WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling hydrologic responses

  1. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  2. Modelling hydrological responses of Nerbioi River Basin to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Chust, Guillem; Torp, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Future climate change will affect aquatic systems on various pathways. Regarding the hydrological cycle, which is a very important pathway, changes in hydrometeorological variables (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) in first order impact discharges. The fourth report assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is evidence that the recent warming of the climate system would result in more frequent extreme precipitation events, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. Available research and climate model outputs indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99%). For example, it is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. In Spain, within the Atlantic basin, the hydrological variability will increase in the future due to the intensification of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This might cause flood frequency decreases, but its magnitude does not decrease. The generation of flood, its duration and magnitude are closely linked to changes in winter precipitation. The climatic conditions and relief of the Iberian Peninsula favour the generation of floods. In Spain, floods had historically strong socio-economic impacts, with more than 1525 victims in the past five decades. This upward trend of hydrological variability is expected to remain in the coming decades (medium uncertainty) when the intensification of the positive phase of the NAO index (MMA, 2006) is considered. In order to adapt or minimize climate change impacts in water resources, it is necessary to use climate projections as well as hydrological modelling tools. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the hydrological response to climate changes in flow conditions in Nerbioi river

  3. Parsimonious Hydrologic and Nitrate Response Models For Silver Springs, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klammler, Harald; Yaquian-Luna, Jose Antonio; Jawitz, James W.; Annable, Michael D.; Hatfield, Kirk

    2014-05-01

    Silver Springs with an approximate discharge of 25 m3/sec is one of Florida's first magnitude springs and among the largest springs worldwide. Its 2500-km2 springshed overlies the mostly unconfined Upper Floridan Aquifer. The aquifer is approximately 100 m thick and predominantly consists of porous, fractured and cavernous limestone, which leads to excellent surface drainage properties (no major stream network other than Silver Springs run) and complex groundwater flow patterns through both rock matrix and fast conduits. Over the past few decades, discharge from Silver Springs has been observed to slowly but continuously decline, while nitrate concentrations in the spring water have enormously increased from a background level of 0.05 mg/l to over 1 mg/l. In combination with concurrent increases in algae growth and turbidity, for example, and despite an otherwise relatively stable water quality, this has given rise to concerns about the ecological equilibrium in and near the spring run as well as possible impacts on tourism. The purpose of the present work is to elaborate parsimonious lumped parameter models that may be used by resource managers for evaluating the springshed's hydrologic and nitrate transport responses. Instead of attempting to explicitly consider the complex hydrogeologic features of the aquifer in a typically numerical and / or stochastic approach, we use a transfer function approach wherein input signals (i.e., time series of groundwater recharge and nitrate loading) are transformed into output signals (i.e., time series of spring discharge and spring nitrate concentrations) by some linear and time-invariant law. The dynamic response types and parameters are inferred from comparing input and output time series in frequency domain (e.g., after Fourier transformation). Results are converted into impulse (or step) response functions, which describe at what time and to what magnitude a unitary change in input manifests at the output. For the

  4. Modeling low impact development potential with hydrological response units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric, Marija; Fan, Celia; Joksimovic, Darko; Li, James Y

    2013-01-01

    Evaluations of benefits of implementing low impact development (LID) stormwater management techniques can extend up to a watershed scale. This presents a challenge for representing them in watershed models, since they are typically orders of magnitude smaller in size. This paper presents an approach that is focused on trying to evaluate the benefits of implementing LIDs on a lot level. The methodology uses the concept of urban hydrological response Unit and results in developing and applying performance curves that are a function of lot properties to estimate the potential benefit of large-scale LID implementation. Lot properties are determined using a municipal geographic information system database and processed to determine groups of lots with similar properties. A representative lot from each group is modeled over a typical rainfall year using USEPA Stormwater Management Model to develop performance functions that relate the lot properties and the change in annual runoff volume and corresponding phosphorus loading with different LIDs implemented. The results of applying performance functions on all urban areas provide the potential locations, benefit and cost of implementation of all LID techniques, guiding future decisions for LID implementation by watershed area municipalities.

  5. Hydrologic responses of large drainage to clearcutting: a modeling perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Duan; R. R. Ziemer; G. E. Grant

    1997-01-01

    As forested watersheds become more intensively managed, it is increaseingly important to understand the range of hydrologic impacts in order to maintain the biodiversity and sustainability of these forested systems. Paired-watershed studies are often used to evaluate effects of timber harvest on watershed processes.

  6. Modeling the effect of glacier recession on streamflow response using a coupled glacio-hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. S. Naz

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe an integrated spatially distributed hydrologic and glacier dynamic model, and use it to investigate the effect of glacier recession on streamflow variations for the Upper Bow River basin, a tributary of the South Saskatchewan River. Several recent studies have suggested that observed decreases in summer flows in the South Saskatchewan River are partly due to the retreat of glaciers in the river's headwaters. Modeling the effect of glacier changes on streamflow response in river basins such as the South Saskatchewan is complicated due to the inability of most existing physically-based distributed hydrologic models to represent glacier dynamics. We compare predicted variations in glacier extent, snow water equivalent and streamflow discharge made with the integrated model with satellite estimates of glacier area and terminus position, observed streamflow and snow water equivalent measurements over the period of 1980–2007. Simulations with the coupled hydrology-glacier model reduce the uncertainty in streamflow predictions. Our results suggested that on average, the glacier melt contribution to the Bow River flow upstream of Lake Louise is about 30% in summer. For warm and dry years, however, the glacier melt contribution can be as large as 50% in August, whereas for cold years, it can be as small as 20% and the timing of glacier melt signature can be delayed by a month.

  7. Modeling Land Use Change In A Tropical Environment Using Similar Hydrologic Response Units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guardiola-Claramonte, M.; Troch, P.

    2006-12-01

    Montane mainland South East Asia comprises areas of great biological and cultural diversity. Over the last decades the region has overcome an important conversion from traditional agriculture to cash crop agriculture driven by regional and global markets. Our study aims at understanding the hydrological implications of these land use changes at the catchment scale. In 2004, networks of hydro-meteorological stations observing water and energy fluxes were installed in two 70 km2 catchments in Northern Thailand (Chiang Mai Province) and Southern China (Yunnan Province). In addition, a detailed soil surveying campaign was done at the moment of instrument installation. Land use is monitored periodically using satellite data. The Thai catchment is switching from small agricultural fields to large extensions of cash crops. The Chinese catchment is replacing the traditional forest for rubber plantations. A first comparative study based on catchments' geomorphologic characteristics, field observations and rainfall-runoff response revealed the dominant hydrologic processes in the catchments. Land use information is then translated into three different Hydrologic Response Units (HRU): rice paddies, pervious and impervious surfaces. The pervious HRU include different land uses such as different stages of forest development, rubber plantations, and agricultural fields; the impervious ones are urban areas, roads and outcrops. For each HRU a water and energy balance model is developed incorporating field observed hydrologic processes, measured field parameters, and literature-based vegetation and soil parameters to better describe the root zone, surface and subsurface flow characteristics without the need of further calibration. The HRU water and energy balance models are applied to single hillslopes and their integrated hydrologic response are compared for different land covers. Finally, the response of individual hillslopes is routed through the channel network to represent

  8. Modeling of Andean Páramo Ecosystems’ Hydrological Response to Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Flores-López

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the Peruvian Andes, water infiltration from tropical wetlands, called páramo, generates headwaters for downstream rivers. The hydrological processes of these wetlands are not well understood within the larger hydrological system, impeding efforts to mitigate the rapid environmental changes anticipated due to regional population growth and climate change. This study constructed and calibrated a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP system model for ecosystems with sparse data in the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed in the Piura region of Peru. The model simulates the impacts of possible changes within the hydrological system to assist decision-makers in strategizing about sustainable development for the region, especially the páramo. Using scenarios designed with stakeholder participation, the WEAP model for the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed examines river headflow production, reservoir water levels, and demand coverage for downstream users when the upstream páramo and its environs are subjected to changes of temperature, precipitation, and land use. The model reveals that while temperature and precipitation changes can be expected to impact páramo water production, the anticipated land use changes will be a primary driver of hydrological responses in the páramo and subsequent changes downstream.

  9. Comparing rainfall variability, model complexity and hydrological response at the intra-event scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Ochoa-Rodriguez, Susana; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-04-01

    The high variability in space and time of rainfall is one of the main aspects that influence hydrological response and generation of pluvial flooding. This phenomenon has a bigger impact in urban areas, where response is usually faster and flow peaks are typically higher, due to the high degree of imperviousness. Previous researchers have investigated sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic models to rainfall space-time resolution as well as interactions with model structure and resolution. They showed that finding a proper match between rainfall resolution and model complexity is important and that sensitivity increases for smaller urban catchment scales. Results also showed high variability in hydrological response sensitivity, the origins of which remain poorly understood. In this work, we investigate the interaction between rainfall input variability and model structure and scale at high resolution, i.e. 1-15 minutes in time and 100m to 3 km in space. Apart from studying summary statistics such as relative peak flow errors and coefficient of determination, we look into characteristics of response hydrographs to find explanations for response variability in relation to catchment properties as well storm event characteristics (e.g. storm scale and movement, single-peak versus multi-peak events). The aim is to identify general relations between storm temporal and spatial scale and catchment scale in explaining variability of hydrological response. Analyses are conducted for the Cranbrook catchment (London, UK), using 3 hydrodynamic models set up in InfoWorks ICM: a low resolution semi-distributed (SD1) model, a high resolution semi-distributed (SD2) model and a fully distributed (FD) model. These models represent the spatial variability of the land in different ways: semi-distributed models divide the surface in subcatchments, each of them modelled in a lumped way (51 subcatchment for the S model and 4409 subcatchments for the SD model), while the fully distributed

  10. Predicting hydrological response to forest changes by simple statistical models: the selection of the best indicator of forest changes with a hydrological perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, D.; Zhang, M.; Ren, S.; Hou, Y.; Yu, L.; Meng, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Forest plays an important role in hydrological cycle, and forest changes will inevitably affect runoff across multiple spatial scales. The selection of a suitable indicator for forest changes is essential for predicting forest-related hydrological response. This study used the Meijiang River, one of the headwaters of the Poyang Lake as an example to identify the best indicator of forest changes for predicting forest change-induced hydrological responses. Correlation analysis was conducted first to detect the relationships between monthly runoff and its predictive variables including antecedent monthly precipitation and indicators for forest changes (forest coverage, vegetation indices including EVI, NDVI, and NDWI), and by use of the identified predictive variables that were most correlated with monthly runoff, multiple linear regression models were then developed. The model with best performance identified in this study included two independent variables -antecedent monthly precipitation and NDWI. It indicates that NDWI is the best indicator of forest change in hydrological prediction while forest coverage, the most commonly used indicator of forest change is insignificantly related to monthly runoff. This highlights the use of vegetation index such as NDWI to indicate forest changes in hydrological studies. This study will provide us with an efficient way to quantify the hydrological impact of large-scale forest changes in the Meijiang River watershed, which is crucial for downstream water resource management and ecological protection in the Poyang Lake basin.

  11. Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by the internal atmospheric variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gelfan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to the uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties. Importantly, the role of the internal atmospheric variability is the most visible over the spatial–temporal scales of water management in large river basins. The internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. The ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012 and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of the bias-corrected ECHAM5-outputs as well as ensemble averaged ECHAM5-output are used as the distributed input for ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and the Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the SD of the annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as the annual runoff trend are assessed. The uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by the internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that the uncertainty of the mean and SD of the runoff has a distinguished seasonal dependence with maximum during the periods of spring-summer snowmelt and summer-autumn rainfall floods. A noticeable non-linearity of the hydrological models' response to the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvine River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. The simulated trends are close to

  12. Modeling the Hydrological Response to Climate Change in an Arid Inland River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, C.; Zhang, A.; Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Liu, J.

    2014-12-01

    Located deep in the hinterlands of Eurasia, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) is an arid inland river basin in northwest China where the hydrologic regime responds sensitively to climate change. From the headwater region to terminal lakes, the HRB can be roughly divided into three sections, i.e., the upstream Qilian Mountains, the midstream oases and the downstream Gobi Desert. Runoff generated in the upstream mountainous terrains, dominated by climate variations, is the critical water resource for the whole river basin. With increasing intensification of climate change, there is an urgent need to understand future changes of water resources and water-related disasters to support regional water management. This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic processes in the upper HRB for the future period of 2021~2150. Downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from six General Circulation Models under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are adopted to drive a commonly used flow model, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for the upper HRB. The impacts of climate change on the total runoff and its components are quantified based on the future climate scenario analysis and the results of SWAT simulation. To understand how the climate change affects the availability and distribution of water resources in the middle and lower HRB where irrigated agriculture and ecosystem conservation compete for water resources, runoffs from the upper HRB are used as the boundary conditions for an integrated groundwater-surface water model based on the USGS GSFLOW for the middle and lower HRB. The integrated model assimilated multiple types of data including groundwater levels at monitoring wells, streamflow at gaging stations, and evapotranspiration (ET) derived from remote sensing data. The calibrated model was able to adequately reproduce the observed hydrological variables. The integrated model was then used to assess the potential response of the

  13. Use of System Identification Techniques to Explore the Hydrological Cycle Response to Perturbations in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravitz, B.; MacMartin, D. G.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.

    2015-12-01

    Identifying the influence of radiative forcing on hydrological cycle changes in climate models can be challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios, particularly for regional changes. One method of improving the signal-to-noise ratio, even for short simulations, is to use techniques from engineering, broadly known as system identification. Through this method, forcing (or any other chosen field) in multiple regions in a climate model is perturbed simultaneously by using mutually uncorrelated signals with a chosen frequency content, depending upon the climate behavior one wishes to reveal. The result is the sensitivity of a particular climate field (e.g., temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover) to changes in any perturbed region. We demonstrate this technique in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We perturbed surface air temperatures in 22 regions by up to 1°C. The amount of temperature perturbation was changed every day corresponding to a predetermined sequence of random numbers between -1 and 1, filtered to contain particular frequency content. The matrix of sequences was then orthogonalized such that all individual sequences were mutually uncorrelated. We performed CESM simulations with both fixed sea surface temperatures and a fully coupled ocean. We discuss the various patterns of climate response in several fields relevant to the hydrological cycle, including precipitation and surface latent heat fluxes. We also discuss the potential limits of this technique in terms of the spatial and temporal scales over which it would be appropriate to use.

  14. The hydrological response of the Ourthe catchment to climate change as modelled by the HBV model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. L. A. Driessen

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The Meuse is an important river in western Europe, and almost exclusively rain-fed. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics due to climate change, therefore, are expected to have a considerable effect on the hydrological regime of the river Meuse. We focus on an important tributary of the Meuse, the Ourthe, measuring about 1600 km2. The well-known hydrological model HBV is forced with three high-resolution (0.088° regional climate scenarios, each based on one of three different IPCC CO2 emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. To represent the current climate, a reference model run at the same resolution is used. Prior to running the hydrological model, the biases in the climate model output are investigated and corrected for. Different approaches to correct the distributed climate model output using single-site observations are compared. Correcting the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is found to give the best results, but still large differences exist between observations and simulations. The bias corrected data are then used to force HBV. Results indicate a small increase in overall discharge for especially the B1 scenario during the beginning of the 21st century. Towards the end of the century, all scenarios show a decrease in summer discharge, partially because of the diminished buffering effect by the snow pack, and an increased discharge in winter. It should be stressed, however, that we used results from only one GCM (the only one available at such a high resolution. It would be interesting to repeat the analysis with multiple models.

  15. How important is heterogeneous parameter distribution in capturing the catchment response through hydrologic modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devak, Manjula; Dhanya, Ct

    2017-04-01

    The scrupulous selection of critical spatial and temporal resolution and the evaluation of optimum values for various model parameters are essential aspects in any hydrological modelling study. The accurate assessment of various model parameters is vitally important for the detailed and complete representation of the various physical processes illustrating land-atmosphere interaction. Studies in the past have taken up various auto-calibration and parameter transferability schemes to address these; but the heterogeneity of calibration parameters across grids is greatly ignored often. In many studies, heterogeneity is often compromised through the usual interpolation approaches adopted across grids. In the present study, we focus to analyze the response of a catchment by adopting a heterogeneous and homogeneous parameter distribution in the hydrological model. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L) model, which offers sub-grid variability in soil moisture storage capacity and vegetation classes, is used for this comparison. Nine model parameters are selected for calibrating the VIC-3L model, namely variable infiltration curve parameter (infilt), maximum velocity of base flow for each grid cells (DSmax), fraction of DSmax where non-linear base flow begins (DS, fraction of maximum soil moisture where non-linear base flow occurs (WS), depth of 2nd soil layer (D2), depth of 3rd soil layer (D3), exponent used in baseflow curve (c), advection coefficient (C) and diffusion coefficient (D). Latin-Hypercube sampling is adopted to sample these nine parameters. In homogenous approach, the traditional way of constant soil parameter distribution (HoSCP) is adopted to prepare the parameter set. While, in heterogeneous approach, grid-to-grid variability is ensured by constructing a Heterogeneous Soil Calibration Parameter (HeSCP) set through systematic sampling of already sampled set. The sampling size is made equal to the number of grids

  16. Hydrological modelling in forested systems

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    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological p...

  17. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...... hydrological and tested by assimilating synthetic hydraulic head observations in a catchment in Denmark. Assimilation led to a substantial reduction of model prediction error, and better model forecasts. Also, a new assimilation scheme is developed to downscale and bias-correct coarse satellite derived soil...

  18. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  19. Linking hydrologic and bedload transport models to simulate fluvial response to changing precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickert, A. D.; Ng, G. H. C.; Tofelde, S.; Savi, S.; Schildgen, T. F.; Alonso, R. N.; Strecker, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in precipitation can drive river aggradation or incision through their influence on both hillslope processes, which supply sediment to the channel, and sediment transport capacity, which moves sediment downstream. Whether a particular change in precipitation intensity and/or duration will result in aggradation or incision is difficult to predict due to these competing effects. In particular, fluvial response to climate change is sensitive to (1) thresholds and nonlinearities involved in sediment production and sediment transport, (2) how different modes of sediment production affect the grain size of the sediment provided to the channel, and (3) impacts of drainage basin geometry on sediment storage time and locations of rapid sediment production and/or transport. A better mechanistic understanding of the relationship between rainfall and river bed elevation changes will help us to understand modern river channel response to climate change and decipher the causes for fluvial terrace formation. Here we couple a hydrologic model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), with a model of sediment transport through a fluvial network, sedFlow, to predict patterns of bed elevation change. We first perform schematic example simulations on an idealized synthetic landscape with a single river channel to show how simple fluvial systems can respond to changes in rainfall. We then expand these numerical tests to full fluvial networks, in which the segments of the tributary network propagate signals of aggradation and incision, leading to a more complex response that embodies the interference between magnitudes and time-scales of sediment transfer in the tributary links. We showcase the possible complexity of the fluvial response with an example from the Quebrada del Toro of NW Argentina, which is currently experiencing rapid and spatially-variable aggradation and incision, possibly in response to an increase in extreme rainfall events in the east-central Andes.

  20. Impact of precipitation spatial resolution on the hydrological response of an integrated distributed water resources model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fu, Suhua; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    was analyzed in the Alergaarde catchment in Denmark. Six different precipitation spatial resolutions were used as inputs to a physically based, distributed hydrological model, the MIKE SHE model. The results showed that the resolution of precipitation input had no apparent effect on annual water balance...

  1. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake as a function of changing land use and land cover

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bazigha Badar; Shakil A Romshoo; M A Khan

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological processes in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modeling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment have significantly altered the land system, impairing, \\texttit {inter-alia}, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was to help a better understanding of the LULC change, its driving forces and the overall impact on the hydrological response patterns. Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the LULC conditions. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in the study area and increase in impervious and bare surface cover due to anthropogenic interventions are the primary reasons for the increased runoff, erosion and sediment discharges in the Dal lake catchment. This study concludes that LULC change in the catchment is a major concern that has disrupted the ecological stability and functioning of the Dal lake ecosystem.

  2. Solicited abstract: Global hydrological modeling and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chong-Yu

    2010-05-01

    The origins of rainfall-runoff modeling in the broad sense can be found in the middle of the 19th century arising in response to three types of engineering problems: (1) urban sewer design, (2) land reclamation drainage systems design, and (3) reservoir spillway design. Since then numerous empirical, conceptual and physically-based models are developed including event based models using unit hydrograph concept, Nash's linear reservoir models, HBV model, TOPMODEL, SHE model, etc. From the late 1980s, the evolution of global and continental-scale hydrology has placed new demands on hydrologic modellers. The macro-scale hydrological (global and regional scale) models were developed on the basis of the following motivations (Arenll, 1999). First, for a variety of operational and planning purposes, water resource managers responsible for large regions need to estimate the spatial variability of resources over large areas, at a spatial resolution finer than can be provided by observed data alone. Second, hydrologists and water managers are interested in the effects of land-use and climate variability and change over a large geographic domain. Third, there is an increasing need of using hydrologic models as a base to estimate point and non-point sources of pollution loading to streams. Fourth, hydrologists and atmospheric modellers have perceived weaknesses in the representation of hydrological processes in regional and global climate models, and developed global hydrological models to overcome the weaknesses of global climate models. Considerable progress in the development and application of global hydrological models has been achieved to date, however, large uncertainties still exist considering the model structure including large scale flow routing, parameterization, input data, etc. This presentation will focus on the global hydrological models, and the discussion includes (1) types of global hydrological models, (2) procedure of global hydrological model development

  3. Comparisons of observed and modeled elastic responses to hydrological loading in the Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, D. M.; Calmant, S.; Perosanz, F.; Xavier, L.; Rotunno Filho, O. C.; Seyler, F.; Monteiro, A. C.

    2016-09-01

    In large hydrological basins, water mass loading can produce significant crustal deformation. We compare the monthly vertical component of 18 GPS sites located in the Amazon basin, with the deflection models derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations on the one hand and derived from HYDL, a global hydrological model, on the other hand. The GPS data set includes the largest deflections by hydrological loading ever recorded at two stations located in the center of the basin. The main result of the study is that the GRACE solution produced by GRGS (Groupe de Recherche en Géodesie Spatiale, Toulouse, France) produces the best agreement with the Global Navigation Satellite Systems series with a correlation coefficient up to 0.9 in the center of the basin, although 70% at best of the RMS variation in the GPS series is accounted for.

  4. SEHR-ECHO v1.0: a Spatially-Explicit Hydrologic Response model for ecohydrologic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina; Nicótina, Ludovico; Da Ronco, Pierfrancesco; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    We present here the SEHR-ECHO model, which stands for Spatially Explicit Hydrologic Response (SEHR) model developed at the Laboratory of Ecohydrology (ECHO) of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. The model is being developed for the spatially-explicit simulation of streamflow and transport processes at the catchment scale. The key concept of the model is the formulation of water transport by geomorphologic travel time distributions: the mobilization of water (and possibly dissolved solutes) is simulated at the subcatchment scale and the resulting responses are convolved with the travel paths distribution within the river network to obtain the hydrologic response at the catchment outlet. The Matlab source code of the current version for alpine streamflow simulation is already freely available. A truly free open source version using Python will become available in the future.

  5. Evaluation of digital elevation models for delineation of hydrological response units in a Himalayan watershed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saran, S.; Sterk, G.; Peters, P.D.; Dadhwal, V.K.

    2010-01-01

    This study reports results from evaluation of the quality of digital elevation model (DEM) from four sources viz. topographic map (1: 50,000), Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) (90 m), optical stereo pair from ASTER (15 m) and CARTOSAT (2.5 m) and their use in derivation of hydrological respo

  6. Evaluation of digital elevation models for delineation of hydrological response units in a Himalayan watershed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saran, S.; Sterk, G.; Peters, P.; Dadhwal, V.K.

    2010-01-01

    This study reports results from evaluation of the quality of digital elevation model (DEM) from four sources viz. topographic map (1:50,000), Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) (90 m), optical stereo pair from ASTER (15 m) and CARTOSAT (2.5 m) and their use in derivation of hydrological respon

  7. Retrospect and prospect of watershed hydrological model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    B.CHEN; Z.F.YANG; 等

    2001-01-01

    A brief review is presented of the development of watershed hydrological models,COnventional Hydrological Model,Grey Hydrological Model,Digital Hydrological Model and Intelligent Hydrological Model are analyzed.The Frameworks of Fuzzy Cognitive Hydrological Model and Integrated Digital Watershed Hydrological Model are presented.

  8. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  9. Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

    2012-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

  10. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2009-01-01

    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  11. Effects of Energy Development on Hydrologic Response: a Multi-Scale Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vithanage, J.; Miller, S. N.; Berendsen, M.; Caffrey, P. A.; Bellis, J.; Schuler, R.

    2013-12-01

    Potential impacts of energy development on surface hydrology in western Wyoming were assessed using spatially explicit hydrological models. Currently there are proposals to develop over 800 new oil and gas wells in the 218,000 acre-sized LaBarge development area that abuts the Wyoming Range and contributes runoff to the Upper Green River (approximately 1 well per 2 square miles). The intensity of development raises questions relating to impacts on the hydrological cycle, water quality, erosion and sedimentation. We developed landscape management scenarios relating to current disturbance and proposed actions put forth by the energy operators to provide inputs to spatially explicit hydrologic models. Differences between the scenarios were derived to quantify the changes and analyse the impacts to the project area. To perform this research, the Automated Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA) was enhanced by adding different management practices suitable for the region, including the reclamation of disturbed lands over time. The AGWA interface was used to parameterize and execute two hydrologic models: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2). We used freely available data including SSURGO soils, Multi-Resolution Landscape Consortium (MRLC) land cover, and 10m resolution terrain data to derive suitable initial parameters for the models. The SWAT model was manually calibrated using an innovative method at the monthly level; observed daily rainfall and temperature inputs were used as a function of elevation considering the local climate effects. Higher temporal calibration was not possible due to a lack of adequate climate and runoff data. The Nash Sutcliff efficiencies of two calibrated watersheds at the monthly scale exceeded 0.95. Results of the AGWA/SWAT simulations indicate a range of sensitivity to disturbance due to heterogeneous soil and terrain characteristics over a simulated time period of 10 years. The KINEROS

  12. Hydrological response to Black Carbon deposition in seasonally snow covered catchments in Norway using two different atmospheric transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matt, F.; Burkhart, J. F.; Pietikäinen, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Black Carbon (BC) has been shown to significantly impact snow melt through lowering the albedo of snow and increasing the absorption rate of short wave radiation. Yet few studies have investigated the effect of the enhanced melt on hydrological variability. BC sources for Norway are rather remote and deposition rates low. However, once deposited on snow even low concentrations of BC can have a detectable effect on the snow melt. Variations in snow melt have a direct impact on the snow cover duration and the timing and magnitude of peak outflow. In this study, we use two different atmospheric transport models (the Lagrangian transport and dispersion model FELXPART and the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM) and GAINS emissions to simulate deposition rates over Norway and Statkraft's Hydrologic Forecasting Toolbox (ShyFT) to simulate the impact of BC deposition on the seasonal snow melt. The Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model coupled to the snow routine of the hydrological model is used to determine the albedo of the snow as a function of the BC concentration in two snow layers. To investigate the impact range of BC on the seasonal snow melt, we simulate the catchment hydrology of catchments in south-east, south-west and northern Norway under the impact of deposition rates from both transport models, respectively. Comparing the deposition rates from the two transport models, we observe large differences in the seasonal cycle which in turn results in a significantly different response in the snow melt. Furthermore, we investigate the overall impact of BC deposition on the snow melt and duration on a catchment scale for both transport models.

  13. The hydrological response to precipitations of a layered shallow sloping deposit: physical experiments and mathematical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiano, Emilia; Greco, Roberto; Guida, Andrea; Olivares, Lucio; Picarelli, Luciano

    2016-04-01

    shallow landslides are sometimes triggered by intense and long-lasting precipitations. Several studies have already pointed out that layering may play a crucial role in the development of the infiltration process, as the coarse-grained pumice layers may behave as capillary barriers, leading to the formation of perched saturated zones. The hydrological behavior of such kind of layered slopes is investigated by means of small-scale infiltration experiments carried out in an instrumented flume in the laboratory. The interpretation of the experimental results is made with the help of a mathematical model of 2-D Richards equation, which allows shedding some light in the hydraulic properties of the pumices, which are hardly measurable with standard laboratory techniques. The obtained results show how, depending on initial moisture conditions, slope inclination angle and applied rainfall intensity, the response of the slope may be very different, and that the formation of a capillary barrier is not always observed.

  14. Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

  15. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    to imperfect model forecasts. It remains a crucial challenge to account for system uncertainty, so as to provide model outputs accompanied by a quantified confidence interval. Properly characterizing and reducing uncertainty opens-up the opportunity for risk-based decision-making and more effective emergency...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...

  16. PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

    1980-04-01

    A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

  17. Hydrologic Modeling of Boreal Forest Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    1995-01-01

    This study focused on the hydrologic response, including vegetation water use, of two test regions within the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) region in the Canadian boreal forest, one north of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, and the other near Thompson, Manitoba. Fluxes of moisture and heat were studied using a spatially distributed hydrology soil-vegetation-model (DHSVM).

  18. Complexity regularized hydrological model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Bastidas, L.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a recently proposed measure of hydrological model complexity in a model selection exercise. It demonstrates that a robust hydrological model is selected by penalizing model complexity while maximizing a model performance measure. This especially holds when limited data is available.

  19. Complexity regularized hydrological model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Bastidas, L.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a recently proposed measure of hydrological model complexity in a model selection exercise. It demonstrates that a robust hydrological model is selected by penalizing model complexity while maximizing a model performance measure. This especially holds when limited data is available.

  20. Assessing the changes of return periods of floods and droughts in response to climate change using a hydrologic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, H.

    2015-12-01

    When accessing the impacts of climate change on water resources, it is important to estimate changes in the frequencies and magnitudes of projected floods and droughts in response to climate change, considering that most disasters result from these hydrological extremes. The objective of this study is to estimate the changes of return periods of floods and droughts based on projected future streamflows in the Illinois River Watershed according to various climate change models. Future streamflows are simulated by combining data from 59 climate model scenarios with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. Subsequently, a Gumbel distribution (Extreme Value Type I) is fitted to the annual maximum simulated streamflow to derive the number of return periods of future hydrological extremes. The annual minimum 7-day average streamflow has been adopted for drought analysis. A Weibull distribution (Extreme Value Type Ш) is used to analyze the return periods of low flows. The 10-year and 100-year return periods of floods and droughts from 2020 to 2049 and from 2070 to 2099 are analyzed in comparison to streamflows from 1975 to 2004. Results indicate that average streamflow predicted from 33 (2020-2049) and 29 (2070-2099) climate scenarios are expected to decrease. The majority of the 10-year and 100-year return periods of floods in 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 increase; however 10-year and 100-year return periods for droughts tend to decrease.

  1. Watershed sensitivity and hydrologic response to high-resolution climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troin, M.; Caya, D.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) are fundamental research tools to assess climate change impacts on water resources. Regional climate models (RCMs) are complementary to GCMs. The added benefit of RCMs for hydrological applications is still not well understood because watersheds respond differently to RCM experiments. It is expected that the new generation of RCMs improve the representation of climate processes making it more attractive for impact studies. Given the cost of RCMs, it is ascertain to identify whether high-resolution RCMs allow offering more details than what is simulated in GCMs or RCMs with coarser resolution to address impacts on water resources. This study aims to assess the added value of RCM with emphasis on using high-resolution climate models. More specifically is how the hydrological cycle is represented when the resolution in climate models is increased (45 vs 200km; 15 vs 45km). We used simulations from the Canadian RCM (CRCM) driven by reanalyses integrated on high-resolution domains (45 and 15km) and CRCM driven by multiple members of two GCMs (the Canadian CGCM3; the German ECHAM5) with a horizontal resolution of 45 km. CRCM data and data from their host GCMs are compared to observation over 1971-2000. Precipitation and temperature from CRCM and GCMs' simulations are inputted into the hydrological SWAT model to simulate streamflow in watersheds for the historical period. The selected watersheds are two basins in Quebec (QC) and one basin in British Columbia (BC), Canada. CRCM-45km driven by GCMs performs well in representing precipitation but shows a cold bias of 3.3°C. Such bias in temperature is more significant for the BC basin (4.5°C) due to the Rocky Mountains. For the CRCM-45km/GCM combination (CGCM3 or ECHAM5), comparable skills in reproducing the observed climate are identified even though CGCM3 analyzed alone provides more accurate indication of climatology in the basins than ECHAM5. When we compared to GCMs results, CRCM-45km

  2. Modeling hydrologic responses to deforestation/forestation and climate change at multiple scales in the Southern US and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Steven McNulty; Jianbiao Lu; James Vose; Devendra Amayta; Guoyi Zhou; Zhiqiang Zhang

    2006-01-01

    Watershed management and restoration practices require a clear understanding of the basic eco-hydrologic processes and ecosystem responses to disturbances at multiple scales (Bruijnzeel, 2004; Scott et al., 2005). Worldwide century-long forest hydrologic research has documented that deforestation and forestation (i.e. reforestation and afforestation) can have variable...

  3. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...... change (DC) approach. These climate model projections were then used to force hydrological simulations under climate change for the island Sjælland in Denmark to analyse the contribution of different climate models and bias correction methods to overall uncertainty in the hydrological change modelling...

  4. Data assimilation in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, Jean-Philippe

    Data assimilation is an invaluable tool in hydrological modelling as it allows to efficiently combine scarce data with a numerical model to obtain improved model predictions. In addition, data assimilation also provides an uncertainty analysis of the predictions made by the hydrological model...... with model non-linearities and biased errors. A literature review analyzes the most popular techniques and their application in hydrological modelling. Since bias is an important problem in groundwater modelling, two bias aware Kalman filters have been implemented and compared using an artificial test case...

  5. Hydrological modeling in forested systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    H.E. Golden; G.R. Evenson; S. Tian; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun

    2015-01-01

    Characterizing and quantifying interactions among components of the forest hydrological cycle is complex and usually requires a combination of field monitoring and modelling approaches (Weiler and McDonnell, 2004; National Research Council, 2008). Models are important tools for testing hypotheses, understanding hydrological processes and synthesizing experimental data...

  6. Multi-response calibration of a conceptual hydrological model in the semiarid catchment of Wadi al Arab, Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödiger, T.; Geyer, S.; Mallast, U.; Merz, R.; Krause, P.; Fischer, C.; Siebert, C.

    2014-02-01

    A key factor for sustainable management of groundwater systems is the accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Hydrological models are common tools for such estimations and widely used. As such models need to be calibrated against measured values, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. We present a nested multi-response calibration approach for a semi-distributed hydrological model in the semi-arid catchment of Wadi al Arab in Jordan, with sparsely available runoff data. The basic idea of the calibration approach is to use diverse observations in a nested strategy, in which sub-parts of the model are calibrated to various observation data types in a consecutive manner. First, the available different data sources have to be screened for information content of processes, e.g. if data sources contain information on mean values, spatial or temporal variability etc. for the entire catchment or only sub-catchments. In a second step, the information content has to be mapped to relevant model components, which represent these processes. Then the data source is used to calibrate the respective subset of model parameters, while the remaining model parameters remain unchanged. This mapping is repeated for other available data sources. In that study the gauged spring discharge (GSD) method, flash flood observations and data from the chloride mass balance (CMB) are used to derive plausible parameter ranges for the conceptual hydrological model J2000g. The water table fluctuation (WTF) method is used to validate the model. Results from modelling using a priori parameter values from literature as a benchmark are compared. The estimated recharge rates of the calibrated model deviate less than ±10% from the estimates derived from WTF method. Larger differences are visible in the years with high uncertainties in rainfall input data. The performance of the calibrated model during validation produces better results than applying the model with only a priori parameter

  7. Hydrological Responses of Andean Lakes and Tropical Floodplains to Climate Variability and Human Intervention: an Integrative Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, I. C.; González Morales, C.; Serna López, J. P.; Duque, C. L.; Canon Barriga, J. E.; Dominguez, F.

    2013-12-01

    Andean water bodies in tropical regions are significantly influenced by fluctuations associated with climatic and anthropogenic drivers, which implies long term changes in mountain snow peaks, land covers and ecosystems, among others. Our work aims at providing an integrative framework to realistically assess the possible future of natural water bodies with different degrees of human intervention. We are studying in particular the evolution of three water bodies in Colombia: two Andean lakes and a floodplain wetland. These natural reservoirs represent the accumulated effect of hydrological processes in their respective basins, which exhibit different patterns of climate variability and distinct human intervention and environmental histories. Modelling the hydrological responses of these local water bodies to climate variability and human intervention require an understanding of the strong linkage between geophysical and social factors. From the geophysical perspective, the challenge is how to downscale global climate projections in the local context: complex orography and relative lack of data. To overcome this challenge we combine the correlational and physically based analysis of several sources of spatially distributed biophysical and meteorological information to accurately determine aspects such as moisture sources and sinks and past, present and future local precipitation and temperature regimes. From the social perspective, the challenge is how to adequately represent and incorporate into the models the likely response of social agents whose water-related interests are diverse and usually conflictive. To deal with the complexity of these systems we develop interaction matrices, which are useful tools to holistically discuss and represent each environment as a complex system. Our goal is to assess partially the uncertainties of the hydrological balances in these intervened water bodies we establish climate/social scenarios, using hybrid models that combine

  8. Response to comment by Keith Beven on "Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; ter Braak, C.J.F.; Gupta, H.V.; Robinson, B.A.

    2009-01-01

    This is our reply to the comment by Beven (2008) on our paper ‘‘Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?’’ recently published in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

  9. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

  10. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa

    2007-01-01

    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains an introduct......In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...

  11. Modeling the glacio-hydrological response of a Himalayan watershed to climate change using a physically-oriented distributed model: sources of model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.; Immerzeel, W. W.

    2012-12-01

    In this study, we apply the physically-oriented, fully distributed glacio-hydrological model TOPKAPI-ETH to a large glacierized catchment in the Karakoram, in the northwestern part of the Greater Himalaya. The study region comprises some of the largest alpine valley-glaciers of the world. We use TOPKAPI-ETH to analyze the effect of snow- and glacier changes on water availability in the region. Stochastic downscaling of available GCMs is used to derive predictions of water resources under future climate. While recent studies report rapid declines in glacier area from the Greater Himalaya and most of mainland Asia, many central Karakoram glaciers began expanding in the late 1990s. In order to take into account the particular conditions which lead to this specific response to climate change, the focus of this study was on the reproduction of glacier dynamics, debris cover effects and snow redistribution by avalanches as well as on finding appropriate patterns for the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation. We use a novel sensitivity method to discuss the spatio-temporal variability in sources of model uncertainty with respect to modeled streamflow and glacier cover. Glacio-hydrological processes in high watersheds are difficult to quantify and study: low density of meteorological data, difficulties in terrain and complex topography are some of the common limitations researchers face when trying to understand the processes in remote mountainous areas. Our results show that data scarcity is restricting the applicability of a physically-oriented modeling approach, if model parameter values cannot be estimated based on measurements. However, the inclusion of the relevant processes for simulations of the hydrological response and the distributed nature of the model allow a detailed assessment of model uncertainty. We attribute to each model component and model parameter an "information content", which quantifies the (seasonally-dependent) contribution to

  12. Data assimilation in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, Jean-Philippe

    Data assimilation is an invaluable tool in hydrological modelling as it allows to efficiently combine scarce data with a numerical model to obtain improved model predictions. In addition, data assimilation also provides an uncertainty analysis of the predictions made by the hydrological model...... with model non-linearities and biased errors. A literature review analyzes the most popular techniques and their application in hydrological modelling. Since bias is an important problem in groundwater modelling, two bias aware Kalman filters have been implemented and compared using an artificial test case....... In this thesis, the Kalman filter is used for data assimilation with a focus on groundwater modelling. However the developed techniques are general and can be applied also in other modelling domains. Modelling involves conceptualization of the processes of Nature. Data assimilation provides a way to deal...

