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Sample records for modeling fire susceptibility

  1. Modeling fire susceptibility to delineate wildland-urban interface for municipal-scale fire risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

    2013-12-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.

  2. Applying genetic algorithms to set the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and model forest fire susceptibility based on data mining models. The case of Dayu County, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Haoyuan; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas; Ilia, Ioanna; Liu, Junzhi; Zhu, A-Xing; Xu, Chong

    2018-07-15

    The main objective of the present study was to utilize Genetic Algorithms (GA) in order to obtain the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and apply data mining methods for constructing a forest fire susceptibility map. In the proposed approach, a Random Forest (RF) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to produce a forest fire susceptibility map for the Dayu County which is located in southwest of Jiangxi Province, China. For this purpose, historic forest fires and thirteen forest fire related variables were analyzed, namely: elevation, slope angle, aspect, curvature, land use, soil cover, heat load index, normalized difference vegetation index, mean annual temperature, mean annual wind speed, mean annual rainfall, distance to river network and distance to road network. The Natural Break and the Certainty Factor method were used to classify and weight the thirteen variables, while a multicollinearity analysis was performed to determine the correlation among the variables and decide about their usability. The optimal set of variables, determined by the GA limited the number of variables into eight excluding from the analysis, aspect, land use, heat load index, distance to river network and mean annual rainfall. The performance of the forest fire models was evaluated by using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) based on the validation dataset. Overall, the RF models gave higher AUC values. Also the results showed that the proposed optimized models outperform the original models. Specifically, the optimized RF model gave the best results (0.8495), followed by the original RF (0.8169), while the optimized SVM gave lower values (0.7456) than the RF, however higher than the original SVM (0.7148) model. The study highlights the significance of feature selection techniques in forest fire susceptibility, whereas data mining methods could be considered as a valid approach for forest fire susceptibility modeling

  3. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  4. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  5. A comparative assessment of prediction capabilities of modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP and Mamdani fuzzy logic models using Netcad-GIS for forest fire susceptibility mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid reza Pourghasemi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to assess forest fire susceptibility maps (FFSMs and their performances comparison using modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP and Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL models in a geographic information system (GIS environment. This study was carried out in the Minudasht Forests, Golestan Province, Iran, and was conducted in three main stages such as spatial data construction, forest fire modelling using M-AHP and MFL, and validation of constructed models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve. At first, seven conditioning factors, such as altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, annual temperature, wind effect, land use, and normalized different vegetation index, were extracted from the spatial database. In the next step, FFSMs were prepared using M-AHP and MFL modules in a Netcad-GIS Architect environment. Finally, the ROC curves and area under the curves (AUCs were estimated for validation purposes. The results showed that the AUCs for MFL and M-AHP are 88.20% and 77.72%, respectively. The results obtained in this study also showed that the MFL model performed better than the M-AHP model. These FFSMs can be applied for land use planning, management, and prevention of future fire hazards.

  6. FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

    OpenAIRE

    Otto Dvořák

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

  7. Modeling of compartment fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathiah, P.; Siccama, A.; Visser, D.; Komen, E.

    2011-01-01

    Fire accident in a containment is a serious threat to nuclear reactors. Fire can cause substantial loss to life and property. The risk posed by fire can also exceed the risk from internal events within a nuclear reactor. Numerous research efforts have been performed to understand and analyze the phenomenon of fire in nuclear reactor and its consequences. Modeling of fire is an important subject in the field of fire safety engineering. Two approaches which are commonly used in fire modeling are zonal modeling and field modeling. The objective of this work is to compare zonal and field modeling approach against a pool fired experiment performed in a well-confined compartment. Numerical simulations were performed against experiments, which were conducted within PRISME program under the framework of OECD. In these experiments, effects of ventilation flow rate on heat release rate in a confined and mechanically ventilated compartment is investigated. Time dependent changes in gas temperature and oxygen mass fraction were measured. The trends obtained by numerical simulation performed using zonal model and field model compares well with experiments. Further validation is needed before this code can be used for fire safety analyses. (author)

  8. Modeling urban fire growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

  9. Fire Models and Design Fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Annemarie

    The aim of this project is to perform an experimental study on the influence of the thermal feedback on the burning behavior of well ventilated pre-flashover fires. For the purpose an experimental method has been developed. Here the same identical objects are tested under free burn conditions...... carried out by Carleton University and NRC-IRC performed on seven different types of fire loads representing commercial premises, comprise the tests used for the study. The results show that for some of the room test the heat release rate increased due to thermal feedback compared to free burn for a pre......-flashover fire. Two phenomena were observed, that relate well to theory was found. In an incipient phase the heat release rate rose with the temperature of the smoke layer/enclosure boundaries. This increase was also found to depend on the flammability properties of the burning object. The results also...

  10. FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otto Dvořák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

  11. Historical Susceptibility of Forest Fires in the Carajas Region, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conceicao, M. C.; Rodrigues, R. A.; Cordeiro, R. C.; Barbosa, M. R.; Santos, D. D.; Turcq, B. J.; Seoane, J. S.; Sifeddine, A.

    2008-12-01

    The Carajas Region in the Para state, nowadays keeps a vast area of forests protected by Units of Conservation and Indigenous Land. Despite the efforts and investments done by private companies and government agencies to prevent forest fires, they are still registered, being one of the major factors of degradation of forests, flora and fauna. Thus there is a need to improve the understanding of these burning processes at present, and its evolution in different time scales, which allows comparison between patterns of fire occurrences related to climate and human reasons. This study aims to assess the evolution of the climate of Carajas region along the Quaternary, with emphasis on natural occurrence of fires related to historical events palaeoclimatic. For this a sediment core of a lake with 450 cm of depth was collected. Chronology is being determined by the radiocarbon method. Ours specific objectives are quantify and qualify the source of sedimentary material, determine concentrations of biogenic elements and minerals, through granulometric and mineralogical analyses and of quality and quantity of organic matter through the establishment of elementary (the C/N) and isotopic ratios (ä13C and ä15N). The dimensions of processes linked to the biomass burning will be determined by quantifying of charcoal fragments resulting from fires through microscopic analysis. This seeks to reconstruct the environmental scene and paleoclimatics conditions related to events of biomass burning, demonstrating the susceptibility of this historic region to the occurrence of fires according to the different climate stages identified.

  12. Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glasa, J; Valasek, L; Weisenpacher, P; Halada, L

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

  13. Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

    2013-02-01

    Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

  14. FIRE BLIGHT SUSCEPTIBILITY OF SOME PEAR VARIETIES (ERWINIA AMYLOVORA, BURILL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zsolt Jakab- Ilyefalv

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At Bistriţa Fruit Research and Development Station, in a pear collection, planted with 44 varieties, there has been studied the susceptibility to fire blight (Erwinia amylovora,Burill. During the vegetation period, phytosanitary treatments to control the disease have been applied using copper based products (copper sulfate, Champion, Funguran, Kocide. Erwinia amylovora infections have been influenced by the rainfall registered in April (70.9 mm and May (104.7 mm and the temperature fluctuations in April-May. The field observations on Erwinia amylvora attack demonstrate that the pear varieties have a different susceptibility to this dangerous bacterium. Evaluation of attack level in the pear collection was done using an evaluation scale with 9 scores using a reference resistance scale for : ‘Highly resistant’ , ‘Moderately resistant’, ‘Susceptible’, ‘Very susceptible’ cultivars . The most sensitive pear varieties in the collection were: ‘De Noiembrie’, ‘Abatele Fetel’, ’Daciana’, ’Triumf’, ’Williams Boway’, ’Margareta Marillat’, ’Beauty Tomme’, ‘Williams rosu’, ’Aromata de Bistrita’, ’Jeanne d`Arc’, ’Aramiu de Somes’, ’Belle des Arbres’, ’Zorka’ representing 13.64% of the total pear varieties. In several cultivars there have been observed increased symptoms, a very high susceptibility of infections leading to complete scorching of trees: Jeanne d`Arc’, Williams rosu’, ‘Triumf’, ‘Aromata de Bistrita’, ‘Zorka’. Strong attack symtoms were observed at the pear cultivars ‘Cure’, ‘Euras, ’Ciuda’ ‘Highland’, ‘Precoce Morettini’, ’Monica’, ’Cadillac’, ’Juliana’, ’Somesan’, ’Beurré Hardenpont’ these cultivars being susceptible to Erwinia amylovora , representing 40.91 % of total genotypes . Cultivars ‘Untoasa Geoagiu’, ‘Beurre Hardy’, ‘Trivale’ manifested a certain tolerance to Erwinia amylovora , no attack symptoms being

  15. 2013 Annual Report: Fire Modeling Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Innes; Faith Ann Heinsch; Kristine M. Lee

    2014-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) of the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS), is a national and international resource for fire managers. Located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program at the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory (Fire Lab) in Montana, FMI helps managers utilize fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the...

  16. Model of large pool fires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fay, J.A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)]. E-mail: jfay@mit.edu

    2006-08-21

    A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.

  17. Model of large pool fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fay, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables

  18. Ventilation system in fire modelization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordero Garcia, S.

    2012-01-01

    There is a model of fire in an enclosure formed by two rooms. In one of them, it will cause the fire and check how the system of ventilation in different configurations responds. In addition, the behavior of selected targets, which will be a configuration of cables similar to those found in nuclear power stations will be analyzed.

  19. Fire models for assessment of nuclear power plant fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Nowlen, S.P.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in available fire models for the assessment of nuclear power plants fires. The advantages and disadvantages of three basic types of fire models (zone, field, and control volume) and Sandia's experience with these models will be discussed. It is shown that the type of fire model selected to solve a particular problem should be based on the information that is required. Areas of concern which relate to all nuclear power plant fire models are identified. 17 refs., 6 figs

  20. Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2008-01-01

    A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...

  1. Analytical model for cable tray fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.K.

    1975-09-01

    A model for cable tray fires based on buoyant plume theory is presented. Using the model in conjunction with empirical data on size of natural fires and burning rate of cellulosic materials, estimates are made of the heat flux as a function of vertical and horizontal distance from a tray fire. Both local fires and fires extending along a significant length of tray are considered. For the particular set of fire parameters assumed in the calculations, the current tray separation criteria of five feet vertical and three feet horizontal are found to be marginal for local fires and too small to prevent fire spread for extended tray fires. 8 references. (auth)

  2. Model of multiroom fire spread

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Takeyoshi.

    1983-01-01

    This paper presents a refined version of a mathematical model for predicting the hot gas flow induced by fires in multiroom structures. Two layer zone modeling approach is used in the mathematical formulation of the model. Some of the results of sample calculations of the model are also given for a couple of model structures

  3. Relative Susceptibility of Quince, Pear, and Apple Cultivars to Fire Blight Following Greenhouse Inoculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fire blight caused by Erwinia amylovora (EA) is one of the most serious diseases of plants in the family Rosaceae, and Quince (Cydonia oblonga Mill.) is considered one of the most susceptible host genera. Apple (Malus sp.) and pear (Pyrus sp.) cultivars ranging from most susceptible to most resistan...

  4. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  5. Susceptible-infected-recovered and susceptible-exposed-infected models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tome, Tania; De Oliveira, Mario J

    2011-01-01

    Two stochastic epidemic lattice models, the susceptible-infected-recovered and the susceptible-exposed-infected models, are studied on a Cayley tree of coordination number k. The spreading of the disease in the former is found to occur when the infection probability b is larger than b c = k/2(k - 1). In the latter, which is equivalent to a dynamic site percolation model, the spreading occurs when the infection probability p is greater than p c = 1/(k - 1). We set up and solve the time evolution equations for both models and determine the final and time-dependent properties, including the epidemic curve. We show that the two models are closely related by revealing that their relevant properties are exactly mapped into each other when p = b/[k - (k - 1)b]. These include the cluster size distribution and the density of individuals of each type, quantities that have been determined in closed forms.

  6. Mapping Forest Fire Susceptibility in Temperate Mountain Areas with Expert Knowledge. A Case Study from Iezer Mountains, Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, Bogdan; Savulescu, Ionut

    2014-05-01

    Forest fires in Romanian Carpathians became a frequent phenomenon during the last decade, although local climate and other environmental features did not create typical conditions. From 2004, forest fires affect in Romania more than 100 hectares/year of different forest types (deciduous and coniferous). Their magnitude and frequency are not known, since a historical forest fire inventory does not exist (only press papers and local witness for some selected events). Forest fires features the summer dry periods but there are dry autumns and early winter periods with events of different magnitudes. The application we propose is based on an empirical modeling of forest fire susceptibility in a typical mountain area from the Southern Carpathians, the Iezer Mountains (2462 m). The study area features almost all the altitudinal vegetation zones of the European temperate mountains, from the beech zone, to the coniferous zone, the subalpine and the alpine zones (Mihai et al., 2007). The analysis combines GIS and remote sensing models (Chuvieco et al., 2012), starting from the ideas that forest fires are featured by the ignition zones and then by the fire propagation zones. The first data layer (ignition zones) is the result of the crossing between the ignition factors: lightning - points of multitemporal occurence and anthropogenic activities (grazing, tourism and traffic) and the ignition zones (forest fuel zonation - forest stands, soil cover and topoclimatic factor zonation). This data is modelled from different sources: the MODIS imagery fire product (Hantson et al., 2012), detailed topographic maps, multitemporal orthophotos at 0.5 m resolution, Landsat multispectral imagery, forestry cadastre maps, detailed soil maps, meteorological data (the WorldClim digital database) as well as the field survey (mapping using GPS and local observation). The second data layer (fire propagation zones) is the result of the crossing between the forest fuel zonation, obtained with the

  7. Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Patrick A. Zollner; Brian R. Sturtevant; S. He Hong; David J. Mladenoff

    2004-01-01

    We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to study the effects of six alternative vegetation management scenarios on forest succession and the subsequent risk of canopy fire on a 2791 km2 landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study area is a mix of fire-prone and fire-resistant land types. The alternatives vary the spatial...

  8. A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

    2004-01-01

    Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

  9. Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Keith Gilless; Jeremy S. Fried

    1998-01-01

    A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making...

  10. Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick W. Bratten

    1982-01-01

    A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

  11. Tropical Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping at the Cat Ba National Park Area, Hai Phong City, Vietnam, Using GIS-Based Kernel Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieu Tien Bui

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Cat Ba National Park area (Vietnam with its tropical forest is recognized as being part of the world biodiversity conservation by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO and is a well-known destination for tourists, with around 500,000 travelers per year. This area has been the site for many research projects; however, no project has been carried out for forest fire susceptibility assessment. Thus, protection of the forest including fire prevention is one of the main concerns of the local authorities. This work aims to produce a tropical forest fire susceptibility map for the Cat Ba National Park area, which may be helpful for the local authorities in forest fire protection management. To obtain this purpose, first, historical forest fires and related factors were collected from various sources to construct a GIS database. Then, a forest fire susceptibility model was developed using Kernel logistic regression. The quality of the model was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC, and five statistical evaluation measures. The usability of the resulting model is further compared with a benchmark model, the support vector machine (SVM. The results show that the Kernel logistic regression model has a high level of performance in both the training and validation dataset, with a prediction capability of 92.2%. Since the Kernel logistic regression model outperforms the benchmark model, we conclude that the proposed model is a promising alternative tool that should also be considered for forest fire susceptibility mapping in other areas. The results of this study are useful for the local authorities in forest planning and management.

  12. Fire Modeling Institute 2011 Annual Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Innes

    2012-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI), a part of the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program, provides a bridge between scientists and managers. The mission of FMI is to bring the best available science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear on fire-related management issues across the nation. Resource management...

  13. Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time

  14. Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time.

  15. Timing of susceptibility to post-fire debris flows in the western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGraff, Jerome V.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Watersheds recently burned by wildfires can have an increased susceptibility to debris flow, although little is known about how long this susceptibility persists, and how it changes over time. We here use a compilation of 75 debris-flow response and fire-ignition dates, vegetation and bedrock class, rainfall regime, and initiation process from throughout the western U.S. to address these issues. The great majority (85 percent) of debris flows occurred within the first 12 months following wildfire, with 71 percent within the first six months. Seven percent of the debris flows occurred between 1 and 1.5 years after a fire, or during the second rainy season to impact an area. Within the first 1.5 years following fires, all but one of the debris flows initiated through runoff-dominated processes, and debris flows occurred in similar proportions in forested and non-forested landscapes. Geologic materials affected how long debris-flow activity persisted, and the timing of debris flows varied within different rainfall regimes. A second, later period of increased debris flow susceptibility between 2.2 and 10 years after fires is indicated by the remaining 8 percent of events, which occurred primarily in forested terrains and initiated largely through landslide processes. The short time period between fire and debris-flow response within the first 1.5 years after ignition, and the longer-term response between 2.2 and 10 years after fire, demonstrate the necessity of both rapid and long-term reactions by land managers and emergency-response agencies to mitigate hazards from debris flows from recently burned areas in the western U.S.

  16. Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Kulakowski

    Full Text Available The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand

  17. Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

    2005-03-01

    Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model

  18. Performance of fire behavior fuel models developed for the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Ziel; W. Matt Jolly

    2009-01-01

    In 2005, 40 new fire behavior fuel models were published for use with the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model. These new models are intended to augment the original 13 developed in 1972 and 1976. As a compiled set of quantitative fuel descriptions that serve as input to the Rothermel model, the selected fire behavior fuel model has always been critical to the resulting...

  19. Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere–fire numerical model

    OpenAIRE

    Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    Fire channelling is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep lee-facing slope in a direction transverse to the background winds, and is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and extreme pyro-convection. Recent work using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire model has demonstrated that fire channelling can be characterised as vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VDLS). In t...

  20. Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T; Bebi, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand-replacing fires were

  1. Susceptibility of eastern U.S. habitats to invasion of Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) following fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leicht-Young, Stacey A.; Pavlovic, Noel B.; Grundel, Ralph

    2013-01-01

    Fire effects on invasive species are an important land management issue in areas subjected to prescribed fires as well as wildfires. These effects on invasive species can be manifested across life stages. The liana Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) is a widespread invader of eastern US habitats including those where fire management is in practice. This study examined if prescribed fire makes these habitats more susceptible to invasion of C. orbiculatus by seed at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore. Four treatments (control, litter removed, high and low intensity fire) were applied in six habitat types (sand savanna/woodland, sand prairie, moraine prairie, sand oak forest, beech-maple forest, and oak-hickory forest) and germinating seedlings were tracked over two growing seasons. Treatment did not have a significant effect on the germination, survival, or biomass of C. orbiculatus. However, habitat type did influence these responses mostly in the first growing season. Moraine prairie, beech-maple forest, and oak-hickory forests had the greatest peak percentage of germinants. Moraine prairie had significantly greater survival than oak forest and savanna habitats. Control plots with intact litter, and the moraine prairie habitat had the tallest seedlings at germination, while tallest final heights and greatest aboveground biomass were highest in oak forest. Thus, fire and litter removal did not increase the susceptibility of these habitats to germination and survival of C. orbiculatus. These results indicate that most eastern US habitats are vulnerable to invasion by this species via seed regardless of the level or type of disturbance to the litter layer.

  2. Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Antoine Santoni

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

  3. The differential susceptibility to media effects model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this theoretical article, we introduce the Differential Susceptibility to Media Effects Model (DSMM), a new, integrative model to improve our understanding of media effects. The DSMM organizes, integrates, and extends the insights developed in earlier microlevel media-effects theories. It

  4. Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

    2011-01-01

    Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

  5. Fire Propagation Tracing Model in the Explicit Treatment of Events of Fire PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Jun Eon

    2010-01-01

    The fire propagation model in a fire PSA has not been considered analytically instead a simplified analyst's intuition was used to consider the fire propagation path. A fire propagation equation is developed to trace all the propagation paths in the fire area in which a zone is defined to identify various fire ignition sources. An initiation of fire is assumed to take place in a zone. Then, the propagation is modeled with a Boolean equation. Since the explicit fire PSA modeling requires an exclusive event set to sum up the..., exclusive event sets are derived from the fire propagation equation. As an example, we show the exclusive set for a 2x3 rectangular fire zone. Also, the applicability the developed fire equation is discussed when the number of zone increases including the limitation of the explicit fire PSA modeling method

  6. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Henri Balbi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.

  7. Modelling the probability of building fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Barták

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

  8. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1982-01-01

    Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....

  9. Parametric analysis of fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Yang, J. Y.; Kim, J. H.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the pump room fire of the nuclear power plant using CFAST fire modeling code developed by NIST. It is determined by the constrained or unconstrained fire, Lower Oxygen Limit (LOL), Radiative Fraction (RF), and the times to open doors, which are the input parameters of CAFST. According to the results, pump room fire is ventilation-controlled fire, so it is adequate that the value of LOL is 10% which is also the default value. It is appeared that the RF does not change the temperature of the upper gas layer. But the level of opening of the penetrating area and the times to opening it have an effect on the temperature of the upper layer, so it is determined that the results of it should be carefully analyzed

  10. Simulating wall and corner fire tests on wood products with the OSU room fire model

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. C. Tran

    1994-01-01

    This work demonstrates the complexity of modeling wall and corner fires in a compartment. The model chosen for this purpose is the Ohio State University (OSU) room fire model. This model was designed to simulate fire growth on walls in a compartment and therefore lends itself to direct comparison with standard room test results. The model input were bench-scale data...

  11. Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Yang, K.T.

    1995-09-01

    This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories' participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia's participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants

  12. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  13. Applications of Living Fire PRA models to Fire Protection Significance Determination Process in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De-Cheng, Chen; Chung-Kung, Lo; Tsu-Jen, Lin; Ching-Hui, Wu; Lin, James C.

    2004-01-01

    The living fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models for all three operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan had been established in December 2000. In that study, a scenario-based PRA approach was adopted to systematically evaluate the fire and smoke hazards and associated risks. Using these fire PRA models developed, a risk-informed application project had also been completed in December 2002 for the evaluation of cable-tray fire-barrier wrapping exemption. This paper presents a new application of the fire PRA models to fire protection issues using the fire protection significance determination process (FP SDP). The fire protection issues studied may involve the selection of appropriate compensatory measures during the period when an automatic fire detection or suppression system in a safety-related fire zone becomes inoperable. The compensatory measure can either be a 24-hour fire watch or an hourly fire patrol. The living fire PRA models were used to estimate the increase in risk associated with the fire protection issue in terms of changes in core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF). In compliance with SDP at-power and the acceptance guidelines specified in RG 1.174, the fire protection issues in question can be grouped into four categories; red, yellow, white and green, in accordance with the guidelines developed for FD SDP. A 24-hour fire watch is suggested only required for the yellow condition, while an hourly fire patrol may be adopted for the white condition. More limiting requirement is suggested for the red condition, but no special consideration is needed for the green condition. For the calculation of risk measures, risk impacts from any additional fire scenarios that may have been introduced, as well as more severe initiating events and fire damages that may accompany the fire protection issue should be considered carefully. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the evaluation process. (authors)

  14. Numerical modeling of fires on gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yang; Jianbo Lai; Lu Liu

    2011-01-01

    When natural gas is released through a hole on a high-pressure pipeline, it disperses in the atmosphere as a jet. A jet fire will occur when the leaked gas meets an ignition source. To estimate the dangerous area, the shape and size of the fire must be known. The evolution of the jet fire in air is predicted by using a finite-volume procedure to solve the flow equations. The model is three-dimensional, elliptic and calculated by using a compressibility corrected version of the k - ξ turbulence model, and also includes a probability density function/laminar flamelet model of turbulent non-premixed combustion process. Radiation heat transfer is described using an adaptive version of the discrete transfer method. The model is compared with the experiments about a horizontal jet fire in a wind tunnel in the literature with success. The influence of wind and jet velocity on the fire shape has been investigated. And a correlation based on numerical results for predicting the stoichiometric flame length is proposed. - Research highlights: → We developed a model to predict the evolution of turbulent jet diffusion flames. → Measurements of temperature distributions match well with the numerical predictions. → A correlation has been proposed to predict the stoichiometric flame length. → Buoyancy effects are higher in the numerical results. → The radiative heat loss is bigger in the experimental results.

  15. Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences

  16. Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences.

  17. Review of UCN 5,6 Fire PSA Model based on ANS Fire PRA Standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Joon Eon; Lee, Yoon Hwan

    2006-12-01

    Recently, under the de-regulation environment, nuclear industry has attempted various approaches to improve the economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). This approach uses the fire risk and performance information to manage the resources effectively and efficiently that are used in the operation of NPP. In fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation, fire PSA quality is one of the most important things. The nuclear industry and regulatory body of U.S.A have developed a measure to evaluate the quality of fire PSA. ANS (American Nuclear Society) has developed a guidance called 'ANS Fire PRA Methodology Standard'. However, in Korea, there have been no attempts to evaluate the quality of fire PSA model itself. Therefore, we cannot be sure about the quality of fire PSA whether or not the present fire PSA model can be used for the risk-informed applications such as mentioned above. We can say that the evaluation of fire PSA model quality is the basis for the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation. In this report, we have evaluated the quality of fire PSA model for Ulchin 5 and 6 units based on the ANS Fire PRA Standard. We, also, have derived what items are to be improved to upgrade the quality of fire PSA model and how it can be improved. This report can be used as the base of the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation work in Korea

  18. A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric L. Smith

    1987-01-01

    Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

  19. Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Richard D; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

    1991-01-01

    With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system.

  20. Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Richard D.; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

    1991-01-01

    With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system. PMID:28184121

  1. Sodium pool fire model for CONACS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yung, S.C.

    1982-01-01

    The modeling of sodium pool fires constitutes an important ingredient in conducting LMFBR accident analysis. Such modeling capability has recently come under scrutiny at Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) within the context of developing CONACS, the Containment Analysis Code System. One of the efforts in the CONACS program is to model various combustion processes anticipated to occur during postulated accident paths. This effort includes the selection or modification of an existing model and development of a new model if it clearly contributes to the program purpose. As part of this effort, a new sodium pool fire model has been developed that is directed at removing some of the deficiencies in the existing models, such as SOFIRE-II and FEUNA

  2. Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

  3. 76 FR 46330 - NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-02

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2009-0568] NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling... 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft Report for...), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft for Comment,'' is...

  4. Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the wildland fire emissions information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy H.F. French; Donald McKenzie; Tyler Erickson; Benjamin Koziol; Michael Billmire; K. Endsley; Naomi K.Y. Scheinerman; Liza Jenkins; Mary E. Miller; Roger Ottmar; Susan Prichard

    2014-01-01

    As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent...

  5. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  6. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  7. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  8. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

  9. The susceptibilities in the spin-S Ising model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ainane, A.; Saber, M.

    1995-08-01

    The susceptibilities of the spin-S Ising model are evaluated using the effective field theory introduced by Tucker et al. for studying general spin-S Ising model. The susceptibilities are studied for all spin values from S = 1/2 to S = 5/2. (author). 12 refs, 4 figs

  10. Modelling of fire spread in car parks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.

  11. Fire simulation of pool fire with effects of a ventilation controlled compartment by using a fire model, CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Matsuyama, Ken

    2015-01-01

    The basic performance for numerical analysis of fire parameters in a compartment by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings, was examined. Special attentions were paid to the effects of compartment geometry under poor ventilation conditions with mechanical systems. The simulations were carried out under conditions corresponding to previous experiments, in which fire parameters have been precisely measured. The comparison between numerical simulations and experiments indicated that the CFAST principally has a capability to represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment, by applying the proper boundary conditions. These results suggest that numerical analysis for time-series of air temperature and smoke concentration in compartments must be a powerful tool for discussion on validity of fire protection schemes. (author)

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  13. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marie Kehrwald

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  14. Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses

  15. Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

    2011-12-01

    Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of

  16. Large urban fire environment: trends and model city predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center

  17. Development and validation of a physics-based urban fire spread model

    OpenAIRE

    HIMOTO, Keisuke; TANAKA, Takeyoshi

    2008-01-01

    A computational model for fire spread in a densely built urban area is developed. The model is distinct from existing models in that it explicitly describes fire spread phenomena with physics-based knowledge achieved in the field of fire safety engineering. In the model, urban fire is interpreted as an ensemble of multiple building fires; that is, the fire spread is simulated by predicting behaviors of individual building fires under the thermal influence of neighboring building fires. Adopte...

  18. Comparing effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Eric J. Gustafson

    2008-01-01

    We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation. size-based minimum travel time algorithm. and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two-way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on...

  19. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  20. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  1. Evaluation of a post-fire tree mortality model for western US conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon M. Hood; Charles W McHugh; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Sheri L. Smith

    2007-01-01

    Accurately predicting fire-caused mortality is essential to developing prescribed fire burn plans and post-fire salvage marking guidelines. The mortality model included in the commonly used USA fire behaviour and effects models, the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS), has not...

