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Sample records for modeling initiative gmi

  1. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  2. Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

  3. Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wargan, Krzysztof; Orbe, Clara; Pawson, Steven; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Oman, Luke; Olsen, Mark; Coy, Lawrence; Knowland, Emma

    2018-01-01

    Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay"� mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context

  4. GMI-IPS: Python Processing Software for Aircraft Campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damon, M. R.; Strode, S. A.; Steenrod, S. D.; Prather, M. J.

    2018-01-01

    NASA's Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) seeks to understand the impact of anthropogenic air pollution on gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Four flight campaigns are being deployed on a seasonal basis to establish a continuous global-scale data set intended to improve the representation of chemically reactive gases in global atmospheric chemistry models. The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), is creating chemical transport simulations on a global scale for each of the ATom flight campaigns. To meet the computational demands required to translate the GMI simulation data to grids associated with the flights from the ATom campaigns, the GMI ICARTT Processing Software (GMI-IPS) has been developed and is providing key functionality for data processing and analysis in this ongoing effort. The GMI-IPS is written in Python and provides computational kernels for data interpolation and visualization tasks on GMI simulation data. A key feature of the GMI-IPS, is its ability to read ICARTT files, a text-based file format for airborne instrument data, and extract the required flight information that defines regional and temporal grid parameters associated with an ATom flight. Perhaps most importantly, the GMI-IPS creates ICARTT files containing GMI simulated data, which are used in collaboration with ATom instrument teams and other modeling groups. The initial main task of the GMI-IPS is to interpolate GMI model data to the finer temporal resolution (1-10 seconds) of a given flight. The model data includes basic fields such as temperature and pressure, but the main focus of this effort is to provide species concentrations of chemical gases for ATom flights. The software, which uses parallel computation techniques for data intensive tasks, linearly interpolates each of the model fields to the time resolution of the flight. The temporally interpolated data is then saved to disk, and is used to create additional derived quantities. In order to translate the GMI model data to the

  5. Assessment and Applications of NASA Ozone Data Products Derived from Aura OMI-MLS Satellite Measurements in Context of the GMI Chemical Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, J. R.; Olsen, M. A.; Witte, J. C.; Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Wargan, K.; Liu, X.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Yang, K.; Kaplan, T. B.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), both onboard the Aura spacecraft, have been used to produce daily global maps of column and profile ozone since August 2004. Here we compare and evaluate three strategies to obtain daily maps of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from OMI and MLS measurements: trajectory mapping, direct profile retrieval, and data assimilation. Evaluation is based upon an assessment that includes validation using ozonesondes and comparisons with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM). We investigate applications of the three ozone data products from near-decadal and inter-annual timescales to day-to-day case studies. Zonally averaged inter-annual changes in tropospheric ozone from all of the products in any latitude range are of the order 1-2 Dobson Units while changes (increases) over the 8-year Aura record investigated http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/atbd-category/49 vary approximately 2-4 Dobson Units. It is demonstrated that all of the ozone products can measure and monitor exceptional tropospheric ozone events including major forest fire and pollution transport events. Stratospheric ozone during the Aura record has several anomalous inter-annual events including stratospheric warming split events in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics that are well captured using the data assimilation ozone profile product. Data assimilation with continuous daily global coverage and vertical ozone profile information is the best of the three strategies at generating a global tropospheric and stratospheric ozone product for science applications.

  6. Permalloy GMI sensor

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ripka, P.; Platil, A.; Kaspar, P.; Tipek, A.; Malatek, M.; Kraus, Luděk

    254-255, - (2003), s. 633-635 ISSN 0304-8853. [Soft Magnetic Material Conference ( SMM 15). Bilbao, 05.09.2001-07.09.2001] R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 355 Grant - others:HPMF-CT-2000(XE) 00695 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : magnetic sensors * GMI effect * magnetometer Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 0.910, year: 2003

  7. Chemistry Simulations Using MERRA-2 Reanalysis with the GMI CTM and Replay in Support of the Atmospheric Composition Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke D.; Strahan, Susan E.

    2016-01-01

    Simulations using reanalyzed meteorological conditions have been long used to understand causes of atmospheric composition change over the recent past. Using the new Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorology, chemistry simulations are being conducted to create products covering 1980-2016 for the atmospheric composition community. These simulations use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism in two different models: the GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM) and the GEOS-5 model developed Replay mode. Replay mode means an integration of the GEOS-5 general circulation model that is incrementally adjusted each time step toward the MERRA-2 analysis. The GMI CTM is a 1 x 1.25 simulation and the MERRA-2 GMI Replay simulation uses the native MERRA-2 approximately horizontal resolution on the cubed sphere. The Replay simulations is driven by the online use of key MERRA-2 meteorological variables (i.e. U, V, T, and surface pressure) with all other variables calculated in response to those variables. A specialized set of transport diagnostics is included in both runs to better understand trace gas transport and changes over the recent past.

  8. Neuro-genetic system for optimization of GMI samples sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitta Botelho, A C O; Vellasco, M M B R; Hall Barbosa, C R; Costa Silva, E

    2016-03-01

    Magnetic sensors are largely used in several engineering areas. Among them, magnetic sensors based on the Giant Magnetoimpedance (GMI) effect are a new family of magnetic sensing devices that have a huge potential for applications involving measurements of ultra-weak magnetic fields. The sensitivity of magnetometers is directly associated with the sensitivity of their sensing elements. The GMI effect is characterized by a large variation of the impedance (magnitude and phase) of a ferromagnetic sample, when subjected to a magnetic field. Recent studies have shown that phase-based GMI magnetometers have the potential to increase the sensitivity by about 100 times. The sensitivity of GMI samples depends on several parameters, such as sample length, external magnetic field, DC level and frequency of the excitation current. However, this dependency is yet to be sufficiently well-modeled in quantitative terms. So, the search for the set of parameters that optimizes the samples sensitivity is usually empirical and very time consuming. This paper deals with this problem by proposing a new neuro-genetic system aimed at maximizing the impedance phase sensitivity of GMI samples. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network is used to model the impedance phase and a Genetic Algorithm uses the information provided by the neural network to determine which set of parameters maximizes the impedance phase sensitivity. The results obtained with a data set composed of four different GMI sample lengths demonstrate that the neuro-genetic system is able to correctly and automatically determine the set of conditioning parameters responsible for maximizing their phase sensitivities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2004-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

  10. GPM, DPR, GMI Level 2B Level-2 DPR and GMI Combined V03

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The 2BCMB product uses data from the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radars and GMI, determining the precipitation structure that best fits the combined data from these...

  11. Magnetic GMI sensor for detection of biomolecules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiriac, Horia; Tibu, Mihai; Moga, Anca-Eugenia; Herea, Dumitru D.

    2005-01-01

    A magnetic sensor based on the giant magnetoimpedance (GMI) effect for the detection of biomolecules was made with a CoFeSiB amorphous magnetic microwire as sensing element. Using soft ferromagnetic cobalt microparticles and field sensitivities of the impedance of about 2.5%/A m -1 in the very low field region (less than 200 A m -1 ) at frequencies close to 10 MHz, a highly sensitive response was measured, appropriate for the detection of low biomolecule concentrations

  12. GPM, GMI Level 2A Radiometer Profiling V03

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The 2AGPROF (also known as, GPM GPROF (Level 2)) algorithm retrieves consistent precipitation and related science fields from the following GMI and partner passive...

  13. GPM, DPR, GMI Level 3 Combined Precipitation V03

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — There are uncertainties in the interpretation of data from any one of the instruments (KuPR, KaPR, and GMI). By using data from multiple instruments, further...

  14. Novel Magnetic Field Meter Based on Giant Magneto-impedance (GMI Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Nesteruk

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available A novel magnetic field GMI-sensor/meter has been invented and designed. Its laboratory model was constructed and tested, demonstrating the sensitivity of 1.10–8 T (100 mGs. The principle of operation of this meter is based on changes of the quality factor of the resonance circuit a part of which is a magnetic GMI sensing element.These changes are due to variations in the real component of the impedance of this element caused by an external DC-field. The sensing element is in the form of a piece of the “non-magnetostrictive” amorphous ribbon. Magnetic field modulation of an acoustic frequency and feedback circuit (compensating field applied to the device, significantly increases stability and linearity of the measuring system.

  15. Randomized phase 2 study of GMI-1070 in SCD: reduction in time to resolution of vaso-occlusive events and decreased opioid use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wun, Ted; McCavit, Timothy L.; De Castro, Laura M.; Krishnamurti, Lakshmanan; Lanzkron, Sophie; Hsu, Lewis L.; Smith, Wally R.; Rhee, Seungshin; Magnani, John L.; Thackray, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Treatment of vaso-occlusive crises (VOC) or events in sickle cell disease (SCD) remains limited to symptom relief with opioids. Animal models support the effectiveness of the pan-selectin inhibitor GMI-1070 in reducing selectin-mediated cell adhesion and abrogating VOC. We studied GMI-1070 in a prospective multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 study of 76 SCD patients with VOC. Study drug (GMI-1070 or placebo) was given every 12 hours for up to 15 doses. Other treatment was per institutional standard of care. All subjects reached the composite primary end point of resolution of VOC. Although time to reach the composite primary end point was not statistically different between the groups, clinically meaningful reductions in mean and median times to VOC resolution of 41 and 63 hours (28% and 48%, P = .19 for both) were observed in the active treatment group vs the placebo group. As a secondary end point, GMI-1070 appeared safe in acute vaso-occlusion, and adverse events were not different in the two arms. Also in secondary analyses, mean cumulative IV opioid analgesic use was reduced by 83% with GMI-1070 vs placebo (P = .010). These results support a phase 3 study of GMI-1070 (now rivipansel) for SCD VOC. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01119833. PMID:25733584

  16. Phase 1 study of the E-selectin inhibitor GMI 1070 in patients with sickle cell anemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ted Wun

    Full Text Available Sickle cell anemia is an inherited disorder of hemoglobin that leads to a variety of acute and chronic complications. Abnormal cellular adhesion, mediated in part by selectins, has been implicated in the pathophysiology of the vaso-occlusion seen in sickle cell anemia, and selectin inhibition was able to restore blood flow in a mouse model of sickle cell disease.We performed a Phase 1 study of the selectin inhibitor GMI 1070 in patients with sickle cell anemia. Fifteen patients who were clinically stable received GMI 1070 in two infusions.The drug was well tolerated without significant adverse events. There was a modest increase in total peripheral white blood cell count without clinical symptoms. Plasma concentrations were well-described by a two-compartment model with an elimination T1/2 of 7.7 hours and CLr of 19.6 mL/hour/kg. Computer-assisted intravital microscopy showed transient increases in red blood cell velocity in 3 of the 4 patients studied.GMI 1070 was safe in stable patients with sickle cell anemia, and there was suggestion of increased blood flow in a subset of patients. At some time points between 4 and 48 hours after treatment with GMI 1070, there were significant decreases in biomarkers of endothelial activation (sE-selectin, sP-selectin, sICAM, leukocyte activation (MAC-1, LFA-1, PM aggregates and the coagulation cascade (tissue factor, thrombin-antithrombin complexes. Development of GMI 1070 for the treatment of acute vaso-occlusive crisis is ongoing.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00911495.

  17. Phase 1 Study of the E-Selectin Inhibitor GMI 1070 in Patients with Sickle Cell Anemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wun, Ted; Styles, Lori; DeCastro, Laura; Telen, Marilyn J.; Kuypers, Frans; Cheung, Anthony; Kramer, William; Flanner, Henry; Rhee, Seungshin; Magnani, John L.; Thackray, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Background Sickle cell anemia is an inherited disorder of hemoglobin that leads to a variety of acute and chronic complications. Abnormal cellular adhesion, mediated in part by selectins, has been implicated in the pathophysiology of the vaso-occlusion seen in sickle cell anemia, and selectin inhibition was able to restore blood flow in a mouse model of sickle cell disease. Methods We performed a Phase 1 study of the selectin inhibitor GMI 1070 in patients with sickle cell anemia. Fifteen patients who were clinically stable received GMI 1070 in two infusions. Results The drug was well tolerated without significant adverse events. There was a modest increase in total peripheral white blood cell count without clinical symptoms. Plasma concentrations were well-described by a two-compartment model with an elimination T1/2 of 7.7 hours and CLr of 19.6 mL/hour/kg. Computer-assisted intravital microscopy showed transient increases in red blood cell velocity in 3 of the 4 patients studied. Conclusions GMI 1070 was safe in stable patients with sickle cell anemia, and there was suggestion of increased blood flow in a subset of patients. At some time points between 4 and 48 hours after treatment with GMI 1070, there were significant decreases in biomarkers of endothelial activation (sE-selectin, sP-selectin, sICAM), leukocyte activation (MAC-1, LFA-1, PM aggregates) and the coagulation cascade (tissue factor, thrombin-antithrombin complexes). Development of GMI 1070 for the treatment of acute vaso-occlusive crisis is ongoing. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00911495 PMID:24988449

  18. Phase 1 study of the E-selectin inhibitor GMI 1070 in patients with sickle cell anemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wun, Ted; Styles, Lori; DeCastro, Laura; Telen, Marilyn J; Kuypers, Frans; Cheung, Anthony; Kramer, William; Flanner, Henry; Rhee, Seungshin; Magnani, John L; Thackray, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Sickle cell anemia is an inherited disorder of hemoglobin that leads to a variety of acute and chronic complications. Abnormal cellular adhesion, mediated in part by selectins, has been implicated in the pathophysiology of the vaso-occlusion seen in sickle cell anemia, and selectin inhibition was able to restore blood flow in a mouse model of sickle cell disease. We performed a Phase 1 study of the selectin inhibitor GMI 1070 in patients with sickle cell anemia. Fifteen patients who were clinically stable received GMI 1070 in two infusions. The drug was well tolerated without significant adverse events. There was a modest increase in total peripheral white blood cell count without clinical symptoms. Plasma concentrations were well-described by a two-compartment model with an elimination T1/2 of 7.7 hours and CLr of 19.6 mL/hour/kg. Computer-assisted intravital microscopy showed transient increases in red blood cell velocity in 3 of the 4 patients studied. GMI 1070 was safe in stable patients with sickle cell anemia, and there was suggestion of increased blood flow in a subset of patients. At some time points between 4 and 48 hours after treatment with GMI 1070, there were significant decreases in biomarkers of endothelial activation (sE-selectin, sP-selectin, sICAM), leukocyte activation (MAC-1, LFA-1, PM aggregates) and the coagulation cascade (tissue factor, thrombin-antithrombin complexes). Development of GMI 1070 for the treatment of acute vaso-occlusive crisis is ongoing. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00911495.

  19. High Frequency Amplitude Detector for GMI Magnetic Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aktham Asfour

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A new concept of a high-frequency amplitude detector and demodulator for Giant-Magneto-Impedance (GMI sensors is presented. This concept combines a half wave rectifier, with outstanding capabilities and high speed, and a feedback approach that ensures the amplitude detection with easily adjustable gain. The developed detector is capable of measuring high-frequency and very low amplitude signals without the use of diode-based active rectifiers or analog multipliers. The performances of this detector are addressed throughout the paper. The full circuitry of the design is given, together with a comprehensive theoretical study of the concept and experimental validation. The detector has been used for the amplitude measurement of both single frequency and pulsed signals and for the demodulation of amplitude-modulated signals. It has also been successfully integrated in a GMI sensor prototype. Magnetic field and electrical current measurements in open- and closed-loop of this sensor have also been conducted.

  20. Neutron guides and scientific neutron equipment at CILAS/GMI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautier-Picard, P.

    2003-01-01

    CILAS company is the world's leading supplier of complete neutron guides systems. The neutron optics with multilayer coatings produced by CILAS have become an international standard for neutron beam transportation in the modern research institutes. During the last 30 years, CILAS designed, produced and installed more than 5000 meters of guides in many European, American and Asian countries. To reinforce its leadership and presence in neutron research, CILAS acquired the company Grenoble Modular Instruments (GMI), a leading company in high precision mechanics, engineering and manufacturing of spectrometers and scientific equipment for neutron and synchrotron research. (author)

  1. Finite element method calculations of GMI in thin films and sandwiched structures: Size and edge effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Arribas, A.; Barandiaran, J.M.; Cos, D. de

    2008-01-01

    The impedance values of magnetic thin films and magnetic/conductor/magnetic sandwiched structures with different widths are computed using the finite element method (FEM). The giant magneto-impedance (GMI) is calculated from the difference of the impedance values obtained with high and low permeability of the magnetic material. The results depend considerably on the width of the sample, demonstrating that edge effects are decisive for the GMI performance. It is shown that, besides the usual skin effect that is responsible for GMI, an 'unexpected' increase of the current density takes place at the lateral edge of the sample. In magnetic thin films this effect is dominant when the permeability is low. In the trilayers, it is combined with the lack of shielding of the central conductor at the edge. The resulting effects on GMI are shown to be large for both kinds of samples. The conclusions of this study are of great importance for the successful design of miniaturized GMI devices

  2. Neutron guides and scientific neutron equipment at CILAS/GMI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautier-Picard, P.

    2001-01-01

    The French company CILAS is the world's leading supplier of complete neutron guide systems. The neutron optics with multilayer coatings produced by CILAS has become an international standard for neutron beam transportation at modern research institutes. During the last 30 years, CILAS designed, produced and installed more than 5000 meters of guides in many European, American and Asian countries. By these projects the company has acquired a very strong experience with: conception, design, manufacturing, setting up of Neutron Guides. In most cases, CILAS was in charge of the design, as well as the manufacturing of the whole system, comprising optical and mechanical components, vacuum system, shutter and shielding definition. By our long experience we have also acquired good knowledge of the materials used in this specific nuclear environment and their behavior under radiation such as glass, borated or not, coatings, glue or metal. To reinforce its leadership and presence in neutron research, CILAS acquired the company Grenoble Modular Instruments (GMI) a leading company in high precision mechanics, engineering and manufacturing of spectrometers and scientific equipment for neutron and synchrotron research. This merger allows us to design and to supply a complete range of high precision optical and mechanical eqipment for neutron research. CILAS and GMI have designed, manufactured and installed a High Resolution Powder Diffractometer for the 30MW Korean Hanaro Reactor. This project included the calculation, design and supply of the complete biological shielding of the instrument as well as for the primary beam shutter on the thermal beamport. (author)

  3. The Sensitivity of Arctic Ozone Loss to Polar Stratospheric Cloud Volume and Chlorine and Bromine Loading in a Chemistry and Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Strahan, S. E.; Polansky, B. C.

    2006-01-01

    The sensitivity of Arctic ozone loss to polar stratospheric cloud volume (V(sub PSC)) and chlorine and bromine loading is explored using chemistry and transport models (CTMs). A simulation using multi-decadal output from a general circulation model (GCM) in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) CTM complements one recycling a single year s GCM output in the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM. Winter polar ozone loss in the GSFC CTM depends on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and polar vortex characteristics (temperatures, descent, isolation, polar stratospheric cloud amount). Polar ozone loss in the GMI CTM depends only on changes in EESC as the dynamics repeat annually. The GSFC CTM simulation reproduces a linear relationship between ozone loss and Vpsc derived from observations for 1992 - 2003 which holds for EESC within approx.85% of its maximum (approx.1990 - 2020). The GMI simulation shows that ozone loss varies linearly with EESC for constant, high V(sub PSC).

  4. A New 1DVAR Retrieval for AMSR2 and GMI: Validation and Sensitivites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, D.; Kummerow, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    A new non-raining retrieval has been developed for microwave imagers and applied to the GMI and AMSR2 sensors. With the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) as the forward model for the physical retrieval, a 1-dimensional variational method finds the atmospheric state which minimizes the difference between observed and simulated brightness temperatures. A key innovation of the algorithm development is a method to calculate the sensor error covariance matrix that is specific to the forward model employed and includes off-diagonal elements, allowing the algorithm to handle various forward models and sensors with little cross-talk. The water vapor profile is resolved by way of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and then summed to get total precipitable water (TPW). Validation of retrieved 10m wind speed, TPW, and sea surface temperature (SST) is performed via comparison with buoys and radiosondes as well as global models and other remotely sensed products. In addition to the validation, sensitivity experiments investigate the impact of ancillary data on the under-constrained retrieval, a concern for climate data records that strive to be independent of model biases. The introduction of model analysis data is found to aid the algorithm most at high frequency channels and affect TPW retrievals, whereas wind and cloud water retrievals show little effect from ingesting further ancillary data.

  5. The Impact of Bending Stress on the Performance of Giant Magneto-Impedance (GMI Magnetic Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Nabias

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The flexibility of amorphous Giant Magneto-Impedance (GMI micro wires makes them easy to use in several magnetic field sensing applications, such as electrical current sensing, where they need to be deformed in order to be aligned with the measured field. The present paper deals with the bending impact, as a parameter of influence of the sensor, on the GMI effect in 100 µm Co-rich amorphous wires. Changes in the values of key parameters associated with the GMI effect have been investigated under bending stress. These parameters included the GMI ratio, the intrinsic sensitivity, and the offset at a given bias field. The experimental results have shown that bending the wire resulted in a reduction of GMI ratio and sensitivity. The bending also induced a net change in the offset for the considered bending curvature and the set of used excitation parameters (1 MHz, 1 mA. Furthermore, the field of the maximum impedance, which is generally related to the anisotropy field of the wire, was increased. The reversibility and the repeatability of the bending effect were also evaluated by applying repetitive bending stresses. The observations have actually shown that the behavior of the wire under the bending stress was roughly reversible and repetitive.

  6. An enhanced electronic topology aimed at improving the phase sensitivity of GMI sensors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa Silva, E; Gusmão, L A P; Hall Barbosa, C R; Costa Monteiro, E

    2014-01-01

    The giant magnetoimpedance effect (GMI) is used in the most recent technologies developed for the detection of magnetic fields, showing potential to be applied in the measurement of ultra-weak fields. GMI samples exhibit a huge dependency of their electrical impedance on the magnetic field, which makes them excellent magnetic sensors. In spite of GMI magnetometers being mostly based on magnitude impedance characteristics, it was previously verified that sensitivity could be significantly increased by reading the impedance phase. Pursuing this idea, a phase-based GMI magnetometer has been already developed as well as an electronic configuration capable of improving the phase sensitivity of GMI samples. However, when using this topology, it was noted that the sensitivity improvement comes at the cost of reduced voltage levels in the reading terminal, degrading the signal-to-noise ratio. Another drawback of the electronic configuration was that it was not capable of enforcing a linear behavior of the impedance phase in the function of the magnetic field in a given operation region. Aiming at overcoming those issues and then optimizing the behavior of the circuit developed to improve the phase sensitivity, this paper mathematically describes a completely new methodology, presents an enhanced newly developed electronic topology and exemplifies its application. (paper)

  7. Inclusion-initiated fracture model for ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, J.; Nicholson, P.S.

    1990-01-01

    The fracture of ceramics initiating from a typical inclusion is analyzed. The inclusion is considered to have a thermal expansion coefficient and fracture toughness lower than those of the matrix and a Young's modulus higher than that of the matrix. Inclusion-initiated fracture is modeled for a spherical inclusion using a weight function method to compute the residual stress intensity factor for a part-through elliptical crack. The results are applied to an α-Al 2 O 3 inclusion embedded in a tetragonal ZrO 2 ceramic. The strength predictions agree well with experimental data

  8. A polar stratospheric cloud parameterization for the global modeling initiative three-dimensional model and its response to stratospheric aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, D. B.; Douglass, A. R.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Rotman, D. A.

    2000-01-01

    We describe a new parameterization of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) which was written for and incorporated into the three-dimensional (3-D) chemistry and transport model (CTM) developed for NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The parameterization was designed to respond to changes in NO y and H 2 O produced by high-speed civilian transport (HSCT) emissions. The parameterization predicts surface area densities (SADs) of both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs for use in heterogeneous chemistry calculations. Type 1 PSCs are assumed to have a supercooled ternary sulfate (STS) composition, and Type 2 PSCs are treated as water ice with a coexisting nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) phase. Sedimentation is treated by assuming that the PSC particles obey lognormal size distributions, resulting in a realistic mass flux of condensed phase H 2 O and HNO 3 . We examine a simulation of the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude lower stratosphere winter and spring seasons driven by temperature and wind fields from a modified version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 2 (MACCM2). Predicted PSC SADs and median radii for both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs are consistent with observations. Gas phase HNO 3 and H 2 O concentrations in the high-latitude lower stratosphere qualitatively agree with Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) HNO 3 and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) H 2 O observations. The residual denitrification and dehydration of the model polar vortex after polar winter compares well with atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) observations taken during November 1994. When the NO x and H 2 O emissions of a standard 500-aircraft HSCT fleet with a NO x emission index of 5 are added, NO x and H 2 O concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex before winter increase by up to 3%. This results in earlier onset of PSC formation, denitrification, and

  9. The AGU Data Management Maturity Model Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    In September 2014, the AGU Board of Directors approved two initiatives to help the Earth and space sciences community address the growing challenges accompanying the increasing size and complexity of data. These initiatives are: 1) Data Science Credentialing: development of a continuing education and professional certification program to help scientists in their careers and to meet growing responsibilities and requirements around data science; and 2) Data Management Maturity (DMM) Model: development and implementation of a data management maturity model to assess process maturity against best practices, and to identify opportunities in organizational data management processes. Each of these has been organized within AGU as an Editorial Board and both Boards have held kick off meetings. The DMM model Editorial Board will recommend strategies for adapting and deploying a DMM model to the Earth and space sciences create guidance documents to assist in its implementation, and provide input on a pilot appraisal process. This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the DMM model Editorial Board and plans for work to be done over the upcoming year.

  10. Modelling the initiation of basal sliding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantelli, E.; Schoof, C.

    2017-12-01

    The initiation of basal sliding is a thermally-controlled process that affects ice speed, englacial heat transport, and melt water production at the bed, and ultimately influences the large-scale dynamics of ice sheets. From a modelling perspective, describing the onset of sliding in thin-film models suitable for ice sheet scale simulations is problematic. In particular, previous work concluded that, under shallow-ice mechanics, the scenario of a hard switch from frozen to molten bed leads to an infinite vertical velocity at the onset, and higher-order mechanical formulations are needed to describe sliding initiation. An alternative view considers the occurrence of subtemperate sliding, which allows for a smooth sliding velocity across the onset. However, the sliding velocity decreases rapidly as temperature drops below the melting point, thus raising the issue of whether a mechanical model that does not resolve the ice sheet thickness scale is ever appropriate to model the onset of sliding. In this study we first present a boundary layer model for the hard switch scenario. Our analysis, which considers a thermo-mechanically coupled Stokes flow near the onset, shows that the abrupt onset of sliding is never possible. In fact, the acceleration of ice flow deflects the flowlines towards the bed, which freezes again immediately downstream to the onset. This leads to the conclusion that the sliding velocity must change smoothly across the onset, thus the temperature dependence of sliding needs to be taken into account. In this context, we examine a limiting case of standard temperature-dependent sliding laws, where sliding onset takes the form of an extended transition region interposed between fully frozen and temperate bed. In the transition region basal temperature is at the melting point, and the sliding velocity varies smoothly as dictated by the energy budget of the bed. As the extent of this region is not small compared to the ice sheet length scale, we couple

  11. GMI发布新一代在线市场研究系统 GMI X%GMI Released a New Online Market Research System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GMI; 王凯

    2009-01-01

    @@ 全球领先的在线市场研究服务公司GMI日前在中国宣布,将在中国推出和应用其最新的在线研究系统--"GMI X",向中国的市场研究公司提供更精准的样本收集和分析工具,真正实现"在正确的时候从正确的人群中获取正确的信息"的市场研究的目的.这个一个月前在北美市场发布的新技术,"将在线市场研究的质量提升到一个新高度".

  12. Assessment of WRF microphysics schemes to simulate extreme precipitation events from the perspective of GMI radiative signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Y.; Shin, D. B.; Joh, M.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical simulations of precipitation depend to a large degree on the assumed cloud microphysics schemes representing the formation, growth and fallout of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Recent studies show that assumed cloud microphysics play a major role not only in forecasting precipitation, especially in cases of extreme precipitation events, but also in the quality of the passive microwave rainfall estimation. Evaluations of the various Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model microphysics schemes in this study are based on a method that was originally developed to construct the a-priori databases of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures (TBs) for precipitation retrievals. This methodology generates three-dimensional (3D) precipitation fields by matching the GPM dual frequency radar (DPR) reflectivity profiles with those calculated from cloud resolving model (CRM)-derived hydrometeor profiles. The method eventually provides 3D simulated precipitation fields over the DPR scan swaths. That is, atmospheric and hydrometeor profiles can be generated at each DPR pixel based on CRM and DPR reflectivity profiles. The generated raining systems over DPR observation fields can be applied to any radiometers that are unaccompanied with a radar for microwave radiative calculation with consideration of each sensor's channel and field of view. Assessment of the WRF model microphysics schemes for several typhoon cases in terms of emission and scattering signals of GMI will be discussed.

  13. European initiatives for modeling emissions from transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joumard, Robert; Hickman, A. John; Samaras, Zissis

    1998-01-01

    In Europe there have been many cooperative studies into transport emission inventories since the late 80s. These cover the scope of CORINAIR program involving experts from seven European Community laboratories addressing only road transport emissions at national level. These also include the latest...... covered are the composition of the vehicle fleets, emission factors, driving statistics and the modeling approach. Many of the European initiatives aim also at promoting further cooperation between national laboratories and at defining future research needs. An assessment of these future needs...... is presented from a European point of view....

  14. Evaluation of GMI and PMI diffeomorphic-based demons algorithms for aligning PET and CT Images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Juan; Wang, Hongjun; Zhang, You; Yin, Yong

    2015-07-08

    Fusion of anatomic information in computed tomography (CT) and functional information in 18F-FDG positron emission tomography (PET) is crucial for accurate differentiation of tumor from benign masses, designing radiotherapy treatment plan and staging of cancer. Although current PET and CT images can be acquired from combined 18F-FDG PET/CT scanner, the two acquisitions are scanned separately and take a long time, which may induce potential positional errors in global and local caused by respiratory motion or organ peristalsis. So registration (alignment) of whole-body PET and CT images is a prerequisite for their meaningful fusion. The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of two multimodal registration algorithms for aligning PET and CT images. The proposed gradient of mutual information (GMI)-based demons algorithm, which incorporated the GMI between two images as an external force to facilitate the alignment, was compared with the point-wise mutual information (PMI) diffeomorphic-based demons algorithm whose external force was modified by replacing the image intensity difference in diffeomorphic demons algorithm with the PMI to make it appropriate for multimodal image registration. Eight patients with esophageal cancer(s) were enrolled in this IRB-approved study. Whole-body PET and CT images were acquired from a combined 18F-FDG PET/CT scanner for each patient. The modified Hausdorff distance (d(MH)) was used to evaluate the registration accuracy of the two algorithms. Of all patients, the mean values and standard deviations (SDs) of d(MH) were 6.65 (± 1.90) voxels and 6.01 (± 1.90) after the GMI-based demons and the PMI diffeomorphic-based demons registration algorithms respectively. Preliminary results on oncological patients showed that the respiratory motion and organ peristalsis in PET/CT esophageal images could not be neglected, although a combined 18F-FDG PET/CT scanner was used for image acquisition. The PMI diffeomorphic-based demons

  15. Estimation of the frequency and magnetic field dependence of the skin depth in Co-rich magnetic microwires from GMI experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arcady Zhukov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We studied giant magnetoimpedance (GMI effect in magnetically soft amorphous Co-rich microwires in the extended frequency range. From obtained experimentally dependences of the GMI ratio on magnetic field at different frequencies we estimated the penetration depth and its dependence on applied magnetic field and frequency.

  16. Sensitivity of aerosol indirect forcing and autoconversion to cloud droplet parameterization: an assessment with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Meshkhidze, N.; Nenes, A.

    2006-12-01

    The aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Much of this uncertainty arises from the approach used for linking cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to precursor aerosol. Global Climate Models (GCM) use a wide range of cloud droplet activation mechanisms ranging from empirical [Boucher and Lohmann, 1995] to detailed physically- based formulations [e.g., Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, 2000; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2005]. The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties in indirect forcing and autoconversion of cloud water to rain caused by the application of different cloud droplet parameterization mechanisms; this is an important step towards constraining the aerosol indirect effects (AIE). Here we estimate the uncertainty in indirect forcing and autoconversion rate using the NASA Global Model Initiative (GMI). The GMI allows easy interchange of meteorological fields, chemical mechanisms and the aerosol microphysical packages. Therefore, it is an ideal tool for assessing the effect of different parameters on aerosol indirect forcing. The aerosol module includes primary emissions, chemical production of sulfate in clear air and in-cloud aqueous phase, gravitational sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging in and below clouds, and hygroscopic growth. Model inputs include SO2 (fossil fuel and natural), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and sea salt. The meteorological data used in this work were taken from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and two different GCMs: the NASA GEOS4 finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II' (GISS II') GCM. Simulations were carried out for "present day" and "preindustrial" emissions using different meteorological fields (i.e. DAO, FVGCM, GISS II'); cloud droplet number concentration is computed from the correlations of Boucher and Lohmann [1995], Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000

  17. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Mary Alice

    2010-01-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC and A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC and A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC and A program. The MC and A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  18. Enhancing GMI properties of melt-extracted Co-based amorphous wires by twin-zone Joule annealing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, J.S.; Cao, F.Y.; Xing, D.W.; Zhang, L.Y. [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Qin, F.X. [Advanced Composite Center for Innovation and Science (ACCIS), Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Bristol, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR (United Kingdom); Peng, H.X. [Advanced Composite Center for Innovation and Science (ACCIS), Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Bristol, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR (United Kingdom); Centre for Nanoscience and Quantum Information, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1FD (United Kingdom); Xue, X. [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Sun, J.F., E-mail: jfsun_hit@263.net [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China)

    2012-11-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer GMI effect is closely related to annealed microstructures observed by HRTEM. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Twin-zone Joule-heated annealing (TJHA) as a novel effective annealing treatment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TJHA wires have relatively larger GMI ratio and field sensitivity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer From HRTEM perspective to explain the GMI peaks feature of different states wires. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TJHA wires are useful for high-resolution magnetic sensor applications. - Abstract: The influence of twin-zone Joule annealing (TJA) on the microstructure and magnetic properties of melt-extracted Co{sub 68.2}Fe{sub 4.3}B{sub 15}Si{sub 12.5} amorphous microwires has been investigated. Experimental results indicated that twin-zone Joule annealing treatment improved the GMI property of as-cast wires to a greater extent comparing with Joule annealing (JA) and conventional vacuum annealing (CVA) techniques. At 15 MHz, e.g., the maximum GMI ratio [{Delta}Z/Z{sub 0}]{sub max} of a TJA wire increases to 104.29%, which is more than 5 times of 20.49% for the as-cast wire, nearly two times of 56.47% for the JA wire, while the CVA wire has a decreased GMI ratio; the field response sensitivity of the TJA wire increased to 171.62%/Oe from 80.32%/Oe for the as-cast wire, exceeding the values of 140.76%/Oe for the JA wire and of 39.17%/Oe for the CVA wire. The stress or structural relaxation in TJA wire increases circumferential permeability, and magnetic moment achieves a critical state of excitation for overcoming eddy-current damping or 'nail-sticked' action in rotational magnetization process at relatively high frequency. From the microstructural point of view, the role of regularly arranged atomic micro-regions (RAAM) and of medium range order region (MROR) determines the efficiency of various annealing techniques. Conclusively, TJA is established as an efficient annealing technique to enhance the GMI effect

  19. Microphysical Properties of Frozen Particles Inferred from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) Polarimetric Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jie; Wu, Dongliang

    2017-01-01

    Scattering differences induced by frozen particle microphysical properties are investigated, using the vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized radiances from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) 89 and 166GHz channels. It is the first study on global frozen particle microphysical properties that uses the dual-frequency microwave polarimetric signals. From the ice cloud scenes identified by the 183.3 3GHz channel brightness temperature (TB), we find that the scatterings of frozen particles are highly polarized with V-H polarimetric differences (PD) being positive throughout the tropics and the winter hemisphere mid-latitude jet regions, including PDs from the GMI 89 and 166GHz TBs, as well as the PD at 640GHz from the ER-2 Compact Scanning Submillimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR) during the TC4 campaign. Large polarization dominantly occurs mostly near convective outflow region (i.e., anvils or stratiform precipitation), while the polarization signal is small inside deep convective cores as well as at the remote cirrus region. Neglecting the polarimetric signal would result in as large as 30 error in ice water path retrievals. There is a universal bell-curve in the PD TB relationship, where the PD amplitude peaks at 10K for all three channels in the tropics and increases slightly with latitude. Moreover, the 166GHz PD tends to increase in the case where a melting layer is beneath the frozen particles aloft in the atmosphere, while 89GHz PD is less sensitive than 166GHz to the melting layer. This property creates a unique PD feature for the identification of the melting layer and stratiform rain with passive sensors. Horizontally oriented non-spherical frozen particles are thought to produce the observed PD because of different ice scattering properties in the V and H polarizations. On the other hand, changes in the ice microphysical habitats or orientation due to turbulence mixing can also lead to a reduced PD in the deep

  20. Diurnal Variation of Tropical Ice Cloud Microphysics inferred from Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI)'s Polarimetric Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, J.; Zeng, X.; Wu, D. L.; Li, X.

    2017-12-01

    Diurnal variation of tropical ice cloud has been well observed and examined in terms of the area of coverage, occurring frequency, and total mass, but rarely on ice microphysical parameters (habit, size, orientation, etc.) because of lack of direct measurements of ice microphysics on a high temporal and spatial resolutions. This accounts for a great portion of the uncertainty in evaluating ice cloud's role on global radiation and hydrological budgets. The design of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's procession orbit gives us an unprecedented opportunity to study the diurnal variation of ice microphysics on the global scale for the first time. Dominated by cloud ice scattering, high-frequency microwave polarimetric difference (PD, namely the brightness temperature difference between vertically- and horizontally-polarized paired channel measurements) from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) has been proven by our previous study to be very valuable to infer cloud ice microphysical properties. Using one year of PD measurements at 166 GHz, we found that cloud PD exhibits a strong diurnal cycle in the tropics (25S-25N). The peak PD amplitude varies as much as 35% over land, compared to only 6% over ocean. The diurnal cycle of the peak PD value is strongly anti-correlated with local ice cloud occurring frequency and the total ice mass with a leading period of 3 hours for the maximum correlation. The observed PD diurnal cycle can be explained by the change of ice crystal axial ratio. Using a radiative transfer model, we can simulate the observed 166 GHz PD-brightness temperature curve as well as its diurnal variation using different axial ratio values, which can be caused by the diurnal variation of ice microphysical properties including particle size, percentage of horizontally-aligned non-spherical particles, and ice habit. The leading of the change of PD ahead of ice cloud mass and occurring frequency implies the important role microphysics play in the

  1. Ørsted Initial Field Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Holme, R.; Hulot, G.

    2000-01-01

    Magnetic measurements taken by the Orsted satellite during geomagnetic quiet conditions around January 1, 2000 have been used to derive a spherical harmonic model of the Earth's magnetic field for epoch 2000.0. The maximum degree and order of the model is 19 for internal, and 2 for external, source...... fields; however, coefficients above degree 14 may not be robust. Such a detailed model exists for only one previous epoch, 1980. Achieved rms misfit is ... to the Orsted mission, this model supercedes IGRF 2000....

  2. Initiation of Setaria as a model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianmin DIAO,James SCHNABLE,Jeffrey L. BENNETZEN,Jiayang LI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Model organisms such as Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana and rice (Oryza sativa have proven essential for efficient scientific discovery and development of new methods. With the diversity of plant lineages, some important processes such as C4 photosynthesis are not found in either Arabidopsis or rice, so new model species are needed. Due to their small diploid genomes, short life cycles, self-pollination, small adult statures and prolific seed production, domesticated foxtail millet (Setaria italica and its wild ancestor, green foxtail (S. viridis, have recently been proposed as novel model species for functional genomics of the Panicoideae, especially for study of C4 photosynthesis. This review outlines the development of these species as model organisms, and discusses current challenges and future potential of a Setaria model.

  3. Flying Training Capacity Model: Initial Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lynch, Susan

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: (1) Determine the flying training capacity for 6 bases: * Sheppard AFB * Randolph AFB * Moody AFB * Columbus AFB * Laughlin AFB * Vance AFB * (2) Develop versatile flying training capacity simulation model for AETC...

  4. Evaluation of GMI and PMI diffeomorphic‐based demons algorithms for aligning PET and CT Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Juan; Zhang, You; Yin, Yong

    2015-01-01

    Fusion of anatomic information in computed tomography (CT) and functional information in F18‐FDG positron emission tomography (PET) is crucial for accurate differentiation of tumor from benign masses, designing radiotherapy treatment plan and staging of cancer. Although current PET and CT images can be acquired from combined F18‐FDG PET/CT scanner, the two acquisitions are scanned separately and take a long time, which may induce potential positional errors in global and local caused by respiratory motion or organ peristalsis. So registration (alignment) of whole‐body PET and CT images is a prerequisite for their meaningful fusion. The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of two multimodal registration algorithms for aligning PET and CT images. The proposed gradient of mutual information (GMI)‐based demons algorithm, which incorporated the GMI between two images as an external force to facilitate the alignment, was compared with the point‐wise mutual information (PMI) diffeomorphic‐based demons algorithm whose external force was modified by replacing the image intensity difference in diffeomorphic demons algorithm with the PMI to make it appropriate for multimodal image registration. Eight patients with esophageal cancer(s) were enrolled in this IRB‐approved study. Whole‐body PET and CT images were acquired from a combined F18‐FDG PET/CT scanner for each patient. The modified Hausdorff distance (dMH) was used to evaluate the registration accuracy of the two algorithms. Of all patients, the mean values and standard deviations (SDs) of dMH were 6.65 (± 1.90) voxels and 6.01 (± 1.90) after the GMI‐based demons and the PMI diffeomorphic‐based demons registration algorithms respectively. Preliminary results on oncological patients showed that the respiratory motion and organ peristalsis in PET/CT esophageal images could not be neglected, although a combined F18‐FDG PET/CT scanner was used for image acquisition. The PMI

  5. An initial model for the RIED effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, E.R.; Morono, A.

    2000-01-01

    A simple model based on electron acceleration in the conduction band giving rise to an increased F + oxygen vacancy lifetime provides an explanation for several radiation induced electrical degradation (RIED) associated observations in Al 2 O 3 . The increased F + radioluminescence noted during RIED is a direct consequence of the lifetime increase. The model predicts the observed electric field threshold for RIED, and an increase in the field threshold with increasing impurity content. RIED for RF electric fields is also explained. In addition the lifetime increase provides an explanation for the enhanced oxygen vacancy aggregation including colloid and gamma alumina production observed under RIED conditions

  6. The initiative on Model Organism Proteomes (iMOP) Session

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrimpf, Sabine P; Mering, Christian von; Bendixen, Emøke

    2012-01-01

    iMOP – the Initiative on Model Organism Proteomes – was accepted as a new HUPO initiative at the Ninth HUPO meeting in Sydney in 2010. A goal of iMOP is to integrate research groups working on a great diversity of species into a model organism community. At the Tenth HUPO meeting in Geneva...

  7. Initiating Events Modeling for On-Line Risk Monitoring Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

    1998-01-01

    In order to make on-line risk monitoring application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment more complete and realistic, a special attention need to be dedicated to initiating events modeling. Two different issues are of special importance: one is how to model initiating events frequency according to current plant configuration (equipment alignment and out of service status) and operating condition (weather and various activities), and the second is how to preserve dependencies between initiating events model and rest of PRA model. First, the paper will discuss how initiating events can be treated in on-line risk monitoring application. Second, practical example of initiating events modeling in EPRI's Equipment Out of Service on-line monitoring tool will be presented. Gains from application and possible improvements will be discussed in conclusion. (author)

  8. Design and Fabrication of a Miniaturized GMI Magnetic Sensor Based on Amorphous Wire by MEMS Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiawen Chen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A miniaturized Co-based amorphous wire GMI (Giant magneto-impedance magnetic sensor was designed and fabricated in this paper. The Co-based amorphous wire was used as the sense element due to its high sensitivity to the magnetic field. A three-dimensional micro coil surrounding the Co-based amorphous wire was fabricated by MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical System technology, which was used to extract the electrical signal. The three-dimensional micro pick-up coil was designed and simulated with HFSS (High Frequency Structure Simulator software to determine the key parameters. Surface micro machining MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical System technology was employed to fabricate the three-dimensional coil. The size of the developed amorphous wire magnetic sensor is 5.6 × 1.5 × 1.1 mm3. Helmholtz coil was used to characterize the performance of the device. The test results of the sensor sample show that the voltage change is 130 mV/Oe and the linearity error is 4.83% in the range of 0~45,000 nT. The results indicate that the developed miniaturized magnetic sensor has high sensitivity. By testing the electrical resistance of the samples, the results also showed high uniformity of each device.

  9. Simple sequence repeats and compositional bias in the bipartite Ralstonia solanacearum GMI1000 genome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vandamme Peter

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ralstonia solanacearum is an important plant pathogen. The genome of R. solananearum GMI1000 is organised into two replicons (a 3.7-Mb chromosome and a 2.1-Mb megaplasmid and this bipartite genome structure is characteristic for most R. solanacearum strains. To determine whether the megaplasmid was acquired via recent horizontal gene transfer or is part of an ancestral single chromosome, we compared the abundance, distribution and compositon of simple sequence repeats (SSRs between both replicons and also compared the respective compositional biases. Results Our data show that both replicons are very similar in respect to distribution and composition of SSRs and presence of compositional biases. Minor variations in SSR and compositional biases observed may be attributable to minor differences in gene expression and regulation of gene expression or can be attributed to the small sample numbers observed. Conclusions The observed similarities indicate that both replicons have shared a similar evolutionary history and thus suggest that the megaplasmid was not recently acquired from other organisms by lateral gene transfer but is a part of an ancestral R. solanacearum chromosome.

  10. Paraquat: model for oxidant-initiated toxicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bus, J.S.; Gibson, J.E.

    1984-04-01

    Paraquat, a quaternary ammonium bipyridyl herbicide, produces degenerative lesions in the lung after systemic administration to man and animals. The pulmonary toxicity of paraquat resembles in several ways the toxicity of several other lung toxins, including oxygen, nitrofurantoin and bleomycin. Although a definitive mechanism of toxicity of parquat has not been delineated, a cyclic single electron reduction/oxidation of the parent molecule is a critical mechanistic event. The redox cycling of paraquat has two potentially important consequences relevant to the development of toxicity: generation of activated oxygen (e.g., superoxide anion, hydrogen perioxide, hydroxyl radical) which is highly reactive to cellular macromolecules; and/or oxidation of reducing equivalents (e.g., NADPH, reduced glutathione) necessary for normal cell function. Paraquat-induced pulmonary toxicity, therefore, is a potentially useful model for evaluation of oxidant mechanisms of toxicity. Furthermore, characterization of the consequences of intracellular redox cycling of xenobiotics will no doubt provide basic information regarding the role of this phenomena in the development of chemical toxicity. 105 references, 2 figures.

  11. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  12. Effect of annealing on the second harmonic amplitude of Giant Magneto-Impedance (GMI) voltage of a Co-Fe-Si-B amorphous wire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pal, S.K. [National Metallurgical Laboratory, Jamshedpur 831007 (India)], E-mail: skp@nmlindia.org; Panda, A.K.; Mitra, A. [National Metallurgical Laboratory, Jamshedpur 831007 (India)

    2008-02-15

    Second harmonic amplitude (V{sub 2f}) of Giant Magneto-Impedance (GMI) voltage of (Fe{sub 6}Co{sub 94}){sub 72.5}Si{sub 12.5}B{sub 15} amorphous wires has been studied systematically for as-cast and Joule-heated states. Joule heating was carried out at current densities (J) of 20-40 A/mm{sup 2} for a period of 1-300 min. The amplitude of the second harmonic voltage (V{sub 2f}) initially increased with J, attained maximum and then decreased. The maximum amplitude of V{sub 2f} was observed for the sample annealed at J=25 A/mm{sup 2} for 5 min. The second harmonic peak shifted towards the higher field side with the increase of annealing current density and annealing period (t{sub p}). Few-fold increase in the amplitude of the second harmonic voltage (V{sub 2f}) was observed due to the presence of a small dc bias current (I{sub b}) of amplitude 1 mA. The asymmetry in V{sub 2f} was also observed in a Joule-heated sample. The observed asymmetry has been correlated with the bias field generated between the surface crystallized layer and the amorphous core. A small bias current of amplitude of 1 mA was applied along the direction of the applied field to minimize the asymmetry.

  13. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically-friendly ... which endeavors to integrate social, economic, cultural and environmental objectives. ... Brown Cloud penetrates Bhutan : ambient air quality and trans-boundary ...

  14. Modeling of laser damage initiated by surface contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feit, M.D.; Rubenchik, A.M.; Faux, D.R.; Riddle, R.A.; Shapiro, A.; Eder, D.C.; Penetrante, B.M.; Milam, D.; Genin, F.Y.; Kozlowski, M.R.

    1996-11-01

    The authors are engaged in a comprehensive effort to understand and model the initiation and growth of laser damage initiated by surface contaminants. This includes, for example, the initial absorption by the contaminant, heating and plasma generation, pressure and thermal loading of the transparent substrate, and subsequent shockwave propagation, 'splashing' of molten material and possible spallation, optical propagation and scattering, and treatment of material fracture. The integration use of large radiation hydrodynamics codes, optical propagation codes and material strength codes enables a comprehensive view of the damage process The following picture of surface contaminant initiated laser damage is emerging from our simulations

  15. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  16. Dynamic crack initiation toughness : experiments and peridynamic modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, John T.

    2009-10-01

    This is a dissertation on research conducted studying the dynamic crack initiation toughness of a 4340 steel. Researchers have been conducting experimental testing of dynamic crack initiation toughness, K{sub Ic}, for many years, using many experimental techniques with vastly different trends in the results when reporting K{sub Ic} as a function of loading rate. The dissertation describes a novel experimental technique for measuring K{sub Ic} in metals using the Kolsky bar. The method borrows from improvements made in recent years in traditional Kolsky bar testing by using pulse shaping techniques to ensure a constant loading rate applied to the sample before crack initiation. Dynamic crack initiation measurements were reported on a 4340 steel at two different loading rates. The steel was shown to exhibit a rate dependence, with the recorded values of K{sub Ic} being much higher at the higher loading rate. Using the knowledge of this rate dependence as a motivation in attempting to model the fracture events, a viscoplastic constitutive model was implemented into a peridynamic computational mechanics code. Peridynamics is a newly developed theory in solid mechanics that replaces the classical partial differential equations of motion with integral-differential equations which do not require the existence of spatial derivatives in the displacement field. This allows for the straightforward modeling of unguided crack initiation and growth. To date, peridynamic implementations have used severely restricted constitutive models. This research represents the first implementation of a complex material model and its validation. After showing results comparing deformations to experimental Taylor anvil impact for the viscoplastic material model, a novel failure criterion is introduced to model the dynamic crack initiation toughness experiments. The failure model is based on an energy criterion and uses the K{sub Ic} values recorded experimentally as an input. The failure model

  17. Human Cancer Models Initiative | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Human Cancer Models Initiative (HCMI) is an international consortium that is generating novel human tumor-derived culture models, which are annotated with genomic and clinical data. In an effort to advance cancer research and more fully understand how in vitro findings are related to clinical biology, HCMI-developed models and related data will be available as a community resource for cancer research.

  18. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Svend; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...... the chloride content in a 1reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORMISORM-analysis....

  19. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1996-01-01

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...... the chloride content in a reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORM/SORM-analysis....

  20. On specification of initial conditions in turbulence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollin, Bertrand [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Recent research has shown that initial conditions have a significant influence on the evolution of a flow towards turbulence. This important finding offers a unique opportunity for turbulence control, but also raises the question of how to properly specify initial conditions in turbulence models. We study this problem in the context of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is an interfacial fluid instability that leads to turbulence and turbulent mixing. It occurs when a light fluid is accelerated in to a heavy fluid because of misalignment between density and pressure gradients. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability plays a key role in a wide variety of natural and man-made flows ranging from supernovae to the implosion phase of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). Our approach consists of providing the turbulence models with a predicted profile of its key variables at the appropriate time in accordance to the initial conditions of the problem.