  13. Numerical modelling of hydrological slope response: GIS application to rainfall induced landslides forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivares, Lucio; Picarelli, Luciano; Savastano, Vincenzo; Damiano, Emilia; Greco, Roberto; Guida, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    A significant part of Italian mountainous areas are covered by pyroclastic deposits resting at slope angles higher than 40-50°. The stability of these steep slopes in loose or poorly cemented pyroclastic materials is essentially guaranteed by the positive effects of matrix suction on shear strength until an increase in saturation (and hence a decrease in suction) is induced by seepage initiated by different processes. The Cervinara flowslide (Campania, Italy) is a typical case where rainfall infiltration increased saturation and hence led to failure of shallow layered pyroclastic deposits. This case study is examined by means of a numerical model calibrated through back-analysis of flume tests, which link instability to rainwater infiltration. The complexity of infiltration process on unsaturated layered slope requires the set up of a numerical model. The model includes a 3D volume finite algorithm (I-MOD3D) developed in VBA application for ARCOBJECTTM/ARCGIS 9.2TM to automate the mesh-generation starting from a Digital Terrain Model allowing the analysis of slope response at catchment scale. Model calibration was carried out using either data from laboratory tests on natural soil samples or from infiltration tests on layered slope model. Model validation was carried out through back-analysis of in situ suction measurements using initial and boundary conditions derived from field monitoring. Comparison between the results of slope model infiltration tests, numerical simulations and in situ measurements showed that the developed numerical model represents reliable tool for predicting slope response to rainfall infiltration for shallow layered pyroclastic deposits.

  14. The Central Valley Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faunt, C.; Belitz, K.; Hanson, R. T.

    2009-12-01

    Historically, California’s Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California’s expanding urban population. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, subsidence, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS made a detailed assessment of the Central Valley aquifer system that includes the present status of water resources and how these resources have changed over time. The principal product of this assessment is a tool, referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), that simulates surface-water flows, groundwater flows, and land subsidence in response to stresses from human uses and from climate variability throughout the entire Central Valley. The CVHM utilizes MODFLOW combined with a new tool called “Farm Process” to simulate groundwater and surface-water flow, irrigated agriculture, land subsidence, and other key processes in the Central Valley on a monthly basis. This model was discretized horizontally into 20,000 1-mi2 cells and vertically into 10 layers ranging in thickness from 50 feet at the land surface to 750 feet at depth. A texture model constructed by using data from more than 8,500 drillers’ logs was used to estimate hydraulic properties. Unmetered pumpage and surface-water deliveries for 21 water-balance regions were simulated with the Farm Process. Model results indicate that human activities, predominately surface-water deliveries and groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture, have dramatically influenced the hydrology of the Central Valley. These human activities have increased flow though the aquifer system by about a factor of six compared to pre-development conditions. The simulated hydrology reflects spatial

  15. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    methodology for basin discharge and groundwater heads. The ensemble of 11 climate models varied in strength, significance, and sometimes in direction of the climate change signal. The more complex daily DBS correction methods were more accurate at transferring precipitation changes in mean as well...... as the variance, and improving the characterisation of day to day variation as well as heavy events. However, the most highly parameterised of the DBS methods were less robust under climate change conditions. The spatial characteristics of groundwater head and stream discharge were best represented by DBS methods...... applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current...

  16. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  17. The dielectric calibration of capacitance probes for soil hydrology using an oscillation frequency response model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Robinson

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Capacitance probes are a fast, safe and relatively inexpensive means of measuring the relative permittivity of soils, which can then be used to estimate soil water content. Initial experiments with capacitance probes used empirical calibrations between the frequency response of the instrument and soil water content. This has the disadvantage that the calibrations are instrument-dependent. A twofold calibration strategy is described in this paper; the instrument frequency is turned into relative permittivity (dielectric constant which can then be calibrated against soil water content. This approach offers the advantages of making the second calibration, from soil permittivity to soil water content. instrument-independent and allows comparison with other dielectric methods, such as time domain reflectometry. A physically based model, used to calibrate capacitance probes in terms of relative permittivity (εr is presented. The model, which was developed from circuit analysis, predicts, successfully, the frequency response of the instrument in liquids with different relative permittivities, using only measurements in air and water. lt was used successfully to calibrate 10 prototype surface capacitance insertion probes (SCIPS and a depth capacitance probe. The findings demonstrate that the geometric properties of the instrument electrodes were an important parameter in the model, the value of which could be fixed through measurement. The relationship between apparent soil permittivity and volumetric water content has been the subject of much research in the last 30 years. Two lines of investigation have developed, time domain reflectometry (TDR and capacitance. Both methods claim to measure relative permittivity and should therefore be comparable. This paper demonstrates that the IH capacitance probe overestimates relative permittivity as the ionic conductivity of the medium increases. Electrically conducting ionic solutions were used to test the

  18. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.

    2016-04-01

    Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography

  19. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian;

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  20. Hillslope hydrological modeling : the role of bedrock geometry and hillslope-stream interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shahedi, K.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: Hillslope hydrology, hydrological modeling, bedrock geometry, boundary condition, numerical solution. This thesis focuses on hillslope subsurface flow as a dominant control on the hydrological processes defining the catchment response to rainfall. Due to the difficulties associated with

  1. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  2. Probabilistic flood forecasting for Rapid Response Catchments using a countrywide distributed hydrological model: experience from the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.; Robson, Alice J.; Mattingley, Paul S.

    2014-05-01

    Across Britain, floods in rapidly responding catchments are a major concern and regularly cause significant damage (e.g. Boscastle 2004, Morpeth 2008, Cornwall 2010 and Comrie 2012). Typically these catchments have a small area and are characterised by steep slopes and/or significant suburban/urban land-cover. The meteorological drivers can be of convective origin or frontal with locally intense features (e.g. embedded convection or orographic enhancement); saturated catchments can amplify the flood response. Both rainfall and flood forecasting for Rapid Response Catchments (RRCs)are very challenging due to the often small-scale nature of the intense rainfall which is of most concern, the small catchment areas, and the short catchment response times. Over the last 3 to 4 years, new countrywide Flood Forecasting Systems based on the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological (rainfall-runoff and routing) model have been implemented across Britain for use by the Flood Forecasting Centre and Scottish Flood Forecasting Service. This has achieved a step-change in operational capability with forecasts of flooding several days ahead "everywhere" on a 1 km grid now possible. The modelling and forecasting approach underpins countrywide Flood Guidance Statements out to 5 days which are used by emergency response organisations for planning and preparedness. The initial focus of these systems has been to provide a countrywide overview of flood risk. However, recent research has explored the potential of the G2G approach to support more frequent and detailed alerts relevant to flood warning in RRCs. Integral to this activity is the use of emerging high-resolution (~1.5km) rainfall forecast products, in deterministic and ensemble form. High spatial resolutions are required to capture some of the small-scale processes and intense rainfall features such as orographic enhancement and convective storm evolution. Even though a deterministic high-resolution numerical weather

  3. Climate sensitivity runs and regional hydrologic modeling for predicting the response of the greater Florida Everglades ecosystem to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeysekera, Jayantha; Barnes, Jenifer; Nungesser, Martha

    2015-04-01

    It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.

  4. A rapid response database in support of post-fire hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary Ellen Miller; William J. Elliot

    2016-01-01

    Being prepared for an emergency is important. Every year wildfires threaten homes and lives, but danger persists even after the flames are extinguished. Post-fire flooding and erosion (Figure 1) can threaten lives, property, and natural resources. To respond to this threat, interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams assess potential erosion and flood...

  5. A coupled hydrologic and biogeochemical model for assessing watershed responses to climate and land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    This seminar for Oregon State University’s Water Resources Graduate Program will describe the use of a spatially-distributed ecohydrological model, VELMA, for quantifying how alternative land use and climate scenarios affect tradeoffs among important ecosystem services. Sp...

  6. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...... to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and recipitation between the two models are included...

  7. Hydrological modelling in forested systems | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological processes. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically 'forest hydrology models'; that is, physically based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle. Physically based models can be considered those that describe the conservation of mass, momentum and/or energy. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief overview of forest hydrology modeling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically “forest hydrology models”, i.e., physically-based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle.

  8. Hydrological model coupling with ANNs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamp, R. G.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2006-12-01

    Model coupling in general is necessary but complicated. Scientists develop and improve conceptual models to represent physical processes occurring in nature. The next step is to translate these concepts into a mathematical model and finally into a computer model. Problems may appear if the knowledge, encapsulated in a computer model and software program is needed for another purpose. In integrated water management this is often the case when connections between hydrological, hydraulic or ecological models are required. Coupling is difficult for many reasons, related to data formats, compatibility of scales, ability to modify source codes, etc. Hence, there is a need for an efficient and cost effective approach to model-coupling. One solution for model coupling is the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The ANN can be used as a fast and effective model simulator which can connect different models. In this paper ANNs are used to couple four different models: a rainfall runoff model, a river channel routing model, an estuarine salt intrusion model, and an ecological model. The coupling as such has proven to be feasible and efficient. However the salt intrusion model appeared difficult to model accurately in an ANN. The ANN has difficulty to represent both short term (tidal) and long term (hydrological) processes.

  9. Simulation of the impacts land use and land cover changes - LUCC on the hydrological response of the Ji-Parana Basin with MGB-INPE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrological response results from innumerous processes interacting at different spatial and temporal scales and with various intensities. Since the hydrological impacts of Land use and land cover change (LUCC) and climate variability (CV) are strongly dependent on soil water flow pathways, an adequate representation of the runoff generation mechanisms are crucial to assess the hydrological impacts of LUCC and CV on a basin scale. Model responses to LUCC depend on structure and parameterizations used in the model. There are two basic methodologies adopted to define the structure of the hydrological model: downward and upward approaches. Upward approach is more appropriate for identifying causal relationships, but their results are highly affected by assumptions used in the development of the model. Besides, model structure and parameters values definition are strongly affected by scale issues and their inter-relationships. Downward approach is more appropriate for studying the effects of LUCC, but casual relationships are more difficult to identify. MGB-INPE model was developed based on the Large Scale Basins Model of Brazilian Institute of Hydraulic Research (MGB-IPH). It uses the Xinanjiang Model approach for soil water capacity distribution at each cell combined with TopModel philosophy. Both methodologies follow a downward approach: the hydrologic response of the basin is associated with patterns of self-organization observed at the basin-scale. The model was applied in the Ji-Parana Basin (JPB), a 30.000-km2 basin in the SW Amazonia. The JPB is part of the Deforestation Arc of Amazonia in Brazil and it has lost more than 50 % of his forest cover since the 80's. Simulations were performed between 1982 and 2005 considering annual land use and land cover change. MGB-INPE model was able to represent the impact of LUCC in the runoff generation process and its dependence with basin topography. Simulation results agree with observational studies: LUCC impacts in fast

  10. Socio-hydrological flood models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Such phenomena cannot be represented by traditional flood risk approaches that are based on scenarios. Instead, dynamic models of the coupled human-flood interactions are needed. These types of models should include both social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, in order to adequately represent the feedbacks and processes that are of importance in human-flood systems. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management by exploring a wider range of possible futures, including unexpected phenomena, than is possible by creating and studying scenarios. New insights might come to light about the long term effects of certain measures on society and the natural system. Here we discuss a dynamic framework for flood risk and review the models that are presented in literature. We propose a way forward for socio-hydrological modelling of the human-flood system.

  11. Environmental Observatories and Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, R. P.; Duncan, J. M.

    2006-12-01

    During the past several years, the environmental sciences community has been attempting to design large- scale obsevatories that will transform the science. A watershed-based observatory has emerged as an effective landscape unit for a broad range of environmental sciences and engineering. For an effective observatory, modeling is a central requirement because models are precise statements of the hypothesized conceptual organization of watersheds and of the processes believed to be controlling hydrology of the watershed. Furthermore, models can serve to determine the value of existing data and the incremental value of any additional data to be collected. Given limited resources, such valuation is mandatory for an objective design of an observatory. Modeling is one part of a "digital watershed" that must be constructed for any observatory, a concept that has been developed by the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information Systems project. A digital watershed has three functions. First, it permits assembly of time series (such as stream discharge or precipitation measurements), static spatial coverages (such as topography), and dynamic fields (such as precipitation radar and other remotely sensed data). Second, based upon this common data description, a digital observatory permits multiple conceptualizations of the observatory to be created and to be stored. These conceptualizations could range from lumped box-and-arrow watershed models, to semi-distributed topographically based models, to three-dimensional finite element models. Finally, each conceptualization can lead to multiple models--that is, a set of equations that quantitatively describe hydrologic (or biogeochemical or geomorphologic) processes through libraries of tools that can be linked as workflow sequences. The advances in cyberinfrastructure that allow the storage of multiple conceptualizations and multiple model formulations of these conceptualizations promise to accelerate advances in environmental science both

  12. Numerical Modeling of Particle-Fluid Mixtures in a Subglacial Setting: Granular Deformation and Hydrological Flow Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damsgaard, A.; Egholm, D. L.; Piotrowski, J. A.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Larsen, N. K.

    2014-12-01

    The coupled mechanical response of ice, water and sediment may control the flow of warm-based glaciers residing on deformable sediment. This is most clearly expressed by the fast flowing ice streams in Greenland and Antarctica, where low levels of basal friction are thought to support the high flow rates. These ice streams are of particular interest since they are large constituents of the polar ice sheet mass balance. The study of these ice streams and their future impact on the ice sheets necessitates a deeper understanding of their basal dynamics, including the rheology of water-saturated sediment. We present the methodology and first results of a coupled numerical model for computational experiments on granular-fluid mixtures under dynamic conditions similar to those in subglacial settings. The granular phase is simulated on a per-particle basis by the soft body discrete element method. The fluid phase is handled as a continuum by solving the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The particle and fluid phases are coupled by mass conservation and momentum exchanges. The hydraulic diffusivity and permeability is compared to previous laboratory studies on tills. We demonstrate how the onset and halt of granular deformation is an efficient mechanism to create fluid pressure fluctuations due to local porosity changes. These pressure anomalies are driving transient hydraulic flows, and they influence directly the rheology of granular-fluid mixtures. Our results highlight the nonlinear nature of water saturated granular deformation, and demonstrate how the mechanical behaviour of granular materials may include both brittle and viscous components depending on the rates of deformation and the hydrological properties.

  13. Xanthos - A Global Hydrologic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xinya; Vernon, Christopher R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Link, Robert P.; Feng, Leyang; Liu, Yaling; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.

    2017-09-11

    Xanthos is a Python model designed to quantify and analyze global water availability historically and in the future at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and a monthly time step. Its performance and functionality was tested through real-world applications. It is open-source, extensible and accessible for researchers who work on long-term climate data for studies of global water supply, and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). This package integrates inherent global gridded data maps, I/O modules, hydrologic processes and diagnostics modules parameterized by a user-defined configuration file.

  14. Hybrid Modelling Approach to Prairie hydrology: Fusing Data-driven and Process-based Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekonnen, B.; Nazemi, A.; Elshorbagy, A.; Mazurek, K.; Putz, G.

    2012-04-01

    Modeling the hydrological response in prairie regions, characterized by flat and undulating terrain, and thus, large non-contributing areas, is a known challenge. The hydrological response (runoff) is the combination of the traditional runoff from the hydrologically contributing area and the occasional overflow from the non-contributing area. This study provides a unique opportunity to analyze the issue of fusing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in a hybrid structure to model the hydrological response in prairie regions. A hybrid SWAT-ANN model is proposed, where the SWAT component and the ANN module deal with the effective (contributing) area and the non-contributing area, respectively. The hybrid model is applied to the case study of Moose Jaw watershed, located in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. As an initial exploration, a comparison between ANN and SWAT models is established based on addressing the daily runoff (streamflow) prediction accuracy using multiple error measures. This is done to identify the merits and drawbacks of each modeling approach. It has been found out that the SWAT model has better performance during the low flow periods but with degraded efficiency during periods of high flows. The case is different for the ANN model as ANNs exhibit improved simulation during high flow periods but with biased estimates during low flow periods. The modelling results show that the new hybrid SWAT-ANN model is capable of exploiting the strengths of both SWAT and ANN models in an integrated framrwork. The new hybrid SWAT-ANN model simulates daily runoff quite satisfactorily with NSE measures of 0.80 and 0.83 during calibration and validation periods, respectively. Furthermore, an experimental assessment was performed to identify the effects of the ANN training method on the performance of the hybrid model as well as the parametric identifiability. Overall, the results obtained in this study suggest that the fusion

  15. 水文响应单元空间离散化及SWAT模型改进%Spatial discretization of hydrological response units and improved SWAT model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宁吉才; 刘高焕; 刘庆生; 谢传节

    2012-01-01

    水文响应单元(Hydrological Response Units,HRU)是SWAT模型模拟的基本单元,传统方法划分的水文响应单元在空间分布上不连续且难以确定其明确的空间位置,不能反映HRU间的相互作用和进行精确空间分析.利用GIS工具对土地利用和土壤类型数据进行概化处理,提出了HRU空间离散化的方法,实现了水文响应单元在空间上的准确定位.在此基础上,针对SWAT模型中同一子流域所有HRU采取相同延迟的弱点进行改进,并选择太湖地区西苕溪流域对改进的SWAT模型进行水文模拟验证.改进后,校正期港口站Nash效率系数ENS(Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency)从0.64提高到0.67,验证期ENS系数从0.70提高到0.76.研究表明:修正后的SWAT模型更能反映流域的水文特征,可以达到非常好的效果,考虑到HRU距离因素的径流延迟更为准确地刻画径流过程.实现HRU空间离散化将为模型改进和更小尺度的空间分析提供数据基础.%The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) is a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model. The basic computational unit in the SWAT is the hydrological response unit (HRU) that is usually determined by land uses, soil types, and slope and aspect of an area. Each HRU is assumed to have a homogeneous hydrological response. HRUs obtained with the traditional approaches for delineation of hydrologic response units are often spatially discontinuous and it is difficult to locate them in a catchment. The interaction among HRUs cannot be precisely described and analyzed. In this study, the land use and soil type data from a typical watershed in the Taihu Lake region are processed using the geographic information system ( GIS ) tools. A new approach for spatial discretization of hydro-logic response units is proposed and applied to the processed data. As the result, the location of each HRU in the watershed can be accurately identified. Accordingly, different values of the surface

  16. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  17. Monthly Water Balance Model Hydrology Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andy; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2016-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (MWBM) was driven with precipitation and temperature using a station-based dataset for current conditions (1950 to 2010) and selected statistically-downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) for current and future conditions (1950 to 2099) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using hydrologic response units from the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.5066/F7542KMD). Six MWBM output variables (actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (RO), streamflow (STRM), soil moisture storage (SOIL), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the two MWBM input variables (atmospheric temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT)) were summarized for hydrologic response units and aggregated at points of interest on a stream network. Results were then organized into the Monthly Water Balance Hydrology Futures database, an open-access database using netCDF format (http://cida-eros-mows1.er.usgs.gov/thredds/dodsC/nwb_pub/).  Methods used to calibrate and parameterize the MWBM are detailed in the Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)  paper "Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States" by Bock and others (2016).  See the discussion paper link in the "Related External Resources" section for access.  Supplemental data files related to the plots and data analysis in Bock and others (2016) can be found in the HESS-2015-325.zip folder in the "Attached Files" section.  Detailed information on the files and data can be found in the ReadMe.txt contained within the zipped folder. Recommended citation of discussion paper:Bock, A.R., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Markstrom, S.L., and Atkinson, R.D., 2016, Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 20, 2861-2876, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2861-2016, 2016

  18. Hydrological response to climate change in the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments: contribution of a physically based model (Wallonia, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bauwens

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Meuse is an important rain-fed river in North-Western Europe. Nine million people live in its catchment, split over five countries. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics due to climate change would have a significant impact on the Meuse River and its tributaries. In this study, we focused on the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two sub-catchments of the Meuse in Belgium, the Lesse and the Vesdre, placing the emphasis on the water-soil-plant continuum in order to highlight the effects of climate change on plant growth, and water uptake on the hydrology of two sub-catchments. These effects were studied using two climate scenarios and a physically based distributed model, which reflects the water-soil-plant continuum. Our results show that the vegetation will evapotranspirate between 10 and 17 % less at the end of the century because of water scarcity in summer, even if the root development is better under climate change conditions. In the low scenario, the mean minimal 7 days discharge value could decrease between 19 and 24 % for a two year return period, and between 20 and 35 % for a fifty year return period. It will lead to rare but severe drought in rivers, with potentially huge consequences on water quality.

  19. A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esralew, Rachel A.; Flint, Lorraine; Thorne, James H.; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Alan

    2016-07-01

    Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

  20. The relation between geometry, hydrology and stability of complex hillslopes examined using low-dimensional hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talebi, A.

    2008-01-01

    Key words: Hillslope geometry, Hillslope hydrology, Hillslope stability, Complex hillslopes, Modeling shallow landslides, HSB model, HSB-SM model. The hydrologic response of a hillslope to rainfall involves a complex, transient saturated-unsaturated interaction that usually leads to a water table

  1. The relation between geometry, hydrology and stability of complex hillslopes examined using low-dimensional hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talebi, A.

    2008-01-01

    Key words: Hillslope geometry, Hillslope hydrology, Hillslope stability, Complex hillslopes, Modeling shallow landslides, HSB model, HSB-SM model. The hydrologic response of a hillslope to rainfall involves a complex, transient saturated-unsaturated interaction that usually leads to a water table

  2. Efficient Use of Prior Information to Calibrate the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) Hydrology Model by Brian E. Skahill and Charles W. Downer PURPOSE: The purpose of this... Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. These new capabilities enable the incorporation of soft data, or prior information (i.e., extra observations which...traditional hydrologic simulation models (viz., lumped and semidistributed model structures). Such models have the potential to predict with greater

  3. Isotopic and hydrologic responses of small, closed lakes to climate variability: Comparison of measured and modeled lake level and sediment core oxygen isotope records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Nelson, Daniel B.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Finney, Bruce P.; Bain, Daniel J.; Rosenmeier, Michael F.

    2013-03-01

    Simulations conducted using a coupled lake-catchment isotope mass balance model forced with continuous precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity data successfully reproduce (within uncertainty limits) long-term (i.e., multidecadal) trends in reconstructed lake surface elevations and sediment core oxygen isotope (δ18O) values at Castor Lake and Scanlon Lake, north-central Washington. Error inherent in sediment core dating methods and uncertainty in climate data contribute to differences in model reconstructed and measured short-term (i.e., sub-decadal) sediment (i.e., endogenic and/or biogenic carbonate) δ18O values, suggesting that model isotopic performance over sub-decadal time periods cannot be successfully investigated without better constrained climate data and sediment core chronologies. Model reconstructions of past lake surface elevations are consistent with estimates obtained from aerial photography. Simulation results suggest that precipitation is the strongest control on lake isotopic and hydrologic dynamics, with secondary influence by temperature and relative humidity. This model validation exercise demonstrates that lake-catchment oxygen isotope mass balance models forced with instrumental climate data can reproduce lake hydrologic and isotopic variability over multidecadal (or longer) timescales, and therefore, that such models could potentially be used for quantitative investigations of paleo-lake responses to hydroclimatic change.

  4. Estimation of hydrological response of a small Mediterranean watershed to fire by data analysis and a modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebedeva, L.; Semenova, O.; Folton, N.

    2014-09-01

    Data analysis and amodelling approach were used to detect the changes in hydrological regime in the Rimbaud watershed (France) after the fire in 1990. It was revealed that the increase of peak discharges was only observed during three years after the fire in the wet period of the year, at an hourly time scale. The Hydrograph model was applied for continuous runoff simulations at an hourly time step for the period 1967-2004. The parameters assessed for pre-fire conditions and used without change for the post-fire period satisfactorily fit the whole period of simulations with mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.52. The set of model parameters representing the post-fire conditions of changing environment was developed. Based on newly estimated parameters, the efficiency of simulations of selected outstanding flood peaks was improved. However, overall model representation for the post-fire period (1990-1992) has declined. It is concluded that discernible fire impact is only localized on separate floods events and that it has a nonlinear character.

  5. Remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, J.; Estes, J. E.; Simonett, D. S.; Davis, R.; Frew, J.; Marks, D.; Schiffman, K.; Souza, M.; Witebsky, E.

    1977-01-01

    An energy balance snowmelt model for rugged terrain was devised and coupled to a flow model. A literature review of remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling was included along with a software development outline.

  6. CADDIS Volume 2. Sources, Stressors and Responses: Urbanization - Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    hydrologic (or flow) changes associated with urbanization, baseflow changes associated with urbanization, water withdrawals and interbasin transfers associated with urbanization, biotic responses to hydrologic (or flow) changes associated with urbanization

  7. Application of hydrologic forecast model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Xu; Hengxin, Xue; Zhiguo, Chen

    2012-01-01

    In order to overcome the shortcoming of the solution may be trapped into the local minimization in the traditional TSK (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang) fuzzy inference training, this paper attempts to consider the TSK fuzzy system modeling approach based on the visual system principle and the Weber law. This approach not only utilizes the strong capability of identifying objects of human eyes, but also considers the distribution structure of the training data set in parameter regulation. In order to overcome the shortcoming of it adopting the gradient learning algorithm with slow convergence rate, a novel visual TSK fuzzy system model based on evolutional learning is proposed by introducing the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The main advantage of this method lies in its very good optimization, very strong noise immunity and very good interpretability. The new method is applied to long-term hydrological forecasting examples. The simulation results show that the method is feasible and effective, the new method not only inherits the advantages of traditional visual TSK fuzzy models but also has the better global convergence and accuracy than the traditional model.

  8. Geochemical response to hydrologic change along land-sea interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, H. A.; Yu, X.; LeMonte, J. J.; Sparks, D. L.; Kim, K. H.; Heiss, J.; Ullman, W. J.; Guimond, J. A.; Seyfferth, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal groundwater-surface water interfaces are hotspots of geochemical activity, where reactants contributed by different sources come in contact. Reactions that occur along these land-sea boundaries have important effects on fluxes and cycling of carbon, nutrients, and contaminants. Hydrologic perturbations can alter interactions by promoting mixing, changing redox state, and altering subsurface residence times during which reactions may occur. We present examples from field and modeling investigations along the Delaware coastline that illustrate the impacts of hydrologic fluctuations on geochemical conditions and fluxes in different coastal environments. Along the highly populated Wilmington coastline, soils are contaminated with heavy metals from legacy industrial practices. We show with continuous redox monitoring and sampling over tidal to seasonal timescales that arsenic is mobilized and immobilized in response to hydrologic change. Along a beach, modeling and long-term monitoring show the influence of tidal to seasonal changes in the mixing zone between discharging fresh groundwater and seawater in the intertidal beach aquifer and associated impacts on biogeochemical reactivity and denitrification. In a saltmarsh, hydrologic changes alter carbon dynamics, with implications for the discharge of dissolved organic carbon to the ocean and export of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere. Understanding the impacts of hydrologic changes on both long and short timescales is essential for improving our ability to predict the global biogeochemical impacts of a changing climate.

  9. Using the hydrologic model mike she to assess disturbance impacts on watershed process and responses across the Southeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Jianbiao Lu; Steven G. McNulty; James M. Vose; Devendra M. Amayta

    2006-01-01

    A clear understanding of the basic hydrologic processes is needed to restore and manage watersheds across the diverse physiologic gradients in the Southeastern U.S. We evaluated a physically based, spatially distributed watershed hydrologic model called MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 to evaluate disturbance impacts on water use and yield across the region. Long-term forest...

  10. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...... the lack of fit in state space formulation, and further support decisions for a model expansion. By using stochastic differential equations to formulate the dynamics of the hydrological system, either the complexity of the model can be increased by including the necessary hydrological processes...... in the model, or formulation of process noise can be considered so that it meets the physical limits of the hydrological system and give an adequate description of the embedded uncertainty in model structure. The thesis consists of two parts: a summary report and a part which contains six scientific papers...

  11. Inter-comparison of experimental catchment data and hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Ibbitt, Richard; Srinivasan, M. S.; Shankar, Ude

    2017-07-01

    Hydrological models account for the storage, flow of water and water balance in a catchment, including exchanges of water and energy with the ground, atmosphere and oceans. Because of the need to simplify hydrological models, parameters are often included to help with modelling hydrological processes. Generally the parameters of lumped, semi or distributed hydrological models depend on the values estimated at a gauged location, generally at outlet of the catchment (mostly using discharge). In this approach it is hard to judge how well a model represents internal catchment processes of the hydrological cycle as well as also ignoring the spatial heterogeneity of the catchment. The purpose of the paper is to assess, and potentially improve, the ability of a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model, TopNet, using a spatially and temporally detailed set of field measurements of catchment responses to diverse weather conditions. The TopNet rainfall-runoff model was applied to the Waipara catchment located in the South Island of New Zealand. Observations from field experiments were compared with the simulation results of uncalibrated TopNet model. The total amount of simulated runoff showed reasonable agreement with observations. However, the model overestimated baseflow and underestimated surface flow. The results show that soil moisture variation within the catchment is well represented by the model. However, comparison of the observed water balance with model results show that there is a deficiency in the calculation of evapotranspiration.

  12. Assessing Hydrological Extreme Events with Geospatial Data and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivoni, Enrique R.; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Nardi, Fernando; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Castelli, Fabio; Bras, Rafael L.; Ubertini, Lucio

    2004-09-01

    Prediction of river basin hydrological response to extreme meteorological events is a primary concern in areas with frequent flooding, landslides, and debris flows. Natural hydrogeological disasters in many regions lead to extensive property damage, impact on societal activities, and loss of life. Hydrologists have a long history of assessing and predicting hydrologic hazards through the combined use of field observations, monitoring networks, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Nevertheless, the integration of field data and computer models has yet to result in prediction systems that capture space-time interactions between meteorological forcing, land surface characteristics, and the internal hydrological response in river basins. Capabilities for assessing hydrologic extreme events are greatly enhanced via the use of geospatial data sets describing watershed properties such as topography, channel structure, soils, vegetation, and geological features. Recent advances in managing, processing, and visualizing cartographic data with geographic information systems (GIS) have enabled their direct use in spatially distributed hydrological models. In a distributed model application, geospatial data sets can be used to establish the model domain, specify boundary and initial conditions, determine the spatial variation of parameter values, and provide the spatial model forcing. By representing a watershed through a set of discrete elements, distributed models simulate water, energy, and mass transport in a landscape and provide estimates of the spatial pattern of hydrologic states, fluxes, and pathways.

  13. Hydrological response to urbanization at different spatio-temporal scales simulated by coupling of CLUE-S and the SWAT model in the Yangtze River Delta region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Feng; Xu, Youpeng; Chen, Ying; Xu, C.-Y.; Gao, Yuqin; Du, Jinkang

    2013-04-01

    SummaryThe Main objective of the study is to understand and quantify the hydrological responses of land use and land cover changes. The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most developed regions in China with the rapid development of urbanization which serves as an excellent case study site for understanding the hydrological response to urbanization and land use change. The Xitiaoxi River basin, one of the main upstream rivers to the Taihu Lake in the Yangtze River Delta, was selected to perform the study. The urban area in the basin increased from 37.8 km2 in 1985 to 105 km2 in 2008. SWAT model, which makes direct use of land cover and land use data in simulating streamflow, provides as a useful tool for performing such studies and is therefore used in this study. The results showed that (1) the expansion of urban areas had a slight influence on the simulated annual streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) as far as the whole catchment is concerned; (2) surface runoff and baseflow were found more sensitive to urbanization, which had increased by 11.3% and declined by 11.2%, respectively; (3) changes in streamflow, evapotranspiration and surface runoff were more pronounced during the wet season (from May to August), while baseflow and lateral flow had a slight seasonal variation; (4) the model simulated peak discharge increased 1.6-4.3% and flood volume increased 0.7-2.3% for the selected storm rainfall events at the entire basin level, and the change rate was larger for smaller flood events than for larger events; (5) spatially, changes of hydrological fluxes were more remarkable in the suburban basin which had a relative larger increase in urbanization than in rural sub-basins; and (6) analysis of future scenarios showed the impacts of urbanization on hydrological fluxes would be more obvious with growth in impervious areas from 15% to 30%. In conclusion, the urbanization would have a slight impact on annual water yield, but a remarkable impact was found on surface

  14. Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

    1994-01-01

    A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

  15. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches, ......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed....

  16. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed....

  17. Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

  18. Modeling of Hydrologic Responses on Extreme Land Cover Scenarios%极端土地覆被情景下的水文响应模拟

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    翟春玲; 余钟波; 杨传国; 鞠琴

    2011-01-01

    Using the distributed hydrology model system (HMS) and Gographical Information System and the technology of remote sensing for data spatial analysis, a land surface-hydrology coupled model (LSX-HMS) was constructed in the Huaihe river basin. Measured hydrologic data were used to calibrate and validate the model. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for hydrologic simulations ranges from 0. 791 to 0. 854, indicating that LSX-HMS can be used for studying hydrologic processes responses to land use and cover change (LUCC) in the Huaihe river basin. Five extreme land cover scenarios are constructed with each comprising of one single type of land cover in the Huaihe river basin. The hydrologic processes for each cover scenario are simulated by using LSX-HMS. The simulated results indicate that evergreen broa-dleaf forest cover scenarios can significantly alter evapotranspiration and streamflow in the studied basin. The annual evapotranspiration increases 5. 6% and the annual depth of streamflow decreases 6. 7% ; the annual depth of streamflow under grass cover scenario increases 6. 9%. In dry years, the soil moisture content varies most rapidly under the grass cover scenarios. The modeling of streamflow s spacial distribution with LSX-HMS model shows that there is a great difference under various scenarios. This research provides a basis for developing, utilizing, allocating and managing water and soil resources in the Huaiheriver basin.%以淮河流域为研究对象,选择分布式水文模型HMS,结合GIS技术,构建了分布式陆面-水文耦合模型(LSX-HMS).利用实测水文资料进行参数率定和模型验证,确定性系数达0.791 ~0.854,表明该耦合模型在淮河流域具有较好的适用性,能进行土地覆被变化下的水文响应研究.采用极端土地利用/覆被法构建了5种土地覆被情景,利用LSX-HMS模型分析了各情景下的水文过程.结果表明:常绿阔叶林覆被情景下的蒸散发量和径流量变化最为

  19. Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal

    1998-01-01

    The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

  20. Landsat imagery for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, R. S.; Shubinski, R. P.; George, T. S.

    1980-01-01

    The cost and effectiveness of developing land cover information derived from Landsat imagery for hydrologic studies are compared with the cost and effectiveness of conventional sources. The analysis shows that the conventional and Landsat methods are nearly equally effective in providing adequate land cover data for hydrologic studies. The total cost effectiveness analysis demonstrates that the conventional method is cost effective for a study area of less than 26 sq km and that the Landsat method is to be preferred for areas of more than 26 sq km.

  1. An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for

  2. Plant adaptive behaviour in hydrological models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ploeg, M. J.; Teuling, R.

    2013-12-01

    Models that will be able to cope with future precipitation and evaporation regimes need a solid base that describes the essence of the processes involved [1]. Micro-behaviour in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system may have a large impact on patterns emerging at larger scales. A complicating factor in the micro-behaviour is the constant interaction between vegetation and geology in which water plays a key role. The resilience of the coupled vegetation-soil system critically depends on its sensitivity to environmental changes. As a result of environmental changes vegetation may wither and die, but such environmental changes may also trigger gene adaptation. Constant exposure to environmental stresses, biotic or abiotic, influences plant physiology, gene adaptations, and flexibility in gene adaptation [2-6]. Gene expression as a result of different environmental conditions may profoundly impact drought responses across the same plant species. Differences in response to an environmental stress, has consequences for the way species are currently being treated in models (single plant to global scale). In particular, model parameters that control root water uptake and plant transpiration are generally assumed to be a property of the plant functional type. Assigning plant functional types does not allow for local plant adaptation to be reflected in the model parameters, nor does it allow for correlations that might exist between root parameters and soil type. Models potentially provide a means to link root water uptake and transport to large scale processes (e.g. Rosnay and Polcher 1998, Feddes et al. 2001, Jung 2010), especially when powered with an integrated hydrological, ecological and physiological base. We explore the experimental evidence from natural vegetation to formulate possible alternative modeling concepts. [1] Seibert, J. 2000. Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 4(2): 215

  3. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

  4. Hydrological resiliency in the Western Boreal Plains: classification of hydrological responses using wavelet analysis to assess landscape resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probert, Samantha; Kettridge, Nicholas; Devito, Kevin; Hannah, David; Parkin, Geoff

    2017-04-01

    The Boreal represents a system of substantial resilience to climate change, with minimal ecological change over the past 6000 years. However, unprecedented climatic warming, coupled with catchment disturbances could exceed thresholds of hydrological function in the Western Boreal Plains. Knowledge of ecohydrological and climatic feedbacks that shape the resilience of boreal forests has advanced significantly in recent years, but this knowledge is yet to be applied and understood at landscape scales. Hydrological modelling at the landscape scale is challenging in the WBP due to diverse, non-topographically driven hydrology across the mosaic of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This study functionally divides the geologic and ecological components of the landscape into Hydrologic Response Areas (HRAs) and wetland, forestland, interface and pond Hydrologic Units (HUs) to accurately characterise water storage and infer transmission at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Wavelet analysis is applied to pond and groundwater levels to describe the patterns of water storage in response to climate signals; to isolate dominant controls on hydrological responses and to assess the relative importance of physical controls between wet and dry climates. This identifies which components of the landscape exhibit greater magnitude and frequency of variability to wetting and drying trends, further to testing the hierarchical framework for hydrological storage controls of: climate, bedrock geology, surficial geology, soil, vegetation, and topography. Classifying HRA and HU hydrological function is essential to understand and predict water storage and redistribution through drought cycles and wet periods. This work recognises which landscape components are most sensitive under climate change and disturbance and also creates scope for hydrological resiliency research in Boreal systems by recognising critical landscape components and their role in landscape collapse or catastrophic

  5. Flash flooding in small urban watersheds: Storm event hydrologic response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Long; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Zhang, Yan

    2016-06-01

    We analyze flash flooding in small urban watersheds, with special focus on the roles of rainfall variability, antecedent soil moisture, and urban storm water management infrastructure in storm event hydrologic response. Our results are based on empirical analyses of high-resolution rainfall and discharge observations over Harry's Brook watershed in Princeton, New Jersey, during 2005-2006, as well as numerical experiments with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. We focus on two subwatersheds of Harry's Brook, a 1.1 km2 subwatershed which was developed prior to modern storm water management regulations, and a 0.5 km2 subwatershed with an extensive network of storm water detention ponds. The watershed developed prior to modern storm water regulations is an "end-member" in urban flood response, exhibiting a frequency of flood peaks (with unit discharge exceeding 1 m3 s-1 km-2) that is comparable to the "flashiest" watersheds in the conterminous U.S. Observational analyses show that variability in storm event water balance is strongly linked to peak rain rates at time intervals of less than 30 min and only weakly linked to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Peak discharge for both the 1.1 and 0.5 km2 subwatersheds are strongly correlated with rainfall rate averaged over 1-30 min. Hydrologic modeling analyses indicate that the sensitivity of storm event hydrologic response to spatial rainfall variability decreases with storm intensity. Temporal rainfall variability is relatively more important than spatial rainfall variability in representing urban flood response, especially for extreme storm events.

  6. Investigating the role of geology in the hydrological response of Mediterranean catchments prone to flash-floods: Regional modelling study and process understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannier, Olivier; Anquetin, Sandrine; Braud, Isabelle

    2016-10-01

    In this study, a regional distributed hydrological model is used to perform long-term and flash-flood event simulations, over the Cévennes-Vivarais region (south of France). The objective is to improve our understanding on the role played by geology on the hydrological processes of catchments during two past flash-flood events. This modelling work is based on Vannier et al. ("Regional estimation of catchment-scale soil properties by means of streamflow recession analysis for use in distributed hydrological models", Hydrological Processes, 2014), where streamflow recessions are analysed to estimate the thickness and hydraulic conductivity of weathered rock layers, depending on the geological nature of catchments. Weathered rock layers are thus implemented into the hydrological model CVN-p, and the contribution of these layers is assessed during flash-flood events simulations as well as during inter-event periods. The model is used without any calibration, to test hypotheses on the active hydrological processes. The results point out two different hydrological behaviours, depending on the geology: on crystalline rocks (granite and gneiss), the addition of a weathered rock layer considerably improves the simulated discharges, during flash-flood events as well as during recession periods, and makes the model able to remarkably reproduce the observed streamflow dynamics. For other geologies (schists especially), the benefits are real, but not sufficient to properly simulate the observed streamflow dynamics. These results probably underline the existence of poorly known processes (flow paths, non-linear spilling process) associated with the planar structure of schisty rocks. On a methodological point of view, this study proposes a simple way to account for the additional storage associated with each geological entity, through the addition of a weathered porous rock layer situated below the traditionally-considered upper soil horizons, and shows its applicability and

  7. Evaluating Hydrologic Response of an Agricultural Watershed for Watershed Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Kumar Jha

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the hydrological assessment of an agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States through the use of a watershed scale hydrologic model. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to the Maquoketa River watershed, located in northeast Iowa, draining an agriculture intensive area of about 5,000 km2. The inputs to the model were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency’s geographic information/database system called Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS. Meteorological input, including precipitation and temperature from six weather stations located in and around the watershed, and measured streamflow data at the watershed outlet, were used in the simulation. A sensitivity analysis was performed using an influence coefficient method to evaluate surface runoff and baseflow variations in response to changes in model input hydrologic parameters. The curve number, evaporation compensation factor, and soil available water capacity were found to be the most sensitive parameters among eight selected parameters. Model calibration, facilitated by the sensitivity analysis, was performed for the period 1988 through 1993, and validation was performed for 1982 through 1987. The model was found to explain at least 86% and 69% of the variability in the measured streamflow data for calibration and validation periods, respectively. This initial hydrologic assessment will facilitate future modeling applications using SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed for various watershed analyses, including watershed assessment for water quality management, such as total maximum daily loads, impacts of land use and climate change, and impacts of alternate management practices.

