WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling long-term risk

  1. A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a three-factor spike model that accounts for different speeds of mean reversion between normal and spiky shocks in the Scandinavian power market. In this model both short and long-run factors are unobservable and are hence estimated as latent variables using the Kalman filter. The proposed model has several advantages. First, it seems to capture in a parsimonious way the most important risks that practitioners face in the market, such as spike risk, short-term risk and long-term risk. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium observed in the market and improves the fit between theoretical and observed forward prices, particularly for long-dated forward contracts. Finally, closed-form solutions for forward contracts, derived from the model, are consistent with the fact that the correlation between contracts of different maturities is imperfect. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful policy analysis and financial engineering tool to market participants for risk management and derivative pricing particularly for long-dated contracts.

  3. Long-term modelling for estimation of man-induced environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahura, A.; Baklanov, A.; Sorensen, J.H.; Tridvornov, A.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: As a part of the EU coordination action project ENVIRO-RISKS the long-term regional and transboundary atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of atmospheric pollutants is investigated. Focus is on pollutants originating at nuclear and chemical risk sites of the NIS countries. Potential sources of atmospheric pollution include chemical and metallurgical enterprises and smelters, former testing polygons of nuclear weapons, and nuclear plants and facilities. These are situated within territories of Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Russia (the Siberian, Ural, Krasnoyarsk, and Kola regions). The atmospheric pollutants considered are radionuclides such as Cs-137, I-131, and Sr-90 as well as sulphates and heavy metals. The Danish Emergency Model for Atmosphere (DERMA) is employed for simulations using 3D meteorological fields from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The modeled concentration and deposition fields of atmospheric pollutants are used as input into further collaborative studies to estimate the man-induced environmental risks from regionally and remotely located potential sources with a focus on Siberian territories. The temporal and spatial variability of these fields and the probabilities and contribution of removal during atmospheric transport are evaluated. Possible approaches for further GIS integration and use of obtained results are discussed with respect to estimation of man-received doses and risks, impact on environment with a focus on forests, applicability for integrated systems for regional environmental monitoring and management, and others. (author)

  4. Essays on long-term mortality and interest rate risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kort, J.P.

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation comprises a study of long-term risks which play a major role in actuarial science. In Part I we analyse long-term mortality risk and its impact on consumption and investment decisions of economic agents, while Part II focuses on the mathematical modelling of long-term interest

  5. Using Probablilistic Risk Assessment to Model Medication System Failures in Long-Term Care Facilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Comden, Sharon C; Marx, David; Murphy-Carley, Margaret; Hale, Misti

    2005-01-01

    .... Discussion: The models provide contextual maps of the errors and behaviors that lead to medication delivery system failures, including unanticipated risks associated with regulatory practices and common...

  6. A long term radiological risk model for plutonium-fueled and fission reactor space nuclear system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Dougherty, D.K.

    1987-01-01

    This report describes the optimization of the RISK III mathematical model, which provides risk assessment for the use of a plutonium-fueled, fission reactor in space systems. The report discusses possible scenarios leading to radiation releases on the ground; distinctions are made for an intact reactor and a dispersed reactor. Also included are projected dose equivalents for various accident situations. 54 refs., 31 figs., 11 tabs

  7. A risk based model supporting long term maintenance and reinvestment strategy decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sand, Kjell; Montard, Julien; Tremoen, Tord H.

    2010-02-15

    This Technical Report is a product from the project Risk-Based Distribution System Asset Management (short: RISK DSAM) - Work Package 3 Risk exposure on company/strategic level. In the report a concept for portfolio distribution system asset management is presented. The approach comprises four main steps: 1. Decide the asset base. 2. Divide the asset base into relevant archetypes. 3. Develop or select relevant maintenance and reinvestment strategies for the different archetypes. 4. Estimate risks and costs for each archetype for the relevant strategies. For the different steps guidelines are given and a proposal for implementation of the concept is given in terms of a proposed IT system architecture.To evaluate the feasibility of such a concept, a prototype was developed in by using Visual Basic macros in Excel using real technical data from a small DSO. The experience from using the prototype shows that the concept is realistic. All assets are included and depending of the ambition of the risk analysis both simple simulation models and more advanced might be embedded. Presentations of the concept for a utility engineers have receive positive feedback indicating that the concept is regarded as a practical way to develop risk based asset management strategies for the asset fleet. It should be noted that the concept should be applied on a company strategic level and is thus not designed to be applied for a specific project or asset decisions. For this, more detailed models with area specific information, topology etc. are needed. (Author)

  8. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  9. Murine model of long term obstructive jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A.; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-01-01

    Background With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of 3 murine models of obstructive jaundice. Methods C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Results 70% (7/10) of tCL mice died by Day 7, whereas majority 67% (10/15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. 19% (3/16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond Day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 days after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by Day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension as well as severe fibrosis by Day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. Conclusion The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice but long term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. PMID:27916350

  10. Scoping study of salt domes, basalts and crystalline rock as related to long term risk modeling for deep geologic disposal of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-11-01

    Purpose is to provide a preliminary geotechnical data base sufficient to initiate the development of Long-Term Risk Models for salt domes, basalt, and crystalline rock. Geology, hydrology, specific sites, and potential release pathways are considered for each type. A summary table of site suitability characteristics is presented

  11. Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Revoltella

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The private sector has used proxies such as sovereign credit ratings, spreads on sovereign bonds and spreads on sovereign credit default swaps (CDS to gauge country risk, even though these measures are pricing the risk of default of government bonds, which is different from the risks facing private participants in cross-border financing. Under normal market conditions, the CDS spreads are a very useful source of information on country risk. However, the recent crisis has shown that the CDS spreads might lead to some underpricing or overpricing of fundamentals in the case of excessively low or excessively high risk aversion. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of country risk that extracts the volatile, short-term market sentiment component from the sover eign CDS spread in order to improve its reliability in periods of market distress. We show that adverse market sentiment was a key driver of the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spreads of central and eastern European (CEE countries during the most severe phase of the crisis. We also show that our measure of country risk sheds some light on the observed stability of cross-border bank flows to CEE banks during the crisis.

  12. Long-term experiences with pluvial flood risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fritsch Kathrina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The awareness of pluvial (rain-related flood risk has grown significantly in the past few years but pluvial flooding is not handled with the same intensity throughout Europe. A variety of methods and modelling technologies are used to assess pluvial flood hazard and risk and to develop suggestions for flood mitigation measures. A brief overview of current model approaches is followed by the description of a modelling methodology that has been developed throughout the last 15 years with the focus on processing large scale areas. Experiences from several projects show that only high quality models of whole catchment areas yield results with enough accuracy to gain credibility among stakeholders, planners and the public. As a best practice example shows, the model approach also helps to plan effective decentral flood protection measures. To ensure successful flood risk management, a long-term preservation of flood risk awareness among local authorities and the public is necessary.

  13. Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

    2018-05-01

    The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Long-term risks of kidney living donation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maggiore, Umberto; Budde, Klemens; Heemann, Uwe

    2017-01-01

    Two recent matched cohort studies from the USA and Norway published in 2014 have raised some concerns related to the long-term safety of kidney living donation. Further studies on the long-term risks of living donation have since been published. In this position paper, Developing Education Science...... and Care for Renal Transplantation in European States (DESCARTES) board members critically review the literature in an effort to summarize the current knowledge concerning long-term risks of kidney living donation to help physicians for decision-making purposes and for providing information...... to the prospective live donors. Long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be partially foreseen by trying to identify donors at risk of developing ‘de novo’ kidney diseases during life post-donation and by predicting lifetime ESRD risk. However, lifetime risk may be difficult to assess in young donors...

  15. Modelo de previsão de value at risk utilizando volatilidade de longo prazo = Value at Risk prediction model using long term volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Tendo em vista a importância do Value at Risk (VaR como medida de risco para instituições financeiras e agências de risco, o presente estudo avaliou se o modelo ARLS é mais preciso no cálculo do VaR de longo prazo que os modelos tradicionais, dada sua maior adequação para a previsão da volatilidade. Considerando a utilização do VaR pelos agentes de mercado como medida de risco para o gerenciamento de portfólios é importante sua adequada mensuração. A partir de dados diários dos mercados de ações e cambial dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul foram calculadas as volatilidades futuras para 15 dias, 1 mês e 3 meses. Em seguida, calculou-se as medidas tradicionais de avaliação da precisão do VaR. Os resultados sugerem a superioridade do modelo ARLS para a previsão da volatilidade cambial, capaz de prever corretamente o número de violações em 33% dos casos, enquanto os modelos tradicionais não obtiveram um bom desempenho. Com relação ao mercado acionário, os modelos GARCH e ARLS apresentaram desempenho similar. O modelo GARCH é superior considerando a perda média quadrática. Esses resultados apontam para a escolha do modelo ARLS no cálculo do VaR de portfólios cambiais devido a maior precisão alcançada. Ajuda assim os agentes de mercado a melhor gerirem o risco de suas carteiras. Em relação ao mercado acionário, em função do desempenho similar dos modelos GARCH e ARLS, o modelo GARCH é o mais indicado devido a sua maior simplicidade e fácil implementação computacional. Having in mind the importance of Value at Risk (VaR as a risk measure for financial institutions and rating agencies, this study evaluated whether the ARLS model is more accurate in the calculation of the long term VaR than the traditional models, considering it is more appropriate for predicting the long-term volatility. Due to the fact that VaR s being used for market players as a measure of risk for the portfolio

  16. Modeling long-term risk to environmental and human systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and findings from the initial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Brandt, Charles A.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Miley, Terri B.; Napier, Bruce A.; Prendergast-Kennedy, Ellen L.; Nieves, Leslie A.

    2005-01-01

    The Groundwater/Vadose Zone (GW/VZ) Integration Project at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state is currently developing the tools and supporting data to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the region's economy and cultures from waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system of new and legacy models and data is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The environmental transport modules of the SAC modeling system provide estimates of contaminant concentrations from Hanford Site sources in a time-dependent manner in the vadose zone, groundwater, and the Columbia River and its associated sediments. The Risk/Impact Module uses these estimates of media- and time-specific concentrations to estimate potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and the cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in environmental transport on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show successful linking of codes and very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated

  17. Modelling and mapping long-term risks due to reactive nitrogen effects: An overview of LRTAP convention activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spranger, T.; Hettelingh, J.-P.; Slootweg, J.; Posch, M.

    2008-01-01

    Long-range transboundary air pollution has caused severe environmental effects in Europe. European air pollution abatement policy, in the framework of the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention) and the European Union Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme, has used critical loads and their exceedances by atmospheric deposition to design emission abatement targets and strategies. The LRTAP Convention International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping Critical Loads and Levels and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends (ICP M and M) generates European critical loads datasets to enable this work. Developing dynamic nitrogen flux models and using them for a prognosis and assessment of nitrogen effects remains a challenge. Further research is needed on links between nitrogen deposition effects, climate change, and biodiversity. - Sustainable targets for European air pollution abatement policy are defined using critical loads in an effects-based approach

  18. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  19. Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellia-Hervy, A.; Ducamp, F.

    1987-11-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

  20. [Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

    2012-05-01

    This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented.

  1. Using QMRAcatch - a stochastic hydrological water quality and infection risk model - to identify sustainable management options for long term drinking water resource planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derx, J.; Demeter, K.; Schijven, J. F.; Sommer, R.; Zoufal-Hruza, C. M.; Kromp, H.; Farnleitner, A.; Blaschke, A. P.

    2017-12-01

    River water resources in urban environments play a critical role in sustaining human health and ecosystem services, as they are used for drinking water production, bathing and irrigation. In this study the hydrological water quality model QMRAcatch was used combined with measured concentrations of human enterovirus and human-associated genetic fecal markers. The study area is located at a river/floodplain area along the Danube which is used for drinking water production by river bank filtration and further disinfection. QMRAcatch was previously developed to support long term planning of water resources in accordance with a public infection protection target (Schijven et al., 2015). Derx et al. 2016 previously used QMRAcatch for evaluating the microbiological quality and required virus-reduction targets at the study area for the current and robust future "crisis" scenarios, i.e. for the complete failure of wastewater treatment plants and infection outbreaks. In contrast, the aim of this study was to elaborate future scenarios based on projected climate and population changes in collaboration with urban water managers. The identified scenarios until 2050 include increased wastewater discharge rates due to the projected urban population growth and more frequent storm and overflow events of urban sewer systems following forecasted changes in climate and hydrology. Based on the simulation results for the developed scenarios sustainable requirements of the drinking water treatment system for virus reductions were re-evaluated to achieve the health risk target. The model outcomes are used to guide practical and scientifically sound management options for long term water resource planning. This paper was supported by FWF (Vienna Doctoral Program on Water Resource Systems W1219-N22) and the GWRS project (Vienna Water) as part of the "(New) Danube-Lower Lobau Network Project" funded by the Government of Austria and Vienna, and the European Agricultural Fund for Rural

  2. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  3. Waste transmutation with minimal fuel cycle long-term risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slessarev, I.; Salvatores, M.; Uematsu, M. [Direction des Reacteurs Nucleaires, Cadarache (France)

    1995-10-01

    Hybrid systems (source-driven subcritical reactors), are investigated at CEA, mainly from a conceptual point of view, in order to assess their potential to transmute radioactive wastes (mainly long-lived fission products, LLFP) and their potential to insure a minimal long-term radiological risk related both to the fuel inventory inside the system and to the full fuel cycle (mass flows, reprocessing transport, waste disposal). The physics of these systems has been explored and work is in progress both in the field of basic data and INC code validation, in the frame of international collaborations and in the field of conceptual design studies. The most interesting feature of subcritical source-driven system is related to the possibility to obtain an {open_quotes}excess{close_quotes} of neutrons per fission, which can be used to reduce the long-term radiological risk. A specific example will be discussed here.

  4. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  6. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, R F; Lederman, M; Tai, P; Wong, J K M

    2002-01-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  7. Elevated rheumatoid factor and long term risk of rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sune F; Bojesen, Stig E; Schnohr, Peter

    2012-01-01

    To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis.......To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis....

  8. Long-term mobile phone use and acoustic neuroma risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettersson, David; Mathiesen, Tiit; Prochazka, Michaela; Bergenheim, Tommy; Florentzson, Rut; Harder, Henrik; Nyberg, Gunnar; Siesjö, Peter; Feychting, Maria

    2014-03-01

    There is concern about potential effects of radiofrequency fields generated by mobile phones on cancer risk. Most previous studies have found no association between mobile phone use and acoustic neuroma, although information about long-term use is limited. We conducted a population-based, nation-wide, case-control study of acoustic neuroma in Sweden. Eligible cases were persons aged 20 to 69 years, who were diagnosed between 2002 and 2007. Controls were randomly selected from the population registry, matched on age, sex, and residential area. Postal questionnaires were completed by 451 cases (83%) and 710 controls (65%). Ever having used mobile phones regularly (defined as weekly use for at least 6 months) was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.18 (95% confidence interval = 0.88 to 1.59). The association was weaker for the longest induction time (≥10 years) (1.11 [0.76 to 1.61]) and for regular use on the tumor side (0.98 [0.68 to 1.43]). The OR for the highest quartile of cumulative calling time (≥680 hours) was 1.46 (0.98 to 2.17). Restricting analyses to histologically confirmed cases reduced all ORs; the OR for ≥680 hours was 1.14 (0.63 to 2.07). A similar pattern was seen for cordless land-line phones, although with slightly higher ORs. Analyses of the complete history of laterality of mobile phone revealed considerable bias in laterality analyses. The findings do not support the hypothesis that long-term mobile phone use increases the risk of acoustic neuroma. The study suggests that phone use might increase the likelihood that an acoustic neuroma case is detected and that there could be bias in the laterality analyses performed in previous studies.

  9. Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

  10. The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2016-12-01

    To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations. New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.

  11. Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renyi Cao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

  12. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  13. Murine model of long-term obstructive jaundice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-11-01

    With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of three murine models of obstructive jaundice. C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Overall, 70% (7 of 10) of tCL mice died by day 7, whereas majority 67% (10 of 15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. A total of 19% (3 of 16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 d after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension and severe fibrosis by day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice, but long-term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Achdou , Yves; Giraud , Pierre-Noel; Lasry , Jean-Michel; Lions , Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    International audience; A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is descr...

  15. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-12-15

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  16. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-01-01

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  17. A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

    2013-12-15

    This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azevedo, F.; Vale, Z.A.; Khodr, H.M.; Oliveira, P.B. Moura

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn. (author)

  19. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  20. Modeling flood events for long-term stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

    1985-01-01

    The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

  1. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  2. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne [Service de la Corrosion et du Comportement des Materiaux dans leur Environnement, CEA/Saclay - 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel [CIRIMAT UMR 5085, ENSIACET-INPT, 31077 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

    2004-07-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  3. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne; Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  4. Long-term visual health risks from solar ultraviolet radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waxler, M.

    1987-01-01

    Ocular exposure to the ultraviolet radiation (UV) contained in sunlight may result in long-term visual health problems. UV plays a role in the etiology of cataracts and possibly in the etiology of visual impairments associated with solar retinopathy, retinopathy of prematurity, ocular aging, cystoid macular edema, retinitis pigmentosa, and senile macular degeneration. The exact does relationships between known UV bioeffects and these ocular problems is, however, uncertain. Thus, there are questions about the extent to which protective measures should be taken to reduce UV exposure of the eye. This paper identifies the long-term visual health problems potentially associated with ocular exposure to solar UV; proposes worst-case assumptions for the role of solar UV in these visual problems; and recommends protective measures based on damage thresholds and worst-case assumptions

  5. Risk considerations for a long-term open-state of the radioactive waste storage facility Schacht Asse II. Variation of the parameter sets for radio-ecological modeling using the Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kueppers, Christian; Ustohalova, Veronika

    2013-01-01

    The risk considerations for a long-term open-state of the radioactive waste storage facility Schacht Asse II include the following issues: description of radio-ecological models for the radionuclide transport in the covering rock formations and determination of the radiation exposure, parameters of the radio-ecological and their variability, Monte-Carlo method application. The results of the modeling calculations include the group short-living radionuclides, long-living radionuclides, radionuclides in the frame of decay chains and sensitivity analyses with respect to the correlation of input data and results.

  6. Modelling of long term nitrogen retention in surface waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbfaß, S.; Gebel, M.; Bürger, S.

    2010-12-01

    In order to derive measures to reduce nutrient loadings into waters in Saxony, we calculated nitrogen inputs with the model STOFFBILANZ on the regional scale. Thereby we have to compare our modelling results to measured loadings at the river basin outlets, considering long term nutrient retention in surface waters. The most important mechanism of nitrogen retention is the denitrification in the contact zone of water and sediment, being controlled by hydraulic and micro-biological processes. Retention capacity is derived on the basis of the nutrient spiralling concept, using water residence time (hydraulic aspect) and time-specific N-uptake by microorganisms (biological aspect). Short time related processes of mobilization and immobilization are neglected, because they are of minor importance for the derivation of measures on the regional scale.

  7. Joint association of multimorbidity and work ability with risk of long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Jakobsen, Markus Due; Mortensen, Ole Steen

    2017-01-01

    at baseline. The fully adjusted model showed an association between number of chronic diseases and risk of LTSA. This association was stronger among employees with poor work ability (either physical or mental). Compared to employees with no diseases and good physical work ability, the risk estimate for LTSA...... with LTSA appears to be additive. Conclusions: Poor work ability combined with ≥1 chronic diseases is associated with high risk of long-term sickness absence in the general working population. Initiatives to improve or maintain work ability should be highly prioritized to secure sustainable employability...

  8. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achdou, Yves; Giraud, Pierre-Noel; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  9. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achdou, Yves, E-mail: achdou@ljll.univ-paris-diderot.fr [Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, UMR 7598, UPMC, CNRS (France); Giraud, Pierre-Noel [CERNA, Mines ParisTech (France); Lasry, Jean-Michel [Univ. Paris Dauphine (France); Lions, Pierre-Louis [Collège de France (France)

    2016-12-15

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  10. Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

    1999-07-01

    In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

  11. Long-Term Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Nitrogen Dioxide and Risk of Heart Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mette; Wendelboe Nielsen, Olav; Sajadieh, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    (NO2) were associated with incident heart failure. METHODS: In a cohort of 57,053 people 50-64 y of age at enrollment in the period 1993-1997, we identified 2,550 cases of first-ever hospital admission for heart failure during a mean follow-up time of 13.4 y. Present and historical residential....... CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to NO2 and road traffic noise was associated with higher risk of heart failure, mainly among men, in both single- and two-pollutant models. High exposure to both pollutants was associated with highest risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1272....

  12. Creating a Long-Term Diabetic Rabbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianpu Wang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was to create a long-term rabbit model of diabetes mellitus for medical studies of up to one year or longer and to evaluate the effects of chronic hyperglycemia on damage of major organs. A single dose of alloxan monohydrate (100 mg/kg was given intravenously to 20 young New Zealand White rabbits. Another 12 age-matched normal rabbits were used as controls. Hyperglycemia developed within 48 hours after treatment with alloxan. Insulin was given daily after diabetes developed. All animals gained some body weight, but the gain was much less than the age-matched nondiabetic rabbits. Hyperlipidemia, higher blood urea nitrogen and creatinine were found in the diabetic animals. Histologically, the pancreas showed marked beta cell damage. The kidneys showed significantly thickened afferent glomerular arterioles with narrowed lumens along with glomerular atrophy. Lipid accumulation in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes appeared as vacuoles. Full-thickness skin wound healing was delayed. In summary, with careful management, alloxan-induced diabetic rabbits can be maintained for one year or longer in reasonably good health for diabetic studies.

  13. Long-term risk of recurrent vascular events after young stroke: The FUTURE study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutten-Jacobs, L.C.A.; Maaijwee, N.A.M.M.; Arntz, R.M.; Schoonderwaldt, H.C.; Dorresteijn, L.D.A.; Vlugt, M.J. van der; Dijk, E.J. van; Leeuw, F.E. de

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Long-term data on recurrent vascular events after young stroke are limited. Our objective was to examine the long-term risk of recurrent vascular events after young stroke. METHODS: We prospectively included 724 consecutive patients with a first-ever transient ischemic attack (TIA),

  14. Risk factors for violence among long-term psychiatric in-patients: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study focuses on enduring patient related risk factors of violence, and investigates which long-term patients in Weskoppies Hospital (a specialist psychiatric hospital) are the most likely to commit violent acts. Method: Nursing statistics on violent incidents and other security breaches were collected for 262 long-term ...

  15. Perinatal risk indicators for long-term neurological morbidity among preterm neonates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teune, M.J.; Wassenaer, A.G. van; Dommelen, P. van; Mol, B.W.J.; Opmeer, B.C.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Many obstetric interventions are performed to improve long-term neonatal outcome. However, long-term neonatal outcome is usually not a primary outcome because it is time-consuming and expensive. The aim of this project was to identify different perinatal risk indicators and to develop

  16. Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modelling its Long-Term Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shulzhenko, S.

    2016-01-01

    Structure of Ukrainian energy sector, its current challenges, drivers of its development and possible long-term pathways, and methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modelling of long-term national energy development.(author).

  17. Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodroci, M. P.; Gafka, G. K.; Lutomski, M. G.; Maher, J. S.

    2012-01-01

    As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk - given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Hazard Level- 4 [THL] materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years

  18. Uncertainty Assessment in Long Term Urban Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    the probability of system failures (defined as either flooding or surcharge of manholes or combined sewer overflow); (2) an application of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology in which an event based stochastic calibration is performed; and (3) long term Monte Carlo simulations...

  19. Increased risk of hydrocephalus in long-term dialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, I-Kuan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Cheng, Yu-Kai; Chou, Che-Yi; Liang, Chih-Chia; Yen, Tzung-Hai; Sung, Fung-Chang

    2016-05-01

    The risk of hydrocephalus in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on dialysis has not been studied in depth. Using Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data, we identified 29 684 incident ESRD patients from 2000 to 2010, including 10 030 peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients and 19 654 hemodialysis (HD) patients. The control cohort consisted of 118 736 people randomly selected from those without kidney disease, frequency matched with ESRD patients by age, sex and index year. We also established propensity score-matched cohorts with 10 014 PD and 10 014 HD patients. The incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) of hydrocephalus were calculated until the end of 2011. Incidence rates of hydrocephalus were greater in HD and PD patients than in controls (8.44 and 11.0 versus 4.11 per 10 000 person-years, respectively), with an adjusted HR of 1.86 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43-2.41] for all ESRD patients compared with controls. A higher proportion of hydrocephalus patients underwent surgical bypass to relieve hydrocephalus in ESRD patients than controls, 40.7% (46/113) versus 24.5% (67/273), with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.11 (95% CI 1.33-3.36). Compared with controls, the adjusted HRs of communicating hydrocephalus for HD and PD patients were 1.77 (95% CI 1.22-2.55) and 2.51 (95% CI 1.61-3.89), respectively. The propensity score-matched analysis showed an HR of 0.72 (95% CI 0.42-1.23) for hydrocephalus in HD patients compared with PD patients. Patients with ESRD are at an increased risk of hydrocephalus. The risk difference between HD and PD patients is not significant. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  20. Modelling the long-term vertical dynamics of salt marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoccarato, Claudia; Teatini, Pietro

    2017-04-01

    Salt marshes are vulnerable environments hosting complex interactions between physical and biological processes with a strong influence on the dynamics of the marsh evolution. The estimation and prediction of the elevation of a salt-marsh platform is crucial to forecast the marsh growth or regression under different scenarios considering, for example, the potential climate changes. The long-term vertical dynamics of a salt marsh is predicted with the aid of an original finite-element (FE) numerical model accounting for the marsh accretion and compaction and for the variation rates of the relative sea level rise, i.e., land subsidence of the marsh basement and eustatic rise of the sea level. The accretion term considers the vertical sedimentation of organic and inorganic material over the marsh surface, whereas the compaction reflects the progressive consolidation of the porous medium under the increasing load of the overlying younger deposits. The modelling approach is based on a 2D groundwater flow simulator, which provides the pressure evolution within a compacting/accreting vertical cross-section of the marsh assuming that the groundwater flow obeys the relative Darcy's law, coupled to a 1D vertical geomechanical module following Terzaghi's principle of effective intergranular stress. Soil porosity, permeability, and compressibility may vary with the effective intergranular stress according to empirically based relationships. The model also takes into account the geometric non-linearity arising from the consideration of large solid grain movements by using a Lagrangian approach with an adaptive FE mesh. The element geometry changes in time to follow the deposit consolidation and the element number increases in time to follow the sedimentation of new material. The numerical model is tested on different realistic configurations considering the influence of (i) the spatial distribution of the sedimentation rate in relation to the distance from the marsh margin, (ii

  1. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  2. Long-term success and risk for marathon runners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schueller-Weidekamm, C.

    2010-01-01

    The popularity of marathon running has increased during recent years, which is reflected by the dramatic increase in the number of competitions and participants. Running a marathon itself does not usually cause any severe lesions of the joints but the problems mostly occur during training prior to the marathon. Before the event runners often question whether they can successfully take part in the competition and cope with the pain that might occur during running. In addition to the rare acute trauma, which is in general caused by falls or slipping, chronic injuries are of particular relevance for long distance running. This article describes the typical patterns of injuries to long distance runners, the positive effects of running a marathon and the risk factors for injuries. (orig.) [de

  3. Long term government debt, financial fragility, and sovereign default risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Kwaak, C.; van Wijnbergen, S.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the interaction between bank rescues, financial fragility and sovereign debt discounts. To that end we set up a model that contains balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries financing both capital expenditure of intermediate goods producers and government deficits. The financial

  4. Long-term nitrite inhalant exposure and cancer risk in MSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Anupriya; Uno, Hajime; Holman, Alex; Lorenz, David R.; Wolinsky, Steven M.; Gabuzda, Dana

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: Nitrite inhalants (poppers) are commonly used recreational drugs among MSM and were previously associated with elevated rates of high-risk sexual behavior, HIV and human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8) seroconversion, and transient immunosuppressive effects in experimental models. Whether long-term popper use is associated with cancer risk among MSM in the HAART era is unclear. Design: Prospective cohort study of cancer risk in 3223 HIV-infected and uninfected MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1996–2010. Methods: Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between heavy popper use (defined as daily or weekly use for at least 1 year) and risk of individual cancers or composite category of virus-associated cancers. Results: Among all participants, heavy popper use was not associated with increased risk of any individual cancers. Among HIV-uninfected men aged 50–70, heavy popper use was associated with increased risk of virus-associated cancer with causes linked to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus in models adjusted for demographics, number of sexual partners, immunological parameters (CD4+ cell counts or CD4+/CD8+ ratios), and hepatitis B and C viruses [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24, 1.05–9.96], or sexually transmitted infections (IRR 3.03, 95% CI, 1.01–9.09), as was cumulative use over a 5-year period (IRR 1.012, 95% CI 1.003–1.021; P = 0.007). There was no significant association between heavy popper use and virus-associated cancer in HIV-infected men. Conclusions: Long-term heavy popper use is associated with elevated risk of some virus-associated cancers with causes related to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus infections in older HIV-uninfected MSM independent of sexual behavior and immunological parameters. PMID:28441176

  5. The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osterrieder, Daniela; Schotman, Peter C.

    We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields...... are dominated by a level factor, which requires persistence in the spot interest rate. We find that a fractionally integrated process for the short rate plus a fractionally integrated specification for the price of risk leads to an analytically tractable almost affine term structure model that can explain...... the stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than the returns themselves. It therefore takes a volatile risk premium that is negatively correlated with innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility...

  6. Towards The Long-Term Preservation of Building Information Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beetz, Jacob; Dietze, Stefan; Berndt, René

    2013-01-01

    , no existing approach is able to provide a secure and efficient long-term preservation solution covering the broad spectrum of 3D architectural data, while at the same time taking into account the demands of institutional collectors like architecture libraries and archives as well as those of the private...... ICT-2011-9 project “DURAARK - Durable Architectural Knowledge” is presented. Initial preliminary results of the interdisciplinary working groups within this project ranging from the ingest and storage of voluminous sets of low-level point-cloud data from laser scans to semantically consistent...

  7. Long-term future risk of severe exacerbations: Distinct 5-year trajectories of problematic asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yii, A C A; Tan, J H Y; Lapperre, T S; Chan, A K W; Low, S Y; Ong, T H; Tan, K L; Chotirmall, S H; Sterk, P J; Koh, M S

    2017-09-01

    Assessing future risk of exacerbations is an important component of asthma management. Existing studies have investigated short- but not long-term risk. Problematic asthma patients with unfavorable long-term disease trajectory and persistently frequent severe exacerbations need to be identified early to guide treatment. To identify distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates among "problematic asthma" patients and develop a risk score to predict the most unfavorable trajectory. Severe exacerbation rates over five years for 177 "problematic asthma" patients presenting to a specialist asthma clinic were tracked. Distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates were identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Baseline predictors of trajectory were identified and used to develop a clinical risk score for predicting the most unfavorable trajectory. Three distinct trajectories were found: 58.5% had rare intermittent severe exacerbations ("infrequent"), 32.0% had frequent severe exacerbations at baseline but improved subsequently ("nonpersistently frequent"), and 9.5% exhibited persistently frequent severe exacerbations, with the highest incidence of near-fatal asthma ("persistently frequent"). A clinical risk score composed of ≥2 severe exacerbations in the past year (+2 points), history of near-fatal asthma (+1 point), body mass index ≥25kg/m 2 (+1 point), obstructive sleep apnea (+1 point), gastroesophageal reflux (+1 point), and depression (+1 point) was predictive of the "persistently frequent" trajectory (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84, sensitivity 72.2%, specificity 81.1% using cutoff ≥3 points). The trajectories and clinical risk score had excellent performance in an independent validation cohort. Patients with problematic asthma follow distinct illness trajectories over a period of five years. We have derived and validated a clinical risk score that accurately identifies patients who will have persistently

  8. Multilevel analysis of workplace and individual risk factors for long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl B; Lund, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine if psychosocial and physical work-environment factors predict long-term sickness absence (>8 weeks) at both the individual and the workplace level. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were collected in a prospective study in 52 Danish workplaces....... Psychosocial factors were aggregated as workplace means. We used multilevel logistic regression models with psychosocial factors as predictors of long-term sickness absence over 5 years based on data from a national absence register. RESULTS: Long-term sickness absence was predicted by physical work...

  9. Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2016-12-01

    Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although

  10. A simple score for estimating the long-term risk of fracture in patients with multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bazelier, M. T.; van Staa, T. P.; Uitdehaag, B. M. J.

    2012-01-01

    was converted into integer risk scores. Results: In comparison with the FRAX calculator, our risk score contains several new risk factors that have been linked with fracture, which include MS, use of antidepressants, use of anticonvulsants, history of falling, and history of fatigue. We estimated the 5- and 10......Objective: To derive a simple score for estimating the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in individual patients with MS. Methods: Using the UK General Practice Research Database linked to the National Hospital Registry (1997-2008), we identified patients with incident MS (n = 5......,494). They were matched 1:6 by year of birth, sex, and practice with patients without MS (control subjects). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture. We fitted the regression model with general and specific risk factors, and the final Cox model...

  11. Prevalence of risk factors for falls among elderly people living in long-term care homes

    OpenAIRE

    Pradnya Dhargave, PhD; Ragupathy Sendhilkumar, MSc, MPT

    2016-01-01

    Background: Falls are common among the geriatric population, causing frequent morbidity and mortality. There is an increased risk of fall among older people living in long-term care homes. Identifying risk factors for falls among older people living in old-age homes can help in the care and prevention of falls in this population. Aim: To evaluate the prevalence of various risk factors for falls among older people living in long-term care homes. Methods: A total of 163 elderly men and wo...

  12. A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

  13. Long-term risk assessment of radioactive waste disposal in geological formations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girardi, F.; Bertozzi, G.; D'Alessandro, M.

    1978-01-01

    Methods for long-term safety analysis of waste from nuclear power production in the European Community are under study at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) at Ispra, Italy. Aim of the work is to develop a suitable methodology for long-term risk assessment. The methodology under study is based on the assessment of the quantitative value of a system of barriers which may be interposed between waste and man. The barriers considered are: a) quality of the segregation afforded by the geological formation, b) chemical and physical stability of conditioned waste, c) interaction with geological environments (subsoil retention), d) distribution in the biosphere. The methodology is presently being applied to idealized test cases based on the following assumptions: waste are generated during 30 years of operations in a nuclear park (reprocessing + refabrication plant) capable of treating 1000 ton/yr of LWR fuel. High activity waste is conditioned as borosilicate glass (HAW) while low- and medium-level wastes are bituminized (BIP). All waste is disposed off into a salt formation. Transport to the biosphere, following the containment failure occurs by groundwater, with no delay due to retention on adsorbing media. Distribution into the biosphere occurs according to the terrestrial model indicated. Under these assumptions, information was drawn concerning environmental contamination, its levels, contributing elements and pathways to man

  14. A Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luong, Ming; Stevens, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success, a theoretical stages-of-growth model, explains long-term success in IT outsourcing relationships. Research showed the IT outsourcing relationship life cycle consists of four distinct, sequential stages: contract, transition, support, and partnership. The model was…

  15. Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk among Young People: Evidence from Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elish; McGuinness, Seamus; O'Connell, Philip J.

    2012-01-01

    Many young people have short spells of unemployment during their transition from school to work; however, some often get trapped in unemployment and risk becoming long-term unemployed. Much research has been undertaken on the factors that influence unemployment risk for young people during their school-to-work transition. However, very little is…

  16. A protocol improves GP recording of long-term sickness absence risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, Paul C. M.; Hogervorst, Wouter; ter Riet, Gerben; van Dijk, Frank

    2008-01-01

    Background If general practitioners (GPs) were better informed about patients' risks of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), they could incorporate these risk assessments into their patient management plans and cooperate more with occupational physicians to prevent LTSA. Aim To evaluate the

  17. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  18. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies; Modeliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang: application aux politiques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crassous, R

    2008-11-15

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks.

  19. A new mathematical programming model for long-term production scheduling considering geological uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Gholamnejad, J.; Moosavi, E.

    2012-01-01

    Determination of the optimum production schedules over the life of a mine is a critical mechanism in open pit mine planning procedures. Long-term production scheduling is used to maximize the net present value of the project under technical, financial, and environmental constraints. Mathematical programming models are well suited for optimizing long-term production schedules of open pit mines. There are two approaches to solving long-term production problems: deterministic- and uncertainty- b...

  20. Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

  1. Risk assessment in long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, T.; Guttmann, J.; Mohseni, A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents probabilistic risk-informed approaches that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff is planning to consider in preparing regulatory bases for long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) for up to 300 years. Due to uncertainties associated with long-term SNF storage, the NRC is considering a probabilistic risk-informed approach as well as a deterministic design-based approach. The uncertainties considered here are primarily associated with materials aging of the canister and SNF in the cask system during long-term storage of SNF. This paper discusses some potential risk contributors involved in long-term SNF storage. Methods of performance evaluation are presented that assess the various types of risks involved. They include deterministic evaluation, probabilistic evaluation, and consequence assessment under normal conditions and the conditions of accidents and natural hazards. Some potentially important technical issues resulting from the consideration of a probabilistic risk-informed evaluation of the cask system performance are discussed for the canister and SNF integrity. These issues are also discussed in comparison with the deterministic approach for comparison purposes, as appropriate. Probabilistic risk-informed methods can provide insights that deterministic methods may not capture. Two specific examples include stress corrosion cracking of the canister and hydrogen-induced cladding failure. These examples are discussed in more detail, in terms of their effects on radionuclide release and nuclear subcriticality associated with the failure. The plan to consider the probabilistic risk-informed approaches is anticipated to provide helpful regulatory insights for long-term storage of SNF that provide reasonable assurance for public health and safety. (authors)

  2. Modeling long-term aspects of nuclear waste disposal: the AEGIS experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, F.H.

    1983-01-01

    Modeling the long-term aspects of nuclear waste disposal has its roots in risk analysis of man-made systems like nuclear reactors. Analytical problems can be introduced into the performance assessment of a site-specific repository if an appreciation for the behavior of a natural earth system is not maintained. However, this should not preclude the application of historically useful analytical techniques like bounding strategies in favor of emerging, data-intensive techniques. The technical challenge is to apply existing technology and available data to a complex problem and produce a useful result

  3. Long-Term Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Nitrogen Dioxide and Risk of Heart Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mette; Wendelboe Nielsen, Olav; Sajadieh, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although air pollution and road traffic noise have been associated with higher risk of cardiovascular diseases, associations with heart failure have received only little attention. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate whether long-term exposure to road traffic noise and nitrogen dioxid...

  4. The Long-term Risk of Epilepsy after Febrile Seizures in susceptible subgroups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Mogens; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Sidenius, Per Christian

    2007-01-01

    A family history of seizures, preexisting brain damage, or birth complications may modify the long-term risk of epilepsy after febrile seizures. The authors evaluated the association between febrile seizures and epilepsy in a population-based cohort of 1.54 million persons born in Denmark (1978-2......, or low Apgar scores at 5 minutes....

  5. Long-term risks of inadequate management practices on the sustainability of agricultural soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de W.; Groenenberg, J.E.; Murányi, A.; Curlík, J.; Sefcík, P.; Römkens, P.F.A.M.; Reinds, G.J.; Bril, J.; Modin, A.K.; Sverdrup, H.U.; Alloway, B.J.

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the major result of a research project funded by the INCO-Copernicus programma of European Commission under Contract number ERB-IC15-CT98-0133. The study focused on the long-term environmental risk of soil acidification on: (i) mobilisation and leaching and (ii) plant uptake of

  6. Exposure to disturbing noise and risk of long-term sickness absence among office workers:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Thomas; Kristiansen, Jesper; Vinsløv Hansen, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To investigate the association between selfreported exposure to disturbing noise and risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) for more than two consecutive weeks among office workers. Methods LTSA was measured using register data that were linked to survey data from 2,883 office workers ...

  7. Offspring preterm birth and birth size are related to long-term risk of maternal diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naver, Klara Vinsand; Secher, Niels Jørgen; Ovesen, Per Glud

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate the association between gestational age, birth size, and the long-term risk of maternal diabetes. We conducted a nation-wide prospective follow-up study of the cohort of all Danish women with a singleton delivery in 1982/1983 (index delivery) and no history...

  8. Long-term Compliance with Oral 5-aminosalicylic Acid Therapy and Risk of Disease Recurrence in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prosberg, Michelle V; Vester-Andersen, Marianne K; Andersson, Mikael

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Noncompliance to long-term medical therapy is a well-known problem among patients treated for ulcerative colitis, but studies of long-term consequences in unselected patients are lacking. The authors aimed to determine the risk of recurrence according to long-term compliance with oral 5...

  9. Beyond post-marketing research and MedWatch: Long-term studies of drug risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2007-10-01

    Critics of the drug safety system have discussed many different potential reforms, ranging from mandatory registration of clinical trials to increasing the power of regulatory agencies, but few have discussed one of the most important ways of enhancing safety: increasing the number of long-term studies of medications. Long-term studies of the risks and benefits of drugs can provide useful information for regulators, healthcare professionals, and patients. Government funding agencies should lead the effort to conduct long-term studies of drugs, but private companies should also be required to lend financial support. Because cost-effectiveness is likely to be an important consideration in conducting this research, funding agencies should focus, at first, on drugs that are used to treat common, chronic conditions.

  10. Long-term increased risk of unemployment after young stroke: A long-term follow-up study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maaijwee, N.A.M.M.; Rutten-Jacobs, L.C.A.; Arntz, R.M.; Schaapsmeerders, P.; Schoonderwaldt, H.C.; Dijk, E.J. van; Leeuw, F.E. de

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence, excess risk, and risk factors of unemployment in patients after a TIA, ischemic stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage at ages 18 through 50 years, compared with nationwide controls. METHODS: We performed a hospital-based cohort study among 694 patients, aged

  11. A long term model of circulation. [human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A quantitative approach to modeling human physiological function, with a view toward ultimate application to long duration space flight experiments, was undertaken. Data was obtained on the effect of weightlessness on certain aspects of human physiological function during 1-3 month periods. Modifications in the Guyton model are reviewed. Design considerations for bilateral interface models are discussed. Construction of a functioning whole body model was studied, as well as the testing of the model versus available data.

  12. Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

    2014-12-01

    The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

  13. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  14. Long-term Morphological Modeling at Coastal Inlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-15

    that of Humboldt Bay, CA. The model reproduces reasonably well several geomorphic and hydrodynamic features of the inlet at Humboldt Bay. The...geometries, and model setup (e.g., sediment transport formulas) to investigate the controlling geomorphic parameters and the applicability of the CMS...2015 9 The model reproduces the general geomorphic features of Humboldt Bay. The ebb shoal volume is in the lower range of the estimated amount

  15. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crassous, R.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks

  16. Long-Term Calculations with Large Air Pollution Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambelas Skjøth, C.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Brandt, J.

    1999-01-01

    Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

  17. Modelling Tradescantia fluminensis to assess long term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex James

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple Poisson process model for the growth of Tradescantia fluminensis, an invasive plant species that inhibits the regeneration of native forest remnants in New Zealand. The model was parameterised with data derived from field experiments in New Zealand and then verified with independent data. The model gave good predictions which showed that its underlying assumptions are sound. However, this simple model had less predictive power for outputs based on variance suggesting that some assumptions were lacking. Therefore, we extended the model to include higher variability between plants thereby improving its predictions. This high variance model suggests that control measures that promote node death at the base of the plant or restrict the main stem growth rate will be more effective than those that reduce the number of branching events. The extended model forms a good basis for assessing the efficacy of various forms of control of this weed, including the recently-released leaf-feeding tradescantia leaf beetle (Neolema ogloblini.

  18. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

    2009-01-01

    In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

  19. Physical capacity and risk for long-term sickness absence: a prospective cohort study among 8664 female health care workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Charlotte Diana Nørregaard; Andersen, Lars Louis; Clausen, Thomas; Strøyer, Jesper; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Holtermann, Andreas

    2015-05-01

    To assess the prospective associations between self-reported physical capacity and risk of long-term sickness absence among female health care workers. Female health care workers answered a questionnaire about physical capacity and were followed in a national register of sickness absence lasting for two or more consecutive weeks during 1-year follow-up. Using Cox regression hazard ratio analyses adjusted for age, smoking, body mass index, physical workload, job seniority, psychosocial work conditions, and previous sickness absence, we modeled risk estimates for sickness absence from low and medium physical capacity. Low and medium aerobic fitness, low muscle strength, low flexibility, and low overall physical capacity significantly increased the risk for sickness absence with 20% to 34% compared with health care workers with high capacity. Low physical capacity increases the risk of long-term sickness absence among female health care workers.

  20. Long-term portfolio investments: New insight into return and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Abramov

    2015-09-01

    Emphasis is placed on the need for regular adjustments to long-term investors’ portfolios. As portfolios get older, those investors see a reduction in the returns’ dispersion, while differences in risk between various portfolios increase. This means that to maintain a fixed risk–return ratio for a portfolio as the horizon increases, an investor needs to increase the share of lower-risk financial assets during asset allocation process. This thesis becomes especially relevant in the context of retirement savings management.

  1. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available focused on SA Highveld, 2006 ? Keeping all CAMx inputs ?standardized?, leaving only meteorology as a variable ? CSIR 2010 Slide 11 CAMx data flow CAMx Met model USGS surface data Emissions Initial & boundary Haze & albedo Photolysis rates...

  2. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

    2012-05-22

    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  3. Risk Assessment and Control through Countermeasure System Iplementation for Long-term Crew Exposure to Microgravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernand, Jeremy M.

    2004-01-01

    Experience with the International Space Station (ISS) program demonstrates the degree to which engineering design and operational solutions must protect crewmembers from health risks due to long-term exposure to the microgravity environment. Risks to safety and health due to degradation in the microgravity environment include crew inability to complete emergency or nominal activities, increased risk of injury, and inability to complete safe return to the ground due to reduced strength or embrittled bones. These risks without controls slowly increase in probability for the length of the mission and become more significant for increasing mission durations. Countermeasures to microgravity include hardware systems that place a crewmember s body under elevated stress to produce an effect similar to daily exposure to gravity. The ISS countermeasure system is predominately composed of customized exercise machines. Historical treatment of microgravity countermeasure systems as medical research experiments unintentionally reduced the foreseen importance and therefore the capability of the systems to function in a long-term operational role. Long-term hazardous effects and steadily increasing operational risks due to non-functional countermeasure equipment require a more rigorous design approach and incorporation of redundancy into seemingly non- mission-critical hardware systems. Variations in the rate of health degradation and responsiveness to countermeasures among the crew population drastically increase the challenge for design requirements development and verification of the appropriate risk control strategy. The long-term nature of the hazards and severe limits on logistical re-supply mass, volume and frequency complicates assessment of hardware availability and verification of an adequate maintenance and sparing plan. Design achievement of medically defined performance requirements by microgravity countermeasure systems and incorporation of adequate failure tolerance

  4. Long-term use of lithium and risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pottegård, Anton; Ennis, Zandra Nymand; Hallas, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Lithium accumulates in the colon and inhibits the enzyme GSK-3β that possesses anti-carcinogenic effects. We therefore examined the association between lithium use and colorectal cancer risk in a nationwide study. METHODS: We used the Danish Cancer Registry to identify all patients...... diagnosed with incident colorectal adenocarcinoma during 2000-2012 (n=36 248). Using a matched case-control approach, we estimated the association between long-term use (⩾5 years) of lithium and risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Long-term use of lithium......, 0.66-1.55; distal colon: 1.52 (95% CI, 1.05-2.20); and rectum: 0.80 (95% CI, 0.50-1.30). CONCLUSIONS: Lithium use was not associated with an overall increased risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma. The variation by subsite warrants further investigation....

