Sample records for modeling hydrologic responses

  1. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the ...

  2. Modeling low impact development potential with hydrological response units. (United States)

    Eric, Marija; Fan, Celia; Joksimovic, Darko; Li, James Y


    Evaluations of benefits of implementing low impact development (LID) stormwater management techniques can extend up to a watershed scale. This presents a challenge for representing them in watershed models, since they are typically orders of magnitude smaller in size. This paper presents an approach that is focused on trying to evaluate the benefits of implementing LIDs on a lot level. The methodology uses the concept of urban hydrological response Unit and results in developing and applying performance curves that are a function of lot properties to estimate the potential benefit of large-scale LID implementation. Lot properties are determined using a municipal geographic information system database and processed to determine groups of lots with similar properties. A representative lot from each group is modeled over a typical rainfall year using USEPA Stormwater Management Model to develop performance functions that relate the lot properties and the change in annual runoff volume and corresponding phosphorus loading with different LIDs implemented. The results of applying performance functions on all urban areas provide the potential locations, benefit and cost of implementation of all LID techniques, guiding future decisions for LID implementation by watershed area municipalities.

  3. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological pro- cesses in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modelling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment.

  4. Sensitivity of Hydrologic Response to Climate Model Debiasing Procedures (United States)

    Channell, K.; Gronewold, A.; Rood, R. B.; Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.; Hunter, T.


    Climate change is already having a profound impact on the global hydrologic cycle. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, changes in long-term evaporation and precipitation can lead to rapid water level fluctuations in the lakes, as evidenced by unprecedented change in water levels seen in the last two decades. These fluctuations often have an adverse impact on the region's human, environmental, and economic well-being, making accurate long-term water level projections invaluable to regional water resources management planning. Here we use hydrological components from a downscaled climate model (GFDL-CM3/WRF), to obtain future water supplies for the Great Lakes. We then apply a suite of bias correction procedures before propagating these water supplies through a routing model to produce lake water levels. Results using conventional bias correction methods suggest that water levels will decline by several feet in the coming century. However, methods that reflect the seasonal water cycle and explicitly debias individual hydrological components (overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, runoff) imply that future water levels may be closer to their historical average. This discrepancy between debiased results indicates that water level forecasts are highly influenced by the bias correction method, a source of sensitivity that is commonly overlooked. Debiasing, however, does not remedy misrepresentation of the underlying physical processes in the climate model that produce these biases and contribute uncertainty to the hydrological projections. This uncertainty coupled with the differences in water level forecasts from varying bias correction methods are important for water management and long term planning in the Great Lakes region.

  5. Modeling non-linear growth responses to temperature and hydrology in wetland trees (United States)

    Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.


    Growth responses of wetland trees to flooding and climate variations are difficult to model because they depend on multiple, apparently interacting factors, but are a critical link in hydrological control of wetland carbon budgets. To more generally understand tree growth to hydrological forcing, we modeled non-linear responses of tree ring growth to flooding and climate at sub-annual time steps, using Vaganov-Shashkin response functions. We calibrated the model to six baldcypress tree-ring chronologies from two hydrologically distinct sites in southern Louisiana, and tested several hypotheses of plasticity in wetlands tree responses to interacting environmental variables. The model outperformed traditional multiple linear regression. More importantly, optimized response parameters were generally similar among sites with varying hydrological conditions, suggesting generality to the functions. Model forms that included interacting responses to multiple forcing factors were more effective than were single response functions, indicating the principle of a single limiting factor is not correct in wetlands and both climatic and hydrological variables must be considered in predicting responses to hydrological or climate change.

  6. Calibration by Hydrological Response Unit of a National Hydrologic Model to Improve Spatial Representation and Distribution of Parameters (United States)

    Norton, P. A., II


    The U. S. Geological Survey is developing a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support consistent hydrologic modeling across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) simulates daily hydrologic and energy processes in watersheds, and is used for the NHM application. For PRMS each watershed is divided into hydrologic response units (HRUs); by default each HRU is assumed to have a uniform hydrologic response. The Geospatial Fabric (GF) is a database containing initial parameter values for input to PRMS and was created for the NHM. The parameter values in the GF were derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire CONUS. The NHM application is composed of more than 100,000 HRUs from the GF. Selected parameter values commonly are adjusted by basin in PRMS using an automated calibration process based on calibration targets, such as streamflow. Providing each HRU with distinct values that captures variability within the CONUS may improve simulation performance of the NHM. During calibration of the NHM by HRU, selected parameter values are adjusted for PRMS based on calibration targets, such as streamflow, snow water equivalent (SWE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). Simulated SWE, AET, and runoff were compared to value ranges derived from multiple sources (e.g. the Snow Data Assimilation System, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (i.e. MODIS) Global Evapotranspiration Project, the Simplified Surface Energy Balance model, and the Monthly Water Balance Model). This provides each HRU with a distinct set of parameter values that captures the variability within the CONUS, leading to improved model performance. We present simulation results from the NHM after preliminary calibration, including the results of basin-level calibration for the NHM using: 1) default initial GF parameter values, and 2) parameter values calibrated by HRU.

  7. Hydrologic responses of large drainage to clearcutting: a modeling perspective (United States)

    J. Duan; R. R. Ziemer; G. E. Grant


    As forested watersheds become more intensively managed, it is increaseingly important to understand the range of hydrologic impacts in order to maintain the biodiversity and sustainability of these forested systems. Paired-watershed studies are often used to evaluate effects of timber harvest on watershed processes.

  8. Impact of precipitation spatial resolution on the hydrological response of an integrated distributed water resources model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fu, Suhua; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh


    Precipitation is a key input variable to hydrological models, and the spatial variability of the input is expected to impact the hydrological response predicted by a distributed model. In this study, the effect of spatial resolution of precipitation on runoff , recharge and groundwater head...... was analyzed in the Alergaarde catchment in Denmark. Six different precipitation spatial resolutions were used as inputs to a physically based, distributed hydrological model, the MIKE SHE model. The results showed that the resolution of precipitation input had no apparent effect on annual water balance...... of the total catchment and runoff discharge hydrograph at watershed outlet. On the other hand, groundwater recharge and groundwater head were both aff ected. The impact of the spatial resolution of precipitation input is reduced with increasing catchment size. The effect on stream discharge is relatively low...

  9. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    cesses in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modelling ... have significantly altered the land system, impairing, inter-alia, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was ..... zone is modelled as linear ground water reservoir.

  10. Hydrological modelling in forested systems (United States)

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological p...

  11. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface......Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... hydrological and tested by assimilating synthetic hydraulic head observations in a catchment in Denmark. Assimilation led to a substantial reduction of model prediction error, and better model forecasts. Also, a new assimilation scheme is developed to downscale and bias-correct coarse satellite derived soil...

  12. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...... hydrological and tested by assimilating synthetic hydraulic head observations in a catchment in Denmark. Assimilation led to a substantial reduction of model prediction error, and better model forecasts. Also, a new assimilation scheme is developed to downscale and bias-correct coarse satellite derived soil...

  13. Linking hydrologic and bedload transport models to simulate fluvial response to changing precipitation (United States)

    Wickert, A. D.; Ng, G. H. C.; Tofelde, S.; Savi, S.; Schildgen, T. F.; Alonso, R. N.; Strecker, M. R.


    Changes in precipitation can drive river aggradation or incision through their influence on both hillslope processes, which supply sediment to the channel, and sediment transport capacity, which moves sediment downstream. Whether a particular change in precipitation intensity and/or duration will result in aggradation or incision is difficult to predict due to these competing effects. In particular, fluvial response to climate change is sensitive to (1) thresholds and nonlinearities involved in sediment production and sediment transport, (2) how different modes of sediment production affect the grain size of the sediment provided to the channel, and (3) impacts of drainage basin geometry on sediment storage time and locations of rapid sediment production and/or transport. A better mechanistic understanding of the relationship between rainfall and river bed elevation changes will help us to understand modern river channel response to climate change and decipher the causes for fluvial terrace formation. Here we couple a hydrologic model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), with a model of sediment transport through a fluvial network, sedFlow, to predict patterns of bed elevation change. We first perform schematic example simulations on an idealized synthetic landscape with a single river channel to show how simple fluvial systems can respond to changes in rainfall. We then expand these numerical tests to full fluvial networks, in which the segments of the tributary network propagate signals of aggradation and incision, leading to a more complex response that embodies the interference between magnitudes and time-scales of sediment transfer in the tributary links. We showcase the possible complexity of the fluvial response with an example from the Quebrada del Toro of NW Argentina, which is currently experiencing rapid and spatially-variable aggradation and incision, possibly in response to an increase in extreme rainfall events in the east-central Andes.

  14. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  15. SEHR-ECHO v1.0: a Spatially-Explicit Hydrologic Response model for ecohydrologic applications (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina; Nicótina, Ludovico; Da Ronco, Pierfrancesco; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea


    We present here the SEHR-ECHO model, which stands for Spatially Explicit Hydrologic Response (SEHR) model developed at the Laboratory of Ecohydrology (ECHO) of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. The model is being developed for the spatially-explicit simulation of streamflow and transport processes at the catchment scale. The key concept of the model is the formulation of water transport by geomorphologic travel time distributions: the mobilization of water (and possibly dissolved solutes) is simulated at the subcatchment scale and the resulting responses are convolved with the travel paths distribution within the river network to obtain the hydrologic response at the catchment outlet. The Matlab source code of the current version for alpine streamflow simulation is already freely available. A truly free open source version using Python will become available in the future.

  16. netherland hydrological modeling instrument (United States)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.


    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  17. Modeling SST gradient changes, the hydrological cycle response, and deep water formation in the North Pacific (United States)

    Burls, N.; Ford, H. L.; Fedorov, A. V.; Jahn, A.; Jacobs, P.


    The absence of deep-water formation and a deep meridional overturning cell in the modern North Pacific has been attributed to the relatively fresh surface conditions in the subarctic. These conditions are, in turn, best explained by the local excess of precipitation over evaporation in the northern Pacific due to net moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific and/or moisture transport associated with the Asian monsoon. Some studies link the lack of deep-water formation in the Pacific directly to its occurrence in the Atlantic via the Atlantic-Pacific seesaw effect and idealized experiments indicate that the smaller width of the Atlantic predisposes it to higher salinity and deep-water formation. We have conducted a series of coupled model experiments across which global mean temperatures and large-scale meridional SST gradients are varied. We perturb either atmospheric CO2 concentrations or the meridional gradient in cloud radiative forcing and run each experiment out to 3000 years so that the deep ocean has equilibrated. As the strength of the meridional temperature gradient decreases across our experiments, a Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation develops. The strength of this Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation generally increases as the gradient weakens. In one of these experiments where the meridional SST gradient most closely resembles Pliocene reconstructions, a PMOC exists of comparable in strength to the modern AMOC. We will describe how the hydrological cycle response to reduced meridional SST gradients acts to increase the strength of the PMOC across our sensitivity experiments. Additionally, we will discuss our effort to include carbon isotopes in our Pliocene-like simulation for data-model comparisons. Calcium carbonate accumulation data from Subarctic North Pacific Site 882 and new and previously published carbon isotope records from the Pacific appear to support our modelling results suggesting that weaker meridonal SST gradients

  18. Hydrological models are mediating models (United States)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.


    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  19. Effects of Energy Development on Hydrologic Response: a Multi-Scale Modeling Approach (United States)

    Vithanage, J.; Miller, S. N.; Berendsen, M.; Caffrey, P. A.; Bellis, J.; Schuler, R.


    Potential impacts of energy development on surface hydrology in western Wyoming were assessed using spatially explicit hydrological models. Currently there are proposals to develop over 800 new oil and gas wells in the 218,000 acre-sized LaBarge development area that abuts the Wyoming Range and contributes runoff to the Upper Green River (approximately 1 well per 2 square miles). The intensity of development raises questions relating to impacts on the hydrological cycle, water quality, erosion and sedimentation. We developed landscape management scenarios relating to current disturbance and proposed actions put forth by the energy operators to provide inputs to spatially explicit hydrologic models. Differences between the scenarios were derived to quantify the changes and analyse the impacts to the project area. To perform this research, the Automated Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA) was enhanced by adding different management practices suitable for the region, including the reclamation of disturbed lands over time. The AGWA interface was used to parameterize and execute two hydrologic models: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2). We used freely available data including SSURGO soils, Multi-Resolution Landscape Consortium (MRLC) land cover, and 10m resolution terrain data to derive suitable initial parameters for the models. The SWAT model was manually calibrated using an innovative method at the monthly level; observed daily rainfall and temperature inputs were used as a function of elevation considering the local climate effects. Higher temporal calibration was not possible due to a lack of adequate climate and runoff data. The Nash Sutcliff efficiencies of two calibrated watersheds at the monthly scale exceeded 0.95. Results of the AGWA/SWAT simulations indicate a range of sensitivity to disturbance due to heterogeneous soil and terrain characteristics over a simulated time period of 10 years. The KINEROS

  20. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology (United States)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh


    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  1. Modelling the hydrologic response of a mesoscale Andean watershed to changes in land use patterns for environmental planning (United States)

    Stehr, A.; Aguayo, M.; Link, O.; Parra, O.; Romero, F.; Alcayaga, H.


    A multidisciplinary approach is followed for analysis of the effect of changes in land use patterns on the hydrologic response of the Vergara watershed (4340 km2) located in central Chile. Probable future land use scenarios were generated using heuristic rules and logistic regression models, in order to identify and represent the main pressure on the watershed, namely forestation of extensive areas used for agriculture with rapid growing exotic species. The hydrologic response of the watershed was computed with a physically based distributed precipitation-runoff model, which was calibrated and validated for the current period. Results show that mean annual discharge increase with agricultural land use and diminish with introduced forest coverage. Thus, forestation of areas with introduced species like Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus globulus might be regulated in order to protect the water resources of the watershed.

  2. Thermal-hydrological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buscheck, T., LLNL


    This chapter describes the physical processes and natural and engineered system conditions that affect thermal-hydrological (T-H) behavior in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain and how these effects are represented in mathematical and numerical models that are used to predict T-H conditions in the near field, altered zone, and engineered barrier system (EBS), and on waste package (WP) surfaces.

  3. Subdivision of Texas watersheds for hydrologic modeling. (United States)


    The purpose of this report is to present a set of findings and examples for subdivision of watersheds for hydrologic modeling. Three approaches were used to examine the impact of watershed subdivision on modeled hydrologic response: (1) An equal-area...

  4. The hydrological response to precipitations of a layered shallow sloping deposit: physical experiments and mathematical modeling (United States)

    Damiano, Emilia; Greco, Roberto; Guida, Andrea; Olivares, Lucio; Picarelli, Luciano


    shallow landslides are sometimes triggered by intense and long-lasting precipitations. Several studies have already pointed out that layering may play a crucial role in the development of the infiltration process, as the coarse-grained pumice layers may behave as capillary barriers, leading to the formation of perched saturated zones. The hydrological behavior of such kind of layered slopes is investigated by means of small-scale infiltration experiments carried out in an instrumented flume in the laboratory. The interpretation of the experimental results is made with the help of a mathematical model of 2-D Richards equation, which allows shedding some light in the hydraulic properties of the pumices, which are hardly measurable with standard laboratory techniques. The obtained results show how, depending on initial moisture conditions, slope inclination angle and applied rainfall intensity, the response of the slope may be very different, and that the formation of a capillary barrier is not always observed.


    Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits or consequences. Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extensive data requirements and the difficult task of building input parameter files, however, have long been an obstacle to the timely and cost-effective use of such complex models by resource managers. The U.S. EPA Landscape Ecology Branch in collaboration with the USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center has developed a geographic information system (GIS) tool to facilitate this process. A GIS provides the framework within which spatially distributed data are collected and used to prepare model input files, and model results are evaluated. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool uses widely available standardized spatial datasets that can be obtained via the internet at no cost to the user. The data are used to develop input parameter files for KINEROS2 and SWAT, two watershed runoff and erosion simulation models that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. AGWA automates the process of transforming digital data into simulation model results and provides a visualization tool

  6. Watershed sensitivity and hydrologic response to high-resolution climate model (United States)

    Troin, M.; Caya, D.


    Global climate models (GCMs) are fundamental research tools to assess climate change impacts on water resources. Regional climate models (RCMs) are complementary to GCMs. The added benefit of RCMs for hydrological applications is still not well understood because watersheds respond differently to RCM experiments. It is expected that the new generation of RCMs improve the representation of climate processes making it more attractive for impact studies. Given the cost of RCMs, it is ascertain to identify whether high-resolution RCMs allow offering more details than what is simulated in GCMs or RCMs with coarser resolution to address impacts on water resources. This study aims to assess the added value of RCM with emphasis on using high-resolution climate models. More specifically is how the hydrological cycle is represented when the resolution in climate models is increased (45 vs 200km; 15 vs 45km). We used simulations from the Canadian RCM (CRCM) driven by reanalyses integrated on high-resolution domains (45 and 15km) and CRCM driven by multiple members of two GCMs (the Canadian CGCM3; the German ECHAM5) with a horizontal resolution of 45 km. CRCM data and data from their host GCMs are compared to observation over 1971-2000. Precipitation and temperature from CRCM and GCMs' simulations are inputted into the hydrological SWAT model to simulate streamflow in watersheds for the historical period. The selected watersheds are two basins in Quebec (QC) and one basin in British Columbia (BC), Canada. CRCM-45km driven by GCMs performs well in representing precipitation but shows a cold bias of 3.3°C. Such bias in temperature is more significant for the BC basin (4.5°C) due to the Rocky Mountains. For the CRCM-45km/GCM combination (CGCM3 or ECHAM5), comparable skills in reproducing the observed climate are identified even though CGCM3 analyzed alone provides more accurate indication of climatology in the basins than ECHAM5. When we compared to GCMs results, CRCM-45km

  7. Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model (United States)

    Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.


    A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher

  8. Modeling thermal-hydrological response of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to thermal load at a potential repository. (United States)

    Haukwa, C B; Wu, Yu-Shu; Bodvarsson, G S


    This paper presents a numerical study on the response of the unsaturated zone (UZ) system of Yucca Mountain to heat generated from decaying radioactive wastes emplaced at the proposed repository. The modeling study is based on the current thermal-hydrological (TH) mountain-scale model, which uses a locally refined 2D north-south cross-section and dual-permeability numerical approach. The model provides a prediction of the mountain-scale TH response under the thermal-load scenario of 1.45 kW/m, while accounting for future climatic changes and the effects of drift ventilation. The TH simulation results show that ventilation of the repository drifts has a large impact on thermal-hydrologic regimes and moisture-flow conditions at the repository. In both cases, with and without ventilation, the TH model predicts dry or reduced liquid saturation near the drifts for over 1000 years, during which liquid flux through the drifts is reduced to either zero or less than the ambient flux. Without ventilation, the model predicts higher temperatures at the repository, but no major moisture redistribution in the UZ except in the areas very near the heated drifts.

  9. Modeling hydrologic responses to deforestation/forestation and climate change at multiple scales in the Southern US and China (United States)

    Ge Sun; Steven McNulty; Jianbiao Lu; James Vose; Devendra Amayta; Guoyi Zhou; Zhiqiang Zhang


    Watershed management and restoration practices require a clear understanding of the basic eco-hydrologic processes and ecosystem responses to disturbances at multiple scales (Bruijnzeel, 2004; Scott et al., 2005). Worldwide century-long forest hydrologic research has documented that deforestation and forestation (i.e. reforestation and afforestation) can have variable...

  10. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    .D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph...... change (DC) approach. These climate model projections were then used to force hydrological simulations under climate change for the island Sjælland in Denmark to analyse the contribution of different climate models and bias correction methods to overall uncertainty in the hydrological change modelling...

  11. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...... change (DC) approach. These climate model projections were then used to force hydrological simulations under climate change for the island Sjælland in Denmark to analyse the contribution of different climate models and bias correction methods to overall uncertainty in the hydrological change modelling...

  12. Data assimilation in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, Jean-Philippe

    Data assimilation is an invaluable tool in hydrological modelling as it allows to efficiently combine scarce data with a numerical model to obtain improved model predictions. In addition, data assimilation also provides an uncertainty analysis of the predictions made by the hydrological model...... with model non-linearities and biased errors. A literature review analyzes the most popular techniques and their application in hydrological modelling. Since bias is an important problem in groundwater modelling, two bias aware Kalman filters have been implemented and compared using an artificial test case...

  13. Modeling Pre- and Post- Wildfire Hydrologic Response to Vegetation Change in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM (United States)

    Gregory, A. E.; Benedict, K. K.; Zhang, S.; Savickas, J.


    Large scale, high severity wildfires in forests have become increasingly prevalent in the western United States due to fire exclusion. Although past work has focused on the immediate consequences of wildfire (ie. runoff magnitude and debris flow), little has been done to understand the post wildfire hydrologic consequences of vegetation regrowth. Furthermore, vegetation is often characterized by static parameterizations within hydrological models. In order to understand the temporal relationship between hydrologic processes and revegetation, we modularized and partially automated the hydrologic modeling process to increase connectivity between remotely sensed data, the Virtual Watershed Platform (a data management resource, called the VWP), input meteorological data, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This process was used to run simulations in the Valles Caldera of NM, an area impacted by the 2011 Las Conchas Fire, in PRMS before and after the Las Conchas to evaluate hydrologic process changes. The modeling environment addressed some of the existing challenges faced by hydrological modelers. At present, modelers are somewhat limited in their ability to push the boundaries of hydrologic understanding. Specific issues faced by modelers include limited computational resources to model processes at large spatial and temporal scales, data storage capacity and accessibility from the modeling platform, computational and time contraints for experimental modeling, and the skills to integrate modeling software in ways that have not been explored. By taking an interdisciplinary approach, we were able to address some of these challenges by leveraging the skills of hydrologic, data, and computer scientists; and the technical capabilities provided by a combination of on-demand/high-performance computing, distributed data, and cloud services. The hydrologic modeling process was modularized to include options for distributing meteorological data, parameter space

  14. Hydrological modeling in forested systems (United States)

    H.E. Golden; G.R. Evenson; S. Tian; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun


    Characterizing and quantifying interactions among components of the forest hydrological cycle is complex and usually requires a combination of field monitoring and modelling approaches (Weiler and McDonnell, 2004; National Research Council, 2008). Models are important tools for testing hypotheses, understanding hydrological processes and synthesizing experimental data...

  15. Hydrological Responses of Andean Lakes and Tropical Floodplains to Climate Variability and Human Intervention: an Integrative Modelling Framework (United States)

    Hoyos, I. C.; González Morales, C.; Serna López, J. P.; Duque, C. L.; Canon Barriga, J. E.; Dominguez, F.


    Andean water bodies in tropical regions are significantly influenced by fluctuations associated with climatic and anthropogenic drivers, which implies long term changes in mountain snow peaks, land covers and ecosystems, among others. Our work aims at providing an integrative framework to realistically assess the possible future of natural water bodies with different degrees of human intervention. We are studying in particular the evolution of three water bodies in Colombia: two Andean lakes and a floodplain wetland. These natural reservoirs represent the accumulated effect of hydrological processes in their respective basins, which exhibit different patterns of climate variability and distinct human intervention and environmental histories. Modelling the hydrological responses of these local water bodies to climate variability and human intervention require an understanding of the strong linkage between geophysical and social factors. From the geophysical perspective, the challenge is how to downscale global climate projections in the local context: complex orography and relative lack of data. To overcome this challenge we combine the correlational and physically based analysis of several sources of spatially distributed biophysical and meteorological information to accurately determine aspects such as moisture sources and sinks and past, present and future local precipitation and temperature regimes. From the social perspective, the challenge is how to adequately represent and incorporate into the models the likely response of social agents whose water-related interests are diverse and usually conflictive. To deal with the complexity of these systems we develop interaction matrices, which are useful tools to holistically discuss and represent each environment as a complex system. Our goal is to assess partially the uncertainties of the hydrological balances in these intervened water bodies we establish climate/social scenarios, using hybrid models that combine

  16. Hydrological response to dynamical downscaling of climate model outputs: A case study for western and eastern snowmelt-dominated Canada catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magali Troin


    New hydrological insights for the region: Results show that the CRCM captures the primary features of observed climate, but there are significant biases. Most noteworthy are a positive bias in precipitation and a negative bias in temperature over the BC basin. When looking at the hydrological modeling results, the benefit of using the RCM versus GCMs emerged distinctly for the mountainous BC basin where the RCM is preferred over the GCMs. The sensitivity experiments show that uncertainty in the GCM/RCM’s internal variability must be assessed to provide suitable regional hydrological responses to climate change.

  17. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan


    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...

  18. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.


    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  19. The dielectric calibration of capacitance probes for soil hydrology using an oscillation frequency response model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Robinson


    Full Text Available Capacitance probes are a fast, safe and relatively inexpensive means of measuring the relative permittivity of soils, which can then be used to estimate soil water content. Initial experiments with capacitance probes used empirical calibrations between the frequency response of the instrument and soil water content. This has the disadvantage that the calibrations are instrument-dependent. A twofold calibration strategy is described in this paper; the instrument frequency is turned into relative permittivity (dielectric constant which can then be calibrated against soil water content. This approach offers the advantages of making the second calibration, from soil permittivity to soil water content. instrument-independent and allows comparison with other dielectric methods, such as time domain reflectometry. A physically based model, used to calibrate capacitance probes in terms of relative permittivity (εr is presented. The model, which was developed from circuit analysis, predicts, successfully, the frequency response of the instrument in liquids with different relative permittivities, using only measurements in air and water. lt was used successfully to calibrate 10 prototype surface capacitance insertion probes (SCIPS and a depth capacitance probe. The findings demonstrate that the geometric properties of the instrument electrodes were an important parameter in the model, the value of which could be fixed through measurement. The relationship between apparent soil permittivity and volumetric water content has been the subject of much research in the last 30 years. Two lines of investigation have developed, time domain reflectometry (TDR and capacitance. Both methods claim to measure relative permittivity and should therefore be comparable. This paper demonstrates that the IH capacitance probe overestimates relative permittivity as the ionic conductivity of the medium increases. Electrically conducting ionic solutions were used to test the

  20. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  1. gis-based hydrological model based hydrological model upstream

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    its effectiveness in terms of data representation quality of modeling results, hydrological models usually embedded in Geographical Information. (GIS) environment to simulate various parame attributed to a selected catchment. complex technology highly suitable for spatial temporal data analyses and information extractio.

  2. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa


    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains an introduct......In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

  3. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lee


    Full Text Available Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm, precipitation increase (11 and 21 %, and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C, based on regional general circulation model (GCM projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a

  4. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir


    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

  5. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir


    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

  6. A rapid response database in support of post-fire hydrological modeling (United States)

    Mary Ellen Miller; William J. Elliot


    Being prepared for an emergency is important. Every year wildfires threaten homes and lives, but danger persists even after the flames are extinguished. Post-fire flooding and erosion (Figure 1) can threaten lives, property, and natural resources. To respond to this threat, interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams assess potential erosion and flood...

  7. Modeling Hydrological Extremes in the Anthropocene (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto


    Hydrological studies have investigated human impacts on hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and floods, while social studies have explored human responses and adaptation to them. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from two-way feedbacks, i.e. both impacts and responses. Traditional risk assessment methods therefore fail to assess future dynamics, and thus risk reduction strategies built on these methods can lead to unintended consequences in the medium-long term. Here we review the dynamics resulting from the reciprocal links between society and hydrological extremes, and describe initial efforts to model floods and droughts in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both hydrological extremes, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between droughts, foods and reservoir operation rules. Unprecedented opportunities offered by the growing availability of global data and worldwide archives to uncover the mutual shaping of hydrological extremes and society across places and scales are also discussed.

  8. Hydrological modelling in forested systems | Science ... (United States)

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological processes. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically 'forest hydrology models'; that is, physically based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle. Physically based models can be considered those that describe the conservation of mass, momentum and/or energy. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief overview of forest hydrology modeling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically “forest hydrology models”, i.e., physically-based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle.

  9. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate......To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  10. Socio-hydrological flood models (United States)

    Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter


    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Such phenomena cannot be represented by traditional flood risk approaches that are based on scenarios. Instead, dynamic models of the coupled human-flood interactions are needed. These types of models should include both social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, in order to adequately represent the feedbacks and processes that are of importance in human-flood systems. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management by exploring a wider range of possible futures, including unexpected phenomena, than is possible by creating and studying scenarios. New insights might come to light about the long term effects of certain measures on society and the natural system. Here we discuss a dynamic framework for flood risk and review the models that are presented in literature. We propose a way forward for socio-hydrological modelling of the human-flood system.

  11. Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia) (United States)

    Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.


    Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

  12. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian


    on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land......Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...

  13. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling (United States)

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  14. The relation between geometry, hydrology and stability of complex hillslopes examined using low-dimensional hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talebi, A.


    Key words: Hillslope geometry, Hillslope hydrology, Hillslope stability, Complex hillslopes, Modeling shallow landslides, HSB model, HSB-SM model.

    The hydrologic response of a hillslope to rainfall involves a complex, transient saturated-unsaturated interaction that usually leads to a

  15. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.


    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  16. A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.


    The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

  17. CADDIS Volume 2. Sources, Stressors and Responses: Urbanization - Hydrology (United States)

    hydrologic (or flow) changes associated with urbanization, baseflow changes associated with urbanization, water withdrawals and interbasin transfers associated with urbanization, biotic responses to hydrologic (or flow) changes associated with urbanization

  18. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...... the lack of fit in state space formulation, and further support decisions for a model expansion. By using stochastic differential equations to formulate the dynamics of the hydrological system, either the complexity of the model can be increased by including the necessary hydrological processes...... in the model, or formulation of process noise can be considered so that it meets the physical limits of the hydrological system and give an adequate description of the embedded uncertainty in model structure. The thesis consists of two parts: a summary report and a part which contains six scientific papers...

  19. Inter-comparison of experimental catchment data and hydrological modelling (United States)

    Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Ibbitt, Richard; Srinivasan, M. S.; Shankar, Ude


    Hydrological models account for the storage, flow of water and water balance in a catchment, including exchanges of water and energy with the ground, atmosphere and oceans. Because of the need to simplify hydrological models, parameters are often included to help with modelling hydrological processes. Generally the parameters of lumped, semi or distributed hydrological models depend on the values estimated at a gauged location, generally at outlet of the catchment (mostly using discharge). In this approach it is hard to judge how well a model represents internal catchment processes of the hydrological cycle as well as also ignoring the spatial heterogeneity of the catchment. The purpose of the paper is to assess, and potentially improve, the ability of a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model, TopNet, using a spatially and temporally detailed set of field measurements of catchment responses to diverse weather conditions. The TopNet rainfall-runoff model was applied to the Waipara catchment located in the South Island of New Zealand. Observations from field experiments were compared with the simulation results of uncalibrated TopNet model. The total amount of simulated runoff showed reasonable agreement with observations. However, the model overestimated baseflow and underestimated surface flow. The results show that soil moisture variation within the catchment is well represented by the model. However, comparison of the observed water balance with model results show that there is a deficiency in the calculation of evapotranspiration.

  20. Hydrological response to urbanization at different spatio-temporal scales simulated by coupling of CLUE-S and the SWAT model in the Yangtze River Delta region (United States)

    Zhou, Feng; Xu, Youpeng; Chen, Ying; Xu, C.-Y.; Gao, Yuqin; Du, Jinkang


    SummaryThe Main objective of the study is to understand and quantify the hydrological responses of land use and land cover changes. The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most developed regions in China with the rapid development of urbanization which serves as an excellent case study site for understanding the hydrological response to urbanization and land use change. The Xitiaoxi River basin, one of the main upstream rivers to the Taihu Lake in the Yangtze River Delta, was selected to perform the study. The urban area in the basin increased from 37.8 km2 in 1985 to 105 km2 in 2008. SWAT model, which makes direct use of land cover and land use data in simulating streamflow, provides as a useful tool for performing such studies and is therefore used in this study. The results showed that (1) the expansion of urban areas had a slight influence on the simulated annual streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) as far as the whole catchment is concerned; (2) surface runoff and baseflow were found more sensitive to urbanization, which had increased by 11.3% and declined by 11.2%, respectively; (3) changes in streamflow, evapotranspiration and surface runoff were more pronounced during the wet season (from May to August), while baseflow and lateral flow had a slight seasonal variation; (4) the model simulated peak discharge increased 1.6-4.3% and flood volume increased 0.7-2.3% for the selected storm rainfall events at the entire basin level, and the change rate was larger for smaller flood events than for larger events; (5) spatially, changes of hydrological fluxes were more remarkable in the suburban basin which had a relative larger increase in urbanization than in rural sub-basins; and (6) analysis of future scenarios showed the impacts of urbanization on hydrological fluxes would be more obvious with growth in impervious areas from 15% to 30%. In conclusion, the urbanization would have a slight impact on annual water yield, but a remarkable impact was found on surface

  1. Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling (United States)

    Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan


    One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

  2. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.


    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed....

  3. Hydrological connectivity drives microbial responses to soil moisture (Invited) (United States)

    Schimel, J.


    Biogeochemical models generally fit microbial responses to moisture with smooth functions--as soils dry, processes slow. Microbial physiology, in contrast, has focused on how cells synthesize organic solutes to remain hydrated. Increasingly, however, we recognize that drying affects soil processes through resource constraints that develop when hydrological connection breaks down and organisms and resources become isolated in disconnected water pockets. Thus, microbial activity is regulated by abrupt breaks in connectivity and resources become unavailable to synthesize organic osmolytes; i.e. both biogeochemical models and pure-culture physiology perspectives are flawed. Hydrological connectivity fails before microbes become substantially stressed and before extracellular enzymes become inactive. Thus, resources can accumulate in dry soils, even as microbial activity shuts down because of resource limitation. The differential moisture responses of enzymes, organisms, and transport explains why microbial biomass and extractable C pools increase through the dry summer in California annual grasslands, why the size of the respiration pulse on rewetting increases with the length of drought, and even why soils from a wide range of biomes show the same relative response to soil moisture. I will discuss the evidence that supports the hydrological connectivity hypothesis for soil microbial moisture responses, how it affects a range of ecosystem processes, and how we can use it to develop simple, yet mechanistically rich, models of soil dynamics.

  4. An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios (United States)

    Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.


    Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for

  5. Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change (United States)

    Koster, Randal


    The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

  6. Plant adaptive behaviour in hydrological models (Invited) (United States)

    van der Ploeg, M. J.; Teuling, R.


    Models that will be able to cope with future precipitation and evaporation regimes need a solid base that describes the essence of the processes involved [1]. Micro-behaviour in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system may have a large impact on patterns emerging at larger scales. A complicating factor in the micro-behaviour is the constant interaction between vegetation and geology in which water plays a key role. The resilience of the coupled vegetation-soil system critically depends on its sensitivity to environmental changes. As a result of environmental changes vegetation may wither and die, but such environmental changes may also trigger gene adaptation. Constant exposure to environmental stresses, biotic or abiotic, influences plant physiology, gene adaptations, and flexibility in gene adaptation [2-6]. Gene expression as a result of different environmental conditions may profoundly impact drought responses across the same plant species. Differences in response to an environmental stress, has consequences for the way species are currently being treated in models (single plant to global scale). In particular, model parameters that control root water uptake and plant transpiration are generally assumed to be a property of the plant functional type. Assigning plant functional types does not allow for local plant adaptation to be reflected in the model parameters, nor does it allow for correlations that might exist between root parameters and soil type. Models potentially provide a means to link root water uptake and transport to large scale processes (e.g. Rosnay and Polcher 1998, Feddes et al. 2001, Jung 2010), especially when powered with an integrated hydrological, ecological and physiological base. We explore the experimental evidence from natural vegetation to formulate possible alternative modeling concepts. [1] Seibert, J. 2000. Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 4(2): 215

  7. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

  8. Assessing the hydrologic response to wildfires in mountainous regions (United States)

    Havel, Aaron; Tasdighi, Ali; Arabi, Mazdak


    This study aims to understand the hydrologic responses to wildfires in mountainous regions at various spatial scales. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to evaluate the hydrologic responses of the upper Cache la Poudre Watershed in Colorado to the 2012 High Park and Hewlett wildfire events. A baseline SWAT model was established to simulate the hydrology of the study area between the years 2000 and 2014. A procedure involving land use and curve number updating was implemented to assess the effects of wildfires. Application of the proposed procedure provides the ability to simulate the hydrologic response to wildfires seamlessly through mimicking the dynamic of the changes due to wildfires. The wildfire effects on curve numbers were determined comparing the probability distribution of curve numbers after calibrating the model for pre- and post-wildfire conditions. Daily calibration and testing of the model produced very good results. No-wildfire and wildfire scenarios were created and compared to quantify changes in average annual total runoff volume, water budgets, and full streamflow statistics at different spatial scales. At the watershed scale, wildfire conditions showed little impact on the hydrologic responses. However, a runoff increase up to 75 % was observed between the scenarios in sub-watersheds with high burn intensity. Generally, higher surface runoff and decreased subsurface flow were observed under post-wildfire conditions. Flow duration curves developed for burned sub-watersheds using full streamflow statistics showed that less frequent streamflows become greater in magnitude. A linear regression model was developed to assess the relationship between percent burned area and runoff increase in Cache la Poudre Watershed. A strong (R2 > 0.8) and significant (p < 0.001) positive correlation was determined between runoff increase and percentage of burned area upstream. This study showed that the effects of wildfires on hydrology of a

  9. Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melsen, Lieke Anna


    Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting

  10. Hydrologic modeling of the Columbia Plateau basalts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, F.H.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.; Zimmerman, D.A.