  8. Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melsen, Lieke Anna

    2017-01-01

    Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting output

  9. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of mode

  10. Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of mode

  11. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of mode

  12. Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of mode

  13. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    (see also, Hamilton, ElSawah, Guillaume, Jakeman, and Pierce 2015; Jakeman and Letcher 2003). Our contribution attempts to close a gap between previous concepts of integration of socio-economic aspects into hydrology (typically inspired by Integrated Water Resources Management) and the new socio-hydrology approach. We suppose that socio-hydrology could benefit from widening its scope and considering previous research at the boundaries between hydrology and social sciences. At the same time, concepts developed prior to socio-hydrology were seldom entirely successful. It might be beneficial to review these approaches developed earlier and those that are being developed in parallel from the perspective of socio-hydrology. References: Barthel, R., S. Janisch, N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, and W. Mauser. 2008. An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23: 1095-1121. Barthel, R., D. Nickel, A. Meleg, A. Trifkovic, and J. Braun. 2005. Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 30: 389-397. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2005.06.006 Hamilton, S. H., S. ElSawah, J. H. A. Guillaume, A. J. Jakeman, and S. A. Pierce. 2015. Integrated assessment and modelling: Overview and synthesis ofsalient dimensions. Environmental Modelling and Software, 64: 215-229. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.005 Jakeman, A. J., and R. A. Letcher. 2003. Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management. Environmental Modelling & Software, 18: 491-501. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(03)00024-0 Mauser, W., and M. Prasch. 2016. Regional Assessment of Global Change Impacts - The Project GLOWA-Danube: Springer International Publishing.

  14. A modeling approach to assess the hydrological response of small mediterranean catchments to the variability of soil characteristics in a context of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Manus

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a modeling study aiming at quantifying the possible impact of soil characteristics on the hydrological response of small ungauged catchments in a context of extreme events. The study focuses on the September 2002 event in the Gard region (South-Eastern France, which led to catastrophic flash-floods. The proposed modeling approach is able to take into account rainfall variability and soil profiles variability. Its spatial discretization is determined using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and a soil map. The model computes infiltration, ponding and vertical soil water distribution, as well as river discharge. In order to be applicable to ungauged catchments, the model is set up without any calibration and the soil parameter specification is based on an existing soil database. The model verification is based on a regional evaluation using 17 estimated discharges obtained from an extensive post-flood investigation. Thus, this approach provides a spatial view of the hydrological response across a large range of scales. To perform the simulations, radar rainfall estimations are used at a 1 km2 and 5 min resolution. To specify the soil hydraulic properties, two types of pedotransfer function (PTF are compared. It is shown that the PTF including information about soil structure reflects better the spatial variability that can be encountered in the field. The study is focused on four small ungauged catchments of less than 10 km2, which experienced casualties. Simulated specific peak discharges are found to be in agreement with estimations from a post-event in situ investigation. Examining the dynamics of simulated infiltration and saturation degrees, two different behaviors are shown which correspond to different runoff production mechanisms that could be encountered within catchments of less than 10 km2. They produce simulated runoff coefficients that evolve in time and highlight the variability of the

  15. Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

    2011-12-01

    Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions.

  16. Hydrologic response to stormwater control measures in urban watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Colin D.; McMillan, Sara K.; Clinton, Sandra M.; Jefferson, Anne J.

    2016-10-01

    Stormwater control measures (SCMs) are designed to mitigate deleterious effects of urbanization on river networks, but our ability to predict the cumulative effect of multiple SCMs at watershed scales is limited. The most widely used metric to quantify impacts of urban development, total imperviousness (TI), does not contain information about the extent of stormwater control. We analyzed the discharge records of 16 urban watersheds in Charlotte, NC spanning a range of TI (4.1-54%) and area mitigated with SCMs (1.3-89%). We then tested multiple watershed metrics that quantify the degree of urban impact and SCM mitigation to determine which best predicted hydrologic response across sites. At the event time scale, linear models showed TI to be the best predictor of both peak unit discharge and rainfall-runoff ratios across a range of storm sizes. TI was also a strong driver of both a watershed's capacity to buffer small (e.g., 1-10 mm) rain events, and the relationship between peak discharge and precipitation once that buffering capacity is exceeded. Metrics containing information about SCMs did not appear as primary predictors of event hydrologic response, suggesting that the level of SCM mitigation in many urban watersheds is insufficient to influence hydrologic response. Over annual timescales, impervious surfaces unmitigated by SCMs and tree coverage were best correlated with streamflow flashiness and water yield, respectively. The shift in controls from the event scale to the annual scale has important implications for water resource management, suggesting that overall limitation of watershed imperviousness rather than partial mitigation by SCMs may be necessary to alleviate the hydrologic impacts of urbanization.

  17. Statistical analyses of hydrologic system components and simulation of Edwards aquifer water-level response to rainfall using transfer-function models, San Antonio region, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lisa D.; Long, Andrew J.

    2006-01-01

    In 2003 the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, did a study using historical data to statistically analyze hydrologic system components in the San Antonio region of Texas and to develop transfer-function models to simulate water levels at selected sites (wells) in the Edwards aquifer on the basis of rainfall. Water levels for two wells in the confined zone in Medina County and one well in the confined zone in Bexar County were highly correlated and showed little or no lag time between water-level responses. Water levels in these wells also were highly correlated with springflow at Comal Springs. Water-level hydrographs for 35 storms showed that an individual well can respond differently to similar amounts of rainfall. Fourteen water-level-recession hydrographs for a Medina County well showed that recession rates were variable. Transfer-function models were developed to simulate water levels at one confined-zone well and two recharge-zone wells in response to rainfall. For the confined-zone well, 50 percent of the simulated water levels are within 10 feet of the measured water levels, and 80 percent of the simulated water levels are within 15 feet of the measured water levels. For one recharge-zone well, 50 percent of the simulated water levels are within 5 feet of the measured water levels, and 90 percent of the simulated water levels are within 14 feet of the measured water levels. For the other recharge-zone well, 50 percent of the simulated water levels are within 14 feet of the measured water levels, and 90 percent of the simulated water levels are within 27 feet of the measured water levels. The transfer-function models showed that (1) the Edwards aquifer in the San Antonio region responds differently to recharge (effective rainfall) at different wells; and (2) multiple flow components are present in the aquifer. If simulated long-term system response results from a change in the hydrologic budget, then water levels would

  18. Balancing model complexity and measurements in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Giesen, N.; Schoups, G.; Weijs, S. V.

    2012-12-01

    The Data Processing Inequality implies that hydrological modeling can only reduce, and never increase, the amount of information available in the original data used to formulate and calibrate hydrological models: I(X;Z(Y)) ≤ I(X;Y). Still, hydrologists around the world seem quite content building models for "their" watersheds to move our discipline forward. Hydrological models tend to have a hybrid character with respect to underlying physics. Most models make use of some well established physical principles, such as mass and energy balances. One could argue that such principles are based on many observations, and therefore add data. These physical principles, however, are applied to hydrological models that often contain concepts that have no direct counterpart in the observable physical universe, such as "buckets" or "reservoirs" that fill up and empty out over time. These not-so-physical concepts are more like the Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community. Within AI, one quickly came to the realization that by increasing model complexity, one could basically fit any dataset but that complexity should be controlled in order to be able to predict unseen events. The more data are available to train or calibrate the model, the more complex it can be. Many complexity control approaches exist in AI, with Solomonoff inductive inference being one of the first formal approaches, the Akaike Information Criterion the most popular, and Statistical Learning Theory arguably being the most comprehensive practical approach. In hydrology, complexity control has hardly been used so far. There are a number of reasons for that lack of interest, the more valid ones of which will be presented during the presentation. For starters, there are no readily available complexity measures for our models. Second, some unrealistic simplifications of the underlying complex physics tend to have a smoothing effect on possible model

  19. On the Usefulness of Hydrologic Landscapes for Hydrologic Modeling and Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic Landscapes (HLs) are units that can be used in aggregate to describe the watershed-scale hydrologic response of an area through use of physical and climatic properties. The HL assessment unit is a useful classification tool to relate and transfer hydrologically meaning...

  20. On the Usefulness of Hydrologic Landscapes on Hydrologic Model calibration and Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic Landscapes (HLs) are units that can be used in aggregate to describe the watershed-scale hydrologic response of an area through use of physical and climatic properties. The HL assessment unit is a useful classification tool to relate and transfer hydrologically meaning...

  1. The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Konstantinos M Andreadis; Narendra Das; Dimitrios Stampoulis; Amor Ines; Joshua B Fisher; Stephanie Granger; Jessie Kawata; Eunjin Han; Ali Behrangi

    2017-01-01

    The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications...

  2. Simulation of the cumulative hydrological response to green infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avellaneda, P. M.; Jefferson, A. J.; Grieser, J. M.; Bush, S. A.

    2017-04-01

    In this study, we evaluated the cumulative hydrologic performance of green infrastructure in a residential area of the city of Parma, Ohio, draining to a tributary of the Cuyahoga River. Green infrastructure included the following spatially distributed devices: 16 street-side bioretention cells, 7 rain gardens, and 37 rain barrels. Data consisted of rainfall and outfall flow records for a wide range of storm events, including pretreatment and treatment periods. The Stormwater Management Model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrologic response of green infrastructure. The calibrated model was used to quantify annual water budget alterations and discharge frequency over a 6 year simulation period. For the study catchment, we observed a treatment effect with increases of 1.4% in evaporation, 7.6% in infiltration, and a 9.0% reduction in surface runoff. The hydrologic performance of green infrastructure was evaluated by comparing the flow duration curve for pretreatment and treatment outfall flow scenarios. The flow duration curve shifted downward for the green infrastructure scenario. Discharges with a 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 year return period were reduced by an average of 29%. Parameter and predictive uncertainties were inspected by implementing a Bayesian statistical approach.

  3. Parameterization guidelines and considerations for hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

     R. W. Malone; G. Yagow; C. Baffaut; M.W  Gitau; Z. Qi; Devendra Amatya; P.B.   Parajuli; J.V. Bonta; T.R.  Green

    2015-01-01

     Imparting knowledge of the physical processes of a system to a model and determining a set of parameter values for a hydrologic or water quality model application (i.e., parameterization) are important and difficult tasks. An exponential...

  4. Treatments of Precipitation Inputs to Hydrologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrological models are used to assess many water resources problems from agricultural use and water quality to engineering issues. The success of these models are dependent on correct parameterization; the most sensitive being the rainfall input time series. These records can come from land-based ...

  5. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...... the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...

  6. Modelling of green roof hydrological performance for urban drainage applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for stormwater management and their impact on the urban hydrological cycle can be evaluated by incorporating them into urban drainage models. This paper presents a model of green roof long term and single event hydrological performance. The model includes...... from 3 different extensive sedum roofs in Denmark. These data consist of high-resolution measurements of runoff, precipitation and atmospheric variables in the period 2010–2012. The hydrological response of green roofs was quantified based on statistical analysis of the results of a 22-year (1989...... and that the mean annual runoff is not linearly related to the storage. Green roofs have therefore the potential to be important parts of future urban stormwater management plans....

  7. Thermodynamic watershed hydrological model: Constitutive relationship

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The representative elementary watershed (REW) approach proposed by Reggiani et al. was the first attempt to develop scale adaptable equations applicable directly at the macro scale. Tian et al. extended the initial definition of REW for simulating the energy related processes, and re-organized the deriving procedure of balance equations so that additional sub-regions and substances could be easily incorpo-rated. The resultant ordinary differential equation set can simulate various hydro-logical processes in a physically reasonable way. However, constitutive and geo-metric relationships have not been developed for Tian et al.’s equation set, which are necessary for the thermodynamic watershed hydrological model to apply in hydrological modeling practice. In this work, the constitutive equations for mass exchange terms and momentum exchange terms were developed as well as geo-metric relationships. The closed ordinary differential equation set with nine equa-tions was finally obtained.

  8. Validation of a national hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

    2016-10-01

    Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

  9. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  10. Revising Hydrology of a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vine, Nataliya; Butler, Adrian; McIntyre, Neil; Jackson, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    Land Surface Models (LSMs) are key elements in guiding adaptation to the changing water cycle and the starting points to develop a global hyper-resolution model of the terrestrial water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. However, before this potential is realised, there are some fundamental limitations of LSMs related to how meaningfully hydrological fluxes and stores are represented. An important limitation is the simplistic or non-existent representation of the deep subsurface in LSMs; and another is the lack of connection of LSM parameterisations to relevant hydrological information. In this context, the paper uses a case study of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator) LSM applied to the Kennet region in Southern England. The paper explores the assumptions behind JULES hydrology, adapts the model structure and optimises the coupling with the ZOOMQ3D regional groundwater model. The analysis illustrates how three types of information can be used to improve the model's hydrology: a) observations, b) regionalized information, and c) information from an independent physics-based model. It is found that: 1) coupling to the groundwater model allows realistic simulation of streamflows; 2) a simple dynamic lower boundary improves upon JULES' stationary unit gradient condition; 3) a 1D vertical flow in the unsaturated zone is sufficient; however there is benefit in introducing a simple dual soil moisture retention curve; 4) regionalized information can be used to describe soil spatial heterogeneity. It is concluded that relatively simple refinements to the hydrology of JULES and its parameterisation method can provide a substantial step forward in realising its potential as a high-resolution multi-purpose model.

  11. A modelling approach to assess the hydrological response of small Mediterranean catchments to the variability of soil characteristics in a context of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Manus

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a modeling study aiming at quantifying the possible impact of soil characteristics on the hydrological response of small ungauged catchments in a context of extreme events. The study focuses on the September 2002 event in the Gard region (South-Eastern France, which led to catastrophic flash-floods. The proposed modeling approach is able to take into account rainfall variability and soil profiles variability. Its spatial discretization is determined using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and a soil map. The model computes infiltration, ponding and vertical soil water distribution, as well as river discharge. The model is set up without any calibration and the soil parameter specification is based on an existing soil database. To perform the simulations, radar rainfall estimations are used at a 1 km2 and 5 min resolution. To specify the soil hydraulic properties, two types of pedotransfer function (PTF are compared. It is shown that the PTF including information about soil structure reflects better the spatial variability that can be encountered in the field. The study is focused on four small ungauged catchments of less than 10 km2, which experienced casualties. Simulated specific peak discharges are found to be in agreement with estimations from a post-event in situ investigation. Examining the dynamics of simulated infiltration and saturation degrees, two different behaviors are shown which correspond to different runoff production mechanisms that could be encountered within catchments of less than 10 km2. They produce simulated runoff coefficients that evolve in time and highlight the variability of the infiltration capacity of the various soil types. Therefore, we propose a cartography distinguishing between areas prone to saturation excess and areas prone only to infiltration excess mechanisms. The questions raised by this modeling study will be useful to improve field observations, aiming at

  12. Eco-Hydrological Modelling of Stream Valleys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Ole

    Predicting the effects of hydrological alterations on terrestrial stream valley ecosystems requires multidisciplinary approaches involving both engineers and ecologists. Groundwater discharge in stream valleys and other lowland areas support a number of species rich ecosystems, and their protection...... is prioritised worldwide. Protection requires improved knowledge on the functioning of these ecosystems and especially the linkages between vegetation, groundwater discharge and water level conditions are crucial for management applications. Groundwater abstraction affects catchment hydrology and thereby also...... groundwater discharge. Numerical hydrological modelling has been widely used for evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources and effects of abstraction, however, the importance of local scale heterogeneity becomes increasingly important in the assessment of local damage to these groundwater dependent...

  13. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES MODELLING USING ADVANCED HYDROINFORMATIC TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BEILICCI ERIKA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The water has an essential role in the functioning of ecosystems by integrating the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain life. Water is a key factor in determining the productivity of ecosystems, biodiversity and species composition. Water is also essential for humanity: water supply systems for population, agriculture, fisheries, industries, and hydroelectric power depend on water supplies. The modelling of hydrological processes is an important activity for water resources management, especially now, when the climate change is one of the major challenges of our century, with strong influence on hydrological processes dynamics. Climate change and needs for more knowledge in water resources require the use of advanced hydroinformatic tools in hydrological processes modelling. The rationale and purpose of advanced hydroinformatic tools is to develop a new relationship between the stakeholders and the users and suppliers of the systems: to offer the basis (systems which supply useable results, the validity of which cannot be put in reasonable doubt by any of the stakeholders involved. For a successful modelling of hydrological processes also need specialists well trained and able to use advanced hydro-informatics tools. Results of modelling can be a useful tool for decision makers to taking efficient measures in social, economical and ecological domain regarding water resources, for an integrated water resources management.

  14. Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghada Machtoub

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

  15. Inverse distributed hydrological modelling of alpine catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kunstmann

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Even in physically based distributed hydrological models, various remaining parameters must be estimated for each sub-catchment. This can involve tremendous effort, especially when the number of sub-catchments is large and the applied hydrological model is computationally expensive. Automatic parameter estimation tools can significantly facilitate the calibration process. Hence, we combined the nonlinear parameter estimation tool PEST with the distributed hydrological model WaSiM. PEST is based on the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg method, a gradient-based nonlinear parameter estimation algorithm. WaSiM is a fully distributed hydrological model using physically based algorithms for most of the process descriptions.

    WaSiM was applied to the alpine/prealpine Ammer River catchment (southern Germany, 710 km2 in a 100×100 m2 horizontal resolution. The catchment is heterogeneous in terms of geology, pedology and land use and shows a complex orography (the difference of elevation is around 1600 m. Using the developed PEST-WaSiM interface, the hydrological model was calibrated by comparing simulated and observed runoff at eight gauges for the hydrologic year 1997 and validated for the hydrologic year 1993. For each sub-catchment four parameters had to be calibrated: the recession constants of direct runoff and interflow, the drainage density, and the hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost aquifer. Additionally, five snowmelt specific parameters were adjusted for the entire catchment. Altogether, 37 parameters had to be calibrated. Additional a priori information (e.g. from flood hydrograph analysis narrowed the parameter space of the solutions and improved the non-uniqueness of the fitted values. A reasonable quality of fit was achieved. Discrepancies between modelled and observed runoff were also due to the small number of meteorological stations and corresponding interpolation artefacts in the orographically complex

  16. Modelling of soil acidity and nitrogen availability in natural ecosystems in response to changes in acid deposition and hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kros, J.; Reinds, G.J.; Vries, de W.

    1995-01-01

    Changes in vegetation are often caused by changes in abiotic site factors. The SMART2 model has been developed to evaluate the effects of changes in ion inputs by atmospheric deposition and seepage on these site factors. Linkage with the Multiple Stress Model for Vegetation (MOVE) enables evaluation

  17. Avian community responses to variability in river hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royan, Alexander; Hannah, David M; Reynolds, S James; Noble, David G; Sadler, Jonathan P

    2013-01-01

    River flow is a major driver of morphological structure and community dynamics in riverine-floodplain ecosystems. Flow influences in-stream communities through changes in water velocity, depth, temperature, turbidity and nutrient fluxes, and perturbations in the organisation of lower trophic levels are cascaded through the food web, resulting in shifts in food availability for consumer species. River birds are sensitive to spatial and phenological mismatches with aquatic prey following flow disturbances; however, the role of flow as a determinant of riparian ecological structure remains poorly known. This knowledge is crucial to help to predict if, and how, riparian communities will be influenced by climate-induced changes in river flow characterised by more extreme high (i.e. flood) and/or low (i.e. drought) flow events. Here, we combine national-scale datasets of river bird surveys and river flow archives to understand how hydrological disturbance has affected the distribution of riparian species at higher trophic levels. Data were analysed for 71 river locations using a Generalized Additive Model framework and a model averaging procedure. Species had complex but biologically interpretable associations with hydrological indices, with species' responses consistent with their ecology, indicating that hydrological-disturbance has implications for higher trophic levels in riparian food webs. Our quantitative analysis of river flow-bird relationships demonstrates the potential vulnerability of riparian species to the impacts of changing flow variability and represents an important contribution in helping to understand how bird communities might respond to a climate change-induced increase in the intensity of floods and droughts. Moreover, the success in relating parameters of river flow variability to species' distributions highlights the need to include river flow data in climate change impact models of species' distributions.

  18. Hydrologic modeling of detention pond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban watersheds produce an instantaneous response to rainfall. That results in stormwater runoff in excess of the capacity of drainage systems. The excess stormwater must be managed to prevent flooding and erosion of streams. Management can be achieved with the help of structural stormwater Best...

  19. Towards Better Coupling of Hydrological Simulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penton, D.; Stenson, M.; Leighton, B.; Bridgart, R.

    2012-12-01

    Standards for model interoperability and scientific workflow software provide techniques and tools for coupling hydrological simulation models. However, model builders are yet to realize the benefits of these and continue to write ad hoc implementations and scripts. Three case studies demonstrate different approaches to coupling models, the first using tight interfaces (OpenMI), the second using a scientific workflow system (Trident) and the third using a tailored execution engine (Delft Flood Early Warning System - Delft-FEWS). No approach was objectively better than any other approach. The foremost standard for coupling hydrological models is the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI), which defines interfaces for models to interact. An implementation of the OpenMI standard involves defining interchange terms and writing a .NET/Java wrapper around the model. An execution wrapper such as OatC.GUI or Pipistrelle executes the models. The team built two OpenMI implementations for eWater Source river system models. Once built, it was easy to swap river system models. The team encountered technical challenges with versions of the .Net framework (3.5 calling 4.0) and with the performance of the execution wrappers when running daily simulations. By design, the OpenMI interfaces are general, leaving significant decisions around the semantics of the interfaces to the implementer. Increasingly, scientific workflow tools such as Kepler, Taverna and Trident are able to replace custom scripts. These tools aim to improve the provenance and reproducibility of processing tasks. In particular, Taverna and the myExperiment website have had success making many bioinformatics workflows reusable and sharable. The team constructed Trident activities for hydrological software including IQQM, REALM and eWater Source. They built an activity generator for model builders to build activities for particular river systems. The models were linked at a simulation level, without any daily time

  20. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gorgan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  1. How good is good in hydrological modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, J.; Vis, M.; van Meerveld, I. H. J.

    2016-12-01

    Models are never perfect and hydrological models are no exception. Even with the most sophisticated hydrological models, runoff simulations never fully agree. This is at least partly because of uncertainties in the observed input and output data. On the other hand, even a poor model can often provide fair simulations simply because the forcing data (precipitation, temperature, …) do not allow the model to go completely wrong. Commonly used measures to assess model performance, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, do not allow direct judgment of model performance in terms of what can be achieved with a certain dataset, and different guidelines are given in the literature on what values indicate a good model performance. This is not satisfactory, especially when it comes to assessing the performances of uncalibrated models. We, therefore, suggest the use of an upper and a lower benchmark to better assess model performance. The upper benchmark is a measure of what can be achieved and can be quantified by the performance of a calibrated simple model. The lower benchmark is a measure of what can be expected and can be quantified by an ensemble mean of an uncalibrated simple model where random parameter sets or parameter sets from other catchments are used. In this contribution, we focus on this lower benchmark. Preliminary results using the HBV model, a simple, bucket-type model, indicated surprisingly good model performance of the ensemble means, even when individual parameterisations resulted in very poor fits. To test this further, we applied the HBV model using data from 600 catchments in the USA. The model was calibrated for each catchment and different ensembles where used to compute ensemble mean time series based on: 1) random parameter values, 2) parameter sets from all 600 catchments (minus the one in question), 3) parameter sets from all catchments in the respective hydrological region as defined by the USGS, and 4) parameter sets from the x nearest

  2. The hydrological response of catchments to simulated changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viney, Neil R.; Sivapalan, Murugesu [Centre for Water Research, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA (Australia)

    1996-04-17

    The Large Scale Catchment Model has been developed to predict the responses in stream yield and salinity to changes in land use and climate in southwestern Western Australia. In this paper it is used to simulate, for one small forested catchment, the hydrological consequences that might be associated with a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The simulations assume that the region will experience a decrease in the amount of winter rainfall (with an increase in rainfall intensity) and an increase in potential evaporation. The results suggest that the assumed change in climate has the potential to lead to a 45% decrease in stream runoff in this catchment. About two-thirds of this decrease is associated with the reduction in rainfall; the remainder being associated with the increased potential evaporation. Furthermore, stream salinity is predicted to increase by about 8%, mostly in response to the enhanced evaporation regime

  3. Thermodynamic watershed hydrological model: Constitutive relationship

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN FuQiang; HU HePing; LEI ZhiDong

    2008-01-01

    The representative elementary watershed (REW) approach proposed by Reggiani et al. Was the first attempt to develop scale adaptable equations applicable directly at the macro scale. Tian et al. Extended the initial definition of REW for simulating the energy related processes, and re-organized the deriving procedure of balance equations so that additional sub-regions and substances could be easily incorpo- rated. The resultant ordinary differential equation set can simulate various hydro- logical processes in a physically reasonable way. However, constitutive and geo- metric relationships have not been developed for Tian et al.'s equation set, which are necessary for the thermodynamic watershed hydrological model to apply in hydrological modeling practice. In this work, the constitutive equations for mass exchange terms and momentum exchange terms were developed as well as geo- metric relationships. The closed ordinary differential equation set with nine equations was finally obtained.

  4. Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W

    2014-01-01

    Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

  5. Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schaefli

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that these universal and time-invariant organizing principles can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. The organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  6. HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Schymanski

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  7. Evapotranspiration and irrigation algorithms in hydrologic modeling:Present Status and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic models are used extensively for predicting water availability and water quality responses to alternative irrigation, tillage, crop, and fertilizer management practices and global climate change. Modeling results have been frequently used by regulatory agencies for developing remedial meas...

  8. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorner, W.; Spachinger, K.; Porter, M.; Metzka, R.

    2008-11-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  9. Geographically Isolated Wetlands and Catchment Hydrology: A Modified Model Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, G.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; D'Amico, E.

    2014-12-01

    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), typically defined as depressional wetlands surrounded by uplands, support an array of hydrological and ecological processes. However, key research questions concerning the hydrological connectivity of GIWs and their impacts on downgradient surface waters remain unanswered. This is particularly important for regulation and management of these systems. For example, in the past decade United States Supreme Court decisions suggest that GIWs can be afforded protection if significant connectivity exists between these waters and traditional navigable waters. Here we developed a simulation procedure to quantify the effects of various spatial distributions of GIWs across the landscape on the downgradient hydrograph using a refined version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a catchment-scale hydrological simulation model. We modified the SWAT FORTRAN source code and employed an alternative hydrologic response unit (HRU) definition to facilitate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes and connectivity relationships to other surface waters, and to quantify their downgradient hydrological effects. We applied the modified SWAT model to an ~ 202 km2 catchment in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA, exhibiting a substantial population of mapped GIWs. Results from our series of GIW distribution scenarios suggest that: (1) Our representation of GIWs within SWAT conforms to field-based characterizations of regional GIWs in most respects; (2) GIWs exhibit substantial seasonally-dependent effects upon downgradient base flow; (3) GIWs mitigate peak flows, particularly following high rainfall events; and (4) The presence of GIWs on the landscape impacts the catchment water balance (e.g., by increasing groundwater outflows). Our outcomes support the hypothesis that GIWs have an important catchment-scale effect on downgradient streamflow.

  10. Documentation for the hydrological discharge model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, S.; Duemenil, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1998-10-01

    To improve the representation of hydrological land surface processes, which has so far been treated inadequately in global models of the atmospheric general circulation (GCMs), a model for the lateral waterflows from the continents into the ocean on the global scale was developed. The model describes the translation and retention of the lateral discharge as a function of the spatially distributed land surface characteristics that are globally available. Here, global scale refers to the resolution of 0.5 and lower, corresponding to a typical GCM gridbox area of about 2500 km{sup 2}. This model is called the Hydrological Discharge model or HD model. The HD model computes the discharge only at 0.5 resolution. A model input fields (runoff and drainage, see Sect. 3.1.) from the various GCM resolutions are interpolated to the same 0.5 grid. Thus, input fields may be used from any available resolution, if the corresponding interpolation routine to the 0.5 degree grid is provided. Since the HD model uses a time step of one day, a temporal resolution of one day is sufficient for the input fields. (orig.)

  11. Distributed hydrological models: comparison between TOPKAPI, a physically based model and TETIS, a conceptually based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, E.; Guna, V.

    2009-04-01

    The present work aims to carry out a comparison between two distributed hydrological models, the TOPKAPI (Ciarapica and Todini, 1998; Todini and Ciarapica, 2001) and TETIS (Vélez, J. J.; Vélez J. I. and Francés, F, 2002) models, obtaining the hydrological solution computed on the basis of the same storm events. The first model is physically based and the second one is conceptually based. The analysis was performed on the 21,4 km2 Goodwin Creek watershed, located in Panola County, Mississippi. This watershed extensively monitored by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) National Sediment Laboratory (NSL) has been chosen because it offers a complete database compiling precipitation (16 rain gauges), runoff (6 discharge stations) and GIS data. Three storm events were chosen to evaluate the performance of the two models: the first one was chosen to calibrate the models, and the other two to validate them. Both models performed a satisfactory hydrological response both in calibration and validation events. While for the TOPKAPI model it wasn't a real calibration, due to its really good performance with parameters modal values derived of watershed characteristics, for the TETIS model it has been necessary to perform a previous automatic calibration. This calibration was carried out using the data provided by the observed hydrograph, in order to adjust the modeĺs 9 correction factors. Keywords: TETIS, TOPKAPI, distributed models, hydrological response, ungauged basins.

  12. Data Assimilation in Integrated and Distributed Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Donghua

    Integrated hydrological models are frequently used in water-related environmental resource management. With our better understanding of the hydrological processes and the improved computational power, hydrological models are becoming increasingly more complex as they integrate multiple hydrological...... to efficient use of traditional and new observational data in integrated hydrological models, as this technique can improve model prediction and reduce model uncertainty. The thesis investigates several challenges within the scope of data assimilation in integrated hydrological models. From the methodological...... point of view, different assimilation methodologies and techniques have been developed or customized to better serve hydrological assimilation. From the application point of view, real data and real-world complex catchments are used with the focus of investigating the models’ improvements with data...

  13. Data Assimilation in Integrated and Distributed Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Donghua

    Integrated hydrological models are frequently used in water-related environmental resource management. With our better understanding of the hydrological processes and the improved computational power, hydrological models are becoming increasingly more complex as they integrate multiple hydrological...... processes and provide simulations in refined temporal and spatial resolutions. Recent developments in measurement and sensor technologies have significantly improved the coverage, quality, frequency and diversity of hydrological observations. Data assimilation provides a great potential in relation...... to efficient use of traditional and new observational data in integrated hydrological models, as this technique can improve model prediction and reduce model uncertainty. The thesis investigates several challenges within the scope of data assimilation in integrated hydrological models. From the methodological...

  14. An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

    2015-01-01

    The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

  15. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  16. Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

  17. Hydrologic modeling in a marsh-mangrove ecotone: Predicting wetland surface water and salinity response to restoration in the Ten Thousand Islands region of Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michot, B.D.; Meselhe, E.A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Shrestha, Surendra; From, Andrew S.; Patino, Eduardo

    2017-01-01

    At the fringe of Everglades National Park in southwest Florida, United States, the Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge (TTINWR) habitat has been heavily affected by the disruption of natural freshwater flow across the Tamiami Trail (U.S. Highway 41). As the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) proposes to restore the natural sheet flow from the Picayune Strand Restoration Project area north of the highway, the impact of planned measures on the hydrology in the refuge needs to be taken into account. The objective of this study was to develop a simple, computationally efficient mass balance model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of water level and salinity within the area of interest. This model could be used to assess the effects of the proposed management decisions on the surface water hydrological characteristics of the refuge. Surface water variations are critical to the maintenance of wetland processes. The model domain is divided into 10 compartments on the basis of their shared topography, vegetation, and hydrologic characteristics. A diversion of +10% of the discharge recorded during the modeling period was simulated in the primary canal draining the Picayune Strand forest north of the Tamiami Trail (Faka Union Canal) and this discharge was distributed as overland flow through the refuge area. Water depths were affected only modestly. However, in the northern part of the refuge, the hydroperiod, i.e., the duration of seasonal flooding, was increased by 21 days (from 115 to 136 days) for the simulation during the 2008 wet season, with an average water level rise of 0.06 m. The average salinity over a two-year period in the model area just south of Tamiami Trail was reduced by approximately 8 practical salinity units (psu) (from 18 to 10 psu), whereas the peak dry season average was reduced from 35 to 29 psu (by 17%). These salinity reductions were even larger with greater flow diversions (+20%). Naturally, the reduction

  18. Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Yue-Ping; Booij, Martijn J.; Tong, Yang-Bin

    2010-01-01

    With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrologi

  19. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  20. A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.

    2014-12-01

    Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

  1. Physical models for classroom teaching in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhe, A.

    2012-09-01

    Hydrology teaching benefits from the fact that many important processes can be illustrated and explained with simple physical models. A set of mobile physical models has been developed and used during many years of lecturing at basic university level teaching in hydrology. One model, with which many phenomena can be demonstrated, consists of a 1.0-m-long plexiglass container containing an about 0.25-m-deep open sand aquifer through which water is circulated. The model can be used for showing the groundwater table and its influence on the water content in the unsaturated zone and for quantitative determination of hydraulic properties such as the storage coefficient and the saturated hydraulic conductivity. It is also well suited for discussions on the runoff process and the significance of recharge and discharge areas for groundwater. The flow paths of water and contaminant dispersion can be illustrated in tracer experiments using fluorescent or colour dye. This and a few other physical models, with suggested demonstrations and experiments, are described in this article. The finding from using models in classroom teaching is that it creates curiosity among the students, promotes discussions and most likely deepens the understanding of the basic processes.

  2. Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Krause

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of hydrologic model behaviour and performance is commonly made and reported through comparisons of simulated and observed variables. Frequently, comparisons are made between simulated and measured streamflow at the catchment outlet. In distributed hydrological modelling approaches, additional comparisons of simulated and observed measurements for multi-response validation may be integrated into the evaluation procedure to assess overall modelling performance. In both approaches, single and multi-response, efficiency criteria are commonly used by hydrologists to provide an objective assessment of the "closeness" of the simulated behaviour to the observed measurements. While there are a few efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of determination, and index of agreement that are frequently used in hydrologic modeling studies and reported in the literature, there are a large number of other efficiency criteria to choose from. The selection and use of specific efficiency criteria and the interpretation of the results can be a challenge for even the most experienced hydrologist since each criterion may place different emphasis on different types of simulated and observed behaviours. In this paper, the utility of several efficiency criteria is investigated in three examples using a simple observed streamflow hydrograph.

  3. An event-based hydrologic simulation model for bioretention systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy-Poirier, A; Filion, Y; Champagne, P

    2015-01-01

    Bioretention systems are designed to treat stormwater and provide attenuated drainage between storms. Bioretention has shown great potential at reducing the volume and improving the quality of stormwater. This study introduces the bioretention hydrologic model (BHM), a one-dimensional model that simulates the hydrologic response of a bioretention system over the duration of a storm event. BHM is based on the RECARGA model, but has been adapted for improved accuracy and integration of pollutant transport models. BHM contains four completely-mixed layers and accounts for evapotranspiration, overflow, exfiltration to native soils and underdrain discharge. Model results were evaluated against field data collected over 10 storm events. Simulated flows were particularly sensitive to antecedent water content and drainage parameters of bioretention soils, which were calibrated through an optimisation algorithm. Temporal disparity was observed between simulated and measured flows, which was attributed to preferential flow paths formed within the soil matrix of the field system. Modelling results suggest that soil water storage is the most important short-term hydrologic process in bioretention, with exfiltration having the potential to be significant in native soils with sufficient permeability.

  4. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  5. One-day offset in daily hydrologic modeling: An exploration of the issue in automatic model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    The literature of daily hydrologic modelling illustrates that daily simulation models are incapable of accurately representing hydrograph timing due to relationships between precipitation and watershed hydrologic response. For watersheds with a time of concentration less than 24 hrs and a late day p...

  6. Modelling the hydrological response of debris-free and debris-covered glaciers to present climatic conditions in the semiarid Andes of central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Alvaro; Pellicciotti, Francesca; MacDonell, Shelley; McPhee, James; Vivero, Sebastián; Campos, Cristián; Egli, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the main contributors to runoff of a 62 km2 glacierized catchment in the semiarid Andes of central Chile, where both debris-free and debris-covered glaciers are present, combining an extensive set of field measurements, remote sensing products and an advanced glacio-hydrological model (TOPKAPI-ETH). The catchment contains two debris-free glaciers reaching down to 3900 m asl (Bello and Yeso Glaciers) and one debris-covered avalanche-fed glacier reaching to 3200 m asl (Piramide Glacier). A unique dataset of field measurements collected in the ablation seasons 2013-14 and 2014-15 included four automatic weather stations, manual measurements of snow depth and debris cover thickness, discharge measurements at glaciers outlets, photographic monitoring of surface albedo as well as ablation stakes measurements and snow pits. TOPKAPI-ETH combines physically-oriented parameterizations of snow and ice ablation, gravitational distribution of snow, snow albedo evolution, glacier dynamics, runoff routing and the ablation of debris-covered ice.We obtained the first detailed estimation of mass balance and runoff contribution of debris-covered glaciers in this mountainous region. Results show that while the mass balance of Bello and Yeso Glaciers is mostly controlled by air temperature lapse rates, the mass balance of Piramide Glacier is governed by debris thickness and avalanches. In fact, gravitational distribution by avalanching on wet years plays a key role and modulates the mass balance gradient of all glaciers in the catchment and can turn local mass balance from negative to positive. This is especially the case for Piramide Glacier, which shows large amounts of snow accumulation below the steep walls surrounding its upper area. Despite the thermal insulation effect of the debris cover, the contribution to runoff from debris-free and debris-covered glaciers is similar, mainly due to elevation differences. At the catchment scale, snowmelt represents more than 60

  7. The Chena River Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    ER D C/ CR R EL T R -1 2 -1 The Chena River Watershed Hydrology Model C ol d R eg io n s R es ea rc h an d E n gi n ee ri n g La...14 Table 6. Estimated monthly ET using Hargreaves method and pan...using water balance method A generalized water balance for the Chena River watershed can be written as mS P S ET R     (3) where P

  8. Analysis of the hydrological response of a distributed physically-based model using post-assimilation (EnKF) diagnostics of streamflow and in situ soil moisture observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trudel, Mélanie; Leconte, Robert; Paniconi, Claudio

    2014-06-01

    Data assimilation techniques not only enhance model simulations and forecast, they also provide the opportunity to obtain a diagnostic of both the model and observations used in the assimilation process. In this research, an ensemble Kalman filter was used to assimilate streamflow observations at a basin outlet and at interior locations, as well as soil moisture at two different depths (15 and 45 cm). The simulation model is the distributed physically-based hydrological model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) and the study site is the Des Anglais watershed, a 690 km2 river basin located in southern Quebec, Canada. Use of Latin hypercube sampling instead of a conventional Monte Carlo method to generate the ensemble reduced the size of the ensemble, and therefore the calculation time. Different post-assimilation diagnostics, based on innovations (observation minus background), analysis residuals (observation minus analysis), and analysis increments (analysis minus background), were used to evaluate assimilation optimality. An important issue in data assimilation is the estimation of error covariance matrices. These diagnostics were also used in a calibration exercise to determine the standard deviation of model parameters, forcing data, and observations that led to optimal assimilations. The analysis of innovations showed a lag between the model forecast and the observation during rainfall events. Assimilation of streamflow observations corrected this discrepancy. Assimilation of outlet streamflow observations improved the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) between the model forecast (one day) and the observation at both outlet and interior point locations, owing to the structure of the state vector used. However, assimilation of streamflow observations systematically increased the simulated soil moisture values.