  1. Wind laws for shockless initialization. [numerical forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Shkoller, B.

    1976-01-01

    A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

  2. The Swarm Initial Field Model for the 2014 geomagnetic field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    agreement (up to at least degree 60) with recent field models derived from CHAMP data, providing an initial validation of the quality of the Swarm magnetic measurements. Use of gradient data improves the determination of both the static field and its secular variation, with the mean misfit for East...

  3. Initiation model for intergranular stress corrosion cracking in BWR pipes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hishida, Mamoru; Kawakubo, Takashi; Nakagawa, Yuji; Arii, Mitsuru.

    1981-01-01

    Discussions were made on the keys of intergranular stress corrosion cracking of austenitic stainless steel in high-temperature water in laboratories and stress corrosion cracking incidents in operating plants. Based on these discussions, a model was set up of intergranular stress corrosion cracking initiation in BWR pipes. Regarding the model, it was presumed that the intergranular stress corrosion cracking initiates during start up periods whenever heat-affected zones in welded pipes are highly sensitized and suffer dynamic strain in transient water containing dissolved oxygen. A series of BWR start up simulation tests were made by using a flowing autoclave system with slow strain rate test equipment. Validity of the model was confirmed through the test results. (author)

  4. The Swarm Initial Field Model for the 2014 Geomagnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent; Finlay, Christopher C.; Beggan, Ciaran; Chulliat, Arnaud; Sabaka, Terence J.; Floberghagen, Rune; Friis-Christensen, Eigil; Haagmans, Roger

    2015-01-01

    Data from the first year of ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive the Swarm Initial Field Model (SIFM), a new model of the Earth's magnetic field and its time variation. In addition to the conventional magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites, explicit advantage is taken of the constellation aspect by including east-west magnetic intensity gradient information from the lower satellite pair. Along-track differences in magnetic intensity provide further information concerning the north-south gradient. The SIFM static field shows excellent agreement (up to at least degree 60) with recent field models derived from CHAMP data, providing an initial validation of the quality of the Swarm magnetic measurements. Use of gradient data improves the determination of both the static field and its secular variation, with the mean misfit for east-west intensity differences between the lower satellite pair being only 0.12 nT.

  5. Application of the cognitive therapy model to initial crisis assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Patricia; Palmer, Christine

    2003-03-01

    This article provides a background to the development of cognitive therapy and cognitive therapeutic skills with a specific focus on the treatment of a depressive episode. It discusses the utility of cognitive therapeutic strategies to the model of crisis theory and initial crisis assessment currently used by the Community Assessment & Treatment Team of Waitemata District Health Board on the North Shore of Auckland, New Zealand. A brief background to cognitive therapy is provided, followed by a comprehensive example of the use of the Socratic questioning method in guiding collaborative assessment and treatment of suicidality by nurses during the initial crisis assessment.

  6. Learning reliable manipulation strategies without initial physical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Alan D.; Mason, Matthew T.; Mitchell, Tom M.

    1990-01-01

    A description is given of a robot, possessing limited sensory and effectory capabilities but no initial model of the effects of its actions on the world, that acquires such a model through exploration, practice, and observation. By acquiring an increasingly correct model of its actions, it generates increasingly successful plans to achieve its goals. In an apparently nondeterministic world, achieving reliability requires the identification of reliable actions and a preference for using such actions. Furthermore, by selecting its training actions carefully, the robot can significantly improve its learning rate.

  7. Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Aschwanden

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations, is a viable method of assessing model performance. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the thermal and dynamical states (i.e. the distribution of internal energy and momentum can be misrepresented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. In particular we identify rates of change of spatially dense observations as preferred validation metrics. Hindcasting enables a qualitative assessment of model performance relative to observed rates of change. It thereby reduces the number of admissible initial states more rigorously than validation efforts that do not take advantage of observed rates of change.

  8. Fracture initiation associated with chemical degradation: observation and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byoungho Choi; Zhenwen Zhou; Chudnovsky, Alexander [Illinois Univ., Dept. of Civil and Materials Engineering (M/C 246), Chicago, IL (United States); Stivala, Salvatore S. [Stevens Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Hoboken, NJ (United States); Sehanobish, Kalyan; Bosnyak, Clive P. [Dow Chemical Co., Freeport, TX (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The fracture initiation in engineering thermoplastics resulting from chemical degradation is usually observed in the form of a microcrack network within a surface layer of degraded polymer exposed to a combined action of mechanical stresses and chemically aggressive environment. Degradation of polymers is usually manifested in a reduction of molecular weight, increase of crystallinity in semi crystalline polymers, increase of material density, a subtle increase in yield strength, and a dramatic reduction in toughness. An increase in material density, i.e., shrinkage of the degraded layer is constrained by adjacent unchanged material results in a buildup of tensile stress within the degraded layer and compressive stress in the adjacent unchanged material due to increasing incompatibility between the two. These stresses are an addition to preexisting manufacturing and service stresses. At a certain level of degradation, a combination of toughness reduction and increase of tensile stress result in fracture initiation. A quantitative model of the described above processes is presented in these work. For specificity, the internally pressurized plastic pipes that transport a fluid containing a chemically aggressive (oxidizing) agent is used as the model of fracture initiation. Experimental observations of material density and toughness dependence on degradation reported elsewhere are employed in the model. An equation for determination of a critical level of degradation corresponding to the offset of fracture is constructed. The critical level of degradation for fracture initiation depends on the rates of toughness deterioration and build-up of the degradation related stresses as well as on the manufacturing and service stresses. A method for evaluation of the time interval prior to fracture initiation is also formulated. (Author)

  9. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  10. Individual Subjective Initiative Merge Model Based on Cellular Automaton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-Jie Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The merge control models proposed for work zones are classified into two types (Hard Control Merge (HCM model and Soft Control Merge (SCM model according to their own control intensity and are compared with a new model, called Individual Subjective Initiative Merge (ISIM model, which is based on the linear lane-changing probability strategy in the merging area. The attention of this paper is paid to the positive impact of the individual subjective initiative for the whole traffic system. Three models (ISIM, HCM, and SCM are established and compared with each other by two order parameters, that is, system output and average vehicle travel time. Finally, numerical results show that both ISIM and SCM perform better than HCM. Compared with SCM, the output of ISIM is 20 vehicles per hour higher under the symmetric input condition and is more stable under the asymmetric input condition. Meanwhile, the average travel time of ISIM is 2000 time steps less under the oversaturated input condition.

  11. NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing

    2013-10-01

    The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests

  12. Modeling subsurface stormflow initiation in low-relief landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopp, Luisa; Vaché, Kellie B.; Rhett Jackson, C.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

    2015-04-01

    Shallow lateral subsurface flow as a runoff generating mechanism at the hillslope scale has mostly been studied in steeper terrain with typical hillside angles of 10 - 45 degrees. These studies have shown that subsurface stormflow is often initiated at the interface between a permeable upper soil layer and a lower conductivity impeding layer, e.g. a B horizon or bedrock. Many studies have identified thresholds of event size and soil moisture states that need to be exceeded before subsurface stormflow is initiated. However, subsurface stormflow generation on low-relief hillslopes has been much less studied. Here we present a modeling study that investigates the initiation of subsurface stormflow on low-relief hillslopes in the Upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA. Hillslopes in this region typically have slope angles of 2-5 degrees. Topsoils are sandy, underlain by a low-conductivity sandy clay loam Bt horizon. Subsurface stormflow has only been intercepted occasionally in a 120 m long trench, and often subsurface flow was not well correlated with stream signals, suggesting a disconnect between subsurface flow on the hillslopes and stream flow. We therefore used a hydrologic model to better understand which conditions promote the initiation of subsurface flow in this landscape, addressing following questions: Is there a threshold event size and soil moisture state for producing lateral subsurface flow? What role does the spatial pattern of depth to the impeding clay layer play for subsurface stormflow dynamics? We reproduced a section of a hillslope, for which high-resolution topographic data and depth to clay measurements were available, in the hydrologic model HYDRUS-3D. Soil hydraulic parameters were based on experimentally-derived data. The threshold analysis was first performed using hourly climate data records for 2009-2010 from the study site to drive the simulation. For this period also trench measurements of subsurface flow were available. In addition

  13. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence

  14. Modelling of the initial stage of the surface discharge development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibalov, V.; Pietsch, G.

    1998-01-01

    Computer modelling of the initial stage of the surface discharge was performed by solving numerically the coupled continuity, the Poisson and Townsend ionization equations and taking into account the ionization, attachment and detachment processes. The potential distribution at the dielectric surface and at the boundaries which surround the integration region have been calculated with the charge-image method in a 3D approach. In order to eliminate numerical diffusion effects, the solution of the continuity equation was corrected using a flux correction transport routine. At the positive voltage the development of the discharge channel is determined mainly by the shape of the electrode tip. At the negative voltage the following phases of the discharge may be distinguished: the initial phase, the cathode directed streamer phase resulting in the cathode layer formation, and the propagating phase. The physical processes governing each discharge phase are described in detail. (J.U.)

  15. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  16. Multi-scale modelling of fatigue microcrack initiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Jia

    2013-01-01

    The thesis aims to improve the understanding and simulation of microcrack initiation induced by thermal fatigue and the induced crack network formation. The polycrystalline simulations allow the prediction of both macroscopic cyclic behavior and mean grain distributions of stress, plastic strain and number of cycles to microcrack initiation. Various aggregate meshes have been used, from the simplest ones using cubic grains up to a real 3D aggregate built thanks to many re-polishing and EBSD measurement sequences (Institut P', Poitiers). Tension-compression, cyclic shear and equi-biaxial loadings, with and without mean strain, have been considered. All the predictions are in qualitative agreement with many experimental observations obtained at various scales. The single crystal simulations allow us to predict the effect of slip localization in thin persistent slip bands (PSBs). Inside PSBs, vacancies are produced and annihilated because of cyclic dislocation interactions and may diffuse towards the surrounding matrix. This induces extrusion growth at the free surface of PSBs. Microcracking is modelled by cohesive zones located along the PSB - matrix interfaces. The predicted extrusion rates and numbers of cycles to microcrack initiation are in fair agreement with numerous experimental data concerning single and polycrystals, copper and 316L(N), under either air or inert environment. (author) [fr

  17. NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

    2013-10-01

    [1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis

  18. Modelling vacuum arcs : from plasma initiation to surface interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timko, H.

    2011-01-01

    A better understanding of vacuum arcs is desirable in many of today's 'big science' projects including linear colliders, fusion devices, and satellite systems. For the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) design, radio-frequency (RF) breakdowns occurring in accelerating cavities influence efficiency optimisation and cost reduction issues. Studying vacuum arcs both theoretically as well as experimentally under well-defined and reproducible direct-current (DC) conditions is the first step towards exploring RF breakdowns. In this thesis, we have studied Cu DC vacuum arcs with a combination of experiments, a particle-in-cell (PIC) model of the arc plasma, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the subsequent surface damaging mechanism. We have also developed the 2D Arc-PIC code and the physics model incorporated in it, especially for the purpose of modelling the plasma initiation in vacuum arcs. Assuming the presence of a field emitter at the cathode initially, we have identified the conditions for plasma formation and have studied the transitions from field emission stage to a fully developed arc. The 'footing' of the plasma is the cathode spot that supplies the arc continuously with particles; the high-density core of the plasma is located above this cathode spot. Our results have shown that once an arc plasma is initiated, and as long as energy is available, the arc is self-maintaining due to the plasma sheath that ensures enhanced field emission and sputtering.The plasma model can already give an estimate on how the time-to-breakdown changes with the neutral evaporation rate, which is yet to be determined by atomistic simulations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, we have also performed a code-to-code comparison. The reproducibility of plasma behaviour and time-to-breakdown with independent codes increased confidence in the results presented here. Our MD simulations identified high-flux, high-energy ion bombardment as a possible mechanism forming the early

  19. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Rivas, D.; Hallen, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion

  20. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 Havana (Cuba); Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)]. E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Alfonso, L. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Rivas, D. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)

    2007-02-15

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion.

  1. Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán

    2018-01-01

    A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

  2. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori

    2015-04-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km2 catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin-up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin-up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin-up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics.

  3. A Process Model of Partnership Evolution Around New IT Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kestilä, Timo; Salmivalli, Lauri; Salmela, Hannu; Vahtera, Annukka

    Prior research on inter-organizational information systems has focused primarily on dyadic network relationships, where agreements about information exchange are made between two organizations. The focus of this research is on the processes through which IT decisions are made within larger inter-organizational networks with several network parties. The research draws from network theories in organization science to identify three alternative mechanisms for making network level commitments: contracts, rules and values. In addition, theoretical concepts are searched from dynamic network models, which identify different cycles and stages in network evolution. The empirical research was conducted in two networks. The first one comprises of four municipalities which began collaboration in the deployment of IT in early childhood education (ECE). The second network involves a case where several organizations, both private and public, initiated a joint effort to implement a national level electronic prescription system (EPS). The frameworks and concepts drawn from organizational theories are used to explain success of the first case and the failure of the latter case. The paper contributes to prior IOS research by providing a new theory-based framework for the analysis of early stages of building organizational networks around innovative IT initiatives.

  4. Integrated modeling of natural and human systems - problems and initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J.; Gunnink, J.; Hughes, A.; Moore, R. V.; Peach, D.

    2009-12-01

    's system, e.g. the flow of groundwater to an abstraction borehole or the availability of water for irrigation. Particular problems arise when model data from two or more disciplines are incompatible in terms of data formats, scientific concepts or language. Other barriers include the cultural segregation within and between science disciplines as well as impediments to data exchange due to ownership and copyright restrictions. OpenMI and GeoSciML are initiatives that are trying to overcome these barriers by building international communities that share vocabularies and data formats. This paper will give examples of the successful merging of geological and hydrological models from the UK and the Netherlands and will introduce the vision of an open Environmental Modelling Platform which aims to link data, knowledge and concepts seamlessly to numerical process models. Last but not least there is an urgent need to create a Subsurface Management System akin to a Geographic Information System in which all results of subsurface modelling can be visualised and analysed in an integrated manner.

  5. Comparison of different initiation protocols in the resistant hepatocyte model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espandiari, Parvaneh; Robertson, Larry W.; Srinivasan, Cidambi; Glauert, Howard P.

    2005-01-01

    Several models in rat liver have been developed to study multistage carcinogenesis, including the Solt-Farber resistant hepatocyte model. In this model, initiation consists of either a necrogenic dose of a hepatocarcinogen or a non-necrogenic dose in conjunction with partial hepatectomy (PH). As an alternative to PH, we investigated two different procedures: fasting for 96 h followed by refeeding, or the use of one-day-old neonates. Male Fisher 344 rats were injected p.o. with diethylnitrosamine (DEN) (0, 20, or 100 mg/kg) 24 h after refeeding or PH (controls received DEN alone with no proliferative stimulus). For the neonatal group, male and female Fisher 344 rats were treated with DEN (0 or 20 mg/kg, i.p.) at one day of age. All initiated animals were treated at the same age (11 weeks) with the following selection agents: three daily doses of 2-acetylaminofluorene (AAF) (30 mg/kg), followed by a single dose of carbon tetrachloride (2 ml/kg), followed by three additional daily treatments of AAF (30 mg/kg). Rats were euthanized 2 weeks after the last AAF injection. The PH, neonatal male, and neonatal female groups receiving DEN developed more γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT)-positive foci per cubic centimeter and foci per liver as compared to untreated rats receiving the same proliferative stimulus, whereas the fasting/refeeding group and the group receiving no proliferative stimulus did not. All DEN-treated groups receiving one of the proliferative stimuli had more foci per cubic centimeter than the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus. The volume fractions of GGT-positive foci in the PH/DEN and neonatal male/DEN groups were higher than those of both the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus and the groups receiving the same proliferative stimulus without DEN. In neonatal females-receiving DEN, the volume fraction was not different from either neonatal females not receiving DEN or DEN-treated rats receiving no proliferative

  6. Modeling initial contact dynamics during ambulation with dynamic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Andrew R; Wang, Mei; Smith, Peter A; Harris, Gerald F

    2007-04-01

    Ankle-foot orthoses are frequently used interventions to correct pathological gait. Their effects on the kinematics and kinetics of the proximal joints are of great interest when prescribing ankle-foot orthoses to specific patient groups. Mathematical Dynamic Model (MADYMO) is developed to simulate motor vehicle crash situations and analyze tissue injuries of the occupants based multibody dynamic theories. Joint kinetics output from an inverse model were perturbed and input to the forward model to examine the effects of changes in the internal sagittal ankle moment on knee and hip kinematics following heel strike. Increasing the internal ankle moment (augmentation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus contraction) produced less pronounced changes in kinematic results at the hip, knee and ankle than decreasing the moment (attenuation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus relaxation). Altering the internal ankle moment produced two distinctly different kinematic curve morphologies at the hip. Decreased internal ankle moments increased hip flexion, peaking at roughly 8% of the gait cycle. Increasing internal ankle moments decreased hip flexion to a lesser degree, and approached normal at the same point in the gait cycle. Increasing the internal ankle moment produced relatively small, well-behaved extension-biased kinematic results at the knee. Decreasing the internal ankle moment produced more substantial changes in knee kinematics towards flexion that increased with perturbation magnitude. Curve morphologies were similar to those at the hip. Immediately following heel strike, kinematic results at the ankle showed movement in the direction of the internal moment perturbation. Increased internal moments resulted in kinematic patterns that rapidly approach normal after initial differences. When the internal ankle moment was decreased, differences from normal were much greater and did not rapidly decrease. This study shows that MADYMO can be successfully applied to accomplish forward

  7. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  8. Modeling of SCC initiation and propagation mechanisms in BWR environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmeister, Hans, E-mail: Hans.Hoffmeister@hsu-hh.de [Institute for Failure Analysis and Failure Prevention ISSV e.V., c/o Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces, D-22039 Hamburg (Germany); Klein, Oliver [Institute for Failure Analysis and Failure Prevention ISSV e.V., c/o Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces, D-22039 Hamburg (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We show that SSC in BWR environments includes anodic crack propagation and hydrogen assisted cracking. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Hydrogen cracking is triggered by crack tip acidification following local impurity accumulations and subsequent phase precipitations. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We calculate effects of pH, chlorides, potentials and stress on crack SCC growth rates at 288 Degree-Sign C. - Abstract: During operation of mainly BWRs' (Boiling Water Reactors) excursions from recommended water chemistries may provide favorite conditions for stress corrosion cracking (SCC). Maximum levels for chloride and sulfate ion contents for avoiding local corrosion are therefore given in respective water specifications. In a previously published deterministic 288 Degree-Sign C - corrosion model for Nickel as a main alloying element of BWR components it was demonstrated that, as a theoretically worst case, bulk water chloride levels as low as 30 ppb provide local chloride ion accumulation, dissolution of passivating nickel oxide and precipitation of nickel chlorides followed by subsequent local acidification. In an extension of the above model to SCC the following work shows that, in a first step, local anodic path corrosion with subsequent oxide breakdown, chloride salt formation and acidification at 288 Degree-Sign C would establish local cathodic reduction of accumulated hydrogen ions inside the crack tip fluid. In a second step, local hydrogen reduction charges and increasing local crack tip strains from increasing crack lengths at given global stresses are time stepwise calculated and related to experimentally determined crack critical cathodic hydrogen charges and fracture strains taken from small scale SSRT tensile tests pieces. As a result, at local hydrogen equilibrium potentials higher than those of nickel in the crack tip solution, hydrogen ion reduction initiates hydrogen crack propagation that is enhanced with

  9. Initial layer theory and model equations of Volterra type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bijura, Angelina M.

    2003-10-01

    It is demonstrated here that there exist initial layers to singularly perturbed Volterra equations whose thicknesses are not of order of magnitude of 0(ε), ε → 0. It is also shown that the initial layer theory is extremely useful because it allows one to construct the approximate solution to an equation, which is almost identical to the exact solution. (author)

  10. General MACOS Interface for Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigrist, Norbert; Basinger, Scott A.; Redding, David C.

    2012-01-01

    The General MACOS Interface (GMI) for Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems (MACOS) enables the use of MATLAB as a front-end for JPL s critical optical modeling package, MACOS. MACOS is JPL s in-house optical modeling software, which has proven to be a superb tool for advanced systems engineering of optical systems. GMI, coupled with MACOS, allows for seamless interfacing with modeling tools from other disciplines to make possible integration of dynamics, structures, and thermal models with the addition of control systems for deformable optics and other actuated optics. This software package is designed as a tool for analysts to quickly and easily use MACOS without needing to be an expert at programming MACOS. The strength of MACOS is its ability to interface with various modeling/development platforms, allowing evaluation of system performance with thermal, mechanical, and optical modeling parameter variations. GMI provides an improved means for accessing selected key MACOS functionalities. The main objective of GMI is to marry the vast mathematical and graphical capabilities of MATLAB with the powerful optical analysis engine of MACOS, thereby providing a useful tool to anyone who can program in MATLAB. GMI also improves modeling efficiency by eliminating the need to write an interface function for each task/project, reducing error sources, speeding up user/modeling tasks, and making MACOS well suited for fast prototyping.

  11. The new Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database algorithms for AMSR2 and GMI: exploitation of the GPM observational database for operational applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinzia Marra, Anna; Casella, Daniele; Martins Costa do Amaral, Lia; Sanò, Paolo; Dietrich, Stefano; Panegrossi, Giulia

    2017-04-01

    Two new precipitation retrieval algorithms for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and for the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) are presented. The algorithms are based on the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) Bayesian approach and represent an evolution of the previous version applied to Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) observations, and used operationally within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF). These new products present as main innovation the use of an extended database entirely empirical, derived from coincident radar and radiometer observations from the NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory (GPM-CO) (Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar-DPR and GMI). The other new aspects are: 1) a new rain-no-rain screening approach; 2) the use of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) both in the screening approach, and in the Bayesian algorithm; 2) the use of new meteorological and environmental ancillary variables to categorize the database and mitigate the problem of non-uniqueness of the retrieval solution; 3) the development and implementations of specific modules for computational time minimization. The CDRD algorithms for AMSR2 and GMI are able to handle an extremely large observational database available from GPM-CO and provide the rainfall estimate with minimum latency, making them suitable for near-real time hydrological and operational applications. As far as CDRD for AMSR2, a verification study over Italy using ground-based radar data and over the MSG full disk area using coincident GPM-CO/AMSR2 observations has been carried out. Results show remarkable AMSR2 capabilities for rainfall rate (RR) retrieval over ocean (for RR > 0.25 mm/h), good capabilities over vegetated land (for RR > 1 mm/h), while for coastal areas the results are less certain. Comparisons with NASA GPM products, and with

  12. A model of frontal polymerization using complex initiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. Goldfeder

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Frontal polymerization is a process in which a spatially localized reaction zone propagates into a monomer, converting it into a polymer. In the simplest case of free-radical polymerization, a mixture of monomer and initiator is placed in a test tube. A reaction is then initiated at one end of the tube. Over time, a self-sustained thermal wave, in which chemical conversion occurs, is produced. This phenomenon is possible because of the highly exothermic nature of the polymerization reactions.

  13. Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

    2004-05-01

    Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

  14. Longitudinal Modeling of Adolescent Normative Beliefs and Substance Initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillehoj, Catherine J.; Trudeau, Linda; Spoth, Richard

    2005-01-01

    Pstudy investigated the effects of baseline levels of academic achievement and longitudinal trends in normative beliefs on adolescent substance initiation across a 42-month time period. Participants were 272 rural adolescents who were an average of 12.3 years old at the baseline assessment. Academic achievement positively predicted the intercept…

  15. New Models for Initial Teacher Education in Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibble, Bob

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the author responds to the recent article by Lynne Bianchi commenting on the Donaldson report, "Teaching Scotland's future" (Donaldson, 2011). He agrees that the Donaldson report has indeed been a catalyst to drive change across the entire landscape of initial teacher education (ITE) in Scotland. In fact, not only ITE:…

  16. Experimental evidence and physical models of fatigue crack initiation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Polák, Jaroslav; Man, Jiří

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 91, OCT (2016), s. 294-303 ISSN 0142-1123 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-23652S; GA ČR GA13-32665S; GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0068 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : Crack initiation * Persistent slip band * Point defects * Extrusions * Intrusions Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 2.899, year: 2016

  17. Initial growth of phytoplankton in turbid estuaries: a simple model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Swart, H.E.; Schuttelaars, H.; Talke, S.A.

    2009-01-01

    An idealised model is presented and analysed to gain more fundamental understanding about the dynamics of phytoplankton blooms in well-mixed, suspended sediment dominated estuaries. The model describes the behaviour of subtidal currents, suspended sediments, nutrients and phytoplankton in a channel

  18. VISIONS2 Learning for Life Initiative. Workplace Literacy Implementation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Chris L.; Ferguson, Susan E.; Taylor, Mary Lou

    This document presents a model for implementing workplace literacy education that focuses on giving front-line workers or first-line workers basic skills instruction and an appreciation for lifelong learning. The introduction presents background information on the model, which was developed during a partnership between a technical college and an…

  19. Modeling Enterprise Authorization: A Unified Metamodel and Initial Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matus Korman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Authorization and its enforcement, access control, have stood at the beginning of the art and science of information security, and remain being crucial pillar of security in the information technology (IT and enterprises operations. Dozens of different models of access control have been proposed. Although Enterprise Architecture as the discipline strives to support the management of IT, support for modeling access policies in enterprises is often lacking, both in terms of supporting the variety of individual models of access control nowadays used, and in terms of providing a unified ontology capable of flexibly expressing access policies for all or the most of the models. This study summarizes a number of existing models of access control, proposes a unified metamodel mapped to ArchiMate, and illustrates its use on a selection of example scenarios and two business cases.

  20. Initialization and Setup of the Coastal Model Test Bed: STWAVE

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    STWAVE by A. Spicer Bak, Tyler Hesser, Jane Smith, and Mary Bryant PURPOSE: The purpose of this Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical...weaknesses of numerical hydrodynamic and morphologic models using high-resolution temporal and spatial measurements at the Coastal and Hydraulics ... reduce boundary effects approaching the cross-shore array from the north. The construction of the modeled bathymetry begins by using a portion of

  1. Initial geomagnetic field model from Magsat vector data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langel, R. A.; Mead, G. D.; Lancaster, E. R.; Estes, R. H.; Fabiano, E. B.

    1980-01-01

    Magsat data from the magnetically quiet days of November 5-6, 1979, were used to derive a thirteenth degree and order spherical harmonic geomagnetic field model, MGST(6/80). The model utilized both scalar and high-accuracy vector data and fit that data with root-mean-square deviations of 8.2, 6.9, 7.6 and 7.4 nT for the scalar magnitude, B(r), B(theta), and B(phi), respectively. The model includes the three first-order coefficients of the external field. Comparison with averaged Dst indicates that zero Dst corresponds with 25 nT of horizontal field from external sources. When compared with earlier models, the earth's dipole moment continues to decrease at a rate of about 26 nT/yr. Evaluation of earlier models with Magsat data shows that the scalar field at the Magsat epoch is best predicted by the POGO(2/72) model but that the WC80, AWC/75 and IGS/75 are better for predicting vector fields.

  2. Modeling initiation of Ewing sarcoma in human neural crest cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia von Levetzow

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Ewing sarcoma family tumors (ESFT are aggressive bone and soft tissue tumors that express EWS-ETS fusion genes as driver mutations. Although the histogenesis of ESFT is controversial, mesenchymal (MSC and/or neural crest (NCSC stem cells have been implicated as cells of origin. For the current study we evaluated the consequences of EWS-FLI1 expression in human embryonic stem cell-derived NCSC (hNCSC. Ectopic expression of EWS-FLI1 in undifferentiated hNCSC and their neuro-mesenchymal stem cell (hNC-MSC progeny was readily tolerated and led to altered expression of both well established as well as novel EWS-FLI1 target genes. Importantly, whole genome expression profiling studies revealed that the molecular signature of established ESFT is more similar to hNCSC than any other normal tissue, including MSC, indicating that maintenance or reactivation of the NCSC program is a feature of ESFT pathogenesis. Consistent with this hypothesis, EWS-FLI1 induced hNCSC genes as well as the polycomb proteins BMI-1 and EZH2 in hNC-MSC. In addition, up-regulation of BMI-1 was associated with avoidance of cellular senescence and reversible silencing of p16. Together these studies confirm that, unlike terminally differentiated cells but consistent with bone marrow-derived MSC, NCSC tolerate expression of EWS-FLI1 and ectopic expression of the oncogene initiates transition to an ESFT-like state. In addition, to our knowledge this is the first demonstration that EWS-FLI1-mediated induction of BMI-1 and epigenetic silencing of p16 might be critical early initiating events in ESFT tumorigenesis.

  3. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  4. Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

    2017-11-01

    Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

  5. Simple model of electron beam initiated dielectric breakdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, B.L.; Daniell, R.E.; Delmer, T.N.

    1985-01-01

    A steady state model that describes the internal charge distribution of a planar dielectric sample exposed to a uniform electron beam was developed. The model includes the effects of charge deposition and ionization of the beam, separate trap-modulated mobilities for electrons and holes, electron-hole recombination, and pair production by drifting thermal electrons. If the incident beam current is greater than a certain critical value (which depends on sample thickness as well as other sample properties), the steady state solution is non-physical

  6. Multidimensional Numerical Modeling of Surges Over Initially Dry Land

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berger, R

    2004-01-01

    .... The first test case is for a straight flume and the second contains a reservoir and a horseshoe channel section. It is important that the model match the timing of the surge as well as the height In both cases the ADH compared closely with the flume results.

  7. Experimental and numerical modeling of shrub crown fire initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watcharapong Tachajapong; Jesse Lozano; Shakar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; David Weise

    2009-01-01

    The transition of fire from dry surface fuels to wet shrub crown fuels was studied using laboratory experiments and a simple physical model to gain a better understanding of the transition process. In the experiments, we investigated the effects of varying vertical distances between surface and crown fuels (crown base height), and of the wind speed on crown fire...

  8. Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröger, Jürgen; Pohlmann, Holger; Sienz, Frank; Marotzke, Jochem; Baehr, Johanna; Köhl, Armin; Modali, Kameswarrao; Polkova, Iuliia; Stammer, Detlef; Vamborg, Freja S. E.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

    2017-12-01

    Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow.

  9. Structural Equation Modeling with Lisrel: An Initial Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naresh K Malhotra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available LISREL is considered one of the most robust software packages for Structural Equation Modeling with covariance matrices, while it is also considered complex and difficult to use. In this special issue of the Brazilian Journal of Marketing, we aim to present the main functions of LISREL, its features and, through a didactic example, reduce the perceived difficulty of using it. We also provide helpful guidelines to properly using this technique.

  10. Structural Equation Modeling with Lisrel: An Initial Vision

    OpenAIRE

    Naresh K Malhotra; Evandro Luiz Lopes; Ricardo Teixeira Veiga

    2014-01-01

    LISREL is considered one of the most robust software packages for Structural Equation Modeling with covariance matrices, while it is also considered complex and difficult to use. In this special issue of the Brazilian Journal of Marketing, we aim to present the main functions of LISREL, its features and, through a didactic example, reduce the perceived difficulty of using it. We also provide helpful guidelines to properly using this technique.

  11. Alternative DFN model based on initial site investigations at Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darcel, C. [Itasca Consultants, Ecully (France); Davy, S.A.P.; Bour, O.; Dreuzy, J.R. de [Geosciences, Rennes (France)

    2004-12-01

    In this report, we provide a first-order analysis of the fracture network at the Simpevarp site. The first order model is the fracture distribution function, noted, fdf, which provides the number of fractures having a given orientation and length, and belonging to a given volume of observation. The first-order distribution model does not describe higher-order correlation between fracture parameters, such as a possible dependency of fracture length distribution with orientations. We also check that most of the information is contained in this 1st-order distribution model, and that dividing the fracture networks into different sets do not bring a better statistical description. The fracture distribution function contains 3 main distributions: the probability distribution of fracture orientations, the dependency on the size of the sampling domain that may exhibit non-trivial scaling in case of fractal correlations, and the fracture-length density distribution, which appears to be well fitted by a power law. The main scaling parameters are the fractal dimension and the power-law exponent of the fracture length distribution. The former was found to be about equal to the embedding dimension, meaning that fractal correlations are weak and can be neglected in the DFN model. The latter depends on geology, that is either lithology or grain size, with values that ranges from 3.2 for granite-like outcrops to 4 for diorite or monzodiorite outcrops, as well as for the large-scale lineament maps. When analyzing the consistency of the different datasets (boreholes, outcrops, lineament maps), we found that two different DFNs can be described: the first one is derived from the fdf of the outcrop with fine-grained size lithology, and is valid across all scales investigated in this study, from the highly-fractured cores to large-scale maps; the second one is derived from the fdf of the outcrops with coarse-grained size lithology, and is found consistent with cores that present the

  12. Modeling of Future Initial Teacher of Foreign Language Training, Using Situation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryana М. Sidun

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discloses the content of modeling of future initial teacher of foreign language, using situation analysis, defines the stages of modeling during the professional competence formation of future teacher of foreign language: preparatory, analytical and executive.

  13. Evaluating model parameterizations of submicron aerosol scattering and absorption with in situ data from ARCTAS 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Alvarado

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9-02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT, and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1 package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1 to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10–23 %, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GC-RT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass

  14. A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Berton Lee; Taylor, Jonathan G.; Burkardt, Nina; Ponds, Phadrea D.

    1998-01-01

    How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

  15. Exploring the Process of Implementing Healthy Workplace Initiatives: Mapping to Kotter's Leading Change Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Stacie; Pescud, Melanie; Waterworth, Pippa; Shilton, Trevor; Roche, Dee; Ledger, Melissa; Slevin, Terry; Rosenberg, Michael

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use Kotter's leading change model to explore the implementation of workplace health and wellbeing initiatives. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 31 workplace representatives with a healthy workplace initiative. None of the workplaces used a formal change management model when implementing their healthy workplace initiatives. Not all of the steps in Kotter model were considered necessary and the order of the steps was challenged. For example, interviewees perceived that communicating the vision, developing the vision, and creating a guiding coalition were integral parts of the process, although there was less emphasis on the importance of creating a sense of urgency and consolidating change. Although none of the workplaces reported using a formal organizational change model when implementing their healthy workplace initiatives, there did appear to be perceived merit in using the steps in Kotter's model.

  16. What it takes to get proactive: An integrative multilevel model of the antecedents of personal initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Ying; Liao, Hui; Raub, Steffen; Han, Joo Hun

    2016-05-01

    Building upon and extending Parker, Bindl, and Strauss's (2010) theory of proactive motivation, we develop an integrated, multilevel model to examine how contextual factors shape employees' proactive motivational states and, through these proactive motivational states, influence their personal initiative behavior. Using data from a sample of hotels collected from 3 sources and over 2 time periods, we show that establishment-level initiative-enhancing human resource management (HRM) systems were positively related to departmental initiative climate, which was positively related to employee personal initiative through employee role-breadth self-efficacy. Further, department-level empowering leadership was positively related to initiative climate only when initiative-enhancing HRM systems were low. These findings offer interesting implications for research on personal initiative and for the management of employee proactivity in organizations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2018-03-01

    Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

  18. Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Cullather, R. I.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Bitz, C. M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed -1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

  19. Initial and final estimates of the Bilinear seasonal time series model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In getting the estimates of the parameters of this model special attention was paid to the problem of having good initial estimates as it is proposed that with good initial values of the parameters the estimates obtaining by the Newton-Raphson iterative technique usually not only converge but also are good estimates.

  20. Study of n-Butyl Acrylate Self-Initiation Reaction Experimentally and via Macroscopic Mechanistic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Arabi Shamsabadi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an experimental study of the self-initiation reaction of n-butyl acrylate (n-BA in free-radical polymerization. For the first time, the frequency factor and activation energy of the monomer self-initiation reaction are estimated from measurements of n-BA conversion in free-radical homo-polymerization initiated only by the monomer. The estimation was carried out using a macroscopic mechanistic mathematical model of the reactor. In addition to already-known reactions that contribute to the polymerization, the model considers a n-BA self-initiation reaction mechanism that is based on our previous electronic-level first-principles theoretical study of the self-initiation reaction. Reaction rate equations are derived using the method of moments. The reaction-rate parameter estimates obtained from conversion measurements agree well with estimates obtained via our purely-theoretical quantum chemical calculations.

  1. NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carcione, Brian; Wood, Lance; Maloney, Joseph; Estupinan, Jeral; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Blottman, Peter; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

  2. Should tsunami models use a nonzero initial condition for horizontal velocity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, G.; Lotto, G. C.; Dunham, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require two initial conditions: one on sea surface height and another on depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). We run several full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor, using both idealized structures and a more realistic Tohoku structure. Substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean, but almost all momentum is carried away in the form of ocean acoustic waves. We compare tsunami propagation in each full-physics simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial conditions. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves (from ocean acoustic and seismic waves) at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami

  3. Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Wu

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.

  4. Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause transport in global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Hongyu [National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA (United States); Considine, David B. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States); Horowitz, Larry W. [NOAA Geophysical Fluid and Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); and others

    2016-07-01

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 ({sup 7}Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric {sup 7}Be distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II{sup '} GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere and/or lower stratosphere (UT/LS) {sup 7}Be climatology constructed from ∝ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as climatological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the {sup 7}Be simulations with observationally derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at mid-latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II{sup '} meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate {sup 7}Be deposition fluxes at mid-latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II{sup '}), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of {sup 7}Be corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on {sup 7}Be simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We conclude that the observational constraints for {sup 7}Be and observed {sup 7}Be total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.

  5. A harmonic transition state theory model for defect initiation in crystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delph, T J; Cao, P; Park, H S; Zimmerman, J A

    2013-01-01

    We outline here a model for the initiation of defects in crystals based upon harmonic transition state theory (hTST). This model combines a previously developed model for zero-temperature defect initiation with a multi-dimensional hTST model that is capable of accurately predicting the effects of temperature and loading rate upon defect initiation. The model has several features that set it apart from previous efforts along these lines, most notably a straightforward method of determining the energy barrier between adjacent equilibrium states that does not depend upon a priori information concerning the nature of the defect. We apply the model to two examples, triaxial stretching of a perfect fcc crystal and nanoindentation of a gold substrate. Very good agreement is found between the predictions of the model and independent molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Among other things, the model predicts a strong dependence of the defect initiation behavior upon the loading parameter. A very attractive feature of this model is that it is valid for arbitrarily slow loading rates, in particular loading rates achievable in the laboratory, and suffers from none of the limitations in this regard inherent in MD simulations. (paper)

  6. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL INITIATION OF PROJECT IN A FORM OF MARKOV CHAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Вікторівна КОЛЕСНІКОВА

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The model of the initiation of projects which reproduces a fragment of the general scheme of interaction between the main entities in the project initiation phase is created. Determined that the project initiation through communication links between the four main entities: projects team, environment, the project itself and the customer. The result of the initiation of projects in the emerging communications referred to objects in the design phase through consistency requirements of stakeholders and the adoption of the basic concepts of projects, goal-projects, project planning, evaluation requirements of specialization and competence required for the formation of the project team. This Markov chain is part of the control circuit that includes elements such as the temporary organizational structure of the project design, project team, customer, and environment project. It is shown that the Markov model of interaction between project participants in their initiation phase, taking into account the role of a key player in the project ‑ the customer can determine changes of state and generate recommendations for initiating projects. Results of the study can serve as a basis for creating models of control objects that contain its organizational structure and reflect the parametric properties of the system to obtain information needed for decision making to initiate projects

  7. Prediction model for initial point of net vapor generation for low-flow boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Qi; Zhao Hua; Yang Ruichang

    2003-01-01

    The prediction of the initial point of net vapor generation is significant for the calculation of phase distribution in sub-cooled boiling. However, most of the investigations were developed in high-flow boiling, and there is no common model that could be successfully applied for the low-flow boiling. A predictive model for the initial point of net vapor generation for low-flow forced convection and natural circulation is established here, by the analysis of evaporation and condensation heat transfer. The comparison between experimental data and calculated results shows that this model can predict the net vapor generation point successfully in low-flow sub-cooled boiling

  8. Models for ductile crack initiation and tearing resistance under mode 1 loading in pressure vessel steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.R.

    1988-06-01

    Micromechanistic models are presented which aim to predict plane strain ductile initiation toughness, tearing resistance and notched bar fracture strains in pressure vessel steels under monotonically increasing tensile (mode 1) loading. The models for initiation toughness and tearing resistance recognize that ductile fracture proceeds by the growth and linkage of voids with the crack-tip. The models are shown to predict the trend of initiation toughness with inclusion spacing/size ratio and can bound the available experimental data. The model for crack growth can reproduce the tearing resistance of a pressure vessel steel up to and just beyond crack growth initiation. The fracture strains of notched bars pulled in tension are shown to correspond to the achievement of a critical volume fraction of voids. This criterion is combined with the true stress - true strain history of a material point ahead of a blunting crack-tip to predict the initiation toughness. An attempt was made to predict the fracture strains of notched tensile bars by adopting a model which predicts the onset of a shear localization phenomenon. Fracture strains of the correct order are computed only if a ''secondary'' void nucleation event at carbide precipitates is taken into account. (author)

  9. Calculation of the Initial Magnetic Field for Mercury's Magnetosphere Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Igor; Parunakian, David; Dyadechkin, Sergey; Belenkaya, Elena; Khodachenko, Maxim; Kallio, Esa; Alho, Markku

    2018-03-01

    Several types of numerical models are used to analyze the interactions of the solar wind flow with Mercury's magnetosphere, including kinetic models that determine magnetic and electric fields based on the spatial distribution of charges and currents, magnetohydrodynamic models that describe plasma as a conductive liquid, and hybrid models that describe ions kinetically in collisionless mode and represent electrons as a massless neutralizing liquid. The structure of resulting solutions is determined not only by the chosen set of equations that govern the behavior of plasma, but also by the initial and boundary conditions; i.e., their effects are not limited to the amount of computational work required to achieve a quasi-stationary solution. In this work, we have proposed using the magnetic field computed by the paraboloid model of Mercury's magnetosphere as the initial condition for subsequent hybrid modeling. The results of the model have been compared to measurements performed by the Messenger spacecraft during a single crossing of the magnetosheath and the magnetosphere. The selected orbit lies in the terminator plane, which allows us to observe two crossings of the bow shock and the magnetopause. In our calculations, we have defined the initial parameters of the global magnetospheric current systems in a way that allows us to minimize paraboloid magnetic field deviation along the trajectory of the Messenger from the experimental data. We have shown that the optimal initial field parameters include setting the penetration of a partial interplanetary magnetic field into the magnetosphere with a penetration coefficient of 0.2.

  10. Initiating the judicial review in the European model of constitutional justice

    OpenAIRE

    Stojanović Dragan

    2014-01-01

    Judicial review is the core competence of the constitutional judicature in Europe, which is largely shaped by the Austrian and German models of constitutional justice. In that context, the issue of initiating the constitutional review of legislation is extremely important. Depending on the subject who is authorized to initiate this proceeding, the constitutional review may be twofold: the abstract control and the incidental control. The former type of constitutional review is generally initia...

  11. Effects of video modeling on social initiations by children with autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikopoulos, Christos K; Keenan, Michael

    2004-01-01

    We examined the effects of a video modeling intervention on social initiation and play behaviors with 3 children with autism using a multiple baseline across subjects design. Each child watched a videotape showing a typically developing peer, and the experimenter engaged in a simple social interactive play using one toy. For all children, social initiation and reciprocal play skills were enhanced, and these effects were maintained at 1- and 3-month follow-up periods.

  12. Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Joekar-Niasar, V.

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate the influence of initial conditions on the dynamics of the process. In this study, using dynamic pore-network modeling, we simulated capillary rise in a porous medium for different initial saturations (and consequently initial capillary pressures). Furthermore, the effect of hydraulic connectivity of the wetting phase in corners on the height and velocity of the wetting front was studied. Our simulation results show that there is a trade-off between capillary forces and trapping due to snap-off, which leads to a nonlinear dependence of wetting front velocity on initial saturation at the pore scale. This analysis may provide a possible answer to the experimental observations in the literature showing a non-monotonic dependency between initial saturation and the macroscopic front velocity. © Soil Science Society of America.

  13. Dynamical initial-state model for relativistic heavy-ion collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chun; Schenke, Björn

    2018-02-01

    We present a fully three-dimensional model providing initial conditions for energy and net-baryon density distributions in heavy-ion collisions at arbitrary collision energy. The model includes the dynamical deceleration of participating nucleons or valence quarks, depending on the implementation. The duration of the deceleration continues until the string spanned between colliding participants is assumed to thermalize, which is either after a fixed proper time, or a fluctuating time depending on sampled final rapidities. Energy is deposited in space time along the string, which in general will span a range of space-time rapidities and proper times. We study various observables obtained directly from the initial-state model, including net-baryon rapidity distributions, two-particle rapidity correlations, as well as the rapidity decorrelation of the transverse geometry. Their dependence on the model implementation and parameter values is investigated. We also present the implementation of the model with 3+1-dimensional hydrodynamics, which involves the addition of source terms that deposit energy and net-baryon densities produced by the initial-state model at proper times greater than the initial time for the hydrodynamic simulation.

  14. Centrifuge model tests of rainfall-induced slope failures for the investigation of the initiation conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matziaris, Vasileios; Marshall, Alec; Yu, Hai-Sui

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslides are very common natural disasters which cause damage to properties and infrastructure and may result in the loss of human lives. These phenomena often take place in unsaturated soil slopes and are triggered by the saturation of the soil profile, due to rain infiltration, which leads to a loss of shear strength. The aim of this study is to determine rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides under different initial conditions. Model tests of rainfall-induced landslides are conducted in the Nottingham Centre for Geomechanics 50g-T geotechnical centrifuge. Initially unsaturated plane-strain slope models made with fine silica sand are prepared at varying densities at 1g and accommodated within a climatic chamber which provides controlled environmental conditions. During the centrifuge flight at 60g, rainfall events of varying intensity and duration are applied to the slope models causing the initiation of slope failure. The impact of soil state properties and rainfall characteristics on the landslide initiation process are discussed. The variation of pore water pressures within the slope before, during and after simulated rainfall events is recorded using miniature pore pressure transducers buried in the soil model. Slope deformation is determined by using a high-speed camera and digital image analysis techniques.

  15. The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We consider the nonstationary fractional model $\\Delta^{d}X_{t}=\\varepsilon _{t}$ with $\\varepsilon_{t}$ i.i.d.$(0,\\sigma^{2})$ and $d>1/2$. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of $d$ conditional on initial values, and we...... discuss the role of the initial values for the bias. The results are partially extended to other fractional models, and three different applications of the theoretical results are given....

  16. Initial computer modeling of WIPP [Waste Isolation Pilot Plant] underground ventilation system, September 1985--March 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sethi, S.

    1986-11-01

    Provision of a good ventilation system has been and continues to be a major priority here of those responsible for its design, management, and operation. As an ongoing effort in this direction, development of computer simulated models for the system was initiated in September, 1985. It was decided to utilize Dravo's 'MINEVENT' computer program for this purpose. Accordingly, initial computer models of the mine's ventilation system have been developed for various modes of operation. Specifically, they include: Simulation of the current ventilation system, and Simulation of the designed ventilation system for modes: mine construction mode/shift, waste storage mode/shift, and air reversal mode. 5 figs

  17. EARLY DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: PINNING DOWN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE NICE MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, Michael E.

    2010-01-01

    In the recent years, the 'Nice' model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the solar system by evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration. Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial configuration from which the solar system started out. Recent work has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. In this paper, we use analytical arguments, as well as self-consistent numerical N-body simulations to identify fully resonant initial conditions, whose dynamical evolution is characterized by an eccentric phase of the ice giants, as well as planetary scattering. We find a total of eight such initial conditions. Four of these primordial states are compatible with the canonical 'Nice' model, while the others imply slightly different evolutions. The results presented here should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

  18. STUDY CONCERNING THE ELABORATION OF CERTAIN ORIENTATION MODELS AND THE INITIAL SELECTION FOR SPEED SKATING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaida Marius

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In realizing this study I started from the premise that, by elaborating certain orientation models and initial selection for the speed skating and their application will appear superior results, necessary results, taking into account the actual evolution of the high performance sport in general and of the speed skating, in special.The target of this study has been the identification of an orientation model and a complete initial selection that should be based on the favorable aptitudes of the speed skating. On the basis of the made researched orientation models and initial selection has been made, things that have been demonstrated experimental that are not viable, the study starting from the data of the 120 copies, the complete experiment being made by 32 subjects separated in two groups, one using the proposed model and the other formed fromsubjects randomly selected.These models can serve as common working instruments both for the orientation process and for the initial selection one, being able to integrate in the proper practical activity, these being used easily both by coaches that are in charge with the proper selection of the athletes but also by the physical education teachers orschool teachers that are in contact with children of an early age.

  19. A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique

  20. Low-cycle fatigue of welded joints: coupled initiation propagation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madi, Yazid; Recho, Naman; Matheron, Philippe

    2004-01-01

    This paper deals with the low-cycle fatigue (LC) design of welded structures, the aim being the critical analysis of the rule used in the RCC-MR [Design and construction rules for mechanical components of FBR nuclear islands, AFCEN, 1993], for the design and construction of fast breeder reactors. The study takes into account the evolution of the material behavior laws and damage accumulation during the fatigue loading. The adopted model consists of analyzing separately the behavior and the damage evolutions. It allows us to determine the damage ratio corresponding to initiation and propagation of a significant crack in order to determine the life duration. This model suggests the existence of a threshold level of loading, above which micro-cracks initiate. The initiation fatigue life can then be neglected below the threshold level. This work shows also that the RCC-MR rules are valid below this threshold load level

  1. Theoretical modeling and experimental study on fatigue initiation life of 16MnR notched components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaogui; Gao Zengliang; Qiu Baoxiang; Jiang Yanrao

    2010-01-01

    In order to investigate the effects of notch geometry and loading conditions on the fatigue initiation life and fatigue fracture life of 16MnR material, fatigue experiments were conducted for both smooth rod specimens and notched rod specimens. The detailed elastic-plastic stress and strain responses were computed by the finite element software (ABAQUS) incorporating a robust cyclic plasticity model via a user subroutine UMAT. The obtained stresses and strains were applied to the multiaxial fatigue damage criterion to compute the fatigue damage induced by a loading cycle on the critical material plane. The fatigue initiation life was then obtained by the proposed theoretical model. The well agreement between the predicted results and the experiment data indicated that the fatigue initiation of notched components in the multiaxial stress state related to all the nonzero stress and strain quantities. (authors)

  2. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie Yong [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)]. E-mail: yxie@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Xu Jianxue [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China); Jiang Jun [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)

    2006-12-15

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables.

  3. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Jiang Jun

    2006-01-01

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables

  4. Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, C.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Todorovik, D.; Domergue, J. M.

    2010-01-01

    Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture,...