  5. Change in Vascular Access and Hospitalization Risk in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiling; Lazarus, J. Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

    2010-01-01

    Background and objectives: Conversion from central venous catheters to a graft or a fistula is associated with lower mortality risk in long-term hemodialysis (HD) patients; however, a similar association with hospitalization risk remains to be elucidated. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: We conducted a prospective observational study all maintenance in-center HD patients who were treated in Fresenius Medical Care, North America legacy facilities; were alive on January 1, 2007; and had baseline laboratory data from December 2006. Access conversion (particularly from a catheter to a fistula or a graft) during the 4-month period from January 1 through April 30, 2007, was linked using Cox models to hospitalization risk during the succeeding 1-year follow-up period (until April 30, 2008). Results: The cohort (N = 79,545) on January 1, 2007 had 43% fistulas, 29% catheters, and 27% grafts. By April 30, 2007, 70,852 patients were still on HD, and among 19,792 catheters initially, only 10.3% (2045 patients) converted to either a graft or a fistula. With catheters as reference, patients who converted to grafts/fistulas had similar adjusted hazard ratios (0.69) as patients on fistulas (0.71), while patients with fistulas/grafts who converted to catheters did worse (1.22), all P < 0.0001. Conclusions: Catheters remain associated with the greatest hospitalization risk. Conversion from a catheter to either graft or fistula had significantly lower hospitalization risk relative to keeping the catheter. Prospective studies are needed to determine whether programs that reduce catheters will decrease hospitalization risk in HD patients. PMID:20884778

  6. Suicide risk in long-term care facilities: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezuk, Briana; Rock, Andrew; Lohman, Matthew C; Choi, Moon

    2014-12-01

    Suicide risk is highest in later life; however, little is known about the risk of suicide among older adults in long-term care facilities (e.g., nursing homes and assisted living facilities). The goal of this paper is to review and synthesize the descriptive and analytic epidemiology of suicide in long-term care settings over the past 25 years. Four databases (PubMed, CINAHL Plus, Web of Knowledge, and EBSCOHost Academic Search Complete) were searched for empirical studies of suicide risk in nursing homes, assisted living, and other residential facilities from 1985 to 2013. Of the 4073 unique research articles identified, 37 were selected for inclusion in this review. Of the included reports, 21 were cross-sectional, 8 cohort, 3 qualitative, and 5 intervention studies. Most studies indicate that suicidal thoughts (active and passive) are common among residents (prevalence in the past month: 5-33%), although completed suicide is rare. Correlates of suicidal thoughts among long-term care residents include depression, social isolation, loneliness, and functional decline. Most studies examined only individual-level correlates of suicide, although there is suggestive evidence that organizational characteristics (e.g., bed size and staffing) may also be relevant. Existing research on suicide risk in long-term care facilities is limited but suggests that this is an important issue for clinicians and medical directors to be aware of and address. Research is needed on suicide risk in assisted living and other non-nursing home residential settings, as well as the potential role of organizational characteristics on emotional well-being for residents. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Long-term sick leave and its risk factors during pregnancy among Danish hospital employees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærlev, Linda; Jacobsen, Lene B.; Olsen, Jørn

    2004-01-01

    AIM: The authors sought to describe risk indicators of long-term sick leave during pregnancy among hospital employees. METHODS: A register-based study was undertaken of 4,852 female hospital employees aged 20-45 years from the second largest hospital in Denmark during 1995-99 based on job titles...... leave days than other hospital employees. Part-time work, previous sickness absence not related to pregnancy, and previous chronic back pain were risk factors for long-term sick leave as were much walking or standing, long working days, high work level, little practical support from supervisors...... women in a manner that optimizes their health and well-being....

  8. Assessment of risk for falls and its frequency among patients in a long term care institution

    OpenAIRE

    Varnelo, Ilona

    2016-01-01

    SUMMARY Vilnius University Faculty of Medicine Department of Nursing and Fundamentals of Internal Medicine Bachelor of Nursing Program Assessment of Risk for Falls and its Frequency Among Patients in a Long Term Care Institution Nursing Bachelor's thesis The Author: student Ilona Varnelo, nursing bachelor program at Vilnius University. Work Leader: assistant Viktorija Kielaitė, Vilnius University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Nursing and Fundamentals of Internal Medicine 16 – 05 – 2016,...

  9. Long-term risk of complications after mid-urethral sling IVS implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz Surkont

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available [b]Introduction[/b]. Results of short-term evaluation of multifilament microporous midurethral tape IVS differ a great deal. During the first year of implantation, erosions have been observed in 0%–26% of operated women. Long-term observations are rare. They suggest high risk of extrusion and infection even after years of implantation. [b]Objective[/b]. The purpose of the study was to evaluate long-term risk of complications after IVS implantation. Material and methods. Between 2001–2005, 72 women were operated on with the use of IVS mid-urethral tape. [b]Results[/b]. Two women had vaginal erosions during the first 3 months after the operation. Twelve women had vaginal erosions, purulent vaginal discharge, with IVS tape sticking out of the abdominal wall or vagina, and abdominal abscess. These complications were diagnosed between 9 months and 6 years after IVS implantation. The patients were operated on vaginally and open abdominally, 1–5 times because of complications after IVS implantation. [b]Conclusions[/b]. In the case of post-IVS complication, as much tape as possible should be excised. Long-term follow up on patients with IVS implantation should be recommended to the centres where IVS tape was used, even to patients after removal of the tape. Risk of erosion, extrusion and infection after midurethral multifilament microporous IVS tape implantation is too high – which is the reason it should no longer be used.

  10. Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koroush Khalighi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

  11. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  12. Long-Term Survival in Young Women: Hazards and Competing Risks after Thyroid Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroup, A. M.; Harrell, C. J.; Herget, K. A.

    2012-01-01

    Differentiated thyroid cancers (DTCs) are one of the most common and survivable cancers diagnosed in women. We examine factors associated with long-term survival and competing risks of death in women diagnosed with DTC under the age of 40 (<40) and aged 40 and older (40+). Methods. SEER data was used to identify DTCs diagnosed in women from 1975 to 2009. We examined overall (OS), disease-specific (DSS), other cancer (OCS), and non-cancer-related (NCS) survival using multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results. Observed survival was 97.2% for <40 (n=14,540) and 82.5% for 40+ (n=20,513). Distant stage (HR=1.96, 95% CI 1.23-3.07), non-Hispanic Black (HR=2.04, 95% CI 1.45-2.87), being unmarried (HR=1.26, 95% 1.03-1.54), and subsequent primary cancers (HR=4.63, 95% CI 3.76-5.71) were significant for OS in women <40. Age was an effect modifier for all survival outcomes. Racial disparities in NCS were most pronounced for young non-Hispanic black women (HR=3.36, 95% CI 2.17-5.22). Women in both age groups were more likely to die from other causes. Conclusions. Age at diagnosis remains one of the strongest prognostic factors for thyroid cancer survival. More directed efforts to ensure effective care for co morbid conditions are needed to reduce mortality from other causes.

  13. Long-term exercise adherence after public health training in at-risk adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riktrup Hansen Saida, Trine Gro; Juul Sørensen, Tina; Langberg, Henning

    2017-01-01

    and self-rated health. Predictors of long-term exercise adherence were assessed by logistic regression, estimating crude odds-ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) and adjusting for age, gender, education, smoking, moderate and vigorous exercise. Results: In total, 214 adults (mean age 58......Objectives: Sustainment of healthy exercise behavior is essential in preventing cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Few studies have explored long-term exercise adherence after an exercise referral scheme. The objective of this study was to examine 12-month exercise adherence after an exercise...... intervention program. Methods: This was a pragmatic follow-up study in at-risk people performed between June 2012 and January 2014. The main outcome measure was self-reported single-item exercise adherence. Secondary outcomes were change in exercise level, quality of life rated on a visual analog scale...

  14. Long term warranty and after sales service concept, policies and cost models

    CERN Document Server

    Rahman, Anisur

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents concepts, policies and cost models for various long-term warranty and maintenance contracts. It offers several numerical examples for estimating costs to both the manufacturer and consumer. Long-term warranties and maintenance contracts are becoming increasingly popular, as these types of aftersales services provide assurance to consumers that they can enjoy long, reliable service, and protect them from defects and the potentially high costs of repairs. Studying long-term warranty and service contracts is important to manufacturers and consumers alike, as offering long-term warranty and maintenance contracts produce additional costs for manufacturers / service providers over the product’s service life. These costs must be factored into the price, or the manufacturer / dealer will incur losses instead of making a profit. On the other hand, the buyer / consumer needs to weigh the cost of maintaining it over its service life and to decide whether or not these policies are worth purchasing....

  15. Final Technical Progress Report Long term risk from actinides in the environment: Modes of mobility; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas B. Kirchner

    2002-01-01

    The key source of uncertainty in assessing actinide mobility is the relative importance of transport by: (1) wind erosion, (2) water erosion, and (3) vertical migration. Each of these three processes depends on several environmental factors and they compete with one another. A scientific assessment of the long-term risks associated with actinides in surface soils depends on better quantifying each of these three modes of mobility. The objective from our EMSP study was to quantify the mobility of soil actinides by wind erosion, water erosion, and vertical migration at three semiarid sites where actinide mobility is a key technical, social and legal issue. This EMSP project was the first to evaluate all three factors at a site. The approach has been to investigate both short- and long-term issues based on field and lab studies and model comparisons. Our results demonstrate the importance of incorporating threshold responses into a modeling framework that accounts for environmental factors and natural disturbances that trigger large changes in actinide mobility. The study measured erosional losses of sediment and fallout cesium (an actinide analogue) from field plots located near WIPP in 1998. The results highlight the large effect of burning as a disturbance on contaminant transport and mobility via runoff and erosion. The results show that runoff, erosion, and actinide transport are (1) strongly site specific-differences in radionuclide transport between WIPP and Rocky Flats differed by a factor of twelve because of soil and vegetation differences, and (2) are strongly impacted by disturbances such as fire, which can increase runoff, erosion, and actinide transport by more than an order of magnitude. In addition, a laboratory experiment using soil columns was conducted to investigate the vertical transport of contaminants in sandy soils. Nine columns of soil collected from the vicinity of the WIPP site were prepared. The column consisted of a piece of PVC pipe 20 cm

  16. Final Technical Progress Report Long term risk from actinides in the environment: Modes of mobility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, Thomas B.

    2002-01-01

    The key source of uncertainty in assessing actinide mobility is the relative importance of transport by: (1) wind erosion, (2) water erosion, and (3) vertical migration. Each of these three processes depends on several environmental factors and they compete with one another. A scientific assessment of the long-term risks associated with actinides in surface soils depends on better quantifying each of these three modes of mobility. The objective from our EMSP study was to quantify the mobility of soil actinides by wind erosion, water erosion, and vertical migration at three semiarid sites where actinide mobility is a key technical, social and legal issue. This EMSP project was the first to evaluate all three factors at a site. The approach has been to investigate both short- and long-term issues based on field and lab studies and model comparisons. Our results demonstrate the importance of incorporating threshold responses into a modeling framework that accounts for environmental factors and natural disturbances that trigger large changes in actinide mobility. The study measured erosional losses of sediment and fallout cesium (an actinide analogue) from field plots located near WIPP in 1998. The results highlight the large effect of burning as a disturbance on contaminant transport and mobility via runoff and erosion. The results show that runoff, erosion, and actinide transport are (1) strongly site specific-differences in radionuclide transport between WIPP and Rocky Flats differed by a factor of twelve because of soil and vegetation differences, and (2) are strongly impacted by disturbances such as fire, which can increase runoff, erosion, and actinide transport by more than an order of magnitude. In addition, a laboratory experiment using soil columns was conducted to investigate the vertical transport of contaminants in sandy soils. Nine columns of soil collected from the vicinity of the WIPP site were prepared. The column consisted of a piece of PVC pipe 20 cm

  17. Final Technical Progress Report Long term risk from actinides in the environment: Modes of mobility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas B. Kirchner

    2002-03-22

    The key source of uncertainty in assessing actinide mobility is the relative importance of transport by: (1) wind erosion, (2) water erosion, and (3) vertical migration. Each of these three processes depends on several environmental factors and they compete with one another. A scientific assessment of the long-term risks associated with actinides in surface soils depends on better quantifying each of these three modes of mobility. The objective from our EMSP study was to quantify the mobility of soil actinides by wind erosion, water erosion, and vertical migration at three semiarid sites where actinide mobility is a key technical, social and legal issue. This EMSP project was the first to evaluate all three factors at a site. The approach has been to investigate both short- and long-term issues based on field and lab studies and model comparisons. Our results demonstrate the importance of incorporating threshold responses into a modeling framework that accounts for environmental factors and natural disturbances that trigger large changes in actinide mobility. The study measured erosional losses of sediment and fallout cesium (an actinide analogue) from field plots located near WIPP in 1998. The results highlight the large effect of burning as a disturbance on contaminant transport and mobility via runoff and erosion. The results show that runoff, erosion, and actinide transport are (1) strongly site specific-differences in radionuclide transport between WIPP and Rocky Flats differed by a factor of twelve because of soil and vegetation differences, and (2) are strongly impacted by disturbances such as fire, which can increase runoff, erosion, and actinide transport by more than an order of magnitude. In addition, a laboratory experiment using soil columns was conducted to investigate the vertical transport of contaminants in sandy soils. Nine columns of soil collected from the vicinity of the WIPP site were prepared. The column consisted of a piece of PVC pipe 20 cm

  18. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  19. Long-term Prostate-specific Antigen Velocity in Improved Classification of Prostate Cancer Risk and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsted, David Dynnes; Bojesen, Stig E; Kamstrup, Pia R

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether adding long-term prostate-specific antigen velocity (PSAV) to baseline PSA values improves classification of prostate cancer (PCa) risk and mortality in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether long-term PSAV improves classification of PCa risk...

  20. Bleeding Risk with Long-Term Low-Dose Aspirin: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Rodríguez, Luis A.; Martín-Pérez, Mar; Hennekens, Charles H.; Rothwell, Peter M.; Lanas, Angel

    2016-01-01

    Background Low-dose aspirin has proven effectiveness in secondary and primary prevention of cardiovascular events, but is also associated with an increased risk of major bleeding events. For primary prevention, this absolute risk must be carefully weighed against the benefits of aspirin; such assessments are currently limited by a lack of data from general populations. Methods Systematic searches of Medline and Embase were conducted to identify observational studies published between 1946 and 4 March 2015 that reported the risks of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding or intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) with long-term, low-dose aspirin (75–325 mg/day). Pooled estimates of the relative risk (RR) for bleeding events with aspirin versus non-use were calculated using random-effects models, based on reported estimates of RR (including odds ratios, hazard ratios, incidence rate ratios and standardized incidence ratios) in 39 articles. Findings The incidence of GI bleeding with low-dose aspirin was 0.48–3.64 cases per 1000 person-years, and the overall pooled estimate of the RR with low-dose aspirin was 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2–1.7). For upper and lower GI bleeding, the RRs with low-dose aspirin were 2.3 (2.0–2.6) and 1.8 (1.1–3.0), respectively. Neither aspirin dose nor duration of use had consistent effects on RRs for upper GI bleeding. The estimated RR for ICH with low-dose aspirin was 1.4 (1.2–1.7) overall. Aspirin was associated with increased bleeding risks when combined with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, clopidogrel and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors compared with monotherapy. By contrast, concomitant use of proton pump inhibitors decreased upper GI bleeding risks relative to aspirin monotherapy. Conclusions The risks of major bleeding with low-dose aspirin in real-world settings are of a similar magnitude to those reported in randomized trials. These data will help inform clinical judgements regarding the use of low-dose aspirin

  1. Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

    2006-01-01

    The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

  2. Does long-term coffee intake reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pimentel Gustavo D

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This review reports the evidence for a relation between long-term coffee intake and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Numerous epidemiological studies have evaluated this association and, at this moment, at least fourteen out of eighteen cohort studies revealed a substantially lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus with frequent coffee intake. Moderate coffee intake (≥4 cups of coffee/d of 150 mL or ≥400 mg of caffeine/d has generally been associated with a decrease in the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Besides, results of most studies suggest a dose-response relation, with greater reductions in type 2 diabetes mellitus risk with higher levels of coffee consumption. Several mechanisms underlying this protective effect, as well as the coffee components responsible for this association are suggested. Despite positive findings, it is still premature to recommend an increase in coffee consumption as a public health strategy to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus. More population-based surveys are necessary to clarify the long-term effects of decaffeinated and caffeinated coffee intake on the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

  3. Impact of long term care and mortality risk in community care and nursing homes populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Hugo; Mateus, Céu; Rosati, Nicoletta

    To identify the survival time, the mortality risk factors and the individuals' characteristics associated with cognitive and physical status at discharge, among the Portuguese long-term care (LTC) populations. Home-and-Community-Based Services (HCBS) and three types of Nursing Homes (NH). 20,984 individuals admitted and discharged in 2015. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox Proportional Hazards Models were used to study the mortality risk; the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to identify the number of individuals with cognitive and physical changes between admission and discharge; two cumulative odds ordinal logistic regressions to predict the cognitive and physical dependence levels at discharge RESULTS: The mortality rate at HCBS was 30%, and 17% at the NH, with a median survival time of 173 and 200 days, respectively. The main factors associated with higher mortality were older age, male gender, family/neighbour support, neoplasms and cognitive/physical dependence at admission. In NH/HCBS, 26%/18% of individuals improve their cognitive status, while in physical status the proportion was 38%/27%, respectively. Finally, older age, being illiterate and being classified at the lowest cognitive and physical status at admission decrease the likelihood of achieving a higher level of cognitive and physical independence at discharge. The adoption of a robust and complete assessment tool, the definition of guidelines to enable a periodical assessment of individuals' autonomy and the adoption of benchmark metrics allowing the comparison of results between similar units are some of the main goals to be taken into account for future developments of this care in Portugal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Self-reported noise exposure as a risk factor for long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Lund, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    men and women when adjusting for demographic factors and health behavior. After further adjustment for physical workload at work the association between noise exposure and sickness absence disappeared for women, but not for men. Men that reported to be exposed to loud noise between one......Self-reported noise exposure is on the rise in Denmark. Little is known, however, about the social consequences, including sickness absence, of noise exposure. The aim of this paper was to investigate the association between self-reported noise exposure and long-term sickness absence....... The association was investigated using the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze outcomes in Danish register data on the basis of Danish survey data (5357 employees aged 18-69 in 2000). The analyses showed that self-reported noise exposure was significantly associated with long-term sickness absence for both...

  5. Chaos in long-term behavior of some Bianchi-type VIII models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halpern, P

    1987-01-01

    The long-term behavior of Bianchi-type VIII models with three different types of stress-energy tensors are examined and compared. The vacuum model, a matter-filled model, and a model with an electromagnetic field are considered. In each case the existence of chaotic behavior and transitions to chaotic behavior are discussed.

  6. Challenges Associated With Managing Suicide Risk in Long-Term Care Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Riley, Alisa; Nadorff, Michael R; Conwell, Yeates; Edelstein, Barry

    2013-06-01

    Little information about suicidal ideation and behavior in long-term care (LTC) facilities is available. Nonetheless, the implementation of the Minimum Data Set 3.0 requires that LTC facilities screen their residents for suicide risk and have protocols in place to effectively manage residents' responses. In this article, the authors briefly discuss the risk factors of suicide in the elderly and the problems that suicidal ideation and behavior pose in the LTC environment. The authors explain issues that arise when trying to manage suicide risk in the elderly LTC population with general, traditional approaches. These inherent issues make it difficult to develop an effective protocol for managing suicide risk in LTC facilities, leading the authors to propose their own framework for assessing and managing suicide risk in the LTC setting.

  7. Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlato, Giuseppe; Marrelli, Daniele; Accordini, Simone; Bencivenga, Maria; Di Leo, Alberto; Marchet, Alberto; Petrioli, Roberto; Zoppini, Giacomo; Muggeo, Michele; Roviello, Franco; de Manzoni, Giovanni

    2015-06-07

    curative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy. Survival curves in the two different histotypes (intestinal and mixed/diffuse) were superimposed in the first three years of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise, survival curves as a function of site (fundus vs body/antrum) started to diverge after the first year. On the contrary, survival curves differed among age classes from the very beginning, due to different post-operative mortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged 65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years; this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model was violated, as regards age, site and histology. To cope with this problem, multivariable survival analysis was performed by separately considering either the first two years of follow-up or subsequent years. Histology and site were significant predictors only after two years, while T and N, although significant both in the short-term and in the long-term, became less important in the second part of follow-up. Increasing age was associated with higher mortality in the first two years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival time when performing survival analysis allows to distinguish between short-term and long-term risk factors. Alternative statistical solutions could be to exclude post-operative mortality, to introduce in the model time-dependent covariates or to stratify on variables violating proportionality assumption.

  8. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  9. Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Verschuren, W M Monique

    2015-10-01

    Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Population-based cohort study. Risk factors were measured at baseline (1987-1991) among 5574 cardiovascular disease-free adults aged 20-59 years. They were classified into four risk categories according to smoking status, presence of diabetes and widely accepted cut-off values for blood pressure, total cholesterol/HDL-ratio and body mass index. Categories were subdivided (maintenance, deterioration, improvement) based on risk factor levels at six and 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cardiovascular disease incidence 5-10 years following the risk-change period were fitted using Cox proportional hazards models. Only 12% of participants were low risk at baseline, and only 7% maintained it. Participants who maintained a low risk profile over 11 years had seven times lower risk of cardiovascular disease (HR: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.05-0.41) than participants with long-term high risk profile, whereas those low risk at baseline whose profile deteriorated had three times lower risk (HR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.71). Our results suggest that, within each baseline risk profile group, compared with a stable profile, improving profiles may be associated with up to two-fold lower HRs, and deteriorating profiles with about two-fold higher HRs. Our study, using long-term risk profiles, demonstrates the full benefits of low risk profile. These findings underscore the importance of achieving and maintaining low risk from young adulthood onwards. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  10. Household income and risk-of-poverty of parents of long-term childhood cancer survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mader, Luzius; Roser, Katharina; Baenziger, Julia; Tinner, Eva Maria; Scheinemann, Katrin; Kuehni, Claudia Elisabeth; Michel, Gisela

    2017-08-01

    Taking care of children diagnosed with cancer affects parents' professional life and may place the family at risk-of-poverty. We aimed to (i) compare the household income and risk-of-poverty of parents of childhood cancer survivors (CCS) to parents of the general population, and (ii) identify sociodemographic and cancer-related factors associated with risk-of-poverty. As part of the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we sent a questionnaire to parents of CCS aged 5-15 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis. Information on parents of the general population came from the Swiss Household Panel (parents with ≥1 child aged 5-15 years). Risk-of-poverty was defined as having a monthly household income of poverty. We included parents of 383 CCS and 769 control parent households. Parent-couples of CCS had a lower household income (P trend poverty (30.4% vs. 19.3%, P = 0.001) compared to control parent-couples. Household income and risk-of-poverty of single parents of CCS was similar to control single parents. Parents of CCS were at higher risk-of-poverty if they had only standard education (OR mother = 3.77 [where OR is odds ratio], confidence interval [CI]: 1.61-8.82; OR father = 8.59, CI: 4.16-17.72) and were from the German language region (OR = 1.99, CI: 1.13-3.50). We found no cancer-related risk factors. Parents of long-term CCS reported lower household income and higher risk-of-poverty than control parents. Support strategies may be developed to mitigate parents' risk-of-poverty in the long term, particularly among parents with lower education. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rublee Dale

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of the cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor celecoxib (Celebrex, Pfizer Inc, USA have produced conflicting results. The recent controversy over the cardiovascular (CV risks of rofecoxib and other coxibs has renewed interest in the economic profile of celecoxib, the only coxib now available in the United States. The objective of our study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of celecoxib compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old osteoarthritis (OA patients with average risks of upper gastrointestinal (UGI complications who require chronic daily NSAID therapy. Methods We used decision analysis based on data from the literature to evaluate cost-effectiveness from a modified societal perspective over patients' lifetimes, with outcomes expressed as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained. Sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the impacts of advancing age, CV thromboembolic event risk, different analytic horizons and alternate treatment strategies after UGI adverse events. Results Our main findings were: 1 the base model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER for celecoxib versus nsNSAIDs was $31,097 per QALY; 2 the ICER per QALY was $19,309 for a model in which UGI ulcer and ulcer complication event risks increased with advancing age; 3 the ICER per QALY was $17,120 in sensitivity analyses combining serious CV thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, CV death risks with base model assumptions. Conclusion Our model suggests that chronic celecoxib is cost-effective versus nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old OA patients with average risks of UGI events.

  12. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  13. Long-term sick leave and its risk factors during pregnancy among Danish hospital employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaerlev, Linda; Jacobsen, Lene B; Olsen, Jørn; Bonde, Jens Peter

    2004-01-01

    The authors sought to describe risk indicators of long-term sick leave during pregnancy among hospital employees. A register-based study was undertaken of 4,852 female hospital employees aged 20-45 years from the second largest hospital in Denmark during 1995-99 based on job titles, working time, sick leave, and births combined with a survey among a total of 773 women who had been pregnant during their employment (response rate 85%). Altogether 236 (31%) were on sick leave for at least 10% of their scheduled work time during their latest pregnancy and 169 (22%) had been absent at least 20% of the time. The pregnant women had an average sickness absence of 6.1 days per month, non-pregnant women 0.95 days per month. Sick leave was more frequent in late than in early gestation. Women employed as nursing aides or hospital orderlies, launderers, and nurses had more sick leave days than other hospital employees. Part-time work, previous sickness absence not related to pregnancy, and previous chronic back pain were risk factors for long-term sick leave as were much walking or standing, long working days, high work level, little practical support from supervisors and colleagues, low job control, much lifting and night or shift work. Sick leave was unrelated to family size, support from the family and number of working years. Long-term sick leave during pregnancy was frequent and to some extent predictable. Efforts should be made to organize work for pregnant women in a manner that optimizes their health and well-being.

  14. Risk evaluation of cosmic-ray exposure in long-term manned space mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujitaka, Kazunobu; Majima, Hideyuki; Ando, Koichi; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Masao

    1999-03-01

    Long-term manned space missions are planned to be implemented within the first two decades of the 21st century. The International Space Station (ISS) will be ready to run, and a plan to visit Mars is also under way. Humans will live in space for long periods of time and we are planning to do experiments in space to examine various aspects of space science. The main risk in long-term manned space missions is large exposure to space radiation. Human safety must be ensured in space where exposure to cosmic rays is almost 1 mSv a day. As such missions will inevitably result in significant exposure for astronauts, there is increasing need to protect them adequately based on both physical and biological knowledge. A good method to evaluate realistic risk associated with space missions will be in urgent demand. At the National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS), Chiba, Japan, a research institutes of the Science Technology Agency of Japan, high energy cosmic radiation can be simulated only with heavy ion irradiation accelerated by the particle accelerator, Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator (HIMAC). Research to evaluate risk of space radiation, including physical measurement techniques, protective effects, biological effects and risk adjustment, aging, neuronal cell damage and cancer risk are undergoing. We organized a workshop of the latest topics and experimental results of physics and biology related to space radiation supported by Japan Science and Technology Corporation (JST). This workshop was held as a satellite meeting associated with the 32nd Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Scientific Assembly (Nagoya, July 12-19th, 1998). This volume is an extended proceedings of the workshop. The proceedings contain six main subjects covering the latest information on Risk Evaluation of Cosmic-Ray Exposure in Long-Term Manned Space Mission'. 1. Risk Estimation of Heavy Ion Exposure in Space. 2. Low Dose-Rate Effects and Microbeam-Related Heavy Ions. 3. Chromosome and

  15. Preeclampsia and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease: what do obstetrician-gynecologists know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Preeclampsia (PE), a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy affects 2-8% of women and is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk later in life. There is little information about the knowledge of obstetrician-gynecologists in German outpatient care setting regarding the future health risk of PE and knowledge of the current guidelines on treatment and counseling patients post PE. This study aimed to assess whether obstetrician-gynecologists are aware of PE’s association with maternal long-term adverse outcomes and providing appropriate counseling. Methods A random sample of 500 obstetrician-gynecologists in the federal state of Lower Saxony was mailed a survey and a reminder with a second copy of the survey. The questionnaire elicited both personal information, and knowledge on future disease risks, e.g. cardiovascular disease (CVD) and current guidelines as well as on counseling practice. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the responses. Results A total of 212 obstetrician-gynecologists (42.4%) responded to the questionnaire. A large proportion of physicians stated that PE was associated with a higher risk for the development for hypertension (86.6%), stroke (78.5%) and kidney disease (78.0%). Of the participants 75.8% reported that women after PE have a shorter life expectancy. Respondents with knowledge of the current guidelines of the German Association of Obstetrics and Gynecology concerning follow up and risk management of PE (45.2%) were more often aware of the development of CVD and stroke and counseled patients on self -blood-pressure measurement, meaning and long-term-risks of PE and attached importance to family history of PE compared to physicians with no knowledge of the guidelines. Conclusion Although the majority of obstetrician-gynecologists were aware of higher CVD risk after PE, weaknesses exist in the follow up care and counseling of these patients. These deficiencies would be amendable to directed educational

  16. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

    2012-01-01

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  17. Long-term BPA infusions. Evaluation in the rat brain tumor and rat spinal cord models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coderre, J.A.; Micca, P.L.; Nawrocky, M.M.; Joel, D.D.; Morris, G.M.

    2000-01-01

    In the BPA-based dose escalation clinical trial, the observations of tumor recurrence in areas of extremely high calculated tumor doses suggest that the BPA distribution is non-uniform. Longer (6-hour) i.v. infusions of BPA are evaluated in the rat brain tumor and spinal cord models to address the questions of whether long-term infusions are more effective against the tumor and whether long-term infusions are detrimental in the central nervous system. In the rat spinal cord, the 50% effective doses (ED 50 ) for myeloparesis were not significantly different after a single i.p. injection of BPA-fructose or a 6 hour i.v. infusion. In the rat 9L gliosarcoma brain tumor model, BNCT following 2-hr or 6-hr infusions of BPA-F produced similar levels of long term survival. (author)

  18. Long-Term Metastatic Risk after Biopsy of Posterior Uveal Melanoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagger, Mette; Smidt-Nielsen, Isabel; Andersen, Mette K

    2018-01-01

    PURPOSE: Biopsy of posterior uveal melanoma continues to be intensely debated in terms of the clinical benefits and safety profile. Although several studies have reported a low frequency of ocular complications after tumor biopsy, the potential long-term risk of iatrogenic dissemination remains...... unresolved. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of metastatic disease after biopsy of posterior uveal melanoma. DESIGN: Retrospective nationwide cohort study linking clinical and histopathologic records to pathology, cancer, and mortality registries. PARTICIPANTS: All patients with posterior...... uveal melanoma treated in Denmark between January 1985 and December 2016. METHODS: For each patient, we recorded detailed information on age, gender, tumor characteristics, and diagnostic and therapeutic measures, including tumor biopsy, if any, and the primary treating hospital. Absolute risk...

  19. The Long-term Risk of Epilepsy after Febrile Seizures in susceptible subgroups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Mogens; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Sidenius, Per Christian

    2007-01-01

    A family history of seizures, preexisting brain damage, or birth complications may modify the long-term risk of epilepsy after febrile seizures. The authors evaluated the association between febrile seizures and epilepsy in a population-based cohort of 1.54 million persons born in Denmark (1978......-2002), including 49,857 persons with febrile seizures and 16,481 persons with epilepsy. Overall, for children with febrile seizures compared with those without such seizures, the rate ratio for epilepsy was 5.43 (95% confidence interval: 5.19, 5.69). The risk remained high during the entire follow.......3). In conclusion, persons with a history of febrile seizures had a higher rate of epilepsy that lasted into adult life, but less than 7 percent of children with febrile seizures developed epilepsy during 23 years of follow-up. The risk was higher for those who had a family history of epilepsy, cerebral palsy...

  20. Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Steven Ahl

    2007-01-01

    Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

  1. Long-term effects of earthquake experience of young persons on cardiovascular disease risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Yu, Lulu; Song, Mei; Wang, Lan; Ji, Chunpeng

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the study was to study the long-term effect on cardiovascular disease risk factors of stress from direct experience of an earthquake as a young person. Material and methods We selected workers born between July 1, 1958 and July 1, 1976 who were examined at Kailuan General Hospital between May and October of 2013. Data on cardiovascular events were taken during the workers’ annual health examination conducted between 2006 and 2007. All subjects were divided into three groups according to their experience of the Tangshan earthquake of July 28, 1976, as follows: control group; exposed group 1 and exposed group 2. We compared cardiovascular disease risk factors between the three groups as well as by gender and age. Results One thousand one hundred and ninety-six workers were included in the final statistical analysis. Among all subjects, resting heart rate (p = 0.003), total cholesterol (p earthquake compared with unexposed controls, but were unrelated to loss of relatives. No significant difference in triglyceride levels was observed between the three groups (p = 0.900). Further refinement showed that the effects were restricted to males 40 years of age or older at the time of analysis, but were due primarily to age at the time of earthquake exposure (p = 0.002, p Earthquake experience in the early years of life has long-term effects on adult resting heart rate, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose, especially among men. PMID:28144258

  2. Risk factors and long-term changes of non-arteritis anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying-Xin Cui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available AIM:To investigate the risk factors and long-term changes of non-arteritis anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy(NAION. METHODS:Three hundred and sixty cases of patients with NAION in our hospital from January 2010 to Juny 2015 were used as patients group and another 400 people undergoing health examination were used as control group. The clinical data was collected. Optical coherence tomography(OCTwas performed. RESULTS:There were significant difference on gender, history of diabetes or hypertension, arteriosclerosis history, disc area, cup area, rim area, cup/disc area ratio, horizontal cup-disc ratio, vertical cup-disc ratio, FBG and TG of two groups(PPP>0.05. CONCLUSION:Male, with diabetes, history of hypertension, arteriosclerosis history, disc area, cup area, rim area, cup/disc area ratio, horizontal cup-disc ratio, vertical cup-disc ratio, FBG and TG are independent risk factors of NAION. Long-term damage of RNFL may not aggravate.

  3. Radiobiology in clinical radiation therapy: Long term risks - Carcinogenic, hereditary, and teratogenetic effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, David J.

    1997-01-01

    The long-term risks induced by radiation are of much concern to patients and clinicians alike. As an example, perceived radiation risks are frequently cited in a woman's decision to choose a radical mastectomy over lumpectomy + radiation. In consequence, the actual radiation risks are often considerably overstated, or unreasonably downplayed. In this lecture we will discuss just what is known about the long term risks following radiotherapy, both from the human experience and from the laboratory. We will discuss risks both to the patient and to radiotherapy personnel. A good deal is known about the carcinogenic effects of high and low doses of radiation, in large part thanks to the careful study of the survivors of the atomic bombing in Japan, as well as studies of individuals exposed to medical x rays. It is possible to make an estimate, which is probably good to within a factor of, perhaps, three to five, of the cancer risks faced by a patient of a particular age and sex who is going to undergo a particular radiotherapeutic regimen. It is also possible to make an estimate of the risks faced by radiotherapy and nursing staff exposed to low doses. Brachytherapy related risk estimates are likely to be somewhat more uncertain, due to the poorly known sparing effects of the low dose rates used; for the radiotherapy personnel in brachytherapy, because of the doses which can be received, the risks can be quite significant. A recent complication in external-beam radiotherapy is the advent of high-energy linacs, which can produce a significant fast neutron dose which, dose for dose, may be ten to fifty times more carcinogenic than gamma rays. Data relating to the risks of hereditary effects of radiation come almost entirely from laboratory experiments in animals. Studies involving several million mice form the basis of most of our current understanding of hereditary effects. The results of these studies indicate that radiation is a relatively inefficient mutagen. The

  4. Radiobiology in clinical radiation therapy - Part IV: Long term risks - Carcinogenic, hereditary, and teratogenetic effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, David J.

    1996-01-01

    The long-term risks induced by radiation are of much concern to patients and clinicians alike. As an example, perceived radiation risks are frequently cited in a woman's decision to choose a radical mastectomy over lumpectomy + radiation. In consequence, the actual radiation risks are often considerably overstated, or unreasonably downplayed. In this lecture we will discuss just what is known about the long term risks following radiotherapy, both from the human experience and from the laboratory. We will discuss risks both to the patient and to radiotherapy personnel. A good deal is known about the carcinogenic effects of high and low doses of radiation, in large part thanks to the careful study of the survivors of the atomic bombing in Japan, as well as studies of individuals exposed to medical x rays. It is possible to make an estimate, which is probably good to within a factor of, perhaps, three to five, of the cancer risks faced by a patient of a particular age and sex who is going to undergo a particular radiotherapeutic regimen. It is also possible to make an estimate of the risks faced by radiotherapy and nursing staff exposed to low doses. Brachytherapy related risk estimates are likely to be somewhat more uncertain, due to the poorly known sparing effects of the low dose rates used; for the radiotherapy personnel in brachytherapy, because of the doses which can be received, the risks can be quite significant. A recent complication in external-beam radiotherapy is the advent of high-energy linacs, which can produce a significant fast neutron dose which, dose for dose, may be ten to fifty times more carcinogenic than gamma rays. Data relating to the risks of hereditary effects of radiation come almost entirely from laboratory experiments in animals. Studies involving several million mice form the basis of most of our current understanding of hereditary effects. The results of these studies indicate that radiation is a relatively inefficient mutagen. The

  5. Individualized Fracture Risk Feedback and Long-term Benefits After 10 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Feitong; Wills, Karen; Laslett, Laura L; Riley, Malcolm D; Oldenburg, Brian; Jones, Graeme; Winzenberg, Tania

    2018-02-01

    This study aimed to determine if beneficial effects of individualized feedback of fracture risk on osteoporosis preventive behaviors and bone mineral density observed in a 2-year trial were sustained long-term. This was a 10-year follow-up of a 2-year RCT in 470 premenopausal women aged 25-44 years, who were randomized to one of two educational interventions (the Osteoporosis Prevention and Self-Management Course [OPSMC] or an osteoporosis information leaflet) and received tailored feedback of their relative risk of fracture in later life (high versus normal risk groups). Bone mineral density of lumbar spine and femoral neck were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Physical activity, dietary calcium intake, calcium and vitamin D supplements, and smoking status were measured by questionnaires. From 2 to 12 years, the high-risk group had a smaller decrease in femoral neck bone mineral density (β=0.023, 95% CI=0.005, 0.041 g/cm 2 ) but similar lumbar spine bone mineral density change as the normal-risk group. They were more likely to use calcium (relative risk=1.66, 95% CI=1.22, 2.24) and vitamin D supplements (1.99, 95% CI=1.27, 3.11). The OPSMC had no effects on bone mineral density change. Both high-risk (versus normal-risk) and the OPSMC groups (versus leaflet) had a more favorable pattern of smoking behavior change (relative risk=1.85, 95% CI=0.70, 4.89 and relative risk=2.27, 95% CI=0.86, 6.01 for smoking cessation; relative risk=0.33, 95% CI=0.13, 0.80 and relative risk=0.28, 95% CI=0.10, 0.79 for commenced or persistent smoking). Feedback of high fracture risk to younger women was associated with long-term improvements in osteoporosis preventive behaviors and attenuated femoral neck bone mineral density loss. Therefore, this could be considered as a strategy to prevent osteoporosis. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) NCT00273260. Copyright © 2018 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  6. Addressing homelessness among people with mental illnesses: a model of long-term philanthropic effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brousseau, Ruth Tebbets

    2009-01-01

    Foundations are often criticized for their short attention spans and inability to continue funding the toughest social problems. Homelessness among people with mental illnesses is considered among the most intractable of social issues. This paper explores the role of permanent supportive housing in reducing homelessness among the mentally ill; the role of the Corporation for Supportive Housing in developing, authenticating, and disseminating its model; and its long-term funding relationship with the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation, which has facilitated this trajectory. The paper tells the story of how long-term funding, strategically used, is making inroads into this serious mental health problem.

  7. Joint association of multimorbidity and work ability with risk of long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Due Jakobsen, Markus; Mortensen, Ole Steen

    2017-01-01

    with LTSA appears to be additive. Conclusions: Poor work ability combined with ≥1 chronic diseases is associated with high risk of long-term sickness absence in the general working population. Initiatives to improve or maintain work ability should be highly prioritized to secure sustainable employability......, disability pension, immigration, or death) was performed to estimate the joint association of chronic diseases and work ability in relation to physical and mental demands of the job with the prospective risk for LTSA (defined as ≥6 consecutive weeks during 2-year follow-up) among 10 427 wage earners from...... the general working population (2010 Danish Work Environment Cohort Study). Control variables were age, gender, psychosocial work environment, smoking, leisure physical activity, body mass index, job group, and previous LTSA. Results: Of the 10 427 respondents, 56.8% had experienced ≥1 chronic disease...

  8. Lower Risk of Stroke after Deformity Surgery: Long Term Benefit Demonstrated by a National Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang-Chung Huang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the long-term risk of stroke in adult patients with spinal deformity. Specifically, the study addressed the possible protective effect of surgery for spinal deformity against stroke. Methods: Using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD, a monopolistic national database in Taiwan, this retrospective cohort study analyzed the incidence of stroke in patients with adult spinal deformity (ASD in a 11-year period. A total of 13,503 patients, between 55 and 75 years old, were identified for the diagnosis of ASD. The patients were grouped into two: the surgical group (n = 10,439 who received spinal fusion surgery, and the control group (n = 2124 who received other medical treatment. The incidence rates of all subsequent cerebrovascular accidents, including ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, were calculated. Hazard ratios for stroke were calculated use a full cohort and a propensity score matched cohort. Adjustments for co-morbidities that may predispose to stroke, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, arrhythmia and coronary heart disease were conducted. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the risk of stroke between the two groups. Results: During the total observation period of 50,450 person-years, the incidence rate of stroke in the surgical group (15.55 per 1000 person-years was significantly lower than that of the control group (20.89 per 1000 person-years, p < 0.001. Stroke was more likely to occur in the control group than in the surgical group (crude hazard ratio 1.34, p < 0.001; adjusted HR 1.28, p < 0.001, by a propensity score matched model. Conclusions: In this national cohort of more than 13,000 ASD patients covering 10 years, stroke was approximately 25% less likely to happen in patients who underwent spinal fusion surgery than those who received medical management. Therefore, spinal fusion surgery may provide a protective effect against stroke

  9. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  10. Early childhood family intervention and long-term obesity prevention among high-risk minority youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotman, Laurie Miller; Dawson-McClure, Spring; Huang, Keng-Yen; Theise, Rachelle; Kamboukos, Dimitra; Wang, Jing; Petkova, Eva; Ogedegbe, Gbenga

    2012-03-01

    To test the hypothesis that family intervention to promote effective parenting in early childhood affects obesity in preadolescence. Participants were 186 minority youth at risk for behavior problems who enrolled in long-term follow-up studies after random assignment to family intervention or control condition at age 4. Follow-up Study 1 included 40 girls at familial risk for behavior problems; Follow-up Study 2 included 146 boys and girls at risk for behavior problems based on teacher ratings. Family intervention aimed to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems during early childhood; it did not focus on physical health. BMI and health behaviors were measured an average of 5 years after intervention in Study 1 and 3 years after intervention in Study 2. Youth randomized to intervention had significantly lower BMI at follow-up relative to controls (Study 1 P = .05; Study 2 P = .006). Clinical impact is evidenced by lower rates of obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile) among intervention girls and boys relative to controls (Study 2: 24% vs 54%, P = .002). There were significant intervention-control group differences on physical and sedentary activity, blood pressure, and diet. Two long-term follow-up studies of randomized trials show that relative to controls, youth at risk for behavior problems who received family intervention at age 4 had lower BMI and improved health behaviors as they approached adolescence. Efforts to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems early in life may contribute to the reduction of obesity and health disparities.

  11. User Acceptance of Long-Term Evolution (LTE) Services: An Application of Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eunil; Kim, Ki Joon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated path model in order to explore user acceptance of long-term evolution (LTE) services by examining potential causal relationships between key psychological factors and user intention to use the services. Design/methodology/approach: Online survey data collected from 1,344 users are analysed…

  12. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1990-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

  13. Long-term perspectives on world metal use - a model-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren DP; Strengers BJ; Vries HJM de; MNV

    1999-01-01

    In this report, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This

  14. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  16. On policies to regulate long-term risks from hazardous waste disposal sites under both intergenerational equity and intragenerational equity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Zhongbin

    In recent years, it has been recognized that there is a need for a general philosophic policy to guide the regulation of societal activities that involve long-term and very long-term risks. Theses societal activities not only include the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes and global warming, but also include the disposal of non-radioactive carcinogens that never decay, such as arsenic, nickel, etc. In the past, attention has been focused on nuclear wastes. However, there has been international recognition that large quantities of non-radioactive wastes are being disposed of with little consideration of their long-term risks. The objectives of this dissertation are to present the significant long-term risks posed by non-radioactive carcinogens through case studies; develop the conceptual decision framework for setting the long-term risk policy; and illustrate that certain factors, such as discount rate, can significantly influence the results of long-term risk analysis. Therefore, the proposed decision-making framework can be used to systematically study the important policy questions on long-term risk regulations, and then subsequently help the decision-maker to make informed decisions. Regulatory disparities between high-level radioactive wastes and non-radioactive wastes are summarized. Long-term risk is rarely a consideration in the regulation of disposal of non-radioactive hazardous chemicals; and when it is, the matter has been handled in a somewhat perfunctory manner. Case studies of long-term risks are conducted for five Superfund sites that are contaminated with one or more non-radioactive carcinogens. Under the same assumptions used for the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, future subsistence farmers would be exposed to significant individual risks, in some cases with lifetime fatality risk equal to unity. The important policy questions on long-term risk regulation are identified, and the conceptual decision-making framework to regulate

  17. Long-term effects of ionizing radiation on gene expression in a zebrafish model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lahcen Jaafar

    Full Text Available Understanding how initial radiation injury translates into long-term effects is an important problem in radiation biology. Here, we define a set of changes in the transcription profile that are associated with the long-term response to radiation exposure. The study was performed in vivo using zebrafish, an established radiobiological model organism. To study the long-term response, 24 hour post-fertilization embryos were exposed to 0.1 Gy (low dose or 1.0 Gy (moderate dose of whole-body gamma radiation and allowed to develop for 16 weeks. Liver mRNA profiles were then analyzed using the Affymetrix microarray platform, with validation by quantitative PCR. As a basis for comparison, 16-week old adults were exposed at the same doses and analyzed after 4 hours. Statistical analysis was performed in a way to minimize the effects of multiple comparisons. The responses to these two treatment regimes differed greatly: 360 probe sets were associated primarily with the long-term response, whereas a different 2062 probe sets were associated primarily with the response when adults of the same age were irradiated 4 hours before exposure. Surprisingly, a ten-fold difference in radiation dose (0.1 versus 1.0 Gy had little effect. Analysis at the gene and pathway level indicated that the long-term response includes the induction of cytokine and inflammatory regulators and transcription and growth factors. The acute response includes the induction of p53 target genes and modulation of the hypoxia-induced transcription factor-C/EBP axis. Results help define genes and pathways affected in the long-term, low and moderate dose radiation response and differentiate them from those affected in an acute response in the same tissue.