  2. Prioritization of reactor control components susceptible to fire damage as a consequence of aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowry, W.; Vigil, R.; Nowlen, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Test Program is to identify and assess issues of plant aging that could lead to an increase in nuclear power plant risk because of fires. Historical component data and prior analyses are used to prioritize a list of components with respect to aging and fire vulnerability and the consequences of their failure on plant safety systems. The component list emphasizes safety system control components, but excludes cables, large equipment, and devices encompassed in the Equipment Qualification (EQ) program. The test program selected components identified in a utility survey and developed test and fire conditions necessary to maximize the effectiveness of the test program. Fire damage considerations were limited to purely thermal effects

  3. FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTING MODELS EFFICIENCY IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Leonardo Alves White

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowing how a wildfire will behave is extremely important in order to assist in fire suppression and prevention operations. Since the 1940’s mathematical models to estimate how the fire will behave have been developed worldwide, however, none of them, until now, had their efficiency tested in Brazilian commercial eucalypt plantations nor in other vegetation types in the country. This study aims to verify the accuracy of the Rothermel (1972 fire spread model, the Byram (1959 flame length model, and the fire spread and length equations derived from the McArthur (1962 control burn meters. To meet these objectives, 105 experimental laboratory fires were done and their results compared with the predicted values from the models tested. The Rothermel and Byram models predicted better than McArthur’s, nevertheless, all of them underestimated the fire behavior aspects evaluated and were statistically different from the experimental data.

  4. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  5. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  6. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  7. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  8. Concepts for Future Large Fire Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. P. Dimitrakopoulos; R. E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    A small number of fires escape initial attack suppression efforts and become large, but their effects are significant and disproportionate. In 1983, of 200,000 wildland fires in the United States, only 4,000 exceeded 100 acres. However, these escaped fires accounted for roughly 95 percent of wildfire-related costs and damages (Pyne, 1984). Thus, future research efforts...

  9. Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  10. FireStem2D — A two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efthalia K. Chatziefstratiou; Gil Bohrer; Anthony S. Bova; Ravishankar Subramanian; Renato P.M. Frasson; Amy Scherzer; Bret W. Butler; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2013-01-01

    FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by...

  11. Firing patterns in the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Richard; Marcille, Nicolas; Clopath, Claudia; Gerstner, Wulfram

    2008-11-01

    For simulations of large spiking neuron networks, an accurate, simple and versatile single-neuron modeling framework is required. Here we explore the versatility of a simple two-equation model: the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron. We show that this model generates multiple firing patterns depending on the choice of parameter values, and present a phase diagram describing the transition from one firing type to another. We give an analytical criterion to distinguish between continuous adaption, initial bursting, regular bursting and two types of tonic spiking. Also, we report that the deterministic model is capable of producing irregular spiking when stimulated with constant current, indicating low-dimensional chaos. Lastly, the simple model is fitted to real experiments of cortical neurons under step current stimulation. The results provide support for the suitability of simple models such as the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron for large network simulations.

  12. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

    2012-01-01

    Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

  13. International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

    2008-09-01

    This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

  14. Comparing two models for post-wildfire debris flow susceptibility mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, J.; Bursik, M. I.; Legorreta Paulin, G.

    2017-12-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic post-fire debris flow susceptibility mapping has been performed based on the typical method of failure for debris flows/landslides, where slip occurs along a basal shear zone as a result of rainfall infiltration. Recent studies have argued that post-fire debris flows are fundamentally different in their method of initiation, which is not infiltration-driven, but surface runoff-driven. We test these competing models by comparing the accuracy of the susceptibility maps produced by each initiation method. Debris flow susceptibility maps are generated according to each initiation method for a mountainous region of Southern California that recently experienced wildfire and subsequent debris flows. A multiple logistic regression (MLR), which uses the occurrence of past debris flows and the values of environmental parameters, was used to determine the probability of future debris flow occurrence. The independent variables used in the MLR are dependent on the initiation method; for example, depth to slip plane, and shear strength of soil are relevant to the infiltration initiation, but not surface runoff. A post-fire debris flow inventory serves as the standard to compare the two susceptibility maps, and was generated by LiDAR analysis and field based ground-truthing. The amount of overlap between the true locations where debris flow erosion can be documented, and where the MLR predicts high probability of debris flow initiation was statistically quantified. The Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) was used to compare the two models, and the results of the FMS comparison suggest that surface runoff-driven initiation better explains debris flow occurrence. Wildfire can breed conditions that induce debris flows in areas that normally would not be prone to them. Because of this, nearby communities at risk may not be equipped to protect themselves against debris flows. In California, there are just a few months between wildland fire season and the wet

  15. Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medler, Michael Johns

    Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy

  16. Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.

    1996-03-01

    Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem 'Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility'. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.)

  17. Mathematical modeling of agricultural fires beneath high voltage transmission lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Zohri, Emad H.; Shafey, Hamdy M.; Abdel-Salam, M.; Ahmed, A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for agricultural fires based on a multi-phase formulation. The model includes dehydration and pyrolysis of agricultural fuel and pyrolysis products. The model considers a homogeneous distribution of the agricultural solid fuel particles, interacting with the gas flow via source terms. These terms include: drag forces, production of water vapour and pyrolysis products, radiative and convective heat exchange. A multi-phase radiative transfer equation for absorbing-emitting medium is considered to account for the radiative heat exchange between the gas and solid phases of the fire. The main outputs of the present model are most important to study the influence of agricultural fire occurring beneath high voltage transmission lines. The agricultural fire causes a flashover due to the ambient temperature rise and soot accumulation on the insulator of these transmission lines. Numerical results of the present model are obtained for flat grassland fires to study the effects of wind velocity, solid fuel moisture content and ignition length on some selected fire outputs. These outputs include the temperature, velocity, soot volume fraction fields of the gas phase, together with fire propagation rate and flame geometry. The numerical results are compared to the available experimental work in the literature. -- Research highlights: → The model is sensitive to the initial condition of the ignition length affecting the fire propagation rate and width. → The model predicts the effects of both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content on fire propagation rate, in agreement with the available experimental work in the literature. → The model shows that both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content are important factors affecting the fire plume thickness, location, and inclination. → The model is able to visualize the flame geometry through tracing radiative heat rates exceeding a threshold value for flame visibility (60 k

  18. FIRE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brtis, J.S.; Hausheer, T.G.

    1990-01-01

    FIRE, a microcomputer based program to assist engineers in reviewing and documenting the fire protection impact of design changes has been developed. Acting as an electronic consultant, FIRE is designed to work with an experienced nuclear system engineer, who may not have any detailed fire protection expertise. FIRE helps the engineer to decide if a modification might adversely affect the fire protection design of the station. Since its first development, FIRE has been customized to reflect the fire protection philosophy of the Commonwealth Edison Company. That program is in early production use. This paper discusses the FIRE program in light of its being a useful application of expert system technologies in the power industry

  19. Modeling fire and other disturbance processes using LANDIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; Jian Yang; Hong He

    2009-01-01

    LANDIS is a landscape decision support tool that models spatial relationships to help managers and planners examine the large-scale, long-term, cumulative effects of succession, harvesting, wildfire, prescribed fire, insects, and disease. It can operate on forest landscapes from a few thousand to a few million acres in extent. Fire modeling capabilities in LANDIS are...

  20. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  1. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

    2014-05-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

  2. Numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Kuldeep; Li, Chiping; Kailasanath, K.; Ndubizu, Chuka; Ananth, Ramagopal; Tatem, P. A.

    1999-12-01

    The focus of this paper is on numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires. A mathematical model is first developed to describe the evaporation and burning of a two-dimensional or axisymmetric pool containing pure liquid methanol. Then, the complete set of unsteady, compressible Navier-Stokes equations for reactive flows are solved in the gas phase to describe the convection of the fuel gases away from the pool surface, diffusion of the gases into the surrounding air and the oxidation of the fuel into product species. Heat transfer into the liquid pool and the metal container through conduction, convection and radiation are modelled by solving a modified form of the energy equation. Clausius-Clapeyron relationships are invoked to model the evaporation rate of a two-dimensional pool of pure liquid methanol. The governing equations along with appropriate boundary and interface conditions are solved using the flux-corrected transport algorithm. Numerical results exhibit a flame structure that compares well with experimental observations. Temperature profiles and burning rates were found to compare favourably with experimental data from single- and three-compartment laboratory burners. The model predicts a puffing frequency of approximately 12 Hz for a 1 cm diameter methanol pool in the absence of any air co-flow. It is also observed that increasing the air co-flow velocity helps in stabilizing the diffusion flame, by pushing the vortical structures away from the flame region.

  3. IMPROVING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF DISASTER MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF PROPOSING FIREML FOR FOREST FIRE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jiang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML, extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  4. Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  5. Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.

  6. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

  7. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

  8. Modeling the spatial distribution of forest crown biomass and effects on fire behavior with FUEL3D and WFDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William Mell; Peter McCauley

    2010-01-01

    Crown fire poses challenges to fire managers and can endanger fire fighters. Understanding of how fire interacts with tree crowns is essential to informed decisions about crown fire. Current operational crown fire predictions in the United States assume homogeneous crown fuels. While a new class of research fire models, which model fire behavior with computational...

  9. Fire and Heat Spreading Model Based on Cellular Automata Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samartsev, A. A.; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Fominykh, D. S.

    2018-05-01

    The distinctive feature of the proposed fire and heat spreading model in premises is the reduction of the computational complexity due to the use of the theory of cellular automata with probability rules of behavior. The possibilities and prospects of using this model in practice are noted. The proposed model has a simple mechanism of integration with agent-based evacuation models. The joint use of these models could improve floor plans and reduce the time of evacuation from premises during fires.

  10. Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

    2016-01-01

    Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from

  11. Modeling of air toxics from hydrocarbon pool fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, K.A.; Aydil, M.L.; Barone, J.B.

    1996-01-01

    While there is guidance for estimating the radiation hazards of fires (ARCHIE), there is little guidance on modeling the dispersion of hazardous materials from fires. The objective of this paper is to provide a review of the methodology used for modeling the impacts of liquid hydrocarbon pool fires. The required input variables for modeling of hydrocarbon pool fires include emission strength, emission duration, and dispersion characteristics. Methods for predicting the products of combustion including the use of literature values, test data, and thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are discussed. The use of energy balances coupled to radiative heat transfer calculations are presented as a method for determining flame temperature. Fire modeling literature is reviewed in order to determine other source release variables such as mass burn rate and duration and flame geometry

  12. FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.

    1997-06-01

    This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF 6 . The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF 6 cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF 6 in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF 6 reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed

  13. Epidemic spreading in annealed directed networks: susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Sungchul; Kim, Yup

    2013-01-01

    We investigate epidemic spreading in annealed directed scale-free networks with the in-degree (k) distribution P(in)(k)~k(-γ(in)) and the out-degree (ℓ) distribution, P(out)(ℓ)~ℓ(-γ(out)). The correlation of each node on the networks is controlled by the probability r(0≤r≤1) in two different algorithms, the so-called k and ℓ algorithms. For r=1, the k algorithm gives =, whereas the ℓ algorithm gives =. For r=0, = for both algorithms. As the prototype of epidemic spreading, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process on the networks are analyzed using the heterogeneous mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. The directedness of links and the correlation of the network are found to play important roles in the spreading, so that critical behaviors of both models are distinct from those on undirected scale-free networks.

  14. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  15. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  16. Experimental and numerical modeling of shrub crown fire initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watcharapong Tachajapong; Jesse Lozano; Shakar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; David Weise

    2009-01-01

    The transition of fire from dry surface fuels to wet shrub crown fuels was studied using laboratory experiments and a simple physical model to gain a better understanding of the transition process. In the experiments, we investigated the effects of varying vertical distances between surface and crown fuels (crown base height), and of the wind speed on crown fire...

  17. Mathematical modelling of fire in forced ventilated enclosures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, G.; Kumar, S.

    1985-01-01

    The application of a computer fire simulation model to the prediction of conditions in a forced ventilated experimental fire test cell at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is discussed. Comparisons between theoretical and experimental determinations are shown to be in reasonable agreement and areas requiring further research indicated

  18. Molecular polarizabilities and susceptibilities from Frost-model wavefunctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amos, A.T.; Yoffe, J.A.

    1975-01-01

    Average polarizabilities and susceptibilities of a number of molecules are computed from Frost-model wavefunctions using a form of symmetry-adapted double perturbation theory. The anisotropy of α and chi is found for a few molecules using the elliptical Gaussian form of the Frost model. The results obtained are in reasonable agreement with experiment and other calculated values

  19. Global stability of a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on networks with individual awareness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ke-Zan; Xu Zhong-Pu; Zhu Guang-Hu; Ding Yong

    2014-01-01

    Recent research results indicate that individual awareness can play an important influence on epidemic spreading in networks. By local stability analysis, a significant conclusion is that the embedded awareness in an epidemic network can increase its epidemic threshold. In this paper, by using limit theory and dynamical system theory, we further give global stability analysis of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks with awareness. Results show that the obtained epidemic threshold is also a global stability condition for its endemic equilibrium, which implies the embedded awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold globally. Some numerical examples are presented to verify the theoretical results. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  20. Modeling fuels and fire effects in 3D: Model description and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois Pimont; Russell Parsons; Eric Rigolot; Francois de Coligny; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Philippe Dreyfus; Rodman R. Linn

    2016-01-01

    Scientists and managers critically need ways to assess how fuel treatments alter fire behavior, yet few tools currently exist for this purpose.We present a spatially-explicit-fuel-modeling system, FuelManager, which models fuels, vegetation growth, fire behavior (using a physics-based model, FIRETEC), and fire effects. FuelManager's flexible approach facilitates...

  1. Use of numerical modeling in design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    modification to the motion and reaction due to their non-sphericity. The simulation results show a big difference between the two cases and indicate it is very significant to take into account the non-sphericity of biomass particles in order to model biomass combustion more accurately. Methods to improve...... of numerical modeling. The models currently used to predict solid fuel combustion rely on a spherical particle shape assumption, which may deviate a lot from reality for big biomass particles. A sphere gives a minimum in terms of the surface-area-to-volume ratio, which impacts significantly both motion...... and reaction of a particle. To better understand biomass combustion and thus improve the design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners, non-sphericity of biomass particles is considered. To ease comparison, two cases are numerically studied in a 10m long gas/biomass co-fired burner model. (1) The biomass...

  2. Optimal control in a model of malaria with differential susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincapié, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan

    2014-06-01

    A malaria model with differential susceptibility is analyzed using the optimal control technique. In the model the human population is classified as susceptible, infected and recovered. Susceptibility is assumed dependent on genetic, physiological, or social characteristics that vary between individuals. The model is described by a system of differential equations that relate the human and vector populations, so that the infection is transmitted to humans by vectors, and the infection is transmitted to vectors by humans. The model considered is analyzed using the optimal control method when the control consists in using of insecticide-treated nets and educational campaigns; and the optimality criterion is to minimize the number of infected humans, while keeping the cost as low as is possible. One first goal is to determine the effects of differential susceptibility in the proposed control mechanism; and the second goal is to determine the algebraic form of the basic reproductive number of the model. All computations are performed using computer algebra, specifically Maple. It is claimed that the analytical results obtained are important for the design and implementation of control measures for malaria. It is suggested some future investigations such as the application of the method to other vector-borne diseases such as dengue or yellow fever; and also it is suggested the possible application of free software of computer algebra like Maxima.

  3. Model of fire spread around Krsko Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidmar, P.; Petelin, S.

    2001-01-01

    The idea behind the article is how to define fire behaviour. The work is based on an analytical study of fire origin, its development and spread. The study is based on thermodynamics, heat transfer and the study of hydrodynamics and combustion, which represent the bases of fire dynamics. The article shows a practical example of a leak of hazardous chemicals from a tank. Because of the inflammability of the fluid, fire may start. We have tried to model fire propagation around the Krsko power plant, and show what extended surrounding area could be affected. The model also considers weather conditions, in particular wind speed and direction. For this purpose we have used the computer code Safer Trace, which is based on zone models. That means that phenomena are described by physical and empirical equations. An imperfection in this computer code is the inability to consider ground topology. However in the case of the Krsko power plant, topology is not so important, as the plan is located in a relatively flat region. Mathematical models are presented. They show the propagation of hazardous fluid in the environment considering meteorological data. The work also shows which data are essential to define fire spread and shows the main considerations of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for external fire event.(author)

  4. Susceptibility and magnetization of a random Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, D; Srivastava, V [Roorkee Univ. (India). Dept. of Physics

    1977-08-01

    The susceptibility of a bond disordered Ising model is calculated by configurationally averaging an Ornstein-Zernike type of equation for the two spin correlation function. The equation for the correlation function is derived using a diagrammatic method due to Englert. The averaging is performed using bond CPA. The magnetization is also calculated by averaging in a similar manner a linearised molecular field equation.

  5. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  6. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based landslide susceptibility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, Giovanna; Formetta, Giuseppe; Versace, Pasquale

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. This paper presents a package of GIS based models for landslide susceptibility analysis. It was integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model using the Object Modeling System (OMS) modeling framework. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices (GOF) by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system offers the possibility to investigate and fairly compare the quality and the robustness of models and models parameters, according a procedure that includes: i) model parameters estimation by optimizing each of the GOF index separately, ii) models evaluation in the ROC plane by using each of the optimal parameter set, and iii) GOF robustness evaluation by assessing their sensitivity to the input parameter variation. This procedure was repeated for all three models. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, Average Index (AI) optimization coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. This research was funded by PON Project No. 01_01503 "Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk

  7. Modelling methods for co-fired pulverised fuel furnaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L. Ma; M. Gharebaghi; R. Porter; M. Pourkashanian; J.M. Jones; A. Williams [University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom). Energy and Resources Research Institute

    2009-12-15

    Co-firing of biomass and coal can be beneficial in reducing the carbon footprint of energy production. Accurate modelling of co-fired furnaces is essential to discover potential problems that may occur during biomass firing and to mitigate potential negative effects of biomass fuels, including lower efficiency due to lower burnout and NOx formation issues. Existing coal combustion models should be modified to increase reliability of predictions for biomass, including factors such as increased drag due to non-spherical particle sizes and accounting for organic compounds and the effects they have on NOx emission. Detailed biomass co-firing models have been developed and tested for a range of biomass fuels and show promising results. 32 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Application of Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho Vieira, Bianca; Martins, Tiago D.

    2017-04-01

    Shallow landslides and floods are the processes responsible for most material and environmental damages in Brazil. In the last decades, some landslides events induce a high number of deaths (e.g. Over 1000 deaths in one event) and incalculable social and economic losses. Therefore, the prediction of those processes is considered an important tool for land use planning tools. Among different methods the physically based landslide susceptibility models having been widely used in many countries, but in Brazil it is still incipient when compared to other ones, like statistical tools and frequency analyses. Thus, the main objective of this research was to assess the application of some Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil, identifying their main results, the efficiency of susceptibility mapping, parameters used and limitations of the tropical humid environment. In order to achieve that, it was evaluated SHALSTAB, SINMAP and TRIGRS models in some studies in Brazil along with the Geotechnical values, scales, DEM grid resolution and the results based on the analysis of the agreement between predicted susceptibility and the landslide scar's map. Most of the studies in Brazil applied SHALSTAB, SINMAP and to a lesser extent the TRIGRS model. The majority researches are concentrated in the Serra do Mar mountain range, that is a system of escarpments and rugged mountains that extends more than 1,500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, and regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements. Most part of these studies used conventional topographic maps with scales ranging from 1:2000 to 1:50000 and DEM-grid resolution between 2 and 20m. Regarding the Geotechnical and hydrological values, a few studies use field collected data which could produce more efficient results, as indicated by international literature. Therefore, even though they have enormous potential in the susceptibility mapping, even for comparison

  9. Fire Modeling Institute: FY2012 Annual Report: Bridging scientists and managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Innes

    2013-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) brings the best available fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear in fire-related management issues. Although located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program of the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, FMI is a national and international resource, serving fire...

  10. GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE WITH APPLICATIONS IN SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTIOUS-SUSCEPTIBLE MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilea, M; Turnea, M; Arotăriţei, D; Rotariu, Mariana; Popescu, Marilena

    2015-01-01

    Practical significance of understanding the dynamics and evolution of infectious diseases increases continuously in contemporary world. The mathematical study of the dynamics of infectious diseases has a long history. By incorporating statistical methods and computer-based simulations in dynamic epidemiological models, it could be possible for modeling methods and theoretical analyses to be more realistic and reliable, allowing a more detailed understanding of the rules governing epidemic spreading. To provide the basis for a disease transmission, the population of a region is often divided into various compartments, and the model governing their relation is called the compartmental model. To present all of the information available, a graphical user interface provides icons and visual indicators. The graphical interface shown in this paper is performed using the MATLAB software ver. 7.6.0. MATLAB software offers a wide range of techniques by which data can be displayed graphically. The process of data viewing involves a series of operations. To achieve it, I had to make three separate files, one for defining the mathematical model and two for the interface itself. Considering a fixed population, it is observed that the number of susceptible individuals diminishes along with an increase in the number of infectious individuals so that in about ten days the number of individuals infected and susceptible, respectively, has the same value. If the epidemic is not controlled, it will continue for an indefinite period of time. By changing the global parameters specific of the SIS model, a more rapid increase of infectious individuals is noted. Using the graphical user interface shown in this paper helps achieving a much easier interaction with the computer, simplifying the structure of complex instructions by using icons and menus, and, in particular, programs and files are much easier to organize. Some numerical simulations have been presented to illustrate theoretical

  11. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  12. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for viral marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Siti Suhaila; Akil, Ku Azlina Ku; Chulan, Majdah; Sharif, Noorzila

    2017-11-01

    Viral marketing is a marketing strategy utilizes social media to spread information about a product or services provided. It is the most powerful way to share information in a short amount of time. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic of viral marketing within a time duration in the point of view of mathematics. This study used the epidemiological model known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). The model consists of a system of three differential equations with three state variables namely susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). It considers a case of SIR model with demography. Numerical experiments have been performed. The results show that viral marketing reaches its peak within two days. The online messages shared will become higher if the initial number of the infected individual has been increased.

  13. Phase transition of the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on time-varying configuration model networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Onge, Guillaume; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Laurence, Edward; Murphy, Charles; Dubé, Louis J.

    2018-02-01

    We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework on a given degree distribution, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary state using the rewiring rate to explore the whole range of the time variation of the structure relative to that of the SIS process. This analysis is suitable for the characterization of the phase transition and leads to three main contributions: (1) We obtain a self-consistent expression for the absorbing-state threshold, able to capture both collective and hub activation. (2) We recover the predictions of a number of existing approaches as limiting cases of our analysis, providing thereby a unifying point of view for the SIS dynamics on random networks. (3) We obtain bounds for the critical exponents of a number of quantities in the stationary state. This allows us to reinterpret the concept of hub-dominated phase transition. Within our framework, it appears as a heterogeneous critical phenomenon: observables for different degree classes have a different scaling with the infection rate. This phenomenon is followed by the successive activation of the degree classes beyond the epidemic threshold.

  14. [Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

    2012-05-01

    Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

  15. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and potential application to fire and fuels management for the Savannah River Site.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan

    2011-12-20

    This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.

  16. Machine learning modelling for predicting soil liquefaction susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Samui

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study describes two machine learning techniques applied to predict liquefaction susceptibility of soil based on the standard penetration test (SPT data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The first machine learning technique which uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN based on multi-layer perceptions (MLP that are trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm. The second machine learning technique uses the Support Vector machine (SVM that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses classification technique. ANN and SVM have been developed to predict liquefaction susceptibility using corrected SPT [(N160] and cyclic stress ratio (CSR. Further, an attempt has been made to simplify the models, requiring only the two parameters [(N160 and peck ground acceleration (amax/g], for the prediction of liquefaction susceptibility. The developed ANN and SVM models have also been applied to different case histories available globally. The paper also highlights the capability of the SVM over the ANN models.

  17. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    OpenAIRE

    F. Li; S. Levis; D. S. Ward

    2013-01-01

    Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire–climate–vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012a, b), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications....

  18. Systems and models of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Kielak

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents fire blight prediction models and systems, developed in Europe (system Billing - versions: BOS, BRS, BIS95 and originated from this system: Firescreen, FEUERBRA and ANLAFBRA and in United States (Californian system, model Maryblyt and system Cougarblight. Use of above models and systems in various climatic-geographic conditions and comparison of obtained prognostic data to real fire blight occurrence is reviewed. The newest trends in research on improvement of prognostic analyses parameters with their adjustment to particular conditions and consideration of infection source occurrence are also presented.

  19. Ising model on tangled chain - 2: Magnetization and susceptibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejdani, R.

    1993-05-01

    In the preceding paper we have considered an Ising model defined on tangled chain to study the behaviour of the free energy and entropy, particularly in the zero-field and zero-temperature limit. In this paper, following the main line and basing on some results of the previous work, we shall study in the ''language'' of state configurations the behaviour of the magnetization and the susceptibility for different conditions of the model, to understand better the competition between the ferromagnetic bonds along the chain and the antiferromagnetic additional bonds across the chain. Particularly interesting is the behaviour of the susceptibility in the zero-field and zero-temperature limit. Exact solutions for the magnetization and susceptibility, generated by analytical calculations and iterative algorithms, are described. The additional bonds, introduced as a form of perfectly disorder, indicate a particular effect on the spin correlation. We found that the condition J=-J' between the ferromagnetic interaction J along the chain and the antiferromagnetic interaction J' across the chain is somewhat as a ''transition-region'' condition for this behaviour. (author). 16 refs, 14 figs

  20. Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

  1. Numerical modeling of the effects of fire-induced convection and fire-atmosphere interactions on wildfire spread and fire plume dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ruiyu

    It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a

  2. Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton

    2009-01-01

    Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...

  3. 75 FR 5355 - Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-02

    ..., Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment AGENCY... 1019195), Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment... exists in both the general fire protection and the nuclear power plant (NPP) fire protection communities...

  4. The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.; Westphal, D.; Richardson, K.; Christopher, S.; Schmidt, C.; Theisen, M.; Eck, T.; Reid, E. A.

    2001-12-01

    The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project was initiated by NASA, the US Navy and NOAA to monitor biomass burning and burning emissions on a global scale. The idea behind the mission is to integrate remote sensing data with global and regional transport models in real time for the purpose of providing the scientific community with smoke and fire products for planning and research purposes. FLAMBE is currently utilizing real time satellite data from GOES satellites, fire products based on the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) are generated for the Western Hemisphere every 30 minutes with only a 90 minute processing delay. We are currently collaborating with other investigators to gain global coverage. Once generated, the fire products are used to input smoke fluxes into the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, where advection forecasts are performed for up to 6 days. Subsequent radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate top of atmosphere and surface radiative forcing as well as surface layer visibility. Near real time validation is performed using field data collected by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometers. In this paper we fully describe the FLAMBE project and data availability. Preliminary result from the previous year will also be presented, with an emphasis on the development of algorithms to determine smoke emission fluxes from individual fire products. Comparisons to AERONET Sun photometer data will be made.

  5. Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

    2006-01-01

    Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes...

  6. A Susceptible Mouse Model for Zika Virus Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart D Dowall

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is a mosquito-borne pathogen which has recently spread beyond Africa and into Pacific and South American regions. Despite first being detected in 1947, very little information is known about the virus, and its spread has been associated with increases in Guillain-Barre syndrome and microcephaly. There are currently no known vaccines or antivirals against ZIKV infection. Progress in assessing interventions will require the development of animal models to test efficacies; however, there are only limited reports on in vivo studies. The only susceptible murine models have involved intracerebral inoculations or juvenile animals, which do not replicate natural infection. Our report has studied the effect of ZIKV infection in type-I interferon receptor deficient (A129 mice and the parent strain (129Sv/Ev after subcutaneous challenge in the lower leg to mimic a mosquito bite. A129 mice developed severe symptoms with widespread viral RNA detection in the blood, brain, spleen, liver and ovaries. Histological changes were also striking in these animals. 129Sv/Ev mice developed no clinical symptoms or histological changes, despite viral RNA being detectable in the blood, spleen and ovaries, albeit at lower levels than those seen in A129 mice. Our results identify A129 mice as being highly susceptible to ZIKV and thus A129 mice represent a suitable, and urgently required, small animal model for the testing of vaccines and antivirals.

  7. The effects of wildfire on mortality and resources for an arboreal marsupial: resilience to fire events but susceptibility to fire regime change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological

  8. The Effects of Wildfire on Mortality and Resources for an Arboreal Marsupial: Resilience to Fire Events but Susceptibility to Fire Regime Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Sam C.; Knight, Emma J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Lindenmayer, David B.