  5. Expert initial review of Columbia River Basin salmonid management models: Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-10-01

    Over the past years, several fish passage models have been developed to examine the downstream survival of salmon during their annual migration through the Columbia River reservoir system to below Bonneville Dam. More recently, models have been created to simulate the survival of salmon throughout the entire life cycle. The models are used by various regional agencies and native American tribes to assess impacts of dam operation, harvesting, and predation on salmonid abundance. These models are now also being used to assess extinction probabilities and evaluate restoration alternatives for threatened and endangered salmonid stocks. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) coordinated an initial evaluation of the principal models by a panel of outside, expert reviewers. None of the models were unequivocally endorsed by any reviewer. Significant strengths and weaknesses were noted for each with respect to reasonability of assumptions and equations, adequacy of documentation, adequacy of supporting data, and calibration procedures. Although the models reviewed differ in some important respects, all reflect a common conceptual basis in classical population dynamic theory and a common empirical basis consisting of the available time series of salmonid stock data, hydrographic records, experimental studies of dam passage parameters, and measurements of reservoir mortality. The results of this initial review are not to be construed as a comprehensive scientific peer review of existing Columbia River Basin (CRB) salmon population models and data. The peer review process can be enhanced further by a dynamic exchange regional modelers and scientific panel experts involving interaction and feedback

  6. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  7. Incremental change or initial differences? Testing two models of marital deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavner, Justin A; Bradbury, Thomas N; Karney, Benjamin R

    2012-08-01

    Most couples begin marriage intent on maintaining a fulfilling relationship, but some newlyweds soon struggle, and others continue to experience high levels of satisfaction. Do these diverse outcomes result from an incremental process that unfolds over time, as prevailing models suggest, or are they a manifestation of initial differences that are largely evident at the start of the marriage? Using 8 waves of data collected over the first 4 years of marriage (N = 502 spouses, or 251 newlywed marriages), we tested these competing perspectives first by identifying 3 qualitatively distinct relationship satisfaction trajectory groups and then by determining the extent to which spouses in these groups were differentiated on the basis of (a) initial scores and (b) 4-year changes in a set of established predictor variables, including relationship problems, aggression, attributions, stress, and self-esteem. The majority of spouses exhibited high, stable satisfaction over the first 4 years of marriage, whereas declining satisfaction was isolated among couples with relatively low initial satisfaction. Across all predictor variables, initial values afforded stronger discrimination of outcome groups than did rates of change in these variables. Thus, readily measured initial differences are potent antecedents of relationship deterioration, and studies are now needed to clarify the specific ways in which initial indices of risk come to influence changes in spouses' judgments of relationship satisfaction. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Consistent initial conditions for the Saint-Venant equations in river network modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-W. Yu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Initial conditions for flows and depths (cross-sectional areas throughout a river network are required for any time-marching (unsteady solution of the one-dimensional (1-D hydrodynamic Saint-Venant equations. For a river network modeled with several Strahler orders of tributaries, comprehensive and consistent synoptic data are typically lacking and synthetic starting conditions are needed. Because of underlying nonlinearity, poorly defined or inconsistent initial conditions can lead to convergence problems and long spin-up times in an unsteady solver. Two new approaches are defined and demonstrated herein for computing flows and cross-sectional areas (or depths. These methods can produce an initial condition data set that is consistent with modeled landscape runoff and river geometry boundary conditions at the initial time. These new methods are (1 the pseudo time-marching method (PTM that iterates toward a steady-state initial condition using an unsteady Saint-Venant solver and (2 the steady-solution method (SSM that makes use of graph theory for initial flow rates and solution of a steady-state 1-D momentum equation for the channel cross-sectional areas. The PTM is shown to be adequate for short river reaches but is significantly slower and has occasional non-convergent behavior for large river networks. The SSM approach is shown to provide a rapid solution of consistent initial conditions for both small and large networks, albeit with the requirement that additional code must be written rather than applying an existing unsteady Saint-Venant solver.

  9. Robust method for determining steady state initial values for MSS plant models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringham, M.R.; Carlson, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Results of an EPRI sponsored project (RP 2504-3 amend i) demonstrated that the methodology embodied in the existing System Performance and Analysis Code (SPANC) can be employed to provide initial values for MSS plant models. An EASY5 version of the TMI plant two loop approximation with primary coolant flow recirculation through a failed pump was selected for demonstration purposes. The project entailed replacing the 1967 ASME steam properties in SPANC with the simplified MSS functions. The MSS component models were then recast into equivalent steady state models compatible with the SPANC executive system. A special input routine was written to modify the MSS data to the SPANC data format. The accuracy of the obtained initial values was approximately four significant figures, sufficient to converge on the EASY5 steady state algorithms. Convergence is relatively insensitive to the initial guess in SPANC and are obtained at a computer cost of approximately two minutes on the UNIVAC 1100/60. Since plant configuration is established by data input in SPANC, it can easily be altered to provide initial values for an MMS simulation of all TMI type plants

  10. A new funding model for nursing education through business development initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broome, Marion E; Bowersox, Dave; Relf, Michael

    Public and private higher education funding models are shifting from traditional funding of schools and departments to a model in which schools increasingly rely on revenue other than tuition to fulfill and supplement activities related to their core missions. In this paper we discuss what nursing deans need to know about non tuition funding in this contemporary paradigm. We focus on how the Duke University School of Nursing created a Business Development Initiative (BDI) that provides additional revenue to help meets the financial needs of its' programs while nurturing the entrepreneurial spirit of faculty and staff. This BDI holds promise as a model that can be adapted by other schools seeking to support education, research and professional development initiatives without relying solely on tuition, tax dollars, endowments and/or grants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Numerical modeling of the initial fluctuation condensation stage with charge drops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averina, T. A.; Zmievskaya, G. I.

    2016-11-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of the phase transition of the first kind at the initial stage of forming drops in a liquid or in melted state in a volume of steam with a fixed charge on drops. The model of the process is represented by superposition of random diffusion and jump stochastic processes. The algorithms for solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of the model of processes, which form the cluster size, allow one to calculate a distribution function of drops according to their size. The kinetic approach makes possible evaluate the role of the Rayleigh capillary instability at the initial condensation stage and to employ the analysis of electrodispersion mechanisms in the production of metal and semiconductor powders.

  12. Primordial non-Gaussianities in single field inflationary models with non-trivial initial states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahrami, Sina; Flanagan, Éanna É., E-mail: sb933@cornell.edu, E-mail: eef3@cornell.edu [Department of Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)

    2014-10-01

    We compute the non-Gaussianities that arise in single field, slow roll inflationary models arising from arbitrary homogeneous initial states, as well as subleading contributions to the power spectrum. Non Bunch-Davies vacuum initial states can arise if the transition to the single field, slow roll inflation phase occurs only shortly before observable modes left the horizon. They can also arise from new physics at high energies that has been integrated out. Our general result for the bispectrum exhibits several features that were previously seen in special cases.

  13. Comment on ‘Initial states of qubit–environment models leading to conserved quantities’

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, C F

    2014-01-01

    Recently, Gardas and Dajka (2013 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 46 235301) proposed a theoretical scheme on how to prepare a proper initial state of a composite qubit–boson system which could assure no energy exchange between the two subsystems. For illustration, they applied the proposed scheme to both the Jaynes–Cummings model and the multi-photon Rabi model. However, it has already been rigorously proven that the k-photon Rabi model for k > 2 does not have eigenstates in the Hilbert space spanned by the eigenstates of the corresponding k-photon Jaynes–Cummings model and that the two-photon Rabi model has a discrete eigenenergy spectrum with normalizable eigenstates only if the coupling strength is smaller than a critical value. Hence, the proposed theoretical scheme is not applicable to the multi-photon Rabi model. (comment)

  14. Computational modelling and analysis of the molecular network regulating sporulation initiation in Bacillus subtilis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihekwaba, Adaoha E C; Mura, Ivan; Barker, Gary C

    2014-10-24

    Bacterial spores are important contaminants in food, and the spore forming bacteria are often implicated in food safety and food quality considerations. Spore formation is a complex developmental process involving the expression of more than 500 genes over the course of 6 to 8 hrs. The process culminates in the formation of resting cells capable of resisting environmental extremes and remaining dormant for long periods of time, germinating when conditions promote further vegetative growth. Experimental observations of sporulation and germination are problematic and time consuming so that reliable models are an invaluable asset in terms of prediction and risk assessment. In this report we develop a model which assists in the interpretation of sporulation dynamics. This paper defines and analyses a mathematical model for the network regulating Bacillus subtilis sporulation initiation, from sensing of sporulation signals down to the activation of the early genes under control of the master regulator Spo0A. Our model summarises and extends other published modelling studies, by allowing the user to execute sporulation initiation in a scenario where Isopropyl β-D-1-thiogalactopyranoside (IPTG) is used as an artificial sporulation initiator as well as in modelling the induction of sporulation in wild-type cells. The analysis of the model results and the comparison with experimental data indicate that the model is good at predicting inducible responses to sporulation signals. However, the model is unable to reproduce experimentally observed accumulation of phosphorelay sporulation proteins in wild type B. subtilis. This model also highlights that the phosphorelay sub-component, which relays the signals detected by the sensor kinases to the master regulator Spo0A, is crucial in determining the response dynamics of the system. We show that there is a complex connectivity between the phosphorelay features and the master regulatory Spo0A. Additional we discovered that the

  15. Revivals and entanglement from initially entangled mixed states of a damped Jaynes-Cummings model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rendell, R.W.; Rajagopal, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    An exact density matrix of a phase-damped Jaynes-Cummings model (JCM) with entangled Bell-like initial states formed from a model two-state atom and sets of adjacent photon number states of a single-mode radiation field is presented. The entanglement of the initial states and the subsequent time evolution is assured by finding a positive lower bound on the concurrence of local 2x2 projections of the full 2x∞ JCM density matrix. It is found that the time evolution of the lower bound of the concurrence systematically captures the corresponding collapse and revival features in atomic inversion, relative entropies of atomic and radiation, mutual entropy, and quantum deficit. The atom and radiation subsystems exhibit alternating sets of collapses and revivals in a complementary fashion due to the initially mixed states of the atom and radiation employed here. This is in contrast with the result obtained when the initial state of the dissipationless system is a factored pure state of the atom and radiation, where the atomic and radiation entropies are necessarily the same. The magnitudes of the entanglement lower bound and the atomic and radiation revivals become larger as both the magnitude and phase of the Bell-like initial state contribution increase. The time evolution of the entropy difference of the total system and that of the radiation subsystem exhibit negative regions called 'supercorrelated' states which do not appear in the atomic subsystem. Entangled initial states are found to enhance this supercorrelated feature. Finally, the effect of phase damping is to randomize both the subsystems for asymptotically long times. It may be feasible to experimentally investigate the results presented here using the Rabi oscillation methods of microwave and optical cavity quantum electrodynamics since pure photon number states have recently been produced and observed

  16. Initialization of the Euler model MODIS with field data from the 'EPRI plume model validation project'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, G.; Eppel, D.; Lautenschlager, M.; Mueller, A.

    1985-01-01

    The program deck MODIS (''MOment DIStribution'') is designed to be used as operational tool for modelling the dispersion of a point source under general atmospheric conditions. The concentration distribution is determined by calculating its cross-wind moments on a vertical grid oriented in the main wind direction. The model contains a parametrization for horizontal and vertical coefficients based on a second order closure model. The Eulerian time scales, preliminary determined by fitting measured plume cross sections, are confirmed by comparison with data from the EPRI plume model validation project. (orig.) [de

  17. Where does subduction initiate and die? Insights from global convection models with continental drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulvrova, Martina; Williams, Simon; Coltice, Nicolas; Tackley, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Plate tectonics is a prominent feature on Earth. Together with the underlying convecting mantle, plates form a self-organized system. In order to understand the dynamics of the coupled system, subduction of the lithospheric plates plays the key role since it links the exterior with the interior of the planet. In this work we study subduction initiation and death with respect to the position of the continental rafts. Using thermo-mechanical numerical calculations we investigate global convection models featuring self-consistent plate tectonics and continental drifting employing a pseudo-plastic rheology and testing the effect of a free surface. We consider uncompressible mantle convection in Boussinesq approximation that is basaly and internaly heated. Our calculations indicate that the presence of the continents alterns stress distribution within a certain distance from the margins. Intra-oceanic subudction initiation is favorable during super-continent cycles while the initiation at passive continental margin prevails when continents are dispersed. The location of subduction initiation is additionally controlled by the lithospheric strength. Very weak lithosphere results in domination of intra-oceanic subduction initiation. The subduction zones die more easily in the vicinity of the continent due to the strong rheological contrast between the oceanic and continental lithosphere. In order to compare our findings with subduction positions through time recorded on Earth, we analyse subduction birth in global plate reconstruction back to 410 My.

  18. Thrust initiation and its control on tectonic wedge geometry: An insight from physical and numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Santanu; Mandal, Nibir; Saha, Puspendu; Sarkar, Shamik; Lithgow-Bertelloni, Carolina

    2014-10-01

    We performed a series of sandbox experiments to investigate the initiation of thrust ramping in tectonic wedges on a mechanically continuous basal decollement. The experiments show that the decollement slope (β) is the key factor in controlling the location of thrust initiation with respect to the backstop (i.e. tectonic suture line). For β = 0, the ramping begins right at the backstop, followed by sequential thrusting in the frontal direction, leading to a typical mono-vergent wedge. In contrast, the ramp initiates away from the backstop as β > 0. Under this boundary condition an event of sequential back thrusting takes place prior to the onset of frontal thrust progression. These two-coupled processes eventually give rise to a bi-vergent geometry of the thrust wedge. Using the Drucker-Prager failure criterion in finite element (FE) models, we show the location of stress intensification to render a mechanical basis for the thrust initiation away from the backstop if β > 0. Our physical and FE model results explain why the Main Central Thrust (MCT) is located far away from the Indo-Tibetan plate contact (ITSZ) in the Himalayan fold-and-thrust belts.

  19. Crack initiation modeling of a directionally-solidified nickel-base superalloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Ali Page

    crystal plasticity model was used to simulate the material behavior in the L and T orientations. The constitutive model was implemented in ABAQUS and a parameter estimation scheme was developed to obtain the material constants. A physically-based model was developed for correlating crack initiation life based on the experimental life data and predictions are made using the crack initiation model. Assuming a unique relationship between the damage fraction and cycle fraction with respect to cycles to crack initiation for each damage mode, the total crack initiation life has been represented in terms of the individual damage components (fatigue, creep-fatigue, creep, and oxidation-fatigue) observed at the end state of crack initiation.

  20. Building a good initial model for full-waveform inversion using frequency shift filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanchao; Wang, Shangxu; Yuan, Sanyi; Lian, Shijie

    2018-05-01

    Accurate initial model or available low-frequency data is an important factor in the success of full waveform inversion (FWI). The low-frequency helps determine the kinematical relevant components, low-wavenumber of the velocity model, which are in turn needed to avoid FWI trap in local minima or cycle-skipping. However, in the field, acquiring data that common point of low- and high-frequency signal, then utilize the high-frequency data to obtain the low-wavenumber velocity model. It is well known that the instantaneous amplitude envelope of a wavelet is invariant under frequency shift. This means that resolution is constant for a given frequency bandwidth, and independent of the actual values of the frequencies. Based on this property, we develop a frequency shift filter (FSF) to build the relationship between low- and high-frequency information with a constant frequency bandwidth. After that, we can use the high-frequency information to get a plausible recovery of the low-wavenumber velocity model. Numerical results using synthetic data from the Marmousi and layer model demonstrate that our proposed envelope misfit function based on the frequency shift filter can build an initial model with more accurate long-wavelength components, when low-frequency signals are absent in recorded data.

  1. From explicit to implicit normal mode initialization of a limited-area model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bijlsma, S.J.

    2013-02-15

    In this note the implicit normal mode initialization of a limited-area model is discussed from a different point of view. To that end it is shown that the equations describing the explicit normal mode initialization applied to the shallow water equations in differentiated form on the sphere can readily be derived in normal mode space if the model equations are separable, but only in the case of stationary Rossby modes can be transformed into the implicit equations in physical space. This is a consequence of the simple relations between the components of the different modes in that case. In addition a simple eigenvalue problem is given for the frequencies of the gravity waves. (orig.)

  2. Eosinophilic esophagitis: dilate or medicate? A cost analysis model of the choice of initial therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavitt, R T; Penson, D F; Vaezi, M F

    2014-07-01

    Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is an increasingly recognized clinical entity. The optimal initial treatment strategy in adults with EoE remains controversial. The aim of this study was to employ a decision analysis model to determine the less costly option between the two most commonly employed treatment strategies in EoE. We constructed a model for an index case of a patient with biopsy-proven EoE who continues to be symptomatic despite proton-pump inhibitor therapy. The following treatment strategies were included: (i) swallowed fluticasone inhaler (followed by esophagogastroduodenoscopy [EGD] with dilation if ineffective); and (ii) EGD with dilation (followed by swallowed fluticasone inhaler if ineffective). The time horizon was 1 year. The model focused on cost analysis of initial treatment strategies. The perspective of the healthcare payer was used. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the model. For every patient whose symptoms improved or resolved with the strategy of fluticasone first followed by EGD, if necessary, it cost an average of $1078. Similarly, it cost an average of $1171 per patient if EGD with dilation was employed first. Sensitivity analyses indicated that initial treatment with fluticasone was the less costly strategy to improve dysphagia symptoms as long as the effectiveness of fluticasone remains at or above 0.62. Swallowed fluticasone inhaler (followed by EGD with dilation if necessary) is the more economical initial strategy when compared with EGD with dilation first. © 2012 Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

  3. Structure-Function Model for Kissing Loop Interactions That Initiate Dimerization of Ty1 RNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric R. Gamache

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The genomic RNA of the retrotransposon Ty1 is packaged as a dimer into virus-like particles. The 5′ terminus of Ty1 RNA harbors cis-acting sequences required for translation initiation, packaging and initiation of reverse transcription (TIPIRT. To identify RNA motifs involved in dimerization and packaging, a structural model of the TIPIRT domain in vitro was developed from single-nucleotide resolution RNA structural data. In general agreement with previous models, the first 326 nucleotides of Ty1 RNA form a pseudoknot with a 7-bp stem (S1, a 1-nucleotide interhelical loop and an 8-bp stem (S2 that delineate two long, structured loops. Nucleotide substitutions that disrupt either pseudoknot stem greatly reduced helper-Ty1-mediated retrotransposition of a mini-Ty1, but only mutations in S2 destabilized mini-Ty1 RNA in cis and helper-Ty1 RNA in trans. Nested in different loops of the pseudoknot are two hairpins with complementary 7-nucleotide motifs at their apices. Nucleotide substitutions in either motif also reduced retrotransposition and destabilized mini- and helper-Ty1 RNA. Compensatory mutations that restore base-pairing in the S2 stem or between the hairpins rescued retrotransposition and RNA stability in cis and trans. These data inform a model whereby a Ty1 RNA kissing complex with two intermolecular kissing-loop interactions initiates dimerization and packaging.

  4. Impact of particle density and initial volume on mathematical compression models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnergaard, Jørn

    2000-01-01

    In the calculation of the coefficients of compression models for powders either the initial volume or the particle density is introduced as a normalising factor. The influence of these normalising factors is, however, widely different on coefficients derived from the Kawakita, Walker and Heckel...... equations. The problems are illustrated by investigations on compaction profiles of 17 materials with different molecular structures and particle densities. It is shown that the particle density of materials with covalent bonds in the Heckel model acts as a key parameter with a dominating influence...

  5. Experimental and modeling study on pyrolysis of n-decane initiated by nitromethane

    KAUST Repository

    Jia, Zhenjian

    2016-01-15

    Initiator could accelerate the rate of hydrocarbon pyrolysis and reduce the required material temperatures for a hypersonic aircraft heat exchanger/reactor. Nitroalkanes were proposed as the effective initiator because of the lower CN bond dissociation energy. In order to investigate the initiation mechanism of nitroalkanes on hydrocarbon pyrolysis, the pyrolysis of n-decane, nitromethane and their binary mixture were carried out at 30, 150 and 760 Torr in a flow reactor with synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometry (SVUV-PIMS). The identified and quantified pyrolysis species include C1C2 alkanes, C2C10 alkenes, C3C6 dialkenes, C2C3 alkynes, nitrogen oxides such as NO and NO2, benzene, and radicals including CH3, C3H3, and C3H5, which shed light on the mechanism of n-decane and nitromethane pyrolysis, as well as the interactions of these two fuels. The experimental results indicate that the addition of nitromethane decreases the initial decomposition temperature of n-decane, and a stronger promotion effect could be obtained as the experimental pressure increases. The distributions of alkanes, alkenes, dialkenes, alkynes and benzene are also influenced by the addition of nitromethane. A detailed kinetic model with 266 species and 1648 reactions was developed and validated against the mole fraction profiles of reactants, major products and important intermediates during the pyrolysis of each fuel and their binary mixture. The satisfactory model prediction to the experimental measurements permits the analysis of the kinetic effect of nitromethane initiation on the pyrolysis of n-decane. So that, the increase of the conversion rate at a lower temperature, the selectivity of decomposition products, and reduction of benzene formation are better understood.

  6. Modeling the downward transport of 210Pb in Peatlands: Initial Penetration‐Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olid, Carolina; Diego, David; Garcia-Orellana, Jordi; Cortizas, Antonio Martínez; Klaminder, Jonatan

    2016-01-01

    The vertical distribution of 210 Pb is commonly used to date peat deposits accumulated over the last 100–150 years. However, several studies have questioned this method because of an apparent post-depositional mobility of 210 Pb within some peat profiles. In this study, we introduce the Initial Penetration–Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model for calculating ages derived from 210 Pb profiles that are altered by an initial migration of the radionuclide. This new, two-phased, model describes the distribution of atmospheric-derived 210 Pb ( 210 Pb xs ) in peat taking into account both incorporation of 210 Pb into the accumulating peat matrix as well as an initial flushing of 210 Pb through the uppermost peat layers. The validity of the IP-CRS model is tested in four anomalous 210 Pb peat records that showed some deviations from the typical exponential decay profile not explained by variations in peat accumulation rates. Unlike the most commonly used 210 Pb-dating model (Constant Rate of Supply (CRS)), the IP-CRS model estimates peat accumulation rates consistent with typical growth rates for peatlands from the same areas. Confidence in the IP-CRS chronology is also provided by the good agreement with independent chronological markers (i.e. 241 Am and 137 Cs). Our results showed that the IP-CRS can provide chronologies from peat records where 210 Pb mobility is evident, being a valuable tool for studies reconstructing past environmental changes using peat archives during the Anthropocene. - Highlights: • Accurate age dating of peat and sediment cores is critical for evaluating change. • A new 210 Pb dating model that includes vertical transport of 210 Pb was developed. • The IP-CRS model provided consistent peat accumulation rates. • The IP-CRS ages were consistent with independent chronological markers. • The IP-CRS model derives peat ages where downward 210 Pb transport is evidenced.

  7. Modulation of Soil Initial State on WRF Model Performance Over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Haile; Jin, Qinjian; Yi, Bingqi; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Zheng, Xiaohui; Jin, Hongchun

    2017-11-01

    The soil state (e.g., temperature and moisture) in a mesoscale numerical prediction model is typically initialized by reanalysis or analysis data that may be subject to large bias. Such bias may lead to unrealistic land-atmosphere interactions. This study shows that the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dramatically underestimates soil temperature and overestimates soil moisture over most parts of China in the first (0-10 cm) and second (10-25 cm) soil layers compared to in situ observations in July 2013. A correction based on the global optimal dual kriging is employed to correct CFSR bias in soil temperature and moisture using in situ observations. To investigate the impacts of the corrected soil state on model forecasts, two numerical model simulations—a control run with CFSR soil state and a disturbed run with the corrected soil state—were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. All the simulations are initiated 4 times per day and run 48 h. Model results show that the corrected soil state, for example, warmer and drier surface over the most parts of China, can enhance evaporation over wet regions, which changes the overlying atmospheric temperature and moisture. The changes of the lifting condensation level, level of free convection, and water transport due to corrected soil state favor precipitation over wet regions, while prohibiting precipitation over dry regions. Moreover, diagnoses indicate that the remote moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the precipitation changes over the wet regions.

  8. Agent-based model of angiogenesis simulates capillary sprout initiation in multicellular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walpole, J; Chappell, J C; Cluceru, J G; Mac Gabhann, F; Bautch, V L; Peirce, S M

    2015-09-01

    Many biological processes are controlled by both deterministic and stochastic influences. However, efforts to model these systems often rely on either purely stochastic or purely rule-based methods. To better understand the balance between stochasticity and determinism in biological processes a computational approach that incorporates both influences may afford additional insight into underlying biological mechanisms that give rise to emergent system properties. We apply a combined approach to the simulation and study of angiogenesis, the growth of new blood vessels from existing networks. This complex multicellular process begins with selection of an initiating endothelial cell, or tip cell, which sprouts from the parent vessels in response to stimulation by exogenous cues. We have constructed an agent-based model of sprouting angiogenesis to evaluate endothelial cell sprout initiation frequency and location, and we have experimentally validated it using high-resolution time-lapse confocal microscopy. ABM simulations were then compared to a Monte Carlo model, revealing that purely stochastic simulations could not generate sprout locations as accurately as the rule-informed agent-based model. These findings support the use of rule-based approaches for modeling the complex mechanisms underlying sprouting angiogenesis over purely stochastic methods.

  9. A simulation model to estimate the cost and effectiveness of alternative dialysis initiation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chris P; Chertow, Glenn M; Zenios, Stefanos A

    2006-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) require dialysis to maintain survival. The optimal timing of dialysis initiation in terms of cost-effectiveness has not been established. We developed a simulation model of individuals progressing towards ESRD and requiring dialysis. It can be used to analyze dialysis strategies and scenarios. It was embedded in an optimization frame worked to derive improved strategies. Actual (historical) and simulated survival curves and hospitalization rates were virtually indistinguishable. The model overestimated transplantation costs (10%) but it was related to confounding by Medicare coverage. To assess the model's robustness, we examined several dialysis strategies while input parameters were perturbed. Under all 38 scenarios, relative rankings remained unchanged. An improved policy for a hypothetical patient was derived using an optimization algorithm. The model produces reliable results and is robust. It enables the cost-effectiveness analysis of dialysis strategies.

  10. Short pulse duration shock initiation experiments plus ignition and growth modeling on Composition B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, Chadd M; Tarver, Craig M

    2014-01-01

    Composition B (63% RDX, 36% TNT, 1% wax) is still a widely used energetic material whose shock initiation characteristics are necessary to understand. It is now possible to shock initiate Composition B and other secondary explosives at diameters well below their characteristic failure diameters for unconfined self-sustaining detonation. This is done using very high velocity, very thin, small diameter flyer plates accelerated by electric or laser power sources. Recently experimental detonation versus failure to detonate threshold flyer velocity curves for Composition B using several Kapton TM flyer thicknesses and diameters were measured. Flyer plates with diameters of 2 mm successfully detonated Composition B, which has a nominal failure diameter of 4.3 mm. The shock pressures required for these initiations are greater than the Chapman-Jouguet (C-J) pressure in self-sustaining Composition B detonation waves. The initiation process is two-dimensional, because both rear and side rarefactions can affect the shocked Composition B reaction rates. The Ignition and Growth reactive flow model for Composition B is extended to yield accurate simulations of this new threshold velocity data for various flyer thicknesses.

  11. Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of Solar Coronal Dynamics with an Initial Non-force-free Magnetic Field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, A.; Bhattacharyya, R.; Kumar, Sanjay [Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory, Dewali, Bari Road, Udaipur-313001 (India)

    2017-05-01

    The magnetic fields in the solar corona are generally neither force-free nor axisymmetric and have complex dynamics that are difficult to characterize. Here we simulate the topological evolution of solar coronal magnetic field lines (MFLs) using a magnetohydrodynamic model. The simulation is initialized with a non-axisymmetric non-force-free magnetic field that best correlates with the observed vector magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs). To focus on these ideas, simulations are performed for the flaring AR 11283 noted for its complexity and well-documented dynamics. The simulated dynamics develops as the initial Lorentz force pushes the plasma and facilitates successive magnetic reconnections at the two X-type null lines present in the initial field. Importantly, the simulation allows for the spontaneous development of mass flow, unique among contemporary works, that preferentially reconnects field lines at one of the X-type null lines. Consequently, a flux rope consisting of low-lying twisted MFLs, which approximately traces the major polarity inversion line, undergoes an asymmetric monotonic rise. The rise is attributed to a reduction in the magnetic tension force at the region overlying the rope, resulting from the reconnection. A monotonic rise of the rope is in conformity with the standard scenario of flares. Importantly, the simulated dynamics leads to bifurcations of the flux rope, which, being akin to the observed filament bifurcation in AR 11283, establishes the appropriateness of the initial field in describing ARs.

  12. Thermodynamic and structural models compared with the initial dissolution rates of SON glass samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tovena, I.; Advocat, T.; Ghaleb, D.; Vernaz, E.

    1993-01-01

    The experimentally determined initial dissolution rate R 0 of nuclear glass was correlated with thermodynamic parameters and structural parameters. The initial corrosion rates of six ''R7T7'' glass samples measured at 100 deg C in a Soxhlet device were correlated with the glass free hydration energy and the glass formation enthalpy. These correlations were then tested with a group of 26 SON glasses selected for their wide diversity of compositions. The thermodynamic models provided a satisfactory approximation of the initial dissolution rate determined under Soxhlet conditions for SON glass samples that include up to 15 wt% of boron and some alumina. Conversely, these models are inaccurate if the boron concentration exceeds 15 wt% and the glass contains no alumina. Possible correlations between R 0 and structural parameters, such as the boron coordination number and the number of nonbridging oxygen atoms, were also investigated. The authors show that R 0 varies inversely with the number of 4-coordinate boron atoms; conversely, the results do not substantiate published reports of a correlation between R 0 and the number of nonbridging oxygen atoms. (authors). 13 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs

  13. A mesoscopic reaction rate model for shock initiation of multi-component PBX explosives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y R; Duan, Z P; Zhang, Z Y; Ou, Z C; Huang, F L

    2016-11-05

    The primary goal of this research is to develop a three-term mesoscopic reaction rate model that consists of a hot-spot ignition, a low-pressure slow burning and a high-pressure fast reaction terms for shock initiation of multi-component Plastic Bonded Explosives (PBX). Thereinto, based on the DZK hot-spot model for a single-component PBX explosive, the hot-spot ignition term as well as its reaction rate is obtained through a "mixing rule" of the explosive components; new expressions for both the low-pressure slow burning term and the high-pressure fast reaction term are also obtained by establishing the relationships between the reaction rate of the multi-component PBX explosive and that of its explosive components, based on the low-pressure slow burning term and the high-pressure fast reaction term of a mesoscopic reaction rate model. Furthermore, for verification, the new reaction rate model is incorporated into the DYNA2D code to simulate numerically the shock initiation process of the PBXC03 and the PBXC10 multi-component PBX explosives, and the numerical results of the pressure histories at different Lagrange locations in explosive are found to be in good agreements with previous experimental data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. 77 FR 62623 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-15

    ... changes to the regulations applicable to model years 2012-2016, with respect to air conditioner... standards for emissions of pollutants from new motor vehicles which emissions cause or contribute to air... same improvements in air conditioner efficiency. \\5\\ This is further broken down by 5.0 and 7.2 g/mi...

  15. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  16. AN INITIAL DESIGN OF ISO 19152:2012 LADM BASED VALUATION AND TAXATION DATA MODEL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cagdas, Volkan; Kara, A.; van Oosterom, P.

    2016-01-01

    standard that defines the semantics of fiscal databases. The ISO 19152:2012 Land Administration Domain Model (LADM), as an international land administration standard focuses on legal requirements, but considers out of scope specifications of external information systems including valuation and taxation...... databases. However, it provides a formalism which allows for an extension that responds to the fiscal requirements. This paper introduces an initial version of a LADM – Fiscal Extension Module for the specification of databases used in immovable property valuation and taxation. The extension module....... It is expected that the initial version will be refined through further activities held by a possible joint working group under FIG Commission 7 (Cadastre and Land Management) and FIG Commission 9 (Valuation and the Management of Real Estate) in collaboration with other relevant international bodies....

  17. Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kean, Jason W.; McCoy, Scott W.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Staley, Dennis M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

    2013-01-01

    Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km2) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km2). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

  18. Modeling of asphalt by means of discrete element method – an initial study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Huan; Hededal, Ole; Stang, Henrik

    of conducting time-consuming and lab-costly procedures. The use of numerical models, capable of reducing greatly the testing cost, has shown great potential in characterizing asphalt-aggregate mixtures for both material evaluation and structural design purposes, [1],[2]. Discrete element method (DEM) is one...... – will be applied. The work presented here will focus on the discrete element method as a tool for modelling composite materials, i.e. determination of a representative volume; boundary conditions; characterisation of the components mastic (binder + filler) and aggregates; and establishment of virtual test samples....... Results from initial tests will be presented and the future development of the model towards characterising asphalt from its composition will be outlined....

  19. Initiative-taking, Improvisational Capability and Business Model Innovation in Emerging Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Yangfeng

    Business model innovation plays a very important role in developing competitive advantage when multinational small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from developed country enter into emerging markets because of the large contextual distances or gaps between the emerging and developed economies....... Many prior researches have shown that the foreign subsidiaries play important role in shaping the overall strategy of the parent company. However, little is known about how subsidiary specifically facilitates business model innovation (BMI) in emerging markets. Adopting the method of comparative...... innovation in emerging markets. We find that high initiative-taking and strong improvisational capability can accelerate the business model innovation. Our research contributes to the literatures on international and strategic entrepreneurship....

  20. Thermal chemical-mechanical reactive flow model of shock initiation in solid explosives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, A.L. III; Tarver, C.M.

    1998-01-01

    The three dimensional Arbitrary Lagrange Eulerian hydrodynamic computer code ALE3D with fully coupled thermal-chemical-mechanical material models provides the framework for the development of a physically realistic model of shock initiation and detonation of solid explosives. The processes of hot spot formation during shock compression, subsequent ignition of reaction or failure to react, growth of reaction in individual hot spots, and coalescence of reacting hot spots during the transition to detonation can now be modeled using Arrhenius chemical kinetic rate laws and heat transfer to propagate the reactive flow. This paper discusses the growth rates of reacting hot spots in HMX and TATB and their coalescence during shock to detonation transition. Hot spot deflagration rates are found to be fast enough to consume explosive particles less than 10 mm in diameter during typical shock duration times, but larger particles must fragment and create more reactive surface area in order to be rapidly consumed

  1. Modeling, simulation, and optimal initiation planning for needle insertion into the liver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi Sedeh, R; Ahmadian, M T; Janabi-Sharifi, F

    2010-04-01

    Needle insertion simulation and planning systems (SPSs) will play an important role in diminishing inappropriate insertions into soft tissues and resultant complications. Difficulties in SPS development are due in large part to the computational requirements of the extensive calculations in finite element (FE) models of tissue. For clinical feasibility, the computational speed of SPSs must be improved. At the same time, a realistic model of tissue properties that reflects large and velocity-dependent deformations must be employed. The purpose of this study is to address the aforementioned difficulties by presenting a cost-effective SPS platform for needle insertions into the liver. The study was constrained to planar (2D) cases, but can be extended to 3D insertions. To accommodate large and velocity-dependent deformations, a hyperviscoelastic model was devised to produce an FE model of liver tissue. Material constants were identified by a genetic algorithm applied to the experimental results of unconfined compressions of bovine liver. The approach for SPS involves B-spline interpolations of sample data generated from the FE model of liver. Two interpolation-based models are introduced to approximate puncture times and to approximate the coordinates of FE model nodes interacting with the needle tip as a function of the needle initiation pose; the latter was also a function of postpuncture time. A real-time simulation framework is provided, and its computational benefit is highlighted by comparing its performance with the FE method. A planning algorithm for optimal needle initiation was designed, and its effectiveness was evaluated by analyzing its accuracy in reaching a random set of targets at different resolutions of sampled data using the FE model. The proposed simulation framework can easily surpass haptic rates (>500 Hz), even with a high pose resolution level ( approximately 30). The computational time required to update the coordinates of the node at the

  2. A structural model of the E. coli PhoB Dimer in the transcription initiation complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tung Chang-Shung

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There exist > 78,000 proteins and/or nucleic acids structures that were determined experimentally. Only a small portion of these structures corresponds to those of protein complexes. While homology modeling is able to exploit knowledge-based potentials of side-chain rotomers and backbone motifs to infer structures for new proteins, no such general method exists to extend our understanding of protein interaction motifs to novel protein complexes. Results We use a Motif Binding Geometries (MBG approach, to infer the structure of a protein complex from the database of complexes of homologous proteins taken from other contexts (such as the helix-turn-helix motif binding double stranded DNA, and demonstrate its utility on one of the more important regulatory complexes in biology, that of the RNA polymerase initiating transcription under conditions of phosphate starvation. The modeled PhoB/RNAP/σ-factor/DNA complex is stereo-chemically reasonable, has sufficient interfacial Solvent Excluded Surface Areas (SESAs to provide adequate binding strength, is physically meaningful for transcription regulation, and is consistent with a variety of known experimental constraints. Conclusions Based on a straightforward and easy to comprehend concept, "proteins and protein domains that fold similarly could interact similarly", a structural model of the PhoB dimer in the transcription initiation complex has been developed. This approach could be extended to enable structural modeling and prediction of other bio-molecular complexes. Just as models of individual proteins provide insight into molecular recognition, catalytic mechanism, and substrate specificity, models of protein complexes will provide understanding into the combinatorial rules of cellular regulation and signaling.

  3. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  4. A STUDY ON LIMITATION OF GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE MODEL FOR ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE (AFV PROMOTION IN CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byunghun Choi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chinese responsibility for reducing Greenhouse Gas or carbon dioxide emission increases continuously. Chinese government suggested two targets; Alternative Fuel Vehicle output volume 500 thousand and AFV market share 5% by the end of 2011. However any of two targets did not come true. Therefore this study accessed the question, ‘why Chinese government initiative model for AFV promotion has been so poor?’ This study reviewed the transition process for AFV policies in China and made a structural analysis for three key policies since 2009. As a result the number of articles for related industries or factor endowments was relatively more than firm strategy or demand conditions. Also this study accessed the AFV strategy of Six SOEs from the perspective of social responsibility. Six SOEs have more concentrated on electric vehicle rather than hybrid vehicle with following the government leadership. However major EV or HEV models of them mostly were made by Joint Ventures being under control of foreign makers and the JVs have actually controlled over AFV business. So the limitation of Chinese government initiative model resulted from supplier-centric approach with targeting for public transportation and institution consumer, and it caused a failure to create the demand conditions of general customers.

  5. Models of Disease Vector Control: When Can Aggressive Initial Intervention Lower Long-Term Cost?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduro, Bismark; Grijalva, Mario J; Just, Winfried

    2018-04-01

    Insecticide spraying of housing units is an important control measure for vector-borne infections such as Chagas disease. As vectors may invade both from other infested houses and sylvatic areas and as the effectiveness of insecticide wears off over time, the dynamics of (re)infestations can be approximated by [Formula: see text]-type models with a reservoir, where housing units are treated as hosts, and insecticide spraying corresponds to removal of hosts. Here, we investigate three ODE-based models of this type. We describe a dual-rate effect where an initially very high spraying rate can push the system into a region of the state space with low endemic levels of infestation that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate cost, while in the absence of an aggressive initial intervention the same average cost would only allow a much less significant reduction in long-term infestation levels. We determine some sufficient and some necessary conditions under which this effect occurs and show that it is robust in models that incorporate some heterogeneity in the relevant properties of housing units.

  6. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  7. Development and Initial Validation of the Five-Factor Model Adolescent Personality Questionnaire (FFM-APQ).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Mary E; Glendon, A Ian

    2018-01-01

    This research reports on the 4-phase development of the 25-item Five-Factor Model Adolescent Personality Questionnaire (FFM-APQ). The purpose was to develop and determine initial evidence for validity of a brief adolescent personality inventory using a vocabulary that could be understood by adolescents up to 18 years old. Phase 1 (N = 48) consisted of item generation and expert (N = 5) review of items; Phase 2 (N = 179) involved item analyses; in Phase 3 (N = 496) exploratory factor analysis assessed the underlying structure; in Phase 4 (N = 405) confirmatory factor analyses resulted in a 25-item inventory with 5 subscales.

  8. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

    2017-01-01

    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

  9. Entrainment to periodic initiation and transition rates in a computational model for gene translation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Margaliot

    Full Text Available Periodic oscillations play an important role in many biomedical systems. Proper functioning of biological systems that respond to periodic signals requires the ability to synchronize with the periodic excitation. For example, the sleep/wake cycle is a manifestation of an internal timing system that synchronizes to the solar day. In the terminology of systems theory, the biological system must entrain or phase-lock to the periodic excitation. Entrainment is also important in synthetic biology. For example, connecting several artificial biological systems that entrain to a common clock may lead to a well-functioning modular system. The cell-cycle is a periodic program that regulates DNA synthesis and cell division. Recent biological studies suggest that cell-cycle related genes entrain to this periodic program at the gene translation level, leading to periodically-varying protein levels of these genes. The ribosome flow model (RFM is a deterministic model obtained via a mean-field approximation of a stochastic model from statistical physics that has been used to model numerous processes including ribosome flow along the mRNA. Here we analyze the RFM under the assumption that the initiation and/or transition rates vary periodically with a common period T. We show that the ribosome distribution profile in the RFM entrains to this periodic excitation. In particular, the protein synthesis pattern converges to a unique periodic solution with period T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of entrainment in a mathematical model for translation that encapsulates aspects such as initiation and termination rates, ribosomal movement and interactions, and non-homogeneous elongation speeds along the mRNA. Our results support the conjecture that periodic oscillations in tRNA levels and other factors related to the translation process can induce periodic oscillations in protein levels, and may suggest a new approach for re-engineering genetic

  10. Solutions Stability of Initial Boundary Problem, Modeling of Dynamics of Some Discrete Continuum Mechanical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Eliseev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The solution stability of an initial boundary problem for a linear hybrid system of differential equations, which models the rotation of a rigid body with two elastic rods located in the same plane is studied in the paper. To an axis passing through the mass center of the rigid body perpendicularly to the rods location plane is applied the stabilizing moment proportional to the angle of the system rotation, derivative of the angle, integral of the angle. The external moment provides a feedback. A method of studying the behavior of solutions of the initial boundary problem is proposed. This method allows to exclude from the hybrid system of differential equations partial differential equations, which describe the dynamics of distributed elements of a mechanical system. It allows us to build one equation for an angle of the system rotation. Its characteristic equation defines the stability of solutions of all the system. In the space of feedback-coefficients the areas that provide the asymptotic stability of solutions of the initial boundary problem are built up.

  11. Numerical modelling of crack initiation and propagation in concrete structure under hydro-mechanical loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bian, H.B.; Jia, Y.; Shao, J.F.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. This subject is devoted to numerical analysis of crack initiation and propagation in concrete structures due to hydro-mechanical coupling processes. When the structures subjected to the variation in hydraulic conditions, fractures occur as a consequence of coalescence of diffuse damage. Consequently, the mechanical behaviour of concrete is described by an isotropic damage model. Once the damage reaches a critical value, a macroscopic crack is initiated. In the framework of extended Finite Element Method (XFEM), the propagation of localized crack is studied in this paper. Each crack is then considered as a discontinuity surface of displacement. According to the determination of crack propagation orientations, a tensile stress-based criterion is used. Furthermore, spatial variations of mechanical properties of concrete are also taken into account using the Weibull distribution function. Finally, the proposed model is applied to numerical analysis of a concrete liner in the context of feasibility studies for geological storage of radioactive wastes. The numerical results show that the proposed approach is capable to reproduce correctly the initiation and propagation crack process until the complete failure of concrete structures during hydro-mechanical loading. The concrete is most widely used construction material in many engineering applications. It is generally submitted to various environmental loading: such as the mechanical loading, the variation of relative humidity and the exposure to chemical risk, etc. In order to evaluate the safety and durability of concrete structures, it is necessary to get a good knowledge on the influence of loading path on the concrete behaviour. The objective of this paper is to study numerically the crack propagation in concrete structure under hydro-mechanical loading,.i.e. the mechanical behaviour of concrete subjected to drying process. The drying process leads to desiccation

  12. Vaping as a Catalyst for Smoking? An Initial Model on the Initiation of Electronic Cigarette Use and the Transition to Tobacco Smoking Among Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Sven; Diehl, Katharina

    2016-05-01

    The popularity of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) among adolescents is growing worldwide. A more accurate model than the much discussed but inadequate Gateway Hypothesis is needed to explain some adolescents' initial preference for e-cigarettes over tobacco cigarettes, as well as any transition from e-cigarettes to tobacco smoking. Our aim was to summarize the diffuse fear that adolescents will be indirectly encouraged to begin smoking tobacco via the use of e-cigarettes and to systematize the disparate causal hypotheses used thus far in relevant literature. We summarized the vague and fragmented hypotheses formulated thus far in literature on both trajectories from abstinence to e-cigarette use and from there to tobacco smoking into a set of empirically testable hypotheses and organized them into a comprehensive model. Our results indicate that the perceived health risks, specific product characteristics (such as taste, price and inconspicuous use), and higher levels of acceptance among peers and others potentially make e-cigarettes initially more attractive to adolescents than tobacco cigarettes. Later, increasing familiarity with nicotine could lead to the reevaluation of both electronic and tobacco cigarettes and subsequently to a potential transition to tobacco smoking. The suggested "catalyst model" takes variations in the nicotine content of e-cigarettes as well as the dual use of different substances into account. Our model provides causal hypotheses for the initiation of e-cigarette use and for the potential transition to tobacco smoking which, after being tested in empirical studies, could lead to the formulation of concrete recommendations for healthcare intervention and prevention measures. We developed a model that provides causal hypotheses for the initiation of e-cigarette use and for the potential transition to tobacco smoking. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco

  13. Model Comparison in Subsurface Science: The DECOVALEX and Sim-SEQ Initiatives (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Rutqvist, J.; Tsang, C.

    2013-12-01

    , the DECOVALEX project has played a major role in improving our understanding of coupled THM processes in fractured rock and buffer/backfill materials, a subject of importance to performance assessment of a radioactive waste geologic repository. The second example is the Sim-SEQ project, a relatively recent model comparison initiative addressing multi-phase processes relevant in geologic carbon sequestration. Like DECOVALEX, Sim-SEQ is not about benchmarking, but rather about evaluating model building efforts in a broad and comprehensive sense. In Sim-SEQ, sixteen international modeling teams are building their own models for a specific carbon sequestration site referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (the S-3 site). The S-3 site is patterned after the ongoing SECARB Phase III Early Test site in southwestern Mississippi, where CO2 is injected into a fluvial sandstone unit with high vertical and lateral heterogeneity. The complex geology of the S-3 site, its location in the water leg of a CO2-EOR field with a strong water drive, and the presence of methane in the reservoir brine make this a challenging task, requiring the modelers to use their best judgment in making a large number of choices about how to model various processes and properties of the system.

  14. SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, Diederik

    2017-04-01

    As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different

  15. Using Deep Learning for Targeted Data Selection, Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. J.; Bonfanti, C. E.; Trailovic, L.; Etherton, B.; Govett, M.; Stewart, J.

    2017-12-01

    At present, a fraction of all satellite observations are ultimately used for model assimilation. The satellite data assimilation process is computationally expensive and data are often reduced in resolution to allow timely incorporation into the forecast. This problem is only exacerbated by the recent launch of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 satellite and future satellites providing several order of magnitude increase in data volume. At the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) we are researching the use of machine learning the improve the initial selection of satellite data to be used in the model assimilation process. In particular, we are investigating the use of deep learning. Deep learning is being applied to many image processing and computer vision problems with great success. Through our research, we are using convolutional neural network to find and mark regions of interest (ROI) to lead to intelligent extraction of observations from satellite observation systems. These targeted observations will be used to improve the quality of data selected for model assimilation and ultimately improve the impact of satellite data on weather forecasts. Our preliminary efforts to identify the ROI's are focused in two areas: applying and comparing state-of-art convolutional neural network models using the analysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model, and using these results as a starting point to optimize convolution neural network model for pattern recognition on the higher resolution water vapor data from GOES-WEST and other satellite. This presentation will provide an introduction to our convolutional neural network model to identify and process these ROI's, along with the challenges of data preparation, training the model, and parameter optimization.

  16. Genetic Algorithms for Models Optimization for Recognition of Translation Initiation Sites

    KAUST Repository

    Mora, Arturo Magana

    2011-06-01

    This work uses genetic algorithms (GA) to reduce the complexity of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and decision trees (DTs) for the accurate recognition of translation initiation sites (TISs) in Arabidopsis Thaliana. The Arabidopsis data was extracted directly from genomic DNA sequences. Methods derived in this work resulted in both reduced complexity of the predictors, as well as in improvement in prediction accuracy (generalization). Optimization through use of GA is generally a computationally intensive task. One of the approaches to overcome this problem is to use parallelization of code that implements GA, thus allowing computation on multiprocessing infrastructure. However, further improvement in performance GA implementation could be achieved through modification done to GA basic operations such as selection, crossover and mutation. In this work we explored two such improvements, namely evolutive mutation and GA-Simplex crossover operation. In this thesis we studied the benefit of these modifications on the problem of TISs recognition. Compared to the non-modified GA approach, we reduced the number of weights in the resulting model\\'s neural network component by 51% and the number of nodes in the model\\'s DTs component by 97% whilst improving the model\\'s accuracy at the same time. Separately, we developed another methodology for reducing the complexity of prediction models by optimizing the composition of training data subsets in bootstrap aggregation (bagging) methodology. This optimization is achieved by applying a new GA-based bagging methodology in order to optimize the composition of each of the training data subsets. This approach has shown in our test cases to considerably enhance the accuracy of the TIS prediction model compared to the original bagging methodology. Although these methods are applied to the problem of accurate prediction of TISs we believe that these methodologies have a potential for wider scope of application.

  17. Turbulence modeling with fractional derivatives: Derivation from first principles and initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epps, Brenden; Cushman-Roisin, Benoit

    2017-11-01

    Fluid turbulence is an outstanding unsolved problem in classical physics, despite 120+ years of sustained effort. Given this history, we assert that a new mathematical framework is needed to make a transformative breakthrough. This talk offers one such framework, based upon kinetic theory tied to the statistics of turbulent transport. Starting from the Boltzmann equation and ``Lévy α-stable distributions'', we derive a turbulence model that expresses the turbulent stresses in the form of a fractional derivative, where the fractional order is tied to the transport behavior of the flow. Initial results are presented herein, for the cases of Couette-Poiseuille flow and 2D boundary layers. Among other results, our model is able to reproduce the logarithmic Law of the Wall in shear turbulence.

  18. Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Lafontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The suite of SPoRT products for use in the EMS consists of a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite that includes a Lake Surface Temperature (LST) analysis over the Great Lakes, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent within the SST composite, a real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This paper and companion poster describe each dataset and provide recent upgrades made to the SST, Great Lakes LST, GVF composites, and the real-time LIS runs.

  19. Work information and emotional support of self-initiated expatriates: multilevel mediation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kubovcikova, Annamária; van Bakel, Marian

    of the network members with the type and amount of support they provide. The dataset consisted of 165 expatriates who rated 575 of their network members on the following learned characteristics: host country knowledge, employment status, and host country origin. The ego-centered network that consists...... of the rated ties is the context in which expatriates are embedded. It was therefore analyzed utilizing a multilevel mediation model. We have hypothesized that all learned characteristics will be determining the frequency of interaction and thus the level and type of support received. Host country knowledge......This article explores the immediate network context of self-initiated expatriates and how it influences their work information and emotional support. Building on the information seeking theory and the theory of weak and strong ties, we have created a model connecting specific characteristics...

  20. Topology in two dimensions. IV - CDM models with non-Gaussian initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, Peter; Moscardini, Lauro; Plionis, Manolis; Lucchin, Francesco; Matarrese, Sabino; Messina, Antonio

    1993-02-01

    The results of N-body simulations with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions are used here to generate projected galaxy catalogs with the same selection criteria as the Shane-Wirtanen counts of galaxies. The Euler-Poincare characteristic is used to compare the statistical nature of the projected galaxy clustering in these simulated data sets with that of the observed galaxy catalog. All the models produce a topology dominated by a meatball shift when normalized to the known small-scale clustering properties of galaxies. Models characterized by a positive skewness of the distribution of primordial density perturbations are inconsistent with the Lick data, suggesting problems in reconciling models based on cosmic textures with observations. Gaussian CDM models fit the distribution of cell counts only if they have a rather high normalization but possess too low a coherence length compared with the Lick counts. This suggests that a CDM model with extra large scale power would probably fit the available data.

  1. Markov model of fatigue of a composite material with the poisson process of defect initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paramonov, Yu.; Chatys, R.; Andersons, J.; Kleinhofs, M.

    2012-05-01

    As a development of the model where only one weak microvolume (WMV) and only a pulsating cyclic loading are considered, in the current version of the model, we take into account the presence of several weak sites where fatigue damage can accumulate and a loading with an arbitrary (but positive) stress ratio. The Poisson process of initiation of WMVs is considered, whose rate depends on the size of a specimen. The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the fatigue life of every individual WMV is calculated using the Markov model of fatigue. For the case where this function is approximated by a lognormal distribution, a formula for calculating the cdf of fatigue life of the specimen (modeled as a chain of WMVs) is obtained. Only a pulsating cyclic loading was considered in the previous version of the model. Now, using the modified energy method, a loading cycle with an arbitrary stress ratio is "transformed" into an equivalent cycle with some other stress ratio. In such a way, the entire probabilistic fatigue diagram for any stress ratio with a positive cycle stress can be obtained. Numerical examples are presented.

