UV-B flux was positively associated with risk of serous tumors in NHS (P{sub trend} < 0.01), but inversely associated in NHSII (P{sub trend} = 0.01). Adjusted for confounders, ovarian cancer risk was not associated with vitamin D intake from food or supplements or with predicted 25(OH)D levels. Our study does not strongly support a protective role for vitamin D in ovarian cancer risk.

  5. Threshold of musculoskeletal pain intensity for increased risk of long-term sickness absence among female healthcare workers in eldercare.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars L Andersen

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Musculoskeletal disorders increase the risk for absenteeism and work disability. However, the threshold when musculoskeletal pain intensity significantly increases the risk of sickness absence among different occupations is unknown. This study estimates the risk for long-term sickness absence (LTSA from different pain intensities in the low back, neck/shoulder and knees among female healthcare workers in eldercare. METHODS: Prospective cohort study among 8,732 Danish female healthcare workers responding to a questionnaire in 2004-2005, and subsequently followed for one year in a national register of social transfer payments (DREAM. Using Cox regression hazard ratio (HR analysis we modeled risk estimates of pain intensities on a scale from 0-9 (reference 0, where 0 is no pain and 9 is worst imaginable pain in the low back, neck/shoulders and knees during the last three months for onset of LTSA (receiving sickness absence compensation for at least eight consecutive weeks during one-year follow-up. RESULTS: During follow-up, the 12-month prevalence of LTSA was 6.3%. With adjustment for age, BMI, smoking and leisure physical activity, the thresholds of pain intensities significantly increasing risk of LTSA for the low back (HR 1.44 [95%CI 1.07-1.93], neck/shoulders (HR 1.47 [95%CI 1.10-1.96] and knees (HR 1.43 [95%CI 1.06-1.93] were 5, 4 and 3 (scale 0-9, respectively, referencing pain intensity of 0. CONCLUSION: The threshold of pain intensity significantly increasing the risk for LTSA among female healthcare workers varies across body regions, with knee pain having the lowest threshold. This knowledge may be used in the prevention of LTSA among health care workers.

  6. Long-term modeling of alteration-transport coupling: Application to a fractured Roman glass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verney-Carron, Aurélie; Gin, Stéphane; Frugier, Pierre; Libourel, Guy

    2010-04-01

    To improve confidence in glass alteration models, as used in nuclear and natural applications, their long-term predictive capacity has to be validated. For this purpose, we develop a new model that couples geochemical reactions with transport and use a fractured archaeological glass block that has been altered for 1800 years under well-constrained conditions in order to test the capacity of the model. The chemical model considers three steps in the alteration process: (1) formation of a hydrated glass by interdiffusion, whose kinetics are controlled by a pH and temperature dependent diffusion coefficient; (2) the dissolution of the hydrated glass, whose kinetics are based on an affinity law; (3) the precipitation of secondary phases if thermodynamic saturation is reached. All kinetic parameters were determined from experiments. The model was initially tested on alteration experiments in different solutions (pure water, Tris, seawater). It was then coupled with diffusive transport in solution to simulate alteration in cracks within the glass. Results of the simulations run over 1800 years are in good agreement with archaeological glass block observations concerning the nature of alteration products (hydrated glass, smectites, and carbonates) and crack alteration thicknesses. External cracks in direct contact with renewed seawater were altered at the forward dissolution rate and are filled with smectites (400-500 μm). Internal cracks are less altered (by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude) because of the strong coupling between alteration chemistry and transport. The initial crack aperture, the distance to the surface, and sealing by secondary phases account for these low alteration thicknesses. The agreement between simulations and observations thus validates the predictive capacity of this coupled geochemical model and increases more generally the robustness and confidence in glass alteration models to predict long-term behavior of nuclear waste in geological disposal or

  7. Change of Exposure Response over Time and Long-Term Risk of Silicosis among a Cohort of Chinese Pottery Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuewei Liu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available An analysis was conducted on a cohort of Chinese pottery workers to estimate the exposure-response relationship between respirable crystalline silica dust exposure and the incidence of radiographically diagnosed silicosis, and to estimate the long-term risk of developing silicosis until the age of 65. The cohort comprised 3,250 employees with a median follow-up duration of around 37 years. Incident cases of silicosis were identified via silicosis registries (Chinese X-ray stage I, similar to International Labor Organisation classification scheme profusion category 1/1. Individual exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust was estimated based on over 100,000 historical dust measurements. The association between dust exposure, incidence and long-time risk of silicosis was quantified by Poisson regression analysis adjusted for age and smoking. The risk of silicosis depended not only on the cumulative respirable crystalline silica dust exposures, but also on the time-dependent respirable crystalline silica dust exposure pattern (long-term average concentration, highest annual concentration ever experienced and time since first exposure. A long-term “excess” risk of silicosis of approximately 1.5/1,000 was estimated among workers with all annual respirable crystalline silica dust concentration estimates less than 0.1 mg/m3, using the German measurement strategy. This study indicates the importance of proper consideration of exposure information in risk quantification in epidemiological studies.

  8. Long-term soil organic carbon changes in cereal and ley rotations: model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kynding Borgen, Signe; Dörsch, Peter; Krogstad, Tore; Azzaroli Bleken, Marina

    2015-04-01

    Reliable modeling of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in agroecosystems is crucial to define mitigation strategies related to crop management on the farm scale as well as the regional scale. International climate agreements and national political decisions rely to a large extent on the National Greenhouse gas Inventory Reports that are submitted annually to the UNFCCC. However, lower tier methods are used to estimate SOC changes on cropland in most country reports. The application of mechanistic models in national greenhouse gas inventory estimation requires proper model testing against measurements in order to verify the estimated emissions. Few long-term field experiments measuring SOC stock changes have been conducted in Norway. We evaluate the performance of the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM) in simulating SOC changes over 60 years in a field experiment conducted in Ås from 1953-2013. The site is located in south-eastern Norway, on the boarder of the boreal and temperate climate zone, where the majority of the country's grain production occurs. The field trial consisted of four rotations: I) continuous cereal, II) cereal + row crops, III) 2 years of ley + 4 years of cereal, IV) 4 years of ley + 2 years of cereal, and four treatments per rotation: a) low NPK, b) high NPK, c) low NPK + FYM, and d) straw (on rotations I and II) or high NPK + FYM (on rotations III and IV). The annual external modifying factor of the decomposition rate was calculated based on daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and net radiation, and adjusted for soil type and crop management according to default ICBM calibration. We present results of simulated C changes for the long term plots and explore options to improve parameter calibration. Finally, we provide suggestions for how problems regarding model verification can be handled with when applying the model on a national scale for inventory reporting.

  9. Modelling long term rockslide displacements with non-linear time-dependent relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Caro, Mattia; Volpi, Giorgio; Castellanza, Riccardo; Crosta, Giovanni; Agliardi, Federico

    2015-04-01

    Rockslides undergoing rapid changes in behaviour pose major risks in alpine areas, and require careful characterization and monitoring both for civil protection and mitigation activities. In particular, these instabilities can undergo very slow movement with occasional and intermittent acceleration/deceleration stages of motion potentially leading to collapse. Therefore, the analysis of such instabilities remains a challenging issue. Rockslide displacements are strongly conditioned by hydrologic factors as suggested by correlations with groundwater fluctuations, snowmelt, with a frequently observed delay between perturbation and system reaction. The aim of this work is the simulation of the complex time-dependent behaviour of two case studies for which also a 2D transient hydrogeological simulation has been performed: Vajont rockslide (1960 to 1963) and the recent Mt. de La Saxe rockslide (2009 to 2012). Non-linear time-dependent constitutive relationships have been used to describe long-term creep deformation. Analyses have been performed using a "rheological-mechanical" approach that fits idealized models (e.g. viscoelastic, viscoplastic, elasto-viscoplastic, Burgers, nonlinear visco-plastic) to the experimental behaviour of specific materials by means of numerical constants. Bidimensional simulations were carried out using the finite difference code FLAC. Displacements time-series, available for the two landslides, show two superimposed deformation mechanisms: a creep process, leading to movements under "steady state" conditions (e.g. constant groundwater level), and a "dynamic" process, leading to an increase in displacement rate due to changes of external loads (e.g. groundwater level). For both cases sliding mass is considered as an elasto-plastic body subject to its self-weight, inertial and seepage forces varying with time according to water table fluctuation (due to snowmelt or changing in reservoir level) and derived from the previous hydrogeological

  10. Bioavailability links mode of action can improve the long-term field risk assessment for tilapia exposed to arsenic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Liao, Chung-Min

    2009-05-01

    The objective of this paper was to develop a mechanistic-based framework to explicitly incorporate the factors controlling the bioavailability, toxicodynamics and mode of action to enhance predictive ability of arsenic (As) toxicity to protect the health of farmed tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus. We linked the biotic ligand model and damage assessment model to develop a toxicokinetic model for elucidating the site-specific temporal changes of As bioavailability and to characterize how the fish regulate the metal toxicity. We built a bioavailability-mode of action-based growth toxicity model by linking a bioenergetic growth model and damage assessment model to predict how the As affects on the tilapia growth in the entire life span in site-specific field ecosystems. Here we show that the proposed model well describes the water-chemistry-dependent toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics variations of As to tilapia. We selected two local tilapia farms with different water chemistries located at southwestern Taiwan coast region to implement the proposed algorithm to predict the risk of As exposure. Results indicate that the growth toxicity of O. mossambicus in Taihsi is more sensitive than that in Peimen. We found that the effect of ion competition on the As bioavailability and their ecotoxicological effects on tilapia are more obvious in Taihsi comparing with that in Peimen. We suggested that the proposed bioavailability- and mode of action-based framework can be used to capture the biological response and regulation of tilapia to As exposures. It is applicable for a site-specific and long-term ecotoxicological risk assessment.

  11. Long-term ambient air pollution exposure and risk of high blood pressure among citizens in Nis, Serbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanković, Aleksandra; Nikolić, Maja

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies suggest that long-term exposure to air pollution increases the risk for high blood pressure (BP). The aim of our study is to evaluate any effects in BP in citizens exposed to long-term ambient air pollution. The subjects are 1136 citizens, aged 18-70 years, living for more than 5 years in the same home in the areas with a different level of air pollution. The air concentrations of black smoke and sulfur dioxide were determined in the period from 2001 to 2011. We measured systolic and diastolic BP and heart rate. Multivariate methods were used in the analysis. Alcohol consumption had the greatest influence on the incidence of hypertension as a risk factor (RR: 3.461; 95% CI: 1.72-6.93) and age had the least (RR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.183-1.92). Exposure to air pollution increases risk for developing hypertension 2.5 times (95% CI: 1.46-4.49). Physical activity has proved to be statistically significant protective factor for the development of hypertension. Long-term exposure to low levels of main air pollutants is significantly associated with elevated risk of hypertension.

  12. Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan for Flood Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    material size are shown in Figure 28. Figure 28. P ipe lin e Pump ing Dis tances in Rela tion to Materia l S ize From RM 0.1 to 2.0...calculate erosion or deposition by balancing sediment supply and transport capacity calculated from reach-averaged hydraulics. There are a variety of...aspect of dike design is to balance the need for increased Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan Progress Report Final June 2010 C-60

  13. Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1997-10-01

    Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

  14. Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren

    2011-01-01

    Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier...... and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of ≥11 years was not related to an increased vestibular...... reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma...

  15. Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren

    2011-01-01

    Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier...... and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of =11 years was not related to an increased vestibular...... reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma...

  16. Improved maternal nutrition decreases children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robertson, Aileen

    2016-01-01

    Improved maternal nutrition to decrease children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity The nutritional well-being of pregnant women affects not only their health and their fetuses' development but also children's long-term risk of developing NCDs or obesity, according...... of death and disability in the WHO European Region. The need to address the current epidemics of obesity, diabetes and other NCDs is already identified as a major health priority: the European policy framework, Health 2020, and Sustainable Development Goal 3 have specific targets related to NCDs....... The evidence emphasizes the need to implement strategies to optimize the nutrition of reproductive-age women. The evidence suggests that such interventions are among the most effective and sustainable means of achieving positive effects on health and reducing health inequalities across the next generation...

  17. The Soul Mates Model: A Seven-Stage Model for Couple's Long-Term Relationship Development and Flourishing

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Lama, Luisa Batthyany; De La Lama, Luis; Wittgenstein, Ariana

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the integrative soul mates relationship development model, which provides the helping professionals with a conceptual map for couples' relationship development from dating, to intimacy, to soul mating, and long-term flourishing. This model is informed by a holistic, a developmental, and a positive psychology conceptualization…

  18. The Soul Mates Model: A Seven-Stage Model for Couple's Long-Term Relationship Development and Flourishing

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Lama, Luisa Batthyany; De La Lama, Luis; Wittgenstein, Ariana

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the integrative soul mates relationship development model, which provides the helping professionals with a conceptual map for couples' relationship development from dating, to intimacy, to soul mating, and long-term flourishing. This model is informed by a holistic, a developmental, and a positive psychology conceptualization…

  19. Long-term impact of preeclampsia on maternal endometrial cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallum, Sara; Pinborg, Anja; Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Endometrial cancer is mainly dependent on oestrogen exposure. Preeclampsia has shown to reduce oestrogen levels hence preeclampsia may affect later endometrial cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 523 Danish women with endometrial cancer and 52 299controls during...... 1978-2010. The association between preeclampsia and later endometrial cancer was evaluated overall and according to preeclampsia onset and type of endometrial cancer in conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed no overall association between preeclampsia and endometrial cancer risk...... (OR=1.11 (95% CI 0.68-1.81)). This was true for all endometrial cancer subtypes. In an analysis of preeclampsia onset, however, we report a markedly increased risk of endometrial cancer following early-onset preeclampsia (OR=2.64 (95% CI 1.29-5.38)). CONCLUSIONS: Although we report no obvious...

  20. Is digoxin an independent risk factor for long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Køber, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Gadsbøll, N;

    1994-01-01

    age, LVEF, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, atrial fibrillation or flutter, ventricular fibrillation, gender, dose of furosemide at discharge and calcium antagonists and digoxin treatment as covariates, digoxin was independently associated with an increased risk of death (relative risk 1.8 (95....... Clinical data were collected on admission. All patients were followed up with regard to death (median 6.2 years, range 3.9-7.8 years). Patients treated with digoxin (N = 172 (29%) were older (median 66 vs 59 years; (P diabetes (13% vs 7%; P = 0.025), and a lower LVEF (0.......001). The increased risk associated with digoxin therapy remained statistically significant when patients were stratified according to the presence or absence of heart failure or atrial fibrillation/flutter during hospitalization, or to LVEF above or below 0.45 at discharge. In a proportional hazard model including...

  1. The design of long-term effective uranium bioremediation strategy using a community metabolic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, K; Ma, E; Lovley, Derek R; Mahadevan, Radhakrishnan

    2012-10-01

    Acetate amendment at uranium contaminated sites in Rifle, CO. leads to an initial bloom of Geobacter accompanied by the removal of U(VI) from the groundwater, followed by an increase of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRBs) which are poor reducers of U(VI). One of the challenges associated with bioremediation is the decay in Geobacter abundance, which has been attributed to the depletion of bio-accessible Fe(III), motivating the investigation of simultaneous amendments of acetate and Fe(III) as an alternative bioremediation strategy. In order to understand the community metabolism of Geobacter and SRBs during artificial substrate amendment, we have created a genome-scale dynamic community model of Geobacter and SRBs using the previously described Dynamic Multi-species Metabolic Modeling framework. Optimization techniques are used to determine the optimal acetate and Fe(III) addition profile. Field-scale simulation of acetate addition accurately predicted the in situ data. The simulations suggest that batch amendment of Fe(III) along with continuous acetate addition is insufficient to promote long-term bioremediation, while continuous amendment of Fe(III) along with continuous acetate addition is sufficient to promote long-term bioremediation. By computationally minimizing the acetate and Fe(III) addition rates as well as the difference between the predicted and target uranium concentration, we showed that it is possible to maintain the uranium concentration below the environmental safety standard while minimizing the cost of chemical additions. These simulations show that simultaneous addition of acetate and Fe(III) has the potential to be an effective uranium bioremediation strategy. They also show that computational modeling of microbial community is an important tool to design effective strategies for practical applications in environmental biotechnology.

  2. How can we use MODIS land surface temperature to validate long-term urban model simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Leiqiu; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Barlage, Michael; Wilhelmi, Olga V.

    2014-03-01

    High spatial resolution urban climate modeling is essential for understanding urban climatology and predicting the human health impacts under climate change. Satellite thermal remote-sensing data are potential observational sources for urban climate model validation with comparable spatial scales, temporal consistency, broad coverage, and long-term archives. However, sensor view angle, cloud distribution, and cloud-contaminated pixels can confound comparisons between satellite land surface temperature (LST) and modeled surface radiometric temperature. The impacts of sensor view angles on urban LST values are investigated and addressed. Three methods to minimize the confounding factors of clouds are proposed and evaluated using 10years of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and simulations from the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) over Greater Houston, Texas, U.S. For the satellite cloud mask (SCM) method, prior to comparison, the cloud mask for each MODIS scene is applied to its concurrent HRLDAS simulation. For the max/min temperature (MMT) method, the 50 warmest days and coolest nights for each data set are selected and compared to avoid cloud impacts. For the high clear-sky fraction (HCF) method, only those MODIS scenes that have a high percentage of clear-sky pixels are compared. The SCM method is recommended for validation of long-term simulations because it provides the largest sample size as well as temporal consistency with the simulations. The MMT method is best for comparison at the extremes. And the HCF method gives the best absolute temperature comparison due to the spatial and temporal consistency between simulations and observations.

  3. Rodent model for assessing the long term safety and performance of peripheral nerve recording electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasudevan, Srikanth; Patel, Kunal; Welle, Cristin

    2017-02-01

    Objective. In the US alone, there are approximately 185 000 cases of limb amputation annually, which can reduce the quality of life for those individuals. Current prosthesis technology could be improved by access to signals from the nervous system for intuitive prosthesis control. After amputation, residual peripheral nerves continue to convey motor signals and electrical stimulation of these nerves can elicit sensory percepts. However, current technology for extracting information directly from peripheral nerves has limited chronic reliability, and novel approaches must be vetted to ensure safe long-term use. The present study aims to optimize methods to establish a test platform using rodent model to assess the long term safety and performance of electrode interfaces implanted in the peripheral nerves. Approach. Floating Microelectrode Arrays (FMA, Microprobes for Life Sciences) were implanted into the rodent sciatic nerve. Weekly in vivo recordings and impedance measurements were performed in animals to assess performance and physical integrity of electrodes. Motor (walking track analysis) and sensory (Von Frey) function tests were used to assess change in nerve function due to the implant. Following the terminal recording session, the nerve was explanted and the health of axons, myelin and surrounding tissues were assessed using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The explanted electrodes were visualized under high magnification using scanning electrode microscopy (SEM) to observe any physical damage. Main results. Recordings of axonal action potentials demonstrated notable session-to-session variability. Impedance of the electrodes increased upon implantation and displayed relative stability until electrode failure. Initial deficits in motor function recovered by 2 weeks, while sensory deficits persisted through 6 weeks of assessment. The primary cause of failure was identified as lead wire breakage in all of animals. IHC indicated myelinated and unmyelinated axons

  4. Long term treatment with gabapentin in an animal model of chronic neuropathic pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baastrup, C. S.; Andrews, N.; Wegener, Gregers

    2013-01-01

    In preclinical animal pain research potential efficacy of a drug is often evaluate after a single exposure, which is in contrast to the long lasting treatment needed in chronic neuropathic pain (CNP) patients. Gabapentin remains one of the most efficacious drugs in the treatment of CNP. The aims...... of the study were to evaluate the spinal cord contusion (SCC) model and 2 different measures of painlike behaviour using a long term treatment schedule with gabapentin. Furthermore the effect on mobility and on anxiety, a pain-related behaviour, was included. 40 Female SD rats with a T13 SCC and sham animals...... was measured after initial dose, 1 and 6 weeks of treatment. Preliminary results show that saline-treated SCC animals (N=10) have significantly lower MST with supra-spinal responses on the thorax compared to saline-treated shams (N=10), and gabapentin-treated SCC (N=10) and sham animals (N=10) throughout...

  5. Long-term homeostasis and wound healing in an in vitro epithelial stem cell niche model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyashita, Hideyuki; Niwano, Hiroko; Yoshida, Satoru; Hatou, Shin; Inagaki, Emi; Tsubota, Kazuo; Shimmura, Shigeto

    2017-01-01

    Cultures of epithelial cells are limited by the proliferative capacity of primary cells and cell senescence. Herein we show that primary human epithelial cell sheets cultured without dermal equivalents maintained homeostasis in vitro for at least 1 year. Transparency of these sheets enabled live observation of pigmented melanocytes and Fluorescent Ubiquitination-based Cell Cycle Indicator (FUCCI) labeled epithelial cells during wound healing. Cell turn over and KRT15 expression pattern stabilized within 3 months, when KRT15 bright clusters often associated with niche-like melanocytes became apparent. EdU labels were retained in a subset of epithelial cells and melanocytes after 6 months chasing, suggesting their slow cell cycling property. FUCCI-labeling demonstrated robust cell migration and proliferation following wounding. Transparency and long-term (1 year) homeostasis of this model will be a powerful tool for the study of wound healing and cell linage tracing. PMID:28233843

  6. Long term treatment with gabapentin in an animal model of chronic neuropathic pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baastrup, C. S.; Andrews, N.; Wegener, Gregers

    2013-01-01

    . Daily treatment with gabapentin 30 mg/kg sc. or saline for 6 consecutive weeks. Mechanical sensitivity thresholds (MST) to von Frey stimulation of hindpaws and thorax measured by both reflex withdrawal and supra-spinal responses. Anxiety-like behaviour using the openfield paradigm. Drug effect...... the study. The SCC animals had significantly decreased MST with reflex responses on the hindpaws in the two first time points compared with gabapentin-treated SCC animals (and both sham groups). There was no effect of injury on the MST with supra-spinal responses on the hindpaws and thus no effect...... of the study were to evaluate the spinal cord contusion (SCC) model and 2 different measures of painlike behaviour using a long term treatment schedule with gabapentin. Furthermore the effect on mobility and on anxiety, a pain-related behaviour, was included. 40 Female SD rats with a T13 SCC and sham animals...

  7. Long-Term Sunspot Number Prediction based on EMD Analysis and AR Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tong Xu; Jian Wu; Zhen-Sen Wu; Qiang Li

    2008-01-01

    The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Auto-Regressive model (AR) are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction: different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.

  8. Nuclear Radiation Fields on the Mars Surface: Risk Analysis for Long-term Living Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brooke M.; Clowdsley, Martha S.; Qualls, Garry D.; Nealy, John E.

    2005-01-01

    Mars, our nearest planet outward from the sun, has been targeted for several decades as a prospective site for expanded human habitation. Background space radiation exposures on Mars are expected to be orders of magnitude higher than on Earth. Recent risk analysis procedures based on detailed dosimetric techniques applicable to sensitive human organs have been developed along with experimental data regarding cell mutation rates resulting from exposures to a broad range of particle types and energy spectra. In this context, simulated exposure and subsequent risk for humans in residence on Mars are examined. A conceptual habitat structure, CAD-modeled with duly considered inherent shielding properties, has been implemented. Body self-shielding is evaluated using NASA standard computerized male and female models. The background environment is taken to consist not only of exposure from incident cosmic ray ions and their secondaries, but also include the contribution from secondary neutron fields produced in the tenuous atmosphere and the underlying regolith.

  9. Estimation of long-term risk from Canadian uranium mill tailings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, M L; Chambers, D B; Knapp, R A; Kaplan, S

    1987-09-01

    A methodology is presented for assessing the risk from Canadian uranium mill tailings piles. The methodology is based on the "set of triplets" concept and uses an event tree to identify various scenarios representing the performance of a pile over its 1,000-year design life. Compartment-type mathematical models are used to quantify the movement of hazardous substances through the environment. Numerical examples are given of both "level 1" (straight probabilistic) and "level 2" (probability of frequency) type analyses.

  10. Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; DeAngelis, Don; Rayamajhi, Min B.; Botkin, Daniel B.

    2017-01-01

    ContextMelaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (hereafter melaleuca) is an invasive tree from Australia that has spread over the freshwater ecosystems of southern Florida, displacing native vegetation, thus threatening native biodiversity. Suppression of melaleuca appears to be progressing through the introduction of insect species, the weevil, Oxiops vitiosa, and the psyllid, Boreioglycaspis melaleucae.ObjectiveTo improve understanding of the possible effects of herbivory on the landscape dynamics of melaleuca in native southern Florida plant communities.MethodsWe projected likely future changes in plant communities using the individual based modeling platform, JABOWA-II, by simulating successional processes occurring in two types of southern Florida habitat, cypress swamp and bay swamp, occupied by native species and melaleuca, with the impact of insect herbivores.ResultsComputer simulations show melaleuca invasion leads to decreases in density and basal area of native species, but herbivory would effectively control melaleuca to low levels, resulting in a recovery of native species. When herbivory was modeled on pure melaleuca stands, it was more effective in stands with initially larger-sized melaleuca. Although the simulated herbivory did not eliminate melaleuca, it decreased its presence dramatically in all cases, supporting the long-term effectiveness of herbivory in controlling melaleuca invasion.ConclusionsThe results provide three conclusions relevant to management: (1) The introduction of insect herbivory that has been applied to melaleuca appears sufficient to suppress melaleuca over the long term, (2) dominant native species may recover in about 50 years, and (3) regrowth of native species will further suppress melaleuca through competition.

  11. Implementing CUAHSI and SWE observation data models in the long-term monitoring infrastructure TERENO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klump, J. F.; Stender, V.; Schroeder, M.

    2013-12-01

    Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO) is an interdisciplinary and long-term research project spanning an Earth observation network across Germany. It includes four test sites within Germany from the North German lowlands to the Bavarian Alps and is operated by six research centers of the Helmholtz Association. The contribution by the participating research centers is organized as regional observatories. The challenge for TERENO and its observatories is to integrate all aspects of data management, data workflows, data modeling and visualizations into the design of a monitoring infrastructure. TERENO Northeast is one of the sub-observatories of TERENO and is operated by the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ in Potsdam. This observatory investigates geoecological processes in the northeastern lowland of Germany by collecting large amounts of environmentally relevant data. The success of long-term projects like TERENO depends on well-organized data management, data exchange between the partners involved and on the availability of the captured data. Data discovery and dissemination are facilitated not only through data portals of the regional TERENO observatories but also through a common spatial data infrastructure TEODOOR. TEODOOR bundles the data, provided by the different web services of the single observatories, and provides tools for data discovery, visualization and data access. The TERENO Northeast data infrastructure integrates data from more than 200 instruments and makes the data available through standard web services. Data are stored following the CUAHSI observation data model in combination with the 52° North Sensor Observation Service data model. The data model was implemented using the PostgreSQL/PostGIS DBMS. Especially in a long-term project, such as TERENO, care has to be taken in the data model. We chose to adopt the CUAHSI observational data model because it is designed to store observations and descriptive information (metadata

  12. Long-term seasonal variability of convection, and aviation hazard risks over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahraman, Abdullah; Aslan, Zafer

    2017-04-01

    Deep moist convection (DMC), and related hazardous phenomena, such as turbulence, lightning, wind shear, icing, hail, tornadoes, and downbursts, are particularly important in aviation. They are responsible from a big portion of aircraft accidents related to weather. A climatology of DMC in greater European domain is prepared using ICTP SPEEDY model, including its long-range variability through decades, geographical distribution, and seasonal/diurnal behaviour. Results are compared with thunderstorm observations. DMC-related hazardous weather phenomena affecting aviation are also investigated using proper proxies from model output, in order to assess the risks.

  13. Systemic inflammation combined with neonatal cerebellar haemorrhage aggravates long-term structural and functional outcomes in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Sophie; Pai, Alex; Richter, Lindsay; Vafaei, Rod; Potluri, Praneetha; Ellegood, Jacob; Lerch, Jason P; Goldowitz, Daniel

    2017-07-27

    Despite the increased recognition of cerebellar injury in survivors of preterm birth, the neurodevelopmental consequences of isolated cerebellar injury have been largely unexplored and our current understanding of the functional deficits requires further attention in order to translate knowledge to best practices. Preterm infants are exposed to multiple stressors during their postnatal development including perinatal cerebellar haemorrhage (CBH) and postnatal infection, two major risk factors for neurodevelopmental impairments. We developed a translational mouse model of CBH and/or inflammation to measure the short- and long-term outcomes in cerebellar structure and function. Mice exposed to early combined insults of CBH and early inflammatory state (EIS) have a delay in grasping acquisition, neonatal motor deficits and deficient long-term memory. CBH combined with late inflammatory state (LIS) does not induce neonatal motor problems but leads to poor fine motor function and long-term memory deficits at adulthood. Early combined insults result in poor cerebellar growth from postnatal day 15 until adulthood shown by MRI, which are reflected in diminished volumes of cerebellar structures. There are also decreases in volumes of gray matter and hippocampus. Cerebellar microgliosis appears 24h after the combined insults and persists until postnatal day 15 in the cerebellar molecular layer and cerebellar nuclei in association with a disrupted patterning of myelin deposition, a delay of oligodendrocyte maturation and reduced white matter cerebellar volume. Together, these findings reveal poor outcomes in developing brains exposed to combined cerebellar perinatal insults in association with cerebellar hypoplasia, persistence of microgliosis and alterations of cerebellar white matter maturation and growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul-Yong Lee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the long-term, crude oil prices may impact the economic stability and sustainability of many countries, especially those depending on oil imports. This study thus suggests an alternative model for accurately forecasting oil prices while reflecting structural changes in the oil market by using a Bayesian approach. The prior information is derived from the recent and expected structure of the oil market, using a subjective approach, and then updated with available market data. The model includes as independent variables factors affecting oil prices, such as world oil demand and supply, the financial situation, upstream costs, and geopolitical events. To test the model’s forecasting performance, it is compared with other models, including a linear ordinary least squares model and a neural network model. The proposed model outperforms on the forecasting performance test even though the neural network model shows the best results on a goodness-of-fit test. The results show that the crude oil price is estimated to increase to $169.3/Bbl by 2040.

  15. Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

    2017-04-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

  16. Long-term simulations of European air quality using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantzius Hansen, Kaj

    2010-05-01

    Effects of air quality on nature and human health have been on the agenda for several decades. Air quality monitoring sites have been established throughout Europe and several of the sites have been operating for more than two decades. Long term evaluation of air quality from specific monitoring sites or smaller regions has been performed in several studies. For studies of larger regions, models with comprehensive chemistry schemes have been developed and applied to study atmospheric transport, transformation and deposition of various air pollutants. With faster and faster computers, the development over the years has been towards more complex chemistry schemes and higher spatial and temporal resolution of model output. This often limits the studied period to single or a few years. We will present a study of European air quality covering 18 years, simulated with a state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry transport model. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) covers the majority of the Northern Hemisphere with a horizontal grid resolution of 150 km X 150 km. DEHM has 29 vertical layers in terrain-following sigma-coordinates extending up to a height of 100 hPa. Two-way nesting options with a nesting factor of three can be applied with higher resolution over a limited area of the model. At present the model can be run without nests or with one, two or three nests, each with grid resolutions of 50 km X 50 km, 16.7 km X 16.7 km, and 5.6 km X 5.6 km, respectively. The model includes a comprehensive chemistry scheme with more than 100 reactions and 67 atmospheric constituents, of which 4 relate to primary particulates (PM2.5, PM10, TSP and sea salt); other species are SOx, NOx, NHx, VOCs, and secondary inorganic particulates. DEHM is driven by meteorological data from the numerical weather prediction model MM5v3. One long-term simulation was performed with DEHM covering the period from 1989 to 2006. The predicted concentrations were evaluated against measurements

  17. Risk factors for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC predict long-term treatment with docetaxel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Kawahara

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: For patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostatic cancer (mCRPC, docetaxel plus prednisone leads to superior survival and a higher response rate compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone. We analyzed the efficacy of long-term treatment with ≥10 cycles of docetaxel, and validated the risk group classification in predicting overall survival (OS in Japanese patients with mCRPC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty-two patients with mCRPC were administered 55 mg/m(2 docetaxel and 8 mg dexamethasone, every 3 or 4 weeks, simultaneously with hormonal therapy and daily oral dexamethasone. They were divided into two groups, short-term (9 or fewer cycles and long-term (10 or more cycles. Four risk factors including the presence of anemia, bone metastases, significant pain and visceral metastases were utilized for the risk group classification. RESULTS: Fourteen patients (27% had an elevation of PSA in spite of docetaxel treatment, while 23 patients (44% had a decline in PSA level, including 9 patients (17% whose PSA level declined by ≥50%. The median duration of OS after the initiation of this therapy was 11.2 months in the short-term group and 28.5 months in the long-term group. The good risk group showed a significant difference in OS compared with the intermediate and poor risk groups (P<0.001. The median number of cycles of treatment was 14, 4 and 3 for each risk group, respectively (p<0.01. CONCLUSIONS: The present study indicated that ≥10 cycles of this docetaxel therapy can significantly prolong survival in Japanese men with CRPC. This risk group classification for men with mCRPC at the initiation of this chemotherapy is useful.