    The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) directed the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program to conduct a technology demonstration of current performance assessment techniques for the Department of Energy (DOE) as applied to a nuclear waste repository in the Columbia Plateau Basalts. Hypothetical repository coordinates were selected for an actual geographical setting on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Published hydrologic and geologic data used in the analyses were gathered in 1979 or earlier. The hydrologic simulation was divided into three major parts: (1) aquifer recharge calculations, (2) a regional hydrologic model, and (3) a local hydrologic model of the Pasco Basin. The presentation discusses the regional model. An estimate of the amount of water transmitted through the groundwater system was required to bound the transmissivity values and to estimate the transmissivity distributions for the deeper basalts. The multiple layer two-dimensional Variable Thickness Transient (VTT) code was selected as appropriate for the amount of data available and for the conditions existing in the regional systems. This model uses a finite difference formulation to represent the partial differential flow equation. The regional study area as defined for the VTT model was divided into 55 by 55 square pattern with each grid 5 kilometers on a side. The regional system was modeled as a held potential surface layer and two underlying basalt layers. The regional model established the boundary conditions for the hydrologic model the Pasco Basin

  11. Hydrological resiliency in the Western Boreal Plains: classification of hydrological responses using wavelet analysis to assess landscape resilience (United States)

    Probert, Samantha; Kettridge, Nicholas; Devito, Kevin; Hannah, David; Parkin, Geoff


    The Boreal represents a system of substantial resilience to climate change, with minimal ecological change over the past 6000 years. However, unprecedented climatic warming, coupled with catchment disturbances could exceed thresholds of hydrological function in the Western Boreal Plains. Knowledge of ecohydrological and climatic feedbacks that shape the resilience of boreal forests has advanced significantly in recent years, but this knowledge is yet to be applied and understood at landscape scales. Hydrological modelling at the landscape scale is challenging in the WBP due to diverse, non-topographically driven hydrology across the mosaic of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This study functionally divides the geologic and ecological components of the landscape into Hydrologic Response Areas (HRAs) and wetland, forestland, interface and pond Hydrologic Units (HUs) to accurately characterise water storage and infer transmission at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Wavelet analysis is applied to pond and groundwater levels to describe the patterns of water storage in response to climate signals; to isolate dominant controls on hydrological responses and to assess the relative importance of physical controls between wet and dry climates. This identifies which components of the landscape exhibit greater magnitude and frequency of variability to wetting and drying trends, further to testing the hierarchical framework for hydrological storage controls of: climate, bedrock geology, surficial geology, soil, vegetation, and topography. Classifying HRA and HU hydrological function is essential to understand and predict water storage and redistribution through drought cycles and wet periods. This work recognises which landscape components are most sensitive under climate change and disturbance and also creates scope for hydrological resiliency research in Boreal systems by recognising critical landscape components and their role in landscape collapse or catastrophic

  12. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.


    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  13. Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.


    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  14. Evaluating Hydrologic Response of an Agricultural Watershed for Watershed Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Kumar Jha


    Full Text Available This paper describes the hydrological assessment of an agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States through the use of a watershed scale hydrologic model. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to the Maquoketa River watershed, located in northeast Iowa, draining an agriculture intensive area of about 5,000 km2. The inputs to the model were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency’s geographic information/database system called Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS. Meteorological input, including precipitation and temperature from six weather stations located in and around the watershed, and measured streamflow data at the watershed outlet, were used in the simulation. A sensitivity analysis was performed using an influence coefficient method to evaluate surface runoff and baseflow variations in response to changes in model input hydrologic parameters. The curve number, evaporation compensation factor, and soil available water capacity were found to be the most sensitive parameters among eight selected parameters. Model calibration, facilitated by the sensitivity analysis, was performed for the period 1988 through 1993, and validation was performed for 1982 through 1987. The model was found to explain at least 86% and 69% of the variability in the measured streamflow data for calibration and validation periods, respectively. This initial hydrologic assessment will facilitate future modeling applications using SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed for various watershed analyses, including watershed assessment for water quality management, such as total maximum daily loads, impacts of land use and climate change, and impacts of alternate management practices.

  15. On the Use of Models in Hydrology. (United States)

    de Marsily, G.


    This discussion article addresses the nature of models used in hydrology. It proposes a minimalist classification of models into two categories: models built on data from observations of the processes involved, and those for which there are no observation data on any of these processes, at the scale of interest. (LZ)

  16. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s (United States)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland


    (see also, Hamilton, ElSawah, Guillaume, Jakeman, and Pierce 2015; Jakeman and Letcher 2003). Our contribution attempts to close a gap between previous concepts of integration of socio-economic aspects into hydrology (typically inspired by Integrated Water Resources Management) and the new socio-hydrology approach. We suppose that socio-hydrology could benefit from widening its scope and considering previous research at the boundaries between hydrology and social sciences. At the same time, concepts developed prior to socio-hydrology were seldom entirely successful. It might be beneficial to review these approaches developed earlier and those that are being developed in parallel from the perspective of socio-hydrology. References: Barthel, R., S. Janisch, N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, and W. Mauser. 2008. An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23: 1095-1121. Barthel, R., D. Nickel, A. Meleg, A. Trifkovic, and J. Braun. 2005. Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 30: 389-397. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2005.06.006 Hamilton, S. H., S. ElSawah, J. H. A. Guillaume, A. J. Jakeman, and S. A. Pierce. 2015. Integrated assessment and modelling: Overview and synthesis ofsalient dimensions. Environmental Modelling and Software, 64: 215-229. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.005 Jakeman, A. J., and R. A. Letcher. 2003. Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management. Environmental Modelling & Software, 18: 491-501. doi: Mauser, W., and M. Prasch. 2016. Regional Assessment of Global Change Impacts - The Project GLOWA-Danube: Springer International Publishing.

  17. Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (United States)

    Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.


    This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

  18. Modelling of green roof hydrological performance for urban drainage applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    Green roofs are being widely implemented for stormwater management and their impact on the urban hydrological cycle can be evaluated by incorporating them into urban drainage models. This paper presents a model of green roof long term and single event hydrological performance. The model includes...... surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention capacity of the green roof which is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. The runoff from the model is described through a non-linear reservoir approach. The model was calibrated and validated using measurement data...... from 3 different extensive sedum roofs in Denmark. These data consist of high-resolution measurements of runoff, precipitation and atmospheric variables in the period 2010–2012. The hydrological response of green roofs was quantified based on statistical analysis of the results of a 22-year (1989...

  19. Hydrological response to climate warming: The Upper Feather River Watershed (United States)

    Huang, Guobiao; Kadir, Tariq; Chung, Francis


    SummaryThe hydrological response and sensitivity to climate warming of a snow-dominated watershed, the Upper Feather River Basin (UFRB) in Northern California, were evaluated and quantified using observed changes, detrending, and specified temperature-based sensitivity simulations. The non-stationarity in historical data was detected with trend analysis and the warming trends in historical forcing data were removed by detrending. The physically-based and spatially-distributed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was used to force uniform climate warming (+1 °C to +4 °C) to investigate hydrologic sensitivity to temperature increase. Six Global Climate Models (GCMs) with two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A2 and B1, were selected to represent a range of climate change projections. These projected changes were then applied to the detrended historical forcing data to simulate climate change effects in a detrended, quasi-stationary setting. The results indicate that: (1) historical annual precipitation and streamflow have no trends, but air temperature and seasonal streamflow have statistically significant trends. (2) By detrending temperature, the strong trends in seasonal streamflow are virtually eliminated. (3) Hydrologic Sensitivity to climate warming includes small changes in annual streamflow and actual evapotranspiration, significant changes in streamflow timing and increased frequency and magnitude in extreme flows. (4) All GCM projections lead to negative impact on water supply.

  20. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction (United States)

    Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Savenije, H. H. G.


    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control methods for hydrologic prediction, namely, cross validation (CV), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and structural risk minimization (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically-based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order) increases. However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically-based models because of overfitting of noisy data. Incorporation of physically based constraints into the model (e.g., storage-discharge relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles. Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality and identifies the simplest model that adequately explains the data, thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification. SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (1) provides analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the computational burden of CV, and (2) extends the applicability of classic methods such as AIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension. Further research is needed in this area.

  1. Parameterization guidelines and considerations for hydrologic models (United States)

     R. W. Malone; G. Yagow; C. Baffaut; M.W  Gitau; Z. Qi; Devendra Amatya; P.B.   Parajuli; J.V. Bonta; T.R.  Green


     Imparting knowledge of the physical processes of a system to a model and determining a set of parameter values for a hydrologic or water quality model application (i.e., parameterization) are important and difficult tasks. An exponential...

  2. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...... the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...

  3. Multifractal Comparison of Reflectivity and Polarimetric Rainfall Data from C- and X-Band Radars and Respective Hydrological Responses of a Complex Catchment Model


    Igor Paz; Bernard Willinger; Auguste Gires; Abdellah Ichiba; Laurent Monier; Christophe Zobrist; Bruno Tisserand; Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia; Daniel Schertzer


    This paper presents a comparison between C-band and X-band radar data over an instrumented and regulated catchment of the Paris region. We study the benefits of polarimetry and the respective hydrological impacts with the help of rain gauge and flow measurements using a semi-distributed hydrological model. Both types of radar confirm the high spatial variability of the rainfall down to their space resolution (1 km and 250 m, respectively). Therefore, X-band radar data underscore the limitatio...

  4. Hydrologic model calibration using remotely-sensed data in Alaska (United States)

    Driscoll, J. M.; Hay, L.; Van Beusekom, A. E.


    Watershed models in Alaska are critical for understanding snow- and glacier-dominated hydrologic processes in a changing climate. The highly diverse, frozen, and remote landscapes in Alaska present a host of new challenges for broad-scale hydrologic model development, including a notable absence of field-measured streamflow data. Without this commonly-used data for model calibration, alternative methods need to be developed in order to model hydrologic processes Alaska. Calibration methods that use remotely-sensed data in multi-objective, step-wise procedures were developed in this study. A calibration method using snow covered area (SCA) measured by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed for a daily, deterministic, physically-based watershed model. The model selected for this study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and focused on a 62,500-sqkm test basin in southeastern Alaska from 2000 to 2014. Watershed model calibration to SCA ensures model processes adequately estimate transitional model states during snowmelt, a dominant hydrologic process in the basin. Gridded SCA data measuring fractional coverage were spatially aggregated to hydrologic response units within the basin. Model results were aggregated to eleven subbasins for calibration, comparison, and evaluation. Calibration of the subbasin watersheds to intermediate snowmelt process states, such as daily SCA, will likely also improve model estimates of solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual water balance, and components of daily runoff. In Alaska where snow and glacier-fed systems are abundant, observed data are often scarce; therefore the development of calibration methods with remotely-sensed data are critical for improvement of watershed models which can then be used to estimate response to climate change. This study provides a method using remotely-sensed snow cover data to overcome field-measured data

  5. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  6. Simulation of the cumulative hydrological response to green infrastructure (United States)

    Avellaneda, P. M.; Jefferson, A. J.; Grieser, J. M.; Bush, S. A.


    In this study, we evaluated the cumulative hydrologic performance of green infrastructure in a residential area of the city of Parma, Ohio, draining to a tributary of the Cuyahoga River. Green infrastructure included the following spatially distributed devices: 16 street-side bioretention cells, 7 rain gardens, and 37 rain barrels. Data consisted of rainfall and outfall flow records for a wide range of storm events, including pretreatment and treatment periods. The Stormwater Management Model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrologic response of green infrastructure. The calibrated model was used to quantify annual water budget alterations and discharge frequency over a 6 year simulation period. For the study catchment, we observed a treatment effect with increases of 1.4% in evaporation, 7.6% in infiltration, and a 9.0% reduction in surface runoff. The hydrologic performance of green infrastructure was evaluated by comparing the flow duration curve for pretreatment and treatment outfall flow scenarios. The flow duration curve shifted downward for the green infrastructure scenario. Discharges with a 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 year return period were reduced by an average of 29%. Parameter and predictive uncertainties were inspected by implementing a Bayesian statistical approach.

  7. Creating a conceptual hydrological soil response map for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Creating a conceptual hydrological soil response map for the Stevenson Hamilton Research Supersite, Kruger National Park, South Africa. ... Therefore the understanding of hydrological processes is a vital building block in managing natural ecosystems. Soils contain morphological indicators of the water flow paths and ...

  8. Isotopic and hydrologic responses of small, closed lakes to climate variability: Hydroclimate reconstructions from lake sediment oxygen isotope records and mass balance models (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.


    Hydroclimate sensitivity simulations were conducted with a lake-catchment hydrologic and isotope mass balance model adapted to two small, closed lakes (Castor and Scanlon) located in the Pacific Northwest. Model simulations were designed to investigate the combined influences of persistent disequilibrium, reddening, and equifinality on lake water and sediment (i.e., biogenic and endogenic carbonate mineral) oxygen isotope (δ18O) values and to provide a basis for quantitative, probabilistic climate reconstructions using lake sediment δ18O records. Simulation results indicate that within closed-basin lakes changes in long-term (i.e., multi-decadal) precipitation amounts produce inconsistent responses in lake water and sediment δ18O values that are strongly influenced by lake basin outseepage and morphometry. Simulations of variable initial conditions in which randomly generated monthly climate data (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity) were used to force the model during the equilibration period (which precedes the application of instrumental climate data) demonstrate that Castor Lake and Scanlon Lake have a somewhat limited isotopic 'memory' of ˜10 years. Additional tests conducted using a Monte Carlo ensemble (in which random climate data were used to force the model) combined with δ18O analyses of water samples collected from 2003 to 2011 AD, indicate that within small, closed lakes in the Pacific Northwest November-February precipitation is the strongest seasonal, climatic control on sediment oxygen-isotope values. Further, a Monte Carlo based reconstruction of 20 year average November-February precipitation amounts strongly correlates (R2 = 0.66) to instrumental values from the 20th century (with all observed values falling within modeled 95% prediction limits), indicating that probabilistic, quantitative paleoclimate interpretations of lake sediment δ18O records are attainable.

  9. Modelling of soil acidity and nitrogen availability in natural ecosystems in response to changes in acid deposition and hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kros, J.; Reinds, G.J.; Vries, de W.


    Changes in vegetation are often caused by changes in abiotic site factors. The SMART2 model has been developed to evaluate the effects of changes in ion inputs by atmospheric deposition and seepage on these site factors. Linkage with the Multiple Stress Model for Vegetation (MOVE) enables evaluation

  10. Coupled atmosphere-biophysics-hydrology models for environmental modeling (United States)

    Walko, R.L.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Lammers, R.; Lee, T.J.; Ojima, D.; Pielke, R.A.; Taylor, C.; Tague, C.; Tremback, C.J.; Vidale, P.L.


    The formulation and implementation of LEAF-2, the Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Feedback model, which comprises the representation of land–surface processes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is described. LEAF-2 is a prognostic model for the temperature and water content of soil, snow cover, vegetation, and canopy air, and includes turbulent and radiative exchanges between these components and with the atmosphere. Subdivision of a RAMS surface grid cell into multiple areas of distinct land-use types is allowed, with each subgrid area, or patch, containing its own LEAF-2 model, and each patch interacts with the overlying atmospheric column with a weight proportional to its fractional area in the grid cell. A description is also given of TOPMODEL, a land hydrology model that represents surface and subsurface downslope lateral transport of groundwater. Details of the incorporation of a modified form of TOPMODEL into LEAF-2 are presented. Sensitivity tests of the coupled system are presented that demonstrate the potential importance of the patch representation and of lateral water transport in idealized model simulations. Independent studies that have applied LEAF-2 and verified its performance against observational data are cited. Linkage of RAMS and TOPMODEL through LEAF-2 creates a modeling system that can be used to explore the coupled atmosphere–biophysical–hydrologic response to altered climate forcing at local watershed and regional basin scales.

  11. Eco-Hydrological Modelling of Stream Valleys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Ole

    Predicting the effects of hydrological alterations on terrestrial stream valley ecosystems requires multidisciplinary approaches involving both engineers and ecologists. Groundwater discharge in stream valleys and other lowland areas support a number of species rich ecosystems, and their protection...... is prioritised worldwide. Protection requires improved knowledge on the functioning of these ecosystems and especially the linkages between vegetation, groundwater discharge and water level conditions are crucial for management applications. Groundwater abstraction affects catchment hydrology and thereby also...... groundwater discharge. Numerical hydrological modelling has been widely used for evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources and effects of abstraction, however, the importance of local scale heterogeneity becomes increasingly important in the assessment of local damage to these groundwater dependent...

  12. Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghada Machtoub


    Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

  13. Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

  14. On science versus engineering in hydrological modelling (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke


    It is always stressed that hydrological modelling is very important, to prevent floods, to mitigate droughts, to ensure food production or nature conservation. All very true, but I believe that focussing so much on the application of our knowledge (which I call `the engineering approach'), does not stimulate thorough system understanding (which I call `the scientific approach'). In many studies, science and engineering approaches are mixed, which results in large uncertainty e.g. due to a lack of system understanding. To what extent engineering and science approached are mixed depends on the Philosophy of Science of the researcher; verificationism seems to be closer related to engineering, than falsificationism or Bayesianism. In order to grow our scientific knowledge, which means increasing our understanding of the system, we need to be more critical towards the models that we use, but also recognize all the processes that influence the hydrological cycle. In an era called 'The Anthropocene' the influence of humans on the water system can no longer be neglected, and if we choose a scientific approach we have to account for human-induced processes. Summarizing, I believe that we have to account for human impact on the hydrological system, but we have to resist the temptation to directly quantify the hydrological impact on the human system.

  15. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gorgan


    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  16. Avian community responses to variability in river hydrology. (United States)

    Royan, Alexander; Hannah, David M; Reynolds, S James; Noble, David G; Sadler, Jonathan P


    River flow is a major driver of morphological structure and community dynamics in riverine-floodplain ecosystems. Flow influences in-stream communities through changes in water velocity, depth, temperature, turbidity and nutrient fluxes, and perturbations in the organisation of lower trophic levels are cascaded through the food web, resulting in shifts in food availability for consumer species. River birds are sensitive to spatial and phenological mismatches with aquatic prey following flow disturbances; however, the role of flow as a determinant of riparian ecological structure remains poorly known. This knowledge is crucial to help to predict if, and how, riparian communities will be influenced by climate-induced changes in river flow characterised by more extreme high (i.e. flood) and/or low (i.e. drought) flow events. Here, we combine national-scale datasets of river bird surveys and river flow archives to understand how hydrological disturbance has affected the distribution of riparian species at higher trophic levels. Data were analysed for 71 river locations using a Generalized Additive Model framework and a model averaging procedure. Species had complex but biologically interpretable associations with hydrological indices, with species' responses consistent with their ecology, indicating that hydrological-disturbance has implications for higher trophic levels in riparian food webs. Our quantitative analysis of river flow-bird relationships demonstrates the potential vulnerability of riparian species to the impacts of changing flow variability and represents an important contribution in helping to understand how bird communities might respond to a climate change-induced increase in the intensity of floods and droughts. Moreover, the success in relating parameters of river flow variability to species' distributions highlights the need to include river flow data in climate change impact models of species' distributions.

  17. Avian community responses to variability in river hydrology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Royan

    Full Text Available River flow is a major driver of morphological structure and community dynamics in riverine-floodplain ecosystems. Flow influences in-stream communities through changes in water velocity, depth, temperature, turbidity and nutrient fluxes, and perturbations in the organisation of lower trophic levels are cascaded through the food web, resulting in shifts in food availability for consumer species. River birds are sensitive to spatial and phenological mismatches with aquatic prey following flow disturbances; however, the role of flow as a determinant of riparian ecological structure remains poorly known. This knowledge is crucial to help to predict if, and how, riparian communities will be influenced by climate-induced changes in river flow characterised by more extreme high (i.e. flood and/or low (i.e. drought flow events. Here, we combine national-scale datasets of river bird surveys and river flow archives to understand how hydrological disturbance has affected the distribution of riparian species at higher trophic levels. Data were analysed for 71 river locations using a Generalized Additive Model framework and a model averaging procedure. Species had complex but biologically interpretable associations with hydrological indices, with species' responses consistent with their ecology, indicating that hydrological-disturbance has implications for higher trophic levels in riparian food webs. Our quantitative analysis of river flow-bird relationships demonstrates the potential vulnerability of riparian species to the impacts of changing flow variability and represents an important contribution in helping to understand how bird communities might respond to a climate change-induced increase in the intensity of floods and droughts. Moreover, the success in relating parameters of river flow variability to species' distributions highlights the need to include river flow data in climate change impact models of species' distributions.

  18. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann


    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  19. Hydrologic behavior of model slopes with synthetic water repellent soils (United States)

    Zheng, Shuang; Lourenço, Sérgio D. N.; Cleall, Peter J.; Chui, Ting Fong May; Ng, Angel K. Y.; Millis, Stuart W.


    In the natural environment, soil water repellency decreases infiltration, increases runoff, and increases erosion in slopes. In the built environment, soil water repellency offers the opportunity to develop granular materials with controllable wettability for slope stabilization. In this paper, the influence of soil water repellency on the hydrological response of slopes is investigated. Twenty-four flume tests were carried out in model slopes under artificial rainfall; soils with various wettability levels were tested, including wettable (Contact Angle, CA 90°). Various rainfall intensities (30 mm/h and 70 mm/h), slope angles (20° and 40°) and relative compactions (70% and 90%) were applied to model the response of natural and man-made slopes to rainfall. To quantitatively assess the hydrological response, a number of measurements were made: runoff rate, effective rainfall rate, time to ponding, time to steady state, runoff acceleration, total water storage and wetting front rate. Overall, an increase in soil water repellency reduces infiltration and shortens the time for runoff generation, with the effects amplified for high rainfall intensity. Comparatively, the slope angle and relative compaction had only a minor contribution to the slope hydrology. The subcritical water repellent soils sustained infiltration for longer than both the wettable and water repellent soils, which presents an added advantage if they are to be used in the built environment as barriers. This study revealed substantial impacts of man-made or synthetically induced soil water repellency on the hydrological behavior of model slopes in controlled conditions. The results shed light on our understanding of hydrological processes in environments where the occurrence of natural soil water repellency is likely, such as slopes subjected to wildfires and in agricultural and forested slopes.

  20. Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review. (United States)

    Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W


    Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

  1. HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Schymanski


    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  2. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.


    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to

  3. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling (United States)

    Dorner, W.; Spachinger, K.; Porter, M.; Metzka, R.


    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  4. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M


    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  5. Documentation for the hydrological discharge model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, S.; Duemenil, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)


    To improve the representation of hydrological land surface processes, which has so far been treated inadequately in global models of the atmospheric general circulation (GCMs), a model for the lateral waterflows from the continents into the ocean on the global scale was developed. The model describes the translation and retention of the lateral discharge as a function of the spatially distributed land surface characteristics that are globally available. Here, global scale refers to the resolution of 0.5 and lower, corresponding to a typical GCM gridbox area of about 2500 km{sup 2}. This model is called the Hydrological Discharge model or HD model. The HD model computes the discharge only at 0.5 resolution. A model input fields (runoff and drainage, see Sect. 3.1.) from the various GCM resolutions are interpolated to the same 0.5 grid. Thus, input fields may be used from any available resolution, if the corresponding interpolation routine to the 0.5 degree grid is provided. Since the HD model uses a time step of one day, a temporal resolution of one day is sufficient for the input fields. (orig.)

  6. Evapotranspiration and irrigation algorithms in hydrologic modeling:Present Status and Opportunities (United States)

    Hydrologic models are used extensively for predicting water availability and water quality responses to alternative irrigation, tillage, crop, and fertilizer management practices and global climate change. Modeling results have been frequently used by regulatory agencies for developing remedial meas...

  7. Hydrologic modeling in a marsh-mangrove ecotone: Predicting wetland surface water and salinity response to restoration in the Ten Thousand Islands region of Florida, USA (United States)

    Michot, B.D.; Meselhe, E.A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Shrestha, Surendra; From, Andrew S.; Patino, Eduardo


    At the fringe of Everglades National Park in southwest Florida, United States, the Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge (TTINWR) habitat has been heavily affected by the disruption of natural freshwater flow across the Tamiami Trail (U.S. Highway 41). As the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) proposes to restore the natural sheet flow from the Picayune Strand Restoration Project area north of the highway, the impact of planned measures on the hydrology in the refuge needs to be taken into account. The objective of this study was to develop a simple, computationally efficient mass balance model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of water level and salinity within the area of interest. This model could be used to assess the effects of the proposed management decisions on the surface water hydrological characteristics of the refuge. Surface water variations are critical to the maintenance of wetland processes. The model domain is divided into 10 compartments on the basis of their shared topography, vegetation, and hydrologic characteristics. A diversion of +10% of the discharge recorded during the modeling period was simulated in the primary canal draining the Picayune Strand forest north of the Tamiami Trail (Faka Union Canal) and this discharge was distributed as overland flow through the refuge area. Water depths were affected only modestly. However, in the northern part of the refuge, the hydroperiod, i.e., the duration of seasonal flooding, was increased by 21 days (from 115 to 136 days) for the simulation during the 2008 wet season, with an average water level rise of 0.06 m. The average salinity over a two-year period in the model area just south of Tamiami Trail was reduced by approximately 8 practical salinity units (psu) (from 18 to 10 psu), whereas the peak dry season average was reduced from 35 to 29 psu (by 17%). These salinity reductions were even larger with greater flow diversions (+20%). Naturally, the reduction

  8. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy


    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  9. Data Assimilation in Integrated and Distributed Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Donghua

    Integrated hydrological models are frequently used in water-related environmental resource management. With our better understanding of the hydrological processes and the improved computational power, hydrological models are becoming increasingly more complex as they integrate multiple hydrological...... to efficient use of traditional and new observational data in integrated hydrological models, as this technique can improve model prediction and reduce model uncertainty. The thesis investigates several challenges within the scope of data assimilation in integrated hydrological models. From the methodological...... point of view, different assimilation methodologies and techniques have been developed or customized to better serve hydrological assimilation. From the application point of view, real data and real-world complex catchments are used with the focus of investigating the models’ improvements with data...

  10. Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Link, Robert P.; Feng, Leyang; Liu, Yaling; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.


    Xanthos is a Python model designed to quantify and analyze global water availability historically and in the future at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and a monthly time step. Its performance and functionality was tested through real-world applications. It is open-source, extensible and accessible for researchers who work on long-term climate data for studies of global water supply, and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). This package integrates inherent global gridded data maps, I/O modules, hydrologic processes and diagnostics modules parameterized by a user-defined configuration file.

  11. An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands (United States)

    R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell


    The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

  12. A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework (United States)

    Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.


    Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

  13. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - Towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, Michael; Rasmussen, Søren H.; Ridler, Marc


    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  14. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.


    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  15. Coupling Cellular Automata Land Use Change with Distributed Hydrologic Models (United States)

    Shu, L.; Duffy, C.


    There has been extensive research on LUC modeling with broad applications to simulating urban growth and changing demographic patterns across multiple scales. The importance of land conversion is a critical issue in watershed scale studies and is generally not treated in most watershed modeling approaches. In this study we apply spatially explicit hydrologic and landuse change models and the Conestoga Watershed in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) partitions the water balance in space and time over the urban catchment, the coupled Cellular Automata Land Use Change model (CALUC) dynamically simulates the evolution of land use classes based on physical measures associated with population change and land use demand factors. The CALUC model is based on iteratively applying discrete rules to each individual spatial cell. The essence the CA modeling involves calculation of the Transition Potential (TP) for conversion of a grid cell from one land use class to another. This potential includes five factors: random perturbation, suitability, accessibility, neighborhood effect, inertia effects and zonal factors. In spite of simplicity, this CALUC model has been shown to be very effective for simulating LUC leading to the emergence of complex spatial patterns. The components of TP are derived from present land use data for landuse reanalysis and for realistic future land use scenarios. For the CALUC we use early-settlement (circa 1790) initial land class values and final or present-day (2010) land classes to calibrate the model. CALUC- PIHM dynamically simulates the hydrologic response of conversion from pre-settlement to present landuse. The simulations highlight the capability and value of dynamic coupling of catchment hydrology with land use change over long time periods. Analysis of the simulation uses various metrics such as the distributed water balance, flow duration curves, etc. to show how deforestation, urbanization and

  16. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ichiba


    Full Text Available Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

  17. Towards general models of the three-dimensional occurrence of soil water-repellency, its hydrological significance, temporal dynamics and response to climatic change (United States)

    Walsh, Rory; Urbanek, Emilia; Ferreira, Carla; Ferreira, Antonio; Shakesby, Rick


    Although it is well-established that soil water-repellency exists - at least transiently - in some vegetation/land-use types within a wide range of climatic zones, it varies greatly both in its four-dimensional character and the nature and significance of its hydrological effects. Thus within landscapes, soil water-repellency varies not only in severity, but also in percentage cover, spatial pattern and connectivity; in vertical position and vertical extent; in its temporal regime; and in the presence/absence and frequency of bypass routes through any hydrophobic layer. The nature and degree of significance of any hydrological impacts of hydrophobicity are very dependent on these variations. Assessments of the likely impacts of current and future climatic change on hydrophobic (or potentially hydrophobic) environments need to take these variations in the four-dimensional nature of hydrophobicity and their controlling factors and mechanisms into account. This poster paper presents and discusses a series of conceptual models that together attempt to understand the factors and mechanisms controlling soil water-repellency and its hydrological consequences. The paper draws on a combination of: (1) results of field measurements and experiments in burned and unburned scrub, pine and eucalyptus terrain in central Portugal; (2) laboratory experiments of the influence of the presence/absence of basal impedance and cracks, root-holes and stones on the temporal dynamics of three-dimensional patterns of repellency in wetting and drying cycles; and (3) findings from a wider range of environments and locations from the published literature. Three conceptual models are considered. The first addresses the environmental factors that control and influence the occurrence and three-dimensional structure of soil water-repellency within landscapes. Within this model, the emphasis is placed on vegetation, land-use and land management (including their influence - together with climate - on

  18. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP) (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob


    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models ( Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  19. Analysis of streamflow response to land use and land cover changes using satellite data and hydrological modelling: case study of Dinder and Rahad tributaries of the Blue Nile (Ethiopia-Sudan) (United States)

    Hassaballah, Khalid; Mohamed, Yasir; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Biro, Khalid


    Understanding the land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) and their implication on surface hydrology of the Dinder and Rahad basins (D&R, approximately 77 504 km2) is vital for the management and utilization of water resources in the basins. Although there are many studies on LULCC in the Blue Nile Basin, specific studies on LULCC in the D&R are still missing. Hence, its impact on streamflow is unknown. The objective of this paper is to understand the LULCC in the Dinder and Rahad and its implications on streamflow response using satellite data and hydrological modelling. The hydrological model has been derived by different sets of land use and land cover maps from 1972, 1986, 1998 and 2011. Catchment topography, land cover and soil maps are derived from satellite images and serve to estimate model parameters. Results of LULCC detection between 1972 and 2011 indicate a significant decrease in woodland and an increase in cropland. Woodland decreased from 42 to 14 % and from 35 to 14 % for Dinder and Rahad, respectively. Cropland increased from 14 to 47 % and from 18 to 68 % in Dinder and Rahad, respectively. The model results indicate that streamflow is affected by LULCC in both the Dinder and the Rahad rivers. The effect of LULCC on streamflow is significant during 1986 and 2011. This could be attributed to the severe drought during the mid-1980s and the recent large expansion in cropland.

  20. Impact of geological model uncertainty on integrated catchment hydrological modeling (United States)

    He, Xin; Jørgensen, Flemming; Refsgaard, Jens Christian


    Various types of uncertainty can influence hydrological model performance. Among them, uncertainty originated from geological model may play an important role in process-based integrated hydrological modeling, if the model is used outside the calibration base. In the present study, we try to assess the hydrological model predictive uncertainty caused by uncertainty of the geology using an ensemble of geological models with equal plausibility. The study is carried out in the 101 km2 Norsminde catchment in western Denmark. Geostatistical software TProGS is used to generate 20 stochastic geological realizations for the west side the of study area. This process is done while incorporating the borehole log data from 108 wells and high resolution airborne transient electromagnetic (AEM) data for conditioning. As a result, 10 geological models are generated based solely on borehole data, and another 10 geological models are based on both borehole and AEM data. Distributed surface water - groundwater models are developed using MIKE SHE code for each of the 20 geological models. The models are then calibrated using field data collected from stream discharge and groundwater head observations. The model simulation results are evaluated based on the same two types of field data. The results show that the differences between simulated discharge flows caused by using different geological models are relatively small. The model calibration is shown to be able to account for the systematic bias in different geological realizations and hence varies the calibrated model parameters. This results in an increase in the variance between the hydrological realizations compared to the uncalibrated models that uses the same parameter values in all 20 models. Furthermore, borehole based hydrological models in general show more variance between simulations than the AEM based models; however, the combined total uncertainty, bias plus variance, is not necessarily higher.

  1. Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinya Li


    Full Text Available Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM. Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resources in the form of total runoff. Funding statement: PNNL is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.

  2. Performance comparison of hydrological model structures during low flows (United States)

    Staudinger, Maria; Stahl, Kerstin; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Clark, Martyn P.; Seibert, Jan


    Low flows are still poorly reproduced by common hydrological models since they are traditionally designed to meet peak flow situations best possible. As low flow becomes increasingly important to several target areas there is a need to improve available models. We present a study that assesses the impact of model structure on low flow simulations. This is done using the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which identifies the set of (subjective) decisions made when building a hydrological model, and provides multiple options for each modeling decision. 79 models were built using the FUSE framework, and applied to simulate stream flows in the Narsjø catchment in Norway (119 km²). To allow comparison all new models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method. Low flow and recession analysis of the new models enables us to evaluate model performance focusing on different aspects by using various objective functions. Additionally, model structures responsible for poor performance, and hence unsuitable, can be detected. We focused on elucidating model performance during summer (August - October) and winter low flows which evolve from entirely different hydrological processes in the Narsjø catchment. Summer low flows develop out of a lack of precipitation while winter low flows are due to water storage in ice and snow. The results showed that simulations of summer low flows were throughout poorer than simulations of winter low flows when evaluating with an objective function focusing on low flows; here, the model structure influencing winter low flow simulations is the lower layer architecture. Different model structures were found to influence model performance during the summer season. The choice of other objective functions has the potential to affect such an evaluation. These findings call for the use of different model structures tailored to particular needs.

  3. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze


    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  4. Modeling the eco-hydrologic response of a Mediterranean type ecosystem to the combined impacts of projected climate change and altered fire frequencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tague, Christina; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Hope, Allen


    Global Climate Models (GCMs) project moderate warming along with increases in atmospheric CO2 for California Mediterranean type ecosystems (MTEs). In water-limited ecosystems, vegetation acts as an important control on streamflow and responds to soil moisture availability. Fires are also key...... disturbances in semiarid environments, and few studies have explored the potential interactions among changes in climate, vegetation dynamics, hydrology, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and fire. We model ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and summer streamflow under a range of temperature...... climate scenarios, biomass in chaparral-dominated systems is likely to increase, leading to reductions in summer streamflow. However, within the range of GCM predictions, there are some scenarios in which vegetation may decrease, leading to higher summer streamflows. Changes due to increases in fire...

  5. The hydrological response of baseflow in fractured mountain areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Losada


    Full Text Available The study of baseflow in mountainous areas of basin headwaters, where the characteristics of the often fractured materials are very different to the standard issues concerning porous material applied in conventional hydrogeology, is an essential element in the characterization and quantification of water system resources. Their analysis through recession fragments provides information on the type of response of the sub-surface and subterranean systems and on the average relation between the storage and discharge of aquifers, starting from the joining of these fragments into a single curve, the Master Recession Curve (MRC. This paper presents the generation of the downward MRC over fragments selected after a preliminary analysis of the recession curves, using a hydrological model as the methodology for the identification and the characterization of quick sub-surface flows flowing through fractured materials. The hydrological calculation has identified recession fragments through surface runoff or snowmelt and those periods of intense evapotranspiration. The proposed methodology has been applied to three sub-basins belonging to a high altitude mountain basin in the Mediterranean area, with snow present every year, and their results were compared with those for the upward concatenation of the recession fragments. The results show the existence of two different responses, one quick (at the sub-surface, through the fractured material and the other slow, with linear behaviour which takes place in periods of 10 and 17 days respectively and which is linked to the dimensions of the sub-basin. In addition, recesses belonging to the dry season have been selected in order to compare and validate the results corresponding to the study of recession fragments. The comparison, using these two methodologies, which differ in the time period selected, has allowed us to validate the results obtained for the slow flow.

  6. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard


    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  7. Advancing the Implementation of Hydrologic Models as Web-based Applications (United States)

    Dahal, P.; Tarboton, D. G.; Castronova, A. M.


    Advanced computer simulations are required to understand hydrologic phenomenon such as rainfall-runoff response, groundwater hydrology, snow hydrology, etc. Building a hydrologic model instance to simulate a watershed requires investment in data (diverse geospatial datasets such as terrain, soil) and computer resources, typically demands a wide skill set from the analyst, and the workflow involved is often difficult to reproduce. This work introduces a web-based prototype infrastructure in the form of a web application that provides researchers with easy to use access to complete hydrological modeling functionality. This includes creating the necessary geospatial and forcing data, preparing input files for a model by applying complex data preprocessing, running the model for a user defined watershed, and saving the results to a web repository. The open source Tethys Platform was used to develop the web app front-end Graphical User Interface (GUI). We used HydroDS, a webservice that provides data preparation processing capability to support backend computations used by the app. Results are saved in HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. The TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model served as the example for which we developed a complete hydrologic modeling service to demonstrate the approach. The final product is a complete modeling system accessible through the web to create input files, and run the TOPKAPI hydrologic model for a watershed of interest. We are investigating similar functionality for the preparation of input to Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Key Words: hydrologic modeling, web services, hydrologic information system, HydroShare, HydroDS, Tethys Platform

  8. From meteorological to hydrological drought in the Upper Niger Basin: trend and uncertainty analysis in the monitoring and the modeling of rainfall deficits and low flow responses (United States)

    Fournet, S.; Aich, V.; Liersch, S.; Hattermann, F. F.