  9. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  10. A priori discretization error metrics for distributed hydrologic modeling applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongli; Tolson, Bryan A.; Craig, James R.; Shafii, Mahyar

    2016-12-01

    Watershed spatial discretization is an important step in developing a distributed hydrologic model. A key difficulty in the spatial discretization process is maintaining a balance between the aggregation-induced information loss and the increase in computational burden caused by the inclusion of additional computational units. Objective identification of an appropriate discretization scheme still remains a challenge, in part because of the lack of quantitative measures for assessing discretization quality, particularly prior to simulation. This study proposes a priori discretization error metrics to quantify the information loss of any candidate discretization scheme without having to run and calibrate a hydrologic model. These error metrics are applicable to multi-variable and multi-site discretization evaluation and provide directly interpretable information to the hydrologic modeler about discretization quality. The first metric, a subbasin error metric, quantifies the routing information loss from discretization, and the second, a hydrological response unit (HRU) error metric, improves upon existing a priori metrics by quantifying the information loss due to changes in land cover or soil type property aggregation. The metrics are straightforward to understand and easy to recode. Informed by the error metrics, a two-step discretization decision-making approach is proposed with the advantage of reducing extreme errors and meeting the user-specified discretization error targets. The metrics and decision-making approach are applied to the discretization of the Grand River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Results show that information loss increases as discretization gets coarser. Moreover, results help to explain the modeling difficulties associated with smaller upstream subbasins since the worst discretization errors and highest error variability appear in smaller upstream areas instead of larger downstream drainage areas. Hydrologic modeling experiments under

  11. The hydrological response of baseflow in fractured mountain areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Losada

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The study of baseflow in mountainous areas of basin headwaters, where the characteristics of the often fractured materials are very different to the standard issues concerning porous material applied in conventional hydrogeology, is an essential element in the characterization and quantification of water system resources. Their analysis through recession fragments provides information on the type of response of the sub-surface and subterranean systems and on the average relation between the storage and discharge of aquifers, starting from the joining of these fragments into a single curve, the Master Recession Curve (MRC. This paper presents the generation of the downward MRC over fragments selected after a preliminary analysis of the recession curves, using a hydrological model as the methodology for the identification and the characterization of quick sub-surface flows flowing through fractured materials. The hydrological calculation has identified recession fragments through surface runoff or snowmelt and those periods of intense evapotranspiration. The proposed methodology has been applied to three sub-basins belonging to a high altitude mountain basin in the Mediterranean area, with snow present every year, and their results were compared with those for the upward concatenation of the recession fragments. The results show the existence of two different responses, one quick (at the sub-surface, through the fractured material and the other slow, with linear behaviour which takes place in periods of 10 and 17 days respectively and which is linked to the dimensions of the sub-basin. In addition, recesses belonging to the dry season have been selected in order to compare and validate the results corresponding to the study of recession fragments. The comparison, using these two methodologies, which differ in the time period selected, has allowed us to validate the results obtained for the slow flow.

  12. The hydrological response of baseflow in fractured mountain areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Millares

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The study of baseflow in mountainous areas of basin headwaters, where the characteristics of the often fractured materials are very different to the standard issues concerning porous material applied in conventional hydrogeology, is an essential element in the characterization and quantification of water system resources. Their analysis through recession fragments provides information on the type of response of the sub-surface and subterranean systems and on the average relation between the storage and discharge of aquifers, starting from the joining of these fragments into a single curve, the Master Recession Curve (MRC. This paper presents the generation of the downward MRC over fragments selected after a preliminary analysis of the recession curves, using a hydrological model as the methodology for the identification and the characterization of quick sub-surface flows flowing through fractured materials. The hydrological calculation has identified recession fragments through surface runoff or snowmelt and those periods of intense evapotranspiration. The proposed methodology has been applied to three sub-basins belonging to a high altitude mountain basin in the Mediterranean area, with snow present every year, and their results were compared with those for the upward concatenation of the recession fragments. The results show the existence of two different responses, one quick (at the sub-surface, through the fractured material and the other slow, with linear behavior which takes place in periods of 10 and 17 days, respectively and which is linked to the dimensions of the sub-basin. In addition, recesses belonging to the dry season have been selected in order to compare and validate the results corresponding to the study of recession fragments. The comparison, using these two methodologies, which differ in the time period selected, has allowed us to validate the results obtained for the slow flow.

  13. Physically-based Hydrologic-response Simulation of a Steep, Zero-Order Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, B. A.; Loague, K. M.; Dietrich, W. E.; Montgomery, D. R.; Torres, R.; Anderson, S. P.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Vanderkwaak, J. E.

    2005-12-01

    Near-surface hydrologic response plays a critical role in landscape evolution, particularly in steep terrain where hydrologically-driven slope instability is the predominant mechanism of sediment removal. Despite the importance of hydrology in governing the timing and extent of slope failure, the majority of slope stability modeling efforts utilize steady-state approximations to the 1D or 2D saturated subsurface flow equations to generate pore pressures. The effort reported here employs the comprehensive, physics-based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) to rigorously simulate near-surface hydrologic response. InHM simulates, in a fully-coupled approach, 3D transient variably-saturated flow and solute transport in porous media and macropores and 2D transient flow and solute transport over the land surface and in open channels. Our modeling approach is tested with the extensive data sets from the 860 m2 Coos Bay experimental catchment (CB1) in the Oregon Coast Range for both sprinkling experiments (event-based simulation) and natural storms (continuous simulation). The instrumentation at CB1 for characterizing the spatial and temporal variability in hydrologic response includes an exhaustive array of rain gages, piezometers, tensiometers, TDR wave guide pairs, lysimeters, meteorological sensors, and two weirs all monitored during three, week-long sprinkling experiments. Continuous measurements of rainfall, discharge, and total head (from selected piezometers) are available from 1990 through 1996. Extensive site characterization at CB1 provides high resolution topography and soil characteristics (e.g., geometry/thickness, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil-water content, porosity, and hysteretic capillary pressure relationships). CB1 provides one of the most comprehensive hydrologic response data sets in existence for a steep catchment that has experienced slope failure. Results from 3D InHM simulations include comparisons of observed versus simulated runoff

  14. Plant growth simulation for landscape scale hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landscape scale hydrologic models can be improved by incorporating realistic, process-oriented plant models for simulating crops, grasses, and woody species. The objective of this project was to present some approaches for plant modeling applicable to hydrologic models like SWAT that can affect the...

  15. Hydrologic connectivity: Quantitative assessments of hydrologic-enforced drainage structures in an elevation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppenga, Sandra; Worstell, Bruce B.

    2016-01-01

    Elevation data derived from light detection and ranging present challenges for hydrologic modeling as the elevation surface includes bridge decks and elevated road features overlaying culvert drainage structures. In reality, water is carried through these structures; however, in the elevation surface these features impede modeled overland surface flow. Thus, a hydrologically-enforced elevation surface is needed for hydrodynamic modeling. In the Delaware River Basin, hydrologic-enforcement techniques were used to modify elevations to simulate how constructed drainage structures allow overland surface flow. By calculating residuals between unfilled and filled elevation surfaces, artificially pooled depressions that formed upstream of constructed drainage structure features were defined, and elevation values were adjusted by generating transects at the location of the drainage structures. An assessment of each hydrologically-enforced drainage structure was conducted using field-surveyed culvert and bridge coordinates obtained from numerous public agencies, but it was discovered the disparate drainage structure datasets were not comprehensive enough to assess all remotely located depressions in need of hydrologic-enforcement. Alternatively, orthoimagery was interpreted to define drainage structures near each depression, and these locations were used as reference points for a quantitative hydrologic-enforcement assessment. The orthoimagery-interpreted reference points resulted in a larger corresponding sample size than the assessment between hydrologic-enforced transects and field-surveyed data. This assessment demonstrates the viability of rules-based hydrologic-enforcement that is needed to achieve hydrologic connectivity, which is valuable for hydrodynamic models in sensitive coastal regions. Hydrologic-enforced elevation data are also essential for merging with topographic/bathymetric elevation data that extend over vulnerable urbanized areas and dynamic coastal

  16. Performance Assessment of Hydrological Models Considering Acceptable Forecast Error Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianjin Dong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM and bound methods are used to identify the reliability. Through the case study of the Dahuofang (DHF Reservoir, it is shown that the correlation between these two errors has great influence on the reliability index of hydrological model. In particular, the reliability index of the DHF hydrological model decreases with the increasing correlation. Based on the reliability theory, the proposed performance evaluation framework incorporating the acceptable forecast error threshold and correlation among the multiple errors can be used to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model and to quantify the uncertainties of a hydrological model output.

  17. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  18. Calibration of hydrological model with programme PEST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brilly, Mitja; Vidmar, Andrej; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

    2016-04-01

    PEST is tool based on minimization of an objective function related to the root mean square error between the model output and the measurement. We use "singular value decomposition", section of the PEST control file, and Tikhonov regularization method for successfully estimation of model parameters. The PEST sometimes failed if inverse problems were ill-posed, but (SVD) ensures that PEST maintains numerical stability. The choice of the initial guess for the initial parameter values is an important issue in the PEST and need expert knowledge. The flexible nature of the PEST software and its ability to be applied to whole catchments at once give results of calibration performed extremely well across high number of sub catchments. Use of parallel computing version of PEST called BeoPEST was successfully useful to speed up calibration process. BeoPEST employs smart slaves and point-to-point communications to transfer data between the master and slaves computers. The HBV-light model is a simple multi-tank-type model for simulating precipitation-runoff. It is conceptual balance model of catchment hydrology which simulates discharge using rainfall, temperature and estimates of potential evaporation. Version of HBV-light-CLI allows the user to run HBV-light from the command line. Input and results files are in XML form. This allows to easily connecting it with other applications such as pre and post-processing utilities and PEST itself. The procedure was applied on hydrological model of Savinja catchment (1852 km2) and consists of twenty one sub-catchments. Data are temporary processed on hourly basis.

  19. Calibration and validation of DRAINMOD to model bioretention hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R. A.; Skaggs, R. W.; Hunt, W. F.

    2013-04-01

    SummaryPrevious field studies have shown that the hydrologic performance of bioretention cells varies greatly because of factors such as underlying soil type, physiographic region, drainage configuration, surface storage volume, drainage area to bioretention surface area ratio, and media depth. To more accurately describe bioretention hydrologic response, a long-term hydrologic model that generates a water balance is needed. Some current bioretention models lack the ability to perform long-term simulations and others have never been calibrated from field monitored bioretention cells with underdrains. All peer-reviewed models lack the ability to simultaneously perform both of the following functions: (1) model an internal water storage (IWS) zone drainage configuration and (2) account for soil-water content using the soil-water characteristic curve. DRAINMOD, a widely-accepted agricultural drainage model, was used to simulate the hydrologic response of runoff entering a bioretention cell. The concepts of water movement in bioretention cells are very similar to those of agricultural fields with drainage pipes, so many bioretention design specifications corresponded directly to DRAINMOD inputs. Detailed hydrologic measurements were collected from two bioretention field sites in Nashville and Rocky Mount, North Carolina, to calibrate and test the model. Each field site had two sets of bioretention cells with varying media depths, media types, drainage configurations, underlying soil types, and surface storage volumes. After 12 months, one of these characteristics was altered - surface storage volume at Nashville and IWS zone depth at Rocky Mount. At Nashville, during the second year (post-repair period), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for drainage and exfiltration/evapotranspiration (ET) both exceeded 0.8 during the calibration and validation periods. During the first year (pre-repair period), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for drainage, overflow, and exfiltration

  20. Assessment of Hydrologic Response to Variable Precipitation Forcing: Russian River Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Hsu, C.; Johnson, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) activities in California have involved deployment of advanced sensor networks to better track atmospheric river (AR) dynamics and inland penetration of high water vapor air masses. Numerical weather prediction models and decision support tools have been developed to provide forecasters a better basis for forecasting heavy precipitation and consequent flooding. The HMT also involves a joint project with California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and the Scripps Institute for Oceanography (SIO) as part of CA-DWR's Enhanced Flood Response and Emergency Preparedness (EFREP) program. The HMT activities have included development and calibration of a distributed hydrologic model, the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development's (OHD) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM), to prototype the distributed approach for flood and other water resources applications. HMT has applied RDHM to the Russian-Napa watersheds for research assessment of gap-filling weather radars for precipitation and hydrologic forecasting and for establishing a prototype to inform both the NWS Monterey Forecast Office and the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) of RDHM capabilities. In this presentation, a variety of precipitation forcings generated with and without gap filling radar and rain gauge data are used as input to RDHM to assess the hydrologic response for selected case study events. Both the precipitation forcing and hydrologic model are run at different spatial and temporal resolution in order to examine the sensitivity of runoff to the precipitation inputs. Based on the timing of the events and the variations of spatial and temporal resolution, the parameters which dominate the hydrologic response are identified. The assessment is implemented at two USGS stations (Ukiah near Russian River and Austin Creek near Cazadero) that are minimally influenced by managed flows and objective evaluation can thus be derived. The results are assessed

  1. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  2. Impact of wetlands mapping on parameterization of hydrologic simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viger, R.

    2015-12-01

    Wetlands and other surface depressions can impact hydrologic response within the landscape in a number of ways, such as intercepting runoff and near-surface flows or changing the potential for evaporation and seepage into the soil. The role of these features is increasingly being integrated into hydrological simulation models, such as the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and applied to landscapes where wetlands are dominating features. Because the extent of these features varies widely through time, many modeling applications rely on delineations of the maximum possible extent to define total capacity of a model's spatial response unit. This poster presents an evaluation of several wetland map delineations for the Pipestem River basin in the North Dakota Prairie-pothole region. The featured data sets include the US Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), surface water bodies extracted from the US Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), and elevation depressions extracted from 1 meter LiDAR data for the area. In addition to characterizing differences in the quality of these datasets, the poster will assess the impact of these differences when parameters are derived from them for the spatial response units of the PRMS model.

  3. Influence of the spatial discretization degree on the hydrological response of a flatland watershed through distributed mathematical modeling; Influencia del grado de discretizacion espacial en la respuesta hidrologica de una cuenca de llanura mediante modelacion matematica distribuida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenta, Herman Roberto; Riccardi, Gerardo A; Basile, Pedro A [Universidad Nacional de Rosario (Mexico)

    2008-07-15

    Distributed hydrological models are suitable for the determination of time and space variability of hydrological responses within a given watershed. In a watershed, the model can be implemented with different levels of space resolution, mainly as a function of data availability, objectives of the numerical study, and requirements of the system to be modeled. In this paper, the effects on landscape representation due to different cell sizes are analyzed and scaling of parameters in a lower spatial resolution level is proposed in order to obtain similarity in hydrological responses between different degrees of discretization. The comparison was made in terms of maximum discharge, maximum flow velocity, and maximum water depth by simulating a number of observed and hypothetical hydrological events. The concept of total equilibrium state of the watershed was used. Under these circumstances, the roughness coefficients associated to overland and stream flow and the storage function of each discretization element were adjusted separately for the lower spatial resolution level. The results show that the similarity in hydrological responses, in terms of maximum water depth, obtained by adjusting the storage function of the cells, is better than that corresponding to the adjustment of roughness coefficients. [Spanish] Los modelos matematicos de parametros distribuidos resultan particularmente apropiados para determinar la variabilidad espacial y temporal de las respuestas hidrologicas dentro de un determinado sistema hidrico. En una cuenca es posible realizar la constitucion de un modelo con diferentes niveles de detalle en funcion principalmente de la disponibilidad de informacion de entrada necesaria, de los objetivos de estudio y de los requerimientos de modelado del sistema. En el presente trabajo se analizan los efectos producidos en la representacion del relieve debido a los diferentes tamanos de celda en que se ha discretizado una cuenca de llanura y se propone el

  4. Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Malet

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between rainfall, hydrology and landslide movement are often difficult to establish. In this context, ground-water flow analyses and dynamic modelling can help to clarify these complex relations, simulate the landslide hydrological behaviour in real or hypothetical situations, and help to forecast future scenarios based on environmental change. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of including more temporal and spatial information in landslide hydrology forecasting, by using a physically based spatially distributed model. Results of the hydrological and geomorphological investigation of the Super-Sauze earthflow, one of the persistently active landslide occurring in clay-rich material of the French Alps, are presented. Field surveys, continuous monitoring and interpretation of the data have shown that, in such material, the groundwater level fluctuates on a seasonal time scale, with a strong influence of the unsaturated zone. Therefore a coupled unsaturated/saturated model, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, fissure flow and meltwater flow is needed to adequately represent the landslide hydrology. The conceptual model is implemented in a 2.5-D spatially distributed hydrological model. The model is calibrated and validated on a multi-parameters database acquired on the site since 1997. The complex time-dependent and three-dimensional groundwater regime is well described, in both the short- and long-term. The hydrological model is used to forecast the future hydrological behaviour of the earthflow in response to potential environmental changes.

  5. Multi-model assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a small Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perra, Enrica; Piras, Monica; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Cau, Pierluigi; Marras, Pier Andrea; Meyer, Swen; Ludwig, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the hydrologic impacts of climate change is of great importance in the Mediterranean region, which is characterized by high precipitation variablitity and complex interactions within the water cycle. In this work we focus on the hydrological response of the Rio Mannu catchment, a small basin located in southern Sardinia (Italy) and characterized by a semi-arid climate. Specifically, we investigate inter-model variability and uncertainty by comparing the results of five distributed hydrologic models, namely CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration eXtended (TOPKAPI-X), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter flow and balance SIMulation (WASIM), that differ greatly in their representation of terrain features, physical processes, and numerical complexity. The hydrological models were independently calibrated and validated on observed meteorological and hydrological time series, and then forced by the output of four combinations of global and regional climate models (properly bias-corrected and downscaled) in order to evaluate the effects of climate change for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period. Notwithstanding their differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages. The multi-model framework allows estimation of the uncertainty associated with these hydrologic simulations and this aspect will also be discussed.

  6. Influence of high resolution rainfall data on the hydrological response of urban flat catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

    2016-04-01

    In the last decades, cities have become more and more urbanized and population density in urban areas is increased. At the same time, due to the climate changes, rainfall events present higher intensity and shorter duration than in the past. The increase of imperviousness degree, due to urbanization, combined with short and intense rainfall events, determinates a fast hydrological response of the urban catchment and in some cases it can lead to flooding. Urban runoff processes are sensitive to rainfall spatial and temporal variability and, for this reason, high resolution rainfall data are required as input for the hydrological model. A better knowledge of the hydrological response of system can help to prevent damages caused by flooding. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of urban hydrological response to spatial and temporal rainfall variability in urban areas, focusing especially on understanding the hydrological behaviour in lowland areas. In flat systems, during intense rainfall events, the flow in the sewer network can be pressurized and it can change direction, depending on the setting of pumping stations and CSOs (combined sewer overflow). In many cases these systems are also looped and it means that the water can follow different paths, depending on the pipe filling process. For these reasons, hydrological response of flat and looped catchments is particularly complex and it can be difficult characterize and predict it. A new dual polarimetric X-band weather radar, able to measure rainfall with temporal resolution of 1 min and spatial resolution of 100mX100m, was recently installed in the city of Rotterdam (NL). With this instrument, high resolution rainfall data were measured and used, in this work, as input for the hydrodynamic model. High detailed, semi-distributed hydrodynamic models of some districts of Rotterdam were used to investigate the hydrological response of flat catchments to high resolution rainfall data. In particular, the

  7. The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2017-01-01

    The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

  8. RHydro - Hydrological models and tools to represent and analyze hydrological data in R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reusser, D. E.; Buytaert, W.; Vitolo, C.

    2012-04-01

    In hydrology, basic equations and procedures keep being implemented from scratch by scientist, with the potential for errors and inefficiency. The use of libraries can overcome these problems. As an example, hydrological libraries could contain: 1. Major representations of hydrological processes such as infiltration, sub-surface runoff and routing algorithms. 2. Scaling functions, for instance to combine remote sensing precipitation fields with rain gauge data 3. Data consistency checks 4. Performance measures. Here we present a beginning for such a library implemented in the high level data programming language R. Currently, Top-model, the abc-Model, HBV, a multi-model ensamble called FUSE, data import routines for WaSiM-ETH as well basic visualization and evaluation tools are implemented. Care is taken to make functions and models compatible with other existing frameworks in hydrology, such as for example Hydromad.

  9. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-01-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or m

  10. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  11. Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir

  12. Monthly Hydrological Model Evaluation through Mapping the Hydrological Pattern to Information Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, B.; Cong, Z.

    2014-12-01

    Conceptual and stochastic monthly hydrological models have been widely used for climatic change impact exploration and long-range stream flow forecast. With disparate philosophies and different but insufficient inputs, most of the existing models are capable of generating satisfying outputs, which reveals a relatively robust idiosyncrasy of hydrological pattern over monthly time scale. This research uses the epistemic-aleatory uncertainties evaluation framework to examine the information source sink terms and flows of 6 conceptual monthly water balance models and a seasonal autoregressive stochastic hydrologic model over 19 basins in Jiangxi Province, China and the experiment basins of MOPEX project. By using the stream technique of Lisp, we constructed two programming paradigms into which the hydrological models mentioned above could be fitted. We focus on detecting and explaining the best achievable predictive performances and data-revealed insufficient of the models in each paradigm, especially the hydrological meaning of the iteration variables in these models. Finally, we make an attempt to compare and connect these two paradigms against the backdrop of algorithmic information theory to help us form a better understanding of monthly hydrological pattern.

  13. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  14. On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-07-01

    Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

  15. On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

  16. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  17. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  18. Catchment hydrological responses to forest harvest amount and spatial pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alex Abdelnour; Marc Stieglitz; Feifei Pan; Robert. McKane

    2011-01-01

    Forest harvest effects on streamflow generation have been well described experimentally, but a clear understanding of process-level hydrological controls can be difficult to ascertain from data alone. We apply a new model, Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments (VELMA), to elucidate how hillslope and catchment-scale processes control stream discharge in...

  19. Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Stoof

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. Taking a unique approach, we performed a catchment-scale experimental fire to improve insight into the drivers of fire impact on hydrology. In north-central Portugal, rainfall, canopy interception, streamflow and soil moisture were monitored in shrub-covered paired catchments pre- and post-fire. Post-fire runoff coefficients were higher than pre-fire, and fire changed the rainfall-streamflow relationship – although the increase in streamflow was only significant at the subcatchment-scale. Fire also increased the response of topsoil moisture to rainfall, and caused more rapid drying of topsoils after rain events. Since soil physical changes due to fire were not apparent, we suggest that changes resulting from vegetation removal played an important role in increasing streamflow after fire, namely: (1 increased effective rainfall and decreased transpiration – increasing the amount of water available for (subsurface runoff, (2 more rapid development of soil water repellency and decreased surface water storage – increasing overland flow risk, (3 more rapid breakdown of post-fire soil water repellency – increasing infiltration during extended rain events. Results stress that fire impact on hydrology is largely affected by scale, highlight the hydrological impact of fire on small scales, and emphasize the risk of overestimating fire impact when upscaling plot-scale studies to the catchment-scale. Finally, they increase understanding of the processes contributing to post-fire flooding and erosion events.

  20. Hydrologic modeling of pathogen fate and transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorner, Sarah M; Anderson, William B; Slawson, Robin M; Kouwen, Nicholas; Huck, Peter M

    2006-08-01

    A watershed-scale fate and transport model has been developed for Escherichia coli and several waterborne pathogens: Cryptosporidiumspp., Giardiaspp., Campylobacter spp, and E. coli O157:H7. The objectives were to determine the primary sources of pathogenic contamination in a watershed used for drinking water supply and to gain a greater understanding of the factors that most influence their survival and transport. To predict the levels of indicator bacteria and pathogens in surface water, an existing hydrologic model, WATFLOOD, was augmented for pathogen transport and tested on a watershed in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. The pathogen model considered transport as a result of overland flow, subsurface flow to tile drainage systems, and in-stream routing. The model predicted that most microorganisms entering the stream from land-based sources enter the stream from tile drainage systems rather than overland transport. Although the model predicted overland transport to be rare, when it occurred, it corresponded to the highest observed and modeled microbial concentrations. Furthermore, rapid increases in measured E. coli concentrations during storm events suggested that the resuspension of microorganisms from stream sediments may be of equal or greater importance than land-based sources of pathogens.

  1. A hydrological model of New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, R. A.; Tarboton, D. G.; Ibbitt, R. P.; Wild, M.; Henderson, R. D.; Turner, R.

    2003-04-01

    We present initial results from a hydrological model of New Zealand, using Topnet, a variant of TOPMODEL, linked to a kinematic wave channel network routing algorithm. This model run uses daily timesteps for the period 1985-2001, and subdivides the country into approximately 35,000 sub-catchments of 7-10 sq km each. The sub-catchments are linked by 55,000 river reaches, which route sub-catchment runoff. The model subcatchments and reaches are defined automatically by DEM analyses, and initial estimates of model parameters are defined by GIS overlay, coupled with purpose-built model assembly code, and lookup tables for model parameters. A daily simulation for 1 year over New Zealand takes two hours on a standard desktop computer. The model is forced by gridded daily rainfall and temperature data, and it calculates daily water balance for each of the sub-catchments (rain, evaporation, throughfall, infiltration, soil drainage, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and changes in storage in the canopy, root zone, and saturated storage), as well as daily flows in each river reach. The model as currently implemented does not include snow, glaciers, or deep groundwater flow (i.e. across sub-catchment boundaries). The first applications of the model are for developing an annual water balance of New Zealand for the period 1994-2001, at the regional scale, and for driving a high-spatial resolution, daily time-stepping national erosion model. We are moving to further applications for water resource modeling (e.g. impact of abstraction and/or storage), and for flood forecasting, using hourly rainfall from a mesoscale atmospheric model.

  2. Modeled hydrologic metrics show links between hydrology and the functional composition of stream assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Christopher J; Yuan, Lester L

    2017-07-01

    Flow alteration is widespread in streams, but current understanding of the effects of differences in flow characteristics on stream biological communities is incomplete. We tested hypotheses about the effect of variation in hydrology on stream communities by using generalized additive models to relate watershed information to the values of different flow metrics at gauged sites. Flow models accounted for 54-80% of the spatial variation in flow metric values among gauged sites. We then used these models to predict flow metrics in 842 ungauged stream sites in the mid-Atlantic United States that were sampled for fish, macroinvertebrates, and environmental covariates. Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages were characterized in terms of a suite of metrics that quantified aspects of community composition, diversity, and functional traits that were expected to be associated with differences in flow characteristics. We related modeled flow metrics to biological metrics in a series of stressor-response models. Our analyses identified both drying and base flow instability as explaining 30-50% of the observed variability in fish and invertebrate community composition. Variations in community composition were related to variations in the prevalence of dispersal traits in invertebrates and trophic guilds in fish. The results demonstrate that we can use statistical models to predict hydrologic conditions at bioassessment sites, which, in turn, we can use to estimate relationships between flow conditions and biological characteristics. This analysis provides an approach to quantify the effects of spatial variation in flow metrics using readily available biomonitoring data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  3. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Garcia

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human and hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding the choice of modeling structure, scope, and detail. A shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope, and detail to remain contingent and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate its utility by exploring a question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP with hedging policy (HP. The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decreases during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to

  4. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  5. An integrated hydrologic modeling framework for coupling SWAT with MODFLOW

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), MODFLOW, and Energy Balance based Evapotranspiration (EB_ET) models are extensively used to estimate different components of the hydrological cycle. Surface and subsurface hydrological processes are modeled in SWAT but limited to the extent of shallow aquif...

  6. Multi-Objective Calibrationo of Hydrologic Model Using Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic modeling often involves a large number of parameters, some of which cannot be measured directly and may vary with land cover, soil or even seasons. Therefore parameter estimation is a critical step in applying a hydrologic model to any study area. Parameter estimation is typically done by...

  7. Hydrological Modelling of Small Catchments Using Swat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, N.; White, S. M.; Worrall, F.; Groves, S.

    The data from a 142ha catchment in Eastern England(Colworth, Bedfordshire)are be- ing used to investigate the performance of the USDA SWAT software for modelling hydrology of small catchments. Stream flow at the catchment outlet has been mon- itored since October 1999. About 50% of the total catchment is directly controlled within one farm and a rotation of wheat, oil seed rape, grass, linseed, beans and peas is grown. Three years of stream flow and climate data are available. Calibration and validation of stream flow was carried out with both runoff modelling options in the SWAT model (USDA curve number method and the Green and Ampt method). The Nash and Sutcliffe efficiencies for the calibration period were 66% and 63% respec- tively. The performance of SWAT was better in the validation period as a whole, with regard to timing of peaks, baseflow values and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency. An ef- ficiency of 70% was obtained using the curve number method, which is comparable with the efficiencies obtainable with more complex models. Despite this performance, SWAT is under predicting stream flow peaks. A detailed investigation of important model components, has allowed us to identify some of the reasons for under predic- tion of stream flow peaks.

  8. A priori discretization quality metrics for distributed hydrologic modeling applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongli; Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James; Shafii, Mahyar; Basu, Nandita

    2016-04-01

    In distributed hydrologic modelling, a watershed is treated as a set of small homogeneous units that address the spatial heterogeneity of the watershed being simulated. The ability of models to reproduce observed spatial patterns firstly depends on the spatial discretization, which is the process of defining homogeneous units in the form of grid cells, subwatersheds, or hydrologic response units etc. It is common for hydrologic modelling studies to simply adopt a nominal or default discretization strategy without formally assessing alternative discretization levels. This approach lacks formal justifications and is thus problematic. More formalized discretization strategies are either a priori or a posteriori with respect to building and running a hydrologic simulation model. A posteriori approaches tend to be ad-hoc and compare model calibration and/or validation performance under various watershed discretizations. The construction and calibration of multiple versions of a distributed model can become a seriously limiting computational burden. Current a priori approaches are more formalized and compare overall heterogeneity statistics of dominant variables between candidate discretization schemes and input data or reference zones. While a priori approaches are efficient and do not require running a hydrologic model, they do not fully investigate the internal spatial pattern changes of variables of interest. Furthermore, the existing a priori approaches focus on landscape and soil data and do not assess impacts of discretization on stream channel definition even though its significance has been noted by numerous studies. The primary goals of this study are to (1) introduce new a priori discretization quality metrics considering the spatial pattern changes of model input data; (2) introduce a two-step discretization decision-making approach to compress extreme errors and meet user-specified discretization expectations through non-uniform discretization threshold

  9. Hydrological and Biogeochemical Trajectories Change in Response to Permafrost Thaw in Arctic and Subarctic Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Striegl, R. G.; Walvoord, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    High latitude regions are particularly susceptible to changes in hydrology, carbon and nutrient biogeochemistry, and ecosystem dynamics in response to climate warming. However, these regions are vast, have few historical data, and are difficult to study because of their remoteness. Large-scale studies of water and materials exports by river systems inform on changes that are occurring on the basin scale, but provide limited process level information. Conversely, process studies in small watersheds and catchments provide bounds on responses to environmental change, but have limited value in scaling to larger systems, unless the variability of controlling conditions has been adequately captured and the distribution of these conditions is known. Regional process-based models that accurately account for spatial and temporal variability can inform on the potential location and intensity of change in a basin or region. We use the Yukon River basin of Alaska USA and NW Canada as a model for understanding the trajectories of hydrologic and carbon cycle changes in permafrost-dominated landscapes. Early measurements of carbon exports by the Yukon River suggested that recent changes in hydrology were affecting C exports; this was confirmed by historical analyses of change in groundwater contributions to river flow. Since all carbon cycling processes are directly linked to water distribution, availability, and movement, we recognized the need for implementing hydrologic models to quantify the role of permafrost on water flow and distribution and to accurately project hydrologic conditions, based on historical hydrologic information, current and projected land surface and subsurface information, and current and projected climatic information. Coupling of hydrologic projections with source, sink, and other process understanding of carbon biogeochemistry resulted in improved basin scale understanding of current and future carbon dynamics in permafrost-dominated landscapes.

  10. An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

  11. California climate change, hydrologic response, and flood forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, Norman L.

    2003-11-11

    There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research

  12. Potential for Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data in Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engman, Edwin T.

    1997-01-01

    Many hydrologic processes display a unique signature that is detectable with microwave remote sensing. These signatures are in the form of the spatial and temporal distributions of surface soil moisture and portray the spatial heterogeneity of hydrologic processes and properties that one encounters in drainage basins. The hydrologic processes that may be detected include ground water recharge and discharge zones, storm runoff contributing areas, regions of potential and less than potential ET, and information about the hydrologic properties of soils and heterogeneity of hydrologic parameters. Microwave remote sensing has the potential to detect these signatures within a basin in the form of volumetric soil moisture measurements in the top few cm. These signatures should provide information on how and where to apply soil physical parameters in distributed and lumped parameter models and how to subdivide drainage basins into hydrologically similar sub-basins.

  13. Evaluation of the value of radar QPE data and rain gauge data for hydrological modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Xin; Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-01-01

    Weather radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is in principle superior to the areal precipitation estimated by using rain gauge data only, and therefore has become increasingly popular in applications such as hydrological modeling. The present study investigates the potential...... rainfall and subsequently the simulated hydrological responses. A headwater catchment located in western Denmark is chosen as the study site. Two hydrological models are built using the MIKE SHE code, where they have identical model structures expect for the rainfall forcing: one model is based on rain...... gauge interpolated rainfall, while the other is based on radar QPE which is a combination of both radar and rain gauge information. The two hydrological models are inversely calibrated and then validated against field observations. The model results show that the improvement introduced by using radar...

  14. Improvement of Continuous Hydrologic Models and HMS SMA Parameters Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian Zadeh, Mehdi; Zia Hosseinipour, E.; Abghari, Hirad; Nikian, Ashkan; Shaeri Karimi, Sara; Moradzadeh Azar, Foad

    2010-05-01

    Hydrological models can help us to predict stream flows and associated runoff volumes of rainfall events within a watershed. There are many different reasons why we need to model the rainfall-runoff processes of for a watershed. However, the main reason is the limitation of hydrological measurement techniques and the costs of data collection at a fine scale. Generally, we are not able to measure all that we would like to know about a given hydrological systems. This is very particularly the case for ungauged catchments. Since the ultimate aim of prediction using models is to improve decision-making about a hydrological problem, therefore, having a robust and efficient modeling tool becomes an important factor. Among several hydrologic modeling approaches, continuous simulation has the best predictions because it can model dry and wet conditions during a long-term period. Continuous hydrologic models, unlike event based models, account for a watershed's soil moisture balance over a long-term period and are suitable for simulating daily, monthly, and seasonal streamflows. In this paper, we describe a soil moisture accounting (SMA) algorithm added to the hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) computer program. As is well known in the hydrologic modeling community one of the ways for improving a model utility is the reduction of input parameters. The enhanced model developed in this study is applied to Khosrow Shirin Watershed, located in the north-west part of Fars Province in Iran, a data limited watershed. The HMS SMA algorithm divides the potential path of rainfall onto a watershed into five zones. The results showed that the output of HMS SMA is insensitive with the variation of many parameters such as soil storage and soil percolation rate. The study's objective is to remove insensitive parameters from the model input using Multi-objective sensitivity analysis. Keywords: Continuous Hydrologic Modeling, HMS SMA, Multi-objective sensitivity analysis, SMA Parameters

  15. Population Models for Stream Fish Response to Habitat and Hydrologic Alteration: the CVI Watershed Tool. EPA/600/R-04/190

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models that predict the responses of fish populations and communities to key habitat characteristics are necessary for CVIs watershed management goals, for determining where to restore and how, as well as evaluating the most probable outcome.

  16. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brutsaert, Wilfried

    2005-08-01

    Water in its different forms has always been a source of wonder, curiosity and practical concern for humans everywhere. Hydrology - An Introduction presents a coherent introduction to the fundamental principles of hydrology, based on the course that Wilfried Brutsaert has taught at Cornell University for the last thirty years. Hydrologic phenomena are dealt with at spatial and temporal scales at which they occur in nature. The physics and mathematics necessary to describe these phenomena are introduced and developed, and readers will require a working knowledge of calculus and basic fluid mechanics. The book will be invaluable as a textbook for entry-level courses in hydrology directed at advanced seniors and graduate students in physical science and engineering. In addition, the book will be more broadly of interest to professional scientists and engineers in hydrology, environmental science, meteorology, agronomy, geology, climatology, oceanology, glaciology and other earth sciences. Emphasis on fundamentals Clarification of the underlying physical processes Applications of fluid mechanics in the natural environment

  17. A comparison of hydrological deformation using GPS and global hydrological model for the Eurasian plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhen; Yue, Jianping; Li, Wang; Lu, Dekai; Li, Xiaogen

    2017-08-01

    The 0.5° × 0.5° gridded hydrological loading from Global Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM) mass distributions is adopted for 32 GPS sites on the Eurasian plate from January 2010 to January 2014. When the heights of these sites that have been corrected for the effects of non-tidal atmospheric and ocean loading are adjusted by the hydrological loading deformation, more than one third of the root-mean-square (RMS) values of the GPS height variability become larger. After analyzing the results by continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet transform coherence (WTC), we confirm that hydrological loading primarily contributes to the annual variations in GPS heights. Further, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) is used to investigate the relative phase between the time series of GPS heights and hydrological deformation, and it is indicated that the annual oscillations in the two time series are physically related for some sites; other geophysical effect, GPS systematic errors and hydrological modeling errors could result in the phase asynchrony between GPS and hydrological loading signals for the other sites. Consequently, the phase asynchrony confirms that the annual fluctuations in GPS observations result from a combination of geophysical signals and systematic errors.

  18. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenbies, Mark H.; Hughes, W. Brian

    2000-01-01

    Hydrologic process are the main determinants of the type of wetland located on a site. Precipitation, groundwater, or flooding interact with soil properties and geomorphic setting to yield a complex matrix of conditions that control groundwater flux, water storage and discharge, water chemistry, biotic productivity, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycling. Hydroperiod affects many abiotic factors that in turn determine plant and animal species composition, biodiversity, primary and secondary productivity, accumulation, of organic matter, and nutrient cycling. Because the hydrologic regime has a major influence on wetland functioning, understanding how hydrologic changes influence ecosystem processes is essential, especially in light of the pressures placed on remaining wetlands by society's demands for water resources and by potential global changes in climate.

  19. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth J. Wenger; Charles H. Luce; Alan F. Hamlet; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville

    2010-01-01

    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe...

  20. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to pi

  1. Radar hydrology principles, models, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Yang

    2014-01-01

    ""This is the first book on radar hydrology written by hydrologists. Whereas the excellent knowledge of radar technology by the authors permits an adequate coverage of the principles of rainfall rate estimation by radar, their hydrological background allows them to provide a unique message on the benefits (and on the remaining challenges) in exploiting radar techniques in hydrology. … In a clear and concise manner, the book combines topics from different scientific disciplines into a unified approach aiming to guide the reader through the requirements, strengths, and pitfalls of the applica

  2. Synchronising data sources and filling gaps by global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimentel, Rafael; Crochemore, Louise; Hasan, Abdulghani; Pineda, Luis; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit

    2017-04-01

    considered as forced point. In the case of lakes, some updating relating with location and area, of GLWD was done using esa (European Space Agency) gridded water bodies dataset. Many of the original lakes were shifted in relation with topography and some of them change their extension since the creation of the database. Moreover, the location of the outlet of all these lakes was also calculated. A new definition of global floodplain areas was also included. The land covers provided by ESA and some elevation criteria were used to define elevation land classes (ELC) using for the definition of the properties of each one of the proposed subbasin. All these new features: a) the inclusion of river width in the delineation of the subbasin, going further in the consideration of river shape; b) the merging of several data bases of gauging stations of river flow into an extended global dataset; c) coherent location of the lakes, river networks and floodplains; and d) a new definition of hydrological response units also considering elevation of the subbasins, will contribute to a better implementation of global hydrological models. The first results of world-wide HYPE will be shown but the model will yet not be fully calibrated using multi-sources of observed data and information. The ambition is to receive a global scale model which can also be useful at local scales. Starting with the global picture and then going into the details.

  3. Hydrological modelling of the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Suprit, K.

    A hydrological modelling framework was assembled for simulating discharges of the west-coast rivers of India. The framework is applied to the Mandovi river, Goa, a typical west-coast river. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation...

  4. ZONE package of the Central Valley Hydrologic Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset defines the model grid, active cells in model layers 2 and 3, and geologic province arrays of the ZONE package used in the transient hydrologic...

  5. Effects of modeling decisions on cold region hydrological model performance: snow, soil and streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musselman, Keith; Clark, Martyn; Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Nijssen, Bart; Arnold, Jeffrey

    2017-04-01

    Cold regions are characterized by intense spatial gradients in climate, vegetation and soil properties that determine the complex spatiotemporal patterns of snowpack evolution, frozen soil dynamics, catchment connectivity, and streamflow. These spatial gradients pose unique challenges for hydrological models, including: 1) how the spatial variability of the physical processes are best represented across a hierarchy of scales, and 2) what algorithms and parameter sets best describe the biophysical and hydrological processes at the spatial scale of interest. To address these topics, we apply the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) to simulate hydrological processes at the Caribou - Poker Creeks Research Watershed in the Alaskan sub-arctic Boreal forest. The site is characterized by numerous gauged headwater catchments ranging in size from 5 sq. km to 106 sq. km with varying extents (3% to 53%) of discontinuous permafrost that permits a multi-scale paired watershed analysis of the hydrological impacts of frozen soils. We evaluate the effects of model decisions on the skill of SUMMA to simulate observed snow and soil dynamics, and the spatial integration of these processes as catchment streamflow. Decisions such as the number of soil layers, total soil column depth, and vertical soil discretization are shown to have profound impacts on the simulation of seasonal active layer dynamics. Decisions on the spatial organization (lateral connectivity, representation of riparian response units, and the spatial discretization of the hydrological landscape) are shown to be as important as accurate snowpack and soil process representation in the simulation of streamflow. The work serves to better inform hydrological model decisions for cold region hydrologic evaluation and to improve predictive capacity for water resource planning.