  18. LONG TERM INVESTMENTS, RISK OR OPPORTUNITY FOR ROMANIAN ECONOMY, CASE STUDY: ROSIA MONTANA GOLD CORPORATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florea Georgiana Rodica

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at describing the influence that foreign direct investments have on a recipient economy, as this study focuses on the changes that foreign direct investments imposed on Romanian economy. In principle, foreign direct investment should enhance one economys results as they pump capital, the vital fluid of any successful enterprise, completing or replacing own capital, as the economy becomes interesting because of its raw material resources, financial facilities or human resource. Anyway, there are some instances that need turning own capital to profit, as, this would benefit more than permission for foreign capital to be turned into advantage. The actual study looks on investments that are to be conducted by Gabriel Resources in Rosia Montana area and tries to evaluate if the business site acts on long term in favor of our national economy.

  19. A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, V. R.

    2011-12-01

    On the premise that fast climate fluctuations up to and including the 11-year solar cycle play a negligible role in long-term climate forecasting, we remove these from the 160-year HADCRUT3 global land-sea temperature record and model the result as the sum of a log-raised-exponential (log(b+exp(t))) and two sine waves of respective periods 56 and 75 years coinciding in phase in 1925. The latter two can be understood equivalently as a 62-year-period "carrier" modulated with a 440-year period that peaked in 1925 and vanished in 1705. This model gives an excellent fit, explaining 98% of the variance (r^2) of long-term climate over the 160 years. We derive the first component as the composition of Arrhenius's 1896 logarithmic dependence of surface temperature on CO2 with Hofmann's 2009 raised-exponential dependence of CO2 on time, but interpret its fit to the data as the net anthropogenic contribution incorporating all greenhouse and aerosol emissions and relevant feedbacks, bearing in mind the rapid growth in both population and technology. The 56-year oscillation matches the largest component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while the 75-year one is near an oscillation often judged to be in the vicinity of 70 years. The expected 1705 cancellation is about two decades earlier than suggested by Gray et al's tree-ring proxy for the AMO during 1567-1990 [Gray GPL 31, L12205]. While there is no consensus on the origin of ocean oscillations, the oscillations in geomagnetic secular variation noted by Nagata and Rimitake in 1963 and Slaucitajs and Winch in 1965, of respective periods 77 years and 61 years, correspond strikingly with our 76-year oscillation and 62-year "carrier." This model has a number of benefits. Simplicity. It is easily explained to a lay audience in response to the frequently voiced concern that the temperature record is poorly correlated with the CO2 record alone. It shows that the transition from natural to anthropogenic influences on long-term

  20. Long-term Prostate-specific Antigen Velocity in Improved Classification of Prostate Cancer Risk and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsted, David Dynnes; Bojesen, Stig E; Kamstrup, Pia R

    2013-01-01

    already including baseline PSA values and age yielded continuous NRIs of 98-99% and 56-106%, respectively. Used on a nationwide scale (eg, for men aged 60-64 yr), long-term PSAV >0.35 versus ≤0.35 ng/ml per year appropriately reclassified 128 of 10 000 men with PCa and 8095 of 10 000 men with no PCa......BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether adding long-term prostate-specific antigen velocity (PSAV) to baseline PSA values improves classification of prostate cancer (PCa) risk and mortality in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether long-term PSAV improves classification of PCa risk...... and mortality in the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We studied 503 men aged 30-80 yr, with and without PCa, who had repeated PSA measurements over 20 yr and up to 28 yr before PCa diagnosis. These were selected from among 7455 men in the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective...

  1. Long-Term Risk for Noncervical Anogenital Cancer in Women with Previously Diagnosed High-Grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sand, Freja Lærke; Munk, Christian; Jensen, Signe Marie

    2016-01-01

    Background: High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is essential for developing high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2 and CIN3) and has also been associated with noncervical anogenital cancers. However, limited knowledge exists about the long-term risk for anal, vulvar, and vaginal...... risks for subsequent anal, vulvar, and vaginal cancer than women with no such history. The relative risks were higher for CIN3 than CIN2.Noexcess risk was found for rectal cancer. Analyses in which time since first CIN3 was taken into account showed increased relative risks for anal [HR = 4.8; 95......% confidence interval (CI), 3.3-7.0], vulvar (HR = 3.2; 95% CI, 2.0-5.3), and vaginal (HR = 5.5; 95% CI, 2.4-12.3) cancers ≥25 years after CIN3 diagnosis. Conclusion: Women with a history of CIN2 or CIN3 have a long-term increased relative risk for developing anal, vulvar, and vaginal cancer due to an impaired...

  2. Analyzing Left-truncated and Right-censored Data under Cox Models with Long-term Survivors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fei-peng ZHANG; YONG ZHOU

    2013-01-01

    We analyze left-truncated and right-censored data using Cox proportional hazard models with long-term survivors.The estimators of covariate coefficients and the long-term survivor proportion are obtained by the partial likelihood method,and their asymptotic properties are also established.Simulation studies demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimators,and an application to a real dataset is provided.

  3. Nearly frictionless faulting by unclamping in long-term interaction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.

    2002-01-01

    In defiance of direct rock-friction observations, some transform faults appear to slide with little resistance. In this paper finite element models are used to show how strain energy is minimized by interacting faults that can cause long-term reduction in fault-normal stresses (unclamping). A model fault contained within a sheared elastic medium concentrates stress at its end points with increasing slip. If accommodating structures free up the ends, then the fault responds by rotating, lengthening, and unclamping. This concept is illustrated by a comparison between simple strike-slip faulting and a mid-ocean-ridge model with the same total transform length; calculations show that the more complex system unclapms the transforms and operates at lower energy. In another example, the overlapping San Andreas fault system in the San Francisco Bay region is modeled; this system is complicated by junctions and stepovers. A finite element model indicates that the normal stress along parts of the faults could be reduced to hydrostatic levels after ???60-100 k.y. of system-wide slip. If this process occurs in the earth, then parts of major transform fault zones could appear nearly frictionless.

  4. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M.H. (Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics); Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. (Argonne National Lab., IL (United States))

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  5. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M.H. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  6. Modeling the complex and long term swelling behavior of argillaceous rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Doostmohammadi R.; Mutschler Th.; Osan C.

    2011-01-01

    The swelling behavior of argillaceous rocks is a complex phenomenon and has been determined using a lot of indexes in the literature.Determining the required modeling indexes that need to be performed requires expensive tests and extensive time in different laboratories.In some of the cases,it is too difficult to find a relation between the effective variables and swelling potential.This paper suggests a method for modeling the time dependent swelling pressure of argillaceous rocks.The trend of short term swelling potential during the first 3 days of the swelling pressure testing is used for modeling the long term swelling pressure of mudstone that is recorded during months.The artificial neural network (ANN) as a power tool is used for modeling this nonlinear and complex behavior.This method enables predicting the swelling potential of argillaceous rocks when the required indexes and also correlation between them is unattainable.This method facilitates the model of all studied samples under a unique formulation.

  7. A Computational Model for the AMPA Receptor Phosphorylation Master Switch Regulating Cerebellar Long-Term Depression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew R Gallimore

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The expression of long-term depression (LTD in cerebellar Purkinje cells results from the internalisation of α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-propionic acid receptors (AMPARs from the postsynaptic membrane. This process is regulated by a complex signalling pathway involving sustained protein kinase C (PKC activation, inhibition of serine/threonine phosphatase, and an active protein tyrosine phosphatase, PTPMEG. In addition, two AMPAR-interacting proteins-glutamate receptor-interacting protein (GRIP and protein interacting with C kinase 1 (PICK1-regulate the availability of AMPARs for trafficking between the postsynaptic membrane and the endosome. Here we present a new computational model of these overlapping signalling pathways. The model reveals how PTPMEG cooperates with PKC to drive LTD expression by facilitating the effect of PKC on the dissociation of AMPARs from GRIP and thus their availability for trafficking. Model simulations show that LTD expression is increased by serine/threonine phosphatase inhibition, and negatively regulated by Src-family tyrosine kinase activity, which restricts the dissociation of AMPARs from GRIP under basal conditions. We use the model to expose the dynamic balance between AMPAR internalisation and reinsertion, and the phosphorylation switch responsible for the perturbation of this balance and for the rapid plasticity initiation and regulation. Our model advances the understanding of PF-PC LTD regulation and induction, and provides a validated extensible platform for more detailed studies of this fundamental synaptic process.

  8. Long-Term Effects, Pathophysiological Mechanisms, and Risk Factors of Chemotherapy-Induced Peripheral Neuropathies: A Comprehensive Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerckhove, Nicolas; Collin, Aurore; Condé, Sakahlé; Chaleteix, Carine; Pezet, Denis; Balayssac, David

    2017-01-01

    Neurotoxic anticancer drugs, such as platinum-based anticancer drugs, taxanes, vinca alkaloids, and proteasome/angiogenesis inhibitors are responsible for chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN). The health consequences of CIPN remain worrying as it is associated with several comorbidities and affects a specific population of patients already impacted by cancer, a strong driver for declines in older adults. The purpose of this review is to present a comprehensive overview of the long-term effects of CIPN in cancer patients and survivors. Pathophysiological mechanisms and risk factors are also presented. Neurotoxic mechanisms leading to CIPNs are not yet fully understood but involve neuronopathy and/or axonopathy, mainly associated with DNA damage, oxidative stress, mitochondria toxicity, and ion channel remodeling in the neurons of the peripheral nervous system. Classical symptoms of CIPNs are peripheral neuropathy with a “stocking and glove” distribution characterized by sensory loss, paresthesia, dysesthesia and numbness, sometimes associated with neuropathic pain in the most serious cases. Several risk factors can promote CIPN as a function of the anticancer drug considered, such as cumulative dose, treatment duration, history of neuropathy, combination of therapies and genetic polymorphisms. CIPNs are frequent in cancer patients with an overall incidence of approximately 38% (possibly up to 90% of patients treated with oxaliplatin). Finally, the long-term reversibility of these CIPNs remain questionable, notably in the case of platinum-based anticancer drugs and taxanes, for which CIPN may last several years after the end of anticancer chemotherapies. These long-term effects are associated with comorbidities such as depression, insomnia, falls and decreases of health-related quality of life in cancer patients and survivors. However, it is noteworthy that these long-term effects remain poorly studied, and only limited data are available such as in

  9. Long-Term Effects of Induced Hypothermia on Local and Systemic Inflammation - Results from a Porcine Long-Term Trauma Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horst, K.; Eschbach, D.; Pfeifer, R.; Relja, B.; Sassen, M.; Steinfeldt, T.; Wulf, H.; Vogt, N.; Frink, M.; Ruchholtz, S.; Pape, H. C.; Hildebrand, F.

    2016-01-01

    Background Hypothermia has been discussed as playing a role in improving the early phase of systemic inflammation. However, information on the impact of hypothermia on the local inflammatory response is sparse. We therefore investigated the kinetics of local and systemic inflammation in the late posttraumatic phase after induction of hypothermia in an established porcine long-term model of combined trauma. Materials & Methods Male pigs (35 ± 5kg) were mechanically ventilated and monitored over the study period of 48 h. Combined trauma included tibia fracture, lung contusion, liver laceration and pressure-controlled hemorrhagic shock (MAP < 30 ± 5 mmHg for 90 min). After resuscitation, hypothermia (33°C) was induced for a period of 12 h (HT-T group) with subsequent re-warming over a period of 10 h. The NT-T group was kept normothermic. Systemic and local (fracture hematoma) cytokine levels (IL-6, -8, -10) and alarmins (HMGB1, HSP70) were measured via ELISA. Results Severe signs of shock as well as systemic and local increases of pro-inflammatory mediators were observed in both trauma groups. In general the local increase of pro- and anti-inflammatory mediator levels was significantly higher and prolonged compared to systemic concentrations. Induction of hypothermia resulted in a significantly prolonged elevation of both systemic and local HMGB1 levels at 48 h compared to the NT-T group. Correspondingly, local IL-6 levels demonstrated a significantly prolonged increase in the HT-T group at 48 h. Conclusion A prolonged inflammatory response might reduce the well-described protective effects on organ and immune function observed in the early phase after hypothermia induction. Furthermore, local immune response also seems to be affected. Future studies should aim to investigate the use of therapeutic hypothermia at different degrees and duration of application. PMID:27144532

  10. Long-Term Effects of Induced Hypothermia on Local and Systemic Inflammation - Results from a Porcine Long-Term Trauma Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Horst

    Full Text Available Hypothermia has been discussed as playing a role in improving the early phase of systemic inflammation. However, information on the impact of hypothermia on the local inflammatory response is sparse. We therefore investigated the kinetics of local and systemic inflammation in the late posttraumatic phase after induction of hypothermia in an established porcine long-term model of combined trauma.Male pigs (35 ± 5kg were mechanically ventilated and monitored over the study period of 48 h. Combined trauma included tibia fracture, lung contusion, liver laceration and pressure-controlled hemorrhagic shock (MAP < 30 ± 5 mmHg for 90 min. After resuscitation, hypothermia (33°C was induced for a period of 12 h (HT-T group with subsequent re-warming over a period of 10 h. The NT-T group was kept normothermic. Systemic and local (fracture hematoma cytokine levels (IL-6, -8, -10 and alarmins (HMGB1, HSP70 were measured via ELISA.Severe signs of shock as well as systemic and local increases of pro-inflammatory mediators were observed in both trauma groups. In general the local increase of pro- and anti-inflammatory mediator levels was significantly higher and prolonged compared to systemic concentrations. Induction of hypothermia resulted in a significantly prolonged elevation of both systemic and local HMGB1 levels at 48 h compared to the NT-T group. Correspondingly, local IL-6 levels demonstrated a significantly prolonged increase in the HT-T group at 48 h.A prolonged inflammatory response might reduce the well-described protective effects on organ and immune function observed in the early phase after hypothermia induction. Furthermore, local immune response also seems to be affected. Future studies should aim to investigate the use of therapeutic hypothermia at different degrees and duration of application.

  11. Risks of nuclear waste disposal in space. III - Long-term orbital evolution of small particle distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, A. L.; Wells, W. C.

    1980-01-01

    A study of long term risks is presented that treats an additional pathway that could result in earth reentry, namely, small radioactive particles released in solar orbit due to payload fragmentation by accidental explosion or meteoroid impact. A characterization of such an event and of the initial mass size distribution of particles is given for two extremes of waste form strength. Attention is given to numerical results showing the mass-time distribution of material and the fraction of initial mass intercepted by earth. It is concluded that it appears that program planners need not be to concerned about the risks of this particular failure mechanism and return pathway.

  12. Long-term trend of thyroid cancer risk among Japanese atomic-bomb survivors: 60 years after exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furukawa, Kyoji; Preston, Dale; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Yonehara, Shuji; Ito, Masahiro; Tokuoka, Shoji; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Soda, Midori; Ozasa, Kotaro; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    2013-03-01

    Thyroid cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation in childhood and adolescence is a topic of public concern. To characterize the long-term temporal trend and age-at-exposure variation in the radiation-induced risk of thyroid cancer, we analyzed thyroid cancer incidence data for the period from 1958 through 2005 among 105,401 members of the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. During the follow-up period, 371 thyroid cancer cases (excluding those with microcarcinoma with a diameter 50 years after exposure. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  13. Workplace social capital and risk of long-term sickness absence. Are associations modified by occupational grade?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rugulies, Reiner; Hasle, Peter; Hyld Pejtersen, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Workplace social capital (WSC) is an emerging topic among both work environment professionals and researchers. We examined (i) whether high WSC protected against risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in a random sample of the Danish workforce during a 1-year follow-up and (ii...... variables, prevalent health problems and health behaviours (HR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.74–0.99). The HR was attenuated and lost statistical significance after further adjustment for occupational grade (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.78–1.04). When stratified by occupational grade, high WSC predicted a decreased risk...

  14. Propensity-Weighted Comparison of Long-Term Risk of Urinary Adverse Events in Elderly Women Treated For Cervical Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, Sean P., E-mail: selliott@umn.edu [Department of Urology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Fan, Yunhua; Jarosek, Stephanie [Department of Urology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Chu, Haitao [Department of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Downs, Levi [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Dusenbery, Kathryn [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Geller, Melissa A. [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Virnig, Beth A. [Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: Cervical cancer treatment is associated with a risk of urinary adverse events (UAEs) such as ureteral stricture and vesicovaginal fistula. We sought to measure the long-term UAE risk after surgery and radiation therapy (RT), with confounding controlled through propensity-weighted models. Methods and Materials: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, we identified women ≥66 years old with nonmetastatic cervical cancer treated with simple surgery (SS), radical hysterectomy (RH), external beam RT plus brachytherapy (EBRT+BT), or RT+surgery. We matched them to noncancer controls 1:3. Differences in demographic and cancer characteristics were balanced by propensity weighting. Grade 3 to 4 UAEs were identified by diagnosis codes plus treatment codes. Cumulative incidence was measured using Kaplan-Meier methods. The hazard associated with different cancer treatments was compared using Cox models. Results: UAEs occurred in 272 of 1808 cases (17%) and 222 of 5424 (4%) controls; most (62%) were ureteral strictures. The raw cumulative incidence of UAEs was highest in advanced cancers. UAEs occurred in 31% of patients after EBRT+BT, 25% of patients after RT+surgery, and 15% of patients after RH; however, after propensity weighting, the incidence was similar. In adjusted Cox models (reference = controls), the UAE risk was highest after RT+surgery (hazard ratio [HR], 5.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.32-11.07), followed by EBRT+BT (HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.45-7.65), RH (HR, 3.65; 95% CI, 1.41-9.46) and SS (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.32-3.01). The higher risk after RT+surgery versus EBRT+BT was statistically significant, whereas, EBRT+BT and RH were not significantly different from each other. Conclusions: UAEs are common after cervical cancer treatment, particularly in patients with advanced cancers. UAEs are more common after RT, but these women tend to have the advanced cancers. After propensity weighting, the risk after RT was similar

  15. Modeling long-term changes of the Black Sea ecosystem characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorofeyev, V. L.; Oguz, T.; Sukhikh, L. I.; Knysh, V. V.; Kubryakov, A. I.; Korotaev, G. K.

    2012-05-01

    A three dimensional coupled physical-biological model is provided for the Black Sea to investigate its long-term changes under the synergistic impacts of eutrophication, climatic changes and population outbreak of the gelatinous invader Mnemiopsis leidyi. The model circulation field is simulated using the high frequency ERA40 atmospheric forcing as well as assimilation of the available hydrographic and altimeter sea level anomaly data for the 30 yr period of 1971-2001. The circulation dynamics are shown to resolve well the different temporal and spatial scales from mesoscale to sub-basin scale and from seasonal peaks to decadal scale trend-like changes. The biogeochemical model includes the main vertical biological and chemical interactions and processes up to the anoxic interface zone. Its food web structure is represented by two phytoplankton and zooplankton size groups, bacterioplankton, gelatinous carnivores Mnemiopsis and Aurelia, opportunistic species Noctiluca scientillans. The nitrogen cycling is accommodated by the particulate and dissolved organic nitrogen compartments and the dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the forms of ammonium, nitrite and nitrate. The ecosystem model is able to simulate successfully main observed features and trends of the intense eutrophication phase (from the early 1970s to the early 1990s), but points to its modification to simulate better the ecosystem conditions of the post-eutrophication phase.

  16. Long-Term Diabetes Mellitus Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Shanshan; Wang, Baosheng; Zhang, Xin; Hao, Liliang; Hu, Xianliang; Li, Zhongxiang; Sun, Shaolong

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have shown a bidirectional relationship between diabetes and pancreatic cancer (PC). In particular, new-onset diabetes might be induced by PC, and people with long-term diabetes might be at increased risk for the development of PC. The purpose of our study was to examine whether long-term diabetes represented an independent risk factor for PC development. A literature search was performed by searching electronic databases for studies published before July 1, 2014, and relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Data pertaining to diabetes were recorded at both individual and study levels, with RRs calculated separately to analyze the relationship between the duration of diabetes and the development of PC. Forty-four studies were included in this meta-analysis, including 18 studies with a case-control design, 5 with a nested case-control design and 21 with a cohort design. The overall summary estimate for the relationship between the population with a duration of diabetes ≥2 years and PC was 1.64 (1.52-1.78). The pooled RR (95% CI) of PC for the population with a duration of diabetes ≥5 years was 1.58 (1.42-1.75). For the population with a duration of diabetes ≥10 years, the RR (95% CI) of PC was 1.50 (1.28-1.75). Our study suggests that long-term diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of PC. However, the level of risk is negatively correlated with increasing diabetes mellitus duration.

  17. The Future Demand for Long-term Carers in Germany: Model Calculations for the Federal Länder until 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Pohl

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The increase in the birth rate shortfall, at the same time as an increase in life expectancy, will lead to more elderly people living in Germany in future, in both relative and absolute terms. The possible development in the demand for professional long-term carers until 2020 for the individual Federal Länder is illustrated in this essay using model calculations. Because of the differences in demographic change between the Federal Länder, the labour market for long-term care will develop heterogeneously in the federal territory as a whole. The increase in the number of persons in need of long-term care from its current level of 2.25 million to a forecast level of 2.9 million by 2020 will mean that professional long-term care in particular will continue to become more significant in Germany as a whole. The demand for long-term carers (in full-time equivalent posts could increase from its current level of 561,000 to up to 900,000 by 2020. The actual development on the professional labour market will however be heavily dependent on the commitment of care-giving relatives. Additionally, possible productivity advances in the provision of long-term care services will play a role, as can be shown in various scenarios of the model calculations.

  18. A meta-analysis and systematic review of the risks associated with childhood attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder on long-term outcome of arrests, convictions, and incarcerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr-Jensen, Christina; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph

    2016-08-01

    The primary aim of this study was to systematically review and estimate the risk of arrests, convictions, and incarcerations associated with childhood Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) in long-term outcome studies. In addition, all included studies were qualitatively and systematically reviewed for predictors of long-term crimes. The databases Pubmed, PsycINFO and Embase were searched for all controlled studies that included children and adolescents (age 4-15) with ADHD who had been followed longitudinally and reported the frequency of arrests, convictions or incarcerations based on data from official sources. Using random-effects models, the relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) was estimated. A total of 15,442 individuals with childhood ADHD from nine unique samples were included. Childhood ADHD was significantly associated with adolescent and adulthood arrests (RR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.3-3.5), convictions (RR: 3.3, 95% CI: 2.1-5.2) and incarcerations (RR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9-4.3). Individuals with ADHD had a younger age at onset of antisocial involvement and an increased risk of criminal recidivism. The most frequently committed criminal offenses were theft, assault, drug- and weapon-related crimes. Early antisocial behavior problems, childhood maltreatment, sex, and IQ were identified as potentially relevant predictors for antisocial outcomes. The findings support a substantial long-term risk associated with ADHD for later antisocial involvement. Early intensive and specifically targeted multimodal intervention including psychosocial, and pharmacological treatment is warranted to alter these negative long-term developmental trajectories.

  19. A surgical rat model of sleeve gastrectomy with staple technique: long-term weight loss results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrikakos, Panagiotis; Toutouzas, Konstantinos G; Perrea, Despoina; Menenakos, Evangelos; Pantopoulou, Alkistis; Thomopoulos, Theodore; Papadopoulos, Stefanos; Bramis, John I

    2009-11-01

    Sleeve gastrectomy (SG) is one of the surgical procedures applied for treating morbid obesity consisting of removing the gastric fundus and transforming the stomach into a narrow gastric tube. The aim of this experimental study is to create a functional model of SG and to present the long-term weight loss results. Twenty adult Wistar rats were fed with high fat diet for 12 weeks before being divided randomly in two groups of ten rats each. One group underwent SG performed with the use of staples, and the other group underwent a sham operation (control group). The animals' weight was evaluated weekly for 15 weeks after the operation. All animals survived throughout the experiment. After the operation both groups started to lose weight with maximum weight loss on the seventh postoperative day (POD) for the sham-operated group and on the 15th POD for the SG group. Thereafter, both groups started to regain weight but with different rates. By the fourth postoperative week (POW), the average weight of the sham group did not differ statistically significantly compared to the preoperative weight, while after the eighth POW, rats' average weight was statistically significantly increased compared to the preoperative value. On the other hand, average weight of the SG group was lower postoperatively until the end of the study compared to the preoperative average weight. We have created a surgical rat model of experimental SG model, enabling the further study of biochemical and hormonal parameters.

  20. A Model of Substitution Trajectories in Sequence Space and Long-Term Protein Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usmanova, Dinara R.; Ferretti, Luca; Povolotskaya, Inna S.; Vlasov, Peter K.; Kondrashov, Fyodor A.

    2015-01-01

    The nature of factors governing the tempo and mode of protein evolution is a fundamental issue in evolutionary biology. Specifically, whether or not interactions between different sites, or epistasis, are important in directing the course of evolution became one of the central questions. Several recent reports have scrutinized patterns of long-term protein evolution claiming them to be compatible only with an epistatic fitness landscape. However, these claims have not yet been substantiated with a formal model of protein evolution. Here, we formulate a simple covarion-like model of protein evolution focusing on the rate at which the fitness impact of amino acids at a site changes with time. We then apply the model to the data on convergent and divergent protein evolution to test whether or not the incorporation of epistatic interactions is necessary to explain the data. We find that convergent evolution cannot be explained without the incorporation of epistasis and the rate at which an amino acid state switches from being acceptable at a site to being deleterious is faster than the rate of amino acid substitution. Specifically, for proteins that have persisted in modern prokaryotic organisms since the last universal common ancestor for one amino acid substitution approximately ten amino acid states switch from being accessible to being deleterious, or vice versa. Thus, molecular evolution can only be perceived in the context of rapid turnover of which amino acids are available for evolution. PMID:25415964

  1. A modeling framework for optimal long-term care insurance purchase decisions in retirement planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Aparna; Li, Lepeng

    2004-05-01

    The level of need and costs of obtaining long-term care (LTC) during retired life require that planning for it is an integral part of retirement planning. In this paper, we divide retirement planning into two phases, pre-retirement and post-retirement. On the basis of four interrelated models for health evolution, wealth evolution, LTC insurance premium and coverage, and LTC cost structure, a framework for optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions in the pre-retirement phase is developed. Optimal decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums and coverage. Two-way branching models are used to model stochastic health events and asset returns. The resulting optimization problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem. We compare the optimal decision under two insurance purchase scenarios: one assumes that insurance is purchased for good and other assumes it may be purchased, relinquished and re-purchased. Sensitivity analysis is performed for the retirement age.

  2. Congestion management in power systems. Long-term modeling framework and large-scale application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertsch, Joachim; Hagspiel, Simeon; Just, Lisa

    2015-06-15

    In liberalized power systems, generation and transmission services are unbundled, but remain tightly interlinked. Congestion management in the transmission network is of crucial importance for the efficiency of these inter-linkages. Different regulatory designs have been suggested, analyzed and followed, such as uniform zonal pricing with redispatch or nodal pricing. However, the literature has either focused on the short-term efficiency of congestion management or specific issues of timing investments. In contrast, this paper presents a generalized and flexible economic modeling framework based on a decomposed inter-temporal equilibrium model including generation, transmission, as well as their inter-linkages. Short and long-term effects of different congestion management designs can hence be analyzed. Specifically, we are able to identify and isolate implicit frictions and sources of inefficiencies in the different regulatory designs, and to provide a comparative analysis including a benchmark against a first-best welfare-optimal result. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework, we calibrate and numerically solve our model for a detailed representation of the Central Western European (CWE) region, consisting of 70 nodes and 174 power lines. Analyzing six different congestion management designs until 2030, we show that compared to the first-best benchmark, i.e., nodal pricing, inefficiencies of up to 4.6% arise. Inefficiencies are mainly driven by the approach of determining cross-border capacities as well as the coordination of transmission system operators' activities.

  3. Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monnet Antoine

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on “geological environments”. It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance, and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a repartition of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures.

  4. Modeling Long-Term Trends in Russet Burbank Potato Growth and Development in Wisconsin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Curwen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Improving understanding and prediction of the potato (Solanum tuberosum tuber size over the growing season is important due to its effects on crop price and marketing. Several models have been proposed to describe potato growth and development, but are based on short-term data and have little use for predicting yields or in-season management decisions. This analysis uses long-term data collected from 1979 to 1993 in central Wisconsin to describe growth and development of the Russet Burbank potato variety. This paper describes average number of potato tubers per plant and tuber length as influenced by thermal time and stem number per plant over 14 years. For each plant variable, data analysis uses multivariate techniques to fit a hierarchical logistic model with parameters potentially depending on stem number per plant. Analysis finds that the average number of potato tubers and average tuber length were affected by thermal time and stem number per plant. Estimated models are biologically relevant, provide an understanding of seasonal thermal variability and stem number per plant effects on average tuber set and growth, and can be used to describe yearly variation in average potato growth and development. Increased understanding of potato growth in response to thermal time and stem number per plant can improve management recommendations and predictions of crop economic value.

  5. Modeling long-term, large-scale sediment storage using a simple sediment budget approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naipal, Victoria; Reick, Christian; Van Oost, Kristof; Hoffmann, Thomas; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-05-01

    Currently, the anthropogenic perturbation of the biogeochemical cycles remains unquantified due to the poor representation of lateral fluxes of carbon and nutrients in Earth system models (ESMs). This lateral transport of carbon and nutrients between terrestrial ecosystems is strongly affected by accelerated soil erosion rates. However, the quantification of global soil erosion by rainfall and runoff, and the resulting redistribution is missing. This study aims at developing new tools and methods to estimate global soil erosion and redistribution by presenting and evaluating a new large-scale coarse-resolution sediment budget model that is compatible with ESMs. This model can simulate spatial patterns and long-term trends of soil redistribution in floodplains and on hillslopes, resulting from external forces such as climate and land use change. We applied the model to the Rhine catchment using climate and land cover data from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the last millennium (here AD 850-2005). Validation is done using observed Holocene sediment storage data and observed scaling between sediment storage and catchment area. We find that the model reproduces the spatial distribution of floodplain sediment storage and the scaling behavior for floodplains and hillslopes as found in observations. After analyzing the dependence of the scaling behavior on the main parameters of the model, we argue that the scaling is an emergent feature of the model and mainly dependent on the underlying topography. Furthermore, we find that land use change is the main contributor to the change in sediment storage in the Rhine catchment during the last millennium. Land use change also explains most of the temporal variability in sediment storage in floodplains and on hillslopes.

  6. Risk of hip, subtrochanteric, and femoral shaft fractures among mid and long term users of alendronate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Eiken, Pia; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel;

    2016-01-01

    and women aged 50-94 at the start of treatment, who had not previously taken alendronate, 1996-2007. INTERVENTIONS: Treatment with alendronate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident fracture of the subtrochanteric femur or femoral shaft (ST/FS) or the hip. Non-fracture controls from the cohort were matched...... to fracture cases by sex, year of birth, and year of initiation of alendronate treatment. Conditional logistic regression models were fitted to calculate odds ratios with and without adjustment for comorbidity and comedications. Sensitivity analyses investigated subsequent treatment with other drugs...... for osteoporosis. RESULTS: 1428 participants sustained a ST/FS (incidence rate 3.4/1000 person years, 95% confidence interval 3.2 to 3.6), and 6784 sustained a hip fracture (16.2/1000 person years, 15.8 to 16.6). The risk of ST/FS was lower with high adherence to treatment with alendronate (medication possession...

  7. Long-term fate of depleted uranium at Aberdeen and Yuma Proving Grounds: Human health and ecological risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Beckman, R.J.; Myers, O.B. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Kennedy, P.L.; Clements, W.; Bestgen, H.T. [Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Fishery and Wildlife Biology

    1996-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate and long-term consequences of depleted uranium (DU) in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) and Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) for the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) of the US Army. Specifically, we examined the potential for adverse radiological and toxicological effects to humans and ecosystems caused by exposure to DU at both installations. We developed contaminant transport models of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems at APG and terrestrial ecosystems at YPG to assess potential adverse effects from DU exposure. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the initial models showed the portions of the models that most influenced predicted DU concentrations, and the results of the sensitivity analyses were fundamental tools in designing field sampling campaigns at both installations. Results of uranium (U) isotope analyses of field samples provided data to evaluate the source of U in the environment and the toxicological and radiological doses to different ecosystem components and to humans. Probabilistic doses were estimated from the field data, and DU was identified in several components of the food chain at APG and YPG. Dose estimates from APG data indicated that U or DU uptake was insufficient to cause adverse toxicological or radiological effects. Dose estimates from YPG data indicated that U or DU uptake is insufficient to cause radiological effects in ecosystem components or in humans, but toxicological effects in small mammals (e.g., kangaroo rats and pocket mice) may occur from U or DU ingestion. The results of this study were used to modify environmental radiation monitoring plans at APG and YPG to ensure collection of adequate data for ongoing ecological and human health risk assessments.