    From 1970 to 2002, the Sahel experienced a fairly abrupt, severe and continuous dry episode. The main reason is the oceanic forcing ruling the West African monsoon dynamic. Also, a combinative effect of climate and anthropogenic changes (demographic pressure on land associated to inappropriate land-use practices) initiates and supports the interactive processes of drying and land cover degradation forming a complex land atmosphere feedback convection. The Great Drought in Mali largely affected the regional food security, the human societies and economic development and the conservation of wet and semi-arid ecosystems. It results in an increasing competition and conflicts for water access between vulnerable local stakeholders (rainfed and controlled irrigation farming, nomad pastoralism, traditional fishing) and steers national investments with the construction of dams and diversion channels for development of hydropower energy and fully governed irrigated agriculture. To support drought adaptations in regional development strategies, climate and hydrological forecasting are thus of paramount importance. Whilst climate change is typically associated with an increase in mean global surface temperature, what matters regionally and still remains uncertain is the change in rainfall, discharge and drought patterns from daily intensity to large inter-annual and multi-decadal variability. Different climate data sources exist for investigation of climate variability and change: daily measurements, reanalysis data and climate scenarios using Global and Regional Circulation Models (GCMs and RCMs). This study aims at analyzing the suitability of the different data sources for drought investigation in the target area, the Upper Niger Basin. First, the performance of meteorological data sets based on climate reanalysis is assessed in comparison of data of synoptic stations. Second, one statistical (STAR) and two dynamical regional RCMs (CCLM, REMO) are compared to IPCC-GCM data

  9. Integrating Near-Real Time Hydrologic-Response Monitoring and Modeling for Improved Assessments of Slope Stability Along the Coastal Bluffs of the Puget Sound Rail Corridor, Washington State (United States)

    Mirus, B. B.; Baum, R. L.; Stark, B.; Smith, J. B.; Michel, A.


    Previous USGS research on landslide potential in hillside areas and coastal bluffs around Puget Sound, WA, has identified rainfall thresholds and antecedent moisture conditions that correlate with heightened probability of shallow landslides. However, physically based assessments of temporal and spatial variability in landslide potential require improved quantitative characterization of the hydrologic controls on landslide initiation in heterogeneous geologic materials. Here we present preliminary steps towards integrating monitoring of hydrologic response with physically based numerical modeling to inform the development of a landslide warning system for a railway corridor along the eastern shore of Puget Sound. We instrumented two sites along the steep coastal bluffs - one active landslide and one currently stable slope with the potential for failure - to monitor rainfall, soil-moisture, and pore-pressure dynamics in near-real time. We applied a distributed model of variably saturated subsurface flow for each site, with heterogeneous hydraulic-property distributions based on our detailed site characterization of the surficial colluvium and the underlying glacial-lacustrine deposits that form the bluffs. We calibrated the model with observed volumetric water content and matric potential time series, then used simulated pore pressures from the calibrated model to calculate the suction stress and the corresponding distribution of the factor of safety against landsliding with the infinite slope approximation. Although the utility of the model is limited by uncertainty in the deeper groundwater flow system, the continuous simulation of near-surface hydrologic response can help to quantify the temporal variations in the potential for shallow slope failures at the two sites. Thus the integration of near-real time monitoring and physically based modeling contributes a useful tool towards mitigating hazards along the Puget Sound railway corridor.

  10. Impact of wetlands mapping on parameterization of hydrologic simulation models (United States)

    Viger, R.


    Wetlands and other surface depressions can impact hydrologic response within the landscape in a number of ways, such as intercepting runoff and near-surface flows or changing the potential for evaporation and seepage into the soil. The role of these features is increasingly being integrated into hydrological simulation models, such as the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and applied to landscapes where wetlands are dominating features. Because the extent of these features varies widely through time, many modeling applications rely on delineations of the maximum possible extent to define total capacity of a model's spatial response unit. This poster presents an evaluation of several wetland map delineations for the Pipestem River basin in the North Dakota Prairie-pothole region. The featured data sets include the US Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), surface water bodies extracted from the US Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), and elevation depressions extracted from 1 meter LiDAR data for the area. In addition to characterizing differences in the quality of these datasets, the poster will assess the impact of these differences when parameters are derived from them for the spatial response units of the PRMS model.

  11. Influence of the spatial discretization degree on the hydrological response of a flatland watershed through distributed mathematical modeling; Influencia del grado de discretizacion espacial en la respuesta hidrologica de una cuenca de llanura mediante modelacion matematica distribuida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenta, Herman Roberto; Riccardi, Gerardo A; Basile, Pedro A [Universidad Nacional de Rosario (Mexico)


    Distributed hydrological models are suitable for the determination of time and space variability of hydrological responses within a given watershed. In a watershed, the model can be implemented with different levels of space resolution, mainly as a function of data availability, objectives of the numerical study, and requirements of the system to be modeled. In this paper, the effects on landscape representation due to different cell sizes are analyzed and scaling of parameters in a lower spatial resolution level is proposed in order to obtain similarity in hydrological responses between different degrees of discretization. The comparison was made in terms of maximum discharge, maximum flow velocity, and maximum water depth by simulating a number of observed and hypothetical hydrological events. The concept of total equilibrium state of the watershed was used. Under these circumstances, the roughness coefficients associated to overland and stream flow and the storage function of each discretization element were adjusted separately for the lower spatial resolution level. The results show that the similarity in hydrological responses, in terms of maximum water depth, obtained by adjusting the storage function of the cells, is better than that corresponding to the adjustment of roughness coefficients. [Spanish] Los modelos matematicos de parametros distribuidos resultan particularmente apropiados para determinar la variabilidad espacial y temporal de las respuestas hidrologicas dentro de un determinado sistema hidrico. En una cuenca es posible realizar la constitucion de un modelo con diferentes niveles de detalle en funcion principalmente de la disponibilidad de informacion de entrada necesaria, de los objetivos de estudio y de los requerimientos de modelado del sistema. En el presente trabajo se analizan los efectos producidos en la representacion del relieve debido a los diferentes tamanos de celda en que se ha discretizado una cuenca de llanura y se propone el

  12. Effects of land cover changes induced by large physical disturbances on hydrological responses in Central Taiwan. (United States)

    Hong, Nien Ming; Chu, Hone-Jay; Lin, Yu-Pin; Deng, Dung-Po


    This study analyzes the significant impacts of typhoons and earthquakes on land cover change and hydrological response. The occurrence of landslides following typhoons and earthquakes is a major indicator of natural disturbance. The hydrological response of the Chenyulan watershed to land use change was assessed from 1996 to 2005. Land use changes revealed by seven remote images corresponded to typhoons and a catastrophic earthquake in central Taiwan. Hydrological response is discussed as the change in quantities and statistical distributions of hydrological components. The land cover change results indicate that the proportion of landslide relative to total area increased to 6.1% after the Chi-Chi earthquake, representing the largest increase during the study period. The study watershed is dominated by forest land cover. Comparisons of hydrological components reveal that the disturbance significantly affects base flow and direct runoff. The hydrological modeling results demonstrate that the change in forest area correlates with the variation of base flow and direct runoff. Base flow and direct runoff are sensitive to land use in discussions of distinction. The proposed approach quantifies the effect of typhoons and earthquakes on land cover changes.

  13. Developing a mechanistically consistent picture of permafrost influence on hydrologic response (Invited) (United States)

    Lyon, S. W.


    In regions experiencing permafrost thaw, catchment structure is a dynamic factor mediating hydrologic response. Predicting how this mediation will manifest is difficult since there are myriad potential hydrologic consequences from thawing permafrost such as changes to the connectivity of the aquifer system and the amount of water available for groundwater storage. For example, despite similar climate evolution and permafrost degradation over the past century, contrasting trends can be seen in the magnitude and timing of flood peaks and the mean summer discharge regionally across northern Sweden. Complementing hydrological change information with observations and detailed modeling provides a more mechanistically consistent picture of the hydrologic response impacts due to thawing permafrost. This is particularly relevant with regards to the timing of water flows that control the cycling of Carbon and other biogeochemicals within subarctic environments. As such, there is a clear added value in considering coupled process-functional changes in complement to the absolute hydrologic changes that integrate and, thus, may mask subsystem shifts in hydrologic responses (amount and timing).

  14. Multifractal Comparison of Reflectivity and Polarimetric Rainfall Data from C- and X-Band Radars and Respective Hydrological Responses of a Complex Catchment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Paz


    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparison between C-band and X-band radar data over an instrumented and regulated catchment of the Paris region. We study the benefits of polarimetry and the respective hydrological impacts with the help of rain gauge and flow measurements using a semi-distributed hydrological model. Both types of radar confirm the high spatial variability of the rainfall down to their space resolution (1 km and 250 m, respectively. Therefore, X-band radar data underscore the limitations of simulations using a semi-distributed model with sub-catchments of an average size of 2 km. The use of the polarimetric capacity of the Météo-France C-band radar was limited to corrections of the horizontal reflectivity, and its rainfall estimates are adjusted with the help of a rain gauge network. On the contrary, no absolute calibration and scanning optimisation were performed for the polarimetric X-band radar of the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (hereafter referred to as the ENPC X-band radar. In spite of this and the fact that the catchment is much closer to the C-band radar than to the X-band radar (average distance of 15 km vs. 35 km, respectively, the latter seems to perform at least as well as the former, but with a higher spatial resolution. This was best highlighted with the help of a multifractal analysis, which also shows that the X-band radar was able to pick up a few rainfall extremes that were smoothed out by the C-band radar.

  15. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.


    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

  16. The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.


    The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

  17. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent


    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  18. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of LID in The Woodlands, Texas (United States)

    Bedient, P.; Doubleday, G.; Sebastian, A.; Fang, N.


    As early as the 1960s, the Woodlands, TX employed stormwater management similar to modern Low Impact Development (LID) design. Innovative for its time, the master drainage plan attempted to minimize adverse impact to the 100-year floodplain and reduce the impact of development on the natural environment. Today, it is Texas's most celebrated master-planned community. This paper employs the use of NEXRAD radar rainfall in the distributed hydrologic model, VfloTM, to evaluate the effectiveness of The Woodlands master drainage design as a stormwater management technique. Three models were created in order to analyze the rainfall-runoff response of The Woodlands watershed under different development conditions: two calibrated, fully distributed hydrologic models to represent the (A) undeveloped and (B) 2006-development conditions and (C) a hypothetical, highly urbanized model, representing Houston-style development. Parameters, such as imperviousness and land cover, were varied in order to represent the different developed conditions. The A and B models were calibrated using NEXRAD radar rainfall for two recent storm events in 2008 and 2009. All three models were used to compare peak flows, discharge volumes and time to peak of hydrographs for the recent radar rainfall events and a historical gaged rainfall event that occurred in 1974. Results show that compared to pre-developed conditions, the construction of The Woodlands resulted in an average increase in peak flows of only 15% during small storms and 27% during a major event. Furthermore, when compared to the highly urbanized model, peak flows are often two to three times smaller for the 2006-model. In the 2006-model, the peak flow of the 100 year event was successfully attenuated, suggesting that the design of The Woodlands effectively protects the development from the 1% occurrence storm event using LID practices and reservoirs. This study uses a calibrated hydrologic distributed-model supported by NEXRAD radar

  19. Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo


    Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir

  20. Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models (United States)

    Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.


    A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking

  1. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  2. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab


    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  3. Hydrologic Response to Climatic and Vegetation Change in an Extreme Alpine Environment (United States)

    Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Molotch, N. P.; Bueno de Mesquita, C.; Suding, K.


    Mountain hydrology and ecology are uniquely sensitive to climate change. This presentation will examine how changes in climate have altered land cover and hydrology in the Green Lakes Valley, an alpine catchment for which approximately 80% of the annual precipitation ( 950 mm/yr) falls as snow. In these environments vegetation has two way interaction with hydrology: its distribution is driven by patterns of snowpack and water availability while it functions to modulate hydrologic responses by alterating land-atmosphere interaction. Long-term climate trends indicate warming, earlier snowmelt, and longer snow-free growing seasons. High-resolution aerial photography from 1972 and 2008 identified vegetation encroachment as shrubs and trees have increased in vigor and density in the tundra, while herbaceous tundra plants have colonized high-elevation bare ground. To understand modulations to physical hydrology from climate and biophysical responses, we apply a 20-m resolution fully-distributed hydrologic model. Through the use of observed meteorology (radiation, humidity, temperature and precipitation) an hourly climatology was created. Realizations from a stochastic ensemble of this climatology together with trends from long-term observations are used to characterize historical hydrologic response and project future changes. Through temperature and precipitation change experiments, alterations to the annual water cycle are presented—indicating the importance of annual snowpack evolution on both the surface and sub-surface hydrology, particularly through seasonal water storage. Probabilistic land cover change scenarios are developed that project how further vegetation encroachment modulates surface water fluxes and sediment yields. Lastly, the context of these results are compared with hydrometeorological research from other differing alpine and ecological regions.

  4. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud (United States)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.


    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  5. Assessing The Performance of Hydrological Models (United States)

    van der Knijff, Johan

    The performance of hydrological models is often characterized using the coefficient of efficiency, E. The sensitivity of E to extreme streamflow values, and the difficulty of deciding what value of E should be used as a threshold to identify 'good' models or model parameterizations, have proven to be serious shortcomings of this index. This paper reviews some alternative performance indices that have appeared in the litera- ture. Legates and McCabe (1999) suggested a more generalized form of E, E'(j,B). Here, j is a parameter that controls how much emphasis is put on extreme streamflow values, and B defines a benchmark or 'null hypothesis' against which the results of the model are tested. E'(j,B) was used to evaluate a large number of parameterizations of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, using 6 different combinations of j and B. First, the effect of j and B is explained. Second, it is demonstrated how the index can be used to explicitly test hypotheses about the model and the data. This approach appears to be particularly attractive if the index is used as a likelihood measure within a GLUE-type analysis.

  6. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak


    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  7. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model


    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.


    Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban ...

  8. A Hypothesis-based Approach to Hydrological Model Development: The Case for Flexible Model Structures (United States)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.


    Ambiguities in the appropriate representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. This current overabundance of models is symptomatic of insufficient scientific understanding of environmental dynamics at the catchment scale, which can be attributed to difficulties in quantifying the impact of sub-catchment heterogeneities on the catchment’s hydrological response. In this presentation we advocate the use of flexible modeling frameworks during the development and subsequent refinement of catchment-scale hydrological models. We argue that the ability of flexible modeling frameworks to decompose a model into its constituent hypotheses, necessarily combined with incisive diagnostics to scrutinize these individual hypotheses against observed data, provides hydrologists with a very powerful and systematic approach for improving process representation in models. Flexible models also support a broader coverage of the model hypothesis space and hence facilitate a more comprehensive quantification of the predictive uncertainty associated with system and component non-identifiabilities that plague many model analyses. As part of our discussion of the advantages and limitations of flexible model frameworks, we critically review major contemporary challenges in hydrological hypothesis-testing, including exploiting data to investigate the fidelity of alternative process representations, accounting for model structure ambiguities arising from uncertainty in environmental data, and the challenge of understanding regional differences in dominant hydrological processes. We assess recent progress in these research directions, and how such progress can be exploited within flexible model applications to advance the community’s quest for more scientifically defensible catchment-scale hydrological models.

  9. Modeled hydrologic metrics show links between hydrology and the functional composition of stream assemblages. (United States)

    Patrick, Christopher J; Yuan, Lester L


    Flow alteration is widespread in streams, but current understanding of the effects of differences in flow characteristics on stream biological communities is incomplete. We tested hypotheses about the effect of variation in hydrology on stream communities by using generalized additive models to relate watershed information to the values of different flow metrics at gauged sites. Flow models accounted for 54-80% of the spatial variation in flow metric values among gauged sites. We then used these models to predict flow metrics in 842 ungauged stream sites in the mid-Atlantic United States that were sampled for fish, macroinvertebrates, and environmental covariates. Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages were characterized in terms of a suite of metrics that quantified aspects of community composition, diversity, and functional traits that were expected to be associated with differences in flow characteristics. We related modeled flow metrics to biological metrics in a series of stressor-response models. Our analyses identified both drying and base flow instability as explaining 30-50% of the observed variability in fish and invertebrate community composition. Variations in community composition were related to variations in the prevalence of dispersal traits in invertebrates and trophic guilds in fish. The results demonstrate that we can use statistical models to predict hydrologic conditions at bioassessment sites, which, in turn, we can use to estimate relationships between flow conditions and biological characteristics. This analysis provides an approach to quantify the effects of spatial variation in flow metrics using readily available biomonitoring data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Stoof


    Full Text Available Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We performed a catchment-scale experimental fire to improve insight into the drivers of fire impact on hydrology. In north-central Portugal, rainfall, canopy interception, streamflow and soil moisture were monitored in small shrub-covered paired catchments pre- and post-fire. The shrub cover was medium dense to dense (44 to 84% and pre-fire canopy interception was on average 48.7% of total rainfall. Fire increased streamflow volumes 1.6 times more than predicted, resulting in increased runoff coefficients and changed rainfall-streamflow relationships – although the increase in streamflow per unit rainfall was only significant at the subcatchment-scale. Fire also fastened the response of topsoil moisture to rainfall from 2.7 to 2.1 h (p = 0.058, and caused more rapid drying of topsoils after rain events. Since soil physical changes due to fire were not apparent, we suggest that changes resulting from vegetation removal played an important role in increasing streamflow after fire. Results stress that fire impact on hydrology is largely affected by scale, highlight the hydrological impact of fire on small scales, and emphasize the risk of overestimating fire impact when upscaling plot-scale studies to the catchment-scale. Finally, they increase understanding of the processes contributing to post-fire flooding and erosion events.

  11. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford


    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  12. Lumped conceptual hydrological model for Purna river basin, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Sadhana; Volume 40; Issue 8 ... Conceptual hydrological NAM model; calibration; sensitivity analysis; validation; Tapi basin; Purna catchment. ... In present study, a lumped conceptual hydrological model, NAM (MIKE11), is calibrated while optimizing the runoff simulations on the basis of minimization of ...

  13. Characterizing long-term hydrologic-response and sediment-transport for the R-5 catchment. (United States)

    Heppner, Christopher S; Loague, Keith


    Recently there have been several calls to establish long-term data collection networks to monitor near-surface hydrologic response and landscape evolution. The focus of this paper is a long-term dataset from the International Hydrologic Decade (1965-1974). The small upland catchment, known as R-5, located near Chickasha, Olahoma, has been the subject of considerable attention within the event-based hydrologic modeling community for more than 30 yr. Here, for the first time, 8 yr of continuous near-surface hydrologic-response and sediment-transport data are analyzed to show trends in the catchment's long-term behavior. The datasets include precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, soil-water content, infiltration, water discharge, and sediment discharge. Potential and actual evapotranspiration rates were estimated and used to calculate an average annual water balance for the catchment. Findings include, for example, that rainfall intensity rarely exceeds the threshold for Horton-type runoff, soil-water content is both spatially and temporally variable, and the water and sediment discharge rates are positively correlated. The R-5 data provide a unique opportunity to test (and refine) process-based models of continuous hydrologic response and sediment transport at the catchment scale for applications in the emerging fields of hydroecology and hydrogeomorphology.

  14. Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conceptual rainfall–runoff models have become a basic tool for evaluating effects of land use/cover changes on the hydrologic processes in small-scale as well as large watersheds. The runoff-producing mechanism is influenced by land use/cover changes. In this study, we analysed the effect of land use change on ...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaenal Mubarok


    Full Text Available Change in landuse caused by a population increase from 114,973 people in 2007 to 134,792 people in 2012 (14.70% increased has influenced the hydrological characteristics of Way Betung watershed. The Soil and Water Assesment Tools (SWAT hydrological model could predict the hydrological characteristics influenced by the change in landuse. The aims of this study were: 1 to assess the impact of landuse change on hydrological characteristics; and, 2 to recommend the best landuse of Way Betung Watershed.The SWAT model was applied to simulate the change of landuse in Way Betung watershed. The effects of landuse change on the hydrological characteristics of Way Betung Watershed in 2001, 2006, and 2010 showed  the water yield of 874.66, 1047.70, and 774.04 mm respectively. The coefficient of surface runoff (C for those three years were 0.16, 0.31, and 0.23, whereas the coeficient of river regime were 30.65, 66.25, and 53.57 respectively. The application of agrotechnology on agricultural land and in line with the functions of forest area (scenario 4 gave the best response towards hydrological characteristics in the form of 709.69 mm of water yield with C being 0.14, whereas the coeficient of river regime value was 3.66. 

  16. Population Models for Stream Fish Response to Habitat and Hydrologic Alteration: the CVI Watershed Tool. EPA/600/R-04/190 (United States)

    Models that predict the responses of fish populations and communities to key habitat characteristics are necessary for CVIs watershed management goals, for determining where to restore and how, as well as evaluating the most probable outcome.

  17. Improving hydrological simulations by incorporating GRACE data for model calibration (United States)

    Bai, Peng; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming


    Hydrological model parameters are typically calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the simulated hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. In this study, a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme based on only streamflow simulations. Two hydrological models were employed on 22 catchments in China with different climatic conditions. The model evaluations were performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration scheme provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. The improvement in TWSC and ET simulations was more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. In addition, hydrological models calibrated using GRACE-derived TWSC data alone cannot obtain accurate runoff simulations in ungauged catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints in addition to streamflow observations to improve performances of hydrological models.

  18. An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education (United States)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.


    This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

  19. Evaluation and hydrological modelization in the natural hazard prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pla Sentis, Ildefonso


    Soil degradation affects negatively his functions as a base to produce food, to regulate the hydrological cycle and the environmental quality. All over the world soil degradation is increasing partly due to lacks or deficiencies in the evaluations of the processes and causes of this degradation on each specific situation. The processes of soil physical degradation are manifested through several problems as compaction, runoff, hydric and Eolic erosion, landslides with collateral effects in situ and in the distance, often with disastrous consequences as foods, landslides, sedimentations, droughts, etc. These processes are frequently associated to unfavorable changes into the hydrologic processes responsible of the water balance and soil hydric regimes, mainly derived to soil use changes and different management practices and climatic changes. The evaluation of these processes using simple simulation models; under several scenarios of climatic change, soil properties and land use and management; would allow to predict the occurrence of this disastrous processes and consequently to select and apply the appropriate practices of soil conservation to eliminate or reduce their effects. This simulation models require, as base, detailed climatic information and hydrologic soil properties data. Despite of the existence of methodologies and commercial equipment (each time more sophisticated and precise) to measure the different physical and hydrological soil properties related with degradation processes, most of them are only applicable under really specific or laboratory conditions. Often indirect methodologies are used, based on relations or empiric indexes without an adequate validation, that often lead to expensive mistakes on the evaluation of soil degradation processes and their effects on natural disasters. It could be preferred simple field methodologies, direct and adaptable to different soil types and climates and to the sample size and the spatial variability of the

  20. Evaluation of the value of radar QPE data and rain gauge data for hydrological modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Xin; Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Refsgaard, Jens Christian


    Weather radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is in principle superior to the areal precipitation estimated by using rain gauge data only, and therefore has become increasingly popular in applications such as hydrological modeling. The present study investigates the potential...... rainfall and subsequently the simulated hydrological responses. A headwater catchment located in western Denmark is chosen as the study site. Two hydrological models are built using the MIKE SHE code, where they have identical model structures expect for the rainfall forcing: one model is based on rain...... gauge interpolated rainfall, while the other is based on radar QPE which is a combination of both radar and rain gauge information. The two hydrological models are inversely calibrated and then validated against field observations. The model results show that the improvement introduced by using radar...

  1. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, M.P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.


    Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding

  2. A comparison of hydrological deformation using GPS and global hydrological model for the Eurasian plate (United States)

    Li, Zhen; Yue, Jianping; Li, Wang; Lu, Dekai; Li, Xiaogen


    The 0.5° × 0.5° gridded hydrological loading from Global Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM) mass distributions is adopted for 32 GPS sites on the Eurasian plate from January 2010 to January 2014. When the heights of these sites that have been corrected for the effects of non-tidal atmospheric and ocean loading are adjusted by the hydrological loading deformation, more than one third of the root-mean-square (RMS) values of the GPS height variability become larger. After analyzing the results by continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet transform coherence (WTC), we confirm that hydrological loading primarily contributes to the annual variations in GPS heights. Further, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) is used to investigate the relative phase between the time series of GPS heights and hydrological deformation, and it is indicated that the annual oscillations in the two time series are physically related for some sites; other geophysical effect, GPS systematic errors and hydrological modeling errors could result in the phase asynchrony between GPS and hydrological loading signals for the other sites. Consequently, the phase asynchrony confirms that the annual fluctuations in GPS observations result from a combination of geophysical signals and systematic errors.

  3. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics (United States)

    Seth J. Wenger; Charles H. Luce; Alan F. Hamlet; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville


    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe...

  4. Catchment-scale hydrological modeling and data assimilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Troch, P.A.A.; Paniconi, C.; McLaughlin, D.


    This special issue of Advances in Water Resources presents recent progress in the application of DA (data assimilation) for distributed hydrological modeling and in the use of in situ and remote sensing datasets for hydrological analysis and parameter estimation. The papers were presented at the De

  5. Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Tong, Yang-Bin


    With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for

  6. Moving towards Hyper-Resolution Hydrologic Modeling (United States)

    Rouf, T.; Maggioni, V.; Houser, P.; Mei, Y.


    Developing a predictive capability for terrestrial hydrology across landscapes, with water, energy and nutrients as the drivers of these dynamic systems, faces the challenge of scaling meter-scale process understanding to practical modeling scales. Hyper-resolution land surface modeling can provide a framework for addressing science questions that we are not able to answer with coarse modeling scales. In this study, we develop a hyper-resolution forcing dataset from coarser resolution products using a physically based downscaling approach. These downscaling techniques rely on correlations with landscape variables, such as topography, roughness, and land cover. A proof-of-concept has been implemented over the Oklahoma domain, where high-resolution observations are available for validation purposes. Hourly NLDAS (North America Land Data Assimilation System) forcing data (i.e., near-surface air temperature, pressure, and humidity) have been downscaled to 500m resolution over the study area for 2015-present. Results show that correlation coefficients between the downscaled temperature dataset and ground observations are consistently higher than the ones between the NLDAS temperature data at their native resolution and ground observations. Not only correlation coefficients are higher, but also the deviation around the 1:1 line in the density scatterplots is smaller for the downscaled dataset than the original one with respect to the ground observations. Results are therefore encouraging as they demonstrate that the 500m temperature dataset has a good agreement with the ground information and can be adopted to force the land surface model for soil moisture estimation. The study has been expanded to wind speed and direction, incident longwave and shortwave radiation, pressure, and precipitation. Precipitation is well known to vary dramatically with elevation and orography. Therefore, we are pursuing a downscaling technique based on both topographical and vegetation

  7. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation (United States)

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud


    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  8. A flexible modeling package for topographically based watershed hydrology (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Endreny, Theodore A.; Hassett, James M.


    An OBJect-oriented TOPographic-based (OBJTOP) hydrological model with a graphical user interface (GUI) was created using object-oriented design (OOD) methods and the objected-oriented programming (OOP) language-C++. OBJTOP presents an array of alternative TOPMODEL hydrological processes of (1) saturation excess or the mixture of infiltration/saturation excess overland flow, (2) exponential or power law decay of hydraulic conductivity with soil depth, (3) topographic index (TI) or soil topographic index (STI) weighting of run-off likelihood, and (4) simulations with or without channel routing, to explain watershed response and increase flexibility and applicability. OBJTOP utilized an object-oriented design (OOD) approach, including the 'inheritance' concept to study individual objects (or processes) at multiple levels, and the 'aggregation' concept to study the interactions of objects (or processes). Further, OOD readily provides for model extension, creating a description of hydrologic processes in a natural, direct, concise, and adaptable manner distinct from procedurally designed and implemented models. The OBJTOP GUI provides an efficient tool for data input, parameter modification, simulation scheme selection and model calibration with three objective functions, including Nash-Sutcliffe. Graphical outputs include time series plots of precipitation depth, partitioned run-off volumes, watertable depth (average or TI/STI based), and map graphics of TI, STI, and depth to watertable. Applications illustrating OBJTOP ability and flexibility include simulation of the TOPMODEL standard Slapton Wood, UK dataset, and simulation of Ward Pound Ridge, NY a small forested catchment with power function decay of hydraulic conductivity and extensive impervious surfaces.

  9. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration ... (United States)

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of techniques were applied to the HL assessment unit composition in watersheds across the Pacific Northwest to aggregate the hydrologic behavior of the Hydrologic Landscapes from the assessment unit scale to the watershed scale. This non-trivial solution both emphasizes HL classifications within the watershed that provide that majority of moisture surplus/deficit and considers the relative position (upstream vs. downstream) of these HL classifications. A clustering algorithm was applied to the HL-based characterization of assessment units within 185 watersheds to help organize watersheds into nine classes hypothesized to have similar hydrologic behavior. The HL-based classes were used to organize and describe hydrologic behavior information about watershed classes and both predictions and validations were independently performed with regard to the general magnitude of six hydroclimatic signature values. A second cluster analysis was then performed using the independently calculated signature values as similarity metrics, and it was found that the six signature clusters showed substantial overlap in watershed class membership to those in the HL-based classes. One hypothesis set forward from thi

  10. Hydrologic response of northern wetlands to silvicultural water management systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trettin, C.C.


    Two types of water management systems are used to ameliorate saturated soil conditions which limit silvicultural operations and site productivity in northern wetlands. The pattern ditch system is an intensive drainage network designed to regulate water table depth in peat soils. The prescription drainage system is a low-intensity drainage system that is used to develop apparent drainage patterns in mineral and histic-mineral soils. These water management systems may either increase or decrease peak flow, base flow, and the duration of peak flow events, depending on drainage system design, climate, season, site characteristics, and land use. The most common hydrologic response to drainage is an increase in peak flow and base flow, and an increase in annual runoff. The effect of wetland drainage on watershed hydrology depends on the proportion of the watershed drained. Drainage may also affect water quality, nutrient cycling, vegetation composition and structure.

  11. Hydrology (United States)

    Eisenbies, Mark H.; Hughes, W. Brian


    Hydrologic process are the main determinants of the type of wetland located on a site. Precipitation, groundwater, or flooding interact with soil properties and geomorphic setting to yield a complex matrix of conditions that control groundwater flux, water storage and discharge, water chemistry, biotic productivity, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycling. Hydroperiod affects many abiotic factors that in turn determine plant and animal species composition, biodiversity, primary and secondary productivity, accumulation, of organic matter, and nutrient cycling. Because the hydrologic regime has a major influence on wetland functioning, understanding how hydrologic changes influence ecosystem processes is essential, especially in light of the pressures placed on remaining wetlands by society's demands for water resources and by potential global changes in climate.

  12. Hydrological improvements for nutrient and pollutant emission modeling in large scale catchments (United States)

    Höllering, S.; Ihringer, J.


    An estimation of emissions and loads of nutrients and pollutants into European water bodies with as much accuracy as possible depends largely on the knowledge about the spatially and temporally distributed hydrological runoff patterns. An improved hydrological water balance model for the pollutant emission model MoRE (Modeling of Regionalized Emissions) (IWG, 2011) has been introduced, that can form an adequate basis to simulate discharge in a hydrologically differentiated, land-use based way to subsequently provide the required distributed discharge components. First of all the hydrological model had to comply both with requirements of space and time in order to calculate sufficiently precise the water balance on the catchment scale spatially distributed in sub-catchments and with a higher temporal resolution. Aiming to reproduce seasonal dynamics and the characteristic hydrological regimes of river catchments a daily (instead of a yearly) time increment was applied allowing for a more process oriented simulation of discharge dynamics, volume and therefore water balance. The enhancement of the hydrological model became also necessary to potentially account for the hydrological functioning of catchments in regard to scenarios of e.g. a changing climate or alterations of land use. As a deterministic, partly physically based, conceptual hydrological watershed and water balance model the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (USGS, 2009) was selected to improve the hydrological input for MoRE. In PRMS the spatial discretization is implemented with sub-catchments and so called hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are the hydrotropic, distributed, finite modeling entities each having a homogeneous runoff reaction due to hydro-meteorological events. Spatial structures and heterogeneities in sub-catchments e.g. urbanity, land use and soil types were identified to derive hydrological similarities and classify in different urban and rural HRUs. In this way the

  13. Hydrological modeling of the Jiaoyi watershed (China) using HSPF model. (United States)

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie


    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001-2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R (2)), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin.

  14. Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.


    . Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...

  15. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky


    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  16. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.


    Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not

  17. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  18. Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO2. (United States)

    Lemordant, Léo; Gentine, Pierre; Swann, Abigail S; Cook, Benjamin I; Scheff, Jacob


    Predicting how increasing atmospheric CO 2 will affect the hydrologic cycle is of utmost importance for a range of applications ranging from ecological services to human life and activities. A typical perspective is that hydrologic change is driven by precipitation and radiation changes due to climate change, and that the land surface will adjust. Using Earth system models with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and atmospheric (radiative) CO 2 responses, we here show that the CO 2 physiological response has a dominant role in evapotranspiration and evaporative fraction changes and has a major effect on long-term runoff compared with radiative or precipitation changes due to increased atmospheric CO 2 This major effect is true for most hydrological stress variables over the largest fraction of the globe, except for soil moisture, which exhibits a more nonlinear response. This highlights the key role of vegetation in controlling future terrestrial hydrologic response and emphasizes that the carbon and water cycles are intimately coupled over land. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  19. Modeling the hydrological patterns on Pantanal wetlands, Brazil (United States)

    Castro, A. A.; Cuartas, A.; Coe, M. T.; Koumrouyan, A.; Panday, P. K.; Lefebvre, P.; Padovani, C.; Costa, M. H.; de Oliveira, G. S.


    The Pantanal of Brazil is one of the world's largest wetland regions. It is located within the 370,000 km2 Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). In wet years almost 15% of the total area of the basin can be flooded (approximately 53,000 km2). The hydrological cycle is particularly important in the Pantanal in the transport of materials, and the transfer of energy between atmospheric, aquatic, and terrestrial systems. The INLAND (Integrated Land Surface Model) terrestrial ecosystem model is coupled with the THMB hydrological model to examine the hydrological balance and water dynamics for this region. The INLAND model is based on the IBIS dynamic vegetation model, while THMB represents the river, wetland and lake dynamics of the land surface. The modeled hydrological components are validated with surface and satellite-based estimates of precipitation (gridded observations from CRU v. 3.21, reanalysis data from ERA-interim, and TRMM estimates), evapotranspiration (MODIS and Land Flux-Eval dataset), total runoff (discharge data from ANA-Agência Nacional das Águas - Brazil), and terrestrial water storage (GRACE). Results show that the coupled hydrological model adequately represents the water cycle components, the river discharge and flooded areas. Model simulations are further used to study the influences of climatic variations on the hydrological components, river network, and the inundated areas in the Pantanal.

  20. OpenDA-WFLOW framework for improving hydrologic predictions using distributed hydrologic models (United States)

    Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; Kockx, Arno; Hummel, Stef


    Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions (Liu et al., 2012) and increase the potential for early warning and/or smart water management. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not yet been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. The objective of this work is to highlight the development of a generic linkage of the open source OpenDA package and the open source community hydrologic modeling framework Openstreams/WFLOW and its application in operational hydrological forecasting on various spatial scales. The coupling between OpenDA and Openstreams/wflow framework is based on the emerging standard Basic Model Interface (BMI) as advocated by CSDMS using cross-platform webservices (i.e. Apache Thrift) developed by Hut et al. (2016). The potential application of the OpenDA-WFLOW for operational hydrologic forecasting including its integration with Delft-FEWS (used by more than 40 operational forecast centers around the world (Werner et al., 2013)) is demonstrated by the presented case studies. We will also highlight the possibility to give real-time insight into the working of the DA methods applied for supporting the forecaster as mentioned as one of the burning issues by Liu et al., (2012).

  1. Disaggregation, aggregation and spatial scaling in hydrological modelling (United States)

    Becker, Alfred; Braun, Peter


    A typical feature of the land surface is its heterogeneity in terms of the spatial variability of land surface characteristics and parameters controlling physical/hydrological, biological, and other related processes. Different forms and degrees of heterogeneity need to be taken into account in hydrological modelling. The first part of the article concerns the conditions under which a disaggregation of the land surface into subareas of uniform or "quasihomogeneous" behaviour (hydrotopes or hydrological response units - HRUs) is indispensable. In a case study in northern Germany, it is shown that forests in contrast to arable land, areas with shallow groundwater in contrast to those with deep, water surfaces and sealed areas should generally be distinguished (disaggregated) in modelling, whereas internal heterogeneities within these hydrotopes can be assessed statistically, e.g., by areal distribution functions (soil water holding capacity, hydraulic conductivity, etc.). Models with hydrotope-specific parameters can be applied to calculate the "vertical" processes (fluxes, storages, etc.), and this, moreover, for hydrotopes of different area, and even for groups of distributed hydrotopes in a reference area (hydrotope classes), provided that the meteorological conditions are similar. Thus, a scaling problem does not really exist in this process domain. The primary domain for the application of scaling laws is that of lateral flows in landscapes and river basins. This is illustrated in the second part of the article, where results of a case study in Bavaria/Germany are presented and discussed. It is shown that scaling laws can be applied efficiently for the determination of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) of the surface runoff system in river basins: simple scaling for basins larger than 43 km 2, and multiple scaling for smaller basins. Surprisingly, only two parameters were identified as important in the derived relations: the drainage area and, in some

  2. Human-water interface in hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Roo, de Ad; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Famiglietti, James S.; Hanasaki, Naota; Konar, Megan; Liu, Junguo; Schmied, Hannes Möller; Oki, Taikan; Pokhrel, Yadu; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Troy, Tara J.; Dijk, Van Albert I.J.M.; Emmerik, Van Tim; Huijgevoort, Van Marjolein H.J.; Lanen, van Henny A.J.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Wanders, Niko; Wheater, Howard


    Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial

  3. Cyberinfrastructure to Support Collaborative and Reproducible Computational Hydrologic Modeling (United States)

    Goodall, J. L.; Castronova, A. M.; Bandaragoda, C.; Morsy, M. M.; Sadler, J. M.; Essawy, B.; Tarboton, D. G.; Malik, T.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Liu, Y.; Wang, S. W.