  2. Coupling model of aerobic waste degradation considering temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jun; Liu, Lei; Ge, Sai; Xue, Qiang; Li, Jiangshan; Wan, Yong; Hui, Xinminnan

    2018-03-01

    A quantitative description of aerobic waste degradation is important in evaluating landfill waste stability and economic management. This research aimed to develop a coupling model to predict the degree of aerobic waste degradation. On the basis of the first-order kinetic equation and the law of conservation of mass, we first developed the coupling model of aerobic waste degradation that considered temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume to simulate and predict the chemical oxygen demand in the leachate. Three different laboratory experiments on aerobic waste degradation were simulated to test the model applicability. Parameter sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the reliability of parameters. The coupling model can simulate aerobic waste degradation, and the obtained simulation agreed with the corresponding results of the experiment. Comparison of the experiment and simulation demonstrated that the coupling model is a new approach to predict aerobic waste degradation and can be considered as the basis for selecting the economic air injection volume and appropriate management in the future.

  3. Impact of the Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative on Clinical Pharmacy Specialist Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobi, Judith; Ray, Shaunta'; Danelich, Ilya; Dodds Ashley, Elizabeth; Eckel, Stephen; Guharoy, Roy; Militello, Michael; O'Donnell, Paul; Sam, Teena; Crist, Stephanie M; Smidt, Danielle

    2016-05-01

    This paper describes the goals of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists' Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative (PPMI) and its recommendations for health-system pharmacy practice transformation to meet future patient care needs and elevate the role of pharmacists as patient care providers. PPMI envisions a future in which pharmacists have greater responsibility for medication-related outcomes and technicians assume greater responsibility for product-related activities. Although the PPMI recommendations have elevated the level of practice in many settings, they also potentially affect existing clinical pharmacists, in general, and clinical pharmacy specialists, in particular. Moreover, although more consistent patient care can be achieved with an expanded team of pharmacist providers, the role of clinical pharmacy specialists must not be diminished, especially in the care of complex patients and populations. Specialist practitioners with advanced training and credentials must be available to model and train pharmacists in generalist positions, residents, and students. Indeed, specialist practitioners are often the innovators and practice leaders. Negotiation between hospitals and pharmacy schools is needed to ensure a continuing role for academic clinical pharmacists and their contributions as educators and researchers. Lessons can be applied from disciplines such as nursing and medicine, which have developed new models of care involving effective collaboration between generalists and specialists. Several different pharmacy practice models have been described to meet the PPMI goals, based on available personnel and local goals. Studies measuring the impact of these new practice models are needed. © 2016 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

  4. Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Seok-Woo; Han, Bo-Reum; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kim, Seo-Yeon; Park, Rokjin; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oman, Luke D.; Plummer, David A.; Pozzer, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

    2018-05-01

    The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

  5. How space design and technology can support the Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative through interprofessional collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay Hahn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative (PPMI calls pharmacists to more direct patient care and increased responsibility for medication-related outcomes, as a means of achieving greater safety, improving outcomes and reducing costs. This article acknowledges the value of interprofessional collaboration to the PPMI and identifies the implications of the Initiative for space design and technology, both of which stand to help the Initiative gather additional support. Summary: The profession of pharmacy has for some time now become increasingly vocal about its desire to take on greater responsibility for patient outcomes. With drug costs representing the largest portion of a hospital's pharmacy budget and reimbursements becoming more contingent on readmission avoidance, the pharmacy's influence on a hospital's bottom line is significant. More importantly, study after study is showing that with greater pharmacist intervention, patient outcomes improve. This article addresses the ways in which developments in the fields of technology and facility design can assist in the deployment of the PPMI. Conclusion: As the PPMI achieves a critical level of support from inside and outside the pharmacy, and more empirical research emerges regarding the improved outcomes and cost savings of increasing the roles of both clinical pharmacists and pharmacy technicians, the industry sectors of healthcare technology and healthcare design stand ready to assist in the execution of this new model. By encouraging pharmacists, doctors and nurses to work together - and all caregivers to work with facility designers, biomedical engineers and IT specialists, there is the increased likelihood of these fields turning to each other to problem-solve together, all for the ultimate benefit to patients and their families.   Type: Commentary

  6. Modelling Reactivity-Initiated-Accident Experiments With Falcon And SCANAIR: A Comparison Exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, A.; Wallin, H.; Zimmermann, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    A critical assessment is made of the state-of-the-art fuel performance code FALCON in the context of selected Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) experiments from the CABRI REP Na series, and contrasts its predictions against those of the extensively benchmarked SCANAIR (Version 3.2) code. The thermal fields in the fuel and cladding, the clad mechanical deformation, and the Fission Gas Release (FGR) are adopted as 'Figures of Merit' by which to judge code performance. Particular attention is paid to the importance of fission-gas-induced clad deformation (which is modelled in SCANAIR, but not in FALCON), relative to that driven by the fuel thermal expansion (which is modelled by both codes). The thermal fields calculated by the codes are in good agreement with each other, especially during the initial stages of the transients --- the adiabatic phase. Larger discrepancies are observed at later times, and are due to the different models applied to calculate the gap conductance. FALCON predicts clad permanent deformations at the end of the transients with a maximum deviation from the experimental measurements of about 20%. Generally, the code always tends to underpredict the measurements. SCANAIR performs similarly, but grossly overpredicts the permanent clad strain for the case involving a very energetic pulse. The fission-gas-driven clad deformation is only relevant for very fast pulse energy injection cases, which are not prototypical of the RIA transients expected in PWRs. The FGR models in FALCON do not capture the mechanism of 'burst-release' in the RIA transients, having been developed for steady-state irradiation conditions. This also explains why they performed poorly when applied to the fast-transient cases analyzed here. In contrast, the FGR results from SCANAIR are in satisfactory agreement with the experimental results. (author)

  7. School staff, parent and student perceptions of a Breakfast in the Classroom model during initial implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folta, Sara C; Carmichael Djang, Holly; Halmo, Megan; Metayer, Nesly; Blondin, Stacy A; Smith, Kathleen S; Economos, Christina D

    2016-06-01

    To understand perspectives of stakeholders during initial district-wide implementation of a Breakfast in the Classroom (BIC) model of the School Breakfast Program. Qualitative data were collected from twenty-nine focus groups and twenty interviews with stakeholders in a school district early in the process of implementing a BIC model of the School Breakfast Program. Ten elementary schools within a large, urban school district in the USA that served predominantly low-income, racial/ethnic minority students. Purposively selected stakeholders in elementary schools that had implemented BIC for 3-6 months: students (n 85), parents/guardians (n 86), classroom teachers (n 44), cafeteria managers (n 10) and principals (n 10). Four primary themes emerged, which were interpreted based on the Diffusion of Innovations model. School staff had changed their perceptions of both the relative disadvantages and costs related to time and effort of BIC over time; the majority of each stakeholder group expressed an appreciation for BIC; student breakfast consumption varied from day to day, related to compatibility of foods with child preferences; and stakeholders held mixed and various impressions of BIC's potential impacts. The study underscores the importance of engaging school staff and parents in discussions of BIC programming prior to its initiation to pre-emptively address concerns related to cost, relative disadvantages and compatibility with child preferences and school routines/workflow. Effectively communicating with stakeholders about positive impacts and nutritional value of the meals may improve support for BIC. These findings provide new information to policy makers, districts and practitioners that can be used to improve implementation efforts, model delivery and outcomes.

  8. Initial stability of a highly porous titanium cup in an acetabular bone defect model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimoto, Kensei; Nakashima, Yasuharu; Wakiyama, Miyo; Hara, Daisuke; Nakamura, Akihiro; Iwamoto, Mikio

    2018-04-12

    The purpose of this study was to quantify the initial stability of a highly porous titanium cup using an acetabular bone defect model. The maximum torque of a highly porous titanium cup, with a pore size of 640 μm and porosity of 60%, was measured using rotational and lever-out torque testing and compared to that of a titanium-sprayed cup. The bone models were prepared using a polyurethane foam block and had three levels of bone coverage: 100, 70, and 50%. The highly porous titanium cup demonstrated significantly higher maximum torque than the titanium-sprayed cups in the three levels of bone defects. On rotational torque testing, it was found to be 1.5, 1.3, and 1.3 times stronger than the titanium-sprayed cups with 100, 70 and 50% bone coverage, respectively. Furthermore, it was found to be 2.2, 2.3, and 1.5 times stronger on lever-out testing than the titanium-sprayed cup. No breakage in the porous layers was noted during the testing. This study provides additional evidence of the initial stability of highly porous titanium cup, even in the presence of acetabular bone defects. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Joekar-Niasar, V.; Hassanizadeh, S. M.

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate

  10. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for the 'initial defect in the canister' reference model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormenzana, J. L.

    2013-08-01

    In Posiva Oy's Safety Case 'TURVA-2012' the repository system scenarios leading to radionuclide releases have been identified in Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios. Three potential causes of canister failure and radionuclide release are considered: (i) the presence of an initial defect in the copper shell of one canister that penetrates the shell completely, (ii) corrosion of the copper overpack, that occurs more rapidly if buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion, (iii) shear movement on fractures intersecting the deposition hole. All three failure modes are analysed deterministically in Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios, and for the 'initial defect in the canister' reference model a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) has been carried out. The main steps of the PSA have been: quantification of the uncertainties in the model input parameters through the creation of probability density distributions (PDFs), Monte Carlo simulations of the evolution of the system up to 106 years using parameters values sampled from the previous PDFs. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 individual calculations (realisations) have been used in the PSA, quantification of the uncertainty in the model outputs due to uncertainty in the input parameters (uncertainty analysis), and identification of the parameters whose uncertainty have the greatest effect on the uncertainty in the model outputs (sensitivity analysis) Since the biosphere is not included in the Monte Carlo simulations of the system, the model outputs studied are not doses, but total and radionuclide-specific normalised release rates from the near-field and to the biosphere. These outputs are calculated dividing the activity release rates by the constraints on the activity fluxes to the environment set out by the Finnish regulator. Two different cases are analysed in the PSA: (i) the 'hole forever' case, in which the small hole through the copper overpack remains unchanged during the assessment

  11. A latent transition model of the effects of a teen dating violence prevention initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Jason; Miller, Shari; Cutbush, Stacey; Gibbs, Deborah; Clinton-Sherrod, Monique; Jones, Sarah

    2015-02-01

    Patterns of physical and psychological teen dating violence (TDV) perpetration, victimization, and related behaviors were examined with data from the evaluation of the Start Strong: Building Healthy Teen Relationships initiative, a dating violence primary prevention program targeting middle school students. Latent class and latent transition models were used to estimate distinct patterns of TDV and related behaviors of bullying and sexual harassment in seventh grade students at baseline and to estimate transition probabilities from one pattern of behavior to another at the 1-year follow-up. Intervention effects were estimated by conditioning transitions on exposure to Start Strong. Latent class analyses suggested four classes best captured patterns of these interrelated behaviors. Classes were characterized by elevated perpetration and victimization on most behaviors (the multiproblem class), bullying perpetration/victimization and sexual harassment victimization (the bully-harassment victimization class), bullying perpetration/victimization and psychological TDV victimization (bully-psychological victimization), and experience of bully victimization (bully victimization). Latent transition models indicated greater stability of class membership in the comparison group. Intervention students were less likely to transition to the most problematic pattern and more likely to transition to the least problem class. Although Start Strong has not been found to significantly change TDV, alternative evaluation models may find important differences. Latent transition analysis models suggest positive intervention impact, especially for the transitions at the most and the least positive end of the spectrum. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Maximum likelihood fitting of FROC curves under an initial-detection-and-candidate-analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, Darrin C.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Metz, Charles E.; Nishikawa, Robert M.

    2002-01-01

    We have developed a model for FROC curve fitting that relates the observer's FROC performance not to the ROC performance that would be obtained if the observer's responses were scored on a per image basis, but rather to a hypothesized ROC performance that the observer would obtain in the task of classifying a set of 'candidate detections' as positive or negative. We adopt the assumptions of the Bunch FROC model, namely that the observer's detections are all mutually independent, as well as assumptions qualitatively similar to, but different in nature from, those made by Chakraborty in his AFROC scoring methodology. Under the assumptions of our model, we show that the observer's FROC performance is a linearly scaled version of the candidate analysis ROC curve, where the scaling factors are just given by the FROC operating point coordinates for detecting initial candidates. Further, we show that the likelihood function of the model parameters given observational data takes on a simple form, and we develop a maximum likelihood method for fitting a FROC curve to this data. FROC and AFROC curves are produced for computer vision observer datasets and compared with the results of the AFROC scoring method. Although developed primarily with computer vision schemes in mind, we hope that the methodology presented here will prove worthy of further study in other applications as well

  13. Energetic neutral atom imaging with the Polar CEPPAD/IPS instrument: Initial forward modeling results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, M.G.; Reeves, G.D.; Moore, K.R.; Spence, H.E.; Jorgensen, A.M.; Roelof, E.C.

    1997-01-01

    Although the primary function of the CEP-PAD/IPS instrument on Polar is the measurement of energetic ions in-situ, it has also proven to be a very capable Energetic neutral Atom (ENA) imager. Raw ENA images are currently being constructed on a routine basis with a temporal resolution of minutes during both active and quiet times. However, while analyses of these images by themselves provide much information on the spatial distribution and dynamics of the energetic ion population in the ring current, detailed modeling is required to extract the actual ion distributions. In this paper, the authors present the initial results of forward modeling an IPS ENA image obtained during a small geo-magnetic storm on June 9, 1997. The equatorial ion distribution inferred with this technique reproduces the expected large noon/midnight and dawn/dusk asymmetries. The limitations of the model are discussed and a number of modifications to the basic forward modeling technique are proposed which should significantly improve its performance in future studies

  14. Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, D.R.; Schmidt, K.M.; Dietrich, W.E.; McKean, J.

    2009-01-01

    The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium. Postfailure observations of the bedrock surface exposed in the debris flow scar reveal a strong spatial correspondence between elevated piezometric response and water discharging from bedrock fractures. Measurements of apparent root cohesion on the basal (Cb) and lateral (Cl) scarp demonstrate substantial local variability, with areally weighted values of Cb = 0.1 and Cl = 4.6 kPa. Using measured soil properties and basal root strength, the widely used infinite slope model, employed assuming slope parallel groundwater flow, provides a poor prediction of hydrologie conditions at failure. In contrast, a model including lateral root strength (but neglecting lateral frictional strength) gave a predicted critical value of relative soil saturation that fell within the range defined by the arithmetic and geometric mean values at the time of failure. The 3-D slope stability model CLARA-W, used with locally observed pore water pressure, predicted small areas with lower factors of safety within the overall slide mass at sites consistent with field observations of where the failure initiated. This highly variable and localized nature of small areas of high pore pressure that can trigger slope failure means, however, that substantial uncertainty appears inevitable for estimating hydrologie conditions within incipient debris flows under natural conditions. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. Effect of the Initial Vortex Size on Intensity Change in the WRF-ROMS Coupled Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaohui; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated that the tropical cyclone (TC) induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling strongly depends on the preexisting oceanic condition and TC characteristics. However, very few focused on the correlation of SST cooling and the subsequent intensity with TC size. Therefore, a series of idealized numerical experiments are conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) model to understand how the vortex size is related to SST cooling and subsequent intensity changes of a stationary TC-like vortex. In the uncoupled experiments, the radius of maximum wind (RMW) and size (radius of gale-force wind (R17)) both depend on the initial size within the 72 h simulation. The initially small vortex is smaller than the medium and large vortices throughout its life cycle and is the weakest. In other words, thermodynamic processes do not contribute as much to the R17 change as the dynamic processes proposed (e.g., angular momentum transport) in previous studies. In the coupled experiments, the area-averaged SST cooling induced by medium and large TCs within the inner-core region is comparable due to the similar surface winds and thus mixing in the ocean. Although a stronger SST cooling averaged within a larger region outside the inner-core is induced by the larger TC, the intensity of the larger TC is more intense. This is because that the enthalpy flux in the inner-core region is higher in the larger TC than that in the medium and small TCs.

  16. ProvenCare: Geisinger's Model for Care Transformation through Innovative Clinical Initiatives and Value Creation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Geisinger's system of care can be seen as a microcosm of the national delivery of healthcare, with implications for decision makers in other health plans. In this interview, Dr Ronald A. Paulus focuses on Geisinger's unique approach to patient care. In its core, this approach represents a system of quality and value initiatives based on 3 major programs-Proven Health Navigation (medical home); the ProvenCare model; and transitions of care. The goal of such an approach is to optimize disease management by using a rational reimbursement paradigm for appropriate interventions, providing innovative incentives, and engaging patients in their own care as part of any intervention. Dr Paulus explains the reasons why, unlike Geisinger, other stakeholders, including payers, providers, patients, and employers, have no intrinsic reasons to be concerned with quality and value initiatives. In addition, he says, an electronic infrastructure that could be modified as management paradigms evolve is a necessary tool to ensure the healthcare delivery system's ability to adapt to new clinical realities quickly to ensure the continuation of delivering best value for all stakeholders.

  17. An Initial Design of ISO 19152:2012 LADM Based Valuation and Taxation Data Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çağdaş, V.; Kara, A.; van Oosterom, P.; Lemmen, C.; Işıkdağ, Ü.; Kathmann, R.; Stubkjær, E.

    2016-10-01

    A fiscal registry or database is supposed to record geometric, legal, physical, economic, and environmental characteristics in relation to property units, which are subject to immovable property valuation and taxation. Apart from procedural standards, there is no internationally accepted data standard that defines the semantics of fiscal databases. The ISO 19152:2012 Land Administration Domain Model (LADM), as an international land administration standard focuses on legal requirements, but considers out of scope specifications of external information systems including valuation and taxation databases. However, it provides a formalism which allows for an extension that responds to the fiscal requirements. This paper introduces an initial version of a LADM - Fiscal Extension Module for the specification of databases used in immovable property valuation and taxation. The extension module is designed to facilitate all stages of immovable property taxation, namely the identification of properties and taxpayers, assessment of properties through single or mass appraisal procedures, automatic generation of sales statistics, and the management of tax collection, dealing with arrears and appeals. It is expected that the initial version will be refined through further activities held by a possible joint working group under FIG Commission 7 (Cadastre and Land Management) and FIG Commission 9 (Valuation and the Management of Real Estate) in collaboration with other relevant international bodies.

  18. The Virtual Physiological Human - a European initiative for in silico human modelling -.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceconti, Marco; Clapworthy, Gordon; Van Sint Jan, Serge

    2008-12-01

    The Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) is an initiative, strongly supported by the European Commission (EC), that seeks to develop an integrated model of human physiology at multiple scales from the whole body through the organ, tissue, cell and molecular levels to the genomic level. VPH had its beginnings in 2005 with informal discussions amongst like-minded scientists which led to the STEP project, a Coordination Action funded by the EC that began in early 2006. The STEP project greatly accelerated the progress of the VPH and proved to be a catalyst for wide-ranging discussions within Europe and for outreach activities designed to develop a broad international approach to the huge scientific and technological challenges involved in this area. This paper provides an overview of the VPH and the developments it has engendered in the rapidly expanding worldwide activities associated with the physiome. It then uses one particular project, the Living Human Project, to illustrate the type of advances that are taking place to further the aims of the VPH and similar initiatives worldwide.

  19. Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orbe, Clara; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zeng, Guang; Morgenstern, Olaf; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John F.; Josse, Beatrice; Marecal, Virginie; Jöckel, Patrick; Oman, Luke D.; Strahan, Susan E.; Deushi, Makoto; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Yoshida, Kohei; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Yamashita, Yousuke; Stenke, Andreas; Revell, Laura; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Rozanov, Eugene; Pitari, Giovanni; Visioni, Daniele; Stone, Kane A.; Schofield, Robyn; Banerjee, Antara

    2018-05-01

    Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40 % differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.

  20. Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Orbe

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI. Specifically, we find up to 40 % differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.

  1. Application of micromechanical models of ductile fracture initiation to reactor pressure vessel materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaouadi, R.; Walle, E. van; Fabry, A.; Velde, J. van de; Meester, P. de

    1996-01-01

    The aim of the current study is the application of local micromechanical models to predict crack initiation in ductile materials. Two reactor pressure vessel materials have been selected for this study: JRQ IAEA monitor base metal (A533B Cl.1) and Doel-IV weld material. Charpy impact tests have been performed in both un-irradiated and irradiated conditions. In addition to standard tensile tests, notched tensile specimens have been tested. The upper shelf energy of the weld material remains almost un-affected by irradiation, whereas a decrease of 20% is detected for the base metal. Accordingly, the tensile properties of the weld material do not reveal a clear irradiation effect on the yield and ultimate stresses, this in contrast to the base material flow properties. The tensile tests have been analyzed in terms of micromechanical models. A good correlation is found between the standard tests and the micromechanical models, that are able to predict the ductile damage evolution in these materials. Additional information on the ductility behavior of these materials is revealed by this micromechanical analysis

  2. A model for crack initiation in the Li-ion battery electrodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Panat, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.panat@wsu.edu

    2015-12-01

    The development of high energy density Lithium-ion batteries is of intense interest due to their application in the electric car and consumer electronics industry. The primary limiter in using high energy density battery electrodes is the cracking of the electrode material due to the severe strain caused by the charging–discharging cycles. In this paper, a linear perturbation model is used to describe the evolution of the electrode surface under stress. The driving force for the surface undulation formation is the reduction in the electrode strain energy. The kinetics of mass transport is described by the surface and volume diffusion. The model predicts that the Si electrode will develop surface undulations of the order of sub-1 μm length scale on the electrode surface, showing a reasonable agreement with experimental results reported in literature. Such surface undulations roughen the anode surface and can form notches that can act as crack initiation sites. It is also shown that this model is applicable when the temperature of the system is not constant and the system is not isolated. The limitations of the model are also discussed. - Highlights: • This work presents a theoretical formulation that predicts crack formation at an electrode surface under a lithiation cycle. • The research provides the critical parameters required to improve the life of the Li-ion batteries. • These research findings can be used to modify the surface structure to minimize crack formation. • The predictions from the model show a reasonable agreement with the experiments. • None of the theoretical literature so far has addressed the crack formation problem addressed in this paper.

  3. Stochastic dynamics of an inflationary model and initial distribution of universes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nambu, Yasusada.

    1989-01-01

    We investigate the stationary solution of the modified Fokker-Planck equation which governs the global dynamics of the inflation. Contrary to the original FP equation which is for a Hubble horizon size region, we found that the normalizable stationary solution can exist for modified Fokker-Planck equation which is for many Hubble horizon size regions. For a chaotic inflationary model with the potential λψ 2n , we get initial distribution of classical universes using this solution, and discussed the physical meaning of it. Especially for n = 2, this distribution obeys power-law and classical universes which created from the Planck energy region make the fractal structure. Other cases n ≠ 2, creation of large classical universes are strongly suppressed. (author)

  4. Deduction of initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Chengling

    2006-11-01

    This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions (ISDs) of agents in mix-game models that is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-games to predict Shanghai Index, we find that the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 2 who play a minority game, but less sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 1 who play a majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the ISDs and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

  5. Partial Overhaul and Initial Parallel Optimization of KINETICS, a Coupled Dynamics and Chemistry Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Howard; Willacy, Karen; Allen, Mark

    2012-01-01

    KINETICS is a coupled dynamics and chemistry atmosphere model that is data intensive and computationally demanding. The potential performance gain from using a supercomputer motivates the adaptation from a serial version to a parallelized one. Although the initial parallelization had been done, bottlenecks caused by an abundance of communication calls between processors led to an unfavorable drop in performance. Before starting on the parallel optimization process, a partial overhaul was required because a large emphasis was placed on streamlining the code for user convenience and revising the program to accommodate the new supercomputers at Caltech and JPL. After the first round of optimizations, the partial runtime was reduced by a factor of 23; however, performance gains are dependent on the size of the data, the number of processors requested, and the computer used.

  6. The Belgian initiative G1000. A feasible model of deliberative cyber democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Tejedor Fuentes

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2010, after five hundred days without any stable form of government, a group of Belgian citizens from a wide range of social backgrounds launched a citizenship summit called 'G1000'. The aim of the event was to create citizen involvement in politics by stimulating participants to take part in debates about social issues and by applying innovative techniques of deliberative democracy. In order to verify whether the model mentioned meets the criteria of an “online democratic-deliberative” experiment, this article carried out a quantitative analysis of the G1000 based on the work of Fishkin, Chadwick and Habermas. According to the majority of authors who have contributed to the topic, including the spokesperson and organizer of the event, Vincent Jacquet the results demonstrate that the G1000 summit is, in fact, a genuine democratic-deliberative initiative.

  7. Modeling of the chemistry in oxidation flow reactors with high initial NO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhe; Jimenez, Jose L.

    2017-10-01

    Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) are increasingly employed in atmospheric chemistry research because of their high efficiency of OH radical production from low-pressure Hg lamp emissions at both 185 and 254 nm (OFR185) or 254 nm only (OFR254). OFRs have been thought to be limited to studying low-NO chemistry (in which peroxy radicals (RO2) react preferentially with HO2) because NO is very rapidly oxidized by the high concentrations of O3, HO2, and OH in OFRs. However, many groups are performing experiments by aging combustion exhaust with high NO levels or adding NO in the hopes of simulating high-NO chemistry (in which RO2 + NO dominates). This work systematically explores the chemistry in OFRs with high initial NO. Using box modeling, we investigate the interconversion of N-containing species and the uncertainties due to kinetic parameters. Simple initial injection of NO in OFR185 can result in more RO2 reacted with NO than with HO2 and minor non-tropospheric photolysis, but only under a very narrow set of conditions (high water mixing ratio, low UV intensity, low external OH reactivity (OHRext), and initial NO concentration (NOin) of tens to hundreds of ppb) that account for a very small fraction of the input parameter space. These conditions are generally far away from experimental conditions of published OFR studies with high initial NO. In particular, studies of aerosol formation from vehicle emissions in OFRs often used OHRext and NOin several orders of magnitude higher. Due to extremely high OHRext and NOin, some studies may have resulted in substantial non-tropospheric photolysis, strong delay to RO2 chemistry due to peroxynitrate formation, VOC reactions with NO3 dominating over those with OH, and faster reactions of OH-aromatic adducts with NO2 than those with O2, all of which are irrelevant to ambient VOC photooxidation chemistry. Some of the negative effects are the worst for alkene and aromatic precursors. To avoid undesired chemistry, vehicle emissions

  8. Toward verifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions with the CMAQ model: motivation, model description and initial simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhen; Bambha, Ray P; Pinto, Joseph P; Zeng, Tao; Boylan, Jim; Huang, Maoyi; Lei, Huimin; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Shishi; Mao, Jiafu; Schwalm, Christopher R; Shi, Xiaoying; Wei, Yaxing; Michelsen, Hope A

    2014-04-01

    Motivated by the question of whether and how a state-of-the-art regional chemical transport model (CTM) can facilitate characterization of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and verify CO2 fossil-fuel emissions, we for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate CO2. This paper presents methods, input data, and initial results for CO2 simulation using CMAQ over the contiguous United States in October 2007. Modeling experiments have been performed to understand the roles of fossil-fuel emissions, biosphere-atmosphere exchange, and meteorology in regulating the spatial distribution of CO2 near the surface over the contiguous United States. Three sets of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes were used as input to assess the impact of uncertainty of NEE on CO2 concentrations simulated by CMAQ. Observational data from six tall tower sites across the country were used to evaluate model performance. In particular, at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO), a tall tower site that receives urban emissions from Denver CO, the CMAQ model using hourly varying, high-resolution CO2 fossil-fuel emissions from the Vulcan inventory and Carbon Tracker optimized NEE reproduced the observed diurnal profile of CO2 reasonably well but with a low bias in the early morning. The spatial distribution of CO2 was found to correlate with NO(x), SO2, and CO, because of their similar fossil-fuel emission sources and common transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the potential of using a regional CTM to help interpret CO2 observations and understand CO2 variability in space and time. The ability to simulate a full suite of air pollutants in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of their use as tracers for CO2 source attribution. This work serves as a proof of concept and the foundation for more comprehensive examinations of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and various uncertainties in the future. Atmospheric CO2 has long been modeled

  9. Core Mediator structure at 3.4 Å extends model of transcription initiation complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozawa, Kayo; Schneider, Thomas R; Cramer, Patrick

    2017-05-11

    Mediator is a multiprotein co-activator that binds the transcription pre-initiation complex (PIC) and regulates RNA polymerase (Pol) II. The Mediator head and middle modules form the essential core Mediator (cMed), whereas the tail and kinase modules play regulatory roles. The architecture of Mediator and its position on the PIC are known, but atomic details are limited to Mediator subcomplexes. Here we report the crystal structure of the 15-subunit cMed from Schizosaccharomyces pombe at 3.4 Å resolution. The structure shows an unaltered head module, and reveals the intricate middle module, which we show is globally required for transcription. Sites of known Mediator mutations cluster at the interface between the head and middle modules, and in terminal regions of the head subunits Med6 (ref. 16) and Med17 (ref. 17) that tether the middle module. The structure led to a model for Saccharomyces cerevisiae cMed that could be combined with the 3.6 Å cryo-electron microscopy structure of the core PIC (cPIC). The resulting atomic model of the cPIC-cMed complex informs on interactions of the submodules forming the middle module, called beam, knob, plank, connector, and hook. The hook is flexibly linked to Mediator by a conserved hinge and contacts the transcription initiation factor IIH (TFIIH) kinase that phosphorylates the carboxy (C)-terminal domain (CTD) of Pol II and was recently positioned on the PIC. The hook also contains residues that crosslink to the CTD and reside in a previously described cradle. These results provide a framework for understanding Mediator function, including its role in stimulating CTD phosphorylation by TFIIH.

  10. A Porcine Model for Initial Surge Mechanical Ventilator Assessment and Evaluation of Two Limited Function Ventilators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson, Robert P; Hotchkin, David L; Lamm, Wayne JE; Hinkson, Carl; Pierson, David J; Glenny, Robb W; Rubinson, Lewis

    2013-01-01

    Objective To adapt an animal model of acute lung injury for use as a standard protocol for a screening, initial evaluation of limited function, or “surge,” ventilators for use in mass casualty scenarios. Design Prospective, experimental animal study. Setting University research laboratory. Subjects 12 adult pigs. Interventions 12 spontaneously breathing pigs (6 in each group) were subjected to acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ALI/ARDS) via pulmonary artery infusion of oleic acid. Following development of respiratory failure, animals were mechanically ventilated with a limited function ventilator (Simplified Automatic Ventilator [SAVe] I or II; Automedx) for one hour or until the ventilator could not support the animal. The limited function ventilator was then exchanged for a full function ventilator (Servo 900C; Siemens). Measurements and Main Results Reliable and reproducible levels of ALI/ARDS were induced. The SAVe I was unable to adequately oxygenate 5 animals, with PaO2 (52.0 ± 11.1 torr) compared to the Servo (106.0 ± 25.6 torr; p=0.002). The SAVe II was able to oxygenate and ventilate all 6 animals for one hour with no difference in PaO2 (141.8 ± 169.3 torr) compared to the Servo (158.3 ± 167.7 torr). Conclusions We describe a novel in vivo model of ALI/ARDS that can be used to initially screen limited function ventilators considered for mass respiratory failure stockpiles, and is intended to be combined with additional studies to defintively assess appropriateness for mass respiratory failure. Specifically, during this study we demonstrate that the SAVe I ventilator is unable to provide sufficient gas exchange, while the SAVe II, with several more functions, was able to support the same level of hypoxemic respiratory failure secondary to ALI/ARDS for one hour. PMID:21187747

  11. An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Abate, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    ...) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform...

  12. Toward a theory of the initiation of cancer by alpha, beta, and x radiation: the twin doublet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshall, J.H.; Pagnamenta, A.

    1979-01-01

    Information concerning the basic mechanics of interaction of radiation with matter at both the cellular and the molecular levels may now be sufficient to allow an extension of the cellular model of cancer induction to the level of individual particle tracks, ionizations, and particular bonds in the DNA molecule. The Doublet model appears promising as a candidate for the initial damage to DNA involved in cell killing, mutation, and a single cancer initiation

  13. From Family Based to Industrial Based Production: Local Economic Development Initiatives and the HELIX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartjan W Pennink

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To build a strong local economy, good practice tells us that each community should undertake a collaborative, strategically planned process to understand and then act upon its own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. From this perspective we start with the local communities but how is this related to the perspective from the Helix model in which three actors are explicitly introduced: the Government, the Industry and the Universities? The purpose of local economic development (LED is to build up the economic capacity of a local area to improve its economic future and the quality of life for all. To support  the Local Economic Development in remote areas,   a program  has been developed based on the LED frame work of the world bank. This approach and  the experiences over  the past years with this program are  described in the first part.  In the second part of the paper, We analyse work done with that program with the help of the social capital concept and the triple helix model.  In all cases it is important to pay attention to who is taken the initiative after the first move (and it is not always the governance as actor and for the triple helix we suggest  that the concepts of (national Government, Industry and University need a translation to Local Governance Agency, Cooperation or other ways of cooperation of local communities and Local Universities. Although a push from outside might help  a local region in development the endogenous factors are  also needed. Keywords: Triple Helix model, Local Economic Development, Local Actors, Double Triangle within the Helix Model

  14. Experimental and modeling study on pyrolysis of n-decane initiated by nitromethane

    KAUST Repository

    Jia, Zhenjian; Wang, Zhandong; Cheng, Zhanjun; Zhou, Weixing

    2016-01-01

    Initiator could accelerate the rate of hydrocarbon pyrolysis and reduce the required material temperatures for a hypersonic aircraft heat exchanger/reactor. Nitroalkanes were proposed as the effective initiator because of the lower CN bond

  15. Meningococcal disease in the Asia-Pacific region: Findings and recommendations from the Global Meningococcal Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrow, Ray; Lee, Jin-Soo; Vázquez, Julio A; Enwere, Godwin; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir; Kamiya, Hajime; Kim, Hwang Min; Jo, Dae Sun

    2016-11-21

    The Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) is a global expert group that includes scientists, clinicians, and public health officials with a wide range of specialties. The purpose of the Initiative is to promote the global prevention of meningococcal disease (MD) through education, research, and cooperation. The first Asia-Pacific regional meeting was held in November 2014. The GMI reviewed the epidemiology of MD, surveillance, and prevention strategies, and outbreak control practices from participating countries in the Asia-Pacific region.Although, in general, MD is underreported in this region, serogroup A disease is most prominent in low-income countries such as India and the Philippines, while Taiwan, Japan, and Korea reported disease from serogroups C, W, and Y. China has a mixed epidemiology of serogroups A, B, C, and W. Perspectives from countries outside of the region were also provided to provide insight into lessons learnt. Based on the available data and meeting discussions, a number of challenges and data gaps were identified and, as a consequence, several recommendations were formulated: strengthen surveillance; improve diagnosis, typing and case reporting; standardize case definitions; develop guidelines for outbreak management; and promote awareness of MD among healthcare professionals, public health officials, and the general public. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Environmental fate and transport of chemical signatures from buried landmines -- Screening model formulation and initial simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phelan, J.M.; Webb, S.W.

    1997-06-01

    The fate and transport of chemical signature molecules that emanate from buried landmines is strongly influenced by physical chemical properties and by environmental conditions of the specific chemical compounds. Published data have been evaluated as the input parameters that are used in the simulation of the fate and transport processes. A one-dimensional model developed for screening agricultural pesticides was modified and used to simulate the appearance of a surface flux above a buried landmine, estimate the subsurface total concentration, and show the phase specific concentrations at the ground surface. The physical chemical properties of TNT cause a majority of the mass released to the soil system to be bound to the solid phase soil particles. The majority of the transport occurs in the liquid phase with diffusion and evaporation driven advection of soil water as the primary mechanisms for the flux to the ground surface. The simulations provided herein should only be used for initial conceptual designs of chemical pre-concentration subsystems or complete detection systems. The physical processes modeled required necessary simplifying assumptions to allow for analytical solutions. Emerging numerical simulation tools will soon be available that should provide more realistic estimates that can be used to predict the success of landmine chemical detection surveys based on knowledge of the chemical and soil properties, and environmental conditions where the mines are buried. Additional measurements of the chemical properties in soils are also needed before a fully predictive approach can be confidently applied.

  17. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  18. The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winskill, Peter; Slater, Hannah C; Griffin, Jamie T; Ghani, Azra C; Walker, Patrick G T

    2017-11-01

    Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur. We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million) malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million) lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million) cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653) lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166) per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million) cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263) deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening) in this analysis. Our

  19. The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Winskill

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI, are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur.We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs, indoor residual spraying (IRS, and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs. We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653 lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263 deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening in this analysis

  20. Catalyzing Interdisciplinary Research and Training: Initial Outcomes and Evolution of the Affinity Research Collaboratives Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravid, Katya; Seta, Francesca; Center, David; Waters, Gloria; Coleman, David

    2017-10-01

    Team science has been recognized as critical to solving increasingly complex biomedical problems and advancing discoveries in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of human disease. In 2009, the Evans Center for Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research (ECIBR) was established in the Department of Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine as a new organizational paradigm to promote interdisciplinary team science. The ECIBR is made up of affinity research collaboratives (ARCs), consisting of investigators from different departments and disciplines who come together to study biomedical problems that are relevant to human disease and not under interdisciplinary investigation at the university. Importantly, research areas are identified by investigators according to their shared interests. ARC proposals are evaluated by a peer review process, and collaboratives are funded annually for up to three years.Initial outcomes of the first 12 ARCs show the value of this model in fostering successful biomedical collaborations that lead to publications, extramural grants, research networking, and training. The most successful ARCs have been developed into more sustainable organizational entities, including centers, research cores, translational research projects, and training programs.To further expand team science at Boston University, the Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research Office was established in 2015 to more fully engage the entire university, not just the medical campus, in interdisciplinary research using the ARC mechanism. This approach to promoting team science may be useful to other academic organizations seeking to expand interdisciplinary research at their institutions.

  1. Mountains on Io: High-resolution Galileo observations, initial interpretations, and formation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turtle, E.P.; Jaeger, W.L.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; McEwen, A.S.; Milazzo, M.; Moore, J.; Phillips, C.B.; Radebaugh, J.; Simonelli, D.; Chuang, F.; Schuster, P.; Alexander, D.D.A.; Capraro, K.; Chang, S.-H.; Chen, A.C.; Clark, J.; Conner, D.L.; Culver, A.; Handley, T.H.; Jensen, D.N.; Knight, D.D.; LaVoie, S.K.; McAuley, M.; Mego, V.; Montoya, O.; Mortensen, H.B.; Noland, S.J.; Patel, R.R.; Pauro, T.M.; Stanley, C.L.; Steinwand, D.J.; Thaller, T.F.; Woncik, P.J.; Yagi, G.M.; Yoshimizu, J.R.; Alvarez Del Castillo, E.M.; Beyer, R.; Branston, D.; Fishburn, M.B.; Muller, Birgit; Ragan, R.; Samarasinha, N.; Anger, C.D.; Cunningham, C.; Little, B.; Arriola, S.; Carr, M.H.; Asphaug, E.; Morrison, D.; Rages, K.; Banfield, D.; Bell, M.; Burns, J.A.; Carcich, B.; Clark, B.; Currier, N.; Dauber, I.; Gierasch, P.J.; Helfenstein, P.; Mann, M.; Othman, O.; Rossier, L.; Solomon, N.; Sullivan, R.; Thomas, P.C.; Veverka, J.; Becker, T.; Edwards, K.; Gaddis, L.; Kirk, R.; Lee, E.; Rosanova, T.; Sucharski, R.M.; Beebe, R.F.; Simon, A.; Belton, M.J.S.; Bender, K.; Fagents, S.; Figueredo, P.; Greeley, R.; Homan, K.; Kadel, S.; Kerr, J.; Klemaszewski, J.; Lo, E.; Schwarz, W.; Williams, D.; Williams, K.; Bierhaus, B.; Brooks, S.; Chapman, C.R.; Merline, B.; Keller, J.; Tamblyn, P.; Bouchez, A.; Dyundian, U.; Ingersoll, A.P.; Showman, A.; Spitale, J.; Stewart, S.; Vasavada, A.; Breneman, H.H.; Cunningham, W.F.; Johnson, T.V.; Jones, T.J.; Kaufman, J.M.; Klaasen, K.P.; Levanas, G.; Magee, K.P.; Meredith, M.K.; Orton, G.S.; Senske, D.A.; West, A.; Winther, D.; Collins, G.; Fripp, W.J.; Head, J. W.; Pappalardo, R.; Pratt, S.; Prockter, L.; Spaun, N.; Colvin, T.; Davies, M.; DeJong, E.M.; Hall, J.; Suzuki, S.; Gorjian, Z.; Denk, T.; Giese, B.; Koehler, U.; Neukum, G.; Oberst, J.; Roatsch, T.; Tost, W.; Wagner, R.; Dieter, N.; Durda, D.; Geissler, P.; Greenberg, R.J.; Hoppa, G.; Plassman, J.; Tufts, R.; Fanale, F.P.; Granahan, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    During three close flybys in late 1999 and early 2000 the Galileo spacecraft ac-quired new observations of the mountains that tower above Io's surface. These images have revealed surprising variety in the mountains' morphologies. They range from jagged peaks several kilometers high to lower, rounded structures. Some are very smooth, others are covered by numerous parallel ridges. Many mountains have margins that are collapsing outward in large landslides or series of slump blocks, but a few have steep, scalloped scarps. From these observations we can gain insight into the structure and material properties of Io's crust as well as into the erosional processes acting on Io. We have also investigated formation mechanisms proposed for these structures using finite-element analysis. Mountain formation might be initiated by global compression due to the high rate of global subsidence associated with Io's high resurfacing rate; however, our models demonstrate that this hypothesis lacks a mechanism for isolating the mountains. The large fraction (???40%) of mountains that are associated with paterae suggests that in some cases these features are tectonically related. Therefore we have also simulated the stresses induced in Io's crust by a combination of a thermal upwelling in the mantle with global lithospheric compression and have shown that this can focus compressional stresses. If this mechanism is responsible for some of Io's mountains, it could also explain the common association of mountains with paterae. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Mathematical modeling of vibration processes in reinforced concrete structures for setting up crack initiation monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bykov, A. A.; Matveenko, B. P.; Serovaev, G. S.; Shardakov, I. N.; Shestakov, A. P.

    2015-03-01

    The contemporary construction industry is based on the use of reinforced concrete structures, but emergency situations resulting in fracture can arise in their exploitation. In a majority of cases, reinforced concrete fracture is realized as the process of crack formation and development. As a rule, the appearance of the first cracks does not lead to the complete loss of the carrying capacity but is a fracture precursor. One method for ensuring the safe operation of building structures is based on crack initiation monitoring. A vibration method for the monitoring of reinforced concrete structures is justified in this paper. An example of a reinforced concrete beam is used to consider all stages related to the analysis of the behavior of natural frequencies in the development of a crack-shaped defect and the use of the obtained numerical results for the vibration test method. The efficiency of the method is illustrated by the results of modeling of the physical part of the method related to the analysis of the natural frequency evolution as a response to the impact action in the crack development process.

  3. Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). In last year's NWA abstract on this topic, the suite of SPoRT products supported in the STRC EMS was presented, which includes a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This abstract and companion presentation describes recent upgrades made to the SST and GVF composites, as well as the real-time LIS runs. The Great Lakes sea-ice product is unchanged from 2011. The SPoRT SST composite product has been expanded geographically and as a result, the resolution has been coarsened from 1 km to 2 km to accommodate the larger domain. The expanded domain covers much of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to western Europe (0 N to 80 N latitude and 150 E to 10 E longitude). In addition, the NESDIS POES-GOES product was added to fill in gaps caused by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) being unable to sense in cloudy regions, replacing the recently-lost Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS with negligible change to product fidelity. The SST product now runs twice per day for Terra and Aqua combined data collections from 0000 to 1200 UTC and from 1200 to 0000 UTC, with valid analysis times at 0600 and 1800 UTC. The twice-daily compositing technique reduces the overall latency of the previous version while still representing the diurnal cycle characteristics. The SST composites are available at approximately four hours after the end of each collection period (i.e. 1600 UTC for the nighttime analysis and 0400 UTC for the daytime analysis). The real-time MODIS GVF composite has only received minor updates in the

  4. Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model

    OpenAIRE

    Machado Junior, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva de

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Methods Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. Results The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous fie...

  5. Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model

    OpenAIRE

    Machado, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; de Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Methods Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. Results The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous field of ...

  6. Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva de

    2017-01-01

    To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous field of common indicators between them. There is similarity between the indicators adopted by companies, but one of the hospitals analyzed had a greater number of converging indicators to Global Reporting Initiative.

  7. Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrassi, A.; Weber, R. J. T.; Guemas, V.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Asif, M.; Volpi, D.

    2014-04-01

    Initialization techniques for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions fall into two main categories; namely full-field initialization (FFI) and anomaly initialization (AI). In the FFI case the initial model state is replaced by the best possible available estimate of the real state. By doing so the initial error is efficiently reduced but, due to the unavoidable presence of model deficiencies, once the model is let free to run a prediction, its trajectory drifts away from the observations no matter how small the initial error is. This problem is partly overcome with AI where the aim is to forecast future anomalies by assimilating observed anomalies on an estimate of the model climate. The large variety of experimental setups, models and observational networks adopted worldwide make it difficult to draw firm conclusions on the respective advantages and drawbacks of FFI and AI, or to identify distinctive lines for improvement. The lack of a unified mathematical framework adds an additional difficulty toward the design of adequate initialization strategies that fit the desired forecast horizon, observational network and model at hand. Here we compare FFI and AI using a low-order climate model of nine ordinary differential equations and use the notation and concepts of data assimilation theory to highlight their error scaling properties. This analysis suggests better performances using FFI when a good observational network is available and reveals the direct relation of its skill with the observational accuracy. The skill of AI appears, however, mostly related to the model quality and clear increases of skill can only be expected in coincidence with model upgrades. We have compared FFI and AI in experiments in which either the full system or the atmosphere and ocean were independently initialized. In the former case FFI shows better and longer-lasting improvements, with skillful predictions until month 30. In the initialization of single compartments, the best

  8. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    OpenAIRE

    Wooyeon Sunwoo; Minha Choi

    2017-01-01

    Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC) prior to a rainfall even...

  9. A methodological framework to support the initiation, design and institutionalization of participatory modeling processes in water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbe, Johannes; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia; Adamowski, Jan

    2018-01-01

    Multiple barriers constrain the widespread application of participatory methods in water management, including the more technical focus of most water agencies, additional cost and time requirements for stakeholder involvement, as well as institutional structures that impede collaborative management. This paper presents a stepwise methodological framework that addresses the challenges of context-sensitive initiation, design and institutionalization of participatory modeling processes. The methodological framework consists of five successive stages: (1) problem framing and stakeholder analysis, (2) process design, (3) individual modeling, (4) group model building, and (5) institutionalized participatory modeling. The Management and Transition Framework is used for problem diagnosis (Stage One), context-sensitive process design (Stage Two) and analysis of requirements for the institutionalization of participatory water management (Stage Five). Conceptual modeling is used to initiate participatory modeling processes (Stage Three) and ensure a high compatibility with quantitative modeling approaches (Stage Four). This paper describes the proposed participatory model building (PMB) framework and provides a case study of its application in Québec, Canada. The results of the Québec study demonstrate the applicability of the PMB framework for initiating and designing participatory model building processes and analyzing barriers towards institutionalization.

  10. Meningococcal disease in the Middle East and Africa: Findings and updates from the Global Meningococcal Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrow, Ray; Caugant, Dominique A; Ceyhan, Mehmet; Christensen, Hannah; Dinleyici, Ener Cagri; Findlow, Jamie; Glennie, Linda; Von Gottberg, Anne; Kechrid, Amel; Vázquez Moreno, Julio; Razki, Aziza; Smith, Vincent; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir; Tali-Maamar, Hassiba; Zerouali, Khalid

    2017-07-01

    The Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) has recently considered current issues in Middle Eastern and African countries, and produced two recommendations: (i) that vaccination of attendees should be considered for some types of mass-gathering events, as some countries mandate for the Hajj, and (ii) vaccination of people with human immunodeficiency virus should be used routinely, because of increased meningococcal disease (MD) risk. Differences exist between Middle Eastern and African countries regarding case and syndrome definitions, surveillance, and epidemiologic data gaps. Sentinel surveillance provides an overview of trends and prevalence of different capsular groups supporting vaccine selection and planning, whereas cost-effectiveness decisions require comprehensive disease burden data, ideally counting every case. Surveillance data showed importance of serogroup B MD in North Africa and serogroup W expansion in Turkey and South Africa. Success of MenAfriVac ® in the African "meningitis belt" was reviewed; the GMI believes similar benefits may follow development of a low-cost meningococcal pentavalent vaccine, currently in phase 1 clinical trial, by 2022. The importance of carriage and herd protection for controlling invasive MD and the importance of advocacy and awareness campaigns were also highlighted. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. System modeling and reactor design studies of the Advanced Thermionic Initiative space nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H.H.; Abdul-Hamid, S.; Klein, A.C.

    1996-01-01

    In-core thermionic space reactor design concepts that operate at a nominal power output range of 20 to 50 kW(electric) are described. Details of the neutronic, thermionic, thermal hydraulics, and shielding performance are presented. Because of the strong absorption of thermal neutrons by natural tungsten and the large amount of natural tungsten within the reactor core, two designs are considered. An overall system design code has been developed at Oregon State University to model advanced in-core thermionic energy conversion-based nuclear reactor systems for space applications. The results show that the driverless single-cell Advanced Thermionic Initiative (ATI) configuration, which does not have driver fuel rods, proved to be more efficient than the driven core, which has driver rods. The results also show that the inclusion of the true axial and radial power distribution decrease the overall conversion efficiency. The flattening of the radial power distribution by three different methods would lead to a higher efficiency. The results show that only one TFE works at the optimum emitter temperature; all other TFEs are off the optimum performance and result in a 40% decrease of the efficiency of the overall system. The true axial profile is significantly different as there is a considerable amount of neutron leakage out of the top and bottom of the reactor. The analysis reveals that the axial power profile actually has a chopped cosine shape. For this axial profile, the reactor core overall efficiency for the driverless ATI reactor version is found to be 5.84% with a total electrical power of 21.92 kW(electric). By considering the true axial power profile instead of the uniform power profile, each TFE loses ∼80 W(electric)

  12. Economic return from the Women's Health Initiative estrogen plus progestin clinical trial: a modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Joshua A; Etzioni, Ruth; Waters, Teresa M; Pettinger, Mary; Rossouw, Jacques E; Anderson, Garnet L; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Manson, Joann E; Hlatky, Mark; Johnson, Karen C; Ramsey, Scott D

    2014-05-06

    The findings of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) estrogen plus progestin (E+P) trial led to a substantial reduction in use of combined hormone therapy (cHT) among postmenopausal women in the United States. The economic effect of this shift has not been evaluated relative to the trial's $260 million cost (2012 U.S. dollars). To estimate the economic return from the WHI E+P trial. Decision model to simulate health outcomes for a "WHI scenario" with observed cHT use and a "no-WHI scenario" with cHT use extrapolated from the pretrial period. Primary analyses of WHI outcomes, peer-reviewed literature, and government sources. Postmenopausal women in the United States, aged 50 to 79 years, who did not have a hysterectomy. 2003 to 2012. Payer. Combined hormone therapy. Disease incidence, expenditure, quality-adjusted life-years, and net economic return. The WHI scenario resulted in 4.3 million fewer cHT users, 126,000 fewer breast cancer cases, 76,000 fewer cardiovascular disease cases, 263,000 more fractures, 145,000 more quality-adjusted life-years, and expenditure savings of $35.2 billion. The corresponding net economic return of the trial was $37.1 billion ($140 per dollar invested in the trial) at a willingness-to-pay level of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. The 95% CI for the net economic return of the trial was $23.1 to $51.2 billion. No evaluation of indirect costs or outcomes beyond 2012. The WHI E+P trial made high-value use of public funds with a substantial return on investment. These results can contribute to discussions about the role of public funding for large, prospective trials with high potential for public health effects. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

  13. An experimental two-stage rat model of lung carcinoma initiated by radon exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poncy, J.L.; Laroque, P.; Fritsch, P.; Monchaux, G.; Masse, R.; Chameaud, J.