  8. Childhood obesity: the impact on long-term risk of metabolic and CVD is not necessarily inevitable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullen, Sarah

    2014-08-01

    The worldwide prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult population is estimated to be 35%. These trends are reflected in childhood obesity prevalence, and the potential impact of early-onset obesity is of great concern. The aim of this review was to investigate the long-term implications of childhood obesity for metabolic and cardiovascular health, focusing on the independent contribution of childhood obesity to adult disease risk, as distinct from associations mediated by tracking of obesity across the lifespan. The data systematically reviewed provide little evidence to suggest that childhood overweight and obesity are independent risk factors for metabolic and cardiovascular risk during adulthood. Instead, the data demonstrate that the relationships observed are dependent on tracking of BMI between childhood and adulthood, alongside persistence of dietary patterns and physical activity. Adjustment for adult BMI uncovers unexpected negative associations between childhood BMI and adult disease, suggesting a protective effect of childhood obesity at any given level of adult BMI. Further work is required to explain these findings, both in terms of pathways and statistical artefacts. To conclude, it must be stressed that it is not suggested that childhood obesity is without negative consequence. Childhood obesity is clearly associated with a range of adverse physical and psychological outcomes. However, the data are important in supporting a positive message that the long-term consequences of childhood obesity are avoidable; and that there remains opportunity for intervention across the lifespan. This nuance in understanding long-term risk is important when considering the effectiveness of interventions at different stages of the lifespan.

  9. On the simple random-walk models of ion-channel gate dynamics reflecting long-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wawrzkiewicz, Agata; Pawelek, Krzysztof; Borys, Przemyslaw; Dworakowska, Beata; Grzywna, Zbigniew J

    2012-06-01

    Several approaches to ion-channel gating modelling have been proposed. Although many models describe the dwell-time distributions correctly, they are incapable of predicting and explaining the long-term correlations between the lengths of adjacent openings and closings of a channel. In this paper we propose two simple random-walk models of the gating dynamics of voltage and Ca(2+)-activated potassium channels which qualitatively reproduce the dwell-time distributions, and describe the experimentally observed long-term memory quite well. Biological interpretation of both models is presented. In particular, the origin of the correlations is associated with fluctuations of channel mass density. The long-term memory effect, as measured by Hurst R/S analysis of experimental single-channel patch-clamp recordings, is close to the behaviour predicted by our models. The flexibility of the models enables their use as templates for other types of ion channel.

  10. Investigation of nonlinear models to describe long-term egg production in Japanese quail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narinc, Dogan; Karaman, Emre; Aksoy, Tulin; Firat, Mehmet Ziya

    2013-06-01

    In this study, long-term egg production was monitored in a Japanese quail flock, which had not undergone any genetic improvement, for 52 wk as of the age of sexual maturity. The study aimed to detect some traits with respect to egg production, to determine the cumulative hen-housed egg numbers, and to compare goodness of fit of different nonlinear models for the percentage of hen-day egg production. The mean age at first egg was 38.9 d and the age at 50% egg production was 45.3 d. The quail reached peak production at 15 wk of age (wk 9 of egg production period) when the percentage of hen-day egg production was found to be 94%. The cumulative hen-housed egg number for 52 wk as of the age of sexual maturity was 253.08. The monomolecular function, a nonsigmoid model, was used in the nonlinear regression analysis of the cumulative egg numbers. Parameters a, b, and c of the monomolecular model were estimated to be 461.70, 473.31, and 0.065, respectively. Gamma, McNally, Adams-Bell, and modified compartmental models, widely used in hens previously, were used in the nonlinear regression analysis of the percentages of hen-day egg production. The goodness of fit for these models was compared using the values of pseudo-R², Akaike's information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion. It was determined that all the models are adequate but that the Adams-Bell model displayed a slightly better fit for the percentage of hen-day egg production in Japanese quail than others.

  11. Visualizing tropoelastin in a long-term human elastic fibre cell culture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halm, M; Schenke-Layland, K; Jaspers, S; Wenck, H; Fischer, F

    2016-02-04

    Elastin is an essential protein found in a variety of tissues where resilience and flexibility are needed, such as the skin and the heart. When aiming to engineer suitable implants, elastic fibres are needed to allow adequate tissue renewal. However, the visualization of human elastogenesis remains in the dark. To date, the visualization of human tropoelastin (TE) production in a human cell context and its fibre assembly under live cell conditions has not been achieved. Here, we present a long-term cell culture model of human dermal fibroblasts expressing fluorescence-labelled human TE. We employed a lentiviral system to stably overexpress Citrine-labelled TE to build a fluorescent fibre network. Using immunofluorescence, we confirmed the functionality of the Citrine-tagged TE. Furthermore, we visualized the fibre assembly over the course of several days using confocal microscopy. Applying super resolution microscopy, we were able to investigate the inner structure of the elastin-fibrillin-1 fibre network. Future investigations will allow the tracking of TE produced under various conditions. In tissue engineering applications the fluorescent fibre network can be visualized under various conditions or it serves as a tool for investigating fibre degradation processes in disease-in-a-dish-models.

  12. Visualizing tropoelastin in a long-term human elastic fibre cell culture model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halm, M.; Schenke-Layland, K.; Jaspers, S.; Wenck, H.; Fischer, F.

    2016-01-01

    Elastin is an essential protein found in a variety of tissues where resilience and flexibility are needed, such as the skin and the heart. When aiming to engineer suitable implants, elastic fibres are needed to allow adequate tissue renewal. However, the visualization of human elastogenesis remains in the dark. To date, the visualization of human tropoelastin (TE) production in a human cell context and its fibre assembly under live cell conditions has not been achieved. Here, we present a long-term cell culture model of human dermal fibroblasts expressing fluorescence-labelled human TE. We employed a lentiviral system to stably overexpress Citrine-labelled TE to build a fluorescent fibre network. Using immunofluorescence, we confirmed the functionality of the Citrine-tagged TE. Furthermore, we visualized the fibre assembly over the course of several days using confocal microscopy. Applying super resolution microscopy, we were able to investigate the inner structure of the elastin–fibrillin-1 fibre network. Future investigations will allow the tracking of TE produced under various conditions. In tissue engineering applications the fluorescent fibre network can be visualized under various conditions or it serves as a tool for investigating fibre degradation processes in disease-in-a-dish-models. PMID:26842906

  13. The value of long-term monitoring in the development of ground-water-flow models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinstein, Daniel T.; Hart, David J.; Krohelski, James T.

    2004-01-01

    As environmental issues have come to the forefront of public concern, so has the awareness of the importance of ground water in the overall water cycle and as a source of the Nation’s drinking water. Heightened interest has spawned a host of scientific enterprises (Taylor and Alley, 2001). Some activities are directed toward collection of water-level data and related information to monitor the physical and chemical state of the resource. Other activities are directed at interpretive studies undertaken, for example, to optimize the location of new water-supply wells or to protect rivers and lakes fed by ground water. An important type of interpretive study is the computer ground-water-flow model that inte- grates field data in a mathematical framework. Long-term, systematic collection of hydro- logic data is crucial to the construction and testing of ground-water models so that they can reproduce the evolution of flow systems and forecast future conditions. 

  14. UV variability in Moscow according to long-term UV measurements and reconstruction model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Y. Chubarova

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term measurements of erythemally weighted UV irradiance (Qer have been analyzed for the 1999–2006 period as well as UV variability according to reconstruction model since 1968. The estimates of different atmospheric parameters effects, including NO2 content, on Qer have been obtained on seasonal and interannual scales. It has been shown that NO2 content in conditions of large megalopolis provides average Qer decrease of about 1.5–2%. The seasonal variations of the observed UV indices are discussed from the point of view of the impact on health. Using the reconstruction model we showed a distinct growth in Qer since 1980 due to decrease in total ozone (+2.5% per decade, effective cloud amount transmission (+2.1% per decade and aerosol loading (+1.1% per decade. However, there is no changes in Qer over larger 1968–2006 period due to significant decrease in effective cloud amount transmission (−11% per decade in 1968–1980.

  15. Corrosion behaviour of reinforced concrete: Laboratory experiments and archaeological analogues for long-term predictive modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L' Hostis, V. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SCCME, Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et des Argiles, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)], E-mail: valerie.lhostis@cea.fr; Foct, F. [EDF R and D/MMC, Site des Renardieres, 77818 Moret-sur-Loing cedex (France); Dillmann, P. [CEA/CNRS Laboratoire Pierre Suee, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex (France); CNRS IRAMAT, UMR 5060 (France)

    2008-09-30

    In the context of the nuclear waste storage, reinforced concrete will be used for various purposes such as cell structures and some types of containers (e.g. for intermediate level wastes). These structures are required to be safe and reliable in varying environments for long periods of time (up to several hundred years). This paper presents a specific approach that is developed in France at CEA and EDF for the prediction of long-term behaviour of such structures. It discusses the experimental and theoretical approaches which have been developed. It is based on interactive studies dedicated to short term experimentations (corrosion and mechanical behaviour of structures), characterization and specific tests on archaeological analogues, both used to develop mechanistic understanding and modelling of corrosion and mechanical behaviour of reinforced concrete. Advantages and limits of these different and complementary aspects are presented and discussed. Moreover the prediction results of a specific mechanistic model have been confronted to real structures exposed to atmospheric conditions for many years.

  16. Long-term survival and risk factors for failure of the native hip joint after operatively treated displaced acetabular fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke-Jenssen, J; Røise, O; Storeggen, S A Ø; Madsen, J E

    2017-06-01

    Our aim in this study was to describe the long-term survival of the native hip joint after open reduction and internal fixation of a displaced fracture of the acetabulum. We also present long-term clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with a poor outcome. A total of 285 patients underwent surgery for a displaced acetabular fracture between 1993 and 2005. For the survival analysis 253 were included, there were 197 men and 56 women with a mean age of 42 years (12 to 78). The mean follow-up of 11 years (1 to 20) was identified from our pelvic fracture registry. There were 99 elementary and 154 associated fracture types. For the long-term clinical follow-up, 192 patients with complete data were included. Their mean age was 40 years (13 to 78) with a mean follow-up of 12 years (5 to 20). Injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction were assessed with CT scans and patients with an ipsilateral fracture of the femoral head were excluded. A total of 36 patients underwent total hip arthroplasty (THA). The overall ten-year survival of the hip joint was 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 81% to 90%) and the 20-year survival was 82% (95% CI 76% to 87%). Injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction were the strongest predictors of failure, with the long-term survival rate falling towards 50% in these patients. The survival fell to 0% at three years when both these risk factors were present in patients aged > 60 years. The long-term survival of the native hip joint after acetabular fractures was good, but the presence of injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction proved to be strong predictors of failure, especially in patients aged > 60 years. These patients may be better treated with a combination of open reduction and internal fixation and primary arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:834-40. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  17. The short- and long-term risk of stroke after herpes zoster - a nationwide population-based cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandini Sreenivasan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Varicella zoster virus (VZV is known to cause VZV vasculopathy, which may be associated with stroke. A recent study found an increased risk of stroke within one year of herpes zoster. We aimed to investigate the short and long-term effects of herpes zoster on the risk of stroke. METHODS: Using Danish national registers, we constructed a cohort consisting of all Danish adults ≥18 years old between 1995 and 2008 (n = 4.6 million; person-years of follow-up = 52.9 million. Individual-level information on prescriptions for herpes zoster antiviral treatment and diagnoses of stroke was obtained from national registers. We compared the risk of stroke in persons who had received the specific dosage of acyclovir for herpes zoster with persons who had never received antiviral treatment by Poisson regression. RESULTS: During follow-up, 2.5% received treatment for herpes zoster and 5.0% were diagnosed with stroke. Individuals who had received medication had a 127% (95% CI 83-182% increased risk the first two weeks, 17% (CI 9-24% between two weeks and one year, and 5% (2-9% after the first year. The increased risk was greatest in the youngest age group (<40. To control for healthcare-seeking behaviour, we conducted parallel analyses investigating the risk of selected fractures after herpes zoster and found no similar increased risks. CONCLUSIONS: This large nationwide cohort study found an increased risk of stroke after treatment for herpes zoster. Although the short-term risk was particularly high, we cannot rule out the possibility of a small but important long-term risk.

  18. Prognostic value of p53 for high risk superficial bladder cancer with long-term followup.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moonen, P.M.J.; Balken-Ory, B. van; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.; Schalken, J.A.; Witjes, J.A.

    2007-01-01

    PURPOSE: The risk of muscle invasive disease in a high risk patient with superficial bladder cancer is up to 50%. Identifying patients at risk for progression remains an unsolved problem. A suggested prognosticator is mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene. We determined the value of p53 mutatio

  19. The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agus, David B.; Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P.; Messali, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Background The usefulness of aspirin to defend against cardiovascular disease in both primary and secondary settings is well recognized by the medical profession. Multiple studies also have found that daily aspirin significantly reduces cancer incidence and mortality. Despite these proven health benefits, aspirin use remains low among populations targeted by cardiovascular prevention guidelines. This article seeks to determine the long-term economic and population-health impact of broader use of aspirin by older Americans at higher risk for cardiovascular disease. Methods and Findings We employ the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation that follows Americans aged 50 and older, to project their lifetime health and spending under the status quo and in various scenarios of expanded aspirin use. The model is based primarily on data from the Health and Retirement Study, a large, representative, national survey that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Outcomes are chosen to provide a broad perspective of the individual and societal impacts of the interventions and include: heart disease, stroke, cancer, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and medical costs. Eligibility for increased aspirin use in simulations is based on the 2011–2012 questionnaire on preventive aspirin use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. These data reveal a large unmet need for daily aspirin, with over 40% of men and 10% of women aged 50 to 79 presenting high cardiovascular risk but not taking aspirin. We estimate that increased use by high-risk older Americans would improve national life expectancy at age 50 by 0.28 years (95% CI 0.08–0.50) and would add 900,000 people (95% CI 300,000–1,400,000) to the American population by 2036. After valuing the quality-adjusted life-years appropriately, Americans could expect $692 billion (95% CI 345–975) in net health benefits over that period. Conclusions Expanded

  20. Long-term corrosion of rebars embedded in aerial and hydraulic binders - Parametric study and first step of modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chitty, Walter-John [CEA, DSM, IRAMIS, Laboratoire Pierre Suee, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex (France); Dillmann, Philippe [CEA, DSM, IRAMIS, Laboratoire Pierre Suee, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex (France); Institut de Recherches sur les Archeomateriaux, LMC UMR5060 CNRS (France)], E-mail: philippe.dillmann@cea.fr; L' Hostis, Valerie [CEA, DEN, DPC, SCCME, Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et des Argiles, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Millard, Alain [CEA, DEN, DM2S, SEMT, Laboratoire de Modelisation, Systemes et Simulation, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2008-11-15

    The prediction of long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear industry requires a phenomenological modelling of the rebars corrosion processes. Previous analytical characterisation of archaeological artefacts allowed to identify a typical layout constituted of four layers (the metal, the dense product layer, the transformed medium and the binder). Additional experiments leaded to identify the long-term corrosion mechanisms. Following these results, this paper proposes an analytical model of long-term corrosion of rebars embedded in concrete. This modelling is considering the kinetic of oxygen diffusion through the system and its consumption at the metal/dense product layer interface as a function of concrete water saturation degree. Corrosion products thicknesses estimated with the model are then compared to corrosion product thicknesses measured on archaeological artefacts. A parametric study is performed and demonstrates that the oxygen diffusivity and the kinetic constant of the cathodic reaction affect in a wide range the model results.

  1. Development Of The Technique Of Assessment Of Banking Risks Of Long-Term Crediting Of Investments (On The Example Of Banks Of Sevastopol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulyana Viktorovna Dremova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The external destabilizing factor — financial crisis — has significantly influenced on the level increase of riskiness of the banking credit operations. Taking into account that the increased level of risk follows long-term credits, these operations has been influenced the most, that can be as one of the constraining conditions for the provision of bank long-term credit resources. It, in turn, causes the need to develop the risk assessment technique of long-term credits in regulation of banks’ long-term credit operations. As the risk assessment of credit operations in banking practice is generally limited to the calculation of credit risk, it is efficient to consider the scientifically reasonable approach to a risks assessment of long-term crediting including influence of private risks for the purpose of carrying out the generalized assessment of riskiness both separate types of long-term credits, and a long-term credit portfolio in general. The offered method is based on the calculation of aggregate risk coefficient of the long-term credits, calculated by means of mathematical method of principal component. In the work, it is offered to perform an assessment of private risks by means of statistics: the expectation value, mean square deviation, and the coefficient of a variation. The use of the principal components’ method at the risk assessment of longterm crediting meets such requirements as a lack of value judgment, accounting of specific features of private risks of long-term credits, mathematical validity. It gives the chance to apply the offered risk assessment method of long-term credits in banking. The conclusion is made that the application of an aggregative risk indicator of a long-term crediting will allow banks to trace more accurately the level of riskiness of a long-term credit portfolio and separate types of long-term credits that will strengthen the bank information and analytical base on risk regulation in the field and

  2. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  3. Physical activity, sedentary behavior, and long-term cardiovascular risk in young people:A review and discussion of methodology in prospective studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jakob Tarp; Jan Christian Brønd; Lars Bo Andersen; Niels Christian Møller; Karsten Froberg; Anders Grøntved

    2016-01-01

    The long-term effects of physical activity (PA) or sedentary behavior on cardiovascular health in young people are not well understood. In this study, we use a narrative format to review the evidence for a prospective association with adiposity and other well-established biological cardiovascular risk factors in healthy young people, considering only studies with at least 2 years of follow-up. PA appears to elicit a long-term beneficial effect on adiposity and particularly markers of cardiovascular health. With adiposity, however, a few studies also reported that higher levels of PA were associated with higher levels of adiposity. Time spent sedentary does not appear to be related to adiposity or markers of cardiovascular health independent of PA. We then discuss the uncertainties in the underlying causal chain and consider a number of alternative modeling strategies, which could improve our understanding of the relationship in future studies. Finally, we consider the current methodology for assessing PA and sedentary time.

  4. Long-term occlusal changes assessed by the American Board of Orthodontics' model grading system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aszkler, Robert M; Preston, Charles B; Saltaji, Humam; Tabbaa, Sawsan

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the long-term posttreatment changes in all criteria of the American Board of Orthodontics' (ABO) model grading system. We used plaster models from patients' final and posttreatment records. Thirty patients treated by 1 orthodontist using 1 bracket prescription were selected. An initial discrepancy index for each subject was performed to determine the complexity of each case. The final models were then graded using the ABO's model grading system immediately at posttreatment and postretention. Statistical analysis was performed on the 8 criteria of the model grading system, including paired t tests and Pearson correlations. An alpha of 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The average length of time between the posttreatment and postretention records was 12.7 ± 4.4 years. It was shown that alignment and rotations worsened by postretention (P = 0.014), and a weak statistically significant correlation at posttreatment and postretention was found (0.44; P = 0.016). Both marginal ridges and occlusal contacts scored less well at posttreatment. These criteria showed a significant decrease in scores between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), but the correlations were not statistically significant. The average total score showed a significant decrease between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), partly because of the large decrease in the previous 2 criteria. Higher scores for occlusal contacts and marginal ridges were found at the end of treatment; however, those scores and the overall scores for the 30 subjects improved in the postretention phase. Copyright © 2014. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  5. Modelling long-term sustainability of irrigation practices in semi arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on groundwater or surface water resources can be investigated through models simulating the hydrological and hydrogeological processes at the atmosphere/surface water/soil/groundwater interfaces. However, in aquifers extensively exploited for irrigation purposes, the water demand variability related to actual water availability, as well as to variation of the crops, and associated supply management options should be considered to evaluate impacts. Moreover, in the case of a multi-resources water supply system it is necessary to develop models able to simulate also the variation of the total demand distribution among each resource. We proposed a modeling scheme able to simulate an integrated multiple-resources and multiple-purposes water supply system by merging distributed crop water requirements with surface reservoir and ground water mass balance, considering resources availability and management, with emphasis on irrigation practices. The overall framework has been implemented for the case study of the Fortore water supply system, a semi-arid region in south Italy. It permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from the Occhito artificial reservoir (160 Mm3) and from groundwater to supply domestic, industrial and agricultural demand. The overall model successfully reproduces the Occhito dam level variability (both seasonal and inter-annual) as well as the observed groundwater depletion. The proposed model was forced by 60 years of meteorological observation to test the long-term sustainability of the current irrigation practices and has been extended to the next decades under a1b IPCC scenario using three ENSEMBLES member to test adaptation strategies.

  6. Frequency, imaging findings, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of distal clavicular osteolysis in young patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roedl, Johannes B.; Nevalainen, Mika; Gonzalez, Felix M.; Morrison, William B.; Zoga, Adam C. [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Thomas Jefferson University, Division of Musculoskeletal Imaging and Interventions, Department of Radiology, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Dodson, Christopher C. [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Rothman Institute, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Division of Sports Medicine, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Atraumatic distal clavicular osteolysis (DCO) has been described in adult male weightlifters. Our purpose was to investigate the frequency, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of DCO in young patients. Individuals with atraumatic DCO were identified in a retrospective review of 1,432 consecutive MRI shoulder reports in patients between 13 and 19 years of age. MRI findings of DCO, association with athletic activity, short-term clinical outcome after 3-6 months, and long-term clinical and MRI outcome after 2 years were analyzed. A pre-MRI questionnaire assessed the patients' athletic history including overhead activity and weightlifting. At a mean age of 15.9 years, 6.5 % (93/1432) of patients had atraumatic DCO, and 24 % were females. The combination of an overhead sport (basketball, volleyball, tennis, swimming) and supplemental weight training was a risk factor for DCO (odds ratio = 38, p = 0.01). Ninety-three percent of patients responded to conservative therapy. On follow-up imaging, 71 % of DCO patients had acromioclavicular (AC) joint osteoarthritis (vs. 35 % in controls, p = 0.006); 79 % had flattening of the distal clavicle and interval widening of the AC joint to a mean of 5.0 mm (compared to 2.4 mm in controls, p < 0.001). Severity of DCO edema was associated with pain (p < 0.02) at initial presentation and with AC joint osteoarthritis (p = 0.004) on follow-up. In athletic teenagers, the combination of weightlifting and overhead activity is a risk factor for atraumatic DCO, and females are affected in 24 %. Long-term sequelae include widening of the AC joint and AC joint osteoarthritis. (orig.)

  7. Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

    2017-04-01

    Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

  8. Current Understanding and Remaining Challenges in Modeling Long-Term Degradation of Borosilicate Nuclear Waste Glasses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vienna, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ryan, Joseph V. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gin, Stephane [CEA Marcoule, DTCD SECM, Bagnols-sur-Ceze (France); Inagaki, Yaohiro [Dept. of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoda (Japan)

    2013-12-01

    Chemical durability is not a single material property that can be uniquely measured. Instead it is the response to a host of coupled material and environmental processes whose rates are estimated by a combination of theory, experiment, and modeling. High-level nuclear waste (HLW) glass is perhaps the most studied of any material yet there remain significant technical gaps regarding their chemical durability. The phenomena affecting the long-term performance of HLW glasses in their disposal environment include surface reactions, transport properties to and from the reacting glass surface, and ion exchange between the solid glass and the surrounding solution and alteration products. The rates of these processes are strongly influenced and are coupled through the solution chemistry, which is in turn influenced by the reacting glass and also by reaction with the near-field materials and precipitation of alteration products. Therefore, those processes must be understood sufficiently well to estimate or bound the performance of HLW glass in its disposal environment over geologic time-scales. This article summarizes the current state of understanding of surface reactions, transport properties, and ion exchange along with the near-field materials and alteration products influences on solution chemistry and glass reaction rates. Also summarized are the remaining technical gaps along with recommended approaches to fill those technical gaps.

  9. Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Joseph; Buongiorno

    2016-01-01

    Background:This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global forest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005, 102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2]. Methods:Forest productivity was increased in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) in proportion to the rising [CO2] projected in the IPCC scenario A1B, A2, and B2. Projections of the forest area and forest stock and of the production, consumption, prices, and trade of products ranging from fuelwood to paper and paperboard were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario, with and without CO2 fertilization beginning in 2011 and up to 2065. Results:CO2 fertilization increased wood supply, leading to lower wood prices which in turn induced modest lower prices of end products and higher global consumption. However, production and value added in industries decreased in some regions due to the relative competitive advantages and to the varying regional effects of CO2 fertilization. Conclusion:The main effect of CO2 fertilization was to raise the level of the world forest stock in 2065 by 9 to 10%for scenarios A2 and B2 and by 20%for scenario A1B. The rise in forest stock induced by fertilization was in part counteracted by its stimulation of the wood supply which resulted in lower wood prices and increased harvests.

  10. Risk-Adjusted Impact of Administrative Costs on the Distribution of Terminal Wealth for Long-Term Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Guillén

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

  11. Risk-adjusted impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth for long-term investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, Montserrat; Jarner, Søren Fiig; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

    2014-01-01

    The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

  12. Workplace social capital and risk of long-term sickness absence. Are associations modified by occupational grade?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rugulies, Reiner; Hasle, Peter; Hyld Pejtersen, Jan;

    2016-01-01

    Background: Workplace social capital (WSC) is an emerging topic among both work environment professionals and researchers. We examined (i) whether high WSC protected against risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in a random sample of the Danish workforce during a 1-year follow-up and (ii......) whether the association of WSC with sickness absence was modified by occupational grade. Methods: We measured WSC by self-report in a cohort of 3075 employees and linked responses to a national register of sickness absence. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of onset...

  13. Risk Factors for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) Predict Long-Term Treatment with Docetaxel

    OpenAIRE

    Kawahara, Takashi; Miyoshi, Yasuhide; Sekiguchi, Zenkichi; Sano, Futoshi; Hayashi, Narihiko; Teranishi, Jun-ichi; Misaki, Hiroshi; Noguchi, Kazumi; Kubota, Yoshinobu; Uemura, Hiroji

    2012-01-01

    Purpose For patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostatic cancer (mCRPC), docetaxel plus prednisone leads to superior survival and a higher response rate compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone. We analyzed the efficacy of long-term treatment with ≥10 cycles of docetaxel, and validated the risk group classification in predicting overall survival (OS) in Japanese patients with mCRPC. Patients and Methods Fifty-two patients with mCRPC were administered 55 mg/m2 docetaxel and 8 mg d...

  14. A New View of Radiation-Induced Cancer: Integrating Short- and Long-Term Processes. Part II: Second Cancer Risk Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David J.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Sachs, Rainer K.

    2009-01-01

    As the number of cancer survivors grows, prediction of radiotherapy-induced second cancer risks becomes increasingly important. Because the latency period for solid tumors is long, the risks of recently introduced radiotherapy protocols are not yet directly measurable. In the accompanying article, we presented a new biologically based mathematical model, which, in principle, can estimate second cancer risks for any protocol. The novelty of the model is that it integrates, into a single formalism, mechanistic analyses of pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: short-term during radiotherapy and recovery; long-term during the entire life span. Here, we apply the model to nine solid cancer types (stomach, lung, colon, rectal, pancreatic, bladder, breast, central nervous system, and thyroid) using data on radiotherapy-induced second malignancies, on Japanese atomic bomb survivors, and on background US cancer incidence. Potentially, the model can be incorporated into radiotherapy treatment planning algorithms, adding second cancer risk as an optimization criterion.

  15. Animal model of methylphenidate's long-term memory-enhancing effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmack, Stephanie A; Howell, Kristin K; Rasaei, Kleou; Reas, Emilie T; Anagnostaras, Stephan G

    2014-01-16

    Methylphenidate (MPH), introduced more than 60 years ago, accounts for two-thirds of current prescriptions for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Although many studies have modeled MPH's effect on executive function, almost none have directly modeled its effect on long-term memory (LTM), even though improvement in LTM is a critical target of therapeutic intervention in ADHD. We examined the effects of a wide range of doses of MPH (0.01-10 mg/kg, i.p.) on Pavlovian fear learning, a leading model of memory. MPH's effects were then compared to those of atomoxetine (0.1-10 mg/kg, i.p.), bupropion (0.5-20 mg/kg, i.p.), and citalopram (0.01-10 mg/kg, i.p.). At low, clinically relevant doses, MPH enhanced fear memory; at high doses it impaired memory. MPH's memory-enhancing effects were not confounded by its effects on locomotion or anxiety. Further, MPH-induced memory enhancement seemed to require both dopamine and norepinephrine transporter inhibition. Finally, the addictive potential of MPH (1 mg/kg and 10 mg/kg) was compared to those of two other psychostimulants, amphetamine (0.005 mg/kg and 1.5 mg/kg) and cocaine (0.15 mg/kg and 15 mg/kg), using a conditioned place preference and behavioral sensitization paradigm. We found that memory-enhancing effects of psychostimulants observed at low doses are readily dissociable from their reinforcing and locomotor activating effects at high doses. Together, our data suggest that fear conditioning will be an especially fruitful platform for modeling the effects of psychostimulants on LTM in drug development.

  16. Modeling Cd and Cu mobility in soils amended by long-term urban waste compost applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipović, Vilim; Cambier, Philippe; Matijević, Lana; Coquet, Yves; Pot, Valérie; Houot, Sabine; Benoit, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Urban waste compost application to soil is an effective way for organic waste disposal and at the same time may have a positive effect on various soil rhizosphere processes. However, long term applications of organic waste amendments may lead to a noteworthy accumulation of micropollutants in soil. The long-term field experiment QualiAgro, an INRA-Veolia partnership (https://www6.inra.fr/qualiagro_eng/), has been conducted since 1998 with the objectives to characterize the agronomic value of urban composts and the environmental impacts of their application. Numerical modeling was performed using HYDRUS-2D to estimate the movement of Cd and Cu from compost incroporation in the tilled layer. Experimental plots regularly amended with co-compost of sewage sludge and green wastes (SGW), or a municipal solid waste compost (MSW) have been compared to control plot without any organic amendment (CONT). Field site was equipped with wicks lysimeters, TDR probes and tensiometers in order to determine water balance and trace metal concentrations during a 6 years' time period (2004-2010). In the tilled layer different structures (Δ - compacted clods, Γ - macroporous zone, IF - interfurrows, PP - plough pan) corresponding to the tillage and compost incorporation were delimited and reproduced in a 2-D model. The increase of Cd and Cu concentrations due to each compost addition was assumed to be located in IFs for further modeling. Four compost additions were performed during 2004-2010 period which increased the Cd and Cu concentrations in the IF zones considerably. After successful model description of water flow in highly heterogeneous soil profiles, Cd and Cu were added into the model and their fate was simulated during the same time period. Two approaches were followed to estimate plausible trace metals sorption coefficients (Kd), both while assuming equilibrium between dissolved and EDTA-extractable metals. The first approach was based on Kd estimated from ratios between

  17. Risk-based learning games improve long-term retention of information among school pupils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devonshire, Ian M; Davis, Jenny; Fairweather, Sophie; Highfield, Lauren; Thaker, Chandni; Walsh, Ashleigh; Wilson, Rachel; Hathway, Gareth J

    2014-01-01

    Risk heightens motivation and, if used appropriately, may have the potential to improve engagement in the classroom. We have developed a risk-based learning game for school pupils in order to test whether such learning games can improve later recall of information. The study was performed during a series of public engagement workshops delivered by undergraduate students. Undergraduate neuroscience students delivered 90-minute science workshops to 9-10 year old school pupils (n = 448) that were divided into 'Risk', 'No risk' and 'Control' classes. 'Risk' classes received periodic multiple-choice questions (MCQs) during the workshops which required small teams of pupils to assign tokens to the answer(s) they believed to be correct. Tokens assigned to the correct answer were returned to the group and an equal number given back as a prize; tokens assigned to incorrect answers were lost. Participation was incentivised by the promise of a brain-related prize to the team with the most tokens at the end of the workshop. 'No risk' classes received MCQs without the risk component whilst the 'Control' classes received no MCQs. When presented with a neuroscience quiz based on workshop content at the end of the workshop, pupils in the 'Risk' classes exhibited significantly greater recall of information one week later. Quiz scores were higher than scores from the day of the workshop which suggested pupils may have discussed the workshop content outside of the classroom, thereby increasing knowledge over and above what was learned during the workshop. This is supported by feedback from pupils in 'Risk' classes which indicated that 'Risk' workshops were more interesting than 'No risk' and 'Control' workshops. These data suggest that there is a role for risk in the classroom but further investigations are required to elucidate the causal mechanisms of improved retention of information.

  18. Risk-based learning games improve long-term retention of information among school pupils.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian M Devonshire

    Full Text Available Risk heightens motivation and, if used appropriately, may have the potential to improve engagement in the classroom. We have developed a risk-based learning game for school pupils in order to test whether such learning games can improve later recall of information. The study was performed during a series of public engagement workshops delivered by undergraduate students. Undergraduate neuroscience students delivered 90-minute science workshops to 9-10 year old school pupils (n = 448 that were divided into 'Risk', 'No risk' and 'Control' classes. 'Risk' classes received periodic multiple-choice questions (MCQs during the workshops which required small teams of pupils to assign tokens to the answer(s they believed to be correct. Tokens assigned to the correct answer were returned to the group and an equal number given back as a prize; tokens assigned to incorrect answers were lost. Participation was incentivised by the promise of a brain-related prize to the team with the most tokens at the end of the workshop. 'No risk' classes received MCQs without the risk component whilst the 'Control' classes received no MCQs. When presented with a neuroscience quiz based on workshop content at the end of the workshop, pupils in the 'Risk' classes exhibited significantly greater recall of information one week later. Quiz scores were higher than scores from the day of the workshop which suggested pupils may have discussed the workshop content outside of the classroom, thereby increasing knowledge over and above what was learned during the workshop. This is supported by feedback from pupils in 'Risk' classes which indicated that 'Risk' workshops were more interesting than 'No risk' and 'Control' workshops. These data suggest that there is a role for risk in the classroom but further investigations are required to elucidate the causal mechanisms of improved retention of information.