  18. Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

  19. Physical work environment risk factors for long term sickness absence: prospective findings among a cohort of 5357 employees in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Thomas; Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl Bang

    2006-01-01

    employees interviewed in 2000 about their physical work environment, and various covariates were followed for 18 months in a national sickness absence register. Outcome measurements Cox regression analysis was performed to assess risk estimates for physical risk factors in the work environment and onset......OBJECTIVES: To examine the effects of physical work environment on long term sickness absence and to investigate interaction between physical and psychosocial risk factors. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study of long term sickness absence among employees in Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 5357...... of long term sickness absence, defined as receiving sickness absence compensation for eight consecutive weeks or more. RESULTS: 348 participants (6.9%) developed long term sickness absence during follow-up. Of these, 194 (55.7%) were women and 154 (44.3%) were men. For both female and male employees, risk...

  20. Risk of unsafe abortion associated with long-term contraception behaviour: a case control study from Sri Lanka

    OpenAIRE

    Arambepola, Carukshi; Rajapaksa, Lalini C

    2017-01-01

    Background When faced with an unintended pregnancy, some women choose to undergo an unsafe abortion, while others do not. This choice may depend on long-term contraception that shapes the fertility goals of women, along with many other risk factors. We assessed the risk for unsafe abortion associated with contraceptive practices based on women?s long-term behaviour, and its likely modification by the use of different types of contraceptives among women in Sri Lanka. Methods An unmatched case-...

  1. Long-term sedentary work and the risk of subsite-specific colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Terry; Fritschi, Lin; Heyworth, Jane; Bull, Fiona

    2011-05-15

    Research suggests that sedentary behavior may increase the risk of some chronic diseases. The aims of the study were to examine whether sedentary work is associated with colorectal cancer and to determine whether the association differs by subsite. A total of 918 cases and 1,021 controls participated in a population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer in Western Australia in 2005-2007. Data were collected on lifestyle, physical activity, and lifetime job history. The estimated effects of sedentary work on the risk of cancers of the proximal colon, distal colon, and rectum were analyzed by using multinomial logistic regression. Compared with participants who did not spend any time in sedentary work, participants who spent 10 or more years in sedentary work had almost twice the risk of distal colon cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.94, 95% confidence interval: 1.28, 2.93) and a 44% increased risk of rectal cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 2.18). This association was independent of recreational physical activity and was seen even among the most recreationally active participants. Sedentary work was not associated with the risk of proximal colon cancer. These results suggest that long-term sedentary work may increase the risk of distal colon cancer and rectal cancer.

  2. Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

    2015-06-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

  3. Nutrition-related risk indexes and long-term mortality in noncritically ill inpatients who receive total parenteral nutrition (prospective multicenter study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia, María José; Ocón, Julia; Cabrejas-Gómez, Carmen; Ballesteros-Pomar, María D; Vidal-Casariego, Alfonso; Arraiza-Irigoyen, Carmen; Olivares, Josefina; Conde-García, Ma Carmen; García-Manzanares, Álvaro; Botella-Romero, Francisco; Quílez-Toboso, Rosa P; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Rubio, Miguel A; Chicharro, Luisa; Burgos, Rosa; Pujante, Pedro; Ferrer, Mercedes; Zugasti, Ana; Petrina, Estrella; Manjón, Laura; Diéguez, Marta; Carrera, Ma José; Vila-Bundo, Anna; Urgelés, Juan Ramón; Aragón-Valera, Carmen; Sánchez-Vilar, Olga; Bretón, Irene; García-Peris, Pilar; Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Márquez, Efren; del Olmo, Dolores; Pereira, José Luis; Tous, María C; Olveira, Gabriel

    2015-10-01

    Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is associated with an increased risk of death, in both the short and the long term. The purpose of this study was to determine which nutrition-related risk index predicts long-term mortality better (three years) in patients who receive total parenteral nutrition (TPN). This prospective, multicenter study involved noncritically ill patients who were prescribed TPN during hospitalization. Data were collected on Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), body mass index, albumin and prealbumin, as well as long-term mortality. Over the 1- and 3-year follow-up periods, 174 and 244 study subjects (28.8% and 40.3%) respectively, died. Based on the Cox proportional hazards survival model, the nutrition-related risk indexes most strongly associated with mortality were SGA and albumin (Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  4. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  5. A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Mário; Cancho, Vicente G; Rodrigues, Josemar

    2010-02-01

    In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. In this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Protective effects of long-term lithium administration in a slowly progressive SMA mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagioni, Francesca; Ferrucci, Michela; Ryskalin, Larisa; Fulceri, Federica; Lazzeri, Gloria; Calierno, Maria Teresa; Busceti, Carla L; Ruffoli, Riccardo; Fornai, Francesco

    2017-12-01

    In the present study we evaluated the long-term effects of lithium administration to a knock-out double transgenic mouse model (Smn-/-; SMN1A2G+/-; SMN2+/+) of Spinal Muscle Atrophy type III (SMA-III). This model is characterized by very low levels of the survival motor neuron protein, slow disease progression and motor neuron loss, which enables to detect disease-modifying effects at delayed time intervals. Lithium administration attenuates the decrease in motor activity and provides full protection from motor neuron loss occurring in SMA-III mice, throughout the disease course. In addition, lithium prevents motor neuron enlargement and motor neuron heterotopy and suppresses the occurrence of radial-like glial fibrillary acidic protein immunostaining in the ventral white matter of SMA-III mice. In SMA-III mice long-term lithium administration determines a dramatic increase of survival motor neuron protein levels in the spinal cord. These data demonstrate that long-term lithium administration during a long-lasting motor neuron disorder attenuates behavioural deficit and neuropathology. Since low level of survival motor neuron protein is bound to disease severity in SMA, the robust increase in protein level produced by lithium provides solid evidence which calls for further investigations considering lithium in the long-term treatment of spinal muscle atrophy.

  7. Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

  8. Understanding the Risk Factors and Long-Term Consequences of Cisplatin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury: An Observational Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeenat Yousuf Bhat

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a well-known complication of cisplatin-based chemotherapy; however, its impact on long-term patient survival is unclear. We sought to determine the incidence and risk factors for development of cisplatin-associated AKI and its impact on long-term renal function and patient survival. We identified 233 patients who received 629 cycles of high-dose cisplatin (99±9mg/m2 for treatment of head and neck cancer between 2005 and 2011. These subjects were reviewed for development of AKI. Cisplatin nephrotoxicity (CN was defined as persistent rise in serum creatinine, with a concomitant decline in serum magnesium and potassium, in absence of use of nephrotoxic agents and not reversed with hydration. All patients were hydrated per protocol and none had baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR via CKD-EPI<60mL/min/1.73m2. The patients were grouped based on development of AKI and were staged for levels of injury, per KDIGO-AKI definition. Renal function was assessed via serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR via CKD-EPI at baseline, 6- and 12-months. Patients with AKI were screened for the absence of nephrotoxic medication use and a temporal decline in serum potassium and magnesium levels. Logistic regression models were constructed to determine risk factors for cisplatin-associated AKI. Twelve-month renal function was compared among groups using ANOVA. Kaplan-Maier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to study its impact on patient survival. Of 233 patients, 158(68% developed AKI; 77 (49% developed stage I, 55 (35% developed stage II, and 26 (16% developed stage III AKI. Their serum potassium and magnesium levels correlated negatively with level of injury (p<0.05. African American race was a significant risk factor for cisplatin-associated AKI, OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.3 to 6.3 and 2.8 (95% CI 1.2 to 6.7 patients with stage III AKI had the lowest eGFR value at 12 months (p = 0.05 and long-term

  9. Long-term risk of secondary skin cancers after radiation therapy for Hodgkin’s lymphoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniëls, Laurien A.; Krol, Augustinus D.G.; Schaapveld, Michael; Putter, Hein; Jansen, Patty M.; Marijt, Erik W.A.; Leeuwen, Flora E. van; Creutzberg, Carien L.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Survivors of Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL) are at risk of secondary tumors. We investigated the risk of secondary skin cancers after radiotherapy compared to treatment without radiation and to an age-matched population. Material and methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 889 HL patients treated between 1965 and 2005. Data on secondary skin cancers and treatment fields were retrieved. Incidence rates were compared to observed rates in the Dutch population. Results: 318 skin cancers were diagnosed in 86 patients, showing significantly higher risks of skin cancers, the majority being BCC. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of BCC in HL survivors was significantly increased (SIR 5.2, 95% CI 4.0–6.6), especially in those aged <35 years at diagnosis (SIR 8.0, 95% CI 5.8–10.7). SIR increased with longer follow-up to 15.9 (95% CI 9.1–25.9) after 35 years, with 626 excess cases per 10,000 patients per year. Most (57%) skin cancers developed within the radiation fields, with significantly increased risk in patients treated with radiotherapy compared to chemotherapy alone (p = 0·047, HR 2·75, 95% CI 1·01–7.45). Conclusion: Radiotherapy for HL is associated with a strongly increased long-term risk of secondary skin cancers, both compared to the general population and to treatment with chemotherapy alone

  10. Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas eVoss

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

  11. Long-term risk of seizures in adult survivors of sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reznik, Michael E; Merkler, Alexander E; Mahta, Ali; Murthy, Santosh B; Claassen, Jan; Kamel, Hooman

    2017-10-03

    To examine the association between sepsis and the long-term risk of seizures. We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using administrative claims data from all emergency department visits and hospitalizations at nonfederal acute care hospitals in California, Florida, and New York from 2005 to 2013. Using previously validated diagnosis codes, we identified all adult patients hospitalized with sepsis. Our outcome was any emergency department visit or hospitalization for seizure. Poisson regression and demographic data were used to calculate age-, sex-, and race-standardized incidence rate ratios (IRR). To confirm our findings, we used a matched cohort of hospitalized patients without sepsis for comparison and additionally assessed claims data from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. We identified 842,735 patients with sepsis. The annual incidence of seizure was 1.29% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27%-1.30%) in patients with sepsis vs 0.16% (95% CI 0.16%-0.16%) in the general population (IRR 4.98; 95% CI 4.92-5.04). A secondary analysis using matched hospitalized patients confirmed these findings (IRR 4.33; 95% CI 4.13-4.55), as did a separate analysis of Medicare beneficiaries, in whom we found a similar strength of association (IRR 2.72; 95% CI 2.60-2.83), as we did in patients ≥65 years of age in our primary statewide data (IRR 2.83; 95% CI 2.78-2.88). We found that survivors of sepsis faced a significantly higher long-term risk of seizures than both the general population and other hospitalized patients. Our findings suggest that sepsis is associated with pathways that lead to permanent neurologic sequelae. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  12. Private participation in infrastructure: A risk analysis of long-term contracts in power sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceran, Nisangul

    The objective of this dissertation is to assess whether the private participation in energy sector through long term contracting, such as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) type investments, is an efficient way of promoting efficiency in the economy. To this end; the theoretical literature on the issue is discussed, the experience of several developing countries are examined, and a BOT project, which is undertaken by the Enron company in Turkey, has been studied in depth as a case study. Different risk analysis techniques, including sensitivity and probabilistic risk analysis with the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method have been applied to assess the financial feasibility and risks of the case study project, and to shed light on the level of rent-seeking in the BOT agreements. Although data on rent seeking and corruption is difficult to obtain, the analysis of case study investment using the sensitivity and MCS method provided some information that can be used in assessing the level of rent-seeking in BOT projects. The risk analysis enabled to test the sustainability of the long-term BOT contracts through the analysis of projects financial feasibility with and without the government guarantees in the project. The approach of testing the sustainability of the project under different scenarios is helpful to understand the potential costs and contingent liabilities for the government and project's impact on a country's overall economy. The results of the risk analysis made by the MCS method for the BOT project used as the case study strongly suggest that, the BOT projects does not serve to the interest of the society and transfers substantial amount of public money to the private companies, implying severe governance problems. It is found that not only government but also private sector may be reluctant about full privatization of infrastructure due to several factors such as involvement of large sunk costs, very long time period for returns to be received, political and

  13. Mediators of a long-term movement abnormality in a Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily L. Ryan

    2012-11-01

    Despite neonatal diagnosis and life-long dietary restriction of galactose, many patients with classic galactosemia grow to experience significant long-term complications. Among the more common are speech, cognitive, behavioral, ovarian and neurological/movement difficulties. Despite decades of research, the pathophysiology of these long-term complications remains obscure, hindering prognosis and attempts at improved intervention. As a first step to overcome this roadblock we have begun to explore long-term outcomes in our previously reported GALT-null Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia. Here we describe the first of these studies. Using a countercurrent device, a simple climbing assay, and a startle response test to characterize and quantify an apparent movement abnormality, we explored the impact of cryptic GALT expression on phenotype, tested the role of sublethal galactose exposure and galactose-1-phosphate (gal-1P accumulation, tested the impact of age, and searched for potential anatomical defects in brain and muscle. We found that about 2.5% residual GALT activity was sufficient to reduce outcome severity. Surprisingly, sublethal galactose exposure and gal-1P accumulation during development showed no effect on the adult phenotype. Finally, despite the apparent neurological or neuromuscular nature of the complication we found no clear morphological differences between mutants and controls in brain or muscle, suggesting that the defect is subtle and/or is physiologic rather than structural. Combined, our results confirm that, like human patients, GALT-null Drosophila experience significant long-term complications that occur independently of galactose exposure, and serve as a proof of principle demonstrating utility of the GALT-null Drosophila model as a tool for exploring genetic and environmental modifiers of long-term outcome in GALT deficiency.

  14. Development of a Risk-Based Probabilistic Performance-Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems - 2nd Edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HO, CLIFFORD K.; ARNOLD, BILL W.; COCHRAN, JOHN R.; TAIRA, RANDAL Y.

    2002-01-01

    A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology has been developed to assist designers, regulators, and stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report describes the method, the software tools that were developed, and an example that illustrates the probabilistic performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon gas flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results from uncertainty analyses, sensitivity analyses, and alternative design comparisons are presented for each of the performance metrics. The benefits from this methodology include a quantification of uncertainty, the identification of parameters most important to performance (to prioritize site characterization and monitoring activities), and the ability to compare alternative designs using probabilistic evaluations of performance (for cost savings)

  15. Long-term risk of cervical cancer following conization of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3-A Danish nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sand, Freja Laerke; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

    2018-01-01

    Using nationwide Danish registries we examined the long-term risk of cervical cancer in women diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) (including adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS)) on the cone compared to women with a normal cytology test. Initially, we identified women born 1918......-1990, who were recorded as living in Denmark between January 1, 1978 and December 31, 2012. From the Pathology Data Bank information on CIN3 on the cone, margins status, histological type of CIN3 and cervical cytology results was extracted. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the relative...... risk of subsequent cervical cancer. We included 59,464 women with CIN3 on the cone and 1,918,508 women with a normal cytology test. Overall, women diagnosed with CIN3 had a higher risk of subsequent cervical cancer compared to women with normal cytology (HR = 2.06; 95%CI: 1.81-2.35). Analyses according...

  16. Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

    2013-02-01

    Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk of unsafe abortion associated with long-term contraception behaviour: a case control study from Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arambepola, Carukshi; Rajapaksa, Lalini C

    2017-06-29

    When faced with an unintended pregnancy, some women choose to undergo an unsafe abortion, while others do not. This choice may depend on long-term contraception that shapes the fertility goals of women, along with many other risk factors. We assessed the risk for unsafe abortion associated with contraceptive practices based on women's long-term behaviour, and its likely modification by the use of different types of contraceptives among women in Sri Lanka. An unmatched case-control study was conducted in nine hospitals among 171 women admitted for care following an unsafe abortion (Cases) and 600 women admitted to same hospitals for delivery of an unintended term pregnancy (Controls). Interviewer-administered-questionnaires assessed their socio-economic, reproductive and fertility (decisions on family size, family completion) characteristics, contraceptive method last used (traditional, modern), reasons for discontinuation/never-use, and contraceptive practices assessed at different time points. Using several regression models, the risk of abortion was assessed for 'non-use' of contraception against 'ineffective use' at conception; for non-use further categorised as 'never-use', 'early-discontinuation' (discontinued before last birth interval) and 'late-discontinuation' (discontinued during last birth interval); and for any interaction between the contraceptive practice and contraceptive method last used among the ever-users of contraception. At conception, 'non-use' of contraception imparted a two-fold risk for abortion against ineffective use (adjusted-OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2-3.2). The abortion risk on 'non-use' varied further according to 'early' (adjusted-OR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-3.1) and 'late' (adjusted-OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.5-3.6) discontinuation of contraception, but not with 'never-use' (crude-OR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.6-2.3). Among the ever-users, the risk of abortion varied within each contraceptive practice by their last used contraceptive method and

  18. Short- and long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in a rat chronic unpredictable stress model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yinghong; Wang, Yiqiang; Sun, Xiaoran; Lian, Bo; Sun, Hongwei; Wang, Gang; Du, Zhongde; Li, Qi; Sun, Lin

    2017-08-01

    This research was aimed to evaluate the behaviors of short- or long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (CUS). Ketamine, a glutamate noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist, regulates excitatory amino acid functions, such as anxiety disorders and major depression, and plays an important role in synaptic plasticity and learning and memory. After 42 days of CUS model, male rats received either a single injection of ketamine (10 mg/kg; day 43) or 15 daily injections (days 43-75). The influence of ketamine on behavioral reactivity was assessed 24 hr (short-term) or 7 weeks after ketamine treatment (long-term). Behavioral tests used to assess the effects of these treatments included the sucrose preference (SP), open field (OF), elevated plus maze (EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM) to detect anxiety-like behavior (OF and EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM). Results: Short-term ketamine administration resulted in increases of body weight gain, higher sensitivity to sucrose, augmented locomotor activity in the OF, more entries into the open arms of the EPM, along increased activity in the FS test; all responses indicative of reductions in depression/despair in anxiety-eliciting situations. No significant differences in these behaviors were obtained under conditions of long-term ketamine administration ( p  > .05). The CUS + Ketamine group showed significantly increased activity as compared with the CUS + Vehicle group for analysis of the long-term effects of ketamine (* p   .05). Taken together these findings demonstrate that a short-term administration of ketamine induced rapid antidepressant-like effects in adult male rats exposed to CUS conditions, effects that were not observed in response to the long-term treatment regime.

  19. Implementation of the long term stewardship model of decommissioning power reactors. Update on the Zion project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christian, J.; Hess, J.; Moloney, B.P. [EnergySolutions EU, Swindon (United Kingdom)

    2012-11-01

    Several countries have announced programmes to phase out nuclear power. Many NPPs built in the 1960s-80s are in any case reaching the end of their planned operating lives. Over the next decade, approximately 60-80 reactors worldwide will reach end of useful life and become candidates for decontamination and dismantling (D and D). Utilities will therefore commission over the coming decade a much larger number of decommissioning programmes to discharge their license responsibilities for reactor dismantling and site remediation. One major strategic question for the utilities is whether they regard decommissioning reactors as part of their core business or whether they wish to transfer this burden and risk in part or in whole to a specialised contractor. This paper reviews progress at the first programme in the US where a non-utility company has taken on the full license responsibility from the utility to undertake site remediation and license termination. We call this model ''Long Term Stewardship'' and it is now fully underway at the Zion NPP near Chicago, Illinois. (orig.)

  20. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... supply and sustained sub- zero temperatures are essential to develop fractures in porous rocks (e.g. Murton, 2006), but the cracking efficiency for harder rock types under natural conditions is less clear. However, based on experimental results for porous rocks, Hales and Roering (2007) proposed a model...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...

  1. Long-term risk of carotid restenosis in patients randomly assigned to endovascular treatment or endarterectomy in the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS): long-term follow-up of a randomised trial.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Bonati, Leo H

    2009-10-01

    In the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS), early recurrent carotid stenosis was more common in patients assigned to endovascular treatment than it was in patients assigned to endarterectomy (CEA), raising concerns about the long-term effectiveness of endovascular treatment. We aimed to investigate the long-term risks of restenosis in patients included in CAVATAS.

  2. A protocol improves GP recording of long-term sickness absence risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Paul; Hogervorst, Wouter; ter Riet, Gerben; van Dijk, Frank

    2008-06-01

    If general practitioners (GPs) were better informed about patients' risks of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), they could incorporate these risk assessments into their patient management plans and cooperate more with occupational physicians to prevent LTSA. To evaluate the effectiveness of a protocol helping GPs in recording risks of LTSA and in co-operating with occupational physicians (OPs). Twenty-six GPs (co-operating in four groups) in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, participated in a controlled intervention study. Fourteen GPs were the protocol-supported intervention group and twelve GPs were the reference group. Outcome measures were consultations containing work-related information, information about two risk factors for LTSA, referrals to OPs and contacts of OPs with GPs and patients. Outcomes were identified through an electronic search in the GPs' information systems. Entries containing information were independently scored by two investigators. The proportions of patients with consultations documenting LTSA-pertinent items were compared between the groups, accounting for differences at baseline. There was no increase in consultations containing work-related information. Recording of risk factor information increased in the intervention group; the difference was 4.5% [95% CI 1.5-7.6] and 1.8% (95% CI -0.8 to 4.4) for the two risk factors. The referral rate to the OP increased by 2.9% (95% CI 1.2-4.5). There was no effect on contacts of OPs with GPs or with patients. Protocol-supported consultations may lead to a modest increase in information regarding two risk factors for LTSA in GPs' electronic records and to more referrals to OPs.

  3. Time-Dependent Global Sensitivity Analysis for Long-Term Degeneracy Model Using Polynomial Chaos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbin Guo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Global sensitivity is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the output variability of static models in general. However, very few approaches can be applied for the sensitivity analysis of long-term degeneracy models, as far as time-dependent reliability is concerned. The reason is that the static sensitivity may not reflect the completed sensitivity during the entire life circle. This paper presents time-dependent global sensitivity analysis for long-term degeneracy models based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE. Sobol’ indices are employed as the time-dependent global sensitivity since they provide accurate information on the selected uncertain inputs. In order to compute Sobol’ indices more efficiently, this paper proposes a moving least squares (MLS method to obtain the time-dependent PCE coefficients with acceptable simulation effort. Then Sobol’ indices can be calculated analytically as a postprocessing of the time-dependent PCE coefficients with almost no additional cost. A test case is used to show how to conduct the proposed method, then this approach is applied to an engineering case, and the time-dependent global sensitivity is obtained for the long-term degeneracy mechanism model.

  4. A long-term risk-benefit analysis of low-dose aspirin in primary prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, I-Chen; Hsieh, Hui-Min; Yu, Fang-Jung; Wu, Meng-Chieh; Wu, Tzung-Shiun; Wu, Ming-Tsang

    2016-02-01

    The long-term risk-benefit effect of occasional and regular use of low-dose aspirin (≤ 100 mg per day) in primary prevention of vascular diseases and cancers was calculated. One representative database of 1 000 000 participants from Taiwan's National Health Insurance scheme in 1997-2000 was used. The potential study subjects were those aged 30-95 years, were found not to have been prescribed aspirin before 1 January 2000, but to have first been prescribed low-dose aspirin (≤ 100 mg per day) after that date and were followed up to 31 December 2009. Participants prescribed low-dose aspirin risk. A total of 1720 pairs were analysed. During the study period, haemorrhage and ischaemia occurred in 25 (1·45%) and 67 participants (3·90%) in occasional users and 69 (4·01%) and 100 participants (5·81%) in regular users, whereas cancer occurred in 32 participants (1·86%) in occasional users and 26 participants (1·51%) in regular users. The crude and adjusted net clinical risks of low-dose aspirin use between the two frequency of users (≥ 80% vs. prevention against major vascular diseases and cancer. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

  5. Observer-rated depression in long-term care: frequency and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe the prevalence and 6-month incidence of observer-rated depression in residents age 65 and over of long-term care (LTC) facilities; (2) to describe risk factors for depression, at baseline and over time. A multisite, prospective observational study was conducted in residents aged 65 and over of 7 LTC facilities. The Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) was completed by nurses monthly for 6 months. We measured demographic, medical, and functional factors at baseline and monthly intervals, using data from research assessments, nurse interviews, and chart reviews. 274 residents were recruited and completed baseline depression assessments. The prevalence of depression (CSDD score of 6+) was 19.0%. The incidence of depression among those without prevalent depression was 73.3 per 100 person-years. A delirium diagnosis, pain, and diabetes were independently associated with prevalent depression. CSDD score at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were independent risk factors for incident depression. A diagnosis of delirium and uncorrected visual impairment at follow-up occurred concurrently with incident depression. The results of this study have implications for the detection and prevention of depression in LTC. Delirium diagnosis, pain and diabetes at baseline were associated with prevalent depression; depression symptoms at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were risk factors for incident depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Renal Transplant Recipients: Risk Factors and Long-Term Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawab, Khaled Abdel; Gheith, Osama; Al Otaibi, Torki; Nampoory, Naryanam; Mansour, Hany; Halim, Medhat A; Nair, Prasad; Said, Tarek; Abdelmonem, Mohamed; El-Sayed, Ayman; Awadain, Waleed

    2017-04-01

    Urinary tract infection is the most common type of bacterial infection in kidney transplant procedures, with adverse effects on graft and patient survival. We aimed to evaluate the risk factors of recurrent urinary tract infection in renal transplant recipients and its impact on patient and graft survival. In a cohort of 1019 patients who were transplanted between 2000 and 2010 at Hamed Al-Essa Organ Transplant Center in Kuwait, 86% developed at least 1 episode of urinary tract infection, with only 6.2% of patients having recurrent infections. We compared patients with recurrent urinary tract infections (group 1) with those who had no recurrence (group 2) regarding their risk factors. Patients in group 1 were significantly younger than those in group 2 (34.9 ± 23 vs 42.8 ± 16 y; P urinary tract infections (P infections were significantly more prevalent among group 1 (10.8% vs 3.8%; P = .008). Long-term graft outcome (functioning and failed) were 78.5% and 21.5% in group 1 versus 85.1% and 13.9% in group 2 (P = .18). Patient outcomes (living and deceased donors) were 98.4% and 1.6% in group 1 versus 95.7% and 4.3% in group 2 (P = .187). Adult females, thymoglobulin induction, pretransplant urologic problems, and hepatitis C infection were the risk factors of recurrent urinary tract infection among our renal transplant patients. However, recurrence did not adversely affect graft or patient survival.

  7. Parameter values for the long-term nuclear waste management food chain model LIMCAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-09-01

    Eighteen parameters of LIMCAL, a comprehensive food chain model for predicting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents to man due to long-term nuclear waste management are reviewed. The parameters are: soil bulk density, plowlayer depth, soil surface layer depth, resusupension factor, atmospheric dust load, deposition velocity, plant interception fraction, plant environmental half-time, translocation factor, time of above-ground exposure, plant yield, holdup time, animals' feed consumption rate, animals' water consumption rate, man's water consumption rate, food type calorie conversion factors, man's total caloric intake rate and food type calorie fractions. LIMCAL has both traditional and unique parameters. The former occur in most of the currently used assessment models for nuclear installations, whereas the latter do not. For each of the parameters of LIMCAL, a suitable generic value for long-term nuclear waste management was determined. Thus, the general literature and the values currently used or recommended by various agencies were reviewed

  8. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  9. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  10. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  11. Negotiated risk and resident autonomy: Frontline care staff perspectives on culture change in long term care in Nova Scotia, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Emily

    2016-08-12

    Regulating risk, freedom of action, and autonomy in decision making are problems shared by both caregivers and residents in long term care settings, and may become the subject of tension and constant negotiation. This study focuses on long term care staff and management perceptions of day to day life in a care community which has gone through a culture change transition, where small residentially scaled households replace large instutional models of care. In each household, the setting is considered to be home for the 8-12 residents, creating a major shift of roles for the caregivers; they are, in essence, coming into a home rather than institutional environment as a place of work. This potentially changes the dynamics of both patterns of work for caregivers and patterns of daily living for residents. Participant observations and care staff interviews. Several key themes emrged which include: teamwork; the culture of care; regulating risk; the physical environment and care staff empowerment. An unexpected outcome was the consensus among care staff that it is they who feel at home while working in the care households, leading to empowerment in their work roles and a deeper understanding of the importance of their role in the lives of the residents.

  12. Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training

    OpenAIRE

    Frey Law, L.A.; Shields, R.K.

    2007-01-01

    Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of th...

  13. Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

  14. Long-term fashion forecast based on the sociological model of cyclic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А V Lebsak-Kleimans

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of social changes coined by classical sociology may be incorporated as the basis for the elaboration of social prognostication models which, in turn, may suitable for fashion forecast applied technologies development. In the framework of the given paper fashion is described as the phenomenon of collective behaviour. The principles of long-term fashion trends forecast are shown to be in line with the concepts of cyclic development.

  15. Long-term modeling on HPV vaccination: do we really need any more?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garattini, Livio; Curto, Alessandro; van de Vooren, Katelijne

    2015-04-01

    The human papillomavirus (HPV) is closely related to cervical cancer. In 2007, the EMA approved two vaccines, a bivalent and a quadrivalent one, launched at three-dose schedules and very high prices worldwide. We describe what happened in the EU and what might change in the near future from an economic perspective. HPV vaccination is now established in most EU countries. The main target group of the programs is girls aged 10-14 years. Many western countries used competitive tendering to purchase the two vaccines, achieving considerable savings. The extension to males has been a hotly debated issue. The sex limitation implies that this vaccination cannot by definition achieve a 'herd immunity' effect. EMA recently approved a two-dose schedule for both vaccines that should lead to savings, although it is hard to predict how the forthcoming nonavalent vaccine will affect the market situation. Several economic evaluations based on long-term models have been published on the HPV vaccination in the recent years, using official list prices as a baseline. Most of these models can be considered mere exercises in long-term forecasting. Recently, further long-term models have been published with two- and three-dose schedules as alternatives, and the nonavalent vaccine. We wonder what added value they give for public policy purposes.

  16. Late renal toxicity of treatment for childhood malignancy: risk factors, long-term outcomes, and surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Roderick

    2018-02-01

    Chronic glomerular and tubular nephrotoxicity is reported in 20-50% and 20-25%, respectively, of children and adolescents treated with ifosfamide and 60-80% and 10-30%, respectively, of those given cisplatin. Up to 20% of children display evidence of chronic glomerular damage after unilateral nephrectomy for a renal tumour. Overall, childhood cancer survivors have a ninefold higher risk of developing renal failure compared with their siblings. Such chronic nephrotoxicity may have multiple causes, including chemotherapy, radiotherapy exposure to kidneys, renal surgery, supportive care drugs and tumour-related factors. These cause a wide range of chronic glomerular and tubular toxicities, often with potentially severe clinical sequelae. Many risk factors for developing nephrotoxicity, mostly patient and treatment related, have been described, but we remain unable to predict all episodes of renal damage. This implies that other factors may be involved, such as genetic polymorphisms influencing drug metabolism. Although our knowledge of the long-term outcomes of chronic nephrotoxicity is increasing, there is still much to learn, including how we can optimally predict or achieve early detection of nephrotoxicity. Greater understanding of the pathogenesis of nephrotoxicity is needed before its occurrence can be prevented.

  17. Long-term reorganization of structural brain networks in a rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batalle, Dafnis; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Illa, Miriam; Figueras, Francesc; Eixarch, Elisenda; Gratacos, Eduard

    2014-10-15

    Characterization of brain changes produced by intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is among the main challenges of modern fetal medicine and pediatrics. This condition affects 5-10% of all pregnancies and is associated with a wide range of neurodevelopmental disorders. Better understanding of the brain reorganization produced by IUGR opens a window of opportunity to find potential imaging biomarkers in order to identify the infants with a high risk of having neurodevelopmental problems and apply therapies to improve their outcomes. Structural brain networks obtained from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a promising tool to study brain reorganization and to be used as a biomarker of neurodevelopmental alterations. In the present study this technique is applied to a rabbit animal model of IUGR, which presents some advantages including a controlled environment and the possibility to obtain high quality MRI with long acquisition times. Using a Q-Ball diffusion model, and a previously published rabbit brain MRI atlas, structural brain networks of 15 IUGR and 14 control rabbits at 70 days of age (equivalent to pre-adolescence human age) were obtained. The analysis of graph theory features showed a decreased network infrastructure (degree and binary global efficiency) associated with IUGR condition and a set of generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA) weighted measures associated with abnormal neurobehavior. Interestingly, when assessing the brain network organization independently of network infrastructure by means of normalized networks, IUGR showed increased global and local efficiencies. We hypothesize that this effect could reflect a compensatory response to reduced infrastructure in IUGR. These results present new evidence on the long-term persistence of the brain reorganization produced by IUGR that could underlie behavioral and developmental alterations previously described. The described changes in network organization have the potential to be used

  18. Effect of Baseline Nutritional Status on Long-term Multivitamin Use and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautiainen, Susanne; Gaziano, J. Michael; Christen, William G.; Bubes, Vadim; Kotler, Gregory; Glynn, Robert J.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Buring, Julie E.

    2017-01-01

    Importance Long-term multivitamin use had no effect on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Physicians’ Health Study II. Baseline nutritional status may have modified the lack of effect. Objective To investigate effect modification by various baseline dietary factors on CVD risk in the Physicians’ Health Study II. Design, Setting, and Participants The Physicians’ Health Study II was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial testing multivitamin use (multivitamin [Centrum Silver] or placebo daily) among US male physicians. The Physicians’ Health Study II included 14 641 male physicians 50 years or older, 13 316 of whom (91.0%) completed a baseline 116-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and were included in the analyses. This study examined effect modification by baseline intake of key foods, individual nutrients, dietary patterns (Alternate Healthy Eating Index and Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score), and dietary supplement use. The study began in 1997, with continued treatment and follow-up through June 1, 2011. Interventions Multivitamin or placebo daily. Main Outcomes and Measures Major cardiovascular events, including nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and CVD mortality. Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction, total stroke, CVD mortality, and total mortality individually. Results In total, 13 316 male physicians (mean [SD] age at randomization, 64.0 [9.0] years in those receiving the active multivitamin and 64.0 [9.1] years in those receiving the placebo) were observed for a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.4 (2.3) years. There was no consistent evidence of effect modification by various foods, nutrients, dietary patterns, or baseline supplement use on the effect of multivitamin use on CVD end points. Statistically significant interaction effects were observed between multivitamin use and vitamin B6 intake on myocardial infarction, between multivitamin use and vitamin D intake on CVD mortality

  19. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  20. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  1. On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2009-01-01

    martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

  2. Outcomes and long-term survival of coronary artery surgery: The controversial role of opium as risk marker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Mahdi; Jahangiry, Leila; Mortazavi, Seyedeh Hamideh; Jalali, Arash; Karimi, Abbasali; Bozorgi, Ali

    2016-01-01

    AIM To study survival in isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients and to evaluate the impact of preoperative chronic opium consumption on long-term outcome. METHODS Cohort of 566 isolated CABG patients as Tehran Heart Center cardiac output measurement was conducted. Daily evaluation until discharge as well as 4- and 12-mo and 6.5-year follow-up information for survival status were fulfilled for all patients. Long-term 6.5-year overall and opium-stratified survival, adjusted survival curves based on opium consumption as well as possible predictors of all-cause mortality using multiple cox regression were determined by statistical analysis. RESULTS Six point five-year overall survival was 91.8%; 86.6% in opium consumers and 92.7% in non-opium consumers (P = 0.035). Patients with positive history of opium consumption significantly tended to have lower ejection fraction (EF), higher creatinine level and higher prevalence of myocardial infarction. Multiple predictors of all-cause mortality included age, body mass index, EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. The hazard ratio (HR) of 2.09 for the risk of mortality in opium addicted patients with a borderline P value (P = 0.052) was calculated in this model. Further adjustment with stratification based on smoking and opium addiction reduced the HR to 1.20 (P = 0.355). CONCLUSION Simultaneous impact of smoking as a confounding variable in most of the patients prevents from definitive judgment on the role of opium as an independent contributing factor in worse long-term survival of CABG patients in addition to advanced age, low EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. Meanwhile, our findings do not confirm any cardio protective role for opium to improve outcome in coronary patients with the history of smoking. Further studies are needed to clarify pure effect of opium and warrant the aforementioned findings. PMID:27957254

  3. Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

    2014-07-11

    Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

  4. Expanding the Andersen model: the role of psychosocial factors in long-term care use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Elizabeth H; McGraw, Sarah A; Curry, Leslie; Buckser, Alison; King, Kinda L; Kasl, Stanislav V; Andersen, Ronald

    2002-10-01

    To examine a prevailing conceptual model of health services use (Andersen 1995) and to suggest modifications that may enhance its explanatory power when applied to empirical studies of race/ethnicity and long-term care. Twelve focus groups of African-American (five groups) and white (seven groups) individuals, aged 65 and older, residing in Connecticut during 2000. Using qualitative analysis, data were coded and analyzed in NUD-IST 4 software to facilitate the reporting of recurrent themes, supporting quotations, and links among the themes for developing the conceptual framework. Specific analysis was conducted to assess distinctions in common themes between African-American and white focus groups. Data were collected using a standardized discussion guide, augmented by prompts for clarification. Audio taped sessions were transcribed and independently coded by investigators and crosschecked to enhance coding validity. An audit trail was maintained to document analytic decisions during data analysis and interpretation. Psychosocial factors (e.g., attitudes and knowledge, social norms, and perceived control) are identified as determinants of service use, thereby expanding the Andersen model (1995). African-American and white focus group members differed in their reported accessibility of information about long-term care, social norms concerning caregiving expectations and burden, and concerns of privacy and self-determination. More comprehensive identification of psychosocial factors may enhance our understanding of the complex role of race/ethnicity in long-term care use as well as the effectiveness of policies and programs designed to address disparities in long-term care service use among minority and nonminority groups.

  5. Reassessing the long-term risk of suicide after a first episode of psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Rina; Murray, Robin M; Hotopf, Matthew; Allardyce, Judith; Jones, Peter B; Boydell, Jane

    2010-12-01

    The long-term risk of suicide after a first episode of psychosis is unknown because previous studies often have been based on prevalence cohorts, been biased to more severely ill hospitalized patients, extrapolated from a short follow-up time, and have made a distinction between schizophrenia and other psychoses. To determine the epidemiology of suicide in a clinically representative cohort of patients experiencing their first episode of psychosis. Retrospective inception cohort. Geographic catchment areas in London, England (between January 1, 1965, and December 31, 2004; n = 2056); Nottingham, England (between September 1, 1997, and August 31, 1999; n = 203); and Dumfries and Galloway, Scotland (between January 1, 1979, and December 31, 1998; n = 464). All 2723 patients who presented for the first time to secondary care services with psychosis in the 3 defined catchment areas were traced after a mean follow-up period of 11.5 years. Deaths by suicide and open verdicts according to the International Classification of Diseases (seventh through tenth editions). The case fatality from suicide was considerably lower than expected from previous studies (1.9% [53/2723]); the proportionate mortality was 11.9% (53/444). Although the rate of suicide was highest in the first year after presentation, risk persisted late into follow-up, with a median time to suicide of 5.6 years. Suicide occurred approximately 12 times more than expected from the general population of England and Wales (standardized mortality ratio, 11.65; 95% confidence interval, 8.73-15.24), and 49 of the 53 suicides were excess deaths. Even a decade after first presentation-a time when there may be less intense clinical monitoring of risk-suicide risk remained almost 4 times higher than in the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 3.92; 95% confidence interval, 2.22-6.89). The highest risk of suicide after a psychotic episode occurs soon after presentation, yet physicians should still be

  6. The risk of toxic retinopathy in patients on long-term hydroxychloroquine therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melles, Ronald B; Marmor, Michael F

    2014-12-01

    Hydroxychloroquine sulfate is widely used for the long-term treatment of autoimmune conditions but can cause irreversible toxic retinopathy. Prior estimations of risk were low but were based largely on short-term users or severe retinal toxicity (bull's eye maculopathy). The risk may be much higher because retinopathy can be detected earlier when using more sensitive screening techniques. To reassess the prevalence of and risk factors for hydroxychloroquine retinal toxicity and to determine dosage levels that facilitate safe use of the drug. Retrospective case-control study in an integrated health organization of approximately 3.4 million members among 2361 patients who had used hydroxychloroquine continuously for at least 5 years according to pharmacy records and who were evaluated with visual field testing or spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. Hydroxychloroquine use for at least 5 years. Retinal toxicity as determined by characteristic visual field loss or retinal thinning and photoreceptor damage, as well as statistical measures of risk factors and prevalence. Real body weight predicted risk better than ideal body weight and was used for all calculations. The overall prevalence of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy was 7.5% but varied with daily consumption (odds ratio, 5.67; 95% CI, 4.14-7.79 for >5.0 mg/kg) and with duration of use (odds ratio, 3.22; 95% CI, 2.20-4.70 for >10 years). For daily consumption of 4.0 to 5.0 mg/kg, the prevalence of retinal toxicity remained less than 2% within the first 10 years of use but rose to almost 20% after 20 years of use. Other major risk factors include kidney disease (odds ratio, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.44-3.01) and concurrent tamoxifen citrate therapy (odds ratio, 4.59; 95% CI, 2.05-10.27). These data suggest that hydroxychloroquine retinopathy is more common than previously recognized, especially at high dosages and long duration of use. While no completely safe dosage is identified from this study, daily consumption of

  7. Risks of long-term use of nitrofurantoin for urinary tract prophylaxis in the older patient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren L. Rego

    2016-12-01

    Conclusions: Pulmonary, nerve, or liver ARs resulting from long-term NF prophylaxis in older patients treated for UTIs are potentially serious but extremely rare, and should not deter from the cautious use of NF in this population.

  8. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  9. Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

    2015-08-01

    Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

  10. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  11. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

    2016-07-15

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  12. Long-term behavior of nuclear glass: the r(t) operational model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribet, I.; Gin, S.; Minet, Y.; Vernaz, E.; Chaix, P.; Do Quang, R.

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the long-term behavior of vitrified waste packages requires the development of models incorporating knowledge of the aqueous alteration mechanisms of nuclear glass. The r(t) model allows for the formation of a protective gel layer during leaching, and is thus able to account for the major drops in the glass alteration rate that are observed experimentally. This article describes the model hypotheses, the methodology implemented to determine its three internal parameters, and the results obtained from about fifty leaching experiments performed under various conditions. The orders of magnitude of the internal parameter values are indicated according to the alteration conditions. (author)

  13. Radiation Dose and Subsequent Risk for Stomach Cancer in Long-term Survivors of Cervical Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleinerman, Ruth A., E-mail: kleinerr@mail.nih.gov [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, US Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, Maryland (United States); Smith, Susan A. [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Holowaty, Eric [Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Hall, Per [Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Pukkala, Eero [Finnish Cancer Registry, Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, Helsinki (Finland); Vaalavirta, Leila [Department of Oncology, Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki (Finland); Stovall, Marilyn; Weathers, Rita [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Gilbert, Ethel [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, US Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, Maryland (United States); Aleman, Berthe M.P. [Department of Radiotherapy, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kaijser, Magnus [Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Michael [Department of Oncology, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen (Denmark); Storm, Hans [Cancer Prevention and Documentation, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen (Denmark); Joensuu, Heikki [Department of Oncology, Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki (Finland); Lynch, Charles F. [Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa (United States); and others

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To assess the dose–response relationship for stomach cancer after radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We conducted a nested, matched case–control study of 201 cases and 378 controls among 53,547 5-year survivors of cervical cancer diagnosed from 1943 to 1995, from 5 international, population-based cancer registries. We estimated individual radiation doses to the site of the stomach cancer for all cases and to corresponding sites for the matched controls (overall mean stomach tumor dose, 2.56 Gy, range 0.03-46.1 and after parallel opposed pelvic fields, 1.63 Gy, range 0.12-6.3). Results: More than 90% of women received radiation therapy, mostly with external beam therapy in combination with brachytherapy. Stomach cancer risk was nonsignificantly increased (odds ratio 1.27-2.28) for women receiving between 0.5 and 4.9 Gy to the stomach cancer site and significantly increased at doses ≥5 Gy (odds ratio 4.20, 95% confidence interval 1.41-13.4, P{sub trend}=.047) compared with nonirradiated women. A highly significant radiation dose–response relationship was evident when analyses were restricted to the 131 cases (251 controls) whose stomach cancer was located in the middle and lower portions of the stomach (P{sub trend}=.003), whereas there was no indication of increasing risk with increasing dose for 30 cases (57 controls) whose cancer was located in the upper stomach (P{sub trend}=.23). Conclusions: Our findings show for the first time a significant linear dose–response relationship for risk of stomach cancer in long-term survivors of cervical cancer.

  14. The long-term risk of recognized and unrecognized myocardial infarction for depression in older men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jovanova, O; Luik, A I; Leening, M J G; Noordam, R; Aarts, N; Hofman, A; Franco, O H; Dehghan, A; Tiemeier, H

    2016-07-01

    The association between myocardial infarction (MI) and depression is well described. Yet, the underlying mechanisms are unclear and the contribution of psychological factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine the risk of recognized (RMI) and unrecognized (UMI) myocardial infections on depression, as both have a similar impact on cardiovascular health but differ in psychological epiphenomena. Participants of the Rotterdam Study, 1823 men aged ⩾55 years, were followed for the occurrence of depression. RMI and UMI were ascertained using electrocardiography and medical history at baseline. We determined the strength of the association of RMI and UMI with mortality, and we studied the relationship of RMI and UMI with depressive symptoms and the occurrence of major depression. The risk of mortality was similar in men with RMI [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45-2.03] and UMI (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.27-1.97). Men with RMI had on average [unstandardized regression coefficient (B) 1.14, 95% CI 0.07-2.21] higher scores for depressive symptoms. By contrast, we found no clear association between UMI and depressive symptoms (B 0.55, 95% CI -0.51 to 1.62) in men. Analysis including occurrence of major depression as the outcome were consistent with the pattern of association. The discrepant association of RMI and UMI with mortality compared to depression suggests that the psychological burden of having experienced an MI contributes to the long-term risk of depression.