    2011-01-01

    Background Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. Methodology/Principal Findings We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. Conclusions/Significance Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous

  9. Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

    2016-01-01

    Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

  10. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfes in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cozzani, V.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in

  11. Modeling of Ceiling Fire Spread and Thermal Radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-10-01

    under a PMMA ceiling and flame lengths under an inert ceiling are found to be in reasonable agreement with full-scale behavior. Although fire spread...5 3 Flame Lengths under Full-Scale Ceilings 12 4 Correlation of Flame Length under Inert Ceilings 16 5 Correlation of Flame Length under No 234 Model...Ceilings 17 6 Correlation of Flame Length under No B8811 Model Ceilings 18 7 Correlation of Flame Length under No. 223 Model Ceilings 19 8

  12. A Hybrid Physical and Maximum-Entropy Landslide Susceptibility Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry Davis

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The clear need for accurate landslide susceptibility mapping has led to multiple approaches. Physical models are easily interpreted and have high predictive capabilities but rely on spatially explicit and accurate parameterization, which is commonly not possible. Statistical methods can include other factors influencing slope stability such as distance to roads, but rely on good landslide inventories. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt model has been widely and successfully used in species distribution mapping, because data on absence are often uncertain. Similarly, knowledge about the absence of landslides is often limited due to mapping scale or methodology. In this paper a hybrid approach is described that combines the physically-based landslide susceptibility model “Stability INdex MAPping” (SINMAP with MaxEnt. This method is tested in a coastal watershed in Pacifica, CA, USA, with a well-documented landslide history including 3 inventories of 154 scars on 1941 imagery, 142 in 1975, and 253 in 1983. Results indicate that SINMAP alone overestimated susceptibility due to insufficient data on root cohesion. Models were compared using SINMAP stability index (SI or slope alone, and SI or slope in combination with other environmental factors: curvature, a 50-m trail buffer, vegetation, and geology. For 1941 and 1975, using slope alone was similar to using SI alone; however in 1983 SI alone creates an Areas Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of 0.785, compared with 0.749 for slope alone. In maximum-entropy models created using all environmental factors, the stability index (SI from SINMAP represented the greatest contributions in all three years (1941: 48.1%; 1975: 35.3; and 1983: 48%, with AUC of 0.795, 0822, and 0.859, respectively; however; using slope instead of SI created similar overall AUC values, likely due to the combined effect with plan curvature indicating focused hydrologic inputs and vegetation identifying the effect of root cohesion

  13. Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

    2012-01-01

    Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

  14. Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

    2014-05-01

    Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the

  15. Laboratory modeling of aspects of large fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrier, G. F.; Fendell, F. E.; Fleeter, R. D.; Gat, N.; Cohen, L. M.

    1984-04-01

    The design, construction, and use of a laboratory-scale combustion tunnel for simulating aspects of large-scale free-burning fires are described. The facility consists of an enclosed, rectangular-cross section (1.12 m wide x 1.27 m high) test section of about 5.6 m in length, fitted with large sidewall windows for viewing. A long upwind section permits smoothing (by screens and honeycombs) of a forced-convective flow, generated by a fan and adjustable in wind speed (up to a maximum speed of about 20 m/s prior to smoothing). Special provision is made for unconstrained ascent of a strongly buoyant plume, the duct over the test section being about 7 m in height. Also, a translatable test-section ceiling can be used to prevent jet-type spreading into the duct of the impressed flow; that is, the wind arriving at a site (say) half-way along the test section can be made (by ceiling movement) approximately the same as that at the leading edge of the test section with a fully open duct (fully retracted ceiling). Of particular interest here are the rate and structure of wind-aided flame spread streamwise along a uniform matrix of vertically oriented small fuel elements (such as toothpicks or coffee-strirrers), implanted in clay stratum on the test-section floor; this experiment is motivated by flame spread across strewn debris, such as may be anticipated in an urban environment after severe blast damage.

  16. New Approach in Modelling Indonesian Peat Fire Emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Saharjo, B.; Yokelson, R. J.; Stockwell, C.; Vetrita, Y.; Zhang, X.; Hagen, S. C.; Nurhayati, A. D.; Graham, L.

    2017-12-01

    Peat fires are a serious problem for Indonesia, producing devastating environmental effects and making the country the 3rd largest emitter of CO2. Extensive fires ravaged vast areas of peatlands in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua during the pronounced El-Nino of 2015, causing international concern when the resultant haze blanketed Indonesia and neighboring countries, severely impacting the health of millions of people. Our recent unprecedented in-situ studies of aerosol and gas emissions from 35 peat fires of varying depths near Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan have documented the range and variability of emissions from these major fires. We strongly suggest revisions to previously recommended IPPC's emission factors (EFs) from peat fires, notably: CO2 (-8%), CH4 (-55%), NH3 (-86%), and CO (+39%). Our findings clearly showed that Indonesian carbon equivalent measurements (100 years) might have been 19% less than what current IPCC emission factors indicate. The results also demonstrate the toxic air quality in the area with HCN, which is almost only emitted by biomass burning, accounting for 0.28% and the carcinogenic compound formaldehyde 0.04% of emissions. However, considerable variation in emissions may exist between peat fires of different Indonesian peat formations, illustrating the need for additional regional field emissions measurements for parameterizing peatland emissions models for all of Indonesia's major peatland areas. Through the continuous mutual research collaboration between the Indonesian and USA scientists, we will implement our standardized field-based analyses of fuels, hydrology, peat burning characteristics and fire emissions to characterize the three major Indonesian peatland formations across four study provinces (Central Kalimantan, Riau, Jambi and West Papua). We will provide spatial and temporal drivers of the modeled emissions and validate them at a national level using biomass burning emissions estimations derived from Visible

  17. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  18. BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2009-01-01

    This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

  19. Post Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis Using a Fault Tree Logic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yim, Hyun Tae; Park, Jun Hyun

    2005-01-01

    Every nuclear power plant should have its own fire hazard analysis including the fire safe shutdown analysis. A safe shutdown (SSD) analysis is performed to demonstrate the capability of the plant to safely shut down for a fire in any given area. The basic assumption is that there will be fire damage to all cables and equipment located within a common fire area. When evaluating the SSD capabilities of the plant, based on a review of the systems, equipment and cables within each fire area, it should be determined which shutdown paths are either unaffected or least impacted by a postulated fire within the fire area. Instead of seeking a success path for safe shutdown given all cables and equipment damaged by a fire, there can be an alternative approach to determine the SSD capability: fault tree analysis. This paper introduces the methodology for fire SSD analysis using a fault tree logic model

  20. EARTH, WIND AND FIRE: BUILDING METEOROLOGICALLY-SENSITIVE BIOGENIC AND WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR QUALITY MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...

  1. Reactivating dynamics for the susceptible-infected-susceptible model: a simple method to simulate the absorbing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo-Filho, A.; Alves, G. A.; Costa Filho, R. N.; Alves, T. F. A.

    2018-04-01

    We investigated the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a square lattice in the presence of a conjugated field based on recently proposed reactivating dynamics. Reactivating dynamics consists of reactivating the infection by adding one infected site, chosen randomly when the infection dies out, avoiding the dynamics being trapped in the absorbing state. We show that the reactivating dynamics can be interpreted as the usual dynamics performed in the presence of an effective conjugated field, named the reactivating field. The reactivating field scales as the inverse of the lattice number of vertices n, which vanishes at the thermodynamic limit and does not affect any scaling properties including ones related to the conjugated field.

  2. The Morris-Lecar neuron model embeds a leaky integrate-and-fire model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Greenwood, Priscilla

    2013-01-01

    We showthat the stochastic Morris–Lecar neuron, in a neighborhood of its stable point, can be approximated by a two-dimensional Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) modulation of a constant circular motion. The associated radial OU process is an example of a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model prior to firing...

  3. QCD topological susceptibility from the nonlocal chiral quark model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Seung-Il; Kao, Chung-Wen

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) topological susceptibility χ by using the semi-bosonized nonlocal chiral-quark model (SB-NLχQM) for the leading large- N c contributions. This model is based on the liquid-instanton QCD-vacuum configuration, in which SU(3) flavor symmetry is explicitly broken by the finite current-quark mass ( m u,d, m s) ≈ (5, 135) MeV. To compute χ, we derive the local topological charge-density operator Q t( x) from the effective action of SB-NLχQM. We verify that the derived expression for χ in our model satisfies the Witten- Veneziano (WV) and the Leutwyler-Smilga (LS) formulae, and the Crewther theorem in the chiral limit by construction. Once the average instanton size and the inter-instanton distance are fixed with ρ¯ = 1/3 fm and R¯ = 1 fm, respectively, all the other parameters are determined self-consistently within the model. We obtain χ = (167.67MeV)4, which is comparable with the empirical value χ = (175±5MeV)4 whereas it turns out that χ QL = (194.30MeV)4 in the quenched limit. Thus, we conclude that the value of χ will be reduced around 10 20% by the dynamical-quark contribution.

  4. Discrete time Markov chains (DTMC) susceptible infected susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with two pathogens in two patches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lismawati, Eka; Respatiwulan; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    The SIS epidemic model describes the pattern of disease spread with characteristics that recovered individuals can be infected more than once. The number of susceptible and infected individuals every time follows the discrete time Markov process. It can be represented by the discrete time Markov chains (DTMC) SIS. The DTMC SIS epidemic model can be developed for two pathogens in two patches. The aims of this paper are to reconstruct and to apply the DTMC SIS epidemic model with two pathogens in two patches. The model was presented as transition probabilities. The application of the model obtain that the number of susceptible individuals decreases while the number of infected individuals increases for each pathogen in each patch.

  5. First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM 4.0, user's guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Robert E. Keane; James K. Brown

    1997-01-01

    A First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was developed to predict the direct consequences of prescribed fire and wildfire. FOFEM computes duff and woody fuel consumption, smoke production, and fire-caused tree mortality for most forest and rangeland types in the United States. The model is available as a computer program for PC or Data General computer.

  6. Numerical Modelling of Fire-Atmosphere Interactions and the 2003 Canberra Bushfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, C.; Sturman, A.; Zawar-Reza, P.

    2010-12-01

    It is well known that the behaviour of a wildland fire is strongly associated with the conditions of its surrounding atmosphere. However, the two-way interactions between fire behaviour and the atmospheric conditions are not well understood. A numerical model is used to simulate wildland fires so that the nature of these fire-atmosphere interactions, and how they might affect fire behaviour, can be further investigated. The 2003 Canberra bushfires are used as a case study due to their highly destructive and unusual behaviour. On the 18th January 2003, these fires spread to the urban suburbs of Canberra, resulting in the loss of four lives and the destruction of over 500 homes. Fire-atmosphere interactions are believed to have played an important role in making these fires so destructive. WRF-Fire is used to perform real data simulations of the 2003 Canberra bushfires. WRF-Fire is a coupled fire-atmosphere model, which combines a semi-empirical fire spread model with an atmospheric model, allowing it to directly simulate the two-way interactions between a fire and its surrounding atmosphere. These simulations show the impact of the presence of a fire on conditions within the atmospheric boundary layer. This modification of the atmosphere, resulting from the injection of heat and moisture released by the fire, appears to have a direct feedback onto the overall fire behaviour. The bushfire simulations presented in this paper provide important scientific insights into the nature of fire-atmosphere interactions for a real situation. It is expected that they will also help fire managers in Australia to better understand why the 2003 Canberra bushfires were so destructive, as well as to gain improved insight into bushfire behaviour in general.

  7. Theory of the one-dimensional forest-fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paczuski, M.; Bak, P.

    1993-01-01

    Turbulent cascade processes are studied in terms of a one-dimensional forest-fire model. A hier- archy of steady-state equations for the forests and the holes between them is constructed and solved within a mean-field closure scheme. The exact hole distribution function is found to be N H (s)=4N/[s(s+1)(s+2)], where N is the number of forests

  8. Fires involving radioactive materials : transference model; operative recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, C.E.; Puntarulo, L.J.; Canibano, J.A.

    1988-01-01

    In all aspects related to the nuclear activity, the occurrence of an explosion, fire or burst type accident, with or without victims, is directly related to the characteristics of the site. The present work analyses the different parameters involved, describing a transference model and recommendations for evaluation and control of the radiological risk for firemen. Special emphasis is placed on the measurement of the variables existing in this kind of operations

  9. Understanding global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of vegetation and fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Ian D. Davies; Michael D. Flannigan; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; T. Scott Rupp

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a major disturbance in most ecosystems worldwide (Crutzen and Goldammer 1993). The interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans, often referred to as the fire regime (Agee 1993; Clark 1993; Swetnam and Baisan 1996; Swetnam 1997), has major effects on dominant vegetation, ecosystem carbon budget, and biodiversity (Gardner et aL...

  10. Modeling impacts of fire severity on successional trajectories and future fire behavior in Alaskan boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jill F. Johnstone; T. Scott Rupp; Mark Olson; David. Verbyla

    2011-01-01

    Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous...

  11. Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bastos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion.

    The main goals of the present work are (i to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively.

    The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998–2009, at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to

  12. Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, A.; Gouveia, C. M.; Dacamara, C. C.; Trigo, R. M.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion. The main goals of the present work are (i) to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii) to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii) to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively. The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998-2009), at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to recover slower than transitional woodland

  13. Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

  14. Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

  15. Identification of fire modeling issues based on an analysis of real events from the OECD FIRE database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermann, Dominik [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Brugg (Switzerland)

    2017-03-15

    Precursor analysis is widely used in the nuclear industry to judge the significance of events relevant to safety. However, in case of events that may damage equipment through effects that are not ordinary functional dependencies, the analysis may not always fully appreciate the potential for further evolution of the event. For fires, which are one class of such events, this paper discusses modelling challenges that need to be overcome when performing a probabilistic precursor analysis. The events used to analyze are selected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Fire Incidents Records Exchange (FIRE) Database.

  16. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landucci, Gabriele [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Chimica Industriale e Scienza dei Materiali, Universita di Pisa, via Diotisalvi n.2, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Molag, Menso [Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek TNO, Princetonlaan 6, 3584 CB Utrecht (Netherlands); Cozzani, Valerio, E-mail: valerio.cozzani@unibo.it [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, Alma Mater Studiorum - Universita di Bologna, Via Terracini 28 - 40131 Bologna (Italy)

    2009-12-15

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  17. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Cozzani, Valerio

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  18. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  19. Comparison of the landslide susceptibility models in Taipei Water Source Domain, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, C. Y.; Yeh, Y. C.; Chou, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    Taipei Water Source Domain, locating at the southeast of Taipei Metropolis, is the main source of water resource in this region. Recently, the downstream turbidity often soared significantly during the typhoon period because of the upstream landslides. The landslide susceptibilities should be analysed to assess the influence zones caused by different rainfall events, and to ensure the abilities of this domain to serve enough and quality water resource. Generally, the landslide susceptibility models can be established based on either a long-term landslide inventory or a specified landslide event. Sometimes, there is no long-term landslide inventory in some areas. Thus, the event-based landslide susceptibility models are established widely. However, the inventory-based and event-based landslide susceptibility models may result in dissimilar susceptibility maps in the same area. So the purposes of this study were to compare the landslide susceptibility maps derived from the inventory-based and event-based models, and to interpret how to select a representative event to be included in the susceptibility model. The landslide inventory from Typhoon Tim in July, 1994 and Typhoon Soudelor in August, 2015 was collected, and used to establish the inventory-based landslide susceptibility model. The landslides caused by Typhoon Nari and rainfall data were used to establish the event-based model. The results indicated the high susceptibility slope-units were located at middle upstream Nan-Shih Stream basin.

  20. Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Using the Data Mining Models Artificial Neural Network and Boosted Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Joo Oh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present some potential applications of sophisticated data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN and boosted tree (BT, for landslide susceptibility modeling in the Yongin area, Korea. Initially, landslide inventory was detected from visual interpretation using digital aerial photographic maps with a high resolution of 50 cm taken before and after the occurrence of landslides. The debris flows were randomly divided into two groups: training and validation sets with a 50:50 proportion. Additionally, 18 environmental factors related to landslide occurrence were derived from the topography, soil, and forest maps. Subsequently, the data mining techniques were applied to identify the influence of environmental factors on landslide occurrence of the training set and assess landslide susceptibility. Finally, the landslide susceptibility indexes from ANN and BT were compared with a validation set using a receiver operating characteristics curve. The slope gradient, topographic wetness index, and timber age appear to be important factors in landslide occurrence from both models. The validation result of ANN and BT showed 82.25% and 90.79%, which had reasonably good performance. The study shows the benefit of selecting optimal data mining techniques in landslide susceptibility modeling. This approach could be used as a guideline for choosing environmental factors on landslide occurrence and add influencing factors into landslide monitoring systems. Furthermore, this method can rank landslide susceptibility in urban areas, thus providing helpful information when selecting a landslide monitoring site and planning land-use.

  1. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    R Barbero; J T Abatzoglou; E A Steel

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ¡­60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric...

  2. Challenges of assessing fire and burn severity using field measures, remote sensing and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penelope Morgan; Robert E. Keane; Gregory K. Dillon; Theresa B. Jain; Andrew T. Hudak; Eva C. Karau; Pamela G. Sikkink; Zachery A. Holden; Eva K. Strand

    2014-01-01

    Comprehensive assessment of ecological change after fires have burned forests and rangelands is important if we are to understand, predict and measure fire effects. We highlight the challenges in effective assessment of fire and burn severity in the field and using both remote sensing and simulation models. We draw on diverse recent research for guidance on assessing...

  3. Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Robert E. Keane; Brigitte Dorner; Joseph Fall

    2007-01-01

    We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of...

  4. Developments in modelling of thermal radiation from pool and jet fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, H.

    2016-01-01

    In the past decades, the standard approach in the modelling of consequences of pool and jet fires would be to describe these fires as tilted cylindrical shaped radiating flame surfaces, having a specific SEP (Surface Emissive Power). Some fine tuning on pool fires has been done by Rew and Hulbert in

  5. Modelling of Fire in an Open Car Park

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marton, Timea; Dederichs, Anne Simone; Giuliani, Luisa

    2015-01-01

    Steel car parks exhibit high vulnerability to fire, as a consequence of the degradation of the steel mechanical properties at high temperatures and of the combustible type and amount. Real fire accidents in open car parks demonstrated a much faster and extended fire spread than predictions......, assuming that a fire spread rate of 12 min and consider at most 3-4 vehicles on fire at the same time. Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) is applied in this current paper to study fire spread between cars. The outcomes of the investigations show that the fire spread is strongly influenced by the geometrical...... layout and that the distance between cars plays a determinant role on the fire spread rate and ignition of adjacent cars. In particular it was found that the fire spread can be faster than 12 minutes in the case of the cars parked 40 and 60 cm from each other....

  6. Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

    2003-01-01

    The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

  7. Numerical Field Model Simulation of Full Scale Fire Tests in a Closed Spherical/Cylindrical Vessel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-12-01

    the behavior of an actual fire on board a ship. The computer model will be verified by the experimental data obtained in Fire-l. It is important to... behavior in simulations where convection is important. The upwind differencing scheme takes into account the unsymmetrical phenomenon of convection by using...TANK CELL ON THE NORTH SIDE) FOR A * * PARTICULAR FIRE CELL * * COSUMS (I,J) = THE ARRAY TO STORE THE SIMILIAR VALUE FOR THE FIRE * * CELL TO THE SOUTH

  8. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trika Pitana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  9. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie Yong [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)]. E-mail: yxie@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Xu Jianxue [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China); Jiang Jun [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)

    2006-12-15

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables.

  10. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Jiang Jun

    2006-01-01

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables

  11. Focus on the studies in support of fire safety analysis. IRSN modelling approach for nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espargilliere, Julien; Meyrand, Raphael; Vinot, Thierry [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2015-12-15

    For a fire safety analysis, in order to comply with nuclear safety goals, a nuclear fuel facility operator has to define the elements important for safety to be maintained, even in the case of a fire. One of the key points of this fire analysis is the assessment of possible fire scenarios in the facility. This paper presents the IRSN method applied to a case study to assess fire scenarios which have the most harmful effects on safety targets. The layout consists in a central room (fire cell) containing three glove boxes with radioactive material and three electrical cabinets. This room is linked to two connecting compartments (the fire cell and these two compartments define the containment cell) and then to two corridors. Each room is equipped with a mechanical ventilation system, and a pressure cascade is established from the corridors to the central room. A fire scenario was studied with fire ignition occurring in an electrical cabinet. This scenario has a set of safety goals (prevention of fire cell and containment device failure, propagation of the fire). This case study was conducted with the IRSN code SYLVIA based on two zones modelling. Safety goals were associated with key parameters and performance criteria to be fulfilled. Modelling assumptions were defined in order to maximize physical effects of the fire. Sensitivity studies were also conducted on key parameters such as oxygen limitation, equivalent-fuel definition. Eventually, a critical analysis of the code models was carried out.

  12. The Rothermel surface fire spread model and associated developments: A comprehensive explanation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2018-01-01

    The Rothermel surface fire spread model, with some adjustments by Frank A. Albini in 1976, has been used in fire and fuels management systems since 1972. It is generally used with other models including fireline intensity and flame length. Fuel models are often used to define fuel input parameters. Dynamic fuel models use equations for live fuel curing. Models have...

  13. acme: The Amendable Coal-Fire Modeling Exercise. A C++ Class Library for the Numerical Simulation of Coal-Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuttke, Manfred W.

    2017-04-01

    At LIAG, we use numerical models to develop and enhance understanding of coupled transport processes and to predict the dynamics of the system under consideration. Topics include geothermal heat utilization, subrosion processes, and spontaneous underground coal fires. Although the details make it inconvenient if not impossible to apply a single code implementation to all systems, their investigations go along similar paths: They all depend on the solution of coupled transport equations. We thus saw a need for a modular code system with open access for the various communities to maximize the shared synergistic effects. To this purpose we develop the oops! ( open object-oriented parallel solutions) - toolkit, a C++ class library for the numerical solution of mathematical models of coupled thermal, hydraulic and chemical processes. This is used to develop problem-specific libraries like acme( amendable coal-fire modeling exercise), a class library for the numerical simulation of coal-fires and applications like kobra (Kohlebrand, german for coal-fire), a numerical simulation code for standard coal-fire models. Basic principle of the oops!-code system is the provision of data types for the description of space and time dependent data fields, description of terms of partial differential equations (pde), their discretisation and solving methods. Coupling of different processes, described by their particular pde is modeled by an automatic timescale-ordered operator-splitting technique. acme is a derived coal-fire specific application library, depending on oops!. If specific functionalities of general interest are implemented and have been tested they will be assimilated into the main oops!-library. Interfaces to external pre- and post-processing tools are easily implemented. Thus a construction kit which can be arbitrarily amended is formed. With the kobra-application constructed with acme we study the processes and propagation of shallow coal seam fires in particular in

  14. A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

    1996-11-01

    Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing.

  15. Differential Susceptibility to the Environment: Are Developmental Models Compatible with the Evidence from Twin Studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Giudice, Marco

    2016-01-01

    According to models of differential susceptibility, the same neurobiological and temperamental traits that determine increased sensitivity to stress and adversity also confer enhanced responsivity to the positive aspects of the environment. Differential susceptibility models have expanded to include complex developmental processes in which genetic…

  16. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan S Schaffer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  18. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Evan S; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L F

    2013-10-01

    Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  19. Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment: Coordination of a study to improve smoke modeling for fire operations within the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, N. H. F.; Ottmar, R. D.; Brown, T. J.; Larkin, N. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is an integrative research effort to identify and collect critical measurements to improve operational wildland fire and smoke prediction systems. FASMEE has two active phases and one suggested phase. Phase 1 is the analysis and planning process to assess the current state of fire-plume-smoke modeling and to determine the critical measurements required to evaluate and improve these operational fire and smoke models. As the major deliverable for Phase 1, a study plan has been completed that describes the measurement needs, field campaigns, and command, safety and air space de-confliction plans necessary to complete the FASMEE project. Phase 2 is a set of field campaigns to collect data during 2019-2022. Future Improvements would be a set of analyses and model improvements based on the data collected within Phase 2 that is dependent on identifying future funding sources. In this presentation, we will review the FASMEE Study Plan and detailed measurements and conditions expected for the four to five proposed research burns. The recommended measurements during Phase 2 span the four interrelated disciplines of FASMEE: fuels and consumption, fire behavior and energy, plume dynamics and meteorology, and smoke emissions, chemistry, and transport. Fuel type, condition, and consumption during wildland fire relates to several fire impacts including radiative heating, which provides the energy that drives fire dynamics. Local-scale meteorology is an important factor which relates to atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, and transport. Plume dynamics provide the connection between fire behavior and far-field smoke dispersion, because it determines the vertical distribution of the emissions. Guided by the data needs and science questions generated during Phase 1, three wildland fire campaigns were selected. These included the western wildfire campaign (rapid deployment aimed at western wildfires supporting NOAA, NASA, and NSF

  20. COMPBRN III: a computer code for modeling compartment fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, V.; Siu, N.; Apostolakis, G.; Flanagan, G.F.

    1986-07-01

    The computer code COMPBRN III deterministically models the behavior of compartment fires. This code is an improvement of the original COMPBRN codes. It employs a different air entrainment model and numerical scheme to estimate properties of the ceiling hot gas layer model. Moreover, COMPBRN III incorporates a number of improvements in shape factor calculations and error checking, which distinguish it from the COMPBRN II code. This report presents the ceiling hot gas layer model employed by COMPBRN III as well as several other modifications. Information necessary to run COMPBRN III, including descriptions of required input and resulting output, are also presented. Simulation of experiments and a sample problem are included to demonstrate the usage of the code. 37 figs., 46 refs

  1. Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.

  2. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildfire Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  3. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildlife Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  4. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud

    2015-01-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  5. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  6. Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System Failure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nino Prieto, Omar Ariosto; Colmenares Guillen, Luis Enrique

    2013-09-01

    In this paper the Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System is presented. This architecture is a legacy of the Detection System for Real-Time Physical Variables which is undergoing a patent process in Mexico. The methodologies for this design are the Structured Analysis for Real Time (SA- RT) [8], and the software is carried out by LACATRE (Langage d'aide à la Conception d'Application multitâche Temps Réel) [9,10] Real Time formal language. The system failures model is analyzed and the proposal is based on the formal language for the design of critical systems and Risk Assessment; AltaRica. This formal architecture uses satellites as input sensors and it was adapted from the original model which is a design pattern for physical variation detection in Real Time. The original design, whose task is to monitor events such as natural disasters and health related applications, or actual sickness monitoring and prevention, as the Real Time Diabetes Monitoring System, among others. Some related work has been presented on the Mexican Space Agency (AEM) Creation and Consultation Forums (2010-2011), and throughout the International Mexican Aerospace Science and Technology Society (SOMECYTA) international congress held in San Luis Potosí, México (2012). This Architecture will allow a Real Time Fire Satellite Monitoring, which will reduce the damage and danger caused by fires which consumes the forests and tropical forests of Mexico. This new proposal, permits having a new system that impacts on disaster prevention, by combining national and international technologies and cooperation for the benefit of humankind.

  7. Construction and Quantification of the One Top model of the Fire Events PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Han, Sang Hoon

    2008-01-01

    KAERI constructed the one top model of the fire events PSA for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 by using the 'mapping technique'. The mapping technique was developed for the construction and quantification of external events PSA models with a one top model for an internal events PSA. With 'AIMS', the mapping technique can be implemented by the construction of mapping tables. The mapping tables include fire rooms, fire ignition frequency, related initiating events, fire transfer events, and the internal PSA basic events affected by a fire. The constructed one top fire PSA model is based on previously conducted fire PSA results for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4. In this paper, we introduce the construction procedure and quantification results of the one top model of the fire events PSA by using the mapping technique. As the one top model of the fire events PSA developed in this study is based on the previous study, we also introduce the previous fire PSA approach focused on quantification

  8. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    -Leal et al., 2006). Stolle and Lambin (2003) noted that flammable fuel depends on ... advantages over conventional fire detection and fire monitoring methods because ofits repetitive andconsistent coverage over large areas of land (Martin et ...

  9. Modeling elm growth and Dutch elm disease susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberto Santini; Luisa Ghelardini

    2012-01-01

    Elm susceptibility to Dutch elm disease (DED) displays strong seasonal variation. The period during which elms can become infected and express DED symptoms is generally restricted to several weeks after growth resumption in spring, although it can vary among species, provenances, and environmental conditions. The reason for this phenomenon is not understood, but the...

  10. Design of fire resistant concrete structures, using validated Fem models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erich, S.J.F.; Overbeek, van A.B.M.; Heijden, van der G.H.A.; Pel, L.; Huinink, H.P.; Vervuurt, A.H.J.M.; Schlangen, E.; Schlutter, de G.

    2008-01-01

    Fire safety of buildings and structures is an important issue, and has a great impact on human life and economy. One of the processes negatively affecting the strength of a concrete building or structure during fire is spalling. Many examples exists in which spalling of concrete during fire has

  11. Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; Daniel L. Schmoldt

    2000-01-01

    In 1996, a team of North American fire scientists and resource managers convened to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems and to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations - elicited with the Analytic Hierarchy Process - include numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and...

  12. What determines area burned in large landscapes? Insights from a decade of comparative landscape-fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Russ A. Parsons

    2015-01-01

    Understanding what determines area burned in large landscapes is critical for informing wildland fire management in fire-prone environments and for representing fire activity in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. For the past ten years, a group of landscape-fire modellers have been exploring the relative influence of key determinants of area burned in temperate and...

  13. Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard R. Parresol; Joe H. Scott; Anne Andreu; Susan Prichard; Laurie Kurth

    2012-01-01

    Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or...

  14. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

  15. Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Vacchiano

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995–2009 and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i winter forest fires, (ii winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter–early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %; lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90–0.95. Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation and winter (negative fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

  16. Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacchiano, Giorgio; Foderi, Cristiano; Berretti, Roberta; Marchi, Enrico; Motta, Renzo

    2018-03-01

    Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995-2009) and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i) winter forest fires, (ii) winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii) summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter-early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %); lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90-0.95). Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation) and winter (negative) fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

  17. Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively. Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8% with no very high susceptibility (0%. Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management.