  19. Low Carbohydrate-Diet Scores and Long-term Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Among Women With a History of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Prospective Cohort Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bao, Wei; Li, Shanshan; Chavarro, Jorge E; Tobias, Deirdre K; Zhu, Yeyi; Hu, Frank B; Zhang, Cuilin

    2016-01-01

    ...), but the long-term effect on progression from GDM to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is unknown. We aimed to examine the long-term risk of T2DM in association with a low-carbohydrate dietary pattern among women with a history of GDM...

  20. Liver and kidney toxicity in chronic use of opioids: An experimental long term treatment model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sebnem Atici; Ismail Cinel; Leyla Cinel; Nurcan Doruk; Gulcin Eskandari; Ugur Oral

    2005-03-01

    In this study, histopathological and biochemical changes due to chronic usage of morphine or tramadol in liver and kidney were assessed in rats. Thirty male Wistar rats (180–220 g) were included and divided into three groups. Normal saline (1 ml) was given intraperitoneally as placebo in the control group ( = 10). Morphine group ( = 10) received morphine intraperitoneally at a dose of 4, 8, 10 mg/kg/day in the first, second and the third ten days of the study, respectively. Tramadol group ( = 10), received the drug intraperitoneally at doses of 20, 40 and 80 mg/kg/day in the first, second and the third ten days of the study, respectively. Aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatinin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels were measured in the serum. Liver and kidney specimens were evaluated by light microscopy. Serum ALT, AST, LDH, BUN and creatinin levels were significantly higher in morphine group compared to the control group. Serum LDH, BUN and creatinin levels were significantly increased in the morphine group compared to the tramadol group. The mean MDA level was significantly higher in morphine group compared to the tramadol and control groups ( < 0.05). Light microscopy revealed severe centrolobular congestion and focal necrosis in the liver of morphine and tramadol groups, but perivenular necrosis was present only in the morphine group. The main histopathologic finding was vacuolization in tubular cells in morphine and tramadol groups. Our findings pointed out the risk of increased lipid peroxidation, hepatic and renal damage due to long term use of opioids, especially morphine. Although opioids are reported to be effective in pain management, their toxic effects should be kept in mind during chronic usage.

  1. Are preterm-born survivors at risk of long-term respiratory disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaczmarczyk, Katarzyna; Wiszomirska, Ida; Szturmowicz, Magdalena; Magiera, Andrzej; Błażkiewicz, Michalina

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the long-term impact of preterm birth on respiratory function in female patients born preterm, we undertook spirometric examinations twice, as they reached the age of puberty, then follow-up examinations of part of the same cohort in adulthood. We sought evidence that preterm birth is correlated with poorer spirometric results into adulthood. A total of 70 girls (aged 12.2 ± 1.5 years in 1997) who had been born preterm (at 34.7 ± 1.86 weeks, none having experienced bronchopulmonary dysplasia) took part in spriometric examinations in 1997 and again in 1998. Of those, after a gap of 17 years, a group of 12 were successfully recontacted and participated in the 2015 examination as adults (then aged 27.6 ± 2.6 years, born at 34.5 ± 1.92 weeks). We compared spirometric results across the adolescent and adult examinations, and compared the adult results with an adult reference group. The percentage values of FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 s), FVC (forced vital capacity) and MVV (maximal voluntary ventilation) showed significant improvement between the two examinations in the early adolescent period. In adulthood, FEV1%pred (percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s) showed no statistically significant difference. The mean values of both FVC and FVC%pred (percentage predicted forced vital capacity) for the preterm-born group were lower than for the reference group, but this was not statistically significant. The preterm-born group showed lower values of such parameters as forced expiratory flow at 25-75% of FVC, MEF25 (maximal expiratory flow at 25% of forced vital capacity) and FEV1/FVC as compared with the reference group, but again without statistical significance. (1) A somewhat below-norm level of respiratory parameters among preterm-born girls entering pubescence may attest to continued negative impact on their respiratory system. (2) A significant improvement in their spirometric results 1 year later may indicate that pubescence helps

  2. REMI and ROUSE: Quantitative Models for Long-Term and Short-Term Priming in Perceptual Identification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J. Wagenmakers (Eric-Jan); R. Zeelenberg (René); D.E. Huber (David); J.G.W. Raaijmakers (Jeroen)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe REM model originally developed for recognition memory (Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997) has recently been extended to implicit memory phenomena observed during threshold identification of words. We discuss two REM models based on Bayesian principles: a model for long-term priming (REMI; Sc

  3. REMI and ROUSE: Quantitative Models for Long-Term and Short-Term Priming in Perceptual Identification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J. Wagenmakers (Eric-Jan); R. Zeelenberg (René); D.E. Huber (David); J.G.W. Raaijmakers (Jeroen)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe REM model originally developed for recognition memory (Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997) has recently been extended to implicit memory phenomena observed during threshold identification of words. We discuss two REM models based on Bayesian principles: a model for long-term priming (REMI;

  4. The Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE): an innovative long-term care model in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mui, A C

    2001-01-01

    This article examines the long-term care service system in the United States, its problems, and an improved long-term care model. Problematic quality of care in institutional settings and fragmentation of service coordination in community-based settings are two major issues in the traditional long-term care system. The Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) has been emerging since the 1970s to address these issues, particularly because most frail elders prefer community-based to institutional care. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 made PACE a permanent provider type under Medicare and granted states the option of paying a capitation rate for PACE services under Medicaid. The PACE model is a managed long-term care system that provides frail elders alternatives to nursing home life. The PACE program's primary goals are to maximize each frail elderly participant's autonomy and continued community residence, and to provide quality care at a lower cost than Medicare, Medicaid, and private-pay participants, who pay in the traditional fee-for-service system. In exchange for Medicare and Medicaid fixed monthly payments for each participating frail elder, PACE service systems provide a continuum of long-term care services, including hospital and nursing home care, and bear full financial risk. Integration of acute and long-term care services in the PACE model allows care of frail elders with multiple problems by a single service organization that can provide a full range of services. PACE's range of services and organizational features are discussed.

  5. Modeling organic carbon dynamics and cadmium fate in long-term sludge-amended soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergkvist, Petra; Jarvis, Nicholas

    2004-01-01

    A model is described that may help to resolve uncertainty and controversy over the long-term consequences of sludge applications to arable land, especially with regard to the effects of sludge adsorption characteristics on trace metal solubility and bioavailability (e.g., the sludge "time bomb" or sludge "protection" hypotheses). Mass balances of organic and inorganic material derived from sludge and crop residues are simulated. Each pool has a potentially different adsorption affinity for trace metals, and this leads to changes in the adsorption capacity of sludge-amended soil that influence leaching and crop uptake. Model simulations were compared with measured changes in organic carbon and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA)-extractable cadmium contents in a clay loam soil following 41 years of sludge applications. The model adequately reproduced the data, although discrepancies in the vertical distribution of Cd were attributed to the effects of macropore transport and root-uptake driven recirculation. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the most important parameters affecting leaching and crop uptake were the Cd loading and parameters controlling adsorption, especially the partition coefficient for sludge-derived inorganic material and the exponent regulating the effect of pH on sorption. Scenario simulations show that no general conclusions can be drawn with respect to the validity of the sludge "time bomb" and sludge "protection" hypotheses. Either may occur, or neither, depending on three key system parameters: the ratio of sludge adsorption capacity to the initial adsorption capacity of the soil, the proportion of the sludge adsorption capacity contributed by the inorganic fraction, and the sludge Cd loading.

  6. Long term evolution of the subglacial water pressure on Russell glacier, a modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Fleurian, Basile; Mouginot, Jeremie; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.

    2017-04-01

    Basal sliding is the main control on land terminating outlet glaciers velocity. This sliding is mainly driven by the water pressure at the base of the glaciers. The ongoing increase in surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet warrants an examination of its impact on basal water pressure and in turn on basal sliding. Here, we examine the case of Russell glacier, West Greenland, where a remarkably extensive set of observations have been gathered. Our recently published study (de Fleurian et. al. 2016) is pointing to the fact that two different hydrological regimes exist under this glacier. Near the front of the glacier, the development of an efficient drainage system allows the water pressure to drop quickly at the end of summer and yields a stagnation of its annual-mean value. Conversely, further upglacier, the lack of an efficient drainage system leads to an increase of the mean annual water pressure throughout the years. This study left the question of the long term evolution of the subglacial hydrological system under a warmer climate. To answer this question we present here the results of longer simulations where runoff forcing is derived from a simple Positive Degree Day scheme scaled on the IPCC climatic scenarios. To get further insight from our subglacial hydrological model, we investigate the impact of the varying water pressure on modelled surface velocities. Reference: de Fleurian, B., M. Morlighem, H. Seroussi, E. Rignot, M. R. van den Broecke, P. Kuipers Munneke, J. Mouginot, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and A. J. Tedstone (2016), A modeling study of the effect of runoff variability on the effective pressure beneath Russell Glacier, West Greenland, J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 121, 1834-1848, doi:10.1002/2016JF003842.

  7. Risk of diabetes mellitus in long-term survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nimwegen, F.A. van; Schaapveld, M.; Janus, C.P.; Krol, A.D.; Raemaekers, J.M.M.; Kremer, L.C.; Stovall, M.; Aleman, B.M.; Leeuwen, F.E. van

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: Recently, an increased risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) was observed after abdominal irradiation for childhood cancer. Because many Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors have also been treated with infradiaphragmatic radiotherapy, we evaluated the association between HL treatment and DM risk. PATIE

  8. Water Scarcity in the Zambezi Basin in the Long-Term Future: A Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore possible futures for the Zambezi basin and to estimate the risks of different water management strategies. Existing uncertainties are translated into alternative assumptions. The risk of a certain management strategy, which has been developed under a given set of

  9. Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and the risk of coronary heart disease hospitalization and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Wen Qi; Koehoorn, Mieke; Davies, Hugh W; Demers, Paul A; Tamburic, Lillian; Brauer, Michael

    2011-04-01

    Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that exposure to road traffic is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to identify specific traffic-related air pollutants that are associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality to support evidence-based environmental policy making. This population-based cohort study included a 5-year exposure period and a 4-year follow-up period. All residents 45-85 years of age who resided in Metropolitan Vancouver during the exposure period and without known CHD at baseline were included in this study (n=452,735). Individual exposures to traffic-related air pollutants including black carbon, fine particles [aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM(2.5))], nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and nitric oxide were estimated at residences of the subjects using land-use regression models and integrating changes in residences during the exposure period. CHD hospitalizations and deaths during the follow-up period were identified from provincial hospitalization and death registration records. An interquartile range elevation in the average concentration of black carbon (0.94 × 10(-5)/m filter absorbance, equivalent to approximately 0.8 µg/m(3) elemental carbon) was associated with a 3% increase in CHD hospitalization (95% confidence interval, 1-5%) and a 6% increase in CHD mortality (3-9%) after adjusting for age, sex, preexisting comorbidity, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and copollutants (PM(2.5) and NO(2)). There were clear linear exposure-response relationships between black carbon and coronary events. Long-term exposure to traffic-related fine particulate air pollution, indicated by black carbon, may partly explain the observed associations between exposure to road traffic and adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

  10. Pressure Ulcer Risk Factors Among the Elderly Living in Long-term Institutions .

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira Chacon, Julieta Marie; Nagaoka, Caroline; Blanes, Leila; Masako Ferreira, Lydia

    2010-04-01

     Although many intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors are involved, pressure is the most important factor in the development of pressure ulcers. The elderly are more susceptible to the development of these skin lesions as a result of changes associated with the aging process. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for pressure ulcers in the elderly living in long-term institutions. An analytic cross-sectional study of 40 patients age 60 years and older with pressure ulcers was conducted in six long-term institutions for the elderly (LTIE) in the West Side of São Paulo, Brazil. The present study evaluates pressure ulcers and their associated risk factors. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's chi-square test, Student's t-test, and Fisher's exact test. A statistically significant association between the risk factors evaluated in this study and the development of pressure ulcers in the sample was not found. According to the Braden scale, 67.5% of the patients were at high risk for pressure ulcer development. Fifty-one pressure ulcers were detected, with the majority (56.2%) being located in the sacral region. In the present study, more than 50% of the patients had low sensory perception, mobility, nutrition, and friction and shear subscales scores. The most prevalent risk factors were advanced age (mean, 83.8 years), length of stay that exceeded 31 months, white skin, neuromotor and skeletal muscle disorders, urinary and fecal incontinence, and continuous use of sedatives, analgesics, and hypotensives. The knowledge of risk factors is essential for healthcare professionals in planning effective prevention programs that target the elderly living in LTIE.

  11. Evaluation of fracture risk and potential drug holidays for postmenopausal women on long-term bisphosphonate therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostoff MD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Matthew D Kostoff, Joseph J Saseen, Laura M BorgeltDepartments of Clinical Pharmacy and Family Medicine, University of Colorado Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences and School of Medicine, Aurora, CO, USAStudy objective: To describe characteristics of postmenopausal women on long-term bisphosphonate therapy who fall into one of four fracture risk categories (low, mild, moderate, high, and to determine the prevalence of women eligible for a drug holiday.Design: Retrospective electronic health record review.Setting: Eight primary care clinics within a university-based health care system.Patients: A total of 201 postmenopausal women of ages 55–89 years, with osteopenia or osteoporosis, prescribed bisphosphonate therapy for >4 years, between October 10, 2002 and September 9, 2012.Main results: The patients' mean age was 71.4 (±8.2 years; their mean body mass index was 25.3 (±5.6 kg/m2; and 73.1% were white. Seventy-four out of 201 patients (36.8% were low-risk; 10/201 (5.0% were mild-risk; 72/201 (35.8% were moderate-risk; and 45/201 (22.4% were high-risk. Eighty-one women (40.3% were eligible for a drug holiday or discontinuation. The estimated drug cost avoided per eligible patient was $574.80. Calcium and/or vitamin D supplementation was documented in 52.7% of women.Conclusion: More than one-third of postmenopausal women taking long-term bisphosphonate therapy had low fracture risk, and over 40% of our patients were eligble for a drug holiday or discontinuation. These data emphasize the need to accurately assess risk and benefit in patients treated with bisphosphonate therapy.Keywords: postmenopausal osteoporosis, bisphosphonates, drug holiday, fracture

  12. ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitworth, Julia [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lloyd, Jane Alexandria [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Majors, Harry W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-05-04

    This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.

  13. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  14. Delirium in cardiac surgery : a study on risk-assessment and long-term consequenses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, Sandra

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Delirium or acute confusion is a temporary mental disorder, which occurs frequently among hospitalized elderly patients. Patients who undergo cardiac surgery have an increased risk of developing delirium. Delirium is associated with many negative consequences. Therefore, prevention or ea

  15. Is a Long Term Work in Automotive Industry a Risk Factor for Renal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    chronic renal failure can cause great disability or even death. ... Prevention of renal disorders is possible ... work with toxic metals and exposure to them is an important risk factor ..... The association between total urinary arsenic concentration.

  16. Long-Term Data Reveal Rate and Risk Factors for Subsequent Surgeries Following Initial ACL Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Risk Factors for Subsequent Surgeries Following Initial ACL Reconstruction Nearly one-fifth of patients who undergo ... surgery to reconstruct a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) eventually need to have additional surgery on the ...

  17. Delirium in cardiac surgery. A study on risk-assessment and long-term consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogen-Koster, S.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Delirium or acute confusion is a temporary mental disorder, which occurs frequently among hospitalized elderly patients. Patients who undergo cardiac surgery have an increased risk of developing delirium. Delirium is associated with many negative consequences. Therefore, prevention or

  18. Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Conrad, Christian; Loch, Karin

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the relationship between long-term U.S. stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results provide strong evidence in favor of counter-cyclical behavior of long-term stock market volatility. Among the various macro variables in our dataset the term spread, housing starts, corporate profits and the unemployment rate have the highest predictive ability for stock market volatility . While the term spread and housing starts are...

  19. THE STRUCTURE OF THE DESERT ECONOMY: RISKS AND STRATEGIES FOR LONG-TERM SUSTAINABLE GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    Rola-Rubzen, Maria Fay; McGregor, Murray J.

    2009-01-01

    The Australian desert economy is a $90 billion dollar economy. However currently, there is a reliance on a few industry sectors in delivering its output. About 60% of the gross revenue of the desert comes from only three sectors - mining, manufacturing and agriculture. This can pose a risk in light of climate change, increasing interconnectedness of financial markets and the fact that the resources boom is unlikely to be an on-going phenomenon. How can desert economies mitigate risks associat...

  20. Developing a pressure ulcer risk assessment scale for patients in long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepisto, Mervi; Eriksson, Elina; Hietanen, Helvi; Lepisto, Jyri; Lauri, Sirkka

    2006-02-01

    Previous pressure ulcer risk assessment scales appear to have relied on opinions about risk factors and are based on care setting rather than research evidence. Utilizing 21 existing risk assessment scales and relevant risk factor literature, an instrument was developed by Finnish researchers that takes into account individual patient risk factors, devices and methods applied in nursing care, and organizational characteristics. The instrument underwent two pilot tests to assess the relevance and clarity of the instrument: the first involved 43 nurses and six patients; the second involved 50 nurses with expertise in wound care. Changes to questionnaire items deemed necessary as a result of descriptive analysis and agreement percentages were completed. After pilot testing, the final instrument addressed the following issues: 1) patient risks: activity, mobility in bed, mental status, nutrition, urinary incontinence, fecal incontinence, sensory perception, and skin condition; 2) devices and methods used in patient care: technical devices, bed type, mattress, overlay, seat cushions, and care methods; and 3) staff number and structure, maximum number of beds, and beds in use (the last group of questions were included to ensure participants understood the items; results were not analyzed). The phases of the study provided an expeditious means of data collection and a suitable opportunity to assess how the instrument would function in practice. Instrument reliability and validity were improved as a result of the pilot testing and can be enhanced further with continued use and assessment.

  1. Long-term risk of gastrointestinal cancers in persons with gastric or duodenal ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Søgaard, Kirstine K; Farkas, Dóra K; Pedersen, Lars; Lund, Jennifer L; Thomsen, Reimar W; Sørensen, Henrik T

    2016-06-01

    Peptic ulcer predicts gastric cancer. It is controversial if peptic ulcers predict other gastrointestinal cancers, potentially related to Helicobacter pylori or shared lifestyle factors. We hypothesized that gastric and duodenal ulcers may have different impact on the risk of gastrointestinal cancers. In a nationwide cohort study using Danish medical databases 1994-2013, we quantified the risk of gastric and other gastrointestinal cancers among patients with duodenal ulcers (dominantly H. pylori-related) and gastric ulcers (dominantly lifestyle-related) compared with the general population. We started follow-up 1-year after ulcer diagnosis to avoid detection bias and calculated absolute risks of cancer and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). We identified 54,565 patients with gastric ulcers and 38,576 patients with duodenal ulcers. Patient characteristics were similar in the two cohorts. The 1-5-year risk of any gastrointestinal cancer was slightly higher for gastric ulcers patients (2.1%) than for duodenal ulcers patients (2.0%), and SIRs were 1.38 (95% CI: 1.31-1.44) and 1.30 (95% CI: 1.23-1.37), respectively. The SIR of gastric cancer was higher among patients with gastric ulcer than duodenal ulcer (1.92 vs. 1.38), while the SIRs for other gastrointestinal cancers were similar (1.33 vs. 1.29). Compared with gastric ulcer patients, duodenal ulcer patients were at lower risk of smoking- and alcohol-related gastrointestinal cancers. The risk of nongastric gastrointestinal cancers is increased both for patients with gastric ulcers and with duodenal ulcers, but absolute risks are low. H. pylori may be less important for the development of nongastric gastrointestinal cancer than hypothesized.

  2. Modelling crop yield, soil organic C and P under variable long-term fertilizer management in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Xu, Guang; Xu, Minggang; Balkovič, Juraj; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Wang, Jinzhou; Yu, Chaoqing

    2016-04-01

    Phosphorus (P) is a major limiting nutrient for plant growth. P, as a nonrenewable resource and the controlling factor of aquatic entrophication, is critical for food security and human future, and concerns sustainable resource use and environmental impacts. It is thus essential to find an integrated and effective approach to optimize phosphorus fertilizer application in the agro-ecosystem while maintaining crop yield and minimizing environmental risk. Crop P models have been used to simulate plant-soil interactions but are rarely validated with scattered long-term fertilizer control field experiments. We employed a process-based model named Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC) to simulate grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil available P based upon 8 field experiments in China with 11 years dataset, representing the typical Chinese soil types and agro-ecosystems of different regions. 4 treatments, including N, P, and K fertilizer (NPK), no fertilizer (CK), N and K fertilizer (NK) and N, P, K and manure (NPKM) were measured and modelled. A series of sensitivity tests were conducted to analyze the sensitivity of grain yields and soil available P to sequential fertilizer rates in typical humid, normal and drought years. Our results indicated that the EPIC model showed a significant agreement for simulating grain yields with R2=0.72, index of agreement (d)=0.87, modeling efficiency (EF)=0.68, pmanagement practices.

  3. From basalts to badlands : modelling long-term landscape response to lava damming of an upland catchment in western Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorp, van W.

    2014-01-01

    Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers (tectonics, climate, local base level) on long term catchment evolution. In this thesis, field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling are combined to unravel

  4. Long term prognosis of fatty liver: risk of chronic liver disease and death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam-Larsen, S; Franzmann, M; Andersen, I B;

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver is a common histological finding in human liver biopsy specimens. It affects 10-24% of the general population and is believed to be a marker of risk of later chronic liver disease. The present study examined the risk of development of cirrhotic liver disease...... and the risk of death in a cohort diagnosed with pure fatty liver without inflammation. METHODS: A total of 215 patients who had a liver biopsy performed during the period 1976-1987 were included in the study. The population consisted of 109 non-alcoholic and 106 alcoholic fatty liver patients. Median follow...... of Patients and the nationwide Registry of Causes of Death, and all admissions, discharge diagnoses, and causes of death were obtained. RESULTS: In the non-alcoholic fatty liver group, one patient developed cirrhosis during the follow up period compared with 22 patients in the alcoholic group. Survival...

  5. Creating long-term weather data from thin air for crop simulation modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wart, Van Justin; Grassini, Patricio; Yang, Haishun; Claessens, Lieven; Jarvis, Andrew; Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2015-01-01

    Simulating crop yield and yield variability requires long-term, high-quality daily weather data, including solar radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation. In many regions, however, daily weather data of sufficient quality and duration are not available. To overcome

  6. Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2015-01-01

    Background: This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the globalforest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005, 102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2].Methods:...

  7. Long-term leaching from MSWI air-pollution-control residues: Leaching characterization and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyks, Jiri; Astrup, Thomas; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    Long-term leaching of Ca, Fe, Mg, K, Na, S, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mo, Sb, Si, Sri, Sr, Ti, V, P, Cl, and dissolved organic carbon from two different municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control residues was monitored during 24 months of column...

  8. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine;

    2009-01-01

    sorption and first-order degradation kinetics as recommended in the European Union pesticide authorization procedure, MACRO was unable to accurately simulate the long-term fate of metribuzin and diketometribuzin; the concentrations in the soil were underestimated by many orders of magnitude. By introducing...

  9. Creating long-term weather data from thin air for crop simulation modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wart, Van Justin; Grassini, Patricio; Yang, Haishun; Claessens, Lieven; Jarvis, Andrew; Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2015-01-01

    Simulating crop yield and yield variability requires long-term, high-quality daily weather data, including solar radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation. In many regions, however, daily weather data of sufficient quality and duration are not available. To overcome

  10. OBESITY-RELATED CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS AFTER LONG- TERM RESISTANCE TRAINING AND GINGER SUPPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sirvan Atashak

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Obesity and its metabolic consequences are major risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, lifestyle interventions, including exercise training and dietary components may decrease cardiovascular risk. Hence, this study was conducted to assess the effects of ginger supplementation and progressive resistance training on some cardiovascular risk factors in obese men. In a randomized double-blind design, 32 obese Iranian men (BMI > 30 were assigned in to one of four groups: Placebo (PL, n = 8; ginger group (GI, n = 8 that consumed 1 gr ginger/d for 10 wk; resistance training plus placebo (RTPL, n = 8; and 1gr ginger plus resistance exercise (RTGI, n = 8. Progressive resistance training was performed three days per week for 10 weeks and included eight exercises. At baseline and after 10 weeks, body composition and anthropometric indices were measured. To identify other risk factors, venous blood samples were obtained before and 48-72 hours after the last training session for measurement of blood lipids (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG, systemic inflammation (CRP, and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR. After 10 weeks both RTGI and RTPL groups showed significant decreases in waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, body fat percent, body fat mass, total cholesterol, and insulin resistance (p < 0.05 and a significant increase in fat free mass (FFM (p < 0.05, while it remained unchanged in PL and GI. Further, significant decreases in the mean values of CRP were observed in all groups except PL (p < 0.05. Our results reveal that resistance training is an effective therapeutic strategy to reduce cardiovascular risk in obese Iranian men. Further, ginger supplementation alone or in combination with resistance training, also reduces chronic inflammation. However more research on the efficacy of this supplement to reduce cardiovascular risk in humans is required.

  11. Long-term fiscal implications of funding assisted reproduction: a generational accounting model for Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Matorras

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the lifetime economic benefits of assisted reproduction in Spain by calculating the return on this investment. We developed a generational accounting model that simulates the flow of taxes paid by the individual, minus direct government transfers received over the individual’s lifetime. The difference between discounted transfers and taxes minus the cost of either IVF or artificial insemination (AI equals the net fiscal contribution (NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction. We conducted sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our results under various macroeconomic scenarios. A child conceived through assisted reproduction would contribute €370,482 in net taxes to the Spanish Treasury and would receive €275,972 in transfers over their lifetime. Taking into account that only 75% of assisted reproduction pregnancies are successful, the NFC was estimated at €66,709 for IVF-conceived children and €67,253 for AI-conceived children. The return on investment for each euro invested was €15.98 for IVF and €18.53 for AI. The long-term NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction could range from €466,379 to €-9,529 (IVF and from €466,923 to €-8,985 (AI. The return on investment would vary between €-2.28 and €111.75 (IVF, and €-2.48 and €128.66 (AI for each euro invested. The break-even point at which the financial position would begin to favour the Spanish Treasury ranges between 29 and 41 years of age. Investment in assisted reproductive techniques may lead to positive discounted future fiscal revenue, notwithstanding its beneficial psychological effect for infertile couples in Spain.

  12. Disturbance frequency and vertical distribution of seeds affect long-term population dynamics: a mechanistic seed bank model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eager, Eric Alan; Haridas, Chirakkal V; Pilson, Diana; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2013-08-01

    Seed banks are critically important for disturbance specialist plants because seeds of these species germinate only in disturbed soil. Disturbance and seed depth affect the survival and germination probability of seeds in the seed bank, which in turn affect population dynamics. We develop a density-dependent stochastic integral projection model to evaluate the effect of stochastic soil disturbances on plant population dynamics with an emphasis on mimicking how disturbances vertically redistribute seeds within the seed bank. We perform a simulation analysis of the effect of the frequency and mean depth of disturbances on the population's quasi-extinction probability, as well as the long-term mean and variance of the total density of seeds in the seed bank. We show that increasing the frequency of disturbances increases the long-term viability of the population, but the relationship between the mean depth of disturbance and the long-term viability of the population are not necessarily monotonic for all parameter combinations. Specifically, an increase in the probability of disturbance increases the long-term viability of the total seed bank population. However, if the probability of disturbance is too low, a shallower mean depth of disturbance can increase long-term viability, a relationship that switches as the probability of disturbance increases. However, a shallow disturbance depth is beneficial only in scenarios with low survival in the seed bank.

  13. Risk factors and long-term health consequences of macrosomia: a prospective study in Jiangsu Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Shouyong; An, Xiaofei; Fang, Liang; Zhang, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chunyan; Wang, Jingling; Liu, Qilan; Zhang, Yanfang; Wei, Yongyue; Hu, Zhibin; Chen, Feng; Shen, Hongbing

    2012-07-01

    We sought to determine risk factors associated with fetal macrosomia and to explore the long-term consequence of infant macrosomia at the age of 7 years. A prospective population based cohort study was designed to examine the associations between maternal and perinatal characteristics and the risk of macrosomia. A nested case-control study was conducted to explore the long-term health consequence of infant macrosomia. The mean maternal age of the macrosomia group was 24.74±3.32 years, which is slightly older than that in the control group (24.35±3.14 years, P = 0.000). The mean maternal body mass index (BMI) at early pregnancy was 22.75±2.81 kg/m(2), which was also higher than that in the control group (21.76±2.59 kg/m(2), P = 0.000). About 64.6% of macrosomic neonates were males, compared with 51.0% in the control group (P = 0.000). Compared with women with normal weight (BMI: 18.5-23.9 kg/m(2)), women who were overweight (BMI: 24-27.9 kg/m(2)) or obese (BMI≥28 kg/m(2)), respectively, had a 1.69-fold (P = 0.000) and a 1.49-fold (P = 0.000) increased risks of having a neonate with macrosomia, while light weight (BMImacrosomia infant had a 1.52-fold and 1.50-fold risk, respectively, of developing overweight or obesity at the age of 7 years (P = 0.001 and P = 0.000). Older maternal age, higher maternal BMI at early pregnancy and male gender were independent risk factors of macrosomia. Macrosomic infant was associated with an increased predisposition to develop overweight or obesity at the beginning of their childhood.

  14. The mitigating influence of volunteer work on risk of long-term unemployment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovski, Erik; Dencker-Larsen, Sofie; Holm, Anders

    ,796 individuals of working age. The survey data is linked to administrative registers with individual level data on unemployment. A combination of detailed controls, lagged dependent variables, and instrumental variable regression is used in order to determine cause and effect. Our findings show that volunteers...... generally do not have a statistically significantly reduced risk or rate of unemployment....

  15. Long-term effects of nutritional group education for persons at high cardiovascular risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bemelmans, WJE; Broer, J; Hulshof, KFAM; Siero, FW; May, JF; Meyboom-de Jong, B

    Background: Treatment of persons at high risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) should include nutritional counselling, but little is known about the effects of different types of education. Methods: In a quasi-experimental study design the effects of a nutritional education programme (1(st) year:

  16. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on t

  17. Environmental Satellites: Planning Required to Mitigate Near-Term Risks and Ensure Long-Term Continuity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-29

    work together. For example, climate measurements have allowed scientists to better understand the effect of deforestation on how the earth absorbs...development activities. Until the transition risks are effectively mitigated, and unless components are able to continue scheduled development, it...observations such as greenhouse gas levels (e.g., carbon dioxide), aerosol and dust particles, and moisture concentration. When these data are

  18. Long-term effects of nutritional group education for persons at high cardiovascular risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bemelmans, WJE; Broer, J; Hulshof, KFAM; Siero, FW; May, JF; Meyboom-de Jong, B

    2004-01-01

    Background: Treatment of persons at high risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) should include nutritional counselling, but little is known about the effects of different types of education. Methods: In a quasi-experimental study design the effects of a nutritional education programme (1(st) year: th

  19. Long-term effects of nutritional group education for persons at high cardiovascular risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bemelmans, W.J.E.; Broer, J.; Hulshof, K.F.A.M.; Siero, F.W.; May, J.F.; Meyboom-de Jong, B.

    2004-01-01

    Background: Treatment of persons at high risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) should include nutritional counselling, but little is known about the effects of different types of education. Methods: In a quasi-experimental study design the effects of a nutritional education programme (1st year: thre

  20. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on t

  1. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

  2. Long-term dietary heme iron and red meat intake in relation to endometrial cancer risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Genkinger, J.M.; Friberg, E.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Wolk, A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Heme and total iron, present in meat, have been hypothesized to promote carcinogenesis. Few prospective studies have examined the associations between intakes of heme and total iron, types of meat, and endometrial cancer risk. Objective: We evaluated the associations between intakes of h

  3. Is a long term work in automotive industry a risk factor for renal dysfunction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assadi, Seyedeh Negar

    2015-01-01

    Disorders of renal system can cause renal failure; therefore screening is necessary especially in workers who are exposed to harmful materials. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hazardous exposures are non-occupational and occupational risk factors for renal diseases. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of working in automotive industry on renal function in Iran. In a historical cohort study, workers of automotive industry who worked in production and had low exposure to metal fumes were selected and divided to three groups with 5-10, 11-20, and 21-30 years work duration. risk factors for renal diseases were collected and analyzed with SPSS using one-way ANOVA, correlation coefficient and with P risk with a confidence interval (CI). The means of work duration in Groups (A), (B) and (C) were 9.8 (0.6), 13.8 (2.0), 22.3 (1.6) years respectively with ANOVA (F) =187.864 and P risk of creatinine clearance, uric acid and mean blood pressure were the highest in Group (B); 1.970 - CI, 0.541-7.169, 1.571 95% CI: 0.198-12.470, and 1.519 95% CI: 0.425-5.426, but the differences were not significant. GFRs were decreased with work duration, but the differences were not significant. Working in automotive Industry with low exposure to toxic metals and solvents has no significant effect on GFR, creatinine clearance, uric acid, and mean blood pressure.

