A study of Water flooding modeling for DMFC at cathode channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, Sang Keun; Yoo, Ki Soo; Lee, Dae Keun; Chung, Myung Kyoon

2007-01-01

The present paper addresses the water flooding model validation in cathode channel for DMFC. Water flooding not only reduces DMFC stack performance but also causes O 2 starve that damages membrane at cathode channel. Although the water flooding problem is critical in operating DMFC, it has not been resolved yet since the effect of temperature, H 2 O vapor and liquid partial pressure effects on the H 2 O vapor saturation is very complex. Therefore, the operating feasible range in the dynamic control of DMFC is inevitably narrow. In order to be able to dynamically control the DMFC to prevent water flooding problem at cathode channel, 3D numerical model was validated by comparison with experimental result. We performed numerical simulation for a wide range of Vcell - current density for 1 layer-1 cell DMFC and the results were compared with experimental data. It was found that the 3D simulation model for the DMFC can be used to accurately predict the water flooding at cathode channel

Modeling urban coastal flood severity from crowd-sourced flood reports using Poisson regression and Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2018-04-01

Sea level rise has already caused more frequent and severe coastal flooding and this trend will likely continue. Flood prediction is an essential part of a coastal city's capacity to adapt to and mitigate this growing problem. Complex coastal urban hydrological systems however, do not always lend themselves easily to physically-based flood prediction approaches. This paper presents a method for using a data-driven approach to estimate flood severity in an urban coastal setting using crowd-sourced data, a non-traditional but growing data source, along with environmental observation data. Two data-driven models, Poisson regression and Random Forest regression, are trained to predict the number of flood reports per storm event as a proxy for flood severity, given extensive environmental data (i.e., rainfall, tide, groundwater table level, and wind conditions) as input. The method is demonstrated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 to October 2016. Quality-controlled, crowd-sourced street flooding reports ranging from 1 to 159 per storm event for 45 storm events are used to train and evaluate the models. Random Forest performed better than Poisson regression at predicting the number of flood reports and had a lower false negative rate. From the Random Forest model, total cumulative rainfall was by far the most dominant input variable in predicting flood severity, followed by low tide and lower low tide. These methods serve as a first step toward using data-driven methods for spatially and temporally detailed coastal urban flood prediction.

Flood control design requirements and flood evaluation methods of inland nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ailing; Wang Ping; Zhu Jingxing

2011-01-01

Effect of flooding is one of the key safety factors and environmental factors in inland nuclear power plant sitting. Up to now, the rule of law and standard systems are established for the selection of nuclear power plant location and flood control requirements in China. In this paper flood control standards of China and other countries are introduced. Several inland nuclear power plants are taken as examples to thoroughly discuss the related flood evaluation methods. The suggestions are also put forward in the paper. (authors)

Flood risk control of dams and dykes in middle reach of Huaihe River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhen-kun MA

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that (1 the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; (2 considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and (3 under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.

Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Ootegem, Luc; Verhofstadt, Elsy; Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom

2015-01-01

Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks

Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Ootegem, Luc [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium); SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Verhofstadt, Elsy [SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium)

2015-09-15

Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.

Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

2016-04-01

An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

2 Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flood Routing Analysis on Flood Forecasting Modelling for Kelantan River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Azad Wan Hazdy

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Flood disaster occurs quite frequently in Malaysia and has been categorized as the most threatening natural disaster compared to landslides, hurricanes, tsunami, haze and others. A study by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID show that 9% of land areas in Malaysia are prone to flood which may affect approximately 4.9 million of the population. 2 Dimensional floods routing modelling demonstrate is turning out to be broadly utilized for flood plain display and is an extremely viable device for evaluating flood. Flood propagations can be better understood by simulating the flow and water level by using hydrodynamic modelling. The hydrodynamic flood routing can be recognized by the spatial complexity of the schematization such as 1D model and 2D model. It was found that most of available hydrological models for flood forecasting are more focus on short duration as compared to long duration hydrological model using the Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM. The aim of this paper is to discuss preliminary findings on development of flood forecasting model using Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM for Kelantan river basin. Among the findings discuss in this paper includes preliminary calibrated PDM model, which performed reasonably for the Dec 2014, but underestimated the peak flows. Apart from that, this paper also discusses findings on Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD and flood plain analysis. Flood forecasting is the complex process that begins with an understanding of the geographical makeup of the catchment and knowledge of the preferential regions of heavy rainfall and flood behaviour for the area of responsibility. Therefore, to decreases the uncertainty in the model output, so it is important to increase the complexity of the model.

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model

Science.gov (United States)

Estupina-Borrell, V.; Dartus, D.; Ababou, R.

2006-11-01

Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (M�

The Global Flood Model

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

2012-04-01

Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

Why are decisions in flood disaster management so poorly supported by information from flood models?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leskens, Anne; Brugnach, Marcela Fabiana; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Schuurmans, W.

2014-01-01

Flood simulation models can provide practitioners of Flood Disaster Management with sophisticated estimates of floods. Despite the advantages that flood simulation modeling may provide, experiences have proven that these models are of limited use. Until now, this problem has mainly been investigated

Flood Inundation Modelling in the Kuantan River Basin using 1D-2D Flood Modeller coupled with ASTER-GDEM

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Z. F.; Gisen, J. I.; Akbari, A.

2018-03-01

Topography dataset is an important input in performing flood inundation modelling. However, it is always difficult to obtain high resolution topography that provide accurate elevation information. Fortunately, there are some open source topography datasets available with reasonable resolution such as SRTM and ASTER-GDEM. In Malaysia particularly in Kuantan, the modelling research on the floodplain area is still lacking. This research aims to: a) to investigate the suitability of ASTER-GDEM to be applied in the 1D-2D flood inundation modelling for the Kuantan River Basin; b) to generate flood inundation map for Kuantan river basin. The topography dataset used in this study is ASTER-GDEM to generate physical characteristics of watershed in the basin. It is used to perform rainfall runoff modelling for hydrological studies and to delineate flood inundation area in the Flood Modeller. The results obtained have shown that a 30m resolution ASTER-GDEM is applicable as an input for the 1D-2D flood modelling. The simulated water level in 2013 has NSE of 0.644 and RSME of 1.259. As a conclusion, ASTER-GDEM can be used as one alternative topography datasets for flood inundation modelling. However, the flood level obtained from the hydraulic modelling shows low accuracy at flat urban areas.

The dynamic capacity calculation method and the flood control ability of the Three Gorges Reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shanghong; Jing, Zhu; Yi, Yujun; Wu, Yu; Zhao, Yong

2017-12-01

To evaluate the flood control ability of a river-type reservoir, an accurate simulation method for the flood storage, discharge process, and dynamic capacity of the reservoir is important. As the world's largest reservoir, the storage capacity and flood control capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) has attracted widespread interest and academic debate for nearly 20 years. In this study, a model for calculating the dynamic capacity of a river-type reservoir is established based on data from 394 river cross sections and 2.5-m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data of the TGR area. The storage capacity and flood control capacity of the TGR were analysed based on the scheduling procedures of a normal impoundment period. The results show that the static capacity of the TGR is 43.43 billion m3, the dynamic flood control capacity is 22.45 billion m3, and the maximum floodwater flow regulated by the dynamic capacity at Zhicheng is no more than 67,700 m3/s. This study supply new simulation method and up-to-date high-precision data to discuss the 20 years debate, and the results reveal the TGR design is conservative for flood control according to the Preliminary Design Report of the Three Gorges Project. The dynamic capacity calculation method used here can provide a reference for flood regulation of large river-type reservoirs.

Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Aris Marfai

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

Science.gov (United States)

Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the

Real-Time Flood Control by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty: A Case Study Reservoir in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gökçen Uysal

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Optimal control of reservoirs is a challenging task due to conflicting objectives, complex system structure, and uncertainties in the system. Real time control decisions suffer from streamflow forecast uncertainty. This study aims to use Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts (PSFs having a lead-time up to 48 h as input for the recurrent reservoir operation problem. A related technique for decision making is multi-stage stochastic optimization using scenario trees, referred to as Tree-based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC. Deterministic Streamflow Forecasts (DSFs are provided by applying random perturbations on perfect data. PSFs are synthetically generated from DSFs by a new approach which explicitly presents dynamic uncertainty evolution. We assessed different variables in the generation of stochasticity and compared the results using different scenarios. The developed real-time hourly flood control was applied to a test case which had limited reservoir storage and restricted downstream condition. According to hindcasting closed-loop experiment results, TB-MPC outperforms the deterministic counterpart in terms of decreased downstream flood risk according to different independent forecast scenarios. TB-MPC was also tested considering different number of tree branches, forecast horizons, and different inflow conditions. We conclude that using synthetic PSFs in TB-MPC can provide more robust solutions against forecast uncertainty by resolution of uncertainty in trees.

Building Adjustable Pre-storm Reservoir Flood-control Release Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shun-Nien; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Hsieh, Cheng-Daw

2017-04-01

Typhoons hit Taiwan several times every year, which could cause serious flood disasters. Because mountainous terrains and steep landforms can rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow during typhoon events, rivers cannot be a stable source of water supply. Reservoirs become the most effective floodwater storage facilities for alleviating flood damages in Taiwan. The pre-storm flood-control release can significantly increase reservoir storage capacity available to store floodwaters for reducing downstream flood damage, while the uncertainties of total forecasted rainfalls are very high in different stages of an oncoming typhoon, which may cause the risk of water shortage in the future. This study proposes adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules in three designed operating stages with various hydrological conditions in the Feitsui Reservoir, a pivot reservoir for water supply to Taipei metropolitan in Taiwan, not only to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control and downstream flooding but also to consider water supply. The three operating stages before an oncoming typhoon are defined upon the timings when: (1) typhoon news is issued (3-7days before typhoon hit); (2) the sea warning is issued (2-4 days before typhoon hit); and (3) the land warning is issued (1-2 days before typhoon hit). We simulate 95 historical typhoon events with 3000 initial water levels and build some pre-storm flood-control release rules to adjust the amount of pre-release based on the total forecasted rainfalls at different operating stages. A great number of simulations (68.4 millions) are conducted to extract their major consequences and then build the adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules. Accordingly, given a total forecasted rainfall and a water level, reservoir decision makers can easily identify the corresponding rule to tell the amount of pre-release in any stage. The results show that the proposed adjustable pre-release rules can effectively

Model simulations of potential contribution of the proposed Huangpu Gate to flood control in the Lake Taihu basin of China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hanghui; Liu, Shuguang; Ye, Jianchun; Yeh, Pat J.-F.

2017-10-01

The Lake Taihu basin (36 895 km2), one of the most developed regions in China located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, has experienced increasing flood risk. The largest flood in history occurred in 1999 with a return period estimate of 200 years, considerably larger than the current capacity of the flood defense with a design return period of 50 years. Due to its flat saucer-like terrain, the capacity of the flood control system in this basin depends on flood control infrastructures and peripheral tidal conditions. The Huangpu River, an important river of the basin connecting Lake Taihu upstream and Yangtze River estuaries downstream, drains two-fifths of the entire basin. Since the water level in the Huangpu River is significantly affected by the high tide conditions in estuaries, constructing an estuary gate is considered an effective solution for flood mitigation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the potential contributions of the proposed Huangpu Gate to the flood control capacity of the basin. To achieve this goal, five different scenarios of flooding conditions and the associated gate operations are considered by using numerical model simulations. Results of quantitative analyses show that the Huangpu Gate is effective for evacuating floodwaters. It can help to reduce both peak values and duration of high water levels in Lake Taihu to benefit surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River. The contribution of the gate to the flood control capacity is closely associated with its operation modes and duration. For the maximum potential contribution of the gate, the net outflow at the proposed site is increased by 52 %. The daily peak level is decreased by a maximum of 0.12 m in Lake Taihu, by maxima of 0.26-0.37 and 0.46-0.60 m in the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River, respectively, and by 0.05-0.39 m in the surrounding areas depending on the local topography. It is concluded that the proposed Huangpu Gate can reduce

Validation of individual and aggregate global flood hazard models for two major floods in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Trigg, M.; Bernhofen, M.; Whyman, C.

2017-12-01

A recent intercomparison of global flood hazard models undertaken by the Global Flood Partnership shows that there is an urgent requirement to undertake more validation of the models against flood observations. As part of the intercomparison, the aggregated model dataset resulting from the project was provided as open access data. We compare the individual and aggregated flood extent output from the six global models and test these against two major floods in the African Continent within the last decade, namely severe flooding on the Niger River in Nigeria in 2012, and on the Zambezi River in Mozambique in 2007. We test if aggregating different number and combination of models increases model fit to the observations compared with the individual model outputs. We present results that illustrate some of the challenges of comparing imperfect models with imperfect observations and also that of defining the probability of a real event in order to test standard model output probabilities. Finally, we propose a collective set of open access validation flood events, with associated observational data and descriptions that provide a standard set of tests across different climates and hydraulic conditions.

33 CFR 203.42 - Inspection of non-Federal flood control works.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... PROCEDURES Rehabilitation Assistance for Flood Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps Rehabilitation and Inspection Program § 203.42 Inspection of non-Federal flood control works. (a) Required... will conduct an IEI to determine if the flood control work meets minimum engineering and maintenance...

Influence of Flood Detention Capability in Flood Prevention for Flood Disaster of Depression Area

OpenAIRE

Chia Lin Chan; Yi Ju Yang; Chih Chin Yang

2011-01-01

Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall freque...

Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

2017-04-01

Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

Polders as active element of flood control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zilavy, M.

2004-01-01

In this presentation author deals with use of the polders as active element of flood control on the example Kysuca River and Podluzianka River (Slovakia). It was concluded that it is necessary: - dense network of rain gauge stations; - network of water level recorders; revision of design process for hydraulic objects - degree of safety; changes in legislation - permission for construction in flood-plains; maintenance of channel capacity; early flood forecasting - forecasting and warning service; river training works and maintenance; design of retention areas; preparation of retention areas prior to flood propagation

THE FLOOD RISK IN THE LOWER GIANH RIVER: MODELLING AND FIELD VERIFICATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NGUYEN H. D.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Problems associated with flood risk definitely represent a highly topical issue in Vietnam. The case of the lower Gianh River in the central area of Vietnam, with a watershed area of 353 km2, is particularly interesting. In this area, periodically subject to flood risk, the scientific question is strongly linked to risk management. In addition, flood risk is the consequence of the hydrological hazard of an event and the damages related to this event. For this reason, our approach is based on hydrodynamic modelling using Mike Flood to simulate the runoff during a flood event. Unfortunately the data in the studied area are quite limited. Our computation of the flood risk is based on a three-step modelling process, using rainfall data coming from 8 stations, cross sections, the topographic map and the land-use map. The first step consists of creating a 1-D model using Mike 11, in order to simulate the runoff in the minor river bed. In the second step, we use Mike 21 to create a 2-D model to simulate the runoff in the flood plain. The last step allows us to couple the two models in order to precisely describe the variables for the hazard analysis in the flood plain (the water level, the speed, the extent of the flooding. Moreover the model is calibrated and verified using observational data of the water level at hydrologic stations and field control data (on the one hand flood height measurements, on the other hand interviews with the community and with the local councillors. We then generate GIS maps in order to improve flood hazard management, which allows us to create flood hazard maps by coupling the flood plain map and the runoff speed map. Our results show that: the flood peak, caused by typhoon Nari, reached more than 6 m on October 16th 2013 at 4 p.m. (its area was extended by 149 km². End that the typhoon constitutes an extreme flood hazard for 11.39%, very high for 10.60%, high for 30.79%, medium for 31.91% and a light flood hazard for 15

Flood Progression Modelling and Impact Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Nickerson, B.

People living in the lower valley of the St. John River, New Brunswick, Canada, frequently experience flooding when the river overflows its banks during spring ice melt and rain. To better prepare the population of New Brunswick for extreme flooding, we developed a new flood prediction model...

Optimal Control of Polymer Flooding Based on Maximum Principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Lei

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Polymer flooding is one of the most important technologies for enhanced oil recovery (EOR. In this paper, an optimal control model of distributed parameter systems (DPSs for polymer injection strategies is established, which involves the performance index as maximum of the profit, the governing equations as the fluid flow equations of polymer flooding, and the inequality constraint as the polymer concentration limitation. To cope with the optimal control problem (OCP of this DPS, the necessary conditions for optimality are obtained through application of the calculus of variations and Pontryagin’s weak maximum principle. A gradient method is proposed for the computation of optimal injection strategies. The numerical results of an example illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A high-resolution global flood hazard model

Science.gov (United States)

Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

2015-09-01

Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

2014-12-01

In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

Challenges of Modeling Flood Risk at Large Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Guin, J.; Simic, M.; Rowe, J.

2009-04-01

Flood risk management is a major concern for many nations and for the insurance sector in places where this peril is insured. A prerequisite for risk management, whether in the public sector or in the private sector is an accurate estimation of the risk. Mitigation measures and traditional flood management techniques are most successful when the problem is viewed at a large regional scale such that all inter-dependencies in a river network are well understood. From an insurance perspective the jury is still out there on whether flood is an insurable peril. However, with advances in modeling techniques and computer power it is possible to develop models that allow proper risk quantification at the scale suitable for a viable insurance market for flood peril. In order to serve the insurance market a model has to be event-simulation based and has to provide financial risk estimation that forms the basis for risk pricing, risk transfer and risk management at all levels of insurance industry at large. In short, for a collection of properties, henceforth referred to as a portfolio, the critical output of the model is an annual probability distribution of economic losses from a single flood occurrence (flood event) or from an aggregation of all events in any given year. In this paper, the challenges of developing such a model are discussed in the context of Great Britain for which a model has been developed. The model comprises of several, physically motivated components so that the primary attributes of the phenomenon are accounted for. The first component, the rainfall generator simulates a continuous series of rainfall events in space and time over thousands of years, which are physically realistic while maintaining the statistical properties of rainfall at all locations over the model domain. A physically based runoff generation module feeds all the rivers in Great Britain, whose total length of stream links amounts to about 60,000 km. A dynamical flow routing

Feedbacks among Floods, Pioneer Woody Vegetation, and Channel Change in Sand-Bed Rivers: Insights from Field Studies of Controlled Flood Releases and Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wilcox, A. C.; Shafroth, P. B.; Lightbody, A.; Stella, J. C.; Bywater-Reyes, S.; Kiu, L.; Skorko, K.

2012-04-01

To investigate feedbacks between flow, geomorphic processes, and pioneer riparian vegetation in sand-bed rivers, we are combining field, hydraulic modeling, and laboratory simulations. Field studies have examined the response of woody riparian seedlings and channel morphology to prescribed dam-released floods that have been designed in part to maintain a native riparian woodland system on the Bill Williams River, Arizona, USA. Through monitoring of floods over a 7-year period, we have observed temporal and spatial variations in channel response. Floods have produced geomorphic and vegetation responses that varied with distance downstream of a dam, with scour and associated seedling mortality closer to the dam and aggradation and burial-induced mortality in a downstream reach with greater sediment supply. We also have observed that as vegetation grows beyond the seedling stage, its stabilizing effect on bars and its drag effect on flow progressively increases, such that floods of similar sizes but at different times may produce markedly different downstream responses as a function of vegetation characteristics. We also observed greater mortality among nonnative Tamarix spp. (tamarisk) seedlings than among native Salix gooddingii (Goodding's willow) seedlings, likely as a result of the greater first-year growth of willow relative to tamarisk. Combining field observations with modeling predictions of local hydraulics for the flood events we have studied is being used to draw linkages between hydraulics, channel change, and plant response at the patch and bar scale. In addition, mechanistic linkages are being examined using a field-scale laboratory stream channel, where seedlings of Tamarix spp. (tamarisk) and Populus fremontii (cottonwood) were planted and subjected to floods with varying sediment feed rate and plant configurations. The floods conveyed by our model channel were generally insufficient to scour the woody seedlings we planted, but changes in bar size and

Urban flood simulation based on the SWMM model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Jiang

2015-05-01

Full Text Available China is the nation with the fastest urbanization in the past decades which has caused serious urban flooding. Flood forecasting is regarded as one of the important flood mitigation methods, and is widely used in catchment flood mitigation, but is not widely used in urban flooding mitigation. This paper, employing the SWMM model, one of the widely used urban flood planning and management models, simulates the urban flooding of Dongguan City in the rapidly urbanized southern China. SWMM is first set up based on the DEM, digital map and underground pipeline network, then parameters are derived based on the properties of the subcatchment and the storm sewer conduits; the parameter sensitivity analysis shows the parameter robustness. The simulated results show that with the 1-year return period precipitation, the studied area will have no flooding, but for the 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-year return period precipitation, the studied area will be inundated. The results show the SWMM model is promising for urban flood forecasting, but as it has no surface runoff routing, the urban flooding could not be forecast precisely.

A Comparison of Flood Control Standards for Reservoir Engineering for Different Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minglei Ren

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Across the globe, flood control standards for reservoir engineering appear different due to various deciding factors such as flood features, society, economy, culture, morality, politics, and technology resources, etc. This study introduces an in-depth comparison of flood control standards for reservoir engineering for different countries. After the comparison and analysis, it is concluded that the determination of flood control standards is related to engineering grade, dam type, dam height, and the hazard to downstream after dam-breaking, etc. Each country should adopt practical flood control standards according to the characteristics of local reservoir engineering. The constitutive flood control standards should retain certain flexibility in the basis of constraint force. This review could offer a reference for developing countries in the enactment of flood control standards for reservoir engineering.

Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

2011-12-01

The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

Dealing with rainfall forecast uncertainties in real-time flood control along the Demer river

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vermuyten Evert

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Real-time Model Predictive Control (MPC of hydraulic structures strongly reduces flood consequences under ideal circumstances. The performance of such flood control may, however, be significantly affected by uncertainties. This research quantifies the influence of rainfall forecast uncertainties and related uncertainties in the catchment rainfall-runoff discharges on the control performance for the Herk river case study in Belgium. To limit the model computational times, a fast conceptual model is applied. It is calibrated to a full hydrodynamic river model. A Reduced Genetic Algorithm is used as optimization method. Next to the analysis of the impact of the rainfall forecast uncertainties on the control performance, a Multiple Model Predictive Control (MMPC approach is tested to reduce this impact. Results show that the deterministic MPC-RGA outperforms the MMPC and that it is inherently robust against rainfall forecast uncertainties due to its receding horizon strategy.

Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

2017-04-01

Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

Flash flood modelling for ungauged catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Garambois, P.-A.; Roux, H.; Larnier, K.; Dartus, D.

2012-04-01

Flash flood is a very intense and quick hydrologic response of a catchment to rainfall. This phenomenon has a high spatial-temporal variability as its generating storm, often hitting small catchments (few km2). Data collected by (Gaume et al. 2009) about 500 flash floods over the last 50 years showed that they could occur everywhere in Europe and more often in the Mediterranean regions, Alpine regions and continental Europe. Given the small spatial-temporal scales and high variability of flash floods, their prediction remains a hard exercise as the necessary data are often scarce. Flash flood prediction on ungauged catchments is one of the challenges of hydrological modelling as defined by (Sivapalan et al. 2003). Several studies have been headed up with the MARINE model (Modélisation de l'Anticipation du Ruissellement et des Inondations pour des évèNements Extrêmes) for the Gard region (France), (Roux et al. 2011), (Castaings et al. 2009). This physically based spatially distributed rainfall runoff model is dedicated to flash flood prediction. The study aims at finding a methodology for flash flood prediction at ungauged locations in the Cévennes-Vivarais region in particular. The regionalization method is based on multiple calibrations on gauged catchments in order to extract model structures (model + parameter values) for each catchment. Several mathematical methods (multiple regressions, transfer functions, krigging…) will then be tested to calculate a regional parameter set. The study also investigates the usability of additional hydrologic indices at different time scales to constrain model predictions from parameters obtained using these indices, and this independently of the model considered. These hydrologic indices gather information on hydrograph shape or catchment dynamic for instance. Results explaining global catchments behaviour are expected that way. The spatial-temporal variability of storms is also described through indices and linked with

Nested 1D-2D approach for urban surface flood modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Murla, Damian; Willems, Patrick

2015-04-01

Floods in urban areas as a consequence of sewer capacity exceedance receive increased attention because of trends in urbanization (increased population density and impermeability of the surface) and climate change. Despite the strong recent developments in numerical modeling of water systems, urban surface flood modeling is still a major challenge. Whereas very advanced and accurate flood modeling systems are in place and operation by many river authorities in support of flood management along rivers, this is not yet the case in urban water management. Reasons include the small scale of the urban inundation processes, the need to have very high resolution topographical information available, and the huge computational demands. Urban drainage related inundation modeling requires a 1D full hydrodynamic model of the sewer network to be coupled with a 2D surface flood model. To reduce the computational times, 0D (flood cones), 1D/quasi-2D surface flood modeling approaches have been developed and applied in some case studies. In this research, a nested 1D/2D hydraulic model has been developed for an urban catchment at the city of Gent (Belgium), linking the underground sewer (minor system) with the overland surface (major system). For the overland surface flood modelling, comparison was made of 0D, 1D/quasi-2D and full 2D approaches. The approaches are advanced by considering nested 1D-2D approaches, including infiltration in the green city areas, and allowing the effects of surface storm water storage to be simulated. An optimal nested combination of three different mesh resolutions was identified; based on a compromise between precision and simulation time for further real-time flood forecasting, warning and control applications. Main streets as mesh zones together with buildings as void regions constitute one of these mesh resolution (3.75m2 - 15m2); they have been included since they channel most of the flood water from the manholes and they improve the accuracy of

The framework of a UAS-aided flash flood modeling system for coastal regions

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, H.; Xu, H.

2016-02-01

Flash floods cause severe economic damage and are one of the leading causes of fatalities connected with natural disasters in the Gulf Coast region. Current flash flood modeling systems rely on empirical hydrological models driven by precipitation estimates only. Although precipitation is the driving factor for flash floods, soil moisture, urban drainage system and impervious surface have been recognized to have significant impacts on the development of flash floods. We propose a new flash flooding modeling system that integrates 3-D hydrological simulation with satellite and multi-UAS observations. It will have three advantages over existing modeling systems. First, it will incorporate 1-km soil moisture data through integrating satellite images from European SMOS mission and NASA's SMAP mission. The utilization of high-resolution satellite images will provide essential information to determine antecedent soil moisture condition, which is an essential control on flood generation. Second, this system is able to adjust flood forecasting based on real-time inundation information collected by multi-UAS. A group of UAS will be deployed during storm events to capture the changing extent of flooded areas and water depth at multiple critical locations simultaneously. Such information will be transmitted to a hydrological model to validate and improve flood simulation. Third, the backbone of this system is a state-of-the-art 3-D hydrological model that assimilates the hydrological information from satellites and multi-UAS. The model is able to address surface water-groundwater interactions and reflect the effects of various infrastructures. Using Web-GIS technologies, the modeling results will be available online as interactive flood maps accessible to the public. To support the development and verification of this modeling system, surface and subsurface hydrological observations will be conducted in a number of small watersheds in the Coastal Bend region. We envision this

Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renyi Cao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

Tracing the value of data for flood loss modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schröter Kai

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flood loss modelling is associated with considerable uncertainty. If prediction uncertainty of flood loss models is large, the reliability of model outcomes is questionable, and thus challenges the practical usefulness. A key problem in flood loss estimation is the transfer of models to geographical regions and to flood events that may differ from the ones used for model development. Variations in local characteristics and continuous system changes require regional adjustments and continuous updating with current evidence. However, acquiring data on damage influencing factors is usually very costly. Therefore, it is of relevance to assess the value of additional data in terms of model performance improvement. We use empirical flood loss data on direct damage to residential buildings available from computer aided telephone interviews that were compiled after major floods in Germany. This unique data base allows us to trace the changes in predictive model performance by incrementally extending the data base used to derive flood loss models. Two models are considered: a uni-variable stage damage function and RF-FLEMO, a multi-variable probabilistic model approach using Random Forests. Additional data are useful to improve model predictive performance and increase model reliability, however the gains also seem to depend on the model approach.

Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

Science.gov (United States)

Aksoy, Hafzullah; Sadan Ozgur Kirca, Veysel; Burgan, Halil Ibrahim; Kellecioglu, Dorukhan

2016-05-01

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses) wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS) software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Aksoy

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Geographic Information Systems (GIS are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

Indirect Damage of Urban Flooding: Investigation of Flood-Induced Traffic Congestion Using Dynamic Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingxuan Zhu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In many countries, industrialization has led to rapid urbanization. Increased frequency of urban flooding is one consequence of the expansion of urban areas which can seriously affect the productivity and livelihoods of urban residents. Therefore, it is of vital importance to study the effects of rainfall and urban flooding on traffic congestion and driver behavior. In this study, a comprehensive method to analyze the influence of urban flooding on traffic congestion was developed. First, a flood simulation was conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of flooding based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM and TELAMAC-2D. Second, an agent-based model (ABM was used to simulate driver behavior during a period of urban flooding, and a car-following model was established. Finally, in order to study the mechanisms behind how urban flooding affects traffic congestion, the impact of flooding on urban traffic was investigated based on a case study of the urban area of Lishui, China, covering an area of 4.4 km2. It was found that for most events, two-hour rainfall has a certain impact on traffic congestion over a five-hour period, with the greatest impact during the hour following the cessation of the rain. Furthermore, the effects of rainfall with 10- and 20-year return periods were found to be similar and small, whereas the effects with a 50-year return period were obvious. Based on a combined analysis of hydrology and transportation, the proposed methods and conclusions could help to reduce traffic congestion during flood seasons, to facilitate early warning and risk management of urban flooding, and to assist users in making informed decisions regarding travel.

Conjunctively optimizing flash flood control and water quality in urban water reservoirs by model predictive control and dynamic emulation

Science.gov (United States)

Galelli, Stefano; Goedbloed, Albert; Schmitter, Petra; Castelletti, Andrea

2014-05-01

Urban water reservoirs are a viable adaptation option to account for increasing drinking water demand of urbanized areas as they allow storage and re-use of water that is normally lost. In addition, the direct availability of freshwater reduces pumping costs and diversifies the portfolios of drinking water supply. Yet, these benefits have an associated twofold cost. Firstly, the presence of large, impervious areas increases the hydraulic efficiency of urban catchments, with short time of concentration, increased runoff rates, losses of infiltration and baseflow, and higher risk of flash floods. Secondly, the high concentration of nutrients and sediments characterizing urban discharges is likely to cause water quality problems. In this study we propose a new control scheme combining Model Predictive Control (MPC), hydro-meteorological forecasts and dynamic model emulation to design real-time operating policies that conjunctively optimize water quantity and quality targets. The main advantage of this scheme stands in its capability of exploiting real-time hydro-meteorological forecasts, which are crucial in such fast-varying systems. In addition, the reduced computational requests of the MPC scheme allows coupling it with dynamic emulators of water quality processes. The approach is demonstrated on Marina Reservoir, a multi-purpose reservoir located in the heart of Singapore and characterized by a large, highly urbanized catchment with a short (i.e. approximately one hour) time of concentration. Results show that the MPC scheme, coupled with a water quality emulator, provides a good compromise between different operating objectives, namely flood risk reduction, drinking water supply and salinity control. Finally, the scheme is used to assess the effect of source control measures (e.g. green roofs) aimed at restoring the natural hydrological regime of Marina Reservoir catchment.

A Socio-hydrological Flood Model for the Elbe

Science.gov (United States)

Barendrecht, M.; Viglione, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent such phenomena and the feedbacks leading to them. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management when they are applied to real world case studies. They can help develop hypotheses about the phenomena that have been observed in the case study of interest, by describing the interactions between the social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, that play a role in the system. We discuss the case of Dresden where the 2002 flood, which was preceded by a period without floods but was less severe, resulted in a higher damage than the 2013 flood, which was preceded by the 2002 flood and a couple of less severe floods. The lower damage in 2013 may be explained by the fact that society has become aware of the flood risk and has adapted to it. Developing and applying a socio-hydrological flood model to the case of Dresden can help discover whether it is possible that the lower damage is caused by an adaptation effect, or if there are other feedbacks that can explain the observed phenomenon.

1D and 2D urban dam-break flood modelling in Istanbul, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Ozdemir, Hasan; Neal, Jeffrey; Bates, Paul; Döker, Fatih

2014-05-01

Urban flood events are increasing in frequency and severity as a consequence of several factors such as reduced infiltration capacities due to continued watershed development, increased construction in flood prone areas due to population growth, the possible amplification of rainfall intensity due to climate change, sea level rise which threatens coastal development, and poorly engineered flood control infrastructure (Gallegos et al., 2009). These factors will contribute to increased urban flood risk in the future, and as a result improved modelling of urban flooding according to different causative factor has been identified as a research priority (Gallegos et al., 2009; Ozdemir et al. 2013). The flooding disaster caused by dam failures is always a threat against lives and properties especially in urban environments. Therefore, the prediction of dynamics of dam-break flows plays a vital role in the forecast and evaluation of flooding disasters, and is of long-standing interest for researchers. Flooding occurred on the Ayamama River (Istanbul-Turkey) due to high intensity rainfall and dam-breaching of Ata Pond in 9th September 2009. The settlements, industrial areas and transportation system on the floodplain of the Ayamama River were inundated. Therefore, 32 people were dead and millions of Euros economic loses were occurred. The aim of this study is 1 and 2-Dimensional flood modelling of the Ata Pond breaching using HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-Roe models and comparison of the model results using the real flood extent. The HEC-RAS model solves the full 1-D Saint Venant equations for unsteady open channel flow whereas LISFLOOD-Roe is the 2-D shallow water model which calculates the flow according to the complete Saint Venant formulation (Villanueva and Wright, 2006; Neal et al., 2011). The model consists a shock capturing Godunov-type scheme based on the Roe Riemann solver (Roe, 1981). 3 m high resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM), natural characteristics of the pond

Assessment of static flood modeling techniques: application to contrasting marshes flooded during Xynthia (western France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. F. Breilh

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This study aims to assess the performance of raster-based flood modeling methods on a wide diversity of coastal marshes. These methods are applied to the flooding associated with the storm Xynthia, which severely hit the western coast of France in February 2010. Static and semi-dynamic methods are assessed using a combination of LiDAR data, post-storm delineation of flooded areas and sea levels originating from both tide gauge measurements and storm surge modeling. Static methods are applied to 27 marshes showing a wide geomorphological diversity. It appears that these methods are suitable for marshes with a small distance between the coastline and the landward boundary of the marsh, which causes these marshes to flood rapidly. On the contrary, these methods overpredict flooded areas for large marshes where the distance between the coastline and the landward boundary of the marsh is large, because the flooding cannot be considered as instantaneous. In this case, semi-dynamic methods based on surge overflowing volume calculations can improve the flooding prediction significantly. This study suggests that static and semi-dynamic flood modeling methods can be attractive and quickly deployed to rapidly produce predictive flood maps of vulnerable areas under certain conditions, particularly for small distances between the coastline and the landward boundary of the low-lying coastal area.

Modeling flood events for long-term stability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

1985-01-01

The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

2018-01-01

Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

The Importance of Precise Digital Elevation Models (DEM) in Modelling Floods

Science.gov (United States)

Demir, Gokben; Akyurek, Zuhal

2016-04-01

Digital elevation Models (DEM) are important inputs for topography for the accurate modelling of floodplain hydrodynamics. Floodplains have a key role as natural retarding pools which attenuate flood waves and suppress flood peaks. GPS, LIDAR and bathymetric surveys are well known surveying methods to acquire topographic data. It is not only time consuming and expensive to obtain topographic data through surveying but also sometimes impossible for remote areas. In this study it is aimed to present the importance of accurate modelling of topography for flood modelling. The flood modelling for Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is done. One of the DEM is obtained from the point observations retrieved from 1/5000 scaled orthophotos and 1/1000 scaled point elevation data from field surveys at x-sections. The river banks are corrected by using the orthophotos and elevation values. This DEM is named as scaled DEM. The other DEM is obtained from bathymetric surveys. 296 538 number of points and the left/right bank slopes were used to construct the DEM having 1 m spatial resolution and this DEM is named as base DEM. Two DEMs were compared by using 27 x-sections. The maximum difference at thalweg of the river bed is 2m and the minimum difference is 20 cm between two DEMs. The channel conveyance capacity in base DEM is larger than the one in scaled DEM and floodplain is modelled in detail in base DEM. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2- dimensional shallow water flow modelling. The model by using two DEMs were calibrated for a flood event (July 9, 2012). The roughness is considered as the calibration parameter. From comparison of input hydrograph at the upstream of the river and output hydrograph at the downstream of the river, the attenuation is obtained as 91% and 84% for the base DEM and scaled DEM, respectively. The time lag in hydrographs does not show any difference for two DEMs and it is obtained as 3 hours. Maximum flood extents differ for the two DEMs

Flooding Experiments and Modeling for Improved Reactor Safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solmos, M.; Hogan, K.J.; VIerow, K.

2008-01-01

Countercurrent two-phase flow and 'flooding' phenomena in light water reactor systems are being investigated experimentally and analytically to improve reactor safety of current and future reactors. The aspects that will be better clarified are the effects of condensation and tube inclination on flooding in large diameter tubes. The current project aims to improve the level of understanding of flooding mechanisms and to develop an analysis model for more accurate evaluations of flooding in the pressurizer surge line of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Interest in flooding has recently increased because Countercurrent Flow Limitation (CCFL) in the AP600 pressurizer surge line can affect the vessel refill rate following a small break LOCA and because analysis of hypothetical severe accidents with the current flooding models in reactor safety codes shows that these models represent the largest uncertainty in analysis of steam generator tube creep rupture. During a hypothetical station blackout without auxiliary feedwater recovery, should the hot leg become voided, the pressurizer liquid will drain to the hot leg and flooding may occur in the surge line. The flooding model heavily influences the pressurizer emptying rate and the potential for surge line structural failure due to overheating and creep rupture. The air-water test results in vertical tubes are presented in this paper along with a semi-empirical correlation for the onset of flooding. The unique aspects of the study include careful experimentation on large-diameter tubes and an integrated program in which air-water testing provides benchmark knowledge and visualization data from which to conduct steam-water testing

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

2017-11-17

Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP flood model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decharme, B.; Alkama, R.; Faroux, S.; Douville, H. [GAME-CNRM/CNRS - Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Papa, F. [NOAA-CREST, City College of New York, New York, NY (United States); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement IRD-LEGOS, Toulouse (France); Prigent, C. [CNRS/Laboratoire d' Etudes du Rayonnement et de la Matiere en Astrophysique, Observatoire de Paris, Paris (France)

2012-04-15

This study presents an off-line global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP hydrological model including a two-way flood scheme. The flood dynamics is indeed described through the daily coupling between the ISBA land surface model and the TRIP river routing model including a prognostic flood reservoir. This reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the critical river bankfull height and vice versa. The flood interacts with the soil hydrology through infiltration and with the overlying atmosphere through precipitation interception and free water surface evaporation. The model is evaluated over a relatively long period (1986-2006) at 1 resolution using the Princeton University 3-hourly atmospheric forcing. Four simulations are performed in order to assess the model sensitivity to the river bankfull height. The evaluation is made against satellite-derived global inundation estimates as well as in situ river discharge observations at 122 gauging stations. First, the results show a reasonable simulation of the global distribution of simulated floodplains when compared to satellite-derived estimates. At basin scale, the comparison reveals some discrepancies, both in terms of climatology and interannual variability, but the results remain acceptable for a simple large-scale model. In addition, the simulated river discharges are improved in term of efficiency scores for more than 50% of the 122 stations and deteriorated for 4% only. Two mechanisms mainly explain this positive impact: an increase in evapotranspiration that limits the annual discharge overestimation found when flooding is not taking into account and a smoothed river peak flow when the floodplain storage is significant. Finally, the sensitivity experiments suggest that the river bankfull depth is potentially tunable according to the river discharge scores to control the accuracy of the simulated flooded areas and its related increase in land surface evaporation. Such a tuning could be relevant at least for climate

LiDAR and IFSAR-Based Flood Inundation Model Estimates for Flood-Prone Areas of Afghanistan

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, W. C.; Goldade, M. M.; Kastens, J.; Dobbs, K. E.; Macpherson, G. L.

2014-12-01

Extreme flood events are not unusual in semi-arid to hyper-arid regions of the world, and Afghanistan is no exception. Recent flashfloods and flashflood-induced landslides took nearly 100 lives and destroyed or damaged nearly 2000 homes in 12 villages within Guzargah-e-Nur district of Baghlan province in northeastern Afghanistan. With available satellite imagery, flood-water inundation estimation can be accomplished remotely, thereby providing a means to reduce the impact of such flood events by improving shared situational awareness during major flood events. Satellite orbital considerations, weather, cost, data licensing restrictions, and other issues can often complicate the acquisition of appropriately timed imagery. Given the need for tools to supplement imagery where not available, complement imagery when it is available, and bridge the gap between imagery based flood mapping and traditional hydrodynamic modeling approaches, we have developed a topographic floodplain model (FLDPLN), which has been used to identify and map river valley floodplains with elevation data ranging from 90-m SRTM to 1-m LiDAR. Floodplain "depth to flood" (DTF) databases generated by FLDPLN are completely seamless and modular. FLDPLN has been applied in Afghanistan to flood-prone areas along the northern and southern flanks of the Hindu Kush mountain range to generate a continuum of 1-m increment flood-event models up to 10 m in depth. Elevation data used in this application of FLDPLN included high-resolution, drone-acquired LiDAR (~1 m) and IFSAR (5 m; INTERMAP). Validation of the model has been accomplished using the best available satellite-derived flood inundation maps, such as those issued by Unitar's Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). Results provide a quantitative approach to evaluating the potential risk to urban/village infrastructure as well as to irrigation systems, agricultural fields and archaeological sites.

Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

A Participatory Modeling Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model in Nuevo Leon, Mexico for the 2010 Hurricane Alex Flood Event

Science.gov (United States)

Baish, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Payan, J. G.; Robles-Morua, A.; Basile, G. M.

2011-12-01

A distributed hydrologic model can help bring consensus among diverse stakeholders in regional flood planning by producing quantifiable sets of alternative futures. This value is acute in areas with high uncertainties in hydrologic conditions and sparse observations. In this study, we conduct an application of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the Santa Catarina basin of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, where Hurricane Alex in July 2010 led to catastrophic flooding of the capital city of Monterrey. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available information on the regional topography, land cover, and soils obtained from Mexican government agencies or analysis of remotely-sensed imagery from MODIS and ASTER. Furthermore, we developed meteorological forcing for the flood event based on multiple data sources, including three local gauge networks, satellite-based estimates from TRMM and PERSIANN, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Remotely-sensed data allowed us to quantify rainfall distributions in the upland, rural portions of the Santa Catarina that are sparsely populated and ungauged. Rural areas had significant contributions to the flood event and as a result were considered by stakeholders for flood control measures, including new reservoirs and upland vegetation management. Participatory modeling workshops with the stakeholders revealed a disconnect between urban and rural populations in regard to understanding the hydrologic conditions of the flood event and the effectiveness of existing and potential flood control measures. Despite these challenges, the use of the distributed flood forecasts developed within this participatory framework facilitated building consensus among diverse stakeholders and exploring alternative futures in the basin.

Top flooding modeling with MAAP4 code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunet-Thibault, E.; Marguet, S.

2006-01-01

An engineering top flooding model was developed in MAAP4.04d.4, the severe accident code used in EDF, to simulate the thermal-hydraulic phenomena that should take place if emergency core cooling (ECC) water was injected in hot leg during quenching. In the framework of the ISTC (International Science and Technology Centre), a top flooding test was proposed in the PARAMETER facility (Podolsk, Russia). The MAAP calculation of the PARAMETER top flooding test is presented in this paper. A comparison between top and bottom flooding was made on the bundle test geometry. According to this study, top flooding appears to cool quickly and effectively the upper plenum internals. (author)

Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

2016-04-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using Impulse Control Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Kort, Peter; Prskawetz, Alexia

2017-04-01

Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides a partial equilibrium model which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory to solve the model analytically and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. Firms always invest in flood defense. The investment increases the higher the flood risk and the more firms also value the future, i.e. the more sustainable they plan. Investments in production capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic situations have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to accrue higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial production capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed production capital.

33 CFR 203.50 - Nonstructural alternatives to rehabilitation of flood control works.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... rehabilitation of flood control works. 203.50 Section 203.50 Navigation and Navigable Waters CORPS OF ENGINEERS... DISASTER PROCEDURES Rehabilitation Assistance for Flood Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps Rehabilitation and Inspection Program § 203.50 Nonstructural alternatives to rehabilitation...

Reconstruction of the 1945 Wieringermeer Flood

Science.gov (United States)

Hoes, O. A. C.; Hut, R. W.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Boomgaard, M.

2013-03-01

The present state-of-the-art in flood risk assessment focuses on breach models, flood propagation models, and economic modelling of flood damage. However, models need to be validated with real data to avoid erroneous conclusions. Such reference data can either be historic data, or can be obtained from controlled experiments. The inundation of the Wieringermeer polder in the Netherlands in April 1945 is one of the few examples for which sufficient historical information is available. The objective of this article is to compare the flood simulation with flood data from 1945. The context, the breach growth process and the flood propagation are explained. Key findings for current flood risk management addresses the importance of the drainage canal network during the inundation of a polder, and the uncertainty that follows from not knowing the breach growth parameters. This case study shows that historical floods provide valuable data for the validation of models and reveal lessons that are applicable in current day flood risk management.

18 CFR 1304.407 - Development within flood control storage zones of TVA reservoirs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... flood control storage zones of TVA reservoirs. 1304.407 Section 1304.407 Conservation of Power and Water... documentation related to flood control storage, provided the loss of flood control storage caused by the project... control storage. If this determination can be made, the applicant must then demonstrate how the loss of...

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schellen, H.L.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Blades, N.

2014-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Blades, N.; Mahdavi, A.; Mertens, B.

2013-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Hospital infection prevention and control issues relevant to extensive floods.

Science.gov (United States)

Apisarnthanarak, Anucha; Mundy, Linda M; Khawcharoenporn, Thana; Glen Mayhall, C

2013-02-01

The devastating clinical and economic implications of floods exemplify the need for effective global infection prevention and control (IPC) strategies for natural disasters. Reopening of hospitals after excessive flooding requires a balance between meeting the medical needs of the surrounding communities and restoration of a safe hospital environment. Postflood hospital preparedness plans are a key issue for infection control epidemiologists, healthcare providers, patients, and hospital administrators. We provide recent IPC experiences related to reopening of a hospital after extensive black-water floods necessitated hospital closures in Thailand and the United States. These experiences provide a foundation for the future design, execution, and analysis of black-water flood preparedness plans by IPC stakeholders.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Combining Satellite Measurements and Numerical Flood Prediction Models to Save Lives and Property from Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh, F.; Garambois, P. A.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

Floods are considered the major natural threats to human societies across all continents. Consequences of floods in highly populated areas are more dramatic with losses of human lives and substantial property damage. This risk is projected to increase with the effects of climate change, particularly sea-level rise, increasing storm frequencies and intensities and increasing population and economic assets in such urban watersheds. Despite the advances in computational resources and modeling techniques, significant gaps exist in predicting complex processes and accurately representing the initial state of the system. Improving flood prediction models and data assimilation chains through satellite has become an absolute priority to produce accurate flood forecasts with sufficient lead times. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the benefits of the Surface Water Ocean Topography SWOT satellite data from a flood prediction perspective. The near real time methodology is based on combining satellite data from a simulator that mimics the future SWOT data, numerical models, high resolution elevation data and real-time local measurement in the New York/New Jersey area.

Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

2007-01-01

In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

Investigation of flood routing by a dynamic wave model in trapezoidal channels

Science.gov (United States)

Sulistyono, B. A.; Wiryanto, L. H.

2017-08-01

The problems of flood wave propagation, in bodies of waters, cause by intense rains or breaking of control structures, represent a great challenge in the mathematical modeling processes. This research concerns about the development and application of a mathematical model based on the Saint Venant's equations, to study the behavior of the propagation of a flood wave in trapezoidal channels. In these equations, the momentum equation transforms to partial differential equation which has two parameters related to cross-sectional area and discharge of the channel. These new formulas have been solved by using an explicit finite difference scheme. In computation procedure, after computing the discharge from the momentum equation, the cross-sectional area will be obtained from the continuity equation for a given point of channel. To evaluate the behavior of the control variables, several scenarios for the main channel as well as for flood waves are considered and different simulations are performed. The simulations demonstrate that for the same bed width, the peak discharge in trapezoidal channel smaller than in rectangular one at a specific distance along the channel length and so, that roughness coefficient and bed slope of the channel play a strong game on the behavior of the flood wave propagation.

Development of river flood model in lower reach of urbanized river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshimura, Kouhei; Tajima, Yoshimitsu; Sanuki, Hiroshi; Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Sato, Shinji; Lee, SungAe; Furumai, Hiroaki; Koike, Toshio

2014-05-01

Japan, with its natural mountainous landscape, has demographic feature that population is concentrated in lower reach of elevation close to the coast, and therefore flood damage with large socio-economic value tends to occur in low-lying region. Modeling of river flood in such low-lying urbanized river basin is complex due to the following reasons. In upstream it has been experienced urbanization, which changed land covers from natural forest or agricultural fields to residential or industrial area. Hence rate of infiltration and runoff are quite different from natural hydrological settings. In downstream, paved covers and construct of sewerage system in urbanized areas affect direct discharges and it enhances higher and faster flood peak arrival. Also tidal effect from river mouth strongly affects water levels in rivers, which must be taken into account. We develop an integrated river flood model in lower reach of urbanized areas to be able to address above described complex feature, by integrating model components: LSM coupled distributed hydrological model that models anthropogenic influence on river discharges to downstream; urban hydrological model that simulates run off response in urbanized areas; Saint Venant's equation approximated river model that integrates upstream and urban hydrological models with considering tidal effect from downstream. These features are integrated in a common modeling framework so that model interaction can be directly performed. The model is applied to the Tsurumi river basin, urbanized low-lying river basin in Yokohama and model results show that it can simulate water levels in rivers with acceptable model errors. Furthermore the model is able to install miscellaneous water planning constructs, such as runoff reduction pond in urbanized area, flood control field along the river channel, levee, etc. This can be a useful tool to investigate cost performance of hypothetical water management plan against impact of climate change in

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

Science.gov (United States)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

Modeling Flood Plain Hydrology and Forest Productivity of Congaree Swamp, South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.

2009-01-01

An ecological field and modeling study was conducted to examine the flood relations of backswamp forests and park trails of the flood plain portion of Congaree National Park, S.C. Continuous water level gages were distributed across the length and width of the flood plain portion - referred to as 'Congaree Swamp' - to facilitate understanding of the lag and peak flood coupling with stage of the Congaree River. A severe and prolonged drought at study start in 2001 extended into late 2002 before backswamp zones circulated floodwaters. Water levels were monitored at 10 gaging stations over a 4-year period from 2002 to 2006. Historical water level stage and discharge data from the Congaree River were digitized from published sources and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) archives to obtain long-term daily averages for an upstream gage at Columbia, S.C., dating back to 1892. Elevation of ground surface was surveyed for all park trails, water level gages, and additional circuits of roads and boundaries. Rectified elevation data were interpolated into a digital elevation model of the park trail system. Regression models were applied to establish time lags and stage relations between gages at Columbia, S.C., and gages in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river and backswamp within the park. Flood relations among backswamp gages exhibited different retention and recession behavior between flood plain reaches with greater hydroperiod in the lower reach than those in the upper and middle reaches of the Congaree Swamp. A flood plain inundation model was developed from gage relations to predict critical river stages and potential inundation of hiking trails on a real-time basis and to forecast the 24-hour flood In addition, tree-ring analysis was used to evaluate the effects of flood events and flooding history on forest resources at Congaree National Park. Tree cores were collected from populations of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), baldcypress (Taxodium distichum), water

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Extending flood damage assessment methodology to include ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Optimal and sustainable flood plain management, including flood control, can only be achieved when the impacts of flood control measures are considered for both the man-made and natural environments, and the sociological aspects are fully considered. Until now, methods/models developed to determine the influences ...

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco

protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

Numerical modeling techniques for flood analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Anees, Mohd Talha; Abdullah, K.; Nawawi, M. N. M.; Ab Rahman, Nik Norulaini Nik; Piah, Abd. Rahni Mt.; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Syakir, M. I.; Mohd. Omar, A. K.

2016-12-01

Topographic and climatic changes are the main causes of abrupt flooding in tropical areas. It is the need to find out exact causes and effects of these changes. Numerical modeling techniques plays a vital role for such studies due to their use of hydrological parameters which are strongly linked with topographic changes. In this review, some of the widely used models utilizing hydrological and river modeling parameters and their estimation in data sparse region are discussed. Shortcomings of 1D and 2D numerical models and the possible improvements over these models through 3D modeling are also discussed. It is found that the HEC-RAS and FLO 2D model are best in terms of economical and accurate flood analysis for river and floodplain modeling respectively. Limitations of FLO 2D in floodplain modeling mainly such as floodplain elevation differences and its vertical roughness in grids were found which can be improve through 3D model. Therefore, 3D model was found to be more suitable than 1D and 2D models in terms of vertical accuracy in grid cells. It was also found that 3D models for open channel flows already developed recently but not for floodplain. Hence, it was suggested that a 3D model for floodplain should be developed by considering all hydrological and high resolution topographic parameter's models, discussed in this review, to enhance the findings of causes and effects of flooding.

Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

2018-03-01

This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

2016-12-01

This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

Flood Prediction for the Tam Nong District in Mekong Delta Using Hydrological Modelling and Hydrologic Remote Sensing Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Kappas, Martin; Nguyen Hong, Quang; Thanh, Nga Pham Thi; Thu, Hang Le Thi; Nguyen Vu, Giang; Degener, Jan; Rafiei Emam, Ammar

2017-04-01

There has been an increasing attention to the large trans-boundary Mekong river basin due to various problems related to water management and flood control, for instance. Vietnam Mekong delta is located at the downstream of the river basin where is affected most by this human-induced reduction in flows from the upstream. On the other hand, the flood plain of nine anastomosing channels is increasingly effected by the seawater intrusion due to sea level rising of climate change. This results in negative impacts of salinization, drought, and floods, while formerly flooding had frequently brought positive natural gain of irrigation water and alluvial aggradation. In this research, our aim is to predict flooding for the better water management adaptation and control. We applied the model HEC-SSP 2.1 to analyze flood flow frequency, two-dimensional unsteady flow calculations in HEC-RAS 5.0 for simulating a floodplain inundation. Remote sensing-based water level (Jason-2) and inundation map were used for validation and comparison with the model simulations. The results revealed a reduction of water level at all the monitoring stations, particularly in the last decade. In addition, a trend of the inundation extension gradually declined, but in some periods it remained severe due to water release from upstream reservoirs during the rainy season (October-November). We found an acceptable agreement between the HEC-RAS and remote sensing flooding maps (around 70%). Based on the flood routine analysis, we could conclude that the water level will continue lower and lead to a trend of drought and salinization harsher in the near future. Keywords: Mekong delta, flood control, inundation, water management, hydrological modelling, remote sensing

Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Hasanzadeh Nafari

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT, on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA, which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth–damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an uncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The predictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water depth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error, especially when the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.

Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures

Science.gov (United States)

Hasanzadeh Nafari, Roozbeh; Amadio, Mattia; Ngo, Tuan; Mysiak, Jaroslav

2017-07-01

The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT), on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA), which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth-damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an uncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The predictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water depth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error), especially when the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.

Coupling impervious surface rate derived from satellite remote sensing with distributed hydrological model for highly urbanized watershed flood forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, L.

2017-12-01

Abstract: The original urban surface structure changed a lot because of the rapid development of urbanization. Impermeable area has increased a lot. It causes great pressure for city flood control and drainage. Songmushan reservoir basin with high degree of urbanization is taken for an example. Pixel from Landsat is decomposed by Linear spectral mixture model and the proportion of urban area in it is considered as impervious rate. Based on impervious rate data before and after urbanization, an physically based distributed hydrological model, Liuxihe Model, is used to simulate the process of hydrology. The research shows that the performance of the flood forecasting of high urbanization area carried out with Liuxihe Model is perfect and can meet the requirement of the accuracy of city flood control and drainage. The increase of impervious area causes conflux speed more quickly and peak flow to be increased. It also makes the time of peak flow advance and the runoff coefficient increase. Key words: Liuxihe Model; Impervious rate; City flood control and drainage; Urbanization; Songmushan reservoir basin

Flood Risk Zoning by Using 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling: A Case Study in Jinan City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Cheng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change and rapid urbanization have aggravated the rainstorm flood in Jinan City during the past decades. Jinan City is higher in the south and lower in the north with a steep slope inclined from the south to the north. This results in high-velocity overland flow and deep waterlogging, which poses a tremendous threat to pedestrians and vehicles. Therefore, it is vital to investigate the rainstorm flood and further perform flood risk zoning. This study is carried out in the “Sponge City Construction” pilot area of Jinan City, where the InfoWorks ICM 2D hydrodynamic model is utilized for simulating historical and designed rainfall events. The model is validated with observations, and the causes for errors are analyzed. The simulated water depth and flow velocity are recorded for flood risk zoning. The result shows that the InfoWorks ICM 2D model performed well. The flood risk zoning result shows that rainfalls with larger recurrence intervals generate larger areas of moderate to extreme risk. Meanwhile, the zoning results for the two historical rainfalls show that flood with a higher maximum hourly rainfall intensity is more serious. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

Simulation of the 2008 Iowa Flood using HiResFlood-UCI Model with Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, P.; Thorstensen, A. R.; Hsu, K. L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Sorooshian, S.

2014-12-01

Precipitation is a key forcing variable in hydrological modeling of floods and being able to accurately observe precipitation is extremely important in mitigating flood impacts. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, launched in Feb 2014 also presents an opportunity for high-quality real-time precipitation data and improved flood warnings. The PERSIANN-CCS developed by the scientists at the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California, Irvine is one algorithm integrated in the IMERG of PMM/GPM. In this research, the high resolution coupled hydrologic/hydraulic model named HiResFlood-UCI was applied to simulate the historical 2008 Iowa flood in the Cedar River basin. HiResFlood-UCI is a coupling of the NWS's distributed hydrologic model HL-RDHM and the hydraulic model BreZo developed by the Computational Hydraulics Group at the University of California, Irvine. The model was forced with the real-time PERSIANN-CCS and NEXRAD Stage 2 precipitation data. Simulations were evaluated based on 2 criteria: hydrographs within the basin and the areal extent of the flooding. Streamflow hydrographs were compared at 7 USGS gages, and simulated inundation maps were evaluated using USDA AWiFS 56m resolution areal flood imagery. The results show reasonable simulated hydrographs compared to USGS streamflow observations when simulating with PERSIANN-CCS and NEXRAD Stage 2 as forcing inputs. The simulation driven by NEXRAD Stage 2 slightly outperforms the PERSIANN-CCS simulation as the latter marginally underestimated the observed hydrographs. The simulation in both cases shows a good agreement (0.672 and 0.727 CSI for Stage 2 and PERSIANN-CCS simulations respectively) with the AWiFS image over the most impacted area in the Cedar Rapids region. Since the PERSIANN-CCS simulation slightly underestimated the discharge, the probability of detection (0.925) is lower than that of the Stage 2 simulation (0.965). As a trade-off, the false

Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

Science.gov (United States)

Siregar, R. I.

2018-02-01

This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

Science.gov (United States)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which

Flood-inundation and flood-mitigation modeling of the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek Watershed in West Branch, Iowa

Science.gov (United States)

Cigrand, Charles V.

2018-03-26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of West Branch and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site of the National Park Service assessed flood-mitigation scenarios within the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek watershed. The scenarios are intended to demonstrate several means of decreasing peak streamflows and improving the conveyance of overbank flows from the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek and its tributary Hoover Creek where they flow through the city and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site located within the city.Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the watershed were constructed to assess the flood-mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, the models used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) version 4.2 to simulate the amount of runoff and streamflow produced from single rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) version 5.0 was then used to construct an unsteady-state model that may be used for routing streamflows, mapping areas that may be inundated during floods, and simulating the effects of different measures taken to decrease the effects of floods on people and infrastructure.Both models were calibrated to three historic rainfall events that produced peak streamflows ranging between the 2-year and 10-year flood-frequency recurrence intervals at the USGS streamgage (05464942) on Hoover Creek. The historic rainfall events were calibrated by using data from two USGS streamgages along with surveyed high-water marks from one of the events. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was then used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 24-hour duration ranging from a 20-percent to a 1-percent annual exceedance probability. These simulated streamflows were incorporated into the HEC–RAS model.The unsteady-state HEC–RAS model was calibrated to represent existing conditions within the watershed. HEC–RAS model simulations with the

Risk-trading in flood management: An economic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Chiung Ting

2017-09-15

Although flood management is no longer exclusively a topic of engineering, flood mitigation continues to be associated with hard engineering options. Flood adaptation or the capacity to adapt to flood risk, as well as a demand for internalizing externalities caused by flood risk between regions, complicate flood management activities. Even though integrated river basin management has long been recommended to resolve the above issues, it has proven difficult to apply widely, and sometimes even to bring into existence. This article explores how internalization of externalities as well as the realization of integrated river basin management can be encouraged via the use of a market-based approach, namely a flood risk trading program. In addition to maintaining efficiency of optimal resource allocation, a flood risk trading program may also provide a more equitable distribution of benefits by facilitating decentralization. This article employs a graphical analysis to show how flood risk trading can be implemented to encourage mitigation measures that increase infiltration and storage capacity. A theoretical model is presented to demonstrate the economic conditions necessary for flood risk trading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Ermolieva, T; Filatova, T; Ermoliev, Y; Obersteiner, M; de Bruijn, K M; Jeuken, A

2017-01-01

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well-designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood-loss-sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile-related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A satellite and model based flood inundation climatology of Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, G.; Andreadis, K.; Castillo, C. J.

2013-12-01

To date there is no coherent and consistent database on observed or simulated flood event inundation and magnitude at large scales (continental to global). The only compiled data set showing a consistent history of flood inundation area and extent at a near global scale is provided by the MODIS-based Dartmouth Flood Observatory. However, MODIS satellite imagery is only available from 2000 and is hampered by a number of issues associated with flood mapping using optical images (e.g. classification algorithms, cloud cover, vegetation). Here, we present for the first time a proof-of-concept study in which we employ a computationally efficient 2-D hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) complemented with a sub-grid channel formulation to generate a complete flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent. The model was built completely from freely available SRTM-derived data, including channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography, which was corrected for vegetation canopy height using a global ICESat canopy dataset. Channel hydraulics were resolved using actual channel data and bathymetry was estimated within the model using hydraulic geometry. On the floodplain, the model simulated the flow paths and inundation variables at a 1 km resolution. The developed model was run over a period of 40 years and a floodplain inundation climatology was generated and compared to satellite flood event observations. Our proof-of-concept study demonstrates that this type of model can reliably simulate past flood events with reasonable accuracies both in time and space. The Australian model was forced with both observed flow climatology and VIC-simulated flows in order to assess the feasibility of a model-based flood inundation climatology at the global scale.

Technical note: River modelling to infer flood management framework

African Journals Online (AJOL)

River hydraulic models have successfully identified the weaknesses and areas for improvement with respect to flooding in the Sarawak River system, and can also be used to support decisions on flood management measures. Often, the big question is 'how'. This paper demonstrates a theoretical flood management ...

Flood extent and water level estimation from SAR using data-model integration

Science.gov (United States)

Ajadi, O. A.; Meyer, F. J.

2017-12-01

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images have long been recognized as a valuable data source for flood mapping. Compared to other sources, SAR's weather and illumination independence and large area coverage at high spatial resolution supports reliable, frequent, and detailed observations of developing flood events. Accordingly, SAR has the potential to greatly aid in the near real-time monitoring of natural hazards, such as flood detection, if combined with automated image processing. This research works towards increasing the reliability and temporal sampling of SAR-derived flood hazard information by integrating information from multiple SAR sensors and SAR modalities (images and Interferometric SAR (InSAR) coherence) and by combining SAR-derived change detection information with hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecast models. First, the combination of multi-temporal SAR intensity images and coherence information for generating flood extent maps is introduced. The application of least-squares estimation integrates flood information from multiple SAR sensors, thus increasing the temporal sampling. SAR-based flood extent information will be combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to reduce false alarms and to estimate water depth and flood volume. The SAR-based flood extent map is assimilated into the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (Hec-RAS) model to aid in hydraulic model calibration. The developed technology is improving the accuracy of flood information by exploiting information from data and models. It also provides enhanced flood information to decision-makers supporting the response to flood extent and improving emergency relief efforts.

Analysis of the flood extent extraction model and the natural flood influencing factors: A GIS-based and remote sensing analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawal, D U; Matori, A N; Yusuf, K W; Hashim, A M; Balogun, A L

2014-01-01

Serious floods have hit the State of Perlis in 2005, 2010, as well as 2011. Perlis is situated in the northern part of Peninsula Malaysia. The floods caused great damage to properties and human lives. There are various methods used in an attempt to provide the most reliable ways to reduce the flood risk and damage to the optimum level by identifying the flood vulnerable zones. The purpose of this paper is to develop a flood extent extraction model based on Minimum Distance Algorithm and to overlay with the natural flood influencing factors considered herein in order to examine the effect of each factor in flood generation. GIS spatial database was created from a geological map, SPOT satellite image, and the topographical map. An attribute database was equally created from field investigations and historical flood areas reports of the study area. The results show a great correlation between the flood extent extraction model and the flood factors

Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

Science.gov (United States)

Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

2018-05-01

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high

Improving Flood Damage Assessment Models in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Amadio, M.; Mysiak, J.; Carrera, L.; Koks, E.

2015-12-01

The use of Stage-Damage Curve (SDC) models is prevalent in ex-ante assessments of flood risk. To assess the potential damage of a flood event, SDCs describe a relation between water depth and the associated potential economic damage over land use. This relation is normally developed and calibrated through site-specific analysis based on ex-post damage observations. In some cases (e.g. Italy) SDCs are transferred from other countries, undermining the accuracy and reliability of simulation results. Against this background, we developed a refined SDC model for Northern Italy, underpinned by damage compensation records from a recent flood event. Our analysis considers both damage to physical assets and production losses from business interruptions. While the first is calculated based on land use information, production losses are measured through the spatial distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA). An additional component of the model assesses crop-specific agricultural losses as a function of flood seasonality. Our results show an overestimation of asset damage from non-calibrated SDC values up to a factor of 4.5 for tested land use categories. Furthermore, we estimate that production losses amount to around 6 per cent of the annual GVA. Also, maximum yield losses are less than a half of the amount predicted by the standard SDC methods.

Growing magma chambers control the distribution of small-scale flood basalts.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xun; Chen, Li-Hui; Zeng, Gang

2015-11-19

Small-scale continental flood basalts are a global phenomenon characterized by regular spatio-temporal distributions. However, no genetic mechanism has been proposed to explain the visible but overlooked distribution patterns of these continental basaltic volcanism. Here we present a case study from eastern China, combining major and trace element analyses with Ar-Ar and K-Ar dating to show that the spatio-temporal distribution of small-scale flood basalts is controlled by the growth of long-lived magma chambers. Evolved basalts (SiO2 > 47.5 wt.%) from Xinchang-Shengzhou, a small-scale Cenozoic flood basalt field in Zhejiang province, eastern China, show a northward younging trend over the period 9.4-3.0 Ma. With northward migration, the magmas evolved only slightly ((Na2O + K2O)/MgO = 0.40-0.66; TiO2/MgO = 0.23-0.35) during about 6 Myr (9.4-3.3 Ma). When the flood basalts reached the northern end of the province, the magmas evolved rapidly (3.3-3.0 Ma) through a broad range of compositions ((Na2O + K2O)/MgO = 0.60-1.28; TiO2/MgO = 0.30-0.57). The distribution and two-stage compositional evolution of the migrating flood basalts record continuous magma replenishment that buffered against magmatic evolution and induced magma chamber growth. Our results demonstrate that the magma replenishment-magma chamber growth model explains the spatio-temporal distribution of small-scale flood basalts.

Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Winters, Karl E.; Baldys, Stanley

2011-01-01

In cooperation with the City of Wichita Falls, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed channel changes on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, and modeled historical floods to investigate possible causes and potential mitigation alternatives to higher flood stages in recent (2007 and 2008) floods. Extreme flooding occurred on the Wichita River on June 30, 2007, inundating 167 homes in Wichita Falls. Although a record flood stage was reached in June 2007, the peak discharge was much less than some historical floods at Wichita Falls. Streamflow and stage data from two gages on the Wichita River and one on Holliday Creek were used to assess the interaction of the two streams. Changes in the Wichita River channel were evaluated using historical aerial and ground photography, comparison of recent and historical cross sections, and comparison of channel roughness coefficients with those from earlier studies. The floods of 2007 and 2008 were modeled using a one-dimensional step-backwater model. Calibrated channel roughness was larger for the 2007 flood compared to the 2008 flood, and the 2007 flood peaked about 4 feet higher than the 2008 flood. Calibration of the 1941 flood yielded a channel roughness coefficient (Manning's n) of 0.030, which represents a fairly clean natural channel. The step-backwater model was also used to evaluate the following potential mitigation alternatives: (1) increasing the capacity of the bypass channel near River Road in Wichita Falls, Texas; (2) removal of obstructions near the Scott Avenue and Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard bridges in Wichita Falls, Texas; (3) widening of aggraded channel banks in the reach between Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard and River Road; and (4) reducing channel bank and overbank roughness. Reductions in water-surface elevations ranged from 0.1 foot to as much as 3.0 feet for the different mitigation alternatives. The effects of implementing a combination of different flood-mitigation alternatives were

An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model

Science.gov (United States)

M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.

2015-12-01

Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a

Flooding and Flood Management

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

2011-01-01

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

Science.gov (United States)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some

Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO.

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2017-04-01

Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Historical Flood Of July 2008 From Vaser River Basin, Romania. Causes, Effects And Flood Control Actions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sima Andrei

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Floods is an experience perceived by society as unexpected, unexplainable and traumatizing and nowadays a threat to humanity more than ever. Among the natural phenomena which negatively affect human activities, floods are the ones which usually have the most significant consequences. The research, evaluations and statistics related to these phenomena do not reveal the drama and serious consequences that come with floods. It was proven that the increase of these extreme hydrological phenomena it is closely related to the anthropic activities from the area. Vaser basin is the most significant sub-basin of Vișeu river basin, contributing with 28% from the total flow of Vișeu river. Having a strong touristic and economic potential, the basin is often threatened by flash floods which usually have devastating effects. During July 2008 there was recorded the most significant flood from the history of hydrometric activity that led to substantial damage and death among locals. The present paper aims to analyze this historical flood, identifying the causes, effects, as well as the methods to control this extreme hydric phenomenon.

Interactive modelling with stakeholders in two cases in flood management

Science.gov (United States)

Leskens, Johannes; Brugnach, Marcela

2013-04-01

New policies on flood management called Multi-Level Safety (MLS), demand for an integral and collaborative approach. The goal of MLS is to minimize flood risks by a coherent package of protection measures, crisis management and flood resilience measures. To achieve this, various stakeholders, such as water boards, municipalities and provinces, have to collaborate in composing these measures. Besides the many advances this integral and collaborative approach gives, the decision-making environment becomes also more complex. Participants have to consider more criteria than they used to do and have to take a wide network of participants into account, all with specific perspectives, cultures and preferences. In response, sophisticated models are developed to support decision-makers in grasping this complexity. These models provide predictions of flood events and offer the opportunity to test the effectiveness of various measures under different criteria. Recent model advances in computation speed and model flexibility allow stakeholders to directly interact with a hydrological hydraulic model during meetings. Besides a better understanding of the decision content, these interactive models are supposed to support the incorporation of stakeholder knowledge in modelling and to support mutual understanding of different perspectives of stakeholders To explore the support of interactive modelling in integral and collaborate policies, such as MLS, we tested a prototype of an interactive flood model (3Di) with respect to a conventional model (Sobek) in two cases. The two cases included the designing of flood protection measures in Amsterdam and a flood event exercise in Delft. These case studies yielded two main results. First, we observed that in the exploration phase of a decision-making process, stakeholders participated actively in interactive modelling sessions. This increased the technical understanding of complex problems and the insight in the effectiveness of various

Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

2016-04-01

Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

Mathematical modelling of flooding at Magela Creek

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vardavas, I.

1989-01-01

The extent and frequency of the flooding at Magela Creek can be predicted from a mathematical/computer model describing the hydrological phases of surface runoff. Surface runoff involves complex water transfer processes over very inhomogeneous terrain. A simple mathematical model of these has been developed which includes the interception of rainfall by the plant canopy, evapotranspiration, infiltration of surface water into the soil, the storage of water in surface depressions, and overland and subsurface water flow. The rainfall-runoff model has then been incorporated into a more complex computer model to predict the amount of water that enters and leaves the Magela Creek flood plain, downstream of the mine. 2 figs., ills

From global circulation to flood loss: Coupling models across the scales

Science.gov (United States)

Felder, Guido; Gomez-Navarro, Juan Jose; Bozhinova, Denica; Zischg, Andreas; Raible, Christoph C.; Ole, Roessler; Martius, Olivia; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

The prediction and the prevention of flood losses requires an extensive understanding of underlying meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and damage processes. Coupled models help to improve the understanding of such underlying processes and therefore contribute the understanding of flood risk. Using such a modelling approach to determine potentially flood-affected areas and damages requires a complex coupling between several models operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Although the isolated parts of the single modelling components are well established and commonly used in the literature, a full coupling including a mesoscale meteorological model driven by a global circulation one, a hydrologic model, a hydrodynamic model and a flood impact and loss model has not been reported so far. In the present study, we tackle the application of such a coupled model chain in terms of computational resources, scale effects, and model performance. From a technical point of view, results show the general applicability of such a coupled model, as well as good model performance. From a practical point of view, such an approach enables the prediction of flood-induced damages, although some future challenges have been identified.

Using a Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting Model to Analyze the Uncertainty in Real-Time Dynamic Control of the Flood Limiting Water Level for Reservoir Operation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Dedi; Li, Xiang; Guo, Shenglian

2015-01-01

Dynamic control of the flood limiting water level (FLWL) is a valuable and effective way to maximize the benefits from reservoir operation without exceeding the design risk. In order to analyze the impacts of input uncertainty, a Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is adopted. Applying quantile water...... inflow values and their uncertainties obtained from the BFS, the reservoir operation results from different schemes can be analyzed in terms of benefits, dam safety, and downstream impacts during the flood season. When the reservoir FLWL dynamic control operation is implemented, there are two fundamental......, also deterministic water inflow was tested. The proposed model in the paper emphasizes the importance of analyzing the uncertainties of the water inflow forecasting system for real-time dynamic control of the FLWL for reservoir operation. For the case study, the selected quantile inflow from...

Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis D.; Lykoudis, Spyros; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Kappos, Nikos; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2013-08-01

Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk -a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive- it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its

Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

2013-01-01

Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

Coupled modelling of subsurface water flux for an integrated flood risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Sommer

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Flood events cause significant damage not only on the surface but also underground. Infiltration of surface water into soil, flooding through the urban sewer system and, in consequence, rising groundwater are the main causes of subsurface damage. The modelling of flooding events is an important part of flood risk assessment. The processes of subsurface discharge of infiltrated water necessitate coupled modelling tools of both, surface and subsurface water fluxes. Therefore, codes for surface flooding, for discharge in the sewerage system and for groundwater flow were coupled with each other. A coupling software was used to amalgamate the individual programs in terms of mapping between the different model geometries, time synchronization and data exchange. The coupling of the models was realized on two scales in the Saxon capital of Dresden (Germany. As a result of the coupled modelling it could be shown that surface flooding dominates processes of any flood event. Compared to flood simulations without coupled modelling no substantial changes of the surface inundation area could be determined. Regarding sewerage, the comparison between the influx of groundwater into sewerage and the loading due to infiltration by flood water showed infiltration of surface flood water to be the main reason for sewerage overloading. Concurrent rainfalls can intensify the problem. The infiltration of the sewerage system by rising groundwater contributes only marginally to the loading of the sewerage and the distribution of water by sewerage has only local impacts on groundwater rise. However, the localization of risk areas due to rising groundwater requires the consideration of all components of the subsurface water fluxes. The coupled modelling has shown that high groundwater levels are the result of a multi-causal process that occurs before and during the flood event.

Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

2017-04-01

Floods are one of the most predominant, costly and deadly hazards of all natural vulnerabilities. Every year, floods exert a heavy toll on human life and property in many parts of the world. The prediction of river stages and discharge during flood extremes plays a vital role in planning structural and non-structural measures of flood management. The predictions are also valuable to prepare the flood inundation maps and river floodplain zoning. In the Kashmir Valley, floods occur mainly and very often in the Jhelum Basin mostly due to extreme precipitation events and rugged mountainous topography of the basin. These floods cause extreme damage to life and property in the valley from time to time. Excessive rainfall, particularly in higher sub-catchments causes the snow to melt resulting in excessive runoff downhill to the streams causing floods in the Kashmir Valley where Srinagar city is located. However, very few hydrological studies have been undertaken for the Jhelum Basin mainly due to non-availability of hydrological data due to very complex mountainous terrain. Therefore, the present study has been conducted to model the extreme flood events in the Jhelum Basin in Kashmir Valley. An integrated NAM and MIKE 11 HD model has been setup for Jhelum basin up to Ram Munshi Bagh gauging site and then four most extreme historical flood events in the time series has been analyzed separately including the most recent and most extreme flood event of 2014. In September 2014, the Kashmir Valley witnessed the most severe flood in the past 60 years due to catastrophic rainfall from 1st to 6th September wherein the valley received unprecedented rainfall of more than 650 mm in just 3 days breaking record of many decades. The MIKE 11 HD and NAM model has been calibrated using 21 years (1985-2005) data and validated using 9 years (2006-2014) data. The efficiency indices of the model for calibration and validation period is 0.749 and 0.792 respectively. The model simulated

Recent changes in flood damage in the United States from observations and ACME model

Science.gov (United States)

Leng, G.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Despite efforts to mitigate flood hazards in flood-prone areas, survey- and report-based flood databases show that flood damage has increased and emerged as one of the most costly disaster in the United States since the 1990s. Understanding the mechanism driving the changes in flood damage is therefore critical for reducing flood risk. In this study, we first conduct a comprehensive analysis of the changing characteristics of flood damage at local, state and country level. Results show a significant increasing trend in the number of flood hazards, causing economic losses of up to $7 billion per year. The ratio of flood events that caused tangible economical cost to the total flood events has exhibited a non-significant increasing trend before 2007 followed by a significant decrease, indicating a changing vulnerability to floods. Analysis also reveals distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the threshold intensity of flood hazards with tangible economical cost. To understand the mechanism behind the increasing flood damage, we develop a flood damage economic model coupled with the integrated hydrological modeling system of ACME that features a river routing model with an inundation parameterization and a water use and regulation model. The model is evaluated over the country against historical records. Several numerical experiments are then designed to explore the mechanisms behind the recent changes in flood damage from the perspective of flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which constitute flood damage. The role of human activities such as reservoir operations and water use in modifying regional floods are also explored using the new tool, with the goal of improving understanding and modeling of vulnerability to flood hazards.

What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

2015-12-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

Merging information from multi-model flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

Science.gov (United States)

Le Vine, Nataliya

2016-04-01

Multi-model ensembles are becoming widely accepted for flood frequency change analysis. The use of multiple models results in large uncertainty around estimates of flood magnitudes, due to both uncertainty in model selection and natural variability of river flow. The challenge is therefore to extract the most meaningful signal from the multi-model predictions, accounting for both model quality and uncertainties in individual model estimates. The study demonstrates the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach facilitates explicit treatment of shared multi-model discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, by treating the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The advantages of the approach are: 1) to insure an adequate 'baseline' conditions with which to compare future changes; 2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; 3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; 4) to adjust multi-model consistency criteria when model biases are large; and 5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVES PROPAGATION

OpenAIRE

Lorand Catalin STOENESCU

2011-01-01

The study presented in this article describes a modern modeling methodology of the propagation of accidental flood waves in case a dam break; this methodology is applied in Romania for the first time for the pilot project „Breaking scenarios of Poiana Uzului dam”. The calculation programs used help us obtain a bidimensional calculation (2D) of the propagation of flood waves, taking into consideration the diminishing of the flood wave on a normal direction to the main direction; this diminishi...

Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudari Roberto

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

Realistic modelling of external flooding scenarios - A multi-disciplinary approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brinkman, J.L.

2014-01-01

Extreme phenomena, such as storm surges or high river water levels, may endanger the safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by inundation of the plant site with subsequent damage on safety-related buildings. Flooding may result in simultaneous failures of safety-related components, such as service water pumps and electrical equipment. In addition, the accessibility of the plant may be impeded due to flooding of the plant environment. These consequences are so severe that, (re)assessments of flood risk and flood protection measures should be based on accurate state-of-the-art methods. Dutch nuclear regulations require that a nuclear power plant shall withstand all external initiating events with a return period lower than one million years. For external flooding, this requirement is the basis of the so-called nuclear design level (nucleair ontwerp peil, NOP) of the buildings for external flooding, i.e. the water level at which a system - among others, the nuclear island and the ultimate heat sink - should still function properly. In determining the NOP, the mean water level, wave height and wave behaviour during storm surges are taken into account. This concept could also be used to implement external flooding in a PSA, by assuming that floods exceeding NOP levels directly lead to core damage. However, this straightforward modelling ignores some important aspects: the first is the mitigating effect of the external flood protection as dikes or dunes; the second aspect is that although water levels lower than NOP will not directly lead to core damage, they could do so indirectly as a result of combinations of system loss by flooding and random failure of required safety systems that have to bring the plant in a safe, stable state. Time is a third aspect: failure mechanisms need time to develop and time (via duration of the flood) determines the amount of water on site. This paper describes a PSA approach that takes the (structural) reliability of the external defences

Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

2016-12-01

Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Flood Mapping: Assessing the uncertainty associated with flood inundation modelling. A case study of the Mora River, Sweden

OpenAIRE

Åberg, Isabelle

2017-01-01

Expansion of cities and major infrastructure projects lead to changes in land use and river flows. The probability of flooding is expected to increase in the future as a result of these changes in combination with climate change. Hydraulic models can be used to obtain simulated water levels to investigate the risk of flooding and identify areas that might potentially be flooded due to climate change. Since a model is a simplification of the reality it is important to be aware of a model’s unc...