  15. Radiation Dose and Subsequent Risk for Stomach Cancer in Long-term Survivors of Cervical Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleinerman, Ruth A.; Smith, Susan A.; Holowaty, Eric; Hall, Per; Pukkala, Eero; Vaalavirta, Leila; Stovall, Marilyn; Weathers, Rita; Gilbert, Ethel; Aleman, Berthe M.P.; Kaijser, Magnus; Andersson, Michael; Storm, Hans; Joensuu, Heikki; Lynch, Charles F.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the dose–response relationship for stomach cancer after radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We conducted a nested, matched case–control study of 201 cases and 378 controls among 53,547 5-year survivors of cervical cancer diagnosed from 1943 to 1995, from 5 international, population-based cancer registries. We estimated individual radiation doses to the site of the stomach cancer for all cases and to corresponding sites for the matched controls (overall mean stomach tumor dose, 2.56 Gy, range 0.03-46.1 and after parallel opposed pelvic fields, 1.63 Gy, range 0.12-6.3). Results: More than 90% of women received radiation therapy, mostly with external beam therapy in combination with brachytherapy. Stomach cancer risk was nonsignificantly increased (odds ratio 1.27-2.28) for women receiving between 0.5 and 4.9 Gy to the stomach cancer site and significantly increased at doses ≥5 Gy (odds ratio 4.20, 95% confidence interval 1.41-13.4, P trend =.047) compared with nonirradiated women. A highly significant radiation dose–response relationship was evident when analyses were restricted to the 131 cases (251 controls) whose stomach cancer was located in the middle and lower portions of the stomach (P trend =.003), whereas there was no indication of increasing risk with increasing dose for 30 cases (57 controls) whose cancer was located in the upper stomach (P trend =.23). Conclusions: Our findings show for the first time a significant linear dose–response relationship for risk of stomach cancer in long-term survivors of cervical cancer

  16. Short- and Long-Term Feedbacks on Vegetation Water Use: Unifying Evidence from Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. S.

    2001-05-01

    Recent efforts to measure and model the interacting influences of climate, soil, and vegetation on soil water and nutrient dynamics have identified numerous important feedbacks that produce nonlinear responses. In particular, plant physiological factors that control rates of transpiration respond to soil water deficits and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in the short-term, and to climate, nutrient cycling and disturbance in the long-term. The starting point of this presentation is the observation that in many systems, in particular forest ecosystems, conservative water use emerges as a result of short-term closure of stomata in response to high evaporative demand, and long-term vegetative canopy development under nutrient limiting conditions. Evidence for important short-term controls is presented from sap flux measurements of stand transpiration, remote sensing, and modeling of transpiration through a combination of physically-based modeling and Monte Carlo analysis. A common result is a strong association between stomatal conductance (gs) and the negative evaporative gain (∂ gs/∂ VPD) associated with the sensitivity of stomatal closure to rates of water loss. The importance of this association from the standpoint of modeling transpiration depends on the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling. This suggests possible simplifications to future canopy component models for use in watershed and larger-scale hydrologic models for short-term processes. However, further results are presented from theoretical modeling, which suggest that feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation in current long-term (inter-annual to century) models may be too simple, as they do not capture the spatially variable nature of slow nutrient cycling in response to soil water dynamics and site history. Memory effects in the soil nutrient pools can leave lasting effects on more rapid processes associated with soil, vegetation, atmosphere coupling.

  17. Long-Term Risk for Noncervical Anogenital Cancer in Women with Previously Diagnosed High-Grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sand, Freja Lærke; Munk, Christian; Jensen, Signe Marie

    2016-01-01

    Background: High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is essential for developing high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2 and CIN3) and has also been associated with noncervical anogenital cancers. However, limited knowledge exists about the long-term risk for anal, vulvar, and vaginal...

  18. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Murru

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

  19. Quantifying Risk Factors for Long-Term Sleep Problems After Burn Injury in Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Austin F; Ryan, Colleen M; Schneider, Jeffrey C; Kazis, Lewis E; Li, Nien Chen; Rose, Mary; Liang, Matthew H; Wang, Chao; Palmieri, Tina; Meyer, Walter J; Pidcock, Frank S; Reilly, Debra; Sheridan, Robert L; Tompkins, Ronald G

    Restorative sleep is an important component of quality of life. Disturbances in sleep after burn injury were reported but all based on uncontrolled or nonstandardized data. The occurrence and the effect of long-term sleep problems in young adult burn survivors have not been well defined. This 5-year (2003-2008) prospective multicenter longitudinal study included adults with burn injuries ages 19 to 30 years who completed the Young Adult Burn Outcome Questionnaire (YABOQ) up to 36 months after injury. The items measured 15 patient-reported outcomes including physical, psychological, and social statuses and symptoms such as itch and pain. Scores of these 15 YABOQ outcome domains were standardized to a mean of 50 and a SD of 10 based on an age-matched nonburned reference group of young adults. Sleep quality was assessed using the item 'How satisfied are you now with your sleep,' rated by a 5-point Likert scale. Patients responding with very and somewhat dissatisfied were classified as having sleep dissatisfaction and the remaining as less or not dissatisfied. The associations between sleep dissatisfaction (yes/no) and YABOQ outcome domains were analyzed longitudinally using mixed-effect generalized linear models, adjusted for %TBSA burned, age, gender, and race. Generalized estimating equations were used to take into account correlated error resulting from repeated surveys on each patient over time. One hundred and fifty-two burn survivors participated in the YABOQ survey at baseline and during the follow-up who had at least one survey with a response to the sleep item. Among them, sleep dissatisfaction was twice as prevalent (76/152, 50%) when compared with the nonburned reference group (29/112, 26%). The likelihood of a burn survivor being dissatisfied with sleep was reduced over time after the burn injury. Sleep dissatisfaction following burns was significantly associated, in a dose-dependent manner, with increasing burn size (P = .001). Better sleep was associated

  20. Comparison of three nonlinear models to describe long-term tag shedding by lake trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Swanson, Bruce L.; Schram, Stephen T.; Hoff, Michael H.

    1996-01-01

    We estimated long-term tag-shedding rates for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush using two existing models and a model we developed to account for the observed permanence of some tags. Because tag design changed over the course of the study, we examined tag-shedding rates for three types of numbered anchor tags (Floy tags FD-67, FD-67C, and FD-68BC) and an unprinted anchor tag (FD-67F). Lake trout from the Gull Island Shoal region, Lake Superior, were double-tagged, and subsequent recaptures were monitored in annual surveys conducted from 1974 to 1992. We modeled tag-shedding rates, using time at liberty and probabilities of tag shedding estimated from fish released in 1974 and 1978–1983 and later recaptured. Long-term shedding of numbered anchor tags in lake trout was best described by a nonlinear model with two parameters: an instantaneous tag-shedding rate and a constant representing the proportion of tags that were never shed. Although our estimates of annual shedding rates varied with tag type (0.300 for FD-67, 0.441 for FD-67C, and 0.656 for FD-68BC), differences were not significant. About 36% of tags remained permanently affixed to the fish. Of the numbered tags that were shed (about 64%), two mechanisms contributed to tag loss: disintegration and dislodgment. Tags from about 11% of recaptured fish had disintegrated, but most tags were dislodged. Unprinted tags were shed at a significant but low rate immediately after release, but the long-term, annual shedding rate of these tags was only 0.013. Compared with unprinted tags, numbered tags dislodged at higher annual rates; we hypothesized that this was due to the greater frictional drag associated with the larger cross-sectional area of numbered tags.

  1. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  2. Spectral model for long-term computation of thermodynamics and potential evaporation in shallow wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Meruane, Carolina

    2017-09-01

    Altiplanic wetlands are unique ecosystems located in the elevated plateaus of Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia. These ecosystems are under threat due to changes in land use, groundwater extractions, and climate change that will modify the water balance through changes in precipitation and evaporation rates. Long-term prediction of the fate of aquatic ecosystems imposes computational constraints that make finding a solution impossible in some cases. In this article, we present a spectral model for long-term simulations of the thermodynamics of shallow wetlands in the limit case when the water depth tends to zero. This spectral model solves for water and sediment temperature, as well as heat, momentum, and mass exchanged with the atmosphere. The parameters of the model (water depth, thermal properties of the sediments, and surface albedo) and the atmospheric downscaling were calibrated using the MODIS product of the land surface temperature. Moreover, the performance of the daily evaporation rates predicted by the model was evaluated against daily pan evaporation data measured between 1964 and 2012. The spectral model was able to correctly represent both seasonal fluctuation and climatic trends observed in daily evaporation rates. It is concluded that the spectral model presented in this article is a suitable tool for assessing the global climate change effects on shallow wetlands whose thermodynamics is forced by heat exchanges with the atmosphere and modulated by the heat-reservoir role of the sediments.

  3. Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling; Etude de la stabilite thermique du verre nucleaire. Modelisation de son evolution a long terme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orlhac, X

    2000-07-01

    The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO{sub 4}, CeCO{sub 2}, ZnCr{sub 2}O{sub 4}). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO{sub 2}SiO{sub 2}) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

  4. Surrogates of Long-Term Vitamin D Exposure and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Two Prospective Cohort Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prescott, Jennifer; Bertrand, Kimberly A.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Tworoger, Shelley S.

    2013-01-01

    Experimental evidence and ecologic studies suggest a protective role of vitamin D in ovarian carcinogenesis. However, epidemiologic studies using individual level data have been inconsistent. We evaluated ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation, vitamin D intake, and predicted plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels as long-term surrogates of vitamin D exposure within the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. We estimated incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of overall ovarian cancer and by histologic subtype using Cox proportional hazards models. Between 1976 and 2010 in NHS and 1989 and 2011 in NHSII, we identified a total of 1,225 incident epithelial ovarian cancer cases (NHS: 970, NHSII: 255) over 4,628,648 person-years of follow-up. Cumulative average UV-B exposure was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in NHS (P trend = 0.08), but was associated with reduced risk in NHSII (highest vs. lowest category RR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.89; P trend < 0.01). When stratified by histologic subtype, UV-B flux was positively associated with risk of serous tumors in NHS (P trend < 0.01), but inversely associated in NHSII (P trend = 0.01). Adjusted for confounders, ovarian cancer risk was not associated with vitamin D intake from food or supplements or with predicted 25(OH)D levels. Our study does not strongly support a protective role for vitamin D in ovarian cancer risk

  5. Surrogates of Long-Term Vitamin D Exposure and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Two Prospective Cohort Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Prescott

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Experimental evidence and ecologic studies suggest a protective role of vitamin D in ovarian carcinogenesis. However, epidemiologic studies using individual level data have been inconsistent. We evaluated ultraviolet (UV-B radiation, vitamin D intake, and predicted plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OHD] levels as long-term surrogates of vitamin D exposure within the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS and NHSII. We estimated incidence rate ratios (RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs for risk of overall ovarian cancer and by histologic subtype using Cox proportional hazards models. Between 1976 and 2010 in NHS and 1989 and 2011 in NHSII, we identified a total of 1,225 incident epithelial ovarian cancer cases (NHS: 970, NHSII: 255 over 4,628,648 person-years of follow-up. Cumulative average UV-B exposure was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in NHS (Ptrend = 0.08, but was associated with reduced risk in NHSII (highest vs. lowest category RR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.89; Ptrend < 0.01. When stratified by histologic subtype, UV-B flux was positively associated with risk of serous tumors in NHS (Ptrend < 0.01, but inversely associated in NHSII (Ptrend = 0.01. Adjusted for confounders, ovarian cancer risk was not associated with vitamin D intake from food or supplements or with predicted 25(OHD levels. Our study does not strongly support a protective role for vitamin D in ovarian cancer risk.

  6. Actinide partitioning-transmutation program final report. VII. Long-term risk analysis of the geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, S.E.; Conarty, R.L.; Ng, H.S.; Rahal, L.J.; Shirley, C.G.

    1980-09-01

    This report supports the overall assessment by Oak Ridge National Laboratory of actinide partitioning and transmutation by providing an analysis of the long-term risks associated with the terminal storage of wastes from a fuel cycle which incorporates partitioning and transmutation (P-T) and wastes from a cycle which does not. The system model and associated computer code, called AMRAW (Assessment Method for Radioactive Waste), are used for the analysis and are applied to the Los Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico. Because a conservative approach is used throughout, calculated results are believed to be consistently higher than reasonable expectations from actual disruptive incidents at the site and therefore are not directly suited for comparison with other analyses of the particular geologic location. The assessment is made with (1) the probabilistic, or risk, mode that uses combinations of reasonable possible release incidents with their probability of occurrence distributed and applied throughout the assessment period, and (2) the consequence mode that forces discrete release events to occur at specific times. An assessment period of 1 million years is used. The principal results are: (1) In all but the expulsive modes, 99 Tc and 129 I completely dominate cumulative effects based on their transport to man through leaching and movement with groundwater, effecting about 33,000 health effects (deaths) over the 1 million years; (2) P-T has only limited effectiveness in reducing long-term risk from a radionuclide waste repository under the conditions studied, and such effectiveness is essentially confined to the extremely unlikely (probability of occurrence 10 -12 /year) expulsive events; (3) Removal or immobilization of 99 Tc and 129 I might provide benefits sufficiently tangible to warrant special consideration

  7. ANOTHER "LETHAL TRIAD"-RISK FACTORS FOR VIOLENT INJURY AND LONG-TERM MORTALITY AMONG ADULT VICTIMS OF VIOLENT INJURY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laytin, Adam D; Shumway, Martha; Boccellari, Alicia; Juillard, Catherine J; Dicker, Rochelle A

    2018-04-14

    Mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty are risk factors for violent injury, and violent injury is a risk factor for early mortality that can be attenuated through hospital-based violence intervention programs. Most of these programs focus on victims under the age of 30 years. Little is known about risk factors or long-term mortality among older victims of violent injury. To explore the prevalence of risk factors for violent injury among younger (age < 30 years) and older (age 30 ≥ years) victims of violent injury, to determine the long-term mortality rates in these age groups, and to explore the association between risk factors for violent injury and long-term mortality. Adults with violent injuries were enrolled between 2001 and 2004. Demographic and injury data were recorded on enrollment. Ten-year mortality rates were measured. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used to compare older and younger subjects. Among 541 subjects, 70% were over age 30. The overall 10-year mortality rate was 15%, and was much higher than in the age-matched general population in both age groups. Risk factors for violent injury including mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty were prevalent, especially among older subjects, and were each independently associated with increased risk of long-term mortality. Mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty constitute a "lethal triad" that is associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality among victims of violent injury, including both younger adults and those over age 30 years. Both groups may benefit from targeted risk-reduction efforts. Emergency department visits offer an invaluable opportunity to engage these vulnerable patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Childhood fitness reduces the long-term cardiometabolic risks associated with childhood obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, M D; Magnussen, C G; Rees, E; Dwyer, T; Venn, A J

    2016-07-01

    The objective of this study was to examine whether childhood cardiorespiratory fitness attenuates or modifies the long-term cardiometabolic risks associated with childhood obesity. The study consisted of a 20-year follow-up of 1792 adults who participated in the 1985 Australian Schools Health and Fitness Survey when they were 7-15 years of age. Baseline measures included a 1.6-km run to assess cardiorespiratory fitness and waist circumference to assess abdominal adiposity. At follow-up, participants attended study clinics where indicators of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) (waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and lipids) were measured and cardiorespiratory fitness was reassessed using a submaximal graded exercise test. Both high waist circumference and low cardiorespiratory fitness in childhood were significant independent predictors of MetS in early adulthood. The mutually adjusted relative risk of adult MetS was 3.00 (95% confidence interval: 1.85-4.89) for children in the highest (vs lowest) third of waist circumference and 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.43-0.96) for children with high (vs low) cardiorespiratory fitness. No significant interaction between waist circumference and fitness was observed, with higher levels of childhood fitness associated with lower risks of adult MetS among those with either low or high childhood waist circumference values. Participants who had both high waist circumference and low cardiorespiratory fitness in childhood were 8.5 times more likely to have MetS in adulthood than those who had low waist circumference and high cardiorespiratory fitness in childhood. Regardless of childhood obesity status, participants with low childhood fitness who increased their relative fitness by adulthood had a substantially lower prevalence of MetS than those who remained low fit. Childhood waist circumference and cardiorespiratory fitness are both strongly associated with cardiometabolic health in later life. Higher levels of

  9. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  10. Cardiovascular Autonomic Responses in the VCD Rat Model of Menopause: Effects of Short- and Long-Term Ovarian Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Domitila A; Bazilio, Darlan; Lorenzon, Flaviano; Sehnem, Sibele; Pacheco, Lucas; Anselmo-Franci, Janete A; Lima, Fernanda B

    2017-01-01

    After menopause, hypertension elevates the risk of cardiac diseases, one of the major causes of women's morbidity. The gradual depletion of ovarian follicles in rats, induced by 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD), is a model for studying the physiology of menopause. 4-Vinylcyclohexene diepoxide treatment leads to early ovarian failure (OF) and a hormonal profile comparable to menopause in humans. We have hypothesized that OF can compromise the balance between sympathetic and parasympathetic tones of the cardiovascular system, shifting toward dominance of the former. We aimed to study the autonomic modulation of heart and blood vessels and the cardiovascular reflexes in rats presenting short-term (80 days) or long-term (180 days) OF induced by VCD. Twenty-eight-day-old Wistar rats were submitted to VCD treatment (160 mg/kg, intraperitoneally) or vehicle (control) for 15 consecutive days and experiments were conducted at 80 or 180 days after the onset of treatment. Long-term OF led to an increase in the sympathetic activity to blood vessels and an impairment in the baroreflex control of the heart, evoked by physiological changes in arterial pressure. Despite that, long-term OF did not cause hypertension during the 180 days of exposure. Short-term OF did not cause any deleterious effect on the cardiovascular parameters analyzed. These data indicate that long-term OF does not disrupt the maintenance of arterial pressure homeostasis in rats but worsens the autonomic cardiovascular control. In turn, this can lead to cardiovascular complications, especially when associated with the aging process seen during human menopause.

  11. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  12. Long-term endurance sport is a risk factor for development of lone atrial flutter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claessen, Guido; Colyn, Erwin; La Gerche, André; Koopman, Pieter; Alzand, Becker; Garweg, Christophe; Willems, Rik; Nuyens, Dieter; Heidbuchel, Hein

    2011-06-01

    To evaluate whether in a population of patients with 'lone atrial flutter', the proportion of those engaged in long-term endurance sports is higher than that observed in the general population. An age and sex-matched retrospective case-control study. A database with 638 consecutive patients who underwent ablation for atrial flutter at the University of Leuven. Sixty-one patients (55 men, 90%) fitted the inclusion criteria of 'lone atrial flutter', ie, aged 65 years or less, without documented atrial fibrillation and without identifiable underlying disease (including hypertension). Sex, age and inclusion criteria-matched controls, two for each flutter patient, were selected in a general practice in the same geographical region. Sports activity was evaluated by detailed questionnaires, which were available in 58 flutter patients (95%). A transthoracic echocardiogram was performed in all lone flutter patients. Types of sports, number of years of participation and average number of hours per week. The proportion of regular sportsmen (≥3 h of sports practice per week) among patients with lone atrial flutter was significantly higher than that observed in the general population (50% vs 17%; pendurance sports (participation in cycling, running or swimming for ≥3 h/week) was also significantly higher in lone flutter patients than in controls (31% vs 8%; p=0.0003). Those flutter patients performing endurance sports had a larger left atrium than non-sportsmen (p=0.04, by one-way analysis of variance). A history of endurance sports and subsequent left atrial remodelling may be a risk factor for the development of atrial flutter.

  13. Risk factors of long-term sickness absence in Norway and Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vegard Johansen

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Aims: This paper examines the level of long-term sickness absence (LTSA in Norway and Sweden. It also investigates whether risk factors of LTSA are the same in Norway and Sweden. Methods: More than 2500 Norwegian and Swedish workers between 20 and 60 years of age answered a postal questionnaire. The Norwegian and Swedish samples are weighted and representative with regard to regional background variables and demographic background variables, but the response rate was low. LTSA is defined as 15 days or more sickness absence in the previous year. Binary logistic regression is used to detect which factors influence LTSA. The analyses of LTSA include demographic factors, socio-economic position, and occupational characteristics. Results: Nineteen per cent of respondents in Norway and 11 per cent of respondents in Sweden experienced LTSA in the previous year. Many respondents from Sweden report mental problems and many Norwegian respondents report pain in back, neck, knuckles, and muscles. Income level is the most important predictor of LTSA in both countries. The direct impacts of gender, age, and physical work conditions are stronger in Norway than Sweden.Discussion: In accordance with official statistics and previous studies, the proportion of Norwegian respondents with LTSA is much higher than the proportion of Swedish respondents. The different levels of LTSA could be linked to differences in social policy. In line with previous studies, respondents with low income are overrepresented with LTSA, and gender, age, and physical work also matter. In contrast to previous studies, there is not any evidence of higher levels of LTSA among non-western immigrants, people with less education, and non-managers. These results reflect the control for ‘income level’, but they could also be related to limits with the survey (non-response, response bias, etc..

  14. Long-term creep modeling of wood using time temperature superposition principle

    OpenAIRE

    Gamalath, Sandhya Samarasinghe

    1991-01-01

    Long-term creep and recovery models (master curves) were developed from short-term data using the time temperature superposition principle (TTSP) for kiln-dried southern pine loaded in compression parallel-to-grain and exposed to constant environmental conditions (~70°F, ~9%EMC). Short-term accelerated creep (17 hour) and recovery (35 hour) data were collected for each specimen at a range of temperature (70°F-150°F) and constant moisture condition of 9%. The compressive stra...

  15. Meta-analyses: does long-term PPI use increase the risk of gastric premalignant lesions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Layli; Nasseri-Moghaddam, Siavosh

    2013-08-01

    Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most effective agents available for reducing acid secretion. They are used for medical treatment of various acid-related disorders. PPIs are used extensively and for extended periods of time in gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). A troublesome issue regarding maintenance therapy has been the propensity of PPI-treated patients to develop chronic atrophic gastritis while on therapy that could theoretically lead to an increased incidence of gastric cancer. In addition, animal studies have raised concern for development of enterochromaffin-like cell hyperplasia and carcinoid tumors in the stomachs of mice receiving high dose PPIs. Current literature does not provide a clear-cut conclusion on the subject and the reports are sometimes contradictory. Therefore, this study is a systematic review of the available literature to address the safety of long-term PPI use and its relation to the development of malignant/premalignant gastric lesions. A literature search of biomedical databases was performed. The reference lists of retrieved articles were reviewed to further identify relevant trials. We hand-searched the abstracts of the American Digestive Disease Week (DDW) and the United European Gastroenterology Week (UEGW) from 1995 to 2013. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that used PPIs as the primary treatment for at least six month versus no treatment, placebo, antacid or anti-reflux surgery (ARS) were included. Two reviewers independently extracted the data. Discrepancies in the interpretation were resolved by consensus. All analyses of outcomes were based on the intention-to-treat principle. We performed statistical analysis using Review Manager software. The effect measure of choice was relative risk (RR) for dichotomous data. Six RCTs with a total of 785 patients met the inclusion criteria. Two multicenter RCTs compared Esomeprazole with placebo. One RCT compared omeprazole with ARS. Two RCTs compared omeprazole with

  16. Calibrating and validating a FE model for long-term behavior of RC beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tošić Nikola D.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the research carried out in finding an optimal finite element (FE model for calculating the long-term behavior of reinforced concrete (RC beams. A multi-purpose finite element software DIANA was used. A benchmark test in the form of a simply supported beam loaded in four point bending was selected for model calibration. The result was the choice of 3-node beam elements, a multi-directional fixed crack model with constant stress cut-off, nonlinear tension softening and constant shear retention and a creep and shrinkage model according to CEB-FIP Model Code 1990. The model was then validated on 14 simply supported beams and 6 continuous beams. Good agreement was found with experimental results (within ±15%.

  17. Short- and long-term behavioural, physiological and stoichiometric responses to predation risk indicate chronic stress and compensatory mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dievel, Marie; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2016-06-01

    Prey organisms are expected to use different short- and long-term responses to predation risk to avoid excessive costs. Contrasting both types of responses is important to identify chronic stress responses and possible compensatory mechanisms in order to better understand the full impact of predators on prey life history and population dynamics. Using larvae of the damselfly Enallagma cyathigerum, we contrasted the effects of short- and long-term predation risk, with special focus on consequences for body stoichiometry. Under short-term predation risk, larvae reduced growth rate, which was associated with a reduced food intake, increased metabolic rate and reduced glucose content. Under long-term predation risk, larvae showed chronic predator stress as indicated by persistent increases in metabolic rate and reduced food intake. Despite this, larvae were able to compensate for the short-term growth reduction under long-term predation risk by relying on physiological compensatory mechanisms, including reduced energy storage. Only under long-term predation risk did we observe an increase in body C:N ratio, as predicted under the general stress paradigm (GSP). Although this was caused by a predator-induced decrease in N content, there was no associated increase in C content. These stoichiometric changes could not be explained by GSP responses because, under chronic predation risk, there was no decrease in N-rich proteins or increase in C-rich fat and sugars; instead glycogen decreased. Our results highlight the importance of compensatory mechanisms and the value of explicitly integrating physiological mechanisms to obtain insights into the temporal dynamics of non-consumptive effects, including effects on body stoichiometry.

  18. [Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plancke, L; Amariei, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

  19. Do gastrointestinal complaints increase the risk for subsequent medically certified long-term sickness absence? The HUSK study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øverland Simon

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gastrointestinal complaints are very common in the general population and very often co-occur with common mental disorders. We aimed to study the prospective impact of gastrointestinal complaints on long term sickness absence, and address the contribution from co-occurring common mental disorders and other somatic symptoms. Method Health data on 13 880 40-45 year olds from the Hordaland Health Study (1997-99 were linked to national registries on sickness absence. As part of a wider health screening, gastrointestinal complaints were ascertained. Participant's anxiety and depression, and the presence of other somatic symptoms were evaluated. In Cox regression models, we predicted sickness absences over an average 5.4 years follow-up, with adjustment for confounders, anxiety and depression and other somatic symptoms. Results After adjusting for gender, level of education and smoking, those reporting GI complaints had higher risk for later sickness absence (HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.34-1.51. GI complaints were associated with both anxiety (OR = 3.66, 95% CI 3.31-4.04 and depression (OR = 3.28, 95% CI 2.89-3.72, and a high level of other somatic symptoms (OR = 8.50, 95% CI 7.69-9.40. The association of GI complaints was still independently associated with future sickness absence (HR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.10-1.16 adjusting for mental illness and other somatic symptoms. Discussion Sickness absence is a complex behavioural outcome, but our results suggest GI complaints contribute by increasing the risk of long term sickness absence independently of comorbid mental illness and presence of other somatic symptoms. Occupational consequences of illness are important, and should also be addressed clinically with patients presenting with GI complaints.

  20. Tritium: a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carsten, A.L.

    1984-01-01

    The somatic, cytogenetic and genetic effects of single and chronic tritiated water (HTO) ingestion in mice was investigated. This study serves not only as an evaluation of tritium toxicity (TRITOX) but due to its design involving long-term low concentration ingestion of HTO may serve as a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure in general. Long-term studies involved animals maintained on HTO at concentrations of 0.3 μCi/ml, 1.0 μCi/ml, 3.0 μCi/ml or depth dose equivalent chronic external exposures to 137 Cs gamma rays. Maintenance on 3.0 μCi/ml resulted in no effect on growth, life-time shortening or bone marrow cellularity, but did result in a reduction of bone marrow stem cells, an increase in DLM's in second generation animals maintained on this regimen and cytogenetic effects as indicated by increased sister chromatid exchanges (SCE's) in bone marrow cells, increased chromosome aberrations in the regenerating liver and an increase in micronuclei in red blood cells. Biochemical and microdosimetry studies showed that animals placed on the HTO regimen reached tritium equilibrium in the body water in approximately 17 to 21 days with a more gradual increase in bound tritium. When animals maintained for 180 days on 3.0 μCi/ml HTO were placed on a tap water regimen, the tritium level in tissue dropped from the equilibrium value of 2.02 μCi/ml before withdrawal to 0.001 μCi/ml at 28 days. 18 references

  1. Prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury living in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaansen, Jacinthe J E; Douma-Haan, Yvonne; van Asbeck, Floris W A; van Koppenhagen, Casper F; de Groot, Sonja; Smit, Christof A; Visser-Meily, Johanna M A; Post, Marcel W M

    PURPOSE: To describe the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury (SCI) and to compare the prevalence of high blood pressure and/or the use of antihypertensive drugs with the prevalence in the Dutch general population. METHOD: Multicentre

  2. Predicting long-term mortality after Fontan procedures: A risk score based on 6707 patients from 28 studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alsaied, Tarek; Bokma, Jouke P.; Engel, Mark E.; Kuijpers, Joey M.; Hanke, Samuel P.; Zuhlke, Liesl; Zhang, Bin; Veldtman, Gruschen R.

    2017-01-01

    Reported long-term outcome measures vary greatly between studies in Fontan patients making comprehensive appraisal of mortality hazard challenging. We sought to create a clinical risk score to assist monitoring of Fontan patients in the outpatient setting. A systematic review was conducted to

  3. Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schouten, Lianne S.; Bultmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W.; Joling, Catelijne I.; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Roelen, Corne A. M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers

  4. Antipsychotic medication and long-term mortality risk in patients with schizophrenia; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, J; van Rooijen, G; Doedens, P; Numminen, E; van Tricht, M; de Haan, L

    2017-10-01

    Patients with schizophrenia have a higher mortality risk than patients suffering from any other psychiatric disorder. Previous research is inconclusive regarding the association of antipsychotic treatment with long-term mortality risk. To this aim, we systematically reviewed the literature and performed a meta-analysis on the relationship between long-term mortality and exposure to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia. The objectives were to (i) determine long-term mortality rates in patients with schizophrenia using any antipsychotic medication; (ii) compare these with mortality rates of patients using no antipsychotics; (iii) explore the relationship between cumulative exposure and mortality; and (iv) assess causes of death. We systematically searched the EMBASE, MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases for studies that reported on mortality and antipsychotic medication and that included adults with schizophrenia using a follow-up design of more than 1 year. A total of 20 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. These studies reported 23,353 deaths during 821,347 patient years in 133,929 unique patients. Mortality rates varied widely per study. Meta-analysis on a subgroup of four studies showed a consistent trend of an increased long-term mortality risk in schizophrenia patients who did not use antipsychotic medication during follow-up. We found a pooled risk ratio of 0.57 (LL:0.46 UL:0.76 p value schizophrenia without antipsychotic medication require further research. Prospective validation studies, uniform measures of antipsychotic exposure and classified causes of death are commendable.

  5. Workplace social capital and risk of long-term sickness absence. Are associations modified by occupational grade?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rugulies, Reiner; Hasle, Peter; Hyld Pejtersen, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Workplace social capital (WSC) is an emerging topic among both work environment professionals and researchers. We examined (i) whether high WSC protected against risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in a random sample of the Danish workforce during a 1-year follow-up and (ii...

  6. Risk factors for fecal colonization with multiple distinct strains of Escherichia coli among long-term care facility residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautenbach, Ebbing; Tolomeo, Pam; Black, Nicole; Maslow, Joel N

    2009-05-01

    Of 49 long-term care facility residents, 21 (43%) were colonized with 2 or more distinct strains of Escherichia coli. There were no significant risk factors for colonization with multiple strains of E. coli. These results suggest that future efforts to efficiently identify the diversity of colonizing strains will be challenging.

  7. Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, L A Frey; Shields, R K

    2007-01-01

    Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of three muscle models, one linear and two nonlinear, for predicting paralyzed soleus muscle force after exposure to long-term FES training. Further, we contrasted the findings between the trained and untrained limbs. The three models' parameters were best fit to a single force train in the trained soleus muscle (N=4). Nine additional force trains (test trains) were predicted for each subject using the developed models. Model errors between predicted and experimental force trains were determined, including specific muscle force properties. The mean overall error was greatest for the linear model (15.8%) and least for the nonlinear Hill Huxley type model (7.8%). No significant error differences were observed between the trained versus untrained limbs, although model parameter values were significantly altered with training. This study confirmed that nonlinear models most accurately predict both trained and untrained paralyzed muscle force properties. Moreover, the optimized model parameter values were responsive to the relative physiological state of the paralyzed muscle (trained versus untrained). These findings are relevant for the design and control of neuro-prosthetic devices for those with SCI.

  8. Risk of hip, subtrochanteric, and femoral shaft fractures among mid and long term users of alendronate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Eiken, Pia; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine the skeletal safety and efficacy of long term (≥10 years) alendronate use in patients with osteoporosis. DESIGN: Open register based cohort study containing two nested case control studies. SETTING: Nationwide study of population of Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 61 990 men...... ratio (MPR, a proxy for compliance) >80%) compared with poor adherence (MPR

  9. Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

    2015-04-01

    Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to

  10. A Reaction-Diffusion Model for Synapse Growth and Long-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kang; Lisman, John; Hagan, Michael

    Memory storage involves strengthening of synaptic transmission known as long-term potentiation (LTP). The late phase of LTP is associated with structural processes that enlarge the synapse. Yet, synapses must be stable, despite continual subunit turnover, over the lifetime of an encoded memory. These considerations suggest that synapses are variable-size stable structure (VSSS), meaning they can switch between multiple metastable structures with different sizes. The mechanisms underlying VSSS are poorly understood. While experiments and theory have suggested that the interplay between diffusion and receptor-scaffold interactions can lead to a preferred stable size for synaptic domains, such a mechanism cannot explain how synapses adopt widely different sizes. Here we develop a minimal reaction-diffusion model of VSSS for synapse growth, incorporating the recent observation from super-resolution microscopy that neural activity can build compositional heterogeneities within synaptic domains. We find that introducing such heterogeneities can change the stable domain size in a controlled manner. We discuss a potential connection between this model and experimental data on synapse sizes, and how it provides a possible mechanism to structurally encode graded long-term memory. We acknowledge the support from NSF INSPIRE Award number IOS-1526941 (KL, MFH, JL) and the Brandeis Center for Bioinspired Soft Materials, an NSF MRSEC, DMR- 1420382 (MFH).

  11. Maintaining Sexual Desire in Long-Term Relationships: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Kristen P; Lasslo, Julie A

    The most universally experienced sexual response is sexual desire. Though research on this topic has increased in recent years, low and high desire are still problematized in clinical settings and the broader culture. However, despite knowledge that sexual desire ebbs and flows both within and between individuals, and that problems with sexual desire are strongly linked to problems with relationships, there is a critical gap in understanding the factors that contribute to maintaining sexual desire in the context of relationships. This article offers a systematic review of the literature to provide researchers, educators, clinicians, and the broader public with an overview and a conceptual model of nonclinical sexual desire in long-term relationships. First, we systematically identified peer-reviewed, English-language articles that focused on the maintenance of sexual desire in the context of nonclinical romantic relationships. Second, we reviewed a total of 64 articles that met inclusion criteria and synthesized them into factors using a socioecological framework categorized as individual, interpersonal, and societal in nature. These findings are used to build a conceptual model of maintaining sexual desire in long-term relationships. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the existing research and suggest clear directions for future research.

  12. Long-Term Changes in Pain Sensitivity in an Animal Model of Social Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Berry

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Animal models with an eco-ethological relevance can help in identifying novel and reliable stress-related markers. To this end, 3-month-old C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to social defeat (SD stress for 10 days as this stressor shows good face and predictive validity for several models of human affective disorders including depression, social phobia and post-traumatic stress disorder. Social avoidance and pain threshold were assessed 24 h and 4 weeks after the end of SD stress, while corticosterone was assayed at the beginning and at the end of the stressful procedure (days 1 and 10. SD subjects were characterized by increased corticosterone levels (30 min following stress exposure, increased latency to approach the social target in the short-term as well as increased emotionality in the long-term. Moreover, an increase in nociceptive threshold (stress-induced analgesia was found both in the short-term and 4 weeks after the end of stress. These data indicate that the SD paradigm is able to induce emotional changes associated with a stressful/traumatic event. In addition, they indicate that variations in the nociceptive threshold might represent a physiological marker of both short- and long-term effects of stress.

  13. Prenatal exposure to gestational diabetes mellitus as an independent risk factor for long-term neuropsychiatric morbidity of the offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahum Sacks, Kira; Friger, Michael; Shoham-Vardi, Ilana; Abokaf, Hanaa; Spiegel, Efrat; Sergienko, Ruslan; Landau, Daniella; Sheiner, Eyal

    2016-09-01

    The reported rates of gestational diabetes mellitus are constantly escalating and little is known about long-term complications in the offspring. Evidence from the field of epigenetics strongly advocates the need for research on the neuropsychiatric complications in offspring prenatally exposed to gestational diabetes mellitus. We sought to assess whether in utero exposure to gestational diabetes mellitus increases the risk of long-term neuropsychiatric morbidity in the offspring. A population-based cohort study compared the incidence of hospitalizations due to neuropsychiatric disease between singletons exposed and unexposed to gestational diabetes mellitus. Deliveries occurred in the years 1991 through 2014 in a regional tertiary medical center. Perinatal deaths, multiple gestations, mothers with pregestational diabetes or lack of prenatal care, and children with congenital malformations were excluded from the study. A multivariate generalized estimating equation logistic regression model analysis was used to control for confounders and for maternal clusters. During the study period 231,271 deliveries met the inclusion criteria; 5.4% of the births were to mothers diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 12,642), of these 4.3% had gestational diabetes type A1 (n = 10,076) and 1.1% had gestational diabetes type A2 (n = 2566). During the follow-up period, a significant linear association was noted between the severity of the gestational diabetes (no gestational diabetes, gestational diabetes mellitus A1, gestational diabetes mellitus A2) and neuropsychiatric disease of the offspring (1.02% vs 1.36% vs 1.68%, respectively, P gestational diabetes mellitus had higher cumulative incidence of neuropsychiatric morbidity. Using a generalized estimating equation multivariable logistic regression model, controlling for time-to-event, maternal age, gestational age at delivery, maternal obesity, maternal preeclampsia and fertility treatments, maternal gestational

  14. Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila Alejandra Puntel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add

  15. Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2016-01-01

    Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward

  16. Modeling long-term human activeness using recurrent neural networks for biometric data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Zae Myung; Oh, Hyungrai; Kim, Han-Gyu; Lim, Chae-Gyun; Oh, Kyo-Joong; Choi, Ho-Jin

    2017-05-18

    With the invention of fitness trackers, it has been possible to continuously monitor a user's biometric data such as heart rates, number of footsteps taken, and amount of calories burned. This paper names the time series of these three types of biometric data, the user's "activeness", and investigates the feasibility in modeling and predicting the long-term activeness of the user. The dataset used in this study consisted of several months of biometric time-series data gathered by seven users independently. Four recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures-as well as a deep neural network and a simple regression model-were proposed to investigate the performance on predicting the activeness of the user under various length-related hyper-parameter settings. In addition, the learned model was tested to predict the time period when the user's activeness falls below a certain threshold. A preliminary experimental result shows that each type of activeness data exhibited a short-term autocorrelation; and among the three types of data, the consumed calories and the number of footsteps were positively correlated, while the heart rate data showed almost no correlation with neither of them. It is probably due to this characteristic of the dataset that although the RNN models produced the best results on modeling the user's activeness, the difference was marginal; and other baseline models, especially the linear regression model, performed quite admirably as well. Further experimental results show that it is feasible to predict a user's future activeness with precision, for example, a trained RNN model could predict-with the precision of 84%-when the user would be less active within the next hour given the latest 15 min of his activeness data. This paper defines and investigates the notion of a user's "activeness", and shows that forecasting the long-term activeness of the user is indeed possible. Such information can be utilized by a health-related application to proactively

  17. Modelling of chemical evolution of low pH cements at long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Bitouri, Y.; Buffo-Lacarriere, L.; Sellier, A.; Bourbon, X.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the underground radioactive waste repository, low-pH cements were developed to reduce interactions between concrete and clay barrier. These cements contain high proportions of mineral additions like silica fume, fly ash or blast furnace slag for example. The high ratio of cement replacement by pozzolanic additions allows to reduce the pH by a global reduction of Ca/Si ratio of the hydrates (according to the one observed on CEM I pastes). In order to predict the short term development of the hydration for each component of this cement, a multiphasic hydration model, previously developed, is used. The model predicts the evolution of hydration degree of each anhydrous phase and consequently the quantity of each hydrate in paste (CH, aluminates, CSH with different Ca/Si ratios). However, this model is not suitable to determine the long term mineralogical and chemical evolution of the material, due to the internal change induced by chemical imbalance between initial hydrates. In order to evaluate the chemical characteristics of low pH cement based materials, and thus assess its chemical stability in the context of radioactive waste storage, a complementary model of chemical evolution at long term is proposed. This original model is based on 'solid-solution' principles. It assumes that the microdiffusion of calcium plays a major role to explain how the different Ca/Si ratio of initial C-S-H tends together toward a medium stabilized value. The main mechanisms and full development of the model equations are presented first. Next, a comparison of the model with experimental data issue from EDS (Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy) analysis on low pH cement allows to test the model. (authors)

  18. Health incentive research and social justice: does the risk of long term harms to systematically disadvantaged groups bear consideration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Verina; Pratt, Bridget

    2017-03-01

    The ethics of health incentive research-a form of public health research-are not well developed, and concerns of justice have been least examined. In this paper, we explore what potential long term harms in relation to justice may occur as a result of such research and whether they should be considered as part of its ethical evaluation. 'Long term harms' are defined as harms that contribute to existing systematic patterns of disadvantage for groups. Their effects are experienced on a long term basis, persisting even once an incentive research project ends. We will first establish that three categories of such harms potentially arise as a result of health incentive interventions. We then argue that the risk of these harms also constitutes a morally relevant consideration for health incentive research and suggest who may be responsible for assessing and mitigating these risks. We propose that responsibility should be assigned on the basis of who initiates health incentive research projects. Finally, we briefly describe possible strategies to prevent or mitigate the risk of long term harms to members of disadvantaged groups, which can be employed during the design, conduct and dissemination of research projects. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  19. Self-reported Occupational Skin Exposure and Risk of Physician-certified Long-term Sick Leave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alfonso, Jose H; Tynes, Tore; Thyssen, Jacob P

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway. Occupat......Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway....... Occupational skin exposure (in 2009) was measured based on 5 items. The outcome of interest was physician-certified long-term sick leave ≥ 16 days during 2010. Statistical adjustment for psychosocial and mechanical occupational exposures was performed. Long-term sick leave was predicted by occupational skin...... exposure to cleaning products (odds ratio (OR) 1.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-2.5) and waste (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-3.7) among men, and occupational skin exposure to water (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.0-1.6) among women. The estimated population attributable risk for occupational skin exposure was 14...

  20. Modeling long-term yield trends of Miscanthusxgiganteus using experimental data from across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lesur, Claire; Jeuffroy, Marie-Hélène; Makowski, David

    2013-01-01

    and the ceiling phases and (ii) to determine whether M. giganteus ceiling phase is followed by a decline phase where yields decrease across years. Data were analyzed through comparisons between a set of statistical growth models. The model that best fitted the experimental data included a decline phase....... The decline intensity and the value of several other model parameters, such as the maximum yield reached during the ceiling phase or the duration of the establishment phase, were highly variable. The highest maximum yields were obtained in the experiments located in the southern part of the studied area....... giganteus is known to have an establishment phase during which annual yields increased as a function of crop age, followed by a ceiling phase, the duration of which is unknown. We built a database including 16 European long-term experiments (i) to describe the yield evolution during the establishment...

  1. Investment with incomplete markets for risk: The need for long-term contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maere d’Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Ehrenmann, Andreas; Smeers, Yves

    2017-01-01

    Barring subsidies, investment in the power generation sector has come to an almost complete halt in the restructured European power sector. Market and regulatory failures such as the well known missing money (see )) but also normal market features such as risk, possibly also affected by market failures like market incompleteness are mentioned as common causes for the situation. This paper discusses incomplete risk trading and its impact on investment. The analysis applies computable stochastic equilibrium models on a simple market model of the Energy Only type. The paper first compares the cases of complete and fully incomplete markets (full risk trading and no risk trading). It continues by testing the impact of different risk trading contracts on both welfare and investment. We successively consider Contracts for Difference, Reliability Options with and without physical back up that we add to our Energy Only market model. We test the impact of market liquidity on the results. Finally, we compare these methods to a Forward Capacity Market that we also add to the energy only model. We complete the paper by interpretation of these results in terms of hurdle rate implied by these risk-trading situations. - Highlights: • Electricity market designs are discussed based on simulations reflecting risk aversion. • If financial markets are liquid then forward contracts can improve welfare substantially. • If markets cannot provide liquidity, then the welfare improvement is strongly diminished. • Capacity markets can serve as an alternative to contracts.

  2. Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hainoun, A.; Seif Aldin, M.; Almoustafa, S.

    2010-01-01

    An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003-2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy. The employing of sensitivity analysis clarifies the importance of wind turbines operation time and discount rate. The analysis proves that nuclear option is insensitive to overnight cost increase up to 85% of the reference case value.

  3. Long-term leaching from MSWI air-pollution-control residues: Leaching characterization and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyks, Jiri; Astrup, Thomas; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    Long-term leaching of Ca, Fe, Mg, K, Na, S, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mo, Sb, Si, Sri, Sr, Ti, V, P, Cl, and dissolved organic carbon from two different municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control residues was monitored during 24 months of column percolat......Long-term leaching of Ca, Fe, Mg, K, Na, S, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mo, Sb, Si, Sri, Sr, Ti, V, P, Cl, and dissolved organic carbon from two different municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control residues was monitored during 24 months of column...... percolation experiments; liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios of 200-250 L/kg corresponding to more than 10,000 years in a conventional landfill were reached. Less than 2% of the initially present As, Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, and Sb had leached during the Course of the experiments. Concentrations of Cd, Fe, Mg, Hg, Mn, Ni, Co......, Sn, Ti, and P were generally bellow 1 mu g/L; overall less than 1% of their mass leached. Column leaching data were further used in a two-step geochemical modeling in PHREEQC in order to (i) identify solubility controlling minerals and (ii) evaluate their interactions in a water-percolated column...

  4. Long-term following-up of viability of spleen autotransplants in the Beagle canine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajtos, Erika; Balint, Anita; Brath, Endre; Nemeth, Norbert; Peto, Katalin; Kovacs, Judit; Galuska, Laszlo; Varga, Jozsef; Fodor, Zoltan; Furka, Istvan; Miko, Iren

    2012-02-01

    To examine the possible late complications of splenectomy or spleen autotransplantation in large laboratory animal model, in which we need non-invasive or minimal-invasive methods for long-term monitoring of the experimental animals. Experimental groups of beagle dogs were: non-operated control, sham-operated control, splenectomy, spleen autotransplantation with 5 or 10 spleen-chips taken into the greater omentum (Furka's technique). Prior to operations, on the 1(st) postoperative week, monthly till the 6(th) as well as in the 9(th) and 12(th) month, hemorheological examinations were performed. In postoperative 12(th) month colloid scintigraphy and diagnostic laparoscopy were carried out. At the end of the investigation comparative morphological examinations were performed, too. From the 4(th)-5(th) postoperative month filtration function of spleen-autotransplants showed particular restoration compared to splenectomy group. However, the functional results did not reach the values of the control or sham-operated groups. Sham-operated control's scintigraphy nicely showed activity in the spleen. In spleen autotransplantation-groups scintigraphy indicated well the activity of spleen-chips. During diagnostic laparoscopy spleen-chips with their blood supply were found. Histologically, the structure of spleen-autotransplants was similar to normal splenic tissue. The autotransplants are regenerated, their functions have been partly restored, and thus spleen autotransplantation may prevent the possible complications of splenectomy. These parameters and the presented investigative protocol are suitable for long-term following-up of viability of the spleen-autotransplants.