  4. Long-term dietary heme iron and red meat intake in relation to endometrial cancer risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Genkinger, J.M.; Friberg, E.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Wolk, A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Heme and total iron, present in meat, have been hypothesized to promote carcinogenesis. Few prospective studies have examined the associations between intakes of heme and total iron, types of meat, and endometrial cancer risk. Objective: We evaluated the associations between intakes of h

  5. Signal-averaged P wave duration and the long-term risk of permanent atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixen, Ulrik; Larsen, Mette Vang; Ravn, Lasse Steen

    2008-01-01

    of permanent AF. The risk of permanent AF after 3 years follow-up was 0.72 with an SAPWD equal to 180 ms versus 0.39 with a normal SAPWD (130 ms). We found no prognostic effect of age, gender, dilated left atrium, long duration of AF history, or long duration of the most recent episode of AF. Co-existing...

  6. Long-term mortality and vascular event risk after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wermer, M. J. H.; Greebe, P.; Algra, A.; Rinkel, G. J. E.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Patients with a history of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) may be at risk for vascular events and excess mortality. Methods: We interviewed 752 patients ( mean age 50 years, 67% women, mean follow-up 8.1 years) clipped between 1985 and 2001 after SAH who had been discharged home or to a r

  7. Risk, liability, and economic issues with long-term CO2 storage—A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Steven T.

    2017-01-01

    Given a scarcity of commercial-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the risks, liability, and their cost implications for geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2). The probabilities of leakage and the risk of induced seismicity could be remote, but the volume of geologic CO2 storage (GCS) projected to be necessary to have a significant impact on increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is far greater than the volumes of CO2 injected thus far. National-level estimates of the technically accessible CO2storage resource (TASR) onshore in the United States are on the order of thousands of gigatons of CO2 storage capacity, but such estimates generally assume away any pressure management issues. Pressure buildup in the storage reservoir is expected to be a primary source of risk associated with CO2 storage, and only a fraction of the theoretical TASR could be available unless the storage operator extracts the saltwater brines or other formation fluids that are already present in the geologic pore space targeted for CO2 storage. Institutions, legislation, and processes to manage the risk, liability, and economic issues with CO2 storage in the United States are beginning to emerge, but will need to progress further in order to allow a commercial-scale CO2 storage industry to develop in the country. The combination of economic tradeoffs, property rights definitions, liability issues, and risk considerations suggests that CO2 storage offshore of the United States may be more feasible than onshore, especially during the current (early) stages of industry development.

  8. Model of the long-term transfer of radionuclides in forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    This report describes a model of the long-term behaviour in temperate and boreal forests of radionuclides entering the ecosystem with subsurface water. The model can be applied for most radionuclides that are of relevance in safety assessment of repositories for high-level radioactive waste. The model can be used for estimating radionuclide concentrations in soil, trees, understorey plants, mushrooms and forest mammals. A recommended (nominal) value and an interval of variation are provided for each model parameter and a classification of parameters by the degree of confidence in the values is given. Model testing against existing empirical data showing satisfactory results is also presented. Forests can play an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of radionuclides in the environment. Despite of this, forest ecosystems have not been addressed in previous safety assessments. This can be explained by the fact that a suitable model of the long-term transfer of a wide range of radionuclides in forests has not been readily available. The objective of this work was to develop a forest model applicable for a wide range of radionuclides of relevance for high level radioactive waste management (Am-241, Cl-36, Cs-135, I-129, Ni-59, Np-237, Pu-239, Ra-226, Sr-90, Tc-99, Th-232, U-238) that can potentially enter the ecosystem with contaminated groundwater. The model assumes that biomass growth, precipitation and evapo-transpiration drive the radionuclide cycling in the system by influencing the uptake of radionuclides by vegetation and their export from the system via runoff. The mathematical model of radionuclide transfer consists of a system of ordinary differential describing the mass balance in different forest compartments, taking into account the fluxes in and out from the compartment and the radionuclides decay. The fluxes between compartments are calculated by multiplying a transfer coefficient (TC) by the radionuclide inventory in the compartment

  9. Long-Term Lithium Use and Risk of Renal and Upper Urinary Tract Cancers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper; Jensen, Boye L;

    2015-01-01

    -term use of lithium and risk of upper urinary tract cancer, including renal cell cancer and cancers of the renal pelvis or ureter. We identified all histologically verified upper urinary tract cancer cases in Denmark between 2000 and 2012 from the Danish Cancer Registry. A total of 6477 cases were matched...... stratified by stage and subtype of upper urinary tract cancer revealed slight but nonsignificant increases in the ORs for localized disease (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.8-3.0) and for renal pelvis/ureter cancers (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.5-5.4). In conclusion, in our nationwide case-control study, use of lithium......Lithium induces proliferation in the epithelium of renal collecting ducts. A recent small-scale cohort study reported a strong association between use of lithium and increased risk of renal neoplasia. We therefore conducted a large-scale pharmacoepidemiologic study of the association between long...

  10. Gastric cancer risk in achlorhydric patients. A long-term follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Dahl, C; Svendsen, L B

    1986-01-01

    Achlorhydria, determined by the augmented histamine test, is the functional expression of the most severe atrophic gastritis and is followed by a 4- to 6-fold increased risk of gastric cancer, as we found 5 cancers in 114 patients after a mean observation period of 8.4 years. The cancers developed...... from 1 to 17 years after achlorhydria diagnosis--three cases after more than 9 years. The study showed no difference in gastric cancer risk between patients with and without pernicious anaemia. Spontaneous achlorhydria is the late result of atrophic gastritis, which should be regarded the premalignant...... condition. The development of gastric cancer from pharmacologically reduced acid secretion must be regarded as highly hypothetical, since this is not followed by atrophic gastritis....

  11. Long-term cancer risk after hysterectomy on benign indications: Population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altman, Daniel; Yin, Li; Falconer, Henrik

    2016-06-01

    Hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for adverse health effects. However, little is known about the association between hysterectomy and subsequent cancer occurrence later in life. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of hysterectomy on the incidence of cancer. In this population-based cohort study, we used data on 111,595 hysterectomized and 537,9843 nonhysterectomized women from nationwide Swedish Health Care registers including the Inpatient Register, the Cancer Register and the Cause of Death Register between 1973 and 2009. Hysterectomy with or without concomitant bilateral salpingo-ophorectomy (BSO) performed on benign indications was considered as exposure and incidence of primary cancers was used as outcome measure. Rare primary cancers (cancer was observed for women with previous hysterectomy and for those with hysterectomy and concurrent BSO (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91-0.95 and HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.96, respectively). Compared to nonhysterectomized women, significant risks were observed for thyroid cancer (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45-2.14). For both hysterectomy and hysterectomy with BSO, an association with brain cancer was observed (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.32-1.65 and HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.15-1.83, respectively). Hysterectomy, with or without BSO, was not associated with breast, lung or gastrointestinal cancer. We conclude that hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for thyroid and brain cancer later in life. Further research efforts are needed to identify patient groups at risk of malignancy following hysterectomy.

  12. Folic acid supplementation: what is new? Fetal, obstetric, long-term benefits and risks

    OpenAIRE

    Hind N. Moussa; Hosseini Nasab, Susan; Haidar, Ziad A; Blackwell, Sean C.; Baha M. Sibai

    2016-01-01

    The association between folic acid supplementation, prior to conception and/or during pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes, has been the subject of numerous studies. The worldwide recommendation of folic acid is at least 0.4 mg daily for all women of reproductive age, and 4–5 mg in high-risk women. In addition, evidence shows that folic acid supplementation could modulate other adverse pregnancy outcomes, specifically, in pregnancies complicated by seizure disorders, preeclampsia, anemia, fetal g...

  13. Is a Long Term Work in Automotive Industry a Risk Factor for Renal Dysfunction?

    OpenAIRE

    Assadi, Seyedeh Negar

    2015-01-01

    Background: Disorders of renal system can cause renal failure; therefore screening is necessary especially in workers who are exposed to harmful materials. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hazardous exposures are non-occupational and occupational risk factors for renal diseases. Aim: The objective of this study was to determine the effects of working in automotive industry on renal function in Iran. Subjects and Methods: In a historical cohort study, workers of automotive industry who wor...

  14. Modeling and Simulation of Long-Term Performance of Near-Surface Barriers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, S. J.; Jacobson, J. J.; Martian, P.; Martineau, R.; Soto, R.

    2003-02-25

    . Thus, the INEEL started a new project on long-term barrier integrity in April 2002 that aims to catalyze a Barrier Improvement Cycle (iterative learning and application) and thus enable Remediation System Performance Management (doing the right maintenance neither too early nor too late, prior to system-level failure). This paper describes our computer simulation approach for better understanding the relationships and dynamics between the various components and management decisions in a cap. The simulation is designed to clarify the complex relationships between the various components within the cap system and the various management practices that affect the barrier performance. We have also conceptualized a time-dependent 3-D simulation with rigorous solution to unsaturated flow physics with complex surface boundary conditions.

  15. Modeling and Simulation of Long-Term Performance of Near-Surface Barriers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Jacobson, Jacob Jordan; Soto, Rafael; Martian, Pete; Martineau, Richard Charles

    2003-02-01

    , the INEEL started a new project on long-term barrier integrity in April 2002 that aims to catalyze a Barrier Improvement Cycle (iterative learning and application) and thus enable Remediation System Performance Management (doing the right maintenance neither too early nor too late, prior to system-level failure). This paper describes our computer simulation approach for better understanding the relationships and dynamics between the various components and management decisions in a cap. The simulation is designed to clarify the complex relationships between the various components within the cap system and the various management practices that affect the barrier performance. We have also conceptualized a time-dependent 3-D simulation with rigorous solution to unsaturated flow physics with complex surface boundary conditions.

  16. Rapamycin restores BDNF-LTP and the persistence of long-term memory in a model of Down's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade-Talavera, Yuniesky; Benito, Itziar; Casañas, Juan José; Rodríguez-Moreno, Antonio; Montesinos, María Luz

    2015-10-01

    Down's syndrome (DS) is the most prevalent genetic intellectual disability. Memory deficits significantly contribute to the cognitive dysfunction in DS. Previously, we discovered that mTOR-dependent local translation, a pivotal process for some forms of synaptic plasticity, is deregulated in a DS mouse model. Here, we report that these mice exhibit deficits in both synaptic plasticity (i.e., BDNF-long term potentiation) and the persistence of spatial long-term memory. Interestingly, these deficits were fully reversible using rapamycin, a Food and Drug Administration-approved specific mTOR inhibitor; therefore, rapamycin may be a novel pharmacotherapy to improve cognition in DS.

  17. Documenting a long-term development model in the slums of Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Martha; Armstrong, Greg; Dayal, Prarthna; Kermode, Michelle

    2016-04-28

    Achieving development outcomes requires the inclusion of marginalised populations that have the least opportunity to participate in and benefit from development. Slum dwellers often see little of the 'urban advantage', suffering more from infectious diseases, increasing food costs, poor access to education and health care, inadequate water and sanitation, and informal employment. A recent Cochrane Review of the impact of slum upgrading strategies found a dearth of unbiased studies, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions. The Review calls for greater use of process data, and qualitative alongside quantitative methods of evaluation. India is a lower middle income nation with large gender disparities and around 65 million slum inhabitants. The Asha Community Health and Development Society, a non-governmental organisation based in Delhi, has delivered a multi-sectoral program across 71 slums since 1988. This article reports on a mixed-method study to document measureable health and social impacts, along with Asha's ethos and processes. Several observational visits were made to 12 Asha slums where informal discussions were had with staff and residents (n = 50). Asha data records were analysed for change over time (and differences with greater Delhi) in selected indicators (maternal-child health, education, child sex ratio) using descriptive statistics. 34 semi-structured individual/small group interviews and 14 focus group discussions were held with staff, residents, volunteers, elected officials, civil servants, bankers, diplomats, school principals, slumlords and loan recipients (n = 147). Key indicators of health and social equity improved over time and compared favourably with those for greater Delhi. The Asha model emphasises rights, responsibilities, equity and non-violence. It employs strategies characterised by long-term involvement, systematic protocols and monitoring, development of civil society (especially women's and children's groups) to

  18. Comparable long-term mortality risk associated with individual sulfonylureas in diabetes patients with heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Jørgensen, Casper H

    2011-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the outcomes of individual sulfonylureas in patients with heart failure (HF). Methods All patients hospitalized with HF for the first time in 1997–2006, alive 30 days after discharge, and who received anti-diabetic monotherapy with glimepiride (n = 1097), glibenclamide...... was not dependent on prior acute myocardial infarction or ischemic heart disease (p for interactions >0.3). Conclusions In current clinical practice, it is unlikely that there are considerable differences in risk of mortality associated with individual sulfonylureas in patients with heart failure....

  19. Risk factors of scabies in psychiatric and long-term care hospitals: a nationwide mail-in survey in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makigami, Kuniko; Ohtaki, Noriko; Ishii, Norihisa; Yasumura, Seiji

    2009-09-01

    Despite the commonness of scabies in Japanese institutional settings, the nationwide prevalence of scabies has not been elucidated. This study was conducted to assess the prevalence of scabies and control measures in Japanese hospitals. A questionnaire on scabies epidemiology (e.g. number of patients and onsets of outbreak) and preventive measures were sent to psychiatric hospitals and long-term care hospitals nationwide (n = 1795) in January 2005. Seven hundred and forty-one hospitals responded (41.3%). Three hundred and thirty-three (44.9%) respondent hospitals had one or more scabies cases in 2004. Among 159 hospitals that had experienced scabies outbreak, only 32 of them reported cases of crusted scabies. Multivariate regression analysis showed that hospitals had a greater number of beds, and that acute- and long-term care wards were more likely to experience scabies onsets. Hospitals that compiled their infection control manuals on scabies, treated suspicious patients with scabicides without confirmed diagnosis, and performed skin checkup of inpatients were more likely to experience scabies cases. Infection control personnel should be aware that unrecognized crusted scabies can cause outbreaks. Higher patient turnover is a risk factor for scabies introduction into a hospital. Preventive measures against scabies, such as patient screening at admission and treating all suspicious patients without confirmed diagnosis, were not effective to avoid scabies introduction.

  20. Modeling transient and long-term postseismic deformation: A case study of 1995 Mw9.5 Chile earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHAO Zhi-gang; FU Rong-shan; XUE Ting-xiao; ZHA Xian-jie

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we firstly use finite element method (FEM) with Burgers model to simulate the postseismic viscoe- lastic relaxation taking 1960 Chile earthquake as an example. The postseismic deformation modeled with Burgers model includes co-seismic deformation, transient postseismic deformation and long-term postseismic deformation. So if we apply Burgers model to calculate postseismic deformation of 1960 Chile earthquake, there is no discrep- ancy phenomenon due to different durations of postseismic deformations that happens in Maxwell model.

  1. Long-term use of angiotensin receptor blockers and the risk of cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Azoulay

    Full Text Available The association between angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs and cancer is controversial with meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials and observational studies reporting conflicting results. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine whether ARBs are associated with an overall increased risk of the four most common cancers, namely, lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers, and to explore these effects separately for each cancer type. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a nested case-control analysis within the United Kingdom (UK General Practice Research Database. We assembled a cohort of patients prescribed antihypertensive agents between 1995, the year the first ARB (losartan entered the UK market, and 2008, with follow-up until December 31, 2010. Cases were patients newly-diagnosed with lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancer during follow-up. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted rate ratios (RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of cancer incidence, comparing ever use of ARBs with ever use of diuretics and/or beta-blockers. The cohort included 1,165,781 patients, during which 41,059 patients were diagnosed with one of the cancers under study (rate 554/100,000 person-years. When compared to diuretics and/or beta-blockers, ever use of ARBs was not associated with an increased rate of cancer overall (RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96-1.03 or with each cancer site separately. The use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and calcium channel blockers was associated with an increased rate of lung cancer (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.06-1.20 and RR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12-1.27, respectively. This study provides additional evidence that the use of ARBs does not increase the risk of cancer overall or any of the four major cancer sites. Additional research is needed to further investigate a potentially increased risk of lung cancer with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and calcium channel blockers.

  2. Developing a long-term global tourism transport model using a behavioural approach: implications for sustainable tourism policy making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, P.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary.

  3. Seizures in the intrahippocampal kainic acid epilepsy model: Characterization using long-term video-EEG monitoring in the rat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Raedt; A. Van Dycke; D. Van Melkebeke; T. De Smedt; P. Claeys; T. Wyckhuys; K. Vonck; W. Wadman; P. Boon

    2009-01-01

    Objective - Intrahippocampal injection of kainic acid (KA) in rats evokes a status epilepticus (SE) and leads to spontaneous seizures. However to date, precise electroencephalographic (EEG) and clinical characterization of spontaneous seizures in this epilepsy model using long-term video-EEG monitor

  4. Developing a long-term global tourism transport model using a behavioural approach: implications for sustainable tourism policy making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, P.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary.

  5. A Derivation of the Long-Term Degradation of a Pulsed Atomic Frequency Standard from a Control-Loop Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhall, C. A.

    1996-01-01

    The phase of a frequency standard that uses periodic interrogation and control of a local oscillator (LO) is degraded by a long-term random-walk component induced by downconversion of LO noise into the loop passband. The Dick formula for the noise level of this degradation is derived from an explicit solution of an LO control-loop model.

  6. Factors predicting long-term survival in low-risk diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Michael B; Pedersen, Niels T; Christensen, Bjarne E

    2003-01-01

    population-based data from the Danish Lymphoma Group, we analyzed if prognostic clinical pretreatment factors could be identified in patients with low-risk DLBCL. One hundred seventy-seven patients, all with a prognostic profile as favorable as possible according to the IPI and treated with anthracycline-based...... combination chemotherapy (92%) or loco-regional radiotherapy/surgery (8%) with curative intent were included. The median age was 50 years and 170 achieved complete remission. The median follow-up time was 11 years. Twenty-six patients relapsed, with a median time to relapse of 12.1 months. Overall survival...... at 5 years and 10 years was 85% and 75%, respectively. Stage II was associated with poor response to treatment (P=0.044). In a multivariate analysis, Stage II (P=0.001) and age >50 years (P=0.043) were independently associated with poor outcome. Patients without these adverse factors had an excellent...

  7. Long term prognosis of fatty liver: risk of chronic liver disease and death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam-Larsen, S; Franzmann, M; Andersen, I B

    2004-01-01

    and the risk of death in a cohort diagnosed with pure fatty liver without inflammation. METHODS: A total of 215 patients who had a liver biopsy performed during the period 1976-1987 were included in the study. The population consisted of 109 non-alcoholic and 106 alcoholic fatty liver patients. Median follow...... of Patients and the nationwide Registry of Causes of Death, and all admissions, discharge diagnoses, and causes of death were obtained. RESULTS: In the non-alcoholic fatty liver group, one patient developed cirrhosis during the follow up period compared with 22 patients in the alcoholic group. Survival...... estimates were significantly (palcoholic fatty liver group. Survival estimates in the non-alcoholic fatty liver group were not different from the Danish population. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed...

  8. Transfusion-dependent low-risk myelodysplastic patients receiving deferasirox: Long-term follow-up

    Science.gov (United States)

    IMPROTA, SALVATORE; VILLA, MARIA ROSARIA; VOLPE, ANTONIO; LOMBARDI, ANGELA; STIUSO, PAOLA; CANTORE, NICOLA; MASTRULLO, LUCIA

    2013-01-01

    Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs) are characterized by ineffective hematopoiesis that results in peripheral cytopenias. Anemia is the most common symptom of MDS and the majority of patients become transfusion-dependent with the risk of iron overload, which may lead to cardiac, hepatic and endocrine complications. Deferasirox is an orally available iron chelator administered once-daily in transfusion-dependent patients with various chronic anemias. Its efficacy has been established in controlled clinical trials. In the present study, we describe our experience with 55 consecutive MDS patients [International Prognostic Scoring System risk score of low (n=32) or intermediate-1 (n=23)] treated with deferasirox in a routine clinical setting following Consensus Guidelines on Iron Chelation Therapy. According to WHO classifications, patients had refractory anemia (n=30), refractory anemia with ringed sideroblasts (n=16), refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia (n=8) or refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia and ringed sideroblasts (n=1). The median monthly transfusion requirement at baseline was 3 units. Patients received a starting dosage of 10 mg/kg/day, subsequently titrated according to serum ferritin (SF) levels which were measured monthly. Safety assessment included monitoring of liver and renal parameters and recording adverse events (AE) during treatment. At the baseline, the mean ± SD SF level was 2,362±172 ng/ml and after 24 months, the mean ± SD decrease in SF was 1,679±209 ng/ml. Sixteen patients had sustained hematological improvement meeting International Working Group 2006 criteria. One patient became transfusion-independent. No severe AE were reported. In conclusion, deferasirox therapy was effective and safe in reducing transfusional iron overload and it reduces transfusion requirement in a subset of patients. PMID:24260074

  9. The Long Term Fate of Our Digital Belongings: Toward a Service Model for Personal Archives

    OpenAIRE

    Marshall, Catherine C.; Bly, Sara; Brun-Cottan, Francoise

    2007-01-01

    We conducted a preliminary field study to understand the current state of personal digital archiving in practice. Our aim is to design a service for the long-term storage, preservation, and access of digital belongings by examining how personal archiving needs intersect with existing and emerging archiving technologies, best practices, and policies. Our findings not only confirmed that experienced home computer users are creating, receiving, and finding an increasing number of digital belongi...

  10. Febrile seizures: an appropriate-aged model suitable for long-term studies

    OpenAIRE

    1997-01-01

    Seizures induced by fever are the most prevalent age-specific seizures in infants and young children. Whether they result in long-term sequelae such as neuronal loss and temporal lobe epilepsy is controversial. Prospective studies of human febrile seizures have found no adverse effects on the developing brain. However, adults with temporal lobe epilepsy and associated limbic cell loss frequently have a history of prolonged febrile seizures in early life. These critical issues may be resolved ...

  11. Long-term modelling of nitrogen turnover and critical loads in a forested catchment using the INCA model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-J. Langusch

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Many forest ecosystems in Central Europe have reached the status of N saturation due to chronically high N deposition. In consequence, the NO3 leaching into ground- and surface waters is often substantial. Critical loads have been defined to abate the negative consequences of the NO3 leaching such as soil acidification and nutrient losses. The steady state mass balance method is normally used to calculate critical loads for N deposition in forest ecosystems. However, the steady state mass balance approach is limited because it does not take into account hydrology and the time until the steady state is reached. The aim of this study was to test the suitability of another approach: the dynamic model INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European Catchments. Long-term effects of changing N deposition and critical loads for N were simulated using INCA for the Lehstenbach spruce catchment (Fichtelgebirge, NE Bavaria, Germany under different hydrological conditions. Long-term scenarios of either increasing or decreasing N deposition indicated that, in this catchment, the response of nitrate concentrations in runoff to changing N deposition is buffered by a large groundwater reservoir. The critical load simulated by the INCA model with respect to a nitrate concentration of 0.4 mg N l–1 as threshold value in runoff was 9.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 compared to 10 kg ha–1yr–1 for the steady state model. Under conditions of lower precipitation (520 mm the resulting critical load was 7.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 , suggesting the necessity to account for different hydrological conditions when calculating critical loads. The INCA model seems to be suitable to calculate critical loads for N in forested catchments under varying hydrological conditions e.g. as a consequence of climate change. Keywords: forest ecosystem, N saturation, critical load, modelling, long-term scenario, nitrate leaching, critical loads reduction, INCA

  12. Cardiovascular Disease Risk Associated With the Long-term Use of Depot Medroxyprogesterone Acetate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilshad, Huma; Yousuf, Rabia Ismail; Shoaib, Mohammad Harris; Jamil, Subia; Khatoon, Humera

    2016-11-01

    Depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) contraception is widely used all over the world; however, it may lead to a decrease in high-density lipoproteins and an increase in low-density lipoproteins (LDL) and triglycerides. These changes in lipid profile have a direct effect on cardiovascular disease risk. This study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between DMPA use and lipid profile, and the effect of worsening of lipid profile on fasting blood glucose. The objective of the present study is to ascertain the effects of DMPA on lipid profiles and Castelli indices, and to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease in the women using progesterone-only methods for contraception. This was a multicenter case-control study including females of reproductive age. A total of 893 women were selected according to inclusion and exclusion criteria described below with the age range of 19-49 years. Among these, 477 were females who were beginning DMPA for contraception whereas 416 were the matched controls of same age and socioeconomic status. The lipid profiles, Castelli indices and fasting blood sugar were evaluated before initiation of DMPA and thereafter at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Controls were also analyzed for the same parameters in the same manner as that of treated group. The results were analyzed by repeated measure analysis of variance followed by Tukey׳s post hoc test for the multiple comparisons. The results showed statistically significant differences in all parameters of lipid profile, namely cholesterol (180.7 ± 38.8 versus 133.03 ± 14.8mg/dL, and P = 0.000), LDL (120.04 ± 36.2 versus 94.27 ± 19.6mg/dL, and P = 0.000), very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (24.6 ± 10.0 versus 20.99 ± 8.66mg/dL, and P = 0.000), high-density lipoprotein (39.67 ± 3.6 versus 44.13 ± 4.22mg/dL, and P = 0.000), total cholesterol (713.05 ± 110.2 versus 569.19 ± 80.4mg/dL, and P = 0.000), triglycerides (126.33 ± 48.8 versus 99.03 ± 30.6mg/dL, and P = 0

  13. Modeling the long-term durability of concrete barriers in the context of low-activity waste storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samson E.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the long-term durability of concrete barriers in contact with a cementitious wasteform designed to immobilize low-activity nuclear waste. The high-pH pore solution of the wasteform contains high concentration level of sulfate, nitrate, nitrite and alkalis. The multilayer concrete/wasteform system was modeled using a multiionic reactive transport model accounting for coupling between species, dissolution/ precipitation reactions, and feedback effect. One of the primary objectives was to investigate the risk associated with the presence of sulfate in the wasteform on the durability of concrete. Simulation results showed that formation of expansive phases, such as gypsum and ettringite, into the concrete barrier was not extensive. Based on those results, it was not possible to conclude that concrete would be severely damaged, even after 5,000 years. Lab work was performed to provide data to validate the modeling results. Paste samples were immersed in sulfate contact solutions and analyzed to measure the impact of the aggressive environment on the material. The results obtained so far tend to confirm the numerical simulations.

  14. Naringin Enhances CaMKII Activity and Improves Long-Term Memory in a Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong-Mei; Yang, Ya-Jun; Zhang, Li; Zhang, Xu; Guan, Fei-Fei; Zhang, Lian-Feng

    2013-03-11

    The Amyloid-β (Aβ)-induced impairment of hippocampal synaptic plasticity is an underlying mechanism of memory loss in the early stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in human and mouse models. The inhibition of the calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) autophosphorylation plays an important role in long-term memory. In this study, we isolated naringin from Pomelo peel (a Citrus species) and studied its effect on long-term memory in the APPswe/PS1dE9 transgenic mouse model of AD. Three-month-old APPswe/PS1dE9 transgenic mice were randomly assigned to a vehicle group, two naringin (either 50 or 100 mg/kg body weight/day) groups, or an Aricept (2 mg/kg body weight/day) group. After 16 weeks of treatment, we observed that treatment with naringin (100 mg/kg body weight/day) enhanced the autophosphorylation of CaMKII, increased the phosphorylation of the α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic (AMPA) receptor at a CaMKII-dependent site and improved long-term learning and memory ability. These findings suggest that the increase in CaMKII activity may be one of the mechanisms by which naringin improves long-term cognitive function in the APPswe/PS1dE9 transgenic mouse model of AD.

  15. Long-term oral sensitivity and feeding skills of low-risk pre-term infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodrill, Pamela; McMahon, Sandra; Ward, Elizabeth; Weir, Kelly; Donovan, Tim; Riddle, Bena

    2004-01-01

    This study examined the oral sensitivity and feeding skills of low-risk pre-term infants at 11-17 months corrected age. Twenty pre-term infants (PT) born between 32 and 37 weeks at birth without any medical comorbidities were assessed. All of this PT group received supplemental nasogastric (NG) tube feeds during their birth-stay in hospital. A matched control group of 10 healthy full-term infants (FT) was also assessed. Oral sensitivity and feeding skills were assessed during a typical mealtime using the Royal Children's Hospital Oral Sensitivity Checklist (OSC) and the Pre-Speech Assessment Scale (PSAS). Results demonstrated that, at 11-17 months corrected age, the PT group displayed significantly more behaviours suggestive of altered oral sensitivity and facial defensiveness, and a trend of more delayed feeding development than the FT group. Further, results demonstrated that, relative to the FT group, pre-term infants who received greater than 3 weeks of NG feeding (PT>3NG) displayed significantly more facial defensive behaviour, and displayed significant delays across more aspects of their feeding development than pre-term infants who received less than 2 weeks of NG feeding (PToral sensitivity and facial defensiveness, as well as feeding delays. These observations warrant further investigation on this topic.

  16. Effect of Genetic Polymorphisms and Long-Term Tobacco Exposure on the Risk of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verde, Zoraida; Santiago, Catalina; Chicharro, Luis Miguel; Reinoso-Barbero, Luis; Tejerina, Alejandro; Bandrés, Fernando; Gómez-Gallego, Félix

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Tobacco smoke contains many potentially harmful compounds that may act differently and at different stages in breast cancer development. The focus of this work was to assess the possible role of cigarette smoking (status, dose, duration or age at initiation) and polymorphisms in genes coding for enzymes involved in tobacco carcinogen metabolism (CYP1A1, CYP2A6) or in DNA repair (XRCC1, APEX1, XRCC3 and XPD) in breast cancer development. Methods: We designed a case control study with 297 patients, 217 histologically verified breast cancers (141 smokers and 76 non-smokers) and 80 healthy smokers in a cohort of Spanish women. Results: We found an association between smoking status and early age at diagnosis of breast cancer. Among smokers, invasive carcinoma subtype incidence increased with intensity and duration of smoking (all Ptrend cancer (OR = 7.12 (1.98–25.59)). Conclusions: Our results support the main effect of CYP1A1 in estrogenic metabolism rather than in tobacco carcinogen activation in breast cancer patients and also confirmed the hypothesis that CYP1A1 Ile462Val, in association with long periods of active smoking, could be a breast cancer risk factor. PMID:27754415

  17. Risk factors and long-term outcomes of parvovirus B19 infection in kidney transplant patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Chung Hee; Kim, Hyosang; Yang, Won Seok; Han, Duck Jong; Park, Su-Kil

    2017-10-01

    Parvovirus B19 is a small, non-enveloped, single-stranded DNA virus with a special affinity for the erythroid progenitor cells of the bone marrow. The first case of parvovirus B19 infection in a kidney transplant recipient (KTR) was reported in 1986. Data on the risk factors and specific clinical characteristics of parvovirus B19 infection remain insufficient. We screened 602 KTRs for parvovirus B19 infection using parvovirus B19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from January 1990 to April 2016, and the clinical characteristics of patients with positive results were compared to those of age- and gender-matched patients with negative PCR results. A total of 39 KTRs tested positive for parvovirus B19, and they were compared to 78 age- and gender-matched patients among 563 KTRs who had negative PCR results. In all, 89.7% of positive cases were reported within the first year after kidney transplantation. In multivariate analyses, deceased-donor kidney transplantation (odds ratio [OR] 9.067, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.668-49.275, P = .011), use of tacrolimus (OR 3.607, 95% CI 1.024-12.706, P = .046), PCR test within 1 year of kidney transplantation (OR 12.456, 95% CI 2.674-58.036, P = .001), and hemoglobin levels (OR 0.559, 95% CI 0.351-0.889, P = .014) showed significant correlations with parvovirus B19 infection. Graft survival did not differ between the two groups during the follow-up period of 111.68 ± 54.54 months (P = .685 by log-rank test). The identification of factors related to positive parvovirus B19 PCR results may promote the early detection of parvovirus B19 infection. Further studies are needed to elucidate the characteristics of parvovirus B19 infection in kidney transplantation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. The long-term risk of malignant astrocytic tumors after structural brain injury--a nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch, Tina Noergaard; Gørtz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Neoplastic transformation of damaged astrocytes has been proposed as a possible pathological mechanism behind malignant astrocytic tumors. This study investigated the association between structural brain injuries causing reactive astrogliosis and long-term risk for malignant astrocytic...... tumors. METHODS: The cohort consisted of all individuals living in Denmark between 1978 and 2011. The personal identification number assigned to all individuals allowed retrieval of diagnoses of traumatic brain injury, cerebral ischemic infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage from the National Patient...... Discharge Register. Diagnoses of anaplastic astrocytoma and glioblastoma multiforme (World Health Organization grades III and IV) were retrieved from the Danish Cancer Registry. Rate ratios (RR's) were estimated using log-linear Poisson regression. RESULTS: In a cohort of 8.2 million individuals, 404 812...