  6. Vermont "Hydrologically Corrected" Digital Elevation Model (VTHYDRODEM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — VTHYDRODEM was created to produce a "hydrologically correct" DEM, compliant with the Vermont Hydrography Dataset (VHD) in support of the "flow regime" project whose...

  7. Hydrologic response of northern wetlands to silvicultural water management systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trettin, C.C.

    1994-09-01

    Two types of water management systems are used to ameliorate saturated soil conditions which limit silvicultural operations and site productivity in northern wetlands. The pattern ditch system is an intensive drainage network designed to regulate water table depth in peat soils. The prescription drainage system is a low-intensity drainage system that is used to develop apparent drainage patterns in mineral and histic-mineral soils. These water management systems may either increase or decrease peak flow, base flow, and the duration of peak flow events, depending on drainage system design, climate, season, site characteristics, and land use. The most common hydrologic response to drainage is an increase in peak flow and base flow, and an increase in annual runoff. The effect of wetland drainage on watershed hydrology depends on the proportion of the watershed drained. Drainage may also affect water quality, nutrient cycling, vegetation composition and structure.

  8. Hydrological Response to ~30 years of Agricultural Surface Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulia Sofia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Amongst human practices, agricultural surface-water management systems represent some of the largest integrated engineering works that shaped floodplains during history, directly or indirectly affecting the landscape. As a result of changes in agricultural practices and land use, many drainage networks have changed producing a greater exposure to flooding with a broad range of impacts on society, also because of climate inputs coupling with the human drivers. This research focuses on three main questions: which kind of land use changes related to the agricultural practices have been observed in the most recent years (~30 years? How does the influence on the watershed response to land use and land cover changes depend on the rainfall event characteristics and soil conditions, and what is their related significance? The investigation presented in this work includes modelling the water infiltration due to the soil properties and analysing the distributed water storage offered by the agricultural drainage system in a study area in Veneto (north-eastern Italy. The results show that economic changes control the development of agro-industrial landscapes, with effects on the hydrological response. Key elements that can enhance or reduce differences are the antecedent soil conditions and the climate characteristics. Criticalities should be expected for intense and irregular rainfall events, and for events that recurrently happen. Agricultural areas might be perceived to be of low priority when it comes to public funding of flood protection, compared to the priority given to urban ones. These outcomes highlight the importance of understanding how agricultural practices can be the driver of or can be used to avoid, or at least mitigate, flooding. The proposed methods can be valuable tools in evaluating the costs and benefits of the management of water in agriculture to inform better policy decision-making.

  9. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  10. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  11. Comparing Sediment Yield Predictions from Different Hydrologic Modeling Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, T. A.; Kendall, A. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2015-12-01

    Sediment yield, or the delivery of sediment from the landscape to a river, is a difficult process to accurately model. It is primarily a function of hydrology and climate, but influenced by landcover and the underlying soils. These additional factors make it much more difficult to accurately model than water flow alone. It is not intuitive what impact different hydrologic modeling schemes may have on the prediction of sediment yield. Here, two implementations of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) are compared to examine the effects of hydrologic model choice. Both the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Landscape Hydrology Model (LHM) utilize the MUSLE for calculating sediment yield. SWAT is a lumped parameter hydrologic model developed by the USDA, which is commonly used for predicting sediment yield. LHM is a fully distributed hydrologic model developed primarily for integrated surface and groundwater studies at the watershed to regional scale. SWAT and LHM models were developed and tested for two large, adjacent watersheds in the Great Lakes region; the Maumee River and the St. Joseph River. The models were run using a variety of single model and ensemble downscaled climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). The initial results of this comparison are discussed here.

  12. Climate change impact assessment on mountain snow hydrology by water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatti, Asif M.; Koike, Toshio; Shrestha, Maheswor

    2016-12-01

    A water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model with improved snow physics (WEB-DHM-S) was applied to elucidate the impact of climate change on mountain snow hydrology in the Shubuto River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The simulated spatial distribution of snow cover was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day maximum snow-cover extent (MOD10A2) product, which revealed the model's capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variations in snow cover within the study area. Four Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) were selected and the SRESA1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to describe climate predictions in the basin. All AOGCMs predict a future decrease in snowmelt contribution to total discharge 11-22% and an average decrease in SWE of 36%, with a shift in peak SWE by 4-14 days. The shift in runoff regime is broadly consistent between the AOGCMs with snowmelt-induced peak discharge expected to occur on average about two weeks earlier in the future hydrological year. The warming climate will drive a shift in runoff regime from a combined rainfall- and snowmelt-driven regime to one with a reduced contribution from snowmelt. The results of the study revealed that the model could be successfully applicable on the basin scale to simulate river discharge and snow processes and to investigate the effect of climate change on hydrological processes. This research contributes to improve the understanding of basin hydrological responses and the pace of change associated with climate variability.

  13. A double continuum hydrological model for glacier applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Fleurian, B.; Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Durand, G.; Le Meur, E.; Mair, D.; Råback, P.

    2014-01-01

    The flow of glaciers and ice streams is strongly influenced by the presence of water at the interface between ice and bed. In this paper, a hydrological model evaluating the subglacial water pressure is developed with the final aim of estimating the sliding velocities of glaciers. The global model fully couples the subglacial hydrology and the ice dynamics through a water-dependent friction law. The hydrological part of the model follows a double continuum approach which relies on the use of porous layers to compute water heads in inefficient and efficient drainage systems. This method has the advantage of a relatively low computational cost that would allow its application to large ice bodies such as Greenland or Antarctica ice streams. The hydrological model has been implemented in the finite element code Elmer/Ice, which simultaneously computes the ice flow. Herein, we present an application to the Haut Glacier d'Arolla for which we have a large number of observations, making it well suited to the purpose of validating both the hydrology and ice flow model components. The selection of hydrological, under-determined parameters from a wide range of values is guided by comparison of the model results with available glacier observations. Once this selection has been performed, the coupling between subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics is undertaken throughout a melt season. Results indicate that this new modelling approach for subglacial hydrology is able to reproduce the broad temporal and spatial patterns of the observed subglacial hydrological system. Furthermore, the coupling with the ice dynamics shows good agreement with the observed spring speed-up.

  14. A subglacial hydrological model dedicated to glacier sliding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. de Fleurian

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The flow of glaciers and ice-streams is strongly influenced by the presence of water at the interface between ice and bedrock. In this paper, a hydrological model evaluating the subglacial water pressure is developed with the final aim of estimating the sliding velocities of glaciers. The global model fully couples the subglacial hydrology and the ice dynamics through a water-dependent friction law. The hydrological part of the model follows a double continuum approach which relies on the use of porous layers to compute water heads in inefficient and efficient drainage systems. This method has the advantage of a relatively low computational cost that would allow its application to large ice bodies such as Greenland or Antarctica ice-streams. The hydrological model has been implemented in the finite element code Elmer/Ice, which simultaneously computes the ice flow. Herein, we present an application to the Haut Glacier d'Arolla for which we have a large number of observations, making it well suited to the purpose of validating both the hydrology and ice flow model components. The selection of hydrological, under-determined parameters from a wide range of values is guided by comparison of the model results with available glacier observations. Once this selection has been performed, the coupling between subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics is undertaken throughout a melt season. Results indicate that this new modelling approach for subglacial hydrology is able to reproduce the broad temporal and spatial patterns of the observed subglacial hydrological system. Furthermore, the coupling with the ice dynamics shows good agreement with the observed spring speed-up.

  15. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  16. Distributed lag models for hydrological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushworth, Alastair M; Bowman, Adrian W; Brewer, Mark J; Langan, Simon J

    2013-06-01

    The distributed lag model (DLM), used most prominently in air pollution studies, finds application wherever the effect of a covariate is delayed and distributed through time. We specify modified formulations of DLMs to provide computationally attractive, flexible varying-coefficient models that are applicable in any setting in which lagged covariates are regressed on a time-dependent response. We investigate the application of such models to rainfall and river flow and in particular their role in understanding the impact of hidden variables at work in river systems. We apply two models to data from a Scottish mountain river, and we fit to some simulated data to check the efficacy of our model approach. During heavy rainfall conditions, changes in the influence of rainfall on flow arise through a complex interaction between antecedent ground wetness and a time-delay in rainfall. The models identify subtle changes in responsiveness to rainfall, particularly in the location of peak influence in the lag structure.

  17. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud

    2015-01-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  18. Hydrological modeling of the Jiaoyi watershed (China) using HSPF model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001-2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R (2)), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin.

  19. Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China Using HSPF Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-An Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF, was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, coefficient of correlation (R2, and the relative error (RE. The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin.

  20. Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.

    2004-01-01

    This study present an investigation of the newly released 18 monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin space-crafts with emphasis on the global scale annual gravity field variations observed from GRACE and modeled from hydrological models as annual changes in terrestrial water storage....... Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...

  1. Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.

    2004-01-01

    This study present an investigation of the newly released 18 monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin space-crafts with emphasis on the global scale annual gravity field variations observed from GRACE and modeled from hydrological models as annual changes in terrestrial water storage....... Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... variation in gravity from GRACE is around 0.4 µGal (0.9 cm water layer thickness) on 2000 km length scales. This makes the GRACE observations of terrestrial water storage on global annual scales more accurate than present-day hydrological models....

  2. Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Mayzonee Ligaray; Hanna Kim; Suthipong Sthiannopkao; Seungwon Lee; Kyung Hwa Cho; Joon Ha Kim

    2015-01-01

    The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model prod...

  3. Channel response to a new hydrological regime in southwestern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callow, J. N.; Smettem, K. R. J.

    2007-02-01

    The Kent River flows from semi-arid headwaters in the agricultural (wheatbelt) region of Western Australia to a wetter and forested lower-catchment. It is set in an atypical fluvial environment, with rainfall decreasing inland towards a low-relief upper catchment. Replacement of native deep-rooted perennial vegetation with shallow-rooted seasonal crops has altered the hydrology of the upper catchment. Clearing for agriculture has also increased recharge of regional groundwater systems causing groundwater to rise and mobilise salt stores. This has increased stream salinity which has degradation riparian vegetation and decreased flow resistance. Elevated groundwater has also affected streamflow, increasing flow duration and annual discharge. The altered hydrological regime has affected geomorphic stability, resulting in channel responses that include incision and removal of uncohesive material. Channel response is variable, showing a high dependence on channel morphotype, channel boundary material and severity of salinity (degree of vegetation degradation). Response in confined reaches bounded by sandy material has been characterised by minor lateral bank erosion. In the fine-grained, wider, low-gradient reaches, mid-channel islands have been stripped of sandy sediment where vegetation has degraded. Following an initial period of high erosion rates in these reaches, the channel is now slowly adjusting to a new set of boundary conditions. The variable response has significant implications for management of salt affected rivers in southwestern Australia.

  4. Climate model uncertainty vs. conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. O. Sonnenborg

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including CO2 emission scenario, climate model, downscaling and impact model. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B. The changes from the reference period (1991–2010 to the future period (2081–2100 in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty on the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

  5. Modeling the hydrological patterns on Pantanal wetlands, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, A. A.; Cuartas, A.; Coe, M. T.; Koumrouyan, A.; Panday, P. K.; Lefebvre, P.; Padovani, C.; Costa, M. H.; de Oliveira, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Pantanal of Brazil is one of the world's largest wetland regions. It is located within the 370,000 km2 Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). In wet years almost 15% of the total area of the basin can be flooded (approximately 53,000 km2). The hydrological cycle is particularly important in the Pantanal in the transport of materials, and the transfer of energy between atmospheric, aquatic, and terrestrial systems. The INLAND (Integrated Land Surface Model) terrestrial ecosystem model is coupled with the THMB hydrological model to examine the hydrological balance and water dynamics for this region. The INLAND model is based on the IBIS dynamic vegetation model, while THMB represents the river, wetland and lake dynamics of the land surface. The modeled hydrological components are validated with surface and satellite-based estimates of precipitation (gridded observations from CRU v. 3.21, reanalysis data from ERA-interim, and TRMM estimates), evapotranspiration (MODIS and Land Flux-Eval dataset), total runoff (discharge data from ANA-Agência Nacional das Águas - Brazil), and terrestrial water storage (GRACE). Results show that the coupled hydrological model adequately represents the water cycle components, the river discharge and flooded areas. Model simulations are further used to study the influences of climatic variations on the hydrological components, river network, and the inundated areas in the Pantanal.

  6. Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, Martyn P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Fan, Ying [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick New Jersey USA; Lawrence, David M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Adam, Jennifer C. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman Washington USA; Bolster, Diogo [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend Indiana USA; Gochis, David J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Hooper, Richard P. [The Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc.; Kumar, Mukesh [Nichols Schools of Environment, Duke University, Durham North Carolina USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Mackay, D. Scott [Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, Buffalo New York USA; Maxwell, Reed M. [Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden Colorado USA; Shen, Chaopeng [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, State College Pennsylvania USA; Swenson, Sean C. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Zeng, Xubin [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson Arizona USA

    2015-08-21

    Many of the scientific and societal challenges in understanding and preparing for global environmental change rest upon our ability to understand and predict the water cycle change at large river basin, continent, and global scales. However, current large-scale models, such as the land components of Earth System Models (ESMs), do not yet represent the terrestrial water cycle in a fully integrated manner or resolve the finer-scale processes that can dominate large-scale water budgets. This paper reviews the current representation of hydrologic processes in ESMs and identifies the key opportunities for improvement. This review suggests that (1) the development of ESMs has not kept pace with modeling advances in hydrology, both through neglecting key processes (e.g., groundwater) and neglecting key aspects of spatial variability and hydrologic connectivity; and (2) many modeling advances in hydrology can readily be incorporated into ESMs and substantially improve predictions of the water cycle. Accelerating modeling advances in ESMs requires comprehensive hydrologic benchmarking activities, in order to systematically evaluate competing modeling alternatives, understand model weaknesses, and prioritize model development needs. This demands stronger collaboration, both through greater engagement of hydrologists in ESM development and through more detailed evaluation of ESM processes in research watersheds. Advances in the representation of hydrologic process in ESMs can substantially improve energy, carbon and nutrient cycle prediction capabilities through the fundamental role the water cycle plays in regulating these cycles.

  7. Hydrological response of a subhumid watershed after a greening-up process, an example in South East Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zema, Demetrio Antonio; Cataldo, Maria Francesca; Denisi, Pietro; Martino, Domenico; de Vente, Joris; Boix-Fayos, Carolina

    2016-04-01

    Many watersheds in the Mediterranean are subject to land use changes and hydrological control works that can have important effects on their hydrological and geomorphological response. In such contexts, a better understanding of the hydrological processes and their linkage to the geomorphic evolutionary trends would help territory planners and other stakeholders to face off soil and water body degradation, optimising efficiency and cheapness of planned interventions. This study focuses on a catchment in SE Spain, Upper Taibilla (320 km2, Segura basin), which suffered an important greening-up process with increase of forest cover, decrease of agriculture activities and installation of hydrological control works during the second half of XX century. The objective was to characterize the changes in the hydrological response of the catchment in relation to the changes in their drainage area. Firstly, the actual hydrological response to precipitation was analysed at aggregated (i.e. monthly, seasonal and annual) scale, using 15 years of the most recent runoff observations collected at the outlet of Upper Taibilla river (specifically at the inlet of Taibilla reservoir). Based on the actual distribution of soil land use and texture, the studied sub-basins were discretised by a GIS software in a system of homogenous hydrological units, in order to identify the most critical areas producing surface runoff. This actual aptitude to produce runoff was compared to the sub-basin hydrological response of 1930-1940s (that is before reforestation works and check-dam installation), in order to analyse the eventual presence of evolutionary trends in basin hydrology and the whole efficiency of these works in mitigating runoff impacts. Furthermore, considering that computer prediction models are important tools for planning land use changes and other management works in basins, the applicability of two hydrological models for predicting surface runoff in the studied sub-basins was

  8. Evapotranspiration Input Data for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset contains monthly reference evapotranspiration (ETo) data for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM). The Central Valley encompasses an...

  9. California Basin Characterization Model Downscaled Climate and Hydrology

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The California Basin Characterization Model (CA-BCM 2014) dataset provides historical and projected climate and hydrologic surfaces for the region that encompasses...

  10. On hydrological model complexity, its geometrical interpretations and prediction uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arkesteijn, E.C.M.M.; Pande, S.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of hydrological model complexity can aid selection of an optimal prediction model out of a set of available models. Optimal model selection is formalized as selection of the least complex model out of a subset of models that have lower empirical risk. This may be considered equivalent to

  11. Responses of diatom communities to hydrological processes during rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Naicheng; Faber, Claas; Ulrich, Uta; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-04-01

    The importance of diatoms as a tracer of hydrological processes has been recently recognized (Pfister et al. 2009, Pfister et al. 2011, Tauro et al. 2013). However, diatom variations in a short-term scale (e.g., sub-daily) during rainfall events have not been well documented yet. In this study, rainfall event-based diatom samples were taken at the outlet of the Kielstau catchment (50 km2), a lowland catchment in northern Germany. A total of nine rainfall events were caught from May 2013 to April 2014. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) revealed that diatom communities of different events were well separated along NMDS axis I and II, indicating a remarkable temporal variation. By correlating water level (a proxy of discharge) and different diatom indices, close relationships were found. For example, species richness, biovolume (μm3), Shannon diversity and moisture index01 (%, classified according to van Dam et al. 1994) were positively related with water level at the beginning phase of the rainfall (i.e. increasing limb of discharge peak). However, in contrast, during the recession limb of the discharge peak, diatom indices showed distinct responses to water level declines in different rainfall events. These preliminary results indicate that diatom indices are highly related to hydrological processes. The next steps will include finding out the possible mechanisms of the above phenomena, and exploring the contributions of abiotic variables (e.g., hydrologic indices, nutrients) to diatom community patterns. Based on this and ongoing studies (Wu et al. unpublished data), we will incorporate diatom data into End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) and select the tracer set that is best suited for separation of different runoff components in our study catchment. Keywords: Diatoms, Rainfall event, Non-metric multidimensional scaling, Hydrological process, Indices References: Pfister L, McDonnell JJ, Wrede S, Hlúbiková D, Matgen P, Fenicia F, Ector L, Hoffmann L

  12. Hydrologic and geochemical modeling of a karstic Mediterranean watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. P. Nikolaidis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The SWAT model was modified to simulate the hydrologic and chemical response of karstic systems and assess the impacts of land use management and climate change of an intensively managed Mediterranean watershed in Crete, Greece. A methodology was developed for the determination of the extended karst area contributing to the spring flow as well as the degree of dilution of nitrates due to permanent karst water volume. The modified SWAT model has been able to capture the temporal variability of both karst flow and surface runoff using high frequency monitoring data collected since 2004 in addition to long term flow time series collected since 1973. The overall hydrologic budget of the karst was estimated and its evaporative losses were calculated to be 28% suggesting a very high rate of karst infiltration. Nitrate chemistry of the karst was simulated by calibrating a dilution factor allowing for the estimation of the total karstic groundwater volume to approximately 500 million m3 of reserve water. The nitrate simulation results suggested a significant impact of livestock grazing on the karstic groundwater and on surface water quality. Finally, simulation results for a set of climate change scenarios suggested a 17% decrease in precipitation, 8% decrease in ET and 22% decrease in flow in 2030–2050 compared to 2010–2020. A validated tool for integrated water management of karst areas has been developed, providing policy makers an instrument for water management that could tackle the increasing water scarcity in the island.

  13. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Cristiano

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

  14. Inverse hydrological modelling of spatio-temporal rainfall patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundmann, Jens; Hörning, Sebastian; Bárdossy, András

    2016-04-01

    Distributed hydrological models are commonly used for simulating the non-linear response of a watershed to rainfall events for addressing different hydrological properties of the landscape. Such models are driven by spatial rainfall patterns for consecutive time steps, which are normally generated from point measurements using spatial interpolation methods. However, such methods fail in reproducing the true spatio-temporal rainfall patterns especially in data scarce regions with poorly gauged catchments or for highly dynamic, small scaled rainstorms which are not well recorded by existing monitoring networks. Consequently, uncertainties are associated with poorly identified spatio-temporal rainfall distribution in distributed rainfall-runoff-modelling since the amount of rainfall received by a catchment as well as the dynamics of the runoff generation of flood waves are underestimated. For addressing these challenges a novel methodology for inverse hydrological modelling is proposed using a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo framework. Thereby, potential candidates of spatio-temporal rainfall patterns are generated and selected according their ability to reproduce the observed surface runoff at the catchment outlet for a given transfer function in a best way. The Methodology combines the concept of random mixing of random spatial fields with a grid-based spatial distributed rainfall runoff model. The conditional target rainfall field is obtained as a linear combination of unconditional spatial random fields. The corresponding weights of the linear combination are selected such that the spatial variability of the rainfall amounts as well as the actual observed rainfall values are reproduced. The functionality of the methodology is demonstrated on a synthetic example. Thereby, the known spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall is reproduced for a given number of point observations of rainfall and the integral catchment response at the catchment outlet for a synthetic catchment

  15. Hydrological Modelling of Mountainous and Glacierised regions under Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious environmental threats that humanity has ever been confronted to. Hydrological models are vital tools to asses its impacts on the water cycle and water resources. The goal of this project is to evaluate and improve the capacity of the HBV model (Hydrologiska Byr°ans Vattenbalansavdelning) in simulating hydrological processes in mountainous and glacierised regions under both the present and future climate. This goal is achieved in two steps: (1) impleme...

  16. Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled

  17. Landscape-based hydrological modelling: Understanding the influence of climate, topography, and vegetation on catchment hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, H.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, a novel landscape-based hydrological model is presented that was developed and tested in numerous catchments around the world with various landscapes and climate conditions. A landscape is considered to consist of a topography and an ecosystem living on it. Firstly, the influence of

  18. On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Voss, F.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2011-01-01

    The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analysis of hydrological extremes is important and requires the adaptation of identification methods used for river

  19. Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled di

  20. Evaluation of satellite rainfall products through hydrologic simulation in a fully distributed hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitew, Menberu M.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2011-06-01

    The goal of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of four global high-resolution satellite rainfall products (CMORPH, TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42, and PERSIANN) through the hydrologic simulation of a 1656 km2 mountainous watershed in the fully distributed MIKE SHE hydrologic model. This study shows that there are significant biases in the satellite rainfall estimates and large variations in rainfall amounts, leading to large variations in hydrologic simulations. The rainfall algorithms that use primarily microwave data (CMORPH and TMPA 3B42RT) show consistent and better performance in streamflow simulation (bias in the order of -53% to -3%, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) from 0.34 to 0.65); the rainfall algorithm that uses primarily infrared data (PERSIANN) shows lower performance (bias from -82% to -3%, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency from -0.39 to 0.43); and the rainfall algorithm that merges the satellite data with rain gage data (TMPA 3B42) shows inconsistencies and the lowest performance (bias from -86% to 0.43%, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency from -0.50 to 0.27). A dilemma between calibrating the hydrologic model with rain gage data and calibrating it with the corresponding satellite rainfall data is presented. Calibrating the model with corresponding satellite rainfall data increases the performance of satellite streamflow simulation compared to the model calibrated with rain gage data, but decreases the performance of satellite evapotranspiration simulation.

  1. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

  2. Integrating fire with hydrological projections: model evaluation to identify uncertainties and tradeoffs in model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, M.; McKenzie, D.

    2013-12-01

    It is imperative for resource managers to understand how a changing climate might modify future watershed and hydrological processes, and such an understanding is incomplete if disturbances such as fire are not integrated with hydrological projections. Can a robust fire spread model be developed that approximates patterns of fire spread in response to varying topography wind patterns, and fuel loads and moistures, without requiring intensive calibration to each new study area or time frame? We assessed the performance of a stochastic model of fire spread (WMFire), integrated with the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), for projecting the effects of climatic change on mountain watersheds. We first use Monte Carlo inference to determine that the fire spread model is able to replicate the spatial pattern of fire spread for a contemporary wildfire in Washington State (the Tripod fire), measured by the lacunarity and fractal dimension of the fire. We then integrate a version of WMFire able to replicate the contemporary wildfire with RHESSys and simulate a New Mexico watershed over the calibration period of RHESSys (1941-1997). In comparing the fire spread model to a single contemporary wildfire we found issues in parameter identifiability for several of the nine parameters, due to model input uncertainty and insensitivity of the mathematical function to certain ranges of the parameter values. Model input uncertainty is caused by the inherent difficulty in reconstructing fuel loads and fuel moistures for a fire event after the fire has occurred, as well as by issues in translating variables relevant to hydrological processes produced by the hydrological model to those known to affect fire spread and fire severity. The first stage in the model evaluation aided the improvement of the model in both of these regards. In transporting the model to a new landscape in order to evaluate fire regimes in addition to patterns of fire spread, we find reasonable

  3. A meteo-hydrological prediction system based on a multi-model approach for precipitation forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Davolio

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The precipitation forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model, even at high resolution, suffers from errors which can be considerable at the scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In the present study, a fraction of the uncertainty related to meteorological prediction is taken into account by implementing a multi-model forecasting approach, aimed at providing multiple precipitation scenarios driving the same hydrological model. Therefore, the estimation of that uncertainty associated with the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF, conveyed by the multi-model ensemble, can be exploited by the hydrological model, propagating the error into the hydrological forecast.

    The proposed meteo-hydrological forecasting system is implemented and tested in a real-time configuration for several episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Reno river basin, a medium-sized basin located in northern Italy (Apennines. These episodes are associated with flood events of different intensity and are representative of different meteorological configurations responsible for severe weather affecting northern Apennines.

    The simulation results show that the coupled system is promising in the prediction of discharge peaks (both in terms of amount and timing for warning purposes. The ensemble hydrological forecasts provide a range of possible flood scenarios that proved to be useful for the support of civil protection authorities in their decision.

  4. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  5. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  6. Modelling of green roof hydrological performance for urban drainage applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Binning, Philip John

    2014-11-01

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for stormwater management and their impact on the urban hydrological cycle can be evaluated by incorporating them into urban drainage models. This paper presents a model of green roof long term and single event hydrological performance. The model includes surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention capacity of the green roof which is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. The runoff from the model is described through a non-linear reservoir approach. The model was calibrated and validated using measurement data from 3 different extensive sedum roofs in Denmark. These data consist of high-resolution measurements of runoff, precipitation and atmospheric variables in the period 2010-2012. The hydrological response of green roofs was quantified based on statistical analysis of the results of a 22-year (1989-2010) continuous simulation with Danish climate data. The results show that during single events, the 10 min runoff intensities were reduced by 10-36% for 5-10 years return period and 40-78% for 0.1-1 year return period; the runoff volumes were reduced by 2-5% for 5-10 years return period and 18-28% for 0.1-1 year return period. Annual runoff volumes were estimated to be 43-68% of the total precipitation. The peak time delay was found to greatly vary from 0 to more than 40 min depending on the type of event, and a general decrease in the time delay was observed for increasing rainfall intensities. Furthermore, the model was used to evaluate the variation of the average annual runoff from green roofs as a function of the total available storage and vegetation type. The results show that even a few millimeters of storage can reduce the mean annual runoff by up to 20% when compared to a traditional roof and that the mean annual runoff is not linearly related to the storage. Green roofs have therefore the potential to be important parts of future urban stormwater management plans.

  7. European Continental Scale Hydrological Model, Limitations and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouholahnejad, E.; Abbaspour, K.

    2014-12-01

    The pressures on water resources due to increasing levels of societal demand, increasing conflict of interest and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers and policymakers in many parts of Europe. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of pressure and uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. On the other hand, the small-scale sectoral structure of water management is now reaching its limits. The integrated management of water in basins requires a new level of consideration where water bodies are to be viewed in the context of the whole river system and managed as a unit within their basins. In this research we present the limitations and challenges of modelling the hydrology of the continent Europe. The challenges include: data availability at continental scale and the use of globally available data, streamgauge data quality and their misleading impacts on model calibration, calibration of large-scale distributed model, uncertainty quantification, and computation time. We describe how to avoid over parameterization in calibration process and introduce a parallel processing scheme to overcome high computation time. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program as an integrated hydrology and crop growth simulator to model water resources of the Europe continent. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals for the period of 1970-2006. The use of a large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation and provides the overall picture of water resources temporal and spatial distribution across the continent. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water

  8. Hydrologic modeling strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    The government of Mauritania is interested in how to maintain hydrologic balance to ensure a long-term stable water supply for minerals-related, domestic, and other purposes. Because of the many complicating and competing natural and anthropogenic factors, hydrologists will perform quantitative analysis with specific objectives and relevant computer models in mind. Whereas various computer models are available for studying water-resource priorities, the success of these models to provide reliable predictions largely depends on adequacy of the model-calibration process. Predictive analysis helps us evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty associated with simulated dependent variables of our calibrated model. In this report, the hydrologic modeling process is reviewed and a strategy summarized for future Mauritanian hydrologic modeling studies.

  9. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

    2013-01-01

    model, HIRHAM. The physics of the coupling is formulated using an energy-based SVAT (land surface) model while the numerical coupling exploits the OpenMI modelling interface. First, some investigations of the applicability of the SVAT model are presented, including our ability to characterise...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...

  10. Coupling Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Models to Estimate PMF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, G.; Weingartner, R.

    2015-12-01

    Most sophisticated probable maximum flood (PMF) estimations derive the PMF from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by applying deterministic hydrologic models calibrated with observed data. This method is based on the assumption that the hydrological system is stationary, meaning that the system behaviour during the calibration period or the calibration event is presumed to be the same as it is during the PMF. However, as soon as a catchment-specific threshold is reached, the system is no longer stationary. At or beyond this threshold, retention areas, new flow paths, and changing runoff processes can strongly affect downstream peak discharge. These effects can be accounted for by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, a technique that is particularly promising when the expected peak discharge may considerably exceed the observed maximum discharge. In such cases, the coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models has the potential to significantly increase the physical plausibility of PMF estimations. This procedure ensures both that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit based on riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered. Our study discusses the prospect of considering retention effects on PMF estimations by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. This method is tested by forcing PREVAH, a semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model, with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to externally force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). Finally, the PMF estimation results obtained using the coupled modelling approach are compared to the results obtained using ordinary hydrologic modelling.

  11. Improving distributed hydrologic modeling and global land cover data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broxton, Patrick

    Distributed models of the land surface are essential for global climate models because of the importance of land-atmosphere exchanges of water, energy, momentum. They are also used for high resolution hydrologic simulation because of the need to capture non-linear responses to spatially variable inputs. Continued improvements to these models, and the data which they use, is especially important given ongoing changes in climate and land cover. In hydrologic models, important aspects are sometimes neglected due to the need to simplify the models for operational simulation. For example, operational flash flood models do not consider the role of snow and are often lumped (i.e. do not discretize a watershed into multiple units, and so do not fully consider the effect of intense, localized rainstorms). To address this deficiency, an overland flow model is coupled with a subsurface flow model to create a distributed flash flood forecasting system that can simulate flash floods that involve rain on snow. The model is intended for operational use, and there are extensive algorithms to incorporate high-resolution hydrometeorologic data, to assist in the calibration of the models, and to run the model in real time. A second study, which is designed to improve snow simulation in forested environments, demonstrates the importance of explicitly representing a near canopy environment in snow models, instead of only representing open and canopy covered areas (i.e. with % canopy fraction), as is often done. Our modeling, which uses canopy structure information from Aerial Laser Survey Mapping at 1 meter resolution, suggests that areas near trees have more net snow water input than surrounding areas because of the lack of snow interception, shading by the trees, and the effects of wind. In addition, the greatest discrepancy between our model simulations that explicitly represent forest structure and those that do not occur in areas with more canopy edges. In addition, two value

  12. Hydrologic response to valley-scale structure in alpine headwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weekes, Anne A.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Montgomery, David R.; Woodward, Andrea; Bolton, Susan M.

    2015-01-01

    Few systematic studies of valley-scale geomorphic drivers of streamflow regimes in complex alpine headwaters have compared response between catchments. As a result, little guidance is available for regional-scale hydrological research and monitoring efforts that include assessments of ecosystem function. Physical parameters such as slope, elevation range, drainage area and bedrock geology are often used to stratify differences in streamflow response between sampling sites within an ecoregion. However, these metrics do not take into account geomorphic controls on streamflow specific to glaciated mountain headwaters. The coarse-grained nature of depositional features in alpine catchments suggests that these landforms have little water storage capacity because hillslope runoff moves rapidly just beneath the rock mantle before emerging in fluvial networks. However, recent studies show that a range of depositional features, including talus slopes, protalus ramparts and 'rock-ice' features may have more storage capacity than previously thought.

  13. Hydrological responses to climate changes in a headwater watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lívia Alves Alvarenga

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Climate change impacts need to be considered in water resource planning. This work aims to study of the impacts climate change on Lavrinha headwater watershed, located in the Mantiqueira Range, southeastern Brazil. The impacts from climate change (RCP 8.5 scenario in the Lavrinha watershed runoff were analyzed based on the "Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model" (DHSVM, forced with the climate simulated for this future climate change scenario. These simulations, in turn, were generated by the Eta regional climate model coupled to Global Climate Model (GCM HadGEM2-ES for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods. The results of this study showed that the runoff is very sensitive to rising temperatures and reduced precipitation, both projected for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The hydrological simulation projected a reduction in the monthly streamflow between 20 and 77% over the twenty-first century (2011-2099, corresponding to drastic reductions in the runoff behavior and consequently in the water production capacity of the region.

  14. On the importance of hysteresis in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharari, S.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Hysteresis is a widely observed phenomenon in hydrology and beyond at a range of spatio-temporal scales. Despite significant research efforts, hysteretic behaviors and their implications for hydrologic modelling and prediction have remained poorly defined and understood. The current state of the art is that almost all practical models in use do not include any hysteretic component or relationship that directly represents such behaviors. In this study, we review different types of hysteretic behaviors in hydrology and formulate a general definition for hysteresis that might be useful in the context of hydrological modeling. We show how hysteresis can be the result of missing (or ignoring) dimensions/physics that govern a real system. Further, using existing strategies for hysteresis modeling from other disciples, we evaluate to what extent the addition of hysteretic components to a hydrological model (such as soil moisture and soil suction head - soil hydraulic conductivity) change the model performance and associated uncertainties. Our analyses also show that properly designed model structures can largely compensate for the lack of hysteretic components in models and allow mimicking the observed hysteretic behaviors.

  15. Murugesu Sivapalan receives 2010 Hydrologic Sciences Award: Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2011-06-01

    Murugesu Sivapalan received the 2010 Hydrologic Sciences Award at the 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, held 13-17 December in San Francisco, Calif. The award is for outstanding contributions to the science of hydrology.

  16. airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

  17. A conceptual model of the hydrological influence of fissures on landslide activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Krzeminska

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological processes control the behaviour of many unstable slopes, and their importance for landslide activity is generally accepted. The presence of fissures influences the storage capacity of a soil and affects the infiltration processes of rainfall. The effectiveness of the fissure network depends upon fissure size, their spatial distribution, and connectivity. Moreover, fissure connectivity is a dynamic characteristic, depending on the degree of saturation of the medium.

    This research aims to investigate the influence of the fissure network on hydrological responses of a landslide. Special attention is given to spatial and temporal variations in fissure connectivity, which makes fissures act both as preferential flow paths for deep infiltration (disconnected fissures and as lateral groundwater drains (connected fissures. To this end, the hydrological processes that control the exchange of water between the fissure network and the matrix have been included in a spatially distributed hydrological and slope stability model. The ensuing feedbacks in landslide hydrology were explored by running the model with one year of meteorological forcing. The effect of dynamic fissure connectivity was evaluated by comparing simulations with static fissure patterns to simulations in which these patterns change as a function of soil saturation. The results highlight that fissure connectivity and fissure permeability control the water distribution within landslides. Making the fissure connectivity function of soil moisture results in composite behaviour spanning the above end members and introduces stronger seasonality of the hydrological responses.

  18. Strategies for using remotely sensed data in hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, E. L.; Keefer, T. N.; Johnson, E. R. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    Present and planned remote sensing capabilities were evaluated. The usefulness of six remote sensing capabilities (soil moisture, land cover, impervious area, areal extent of snow cover, areal extent of frozen ground, and water equivalent of the snow cover) with seven hydrologic models (API, CREAMS, NWSRFS, STORM, STANFORD, SSARR, and NWSRFS Snowmelt) were reviewed. The results indicate remote sensing information has only limited value for use with the hydrologic models in their present form. With minor modifications to the models the usefulness would be enhanced. Specific recommendations are made for incorporating snow covered area measurements in the NWSRFS Snowmelt model. Recommendations are also made for incorporating soil moisture measurements in NWSRFS. Suggestions are made for incorporating snow covered area, soil moisture, and others in STORM and SSARR. General characteristics of a hydrologic model needed to make maximum use of remotely sensed data are discussed. Suggested goals for improvements in remote sensing for use in models are also established.

  19. Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoof, C.R.; Vervoort, R.W.; Iwema, J.; Elsen, van den H.G.M.; Ferreira, A.J.D.; Ritsema, C.J.

    2012-01-01

    Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We p

  20. Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoof, C.R.; Vervoort, R.W.; Iwema, J.; Elsen, van den H.G.M.; Ferreira, A.J.D.; Ritsema, C.J.

    2012-01-01

    Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We

  1. Multivariate data assimilation in an integrated hydrological modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Henrik; Zhang, Donghua; Ridler, Marc; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    The immensely increasing availability of in-situ and remotely sensed hydrological data has offered new opportunities for monitoring and forecasting water resources by combining observation data with hydrological modelling. Efficient multivariate data assimilation in integrated groundwater - surface water hydrological modelling systems are required to fully utilize and optimally combine the different types of observation data. A particular challenge is the assimilation of observation data of different hydrological variables from different monitoring instruments, representing a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and different levels of uncertainty. A multivariate data assimilation framework has been implemented in the MIKE SHE integrated hydrological modelling system by linking the MIKE SHE code with a generic data assimilation library. The data assimilation library supports different state-of-the-art ensemble-based Kalman filter methods, and includes procedures for localisation, joint state, parameter and model error estimation, and bias-aware filtering. Furthermore, it supports use of different stochastic error models to describe model and measurement errors. Results are presented that demonstrate the use of the data assimilation framework for assimilation of different data types in a catchment-scale MIKE SHE model.

  2. Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

  3. Modeling the eco-hydrologic response of a Mediterranean type ecosystem to the combined impacts of projected climate change and altered fire frequencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tague, Christina; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Hope, Allen

    2009-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) project moderate warming along with increases in atmospheric CO2 for California Mediterranean type ecosystems (MTEs). In water-limited ecosystems, vegetation acts as an important control on streamflow and responds to soil moisture availability. Fires are also key...... and precipitation scenarios using RHESSys, a spatially distributed model of carbon–water interactions. We examine the direct impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation productivity and impacts associated with higher water-use efficiency under elevated atmospheric CO2. Results suggest that for most...... frequency will also impact summer streamflow but these will be small relative to changes due to vegetation productivity. Results suggest that monitoring vegetation responses to a changing climate should be a focus of climate change assessment for California MTEs....

  4. Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-04-01

    Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

  5. Stochastic modeling of interannual variation of hydrologic variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dralle, David; Karst, Nathaniel; Müller, Marc; Vico, Giulia; Thompson, Sally E.

    2017-07-01

    Quantifying the interannual variability of hydrologic variables (such as annual flow volumes, and solute or sediment loads) is a central challenge in hydrologic modeling. Annual or seasonal hydrologic variables are themselves the integral of instantaneous variations and can be well approximated as an aggregate sum of the daily variable. Process-based, probabilistic techniques are available to describe the stochastic structure of daily flow, yet estimating interannual variations in the corresponding aggregated variable requires consideration of the autocorrelation structure of the flow time series. Here we present a method based on a probabilistic streamflow description to obtain the interannual variability of flow-derived variables. The results provide insight into the mechanistic genesis of interannual variability of hydrologic processes. Such clarification can assist in the characterization of ecosystem risk and uncertainty in water resources management. We demonstrate two applications, one quantifying seasonal flow variability and the other quantifying net suspended sediment export.