  5. Waste Disposal: Long-term Performance Studies for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Hydrogeological Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marivoet, J

    2000-07-01

    The main objectives of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on long-term performance studies are: (1) to develop a methodology and associated tools for assessing the long-term safety of geological disposal of all types of radioactive waste in clay formations and of the shallow-land burial of low-level waste; (2) to assess the performance and to identify the most influential elements of integrated repository systems for the disposal of radioactive waste; (3) to collect geological, piezometric and hydraulic data required for studying the hydrogeological system in north-eastern Belgium; (4) to develop a regional aquifer model for north-easter Belgium and to apply it in the performance assessments for the Mol site; (5) to test, verify and improve computer codes used in the performance assessment calculations of waste disposal concepts and contaminated sites (the computer codes simulate water flow and transport of radionuclides in engineered barriers, aquifers and contaminated sites). The scientific programme and achievements in 1999 are described.

  6. An assessment of long-term overtopping risk and optimal termination time of dam under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bau-Shian; You, Gene Jiing-Yun

    2013-05-30

    Reservoir management faces a wide range of new challenges resulting from the impact of climate change. One set of challenges arises from the non-stationary nature of hydrological conditions. Another crucial issue is watershed sedimentation, which can significantly influence the sustainability and safety of reservoirs. To address these concerns, this study developed a framework for the management of reservoir risk. An analytical conceptual model coupling physical governing relationships and economic tools was proposed, which was then applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. We adopted a statistical representation of future hydrologic conditions with the assumption of time-variant moments and focused on evaluating the impact of an increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and used a stochastic approach to quantify the risk factors. Our results confirm that this approach can be used to identify reservoir-related risks and generate appropriate options for strategy and policy. We determined that the major source of risk is the hydrological conditions, especially the extreme events. More severe intra-annual climatic change is much more dominant in the risk compared to inter-year trends. The influence of reservoir characteristics on risk is associated mainly with the availability of flood control capacity, but limited due to the limitation of its volume and potential to regulate the flow. Engineering may provide an option for mitigating the risk, but integrated, watershed-level approaches, such as providing systematic detention or land use management, are better suited to reducing the storm peak from a long-term perspective. With a critical increase in the risk of overtopping, a high probability of dam failure and corresponding losses may precipitate the need to retire or remove the facility. However, because the benefits and costs are both huge, the decision may be biased by a conservative attitude. The outcome of small

  7. Long-Term Evaluation of Ocean Tidal Variation Models of Polar Motion and UT1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karbon, Maria; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Belda, Santiago; Nilsson, Tobias; Hagedoorn, Jan; Schuh, Harald

    2018-04-01

    Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results.

  8. Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-12-01

    Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment and Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios. (author)

  9. Integrating Modeling and Monitoring to Provide Long-Term Control of Contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fogwell, Th.

    2009-01-01

    An introduction is presented of the types of problems that exist for long-term control of radionuclides at DOE sites. A breakdown of the distributions at specific sites is given, together with the associated difficulties. A paradigm for remediation showing the integration of monitoring with modeling is presented. It is based on a feedback system that allows for the monitoring to act as principal sensors in a control system. Currently the establishment of a very prescriptive monitoring program fails to have a mechanism for improving models and improving control of the contaminants. The resulting system can be optimized to improve performance. Optimizing monitoring automatically entails linking the monitoring with modeling. If monitoring designs were required to be more efficient, thus requiring optimization, then the monitoring automatically becomes linked to modeling. Records of decision could be written to accommodate revisions in monitoring as better modeling evolves. The technical pieces of the required paradigm are already available; they just need to be implemented and applied to solve the long-term control of the contaminants. An integration of the various parts of the system is presented. Each part is described, and examples are given. References are given to other projects which bring together similar elements in systems for the control of contaminants. Trends are given for the development of the technical features of a robust system. Examples of monitoring methods for specific sites are given. The examples are used to illustrate how such a system would work. Examples of technology needs are presented. Finally, other examples of integrated modeling-monitoring approaches are presented. (authors)

  10. A conceptual framework for a long-term economic model for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Balázs; Setyawan, Juliana; Coghill, David; Soroncz-Szabó, Tamás; Kaló, Zoltán; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2017-06-01

    Models incorporating long-term outcomes (LTOs) are not available to assess the health economic impact of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Develop a conceptual modelling framework capable of assessing long-term economic impact of ADHD therapies. Literature was reviewed; a conceptual structure for the long-term model was outlined with attention to disease characteristics and potential impact of treatment strategies. The proposed model has four layers: i) multi-state short-term framework to differentiate between ADHD treatments; ii) multiple states being merged into three core health states associated with LTOs; iii) series of sub-models in which particular LTOs are depicted; iv) outcomes collected to be either used directly for economic analyses or translated into other relevant measures. This conceptual model provides a framework to assess relationships between short- and long-term outcomes of the disease and its treatment, and to estimate the economic impact of ADHD treatments throughout the course of the disease.

  11. Modelling long term rockslide displacements with non-linear time-dependent relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Caro, Mattia; Volpi, Giorgio; Castellanza, Riccardo; Crosta, Giovanni; Agliardi, Federico

    2015-04-01

    Rockslides undergoing rapid changes in behaviour pose major risks in alpine areas, and require careful characterization and monitoring both for civil protection and mitigation activities. In particular, these instabilities can undergo very slow movement with occasional and intermittent acceleration/deceleration stages of motion potentially leading to collapse. Therefore, the analysis of such instabilities remains a challenging issue. Rockslide displacements are strongly conditioned by hydrologic factors as suggested by correlations with groundwater fluctuations, snowmelt, with a frequently observed delay between perturbation and system reaction. The aim of this work is the simulation of the complex time-dependent behaviour of two case studies for which also a 2D transient hydrogeological simulation has been performed: Vajont rockslide (1960 to 1963) and the recent Mt. de La Saxe rockslide (2009 to 2012). Non-linear time-dependent constitutive relationships have been used to describe long-term creep deformation. Analyses have been performed using a "rheological-mechanical" approach that fits idealized models (e.g. viscoelastic, viscoplastic, elasto-viscoplastic, Burgers, nonlinear visco-plastic) to the experimental behaviour of specific materials by means of numerical constants. Bidimensional simulations were carried out using the finite difference code FLAC. Displacements time-series, available for the two landslides, show two superimposed deformation mechanisms: a creep process, leading to movements under "steady state" conditions (e.g. constant groundwater level), and a "dynamic" process, leading to an increase in displacement rate due to changes of external loads (e.g. groundwater level). For both cases sliding mass is considered as an elasto-plastic body subject to its self-weight, inertial and seepage forces varying with time according to water table fluctuation (due to snowmelt or changing in reservoir level) and derived from the previous hydrogeological

  12. Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden and risk of cognitive decline and dementia among very old women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeki Al Hazzouri, Adina; Vittinghoff, Eric; Byers, Amy; Covinsky, Ken; Blazer, Dan; Diem, Susan; Ensrud, Kristine E; Yaffe, Kristine

    2014-05-01

    Depressive symptoms and cognitive outcomes are strongly interrelated. Despite that rates of depressive symptoms fluctuate during late life, little is known about the impact of long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden on cognitive decline and dementia in older adults. This study examines the association of nearly 20 years of cumulative depressive symptoms with cognitive outcomes in a cohort of older women. We assessed depressive symptoms in 7,240 women using the Geriatric Depression scale (GDS) at serial visits. We used a Poisson model with random slopes to estimate GDS trajectories for each participant from baseline to death or end of follow-up, and then characterized depressive symptom burden by quartile of the area under the curve. We assessed cognitive outcomes using repeated measures of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Trails B score over 20 years, Year-20 neuropsychological test battery, and adjudicated dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Adjusting for potential confounders, compared with women in the lowest quartile of cumulative depressive symptoms burden, women in the highest quartile had 21% more MMSE errors over time (95% CI = 17%, 26%), 20% worse Trails B score over time (95% CI = 17%, 23%), worse scores on most of the Year-20 cognitive tests, and a twofold greater likelihood of developing dementia or MCI (95% CI = 1.48, 3.11). Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden was associated with cognitive decline and risk of dementia or MCI. Older adults with a history of depression should be closely monitored for recurrent episodes or unresolved depressive symptoms as well as any cognitive deficits.

  13. Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

  14. The long-term variability of cosmic ray protons in the heliosphere: A modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. Potgieter

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Galactic cosmic rays are charged particles created in our galaxy and beyond. They propagate through interstellar space to eventually reach the heliosphere and Earth. Their transport in the heliosphere is subjected to four modulation processes: diffusion, convection, adiabatic energy changes and particle drifts. Time-dependent changes, caused by solar activity which varies from minimum to maximum every ∼11 years, are reflected in cosmic ray observations at and near Earth and along spacecraft trajectories. Using a time-dependent compound numerical model, the time variation of cosmic ray protons in the heliosphere is studied. It is shown that the modeling approach is successful and can be used to study long-term modulation cycles.

  15. Differences Awareness Model to Fundament Long Term Strategy Extension in a New Emerging Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Mădălina ŞERBAN

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The globalization opened the opportunity for multinational companies to increase their businesses in emerging markets and also to local giants from developing countries to step in the western markets. The objective of this paper is to propose a model for analyzing the differences between operating businesses in emerging markets and developed markets. The model purpose is to be applied in the strategic process by mainly the multinationals or local giants intending to develop long term businesses outside their traditional geographies. The studies on emerging markets identified two main axes to be considered when appreciating the attractiveness of the markets: the business dynamics both inside and outside the company and the institutional environment, as facilitator of efficient encounter between sellers and buyers.

  16. Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

    2018-03-01

    Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

  17. Clinical Risk Factors for Head Impact During Falls in Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study in Long-Term Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yijian; Mackey, Dawn C; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa; Leung, Pet-Ming; Feldman, Fabio; Robinovitch, Stephen N

    To examine risk factors associated with head impact during falls in older adults in long-term care (LTC). Two LTC facilities in British Columbia, Canada. 160 LTC residents. Prospective cohort study. Between 2007 and 2014, we video captured 520 falls experienced by participants. Each fall video was analyzed to determine whether impact occurred to the head. Using generalized estimating equation models, we examined how head impact was associated with other fall characteristics and health status prior to the fall. Head impact occurred in 33% of falls. Individuals with mild cognitive impairment were at higher risk for head impact (odds ratio = 2.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-5.0) than those with more severe cognitive impairment. Impaired vision was associated with 2.0-fold (1.3-3.0) higher odds of head impact. Women were 2.2 times (1.4-3.3) more likely than men to impact their head during a fall. Head impact is common during falls in LTC, with less cognitively impaired, female residents who suffered from visual impairment, being most likely to impact their head. Future research should focus on improving our ability to detect neural consequences of head impact and evaluating the effect of interventions for reducing the risk for fall-related head injuries in LTC.

  18. Long-term use of metformin and colorectal cancer risk in type II diabetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardel, Majken; Jensen, S. M.; Pottegård, Anton

    2014-01-01

    of prescriptions for a cumulative dose of 2000 g within 5 years prior to the index date. To control for potential confounders, we used unconditional logistic regression. We generated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for the association between metformin and CRC and performed subanalyses for selected subgroups...... and for the dose-response relation. We identified 2088 cases and 9060 controls during the study period. The association between long-term metformin use and CRC gave an adjusted OR at 0.83 (95% CI 0.68-1.00). A protective effect on CRC with long-term use of metformin was only evident for women (OR 0.66 vs. 0.......99 for men). There was a significant dose-response association of metformin use > 250 defined daily dose (DDD) and for the duration of metformin use > 1 year. We found an indication of a protective effect of long-term metformin use against CRC in type II diabetics, although this effect was only seen in women....

  19. Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlhac, X.

    2000-01-01

    The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO 4 , CeCO 2 , ZnCr 2 O 4 ). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO 2 SiO 2 ) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

  20. The regional climate model as a tool for long-term planning of Quebec water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigon, A.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In recent years, important progress has been made in downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model) projections to a resolution where hydrological studies become feasible. Climate change simulations performed with RCMs (Regional Climate Models) have reached a level of confidence that allows us to take advantage of this information in long-term planning of water resources. The RCMs' main advantage consist in their construction based on balanced land as well as atmosphere water and energy budgets, and on their inclusion of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere. Such models therefore generate sequences of weather events, providing long time series of hydro-climatic variables that are internally consistent, allowing the analysis of hydrologic regimes. At OURANOS, special attention is placed on the hydrological cycle, given its key role on socioeconomic activities. The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was developed as a potential tool to provide climate projections at the watershed scale. Various analyses performed over small basins in Quebec provide information on the level of confidence we have in the CRCM for use in hydrological studies. Even though this approach is not free of uncertainty, it was found useful by some water resource managers and hence this information should be considered. One of the keys to retain usefulness, despite the associated uncertainties, is to make use of more than a single regional climate projection. This approach will allow for the evaluation of the climate change signal and its associated level of confidence. Such a methodology is already applied by Hydro-Quebec in the long-term planning of its water resources for hydroelectric generation over the Quebec territory. (author)

  1. Development of a Risk-Based Performance Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems--Application to the Monticello Mill Tailings Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HO, CLIFFORD K.; ARNOLD, BILL W.; COCHRAN, JOHN R.; WEBB, STEPHEN W.; TAIRA, RANDAL Y.

    2001-01-01

    A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology is being developed to assist designers, regulators, and involved stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report presents an example of the risk-based performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results of this study can be used to identify engineering and environmental parameters (e.g., liner properties, long-term precipitation, distribution coefficients) that require additional data to reduce uncertainty in the calculations and improve confidence in the model predictions. These results can also be used to evaluate alternative engineering designs and to identify parameters most important to long-term performance

  2. Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2016-01-01

    Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

  3. Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1997-10-01

    Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

  4. Expert opinion on risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes: An Australian study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Camilla; Kenway, Steven; Hassall, Maureen; Yuan, Zhiguo

    2017-09-01

    The water sector needs to make efficient and prudent investment decisions by carefully considering the long-term viability of water infrastructure projects. To support the assessment and planning of residential recycled water schemes in Australia, we have sought to clarify scheme objectives and to further define the array of critical risks that can impact the long-term viability of schemes. Building on historical information, we conducted a national survey which elicited responses from 88 Australian expert practitioners, of which 64% have over 10 years of industry experience and 42% have experience with more than five residential recycled water schemes. On the basis of expert opinion, residential recycled water schemes are considered to be highly relevant for diversifying and improving water supply security, reducing wastewater effluent discharge and pollutant load to waterways and contributing to sustainable urban development. At present however, the inability to demonstrate an incontestable business case is posing a significant risk to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes. Political, regulatory, organisational and financial factors were also rated as critical risks, in addition to community risk perception and fall in demand. The survey results shed further light on the regulatory environment of residential recycled water schemes, with regulatory participants rating the level and impact of risk factors higher than other survey participants in most cases. The research outcomes provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes, thereby enabling the specification of targeted risk management measures at the assessment and planning stage of a scheme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Long-term risks of kidney living donation: review and position paper by the ERA-EDTA DESCARTES working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggiore, Umberto; Budde, Klemens; Heemann, Uwe; Hilbrands, Luuk; Oberbauer, Rainer; Oniscu, Gabriel C; Pascual, Julio; Schwartz Sorensen, Soren; Viklicky, Ondrej; Abramowicz, Daniel

    2017-02-01

    Two recent matched cohort studies from the USA and Norway published in 2014 have raised some concerns related to the long-term safety of kidney living donation. Further studies on the long-term risks of living donation have since been published. In this position paper, Developing Education Science and Care for Renal Transplantation in European States (DESCARTES) board members critically review the literature in an effort to summarize the current knowledge concerning long-term risks of kidney living donation to help physicians for decision-making purposes and for providing information to the prospective live donors. Long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be partially foreseen by trying to identify donors at risk of developing ‘de novo’ kidney diseases during life post-donation and by predicting lifetime ESRD risk. However, lifetime risk may be difficult to assess in young donors, especially in those having first-degree relatives with ESRD. The study from Norway also found an increased risk of death after living donor nephrectomy, which became visible only after >15 years of post-donation follow-up. However, these findings are likely to be largely the result of an overestimation due to the confounding effect related to a family history of renal disease. DESCARTES board members emphasize the importance of optimal risk–benefit assessment and proper information to the prospective donor, which should also include recommendations on health-promoting behaviour post-donation. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  6. Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

    Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

  7. Modelling impacts of atmospheric deposition and temperature on long-term DOC trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, K; Rowe, E C; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; E I Vanguelova; Wade, A J; J M Clark

    2017-02-01

    It is increasingly recognised that widespread and substantial increases in Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in remote surface, and soil, waters in recent decades are linked to declining acid deposition. Effects of rising pH and declining ionic strength on DOC solubility have been proposed as potential dominant mechanisms. However, since DOC in these systems is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and since organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists over the extent to which other drivers that could influence DOC production. Such potential drivers include fertilisation by nitrogen (N) and global warming. We therefore ran the dynamic soil chemistry model MADOC for a range of UK soils, for which time series data are available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on soil DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to raise the "acid recovery DOC baseline" significantly. In contrast, reductions in non-marine chloride deposition and effects of long term warming appeared to have been relatively unimportant. The suggestion that future DOC concentrations might exceed preindustrial levels as a consequence of nitrogen pollution has important implications for drinking water catchment management and the setting and pursuit of appropriate restoration targets, but findings still require validation from reliable centennial-scale proxy records, such as those being developed

  8. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

  9. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

    2014-01-01

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett–Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network. - Highlights: • We take the Fick diffusion and the Soret diffusion into account in the ion drift theory. • We develop a new model based on the old HP model. • The new model can describe the forgetting effect and the spike-rate-dependent property of memristor. • The new model can solve the boundary effect of all window functions discussed in [13]. • A new Hopfield neural network with the forgetting ability is built by the new memristor model

  10. Groundwater modeling for the long-term safety assessment of uranium tailings ponds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nair, R.N.

    2010-01-01

    Uranium tailings ponds contain naturally occurring long lived radionuclides such as 238 U, 234 U, 230 Th and 226 Ra as sources which are the parents of a very long radionuclide decay chain. Uranium tailings ponds by the virtue of the longevity of its contents may pose as a long-term radiological hazard if not designed and monitored properly. The principal radiation risks from uranium tailings are gamma radiation: windblown radioactive dust dispersion; and radon gas and its progenies. Uranium tailings ponds are also a major source of surface and groundwater contamination due to leaching of radioactive and other toxic elements. In many countries, the tailings ponds are designed to control the radiological hazards for up to 1000 years, to the extent achievable, and in any case for at least 200 years. Stringent regulations stipulations exist worldwide for the safe design, operation and closure of uranium tailings ponds. The long- term radiological impact assessment of uranium tailings ponds, hence, is an extremely important exercise in uranium mining industry. The simulations conducted for uranium over a period of 1000 years indicate that contaminant fronts from the source with a paste permeability of 1x10 -4 m/day would migrate a probable distance of less than 50 m. The maximum computed distance for this case is less than 300 m. Indian studies show that the total annual effective dose to members of the public at 1.0 km from the centre of the tailings pond is trivial up to a period of 4000 y. The estimated dose is 0.01 mSv/y after 10,000 years and it is 10 times lower than 0.1 mSv/y, which is considered as a safe dose limit for drinking water pathway. (author)

  11. Rodent model for assessing the long term safety and performance of peripheral nerve recording electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasudevan, Srikanth; Patel, Kunal; Welle, Cristin

    2017-02-01

    Objective. In the US alone, there are approximately 185 000 cases of limb amputation annually, which can reduce the quality of life for those individuals. Current prosthesis technology could be improved by access to signals from the nervous system for intuitive prosthesis control. After amputation, residual peripheral nerves continue to convey motor signals and electrical stimulation of these nerves can elicit sensory percepts. However, current technology for extracting information directly from peripheral nerves has limited chronic reliability, and novel approaches must be vetted to ensure safe long-term use. The present study aims to optimize methods to establish a test platform using rodent model to assess the long term safety and performance of electrode interfaces implanted in the peripheral nerves. Approach. Floating Microelectrode Arrays (FMA, Microprobes for Life Sciences) were implanted into the rodent sciatic nerve. Weekly in vivo recordings and impedance measurements were performed in animals to assess performance and physical integrity of electrodes. Motor (walking track analysis) and sensory (Von Frey) function tests were used to assess change in nerve function due to the implant. Following the terminal recording session, the nerve was explanted and the health of axons, myelin and surrounding tissues were assessed using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The explanted electrodes were visualized under high magnification using scanning electrode microscopy (SEM) to observe any physical damage. Main results. Recordings of axonal action potentials demonstrated notable session-to-session variability. Impedance of the electrodes increased upon implantation and displayed relative stability until electrode failure. Initial deficits in motor function recovered by 2 weeks, while sensory deficits persisted through 6 weeks of assessment. The primary cause of failure was identified as lead wire breakage in all of animals. IHC indicated myelinated and unmyelinated axons

  12. Long-term composition dynamics of PAH-containing NAPLs and implications for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, C.A.; Knightes, C.D.; Brown, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Subsurface contaminants such as coal tar, creosote, diesel fuel, and other petroleum-derived materials typically exist as very complex chemical mixtures. Risk assessment is useful for site management if a single metric can represent the composition-dependent risk profile of the mixture. This paper examines the factors governing human health risk assessment for multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A model is presented describing the interdependence of the dissolution rates of individual compounds and the shifts in the NAPL composition that occur due to the large differences in aqueous solubilities. The model also accounts for solidification of the less soluble NAPL constituents. Thirty-year numerical simulations describe composition dynamics for natural environmental processes as well as three remediation processes: pump-and-treat, bioremediation, and solvent extraction. Carcinogenic risk due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater at the source is estimated, and its dependence on contaminant removal and NAPL composition shifts is described. When composition dynamics are slow, a compound like naphthalene has great potential to contribute to risk because it may persist in groundwater. When there is significant depletion of the lower molecular weight compounds, the risk is dominated by contributions from compounds such as benzo[a]pyrene. Remediation technologies have the greatest potential for risk reduction if they are effective in removing the more carcinogenic, high molecular weight compounds. Because PAHs can contribute to risk for different reasons and because of the interdependence of their behaviors, compositional approaches lead to better risk predictions for PAHs than simple lumped metrics such as total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)

  13. Improved maternal nutrition decreases children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robertson, Aileen

    Improved maternal nutrition to decrease children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity The nutritional well-being of pregnant women affects not only their health and their fetuses' development but also children's long-term risk of developing NCDs or obesity, according...... to a new report from WHO/Europe. "Good maternal nutrition. The best start in life" was launched under the auspices of the Minister of Health of Latvia during a consultation on maternal nutrition, in Riga on 27–28 June 2016. While the importance of good nutrition in the early development of children has...... – affects not only her child's health as an infant but also the child's risk of obesity and related chronic diseases as an adult. In short, maternal nutrition can truly have an intergenerational impact. Fighting NCDs and obesity through measures to improve maternal nutrition: NCDs are the leading cause...

  14. Modelling accumulation of radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems originating from a long-term groundwater contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaerdenaes, Annemieke I. [Dept. of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7001, 750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Eckersten, Henrik [Dept. of Ecology and Crop Production, SLU, P.O. Box 7042, 750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Reinlert, Andre [Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, 223 62 Lund (Sweden); MMT, Sven Kaellfelts Gata 11 SE 426 71 Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden); Gustafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Dept. Land and Water Resources, KTH, SE 100 44, Stockholm (Sweden); Ekstroem, Per-Anders [Facilia AB, Gustavlundsvaegen 151A, 167 51 Bromma (Sweden); Greger, Maria [Dept. of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    This study was conducted as part of the risk assessment of final deposits of nuclear fuel waste. The overall objective is to assess the possible accumulation of radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems after an eventual long-term groundwater contamination. The specific objectives are to assess: i) What proportion of the contamination will accumulate in the soil-plant-system? ii) Where in the soil-plant- system will it accumulate? iii) Which ecosystem characteristics and radionuclides properties are important for the accumulation? and iv) Under which circumstances do losses from the ecosystems occur? We developed the dynamic model Tracey (Gaerdenaes et al. 2009) describing cycling of radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems with high temporal resolution (1 day). The model is a multi-compartmental model in which fluxes and storage of radionuclides are described for different plant parts and soil pools in each of the 10 soil layers. The radionuclide fluxes are driven either by water or carbon fluxes. The water and the carbon fluxes are simulated with the dynamic, bio-geophysical Coup Model (Jansson and Karlberg, 2004). Tracey includes two root uptake approaches of radionuclides; (i) passive uptake driven by root water uptake and (ii) active uptake driven by plant growth. A linear approach describes the adsorption of radionuclides to soil particles and organic matter. Tracey was applied on two ecosystems with contrasting hydrology, the mixed Pinus-Picea forests found in the dry, elevated areas and the Alnus forests found in the wet, low-land areas of Uppland in central east Sweden. Different varieties of the two forest types were created by varying the root depth and radiation use efficiency. The climate was cold-temperate and based on 30-year daily weather data from Uppsala. The assumed groundwater contamination was close to 1 mg of an unspecified radionuclide per m2 and year. This load corresponds to 1 Bq per m{sup 2} and year of {sup 238}U, a common long

  15. Threshold of musculoskeletal pain intensity for increased risk of long-term sickness absence among female healthcare workers in eldercare.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars L Andersen

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Musculoskeletal disorders increase the risk for absenteeism and work disability. However, the threshold when musculoskeletal pain intensity significantly increases the risk of sickness absence among different occupations is unknown. This study estimates the risk for long-term sickness absence (LTSA from different pain intensities in the low back, neck/shoulder and knees among female healthcare workers in eldercare. METHODS: Prospective cohort study among 8,732 Danish female healthcare workers responding to a questionnaire in 2004-2005, and subsequently followed for one year in a national register of social transfer payments (DREAM. Using Cox regression hazard ratio (HR analysis we modeled risk estimates of pain intensities on a scale from 0-9 (reference 0, where 0 is no pain and 9 is worst imaginable pain in the low back, neck/shoulders and knees during the last three months for onset of LTSA (receiving sickness absence compensation for at least eight consecutive weeks during one-year follow-up. RESULTS: During follow-up, the 12-month prevalence of LTSA was 6.3%. With adjustment for age, BMI, smoking and leisure physical activity, the thresholds of pain intensities significantly increasing risk of LTSA for the low back (HR 1.44 [95%CI 1.07-1.93], neck/shoulders (HR 1.47 [95%CI 1.10-1.96] and knees (HR 1.43 [95%CI 1.06-1.93] were 5, 4 and 3 (scale 0-9, respectively, referencing pain intensity of 0. CONCLUSION: The threshold of pain intensity significantly increasing the risk for LTSA among female healthcare workers varies across body regions, with knee pain having the lowest threshold. This knowledge may be used in the prevention of LTSA among health care workers.

  16. Surrogates of Long-Term Vitamin D Exposure and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Two Prospective Cohort Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prescott, Jennifer, E-mail: jennifer.prescott@channing.harvard.edu; Bertrand, Kimberly A.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Tworoger, Shelley S. [Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, 181 Longwood Ave. Boston, MA 02115 (United States)

    2013-11-22

    Experimental evidence and ecologic studies suggest a protective role of vitamin D in ovarian carcinogenesis. However, epidemiologic studies using individual level data have been inconsistent. We evaluated ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation, vitamin D intake, and predicted plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels as long-term surrogates of vitamin D exposure within the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. We estimated incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of overall ovarian cancer and by histologic subtype using Cox proportional hazards models. Between 1976 and 2010 in NHS and 1989 and 2011 in NHSII, we identified a total of 1,225 incident epithelial ovarian cancer cases (NHS: 970, NHSII: 255) over 4,628,648 person-years of follow-up. Cumulative average UV-B exposure was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in NHS (P{sub trend} = 0.08), but was associated with reduced risk in NHSII (highest vs. lowest category RR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.89; P{sub trend} < 0.01). When stratified by histologic subtype, UV-B flux was positively associated with risk of serous tumors in NHS (P{sub trend} < 0.01), but inversely associated in NHSII (P{sub trend} = 0.01). Adjusted for confounders, ovarian cancer risk was not associated with vitamin D intake from food or supplements or with predicted 25(OH)D levels. Our study does not strongly support a protective role for vitamin D in ovarian cancer risk.

  17. Verification of atmospheric diffusion models using data of long term atmospheric diffusion experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, Junji; Kido, Hiroko; Hato, Shinji; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2009-03-01

    Straight-line or segmented plume models as atmospheric diffusion models are commonly used in probabilistic accident consequence assessment (PCA) codes due to cost and time savings. The PCA code, OSCAAR developed by Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (Present; Japan Atomic Energy Agency) uses the variable puff trajectory model to calculate atmospheric transport and dispersion of released radionuclides. In order to investigate uncertainties involved with the structure of the atmospheric dispersion/deposition model in OSCAAR, we have introduced the more sophisticated computer codes that included regional meteorological models RAMS and atmospheric transport model HYPACT, which were developed by Colorado State University, and comparative analyses between OSCAAR and RAMS/HYPACT have been performed. In this study, model verification of OSCAAR and RAMS/HYPACT was conducted using data of long term atmospheric diffusion experiments, which were carried out in Tokai-mura, Ibaraki-ken. The predictions by models and the results of the atmospheric diffusion experiments indicated relatively good agreements. And it was shown that model performance of OSCAAR was the same degree as it of RAMS/HYPACT. (author)

  18. Establishing the long-term fuel management scheme using point reactivity model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Yong-Soo; Kim, Jae-Hak; Lee, Young-Ouk; Song, Jae-Woong; Zee, Sung-Kyun

    1994-01-01

    A new approach to establish the long-term fuel management scheme is presented in this paper. The point reactivity model is used to predict the core average reactivity. An attempt to calculate batchwise power fraction is introduced through the two-dimensional nodal power algorithm based on the modified one-group diffusion equation and the number of fuel assemblies on the core periphery. Suggested is an empirical formula to estimate the radial leakage reactivity with ripe core design experience reflected. This approach predicts the cycle lengths and the discharge burnups of individual fuel batches up to an equilibrium core when the proper input data such as batch enrichment, batch size, type and content of burnable poison and reloading strategies are given. Eight benchmark calculations demonstrate that the new approach used in this study is reasonably accurate and highly efficient for the purpose of scoping calculation when compared with design code predictions. (author)

  19. Modelling the long-term evolution of geological radwaste disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dames and Moore International Twickenham

    1990-01-01

    The report aims to answer questions such as How much do we know about environmental change, How does it apply to the performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal sites and What methods are available for incorporating considerations of environmental change into performance assessment. The document comprises two parts: Part 1 presents a review of the status of research into the effects of long-term environmental changes on deep land disposal facilities for radioactive waste, and then outlines a general specification for modelling these efforts; Part 2 presents background research on permafrost evolution and its potential effects on groundwater systems. Although much work exists on the growth of ice in soils, at shallow levels, relatively little is known about the growth of deep permafrost. A large appendix is devoted to the theoretical work on permafrost growth and its conclusions

  20. Long-term behaviour of concrete in water saturated media - Experimental and modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peycelon, H; Mazoin, C

    2004-07-01

    In the context of the nuclear long-lived radioactive waste management, cement-based materials are currently used for waste encapsulation and containers development. Such materials are also likely to be used for engineered barriers in deep repositories. Various types of cement - CEM I, CEM V - have been currently studied, mainly to evaluate materials long-term durability. Studies have been performed on the leaching behavior of hardened cement pastes based on these cements. The effect of temperature is taking into account. Leaching experiments for 25 deg C, 50 deg C and 85 deg C were carried out with a standard test developed at CEA. Experimental results were analyzed and calculations were made to estimate calcium fluxes and degraded thicknesses. Experimental and modelling results were compared. (authors)

  1. Change of exposure response over time and long-term risk of silicosis among a cohort of Chinese pottery workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yi; Bochmann, Frank; Morfeld, Peter; Ulm, Kurt; Liu, Yuewei; Wang, Heijiao; Yang, Lei; Chen, Weihong

    2011-07-01

    An analysis was conducted on a cohort of Chinese pottery workers to estimate the exposure-response relationship between respirable crystalline silica dust exposure and the incidence of radiographically diagnosed silicosis, and to estimate the long-term risk of developing silicosis until the age of 65. The cohort comprised 3,250 employees with a median follow-up duration of around 37 years. Incident cases of silicosis were identified via silicosis registries (Chinese X-ray stage I, similar to International Labor Organisation classification scheme profusion category 1/1). Individual exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust was estimated based on over 100,000 historical dust measurements. The association between dust exposure, incidence and long-time risk of silicosis was quantified by Poisson regression analysis adjusted for age and smoking. The risk of silicosis depended not only on the cumulative respirable crystalline silica dust exposures, but also on the time-dependent respirable crystalline silica dust exposure pattern (long-term average concentration, highest annual concentration ever experienced and time since first exposure). A long-term "excess" risk of silicosis of approximately 1.5/1,000 was estimated among workers with all annual respirable crystalline silica dust concentration estimates less than 0.1 mg/m(3), using the German measurement strategy. This study indicates the importance of proper consideration of exposure information in risk quantification in epidemiological studies.

  2. Change of Exposure Response over Time and Long-Term Risk of Silicosis among a Cohort of Chinese Pottery Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuewei Liu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available An analysis was conducted on a cohort of Chinese pottery workers to estimate the exposure-response relationship between respirable crystalline silica dust exposure and the incidence of radiographically diagnosed silicosis, and to estimate the long-term risk of developing silicosis until the age of 65. The cohort comprised 3,250 employees with a median follow-up duration of around 37 years. Incident cases of silicosis were identified via silicosis registries (Chinese X-ray stage I, similar to International Labor Organisation classification scheme profusion category 1/1. Individual exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust was estimated based on over 100,000 historical dust measurements. The association between dust exposure, incidence and long-time risk of silicosis was quantified by Poisson regression analysis adjusted for age and smoking. The risk of silicosis depended not only on the cumulative respirable crystalline silica dust exposures, but also on the time-dependent respirable crystalline silica dust exposure pattern (long-term average concentration, highest annual concentration ever experienced and time since first exposure. A long-term “excess” risk of silicosis of approximately 1.5/1,000 was estimated among workers with all annual respirable crystalline silica dust concentration estimates less than 0.1 mg/m3, using the German measurement strategy. This study indicates the importance of proper consideration of exposure information in risk quantification in epidemiological studies.

  3. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

    2016-02-01

    Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

  4. Implementing CUAHSI and SWE observation data models in the long-term monitoring infrastructure TERENO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klump, J. F.; Stender, V.; Schroeder, M.

    2013-12-01

    Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO) is an interdisciplinary and long-term research project spanning an Earth observation network across Germany. It includes four test sites within Germany from the North German lowlands to the Bavarian Alps and is operated by six research centers of the Helmholtz Association. The contribution by the participating research centers is organized as regional observatories. The challenge for TERENO and its observatories is to integrate all aspects of data management, data workflows, data modeling and visualizations into the design of a monitoring infrastructure. TERENO Northeast is one of the sub-observatories of TERENO and is operated by the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ in Potsdam. This observatory investigates geoecological processes in the northeastern lowland of Germany by collecting large amounts of environmentally relevant data. The success of long-term projects like TERENO depends on well-organized data management, data exchange between the partners involved and on the availability of the captured data. Data discovery and dissemination are facilitated not only through data portals of the regional TERENO observatories but also through a common spatial data infrastructure TEODOOR. TEODOOR bundles the data, provided by the different web services of the single observatories, and provides tools for data discovery, visualization and data access. The TERENO Northeast data infrastructure integrates data from more than 200 instruments and makes the data available through standard web services. Data are stored following the CUAHSI observation data model in combination with the 52° North Sensor Observation Service data model. The data model was implemented using the PostgreSQL/PostGIS DBMS. Especially in a long-term project, such as TERENO, care has to be taken in the data model. We chose to adopt the CUAHSI observational data model because it is designed to store observations and descriptive information (metadata

  5. Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Rayamajhi, Min B.; Botkin, Daniel B.

    2017-01-01

    ContextMelaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (hereafter melaleuca) is an invasive tree from Australia that has spread over the freshwater ecosystems of southern Florida, displacing native vegetation, thus threatening native biodiversity. Suppression of melaleuca appears to be progressing through the introduction of insect species, the weevil, Oxiops vitiosa, and the psyllid, Boreioglycaspis melaleucae.ObjectiveTo improve understanding of the possible effects of herbivory on the landscape dynamics of melaleuca in native southern Florida plant communities.MethodsWe projected likely future changes in plant communities using the individual based modeling platform, JABOWA-II, by simulating successional processes occurring in two types of southern Florida habitat, cypress swamp and bay swamp, occupied by native species and melaleuca, with the impact of insect herbivores.ResultsComputer simulations show melaleuca invasion leads to decreases in density and basal area of native species, but herbivory would effectively control melaleuca to low levels, resulting in a recovery of native species. When herbivory was modeled on pure melaleuca stands, it was more effective in stands with initially larger-sized melaleuca. Although the simulated herbivory did not eliminate melaleuca, it decreased its presence dramatically in all cases, supporting the long-term effectiveness of herbivory in controlling melaleuca invasion.ConclusionsThe results provide three conclusions relevant to management: (1) The introduction of insect herbivory that has been applied to melaleuca appears sufficient to suppress melaleuca over the long term, (2) dominant native species may recover in about 50 years, and (3) regrowth of native species will further suppress melaleuca through competition.

  6. Long-term records and modelling of acidification, recovery and liming at Lake Hovvatn, Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hindar, A. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Grimstad (Norway); Wright, R.F. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Oslo (Norway)

    2005-11-01

    Scenarios for acidification in Europe have shown that large parts of southern Norway will be negatively impacted by sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions in the future. Long-term data of acidification and recovery as well as the effects of a liming program at Lake Store Hovvatn were presented in this paper, along with data collected from Lake Lille Hovvatn as unlimed reference. Water samples from the lakes were collected 5 times annually from varying depths. Total organic carbon was measured after wet chemical oxidation by infrared detection. Acidification hindcasts and forecasts for the period 1870-2050 were conducted with the dynamic model MAGIC, which simulated soil solution and surface water chemistry to predict average concentrations of the major ions. The model showed good agreement with major changes in water chemistry observed over the past 30 years, as well simulating pH and concentrations of inorganic aluminium (Al). The data were evaluated in terms of the prospects for the re-establishment of a self-sustaining brown trout population. All liming efforts at Lake Store Hovvatn resulted in improvements in water quality. However, the stocked fish showed excellent survival and growth rates after liming but no natural recruitment, which suggested that fish eggs at shallow depths under ice cover are a sensitive biological indicator. Continuous records of pH revealed serious difficulties in maintaining adequate water quality at shallow depths in winter. While various liming techniques were discussed, it was concluded that the problem of surface water acidification in southern Norway is not solved, and a long-term strategy is called for. 45 refs., 5 tabs., 6 figs.

  7. Systemic inflammation combined with neonatal cerebellar haemorrhage aggravates long-term structural and functional outcomes in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Sophie; Pai, Alex; Richter, Lindsay; Vafaei, Rod; Potluri, Praneetha; Ellegood, Jacob; Lerch, Jason P; Goldowitz, Daniel

    2017-11-01

    Despite the increased recognition of cerebellar injury in survivors of preterm birth, the neurodevelopmental consequences of isolated cerebellar injury have been largely unexplored and our current understanding of the functional deficits requires further attention in order to translate knowledge to best practices. Preterm infants are exposed to multiple stressors during their postnatal development including perinatal cerebellar haemorrhage (CBH) and postnatal infection, two major risk factors for neurodevelopmental impairments. We developed a translational mouse model of CBH and/or inflammation to measure the short- and long-term outcomes in cerebellar structure and function. Mice exposed to early combined insults of CBH and early inflammatory state (EIS) have a delay in grasping acquisition, neonatal motor deficits and deficient long-term memory. CBH combined with late inflammatory state (LIS) does not induce neonatal motor problems but leads to poor fine motor function and long-term memory deficits at adulthood. Early combined insults result in poor cerebellar growth from postnatal day 15 until adulthood shown by MRI, which are reflected in diminished volumes of cerebellar structures. There are also decreases in volumes of gray matter and hippocampus. Cerebellar microgliosis appears 24h after the combined insults and persists until postnatal day 15 in the cerebellar molecular layer and cerebellar nuclei in association with a disrupted patterning of myelin deposition, a delay of oligodendrocyte maturation and reduced white matter cerebellar volume. Together, these findings reveal poor outcomes in developing brains exposed to combined cerebellar perinatal insults in association with cerebellar hypoplasia, persistence of microgliosis and alterations of cerebellar white matter maturation and growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul-Yong Lee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the long-term, crude oil prices may impact the economic stability and sustainability of many countries, especially those depending on oil imports. This study thus suggests an alternative model for accurately forecasting oil prices while reflecting structural changes in the oil market by using a Bayesian approach. The prior information is derived from the recent and expected structure of the oil market, using a subjective approach, and then updated with available market data. The model includes as independent variables factors affecting oil prices, such as world oil demand and supply, the financial situation, upstream costs, and geopolitical events. To test the model’s forecasting performance, it is compared with other models, including a linear ordinary least squares model and a neural network model. The proposed model outperforms on the forecasting performance test even though the neural network model shows the best results on a goodness-of-fit test. The results show that the crude oil price is estimated to increase to $169.3/Bbl by 2040.

  9. Modelling Long-Term Evolution of Cementitious Materials Used in Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, D.; Perko, J.; Seetharam, S.; Govaerts, J.; Mallants, D.

    2013-01-01

    This report summarizes the latest developments at SCK-CEN in modelling long-term evolution of cementitious materials used as engineered barriers in waste disposal. In a first section chemical degradation of concrete during leaching with rain and soil water types is discussed. The geochemical evolution of concrete thus obtained forms the basis for all further modelling. Next we show how the leaching model is coupled with a reactive transport module to determine leaching of cement minerals under diffusive or advective boundary conditions. The module also contains a simplified microstructural model from which hydraulic and transport properties of concrete may be calculated dynamically. This coupled model is simplified, i.e. abstracted prior to being applied to large-scale concrete structures typical of a near-surface repository. Both the original and simplified models are then used to calculate the evolution of hydraulic, transport, and chemical properties of concrete. Characteristic degradation states of concrete are further linked to distribution ratios that describe sorption onto hardened cement via a linear and reversible sorption process. As concrete degrades and pH drops the distribution ratios are continuously updated. We have thus integrated all major chemical and physical concrete degradation processes into one simulator for a particular scale of interest. Two simulators are used: one that can operate at relatively small spatial scales using all process details and another one which simulates concrete degradation at the scale of the repository but with a simplified cement model representation. (author)

  10. Timing and risk of mood disorders requiring psychotropics in long-term survivors of adult cancers: A nationwide cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wen-Kuan; Juang, Yeong-Yuh; Chung, Chia-Chi; Chang, Shu-Hao; Chang, John Wen-Cheng; Lin, Yung-Chang; Wang, Hung-Ming; Chang, Hsien-Kun; Chen, Jen-Shi; Tsai, Chieh-Sheng; Yu, Kuang-Hui; Kuo, Chang-Fu; See, Lai-Chu

    2018-08-15

    The increasing number of long-term cancer survivors over the past few decades poses the challenge of mental health care needs. However, little is known about risks of mood disorders in long-term cancer survivors. Long-term survivors (≥5 years) of adult cancers (LSAC) (n = 190,748) newly diagnosed between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2007 were matched with one control. The primary outcome was diagnosis of mood disorders requiring psychotropics. Cumulative incidences and sub-hazard ratios (SHR) were calculated and multivariate analyses were conducted after accounting for mortality. The mood disorder risk was significantly higher in the LSAC cohort than in the control cohort (adjusted SHR = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13-1.18, P < 0.001). Patients with certain cancer types were at increased risk, particularly in the first 2 years after diagnosis. However, patients with head and neck cancers or esophageal cancers had a higher risk after the 5-year follow-up period. Multivariate analysis indicated that being female, aged 40-59 years, with more than two primary cancers, receiving two or more treatment modalities, having CCI scores higher than 3, a higher urbanization level, and lower monthly income were independently associated with an increased risk of mood disorders. Some potential confounders such as lifestyle factors were not available in the study. These findings call for increased mental health awareness not only in the early years after the cancer diagnosis, but also during long-term follow-up for certain cancer subtypes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren; Stangerup, Sven-Eric; Cayé-Thomasen, Per; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Olsen, Jørgen H; Johansen, Christoffer

    2011-08-15

    Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of ≥11 years was not related to an increased vestibular schwannoma risk in men (relative risk estimate = 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.52, 1.46), and no vestibular schwannoma cases among long-term subscribers occurred in women versus 1.6 expected. Vestibular schwannomas did not occur more often on the right side of the head, although the majority of Danes reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma and possible diagnostic delay, further surveillance is indicated.

  12. Long-term allopurinol use decreases the risk of prostate cancer in patients with gout: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, H-J; Kao, M-C; Tsai, P-S; Fan, Y-C; Huang, C-J

    2017-09-01

    Clinical observations indicated an increased risk of developing prostate cancer in gout patients. Chronic inflammation is postulated to be one crucial mechanism for prostate carcinogenesis. Allopurinol, a widely used antigout agent, possesses potent anti-inflammation capacity. We elucidated whether allopurinol decreases the risk of prostate cancer in gout patients. We analyzed data retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance Database between January 2000 and December 2012. Patients diagnosed with gout during the study period with no history of prostate cancer and who had never used allopurinol were selected. Four allopurinol use cohorts (that is, allopurinol use (>365 days), allopurinol use (181-365 days), allopurinol use (91-180 days) and allopurinol use (31-90 days)) and one cohort without using allopurinol (that is, allopurinol use (No)) were included. The study end point was the diagnosis of new-onset prostate cancer. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and propensity score-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between the risk of prostate cancer and allopurinol treatment in gout patients after adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 25 770 gout patients (aged between 40 and 100 years) were included. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that the risk of developing prostate cancer in the allopurinol use (>365 days) cohort was significantly lower than the allopurinol use (No) cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.45-0.9, P=0.011). After propensity score adjustment, the trend remained the same (adjusted HR=0.66, 95% CI=0.46-0.93, P=0.019). Long-term (more than 1 year) allopurinol use may associate with a decreased risk of prostate cancer in gout patients.