  19. Long-term aspirin does not lower risk of stroke and increases bleeding risk in low risk atrial fibrillation ablation patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Victoria; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler DO, Michael J; Day, John D; Mallender, Charles; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Weiss, J Peter; Bunch, T Jared

    2017-08-28

    Stroke risk is a significant concern in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Low stroke risk patients (CHADS2 VASc 0-2) are often treated long-term with aspirin after catheter ablation. Defining the long-term risks versus benefits of aspirin therapy, after an ablation, is essential to validate this common clinical approach. A total of 4,124 AF ablation patients undergoing their index ablation were included in this retrospective observational study. We compared 1- and 3-year outcomes for cerebrovascular accident (CVA), transient ischemic attack (TIA), gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, genitourinary (GU) bleeding, any bleeding, and AF recurrence among patients receiving: none, aspirin, or warfarin as long-term therapies. Patient distribution by CHADS2 VASc scores was as follows; 0: 1,143 (28%), 1: 1,588 (39%), and 2: 1,393 (34%). Significantly higher incidents of: female gender, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and vascular disease were seen with higher CHADS2 VASc scores (p < 0.0001 for all). At 3 years, 238 (5.9%) patients were on warfarin, 743 (18.6) on aspirin, and 3,013 (75.5%) on no therapy; with occurrences of CVA/TIA (1.4%, 3.0%, 3.9%, p < 0.0001, respectively), gastrointestinal bleeding (GI) (0.8%, 1.9%, 1.1%, p = 0.06, respectively), and genitourinary (GU) bleeding (1.7%, 2.8%, 2.1%, p = 0.008, respectively) that increased with advancing CHA2 DS2 VASc score. There was a significantly increased risk for both CVA/TIA with aspirin therapy, when compared to no therapy or warfarin therapy in general, and across all CHA2 DS2 VASc scores. After catheter ablation, low risk patients do not benefit from long-term aspirin therapy, but are at risk for higher rates of bleeding when compared to no therapy or warfarin. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  20. Long-Term Effects of Ambient PM2.5 on Hypertension and Blood Pressure and Attributable Risk Among Older Chinese Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hualiang; Guo, Yanfei; Zheng, Yang; Di, Qian; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Zeng, Weilin; Cummings-Vaughn, Lenise A; Howard, Steven W; Vaughn, Michael G; Qian, Zhengmin Min; Ma, Wenjun; Wu, Fan

    2017-05-01

    Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) has been associated with cardiovascular diseases. Hypertension, a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, has also been hypothesized to be linked to PM2.5 However, epidemiological evidence has been mixed. We examined long-term association between ambient PM2.5 and hypertension and blood pressure. We interviewed 12 665 participants aged 50 years and older and measured their blood pressures. Annual average PM2.5 concentrations were estimated for each community using satellite data. We applied 2-level logistic regression models to examine the associations and estimated hypertension burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 For each 10 μg/m(3) increase in ambient PM2.5, the adjusted odds ratio of hypertension was 1.14 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.22). Stratified analyses found that overweight and obesity could enhance the association, and consumption of fruit was associated with lower risk. We further estimated that 11.75% (95% confidence interval, 5.82%-18.53%) of the hypertension cases (corresponding to 914, 95% confidence interval, 453-1442 cases) could be attributable to ambient PM2.5 in the study population. Findings suggest that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 might be an important risk factor of hypertension and is responsible for significant hypertension burden in adults in China. A higher consumption of fruit may mitigate, whereas overweight and obesity could enhance this effect. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Evaluating long-term annual sediment yield estimating potential of GIS interfaced MUSLE model on two micro-watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arekhi, Saleh

    2008-01-15

    Use of an event scale MUSLE model for obtaining accurate long-term annual sediment yield estimates from micro-watersheds was evaluated. Such estimates are extremely important for designing appropriate soil/water conserving measures. For easy extraction and inputting of model input parameters, the proposed model was interfaced to an Arc-View/Spatial Analyst geographic information system. Application of this GIS interfaced MUSLE model on two gauged (pine and oak forest) hilly micro-watersheds viz., Salla Rautella (0.47 km2) and Naula (0.42 km2), in Almora district of Uttaranchal, India showed that it could estimate annual sediment yields with absolute mean relative errors ranging between 12-14%. Even long-term average sediment yields for Salla Rautella (observed: 9.58 tons and estimated: 10.92 tons) and Naula: (Observed: 23.89 tons and estimated: 26.61 tons) micro-watersheds could be quite realistically simulated by the proposed model.

  2. Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farzan, Shohreh F.; Chen, Yu; Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot; Karagas, Margaret R.

    2015-01-01

    High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic’s effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. PMID:26048586

  3. Risk factors for recurrence of scabies: a retrospective study of scabies patients in a long-term care hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makigami, Kuniko; Ohtaki, Noriko; Ishii, Norihisa; Tamashiro, Tetsuko; Yoshida, Sadao; Yasumura, Seiji

    2011-09-01

    A considerable number of patients suffer recurrence of scabies. To elucidate risk factors for recurrence of scabies, we compared patients who experienced scabies recurrence and those who suffered scabies only once. We conducted a retrospective review of medical records of all scabies patients in a long-term care hospital for the elderly (300 beds; six wards) for a period of 42 months to determine frequency of scabies onsets, underlying diseases, history of treatment, and demographic data such as age and sex. One hundred and forty-eight patients and five hospital staff members suffered scabies during the 42-month study period. All staff members and 98 patients had no recurrence, while 50 patients experienced at least one recurrence of scabies. The cumulative number of scabies diagnoses was 228. The rates of scabies onset and recurrence were considerably different among wards. The dementia unit showed the highest rate of onset and recurrence. In addition to frequent exposure to infectious sources, problematic behavior, such as lying in other patients beds, might cause the high recurrence rate in dementia units. Higher serum total lymphocyte count and topical use of γ-benzene hexachloride were associated with lower risk of scabies recurrence. Recurrence of scabies is not uncommon among elderly patients in institutional settings. Impaired immunity may be a risk factor for recurrence of scabies. Groups with a high onset rate of scabies pose a high likelihood of recurrence. Problematic behavior of demented patients may increase the risk of recurrence. Use of effective topical treatment may effectively prevent recurrence.

  4. Long-term use of cellular phones and brain tumours: increased risk associated with use for > or =10 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardell, Lennart; Carlberg, Michael; Söderqvist, Fredrik; Mild, Kjell Hansson; Morgan, L Lloyd

    2007-09-01

    To evaluate brain tumour risk among long-term users of cellular telephones. Two cohort studies and 16 case-control studies on this topic were identified. Data were scrutinised for use of mobile phone for > or =10 years and ipsilateral exposure if presented. The cohort study was of limited value due to methodological shortcomings in the study. Of the 16 case-control studies, 11 gave results for > or =10 years' use or latency period. Most of these results were based on low numbers. An association with acoustic neuroma was found in four studies in the group with at least 10 years' use of a mobile phone. No risk was found in one study, but the tumour size was significantly larger among users. Six studies gave results for malignant brain tumours in that latency group. All gave increased odd ratios (OR), especially for ipsilateral exposure. In a meta-analysis, ipsilateral cell phone use for acoustic neuroma was OR = 2.4 (95% CI 1.1 to 5.3) and OR = 2.0, (1.2 to 3.4) for glioma using a tumour latency period of > or =10 years. Results from present studies on use of mobile phones for > or =10 years give a consistent pattern of increased risk for acoustic neuroma and glioma. The risk is highest for ipsilateral exposure.

  5. Long-term effectiveness of irreversible electroporation in a murine model of colorectal liver metastasis

    OpenAIRE

    Ivorra Cano, Antoni; Sánchez Velázquez, Patricia; Castellví, Quim; Villanueva, Alberto; Iglesias Coma, Mar; Quesada Diez, Rita; Pañella-Vilamú, Clara; Cáceres Aguilar, Mario; Dorcaratto, Dimitri; Andaluz, Anna; Moll, Xavier; Burdío, José Miguel; Grande Posa, Luís; Burdío Pinilla, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    Irreversible electroporation (IRE) has recently gained in popularity as an ablative technique, however little is known about its oncological long-term outcomes. To determine the long-time survival of animals treated with a high dose of IRE and which histological changes it induces in tumoral tissue, IRE ablation was performed in forty-six athymic-nude mice with KM12C tumors implanted in the liver by applying electric current with different voltages (2000 V/cm, 1000 V/cm). The tumors were allo...

  6. Modeling long-term yield trends of Miscanthusxgiganteus using experimental data from across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lesur, Claire; Jeuffroy, Marie-Hélène; Makowski, David;

    2013-01-01

    Miscanthus × giganteus is a perennial grass that is considered to have a high feedstock potential for bioenergy production. Assessment of that potential is however highly related to the crop yields and to their change through the crop lifetime, which is expected to be longer than 20 years. M....... giganteus is known to have an establishment phase during which annual yields increased as a function of crop age, followed by a ceiling phase, the duration of which is unknown. We built a database including 16 European long-term experiments (i) to describe the yield evolution during the establishment...

  7. Investigation of long-term implantation of BuMA stent in a porcine coronary model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; WANG Xin-gang; ZHENG Bo; PENG Hong-yu; Zhang Xiao-yan; ZHANG Bin; HUO Yong

    2012-01-01

    Background Stent-based delivery of sirolimus has been shown to reduce neointimal hyperplasia significantly.However,the long-term effect of the polymer is thought to initiate and sustain an inflammatory response and contribute to the occurrence of late complications.Our study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the BuMA biodegradable drug-coated sirolimus-eluting stent(BSES)for inhibiting neointimal hyperplasia in a porcine coronary model.Methods Four types of stents were implanted at random in different coronary arteries of the same pig:BSES(n=24),bare metal stent(BMS)(n=24),biodegradable polymer coated stent without drug(PCS)(n=24)and only poly(n-butyl methacrylate)base layer coated stent(EGS)(n=23).In total,26 animals underwent successful random placement of 95 oversized stents in the coronary arteries.Coronary angiography was performed after 28 days,90 days and 240 days of stent implantation.After 14 days,28 days,90 days and 240 days,6 animals at each timepoint were sacrificed for histomorphologic analysis.Results The 28-day,90-day and 240-day results of quantitative coronary angiography(QCA)showed reduction in luminal loss(LL)in the BSES group when compared with the BMS group;(0.20±0.35)mm vs.(0.82±0.51)mm(P=0.035),(0.20±0.30)mm vs.(0.93±0.51)mm(P=0.013),and(0.18±0.16)mm vs.(0.19±0.24)mm(P=0.889),respectively.By 28-day,90-day and 240-day histomorphomeric analysis results,there was also a corresponding significant reduction in neointimal tissue proliferation with similar injury scores of BSES compared with the BMS control;average neointimal area(0.90±0.49)mm2 vs.(2.16±1.29)mm2(P=0.049),(1.53±0.84)mm2 vs.(3.41±1.55)mm2(P=0.026),and(2.43±0.95)mm2 vs.(3.12±1.16)mm2(P=0.228),respectively.High magnification histomorphologic examination revealed similar inflammation scores and endothelialization scores in both the BSES and BMS groups.Conclusions The BuMA biodegradable drug-coated sirolimus-eluting stents can significantly reduce neointimal

  8. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Chen [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Gupta, Vipul [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Huang, Shenyan [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Soare, Monica [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Zhao, Pengyang [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Wang, Yunzhi [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States)

    2017-02-28

    The goal of this project is to model long-term creep performance for nickel-base superalloy weldments in high temperature power generation systems. The project uses physics-based modeling methodologies and algorithms for predicting alloy properties in heterogeneous material structures. The modeling methodology will be demonstrated on a gas turbine combustor liner weldment of Haynes 282 precipitate-strengthened nickel-base superalloy. The major developments are: (1) microstructure-property relationships under creep conditions and microstructure characterization (2) modeling inhomogeneous microstructure in superalloy weld (3) modeling mesoscale plastic deformation in superalloy weld and (4) a constitutive creep model that accounts for weld and base metal microstructure and their long term evolution. The developed modeling technology is aimed to provide a more efficient and accurate assessment of a material’s long-term performance compared with current testing and extrapolation methods. This modeling technology will also accelerate development and qualification of new materials in advanced power generation systems. This document is a final technical report for the project, covering efforts conducted from October 2014 to December 2016.

  9. Medium Increased Risk for Central Sleep Apnea but Not Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Long-Term Opioid Users: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filiatrault, Marie-Lou; Chauny, Jean-Marc; Daoust, Raoul; Roy, Marie-Pier; Denis, Ronald; Lavigne, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Study Objective: Opioids are associated with higher risk for ataxic breathing and sleep apnea. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to assess the influence of long-term opioid use on the apnea-hypopnea and central apnea indices (AHI and CAI, respectively). Methods: A systematic review protocol (Cochrane Handbook guidelines) was developed for the search and analysis. We searched Embase, Medline, ACP Journal Club, and Cochrane Database up to November 2014 for three topics: (1) narcotics, (2) sleep apnea, and (3) apnea-hypopnea index. The outcome of interest was the variation in AHI and CAI in opioid users versus non-users. Two reviewers performed the data search and extraction, and disagreements were resolved by discussion. Results were combined by standardized mean difference using a random effect model, and heterogeneity was tested by χ2 and presented as I2 statistics. Results: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 803 patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We compared 2 outcomes: AHI (320 opioid users and 483 non-users) and 790 patients with CAI (315 opioid users and 475 non-users). The absolute effect size for opioid use was a small increased in apnea measured by AHI = 0.25 (95% CI: 0.02–0.49) and a medium for CAI = 0.45 (95% CI: 0.27–0.63). Effect consistency across studies was calculated, showing moderate heterogeneity at I2 = 59% and 29% for AHI and CAI, respectively. Conclusions: The meta-analysis results suggest that long-term opioid use in OSA patients has a medium effect on central sleep apnea. Citation: Filiatrault ML, Chauny JM, Daoust R, Roy MP, Denis R, Lavigne G. Medium increased risk for central sleep apnea but not obstructive sleep apnea in long-term opioid users: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(4):617–625. PMID:26943709

  10. The clearance of oral high-risk human papillomavirus infection is impaired by long-term persistence of cervical human papillomavirus infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louvanto, K; Rautava, J; Syrjänen, K; Grénman, S; Syrjänen, S

    2014-11-01

    Persistence of high-risk (HR-) human papillomavirus (HPV) infection of the uterine cervix increases the risk of cervical cancer. Oral HPV infections are among potential covariates of long-term genotype-specific persistent cervical HR-HPV infections. It is not known whether this persistence reflects inability of the host to reject HPV infections in general. A case-control setting was designed to estimate the covariates of long-term persistent cervical HR-HPV infections using multivariate generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. HPV was detected with PCR using GP05+/GP06+-primers and genotyped for 24 HPVs with a Multimetrix-kit. The cases (n=43) included women who had genotype-specific persistent cervical HR-HPV infection for at least 24 months (24M+) and controls were women who tested repeatedly HPV-negative in their cervical samples (n=52). These women represent a sub-cohort of the Finnish Family HPV Study. The cases differed significantly from the HPV-negative controls in several aspects: they were younger, had a longer mean time to incident oral HPV infection (40.7 versus 23.6 months), longer duration of oral HPV persistence (38.4 versus 14.1 months), and longer time to clearance of their oral HPV infection (50.0 versus 28.2 months). In multivariate GEE analysis, the second pregnancy during the follow up was the only independent predictor with significant protective effect against 24M+ persistent cervical HR-HPV infections, OR of 0.15 (95% CI 0.07-0.34). To conclude, long-term persistent cervical HR-HPV infections are associated with a prolonged clearance of oral HR-HPV infections while new pregnancy protects against persistent cervical HR-HPV infections. © 2014 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2014 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  11. Long term gluten consumption in adults without celiac disease and risk of coronary heart disease: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebwohl, Benjamin; Cao, Yin; Zong, Geng; Hu, Frank B; Green, Peter H R; Neugut, Alfred I; Rimm, Eric B; Sampson, Laura; Dougherty, Lauren W; Giovannucci, Edward; Willett, Walter C; Sun, Qi; Chan, Andrew T

    2017-05-02

    Objective To examine the association of long term intake of gluten with the development of incident coronary heart disease.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting and participants 64 714 women in the Nurses' Health Study and 45 303 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study without a history of coronary heart disease who completed a 131 item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire in 1986 that was updated every four years through 2010.Exposure Consumption of gluten, estimated from food frequency questionnaires.Main outcome measure Development of coronary heart disease (fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction).Results During 26 years of follow-up encompassing 2 273 931 person years, 2431 women and 4098 men developed coronary heart disease. Compared with participants in the lowest fifth of gluten intake, who had a coronary heart disease incidence rate of 352 per 100 000 person years, those in the highest fifth had a rate of 277 events per 100 000 person years, leading to an unadjusted rate difference of 75 (95% confidence interval 51 to 98) fewer cases of coronary heart disease per 100 000 person years. After adjustment for known risk factors, participants in the highest fifth of estimated gluten intake had a multivariable hazard ratio for coronary heart disease of 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.88 to 1.02; P for trend=0.29). After additional adjustment for intake of whole grains (leaving the remaining variance of gluten corresponding to refined grains), the multivariate hazard ratio was 1.00 (0.92 to 1.09; P for trend=0.77). In contrast, after additional adjustment for intake of refined grains (leaving the variance of gluten intake correlating with whole grain intake), estimated gluten consumption was associated with a lower risk of coronary heart disease (multivariate hazard ratio 0.85, 0.77 to 0.93; P for trend=0.002).Conclusion Long term dietary intake of gluten was not associated with risk of coronary heart disease. However, the

  12. Cardiovascular risk factors in children after kidney transplantation--from short-term to long-term follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaidar, Maital; Berant, Michael; Krauze, Irit; Cleper, Roxana; Mor, Eitan; Bar-Nathan, Nathan; Davidovits, Miriam

    2014-02-01

    Cardiovascular-related mortality is 100-fold higher in pediatric renal transplant recipients than in the age-matched general population. Seventy-seven post-renal transplant children's charts were reviewed for cardiovascular risk factors at two and six months after transplantation (short term) and at two yr after transplantation and the last follow-up visit (mean 7.14 ± 3.5 yr) (long term). Significant reduction was seen in cardiovascular risk factors prevalence from two months after transplantation to last follow-up respectively: Hypertension from 52.1% to 14%, hypercholesterolemia from 48.7% to 33%, hypertriglyceridemia from 50% to 12.5%, anemia from 29.6% to 18.3%, hyperparathyroidism from 32% to 18.3% and hyperglycemia from 11.7% to 10%, and left ventricular hypertrophy from 25.8% at short term to 15%. There was an increase in the prevalence of obesity from 1.5% to 3.9% and of CKD 3-5 from 4.75% to 24%. The need for antihypertensive treatment decreased from 54% to 42%, and the percentage of patients controlled by one medication rose from 26% to 34%, whereas the percentage controlled by 2, 3, and 4 medications decreased from 21.9%, 5.5%, and 1.4% to 6%, 2%, and 0. Children after renal transplantation appear to have high rates of cardiovascular risk factors, mainly on short-term follow-up.

  13. Development of a Compound Distribution Markov Chain Model for Stochastic Generation of Rainfall with Long Term Persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George

    2015-04-01

    One of the overriding issues in the rainfall simulation is the underestimation of observed rainfall variability in longer timescales (e.g. monthly, annual and multi-year), which usually results into under-estimation of reservoir reliability in urban water planning. This study has developed a Compound Distribution Markov Chain (CDMC) model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall. We used two parameters of Markov Chain process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) for simulating rainfall occurrence and two parameters of gamma distribution (calculated from mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall) for simulating wet-day rainfall amounts. While two models with deterministic parameters underestimated long term variability, our investigation found that the long term variability of rainfall in the model is predominantly governed by the long term variability of gamma parameters, rather than the variability of Markov Chain parameters. Therefore, in the third approach, we developed the CDMC model with deterministic parameters of Markov Chain process, but stochastic parameters of gamma distribution by sampling the mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall from their log-normal and bivariate-normal distribution. We have found that the CDMC is able to replicate both short term and long term rainfall variability, when we calibrated the model at two sites in east coast of Australia using three types of daily rainfall data - (1) dynamically downscaled, 10 km resolution gridded data produced by NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, (2) 5 km resolution gridded data by Australian Water Availability Project and (3) point scale raingauge stations data by Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. We also examined the spatial variability of parameters and their link with local orography at our field site. The suitability of the model in runoff generation and urban reservoir-water simulation will be discussed.

  14. Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

    2016-04-01

    The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  15. Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression models: a tool to detect trajectory divergence between groups in long-term observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buscot, Marie-Jeanne; Wotherspoon, Simon S; Magnussen, Costan G; Juonala, Markus; Sabin, Matthew A; Burgner, David P; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma S A; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Raitakari, Olli T; Thomson, Russell J

    2017-06-06

    Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) modeling has not been previously formulated to detect and characterise the mechanism of trajectory divergence between groups of participants that have longitudinal responses with distinct developmental phases. These models are useful when participants in a prospective cohort study are grouped according to a distal dichotomous health outcome. Indeed, a refined understanding of how deleterious risk factor profiles develop across the life-course may help inform early-life interventions. Previous techniques to determine between-group differences in risk factors at each age may result in biased estimate of the age at divergence. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) to generate a point estimate and credible interval for the age at which trajectories diverge between groups for continuous outcome measures that exhibit non-linear within-person response profiles over time. We illustrate our approach by modeling the divergence in childhood-to-adulthood body mass index (BMI) trajectories between two groups of adults with/without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (YFS). Using the proposed BHPR approach, we estimated the BMI profiles of participants with T2DM diverged from healthy participants at age 16 years for males (95% credible interval (CI):13.5-18 years) and 21 years for females (95% CI: 19.5-23 years). These data suggest that a critical window for weight management intervention in preventing T2DM might exist before the age when BMI growth rate is naturally expected to decrease. Simulation showed that when using pairwise comparison of least-square means from categorical mixed models, smaller sample sizes tended to conclude a later age of divergence. In contrast, the point estimate of the divergence time is not biased by sample size when using the proposed BHPR method. BHPR is a powerful analytic tool to model long-term non

  16. Reactive transport modeling of long-term secondary water quality impacts of a crude oil spill at Bemidji, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, G. C.; Bekins, B. A.; Cozzarelli, I.; Baedecker, M. J.; Amos, R. T.

    2012-12-01

    The groundwater impacts from a crude oil pipeline rupture in 1979 near Bemidji, Minnesota, have been continuously and intensively investigated for almost 30 years. Previous studies on the resulting plume have significantly contributed to the understanding of natural attenuation processes. The Bemidji site also offers valuable insights on the potential long-term impacts caused by anaerobic bioremediation approaches such as electron donor addition. There has been increased concern about the "secondary impacts" of electron donor addition - including groundwater plumes with reduced dissolved oxygen and elevated levels of methane and other dissolved inorganic components - yet long term information is not yet available at remediation sites. Bemidji provides an example of long term water quality changes resulting from anaerobic biodegradation. While previous Bemidji modeling efforts have largely focused on the fate of the crude oil, we provide a modeling study that aims to also properly represent further evolution of the plume. This requires more comprehensive modeling than has been previously carried out at the site. We have implemented the reactive transport model PHT3D for 2-dimensional simulations that include not only kinetic degradation of organic carbon via redox reactions, but also represent mineral phases, sorption processes, out-gassing of methane and CO2, full carbonate chemistry, and re-oxidation reactions. The model is constrained using a full suite of observations on various oil constituents and dissolved and solid components that span the 30 years since the spill - a uniquely extensive data set on long term conditions. The secondary impacts at Bemidji consist of a plume containing significant methane, depleted dissolved oxygen, and dissolved iron. Our work demonstrates that the secondary plume evolution is very sensitive to the proper characterization of the electron donor (organic carbon) source, naturally-occurring mineral electron acceptors, and

  17. Travelling beyond the current frontiers: Perioperative and long-term cardiac risk assessment and management of patients undergoing major vascular surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. Kertai (Miklos)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractIn this thesis, the prognostic value of clinical risk factors, the use of noninvasive testing for risk stratification, and pharmacologic risk reduction strategies are described for the perioperative and long-term management of patients undergoing major vascular surgery.

  18. Risk and fate of residual interatrial shunting after transcatheter closure of patent foramen ovale: a long term follow up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammerstingl C

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Percutaneous transcatheter closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO in cryptogenic stroke is an alternative to medical therapy. There is still debate on different outcome for each currently available device. The impact of residual shunting after PFO-clo- sure on recurrent arterial embolism is unknown. Aims (i To evaluate the prevalence of residual interatrial shunting after device- closure of PFO, (ii to identify risk factors predicting residual interatrial shunting after device implantation, and (iii to investigate the outcome of patients after PFO-closure during long- term follow- up (FU. Methods and results Between 2000- 2005 PFO-closure was performed in 124 patients using four different devices: Amplatzer PFO-(n = 52, CardioSeal (n = 33, Helex (n = 23 and Premere (n = 16 occluder. All patients underwent serial contrast-enhanced transesophageal echocardiography (TEE for 24 months after PFO- closure; clinical FU was at minimum 5 years up to 9.75 years (mean 6.67 ± 1.31 years. Overall-closure rate was 87% at 2 years, device-specific closure time curves differed significantly (p-logrank = 0.003. Independent risk factors for residual-shunting were implantation of a Helex occluder (hazard ratio [HR] 12.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6- 57.4, p = 0.002, PFO- canal- lengths (HR 1.2, 95%CI 1.1- 1.3, p = 0.004 and extend of atrial-septal-aneurysm (HR 1.1, 95%CI 0.9- 1.3; p = 0.05. 4 (3.2% arterial embolic events occurred during a FU-period of 817.2 patient-years, actuarial annual thromboembolic-risk was 0.49%. All ischemic events were not related to residual PFO-shunting or device-related thrombus- formation. Conclusion Success rates of PFO- closure are mainly dependent on occluder-type, extend of concomitant atrial-septum-aneurysm and PFO-canal- length. Importantly, residual shunting after PFO-closure was not associated with recurrence of arterial embolism during long-term follow-up.

  19. Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Miller, Scott; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Archer, Erik; Roper, Brett B.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of

  20. Long term contaminant migration and impacts from uranium mill tailings. Comparison of computer models using a hypothetical dataset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camus, H. [CEA Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires de Fontenay-aux-Roses (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire] [and others

    1995-11-01

    The Uranium Mill Tailings Working Group of BIOMOVS II was initiated in Vienna in 1991 with the primary objective of comparing models which can be used to assess the long term impact of radioactive releases from uranium mill tailings, involving multiple pathways, multiple contaminants and multiple environmental receptors. A secondary objective was to examine how these models can be used to assess the fate of stable toxic elements. This is an interim report of the Working Group describing: development of a basic scenario describing a tailings system; application of models in deterministic calculations of contaminant concentrations in biosphere media, and related radiation doses, contaminant intakes and health risks; comparison of model results and review of the modelling. A hypothetical scenario has been developed for contaminant releases from a uranium mill tailings facility. The assumptions for the tailings facility and its environs have been chosen to facilitate the evaluation of potentially important processes incorporated into models. The site description is therefore idealised and does not represent any particular facility or type of facility. Atmospheric and groundwater release source terms have been chosen to facilitate comparison of models and should not be considered realistic. The time and effort taken over derivation of the scenario description and the associated preliminary modelling has been an important and valuable learning exercise. It also reflects the importance of gaining a clear picture of what is being modelled so that comparisons of model results are meaningful. Work within the exercise has contributed to new model development and to improvements and extensions to existing models. The scenario is a simplified description of a real facility and the releases which might occur. No allowance has been made for engineered features on the tailings disposal system which might reduce releases. The source terms have been chosen so as to test the models

  1. A Prospective Study of Long-term Intake of Dietary Fiber and Risk of Crohn’s Disease and Ulcerative Colitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.; Khalili, Hamed; Konijeti, Gauree G.; Higuchi, Leslie M.; de Silva, Punyanganie; Korzenik, Joshua R.; Fuchs, Charles S.; Willett, Walter C.; Richter, James M.; Chan, Andrew T.

    2013-01-01

    Background & Aims Increased intake of dietary fiber has been proposed to reduce risk of inflammatory bowel diseases (Crohn’s disease [CD], ulcerative colitis [UC]). However, few prospective studies have examined associations between long-term intake of dietary fiber and risk of incident CD or UC. Methods We collected and analyzed data from 170,776 women, followed over 26 y, who participated in the Nurses’ Health Study, followed for 3,317,425 person-y. Dietary information was prospectively ascertained via administration of a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire every 4 y. Self-reported CD and UC were confirmed through review of medical records. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for potential confounders, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). Results We confirmed 269 incident cases of CD (incidence 8/100,000 person-y) and 338 cases of UC (incidence 10/100,000 person-y). Compared to the lowest quintile of energy-adjusted cumulative average intake of dietary fiber, intake of the highest quintile (median of 24.3 g/day) was associated with a 40% reduction in risk of CD (multivariate HR for CD, 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39–0.90). This apparent reduction appeared to be greatest for fiber derived from fruits; fiber from cereals, whole grains, or legumes did not modify risk. In contrast, neither total intake of dietary fiber (multivariate HR, 0.82; 95% CI 0.58–1.17) nor intake of fiber from specific sources appeared to be significantly associated with risk of UC. Conclusion Based on data from the Nurses’ Health Study, long-term intake of dietary fiber, particularly from fruit, is associated with lower risk of CD but not UC. Further studies are needed to determine the mechanisms that mediate this association. PMID:23912083

  2. The Long Term Fate of Our Digital Belongings: Toward a Service Model for Personal Archives

    CERN Document Server

    Marshall, Catherine C; Brun-Cottan, Francoise

    2007-01-01

    We conducted a preliminary field study to understand the current state of personal digital archiving in practice. Our aim is to design a service for the long-term storage, preservation, and access of digital belongings by examining how personal archiving needs intersect with existing and emerging archiving technologies, best practices, and policies. Our findings not only confirmed that experienced home computer users are creating, receiving, and finding an increasing number of digital belongings, but also that they have already lost irreplaceable digital artifacts such as photos, creative efforts, and records. Although participants reported strategies such as backup and file replication for digital safekeeping, they were seldom able to implement them consistently. Four central archiving themes emerged from the data: (1) people find it difficult to evaluate the worth of accumulated materials; (2) personal storage is highly distributed both on- and offline; (3) people are experiencing magnified curatorial probl...

  3. A Gamification Model to Encourage Positive Healthcare Behaviours in Young People with Long Term Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew S. Wilson

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Young people living with long term conditions will eventually have to transfer their care to the adult setting. Failure to plan and coordinate this has been associated with poorer health outcomes and disruption to their care. Transition planning encourages both health literacy and health promoting behaviours in an age and developmentally appropriate way. In order to gauge the attainment of these skills the Birmingham Children’s Hospital Adolescent Rheumatology Team (UK have developed a series of transitional care checklists. This paper focuses on discussing how the application of gamification (using game mechanics in non-game contexts to these checklists could improve the engagement of young people in managing their self-care and provide a mechanism for doctors to quantifying the acquisition of these skills.

  4. Metal concentrations in soil and seepage water due to infiltration of roof runoff by long term numerical modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, J; Dierkes, C; Göbel, P; Klinger, C; Stubbe, H; Coldewey, W G

    2005-01-01

    The qualitative effects of stormwater infiltration on soil and seepage water are investigated with long term numerical modelling. The retention behaviour of different soils and materials used in infiltration devices is determined with batch and column tests. Results of the laboratory tests are adsorption isotherms which represent input data for numerical transport modelling. The long term simulations are performed with combinations of different solutions (types of roof runoff) and infiltration devices (swale and trench) under different hydrogeological conditions. The presented results contain the infiltration of low polluted roof runoff, runoff from a roof with zinc sheets and from a roof with copper sheets concerning the heavy metals zinc, copper and lead. The increase of concentrations in the infiltration body is high. For the infiltrated water, the results show a migration to groundwater only for the low adsorbing soil.

  5. Modeling phase-angle dependence of lunar irradiance using long-term lunar measurements by VIRS on TRMM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Xi; Zhang, Bin; Cao, Changyong

    2014-11-01

    Moon reflects sun light and its surface is radiometicly stable, making it an ideal target for calibrating satellite radiometers. Since lunar irradiance depends strongly on lunar phase and differs between waxing and waning phases, an accurate modeling of dependence of lunar irradiance on lunar phase angle is needed and requires long term consistent observations of the moon. Since its operation in 1998, the Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite makes regular observations of moon through space view for about 15 years with comprehensive coverage of lunar phases varying from waxing to waning. Two of these VIRS bands are reflected solar bands centered at 0.62 and 1.61um. Lunar measurements through space view of VIRS are not subject to atmospheric effects. Therefore, long term lunar observation by VIRS on TRMM is an invaluable dataset for both verifying and calibrating lunar irradiance models. In this study, analysis of long-term lunar observations using VIRS data are performed and phase-angle dependence of lunar irradiance is modeled. Effects of waxing and waning phases on lunar irradiance for two visible bands of VIRS are quantified. It is found that the lunar disk-integrated intensity of waxing lunar phase is higher than those of waning phase for phase angle >40° for both channels and is consistent with the fact that the waning moon shows more of dark maria. The derived phase angledependences of lunar disk effective reflectance for these two channels are compared with model.