    1992-01-01

    We present the results of a two-stage biological model of lung carcinogenesis in rats. The histogenesis of these tumors was examined, and DNA content of lung cells was measured by flow cytometry during the evolving neoplastic stage. Tumors were induced in rat lungs after radon inhalation (1600 WLM) followed by a promoter treatment; six intramuscular injections of 5,6-benzoflavone (25 mg/kg of body weight/injection) every 2 wk. Less than 3 mo after the first injection of benzoflavone, squamous cell carcinoma was observed in the lungs of all rats exposed to radon. The preneoplastic lesions gradually developed as follows: hyperplastic bronchiolar-type cells migrated to the alveoli from cells that proliferated in bronchioles and alveolar ducts; initial lesions were observed in almost all respiratory bronchioles. From some hyperplasias, epidermoid metaplasias arose distally, forming nodular epidermoid lesions in alveoli, which progressed to form squamous papilloma and, finally, epidermoid carcinomas. The histogenesis of these experimentally induced epidermoid carcinomas showed the bronchioloalveolar origin of the tumor. This factor must be considered when comparing these with human lesions; in humans, lung epidermoid carcinomas are thought to arise mainly in the first bronchial generations. The labeling index of pulmonary tissue after incorporation of 3 H-thymidine by the cells was 0.2% in control rats. This index reached a value of 1 to 2% in the hyperplastic area of the bronchioles and 10 to 15% in epidermoid nodules and epidermoid tumors, respectively. DNA cytometric analysis was performed on cell suspensions obtained after enzymatic treatment of paraffin sections of lungs from rats sacrificed during different stags of neoplastic transformations. Data showed the early appearance of a triploid cell population that grew during the evolution of nodular epidermoid lesions to epidermoid carcinomas

  14. Initiating events study of the first extraction cycle process in a model reprocessing plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Renze; Zhang, Jian Gang; Zhuang, Dajie; Feng, Zong Yang [China Institute for Radiation Protection, Taiyuan (China)

    2016-06-15

    Definition and grouping of initiating events (IEs) are important basics for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). An IE in a spent fuel reprocessing plant (SFRP) is an event that probably leads to the release of dangerous material to jeopardize workers, public and environment. The main difference between SFRPs and nuclear power plants (NPPs) is that hazard materials spread diffusely in a SFRP and radioactive material is just one kind of hazard material. Since the research on IEs for NPPs is in-depth around the world, there are several general methods to identify IEs: reference of lists in existence, review of experience feedback, qualitative analysis method, and deductive analysis method. While failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an important qualitative analysis method, master logic diagram (MLD) method is the deductive analysis method. IE identification in SFRPs should be consulted with the experience of NPPs, however the differences between SFRPs and NPPs should be considered seriously. The plutonium uranium reduction extraction (Purex) process is adopted by the technics in a model reprocessing plant. The first extraction cycle (FEC) is the pivotal process in the Purex process. Whether the FEC can function safely and steadily would directly influence the production process of the whole plant-production quality. Important facilities of the FEC are installed in the equipment cells (ECs). In this work, IEs in the FEC process were identified and categorized by FMEA and MLD two methods, based on the fact that ECs are containments in the plant. The results show that only two ECs in the FEC do not need to be concerned particularly with safety problems, and criticality, fire and red oil explosion are IEs which should be emphatically analyzed. The results are accordant with the references.

  15. Innate immunity drives the initiation of a murine model of primary biliary cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Hsuan Chang

    Full Text Available Invariant natural killer T (iNKT cells play complex roles in bridging innate and adaptive immunity by engaging with glycolipid antigens presented by CD1d. Our earlier work suggested that iNKT cells were involved in the initiation of the original loss of tolerance in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC. To address this issue in more detail and, in particular, to focus on whether iNKT cells activated by a Th2-biasing agonist (2s,3s,4r-1-O-(α-D-galactopyranosyl-N-tetracosanoyl-2-amino-1,3,4-nonanetriol (OCH, can influence the development of PBC in a xenobiotic-induced PBC murine model. Groups of mice were treated with either OCH or, as a control, α-galactosylceramide (α-GalCer and thence serially followed for cytokine production, markers of T cell activation, liver histopathology and anti-mitochondrial antibody responses. Further, additional groups of CD1d deleted mice were similarly studied. Our data indicate that administration of OCH has a dramatic influence with exacerbation of portal inflammation and hepatic fibrosis similar to mice treated with α-GalCer. Further, iNKT cell deficient CD1d knockout mice have decreased inflammatory portal cell infiltrates and reduced anti-mitochondrial antibody responses. We submit that activation of iNKT cells can occur via overlapping and/or promiscuous pathways and highlight the critical role of innate immunity in the natural history of autoimmune cholangitis. These data have implications for humans with PBC and emphasize that therapeutic strategies must focus not only on suppressing adaptive responses, but also innate immunity.

  16. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  17. On-road heavy-duty diesel particulate matter emissions modeled using chassis dynamometer data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kear, Tom; Niemeier, D A

    2006-12-15

    This study presents a model, derived from chassis dynamometer test data, for factors (operational correction factors, or OCFs) that correct (g/mi) heavy-duty diesel particle emission rates measured on standard test cycles for real-world conditions. Using a random effects mixed regression model with data from 531 tests of 34 heavy-duty vehicles from the Coordinating Research Council's E55/E59 research project, we specify a model with covariates that characterize high power transient driving, time spent idling, and average speed. Gram per mile particle emissions rates were negatively correlated with high power transient driving, average speed, and time idling. The new model is capable of predicting relative changes in g/mi on-road heavy-duty diesel particle emission rates for real-world driving conditions that are not reflected in the driving cycles used to test heavy-duty vehicles.

  18. Role of the atmospheric mean state on the initiation of the Madden-Julian oscillation in a tropical channel model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Pallav; Zhang, Chidong [University of Miami, RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL (United States); Moncrieff, Mitchell W.; Dudhia, Jim; Caron, Julie M.; Bruyere, Cindy [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Tropical channel models, defined as models that are global in the zonal direction but bounded in the meridional direction, are particularly useful for simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and understanding its physical and dynamical basis. Influences from the extratropics through the lateral boundaries have been found to be essential to the reproduction of the initiation of certain MJO events. This led to a hypothesis that multi-year simulations using a tropical channel model would reproduce reasonable MJO statistics under the influence of prescribed lateral boundary conditions derived from global reanalyses. Interestingly, the MJO statistics in such a multi-year simulation by a high-resolution tropical channel model are not better than those from global climate models. The error in the atmospheric mean state is found to be a possible reason for the poor MJO statistics in the simulation. Nevertheless, even with a large error in the mean state, the multi-year simulation captures two MJO events previously found to be initiated by extratropical influences. However, the model does not reproduce a third event, whose initiation is not directly influenced by the extratropics. This implies that in the absence of dynamical interactions between the MJO and the lateral boundary conditions, the error in the mean state could be sufficient to prevent the MJO initiation. To explore this third MJO event further, a series of sensitivity tests are conducted. These tests show that the simulation of this event is neither critically influenced by the cumulus parameterization employed, nor the initial conditions when the model is integrated 2 weeks prior to the MJO initiation. The model captures this event when the MJO signal is already present in the initial conditions. The use of high-resolution sea surface temperature does not improve the simulation of the third MJO event. A higher-resolution nested domain covering the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and including a cloud

  19. Model of cap-dependent translation initiation in sea urchin: a step towards the eukaryotic translation regulation network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellé, Robert; Prigent, Sylvain; Siegel, Anne; Cormier, Patrick

    2010-03-01

    The large and rapid increase in the rate of protein synthesis following fertilization of the sea urchin egg has long been a paradigm of translational control, an important component of the regulation of gene expression in cells. This translational up-regulation is linked to physiological changes that occur upon fertilization and is necessary for entry into first cell division cycle. Accumulated knowledge on cap-dependent initiation of translation makes it suited and timely to start integrating the data into a system view of biological functions. Using a programming environment for system biology coupled with model validation (named Biocham), we have built an integrative model for cap-dependent initiation of translation. The model is described by abstract rules. It contains 51 reactions involved in 74 molecular complexes. The model proved to be coherent with existing knowledge by using queries based on computational tree logic (CTL) as well as Boolean simulations. The model could simulate the change in translation occurring at fertilization in the sea urchin model. It could also be coupled with an existing model designed for cell-cycle control. Therefore, the cap-dependent translation initiation model can be considered a first step towards the eukaryotic translation regulation network.

  20. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Strom ohne Atom' and 'Moratorium Plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article is a short version of the ENET number 210359. This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Strom ohne Atom' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratorium Plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  1. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Strom ohne Atom' and 'Moratorium Plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Strom ohne Atom' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratorium Plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  2. Molecular dynamics modeling on the role of initial void geometry in a thin aluminum film under uniaxial tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Yi; Chen, Zengtao

    2015-01-01

    The effect of initial void geometry on damage progression in a thin aluminum film under uniaxial load is studied via molecular dynamics (MD) method. The embedded voids are with different initial geometries regarding shape, porosity and intervoid ligament distance (ILD). Major simulations are run upon twelve MD geometries with each containing 8–27 million atoms. The corresponding stress–strain relation is monitored during the microstructure evolution of the specimens. The critical stress to trigger the dislocation emission is found in line with the prediction of the Lubarda model. The simulation results reveal that the initial void geometry has substantial impact on the stress–strain relation especially for a specimen with larger initial porosity. (paper)

  3. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Sortir du nucleaire' and 'Moratoire-plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article is a short version of the ENET number 210359. This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Sortir du nucleaire' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratoire-plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  4. Study of initiation and growth of stress corrosion cracks. Quantitative characterization and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peyrat, Christine

    1997-01-01

    A phenomenological study of Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) cracks initiation and growth was carried out on a Z 2 CN 18.10 stainless steel in a boiling aqueous magnesium chloride solution at 153 deg. C. The characterization method exploits the morphological information (cracks shape and size distribution) available on a specimen after SCC test. This method, independent of any mechanistic hypothesis, led to the analytical representation of the growth rate of a given crack as a function of its depth and of the density of deeper cracks. The presence of this last parameter could be the expression of a 'shielding effect' of mechanical origin, exerted by the cracks of large size. A 'true initiation' rate was calculated by an extrapolation based on the analytical expression of the growth rate. This analytical representation of cracks initiation and growth accounts for the saturation observed in the experimental determination of the 'apparent initiation'. As time goes, the number of cracks deeper than a given threshold depth tends towards a limit which depends very strongly on the chosen threshold. This saturation effect can be interpreted as exclusively due to the way the small cracks propagate, as the 'true initiation' rate can be expressed versus time by a simple power law. In the case of slow strain rate tests, it is shown that the kinetic parameters characteristic of initiation and growth depend on the applied elongation rate. In particular, the initial crack growth rate increases with elongation rate. The validity domains of the proposed expressions have been specified by means of SCC tests carried out under different types of mechanical loading. (author) [fr

  5. The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative: A Funding Model for Science, Engineering, and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    The Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a massive ecological event, resulted in the tragic loss of 11 lives, and an environmental release of more than 130 million gallons of crude oil. Approximately 1.8 million gallons of dispersants were used in remediation efforts. An immediate response by BP was to establish a ten-year research program, with funding of 500 million. The funding was to determine the impact and long-term ecological and public health effects of oil spills and to develop improved preparation in the event of future oil or gas release into the environment. This Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), established by BP, provided independent leadership for both the program and administration of the 500 million funding, and the Research Board provides oversight, assisted by excellent staff. The Research Board of the GoMRI comprises twenty scientists, many of whom have prior scientific research administrative expertise. The Research Board, in accordance with its charge, develops research programs and carries out their evaluation and oversight, employing the peer review and operational principles of the National Science Foundation and the National Academies of Science. With these guiding principles, the Research Board established procedures for conflict of interest oversight and requesting and evaluating research programs. It has also focused on communicating the research findings accurately and responsibly. The GoMRI Research Board operates with transparency and ensures availability of all scientific results and data. GoMRI, currently midway through its 10-year mandate, has funded more than 3,000 scientists, representing 278 institutions in 42 states and 17 countries, who have produced more than 1,000 peer-reviewed publications to date. The Research Board is exploring mechanisms by which the GoMRI science findings can be communicated to the broader community and the public and to continue availability of data when the program has ended. A major contribution

  6. Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuhong Wang; Qin Liu; Jianrong Tang; Wenbin Cao; Xiaozhong Li

    2014-01-01

    A combination method of optimization of the back-ground value and optimization of the initial item is proposed. The sequences of the unbiased exponential distribution are simulated and predicted through the optimization of the background value in grey differential equations. The principle of the new information priority in the grey system theory and the rationality of the initial item in the original GM(1,1) model are ful y expressed through the improvement of the initial item in the proposed time response function. A numerical example is employed to il ustrate that the proposed method is able to simulate and predict sequences of raw data with the unbiased exponential distribution and has better simulation performance and prediction precision than the original GM(1,1) model relatively.

  7. Modeling time to recovery and initiating event frequency for loss of off-site power incidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1988-01-01

    Industry data representing the time to recovery of loss of off-site power at nuclear power plants for 63 incidents caused by plant-centered losses, grid losses, or severe weather losses are fit with exponential, lognormal, gamma and Weibull probability models. A Bayesian analysis is used to compare the adequacy of each of these models and to provide uncertainty bounds on each of the fitted models. A composite model that combines the probability models fitted to each of the three sources of data is presented as a method for predicting the time to recovery of loss of off-site power. The composite model is very general and can be made site specific by making adjustments on the models used, such as might occur due to the type of switchyard configuration or type of grid, and by adjusting the weights on the individual models, such as might occur with weather conditions existing at a particular plant. Adjustments in the composite model are shown for different models used for switchyard configuration and for different weights due to weather. Bayesian approaches are also presented for modeling the frequency of initiating events leading to loss of off-site power. One Bayesian model assumes that all plants share a common incidence rate for loss of off-site power, while the other Bayesian approach models the incidence rate for each plant relative to the incidence rates of all other plants. Combining the Bayesian models for the frequency of the initiating events with the composite Bayesian model for recovery provides the necessary vehicle for a complete model that incorporates uncertainty into a probabilistic risk assessment

  8. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  9. Unravelling the influence of smoking initiation and cessation on premature mortality using a common latent factor model

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Balia; Andrew M. Jones

    2007-01-01

    Duration models for lifespan and smoking, that focus on the socio-economic gradient in smoking durations and length of life, are estimated controlling for individual-specific unobservable heterogeneity by means of a latent factor model. The latent factor influences the risk of starting and quitting smoking as well as the hazard of mortality. Frailty could in°uence smoking behaviour through two mechanisms: the effect of life expectancy on initiation of smok- ing and the impact of adverse healt...

  10. A model to determine the initial phase space of a clinical electron beam from measured beam data.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, J.J.M.; Korevaar, E.W.; Battum, L.J. van; Storchi, P.R.; Huizenga, H.

    2001-01-01

    Advanced electron beam dose calculation models for radiation oncology require as input an initial phase space (IPS) that describes a clinical electron beam. The IPS is a distribution in position, energy and direction of electrons and photons in a plane in front of the patient. A method is presented

  11. Experimental model of biofilm implant-related osteomyelitis to test combination biomaterials using biofilms as initial inocula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Dustin L; Haymond, Bryan S; Woodbury, Kassie L; Beck, J Peter; Moore, David E; Epperson, R Tyler; Bloebaum, Roy D

    2012-07-01

    Currently, the majority of animal models that are used to study biofilm-related infections use planktonic bacterial cells as initial inocula to produce positive signals of infection in biomaterials studies. However, the use of planktonic cells has potentially led to inconsistent results in infection outcomes. In this study, well-established biofilms of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus were grown and used as initial inocula in an animal model of a Type IIIB open fracture. The goal of the work was to establish, for the first time, a repeatable model of biofilm implant-related osteomyelitis, wherein biofilms were used as initial inocula to test combination biomaterials. Results showed that 100% of animals that were treated with biofilms developed osteomyelitis, whereas 0% of animals not treated with biofilm developed infection. The development of this experimental model may lead to an important shift in biofilm and biomaterials research by showing that when biofilms are used as initial inocula, they may provide additional insights into how biofilm-related infections in the clinic develop and how they can be treated with combination biomaterials to eradicate and/or prevent biofilm formation. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. The importance of stakeholder-initiatives for business models in short food supply chains: the case of the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wubben, E.F.M.; Fondse, M.; Pascucci, S.

    2013-01-01

    While the interest in Short Food Supply Chains (SFSCs) is growing, we still await management studies that explore the impact of stakeholders of SFSCs in substantial numbers. This article investigates the differences in the business models of SFSCs that may be attributed to the initiator-stakeholder,

  13. Understanding Changes in Modeled Land Surface Characteristics Prior to Lightning-Initiated Holdover Fire Breakout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Christopher J.; Case, Jonathan L.; Hain, Christopher R.; White, Kristopher; Wachter, J. Brent; Nauslar, Nicholas; MacNamara, Brittany

    2018-01-01

    Lightning initiated wildfires are only 16% of the total number of wildfires within the United States, but account for 56% of the acreage burned. One of the challenges with lightning-initiated wildfires is their ability to "holdover" which means smolder for up to 2+ weeks before breaking out into a full fledged fire. This work helps characterize the percentage of holdover events due to lightning, and helps quantify changes in the land surface characteristics to help understand trends in soil moisture and vegetation stress that potentially contribute to the fire breaking out into a full wildfire.

  14. LIQUIDUS TEMPERATURE AND ONE PERCENT CRYSTAL CONTENT MODELS FOR INITIAL HANFORD HLW GLASSES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vienna, John D.; Edwards, Tommy B.; Crum, Jarrod V.; Kim, Dong-Sang; Peeler, David K.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary models for liquidus temperature (TL) and temperature at 1 vol% crystal (T01) applicable to WTP HLW glasses in the spinel primary phase field were developed. A series of literature model forms were evaluated using consistent sets of data form model fitting and validation. For TL, the ion potential and linear mixture models performed best, while for T01 the linear mixture model out performed all other model forms. TL models were able to predict with smaller uncertainty. However, the lower T01 values (even with higher prediction uncertainties) were found to allow for a much broader processing envelope for WTP HLW glasses

  15. Highly Adoptable Improvement: A Practical Model and Toolkit to Address Adoptability and Sustainability of Quality Improvement Initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Christopher William; Goldmann, Don

    2018-03-01

    Failure to consider the impact of change on health care providers is a barrier to success. Initiatives that increase workload and have low perceived value are less likely to be adopted. A practical model and supporting tools were developed on the basis of existing theories to help quality improvement (QI) programs design more adoptable approaches. Models and theories from the diffusion of innovation and work stress literature were reviewed, and key-informant interviews and site visits were conducted to develop a draft Highly Adoptable Improvement (HAI) Model. A list of candidate factors considered for inclusion in the draft model was presented to an expert panel. A modified Delphi process was used to narrow the list of factors into main themes and refine the model. The resulting model and supporting tools were pilot tested by 16 improvement advisors for face validity and usability. The HAI Model depicts how workload and perceived value influence adoptability of QI initiatives. The supporting tools include an assessment guide and suggested actions that QI programs can use to help design interventions that are likely to be adopted. Improvement advisors reported good face validity and usability and found that the model and the supporting tools helped address key issues related to adoption and reported that they would continue to use them. The HAI Model addresses important issues regarding workload and perceived value of improvement initiatives. Pilot testing suggests that the model and supporting tools are helpful and practical in guiding design and implementation of adoptable and sustainable QI interventions. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Using a hybrid model to predict solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff with controlled drainage water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Juxiu; Hu, Bill X; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan

    2016-06-01

    The mixing layer theory is not suitable for predicting solute transfer from initially saturated soil to surface runoff water under controlled drainage conditions. By coupling the mixing layer theory model with the numerical model Hydrus-1D, a hybrid solute transfer model has been proposed to predict soil solute transfer from an initially saturated soil into surface water, under controlled drainage water conditions. The model can also consider the increasing ponding water conditions on soil surface before surface runoff. The data of solute concentration in surface runoff and drainage water from a sand experiment is used as the reference experiment. The parameters for the water flow and solute transfer model and mixing layer depth under controlled drainage water condition are identified. Based on these identified parameters, the model is applied to another initially saturated sand experiment with constant and time-increasing mixing layer depth after surface runoff, under the controlled drainage water condition with lower drainage height at the bottom. The simulation results agree well with the observed data. Study results suggest that the hybrid model can accurately simulate the solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff under controlled drainage water condition. And it has been found that the prediction with increasing mixing layer depth is better than that with the constant one in the experiment with lower drainage condition. Since lower drainage condition and deeper ponded water depth result in later runoff start time, more solute sources in the mixing layer are needed for the surface water, and larger change rate results in the increasing mixing layer depth.

  17. An Overview of the U.S. Better Buildings Initiative as a Model for Other Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xu [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group; Ge, Jing [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group; Feng, Wei [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group; Zhou, Nan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group

    2017-12-20

    This report offers a comprehensive overview of the U.S. Better Building Initiative, including the program structure, management and implementation. The report also summarizes lessons learned for a U.S. audience and offers approaches that might be replicated in China and elsewhere.

  18. Role of initial depth at basin margins in sequence architecture: field examples and computer models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Uličný, David; Nichols, G.; Waltham, D.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 3 (2002), s. 347-360 ISSN 0950-091X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/01/0629 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : basin margin * initial depth * sedimentation * depositional sequences Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.022, year: 2002

  19. Modelling cross-gender and sexual relations : Exploring the Soul Buddyz Edutainment Initiative in South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Cousins (Laura)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractHIV/AIDS among youth is a serious problem in South Africa. Cross-gender relations and associated constructs surrounding masculinity/femininity and sexuality are increasingly recognized as at the heart of the issue. Growing attention has thus been given to developing initiatives geared

  20. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance; Zavodsky, Brad; Case, Jon; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  1. Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

  2. Model development of SAS4A and investigation on the initiating phase consequences in LMFRs related with material motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niwa, H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper focuses on an analytical aspect of the initiating phase scenario and consequences of postulated core disruptive accident in liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors. An analytical code, SAS4A, has been developed at Argonne National Laboratory, and introduced to PNC. Improvement and validation effort have been performed for the mixed-oxide version of SAS4A at PNC. This paper describes firstly recent development of SAS4A's material motion related models briefly. A fission gas mass transfer model and solid fuel chunk jamming model are developed and introduced to SAS4A, and validated using CABRI-2 E13 experimental data. Secondly, an investigation of the mechanism of energetics in the initiating phase of an unprotected loss-of-flow accident has identified major control parameters which are intimately related to core design parameters and material motion phenomena. (author)

  3. Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Electric Field, Ring Current, Plasmasphere, and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamayunov, K. V.; Khazanov, G. V.; Liemohn, M. W.; Fok, M.-C.; Ridley, A. J.

    2009-01-01

    Further development of our self-consistent model of interacting ring current (RC) ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is presented. This model incorporates large scale magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and treats self-consistently not only EMIC waves and RC ions, but also the magnetospheric electric field, RC, and plasmasphere. Initial simulations indicate that the region beyond geostationary orbit should be included in the simulation of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. Additionally, a self-consistent description, based on first principles, of the ionospheric conductance is required. These initial simulations further show that in order to model the EMIC wave distribution and wave spectral properties accurately, the plasmasphere should also be simulated self-consistently, since its fine structure requires as much care as that of the RC. Finally, an effect of the finite time needed to reestablish a new potential pattern throughout the ionosphere and to communicate between the ionosphere and the equatorial magnetosphere cannot be ignored.

  4. Improving ingestion dose modelling for the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems: A Nordic Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Nielsen, Sven Poul; Thørring, Håvard

    2011-01-01

    A Nordic work group under the NKS-B activity PARDNOR has revised the input parameters in the ECOSYS model that is incorporated for ingestion dose modelling in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems. The new parameterisation takes into account recent measurement data, and targets the model f...

  5. Quantitative characterization of initiation and propagation in stress corrosion cracking. An approach of a phenomenological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raquet, O.

    1994-01-01

    A purely phenomenological study of stress corrosion cracking was performed using the couple Z2CN 18.10 (304L) austenitic stainless steel/boiling MgCl 2 aqueous solution. The exploitation of the morphological information (shape of the cracks and size distribution) available after constant elongation rate tests led to the proposal of an analytical expression of the crack initiation and growth rates. This representation allowed to quantitatively characterize the influence of the applied strain rate as well as the effect of corrosion inhibitors on the crack initiation and propagation phases. It can be used in the search for the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms as a 'riddle' for the determination of the rate controlling steps. As a matter of fact, no mechanistic hypothesis has been used for its development. (author)

  6. A model-based initial guess for estimating parameters in systems of ordinary differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dattner, Itai

    2015-12-01

    The inverse problem of parameter estimation from noisy observations is a major challenge in statistical inference for dynamical systems. Parameter estimation is usually carried out by optimizing some criterion function over the parameter space. Unless the optimization process starts with a good initial guess, the estimation may take an unreasonable amount of time, and may converge to local solutions, if at all. In this article, we introduce a novel technique for generating good initial guesses that can be used by any estimation method. We focus on the fairly general and often applied class of systems linear in the parameters. The new methodology bypasses numerical integration and can handle partially observed systems. We illustrate the performance of the method using simulations and apply it to real data. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Validation of the hdm models forcrack initiation and development, rutting and roughness of the pavement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjenović Slobodan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide practice recommends validation of the HDM models with some other software that can be used for comparison of the forecasting results. The program package MATLAB is used in this case, as it enables for modelling of all the HDM models. A statistic validation of the results of the forecasts concerning the condition of the pavements in HDM with the on-field measuring results was also performed. This paper shall present the results of the validation of the coefficients of calibration of the deterioration models in HDM 4 on the Macedonian highways.

  8. Can multivariate models based on MOAKS predict OA knee pain? Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna-Gómez, Carlos D.; Zanella-Calzada, Laura A.; Galván-Tejada, Jorge I.; Galván-Tejada, Carlos E.; Celaya-Padilla, José M.

    2017-03-01

    Osteoarthritis is the most common rheumatic disease in the world. Knee pain is the most disabling symptom in the disease, the prediction of pain is one of the targets in preventive medicine, this can be applied to new therapies or treatments. Using the magnetic resonance imaging and the grading scales, a multivariate model based on genetic algorithms is presented. Using a predictive model can be useful to associate minor structure changes in the joint with the future knee pain. Results suggest that multivariate models can be predictive with future knee chronic pain. All models; T0, T1 and T2, were statistically significant, all p values were 0.60.

  9. A hypothesis generation model of initiating events for nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawhney, R.S.; Dodds, H.L.; Schryver, J.C.; Knee, H.E.

    1989-01-01

    The goal of existing alarm-filtering models is to provide the operator with the most accurate assessment of patterns of annunciated alarms. Some models are based on event-tree analysis, such as DuPont's Diagnosis of Multiple Alarms. Other models focus on improving hypothesis generation by deemphasizing alarms not relevant to the current plant scenario. Many such models utilize the alarm filtering system as a basis of dynamic prioritization. The Lisp-based alarm analysis model presented in this paper was developed for the Advanced Controls Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to dynamically prioritize hypotheses via an AFS by incorporating an unannunciated alarm analysis with other plant-based concepts. The objective of this effort is to develop an alarm analysis model that would allow greater flexibility and more accurate hypothesis generation than the prototype fault diagnosis model utilized in the Integrated Reactor Operator/System (INTEROPS) model. INTEROPS is a time-based predictive model of the nuclear power plant operator, which utilizes alarm information in a manner similar to the human operator. This is achieved by recoding the knowledge base from the personal computer-based expert system shell to a common Lisp structure, providing the ability to easily modify both the manner in which the knowledge is structured as well as the logic by which the program performs fault diagnosis

  10. Convergence of a continuous BGK model for initial boundary-value problems for conservation laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Driss Seghir

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available We consider a scalar conservation law in the quarter plane. This equation is approximated in a continuous kinetic Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK model. The convergence of the model towards the unique entropy solution is established in the space of functions of bounded variation, using kinetic entropy inequalities, without special restriction on the flux nor on the equilibrium problem's data. As an application, we establish the hydrodynamic limit for a $2imes2$ relaxation system with general data. Also we construct a new family of convergent continuous BGK models with simple maxwellians different from the $chi$ models.

  11. EPA Supersites Program-related emissions-based particulate matter modeling: initial applications and advances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Armistead G

    2008-02-01

    One objective of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Supersite Program was to provide data that could be used to more thoroughly evaluate and improve air quality models, and then have those models used to address both scientific and policy-related issues dealing with air quality management. In this direction, modeling studies have used Supersites-related data and are reviewed here. Fine temporal resolution data have been used both to test model components (e.g., the inorganic thermodynamic routines) and air quality modeling systems (in particular, Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions [CAMx] applications). Such evaluations suggest that the inorganic thermodynamic approaches being used are accurate, as well as the description of sulfate production, although there are significant uncertainties in production of nitric acid, biogenic and ammonia emissions, secondary organic aerosol formation, and the ability to follow the formation and evolution of ultrafine particles. Model applications have investigated how PM levels will respond to various emissions controls, suggesting that nitrate will replace some of the reductions in sulfate particulate matter (PM), although the replacement is small in the summer. Although not part of the Supersite program, modeling being conducted by EPA, regional planning organizations, and states for policy purposes has benefited from the detailed data collected, and the PM models have advanced by their more widespread use.

  12. Integrated hydrological modelling of a managed coastal Mediterranean wetland (Rhone delta, France: initial calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Chauvelon

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of a heavily managed coastal Mediterranean wetland. The hydrosystem studied , called ``Ile de Camargue', is the central part of the Rhone river delta. It comprises flat agricultural drainage basins, marshes, and shallow brackish lagoons whose connection to the sea is managed. This hydrosystem is subject to strong natural hydrological variability due to the combination of a Mediterranean climate and the artificial hydrological regime imposed by flooded rice cultivation. To quantify the hydrological balance at different spatial and temporal scales, a simplified model is developed — including the basin and the lagoons — using a time step that enables the temporal dynamic to be reproduced that is adapted to data availability. This modelling task takes into account the functioning of the natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrosystem. A conceptual approach is used for modelling drainage from the catchment, using a GIS to estimate water input for rice irrigation. The lagoon system is modelled using a two-dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model. Simulated results from the hydrodynamic model run under various hydro-climatic forcing conditions (water level, wind speed and direction, sea connection are used to calculate hydraulic exchanges between lagoon sub units considered as boxes. Finally, the HIC ('Hydrologie de l’Ile de Camargue' conceptual model is applied to simulate the water inputs and exchanges between the different units, together with the salt balance in the hydrosystem during a calibration period. Keywords: water management,conceptual hydrological model, hydrodynamic model, box model, GIS, Rhone delta, Camargue.

  13. Self-Efficacy and Workaholism as Initiators of the Job Demands-Resources Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmi, Dina; Simbula, Silvia; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Depolo, Marco

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to investigate school principals' well-being by using the job demands-resources (JD-R) model as a theoretical framework. It aims at making a significant contribution to the development of this model by considering not only job demands and job resources, but also the role of personal resources and personal demands as…

  14. Comparison of the initial ETA gas propagation experiments with theoretical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambers, F.W.; Clark, J.C.; Fessenden, T.J.

    1982-04-20

    This report contains a description of the initial ETA propagation experiments in air at a beam current of 4.5 kA. The beam was observed to propagate at the pressures anticipated on the basis of previous theory and experiment. A comparison of measured net current waveforms with predictions of the PHOENIX code showed good agreement over the pressure range 0.1 to 200 torr. However, the beam was observed to expand with Z at a faster rate than theory predicts. Excessive transverse beam modulation at injection complicated the experiments and limited their comparison with theory.

  15. An initial boundary value problem for modeling a piezoelectric dipolar body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marin, Marin; Öchsner, Andreas

    2018-03-01

    This study deals with the first initial boundary value problem in elasticity of piezoelectric dipolar bodies. We consider the most general case of an anisotropic and inhomogeneous elastic body having a dipolar structure. For two different types of restrictions imposed on the problem data, we prove two results regarding the uniqueness of solution, by using a different but accessible method. Then, the mixed problem is transformed in a temporally evolutionary equation on a Hilbert space, conveniently constructed based on the problem data. With the help of a known result from the theory of semigroups of operators, the existence and uniqueness of the weak solution for this equation are proved.

  16. Comparison of the initial ETA gas propagation experiments with theoretical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chambers, F.W.; Clark, J.C.; Fessenden, T.J.

    1982-01-01

    This report contains a description of the initial ETA propagation experiments in air at a beam current of 4.5 kA. The beam was observed to propagate at the pressures anticipated on the basis of previous theory and experiment. A comparison of measured net current waveforms with predictions of the PHOENIX code showed good agreement over the pressure range 0.1 to 200 torr. However, the beam was observed to expand with Z at a faster rate than theory predicts. Excessive transverse beam modulation at injection complicated the experiments and limited their comparison with theory

  17. An Ontology of Quality Initiatives and a Model for Decentralized, Collaborative Quality Management on the (Semantic) World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This editorial provides a model of how quality initiatives concerned with health information on the World Wide Web may in the future interact with each other. This vision fits into the evolving "Semantic Web" architecture - ie, the prospective that the World Wide Web may evolve from a mess of unstructured, human-readable information sources into a global knowledge base with an additional layer providing richer and more meaningful relationships between resources. One first prerequisite for forming such a "Semantic Web" or "web of trust" among the players active in quality management of health information is that these initiatives make statements about themselves and about each other in a machine-processable language. I present a concrete model on how this collaboration could look, and provide some recommendations on what the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other policy makers in this framework could be. PMID:11772549

  18. Initialization of a fractional order identification algorithm applied for Lithium-ion battery modeling in time domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasser Eddine, Achraf; Huard, Benoît; Gabano, Jean-Denis; Poinot, Thierry

    2018-06-01

    This paper deals with the initialization of a non linear identification algorithm used to accurately estimate the physical parameters of Lithium-ion battery. A Randles electric equivalent circuit is used to describe the internal impedance of the battery. The diffusion phenomenon related to this modeling is presented using a fractional order method. The battery model is thus reformulated into a transfer function which can be identified through Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to ensure the algorithm's convergence to the physical parameters. An initialization method is proposed in this paper by taking into account previously acquired information about the static and dynamic system behavior. The method is validated using noisy voltage response, while precision of the final identification results is evaluated using Monte-Carlo method.

  19. FY17 Status Report on the Initial Development of a Constitutive Model for Grade 91 Steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messner, M. C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Phan, V. -T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sham, T. -L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Grade 91 is a candidate structural material for high temperature advanced reactor applications. Existing ASME Section III, Subsection HB, Subpart B simplified design rules based on elastic analysis are setup as conservative screening tools with the intent to supplement these screening rules with full inelastic analysis when required. The Code provides general guidelines for suitable inelastic models but does not provide constitutive model implementations. This report describes the development of an inelastic constitutive model for Gr. 91 steel aimed at fulfilling the ASME Code requirements and being included into a new Section III Code appendix, HBB-Z. A large database of over 300 experiments on Gr. 91 was collected and converted to a standard XML form. Five families of Gr. 91 material models were identified in the literature. Of these five, two are potentially suitable for use in the ASME code. These two models were implemented and evaluated against the experimental database. Both models have deficiencies so the report develops a framework for developing and calibrating an improved model. This required creating a new modeling method for representing changes in material rate sensitivity across the full ASME allowable temperature range for Gr. 91 structural components: room temperature to 650° C. On top of this framework for rate sensitivity the report describes calibrating a model for work hardening and softening in the material using genetic algorithm optimization. Future work will focus on improving this trial model by including tension/compression asymmetry observed in experiments and necessary to capture material ratcheting under zero mean stress and by improving the optimization and analysis framework.

  20. Formal Specification and Description Language and Message Sequence Chart to Model and Validate Session Initiation Protocol Services

    OpenAIRE

    Sa'ed Abed; Mohammad H. Al Shayeji; Ovais Ahmed; Sahel Alouneh

    2016-01-01

    Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) is a signaling layer protocol for building, adjusting and ending sessions among participants including Internet conferences, telephone calls and multimedia distribution. SIP facilitates user movement by proxying and forwarding requests to the present location of the user. In this paper, we provide a formal Specification and Description Language (SDL) and Message Sequence Chart (MSC) to model and define the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) SIP protocol a...

  1. Modeling the initiation of Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking in nickel base alloys 182 and 82 of Pressurized Water Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wehbi, Mickael

    2014-01-01

    Nickel base welds are widely used to assemble components of the primary circuit of Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) plants. International experience shows an increasing number of Stress Corrosion Cracks (SCC) in nickel base welds 182 and 82 which motivates the development of models predicting the time to SCC initiation for these materials. SCC involves several parameters such as materials, mechanics or environment interacting together. The goal of this study is to have a better understanding of the physical mechanisms occurring at grains boundaries involved in SCC. In-situ tensile test carried out on oxidized alloy 182 evidenced dispersion in the susceptibility to corrosion of grain boundaries. Moreover, the correlation between oxidation and cracking coupled with micro-mechanical simulations on synthetic polycrystalline aggregate, allowed to propose a cracking criterion of oxidized grain boundaries which is defined by both critical oxidation depth and local stress level. Due to the key role of intergranular oxidation in SCC and since significant dispersion is observed between grain boundaries, oxidation tests were performed on alloys 182 and 82 in order to model the intergranular oxidation kinetics as a function of chromium carbides precipitation, temperature and dissolved hydrogen content. The model allows statistical analyses and is embedded in a local initiation model. In this model, SCC initiation is defined by the cracking of the intergranular oxide and is followed by slow and fast crack growth until the crack depth reaches a given value. Simplifying assumptions were necessary to identify laws used in the SCC model. However, these laws will be useful to determine experimental conditions of future investigations carried out to improve the calibration used parameters. (author)

  2. An initial research on solute migration model coupled with adsorption of surface complexation in groundwater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian Tianwei; Chen Fanrong

    2003-01-01

    The influence of solution chemical action in groundwater on solute migration has attracted increasing public attention, especially adsorption action occurring on surface of solid phase and liquid phase, which has play a great role in solute migration. There are various interpretations on adsorption mechanism, in which surface complexion is one of successful hypothesis. This paper first establishes a geochemical model based on surface complexion and then coupled it with traditional advection-dispersion model to constitute a solute migration model, which can deal with surface complexion action. The simulated results fit very well with those obtained by the precursors, as compared with a published famous example, which indicates that the model set up by this paper is successful. (authors)

  3. Cairo city air quality research initiative part-i: A meteorological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-AAl, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    The modified meteorological model Hotmac (Higher order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation) is a three-dimensional and finite grid model developed primarily for simospheric motions and based on solving the conservation equations of mass momentum, energy and turbulent kinetic energy. The model is used for studying air quality of cairo cty and its surrounding to treat a domain that includes an urbanized area for understanding problems of air pollution. The acquired terrain (elevation) data for Egypt was obtained. The local and upper level geostrophic data were provided by rawinsonde of wind speed and direction, temperature,relative humidity, water vapour, and pressure The potential temperature was obtained by a computer program. The meteorological data was obtained for helwan site, about 20 kilometer south of cairo city. Three mested grids were used, with grids resolutions of 2 6 and 18 kilometers to cover a domain of approximately 360 km that extended from the red Sea to the mediterranean Sea

  4. Are adverse effects incorporated in economic models? An initial review of current practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, D; McDaid, C; Fonseca, T; Stock, C; Duffy, S; Woolacott, N

    2009-12-01

    To identify methodological research on the incorporation of adverse effects in economic models and to review current practice. Major electronic databases (Cochrane Methodology Register, Health Economic Evaluations Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, IDEAS, MEDLINE and Science Citation Index) were searched from inception to September 2007. Health technology assessment (HTA) reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme and published between 2004 and 2007 were also reviewed. The reviews of methodological research on the inclusion of adverse effects in decision models and of current practice were carried out according to standard methods. Data were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Of the 719 potentially relevant references in the methodological research review, five met the inclusion criteria; however, they contained little information of direct relevance to the incorporation of adverse effects in models. Of the 194 HTA monographs published from 2004 to 2007, 80 were reviewed, covering a range of research and therapeutic areas. In total, 85% of the reports included adverse effects in the clinical effectiveness review and 54% of the decision models included adverse effects in the model; 49% included adverse effects in the clinical review and model. The link between adverse effects in the clinical review and model was generally weak; only 3/80 (manipulation. Of the models including adverse effects, 67% used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79% used a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86% used one of these and 60% used both. Most models (83%) used utilities, but only two (2.5%) used solely utilities to incorporate adverse effects and were explicit that the utility captured relevant adverse effects; 53% of those models that included utilities derived them from patients on treatment and could therefore be interpreted as capturing adverse effects. In total

  5. Revision of Fontes & Garnier's model for the initial 14C content of dissolved inorganic carbon used in groundwater dating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Liang-Feng; Plummer, Niel

    2013-01-01

    The widely applied model for groundwater dating using 14C proposed by Fontes and Garnier (F&G) (Fontes and Garnier, 1979) estimates the initial 14C content in waters from carbonate-rock aquifers affected by isotopic exchange. Usually, the model of F&G is applied in one of two ways: (1) using a single 13C fractionation factor of gaseous CO2 with respect to a solid carbonate mineral, εg/s, regardless of whether the carbon isotopic exchange is controlled by soil CO2 in the unsaturated zone, or by solid carbonate mineral in the saturated zone; or (2) using different fractionation factors if the exchange process is dominated by soil CO2 gas as opposed to solid carbonate mineral (typically calcite). An analysis of the F&G model shows an inadequate conceptualization, resulting in underestimation of the initial 14C values (14C0) for groundwater systems that have undergone isotopic exchange. The degree to which the 14C0 is underestimated increases with the extent of isotopic exchange. Examples show that in extreme cases, the error in calculated adjusted initial 14C values can be more than 20% modern carbon (pmc). A model is derived that revises the mass balance method of F&G by using a modified model conceptualization. The derivation yields a “global” model both for carbon isotopic exchange dominated by gaseous CO2 in the unsaturated zone, and for carbon isotopic exchange dominated by solid carbonate mineral in the saturated zone. However, the revised model requires different parameters for exchange dominated by gaseous CO2 as opposed to exchange dominated by solid carbonate minerals. The revised model for exchange dominated by gaseous CO2 is shown to be identical to the model of Mook (Mook, 1976). For groundwater systems where exchange occurs both in the unsaturated zone and saturated zone, the revised model can still be used; however, 14C0 will be slightly underestimated. Finally, in carbonate systems undergoing complex geochemical reactions, such as oxidation of

  6. Initial virtual flight test for a dynamically similar aircraft model with control augmentation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linliang Guo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the validation requirements of flight control law for advanced aircraft, a wind tunnel based virtual flight testing has been implemented in a low speed wind tunnel. A 3-degree-of-freedom gimbal, ventrally installed in the model, was used in conjunction with an actively controlled dynamically similar model of aircraft, which was equipped with the inertial measurement unit, attitude and heading reference system, embedded computer and servo-actuators. The model, which could be rotated around its center of gravity freely by the aerodynamic moments, together with the flow field, operator and real time control system made up the closed-loop testing circuit. The model is statically unstable in longitudinal direction, and it can fly stably in wind tunnel with the function of control augmentation of the flight control laws. The experimental results indicate that the model responds well to the operator’s instructions. The response of the model in the tests shows reasonable agreement with the simulation results. The difference of response of angle of attack is less than 0.5°. The effect of stability augmentation and attitude control law was validated in the test, meanwhile the feasibility of virtual flight test technique treated as preliminary evaluation tool for advanced flight vehicle configuration research was also verified.

  7. A Survey: Time Travel in Deep Learning Space: An Introduction to Deep Learning Models and How Deep Learning Models Evolved from the Initial Ideas

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Haohan; Raj, Bhiksha

    2015-01-01

    This report will show the history of deep learning evolves. It will trace back as far as the initial belief of connectionism modelling of brain, and come back to look at its early stage realization: neural networks. With the background of neural network, we will gradually introduce how convolutional neural network, as a representative of deep discriminative models, is developed from neural networks, together with many practical techniques that can help in optimization of neural networks. On t...

  8. Initiation of sporulation in Clostridium difficile: a twist on the classic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Adrianne N; McBride, Shonna M

    2014-09-01

    The formation of dormant endospores is a complex morphological process that permits long-term survival in inhospitable environments for many Gram-positive bacteria. Sporulation for the anaerobic gastrointestinal pathogen Clostridium difficile is necessary for survival outside of the gastrointestinal tract of its host. While the developmental stages of spore formation are largely conserved among endospore-forming bacteria, the genus Clostridium appears to be missing a number of conserved regulators required for efficient sporulation in other spore-forming bacteria. Several recent studies have discovered novel mechanisms and distinct regulatory pathways that control the initiation of sporulation and early-sporulation-specific gene expression. These differences in regulating the decision to undergo sporulation reflects the unique ecological niche and environmental conditions that C. difficile inhabits and encounters within the mammalian host. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Application of expert system technology to nondestructive waste assay - initial prototype model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C. [Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1997-11-01

    Expert system technology has been identified as a technique useful for filling certain types of technology/capability gaps in existing waste nondestructive assay (NDA) applications. In particular, expert system techniques are being investigated with the intent of providing on-line evaluation of acquired data and/or directed acquisition of data in a manner that mimics the logic and decision making process a waste NDA expert would employ. The space from which information and data sources utilized in this process is much expanded with respect to the algorithmic approach typically utilized in waste NDA. Expert system technology provides a mechanism to manage and reason with this expanded information/data set. The material presented in this paper concerns initial studies and a resultant prototype expert system that incorporates pertinent information, and evaluation logic and decision processes, for the purpose of validating acquired waste NDA measurement assays. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  10. Application of expert system technology to nondestructive waste assay - initial prototype model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Expert system technology has been identified as a technique useful for filling certain types of technology/capability gaps in existing waste nondestructive assay (NDA) applications. In particular, expert system techniques are being investigated with the intent of providing on-line evaluation of acquired data and/or directed acquisition of data in a manner that mimics the logic and decision making process a waste NDA expert would employ. The space from which information and data sources utilized in this process is much expanded with respect to the algorithmic approach typically utilized in waste NDA. Expert system technology provides a mechanism to manage and reason with this expanded information/data set. The material presented in this paper concerns initial studies and a resultant prototype expert system that incorporates pertinent information, and evaluation logic and decision processes, for the purpose of validating acquired waste NDA measurement assays. 6 refs., 6 figs

  11. Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

    2013-04-01

    The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the

  12. Keeping it real--building an ROI model for an ambulatory EMR initiative that the physician practices espouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Rńee; Donnelly, John T

    2006-01-01

    The ambulatory electronic medical record initiative at Magic Valley Regional Medical Center (MVRMC) in South Central Idaho underwent a rigorous product evaluation process that resulted in one of the market-leading EMR products being selected for implementation. MVRMC includes four business entities, including a 213-bed regional hospital and a 19-practice management services organization. Early in the process, the organization viewed buy-in from its physicians as a critical success factor. The physicians had been integral to product selection, and it was equally important for them to trust the economic model for its acquisition-especially because it was likely that they would be asked to put "some skin in the game." To make this initiative economically feasible, MVRMC received a grant from Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality based on the potential impact of the endeavor on healthcare delivery in the region. However, because the functional analysis did not result in the selection of the least expensive product, the AHRQ grant would only help defray the startup expenses, but not ongoing support and maintenance expenses after implementation; these costs would be borne by anticipated increases in the practice's revenue or reduction in its operating expenses. The ROI model would need to explain how each practice, from the single physician specialist to an almost 20-physician family practice, could pay for the desirable outcomes discussed during the selection phase of the project. The physicians, who had participated in technology initiatives in the past, were skeptical that cost-justifying an IT system was realistic, even though they recognized the potential benefits it could have on the quality and consistency of the care. Because some process standardization within and between practices would be needed to use electronic charting effectively, it was important that the ROI model did not outweigh the benefits of an as-yet untested operational workflow that

  13. Puzzling initial conditions in the R{sub h} = ct model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengochea, Gabriel R. [CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires (Argentina); Leon, Gabriel [Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, PabI, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2016-11-15

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard ΛCDM model. Lately, it has been argued that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R{sub h} = ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to study whether there is a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early Universe in the R{sub h} = ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. During the analysis of the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios, we run into deep issues which indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial quantum perturbations within the R{sub h} = ct model. (orig.)

  14. BISON Modeling of Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiments in a Static Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folsom, Charles P.; Jensen, Colby B.; Williamson, Richard L.; Woolstenhulme, Nicolas E.; Ban, Heng; Wachs, Daniel M.

    2016-09-01

    In conjunction with the restart of the TREAT reactor and the design of test vehicles, modeling and simulation efforts are being used to model the response of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts under reactivity insertion accident (RIA) conditions. The purpose of this work is to model a baseline case of a 10 cm long UO2-Zircaloy fuel rodlet using BISON and RELAP5 over a range of energy depositions and with varying reactor power pulse widths. The results show the effect of varying the pulse width and energy deposition on both thermal and mechanical parameters that are important for predicting failure of the fuel rodlet. The combined BISON/RELAP5 model captures coupled thermal and mechanical effects on the fuel-to-cladding gap conductance, cladding-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient and water temperature and pressure that would not be capable in each code individually. These combined effects allow for a more accurate modeling of the thermal and mechanical response in the fuel rodlet and thermal-hydraulics of the test vehicle.

  15. Initial assessment of a model relating intratumoral genetic heterogeneity to radiological morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noterdaeme, O; Kelly, M; Friend, P; Soonowalla, Z; Steers, G; Brady, M

    2010-01-01

    Tumour heterogeneity has major implications for tumour development and response to therapy. Tumour heterogeneity results from mutations in the genes responsible for mismatch repair or maintenance of chromosomal stability. Cells with different genetic properties may grow at different rates and exhibit different resistance to therapeutic interventions. To date, there exists no approach to non-invasively assess tumour heterogeneity. Here we present a biologically inspired model of tumour growth, which relates intratumoral genetic heterogeneity to gross morphology visible on radiological images. The model represents the development of a tumour as a set of expanding spheres, each sphere representing a distinct clonal centre, with the sprouting of new spheres corresponding to new clonal centres. Each clonal centre may possess different characteristics relating to genetic composition, growth rate and response to treatment. We present a clinical example for which the model accurately tracks tumour growth and shows the correspondence to genetic variation (as determined by array comparative genomic hybridisation). One clinical implication of our work is that the assessment of heterogeneous tumours using Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (RECIST) or volume measurements may not accurately reflect tumour growth, stability or the response to treatment. We believe that this is the first model linking the macro-scale appearance of tumours to their genetic composition. We anticipate that our model will provide a more informative way to assess the response of heterogeneous tumours to treatment, which is of increasing importance with the development of novel targeted anti-cancer treatments. PMID:19690073

  16. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-11-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  17. Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Voigt

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (~635 million years before present with the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This is the most sophisticated model ever applied to Snowball initiation. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global-mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI, whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI is prevented by doubling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global-mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. While uncertainties in important processes and parameters such as clouds and sea-ice albedo suggest that the Snowball Earth bifurcation point differs between climate models, our results contradict previous findings that Snowball Earth initiation would require much stronger forcings.

  18. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-01-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  19. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-03-01

    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  20. Source modelling of train noise - Literature review and some initial measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Xuetao; Jonasson, Hans; Holmberg, Kjell

    2000-07-01

    A literature review of source modelling of railway noise is reported. Measurements on a special test rig at Surahammar and on the new railway line between Arlanda and Stockholm City are reported and analyzed. In the analysis the train is modelled as a number of point sources with or without directivity and each source is combined with analytical sound propagation theory to predict the sound propagation pattern best fitting the measured data. Wheel/rail rolling noise is considered to be the most important noise source. The rolling noise can be modelled as an array of moving point sources, which have a dipole-like horizontal directivity and some kind of vertical directivity. In general it is necessary to distribute the point sources on several heights. Based on our model analysis the source heights for the rolling noise should be below the wheel axles and the most important height is about a quarter of wheel diameter above the railheads. When train speeds are greater than 250 km/h aerodynamic noise will become important and even dominant. It may be important for low frequency components only if the train speed is less than 220 km/h. Little data are available for these cases. It is believed that aerodynamic noise has dipole-like directivity. Its spectrum depends on many factors: speed, railway system, type of train, bogies, wheels, pantograph, presence of barriers and even weather conditions. Other sources such as fans, engine, transmission and carriage bodies are at most second order noise sources, but for trains with a diesel locomotive engine the engine noise will be dominant if train speeds are less than about 100 km/h. The Nord 2000 comprehensive model for sound propagation outdoors, together with the source model that is based on the understandings above, can suitably handle the problems of railway noise propagation in one-third octave bands although there are still problems left to be solved.