  13. Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

    2017-04-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

  14. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  15. Solid waste: terminological and long-term environmental risk assessment problems exemplified in a power plant fly ash study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twardowska, Irena; Szczepanska, Jadwiga

    2002-02-21

    Legal definitions exert a significant impact on the waste management strategy. Waste that is technically suitable for recovery does not automatically become a raw material if there is no market for it, or its use is not commercially effective and, hence, they should be disposed of. The majority of disposed wastes, including recyclable waste, are not environmentally safe. Waste as a freshly generated anthropogenic material is not geochemically stable. Przezchlebie fly ash surface pond (Upper Silesia, Poland) in the post-closure stage was subject to field validation of the results of laboratory leaching/extraction tests and long-term column experiments on fly ash (FA) leaching behaviour under controlled conditions for environmental risk assessment. The study showed: (i) the possibility of a discontinuous non-linear time delayed increase of pollution potential of disused 'non-hazardous' large-volume waste in the dumping sites to the hazardous level; (ii) inconsistency of the laboratory leaching tests and the actual leaching behaviour of trace metals, particularly when equilibria conditions are dictated by kinetically determined reactions where the test results reflected entirely wash-out (I) and dissolution (II) phases, but did not comprise delayed release (III) phase; and (iii) necessity of life-cycle screening/monitoring of 'non-hazardous' dumping sites for contaminant release as a function of the primary (pH-Eh, ionic strength, ionic composition of solute) and secondary controlling factors (L/S-liquid to solid ratio, water flow conditions) along the vertical profile of an anthropogenic or natural vadose zone. These data are to be used to develop long-term predictive hydrogeochemical models and their field validation, and for providing an early warning and remedial actions with respect to the particular site. The formation of pH (and Eh) as a function of time-dependent (kinetically defined) processes appeared to be a key issue for a correct prediction of the

  16. A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, V. R.

    2011-12-01

    On the premise that fast climate fluctuations up to and including the 11-year solar cycle play a negligible role in long-term climate forecasting, we remove these from the 160-year HADCRUT3 global land-sea temperature record and model the result as the sum of a log-raised-exponential (log(b+exp(t))) and two sine waves of respective periods 56 and 75 years coinciding in phase in 1925. The latter two can be understood equivalently as a 62-year-period "carrier" modulated with a 440-year period that peaked in 1925 and vanished in 1705. This model gives an excellent fit, explaining 98% of the variance (r^2) of long-term climate over the 160 years. We derive the first component as the composition of Arrhenius's 1896 logarithmic dependence of surface temperature on CO2 with Hofmann's 2009 raised-exponential dependence of CO2 on time, but interpret its fit to the data as the net anthropogenic contribution incorporating all greenhouse and aerosol emissions and relevant feedbacks, bearing in mind the rapid growth in both population and technology. The 56-year oscillation matches the largest component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while the 75-year one is near an oscillation often judged to be in the vicinity of 70 years. The expected 1705 cancellation is about two decades earlier than suggested by Gray et al's tree-ring proxy for the AMO during 1567-1990 [Gray GPL 31, L12205]. While there is no consensus on the origin of ocean oscillations, the oscillations in geomagnetic secular variation noted by Nagata and Rimitake in 1963 and Slaucitajs and Winch in 1965, of respective periods 77 years and 61 years, correspond strikingly with our 76-year oscillation and 62-year "carrier." This model has a number of benefits. Simplicity. It is easily explained to a lay audience in response to the frequently voiced concern that the temperature record is poorly correlated with the CO2 record alone. It shows that the transition from natural to anthropogenic influences on long-term

  17. Long-Term Adult Feline Liver Organoid Cultures for Disease Modeling of Hepatic Steatosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig S. Kruitwagen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Hepatic steatosis is a highly prevalent liver disease, yet research is hampered by the lack of tractable cellular and animal models. Steatosis also occurs in cats, where it can cause severe hepatic failure. Previous studies demonstrate the potential of liver organoids for modeling genetic diseases. To examine the possibility of using organoids to model steatosis, we established a long-term feline liver organoid culture with adult liver stem cell characteristics and differentiation potential toward hepatocyte-like cells. Next, organoids from mouse, human, dog, and cat liver were provided with fatty acids. Lipid accumulation was observed in all organoids and interestingly, feline liver organoids accumulated more lipid droplets than human organoids. Finally, we demonstrate effects of interference with β-oxidation on lipid accumulation in feline liver organoids. In conclusion, feline liver organoids can be successfully cultured and display a predisposition for lipid accumulation, making them an interesting model in hepatic steatosis research. : In this study Kruitwagen and colleagues establish and characterize a feline liver organoid culture, which has adult stem cell properties and can be differentiated toward hepatocyte-like cells. They propose liver organoids as a tool to model hepatic steatosis and show that feline liver organoids accumulate more lipids than human organoids when provided with excess fatty acids. Keywords: feline liver organoids, adult liver stem cells, hepatic steatosis, disease modeling, feline hepatic lipidosis, species differences

  18. Modelling the long-term durability of concrete barriers for radioactive waste disposals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerard, B.; Didry, O.; Marchand, J.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.; Hornain, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the past decades, cement-based materials have been increasingly used for the construction of radioactive-waste barriers. The design of durable structures for this specific application requires a precise knowledge of the evolution of the engineering properties of the materials over a 1000-year period. Given the intricate nature of the physical mechanisms involved, a reliable prediction of the long term behavior of the concrete barriers can only be made through modelling and numerical developments. After a brief literature survey in which the main aspects of the problem are outlined, the features of a new modelling approach are presented. The main originality of this approach resides in the fact that the model considers the various chemical and mechanical solicitations and their eventual couplings. The physical and thermodynamical bases behind the development of the model are detailed. A section of the paper is specifically devoted to the experimental techniques (accelerated leaching test, assessment of the permeability and mechanical behavior of concretes under tensile loading, characterization of the concrete microstructure and microcracking by image-analysis) designed to validate the model. Results of selected numerical simulations are presented in the last section of the paper. The main difficulties associated with the implantation of such a model in a finite-element code are discussed. (author)

  19. Study of archaeological analogs for the validation of nuclear glass long-term behavior models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verney-Carron, A.

    2008-10-01

    Fractured archaeological glass blocks collected from a shipwreck discovered in the Mediterranean Sea near Embiez Island (Var) were investigated because of their morphological analogy with vitrified nuclear waste and of a known and stable environment. These glasses are fractured due to a fast cooling after they were melted (like nuclear glass) and have been altered for 1800 years in seawater. This work results in the development and the validation of a geochemical model able to simulate the alteration of a fractured archaeological glass block over 1800 years. The kinetics associated with the different mechanisms (interdiffusion and dissolution) and the thermodynamic parameters of the model were determined by leaching experiments. The model implemented in HYTEC software was used to simulate crack alteration over 1800 years. The consistency between simulated alteration thicknesses and measured data on glass blocks validate the capacity of the model to predict long-term alteration. This model is able to account for the results from the characterization of crack network and its state of alteration. The cracks in the border zone are the most altered due to a fast renewal of the leaching solution, whereas internal cracks are thin because of complex interactions between glass alteration and transport of elements in solution (influence of initial crack aperture and of the crack sealing). The lowest alteration thicknesses, as well as their variability, can be explained. The analog behavior of archaeological and nuclear glasses from leaching experiments makes possible the transposition of the model to nuclear glass in geological repository. (author)

  20. The long-term risk of malignant astrocytic tumors after structural brain injury--a nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch, Tina Noergaard; Gørtz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    % CI: 0.49-0.90) compared with no injury. The specific long-term risks by type of injury were: traumatic brain injury RR = 0.32 (95% CI: 0.10-0.75); cerebral ischemic infarction RR = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.47-0.96); and intracerebral hemorrhage RR = 1.39 (95% CI: 0.64-2.60). CONCLUSION: We found no evidence......BACKGROUND: Neoplastic transformation of damaged astrocytes has been proposed as a possible pathological mechanism behind malignant astrocytic tumors. This study investigated the association between structural brain injuries causing reactive astrogliosis and long-term risk for malignant astrocytic...... tumors. METHODS: The cohort consisted of all individuals living in Denmark between 1978 and 2011. The personal identification number assigned to all individuals allowed retrieval of diagnoses of traumatic brain injury, cerebral ischemic infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage from the National Patient...

  1. Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren

    2011-01-01

    Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier...... and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of =11 years was not related to an increased vestibular...... reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma...

  2. Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren

    2011-01-01

    Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier...... and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of ≥11 years was not related to an increased vestibular...... reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma...

  3. Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

    2017-04-01

    The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and

  4. Long-term impact of preeclampsia on maternal endometrial cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallum, Sara; Pinborg, Anja; Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Endometrial cancer is mainly dependent on oestrogen exposure. Preeclampsia has shown to reduce oestrogen levels hence preeclampsia may affect later endometrial cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 523 Danish women with endometrial cancer and 52 299controls during...... 1978-2010. The association between preeclampsia and later endometrial cancer was evaluated overall and according to preeclampsia onset and type of endometrial cancer in conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed no overall association between preeclampsia and endometrial cancer risk...... (OR=1.11 (95% CI 0.68-1.81)). This was true for all endometrial cancer subtypes. In an analysis of preeclampsia onset, however, we report a markedly increased risk of endometrial cancer following early-onset preeclampsia (OR=2.64 (95% CI 1.29-5.38)). CONCLUSIONS: Although we report no obvious...

  5. Waste partitioning and transmutation as a means towards long-term risk reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merz, E.R.

    1993-09-01

    It has been an idea for some time to reduce the long-term potential hazard of the waste by chemical removal of the actinides as well as some long-lived fission products and their subsequent transmutation in an intense neutron flux. Transmutation would thus shorten the required containment period of radioactive material in a repository. It is estimated, that development of such technology would take at least 40 years because facilities would be required to perform a clean actinide and fission product isolation and to fabricate the fuel elements that contained the separated nuclides. This latter requirements would involve a major expansion of new chemical process steps which are not available as yet. Development of new equipment to maintain occupational exposures as low as reasonably achievable and to minimize releases of radioactivity to the environment would also be necessary. Partitioning and transmutation should be introduced, if at all, as a long-term decision about new nuclear power technology as a future energy source. With regard to this, R and D work dealing with basic questions seems to be worthwhile, However, the introduction of partitioning and transmutation will not eliminate the need for radioactive waste disposal. (orig./HP) [de

  6. Time-series modeling: applications to long-term finfish monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bireley, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    The growing concern and awareness that developed during the 1970's over the effects that industry had on the environment caused the electric utility industry in particular to develop monitoring programs. These programs generate long-term series of data that are not very amenable to classical normal-theory statistical analysis. The monitoring data collected from three finfish programs (impingement, trawl and seine) at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station were typical of such series and thus were used to develop methodology that used the full extent of the information in the series. The basis of the methodology was classic Box-Jenkins time-series modeling; however, the models also included deterministic components that involved flow, season and time as predictor variables. Time entered into the models as harmonic regression terms. Of the 32 models fitted to finfish catch data, 19 were found to account for more than 70% of the historical variation. The models were than used to forecast finfish catches a year in advance and comparisons were made to actual data. Usually the confidence intervals associated with the forecasts encompassed most of the observed data. The technique can provide the basis for intervention analysis in future impact assessments

  7. Risk factors and analysis of long-term headache in sporadic vestibular schwannoma: a multicenter cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Matthew L; Tveiten, Øystein Vesterli; Driscoll, Colin L; Boes, Christopher J; Sullan, Molly J; Goplen, Frederik K; Lund-Johansen, Morten; Link, Michael J

    2015-11-01

    The primary goals of this study were: 1) to examine the influence of disease and treatment on headache in patients with sporadic vestibular schwannoma (VS); and 2) to identify clinical predictors of long-term headache disability. This was a cross-sectional observational study with international multicenter enrollment. Patients included those with primary sporadic Headache Disability Inventory (HDI), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and a VS symptom questionnaire. The main outcome measures were univariate and multivariable associations with HDI total score. The overall survey response rate was 79%. Data from 538 patients with VS were analyzed. The mean age at time of survey was 64 years, 56% of patients were female, and the average duration between treatment and survey was 7.7 years. Twenty-seven percent of patients received microsurgery, 46% stereotactic radiosurgery, and 28% observation. Patients with VS who were managed with observation were more than twice as likely to have severe headache disability compared with 103 control subjects without VS. When accounting for baseline differences, there was no statistically significant difference in HDI outcome between treatment modalities at time of survey. Similarly, among the microsurgery cohort, the long-term risk of severe headache disability was not different between surgical approaches. Multivariable regression demonstrated that younger age, greater anxiety and depression, and a preexisting diagnosis of headache were the primary predictors of severe long-term headache disability, while tumor size and treatment modality had little influence. At a mean of almost 8 years following treatment, approximately half of patients with VS experience headaches of varying frequency and severity. Patient-driven factors including age, sex, mental health, and preexisting headache syndrome are the strongest predictors of long-term severe headache disability. Tumor size and treatment modality have less impact. These data

  8. Nuclear Radiation Fields on the Mars Surface: Risk Analysis for Long-term Living Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brooke M.; Clowdsley, Martha S.; Qualls, Garry D.; Nealy, John E.

    2005-01-01

    Mars, our nearest planet outward from the sun, has been targeted for several decades as a prospective site for expanded human habitation. Background space radiation exposures on Mars are expected to be orders of magnitude higher than on Earth. Recent risk analysis procedures based on detailed dosimetric techniques applicable to sensitive human organs have been developed along with experimental data regarding cell mutation rates resulting from exposures to a broad range of particle types and energy spectra. In this context, simulated exposure and subsequent risk for humans in residence on Mars are examined. A conceptual habitat structure, CAD-modeled with duly considered inherent shielding properties, has been implemented. Body self-shielding is evaluated using NASA standard computerized male and female models. The background environment is taken to consist not only of exposure from incident cosmic ray ions and their secondaries, but also include the contribution from secondary neutron fields produced in the tenuous atmosphere and the underlying regolith.

  9. Long-term dietary patterns and carotid artery intima media thickness: the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkilä, Vera; Räsänen, Leena; Laaksonen, Marika M L; Juonala, Markus; Viikari, Jorma; Pietinen, Pirjo; Raitakari, Olli T

    2009-11-01

    A whole-diet approach has proven useful for characterising dietary exposure in cardiovascular epidemiology research. In our previous analyses, we found dietary patterns to be significant determinants of CVD risk factor levels among the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns cohort. We investigated the associations of major dietary patterns with carotid intima media thickness (IMT), a subclinical predictor of CVD, in healthy adults. The Young Finns Study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up to date. The subjects were children and adolescents at baseline in 1980 (aged 3-18 years), and all had reached adulthood by the latest follow-up in 2001 (aged 24-39 years). Complete dietary data from the years 1980, 1986 and 2001 and outcome data from the year 2001 were obtained from 785 subjects. The long-term average pattern score for a traditional dietary pattern (characterised by high consumption of rye, potatoes, butter, sausages, milk and coffee) was associated with IMT especially among subjects with a low score for the health-conscious dietary pattern (characterised by high consumption of vegetables, legumes and nuts, rye, tea, cheese and other dairy products). In multivariable regression analyses using long-term pattern scores as predictors, the traditional dietary pattern was independently associated with IMT in men (P < 0.01), but not in women (P = 0.66). Long-term adherence to traditional food choices seems to increase the risk of developing subclinical atherosclerosis among Finnish men.

  10. Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality and Amputation after Open and Endovascular Treatment of Acute Limb Ischemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genovese, Elizabeth A; Chaer, Rabih A; Taha, Ashraf G; Marone, Luke K; Avgerinos, Efthymios; Makaroun, Michel S; Baril, Donald T

    2016-01-01

    Acute limb ischemia (ALI) is a highly morbid and fatal vascular emergency with little known about contemporary, long-term patient outcomes. The goal was to determine predictors of long-term mortality and amputation after open and endovascular treatment of ALI. A retrospective review of ALI patients at a single institution from 2005 to 2011 was performed to determine the impact of revascularization technique on 5-year mortality and amputation. For each main outcome 2 multivariable models were developed; the first adjusted for preoperative clinical presentation and procedure type, the second also adjusted for postoperative adverse events (AEs). A total of 445 limbs in 411 patients were treated for ALI. Interventions included surgical thrombectomy (48%), emergent bypass (18%), and endovascular revascularization (34%). Mean age was 68 ± 15 years, 54% were male, and 23% had cancer. Most patients presented with Rutherford classification IIa (54%) or IIb (39%). The etiology of ALI included embolism (27%), in situ thrombosis (28%), thrombosed bypass grafts (32%), and thrombosed stents (13%). Patients treated with open procedures had significantly more advanced ischemia and higher rates of postoperative respiratory failure, whereas patients undergoing endovascular interventions had higher rates of technical failure. Rates of postprocedural bleeding and cardiac events were similar between both treatments. Excluding Rutherford class III patients (n = 12), overall 5-year mortality was 54% (stratified by treatment, 65% for thrombectomy, 63% for bypass, and 36% for endovascular, P < 0.001); 5-year amputation was 28% (stratified by treatment, 18% for thrombectomy, 27% for bypass, and 17% for endovascular, P = 0.042). Adjusting for comorbidities, patient presentation, AEs, and treatment method, the risk of mortality increased with age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, P < 0.001), female gender (HR = 1.50, P = 0.031), cancer (HR = 2.19, P < 0.001), fasciotomy (HR = 1.69, P = 0.204) in

  11. Modeling studies of unsaturated flow with long-term permeability change at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chengyuan; Liu Xiaoyan; Liu Quansheng

    2008-01-01

    The amount of water seeping into the waste emplacement drifts is crucial for the performance of underground nuclear waste repository, since it controls the corrosion rates of waste packages and the mobilization rate of radionuclides. It is limited by water flow through drift vicinity. In the present work we study the potential rates of water flow around drifts as a function of predicted long-term change of permeability at Yucca Mountain, based on a dual-continuum model of the unsaturated flow in fractured rock mass. For stage of DECOVALEX Ⅳ, we used a simplified practical model on unsaturated flow in Yucca Mountain case simulation. These models contain main physical processes that should be considered, including thermal expansion, thermal radiation, water-rock coupling and stress-induced change of permeability. Comparative study with other DECOVALEX team's results shows that they are both good enough and flexible enough to include more physical processes. We can draw the conclusion that it is necessary to model stress-induced changes in permeability and relative processes in future studies, because there are obvious differences (in water saturation and water flux) between simulation cases with and without variable permeability, especially in areas very close to the drift. (authors)

  12. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  13. Long-Term Adult Feline Liver Organoid Cultures for Disease Modeling of Hepatic Steatosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruitwagen, Hedwig S; Oosterhoff, Loes A; Vernooij, Ingrid G W H; Schrall, Ingrid M; van Wolferen, Monique E; Bannink, Farah; Roesch, Camille; van Uden, Lisa; Molenaar, Martijn R; Helms, J Bernd; Grinwis, Guy C M; Verstegen, Monique M A; van der Laan, Luc J W; Huch, Meritxell; Geijsen, Niels; Vries, Robert G; Clevers, Hans; Rothuizen, Jan; Schotanus, Baukje A; Penning, Louis C; Spee, Bart

    2017-04-11

    Hepatic steatosis is a highly prevalent liver disease, yet research is hampered by the lack of tractable cellular and animal models. Steatosis also occurs in cats, where it can cause severe hepatic failure. Previous studies demonstrate the potential of liver organoids for modeling genetic diseases. To examine the possibility of using organoids to model steatosis, we established a long-term feline liver organoid culture with adult liver stem cell characteristics and differentiation potential toward hepatocyte-like cells. Next, organoids from mouse, human, dog, and cat liver were provided with fatty acids. Lipid accumulation was observed in all organoids and interestingly, feline liver organoids accumulated more lipid droplets than human organoids. Finally, we demonstrate effects of interference with β-oxidation on lipid accumulation in feline liver organoids. In conclusion, feline liver organoids can be successfully cultured and display a predisposition for lipid accumulation, making them an interesting model in hepatic steatosis research. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Improving an Integer Linear Programming Model of an Ecovat Buffer by Adding Long-Term Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gijs J. H. de Goeijen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Ecovat is a seasonal thermal storage solution consisting of a large underground water tank divided into a number of virtual segments that can be individually charged and discharged. The goal of the Ecovat is to supply heat demand to a neighborhood throughout the entire year. In this work, we extend an integer linear programming model to describe the charging and discharging of such an Ecovat buffer by adding a long-term (yearly planning step to the model. We compare the results from the model using this extension to previously obtained results and show significant improvements when looking at the combination of costs and the energy content of the buffer at the end of the optimization. Furthermore, we show that the model is very robust against prediction errors. For this, we compare two different cases: one case in which we assume perfect predictions are available and one case in which we assume no predictions are available. The largest observed difference in costs between these two cases is less than 2%.

  15. Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  16. Behavioral cues to expand a pain model of the cognitively impaired elderly in long-term care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burfield AH

    2012-07-01

    residents. Patients most at risk are those with mild to severe cognitive decline, or those unable to report pain verbally. Nursing homes are under great scrutiny to maintain standards of care and provide uniform high-quality care outcomes. Existing data from federally required resident surveys can serve as a valuable tool to identify indicators of pain and trends in care. Great responsibility lies in ensuring pain is included and monitored as a quality measure in long-term care, especially for residents unable to communicate their pain verbally.Keywords: cognitive impairment, minimum data set, pain behaviors, structural equation modeling, theoretical model

  17. Conformal irradiation of the prostate: estimating long-term rectal bleeding risk using dose-volume histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartford, Alan C.; Niemierko, Andrzej; Adams, Judith A.; Urie, Marcia M.; Shipley, William U.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) may be very useful tools for estimating probability of normal tissue complications (NTCP), but there is not yet an agreed upon method for their analysis. This study introduces a statistical method of aggregating and analyzing primary data from DVHs and associated outcomes. It explores the dose-volume relationship for NTCP of the rectum, using long-term data on rectal wall bleeding following prostatic irradiation. Methods and Materials: Previously published data were reviewed and updated on 41 patients with Stages T3 and T4 prostatic carcinoma treated with photons followed by perineal proton boost, including dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of each patient's anterior rectal wall and data on the occurrence of postirradiation rectal bleeding (minimum FU > 4 years). Logistic regression was used to test whether some individual combination of dose and volume irradiated might best separate the DVHs into categories of high or low risk for rectal bleeding. Further analysis explored whether a group of such dose-volume combinations might be superior in predicting complication risk. These results were compared with results of the 'critical volume model', a mathematical model based on assumptions of underlying radiobiological interactions. Results: Ten of the 128 tested dose-volume combinations proved to be 'statistically significant combinations' (SSCs) distinguishing between bleeders (14 out of 41) and nonbleeders (27 out of 41), ranging contiguously between 60 CGE (Cobalt Gray Equivalent) to 70% of the anterior rectal wall and 75 CGE to 30%. Calculated odds ratios for each SSC were not significantly different across the individual SSCs; however, analysis combining SSCs allowed segregation of DVHs into three risk groups: low, moderate, and high. Estimates of probabilities of normal tissue complications (NTCPs) based on these risk groups correlated strongly with observed data (p = 0.003) and with biomathematical model-generated NTCPs

  18. Impact of type 1 diabetes on maternal long-term risk of hospitalisation and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knorr, Sine; Juul, Svend; Bytoft, Birgitte

    2018-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aims of this study were to examine long-term mortality and morbidity rates in mothers with type 1 diabetes, both overall and according to the level of albuminuria prior to pregnancy, the presence of hypertension, pre-eclampsia and periconceptional HbA1c. METHODS: This study...... was a part of the EPICOM (Environmental Versus Genetic and Epigenetic Influences on Growth, Metabolism and Cognitive Function in Offspring of Mothers with Type 1 Diabetes) study, which is a prospective follow-up study focusing on pregnancies complicated by maternal type 1 diabetes. We carried out...... a nationwide combined clinical and register-based cohort study of mortality rates and hospital admissions in mothers with diabetes (n = 986) who gave birth between 1992 and 2000. Control mothers (n = 91,441) were women from the background population, matched according to age and year of childbirth. Age...

  19. The Future Demand for Long-term Carers in Germany: Model Calculations for the Federal Länder until 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Pohl

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The increase in the birth rate shortfall, at the same time as an increase in life expectancy, will lead to more elderly people living in Germany in future, in both relative and absolute terms. The possible development in the demand for professional long-term carers until 2020 for the individual Federal Länder is illustrated in this essay using model calculations. Because of the differences in demographic change between the Federal Länder, the labour market for long-term care will develop heterogeneously in the federal territory as a whole. The increase in the number of persons in need of long-term care from its current level of 2.25 million to a forecast level of 2.9 million by 2020 will mean that professional long-term care in particular will continue to become more significant in Germany as a whole. The demand for long-term carers (in full-time equivalent posts could increase from its current level of 561,000 to up to 900,000 by 2020. The actual development on the professional labour market will however be heavily dependent on the commitment of care-giving relatives. Additionally, possible productivity advances in the provision of long-term care services will play a role, as can be shown in various scenarios of the model calculations.

  20. A modeling framework for optimal long-term care insurance purchase decisions in retirement planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Aparna; Li, Lepeng

    2004-05-01

    The level of need and costs of obtaining long-term care (LTC) during retired life require that planning for it is an integral part of retirement planning. In this paper, we divide retirement planning into two phases, pre-retirement and post-retirement. On the basis of four interrelated models for health evolution, wealth evolution, LTC insurance premium and coverage, and LTC cost structure, a framework for optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions in the pre-retirement phase is developed. Optimal decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums and coverage. Two-way branching models are used to model stochastic health events and asset returns. The resulting optimization problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem. We compare the optimal decision under two insurance purchase scenarios: one assumes that insurance is purchased for good and other assumes it may be purchased, relinquished and re-purchased. Sensitivity analysis is performed for the retirement age.

  1. Models of Disease Vector Control: When Can Aggressive Initial Intervention Lower Long-Term Cost?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduro, Bismark; Grijalva, Mario J; Just, Winfried

    2018-04-01

    Insecticide spraying of housing units is an important control measure for vector-borne infections such as Chagas disease. As vectors may invade both from other infested houses and sylvatic areas and as the effectiveness of insecticide wears off over time, the dynamics of (re)infestations can be approximated by [Formula: see text]-type models with a reservoir, where housing units are treated as hosts, and insecticide spraying corresponds to removal of hosts. Here, we investigate three ODE-based models of this type. We describe a dual-rate effect where an initially very high spraying rate can push the system into a region of the state space with low endemic levels of infestation that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate cost, while in the absence of an aggressive initial intervention the same average cost would only allow a much less significant reduction in long-term infestation levels. We determine some sufficient and some necessary conditions under which this effect occurs and show that it is robust in models that incorporate some heterogeneity in the relevant properties of housing units.

  2. Examining a "Household" Model of Residential Long-term Care in Nova Scotia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janice Keefe

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, Nova Scotia began to implement its Continuing Care Strategy which was grounded in a vision of providing client-centered care for continuing care clients, including residents of nursing homes. Considerable evidence pointed to the benefits of the “household” model of care—which led the province to adopt the smaller self-contained household model as a requirement for owners/operators seeking to build government-funded new and replacement nursing homes. The specific goals of the reform (the adoption of the household model included increasing the proportion of single rooms, improving the home-likeness of the facility, and more generally, providing high-quality care services. The reform was influenced by recognition of the need for change, rapid population aging in the province, and strong political will at a time when fiscal resources were available. To achieve the reform, Nova Scotia Department of Health released two key documents (2007 to guide the design and operation of all new and replacement facilities procured using a request for proposal process: The Long Term Care Program Requirements and the Space and Design Requirements. Results from a research study examining resident quality of life suggest regardless of physical design or staffing approach high resident quality of life can be experienced, while at the same time recognizing that the facilities with “self-contained household” design and expanded care staff roles were uniquely supporting relationships and home-likeness and positively impacting resident quality of life.

  3. Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monnet, A.; Gabriel, S.; Percebois, J.

    2016-01-01

    Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on 'geological environments'. It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance), and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a distribution of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures. (authors)

  4. Long-term consequences of a prolonged febrile seizure in a dual pathology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Steve; Chattopadhyaya, Bidisha; Desgent, Sébastien; Awad, Patricia N; Clerk-Lamalice, Olivier; Levesque, Maxime; Vianna, Rose-Mari; Rébillard, Rose-Marie; Delsemme, Andrée-Anne; Hébert, David; Tremblay, Luc; Lepage, Martin; Descarries, Laurent; Di Cristo, Graziella; Carmant, Lionel

    2011-08-01

    Clinical evidence suggests that febrile status epilepticus (SE) in children can lead to acute hippocampal injury and subsequent temporal lobe epilepsy. The contribution of febrile SE to the mechanisms underlying temporal lobe epilepsy are however poorly understood. A rat model of temporal lobe epilepsy following hyperthermic SE was previously established in our laboratory, wherein a focal cortical lesion induced at postnatal day 1 (P1), followed by a hyperthermic SE (more than 30 min) at P10, leads to hippocampal atrophy at P22 (dual pathology model) and spontaneous recurrent seizures (SRS) with mild visuospatial memory deficits in adult rats. The goal of this study was to identify the long term electrophysiological, anatomical and molecular changes in this model. Following hyperthermic SE, all cortically lesioned pups developed progressive SRS as adults, characterized by the onset of highly rhythmic activity in the hippocampus. A reduction of hippocampal volume on the side of the lesion preceded the SRS and was associated with a loss of hippocampal neurons, a marked decrease in pyramidal cell spine density, an increase in the hippocampal levels of NMDA receptor NR2A subunit, but no significant change in GABA receptors. These findings suggest that febrile SE in the abnormal brain leads to hippocampal injury that is followed by progressive network reorganization and molecular changes that contribute to the epileptogenesis as well as the observed memory deficits. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Congestion management in power systems. Long-term modeling framework and large-scale application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertsch, Joachim; Hagspiel, Simeon; Just, Lisa

    2015-06-15

    In liberalized power systems, generation and transmission services are unbundled, but remain tightly interlinked. Congestion management in the transmission network is of crucial importance for the efficiency of these inter-linkages. Different regulatory designs have been suggested, analyzed and followed, such as uniform zonal pricing with redispatch or nodal pricing. However, the literature has either focused on the short-term efficiency of congestion management or specific issues of timing investments. In contrast, this paper presents a generalized and flexible economic modeling framework based on a decomposed inter-temporal equilibrium model including generation, transmission, as well as their inter-linkages. Short and long-term effects of different congestion management designs can hence be analyzed. Specifically, we are able to identify and isolate implicit frictions and sources of inefficiencies in the different regulatory designs, and to provide a comparative analysis including a benchmark against a first-best welfare-optimal result. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework, we calibrate and numerically solve our model for a detailed representation of the Central Western European (CWE) region, consisting of 70 nodes and 174 power lines. Analyzing six different congestion management designs until 2030, we show that compared to the first-best benchmark, i.e., nodal pricing, inefficiencies of up to 4.6% arise. Inefficiencies are mainly driven by the approach of determining cross-border capacities as well as the coordination of transmission system operators' activities.

  6. Modelling long term energy consumption of French residential sector - improving behavioral realism and simulating ambitious scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allibe, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    This thesis aims to integrate components of an economic model of the behaviors of households in a technological model of French residential sector energy consumption dynamics and to analyze the consequences of this integration on the results of long-term residential energy consumption simulations (2030-2050). The results of this work highlight significant differences between the actual household space heating energy consumptions and those estimated by engineering models. These differences are largely due to the elasticity of thermal comfort demand to thermal comfort price. Our improved model makes it possible to conjointly integrate the concepts of price elasticity and rebound effect (the increase in energy service level following an improvement in energy performance of the equipment providing the service) in a daily behavior model. Regarding space heating consumption, the consequences of this behavioral adaptation - combined with some technical defects - are a significant reduction of the technical and behavioral energy saving potentials (while effective daily use of energy is generally lower than predicted by engineering models) at a national level. This implies that mid and long-term national energy policy targets (a 38% drop in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared to the 1990 level) will be harder to reach than previously expected for the residential sector. These results also imply that a strong reduction in carbon emissions cannot be achieved solely through the diffusion of efficient technologies and energy conservation behavior but also requires to significantly lower the average carbon content of residential space heating energy through the generalized use of wood energy. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the influence of the resolution of a techno-economic model (i.e. its ability to represent the various values that a variable can have within the modeled system) on its

  7. Informing the Long-Term Learner Model: Motivating the Adult Learner (Phase 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-28

    memory systems: 1) short - term memory , 2) working memory , and 3) long - term memory . The short - term memory stores the information for brief periods of...and the episodic buffer, which is linked to long - term memory . The visual working memory shares parts and interacts with attention (Gazzaley and...Nobre 2012; Zanto et al. 2011). Short - term memory is limited in its importance to

  8. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  9. Long-term medical costs and life expectancy of acute myeloid leukemia: a probabilistic decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Han-I; Aas, Eline; Howell, Debra; Roman, Eve; Patmore, Russell; Jack, Andrew; Smith, Alexandra

    2014-03-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) can be diagnosed at any age and treatment, which can be given with supportive and/or curative intent, is considered expensive compared with that for other cancers. Despite this, no long-term predictive models have been developed for AML, mainly because of the complexities associated with this disease. The objective of the current study was to develop a model (based on a UK cohort) to predict cost and life expectancy at a population level. The model developed in this study combined a decision tree with several Markov models to reflect the complexity of the prognostic factors and treatments of AML. The model was simulated with a cycle length of 1 month for a time period of 5 years and further simulated until age 100 years or death. Results were compared for two age groups and five different initial treatment intents and responses. Transition probabilities, life expectancies, and costs were derived from a UK population-based specialist registry-the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org). Overall, expected 5-year medical costs and life expectancy ranged from £8,170 to £81,636 and 3.03 to 34.74 months, respectively. The economic and health outcomes varied with initial treatment intent, age at diagnosis, trial participation, and study time horizon. The model was validated by using face, internal, and external validation methods. The results show that the model captured more than 90% of the empirical costs, and it demonstrated good fit with the empirical overall survival. Costs and life expectancy of AML varied with patient characteristics and initial treatment intent. The robust AML model developed in this study could be used to evaluate new diagnostic tools/treatments, as well as enable policy makers to make informed decisions. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Enhanced long term microcircuit plasticity in the valproic acid animal model of autism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme T Silva

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A single intra-peritoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA on embryonic day (ED 11.5 to pregnant rats has been shown to produce severe autistic-like symptoms in the offspring. Previous studies showed that the microcircuitry is hyperreactive due to hyperconnectivity of glutamatergic synapses and hyperplastic due to over-expression of NMDA receptors. These changes were restricted to the dimensions of a mini-column (<50μm. In the present study, we explored whether Long Term Microcircuit Plasticity (LTMP was altered in this animal model. We performed multi-neuron patch-clamp recordings on clusters of layer V pyramidal cells in somatosensory cortex brain slices (PN 12-15, mapped the connectivity and characterized the synaptic properties for connected neurons. Pipettes were then withdrawn and the slice was perfused with 100μM sodium glutamate in artificial cerebrospinal fluid in the recording chamber for 12 h. When we re-patched the same cluster of neurons, we found enhanced LTMP only at inter-somatic distances beyond minicolumnar dimensions. These data suggest that hyperconnectivity is already near its peak within the dimensions of the minicolumn in the treated animals and that LTMP, which is normally restricted to within a minicolumn, spills over to drive hyperconnectivity across the dimensions of a minicolumn. This study provides further evidence to support the notion that the neocortex is highly plastic in response to new experiences in this animal model of autism.

  11. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Olsen, Are; Heinze, Christoph; Bopp, Laurent; Roy, Tilla

    2014-01-01

    We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO 2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO 2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake, while ocean pCO 2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake. Aside from the western sub-polar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO 2 trends is found when the simulated fields are sub sampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO 2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO 2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970-2011) period, the simulated regional pCO 2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO 2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO 2 growth rates are projected for the sub-polar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO 2 growth rate. Our work

  12. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry F. Tjiputra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

  13. Propensity-Weighted Comparison of Long-Term Risk of Urinary Adverse Events in Elderly Women Treated For Cervical Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, Sean P.; Fan, Yunhua; Jarosek, Stephanie; Chu, Haitao; Downs, Levi; Dusenbery, Kathryn; Geller, Melissa A.; Virnig, Beth A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Cervical cancer treatment is associated with a risk of urinary adverse events (UAEs) such as ureteral stricture and vesicovaginal fistula. We sought to measure the long-term UAE risk after surgery and radiation therapy (RT), with confounding controlled through propensity-weighted models. Methods and Materials: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, we identified women ≥66 years old with nonmetastatic cervical cancer treated with simple surgery (SS), radical hysterectomy (RH), external beam RT plus brachytherapy (EBRT+BT), or RT+surgery. We matched them to noncancer controls 1:3. Differences in demographic and cancer characteristics were balanced by propensity weighting. Grade 3 to 4 UAEs were identified by diagnosis codes plus treatment codes. Cumulative incidence was measured using Kaplan-Meier methods. The hazard associated with different cancer treatments was compared using Cox models. Results: UAEs occurred in 272 of 1808 cases (17%) and 222 of 5424 (4%) controls; most (62%) were ureteral strictures. The raw cumulative incidence of UAEs was highest in advanced cancers. UAEs occurred in 31% of patients after EBRT+BT, 25% of patients after RT+surgery, and 15% of patients after RH; however, after propensity weighting, the incidence was similar. In adjusted Cox models (reference = controls), the UAE risk was highest after RT+surgery (hazard ratio [HR], 5.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.32-11.07), followed by EBRT+BT (HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.45-7.65), RH (HR, 3.65; 95% CI, 1.41-9.46) and SS (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.32-3.01). The higher risk after RT+surgery versus EBRT+BT was statistically significant, whereas, EBRT+BT and RH were not significantly different from each other. Conclusions: UAEs are common after cervical cancer treatment, particularly in patients with advanced cancers. UAEs are more common after RT, but these women tend to have the advanced cancers. After propensity weighting, the risk after RT was similar

  14. Risks of nuclear waste disposal in space. III - Long-term orbital evolution of small particle distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, A. L.; Wells, W. C.

    1980-01-01

    A study of long term risks is presented that treats an additional pathway that could result in earth reentry, namely, small radioactive particles released in solar orbit due to payload fragmentation by accidental explosion or meteoroid impact. A characterization of such an event and of the initial mass size distribution of particles is given for two extremes of waste form strength. Attention is given to numerical results showing the mass-time distribution of material and the fraction of initial mass intercepted by earth. It is concluded that it appears that program planners need not be to concerned about the risks of this particular failure mechanism and return pathway.

  15. Clinical epidemiology of long-term suicide risk in a nationwide population-based cohort study in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyewon; Myung, Woojae; Lee, Chunsoo; Choi, Junbae; Kim, Ho; Carroll, Bernard J; Kim, Doh Kwan

    2018-05-01

    We investigated the effects of a large range of clinical factors on the long-term risk of suicide in the general population of South Korea. We analyzed the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC) database in South Korea. A total of 300,232 individuals were followed for up to 12 years. We obtained information on demographic variables (age and sex), lifestyle variables (cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking and exercise), psychiatric and physical disorders, laboratory examination results and physical examination findings. We conducted a competing risk survival analysis to estimate the risk of completed suicide. 725 individuals (241/100,000) died by suicide in the follow-up period. After Bonferroni correction, we found a significant suicide risk associated with 6 variables: Parkinson's disease, depressive disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder (inverted association), elevated serum aspartate aminotransferase levels, male gender and age. Before Bonferroni correction, variables such as cigarette smoking, heavy alcohol drinking, psychotic disorder, other psychiatric disorder, benzodiazepine use and higher fasting glucose showed some significant association. In addition, body mass index and height were inversely related to completed suicide before Bonferroni correction. However, only the 6 variables listed above were robust predictors of suicide in the fully adjusted analyses with multiple test correction. Common medical conditions had no clear influence on suicide. Diverse clinical factors influenced the long-term risk of completed suicide in this general population sample. Comprehensive assessment of these risk factors will facilitate more focused suicide surveillance measures. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Office white-coat effect tail and long-term cardiovascular risks in the Gubbio residential cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humbert, Xavier; Fedrizzi, Sophie; Alexandre, Joachim; Menotti, Alessandro; Manrique, Alain; Touzé, Emmanuel; Puddu, Paolo E

    2018-05-24

    The aim was to investigate whether office white-coat effect tail (OWCET), the waning of blood pressure (BP) after its waxing during office visit, predicted long-term major fatal and nonfatal events in the Gubbio residential cohort. There were 3572 persons (44% men, 54 ± 11 years old) included. OWCET was defined as a decrease of 10 mmHg or more in SBP between the third and first measurement out of a series obtained a few min apart in which the second and third were considered actual baseline SBP at enrollment. Cardiovascular (CVD), including strokes and coronary heart disease (CHD) hard criteria incidences and deaths along with all-cause deaths were considered. Over 185 months median follow-up, individuals with OWCET had significantly higher risk factors except for smoking, which was less frequent. OWCET was associated with an increased risk of both CVD [HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.02-1.52)] and CHD [HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.01-1.80)] events independently of traditional risk factors (age, sex, total cholesterol, HDL, cigarettes and BMI) including SBP. When effective antihypertensive treatment was considered, there was a significant higher CVD risk in individuals with OWCET (P < 0.037). In uncontrolled or untreated individuals, those with OWCET also had a higher risk (P < 0.073). In primary care, OWCET should be searched for as it can improve stratification of long-term CVD-CHD risks.

  17. Island-Model Genomic Selection for Long-Term Genetic Improvement of Autogamous Crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yabe, Shiori; Yamasaki, Masanori; Ebana, Kaworu; Hayashi, Takeshi; Iwata, Hiroyoshi

    2016-01-01

    selection in autogamous crops, especially bringing long-term improvement.

  18. Island-Model Genomic Selection for Long-Term Genetic Improvement of Autogamous Crops.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiori Yabe

    potential of genomic selection in autogamous crops, especially bringing long-term improvement.

  19. Long-term occlusal changes assessed by the American Board of Orthodontics' model grading system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aszkler, Robert M; Preston, Charles B; Saltaji, Humam; Tabbaa, Sawsan

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the long-term posttreatment changes in all criteria of the American Board of Orthodontics' (ABO) model grading system. We used plaster models from patients' final and posttreatment records. Thirty patients treated by 1 orthodontist using 1 bracket prescription were selected. An initial discrepancy index for each subject was performed to determine the complexity of each case. The final models were then graded using the ABO's model grading system immediately at posttreatment and postretention. Statistical analysis was performed on the 8 criteria of the model grading system, including paired t tests and Pearson correlations. An alpha of 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The average length of time between the posttreatment and postretention records was 12.7 ± 4.4 years. It was shown that alignment and rotations worsened by postretention (P = 0.014), and a weak statistically significant correlation at posttreatment and postretention was found (0.44; P = 0.016). Both marginal ridges and occlusal contacts scored less well at posttreatment. These criteria showed a significant decrease in scores between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), but the correlations were not statistically significant. The average total score showed a significant decrease between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), partly because of the large decrease in the previous 2 criteria. Higher scores for occlusal contacts and marginal ridges were found at the end of treatment; however, those scores and the overall scores for the 30 subjects improved in the postretention phase. Copyright © 2014. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  20. Current Understanding and Remaining Challenges in Modeling Long-Term Degradation of Borosilicate Nuclear Waste Glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vienna, John D.; Ryan, Joseph V.; Gin, Stephane; Inagaki, Yaohiro

    2013-01-01

    Chemical durability is not a single material property that can be uniquely measured. Instead it is the response to a host of coupled material and environmental processes whose rates are estimated by a combination of theory, experiment, and modeling. High-level nuclear waste (HLW) glass is perhaps the most studied of any material yet there remain significant technical gaps regarding their chemical durability. The phenomena affecting the long-term performance of HLW glasses in their disposal environment include surface reactions, transport properties to and from the reacting glass surface, and ion exchange between the solid glass and the surrounding solution and alteration products. The rates of these processes are strongly influenced and are coupled through the solution chemistry, which is in turn influenced by the reacting glass and also by reaction with the near-field materials and precipitation of alteration products. Therefore, those processes must be understood sufficiently well to estimate or bound the performance of HLW glass in its disposal environment over geologic time-scales. This article summarizes the current state of understanding of surface reactions, transport properties, and ion exchange along with the near-field materials and alteration products influences on solution chemistry and glass reaction rates. Also summarized are the remaining technical gaps along with recommended approaches to fill those technical gaps

  1. Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

    2017-04-01

    Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

  2. Short- and Long-Term Stroke Risk after Urgent Management of Transient Ischaemic Attack: The Bologna TIA Clinical Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarino, Maria; Rondelli, Francesca; Favaretto, Elisabetta; Stracciari, Andrea; Filippini, Massimo; Rinaldi, Rita; Zele, Ivana; Sartori, Michelangelo; Faggioli, Gianluca; Mondini, Susanna; Donti, Andrea; Strocchi, Enrico; Degli Esposti, Daniela; Muscari, Antonio; Veronesi, Maddalena; D'Addato, Sergio; Spinardi, Luca; Faccioli, Luca; Pastore Trossello, Marco; Cirignotta, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    Rapid management can reduce the short stroke risk after transient ischaemic attack (TIA), but the long-term effect is still little known. We evaluated 3-year vascular outcomes in patients with TIA after urgent care. We prospectively enrolled all consecutive patients with TIA diagnosed by a vascular neurologist and referred to our emergency department (ED). Expedited assessment and best secondary prevention was within 24 h. Endpoints were stroke within 90 days, and stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death at 12, 24 and 36 months. Between August 2010 and July 2013, we evaluated 686 patients with suspected TIA; 433 (63%) patients had confirmed TIA. Stroke at 90 days was 2.07% (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-3.9) compared with the ABCD2-predicted risk of 9.1%. The long-term stroke risk was 2.6% (95% CI, 1.1-4.2), 3.7% (95% CI, 1.6-5.9) and 4.4% (95% CI, 1.9-6.8) at 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively. The composite outcome of stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death was 3.5% (95% CI, 1.7-5.1), 4.9% (95% CI, 2.5-7.4), and 5.6% (95% CI, 2.8-8.3) at 12, 24, and 36 months, respectively. TIA expedited management driven by vascular neurologists was associated with a marked reduction in the expected early stroke risk and low long-term risk of stroke and other vascular events. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  3. Modeling coupled thermal, flow, transport and geochemical processes controlling near field long-term evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, W.; Arthur, R.; Xu, T.; Pruess, K.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Bentonite is planned for use as a buffer material in the Swedish nuclear waste disposal concept (KBS-3). Upon emplacement, the buffer is expected to experience a complex set of coupled processes involving heating, re-saturation, reaction and transport of groundwater imbibed from the host rock. The effect of these processes may eventually lead to changes in desirable physical and rheological properties of the buffer, but these processes are not well understood. In this paper, a new quantitative model is evaluated to help improve our understanding of the long-term performance of buffer materials. This is an extension of a previous study [1] that involved simple thermal and chemical models applied to a fully saturated buffer. The thermal model in the present study uses heating histories for spent fuel in a single waste package [2]. The model uses repository dimensions, such as borehole and tunnel spacings [2], which affect the temperature distribution around the waste package. At the time of emplacement, bentonite is partially saturated with water having a different composition than the host-rock groundwater. The present model simulates water imbibition from the host rock into the bentonite under capillary and hydraulic pressure gradients. The associated chemical reactions and solute transport are simulated using Aespoe water composition [3]. The initial mineralogy of bentonite is assumed to be dominated by Na-smectite with much smaller amounts of anhydrite and calcite. Na-smectite dissolution is assumed to be kinetically-controlled while all other reactions are assumed to be at equilibrium controlled. All equilibrium and kinetic constants are temperature dependent. The modeling tool used is TOUGHREACT, developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [4]. TOUGHREACT is a numerical model that is well suited for near-field simulations because it accounts for feedback between porosity and permeability changes from mineral

  4. Risk-adapted, long-term management in childhood-onset craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Hermann L

    2017-04-01

    This report is a review of findings on the diagnosis, treatment, clinical course, follow-up, and prognosis of craniopharyngioma patients with special regard to clinical trials and long-term management. Literature search on Pubmed for paper published after 1994. Craniopharyngiomas are rare, embryonic malformations of the sellar/parasellar region with low histological grade. Clinical manifestations are related to increased intracranial pressure, visual impairment, and hypothalamic/pituitary deficiencies. If the tumor is favorably localized, therapy of choice is complete resection, with care taken to preserve hypothalamic and optic functions. In patients with unfavorable tumor location (i.e. involvement of hypothalamic areas), recommended therapy is limited hypothalamus-sparing surgical strategy followed by irradiation. Irradiation has proven effective in treatment of recurrences and progression. Surgical lesions and/or anatomical involvement of posterior hypothalamic areas can result in serious sequelae, mainly hypothalamic syndrome. It is crucial that craniopharyngioma be managed as a frequently chronic disease, providing ongoing care of pediatric and adult patients' by experienced multidisciplinary teams in the context of multicenter trials.