    Creating cyberinfrastructure to support reproducibility of computational hydrologic models is an important research challenge. Addressing this challenge requires open and reusable code and data with machine and human readable metadata, organized in ways that allow others to replicate results and verify published findings. Specific digital objects that must be tracked for reproducible computational hydrologic modeling include (1) raw initial datasets, (2) data processing scripts used to clean and organize the data, (3) processed model inputs, (4) model results, and (5) the model code with an itemization of all software dependencies and computational requirements. HydroShare is a cyberinfrastructure under active development designed to help users store, share, and publish digital research products in order to improve reproducibility in computational hydrology, with an architecture supporting hydrologic-specific resource metadata. Researchers can upload data required for modeling, add hydrology-specific metadata to these resources, and use the data directly within for collaborative modeling using tools like CyberGIS, Sciunit-CLI, and JupyterHub that have been integrated with HydroShare to run models using notebooks, Docker containers, and cloud resources. Current research aims to implement the Structure For Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) hydrologic model within HydroShare to support hypothesis-driven hydrologic modeling while also taking advantage of the HydroShare cyberinfrastructure. The goal of this integration is to create the cyberinfrastructure that supports hypothesis-driven model experimentation, education, and training efforts by lowering barriers to entry, reducing the time spent on informatics technology and software development, and supporting collaborative research within and across research groups.

  4. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process (United States)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.


    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

  5. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Cristiano


    Full Text Available In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

  6. Landscape-based hydrological modelling : Understanding the influence of climate, topography, and vegetation on catchment hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, H.


    In this thesis, a novel landscape-based hydrological model is presented that was developed and tested in numerous catchments around the world with various landscapes and climate conditions. A landscape is considered to consist of a topography and an ecosystem living on it. Firstly, the influence of

  7. Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.


    There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled

  8. Multilayer Control Hierarchy in an Integrated Hydrological Model (United States)

    Park, J.; Obeysekera, J.; Vanzee, R.


    Considerable progress has been made in the functionality of integrated hydrological models which can provide evaluation of anthropogenic control and management policies of water resources. Nonetheless, there is still room for improvement in the coupling and expression of water control policies into hydrological models [1]. The Management Simulation Engine (MSE) component of the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) incorporates a multi-level hierarchical control architecture which emphasizes the decoupling of hydrological state information from the management information processing applied to the states. The MSE is intended to allow a flexible, extensible expression of a wide variety anthropogenic water resource control schemes integrated with the hydrological state evaluations of the RSM. Synergy between the multilayer control hierarchy and decoupled hydrologic state and management information facilitates a water resource management feature set not typical of integrated hydrological models. Some of these features include: interoperation and compatibility of diverse management algorithms such as PID, Fuzzy control, LP; and dynamic switching of control processors. This paper describes the MSE control hierarchy with a focus on the aforementioned features and their implementation. [1] Belaineh, G., Peralta, R. C., Hughes, T. C., Simulation/ Optimization Modeling for Water Resources Management, ASCE Journal Water Resources Planning Management, 125(3), p 154-61, 1999

  9. Evaluating the Hydrologic Sensitivities of Three Land Surface Models to Bound Uncertainties in Runoff Projections (United States)

    Chiao, T.; Nijssen, B.; Stickel, L.; Lettenmaier, D. P.


    Hydrologic modeling is often used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability and quality. A common approach in these studies is to calibrate the selected model(s) to reproduce historic stream flows prior to the application of future climate projections. This approach relies on the implicit assumptions that the sensitivities of these models to meteorological fluctuations will remain relatively constant under climate change and that these sensitivities are similar among models if all models are calibrated to the same historic record. However, even if the models are able to capture the historic variability in hydrological variables, differences in model structure and parameter estimation contribute to the uncertainties in projected runoff, which confounds the incorporation of these results into water resource management decision-making. A better understanding of the variability in hydrologic sensitivities between different models can aid in bounding this uncertainty. In this research, we characterized the hydrologic sensitivities of three watershed-scale land surface models through a case study of the Bull Run watershed in Northern Oregon. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) were implemented and calibrated individually to historic streamflow using a common set of long-term, gridded forcings. In addition to analyzing model performances for a historic period, we quantified the temperature sensitivity (defined as change in runoff in response to change in temperature) and precipitation elasticity (defined as change in runoff in response to change in precipitation) of these three models via perturbation of the historic climate record using synthetic experiments. By comparing how these three models respond to changes in climate forcings, this research aims to test the assumption of constant and similar hydrologic sensitivities. Our

  10. Supporting the operational use of process based hydrological models and NASA Earth Observations for use in land management and post-fire remediation through a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED). (United States)

    Miller, M. E.; Elliot, W.; Billmire, M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Banach, D. M.


    We have built a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED, for the continental United States to allow land managers to access properly formatted spatial model inputs for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). Spatially-explicit process-based models like WEPP require spatial inputs that include digital elevation models (DEMs), soil, climate and land cover. The online database delivers either a 10m or 30m USGS DEM, land cover derived from the Landfire project, and soil data derived from SSURGO and STATSGO datasets. The spatial layers are projected into UTM coordinates and pre-registered for modeling. WEPP soil parameter files are also created along with linkage files to match both spatial land cover and soils data with the appropriate WEPP parameter files. Our goal is to make process-based models more accessible by preparing spatial inputs ahead of time allowing modelers to focus on addressing scenarios of concern. The database provides comprehensive support for post-fire hydrological modeling by allowing users to upload spatial soil burn severity maps, and within moments returns spatial model inputs. Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. After moderate and high severity wildfires, flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fire, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, creating an urgent need for rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. The database has been used to help assess and plan remediation on over a dozen wildfires in the Western US. Future plans include expanding spatial coverage, improving model input data and supporting additional models. Our goal is to facilitate the use of the best possible datasets and models to support the conservation of soil and water.

  11. Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell


    Full Text Available This paper assesses the relationship between amount of climate forcing – as indexed by global mean temperature change – and hydrological response in a sample of UK catchments. It constructs climate scenarios representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 21 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a considerable range in impact between the 21 climate models, with – for example – change in summer runoff at a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature varying between −40% and +20%. There is evidence of clustering in the results, particularly in projected changes in summer runoff and indicators of low flows, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact, and that the standard deviation of responses does not adequately characterise uncertainty. The uncertainty in hydrological impact is therefore best characterised by considering the shape of the distribution of responses across multiple climate scenarios. For some climate model patterns, and some catchments, there is also evidence that linear climate change forcings produce non-linear hydrological impacts. For most variables and catchments, the effects of climate change are apparent above the effects of natural multi-decadal variability with an increase in global mean temperature above 1 °C, but there are differences between catchments. Based on the scenarios represented in the ensemble, the effect of climate change in northern upland catchments will be seen soonest in indicators of high flows, but in southern catchments effects will be apparent soonest in measures of summer and low flows. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation.

  12. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology (United States)

    Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.


    Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

  13. European Continental Scale Hydrological Model, Limitations and Challenges (United States)

    Rouholahnejad, E.; Abbaspour, K.


    The pressures on water resources due to increasing levels of societal demand, increasing conflict of interest and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers and policymakers in many parts of Europe. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of pressure and uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. On the other hand, the small-scale sectoral structure of water management is now reaching its limits. The integrated management of water in basins requires a new level of consideration where water bodies are to be viewed in the context of the whole river system and managed as a unit within their basins. In this research we present the limitations and challenges of modelling the hydrology of the continent Europe. The challenges include: data availability at continental scale and the use of globally available data, streamgauge data quality and their misleading impacts on model calibration, calibration of large-scale distributed model, uncertainty quantification, and computation time. We describe how to avoid over parameterization in calibration process and introduce a parallel processing scheme to overcome high computation time. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program as an integrated hydrology and crop growth simulator to model water resources of the Europe continent. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals for the period of 1970-2006. The use of a large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation and provides the overall picture of water resources temporal and spatial distribution across the continent. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water

  14. Human-water interface in hydrological modelling


    Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Roo, de, Ad; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Famiglietti, James S.; Hanasaki, Naota; Konar, Megan; Liu, Junguo; Schmied, Hannes Möller; Oki, Taikan; Pokhrel, Yadu; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Troy, Tara J.; Dijk, Van, Albert I.J.M.; Emmerik, Van, Tim


    Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global wate...

  15. A meteo-hydrological prediction system based on a multi-model approach for precipitation forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Davolio


    Full Text Available The precipitation forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model, even at high resolution, suffers from errors which can be considerable at the scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In the present study, a fraction of the uncertainty related to meteorological prediction is taken into account by implementing a multi-model forecasting approach, aimed at providing multiple precipitation scenarios driving the same hydrological model. Therefore, the estimation of that uncertainty associated with the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF, conveyed by the multi-model ensemble, can be exploited by the hydrological model, propagating the error into the hydrological forecast.

    The proposed meteo-hydrological forecasting system is implemented and tested in a real-time configuration for several episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Reno river basin, a medium-sized basin located in northern Italy (Apennines. These episodes are associated with flood events of different intensity and are representative of different meteorological configurations responsible for severe weather affecting northern Apennines.

    The simulation results show that the coupled system is promising in the prediction of discharge peaks (both in terms of amount and timing for warning purposes. The ensemble hydrological forecasts provide a range of possible flood scenarios that proved to be useful for the support of civil protection authorities in their decision.

  16. Impact of the use of a CO2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins (United States)

    Queguiner, S.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Calvet, J.-C.; Faroux, S.; Quintana-Seguí, P.


    In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs) is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared for the present climate and for that at the end of the century. Reasonable agreement is found between models and with discharge observations. However, ISBA-A-gs has a lower mean evapotranspiration and a higher discharge than ISBA-Standard. Results for the impact of climate change are coherent on a yearly basis for evapotranspiration, total runoff, and discharge. However, the two versions of ISBA present contrasting seasonal variations. ISBA-A-gs develops a different vegetation cycle. The growth of the vegetation begins earlier and reaches a slightly lower maximum than in the present climate. This maximum is followed by a rapid decrease in summertime. In consequence, the springtime evapotranspiration is significantly increased when compared to ISBA-Standard, while the autumn evapotranspiration is lower. On average, discharge changes are more significant at the regional scale with ISBA-A-gs.

  17. Coupling Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Models to Estimate PMF (United States)

    Felder, G.; Weingartner, R.


    Most sophisticated probable maximum flood (PMF) estimations derive the PMF from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by applying deterministic hydrologic models calibrated with observed data. This method is based on the assumption that the hydrological system is stationary, meaning that the system behaviour during the calibration period or the calibration event is presumed to be the same as it is during the PMF. However, as soon as a catchment-specific threshold is reached, the system is no longer stationary. At or beyond this threshold, retention areas, new flow paths, and changing runoff processes can strongly affect downstream peak discharge. These effects can be accounted for by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, a technique that is particularly promising when the expected peak discharge may considerably exceed the observed maximum discharge. In such cases, the coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models has the potential to significantly increase the physical plausibility of PMF estimations. This procedure ensures both that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit based on riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered. Our study discusses the prospect of considering retention effects on PMF estimations by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. This method is tested by forcing PREVAH, a semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model, with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to externally force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). Finally, the PMF estimation results obtained using the coupled modelling approach are compared to the results obtained using ordinary hydrologic modelling.

  18. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.


    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  19. airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre


    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

  20. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions. (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun


    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  1. Hydrologic response to valley-scale structure in alpine headwaters (United States)

    Weekes, Anne A.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Montgomery, David R.; Woodward, Andrea; Bolton, Susan M.


    Few systematic studies of valley-scale geomorphic drivers of streamflow regimes in complex alpine headwaters have compared response between catchments. As a result, little guidance is available for regional-scale hydrological research and monitoring efforts that include assessments of ecosystem function. Physical parameters such as slope, elevation range, drainage area and bedrock geology are often used to stratify differences in streamflow response between sampling sites within an ecoregion. However, these metrics do not take into account geomorphic controls on streamflow specific to glaciated mountain headwaters. The coarse-grained nature of depositional features in alpine catchments suggests that these landforms have little water storage capacity because hillslope runoff moves rapidly just beneath the rock mantle before emerging in fluvial networks. However, recent studies show that a range of depositional features, including talus slopes, protalus ramparts and 'rock-ice' features may have more storage capacity than previously thought.

  2. Continuous hydrological modelling in the context of real time flood forecasting in alpine Danube tributary catchments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanzel, Ph; Kahl, B; Haberl, U; Herrnegger, M; Nachtnebel, H P


    A hydrological modelling framework applied within operational flood forecasting systems in three alpine Danube tributary basins, Traisen, Salzach and Enns, is presented. A continuous, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model, accounting for the main hydrological processes of snow accumulation and melt, interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff generation and routing is set up. Spatial discretization relies on the division of watersheds into subbasins and subsequently into hydrologic response units based on spatial information on soil types, land cover and elevation bands. The hydrological models are calibrated with meteorological ground measurements and with meteorological analyses incorporating radar information. Operationally, each forecasting sequence starts with the re-calculation of the last 24 to 48 hours. Errors between simulated and observed runoff are minimized by optimizing a correction factor for the input to provide improved system states. For the hydrological forecast quantitative 48 or 72 hour forecast grids of temperature and precipitation - deterministic and probabilistic - are used as input. The forecasted hydrograph is corrected with an autoregressive model. The forecasting sequences are repeated each 15 minutes. First evaluations of resulting hydrological forecasts are presented and reliability of forecasts with different lead times is discussed.

  3. Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoof, C.R.; Vervoort, R.W.; Iwema, J.; Elsen, van den H.G.M.; Ferreira, A.J.D.; Ritsema, C.J.


    Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We

  4. Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.


    HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

  5. Stochastic modeling of interannual variation of hydrologic variables (United States)

    Dralle, David; Karst, Nathaniel; Müller, Marc; Vico, Giulia; Thompson, Sally E.


    Quantifying the interannual variability of hydrologic variables (such as annual flow volumes, and solute or sediment loads) is a central challenge in hydrologic modeling. Annual or seasonal hydrologic variables are themselves the integral of instantaneous variations and can be well approximated as an aggregate sum of the daily variable. Process-based, probabilistic techniques are available to describe the stochastic structure of daily flow, yet estimating interannual variations in the corresponding aggregated variable requires consideration of the autocorrelation structure of the flow time series. Here we present a method based on a probabilistic streamflow description to obtain the interannual variability of flow-derived variables. The results provide insight into the mechanistic genesis of interannual variability of hydrologic processes. Such clarification can assist in the characterization of ecosystem risk and uncertainty in water resources management. We demonstrate two applications, one quantifying seasonal flow variability and the other quantifying net suspended sediment export.

  6. A spatial and temporal continuous surface-subsurface hydrologic model (United States)

    Xiao, Qing-Fu; Ustin, Susan L.; Wallender, Wesley W.


    A hydrologic model integrating surface-subsurface processes was developed based on spatial and temporal continuity theory. The raster-based mass balance hydrologic model consists of several submodels which determine spatial and temporal patterns in precipitation, surface flow, infiltration, subsurface flow, and the linkages between these submodels. Model parameters and variables are derived directly or indirectly from satellite remote sensing data, topographic maps, soil maps, literature, and weather station data and are stored in a Geographic Information System (GIS) database used for visualization. Surface resolution of cells in the model is 20 m by 20 m (pixel resolution of the Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) satellite image) over a 2511 km2 study area around the Crazy Mountains, Alaska, a watershed on the Arctic Circle draining into the Yukon River. The outputs from this model illustrate the interaction of physical and biologic factors on the partitioning of hydrologic components in a complex landscape.

  7. Tuning hydrological models for ecological modeling - improving simulations of low flows critical to stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin; Troldborg, Lars; Boegh, Eva


    The consequences of using simulated discharge from a conventional hydrological model as input in stream physical habitat modelling was investigated using output from the Danish national hydrological model and a physical habitat model of three small streams. It was found that low flow simulation...... errors could have large impact on simulation of physical habitat conditions. If these two models are to be used to assess groundwater abstraction impact on physical habitat conditions the hydrological model should be tuned to the purpose...

  8. Tuning hydrological models for ecological modeling – improving simulations of low flows critical to stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin; Troldborg, Lars; Boegh, Eva


    The consequences of using simulated discharge from a conventional hydrological model as input in stream physical habitat modelling was investigated using output from the Danish national hydrological model and a physical habitat model of three small streams. It was found that low flow simulation...... errors could have large impact on simulation of physical habitat conditions. If these two models are to be used to assess groundwater abstraction impact on physical habitat conditions the hydrological model should be tuned to the purpose...

  9. Lumped conceptual hydrological model for Purna river basin, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    graphical information system (GIS) based hydrological models are becoming increasingly useful in prediction of ... models are preferred over lumped conceptual models in prediction of runoff provided exten- sive data ..... high values of CQOF may be ascribed due to presence of certain low permeable soil like clay and bare ...

  10. Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool (United States)

    Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.


    Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

  11. Simulating cold-region hydrology in an intensively drained agricultural watershed in Manitoba, Canada, using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. C. Cordeiro


    Full Text Available Etrophication and flooding are perennial problems in agricultural watersheds of the northern Great Plains. A high proportion of annual runoff and nutrient transport occurs with snowmelt in this region. Extensive surface drainage modification, frozen soils, and frequent backwater or ice-damming impacts on flow measurement represent unique challenges to accurately modelling watershed-scale hydrological processes. A physically based, non-calibrated model created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM was parameterized to simulate hydrological processes within a low slope, clay soil, and intensively surface drained agricultural watershed. These characteristics are common to most tributaries of the Red River of the north. Analysis of the observed water level records for the study watershed (La Salle River indicates that ice cover and backwater issues at time of peak flow may impact the accuracy of both modelled and measured streamflows, highlighting the value of evaluating a non-calibrated model in this environment. Simulations best matched the streamflow record in years when peak and annual discharges were equal to or above the medians of 6.7 m3 s−1 and 1.25  × 107 m3, respectively, with an average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE of 0.76. Simulation of low-flow years (below the medians was more challenging (average NSE  <  0, with simulated discharge overestimated by 90 % on average. This result indicates the need for improved understanding of hydrological response in the watershed under drier conditions. Simulation during dry years was improved when infiltration was allowed prior to soil thaw, indicating the potential importance of preferential flow. Representation of in-channel dynamics and travel time under the flooded or ice-jam conditions should also receive attention in further model development efforts. Despite the complexities of the study watershed, simulations of flow for average to high

  12. Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India (United States)

    Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter


    Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

  13. Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference (United States)

    Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose


    Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

  14. The role of hydrological model complexity and uncertainty in climate change impact assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Caya


    Full Text Available Little quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment. This study investigates and compares the varieties of different model response of three hydrological models (PROMET, Hydrotel, HSAMI, each representing a different model complexity in terms of process description, parameter space and spatial and temporal scale. The study is performed in the Ammer watershed, a 709 km2 catchment in the Bavarian alpine forelands, Germany. All models are driven and validated by a 30-year time-series (1971–2000 of observation data. It is expressed by objective functions, that all models, HSAMI and Hydrotel due to calibration, perform almost equally well for runoff simulation over the validation period. Some systematic deviances in the hydrographs and the spatial patterns of hydrologic variables are however quite distinct and thus further discussed.

    Virtual future climate (2071–2100 is generated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (vers 3.7.1, driven by the Coupled Global Climate Model (vers. 2 based on an A2 emission scenario (IPCC 2007. The hydrological model performance is evaluated by flow indicators, such as flood frequency, annual 7-day and 30-day low flow and maximum seasonal flows. The modified climatic boundary conditions cause dramatic deviances in hydrologic model response. HSAMI shows tremendous overestimation of evapotranspiration, while Hydrotel and PROMET behave in comparable range. Still, their significant differences, like spatially explicit patterns of summerly water shortage or spring flood intensity, highlight the necessity to extend and quantify the uncertainty discussion in climate change impact analysis towards the remarkable effect of hydrological model complexity. It is obvious that for specific application purposes, water resources managers need to be made aware of this effect and have to take its implications into account for

  15. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag (United States)

    Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil


    A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow-subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  16. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Koziol


    Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  17. Determination of spatial scale of response unit for WASSI-C eco–hydrological model—a case study on the upper Zagunao River watershed of China (United States)

    Ning Liu; Peng-Sen Sun; Shi-Rong Liu; Ge Sun


    Main publication is written in Chinese.Aims: Optimal spatial scale of hydrological response unit (HRU) is a precondition for eco-hydrological modeling as it is essential to improve accuracy. Our objective was to evaluate the spatial scale of HRU for application of the WASSSI-C model.Methods: We determined the best HRU scale for the eco-...

  18. Thermodynamic and dynamic responses of the hydrological cycle to solar dimming (United States)

    Smyth, Jane E.; Russotto, Rick D.; Storelvmo, Trude


    The fundamental role of the hydrological cycle in the global climate system motivates a thorough evaluation of its responses to climate change and mitigation. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinated international effort to assess the climate impacts of solar geoengineering, a proposal to counteract global warming with a reduction in incoming solar radiation. We assess the mechanisms underlying the rainfall response to a simplified simulation of such solar dimming (G1) in the suite of GeoMIP models and identify robust features. While solar geoengineering nearly restores preindustrial temperatures, the global hydrology is altered. Tropical precipitation changes dominate the response across the model suite, and these are driven primarily by shifts of the Hadley circulation cells. We report a damping of the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in G1, associated with preferential cooling of the summer hemisphere, and annual mean ITCZ shifts in some models that are correlated with the warming of one hemisphere relative to the other. Dynamical changes better explain the varying tropical rainfall anomalies between models than changes in relative humidity or the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), given that the relative humidity and temperature responses are robust across the suite. Strong reductions in relative humidity over vegetated land regions are likely related to the CO2 physiological response in plants. The uncertainty in the spatial distribution of tropical P - E changes highlights the need for cautious consideration and continued study before any implementation of solar geoengineering.

  19. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik


    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  20. A distributed eco-hydrological model and its application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zong-xue Xu


    Full Text Available Eco-hydrological processes in arid areas are the focus of many hydrological and water resources studies. However, the hydrological cycle and the ecological system have usually been considered separately in most previous studies, and the correlation between the two has not been fully understood. Interdisciplinary research on eco-hydrological processes using multidisciplinary knowledge has been insufficient. In order to quantitatively analyze and evaluate the interaction between the ecosystem and the hydrological cycle, a new kind of eco-hydrological model, the ecology module for a grid-based integrated surface and groundwater model (Eco-GISMOD, is proposed with a two-way coupling approach, which combines the ecological model (EPIC and hydrological model (GISMOD by considering water exchange in the soil layer. Water interaction between different soil layers is simply described through a generalized physical process in various situations. A special method was used to simulate the water exchange between plants and the soil layer, taking into account precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil water replenishment, and root water uptake. In order to evaluate the system performance, the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China was selected for a case study. The results show that forests and crops were generally growing well with sufficient water supply, but water shortages, especially in the summer, inhibited the growth of grass and caused grass degradation. This demonstrates that water requirements and water consumption for different kinds of vegetation can be estimated by considering the water-supply rules of Eco-GISMOD, which will be helpful for the planning and management of water resources in the future.

  1. Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model (United States)

    Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.


    Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire

  2. Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.


    Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

  3. Can citizen-based observations be assimilated in hydrological models to improve flood prediction? (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Solomatine, Dimitri P.


    In the recent years, the continued technological improvement has stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors that can be used to measure hydrological variables by citizens in a more spatially distributed way than classic static physical sensors. However, such measurements have the main characteristics to have irregular arrival time and variable uncertainty. This study presents a Kalman filter based method to integrate citizen-based observations into hydrological models in order to improve flood prediction. The methodology is applied in the Brue catchment, South West of England. In order to estimate the response of the catchment to a given flood event, a lumped conceptual hydrological model is implemented. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological model. Synthetic streamflow values are used in this study due to the fact that citizen-based observations coming at irregular time steps are not available. The results of this study pointed out how increasing the number of uncertain citizen-based observations within two model time steps can improve the model accuracy leading to a better flood forecast. Therefore, observations uncertainty influences the model accuracy more than the irregular moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological model. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (

  4. Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss (United States)

    Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine


    Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

  5. Hydrological Modeling in Alaska with WRF-Hydro (United States)

    Elmer, N. J.; Zavodsky, B.; Molthan, A.


    The operational National Water Model (NWM), implemented in August 2016, is an instantiation of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro). Currently, the NWM only covers the contiguous United States, but will be expanded to include an Alaska domain in the future. It is well known that Alaska presents several hydrological modeling challenges, including unique arctic/sub-arctic hydrological processes not observed elsewhere in the United States and a severe lack of in-situ observations for model initialization. This project sets up an experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to gauge the ability of WRF-Hydro to represent hydrological processes in Alaska and identify model calibration challenges. Recent and upcoming launches of hydrology-focused NASA satellite missions such as the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) expand the spatial and temporal coverage of observations in Alaska, so this study also lays the groundwork for assimilating these NASA datasets into WRF-Hydro in the future.

  6. Creating Data and Modeling Enabled Hydrology Instruction Using Collaborative Approach (United States)

    Merwade, V.; Rajib, A.; Ruddell, B. L.; Fox, S.


    Hydrology instruction typically involves teaching of the hydrologic cycle and the processes associated with it such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff generation and hydrograph analysis. With the availability of observed and remotely sensed data related to many hydrologic fluxes, there is an opportunity to use these data for place based learning in hydrology classrooms. However, it is not always easy and possible for an instructor to complement an existing hydrology course with new material that requires both the time and technical expertise, which the instructor may not have. The work presented here describes an effort where students create the data and modeling driven instruction material as a part of their class assignment for a hydrology course at Purdue University. The data driven hydrology education project within Science Education Resources Center (SERC) is used as a platform to publish and share the instruction material so it can be used by future students in the same course or any other course anywhere in the world. Students in the class were divided into groups, and each group was assigned a topic such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, flow duration curve and frequency analysis. Each student in the group was then asked to get data and do some analysis for an area with specific landuse characteristic such as urban, rural and agricultural. The student contribution were then organized into learning units such that someone can do a flow duration curve analysis or flood frequency analysis to see how it changes for rural area versus urban area. The hydrology education project within SERC cyberinfrastructure enables any other instructor to adopt this material as is or through modification to suit his/her place based instruction needs.

  7. Understanding uncertainty in process-based hydrological models (United States)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Slater, A. G.; Newman, A. J.; Marks, D. G.; Landry, C.; Lundquist, J. D.; Rupp, D. E.; Nijssen, B.


    Building an environmental model requires making a series of decisions regarding the appropriate representation of natural processes. While some of these decisions can already be based on well-established physical understanding, gaps in our current understanding of environmental dynamics, combined with incomplete knowledge of properties and boundary conditions of most environmental systems, make many important modeling decisions far more ambiguous. There is consequently little agreement regarding what a 'correct' model structure is, especially at relatively larger spatial scales such as catchments and beyond. In current practice, faced with such a range of decisions, different modelers will generally make different modeling decisions, often on an ad hoc basis, based on their balancing of process understanding, the data available to evaluate the model, the purpose of the modeling exercise, and their familiarity with or investment in an existing model infrastructure. This presentation describes development and application of multiple-hypothesis models to evaluate process-based hydrologic models. Our numerical model uses robust solutions of the hydrology and thermodynamic governing equations as the structural core, and incorporates multiple options to represent the impact of different modeling decisions, including multiple options for model parameterizations (e.g., below-canopy wind speed, thermal conductivity, storage and transmission of liquid water through soil, etc.), as well as multiple options for model architecture, that is, the coupling and organization of different model components (e.g., representations of sub-grid variability and hydrologic connectivity, coupling with groundwater, etc.). Application of this modeling framework across a collection of different research basins demonstrates that differences among model parameterizations are often overwhelmed by differences among equally-plausible model parameter sets, while differences in model architecture lead

  8. Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia - status and challenges (United States)

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi


    Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

  9. WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model (United States)

    The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

  10. Hydrological now- and forecasting : Integration of operationally available remotely sensed and forecasted hydrometeorological variables into distributed hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuurmans, J.M.


    Keywords: hydrology, models, soil moisture, rainfall, radar, rain gauge, remote sensing, evapotranspiration, forecasting, numerical weather prediction, Netherlands, Langbroekerwetering, Lopikerwaard. Computer simulation models are an important tool for hydrologists. With these models they can

  11. Use of remote sensing data in distributed hydrological models: applications in the Senegal River basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandholt, Inge; Andersen, Jens Asger; Gybkjær, Gorm


    Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she......Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she...

  12. The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria G.; Rendon, Samuel H.; Banta, John


    Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush

  13. Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models (United States)

    Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.


    Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

  14. Satellite data as complementary information for hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winsemius, H.C.


    Hydrological models at river basin scale are needed to predict floods, droughts, available water, and effects of future changes, caused by climate and land cover change. However, in many river basins, there is not enough data available to construct these models. Fortunately, it becomes more and more

  15. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Markstrom


    Full Text Available parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1 the sensitive input parameters and (2 particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es. Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1. Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1 the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2 the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3 different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4 some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.

  16. Hydrological Modelling of Small Scale Processes in a Wetland Habitat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Ole; Jensen, Jacob Birk; Pedersen, Morten Lauge


    Numerical modelling of the hydrology in a Danish rich fen area has been conducted. By collecting various data in the field the model has been successfully calibrated and the flow paths as well as the groundwater discharge distribution have been simulated in details. The results of this work have...

  17. A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

  18. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick


    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  19. Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Bowen


    Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

  20. Neural Networks for Hydrological Modeling Tool for Operational Purposes (United States)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu


    Hydrological models are useful in many water resources applications such as flood control, irrigation and drainage, hydro power generation, water supply, erosion and sediment control, etc. Estimates of runoff are needed in many water resources planning, design development, operation and maintenance activities. Runoff is generally computed using rainfall-runoff models. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular for obtaining hydrological forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia consisting of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models, and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. Recently, soft artificial intelligence tools such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become popular for research purposes but have not been adopted in operational hydrological forecasts. There is a strong need to develop ANN models based on real catchment data and compare them with the conceptual models actually in use in real catchments. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of RRL and ANNs are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, SimHyd model has been used. Genetic Algorithm has been used as an optimizer in the RRL to calibrate the SimHyd model. Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the GA optimizer to develop the SimHyd model. The results obtained from the best configuration of the SimHyd model are presented here. Feed-forward neural network model structure trained by back-propagation training algorithm has been adopted here to develop the ANN models. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models

  1. Advancements in Hydrology and Erosion Process Understanding and Post-Fire Hydrologic and Erosion Model Development for Semi-Arid Landscapes (United States)

    Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.


    Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.

  2. Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration (United States)

    Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.


    Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  3. Probabilistic hydrological nowcasting using radar based nowcasting techniques and distributed hydrological models: application in the Mediterranean area (United States)

    Poletti, Maria Laura; Pignone, Flavio; Rebora, Nicola; Silvestro, Francesco


    The exposure of the urban areas to flash-floods is particularly significant to Mediterranean coastal cities, generally densely-inhabited. Severe rainfall events often associated to intense and organized thunderstorms produced, during the last century, flash-floods and landslides causing serious damages to urban areas and in the worst events led to human losses. The temporal scale of these events has been observed strictly linked to the size of the catchments involved: in the Mediterranean area a great number of catchments that pass through coastal cities have a small drainage area (less than 100 km2) and a corresponding hydrologic response timescale in the order of a few hours. A suitable nowcasting chain is essential for the on time forecast of this kind of events. In fact meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation at the scale of these events, small both at spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. Nowcasting models, covering the time interval of the following two hours starting from the observation try to extend the predictability limits of the forecasting models in support of real-time flood alert system operations. This work aims to present the use of hydrological models coupled with nowcasting techniques. The nowcasting model PhaSt furnishes an ensemble of equi-probable future precipitation scenarios on time horizons of 1-3 h starting from the most recent radar observations. The coupling of the nowcasting model PhaSt with the hydrological model Continuum allows to forecast the flood with a few hours in advance. In this way it is possible to generate different discharge prediction for the following hours and associated return period maps: these maps can be used as a support in the decisional process for the warning system.

  4. A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle (United States)

    Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine


    A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a

  5. Hydrologic modeling and field testing at Yucca mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoxie, D.T.


    Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated as a possible site for a mined geologic repository for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The repository is proposed to be constructed in fractured, densely welded tuff within the thick (500 to 750 meters) unsaturated zone at the site. Characterization of the site unsaturated-zone hydrogeologic system requires quantitative specification of the existing state of the system and the development of numerical hydrologic models to predict probable evolution of the hydrogeologic system over the lifetime of the repository. To support development of hydrologic models for the system, a testing program has been designed to characterize the existing state of the system, to measure hydrologic properties for the system and to identify and quantify those processes that control system dynamics. 12 refs

  6. Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model. (United States)

    Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo


    Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m 3 per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened.

  7. How runoff begins (and ends): characterizing hydrologic response at the catchment scale (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Loague, Keith


    Improved understanding of the complex dynamics associated with spatially and temporally variable runoff response is needed to better understand the hydrology component of interdisciplinary problems. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize the environmental controls on runoff generation for the range of different streamflow-generation mechanisms illustrated in the classic Dunne diagram. The comprehensive physics-based model of coupled surface-subsurface flow, InHM, is employed in a heuristic mode. InHM has been employed previously to successfully simulate the observed hydrologic response at four diverse, well-characterized catchments, which provides the foundation for this study. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested terrain; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland. The InHM boundary-value problems for these four catchments provide the corner-stones for alternative simulation scenarios designed to address the question of how runoff begins (and ends). Simulated rainfall-runoff events are used to systematically explore the impact of soil-hydraulic properties and rainfall characteristics. This approach facilitates quantitative analysis of both integrated and distributed hydrologic responses at high-spatial and temporal resolution over the wide range of environmental conditions represented by the four catchments. The results from 140 unique simulation scenarios illustrate how rainfall intensity/depth, subsurface permeability contrasts, characteristic curve shapes, and topography provide important controls on the hydrologic-response dynamics. The processes by which runoff begins (and ends) are shown, in large part, to be defined by the relative rates of rainfall, infiltration, lateral flow convergence, and storage dynamics within the variably saturated soil layers.

  8. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China (United States)

    Zhou, Guo-Yi; Wei, Xiaohua; Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Huang, Yuhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Zhang, Qianmei; Liu, Juxiu; Meng, Ze; Wang, Chunlin; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Shizhong; Tang, Xu-Li; Liu, Xiaodong


    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

  9. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying


    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Selection of hydrologic modeling approaches for climate change assessment: A comparison of model scale and structures (United States)

    Surfleet, Christopher G.; Tullos, Desirèe; Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won


    SummaryA wide variety of approaches to hydrologic (rainfall-runoff) modeling of river basins confounds our ability to select, develop, and interpret models, particularly in the evaluation of prediction uncertainty associated with climate change assessment. To inform the model selection process, we characterized and compared three structurally-distinct approaches and spatial scales of parameterization to modeling catchment hydrology: a large-scale approach (using the VIC model; 671,000 km2 area), a basin-scale approach (using the PRMS model; 29,700 km2 area), and a site-specific approach (the GSFLOW model; 4700 km2 area) forced by the same future climate estimates. For each approach, we present measures of fit to historic observations and predictions of future response, as well as estimates of model parameter uncertainty, when available. While the site-specific approach generally had the best fit to historic measurements, the performance of the model approaches varied. The site-specific approach generated the best fit at unregulated sites, the large scale approach performed best just downstream of flood control projects, and model performance varied at the farthest downstream sites where streamflow regulation is mitigated to some extent by unregulated tributaries and water diversions. These results illustrate how selection of a modeling approach and interpretation of climate change projections require (a) appropriate parameterization of the models for climate and hydrologic processes governing runoff generation in the area under study, (b) understanding and justifying the assumptions and limitations of the model, and (c) estimates of uncertainty associated with the modeling approach.

  11. Numerical modeling of the agricultural-hydrologic system in Punjab, India (United States)

    Nyblade, M.; Russo, T. A.; Zikatanov, L.; Zipp, K.


    The goal of food security for India's growing population is threatened by the decline in freshwater resources due to unsustainable water use for irrigation. The issue is acute in parts of Punjab, India, where small landholders produce a major quantity of India's food with declining groundwater resources. To further complicate this problem, other regions of the state are experiencing groundwater logging and salinization, and are reliant on canal systems for fresh water delivery. Due to the lack of water use records, groundwater consumption for this study is estimated with available data on crop yields, climate, and total canal water delivery. The hydrologic and agricultural systems are modeled using appropriate numerical methods and software. This is a state-wide hydrologic numerical model of Punjab that accounts for multiple aquifer layers, agricultural water demands, and interactions between the surface canal system and groundwater. To more accurately represent the drivers of agricultural production and therefore water use, we couple an economic crop optimization model with the hydrologic model. These tools will be used to assess and optimize crop choice scenarios based on farmer income, food production, and hydrologic system constraints. The results of these combined models can be used to further understand the hydrologic system response to government crop procurement policies and climate change, and to assess the effectiveness of possible water conservation solutions.

  12. Using nested discretization for a detailed yet computationally efficient simulation of local hydrology in a distributed hydrologic model. (United States)

    Wang, Dongdong; Liu, Yanlan; Kumar, Mukesh


    Fully distributed hydrologic models are often used to simulate hydrologic states at fine spatio-temporal resolutions. However, simulations based on these models may become computationally expensive, constraining their applications to smaller domains. This study demonstrates that a nested-discretization based modeling strategy can be used to improve the efficiency of distributed hydrologic simulations, especially for applications where fine resolution estimates of hydrologic states are of the focus only within a part of a watershed. To this end, we consider two applications where the goal is to capture the groundwater dynamics within a defined target area. Our results show that at the target locations, a nested simulation is able to competently replicate the estimates of groundwater table as obtained from the fine simulation, while yielding significant computational savings. The results highlight the potential of using nested discretization for a detailed yet computationally efficient estimation of hydrologic states in part of the model domain.

  13. Watershed memory at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory: the effect of past precipitation and storage on hydrologic response (United States)

    Fabian Nippgen; Brian L. McGlynn; Ryan E. Emanuel; James M. Vose


    The rainfall-runoff response of watersheds is affected by the legacy of past hydroclimatic conditions. We examined how variability in precipitation affected streamflow using 21 years of daily streamflow and precipitation data from five watersheds at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory in southwestern North Carolina, USA. The gauged watersheds contained both...

  14. Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben


    This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

  15. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting: Integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.


    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following

  16. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting : Integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.