  1. Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2015-06-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

  2. The second generation model of greenhouse gas emissions: background and initial development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, R.; Wise, M.A.; Edmonds, J.A.; Pitcher, H.M.; Barns, D.

    1992-01-01

    The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions has made enormous progress during the course of the past decade. We have progressed from the use of simple time-trend extrapolations to the analysis of emissions of several greenhouse gases with parallel but independent behavioral and optimization models of energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and land-use systems. But our ability to examine potential future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions is limited because modeling tools adequate to the task of integrating analyses of technologies and human activities on a global scale with regional detail, including energy production and consumption, agriculture, manufacture, capital formation, and land-use, along with the interdependencies between these categories, do not yet exist. The first generation of models were specialty models which focused on a particular aspect of the emissions problem without regard to how that activity interacted with other human and natural activities. The natural science pertaining to greenhouse warming now emphasizes the variety of gases associated with potential changes in the radiative composition of the atmosphere: CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, N 2 O, NO x , SO 2 , VOC's, chlorofluorocarbons, (CFC's) and CFC substitutes. Human activities generating the emissions of these gases are interdependent; actions taken to limit emissions from one segment of the economy will affect other segments of the economy. Policy issues such as the recycling of revenues from a carbon tax, land-use changes due to to tree-planting to sequestrate carbon dioxide or extensive development of biomass energy resources, require a more comprehensive modeling approach in which the relationship between technology, institutions, land use, economics and human activity is explicitly represented. The purpose of this paper is to describe briefly the design of a model which is capable of addressing greenhouse gas emissions and the consequences of alternative policy options. 7 refs

  3. Equilibrium star formation in a constant Q disc: model optimization and initial tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zheng; Meurer, Gerhardt R.; Heckman, Timothy M.; Thilker, David A.; Zwaan, Martin A.

    2013-10-01

    We develop a model for the distribution of the interstellar medium (ISM) and star formation in galaxies based on recent studies that indicate that galactic discs stabilize to a constant stability parameter, which we combine with prescriptions of how the phases of the ISM are determined and for the star formation law (SFL). The model predicts the gas surface mass density and star formation intensity of a galaxy given its rotation curve, stellar surface mass density and the gas velocity dispersion. This model is tested on radial profiles of neutral and molecular ISM surface mass density and star formation intensity of 12 galaxies selected from the H I Nearby Galaxy Survey sample. Our tests focus on intermediate radii (0.3 to 1 times the optical radius) because there are insufficient data to test the outer discs and the fits are less accurate in detail in the centre. Nevertheless, the model produces reasonable agreement with the ISM mass and star formation rate integrated over the central region in all but one case. To optimize the model, we evaluate four recipes for the stability parameter, three recipes for apportioning the ISM into molecular and neutral components, and eight versions of the SFL. We find no clear-cut best prescription for the two-fluid (gas and stars) stability parameter Q2f and therefore for simplicity, we use the Wang and Silk approximation (QWS). We found that an empirical scaling between the molecular-to-neutral ISM ratio (Rmol) and the stellar surface mass density proposed by Leroy et al. works marginally better than the other two prescriptions for this ratio in predicting the ISM profiles, and noticeably better in predicting the star formation intensity from the ISM profiles produced by our model with the SFLs we tested. Thus, in the context of our modelled ISM profiles, the linear molecular SFL and the two-component SFL work better than the other prescriptions we tested. We incorporate these relations into our `constant Q disc' model.

  4. Effect of the initial stage of annealing on modeling of enthalpy relaxation in a hyperquenched glass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yanfei; Guo, Xiaoju; Yue, Yuanzheng

    2013-01-01

    One of the major challenges in glass relaxation study is to establish a universal model describing the enthalpy relaxation in both the hyperquenched glass (HQG) (i.e., far from equilibrium) and the partially annealed hyperquenched glass(AHQG). In particular, the detailed features of the enthalpy ...... proposed composite relaxation function [L. Hornboell, et al., Chem. Phys. Lett. 1-3 (2010) 37] is a reasonable approach for describing those features. In addition, our modeling results imply that the structural heterogeneity plays a crucial role in relaxation of HQG....

  5. (Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Lu; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ji, Linying; Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some-but not all-of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

  6. 3D Modeling and Printing in History/Social Studies Classrooms: Initial Lessons and Insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloy, Robert; Trust, Torrey; Kommers, Suzan; Malinowski, Allison; LaRoche, Irene

    2017-01-01

    This exploratory study examines the use of 3D technology by teachers and students in four middle school history/social studies classrooms. As part of a university-developed 3D Printing 4 Teaching & Learning project, teachers integrated 3D modeling and printing into curriculum topics in world geography, U.S. history, and government/civics.…

  7. 25 Years of DECOVALEX - Research Advances and Lessons Learned from an International Model Comparison Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of an international research and model comparison collaboration (DECOVALEX) for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. Prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and is also relevant for a range of other sub-surface engineering activities. DECOVALEX research activities have been supported by a large number of radioactive-waste-management organizations and regulatory authorities. Research teams from more than a dozen international partner organizations have participated in the comparative modeling evaluation of complex field and laboratory experiments in the UK, Switzerland, Japan, France and Sweden. Together, these tasks (1) have addressed a wide range of relevant issues related to engineered and natural system behavior in argillaceous, crystalline and other host rocks, (2) have yielded in-depth knowledge of coupled THM and THMC processes associated with nuclear waste repositories and wider geo-engineering applications, and (3) have advanced the capability, as well as demonstrated the suitability, of numerical simulation models for quantitative analysis.

  8. Modeled Watershed Runoff Associated with Variations in Precipitation Data, with Implications for Contaminant Fluxes: Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precipitation is one of the primary forcing functions of hydrologic and watershed fate and transport models; however, in light of advances in precipitation estimates across watersheds, data remain highly uncertain. A wide variety of simulated and observed precipitation data are a...

  9. A zebrafish model of chordoma initiated by notochord-driven expression of HRASV12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Alexa; Vasilyev, Aleksandr; Tomar, Ritu; Selig, Martin K; Nielsen, G Petur; Peterson, Randall T; Drummond, Iain A; Haber, Daniel A

    2014-07-01

    Chordoma is a malignant tumor thought to arise from remnants of the embryonic notochord, with its origin in the bones of the axial skeleton. Surgical resection is the standard treatment, usually in combination with radiation therapy, but neither chemotherapeutic nor targeted therapeutic approaches have demonstrated success. No animal model and only few chordoma cell lines are available for preclinical drug testing, and, although no druggable genetic drivers have been identified, activation of EGFR and downstream AKT-PI3K pathways have been described. Here, we report a zebrafish model of chordoma, based on stable transgene-driven expression of HRASV12 in notochord cells during development. Extensive intra-notochordal tumor formation is evident within days of transgene expression, ultimately leading to larval death. The zebrafish tumors share characteristics of human chordoma as demonstrated by immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy. The mTORC1 inhibitor rapamycin, which has some demonstrated activity in a chordoma cell line, delays the onset of tumor formation in our zebrafish model, and improves survival of tumor-bearing fish. Consequently, the HRASV12-driven zebrafish model of chordoma could enable high-throughput screening of potential therapeutic agents for the treatment of this refractory cancer. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  10. A zebrafish model of chordoma initiated by notochord-driven expression of HRASV12

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexa Burger

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Chordoma is a malignant tumor thought to arise from remnants of the embryonic notochord, with its origin in the bones of the axial skeleton. Surgical resection is the standard treatment, usually in combination with radiation therapy, but neither chemotherapeutic nor targeted therapeutic approaches have demonstrated success. No animal model and only few chordoma cell lines are available for preclinical drug testing, and, although no druggable genetic drivers have been identified, activation of EGFR and downstream AKT-PI3K pathways have been described. Here, we report a zebrafish model of chordoma, based on stable transgene-driven expression of HRASV12 in notochord cells during development. Extensive intra-notochordal tumor formation is evident within days of transgene expression, ultimately leading to larval death. The zebrafish tumors share characteristics of human chordoma as demonstrated by immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy. The mTORC1 inhibitor rapamycin, which has some demonstrated activity in a chordoma cell line, delays the onset of tumor formation in our zebrafish model, and improves survival of tumor-bearing fish. Consequently, the HRASV12-driven zebrafish model of chordoma could enable high-throughput screening of potential therapeutic agents for the treatment of this refractory cancer.

  11. Diagram, a Learning Environment for Initiation to Object-Oriented Modeling with UML Class Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Py, Dominique; Auxepaules, Ludovic; Alonso, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents Diagram, a learning environment for object-oriented modelling (OOM) with UML class diagrams. Diagram an open environment, in which the teacher can add new exercises without constraints on the vocabulary or the size of the diagram. The interface includes methodological help, encourages self-correcting and self-monitoring, and…

  12. Downscaling Ocean Conditions: Initial Results using a Quasigeostrophic and Realistic Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

    2014-05-01

    Previous theoretical work (Henshaw et al, 2003) has shown that the small-scale modes of variability of solutions of the unforced, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation, and Burgers' equation, can be reconstructed with surprisingly high accuracy from the time history of a few of the large-scale modes. Motivated by this theoretical work we first describe a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large scales in order to recover the small scale oceanic variability. The method is based on nudging in specific wavebands and frequencies and is similar to the so-called spectral nudging method that has been used successfully for atmospheric downscaling with limited area models (e.g. von Storch et al., 2000). The validity of the method is tested using a quasigestrophic model configured to simulate a double ocean gyre separated by an unstable mid-ocean jet. It is shown that important features of the ocean circulation including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and associated pinch-off eddies can indeed be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scales modes. The benefit of assimilating additional time series of observations from a limited number of locations, that alone are too sparse to significantly improve the recovery of the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques, is also demonstrated using several twin experiments. The final part of the study outlines the application of the approach using a realistic high resolution (1/36 degree) model, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) modeling framework, configured for the Scotian Shelf of the east coast of Canada. The large scale conditions used in this application are obtained from the HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) + NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) global 1/12 degree analysis product. Henshaw, W., Kreiss, H.-O., Ystrom, J., 2003. Numerical experiments on the interaction between the larger- and the small-scale motion of

  13. Thermodynamic and structural models compared with the initial dissolution rates of open-quotes SONclose quotes glass samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tovena, I.; Advocat, T.; Ghaleb, D.; Vernaz, E.; Larche, F.

    1994-01-01

    The experimentally determined initial dissolution rate R 0 of nuclear glass was correlated with thermodynamic parameters and structural parameters. The initial corrosion rates of six open-quotes R7T7close quotes glass samples measured at 100 degrees C in a Soxhlet device were correlated with the glass free hydration energy and the glass formation enthalpy. These correlations were then tested with a group of 26 SON glasses selected for their wide diversity of compositions. The thermodynamic models provided a satisfactory approximation of the initial dissolution rate determined under Soxhlet conditions for SON glass samples that include up to 15 wt% of boron and some alumina. Conversely, these models are inaccurate if the boron concentration exceeds 15 wt% and the glass contains no alumina. Possible correlations between R 0 and structural parameters, such as the boron coordination number and the number of nonbridging oxygen atoms, were also investigated. The authors show that R 0 varies inversely with the number of 4-coordinate boron atoms; conversely, the results do not substantiate published reports of a correlation between R 0 and the number of nonbridging oxygen atoms

  14. Ensemble-based flash-flood modelling: Taking into account hydrodynamic parameters and initial soil moisture uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique

    2018-05-01

    Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.

  15. Evaluation of local stress for stress corrosion crack initiation by three-dimensional polycrystal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki; Kitamura, Takayuki

    2006-01-01

    In order to understand the initiation behavior of microstructurally small cracks in a stress corrosion cracking condition, it is important to know the tensile normal stress acting on the grain boundary (normal G.B. stress). The local stress in a polycrystalline body is greatly influenced by deformation constraint which is caused by anisotropic and/or inhomogeneous property of each grain. In present study, the local normal G.B. stress on bi- and tri-crystal bodies and a three-dimensional polycrystalline body consisting of 100 grains were evaluated by the finite element method under a remote uniform tensile stress condition. The polycrystalline body was generated by using a Monte Carlo procedure and random orientations were assigned to each grain. It was revealed that the local normal G.B. stress on the polycrystalline body is inhomogeneous under uniform applied stress. The stress tends to be large near the triple points due to the deformation constraint caused by adjacent grains, even though the grain boundary inclination to the load axis has large influence. It was also shown that particular high stress was not observed at corners of the polycrystalline body. (author)

  16. Model study of initial adsorption of SO{sub 2} on calcite and dolomite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malaga-Starzec, Katarina; Panas, Itai; Lindqvist, Oliver

    2004-01-30

    The rate of calcareous stone degradation is to a significant extent controlled by their surface chemistry with SO{sub 2}. Initial surface sulphite is converted to a harmful gypsum upon, e.g. NO{sub 2} catalysed oxidation. However, it has been observed by scanning electron microscopy that the lateral distributions of gypsum crystals differ between calcitic and dolomitic marbles. The first-principles density functional theory is employed to understand the origin of these fundamentally different morphologies. Here, the stability differences of surface sulphite at calcite CaCO{sub 3} (s) and dolomite Ca{sub x}Mg{sub 1-x}CO{sub 3} (s) are determined. A qualitative difference in surface sulphite stability, favouring the former, is reported. This is taken to imply that calcitic micro-crystals embedded in a dolomitic matrix act as sinks in the surface sulphation process, controlled by SO{sub 2} diffusion. The subsequent formation of gypsum under such conditions will not require SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} (aq) ion transport. This explains the homogeneous distribution of gypsum observed on the calcitic micro-crystals in dolomite. In contrast, sulphation on purely calcitic marbles never reaches such high SO{sub 2} coverage. Rather, upon oxidation, SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} (aq) transport to nucleation centres, such as grain boundaries, is required for the growth of gypsum crystals.

  17. Model study of initial adsorption of SO2 on calcite and dolomite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malaga-Starzec, Katarina; Panas, Itai; Lindqvist, Oliver

    2004-01-01

    The rate of calcareous stone degradation is to a significant extent controlled by their surface chemistry with SO 2 . Initial surface sulphite is converted to a harmful gypsum upon, e.g. NO 2 catalysed oxidation. However, it has been observed by scanning electron microscopy that the lateral distributions of gypsum crystals differ between calcitic and dolomitic marbles. The first-principles density functional theory is employed to understand the origin of these fundamentally different morphologies. Here, the stability differences of surface sulphite at calcite CaCO 3 (s) and dolomite Ca x Mg 1-x CO 3 (s) are determined. A qualitative difference in surface sulphite stability, favouring the former, is reported. This is taken to imply that calcitic micro-crystals embedded in a dolomitic matrix act as sinks in the surface sulphation process, controlled by SO 2 diffusion. The subsequent formation of gypsum under such conditions will not require SO 4 2- (aq) ion transport. This explains the homogeneous distribution of gypsum observed on the calcitic micro-crystals in dolomite. In contrast, sulphation on purely calcitic marbles never reaches such high SO 2 coverage. Rather, upon oxidation, SO 4 2- (aq) transport to nucleation centres, such as grain boundaries, is required for the growth of gypsum crystals

  18. Installation and initial operation of the Suss Advanced Lithography Model 4 X-ray Stepper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, G.M.; Wallace, J.P.; Brodsky, E.L.; Leonard, Q.J.; Reilly, M.T.; Anderson, P.D.; Lee, W.K.; Cerrina, F.; Simon, K.

    1996-01-01

    A Suss Advanced Lithography X-ray Stepper designed as a production tool for high throughput in the sub-quarter-micron device range has been installed and is being commissioned at the University of Wisconsin close-quote s Center for X-ray Lithography (CXrL). Illumination for the stepper is provided by a scanning beamline designed and constructed at CXrL. The beamline optical components are a gold-coated plane mirror, a 1-micron-thick silicon carbide window, and a 25-micron-thick beryllium exit window. Beamline features include synchronized scanning of the mirror and exit window, variable scan velocity to compensate for reflectivity changes as a function of incident angle, and a horizontal oscillation of the beryllium window during vertical scanning to average the effects of nonuniform beryllium window transmission. A helium purged snout transports the x-rays from the beamline exit window, to the exposure plane in the stepper. This snout is retractable to allow for the loading and unloading of masks into the stepper. The motions of the mirror, exit window, and snout are computer controlled by a LABVIEW program that communicates with the stepper control software. The design of the beamline and initial operating experiences with the beamline and stepper will be discussed. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  19. Determination of the Support Level of Local Organizations in a Model Forest Initiative: Do Local Stakeholders Have Willingness to Be Involved in the Model Forest Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Tolunay

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Voluntary cooperation and the support of stakeholders carry a major importance in the development of Model Forests. The identification of the support level of local organizations as stakeholders in the Bucak Model Forest initiative, located in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, constitutes the theme of this study. Within this scope, the views of the stakeholders comprising local government units (LGUs, non-governmental organizations (NGOs, village councils (VCs, professional organizations (POs and forest products enterprises (FPEs located in the district of Bucak were collected by utilizing a survey technique. The data were analysed by using non-parametric statistical analyses due to the absence of a normal distribution. The results show that the information provided about the Model Forest concept to the stakeholders located in the district on the Bucak Model Forest initiative was identified as a factor impacting the support level. Moreover, it was also observed that the stakeholders were more willing to provide advisory support rather than financial support. NGOs and VCs were identified as stakeholders who could not provide financial support due to their restricted budgets. We discuss the benefits for a Model Forest initiative of establishing international cooperation to strengthen the local and regional sustainable development process.

  20. Updated global soil map for the Weather Research and Forecasting model and soil moisture initialization for the Noah land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    DY, C. Y.; Fung, J. C. H.

    2016-08-01

    A meteorological model requires accurate initial conditions and boundary conditions to obtain realistic numerical weather predictions. The land surface controls the surface heat and moisture exchanges, which can be determined by the physical properties of the soil and soil state variables, subsequently exerting an effect on the boundary layer meteorology. The initial and boundary conditions of soil moisture are currently obtained via National Centers for Environmental Prediction FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data, which are collected operationally in 1° by 1° resolutions every 6 h. Another input to the model is the soil map generated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (FAO-UNESCO) soil database, which combines several soil surveys from around the world. Both soil moisture from the FNL analysis data and the default soil map lack accuracy and feature coarse resolutions, particularly for certain areas of China. In this study, we update the global soil map with data from Beijing Normal University in 1 km by 1 km grids and propose an alternative method of soil moisture initialization. Simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that spinning-up the soil moisture improves near-surface temperature and relative humidity prediction using different types of soil moisture initialization. Explanations of that improvement and improvement of the planetary boundary layer height in performing process analysis are provided.

  1. Evaluation of COSMO-ART in the Framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Lea; Brunner, Dominik; Im, Ulas; Galmarini, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) coordinated by the EC-JRC and US-EPA, promotes since 2008 research on regional air quality model evaluation across the atmospheric modelling communities of Europe and North America. AQMEII has now reached its Phase 2 that is dedicated to the evaluation of on-line coupled chemistry-meteorology models as opposed to Phase 1 where only off-line models were considered. At European level, AQMEII collaborates with the COST Action "European framework for on-line integrated air quality and meteorology modelling" (EuMetChem). All European groups participating in AQMEII performed simulations over the same spatial domain (Europe at a resolution of about 20 km) and using the same simulation strategy (e.g. no nudging allowed) and the same input data as much as possible. The initial and boundary conditions (IC/BC) were shared between all groups. Emissions were provided by the TNO-MACC database for anthropogenic emissions and the FMI database for biomass burning emissions. Chemical IC/BC data were taken from IFS-MOZART output, and meteorological IC/BC from the ECWMF global model. Evaluation data sets were collected by the Joint Research Center (JRC) and include measurements from surface in situ networks (AirBase and EMEP), vertical profiles from ozone sondes and aircraft (MOZAIC), and remote sensing (AERONET, satellites). Since Phase 2 focuses on on-line coupled models, a special effort is devoted to the detailed speciation of particulate matter components, with the goal of studying feedback processes. For the AQMEII exercise, COSMO-ART has been run with 40 levels of vertical resolution, and a chemical scheme that includes the SCAV module of Knote and Brunner (ACP 2013) for wet-phase chemistry and the SOA treatment according to VBS (volatility basis set) approach (Athanasopoulou et al., ACP 2013). The COSMO-ART evaluation shows that, next to a good performance in the meteorology, the gas phase chemistry is well

  2. Atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide from SCIAMACHY satellite data: initial comparison with chemistry and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Buchwitz

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The remote sensing of the atmospheric greenhouse gases methane (CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2 in the troposphere from instrumentation aboard satellites is a new area of research. In this manuscript, results obtained from observations of the up-welling radiation in the near-infrared by SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT are presented. Vertical columns of CH4, CO2 and oxygen (O2 have been retrieved and the (air or O2-normalised CH4 and CO2 column amounts, the dry air column averaged mixing ratios XCH4 and XCO2 derived. In this manuscript the first results, obtained by using the version 0.4 of the Weighting Function Modified (WFM DOAS retrieval algorithm applied to SCIAMACHY data, are described and compared with global models. For the set of individual cloud free measurements over land the standard deviation of the difference with respect to the models is in the range ~100–200 ppbv (5–10% for XCH4 and ~14–32 ppmv (4–9% for XCO2. The inter-hemispheric difference of the methane mixing ratio, as determined from single day data, is in the range 30–110 ppbv and in reasonable agreement with the corresponding model data (48–71 ppbv. The weak inter-hemispheric difference of the CO2 mixing ratio can also be detected with single day data. The spatiotemporal pattern of the measured and the modelled XCO2 are in reasonable agreement. However, the amplitude of the difference between the maximum and the minimum for SCIAMACHY XCO2 is about ±20 ppmv which is about a factor of four larger than the variability of the model data which is about ±5 ppmv. More studies are needed to explain the observed differences. The XCO2 model field shows low CO2 concentrations beginning of January 2003 over a spatially extended CO2 sink region located in southern tropical/sub-tropical Africa. The SCIAMACHY data also show low CO2 mixing ratios over this area. According to the model the sink region becomes a source region about six months later and exhibits higher mixing ratios

  3. Model of porous aluminium oxide growth during initial stage of anodization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryslanova, E. M.; Alfimov, A. V.; Chivilikhin, S. A.

    2014-10-01

    Currently, the development of nanotechnology and metamaterials requires the ability to obtain regular self-assembled structures with different parameters. One such structure is porous alumina in which the pores grow perpendicular to the substrate and are hexagonally packed. Pore size and the distance between them can be varied depending on the anodization voltage, the electrolyte and the anodization time (pore diameter - from 2 to 350 nm, the distance between the pores - from 5 to 50 nm). At the moment, there are different models describing the process of anodizing aluminum, in this paper we propose a model that takes into account the effect of layers of aluminum, aluminum oxide, and the electrolyte, as well as the influence of the effect of surface diffusion.

  4. Modelling and Initial Validation of the DYMO Routing Protocol for Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espensen, Kristian Asbjørn Leth; Kjeldsen, Mads Keblov; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2008-01-01

    A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is an infrastructureless network established by a set of mobile devices using wireless communication. The Dynamic MANET On-demand (DYMO) protocol is a routing protocol for multi-hop communication in MANETs currently under development by the Internet Engineering Task...... Force (IETF). This paper presents a Coloured Petri Net (CPN) model of the mandatory parts of the DYMO protocol, and shows how scenario-based state space exploration has been used to validate key properties of the protocol. Our CPN modelling and verification work has spanned two revisions of the DYMO...... protocol specification and have had direct impact on the most recent version of the protocol specification....

  5. Reactive flow modeling of initial density effect on divergence JB-9014 detonation driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xin; Huang, Kuibang; Zheng, Miao

    2016-06-01

    A serious of experiments were designed and the results were represented in this paper, in which 2mm thickness cooper shells were impacted by explosives named JB-9014 with different densities, and the surface velocities of the OFHC shells were measured. The comparison of experimental data shows the free surface velocity of the OFHC shell increase with the IHE density. Numerical modeling, which occupied phenomenological reactive flow rate model using the two-dimensional Lagrange hydrodynamic code, were carried out to simulate the above experiments, and empirical adjustments on detonation velocity and pressure and Pier Tang's adjustments on EOS of detonation products were both introduced in our numerical simulation work. The computational results agree well with that of experiments, and the numerical results with original parameters of products and the adjusted ones of JB-9014 could describe the density effect distinctly.

  6. Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-25

    univariate zonal wind EOF analysis, the mean number of continuing events exceeds 437 observations, though the observed number falls within the 95...year simulation period using the truncated, 464 observed SSTs. Approximately two-thirds of the observed events fall within 20-100 days with a 465...Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF 745 model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor . Soc.. 134, 1337

  7. Molecular Theory of Detonation Initiation: Insight from First Principles Modeling of the Decomposition Mechanisms of Organic Nitro Energetic Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyshevsky, Roman V; Sharia, Onise; Kuklja, Maija M

    2016-02-19

    This review presents a concept, which assumes that thermal decomposition processes play a major role in defining the sensitivity of organic energetic materials to detonation initiation. As a science and engineering community we are still far away from having a comprehensive molecular detonation initiation theory in a widely agreed upon form. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical methods allow for a constructive and rigorous approach to design and test the theory or at least some of its fundamental building blocks. In this review, we analyzed a set of select experimental and theoretical articles, which were augmented by our own first principles modeling and simulations, to reveal new trends in energetic materials and to refine known existing correlations between their structures, properties, and functions. Our consideration is intentionally limited to the processes of thermally stimulated chemical reactions at the earliest stage of decomposition of molecules and materials containing defects.

  8. Molecular Theory of Detonation Initiation: Insight from First Principles Modeling of the Decomposition Mechanisms of Organic Nitro Energetic Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman V. Tsyshevsky

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This review presents a concept, which assumes that thermal decomposition processes play a major role in defining the sensitivity of organic energetic materials to detonation initiation. As a science and engineering community we are still far away from having a comprehensive molecular detonation initiation theory in a widely agreed upon form. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical methods allow for a constructive and rigorous approach to design and test the theory or at least some of its fundamental building blocks. In this review, we analyzed a set of select experimental and theoretical articles, which were augmented by our own first principles modeling and simulations, to reveal new trends in energetic materials and to refine known existing correlations between their structures, properties, and functions. Our consideration is intentionally limited to the processes of thermally stimulated chemical reactions at the earliest stage of decomposition of molecules and materials containing defects.

  9. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  10. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  11. An Animal Model of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Created with Peritoneal Patch: Technique and Initial Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maynar, Manuel; Qian Zhong; Hernandez, Javier; Sun Fei; Miguel, Carmen de; Crisostomo, Veronica; Uson, Jesus; Pineda, Luis-Fernando; Espinoza, Carmen G.; Castaneda, Wilfrido R.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an abdominal aortic aneurysm model that more closely resembles themorphology of human aneurysms with potential for further growth of the sac. An infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) model was created with a double-layered peritoneal patch in 27 domestic swine. The patch,measuring in average from 6 to 12 cm in length and from 2 to 3 cm in width, was sutured to the edge of an aortotomy. Pre- and postsurgical digital subtraction aortograms (DSA) were obtained to document the appearance and dimensions of the aneurysm. All animals were followed with DSA for up to 5 months. Laparoscopic examination enhanced by the use of laparoscopic ultrasound was also carried out in 2 animals to assess the aneurysm at 30 and 60 days following surgery. Histological examination was performed on 4 animals. All the animals that underwent the surgical creation of the AAA survived the surgical procedure.Postsurgical DSA demonstrated the presence of the AAA in all animals,defined as more than 50% increase in diameter. The aneurysmal mean diameter increased from the baseline of 10.27 ± 1.24 to 16.69± 2.29 mm immediately after surgery, to 27.6 ± 6.59 mm at 14 days, 32.45 ± 8.76 mm at 30 days (p <0.01), and subsequently decreased to 25.98 ± 3.75 mm at 60 days. A total of 15 animals died of aneurysmal rupture that occurred more frequently in the long aneurysms (≥6 cm in length) than the short aneurysms (<6 cm in length) during the first 2 weeks after surgery(p < 0.05). No rupture occurred beyond 16 days after surgery. Four animals survived and underwent 60-day angiographic follow-up. Laparoscopic follow-up showed strong pulses, a reddish external appearance and undetectable suture lines on the aneurysmal wall. On pathology, the patches were well incorporated into the aortic wall, the luminal wall appeared almost completely endothelialized, and cellular and matrix proliferation were noted in the aneurysmal wall. A reproducible technique for the

  12. The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and

  13. Application of the GRAAL model to leaching experiments with SON68 nuclear glass in initially pure water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frugier, P.; Chave, T.; Gin, S.; Lartigue, J.-E.

    2009-01-01

    Based on a review of the current state of knowledge concerning the aqueous alteration of SON68 nuclear glass we have proposed a mechanistic model, GRAAL (Glass Reactivity with Allowance for the Alteration Layer) [P. Frugier, S. Gin, Y. Minet, T. Chave, B. Bonin, N. Godon, J.E. Lartigue, P. Jollivet, A. Ayral, L. De Windt, G. Santarini, J. Nucl. Mater. 380 (2008) 8]. This article describes how the GRAAL model hypotheses are solved using a calculation code coupling chemistry and transport. The geochemical solution of this model combines three major phenomena: chemical equilibria in solution, water and ion transport by convection or diffusion, and element diffusion through the passivating reactive interphase. The model results are compared with experimental data for SON68 glass leached in initially pure water both in a closed system and in renewed media. The comparison shows the model very satisfactorily accounts for variations in the pH and the element concentrations in solution as a function of time, the glass surface area in contact with solution, and the solution renewal rate. This success is due to the fact that the diffusion of elements through the alteration gel is taken into account in the model. This mechanism cannot be disregarded under most experimental conditions - if only to predict the solution pH - and must therefore be an integral part of the geochemical model.

  14. Description and initial evaluation of an educational and psychosocial support model for adults with congenitally malformed hearts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rönning, Helén; Nielsen, Niels Erik; Swahn, Eva; Strömberg, Anna

    2011-05-01

    Various programmes for adults with congenitally malformed hearts have been developed, but detailed descriptions of content, rationale and goals are often missing. The aim of this study was to describe and make an initial evaluation of a follow-up model for adults with congenitally malformed hearts, focusing on education and psychosocial support by a multidisciplinary team (EPS). The model is described in steps and evaluated with regards to perceptions of knowledge, anxiety and satisfaction. The EPS model included a policlinic visit to the physician/nurse (medical consultation, computer-based and individual education face-to-face as well as psychosocial support) and a 1-month telephone follow-up. Fifty-five adults (mean age 34, 29 women) with the nine most common forms of congenitally malformed hearts participated in the EPS model as well as the 3-months follow-up. Knowledge about congenital heart malformation had increased in 40% of the participants at the 3-months follow-up. This study describes and evaluates a model that combines a multidisciplinary approach and computer-based education for follow-up of adults with congenitally malformed hearts. The EPS model was found to increase self-estimated knowledge, but further evaluations need to be conducted to prove patient-centred outcomes over time. The model is now ready to be implemented in adults with congenitally malformed hearts. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The initiation and tectonic regimes of the Cenozoic extension in the Bohai Bay Basin, North China revealed by numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lu; Qiu, Nansheng

    2017-06-01

    In this study the dynamic aspects of the Cenozoic extension in the Bohai Bay Basin are considered in the context of initial thickness of the crust and lithosphere, tectonic force, strain rate and thermal rheology, which are directly or indirectly estimated from a pure shear extensional model. It is accordingly reasonable to expect that, in the Bohai Bay Basin, the thickness variation could be present prior to the initiation of extension. The extensional deformation is localized by a thickness variation of the crust and lithosphere and the heterogeneity of the initial thickness plays an important role in rifting dynamics. The onset of rifting requires a critical tectonic force (initial tectonic force) to be applied, which then immediately begins to decay gradually. Rifting will only occur when the total effective buoyancy force of the subducting slab reaches a critical level, after a certain amount of subduction taking place. The magnitude of the tectonic force decreases with time in the early phase of rifting, which indicates the weakening due to the increase in geothermal gradient. In order to deform the continental lithosphere within the currently accepted maximum magnitude of the force derived from subducted slab roll-back, the following conditions should be satisfied: (1) the thickness of the continental lithosphere is significantly thin and less than 125 km and (2) the lithosphere has a wet and hot rheology, which provides implications for rheological layering in continental lithosphere. Our results are strongly supported by the ;crème brûlée; model, in which the lower crust and mantle are relatively ductile.

  16. Crack initiation behavior of neutron irradiated model and commercial stainless steels in high temperature water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephenson, Kale J., E-mail: kalejs@umich.edu; Was, Gary S.

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Environmental constant extension rate tensile tests were performed on neutron irradiated steel. • Percentage of intergranular cracking quantified the cracking susceptibility. • Cracking susceptibility varied with test environment, solute addition, and cold work. • No singular microstructural change could explain increases in cracking susceptibility with irradiation dose. • The increment of yield strength due to irradiation correlated well with cracking susceptibility. -- Abstract: The objective of this study was to isolate key factors affecting the irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) susceptibility of eleven neutron-irradiated austenitic stainless steel alloys. Four commercial purity and seven high purity stainless steels were fabricated with specific changes in composition and microstructure, and irradiated in a fast reactor spectrum at 320 °C to doses between 4.4 and 47.5 dpa. Constant extension rate tensile (CERT) tests were performed in normal water chemistry (NWC), hydrogen water chemistry (HWC), or primary water (PW) environments to isolate the effects of environment, elemental solute addition, alloy purity, alloy heat, alloy type, cold work, and irradiation dose. The irradiated alloys showed a wide variation in IASCC susceptibility, as measured by the relative changes in mechanical properties and crack morphology. Cracking susceptibility measured by %IG was enhanced in oxidizing environments, although testing in the lowest potential environment caused an increase in surface crack density. Alloys containing solute addition of Ni or Ni + Cr exhibited no IASCC. Susceptibility was reduced in materials cold worked prior to irradiation, and increased with increasing irradiation dose. Irradiation-induced hardening was accounted for by the dislocation loop microstructure, however no relation between crack initiation and radiation hardening was found.

  17. Hydrological modelling for flood forecasting: Calibrating the post-fire initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, C.; Makropoulos, C.; Mimikou, M.

    2015-10-01

    Floods and forest fires are two of the most devastating natural hazards with severe socioeconomic, environmental as well as aesthetic impacts on the affected areas. Traditionally, these hazards are examined from different perspectives and are thus investigated through different, independent systems, overlooking the fact that they are tightly interrelated phenomena. In fact, the same flood event is more severe, i.e. associated with increased runoff discharge and peak flow and decreased time to peak, if it occurs over a burnt area than that occurring over a land not affected by fire. Mediterranean periurban areas, where forests covered with flammable vegetation coexist with agricultural land and urban zones, are typical areas particularly prone to the combined impact of floods and forest fires. Hence, the accurate assessment and effective management of post-fire flood risk becomes an issue of priority. The research presented in this paper aims to develop a robust methodological framework, using state of art tools and modern technologies to support the estimation of the change in time of five representative hydrological parameters for post-fire conditions. The proposed methodology considers both longer- and short-term initial conditions in order to assess the dynamic evolution of the selected parameters. The research focuses on typical Mediterranean periurban areas that are subjected to both hazards and concludes with a set of equations that associate post-fire and pre-fire conditions for five Fire Severity (FS) classes and three soil moisture states. The methodology has been tested for several flood events on the Rafina catchment, a periurban catchment in Eastern Attica (Greece). In order to validate the methodology, simulated hydrographs were produced and compared against available observed data. Results indicate a close convergence of observed and simulated flows. The proposed methodology is particularly flexible and thus easily adaptable to catchments with similar

  18. DCE-MRI of hepatocellular carcinoma: perfusion quantification with Tofts model versus shutter-speed model--initial experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jajamovich, Guido H; Huang, Wei; Besa, Cecilia; Li, Xin; Afzal, Aneela; Dyvorne, Hadrien A; Taouli, Bachir

    2016-02-01

    To quantify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) perfusion and flow with the fast exchange regime-allowed Shutter-Speed model (SSM) compared to the Tofts model (TM). In this prospective study, 25 patients with HCC underwent DCE-MRI. ROIs were placed in liver parenchyma, portal vein, aorta and HCC lesions. Signal intensities were analyzed employing dual-input TM and SSM models. ART (arterial fraction), K (trans) (contrast agent transfer rate constant from plasma to extravascular extracellular space), ve (extravascular extracellular volume fraction), kep (contrast agent intravasation rate constant), and τi (mean intracellular water molecule lifetime) were compared between liver parenchyma and HCC, and ART, K (trans), v e and k ep were compared between models using Wilcoxon tests and limits of agreement. Test-retest reproducibility was assessed in 10 patients. ART and v e obtained with TM; ART, ve, ke and τi obtained with SSM were significantly different between liver parenchyma and HCC (p < 0.04). Parameters showed variable reproducibility (CV range 14.7-66.5% for both models). Liver K (trans) and ve; HCC ve and kep were significantly different when estimated with the two models (p < 0.03). Our results show differences when computed between the TM and the SSM. However, these differences are smaller than parameter reproducibilities and may be of limited clinical significance.

  19. Angular sensitivity of modeled scientific silicon charge-coupled devices to initial electron direction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plimley, Brian, E-mail: brian.plimley@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Coffer, Amy; Zhang, Yigong [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Vetter, Kai [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Nuclear Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-11

    Previously, scientific silicon charge-coupled devices (CCDs) with 10.5-μm pixel pitch and a thick (650 μm), fully depleted bulk have been used to measure gamma-ray-induced fast electrons and demonstrate electron track Compton imaging. A model of the response of this CCD was also developed and benchmarked to experiment using Monte Carlo electron tracks. We now examine the trade-off in pixel pitch and electronic noise. We extend our CCD response model to different pixel pitch and readout noise per pixel, including pixel pitch of 2.5 μm, 5 μm, 10.5 μm, 20 μm, and 40 μm, and readout noise from 0 eV/pixel to 2 keV/pixel for 10.5 μm pixel pitch. The CCD images generated by this model using simulated electron tracks are processed by our trajectory reconstruction algorithm. The performance of the reconstruction algorithm defines the expected angular sensitivity as a function of electron energy, CCD pixel pitch, and readout noise per pixel. Results show that our existing pixel pitch of 10.5 μm is near optimal for our approach, because smaller pixels add little new information but are subject to greater statistical noise. In addition, we measured the readout noise per pixel for two different device temperatures in order to estimate the effect of temperature on the reconstruction algorithm performance, although the readout is not optimized for higher temperatures. The noise in our device at 240 K increases the FWHM of angular measurement error by no more than a factor of 2, from 26° to 49° FWHM for electrons between 425 keV and 480 keV. Therefore, a CCD could be used for electron-track-based imaging in a Peltier-cooled device.

  20. The OH-initiated oxidation of atmospheric peroxyacetic acid: Experimental and model studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huihui; Wang, Yin; Li, Huan; Huang, Liubin; Huang, Dao; Shen, Hengqing; Xing, Yanan; Chen, Zhongming

    2017-09-01

    Peroxyacetic acid (PAA, CH3C(O)OOH) plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry, serving as reactive oxidant and affecting radical recycling. However, previous studies revealed an obvious gap between modelled and observed concentrations of atmospheric PAA, which may be partly ascribed to the uncertainty in the kinetics and mechanism of OH-oxidation. In this study, we measured the rate constant of OH radical reaction with PAA (kPAA+OH) and investigated the products in order to develop a more robust atmospheric PAA chemistry. Using the relative rates technique and employing toluene and meta-xylene as reference compounds, the kPAA+OH was determined to be (9.4-11.9) × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 at 298 K and 1 atm, which is about (2.5-3.2) times larger than that parameter used in Master Chemical Mechanism v3.3.1 (MCM v3.3.1) (3.70 × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1). Incorporation of a box model and MCM v3.3.1 with revised PAA chemistry represented a better simulation of atmospheric PAA observed during Wangdu Campaign 2014, a rural site in North China Plain. It is found that OH-oxidation is an important sink of atmospheric PAA in this rural area, accounting for ∼30% of the total loss. Moreover, the major terminal products of PAA-OH reaction were identified as formaldehyde (HCHO) and formic acid (HC(O)OH). The modelled results show that both primary and secondary chemistry play an important role in the large HCHO and HC(O)OH formation under experimental conditions. There should exist the channel of methyl H-abstraction for PAA-OH reaction, which may also provide routes to HCHO and HC(O)OH formation.

  1. System modeling for the advanced thermionic initiative single cell thermionic space nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H.H.; Lewis, B.R.; Klein, A.C.; Pawlowski, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Incore thermionic space reactor design concepts which operate in a nominal power output range of 20 to 40 kWe are described. Details of the neutronics, thermionic, shielding, and heat rejection performance are presented. Two different designs, ATI-Driven and ATI-Driverless, are considered. Comparison of the core overall performance of these two configurations are described. The comparison of these two cores includes the overall conversion efficiency, reactor mass, shield mass, and heat rejection mass. An overall system design has been developed to model the advanced incore thermionic energy conversion based nuclear reactor systems for space applications in this power range

  2. Modelling of initial stages of interstitial solid solution decomposition in bcc metals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanter, M S

    1982-01-01

    By means of a model of deformation interaction of interstitial atoms added by interlocking of the nearest positions the configuration of cluster of alien atoms intruded into octahedral ..cap alpha..-Fe, V, Nb and Ta interstitially sites is computerized. The cluster structure is determined by elastic properties, of the crystal lattice of the metal-solvent. Clusters in ..cap alpha..-Fe have a plate form in a plane (001) of half lattice period width, in V, Nb and Ta - of monatomic plate in a plane (110). Clusters of interstitials must be sufficiently stable and arise even in solutions low concentration.

  3. Initial Comparison of Direct and Legacy Modeling Approaches for Radial Core Expansion Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shemon, Emily R.

    2016-01-01

    Radial core expansion in sodium-cooled fast reactors provides an important reactivity feedback effect. As the reactor power increases due to normal start up conditions or accident scenarios, the core and surrounding materials heat up, causing both grid plate expansion and bowing of the assembly ducts. When the core restraint system is designed correctly, the resulting structural deformations introduce negative reactivity which decreases the reactor power. Historically, an indirect procedure has been used to estimate the reactivity feedback due to structural deformation which relies upon perturbation theory and coupling legacy physics codes with limited geometry capabilities. With advancements in modeling and simulation, radial core expansion phenomena can now be modeled directly, providing an assessment of the accuracy of the reactivity feedback coefficients generated by indirect legacy methods. Recently a new capability was added to the PROTEUS-SN unstructured geometry neutron transport solver to analyze deformed meshes quickly and directly. By supplying the deformed mesh in addition to the base configuration input files, PROTEUS-SN automatically processes material adjustments including calculation of region densities to conserve mass, calculation of isotopic densities according to material models (for example, sodium density as a function of temperature), and subsequent re-homogenization of materials. To verify the new capability of directly simulating deformed meshes, PROTEUS-SN was used to compute reactivity feedback for a series of contrived yet representative deformed configurations for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor design. The indirect legacy procedure was also performed to generate reactivity feedback coefficients for the same deformed configurations. Interestingly, the legacy procedure consistently overestimated reactivity feedbacks by 35% compared to direct simulations by PROTEUS-SN. This overestimation indicates that the legacy procedures are in fact

  4. Initial Comparison of Direct and Legacy Modeling Approaches for Radial Core Expansion Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shemon, Emily R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-10

    Radial core expansion in sodium-cooled fast reactors provides an important reactivity feedback effect. As the reactor power increases due to normal start up conditions or accident scenarios, the core and surrounding materials heat up, causing both grid plate expansion and bowing of the assembly ducts. When the core restraint system is designed correctly, the resulting structural deformations introduce negative reactivity which decreases the reactor power. Historically, an indirect procedure has been used to estimate the reactivity feedback due to structural deformation which relies upon perturbation theory and coupling legacy physics codes with limited geometry capabilities. With advancements in modeling and simulation, radial core expansion phenomena can now be modeled directly, providing an assessment of the accuracy of the reactivity feedback coefficients generated by indirect legacy methods. Recently a new capability was added to the PROTEUS-SN unstructured geometry neutron transport solver to analyze deformed meshes quickly and directly. By supplying the deformed mesh in addition to the base configuration input files, PROTEUS-SN automatically processes material adjustments including calculation of region densities to conserve mass, calculation of isotopic densities according to material models (for example, sodium density as a function of temperature), and subsequent re-homogenization of materials. To verify the new capability of directly simulating deformed meshes, PROTEUS-SN was used to compute reactivity feedback for a series of contrived yet representative deformed configurations for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor design. The indirect legacy procedure was also performed to generate reactivity feedback coefficients for the same deformed configurations. Interestingly, the legacy procedure consistently overestimated reactivity feedbacks by 35% compared to direct simulations by PROTEUS-SN. This overestimation indicates that the legacy procedures are in fact

  5. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

    2018-06-01

    Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent

  6. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface–hydrology models in cold regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sapriza-Azuri

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs, which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme, as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology modelling system, to (1 characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2 assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3 develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to

  7. Modeling Nucleation and Grain Growth in the Solar Nebula: Initial Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuth, Joseph A.; Paquette, J. A.; Ferguson, F. T.

    2010-01-01

    The primitive solar nebula was a violent and chaotic environment where high energy collisions, lightning, shocks and magnetic re-connection events rapidly vaporized some fraction of nebular dust, melted larger particles while leaving the largest grains virtually undisturbed. At the same time, some tiny grains containing very easily disturbed noble gas signatures (e.g., small, pre-solar graphite or SiC particles) never experienced this violence, yet can be found directly adjacent to much larger meteoritic components (chondrules or CAIs) that did. Additional components in the matrix of the most primitive carbonaceous chondrites and in some chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles include tiny nebular condensates, aggregates of condensates and partially annealed aggregates. Grains formed in violent transient events in the solar nebula did not come to equilibrium with their surroundings. To understand the formation and textures of these materials as well as their nebular abundances we must rely on Nucleation Theory and kinetic models of grain growth, coagulation and annealing. Such models have been very uncertain in the past: we will discuss the steps we are taking to increase their reliability.

  8. Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

    2017-04-01

    Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

  9. The social paediatrics initiative: a RICHER model of primary health care for at risk children and their families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Sabrina T; Lynam, M Judith; Khan, Koushambhi B; Scott, Lorine; Loock, Christine

    2012-10-04

    The Responsive Interdisciplinary Child-Community Health Education and Research (RICHER) initiative is an intersectoral and interdisciplinary community outreach primary health care (PHC) model. It is being undertaken in partnership with community based organizations in order to address identified gaps in the continuum of health services delivery for 'at risk' children and their families. As part of a larger study, this paper reports on whether the RICHER initiative is associated with increased: 1) access to health care for children and families with multiple forms of disadvantage and 2) patient-reported empowerment. This study provides the first examination of a model of delivering PHC, using a Social Paediatrics approach. This was a mixed-methods study, using quantitative and qualitative approaches; it was undertaken in partnership with the community, both organizations and individual providers. Descriptive statistics, including logistic regression of patient survey data (n=86) and thematic analyses of patient interview data (n=7) were analyzed to examine the association between patient experiences with the RICHER initiative and parent-reported empowerment. Respondents found communication with the provider clear, that the provider explained any test results in a way they could understand, and that the provider was compassionate and respectful. Analysis of the survey and in-depth interview data provide evidence that interpersonal communication, particularly the provider's interpersonal style (e.g., being treated as an equal), was very important. Even after controlling for parents' education and ethnicity, the provider's interpersonal style remained positively associated with parent-reported empowerment (p<0.01). This model of PHC delivery is unique in its purposeful and required partnerships between health care providers and community members. This study provides beginning evidence that RICHER can better meet the health and health care needs of people, especially

  10. A Social Audit Model for Agro-biotechnology Initiatives in Developing Countries: Accounting for Ethical, Social, Cultural, and Commercialization Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obidimma Ezezika

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available There is skepticism and resistance to innovations associated with agro-biotechnology projects, leading to the possibility of failure. The source of the skepticism is complex, but partly traceable to how local communities view genetically engineered crops, public perception on the technology’s implications, and views on the role of the private sector in public health and agriculture, especially in the developing world. We posit that a governance and management model in which ethical, social, cultural, and commercialization issues are accounted for and addressed is important in mitigating risk of project failure and improving the appropriate adoption of agro-biotechnology in sub-Saharan Africa. We introduce a social audit model, which we term Ethical, Social, Cultural and Commercialization (ESC2 auditing and which we developed based on feedback from a number of stakeholders. We lay the foundation for its importance in agro-biotechnology development projects and show how the model can be applied to projects run by Public Private Partnerships. We argue that the implementation of the audit model can help to build public trust through facilitating project accountability and transparency. The model also provides evidence on how ESC2 issues are perceived by various stakeholders, which enables project managers to effectively monitor and improve project performance. Although this model was specifically designed for agro-biotechnology initiatives, we show how it can also be applied to other development projects.

  11. Mind-to-mind heteroclinic coordination: Model of sequential episodic memory initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afraimovich, V. S.; Zaks, M. A.; Rabinovich, M. I.

    2018-05-01

    Retrieval of episodic memory is a dynamical process in the large scale brain networks. In social groups, the neural patterns, associated with specific events directly experienced by single members, are encoded, recalled, and shared by all participants. Here, we construct and study the dynamical model for the formation and maintaining of episodic memory in small ensembles of interacting minds. We prove that the unconventional dynamical attractor of this process—the nonsmooth heteroclinic torus—is structurally stable within the Lotka-Volterra-like sets of equations. Dynamics on this torus combines the absence of chaos with asymptotic instability of every separate trajectory; its adequate quantitative characteristics are length-related Lyapunov exponents. Variation of the coupling strength between the participants results in different types of sequential switching between metastable states; we interpret them as stages in formation and modification of the episodic memory.

  12. Learning Together 1: an educational model for training GPs, paediatricians: initial findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macaulay, Chloe; Spicer, John; Riches, Wendy; Lakhanpaul, Monica

    2017-01-01

    Learning Together is primarily an educational intervention, where paediatric registrars [SpRs] and General Practice (GP) registrars [GPSTs] see children together in a primary care setting. Over a six month period in 2013/2014, 44 learning pairs were set up mainly in North East and Central London. Proof of concept for the model at scale was achieved. Reported learning demonstrated: clinical learning themes of new knowledge, skill and communication skills; and collaborative themes of ongoing collaboration, satisfaction with team working and change in attitudes. These themes were identified in both sets of trainees. The self-reported learning is backed up by the results of a retrospective notes review of four common conditions based on NICE guidelines; constipation, asthma, feverish illness and eczema (CAFE). Guidance adherence improved from 57% before the intervention in solo GP training consultations to 72% during the joint clinic intervention (p Learning Together in its South London extension.

  13. Fission time-scale in experiments and in multiple initiation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karamian, S. A., E-mail: karamian@nrmail.jinr.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation)

    2011-12-15

    Rate of fission for highly-excited nuclei is affected by the viscose character of the systemmotion in deformation coordinates as was reported for very heavy nuclei with Z{sub C} > 90. The long time-scale of fission can be described in a model of 'fission by diffusion' that includes an assumption of the overdamped diabatic motion. The fission-to-spallation ratio at intermediate proton energy could be influenced by the viscosity, as well. Within a novel approach of the present work, the cross examination of the fission probability, time-scales, and pre-fission neutron multiplicities is resulted in the consistent interpretation of a whole set of the observables. Earlier, different aspects could be reproduced in partial simulations without careful coordination.