A framework for the selection and ensemble development of flood vulnerability models

Science.gov (United States)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Martina, Mario

2017-04-01

Effective understanding and management of flood risk requires comprehensive risk assessment studies that consider not only the hazard component, but also the impacts that the phenomena may have on the built environment, economy and society. This integrated approach has gained importance over recent decades, and with it so has the scientific attention given to flood vulnerability models describing the relationships between flood intensity metrics and damage to physical assets, also known as flood loss models. Despite considerable progress in this field, many challenges persist. Flood damage mechanisms are complex and depend on multiple variables, which can have different degrees of importance depending on the application setting. In addition, data required for the development and validation of such models tend to be scarce, particularly in data poor regions. These issues are reflected in the large amount of flood vulnerability models that are available in the literature today, as well as in their high heterogeneity: they are built with different modelling approaches, in different geographic contexts, utilizing different explanatory variables, and with varying levels of complexity. Notwithstanding recent developments in this area, uncertainty remains high, and large disparities exist among models. For these reasons, identifying which model or models, given their properties, are appropriate for a given context is not straightforward. In the present study, we propose a framework that guides the structured selection of flood vulnerability models and enables ranking them according to their suitability for a certain application, based on expert judgement. The approach takes advantage of current state of the art and most up-to-date knowledge on flood vulnerability processes. Given the heterogeneity and uncertainty currently present in flood vulnerability models, we propose the use of a model ensemble. With this in mind, the proposed approach is based on a weighting scheme

Controlling flow-induced vibrations of flood barrier gates with data-driven and finite-element modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Erdbrink, C.D.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Sloot, P.M.A.; Klijn, F.; Schweckendiek, T.

2012-01-01

Operation of flood barrier gates is sometimes hampered by flow-induced vibrations. Although the physics is understood for specific gate types, it remains challenging to judge dynamic gate behaviour for unanticipated conditions. This paper presents a hybrid modelling system for predicting vibrations

Probable maximum flood control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

1991-11-01

This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

Economic Assessment of Flood Control Facilities under Climate Uncertainty: A Case of Nakdong River, South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyeongseok Kim

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change contributes to enhanced flood damage that has been increasing for the last several decades. Understanding climate uncertainties improves adaptation strategies used for investment in flood control facilities. This paper proposes an investment decision framework for one flood zone to cope with future severe climate impacts. This framework can help policy-makers investigate the cost of future damage and conduct an economic assessment using real options under future climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology provides local municipalities with an adaptation strategy for flood control facilities in a flood zone. Using the proposed framework, the flood prevention facilities in the Nakdong River Basin of South Korea was selected as a case study site to analyze the economic assessment of the investments for flood control facilities. Using representative concentration pathway (RCP climate scenarios, the cost of future flood damage to 23 local municipalities was calculated, and investment strategies for adaptation were analyzed. The project option value was determined by executing an option to invest in an expansion that would adapt to floods under climate change. The results of the case study showed that the proposed flood facilities are economically feasible under both scenarios used. The framework is anticipated to present guidance for establishing investment strategies for flood control facilities of a flood zone in multiple municipalities’ settings.

Temporal stability and transferability of models of willingness to pay for flood control and wetland conservation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, R.; Bateman, I.J.

2005-01-01

This study investigates the temporal stability and transferability of dichotomous choice willingness to pay responses and their determinants from two large-scale contingent valuation surveys in the area of flood control and wetland conservation. The study considers a time period between surveys

Analysis the Accuracy of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Flood Modelling on Lowland Area

Science.gov (United States)

Zainol Abidin, Ku Hasna Zainurin Ku; Razi, Mohd Adib Mohammad; Bukari, Saifullizan Mohd

2018-04-01

Flood is one type of natural disaster that occurs almost every year in Malaysia. Commonly the lowland areas are the worst affected areas. This kind of disaster is controllable by using an accurate data for proposing any kinds of solutions. Elevation data is one of the data used to produce solutions for flooding. Currently, the research about the application of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in hydrology was increased where this kind of model will identify the elevation for required areas. University of Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia is one of the lowland areas which facing flood problems on 2006. Therefore, this area was chosen in order to produce DEM which focussed on University Health Centre (PKU) and drainage area around Civil and Environment Faculty (FKAAS). Unmanned Aerial Vehicle used to collect aerial photos data then undergoes a process of generating DEM according to three types of accuracy and quality from Agisoft PhotoScan software. The higher the level of accuracy and quality of DEM produced, the longer time taken to generate a DEM. The reading of the errors created while producing the DEM shows almost 0.01 different. Therefore, it has been identified there are some important parameters which influenced the accuracy of DEM.

Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

2015-12-01

Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage

Real-time dynamic control of the Three Gorges Reservoir by coupling numerical weather rainfall prediction and flood forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

2013-01-01

In reservoir operation improvement of the accuracy of forecast flood inflow and extension of forecast lead-time can effectively be achieved by using rainfall forecasts from numerical weather predictions with a hydrological catchment model. In this study, the Regional Spectrum Model (RSM), which...... is developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency, was used to forecast rainfall with 5 days lead-time in the upper region of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). A conceptual hydrological model, the Xinanjiang Model, has been set up to forecast the inflow flood of TGR by the Ministry of Water Resources Information...... season 2012 as example, real-time dynamic control of the FLWL was implemented by using the forecasted reservoir flood inflow as input. The forecasted inflow with 5 days lead-time rainfall forecast was evaluated by several performance indices, including the mean relative error of the volumetric reservoir...

Flood routing modelling with Artificial Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Peters

2006-01-01

Full Text Available For the modelling of the flood routing in the lower reaches of the Freiberger Mulde river and its tributaries the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system HEC-RAS has been applied. Furthermore, this model was used to generate a database to train multilayer feedforward networks. To guarantee numerical stability for the hydrodynamic modelling of some 60 km of streamcourse an adequate resolution in space requires very small calculation time steps, which are some two orders of magnitude smaller than the input data resolution. This leads to quite high computation requirements seriously restricting the application – especially when dealing with real time operations such as online flood forecasting. In order to solve this problem we tested the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. First studies show the ability of adequately trained multilayer feedforward networks (MLFN to reproduce the model performance.

Improvements in fast-response flood modeling: desktop parallel computing and domain tracking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Judi, David R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcpherson, Timothy N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Burian, Steven J [UNIV. OF UTAH

2009-01-01

It is becoming increasingly important to have the ability to accurately forecast flooding, as flooding accounts for the most losses due to natural disasters in the world and the United States. Flood inundation modeling has been dominated by one-dimensional approaches. These models are computationally efficient and are considered by many engineers to produce reasonably accurate water surface profiles. However, because the profiles estimated in these models must be superimposed on digital elevation data to create a two-dimensional map, the result may be sensitive to the ability of the elevation data to capture relevant features (e.g. dikes/levees, roads, walls, etc...). Moreover, one-dimensional models do not explicitly represent the complex flow processes present in floodplains and urban environments and because two-dimensional models based on the shallow water equations have significantly greater ability to determine flow velocity and direction, the National Research Council (NRC) has recommended that two-dimensional models be used over one-dimensional models for flood inundation studies. This paper has shown that two-dimensional flood modeling computational time can be greatly reduced through the use of Java multithreading on multi-core computers which effectively provides a means for parallel computing on a desktop computer. In addition, this paper has shown that when desktop parallel computing is coupled with a domain tracking algorithm, significant computation time can be eliminated when computations are completed only on inundated cells. The drastic reduction in computational time shown here enhances the ability of two-dimensional flood inundation models to be used as a near-real time flood forecasting tool, engineering, design tool, or planning tool. Perhaps even of greater significance, the reduction in computation time makes the incorporation of risk and uncertainty/ensemble forecasting more feasible for flood inundation modeling (NRC 2000; Sayers et al

Efficient pan-European river flood hazard modelling through a combination of statistical and physical models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paprotny, D.; Morales Napoles, O.; Jonkman, S.N.

2017-01-01

Flood hazard is currently being researched on continental and global scales, using models of increasing complexity. In this paper we investigate a different, simplified approach, which combines statistical and physical models in place of conventional rainfall-run-off models to carry out flood

TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVES PROPAGATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorand Catalin STOENESCU

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The study presented in this article describes a modern modeling methodology of the propagation of accidental flood waves in case a dam break; this methodology is applied in Romania for the first time for the pilot project „Breaking scenarios of Poiana Uzului dam”. The calculation programs used help us obtain a bidimensional calculation (2D of the propagation of flood waves, taking into consideration the diminishing of the flood wave on a normal direction to the main direction; this diminishing of the flood wave is important in the case of sinuous courses of water or with urban settlements very close to the minor river bed. In the case of Poiana Uzului dam, 2 scenarios were simulated with the help of Ph.D. Eng. Dan Stematiu, plausible scenarios but with very little chances of actually producing. The results were presented as animations with flooded surfaces at certain time steps successively.

Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

Hydrological forecast of maximal water level in Lepenica river basin and flood control measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milanović Ana

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Lepenica river basin territory has became axis of economic and urban development of Šumadija district. However, considering Lepenica River with its tributaries, and their disordered river regime, there is insufficient of water for water supply and irrigation, while on the other hand, this area is suffering big flood and torrent damages (especially Kragujevac basin. The paper presents flood problems in the river basin, maximum water level forecasts, and flood control measures carried out until now. Some of the potential solutions, aiming to achieve the effective flood control, are suggested as well.

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... as an input for further refinement of the scenarios for the urban development. Our results in an Australian case study suggest that urban development is a major driver for flood risk and vice versa that flood risk can be significantly reduced if it is accounted for in the development of the cities...

Adaptation and Mitigation Model for People to Restore Their Ecosystem from Flood in Semarang, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muzakar Isa

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The northern coast of Central Java province is considered as the critical area of flood path. Semarang as capital city of this province with its junction area of Kendal and Demak always suffering from flood due to rain and or high tide seawater. It is realised that infrastructures’ capacity for flood control, awareness of people and other multi-factors are significantly contributed on the flood problem in these area. Mixed-methods of quantitative and qualitative are employed to analyze the data. The study found that there was a decline in quality of - people’s life, environment and its ecosystem. Awareness and responsiveness of people and also the other stakeholders are not progressive to overcome the problem of flood. This study is trying to contribute in outlining a model of adaptation and mitigation for the people to restore their ecosystem from the perspective of economist.

Tree-based flood damage modeling of companies: Damage processes and model performance

Science.gov (United States)

Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno; Kreibich, Heidi

2017-07-01

Reliable flood risk analyses, including the estimation of damage, are an important prerequisite for efficient risk management. However, not much is known about flood damage processes affecting companies. Thus, we conduct a flood damage assessment of companies in Germany with regard to two aspects. First, we identify relevant damage-influencing variables. Second, we assess the prediction performance of the developed damage models with respect to the gain by using an increasing amount of training data and a sector-specific evaluation of the data. Random forests are trained with data from two postevent surveys after flood events occurring in the years 2002 and 2013. For a sector-specific consideration, the data set is split into four subsets corresponding to the manufacturing, commercial, financial, and service sectors. Further, separate models are derived for three different company assets: buildings, equipment, and goods and stock. Calculated variable importance values reveal different variable sets relevant for the damage estimation, indicating significant differences in the damage process for various company sectors and assets. With an increasing number of data used to build the models, prediction errors decrease. Yet the effect is rather small and seems to saturate for a data set size of several hundred observations. In contrast, the prediction improvement achieved by a sector-specific consideration is more distinct, especially for damage to equipment and goods and stock. Consequently, sector-specific data acquisition and a consideration of sector-specific company characteristics in future flood damage assessments is expected to improve the model performance more than a mere increase in data.

Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

2013 FEMA Flood Control Structures

Data.gov (United States)

Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

The geomorphic effectiveness of a large flood on the Rio Grande in the Big Bend region: insights on geomorphic controls and post-flood geomorphic response

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, David J.; Schmidt, John C.

2013-01-01

Since the 1940s, the Rio Grande in the Big Bend region has undergone long periods of channel narrowing, which have been occasionally interrupted by rare, large floods that widen the channel (termed a channel reset). The most recent channel reset occurred in 2008 following a 17-year period of extremely low stream flow and rapid channel narrowing. Flooding was caused by precipitation associated with the remnants of tropical depression Lowell in the Rio Conchos watershed, the largest tributary to the Rio Grande. Floodwaters approached 1500 m3/s (between a 13 and 15 year recurrence interval) and breached levees, inundated communities, and flooded the alluvial valley of the Rio Grande; the wetted width exceeding 2.5 km in some locations. The 2008 flood had the 7th largest magnitude of record, however, conveyed the largest volume of water than any other flood. Because of the narrow pre-flood channel conditions, record flood stages occurred. We used pre- and post-flood aerial photographs, channel and floodplain surveys, and 1-dimensional hydraulic models to quantify the magnitude of channel change, investigate the controls of flood-induced geomorphic changes, and measure the post-flood response of the widened channel. These analyses show that geomorphic changes included channel widening, meander migration, avulsions, extensive bar formation, and vertical floodplain accretion. Reach-averaged channel widening between 26 and 52% occurred, but in some localities exceeded 500%. The degree and style of channel response was related, but not limited to, three factors: 1) bed-load supply and transport, 2) pre-flood channel plan form, and 3) rapid declines in specific stream power downstream of constrictions and areas of high channel bed slope. The post-flood channel response has consisted of channel contraction through the aggradation of the channel bed and the formation of fine-grained benches inset within the widened channel margins. The most significant post-flood geomorphic

Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

2016-04-01

Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

Science.gov (United States)

Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

2005-06-15

Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

Flood hazard mapping of Palembang City by using 2D model

Science.gov (United States)

Farid, Mohammad; Marlina, Ayu; Kusuma, Muhammad Syahril Badri

2017-11-01

Palembang as the capital city of South Sumatera Province is one of the metropolitan cities in Indonesia that flooded almost every year. Flood in the city is highly related to Musi River Basin. Based on Indonesia National Agency of Disaster Management (BNPB), the level of flood hazard is high. Many natural factors caused flood in the city such as high intensity of rainfall, inadequate drainage capacity, and also backwater flow due to spring tide. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors such as population increase, land cover/use change, and garbage problem make flood problem become worse. The objective of this study is to develop flood hazard map of Palembang City by using two dimensional model. HEC-RAS 5.0 is used as modelling tool which is verified with field observation data. There are 21 sub catchments of Musi River Basin in the flood simulation. The level of flood hazard refers to Head Regulation of BNPB number 2 in 2012 regarding general guideline of disaster risk assessment. The result for 25 year return per iod of flood shows that with 112.47 km2 area of inundation, 14 sub catchments are categorized in high hazard level. It is expected that the hazard map can be used for risk assessment.

Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

Science.gov (United States)

Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

Spatial Analytic Hierarchy Process Model for Flood Forecasting: An Integrated Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matori, Abd Nasir; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Hashim, Mustafa Ahmad; Lawal, Dano Umar; Balogun, Abdul-Lateef

2014-01-01

Various flood influencing factors such as rainfall, geology, slope gradient, land use, soil type, drainage density, temperature etc. are generally considered for flood hazard assessment. However, lack of appropriate handling/integration of data from different sources is a challenge that can make any spatial forecasting difficult and inaccurate. Availability of accurate flood maps and thorough understanding of the subsurface conditions can adequately enhance flood disasters management. This study presents an approach that attempts to provide a solution to this drawback by combining Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model as spatial forecasting tools. In achieving the set objectives, spatial forecasting of flood susceptible zones in the study area was made. A total number of five set of criteria/factors believed to be influencing flood generation in the study area were selected. Priority weights were assigned to each criterion/factor based on Saaty's nine point scale of preference and weights were further normalized through the AHP. The model was integrated into a GIS system in order to produce a flood forecasting map

Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-08-01

Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Judi, David R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcpherson, Timothy N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Burian, Steven J [UNIV OF UTAK

2009-01-01

A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

2017-12-01

A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

A Dynamic Model for Roll Motion of Ships Due to Flooding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xia, Jinzhu; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1997-01-01

A dynamic model is presented of the roll motion of damaged RoRo vessels which couples the internal cross-flooding flow and the air action in the equalizing compartment. The cross flooding flow and the air motion are modelled by a modified Bernoulli equation, where artificial damping is introduced...... to avoid modal instability based on the original Bernoulli equation. The fluid action of the flooded water on the ship is expressed by its influence on the moment of inertia of the ship and the heeling moment, which is a couple created by the gravitational force of the flooded water and the change...... of buoyancy of the ship.Two limiting flooding cases are examined in the present analysis: The sudden ingress of a certain amount of water to the damaged compartment with no further water exchange between the sea and the flooded compartment during the roll motion, and the continuous ingress of water through...

A web GIS based integrated flood assessment modeling tool for coastal urban watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, A. T.; Mohanty, J.; Eldho, T. I.; Rao, E. P.; Mohan, B. K.

2014-03-01

Urban flooding has become an increasingly important issue in many parts of the world. In this study, an integrated flood assessment model (IFAM) is presented for the coastal urban flood simulation. A web based GIS framework has been adopted to organize the spatial datasets for the study area considered and to run the model within this framework. The integrated flood model consists of a mass balance based 1-D overland flow model, 1-D finite element based channel flow model based on diffusion wave approximation and a quasi 2-D raster flood inundation model based on the continuity equation. The model code is written in MATLAB and the application is integrated within a web GIS server product viz: Web Gram Server™ (WGS), developed at IIT Bombay, using Java, JSP and JQuery technologies. Its user interface is developed using open layers and the attribute data are stored in MySQL open source DBMS. The model is integrated within WGS and is called via Java script. The application has been demonstrated for two coastal urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai, India. Simulated flood extents for extreme rainfall event of 26 July, 2005 in the two urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai city are presented and discussed. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the flood simulation tool in a web GIS environment to facilitate data access and visualization of GIS datasets and simulation results.

A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

2015-04-01

Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

Method of improving heterogeneous oil reservoir polymer flooding effect by positively-charged gel profile control

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ling; Xia, Huifen

2018-01-01

The project of polymer flooding has achieved great success in Daqing oilfield, and the main oil reservoir recovery can be improved by more than 15%. But, for some strong oil reservoir heterogeneity carrying out polymer flooding, polymer solution will be inefficient and invalid loop problem in the high permeability layer, then cause the larger polymer volume, and a significant reduction in the polymer flooding efficiency. Aiming at this problem, it is studied the method that improves heterogeneous oil reservoir polymer flooding effect by positively-charged gel profile control. The research results show that the polymer physical and chemical reaction of positively-charged gel with the residual polymer in high permeability layer can generate three-dimensional network of polymer, plugging high permeable layer, and increase injection pressure gradient, then improve the effect of polymer flooding development. Under the condition of the same dosage, positively-charged gel profile control can improve the polymer flooding recovery factor by 2.3∼3.8 percentage points. Under the condition of the same polymer flooding recovery factor increase value, after positively-charged gel profile control, it can reduce the polymer volume by 50 %. Applying mechanism of positively-charged gel profile control technology is feasible, cost savings, simple construction, and no environmental pollution, therefore has good application prospect.

A new methodology for modelling of health risk from urban flooding exemplified by cholera

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mark, Ole; Jørgensen, Claus; Hammond, Michael

2016-01-01

outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and health risk caused by direct human contact with the flood water and hence gives...... and mortality, especially during floods. At present, there are no software tools capable of combining hydrodynamic modelling and health risk analyses, and the links between urban flooding and the health risk for the population due to direct contact with the flood water are poorly understood. The present paper...... an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population by use of intelligent urban flood risk management. The model linking urban flooding and health risk is applied to Dhaka City in Bangladesh, where waterborne diseases including cholera are endemic. The application to Dhaka City is supported...

Modeling urban flood risk territories for Riga city

Science.gov (United States)

Piliksere, A.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Bethers, U.; Bethers, P.; Valainis, A.

2012-04-01

Riga, the capital of Latvia, is located on River Daugava at the Gulf of Riga. The main flooding risks of Riga city are: (1) storm caused water setup in South part of Gulf of Riga (storm event), (2) water level increase caused by Daugava River discharge maximums (spring snow melting event) and (3) strong rainfall or rapid snow melting in densely populated urban areas. The first two flooding factors were discussed previously (Piliksere et al, 2011). The aims of the study were (1) the identification of the flood risk situations in densely populated areas, (2) the quantification of the flooding scenarios caused by rain and snow melting events of different return periods nowadays, in the near future (2021-2050), far future (2071-2100) taking into account the projections of climate change, (3) estimation of groundwater level for Riga city, (4) the building and calibration of the hydrological mathematical model based on SWMM (EPA, 2004) for the domain potentially vulnerable for rain and snow melt flooding events, (5) the calculation of rain and snow melting flood events with different return periods, (6) mapping the potentially flooded areas on a fine grid. The time series of short term precipitation events during warm time period of year (id est. rain events) were analyzed for 35 year long time period. Annual maxima of precipitation intensity for events with different duration (5 min; 15 min; 1h; 3h; 6h; 12h; 1 day; 2 days; 4 days; 10 days) were calculated. The time series of long term simultaneous precipitation data and observations of the reduction of thickness of snow cover were analyzed for 27 year long time period. Snow thawing periods were detected and maximum of snow melting intensity for events with different intensity (1day; 2 days; 4 days; 7 days; 10 days) were calculated. According to the occurrence probability six scenarios for each event for nowadays, near and far future with return period once in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years were constructed based on

Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

"Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood": Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazrus, Heather; Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Bostrom, Ann

2016-02-01

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder-area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Collaborative modelling for active involvement of stakeholders in urban flood risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Evers

2012-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to enhance the role of local stakeholders in dealing with urban floods. The concept is based on the DIANE-CM project (Decentralised Integrated Analysis and Enhancement of Awareness through Collaborative Modelling and Management of Flood Risk of the 2nd ERANET CRUE funding initiative. The main objective of the project was to develop and test an advanced methodology for enhancing the resilience of local communities to flooding. Through collaborative modelling, a social learning process was initiated that enhances the social capacity of the stakeholders due to the interaction process. The other aim of the project was to better understand how data from hazard and vulnerability analyses and improved maps, as well as from the near real-time flood prediction, can be used to initiate a public dialogue (i.e. collaborative mapping and planning activities in order to carry out more informed and shared decision-making processes and to enhance flood risk awareness. The concept of collaborative modelling was applied in two case studies: (1 the Cranbrook catchment in the UK, with focus on pluvial flooding; and (2 the Alster catchment in Germany, with focus on fluvial flooding. As a result of the interactive and social learning process, supported by sociotechnical instruments, an understanding of flood risk was developed amongst the stakeholders and alternatives for flood risk management for the respective case study area were jointly developed and ranked as a basis for further planning and management.

Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoaib Ahmed

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorenzo Alfieri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

The Impacts of Pelosika and Ameroro Dams in the Flood Control Performance of Konaweha River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arif Sidik

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Konaweeha watershed is the largest watershed in Southeast Sulawesi with Konaweeha River as the main river. The main issues in Konaweeha Watershed is floods that occur caused damage to infrastructure and public facilities, lowering agricultural production, and cause fatalities. One of the government's efforts to cope with the flooding problem in Konaweeha Watershed is planning the construction of multi-purpose dams in the upstream of Konaweeha Watershed that is Pelosika Dam and Ameroso Dam. Necessary to study the flood control performance of the two dams. Analyses were performed with hydrologic-hydraulic modeling using HEC-HMS software (Hydrologic Modelling System version 4.0 and HEC-RAS (River Analysis System version 4.1. The design rainfalls that were used as input to the model were 2 year, 5-year, 10-year and 25 year. Scenarios used in this study are: (1 Existing Scenario (2 Pelosika Dam Scenario; (3 Ameroro Dam Scenario; (4 Pelosika and Ameroro Dams Scenario. The results showed the maximum water surface elevation along the downstream of Konaweeha River in Scenario (2 and (4 were almost the same in the 2 and 5 years return period design flood. However, in case of 10 and 25 years return period, the difference of maximum water surface elevation at downstream of Konaweeha River was slightly significant. Furthermore, the damping efficiency of the peak discharge (at Probably Maximum Flood or PMF was found to be 71.70% and 18.18% for the individual Pelosika Dam and Ameroro Dam respectively. Further discussion suggests the development of Pelosika Dam as the higher priority rather than that of the Ameroro Dam.

Demand analysis of flood insurance by using logistic regression model and genetic algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Sidi, P.; Mamat, M. B.; Sukono; Supian, S.; Putra, A. S.

2018-03-01

Citarum River floods in the area of South Bandung Indonesia, often resulting damage to some buildings belonging to the people living in the vicinity. One effort to alleviate the risk of building damage is to have flood insurance. The main obstacle is not all people in the Citarum basin decide to buy flood insurance. In this paper, we intend to analyse the decision to buy flood insurance. It is assumed that there are eight variables that influence the decision of purchasing flood assurance, include: income level, education level, house distance with river, building election with road, flood frequency experience, flood prediction, perception on insurance company, and perception towards government effort in handling flood. The analysis was done by using logistic regression model, and to estimate model parameters, it is done with genetic algorithm. The results of the analysis shows that eight variables analysed significantly influence the demand of flood insurance. These results are expected to be considered for insurance companies, to influence the decision of the community to be willing to buy flood insurance.

Prospects and requirements for an operational modelling unit in flood crisis situations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anders Katharina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Dike failure events pose severe flood crisis situations on areas in the hinterland of dikes. In recent decades the importance of being prepared for dike breaches has been increasingly recognized. However, the pre-assessment of inundation resulting from dike breaches is possible only based on scenarios, which might not reflect the situation of a real event. This paper presents a setup and workflow that allows to model dike breachinduced inundation operationally, i.e. when an event is imminent or occurring. A comprehensive system setup of an operational modelling unit has been developed and implemented in the frame of a federal project in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany. The modelling unit setup comprises a powerful methodology of flood modelling and elaborated operational guidelines for crisis situations. Nevertheless, it is of fundamental importance that the modelling unit is instated prior to flood events as a permanent system. Moreover the unit needs to be fully integrated in flood crisis management. If these crucial requirements are met, a modelling unit is capable of fundamentally supporting flood management with operational prognoses of adequate quality even in the limited timeframe of crisis situations.

Geological setting control of flood dynamics in lowland rivers (Poland).