  18. Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsengiyumva, Jean Baptiste; Luo, Geping; Nahayo, Lamek; Huang, Xiaotao; Cai, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively). Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8%) with no very high susceptibility (0%). Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management. PMID:29385096

  19. A fire suppression model for forested range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq herds of caribou

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald C. Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A fire suppression model was developed for forested winter range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq (formerly Kaminuriak herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus in north-central Canada. The model is a balance between total protection, as voiced by some aboriginal people, and a let-burn policy for natural fires advocated by some ecologists. Elements in the model were caribou ecology, lichen recovery after fire, burn history, community priorities for caribou hunting, and fire cycle lengths. The percent ratio of current productive caribou habitat to the goal for that habitat determines whether fire should be suppressed in a specific area. The goals for productive caribou habitat, defined as forests older than 50 years, were scaled by fire cycle length and community priority ranking. Thus, the model is an example of co-management: traditional knowledge combined with science in a joint forum, the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq Caribou Management Board.

  20. Measuring behaviours for escaping from house fires: use of latent variable models to summarise multiple behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploubidis, G B; Edwards, P; Kendrick, D

    2015-12-15

    This paper reports the development and testing of a construct measuring parental fire safety behaviours for planning escape from a house fire. Latent variable modelling of data on parental-reported fire safety behaviours and plans for escaping from a house fire and multivariable logistic regression to quantify the association between groups defined by the latent variable modelling and parental-report of having a plan for escaping from a house fire. Data comes from 1112 participants in a cluster randomised controlled trial set in children's centres in 4 study centres in the UK. A two class model provided the best fit to the data, combining responses to five fire safety planning behaviours. The first group ('more behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 86% of participants who were most likely to have a torch, be aware of how their smoke alarm sounds, to have external door and window keys accessible, and exits clear. The second group ('fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 14% of participants who were less likely to report these five behaviours. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants allocated to the 'more behaviours for escaping from a house fire group were 2.5 times more likely to report having an escape plan (OR 2.48; 95% CI 1.59-3.86) than those in the "fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire" group. Multiple fire safety behaviour questions can be combined into a single binary summary measure of fire safety behaviours for escaping from a house fire. Our findings will be useful to future studies wishing to use a single measure of fire safety planning behaviour as measures of outcome or exposure. NCT 01452191. Date of registration 13/10/2011.

  1. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

  2. Development of a Base Model for the New Fire PSA Training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kilyoo; Kang, Daeil; Kim, Wee Kyong; Do, Kyu Sik

    2013-01-01

    US NRC/EPRI issued a new fire PSA method represented by NUREG/CR 6850, and have been training many operators and inspectors to widely spread the new method. However, there is a limitation in time and efficiency for many foreigners, who generally have communication problem, to participate in the EPRI/NRC training to learn the new method. Since it is about time to introduce the new fire PSA method as a regulatory requirement for the fire protection in Korea, a simple and easy-understandable base model for the fire PSA training is required, and KAERI-KINS is jointly preparing the base model for the new fire PSA training. This paper describes how the base model is developed. Using an imaginary simple NPP, a base model of fire PSA following the new fire PSA method was developed in two ways from the internal PSA model. Since we have the base model and know the process of making the fire PSA model, the training for the new fire PSA method can be in detail performed in Korea

  3. EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR DESCRIBING FIRE BEHAVIOR IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Leonardo Alves White

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling forest fire behavior is an important task that can be used to assist in fire prevention and suppression operations. However, according to previous studies, the existing common worldwide fire behavior models used do not correctly estimate the fire behavior in Brazilian commercial hybrid eucalypt plantations. Therefore, this study aims to build new empirical models to predict the fire rate of spread, flame length and fuel consumption for such vegetation. To meet these objectives, 105 laboratory experimental burns were done, where the main fuel characteristics and weather variables that influence fire behavior were controlled and/or measured in each experiment. Dependent and independent variables were fitted through multiple regression analysis. The fire rate of spread proposed model is based on the wind speed, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead fuel moisture content (r2 = 0.86; the flame length model is based on the fuel bed depth, 1-h dead fuel moisture content and wind speed (r2 = 0.72; the fuel consumption proposed model has the 1-h dead fuel moisture, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead dry fuel load as independent variables (r2= 0.80. These models were used to develop a new fire behavior software, the “Eucalyptus Fire Safety System”.

  4. Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

    2015-04-01

    Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

  5. Burnthrough Modeling of Marine Grade Aluminum Alloy Structural Plates Exposed to Fire

    OpenAIRE

    Rippe, Christian M

    2015-01-01

    Current fire induced burnthrough models of aluminum typically rely solely on temperature thresholds and cannot accurately capture either the occurrence or the time to burnthrough. This research experimentally explores the fire induced burnthrough phenomenon of AA6061-T651 plates under multiple sized exposures and introduces a new burnthrough model based on the near melting creep rupture properties of the material. Fire experiments to induce burnthrough on aluminum plates were conducted us...

  6. Caliver: An R package for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2018-01-01

    The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package.

  7. Wildfire and drought dynamics destabilize carbon stores of fire-suppressed forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Mason Earles; Malcolm P. North; Matthew D. Hurteau

    2014-01-01

    Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many forests in the western United States, making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible...

  8. GIS Supported Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Regional Scale: An Expert-Based Fuzzy Weighting Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is landslide susceptibility assessment using fuzzy expert-based modeling. Factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, precipitation and seismicity were considered. Expert-based fuzzy weighting (EFW approach was used to combine these factors for landslide susceptibility mapping (Peloponnese, Greece. This method produced a landslide susceptibility map of the investigated area. The landslides under investigation have more or less same characteristics: lateral based and downslope shallow movement of soils or rocks. The validation of the model reveals, that predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences. Hence, the obtained landslide susceptibility map could be acceptable, for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation at regional scale.

  9. Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Forest fire effects on transpiration: process modeling of sapwood area reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaletz, Sean; Johnson, Edward

    2010-05-01

    Transpiration is a hydrological process that is strongly affected by forest fires. In crown fires, canopy fine fuels (foliage, buds, and small branches) combust, which kills individual trees and stops transpiration of the entire stand. In surface fires (intensities ≤ 2500 kW m-1), however, effects on transpiration are less predictable becuase heat transfer from the passing fireline can injure or kill fine roots, leaves, and sapwood; post-fire transpiration of forest stands is thus governed by fire effects on individual tree water budgets. Here, we consider fire effects on cross-sectional sapwood area. A two-dimensional model of transient bole heating is used to estimate radial isotherms for a range of fireline intensities typical of surface fires. Isotherms are then used to drive three processes by which heat may reduce sapwood area: 1) necrosis of living cells in contact with xylem conduits, which prevents repair of natural embolism; 2) relaxation of viscoelastic conduit wall polymers (cellulose, hemicelloluse, and lignin), which reduces cross-sectional conduit area; and 3) boiling of metastable water under tension, which causes conduit embolism. Results show that these processes operate on different time scales, suggesting that fire effects on transpiration vary with time since fire. The model can be linked with a three-dimensional physical fire spread model to predict size-dependent effects on individual trees, which can be used to estimate scaling of individual tree and stand-level transpiration.

  11. Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C

    2015-05-01

    Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.

  12. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

  13. Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

    2015-01-01

    Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905

  14. Effects of fire on major forest ecosystem processes: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhong

    2006-09-01

    Fire and fire ecology are among the best-studied topics in contemporary ecosystem ecology. The large body of existing literature on fire and fire ecology indicates an urgent need to synthesize the information on the pattern of fire effects on ecosystem composition, structure, and functions for application in fire and ecosystem management. Understanding fire effects and underlying principles are critical to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic wildfires and for proper use of fire as an effective management tool toward management goals. This overview is a synthesis of current knowledge on major effects of fire on fire-prone ecosystems, particularly those in the boreal and temperate regions of the North America. Four closely related ecosystem processes in vegetation dynamics, nutrient cycling, soil and belowground process and water relations were discussed with emphases on fire as the driving force. Clearly, fire can shape ecosystem composition, structure and functions by selecting fire adapted species and removing other susceptible species, releasing nutrients from the biomass and improving nutrient cycling, affecting soil properties through changing soil microbial activities and water relations, and creating heterogeneous mosaics, which in turn, can further influence fire behavior and ecological processes. Fire as a destructive force can rapidly consume large amount of biomass and cause negative impacts such as post-fire soil erosion and water runoff, and air pollution; however, as a constructive force fire is also responsible for maintaining the health and perpetuity of certain fire-dependent ecosystems. Considering the unique ecological roles of fire in mediating and regulating ecosystems, fire should be incorporated as an integral component of ecosystems and management. However, the effects of fire on an ecosystem depend on the fire regime, vegetation type, climate, physical environments, and the scale of time and space of assessment. More ecosystem

  15. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-BURN Subsystem, part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    1986-01-01

    Describes BURN Subsystem, Part 1, the operational fire behavior prediction subsystem of the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system. The manual covers operation of the computer program, assumptions of the mathematical models used in the calculations, and application of the predictions.

  16. Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

  17. Tunnel fire testing and modeling the Morgex North tunnel experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Borghetti, Fabio; Gandini, Paolo; Frassoldati, Alessio; Tavelli, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    This book aims to cast light on all aspects of tunnel fires, based on experimental activities and theoretical and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. In particular, the authors describe a transient full-scale fire test (~15 MW), explaining how they designed and performed the experimental activity inside the Morgex North tunnel in Italy. The entire organization of the experiment is described, from preliminary evaluations to the solutions found for management of operational difficulties and safety issues. This fire test allowed the collection of different measurements (temperature, air velocity, smoke composition, pollutant species) useful for validating and improving CFD codes and for testing the real behavior of the tunnel and its safety systems during a diesel oil fire with a significant heat release rate. Finally, the fire dynamics are compared with empirical correlations, CFD simulations, and literature measurements obtained in other similar tunnel fire tests. This book will be of interest to all ...

  18. Birth Order and Susceptibility to Peer Modeling Influences in Young Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, Gordon E.; Cheyne, James A.

    1976-01-01

    Susceptibility to peer modeling influences as a function of birth order was studied by examining the data of 390 boys from kindergarten through third grade who previously had participated in moral transgression experiments. (MS)

  19. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  20. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  1. Computational fluid dynamics in fire engineering theory, modelling and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Yuen, Kwok Kit

    2009-01-01

    Fire and combustion presents a significant engineering challenge to mechanical, civil and dedicated fire engineers, as well as specialists in the process and chemical, safety, buildings and structural fields. We are reminded of the tragic outcomes of 'untenable' fire disasters such as at King's Cross underground station or Switzerland's St Gotthard tunnel. In these and many other cases, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is at the forefront of active research into unravelling the probable causes of fires and helping to design structures and systems to ensure that they are less likely in the f

  2. Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castle, Drew Clayton

    Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed

  3. Modeling In-Stream Hydro-Geomorphic Processes After 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires can have significant impacts on hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Post-fire sediment transport and runoff generation vary by burn severity, precipitation, and vegetation. A need exists to understand these variable relationships and improve parameterization of post-fire hydro-geomorphic models. This research aims to model pre-fire geomorphic and hydrologic processes in Williams Canyon, a watershed burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado. We develop the KINematic Runoff and EROSion (KINEROS) model with Geographical Information System (GIS)-based information, including a Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil classification, precipitation, and soil burn severity for a local reference watershed that is unburned. We transfer these parameters to a channel reach in Williams Canyon (Williams Downstream) and adjust them toward post-fire conditions. We model runoff and sediment yield for several storms following the fire. Three post-fire terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) images (21 April 2013, 14 September 2013, and 16 September 2014) are used to estimate total erosion and deposition at the reach scale. We use the LiDAR-based information to calibrate the post-fire model. Preliminary modeling results indicate 3870-125 kg/ha of sediment in the Williams Downstream reach. The uncalibrated model overestimated (410% in the first year) and underestimated (87.2% in the second year) the erosion. Model calibration reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of sediment to 0.016% for the first year and 0.09% for the second year. The parameters calibrated for the Williams Downstream channel reach will be used to develop models for seven other channel reaches within the area burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire, where the performance can be evaluated with LiDAR estimates. Results of this research will enhance our understanding of wildfire disturbance on coupled hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Findings will also improve model parameterization that can

  4. Linen Fire as Biosorbent to Remove Heavy Metal Ions From Wastewater Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ildar G. Shaikhiev

    2014-01-01

    The possibility of using linen fires – lnopererabotk i waste as a sorption material for the extraction of heavy metal ions from wastewater modeling. It is shown that treatment with acid solutions linen fires a low concentration increases the surface area of linen fires and thus sorption capacity for heavy metal ions. The values of the maximum sorption capacity ions Fe (III), Co (II), Ni (II) and Zn (II) under static and dynamic conditions. IR spectroscopy...

  5. Low signal-to-noise FDEM in-phase data: Practical potential for magnetic susceptibility modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delefortrie, Samuël; Hanssens, Daan; De Smedt, Philippe

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we consider the use of land-based frequency-domain electromagnetics (FDEM) for magnetic susceptibility modelling. FDEM data comprises both out-of-phase and in-phase components, which can be related to the electrical conductivity and magnetic susceptibility of the subsurface. Though applying the FDEM method to obtain information on the subsurface conductivity is well established in various domains (e.g. through the low induction number approximation of subsurface apparent conductivity), the potential for susceptibility mapping is often overlooked. Especially given a subsurface with a low magnetite and maghemite content (e.g. most sedimentary environments), it is generally assumed that susceptibility is negligible. Nonetheless, the heterogeneity of the near surface and the impact of anthropogenic disturbances on the soil can cause sufficient variation in susceptibility for it to be detectable in a repeatable way. Unfortunately, it can be challenging to study the potential for susceptibility mapping due to systematic errors, an often poor low signal-to-noise ratio, and the intricacy of correlating in-phase responses with subsurface susceptibility and conductivity. Alongside use of an accurate forward model - accounting for out-of-phase/in-phase coupling - any attempt at relating the in-phase response with subsurface susceptibility requires overcoming instrument-specific limitations that burden the real-world application of FDEM susceptibility mapping. Firstly, the often erratic and drift-sensitive nature of in-phase responses calls for relative data levelling. In addition, a correction for absolute levelling offsets may be equally necessary: ancillary (subsurface) susceptibility data can be used to assess the importance of absolute in-phase calibration though hereby accurate in-situ data is required. To allow assessing the (importance of) in-phase calibration alongside the potential of FDEM data for susceptibility modelling, we consider an experimental

  6. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  7. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  8. The Feasibility of Multiscale Modeling of Tunnel Fires Using FDS 6

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Colella, Francesco; Rein, Guillermo

    2014-01-01

    The HVAC component of FDS 6 was used to divide a 1.2km tunnel into a 3D near fire area and a 1D area further away from the fire in order to investigate the feasibility of multiscale modeling of tunnel fires with this new feature in FDS. The two sub-models were coupled directly. The results were...... compared with reference works on multiscale modeling and the outcome is considered positive, with a deviation of less than 5% in magnitude of relevant parameters, yet with a significant reduction of the simulation runtime. As such, the multiscale method is deemed feasible for simulating tunnel fires in FDS......6. However, the simplifications that are made in this work require further investigation in order to take full advantage of the potential of this computational method. INTRODUCTION Multiscale modeling for tunnel flows and fires has previously been studied using RANS general purpose CFD software...

  9. An Improved Information Value Model Based on Gray Clustering for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianqian Ba

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslides, as geological hazards, cause significant casualties and economic losses. Therefore, it is necessary to identify areas prone to landslides for prevention work. This paper proposes an improved information value model based on gray clustering (IVM-GC for landslide susceptibility mapping. This method uses the information value derived from an information value model to achieve susceptibility classification and weight determination of landslide predisposing factors and, hence, obtain the landslide susceptibility of each study unit based on the clustering analysis. Using a landslide inventory of Chongqing, China, which contains 8435 landslides, three landslide susceptibility maps were generated based on the common information value model (IVM, an information value model improved by an analytic hierarchy process (IVM-AHP and our new improved model. Approximately 70% (5905 of the inventory landslides were used to generate the susceptibility maps, while the remaining 30% (2530 were used to validate the results. The training accuracies of the IVM, IVM-AHP and IVM-GC were 81.8%, 78.7% and 85.2%, respectively, and the prediction accuracies were 82.0%, 78.7% and 85.4%, respectively. The results demonstrate that all three methods perform well in evaluating landslide susceptibility. Among them, IVM-GC has the best performance.

  10. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar

    2014-01-01

    Fuel consumption specifies the amount of vegetative biomass consumed during wildland fire. It is a two-stage process of pyrolysis and combustion that occurs simultaneously and at different rates depending on the characteristics and condition of the fuel, weather, topography, and in the case of prescribed fire, ignition rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic...

  11. Simulation of a Large Wildfire in a Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Baptiste Filippi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Aullene fire devastated more than 3000 ha of Mediterranean maquis and pine forest in July 2009. The simulation of combustion processes, as well as atmospheric dynamics represents a challenge for such scenarios because of the various involved scales, from the scale of the individual flames to the larger regional scale. A coupled approach between the Meso-NH (Meso-scale Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric model running in LES (Large Eddy Simulation mode and the ForeFire fire spread model is proposed for predicting fine- to large-scale effects of this extreme wildfire, showing that such simulation is possible in a reasonable time using current supercomputers. The coupling involves the surface wind to drive the fire, while heat from combustion and water vapor fluxes are injected into the atmosphere at each atmospheric time step. To be representative of the phenomenon, a sub-meter resolution was used for the simulation of the fire front, while atmospheric simulations were performed with nested grids from 2400-m to 50-m resolution. Simulations were run with or without feedback from the fire to the atmospheric model, or without coupling from the atmosphere to the fire. In the two-way mode, the burnt area was reproduced with a good degree of realism at the local scale, where an acceleration in the valley wind and over sloping terrain pushed the fire line to locations in accordance with fire passing point observations. At the regional scale, the simulated fire plume compares well with the satellite image. The study explores the strong fire-atmosphere interactions leading to intense convective updrafts extending above the boundary layer, significant downdrafts behind the fire line in the upper plume, and horizontal wind speeds feeding strong inflow into the base of the convective updrafts. The fire-induced dynamics is induced by strong near-surface sensible heat fluxes reaching maximum values of 240 kW m − 2 . The dynamical production of turbulent kinetic

  12. Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

    2014-05-01

    Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

  13. Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Moghaddas; B.M. Collins; K. Menning; E.E.Y. Moghaddas; S.L. Stephens

    2010-01-01

    Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection...

  14. Modeling wildland fire containment with uncertain flame length and fireline width

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romain Mees; David Strauss; Richard Chase

    1993-01-01

    We describe a mathematical model for the probability that a fireline succeeds in containing a fire. The probability increases as the fireline width increases, and also as the fire's flame length decreases. More interestingly, uncertainties in width and flame length affect the computed containment probabilities, and can thus indirectly affect the optimum allocation...

  15. Advancing investigation and physical modeling of first-order fire effects on soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Massman; John M. Frank; Sacha J. Mooney

    2010-01-01

    Heating soil during intense wildland fires or slash-pile burns can alter the soil irreversibly, resulting in many significant long-term biological, chemical, physical, and hydrological effects. To better understand these long-term effects, it is necessary to improve modeling capability and prediction of the more immediate, or first-order, effects that fire can have on...

  16. Using Modeling and Rehearsal to Teach Fire Safety to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, David; Dukes, Charles; Brady, Michael P.; Scott, Jack; Wilson, Cynthia L.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the efficacy of an instructional procedure to teach young children with autism to evacuate settings and notify an adult during a fire alarm. A multiple baseline design across children showed that an intervention that included modeling, rehearsal, and praise was effective in teaching fire safety skills. Safety skills generalized to…

  17. First-order fire effects on herbs and Shrubs: present knowledge and process modeling needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Stephan; Melanie Miller; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Herbaceous plants and shrubs have received little attention in terms of fire effects modeling despite their critical role in ecosystem integrity and resilience after wildfires and prescribed burns. In this paper, we summarize current knowledge of direct effects of fire on herb and shrub (including cacti) vegetative tissues and seed banks, propose key components for...

  18. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to

  19. Identifying vulnerable populations to death and injuries from residential fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Stanley W; Butry, David T

    2017-08-03

    This study proposes and evaluates the theory that people who are susceptible to injury in residential fires are not susceptible to death in residential fires and vice versa. It is proposed that the population vulnerable to death in residential fires can be proxied by 'frailty', which is measured as age-gender adjusted fatality rates due to natural causes. This study uses an ecological approach and controls for exposure to estimate the vulnerability of different population groups to death and injury in residential fires. It allows fatalities and injuries to be estimated by different models. Frailty explains fire-related death in adults while not explaining injuries, which is consistent with the idea that deaths and injuries affect disjoint populations. Deaths and injuries in fire are drawn from different populations. People who are susceptible to dying in fires are unlikely to be injured in fires, and the people who are susceptible to injury are unlikely to die in fires. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  20. Modeling fires in adjacent ship compartments with computational fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Cole, J.K.; Koski, J.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the thermal effects on radioactive (RAM) transportation pack ages with a fire in an adjacent compartment. An assumption for this analysis is that the adjacent hold fire is some sort of engine room fire. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis tools were used to perform the analysis in order to include convective heat transfer effects. The analysis results were compared to experimental data gathered in a series of tests on the United States Coast Guard ship Mayo Lykes located at Mobile, Alabama. (authors)

  1. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  2. Catchment-scale Validation of a Physically-based, Post-fire Runoff and Erosion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, D.; Brooks, E. S.; Robichaud, P. R.; Dobre, M.; Brown, R. E.; Wagenbrenner, J.

    2017-12-01

    The cascading consequences of fire-induced ecological changes have profound impacts on both natural and managed forest ecosystems. Forest managers tasked with implementing post-fire mitigation strategies need robust tools to evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions, particularly those affecting hydrological recovery. Various hillslope-scale interfaces of the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model have been successfully validated for this purpose using fire-effected plot experiments, however these interfaces are explicitly designed to simulate single hillslopes. Spatially-distributed, catchment-scale WEPP interfaces have been developed over the past decade, however none have been validated for post-fire simulations, posing a barrier to adoption for forest managers. In this validation study, we compare WEPP simulations with pre- and post-fire hydrological records for three forested catchments (W. Willow, N. Thomas, and S. Thomas) that burned in the 2011 Wallow Fire in Northeastern Arizona, USA. Simulations were conducted using two approaches; the first using automatically created inputs from an online, spatial, post-fire WEPP interface, and the second using manually created inputs which incorporate the spatial variability of fire effects observed in the field. Both approaches were compared to five years of observed post-fire sediment and flow data to assess goodness of fit.

  3. Microclimate and Modeled Fire Behavior Differ Between Adjacent Forest Types in Northern Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Pinto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Fire severity varies with forest composition and structure, reflecting micrometeorology and the fuel complex, but their respective influences are difficult to untangle from observation alone. We quantify the differences in fire weather between different forest types and the resulting differences in modeled fire behavior. Collection of in-stand weather data proceeded during two summer periods in three adjacent stands in northern Portugal, respectively Pinus pinaster (PP, Betula alba (BA, and Chamaecyparis lawsoniana (CL. Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed varied respectively as CL < PP < BA, PP < CL < BA, and CL < BA < PP. Differences between PP and the other types were greatest during the warmest and driest hours of the day in a sequence of 10 days with high fire danger. Estimates of daytime moisture content of fine dead fuels and fire behavior characteristics for this period, respectively, from Behave and BehavePlus, indicate a CL < BA < PP gradient in fire potential. High stand density in CL and BA ensured lower wind speed and higher fuel moisture content than in PP, limiting the likelihood of an extreme fire environment. However, regression tree analysis revealed that the fire behavior distinction between the three forest types was primarily a function of the surface fuel complex, and more so during extreme fire weather conditions.

  4. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  5. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  6. Satellite, climatological, and theoretical inputs for modeling of the diurnal cycle of fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.; Schmidt, C. C.; Giglio, L.; Prins, E.

    2009-12-01

    The diurnal cycle of fire activity is crucial for accurate simulation of atmospheric effects of fire emissions, especially at finer spatial and temporal scales. Estimating diurnal variability in emissions is also a critical problem for construction of emissions estimates from multiple sensors with variable coverage patterns. An optimal diurnal emissions estimate will use as much information as possible from satellite fire observations, compensate known biases in those observations, and use detailed theoretical models of the diurnal cycle to fill in missing information. As part of ongoing improvements to the Fire Location and Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) fire monitoring system, we evaluated several different methods of integrating observations with different temporal sampling. We used geostationary fire detections from WF_ABBA, fire detection data from MODIS, empirical diurnal cycles from TRMM, and simple theoretical diurnal curves based on surface heating. Our experiments integrated these data in different combinations to estimate the diurnal cycles of emissions for each location and time. Hourly emissions estimates derived using these methods were tested using an aerosol transport model. We present results of this comparison, and discuss the implications of our results for the broader problem of multi-sensor data fusion in fire emissions modeling.

  7. An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Lu; Huang, Xianjia; Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.

  8. An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Lu [Sate Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230027 (China); Huang, Xianjia, E-mail: huangxianjia@gziit.ac.cn [Joint Laboratory of Fire Safety in Nuclear Power Plants, Institute of Industry Technology Guangzhou & Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 511458 (China); Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang [China Nuclear Power Design Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518045 (China)

    2016-05-15

    Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.

  9. A combustion model of vegetation burning in "Tiger" fire propagation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannino, F.; Ascoli, D.; Sirignano, M.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Rego, F.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a semi-physical model for the burning of vegetation in a wildland fire. The main physical-chemical processes involved in fire spreading are modelled through a set of ordinary differential equations, which describe the combustion process as linearly related to the consumption of fuel. The water evaporation process from leaves and wood is also considered. Mass and energy balance equations are written for fuel (leaves and wood) assuming that combustion process is homogeneous in space. The model is developed with the final aim of simulating large-scale wildland fires which spread on heterogeneous landscape while keeping the computation cost very low.

  10. The Design of a Fire Source in Scale-Model Experiments with Smoke Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm; Brohus, Henrik; la Cour-Harbo, H.

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes the design of a fire and a smoke source for scale-model experiments with smoke ventilation. It is only possible to work with scale-model experiments where the Reynolds number is reduced compared to full scale, and it is demonstrated that special attention to the fire source...... (heat and smoke source) may improve the possibility of obtaining Reynolds number independent solutions with a fully developed flow. The paper shows scale-model experiments for the Ofenegg tunnel case. Design of a fire source for experiments with smoke ventilation in a large room and smoke movement...

  11. Modeling the Emission of CO from Wood Fires using Detailed Chemical Kinetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dederichs, Anne

    Carbon monoxide is treated as one of the most common and dangerous of gases evolving in fires. Modeling the formation of the toxic gas CO from in fire enclosures using detailed chemical kinetics is the topic of this manuscript. A semi-empirical model is developed to study the formation of CO from......, the model separately treats the process of pyrolysis and combustion. For under ventilated conditions and at high temperatures during pyrolysis it is found that the process of pyrolysation strongly influences the formation of CO in fire. CO2 follows the same trend....

  12. Candidate hippocampal biomarkers of susceptibility and resilience to stress in a rat model of depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Kim; Palmfeldt, Johan; Christiansen, Sofie Friis

    2012-01-01

    -scale proteomics was used to map hippocampal protein alterations in different stress states. Membrane proteins were successfully captured by two-phase separation and peptide based proteomics. Using iTRAQ labeling coupled with mass spectrometry, more than 2000 proteins were quantified and 73 proteins were found......Susceptibility to stress plays a crucial role in the development of psychiatric disorders such as unipolar depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. In the present study the chronic mild stress rat model of depression was used to reveal stress-susceptible and stress-resilient rats. Large...... to be differentially expressed. Stress susceptibility was associated with increased expression of a sodium-channel protein (SCN9A) currently investigated as a potential antidepressant target. Differential protein profiling also indicated stress susceptibility to be associated with deficits in synaptic vesicle release...

  13. Modeling syngas-fired gas turbine engines with two dilutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Mitchell E.

    2011-12-01

    Prior gas turbine engine modeling work at the University of Wyoming studied cycle performance and turbine design with air and CO2-diluted GTE cycles fired with methane and syngas fuels. Two of the cycles examined were unconventional and innovative. The work presented herein reexamines prior results and expands the modeling by including the impacts of turbine cooling and CO2 sequestration on GTE cycle performance. The simple, conventional regeneration and two alternative regeneration cycle configurations were examined. In contrast to air dilution, CO2 -diluted cycle efficiencies increased by approximately 1.0 percentage point for the three regeneration configurations examined, while the efficiency of the CO2-diluted simple cycle decreased by approximately 5.0 percentage points. For CO2-diluted cycles with a closed-exhaust recycling path, an optimum CO2-recycle pressure was determined for each configuration that was significantly lower than atmospheric pressure. Un-cooled alternative regeneration configurations with CO2 recycling achieved efficiencies near 50%, which was approximately 3.0 percentage points higher than the conventional regeneration cycle and simple cycle configurations that utilized CO2 recycling. Accounting for cooling of the first two turbine stages resulted in a 2--3 percentage point reduction in un-cooled efficiency, with air dilution corresponding to the upper extreme. Additionally, when the work required to sequester CO2 was accounted for, cooled cycle efficiency decreased by 4--6 percentage points, and was more negatively impacted when syngas fuels were used. Finally, turbine design models showed that turbine blades are shorter with CO2 dilution, resulting in fewer design restrictions.