  14. Initial Assessment and Modeling Framework Development for Automated Mobility Districts: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Yi [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Stanley E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Garikapati, Venu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chen, Yuche [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhu, Lei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-02-07

    Automated vehicles (AVs) are increasingly being discussed as the basis for on-demand mobility services, introducing a new paradigm in which a fleet of AVs displaces private automobiles for day-to-day travel in dense activity districts. This paper examines a concept to displace privately owned automobiles within a region containing dense activity generators (jobs, retail, entertainment, etc.), referred to as an automated mobility district (AMD). This paper reviews several such districts, including airports, college campuses, business parks, downtown urban cores, and military bases, with examples of previous attempts to meet the mobility needs apart from private automobiles, some with automated technology and others with more traditional transit-based solutions. The issues and benefits of AMDs are framed within the perspective of intra-district, inter-district, and border issues, and the requirements for a modeling framework are identified to adequately reflect the breadth of mobility, energy, and emissions impact anticipated with AMDs

  15. Study on the Withdrawal Way of Silk Road Fund under the Belt and Road Initiative Based on Game Theory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qu Yingying

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Silk Road Fund is an important financial support of The Belt and Road Initiative, it has a strict investment operation process to realize the capital appreciation, so the withdrawal is crucial. This paper models the utility game and find the game mechanism between Silk Road Fund and target enterprise. And then we put forward some referential suggestions such as choosing suitable withdraw opportunity, perfecting talent team and information transmission mechanism,strengthening cooperation with local government, making effective use of gambling agreement and actively exploring new exit mode.

  16. APT Blanket Detailed Bin Model Based on Initial Plate-Type Design -3D FLOWTRAN-TF Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamm, L.L.

    1998-01-01

    This report provides background information for a series of reports documenting accident scenario simulations for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) blanket heat removal systems. The simulations were performed in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report for the APT. This report gives a brief description of the FLOWTRAN-TF code which was used for detailed blanket bin modeling

  17. Roles of different initial Maillard intermediates and pathways in meat flavor formation for cysteine-xylose-glycine model reaction systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Li; Xie, Jianchun; Zhao, Jian; Zhao, Mengyao; Fan, Mengdie; Xiao, Qunfei; Liang, Jingjing; Chen, Feng

    2017-10-01

    To explore initial Maillard reaction pathways and mechanisms for maximal formation of meaty flavors in heated cysteine-xylose-glycine systems, model reactions with synthesized initial Maillard intermediates, Gly-Amadori, TTCA (2-threityl-thiazolidine-4-carboxylic acids) and Cys-Amadori, were investigated. Relative relativities were characterized by spectrophotometrically monitoring the development of colorless degradation intermediates and browning reaction products. Aroma compounds formed were determined by solid-phase microextraction combined with GC-MS and GC-olfactometry. Gly-Amadori showed the fastest reaction followed by Cys-Amadori then TTCA. Free glycine accelerated reaction of TTCA, whereas cysteine inhibited that of Gly-Amadori due to association forming relatively stable thiazolidines. Cys-Amadori/Gly had the highest reactivity in development of both meaty flavors and brown products. TTCA/Gly favored yielding meaty flavors, whereas Gly-Amadori/Cys favored generation of brown products. Conclusively, initial formation of TTCA and pathway involving TTCA with glycine were more applicable to efficiently produce processed-meat flavorings in a cysteine-xylose-glycine system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The influence of female social models in corporate STEM initiatives on girls' math and science attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medeiros, Donald J.

    The United States' Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) workforce is growing slower than in the past, in comparison to demand, and in comparison to other countries. Competitive talent conditions require the United States to develop a strong pipeline of STEM talent within its own citizens. Given the number of female college graduates and their underrepresentation in the STEM workforce, women provide the greatest opportunity for fulfilling this need. The term social model represents the individuals and media that shape children's self-perceptions. Social models have been shown to positively influence girl's perceptions of the value of math and science as well as their expectations of success. This study examined differences in attitudes towards math and science among student participants in corporate STEM programs. Differences were measured based on participant gender and ethnicity, their mentor's gender and ethnicity, and program design differences. The research purpose was to inform the design of corporate STEM programs to improve female participants' attitudes towards math and science and eventually increase the number of women in the STEM workforce. Over three hundred students in differing corporate STEM programs completed math and science attitudinal scales at the start and end of their programs. Study results revealed, prior to program start, female participants had a better attitude towards math and science than male participants. Analysis of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study data showed similar results. Overall program results demonstrated higher post program math and science attitudes with no differences based on gender, age, or ethnicity of the participant or mentor. Participants with high program or mentor satisfaction were found to have higher attitudes towards math and science. These results may suggest improving female academic choice requires more focus on their expectations of success than perceived task

  19. Using Mobile Health to Support the Chronic Care Model: Developing an Institutional Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shantanu Nundy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Self-management support and team-based care are essential elements of the Chronic Care Model but are often limited by staff availability and reimbursement. Mobile phones are a promising platform for improving chronic care but there are few examples of successful health system implementation. Program Development. An iterative process of program design was built upon a pilot study and engaged multiple institutional stakeholders. Patients identified having a “human face” to the pilot program as essential. Stakeholders recognized the need to integrate the program with primary and specialty care but voiced concerns about competing demands on clinician time. Program Description. Nurse administrators at a university-affiliated health plan use automated text messaging to provide personalized self-management support for member patients with diabetes and facilitate care coordination with the primary care team. For example, when a patient texts a request to meet with a dietitian, a nurse-administrator coordinates with the primary care team to provide a referral. Conclusion. Our innovative program enables the existing health system to support a de novo care management program by leveraging mobile technology. The program supports self-management and team-based care in a way that we believe engages patients yet meets the limited availability of providers and needs of health plan administrators.

  20. Interference contributions to gluon initiated heavy Higgs production in the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, Nicolas

    2016-03-01

    We discuss the production of a heavy neutral Higgs boson of a CP-conserving Two-Higgs-Doublet Model in gluon fusion and its decay into a four-fermion final state, gg(→VV)→e + e - π + π - /e + e - ν l anti ν l . We investigate the interference contributions to invariant mass distributions of the four-fermion final state and other relevant kinematical observables. The relative importance of the different contributions is quantified for the process in the on-shell approximation, gg→ZZ. We show that interferences of the heavy Higgs with the light Higgs boson and background contributions are essential for a correct description of the differential cross section. Even though they contribute below O(10%) to those heavy Higgs signal cross sections, to which the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider were sensitive in its first run, we find that they are sizeable in certain regions of the parameter space that are relevant for future heavy Higgs boson searches. In fact, the interference contributions can significantly enhance the experimental sensitivity to the heavy Higgs boson.

  1. Local participation in biodiversity conservation initiatives: a comparative analysis of different models in South East Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-López, María Elena; García-Frapolli, Eduardo; Pritchard, Diana J; Sánchez González, María Consuelo; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Reyes-Garcia, Victoria

    2014-12-01

    In Mexico, biodiversity conservation is primarily implemented through three schemes: 1) protected areas, 2) payment-based schemes for environmental services, and 3) community-based conservation, officially recognized in some cases as Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas. In this paper we compare levels of local participation across conservation schemes. Through a survey applied to 670 households across six communities in Southeast Mexico, we document local participation during the creation, design, and implementation of the management plan of different conservation schemes. To analyze the data, we first calculated the frequency of participation at the three different stages mentioned, then created a participation index that characterizes the presence and relative intensity of local participation for each conservation scheme. Results showed that there is a low level of local participation across all the conservation schemes explored in this study. Nonetheless, the payment for environmental services had the highest local participation while the protected areas had the least. Our findings suggest that local participation in biodiversity conservation schemes is not a predictable outcome of a specific (community-based) model, thus implying that other factors might be important in determining local participation. This has implications on future strategies that seek to encourage local involvement in conservation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Initial Experience With the New Ahmed Glaucoma Valve Model M4: Short-term Results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvintal, Victor; Moster, Marlene R; Shyu, Andrew P; McDermott, Katie; Ekici, Feyzahan; Pro, Michael J; Waisbourd, Michael

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the clinical outcomes of the new Ahmed glaucoma valve (AGV) model M4. The device consists of a porous polyethylene shell designed for improved tissue integration and reduced encapsulation of the plate for better intraocular pressure (IOP) control. Medical records of patients with an AGV M4 implantation between December 1, 2012 and December 31, 2013 were reviewed. The main outcome measure was surgical failure, defined as either (1) IOP21 mm Hg and/or glaucoma, and/or (3) loss of light perception. Seventy-five eyes of 73 patients were included. Postoperative IOP at all follow-up visits significantly decreased from a baseline IOP of 31.2 mm Hg (P<0.01). However, IOP increased significantly at 3 months (20.4 mm Hg), 6 months (19.3 mm Hg), and 12 months (20.3 mm Hg) compared with 1 month (13.8 mm Hg) postoperatively (P<0.05). At 6 months and 1 year, the cumulative probability of failure was 32% and 72%, respectively. The AGV M4 effectively reduced IOP in the first postoperative month, but IOP steadily increased thereafter. Consequently, failure rates were high after 1 year of follow-up.

  3. Initial Experimental Verification of the Neutron Beam Modeling for the LBNL BNCT Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleuel, D.L.; Chu, W.T.; Donahue, R.J.; Ludewigt, B.A.; McDonald, R.J.; Smith, A.R.; Stone, N.A.; Vuji, J.

    1999-01-01

    In preparation for future clinical BNCT trials, neutron production via the 7Li(p,n) reaction as well as subsequent moderation to produce epithermal neutrons have been studied. Proper design of a moderator and filter assembly is crucial in producing an optimal epithermal neutron spectrum for brain tumor treatments. Based on in-phantom figures-of-merit,desirable assemblies have been identified. Experiments were performed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's 88-inch cyclotron to characterize epithermal neutron beams created using several microampere of 2.5 MeV protons on a lithium target. The neutron moderating assembly consisted of Al/AlF3 and Teflon, with a lead reflector to produce an epithermal spectrum strongly peaked at 10-20 keV. The thermal neutron fluence was measured as a function of depth in a cubic lucite head phantom by neutron activation in gold foils. Portions of the neutron spectrum were measured by in-air activation of six cadmium-covered materials (Au, Mn, In, Cu, Co, W) with high epithermal neutron absorption resonances. The results are reasonably reproduced in Monte Carlo computational models, confirming their validity

  4. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  5. Fast synthesis of 11C-Raclopride and its initial PET study on animal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jinming; Tian Jiahe; Yao Shulin; Ding Weimin; Yin Dayi; Liu Boli

    2008-01-01

    Objective: 11 C-Raclopride is a type-2 dopamine receptor (D 2 R) binding agent used in the study of Parkinson's disease. This study introduced a fast and convenient method for preparation of 11 C- Raclopride and reported on the preclinical trial of this receptor tracer on animal studies. Methods: 11 C- Raclopride was synthesized via reaction of 11 C-CH 3 -Triflate with Nor-Raclopride. The mixture of primary product was water-diluted and loaded on Sep-Pak C18 column for separation. The final product, 11 C-Raclopride, was purified by column chromatography and then eluted from the C18 column with ethanol. The bio-distribution was studied in SD rats and the in vivo imaging pattern was studied in hem ipark insonjan mon- keys. Results: Within 16 min from beginning of processing with 11 CO 2 , the synthetic yield of 11 C-Raclopride was 60%, radiochemical purity (RCP) > 95% and specific activity 8 GBq/mmol. The uptake ratios of striatum to cerebellum and cerebral cortex were 4.67 and 6.20, respectively, at 30 min after 11 C-Raclopride administration. The striatal uptake in normal rat brain could be blocked by N-methylspiperone (NMSP) and raclopride, but not by Nor-raclopride. PET imaging showed higher striatal D 2 R uptake on the D 2 receptor up-regulated side of the experimental monkeys relative to the contralateral side. Conclusions: Column chromatography for purification of 11 C-Raclopride was fast, convenient and with a RCP similar to that of high performance liquid chromatography purification. Preliminary PET findings using animal model suggested that 11 C-Raclopride by column chromatogram purification might be considered for clinical use. (authors)

  6. An Integrated Economics Model for ISRU in Support of a Mars Colony - Initial Status Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Fradet, Rene; Saydam, Serkan; Tapia-Cortez, Carlos; Dempster, Andrew G.; Coulton, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this effort is to develop an integrated set of risk-based financial and technical models to evaluate multiple Off-Earth Mining (OEM) scenarios. This quantitative, scenario- and simulation-based tool will help identify combinations of market variables, technical parameters, and policy levers that will enable the expansion of the global economy into the solar system and return economic benefits. Human ventures in space are entering a new phase in which missions formerly driven by government agencies are now being replaced by those led by commercial enterprises - in launch, satellite deployment, resupply of the International Space Station, and space tourism. In the not-too-distant future, commercial opportunities will also include the mining of asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. This investigation will examine the role of OEM in a growing space economy. (In this investigation, the term 'mining' is taken to embrace minerals, ice/water, and other in situ resources.) OEM can be the engine that drives the space economy, so it would be useful to understand what OEM market conditions and technology requirements are needed for that economy to prosper. These specific elements will be studied in the wider context of creating an economy that could ultimately support a sustainable Mars Colony. Such a colony will need in situ resources not only for its own survival, but to prosper and grow, it must create viable business ventures, essentially by fulfilling the demand for in situ resources from and on Mars. This investigation will focus on understanding the role and economic prospect for OEM associated with the Human Colonization of Mars (HCM).

  7. Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak; Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong

    2005-01-01

    The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained

  8. Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak [Chungbuk National Univ., Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong [Korea Electtric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained.

  9. Numerical solution of a logistic growth model for a population with Allee effect considering fuzzy initial values and fuzzy parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Z.; Nurkholipah, N. S.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    Predicting the future of population number is among the important factors that affect the consideration in preparing a good management for the population. This has been done by various known method, one among them is by developing a mathematical model describing the growth of the population. The model usually takes form in a differential equation or a system of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. The most widely used growth models currently are those having a sigmoid solution of time series, including the Verhulst logistic equation and the Gompertz equation. In this paper we consider the Allee effect of the Verhulst’s logistic population model. The Allee effect is a phenomenon in biology showing a high correlation between population size or density and the mean individual fitness of the population. The method used to derive the solution is the Runge-Kutta numerical scheme, since it is in general regarded as one among the good numerical scheme which is relatively easy to implement. Further exploration is done via the fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate the impreciseness of the initial values and parameters in the model.

  10. On the sensitivity of teleseismic full-waveform inversion to earth parametrization, initial model and acquisition design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beller, S.; Monteiller, V.; Combe, L.; Operto, S.; Nolet, G.

    2018-02-01

    Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is not yet a mature imaging technology for lithospheric imaging from teleseismic data. Therefore, its promise and pitfalls need to be assessed more accurately according to the specifications of teleseismic experiments. Three important issues are related to (1) the choice of the lithospheric parametrization for optimization and visualization, (2) the initial model and (3) the acquisition design, in particular in terms of receiver spread and sampling. These three issues are investigated with a realistic synthetic example inspired by the CIFALPS experiment in the Western Alps. Isotropic elastic FWI is implemented with an adjoint-state formalism and aims to update three parameter classes by minimization of a classical least-squares difference-based misfit function. Three different subsurface parametrizations, combining density (ρ) with P and S wave speeds (Vp and Vs) , P and S impedances (Ip and Is), or elastic moduli (λ and μ) are first discussed based on their radiation patterns before their assessment by FWI. We conclude that the (ρ, λ, μ) parametrization provides the FWI models that best correlate with the true ones after recombining a posteriori the (ρ, λ, μ) optimization parameters into Ip and Is. Owing to the low frequency content of teleseismic data, 1-D reference global models as PREM provide sufficiently accurate initial models for FWI after smoothing that is necessary to remove the imprint of the layering. Two kinds of station deployments are assessed: coarse areal geometry versus dense linear one. We unambiguously conclude that a coarse areal geometry should be favoured as it dramatically increases the penetration in depth of the imaging as well as the horizontal resolution. This results because the areal geometry significantly increases local wavenumber coverage, through a broader sampling of the scattering and dip angles, compared to a linear deployment.

  11. Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration in Russian and Swedish Model Forest Initiatives: Adaptive Governance Toward Sustainable Forest Management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Elbakidze

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Building the adaptive capacity of interlinked social and ecological systems is assumed to improve implementation of sustainable forest management (SFM policies. One mechanism is collaborative learning by continuous evaluation, communication, and transdisciplinary knowledge production. The Model Forest (MF concept, developed in Canada, is intended to encourage all dimensions of sustainable development through collaboration among stakeholders of forest resources in a geographical area. Because the MF approach encompasses both social and ecological systems, it can be seen as a process aimed at improving adaptive capacity to deal with uncertainty and change. We analyzed multi-stakeholder approaches used in four MF initiatives representing social-ecological systems with different governance legacies and economic histories in the northwest of the Russian Federation (Komi MF and Pskov MF and in Sweden (Vilhelmina MF and the Foundation Säfsen Forests in the Bergslagen region. To describe the motivations behind development of the initiative and the governance systems, we used qualitative open-ended interviews and analyzed reports and official documents. The initial driving forces for establishing new local governance arrangements were different in all four cases. All MFs were characterized by multi-level and multi-sector collaboration. However, the distribution of power among stakeholders ranged from clearly top down in the Russian Federation to largely bottom up in Sweden. All MF initiatives shared three main challenges: (a to develop governance arrangements that include representative actors and stakeholders, (b to combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to governance, and (c to coordinate different sectors' modes of landscape governance. We conclude that, in principle, the MF concept is a promising approach to multi-stakeholder collaboration. However, to understand the local and regional dimensions of sustainability, and the level of adaptability

  12. [Emotional stress as a clinical model to study the pathogenesis of the initial phase of the general adaptation syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anikhovskaya, I A; Dvoenosov, V G; Zhdanov, R I; Koubatiev, A A; Mayskiy, I A; Markelova, M M; Meshkov, M V; Oparina, O N; Salakhov, I M; Yakovlev, M Yu

    2015-01-01

    General adaptation syndrome (GAS), the basis of the development of which is stress phenomenon, is an essential component of the pathogenesis of many diseases and syndromes. However, the patho genesis of GAS hitherto is considered exclusively from the endocrinological viewpoint. This relates primarily to the initial phase of the GAS, a clinical model for the study of which may be psycho-emotional stress (PES), which we studied using three groups of volunteers. The first one consists of 25 students who were waiting for unaccustomed physical activity (17 men) and play debut on the stage (8 women). The second group consists of 48 children (2-14 years) who expected for "planned" surgery. The third group of volunteers is made up of 80 students (41 women and 39 men) during the first exam. The concentration of cortisol, endotoxin (ET), the activity of antiendotoxin immunity (AEI) and the haemostatic system parameters were determined in the blood serum of volunteers in various combinations. We found laboratory evidence for PES at 92% of students of the first group, 58% of children of the second one and in 21% of students of the third group of volunteers (mostly women). The concentration of ET increased at 13 (52%) volunteers of the first group with a significant increase of average indicators in the whole group (from 0.84 ± 0.06 to 1.19 ± 0.04 EU/ml). At children of the second group, the average concentration of ET increased even more significantly (from 0.42 ± 0.02 to 1.63 ± 0.11 EU/ml), which was accompanied by the activation of the hemostasis system. A degree of the activation was directly dependent on the level of ET in the general circulation and on an activity of AEI. Examination stress in the third group of volunteers is accompanied by activation of plasma hemostasis (increased initial thrombosis rate and reduced the time it starts, lag-period) in 26% of female students and 15% of male students. We suggest that it is possible to use the PES as a clinical model

  13. Analytical model for advective-dispersive transport involving flexible boundary inputs, initial distributions and zero-order productions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jui-Sheng; Li, Loretta Y.; Lai, Keng-Hsin; Liang, Ching-Ping

    2017-11-01

    A novel solution method is presented which leads to an analytical model for the advective-dispersive transport in a semi-infinite domain involving a wide spectrum of boundary inputs, initial distributions, and zero-order productions. The novel solution method applies the Laplace transform in combination with the generalized integral transform technique (GITT) to obtain the generalized analytical solution. Based on this generalized analytical expression, we derive a comprehensive set of special-case solutions for some time-dependent boundary distributions and zero-order productions, described by the Dirac delta, constant, Heaviside, exponentially-decaying, or periodically sinusoidal functions as well as some position-dependent initial conditions and zero-order productions specified by the Dirac delta, constant, Heaviside, or exponentially-decaying functions. The developed solutions are tested against an analytical solution from the literature. The excellent agreement between the analytical solutions confirms that the new model can serve as an effective tool for investigating transport behaviors under different scenarios. Several examples of applications, are given to explore transport behaviors which are rarely noted in the literature. The results show that the concentration waves resulting from the periodically sinusoidal input are sensitive to dispersion coefficient. The implication of this new finding is that a tracer test with a periodic input may provide additional information when for identifying the dispersion coefficients. Moreover, the solution strategy presented in this study can be extended to derive analytical models for handling more complicated problems of solute transport in multi-dimensional media subjected to sequential decay chain reactions, for which analytical solutions are not currently available.

  14. H I versus H α - comparing the kinematic tracers in modelling the initial conditions of the Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi, S. Alireza; Lotz, Jennifer M.; Barnes, Joshua E.; Privon, George C.; Snyder, Gregory F.

    2018-03-01

    We explore the effect of using different kinematic tracers (H I and H α) on reconstructing the encounter parameters of the Mice major galaxy merger (NGC 4676A/B). We observed the Mice using the SparsePak Integral Field Unit (IFU) on the WIYN telescope, and compared the H α velocity map with VLA H I observations. The relatively high spectral resolution of our data (R ≈ 5000) allows us to resolve more than one kinematic component in the emission lines of some fibres. We separate the H α-[N II] emission of the star-forming regions from shocks using their [N II]/H α line ratio and velocity dispersion. We show that the velocity of star-forming regions agree with that of the cold gas (H I), particularly, in the tidal tails of the system. We reconstruct the morphology and kinematics of these tidal tails utilizing an automated modelling method based on the IDENTIKIT software package. We quantify the goodness of fit and the uncertainties of the derived encounter parameters. Most of the initial conditions reconstructed using H α and H I are consistent with each other, and qualitatively agree with the results of previous works. For example, we find 210± ^{50}_{40} Myr, and 180± ^{50}_{40} Myr for the time since pericentre, when modelling H α and H I kinematics, respectively. This confirms that in some cases, H α kinematics can be used instead of H I kinematics for reconstructing the initial conditions of galaxy mergers, and our automated modelling method is applicable to some merging systems.

  15. Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Charlie; Robertson, Franklin; Molod, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of

  16. A degree-day model initiated by pheromone trap captures for managing pecan nut casebearer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in pecans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Allen E; Muegge, Mark A

    2010-06-01

    Field observations from pecan, Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) Koch, orchards in Texas were used to develop and validate a degree-day model of cumulative proportional adult flight and oviposition and date of first observed nut entry by larvae of the first summer generation of the pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Nuenzig (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). The model was initiated on the date of first sustained capture of adults in pheromone traps. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures were used to determine the sum of degree-days from onset to 99% moth flight and oviposition and the date on which first summer generation larvae were first observed penetrating pecan nuts. Cumulative proportional oviposition (y) was described by a modified Gompertz equation, y = 106.05 x exp(-(exp(3.11 - 0.00669 x (x - 1), with x = cumulative degree-days at a base temperature of 3.33 degrees C. Cumulative proportional moth flight (y) was modeled as y = 102.62 x exp(- (exp(1.49 - 0.00571 x (x - 1). Model prediction error for dates of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90% cumulative oviposition was 1.3 d and 83% of the predicted dates were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. Prediction error for date of first observed nut entry was 2.2 d and 77% of model predictions were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. The model provides ample lead time for producers to implement orchard scouting to assess pecan nut casebearer infestations and to apply an insecticide if needed to prevent economic loss.

  17. Variations of the stellar initial mass function in semi-analytical models - II. The impact of cosmic ray regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontanot, Fabio; De Lucia, Gabriella; Xie, Lizhi; Hirschmann, Michaela; Bruzual, Gustavo; Charlot, Stéphane

    2018-04-01

    Recent studies proposed that cosmic rays (CRs) are a key ingredient in setting the conditions for star formation, thanks to their ability to alter the thermal and chemical state of dense gas in the ultraviolet-shielded cores of molecular clouds. In this paper, we explore their role as regulators of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) variations, using the semi-analytic model for GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly (GAEA). The new model confirms our previous results obtained using the integrated galaxy-wide IMF (IGIMF) theory. Both variable IMF models reproduce the observed increase of α-enhancement as a function of stellar mass and the measured z = 0 excess of dynamical mass-to-light ratios with respect to photometric estimates assuming a universal IMF. We focus here on the mismatch between the photometrically derived (M^app_{\\star }) and intrinsic (M⋆) stellar masses, by analysing in detail the evolution of model galaxies with different values of M_{\\star }/M^app_{\\star }. We find that galaxies with small deviations (i.e. formally consistent with a universal IMF hypothesis) are characterized by more extended star formation histories and live in less massive haloes with respect to the bulk of the galaxy population. In particular, the IGIMF theory does not change significantly the mean evolution of model galaxies with respect to the reference model, a CR-regulated IMF instead implies shorter star formation histories and higher peaks of star formation for objects more massive than 1010.5 M⊙. However, we also show that it is difficult to unveil this behaviour from observations, as the key physical quantities are typically derived assuming a universal IMF.

  18. Effects of Initial Values and Convergence Criterion in the Two-Parameter Logistic Model When Estimating the Latent Distribution in BILOG-MG 3.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo W Nader

    Full Text Available Parameters of the two-parameter logistic model are generally estimated via the expectation-maximization algorithm, which improves initial values for all parameters iteratively until convergence is reached. Effects of initial values are rarely discussed in item response theory (IRT, but initial values were recently found to affect item parameters when estimating the latent distribution with full non-parametric maximum likelihood. However, this method is rarely used in practice. Hence, the present study investigated effects of initial values on item parameter bias and on recovery of item characteristic curves in BILOG-MG 3, a widely used IRT software package. Results showed notable effects of initial values on item parameters. For tighter convergence criteria, effects of initial values decreased, but item parameter bias increased, and the recovery of the latent distribution worsened. For practical application, it is advised to use the BILOG default convergence criterion with appropriate initial values when estimating the latent distribution from data.

  19. The social paediatrics initiative: a RICHER model of primary health care for at risk children and their families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Sabrina T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Responsive Interdisciplinary Child-Community Health Education and Research (RICHER initiative is an intersectoral and interdisciplinary community outreach primary health care (PHC model. It is being undertaken in partnership with community based organizations in order to address identified gaps in the continuum of health services delivery for ‘at risk’ children and their families. As part of a larger study, this paper reports on whether the RICHER initiative is associated with increased: 1 access to health care for children and families with multiple forms of disadvantage and 2 patient-reported empowerment. This study provides the first examination of a model of delivering PHC, using a Social Paediatrics approach. Methods This was a mixed-methods study, using quantitative and qualitative approaches; it was undertaken in partnership with the community, both organizations and individual providers. Descriptive statistics, including logistic regression of patient survey data (n=86 and thematic analyses of patient interview data (n=7 were analyzed to examine the association between patient experiences with the RICHER initiative and parent-reported empowerment. Results Respondents found communication with the provider clear, that the provider explained any test results in a way they could understand, and that the provider was compassionate and respectful. Analysis of the survey and in-depth interview data provide evidence that interpersonal communication, particularly the provider’s interpersonal style (e.g., being treated as an equal, was very important. Even after controlling for parents’ education and ethnicity, the provider’s interpersonal style remained positively associated with parent-reported empowerment (p Conclusions This model of PHC delivery is unique in its purposeful and required partnerships between health care providers and community members. This study provides beginning evidence that RICHER can

  20. Evaluation of behaviors of earth and rockfill dams during construction and initial impounding using instrumentation data and numerical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rashidi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the behavior of Gavoshan dam was evaluated during construction and the first impounding. A two-dimensional (2D numerical analysis was conducted based on a finite difference method on the largest cross-section of the dam using the results of instrument measurements and back analysis. These evaluations will be completed in the case that back analysis is carried out in order to control the degree of the accuracy and the level of confidence of the measured behavior since each of the measurements could be controlled by comparing it to the result obtained from the numerical model. Following that, by comparing the results of the numerical analysis with the measured values, it is indicated that there is a proper consistency between these two values. Moreover, it was observed that the dam performance was suitable regarding the induced pore water pressure, the pore water pressure ratio ru, settlement, induced stresses, arching degree, and hydraulic fracturing probability during the construction and initial impounding periods. The results demonstrated that the maximum settlement of the core was 238 cm at the end of construction. In the following 6 years after construction (initial impounding and exploitation period, the accumulative settlement of the dam was 270 cm. It is clear that 88% of the total settlement of the dam took place during dam construction. The reason is that the clay core was smashed in the wet side, i.e. the optimum moisture content. Whereas the average curving ratio was 0.64 during dam construction; at the end of the initial impounding, the maximum amount of curving ratio in the upstream was 0.81, and the minimum (critical amount in the downstream was 0.52. It was also concluded that this dam is safe in comparison with the behaviors of other similar dams in the world.

  1. Modeling the downward transport of {sup 210}Pb in Peatlands: Initial Penetration‐Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olid, Carolina, E-mail: olid.carolina@gmail.com [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-90187, Umeå (Sweden); Diego, David [Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, NO-5020 Bergen (Norway); Garcia-Orellana, Jordi [Departament de Física, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Cortizas, Antonio Martínez [Departamento de Edafoloxía e Química Agrícola, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, E-15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Klaminder, Jonatan [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-90187, Umeå (Sweden)

    2016-01-15

    The vertical distribution of {sup 210}Pb is commonly used to date peat deposits accumulated over the last 100–150 years. However, several studies have questioned this method because of an apparent post-depositional mobility of {sup 210}Pb within some peat profiles. In this study, we introduce the Initial Penetration–Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model for calculating ages derived from {sup 210}Pb profiles that are altered by an initial migration of the radionuclide. This new, two-phased, model describes the distribution of atmospheric-derived {sup 210}Pb ({sup 210}Pb{sub xs}) in peat taking into account both incorporation of {sup 210}Pb into the accumulating peat matrix as well as an initial flushing of {sup 210}Pb through the uppermost peat layers. The validity of the IP-CRS model is tested in four anomalous {sup 210}Pb peat records that showed some deviations from the typical exponential decay profile not explained by variations in peat accumulation rates. Unlike the most commonly used {sup 210}Pb-dating model (Constant Rate of Supply (CRS)), the IP-CRS model estimates peat accumulation rates consistent with typical growth rates for peatlands from the same areas. Confidence in the IP-CRS chronology is also provided by the good agreement with independent chronological markers (i.e. {sup 241}Am and {sup 137}Cs). Our results showed that the IP-CRS can provide chronologies from peat records where {sup 210}Pb mobility is evident, being a valuable tool for studies reconstructing past environmental changes using peat archives during the Anthropocene. - Highlights: • Accurate age dating of peat and sediment cores is critical for evaluating change. • A new {sup 210}Pb dating model that includes vertical transport of {sup 210}Pb was developed. • The IP-CRS model provided consistent peat accumulation rates. • The IP-CRS ages were consistent with independent chronological markers. • The IP-CRS model derives peat ages where downward {sup 210}Pb transport is

  2. Mathematical Constraints on the Use of Transmission Line Models for Simulating Initial Breakdown Pulses in Lightning Discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, C. L.; Merrill, R. A.; Pasko, V. P.

    2015-12-01

    A significant portion of the in-cloud lightning development is observed as a series of initial breakdown pulses (IBPs) that are characterized by an abrupt change in the electric field at a remote sensor. Recent experimental and theoretical studies have attributed this process to the stepwise elongation of an initial lightning leader inside the thunderstorm [da Silva and Pasko, JGR, 120, 4989-5009, 2015, and references therein]. Attempts to visually observe these events are hampered due to the fact that clouds are opaque to optical radiation. Due to this reason, throughout the last decade, a number of researchers have used the so-called transmission line models (also commonly referred to as engineering models), widely employed for return stroke simulations, to simulate the waveshapes of IBPs, and also of narrow bipolar events. The transmission line (TL) model approach is to prescribe the source current dynamics in a certain manner to match the measured E-field change waveform, with the purpose of retrieving key information about the source, such as its height, peak current, size, speed of charge motion, etc. Although the TL matching method is not necessarily physics-driven, the estimated source characteristics can give insights on the dominant length- and time-scales, as well as, on the energetics of the source. This contributes to better understanding of the environment where the onset and early stages of lightning development takes place.In the present work, we use numerical modeling to constrain the number of source parameters that can be confidently inferred from the observed far-field IBP waveforms. We compare different modified TL models (i.e., with different attenuation behaviors) to show that they tend to produce similar waveforms in conditions where the channel is short. We also demonstrate that it is impossible to simultaneously retrieve the speed of source current propagation and channel length from an observed IBP waveform, in contrast to what has been

  3. Fatigue crack initiation in nickel-based superalloys studied by microstructure-based FE modeling and scanning electron microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fried M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work stage I crack initiation in polycrystalline nickel-based superalloys is investigated by analyzing anisotropic mechanical properties, local stress concentrations and plastic deformation on the microstructural length scale. The grain structure in the gauge section of fatigue specimens was characterized by EBSD. Based on the measured data, a microstructure-based FE model could be established to simulate the strain and stress distribution in the specimens during the first loading cycle of a fatigue test. The results were in fairly good agreement with experimentally measured local strains. Furthermore, the onset of plastic deformation was predicted by identifying shear stress maxima in the microstructure, presumably leading to activation of slip systems. Measurement of plastic deformation and observation of slip traces in the respective regions of the microstructure confirmed the predicted slip activity. The close relation between micro-plasticity, formation of slip traces and stage I crack initiation was demonstrated by SEM surface analyses of fatigued specimens and an in-situ fatigue test in a large chamber SEM.

  4. Observations and model calculations of B747 engine exhaust products at cruise altitude and inferred initial OH emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tremmel, H.G.; Schlager, H.; Konopka, P.; Schulte, P. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Arnold, F.; Klemm, M.; Droste-Franke, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany)

    1997-06-01

    NO{sub y} (NO, HNO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}) exhaust emissions in the near-field plume of two B747 jet airliners cruising in the upper troposphere were measured in situ using the DLR Falcon research aircraft. In addition CO{sub 2} was measured providing exhaust plume dilution rates for the species. The observations were used to estimate the initial OH concentration and NO{sub 2}/NO{sub x} ratio at the engine exit and the combustor exit by back calculations using a chemistry box model. From the two different plume events, and using two different model simulation modes in each case, we inferred OH emission indices EI(OH) = 0.32-0.39 g/kg fuel (OH{sub 0} = 9-14.4 ppmv) and (NO{sub 2}/NO{sub x}){sub 0} = 0.12-0.17. Furthermore, our results indicate that the chemistry of the exhaust species during the short period between the combustion chamber exit and the engine exit must be considered, because OH is already consumed to a great extent in this engine section, due to conversion to HNO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}. For the engines discussed here, the modeled OH concentration between combustor exit und engine exit decreases by a factor of about 350, leading to OH concentrations of 1-2.10{sup 12} molec/cm{sup 3} at the engine exit. (orig.) 45 refs.

  5. Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative model of drug development for neglected diseases: current status and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioset, Jean-Robert; Chang, Shing

    2011-09-01

    The Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative (DNDi) is a patients' needs-driven organization committed to the development of new treatments for neglected diseases. Created in 2003, DNDi has delivered four improved treatments for malaria, sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis. A main DNDi challenge is to build a solid R&D portfolio for neglected diseases and to deliver preclinical candidates in a timely manner using an original model based on partnership. To address this challenge DNDi has remodeled its discovery activities from a project-based academic-bound network to a fully integrated process-oriented platform in close collaboration with pharmaceutical companies. This discovery platform relies on dedicated screening capacity and lead-optimization consortia supported by a pragmatic, structured and pharmaceutical-focused compound sourcing strategy.

  6. Model and experiences of initiating collaboration with traditional healers in validation of ethnomedicines for HIV/AIDS in Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinsembu Kazhila C

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Many people with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS in Namibia have access to antiretroviral drugs but some still use traditional medicines to treat opportunistic infections and offset side-effects from antiretroviral medication. Namibia has a rich biodiversity of indigenous plants that could contain novel anti-HIV agents. However, such medicinal plants have not been identified and properly documented. Various ethnomedicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections have not been scientifically validated for safety and efficacy. These limitations are mostly attributable to the lack of collaboration between biomedical scientists and traditional healers. This paper presents a five-step contextual model for initiating collaboration with Namibian traditional healers in order that candidate plants that may contain novel anti-HIV agents are identified, and traditional medicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections are subjected to scientific validation. The model includes key structures and processes used to initiate collaboration with traditional healers in Namibia; namely, the National Biosciences Forum, a steering committee with the University of Namibia (UNAM as the focal point, a study tour to Zambia and South Africa where other collaborative frameworks were examined, commemorations of the African Traditional Medicine Day (ATMD, and consultations with stakeholders in north-eastern Namibia. Experiences from these structures and processes are discussed. All traditional healers in north-eastern Namibia were willing to collaborate with UNAM in order that their traditional medicines could be subjected to scientific validation. The current study provides a framework for future collaboration with traditional healers and the selection of candidate anti-HIV medicinal plants and ethnomedicines for scientific testing in Namibia.

  7. Model of spur processes in aqueous radiation chemistry including spur overlap and a novel initial hydrated electron distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Results are presented from computer calculations based upon an improved diffusion-kinetic model of the spur which includes a novel initial distribution for the hydrated electron and an approximate mathematical treatment of the overlap of spurs in three dimensions. Experimental data for the decay of the hydrated electron and hydroxyl radical before one in electron-pulse-irradated, solute-free and air-free water are fit wihtin experimental uncertainty by adjustment of the initial spatial distributions of spur intermediates and the average energy deposited in the spur. Using the same values of these parameters, the hydrated electron decay is computed for times from 1 ps 10 μs after the radiatio pulse. The results of such calcuations for various conditions of pulse dose and concentrations of scavengers of individual primary chemical species in the spur are compared with corresponding experimental data obtained predominantly from water and aqueous solutions irradiated with 10 to 15 MeV electron pulses. Very good agreement between calculated and experimental hydrated electron decay in pure water is observed for the entire time range studied when a pulse dose of approximately 7900 rads is modeled, but the calcuated and experimental curves are observed to deviate for times greater than 10 ns nanoseconds when low pulse doses and low scavenger concentrations are considered. It is shown that this deviation is experimental and calculated hydrated electron decay cannot be explained by assuming the presence of a hydrated electron scavenging impurity nor by employing a distribution of nearest neighbor interspur distances to refine the overlap approximation

  8. Role of the Convective Scheme in Modeling Initiation and Intensification of Tropical Depressions over the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvel, Jean Philippe; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam

    2016-04-01

    Modifications of the large-scale environment related to intraseasonal (MJO) and interannual (ENSO) time-scale variability or to global climate warming may have important impacts on the tropical cyclonic activity. This sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TC) on environmental changes can now be studied using General Circulation Models (GCM). Before doing sensitivity studies with a GCM, it is interesting to assess the representation of the TC activity for different configurations (resolution, parameterization) of the GCM in present climate conditions and to trace possible causes of bias in TC number, location or strength. A possible approach to do this assessment is to separate initiation and intensification processes. By using either GCM output, or meteorological analysis combined to TC observation databases, it is possible to study the condition of formation of tropical depressions vortices (TDV) at an early stage and their possible intensification into a TC (say the Tropical Storm stage). We use the LMDZ GCM to study the sensitivity of TDV characteristics to different entrainment and closure formulations of the convective scheme. The study focuses on the Tropical North Atlantic using the "zoom" capability of the LMDZ GCM. The horizontal resolution of the model is set to 0.75° over a large region of the North Atlantic and West Africa. The GCM is free to run in this region and is tied to ERA-Interim reanalysis outside that region, with intermediate relaxation times in-between. We use the Tiedtke convective scheme with entrainment and closure based on the moisture convergence, or with an entrainment based on the relative humidity of the environment, and additionally a closure based on CAPE. Each configuration is run for 10 years between 2000 and 2009 with prescribed SST. In summary, the convective entrainment based on the relative humidity in the environment deepens the TDV in LMDZ, resulting in more TDV and TC. The convective closure mitigates this tendency and

  9. Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2011-01-01

    As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was

  10. A model on CME/Flare initiation: Loss of Equilibrium caused by mass loss of quiescent prominences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miley, George; Chon Nam, Sok; Kim, Mun Song; Kim, Jik Su

    2015-08-01

    Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) model should give an answer to enough energy storage for giant bulk plasma into interplanetary space to escape against the sun’s gravitation and its explosive eruption. Advocates of ‘Mass Loading’ model (e.g. Low, B. 1996, SP, 167, 217) suggested a simple mechanism of CME initiation, the loss of mass from a prominence anchoring magnetic flux rope, but they did not associate the mass loss with the loss of equilibrium. The catastrophic loss of equilibrium model is considered as to be a prospective CME/Flare model to explain sudden eruption of magnetic flux systems. Isenberg, P. A., et al (1993, ApJ, 417, 368)developed ideal magnetohydrodynamic theory of the magnetic flux rope to show occurrence of catastrophic loss of equilibrium according to increasing magnetic flux transported into corona.We begin with extending their study including gravity on prominence’s material to obtain equilibrium curves in case of given mass parameters, which are the strengths of the gravitational force compared with the characteristic magnetic force. Furthermore, we study quasi-static evolution of the system including massive prominence flux rope and current sheet below it to obtain equilibrium curves of prominence’s height according to decreasing mass parameter in a properly fixed magnetic environment. The curves show equilibrium loss behaviors to imply that mass loss result in equilibrium loss. Released fractions of magnetic energy are greater than corresponding zero-mass case. This eruption mechanism is expected to be able to apply to the eruptions of quiescent prominences, which is located in relatively weak magnetic environment with 105 km of scale length and 10G of photospheric magnetic field.

  11. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate cropland carbon flux: Model development and initial evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, R. César; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Williams, Jimmy R.; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO 2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)-residue and simulate land–atmosphere carbon exchange. We test this new SWAT-C model with daily eddy covariance (EC) observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) and annual crop yield at six sites across the U.S. Midwest. Results show that SWAT-C simulates well multi-year average NEE and ET across the spatially distributed sites and capture the majority of temporal variation of these two variables at a daily time scale at each site. Our analyses also reveal that performance of SWAT-C is influenced by multiple factors, such as crop management practices (irrigated vs. rainfed), completeness and accuracy of input data, crop species, and initialization of state variables. Overall, the new SWAT-C demonstrates favorable performance for simulating land–atmosphere carbon exchange across agricultural sites with different soils, climate, and management practices. SWAT-C is expected to serve as a useful tool for including carbon flux into consideration in sustainable watershed management under a changing climate. We also note that extensive assessment of SWAT-C with field observations is required for further improving the model and understanding potential uncertainties of applying it across large regions with complex landscapes. - Highlights: • Expanding the SWAT

  12. Upgrades to the Mars Initial Reference Ionosphere (MIRI) Model Due to Observations from MAVEN, MEX and MRO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narvaez, C.; Mendillo, M.; Trovato, J.

    2017-12-01

    A semi-empirical model of the maximum electron density (Nmax) of the martian ionosphere [MIRI-mark-1](1) was derived from an initial set radar observations by the MEX/MARSIS instrument. To extend the model to full electron density profiles, normalized shapes of Ne(h) from a theoretical model(2) were calibrated by MIRI's Nmax. Subsequent topside ionosphere observations from MAVEN indicated that topside shapes from MEX/MARSIS(3) offered improved morphology. The MEX topside shapes were then merged to the bottomside shapes from the theoretical model. Using a larger set of MEX/MARSIS observations (07/31/2005 - 05/24/2015), a new specification of Nmax as a function of solar zenith angle and solar flux is now used to calibrate the normalized Ne(h) profiles. The MIRI-mark-2 model includes the integral with height of Ne(h) to form total electron content (TEC) values. Validation of the MIRI TEC was accomplished using an independent set of TEC derived from the SHARAD(4) experiment on MRO. (1) M. Mendillo, A. Marusiak, P. Withers, D. Morgan and D. Gurnett, A New Semi-empirical Model of the Peak Electron Density of the Martian Ionosphere, Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 1-5, doi:10.1002/2013GL057631, 2013. (2) Mayyasi, M. and M. Mendillo (2015), Why the Viking descent probes found only one ionospheric layer at Mars, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 7359-7365, doi:10.1002/2015GL065575 (3) Němec, F., D. Morgan, D. Gurnett, and D. Andrews (2016), Empirical model of the Martian dayside ionosphere: Effects of crustal magnetic fields and solar ionizing flux at higher altitudes, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, 1760-1771, doi:10.1002/2015/A022060.(4) Campbell, B., and T. Watters (2016), Phase compensation of MARSIS subsurface sounding and estimation of ionospheric properties: New insights from SHARAD results, J.Geophys. Res. Planets, 121, 180-193, doi:10.1002/2015JE004917.

  13. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate cropland carbon flux: Model development and initial evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, R. César [Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740 (United States); Arnold, Jeffrey G. [Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory USDA-ARS, Temple, TX 76502 (United States); Williams, Jimmy R. [Blackland Research and Extension Center, AgriLIFE Research, 720 E. Blackland Road, Temple, TX 76502 (United States); Srinivasan, Raghavan [Spatial Sciences Laboratory in the Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A and M University, College Stations, TX 77845 (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO{sub 2} emission, one important source of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)-residue and simulate land–atmosphere carbon exchange. We test this new SWAT-C model with daily eddy covariance (EC) observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) and annual crop yield at six sites across the U.S. Midwest. Results show that SWAT-C simulates well multi-year average NEE and ET across the spatially distributed sites and capture the majority of temporal variation of these two variables at a daily time scale at each site. Our analyses also reveal that performance of SWAT-C is influenced by multiple factors, such as crop management practices (irrigated vs. rainfed), completeness and accuracy of input data, crop species, and initialization of state variables. Overall, the new SWAT-C demonstrates favorable performance for simulating land–atmosphere carbon exchange across agricultural sites with different soils, climate, and management practices. SWAT-C is expected to serve as a useful tool for including carbon flux into consideration in sustainable watershed management under a changing climate. We also note that extensive assessment of SWAT-C with field observations is required for further improving the model and understanding potential uncertainties of applying it across large regions with complex landscapes. - Highlights: • Expanding the

  14. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2017-09-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

  15. Medical education resources initiative for teens program in baltimore: A model pipeline program built on four pillars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mains, Tyler E; Wilcox, Mark V; Wright, Scott M

    2016-01-01

    Less than 6% of U.S. medical school applicants are African-American. The lack of diversity among physicians, by race as well as other measures, confers a negative impact on the American healthcare system because underrepresented minority (URM) physicians are more likely to practice in underserved communities and deliver more equitable, culturally competent care. MERIT (Medical Education Resources Initiative for Teens) is a nonprofit organization based in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. MERIT prepares URM high school students for health careers by providing a holistic support system for seven consecutive years. The program model, which utilizes weekly Saturday sessions, summer internships, and longitudinal mentoring, is built on four foundational pillars: (1) Ignite the Fire, (2) Illuminate the Path, (3) Create the Toolkit, and (4) Sustain the Desire. Since 2011, MERIT has supported 51 students in the Baltimore City Public School System. For the past two years, 100% (n = 14) of MERIT seniors enrolled in universities, compared to only 20.2% of Baltimore City students overall. While it is too early to know whether MERIT alumni will realize their goals of becoming healthcare professionals, they are currently excelling in universities and over 75% (n = 17) are still planning to pursue graduate degrees in health-related fields. After piloting an effective program model, MERIT now has three key priorities moving forward: (1) Creating a sustainable and thriving organization, (2) increasing the number of scholars the program supports in Baltimore, and (3) expanding MERIT to other cities.

  16. Virginia flow-ecology modeling results—An initial assessment of flow reduction effects on aquatic biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Jennifer L.; Reilly, Pamela A.

    2017-11-14

    BackgroundThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), reviewed a previously compiled set of linear regression models to assess their utility in defining the response of the aquatic biological community to streamflow depletion.As part of the 2012 Virginia Healthy Watersheds Initiative (HWI) study conducted by Tetra Tech, Inc., for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Virginia DEQ, a database with computed values of 72 hydrologic metrics, or indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA), 37 fish metrics, and 64 benthic invertebrate metrics was compiled and quality assured. Hydrologic alteration was represented by simulation of streamflow record for a pre-water-withdrawal condition (baseline) without dams or developed land, compared to the simulated recent-flow condition (2008 withdrawal simulation) including dams and altered landscape to calculate a percent alteration of flow. Biological samples representing the existing populations represent a range of alteration in the biological community today.For this study, all 72 IHA metrics, which included more than 7,272 linear regression models, were considered. This extensive dataset provided the opportunity for hypothesis testing and prioritization of flow-ecology relations that have the potential to explain the effect(s) of hydrologic alteration on biological metrics in Virginia streams.

  17. The Father Friendly Initiative within Families: Using a logic model to develop program theory for a father support program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gervais, Christine; de Montigny, Francine; Lacharité, Carl; Dubeau, Diane

    2015-10-01

    The transition to fatherhood, with its numerous challenges, has been well documented. Likewise, fathers' relationships with health and social services have also begun to be explored. Yet despite the problems fathers experience in interactions with healthcare services, few programs have been developed for them. To explain this, some authors point to the difficulty practitioners encounter in developing and structuring the theory of programs they are trying to create to promote and support father involvement (Savaya, R., & Waysman, M. (2005). Administration in Social Work, 29(2), 85), even when such theory is key to a program's effectiveness (Chen, H.-T. (2005). Practical program evaluation. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications). The objective of the present paper is to present a tool, the logic model, to bridge this gap and to equip practitioners for structuring program theory. This paper addresses two questions: (1) What would be a useful instrument for structuring the development of program theory in interventions for fathers? (2) How would the concepts of a father involvement program best be organized? The case of the Father Friendly Initiative within Families (FFIF) program is used to present and illustrate six simple steps for developing a logic model that are based on program theory and demonstrate its relevance. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43. MERRA-2; Initial Evaluation of the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Bosilovich, Michael G.; Akella, Santha; Lawrence, Coy; Cullather, Richard; Draper, Clara; Gelaro, Ronald; Kovach, Robin; Liu, Qing; Molod, Andrea; hide

    2015-01-01

    The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

  19. NASA's Carbon Cycle OSSE Initiative - Informing future space-based observing strategies through advanced modeling and data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, L.; Sellers, P. J.; Schimel, D.; Moore, B., III; O'Dell, C.; Crowell, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Pawson, S.; Chatterjee, A.; Baker, D. F.; Schuh, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are critically needed to improve understanding of the contemporary carbon budget and carbon-climate feedbacks. Though current carbon observing satellites have provided valuable data in regions not covered by surface in situ measurements, limited sampling of key regions and small but spatially coherent biases have limited the ability to estimate fluxes at the time and space scales needed for improved process-level understanding and informed decision-making. Next generation satellites will improve coverage in data sparse regions, either through use of active remote sensing, a geostationary vantage point, or increased swath width, but all techniques have limitations. The relative strengths and weaknesses of these approaches and their synergism have not previously been examined. To address these needs, a significant subset of the US carbon modeling community has come together with support from NASA to conduct a series of coordinated observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs), with close collaboration in framing the experiments and in analyzing the results. Here, we report on the initial phase of this initiative, which focused on creating realistic, physically consistent synthetic CO2 and CH4 observational datasets for use in inversion and signal detection experiments. These datasets have been created using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) to represent the current state of atmospheric carbon as well as best available estimates of expected flux changes. Scenarios represented include changes in urban emissions, release of permafrost soil carbon, changes in carbon uptake in tropical and mid-latitude forests, changes in the Southern Ocean sink, and changes in both anthropogenic and natural methane emissions. This GEOS carbon `nature run' was sampled by instrument simulators representing the most prominent observing strategies with a focus on consistently representing the impacts of

  20. Children’s Environmental Health Faculty Champions Initiative: A Successful Model for Integrating Environmental Health into Pediatric Health Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Bonnie; McCurdy, Leyla Erk; Slavin, Katie; Grubb, Kimberly; Roberts, James R.