  5. Development of prediction models of stress and long-term disability among claimants to injury compensation systems: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spittal, Matthew J; Grant, Genevieve; O'Donnell, Meaghan; McFarlane, Alexander C; Studdert, David M

    2018-04-28

    We sought to develop prognostic risk scores for compensation-related stress and long-term disability using markers collected within 3 months of a serious injury. Cohort study. Predictors were collected at baseline and at 3 months postinjury. Outcome data were collected at 72 months postinjury. Hospitalised patients with serious injuries recruited from four major trauma hospitals in Australia. 332 participants who made claims for compensation for their injuries to a transport accident scheme or a workers' compensation scheme. 12-item WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and 6 items from the Claims Experience Survey. Our model for long-term disability had four predictors (unemployed at the time of injury, history of a psychiatric disorder at time of injury, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity at 3 months and disability at 3 months). This model had good discrimination (R 2 =0.37) and calibration. The disability risk score had a score range of 0-180, and at a threshold of 80 had sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 86%. Our model for compensation-related stress had five predictors (intensive care unit admission, discharged to home, number of traumatic events prior to injury, depression at 3 months and not working at 3 months). This model also had good discrimination (area under the curve=0.83) and calibration. The compensation-related stress risk score had score range of 0-220 and at a threshold of 100 had sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 75%. By combining these two scoring systems, we were able to identify the subgroup of claimants at highest risk of experiencing both outcomes. The ability to identify at an early stage claimants at high risk of compensation-related stress and poor recovery is potentially valuable for claimants and the compensation agencies that serve them. The scoring systems we developed could be incorporated into the claims-handling processes to guide prevention-oriented interventions. © Article author(s) (or their employer

  6. Modeling Cd and Cu mobility in soils amended by long-term urban waste compost applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipović, Vilim; Cambier, Philippe; Matijević, Lana; Coquet, Yves; Pot, Valérie; Houot, Sabine; Benoit, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Urban waste compost application to soil is an effective way for organic waste disposal and at the same time may have a positive effect on various soil rhizosphere processes. However, long term applications of organic waste amendments may lead to a noteworthy accumulation of micropollutants in soil. The long-term field experiment QualiAgro, an INRA-Veolia partnership (https://www6.inra.fr/qualiagro_eng/), has been conducted since 1998 with the objectives to characterize the agronomic value of urban composts and the environmental impacts of their application. Numerical modeling was performed using HYDRUS-2D to estimate the movement of Cd and Cu from compost incroporation in the tilled layer. Experimental plots regularly amended with co-compost of sewage sludge and green wastes (SGW), or a municipal solid waste compost (MSW) have been compared to control plot without any organic amendment (CONT). Field site was equipped with wicks lysimeters, TDR probes and tensiometers in order to determine water balance and trace metal concentrations during a 6 years' time period (2004-2010). In the tilled layer different structures (Δ - compacted clods, Γ - macroporous zone, IF - interfurrows, PP - plough pan) corresponding to the tillage and compost incorporation were delimited and reproduced in a 2-D model. The increase of Cd and Cu concentrations due to each compost addition was assumed to be located in IFs for further modeling. Four compost additions were performed during 2004-2010 period which increased the Cd and Cu concentrations in the IF zones considerably. After successful model description of water flow in highly heterogeneous soil profiles, Cd and Cu were added into the model and their fate was simulated during the same time period. Two approaches were followed to estimate plausible trace metals sorption coefficients (Kd), both while assuming equilibrium between dissolved and EDTA-extractable metals. The first approach was based on Kd estimated from ratios between

  7. ASSOCIATION OF OPERATING RISK OF LONG-TERM OBLIGATIONS OF MUNICIPALITIY OF SOPOT WITH EUROPEAN UNION BUDGET PROSPECTS FOR 2007-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Jastrzębski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Polish accession to the European Union allowed Polish municipalities to use co-financing of development projects of local infrastructure, environmental protection and improvement of competitiveness of municipalities. The process of transition is sometimes referred to as bridging the development gaps between countries of "old fifteen" and the new member countries. The desire of municipalities to maximize the use of EU funds led to a rapid increase in the debt level of municipalities and changes in levels of risk of long-term liabilities of municipalities. The aim of this article is to empirically confirm thesis that the change in the long-term financial liabilities associated with the prospect of the European Union budget for 2007-2013 is causing a variation of the operating risks of these liabilities. A tool used to verify this hypothesis is the risk model, which is a random vector with components identified with control variables of management process in the handling of long-term financial liabilities. The design of the components of this vector is based on the basic characteristics of the probability distribution of the vector as the ex-pected value and the variance and their ideal and anti-ideal levels.

  8. Remote Lower White Matter Integrity Increases the Risk of Long-Term Cognitive Impairment After Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaapsmeerders, Pauline; Tuladhar, Anil M; Arntz, Renate M; Franssen, Sieske; Maaijwee, Noortje A M; Rutten-Jacobs, Loes C A; Schoonderwaldt, Hennie C; Dorresteijn, Lucille D A; van Dijk, Ewoud J; Kessels, Roy P C; de Leeuw, Frank-Erik

    2016-10-01

    Poststroke cognitive impairment occurs frequently in young patients with ischemic stroke (18 through 50 years of age). Accumulating data suggest that stroke is associated with lower white matter integrity remote from the stroke impact area, which might explain why some patients have good long-term cognitive outcome and others do not. Given the life expectancy of decades in young patients, we therefore investigated remote white matter in relation to long-term cognitive function. We included all consecutive first-ever ischemic stroke patients, left/right hemisphere, without recurrent stroke or transient ischemic attack during follow-up, aged 18 through 50 years, admitted to our university medical center between 1980 and 2010. One hundred seventeen patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging scanning including a T1-weighted scan, a diffusion tensor imaging scan, and completed a neuropsychological assessment. Patients were compared with a matched stroke-free control group (age, sex, and education matched). Cognitive impairment was defined as >1.5 SD below the mean cognitive index score of controls and no cognitive impairment as ≤1 SD. Tract-Based Spatial Statistics was used to assess the white matter integrity (fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity). About 11 years after ischemic stroke, lower remote white matter integrity was associated with a worse long-term cognitive performance. A lower remote white matter integrity, even in the contralesional hemisphere, was observed in cognitively impaired patients (n=25) compared with cognitively unimpaired patients (n=71). These findings indicate that although stroke has an acute onset, it might have long lasting effects on remote white matter integrity and thereby increases the risk of long-term cognitive impairment. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. Long-term fate of depleted uranium at Aberdeen and Yuma Proving Grounds: Human health and ecological risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Beckman, R.J.; Myers, O.B.; Kennedy, P.L.; Clements, W.; Bestgen, H.T.

    1996-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate and long-term consequences of depleted uranium (DU) in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) and Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) for the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) of the US Army. Specifically, we examined the potential for adverse radiological and toxicological effects to humans and ecosystems caused by exposure to DU at both installations. We developed contaminant transport models of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems at APG and terrestrial ecosystems at YPG to assess potential adverse effects from DU exposure. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the initial models showed the portions of the models that most influenced predicted DU concentrations, and the results of the sensitivity analyses were fundamental tools in designing field sampling campaigns at both installations. Results of uranium (U) isotope analyses of field samples provided data to evaluate the source of U in the environment and the toxicological and radiological doses to different ecosystem components and to humans. Probabilistic doses were estimated from the field data, and DU was identified in several components of the food chain at APG and YPG. Dose estimates from APG data indicated that U or DU uptake was insufficient to cause adverse toxicological or radiological effects. Dose estimates from YPG data indicated that U or DU uptake is insufficient to cause radiological effects in ecosystem components or in humans, but toxicological effects in small mammals (e.g., kangaroo rats and pocket mice) may occur from U or DU ingestion. The results of this study were used to modify environmental radiation monitoring plans at APG and YPG to ensure collection of adequate data for ongoing ecological and human health risk assessments

  10. Long-term fate of depleted uranium at Aberdeen and Yuma Proving Grounds: Human health and ecological risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Beckman, R.J.; Myers, O.B. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Kennedy, P.L.; Clements, W.; Bestgen, H.T. [Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Fishery and Wildlife Biology

    1996-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate and long-term consequences of depleted uranium (DU) in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) and Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) for the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) of the US Army. Specifically, we examined the potential for adverse radiological and toxicological effects to humans and ecosystems caused by exposure to DU at both installations. We developed contaminant transport models of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems at APG and terrestrial ecosystems at YPG to assess potential adverse effects from DU exposure. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the initial models showed the portions of the models that most influenced predicted DU concentrations, and the results of the sensitivity analyses were fundamental tools in designing field sampling campaigns at both installations. Results of uranium (U) isotope analyses of field samples provided data to evaluate the source of U in the environment and the toxicological and radiological doses to different ecosystem components and to humans. Probabilistic doses were estimated from the field data, and DU was identified in several components of the food chain at APG and YPG. Dose estimates from APG data indicated that U or DU uptake was insufficient to cause adverse toxicological or radiological effects. Dose estimates from YPG data indicated that U or DU uptake is insufficient to cause radiological effects in ecosystem components or in humans, but toxicological effects in small mammals (e.g., kangaroo rats and pocket mice) may occur from U or DU ingestion. The results of this study were used to modify environmental radiation monitoring plans at APG and YPG to ensure collection of adequate data for ongoing ecological and human health risk assessments.

  11. Short and Long Term Behavioral and Pathological Changes in a Novel Rodent Model of Repetitive Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly M McAteer

    Full Text Available A history of concussion, particularly repeated injury, has been linked to an increased risk for the development of neurodegenerative diseases, particularly chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE. CTE is characterized by abnormal accumulation of hyperphosphorylated tau and deficits in learning and memory. As yet the mechanisms associated with the development of CTE are unknown. Accordingly, the aim of the current study was to develop and characterize a novel model of repetitive mTBI that accurately reproduces the key short and long-term functional and histopathological features seen clinically. Forty male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned to receive 0, 1 or 3x mTBI spaced five days apart using a modified version of the Marmarou impact-acceleration diffuse-TBI model to deliver 110G of linear force. Functional outcomes were assessed six and twelve weeks post-injury, with histopathology assessed twenty-four hours and twelve weeks post-injury. Repetitive mTBI resulted in mild spatial and recognition memory deficits as reflected by increased escape latency on the Barnes maze and decreased time spent in the novel arm of the Y maze. There was a trend towards increased anxiety-like behavior, with decreased time spent in the inner portion of the open field. At 24 hours and 12 weeks post injury, repetitive mTBI animals showed increased tau phosphorylation and microglial activation within the cortex. Increases in APP immunoreactivity were observed in repetitive mTBI animals at 12 weeks indicating long-term changes in axonal integrity. This novel model of repetitive mTBI with its persistent cognitive deficits, neuroinflammation, axonal injury and tau hyperphosphorylation, thus represents a clinically relevant experimental approach to further explore the underlying pathogenesis of CTE.

  12. REMI and ROUSE: Quantitative Models for Long-Term and Short-Term Priming in Perceptual Identification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J. Wagenmakers (Eric-Jan); R. Zeelenberg (René); D.E. Huber (David); J.G.W. Raaijmakers (Jeroen)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe REM model originally developed for recognition memory (Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997) has recently been extended to implicit memory phenomena observed during threshold identification of words. We discuss two REM models based on Bayesian principles: a model for long-term priming (REMI;

  13. Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

  14. The indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying: a mediation analysis using structural equation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi Janssens

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this longitudinal study the complex interplay between both job strain and bullying in relation to sickness absence was investigated. Following the “work environment hypothesis”, which establishes several work characteristics as antecedents of bullying, we assumed that job strain, conceptualized by the Job-Demand-Control model, has an indirect relation with long-term sickness absence through bullying. Methods The sample consisted of 2983 Belgian workers, aged 30 to 55 years, who participated in the Belstress III study. They completed a survey, including the Job Content Questionnaire and a bullying inventory, at baseline. Their sickness absence figures were registered during 1 year follow-up. Long-term sickness absence was defined as at least 15 consecutive days. A mediation analysis, using structural equation modeling, was performed to examine the indirect association of job strain through bullying with long-term sickness absence. The full structural model was adjusted for several possible confounders: age, gender, occupational group, educational level, company, smoking habits, alcohol use, body mass index, self-rated health, baseline long-term sickness absence and neuroticism. Results The results support the hypothesis: a significant indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying was observed, suggesting that bullying is an intermediate variable between job strain and long-term sickness absence. No evidence for the reversed pathway of an indirect association of bullying through job strain was found. Conclusions Bullying was observed as a mediating variable in the relation between job strain and sickness absence. The results suggest that exposure to job strain may create circumstances in which a worker risks to become a target of bullying. Our findings are generally in line with the work environment hypothesis, which emphasizes the importance of organizational work factors in the

  15. The indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying: a mediation analysis using structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Heidi; Braeckman, Lutgart; De Clercq, Bart; Casini, Annalisa; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kittel, France; Clays, Els

    2016-08-22

    In this longitudinal study the complex interplay between both job strain and bullying in relation to sickness absence was investigated. Following the "work environment hypothesis", which establishes several work characteristics as antecedents of bullying, we assumed that job strain, conceptualized by the Job-Demand-Control model, has an indirect relation with long-term sickness absence through bullying. The sample consisted of 2983 Belgian workers, aged 30 to 55 years, who participated in the Belstress III study. They completed a survey, including the Job Content Questionnaire and a bullying inventory, at baseline. Their sickness absence figures were registered during 1 year follow-up. Long-term sickness absence was defined as at least 15 consecutive days. A mediation analysis, using structural equation modeling, was performed to examine the indirect association of job strain through bullying with long-term sickness absence. The full structural model was adjusted for several possible confounders: age, gender, occupational group, educational level, company, smoking habits, alcohol use, body mass index, self-rated health, baseline long-term sickness absence and neuroticism. The results support the hypothesis: a significant indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying was observed, suggesting that bullying is an intermediate variable between job strain and long-term sickness absence. No evidence for the reversed pathway of an indirect association of bullying through job strain was found. Bullying was observed as a mediating variable in the relation between job strain and sickness absence. The results suggest that exposure to job strain may create circumstances in which a worker risks to become a target of bullying. Our findings are generally in line with the work environment hypothesis, which emphasizes the importance of organizational work factors in the origin of bullying. This study highlights that remodeling jobs to reduce

  16. Risk factors for violence among long-term psychiatric in-patients: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Previous research has linked aggressive behaviour to certain genetic conditions ... defects – such as impaired social information processing, socio-. Risk factors for ... The complex influence of diagnosis on psychiatric patients' risk of violence ...

  17. Long-term exposure to intranasal oxytocin in a mouse autism model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bales, K L; Solomon, M; Jacob, S; Crawley, J N; Silverman, J L; Larke, R H; Sahagun, E; Puhger, K R; Pride, M C; Mendoza, S P

    2014-11-11

    Oxytocin (OT) is a neuropeptide involved in mammalian social behavior. It is currently in clinical trials for the treatment of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Previous studies in healthy rodents (prairie voles and C57BL/6J mice) have shown that there may be detrimental effects of long-term intranasal administration, raising the questions about safety and efficacy. To investigate the effects of OT on the aspects of ASD phenotype, we conducted the first study of chronic intranasal OT in a well-validated mouse model of autism, the BTBR T+ Itpr3tf/J inbred strain (BTBR), which displays low sociability and high repetitive behaviors. BTBR and C57BL/6J (B6) mice (N=94) were administered 0.8  IU/kg of OT intranasally, daily for 30 days, starting on day 21. We ran a well-characterized set of behavioral tasks relevant to diagnostic and associated symptoms of autism, including juvenile reciprocal social interactions, three-chambered social approach, open-field exploratory activity, repetitive self-grooming and fear-conditioned learning and memory, some during and some post treatment. Intranasal OT did not improve autism-relevant behaviors in BTBR, except for female sniffing in the three-chambered social interaction test. Male saline-treated BTBR mice showed increased interest in a novel mouse, both in chamber time and sniffing time, whereas OT-treated male BTBR mice showed a preference for the novel mouse in sniffing time only. No deleterious effects of OT were detected in either B6 or BTBR mice, except possibly for the lack of a preference for the novel mouse's chamber in OT-treated male BTBR mice. These results highlight the complexity inherent in understanding the effects of OT on behavior. Future investigations of chronic intranasal OT should include a wider dose range and early developmental time points in both healthy rodents and ASD models to affirm the efficacy and safety of OT.

  18. The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David B Agus

    Full Text Available The usefulness of aspirin to defend against cardiovascular disease in both primary and secondary settings is well recognized by the medical profession. Multiple studies also have found that daily aspirin significantly reduces cancer incidence and mortality. Despite these proven health benefits, aspirin use remains low among populations targeted by cardiovascular prevention guidelines. This article seeks to determine the long-term economic and population-health impact of broader use of aspirin by older Americans at higher risk for cardiovascular disease.We employ the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation that follows Americans aged 50 and older, to project their lifetime health and spending under the status quo and in various scenarios of expanded aspirin use. The model is based primarily on data from the Health and Retirement Study, a large, representative, national survey that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Outcomes are chosen to provide a broad perspective of the individual and societal impacts of the interventions and include: heart disease, stroke, cancer, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and medical costs. Eligibility for increased aspirin use in simulations is based on the 2011-2012 questionnaire on preventive aspirin use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. These data reveal a large unmet need for daily aspirin, with over 40% of men and 10% of women aged 50 to 79 presenting high cardiovascular risk but not taking aspirin. We estimate that increased use by high-risk older Americans would improve national life expectancy at age 50 by 0.28 years (95% CI 0.08-0.50 and would add 900,000 people (95% CI 300,000-1,400,000 to the American population by 2036. After valuing the quality-adjusted life-years appropriately, Americans could expect $692 billion (95% CI 345-975 in net health benefits over that period.Expanded use of aspirin by older Americans with

  19. The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agus, David B; Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P; Messali, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    The usefulness of aspirin to defend against cardiovascular disease in both primary and secondary settings is well recognized by the medical profession. Multiple studies also have found that daily aspirin significantly reduces cancer incidence and mortality. Despite these proven health benefits, aspirin use remains low among populations targeted by cardiovascular prevention guidelines. This article seeks to determine the long-term economic and population-health impact of broader use of aspirin by older Americans at higher risk for cardiovascular disease. We employ the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation that follows Americans aged 50 and older, to project their lifetime health and spending under the status quo and in various scenarios of expanded aspirin use. The model is based primarily on data from the Health and Retirement Study, a large, representative, national survey that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Outcomes are chosen to provide a broad perspective of the individual and societal impacts of the interventions and include: heart disease, stroke, cancer, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and medical costs. Eligibility for increased aspirin use in simulations is based on the 2011-2012 questionnaire on preventive aspirin use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. These data reveal a large unmet need for daily aspirin, with over 40% of men and 10% of women aged 50 to 79 presenting high cardiovascular risk but not taking aspirin. We estimate that increased use by high-risk older Americans would improve national life expectancy at age 50 by 0.28 years (95% CI 0.08-0.50) and would add 900,000 people (95% CI 300,000-1,400,000) to the American population by 2036. After valuing the quality-adjusted life-years appropriately, Americans could expect $692 billion (95% CI 345-975) in net health benefits over that period. Expanded use of aspirin by older Americans with elevated risk

  20. Socio-demographic and work-related risk factors for medium- and long-term sickness absence among Italian workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Errico, Angelo; Costa, Giuseppe

    2012-10-01

    Few studies investigated determinants of sickness absence in representative samples of the general population, none of which in Italy. Aim of this study was to assess influence and relative importance of socio-demographic and work-related characteristics on medium- and long-term sickness absence in a random sample of Italian workers. Approximately 60,000 workers participating in a national survey in 2007 were interviewed regarding sickness absence during the whole previous week, and on socio-demographics, employment characteristics and exposure to a set of physical and psychosocial hazards in the workplace. The association between sickness absence and potential determinants was estimated by multivariable logistic regression models stratified by gender. From the final multivariate models, in both genders sickness absence was statistically significantly associated with tenure employment, working in larger firms, exposure to risk of injury and to bullying or discrimination and, among employees, with shift work. In males, sickness absence was also associated with lower education, employment in the public administration and with exposure to noise or vibration, whereas among women also with manual work and ergonomic factors. In both genders, the attributable fraction for employment-related characteristics was higher than that for socio-demographic ones. The association with tenure or salaried jobs, and with employment in larger firms or in the public sector suggests that, besides illness, job security is the most important determinant of sickness absence, consistently with the results of previous studies. However, our results indicate that a reduction in exposure to workplace hazards may contribute to reduce absenteeism.

  1. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  2. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  3. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-01

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

  4. Frequency, imaging findings, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of distal clavicular osteolysis in young patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedl, Johannes B.; Nevalainen, Mika; Gonzalez, Felix M.; Morrison, William B.; Zoga, Adam C.; Dodson, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Atraumatic distal clavicular osteolysis (DCO) has been described in adult male weightlifters. Our purpose was to investigate the frequency, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of DCO in young patients. Individuals with atraumatic DCO were identified in a retrospective review of 1,432 consecutive MRI shoulder reports in patients between 13 and 19 years of age. MRI findings of DCO, association with athletic activity, short-term clinical outcome after 3-6 months, and long-term clinical and MRI outcome after 2 years were analyzed. A pre-MRI questionnaire assessed the patients' athletic history including overhead activity and weightlifting. At a mean age of 15.9 years, 6.5 % (93/1432) of patients had atraumatic DCO, and 24 % were females. The combination of an overhead sport (basketball, volleyball, tennis, swimming) and supplemental weight training was a risk factor for DCO (odds ratio = 38, p = 0.01). Ninety-three percent of patients responded to conservative therapy. On follow-up imaging, 71 % of DCO patients had acromioclavicular (AC) joint osteoarthritis (vs. 35 % in controls, p = 0.006); 79 % had flattening of the distal clavicle and interval widening of the AC joint to a mean of 5.0 mm (compared to 2.4 mm in controls, p < 0.001). Severity of DCO edema was associated with pain (p < 0.02) at initial presentation and with AC joint osteoarthritis (p = 0.004) on follow-up. In athletic teenagers, the combination of weightlifting and overhead activity is a risk factor for atraumatic DCO, and females are affected in 24 %. Long-term sequelae include widening of the AC joint and AC joint osteoarthritis. (orig.)

  5. Frequency, imaging findings, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of distal clavicular osteolysis in young patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roedl, Johannes B.; Nevalainen, Mika; Gonzalez, Felix M.; Morrison, William B.; Zoga, Adam C. [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Thomas Jefferson University, Division of Musculoskeletal Imaging and Interventions, Department of Radiology, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Dodson, Christopher C. [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Rothman Institute, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Division of Sports Medicine, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Atraumatic distal clavicular osteolysis (DCO) has been described in adult male weightlifters. Our purpose was to investigate the frequency, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of DCO in young patients. Individuals with atraumatic DCO were identified in a retrospective review of 1,432 consecutive MRI shoulder reports in patients between 13 and 19 years of age. MRI findings of DCO, association with athletic activity, short-term clinical outcome after 3-6 months, and long-term clinical and MRI outcome after 2 years were analyzed. A pre-MRI questionnaire assessed the patients' athletic history including overhead activity and weightlifting. At a mean age of 15.9 years, 6.5 % (93/1432) of patients had atraumatic DCO, and 24 % were females. The combination of an overhead sport (basketball, volleyball, tennis, swimming) and supplemental weight training was a risk factor for DCO (odds ratio = 38, p = 0.01). Ninety-three percent of patients responded to conservative therapy. On follow-up imaging, 71 % of DCO patients had acromioclavicular (AC) joint osteoarthritis (vs. 35 % in controls, p = 0.006); 79 % had flattening of the distal clavicle and interval widening of the AC joint to a mean of 5.0 mm (compared to 2.4 mm in controls, p < 0.001). Severity of DCO edema was associated with pain (p < 0.02) at initial presentation and with AC joint osteoarthritis (p = 0.004) on follow-up. In athletic teenagers, the combination of weightlifting and overhead activity is a risk factor for atraumatic DCO, and females are affected in 24 %. Long-term sequelae include widening of the AC joint and AC joint osteoarthritis. (orig.)

  6. Development Of The Technique Of Assessment Of Banking Risks Of Long-Term Crediting Of Investments (On The Example Of Banks Of Sevastopol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulyana Viktorovna Dremova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The external destabilizing factor — financial crisis — has significantly influenced on the level increase of riskiness of the banking credit operations. Taking into account that the increased level of risk follows long-term credits, these operations has been influenced the most, that can be as one of the constraining conditions for the provision of bank long-term credit resources. It, in turn, causes the need to develop the risk assessment technique of long-term credits in regulation of banks’ long-term credit operations. As the risk assessment of credit operations in banking practice is generally limited to the calculation of credit risk, it is efficient to consider the scientifically reasonable approach to a risks assessment of long-term crediting including influence of private risks for the purpose of carrying out the generalized assessment of riskiness both separate types of long-term credits, and a long-term credit portfolio in general. The offered method is based on the calculation of aggregate risk coefficient of the long-term credits, calculated by means of mathematical method of principal component. In the work, it is offered to perform an assessment of private risks by means of statistics: the expectation value, mean square deviation, and the coefficient of a variation. The use of the principal components’ method at the risk assessment of longterm crediting meets such requirements as a lack of value judgment, accounting of specific features of private risks of long-term credits, mathematical validity. It gives the chance to apply the offered risk assessment method of long-term credits in banking. The conclusion is made that the application of an aggregative risk indicator of a long-term crediting will allow banks to trace more accurately the level of riskiness of a long-term credit portfolio and separate types of long-term credits that will strengthen the bank information and analytical base on risk regulation in the field and

  7. Risk-adjusted impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth for long-term investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, Montserrat; Jarner, Søren Fiig; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

    2014-01-01

    The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

  8. Improved method for P and T strategy selection by long-term risk evaluation of nuclear energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csom, G.; Feher, S.; Szieberth, M.

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents a detailed introduction of the presently used indicators of long-term risk, namely various concepts of radiotoxicity, analyses their advantages and disadvantages, and proposes further indicators called residual hazard and residual hazard index. In order to illustrate them, the time behavior of the relative radiotoxicity and the residual hazard index is investigated for a few representative cases. In the first one, conventional thermal and fast reactors, while in the second one molten salt reactors are investigated from the viewpoint of transmutation. The results shown indicate the usefulness of the application of the now proposed quantities. (author)

  9. Long-term exposure to air pollution and the risk of suicide death: A population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Jin-Young; Kim, Hye-Jin; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2018-07-01

    Suicide is a major public health problem. Previous studies have reported a significant association between acute exposure to air pollution and suicide; little attention has been paid to the long-term effects of air pollution on risk of suicide. We investigated whether long-term exposure to particulate matter of ≤10μm in diameter (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) would be associated with a greater risk of death by suicide. The study sample comprised 265,749 adults enrolled in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (2002-2013) in South Korea. Suicide death was defined as per ICD-10 code. Data on air pollution exposure used nationwide monitoring data, and individual exposure levels were assigned using geographic information systems. Air pollution exposure was categorized as the interquartile range (IQR) and quartiles. Hazards ratios (HRs) were calculated for the occurrence of suicide death after adjusting for potential covariates. During the study period, 564 (0.2%) subjects died from suicide. Increases in IQR pollutants (7.5μg/m 3 for PM 10 , 11.8ppb for NO 2 , and 0.8ppb for SO 2 ) significantly increased HR for suicide death [PM 10 : HR=3.09 (95% CI: 2.63-3.63); NO 2 : HR=1.33 (95% CI: 1.09-1.64); and SO 2 : HR=1.15 (95% CI: 1.07-1.24)]. Compared with the lowest level of air pollutants (Quartile 1), the risk of suicide significantly increased in the highest quartile level (Quartile 4) for PM 10 (HR=4.03; 95% CI: 2.97-5.47) and SO 2 (HR=1.65; 95% CI: 1.29-2.11) and in the third quartile for NO 2 (HR=1.52; 95% CI: 1.17-1.96). HRs for subjects with a physical or mental disorder were higher than that those for subjects without the disorder. Subjects living in metropolitan areas were more vulnerable to long-term PM 10 exposure than those living in non-metropolitan areas. Long-term exposure to air pollution was associated with a significantly increased risk of suicide death. People having underlying diseases or

  10. A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Tran-Duy (An); A. Boonen (Annelies); M.A.F.J. van de Laar (Mart); A. Franke (Andre); J.L. Severens (Hans)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractObjective: To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods: Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model

  11. A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tran-Duy, A.; Boonen, A.; Laar, M.A.F.J.; Franke, A.C.; Severens, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug

  12. From basalts to badlands : modelling long-term landscape response to lava damming of an upland catchment in western Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorp, van W.

    2014-01-01

    Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers (tectonics, climate, local base level) on long term catchment evolution. In this thesis, field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling are combined to

  13. Serum creatinine elevation after renin-angiotensin system blockade and long term cardiorenal risks: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Morten; Mansfield, Kathryn E; Bhaskaran, Krishnan; Nitsch, Dorothea; Sørensen, Henrik Toft; Smeeth, Liam; Tomlinson, Laurie A

    2017-03-09

    Objective  To examine long term cardiorenal outcomes associated with increased concentrations of creatinine after the start of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker treatment. Design  Population based cohort study using electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics. Setting  UK primary care, 1997-2014. Participants  Patients starting treatment with angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (n=122 363). Main outcome measures  Poisson regression was used to compare rates of end stage renal disease, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and death among patients with creatinine increases of 30% or more after starting treatment against those without such increases, and for each 10% increase in creatinine. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, calendar period, socioeconomic status, lifestyle factors, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular comorbidities, and use of other antihypertensive drugs and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Results  Among the 2078 (1.7%) patients with creatinine increases of 30% or more, a higher proportion were female, were elderly, had cardiorenal comorbidity, and used non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, loop diuretics, or potassium sparing diuretics. Creatinine increases of 30% or more were associated with an increased adjusted incidence rate ratio for all outcomes, compared with increases of less than 30%: 3.43 (95% confidence interval 2.40 to 4.91) for end stage renal disease, 1.46 (1.16 to 1.84) for myocardial infarction, 1.37 (1.14 to 1.65) for heart failure, and 1.84 (1.65 to 2.05) for death. The detailed categorisation of increases in creatinine concentrations (creatinine increases of less than 30% were also associated with increased incidence rate ratios for all outcomes, including death (1.15 (1.09 to 1.22) for increases of 10-19% and 1.35 (1.23 to 1.49) for increases of 20-29%, using creatinine

  14. Aging aggravates long-term renal ischemia-reperfusion injury in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xianlin; Fan, Min; He, Xiaozhou; Liu, Jipu; Qin, Jiandi; Ye, Jianan

    2014-03-01

    Ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI) has been considered as the major cause of acute kidney injury and can result in poor long-term graft function. Functional recovery after IRI is impaired in the elderly. In the present study, we aimed to compare kidney morphology, function, oxidative stress, inflammation, and development of renal fibrosis in young and aged rats after renal IRI. Rat models of warm renal IRI were established by clamping left pedicles for 45 min after right nephrectomy, then the clamp was removed, and kidneys were reperfused for up to 12 wk. Biochemical and histologic renal damage were assessed at 12 wk after reperfusion. The immunohistochemical staining of monocyte macrophage antigen-1 (ED-1) and transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGF-β1) and messenger RNA level of TGF-β1 in the kidney were analyzed. Renal IRI caused significant increases of malondialdehyde and 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine levels and a decrease of superoxide dismutase activity in young and aged IRI rats; however, these changes were more obvious in the aged rats. IRI resulted in severe inflammation and tubulointerstitial fibrosis with decreased creatinine (Cr) clearance and increased histologic damage in aged rats compared with young rats. Moreover, we measured the ratio of Cr clearance between young and aged IRI rats. It demonstrated that aged IRI rats did have poor Cr clearance compared with the young IRI rats. ED-1 and TGF-β1 expression levels in the kidney were significantly higher in aged rats than in young rats after IRI. Aged rats are more susceptible to IRI-induced renal failure, which may associate with the increased oxidative stress, increased histologic damage, and increased inflammation and tubulointerstitial fibrosis. Targeting oxidative stress and inflammatory response should improve the kidney recovery after IRI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Long-term fiscal implications of funding assisted reproduction: a generational accounting model for Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Matorras

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the lifetime economic benefits of assisted reproduction in Spain by calculating the return on this investment. We developed a generational accounting model that simulates the flow of taxes paid by the individual, minus direct government transfers received over the individual’s lifetime. The difference between discounted transfers and taxes minus the cost of either IVF or artificial insemination (AI equals the net fiscal contribution (NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction. We conducted sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our results under various macroeconomic scenarios. A child conceived through assisted reproduction would contribute €370,482 in net taxes to the Spanish Treasury and would receive €275,972 in transfers over their lifetime. Taking into account that only 75% of assisted reproduction pregnancies are successful, the NFC was estimated at €66,709 for IVF-conceived children and €67,253 for AI-conceived children. The return on investment for each euro invested was €15.98 for IVF and €18.53 for AI. The long-term NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction could range from €466,379 to €-9,529 (IVF and from €466,923 to €-8,985 (AI. The return on investment would vary between €-2.28 and €111.75 (IVF, and €-2.48 and €128.66 (AI for each euro invested. The break-even point at which the financial position would begin to favour the Spanish Treasury ranges between 29 and 41 years of age. Investment in assisted reproductive techniques may lead to positive discounted future fiscal revenue, notwithstanding its beneficial psychological effect for infertile couples in Spain.

  16. Stochastic long term modelling of a drainage system with estimation of return period uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    2009-01-01

    Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of...

  17. Sarcopenia increases risk of long-term mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangel, Erika L; Rios-Diaz, Arturo J; Uyeda, Jennifer W; Castillo-Angeles, Manuel; Cooper, Zara; Olufajo, Olubode A; Salim, Ali; Sodickson, Aaron D

    2017-12-01

    Frailty is associated with poor surgical outcomes in elderly patients but is difficult to measure in the emergency setting. Sarcopenia, or the loss of lean muscle mass, is a surrogate for frailty and can be measured using cross-sectional imaging. We sought to determine the impact of sarcopenia on 1-year mortality after emergency abdominal surgery in elderly patients. Sarcopenia was assessed in patients 70 years or older who underwent emergency abdominal surgery at a single hospital from 2006 to 2011. Average bilateral psoas muscle cross-sectional area at L3, normalized for height (Total Psoas Index [TPI]), was calculated using computed tomography. Sarcopenia was defined as TPI in the lowest sex-specific quartile. Primary outcome was mortality at 1 year. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and mortality at 30, 90, and 180 days. The association of sarcopenia with mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression and model performance judged using Harrell's C-statistic. Two hundred ninety-seven of 390 emergency abdominal surgery patients had preoperative imaging and height. The median age was 79 years, and 1-year mortality was 32%. Sarcopenic and nonsarcopenic patients were comparable in age, sex, race, comorbidities, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, procedure urgency and type, operative severity, and need for discharge to a nursing facility. Sarcopenic patients had lower body mass index, greater need for intensive care, and longer hospital length of stay (p Sarcopenia was independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality (risk ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-3.7) and mortality at 30 days (hazard ratio [HR], 3.7; 95% CI, 1.9-7.4), 90 days (HR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.8-6.0), 180 days (HR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.4-4.4), and 1 year (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-3.9). Sarcopenia is associated with increased risk of mortality over 1 year in elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Sarcopenia defined by TPI is

  18. Risk of Symptomatic Stroke After Radiation Therapy for Childhood Cancer: A Long-Term Follow-Up Cohort Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dijk, Irma W.E.M. van, E-mail: i.w.vandijk@amc.uva.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Pal, Helena J.H. van der [Department of Medical Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Os, Rob M. van [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Roos, Yvo B.W.E.M. [Department of Neurology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Sieswerda, Elske [Department of Medical Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Dalen, Elvira C. van; Ronckers, Cécile M. [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Oldenburger, Foppe [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Leeuwen, Flora E. van [Department of Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Caron, Huib N. [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Koning, Caro C.E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kremer, Leontien C.M. [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2016-11-01

    Purpose: Long-term childhood cancer survivors are at high risk of late adverse effects, including stroke. We aimed to determine the cumulative incidence of clinically validated symptomatic stroke (transient ischemic attack [TIA], cerebral infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage [ICH]) and to quantify dose-effect relationships for cranial radiation therapy (CRT) and supradiaphragmatic radiation therapy (SDRT). Methods and Materials: Our single-center study cohort included 1362 survivors of childhood cancer that were diagnosed between 1966 and 1996. Prescribed CRT and SDRT doses were converted into the equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions (EQD{sub 2}). Multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyze the relationship between the EQD{sub 2} and stroke. Results: After a median latency time of 24.9 years and at a median age of 31.2 years, 28 survivors had experienced a first stroke: TIA (n=5), infarction (n=13), and ICH (n=10). At an attained age of 45 years, the estimated cumulative incidences, with death as competing risk, among survivors treated with CRT only, SDRT only, both CRT and SDRT, and neither CRT nor SDRT were, respectively, 10.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5%-17.0%), 5.4% (95% CI, 0%-17.0%), 12.5% (95% CI, 5.5%-18.9%), and 0.1% (95% CI, 0%-0.4%). Radiation at both locations significantly increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratios: HR{sub CRT} 1.02 Gy{sup −1}; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03, and HR{sub SDRT} 1.04 Gy{sup −1}; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05). Conclusions: Childhood cancer survivors treated with CRT, SDRT, or both have a high stroke risk. One in 8 survivors treated at both locations will have experienced a symptomatic stroke at an attained age of 45 years. Further research on the pathophysiologic processes involved in stroke in this specific group of patients is needed to enable the development of tailored secondary prevention strategies.

  19. Risk of Symptomatic Stroke After Radiation Therapy for Childhood Cancer: A Long-Term Follow-Up Cohort Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dijk, Irma W.E.M. van; Pal, Helena J.H. van der; Os, Rob M. van; Roos, Yvo B.W.E.M.; Sieswerda, Elske; Dalen, Elvira C. van; Ronckers, Cécile M.; Oldenburger, Foppe; Leeuwen, Flora E. van; Caron, Huib N.; Koning, Caro C.E.; Kremer, Leontien C.M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Long-term childhood cancer survivors are at high risk of late adverse effects, including stroke. We aimed to determine the cumulative incidence of clinically validated symptomatic stroke (transient ischemic attack [TIA], cerebral infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage [ICH]) and to quantify dose-effect relationships for cranial radiation therapy (CRT) and supradiaphragmatic radiation therapy (SDRT). Methods and Materials: Our single-center study cohort included 1362 survivors of childhood cancer that were diagnosed between 1966 and 1996. Prescribed CRT and SDRT doses were converted into the equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions (EQD_2). Multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyze the relationship between the EQD_2 and stroke. Results: After a median latency time of 24.9 years and at a median age of 31.2 years, 28 survivors had experienced a first stroke: TIA (n=5), infarction (n=13), and ICH (n=10). At an attained age of 45 years, the estimated cumulative incidences, with death as competing risk, among survivors treated with CRT only, SDRT only, both CRT and SDRT, and neither CRT nor SDRT were, respectively, 10.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5%-17.0%), 5.4% (95% CI, 0%-17.0%), 12.5% (95% CI, 5.5%-18.9%), and 0.1% (95% CI, 0%-0.4%). Radiation at both locations significantly increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratios: HR_C_R_T 1.02 Gy"−"1; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03, and HR_S_D_R_T 1.04 Gy"−"1; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05). Conclusions: Childhood cancer survivors treated with CRT, SDRT, or both have a high stroke risk. One in 8 survivors treated at both locations will have experienced a symptomatic stroke at an attained age of 45 years. Further research on the pathophysiologic processes involved in stroke in this specific group of patients is needed to enable the development of tailored secondary prevention strategies.

  20. Birth weight and long-term overweight risk: systematic review and a meta-analysis including 643,902 persons from 66 studies and 26 countries globally.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Schellong

    Full Text Available Overweight is among the major challenging health risk factors. It has been claimed that birth weight, being a critical indicator of prenatal developmental conditions, is related to long-term overweight risk. In order to check this important assumption of developmental and preventive medicine, we performed a systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis.Relevant studies published up to January 2011 that investigated the relation between birth weight and later risk of overweight were identified through literature searches using MEDLINE and EMBASE. For meta-analysis, 66 studies from 26 countries and five continents were identified to be eligible, including 643,902 persons aged 1 to 75 years. We constructed random-effects and fixed-effects models, performed subgroup-analyses, influence-analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias, performed meta-regression analysis as well as analysis of confounder adjusted data. Meta-regression revealed a linear positive relationship between birth weight and later overweight risk (p4,000 g was associated with increased risk of overweight (OR=1.66; 95% CI 1.55-1.77. Results did not change significantly by using normal birth weight (2,500-4,000 g as reference category (OR=0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.84, and OR=1.60, 95% CI 1.45-1.77, respectively. Subgroup- and influence-analyses revealed no indication for bias/confounding. Adjusted estimates indicate a doubling of long-term overweight risk in high as compared to normal birth weight subjects (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.43-2.67.Findings demonstrate that low birth weight is followed by a decreased long-term risk of overweight, while high birth weight predisposes for later overweight. Preventing in-utero overnutrition, e.g., by avoiding maternal overnutrition, overweight and/or diabetes during pregnancy, might therefore be a promising strategy of genuine overweight prevention, globally.

  1. Model of the long-term transfer of radionuclides in forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, Rodolfo

    2006-05-01

    This report describes a model of the long-term behaviour in temperate and boreal forests of radionuclides entering the ecosystem with subsurface water. The model can be applied for most radionuclides that are of relevance in safety assessment of repositories for high-level radioactive waste. The model can be used for estimating radionuclide concentrations in soil, trees, understorey plants, mushrooms and forest mammals. A recommended (nominal) value and an interval of variation are provided for each model parameter and a classification of parameters by the degree of confidence in the values is given. Model testing against existing empirical data showing satisfactory results is also presented. Forests can play an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of radionuclides in the environment. Despite of this, forest ecosystems have not been addressed in previous safety assessments. This can be explained by the fact that a suitable model of the long-term transfer of a wide range of radionuclides in forests has not been readily available. The objective of this work was to develop a forest model applicable for a wide range of radionuclides of relevance for high level radioactive waste management (Am-241, Cl-36, Cs-135, I-129, Ni-59, Np-237, Pu-239, Ra-226, Sr-90, Tc-99, Th-232, U-238) that can potentially enter the ecosystem with contaminated groundwater. The model assumes that biomass growth, precipitation and evapo-transpiration drive the radionuclide cycling in the system by influencing the uptake of radionuclides by vegetation and their export from the system via runoff. The mathematical model of radionuclide transfer consists of a system of ordinary differential describing the mass balance in different forest compartments, taking into account the fluxes in and out from the compartment and the radionuclides decay. The fluxes between compartments are calculated by multiplying a transfer coefficient (TC) by the radionuclide inventory in the compartment

  2. Model of the long-term transfer of radionuclides in forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    This report describes a model of the long-term behaviour in temperate and boreal forests of radionuclides entering the ecosystem with subsurface water. The model can be applied for most radionuclides that are of relevance in safety assessment of repositories for high-level radioactive waste. The model can be used for estimating radionuclide concentrations in soil, trees, understorey plants, mushrooms and forest mammals. A recommended (nominal) value and an interval of variation are provided for each model parameter and a classification of parameters by the degree of confidence in the values is given. Model testing against existing empirical data showing satisfactory results is also presented. Forests can play an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of radionuclides in the environment. Despite of this, forest ecosystems have not been addressed in previous safety assessments. This can be explained by the fact that a suitable model of the long-term transfer of a wide range of radionuclides in forests has not been readily available. The objective of this work was to develop a forest model applicable for a wide range of radionuclides of relevance for high level radioactive waste management (Am-241, Cl-36, Cs-135, I-129, Ni-59, Np-237, Pu-239, Ra-226, Sr-90, Tc-99, Th-232, U-238) that can potentially enter the ecosystem with contaminated groundwater. The model assumes that biomass growth, precipitation and evapo-transpiration drive the radionuclide cycling in the system by influencing the uptake of radionuclides by vegetation and their export from the system via runoff. The mathematical model of radionuclide transfer consists of a system of ordinary differential describing the mass balance in different forest compartments, taking into account the fluxes in and out from the compartment and the radionuclides decay. The fluxes between compartments are calculated by multiplying a transfer coefficient (TC) by the radionuclide inventory in the compartment

  3. Long-Term Mentors' Perceptions of Building Mentoring Relationships with At-Risk Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Cindy Ann; Newman-Thomas, Cathy; Stormont, Melissa

    2015-01-01

    Youth mentoring, defined within this study, as the pairing of a youth at risk with a caring adult, is an intervention that is often used for youth at risk for academic and social failure. We sought to understand mentors' perspectives of the fundamental elements that foster positive mentor--mentee relationships that build resiliency and increase…

  4. Is digoxin an independent risk factor for long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Køber, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Gadsbøll, N

    1994-01-01

    age, LVEF, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, atrial fibrillation or flutter, ventricular fibrillation, gender, dose of furosemide at discharge and calcium antagonists and digoxin treatment as covariates, digoxin was independently associated with an increased risk of death (relative risk 1.8 (95...