  6. Determination of spatial scale of response unit for WASSI-C eco–hydrological model—a case study on the upper Zagunao River watershed of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning Liu; Peng-Sen Sun; Shi-Rong Liu; Ge Sun

    2013-01-01

    Main publication is written in Chinese.Aims: Optimal spatial scale of hydrological response unit (HRU) is a precondition for eco-hydrological modeling as it is essential to improve accuracy. Our objective was to evaluate the spatial scale of HRU for application of the WASSSI-C model.Methods: We determined the best HRU scale for the eco-...

  7. Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

  8. Integrated Response of Grassland Biomass Along Co-varying Gradients of Climate and Grazing Management Using an Eco-hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Tague, N.; Kruger, C. E.; Johnson, K.; Adam, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    Grasses in rangeland ecosystems cover a large portion of the contiguous United States and are used to support the production of livestock. These grasslands experience a wide range of precipitation and temperature regimes, as well as management activities like grazing. Assessing the coupled response of biomass to both climatic change and human activities is important to decision makers to ensure the sustainable management of their lands. The objective of this study is to examine the sensitivity of biomass under co-varying conditions of climate and grazing management. For this, we used the Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), a physically-based model that simulates coupled water and biogeochemical processes. We selected representative grassland sites using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system and information on major grass species. Historical data on precipitation, temperature, and grazing patterns (intensity, frequency, duration) were incrementally perturbed to simulate climatic change and possible changes in management. To visualize this multi-dimensional parameter space, we created surface response plots of varying climate and grazing factors for the mean and variance of both aboveground and belowground biomass, as well as the ratio between the two. Mean biomass generally increased with warmer temperatures and decreased with more intense grazing. The sensitivity of biomass (i.e. variance) increased with more extreme perturbations in climate and intense types of grazing management. However, co-varying climate conditions with either grazing intensity, frequency, or duration revealed different biomass responses and tradeoffs. For example, some changes in grazing duration could be reversed by changes in climate. Effects of high intensity grazing could be buffered depending on the timing of grazing (i.e. start/end date). Using simple perturbations with process-based modeling provides useful information for land managers for future planning.

  9. Tuning hydrological models for ecological modeling - improving simulations of low flows critical to stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin; Troldborg, Lars; Boegh, Eva

    2008-01-01

    The consequences of using simulated discharge from a conventional hydrological model as input in stream physical habitat modelling was investigated using output from the Danish national hydrological model and a physical habitat model of three small streams. It was found that low flow simulation...... errors could have large impact on simulation of physical habitat conditions. If these two models are to be used to assess groundwater abstraction impact on physical habitat conditions the hydrological model should be tuned to the purpose...

  10. Tuning hydrological models for ecological modeling - improving simulations of low flows critical to stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin; Troldborg, Lars; Boegh, Eva;

    2008-01-01

    The consequences of using simulated discharge from a conventional hydrological model as input in stream physical habitat modelling was investigated using output from the Danish national hydrological model and a physical habitat model of three small streams. It was found that low flow simulation...... errors could have large impact on simulation of physical habitat conditions. If these two models are to be used to assess groundwater abstraction impact on physical habitat conditions the hydrological model should be tuned to the purpose...

  11. Coupling hydrologic and infectious disease models to explain regional differences in schistosomiasis transmission in southwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remais, Justin; Liang, Song; Spear, Robert C

    2008-04-01

    Rainfall-runoff models have become essential tools for conceptualizing and predicting the response of hydrologic processes to changing environments, but they have rarely been applied to challenges facing health scientists. Yet with their efficient parameterization and modest data requirements, they hold great promise for epidemiological application. A modeling analysis incorporating simple hydrologic constraints on transmission of the human parasite Schistosoma japonicum in southwestern China was conducted by coupling a lumped parameter rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) with a delay-differential equation schistosomiasis transmission model modified to account for channel flows and on-field egg inactivation. Model predictions of prevalence and infection timing agree with observations in the region, which indicate that hydrological differences between sites can lead to pronounced differences in transmission. Channel flows are shown to be important in determining infection intensity and timing in modeled village populations. In the periodic absence of flow, overall transmission intensity is reduced among all modeled risk groups. However, the influence of hydrologic variability was greater on the cercarial stage of the parasite than the miracidial stage, due to the parasite ova's ability to survive dormant on fields between rain events. The predictive power gained from including hydrological data in epidemiological models can improve risk assessments for environmentally mediated diseases, under both long-term climate change scenarios and near-term weather fluctuations.

  12. Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire

  13. Impact of improved snowmelt modelling in a monthly hydrological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folton, Nathalie; Garcia, Florine

    2016-04-01

    The quantification and the management of water resources at the regional scale require hydrological models that are both easy to implement and efficient. To be reliable and robust, these models must be calibrated and validated on a large number of catchments that are representative of various hydro-meteorological conditions, physiographic contexts, and specific hydrological behavior (e.g. mountainous catchments). The GRLoiEau monthly model, with its simple structure and its two free parameters, answer our need of such a simple model. It required the development of a snow routine to model catchments with temporarily snow-covered areas. The snow routine developed here does not claim to represent physical snowmelt processes but rather to simulate them globally on the catchment. The snowmelt equation is based on the degree-day method which is widely used by the hydrological community, in particular in engineering studies (Etchevers 2000). A potential snowmelt (Schaefli et al. 2005) was computed, and the parameters of the snow routine were regionalized for each mountain area. The GRLoiEau parsimonious structure requires meteorological data. They come from the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system SAFRAN, which provides estimations of daily solid and liquid precipitations and temperatures on a regular square grid at the spatial resolution of 8*8 km², throughout France. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated using the formula by Oudin et al. (2005). The aim of this study is to improve the quality of monthly simulations for ungauged basins, in particular for all types of mountain catchments, without increasing the number of free parameters of the model. By using daily SAFRAN data, the production store and snowmelt can be run at a daily time scale. The question then arises whether simulating the monthly flows using a production function at a finer time step would improve the results. And by using the SAFRAN distributed climate series, a distributed approach

  14. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Reusser

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  15. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Zehe

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns, which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  16. Hydrologic Modeling of the White Sands Dune Field, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourret, S. M.; Newton, B. T.; Person, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    The shallow groundwater flow system of White Sands dune field, located within the Tularosa Basin of Southern New Mexico, likely stabilizes the base of the largest gypsum dunefield in the world. Water table geometry and elevation play a critical role in controlling dune thickness, spatial extent, and migration rates. The White Sands National Monument (WHSA) is concerned that lowering the water table may lead to increased scour and migration of the dune field, which could be unfavorable to the preservation of the flora and fauna that have adapted to survive there. In response to projected increases in groundwater pumping in the regional Tularosa Basin groundwater system, changes in surface water use, and the threat of climate change, the WHSA is interested in understanding how these changes on a regional scale may impact the shallow dune aquifer. We have collected hydrological, geochemical, and geophysical data in order to identify the sources of recharge that contribute to the shallow dune aquifer and to assess interactions between this water table aquifer and the basin-scale, regional system. Vertical head gradients, temperature, and water quality data strongly suggest that local precipitation is the primary source of recharge to the dune aquifer today. This suggests that the modern dune system is relatively isolated from the deeper regional system. However, geochemical and electrical resistivity data indicates that the deeper basin groundwater system does contribute to the shallow system and suggests that hydrologic conditions have changed on geologic time scales. We have constructed a preliminary cross-sectional hydrologic model to attempt to characterize the interaction of the shallow dune aquifer with the deeper basin groundwater. The model cross-section extends about 80 km across the Tularosa Basin in a NW-SE direction parallel to the primary flow path. We represented 6 km of Precambrian crystalline basement, Paleozoic sedimentary rocks as well as Pleistocene

  17. Improved cavity detection from coupled seismic and hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desilets, S.; Bonal, N. D.; Desilets, D.

    2012-12-01

    Seismic methods hold much promise for cavity detection, but the results from field measurements have been frustratingly inconsistent between field sites. The reasons for the inconsistencies are not fully understood, though water saturation in the near-surface may be responsible to some extent. The conventional approach has been to focus on reflections and refractions generated from the impedance contrast of the cavity wall itself, where the dimensions and geometry of the cavity should play key roles. Here, we instead focus on the influence of impedance contrasts that are generated by hydrologic processes in the adjacent porous medium. These contrasts can potentially increase or decrease the reflection/refraction footprint of the cavity itself. Detectable hydrologic anomalies can be created by the simple drainage of groundwater into the cavity (initially saturated conditions) or by the creation of a capillary barrier around the cavity (initially unsaturated conditions). Because both processes ultimately involve unsaturated conditions we use HYDRUS 2D to numerically solve the Richard's equation and simulate flow through the vadose zone. Using the generated soil moisture information and Brutsaert's (1964) saturation-velocity relation, we constructed velocity models. Our simulations suggest several scenarios where changes in saturation due to the cavity may be utilized to enhance cavity detection with seismic waves. One simulation is for unsaturated conditions in the top 10 meters of soil, where capillary forces exert a major influence on velocity. In this case, the impedance contrast is greatest for near-saturated soils. Deeper cavities (100s of meters) in permeable saturated materials are also favorable due to the sharp impedance contrast between saturated and unsaturated material. Our hydrology-determined velocity models are then used in finite-difference wave propagation simulations to determine the effects on seismic waves at various depths and saturations

  18. Extended Range Hydrological Predictions: Uncertainty Associated with Model Parametrization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, J.; Ghosh, S.; Sahai, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    The better understanding of various atmospheric processes has led to improved predictions of meteorological conditions at various temporal scale, ranging from short term which cover a period up to 2 days to long term covering a period of more than 10 days. Accurate prediction of hydrological variables can be done using these predicted meteorological conditions, which would be helpful in proper management of water resources. Extended range hydrological simulation includes the prediction of hydrological variables for a period more than 10 days. The main sources of uncertainty in hydrological predictions include the uncertainty in the initial conditions, meteorological forcing and model parametrization. In the present study, the Extended Range Prediction developed for India for monsoon by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune is used as meteorological forcing for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Sensitive hydrological parameters, as derived from literature, along with a few vegetation parameters are assumed to be uncertain and 1000 random values are generated given their prescribed ranges. Uncertainty bands are generated by performing Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) for the generated sets of parameters and observed meteorological forcings. The basins with minimum human intervention, within the Indian Peninsular region, are identified and validation of results are carried out using the observed gauge discharge. Further, the uncertainty bands are generated for the extended range hydrological predictions by performing MCS for the same set of parameters and extended range meteorological predictions. The results demonstrate the uncertainty associated with the model parametrisation for the extended range hydrological simulations. Keywords: Extended Range Prediction, Variable Infiltration Capacity model, Monte Carlo Simulation.

  19. Snowmelt and runoff modelling of an Arctic hydrological basin in west Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bøggild, C. E.; Knudby, C. J.; Knudsen, M. B.; Starzer, W.

    1999-09-01

    This paper compares the performance of a conceptual modelling system and several physically-based models for predicting runoff in a large hydrological basin, Tasersuaq, in west Greenland. This basin, which is typical of many Greenland basins, is interesting because of the fast hydrological response to changing conditions. Due to the predominance of exposed bedrock surface and only minor occurrence of sediments and organic soils, there is little restraint to run-off, making the treatment of the snowmelt component of primary importance.Presently a conceptual modelling system, HBV, is applied in Greenland and also in most of the arctic regions of Scandinavia for operational forecasting. A general wish to use hydrological models for other purposes, such as to improve data collection and to gain insight into the hydrological processes has promoted interest in the more physically-based hydrological models. In this paper, two degree-day models, the Danish version of the physically-based SHE distributed hydrological modelling system (MIKE SHE) and the conceptual HBV model are compared with a new model that links MIKE SHE and a distributed energy balance model developed for this study, APUT.The HBV model performs the best overall simulation of discharge, which presently makes it most suited for general forecasting. The combination of MIKE SHE and APUT i.e. a physically based modelling system shows promising results by improving the timing of the initiation of spring flood, but does not perform as well throughout the remaining part of the snowmelt season. The modelling study shows that local parameters such as the snow depletion curve, the temporal snow albedo and perhaps also melt water storage need to be more precisely determined from field studies before physically-based modelling can be improved.

  20. Everglades Plant Community Response to 20th Century Hydrologic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, D. A.; Bernhardt, C. E.; Holmes, C. W.; Weimer, L. M.

    2002-05-01

    Pollen records in sediment cores from sites in the historic Everglades allowed us to document the natural variability of the ecosystem over the past 2,000 years and contrast it to 20th century changes in wetland plant communities. The natural system included extensive water-lily sloughs, sawgrass ridges, and scattered tree islands extending from Lake Okeechobee southward through Shark River Slough. Between ~1000 AD and 1200 AD, weedy species such as Amaranthus (water hemp) became more abundant, indicating decreased annual rainfall, shorter hydroperiods, and shallower water depths during this time. After ~1200 AD, vegetation returned to its pre-1000 AD composition. During the 20th century, two phases of hydrologic alteration occurred. Completed by 1930, the first phase included construction of the Hoover Dike, canals linking Lake Okeechobee to the Atlantic Ocean, and the Tamiami Trail. Reconstructions of plant communities indicate that these changes shortened hydroperiods and lowered water depths throughout the Everglades. The extent of water-lily slough communities decreased, and tree islands became larger in Shark River Slough. The second phase resulted from construction of canals and levees in the 1950s, creating three Water Conservation Areas. The response of plant communities to these changes varied widely depending on location in the Everglades. In Loxahatchee NWR, weedy and short-hydroperiod plant species became more abundant in marshes, and species composition of tree islands changed. In Water Conservation Area 2A, cattail replaced sawgrass in marshes with high nutrient influx; the ridge and slough structure of the marshes was replaced by more homogeneous sawgrass marshes; sustained high water levels for more than a decade resulted in loss of tree islands that had existed for more than 1,000 years. In Everglades National Park, the extent of slough vegetation decreased further. Near Florida Bay, the rate of mangrove intrusion into fresh-water marshes

  1. The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreadis, Konstantinos M; Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

    2017-01-01

    The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications.

  2. Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia - status and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi

    2017-02-01

    Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

  3. Study on the general model of hydrological frequency analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王浩; 秦大庸; 孙济良; 王建华

    2001-01-01

    On the basis of exponential Gamma distribution, this paper presents a model consisting of 11 kinds of distribution curves for the first time. The model contains several frequency curves used commonly in China and other countries, for example, Pearson type-3 distribution, Kritsky and Menkel (USSR) distribution, Logarithmic normal distribution, and so on. Through dealing with parameters, the model may be applicable to the hydrological extreme values of different climate regions, and has very strong flexibility. In this paper, a real case study using flood datum of 240 different hydrological stations in China is submitted and the calculating results are satisfactory.

  4. Use of remote sensing data in distributed hydrological models: Applications in the Senegal river basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandholt, Inge; Andersen, Jens; Dybkjær, Gorm Ibsen;

    1999-01-01

    Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she......Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she...

  5. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  6. Application of HydroGeoSphere to model the response to anthropogenic climate change of three-dimensional hydrological processes in the geologically, geothermally, and topographically complex Valles Caldera super volcano, New Mexico: Preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wine, M.; Cadol, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to reduce streamflow in the southwestern USA due to reduction in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. Understanding the effects of climate change in this region is particularly important for mountainous areas since these are primary sources of recharge in arid and semi-arid environments. Therefore we undertook to model effects of climate change on the hydrological processes in Valles Caldera (448 km2), located in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico. In Valles Caldera modeling the surficial, hydrogeological, and geothermal processes that influence hydrologic fluxes each present challenges. The surficial dynamics of evaporative demand and snowmelt both serve to control recharge dynamics, but are complicated by the complex topography and spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics. Complex factors affecting evaporative demand include leaf area index, temperature, albedo, and radiation affected by topographic shading; all of these factors vary in space and time. Snowmelt processes interact with evaporative demand and geology to serve as an important control on streamflow generation, but modeling the effects of spatiotemporal snow distributions on streamflow generation remains a challenge. The complexity of Valles Caldera's geology—and its associated hydraulic properties—rivals that of its surficial hydrologic forcings. Hydrologically important geologic features that have formed in the Valles Caldera are three-dimensionally intricate and include a dense system of faults, alluvium, landslides, lake deposits, and features associated with the eruption and collapse of this super volcano. Coupling geothermally-driven convection to the hydrologic cycle in this still-active geothermal system presents yet an additional challenge in modeling Valles Caldera. Preliminary results from applying the three-dimensional distributed hydrologic finite element model HydroGeoSphere to a sub-catchment of Valles Caldera will be

  7. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2016-01-01

    The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

  8. The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

    2017-08-01

    Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management

  9. The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. White

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants, a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization. Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes

  10. WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

  11. Understanding uncertainty in process-based hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Slater, A. G.; Newman, A. J.; Marks, D. G.; Landry, C.; Lundquist, J. D.; Rupp, D. E.; Nijssen, B.

    2013-12-01

    Building an environmental model requires making a series of decisions regarding the appropriate representation of natural processes. While some of these decisions can already be based on well-established physical understanding, gaps in our current understanding of environmental dynamics, combined with incomplete knowledge of properties and boundary conditions of most environmental systems, make many important modeling decisions far more ambiguous. There is consequently little agreement regarding what a 'correct' model structure is, especially at relatively larger spatial scales such as catchments and beyond. In current practice, faced with such a range of decisions, different modelers will generally make different modeling decisions, often on an ad hoc basis, based on their balancing of process understanding, the data available to evaluate the model, the purpose of the modeling exercise, and their familiarity with or investment in an existing model infrastructure. This presentation describes development and application of multiple-hypothesis models to evaluate process-based hydrologic models. Our numerical model uses robust solutions of the hydrology and thermodynamic governing equations as the structural core, and incorporates multiple options to represent the impact of different modeling decisions, including multiple options for model parameterizations (e.g., below-canopy wind speed, thermal conductivity, storage and transmission of liquid water through soil, etc.), as well as multiple options for model architecture, that is, the coupling and organization of different model components (e.g., representations of sub-grid variability and hydrologic connectivity, coupling with groundwater, etc.). Application of this modeling framework across a collection of different research basins demonstrates that differences among model parameterizations are often overwhelmed by differences among equally-plausible model parameter sets, while differences in model architecture lead

  12. Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert M.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

    2015-01-01

    Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitoring in New England by means of a climate-response network. The framework identifies specific inland hydrologic variables that are sensitive to climate variation; identifies geographic regions with similar hydrologic responses; proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological data-collection stations for evaluation of hydrologic response to climate variation; and identifies streamflow basins for intensive, process-based studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions.

  13. Comparing spatial and temporal transferability of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sopan D.; Stieglitz, Marc

    2015-06-01

    Operational use of hydrological models requires the transfer of calibrated parameters either in time (for streamflow forecasting) or space (for prediction at ungauged catchments) or both. Although the effects of spatial and temporal parameter transfer on catchment streamflow predictions have been well studied individually, a direct comparison of these approaches is much less documented. Here, we compare three different schemes of parameter transfer, viz., temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal, using a spatially lumped hydrological model called EXP-HYDRO at 294 catchments across the continental United States. Results show that the temporal parameter transfer scheme performs best, with lowest decline in prediction performance (median decline of 4.2%) as measured using the Kling-Gupta efficiency metric. More interestingly, negligible difference in prediction performance is observed between the spatial and spatiotemporal parameter transfer schemes (median decline of 12.4% and 13.9% respectively). We further demonstrate that the superiority of temporal parameter transfer scheme is preserved even when: (1) spatial distance between donor and receiver catchments is reduced, or (2) temporal lag between calibration and validation periods is increased. Nonetheless, increase in the temporal lag between calibration and validation periods reduces the overall performance gap between the three parameter transfer schemes. Results suggest that spatiotemporal transfer of hydrological model parameters has the potential to be a viable option for climate change related hydrological studies, as envisioned in the "trading space for time" framework. However, further research is still needed to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal aspects of catchment hydrological variability.

  14. GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of Upstream Watershed of ... Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... of SWAT model interfaced with GIS software (MapWindow) in the prediction of stream flow of a ...

  15. Hydrologic and water quality terminology as applied to modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    A survey of literature and examination in particular of terminology use in a previous special collection of modeling calibration and validation papers has been conducted to arrive at a list of consistent terminology recommended for writing about hydrologic and water quality model calibration and val...

  16. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Guo-Yi; Wei, Xiaohua; Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Huang, Yuhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Zhang, Qianmei; Liu, Juxiu; Meng, Ze; Wang, Chunlin; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Shizhong; Tang, Xu-Li; Liu, Xiaodong

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

  17. How runoff begins (and ends): characterizing hydrologic response at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Loague, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Improved understanding of the complex dynamics associated with spatially and temporally variable runoff response is needed to better understand the hydrology component of interdisciplinary problems. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize the environmental controls on runoff generation for the range of different streamflow-generation mechanisms illustrated in the classic Dunne diagram. The comprehensive physics-based model of coupled surface-subsurface flow, InHM, is employed in a heuristic mode. InHM has been employed previously to successfully simulate the observed hydrologic response at four diverse, well-characterized catchments, which provides the foundation for this study. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested terrain; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland. The InHM boundary-value problems for these four catchments provide the corner-stones for alternative simulation scenarios designed to address the question of how runoff begins (and ends). Simulated rainfall-runoff events are used to systematically explore the impact of soil-hydraulic properties and rainfall characteristics. This approach facilitates quantitative analysis of both integrated and distributed hydrologic responses at high-spatial and temporal resolution over the wide range of environmental conditions represented by the four catchments. The results from 140 unique simulation scenarios illustrate how rainfall intensity/depth, subsurface permeability contrasts, characteristic curve shapes, and topography provide important controls on the hydrologic-response dynamics. The processes by which runoff begins (and ends) are shown, in large part, to be defined by the relative rates of rainfall, infiltration, lateral flow convergence, and storage dynamics within the variably saturated soil layers.

  18. Probabilistic hydrological nowcasting using radar based nowcasting techniques and distributed hydrological models: application in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletti, Maria Laura; Pignone, Flavio; Rebora, Nicola; Silvestro, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    The exposure of the urban areas to flash-floods is particularly significant to Mediterranean coastal cities, generally densely-inhabited. Severe rainfall events often associated to intense and organized thunderstorms produced, during the last century, flash-floods and landslides causing serious damages to urban areas and in the worst events led to human losses. The temporal scale of these events has been observed strictly linked to the size of the catchments involved: in the Mediterranean area a great number of catchments that pass through coastal cities have a small drainage area (less than 100 km2) and a corresponding hydrologic response timescale in the order of a few hours. A suitable nowcasting chain is essential for the on time forecast of this kind of events. In fact meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation at the scale of these events, small both at spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. Nowcasting models, covering the time interval of the following two hours starting from the observation try to extend the predictability limits of the forecasting models in support of real-time flood alert system operations. This work aims to present the use of hydrological models coupled with nowcasting techniques. The nowcasting model PhaSt furnishes an ensemble of equi-probable future precipitation scenarios on time horizons of 1-3 h starting from the most recent radar observations. The coupling of the nowcasting model PhaSt with the hydrological model Continuum allows to forecast the flood with a few hours in advance. In this way it is possible to generate different discharge prediction for the following hours and associated return period maps: these maps can be used as a support in the decisional process for the warning system.

  19. Curvature distribution within hillslopes and catchments and its effect on the hydrological response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. W. Bogaart

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Topographic convergence and divergence are first order controls on the hillslope and catchment hydrological response, as evidenced by similarity parameter analyses. Hydrological models often do not take convergence as measured by contour curvature directly into account; instead they use comparable measures like the topographic index or the hillslope width function. This paper focusses on the question how hillslope width functions and contour curvature are related within the Plynlimon catchments, Wales. It is shown that the total width function of all hillslopes suggest that the catchments are overall divergent, which is in contrast to the perception that catchments should be overall convergent. This so-called convergence paradox is explained by the effect of skewed curvature distributions and extreme curvatures near the channel network. The hillslope-storage Boussinesq (hsB model is used to asses the effect of within-hillslope convergence variability on the hydrological response. It is concluded that this effect is small, even when the soil saturation threshold is exceeded. Also described in this paper is a novel algorithm to compute flow path lengths on hillslopes towards the drainage network, using the multiple-flow-direction method.

  20. Curvature distribution within hillslopes and catchments and its effect on the hydrological response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. W. Bogaart

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Topographic convergence and divergence are first order controls on the hillslope and catchment hydrological response, as evidenced by similarity parameter analyses. Hydrological models often do not take convergence as measured by contour curvature directly into account; instead they use comparable measures like the topographic index, or the hillslope width function. This paper focuses on the question how hillslope width functions and contour curvature are related within the Plynlimon catchments, Wales. It is shown that the total width function of all hillslopes combined suggest that the catchments are divergent in overall shape, which is in contrast to the perception that catchments should be overall convergent. This so-called convergence paradox is explained by the effect of skewed curvature distributions and extreme curvatures near the channel network. The hillslope-storage Bossiness (hsB model is used to asses the effect of within-hillslope convergence variability on the hydrological response. It is concluded that this effect is small, even when the soil saturation threshold is exceeded. Also described in this paper is a novel algorithm to compute flow path lengths on hillslopes towards the drainage network, using the multidirectional flow redistribution method.

  1. Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Bowen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

  2. "As-If" the Climate Has Changed; What We Can Expect in Hydrologic Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieux, B. E.; Looper, J.

    2015-12-01

    Predicting the effects of climate change through hydrologic modeling with hydrologic forcing representative of historic and future climates. Understanding the hydrologic impacts of various climate scenarios and pathways is accomplished with a physics-based distributed hydrologic model with historic and future precipitation and evapotranspiration inputs. Vflo is a gridded hydrologic model setup for the 71,009 sq.-km. study area, the Canadian River, extending from arid areas in eastern New Mexico, across the Texas Panhandle to Lake Eufaula in sub-humid eastern Oklahoma. This model uses merged radar and rain gauge data to generate hydrographs at gauged and ungauged locations. Vflo is calibrated to observed stream gauge data minimizing Nash-Sutcliffe error function for volume and discharge. Streamflow characteristics at ungauged locations, for both historic and future scenarios, are used to develop ecological relationships between water quality, discharge, and fish species. Testing the change in hydrologic response from future potential evapotranspiration (PET) and future precipitation is accomplished using observed rainfall. Historical rainfall is perturbed to represent future climate scenarios. Model-based simulations are used to test various scenarios comprising: 1) warmer and drier, 2) warmer and status quo precipitation, and 3) status quo PET but drier. Bias corrected and spatially down-sampled CMIP3 datasets are used to create perturbations for the latter portion of the 21st Century, 2070-2099. The change in precipitation and PET between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 is applied to radar data from the observed period, 1995-2010. Then GCM-predicted changes in precipitation under the perturbation of historic rainfall accomplishes an important feature, i.e. preserving realistic spatial, temporal, and convective patterns of rainfall typical of the southern plains, which adds confidence to the model-based simulation of future climate impacts. Simulation of the perturbed

  3. Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the

  4. Neural Networks for Hydrological Modeling Tool for Operational Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu

    2010-05-01

    Hydrological models are useful in many water resources applications such as flood control, irrigation and drainage, hydro power generation, water supply, erosion and sediment control, etc. Estimates of runoff are needed in many water resources planning, design development, operation and maintenance activities. Runoff is generally computed using rainfall-runoff models. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular for obtaining hydrological forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia consisting of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models, and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. Recently, soft artificial intelligence tools such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become popular for research purposes but have not been adopted in operational hydrological forecasts. There is a strong need to develop ANN models based on real catchment data and compare them with the conceptual models actually in use in real catchments. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of RRL and ANNs are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, SimHyd model has been used. Genetic Algorithm has been used as an optimizer in the RRL to calibrate the SimHyd model. Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the GA optimizer to develop the SimHyd model. The results obtained from the best configuration of the SimHyd model are presented here. Feed-forward neural network model structure trained by back-propagation training algorithm has been adopted here to develop the ANN models. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models

  5. Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m3 per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened. PMID:28106048

  6. Assessing the hydrologic restoration of an urbanized area via an integrated distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, D. H.; Chui, T. F. M.

    2013-12-01

    Green structures (e.g. green roof and bio-retention systems) are adopted to mitigate the hydrological impacts of urbanization. However, our current understanding of urbanization impacts are often process-specific (e.g. peak flow or storm recession), and our characterizations of green structures are often on a local scale. This study uses an integrated distributed hydrological model, Mike SHE, to evaluate the urbanization impacts on both overall water balance and water regime, and also the effectiveness of green structures at a catchment level. Three simulations are carried out for a highly urbanized catchment in the tropics, representing pre-urbanized, urbanized and restored conditions. Urbanization transforms vegetated areas into impervious surfaces, resulting in 20 and 66% reductions in infiltration and base flow respectively, and 60 to 100% increase in peak outlet discharge. Green roofs delay the peak outlet discharge by 2 h and reduce the magnitude by 50%. Bio-retention systems mitigate the peak discharge by 50% and also enhance infiltration by 30%. The combination of green roofs and bio-retention systems even reduces the peak discharge to the pre-urbanized level. The simulation results obtained are independent of field data, enabling a generic model for understanding hydrological changes during the different phases of urbanization. This will benefit catchment-level planning of green structures in other urban areas.

  7. Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m3 per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened.

  8. Assessing the hydrologic restoration of an urbanized area via integrated distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. H. Trinh

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Green structures (e.g. green roof and bio-retention systems are adopted to mitigate the hydrological impacts of urbanization. However, our current understanding of the urbanization impacts are often process-specific (e.g. peak flow or storm recession, and our characterizations of green structures are often on a local scale. This study uses an integrated distributed hydrological model, Mike SHE, to evaluate the urbanization impacts on both overall water balance and water regime, and also the effectiveness of green structures at a catchment level. Three simulations are carried out for a highly urbanized catchment in the tropics, representing pre-urbanized, urbanized and restored conditions. Urbanization transforms vegetated areas into impervious surfaces, resulting in 20 and 66% reductions in infiltration and base flow respectively, and 60 to 100% increase in peak outlet discharge. Green roofs delay the peak outlet discharge by 2 h and reduce the magnitude by 50%. Bio-retention systems mitigate the peak discharge by 50% and also enhance infiltration by 30%. The combination of green roofs and bio-retention systems even reduces the peak discharge to the pre-urbanized level. The simulation results obtained are independent of field data, enabling a generic model for understanding hydrological changes during the different phases of urbanization. This will benefit catchment level planning of green structures in other urban areas.

  9. Integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems and global positioning system techniques with hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Jay Krishna; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Ekanthalu, Vicky Shettigondahalli

    2017-07-01

    Integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) are emerging research areas in the field of groundwater hydrology, resource management, environmental monitoring and during emergency response. Recent advancements in the fields of RS, GIS, GPS and higher level of computation will help in providing and handling a range of data simultaneously in a time- and cost-efficient manner. This review paper deals with hydrological modeling, uses of remote sensing and GIS in hydrological modeling, models of integrations and their need and in last the conclusion. After dealing with these issues conceptually and technically, we can develop better methods and novel approaches to handle large data sets and in a better way to communicate information related with rapidly decreasing societal resources, i.e. groundwater.

  10. Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

  11. Integrating Geophysics, Geology, and Hydrology for Enhanced Hydrogeological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auken, E.

    2012-12-01

    Geophysical measurements are important for providing information on the geological structure to hydrological models. Regional scale surveys, where several watersheds are mapped at the same time using helicopter borne transient electromagnetic, results in a geophysical model with a very high lateral and vertical resolution of the geological layers. However, there is a bottleneck when it comes to integrating the information from the geophysical models into the hydrological model. This transformation is difficult, because there is not a simple relationship between the hydraulic conductivity needed for the hydrological model and the electrical conductivity measured by the geophysics. In 2012 the Danish Council for Strategic Research has funded a large research project focusing on the problem of integrating geophysical models into hydrological models. The project involves a number of Danish research institutions, consulting companies, a water supply company, as well as foreign partners, USGS (USA), TNO (Holland) and CSIRO (Australia). In the project we will: 1. Use statistical methods to describe the spatial correlation between the geophysical and the lithological/hydrological data; 2. Develop semi-automatic or automatic methods for transforming spatially sampled geophysical data into geological- and/or groundwater-model parameter fields; 3. Develop an inversion method for large-scale geophysical surveys in which the model space is concordant with the hydrological model space 4. Demonstrate the benefits of spatially distributed geophysical data for informing and updating groundwater models and increasing the predictive power of management scenarios. 5. Develop a new receiver system for Magnetic Resonance Sounding data and further enhance the resolution capability of data from the SkyTEM system. 6. In test areas in Denmark, Holland, USA and Australia we will use data from existing airborne geophysical data, hydrological and geological data and also collect new airborne

  12. Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aris Marfai

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

  13. A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

    2016-01-01

    A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a

  14. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting: integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.

    2009-01-01

    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following top

  15. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting: Integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.

    2009-01-01

    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following top

  16. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting: integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.

    2009-01-01

    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following

  17. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting: Integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.

    2009-01-01

    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following

  18. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  19. [A new precipitation distribution hydrological model and its application].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shengtang; Kang, Shaozhong; Liu, Yin

    2005-03-01

    In distribution hydrological models, precipitation is the key input data for analyzing and computing hydrological processes. Finding a way to produce distribution precipitation data is a hotspot in hydrological research. This paper presented the hypothesis that the distribution of precipitation on the earth surface is the result of the effects of atmosphere system and terrain. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural precipitation is a group of concentric ovals on the flat earth surface, and has a definite centre with maximum precipitation not affected by terrain. Supporting by the hypothesis, this paper established a new precipitation distribution hydrological model which could simulate the spatial distribution of precipitation, and modified the terrain effect on precipitation through Newton interpolation. The position of the precipitation centre and its precipitation amount were simulated in first time, and thus, the model could have a practical value in basin storm analysis and real-time runoff forecasting. The model was tested by the precipitation data of the Xichuan river basin in the Loess Plateau, which indicated that the model had a high precision.

  20. Assessment of LULC and climate change on the hydrology of Ashti Catchment, India using VIC model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Narendra Hengade; T I Eldho

    2016-12-01

    The assessment of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change over the hydrology of a catchment has become inevitable and is an essential aspect to understand the water resources-related problems within the catchment. For large catchments, mesoscale models such as variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model are required for appropriate hydrological assessment. In this study, Ashti Catchment (sub-catchment of Godavari Basin in India) is considered as a case study to evaluate the impacts of LULC changes and rainfall trends on the hydrological variables using VIC model. The land cover data and rainfall trends for 40 years (1971−2010) were used as driving input parameters to simulate the hydrological changes over the Ashti Catchment and the results are compared with observed runoff. The good agreement between observed and simulated streamflows emphasises that the VIC model is able to evaluate the hydrological changes within the major catchment, satisfactorily. Further, the study shows that evapotranspiration is predominantly governed by the vegetation classes. Evapotranspiration is higher for the forest cover as compared to the evapotranspiration for shrubland/grassland, as the trees with deeper roots draws the soil moisture from the deeper soil layers. The results show that the spatial extent of change in rainfall trends is small as compared to the total catchment. The hydrological response of the catchment shows that small changes in monsoon rainfall predominantly contribute to runoff, which results in higher changes in runoff as the potential evapotranspiration within the catchments is achieved. The study also emphasises that the hydrological implications of climate change are not very significant on the Ashti Catchment, during the last 40 years (1971−2010).

  1. Assessment of LULC and climate change on the hydrology of Ashti Catchment, India using VIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengade, Narendra; Eldho, T. I.

    2016-12-01

    The assessment of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change over the hydrology of a catchment has become inevitable and is an essential aspect to understand the water resources-related problems within the catchment. For large catchments, mesoscale models such as variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model are required for appropriate hydrological assessment. In this study, Ashti Catchment (sub-catchment of Godavari Basin in India) is considered as a case study to evaluate the impacts of LULC changes and rainfall trends on the hydrological variables using VIC model. The land cover data and rainfall trends for 40 years (1971-2010) were used as driving input parameters to simulate the hydrological changes over the Ashti Catchment and the results are compared with observed runoff. The good agreement between observed and simulated streamflows emphasises that the VIC model is able to evaluate the hydrological changes within the major catchment, satisfactorily. Further, the study shows that evapotranspiration is predominantly governed by the vegetation classes. Evapotranspiration is higher for the forest cover as compared to the evapotranspiration for shrubland/grassland, as the trees with deeper roots draws the soil moisture from the deeper soil layers. The results show that the spatial extent of change in rainfall trends is small as compared to the total catchment. The hydrological response of the catchment shows that small changes in monsoon rainfall predominantly contribute to runoff, which results in higher changes in runoff as the potential evapotranspiration within the catchments is achieved. The study also emphasises that the hydrological implications of climate change are not very significant on the Ashti Catchment, during the last 40 years (1971-2010).

  2. Comparing spatial and temporal transferability of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sopan; Stieglitz, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Operational use of hydrological models requires the transfer of calibrated parameters either in time (for streamflow forecasting) or space (for prediction at ungauged catchments) or both. Although the effects of spatial and temporal parameter transfer on catchment streamflow predictions have been well studied individually, a direct comparison of these approaches is much less documented. In our view, such comparison is especially pertinent in the context of increasing appeal and popularity of the "trading space for time" approaches that are proposed for assessing the hydrological implications of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we compare three different schemes of parameter transfer, viz., temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal, using a spatially lumped hydrological model called EXP-HYDRO at 294 catchments across the continental United States. Results show that the temporal parameter transfer scheme performs best, with lowest decline in prediction performance (median decline of 4.2%) as measured using the Kling-Gupta efficiency metric. More interestingly, negligible difference in prediction performance is observed between the spatial and spatiotemporal parameter transfer schemes (median decline of 12.4% and 13.9% respectively). We further demonstrate that the superiority of temporal parameter transfer scheme is preserved even when: (1) spatial distance between donor and receiver catchments is reduced, or (2) temporal lag between calibration and validation periods is increased. Nonetheless, increase in the temporal lag between calibration and validation periods reduces the overall performance gap between the three parameter transfer schemes. Results suggest that spatiotemporal transfer of hydrological model parameters has the potential to be a viable option for climate change related hydrological studies, as envisioned in the "trading space for time" framework. However, further research is still needed to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal

  3. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  4. Applying sequential Monte Carlo methods into a distributed hydrologic model: lagged particle filtering approach with regularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Noh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve hydrologic prediction. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC methods, known as "particle filters", provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. In this paper, we propose an improved particle filtering approach to consider different response time of internal state variables in a hydrologic model. The proposed method adopts a lagged filtering approach to aggregate model response until uncertainty of each hydrologic process is propagated. The regularization with an additional move step based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC is also implemented to preserve sample diversity under the lagged filtering approach. A distributed hydrologic model, WEP is implemented for the sequential data assimilation through the updating of state variables. Particle filtering is parallelized and implemented in the multi-core computing environment via open message passing interface (MPI. We compare performance results of particle filters in terms of model efficiency, predictive QQ plots and particle diversity. The improvement of model efficiency and the preservation of particle diversity are found in the lagged regularized particle filter.

  5. The TopoFlow Hydrologic Model: A New Community Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckham, S. D.

    2004-05-01

    TopoFlow is a powerful, spatially-distributed hydrologic model with a user-friendly, wizard-style point-and-click interface. It is an open-source model that was designed to be easily modified and extended by a user community of hydrologists. Its main purpose is to model many different physical processes in a watershed with the goal of accurately predicting how various hydrologic variables will evolve in time in response to climatic forcings. The streamlined graphical interface makes it easy to perform multiple runs with different settings and different methods for parameterizing various physical processes; this makes it an excellent tool for research and teaching. Time evolutions for single pixels (such as hydrographs), collections of pixels, or entire grids (as animations) are all supported as output options. The currently supported physical processes are: Snowmelt (degree-day or energy balance method), Precipitation (uniform or varying in space/time), Evapotranspiration (Priestley-Taylor or energy balance), Infiltration (Green-Ampt coming soon), Channel/overland flow (Manning or law of wall) and Darcian, multi-layer subsurface flow. For each physical process, the user selects a "method" to be used to model that process from a droplist of options, and then specifies the input data that is required for that method and the output variables that are of interest. The ability to handle springs, sinks and canals was recently added. TopoFlow is designed so that users can use existing methods, share methods with others, or add their own methods and incorporate them into the graphical user interface. A method called "None" is always available to turn off any given physical process, and cleanly-written templates are provided to simplify the task of adding new methods. Input variables may be specified as a scalar (to be distributed uniformly), a time series, a spatial grid, or a grid seqence indexed by time. Many of the physical process methods used in TopoFlow are based on

  6. Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.