Science.gov (United States)

Wierzbicki, Grzegorz; Ostrowski, Piotr; Falkowski, Tomasz; Mazgajski, Michał

2018-04-27

We aim to answer a question: how does the geological setting affect flood dynamics in lowland alluvial rivers? The study area covers three river reaches: not trained, relatively large on the European scale, flowing in broad valleys cut in the landscape of old glacial plains. We focus on the locations where levees [both: a) natural or b) artificial] were breached during flood. In these locations we identify (1) the erosional traces of flood (crevasse channels) on the floodplain displayed on DEM derived from ALS LIDAR. In the main river channel, we perform drillings in order to measure the depth of the suballuvial surface and to locate (2) the protrusions of bedrock resistant to erosion. We juxtapose on one map: (1) the floodplain geomorphology with (2) the geological data from the river channel. The results from each of the three study reaches are presented on maps prepared in the same manner in order to enable a comparison of the regularities of fluvial processes written in (1) the landscape and driven by (2) the geological setting. These processes act in different river reaches: (a) not embanked and dominated by ice jam floods, (b) embanked and dominated by rainfall and ice jam floods. We also analyse hydrological data to present hydrodynamic descriptions of the flood. Our principal results indicate similarity of (1) distinctive erosional patterns and (2) specific geological features in all three study reaches. We draw the conclusion: protrusions of suballuvial bedrock control the flood dynamics in alluvial rivers. It happens in both types of rivers. In areas where the floodplain remains natural, the river inundates freely during every flood. In other areas the floodplain has been reclaimed by humans who constructed an artificial levee system, which protects the flood-prone area from inundation, until levee breach occurs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors of diarrhoea among flood victims: a controlled epidemiological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, N C; Biswas, R; Manna, A

2001-01-01

The concept and practice of 'disaster preparedness and response', instead of traditional casualty relief, is relatively new. Vulnerability analysis and health risks assessment of disaster prone communities are important prerequisites of meaningful preparedness and effective response against any calamity. In this community based study, the risk of diarrhoeal disease and its related epidemiological factors were analysed by collecting data from two selected flood prone block of Midnapur district of West Bengal. The information was compared with that of another population living in two non-flood prone blocks of the same district. The study showed that diarrhoeal disease was the commonest morbidity in flood prone population. Some behaviours, like use of pond water for utensil wash and kitchen purpose, hand washing after defecation without soap, improper hand washing before eating, open field defecation, storage of drinking water in wide mouth vessels etc. were found to be associated with high attack rate of diarrhoea, in both study and control population during flood season compared to pre-flood season. Attack rates were also significantly higher in flood prone population than that of population in non-flood prone area during the same season. Necessity of both community education for proper water use behaviour and personal hygiene along with ensuring safe water and sanitation facilities of flood affected communities were emphasized.

Combining Empirical and Stochastic Models for Extreme Floods Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

2013-12-01

Hydrological models can be defined as physical, mathematical or empirical. The latter class uses mathematical equations independent of the physical processes involved in the hydrological system. The linear regression and Gradex (Gradient of Extreme values) are classic examples of empirical models. However, conventional empirical models are still used as a tool for hydrological analysis by probabilistic approaches. In many regions in the world, watersheds are not gauged. This is true even in developed countries where the gauging network has continued to decline as a result of the lack of human and financial resources. Indeed, the obvious lack of data in these watersheds makes it impossible to apply some basic empirical models for daily forecast. So we had to find a combination of rainfall-runoff models in which it would be possible to create our own data and use them to estimate the flow. The estimated design floods would be a good choice to illustrate the difficulties facing the hydrologist for the construction of a standard empirical model in basins where hydrological information is rare. The construction of the climate-hydrological model, which is based on frequency analysis, was established to estimate the design flood in the Anseghmir catchments, Morocco. The choice of using this complex model returns to its ability to be applied in watersheds where hydrological information is not sufficient. It was found that this method is a powerful tool for estimating the design flood of the watershed and also other hydrological elements (runoff, volumes of water...).The hydrographic characteristics and climatic parameters were used to estimate the runoff, water volumes and design flood for different return periods.

Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

2015-12-01

Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Di Baldassarre

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.

Flood modelling : Parameterisation and inflow uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mukolwe, M.M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Werner, M.; Solomatine, D.P.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of uncertainty in hydraulic modelling of floods, focusing on the inaccuracy caused by inflow errors and parameter uncertainty. In particular, the study develops a method to propagate the uncertainty induced by, firstly, application of a stage–discharge rating curve

Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slobodan Kolaković

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

Flood simulation model using XP-SWMM along Terengganu River ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Malaysia is one of the tropical countries in the world with heavy rainfall throughout the year and floods are the most common disaster in Malaysia. Flood simulation model was carried out along Terengganu River for dry and rainy seasons. The result of the simulation shows the water level reached its maximum level at the 1st ...

Developing Fast and Reliable Flood Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thrysøe, Cecilie; Toke, Jens; Borup, Morten

2016-01-01

. A surrogate model is set up for a case study area in Aarhus, Denmark, to replace a MIKE FLOOD model. The drainage surrogates are able to reproduce the MIKE URBAN results for a set of rain inputs. The coupled drainage-surface surrogate model lacks details in the surface description which reduces its overall...... accuracy. The model shows no instability, hence larger time steps can be applied, which reduces the computational time by more than a factor 1400. In conclusion, surrogate models show great potential for usage in urban water modelling....

Quasi-continuous stochastic simulation framework for flood modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Moustakis, Yiannis; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

Typically, flood modelling in the context of everyday engineering practices is addressed through event-based deterministic tools, e.g., the well-known SCS-CN method. A major shortcoming of such approaches is the ignorance of uncertainty, which is associated with the variability of soil moisture conditions and the variability of rainfall during the storm event.In event-based modeling, the sole expression of uncertainty is the return period of the design storm, which is assumed to represent the acceptable risk of all output quantities (flood volume, peak discharge, etc.). On the other hand, the varying antecedent soil moisture conditions across the basin are represented by means of scenarios (e.g., the three AMC types by SCS),while the temporal distribution of rainfall is represented through standard deterministic patterns (e.g., the alternative blocks method). In order to address these major inconsistencies,simultaneously preserving the simplicity and parsimony of the SCS-CN method, we have developed a quasi-continuous stochastic simulation approach, comprising the following steps: (1) generation of synthetic daily rainfall time series; (2) update of potential maximum soil moisture retention, on the basis of accumulated five-day rainfall; (3) estimation of daily runoff through the SCS-CN formula, using as inputs the daily rainfall and the updated value of soil moisture retention;(4) selection of extreme events and application of the standard SCS-CN procedure for each specific event, on the basis of synthetic rainfall.This scheme requires the use of two stochastic modelling components, namely the CastaliaR model, for the generation of synthetic daily data, and the HyetosMinute model, for the disaggregation of daily rainfall to finer temporal scales. Outcomes of this approach are a large number of synthetic flood events, allowing for expressing the design variables in statistical terms and thus properly evaluating the flood risk.

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

2018-05-01

Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting based on different-resolution distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, J.

2017-12-01

Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting is very important for a distributed hydrological model in the application. There are some challenges including the model's spatial resolution effect, model performance and accuracy and so on. To cope with the challenge of the model's spatial resolution effect, different model resolution including 1000m*1000m, 600m*600m, 500m*500m, 400m*400m, 200m*200m were used to build the distributed hydrological model—Liuxihe model respectively. The purpose is to find which one is the best resolution for Liuxihe model in Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting. This study sets up a physically based distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting of the Liujiang River basin in south China. Terrain data digital elevation model (DEM), soil type and land use type are downloaded from the website freely. The model parameters are optimized by using an improved Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) algorithm; And parameter optimization could reduce the parameter uncertainty that exists for physically deriving model parameters. The different model resolution (200m*200m—1000m*1000m ) are proposed for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood with the Liuxihe model in this study. The best model's spatial resolution effect for flood simulation and forecasting is 200m*200m.And with the model's spatial resolution reduction, the model performance and accuracy also become worse and worse. When the model resolution is 1000m*1000m, the flood simulation and forecasting result is the worst, also the river channel divided based on this resolution is differs from the actual one. To keep the model with an acceptable performance, minimum model spatial resolution is needed. The suggested threshold model spatial resolution for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood is a 500m*500m grid cell, but the model spatial resolution with a 200m*200m grid cell is recommended in this study to keep the model at a best performance.

[Light response characteristics of photosynthesis and model comparison of Distylium chinense in different flooding durations].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ze-bin; Cheng, Rui-mei; Xiao, Wen-fa; Guo, Quan-shui; Wang, Na

2015-04-01

The light responses of photosynthesis of two-year-old Distytum chinense seedlings subjected to a simulated reservoir flooding environment in autumn and winter seasons were measured by using a Li-6400 XT portable photosynthesis system, and the light response curves were fitted and analyzed by three models of the rectangular hyperbola, non-rectangular hyperbola and modified rectangular hyperbola to investigate the applicability of different light response models for the D. chinense in different flooding durations and the adaption regulation of light response parameters to flooding stress. The results showed that the fitting effect of the non-rectangular hyperbola model for light response process of D. chinense under normal growth condition and under short-term flooding (15 days of flooding) was better than that of the other two models, while the fitting effect of the modified rectangular hyperbola model for light response process of D. chinense under longer-term flooding (30, 45 and 60 days of flooding) was better than that of the other two models. The modified rectangular hyperbola model gave the best fitted results of light compensation point (LCP) , maximum net photosynthetic rate (P(n max)) and light saturation point (LSP), and the non-rectangular hyperbola model gave the best fitted result of dark respiration rate (R(d)). The apparent quantum yield (Φ), P(n max) and LSP of D. chinense gradually decreased, and the LCP and R(d) of D. chinense gradually increased in early flooding (30 days), but D. chinense gradually produced adaptability for flooding as the flooding duration continued to increase, and various physiological indexes were gradually stabilized. Thus, this species has adaptability to some degree to the flooding environment.

Modeling Flood Insurance Penetration in the European Non-Life Market: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Mohan, P.; Thomson, M.-K.; Das, A.

2012-04-01

Non-life property insurance plays a significant role in assessing and managing economic risk. Understanding the exposure, or property at risk, helps insurers and reinsurers to better categorize and manage their portfolios. However, the nature of the flood peril, in particular adverse selection, has led to a complex system of different insurance covers and policies across Europe owing to its public and private distinctions based on premiums provided as ex ante or ex post, socio-economic characterization and various compensation schemes. To model this significant level of complexity within the European flood insurance market requires not only extensive data research, close understanding of insurance companies and associations as well as historic flood events, but also careful evaluation of the flood hazard in terms of return periods and flood extents, and the economic/ financial background of the geographies involved. This abstract explores different approaches for modeling the flood insurance penetration rates in Europe depending on the information available and complexity involved. For countries which have either a regulated market with mandatory or high penetration rate, as for example found in the UK, France and Switzerland, or indeed countries with negligible insurance cover such as Luxembourg, assumptions about the penetration rates can be made at country level. However, in countries with a private insurance market, the picture becomes inherently more complex. For example in both Austria and Germany, flood insurance is generally restricted, associated with high costs to the insured or not available at all in high risk areas. In order to better manage flood risk, the Austria and German government agencies produced the risk classification systems HORA and ZÜRS, respectively, which categorize risk into four risk zones based on the exceedance probability of a flood occurrence. Except for regions that have preserved mandatory flood inclusion from past policies

Spatial Modeling of Flood Duration in Amazonian Floodplains Through Radar Remote Sensing and Generalized Linear Models

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira-Ferreira, J.; Francisco, M. S.; Silva, T. S. F.

2017-12-01

Amazon floodplains play an important role in biodiversity maintenance and provide important ecosystem services. Flood duration is the prime factor modulating biogeochemical cycling in Amazonian floodplain systems, as well as influencing ecosystem structure and function. However, due to the absence of accurate terrain information, fine-scale hydrological modeling is still not possible for most of the Amazon floodplains, and little is known regarding the spatio-temporal behavior of flooding in these environments. Our study presents an new approach for spatial modeling of flood duration, using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Generalized Linear Modeling. Our focal study site was Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve, in the Central Amazon. We acquired a series of L-band ALOS-1/PALSAR Fine-Beam mosaics, chosen to capture the widest possible range of river stage heights at regular intervals. We then mapped flooded area on each image, and used the resulting binary maps as the response variable (flooded/non-flooded) for multiple logistic regression. Explanatory variables were accumulated precipitation 15 days prior and the water stage height recorded in the Mamirauá lake gauging station observed for each image acquisition date, Euclidean distance from the nearest drainage, and slope, terrain curvature, profile curvature, planform curvature and Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) derived from the 30-m SRTM DEM. Model results were validated with water levels recorded by ten pressure transducers installed within the floodplains, from 2014 to 2016. The most accurate model included water stage height and HAND as explanatory variables, yielding a RMSE of ±38.73 days of flooding per year when compared to the ground validation sites. The largest disagreements were 57 days and 83 days for two validation sites, while remaining locations achieved absolute errors lower than 38 days. In five out of nine validation sites, the model predicted flood durations with

Association between floods and infectious diarrhea and their effect modifiers in Hunan province, China: A two-stage model.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Feifei; Zhang, Ying; Li, Jing; Liu, Xuena; Ding, Guoyong; Zhang, Caixia; Liu, Qiyong; Jiang, Baofa

2018-06-01

Understanding the potential links between floods and infectious diarrhea is important under the context of climate change. However, little is known about the risk of infectious diarrhea after floods and what factors could modify these effects in China. This study aims to quantitatively examine the relationship between floods and infectious diarrhea and their effect modifiers. Weekly number of infectious diarrhea cases from 2004 to 2011 during flood season in Hunan province were supplied by the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Flood and meteorological data over the same period were obtained. A two-stage model was used to estimate a provincial average association and their effect modifiers between floods and infectious diarrhea, accounting for other confounders. A total of 134,571 cases of infectious diarrhea were notified from 2004 to 2011. After controlling for seasonality, long-term trends, and meteorological factors, floods were significantly associated with infectious diarrhea in the provincial level with a cumulative RR of 1.22 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.43) with a lagged effect of 0-1 week. Geographic locations and economic levels were identified as effect modifiers, with a higher impact of floods on infectious diarrhea in the western and regions with a low economic level of Hunan. Our study provides strong evidence of a positive association between floods and infectious diarrhea in the study area. Local control strategies for public health should be taken in time to prevent and reduce the risk of infectious diarrhea after floods, especially for the vulnerable regions identified. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling using random forests and Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai

2015-04-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are increasingly based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with considerable uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention recently, they are hardly applied in flood damage assessments. Most of the damage models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. This presentation will show approaches for probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling on the micro- and meso-scale and discuss their potential and limitations. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Vogel, K., Riggelsen, C., Scherbaum, F., Merz, B. (2014): How useful are complex flood damage models? - Water Resources Research, 50, 4, p. 3378-3395.

Modeling multi-source flooding disaster and developing simulation framework in Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Cui, X.; Zhang, W.

2016-12-01

Most Delta regions of the world are densely populated and with advanced economies. However, due to impact of the multi-source flooding (upstream flood, rainstorm waterlogging, storm surge flood), the Delta regions is very vulnerable. The academic circles attach great importance to the multi-source flooding disaster in these areas. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in south China is selected as the research area. Based on analysis of natural and environmental characteristics data of the Delta urban agglomeration(remote sensing data, land use data, topographic map, etc.), hydrological monitoring data, research of the uneven distribution and process of regional rainfall, the relationship between the underlying surface and the parameters of runoff, effect of flood storage pattern, we use an automatic or semi-automatic method for dividing spatial units to reflect the runoff characteristics in urban agglomeration, and develop an Multi-model Ensemble System in changing environment, including urban hydrologic model, parallel computational 1D&2D hydrodynamic model, storm surge forecast model and other professional models, the system will have the abilities like real-time setting a variety of boundary conditions, fast and real-time calculation, dynamic presentation of results, powerful statistical analysis function. The model could be optimized and improved by a variety of verification methods. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471427); Special Basic Research Key Fund for Central Public Scientific Research Institutes.

A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

2015-04-01

Indroduction Urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and it has significant economic and social consequences. While the cost of the direct flood damages of urban flooding is well understood, the indirect damages, like the water borne diseases is in general still poorly understood. Climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of urban flooding in many countries which is likely to increase water borne diseases. Diarrheal diseases are most prevalent in developing countries, where poor sanitation, poor drinking water and poor surface water quality causes a high disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. The level of water borne diarrhea in countries with well-developed water and waste water infrastructure has been reduced to an acceptable level, and the population in general do not consider waste water as being a health risk. Hence, exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water still has the potential to cause transmission of diarrheal diseases. When managing urban flooding and planning urban climate change adaptations, health risks are rarely taken into consideration. This paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and the health risks caused by direct human contact with flood water and provides an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population through the use of intelligent urban flood risk management. Methodology We have linked hydrodynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the risk of infection caused by exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water. The deterministic model MIKE Flood, which integrates the sewer network model in MIKE Urban and the 2D surface model MIKE21, was used to calculate the concentration of pathogens in the

Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tina Gerl

Full Text Available Risk-based approaches have been increasingly accepted and operationalized in flood risk management during recent decades. For instance, commercial flood risk models are used by the insurance industry to assess potential losses, establish the pricing of policies and determine reinsurance needs. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools since the 1980s, loss estimates still reflect high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This requires an assessment of the validity and robustness of loss models as it affects prioritization and investment decision in flood risk management as well as regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry. Hence, more effort is needed to quantify uncertainties and undertake validations. Due to a lack of detailed and reliable flood loss data, first order validations are difficult to accomplish, so that model comparisons in terms of benchmarking are essential. It is checked if the models are informed by existing data and knowledge and if the assumptions made in the models are aligned with the existing knowledge. When this alignment is confirmed through validation or benchmarking exercises, the user gains confidence in the models. Before these benchmarking exercises are feasible, however, a cohesive survey of existing knowledge needs to be undertaken. With that aim, this work presents a review of flood loss-or flood vulnerability-relationships collected from the public domain and some professional sources. Our survey analyses 61 sources consisting of publications or software packages, of which 47 are reviewed in detail. This exercise results in probably the most complete review of flood loss models to date containing nearly a thousand vulnerability functions. These functions are highly heterogeneous and only about half of the loss models are found to be accompanied by explicit validation at the time of their proposal. This paper

A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerl, Tina; Kreibich, Heidi; Franco, Guillermo; Marechal, David; Schröter, Kai

2016-01-01

Risk-based approaches have been increasingly accepted and operationalized in flood risk management during recent decades. For instance, commercial flood risk models are used by the insurance industry to assess potential losses, establish the pricing of policies and determine reinsurance needs. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools since the 1980s, loss estimates still reflect high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This requires an assessment of the validity and robustness of loss models as it affects prioritization and investment decision in flood risk management as well as regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry. Hence, more effort is needed to quantify uncertainties and undertake validations. Due to a lack of detailed and reliable flood loss data, first order validations are difficult to accomplish, so that model comparisons in terms of benchmarking are essential. It is checked if the models are informed by existing data and knowledge and if the assumptions made in the models are aligned with the existing knowledge. When this alignment is confirmed through validation or benchmarking exercises, the user gains confidence in the models. Before these benchmarking exercises are feasible, however, a cohesive survey of existing knowledge needs to be undertaken. With that aim, this work presents a review of flood loss-or flood vulnerability-relationships collected from the public domain and some professional sources. Our survey analyses 61 sources consisting of publications or software packages, of which 47 are reviewed in detail. This exercise results in probably the most complete review of flood loss models to date containing nearly a thousand vulnerability functions. These functions are highly heterogeneous and only about half of the loss models are found to be accompanied by explicit validation at the time of their proposal. This paper exemplarily presents

A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Franco, Guillermo; Marechal, David

2016-01-01

Risk-based approaches have been increasingly accepted and operationalized in flood risk management during recent decades. For instance, commercial flood risk models are used by the insurance industry to assess potential losses, establish the pricing of policies and determine reinsurance needs. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools since the 1980s, loss estimates still reflect high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This requires an assessment of the validity and robustness of loss models as it affects prioritization and investment decision in flood risk management as well as regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry. Hence, more effort is needed to quantify uncertainties and undertake validations. Due to a lack of detailed and reliable flood loss data, first order validations are difficult to accomplish, so that model comparisons in terms of benchmarking are essential. It is checked if the models are informed by existing data and knowledge and if the assumptions made in the models are aligned with the existing knowledge. When this alignment is confirmed through validation or benchmarking exercises, the user gains confidence in the models. Before these benchmarking exercises are feasible, however, a cohesive survey of existing knowledge needs to be undertaken. With that aim, this work presents a review of flood loss–or flood vulnerability–relationships collected from the public domain and some professional sources. Our survey analyses 61 sources consisting of publications or software packages, of which 47 are reviewed in detail. This exercise results in probably the most complete review of flood loss models to date containing nearly a thousand vulnerability functions. These functions are highly heterogeneous and only about half of the loss models are found to be accompanied by explicit validation at the time of their proposal. This paper exemplarily

Improving a DSM Obtained by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Flood Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Mourato, Sandra; Fernandez, Paulo; Pereira, Luísa; Moreira, Madalena

2017-12-01

According to the EU flood risks directive, flood hazard map must be used to assess the flood risk. These maps can be developed with hydraulic modelling tools using a Digital Surface Runoff Model (DSRM). During the last decade, important evolutions of the spatial data processing has been developed which will certainly improve the hydraulic models results. Currently, images acquired with Red/Green/Blue (RGB) camera transported by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are seen as a good alternative data sources to represent the terrain surface with a high level of resolution and precision. The question is if the digital surface model obtain with this data is adequate enough for a good representation of the hydraulics flood characteristics. For this purpose, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was run with 4 different DSRM for an 8.5 km reach of the Lis River in Portugal. The computational performance of the 4 modelling implementations is evaluated. Two hydrometric stations water level records were used as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model. The records from a third hydrometric station were used to validate the optimal DSRM. The HEC-RAS results had the best performance during the validation step were the ones where the DSRM with integration of the two altimetry data sources.

Surface water flood risk and management strategies for London: An Agent-Based Model approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenkins Katie

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flooding is recognised as one of the most common and costliest natural disasters in England. Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall is known as ‘surface water flooding’, considered to be the most likely cause of flood events and one of the greatest short-term climate risks for London. In this paper we present results from a novel Agent-Based Model designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options, different agents, and the role of flood insurance and the flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The model illustrates how investment in adaptation options could reduce London’s surface water flood risk, today and in the future. However, benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, it offers no additional benefits in terms of overall risk reduction, and will face increasing pressure due to rising surface water flood risk in the future. The modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for reviewing the proposed Flood Re scheme, as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes, and broader multi-sectoral partnerships, to incentivise flood risk management in the UK and internationally.

BN-FLEMOps pluvial - A probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods

Science.gov (United States)

Roezer, V.; Kreibich, H.; Schroeter, K.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Pluvial flood events, such as in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2011, Beijing (China) in 2012 or Houston (USA) in 2016, have caused severe losses to urban dwellings in recent years. These floods are caused by storm events with high rainfall rates well above the design levels of urban drainage systems, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings. A projected increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in many areas and an ongoing urbanization may increase pluvial flood losses in the future. For an efficient risk assessment and adaptation to pluvial floods, a quantification of the flood risk is needed. Few loss models have been developed particularly for pluvial floods. These models usually use simple waterlevel- or rainfall-loss functions and come with very high uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties and improve the loss estimation, we present a probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods based on empirical data. The model was developed in a two-step process using a machine learning approach and a comprehensive database comprising 783 records of direct building and content damage of private households. The data was gathered through surveys after four different pluvial flood events in Germany between 2005 and 2014. In a first step, linear and non-linear machine learning algorithms, such as tree-based and penalized regression models were used to identify the most important loss influencing factors among a set of 55 candidate variables. These variables comprise hydrological and hydraulic aspects, early warning, precaution, building characteristics and the socio-economic status of the household. In a second step, the most important loss influencing variables were used to derive a probabilistic multi-variable pluvial flood loss estimation model based on Bayesian Networks. Two different networks were tested: a score-based network learned from the data and a network based on expert knowledge. Loss predictions are made

Quantifying Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Mapping Using Streamflow Ensembles and Multiple Hydraulic Modeling Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseiny, S. M. H.; Zarzar, C.; Gomez, M.; Siddique, R.; Smith, V.; Mejia, A.; Demir, I.

2016-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) provides a platform for operationalize nationwide flood inundation forecasting and mapping. The ability to model flood inundation on a national scale will provide invaluable information to decision makers and local emergency officials. Often, forecast products use deterministic model output to provide a visual representation of a single inundation scenario, which is subject to uncertainty from various sources. While this provides a straightforward representation of the potential inundation, the inherent uncertainty associated with the model output should be considered to optimize this tool for decision making support. The goal of this study is to produce ensembles of future flood inundation conditions (i.e. extent, depth, and velocity) to spatially quantify and visually assess uncertainties associated with the predicted flood inundation maps. The setting for this study is located in a highly urbanized watershed along the Darby Creek in Pennsylvania. A forecasting framework coupling the NWM with multiple hydraulic models was developed to produce a suite ensembles of future flood inundation predictions. Time lagged ensembles from the NWM short range forecasts were used to account for uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecasts. The forecasts from the NWM were input to iRIC and HEC-RAS two-dimensional software packages, from which water extent, depth, and flow velocity were output. Quantifying the agreement between output ensembles for each forecast grid provided the uncertainty metrics for predicted flood water inundation extent, depth, and flow velocity. For visualization, a series of flood maps that display flood extent, water depth, and flow velocity along with the underlying uncertainty associated with each of the forecasted variables were produced. The results from this study demonstrate the potential to incorporate and visualize model uncertainties in flood inundation maps in order to identify the high flood risk zones.

Evaluating resilience of DNP3-controlled SCADA systems against event buffer flooding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan, Guanhua [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nicol, David M [UNIV OF IL; Jin, Dong [UNIV OF IL

2010-12-16

The DNP3 protocol is widely used in SCADA systems (particularly electrical power) as a means of communicating observed sensor state information back to a control center. Typical architectures using DNP3 have a two level hierarchy, where a specialized data aggregator device receives observed state from devices within a local region, and the control center collects the aggregated state from the data aggregator. The DNP3 communication between control center and data aggregator is asynchronous with the DNP3 communication between data aggregator and relays; this leads to the possibility of completely filling a data aggregator's buffer of pending events, when a relay is compromised or spoofed and sends overly many (false) events to the data aggregator. This paper investigates how a real-world SCADA device responds to event buffer flooding. A Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) model is developed for understanding this. The DTMC model is validated by a Moebius simulation model and data collected on real SCADA testbed.

Flood Hazard Mapping using Hydraulic Model and GIS: A Case Study in Mandalay City, Myanmar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyu Kyu Sein

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the use of flood frequency analysis integrating with 1D Hydraulic model (HECRAS and Geographic Information System (GIS to prepare flood hazard maps of different return periods in Ayeyarwady River at Mandalay City in Myanmar. Gumbel’s distribution was used to calculate the flood peak of different return periods, namely, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years. The flood peak from frequency analysis were input into HEC-RAS model to find the corresponding flood level and extents in the study area. The model results were used in integrating with ArcGIS to generate flood plain maps. Flood depths and extents have been identified through flood plain maps. Analysis of 100 years return period flood plain map indicated that 157.88 km2 with the percentage of 17.54% is likely to be inundated. The predicted flood depth ranges varies from greater than 0 to 24 m in the flood plains and on the river. The range between 3 to 5 m were identified in the urban area of Chanayetharzan, Patheingyi, and Amarapua Townships. The highest inundated area was 85 km2 in the Amarapura Township.

Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

George E. Dzyacky

2010-11-23

The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillation columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid

Optimal control of diarrhea transmission in a flood evacuation zone

Science.gov (United States)

Erwina, N.; Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.

2014-03-01

Evacuation of residents and diarrhea disease outbreak in evacuation zone have become serious problem that frequently happened during flood periods. Limited clean water supply and infrastructure in evacuation zone contribute to a critical spread of diarrhea. Transmission of diarrhea disease can be reduced by controlling clean water supply and treating diarrhea patients properly. These treatments require significant amount of budget, which may not be fulfilled in the fields. In his paper, transmission of diarrhea disease in evacuation zone using SIRS model is presented as control optimum problem with clean water supply and rate of treated patients as input controls. Existence and stability of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis are investigated analytically for constant input controls. Optimum clean water supply and rate of treatment are found using optimum control technique. Optimal results for transmission of diarrhea and the corresponding controls during the period of observation are simulated numerically. The optimum result shows that transmission of diarrhea disease can be controlled with proper combination of water supply and rate of treatment within allowable budget.