    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following

  17. On the use of three hydrological models as hypotheses to investigate the behaviour of a small Mediterranean catchment (United States)

    Ruiz Pérez, Guiomar; Latron, Jérôme; Llorens, Pilar; Gallart, Francesc; Francés, Félix


    Selecting an adequate hydrological model is the first step to carry out a rainfall-runoff modelling exercise. A hydrological model is a hypothesis of catchment functioning, encompassing a description of dominant hydrological processes and predicting how these processes interact to produce the catchment's response to external forcing. Current research lines emphasize the importance of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modelling instead of only using a single model. In line with this philosophy, here different hypotheses were considered and analysed to simulate the nonlinear response of a small Mediterranean catchment and to progress in the analysis of its hydrological behaviour. In particular, three hydrological models were considered representing different potential hypotheses: two lumped models called LU3 and LU4, and one distributed model called TETIS. To determine how well each specific model performed and to assess whether a model was more adequate than another, we raised three complementary tests: one based on the analysis of residual errors series, another based on a sensitivity analysis and the last one based on using multiple evaluation criteria associated to the concept of Pareto frontier. This modelling approach, based on multiple working hypotheses, helped to improve our perceptual model of the catchment behaviour and, furthermore, could be used as a guidance to improve the performance of other environmental models.

  18. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland


    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  19. A framework for development and application of hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wagener


    Full Text Available Many existing hydrological modelling procedures do not make best use of available information, resulting in non-minimal uncertainties in model structure and parameters, and a lack of detailed information regarding model behaviour. A framework is required that balances the level of model complexity supported by the available data with the level of performance suitable for the desired application. Tools are needed that make optimal use of the information available in the data to identify model structure and parameters, and that allow a detailed analysis of model behaviour. This should result in appropriate levels of model complexity as a function of available data, hydrological system characteristics and modelling purpose. This paper introduces an analytical framework to achieve this, and tools to use within it, based on a multi-objective approach to model calibration and analysis. The utility of the framework is demonstrated with an example from the field of rainfall-runoff modelling. Keywords: hydrological modelling, multi-objective calibration, model complexity, parameter identifiability

  20. Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling : 1. Motivation and theoretical development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fenicia, F.; Kavetski, D.; Savenije, H.H.G.


    This paper introduces a flexible framework for conceptual hydrological modeling, with two related objectives: (1) generalize and systematize the currently fragmented field of conceptual models and (2) provide a robust platform for understanding and modeling hydrological systems. In contrast to

  1. Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration (United States)

    Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.


    The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

  2. Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research (United States)

    Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.


    Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common

  3. Mathematical models for interpretation of tracer data in groundwater hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The Advisory Group Meeting had the overall objective of discussing in detail the methodologies and approaches in the development of mathematical models for quantitative evaluations of tracer data in groundwater hydrology and reviewing the recent advances in this field. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the eight papers

  4. GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological modeling tools have been increasingly used worldwide in the management of water resources at watershed level. The application of these tools have been improved in recent time through the advent of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques which enhance the use of spatially ...

  5. Application of hydropedological insights in hydrological modelling of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper the output of a digital soil mapping exercise was used as the soil input into a distributed hydrological model (ACRU) for a test site within the Stevenson-Hamilton Research Supersite, Kruger National Park (South ... The outputs evaluated included both streamflow and soil water content at selected soil profiles.

  6. Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Fabre


    Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

  7. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh


    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...

  8. A simple, dynamic, hydrological model of a mesotidal salt marsh (United States)

    Salt marsh hydrology presents many difficulties from a modeling standpoint: the bi-directional flows of tidal waters, variable water densities due to mixing of fresh and salt water, significant influences from vegetation, and complex stream morphologies. Because of these difficu...

  9. Integrated landscape/hydrologic modeling tool for semiarid watersheds (United States)

    Mariano Hernandez; Scott N. Miller


    An integrated hydrologic modeling/watershed assessment tool is being developed to aid in determining the susceptibility of semiarid landscapes to natural and human-induced changes across a range of scales. Watershed processes are by definition spatially distributed and are highly variable through time, and this approach is designed to account for their spatial and...

  10. Hydrological modeling using a multi-site stochastic weather generator (United States)

    Weather data is usually required at several locations over a large watershed, especially when using distributed models for hydrological simulations. In many applications, spatially correlated weather data can be provided by a multi-site stochastic weather generator which considers the spatial correl...

  11. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of the Nyl River floodplain Part ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catchment land-use and water resource developments may threaten the ecological integrity of the Nyl River floodplain, a world-renowned conservation area. The effect of developments on the water supply regime to the floodplain can be predicted by hydrological modelling, but assessing their ecological consequences ...

  12. Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht


    International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

  13. Risk-assessment of post-wildfire hydrological response in semi-arid basins: The effects of varying rainfall representations in the KINEROS2/AGWA model (United States)

    Representation of precipitation is one of the most difficult aspects of modeling post-fire runoff and erosion and also one of the most sensitive input parameters to rainfall-runoff models. The impact of post-fire convective rainstorms, especially in semi-arid watersheds, depends on the overlap betwe...

  14. Modelling of green roofs' hydrologic performance using EPA's SWMM. (United States)

    Burszta-Adamiak, E; Mrowiec, M


    Green roofs significantly affect the increase in water retention and thus the management of rain water in urban areas. In Poland, as in many other European countries, excess rainwater resulting from snowmelt and heavy rainfall contributes to the development of local flooding in urban areas. Opportunities to reduce surface runoff and reduce flood risks are among the reasons why green roofs are more likely to be used also in this country. However, there are relatively few data on their in situ performance. In this study the storm water performance was simulated for the green roofs experimental plots using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) with Low Impact Development (LID) Controls module (version 5.0.022). The model consists of many parameters for a particular layer of green roofs but simulation results were unsatisfactory considering the hydrologic response of the green roofs. For the majority of the tested rain events, the Nash coefficient had negative values. It indicates a weak fit between observed and measured flow-rates. Therefore complexity of the LID module does not affect the increase of its accuracy. Further research at a technical scale is needed to determine the role of the green roof slope, vegetation cover and drying process during the inter-event periods.

  15. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin


    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project ( This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  16. A simple model to predict soil moisture: Bridging Event and Continuous Hydrological (BEACH) modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheikh, V.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.


    This paper introduces a simple two-layer soil water balance model developed to Bridge Event And Continuous Hydrological (BEACH) modelling. BEACH is a spatially distributed daily basis hydrological model formulated to predict the initial condition of soil moisture for event-based soil erosion and

  17. Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira


    Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

  18. Different methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall data for operational hydrology and hydrological modeling at watershed scale: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ly, S.


    Full Text Available Watershed management and hydrological modeling require data related to the very important matter of precipitation, often measured using raingages or weather stations. Hydrological models often require a preliminary spatial interpolation as part of the modeling process. The success of spatial interpolation varies according to the type of model chosen, its mode of geographical management and the resolution used. The quality of a result is determined by the quality of the continuous spatial rainfall, which ensues from the interpolation method used. The objective of this article is to review the existing methods for interpolation of rainfall data that are usually required in hydrological modeling. We review the basis for the application of certain common methods and geostatistical approaches used in interpolation of rainfall. Previous studies have highlighted the need for new research to investigate ways of improving the quality of rainfall data and ultimately, the quality of hydrological modeling.

  19. Improving the transferability of hydrological model parameters under changing conditions (United States)

    Huang, Yingchun; Bárdossy, András


    Hydrological models are widely utilized to describe catchment behaviors with observed hydro-meteorological data. Hydrological process may be considered as non-stationary under the changing climate and land use conditions. An applicable hydrological model should be able to capture the essential features of the target catchment and therefore be transferable to different conditions. At present, many model applications based on the stationary assumptions are not sufficient for predicting further changes or time variability. The aim of this study is to explore new model calibration methods in order to improve the transferability of model parameters. To cope with the instability of model parameters calibrated on catchments in non-stationary conditions, we investigate the idea of simultaneously calibration on streamflow records for the period with dissimilar climate characteristics. In additional, a weather based weighting function is implemented to adjust the calibration period to future trends. For regions with limited data and ungauged basins, the common calibration was applied by using information from similar catchments. Result shows the model performance and transfer quantity could be well improved via common calibration. This model calibration approach will be used to enhance regional water management and flood forecasting capabilities.

  20. Hydrology in a Mediterranean mountain environment, the Vallcebre Research basins (North Eastern Spain). IV. Testing hydrological and erosion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallart, F.; Latron, J.; Llorens, P.; Martinez-Carreras, N.


    Three modelling exercises were carried out in the Vallcebre research basins in order to both improve the understanding of the hydrological processes and test the adequate of some models in such Mediterranean mountain conditions. These exercises consisted of i) the analysis of the hydrological role of the agricultural terraces using the TOPMODEL topographic index, ii) the parametrisation of TOPMODEL using internal basin information, and iii) a test of the erosion model KINEROS2 for simulating badlands erosion. (Author) 13 refs.

  1. On the effects of adaptive reservoir operating rules in hydrological physically-based models (United States)

    Giudici, Federico; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo


    Recent years have seen a significant increase of the human influence on the natural systems both at the global and local scale. Accurately modeling the human component and its interaction with the natural environment is key to characterize the real system dynamics and anticipate future potential changes to the hydrological regimes. Modern distributed, physically-based hydrological models are able to describe hydrological processes with high level of detail and high spatiotemporal resolution. Yet, they lack in sophistication for the behavior component and human decisions are usually described by very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the catchment dynamics. In the case of water reservoir operators, these simplistic rules usually consist of target-level rule curves, which represent the average historical level trajectory. Whilst these rules can reasonably reproduce the average seasonal water volume shifts due to the reservoirs' operation, they cannot properly represent peculiar conditions, which influence the actual reservoirs' operation, e.g., variations in energy price or water demand, dry or wet meteorological conditions. Moreover, target-level rule curves are not suitable to explore the water system response to climate and socio economic changing contexts, because they assume a business-as-usual operation. In this work, we quantitatively assess how the inclusion of adaptive reservoirs' operating rules into physically-based hydrological models contribute to the proper representation of the hydrological regime at the catchment scale. In particular, we contrast target-level rule curves and detailed optimization-based behavioral models. We, first, perform the comparison on past observational records, showing that target-level rule curves underperform in representing the hydrological regime over multiple time scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, inter-annual). Then, we compare how future hydrological changes are affected by the two modeling

  2. Hydrological Distributed Modelling on Non Conventional Basin Partitioning (United States)

    Rulli, M.; Menduni, G.; Rosso, R.


    Mathematical modeling of environmental processes often requires strongly non linear and highly spatially and temporally variable phenomena to be described. Particularly, as far as hydrology is concerned, a detailed description of catchment topography is fundamental in order to correctly describe viz. runoff generation, debris flow mechanics and shallow landslide processes triggered by heavy rainfall. The topographic analysis is basic both at the catchment and hillslope scale. The former allows the main morphometric indexes to be determined. The latter supplies, as chief parameter, the local slope, which, on its turn, gives the gravity component available to activate mass transport processes. The development distributed hydrological models particularly requires high-resolution topographic surface descriptions and discretization tools. The most widely used Digital Elevation Model consists of square grid or raster structures (Moore et Al., 1991). An alternative to these models comes from the Triangulated Irregular Networks or TIN (Delaunay, 1934) and Contour-based models (Onstad and Brakensiek, 1968; O'Loughlin, 1986). In this work a recently proposed contour-based model (Menduni et Al. 1999, 2000), leading to non conventional catchment partitioning method, is coupled with an distributed hydrological model . The partitioning provides a variable mesh and is a natural progression of the Contour-based digital terrain models available in literature. Firstly the drainage network is derived and then the contributing areas are bounded for each channel. The system shows to be a useful tool for the geomorphologic analysis of hydrographic basins. Furthermore the contributing areas system for lower orders flow paths, gives an effective catchment surface partitioning particularly suitable for distributed hydrologic modeling and, more generally, gravity dependent processes such as sediment transport, debris flows or shallow landslides driven by heavy storms.

  3. Hydrologic Modeling and Parameter Estimation under Data Scarcity for Java Island, Indonesia (United States)

    Yanto, M.; Livneh, B.; Rajagopalan, B.; Kasprzyk, J. R.


    The Indonesian island of Java is routinely subjected to intense flooding, drought and related natural hazards, resulting in severe social and economic impacts. Although an improved understanding of the island's hydrology would help mitigate these risks, data scarcity issues make the modeling challenging. To this end, we developed a hydrological representation of Java using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, to simulate the hydrologic processes of several watersheds across the island. We measured the model performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) at monthly time step. Data scarcity and quality issues for precipitation and streamflow warranted the application of a quality control procedure to data ensure consistency among watersheds resulting in 7 watersheds. To optimize the model performance, the calibration parameters were estimated using Borg Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (Borg MOEA), which offers efficient searching of the parameter space, adaptive population sizing and local optima escape facility. The result shows that calibration performance is best (NSE ~ 0.6 - 0.9) in the eastern part of the domain and moderate (NSE ~ 0.3 - 0.5) in the western part of the island. The validation results are lower (NSE ~ 0.1 - 0.5) and (NSE ~ 0.1 - 0.4) in the east and west, respectively. We surmise that the presence of outliers and stark differences in the climate between calibration and validation periods in the western watersheds are responsible for low NSE in this region. In addition, we found that approximately 70% of total errors were contributed by less than 20% of total data. The spatial variability of model performance suggests the influence of both topographical and hydroclimatic controls on the hydrological processes. Most watersheds in eastern part perform better in wet season and vice versa for the western part. This modeling framework is one of the first attempts at comprehensively simulating the hydrology in this maritime, tropical

  4. Fen ecohydrologic trajectories in response to groundwater drawdown with edaphic, floristic, and hydrologic feedbacks (United States)

    Booth, E.; Steven, L. I.; Bart, D.


    Calcareous fens are unique and often isolated ecosystems of high conservation value worldwide because they provide habitat for many rare plant and animal species. Their identity is inextricably linked to an absolute dependence on a consistent discharge of groundwater that saturates the near surface for most of the growing season leading to the accumulation of carbon as peat or tufa and sequestration of nutrients. The stresses resulting from consistent saturation and low-nutrient availability result in high native plant diversity including very high rare species richness compared to other ecosystems. Decreases in the saturation stress by reduced groundwater inputs (e.g., from nearby pumping) can result in losses of native diversity, decreases in rare-species abundance, and increased invasion by non-native species. As such, fen ecosystems are particularly susceptible to changes in groundwater conditions including reduction in water levels due to nearby groundwater pumping. Trajectories of degradation are complex due to feedbacks between loss of soil organic carbon, changes in soil properties, and plant water use. We present a model of an archetype fen that couples a hydrological niche model with a variably-saturated groundwater flow model to predict changes in vegetation composition in response to different groundwater drawdown scenarios (step change, declining trend, and periodic drawdown during dry periods). The model also includes feedbacks among vegetation composition, plant water use, and soil properties. The hydrological niche models (using surface soil moisture as predictor) and relationships between vegetation composition, plant water use (via stomatal conductance and leaf-area index), and soil hydraulic properties (van Genuchten parameters) were determined based on data collected from six fens in Wisconsin under various states of degradation. Results reveal a complex response to drawdown and provide insight into other ecosystems with linkages between the

  5. Use of remotely sensed precipitation and leaf area index in a distributed hydrological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens; Dybkjær, Gorm Ibsen; Jensen, Karsten Høgh


    distributed hydrological modelling, remote sensing, precipitation, leaf area index, NOAA AVHRR, cold cloud duration......distributed hydrological modelling, remote sensing, precipitation, leaf area index, NOAA AVHRR, cold cloud duration...

  6. Perspectives in using a remotely sensed dryness index in distributed hydrological models at river basin scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J.; Sandholt, Inge; Jensen, Karsten Høgh


    Remote Sensing, hydrological modelling, dryness index, surface temperature, vegetation index, Africa, Senegal, soil moisture......Remote Sensing, hydrological modelling, dryness index, surface temperature, vegetation index, Africa, Senegal, soil moisture...

  7. Gravitational and capillary soil moisture dynamics for distributed hydrologic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Castillo


    Full Text Available Distributed and continuous catchment models are used to simulate water and energy balance and fluxes across varied topography and landscape. The landscape is discretized into computational plan elements at resolutions of 101–103 m, and soil moisture is the hydrologic state variable. At the local scale, the vertical soil moisture dynamics link hydrologic fluxes and provide continuity in time. In catchment models these local-scale processes are modeled using 1-D soil columns that are discretized into layers that are usually 10−3–10−1 m in thickness. This creates a mismatch between the horizontal and vertical scales. For applications across large domains and in ensemble mode, this treatment can be a limiting factor due to its high computational demand. This study compares continuous multi-year simulations of soil moisture at the local scale using (i a 1-pixel version of a distributed catchment hydrologic model and (ii a benchmark detailed soil water physics solver. The distributed model uses a single soil layer with a novel dual-pore structure and employs linear parameterization of infiltration and some other fluxes. The detailed solver uses multiple soil layers and employs nonlinear soil physics relations to model flow in unsaturated soils. Using two sites with different climates (semiarid and sub-humid, it is shown that the efficient parameterization in the distributed model captures the essential dynamics of the detailed solver.

  8. Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through GRACE (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Attinger, S.; Samaniego, L. E.


    Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains.

  9. On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.


    Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

  10. Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis


    Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52,

  11. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage


    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindb?ck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A


    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and exa...

  12. On modeling complex interplay in small-scale self-organized socio-hydrological systems (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Rachata


    Successful and sustainable socio-hydrological systems, as in any coupled natural human-systems, require effective governance, which depends on the existence of proper infrastructure (both hard and soft). Recent work has addressed systems in which resource users and the organization responsible for maintaining the infrastructure are separate entities. However, many socio-hydrological systems, especially in developing countries, are small and without such formal division of labor; rather, such division of labor typically arises from self-organization within the population. In this work, we modify and mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework by developing a system of differential equations that capture the strategic behavior within such a self-organized population, its interplay with infrastructure characteristics and hydrological dynamics, and feedbacks between these elements. The model yields a number of insightful conditions related to long-term sustainability and collapse of the socio-hydrological system in the form of relationships between biophysical and social factors. These relationships encapsulate nonlinear interactions of these factors. The modeling framework is grounded in a solid conceptual foundation upon which additional modifications and realism can be built for potential reconciliation between socio-hydrology with other related fields and further applications.

  13. Integrating hydrologic modeling web services with online data sharing to prepare, store, and execute models in hydrology (United States)

    Gan, T.; Tarboton, D. G.; Dash, P. K.; Gichamo, T.; Horsburgh, J. S.


    Web based apps, web services and online data and model sharing technology are becoming increasingly available to support research. This promises benefits in terms of collaboration, platform independence, transparency and reproducibility of modeling workflows and results. However, challenges still exist in real application of these capabilities and the programming skills researchers need to use them. In this research we combined hydrologic modeling web services with an online data and model sharing system to develop functionality to support reproducible hydrologic modeling work. We used HydroDS, a system that provides web services for input data preparation and execution of a snowmelt model, and HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. To make the web services easy to use, we developed a HydroShare app (based on the Tethys platform) to serve as a browser based user interface for HydroDS. In this integration, HydroDS receives web requests from the HydroShare app to process the data and execute the model. HydroShare supports storage and sharing of the results generated by HydroDS web services. The snowmelt modeling example served as a use case to test and evaluate this approach. We show that, after the integration, users can prepare model inputs or execute the model through the web user interface of the HydroShare app without writing program code. The model input/output files and metadata describing the model instance are stored and shared in HydroShare. These files include a Python script that is automatically generated by the HydroShare app to document and reproduce the model input preparation workflow. Once stored in HydroShare, inputs and results can be shared with other users, or published so that other users can directly discover, repeat or modify the modeling work. This approach provides a collaborative environment that integrates hydrologic web services with a data and model sharing

  14. Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.; Heling, R.; Zheleznyak, M.


    This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems. (authors)

  15. Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model (United States)

    The program models rainfall, runoff, infiltration, and other water pathways to estimate how much water builds up above each landfill liner. It can incorporate data on vegetation, soil types, geosynthetic materials, initial moisture conditions, slopes, etc.

  16. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.


    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  17. The Chena River Watershed Hydrology Model (United States)


    during the season as the albedo and density of the snow change. During rainy condi- tions, snow melts at a faster rate because heat from the liquid...values for evapotranspiration and the air temperature lapse rate were estimated using the available data. A temperature index snow model was developed...and calibrated with existing snow water equivalent data. The HEC- HMS model was calibrated based on 3 years of continuous simulation between 1 April

  18. Parameterization and Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT model in Hydrological Simulation of Chaohe River Basin (United States)

    Jie, M.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B. B.


    As a typical distributed hydrological model, the SWAT model also has a challenge in calibrating parameters and analysis their uncertainty. This paper chooses the Chaohe River Basin China as the study area, through the establishment of the SWAT model, loading the DEM data of the Chaohe river basin, the watershed is automatically divided into several sub-basins. Analyzing the land use, soil and slope which are on the basis of the sub-basins and calculating the hydrological response unit (HRU) of the study area, after running SWAT model, the runoff simulation values in the watershed are obtained. On this basis, using weather data, known daily runoff of three hydrological stations, combined with the SWAT-CUP automatic program and the manual adjustment method are used to analyze the multi-site calibration of the model parameters. Furthermore, the GLUE algorithm is used to analyze the parameters uncertainty of the SWAT model. Through the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty study of SWAT, the results indicate that the parameterization of the hydrological characteristics of the Chaohe river is successful and feasible which can be used to simulate the Chaohe river basin.

  19. Hydrological Modelling and Parameter Identification for Green Roof (United States)

    Lo, W.; Tung, C.


    Green roofs, a multilayered system covered by plants, can be used to replace traditional concrete roofs as one of various measures to mitigate the increasing stormwater runoff in the urban environment. Moreover, facing the high uncertainty of the climate change, the present engineering method as adaptation may be regarded as improper measurements; reversely, green roofs are unregretful and flexible, and thus are rather important and suitable. The related technology has been developed for several years and the researches evaluating the stormwater reduction performance of green roofs are ongoing prosperously. Many European counties, cities in the U.S., and other local governments incorporate green roof into the stormwater control policy. Therefore, in terms of stormwater management, it is necessary to develop a robust hydrologic model to quantify the efficacy of green roofs over different types of designs and environmental conditions. In this research, a physical based hydrologic model is proposed to simulate water flowing process in the green roof system. In particular, the model adopts the concept of water balance, bringing a relatively simple and intuitive idea. Also, the research compares the two methods in the surface water balance calculation. One is based on Green-Ampt equation, and the other is under the SCS curve number calculation. A green roof experiment is designed to collect weather data and water discharge. Then, the proposed model is verified with these observed data; furthermore, the parameters using in the model are calibrated to find appropriate values in the green roof hydrologic simulation. This research proposes a simple physical based hydrologic model and the measures to determine parameters for the model.

  20. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling (United States)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.


    Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding of environmental dynamics at the catchment scale, which can be attributed to difficulties in measuring and representing the heterogeneity encountered in natural systems. This presentation advocates using the method of multiple working hypotheses for systematic and stringent testing of model alternatives in hydrology. We discuss how the multiple hypothesis approach provides the flexibility to formulate alternative representations (hypotheses) describing both individual processes and the overall system. When combined with incisive diagnostics to scrutinize multiple model representations against observed data, this provides hydrologists with a powerful and systematic approach for model development and improvement. Multiple hypothesis frameworks also support a broader coverage of the model hypothesis space and hence improve the quantification of predictive uncertainty arising from system and component non-identifiabilities. As part of discussing the advantages and limitations of multiple hypothesis frameworks, we critically review major contemporary challenges in hydrological hypothesis-testing, including exploiting different types of data to investigate the fidelity of alternative process representations, accounting for model structure ambiguities arising from major uncertainties in environmental data, quantifying regional differences in dominant hydrological processes, and the grander challenge of understanding the self-organization and optimality principles that may functionally explain and describe the heterogeneities evident in most environmental systems. We assess recent progress in these research directions, and how new advances are possible using multiple hypothesis

  1. Olkiluoto surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.


    The modeling approaches carried out with the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD) include palaeohydrological evolution of the Olkiluoto Island, examination of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone, simulations related to infiltration experiment, prediction of the influence of ONKALO on hydraulic head in shallow and deep bedrock and optimisation of the shallow monitoring network. A so called short-term prediction system was developed for continuous updating of the estimated drawdowns caused by ONKALO. The palaeohydrological simulations were computed for a period starting from the time when the highest hills on Olkiluoto Island rose above sea level around 2 500 years ago. The input data needed in the model were produced by the UNTAMO-toolbox. The groundwater flow evolution is primarily driven by the postglacial land uplift and the uncertainty in the land uplift model is the biggest single factor that influences the accuracy of the results. The consistency of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) was studied during 2010. The comparison carried out during 2010 showed that pressure head profiles computed with the SHYD model and deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA are in good agreement with each other in the uppermost 100 m of the bedrock. This implies that flux profiles computed with the two approaches are close to each other and hydraulic heads computed at level z=0 m with the SHYD can be used as head boundary condition in the deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA. The surface hydrological model was used to analyse the results of the infiltration experiment. Increase in bedrock recharge inside WCA explains around 60-63 % from the amount of water pumped from OL-KR14 and 37-40 % of the water pumped from OL-KR14 flows towards pumping section via the hydrogeological zones. Pumping from OL-KR14 has only a minor effect on heads and fluxes in zones HZ19A and HZ19C compared to responses caused by leakages into

  2. Evolution of Modeling Strategies for Operational Hydrologic Models with Changing Timescales (United States)

    Sivapalan, M.


    Hydrologic forecasting models are used at a range of timescales: at short timescales for flood forecasting, at intermediate timescales for seasonal flow forecasting, and long timescales for decadal to century scale for global change predictions. Often models are developed for each of these purposes rather independently, sometimes in an ad hoc manner, leading to inefficiencies and leaving no room for flexibility and continuous refinement. In this paper we present a consistent framework for the development of distributed models at each of these timescales that enable a seamless transition as we transition from small to large timescales and accommodate the cascading of variability across the full range of timescales as well as, where needed, the interactions between water flow processes and other land-forming and life sustaining processes. This framework accommodates a synthesis of both bottom-up and top-down approaches to modeling that enable inclusion of laws of mass, momentum and energy balances, as well as the ability to embrace the learning from patterns in observed hydrologic responses. The proposed approach is a synthesis of the REW approach to distributed modeling proposed by Reggiani et al. (1998, 1999), and the data-based top-down approach to modeling reviewed by Sivapalan et al. (2003). We will articulate these ideas with respect to model development efforts in Australia for short, intermediate and long term streamflow forecasting at regional and continental scales as part of the WIRADA project.

  3. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna


    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  4. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.


    Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

  5. Determining the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Variability on Florida's Everglades Through the Use of a Finite Volume Hydrologic Model (United States)

    Senarath, S. U.; Novoa, R. J.; Niedzialek, J. M.; Zheng, F.


    A good understanding of climate variability and its impacts on the regional water budget are crucial for the restoration of Florida's Everglades. This is investigated by varying the two most sensitive climatic data sets, namely rainfall and evapotranspiration of a regional-scale hydrologic model. A 36-year long record, spanning from 1965 to 2000 is used in these assessments. Although not comprehensive, these data sets include several seasons with extremely high and low rainfall and evapotranspiration. The Everglades National Park, the Big Cypress National Preserve, and the Water Conservation Areas 3A and 3B are included in the study area. These watersheds jointly encompass an area of 10,158 square kilometers, and are home to many endangered and threatened species of fauna and flora. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) is used in this study to evaluate and quantify the hydrologic responses caused due to climate variability. RSM is a finite-volume, regional-scale, distributed, continuous hydrologic model with fully coupled groundwater, canal and overland flow components. This model uses a variable triangular mesh that conforms to levees, canals and sub-basin boundaries. RSM can adequately simulate the low-relief topography, and high water tables, saturated hydraulic conductivities and surface roughnesses that exist in Florida's Everglades. The model uses the diffusive wave approximation of Saint-Venant's equation to simulate canal and overland flows. The Southern Everglades implementation of the RSM (hereafter, Southern Everglades Model or SEM) is calibrated and verified using stage data from 1988 to 1995, and 1996 to 2000, respectively. An irregular triangular mesh with 52,817 cells and a one-day time step are used in this implementation. For all simulations and assessments the model boundary conditions are obtained from the South Florida Water Management Model developed by the SFWMD. Two types of

  6. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage (United States)

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindbäck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A


    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and examine whether substantial, efficient subglacial channels can form during or following lake drainage events and their effect on the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system. We force the model with field data from a lake drainage site, 70 km from the terminus of Russell Glacier in West Greenland. The model outputs suggest that efficient subglacial channels do not readily form in the vicinity of the lake during rapid drainage and instead water is evacuated primarily by a transient turbulent sheet and the distributed system. Following lake drainage, channels grow but are not large enough to reduce the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system, unless preexisting channels are present throughout the domain. Our results have implications for the analysis of subglacial hydrological systems in regions where rapid lake drainage provides the primary mechanism for surface-to-bed connections. Key Points Model for subglacial hydrological analysis of rapid lake drainage events Limited subglacial channel growth during and following rapid lake drainage Persistence of distributed drainage in inland areas where channel growth is limited PMID:26640746

  7. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage. (United States)

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindbäck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A


    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and examine whether substantial, efficient subglacial channels can form during or following lake drainage events and their effect on the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system. We force the model with field data from a lake drainage site, 70 km from the terminus of Russell Glacier in West Greenland. The model outputs suggest that efficient subglacial channels do not readily form in the vicinity of the lake during rapid drainage and instead water is evacuated primarily by a transient turbulent sheet and the distributed system. Following lake drainage, channels grow but are not large enough to reduce the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system, unless preexisting channels are present throughout the domain. Our results have implications for the analysis of subglacial hydrological systems in regions where rapid lake drainage provides the primary mechanism for surface-to-bed connections. Model for subglacial hydrological analysis of rapid lake drainage eventsLimited subglacial channel growth during and following rapid lake drainagePersistence of distributed drainage in inland areas where channel growth is limited.

  8. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin


    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  9. Assessment of biophysical and hydrological variables in semiarid West Africa based on MSG data and numerical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Schultz; Sandholt, Inge; Rasmussen, Kjeld


    Remote Sensing, Senegal, SEVIRI, MSG (Metrosat Second Generation), vegetation, hydrological model......Remote Sensing, Senegal, SEVIRI, MSG (Metrosat Second Generation), vegetation, hydrological model...

  10. Process verification of a hydrological model using a temporal parameter sensitivity analysis


    M. Pfannerstill; B. Guse; D. Reusser; N. Fohrer


    To ensure reliable results of hydrological models, it is essential that the models reproduce the hydrological process dynamics adequately. Information about simulated process dynamics is provided by looking at the temporal sensitivities of the corresponding model parameters. For this, the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity are analysed to identify the simulated hydrological processes. Based on these analyses it can be verified if the simulated hydrological processes ...

  11. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  12. Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow (United States)

    Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.


    Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference

  13. Precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty as input into hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kobold


    Full Text Available Torrential streams and fast runoff are characteristic of most Slovenian rivers and extensive damage is caused almost every year by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia. Rainfall-runoff models which are tools for runoff calculation can be used for flood forecasting. In Slovenia, the lag time between rainfall and runoff is only a few hours and on-line data are used only for now-casting. Predicted precipitation is necessary in flood forecasting some days ahead. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model gives general forecasts several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with the ALADIN/SI model are available for two days ahead. Combining the weather forecasts with the information on catchment conditions and a hydrological forecasting model can give advance warning of potential flooding notwithstanding a certain degree of uncertainty in using precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. Analysis of the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the rainfall error has shown that the deviation in runoff is much larger than the rainfall deviation. Therefore, verification of predicted precipitation for large precipitation events was performed with the ECMWF model. Measured precipitation data were interpolated on a regular grid and compared with the results from the ECMWF model. The deviation in predicted precipitation from interpolated measurements is shown with the model bias resulting from the inability of the model to predict the precipitation correctly and a bias for horizontal resolution of the model and natural variability of precipitation.

  14. Geoinformatics for assessing the morphometric control on hydrological response at watershed scale in the Upper Indus Basin (United States)

    Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Bhat, Shakeel Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan


    Five watersheds (W1, W2, W3, W4 and W5) in the upper Indus basin were chosen for detailed studies to understand the influences of geomorphology, drainage basin morphometry and vegetation patterns on hydrology. From the morphometric analysis, it is evident that the hydrologic response of these watersheds changes significantly in response to spatial variations in morphometric parameters. Results indicate that W1, W2 and W5 contribute higher surface runoff than W3 and W4. Further, the topographic and land cover analyses reveal that W1, W2 and W5 generate quick runoff that may result in flooding over prolonged rainy spells. A physically based semi-distributed hydrologic model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT) was used for simulating the hydrological response from the watersheds. As per the simulations, W5 watershed produces the highest runoff of 11.17 mm/year followed by W1 (7.9 mm/year), W2 (6.6 mm/year), W4 (5.33 mm/year) and W3 (4.29 mm/year). Thus, W5 is particularly more vulnerable to flooding during high rain spells followed by W1, W2, W4 and W3, respectively. Synthetic unit hydrograph analysis of the five watersheds also reveals high peak discharge for W5. The simulated results on the hydrological response from the five watersheds are quite in agreement with those of the morphometric, topographic, vegetation and unit hydrograph analyses. Therefore, it is quite evident that these factors have significant impact on the hydrological response from the watersheds and can be used to predict flood peaks, sediment yield and water discharge from the ungauged watersheds.

  15. Development of a "Hydrologic Equivalent Wetland" Concept for Modeling Cumulative Effects of Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology (United States)

    Wang, X.; Liu, T.; Li, R.; Yang, X.; Duan, L.; Luo, Y.


    Wetlands are one of the most important watershed microtopographic features that affect, in combination rather than individually, hydrologic processes (e.g., routing) and the fate and transport of constituents (e.g., sediment and nutrients). Efforts to conserve existing wetlands and/or to restore lost wetlands require that watershed-level effects of wetlands on water quantity and water quality be quantified. Because monitoring approaches are usually cost or logistics prohibitive at watershed scale, distributed watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be a best resort if wetlands can be appropriately represented in the models. However, the exact method that should be used to incorporate wetlands into hydrologic models is the subject of much disagreement in the literature. In addition, there is a serious lack of information about how to model wetland conservation-restoration effects using such kind of integrated modeling approach. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a "hydrologic equivalent wetland" (HEW) concept; and 2) demonstrate how to use the HEW concept in SWAT to assess effects of wetland restoration within the Broughton's Creek watershed located in southwestern Manitoba of Canada, and of wetland conservation within the upper portion of the Otter Tail River watershed located in northwestern Minnesota of the United States. The HEWs were defined in terms of six calibrated parameters: the fraction of the subbasin area that drains into wetlands (WET_FR), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their normal water level (WET_NVOL), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their maximum water level (WET_MXVOL), the longest tributary channel length in the subbasin (CH_L1), Manning's n value for the tributary channels (CH_N1), and Manning's n value for the main channel (CH_N2). The results indicated that the HEW concept allows the nonlinear functional relations between watershed processes

  16. A Socio-hydrological Flood Model for the Elbe (United States)

    Barendrecht, M.; Viglione, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.; Bloeschl, G.


    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent such phenomena and the feedbacks leading to them. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management when they are applied to real world case studies. They can help develop hypotheses about the phenomena that have been observed in the case study of interest, by describing the interactions between the social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, that play a role in the system. We discuss the case of Dresden where the 2002 flood, which was preceded by a period without floods but was less severe, resulted in a higher damage than the 2013 flood, which was preceded by the 2002 flood and a couple of less severe floods. The lower damage in 2013 may be explained by the fact that society has become aware of the flood risk and has adapted to it. Developing and applying a socio-hydrological flood model to the case of Dresden can help discover whether it is possible that the lower damage is caused by an adaptation effect, or if there are other feedbacks that can explain the observed phenomenon.

  17. Modeling the effect of land use change on hydrology of a forested watershed in coastal South Carolina. (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li


    Since hydrology is one of main factors controlling wetland functions, hydrologic models are useful for evaluating the effects of land use change on we land ecosystems. We evaluated two process-based hydrologic models with...

  18. Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model (United States)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja


    Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

  19. Hydrological responses to climate change in Mt. Elgon watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Musau


    New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Comparison between the simulated baseline and future streamflow shows that in the Koitobos and Kimilili watersheds, August to December streamflow is likely to be highly altered. In the Kuywa watershed, March to June flows is likely to change considerably due to climate change. Major streamflow changes are likely in March to June and August to November in the Rongai watershed. Projected changes differed between the four watersheds despite their proximity, indicating different sensitivities to climate change and uncertainty about the potential hydrological impacts of climate change in the area.

  20. On the non-stationarity of hydrological response in anthropogenically unaffected catchments: an Australian perspective (United States)

    Ajami, Hoori; Sharma, Ashish; Band, Lawrence E.; Evans, Jason P.; Tuteja, Narendra K.; Amirthanathan, Gnanathikkam E.; Bari, Mohammed A.


    Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to impact the terrestrial hydrologic cycle through changes in radiative forcings and plant physiological and structural responses. Here, we investigate the nature and frequency of non-stationary hydrological response as evidenced through water balance studies over 166 anthropogenically unaffected catchments in Australia. Non-stationarity of hydrologic response is investigated through analysis of long-term trend in annual runoff ratio (1984-2005). Results indicate that a significant trend (p use precipitation-productivity relationships as the first-order control for ecohydrologic catchment classification. A total of 12 out of 20 catchments present a positive precipitation-productivity relationship possibly enhanced by CO2 fertilization effect. In the remaining catchments, biogeochemical and edaphic factors may be impacting productivity. Results suggest vegetation dynamics should be considered in exploring causes of non-stationary hydrologic response.

  1. Coupling socio-economic factors and eco-hydrological processes using a cascade-modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odongo, V.O.; Mulatu, D.W.; Muthoni, F.K.; Oel, van P.R.; Meins, F.M.; Tol, van der C.; Skidmore, A.K.; Groen, T.A.; Becht, R.; Onyando, J.O.; Veen, van der A.


    Most hydrological studies do not account for the socio-economic influences on eco-hydrological processes. However, socio-economic developments often change the water balance substantially and are highly relevant in understanding changes in hydrological responses. In this study a multi-disciplinary

  2. Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.


    factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

  3. Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures


    Velázquez, J. A.; Anctil, F.; Ramos, M. H.; Perrin, C.