    2013-12-01

    Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common

  7. Role of Soils in Hydrologic Response to Climate Extremes and Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Reedy, R. C.; Faunt, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing demand for water in response to growing global population underscores the need to better understand linkages and feedbacks between land surface processes and water resources to manage water resources more sustainably. Here we examine the role of soils on hydrologic response to climate extremes and land use change using field scale and remote sensing data at point to basin scales in the U.S. High Plains and California Central Valley. In the U.S. High Plains, soil-textural variations make the difference between sustainable water resources related to coarse-grained soils in the northern High Plains and groundwater mining associated with fine-grained soils in much of the central and southern High Plains. Field data show dynamic response of water resources to droughts and land use change in the northern High Plains with limited response in much of the central and southern High Plains. Soil profiles provide a key to the past by archiving system response to environmental changes in subsurface soil physics and environmental tracer data. Areas with coarse-grained soils are vulnerable to reduced recharge during droughts and increased recharge with land use change from perennial to annual vegetation whereas fine-grained soils are generally insensitive to these stresses. GRACE satellite monitoring of total water storage variations in response to recent droughts is consistent with these spatial variations in soils across the High Plains and hydrologic response to droughts.In the California Central Valley, coarse grained soils in alluvial basins result in dynamic hydrologic responses to climate extremes. GRACE satellite data show marked depletion in total water storage in response to recent droughts reflecting groundwater and surface reservoir storage declines consistent with regional groundwater modeling and monitoring data. The coarse alluvial soils typical of much of the region facilitate managed aquifer recharge in depleted aquifers to complement surface reservoir

  8. A new global river network database for macroscale hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huan; Kimball, John S.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, L. Ruby; Adler, Robert F.

    2012-09-01

    Coarse-resolution (upscaled) river networks are critical inputs for runoff routing in macroscale hydrologic models. Recently, Wu et al. (2011) developed a hierarchical dominant river tracing (DRT) algorithm for automated extraction and spatial upscaling of river networks using fine-scale hydrography inputs. We applied the DRT algorithms using combined HydroSHEDS and HYDRO1k global fine-scale hydrography inputs and produced a new series of upscaled global river network data at multiple (1/16° to 2°) spatial resolutions. The new upscaled results are internally consistent and congruent with the baseline fine-scale inputs and should facilitate improved regional to global scale hydrologic simulations.

  9. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Shi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to represent the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog, the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE. Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal

  10. Reducing equifinality of hydrological models by integrating Functional Streamflow Disaggregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüdtke, Stefan; Apel, Heiko; Nied, Manuela; Carl, Peter; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    A universal problem of the calibration of hydrological models is the equifinality of different parameter sets derived from the calibration of models against total runoff values. This is an intrinsic problem stemming from the quality of the calibration data and the simplified process representation by the model. However, discharge data contains additional information which can be extracted by signal processing methods. An analysis specifically developed for the disaggregation of runoff time series into flow components is the Functional Streamflow Disaggregation (FSD; Carl & Behrendt, 2008). This method is used in the calibration of an implementation of the hydrological model SWIM in a medium sized watershed in Thailand. FSD is applied to disaggregate the discharge time series into three flow components which are interpreted as base flow, inter-flow and surface runoff. In addition to total runoff, the model is calibrated against these three components in a modified GLUE analysis, with the aim to identify structural model deficiencies, assess the internal process representation and to tackle equifinality. We developed a model dependent (MDA) approach calibrating the model runoff components against the FSD components, and a model independent (MIA) approach comparing the FSD of the model results and the FSD of calibration data. The results indicate, that the decomposition provides valuable information for the calibration. Particularly MDA highlights and discards a number of standard GLUE behavioural models underestimating the contribution of soil water to river discharge. Both, MDA and MIA yield to a reduction of the parameter ranges by a factor up to 3 in comparison to standard GLUE. Based on these results, we conclude that the developed calibration approach is able to reduce the equifinality of hydrological model parameterizations. The effect on the uncertainty of the model predictions is strongest by applying MDA and shows only minor reductions for MIA. Besides

  11. Do land parameters matter in large-scale hydrological modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2013-04-01

    Many of the most pending issues in large-scale hydrology are concerned with predicting hydrological variability at ungauged locations. However, current-generation hydrological and land surface models that are used for their estimation suffer from large uncertainties. These models rely on mathematical approximations of the physical system as well as on mapped values of land parameters (e.g. topography, soil types, land cover) to predict hydrological variables (e.g. evapotranspiration, soil moisture, stream flow) as a function of atmospheric forcing (e.g. precipitation, temperature, humidity). Despite considerable progress in recent years, it remains unclear whether better estimates of land parameters can improve predictions - or - if a refinement of model physics is necessary. To approach this question we suggest scrutinizing our perception of hydrological systems by confronting it with the radical assumption that hydrological variability at any location in space depends on past and present atmospheric forcing only, and not on location-specific land parameters. This so called "Constant Land Parameter Hypothesis (CLPH)" assumes that variables like runoff can be predicted without taking location specific factors such as topography or soil types into account. We demonstrate, using a modern statistical tool, that monthly runoff in Europe can be skilfully estimated using atmospheric forcing alone, without accounting for locally varying land parameters. The resulting runoff estimates are used to benchmark state-of-the-art process models. These are found to have inferior performance, despite their explicit process representation, which accounts for locally varying land parameters. This suggests that progress in the theory of hydrological systems is likely to yield larger improvements in model performance than more precise land parameter estimates. The results also question the current modelling paradigm that is dominated by the attempt to account for locally varying land

  12. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  13. Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht

    2015-04-01

    International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

  14. Integrated landscape/hydrologic modeling tool for semiarid watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariano Hernandez; Scott N. Miller

    2000-01-01

    An integrated hydrologic modeling/watershed assessment tool is being developed to aid in determining the susceptibility of semiarid landscapes to natural and human-induced changes across a range of scales. Watershed processes are by definition spatially distributed and are highly variable through time, and this approach is designed to account for their spatial and...

  15. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...

  16. Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

  17. Information and complexity measures for hydrologic model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrological models are commonly evaluated through the residual-based performance measures such as the root-mean square error or efficiency criteria. Such measures, however, do not evaluate the degree of similarity of patterns in simulated and measured time series. The objective of this study was to...

  18. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh;

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...

  19. Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres Matallana, Arturo; Leopold, U.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused by c

  20. Integrated hydrological modelling of the North China Plain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shu, Yunqiao; Villholth, Karen G.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2012-01-01

    The integrated hydrological model MIKE SHE was applied to a part of the North China Plain to examine the dynamics of the hydrological system and to assess water management options to restore depleted groundwater resources. The model simulates the spatio-temporal distribution of recharge...... to and the associated dynamics of the alluvial aquifers based on climatic conditions, land use, soil characteristics, irrigation and coupled unsaturated-saturated zone processes. The model was auto-calibrated for the period 1996–2002 against daily observations of groundwater head from wells distributed across the 7230...... km2 region and actual evapotranspiration measured at an agricultural station located within the model area. The model simulations compared well with observations and acceptable values were obtained for both root mean square error and correlation coefficient. The calibrated model was subsequently used...

  1. Modelling of green roofs' hydrologic performance using EPA's SWMM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burszta-Adamiak, E; Mrowiec, M

    2013-01-01

    Green roofs significantly affect the increase in water retention and thus the management of rain water in urban areas. In Poland, as in many other European countries, excess rainwater resulting from snowmelt and heavy rainfall contributes to the development of local flooding in urban areas. Opportunities to reduce surface runoff and reduce flood risks are among the reasons why green roofs are more likely to be used also in this country. However, there are relatively few data on their in situ performance. In this study the storm water performance was simulated for the green roofs experimental plots using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) with Low Impact Development (LID) Controls module (version 5.0.022). The model consists of many parameters for a particular layer of green roofs but simulation results were unsatisfactory considering the hydrologic response of the green roofs. For the majority of the tested rain events, the Nash coefficient had negative values. It indicates a weak fit between observed and measured flow-rates. Therefore complexity of the LID module does not affect the increase of its accuracy. Further research at a technical scale is needed to determine the role of the green roof slope, vegetation cover and drying process during the inter-event periods.

  2. Hydrological modelling in a "big data" era: a proof of concept of hydrological models as web services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, Wouter; Vitolo, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    Dealing with the massive increase in global data availability of all sorts is increasingly being known as "big data" science. Indeed, largely leveraged by the internet, a new resource of data sets emerges that are so large and heterogeneous that they become awkward to work with. New algorithms, methods and models are needed to filter such data to find trends, test hypotheses, make predictions and quantify uncertainties. As a considerable share of the data relate to environmental processes (e.g., satellite images, distributed sensor networks), this evolution provides exciting challenges for environmental sciences, and hydrology in particular. Web-enabled models are a promising approach to process large and distributed data sets, and to provide tailored products for a variety of end-users. It will also allow hydrological models to be used as building blocks in larger earth system simulation systems. However, in order to do so we need to reconsider the ways that hydrological models are built, results are made available, and uncertainties are quantified. We present the results of an experimental proof of concept of a hydrological modelling web-service to process heterogeneous hydrological data sets. The hydrological model itself consists of a set of conceptual model routines implemented with on a common platform. This framework is linked to global and local data sets through web standards provided by the Open Geospatial Consortium, as well as to a web interface that enables an end-user to request stream flow simulations from a self-defined location. In essence, the proof-of-concept can be seen as an implementation of the "Models of Everywhere" concept introduced by Beven in 2007. Although the setup is operational and effectively simulates stream flow, we identify several bottlenecks for optimal hydrological simulation in a web-context. The major challenges we identify are related to (1) model selection; (2) uncertainty quantification, and (3) user interaction and

  3. Spatial transferability of landscape-based hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongkai; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gharari, Shervan; Sriwongsitanon, Nutchanart; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    Landscapes, mainly distinguished by land surface topography and vegetation cover, are crucial in defining runoff generation mechanisms, interception capacity and transpiration processes. Landscapes information provides modelers with a way to take into account catchment heterogeneity, while simultaneously keeping model complexity low. A landscape-based hydrological modelling framework (FLEX-Topo), with parallel model structures, was developed and tested in various catchments with diverse climate, topography and land cover conditions. Landscape classification is the basic and most crucial procedure to create a tailor-made model for a certain catchment, as it explicitly relates hydrologic similarity to landscape similarity, which is the base of this type of models. Therefore, the study catchment is classified into different landscapes units that fulfil similar hydrological function, based on classification criteria such as the height above the nearest drainage, slope, aspect and land cover. At present, to suggested model includes four distinguishable landscapes: hillslopes, terraces/plateaus, riparian areas, and glacierized areas. Different parallel model structures are then associated with the different landscape units to describe their different dominant runoff generation mechanisms. These hydrological units are parallel and only connected by groundwater reservoir. The transferability of this landscape-based model can then be compared with the transferability of a lumped model. In this study, FLEX-Topo was developed and tested in three study sites: two cold-arid catchments in China (the upper Heihe River and the Urumqi Glacier No1 catchment), and one tropical catchment in Thailand (the upper Ping River). Stringent model tests indicate that FLEX-Topo, allowing for more process heterogeneity than lumped model formulations, exhibits higher capabilities to be spatially transferred. Furthermore, the simulated water balances, including internal fluxes, hydrograph

  4. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  5. Different methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall data for operational hydrology and hydrological modeling at watershed scale: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ly, S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed management and hydrological modeling require data related to the very important matter of precipitation, often measured using raingages or weather stations. Hydrological models often require a preliminary spatial interpolation as part of the modeling process. The success of spatial interpolation varies according to the type of model chosen, its mode of geographical management and the resolution used. The quality of a result is determined by the quality of the continuous spatial rainfall, which ensues from the interpolation method used. The objective of this article is to review the existing methods for interpolation of rainfall data that are usually required in hydrological modeling. We review the basis for the application of certain common methods and geostatistical approaches used in interpolation of rainfall. Previous studies have highlighted the need for new research to investigate ways of improving the quality of rainfall data and ultimately, the quality of hydrological modeling.

  6. A priori parameter estimates for global hydrological modeling using geographically based information: Application of the CREST hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Z.; Zhang, K.; Xue, X.; Huang, J.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are among the most common natural disasters with worldwide impacts that cause significant humanitarian and economic negative consequences. The increasing availability of satellite-based precipitation estimates and geospatial datasets with global coverage and improved temporal resolutions has enhanced our capability of forecasting floods and monitoring water resources across the world. This study presents an approach combing physically based and empirical methods for a-priori parameter estimates and a parameter dataset for the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrological model at the global scale. This approach takes advantage of geographic information such as topography, land cover, and soil properties to derive the distributed parameter values across the world. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the utility of a-priori parameter estimates to improve the performance of the CREST distributed hydrologic model and enable its prediction at poorly gauged or ungauged catchments. Using the CREST hydrologic model, several typical river basins in different continents were selected to serve as test areas. The results show that the simulated daily stream flows using the parameters derived from geographically based information outperform the results using the lumped parameters. Overall, this early study highlights that a priori parameter estimates for hydrologic model warrants improved model predictive capability in ungauged basins at regional to global scales.

  7. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  8. Hydrological modelling of the Mara River Basin, Kenya: Application of the Normalised Difference Infrared Index (NDII)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulsman, Petra; Savenije, Hubert; Bogaard, Thom

    2017-04-01

    In hydrology and water resources management, precipitation and discharge are the main time series for hydrological modelling. However, in African river catchments, the quantity and quality of the available precipitation stations and discharge measurements are unfortunately often inadequate for reliable hydrological modelling. To cope with these uncertainties, this study proposes to calibrate on water levels and to constrain the model using the Normalised Difference Infrared Index (NDII) as a proxy for root zone moisture stress. With the NDII, the leaf water content can be monitored. Previous studies related the NDII to the equivalent water thickness (EWT) of leaves, which is used to determine the vegetation water content (VWC). As the water content in the leaves is related to the water content in the root zone, the NDII can also be used as indicator of the soil moisture content in the root zone. In previous studies it was found that the root zone moisture content is exponentially correlated to the NDII during periods of moisture stress. In this study, the semi-distributed rainfall runoff model FLEX-Topo has been applied to the Mara River Basin. In this model seven sub-basins are distinguished and four hydrological response units with each a unique model structure based on the expected dominant flow processes. To calibrate the model, the water levels have been back-calculated from modelled discharges, using cross-section data and the Strickler formula calibrating parameter 'k•s1/2', and compared to measured water levels. In addition, the correlation between the NDII and root zone moisture content has been analysed for this river basin for each sub-catchment and hydrological response unit. Also, the application of the NDII as model constraint or for calibration has been analysed.

  9. Altitudes of the top of model layers in the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset defines the model grid and altitudes of the top of the 10 model layers and base of the model simulated in the transient hydrologic model of the...

  10. Influence of Roughness Surface In Hydrological Response of Semiarid Catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candela, A.; Noto, L.; Aronica, G.

    Here, an investigation has been carried out in order to understand the influence of the variation of the surface roughness in the definition of the hydrological response of semiarid catchments. In the original version of TOPMODEL the convolution rout- ing procedure used takes in account the distribution of predicted inflow with distance along the channel network from the outflow, considering the distributed nature of the channel network, but does not allow for the routing on the hillslopes. This type of approach is appropriate for humid basins but not for semiarid catchments which are mainly characterised by steep and straight hillslopes. In previous studies, same au- thors proposed a modified version of TOPMODEL in which the convolution routing procedure has been extended to the hillslopes by specifying the routing velocity for each pixel of the watershed. These velocities have been linked to the watershed land use because the different surface roughness whose coefficients has been derived on the basis of Engman's table. In this new study, roughness coefficients distribution are expressed as function of a unique value treated as a calibration parameter. The original and modified versions of TOPMODEL have been applied for the simulation of flood events in a Sicilian catchment.

  11. The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model - The next generation in fully integrated hydrologic simulation software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, S. E.; Hanson, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. MF-OWHM fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by agriculture and natural vegetation on the landscape, and for potable and other uses within a supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 combined with Local Grid Refinement, Streamflow Routing, Surface-water Routing Process, Seawater Intrusion, Riparian Evapotranspiration, and the Newton-Raphson solver. MF-OWHM also includes linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows; additional observation and parameter options for higher-order calibrations; and redesigned code for facilitation of self-updating models and faster simulation run times. The next version of MF-OWHM, currently under development, will include a new surface-water operations module that simulates dynamic reservoir operations, the conduit flow process for karst aquifers and leaky pipe networks, a new subsidence and aquifer compaction package, and additional features and enhancements to enable more integration and cross communication between traditional MODFLOW packages. By retaining and tracking the water within the hydrosphere, MF-OWHM accounts for "all of the water everywhere and all of the time." This philosophy provides more confidence in the water accounting by the scientific community and provides the public a foundation needed to address wider classes of problems such as evaluation of conjunctive-use alternatives and sustainability analysis, including potential adaptation and mitigation strategies, and best management practices. By Scott E. Boyce and Randall T. Hanson

  12. Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

  13. Hydrology in a Mediterranean mountain environment, the Vallcebre Research basins (North Eastern Spain). IV. Testing hydrological and erosion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallart, F.; Latron, J.; Llorens, P.; Martinez-Carreras, N.

    2009-07-01

    Three modelling exercises were carried out in the Vallcebre research basins in order to both improve the understanding of the hydrological processes and test the adequate of some models in such Mediterranean mountain conditions. These exercises consisted of i) the analysis of the hydrological role of the agricultural terraces using the TOPMODEL topographic index, ii) the parametrisation of TOPMODEL using internal basin information, and iii) a test of the erosion model KINEROS2 for simulating badlands erosion. (Author) 13 refs.

  14. On the effects of adaptive reservoir operating rules in hydrological physically-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giudici, Federico; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Recent years have seen a significant increase of the human influence on the natural systems both at the global and local scale. Accurately modeling the human component and its interaction with the natural environment is key to characterize the real system dynamics and anticipate future potential changes to the hydrological regimes. Modern distributed, physically-based hydrological models are able to describe hydrological processes with high level of detail and high spatiotemporal resolution. Yet, they lack in sophistication for the behavior component and human decisions are usually described by very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the catchment dynamics. In the case of water reservoir operators, these simplistic rules usually consist of target-level rule curves, which represent the average historical level trajectory. Whilst these rules can reasonably reproduce the average seasonal water volume shifts due to the reservoirs' operation, they cannot properly represent peculiar conditions, which influence the actual reservoirs' operation, e.g., variations in energy price or water demand, dry or wet meteorological conditions. Moreover, target-level rule curves are not suitable to explore the water system response to climate and socio economic changing contexts, because they assume a business-as-usual operation. In this work, we quantitatively assess how the inclusion of adaptive reservoirs' operating rules into physically-based hydrological models contribute to the proper representation of the hydrological regime at the catchment scale. In particular, we contrast target-level rule curves and detailed optimization-based behavioral models. We, first, perform the comparison on past observational records, showing that target-level rule curves underperform in representing the hydrological regime over multiple time scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, inter-annual). Then, we compare how future hydrological changes are affected by the two modeling

  15. Hydrologic Modeling and Parameter Estimation under Data Scarcity for Java Island, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanto, M.; Livneh, B.; Rajagopalan, B.; Kasprzyk, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The Indonesian island of Java is routinely subjected to intense flooding, drought and related natural hazards, resulting in severe social and economic impacts. Although an improved understanding of the island's hydrology would help mitigate these risks, data scarcity issues make the modeling challenging. To this end, we developed a hydrological representation of Java using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, to simulate the hydrologic processes of several watersheds across the island. We measured the model performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) at monthly time step. Data scarcity and quality issues for precipitation and streamflow warranted the application of a quality control procedure to data ensure consistency among watersheds resulting in 7 watersheds. To optimize the model performance, the calibration parameters were estimated using Borg Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (Borg MOEA), which offers efficient searching of the parameter space, adaptive population sizing and local optima escape facility. The result shows that calibration performance is best (NSE ~ 0.6 - 0.9) in the eastern part of the domain and moderate (NSE ~ 0.3 - 0.5) in the western part of the island. The validation results are lower (NSE ~ 0.1 - 0.5) and (NSE ~ 0.1 - 0.4) in the east and west, respectively. We surmise that the presence of outliers and stark differences in the climate between calibration and validation periods in the western watersheds are responsible for low NSE in this region. In addition, we found that approximately 70% of total errors were contributed by less than 20% of total data. The spatial variability of model performance suggests the influence of both topographical and hydroclimatic controls on the hydrological processes. Most watersheds in eastern part perform better in wet season and vice versa for the western part. This modeling framework is one of the first attempts at comprehensively simulating the hydrology in this maritime, tropical

  16. Use of remotely sensed precipitation and leaf area index in a distributed hydrological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens; Dybkjær, Gorm Ibsen; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2002-01-01

    distributed hydrological modelling, remote sensing, precipitation, leaf area index, NOAA AVHRR, cold cloud duration......distributed hydrological modelling, remote sensing, precipitation, leaf area index, NOAA AVHRR, cold cloud duration...

  17. Perspectives in using a remotely sensed dryness index in distributed hydrological models at river basin scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J.; Sandholt, Inge; Jensen, Karsten Høgh;

    2002-01-01

    Remote Sensing, hydrological modelling, dryness index, surface temperature, vegetation index, Africa, Senegal, soil moisture......Remote Sensing, hydrological modelling, dryness index, surface temperature, vegetation index, Africa, Senegal, soil moisture...

  18. The role of canopy hydrological diversity and complexity on water balance and carbon sequestration during dry conditions: a modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, L.; Stewart, A.; Band, L. E.

    2016-12-01

    The importance and influence of forest to catchment hydrology have been well recognized. In the South Eastern U.S., Chapel Hill, NC, evapotranspiration by forest dominates almost 80% of the annual precipitation in long term average. Stomatal conductivity varies by tree species and its response to dry condition differently between evergreen and deciduous, and within their phonology groups. In this study, we simulated the catchment hydrology and forest ecosystem at a local catchment, Cane Creek, in the Chapel Hill triangle area using a spatially distributed, process-based hydro-ecological model, RHESSys. We incorporated characteristics of individual tree species to represent high hydrological diversity (e.g., maple, oak, pine), which has been modeled as either evergreen or deciduous (low hydrological diversity) in many studies. With tree species specifically modeled, we were able to investigate the role of tree species diversity and complexity on catchment hydrology. Local forest plant diversity, size, and density were provided by the U.S. Forest Services FIA, and tree species physiological parameters were obtained through researches at Duke Forest. High hydrological diversity canopy has higher water use and carbon sequestration than low hydrological diversity canopy. This result supports the optimality theory that emergent vegetation pattern in landscape maximizes ecosystem productivity and water use efficiency. Previous study emphasized this emergent pattern in terms of vegetation density along the hillslope gradient, and we further emphasized the emergent pattern in terms of hydrological diversity in this study.

  19. On modeling complex interplay in small-scale self-organized socio-hydrological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Rachata

    2017-04-01

    Successful and sustainable socio-hydrological systems, as in any coupled natural human-systems, require effective governance, which depends on the existence of proper infrastructure (both hard and soft). Recent work has addressed systems in which resource users and the organization responsible for maintaining the infrastructure are separate entities. However, many socio-hydrological systems, especially in developing countries, are small and without such formal division of labor; rather, such division of labor typically arises from self-organization within the population. In this work, we modify and mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework by developing a system of differential equations that capture the strategic behavior within such a self-organized population, its interplay with infrastructure characteristics and hydrological dynamics, and feedbacks between these elements. The model yields a number of insightful conditions related to long-term sustainability and collapse of the socio-hydrological system in the form of relationships between biophysical and social factors. These relationships encapsulate nonlinear interactions of these factors. The modeling framework is grounded in a solid conceptual foundation upon which additional modifications and realism can be built for potential reconciliation between socio-hydrology with other related fields and further applications.

  20. Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Estupina-Borrell

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds. The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events. This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT or from French Geographical Institute (IGN; (ii the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or

  1. Comparison between fully distributed model and semi-distributed model in urban hydrology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Giangola-Murzyn, Agathe; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe

    2013-04-01

    a C-band one located at 37 km West. In this work we compare the hydrological response of two models for the 4 rainfall events first with the available radar data. Then a particular focus is made on the impact of small-scale unmeasured rainfall variability (i.e. occurring at scales below the available one). More precisely scaling properties of rainfall are used to generate an ensemble of downscaled rainfall fields (simply by continuing the underlying cascade process whose relevant parameters are estimated on the available range of scales). An ensemble of hydrological responses is then simulated, and the variability within it analyzed. It appears that the associated uncertainty is significant and should be taken into account. Finally we will discuss the interest of deploying X-band radars (which provide an hectometric resolution) in urban environment and the potential benefits of using these models and small-scale rainfall data for the management of sewerage and retentions basin. Further analysis on these issues will be carried out next year with the installation of an X-band radar near Marne-la-Vallée (located at roughly 10 Km of the studied catchment) in the framework of the RainGain project (European project financed by the Interreg IVB funds).

  2. Evaluating and improving hydrologic processes in the community land model for integrated earth system modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Khamis, K.; Blaen, P. J.; Hainie, S.; Mellor, C.; Brown, L. E.; Milner, A. M.

    2011-12-01

    High climatic sensitivity and low anthropogenic influence make glacierized river basins important environments for examining hydrological and ecological response to global change. This paper synthesises findings from previous and ongoing research in glacierized Alpine and Arctic river basins (located in the French Pyrenees, New Zealand, Swedish Lapland and Svalbard), which adopts an interdisciplinary approach to investigate the climate-cryosphere-hydrology-ecology cascade. Data are used to advance hypotheses concerning the consequences of climate change/ variability on glacier river system hydrology and ecology. Aquatic ecosystems in high latitude and altitude environments are influenced strongly by cryospheric and hydrological processes due to links between atmospheric forcing, snowpack/ glacier mass-balance, river runoff, physico-chemistry and biota. In the current phase of global warming, many glaciers are retreating. Using downscaled regional climate projections as inputs to a distributed hydrological model for a study basin in the French Pyrenees (i.e. an environment at the contemporary limit of valley glaciation), we show how shrinking snow and ice-masses may alter space-time dynamics in basin runoff. Notably, the timing of peak snow- and ice-melt may shift; and the proportion of stream flow sourced from rainfall-runoff (cf. meltwater) may increase. Across our range of Alpine and Arctic study basins, we quantify observed links between relative water source contributions (% meltwater : % groundwater), physico-chemical habitat (e.g. water temperature, electrical conductivity, suspended sediment and channel stability) and benthic communities. At the site scale, results point towards increased community diversity (taxonomic and functional) as meltwater contributions decline and physico-chemical habitat becomes less harsh. However, basin-scale biodiversity may be reduced due to less spatio-temporal heterogeneity in water source contributions and habitats, and the

  3. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  4. The application of remote sensing to the development and formulation of hydrologic planning models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, T. R.; Castruccio, P. A.; Loats, H. L., Jr.

    1977-01-01

    The development of a remote sensing model and its efficiency in determining parameters of hydrologic models are reviewed. Procedures for extracting hydrologic data from LANDSAT imagery, and the visual analysis of composite imagery are presented. A hydrologic planning model is developed and applied to determine seasonal variations in watershed conditions. The transfer of this technology to a user community and contract arrangements are discussed.

  5. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

  6. Committee of machine learning predictors of hydrological models uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    In prediction of uncertainty based on machine learning methods, the results of various sampling schemes namely, Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm (SCEMUA), differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive cluster covering (ACCO)[1] used to build a predictive models. These models predict the uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of a deterministic output from hydrological model [2]. Inputs to these models are the specially identified representative variables (past events precipitation and flows). The trained machine learning models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. For each sampling scheme three machine learning methods namely, artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression are applied to predict output uncertainties. The problem here is that different sampling algorithms result in different data sets used to train different machine learning models which leads to several models (21 predictive uncertainty models). There is no clear evidence which model is the best since there is no basis for comparison. A solution could be to form a committee of all models and to sue a dynamic averaging scheme to generate the final output [3]. This approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model HBV in the Nzoia catchment in Kenya. [1] N. Kayastha, D. L. Shrestha and D. P. Solomatine. Experiments with several methods of parameter uncertainty estimation in hydrological modeling. Proc. 9th Intern. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Tianjin, China, September 2010. [2] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press

  7. Utilization of remote sensing observations in hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragan, R. M.

    1977-01-01

    Most of the remote sensing related work in hydrologic modeling has centered on modifying existing models to take advantage of the capabilities of new sensor techniques. There has been enough success with this approach to insure that remote sensing is a powerful tool in modeling the watershed processes. Unfortunately, many of the models in use were designed without recognizing the growth of remote sensing technology. Thus, their parameters were selected to be map or field crew definable. It is believed that the real benefits will come through the evolution of new models having new parameters that are developed specifically to take advantage of our capabilities in remote sensing. The ability to define hydrologically active areas could have a significant impact. The ability to define soil moisture and the evolution of new techniques to estimate evoportransportation could significantly modify our approach to hydrologic modeling. Still, without a major educational effort to develop an understanding of the techniques used to extract parameter estimates from remote sensing data, the potential offered by this new technology will not be achieved.

  8. Anticipating the Role of SWOT in Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavelsky, T.; Biancamaria, S.; Andreadis, K.; Durand, M. T.; Schumann, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission is a joint project of NASA and CNES, the French space agency. It aims to provide the first simultaneous, space-based measurements of inundation extent and water surface elevation in rivers, lakes, and wetlands around the world. Although the orbit repeat time is approximately 21 days, many areas of the earth will be viewed multiple times during this window. SWOT will observe rivers as narrow as 50-100 m and lakes as small as 0.01-0.06 km2, with height accuracies of ~10 cm for water bodies 1 km2 in area. Because SWOT will measure temporal variations in the height, width, and slope of rivers, several algorithms have been developed to estimate river discharge solely from SWOT measurements. Additionally, measurements of lake height and area will allow estimation of variability in lake water storage. These new hydrologic measurements will provide important sources of information both hydrologic and hydrodynamic models at regional to global scales. SWOT-derived estimates of water storage change and discharge will help to constrain simulation of the water budget in hydrologic models. Measurements of water surface elevation will provide similar constraints on hydrodynamic models of river flow. SWOT data will be useful for model calibration and validation, but perhaps the most exciting applications involve assimilation of SWOT data into models to enhance model robustness and provide denser temporal sampling than available from SWOT observations alone.

  9. Developing a hydrological model in the absence of field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sproles, E. A.; Orrego Nelson, C.; Kerr, T.; Lopez Aspe, D.

    2014-12-01

    We present two runoff models that use remotely-sensed snow cover products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) as the first order hydrologic input. These simplistic models are the first step in developing an operational model for the Elqui River watershed located in northern Central Chile (30°S). In this semi-arid region, snow and glacier melt are the dominant hydrologic inputs where annual precipitation is limited to three or four winter events. Unfortunately winter access to the Andean Cordillera where snow accumulates is limited. While a monitoring network to measure snow where it accumulates in the upper elevations is under development, management decisions regarding water resources cannot wait. The two models we present differ in structure. The first applies a Monte Carlo approach to determine relationships between lagged changes in monthly snow cover frequency and monthly discharge. The second is a modified degree-day melt model, utilizing the MODIS snow cover product to determine where and when snow melt occurs. These models are not watershed specific and are applicable in other regions where snow dominates hydrologic inputs, but measurements are minimal.

  10. Flash flood warning based on fully dynamic hydrology modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Nickovic, Slobodan

    2016-04-01

    Numerical hydrologic modeling has achieved limited success in the past due to, inter alia, lack of adequate input data. Over the last decade, data availability has improved substantially. For modelling purposes, high-resolution data on topography, river routing, and land cover and soil features have meanwhile become available, as well as the observations such as radar precipitation information. In our study, we have implemented the HYPROM model (Hydrology Prognostic Model) to predict a flash flood event at a smaller-scale basin in Southern Serbia. HYPROM is based on the full set of governing equations for surface hydrological dynamics, in which momentum components, along with the equation of mass continuity, are used as full prognostic equations. HYPROM also includes a river routing module serving as a collector for the extra surface water. Such approach permits appropriate representation of different hydrology scales ranging from flash floods to flows of large and slow river basins. The use of full governing equations, if not appropriately parameterized, may lead to numerical instability systems when the surface water in a model is vanishing. To resolve these modelling problems, an unconditionally stable numerical scheme and a method for height redistribution avoiding shortwave height noise have been developed in HYPROM, which achieve numerical convergence of u, v and h when surface water disappears. We have applied HYPROM, driven by radar-estimated precipitation, to predict flash flooding occurred over smaller and medium-size river basins. Two torrential rainfall cases have been simulated to check the accuracy of the model: the exceptional flooding of May 2014 in Western Serbia, and the convective flash flood of January 2015 in Southern Serbia. The second episode has been successfully predicted by HYPROM in terms of timing and intensity six hours before the event occurred. Such flash flood warning system is in preparation to be operationally implemented in the

  11. A conceptual glacio-hydrological model for high mountainous catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schaefli

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In high mountainous catchments, the spatial precipitation and therefore the overall water balance is generally difficult to estimate. The present paper describes the structure and calibration of a semi-lumped conceptual glacio-hydrological model for the joint simulation of daily discharge and annual glacier mass balance that represents a better integrator of the water balance. The model has been developed for climate change impact studies and has therefore a parsimonious structure; it requires three input times series – precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration – and has 7 parameters to calibrate. A multi-signal approach considering daily discharge and – if available – annual glacier mass balance has been developed for the calibration of these parameters. The model has been calibrated for three different catchments in the Swiss Alps having glaciation rates between 37% and 52%. It simulates well the observed daily discharge, the hydrological regime and some basic glaciological features, such as the annual mass balance.

  12. Comparison of Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Simulated by WASMOD and HBV Models in Different Climatic Zones China, Ethiopia, and Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Eregno, Fasil Ejigu

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Recent advances in hydrological impact studies points that the response of specific catchments to climate change scenario using a single model approach is questionable. Based on this hypothesis, this study was aimed at investigating the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of river basins in three different climatic zones (China, Ethiopia and Norway) using WASMOD and HBV hydrological models. Specifically the objectives include (i) examining and comparing the hydrolo...

  13. Effective use of integrated hydrological models in basin-scale water resources management: surrogate modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Wu, B.; Wu, X.

    2015-12-01

    Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) consider surface water and subsurface water as a unified system, and have been widely adopted in basin-scale water resources studies. However, due to IHMs' mathematical complexity and high computational cost, it is difficult to implement them in an iterative model evaluation process (e.g., Monte Carlo Simulation, simulation-optimization analysis, etc.), which diminishes their applicability for supporting decision-making in real-world situations. Our studies investigated how to effectively use complex IHMs to address real-world water issues via surrogate modeling. Three surrogate modeling approaches were considered, including 1) DYCORS (DYnamic COordinate search using Response Surface models), a well-established response surface-based optimization algorithm; 2) SOIM (Surrogate-based Optimization for Integrated surface water-groundwater Modeling), a response surface-based optimization algorithm that we developed specifically for IHMs; and 3) Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM), a stochastic response surface approach. Our investigation was based on a modeling case study in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), China's second largest endorheic river basin. The GSFLOW (Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model) model was employed. Two decision problems were discussed. One is to optimize, both in time and in space, the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for agricultural irrigation in the middle HRB region; and the other is to cost-effectively collect hydrological data based on a data-worth evaluation. Overall, our study results highlight the value of incorporating an IHM in making decisions of water resources management and hydrological data collection. An IHM like GSFLOW can provide great flexibility to formulating proper objective functions and constraints for various optimization problems. On the other hand, it has been demonstrated that surrogate modeling approaches can pave the path for such incorporation in real

  14. Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The program models rainfall, runoff, infiltration, and other water pathways to estimate how much water builds up above each landfill liner. It can incorporate data on vegetation, soil types, geosynthetic materials, initial moisture conditions, slopes, etc.

  15. On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Corzo Perez

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analysis of hydrological extremes is important and requires the adaptation of identification methods used for river basin models. This paper presents two methodologies that extend the tools to analyze spatio-temporal drought development and characteristics using large scale gridded time series of hydrometeorological data. The methodologies are classified as non-contiguous and contiguous drought area analyses (i.e. NCDA and CDA. The NCDA presents time series of percentages of areas in drought at the global scale and for pre-defined regions of known hydroclimatology. The CDA is introduced as a complementary method that generates information on the spatial coherence of drought events at the global scale. Spatial drought events are found through CDA by clustering patterns (contiguous areas. In this study the global hydrological model WaterGAP was used to illustrate the methodology development. Global gridded time series of subsurface runoff (resolution 0.5° simulated with the WaterGAP model from land points were used. The NCDA and CDA were developed to identify drought events in runoff. The percentages of area in drought calculated with both methods show complementary information on the spatial and temporal events for the last decades of the 20th century. The NCDA provides relevant information on the average number of droughts, duration and severity (deficit volume for pre-defined regions (globe, 2 selected hydroclimatic regions. Additionally, the CDA provides information on the number of spatially linked areas in drought, maximum spatial event and their geographic location on the globe. Some results capture the overall spatio-temporal drought extremes over the last decades of the 20th century. Events like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in South America and

  16. User requirements for hydrological models with remote sensing input

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolberg, Sjur

    1997-10-01

    Monitoring the seasonal snow cover is important for several purposes. This report describes user requirements for hydrological models utilizing remotely sensed snow data. The information is mainly provided by operational users through a questionnaire. The report is primarily intended as a basis for other work packages within the Snow Tools project which aim at developing new remote sensing products for use in hydrological models. The HBV model is the only model mentioned by users in the questionnaire. It is widely used in Northern Scandinavia and Finland, in the fields of hydroelectric power production, flood forecasting and general monitoring of water resources. The current implementation of HBV is not based on remotely sensed data. Even the presently used HBV implementation may benefit from remotely sensed data. However, several improvements can be made to hydrological models to include remotely sensed snow data. Among these the most important are a distributed version, a more physical approach to the snow depletion curve, and a way to combine data from several sources. 1 ref.

  17. Integrated hydrologic modeling: Effects of spatial scale, discretization and initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seck, A.; Welty, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater discharge contributes significantly to the annual flows of Chesapeake Bay tributaries and is presumed to contribute to the observed lag time between the implementation of management actions and the environmental response in the Chesapeake Bay. To investigate groundwater fluxes and flow paths and interaction with surface flow, we have developed a fully distributed integrated hydrologic model of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using ParFlow. Here we present a comparison of model spatial resolution and initialization methods. We have studied the effect of horizontal discretization on overland flow processes at a range of scales. Three nested model domains have been considered: the Monocacy watershed (5600 sq. km), the Potomac watershed (92000 sq. km) and the Chesapeake Bay watershed (400,000 sq. km). Models with homogeneous subsurface and topographically-derived slopes were evaluated at 500-m, 1000-m, 2000-m, and 4000-m grid resolutions. Land surface slopes were derived from resampled DEMs and corrected using stream networks. Simulation results show that the overland flow processes are reasonably well represented with a resolution up to 2000 m. We observe that the effects of horizontal resolution dissipate with larger scale models. Using a homogeneous model that includes subsurface and surface terrain characteristics, we have evaluated various initialization methods for the integrated Monocacy watershed model. This model used several options for water table depths and two rainfall forcing methods including (1) a synthetic rainfall-recession cycle corresponding to the region's average annual rainfall rate, and (2) an initial shut-off of rainfall forcing followed by a rainfall-recession cycling. Results show the dominance of groundwater generated runoff during a first phase of the simulation followed by a convergence towards more balanced runoff generation mechanisms. We observe that the influence of groundwater runoff increases in dissected relief areas

  18. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  19. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Velázquez

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed models. The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany. Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000 and a future (2041–2070 period. The results show that, for our hydrological model ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model.