  6. Preventing Long-Term Risk of Obesity for Two Generations: Prenatal Physical Activity Is Part of the Puzzle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie-May Ruchat

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The period surrounding pregnancy has been identified as a risk period for overweight/obesity in both mother and child because of excessive gestational weight gain (GWG. The promotion of a healthy GWG is therefore of paramount importance in the context of the prevention of obesity in the current and next generations. Objective. To provide a comprehensive overview of the effect of prenatal physical activity interventions, alone or in combination with nutritional counselling, on GWG and to address whether preventing excessive GWG decreases the incidence of infant high birth weight and/or postpartum weight retention. Method. A search of the PubMed database was conducted to identify all relevant studies. Nineteen studies were included in this review: 13 interventions combining physical activity, nutrition, and GWG counselling and 6 interventions including physical activity alone. Results. Prenatal lifestyle interventions promoting healthy eating and physical activity habits appear to be the most effective approach to prevent excessive GWG. Achievement of appropriate GWG may also decrease the incidence of high infant birth weight and postpartum weight retention. Conclusion. Healthy eating habits during pregnancy, combined with an active lifestyle, may be important elements in the prevention of long-term risk of obesity for two generations.

  7. Prevalence and risk factors for intestinal protozoa infection in elderly residents at Long Term Residency Institutions in Southeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotto, Katymilla Guimarães; Grama, Daliane Faria; da Cunha, Maria Júlia Rodrigues; Faria, Elaine Silva Marques; Limongi, Jean Ezequiel; Pinto, Rogério de Melo Costa; Cury, Márcia Cristina

    2013-01-01

    This study determined the prevalence of intestinal protozoa in Long Term Residency Institutions for the Elderly (ILPI) in elders, nurses and food handlers, identifying the risk factors associated with the infections. Stool samples taken from the elderly (n = 293), nurses (63) and food handlers (19) were studied. Questionnaires were used with questions related to sociodemographic variables, health, behavior and health characteristics. Stool samples were examined using the techniques of Faust and Ziehl Neelsen, and the prevalence of G. duodenalis, Cryptosporidium spp., E. histolytica/dispar in the elderly was 4.0%, 1.0% and 0.3% respectively. Nurses and food handlers showed 4.8% and 5.2% positivity only for G. duodenalis, respectively. The origin of the individuals and contact with domestic animals has been associated with infection by G. duodenalis in the elderly, and contact with domestic animals was considered a risk factor for infection. The last stool examinations were related to Cryptosporidium spp.. None of the variables were associated with E. histolytica/dispar. The frequency of hand washing was significantly associated with G. duodenalis among nurses. The frequency of positive samples of G. duodenalis, Cryptosporidium spp., E. histolytica/dispar showed that ILPIs environments are conducive to this occurring due to contact between the elderly, nurses and food handlers, which are often poorly trained in hygiene procedures and food handling.

  8. Response to Initial Therapy of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Predicts the Long-Term Outcome Better than Classical Risk Stratification Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Cano-Palomares

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Although differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC usually has an indolent course, some cases show a poor prognosis; therefore, risk stratification is required. The objective of this study is to compare the predictive ability of classical risk stratification systems proposed by the European Thyroid Association (ETA and American Thyroid Association (ATA with the system proposed by Tuttle et al. in 2010, based on the response to initial therapy (RIT. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 176 cases of DTC with a median follow-up period of 7.0 years. Each patient was stratified using ETA, ATA, and RIT systems. Negative predictive value (NPV and positive predictive value (PPV were determined. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was calculated in order to compare the predictive ability. Results. RIT showed a NPV of 97.7%, better than NPV of ETA and ATA systems (93.9% and 94.9%, resp.. ETA and ATA systems showed poor PPV (40.3% and 41%, resp., while RIT showed a PPV of 70.8%. The area under ROC curve was 0.7535 for ETA, 0.7876 for ATA, and 0.9112 for RIT, showing statistical significant differences P<0.05. Conclusions. RIT predicts the long-term outcome of DTC better than ETA/ATA systems, becoming a useful system to adapt management strategies.

  9. [Albumin corrected anion gap is an independent risk factor for long-term mortality of patients with sepsis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaoli; Liao, Xuelian; Xie, Zhichao; Jiang, Chao; Kang, Yan

    2017-02-01

    To explore whether albumin corrected anion gap (ACAG) is associated with long-term mortality of sepsis patients. Adult patients with a diagnosis of sepsis within the first 24 hours (from December 2013 to December 2014) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) were included via the Sepsis database of West China Hospital Sichuan University. To record their long-term survival, patients were followed up by telephone interview one year after enrollment. ACAG was calculated according to the anion gap (AG) level within the first 24 hours admitted to ICU, and patients were divided into normal ACAG group (ACAG 12-20 mmol/L) and high ACAG group (ACAG > 20 mmol/L), and clinical characteristics and 1-year mortality were compared between groups. Patients were also divided into survivors and non-survivors according to the 1-year survival outcome, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to find independent risk factors for long-term mortality of sepsis patients. A total of 296 sepsis patients were enrolled in the study, with 191 (64.5%) in the high ACAG group and 105 (35.5%) in the normal ACAG group. There were no significant differences in age, gender, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), Charlson cormobidity index (CCI) and other background variables between groups. Compared with the normal ACAG group, patients who suffered from multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in the high ACAG group were more prone to develop renal and gastrointestinal injury (43.5% vs. 25.7%, 52.9% vs. 33.3%, respectively), had significantly higher serum creatinine [SCr (μmol/L): 89.0 (61.0, 148.0) vs. 67.1 (48.0, 86.0)], greater need for continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT, 16.8% vs. 6.7%), and significantly shorter length of ICU stay and hospital stay [days: 11 (5, 22) vs. 16 (18, 31), 21 (14, 39) vs. 28 (20, 47)], with statistically significant differences (all P year cumulative survival for the

  10. Search for biological/genetic markers in a long-term epidemiological and morbid risk study of affective disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fieve, R R; Go, R; Dunner, D L; Elston, R

    1984-01-01

    A long-term epidemiological genetic study was conducted in which all new patients were evaluated prospectively at the Foundation for Depression and Manic Depression and two Lithium/Affective Disorders clinics at the Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center between the years of 1972 and 1978. All patients met Feighner, RDC and DSM III criteria for Major Depressive Disorder after initial clinical screening interviews and were further subtyped using the Fieve-Dunner 7-point criteria. All 604 probands and 90% of 2711 first-degree relatives were interviewed blindly by diagnosticians trained in the use of the SADS structured interview. Cumulative morbid risk in parents, siblings and children of 490 bipolar probands was 15.6 +/- 3% and 14.0 +/- 1.7% in the first-degree relatives of 114 unipolar probands. A number of biological and genetic marker studies were simultaneously performed on samples of the overall population. The enzymes catechol O-methyltransferase and dopamine beta-hydroxylase, and the dexamethasone suppression test (SDT) did not show any biological marker value for outpatients even though both enzymes were determined to have hereditability. The HLA system, monoamine oxidase and acetylcholinesterase segregated differently from normal controls in samples of the patient population. The positive association findings with monoamine oxidase and the HLA system conflicted with the positive findings of other investigators, leaving doubtful their biological marker value. Red cell acetylcholinesterase was found to be significantly lower in affective disorder patients than in controls. This positive association finding was recently replicated by Mathews et al. (1982) but needs further confirmation. Using 28 blood group markers, a prior association study between the trait defining susceptibility to affective disorder and the genetic marker was positive for haptoglobin GC, and properdinfactor B, confirming earlier findings. Using the sib-pair method on the remaining 25 blood

  11. Long-term low-calorie low-protein vegan diet and endurance exercise are associated with low cardiometabolic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontana, Luigi; Meyer, Timothy E; Klein, Samuel; Holloszy, John O

    2007-06-01

    Western diets, which typically contain large amounts of energy-dense processed foods, together with a sedentary lifestyle are associated with increased cardiometabolic risk. We evaluated the long-term effects of consuming a low-calorie low-protein vegan diet or performing regular endurance exercise on cardiometabolic risk factors. In this cross-sectional study, cardiometabolic risk factors were evaluated in 21 sedentary subjects, who had been on a low-calorie low-protein raw vegan diet for 4.4 +/- 2.8 years, (mean age, 53.1 +/- 11 yrs), 21 body mass index (BMI)-matched endurance runners consuming Western diets, and 21 age- and gender-matched sedentary subjects, consuming Western diets. BMI was lower in the low-calorie low-protein vegan diet (21.3 +/- 3.1 kg/m(2)) and endurance runner (21.1 +/- 1.6 kg/m(2)) groups than in the sedentary Western diet group (26.5 +/- 2.7 kg/m(2)) (p vegan diet and runner groups than in the Western diet group (all p vegan diet group (104 +/- 15 and 62 +/- 11 mm Hg) than in BMI-matched endurance runners (122 +/- 13 and 72 +/- 9 mmHg) and Western diet group (132 +/- 14 and 79 +/- 8 mm Hg) (p vegan diet or regular endurance exercise training is associated with low cardiometabolic risk. Moreover, our data suggest that specific components of a low-calorie low-protein vegan diet provide additional beneficial effects on blood pressure.

  12. Chronic fatigue in 812 testicular cancer survivors during long-term follow-up: increasing prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprauten, M; Haugnes, H S; Brydøy, M; Kiserud, C; Tandstad, T; Bjøro, T; Bjerner, J; Cvancarova, M; Fosså, S D; Oldenburg, J

    2015-10-01

    Chronic fatigue (CF) has been reported to be slightly more prevalent in testicular cancer survivors (TCSs) than in the general population. In this study, we wished to explore possible determinants of CF in TCSs median 12 (survey I) and 19 years (survey II) after treatment, in particular the relation to late effects after treatment. Overall, 812 TCSs treated between 1980 and 1994 provided blood samples (testosterone and luteinizing hormone) and completed questionnaires at survey I (1998-2002) and survey II (2007-2008). Hormone levels were categorized according to quartile thresholds for decadal age groups of controls. Associations between CF and possible risk factors, including the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), treatment, physical activity, hormone levels, neurotoxicity, and comorbidity, were analyzed by logistic regression. Prevalence of CF increased from 15% at survey I to 27% at survey II (P < 0.001). At survey II, risk for CF was increased three- to four-fold for high levels of neuropathy compared with no neuropathy, and two- to three-fold for high levels of Raynaud-like phenomena, and having testosterone levels in the lowest quartile, while being moderately and highly physically active, had a protective effect. Risk for CF in TCSs with higher levels of HADS-Anxiety and HADS-Depression was increased two- to five-fold, respectively. The increasing prevalence of CF in TCSs is a novel finding. Lifestyle interventions, early detection and treatment of depression and anxiety, and possibly testosterone substitution might reduce the risk of CF. Extended long-term follow-up seems to be important. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Development of a modelling methodology for simulation of long-term morphological evolution of the southern Baltic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenyan; Harff, Jan; Schneider, Ralf; Wu, Chaoyu

    2010-10-01

    The Darss-Zingst peninsula at the southern Baltic Sea is a typical wave-dominated barrier island system which includes an outer barrier island and an inner lagoon. The formation of the Darss-Zingst peninsula dates back to the Littorina Transgression onset about 8,000 cal BP. It originated from several discrete islands, has been reshaped by littoral currents, wind-induced waves during the last 8,000 years and evolved into a complex barrier island system as today; thus, it may serve as an example to study the coastal evolution under long-term climate change. A methodology for developing a long-term (decadal-to-centennial) process-based morphodynamic model for the southern Baltic coastal environment is presented here. The methodology consists of two main components: (1) a preliminary analysis of the key processes driving the morphological evolution of the study area based on statistical analysis of meteorological data and sensitivity studies; (2) a multi-scale high-resolution process-based model. The process-based model is structured into eight main modules. The two-dimensional vertically integrated circulation module, the wave module, the bottom boundary layer module, the sediment transport module, the cliff erosion module and the nearshore storm module are real-time calculation modules which aim at solving the short-term processes. A bathymetry update module and a long-term control function set, in which the ‘reduction’ concepts and technique for morphological update acceleration are implemented, are integrated to up-scale the effects of short-term processes to a decadal-to-centennial scale. A series of multi-scale modelling strategies are implemented in the application of the model to the research area. Successful hindcast of the coastline change of the Darss-Zingst peninsula for the last 300 years validates the modelling methodology. Model results indicate that the coastline change of the Darss-Zingst peninsula is dominated by mechanisms acting on different

  14. Characterizing long-term patterns of weight change in China using latent class trajectory modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Paynter

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, obesity-related diseases have increased tremendously in China, and are now the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Patterns of weight change can be used to predict risk of obesity-related diseases, increase understanding of etiology of disease risk, identify groups at particularly high risk, and shape prevention strategies.Latent class trajectory modeling was used to compute weight change trajectories for adults aged 18 to 66 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS data (n = 12,611. Weight change trajectories were computed separately for males and females by age group at baseline due to differential age-related patterns of weight gain in China with urbanization. Generalized linear mixed effects models examined the association between weight change trajectories and baseline characteristics including urbanicity, BMI category, age, and year of study entry.Trajectory classes were identified for each of six age-sex subgroups corresponding to various degrees of weight loss, maintenance and weight gain. Baseline BMI status was a significant predictor of trajectory membership for all age-sex subgroups. Baseline overweight/obesity increased odds of following 'initial loss with maintenance' trajectories. We found no significant association between baseline urbanization and trajectory membership after controlling for other covariates.Trajectory analysis identified patterns of weight change for age by gender groups. Lack of association between baseline urbanization status and trajectory membership suggests that living in a rural environment at baseline was not protective. Analyses identified age-specific nuances in weight change patterns, pointing to the importance of subgroup analyses in future research.

  15. Using the Internet as a source of information and support: a discussion paper on the risks and benefits for children and young people with long-term conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt-Taylor, Jaqui

    2015-01-01

    Children and young people who have long-term conditions are likely to seek health-related information via the Internet. Because of their continuing contact with children with such conditions, primary care practitioners may be well placed to discuss with them and their families the risks and benefits of accessing information online. This includes not only the relative merits of particular sites but also more general online safety issues. To achieve this, it may be helpful for primary care practitioners to consider how they view risk in general, the risks associated with the Internet and the vulnerabilities of children and young people, particularly those with long-term conditions.

  16. Modeling the integration of parasitoid, insecticide, and transgenic insecticidal crop for the long-term control of an insect pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onstad, David W; Liu, Xiaoxia; Chen, Mao; Roush, Rick; Shelton, Anthony M

    2013-06-01

    The tools of insect pest management include host plant resistance, biological control, and insecticides and how they are integrated will influence the durability of each. We created a detailed model of the population dynamics and population genetics of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella L., and its parasitoid, Diadegma insulare (Cresson), to study long-term pest management in broccoli Brassica oleracea L. Given this pest's history of evolving resistance to various toxins, we also evaluated the evolution of resistance to transgenic insecticidal Bt broccoli (expressing Cry1Ac) and two types of insecticides. Simulations demonstrated that parasitism provided the most reliable, long-term control of P. xylostella populations. Use of Bt broccoli with a 10% insecticide-free refuge did not reduce the long-term contribution of parasitism to pest control. Small refuges within Bt broccoli fields can delay evolution of resistance > 30 generations if resistance alleles are rare in the pest population. However, the effectiveness of these refuges can be compromised by insecticide use. Rainfall mortality during the pest's egg and neonate stages significantly influences pest control but especially resistance management. Our model results support the idea that Bt crops and biological control can be integrated in integrated pest management and actually synergistically support each other. However, the planting and maintenance of toxin-free refuges are critical to this integration.

  17. Long-term risk of second malignancy in survivors of Hodgkin's disease treated during adolescence or young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, F E; Klokman, W J; Veer, M B; Hagenbeek, A; Krol, A D; Vetter, U A; Schaapveld, M; van Heerde, P; Burgers, J M; Somers, R; Aleman, B M

    2000-02-01

    To quantify the long-term risk of second primary cancers (SCs) in patients diagnosed with Hodgkin's disease (HD) during adolescence or young adulthood. The risk of SCs was assessed in 1,253 patients diagnosed with HD before the age of 40 years and treated in two Dutch cancer centers between 1966 and 1986. The median follow-up duration was 14.1 years. In all, 137 patients developed SCs, compared with 19.4 cases expected on the basis of incidence rates in the general population (relative risk [RR] = 7.0; 95% confidence interval, 5.9 to 8.3). The 25-year actuarial risk of SC overall was 27.7%. The RR of solid tumors increased greatly with younger age at the first treatment of HD, not only for breast cancer but also for all other solid tumors, with RRs of 4.9, 6.9, and 12.7 for patients first treated at ages 31 to 39 years, 21 to 30 years, and risk of solid cancers other than breast cancer than did patients whose treatment was restricted to initial radiotherapy or initial combined-modality treatment (RR = 9.4 and 4.7, respectively; P =. 004). After more than 20 years of follow-up, the risk of solid tumors is still much greater in survivors of HD than in the population at large. Reassuringly, the greatly increased risk of solid tumors in patients who were young (risk of solid tumors from radiotherapy.

  18. Defining risk of prescription opioid overdose: pharmacy shopping and overlapping prescriptions among long-term opioid users in medicaid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhuo; Wilsey, Barth; Bohm, Michele; Weyrich, Meghan; Roy, Kakoli; Ritley, Dominique; Jones, Christopher; Melnikow, Joy

    2015-05-01

    Use of multiple pharmacies concurrently (pharmacy shopping) and overlapping prescriptions may be indicators of potential misuse or abuse of prescription opioid medications. To evaluate strategies for identifying patients at high risk, we first compared different definitions of pharmacy shopping and then added the indicator of overlapping opioid prescriptions. We identified a cohort of 90,010 Medicaid enrollees who used ≥ 3 opioid prescriptions for ≥ 90 days during 2008 to 2010 from a multistate Medicaid claims database. We compared the diagnostic odds ratios for opioid overdose events of 9 pharmacy shopping definitions. Within a 90-day interval, a threshold of 4 pharmacies had the highest diagnostic odds ratio and was used to define pharmacy shopping. The overdose rate was higher in the subgroup with overlapping prescriptions (18.5 per 1,000 person-years [PYs]) than in the subgroup with pharmacy shopping as the sole indicator (10.7 per 1,000 PYs). Among the subgroup with both conditions, the overdose rate was 26.3 per 1,000 PYs, compared with 4.3 per 1,000 PYs for those with neither condition. Overlapping opioid prescriptions and pharmacy shopping measures had adjusted hazard ratios of 3.0 and 1.8, respectively, for opioid overdose. Using these measures will improve accurate identification of patients at highest risk of opioid overdose, the first step in implementing targeted prevention policies. Long-term prescription opioid use may lead to adverse events, including overdose. Both pharmacy shopping and overlapping opioid prescriptions are associated with adverse outcomes. This study demonstrates that using both indicators will better identify those at high risk of overdose. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Chilean model for long-term follow-up of phenylketonuria (PKU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica Cornejo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Chilean newborn screening program began in 1984 through of a covenant between the National Ministry of Health and the Chilean University through its Institute of Nutrition and Food Technology (INTA with the aim of implementing a pilot study for neonatal detection of phenylketonuria (PKU in Santiago’s central area. In 1989 a program for neonatal diagnosis of PKU and congenital hypothyroidism (HC was initiated by INTA along with Santiago´s occidental health ministry rural area, which covered 20% of newborn population. PKU and HC had an incidence of 1:14,640 and 1:2000 living newborns respectively. These findings allowed the establishment of a favorable cost/benefit ratio which validated the implementation of a program with National character. In 1992 the Chilean Ministry of Health ruled the initiation of PKU and HC newborn screening program and by 1998 the coverage across the country was achieved. INTA is the National Reference Center for confirmation and long term treatment for PKU and HC patients. A follow-up program consists of medical, nutritional, neurological and psychological outcome evaluations as well as periodic biochemical testing in order to guarantee normal patient growth and development. To date 184 children have been diagnosed with classic or moderate PKU, all of them follow a strict monitoring program.

  20. Long-term risks of metal contaminants in drinking water: a critical appraisal of guideline values for arsenic and vanadium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Crebelli

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Metal contaminants in drinking water represent a relevant health issue in several areas of the world. In Italy, because of the geological features of the territory, high arsenic and vanadium are frequently reported in ground waters in concentrations above current guideline values. The implications for public health of the presence of contaminants above their legal limit are directly related to the biological basis of the guideline value. In the case of arsenic there are still major uncertainties in the mechanism of carcinogenesis which prevent a precise evaluation of long-term risks. Thus, the guideline value endorsed in the European Community (10 µg/L has to be considered as a pragmatic tool rather than a quality objective, bearing in mind that "every effort should be made to keep concentrations as low as reasonably possible" (WHO, 2011. A reverse situation holds for vanadium, for which a strict national limit (50 µg/L was previously proposed in consideration of data gaps, and for which new evidence indicated a less stringent health-based limit.

  1. Long-term Soil C and N Dynamics in Response to Enhanced Wind Erosion in Semiarid Grassland, Using CENTURY Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Okin, G. S.; Alavrez, L.; Epstein, H.

    2007-12-01

    Recent studies show that enhanced wind erosion changes soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in desert grasslands of southern New Mexico. However, long-term effects at the scale of decades to centuries are less known, especially under the conditions of drought, directional changes in climate, and land use pressures. Additionally, previous studies have focused on the isolated response of soil C and N, with little understanding of their interactions and differential response of other sub-pools. Using CENTURY, a process-based biogeochemical model, we evaluate the potential impacts of enhanced wind erosion on the long-term dynamics of C and N in the Jornada Experimental Range, southern New Mexico. We find that enhanced wind erosion does have a significant effect on long-term dynamics of C and N that are similar to the short-term dynamics observed in a field experiment at Jornada. The relationships between pools of C and N, levels of wind erosion and vegetation cover reduction as well as the mechanisms by which wind erosion changes C and N cycling in desert grasslands are discussed.

  2. Single-living is associated with increased risk of long-term mortality among employed patients with acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Finn Erland; Mard, Shan

    2010-01-01

    There is conflicting evidence about the impact of social support on adverse outcome after acute myocardial infarction (MI). We examined the relation between single-living and long-term all-cause mortality after MI.......There is conflicting evidence about the impact of social support on adverse outcome after acute myocardial infarction (MI). We examined the relation between single-living and long-term all-cause mortality after MI....

  3. Accounting for differing exposure patterns between laboratory tests and the field in the assessment of long-term risks of pesticides to terrestrial vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, David L

    2005-11-01

    Long-term risks of pesticides to birds and mammals are currently assessed by comparing effects thresholds determined in chronic laboratory studies to exposure levels expected to occur in the field. However, there is often a mismatch between exposure patterns tested in the laboratory tests (exposure levels held constant) and those experienced by animals in the field (exposure levels varying over time). Three methods for addressing this problem are presented and discussed. Time-weighted averaging (TWA) converts a variable field exposure regime to a single value that can be compared directly to the laboratory test results. Body-burden modeling (BBM) is applied to both laboratory and field exposure regimes allowing a straightforward comparison of body residue levels expected for each situation. Temporal analysis (TA) uses expert judgment to decide if the length of time exposure exceeds a toxicity threshold is long enough to cause biologically significant effects. To reduce uncertainty in long-term assessments, the conduct of specialized laboratory tests in which test subjects are administered a time-varying exposure that mimics what occurs in the field should be considered. Such tests may also be useful testing the validity of each of these assessment methods.

  4. Physical activity, sedentary behavior, and long-term cardiovascular risk in young people: A review and discussion of methodology in prospective studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob Tarp

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-term effects of physical activity (PA or sedentary behavior on cardiovascular health in young people are not well understood. In this study, we use a narrative format to review the evidence for a prospective association with adiposity and other well-established biological cardiovascular risk factors in healthy young people, considering only studies with at least 2 years of follow-up. PA appears to elicit a long-term beneficial effect on adiposity and particularly markers of cardiovascular health. With adiposity, however, a few studies also reported that higher levels of PA were associated with higher levels of adiposity. Time spent sedentary does not appear to be related to adiposity or markers of cardiovascular health independent of PA. We then discuss the uncertainties in the underlying causal chain and consider a number of alternative modeling strategies, which could improve our understanding of the relationship in future studies. Finally, we consider the current methodology for assessing PA and sedentary time.

  5. Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farzan, Shohreh F. [Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH (United States); Departments of Population Health and Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY (United States); Chen, Yu [Departments of Population Health and Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY (United States); Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot [Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH (United States); Karagas, Margaret R., E-mail: margaret.r.karagas@dartmouth.edu [Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH (United States)

    2015-09-01

    High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.

  6. Cost tradeoffs in consequence management at nuclear power plants: A risk based approach to setting optimal long-term interdiction limits for regulatory analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mubayi, V.

    1995-05-01

    The consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants can be limited by various protective actions, including emergency responses and long-term measures, to reduce exposures of affected populations. Each of these protective actions involve costs to society. The costs of the long-term protective actions depend on the criterion adopted for the allowable level of long-term exposure. This criterion, called the ``long term interdiction limit,`` is expressed in terms of the projected dose to an individual over a certain time period from the long-term exposure pathways. The two measures of offsite consequences, latent cancers and costs, are inversely related and the choice of an interdiction limit is, in effect, a trade-off between these two measures. By monetizing the health effects (through ascribing a monetary value to life lost), the costs of the two consequence measures vary with the interdiction limit, the health effect costs increasing as the limit is relaxed and the protective action costs decreasing. The minimum of the total cost curve can be used to calculate an optimal long term interdiction limit. The calculation of such an optimal limit is presented for each of five US nuclear power plants which were analyzed for severe accident risk in the NUREG-1150 program by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

  7. Medical Underwriting In Long-Term Care Insurance: Market Conditions Limit Options For Higher-Risk Consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C; Cohen, Marc; Shi, Xiaomei; Stevenson, David G

    2016-08-01

    A key feature of private long-term care insurance is that medical underwriters screen out would-be buyers who have health conditions that portend near-term physical or cognitive disability. We applied common underwriting criteria based on data from two long-term care insurers to a nationally representative sample of individuals in the target age range (50-71 years) for long-term care insurance. The screening criteria put upper bounds on the current proportion of Americans who could gain coverage in the individual market without changes to medical underwriting practice. Specifically, our simulations show that in the target age range, approximately 30 percent of those whose wealth meets minimum industry standards for suitability for long-term care insurance would have their application for such insurance rejected at the underwriting stage. Among the general population-without considering financial suitability-we estimated that 40 percent would have their applications rejected. The predicted rejection rates are substantially higher than the rejection rates of about 20-25 percent of applicants in the actual market. In evaluating reforms for long-term care financing and their potential to increase private insurance rates, as well as to reduce financial pressure on public safety-net programs, policy makers need to consider the role of underwriting in the market for long-term care insurance.

  8. From 2D to 3D modelling in long term tectonics: Modelling challenges and HPC solutions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pourhiet, L.; May, D.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last decades, 3D thermo-mechanical codes have been made available to the long term tectonics community either as open source (Underworld, Gale) or more limited access (Fantom, Elvis3D, Douar, LaMem etc ...). However, to date, few published results using these methods have included the coupling between crustal and lithospheric dynamics at large strain. The fact that these computations are computational expensive is not the primary reason for the relatively slow development of 3D modeling in the long term tectonics community, as compare to the rapid development observed within the mantle dynamic community, or in the short-term tectonics field. Long term tectonics problems have specific issues not found in either of these two field, including; large strain (not an issue for short-term), the inclusion of free surface and the occurence of large viscosity contrasts. The first issue is typically eliminated using a combined marker-ALE method instead of fully lagrangian method, however, the marker-ALE approach can pose some algorithmic challenges in a massively parallel environment. The two last issues are more problematic because they affect the convergence of the linear/non-linear solver and the memory cost. Two options have been tested so far, using low order element and solving with a sparse direct solver, or using higher order stable elements together with a multi-grid solver. The first options, is simpler to code and to use but reaches its limit at around 80^3 low order elements. The second option requires more operations but allows using iterative solver on extremely large computers. In this presentation, I will describe the design philosophy and highlight results obtained using a code from the second-class method. The presentation will be oriented from an end-user point of view, using an application from 3D continental break up to illustrate key concepts. The description will proceed point by point from implementing physics into the code, to dealing with

  9. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P.; Gao, B. [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  10. Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality after Hospitalization for Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A 5-Year Prospective Follow-Up Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan C Holter

    Full Text Available Contributors to long-term mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP remain unclear, with little attention paid to pneumonia etiology. We examined long-term survival, causes of death, and risk factors for long-term mortality in adult patients who had been hospitalized for CAP, with emphasis on demographic, clinical, laboratory, and microbiological characteristics.Two hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients admitted in 2008-2011 to a general hospital with CAP were prospectively recruited and followed up. Patients who died during hospital stay were excluded. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected within 48 hours of admission. Extensive microbiological work-up was performed to establish the etiology of CAP in 63% of patients. Mortality data were obtained from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality.Of 259 hospital survivors of CAP (median age 66 years, 79 (30.5% died over a median of 1,804 days (range 1-2,520 days. Cumulative 5-year survival rate was 72.9% (95% CI 67.4-78.4%. Standardized mortality ratio was 2.90 for men and 2.05 for women. The main causes of death were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, vascular diseases, and malignancy. Independent risk factors for death were the following (hazard ratio, 95% CI: age (1.83 per decade, 1.47-2.28, cardiovascular disease (2.63, 1.61-4.32, COPD (2.09, 1.27-3.45, immunocompromization (1.98, 1.17-3.37, and low serum albumin level at admission (0.75 per 5 g/L higher, 0.58-0.96, whereas active smoking was protective (0.32, 0.14-0.74; active smokers were younger than non-smokers (P < 0.001. Microbial etiology did not predict mortality.Results largely confirm substantial comorbidity-related 5-year mortality after hospitalization for CAP and the impact of several well-known risk factors for death, and extend previous findings on the prognostic value of serum albumin

  11. Influence of acute kidney injury on short- and long-term outcomes in patients undergoing cardiac surgery: risk factors and prognostic value of a modified RIFLE classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Delgado, Juan C; Esteve, Francisco; Torrado, Herminia; Rodríguez-Castro, David; Carrio, Maria L; Farrero, Elisabet; Javierre, Casimiro; Ventura, Josep L; Manez, Rafael

    2013-12-13

    The development of acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with poor outcome. The modified RIFLE (risk, injury, failure, loss of kidney function, and end-stage renal failure) classification for AKI, which classifies patients with renal replacement therapy needs according to RIFLE failure class, improves the predictive value of AKI in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Our aim was to assess risk factors for post-operative AKI and the impact of renal function on short- and long-term survival among all AKI subgroups using the modified RIFLE classification. We prospectively studied 2,940 consecutive cardiosurgical patients between January 2004 and July 2009. AKI was defined according to the modified RIFLE system. Pre-operative, operative and post-operative variables usually measured on and during admission, which included main outcomes, were recorded together with cardiac surgery scores and ICU scores. These data were evaluated for association with AKI and staging in the different RIFLE groups by means of multivariable analyses. Survival was analyzed via Kaplan-Meier and a risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model. A complete follow-up (mean 6.9 ± 4.3 years) was performed in 2,840 patients up to April 2013. Of those patients studied, 14% (n = 409) were diagnosed with AKI. We identified one intra-operative (higher cardiopulmonary bypass time) and two post-operative (a longer need for vasoactive drugs and higher arterial lactate 24 hours after admission) predictors of AKI. The worst outcomes, including in-hospital mortality, were associated with the worst RIFLE class. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed survival of 74.9% in the RIFLE risk group, 42.9% in the RIFLE injury group and 22.3% in the RIFLE failure group (P RIFLE injury (Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.347, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.122 to 4.907, P = 0.023) and RIFLE failure (HR = 3.093, 95% CI 1.460 to 6.550, P = 0.003) were independent predictors for long-term patient mortality

  12. Contradictory hydrological impacts of afforestation in the humid tropics evidenced by long-term field monitoring and simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacombe, Guillaume; Ribolzi, Olivier; de Rouw, Anneke; Pierret, Alain; Latsachak, Keoudone; Silvera, Norbert; Pham Dinh, Rinh; Orange, Didier; Janeau, Jean-Louis; Soulileuth, Bounsamai; Robain, Henri; Taccoen, Adrien; Sengphaathith, Phouthamaly; Mouche, Emmanuel; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Tran Duc, Toan; Valentin, Christian

    2016-07-01

    The humid tropics are exposed to an unprecedented modernisation of agriculture involving rapid and mixed land-use changes with contrasted environmental impacts. Afforestation is often mentioned as an unambiguous solution for restoring ecosystem services and enhancing biodiversity. One consequence of afforestation is the alteration of streamflow variability which controls habitats, water resources, and flood risks. We demonstrate that afforestation by tree planting or by natural forest regeneration can induce opposite hydrological changes. An observatory including long-term field measurements of fine-scale land-use mosaics and of hydrometeorological variables has been operating in several headwater catchments in tropical southeast Asia since 2000. The GR2M water balance model, repeatedly calibrated over successive 1-year periods and used in simulation mode with the same year of rainfall input, allowed the hydrological effect of land-use change to be isolated from that of rainfall variability in two of these catchments in Laos and Vietnam. Visual inspection of hydrographs, correlation analyses, and trend detection tests allowed causality between land-use changes and changes in seasonal streamflow to be ascertained. In Laos, the combination of shifting cultivation system (alternation of rice and fallow) and the gradual increase of teak tree plantations replacing fallow led to intricate streamflow patterns: pluri-annual streamflow cycles induced by the shifting system, on top of a gradual streamflow increase over years caused by the spread of the plantations. In Vietnam, the abandonment of continuously cropped areas combined with patches of mix-trees plantations led to the natural re-growth of forest communities followed by a gradual drop in streamflow. Soil infiltrability controlled by surface crusting is the predominant process explaining why two modes of afforestation (natural regeneration vs. planting) led to opposite changes in streamflow regime. Given that

  13. [The mathematical modelling of Ca2(+)-dependent postsynaptic processes in the hippocampus (the induction of long-term potentiation and long-term depression)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murzina, G B; Sil'kis, I G

    1996-01-01

    The computational model was put forward of calcium-dependent posttetanic processes in the dendritic spine of CA3 hippocampal pyramidal neuron which received excitatory and inhibitory afferents. The system of differential equations enables description and evaluation of changes in protein kinase and protein phosphatase activity induced by changes in postsynaptic Ca2+ ion concentration (Cap2+). It was shown that the synaptic efficacy is determined by the ratio between active protein kinases and active protein phosphatase I. According to the proposed model, increase/decrease in Cap2+ concentration relative to the Cap2+ rise, produced by prior stimulation, results in the increase/decrease in the number of phosphorylated ionotropic receptors and in LTP/LTD synaptic efficacy. It follows form the model calculations that the same mechanisms underlie the LTP, LTD, and depotentiation. Some results of experimental study of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic plasticity are explained and systematized.