  14. PyrE, an interactive fire module within the NASA-GISS Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezuman, K.; Bauer, S. E.; Tsigaridis, K.

    2017-12-01

    Fires directly affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth's radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. Having an interactive fire module in an Earth System Model allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of biomass burning in different time periods. To do so we have developed PyrE, the NASA-GISS interactive fire emissions model. PyrE uses the flammability, ignition, and suppression parameterization proposed by Pechony and Shindell (2009), and is coupled to a burned area and surface recovery parameterization. The burned area calculation follows CLM's approach (Li et al., 2012), paired with an offline recovery scheme based on Ent's Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) carbon pool turnover time. PyrE is driven by environmental variables calculated by climate simulations, population density data, MODIS fire counts and LAI retrievals, as well as GFED4s emissions. Since the model development required extensive use of reference datasets, in addition to comparing it to GFED4s BA, we evaluate it by studying the effect of fires on atmospheric composition and climate. Our results show good agreement globally, with some regional differences. Finally, we quantify the present day fire radiative forcing. The development of PyrE allowed us for the first time to interactively simulate climate and fire activity with GISS-ModelE3

  15. Fire spread in chaparral – a comparison of laboratory data and model predictions in burning live fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Eunmo Koo; Xiangyang Zhou; Shankar Mahalingam; Frédéric Morandini; Jacques-Henri Balbi

    2016-01-01

    Fire behaviour data from 240 laboratory fires in high-density live chaparral fuel beds were compared with model predictions. Logistic regression was used to develop a model to predict fire spread success in the fuel beds and linear regression was used to predict rate of spread. Predictions from the Rothermel equation and three proposed changes as well as two physically...

  16. Development of CFD fire models for deterministic analyses of the cable issues in the nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.-H.; Ferng, Y.-M.; Pei, B.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Additional fire barriers of electrical cables are required for the nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan due to the separation requirements of Appendix R to 10 CFR Part 50. The risk-informed fire analysis (RIFA) may provide a viable method to resolve these fire barrier issues. However, it is necessary to perform the fire scenario analyses so that RIFA can quantitatively determine the risk related to the fire barrier wrap. The CFD fire models are then proposed in this paper to help the RIFA in resolving these issues. Three typical fire scenarios are selected to assess the present CFD models. Compared with the experimental data and other model's simulations, the present calculated results show reasonable agreements, rendering that present CFD fire models can provide the quantitative information for RIFA analyses to release the cable wrap requirements for NPPs

  17. Estimation of time to rupture in a fire using 6FIRE, a lumped parameter UF6 cylinder transient heat transfer/stress analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, W.R.; Anderson, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The transportation of UF 6 is subject to regulations requiring the evaluation of packaging under a sequence of hypothetical accident conditions including exposure to a 30-min 800 degree C (1475 degree F) fire [10 CFR 71.73(c)(3)]. An issue of continuing interest is whether bare cylinders can withstand such a fire without rupturing. To address this issue, a lumped parameter heat transfer/stress analysis model (6FIRE) has been developed to simulate heating to the point of rupture of a cylinder containing UF 6 when it is exposed to a fire. The model is described, then estimates of time to rupture are presented for various cylinder types, fire temperatures, and fill conditions. An assessment of the quantity of UF 6 released from containment after rupture is also presented. Further documentation of the model is referenced

  18. Implications of emission inventory choice for modeling fire-related pollution in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koplitz, S. N.; Nolte, C. G.; Pouliot, G.

    2017-12-01

    Wildland fires are a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one of the most harmful ambient pollutants for human health globally. Within the U.S., wildland fires can account for more than 30% of total annual PM2.5 emissions. In order to represent the influence of fire emissions on atmospheric composition, regional and global chemical transport models (CTMs) rely on fire emission inventories developed from estimates of burned area (i.e. fire size and location). Burned area can be estimated using a range of top-down and bottom-up approaches, including satellite-derived remote sensing and on-the-ground incident reports. While burned area estimates agree with each other reasonably well in the western U.S. (within 20-30% for most years during 2002-2014), estimates for the southern U.S. vary by more than a factor of 3. Differences in burned area estimation methods lead to significant variability in the spatial and temporal allocation of emissions across fire emission inventory platforms. In this work, we implement fire emission estimates for 2011 from three different products - the USEPA National Emission Inventory (NEI), the Fire INventory of NCAR (FINN), and the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED4s) - into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to quantify and characterize differences in simulated fire-related PM2.5 and ozone concentrations across the contiguous U.S. due solely to the emission inventory used. Preliminary results indicate that the estimated contribution to national annual average PM2.5 from wildland fire in 2011 is highest using GFED4s emissions (1.0 µg m-3) followed by NEI (0.7 µg m-3) and FINN (0.3 µg m-3), with comparisons varying significantly by region and season. Understanding the sensitivity of modeling fire-related PM2.5 and ozone in the U.S. to fire emission inventory choice will inform future efforts to assess the implications of present and future fire activity for air quality and human health at national and global

  19. Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities

  20. ANFIS modeling for the assessment of landslide susceptibility for the Cameron Highland (Malaysia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Biswajeet; Sezer, Ebru; Gokceoglu, Candan; Buchroithner, Manfred F.

    2010-05-01

    Landslides are one of the recurrent natural hazard problems throughout most of Malaysia. In landslide literature, there are several approaches such as probabilistic, bivariate and multivariate statistical models, fuzzy and artificial neural network models etc. However, a neuro-fuzzy application on the landslide susceptibility assessment has not been encountered in the literature. For this reason, this study presents the results of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using remote sensing data and GIS for landslide susceptibility analysis in a part of the Cameron Highland areas in Malaysia. Landslide locations in the study area were identified by interpreting aerial photographs and satellite images, supported by extensive field surveys. Landsat TM satellite imagery was used to map vegetation index. Maps of topography, lineaments, NDVI and land cover were constructed from the spatial datasets. Seven landslide conditioning factors such as altitude, slope angle, curvature, distance from drainage, lithology, distance from faults and NDVI were extracted from the spatial database. These factors were analyzed using an ANFIS to produce the landslide susceptibility maps. During the model development works, total 5 landslide susceptibility models were constructed. For verification, the results of the analyses were then compared with the field-verified landslide locations. Additionally, the ROC curves for all landslide susceptibility models were drawn and the area under curve values were calculated. Landslide locations were used to validate results of the landslide susceptibility map and the verification results showed 97% accuracy for the model 5 employing all parameters produced in the present study as the landslide conditioning factors. The validation results showed sufficient agreement between the obtained susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide areas. Qualitatively, the model yields reasonable results which can be used for preliminary land

  1. Modelling of electrical cabinet fires based on the CARMELA experimental program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melis, S.; Rigollet, L.; Such, J.M.; Casselman, C.

    2004-01-01

    As fire of electrical cabinets causes some hazard to nuclear safety, IRSN has conducted the CARMELA program to investigate this topic. The program was carried out in three stages. The two first stages consisted in analytical experiments where the combustible was simulated by thin plastic pieces and where the different parameters that influence the fire could be easily varied. The third stage involved real relay cabinets. This article first describes the experimental facility and the test matrix. The phenomenology of electrical cabinet fires is then exposed and the most influencing parameters are identified from the analytical experiments: the ventilation comes at first rank but the materials involved are also shown to influence the propagation of the fire. The model developed to represent the fire, and particularly the rate of heat released, is then presented and the comparison of its results with the measurements performed in the experiments shows that its validity is acceptable. (orig.)

  2. Fire modeling for Building 221-T - T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oar, D.L.

    1994-01-01

    This report was prepared by Hughes Associates, Inc. to document the results of fire models for building 221-T Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel. Backup data is contained in document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-010, Rev. 0

  3. Enhanced pairing susceptibility in a photodoped two-orbital Hubbard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Philipp; Strand, Hugo U. R.; Hoshino, Shintaro; Murakami, Yuta; Eckstein, Martin

    2018-04-01

    Local spin fluctuations provide the glue for orbital-singlet spin-triplet pairing in the doped Mott insulating regime of multiorbital Hubbard models. At large Hubbard repulsion U , the pairing susceptibility is nevertheless tiny because the pairing interaction cannot overcome the suppression of charge fluctuations. Using nonequilibrium dynamical mean field simulations of the two-orbital Hubbard model, we show that out of equilibrium the pairing susceptibility in this large-U regime can be strongly enhanced by creating a photoinduced population of the relevant charge states. This enhancement is supported by the long lifetime of photodoped charge carriers and a built-in cooling mechanism in multiorbital Hubbard systems.

  4. Detailed modelling of the susceptibility of a thermally populated, strongly driven circuit-QED system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kockum, Anton Frisk; Johansson, Göran; Sandberg, Martin; Vissers, Michael R; Gao, Jiansong; Pappas, David P

    2013-01-01

    We present measurements and modelling of the susceptibility of a 2D microstrip cavity coupled to a driven transmon qubit. We are able to fit the response of the cavity to a weak probe signal with high accuracy in the strong coupling, low detuning, i.e., non-dispersive, limit over a wide bandwidth. The observed spectrum is rich in multi-photon processes for the doubly dressed transmon. These features are well explained by including the higher transmon levels in the driven Jaynes–Cummings model and solving the full master equation to calculate the susceptibility of the cavity. (paper)

  5. A deterministric and probabilistric model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, B.

    1988-03-01

    A deterministic and probabilistic model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plant compartments has been developed. It's objective is to predict whether certain components in the compartment will cease to function as a result of the fire and to give the probability of failure. Results are presented for several scenarios in two compartments. The model has been implimented in the computer code OSFIC, a tool for safety engineers to compare various component configurations in different compartments. (author)

  6. Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Formetta

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced shallow landslides can lead to loss of life and significant damage to private and public properties, transportation systems, etc. Predicting locations that might be susceptible to shallow landslides is a complex task and involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, and statistics. Two main approaches are commonly used: statistical or physically based models. Reliable model applications involve automatic parameter calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, and model sensitivity analyses. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify, and compare different models and model performance indicators in order to identify and select the models whose behavior is the most reliable for particular case studies.The procedure was implemented in a package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3 and a component for model verification. It computes eight goodness-of-fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurement data. The integration of the package in NewAge-JGrass uses other components, such as geographic information system tools, to manage input–output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy along the Salerno–Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia. The area is extensively subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides mainly because of its complex geology and climatology. The analysis was carried out considering all the combinations of the eight optimized indices and the three models. Parameter calibration, verification, and model performance assessment were performed by a comparison with a detailed landslide

  7. Simulating smoke transport from wildland fires with a regional-scale air quality model: sensitivity to spatiotemporal allocation of fire emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Hu, Yongtao; Odman, Mehmet T

    2014-09-15

    Air quality forecasts generated with chemical transport models can provide valuable information about the potential impacts of fires on pollutant levels. However, significant uncertainties are associated with fire-related emission estimates as well as their distribution on gridded modeling domains. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of fine particulate matter concentrations predicted by a regional-scale air quality model to the spatial and temporal allocation of fire emissions. The assessment was completed by simulating a fire-related smoke episode in which air quality throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area was affected on February 28, 2007. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the significance of emission distribution among the model's vertical layers, along the horizontal plane, and into hourly inputs. Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were highly sensitive to emission injection altitude relative to planetary boundary layer height. Simulations were also responsive to the horizontal allocation of fire emissions and their distribution into single or multiple grid cells. Additionally, modeled concentrations were greatly sensitive to the temporal distribution of fire-related emissions. The analyses demonstrate that, in addition to adequate estimates of emitted mass, successfully modeling the impacts of fires on air quality depends on an accurate spatiotemporal allocation of emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Phasic firing in vasopressin cells: understanding its functional significance through computational models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duncan J MacGregor

    Full Text Available Vasopressin neurons, responding to input generated by osmotic pressure, use an intrinsic mechanism to shift from slow irregular firing to a distinct phasic pattern, consisting of long bursts and silences lasting tens of seconds. With increased input, bursts lengthen, eventually shifting to continuous firing. The phasic activity remains asynchronous across the cells and is not reflected in the population output signal. Here we have used a computational vasopressin neuron model to investigate the functional significance of the phasic firing pattern. We generated a concise model of the synaptic input driven spike firing mechanism that gives a close quantitative match to vasopressin neuron spike activity recorded in vivo, tested against endogenous activity and experimental interventions. The integrate-and-fire based model provides a simple physiological explanation of the phasic firing mechanism involving an activity-dependent slow depolarising afterpotential (DAP generated by a calcium-inactivated potassium leak current. This is modulated by the slower, opposing, action of activity-dependent dendritic dynorphin release, which inactivates the DAP, the opposing effects generating successive periods of bursting and silence. Model cells are not spontaneously active, but fire when perturbed by random perturbations mimicking synaptic input. We constructed one population of such phasic neurons, and another population of similar cells but which lacked the ability to fire phasically. We then studied how these two populations differed in the way that they encoded changes in afferent inputs. By comparison with the non-phasic population, the phasic population responds linearly to increases in tonic synaptic input. Non-phasic cells respond to transient elevations in synaptic input in a way that strongly depends on background activity levels, phasic cells in a way that is independent of background levels, and show a similar strong linearization of the response

  9. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  10. Modeling landslide susceptibility in data-scarce environments using optimized data mining and statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Hyun; Sameen, Maher Ibrahim; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Park, Hyuck-Jin

    2018-02-01

    This study evaluated the generalizability of five models to select a suitable approach for landslide susceptibility modeling in data-scarce environments. In total, 418 landslide inventories and 18 landslide conditioning factors were analyzed. Multicollinearity and factor optimization were investigated before data modeling, and two experiments were then conducted. In each experiment, five susceptibility maps were produced based on support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), weight-of-evidence (WoE), ridge regression (Rid_R), and robust regression (RR) models. The highest accuracy (AUC = 0.85) was achieved with the SVM model when either the full or limited landslide inventories were used. Furthermore, the RF and WoE models were severely affected when less landslide samples were used for training. The other models were affected slightly when the training samples were limited.

  11. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  12. Mesh influence on the fire computer modeling in nuclear power plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Lázaro

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire computer models allow to study real fire scenarios consequences. Its use in nuclear power plants has increased with the new regulations to apply risk informed performance-based methods for the analysis and design of fire safety solutions. The selection of the cell side factor is very important in these kinds of models. The mesh must establish a compromise between the geometry adjustment, the resolution of the equations and the computation times. This paper aims to study the impact of several cell sizes, using the fire computer model FDS, to evaluate the relative affectation in the final simulation results. In order to validate that, we have employed several scenarios of interest for nuclear power plants. Conclusions offer relevant data for users and show some cell sizes that can be selected to guarantee the quality of the simulations and reduce the results uncertainty.

  13. A Five-Year CMAQ PM2.5 Model Performance for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, J. L.; Pouliot, G.; Foley, K.; Rappold, A.; Pierce, T. E.

    2016-12-01

    Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. Two components of the biomass burning inventory, wildfires and prescribed fires are routinely estimated in the national emissions inventory. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the development of these emission inventory sectors. We have completed a 5 year set of CMAQ model simulations (2008-2012) in which we have simulated regional air quality with and without the wildfire and prescribed fire inventory. We will examine CMAQ model performance over regions with significant PM2.5 and Ozone contribution from prescribed fires and wildfires. We will also review plume rise to see how it affects model bias and compare CMAQ current fire emissions input to an hourly dataset from FLAMBE.

  14. Finite-size behaviour of generalized susceptibilities in the whole phase plane of the Potts model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xue; Zhang, Yanhua; Chen, Lizhu; Xu, Mingmei; Wu, Yuanfang

    2018-01-01

    We study the sign distribution of generalized magnetic susceptibilities in the temperature-external magnetic field plane using the three-dimensional three-state Potts model. We find that the sign of odd-order susceptibility is opposite in the symmetric (disorder) and broken (order) phases, but that of the even-order one remains positive when it is far away from the phase boundary. When the critical point is approached from the crossover side, negative fourth-order magnetic susceptibility is observable. It is also demonstrated that non-monotonic behavior occurs in the temperature dependence of the generalized susceptibilities of the energy. The finite-size scaling behavior of the specific heat in this model is mainly controlled by the critical exponent of the magnetic susceptibility in the three-dimensional Ising universality class. Supported by Fund Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (11647093, 11405088, 11521064), Fund Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education (16ZB0339), Fund Project of Chengdu Technological University (2016RC004) and the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402)

  15. Evaluation of fire models for nuclear power plant applications. Benchmark exercise no. 4: Fuel pool fire inside a compartment - International panel report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein-Hessling, W.; Roewekamp, M.; Riese, O.

    2006-11-01

    Fire simulations as well as their analytical validation procedures have gained more and more significance, particularly in the context of the fire safety analysis for operating nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, fire simulation models have been adapted as analytical tools for a risk oriented fire safety assessment. Calculated predictions can be used, on the one hand, for the improvements and upgrades of fire protection in nuclear power plants by the licensees and, on the other hand, as a tool for reproducible and clearly understandable estimations in assessing the available and/or foreseen fire protection measures by the authorities and their experts. For consideration of such aspects in the context of implementing new nuclear fire protection standards or of updating existing ones, an 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' also known as the 'International Collaborative Fire Model Project' (ICFMP) was started in 1999. It has made use of the experience and knowledge of a variety of worldwide expert institutions in this field to assess and improve, if necessary, the state-of-the-art with respect to modeling fires in nuclear power plants and other nuclear installations. This document contains the results of the ICFMP Benchmark Exercise No. 4, where two fuel pool fire experiments in an enclosure with two different natural vent sizes have been considered. Analyzing the results of different fire simulation codes and code types provides some indications with respect to the uncertainty of the results. This information is especially important in setting uncertainty parameters in probabilistic risk studies and to provide general insights concerning the applicability and limitations in the application of different types of fire simulation codes for this type of fire scenario and boundary conditions. During the benchmark procedure the participants performed different types of calculations. These included totally blind

  16. Predictive modeling of gingivitis severity and susceptibility via oral microbiota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shi; Li, Rui; Zeng, Xiaowei; He, Tao; Zhao, Helen; Chang, Alice; Bo, Cunpei; Chen, Jie; Yang, Fang; Knight, Rob; Liu, Jiquan; Davis, Catherine; Xu, Jian

    2014-09-01

    Predictive modeling of human disease based on the microbiota holds great potential yet remains challenging. Here, 50 adults underwent controlled transitions from naturally occurring gingivitis, to healthy gingivae (baseline), and to experimental gingivitis (EG). In diseased plaque microbiota, 27 bacterial genera changed in relative abundance and functional genes including 33 flagellar biosynthesis-related groups were enriched. Plaque microbiota structure exhibited a continuous gradient along the first principal component, reflecting transition from healthy to diseased states, which correlated with Mazza Gingival Index. We identified two host types with distinct gingivitis sensitivity. Our proposed microbial indices of gingivitis classified host types with 74% reliability, and, when tested on another 41-member cohort, distinguished healthy from diseased individuals with 95% accuracy. Furthermore, the state of the microbiota in naturally occurring gingivitis predicted the microbiota state and severity of subsequent EG (but not the state of the microbiota during the healthy baseline period). Because the effect of disease is greater than interpersonal variation in plaque, in contrast to the gut, plaque microbiota may provide advantages in predictive modeling of oral diseases.

  17. Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2013-09-01

    We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness

  18. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance : Insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, Patricia; Harden, J. L.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and

  19. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

    2009-01-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

  20. Third order dielectric susceptibility in a model quantum paraelectric

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martonak, R.; Tosatti, E.

    1996-02-01

    In the context of perovskite quantum paraelectrics, we study the effects of a quadrupolar interaction J q , in addition to the standard dipolar one J d . We concentrate here on the nonlinear dielectric response χ (3) P , as the main response function sensitive to quadrupolar (in our case antiquadrupolar) interactions. We employ a 3D quantum four-state lattice model and mean-field theory. The results show that inclusion of quadrupolar coupling of moderate strength (J q ∼ 1/4J d ) is clearly accompanied by a double change of sign of χ (3) P from negative to positive, near the quantum temperature T Q where the quantum paraelectric behaviour sets in. We fit our χ (3) to recent experimental data for SrTiO 3 , where the sign change is identified close to T Q ∼ 37 K. (author). 40 refs, 2 figs

  1. Exergetic Modelling of Oil-Fired Steam Boilers | Ohijeagbon ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The performance variables and potential for energy savings in oil-fired industrial steam boilers were studied. Operational parameters of steam boilers using low pour fuel oil (LPFO) and diesel were used to determine thermodynamic properties of material streams and exergetic parameters. Analysis of thermodynamic ...

  2. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  3. Field validation of a free-agent cellular automata model of fire spread with fire–atmosphere coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary Achtemeier

    2012-01-01

    A cellular automata fire model represents ‘elements’ of fire by autonomous agents. A few simple algebraic expressions substituted for complex physical and meteorological processes and solved iteratively yield simulations for ‘super-diffusive’ fire spread and coupled surface-layer (2-m) fire–atmosphere processes. Pressure anomalies, which are integrals of the thermal...

  4. The π and Tensor Vacuum Susceptibilities from the Global Color Symmetry Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZONG Hong-Shi; PING Jia-Lun; YANG Hong-Ting; LU Xiao-Fu; WANG Fan

    2002-01-01

    A modified method for calculating the nonperturbative quark vacuum condensates from the global color symmetry model is derived. Within this approach it is shown that the treatment of quark vacuum condensates is different from that in the previous studies. As a special case we calculate the π and tensor vacuum susceptibilities. A comparison with the results of the other nonperturbative QCD approaches is given.

  5. Pion Susceptibilities of the Vacuum in a Modified Global Colour Symmetry Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZONG Hong-Shi; WU Xiao-Hua; DING Xiao-Ping; L0 Xiao-Fu; ZHAO En-Guang

    2001-01-01

    Based on a modified version of the global color symmetry model, the pion susceptibilities of vacuum needed in the QCD sum rule external-field method for the coupling of pseudoscalar current to hadron have bean calculated beyond the vacuum saturation approximation. Comparison with the previous estimations has been given.

  6. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility

    KAUST Repository

    Korobeinikov, Andrei; Melnik, Andrey V.

    2013-01-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  7. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi

    2017-06-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.

  8. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

    2017-01-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEII h R) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEII h R model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEII h R model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEII h R model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEII h R model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEII h R model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point ( S e ; E e ; I e ; I he ; R e )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable. (paper)

  9. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbero, R; Abatzoglou, J T; Steel, E A; K Larkin, Narasimhan

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. (letter)

  10. Fidelity susceptibility and long-range correlation in the Kitaev honeycomb model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shuo; Gu, Shi-Jian; Sun, Chang-Pu; Lin, Hai-Qing

    2008-07-01

    We study exactly both the ground-state fidelity susceptibility and bond-bond correlation function in the Kitaev honeycomb model. Our results show that the fidelity susceptibility can be used to identify the topological phase transition from a gapped A phase with Abelian anyon excitations to a gapless B phase with non-Abelian anyon excitations. We also find that the bond-bond correlation function decays exponentially in the gapped phase, but algebraically in the gapless phase. For the former case, the correlation length is found to be 1/ξ=2sinh-1[2Jz-1/(1-Jz)] , which diverges around the critical point Jz=(1/2)+ .

  11. Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suliman, M D H; Mahmud, M; Reba, M N M; S, L W

    2014-01-01

    Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue

  12. Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suliman, M. D. H.; Mahmud, M.; Reba, M. N. M.; S, L. W.

    2014-02-01

    Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue

  13. MODELING ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS OF POST-FIRE REVEGETATION IN THE GREAT BASIN

    OpenAIRE

    Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey E.; Nalle, Darek

    2004-01-01

    This study employs a Markov chain model of vegetation dynamics to examine the economic and ecological benefits of post-fire revegetation in the Great Basin sagebrush steppe. The analysis is important because synergies between wildland fire and invasive weeds in this ecosystem are likely to result in the loss of native biodiversity, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, reduced watershed stability and water quality, and increased costs and risk associated with firefi...

  14. The simulation of surface fire spread based on Rothermel model in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain (Jilin, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Hang; Jin, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Fan, Yuguang; Qin, Liwu; Chen, Qinghong; Huang, Liya; Jia, Xiang; Liu, Lijie; Dai, Yuhong; Xiao, Ying

    2018-03-01

    The forest-fire not only brings great loss to natural resources, but also destructs the ecosystem and reduces the soil fertility, causing some natural disasters as soil erosion and debris flow. However, due to the lack of the prognosis for forest fire spreading trend in forest fire fighting, it is difficult to formulate rational and effective fire-fighting scheme. In the event of forest fire, achieving accurate judgment to the fire behavior would greatly improve the fire-fighting efficiency, and reduce heavy losses caused by fire. Researches on forest fire spread simulation can effectively reduce the loss of disasters. The present study focused on the simulation of "29 May 2012" wildfire in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Basic data were retrieved from the "29 May 2012" wildfire and field survey. A self-development forest fire behavior simulated program based on Rothermel Model was used in the simulation. Kappa coefficient and Sørensen index were employed to evaluate the simulation accuracy. The results showed that: The perimeter of simulated burned area was 4.66 km, the area was 56.47 hm2 and the overlapped burned area was 33.68 hm2, and the estimated rate of fire spread was 0.259 m/s. Between the simulated fire and actual fire, the Kappa coefficient was 0.7398 and the Sørensen co-efficient was 0.7419. This proved the application of Rothermel model to conduct fire behavior simulation in windthrow meadow was feasible. It can achieve the goal of forecasting for the spread behavior in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Thus, our self-development program based on the Rothermel model can provide a effective forecast of fire spread, which will facilitate the fire suppression work.

  15. Multifractal magnetic susceptibility distribution models of hydrothermally altered rocks in the Needle Creek Igneous Center of the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Gettings

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic susceptibility was measured for 700 samples of drill core from thirteen drill holes in the porphyry copper-molybdenum deposit of the Stinkingwater mining district in the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming. The magnetic susceptibility measurements, chemical analyses, and alteration class provided a database for study of magnetic susceptibility in these altered rocks. The distribution of the magnetic susceptibilities for all samples is multi-modal, with overlapping peaked distributions for samples in the propylitic and phyllic alteration class, a tail of higher susceptibilities for potassic alteration, and an approximately uniform distribution over a narrow range at the highest susceptibilities for unaltered rocks. Samples from all alteration and mineralization classes show susceptibilities across a wide range of values. Samples with secondary (supergene alteration due to oxidation or enrichment show lower susceptibilities than primary (hypogene alteration rock. Observed magnetic susceptibility variations and the monolithological character of the host rock suggest that the variations are due to varying degrees of alteration of blocks of rock between fractures that conducted hydrothermal fluids. Alteration of rock from the fractures inward progressively reduces the bulk magnetic susceptibility of the rock. The model introduced in this paper consists of a simulation of the fracture pattern and a simulation of the alteration of the rock between fractures. A multifractal model generated from multiplicative cascades with unequal ratios produces distributions statistically similar to the observed distributions. The reduction in susceptibility in the altered rocks was modelled as a diffusion process operating on the fracture distribution support. The average magnetic susceptibility was then computed for each block. For the purpose of comparing the model results with observation, the simulated magnetic susceptibilities were then averaged over the same

  16. Multifractal magnetic susceptibility distribution models of hydrothermally altered rocks in the Needle Creek Igneous Center of the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gettings, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Magnetic susceptibility was measured for 700 samples of drill core from thirteen drill holes in the porphyry copper-molybdenum deposit of the Stinkingwater mining district in the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming. The magnetic susceptibility measurements, chemical analyses, and alteration class provided a database for study of magnetic susceptibility in these altered rocks. The distribution of the magnetic susceptibilities for all samples is multi-modal, with overlapping peaked distributions for samples in the propylitic and phyllic alteration class, a tail of higher susceptibilities for potassic alteration, and an approximately uniform distribution over a narrow range at the highest susceptibilities for unaltered rocks. Samples from all alteration and mineralization classes show susceptibilities across a wide range of values. Samples with secondary (supergene) alteration due to oxidation or enrichment show lower susceptibilities than primary (hypogene) alteration rock. Observed magnetic susceptibility variations and the monolithological character of the host rock suggest that the variations are due to varying degrees of alteration of blocks of rock between fractures that conducted hydrothermal fluids. Alteration of rock from the fractures inward progressively reduces the bulk magnetic susceptibility of the rock. The model introduced in this paper consists of a simulation of the fracture pattern and a simulation of the alteration of the rock between fractures. A multifractal model generated from multiplicative cascades with unequal ratios produces distributions statistically similar to the observed distributions. The reduction in susceptibility in the altered rocks was modelled as a diffusion process operating on the fracture distribution support. The average magnetic susceptibility was then computed for each block. For the purpose of comparing the model results with observation, the simulated magnetic susceptibilities were then averaged over the same interval as the

  17. Mathematical Model for Dengue Epidemics with Differential Susceptibility and Asymptomatic Patients Using Computer Algebra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldarriaga Vargas, Clarita

    When there are diseases affecting large populations where the social, economic and cultural diversity is significant within the same region, the biological parameters that determine the behavior of the dispersion disease analysis are affected by the selection of different individuals. Therefore and because of the variety and magnitude of the communities at risk of contracting dengue disease around all over the world, suggest defining differentiated populations with individual contributions in the results of the dispersion dengue disease analysis. In this paper those conditions were taken in account when several epidemiologic models were analyzed. Initially a stability analysis was done for a SEIR mathematical model of Dengue disease without differential susceptibility. Both free disease and endemic equilibrium states were found in terms of the basic reproduction number and were defined in the Theorem (3.1). Then a DSEIR model was solved when a new susceptible group was introduced to consider the effects of important biological parameters of non-homogeneous populations in the spreading analysis. The results were compiled in the Theorem (3.2). Finally Theorems (3.3) and (3.4) resumed the basic reproduction numbers for three and n different susceptible groups respectively, giving an idea of how differential susceptibility affects the equilibrium states. The computations were done using an algorithmic method implemented in Maple 11, a general-purpose computer algebra system.