    An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting system based on a meteorological ensemble prediction system (M-EPS) coupled with a hydrological model searches to capture the uncertainties associated with the meteorological prediction to better predict river flows. However, the structure of the hydrological model is also an important source of uncertainty that has to be taken into account. This study aims at evaluating and comparing the performance and the reliability of dif...

  4. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji


    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  5. Creating a conceptual hydrological soil response map for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The soil water regime is a defining ecosystem service, directly influencing vegetation and animal distribution. Therefore the understanding of hydrological processes is a vital building block in managing natural ecosystems. Soils contain morphological indicators of the water flow paths and rates in the soil profile, which are ...

  6. Sensitivity of drainage morphometry based hydrological response (GIUH) of a river basin to the spatial resolution of DEM data (United States)

    Sahoo, Ramendra; Jain, Vikrant


    Drainage network pattern and its associated morphometric ratios are some of the important plan form attributes of a drainage basin. Extraction of these attributes for any basin is usually done by spatial analysis of the elevation data of that basin. These planform attributes are further used as input data for studying numerous process-response interactions inside the physical premise of the basin. One of the important uses of the morphometric ratios is its usage in the derivation of hydrologic response of a basin using GIUH concept. Hence, accuracy of the basin hydrological response to any storm event depends upon the accuracy with which, the morphometric ratios can be estimated. This in turn, is affected by the spatial resolution of the source data, i.e. the digital elevation model (DEM). We have estimated the sensitivity of the morphometric ratios and the GIUH derived hydrograph parameters, to the resolution of source data using a 30 meter and a 90 meter DEM. The analysis has been carried out for 50 drainage basins in a mountainous catchment. A simple and comprehensive algorithm has been developed for estimation of the morphometric indices from a stream network. We have calculated all the morphometric parameters and the hydrograph parameters for each of these basins extracted from two different DEMs, with different spatial resolutions. Paired t-test and Sign test were used for the comparison. Our results didn't show any statistically significant difference among any of the parameters calculated from the two source data. Along with the comparative study, a first-hand empirical analysis about the frequency distribution of the morphometric and hydrologic response parameters has also been communicated. Further, a comparison with other hydrological models suggests that plan form morphometry based GIUH model is more consistent with resolution variability in comparison to topographic based hydrological model.

  7. Improving hydrologic disaster forecasting and response for transportation by assimilating and fusing NASA and other data sets : final report. (United States)


    In this 3-year project, the research team developed the Hydrologic Disaster Forecast and Response (HDFR) system, a set of integrated software tools for end users that streamlines hydrologic prediction workflows involving automated retrieval of hetero...

  8. Progressive refining of spatial and temporal resolutions in a hydrological model: how far should we go? (United States)

    de Lavenne, Alban; Ficchi, Andrea; Goullet, Julien


    Choosing a modelling resolution for an hydrological model is an important preliminary question. However, it is quite often arbitrary determined by the modeller experience according to the objective, the model capacity or the available measurements. The hydrological literature provides numerous studies which focus on the effect of refining either spatial resolution or (sometimes) temporal resolution in order to better catch hydrological response. In this study, we investigate the impact of changing simultaneously both resolutions on hydrological model performance. The idea is that these resolutions are linked and should be considered together. Thus, we look for the combination of spatial and temporal resolutions fitting at best each catchment behaviour and type of rainfall events. A large data set of 240 catchments scattered all around France is used, and in particular, we benefit from a high-resolution precipitation database (ANTILOPE, Météo-France) that describes hourly precipitation at 1 km2 resolution. Data were aggregated at different time steps (1h, 3h, 6h, 12h and 24h). Streamflow simulations are performed at these different time steps using the GR5 model in its lumped and semi-distributed version (GRSD, de Lavenne et al. (2016)), with a mesh grid of 500, 250, 100 and 50 km2. Ten different indices are used to describe spatio-temporal characteristics of rainfall events, in order to analyse in which contexts refined resolutions are needed to improve the performance of the model. These indices characterise the spatial variability, localisation, movement, intensity and temporal variability of rainfall events. In addition to some indices already reported in the hydrological literature, we propose some new indices like an indice usually applied in economics. This analysis at different time steps, events and catchments demonstrates the limits for some of them and allows to propose some corrections (Goullet J., 2016). Model performances are shown to be

  9. Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty: STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY DIAGNOSTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moges, Edom [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Demissie, Yonas [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA


    In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. The results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

  10. Assessment and Reduction of Model Parametric Uncertainties: A Case Study with A Distributed Hydrological Model (United States)

    Gan, Y.; Liang, X. Z.; Duan, Q.; Xu, J.; Zhao, P.; Hong, Y.


    The uncertainties associated with the parameters of a hydrological model need to be quantified and reduced for it to be useful for operational hydrological forecasting and decision support. An uncertainty quantification framework is presented to facilitate practical assessment and reduction of model parametric uncertainties. A case study, using the distributed hydrological model CREST for daily streamflow simulation during the period 2008-2010 over ten watershed, was used to demonstrate the performance of this new framework. Model behaviors across watersheds were analyzed by a two-stage stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure, using LH-OAT method for screening out insensitive parameters, followed by MARS-based Sobol' sensitivity indices for quantifying each parameter's contribution to the response variance due to its first-order and higher-order effects. Pareto optimal sets of the influential parameters were then found by the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization procedure, using MARS model for approximating the parameter-response relationship and SCE-UA algorithm for searching the optimal parameter sets of the adaptively updated surrogate model. The final optimal parameter sets were validated against the daily streamflow simulation of the same watersheds during the period 2011-2012. The stepwise sensitivity analysis procedure efficiently reduced the number of parameters that need to be calibrated from twelve to seven, which helps to limit the dimensionality of calibration problem and serves to enhance the efficiency of parameter calibration. The adaptive MARS-based multi-objective calibration exercise provided satisfactory solutions to the reproduction of the observed streamflow for all watersheds. The final optimal solutions showed significant improvement when compared to the default solutions, with about 65-90% reduction in 1-NSE and 60-95% reduction in |RB|. The validation exercise indicated a large improvement in model performance with about 40

  11. Hydrological modelling with TOPMODEL of Chingaza páramo, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eydith Girleza Gil Morales


    Full Text Available Páramo ecosystems are located on the upper parts of the tropical mountains, below the snow line areas or in isolated areas where no glacier ecosystems occur. These ecosystems are considered important for their biodiversity, but mainly because they are permanent source of water for populations located at the upper and middle parts of the Andes. Recent studies indicate that ecosystems located at high altitudes, are more vulnerable to climate change and to changes in land use, which threatens the ecosystem services derived from them. There are very few studies in these ecosystems, within which, studies on the hydrological functioning are even scarcer, which seems to be related to their position in the top of the mountains and difficulties associated with the access to them. This implies that there is a need to create tools that allow us to study these ecosystems, overcoming the current difficulties. Hydrological TOPMODEL is used to investigate the hydrological functioning of the páramo of Chingaza, through a case study in la Chucua basin. For this, we calibrate and validate the model using two data sets of climate and the hydrology of the basin (climate and discharge from 2008 and 2009, respectively. Through the calibration procedure we obtain a high efficiency value of 0.76 model (coefficient Nash - Sutcliffe, which adequately represents the hydrological behavior of the páramo. Simulations with better adjustment between measured and predicted values of discharge, have low values of surface infiltration excess runoff, indicating high water storage capacity on the soils. This agrees with the predominance of subsurface flow in studied ecosystem, given the special characteristics of soils. Results also show the large influence of factors represented in the model (topography and soils, on water basin response to rainfall events. This is significant evidence of exceptional hydrological behavior of the páramos, mainly related to the presence of soil

  12. Modeling wildfire impact on hydrologic processes using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (United States)

    Logan, R. J.; Hogue, T. S.; Hay, L.


    As large magnitude wildfires persist across the western United States, understanding their impact on hydrologic behavior and predicting regional streamflow response is increasingly important. Sediment and debris flows, as well as elevated flood levels in burned watersheds are often addressed, but wildfires also alter the timing and overall volume of both short and long-term runoff, making the prediction of post-fire streamflow critical for water resources management. Watershed models are a powerful tool for both representing wildfire runoff response and discerning the processes that induce that response. In the current study, selected wildfire-impacted basins across the western United States are modeled using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in order to develop a generalized approach. This distributed-parameter, physical process based watershed model allows us to target specific processes, while still having the flexibility to account for uncertainty and complex physical interactions that are not explicitly represented in model parameterization. Two change detection modeling approaches are considered. First, models calibrated using pre-fire data are applied to the post-fire period and residuals between simulated and observed flow are examined to quantify the response in each specific watershed. Here an analysis of the model's ability to detect long-term response is also presented. Second, the post-fire conditions are modeled by adjusting appropriate parameters, and the parameter differences are used to guide process learning. In this latter method, parameters are specifically tailored to represent processes affected by wildfire, and scenarios with different parameter interactions are statistically compared. The results of these analyses are synthesized to provide a framework for predicting wildfire runoff response using PRMS, which will ultimately empower water resource decisions.

  13. Modelling blanket peatland hydrology and Holocene peatland development in north-eastern Scotland. (United States)

    Swinnen, Ward; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils


    -Holocene increases in temperature and precipitation, rather than by an alteration of the hillslope hydrology due to a declining forest cover. The model allows to study the sensitivity of blanket peatlands to changes in environmental factors such as land cover, temperature and precipitation, providing a new tool to study the response of blanket peatlands to the future environmental changes under different climate change scenarios.

  14. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri


    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  15. Genetic Algorithm Optimization of Artificial Neural Networks for Hydrological Modelling (United States)

    Abrahart, R. J.


    This paper will consider the case for genetic algorithm optimization in the development of an artificial neural network model. It will provide a methodological evaluation of reported investigations with respect to hydrological forecasting and prediction. The intention in such operations is to develop a superior modelling solution that will be: \\begin{itemize} more accurate in terms of output precision and model estimation skill; more tractable in terms of personal requirements and end-user control; and/or more robust in terms of conceptual and mechanical power with respect to adverse conditions. The genetic algorithm optimization toolbox could be used to perform a number of specific roles or purposes and it is the harmonious and supportive relationship between neural networks and genetic algorithms that will be highlighted and assessed. There are several neural network mechanisms and procedures that could be enhanced and potential benefits are possible at different stages in the design and construction of an operational hydrological model e.g. division of inputs; identification of structure; initialization of connection weights; calibration of connection weights; breeding operations between successful models; and output fusion associated with the development of ensemble solutions. Each set of opportunities will be discussed and evaluated. Two strategic questions will also be considered: [i] should optimization be conducted as a set of small individual procedures or as one large holistic operation; [ii] what specific function or set of weighted vectors should be optimized in a complex software product e.g. timings, volumes, or quintessential hydrological attributes related to the 'problem situation' - that might require the development flood forecasting, drought estimation, or record infilling applications. The paper will conclude with a consideration of hydrological forecasting solutions developed on the combined methodologies of co-operative co-evolution and

  16. Applying sequential Monte Carlo methods into a distributed hydrologic model: lagged particle filtering approach with regularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Noh


    Full Text Available Data assimilation techniques have received growing attention due to their capability to improve prediction. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC methods, known as "particle filters", are a Bayesian learning process that has the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. In this paper, we propose an improved particle filtering approach to consider different response times of internal state variables in a hydrologic model. The proposed method adopts a lagged filtering approach to aggregate model response until the uncertainty of each hydrologic process is propagated. The regularization with an additional move step based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods is also implemented to preserve sample diversity under the lagged filtering approach. A distributed hydrologic model, water and energy transfer processes (WEP, is implemented for the sequential data assimilation through the updating of state variables. The lagged regularized particle filter (LRPF and the sequential importance resampling (SIR particle filter are implemented for hindcasting of streamflow at the Katsura catchment, Japan. Control state variables for filtering are soil moisture content and overland flow. Streamflow measurements are used for data assimilation. LRPF shows consistent forecasts regardless of the process noise assumption, while SIR has different values of optimal process noise and shows sensitive variation of confidential intervals, depending on the process noise. Improvement of LRPF forecasts compared to SIR is particularly found for rapidly varied high flows due to preservation of sample diversity from the kernel, even if particle impoverishment takes place.

  17. Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew J.


    The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds.

  18. Exploring the Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Hydrological Response of Small Czech Watersheds (United States)

    Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Ludek; Weyskrabova, Lenka; Müller, Miloslav; Kozant, Petr


    The short-term rainfall temporal distribution is known to have a significant effect on the small watersheds' hydrological response. In Czech Republic there are limited publicly available data on rainfall patterns of short-term precipitation. On one side there are catalogues of very short-term synthetic rainfalls used in urban drainage planning and on the other side hourly distribution of daily totals of rainfalls with long return period for larger catchments analyses. This contribution introduces the preliminary outcomes of a running three years' project, which should bridge this gap and provide such data and methodology to the community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. Six generalized 6-hours hyetographs with 1 minute resolution were derived from 10 years of radar and gauging stations data. These hyetographs are accompanied with information concerning the region of occurrence as well as their frequency related to the rainfall amount. In the next step these hyetographs are used in a complex sensitivity analysis focused on a rainfall-runoff response of small watersheds. This analysis takes into account the uncertainty related to type of the hydrological model, watershed characteristics and main model routines parameterization. Five models with different methods and structure are considered and each model is applied on 5 characteristic watersheds selected from a classification of 7700 small Czech watersheds. For each combination of model and watershed 30, rainfall scenarios were simulated and other scenarios will be used to address the parameters uncertainty. In the last step the variability of outputs will be assessed in the context of economic impacts on design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research is supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, rainfall data were provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

  19. Modeling land surface hydrology sensitivity in the Colorado River Basin to historical climate variability (United States)

    Whitney, K. M.; Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.


    Over the past century, the Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced substantial warming and interannual climate variations, including prolonged drought periods. These patterns are projected to accelerate in the 21st century, with major consequences for water resources in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. To evaluate future projections appropriately, however, it is important to first quantify the regional hydrologic response to historical climate variability in the CRB. In the current effort, we force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model and a river routing model with historical meteorological data to estimate water balance components and naturalized streamflow response in the CRB at 1/16o spatial resolution and at an hourly time step over the period 1950-2013. We utilize data products from satellite remote sensing to specify spatiotemporal variations in vegetation parameters and include an irrigation scheme to account for evapotranspiration from croplands in the CRB. Furthermore, we apply recent modifications in VIC to more properly account for bare soil evaporation in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Analyses of the historical model simulations are focused on quantifying the spatiotemporal variability of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt response and their linkages to extreme meteorological events. Here we characterize the annual and monthly distributions, trends, and statistical extremes and central tendencies of water balance terms averaged over the CRB and its sub-basins for the entire study period 1950-2013. By building a model-based hydrologic climatology and catalog of historical extreme events for the CRB, we aim to construct a basis for future activities that analyze the impact of statistically downscaled climate change projections on the hydrology of the CRB and its urban areas.

  20. Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models (United States)

    Miller, L. D.; Tom, C.; Nualchawee, K.


    A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

  1. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage (United States)

    Dow, C. F.; Kulessa, B.; Rutt, I. C.; Tsai, V. C.; Pimentel, S.; Doyle, S. H.; van As, D.; Lindbäck, K.; Pettersson, R.; Jones, G. A.; Hubbard, A.


    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and examine whether substantial, efficient subglacial channels can form during or following lake drainage events and their effect on the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system. We force the model with field data from a lake drainage site, 70 km from the terminus of Russell Glacier in West Greenland. The model outputs suggest that efficient subglacial channels do not readily form in the vicinity of the lake during rapid drainage and instead water is evacuated primarily by a transient turbulent sheet and the distributed system. Following lake drainage, channels grow but are not large enough to reduce the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system, unless preexisting channels are present throughout the domain. Our results have implications for the analysis of subglacial hydrological systems in regions where rapid lake drainage provides the primary mechanism for surface-to-bed connections.

  2. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling (United States)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.


    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  3. Propagation of hydrological modeling uncertainties on bed load transport simulations in steep mountain streams (United States)

    Eichner, Bernhard; Koller, Julian; Kammerlander, Johannes; Schöber, Johannes; Achleitner, Stefan


    As mountain streams are sources of both, water and sediment, they are strongly influencing the whole downstream river network. Besides large flood flow events, the continuous transport of sediments during the year is in the focus of this work. Since small mountain streams are usually not measured, spatial distributed hydrological models are used to assess the internal discharges triggering the sediment transport. In general model calibration will never be perfect and is focused on specific criteria such as mass balance or peak flow, etc. The remaining uncertainties influence the subsequent applications, where the simulation results are used. The presented work focuses on the question, how modelling uncertainties in hydrological modelling impact the subsequent simulation of sediment transport. The applied auto calibration by means of MonteCarlo Simulation optimizes the model parameters for different aspects (efficiency criteria) of the runoff time series. In this case, we investigated the impacts of different hydrological criteria on a subsequent bed load transport simulation in catchment of the Längentaler Bach, a small catchment in the Stubai Alps. The used hydrologic model HQSim is a physically based semi-distributed water balance model. Different hydrologic response units (HRU), which are characterized by elevation, orientation, vegetation, soil type and depth, drain with various delay into specified river reaches. The runoff results of the Monte-Carlo simulation are evaluated in comparison to runoff gauge, where water is collected by the Tiroler Wasserkraft AG (TIWAG). Using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) on events and main runoff period (summer), the weighted root mean squared error (RMSE) on duration curve and a combination of different criteria, a set of best fit parametrization with varying runoff series was received as input for the bed load transport simulation. These simulations are performed with sedFlow, a tool especially developed for bed load

  4. Modeling Hydrologic Processes after Vegetation Restoration in an Urban Watershed with HEC-HMS (United States)

    Stevenson, K.; Kinoshita, A. M.


    The San Diego River Watershed in California (USA) is highly urbanized, where stream channel geomorphology are directly affected by anthropogenic disturbances. Flooding and water quality concerns have led to an increased interest in improving the condition of urban waterways. Alvarado Creek, a 1200-meter section of a tributary to the San Diego River will be used as a case study to understand the degree to which restoration efforts reduce the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on hydrologic processes and water quality in urban stream ecosystems. In 2016, non-native vegetation (i.e. Washingtonia spp. (fan palm), Phoenix canariensis (Canary Island palm)) and approximately 7257 kilograms of refuse were removed from the study reach. This research develops the United States Army Corp of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydraulic Modeling System (USACE HEC-HMS) using field-based data to model and predict the short- and long-term impacts of restoration on geomorphic and hydrologic processes. Observations include cross-sectional area, grain-size distributions, water quality, and continuous measurements of streamflow, temperature, and precipitation. Baseline and design storms are simulated before and after restoration. The model will be calibrated and validated using field observations. The design storms represent statistical likelihoods of storms occurrences, and the pre- and post-restoration hydrologic responses will be compared to evaluate the impact of vegetation and waste removal on runoff processes. Ultimately model parameters will be transferred to other urban creeks in San Diego that may potentially undergo restoration. Modeling will be used to learn about the response trajectory of rainfall-runoff processes following restoration efforts in urban streams and guide future management and restoration activities.

  5. Rainfall Simulator Experiments to Investigate Macropore Impacts on Hillslope Hydrological Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Smit


    Full Text Available Understanding hillslope runoff response to intense rainfall is an important topic in hydrology, and is key to correct prediction of extreme stream flow, erosion and landslides. Although it is known that preferential flow processes activated by macropores are an important phenomena in understanding runoff processes inside a hillslope, hydrological models have generally not embraced the concept of an extra parameter that represents ‘macropores’ because of the complexity of the phenomenon. Therefore, it is relevant to investigate the influence of macropores on runoff processes in an experimental small artificial hillslope. Here, we report on a controlled experiment where we could isolate the influence of macropores without the need for assumptions regarding their characteristics. Two identical hillslopes were designed, of which one was filled with artificial macropores. Twelve artificial rainfall events were applied to the two hillslopes and results of drainage and soil moisture were investigated. After the experiments, it could be concluded that the influence of macropores on runoff processes was minimal. The S90 sand used for this research caused runoff to respond fast to rainfall, leading to little or no development of saturation near the macropores. In addition, soil moisture data showed a large amount of pendular water in the hillslopes, which implies that the soil has a low air entry value, and, in combination with the lack of vertical flow, could have caused the pressure difference between the matrix and the macropores to vanish sooner and result in equilibrium being reached in a relatively short time. Nevertheless, a better outline is given to determine a correct sand type for these types of experiments and, by using drainage recession analysis to investigate the influences of macropores on runoff, heterogeneity in rainfall intensity can be overcome. This study is a good point of reference to start future experiments from concerning

  6. One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM) (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Boyce, Scott E.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hughes, Joseph D.; Mehl, Steffen W.; Leake, Stanley A.; Maddock, Thomas; Niswonger, Richard G.


    The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model (IHM) that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. Conjunctive use is the combined use of groundwater and surface water. MF-OWHM allows the simulation, analysis, and management of nearly all components of human and natural water movement and use in a physically-based supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 (MF-FMP2) combined with Local Grid Refinement (LGR) for embedded models to allow use of the Farm Process (FMP) and Streamflow Routing (SFR) within embedded grids. MF-OWHM also includes new features such as the Surface-water Routing Process (SWR), Seawater Intrusion (SWI), and Riparian Evapotrasnpiration (RIP-ET), and new solvers such as Newton-Raphson (NWT) and nonlinear preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCGN). This IHM also includes new connectivities to expand the linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows. Deformation-dependent flows are simulated through the optional linkage to simulated land subsidence with a vertically deforming mesh. Flow-dependent flows now include linkages between the new SWR with SFR and FMP, as well as connectivity with embedded models for SFR and FMP through LGR. Head-dependent flows now include a modified Hydrologic Flow Barrier Package (HFB) that allows optional transient HFB capabilities, and the flow between any two layers that are adjacent along a depositional or erosional boundary or displaced along a fault. MF-OWHM represents a complete operational hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by irrigated agriculture, but also of water used in urban areas and by natural vegetation. Supply and demand components of water use are analyzed under demand-driven and supply

  7. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.


    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  8. A Flexible Framework Hydrological Informatic Modeling System - HIMS (United States)

    WANG, L.; Wang, Z.; Changming, L.; Li, J.; Bai, P.


    Simulating water cycling process temporally and spatially fitting for the characteristics of the study area was important for floods prediction and streamflow simulation with high accuracy, as soil properties, land scape, climate, and land managements were the critical factors influencing the non-linear relationship of rainfall-runoff at watershed scales. Most existing hydrological models cannot simulate water cycle process at different places with customized mechanisms with fixed single structure and mode. This study develops Hydro-Informatic Modeling System (HIMS) model with modular of each critical hydrological process with multiple choices for various scenarios to solve this problem. HIMS has the structure accounting for two runoff generation mechanisms of infiltration excess and saturation excess and estimated runoff with different methods including Time Variance Gain Model (TVGM), LCM which has good performance at ungauged areas, besides the widely used Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. Channel routing model contains the most widely used Muskingum, and kinematic wave equation with new solving method. HIMS model performance with its symbolic runoff generation model LCM was evaluated through comparison with the observed streamflow datasets of Lasha river watershed at hourly, daily, and monthly time steps. Comparisons between simulational and obervational streamflows were found with NSE higher than 0.87 and WE within ±20%. Water balance analysis about precipitation, streamflow, actual evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture change was conducted temporally at annual time step and it has been proved that HIMS model performance was reliable through comparison with literature results at the Lhasa River watershed.

  9. Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems (United States)

    Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.


    The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web

  10. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes. (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D


    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  11. Techniques to Access Databases and Integrate Data for Hydrologic Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, Gene; Tenney, Nathan D.; Pelton, Mitchell A.; Coleman, Andre M.; Ward, Duane L.; Droppo, James G.; Meyer, Philip D.; Dorow, Kevin E.; Taira, Randal Y.


    This document addresses techniques to access and integrate data for defining site-specific conditions and behaviors associated with ground-water and surface-water radionuclide transport applicable to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews. Environmental models typically require input data from multiple internal and external sources that may include, but are not limited to, stream and rainfall gage data, meteorological data, hydrogeological data, habitat data, and biological data. These data may be retrieved from a variety of organizations (e.g., federal, state, and regional) and source types (e.g., HTTP, FTP, and databases). Available data sources relevant to hydrologic analyses for reactor licensing are identified and reviewed. The data sources described can be useful to define model inputs and parameters, including site features (e.g., watershed boundaries, stream locations, reservoirs, site topography), site properties (e.g., surface conditions, subsurface hydraulic properties, water quality), and site boundary conditions, input forcings, and extreme events (e.g., stream discharge, lake levels, precipitation, recharge, flood and drought characteristics). Available software tools for accessing established databases, retrieving the data, and integrating it with models were identified and reviewed. The emphasis in this review was on existing software products with minimal required modifications to enable their use with the FRAMES modeling framework. The ability of four of these tools to access and retrieve the identified data sources was reviewed. These four software tools were the Hydrologic Data Acquisition and Processing System (HDAPS), Integrated Water Resources Modeling System (IWRMS) External Data Harvester, Data for Environmental Modeling Environmental Data Download Tool (D4EM EDDT), and the FRAMES Internet Database Tools. The IWRMS External Data Harvester and the D4EM EDDT were identified as the most promising tools based on their ability to access and

  12. Techniques to Access Databases and Integrate Data for Hydrologic Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, Gene; Tenney, Nathan D.; Pelton, Mitchell A.; Coleman, Andre M.; Ward, Duane L.; Droppo, James G.; Meyer, Philip D.; Dorow, Kevin E.; Taira, Randal Y.


    This document addresses techniques to access and integrate data for defining site-specific conditions and behaviors associated with ground-water and surface-water radionuclide transport applicable to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews. Environmental models typically require input data from multiple internal and external sources that may include, but are not limited to, stream and rainfall gage data, meteorological data, hydrogeological data, habitat data, and biological data. These data may be retrieved from a variety of organizations (e.g., federal, state, and regional) and source types (e.g., HTTP, FTP, and databases). Available data sources relevant to hydrologic analyses for reactor licensing are identified and reviewed. The data sources described can be useful to define model inputs and parameters, including site features (e.g., watershed boundaries, stream locations, reservoirs, site topography), site properties (e.g., surface conditions, subsurface hydraulic properties, water quality), and site boundary conditions, input forcings, and extreme events (e.g., stream discharge, lake levels, precipitation, recharge, flood and drought characteristics). Available software tools for accessing established databases, retrieving the data, and integrating it with models were identified and reviewed. The emphasis in this review was on existing software products with minimal required modifications to enable their use with the FRAMES modeling framework. The ability of four of these tools to access and retrieve the identified data sources was reviewed. These four software tools were the Hydrologic Data Acquisition and Processing System (HDAPS), Integrated Water Resources Modeling System (IWRMS) External Data Harvester, Data for Environmental Modeling Environmental Data Download Tool (D4EM EDDT), and the FRAMES Internet Database Tools. The IWRMS External Data Harvester and the D4EM EDDT were identified as the most promising tools based on their ability to access and

  13. Assessing hydrological impact of potential land use change through hydrological and land use change modeling for the Kishwaukee River basin (USA). (United States)

    Choi, Woonsup; Deal, Brian M


    We connected a cellular, dynamic, spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set up and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable changes in surface flow; (2) the argument that low flows tend to decrease with more urbanized areas in a basin was confirmed in this study but the selection of indicators for low flows can result in misleading conclusions; (3) dynamic simulation modeling by connecting a distributed land use change model and a semi-distributed hydrological model can be a good decision support tool demanding reasonable amount of efforts and capable of long-term scenario-based assessments.

  14. Regional review: the hydrology of the Okavango Delta, Botswana-processes, data and modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milzow, C.; Kgotlhang, L.; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter


    . For the global community, the wetlands retain a tremendous pool of biodiversity. As the upstream states Angola and Namibia are developing, however, changes in the use of the water of the Okavango River and in the ecological status of the wetlands are to be expected. To predict these impacts, the hydrology...... of the Delta has to be understood. This article reviews scientific work done for that purpose, focussing on the hydrological modelling of surface water and groundwater. Research providing input data to hydrological models is also presented. It relies heavily on all types of remote sensing. The history...... of hydrologic models of the Delta is retraced from the early box models to state-of-the-art distributed hydrological models. The knowledge gained from hydrological models and its relevance for the management of the Delta are discussed....

  15. A high-resolution European dataset for hydrologic modeling (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Salamon, Peter; Gomes, Goncalo; Sint, Hadewij; Lorini, Valerio; Thielen, Jutta


    There is an increasing demand for large scale hydrological models not only in the field of modeling the impact of climate change on water resources but also for disaster risk assessments and flood or drought early warning systems. These large scale models need to be calibrated and verified against large amounts of observations in order to judge their capabilities to predict the future. However, the creation of large scale datasets is challenging for it requires collection, harmonization, and quality checking of large amounts of observations. For this reason, only a limited number of such datasets exist. In this work, we present a pan European, high-resolution gridded dataset of meteorological observations (EFAS-Meteo) which was designed with the aim to drive a large scale hydrological model. Similar European and global gridded datasets already exist, such as the HadGHCND (Caesar et al., 2006), the JRC MARS-STAT database (van der Goot and Orlandi, 2003) and the E-OBS gridded dataset (Haylock et al., 2008). However, none of those provide similarly high spatial resolution and/or a complete set of variables to force a hydrologic model. EFAS-Meteo contains daily maps of precipitation, surface temperature (mean, minimum and maximum), wind speed and vapour pressure at a spatial grid resolution of 5 x 5 km for the time period 1 January 1990 - 31 December 2011. It furthermore contains calculated radiation, which is calculated by using a staggered approach depending on the availability of sunshine duration, cloud cover and minimum and maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration (potential evapotranspiration, bare soil and open water evapotranspiration). The potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation with the above-mentioned meteorological variables. The dataset was created as part of the development of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and has been continuously updated throughout the last years. The dataset variables are used as

  16. Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble (United States)

    Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia


    Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

  17. Microtopographic hydrologic variability change resulting from vegetation acclimation response to elevated atmospheric CO2 (United States)

    Le, P. V.; Kumar, P.


    The elevated concentration of atmospheric CO2 increases the ratio of carbon fixation to water loss from plants or water use efficiency, which reduces transpiration. However, the magnitude of the effects of this vegetation acclimation on hydrologic dynamics, such as soil moisture content and surface runoff controlled by microtopographic variability on the land surface, remains unclear. Here we integrate a multi-layer canopy-root-soil model (MLCan) with a coupled surface-subsurface flow model (GCSFlow) to capture the acclimation responses of vegetation to climate change and predict how these changes affect hydrologic dynamics on landscapes at fine scales. The model is implemented on a hybrid CPU-GPU parallel computing environment to overcome challenges associated with the high density of computational grid and nonlinear solvers. The model is capable of simulating large-scale heterogeneities due to both microtopography and soils and lateral water fluxes at emerging lidar-scale resolutions (~1m). We demonstrate that hybrid computing is feasible for detailed, large-scale ecohydrologic modeling, which has been previously assumed to be an intractable computational problem. Simulations are performed for corn crop in the Goose Creek watershed in central Illinois, USA at present and projected higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2, 400 ppm and 550 ppm, respectively. The results show a net decrease of 11% for the average annual evapotranspiration of corn, which increases water content in the soil and at the land surface. These results highlight the critical role of a warming climate on atmospheric-soil-vegetation interactions and the need to understand other dynamics near the soil surface associated with water and vegetation.

  18. Anthropogenic factors as an element of uncertainty in hydrological modelling of water yield with SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Corobov


    Full Text Available In 2014 the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used as a basis for follow-up investigations of Moldova’s small rivers potential flow. The first step of the study included the validation of SWAT for local conditions. As an experimental area, the Cogilnic River watershed was selected. Interim steps included the watershed delineation aimed to identify the subwatersheds and the Hydrological Response Units (small entities with the same characteristics of hydrologic soil type, land use and slopes. To address these tasks, the land cover, soil and slope layers, based on the Digital Elevation Model, were integrated in the SWAT environment. These thematic layers, alongside with long-term information on local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, enabled reflecting the differences in hydrological conditions and defining the watershed runoff. However, the validation of the modelling outputs, carried out through comparison of a simulated water yield from the studied watershed with actual Cogilnic streamflow measures, observed in 2010-2012, showed a great discrepancy between these parameters caused by anthropogenic loading on this small river. Thus, a ‘classical’ SWAT modelling needs to account for real environmental conditions and water use in the study area.

  19. Improved hydrological-model design by integrating nutrient and water flow (United States)

    Arheimer, B.; Lindstrom, G.


    The potential of integrating hydrologic and nutrient concentration data to better understand patterns of catchment response and to better design hydrological modeling was explored using a national multi-basin model system for Sweden, called ';S-HYPE'. The model system covers more than 450 000 km2 and produce daily values of nutrient concentration and water discharge in 37 000 catchments from 1961 and onwards. It is based on the processed-based and semi-distributed HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) code. The model is used operationally for assessments of water status or climate change impacts and for forecasts by the national warning service of floods, droughts and fire. The first model was launched in 2008, but S-HYPE is continuously improved and released in new versions every second year. Observations are available in 400 sites for daily water discharge and some 900 sites for monthly grab samples of nutrient concentrations. The latest version (2012) has an average NSE for water discharge of 0.7 and an average relative error of 5%, including both regulated and unregulated rivers with catchments from ten to several thousands of km2 and various landuse. The daily relative errors of nutrient concentrations are on average 20% for total Nitrogen and 35% for total Phosphorus. This presentation will give practical examples of how the nutrient data has been used to trace errors or inadequate parameter values in the hydrological model. Since 2008 several parts of the model structure has been reconsidered both in the source code, parameter values and input data of catchment characteristics. In this process water quality has been guiding much of the overall model design of catchment hydrological functions and routing along the river network. The model structure has thus been developed iteratively when evaluating results and checking time-series. Examples of water quality driven improvements will be given for estimation of vertical flow paths, such as

  20. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape (United States)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo


    Soil water availability is one of the main components of the terroir concept, influencing crop yield and fruit composition in grapes. The aim of this work is to analyze some elements of the "natural environment" of terroir (climate and soil) in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. From a reference (1961-90) to a future (2021-50) climate case, the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability are assessed and, regarding soil water regime as a predictor variable, the potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars is determined. In a region of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, 20,000 ha), where a terroir classification has been produced (Bonfante et al., 2011), we applied an agro-hydrological model to determine water availability indicators. Simulations were performed in 60 soil typological units, over the entire study area, and water availability (= hydrological) indicators were determined. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of predictions by general circulation models (AOGCM) under A1B SRES scenario. Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological indicators was addressed. With respect to temporal variability, both inter-annual and intra-annual (i.e. at different stages of crop cycle) variability were analyzed. Some cultivar-specific relations between hydrological indicators and characteristics of must quality were established. Moreover, for several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to soil water availability, through the re-analysis of experimental data derived from scientific literature. The standard errors of estimated

  1. Fish population responses to hydrological variation in a seasonal wetland in southeast México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis H. Escalera-Vázquez


    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Hydrological variation differently affects fish species. In the present study, the response of local populations of 13 fish local species to hydrological variation in a tropical wetland was evaluated. The objectives were to analyze the abundance response of fish species with distinct life history strategies and to assess the role of hydrological variation on fish population patterns. We found that opportunistic strategists were favored by high hydrological variation in drought periods, the equilibrium strategists were related to stable habitats, and periodic strategists were regulated by floods and temperature. However, the life history strategies identified for some species in this study do not correspond to the classification reported in other studies. Our results highlight the importance to study the abundance responses of species at local and regional scales to identify variations in life-history strategies, which can reflect local adaptations of species to hydrological changes, this is useful in order to understand and predict the responses of fish populations to the local environment.

  2. Quantile hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment : 1. Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.


    A theory for quantile based hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment is presented. The paper demonstrates that the degree to which a model selection problem is constrained by the model structure (measured by the Lagrange multipliers of the constraints) quantifies

  3. Using SMAP to identify structural errors in hydrologic models (United States)

    Crow, W. T.; Reichle, R. H.; Chen, F.; Xia, Y.; Liu, Q.


    Despite decades of effort, and the development of progressively more complex models, there continues to be underlying uncertainty regarding the representation of basic water and energy balance processes in land surface models. Soil moisture occupies a central conceptual position between atmosphere forcing of the land surface and resulting surface water fluxes. As such, direct observations of soil moisture are potentially of great value for identifying and correcting fundamental structural problems affecting these models. However, to date, this potential has not yet been realized using satellite-based retrieval products. Using soil moisture data sets produced by the NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive mission, this presentation will explore the use of the remotely-sensed soil moisture data products as a constraint to reject certain types of surface runoff parameterizations within a land surface model. Results will demonstrate that the precision of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone soil moisture product allows for the robust sampling of correlation statistics describing the true strength of the relationship between pre-storm soil moisture and subsequent storm-scale runoff efficiency (i.e., total storm flow divided by total rainfall both in units of depth). For a set of 16 basins located in the South-Central United States, we will use these sampled correlations to demonstrate that so-called "infiltration-excess" runoff parameterizations under predict the importance of pre-storm soil moisture for determining storm-scale runoff efficiency. To conclude, we will discuss prospects for leveraging this insight to improve short-term hydrologic forecasting and additional avenues for SMAP soil moisture products to provide process-level insight for hydrologic modelers.

  4. Use of hydrological modelling and isotope techniques in Guvenc basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinbilek, D.


    The study covers the work performed under Project No. 335-RC-TUR-5145 entitled ''Use of Hydrologic Modelling and Isotope Techniques in Guvenc Basin'' and is an initial part of a program for estimating runoff from Central Anatolia Watersheds. The study presented herein consists of mainly three parts: 1) the acquisition of a library of rainfall excess, direct runoff and isotope data for Guvenc basin; 2) the modification of SCS model to be applied to Guvenc basin first and then to other basins of Central Anatolia for predicting the surface runoff from gaged and ungaged watersheds; and 3) the use of environmental isotope technique in order to define the basin components of streamflow of Guvenc basin. 31 refs, figs and tabs

  5. Operational Testing of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) (United States)

    Gaur, Srishti; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghavendra P.