  5. Long-Term Survival and Risk of Second Cancers After Radiotherapy for Cervical Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohno, Tatsuya; Kato, Shingo; Sato, Shinichiro; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro; Nakano, Takashi; Tsujii, Hirohiko; Arai, Tatsuo

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the risk of second cancers after cervical cancer treated with radiotherapy for Asian populations. Methods and Materials: We reviewed 2,167 patients with cervical cancer undergoing radiotherapy between 1961 and 1986. Intracavitary brachytherapy was performed with high-dose rate source (82%) or low-dose rate source (12%). Relative risk (RR), absolute excess risk (AR), and cumulative risk of second cancer were calculated using the Japanese disease expectancy table. For 1,031 patients, the impact of smoking habit on the increasing risk of second cancer was also evaluated. Results: The total number of person-years of follow-up was 25,771, with 60 patients being lost to follow-up. Among the 2,167 patients, 1,063 (49%) survived more than 10 years. Second cancers were observed in 210 patients, representing a significant 1.2-fold risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.4) of developing second cancer compared with the general population, 1.6% excess risk per person per decade of follow-up, and elevating cumulative risk up to 23.8% (95% CI, 20.3-27.3) at 30 years after radiotherapy. The RR of second cancer was 1.6-fold for patients with the smoking habit and 1.4-fold for those without. Conclusions: Small but significant increased risk of second cancer was observed among Japanese women with cervical cancer mainly treated with high-dose rate brachytherapy. Considering the fact that about half of the patients survived more than 10 years, the benefit of radiotherapy outweighs the risk of developing second cancer

  6. Metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk among institutionalized patients with schizophrenia receiving long term tertiary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seow, Lee Seng Esmond; Chong, Siow Ann; Wang, Peizhi; Shafie, Saleha; Ong, Hui Lin; Subramaniam, Mythily

    2017-04-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and cardiovascular risk are highly prevalent among individuals with schizophrenia. This study aimed to determine the cardiometabolic profile and the associated risk factors in a group of institutionalized patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder receiving prolonged hospital care in the only tertiary psychiatric institution in Singapore. Patients residing in long stay wards who were hospitalized for a minimum period of 1year were recruited. Fasting blood sample was collected to obtain levels of blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and triglycerides. Waist circumference, blood pressure, height and weight were also measured. The prevalence of MetS and the 10-year cardiovascular risk were determined. This inpatient group had a mean age of 56.1years and an average length of hospitalization of 8.8years. The prevalence of MetS in this group was 51.9% and 26.9% based on the AHA/NHLBI and modified NCEP ATP III criteria respectively. Those in the high risk BMI category and those who had pre-existing diabetes had higher odds of MetS. Their 10-year cardiovascular risk was estimated at 12.8%, indicating intermediate risk based on the Framingham risk function. Despite the low smoking rate in this group of inpatients, their cardiovascular risk appeared to be relatively high possibly due to old age and age-related conditions such as hypertension and low HDL. While literature has found the use of atypical antipsychotic medications to increase the risk of MetS, we did not find any significant association. Additionally, the duration of hospitalization did not affect the rate of MetS in our sample. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitworth, Julia [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lloyd, Jane Alexandria [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Majors, Harry W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-05-04

    This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.

  8. Modeling and Simulation of Long-Term Performance of Near-Surface Barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S. J.; Jacobson, J. J.; Martian, P.; Martineau, R.; Soto, R.

    2003-01-01

    INEEL started a new project on long-term barrier integrity in April 2002 that aims to catalyze a Barrier Improvement Cycle (iterative learning and application) and thus enable Remediation System Performance Management (doing the right maintenance neither too early nor too late, prior to system-level failure). This paper describes our computer simulation approach for better understanding the relationships and dynamics between the various components and management decisions in a cap. The simulation is designed to clarify the complex relationships between the various components within the cap system and the various management practices that affect the barrier performance. We have also conceptualized a time-dependent 3-D simulation with rigorous solution to unsaturated flow physics with complex surface boundary conditions

  9. Is a Long Term Work in Automotive Industry a Risk Factor for Renal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Annals of Medical and Health Sciences Research | Mar-Apr 2015 | Vol 5 | Issue 2 |. 103 ... Assadi: Long‑term work in the automotive industry and risk of renal dysfunction. 104 ..... and psychosocial approaches to global management of the.

  10. Delirium in cardiac surgery : A study on risk-assessment and long-term consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogen-Koster, S.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Delirium or acute confusion is a temporary mental disorder, which occurs frequently among hospitalized elderly patients. Patients who undergo cardiac surgery have an increased risk of developing delirium. Delirium is associated with many negative consequences. Therefore, prevention or

  11. Hospital-Diagnosed Pertussis Infection in Children and Long-term Risk of Epilepsy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Morten; Thygesen, Sandra K; Østergaard, John R

    2015-01-01

    , maternal history of epilepsy, presence of congenital malformations, and gestational age. Unique personal identifiers permitted unambiguous data linkage and complete follow-up for death, emigration, and hospital contacts. RESULTS: We identified 4700 patients with pertussis (48% male), of whom 90 developed......: In Denmark, risk of epilepsy was increased in children with hospital-diagnosed pertussis infections compared with the general population; however, the absolute risk was low....

  12. High-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in a Japanese allogeneic bone marrow transplant recipient on long-term voriconazole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, William; Takahashi, Akira; Muto, Yusuke; Yamazaki, Naoya

    2017-10-01

    Cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas arise as secondary cancers in hematopoietic stem cell transplant survivors. They have been documented primarily in Western cohorts and relatively little is known about their occurrence in Asian hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, with no reports of squamous cell carcinomas with high-risk features in Asian patients. We describe a case of a cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma with high-risk features on the scalp of a Japanese bone marrow transplant recipient approximately 6.5 years post-transplant, who was on long-term voriconazole. The history of a photodistributed erythema followed by the appearance of multiple actinic keratoses and solar lentigines, together with the rarity of cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas in Asian hematopoietic stem cell transplant cohorts revealed in our literature review, suggest that voriconazole use contributed to the development of high-risk squamous cell carcinoma in our patient. © 2017 Japanese Dermatological Association.

  13. Long-term effects of ovulation-stimulating drugs on cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinton, Louise

    2007-07-01

    Although nulliparity has been extensively related to the risk of ovarian, breast and endometrial cancers, with many studies showing the relationship largely attributable to infertility, treatment effects on cancer risk are poorly understood. Two early studies raised substantial concern when ovulation-stimulating drugs were linked with large increases in ovarian cancer, supporting the notion of an important aetiological role of incessant ovulation. Subsequent studies have been mainly reassuring, although some have suggested possible risk increases among nulligravid women, those with extensive follow-up, and those developing borderline tumours. Results regarding effects of fertility drugs on breast cancer risk are conflicting, with some showing no associations and others demonstrating possible risk increases, although for varying subgroups. In contrast, endometrial cancer results are more consistent, with two recent studies showing increased risks related to clomiphene usage. This is of interest given that clomiphene is structurally similar to tamoxifen, a drug extensively linked with this cancer. Given the recent marketing of fertility drugs and the fact that exposed women are only beginning to reach the cancer age range, further follow-up is necessary. This will also be important to fully resolve effects of exposures such as gonadotrophins, used more recently in conjunction with IVF.

  14. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  15. Long-term follow-up of children with high-risk neuroblastoma: the ENSG5 trial experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Lucas; Vaidya, Sucheta J; Pinkerton, C Ross; Lewis, Ian J; Imeson, John; Machin, David; Pearson, Andrew D J

    2013-07-01

    Therapy for high-risk neuroblastoma is intensive and multimodal, and significant long-term adverse effects have been described. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and severity of late complications of metastatic neuroblastoma survivors included in the ENSG5 clinical trial. The trial protocol included induction chemotherapy (randomized "Standard" OPEC/OJEC vs. "Rapid" COJEC), surgery of primary tumor and high-dose melphalan with stem cell rescue. Two hundred and sixty-two children were randomized, 69 survived >5 years, and 57 were analyzed. Data were obtained from the ENSG5 trial database and verified with questionnaires sent to participating centers. Median follow-up was 12.9 (6.9-16.5) years. No differences were found in late toxicities between treatment arms. Twenty-eight children (49.1%) developed hearing loss. Nine patients (15.8%) developed glomerular filtration rate <80 ml/min/1.73 m(2), but no cases of chronic renal failure were documented. Endocrine complications (28.1% of children) included mainly hypogonadism and delayed growth. Four children developed second malignancies, three of them 5 years after diagnosis: one osteosarcoma, one carcinoma of the parotid gland and one ependymoma. There were no hematological malignancies or deaths in remission. This study analyzed a wide cohort of high-risk neuroblastoma survivors from a multi-institutional randomized trial and established the profile of long-term toxicity within the setting of an international clinical trial. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Long-term modelling of nitrogen turnover and critical loads in a forested catchment using the INCA model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-J. Langusch

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Many forest ecosystems in Central Europe have reached the status of N saturation due to chronically high N deposition. In consequence, the NO3 leaching into ground- and surface waters is often substantial. Critical loads have been defined to abate the negative consequences of the NO3 leaching such as soil acidification and nutrient losses. The steady state mass balance method is normally used to calculate critical loads for N deposition in forest ecosystems. However, the steady state mass balance approach is limited because it does not take into account hydrology and the time until the steady state is reached. The aim of this study was to test the suitability of another approach: the dynamic model INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European Catchments. Long-term effects of changing N deposition and critical loads for N were simulated using INCA for the Lehstenbach spruce catchment (Fichtelgebirge, NE Bavaria, Germany under different hydrological conditions. Long-term scenarios of either increasing or decreasing N deposition indicated that, in this catchment, the response of nitrate concentrations in runoff to changing N deposition is buffered by a large groundwater reservoir. The critical load simulated by the INCA model with respect to a nitrate concentration of 0.4 mg N l–1 as threshold value in runoff was 9.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 compared to 10 kg ha–1yr–1 for the steady state model. Under conditions of lower precipitation (520 mm the resulting critical load was 7.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 , suggesting the necessity to account for different hydrological conditions when calculating critical loads. The INCA model seems to be suitable to calculate critical loads for N in forested catchments under varying hydrological conditions e.g. as a consequence of climate change. Keywords: forest ecosystem, N saturation, critical load, modelling, long-term scenario, nitrate leaching, critical loads reduction, INCA

  17. OBESITY-RELATED CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS AFTER LONG- TERM RESISTANCE TRAINING AND GINGER SUPPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sirvan Atashak

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Obesity and its metabolic consequences are major risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, lifestyle interventions, including exercise training and dietary components may decrease cardiovascular risk. Hence, this study was conducted to assess the effects of ginger supplementation and progressive resistance training on some cardiovascular risk factors in obese men. In a randomized double-blind design, 32 obese Iranian men (BMI > 30 were assigned in to one of four groups: Placebo (PL, n = 8; ginger group (GI, n = 8 that consumed 1 gr ginger/d for 10 wk; resistance training plus placebo (RTPL, n = 8; and 1gr ginger plus resistance exercise (RTGI, n = 8. Progressive resistance training was performed three days per week for 10 weeks and included eight exercises. At baseline and after 10 weeks, body composition and anthropometric indices were measured. To identify other risk factors, venous blood samples were obtained before and 48-72 hours after the last training session for measurement of blood lipids (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG, systemic inflammation (CRP, and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR. After 10 weeks both RTGI and RTPL groups showed significant decreases in waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, body fat percent, body fat mass, total cholesterol, and insulin resistance (p < 0.05 and a significant increase in fat free mass (FFM (p < 0.05, while it remained unchanged in PL and GI. Further, significant decreases in the mean values of CRP were observed in all groups except PL (p < 0.05. Our results reveal that resistance training is an effective therapeutic strategy to reduce cardiovascular risk in obese Iranian men. Further, ginger supplementation alone or in combination with resistance training, also reduces chronic inflammation. However more research on the efficacy of this supplement to reduce cardiovascular risk in humans is required.

  18. A Diffusion Model Analysis of Adult Age Differences in Episodic and Semantic Long-Term Memory Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaniol, Julia; Madden, David J.; Voss, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    Two experiments investigated adult age differences in episodic and semantic long-term memory tasks, as a test of the hypothesis of specific age-related decline in context memory. Older adults were slower and exhibited lower episodic accuracy than younger adults. Fits of the diffusion model (R. Ratcliff, 1978) revealed age-related increases in…

  19. Forest landscape models, a tool for understanding the effect of the large-scale and long-term landscape processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Robert E. Keane; Louis R. Iverson

    2008-01-01

    Forest landscape models have become important tools for understanding large-scale and long-term landscape (spatial) processes such as climate change, fire, windthrow, seed dispersal, insect outbreak, disease propagation, forest harvest, and fuel treatment, because controlled field experiments designed to study the effects of these processes are often not possible (...

  20. Developing a long-term global tourism transport model using a behavioural approach: implications for sustainable tourism policy making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, P.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary.

  1. Bifurcation analysis of a delay differential equation model associated with the induction of long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Lijie; Yang, Zhuoqin; Lei, Jinzhi

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A delay differentiation equation model for CREB regulation is developed. • Increasing the time delay can generate various bifurcations. • Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes. - Abstract: The ability to form long-term memories is an important function for the nervous system, and the formation process is dynamically regulated through various transcription factors, including CREB proteins. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a delay differential equation model for CREB protein activities, which involves two positive and two negative feedbacks in the regulatory network. We discuss the dynamical mechanisms underlying the induction of long-term memory, in which bistability is essential for the formation of long-term memory, while long time delay can destabilize the high level steady state to inhibit the long-term memory formation. The model displays rich dynamical response to stimuli, including monostability, bistability, and oscillations, and can transit between different states by varying the negative feedback strength. Introduction of a time delay to the model can generate various bifurcations such as Hopf bifurcation, fold limit cycle bifurcation, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation of cycles, and period-doubling bifurcation, etc. Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes: quasi-periodic route and period-doubling cascade.

  2. Model and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in water-flooding optimization.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, M.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2015-01-01

    Model-based optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase ultimate recovery or financial life-cycle performance. The Net Present Value (NPV) objective in such an optimization framework, because of its nature, focuses on the long-term gains while the short-term production is not

  3. Advances in the implementation of a generic long term model for the hydro industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welt, F.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation describes the Vista Long Term (LT) simulation and decision tool developed for the hydropower and water resource industries by Synexus Global. Vista maximizes the value of hydro resources while addressing environmental concerns. It improves water resource management for all uses over the long term. The tool has been used and adapted to many systems around the world, including Bonneville Power Administration, Reliant Energy, PacifiCorp and Great Lakes Power in the United States and Nova Scotia Power, Yukon Energy, and Newfoundland Hydro in Canada. Vista also helps to plan alternative operating policies and system upgrades by maximizing the expected value of generation and transactions. The tool provides reservoir releases, generation, flows, levels and transactions. Hydroelectric generating facilities that use the Vista tool have improved clean energy production as well as increased revenues resulting from reservoir and plant optimization. tabs., figs

  4. Enhanced long term microcircuit plasticity in the valproic acid animal model of autism

    OpenAIRE

    Guilherme T Silva; Guilherme T Silva; Jean-Vincent Le Bé; Imad Riachi; Tania Rinaldi; Kamila Markram; Henry Markram

    2009-01-01

    A single intra-peritoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA) on embryonic day (ED) 11.5 to pregnant rats has been shown to produce severe autistic-like symptoms in the offspring. Previous studies showed that the microcircuitry is hyperreactive due to hyperconnectivity of glutamatergic synapses and hyperplastic due to over-expression of NMDA receptors. These changes were restricted to the dimensions of a mini-column (<50μm). In the present study, we explored whether Long Term Microcircuit ...

  5. Results from the long-term interaction and modeling of SRL-131 glass with aqueous solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, D.M.; Pederson, L.R.; Lokken, R.O.

    1985-11-01

    Leaching studies of SRL-131 simulated defense nuclear waste glass have been carried out to two years duration, in leachants that simulate groundwaters of different ionic strengths. The leachability of SRL-131 glass followed the trend: deionized water > silicate water > salt brine = simulated groundwater at 40 0 C and deionized water = simulated groundwater > silicate water > salt brine at 90 0 C. The results are in general agreement with calculations using the PHREEQE geochemical code and indicate a sometimes complex sequence temperature dependent of mineral precipitation and redissolution. The calculations done in this study have illustrated the complexity of the precipitation sequence of mineral phases as a function of reaction progress. Complex, temperature dependent, precipitation/dissolution sequences have also been observed in experiments using natural materials, such as sea water and basaltic glass. The results of this two-year study point to the need for further work in establishing the thermodynamics of the observed phases and the relationship of these phases to the thermodynamically favored suite of phases for any given waste form/host rock/groundwater system. In order to study these phases, very long-term experiments may be necessary so that the phases grow to sizes which can be studied. In addition, geochemical codes should be used to better understand the experiments, to design leach test matrices, and to help predict the long-term results of experiments. The combination of long-term experiments and geochemical codes should lead to an improved method for forecasting the long-term behavior of a nuclear waste repository. 15 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs

  6. Is a Long Term Work in Automotive Industry a Risk Factor for Renal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Subjects and Methods: In a historical cohort study, workers of automotive industry who worked in production and had low exposure to metal fumes were selected and divided to three groups with 5–10, 11–20, and 21–30 years work duration. risk factors for renal diseases were collected and analyzed with SPSS using ...

  7. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

  8. Examining Long Term Climate Related Security Risks through the Use of Gaming and Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-24

    for example, the India player felt they had to achieve near-peer military parity with the China and Southwest Asia players before they would invest...the game scenario, we use gender neutral pronouns (e.g., they, their) throughout. 1. David King et al., Climate Change: A Risk Assessment, ed

  9. Long-Term Risk of Dementia among Survivors of Ischemic or Hemorrhagic Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corraini, Priscila; Henderson, Victor; Ording, Anne Gulbech

    2017-01-01

     303 survivors of unspecified stroke types. Patients were aged ≥18 years and survived for at least 3 months after diagnosis. We formed a comparison cohort from the general population (1 075 588 patients without stroke, matched to stroke patients by age and sex). We computed absolute risks and hazard...

  10. Cardiorespiratory fitness and future risk of pneumonia: a long-term prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunutsor, Setor K; Laukkanen, Tanjaniina; Laukkanen, Jari A

    2017-09-01

    We aimed to assess the prospective association of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) with the risk of pneumonia. Cardiorespiratory fitness, as measured by maximal oxygen uptake, was assessed using a respiratory gas exchange analyzer in 2244 middle-aged men in the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease cohort. We corrected for within-person variability in CRF levels using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart. During a median follow-up of 25.8 years, 369 men received a hospital diagnosis of pneumonia. The age-adjusted regression dilution ratio of CRF was 0.58 (95% confidence interval: 0.53-0.63). Cardiorespiratory fitness was linearly associated with pneumonia risk. The hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for pneumonia per 1 standard deviation increase in CRF in analysis adjusted for several risk factors for pneumonia was 0.77 (0.68-0.87). The association remained consistent on additional adjustment for total energy intake, socioeconomic status, physical activity, and C-reactive protein 0.82 (0.72-0.94). The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.58 (0.41-0.80) and 0.67 (0.48-0.95) respectively, when comparing the extreme quartiles of CRF levels. Our findings indicate a graded inverse and independent association between CRF and the future risk of pneumonia in a general male population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David. Rizzo

    2010-01-01

    It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

  12. Signal-averaged P wave duration and the long-term risk of permanent atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixen, Ulrik; Larsen, Mette Vang; Ravn, Lasse Steen

    2008-01-01

    of permanent AF. The risk of permanent AF after 3 years follow-up was 0.72 with an SAPWD equal to 180 ms versus 0.39 with a normal SAPWD (130 ms). We found no prognostic effect of age, gender, dilated left atrium, long duration of AF history, or long duration of the most recent episode of AF. Co...

  13. Gastric cancer risk in achlorhydric patients. A long-term follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Dahl, C; Svendsen, L B

    1986-01-01

    Achlorhydria, determined by the augmented histamine test, is the functional expression of the most severe atrophic gastritis and is followed by a 4- to 6-fold increased risk of gastric cancer, as we found 5 cancers in 114 patients after a mean observation period of 8.4 years. The cancers developed...

  14. Long-term survival in pre-specified groups at risk in the Oslo Study, 1972-1973.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Ingar

    2015-03-01

    Using the Oslo Study of 1972-1973, we wished to compare the long-term mortality pattern up to 40 years, in both the healthy cardiovascular groups at supposedly high and low risk, and in some groups having cardiovascular disease at screening. At the screening, 16,203 (63% of those invited) men aged 40-49 years participated. Study groups were identified by means of questionnaires regarding diseases, blood pressure and measurements of total cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose. We identified six groups: very high cholesterol, very high blood pressure, very high glucose, non-smoking with non-elevated such risk factors, from a randomized diet and antismoking trial, and a randomized drug treatment in mild-to-moderate hypertension. Statistical analyses were by Cox regression analysis, with Kaplan-Meier graphs. The supposedly low-risk group had a total mortality of one-third of other groups, such as: men with hypertension, diabetes or hypercholesterolemia, or those whom participated in the two trials. Between these latter groups, we found 2-5 years of difference in their median survival time, but their absolute risk stayed at rather high levels through all the years, with the median remaining a lifetime that was 3-8 years shorter than the men whom were free of known cardiovascular disease, diabetes or hypertension. The long-term preventive effects on total mortality seem large, if the levels of the classical risk factors of blood pressure, total cholesterol and glucose can be adequately controlled, concurrently with a non-smoking behavior. The study indicated that non-smoking and a low total cholesterol value were the most important contributors to extended survival. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  15. Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ardakani, F.J.; Ardehali, M.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined. • Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed. • Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%. - Abstract: Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030

  16. Depression with melancholic features is associated with higher long-term risk for dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões do Couto, Frederico; Lunet, Nuno; Ginó, Sandra; Chester, Catarina; Freitas, Vanda; Maruta, Carolina; Figueira, Maria Luísa; de Mendonça, Alexandre

    2016-09-15

    Depression has been reported to increase the risk of subsequently developing dementia, but the nature of this relation remains to be elucidated. Depression can be a prodrome/manifestation of dementia or an early risk factor, and the effect may differ according to depression subtypes. Our aim was to study the association between early-onset depression and different depression subtypes, and the later occurrence of dementia. We conducted a cohort study including 322 subjects with depression, recruited between 1977 and 1984. A comparison cohort (non-exposed) was recruited retrospectively, to include 322 subjects admitted at the same hospital for routine surgery (appendicectomy or cholecystectomy), at the same period as the depressed cohort. Subjects were contacted again between 2009 and 2014, to assess their dementia status. We computed the risk for dementia in subjects with early onset depression and quantified the association between different depression subtypes (namely melancholic, anxious, and psychotic) and dementia. The odds of dementia were increased by 2.90 times (95% C.I. 1.61-5.21; pdepressed cohort when compared to the surgical cohort. When the analysis was restricted to patients younger than 45 years old at baseline, the odds for dementia in the depressed cohort were also significantly higher when compared to the surgical cohort (8.53; 95% C.I. 2.40-30.16). In the multivariate Cox analysis, subjects having depression with melancholic features had an increased risk for developing dementia compared to those without melancholic features (HR=3.64; 95% C.I. 1.78-11.26; p=0.025). About 59% of the participants with depression and 53% of those non-exposed were lost during follow up. The inclusion of biological biomarkers would strengthen the results. The sample included a low number of bipolar patients. These results support depression as an early risk factor for dementia. Depression with melancholic features was found as an important risk factor for dementia

  17. Gastric cancer risk in achlorhydric patients. A long-term follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Dahl, C; Svendsen, L B

    1986-01-01

    Achlorhydria, determined by the augmented histamine test, is the functional expression of the most severe atrophic gastritis and is followed by a 4- to 6-fold increased risk of gastric cancer, as we found 5 cancers in 114 patients after a mean observation period of 8.4 years. The cancers developed...... from 1 to 17 years after achlorhydria diagnosis--three cases after more than 9 years. The study showed no difference in gastric cancer risk between patients with and without pernicious anaemia. Spontaneous achlorhydria is the late result of atrophic gastritis, which should be regarded the premalignant...... condition. The development of gastric cancer from pharmacologically reduced acid secretion must be regarded as highly hypothetical, since this is not followed by atrophic gastritis....

  18. Long-Term Lithium Use and Risk of Renal and Upper Urinary Tract Cancers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper; Jensen, Boye L

    2015-01-01

    Lithium induces proliferation in the epithelium of renal collecting ducts. A recent small-scale cohort study reported a strong association between use of lithium and increased risk of renal neoplasia. We therefore conducted a large-scale pharmacoepidemiologic study of the association between long...... stratified by stage and subtype of upper urinary tract cancer revealed slight but nonsignificant increases in the ORs for localized disease (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.8-3.0) and for renal pelvis/ureter cancers (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.5-5.4). In conclusion, in our nationwide case-control study, use of lithium......-term use of lithium and risk of upper urinary tract cancer, including renal cell cancer and cancers of the renal pelvis or ureter. We identified all histologically verified upper urinary tract cancer cases in Denmark between 2000 and 2012 from the Danish Cancer Registry. A total of 6477 cases were matched...

  19. Is a long term work in automotive industry a risk factor for renal dysfunction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assadi, Seyedeh Negar

    2015-01-01

    Disorders of renal system can cause renal failure; therefore screening is necessary especially in workers who are exposed to harmful materials. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hazardous exposures are non-occupational and occupational risk factors for renal diseases. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of working in automotive industry on renal function in Iran. In a historical cohort study, workers of automotive industry who worked in production and had low exposure to metal fumes were selected and divided to three groups with 5-10, 11-20, and 21-30 years work duration. risk factors for renal diseases were collected and analyzed with SPSS using one-way ANOVA, correlation coefficient and with P automotive Industry with low exposure to toxic metals and solvents has no significant effect on GFR, creatinine clearance, uric acid, and mean blood pressure.

  20. Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan for Flood Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    9.3.2. A mobile bed HEC - RAS model of the lower 20 miles of the Cowlitz River has been created using 2008 bathymetric data and bed gradation data...to regulated flows. Modeling Results An existing uncalibrated mobile-bed HEC - RAS model of the lower Cowlitz River was run for water years 2007 and...June 2010 C-39 Analysis Stage An existing steady state HEC - RAS model of the lower Cowlitz extending from the Columbia River to the confluence with

  1. Prediction of long-term absence due to sickness in employees: development and validation of a multifactorial risk score in two cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airaksinen, Jaakko; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Oksanen, Tuula; Koskenvuo, Markku; Pentti, Jaana; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

    2018-01-24

    Objectives This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. Methods Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. Results Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (<0.65). Conclusions Individuals' risk of a long-term sickness absence that lasts ≥90 days can be estimated using a brief risk score. The predictive performance of this score is comparable to those for established multifactorial risk algorithms for cardiovascular disease, such as the Framingham risk score.

  2. A risk-based monitoring framework for the long term management of used fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garisto, N.C.

    2006-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Management Organization has a mandate from the Government of Canada to consult with the public and to recommend an approach for managing Canada's used nuclear fuel. Three main fuel management methods are being explored and evaluated by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization: disposal in a Deep Geological Repository (DGR); reactor-site extended storage (RES); and centralized extended storage (CES), either above ground or below ground. The used nuclear fuel management system, whether a DGR or an extended storage system will require monitoring. In this study, a risk-based monitoring framework was developed for the used fuel management program. The proposed approach addresses the unique challenges of used fuel management being implemented in a multi-stakeholder process, including: (i) the complexity of the facilities; (ii) the need to consider both science-based risk and perceived risk in the monitoring plans; and (iii) the difficulty in conducting 'invasive' measurements of sealed systems, particularly over a very long time frame. (author)

  3. Risk factors for pancreatic stone formation in autoimmune pancreatitis over a long-term course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruyama, Masahiro; Arakura, Norikazu; Ozaki, Yayoi; Watanabe, Takayuki; Ito, Tetsuya; Yoneda, Suguru; Maruyama, Masafumi; Muraki, Takashi; Hamano, Hideaki; Matsumoto, Akihiro; Kawa, Shigeyuki

    2012-05-01

    Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) has the potential to progress to a chronic state that forms pancreatic stones. The aim of this study was to clarify the risk factors underlying pancreatic stone formation in AIP. Sixty-nine patients with AIP who had been followed for at least 3 years were enrolled for evaluation of clinical and laboratory factors as well as computed tomography and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography findings. During the course of this study, increased or de novo stone formation was seen in 28 patients, who were defined as the stone-forming group. No stones were observed in 32 patients, who were defined as the non-stone-forming group. Nine patients who had stones at diagnosis but showed no change during the course of this study were excluded from our cohort. Univariate analysis revealed no significant differences in clinical or laboratory factors associated with AIP-specific inflammation between the two groups. However, pancreatic head swelling (P = 0.006) and narrowing of both Wirsung's and Santorini's ducts in the pancreatic head region (P = 0.010) were significantly more frequent in the stone-forming group. Furthermore, multivariate analysis identified Wirsung and Santorini duct narrowing at diagnosis as a significant independent risk factor for pancreatic stone formation (OR 4.4, P = 0.019). A primary risk factor for pancreatic stone formation in AIP was narrowing of both Wirsung's and Santorini's ducts, which most presumably led to pancreatic juice stasis and stone development.

  4. Long-term prognosis of fatty liver: risk of chronic liver disease and death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam-Larsen, S.; Franzmann, M.; Andersen, I.B.

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver is a common histological finding in human liver biopsy specimens. It affects 10-24% of the general population and is believed to be a marker of risk of later chronic liver disease. The present study examined the risk of development of cirrhotic liver disease...... and the risk of death in a cohort diagnosed with pure fatty liver without inflammation. METHODS: A total of 215 patients who had a liver biopsy performed during the period 1976-1987 were included in the study. The population consisted of 109 non-alcoholic and 106 alcoholic fatty liver patients. Median follow...... up time was 16.7 (0.2-21.9) years in the non-alcoholic and 9.2 (0.6-23.1) years in the alcoholic group. Systematic data collection was carried out by review of all medical records. All members of the study cohort were linked through their unique personal identification number to the National Registry...

  5. Modeling the long-term durability of concrete barriers in the context of low-activity waste storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samson E.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the long-term durability of concrete barriers in contact with a cementitious wasteform designed to immobilize low-activity nuclear waste. The high-pH pore solution of the wasteform contains high concentration level of sulfate, nitrate, nitrite and alkalis. The multilayer concrete/wasteform system was modeled using a multiionic reactive transport model accounting for coupling between species, dissolution/ precipitation reactions, and feedback effect. One of the primary objectives was to investigate the risk associated with the presence of sulfate in the wasteform on the durability of concrete. Simulation results showed that formation of expansive phases, such as gypsum and ettringite, into the concrete barrier was not extensive. Based on those results, it was not possible to conclude that concrete would be severely damaged, even after 5,000 years. Lab work was performed to provide data to validate the modeling results. Paste samples were immersed in sulfate contact solutions and analyzed to measure the impact of the aggressive environment on the material. The results obtained so far tend to confirm the numerical simulations.

  6. Long-term glucocorticoid concentrations as a risk factor for childhood obesity and adverse body-fat distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noppe, G; van den Akker, E L T; de Rijke, Y B; Koper, J W; Jaddoe, V W; van Rossum, E F C

    2016-10-01

    Childhood obesity is an important risk factor for premature development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) at adulthood. There is need for understanding of the mechanisms underlying the MetS and obesity. Patients with Cushing's disease suffer from similar metabolic complications, leading to the hypothesis that inter-individual cortisol variation may contribute to the onset of obesity. In addition, glucocorticoid receptor (GR)-gene polymorphisms resulting in differential glucocorticoid (GC) sensitivity, have been associated with an adverse metabolic profile. To study associations of GC levels in scalp hair, as a marker of long-term systemic GC concentrations, and genetically determined GC sensitivity with obesity and body-fat distribution in children. We performed a cross-sectional study of cortisol and cortisone concentrations over a 3-month period, measured by LC-MS/MS (Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry) in hair of 3019 6-year-old children participating in the Generation R study. Genotyping of GR-gene polymorphisms was performed. Of all children, 4.3% was obese and 13.4% overweight. Cortisol was significantly associated with risk of obesity (odd ratio (OR): 9.4 (3.3-26.9)) and overweight (OR: 1.4 (1.0-2.0)). Cortisone was associated with risk of obesity (OR: 1.9 (1.0-3.5)). Cortisol and cortisone were significantly positively associated with body mass index, fat mass (FM) index and android/gynecoid FM ratio. GR polymorphisms were not associated with adiposity parameters. Long-term cortisol concentrations are strongly associated with an increased risk of childhood obesity and adverse body-fat distribution. Future research may reveal whether these are causal relations and may be a target for therapy.

  7. Long-Term Outcome and Toxicities of Intraoperative Radiotherapy for High-Risk Neuroblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillis, Amy M.; Sutton, Elizabeth; DeWitt, Kelly D.; Matthay, Katherine K.; Weinberg, Vivian; Fisch, Benjamin M.; Chan, Albert; Gooding, Charles; Daldrup-Link, Heike; Wara, William M.; Farmer, Diana L.; Harrison, Michael R.; Haas-Kogan, Daphne

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To review a historical cohort of consecutively accrued patients with high-risk neuroblastoma treated with intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) to determine the therapeutic effect and late complications of this treatment. Methods and Materials: Between 1986 and 2002, 31 patients with newly diagnosed high-risk neuroblastoma were treated with IORT as part of multimodality therapy. Their medical records were reviewed to determine the outcome and complications. Kaplan-Meier probability estimates of local control, progression-free survival, and overall survival at 36 months after diagnosis were recorded. Results: Intraoperative radiotherapy to the primary site and associated lymph nodes achieved excellent local control at a median follow-up of 44 months. The 3-year estimate of the local recurrence rate was 15%, less than that of most previously published series. Only 1 of 22 patients who had undergone gross total resection developed recurrence at the primary tumor site. The 3-year estimate of local control, progression-free survival, and overall survival was 85%, 47%, and 60%, respectively. Side effects attributable to either the disease process or multimodality treatment were observed in 7 patients who developed either hypertension or vascular stenosis. These late complications resulted in the death of 2 patients. Conclusions: Intraoperative radiotherapy at the time of primary resection offers effective local control in patients with high-risk neuroblastoma. Compared with historical controls, IORT achieved comparable control and survival rates while avoiding many side effects associated with external beam radiotherapy in young children. Although complications were observed, additional analysis is needed to determine the relative contributions of the disease process and specific components of the multimodality treatment to these adverse events

  8. Cancer risk in long-term users of vitamin K antagonists: A population-based case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pottegård, Anton; Friis, Søren; Hallas, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    performed for selected cancer sites, subgroups and measures of exposure. A total of 238,196 cases and 1,713,176 controls were included. The adjusted OR for cancer associated with long-term VKA exposure was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95–1.02). Long-term VKA use was associated with increased ORs for alcohol- or obesity-related...... a matched case–control analysis. We used data from four Danish nationwide registers. Cases were all Danish individuals with a first-time cancer diagnosis (except nonmelanoma skin cancer) between 2000 and 2009. For each case, eight controls, matched by birth year and gender, were selected from the source...... cancer sites, whereas we observed a decreased risk of prostate cancer (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.78–0.95). Our study does not support a general chemopreventive effect of VKA drugs. However, in accordance with findings from previous studies, we found an inverse association between use of VKA and prostate cancer....

  9. Single-living is associated with increased risk of long-term mortality among employed patients with acute myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Finn Erl

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Finn Erland Nielsen, Shan MardDepartment of Cardiology S, Herlev University Hospital, DenmarkObjective: There is conflicting evidence about the impact of social support on adverse outcome after acute myocardial infarction (MI. We examined the relation between single-living and long-term all-cause mortality after MI.Design: A prospective cohort study of 242 employed patients with MI followed up to 16 years after MI.Results: A total of 106 (43.8% patients died during the follow-up. Single-living nearly doubled the risk of death; after adjusting for potential confounding factors, single-living was an independent predictor of death, with a hazard ratio of 2.55 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–4.30. Other predictors of death were diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, age, and ejection fraction less than 35%.Conclusion: Single-living is a prognostic determinant of long-term all-cause mortality after MI.Keywords: acute myocardial infarction, social support, single-living, prognosis.

  10. Numeric simulation model for long-term orthodontic tooth movement with contact boundary conditions using the finite element method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamanaka, Ryo; Yamaoka, Satoshi; Anh, Tuan Nguyen; Tominaga, Jun-Ya; Koga, Yoshiyuki; Yoshida, Noriaki

    2017-11-01

    Although many attempts have been made to simulate orthodontic tooth movement using the finite element method, most were limited to analyses of the initial displacement in the periodontal ligament and were insufficient to evaluate the effect of orthodontic appliances on long-term tooth movement. Numeric simulation of long-term tooth movement was performed in some studies; however, neither the play between the brackets and archwire nor the interproximal contact forces were considered. The objectives of this study were to simulate long-term orthodontic tooth movement with the edgewise appliance by incorporating those contact conditions into the finite element model and to determine the force system when the space is closed with sliding mechanics. We constructed a 3-dimensional model of maxillary dentition with 0.022-in brackets and 0.019 × 0.025-in archwire. Forces of 100 cN simulating sliding mechanics were applied. The simulation was accomplished on the assumption that bone remodeling correlates with the initial tooth displacement. This method could successfully represent the changes in the moment-to-force ratio: the tooth movement pattern during space closure. We developed a novel method that could simulate the long-term orthodontic tooth movement and accurately determine the force system in the course of time by incorporating contact boundary conditions into finite element analysis. It was also suggested that friction is progressively increased during space closure in sliding mechanics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Long-term recall of social relationships related to addiction and HIV risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, R L; Janssen, T; Braciszewski, J M; Vose-O'Neal, A

    2017-08-01

    Social relationships have been demonstrated as a key predictor of relapse among addicted persons and are likely to be important determinants of HIV risk behaviors also. However, the degree to which this population can reliably and consistently identify important people (IPs) in retrospect has been understudied. Using the modified Important People and Activities questionnaire, we investigated to what degree IPs were dropped, added, or retained, and whether data about individual IPs were reported accurately on 6- and 12-month follow up periods using a sample of 50 drug or alcohol abusing participants. We found that IPs were largely retained, and that those retained versus dropped/added differed by their reaction to participant alcohol/drug use, as well as frequency of contact. We further found that there were differences in reliability of data describing specific IPs. While both 6- and 12-month follow up periods led to reliabilities ranging from excellent to fair, we found poorer reliability on responses to recall of "frequency of contact" and "reactions to drinking", as well as "reactions to drug use". Future investigations of reliability of social relationships recalled retrospectively should attempt to examine possible systematic biases in addition to the reliability of specific IP data. More sophisticated studies are needed on factors associated with systematic variation in reporting of aspects of social relationships that are associated with addictions or HIV risk outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Long-term use of angiotensin receptor blockers and the risk of cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Azoulay

    Full Text Available The association between angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs and cancer is controversial with meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials and observational studies reporting conflicting results. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine whether ARBs are associated with an overall increased risk of the four most common cancers, namely, lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers, and to explore these effects separately for each cancer type. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a nested case-control analysis within the United Kingdom (UK General Practice Research Database. We assembled a cohort of patients prescribed antihypertensive agents between 1995, the year the first ARB (losartan entered the UK market, and 2008, with follow-up until December 31, 2010. Cases were patients newly-diagnosed with lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancer during follow-up. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted rate ratios (RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of cancer incidence, comparing ever use of ARBs with ever use of diuretics and/or beta-blockers. The cohort included 1,165,781 patients, during which 41,059 patients were diagnosed with one of the cancers under study (rate 554/100,000 person-years. When compared to diuretics and/or beta-blockers, ever use of ARBs was not associated with an increased rate of cancer overall (RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96-1.03 or with each cancer site separately. The use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and calcium channel blockers was associated with an increased rate of lung cancer (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.06-1.20 and RR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12-1.27, respectively. This study provides additional evidence that the use of ARBs does not increase the risk of cancer overall or any of the four major cancer sites. Additional research is needed to further investigate a potentially increased risk of lung cancer with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and calcium channel blockers.

  13. Long term risk of Wolff-Parkinson-White pattern and syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Susan S; Knight, Bradley P

    2017-05-01

    For years, conventional wisdom has held that patients with asymptomatic ventricular pre-excitation (asymptomatic WPW or WPW pattern) were at low risk for adverse outcomes. This assumption has been challenged more recently in a number of observational/natural history studies as well as in prospective trials in which patients were more aggressively studied via invasive electrophysiology study (EPS) and more aggressively treated, in some cases, with pre-emptive catheter ablation, despite the lack of symptoms. In sum, the data do not definitively support one approach (early, up-stream EPS and/or ablation) vs. the other (watchful waiting with close monitoring). The most recent pediatric and adult guidelines reflect this ambiguity with a broad spectrum of approaches endorsed. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. A PRA case study of extended long term decay heat removal for shutdown risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roglans, J.; Ragland, W.A.; Hill, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A research reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The results of this PRA have shown that the decay heat removal system for EBR-II is extremely robust and reliable. In addition, the methodology used demonstrates how the actions of other systems not normally used for actions of other systems not normally used for decay heat removal can be used to expand the mission time of the decay heat removal system and further increase its reliability. The methodology may also be extended to account for the impact of non-safety systems in enhancing the reliability of other dedicated safety systems

  15. Long-term mortality risk in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoogwegt, Madelein T; Theuns, Dominic A M J; Pedersen, Susanne S.

    2014-01-01

    .9)). The impact of heart rate and QRS duration on time to all-cause mortality was separately assessed with Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, adjusting for clinical factors and symptoms of depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Mean (SD) heart rate was 68.0 ± 13.3 bpm and mean QRS duration was 130.9 ± 36.9 ms....... Heart rate of ≥80 bpm was associated with increased risk of mortality (HR=1.86; 95% CI=1.15-3.00; p=.011) in unadjusted analysis. In adjusted analyses, this relationship remained significant both with depression (HR=1.86, 95% CI=1.12-3.09; p=.017) and anxiety (HR=1.82, 95% CI=1.10-3.03; p=.021...

  16. Clinical significance of radioimmunological HPL findings in long-term management of premature delivery risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruckhaeberle, K.-E.; Bilek, K.; Viehweg, B.; Kuehndel, K.; Colditz, U.; Baer, G.

    1981-01-01

    Premature birth is not only characterized by premature delivery action but it is ever more frequently interpreted as the disturbed fetoplacental unit syndrome. In an attempt to therapeutically prevent premature delivery the placental function should be monitored. Possible intrauterine survival should be assessed as accurately as possible against extrauterine survival in order that the necessary tocolysis time could be determined. In our observations, clinical significance was studied of radioimmunologically determined HPL values in the serum under tocolysis conditions at premature birth risk on the basis of postnatal classification of the postnatal condition and of the particularity of the adaptation phase of the neonates. The significance of HPL determination in checking the fetoplacental unit during tocolysis should be arrived at while also using other diagnostic techniques, such as oxytocinase or estriol, ultrasound biometry, cardiotocography. (author)

  17. Risks of long-term effect of microwave radiation from mobile communication systems on human organism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chekhun, V.F.; Yakimenko, Yi.L.; Tsibulyin, O.S.; Sidorik, Je.P.; Chekhun, V.F.; Yakimenko, Yi.L.; Tsibulyin, O.S.; Sidorik, Je.P.

    2011-01-01

    It has been detected that commercial models of cell phones on the market of Ukraine sometimes emit microwaves in intensity by 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than the national safety limit for non-ionizing radiation. The survey of Ukrainian students has revealed an active usage of cell phones and a high percent of youth with the subjective feeling of physical discomfort and/or pain in head during cell phone talks. A significant time-dependent biological activity of the certain modes of low-intensity microwave radiation on the model of bird somitogenesis has been demonstrated.

  18. Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schouten, L.S.; Joling, C.I.; van der Gulden, J.W.J.; Heymans, M.W.; Bultmann, U.; Roelen, C.A.M.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the Work Ability Index (WAI) as a tool to screen for risk of different durations of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) among manual and office workers.

  19. Long-term biodosimetry Redux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

    2016-01-01

    This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

  20. Novel remote electronic medication supply model for opioid-dependent outpatients with polypharmacy--first long-term case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allemann, Samuel S; Dürsteler, Kenneth M; Strasser, Johannes; Vogel, Marc; Stoeckle, Marcel; Hersberger, Kurt E; Arnet, Isabelle

    2017-08-16

    Patients with substance use disorders grow older thanks to effective treatments. Together with a high prevalence of comorbidities, psychological problems, and low social support, these patients are at high risk for medication non-adherence. Established treatment facilities face challenges to accommodate these complex patients within their setting. Electronic medication management aids (e-MMAs) might be appropriate to simultaneously monitor and improve adherence for these patients. We report the first long-term experiences with a novel remote electronic medication supply model for two opioid-dependent patients with HIV. John (beginning dementia, 52 years, 6 tablets daily at 12 am) and Mary (frequent drug holidays, 48 years, 5-6 tablets daily at 8 pm) suffered from disease progression due to non-adherence. We electronically monitored adherence and clinical outcomes during 659 (John) and 953 (Mary) days between July 2013 and April 2016. Both patients retrieved over 90% of the pouches within 75 min of the scheduled time. Technical problems occurred in 4% (John) and 7.2% (Mary) of retrievals, but on-site support was seldom required. Viral loads fell below detection limits during the entire observation period. Continuous medication supply and persistence with treatment of over 1.7 years, timing adherence of more than 90%, and suppressed HIV viral load are first results supporting the feasibility of the novel supply model for patients on opioid-assisted treatment and polypharmacy.

  1. Long-term modeling of soil C erosion and sequestration at the small watershed scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, R.C.; Thomson, A.M. [The Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740-2496 (United States); Williams, J.R. [Blacklands Research Center, Texas A and M University, 808 East Blacklands Road, Temple, TX 76502 (United States); Post, W.M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Building 1509, Bethel Valley Road, PO Box 2008 MS6335, Oak Ridge, TN 537831-6335 (United States); McGill, W.B. [College of Science and Management, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9 (Canada); Owens, L.B. [North Appalachian Experimental Watershed, USDA-Agricultural Research Station, 28850 SR 621, Coshocton, OH 43812-0488 (United States); Lal, R. [School of Natural Resources Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, The Ohio State University, 422B Kottman Hall, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States)

    2007-01-15

    The soil C balance is determined by the difference between inputs (e.g., plant litter, organic amendments, depositional C) and outputs (e.g., soil respiration, dissolved organic C leaching, and eroded C). There is a need to improve our understanding of whether soil erosion is a sink or a source of atmospheric CO2. The objective of this paper is to discover the long-term influence of soil erosion on the C cycle of managed watersheds near Coshocton, OH. We hypothesize that the amount of eroded C that is deposited in or out of a watershed compares in magnitude to the soil C changes induced via microbial respiration. We applied the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) model to evaluate the role of erosion-deposition processes on the C balance of three small watersheds ({approx}1 ha). Experimental records from the USDA North Appalachian Experimental Watershed facility north of Coshocton, OH were u