  20. Phosphorus dynamics in lowland streams as a response to climatic, hydrological and agricultural land use gradients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Goyenola

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors for determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from agricultural fields to freshwaters. In this study, we evaluated the effect of agricultural intensification on the concentrations, dynamics and export of phosphorus (P in streams in two contrasting climate and hydrological regimes (temperate Denmark and subtropical Uruguay. We applied two alternative nutrient sampling programmes (high frequency composite sampling and low frequency instantaneous-grab sampling and three alternative methods to estimate exported P from the catchments. A source apportionment model was applied to evaluate the contribution derived from point and diffuse sources in all four catchments studied. Climatic and hydrological characteristics of catchments expressed as flow responsiveness (flashiness, exerted control on catchment and stream TP dynamics, having consequences that were more significant than the outcome of different TP monitoring and export estimation strategies. The impact of intensification of agriculture differed between the two contrasting climate zones. Intensification had a significant impact on subtropical climate with much higher total (as high as 4436 μg P L−1, particulate, dissolved and reactive soluble P concentrations and higher P export (as high as 5.20 kg P ha−1 year−1. However, we did not find an increased contribution of particulate P to total P as consequence of higher stream flashiness and intensification of agriculture. The high P concentrations at low flow and predominance of dissolved P in subtropical streams actually exacerbate the environmental and sanitary risks associated with eutrophication. In the other hand, temperate intensively farmed stream had lower TP than extensively farmed stream. Our results suggest that the lack of environmental regulations of agricultural production has more severe consequences on water quality, than climatic and hydrological differences

  1. Geoinformatics for assessing the morphometric control on hydrological response at watershed scale in the Upper Indus Basin

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shakil Ahmad Romshoo; Shakeel Ahmad Bhat; Irfan Rashid

    2012-06-01

    Five watersheds (W1, W2, W3, W4 and W5) in the upper Indus basin were chosen for detailed studies to understand the influences of geomorphology, drainage basin morphometry and vegetation patterns on hydrology. From the morphometric analysis, it is evident that the hydrologic response of these watersheds changes significantly in response to spatial variations in morphometric parameters. Results indicate that W1, W2 and W5 contribute higher surface runoff than W3 and W4. Further, the topographic and land cover analyses reveal that W1, W2 and W5 generate quick runoff that may result in flooding over prolonged rainy spells. A physically based semi-distributed hydrologic model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT) was used for simulating the hydrological response from the watersheds. As per the simulations, W5 watershed produces the highest runoff of 11.17 mm/year followed by W1 (7.9 mm/year), W2 (6.6 mm/year), W4 (5.33 mm/year) and W3 (4.29 mm/year). Thus, W5 is particularly more vulnerable to flooding during high rain spells followed by W1, W2, W4 and W3, respectively. Synthetic unit hydrograph analysis of the five watersheds also reveals high peak discharge for W5. The simulated results on the hydrological response from the five watersheds are quite in agreement with those of the morphometric, topographic, vegetation and unit hydrograph analyses. Therefore, it is quite evident that these factors have significant impact on the hydrological response from the watersheds and can be used to predict flood peaks, sediment yield and water discharge from the ungauged watersheds.

  2. Flexible modeling frameworks to replace small ensembles of hydrological models and move toward large ensembles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Clark, Martyn P.; Mizukami, Naoki

    2017-04-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes are typically assessed using small ensembles of hydrological models. That is, a handful of hydrological models are typically driven by a larger number of climate models. Such a setup has several limitations. Because the number of hydrological models is small, only a small proportion of the model space is sampled, likely leading to an underestimation of the uncertainties in the projections. Further, sampling is arbitrary: although hydrological models should be selected to provide a representative sample of existing models (in terms of complexity and governing hypotheses), they are instead usually selected based on legacy reasons. Furthermore, running several hydrological models currently constitutes a practical challenge because each model must be setup and calibrated individually. Finally, and probably most importantly, the differences between the projected impacts cannot be directly related to differences between hydrological models, because the models are different in almost every possible aspect. We are hence in a situation in which different hydrological models deliver different projections, but for reasons that are mostly unclear, and in which the uncertainty in the projections is probably underestimated. To overcome these limitations, we are experimenting with the flexible modeling framework FUSE (Framework for Understanding Model Errors). FUSE enables to construct conceptual models piece by piece (in a "pick and mix" approach), so it can be used to generate a large number of models that mimic existing models and/or models that differ from other models in single targeted respect (e.g. how baseflow is generated). FUSE hence allows for controlled modeling experiments, and for a more systematic and exhaustive sampling of the model space. Here we explore climate change impacts over the contiguous USA on a 12km grid using two groups of three models: the first group involves the commonly used models VIC, PRMS and HEC

  3. Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-03-01

    Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

  4. Modeling the effect of land use change on hydrology of a forested watershed in coastal South Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li

    2009-01-01

    Since hydrology is one of main factors controlling wetland functions, hydrologic models are useful for evaluating the effects of land use change on we land ecosystems. We evaluated two process-based hydrologic models with...

  5. Physics-Based Continuous Simulation of Long-Term Near-Surface Hydrologic Response for the Coos Bay Experimental Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, B. A.; Loague, K.; Montgomery, D. R.; Dietrich, W. E.

    2007-12-01

    The study reported here employed the physics-based InHM to simulate continuous hydrologic response from 1990 through 1996 for the Coos Bay (CB1) experimental catchment. InHM dynamically simulates 3D variably- saturated subsurface flow using Richards equation and 2D surface and open channel flow using the diffusion- wave approximation to the depth-integrated shallow-water equations. The uniqueness of the boundary-value problem (BVP) used in a previous study to successfully simulate three sprinkling experiments was assessed, via model performance evaluation against piezometric and discharge data, for 33 events extracted from the seven- year continuous record. The simulations conducted in this effort suggest the potential for interaction between the deeper water table and near-surface hydrologic response, which is in agreement with the detailed field observations made during the CB1 sprinkling experiments. The InHM simulations could not adequately reproduce the observed pore-water pressures, suggesting that detailed characterization of the locations and connectivities of bedrock fractures would be necessary to simulate distributed hydrologic response at locations where bedrock fracture flow is important. The results from this study suggest that uniqueness is a problem for physics-based models when employing a BVP used successfully for smaller magnitude storms to simulate larger storms. The long-term simulations conducted here, combined with previous event-based hydrologic- response simulations and field-based observations, highlight the challenges in characterizing / simulating fractured bedrock flow at small catchments like CB1.

  6. Evaluation for Moroccan dynamically downscaled precipitation from GCM CHAM5 and its regional hydrologic response

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jaw, Tsou; Li, Jialun; Hsu, Kuo-lin; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Driouech, Fatima

    2015-01-01

    .... The effectiveness of the hydrologic responses, driven by the downscaled precipitation, was further evaluated for the study region over the upstream watershed of Oum er Rbia River located in Central Morocco...

  7. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Velázquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models. The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany. Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971–2000 and a future (2041–2070 periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  8. Physics-Based Simulations of Near-Surface Hydrologic Response for a Steep, Unchanneled Catchment Near Coos Bay, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, B. A.; Loague, K.; Vanderkwaak, J. E.

    2006-12-01

    The comprehensive physics-based hydrologic-response model InHM was used to simulate 3D variably- saturated flow and solute transport for three controlled sprinkling experiments at the Coos Bay 1 (CB1) experimental catchment in the Oregon Coast Range. InHM dynamically simulates 3D variably-saturated subsurface flow using Richards equation and 2D surface and open channel flow using the diffusion-wave approximation to the depth-integrated shallow-water equations. The InHM-simulated hydrologic-response was evaluated against observed discharge, pressure head, total head, soil-water content, and deuterium concentration records. Runoff generation, tensiometric / piezometric response, pore-water pressure generation, and solute (tracer) transport were all simulated well for the soil. The InHM simulations indicate that the 3D geometry and hydraulic characteristics of the layered geologic interfaces at CB1 can control the development of saturation and pore-water pressures at the soil-saprolite interface. The weathered bedrock piezometric response and runoff contribution were not simulated well in this study, most likely as a result of the uncertainty in the weathered bedrock layer geometry and fractured-rock hydraulic properties. Sensitivity analyses for the CB1 boundary-value problem indicate that: (i) hysteretic unsaturated flow in the CB1 soil is important for accurate hydrologic-response simulation, (ii) using an impermeable boundary condition to represent layered geologic interfaces leads to large errors in simulated magnitudes of runoff generation and pore-water pressure development, and (iii) field-based retention curve measurements can dramatically improve variably-saturated hydrologic-response simulation at sites with steep soil-water retention curves. The near-surface CB1 simulations demonstrate that physics-based models like InHM are useful for characterizing detailed spatio-temporal hydrologic-response, developing process-based concepts, and identifying

  9. Hydrologic modeling of Low Impact Development systems at the urban catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palla, Anna; Gnecco, Ilaria

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, the implementation of Low Impact Development systems (LIDs) as source control solutions that contribute to restore the critical components of natural flow regimes, is analyzed at the urban catchment scale. The hydrologic response of a small urban catchment is investigated under different land use conversion scenarios including the installation of green roofs and permeable pavements. The modeling is undertaken using the EPA SWMM; the "do nothing" scenario is calibrated and validated based on field measurements while the LID control modules are calibrated and validated based on laboratory test measurements. The simulations are carried out by using as input the synthetic hyetographs derived for three different return periods (T = 2, 5 and 10 years). Modeling results confirm the effectiveness of LID solutions even for the design storm event (T = 10 years): in particular a minimum land use conversion area, corresponding to the Effective Impervious Area reduction of 5%, is required to obtain noticeable hydrologic benefits. The conversion scenario response is analyzed by using the peak flow reduction, the volume reduction and the hydrograph delay as hydrologic performance indexes. Findings of the present research show that the hydrologic performance linearly increases with increasing the EIA reduction percentages: at 36% EIA reduction (corresponding to the whole conversion of rooftops and parking lot areas), the peak and volume reductions rise till 0.45 and 0.23 respectively while the hydrograph delay increases till 0.19.

  10. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    of spatial information in a holistic assessment. Opposed, statistical measures typically only address a limited amount of spatial information. A web-based survey and a citizen science project are employed to quantify the collective perceptive skills of humans aiming at benchmarking spatial metrics...... of environmental science, such as meteorology, geostatistics or geography. In total, seven metrics are evaluated with respect to their capability to quantitatively compare spatial patterns. The human visual perception is often considered superior to computer based measures, because it integrates various dimensions...... with respect to their capability to mimic human evaluations. This PhD thesis aims at expanding the standard toolbox of spatial model evaluation with innovative metrics that adequately compare spatial patterns. Driven by the rise of more complex model structures and the increase of suitable remote sensing...

  11. Hydrological Modelling using Satellite-Based Crop Coefficients: A Comparison of Methods at the Basin Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes E. Hunink

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The parameterization of crop coefficients (kc is critical for determining a water balance. We used satellite-based and literature-based methods to derive kc values for a distributed hydrologic model. We evaluated the impact of different kc parametrization methods on the water balance and simulated hydrologic response at the basin and sub-basin scale. The hydrological model SPHY was calibrated and validated for a period of 15 years for the upper Segura basin (~2500 km2 in Spain, which is characterized by a wide range of terrain, soil, and ecosystem conditions. The model was then applied, using six kc parameterization methods, to determine their spatial and temporal impacts on actual evapotranspiration, streamflow, and soil moisture. The parameterization methods used include: (i Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI observations from MODIS; (ii seasonally-averaged NDVI patterns, cell-based and landuse-based; and (iii literature-based tabular values per land use type. The analysis shows that the influence of different kc parametrization methods on basin-level streamflow is relatively small and constant throughout the year, but it has a bigger effect on seasonal evapotranspiration and soil moisture. In the autumn especially, deviations can go up to about 15% of monthly streamflow. At smaller, sub-basin scale, deviations from the NDVI-based reference run can be more than 30%. Overall, the study shows that modeling of future hydrological changes can be improved by using remote sensing information for the parameterization of crop coefficients.

  12. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  13. Hydrological responses to climate change in Mt. Elgon watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Musau

    2015-03-01

    New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Comparison between the simulated baseline and future streamflow shows that in the Koitobos and Kimilili watersheds, August to December streamflow is likely to be highly altered. In the Kuywa watershed, March to June flows is likely to change considerably due to climate change. Major streamflow changes are likely in March to June and August to November in the Rongai watershed. Projected changes differed between the four watersheds despite their proximity, indicating different sensitivities to climate change and uncertainty about the potential hydrological impacts of climate change in the area.

  14. Assessment of flood peak simulations by Global Hydrological Models

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, James; Kjeldsen, Thomas; Prudhomme, Christel

    2011-01-01

    With significant changes to flood frequency anticipated as a result of climate change it becomes important to investigate how global hydrological models process climate forcing data. Flood frequency distribution describes the relationship between flood peak magnitude and its return period, indicating the average period of time between exceedance of a certain flood magnitude. The steepness of the distribution (or of the growth curve) is a measure of the variability of the flood peak series. An...

  15. Simultaneous Semi-Distributed Model Calibration Guided by Hydrologic Landscapes in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modelling approaches to transfer hydrologically-relevant information from locations with streamflow measurements to locations without such measurements continues to be an active field of research for hydrologists. The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) provide a sol...

  16. Development of a landscape unit delineation framework for ecoy-hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    A spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes in eco-hydrological models facilitates the identification of critical source areas and the placement of management and conservation measures. Especially floodplains are critical landscape features that differ from nei...

  17. Development of a "Hydrologic Equivalent Wetland" Concept for Modeling Cumulative Effects of Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Liu, T.; Li, R.; Yang, X.; Duan, L.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are one of the most important watershed microtopographic features that affect, in combination rather than individually, hydrologic processes (e.g., routing) and the fate and transport of constituents (e.g., sediment and nutrients). Efforts to conserve existing wetlands and/or to restore lost wetlands require that watershed-level effects of wetlands on water quantity and water quality be quantified. Because monitoring approaches are usually cost or logistics prohibitive at watershed scale, distributed watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be a best resort if wetlands can be appropriately represented in the models. However, the exact method that should be used to incorporate wetlands into hydrologic models is the subject of much disagreement in the literature. In addition, there is a serious lack of information about how to model wetland conservation-restoration effects using such kind of integrated modeling approach. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a "hydrologic equivalent wetland" (HEW) concept; and 2) demonstrate how to use the HEW concept in SWAT to assess effects of wetland restoration within the Broughton's Creek watershed located in southwestern Manitoba of Canada, and of wetland conservation within the upper portion of the Otter Tail River watershed located in northwestern Minnesota of the United States. The HEWs were defined in terms of six calibrated parameters: the fraction of the subbasin area that drains into wetlands (WET_FR), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their normal water level (WET_NVOL), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their maximum water level (WET_MXVOL), the longest tributary channel length in the subbasin (CH_L1), Manning's n value for the tributary channels (CH_N1), and Manning's n value for the main channel (CH_N2). The results indicated that the HEW concept allows the nonlinear functional relations between watershed processes

  18. Use of different sampling schemes in machine learning-based prediction of hydrological models' uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri; Lal Shrestha, Durga; van Griensven, Ann

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, a lot of attention in the hydrologic literature is given to model parameter uncertainty analysis. The robustness estimation of uncertainty depends on the efficiency of sampling method used to generate the best fit responses (outputs) and on ease of use. This paper aims to investigate: (1) how sampling strategies effect the uncertainty estimations of hydrological models, (2) how to use this information in machine learning predictors of models uncertainty. Sampling of parameters may employ various algorithms. We compared seven different algorithms namely, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm (SCEMUA), differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM), partical swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive cluster covering (ACCO) [1]. These methods were applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflow simulation using conceptual model HBV and Semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT. Nzoia catchment in West Kenya is considered as the case study. The results are compared and analysed based on the shape of the posterior distribution of parameters, uncertainty results on model outputs. The MLUE method [2] uses results of Monte Carlo sampling (or any other sampling shceme) to build a machine learning (regression) model U able to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of a hydrological model H outputs. Inputs to these models are specially identified representative variables (past events precipitation and flows). The trained machine learning models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. The problem here is that different sampling algorithms result in different data sets used to train such a model U, which leads to several models (and there is no clear evidence which model is the best since there is no basis for comparison). A solution could be to form a committee of all models U and

  19. Forward modeling of atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological loading effects in GPS processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boy, Jean-Paul; Bauder, Pierre; Ulrich, Patrice; Loomis, Bryant D.; Luthcke, Scott B.

    2017-04-01

    The dynamics of the surface geophysical fluids (atmosphere, ocean, continental hydrology) induces global mass redistributions at the Earth's surface, and therefore deformations of the Earth crust. The vertical and horizontal displacements can be modeled using outputs of general circulation models through a convolution with the appropriate Green's functions, describing the elastic response of the Earth to any surface loading. In general, all these non-tidal loading effects are not forward modeled in GPS processing. We investigate here the impact of the forward modeling of atmospheric loading using operational ECMWF surface pressure field, assuming an inverted barometer (IB) or a dynamic ocean response to pressure changes (TUGO-m), hydrological loading using GLDAS/Noah model or the latest global GRACE mascon solution produced by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. We show that the forward modeling of loading effects reduces significantly and systematically the variability of daily GPS solutions for both the horizontal and vertical components of a global network and over a 11-year period (2005-2015) processed using the latest GAMIT/GLOBK software. Due to missing components in the GLDAS/Noah model (surface and ground water), the annual component is better reduced when the continental hydrology is derived from the latest GRACE mascon solution.

  20. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    are assimilated significant improvements are obtained in both stream flow and groundwater modeling. However, the successfulness of both the state updating and the parameter estimation is conditioned on a sufficiently large ensemble size, as spurious correlations often had a negative impact on the performance...... of the data assimilation algorithm. To reduce the impact of spurious correlation, an adaptive localization method is applied, which significantly improved the performance of the assimilation while reducing the computational requirements. Finally, as observation bias is common in groundwater head observations...

  1. Numerical daemons in hydrological modeling: Effects on uncertainty assessment, sensitivity analysis and model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavetski, D.; Clark, M. P.; Fenicia, F.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrologists often face sources of uncertainty that dwarf those normally encountered in many engineering and scientific disciplines. Especially when representing large scale integrated systems, internal heterogeneities such as stream networks, preferential flowpaths, vegetation, etc, are necessarily represented with a considerable degree of lumping. The inputs to these models are themselves often the products of sparse observational networks. Given the simplifications inherent in environmental models, especially lumped conceptual models, does it really matter how they are implemented? At the same time, given the complexities usually found in the response surfaces of hydrological models, increasingly sophisticated analysis methodologies are being proposed for sensitivity analysis, parameter calibration and uncertainty assessment. Quite remarkably, rather than being caused by the model structure/equations themselves, in many cases model analysis complexities are consequences of seemingly trivial aspects of the model implementation - often, literally, whether the start-of-step or end-of-step fluxes are used! The extent of problems can be staggering, including (i) degraded performance of parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis algorithms, (ii) erroneous and/or misleading conclusions of sensitivity analysis, parameter inference and model interpretations and, finally, (iii) poor reliability of a calibrated model in predictive applications. While the often nontrivial behavior of numerical approximations has long been recognized in applied mathematics and in physically-oriented fields of environmental sciences, it remains a problematic issue in many environmental modeling applications. Perhaps detailed attention to numerics is only warranted for complicated engineering models? Would not numerical errors be an insignificant component of total uncertainty when typical data and model approximations are present? Is this really a serious issue beyond some rare isolated

  2. Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

  3. Sediment transport modelling in a distributed physically based hydrological catchment model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Konz

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Bedload sediment transport and erosion processes in channels are important components of water induced natural hazards in alpine environments. A raster based distributed hydrological model, TOPKAPI, has been further developed to support continuous simulations of river bed erosion and deposition processes. The hydrological model simulates all relevant components of the water cycle and non-linear reservoir methods are applied for water fluxes in the soil, on the ground surface and in the channel. The sediment transport simulations are performed on a sub-grid level, which allows for a better discretization of the channel geometry, whereas water fluxes are calculated on the grid level in order to be CPU efficient. Several transport equations as well as the effects of an armour layer on the transport threshold discharge are considered. Flow resistance due to macro roughness is also considered. The advantage of this approach is the integrated simulation of the entire basin runoff response combined with hillslope-channel coupled erosion and transport simulation. The comparison with the modelling tool SETRAC demonstrates the reliability of the modelling concept. The devised technique is very fast and of comparable accuracy to the more specialised sediment transport model SETRAC.

  4. On the non-stationarity of hydrological response in anthropogenically unaffected catchments: an Australian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajami, Hoori; Sharma, Ashish; Band, Lawrence E.; Evans, Jason P.; Tuteja, Narendra K.; Amirthanathan, Gnanathikkam E.; Bari, Mohammed A.

    2017-01-01

    Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to impact the terrestrial hydrologic cycle through changes in radiative forcings and plant physiological and structural responses. Here, we investigate the nature and frequency of non-stationary hydrological response as evidenced through water balance studies over 166 anthropogenically unaffected catchments in Australia. Non-stationarity of hydrologic response is investigated through analysis of long-term trend in annual runoff ratio (1984-2005). Results indicate that a significant trend (p < 0.01) in runoff ratio is evident in 20 catchments located in three main ecoregions of the continent. Runoff ratio decreased across the catchments with non-stationary hydrologic response with the exception of one catchment in northern Australia. Annual runoff ratio sensitivity to annual fractional vegetation cover was similar to or greater than sensitivity to annual precipitation in most of the catchments with non-stationary hydrologic response indicating vegetation impacts on streamflow. We use precipitation-productivity relationships as the first-order control for ecohydrologic catchment classification. A total of 12 out of 20 catchments present a positive precipitation-productivity relationship possibly enhanced by CO2 fertilization effect. In the remaining catchments, biogeochemical and edaphic factors may be impacting productivity. Results suggest vegetation dynamics should be considered in exploring causes of non-stationary hydrologic response.

  5. Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lent, Robert M.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

    2009-01-01

    This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key

  6. Differential soil respiration responses to changing hydrologic regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent J. Pacific; Brian L. McGlynn; Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Howard E. Epstein; Daniel L. Welsch

    2009-01-01

    Soil respiration is tightly coupled to the hydrologic cycle (i.e., snowmelt and precipitation timing and magnitude). We examined riparian and hillslope soil respiration across a wet (2005) and a dry (2006) growing season in a subalpine catchment. When comparing the riparian zones, cumulative CO2 efflux was 33% higher, and peak efflux occurred 17 days earlier during the...

  7. HYDROSCAPE: A SCAlable and ParallelizablE Rainfall Runoff Model for Hydrological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Di Lazzaro, M.; Zarlenga, A.; Majone, B.; Bellin, A.; Fiori, A.

    2015-12-01

    In this work we present HYDROSCAPE, an innovative streamflow routing method based on the travel time approach, and modeled through a fine-scale geomorphological description of hydrological flow paths. The model is designed aimed at being easily coupled with weather forecast or climate models providing the hydrological forcing, and at the same time preserving the geomorphological dispersion of the river network, which is kept unchanged independently on the grid size of rainfall input. This makes HYDROSCAPE particularly suitable for multi-scale applications, ranging from medium size catchments up to the continental scale, and to investigate the effects of extreme rainfall events that require an accurate description of basin response timing. Key feature of the model is its computational efficiency, which allows performing a large number of simulations for sensitivity/uncertainty analyses in a Monte Carlo framework. Further, the model is highly parsimonious, involving the calibration of only three parameters: one defining the residence time of hillslope response, one for channel velocity, and a multiplicative factor accounting for uncertainties in the identification of the potential maximum soil moisture retention in the SCS-CN method. HYDROSCAPE is designed with a simple and flexible modular structure, which makes it particularly prone to massive parallelization, customization according to the specific user needs and preferences (e.g., rainfall-runoff model), and continuous development and improvement. Finally, the possibility to specify the desired computational time step and evaluate streamflow at any location in the domain, makes HYDROSCAPE an attractive tool for many hydrological applications, and a valuable alternative to more complex and highly parametrized large scale hydrological models. Together with model development and features, we present an application to the Upper Tiber River basin (Italy), providing a practical example of model performance and

  8. Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

    1995-01-01

    In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

  9. Hydrological Modelling of Small Scale Processes in a Wetland Habitat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Ole; Jensen, Jacob Birk; Pedersen, Morten Lauge

    2009-01-01

    Numerical modelling of the hydrology in a Danish rich fen area has been conducted. By collecting various data in the field the model has been successfully calibrated and the flow paths as well as the groundwater discharge distribution have been simulated in details. The results of this work have...... shown that distributed numerical models can be applied to local scale problems and that natural springs, ditches, the geological conditions as well as the local topographic variations have a significant influence on the flow paths in the examined rich fen area....

  10. Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Doppler

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Spatially distributed hydrological models are popular tools in hydrology and they are claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time-series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for the transport of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography. Around 40% of the catchment area are artificially drained. We measured weather data, discharge and groundwater levels in 11 piezometers for 1.5 yr. For broadening the spatially distributed data sets that can be used for model calibration and validation, we translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. We used redox-morphology signs for these estimates. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to the groundwater levels in the piezometers and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the accuracy of the groundwater level predictions was not high enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas

  11. A confined-unconfined aquifer model for subglacial hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, Sebastian; Kleiner, Thomas; Humbert, Angelika

    2017-04-01

    Modeling the evolution of subglacial channels underneath ice sheets is an urgent need for ice sheet modellers, as channels affect sliding velocities and hence ice discharge. Owing to very limited observations of the subglacial hydraulic system, the development of physical models is quite restricted. Subglacial hydrology models are currently taking two different approaches: either modeling the development of a network of individual channels or modeling an equivalent porous layer where the channels are not resolved individually but modeled as a diffusive process, adjusted to reproduce the characteristic of an efficient system. Here, we use the latter approach, improving it by using a confined-unconfined aquifer model (CUAS), that allows the system to run dry in absence of sufficient water input. This ensures physical values for the water pressure. Channels are represented by adjusting the permeability and storage of the system according to projected locations of channels. The evolution of channel positions is governed by a reduced complexity model that computes channel growths according to simple rules (weighted random walks descending the hydraulic potential). As a proof of concept we present the results of the evolution of the hydrological system over time for a simple artificial glacier geometry.

  12. Integrated hydrological SVAT model for climate change studies in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollerup, M.; Refsgaard, J.; Sonnenborg, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    In a major Danish funded research project (www.hyacints.dk) a coupling is being established between the HIRHAM regional climate model code from Danish Meteorological Institute and the MIKE SHE distributed hydrological model code from DHI. The linkage between those two codes is a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer scheme, which is a module of MIKE SHE. The coupled model will be established for the entire country of Denmark (43,000 km2 land area) where a MIKE SHE based hydrological model already exists (Henriksen et al., 2003, 2008). The present paper presents the MIKE SHE SVAT module and the methodology used for parameterising and calibrating the MIKE SHE SVAT module for use throughout the country. As SVAT models previously typically have been tested for research field sites with comprehensive data on energy fluxes, soil and vegetation data, the major challenge lies in parameterisation of the model when only ordinary data exist. For this purpose annual variations of vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index (LAI), Crop height, Root depth and the surface albedo) for different combinations of soil profiles and vegetation types have been simulated by use of the soil plant atmosphere model Daisy (Hansen et al., 1990; Abrahamsen and Hansen, 2000) has been applied. The MIKE SHE SVAT using Daisy generated surface/soil properties model has been calibrated against existing data on groundwater heads and river discharges. Simulation results in form of evapotranspiration and percolation are compared to the existing MIKE SHE model and to observations. To analyse the use of the SVAT model in climate change impact assessments data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) have been analysed to assess the impacts on reference evapotranspiration (calculated by the Makkink and the Penmann-Monteith equations) as well as on the individual elements in the Penmann-Monteith equation (radiation, wind speed, humidity and temperature). The differences on the

  13. Explicit simulations of stream networks to guide hydrological modelling in ungauged basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Stoll

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff modelling in ungauged basins is still one of the greatest challenges in recent hydrological research. The lack of discharge data necessitates the establishment of new innovative approaches to guide hydrological modelling in ungauged basins. Besides the transfer of calibrated parameters from similar gauged catchments, the application of distributed data as a hydrological response in addition to discharge seems to be promising. A new approach for model and parameter evaluation based on explicit simulation of the spatial stream network was tested in four different catchments in Germany. In a first step, spatial explicit modelling of stream networks was performed using a simplified version of the process-based model Hill-Vi together with regional climate normals. The simulated networks were compared to mapped stream networks and their degree of spatial agreement was evaluated. Significant differences between good and poor simulations could be distinguished and the corresponding parameter sets relate well with the hydrogeological properties of the catchments. The optimized parameters were subsequently used to simulate daily discharge using an observed time series of precipitation and air temperature. The performance was evaluated against observed discharge and water balance. This approach shows some promising results but also some limitations. Although the model's parsimonious model structure should to be further improved regarding discharge recession and evapotranspiration, the performance was similar to the regionalisation methods. Stream network modelling, which has minimal data requirements, seems to be a reasonable alternative for model development and parameter evaluation in ungauged basins.

  14. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  15. Calibration of hydrologic models using flow-duration curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerberg, I.; Younger, P.; Guerrero, J.; Beven, K.; Seibert, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.

    2010-12-01

    The usefulness of hydrological models depends on their skill to mimic real-world hydrology as attested by some efficiency criterion. The suitability of traditional criteria, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, for model calibration has been much debated. Discharge data are plentiful for a few decades around the 1970’s but much less available in the last decades since the reported number of discharge stations in the world has gone down substantially from the peak in the late 1970’s. At the same time global precipitation and climate data such as TRMM and ERA-Interim, used to drive hydrological models, have become more readily available in the last 10-20 years. This mismatch of observation time periods makes traditional model calibration difficult or even impossible for basins where there are no overlapping periods of model input and evaluation data. A new calibration method is proposed here that addresses this mismatch and at the same time accounts for uncertainty in discharge data. An estimation of the discharge-data uncertainty is used as a basis to set limits of acceptability for observed flow-duration curves. These limits are then used for model calibration and evaluation within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. Advantages of the new approach include less risk of bias because of epistemic (knowledge) type input-output errors (e.g. no simulated discharge for an observed flow peak because of no rain gauges in the only part of the catchment where it rained), a calibration that addresses the model performance for the whole flow regime (low, medium and high flows) simultaneously and a more realistic uncertainty estimation since discharge uncertainty is addressed. The new method is most suitable for water-balance model applications. Additional limits of acceptability for snow-routine parameters will be needed in basins with snow and frozen soils.

  16. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  17. Progressive refining of spatial and temporal resolutions in a hydrological model: how far should we go?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lavenne, Alban; Ficchi, Andrea; Goullet, Julien

    2017-04-01

    Choosing a modelling resolution for an hydrological model is an important preliminary question. However, it is quite often arbitrary determined by the modeller experience according to the objective, the model capacity or the available measurements. The hydrological literature provides numerous studies which focus on the effect of refining either spatial resolution or (sometimes) temporal resolution in order to better catch hydrological response. In this study, we investigate the impact of changing simultaneously both resolutions on hydrological model performance. The idea is that these resolutions are linked and should be considered together. Thus, we look for the combination of spatial and temporal resolutions fitting at best each catchment behaviour and type of rainfall events. A large data set of 240 catchments scattered all around France is used, and in particular, we benefit from a high-resolution precipitation database (ANTILOPE, Météo-France) that describes hourly precipitation at 1 km2 resolution. Data were aggregated at different time steps (1h, 3h, 6h, 12h and 24h). Streamflow simulations are performed at these different time steps using the GR5 model in its lumped and semi-distributed version (GRSD, de Lavenne et al. (2016)), with a mesh grid of 500, 250, 100 and 50 km2. Ten different indices are used to describe spatio-temporal characteristics of rainfall events, in order to analyse in which contexts refined resolutions are needed to improve the performance of the model. These indices characterise the spatial variability, localisation, movement, intensity and temporal variability of rainfall events. In addition to some indices already reported in the hydrological literature, we propose some new indices like an indice usually applied in economics. This analysis at different time steps, events and catchments demonstrates the limits for some of them and allows to propose some corrections (Goullet J., 2016). Model performances are shown to be

  18. Misrepresentation and amendment of soil moisture in conceptual hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Although many conceptual models are very effective in simulating river runoff, their soil moisture schemes are generally not realistic in comparison with the reality (i.e., getting the right answers for the wrong reasons). This study reveals two significant misrepresentations in those models through a case study using the Xinanjiang model which is representative of many well-known conceptual hydrological models. The first is the setting of the upper limit of its soil moisture at the field capacity, due to the 'holding excess runoff' concept (i.e., runoff begins on repletion of its storage to the field capacity). The second is neglect of capillary rise of water movement. A new scheme is therefore proposed to overcome those two issues. The amended model is as effective as its original form in flow modelling, but represents more logically realistic soil water processes. The purpose of the study is to enable the hydrological model to get the right answers for the right reasons. Therefore, the new model structure has a better capability in potentially assimilating soil moisture observations to enhance its real-time flood forecasting accuracy. The new scheme is evaluated in the Pontiac catchment of the USA through a comparison with satellite observed soil moisture. The correlation between the XAJ and the observed soil moisture is enhanced significantly from 0.64 to 0.70. In addition, a new soil moisture term called SMDS (Soil Moisture Deficit to Saturation) is proposed to complement the conventional SMD (Soil Moisture Deficit).

  19. Hydrological and erosional response of a small catchment in Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licciardello, Feliciana; Marcello Zimbone, Santo; Barbagallo, Salvatore; Gallart, Francesc

    2014-05-01

    More than 1/5 of the Italian territory is at risk of desertification involving over 40% of the South. Climate change is expected to worsen the desertification trend already observed. In Sicily, for instance, the semi-arid territory extension had been gradually increasing in the period from 1931 to 2000 up to 20% of the regional territory. Parallel to this, territories classified as humid decreased by 30%. A better knowledge of soil erosion by water is essential for planning effective soil and water conservation practices in semi-arid environment, where accurate soil loss predictions are difficult particularly in the absence of minimal data. In order to give a contribute to the understanding of hydrological and erosional dynamics in Mediterranean areas, a monitoring program of a small catchment started in 1996. The Cannata catchment (1.30 km2) is a mountainous tributary, ephemeral in flow, of the Flascio River located in eastern Sicily. Climate is Mediterranean semi-arid with a mean annual precipitation (1996-2005), measured in three different sites, equal to 715 ± 163 mm mainly falling between October and January. Mean monthly temperature is between 3°C (January) and 24°C (August). Land use monitoring highlighted the prevalence of pasture areas (ranging between 87% and 92% of the catchment area during the monitoring period). In the Cannata catchment the elevation ranges between 903 m and 1270 m above mean sea level with an average land slope of 21%. Water discharge has been measured continuously for about 10 years at the outlet of the catchment by means of a hydrometrograph station connected to a runoff water automatic sampler for the measurement of sediment concentration in the flow. Precipitation has a typically Mediterranean seasonal pattern, being minimal in summer and maximal in winter. Monthly runoff follows the pattern of precipitation although somewhat delayed during autumn due to the effect of water deficit in summer. The analysis of the 170 runoff

  20. Evaluation of a hydrological model based on Bidirectional Reach (BReach)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Eerdenbrugh, Katrien; Van Hoey, Stijn; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2016-04-01

    Evaluation and discrimination of model structures is crucial to ensure an appropriate use of hydrological models. When evaluating model results by aggregating their quality in (a subset of) individual observations, overall results of this analysis sometimes conceal important detailed information about model structural deficiencies. Analyzing model results within their local (time) context can uncover this detailed information. In this research, a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach) is proposed to evaluate and analyze results of a hydrological model by assessing the maximum left and right reach in each observation point that is used for model evaluation. These maximum reaches express the capability of the model to describe a subset of the evaluation data both in the direction of the previous (left) and of the following data (right). This capability is evaluated on two levels. First, on the level of individual observations, the combination of a parameter set and an observation is classified as non-acceptable if the deviation between the accompanying model result and the measurement exceeds observational uncertainty. Second, the behavior in a sequence of observations is evaluated by means of a tolerance degree. This tolerance degree expresses the condition for satisfactory model behavior in a data series and is defined by the percentage of observations within this series that can have non-acceptable model results. Based on both criteria, the maximum left and right reaches of a model in an observation represent the data points in the direction of the previous respectively the following observations beyond which none of the sampled parameter sets both are satisfactory and result in an acceptable deviation. After assessing these reaches for a variety of tolerance degrees, results can be plotted in a combined BReach plot that show temporal changes in the behavior of model results. The methodology is applied on a Probability Distributed Model (PDM) of the river

  1. Parameter estimation of hydrologic models using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaheil, Y. H.

    2005-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with the modeling of hydrologic systems sometimes demand that data should be incorporated in an on-line fashion in order to understand the behavior of the system. This paper represents a Bayesian strategy to estimate parameters for hydrologic models in an iterative mode. The paper presents a modified technique called localized Bayesian recursive estimation (LoBaRE) that efficiently identifies the optimum parameter region, avoiding convergence to a single best parameter set. The LoBaRE methodology is tested for parameter estimation for two different types of models: a support vector machine (SVM) model for predicting soil moisture, and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for estimating streamflow. The SAC-SMA model has 13 parameters that must be determined. The SVM model has three parameters. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the best parameter set in an iterative fashion. This is done by narrowing the sampling space by imposing uncertainty bounds on the posterior best parameter set and/or updating the "parent" bounds based on their fitness. The new approach results in fast convergence towards the optimal parameter set using minimum training/calibration data and evaluation of fewer parameter sets. The efficacy of the localized methodology is also compared with the previously used Bayesian recursive estimation (BaRE) algorithm.

  2. Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty: STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY DIAGNOSTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moges, Edom [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Demissie, Yonas [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-04-01

    In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. The results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

  3. Utilizing NEXRAD-based QPEs and short-term QPFs in a TIN-based Distributed Hydrologic Model for Hydrologic Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivoni, E. R.; Grassotti, C.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Van Horne, M.; Bras, R. L.; Entekhabi, D.; Hoffman, R. N.

    2001-12-01

    The principal reasons motivating the use of meteorological radar for hydrologic modeling have been the potential for extending the spatial and temporal coverage of rainfall data as compared to sparse rain gauge networks. NEXRAD reflectivity measurements and derived rainfall products open the door to real-time availability of extensive rainfall coverage over watersheds in the United States. For hydrologic modeling purposes, the value of radar rainfall data is increased with the use of distributed hydrologic models capable of ingesting this new data source and taking full advantage of its spatial and temporal variability. This study presents preliminary results of applying a TIN-based distributed model with quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) and short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) derived from two radar rainfall products (operational Stage III estimates produced by the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center, and commercially available NOWrad estimates marketed by WSI, Inc.). Although both are based on NEXRAD reflectivity measurements, the NEXRAD Stage III and the WSI rainfall products can at times differ considerably in their estimation of the values and distribution of rainfall. Comparisons will be presented of the two radar rainfall products for a selected set of storm events in multiple basins within the Arkansas Red-River watershed. In addition, the difference in the forecasted rainfall fields (nowcasts product) derived from the MIT Lincoln Lab Storm Growth and Decay Model will be presented. Hydrologic modeling predictions from the use of the TIN-based, Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) with the rainfall estimates and forecasts will be also be discussed in light of the differences in the rainfall inputs. Through this study, the strengths and/or weaknesses of two different radar rainfall sources and their corresponding short-term extrapolations will be highlighted as they relate to the interior hydrologic response and

  4. Advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling: findings from the 11th workshop on large-scale hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Döll, P.; Berkhoff, K.; Bormann, H.; Fohrer, N.; Gerten, D.; Hagemann, S.; Krol, Martinus S.

    2008-01-01

    Large-scale hydrological modelling has become increasingly wide-spread during the last decade. An annual workshop series on large-scale hydrological modelling has provided, since 1997, a forum to the German-speaking community for discussing recent developments and achievements in this research area.

  5. Conceptualizing Peatlands in a Physically-Based Spatially Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downer, Charles; Wahl, Mark

    2017-04-01

    In as part of a research effort focused on climate change effects on permafrost near Fairbanks, Alaska, it became apparent that peat soils, overlain by thick sphagnum moss, had a considerable effect on the overall hydrology. Peatlands represent a confounding mixture of vegetation, soils, and water that present challenges for conceptualizing and parametrizing hydrologic models. We employed the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis Model (GSSHA) in our analysis of the Caribou Poker Creek Experimental Watershed (CPCRW). GSSHA is a physically-based, spatially distributed, watershed model developed by the U.S. Army to simulate important streamflow-generating processes (Downer and Ogden, 2004). The model enables simulation of surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as soil temperature and frozen ground effects on subsurface water movement. The test site is a 104 km2 basin located in the Yukon-Tanana Uplands of the Northern Plateaus Physiographic Province centered on 65˚10' N latitude and 147˚30' W longitude. The area lies above the Chattanika River floodplain and is characterized by rounded hilltops with gentle slopes and alluvium-floored valleys having minimal relief (Wahrhaftig, 1965) underlain by a mica shist of the Birch Creek formation (Rieger et al., 1972). The region has a cold continental climate characterized by short warm summers and long cold winters. Observed stream flows indicated significant groundwater contribution with sustained base flows even during dry periods. A site visit exposed the presence of surface water flows indicating a mixed basin that would require both surface and subsurface simulation capability to properly capture the response. Soils in the watershed are predominately silt loam underlain by shallow fractured bedrock. Throughout much of the basin, a thick layer of live sphagnum moss and fine peat covers the ground surface. A restrictive layer of permafrost is found on north facing slopes. The combination of thick

  6. Hydrological responses to climate change in Mt. Elgon watersheds

    OpenAIRE

    J. Musau; Sang, J.; J. Gathenya; Luedeling, E

    2015-01-01

    Study Region: The Upper catchments of the Nzoia River basin in western Kenya. Study Focus: The potential streamflow responses