    Incorporation of the concept of transposability in model testing is one of the prominent ways to check the credibility of a hydrological model. Successful testing ensures ability of hydrological models to deal with changing conditions, along with its extrapolation capacity. For a newly developed model, a number of contradictions arises regarding its applicability, therefore testing of credibility of model is essential to proficiently assess its strength and limitations. This concept emphasizes to perform 'Hierarchical Operational Testing' of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), a newly developed surface water-groundwater coupled model, under PRACRITI-2 program initiated by Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad. SHM aims at sustainable water resources management using remote sensing data from Indian satellites. It consists of grid cells of 5km x 5km resolution and comprises of five modules namely: Surface Water (SW), Forest (F), Snow (S), Groundwater (GW) and Routing (ROU). SW module (functions in the grid cells with land cover other than forest and snow) deals with estimation of surface runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration by using NRCS-CN method, water balance and Hragreaves method, respectively. The hydrology of F module is dependent entirely on sub-surface processes and water balance is calculated based on it. GW module generates baseflow (depending on water table variation with the level of water in streams) using Boussinesq equation. ROU module is grounded on a cell-to-cell routing technique based on the principle of Time Variant Spatially Distributed Direct Runoff Hydrograph (SDDH) to route the generated runoff and baseflow by different modules up to the outlet. For this study Subarnarekha river basin, flood prone zone of eastern India, has been chosen for hierarchical operational testing scheme which includes tests under stationary as well as transitory conditions. For this the basin has been divided into three sub-basins using three flow

  6. A hydrological modeling framework for defining achievable performance standards for pesticides. (United States)

    Rousseau, Alain N; Lafrance, Pierre; Lavigne, Martin-Pierre; Savary, Stéphane; Konan, Brou; Quilbé, Renaud; Jiapizian, Paul; Amrani, Mohamed


    This paper proposes a hydrological modeling framework to define achievable performance standards (APSs) for pesticides that could be attained after implementation of recommended management actions, agricultural practices, and available technologies (i.e., beneficial management practices [BMPs]). An integrated hydrological modeling system, Gestion Intégrée des Bassins versants à l'aide d'un Système Informatisé, was used to quantify APSs for six Canadian watersheds for eight pesticides: atrazine, carbofuran, dicamba, glyphosate, MCPB, MCPA, metolachlor, and 2,4-D. Outputs from simulation runs to predict pesticide concentration under current conditions and in response to implementation of two types of beneficial management practices (reduced pesticide application rate and 1- to 10-m-wide edge-of-field and/or riparian buffer strips, implemented singly or in combination) showed that APS values for scenarios with BMPs were less than those for current conditions. Moreover, APS values at the outlet of watersheds were usually less than ecological thresholds of good condition, when available. Upstream river reaches were at greater risk of having concentrations above a given ecological thresholds because of limited stream flows and overland loads of pesticides. Our integrated approach of "hydrological modeling-APS estimation-ecotoxicological significance" provides the most effective interpretation possible, for management and education purposes, of the potential biological impact of predicted pesticide concentrations in rivers. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  7. Hydrologic Responses to Projected Climate Change in Ecologically-Vulnerable Watersheds of the Gulf Coast, USA (United States)

    Neupane, R. P.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.


    Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle of the Gulf Coast watersheds in the United States, which contain some of the highest levels of biodiversity of all freshwater systems in North America. Understanding potential hydrologic responses to continued climate change in these watersheds is important for management of water resources and to sustain ecological diversity. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrologic processes and estimate the potential hydrological changes for the mid-21st century (2050s) and the late-21st century (2080s) in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds located in the Gulf Coast, USA. These estimates were based on downscaled future climate projections from 20 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Models were calibrated and validated using observed data from 58, 19, and 14 streamflow gauges in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds, respectively. Evaluation indices including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and refined index of agreement (dr) were used to assess model quality. The mean values derived during calibration (NSE=0.68, R2=0.77, and dr=0.73) and validation (NSE=0.70, R2=0.78, and dr=0.74) of all watersheds indicated that the models performed well at simulating monthly streamflow. Our simulation results indicated an overall increase in mean annual streamflow for all the watersheds with a maximum increase in discharge of 28.6% for the Suwannee River watershed for RCP 4.5 during the 2080s, which is associated with a 6.8% increase in precipitation during the same time period. We observed an overall warming (4.2oC) with an increase in future precipitation (3.8%) in all watersheds during the 2080s under the worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the historical time period. Despite an increase in future precipitation, surface

  8. Development of a coupled hydrological - hydrodynamic model for probabilistic catchment flood inundation modelling (United States)

    Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Dunne, Toby; Neal, Jeff; Bates, Paul; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy; Parkin, Geoff


    Computationally efficient flood inundation modelling systems capable of representing important hydrological and hydrodynamic flood generating processes over relatively large regions are vital for those interested in flood preparation, response, and real time forecasting. However, such systems are currently not readily available. This can be particularly important where flood predictions from intense rainfall are considered as the processes leading to flooding often involve localised, non-linear spatially connected hillslope-catchment responses. Therefore, this research introduces a novel hydrological-hydraulic modelling framework for the provision of probabilistic flood inundation predictions across catchment to regional scales that explicitly account for spatial variability in rainfall-runoff and routing processes. Approaches have been developed to automate the provision of required input datasets and estimate essential catchment characteristics from freely available, national datasets. This is an essential component of the framework as when making predictions over multiple catchments or at relatively large scales, and where data is often scarce, obtaining local information and manually incorporating it into the model quickly becomes infeasible. An extreme flooding event in the town of Morpeth, NE England, in 2008 was used as a first case study evaluation of the modelling framework introduced. The results demonstrated a high degree of prediction accuracy when comparing modelled and reconstructed event characteristics for the event, while the efficiency of the modelling approach used enabled the generation of relatively large ensembles of realisations from which uncertainty within the prediction may be represented. This research supports previous literature highlighting the importance of probabilistic forecasting, particularly during extreme events, which can be often be poorly characterised or even missed by deterministic predictions due to the inherent

  9. Hydrology model evaluation at the Hanford Nuclear Waste Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    One and two-dimensional flow and contaminant transport computer models have been developed at Hanford to assess the rate and direction of contaminant movement from waste disposal sites. The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the potential improvement in accuracy that a three-dimensional model might offer over the simpler one and two-dimensional models. INTERA's hydrology contaminant transport model was used for this evaluation. Although this study was conceptual in nature, an attempt was made to relate it as closely as possible to Hanford conditions. Two-dimensional model runs were performed over the period of 1968 to 1973 using estimates of waste discharge flows, tritium concentrations, vertically averaged values of aquifer properties and boundary conditions. The well test interpretation runs confirmed the applicability of the areal hydraulic conductivity distribution. Velocity fields calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models and surface concentration profiles calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models show significant differences. Vertical concentration profiles calculated by a three-dimensional model show better qualitative agreement with the limited observed concentration profile data supplied by ARHCO.

  10. Modelling the effect of hydrological change on estuarine health: An Australian Perspective. (Invited) (United States)

    Bruce, L. C.; Adiyanti, S.; Ruibal, A. L.; Hipsey, M. R.


    Estuaries provide an important role in the filtering and transformation of carbon and nutrients from coastal catchments into the marine environment. Global trends including climate change, increased population, industrialization and agriculture have led to the rapid deterioration of estuarine ecosystems across the world. Within the Australian context, a particular concern is how changes to hydrological regimes, due to both water diversions and climate variability, are contributing to increased stress and consequent decline in estuarine health. In this study we report the modeling output of five Australian estuaries, each with different hydrological regimes and alternative management issues relating to altered hydrology: 1) The Yarra River estuary is a highly urbanized system, also receiving agriculturally derived nutrients, where the concern is the role of periodic hypoxia in reducing the assimilation capacity of nitrogen and thus increased risk of algal blooms forming in the coastal environment; 2) The upper Swan River estuary in Western Australia, which experiences persistent anoxia and hypoxia brought about by reduced flows has led to the commissioning of several oxygenation plants to alleviate stress on biodiversity and overall estuarine health; 3) The health of the Caboolture estuary in Queensland has deteriorated in the past decade with the aim of model development to quantify the various sources of surface and groundwater derived nutrients; 4) The construction of an additional channel to increase flushing in the Peel Harvey estuary in Western Australia was designed to control persistent harmful algal blooms; and 5) The Lower River Murray estuary experienced a prolonged drought that led to the development of acid sulfate soils and acid drainage deteriorating water quality. For these applications we applied 3-D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models to determine underlying relationships between altered flow regimes, increased temperatures and the response of

  11. Relating climate change signals and physiographic catchment properties to clustered hydrological response types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin


    Full Text Available We propose an approach to reduce a comprehensive set of 186 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland to fewer response types to climate change and to name sensitive regions as well as catchment characteristics that govern hydrological change. We classified the hydrological responses of our study catchments through an agglomerative-hierarchical cluster analysis, and we related the dominant explanatory variables, i.e. the determining catchment properties and climate change signals, to the catchments' hydrological responses by means of redundancy analysis. All clusters except for one exhibit clearly decreasing summer runoff and increasing winter runoff. This seasonal shift was observed for the near future period (2025–2046 but is particularly obvious in the far future period (2074–2095. Within a certain elevation range (between 1000 and 2500 m a.s.l., the hydrological change is basically a function of elevation, because the latter governs the dominant hydro-climatological processes associated with temperature, e.g. the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation and snow melt processes. For catchments below the stated range, hydrological change is mainly a function of precipitation change, which is not as pronounced as the temperature signal is. Future impact studies in Switzerland can be conducted on a reduced sample of catchments representing the sensitive regions or covering a range of altitudes.

  12. A remote sensing driven distributed hydrological model of the Senegal River basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stisen, Simon; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Sandholt, Inge


    Distributed hydrological models require extensive data amounts for driving the models and for parameterization of the land surface and subsurface. This study investigates the potential of applying remote sensing (RS) based input data in a hydrological model for the 350,000 km2 Senegal River basin...

  13. Implications of the choice and configuration of hydrologic models on the portrayal of climate change impact (United States)

    Mendoza, P. A.; Clark, M. P.; Rajagopalan, B.; Mizukami, N.; Gutmann, E. D.


    Climate change studies involve several methodological choices that impact the hydrological sensitivities obtained. Among these, hydrologic model structure selection and parameter identification are particularly relevant and usually have a strong subjective component. This subjectivity is not only limited to engineering applications, but also extends to many of our research studies, resulting in problems such as missing processes in our models, inappropriate parameterizations and compensatory effects of model parameters. The goal of this research is to identify the role of model structures and parameter values on the assessment of hydrologic sensitivity to climate change. We conduct our study in three basins located in the Colorado Headwaters Region, using four different hydrologic models (PRMS, VIC, Noah and Noah-MP). We first compare both model performance and climate sensitivities using default parameterizations and parameter values calibrated with the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm. Our results demonstrate that calibration doesn't necessarily improve the representation of hydrological processes or decrease inter-model differences in the change of signature measures of hydrologic behavior with respect to a future climate scenario. We found that inter-model differences in hydrologic sensitivities to climate change may be larger than the climate change signal even after models have been calibrated. Results demonstrate that both model choice (after calibration) and parameter selection have important effects in the portrayal of climate change impacts, and work is ongoing to identify more robust modeling strategies that explicitly account for the subjectivity in these choices. Location of the basins of interest Hydrological models used in this study

  14. Monitoring strategies and scale appropriate hydrologic and biogeochemical modelling for natural resource management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bende-Michl, Ulrike; Volk, Martin; Harmel, Daren


    -appropriate hydrologic and biogeochemical modelling for natural resource management’ session at the 2008 International Environmental Modelling and Simulation Society conference, Barcelona, Spain. The outcomes of the session and recent international studies exemplify the need for a stronger collaboration...... techniques, and 3) representation of hydrologic and biogeochemical phenomena in model development and practical application for natural resource management....

  15. Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature (United States)

    Toda, Masaki; Watanabe, Masahiro


    An effective mechanism for determining tropical rainfall patterns in response to sea surface temperature (SST) increases with varying magnitude and horizontal distribution has not been developed thus far in climate change studies. In order to examine changes in precipitation pattern with increasing SST, we conducted a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments using a 30 year record of observed SST for which either globally uniform SST increases of 1 K, 2 K, and 4 K or El Niño/La Niña-like patterned SST anomaly has been imposed. Although the global-mean precipitation linearly increases with the SST increase irrespective of its spatial distribution, regional precipitation changes were found to occur nonlinearly depending on the magnitude of the uniform SST increase. Owing to nonlinearity in the atmospheric circulation response, the regional hydrological sensitivity was larger with a smaller increase in SST. The precipitation response to the SST pattern was, however, quasi-linear to the magnitude of the SST change and can be separated from the response to the uniform SST increase. This study thus emphasizes the importance of relative amplitudes of uniform and structured SST increases for future rainfall projection.

  16. An observational and modeling study of impacts of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on surface energy and hydrological cycles (United States)

    Fei Chen; Guo Zhang; Michael Barlage; Ying Zhang; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Arjan Meddens; Guangsheng Zhou; William J. Massman; John Frank


    Bark beetle outbreaks have killed billions of trees and affected millions of hectares of forest during recent decades. The objective of this study was to quantify responses of surface energy and hydrologic fluxes 2-3 yr following a spruce beetle outbreak using measurements and modeling. The authors used observations at the Rocky Mountains Glacier Lakes Ecosystem...

  17. Ecological responses of a large shallow lake (Okeechobee, Florida) to climate change and potential future hydrologic regimes. (United States)

    Havens, Karl E; Steinman, Alan D


    We considered how Lake Okeechobee, a large shallow lake in Florida, USA, might respond to altered hydrology associated with climate change scenarios in 2060. Water budgets and stage hydrographs were provided from the South Florida Water Management Model, a regional hydrologic model used to develop plans for Everglades restoration. Future scenarios include a 10% increase or decrease in rainfall (RF) and a calculated increase in evapotranspiration (ET), which is based on a 1.5 °C rise in temperature. Increasing RF and ET had counter-balancing effects on the water budget and when changing concurrently did not affect hydrology. In contrast, when RF decreased while ET increased, this resulted in a large change in hydrology. The surface elevation of the lake dropped by more than 2 m under this scenario compared to a future base condition, and extreme low elevation persisted for multiple years. In this declining RF/increasing ET scenario, the littoral and near-shore zones, areas that support emergent and submerged plants, were dry 55% of the time compared to less than 4% of the time in the future base run. There also were times when elevation increased as much as 3 m after intense RF events. Overall, these changes in hydrologic conditions would dramatically alter ecosystem services. Uncertainty about responses is highest at the pelagic-littoral interface, in regard to whether an extremely shallow lake could support submerged vascular plants, which are critical to the recreational fishery and for migratory birds. Along with improved regional climate modeling, research in that interface zone is needed to guide the adaptive process of Everglades restoration.

  18. Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling (United States)

    Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose


    Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

  19. Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. K. Westerberg


    Full Text Available The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models will normally depend on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, are challenged by problems including: (1 uncertain discharge data, (2 variable sensitivity of different performance measures to different flow magnitudes, (3 influence of unknown input/output errors and (4 inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. This paper explores a calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs to address these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs on the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested – based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application, e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the method appears less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than previous use of limits of

  20. An eco-hydrologic model of malaria outbreaks (United States)

    Montosi, E.; Manzoni, S.; Porporato, A.; Montanari, A.


    Malaria is a geographically widespread infectious disease that is well known to be affected by climate variability at both seasonal and interannual timescales. In an effort to identify climatic factors that impact malaria dynamics, there has been considerable research focused on the development of appropriate disease models for malaria transmission and their consideration alongside climatic datasets. These analyses have focused largely on variation in temperature and rainfall as direct climatic drivers of malaria dynamics. Here, we further these efforts by considering additionally the role that soil water content may play in driving malaria incidence. Specifically, we hypothesize that hydro-climatic variability should be an important factor in controlling the availability of mosquito habitats, thereby governing mosquito growth rates. To test this hypothesis, we reduce a nonlinear eco-hydrologic model to a simple linear model through a series of consecutive assumptions and apply this model to malaria incidence data from three South African provinces. Despite the assumptions made in the reduction of the model, we show that soil water content can account for a significant portion of malaria's case variability beyond its seasonal patterns, whereas neither temperature nor rainfall alone can do so. Future work should therefore consider soil water content as a simple and computable variable for incorporation into climate-driven disease models of malaria and other vector-borne infectious diseases.

  1. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  2. Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-arid Environments (United States)

    Lahmers, T. M.; Gupta, H.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Gochis, D.; Yates, D. N.; Dugger, A. L.; Goodrich, D. C.


    The NOAA National Water Center (NWC) implemented an operational National Water Model (NWM) in August 2016 to simulate and forecast streamflow and soil moisture throughout the Contiguous US (CONUS). The NWM is based on the WRF-Hydro hydrologic model architecture, with a 1-km resolution Noah-MP LSM grid and a 250m routing grid. The operational NWM does not currently resolve infiltration of water from the beds of ephemeral channels, which is an important component of the water balance in semi-arid environments common in many portions of the western US. This work demonstrates the benefit of a conceptual channel infiltration function in the WRF-Hydro model architecture following calibration. The updated model structure and parameters for the NWM architecture, when implemented operationally, will permit its use in flow simulation and forecasting in the southwest US, particularly for flash floods in basins with smaller drainage areas. Our channel infiltration function is based on that of the KINEROS2 semi-distributed hydrologic model, which has been tested throughout the southwest CONUS for flash flood forecasts. Model calibration utilizes the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) algorithm, and the model is calibrated using NLDAS-2 atmospheric forcing and NCEP Stage-IV precipitation. Our results show that adding channel infiltration to WRF-Hydro can produce a physically consistent hydrologic response with a high-resolution gauge based precipitation forcing dataset in the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. NWM WRF-Hydro is also tested for the Babocomari River, Beaver Creek, and Sycamore Creek catchments in southern and central Arizona. In these basins, model skill is degraded due to uncertainties in the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation forcing dataset.

  3. Hydrologic Setting and Conceptual Hydrologic Model of the Walker River Basin, West-Central Nevada (United States)

    Lopes, Thomas J.; Allander, Kip K.


    The Walker River is the main source of inflow to Walker Lake, a closed-basin lake in west-central Nevada. Between 1882 and 2008, agricultural diversions resulted in a lake-level decline of more than 150 feet and storage loss of 7,400,000 acre-ft. Evaporative concentration increased dissolved solids from 2,500 to 17,000 milligrams per liter. The increase in salinity threatens the survival of the Lahontan cutthroat trout, a native species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. This report describes the hydrologic setting of the Walker River basin and a conceptual hydrologic model of the relations among streams, groundwater, and Walker Lake with emphasis on the lower Walker River basin from Wabuska to Hawthorne, Nevada. The Walker River basin is about 3,950 square miles and straddles the California-Nevada border. Most streamflow originates as snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada. Spring runoff from the Sierra Nevada typically reaches its peak during late May to early June with as much as 2,800 cubic feet per second in the Walker River near Wabuska. Typically, 3 to 4 consecutive years of below average streamflow are followed by 1 or 2 years of average or above average streamflow. Mountain ranges are comprised of consolidated rocks with low hydraulic conductivities, but consolidated rocks transmit water where fractured. Unconsolidated sediments include fluvial deposits along the active channel of the Walker River, valley floors, alluvial slopes, and a playa. Sand and gravel deposited by the Walker River likely are discontinuous strata throughout the valley floor. Thick clay strata likely were deposited in Pleistocene Lake Lahontan and are horizontally continuous, except where strata have been eroded by the Walker River. At Walker Lake, sediments mostly are clay interbedded with alluvial slope, fluvial, and deltaic deposits along the lake margins. Coarse sediments form a multilayered, confined-aquifer system that could extend several miles from the shoreline

  4. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change (United States)

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.


    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  5. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data erros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.; Vrugt, J.A.; Beek, van P.H.; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.


    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

  6. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi


    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)


    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  8. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weiland, Frederiek C. Sperna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L. ) P. H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/125022794


    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

  9. Rainfall Simulator Experiments to Investigate Macropore Impacts on Hillslope Hydrological Response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/380675048; Teuling, Adriaan J.; van der Ploeg, Martine J.


    Understanding hillslope runoff response to intense rainfall is an important topic in hydrology, and is key to correct prediction of extreme stream flow, erosion and landslides. Although it is known that preferential flow processes activated by macropores are an important phenomena in understanding

  10. Disinformative data in large-scale hydrological modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kauffeldt


    Full Text Available Large-scale hydrological modelling has become an important tool for the study of global and regional water resources, climate impacts, and water-resources management. However, modelling efforts over large spatial domains are fraught with problems of data scarcity, uncertainties and inconsistencies between model forcing and evaluation data. Model-independent methods to screen and analyse data for such problems are needed. This study aimed at identifying data inconsistencies in global datasets using a pre-modelling analysis, inconsistencies that can be disinformative for subsequent modelling. The consistency between (i basin areas for different hydrographic datasets, and (ii between climate data (precipitation and potential evaporation and discharge data, was examined in terms of how well basin areas were represented in the flow networks and the possibility of water-balance closure. It was found that (i most basins could be well represented in both gridded basin delineations and polygon-based ones, but some basins exhibited large area discrepancies between flow-network datasets and archived basin areas, (ii basins exhibiting too-high runoff coefficients were abundant in areas where precipitation data were likely affected by snow undercatch, and (iii the occurrence of basins exhibiting losses exceeding the potential-evaporation limit was strongly dependent on the potential-evaporation data, both in terms of numbers and geographical distribution. Some inconsistencies may be resolved by considering sub-grid variability in climate data, surface-dependent potential-evaporation estimates, etc., but further studies are needed to determine the reasons for the inconsistencies found. Our results emphasise the need for pre-modelling data analysis to identify dataset inconsistencies as an important first step in any large-scale study. Applying data-screening methods before modelling should also increase our chances to draw robust conclusions from subsequent

  11. Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayzonee Ligaray


    Full Text Available The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003–2011. This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

  12. OBJTOP - A New Model to Simulate Hydrological Processes (United States)

    Wang, J.; Endreny, T. A.


    Object-Oriented Design (OOD) methods and the Objected-Oriented Programming (OOP) language-C++ were used to create a new version of TOPMODEL, a spatially explicit and topographically based watershed runoff model. The new model, referred to as OBJTOP, both a) realizes the benefits of the OOD and OOP compared with traditional procedural based programming, as well as b) allows for easy relaxation of four hydrological defaults in the traditional TOPMODEL scheme. The OOD and OOP benefits of OBJTOP include features of encapsulation, inheritance, reusability, and polymorphism. More pertinent to non-programmers, the OOD and OOP enable OBJTOP to efficiently simulate watersheds of any size and for any duration without redimensionalzing arrays and recompiling the source code. Further, OBJTOP provides model routines, and an interactive graphical user interface (GUI), that allows users to simulate 1) saturation excess or infiltration excess overland flow, 2) exponential or power law decay of hydraulic conductivity with depth, 3) soil topographic index or topographic index weighting of runoff likelihood, 4) multiple of single watershed simulation, and 5) with or without channel routing. This presentation will present the underlying OOD and OOP structure used to create OBJTOP and illustrate the model calibration advantages of easy relaxation of TOPMODEL assumptions.

  13. Hydrological model for the transport of radioisotope in surface water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adoboah, E.K.


    The use of radioisotopes has gained grounds in Ghana as a result of the numerous benefits that could be derived from it. In Ghana, radioisotope materials are used for various purposes in a number of institutions. However, improper disposal of the waste poses threat to the environment. To evaluate the environmental impact of radioisotope pollution, mathematical models play a major role in predicting the pollution level in any medium. This study is concerned with the hydrological model for the transport of radioactive material in the river. The model was composed by employing partial differential equations, describing relevant physical processes evolution (water level, velocities and dissolved substances concentrations) that occurs in water bodies. The mass conservation and momentum laws, state equation and state transport equations are equation system basis. The explicit central difference scheme in space and a forward difference method in time were used for the evaluation of the generalized transport equation, the Advection-Dispersion Equation. A Matlab code was developed to predict the concentration of the radioactive contaminant at any particular time along the river and in a reservoir. The model was able to simulate accurately the various levels of radionuclide concentration changes in the flowing rivers as the flows are augmented by tributary inflows. (au)

  14. A topography-driven hydrological model in the Heihe River, China (United States)

    Gao, Hongkai; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gharari, Shervan


    A new topography-driven hydrological model was developed and tested in the upper Heihe River Basin and validated in two nested sub-basins using independent remote sensing sources. Topography is closely related to geomorphology, land use, ecosystems, and, as a result, it reflects the dominant hydrological processes. However, existing models use topography in a rather basic way. In this study, we classified the river basin into four landscapes by using two topographic indicators: the elevation above sea level, and the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND). On the basis of this classification each landscape class was described by a different conceptual model. During this translation process, we used soft data and expert knowledge to constrain the model structure and parameter ranges. After calibration, additional data was used for validation, including hydrograph data in different periods and in nested gauge stations. In addition we compared modeled evaporation with evaporation maps obtained from remote sensing. The novelty of this study is threefold: (1) we used a new method for topography-driven landscape classification and successfully translated this classification into model structures describing the dominant hydrological processes in the different landscapes; (2) the two nested catchments have quite distinct landscapes which made the nested validation process more stringent; (3) independent evaporation data was used to further validate the model. Several interesting conclusions are drawn: (1) the classification method which combined HAND and elevation is powerful to separate different landscapes; (2) the wetland and the summit area covered by bare soil/rock are the main peak flow producing region in the Heihe River Basin. The hillslopes with grassland and the summit area are mostly responsible for deep percolation and generate the largest proportion of the base flow ; (3) almost all the rainfall in the forested area of the upper Heihe River Basin is

  15. A new world lakes database for global hydrological modelling (United States)

    Pimentel, Rafael; Hasan, Abdulghani; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit


    Lakes are crucial systems in global hydrology, they constitutes approximately a 65% of the total amount of surface water over the world. The recent advances in remote sensing technology have allowed getting new higher spatiotemporal resolution for global water bodies information. Within them, ESA global map of water bodies, stationary map at 150 m spatial resolution, (Lamarche et al., 2015) and the new high-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, 32 years product with a 30 m spatial resolution (Pekel et al., 2016). Nevertheless, these databases identifies all the water bodies, they do not make differences between lakes, rivers, wetlands and seas. Some global databases with isolate lake information are available, i.e. GLWD (Global Lakes and Wetland Database) (Lernhard and Döll, 2004), however the location of some of the lakes is shifted in relation with topography and their extension have also experimented changes since the creation of the database. This work presents a new world lake database based on ESA global map water bodies and relied on the lakes in GLWD. Lakes from ESA global map of water bodies were identified using a flood fill algorithm, which is initialized using the centroid of the lakes defined in GLWD. Some manual checks were done to split lakes that are really connected but identified as different lakes in GLWD database. In this way the database associated information provided in GLDW is maintained. Moreover, the locations of the outlet of all them were included in the new database. The high resolution upstream area information provided by Global Width Database for Large Rivers (GWD-LR) was used for that. This additional points location constitutes very useful information for watershed delineation by global hydrological modelling.. The methodology was validated using in situ information from Sweden lakes and extended over the world. 13 500 lakes greater than 0.1 km2 were identified.

  16. Changes in catchment hydrology in relation to vegetation recovery: a comparative modelling experiment (United States)

    Lana-Renault, Noemí; Karssenberg, Derek; Latron, Jérôme; Serrano, Mā Pilar; Regüés, David; Bierkens, Marc F. P.


    Mediterranean mountains have been largely affected by land abandonment and subsequent vegetation recovery, with a general expansion of shrubs and forests. Such a large scale land-cover change has modified the hydrological behavior of these areas, with significant impact on runoff production. Forecasting the trend of water resources under future re-vegetation scenarios is of paramount importance in Mediterranean basins, where water management relies on runoff generated in these areas. With this purpose, a modelling experiment was designed based on the information collected in two neighbouring research catchments with a different history of land use in the central Spanish Pyrenees. One (2.84 km2) is an abandoned agricultural catchment subjected to plant colonization and at present mainly covered by shrubs. The other (0.92 km2) is a catchment covered by dense natural forest, representative of undisturbed environments. Here we present the results of the analysis of the hydrological differences between the two catchments, and a description of the approach and results of the modelling experiment. In a statistical analysis of the field data, significant differences were observed in the streamflow response of the two catchments. The forested catchment recorded fewer floods per year compared to the old agricultural catchment, and its hydrological response was characterised by a marked seasonality, with autumn and spring as the only high flow periods. Stormflow was generally higher in the old agricultural catchment, especially for low to intermediate size events; only for large events the stormflow in the forested catchment was sometimes greater. Under drier conditions, the relative differences in the stormflow between the two catchments tended to increase whereas under wet conditions they tended to be similar. The forested catchment always reacted more slowly to rainfall, with lower peakflows (generally one order of magnitude lower) and longer recession limbs. The modelling

  17. Constraining the JULES land-surface model for different land-use types using citizen-science generated hydrological data (United States)

    Chou, H. K.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.


    Community land surface models such as JULES are increasingly used for hydrological assessment because of their state-of-the-art representation of land-surface processes. However, a major weakness of JULES and other land surface models is the limited number of land surface parameterizations that is available. Therefore, this study explores the use of data from a network of catchments under homogeneous land-use to generate parameter "libraries" to extent the land surface parameterizations of JULES. The network (called iMHEA) is part of a grassroots initiative to characterise the hydrological response of different Andean ecosystems, and collects data on streamflow, precipitation, and several weather variables at a high temporal resolution. The tropical Andes are a useful case study because of the complexity of meteorological and geographical conditions combined with extremely heterogeneous land-use that result in a wide range of hydrological responses. We then calibrated JULES for each land-use represented in the iMHEA dataset. For the individual land-use types, the results show improved simulations of streamflow when using the calibrated parameters with respect to default values. In particular, the partitioning between surface and subsurface flows can be improved. But also, on a regional scale, hydrological modelling was greatly benefitted from constraining parameters using such distributed citizen-science generated streamflow data. This study demonstrates the modelling and prediction on regional hydrology by integrating citizen science and land surface model. In the context of hydrological study, the limitation of data scarcity could be solved indeed by using this framework. Improved predictions of such impacts could be leveraged by catchment managers to guide watershed interventions, to evaluate their effectiveness, and to minimize risks.

  18. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    constructed from geological and hydrological data. However, geophysical data are increasingly used to inform hydrogeologic models because they are collected at lower cost and much higher density than geological and hydrological data. Despite increased use of geophysics, it is still unclear whether......, ‘true’, hydrogeological and geophysical systems. The two types of ‘true’ systems can be used together with corresponding forward codes to generate hydrological and geophysical datasets, respectively. These synthetic datasets can be interpreted using any hydrogeophysical inversion scheme...

  19. Modeling the effect of urban infrastructure on hydrologic processes within i-Tree Hydro, a statistically and spatially distributed model (United States)

    Taggart, T. P.; Endreny, T. A.; Nowak, D.


    Gray and green infrastructure in urban environments alters many natural hydrologic processes, creating an urban water balance unique to the developed environment. A common way to assess the consequences of impervious cover and grey infrastructure is by measuring runoff hydrographs. This focus on the watershed outlet masks the spatial variation of hydrologic process alterations across the urban environment in response to localized landscape characteristics. We attempt to represent this spatial variation in the urban environment using the statistically and spatially distributed i-Tree Hydro model, a scoping level urban forest effects water balance model. i-Tree Hydro has undergone expansion and modification to include the effect of green infrastructure processes, road network attributes, and urban pipe system leakages. These additions to the model are intended to increase the understanding of the altered urban hydrologic cycle by examining the effects of the location of these structures on the water balance. Specifically, the effect of these additional structures and functions on the spatially varying properties of interception, soil moisture and runoff generation. Differences in predicted properties and optimized parameter sets between the two models are examined and related to the recent landscape modifications. Datasets used in this study consist of watersheds and sewersheds within the Syracuse, NY metropolitan area, an urban area that has integrated green and gray infrastructure practices to alleviate stormwater problems.

  20. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Yu, X.; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Ch.; Krám, P.; Hruška, Jakub


    Roč. 90, part B (2016), s. 90-101 ISSN 0098-3004 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Uncertainty * Evapotranspiration * Forest management * PIHM * Biome-BGC Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.533, year: 2016

  1. Modelling Peatland Hydrology: Three cases from Northern Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querner, E.P.; Mioduszewski, W.; Povilaitis, A.; Slesicka, A.


    Many of the peatlands that used to extend over large parts of Northern Europe have been reclaimed for agriculture. Human influence continues to have a major impact on the hydrology of those that remain, affecting river flow and groundwater levels. In order to understand this hydrology it is

  2. A flexible hydrological modelling system developed using an object oriented methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rinde, Trond


    The report presents a software system called Process Integrating Network (PINE). The capabilities, working principles, programming technical design and principles of use of the system are described as are some practical applications. PINE is a simulation tool for modelling of hydrological and hydrologically related phenomena. The system is based on object oriented programming principles and was specially designed to provide freedom in the choice of model structures and algorithms for process descriptions. It supports full freedom with regards to spatial distribution and temporal resolution. Geographical information systems (GIS) may be integrated with PINE in order to provide full spatial distribution in system parametrisation, process simulation and visualisation of simulation results. Simulation models are developed by linking components for process description together in a structure. The system can handle compound working media such as water with chemical or biological constituents. Non-hydrological routines may then be included to describe the responses of such constituents. Features such as extensibility and reuse of program components are emphasised in the program design. Separation between process topology, process descriptions and process data facilitates simple and consistent implementation of components for process description. Such components may be automatically prototyped and their response functions may be implemented without knowledge of other parts of the program system and without the need to program import or export routines or a user interface. Model extension is thus a rapid process that does not require extensive programming skills. Components for process descriptions may further be placed in separate program libraries, which can be included in the program as required. The program system can thus be very compact while it still has a large number of process algorithms available. The system can run on both PC and UNIX platforms. 106 figs., 20

  3. A Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis method for analyzing parameter uncertainty of hydrological model (United States)

    Liu, Y. R.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Zhang, J. L.; Fan, Y. R.


    In this study, a Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis (BMFA) method is developed to assess parameter uncertainties and their effects on hydrological model responses. In BMFA, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is employed to approximate the posterior distributions of model parameters with Bayesian inference; factorial analysis (FA) technique is used for measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses in terms of posterior distributions to investigate the individual and interactive effects of parameters on model outputs. BMFA is then applied to a case study of the Jinghe River watershed in the Loess Plateau of China to display its validity and applicability. The uncertainties of four sensitive parameters, including soil conservation service runoff curve number to moisture condition II (CN2), soil hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), plant available water capacity (SOL_AWC), and soil depth (SOL_Z), are investigated. Results reveal that (i) CN2 has positive effect on peak flow, implying that the concentrated rainfall during rainy season can cause infiltration-excess surface flow, which is an considerable contributor to peak flow in this watershed; (ii) SOL_K has positive effect on average flow, implying that the widely distributed cambisols can lead to medium percolation capacity; (iii) the interaction between SOL_AWC and SOL_Z has noticeable effect on the peak flow and their effects are dependent upon each other, which discloses that soil depth can significant influence the processes of plant uptake of soil water in this watershed. Based on the above findings, the significant parameters and the relationship among uncertain parameters can be specified, such that hydrological model's capability for simulating/predicting water resources of the Jinghe River watershed can be improved.

  4. High-resolution numerical modeling of meteorological and hydrological conditions during May 2014 floods in Serbia (United States)

    Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Pejanovic, Goran; Nickovic, Slobodan; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Rajkovic, Borivoj; Djordjevic, Marija


    In May 2014 west Balkan region was affected by catastrophic floods in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and eastern parts of Croatia. Observed precipitation amount were extremely high, on many stations largest ever recorded. In the period from 12th to 18th of May, most of Serbia received between 50 to 100 mm of rainfall, while western parts of the country, which were influenced the most, had over 200 mm of rainfall, locally even more than 300 mm. This very intense precipitation came when the soil was already saturated after a very wet period during the second half of April and beginning of May, when most of Serbia received between 120 i 170 mm of rainfall. New abundant precipitation on already saturated soil increased surface and underground water flow, caused floods, soil erosion and landslides. High water levels, most of them record breaking, were measured on the Sava, Drina, Dunav, Kolubara, Ljig, Ub, Toplica, Tamnava, Jadar, Zapadna Morava, Velika Morava, Mlava and Pek river. Overall, two cities and 17 municipals were severely affected by the floods, 32000 people were evacuated from their homes, while 51 died. Material damage to the infrastructure, energy power system, crops, livestock funds and houses is estimated to more than 2 billion euro. Although the operational numerical weather forecast gave in generally good precipitation prediction, flood forecasting in this case was mainly done through the expert judgment rather than relying on dynamic hydrological modeling. We applied an integrated atmospheric-hydrologic modelling system to some of the most impacted catchments in order to timely simulate hydrological response, and examine its potentials as a flood warning system. The system is based on the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model NMMB, which is a numerical weather prediction model that can be used on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Its non-hydrostatic module allows high horizontal resolution and resolving cloud systems as well as large

  5. Modeling water quality in an urban river using hydrological factors--data driven approaches. (United States)

    Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Pin-An; Coynel, Alexandra; Vachaud, Georges


    Contrasting seasonal variations occur in river flow and water quality as a result of short duration, severe intensity storms and typhoons in Taiwan. Sudden changes in river flow caused by impending extreme events may impose serious degradation on river water quality and fateful impacts on ecosystems. Water quality is measured in a monthly/quarterly scale, and therefore an estimation of water quality in a daily scale would be of good help for timely river pollution management. This study proposes a systematic analysis scheme (SAS) to assess the spatio-temporal interrelation of water quality in an urban river and construct water quality estimation models using two static and one dynamic artificial neural networks (ANNs) coupled with the Gamma test (GT) based on water quality, hydrological and economic data. The Dahan River basin in Taiwan is the study area. Ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) is considered as the representative parameter, a correlative indicator in judging the contamination level over the study. Key factors the most closely related to the representative parameter (NH3-N) are extracted by the Gamma test for modeling NH3-N concentration, and as a result, four hydrological factors (discharge, days w/o discharge, water temperature and rainfall) are identified as model inputs. The modeling results demonstrate that the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) network furnished with recurrent connections can accurately estimate NH3-N concentration with a very high coefficient of efficiency value (0.926) and a low RMSE value (0.386 mg/l). Besides, the NARX network can suitably catch peak values that mainly occur in dry periods (September-April in the study area), which is particularly important to water pollution treatment. The proposed SAS suggests a promising approach to reliably modeling the spatio-temporal NH3-N concentration based solely on hydrological data, without using water quality sampling data. It is worth noticing that such estimation can be

  6. Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. von Gunten


    Full Text Available Droughts are serious natural hazards, especially in semi-arid regions. They are also difficult to characterize. Various summary metrics representing the dryness level, denoted drought indices, have been developed to quantify droughts. They typically lump meteorological variables and can thus directly be computed from the outputs of regional climate models in climate-change assessments. While it is generally accepted that drought risks in semi-arid climates will increase in the future, quantifying this increase using climate model outputs is a complex process that depends on the choice and the accuracy of the drought indices, among other factors. In this study, we compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions at the annual timescale. We simulate the hydrological responses of a small catchment in northern Spain to droughts in present and future climate, using an integrated hydrological model calibrated for different irrigation scenarios. We compute the correlation of meteorological drought indices with the simulated hydrological time series (discharge, groundwater levels, and water deficit and compare changes in the relationships between hydrological variables and drought indices. While correlation coefficients linked with a specific drought index are similar for all tested land uses and climates, the relationship between drought indices and hydrological variables often differs between present and future climate. Drought indices based solely on precipitation often underestimate the hydrological impacts of future droughts, while drought indices that additionally include potential evapotranspiration sometimes overestimate the drought effects. In this study, the drought indices with the smallest bias were the rainfall anomaly index, the reconnaissance drought index, and

  7. On Approaches to Analyze the Sensitivity of Simulated Hydrologic Fluxes to Model Parameters in the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Bao


    Full Text Available Effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.