Analysis of Hydraulic Flood Control Structure at Putat Boro River

OpenAIRE

Ruzziyatno, Ruhban

2015-01-01

Putat Boro River is one of the main drainage systems of Surakarta city which drains into Bengawan Solo river. The primary problem when flood occur is the higher water level of Bengawan Solo than Boro River and then backwater occur and inundates Putat Boro River. The objective of the study is to obtain operational method of Putat Boro River floodgate to control both inflows and outflows not only during flood but also normal condition. It also aims to know the Putat Boro rivers floodgate op...

Model Predictive Control application for real time operation of controlled structures for the Water Authority Noorderzijlvest, The Netherlands

Science.gov (United States)

van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Gooijer, Jan; Knot, Floris; Talsma, Jan

2015-04-01

In the Netherlands, flood protection has always been a key issue to protect settlements against storm surges and riverine floods. Whereas flood protection traditionally focused on structural measures, nowadays the availability of meteorological and hydrological forecasts enable the application of more advanced real-time control techniques for operating the existing hydraulic infrastructure in an anticipatory and more efficient way. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a powerful technique to derive optimal control variables with the help of model based predictions evaluated against a control objective. In a project for the regional water authority Noorderzijlvest in the north of the Netherlands, it has been shown that MPC can increase the safety level of the system during flood events by an anticipatory pre-release of water. Furthermore, energy costs of pumps can be reduced by making tactical use of the water storage and shifting pump activities during normal operating conditions to off-peak hours. In this way cheap energy is used in combination of gravity flow through gates during low tide periods. MPC has now been implemented for daily operational use of the whole water system of the water authority Noorderzijlvest. The system developed to a real time decision support system which not only supports the daily operation but is able to directly implement the optimal control settings at the structures. We explain how we set-up and calibrated a prediction model (RTC-Tools) that is accurate and fast enough for optimization purposes, and how we integrated it in the operational flood early warning system (Delft-FEWS). Beside the prediction model, the weights and the factors of the objective function are an important element of MPC, since they shape the control objective. We developed special features in Delft-FEWS to allow the operators to adjust the objective function in order to meet changing requirements and to evaluate different control strategies.

Estimation of antecedent wetness conditions for flood modelling in northern Morocco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Tramblay

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In northern Morocco are located most of the dams and reservoirs of the country, while this region is affected by severe rainfall events causing floods. To improve the management of the water regulation structures, there is a need to develop rainfall–runoff models to both maximize the storage capacity and reduce the risks caused by floods. In this study, a model is developed to reproduce the flood events for a 655 km² catchment located upstream of the 6th largest dam in Morocco. Constrained by data availability, a standard event-based model combining a SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number loss model and a Clark unit hydrograph was developed for hourly discharge simulation using 16 flood events that occurred between 1984 and 2008. The model was found satisfactory to reproduce the runoff and the temporal evolution of floods, even with limited rainfall data. Several antecedent wetness conditions estimators for the catchment were compared with the initial condition of the model. Theses estimators include an antecedent discharge index, an antecedent precipitation index and a continuous daily soil moisture accounting model (SMA, based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The SMA model performed the best to estimate the initial conditions of the event-based hydrological model (R² = 0.9. Its daily output has been compared with ASCAT and AMSR-E remote sensing data products, which were both able to reproduce with accuracy the daily simulated soil moisture dynamics at the catchment scale. This same approach could be implemented in other catchments of this region for operational purposes. The results of this study suggest that remote sensing data are potentially useful to estimate the soil moisture conditions in the case of ungauged catchments in Northern Africa.

Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model for Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, drinking water, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model for African regions using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.

A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

Flood Risk Characterization for the Eastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Ntelekos, A. A.

2009-04-01

Tropical cyclones landfalling in the eastern United States pose a major risk for insured property and can lead to extensive damage through storm surge flooding, inland flooding or extreme windspeeds. Current hurricane cat-models do not include calculations of inland flooding from the outer rainfall bands of tropical cyclones but the issue is becoming increasingly important for commercial insurance risk assessment. The results of this study could be used to feed into the next generation of hurricane cat-models and assist in the calculation of damages from inland hurricane flood damage. Annual maximum peak discharge records from more than 400 stations in the eastern United States with at least 75 years of record to examine the role of landfalling tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of inland flood risk for the eastern United States. In addition to examining tropical cyclone inland flood risk at specific locations, the spatial extent of extreme flooding from lanfalling tropical cyclones is analyzed. Analyses of temporal trends and abrupt changes in the mean and variance of annual flood peaks are performed. Change-point analysis is performed using the non-parametric Pettitt test. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Flood risk characterization centers on assessments of the spatial variation in "upper tail" properties of annual flood peak distributions. The modeling framework for flood frequency analysis is provided by the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS).

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Incorporating institutions and collective action into a sociohydrological model of flood resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, David J.; Sangwan, Nikhil; Sung, Kyungmin; Chen, Xi; Merwade, Venkatesh

2017-02-01

Stylized sociohydrological models have mainly used social memory aspects such as community awareness or sensitivity to connect hydrologic change and social response. However, social memory alone does not satisfactorily capture the details of how human behavior is translated into collective action for water resources governance. Nor is it the only social mechanism by which the two-way feedbacks of sociohydrology can be operationalized. This study contributes toward bridging of this gap by developing a sociohydrological model of a flood resilience that includes two additional components: (1) institutions for collective action, and (2) connections to an external economic system. Motivated by the case of community-managed flood protection systems (polders) in coastal Bangladesh, we use the model to understand critical general features that affect long-term resilience of human-flood systems. Our findings suggest that occasional adversity can enhance long-term resilience. Allowing some hydrological variability to enter into the polder can increase its adaptive capacity for resilience through the preservation of social norm for collective action. Further, there are potential trade-offs associated with optimization of flood resistance through structural measures. By reducing sensitivity to floods, the system may become more fragile under the double impact of floods and economic change.

Comparing the Performance of Commonly Available Digital Elevation Models in GIS-based Flood Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ybanez, R. L.; Lagmay, A. M. A.; David, C. P.

2016-12-01

With climatological hazards increasing globally, the Philippines is listed as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to its location in the Western Pacific. Flood hazards mapping and modelling is one of the responses by local government and research institutions to help prepare for and mitigate the effects of flood hazards that constantly threaten towns and cities in floodplains during the 6-month rainy season. Available digital elevation maps, which serve as the most important dataset used in 2D flood modelling, are limited in the Philippines and testing is needed to determine which of the few would work best for flood hazards mapping and modelling. Two-dimensional GIS-based flood modelling with the flood-routing software FLO-2D was conducted using three different available DEMs from the ASTER GDEM, the SRTM GDEM, and the locally available IfSAR DTM. All other parameters kept uniform, such as resolution, soil parameters, rainfall amount, and surface roughness, the three models were run over a 129-sq. kilometer watershed with only the basemap varying. The output flood hazard maps were compared on the basis of their flood distribution, extent, and depth. The ASTER and SRTM GDEMs contained too much error and noise which manifested as dissipated and dissolved hazard areas in the lower watershed where clearly delineated flood hazards should be present. Noise on the two datasets are clearly visible as erratic mounds in the floodplain. The dataset which produced the only feasible flood hazard map is the IfSAR DTM which delineates flood hazard areas clearly and properly. Despite the use of ASTER and SRTM with their published resolution and accuracy, their use in GIS-based flood modelling would be unreliable. Although not as accessible, only IfSAR or better datasets should be used for creating secondary products from these base DEM datasets. For developing countries which are most prone to hazards, but with limited choices for basemaps used in hazards

HYDRAULIC SIMULATION OF FLASH FLOOD AS TRIGGERED BY NATURAL DAM BREAK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanuar Tri Kurniawan

2015-05-01

Calibration model result showed that the height of natural dam significantly influence changes of water surface elevation at control point. Tracing of flood result in reconstruction of January 2006 flood showed the conformity with the real event. It was observed from the arrival time of flood at certain location. From obtained results, it can be concluded that simulation modeling gave the acceptable results.

Assessing uncertainty in SRTM elevations for global flood modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Hawker, L. P.; Rougier, J.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

The SRTM DEM is widely used as the topography input to flood models in data-sparse locations. Understanding spatial error in the SRTM product is crucial in constraining uncertainty about elevations and assessing the impact of these upon flood prediction. Assessment of SRTM error was carried out by Rodriguez et al (2006), but this did not explicitly quantify the spatial structure of vertical errors in the DEM, and nor did it distinguish between errors over different types of landscape. As a result, there is a lack of information about spatial structure of vertical errors of the SRTM in the landscape that matters most to flood models - the floodplain. Therefore, this study attempts this task by comparing SRTM, an error corrected SRTM product (The MERIT DEM of Yamazaki et al., 2017) and near truth LIDAR elevations for 3 deltaic floodplains (Mississippi, Po, Wax Lake) and a large lowland region (the Fens, UK). Using the error covariance function, calculated by comparing SRTM elevations to the near truth LIDAR, perturbations of the 90m SRTM DEM were generated, producing a catalogue of plausible DEMs. This allows modellers to simulate a suite of plausible DEMs at any aggregated block size above native SRTM resolution. Finally, the generated DEM's were input into a hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta, built using the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, to assess how DEM error affects the hydrodynamics and inundation extent across the domain. The end product of this is an inundation map with the probability of each pixel being flooded based on the catalogue of DEMs. In a world of increasing computer power, but a lack of detailed datasets, this powerful approach can be used throughout natural hazard modelling to understand how errors in the SRTM DEM can impact the hazard assessment.

Impact of Austrian hydropower plants on the flood control safety of the Hungarian Danube reach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zsuffa, I.

1999-01-01

Statistical analysis of daily water level data from four gauging stations along the Hungarian Danube reach has been carried out with the purpose of analysing the impact of the Austrian hydropower plants on the floods of the river. Conditional probability distribution functions of annual flood load maxima and annual number of floods were generated for the periods 1957-1976 and 1977-1996. By comparing these distribution functions, it could be shown that the flood load maxima have decreased, while the number of small and medium floods have increased during the past forty years. These changes indicate a decreased rate of flood superposition resulting from the barrages constructed in this period. The significantly decreased flood load maxima indicate that the Austrian barrage system has positive impact on the flood control safety of the Hungarian Danube reach

Advances in flash floods understanding and modelling derived from the FloodScale project in South-East France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Braud Isabelle

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean area is prone to intense rainfall events triggering flash floods, characterized by very short response times that sometimes lead to dramatic consequences in terms of casualties and damages. These events can affect large territories, but their impact may be very local in catchments that are generally ungauged. These events remain difficult to predict and the processes leading to their generation still need to be clarified. The HyMeX initiative (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, 2010-2020 aims at increasing our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean basin, in particular in terms of extreme events. In order to better understand processes leading to flash floods, a four-year experiment (2012-2015 was conducted in the Cévennes region (South-East France as part of the FloodScale project. Both continuous and opportunistic measurements during floods were conducted in two large catchments (Ardèche and Gard rivers with nested instrumentation from the hillslopes to catchments of about 1, 10, 100 to 1000 km2 covering contrasted geology and land use. Continuous measurements include distributed rainfall, stream water level, discharge, water temperature and conductivity and soil moisture measurements. Opportunistic measurements include surface soil moisture and geochemistry sampling during events and gauging of floods using non-contact methods: portable radars to measure surface water velocity or image sequence analysis using LS-PIV (Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry. During the period 2012-2014, and in particular during autumn 2014, several intense events affected the catchments and provided very rich data sets. Data collection was complemented with modelling activity aiming at simulating observed processes. The modelling strategy was setup through a wide range of scales, in order to test hypotheses about physical processes at the smallest scales, and aggregated functioning hypothesis at the largest

Comparison of physical and semi-empirical hydraulic models for flood inundation mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Tavakoly, A. A.; Afshari, S.; Omranian, E.; Feng, D.; Rajib, A.; Snow, A.; Cohen, S.; Merwade, V.; Fekete, B. M.; Sharif, H. O.; Beighley, E.

2016-12-01

Various hydraulic/GIS-based tools can be used for illustrating spatial extent of flooding for first-responders, policy makers and the general public. The objective of this study is to compare four flood inundation modeling tools: HEC-RAS-2D, Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), AutoRoute and Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND). There is a trade-off among accuracy, workability and computational demand in detailed, physics-based flood inundation models (e.g. HEC-RAS-2D and GSSHA) in contrast with semi-empirical, topography-based, computationally less expensive approaches (e.g. AutoRoute and HAND). The motivation for this study is to evaluate this trade-off and offer guidance to potential large-scale application in an operational prediction system. The models were assessed and contrasted via comparability analysis (e.g. overlapping statistics) by using three case studies in the states of Alabama, Texas, and West Virginia. The sensitivity and accuracy of physical and semi-eimpirical models in producing inundation extent were evaluated for the following attributes: geophysical characteristics (e.g. high topographic variability vs. flat natural terrain, urbanized vs. rural zones, effect of surface roughness paratermer value), influence of hydraulic structures such as dams and levees compared to unobstructed flow condition, accuracy in large vs. small study domain, effect of spatial resolution in topographic data (e.g. 10m National Elevation Dataset vs. 0.3m LiDAR). Preliminary results suggest that semi-empericial models tend to underestimate in a flat, urbanized area with controlled/managed river channel around 40% of the inundation extent compared to the physical models, regardless of topographic resolution. However, in places where there are topographic undulations, semi-empericial models attain relatively higher level of accuracy than they do in flat non-urbanized terrain.

Coarse Resolution SAR Imagery to Support Flood Inundation Models in Near Real Time

Science.gov (United States)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Schumann, Guy; Brandimarte, Luigia; Bates, Paul

2009-11-01

In recent years, the availability of new emerging data (e.g. remote sensing, intelligent wireless sensors, etc) has led to a sudden shift from a data-sparse to a data-rich environment for hydrological and hydraulic modelling. Furthermore, the increased socioeconomic relevance of river flood studies has motivated the development of complex methodologies for the simulation of the hydraulic behaviour of river systems. In this context, this study aims at assessing the capability of coarse resolution SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) imagery to support and quickly validate flood inundation models in near real time. A hydraulic model of a 98km reach of the River Po (Italy), previously calibrated on a high-magnitude flood event with extensive and high quality field data, is tested using a SAR flood image, acquired and processed in near real time, during the June 2008 low-magnitude event. Specifically, the image is an acquisition by the ENVISAT-ASAR sensor in wide swath mode and has been provided through ESA (European Space Agency) Fast Registration system at no cost 24 hours after the acquisition. The study shows that the SAR image enables validation and improvement of the model in a time shorter than the flood travel time. This increases the reliability of model predictions (e.g. water elevation and inundation width along the river reach) and, consequently, assists flood management authorities in undertaking the necessary prevention activities.

Evidence of a non-dimensional parameter controlling the flooding of PEMFC stack

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buaud, Fabrice; Lelandais, Damien [Heat and Energy Department, Polytech' Nantes, Nantes University, Rue Christian Pauc, BP50609, 44 306 Nantes Cedex 3 (France); Auvity, Bruno [Heat and Energy Department, Polytech' Nantes, Nantes University, Rue Christian Pauc, BP50609, 44 306 Nantes Cedex 3 (France); Laboratoire de Thermocinetique de Nantes (CNRS-UMR 6607) (France)

2008-06-15

Water management is a key issue to get satisfactory and stable Polymer exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) performances. The work reported in the present paper focuses on the determination of the operational conditions when using PEMFC stack working with ambient air without extra humidification. The objectives are to reduce as much as possible the auxiliaries consumptions. As far as the reaction air blower is concerned, the specific goal of the present tests is to find the minimum air flow rate to feed the PEMFC stack in order to prevent flooding. Our particular interest concerns the control of a PEMFC stack to power a prototype vehicle for the Shell Eco Marathon race. Tests are then conducted on a wide range of stoichiometry, for different values of current and stack temperature using ambient air. Flooding is shown to depend on all these parameters. A water balance calculation is developed comparing the amount of water produced by the electrochemical reaction to the amount of water transported as vapour in the exit air flow minus the amount of water incoming the stack in the ambient air. A non-dimensional number called the Flooding Number is constructed. This balance is first considered in the ideal case with the theoretical flow rate of reactants and products. It is shown that the stack temperature and the stoichiometry are the main order parameters and that conditions of ambient air have only secondary effects on the water balance. In a second step, the Flooding Number is evaluated for all the experimental tests. A critical Flooding Number appears clearly delimiting the range of operational conditions for which stack flooding appears. This result allows us to control the air blower and the cooling fan during the runs at the Shell Eco Marathon 2007 race in order to reduce hydrogen consumption due to auxiliaries. The non-dimensional number exhibited in the present paper is believed to be relevant to stack flooding. It can be used for any PEMFC stack to make clear

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus

Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

Calibration of HEC-Ras hydrodynamic model using gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Rui; Komma, Jürgen

2017-04-01

The estimation of flood is essential for disaster alleviation. Hydrodynamic models are implemented to predict the occurrence and variance of flood in different scales. In practice, the calibration of hydrodynamic models aims to search the best possible parameters for the representation the natural flow resistance. Recent years have seen the calibration of hydrodynamic models being more actual and faster following the advance of earth observation products and computer based optimization techniques. In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering River Analysis System (HEC-Ras) model was set up with high-resolution digital elevation model from Laser scanner for the river Inn in Tyrol, Austria. 10 largest flood events from 19 hourly discharge gauges and flood inundation maps were selected to calibrate the HEC-Ras model. Manning roughness values and lateral inflow factors as parameters were automatically optimized with the Shuffled complex with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA). Different objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, the timing of peak, peak value and Root-mean-square deviation) were used in single or multiple way. It was found that the lateral inflow factor was the most sensitive parameter. SP-UCI algorithm could avoid the local optimal and achieve efficient and effective parameters in the calibration of HEC-Ras model using flood extension images. As results showed, calibration by means of gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps, together with objective function of Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, was very robust to obtain more reliable flood simulation, and also to catch up with the peak value and the timing of peak.

Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Matingo

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013–2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015–2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized

Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding: A step toward vulnerability mitigation policies appraisal

Science.gov (United States)

Brémond, P.; Abrami, G.; Blanc, C.; Grelot, F.

2009-04-01

flood. In the case of farm activities, vulnerability mitigation consists in implementing measures which can be: physical (equipment or electric power system elevation), organizational (emergency or recovery plan) or financial (insurance). These measures aim at decreasing the total damage incurred by farmers in case of flooding. For instance, if equipment is elevated, it will not suffer direct damage such as degradation. As a consequence, equipment will be available to continue production or recovery tasks, thus, avoiding indirect damage such as delays, indebtedness… The effects of these policies on farms, in particular vulnerability mitigation cannot be appraised using current methodologies mainly because they do not consider farm as a whole and focus on direct damage at the land plot scale (loss of yield). Moreover, since vulnerability mitigation policies are quite recent, few examples of implementation exist and no feedback experience can be processed. Meanwhile, decision makers and financial actors require more justification of the efficiency of public fund by economic appraisal of the projects. On the Rhône River, decision makers asked for an economic evaluation of the program of farm vulnerability mitigation they plan to implement. This implies to identify the effects of the measures to mitigate farm vulnerability, and to classify them by comparing their efficacy (avoided damage) and their cost of implementation. In this presentation, we propose and discuss a conceptual model of vulnerability at the farm scale. The modelling, in Unified Modelling Language, enabled to represent the ties between spatial, organizational and temporal dimensions, which are central to understanding of farm vulnerability and resilience to flooding. Through this modelling, we encompass three goals: To improve the comprehension of farm vulnerability and create a framework that allow discussion with experts of different disciplines as well as with local farmers; To identify data which

May flood-poor periods be more dangerous than flood-rich periods?

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Kuil, Linda; Bloeschl, Guenter

2014-05-01

River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards experienced by populations that, since the earliest recorded civilisations, have settled in floodplains because they offer favourable conditions for trade, agriculture, and economic development. The occurrence of a flood may cause loss of lives and tremendous economic damages and, therefore, is rightly seen as a very negative event by the communities involved. Occurrence of many floods in a row is, of course, even more frustrating and is rightly considered a unbearable calamity. Unfortunately, the occurrence of many floods in a limited number of consecutive years is not unusual. In many places in the world, it has been observed that extreme floods do not arrive randomly but cluster in time into flood-poor and flood-rich periods consistent with the Hurst effect. If this is the case, when are the people more in danger? When should people be more scared? In flood-poor or flood-rich periods? In this work, a Socio-Hydrology model (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014) is used to show that, maybe counter-intuitively, flood-poor periods may be more dangerous than flood-rich periods. The model is a conceptualisation of a hypothetical setting of a city at a river where a community evolves, making choices between flood management options on the floodplain. The most important feedbacks between the economic, political, technological and hydrological processes of the evolution of that community are represented in the model. In particular, the model also accounts in a dynamic way for the evolution of the the community awareness to flood risk. Occurrence of floods tends to increase peoples' recognition that their property is in an area that is potentially at risk of flooding, both at the scales of individuals and communities, which is one of the main reasons why flood coping actions are taken. It is shown through examples that frequent flood events may result in moderate damages because they ensure that the

Introduction to flood control science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Dong U; Ha, Jin Uk; Kim, Dong Ha; Shin, Hong Ryeol; Song, Seok Hwan; Kim, Jin Gyu; Moon, Heon Cheol

2003-01-01

This book covers introduction, industrialization disaster such as Bhopal and Chernobyl disaster, earthquake disaster, volcano disaster, avalanche disaster including loss allocation and prevention measures, and natural fire by showing California, Yellowstone park and similarity between fire and flood. It also introduces climate change and disaster, Earth's greenhouse effect and disaster due to current sea level rise, flood damage, drought disaster, famine and drought, prediction of drought, population problems, outlook of world population, and disaster prevention administration system of Korea.

Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

The influence of controlled floods on fine sediment storage in debris fan-affected canyons of the Colorado River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Alexander, Jason S.; Kaplinski, Matt

2014-01-01

Prior to the construction of large dams on the Green and Colorado Rivers, annual floods aggraded sandbars in lateral flow-recirculation eddies with fine sediment scoured from the bed and delivered from upstream. Flows greater than normal dam operations may be used to mimic this process in an attempt to increase time-averaged sandbar size. These controlled floods may rebuild sandbars, but sediment deficit conditions downstream from the dams restrict the frequency that controlled floods produce beneficial results. Here, we integrate complimentary, long-term monitoring data sets from the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons downstream from Glen Canyon dam and the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore downstream from Flaming Gorge dam. Since the mid-1990s, several controlled floods have occurred in these canyon rivers. These controlled floods scour fine sediment from the bed and build sandbars in eddies, thus increasing channel relief. These changes are short-lived, however, as interflood dam operations erode sandbars within several months to years. Controlled flood response and interflood changes in bed elevation are more variable in Marble Canyon and Grand Canyon, likely reflecting more variable fine sediment supply and stronger transience in channel bed sediment storage. Despite these differences, neither system shows a trend in fine-sediment storage during the period in which controlled floods were monitored. These results demonstrate that controlled floods build eddy sandbars and increase channel relief for short interflood periods, and this response may be typical in other dam-influenced canyon rivers. The degree to which these features persist depends on the frequency of controlled floods, but careful consideration of sediment supply is necessary to avoid increasing the long-term sediment deficit.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Management using RISAT-1 derived Flood Inundation Areas, Cartosat-1 DEM and a River Flow Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kuldeep, K.; Garg, P. K.; Garg, R. D.

2017-12-01

The frequent occurrence of repeated flood events in many regions of the world causing damage to human life and property has augmented the need for effective flood risk management. Microwave satellite data is becoming an indispensable asset for monitoring of many environmental and climatic applications as numerous space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors are offering the data with high spatial resolutions and multi-polarization capabilities. The implementation and execution of Flood mapping, monitoring and management applications has become easier with the availability of SAR data which has obvious advantages over optical data due to its all weather, day and night capabilities. In this study, the exploitation of the SAR dataset for hydraulic modelling and disaster management has been highlighted using feature extraction techniques for water area identification and water level extraction within the floodplain. The availability of high precision digital elevation model generated from the Cartosat-1 stereo pairs has enhanced the capability of retrieving the water depth maps by incorporating the SAR derived flood extent maps. This paper illustrates the flood event on June 2013 in Yamuna River, Haryana, India. The water surface profile computed by combining the topographic data with the RISAT-1 data accurately reflects the true water line. Water levels that were computed by carrying out the modelling using hydraulic model in HECRAS also suggest that the water surface profiles provided by the combined use of topographic data and SAR accurately reflect the true water line. The proposed approach has also been found better in extraction of inundation within vegetated areas.

IMPACTS OF WETLAND DEGRADATION IN NIGER DELTA NIGERIA AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN FLOOD CONTROL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enwere Chidimma Loveline

2015-08-01

Full Text Available  Wetlands perform a wide variety of functions that include flood control, ground water recharge, shore line stabilization, storm protection and climate moderation. However, despite these huge wetland functions, it has witnessed poor appreciation and dreadful conditions. Niger Delta has witnessed constant coastal erosion and rising sea level, this has led to large portions of the landmass being eroded. This paper aims to review some environmental effects of flooding in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria to provide the desired knowledge of role that wetlands play in reducing flood impacts. However, having witnessed the flood, the experience opened my eyes to the environmental challenges facing Niger Delta with respect to Wetlands degradation, poor perception of wetland values and functions, poor environmental practices and non-implementation of environmental regulations. This memorable experience rekindled the desire and motivation to seek a solution to wetland degradation with the aim of recognizing significance of wetlands at the centre of achieving both livelihood and biodiversity improvements to address coastal flooding problem.The study therefore concludes that wetlands are very significant in flood control and thus the conservation and restoration of wetlands, should put in place measures to reduce wetland destruction.International Journal of EnvironmentVolume-4, Issue-3, June-August 2015Page: 177-184

A Well-Balanced and Fully Coupled Noncapacity Model for Dam-Break Flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiyuan Yue

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The last two decades have seen great progress in mathematical modeling of fluvial processes and flooding in terms of either approximation of the physical processes or dealing with the numerical difficulties. Yet attention to simultaneously taking advancements of both aspects is rarely paid. Here a well-balanced and fully coupled noncapacity model is presented of dam-break flooding over erodible beds. The governing equations are based on the complete mass and momentum conservation laws, implying fully coupled interactions between the dam-break flow and sediment transport. A well-balanced Godunov-type finite volume method is used to solve the governing equations, facilitating satisfactory representation of the complex flow phenomena. The well-balanced property is attained by using the divergence form of matrix related to the static force for the bottom slope source term. Existing classical tests, including idealized dam-break flooding over irregular topography and experimental dam-break flooding with/without sediment transport, are numerically simulated, showing a satisfactory quantitative performance of this model.

Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

Science.gov (United States)

Siregar, R. I.

2018-03-01

The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

Towards modelling flood protection investment as a coupled human and natural system

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, P. E.; O'Donnell, G.