  18. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  19. The Habitat Susceptibility of Bali Starling (Leucopsar rothschildi Stresemann> 1912) Based on Forest Fire Vulnerability Mappin in West Bali National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramatana, F.; Prasetyo, L. B.; Rushayati, S. B.

    2017-10-01

    Bali starling is an endemic and endangered species which tend to decrease of its population in the wild. West Bali National Park (WBNP) is the only habitat of bali starling, however it is threatened nowadays by forest fire. Understanding the sensitivity of habitat to forest & land fire is urgently needed. Geographic Information System (GIS) can be used for mapping the vulnerability of forest fire. This study aims to analyze the contributed factor of forest fire, to develop vulnerability level map of forest fire in WBNP, to estimate habitat vulnerability of bali starling. The variable for mapping forest fire in WBNP were road distance, village distance, land cover, NDVI, NDMI, surface temperature, and slope. Forest fire map in WBNP was created by scoring from each variable, and classified into four classes of forest fire vulnerability which are very low (9 821 ha), low (5 015.718 ha), middle (6 778.656 ha), and high (2 126.006 ha). Bali starling existence in the middle and high vulnerability forest fire class in WBNP, consequently the population and habitat of bali starling is a very vulnerable. Management of population and habitat of bali starling in WBNP must be implemented focus on forest fire impact.

  20. Performing of recent real scale cable fire experiments and presentation of the results in the frame of the international collaborative fire modeling project ICFMP. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, Dietmar; Riese, Olaf; Klingenberg, Mark

    2005-01-01

    As a part of the Fire Risk Research Program, the German iBMB (Institut fuer Baustoffe, Massivbau und Brandschutz) of Braunschweig University of Technology and GRS (Gesellschaft fuer Anlagenund Reaktorsicherheit mbH) are participating in an International Collaborative Fire Modeling Project (ICFMP) to assess and validate fire computer codes for nuclear power plant applications. This assessment is being conducted through benchmarking and validation exercises. The tests are simulating cable fires scenarios in a single compartment. The goal of the actual cable fire series is to investigate the effects of a natural fire to vertically routed cables (worst case) with different cable insulation material (PVC and FRNC). Another important aspect of cable fire is the risk of function failure. Therefore in the test series the short circuit and the conduction loss of cables are measured. This report includes a first description of the experimental results for test 1 - test 4 of the International Collaborative Fire Model Project conducted in December 2003 at the iBMB in Germany. The experimental data are reported on the International Collaborative Fire Model Project - Platform. The measured data shall be the basis for fire simulations. The tests show that the FRNC cables have significantly better characteristics in case of fire. No substantial flame spread takes place even in case of preheating. PVC cables could be ignited with a burner output of 50 kW, in contrary, the FRNC cables could be ignited at burner output of 150 kW. The preheating has a complex effect on the fire behavior of the cables. It may occur that gases are pyrolysed which are not ignited during the phase of preheating. These gases are transported from the cable surrounding and may leave the fire room. Short circuits occur first in case ''conductor to conductor'' and later in case ''conductor to tray''. The time periods until short circuits occur are strongly dependent on the preheating of the cables. In case of

  1. Application of CFD Modeling to Room Fire Growth on Walls

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-01

    to each particle. For fires of other geometries, expressions must be available for representing the characteristic velocity and flame length , in the...burning time, z , is the flame length , ri,, is the selected particle rate. The velocity of the particles generally depends on their launch site. But if...over the characteristic flame length , We used R* = 0.05 or 20 cells over the characteristic flame length . In FDS 2.0 the stoichiometric mixture

  2. Numerical modelling of a straw-fired grate boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a 33 MW straw-fired grate boiler. Combustion on the grate plays akey-role in the analysis of these boilers and in this work a stand-alone code was used to provide inlet conditions for the CFD analysis. Modelpredictions were compa...... mixing in the furnace is a key issue leading to these problems. q 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  3. Convective effects in a regulatory and proposed fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Hohnstreiter, G.F.

    1995-01-01

    Radiation is the dominant mode of heat transfer in large fires. However, convection can be as much as 10 to 20 percent of the total heat transfer to an object in a large fire. The current radioactive material transportation packaging regulations include convection as a mode of heat transfer in the accident condition scenario. The current International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Series 6 packaging regulation states ''the convection coefficient shall be that value which the designer can justify if the package were exposed to the specified fire''. The current Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 71 (10CFR71) packaging regulation states ''when significant, convection heat input must be included on the basis of still, ambient air at 800 degrees C (1475 degrees F)''. Two questions that can arise in an analysts mind from an examination of the packaging regulations is whether convection is significant and whether convection should be included in the design analysis of a radioactive materials transportation container. The objective of this study is to examine the convective effects on an actual radioactive materials transportation package using a regulatory and a proposed thermal boundary condition

  4. Crown Fire Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Crown fire potential was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The...

  5. A Partially-Stirred Batch Reactor Model for Under-Ventilated Fire Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Randall; Weinschenk, Craig

    2013-11-01

    A simple discrete quadrature method is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term in large-eddy simulations (LES) and implemented in the publicly available fire model, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The method is cast as a partially-stirred batch reactor model for each computational cell. The model has three distinct components: (1) a subgrid mixing environment, (2) a mixing model, and (3) a set of chemical rate laws. The subgrid probability density function (PDF) is described by a linear combination of Dirac delta functions with quadrature weights set to satisfy simple integral constraints for the computational cell. It is shown that under certain limiting assumptions, the present method reduces to the eddy dissipation concept (EDC). The model is used to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a methane slot burner and in LES of an under-ventilated compartment fire.

  6. Electrical modeling of semiconductor bridge (SCB) BNCP detonators with electrochemical capacitor firing sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marx, K.D. [Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States); Ingersoll, D.; Bickes, R.W. Jr. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1998-11-01

    In this paper the authors describe computer models that simulate the electrical characteristics and hence, the firing characteristics and performance of a semiconductor bridge (SCB) detonator for the initiation of BNCP [tetraammine-cis-bis (5-nitro-2H-tetrazolato-N{sup 2}) cobalt(III) perchlorate]. The electrical data and resultant models provide new insights into the fundamental behavior of SCB detonators, particularly with respect to the initiation mechanism and the interaction of the explosive powder with the SCB. One model developed, the Thermal Feedback Model, considers the total energy budget for the system, including the time evolution of the energy delivered to the powder by the electrical circuit, as well as that released by the ignition and subsequent chemical reaction of the powder. The authors also present data obtained using a new low-voltage firing set which employed an advanced electrochemical capacitor having a nominal capacitance of 350,000 {micro}F at 9 V, the maximum voltage rating for this particular device. A model for this firing set and detonator was developed by making measurements of the intrinsic capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR < 10 m{Omega}) of a single device. This model was then used to predict the behavior of BNCP SCB detonators fired alone, as well as in a multishot, parallel-string configuration using a firing set composed of either a single 9 V electrochemical capacitor or two of the capacitors wired in series and charged to 18 V.

  7. Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Hollis; S. Matthews; Roger Ottmar; S.J. Prichard; S. Slijepcevic; N.D. Burrows; B. Ward; K.G. Tolhurst; W.R. Anderson; J S. Gould

    2010-01-01

    Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National...

  8. Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Lixia; Lu Qishao

    2006-01-01

    Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing

  9. A fire risk assessment model for residential high-rises with a single stairwell

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, N. D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Valkvist, M.B.

    2018-01-01

    As few or none prescriptive guidelines for fire risk assessment of residential high-rise buildings exist, it has been unclear which fire safety design features constitute an acceptable (adequate) safety level. In order to fill this gap a simplified risk-based decision-support tool, the Fire Risk...... Model (FRM), was developed. The FRM evaluates both the risk level to the occupants and the property risk level as a function of the building characteristics, height and fire safety features for single stairwell residential high-rise buildings. The acceptability of a high-rise design is then defined......, and the associated performance of the FRM evaluated. It was found that compartmentation and the door configurations in the egress path play an important role, along with sprinklers, in order for the design to successfully keep the stairwell free from smoke. Specifically, modern curtain wall facades were found...

  10. Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan Lixia [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China); Lu Qishao [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China)]. E-mail: qishaolu@hotmail.com

    2006-12-15

    Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing.

  11. Analysis of significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling: Case study Jemma drainage network, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vít Maca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the paper is to describe methodology for calculating significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling and present result of selected one. As a study area part of a Jemma basin in Ethiopian Highland is used. This locality is highly affected by mass movement processes. In the first part all major factors and their influence are described briefly. Majority of the work focuses on research of other methodologies used in susceptibility models and design of own methodology. This method is unlike most of the methods used completely objective, therefore it is not possible to intervene in the results. In article all inputs and outputs of the method are described as well as all stages of calculations. Results are illustrated on specific examples. In study area most important factor for landslide susceptibility is slope, on the other hand least important is land cover. At the end of article landslide susceptibility map is created. Part of the article is discussion of results and possible improvements of the methodology.

  12. Application of fire models for risk analysis in french nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brauns, P.

    1989-04-01

    Numerical simulations of compartment fires have been carried out in the French 900 MW and 1 300 MW nuclear power plants, to obtain quantitative data about this particular kind of risk: characteristic spreading times from one redundant electrical train to the other one, behaviour of important electrical components... The main stages of both studies were the following: selection of rooms, the location or function of which are essential for the plant safety in case of fire, on-site inspections to collect information about these rooms (amount of fuel, openings...), definition of fire scenarios, improvement of the fire model VESTA-PLUS, and, finally calculations using this computer code. The simulations have shown two major trends: i) the spreading times, without taking into account any external intervention, are always greater than half an hour, and ii) the specific design of the 1 300 MW power plants generally prevents one of the redundant train from being damaged due to a fire occurring in a room containing the other one. Examples of typical results obtained are given, showing the capability of application of the improved fire model to complex problems

  13. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  14. Exploring Early Angiosperm Fire Feedbacks using Coupled Experiments and Modelling Approaches to Estimate Cretaceous Palaeofire Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcher, Claire; Hudpsith, Victoria

    2016-04-01

    Using the fossil record we are typically limited to exploring linkages between palaeoecological changes and palaeofire activity by assessing the abundance of charcoals preserved in sediments. However, it is the behaviour of fires that primarily governs their ecological effects. Therefore, the ability to estimate variations in aspects of palaeofire behaviour such as palaeofire intensity and rate of spread would be of key benefit toward understanding the coupled evolutionary history of ecosystems and fire. The Cretaceous Period saw major diversification in land plants. Previously, conifers (gymnosperms) and ferns (pteridophytes) dominated Earth's ecosystems until flowering plants (angiosperms) appear in the fossil record of the Early Cretaceous (~135Ma). We have created surface fire behaviour estimates for a variety of angiosperm invasion scenarios and explored the influence of Cretaceous superambient atmospheric oxygen levels on the fire behaviour occurring in these new Cretaceous ecosystems. These estimates are then used to explore the hypothesis that the early spread of the angiosperms was promoted by the novel fire regimes that they created. In order to achieve this we tested the flammability of Mesozoic analogue fuel types in controlled laboratory experiments using an iCone calorimeter, which measured the ignitability as well as the effective heat of combustion of the fuels. We then used the BehavePlus fire behaviour modelling system to scale up our laboratory results to the ecosystem scale. Our results suggest that fire-angiosperm feedbacks may have occurred in two phases: The first phase being a result of weedy angiosperms providing an additional easily ignitable fuel that enhanced both the seasonality and frequency of surface fires. In the second phase, the addition of shrubby understory fuels likely expanded the number of ecosystems experiencing more intense surface fires, resulting in enhanced mortality and suppressed post-fire recruitment of gymnosperms

  15. [Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

  16. Project-oriented management of industrial production of fire and rescue equipment by means of geometric modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Rak, Iu; Bondarenko, V.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The objective of the research is to develop a method based on the geometric modelling for the purpose of improving the effectiveness of fire protection project management in industrial production of fire protection technology systems. Methods: The theoretical inheritance mode of effective management in project-organizational structure of fire protection and specialized technical equipment production using geometric modelling. Results: Mathematical and geometric models of project ma...

  17. Application of Different HSI Color Models to Detect Fire-Damaged Mortar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To obtain a better understanding of the effect of vehicle fires on rigid pavement, a nondestructive test method utilizing an ordinary digital camera to capture images of mortar at five elevated temperatures was undertaken. These images were then analyzed by “image color-intensity analyzer” software. In image analysis, the RGB color model was the basic system used to represent the color information of images. HSI is a derived-color model that is transformed from an RGB model by formulae. In order to understand more about surface color changes and temperatures after a vehicle fire, various transformation formulae used in different research areas were applied in this study. They were then evaluated to obtain the optimum HSI model for further studies of fire-damaged mortar through the use of image analysis.

  18. Application of a hybrid model of neural networks and genetic algorithms to evaluate landslide susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H. B.; Li, J. W.; Zhou, B.; Yuan, Z. Q.; Chen, Y. P.

    2013-03-01

    In the last few decades, the development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology has provided a method for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility and hazard. Slope units were found to be appropriate for the fundamental morphological elements in landslide susceptibility evaluation. Following the DEM construction in a loess area susceptible to landslides, the direct-reverse DEM technology was employed to generate 216 slope units in the studied area. After a detailed investigation, the landslide inventory was mapped in which 39 landslides, including paleo-landslides, old landslides and recent landslides, were present. Of the 216 slope units, 123 involved landslides. To analyze the mechanism of these landslides, six environmental factors were selected to evaluate landslide occurrence: slope angle, aspect, the height and shape of the slope, distance to river and human activities. These factors were extracted in terms of the slope unit within the ArcGIS software. The spatial analysis demonstrates that most of the landslides are located on convex slopes at an elevation of 100-150 m with slope angles from 135°-225° and 40°-60°. Landslide occurrence was then checked according to these environmental factors using an artificial neural network with back propagation, optimized by genetic algorithms. A dataset of 120 slope units was chosen for training the neural network model, i.e., 80 units with landslide presence and 40 units without landslide presence. The parameters of genetic algorithms and neural networks were then set: population size of 100, crossover probability of 0.65, mutation probability of 0.01, momentum factor of 0.60, learning rate of 0.7, max learning number of 10 000, and target error of 0.000001. After training on the datasets, the susceptibility of landslides was mapped for the land-use plan and hazard mitigation. Comparing the susceptibility map with landslide inventory, it was noted that the prediction accuracy of landslide occurrence

  19. Numerical prediction of heat-flux to massive calorimeters engulfed in regulatory fires with the cask analysis fire environment (CAFE) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koski, Jorman A.; Suo-Antitla, Ahti; Kramer M, Alex; Greiner, Miles

    2000-01-01

    Recent observations show that the thermal boundary conditions within large-scale fires are significantly affected by the presence of thermally massive objects. These objects cool the soot and gas near their surfaces, and these effects reduce the incoming radiant heat-flux to values lower than the levels expected from simple σT fire 4 models. They also affect the flow and temperature fields in the fire far from their surfaces. The Cask Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories to provide an enhanced fire boundary condition for the design of radioactive material packages. CAFE is a set of computer subroutines that use computational fluid mechanics methods to predict convective heat transfer and mixing. It also includes models for fuel and oxygen transport, chemical reaction, and participating-media radiation heat transfer. This code uses two-dimensional computational models so that it has reasonably short turnaround times on standard workstations and is well suited for design and risk studies. In this paper, CAFE is coupled with a commercial finite-element program to model a large cylindrical calorimeter fully engulfed in a pool fire. The time-dependent heat-flux to the calorimeter and the calorimeter surface temperature are determined for several locations around the calorimeter circumference. The variation of heat-flux with location is determined for calorimeters with different diameters and wall thickness, and the observed effects discussed

  20. Numerical modelling of a straw-fired grate boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a 33 MW straw-fired grate boiler. Combustion on the grate plays akey-role in the analysis of these boilers and in this work a stand-alone code was used to provide inlet conditions for the CFD analysis. Modelpredictions were...... compared with available gas temperature and species concentration measurements showing good agreement. Combustionof biomass in grate-based boilers is often associated with high emission levels and relatively high amounts of unburnt carbon in the fly ash.Based on the CFD analysis, it is suggested that poor...

  1. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for comparison of single-neuron firing intensities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottas, Athanasios; Behseta, Sam

    2010-03-01

    We propose a fully inferential model-based approach to the problem of comparing the firing patterns of a neuron recorded under two distinct experimental conditions. The methodology is based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process models for the firing times of each condition with flexible nonparametric mixture prior models for the corresponding intensity functions. We demonstrate posterior inferences from a global analysis, which may be used to compare the two conditions over the entire experimental time window, as well as from a pointwise analysis at selected time points to detect local deviations of firing patterns from one condition to another. We apply our method on two neurons recorded from the primary motor cortex area of a monkey's brain while performing a sequence of reaching tasks.

  2. Linking susceptibility genes and pathogenesis mechanisms using mouse models of systemic lupus erythematosus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crampton, Steve P.; Morawski, Peter A.; Bolland, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) represents a challenging autoimmune disease from a clinical perspective because of its varied forms of presentation. Although broad-spectrum steroids remain the standard treatment for SLE, they have many side effects and only provide temporary relief from the symptoms of the disease. Thus, gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic traits and biological pathways that confer susceptibility to SLE will help in the design of more targeted and effective therapeutics. Both human genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and investigations using a variety of mouse models of SLE have been valuable for the identification of the genes and pathways involved in pathogenesis. In this Review, we link human susceptibility genes for SLE with biological pathways characterized in mouse models of lupus, and discuss how the mechanistic insights gained could advance drug discovery for the disease. PMID:25147296

  3. Linking susceptibility genes and pathogenesis mechanisms using mouse models of systemic lupus erythematosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve P. Crampton

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE represents a challenging autoimmune disease from a clinical perspective because of its varied forms of presentation. Although broad-spectrum steroids remain the standard treatment for SLE, they have many side effects and only provide temporary relief from the symptoms of the disease. Thus, gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic traits and biological pathways that confer susceptibility to SLE will help in the design of more targeted and effective therapeutics. Both human genome-wide association studies (GWAS and investigations using a variety of mouse models of SLE have been valuable for the identification of the genes and pathways involved in pathogenesis. In this Review, we link human susceptibility genes for SLE with biological pathways characterized in mouse models of lupus, and discuss how the mechanistic insights gained could advance drug discovery for the disease.

  4. Physical characteristics of shrub and conifer fuels for fire behavior models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan R. Gallacher; Thomas H. Fletcher; Victoria Lansinger; Sydney Hansen; Taylor Ellsworth; David R. Weise

    2017-01-01

    The physical properties and dimensions of foliage are necessary inputs for some fire spread models. Currently, almost no data exist on these plant characteristics to fill this need. In this report, we measured the physical properties and dimensions of the foliage from 10 live shrub and conifer fuels throughout a 1-year period. We developed models to predict relative...

  5. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system--FUEL subsystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Burgan; Richard C. Rothermel

    1984-01-01

    This manual documents the fuel modeling procedures of BEHAVE--a state-of-the-art wildland fire behavior prediction system. Described are procedures for collecting fuel data, using the data with the program, and testing and adjusting the fuel model.

  6. Modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching at Fire Island (NY) during hurricane Sandy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vet, P.L.M.; McCall, R.T.; Den Bieman, J.P.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ormondt, M.

    2015-01-01

    In 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused a breach at Fire Island (NY, USA), near Pelican Island. This paper aims at modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching processes that occured during the hurricane event at this stretch of coast with the numerical model XBeach. By using the default settings, the

  7. Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...

  8. Fire science at LLNL: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, H.K. (ed.)

    1990-03-01

    This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)

  9. Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2014-01-01

    USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures

  10. Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures.

  11. Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.

    Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar

  12. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-11-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  13. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-01-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  14. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  15. Cancer susceptibility and reproductive trade-offs: a model of the evolution of cancer defences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddy, Amy M; Kokko, Hanna; Breden, Felix; Wilkinson, Gerald S; Aktipis, C Athena

    2015-07-19

    The factors influencing cancer susceptibility and why it varies across species are major open questions in the field of cancer biology. One underexplored source of variation in cancer susceptibility may arise from trade-offs between reproductive competitiveness (e.g. sexually selected traits, earlier reproduction and higher fertility) and cancer defence. We build a model that contrasts the probabilistic onset of cancer with other, extrinsic causes of mortality and use it to predict that intense reproductive competition will lower cancer defences and increase cancer incidence. We explore the trade-off between cancer defences and intraspecific competition across different extrinsic mortality conditions and different levels of trade-off intensity, and find the largest effect of competition on cancer in species where low extrinsic mortality combines with strong trade-offs. In such species, selection to delay cancer and selection to outcompete conspecifics are both strong, and the latter conflicts with the former. We discuss evidence for the assumed trade-off between reproductive competitiveness and cancer susceptibility. Sexually selected traits such as ornaments or large body size require high levels of cell proliferation and appear to be associated with greater cancer susceptibility. Similar associations exist for female traits such as continuous egg-laying in domestic hens and earlier reproductive maturity. Trade-offs between reproduction and cancer defences may be instantiated by a variety of mechanisms, including higher levels of growth factors and hormones, less efficient cell-cycle control and less DNA repair, or simply a larger number of cell divisions (relevant when reproductive success requires large body size or rapid reproductive cycles). These mechanisms can affect intra- and interspecific variation in cancer susceptibility arising from rapid cell proliferation during reproductive maturation, intrasexual competition and reproduction. © 2015 The Author

  16. Neural Network-Based Model for Landslide Susceptibility and Soil Longitudinal Profile Analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrokhzad, F.; Barari, Amin; Choobbasti, A. J.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to create an empirical model for assessing the landslide risk potential at Savadkouh Azad University, which is located in the rural surroundings of Savadkouh, about 5 km from the city of Pol-Sefid in northern Iran. The soil longitudinal profile of the city of Babol......, located 25 km from the Caspian Sea, also was predicted with an artificial neural network (ANN). A multilayer perceptron neural network model was applied to the landslide area and was used to analyze specific elements in the study area that contributed to previous landsliding events. The ANN models were...... studies in landslide susceptibility zonation....

  17. Advanced char burnout models for the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Severin; S. Wirtz; V. Scherer [Ruhr-University, Bochum (Germany). Institute of Energy Plant Technology (LEAT)

    2005-07-01

    The numerical simulation of coal combustion processes is widely used as an efficient means to predict burner or system behaviour. In this paper an approach to improve CFD simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers with advanced coal combustion models is presented. In simple coal combustion models, first order Arrhenius rate equations are used for devolatilization and char burnout. The accuracy of such simple models is sufficient for the basic aspects of heat release. The prediction of carbon-in-ash is one aspect of special interest in the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers. To determine the carbon-in-ash levels in the fly ash of coal fired furnaces, the char burnout model has to be more detailed. It was tested, in how far changing operating conditions affect the carbon-in-ash prediction of the simulation. To run several test cases in a short time, a simplified cellnet model was applied. To use a cellnet model for simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers, it was coupled with a Lagrangian particle model, used in CFD simulations, too. 18 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  18. The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Scarpa

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle t...

  19. The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Scarpa

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle typical problems in data available to the companies, like the presence of franchises, which are treated as censored data.

  20. Manifestation of a neuro-fuzzy model to produce landslide susceptibility map using remote sensing data derived parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Biswajeet; Lee, Saro; Buchroithner, Manfred

    Landslides are the most common natural hazards in Malaysia. Preparation of landslide suscep-tibility maps is important for engineering geologists and geomorphologists. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. In this study, a new attempt is tried to produce landslide susceptibility map of a part of Cameron Valley of Malaysia. This paper develops an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based on a geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping. To ob-tain the neuro-fuzzy relations for producing the landslide susceptibility map, landslide locations were identified from interpretation of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite images, field surveys and historical inventory reports. Landslide conditioning factors such as slope, plan curvature, distance to drainage lines, soil texture, lithology, and distance to lineament were extracted from topographic, soil, and lineament maps. Landslide susceptible areas were analyzed by the ANFIS model and mapped using the conditioning factors. Furthermore, we applied various membership functions (MFs) and fuzzy relations to produce landslide suscep-tibility maps. The prediction performance of the susceptibility map is checked by considering actual landslides in the study area. Results show that, triangular, trapezoidal, and polynomial MFs were the best individual MFs for modelling landslide susceptibility maps (86

  1. Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.

    2013-02-01

    Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local

  2. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  3. Ecological modeling of pollutants in accidental fire at the landfill waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanov Sonja B.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper presents tyre as flammable material and some examples of tyre fires in the world. Uncontrolled tyre fires produce a lot of smoke and air pollutants, including benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Great heat leads to the generation of pyrolytic oil which, when mixed with the fire extinguishing agent, contaminates the surrounding soil, surface water and underground water. Paper analyzes and presents in particular the emission factors of incomplete burning of waste car tyres. Metal dust emissions have been presented, volatile organic compund (VOC emissions, slightly volatile organic compound (SVOC emissions and emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Evaluation of the effect on the air quality has been graphically presented by modelling of uncotrolled tyre burning by using EPA "SCREEN 3 MODEL".

  4. Improved modelling of sodium-spray fires and sodium-combustion aerosol chemical evolution - 15488

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathe, E.; Kissane, M.; Petitprez, D.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the Generation IV Initiative, the consequences of a severe-accident in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) must be studied. Being pyrophoric, sodium will burn upon contact with air in a containment creating toxic aerosols and we must take into account these fire aerosols when assessing the source term. We have developed a numerical simulation named NATRAC to calculate the mass of aerosols produced during a spray fire in a SFR severe accident. The results show that the mass of oxide aerosols can involve more than 60% of the ejected sodium. In a second part we have developed a numerical simulation named STARK based on the Cooper model that models the physico-chemical transformations of the aerosols. However, this model has never been validated and the literature does not permit to do so. In these conditions, we have designed and performed our own experiment ESSTIA to obtain the missing values of the parameters that govern Cooper model. The modified Cooper model we propose with the new parameters reproduces correctly the ESSTIA experimental data. The only parameter that has not yet been measured is the tortuosity of the sodium-fire aerosols surface layers. A dedicated experiment using real sodium-fire aerosols could eliminate any doubts about the uncertainty of the proposed Cooper model

  5. Fire exposed facades: Numerical modelling of the LEPIR2 testing facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dréan Virginie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available LEPIR2 testing facility is aimed to evaluate the fire behaviour of construction solutions implemented on facade according with the experimental evaluation required by the French Technical Specification 249 (IT249 of the safety regulation. It aims to limit the risks of fire spreading by facades to upper levels. This facility involves a wood crib fire in the lower compartment of a full scale two levels high structure. Flames are coming outside from the compartment through windows openings and develop in front of the facade. Computational fluids dynamics simulations are carried out with the FDS code (Fire Dynamics Simulator for two full-scale experiments performed by Efectis France laboratory. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of numerical model to reproduce quantitative results in terms of gas temperatures and heat flux on the tested facade for further evaluation of fire performances of an insulation solution. When experimental results are compared with numerical calculations, good agreement is found out for every quantities and each test. The proposed models for wood cribs and geometry give correct thermal loads and flames shape near the tested facade.

  6. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  7. Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (???50 000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of fine

  8. Application of an advanced fuzzy logic model for landslide susceptibility analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biswajeet Pradhan

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate the susceptibility of landslides at Klang valley area, Malaysia, using a Geographic Information System (GIS and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and from field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. A data derived model (frequency ratio and a knowledge-derived model (fuzzy operator were combined for landslide susceptibility analysis. The nine factors that influence landslide occurrence were extracted from the database and the frequency ratio coefficient for each factor was computed. Using the factors and the identified landslide, the fuzzy membership values were calculated. Then fuzzy algebraic operators were applied to the fuzzy membership values for landslide susceptibility mapping. Finally, the produced map was verified by comparing with existing landslide locations for calculating prediction accuracy. Among the fuzzy operators, in the case in which the gamma operator (l = 0.8 showed the best accuracy (91% while the case in which the fuzzy algebraic product was applied showed the worst accuracy (79%.