  8. Surface and near-surface hydrological model of Olkiluoto island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.


    The aim of the study was to develop a 3D-model that calculates the overall water balance components of Olkiluoto Island in the present-day condition utilizing the existing extensive data sets available. The model links the unsaturated and saturated soil water in the overburden and groundwater in bedrock to a continuous pressure system. The parameterization of land use and vegetation was done in such a way that the model can later on be used for description of the past evolution of the overburden hydrology at the site and overburden's hydrological evolution in the future. Measured groundwater level in overburden tubes, pressure heads in shallow bedrock holes, snow depth, soil temperature, frost depth and discharge measurements were used in assessing the performance of the models in the calibration period (01.05.2001- 31.12.2005). Computed groundwater level variation can be characterized by variables ΔH MEAS and ΔH COMP , which are the difference between maximum and minimum measured and computed groundwater level value during the calibration period. Average ΔH MEAS for all tubes located in fine-textured till soil was 1.99 m and the corresponding computed value ΔH COMP was 1.83 m. Average ΔH MEAS for all tubes located in sandy till soil was 2.12 m and the corresponding computed value ΔH COMP was 1.93 m. The computed results indicate that in future studies it is necessary to divide the two most important soil types into several subclasses. In the present study the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was carried out through a parameter uncertainty framework known as GLUE. According to the uncertainty analysis the average yearly runoff was around 175 mm a -1 and 50 % confidence limits were 155 and 195 mm a -1 . Measured average yearly runoff during the calibration period was 190 mm a -1 . Average yearly evapotranspiration estimate was 310 mm a -1 and the 50 % confidence limits were 290 and 330 mm a -1 . Average value for recharge through the bedrock system was 1

  9. Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model


    Jianhua Wang; Chuiyu Lu; Qingyan Sun; Weihua Xiao; Guoliang Cao; Hui Li; Lingjia Yan; Bo Zhang


    Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence a...

  10. visCOS: An R-package to evaluate model performance of hydrological models (United States)

    Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Wesemann, Johannes; Schulz, Karsten


    The evaluation of model performance is a central part of (hydrological) modelling. Much attention has been given to the development of evaluation criteria and diagnostic frameworks. (Klemeš, 1986; Gupta et al., 2008; among many others). Nevertheless, many applications exist for which objective functions do not yet provide satisfying summaries. Thus, the necessity to visualize results arises in order to explore a wider range of model capacities, be it strengths or deficiencies. Visualizations are usually devised for specific projects and these efforts are often not distributed to a broader community (e.g. via open source software packages). Hence, the opportunity to explicitly discuss a state-of-the-art presentation technique is often missed. We therefore present a comprehensive R-package for evaluating model performance by visualizing and exploring different aspects of hydrological time-series. The presented package comprises a set of useful plots and visualization methods, which complement existing packages, such as hydroGOF (Zambrano-Bigiarini et al., 2012). It is derived from practical applications of the hydrological models COSERO and COSEROreg (Kling et al., 2014). visCOS, providing an interface in R, represents an easy-to-use software package for visualizing and assessing model performance and can be implemented in the process of model calibration or model development. The package provides functions to load hydrological data into R, clean the data, process, visualize, explore and finally save the results in a consistent way. Together with an interactive zoom function of the time series, an online calculation of the objective functions for variable time-windows is included. Common hydrological objective functions, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency, can also be evaluated and visualized in different ways for defined sub-periods like hydrological years or seasonal sections. Many hydrologists use long-term water-balances as a

  11. Total water storage assessment using GRACE and a hydrological model (United States)

    Fang, B.; Sridhar, V. R.; Billah, M.; Lakshmi, V.


    Seven climate and hydrological datasets from in-situ, gridded, model, and remote sensing data are used to estimate seasonal and annual variations in the water budget for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The estimated water storage computed from different combination of water budgets inputs and model within the water balance framework are compared with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived terrestrial water storage. Among the estimates, a combined application of gridded in-situ and remotely sensed budget components showed reliable estimates of monthly water storage that matched with the GRACE TWSC estimates. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model generated water storage estimates were assessed and found to be closer to that of GRACE estimates in the winter and spring seasons, however, demonstrated differing estimates in the summer and fall. When precipitation was limited, combined input of the water budget components showed the highest agreement (combined -32 mm and GRACE -34 mm) in change in water storage in the Susquehanna River basin.

  12. Applying Spatially Distributed Rainfall to a Hydrological Model in a Tropical Watershed, Manoa Watershed, in Hawaii (United States)

    Huang, Y. F.; Tsang, Y. P.


    Rainfall in Hawaii is characterized with high spatial and temporal variability. In the south side of Oahu, the Manoa watershed, with an area of 11 km2, has the annual maximum rainfall of 3900mm and the minimum rainfall of 1000 mm. Despite this high spatial heterogeneity, the rain gage network seems insufficiently capture this pattern. When simulating stream flow and predicting floods with hydrological models in Hawaii, the model performance is often unsatisfactory because of inadequate representation of rainfall data. Longman et al. (in prep.) have developed the spatially distributed daily rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands by applying ordinary kriging, yet these data have not been applied to hydrological models. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the streamflow simulation by applying spatially-distributed rainfall in the Manoa watershed. We first used point daily-rainfall at Lyon Arboretum from National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) as the uniform rainfall input. Secondly, we summarized sub-watershed mean rainfall from the daily spatial-statistical rainfall. Both rainfall data are available from 1999 to 2014. The SWAT was set up for five-year warm-up, nine-year calibration, and two-year validation. The model parameters were calibrated and validated with four U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. We compared the calibrated watershed parameters, characteristics, and assess the streamflow hydrographs from these two rainfall inputs. The differences and improvement of using spatially distributed rainfall input in SWAT were discussed. In addition to improving the model by the representation of rainfall, this study helped us having a better understanding of the watershed hydrological response in Hawaii.

  13. Hydrologic characterization for Spring Creek and hydrologic budget and model scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962-2007 (United States)

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Norton, Parker A.


    The U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks to characterize hydrologic information relevant to management of water resources associated with Sheridan Lake, which is formed by a dam on Spring Creek. This effort consisted primarily of characterization of hydrologic data for a base period of 1962 through 2006, development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake for this timeframe, and development of an associated model for simulation of storage deficits and drawdown in Sheridan Lake for hypothetical release scenarios from the lake. Historically, the dam has been operated primarily as a 'pass-through' system, in which unregulated outflows pass over the spillway; however, the dam recently was retrofitted with an improved control valve system that would allow controlled releases of about 7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) or less from a fixed depth of about 60 feet (ft). Development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake involved compilation, estimation, and characterization of data sets for streamflow, precipitation, and evaporation. The most critical data need was for extrapolation of available short-term streamflow records for Spring Creek to be used as the long-term inflow to Sheridan Lake. Available short-term records for water years (WY) 1991-2004 for a gaging station upstream from Sheridan Lake were extrapolated to WY 1962-2006 on the basis of correlations with streamflow records for a downstream station and for stations located along two adjacent streams. Comparisons of data for the two streamflow-gaging stations along Spring Creek indicated that tributary inflow is approximately proportional to the intervening drainage area, which was used as a means of estimating tributary inflow for the hydrologic budget. Analysis of evaporation data shows that sustained daily rates may exceed maximum monthly rates by a factor of about two. A long-term (1962-2006) hydrologic budget was developed for computation of reservoir outflow from

  14. Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.; Heling, R.; Zheleznyak, M.


    Full text: Potential releases from nuclear installations may contaminate both the terrestrial and the aquatic environment. Significant dose contributions via the aquatic pathways were shown for releases from Oak Ridge Laboratory (on the Clinch River-Tennessee River basin), for releases from the 'Mayak' plant (on the Techa River - Ob River system) and finally for releases from Chernobyl (on the Dnieper River basin and on the Scandinavian lake system via atmospheric fallout). Of highest concern was the contamination of drinking water, as the public is very sensitive to the quality of this essential nutrient. Consumption of aquatic food products and contamination of terrestrial crops via irrigation are potential exposure pathways which have to be considered in addition in case of a contamination of the aquatic environment. National hydrological services were, among others, responsible for the surveillance of the national water ways. This includes also monitoring of radioactive substances on a routine basis. Besides taking measurements at various locations, models might be available to predict the water discharge and to some extend also the concentration of pollutants in some of the most important river systems. Therefore, one can argue that these services, as they are part of the emergency management team in case of a nuclear emergency, should be able to support decision making to the extend necessary. However, the advice from the hydrological services might be limited to the analysis of the present situation including only limited prediction capabilities mainly focusing on the behaviour of radionuclides in the main river systems in relation to the preduction of drinking water. Contrary to this, a complete hydrological model chain has been established in the RODOS system, covering all relevant processes from the runoff from contaminated areas, transport in river systems and reservoirs, behaviour of radionuclides in lakes and finally the modelling of coastal areas. To

  15. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro


    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  16. Hydrological Responses of Weather Conditions and Crop Change of Agricultural Area in the Rincon Valley, New Mexico (United States)

    Ahn, S.; Sheng, Z.; Abudu, S.


    Hydrologic cycle of agricultural area has been changing due to the impacts of climate and land use changes (crop coverage changes) in an arid region of Rincon Valley, New Mexico. This study is to evaluate the impacts of weather condition and crop coverage change on hydrologic behavior of agricultural area in Rincon Valley (2,466km2) for agricultural watershed management using a watershed-scale hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The SWAT model was developed to incorporate irrigation of different crops using auto irrigation function. For the weather condition and crop coverage change evaluation, three spatial crop coverages including a normal (2008), wet (2009), and dry (2011) years were prepared using USDA crop data layer (CDL) for fourteen different crops. The SWAT model was calibrated for the period of 2001-2003 and validated for the period of 2004-2006 using daily-observed streamflow data. Scenario analysis was performed for wet and dry years based on the unique combinations of crop coverages and releases from Caballo Reservoir. The SWAT model simulated the present vertical water budget and horizontal water transfer considering irrigation practices in the Rincon Valley. Simulation results indicated the temporal and spatial variability for irrigation and non-irrigation seasons of hydrologic cycle in agricultural area in terms of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, percolation, baseflow, soil moisture, and groundwater recharge. The water supply of the dry year could not fully cover whole irrigation period due to dry weather conditions, resulting in reduction of crop acreage. For extreme weather conditions, the temporal variation of water budget became robust, which requires careful irrigation management of the agricultural area. The results could provide guidelines for farmers to decide crop patterns in response to different weather conditions and water availability.

  17. Assimilating Citizen-Based Observations from Low-Cost Sensors in Hydrological Models to Improve Flood Prediction (United States)

    Mazzoleni, M.; Alfonso, L.; Solomatine, D.


    The main goal of this study is to demonstrate how integration of citizen-based observations coming from low-cost sensors (having variable uncertainty and intermittent characteristics) into hydrological models can be used to improve flood prediction. The methodology is applied in the Brue basin, located in the South-West part of UK. In order to estimate the response of the catchment to a given flood event, a conceptual hydrological model is implemented. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological models. Then, a Kalman filter is implemented and adapted to account for asynchronous streamflow observations coming at irregular time steps having random uncertainty. Synthetic streamflow values are used in this study due to the fact that citizen-based observations are not available. The results show how streamflow observations having variable uncertainty can improve the flood prediction. In particular, increasing the number of observations from low-cost sensors within two model time steps can improve the model accuracy leading to a better flood forecast. Observations uncertainty influences the model accuracy more than the irregular moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological model. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (www.

  18. Results of Formal Evaluation of a Data and Modeling Driven Hydrology Learning Module (United States)

    Ruddell, B. L.; Sanchez, C. A.; Schiesser, R.; Merwade, V.


    New hydrologists should not only develop a well-defined knowledgebase of basic hydrological concepts, but also synthesize this factual learning with more authentic 'real-world' knowledge gained from the interpretation and analysis of data from hydrological models (Merwade and Ruddell, 2012, Wagener et al., 2007). However, hydrological instruction is often implemented using a traditional teacher-centered approach (e.g., lectures) (Wagener, 2007). The emergence of rich and dynamic computer simulation techniques which allow students the opportunity for more authentic application of knowledge (Merwade & Ruddell, 2012). This study evaluates the efficacy of using such data-driven simulations to increase the understanding of the field of hydrology in the lower-division undergraduate geoscience classroom. In this study, 88 students at a local community college who were enrolled in an Introductory Earth Science class were evaluated on their learning performance in a unit on applying the Rational Method to estimate hydrographs and flooding for urban areas. Students were either presented with a data and visualization rich computer module (n=52), or with paper and pencil calculation activities (n=36). All conceptual material presented in lecture was consistent across these two conditions. Students were evaluated for not only changes in their knowledge and application of the concepts within the unit (e.g., effects of urbanization and impervious cover, discharge rates), but also for their broad "T-shaped" profile of professional knowledge and skills. While results showed significant (p<.05) increases from pre to post assessments in all learning areas for both groups, there is a significantly larger benefit for the data module group when it came to (1) understanding the effects of urbanization and impervious cover on flooding, (2) applying consistent vocabulary appropriately within context, and (3) explaining the roles and responsibilities of hydrologists and flood managers.

  19. An Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Approach to Cesium-137 Transport in Forested Fukushima Watersheds (United States)

    Siirila-Woodburn, E. R.; Steefel, C. I.; Williams, K. H.; Birkholzer, J. T.


    The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident in Japan resulted in a significant dissemination of cesium-137 (Cs-137) over a wide area west of the plant, including the contamination of many watersheds and the subsequent evacuation of many communities. Today approximately 90% of on-land Cs-137 fallout following the accident resides in the upper 5 cm of forest soils. While this can be partially attributed to the forested composition of the prefecture (70%), there is also difficulty in cleanup efforts in these regions due to a lack of understanding and predictive capability of radioisotopes transport at the catchment to watershed scale. Subsequently, there is an uncertain, but likely long-term impact on local communities with implications for the use of nuclear energy use worldwide. Due to the complex nature of forest eco-hydrology, sophisticated modeling tools to accurately predict Cs-137 fluxes across different spatial and temporal scales are required. High fidelity, high resolution numerical modeling techniques in conjunction with parallel high performance computing is required to accurately determine transport and feedbacks in these complex systems. To better understand the fundamental transport of Cs-137, a watershed near the FDNPP is modeled with an integrated hydrologic model that includes variably saturated groundwater and overland flow in addition to atmospheric and vegetative processes via a coupled land surface model. Of specific interest is the impact of land cover type on hydrologic flow in the area, which will likely play an important role in erosion patterns and the consequent transport of Cs-137 strongly sorbed to surface soils. Risk management practices (for example, passive remediation versus active remediation such as targeted logging) for two principal tree types (evergreen and deciduous) are informed given the simulated responses to flow patterns assuming different quantities and spatial distribution patterns of each tree type.

  20. New hydrologic model of fluid migration in deep porous media (United States)

    Dmitrievsky, A.; Balanyuk, I.


    The authors present a new hydrological model of mantle processes that effect on formation of oil-and-gas bearing basins, fault tectonics and thermal convection. Any fluid migration is initially induced by lateral stresses in the crust and lithosphere which result from global geodynamic processes related to the mantle convection. The global processes are further transformed into regional movements in weakness zones. Model of porous media in deep fractured zones and idea of self-oscillation processes in mantle layers and fractured zones of the crust at different depths was used as the basis for developed concept. The content of these notions resides in the fact that there are conditions of dynamic balance in mantle layers originating as a result of combination and alternate actions of compaction and dilatance mechanisms. These mechanisms can be manifested in different combinations and under different conditions as well as can be complemented by other processes influencing on regime of fluid migration. They can act under condition of passive margin, ocean rift and ocean subduction zones as well as in consolidated platform and sheet. Self-oscillation regime, sub vertical direction of fluid flows, anomalously high layer pressure, and high level of anomalies of various geophysical fields are common for them. A certain class of fluid dynamic models describing consolidation of sedimentary basins, free oscillation processes slow and quick (at the final stage) fluid dynamic processes of the evolution of a sedimentary basin in subduction zones is considered for the first time. The last model of quick fluid dynamic processes reflects the process of formation of hydrocarbon deposits in the zones of collision of lithosphere plates. The results of numerical simulation and diagrams reflecting consecutive stages of the gas-fluid dynamic front propagation are assessed of the Pri-Caspian depression as the example. Calculations with this model will simultaneously be carried out for

  1. Understanding High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Groundwater Recharge Using Process Based Hydrologic Modeling (United States)

    Kang, G.; Qiu, H.; Li, S. G.; Lusch, D.; Phanikumar, M. S.


    Quantifying the natural rates of groundwater recharge and identifying the location and timing of major recharge events are essential for maintaining sustainable water yields and for understanding contaminant transport mechanisms in groundwater systems. Using Ottawa County, Michigan as a case study in sustainable water resources management, this research is part of a larger project that examines the issues of declining water tables and increasing chloride concentrations within the county. A process-based hydrologic model (PAWS) is used to mechanistically evaluate the integrated hydrologic response of both the surface and subsurface systems to further compute daily fluxes due to evapotranspiration, surface runoff, recharge and groundwater-stream interactions. Both rain gauge (NCDC) and NEXRAD precipitation data are used as input for the model. The model is built based on three major watersheds at 300m spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, covering all of Ottawa County and is calibrated using streamflow data from USGS gauging stations. In addition, synoptic and time-series baseflow data collected using Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers and electromagnetic flow meters during the summer of 2015 are used to test the ability of the model to simulate baseflows and to quantify the uncertainty. The MODIS evapotranspiration product is used to evaluate model performance in simulating ET. The primary objectives of this study are to (1) understand the periods of high and low groundwater recharge in the county between the years 2009 and 2015; and (2) analyze the impacts of different types of land use, soil, elevation, and slope on groundwater recharge.

  2. Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables from the GLDAS models (United States)

    Winska, Malgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David


    Continental hydrological loading by land water, snow and ice is a process that is important for the full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study, we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (as hydrological angular momentum, HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of the land-based hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of variables from different hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt and soil moisture, on polar motion excitations at annual and short-term timescales. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion are determined using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. Furthermore, we use time-variable gravity field solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine the hydrological mass effects on polar motion excitation. We first conduct an intercomparison of the maps of variations of regional hydrological excitation functions, timing and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs. Next, we estimate the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation as a residual by subtracting the contributions of atmospheric angular momentum and oceanic angular momentum. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared with those hydrological signals determined from residuals of the observed polar motion excitation series. The results will help us understand the relative importance of polar motion excitation within the individual hydrological processes, based on hydrological modeling. This method will allow us to estimate how well the polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges can be closed.

  3. A coupled mechanical/hydrologic model for WIPP shaft seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehgartner, B.


    Effective sealing of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) shafts will be required to isolate defense-generated transuranic wastes from the accessible environment. Shafts penetrate water-bearing hard rock formations before entering a massive creeping-salt formation (Salado) where the WIPP is located. Short and long-term seals are planned for the shafts. Short-term seals, a composite of concrete and bentonite, will primarily be located in the hard rock formations separating the water-bearing zones from the Salado Formation. These seals will limit water flow to the underlying long-term seals in the Salado. The long-term seals will consist of lengthly segments of initially unsaturated crushed salt. Creep closure of the shaft will consolidate unsaturated crushed salt, thereby reducing its permeability. However, water passing through the upper short-term seals and brine inherent to the salt host rock itself will eventually saturate the crushed salt and consolidation could be inhibited. Before saturating, portions of the crushed salt in the shafts are expected to consolidate to a permeability equivalent to the salt host rock, thereby effectively isolating the waste from the overlying water-bearing formations. A phenomenological model is developed for the coupled mechanical/hydrologic behavior of sealed WIPP shafts. The model couples creep closure of the shaft, crushed salt consolidation, and the associated reduction in permeability with Darcy's law for saturated fluid flow to predict the overall permeability of the shaft seal system with time. 17 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  4. Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia (United States)

    Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.


    This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

  5. Improving the spatial representation of basin hydrology and flow processes in the SWAT model


    Rathjens, Hendrik


    This dissertation aims at improving the spatial representation of basin hydrology and flow processes in the SWAT model. Die vorliegende Dissertation stellt die methodischen Grundlage zur räumlich differenzierten Modellierung mit dem Modell SWAT dar.

  6. SIMGRO, a GIS-Supported Regional Hydrologic Model in Irrigated Areas : Case study in Mendoza, Argentina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querner, E.P.; Morabito, J.A.; Tozzi, D.A.


    The SIMGRO hydrologic simulation model was extended to include irrigation practice. It could then be used to evaluate the effect of hydrologic changes in an irrigated area in the province of Mendoza, Argentina where, given an average annual rainfall of approximately 200mm , irrigation is crucial for

  7. Validation of a mesoscale hydrological model in a small-scale forested catchment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Tesař, Miroslav


    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2016), s. 27-41 ISSN 1998-9563 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02021451 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : hydrological modelling * small catchment * soil moisture * subsurface lateral flow * SWIM Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.754, year: 2016

  8. Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.


    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

  9. The Effect of Modeling and Visualization Resources on Student Understanding of Physical Hydrology (United States)

    Marshall, Jilll A.; Castillo, Adam J.; Cardenas, M. Bayani


    We investigated the effect of modeling and visualization resources on upper-division, undergraduate and graduate students' performance on an open-ended assessment of their understanding of physical hydrology. The students were enrolled in one of five sections of a physical hydrology course. In two of the sections, students completed homework…

  10. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model (United States)

    X. Shi; P.E. Thornton; D.M. Ricciuto; P J. Hanson; J. Mao; Stephen Sebestyen; N.A. Griffiths; G. Bisht


    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth...

  11. Evaluating catchment-scale hydrological modeling by means of terrestrial gravity observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasan, S.; Troch, P.A.; Bogaart, P.W.; Kroner, C.


    In a previous study (Hasan et al., 2006) we applied time series analysis and distributed hydrological modeling techniques to investigate the effect of hydrological processes on observed terrestrial gravity residuals. In this study we apply terrestrial gravity observations (measured in one location)

  12. On noice in data assimilation schemes for improved flood forecasting using distributed hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noh, S.J.; Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A.H.; Tachikawa, Y.


    We investigate the effects of noise specification on the quality of hydrological forecasts via an advanced data assimilation (DA) procedure using a distributed hydrological model driven by numerical weather predictions. The sequential DA procedure is based on (1) a multivariate rainfall ensemble

  13. Simulations of the soil moisture dynamics in the small scale forested catchment using mesoscale hydrological model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav


    Roč. 14, - (2012), s. 4791 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012. 22.04.2012-27.04.2012, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : soil moisture * hydrological modelling * small catchment Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  14. Using expert knowledge of the hydrological system to constrain multi-objective calibration of SWAT models (United States)

    The SWAT model is a helpful tool to predict hydrological processes in a study catchment and their impact on the river discharge at the catchment outlet. For reliable discharge predictions, a precise simulation of hydrological processes is required. Therefore, SWAT has to be calibrated accurately to ...

  15. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.


    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  16. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano


    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  17. Hydrological Modeling Reproducibility Through Data Management and Adaptors for Model Interoperability (United States)

    Turner, M. A.


    Because of a lack of centralized planning and no widely-adopted standards among hydrological modeling research groups, research communities, and the data management teams meant to support research, there is chaos when it comes to data formats, spatio-temporal resolutions, ontologies, and data availability. All this makes true scientific reproducibility and collaborative integrated modeling impossible without some glue to piece it all together. Our Virtual Watershed Integrated Modeling System provides the tools and modeling framework hydrologists need to accelerate and fortify new scientific investigations by tracking provenance and providing adaptors for integrated, collaborative hydrologic modeling and data management. Under global warming trends where water resources are under increasing stress, reproducible hydrological modeling will be increasingly important to improve transparency and understanding of the scientific facts revealed through modeling. The Virtual Watershed Data Engine is capable of ingesting a wide variety of heterogeneous model inputs, outputs, model configurations, and metadata. We will demonstrate one example, starting from real-time raw weather station data packaged with station metadata. Our integrated modeling system will then create gridded input data via geostatistical methods along with error and uncertainty estimates. These gridded data are then used as input to hydrological models, all of which are available as web services wherever feasible. Models may be integrated in a data-centric way where the outputs too are tracked and used as inputs to "downstream" models. This work is part of an ongoing collaborative Tri-state (New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho) NSF EPSCoR Project, WC-WAVE, comprised of researchers from multiple universities in each of the three states. The tools produced and presented here have been developed collaboratively alongside watershed scientists to address specific modeling problems with an eye on the bigger picture of

  18. Modeling hydrology, groundwater recharge and non-point nitrate loadings in the Himalayan Upper Yamuna basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narula, Kapil K.; Gosain, A.K.


    The mountainous Himalayan watersheds are important hydrologic systems responsible for much of the water supply in the Indian sub-continent. These watersheds are increasingly facing anthropogenic and climate-related pressures that impact spatial and temporal distribution of water availability. This study evaluates temporal and spatial distribution of water availability including groundwater recharge and quality (non-point nitrate loadings) for a Himalayan watershed, namely, the Upper Yamuna watershed (part of the Ganga River basin). The watershed has an area of 11 600 km 2 with elevation ranging from 6300 to 600 m above mean sea level. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based, time-continuous model, has been used to simulate the land phase of the hydrological cycle, to obtain streamflows, groundwater recharge, and nitrate (NO 3 ) load distributions in various components of runoff. The hydrological SWAT model is integrated with the MODular finite difference groundwater FLOW model (MODFLOW), and Modular 3-Dimensional Multi-Species Transport model (MT3DMS), to obtain groundwater flow and NO 3 transport. Validation of various modules of this integrated model has been done for sub-basins of the Upper Yamuna watershed. Results on surface runoff and groundwater levels obtained as outputs from simulation show a good comparison with the observed streamflows and groundwater levels (Nash–Sutcliffe and R 2 correlations greater than + 0.7). Nitrate loading obtained after nitrification, denitrification, and NO 3 removal from unsaturated and shallow aquifer zones is combined with groundwater recharge. Results for nitrate modeling in groundwater aquifers are compared with observed NO 3 concentration and are found to be in good agreement. The study further evaluates the sensitivity of water availability to climate change. Simulations have been made with the weather inputs of climate change scenarios of A2, B2, and A1B for end of the century. Water yield estimates

  19. Using the object modeling system for hydrological model development and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kralisch


    Full Text Available State of the art challenges in sustainable management of water resources have created demand for integrated, flexible and easy to use hydrological models which are able to simulate the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the hydrological cycle with a sufficient degree of certainty. Existing models which have been de-veloped to fit these needs are often constrained to specific scales or purposes and thus can not be easily adapted to meet different challenges. As a solution for flexible and modularised model development and application, the Object Modeling System (OMS has been developed in a joint approach by the USDA-ARS, GPSRU (Fort Collins, CO, USA, USGS (Denver, CO, USA, and the FSU (Jena, Germany. The OMS provides a modern modelling framework which allows the implementation of single process components to be compiled and applied as custom tailored model assemblies. This paper describes basic principles of the OMS and its main components and explains in more detail how the problems during coupling of models or model components are solved inside the system. It highlights the integration of different spatial and temporal scales by their representation as spatial modelling entities embedded into time compound components. As an exam-ple the implementation of the hydrological model J2000 is discussed.

  20. Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models (United States)

    Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.


    The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

  1. Hydrological Modeling of the Jezero Crater Outlet-Forming Flood (United States)

    Fassett, C. I.; Goudge, T. A.


    . In the case of Jezero, the discharge through the breach eventually lacked the energy needed to erode through the dam further, preventing complete drainage of the lake. After the initial flood, further incision can take place if additional water flows into, and thus out of, the hydrologically open lake, though the rate of this erosion occurs under more typical fluvial conditions. Despite this qualitative understanding of the process, it is useful to explore numerically what range of model parameters are potentially consistent with obser-vations of the outlet. We ultimately seek to address questions that include: (1) What was the flood hydro-graph?, (2) What sediment transport processes were involved and what can we infer about the erosion process? (3) Can most or all of the Jezero outlet's morphology be explained as a consequence of catastrophic formation, or is additional longer-term erosion required?

  2. Frozen soil parameterization in a distributed biosphere hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Wang


    Full Text Available In this study, a frozen soil parameterization has been modified and incorporated into a distributed biosphere hydrological model (WEB-DHM. The WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then rigorously evaluated in a small cold area, the Binngou watershed, against the in-situ observations from the WATER (Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research. First, by using the original WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, the land surface parameters and two van Genuchten parameters were optimized using the observed surface radiation fluxes and the soil moistures at upper layers (5, 10 and 20 cm depths at the DY station in July. Second, by using the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme, two frozen soil parameters were calibrated using the observed soil temperature at 5 cm depth at the DY station from 21 November 2007 to 20 April 2008; while the other soil hydraulic parameters were optimized by the calibration of the discharges at the basin outlet in July and August that covers the annual largest flood peak in 2008. With these calibrated parameters, the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then used for a yearlong validation from 21 November 2007 to 20 November 2008. Results showed that the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme has given much better performance than the WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, in the simulations of soil moisture profile at the cold regions catchment and the discharges at the basin outlet in the yearlong simulation.

  3. Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation (United States)

    Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

    Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

  4. Hydrological Modelling Using a Rainfall Simulator over an Experimental Hillslope Plot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpit Chouksey


    Full Text Available Hydrological processes are complex to compute in hilly areas when compared to plain areas. The governing processes behind runoff generation on hillslopes are subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix require detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In the present study, a hillslope experimental plot has been designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the Northwestern Himalayas, India where high intensity rainfall events occur frequently. A rainfall simulator was installed over the experimental hillslope plot to generate rainfall with an intensity of 100 mm/h, which represents the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at variable depths from 100 to 1000 mm at different locations of the plot to observe the soil moisture regime. From the experimental observations it was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains at field capacity for the next 24–36 h. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. A dye infiltration test was performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The estimated macropore fractions are used as essential input for the hillslope hydrological model. The main objective of the present study was to develop and test a method for estimating runoff responses from natural rainfall over hillslopes of the Northwestern Himalayas using a portable rainfall simulator. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through a macropore-dominated area have been estimated/analyzed. The surface and subsurface runoff estimated using the developed hillslope hydrological model

  5. (Hydrological and geochemical response and recovery in disturbed arctic ecosystems)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Everett, K.R.


    Ionic concentration of snow prior to meltoff in 1990 as in previous years ranged widely from point to point within the basin. Overland flow began on May 12 and was monitored at closely-spaced time intervals for discharge volume and ionic concentrations to better define this relationship in non-channelized flow. Ionic concentration in both watertrack flow and in Imnavait Creek were closely monitored during meltoff. During the post melt period daily sampling was maintained in watertrack 7 and Imnavait Creek. Rainfall collection and analysis on an eight day schedule was maintained as in previous years. Soil solution composition was monitored on an event basis in conjunction with a similar schedule of precipitation sampling to determine relationships between precipitation and near surface and overland flow. Composition of deeper soil solution was also monitored and sampled for {sup 18}O analyses to determine the age structure of water contributed by the active layer to stream and watertracks. A pilot experiment employing salt tracers was conducted across landscape units to determine rates and pathways of soil solution movement in response to individual rain events. Nutrient addition in rime and fog were also recorded to add detail to the input side of the balance equation.

  6. Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources (United States)

    Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.


    A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also

  7. Preliminary study of the hydrologic response of an urban drainage basin at two different scales (United States)

    Ferreira, Carla; Ferreira, António; Coelho, Celeste; de Lima João, Pedroso


    Predicted changes in climate and urban sprawl areas are expected to cause significant modification in rainfall pattern and hydrological regimes. Urbanization can alter the hydrologic response by increasing streamflow, reducing time of concentration, altering soil moisture levels and increasing overland flow, thereby increasing the size, frequency and speed of peak flow responses. However, despite the profusion of works, effective methodologies to investigate the impacts of potential land-use change on how spatial variability of soil moisture and precipitation affect runoff production at a range of scales and on different land uses remain largely undeveloped. This has important implications for flood prediction accuracy. The main aim of this work is to assess the hydrological response and to understand the influence of different land uses. The study is based on a small urban drainage basin (7 Km2), undergoing rapid urbanization, located in central Portugal: Ribeira dos Covões. It considers a combined approach of field survey and data acquisition to access spatiotemporal dynamics and land uses contributions to surface hydrology, based on drainage basins and small plot scales. At drainage basin scale, the study is based on three years rainfall and stream flow data analysis (collected through an automatic water level recorder and rain gauges). Rainfall-runoff relationship was assessed over the time and isolated events were studied. To understand land uses on the hydrology, rainfall simulations were conducted at the small plot scale (0.25 m2) during a dry period, in forested and deforested areas, agricultural areas, including tilled and abandoned areas, as well as built-up areas (21 experiments with 1 hour duration, with a rain intensity of 43±3 mm h-1). During the experiments hydrophobicity was monitored (Molarity of an Ethanol Droplet technique), soil moisture content was assessed every minute, and runoff volume was measured every 5 minutes. This work has shown the

  8. Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms (United States)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh


    Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor 0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18model use for policy or management decisions.

  9. Hydrological Response Unit Analysis Using AVSWAT 2000 for Keuliling Reservoir Watershed, Aceh Province, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    . Azmeri


    Full Text Available Sediments deposition derived from the erosion in upstream areas can lead to river siltation or canals downstream irrigation. According to the complexity of erosion problem at Keuliling reservoir, it is essential that topography, hydrology, soil type and land use to be analyzed comprehensively. Software used to analyze is AVSWAT 2000 (Arc View Soil and Water Assessment Tools-2000, one of the additional tool of ArcView program. The results obtained are the watershed delineation map, soil type map to produce soil erodibility factor (K which indicates the resistance of soil particles toward exfoliation, land use map to produce crop management factor (C and soil conservation and its management factors (P. Hydrology analysis includes soil type, land use and utility for the erosion rate analysis through Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU. The biggest HRU value of sub-basin is on area 5 and the lowest one is on area 10. All four HRU in sub-basin area 5 are potentially donating high value for HRU. In short, this area has the longest slope length so that it has a large LS factor. About 50% of the land was covered by bushes which gain higher C factor rather than forest. Moreover, it has contour crop conservation technique with 9-20 % declivity resulting in having dominant factor of P. Soil type is dominated by Meucampli Formation which has soil erodibility factor with high level of vulnerable toward the rainfall kinetic energy. All in all, the vast majority of HRU parameters in this sub-basin area obtain the highest HRU value. Hydrology analysis, soil type, and use-land are useful for land area analysis that is susceptible to erosion which was identified through Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU using GIS. As the matter of fact, spatially studies constructed with GIS can facilitate the agency to determine critical areas which are needed to be aware or fully rehabilitated.

  10. The Impact of Microwave-Derived Surface Soil Moisture on Watershed Hydrological Modeling (United States)

    ONeill, P. E.; Hsu, A. Y.; Jackson, T. J.; Wood, E. F.; Zion, M.


    The usefulness of incorporating microwave-derived soil moisture information in a semi-distributed hydrological model was demonstrated for the Washita '92 experiment in the Little Washita River watershed in Oklahoma. Initializing the hydrological model with surface soil moisture fields from the ESTAR airborne L-band microwave radiometer on a single wet day at the start of the study period produced more accurate model predictions of soil moisture than a standard hydrological initialization with streamflow data over an eight-day soil moisture drydown.

  11. Intercomparisons between passive and active microwave remote sensing, and hydrological modeling for soil moisture (United States)

    Wood, E. F.; Lin, D.-S.; Mancini, M.; Thongs, D.; Troch, P. A.; Jackson, T. J.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Engman, E. T.


    Soil moisture estimations from a distributed hydrological model and two microwave sensors were compared with ground measurements collected during the MAC-HYDRO'90 experiment. The comparison was done with the purpose of evaluating the performance of the hydrological model and examining the limitations of remote sensing techniques used in soil moisture estimation. An image integration technique was used to integrate and analyze rainfall, soil properties, land cover, topography, and remote sensing imagery. Results indicate that the hydrological model and microwave sensors successfully picked up temporal variations of soil moisture and that the spatial soil moisture pattern may be remotely sensed with reasonable accuracy using existing algorithms.

  12. A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach (United States)

    Elshafei, Y.; Sivapalan, M.; Tonts, M.; Hipsey, M. R.


    It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage global freshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature of human-hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system scale. Yet to date, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchment systems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems - and the dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems - has remained elusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines a generic framework for models of socio-hydrology ap