  14. Long-term effectiveness of irreversible electroporation in a murine model of colorectal liver metastasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Velázquez, P.; Castellví, Q.; Villanueva, A.; Iglesias, M.; Quesada, R.; Pañella, C.; Cáceres, M.; Dorcaratto, D.; Andaluz, A.; Moll, X.; Burdío, J. M.; Grande, L.; Ivorra, A.; Burdío, F.

    2017-01-01

    Irreversible electroporation (IRE) has recently gained in popularity as an ablative technique, however little is known about its oncological long-term outcomes. To determine the long-time survival of animals treated with a high dose of IRE and which histological changes it induces in tumoral tissue, IRE ablation was performed in forty-six athymic-nude mice with KM12C tumors implanted in the liver by applying electric current with different voltages (2000 V/cm, 1000 V/cm). The tumors were allowed to continue to grow until the animals reached the end-point criteria. Histology was harvested and the extent of tumor necrosis was semi-quantitatively assessed. IRE treatment with the 2000 V/cm protocol significantly prolonged median mouse survival from 74.3 ± 6.9 days in the sham group to 112.5 ± 15.2 days in the 2000 V/cm group. No differences were observed between the mean survival of the 1000 V/cm and the sham group (83.2 ± 16.4 days, p = 0.62). Histology revealed 63.05% ± 23.12 of tumor necrosis in animals of the 2000 V/cm group as compared to 17.50% ± 2.50 in the 1000 V/cm group and 25.6% ± 22.1 in the Sham group (p = 0.001). IRE prolonged the survival of animals treated with the highest electric field (2000 V/cm). The animals in this group showed significantly higher rate of tumoral necrosis. PMID:28327623

  15. A water extract of Mucuna pruriens provides long-term amelioration of parkinsonism with reduced risk for dyskinesias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieu, Christopher A; Kunselman, Allen R; Manyam, Bala V; Venkiteswaran, Kala; Subramanian, Thyagarajan

    2010-08-01

    Dopaminergic anti-parkinsonian medications, such as levodopa (LD) cause drug-induced dyskinesias (DID) in majority of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Mucuna pruriens, a legume extensively used in Ayurveda to treat PD, is reputed to provide anti-parkinsonian benefits without inducing DID. We compared the behavioral effects of chronic parenteral administration of a water extract of M. pruriens seed powder (MPE) alone without any additives, MPE combined with the peripheral dopa-decarboxylase inhibitor (DDCI) benserazide (MPE+BZ), LD+BZ and LD alone without BZ in the hemiparkinsonian rat model of PD. A battery of behavioral tests assessed by blinded investigators served as outcome measures in these randomized trials. In experiment 1, animals that received LD+BZ or MPE+BZ at high (6mg/kg) and medium (4mg/kg) equivalent doses demonstrated significant alleviation of parkinsonism, but, developed severe dose-dependent DID. LD+BZ at low doses (2mg/kg) did not provide significant alleviation of parkinsonism. In contrast, MPE+BZ at an equivalent low dose significantly ameliorated parkinsonism. In experiment 2, MPE without any additives (12mg/kg and 20mg/kg LD equivalent dose) alleviated parkinsonism with significantly less DID compared to LD+BZ or MPE+BZ. In experiment 3, MPE without additives administered chronically provided long-term anti-parkinsonian benefits without causing DID. In experiment 4, MPE alone provided significantly more behavioral benefit when compared to the equivalent dose of synthetic LD alone without BZ. In experiment 5, MPE alone reduced the severity of DID in animals initially primed with LD+BZ. These findings suggest that M. pruriens contains water-soluble ingredients that either have an intrinsic DDCI-like activity or mitigate the need for an add-on DDCI to ameliorate parkinsonism. These unique long-term anti-parkinsonian effects of a parenterally administered water extract of M. pruriens seed powder may provide a platform for future drug

  16. A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

    2017-06-01

    Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

  17. A model study of the seasonal and long term North Atlantic surface pCO2 variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Heinze

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A coupled biogeochemical-physical ocean model is used to study the long term variations of surface pCO2 in the North Atlantic Ocean. The model agrees well with recent underway pCO2 observations from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT database in various locations in the North Atlantic. The distinct seasonal cycles observed at different parts of the North Atlantic are well reproduced by the model. In most regions except the subpolar domain, the recent observed trends in pCO2 and air–sea carbon fluxes are also simulated by the model. Over a long period between 1960–2008, the primary mode of surface pCO2 variability is dominated by the increasing trend associated with the invasion of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean. We show that, to first order, the ocean surface circulation and air–sea heat flux patterns can explain the spatial variability of this dominant increasing trend. Regions with strong surface mass transport and negative air–sea heat flux have the tendency to maintain lower surface pCO2. Regions of surface convergence and mean positive air–sea heat flux such as the subtropical gyre and the western subpolar gyre have faster increase in pCO2 over a long term period. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO plays a major role in controlling the variability occurring at interannual to decadal time scales. The NAO predominantly influences surface pCO2 in the North Atlantic by changing the physical properties of the North Atlantic water masses, particularly by perturbing the temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface ocean. We show that present underway observations are valuable for both calibrating the model, as well as for improving our understanding of the regionally heterogeneous variability of surface pCO2. In addition, they can be important for detecting any long term change in the regional carbon cycle due to ongoing climate change.

  18. Group-based trajectory models: a new approach to classifying and predicting long-term medication adherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Jessica M; Shrank, William H; Pakes, Juliana; Sanfélix-Gimeno, Gabriel; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2013-09-01

    Classifying medication adherence is important for efficiently targeting adherence improvement interventions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of a novel method, group-based trajectory models, for classifying patients by their long-term adherence. We identified patients who initiated a statin between June 1, 2006 and May 30, 2007 in prescription claims from CVS Caremark and evaluated adherence over the subsequent 15 months. We compared several adherence summary measures, including proportion of days covered (PDC) and trajectory models with 2-6 groups, with the observed adherence pattern, defined by monthly indicators of full adherence (defined as having ≥24 d covered of 30). We also compared the accuracy of adherence prediction based on patient characteristics when adherence was defined by either a trajectory model or PDC. In 264,789 statin initiators, the 6-group trajectory model summarized long-term adherence best (C=0.938), whereas PDC summarized less well (C=0.881). The accuracy of adherence predictions was similar whether adherence was classified by PDC or by trajectory model. Trajectory models summarized adherence patterns better than traditional approaches and were similarly predicted by covariates. Group-based trajectory models may facilitate targeting of interventions and may be useful to adjust for confounding by health-seeking behavior.

  19. Simple Model Representations of Transport in a Complex Fracture and Their Effects on Long-Term Predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doughty, Christine; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Doughty, Christine; Uchida, Masahiro

    2007-11-07

    A complex fracture model for fluid flow and tracer transport was previously developed that incorporates many of the important physical effects of a realistic fracture, including advection through a heterogeneous fracture plane, partitioning of flow into multiple subfractures in the third dimension, and diffusion and sorption into fracture-filling gouge, small altered rock matrix blocks within the fracture zone, and the unaltered semi-infinite rock matrix on both sides of the fracture zone (Tsang and Doughty, 2003). It is common, however, to represent the complex fracture by much simpler models consisting of a single fracture, with a uniform or heterogeneous transmissivity distribution over its plane and bounded on both sides by a homogeneous semi-infinite matrix. Simple-model properties are often inferred from the analysis of short-term (one to a few days) site characterization (SC) tracer-test data. The question addressed in this paper is: How reliable is the temporal upscaling of these simplified models? Are they adequate are for long-term calculations that cover thousands of years? In this study, a particle-tracking approach is used to calculate tracer-test breakthrough curves (BTCs) in a complex fracture model, incorporating all the features described above, for both a short-term SC tracer test and a 10,000-year calculation. The results are considered the 'real-world'. Next, two simple fracture models, one uniform and the other heterogeneous, are introduced. Properties for these simple models are taken either from laboratory data or found by calibration to the short-term SC tracer-test BTCs obtained with the complex fracture model. Then the simple models are used to simulate tracer transport at the long-term time scale. Results show that for the short-term SC tracer test, the BTCs calculated using simple models with laboratory-measured parameters differ significantly from the BTCs obtained with the complex fracture model. By adjusting model properties

  20. Optimism During Hospitalization for First Acute Myocardial Infarction and Long-Term Mortality Risk: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss-Faratci, Netanela; Lurie, Ido; Benyamini, Yael; Cohen, Gali; Goldbourt, Uri; Gerber, Yariv

    2017-01-01

    To assess the association between dispositional optimism, defined as generalized positive expectations about the future, and long-term mortality in young survivors of myocardial infarction (MI). A subcohort of 664 patients 65 years and younger, drawn from the longitudinal Israel Study of First Acute Myocardial Infarction, completed an adapted Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire during their index hospitalization between February 15, 1992, and February 15, 1993. Additional sociodemographic, clinical, and psychosocial variables were assessed at baseline; mortality follow-up lasted through December 31, 2015. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fit to assess the hazard ratios for mortality associated with LOT-derived optimism. The mean age of the participants was 52.4±8.6 years; 98 (15%) were women. The median follow-up period was 22.4 years (25th-75th percentiles, 16.1-22.8 years), during which 284 patients (43%) had died. The mean LOT score was 16.5±4.1. Incidence density rates for mortality in increasing optimism tertiles were 25.4, 25.8, and 16.0 per 1000 person-years, respectively (Poptimism during hospitalization for MI were associated with reduced mortality over a 2-decade follow-up period. Optimism training and positive psychology should be examined as part of psychosocial interventions and rehabilitation after MI. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Long-term risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in relation to BMI and weight change among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bao, Wei; Yeung, Edwina; Tobias, Deirdre K;

    2015-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are advised to control their weight after pregnancy. We aimed to examine how adiposity and weight change influence the long-term risk of developing type 2 diabetes after GDM. METHODS: We included 1,695 women who had...... pregnancy. We estimated HRs and 95% CIs using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We documented 259 incident cases of type 2 diabetes during up to 18 years of follow-up. The adjusted HRs of type 2 diabetes associated with each 1 kg/m(2) increase in BMI were 1.16 (95% CI 1.12, 1.19) for baseline BMI...... incident GDM between 1991 and 2001, as part of the Diabetes & Women's Health study, and followed them until the return of the 2009 questionnaire. Body weight and incident type 2 diabetic cases were reported biennially. We defined baseline as the questionnaire period when women reported an incident GDM...

  2. Clinical and non-clinical depressive symptoms and risk of long-term sickness absence among female employees in the Danish eldercare sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjarsbech, PU; Andersen, Rikke Voss; Christensen, Karl Bang

    2011-01-01

    Background: Depression has a high point and life time prevalence and is a major cause of reduced work ability and long-term sickness absence (LTSA). Less is known of the extent to which non-clinical depressive symptoms are related to the risk of LTSA. The aim of this study was to investigate how...... non-clinical and clinical depressive symptoms are prospectively associated to subsequent LTSA. Methods: In a cohort study of 6985 femaleemployees fromthe Danish eldercare sector depressive symptoms were measured by the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and scores (0–50) were divided into groups of 0......–4, 5–9, 10–14, 15–19,=20 points and clinical depression. Datawas linked to a national register with information on LTSA (=3 weeks). Hazard ratios (HR) for LTSA during a 1-year follow-up were calculated by Cox's proportional hazards model. Results: Compared to the reference group (0–4) the HR...

  3. Anxiety and anger immediately prior to myocardial infarction and long-term mortality: Characteristics of high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeijers, Loes; Mostofsky, Elizabeth; Tofler, Geoffrey H; Muller, James E; Kop, Willem J; Mittleman, Murray A

    2017-02-01

    Acute high levels of anger and anxiety are associated with an elevated risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in the following two hours. MIs preceded by these acute negative emotions may also have a poor long-term prognosis, but information about high-risk patients is lacking. We examined whether young age and female sex are associated with MIs that are preceded by negative emotions and whether age and sex moderate the subsequent increased mortality risk following MI preceded by negative emotions. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Determinants of Myocardial Infarction Onset Study (N=2176, mean age=60.1±12.3years, 29.2% women). Anxiety and anger immediately prior to (0-2h) MI and the day before (24-26h) MI were assessed using a structured interview. Subsequent 10-year all-cause mortality was determined using the US National Death Index. Anxiety during the 0-2h pre-MI period was associated with younger age (OR=0.98,95% CI=0.96-0.99 per year) and female sex (OR=1.50,95% CI=1.11-2.02). Anger in the 0-2h pre-MI period was also associated with younger age (OR=0.95,95% CI=0.94-0.96) but not with sex (OR=0.93,95% CI=0.67-1.28). During follow-up, 580 (26.7%) patients died. Mortality rate was higher if MI occurred immediately after high anxiety, particularly in patients ≥65years (HR=1.80,95% CI=1.28-2.54) vs. younger patients (HR=0.87,95% CI=0.55-1.40; p-interaction=0.015). Other interactions with sex or anger were not significant. Patients with high anxiety or anger levels in the critical 2-hour period prior to MI are younger than those without such emotional precipitants. In addition, pre-MI anxiety is associated with an elevated 10-year mortality risk in patients aged ≥65years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. WI-38 cell long-term quiescence model system: a valuable tool to study molecular events that regulate growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soprano, K J

    1994-04-01

    A number of cell culture model systems have been used to study the regulation of cell cycle progression at the molecular level. In this paper we describe the WI-38 cell long-term quiescence model system. By modulating the length of time that WI-38 cells are density arrested, it is possible to proportionately alter the length of the prereplicative or G-1 phase which the cell traverses after growth factor stimulation in preparation for entry into DNA synthesis. Through studies aimed at understanding the cause and molecular nature of the prolongation of the prereplicative phase, we have determined that gene expression plays an important role in establishing growth factor "competence" and that once the cell becomes "competent" there is a defined order to the molecular events that follow during the remainder of G-1. More specifically, we have determined that the prolongation represents a delay in the ability of long term quiescent cells to become fully "competent" to respond to growth factors which regulate progression through G-1 into S. This prolongation appears to occur as a result of changes during long term quiescence in the ability of immediate early G-1 specific genes (such as c-myc) to activate the expression of early G-1 specific genes (such as ornithine decarboxylase). While ODC is the first and thus far only growth associated gene identified as a target of c-myc (and the Myc/Max protein complex), it is likely that further studies in this model system will reveal other early G-1 growth regulatory genes. We anticipate that future follow-up studies in this model system will provide additional valuable information about the function of growth-regulatory genes in controlling growth factor responsiveness and cell cycle progression.

  5. LOSCAR: Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir Model v2.0.4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Zeebe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The LOSCAR model is designed to efficiently compute the partitioning of carbon between ocean, atmosphere, and sediments on time scales ranging from centuries to millions of years. While a variety of computationally inexpensive carbon cycle models are already available, many are missing a critical sediment component, which is indispensable for long-term integrations. One of LOSCAR's strengths is the coupling of ocean-atmosphere routines to a computationally efficient sediment module. This allows, for instance, adequate computation of CaCO3 dissolution, calcite compensation, and long-term carbon cycle fluxes, including weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks. The ocean component includes various biogeochemical tracers such as total carbon, alkalinity, phosphate, oxygen, and stable carbon isotopes. LOSCAR's configuration of ocean geometry is flexible and allows for easy switching between modern and paleo-versions. We have previously published applications of the model tackling future projections of ocean chemistry and weathering, pCO2 sensitivity to carbon cycle perturbations throughout the Cenozoic, and carbon/calcium cycling during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The focus of the present contribution is the detailed description of the model including numerical architecture, processes and parameterizations, tuning, and examples of input and output. Typical CPU integration times of LOSCAR are of order seconds for several thousand model years on current standard desktop machines. The LOSCAR source code in C can be obtained from the author by sending a request to loscar.model@gmail.com.

  6. Long-Term Outcomes From a Prospective Trial of Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Christopher R., E-mail: crking@mednet.ucla.edu [Departments of Radiation Oncology and Urology, University of California Los Angeles School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Brooks, James D.; Gill, Harcharan; Presti, Joseph C. [Department of Urology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Purpose: Hypofractionated radiotherapy has an intrinsically different normal tissue and tumor radiobiology. The results of a prospective trial of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for prostate cancer with long-term patient-reported toxicity and tumor control rates are presented. Methods and Materials: From 2003 through 2009, 67 patients with clinically localized low-risk prostate cancer were enrolled. Treatment consisted of 36.25 Gy in 5 fractions using SBRT with the CyberKnife as the delivery technology. No patient received hormone therapy. Patient self-reported bladder and rectal toxicities were graded on the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group scale (RTOG). Results: Median follow-up was 2.7 years. There were no grade 4 toxicities. Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Grade 3, 2, and 1 bladder toxicities were seen in 3% (2 patients), 5% (3 patients), and 23% (13 patients) respectively. Dysuria exacerbated by urologic instrumentation accounted for both patients with Grade 3 toxicity. Urinary incontinence, complete obstruction, or persistent hematuria was not observed. Rectal Grade 3, 2, and 1 toxicities were seen in 0, 2% (1 patient), and 12.5% (7 patients), respectively. Persistent rectal bleeding was not observed. Low-grade toxicities were substantially less frequent with QOD vs. QD dose regimen (p = 0.001 for gastrointestinal and p = 0.007 for genitourinary). There were two prostate-specific antigen (PSA), biopsy-proven failures with negative metastatic workup. Median PSA at follow-up was 0.5 {+-} 0.72 ng/mL. The 4-year Kaplan-Meier PSA relapse-free survival was 94% (95% confidence interval, 85%-102%). Conclusion: Significant late bladder and rectal toxicities from SBRT for prostate cancer are infrequent. PSA relapse-free survival compares favorably with other definitive treatments. The current evidence supports consideration of stereotactic body radiotherapy among the therapeutic options for localized prostate cancer.

  7. Acquisition of multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacteria: incidence and risk factors within a long-term care population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Fallon, Erin; Kandel, Ruth; Kandell, Ruth; Schreiber, Robert; D'Agata, Erika M C

    2010-11-01

    An improved understanding of the transmission dynamics of multidrug-resistant (MDR) gram-negative bacteria and the mechanism of acquisition in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) could aid in the development of prevention strategies specific to LTCFs. We thus investigated the incidence of acquisition of these pathogens among an LTCF population. Prospective cohort study. Three separate wards at a 600-bed LTCF in metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, during the period October 31, 2006, through October 22, 2007. One hundred seventy-two LTCF residents. A series of rectal samples were cultured to determine acquisition of MDR gram-negative bacteria, defined as absence of MDR gram-negative bacterial colonization at baseline and de novo recovery of MDR gram-negative bacteria from a follow-up culture. Molecular typing was performed to identify genetically linked strains. A nested matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors associated with acquisition. Among 135 residents for whom at least 1 follow-up culture was performed, 52 (39%) acquired at least 1 MDR gram-negative organism during the study period. Thirty-two residents (62%) had not been colonized at baseline and had acquired at least 1 MDR gram-negative species at follow-up culture, and 20 residents (38%) were colonized at baseline and had acquired at least 1 MDR gram-negative species at follow-up culture. The most common coresistance pattern was resistance to extended-spectrum penicillins, ciprofloxacin, and gentamicin (57 isolates [42.5%]). Genetically related strains of MDR gram-negative bacteria were identified among multiple residents and between roommates. On conditional logistic regression analysis, antibiotic exposure during the study period was significantly associated with acquisition of MDR gram-negative bacteria (odds ratio, 5.6 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-28.7]; P = .04). Acquisition of MDR gram-negative bacteria occurred frequently through resident-to-resident transmission. Existing

  8. Modelling cadmium contamination in paddy soils under long-term remediation measures: Model development and stochastic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping

    2016-09-01

    A pollutant accumulation model (PAM) based on the mass balance theory was developed to simulate long-term changes of heavy metal concentrations in soil. When combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the model can predict the probability distributions of heavy metals in a soil-water-plant system with fluctuating environmental parameters and inputs from multiple pathways. The model was used for evaluating different remediation measures to deal with Cd contamination of paddy soils in Youxian county (Hunan province), China, under five scenarios, namely the default scenario (A), not returning paddy straw to the soil (B), reducing the deposition of Cd (C), liming (D), and integrating several remediation measures (E). The model predicted that the Cd contents of soil can lowered significantly by (B) and those of the plants by (D). However, in the long run, (D) will increase soil Cd. The concentrations of Cd in both soils and rice grains can be effectively reduced by (E), although it will take decades of effort. The history of Cd pollution and the major causes of Cd accumulation in soil were studied by means of sensitivity analysis and retrospective simulation.

  9. Long-term energy-balance modeling of interannual snow and ice in Wyoming using the dynamic equilibrium concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Ryan J.

    Many snow models in the field of hydrologic engineering do not incorporate the long-term effects of the interannual snow storage such as glaciers because glacier dynamics have a much longer timescale than river flow and seasonal snowmelt. This study proposes an appropriate treatment for inland glaciers as systems in dynamic equilibrium that remain constant under a static climate condition. This new method considers the vertical movement of snow/ice from high elevation areas to valleys as the equilibrating factor of the glacier system. The vertical movement of snow/ice occurs by means of wind re-distribution, avalanches, and glaciation. This paper introduces and discusses the physically-based modeling of such a dynamic equilibrium snow system for long-term snow simulation at a regional scale. We apply the regional snow model (RegSnow) to a domain containing the entire state of Wyoming and couple the model to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to compute the snow surface energy-balance. RegSnow predicted that 82.2% of interannual snow and ice storage in Wyoming may disappear by 2100 using temperature increases projected by CMIP5 GCMs, under the RCP4.5 emission scenario.

  10. Long-term Exon Skipping Studies With 2′-O-Methyl Phosphorothioate Antisense Oligonucleotides in Dystrophic Mouse Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christa L Tanganyika-de Winter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Antisense-mediated exon skipping for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD is currently tested in phase 3 clinical trials. The aim of this approach is to modulate splicing by skipping a specific exon to reframe disrupted dystrophin transcripts, allowing the synthesis of a partly functional dystrophin protein. Studies in animal models allow detailed analysis of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profile of antisense oligonucleotides (AONs. Here, we tested the safety and efficacy of subcutaneously administered 2′-O-methyl phosphorothioate AON at 200 mg/kg/week for up to 6 months in mouse models with varying levels of disease severity: mdx mice (mild phenotype and mdx mice with one utrophin allele (mdx/utrn+/−; more severe phenotype. Long-term treatment was well tolerated and exon skipping and dystrophin restoration confirmed for all animals. Notably, in the more severely affected mdx/utrn+/− mice the therapeutic effect was larger: creatine kinase (CK levels were more decreased and rotarod running time was more increased. This suggests that the mdx/utrn+/− model may be a more suitable model to test potential therapies than the regular mdx mouse. Our results also indicate that long-term subcutaneous treatment in dystrophic mouse models with these AONs is safe and beneficial.

  11. Development of a Watershed-Scale Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model with the Asymptotic Curve Number Regression Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichul Ryu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, 52 asymptotic Curve Number (CN regression equations were developed for combinations of representative land covers and hydrologic soil groups. In addition, to overcome the limitations of the original Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA model when it is applied to larger watersheds, a watershed-scale L-THIA Asymptotic CN (ACN regression equation model (watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was developed by integrating the asymptotic CN regressions and various modules for direct runoff/baseflow/channel routing. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was applied to four watersheds in South Korea to evaluate the accuracy of its streamflow prediction. The coefficient of determination (R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE values for observed versus simulated streamflows over intervals of eight days were greater than 0.6 for all four of the watersheds. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model, including the asymptotic CN regression equation method, can simulate long-term streamflow sufficiently well with the ten parameters that have been added for the characterization of streamflow.

  12. INDUCTION OF CHRONIC KIDNEY FAILURE IN A LONG-TERM PERITONEAL EXPOSURE MODEL IN THE RAT: EFFECTS ON FUNCTIONAL AND STRUCTURAL PERITONEAL ALTERATIONS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Vrtovsnik; A. Coester; D. Lopes-Barreto; D.R. de Waart; A. van der Wal; D.G. Struijk; R. Krediet; M. Zweers

    2010-01-01

    Background: A long-term peritoneal exposure model has been developed in Wistar rats. Chronic daily exposure to 3.86% glucose based, lactate buffered, conventional dialysis solutions is possible for up to 20 weeks and induces morphological abnormalities similar to those in long-term peritoneal dialys

  13. Addressing water resources risk in England and Wales: Long term infrastructure planning in a private, regulated industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean

    2015-04-01

    Water resources planning is a complex and challenging discipline in which decision makers must deal with conflicting objectives, contested socio-economic values and vast uncertainties, including long term hydrological variability. The task is arguably more demanding in England and Wales, where private water companies must adhere to a rigid set of regulatory planning guidelines in order to justify new infrastructural investments. These guidelines prescribe a "capacity expansion" approach to planning: ensure that a deterministic measure of supply, known as "Deployable Output," meets projected demand over a 25-year planning horizon. Deployable Output is derived using a method akin to yield analysis and is commensurate with the maximum rate of supply that a water resources system can sustain without incurring failure under a simulation of historical recorded hydrological conditions. This study examines whether Deployable Output analysis is fit to serve an industry in which: water companies are seeking to invest in cross-company water transfer schemes to deal with loss of water availability brought about by European environmental legislation and an increase in demand driven by population growth; water companies are expected address potential climate change impacts through their planning activities; and regulators wish to benchmark water resource system performance across the separate companies. Of particular interest, then, is the adequacy of Deployable Output analysis as a means to measuring current and future water shortage risk and comparing across supply systems. Data from the UK National River Flow Archive are used to develop a series of hypothetical reservoir systems in two hydrologically contrasting regions -- northwest England/north Wales and Southeast England. The systems are varied by adjusting the draft ratio (ratio of target annual demand to mean annual inflow), the inflow diversity (covariance of streamflow sequences supplying the system), the strength of

  14. Micromechanical modelling of short-term and long-term large-strain behaviour of polyethylene terephthalate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poluektov, M.; van Dommelen, J. A. W.; Govaert, L. E.; Yakimets, I.; Geers, M. G. D.

    2013-12-01

    A micromechanically based model is used to describe the mechanical behaviour of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) under uniaxial compression up to large strains and at different temperatures. The creep behaviour of isotropic PET is simulated and compared to experimental data to demonstrate the applicability of the model to describe the long-term response. The material is modelled as an aggregate of two-phase layered domains, where different constitutive laws are used for the phases. A hybrid interaction law between the domains is adopted. The crystalline phase is modelled with crystal plasticity and the amorphous phase with the Eindhoven Glassy Polymer model, taking into account material ageing effects. Model parameters for the selected constitutive laws of the phases are identified from uniaxial compression tests for fully amorphous material and semicrystalline material. Texture evolution during the deformation predicted by the model adequately matches previously observed texture evolution.

  15. Novel experimental Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung infection model mimicking long-term host-pathogen interactions in cystic fibrosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moser, Claus; van Gennip, Maria; Bjarnsholt, Thomas;

    2009-01-01

    Moser C, van Gennip M, Bjarnsholt T, Jensen PO, Lee B, Hougen HP, Calum H, Ciofu O, Givskov M, Molin S, Hoiby N. Novel experimental Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung infection model mimicking long-term host-pathogen interactions in cystic fibrosis. APMIS 2009; 117: 95-107. The dominant cause of premature...... death in patients suffering from cystic fibrosis (CF) is chronic lung infection with Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The chronic lung infection often lasts for decades with just one clone. However, as a result of inflammation, antibiotic treatment and different niches in the lungs, the clone undergoes...

  16. Long-term psychological distress in women at risk for hereditary breast cancer adhering to regular surveillance: a risk profile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijer, M. den; Seynaeve, C.; Vanheusden, K.; Timman, R.; Duivenvoorden, H.J.; Tilanus-Linthorst, M.; Menke-Pluijmers, M.B.; Tibben, A.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Some women at risk for hereditary breast cancer are at increased risk of psychological distress. In order to tailor support for individual women, the availability of a tool enabling the identification of psychologically vulnerable women at an early stage is warranted. The objectives of t

  17. Relative information contributions of model vs. data to short- and long-term forecasts of forest carbon dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Ensheng; Luo, Yiqi

    2011-07-01

    Biogeochemical models have been used to evaluate long-term ecosystem responses to global change on decadal and century time scales. Recently, data assimilation has been applied to improve these models for ecological forecasting. It is not clear what the relative information contributions of model (structure and parameters) vs. data are to constraints of short- and long-term forecasting. In this study, we assimilated eight sets of 10-year data (foliage, woody, and fine root biomass, litter fall, forest floor carbon [C], microbial C, soil C, and soil respiration) collected from Duke Forest into a Terrestrial Ecosystem model (TECO). The relative information contribution was measured by Shannon information index calculated from probability density functions (PDFs) of carbon pool sizes. The null knowledge without a model or data was defined by the uniform PDF within a prior range. The relative model contribution was information content in the PDF of modeled carbon pools minus that in the uniform PDF, while the relative data contribution was the information content in the PDF of modeled carbon pools after data was assimilated minus that before data assimilation. Our results showed that the information contribution of the model to constrain carbon dynamics increased with time whereas the data contribution declined. The eight data sets contributed more than the model to constrain C dynamics in foliage and fine root pools over the 100-year forecasts. The model, however, contributed more than the data sets to constrain the litter, fast soil organic matter (SOM), and passive SOM pools. For the two major C pools, woody biomass and slow SOM, the model contributed less information in the first few decades and then more in the following decades than the data. Knowledge of relative information contributions of model vs. data is useful for model development, uncertainty analysis, future data collection, and evaluation of ecological forecasting.

  18. Potential long-term consequences of fad diets on health, cancer, and longevity: lessons learned from model organism studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruden, Douglas M; Rasouli, Parsa; Lu, Xiangyi

    2007-06-01

    While much of the third world starves, many in the first world are undergoing an obesity epidemic, and the related epidemics of type II diabetes, heart disease, and other diseases associated with obesity. The amount of economic wealth being directly related to a decline in health by obesity is ironic because rich countries contribute billions of dollars to improve the health of their citizens. Nevertheless, nutritional experiments in model organisms such as yeast, C. elegans, Drosophila, and mice confirm that "caloric restriction" (CR), which is defined generally as a 30-40% decrease in caloric intake, a famine-like condition for humans seen only in the poorest of countries, promotes good health and increases longevity in model organisms. Because caloric restriction, and dieting in general, requires a great deal of will power to deal with the feelings of deprivation, many fad diets, such as the Atkins, South Beach, and Protein Power, have been developed which allow people to lose weight purportedly without the severe feelings of deprivation. However, the long-term effects of such fad diets are not known and few experiments have been performed in the laboratory to investigate possible side affects and adverse consequences. In this paper, we review studies with fad-like dietary conditions in humans and model organisms, and we propose a "Dietary Ames Test" to rapidly screen fad diets, dietary supplements, and drugs for potential long-term health consequences in model organisms.

  19. Longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging reveals striatal hypertrophy in a rat model of long-term stimulant treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biezonski, D; Shah, R; Krivko, A; Cha, J; Guilfoyle, D N; Hrabe, J; Gerum, S; Xie, S; Duan, Y; Bansal, R; Leventhal, B L; Peterson, B S; Kellendonk, C; Posner, J

    2016-09-06