  9. Photochemical model estimated fire impacts on ozone and aerosol evaluated with field studies and routine data sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Highly instrumented field studies provide a unique opportunity to evaluate multiple aspects of photochemical grid model representation of fire emissions, dispersion, and chemical evolution. Fuel information and burn area for a specific fire coupled with near-fire and downwind chemical measurements provides information needed to constrain model predicted fire plume transport and chemical evolution of important pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) that have deleterious health effects. Most local to regional scale field campaigns to date have made relatively few transects through plumes from fires with well characterized fuel type and consumption. While more comprehensive field studies are being planned for 2018 and beyond (WE-CAN, FIREX, FIRE-CHEM, and FASMEE), existing measurement data from multiple field campaigns including 2013 SEAC4RS, satellite data, and routine surface networks are used to assess how a regulatory modeling system captures fire impacts on local to regional scale ozone and PM2.5. Key aspects of the regulatory modeling system include fire location and burn area from SMARTFIRE2, emissions from BlueSky framework, and predictions of ambient O3 and PM2.5 from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical transport model. A comparison of model estimated O3 from specific fires with routine surface measurements at rural locations in proximity to the 2013 Rim fire, 2011 Wallow fire, and 2011 Flint Hills fires suggest the modeling system over-estimates smoke impacts on hourly ozone. Sensitivity simulations where solar radiation and photolysis rates are more aggressively attenuated by smoke reduced O3 predictions but did not ameliorate the over prediction bias. PM2.5 organic carbon tends to be overpredicted at rural surface sites downwind from the 2011 Flint Hills prescribed fires while results were mixed at rural sites downwind of the 2013 Rim fire and 2011 Wallow fire suggesting differences in fuel characterization (e

  10. Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai

    2017-04-01

    Most of the landslide cases in Taiwan were triggered by rainfall or earthquake events. The heavy rainfall in the typhoon seasons, from June to October, causes the landslide hazard more serious. Renai Towhship is of the most large landslide cases after 2009 Typhoon Morakot (from Aug. 5 to Aug. 10, 2009) in Taiwan. Around 2,744 landslides cases with the total landslide area of 21.5 km2 (landslide ratio =1.8%), including 26 large landslide cases, induced after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Towhship. The area of each large landslides case is more than 0.1 km2, and the area of the largest case is around 0.96 km2. 58% of large landslide cases locate in the area with metamorphosed sandstone. The mean slope of 26 large landslide cases ranges from 15 degree to 56 degree, and the accumulated rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot ranges from 530 mm to 937 mm. Three methods, including frequency ratio method (abbreviated as FR), weights of evidence method (abbreviated as WOE), and logistic regression method (abbreviated as LR), are used in this study to establish the landslides susceptibility in the Renai Township, Nantou County, Taiwan. Eight landslide related-factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, land use, distance to drainage, distance to fault, accumulation rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot, are used to establish the landslide susceptibility models in this study. The landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot is also used to test the model performance in this study. The mean accumulated rainfall in Renai Township during 2009 typhoon Morakot was around 735 mm with the maximum 1-hr, 3-hrs, and 6-hrs rainfall intensity of 44 mm/1-hr, 106 mm/3-hrs and 204 mm/6-hrs, respectively. The range of original susceptibility values established by three methods are 4.0 to 20.9 for FR, -33.8 to -16.1 for WOE, and -41.7 to 5.7 for LR, and the mean landslide susceptibility value are 8.0, -24.6 and 0.38, respectively. The AUC values are 0.815 for FR, 0.816 for WOE, and 0

  11. Differential in vivo gene expression of major Leptospira proteins in resistant or susceptible animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Mariko; Soupé, Marie-Estelle; Becam, Jérôme; Goarant, Cyrille

    2012-09-01

    Transcripts of Leptospira 16S rRNA, FlaB, LigB, LipL21, LipL32, LipL36, LipL41, and OmpL37 were quantified in the blood of susceptible (hamsters) and resistant (mice) animal models of leptospirosis. We first validated adequate reference genes and then evaluated expression patterns in vivo compared to in vitro cultures. LipL32 expression was downregulated in vivo and differentially regulated in resistant and susceptible animals. FlaB expression was also repressed in mice but not in hamsters. In contrast, LigB and OmpL37 were upregulated in vivo. Thus, we demonstrated that a virulent strain of Leptospira differentially adapts its gene expression in the blood of infected animals.

  12. IDENTIFICATION OF LANDSLIDES SUSCEPTIBILITY IN THE DOBRIC CATCHMENT AREA USING THE FREQUENCY RATE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROXANA VĂIDEAN

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The landslides susceptibility of the Dobric catchment area (Ilişua river. The territorial geomorfological investigation focuses mainly on the analysis of the present situation, as context of future events occurrence. The previous evolutionary context is secondary in place due also to the particular attention it has received so far. The significance of the knowledge regarding the present events and their evolution is explicit in the attempt to mitigate their impact on the built area and on the resources. The identification of areas characterized by maximum susceptibility in the landslides occurrence is absolutely necessary. The method which makes the identification of these areas possible is none other than the method considering the conditional factors, as well as the spatial distribution of the events that have already occurred. In this regard, the use of the frequency rate model is considered to be ideal.

  13. Identifying and quantifying energy savings on fired plant using low cost modelling techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tucker, Robert; Ward, John

    2012-01-01

    Research highlights: → Furnace models based on the zone method for radiation calculation are described. → Validated steady-state and transient models have been developed. → We show how these simple models can identify the best options for saving energy. → High emissivity coatings predicted to give performance enhancement on a fired heater. → Optimal heat recovery strategies on a steel reheating furnace are predicted. -- Abstract: Combustion in fired heaters, boilers and furnaces often accounts for the major energy consumption on industrial processes. Small improvements in efficiency can result in large reductions in energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, and operating costs. This paper will describe some useful low cost modelling techniques based on the zone method to help identify energy saving opportunities on high temperature fuel-fired process plant. The zone method has for many decades, been successfully applied to small batch furnaces through to large steel-reheating furnaces, glass tanks, boilers and fired heaters on petrochemical plant. Zone models can simulate both steady-state furnace operation and more complex transient operation typical of a production environment. These models can be used to predict thermal efficiency and performance, and more importantly, to assist in identifying and predicting energy saving opportunities from such measures as: ·Improving air/fuel ratio and temperature controls. ·Improved insulation. ·Use of oxygen or oxygen enrichment. ·Air preheating via flue gas heat recovery. ·Modification to furnace geometry and hearth loading. There is also increasing interest in the application of refractory coatings for increasing surface radiation in fired plant. All of the techniques can yield savings ranging from a few percent upwards and can deliver rapid financial payback, but their evaluation often requires robust and reliable models in order to increase confidence in making financial investment decisions. This paper gives

  14. Handling high predictor dimensionality in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models through LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model

    KAUST Repository

    Camilo, Daniela Castro

    2017-08-30

    Grid-based landslide susceptibility models at regional scales are computationally demanding when using a fine grid resolution. Conversely, Slope-Unit (SU) based susceptibility models allows to investigate the same areas offering two main advantages: 1) a smaller computational burden and 2) a more geomorphologically-oriented interpretation. In this contribution, we generate SU-based landslide susceptibility for the Sado Island in Japan. This island is characterized by deep-seated landslides which we assume can only limitedly be explained by the first two statistical moments (mean and variance) of a set of predictors within each slope unit. As a consequence, in a nested experiment, we first analyse the distributions of a set of continuous predictors within each slope unit computing the standard deviation and quantiles from 0.05 to 0.95 with a step of 0.05. These are then used as predictors for landslide susceptibility. In addition, we combine shape indices for polygon features and the normalized extent of each class belonging to the outcropping lithology in a given SU. This procedure significantly enlarges the size of the predictor hyperspace, thus producing a high level of slope-unit characterization. In a second step, we adopt a LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model to shrink back the predictor set to a sensible and interpretable number, carrying only the most significant covariates in the models. As a result, we are able to document the geomorphic features (e.g., 95% quantile of Elevation and 5% quantile of Plan Curvature) that primarily control the SU-based susceptibility within the test area while producing high predictive performances. The implementation of the statistical analyses are included in a parallelized R script (LUDARA) which is here made available for the community to replicate analogous experiments.

  15. Handling high predictor dimensionality in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models through LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model

    KAUST Repository

    Camilo, Daniela Castro; Lombardo, Luigi; Mai, Paul Martin; Dou, Jie; Huser, Raphaë l

    2017-01-01

    Grid-based landslide susceptibility models at regional scales are computationally demanding when using a fine grid resolution. Conversely, Slope-Unit (SU) based susceptibility models allows to investigate the same areas offering two main advantages: 1) a smaller computational burden and 2) a more geomorphologically-oriented interpretation. In this contribution, we generate SU-based landslide susceptibility for the Sado Island in Japan. This island is characterized by deep-seated landslides which we assume can only limitedly be explained by the first two statistical moments (mean and variance) of a set of predictors within each slope unit. As a consequence, in a nested experiment, we first analyse the distributions of a set of continuous predictors within each slope unit computing the standard deviation and quantiles from 0.05 to 0.95 with a step of 0.05. These are then used as predictors for landslide susceptibility. In addition, we combine shape indices for polygon features and the normalized extent of each class belonging to the outcropping lithology in a given SU. This procedure significantly enlarges the size of the predictor hyperspace, thus producing a high level of slope-unit characterization. In a second step, we adopt a LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model to shrink back the predictor set to a sensible and interpretable number, carrying only the most significant covariates in the models. As a result, we are able to document the geomorphic features (e.g., 95% quantile of Elevation and 5% quantile of Plan Curvature) that primarily control the SU-based susceptibility within the test area while producing high predictive performances. The implementation of the statistical analyses are included in a parallelized R script (LUDARA) which is here made available for the community to replicate analogous experiments.

  16. The development of thermal models for a UF6 transport container in a fully engulfing fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomas, J.; Clayton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the recent development work on a lumped-parameter model known as BURST3 created by BNFL to examine the physics of the heating problem. The predictions of this model were compared with the results obtained by Mallett in 1965, in which small (3.5, 5 and 8 inch diameter) cylinders were exposed to a fire. In general, the comparison is good; however there are some differences - particularly on the speed of response of the wall temperature to the heating from the fire. The model was further modified to allow conditions of partial and full insulation to be investigated. The partially insulated condition simulates the Japanese proposal to insulate the ends of the container only, leaving the cylinder bare between the stiffening rings. The results obtained with our modified model support the predictions of Abe et al that the partially-insulated cylinder will survive the fire test. The analysis of a completely insulated container has indicated that a minimal thickness of insulation provides sufficient protection to allow survival in the fire test. A discussion of additional improvements to the lumped-parameter model are presented. (J.P.N.)

  17. Use of a field model to analyze probable fire environments encountered within the complex geometries of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Usher, J.L.; Singhal, A.K.; Tam, L.T.

    1985-08-01

    A fire in a nuclear power plant (NPP) can damage equipment needed to safely operate the plant and thereby either directly cause an accident or else reduce the plant's margin of safety. The development of a field-model fire code to analyze the probable fire environments encountered within NPP is discussed. A set of fire tests carried out under the aegis of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is described. The results of these tests are then utilized to validate the field model

  18. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  19. Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based statistical models and Remote sensing data in tropical environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahabi, Himan; Hashim, Mazlan

    2015-04-22

    This research presents the results of the GIS-based statistical models for generation of landslide susceptibility mapping using geographic information system (GIS) and remote-sensing data for Cameron Highlands area in Malaysia. Ten factors including slope, aspect, soil, lithology, NDVI, land cover, distance to drainage, precipitation, distance to fault, and distance to road were extracted from SAR data, SPOT 5 and WorldView-1 images. The relationships between the detected landslide locations and these ten related factors were identified by using GIS-based statistical models including analytical hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) models. The landslide inventory map which has a total of 92 landslide locations was created based on numerous resources such as digital aerial photographs, AIRSAR data, WorldView-1 images, and field surveys. Then, 80% of the landslide inventory was used for training the statistical models and the remaining 20% was used for validation purpose. The validation results using the Relative landslide density index (R-index) and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) demonstrated that the SMCE model (accuracy is 96%) is better in prediction than AHP (accuracy is 91%) and WLC (accuracy is 89%) models. These landslide susceptibility maps would be useful for hazard mitigation purpose and regional planning.

  20. Contrasting dynamic spin susceptibility models and their relation to high-temperature superconductivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuettler, H.; Norman, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    We compare the normal-state resistivities ρ and the critical temperatures T c for superconducting d x 2 -y 2 pairing due to antiferromagnetic (AF) spin fluctuation exchange in the context of two phenomenological dynamical spin susceptibility models for the cuprate high-T c materials, one based on fits to NMR data on Y-Ba-Cu-O (YBCO) proposed by Millis, Monien, and Pines (MMP) and Monthoux and Pines (MP), and the other based on fits to neutron scattering data on YBCO proposed by Radtke, Ullah, Levin, and Norman (RULN). Assuming comparable electronic bandwidths and resistivities in both models, we show that the RULN model gives a much lower d-wave T c (approx-lt 20 K) than the MMP model (with T c ∼100 K). We demonstrate that these profound differences in the T c close-quote s arise from fundamental differences in the spectral weight distributions of the two model susceptibilities at high (>100 meV) frequencies and are not primarily caused by differences in the calculational techniques employed by MP and RULN. Further neutron scattering experiments, to explore the spectral weight distribution at all wave vectors over a sufficiently large excitation energy range, will thus be of crucial importance to resolve the question whether AF spin fluctuation exchange can provide a viable mechanism to account for high-T c superconductivity. Limitations of the Migdal-Eliashberg approach in such models will be discussed. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  1. A precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility model for natural gas transmission pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Jason P. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Valencia, California (United States); Slayter, David L.; Hitchcock, Chris S. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Walnut Creek, California (United States); Lee, Chih-Hung [Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Gas Systems Integrity Management, Walnut Creek, California (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Landslides related to heavy rainfall can cause extensive damage to natural gas transmission pipelines. Fugro William Lettis and Associates Inc. have developed and implemented a geographic information system (GIS) model that evaluates near real-time precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility. The model incorporates state-wide precipitation data and geologically-based landslide classifications to produce rapid landslide risk evaluation for Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PGandE) gas transmission system during winter rain storms in California. The precipitation data include pre-storm event quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and post-storm event quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The geologic classifications are based on slope, susceptible geologic formations, and the locations of historic or known landslide occurrences. Currently the model is calibrated using qualitative measures. This paper describes the development of the model algorithm and input data, model results, calibration efforts, and the on-going research and landslide collection warranted for continued refinement of the model.

  2. An Ensemble Model for Co-Seismic Landslide Susceptibility Using GIS and Random Forest Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchita Shrestha

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake of 25 April 2015 triggered thousands of landslides in the central part of the Nepal Himalayas. The main goal of this study was to generate an ensemble-based map of co-seismic landslide susceptibility in Sindhupalchowk District using model comparison and combination strands. A total of 2194 co-seismic landslides were identified and were randomly split into 1536 (~70%, to train data for establishing the model, and the remaining 658 (~30% for the validation of the model. Frequency ratio, evidential belief function, and weight of evidence methods were applied and compared using 11 different causative factors (peak ground acceleration, epicenter proximity, fault proximity, geology, elevation, slope, plan curvature, internal relief, drainage proximity, stream power index, and topographic wetness index to prepare the landslide susceptibility map. An ensemble of random forest was then used to overcome the various prediction limitations of the individual models. The success rates and prediction capabilities were critically compared using the area under the curve (AUC of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC. By synthesizing the results of the various models into a single score, the ensemble model improved accuracy and provided considerably more realistic prediction capacities (91% than the frequency ratio (81.2%, evidential belief function (83.5% methods, and weight of evidence (80.1%.

  3. Comparative Evaluation of Five Fire Emissions Datasets Using the GEOS-5 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, C. M.; Pan, X.; Chin, M.; Bian, H.; Darmenov, A.; Ellison, L.; Kucsera, T. L.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Petrenko, M. M.; Wang, J.; Ge, C.; Wiedinmyer, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfires and other types of biomass burning affect most vegetated parts of the globe, contributing 40% of the annual global atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, as well as significant amounts of numerous trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane. Many of these smoke constituents affect the air quality and/or the climate system directly or through their interactions with solar radiation and cloud properties. However, fire emissions are poorly constrained in global and regional models, resulting in high levels of uncertainty in understanding their real impacts. With the advent of satellite remote sensing of fires and burned areas in the last couple of decades, a number of fire emissions products have become available for use in relevant research and applications. In this study, we evaluated five global biomass burning emissions datasets, namely: (1) GFEDv3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1); (2) GFEDv4s (Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires); (3) FEERv1 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0); (4) QFEDv2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4); and (5) Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) version 1.5. Overall, the spatial patterns of biomass burning emissions from these inventories are similar, although the magnitudes of the emissions can be noticeably different. The inventories derived using top-down approaches (QFEDv2.4 and FEERv1) are larger than those based on bottom-up approaches. For example, global organic carbon (OC) emissions in 2008 are: QFEDv2.4 (51.93 Tg), FEERv1 (28.48 Tg), FINN v1.5 (19.48 Tg), GFEDv3.1 (15.65 Tg) and GFEDv4s (13.76 Tg); representing a factor of 3.7 difference between the largest and the least. We also used all five biomass-burning emissions datasets to conduct aerosol simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5), and compared the resulting aerosol optical depth (AOD) output to the corresponding retrievals from MODIS

  4. Assessing the outstanding 2003 fire events in Portugal with a Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia; Camara, Carlos; Montávez, Juan Pedro

    2013-04-01

    The heatwave that struck western Iberia in the early days of August 2003 was characterized by record high values of both maximum (47.3°C) and minimum (30.6°c) temperatures in Portugal, associated with extremely low humidity levels and relatively intense wind speed (Trigo et al., 2006). These conditions triggered the most devastating sequence of large fires ever registered in Portugal. The estimated total burnt area was about 450.000 ha, including 280.000 ha of forest (Pereira et al., 2011). The outstanding total burnt area value corresponds to roughly 5% of the Portuguese territory, and represents approximately twice the previous maximum observed in 1998 (~220.000 ha), and about four times the long-term average observed between 1980 and 2004. Here we characterise this unusual episode using meteorological fields obtained from both observations and a regional climate model. In this work we use the longest (49-years) high-resolution regional climate simulation available driven by reanalysis data spanning from 1959 to 2007 and covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. This long run was obtained using the MM5 model with a spatial resolution of 10 km. Using this high spatial and temporal resolution we have computed the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System to produce hourly values of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behaviour (van Wagner, 1987). We show the temporal evolution of high resolution patterns for several fire related variables during the most important days for triggering new fires (the first week of August 2003). Besides the absolute value of Tmax, Tmin, wind (speed and direction), relative humidity and FWI we also evaluate the corresponding anomalies of these fields, obtained after removing the long-term smoothed daily climatology. Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. (2011) "The History and Characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database

  5. Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costafreda-Aumedes, S; Vega-Garcia, C; Comas, C

    2018-07-01

    Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re

  6. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  7. Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: Avian responses to prescribed fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Saab, V.A.; Lehmkuhl, J.F.; Block, W.M.; Sauer, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife

  8. MASTER: a model to improve and standardize clinical breakpoints for antimicrobial susceptibility testing using forecast probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöchliger, Nicolas; Keller, Peter M; Böttger, Erik C; Hombach, Michael

    2017-09-01

    The procedure for setting clinical breakpoints (CBPs) for antimicrobial susceptibility has been poorly standardized with respect to population data, pharmacokinetic parameters and clinical outcome. Tools to standardize CBP setting could result in improved antibiogram forecast probabilities. We propose a model to estimate probabilities for methodological categorization errors and defined zones of methodological uncertainty (ZMUs), i.e. ranges of zone diameters that cannot reliably be classified. The impact of ZMUs on methodological error rates was used for CBP optimization. The model distinguishes theoretical true inhibition zone diameters from observed diameters, which suffer from methodological variation. True diameter distributions are described with a normal mixture model. The model was fitted to observed inhibition zone diameters of clinical Escherichia coli strains. Repeated measurements for a quality control strain were used to quantify methodological variation. For 9 of 13 antibiotics analysed, our model predicted error rates of  0.1% for ampicillin, cefoxitin, cefuroxime and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid. Increasing the susceptible CBP (cefoxitin) and introducing ZMUs (ampicillin, cefuroxime, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid) decreased error rates to < 0.1%. ZMUs contained low numbers of isolates for ampicillin and cefuroxime (3% and 6%), whereas the ZMU for amoxicillin/clavulanic acid contained 41% of all isolates and was considered not practical. We demonstrate that CBPs can be improved and standardized by minimizing methodological categorization error rates. ZMUs may be introduced if an intermediate zone is not appropriate for pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic or drug dosing reasons. Optimized CBPs will provide a standardized antibiotic susceptibility testing interpretation at a defined level of probability. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For

  9. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cuevas Rivera

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

  10. Dayton Aircraft Cabin Fire Model, Version 3, Volume I. Physical Description.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    contact to any surface directly above a burning element, provided that the current flame length makes contact possible. For fires originating on the...no extension of the flames horizontally beneath the surface is considered. The equation for computing the flame length is presented in Section 5. For...high as 0.3. The values chosen for DACFIR3 are 0.15 for Ec and 0.10 for E P. The Steward model is also used to compute flame length , hf, for the fire

  11. Modeling the differentiation of A- and C-type baroreceptor firing patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturdy, Jacob; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Olufsen, Mette

    2017-01-01

    The baroreceptor neurons serve as the primary transducers of blood pressure for the autonomic nervous system and are thus critical in enabling the body to respond effectively to changes in blood pressure. These neurons can be separated into two types (A and C) based on the myelination...... of their axons and their distinct firing patterns elicited in response to specific pressure stimuli. This study has developed a comprehensive model of the afferent baroreceptor discharge built on physiological knowledge of arterial wall mechanics, firing rate responses to controlled pressure stimuli, and ion...

  12. Physical characterization of biomass fuels prepared for suspension firing in utility boilers for CFD modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosendahl, Lasse; Yin, Chungen; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2007-01-01

    A sample of 1.2 kg Danish wheat straw (Jutland, 1997) prepared for suspension firing in a PF boiler has been analyzed for the purpose of generating size and shape distribution functions applicable to numerical modelling of combustion processes involving biomass, characterised by highly anisotropic...... shapes. The sample is subdivided by straw type, and coherent size, type and mass distribution parameters are reported for the entire sample. This type of data is necessary in order to use CFD reliably as a design and retrofit tool for co-firing biomass with fossil fuels, as the combustion processes...

  13. Reducing the computational requirements for simulating tunnel fires by combining multiscale modelling and multiple processor calculation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Rein, Guillermo; Colella, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Multiscale modelling of tunnel fires that uses a coupled 3D (fire area) and 1D (the rest of the tunnel) model is seen as the solution to the numerical problem of the large domains associated with long tunnels. The present study demonstrates the feasibility of the implementation of this method...... in FDS version 6.0, a widely used fire-specific, open source CFD software. Furthermore, it compares the reduction in simulation time given by multiscale modelling with the one given by the use of multiple processor calculation. This was done using a 1200m long tunnel with a rectangular cross......-section as a demonstration case. The multiscale implementation consisted of placing a 30MW fire in the centre of a 400m long 3D domain, along with two 400m long 1D ducts on each side of it, that were again bounded by two nodes each. A fixed volume flow was defined in the upstream duct and the two models were coupled...

  14. Cortical Network Models of Firing Rates in the Resting and Active States Predict BOLD Responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxwell R Bennett

    Full Text Available Measurements of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD signals have produced some surprising observations. One is that their amplitude is proportional to the entire activity in a region of interest and not just the fluctuations in this activity. Another is that during sleep and anesthesia the average BOLD correlations between regions of interest decline as the activity declines. Mechanistic explanations of these phenomena are described here using a cortical network model consisting of modules with excitatory and inhibitory neurons, taken as regions of cortical interest, each receiving excitatory inputs from outside the network, taken as subcortical driving inputs in addition to extrinsic (intermodular connections, such as provided by associational fibers. The model shows that the standard deviation of the firing rate is proportional to the mean frequency of the firing when the extrinsic connections are decreased, so that the mean BOLD signal is proportional to both as is observed experimentally. The model also shows that if these extrinsic connections are decreased or the frequency of firing reaching the network from the subcortical driving inputs is decreased, or both decline, there is a decrease in the mean firing rate in the modules accompanied by decreases in the mean BOLD correlations between the modules, consistent with the observed changes during NREM sleep and under anesthesia. Finally, the model explains why a transient increase in the BOLD signal in a cortical area, due to a transient subcortical input, gives rises to responses throughout the cortex as observed, with these responses mediated by the extrinsic (intermodular connections.

  15. Fire simulation in large compartments with a fire model 'CFAST'. Part 1. Survey of applicability for analyzing air-temperature profile in compartments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Sano, Tadashi

    2012-01-01

    The basic performance of numerical analysis of air-temperature profiles in large-scale compartments by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings is examined. Special attentions are paid to the dependence of the setting boundary conditions and the choosing model parameters. The simulations carried out under the denkyoken-test conditions, in which the air-temperature profiles in compartments and the heat-release rate of a fire have been precisely measured, indicate that the CFAST has a capability to appropriately represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment which includes the source of a fire, by applying the proper boundary conditions, i.e., time-histories of air-temperature in the upper (high temperature) layer given by the CFAST agree well with those of observations. The sensitivity analysis in the simulations also reveals that the appropriately setting of the boundary-conditions, especially for the heat-release ratio from a fire and the heat-transfer rate from walls of compartments to ambient air is vital. Contrary to this, the impacts of choosing numerical parameters on the air-temperature analysis are quite small. (author)

  16. Model fire tests on polyphosphazene rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber foams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widenor, W. M.

    1978-01-01

    A video tape record of model room fire tests was shown, comparing polyphosphazene (P-N) rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber closed-cell foams as interior finish thermal insulation under conditions directly translatable to an actual fire situation. Flashover did not occur with the P-N foam and only moderate amounts of low density smoke were formed, whereas with the PVC/nitrile foam, flashover occurred quickly and large volumes of high density smoke were emitted. The P-N foam was produced in a pilot plant under carefully controlled conditions. The PVC/nitrile foam was a commercial product. A major phase of the overall program involved fire tests on P-N open-cell foam cushioning.

  17. Control of clustered action potential firing in a mathematical model of entorhinal cortex stellate cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, Luke; Wedgwood, Kyle; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Brown, Jon T; Goodfellow, Marc

    2018-07-14

    The entorhinal cortex is a crucial component of our memory and spatial navigation systems and is one of the first areas to be affected in dementias featuring tau pathology, such as Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia. Electrophysiological recordings from principle cells of medial entorhinal cortex (layer II stellate cells, mEC-SCs) demonstrate a number of key identifying properties including subthreshold oscillations in the theta (4-12 Hz) range and clustered action potential firing. These single cell properties are correlated with network activity such as grid firing and coupling between theta and gamma rhythms, suggesting they are important for spatial memory. As such, experimental models of dementia have revealed disruption of organised dorsoventral gradients in clustered action potential firing. To better understand the mechanisms underpinning these different dynamics, we study a conductance based model of mEC-SCs. We demonstrate that the model, driven by extrinsic noise, can capture quantitative differences in clustered action potential firing patterns recorded from experimental models of tau pathology and healthy animals. The differential equation formulation of our model allows us to perform numerical bifurcation analyses in order to uncover the dynamic mechanisms underlying these patterns. We show that clustered dynamics can be understood as subcritical Hopf/homoclinic bursting in a fast-slow system where the slow sub-system is governed by activation of the persistent sodium current and inactivation of the slow A-type potassium current. In the full system, we demonstrate that clustered firing arises via flip bifurcations as conductance parameters are varied. Our model analyses confirm the experimentally suggested hypothesis that the breakdown of clustered dynamics in disease occurs via increases in AHP conductance. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  19. The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

  20. Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation on agricultural terraces of DOURO VALLEY (PORTUGAL), using physically based mathematical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Ana; Bateira, Carlos; Laura, Soares; Fernandes, Joana; Gonçalves, José; Marques, Fernando

    2016-04-01

    The work focuses the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Douro Region agricultural terraces, supported by dry stone walls and earth embankments, using two physically based models. The applied models, SHALSTAB (Montgomery et al.,1994; Dietrich et al., 1995) and SINMAP (PACK et al., 2005), combine an infinite slope stability model with a steady state hydrological model, and both use the following geophysical parameters: cohesion, friction angle, specific weight and soil thickness. The definition of the contributing areas is different in both models. The D∞ methodology used by SINMAP model suggests a great influence of the terraces morphology, providing a much more diffuse flow on the internal flow modelling. The MD8 used in SHALSTAB promotes an important degree of flow concentration, representing an internal flow based on preferential paths of the runoff as the areas more susceptible to saturation processes. The model validation is made through the contingency matrix method (Fawcett, 2006; Raia et al., 2014) and implies the confrontation with the inventory of past landslides. The True Positive Rate shows that SHALSTAB classifies 77% of the landslides on the high susceptibility areas, while SINMAP reaches 90%. The SINMAP has a False Positive Rate (represents the percentage of the slipped area that is classified as unstable but without landslides) of 83% and the SHALSTAB has 67%. The reliability (analyzes the areas that were correctly classified on the total area) of SHALSTAB is better (33% against 18% of SINMAP). Relative to Precision (refers to the ratio of the slipped area correctly classified over the whole area classified as unstable) SHALSTAB has better results (0.00298 against 0.00283 of SINMAP). It was elaborate the index TPR/FPR and better results obtained by SHALSTAB (1.14 against 1.09 of SINMAP). SHALSTAB shows a better performance in the definition of susceptibility most prone areas to instability processes. One of the reasons for the difference of

  1. Structured spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox point process models, with a view to modelling forest fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Diaz-Avalos, Carlos

    Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable fo...... dataset consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent....