    2009-01-01

    Background Pediatric medical and nursing education lack the environmental health content needed to properly prepare health care professionals to prevent, recognize, manage, and treat environmental exposure–related diseases. The need for improvements in health care professionals’ environmental health knowledge has been expressed by leading institutions. However, few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of programs that incorporate pediatric environmental health (PEH) into curricula and practice. Objective We evaluated the effectiveness of the National Environmental Education Foundation’s (NEEF) Children’s Environmental Health Faculty Champions Initiative, which is designed to build environmental health capacity among pediatric health care professionals. Methods Twenty-eight pediatric health care professionals participated in a train-the-trainer workshop, in which they were educated to train other health care professionals in PEH and integrate identified PEH competencies into medical and nursing practice and curricula. We evaluated the program using a workshop evaluation tool, action plan, pre- and posttests, baseline and progress assessments, and telephone interviews. Results During the 12 months following the workshop, the faculty champions’ average pretest score of 52% was significantly elevated (p < 0.0001) to 65.5% on the first posttest and to 71.5% on the second posttest, showing an increase and retention of environmental health knowledge. Faculty champions trained 1,559 health care professionals in PEH, exceeding the goal of 280 health care professionals trained. Ninety percent of faculty champions reported that PEH had been integrated into the curricula at their institution. Conclusion The initiative was highly effective in achieving its goal of building environmental health capacity among health care professionals. The faculty champions model is a successful method and can be replicated in other arenas. PMID:19478972

  1. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wooyeon Sunwoo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

  2. Comparison of gridded versus observation data to initialize ARAC dispersion models for the Algeciras, Spain steel mill CS-137 release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aluzzi, F J; Pace, J C; Pobanz, B M; Vogt, P J

    1999-01-01

    On May 30, 1998 scrap metal containing radioactive Cesium-137 (Cs-137) was accidentally melted in a furnace at the Acerinox steel mill in Algeciras, Spain. Cs-137 was released from the mill's smokestack, and spread across the western Mediterranean Sea to France and Italy and beyond. The first indication of the release was radiation levels up to 1000 times background reported by Swiss, French, and Italian authorities during the following two weeks. Initially no elevated radiation levels were detected over Spain. A release of hazardous material to the atmosphere is the type of situation the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) emergency response organization was designed to address. The amount and exact time of the release were unknown, though the incident was thought to have taken place during the last week in May. Using air concentration measurements supplied by colleagues of ARAC in Spain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Sweden, Russia and the European Union, ARAC meteorologists estimated the magnitude and timing of the release (Vogt, 1999). Correctly locating the downwind footprint is the most important goal of emergency response modeling. In this study, we compare predicted results for the Algeciras event based on four wind data sources: (1) US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) data alone, (2) surface and upper air observations alone, (3) NOGAPS data together with surface and upper air observations, and (4) forecasts from ARAC's in-house execution of the U.S. Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS) (without surface or upper air observations). We compare the resulting dispersion predictions from ARAC's diagnostic dispersion modeling system to the measurements supplied by our European colleagues to determine which data source produced the best results

  3. ICT Integration in Nigeria and the Quest for Indigenous Contents: Prospects of the i-CLAP Model Design Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azi, J. I.; Nkom, A. A.; Schweppe, M.

    2012-10-01

    Advances in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is transforming the 21st century learning environment, from its traditional face-to-face, structured curriculum, fixed location and teacher-centered nature, into a more flexible and self-directed process. For instance, variously designed and developed instructional multimedia contents and interfaces in forms of (i) productivity, (ii) educational or (iii) gaming software, enable active learning access as mobile or classroom technologies, interactive tutorials, online discussions, internet conferencing and online databases. However, while this article considers these recent developments such as Intellimedia, NEPAD e-School, OLPC and Intel Classmate projects and so on as trendy and groundbreaking. It observes with discontent that the design of their contents and interfaces seem to be targeted at cross-cultural audiences, with very little or no consideration for minorities like Africa. The authors opine therefore that if the challenge of ICT integration towards bridging the digital divides in Africa must be taken very serious, the task transcends merely supplying networked computer hardware to local schools. Digital contents are required that reflect the beauty and riches of Africaís culture and heritage like music, fashion, architecture, arts and crafts. Against which backdrop, the Interactive Child Learning Aid Project (i-CLAP) model was initiated as a potential indigenous resource, for enhancing pre-primary education in Nigeria adapting the ADDIE model structure. The researchers observe that while 'customizationí of ICT applications targeted at local audience is commendable, integrating relevant indigenous contents has the potential to enhance efficacy and consequently raise the motivational level of local learners.

  4. A Novel Antihepatitis Drug, Bicyclol, Prevents Liver Carcinogenesis in Diethylnitrosamine-Initiated and Phenobarbital-Promoted Mice Tumor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Sun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Bicyclol, an antihepatitis drug developed by Chinese scientists, has been shown to prevent the malignant transformation induced by 3-methylcholanthrene and 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate in WB-F344 rat liver epithelial cells. This study provides further evidence on its role as a chemopreventive agent in experimental mice with diethylnitrosamine- (DEN- initiated and phenobarbital- (PB- promoted liver carcinoma. Liver tissue and serum were collected. In the two-stage model of hepatocarcinogenesis in mice, oral administration of bicyclol (100, 200 mg/kg before DEN injection showed significant reduction in the incidence of hepatocellular foci, nodules, or carcinoma. Histopathological examination revealed that there was no hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC and hepatoma formation in the mice pretreated with bicyclol (200 mg/kg at week 20, while the mice treated with DEN/PB developed 33.3% HCC and 55.6% hepatoma. Furthermore, the serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT, alkaline phosphatase (ALP, and α-fetal protein (AFP in serum significantly increased in the DEN/PB model group in comparison with the control group. Pretreatment with bicyclol showed a marked reduction in the above condition. Bicyclol also decreased the expression of AFP and proliferating cell nuclear antigen level in the liver tissue and attenuated the decrease in body weight. In this study, we also found that 10 weeks after stopping the administration of PB and drugs, the control and bicyclol-treated (200 mg/kg animals showed no HCC and hepatoma formation at the time of termination whereas DEN/PB-induced mice developed 100% hepatoma and 50% HCC. These results further indicate that bicyclol has the chemopreventive potential for liver carcinogenesis induced by carcinogens.

  5. Effective oral favipiravir (T-705 therapy initiated after the onset of clinical disease in a model of arenavirus hemorrhagic Fever.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Mendenhall

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Lassa and Junín viruses are the most prominent members of the Arenaviridae family of viruses that cause viral hemorrhagic fever syndromes Lassa fever and Argentine hemorrhagic fever, respectively. At present, ribavirin is the only antiviral drug indicated for use in treatment of these diseases, but because of its limited efficacy in advanced cases of disease and its toxicity, safer and more effective antivirals are needed.Here, we used a model of acute arenaviral infection in outbred guinea pigs based on challenge with an adapted strain of Pichindé virus (PICV to further preclinical development of T-705 (Favipiravir, a promising broad-spectrum inhibitor of RNA virus infections. The guinea pig-adapted passage 19 PICV was uniformly lethal with an LD(50 of ∼5 plaque-forming units and disease was associated with fever, weight loss, thrombocytopenia, coagulation defects, increases in serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST concentrations, and pantropic viral infection. Favipiravir (300 mg/kg/day, twice daily orally for 14 days was highly effective, as all animals recovered fully from PICV-induced disease even when therapy was initiated one week after virus challenge when animals were already significantly ill with marked fevers and thrombocytopenia. Antiviral activity and reduced disease severity was evidenced by dramatic reductions in peak serum virus titers and AST concentrations in favipiravir-treated animals. Moreover, a sharp decrease in body temperature was observed shortly after the start of treatment. Oral ribavirin was also evaluated, and although effective, the slower rate of recovery may be a sign of the drug's known toxicity.Our findings support further development of favipiravir for the treatment of severe arenaviral infections. The optimization of the experimental favipiravir treatment regimen in the PICV guinea pig model will inform critical future studies in the same species based on challenge with highly pathogenic arenaviruses

  6. A Precision Medicine Initiative for Alzheimer's disease: the road ahead to biomarker-guided integrative disease modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampel, H; O'Bryant, S E; Durrleman, S; Younesi, E; Rojkova, K; Escott-Price, V; Corvol, J-C; Broich, K; Dubois, B; Lista, S

    2017-04-01

    After intense scientific exploration and more than a decade of failed trials, Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains a fatal global epidemic. A traditional research and drug development paradigm continues to target heterogeneous late-stage clinically phenotyped patients with single 'magic bullet' drugs. Here, we propose that it is time for a paradigm shift towards the implementation of precision medicine (PM) for enhanced risk screening, detection, treatment, and prevention of AD. The overarching structure of how PM for AD can be achieved will be provided through the convergence of breakthrough technological advances, including big data science, systems biology, genomic sequencing, blood-based biomarkers, integrated disease modeling and P4 medicine. It is hypothesized that deconstructing AD into multiple genetic and biological subsets existing within this heterogeneous target population will provide an effective PM strategy for treating individual patients with the specific agent(s) that are likely to work best based on the specific individual biological make-up. The Alzheimer's Precision Medicine Initiative (APMI) is an international collaboration of leading interdisciplinary clinicians and scientists devoted towards the implementation of PM in Neurology, Psychiatry and Neuroscience. It is hypothesized that successful realization of PM in AD and other neurodegenerative diseases will result in breakthrough therapies, such as in oncology, with optimized safety profiles, better responder rates and treatment responses, particularly through biomarker-guided early preclinical disease-stage clinical trials.

  7. The adaptive immune system promotes initiation of prostate carcinogenesis in a human c-Myc transgenic mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melis, Monique H M; Nevedomskaya, Ekaterina; van Burgsteden, Johan; Cioni, Bianca; van Zeeburg, Hester J T; Song, Ji-Ying; Zevenhoven, John; Hawinkels, Lukas J A C; de Visser, Karin E; Bergman, Andries M

    2017-11-07

    Increasing evidence from epidemiological and pathological studies suggests a role of the immune system in the initiation and progression of multiple cancers, including prostate cancer. Reports on the contribution of the adaptive immune system are contradictive, since both suppression and acceleration of disease development have been reported. This study addresses the functional role of lymphocytes in prostate cancer development using a genetically engineered mouse model (GEMM) of human c-Myc driven prostate cancer (Hi-Myc mice) combined with B and T cell deficiency (RAG1 -/- mice). From a pre-cancerous stage on, Hi-Myc mice showed higher accumulation of immune cells in their prostates then wild-type mice, of which macrophages were the most abundant. The onset of invasive adenocarcinoma was delayed in Hi-MycRAG1 -/- compared to Hi-Myc mice and associated with decreased infiltration of leukocytes into the prostate. In addition, lower levels of the cytokines CXCL2, CCL5 and TGF-β1 were detected in Hi-MycRAG1 -/- compared to Hi-Myc mouse prostates. These results from a GEMM of prostate cancer provide new insights into the promoting role of the adaptive immune system in prostate cancer development. Our findings indicate that the endogenous adaptive immune system does not protect against de novo prostate carcinogenesis in Hi-Myc transgenic mice, but rather accelerates the formation of invasive adenocarcinomas. This may have implications for the development of novel treatment strategies.

  8. Revision Arthroscopic Repair Versus Latarjet Procedure in Patients With Recurrent Instability After Initial Repair Attempt: A Cost-Effectiveness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhni, Eric C; Lamba, Nayan; Swart, Eric; Steinhaus, Michael E; Ahmad, Christopher S; Romeo, Anthony A; Verma, Nikhil N

    2016-09-01

    To compare the cost-effectiveness of arthroscopic revision instability repair and Latarjet procedure in treating patients with recurrent instability after initial arthroscopic instability repair. An expected-value decision analysis of revision arthroscopic instability repair compared with Latarjet procedure for recurrent instability followed by failed repair attempt was modeled. Inputs regarding procedure cost, clinical outcomes, and health utilities were derived from the literature. Compared with revision arthroscopic repair, Latarjet was less expensive ($13,672 v $15,287) with improved clinical outcomes (43.78 v 36.76 quality-adjusted life-years). Both arthroscopic repair and Latarjet were cost-effective compared with nonoperative treatment (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 3,082 and 1,141, respectively). Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that under scenarios of high rates of stability postoperatively, along with improved clinical outcome scores, revision arthroscopic repair becomes increasingly cost-effective. Latarjet procedure for failed instability repair is a cost-effective treatment option, with lower costs and improved clinical outcomes compared with revision arthroscopic instability repair. However, surgeons must still incorporate clinical judgment into treatment algorithm formation. Level IV, expected value decision analysis. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. SEMI-EMPIRICAL WHITE DWARF INITIAL-FINAL MASS RELATIONSHIPS: A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaris, Maurizio; Serenelli, Aldo; Weiss, Achim; Miller Bertolami, Marcelo

    2009-01-01

    Using the most recent results about white dwarfs (WDs) in ten open clusters, we revisit semiempirical estimates of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) in star clusters, with emphasis on the use of stellar evolution models. We discuss the influence of these models on each step of the derivation. One intention of our work is to use consistent sets of calculations both for the isochrones and the WD cooling tracks. The second one is to derive the range of systematic errors arising from stellar evolution theory. This is achieved by using different sources for the stellar models and by varying physical assumptions and input data. We find that systematic errors, including the determination of the cluster age, are dominating the initial mass values, while observational uncertainties influence the final mass primarily. After having determined the systematic errors, the initial-final mass relation allows us finally to draw conclusions about the physics of the stellar models, in particular about convective overshooting.

  10. Droplet number uncertainties associated with CCN: an assessment using observations and a global model adjoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Moore

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We use the Global Modelling Initiative (GMI chemical transport model with a cloud droplet parameterisation adjoint to quantify the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration to uncertainties in predicting CCN concentrations. Published CCN closure uncertainties for six different sets of simplifying compositional and mixing state assumptions are used as proxies for modelled CCN uncertainty arising from application of those scenarios. It is found that cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd are fairly insensitive to the number concentration (Na of aerosol which act as CCN over the continents (∂lnNd/∂lnNa ~10–30%, but the sensitivities exceed 70% in pristine regions such as the Alaskan Arctic and remote oceans. This means that CCN concentration uncertainties of 4–71% translate into only 1–23% uncertainty in cloud droplet number, on average. Since most of the anthropogenic indirect forcing is concentrated over the continents, this work shows that the application of Köhler theory and attendant simplifying assumptions in models is not a major source of uncertainty in predicting cloud droplet number or anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing for the liquid, stratiform clouds simulated in these models. However, it does highlight the sensitivity of some remote areas to pollution brought into the region via long-range transport (e.g., biomass burning or from seasonal biogenic sources (e.g., phytoplankton as a source of dimethylsulfide in the southern oceans. Since these transient processes are not captured well by the climatological emissions inventories employed by current large-scale models, the uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions during these events could be much larger than those uncovered here. This finding motivates additional measurements in these pristine regions, for which few observations exist, to quantify the impact (and associated uncertainty of transient aerosol processes on cloud properties.

  11. High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, R. David; Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wetzel, Peter; Belcher, Larry R.

    2004-01-01

    High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

  12. Modeling long-term risk to environmental and human systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and findings from the initial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Brandt, Charles A.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Miley, Terri B.; Napier, Bruce A.; Prendergast-Kennedy, Ellen L.; Nieves, Leslie A.

    2005-01-01

    The Groundwater/Vadose Zone (GW/VZ) Integration Project at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state is currently developing the tools and supporting data to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the region's economy and cultures from waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system of new and legacy models and data is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The environmental transport modules of the SAC modeling system provide estimates of contaminant concentrations from Hanford Site sources in a time-dependent manner in the vadose zone, groundwater, and the Columbia River and its associated sediments. The Risk/Impact Module uses these estimates of media- and time-specific concentrations to estimate potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and the cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in environmental transport on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show successful linking of codes and very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated

  13. The Initial Training of Geography Teachers at the University of Porto: Model and Training, Practices and Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Felisbela

    2015-01-01

    Since 2008, the initial training of Geography teachers in Portugal was combined with the initial training of History teachers. This forced union has led to implications in the practices and teaching of geography. This paper intends to explore the thoughts and actions of the student teachers at the Faculty of Arts and Humanities, University of…

  14. Modeling intercontinental transport of ozone in North America with CAMx for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Liu, Zhen; Stoeckenius, Till; Yarwood, Greg

    2017-08-01

    Intercontinental ozone (O3) transport extends the geographic range of O3 air pollution impacts and makes local air pollution management more difficult. Phase 3 of the Air Quality Modeling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-3) is examining the contribution of intercontinental transport to regional air quality by applying regional-scale atmospheric models jointly with global models. We investigate methods for tracing O3 from global models within regional models. The CAMx photochemical grid model was used to track contributions from boundary condition (BC) O3 over a North American modeling domain for calendar year 2010 using a built-in tracer module called RTCMC. RTCMC can track BC contributions using chemically reactive tracers and also using inert tracers in which deposition is the only sink for O3. Lack of O3 destruction chemistry in the inert tracer approach leads to overestimation biases that can exceed 10 ppb. The flexibility of RTCMC also allows tracking O3 contributions made by groups of vertical BC layers. The largest BC contributions to seasonal average daily maximum 8 h averages (MDA8) of O3 over the US are found to be from the mid-troposphere (over 40 ppb) with small contributions (a few ppb) from the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. Contributions from the lower troposphere are shown to not penetrate very far inland. Higher contributions in the western than the eastern US, reaching an average of 57 ppb in Denver for the 30 days with highest MDA8 O3 in 2010, present a significant challenge to air quality management approaches based solely on local or US-wide emission reductions. The substantial BC contribution to MDA8 O3 in the Intermountain West means regional models are particularly sensitive to any biases and errors in the BCs. A sensitivity simulation with reduced BC O3 in response to 20 % lower emissions in Asia found a near-linear relationship between the BC O3 changes and surface O3 changes in the western US in all seasons and across

  15. Modeling intercontinental transport of ozone in North America with CAMx for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII Phase 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Nopmongcol

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Intercontinental ozone (O3 transport extends the geographic range of O3 air pollution impacts and makes local air pollution management more difficult. Phase 3 of the Air Quality Modeling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-3 is examining the contribution of intercontinental transport to regional air quality by applying regional-scale atmospheric models jointly with global models. We investigate methods for tracing O3 from global models within regional models. The CAMx photochemical grid model was used to track contributions from boundary condition (BC O3 over a North American modeling domain for calendar year 2010 using a built-in tracer module called RTCMC. RTCMC can track BC contributions using chemically reactive tracers and also using inert tracers in which deposition is the only sink for O3. Lack of O3 destruction chemistry in the inert tracer approach leads to overestimation biases that can exceed 10 ppb. The flexibility of RTCMC also allows tracking O3 contributions made by groups of vertical BC layers. The largest BC contributions to seasonal average daily maximum 8 h averages (MDA8 of O3 over the US are found to be from the mid-troposphere (over 40 ppb with small contributions (a few ppb from the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. Contributions from the lower troposphere are shown to not penetrate very far inland. Higher contributions in the western than the eastern US, reaching an average of 57 ppb in Denver for the 30 days with highest MDA8 O3 in 2010, present a significant challenge to air quality management approaches based solely on local or US-wide emission reductions. The substantial BC contribution to MDA8 O3 in the Intermountain West means regional models are particularly sensitive to any biases and errors in the BCs. A sensitivity simulation with reduced BC O3 in response to 20 % lower emissions in Asia found a near-linear relationship between the BC O3 changes and surface O3 changes in the

  16. A new method for determination of most likely landslide initiation points and the evaluation of digital terrain model scale in terrain stability mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tarolli

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a new approach for determining the most likely initiation points for landslides from potential instability mapped using a terrain stability model. This approach identifies the location with critical stability index from a terrain stability model on each downslope path from ridge to valley. Any measure of terrain stability may be used with this approach, which here is illustrated using results from SINMAP, and from simply taking slope as an index of potential instability. The relative density of most likely landslide initiation points within and outside mapped landslide scars provides a way to evaluate the effectiveness of a terrain stability measure, even when mapped landslide scars include run out zones, rather than just initiation locations. This relative density was used to evaluate the utility of high resolution terrain data derived from airborne laser altimetry (LIDAR for a small basin located in the Northeastern Region of Italy. Digital Terrain Models were derived from the LIDAR data for a range of grid cell sizes (from 2 to 50 m. We found appreciable differences between the density of most likely landslide initiation points within and outside mapped landslides with ratios as large as three or more with the highest ratios for a digital terrain model grid cell size of 10 m. This leads to two conclusions: (1 The relative density from a most likely landslide initiation point approach is useful for quantifying the effectiveness of a terrain stability map when mapped landslides do not or can not differentiate between initiation, runout, and depositional areas; and (2 in this study area, where landslides occurred in complexes that were sometimes more than 100 m wide, a digital terrain model scale of 10 m is optimal. Digital terrain model scales larger than 10 m result in loss of resolution that degrades the results, while for digital terrain model scales smaller than 10 m the physical processes responsible for triggering

  17. Manufacturing Initiative

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT) Project supports multiple activities within the Administration's National Manufacturing Initiative. A key component of...

  18. Damage analysis of ceramic boron absorber materials in boiling water reactors and initial model for an optimum control rod management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, W.

    2000-01-01

    Operating experience has proved so far that BWR control rods cannot be used for the total reactor life time as originally presumed, but instead has to be considered as a consumable article. After only few operating cycles, the mechanism of absorber failure has been shown to be neutron induced boron carbide swelling and stress cracking of the absorber tubes, followed by erosion of the absorber material. In the case that operation of such a control rod is continued in control cells, this can lead to an increase of the local power density distribution in the core and, under certain conditions, can even cause fuel rod damage. A non destructive testing method has been developed called 'UNDERWATER NEUTRON RADIOGRAPHY' applicable for any BWR control rod. 'Lead-control rods' being radiographed are used to evaluate their actual nuclear worth by the help of a special analytical procedure developed and verified by the author. Nuclear worth data plotted against bum up history data will allow to create an 'EMPIRIC MODEL'. This model includes the basic idea of operating control rods of a certain design first in a control position up to a target fluence limited to an amount just below the appearance of control rod washout. Afterwards they have to be moved in a shut down position to work therefor the total remaining holding period. The initial model is applicable to any CR-design as long as sufficient measuring-data and thus data about the nuclear worth are available. The results of these experiences are extrapolated to the whole reactor holding period. After modelling no further measurements of this particular control rod type are necessary in any reactor. The second focal point is to provide an APPROXIMATION EQUATION. By knowing the absorber radius, B 4 C density and absorber enclosure data an engineer will calculate reliably the working life of any control rod design on control position. indicated as maximum allowable neutron fluence margin until absorber wash-out starts. This

  19. NASA GISS Climate Change Research Initiative: A Multidisciplinary Vertical Team Model for Improving STEM Education by Using NASA's Unique Capabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    CCRI is a year-long STEM education program designed to bring together teams of NASA scientists, graduate, undergraduate and high school interns and high school STEM educators to become immersed in NASA research focused on atmospheric and climate changes in the 21st century. GISS climate research combines analysis of global datasets with global models of atmospheric, land surface, and oceanic processes to study climate change on Earth and other planetary atmospheres as a useful tool in assessing our general understanding of climate change. CCRI interns conduct research, gain knowledge in assigned research discipline, develop and present scientific presentations summarizing their research experience. Specifically, CCRI interns write a scientific research paper explaining basic ideas, research protocols, abstract, results, conclusion and experimental design. Prepare and present a professional presentation of their research project at NASA GISS, prepare and present a scientific poster of their research project at local and national research symposiums along with other federal agencies. CCRI Educators lead research teams under the direction of a NASA GISS scientist, conduct research, develop research based learning units and assist NASA scientists with the mentoring of interns. Educators create an Applied Research STEM Curriculum Unit Portfolio based on their research experience integrating NASA unique resources, tools and content into a teacher developed unit plan aligned with the State and NGSS standards. STEM Educators also Integrate and implement NASA unique units and content into their STEM courses during academic year, perform community education STEM engagement events, mentor interns in writing a research paper, oral research reporting, power point design and scientific poster design for presentation to local and national audiences. The CCRI program contributes to the Federal STEM Co-STEM initiatives by providing opportunities, NASA education resources and

  20. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  1. A stepped-wedge evaluation of an initiative to spread the collaborative care model for depression in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solberg, Leif I; Crain, A Lauren; Maciosek, Michael V; Unützer, Jürgen; Ohnsorg, Kris A; Beck, Arne; Rubenstein, Lisa; Whitebird, Robin R; Rossom, Rebecca C; Pietruszewski, Pamela B; Crabtree, Benjamin F; Joslyn, Kenneth; Van de Ven, Andrew; Glasgow, Russell E

    2015-09-01

    Scale-up and spread of evidence-based practices is one of the most important challenges facing health care. We tested whether a statewide initiative, Depression Improvement Across Minnesota-Offering a New Direction (DIAMOND), to implement the collaborative care model for depression in 75 primary care clinics resulted in patient outcome improvements corresponding to those reported in randomized controlled trials. Health plans provided a new monthly payment to participating clinics after a 6-month intensive training program with ongoing data submission, networking, and consultation. Implementation was staggered, with 5 sequences of 10 to 40 clinics every 6 months. Payers provided weekly contact information for members from participating clinics who were filling antidepressant prescriptions, and we conducted baseline and 6-month surveys of 1,578 patients about their care and outcomes. There were 466 patients in DIAMOND clinics who received usual care before implementation (UCB), 559 who received usual care in DIAMOND clinics after implementation (UCA), 245 who received DIAMOND care after implementation (DCA), and 308 who received usual care in comparison clinics (UC). Patients who received DIAMOND care after implementation reported more collaborative care depression services than the 3 comparison groups (10.9 vs 6.4-6.7, on a scale of 0 of 14, where higher numbers indicate more services; P <.001) and more satisfaction with their care (4.0 vs 3.4 on a scale 1 to 5, in which higher scores indicate higher satisfaction; P ≤.001). Depression remission rates, however, were not significantly different among the 4 groups (36.4% DCA vs 35.8% UCB, 35.0% UCA, 33.9% UC; P = .94). Despite the incentive of a supporting payment change and intensive training and support for clinics volunteering to participate, no difference in depression outcomes was documented. Specific unmeasured actions present in trials but not present in these clinics may be critical for successful outcome

  2. Probabilistic modeling of material resistance to crack initiation due to hydrided region overloads in CANDU Zr-2.5%Nb pressure tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutkin, L.; Scarth, D.A.

    2014-01-01

    Zr-2.5%Nb pressure tubes in CANDU nuclear reactors are susceptible to hydride-assisted cracking at the locations of stress concentration, such as in-service flaws. Probabilistic methodology is being developed to evaluate such flaws for crack initiation due to hydrided region overloads, which occur when the applied stress acting on a flaw with an existing hydrided region at its tip exceeds the stress at which the hydrided region is formed. As part of this development, probabilistic modeling of pressure tube material resistance to overload crack initiation has been performed on the basis of a set of test data specifically designed to study the effects of non-ratcheting hydride formation conditions and load reduction prior to hydride formation. In the modeling framework, the overload resistance is represented as a power-law function of the material resistance to initiation of delayed hydride cracking under constant loading, where both the overload crack initiation coefficient and the overload crack initiation exponent vary with the flaw geometry. In addition, the overload crack initiation coefficient varies with the extent of load reduction prior to hydride formation as well as the number of non-ratcheting hydride formation thermal cycles. (author)

  3. Probabilistic modeling of material resistance to crack initiation due to hydrided region overloads in CANDU Zr-2.5%Nb pressure tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutkin, L.; Scarth, D.A. [Kinectrics Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Zr-2.5%Nb pressure tubes in CANDU nuclear reactors are susceptible to hydride-assisted cracking at the locations of stress concentration, such as in-service flaws. Probabilistic methodology is being developed to evaluate such flaws for crack initiation due to hydrided region overloads, which occur when the applied stress acting on a flaw with an existing hydrided region at its tip exceeds the stress at which the hydrided region is formed. As part of this development, probabilistic modeling of pressure tube material resistance to overload crack initiation has been performed on the basis of a set of test data specifically designed to study the effects of non-ratcheting hydride formation conditions and load reduction prior to hydride formation. In the modeling framework, the overload resistance is represented as a power-law function of the material resistance to initiation of delayed hydride cracking under constant loading, where both the overload crack initiation coefficient and the overload crack initiation exponent vary with the flaw geometry. In addition, the overload crack initiation coefficient varies with the extent of load reduction prior to hydride formation as well as the number of non-ratcheting hydride formation thermal cycles. (author)

  4. Predictors of initial weight loss among women with abdominal obesity: a path model using self-efficacy and health-promoting behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choo, Jina; Kang, Hyuncheol

    2015-05-01

    To identify predictors of initial weight loss among women with abdominal obesity by using a path model. Successful weight loss in the initial stages of long-term weight management may promote weight loss maintenance. A longitudinal study design. Study participants were 75 women with abdominal obesity, who were enrolled in a 12-month Community-based Heart and Weight Management Trial and followed until a 6-month assessment. The Weight Efficacy Lifestyle, Exercise Self-Efficacy and Health Promoting Lifestyle Profile-II measured diet self-efficacy, exercise self-efficacy and health-promoting behaviour respectively. All endogenous and exogenous variables used in our path model were change variables from baseline to 6 months. Data were collected between May 2011-May 2012. Based on the path model, increases in both diet and exercise self-efficacy had significant effects on increases in health-promoting behaviour. Increases in diet self-efficacy had a significant indirect effect on initial weight loss via increases in health-promoting behaviour. Increases in health-promoting behaviour had a significant effect on initial weight loss. Among women with abdominal obesity, increased diet self-efficacy and health-promoting behaviour were predictors of initial weight loss. A mechanism by which increased diet self-efficacy predicts initial weight loss may be partially attributable to health-promoting behavioural change. However, more work is still needed to verify causality. Based on the current findings, intensive nursing strategies for increasing self-efficacy for weight control and health-promoting behaviour may be essential components for better weight loss in the initial stage of a weight management intervention. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Initial draft of CSE-UCLA evaluation model based on weighted product in order to optimize digital library services in computer college in Bali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divayana, D. G. H.; Adiarta, A.; Abadi, I. B. G. S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this research was to create initial design of CSE-UCLA evaluation model modified with Weighted Product in evaluating digital library service at Computer College in Bali. The method used in this research was developmental research method and developed by Borg and Gall model design. The results obtained from the research that conducted earlier this month was a rough sketch of Weighted Product based CSE-UCLA evaluation model that the design had been able to provide a general overview of the stages of weighted product based CSE-UCLA evaluation model used in order to optimize the digital library services at the Computer Colleges in Bali.

  6. Unilateral initiatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reports on arms control which is generally thought of in terms of formal negotiations with an opponent, with the resulting agreements embodied in a treaty. This is not surprising, since arms control discussions between opponents are both important and politically visible. There are, however, strong reasons for countries to consider and frequently take unilateral initiatives. To do so is entirely consistent with the established major precepts of arms control which state that arms control is designed to reduce the risk of war, the costs of preparing for war, and the death and destruction if war should come. Unilateral initiatives on what weapons are purchased, which ones are eliminated and how forces are deployed can all relate to these objectives. There are two main categories of motives for unilateral initiatives in arms control. In one category, internal national objectives are the dominant, often sole, driving force; the initiative is undertaken for our own good

  7. Ports Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Ports Initiative works in collaboration with the port industry, communities, and government to improve environmental performance and increase economic prosperity. This effort helps people near ports breath cleaner air and live better lives.

  8. An Inclusive Learning Initiative at NUI Maynooth: The Search for a Model of Best Practice for Integrating Students with Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noonan, Mary

    2012-01-01

    While students with disabilities have been accepted into universities for many years, the inclusion of students with intellectual disabilities is a relatively new concept here in Ireland. This article outlines the search by NUI Maynooth, for a model on which to base an inclusive learning initiative for students with intellectual disabilities. The…

  9. Enhancing Infant Mental Health Using a Capacity-Building Model: A Case Study of a Process Evaluation of the "Ready, Steady, Grow" Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Farrelly, Christine; Guerin, Suzanne; Victory, Gerard

    2017-01-01

    Infant mental health (IMH) is best promoted through a continuum of services underpinned by strong service capacity. However, service providers often lack fundamental IMH knowledge and skills. Using the Ready, Steady, Grow (RSG) initiative as a case study of a capacity-building model (P., Hawe, L., King, M., Noort, C., Jordens, & B., Llyod,…

  10. The Use of Video Modeling with the Picture Exchange Communication System to Increase Independent Communicative Initiations in Preschoolers with Autism and Developmental Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cihak, David F.; Smith, Catherine C.; Cornett, Ashlee; Coleman, Mari Beth

    2012-01-01

    The use of video modeling (VM) procedures in conjunction with the picture exchange communication system (PECS) to increase independent communicative initiations in preschool-age students was evaluated in this study. The four participants were 3-year-old children with limited communication skills prior to the intervention. Two of the students had…

  11. SIMULTANEOUS MEASUREMENT OF FREE RADICAL DECAY IN POLYMERIZATION OF MMA INITIATED BY AIBN USING ESR AND ITS KINETIC MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping Xia; Qing-song Hu; Xiao-lan Qian; Xul-in Jiang; De-yue Yan

    2001-01-01

    The kinetics of free radical decay in the polymerization of MMA initiated by AIBN was studied by means of ESR spectroscopy. It was found that the curves of radical decay are strongly associated with the reaction temperature, the initiator concentration and the solvent. In the case of the radical polymerization carried out at high temperature or in solution, the radical concentration first reached a maximum, then declined monotonously with reaction time. It was also found that the greater the amount of initiator or the higher the temperature, the more rapidly the radicals decay. When the bulk polymerization was implemented at a relatively low temperature, the curves of radical decay became more complicated, i.e.,the radical concentration rapidly rose to a maximum, then dropped to a minimum, finally increased again with reaction time.Taking into account the diffusion effect, a semi-empirical equation is suggested to describe the kinetics of propagating radical decay.

  12. Collisional plasma transport: two-dimensional scalar formulation of the initial boundary value problem and quasi one-dimensional models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mugge, J.W.

    1979-10-01

    The collisional plasma transport problem is formulated as an initial boundary value problem for general characteristic boundary conditions. Starting from the full set of hydrodynamic and electrodynamic equations an expansion in the electron-ion mass ratio together with a multiple timescale method yields simplified equations on each timescale. On timescales where many collisions have taken place for the simplified equations the initial boundary value problem is formulated. Through the introduction of potentials a two-dimensional scalar formulation in terms of quasi-linear integro-differential equations of second order for a domain consisting of plasma and vacuum sub-domains is obtained. (Auth.)

  13. The role of social networks and media receptivity in predicting age of smoking initiation: a proportional hazards model of risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, J B; Chen, X

    1999-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of adolescent smoking demonstrates the need to identify factors associated with early smoking initiation. Previous studies have shown that smoking by social network members and receptivity to pro-tobacco marketing are associated with smoking among adolescents. It is not clear, however, whether these variables also are associated with the age of smoking initiation. Using data from 10,030 California adolescents, this study identified significant correlates of age of smoking initiation using bivariate methods and a multivariate proportional hazards model. Age of smoking initiation was earlier among those adolescents whose friends, siblings, or parents were smokers, and among those adolescents who had a favorite tobacco advertisement, had received tobacco promotional items, or would be willing to use tobacco promotional items. Results suggest that the smoking behavior of social network members and pro-tobacco media influences are important determinants of age of smoking initiation. Because early smoking initiation is associated with higher levels of addiction in adulthood, tobacco control programs should attempt to counter these influences.

  14. Estimating the Impact of Earlier ART Initiation and Increased Testing Coverage on HIV Transmission among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mexico using a Mathematical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro-Vega, Yanink; del Rio, Carlos; Lima, Viviane Dias; Lopez-Cervantes, Malaquias; Crabtree-Ramirez, Brenda; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M Arantxa; Sierra-Madero, Juan

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the impact of late ART initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mexico. An HIV transmission model was built to estimate the number of infections transmitted by HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM-HIV+) MSM-HIV+ in the short and long term. Sexual risk behavior data were estimated from a nationwide study of MSM. CD4+ counts at ART initiation from a representative national cohort were used to estimate time since infection. Number of MSM-HIV+ on treatment and suppressed were estimated from surveillance and government reports. Status quo scenario (SQ), and scenarios of early ART initiation and increased HIV testing were modeled. We estimated 14239 new HIV infections per year from MSM-HIV+ in Mexico. In SQ, MSM take an average 7.4 years since infection to initiate treatment with a median CD4+ count of 148 cells/mm3(25th-75th percentiles 52-266). In SQ, 68% of MSM-HIV+ are not aware of their HIV status and transmit 78% of new infections. Increasing the CD4+ count at ART initiation to 350 cells/mm3 shortened the time since infection to 2.8 years. Increasing HIV testing to cover 80% of undiagnosed MSM resulted in a reduction of 70% in new infections in 20 years. Initiating ART at 500 cells/mm3 and increasing HIV testing the reduction would be of 75% in 20 years. A substantial number of new HIV infections in Mexico are transmitted by undiagnosed and untreated MSM-HIV+. An aggressive increase in HIV testing coverage and initiating ART at a CD4 count of 500 cells/mm3 in this population would significantly benefit individuals and decrease the number of new HIV infections in Mexico.

  15. Application of model of incremental haemodialysis, based on residual renal function, at the initiation of renal replacement therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José L. Merino

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: Incremental HD treatment, with twice-weekly HD, may be an alternative in selected patients. This approach can largely preserve residual renal function at least for the first year. Although this pattern probably is not applicable to all patients starting RRT, it can and should be an initial alternative to consider.

  16. Spiral Wave Initiation in Reaction-Diffusion-Mechanics Systems: A Model for the Onset of Reentrant Cardiac Arrhythmia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weise, L.D.

    2012-01-01

    Heart failure due to cardiac arrhythmias is a major cause of death in the industrialized world. Cardiac arrhythmia is often caused by spi- ral waves of electrical activity in the cardiac muscle. Therefore, it is a major task in cardiology to understand the mechanisms of spiral wave initiation in the

  17. About the RAS Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    The RAS Initiative, a "hub and spoke" model, connects researchers to better understand and target the more than 30% of cancers driven by mutations in RAS genes. Includes oversight and contact information.

  18. Elucidation of Altered Pathways in Tumor-Initiating Cells of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Useful Cell Model System for Drug Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Anne G; Ehmsen, Sidse; Terp, Mikkel G; Batra, Richa; Alcaraz, Nicolas; Baumbach, Jan; Noer, Julie B; Moreira, José; Leth-Larsen, Rikke; Larsen, Martin R; Ditzel, Henrik J

    2017-08-01

    A limited number of cancer cells within a tumor are thought to have self-renewing and tumor-initiating capabilities that produce the remaining cancer cells in a heterogeneous tumor mass. Elucidation of central pathways preferentially used by tumor-initiating cells/cancer stem cells (CSCs) may allow their exploitation as potential cancer therapy targets. We used single cell cloning to isolate and characterize four isogenic cell clones from a triple-negative breast cancer cell line; two exhibited mesenchymal-like and two epithelial-like characteristics. Within these pairs, one, but not the other, resulted in tumors in immunodeficient NOD/Shi-scid/IL-2 Rγ null mice and efficiently formed mammospheres. Quantitative proteomics and phosphoproteomics were used to map signaling pathways associated with the tumor-initiating ability. Signaling associated with apoptosis was suppressed in tumor-initiating versus nontumorigenic counterparts with pro-apoptotic proteins, such as Bcl2-associated agonist of cell death (BAD), FAS-associated death domain protein (FADD), and myeloid differentiation primary response protein (MYD88), downregulated in tumor-initiating epithelial-like cells. Functional studies confirmed significantly lower apoptosis in tumor-initiating versus nontumorigenic cells. Moreover, central pathways, including β-catenin and nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB)-related signaling, exhibited increased activation in the tumor-initiating cells. To evaluate the CSC model as a tool for drug screening, we assessed the effect of separately blocking NF-κB and Wnt/β-catenin signaling and found markedly reduced mammosphere formation, particularly for tumor-initiating cells. Similar reduction was also observed using patient-derived primary cancer cells. Furthermore, blocking NF-κB signaling in mice transplanted with tumor-initiating cells significantly reduced tumor outgrowth. Our study demonstrates that suppressed apoptosis, activation

  19. Mathematical modeling of the ethanol fermentation of cashew apple juice by a flocculent yeast: the effect of initial substrate concentration and temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, Álvaro Daniel Teles; da Silva Pereira, Andréa; Barros, Emanuel Meneses; Antonini, Sandra Regina Ceccato; Cartaxo, Samuel Jorge Marques; Rocha, Maria Valderez Ponte; Gonçalves, Luciana Rocha B

    2017-08-01

    In this work, the effect of initial sugar concentration and temperature on the production of ethanol by Saccharomyces cerevisiae CCA008, a flocculent yeast, using cashew apple juice in a 1L-bioreactor was studied. The experimental results were used to develop a kinetic model relating biomass, ethanol production and total reducing sugar consumption. Monod, Andrews, Levenspiel and Ghose and Tyagi models were investigated to represent the specific growth rate without inhibition, with inhibition by substrate and with inhibition by product, respectively. Model validation was performed using a new set of experimental data obtained at 34 °C and using 100 g L -1 of initial substrate concentration. The model proposed by Ghose and Tyagi was able to accurately describe the dynamics of ethanol production by S. cerevisiae CCA008 growing on cashew apple juice, containing an initial reducing sugar concentration ranging from 70 to 170 g L -1 and temperature, from 26 to 42 °C. The model optimization was also accomplished based on the following parameters: percentage volume of ethanol per volume of solution (%V ethanol /V solution ), efficiency and reaction productivity. The optimal operational conditions were determined using response surface graphs constructed with simulated data, reaching an efficiency and a productivity of 93.5% and 5.45 g L -1  h -1 , respectively.

  20. A Mathematical Model of Neutral Lipid Content in terms of Initial Nitrogen Concentration and Validation in Coelastrum sp. HA-1 and Application in Chlorella sorokiniana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Microalgae are considered to be a potential major biomass feedstock for biofuel due to their high lipid content. However, no correlation equations as a function of initial nitrogen concentration for lipid accumulation have been developed for simplicity to predict lipid production and optimize the lipid production process. In this study, a lipid accumulation model was developed with simple parameters based on the assumption protein synthesis shift to lipid synthesis by a linear function of nitrogen quota. The model predictions fitted well for the growth, lipid content, and nitrogen consumption of Coelastrum sp. HA-1 under various initial nitrogen concentrations. Then the model was applied successfully in Chlorella sorokiniana to predict the lipid content with different light intensities. The quantitative relationship between initial nitrogen concentrations and the final lipid content with sensitivity analysis of the model were also discussed. Based on the model results, the conversion efficiency from protein synthesis to lipid synthesis is higher and higher in microalgae metabolism process as nitrogen decreases; however, the carbohydrate composition content remains basically unchanged neither in HA-1 nor in C. sorokiniana.

  1. A Mathematical Model of Neutral Lipid Content in terms of Initial Nitrogen Concentration and Validation in Coelastrum sp. HA-1 and Application in Chlorella sorokiniana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yue; Liu, Zhiyong; Liu, Chenfeng; Hu, Zhipeng

    2017-01-01

    Microalgae are considered to be a potential major biomass feedstock for biofuel due to their high lipid content. However, no correlation equations as a function of initial nitrogen concentration for lipid accumulation have been developed for simplicity to predict lipid production and optimize the lipid production process. In this study, a lipid accumulation model was developed with simple parameters based on the assumption protein synthesis shift to lipid synthesis by a linear function of nitrogen quota. The model predictions fitted well for the growth, lipid content, and nitrogen consumption of Coelastrum sp. HA-1 under various initial nitrogen concentrations. Then the model was applied successfully in Chlorella sorokiniana to predict the lipid content with different light intensities. The quantitative relationship between initial nitrogen concentrations and the final lipid content with sensitivity analysis of the model were also discussed. Based on the model results, the conversion efficiency from protein synthesis to lipid synthesis is higher and higher in microalgae metabolism process as nitrogen decreases; however, the carbohydrate composition content remains basically unchanged neither in HA-1 nor in C. sorokiniana. PMID:28194424

  2. Influence of regression model and initial intensity of an incremental test on the relationship between the lactate threshold estimated by the maximal-deviation method and running performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Concejero, Jordan; Tucker, Ross; Granados, Cristina; Irazusta, Jon; Bidaurrazaga-Letona, Iraia; Zabala-Lili, Jon; Gil, Susana María

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the influence of the regression model and initial intensity during an incremental test on the relationship between the lactate threshold estimated by the maximal-deviation method and performance in elite-standard runners. Twenty-three well-trained runners completed a discontinuous incremental running test on a treadmill. Speed started at 9 km · h(-1) and increased by 1.5 km · h(-1) every 4 min until exhaustion, with a minute of recovery for blood collection. Lactate-speed data were fitted by exponential and polynomial models. The lactate threshold was determined for both models, using all the co-ordinates, excluding the first and excluding the first and second points. The exponential lactate threshold was greater than the polynomial equivalent in any co-ordinate condition (P performance and is independent of the initial intensity of the test.

  3. A pore structure model for the gas transport property changes, initial oxidation rates and cumulative weight loss of AGR moderator graphite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.A.V.

    1985-09-01

    A quantitative model has been developed for the gas transport property variation, cumulative weight loss and initial oxidation rates of AGR moderator graphite. The model utilises the theory of dynamic moments of the pore structure to calculate the changes in physical properties brought about by radiolytic corrosion taking place within the graphite porosity. In order to account for the behaviour of the initial rate curves, and the weight loss data obtained it is necessary to invoke the presence of a group of cylindrical pore and a group of small slab-shaped pores. The latter are methane depleted. This is in addition to the pore group involved in gas transport which is best represented by cylinders of mean radius 2.13 μm. The model satisfactorily predicts the experimental weight loss data obtained from experiments in the DIDO 6V3 and BFB loops. (author)

  4. Time evolution of one-dimensional gapless models from a domain wall initial state: stochastic Loewner evolution continued?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabrese, Pasquale; Hagendorf, Christian; Doussal, Pierre Le

    2008-01-01

    We study the time evolution of quantum one-dimensional gapless systems evolving from initial states with a domain wall. We generalize the path integral imaginary time approach that together with boundary conformal field theory allows us to derive the time and space dependence of general correlation functions. The latter are explicitly obtained for the Ising universality class, and the typical behavior of one- and two-point functions is derived for the general case. Possible connections with the stochastic Loewner evolution are discussed and explicit results for one-point time dependent averages are obtained for generic κ for boundary conditions corresponding to stochastic Loewner evolution. We use this set of results to predict the time evolution of the entanglement entropy and obtain the universal constant shift due to the presence of a domain wall in the initial state

  5. Initial Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torp, Kristian

    2009-01-01

    increased. In the initial study presented here, the time it takes to pass an intersection is studied in details. Two major signal-controlled four-way intersections in the center of the city Aalborg are studied in details to estimate the congestion levels in these intersections, based on the time it takes...

  6. The meta-leadership summit for preparedness initiative: an innovative model to advance public health preparedness and response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobelson, Robyn K; Young, Andrea C; Marcus, Leonard J; Dorn, Barry C; Neslund, Verla S; McNulty, Eric J

    2013-12-01

    This article reports on the design, evaluation framework, and results from the Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness was a 5-year initiative based on the premise that national preparedness and emergency response is not solely the responsibility of government. From 2006 to 2011, 36 Meta-Leadership Summits were delivered in communities across the country. Summits were customized, 10-hour leadership development, networking, and community action planning events. They included participation from targeted federal, state, local, nonprofit/philanthropic, and private sector leaders who are directly involved in decision making during a major community or state-wide emergency. A total of 4,971 government, nonprofit, and business leaders attended Meta-Leadership Summits; distribution of attendees by sector was balanced. Ninety-three percent of respondents reported the summit was a valuable use of time, 91% reported the overall quality as "good" or "outstanding," and 91% would recommend the summit to their colleagues. In addition, approximately 6 months after attending a summit, 80% of respondents reported that they had used meta-leadership concepts or principles. Of these, 93% reported that using meta-leadership concepts or principles had made a positive difference for them and their organizations. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative was a value-added opportunity for communities, providing the venue for learning the concepts and practice of meta-leadership, multisector collaboration, and resource sharing with the intent of substantively improving preparedness, response, and recovery efforts.

  7. A new ghost-node method for linking different models and initial investigations of heterogeneity and nonmatching grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, J.E.; James, S.C.; Mehl, S.; Hill, M.C.; Leake, S.A.; Zyvoloski, G.A.; Faunt, C.C.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.

    2007-01-01

    A flexible, robust method for linking parent (regional-scale) and child (local-scale) grids of locally refined models that use different numerical methods is developed based on a new, iterative ghost-node method. Tests are presented for two-dimensional and three-dimensional pumped systems that are homogeneous or that have simple heterogeneity. The parent and child grids are simulated using the block-centered finite-difference MODFLOW and control-volume finite-element FEHM models, respectively. The models are solved iteratively through head-dependent (child model) and specified-flow (parent model) boundary conditions. Boundary conditions for models with nonmatching grids or zones of different hydraulic conductivity are derived and tested against heads and flows from analytical or globally-refined models. Results indicate that for homogeneous two- and three-dimensional models with matched grids (integer number of child cells per parent cell), the new method is nearly as accurate as the coupling of two MODFLOW models using the shared-node method and, surprisingly, errors are slightly lower for nonmatching grids (noninteger number of child cells per parent cell). For heterogeneous three-dimensional systems, this paper compares two methods for each of the two sets of boundary conditions: external heads at head-dependent boundary conditions for the child model are calculated using bilinear interpolation or a Darcy-weighted interpolation; specified-flow boundary conditions for the parent model are calculated using model-grid or hydrogeologic-unit hydraulic conductivities. Results suggest that significantly more accurate heads and flows are produced when both Darcy-weighted interpolation and hydrogeologic-unit hydraulic conductivities are used, while the other methods produce larger errors at the boundary between the regional and local models. The tests suggest that, if posed correctly, the ghost-node method performs well. Additional testing is needed for highly

  8. Transient Outward K+ Current (Ito) Underlies the Right Ventricular Initiation of Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia in a Transgenic Rabbit Model of Long-QT Syndrome Type 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Bum-Rak; Li, Weiyan; Terentyev, Dmitry; Kabakov, Anatoli Y; Zhong, Mingwang; Rees, Colin M; Terentyeva, Radmila; Kim, Tae Yun; Qu, Zhilin; Peng, Xuwen; Karma, Alain; Koren, Gideon

    2018-06-01

    Sudden death in long-QT syndrome type 1 (LQT1), an inherited disease caused by loss-of-function mutations in KCNQ1, is triggered by early afterdepolarizations (EADs) that initiate polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (pVT). We investigated ionic mechanisms that underlie pVT in LQT1 using a transgenic rabbit model of LQT1. Optical mapping, cellular patch clamping, and computer modeling were used to elucidate the mechanisms of EADs in transgenic LQT1 rabbits. The results showed that shorter action potential duration in the right ventricle (RV) was associated with focal activity during pVT initiation. RV cardiomyocytes demonstrated higher incidence of EADs under 50 nmol/L isoproterenol. Voltage-clamp studies revealed that the transient outward potassium current (I to ) magnitude was 28% greater in RV associated with KChiP2 but with no differences in terms of calcium-cycling kinetics and other sarcolemmal currents. Perfusing with the I to blocker 4-aminopyridine changed the initial focal sites of pVT from the RV to the left ventricle, corroborating the role of I to in pVT initiation. Computer modeling showed that EADs occur preferentially in the RV because of the larger conductance of the slow-inactivating component of I to , which repolarizes the membrane potential sufficiently rapidly to allow reactivation of I Ca,L before I Kr has had sufficient time to activate. I to heterogeneity creates both triggers and an arrhythmogenic substrate in LQT1. In the absence of I Ks , I to interactions with I Ca,L and I Kr promote EADs in the RV while prolonging action potential duration in the left ventricle. This heterogeneity of action potential enhances dispersion of refractoriness and facilitates conduction blocks that initiate pVTs. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative: An Innovative Model to Advance Public Health Preparedness and Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobelson, Robyn K.; Young, Andrea C.; Marcus, Leonard J.; Dorn, Barry C.; Neslund, Verla S.; McNulty, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    This article reports on the design, evaluation framework, and results from the Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness was a 5-year initiative based on the premise that national preparedness and emergency response is not solely the responsibility of government. From 2006 to 2011, 36 Meta-Leadership Summits were delivered in communities across the country. Summits were customized, 10-hour leadership development, networking, and community action planning events. They included participation from targeted federal, state, local, nonprofit/philanthropic, and private sector leaders who are directly involved in decision making during a major community or state-wide emergency. A total of 4,971 government, nonprofit, and business leaders attended Meta-Leadership Summits; distribution of attendees by sector was balanced. Ninety-three percent of respondents reported the summit was a valuable use of time, 91% reported the overall quality as “good” or “outstanding,” and 91% would recommend the summit to their colleagues. In addition, approximately 6 months after attending a summit, 80% of respondents reported that they had used meta-leadership concepts or principles. Of these, 93% reported that using meta-leadership concepts or p