2014-01-01

Due to a number of recent high-profile flood events and the apparent threat from global warming, governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains. However, adopting a proactive approach as a universal strategy is not affordable. It has been argued that delaying expensive and essentially irreversible capital decisions could be a prudent strategy in situations with high future uncertainty. This paper firstly uses Monte Carlo simulation to explore the performance of proactive and reactive investment strategies using a rational cost-benefit approach in a natural system with varying levels of persistence/interannual variability in annual maximum floods. It is found that, as persistence increases, there is a change in investment strategy optimality from proactive to reactive. This could have implications for investment strategies under the increasingly variable climate that is expected with global warming. As part of the emerging holistic approaches to flood risk management, there is increasing emphasis on stakeholder participation in determining where and when flood protection investments are made, and so flood risk management is becoming more people-centred. As a consequence, multiple actors are involved in the decision-making process, and the social sciences are assuming an increasingly important role in flood risk management. There is a need for modelling approaches which can couple the natural and human system elements. It is proposed that coupled human and natural system (CHANS) modelling could play an important role in understanding the motivations, actions and influence of citizens and institutions and how these impact on the effective delivery of flood protection investment. A framework for using agent-based modelling of human activities leading to flood investments is outlined, and some of the challenges associated with implementation are discussed.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of Hydrological Model of Klang River Valley for flood forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammad, M.; Andras, B.

2012-12-01

This study is to review the impact of climate change and land used on flooding through the Klang River and to compare the changes in the existing river system in Klang River Basin with the Storm water Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) which is now already operating in the city centre of Kuala Lumpur. Klang River Basin is the most urbanized region in Malaysia. More than half of the basin has been urbanized on the land that is prone to flooding. Numerous flood mitigation projects and studies have been carried out to enhance the existing flood forecasting and mitigation project. The objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for flood forecasting in Klang Basin Malaysia. Hydrological modelling generally requires large set of input data and this is more often a challenge for a developing country. Due to this limitation, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall measurement, initiated by the US space agency NASA and Japanese space agency JAXA was used in this study. TRMM data was transformed and corrected by quantile to quantile transformation. However, transforming the data based on ground measurement doesn't make any significant improvement and the statistical comparison shows only 10% difference. The conceptual HYMOD model was used in this study and calibrated using ROPE algorithm. But, using the whole time series of the observation period in this area resulted in insufficient performance. The depth function which used in ROPE algorithm are then used to identified and calibrated using only unusual event to observed the improvement and efficiency of the model.

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Wei [Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Tian, Fuqiang [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Yang, Kun [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Sothea, Khem [Mekong Institute of Cambodia, Phnom Penh Cambodia

2017-10-25

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

Geochemistry and flooding as determining factors of plant species composition in Dutch winter-flooded riverine grasslands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beumer, V.; Wirdum, G. van; Beltman, B.; Griffioen, J.; Grootjans, A.P.; Verhoeven, J.T.A.

2008-01-01

Dutch water policy aims for more frequent, controlled flooding of river valley floodplains to avoid unwanted flooding elsewhere; in anticipation of increased flooding risks resulting from climate changes. Controlled flooding usually takes place in winter in parts of the valleys which had not been

Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zagonjolli, M.

2007-01-01

In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

Modeling Waves and Coastal Flooding along the Connecticut Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; Howard-Strobel, M. M.; Fake, T.; McCardell, G.; O'Donnell, J.; Asthita, M.

2015-12-01

We have used a hydrodynamic- wave coupled numerical model (FVCOM-SWAVE) to simulate flooding at the Connecticut coastline during severe storms. The model employed a one-way nesting scheme and an unstructured grid. The parent domain spanned most of the southern New England shelf and the fine resolution grid covered Long Island Sound (LIS) and extended across the Connecticut coast to the 10m elevation contour. The model results for sea level, current and wave statistics from the parent grid have been tested with data from several field campaigns at different locations spanning the western, central and eastern portions of LIS. Waves are fetch limited and improvements to the model-data comparison required modifications to spectral coefficients in the wave model. Finally, the nested results were validated with two field campaigns in shallow water environments (i.e. New Haven and Old Saybrook). To assess the spatial variability of storm wave characteristics the domain was forced with the hindcast winds obtained from meteorological models (NAM and WRF) for 13 severe weather events that affected LIS in the past 15 years. We have also forced the system with a simulation of Superstorm Sandy in a warmer climate to assess the impact a climate change on the character of flooding. The nested grid is currently being used to map flooding risks under severe weather events including the effects of precipitation on river flow and discharge.

A hydro-sedimentary modeling system for flash flood propagation and hazard estimation under different agricultural practices

Science.gov (United States)

Kourgialas, N. N.; Karatzas, G. P.

2014-03-01

A modeling system for the estimation of flash flood flow velocity and sediment transport is developed in this study. The system comprises three components: (a) a modeling framework based on the hydrological model HSPF, (b) the hydrodynamic module of the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi-2-D), and (c) the advection-dispersion module of MIKE 11 as a sediment transport model. An important parameter in hydraulic modeling is the Manning's coefficient, an indicator of the channel resistance which is directly dependent on riparian vegetation changes. Riparian vegetation's effect on flood propagation parameters such as water depth (inundation), discharge, flow velocity, and sediment transport load is investigated in this study. Based on the obtained results, when the weed-cutting percentage is increased, the flood wave depth decreases while flow discharge, velocity and sediment transport load increase. The proposed modeling system is used to evaluate and illustrate the flood hazard for different riparian vegetation cutting scenarios. For the estimation of flood hazard, a combination of the flood propagation characteristics of water depth, flow velocity and sediment load was used. Next, a well-balanced selection of the most appropriate agricultural cutting practices of riparian vegetation was performed. Ultimately, the model results obtained for different agricultural cutting practice scenarios can be employed to create flood protection measures for flood-prone areas. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of a small Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece.

The role of the antecedent soil moisture condition on the distributed hydrologic modelling of the Toce alpine basin floods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ravazzani, G.; Montaldo, N.; Mancini, M.; Rosso, R.

2003-04-01

Event-based hydrologic models need the antecedent soil moisture condition, as critical boundary initial condition for flood simulation. Land-surface models (LSMs) have been developed to simulate mass and energy transfers, and to update the soil moisture condition through time from the solution of water and energy balance equations. They are recently used in distributed hydrologic modeling for flood prediction systems. Recent developments have made LSMs more complex by inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing parameter number and uncertainty of their estimates. This also led to increasing of computational burden and parameterization of the distributed hydrologic models. In this study we investigate: 1) the role of soil moisture initial conditions in the modeling of Alpine basin floods; 2) the adequate complexity level of LSMs for the distributed hydrologic modeling of Alpine basin floods. The Toce basin is the case study; it is located in the North Piedmont (Italian Alps), and it has a total drainage area of 1534 km2 at Candoglia section. Three distributed hydrologic models of different level of complexity are developed and compared: two (TDLSM and SDLSM) are continuous models, one (FEST02) is an event model based on the simplified SCS-CN method for rainfall abstractions. In the TDLSM model a two-layer LSM computes both saturation and infiltration excess runoff, and simulates the evolution of the water table spatial distribution using the topographic index; in the SDLSM model a simplified one-layer distributed LSM only computes hortonian runoff, and doesn’t simulate the water table dynamic. All the three hydrologic models simulate the surface runoff propagation through the Muskingum-Cunge method. TDLSM and SDLSM models have been applied for the two-year (1996 and 1997) simulation period, during which two major floods occurred in the November 1996 and in the June 1997. The models have been calibrated and tested comparing simulated and

Green-blue water in the city: quantification of impact of source control versus end-of-pipe solutions on sewer and river floods.

Science.gov (United States)

De Vleeschauwer, K; Weustenraad, J; Nolf, C; Wolfs, V; De Meulder, B; Shannon, K; Willems, P

2014-01-01

Urbanization and climate change trends put strong pressures on urban water systems. Temporal variations in rainfall, runoff and water availability increase, and need to be compensated for by innovative adaptation strategies. One of these is stormwater retention and infiltration in open and/or green spaces in the city (blue-green water integration). This study evaluated the efficiency of three adaptation strategies for the city of Turnhout in Belgium, namely source control as a result of blue-green water integration, retention basins located downstream of the stormwater sewers, and end-of-pipe solutions based on river flood control reservoirs. The efficiency of these options is quantified by the reduction in sewer and river flood frequencies and volumes, and sewer overflow volumes. This is done by means of long-term simulations (100-year rainfall simulations) using an integrated conceptual sewer-river model calibrated to full hydrodynamic sewer and river models. Results show that combining open, green zones in the city with stormwater retention and infiltration for only 1% of the total city runoff area would lead to a 30 to 50% reduction in sewer flood volumes for return periods in the range 10-100 years. This is due to the additional surface storage and infiltration and consequent reduction in urban runoff. However, the impact of this source control option on downstream river floods is limited. Stormwater retention downstream of the sewer system gives a strong reduction in peak discharges to the receiving river. However due to the difference in response time between the sewer and river systems, this does not lead to a strong reduction in river flood frequency. The paper shows the importance of improving the interface between urban design and water management, and between sewer and river flood management.

Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y.

2017-12-01

Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 2: Integration of Heterogeneous Earth Observation Data for Comparative Analysis with High-Resolution Inundation Boundaries Reconstructed from Flood2D-GPU Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, C.; Sava, E.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey has been noted as the wettest cyclone on record for the US as well as the most destructive (so far) for the 2017 hurricane season. An entire year worth of rainfall occurred over the course of a few days. The city of Houston was greatly impacted as the storm lingered over the city for five days, causing a record-breaking 50+ inches of rain as well as severe damage from flooding. Flood model simulations were performed to reconstruct the event in order to better understand, assess, and predict flooding dynamics for the future. Additionally, number of remote sensing platforms, and on ground instruments that provide near real-time data have also been used for flood identification, monitoring, and damage assessment. Although both flood models and remote sensing techniques are able to identify inundated areas, rapid and accurate flood prediction at a high spatio-temporal resolution remains a challenge. Thus a methodological approach which fuses the two techniques can help to better validate what is being modeled and observed. Recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed emergency responders to more efficiently extract increasingly precise and relevant knowledge from the available information. In this work the use of multiple sources of contributed data, coupled with remotely sensed and open source geospatial datasets is demonstrated to generate an understanding of potential damage assessment for the floods after Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. The feasibility of integrating multiple sources at different temporal and spatial resolutions into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. Furthermore the contributed datasets are compared against a reconstructed flood extent generated from the Flood2D-GPU model.

Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

2008-01-01

Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

Assimilation of flood extent data with 2D flood inundation models for localised intense rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Neal, J. C.; Wood, M.; Bermúdez, M.; Hostache, R.; Freer, J. E.; Bates, P. D.; Coxon, G.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing of flood inundation extent has long been a potential source of data for constraining and correcting simulations of floodplain inundation. Hydrodynamic models and the computing resources to run them have developed to the extent that simulation of flood inundation in two-dimensional space is now feasible over large river basins in near real-time. However, despite substantial evidence that there is useful information content within inundation extent data, even from low resolution SAR such as that gathered by Envisat ASAR in wide swath mode, making use of the information in a data assimilation system has proved difficult. He we review recent applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter for assimilating SAR data, with a focus on the River Severn UK and compare these with complementary research that has looked at the internal error sources and boundary condition errors using detailed terrestrial data that is not available in most locations. Previous applications of the EnKF to this reach have focused on upstream boundary conditions as the source of flow error, however this description of errors was too simplistic for the simulation of summer flood events where localised intense rainfall can be substantial. Therefore, we evaluate the introduction of uncertain lateral inflows to the ensemble. A further limitation of the existing EnKF based methods is the need to convert flood extent to water surface elevations by intersecting the shoreline location with a high quality digital elevation model (e.g. LiDAR). To simplify this data processing step, we evaluate a method to directly assimilate inundation extent as a EnKF model state rather than assimilating water heights, potentially allowing the scheme to be used where high-quality terrain data are sparse.

A Sharable and Efficient Metadata Model for Heterogeneous Earth Observation Data Retrieval in Multi-Scale Flood Mapping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nengcheng Chen

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Remote sensing plays an important role in flood mapping and is helping advance flood monitoring and management. Multi-scale flood mapping is necessary for dividing floods into several stages for comprehensive management. However, existing data systems are typically heterogeneous owing to the use of different access protocols and archiving metadata models. In this paper, we proposed a sharable and efficient metadata model (APEOPM for constructing an Earth observation (EO data system to retrieve remote sensing data for flood mapping. The proposed model contains two sub-models, an access protocol model and an enhanced encoding model. The access protocol model helps unify heterogeneous access protocols and can achieve intelligent access via a semantic enhancement method. The enhanced encoding model helps unify a heterogeneous archiving metadata model. Wuhan city, one of the most important cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China, is selected as a study area for testing the retrieval of heterogeneous EO data and flood mapping. The past torrential rain period from 25 March 2015 to 10 April 2015 is chosen as the temporal range in this study. To aid in comprehensive management, mapping is conducted at different spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the efficiency of data retrieval is analyzed, and validation between the flood maps and actual precipitation was conducted. The results show that the flood map coincided with the actual precipitation.

Sensitivity and uncertainty in flood inundation modelling – concept of an analysis framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Weichel

2007-01-01

Full Text Available After the extreme flood event of the Elbe in 2002 the definition of flood risk areas by law and their simulation became more important in Germany. This paper describes a concept of an analysis framework to improve the localisation and duration of validity of flood inundation maps. The two-dimensional finite difference model TrimR2D is used and linked to a Monte-Carlo routine for parameter sampling as well as to selected performance measures. The purpose is the investigation of the impact of different spatial resolutions and the influence of changing land uses in the simulation of flood inundation areas. The technical assembling of the framework is realised and beside the model calibration, first tests with different parameter ranges were done. Preliminary results show good correlations with observed data, but the investigation of shifting land uses reflects only poor changes in the flood extension.

Dynamic model of forest area on flood zone of Padang City, West Sumatra Province-Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Dewata, Indang; Iswandi, U.

2018-05-01

The flood disaster has caused many harm to human life, and the change of watershed characteristic is one of the factors causing the flood disaster. The increase of deforestation due to the increase of water causes the occurrence of flood disaster in the rainy season. The research objective was to develop a dynamic model of forest on flood hazard zone using powersim 10.1. In model development, there are three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. The study shows that in Padang there are about 13 percent of high flood hazard zones. Deforestation of 4.5 percent/year is one cause that may increased the flooding intensity in Padang. There will be 14 percent of total forest area when management policy of forest absence in 2050.

Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

2015-06-01

Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

Flood Modeling Using a Synthesis of Multi-Platform LiDAR Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan M. Csontos

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This study examined the utility of a high resolution ground-based (mobile and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR dataset (0.2 m point-spacing supplemented with a coarser resolution airborne LiDAR dataset (5 m point-spacing for use in a flood inundation analysis. The techniques for combining multi-platform LiDAR data into a composite dataset in the form of a triangulated irregular network (TIN are described, and quantitative comparisons were made to a TIN generated solely from the airborne LiDAR dataset. For example, a maximum land surface elevation difference of 1.677 m and a mean difference of 0.178 m were calculated between the datasets based on sample points. Utilizing the composite and airborne LiDAR-derived TINs, a flood inundation comparison was completed using a one-dimensional steady flow hydraulic modeling analysis. Quantitative comparisons of the water surface profiles and depth grids indicated an underestimation of flooding extent, volume, and maximum flood height using the airborne LiDAR data alone. A 35% increase in maximum flood height was observed using the composite LiDAR dataset. In addition, the extents of the water surface profiles generated from the two datasets were found to be statistically significantly different. The urban and mountainous characteristics of the study area as well as the density (file size of the high resolution ground based LiDAR data presented both opportunities and challenges for flood modeling analyses.

Calibration of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model and flood simulation using data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Thual, O.; Coustau, M.; Marchandise, A.

2010-12-01

Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for long-term assessment of flash floods or real-time forecasting. This work focuses on the calibration of a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model using data assimilation. The model combines a SCS-derived runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The SCS-derived runoff model is parametrized by the initial water deficit, the discharge coefficient for the soil reservoir and a lagged discharge coefficient. The Lag and Route routing model is parametrized by the velocity of travel and the lag parameter. These parameters are assumed to be constant for a given catchment except for the initial water deficit and the velocity travel that are event-dependent (landuse, soil type and moisture initial conditions). In the present work, a BLUE filtering technique was used to calibrate the initial water deficit and the velocity travel for each flood event assimilating the first available discharge measurements at the catchment outlet. The advantages of the BLUE algorithm are its low computational cost and its convenient implementation, especially in the context of the calibration of a reduced number of parameters. The assimilation algorithm was applied on two Mediterranean catchment areas of different size and dynamics: Gardon d'Anduze and Lez. The Lez catchment, of 114 km2 drainage area, is located upstream Montpellier. It is a karstic catchment mainly affected by floods in autumn during intense rainstorms with short Lag-times and high discharge peaks (up to 480 m3.s-1 in September 2005). The Gardon d'Anduze catchment, mostly granite and schistose, of 545 km2 drainage area, lies over the departements of Lozère and Gard. It is often affected by flash and devasting floods (up to 3000 m3.s-1 in September 2002). The discharge observations at the beginning of the flood event are assimilated so that the BLUE algorithm provides optimal values for the initial water deficit and the

Variability in eddy sandbar dynamics during two decades of controlled flooding of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Schmidt, John C.

2018-01-01

Sandbars are iconic features of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, U.S.A. Following completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, sediment deficit conditions caused erosion of eddy sandbars throughout much of the 360 km study reach downstream from the dam. Controlled floods in 1996, 2004, and 2008 demonstrated that sand on the channel bed could be redistributed to higher elevations, and that floods timed to follow tributary sediment inputs would increase suspended sand concentrations during floods. Since 2012, a new management protocol has resulted in four controlled floods timed to follow large inputs of sand from a major tributary. Monitoring of 44 downstream eddy sandbars, initiated in 1990, shows that each controlled flood deposited significant amounts of sand and increased the size of subaerial sandbars. However, the magnitude of sandbar deposition varied from eddy to eddy, even over relatively short distances where main-stem suspended sediment concentrations were similar. Here, we characterize spatial and temporal trends in sandbar volume and site-scale (i.e., individual eddy) sediment storage as a function of flow, channel, and vegetation characteristics that reflect the reach-scale (i.e., kilometer-scale) hydraulic environment. We grouped the long-term monitoring sites based on geomorphic setting and used a principal component analysis (PCA) to correlate differences in sandbar behavior to changes in reach-scale geomorphic metrics. Sites in narrow reaches are less-vegetated, stage changes markedly with discharge, sandbars tend to remain dynamic, and sand storage change dominantly occurs in the eddy compared to the main channel. In wider reaches, where stage-change during floods may be half that of narrow sites, sandbars are more likely to be stabilized by vegetation, and floods tend to aggrade the vegetated sandbar surfaces. In these locations, deposition during controlled floods is more akin to floodplain sedimentation, and the elevation of sandbar

Model of Ciliwung River Flood Diversion Tunnel Using HEC-RAS Software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nugroho Joko

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As a coastal city which lies in lowland area, Jakarta is prone to flooding. One major river which flow through Jakarta is Ciliwung River. There are alternatives to reduce flood risk, such as: river capacity improvement, existing natural reservoir and polder system improvement, upstream reservoir construction, city drainage improvement, flood channel construction and flood diversion. This paper presents capacity analysis of a proposed flood diversion of Ciliwung River to Cipinang River. Cipinang River has its downstream end at Eastern Flood Canal (Kanal Banjir Timur, KBT. This diversion is based on the available capacity of KBT. A 1-D numerical hydraulic model using HEC-RAS based on a proposed design is used to assess the performance of the diversion system in any combination of upstream and downstream boundary condition. Simulations were done for steady condition. The results show that capacity of the system can be achieved for certain condition at upstream and downstream boundary. The effects at the downstream reach of Ciliwung and Cipinang River due to the diversion are also obtained.

Flood Hazard Mapping by Using Geographic Information System and Hydraulic Model: Mert River, Samsun, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahdettin Demir

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, flood hazard maps were prepared for the Mert River Basin, Samsun, Turkey, by using GIS and Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS. In this river basin, human life losses and a significant amount of property damages were experienced in 2012 flood. The preparation of flood risk maps employed in the study includes the following steps: (1 digitization of topographical data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS, (2 simulation of flood lows of different return periods using a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS, and (3 preparation of flood risk maps by integrating the results of (1 and (2.

Integrated Urban Flood Analysis considering Optimal Operation of Flood Control Facilities in Urban Drainage Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, M. S.; Choi, J. H.; Yuk, G. M.

2017-12-01

eavy rainfall has become a recent major cause of urban area flooding due to the climate change and urbanization. To prevent property damage along with casualties, a system which can alert and forecast urban flooding must be developed. Optimal performance of reducing flood damage can be expected of urban drainage facilities when operated in smaller rainfall events over extreme ones. Thus, the purpose of this study is to execute: A) flood forecasting system using runoff analysis based on short term rainfall; and B) flood warning system which operates based on the data from pump stations and rainwater storage in urban basins. In result of the analysis, it is shown that urban drainage facilities using short term rainfall forecasting data by radar will be more effective to reduce urban flood damage than using only the inflow data of the facility. Keywords: Heavy Rainfall, Urban Flood, Short-term Rainfall Forecasting, Optimal operating of urban drainage facilities. AcknowledgmentsThis research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B066744-05) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Birth of a megaproject: Political economy of flood control in bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Boyce, James K.

1990-07-01

A major flood control initiative has been launched in Bangladesh under the coordination of the World Bank. The bank's five-year Action Plan is intended to initiate a long-term investment program, the specifics of which remain to be determined. Long-term proposals under consideration include the construction of massive embankments along the great rivers of the Bangladesh delta. The wisdom of such a “structural solution” to Bangladesh's flood problems can be questioned on economic, environmental, and technical grounds. Regrettably, the decision-making process has not encouraged wide debate on these questions.

On the performance of satellite precipitation products in riverine flood modeling: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Maggioni, Viviana; Massari, Christian

2018-03-01

This work is meant to summarize lessons learned on using satellite precipitation products for riverine flood modeling and to propose future directions in this field of research. Firstly, the most common satellite precipitation products (SPPs) during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) eras are reviewed. Secondly, we discuss the main errors and uncertainty sources in these datasets that have the potential to affect streamflow and runoff model simulations. Thirdly, past studies that focused on using SPPs for predicting streamflow and runoff are analyzed. As the impact of floods depends not only on the characteristics of the flood itself, but also on the characteristics of the region (population density, land use, geophysical and climatic factors), a regional analysis is required to assess the performance of hydrologic models in monitoring and predicting floods. The performance of SPP-forced hydrological models was shown to largely depend on several factors, including precipitation type, seasonality, hydrological model formulation, topography. Across several basins around the world, the bias in SPPs was recognized as a major issue and bias correction methods of different complexity were shown to significantly reduce streamflow errors. Model re-calibration was also raised as a viable option to improve SPP-forced streamflow simulations, but caution is necessary when recalibrating models with SPP, which may result in unrealistic parameter values. From a general standpoint, there is significant potential for using satellite observations in flood forecasting, but the performance of SPP in hydrological modeling is still inadequate for operational purposes.

What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

2015-04-01

In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

Use of a dam break model to assess flooding at Haddam Neck Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scherrer, J.S.; Chery, D.L. Jr.

1984-01-01

Because of their proximity to necessary supplies of cooling water, nuclear power plants are susceptible to riverine flooding. Greater flood hazards exist where plants are located downstream of larger dams. The consequences of the Quabbin Reservoir dam failure on the Haddam Neck Nuclear Power Plant situated on the Connecticut River were investigated using a dam break flood routing model. Reasons for selecting a particular model are presented and the input assumption for the modeling process are developed. Relevant information concerning the level of manpower involvement is presented. The findings of this analysis demonstrate that the plant is adequately protected from the consequences of the postulated flood event

A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Roux

2011-09-01

Full Text Available A spatially distributed hydrological model, dedicated to flood simulation, is developed on the basis of physical process representation (infiltration, overland flow, channel routing. Estimation of model parameters requires data concerning topography, soil properties, vegetation and land use. Four parameters are calibrated for the entire catchment using one flood event. Model sensitivity to individual parameters is assessed using Monte-Carlo simulations. Results of this sensitivity analysis with a criterion based on the Nash efficiency coefficient and the error of peak time and runoff are used to calibrate the model. This procedure is tested on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment, located in the Mediterranean zone of southern France. A first validation is conducted using three flood events with different hydrometeorological characteristics. This sensitivity analysis along with validation tests illustrates the predictive capability of the model and points out the possible improvements on the model's structure and parameterization for flash flood forecasting, especially in ungauged basins. Concerning the model structure, results show that water transfer through the subsurface zone also contributes to the hydrograph response to an extreme event, especially during the recession period. Maps of soil saturation emphasize the impact of rainfall and soil properties variability on these dynamics. Adding a subsurface flow component in the simulation also greatly impacts the spatial distribution of soil saturation and shows the importance of the drainage network. Measures of such distributed variables would help discriminating between different possible model structures.

2D Modeling of Flood Propagation due to the Failure of Way Ela Natural Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yakti Bagus Pramono

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A dam break induced-flood propagation modeling is needed to reduce the losses of any potential dam failure. On the 25 July 2013, there was a dam break generated flood due to the failure of Way Ela Natural Dam that severely damaged houses and various public facilities. This study simulated the flooding induced by the failure of Way Ela Natural Dam. A two-dimensional (2D numerical model, HEC-RAS v.5, is used to simulate the overland flow. The dam failure itself is simulated using HECHMSv.4. The results of this study, the flood inundation, flood depth, and flood arrival time are verified by using available secondary data. These informations are very important to propose mitigation plans with respect to possible dam break in the future.

Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Arrighi

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The adoption of 2007/60/EC Directive requires European countries to implement flood hazard and flood risk maps by the end of 2013. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. The route to flood risk assessment is consequently much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. A parsimonious quasi-2-D hydraulic model is here adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. It is here evaluated as being accurate in flood depth estimation in urban areas with a high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM. The accuracy, estimated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence, is characterized in the downtown's most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 € m−2 yr−1, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents' income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the building characteristics. As a final example application, the estimated risk values have been used to compare different retrofitting measures. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This is based on the georeferenced census system as the optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of the risk spatial variability, and they can be easily aggregated to whatever upper scale is needed given that they are geographically defined as contiguous polygons. Damage is calculated through stage–damage curves, starting from census data on building type and

Investigating compound flooding in an estuary using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study from the Shoalhaven River, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Kumbier, Kristian; Carvalho, Rafael C.; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Woodroffe, Colin D.

2018-02-01

Many previous modelling studies have considered storm-tide and riverine flooding independently, even though joint-probability analysis highlighted significant dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme storm surges in estuarine environments. This study investigates compound flooding by quantifying horizontal and vertical differences in coastal flood risk estimates resulting from a separation of storm-tide and riverine flooding processes. We used an open-source version of the Delft3D model to simulate flood extent and inundation depth due to a storm event that occurred in June 2016 in the Shoalhaven Estuary, south-eastern Australia. Time series of observed water levels and discharge measurements are used to force model boundaries, whereas observational data such as satellite imagery, aerial photographs, tidal gauges and water level logger measurements are used to validate modelling results. The comparison of simulation results including and excluding riverine discharge demonstrated large differences in modelled flood extents and inundation depths. A flood risk assessment accounting only for storm-tide flooding would have underestimated the flood extent of the June 2016 storm event by 30 % (20.5 km2). Furthermore, inundation depths would have been underestimated on average by 0.34 m and by up to 1.5 m locally. We recommend considering storm-tide and riverine flooding processes jointly in estuaries with large catchment areas, which are known to have a quick response time to extreme rainfall. In addition, comparison of different boundary set-ups at the intermittent entrance in Shoalhaven Heads indicated that a permanent opening, in order to reduce exposure to riverine flooding, would increase tidal range and exposure to both storm-tide flooding and wave action.

An expanded model: flood-inundation maps for the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Mississippi, 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Storm, John B.

2014-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.8-mile reach of the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Mississippi (Miss.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Hattiesburg, City of Petal, Forrest County, Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, Mississippi Department of Homeland Security, and the Emergency Management District. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Miss. (station no. 02473000). Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation by use of USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Miss. streamgage (02473000) and documented high-water marks from recent and historical floods. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 13 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1.0-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS

Variability in eddy sandbar dynamics during two decades of controlled flooding of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Schmidt, John C.

2018-01-01

Sandbars are iconic features of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, U.S.A. Following completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, sediment deficit conditions caused erosion of eddy sandbars throughout much of the 360 km study reach downstream from the dam. Controlled floods in 1996, 2004, and 2008 demonstrated that sand on the channel bed could be redistributed to higher elevations, and that floods timed to follow tributary sediment inputs would increase suspended sand concentrations during floods. Since 2012, a new management protocol has resulted in four controlled floods timed to follow large inputs of sand from a major tributary. Monitoring of 44 downstream eddy sandbars, initiated in 1990, shows that each controlled flood deposited significant amounts of sand and increased the size of subaerial sandbars. However, the magnitude of sandbar deposition varied from eddy to eddy, even over relatively short distances where main-stem suspended sediment concentrations were similar. Here, we characterize spatial and temporal trends in sandbar volume and site-scale (i.e., individual eddy) sediment storage as a function of flow, channel, and vegetation characteristics that reflect the reach-scale (i.e., kilometer-scale) hydraulic environment. We grouped the long-term monitoring sites based on geomorphic setting and used a principal component analysis (PCA) to correlate differences in sandbar behavior to changes in reach-scale geomorphic metrics. Sites in narrow reaches are less-vegetated, stage changes markedly with discharge, sandbars tend to remain dynamic, and sand storage change dominantly occurs in the eddy compared to the main channel. In wider reaches, where stage-change during floods may be half that of narrow sites, sandbars are more likely to be stabilized by vegetation, and floods tend to aggrade the vegetated sandbar surfaces. In these locations, deposition during controlled floods is more akin to floodplain sedimentation, and the elevation of sandbar

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

Integrating hydrodynamic models and COSMO-SkyMed derived products for flood damage assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Giuffra, Flavio; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Rudari, Roberto; Fiorini, Mattia

2015-04-01

Floods are the most frequent weather disasters in the world and probably the most costly in terms of social and economic losses. They may have a strong impact on infrastructures and health because the range of possible damages includes casualties, loss of housing and destruction of crops. Presently, the most common approach for remotely sensing floods is the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. Key features of SAR data for inundation mapping are the synoptic view, the capability to operate even in cloudy conditions and during both day and night time and the sensitivity of the microwave radiation to water. The launch of a new generation of instruments, such as TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) allows producing near real time flood maps having a spatial resolution in the order of 1-5 m. Moreover, the present (CSK) and upcoming (Sentinel-1) constellations permit the acquisition of radar data characterized by a short revisit time (in the order of some hours for CSK), so that the production of frequent inundation maps can be envisaged. Nonetheless, gaps might be present in the SAR-derived flood maps because of the limited area imaged by SAR; moreover, the detection of floodwater may be complicated by the presence of very dense vegetation or urban settlements. Hence the need to complement SAR-derived flood maps with the outputs of physical models. Physical models allow delivering to end users very useful information for a complete flood damage assessment, such as data on water depths and flow directions, which cannot be directly derived from satellite remote sensing images. In addition, the flood extent predictions of hydraulic models can be compared to SAR-derived inundation maps to calibrate the models, or to fill the aforementioned gaps that can be present in the SAR-derived maps. Finally, physical models enable the construction of risk scenarios useful for emergency managers to take their decisions and for programming additional SAR acquisitions in order to

Flooding Simulation of Extreme Event on Barnegat Bay by High-Resolution Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

2017-12-01

Barnegat Bay located on the east coast of New Jersey, United States and is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the narrow Barnegat Peninsula which acts as a barrier island. The bay is fed by several rivers which empty through small estuaries along the inner shore. In terms of vulnerability from flooding, the Barnegat Peninsula is under the influence of both coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. Barnegat Bay was hit by Hurricane Sandy causing flood damages with extensive cross-island flow at many streets perpendicular to the shoreline. The objective of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of flooding using a two dimensional inland hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was forced by three observed coastal boundary conditions, and one hydrologic boundary condition from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The model reliability was evaluated with both FEMA spatial flooding extend and USGS High water marks. Simulated flooding extent showed good agreement with the reanalysis spatial inundation extents. Results offered important perspectives on the flow of the water into the bay, the velocity and the depth of the inundated areas. Using such information can enable emergency managers and decision makers identify evacuation and deploy flood defenses.

Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem

Science.gov (United States)

Gober, Patricia; Wheater, Howard S.

2015-06-01

Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social memory as a vehicle to link human perceptions to flood damage. Their mathematical model has heuristic value in comparing potential flood damages in green versus technological societies. It can also support communities in exploring the potential consequences of policy decisions and evaluating critical policy tradeoffs, for example, between flood protection and economic development. The concept of social memory does not, however, adequately capture the social processes whereby public perceptions are translated into policy action, including the pivotal role played by the media in intensifying or attenuating perceived flood risk, the success of policy entrepreneurs in keeping flood hazard on the public agenda during short windows of opportunity for policy action, and different societal approaches to managing flood risk that derive from cultural values and economic interests. We endorse the value of seeking to capture these dynamics in a simplified conceptual framework, but favor a broader conceptualization of socio-hydrology that includes a knowledge exchange component, including the way modeling insights and scientific results are communicated to floodplain managers. The social processes used to disseminate the products of socio-hydrological research are as important as the research results themselves in determining whether modeling is used for real-world decision making.

Integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach for impact evaluation of flood on crop yields

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Huili; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Liang, Qiuhua; Xie, Shuguang

2017-10-01

The projected frequent occurrences of extreme flood events will cause significant losses to crops and will threaten food security. To reduce the potential risk and provide support for agricultural flood management, prevention, and mitigation, it is important to account for flood damage to crop production and to understand the relationship between flood characteristics and crop losses. A quantitative and effective evaluation tool is therefore essential to explore what and how flood characteristics will affect the associated crop loss, based on accurately understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood evolution and crop growth. Current evaluation methods are generally integrally or qualitatively based on statistic data or ex-post survey with less diagnosis into the process and dynamics of historical flood events. Therefore, a quantitative and spatial evaluation framework is presented in this study that integrates remote sensing imagery and hydraulic model simulation to facilitate the identification of historical flood characteristics that influence crop losses. Remote sensing imagery can capture the spatial variation of crop yields and yield losses from floods on a grid scale over large areas; however, it is incapable of providing spatial information regarding flood progress. Two-dimensional hydraulic model can simulate the dynamics of surface runoff and accomplish spatial and temporal quantification of flood characteristics on a grid scale over watersheds, i.e., flow velocity and flood duration. The methodological framework developed herein includes the following: (a) Vegetation indices for the critical period of crop growth from mid-high temporal and spatial remote sensing imagery in association with agricultural statistics data were used to develop empirical models to monitor the crop yield and evaluate yield losses from flood; (b) The two-dimensional hydraulic model coupled with the SCS-CN hydrologic model was employed to simulate the flood evolution process

Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

Science.gov (United States)

Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

2017-04-01

Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15

Boosting flood warning schemes with fast emulator of detailed hydrodynamic models

Science.gov (United States)

Bellos, V.; Carbajal, J. P.; Leitao, J. P.

2017-12-01

Floods are among the most destructive catastrophic events and their frequency has incremented over the last decades. To reduce flood impact and risks, flood warning schemes are installed in flood prone areas. Frequently, these schemes are based on numerical models which quickly provide predictions of water levels and other relevant observables. However, the high complexity of flood wave propagation in the real world and the need of accurate predictions in urban environments or in floodplains hinders the use of detailed simulators. This sets the difficulty, we need fast predictions that meet the accuracy requirements. Most physics based detailed simulators although accurate, will not fulfill the speed demand. Even if High Performance Computing techniques are used (the magnitude of required simulation time is minutes/hours). As a consequence, most flood warning schemes are based in coarse ad-hoc approximations that cannot take advantage a detailed hydrodynamic simulation. In this work, we present a methodology for developing a flood warning scheme using an Gaussian Processes based emulator of a detailed hydrodynamic model. The methodology consists of two main stages: 1) offline stage to build the emulator; 2) online stage using the emulator to predict and generate warnings. The offline stage consists of the following steps: a) definition of the critical sites of the area under study, and the specification of the observables to predict at those sites, e.g. water depth, flow velocity, etc.; b) generation of a detailed simulation dataset to train the emulator; c) calibration of the required parameters (if measurements are available). The online stage is carried on using the emulator to predict the relevant observables quickly, and the detailed simulator is used in parallel to verify key predictions of the emulator. The speed gain given by the emulator allows also to quantify uncertainty in predictions using ensemble methods. The above methodology is applied in real

Estimating design flood and HEC-RAS modelling approach for flood analysis in Bojonegoro city

Science.gov (United States)

Prastica, R. M. S.; Maitri, C.; Hermawan, A.; Nugroho, P. C.; Sutjiningsih, D.; Anggraheni, E.

2018-03-01

Bojonegoro faces flood every year with less advanced prevention development. Bojonegoro city development could not peak because the flood results material losses. It affects every sectors in Bojonegoro: education, politics, economy, social, and infrastructure development. This research aims to analyse and to ensure that river capacity has high probability to be the main factor of flood in Bojonegoro. Flood discharge analysis uses Nakayasu synthetic unit hydrograph for period of 5 years, 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, and 100 years. They would be compared to the water maximum capacity that could be loaded by downstream part of Bengawan Solo River in Bojonegoro. According to analysis result, Bengawan Solo River in Bojonegoro could not able to load flood discharges. Another method used is HEC-RAS analysis. The conclusion that shown by HEC-RAS analysis has the same view. It could be observed that flood water loading is more than full bank capacity elevation in the river. To conclude, the main factor that should be noticed by government to solve flood problem is river capacity.

Appropriate hydrological modelling of climate change on river flooding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Booij, Martijn J.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Jakeman, A.J.

2002-01-01

How good should a river basin model be to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding for a specific geographical area? The determination of such an appropriate model should reveal which physical processes should be incorporated and which data and mathematical process descriptions should

Application of optimization technique for flood damage modeling in river system

Science.gov (United States)

Barman, Sangita Deb; Choudhury, Parthasarathi

2018-04-01

A river system is defined as a network of channels that drains different parts of a basin uniting downstream to form a common outflow. An application of various models found in literatures, to a river system having multiple upstream flows is not always straight forward, involves a lengthy procedure; and with non-availability of data sets model calibration and applications may become difficult. In the case of a river system the flow modeling can be simplified to a large extent if the channel network is replaced by an equivalent single channel. In the present work optimization model formulations based on equivalent flow and applications of the mixed integer programming based pre-emptive goal programming model in evaluating flood control alternatives for a real life river system in India are proposed to be covered in the study.

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

2017-04-01

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.

Assessing and optimising flood control options along the Arachthos river floodplain (Epirus, Greece)

Science.gov (United States)

Drosou, Athina; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Lykou, Archontia; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Mamassis, Nikos

2015-04-01

We present a multi-criteria simulation-optimization framework for the optimal design and setting of flood protection structures along river banks. The methodology is tested in the lower course of the Arachthos River (Epirus, Greece), downstream of the hydroelectric dam of Pournari. The entire study area is very sensitive, particularly because the river crosses the urban area of Arta, which is located just after the dam. Moreover, extended agricultural areas that are crucial for the local economy are prone to floods. In the proposed methodology we investigate two conflicting criteria, i.e. the minimization of flood hazards (due to damages to urban infrastructures, crops, etc.) and the minimization of construction costs of the essential hydraulic structures (e.g. dikes). For the hydraulic simulation we examine two flood routing models, named 1D HEC-RAS and quasi-2D LISFLOOD, whereas the optimization is carried out through the Surrogate-Enhanced Evolutionary Annealing-Simplex (SE-EAS) algorithm that couples the strengths of surrogate modeling with the effectiveness and efficiency of the EAS method.

76 FR 39091 - San Luis Obispo Flood Control and Water Conservation District; Notice of Effectiveness of Surrender

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-05

... Flood Control and Water Conservation District; Notice of Effectiveness of Surrender On October 27, 1981... \\1\\ to the San Luis Obispo Flood Control and Water Conservation District (District) for the Lopez... and Water Conservation District, 17 FERC ] 62,113 (1981). On October 24, 2005, the District filed an...

Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

Science.gov (United States)

Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

2015-04-01

Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

Mental health impacts of flooding: a controlled interrupted time series analysis of prescribing data in England.

Science.gov (United States)

Milojevic, Ai; Armstrong, Ben; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-01

There is emerging evidence that people affected by flooding suffer adverse impacts on their mental well-being, mostly based on self-reports. We examined prescription records for drugs used in the management of common mental disorder among primary care practices located in the vicinity of recent large flood events in England, 2011-2014. A controlled interrupted time series analysis was conducted of the number of prescribing items for antidepressant drugs in the year before and after the flood onset. Pre-post changes were compared by distance of the practice from the inundated boundaries among 930 practices located within 10 km of a flood. After control for deprivation and population density, there was an increase of 0.59% (95% CI 0.24 to 0.94) prescriptions in the postflood year among practices located within 1 km of a flood over and above the change observed in the furthest distance band. The increase was greater in more deprived areas. This study suggests an increase in prescribed antidepressant drugs in the year after flooding in primary care practices close to recent major floods in England. The degree to which the increase is actually concentrated in those flooded can only be determined by more detailed linkage studies. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Combining empirical approaches and error modelling to enhance predictive uncertainty estimation in extrapolation for operational flood forecasting. Tests on flood events on the Loire basin, France.

Science.gov (United States)

Berthet, Lionel; Marty, Renaud; Bourgin, François; Viatgé, Julie; Piotte, Olivier; Perrin, Charles

2017-04-01

An increasing number of operational flood forecasting centres assess the predictive uncertainty associated with their forecasts and communicate it to the end users. This information can match the end-users needs (i.e. prove to be useful for an efficient crisis management) only if it is reliable: reliability is therefore a key quality for operational flood forecasts. In 2015, the French flood forecasting national and regional services (Vigicrues network; www.vigicrues.gouv.fr) implemented a framework to compute quantitative discharge and water level forecasts and to assess the predictive uncertainty. Among the possible technical options to achieve this goal, a statistical analysis of past forecasting errors of deterministic models has been selected (QUOIQUE method, Bourgin, 2014). It is a data-based and non-parametric approach based on as few assumptions as possible about the forecasting error mathematical structure. In particular, a very simple assumption is made regarding the predictive uncertainty distributions for large events outside the range of the calibration data: the multiplicative error distribution is assumed to be constant, whatever the magnitude of the flood. Indeed, the predictive distributions may not be reliable in extrapolation. However, estimating the predictive uncertainty for these rare events is crucial when major floods are of concern. In order to improve the forecasts reliability for major floods, an attempt at combining the operational strength of the empirical statistical analysis and a simple error modelling is done. Since the heteroscedasticity of forecast errors can considerably weaken the predictive reliability for large floods, this error modelling is based on the log-sinh transformation which proved to reduce significantly the heteroscedasticity of the transformed error in a simulation context, even for flood peaks (Wang et al., 2012). Exploratory tests on some operational forecasts issued during the recent floods experienced in

Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

Science.gov (United States)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

Science.gov (United States)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ji; Chen, Yangbo; Wang, Huanyu; Qin, Jianming; Li, Jie; Chiao, Sen

2017-03-01

Long lead time flood forecasting is very important for large watershed flood mitigation as it provides more time for flood warning and emergency responses. The latest numerical weather forecast model could provide 1-15-day quantitative precipitation forecasting products in grid format, and by coupling this product with a distributed hydrological model could produce long lead time watershed flood forecasting products. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling the Liuxihe model with the Weather Research and Forecasting quantitative precipitation forecast (WRF QPF) for large watershed flood forecasting in southern China. The QPF of WRF products has three lead times, including 24, 48 and 72 h, with the grid resolution being 20 km  × 20 km. The Liuxihe model is set up with freely downloaded terrain property; the model parameters were previously optimized with rain gauge observed precipitation, and re-optimized with the WRF QPF. Results show that the WRF QPF has bias with the rain gauge precipitation, and a post-processing method is proposed to post-process the WRF QPF products, which improves the flood forecasting capability. With model parameter re-optimization, the model's performance improves also. This suggests that the model parameters be optimized with QPF, not the rain gauge precipitation. With the increasing of lead time, the accuracy of the WRF QPF decreases, as does the flood forecasting capability. Flood forecasting products produced by coupling the Liuxihe model with the WRF QPF provide a good reference for large watershed flood warning due to its long lead time and rational results.

Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

2014-05-01

While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

Flood damage in Italy: towards an assessment model of reconstruction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Genovese, Elisabetta; Modica, Marco; Zoboli, Roberto

2016-04-01

Recent decades in Italy have seen a very rapid expansion of urbanisation in terms of physical assets, while demographics have remained stable. Both the characteristics of Italian soil and anthropic development, along with repeated global climatic stress, have made the country vulnerable to floods, the intensity of which is increasingly alarming. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific mitigation strategies. The present study focuses on the province of Sondrio in Northern Italy (area of about 3,200 km²), which is home to more than 180,000 inhabitants and the population is growing slightly. It is clearly a hot spot for flood exposure, as it is primarily a mountainous area where floods and flash floods hit frequently. The model we use for assessing potential flood damage determines risk scenarios by overlaying flood hazard maps and economic asset data. In Italy, hazard maps are provided by Regional Authorities through the Hydrogeological System Management Plan (PAI) based on EU Flood Directive guidelines. The PAI in the study area includes both the large plain and the secondary river system and considers three hazard scenarios of Low, Medium and High Frequency associated with return periods of 20, 200 and 500 years and related water levels. By an overlay of PAI maps and residential areas, visualized on a GIS, we determine which existing built-up areas are at risk for flood according to each scenario. Then we investigate the value of physical assets potentially affected by floods in terms of market values, using the database of the Italian Property Market Observatory (OMI), and in terms of reconstruction costs, by considering synthetic cost indexes of predominant building types (from census information) and PAI water height. This study illustrates a methodology to assess flood damage in urban settlements and aims to determine general guidelines that can be extended throughout Italy

Hyper-resolution urban flood modeling using high-resolution radar precipitation and LiDAR data

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, S. J.; Lee, S.; Lee, J.; Seo, D. J.

2016-12-01

Floods occur most frequently among all natural hazards, often causing widespread economic damage and loss of human lives. In particular, urban flooding is becoming increasingly costly and difficult to manage with a greater concentration of population and assets in urban centers. Despite of known benefits for accurate representation of small scale features and flow interaction among different flow domains, which have significant impact on flood propagation, high-resolution modeling has not been fully utilized due to expensive computation and various uncertainties from model structure, input and parameters. In this study, we assess the potential of hyper-resolution hydrologic-hydraulic modeling using high-resolution radar precipitation and LiDAR data for improved urban flood prediction and hazard mapping. We describe a hyper-resolution 1D-2D coupled urban flood model for pipe and surface flows and evaluate the accuracy of the street-level inundation information produced. For detailed geometric representation of urban areas and for computational efficiency, we use 1 m-resolution topographical data, processed from LiDAR measurements, in conjunction with adaptive mesh refinement. For street-level simulation in large urban areas at grid sizes of 1 to 10 m, a hybrid parallel computing scheme using MPI and openMP is also implemented in a high-performance computing system. The modeling approach developed is applied for the Johnson Creek Catchment ( 40 km2), which makes up the Arlington Urban Hydroinformatics Testbed. In addition, discussion will be given on availability of hyper-resolution simulation archive for improved real-time flood mapping.

Numerical Well Testing Interpretation Model and Applications in Crossflow Double-Layer Reservoirs by Polymer Flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haiyang Yu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents numerical well testing interpretation model and analysis techniques to evaluate formation by using pressure transient data acquired with logging tools in crossflow double-layer reservoirs by polymer flooding. A well testing model is established based on rheology experiments and by considering shear, diffusion, convection, inaccessible pore volume (IPV, permeability reduction, wellbore storage effect, and skin factors. The type curves were then developed based on this model, and parameter sensitivity is analyzed. Our research shows that the type curves have five segments with different flow status: (I wellbore storage section, (II intermediate flow section (transient section, (III mid-radial flow section, (IV crossflow section (from low permeability layer to high permeability layer, and (V systematic radial flow section. The polymer flooding field tests prove that our model can accurately determine formation parameters in crossflow double-layer reservoirs by polymer flooding. Moreover, formation damage caused by polymer flooding can also be evaluated by comparison of the interpreted permeability with initial layered permeability before polymer flooding. Comparison of the analysis of numerical solution based on flow mechanism with observed polymer flooding field test data highlights the potential for the application of this interpretation method in formation evaluation and enhanced oil recovery (EOR.

Thermo-hydrodynamical modelling of a flooded deep mine reservoir - Case of the Lorraine Coal Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reichart, Guillaume

2015-01-01

Since 2006, cessation of dewatering in Lorraine Coal Basin (France) led to the flooding of abandoned mines, resulting in a new hydrodynamic balance in the area. Recent researches concerning geothermal exploitation of flooded reservoirs raised new questions, which we propose to answer. Our work aimed to understand the thermos-hydrodynamic behaviour of mine water in a flooding or flooded system. Firstly, we synthesized the geographical, geological and hydrogeological contexts of the Lorraine Coal Basin, and we chose a specific area for our studies. Secondly, temperature and electric conductivity log profiles were measured in old pits of the Lorraine Coal Basin, giving a better understanding of the water behaviour at a deep mine shaft scale. We were able to build a thermos-hydrodynamic model and simulate water behaviour at this scale. Flow regime stability is also studied. Thirdly, a hydrodynamic spatialized meshed model was realized to study the hydrodynamic behaviour of a mine reservoir as a whole. Observed water-table rise was correctly reproduced: moreover, the model can be used in a predictive way after the flooding. Several tools were tested, improved or developed to ease the study of flooded reservoirs, as three-dimensional up-scaling of hydraulic conductivities and a coupled spatialized meshed model with a pipe network. (author) [fr

Autonomous watersheds: Reducing flooding and stream erosion through real-time control

Science.gov (United States)

Kerkez, B.; Wong, B. P.

2017-12-01

We introduce an analytical toolchain, based on dynamical system theory and feedback control, to determine how many control points (valves, gates, pumps, etc.) are needed to transform urban watersheds from static to adaptive. Advances and distributed sensing and control stand to fundamentally change how we manage urban watersheds. In lieu of new and costly infrastructure, the real-time control of stormwater systems will reduce flooding, mitigate stream erosion, and improve the treatment of polluted runoff. We discuss the how open source technologies, in the form of wireless sensor nodes and remotely-controllable valves (open-storm.org), have been deployed to build "smart" stormwater systems in the Midwestern US. Unlike "static" infrastructure, which cannot readily adapt to changing inputs and land uses, these distributed control assets allow entire watersheds to be reconfigured on a storm-by-storm basis. Our results show how the control of even just a few valves within urban catchments (1-10km^2) allows for the real-time "shaping" of hydrographs, which reduces downstream erosion and flooding. We also introduce an equivalence framework that can be used by decision-makers to objectively compare investments into "smart" system to more traditional solutions, such as gray and green stormwater infrastructure.

A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

Science.gov (United States)

Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2014-05-01

Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

Towards the optimal fusion of high-resolution Digital Elevation Models for detailed urban flood assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Leitão, J. P.; de Sousa, L. M.

2018-06-01

Newly available, more detailed and accurate elevation data sets, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) generated on the basis of imagery from terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) systems or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), can be used to improve flood-model input data and consequently increase the accuracy of the flood modelling results. This paper presents the first application of the MBlend merging method and assesses the impact of combining different DEMs on flood modelling results. It was demonstrated that different raster merging methods can have different and substantial impacts on these results. In addition to the influence associated with the method used to merge the original DEMs, the magnitude of the impact also depends on (i) the systematic horizontal and vertical differences of the DEMs, and (ii) the orientation between the DEM boundary and the terrain slope. The greater water depth and flow velocity differences between the flood modelling results obtained using the reference DEM and the merged DEMs ranged from -9.845 to 0.002 m, and from 0.003 to 0.024 m s-1 respectively; these differences can have a significant impact on flood hazard estimates. In most of the cases investigated in this study, the differences from the reference DEM results were smaller for the MBlend method than for the results of the two conventional methods. This study highlighted the importance of DEM merging when conducting flood modelling and provided hints on the best DEM merging methods to use.

Citizen observations contributing to flood modelling: opportunities and challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. H. Assumpção

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Citizen contributions to science have been successfully implemented in many fields, and water resources is one of them. Through citizens, it is possible to collect data and obtain a more integrated decision-making process. Specifically, data scarcity has always been an issue in flood modelling, which has been addressed in the last decades by remote sensing and is already being discussed in the citizen science context. With this in mind, this article aims to review the literature on the topic and analyse the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. The literature on monitoring, mapping and modelling, was evaluated according to the flood-related variable citizens contributed to. Pros and cons of the collection/analysis methods were summarised. Then, pertinent publications were mapped into the flood modelling cycle, considering how citizen data properties (spatial and temporal coverage, uncertainty and volume are related to its integration into modelling. It was clear that the number of studies in the area is rising. There are positive experiences reported in collection and analysis methods, for instance with velocity and land cover, and also when modelling is concerned, for example by using social media mining. However, matching the data properties necessary for each part of the modelling cycle with citizen-generated data is still challenging. Nevertheless, the concept that citizen contributions can be used for simulation and forecasting is proved and further work lies in continuing to develop and improve not only methods for collection and analysis, but certainly for integration into models as well. Finally, in view of recent automated sensors and satellite technologies, it is through studies as the ones analysed in this article that the value of citizen contributions, complementing such technologies, is demonstrated.

Citizen observations contributing to flood modelling: opportunities and challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Assumpção, Thaine H.; Popescu, Ioana; Jonoski, Andreja; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-02-01

Citizen contributions to science have been successfully implemented in many fields, and water resources is one of them. Through citizens, it is possible to collect data and obtain a more integrated decision-making process. Specifically, data scarcity has always been an issue in flood modelling, which has been addressed in the last decades by remote sensing and is already being discussed in the citizen science context. With this in mind, this article aims to review the literature on the topic and analyse the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. The literature on monitoring, mapping and modelling, was evaluated according to the flood-related variable citizens contributed to. Pros and cons of the collection/analysis methods were summarised. Then, pertinent publications were mapped into the flood modelling cycle, considering how citizen data properties (spatial and temporal coverage, uncertainty and volume) are related to its integration into modelling. It was clear that the number of studies in the area is rising. There are positive experiences reported in collection and analysis methods, for instance with velocity and land cover, and also when modelling is concerned, for example by using social media mining. However, matching the data properties necessary for each part of the modelling cycle with citizen-generated data is still challenging. Nevertheless, the concept that citizen contributions can be used for simulation and forecasting is proved and further work lies in continuing to develop and improve not only methods for collection and analysis, but certainly for integration into models as well. Finally, in view of recent automated sensors and satellite technologies, it is through studies as the ones analysed in this article that the value of citizen contributions, complementing such technologies, is demonstrated.

Combining Space-Based and In-Situ Measurements to Track Flooding in Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Chien, Steve; Doubleday, Joshua; Mclaren, David; Tran, Daniel; Tanpipat, Veerachai; Chitradon, Royal; Boonya-aaroonnet, Surajate; Thanapakpawin, Porranee; Khunboa, Chatchai; Leelapatra, Watis;