  2. A Drosophila model for toxicogenomics: Genetic variation in susceptibility to heavy metal exposure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The genetic factors that give rise to variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins remain largely unexplored. Studies on genetic variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins are challenging in human populations, due to the variety of clinical symptoms and difficulty in determining which symptoms causally result from toxic exposure; uncontrolled environments, often with exposure to multiple toxicants; and difficulty in relating phenotypic effect size to toxic dose, especially when symptoms become manifest with a substantial time lag. Drosophila melanogaster is a powerful model that enables genome-wide studies for the identification of allelic variants that contribute to variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins, since the genetic background, environmental rearing conditions and toxic exposure can be precisely controlled. Here, we used extreme QTL mapping in an outbred population derived from the D. melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel to identify alleles associated with resistance to lead and/or cadmium, two ubiquitous environmental toxins that present serious health risks. We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs associated with variation in resistance to both heavy metals as well as SNPs associated with resistance specific to each of them. The effects of these SNPs were largely sex-specific. We applied mutational and RNAi analyses to 33 candidate genes and functionally validated 28 of them. We constructed networks of candidate genes as blueprints for orthologous networks of human genes. The latter not only provided functional contexts for known human targets of heavy metal toxicity, but also implicated novel candidate susceptibility genes. These studies validate Drosophila as a translational toxicogenomics gene discovery system.

  3. A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

    2015-08-01

    Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

  4. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...

  5. Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

    2018-05-01

    Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high

  6. Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

    2013-12-01

    Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in

  7. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  8. Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

    2010-05-01

    Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations

  9. Implementation and verification of a coupled fire model as a thermal boundary condition within P3/THERMAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hensinger, D.M.; Gritzo, L.A.; Koski, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    A user-defined boundary condition subroutine has been implemented within P3/THERMAL to represent the heat flux between a noncombusting object and an engulfing fire. The heat flux calculations includes a simple 2D fire model in which energy and radiative heat transport equations are solved to produce estimates of the heat fluxes at the fire-object interface. These estimates reflect radiative coupling between a cold object and the flow of hot combustion gases which has been observed in fire experiments. The model uses a database of experimental pool fire measurements for far field boundary conditions and volumetric heat release rates. Taking into account the coupling between a structure and the fire is an improvement over the σT 4 approximation frequently used as a boundary condition for engineered system response and is the preliminary step in the development of a fire model with a predictive capability. This paper describes the implementation of the fire model as a P3/THERMAL boundary condition and presents the results of a verification calculation carried out using the model

  10. Symmetric Anderson impurity model: Magnetic susceptibility, specific heat and Wilson ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalom, Peter; Pokorný, Vladislav; Janiš, Václav

    2018-05-01

    We extend the spin-polarized effective-interaction approximation of the parquet renormalization scheme from Refs. [1,2] applied on the symmetric Anderson model by adding the low-temperature asymptotics of the total energy and the specific heat. We calculate numerically the Wilson ratio and determine analytically its asymptotic value in the strong-coupling limit. We demonstrate in this way that the exponentially small Kondo scale from the strong-coupling regime emerges in qualitatively the same way in the spectral function, magnetic susceptibility and the specific heat.

  11. Evaluation of different machine learning models for predicting and mapping the susceptibility of gully erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Omid; Tahmasebipour, Nasser; Haghizadeh, Ali; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

    2017-12-01

    Gully erosion constitutes a serious problem for land degradation in a wide range of environments. The main objective of this research was to compare the performance of seven state-of-the-art machine learning models (SVM with four kernel types, BP-ANN, RF, and BRT) to model the occurrence of gully erosion in the Kashkan-Poldokhtar Watershed, Iran. In the first step, a gully inventory map consisting of 65 gully polygons was prepared through field surveys. Three different sample data sets (S1, S2, and S3), including both positive and negative cells (70% for training and 30% for validation), were randomly prepared to evaluate the robustness of the models. To model the gully erosion susceptibility, 12 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors. Finally, the goodness-of-fit and prediction skill of the models were evaluated by different criteria, including efficiency percent, kappa coefficient, and the area under the ROC curves (AUC). In terms of accuracy, the RF, RBF-SVM, BRT, and P-SVM models performed excellently both in the degree of fitting and in predictive performance (AUC values well above 0.9), which resulted in accurate predictions. Therefore, these models can be used in other gully erosion studies, as they are capable of rapidly producing accurate and robust gully erosion susceptibility maps (GESMs) for decision-making and soil and water management practices. Furthermore, it was found that performance of RF and RBF-SVM for modelling gully erosion occurrence is quite stable when the learning and validation samples are changed.

  12. A spiking network model of cerebellar Purkinje cells and molecular layer interneurons exhibiting irregular firing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William eLennon

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While the anatomy of the cerebellar microcircuit is well studied, how it implements cerebellar function is not understood. A number of models have been proposed to describe this mechanism but few emphasize the role of the vast network Purkinje cells (PKJs form with the molecular layer interneurons (MLIs – the stellate and basket cells. We propose a model of the MLI-PKJ network composed of simple spiking neurons incorporating the major anatomical and physiological features. In computer simulations, the model reproduces the irregular firing patterns observed in PKJs and MLIs in vitro and a shift toward faster, more regular firing patterns when inhibitory synaptic currents are blocked. In the model, the time between PKJ spikes is shown to be proportional to the amount of feedforward inhibition from an MLI on average. The two key elements of the model are: (1 spontaneously active PKJs and MLIs due to an endogenous depolarizing current, and (2 adherence to known anatomical connectivity along a parasagittal strip of cerebellar cortex. We propose this model to extend previous spiking network models of the cerebellum and for further computational investigation into the role of irregular firing and MLIs in cerebellar learning and function.

  13. Optimizing landslide susceptibility zonation: Effects of DEM spatial resolution and slope unit delineation on logistic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlögel, R.; Marchesini, I.; Alvioli, M.; Reichenbach, P.; Rossi, M.; Malet, J.-P.

    2018-01-01

    We perform landslide susceptibility zonation with slope units using three digital elevation models (DEMs) of varying spatial resolution of the Ubaye Valley (South French Alps). In so doing, we applied a recently developed algorithm automating slope unit delineation, given a number of parameters, in order to optimize simultaneously the partitioning of the terrain and the performance of a logistic regression susceptibility model. The method allowed us to obtain optimal slope units for each available DEM spatial resolution. For each resolution, we studied the susceptibility model performance by analyzing in detail the relevance of the conditioning variables. The analysis is based on landslide morphology data, considering either the whole landslide or only the source area outline as inputs. The procedure allowed us to select the most useful information, in terms of DEM spatial resolution, thematic variables and landslide inventory, in order to obtain the most reliable slope unit-based landslide susceptibility assessment.

  14. A qualitative comparison of fire spread models incorporating wind and slope effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Gregory S. Biging

    1997-01-01

    Wind velocity and slope are two critical variables that affect wildland fire rate of spread. The effects of these variables on rate of spread are often combined in rate-of-spread models using vector addition. The various methods used to combine wind and slope effects have seldom been validated or compared due to differences in the models or to lack of data. In this...

  15. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Linden, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local f...... in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo....

  16. Complex Behavior in an Integrate-and-Fire Neuron Model Based on Small World Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Min; Chen Tianlun

    2005-01-01

    Based on our previously pulse-coupled integrate-and-fire neuron model in small world networks, we investigate the complex behavior of electroencephalographic (EEG)-like activities produced by such a model. We find EEG-like activities have obvious chaotic characteristics. We also analyze the complex behaviors of EEG-like signals, such as spectral analysis, reconstruction of the phase space, the correlation dimension, and so on.

  17. A combined triggering-propagation modeling approach for the assessment of rainfall induced debris flow susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancanelli, Laura Maria; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino; Foti, Enrico

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow slides can evolve into debris flows that move rapidly downstream with devastating consequences. Mapping the susceptibility to debris flow is an important aid for risk mitigation. We propose a novel practical approach to derive debris flow inundation maps useful for susceptibility assessment, that is based on the integrated use of DEM-based spatially-distributed hydrological and slope stability models with debris flow propagation models. More specifically, the TRIGRS infiltration and infinite slope stability model and the FLO-2D model for the simulation of the related debris flow propagation and deposition are combined. An empirical instability-to-debris flow triggering threshold calibrated on the basis of observed events, is applied to link the two models and to accomplish the task of determining the amount of unstable mass that develops as a debris flow. Calibration of the proposed methodology is carried out based on real data of the debris flow event occurred on 1 October 2009, in the Peloritani mountains area (Italy). Model performance, assessed by receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) indexes, evidences fairly good reproduction of the observed event. Comparison with the performance of the traditional debris flow modeling procedure, in which sediment and water hydrographs are inputed as lumped at selected points on top of the streams, is also performed, in order to assess quantitatively the limitations of such commonly applied approach. Results show that the proposed method, besides of being more process-consistent than the traditional hydrograph-based approach, can potentially provide a more accurate simulation of debris-flow phenomena, in terms of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition as well on the quantification of mobilized volumes and depths, avoiding overestimation of debris flow triggering volume and, thus, of maximum inundation flow depths.

  18. Use of Video Modeling to Teach Extinguishing of Cooking Related Fires to Individuals with Moderate Intellectual Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechling, Linda C.; Gast, David L.; Gustafson, Melissa R.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluated the effectiveness of video modeling to teach fire extinguishing behaviors to three young adults with moderate intellectual disabilities. A multiple probe design across three fire extinguishing behaviors and replicated across three students was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the video-based program. Results indicate that…

  19. Incorporating field wind data into FIRETEC simulations of the International Crown Fire Modeling Experiment (ICFME): preliminary lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodman Linn; Kerry Anderson; Judith Winterkamp; Alyssa Broos; Michael Wotton; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Francois Pimont; Carleton Edminster

    2012-01-01

    Field experiments are one way to develop or validate wildland fire-behavior models. It is important to consider the implications of assumptions relating to the locality of measurements with respect to the fire, the temporal frequency of the measured data, and the changes to local winds that might be caused by the experimental configuration. Twenty FIRETEC simulations...

  20. Multiplatform inversion of the 2013 Rim Fire smoke emissions using regional-scale modeling: important nocturnal fire activity, air quality, and climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saide, P. E.; Peterson, D. A.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Ziemba, L. D.; Anderson, B.; Diskin, G. S.; Sachse, G. W.; Hair, J. W.; Butler, C. F.; Fenn, M. A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Dibb, J. E.; Yokelson, R. J.; Toon, B.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2014-12-01

    Large wildfire events are increasingly recognized for their adverse effects on air quality and visibility, thus providing motivation for improving smoke emission estimates. The Rim Fire, one of the largest events in California's history, produced a large smoke plume that was sampled by the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) DC-8 aircraft with a full suite of in-situ and remote sensing measurements on 26-27 August 2013. We developed an inversion methodology which uses the WRF-Chem modeling system to constrain hourly fire emissions, using as initial estimates the NASA Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). This method differs from the commonly performed top-down estimates that constrain daily (or longer time scale) emissions. The inversion method is able to simultaneously improve the model fit to various SEAC4RS airborne measurements (e.g., organic aerosol, carbon monoxide (CO), aerosol extinction), ground based measurements (e.g., AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD), CO), and satellite data (MODIS AOD) by modifying fire emissions and utilizing the information content of all these measurements. Preliminary results show that constrained emissions for a 6 day period following the largest fire growth are a factor 2-4 higher than the initial top-down estimates. Moreover, there is a tendency to increase nocturnal emissions by factors sometimes larger than 20, indicating that vigorous fire activity continued during the night. This deviation from a typical diurnal cycle is confirmed using geostationary satellite data. The constrained emissions also have a larger day-to-day variability than the initial emissions and correlate better to daily area burned estimates as observed by airborne infrared measurements (NIROPS). Experiments with the assimilation system show that performing the inversion using only satellite AOD data produces much smaller correction factors than when using all available data

  1. Modeling of phosphorus fluxes produced by wild fires at watershed scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyjasik, M.; Hernandez, M.; Shaw, N.; Baker, M.; Fowles, M. T.; Cisney, T. A.; Jex, A. P.; Moisen, G.

    2017-12-01

    River runoff is one of the controlling processes in the terrestrial phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus is often a limiting factor in fresh water. One of the factors that has not been studied and modeled in detail is phosporus flux produced from forest wild fires. Phosphate released by weathering is quickly absorbed in soils. Forest wild fires expose barren soils to intensive erosion, thus releasing relatively large fluxes of phosphorus. Measurements from three control burn sites were used to correlate erosion with phosphorus fluxes. These results were used to model phosphorus fluxes from burned watersheds during a five year long period after fires occurred. Erosion in our model is simulated using a combination of two models: the WEPP (USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project) and the GeoWEPP (GIS-based Water Erosion Prediction Project). Erosion produced from forest disturbances is predicted for any watershed using hydrologic, soil, and meteorological data unique to the individual watersheds or individual slopes. The erosion results are modified for different textural soil classes and slope angles to model fluxes of phosphorus. The results of these models are calibrated using measured concentrations of phosphorus for three watersheds located in the Interior Western United States. The results will help the United States Forest Service manage phosporus fluxes in national forests.

  2. Sodium spray and jet fire model development within the CONTAIN-LMR code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholtyssek, W.

    1993-01-01

    An assessment was made of the sodium spray fire model implemented in the CONTAIN code. The original droplet burn model, which was based on the NACOM code, was improved in several aspects, especially concerning evaluation of the droplet burning rate, reaction chemistry and heat balance, spray geometry and droplet motion, and consistency with CONTAIN standards of gas property evaluation. An additional droplet burning model based on a proposal by Krolikowski was made available to include the effect of the chemical equilibrium conditions at the flame temperature. The models were validated against single-droplet burn experiments as well as spray and jet fire experiments. Reasonable agreement was found between the two burn models and experimental data. When the gas temperature in the burning compartment reaches high values, the Krolikowski model seems to be preferable. Critical parameters for spray fire evaluation were found to be the spray characterization, especially the droplet size, which largely determines the burning efficiency, and heat transfer conditions at the interface between the atmosphere and structures, which controls the thermal hydraulic behavior in the burn compartment

  3. An Integrated Model for Identifying Linkages Between the Management of Fuel Treatments, Fire and Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, R. R.; Anderson, S.; Moritz, M.; Plantinga, A.; Tague, C.

    2015-12-01

    Vegetation fuel treatments (e.g. thinning, prescribed burning) are a frequent tool for managing fire-prone landscapes. However, predicting how fuel treatments may affect future wildfire risk and associated ecosystem services, such as forest water availability and streamflow, remains a challenge. This challenge is in part due to the large range of conditions under which fuel treatments may be implemented, as response is likely to vary with species type, rates of vegetation regrowth, meteorological conditions and physiographic properties of the treated site. It is also due to insufficient understanding of how social factors such as political pressure, public demands and economic constraints affect fuel management decisions. To examine the feedbacks between ecological and social dimensions of fuel treatments, we present an integrated model that links a biophysical model that simulates vegetation and hydrology (RHESSys), a fire spread model (WMFire) and an empirical fuel treatment model that accounts for agency decision-making. We use this model to investigate how management decisions affect landscape fuel loads, which in turn affect fire severity and ecosystem services, which feedback to management decisions on fuel treatments. We hypothesize that this latter effect will be driven by salience theory, which predicts that fuel treatments are more likely to occur following major wildfire events. The integrated model provides a flexible framework for answering novel questions about fuel treatments that span social and ecological domains, areas that have previously been treated separately.

  4. Static quadrupolar susceptibility for a Blume–Emery–Griffiths model based on the mean-field approximation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawlak, A., E-mail: pawlak@amu.edu.pl [Faculty of Physics, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 85, 61–614 Poznań (Poland); Gülpınar, G. [Department of Physics, Dokuz Eylül University, 35160 İzmir (Turkey); Erdem, R. [Department of Physics, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya (Turkey); Ağartıoğlu, M. [Institute of Science, Dokuz Eylül University, 35160 İzmir (Turkey)

    2015-12-01

    The expressions for the dipolar and quadrupolar susceptibilities are obtained within the mean-field approximation in the Blume–Emery–Griffiths model. Temperature as well as crystal field dependences of the susceptibilities are investigated for two different phase diagram topologies which take place for K/J=3 and K/J=5.0.Their behavior near the second and first order transition points as well as multi-critical points such as tricritical, triple and critical endpoint is presented. It is found that in addition to the jumps connected with the phase transitions there are broad peaks in the quadrupolar susceptibility. It is indicated that these broad peaks lie on a prolongation of the first-order line from a triple point to a critical point ending the line of first-order transitions between two distinct paramagnetic phases. It is argued that the broad peaks are a reminiscence of very strong quadrupolar fluctuations at the critical point. The results reveal the fact that near ferromagnetic–paramagnetic phase transitions the quadrupolar susceptibility generally shows a jump whereas near the phase transition between two distinct paramagnetic phases it is an edge-like. - Highlights: • MFA calculation of the quadrupolar and dipolar susceptibility in BEG model is given • The crystal-field variation of susceptibilities near the multi-critical points is examined • There are broad peaks in the quadrupolar susceptibility in the vicinity of CP • These maxima are remembrances of the very strong quadrupolar Fluctuations.

  5. An Accurate Fire-Spread Algorithm in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Using the Level-Set Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Esparza, Domingo; Kosović, Branko; Jiménez, Pedro A.; Coen, Janice L.

    2018-04-01

    The level-set method is typically used to track and propagate the fire perimeter in wildland fire models. Herein, a high-order level-set method using fifth-order WENO scheme for the discretization of spatial derivatives and third-order explicit Runge-Kutta temporal integration is implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting model wildland fire physics package, WRF-Fire. The algorithm includes solution of an additional partial differential equation for level-set reinitialization. The accuracy of the fire-front shape and rate of spread in uncoupled simulations is systematically analyzed. It is demonstrated that the common implementation used by level-set-based wildfire models yields to rate-of-spread errors in the range 10-35% for typical grid sizes (Δ = 12.5-100 m) and considerably underestimates fire area. Moreover, the amplitude of fire-front gradients in the presence of explicitly resolved turbulence features is systematically underestimated. In contrast, the new WRF-Fire algorithm results in rate-of-spread errors that are lower than 1% and that become nearly grid independent. Also, the underestimation of fire area at the sharp transition between the fire front and the lateral flanks is found to be reduced by a factor of ≈7. A hybrid-order level-set method with locally reduced artificial viscosity is proposed, which substantially alleviates the computational cost associated with high-order discretizations while preserving accuracy. Simulations of the Last Chance wildfire demonstrate additional benefits of high-order accurate level-set algorithms when dealing with complex fuel heterogeneities, enabling propagation across narrow fuel gaps and more accurate fire backing over the lee side of no fuel clusters.

  6. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of coal/biomass co-firing in pulverised fuel boilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moghtaderi, B.; Meesri, C. [University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW (Australia). CRC for Coal in Sustainable Development, Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    2002-07-01

    The present study is concerned with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of coal/biomass blends co-fired under conditions pertinent to pulverised fuel (PF) boilers. The attention is particularly focused on the near burner zone to examine the impact of biomass on the flame geometry and temperature. The predictions are obtained by numerical solution of the conservation equations for the gas and particle phases. The gas phase is solved in the Eulerian domain using steady-state time-averaged Navier-Stokes equations while the solution of the particle phase is obtained from a series of Lagrangian particle tracking equations. Turbulence is modelled using the {kappa}-{epsilon} and Reynolds Stress models. The comparison between the predictions and experimental measurement reported in the literature resulted in a good agreement. Other influences of biomass co-firing are observed for fuel devolatilisation and burnout. 19 refs., 6 figs.

  7. Landslide inventory and susceptibility modelling using geospatial tools, in Hunza-Nagar valley, northern Pakistan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacha, Alam Sher; Shafique, Muhammad; van der Werff, H.M.A.

    2018-01-01

    A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known

  8. Model-based Control of a Bottom Fired Marine Boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Karstensen, Claus M. S.; Andersen, Palle

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on applying model based MIMO control to minimize variations in water level for a specific boiler type. A first principles model is put up. The model is linearized and an LQG controller is designed. Furthermore the benefit of using a steam °ow measurement is compared to a strategy...... relying on estimates of the disturbance. Preliminary tests at the boiler system show that the designed controller is able to control the boiler process. Furthermore it can be concluded that relying on estimates of the steam flow in the control strategy does not decrease the controller performance...

  9. Model-based Control of a Bottom Fired Marine Boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Karstensen, Claus M. S.; Andersen, Palle

    This paper focuses on applying model based MIMO control to minimize variations in water level for a specific boiler type. A first principles model is put up. The model is linearized and an LQG controller is designed. Furthermore the benefit of using a steam °ow measurement is compared to a strategy...... relying on estimates of the disturbance. Preliminary tests at the boiler system show that the designed controller is able to control the boiler process. Furthermore it can be concluded that relying on estimates of the steam flow in the control strategy does not decrease the controller performance...

  10. Numerical modeling of sodium fire – Part II: Pool combustion and combined spray and pool combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathiah, Pratap; Roelofs, Ferry

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A CFD based method is proposed for the simulation of sodium pool combustion. • A sodium evaporation based model is proposed to model sodium pool evaporation. • The proposed method is validated against sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. • The results obtained using the proposed method are in good agreement with the experiments. - Abstract: The risk of sodium-air reaction has received considerable attention after the sodium-fire accident in Monju reactor. The fires resulting from the sodium-air reaction can be detrimental to the safety of a sodium fast reactor. Therefore, predicting the consequences of a sodium fire is important from a safety point of view. A computational method based on CFD is proposed here to simulate sodium pool fire and understand its characteristics. The method solves the Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equation and uses a non-premixed mixture fraction based combustion model. The mass transfer of sodium vapor from the pool surface to the flame is obtained using a sodium evaporation model. The proposed method is then validated against well-known sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. The flame temperature and location predicted by the model are in good agreement with experiments. Furthermore, the trends of the mean burning rate with initial pool temperature and oxygen concentration are captured well. Additionally, parametric studies have been performed to understand the effects of pool diameter and initial air temperature on the mean burning rate. Furthermore, the sodium spray and sodium pool combustion models are combined to simulate simultaneous spray and pool combustion. Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the combined code could be applied to simulate this. Once sufficiently validated, the present code can be used for safety evaluation of a sodium fast reactor

  11. Numerical modeling of sodium fire – Part II: Pool combustion and combined spray and pool combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathiah, Pratap, E-mail: pratap.sathiah78@gmail.com [Shell Global Solutions Ltd., Brabazon House, Concord Business Park, Threapwood Road, Manchester M220RR (United Kingdom); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), Westerduinweg 3, 1755ZG Petten (Netherlands)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • A CFD based method is proposed for the simulation of sodium pool combustion. • A sodium evaporation based model is proposed to model sodium pool evaporation. • The proposed method is validated against sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. • The results obtained using the proposed method are in good agreement with the experiments. - Abstract: The risk of sodium-air reaction has received considerable attention after the sodium-fire accident in Monju reactor. The fires resulting from the sodium-air reaction can be detrimental to the safety of a sodium fast reactor. Therefore, predicting the consequences of a sodium fire is important from a safety point of view. A computational method based on CFD is proposed here to simulate sodium pool fire and understand its characteristics. The method solves the Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equation and uses a non-premixed mixture fraction based combustion model. The mass transfer of sodium vapor from the pool surface to the flame is obtained using a sodium evaporation model. The proposed method is then validated against well-known sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. The flame temperature and location predicted by the model are in good agreement with experiments. Furthermore, the trends of the mean burning rate with initial pool temperature and oxygen concentration are captured well. Additionally, parametric studies have been performed to understand the effects of pool diameter and initial air temperature on the mean burning rate. Furthermore, the sodium spray and sodium pool combustion models are combined to simulate simultaneous spray and pool combustion. Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the combined code could be applied to simulate this. Once sufficiently validated, the present code can be used for safety evaluation of a sodium fast reactor.

  12. Modeling of biomass smoke injection into the lower stratosphere by a large forest fire (Part I: reference simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Trentmann

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fires in boreal regions have the potential to initiate deep convection, so-called pyro-convection, due to their release of sensible heat. Under favorable atmospheric conditions, large fires can result in pyro-convection that transports the emissions into the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Here, we present three-dimensional model simulations of the injection of fire emissions into the lower stratosphere by pyro-convection. These model simulations are constrained and evaluated with observations obtained from the Chisholm fire in Alberta, Canada, in 2001. The active tracer high resolution atmospheric model (ATHAM is initialized with observations obtained by radiosonde. Information on the fire forcing is obtained from ground-based observations of the mass and moisture of the burned fuel. Based on radar observations, the pyro-convection reached an altitude of about 13 km, well above the tropopause, which was located at about 11.2 km. The model simulation yields a similarly strong convection with an overshoot of the convection above the tropopause. The main outflow from the pyro-convection occurs at about 10.6 km, but a significant fraction (about 8% of the emitted mass of the smoke aerosol is transported above the tropopause. In contrast to regular convection, the region with maximum updraft velocity in the pyro-convection is located close to the surface above the fire. This results in high updraft velocities >10 m s−1 at cloud base. The temperature anomaly in the plume decreases rapidly with height from values above 50 K at the fire to about 5 K at about 3000 m above the fire. While the sensible heat released from the fire is responsible for the initiation of convection in the model, the release of latent heat from condensation and freezing dominates the overall energy budget. Emissions of water vapor from the fire do not significantly contribute to the energy budget of the convection.

  13. Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the

  14. Fire safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Bjoerkman, J.; Hostikka, S.; Mangs, J.; Huhtanen, R.; Palmen, H.; Salminen, A.; Turtola, A.

    1998-01-01

    According to experience and probabilistic risk assessments, fires present a significant hazard in a nuclear power plant. Fires may be initial events for accidents or affect safety systems planned to prevent accidents and to mitigate their consequences. The project consists of theoretical work, experiments and simulations aiming to increase the fire safety at nuclear power plants. The project has four target areas: (1) to produce validated models for numerical simulation programmes, (2) to produce new information on the behavior of equipment in case of fire, (3) to study applicability of new active fire protecting systems in nuclear power plants, and (4) to obtain quantitative knowledge of ignitions induced by important electric devices in nuclear power plants. These topics have been solved mainly experimentally, but modelling at different level is used to interpret experimental data, and to allow easy generalisation and engineering use of the obtained data. Numerical fire simulation has concentrated in comparison of CFD modelling of room fires, and fire spreading on cables on experimental data. So far the success has been good to fair. A simple analytical and numerical model has been developed for fire effluents spreading beyond the room of origin in mechanically strongly ventilated compartments. For behaviour of equipment in fire several full scale and scaled down calorimetric experiments were carried out on electronic cabinets, as well as on horizontal and vertical cable trays. These were carried out to supply material for CFD numerical simulation code validation. Several analytical models were developed and validated against obtained experimental results to allow quick calculations for PSA estimates as well as inter- and extrapolations to slightly different objects. Response times of different commercial fire detectors were determined for different types of smoke, especially emanating from smoldering and flaming cables to facilitate selection of proper detector

  15. Metal fires and their implications for advanced reactors. Part 3: Experimental and modeling results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowlen, Steven Patrick; Figueroa, Victor G.; Olivier, Tara Jean; Hewson, John C.; Blanchat, Thomas K.

    2010-01-01

    This report details the primary results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project (LDRD 08-0857) Metal Fires and Their Implications for Advance Reactors. Advanced reactors may employ liquid metal coolants, typically sodium, because of their many desirable qualities. This project addressed some of the significant challenges associated with the use of liquid metal coolants, primary among these being the extremely rapid oxidation (combustion) that occurs at the high operating temperatures in reactors. The project has identified a number of areas for which gaps existed in knowledge pertinent to reactor safety analyses. Experimental and analysis capabilities were developed in these areas to varying degrees. In conjunction with team participation in a DOE gap analysis panel, focus was on the oxidation of spilled sodium on thermally massive surfaces. These are spills onto surfaces that substantially cool the sodium during the oxidation process, and they are relevant because standard risk mitigation procedures seek to move spill environments into this regime through rapid draining of spilled sodium. While the spilled sodium is not quenched, the burning mode is different in that there is a transition to a smoldering mode that has not been comprehensively described previously. Prior work has described spilled sodium as a pool fire, but there is a crucial, experimentally-observed transition to a smoldering mode of oxidation. A series of experimental measurements have comprehensively described the thermal evolution of this type of sodium fire for the first time. A new physics-based model has been developed that also predicts the thermal evolution of this type of sodium fire for the first time. The model introduces smoldering oxidation through porous oxide layers to go beyond traditional pool fire analyses that have been carried out previously in order to predict experimentally observed trends. Combined, these developments add significantly to the safety

  16. Afforestation, subsequent forest fires and provision of hydrological services: a model-based analysis for a Mediterranean mountainous catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Naranjo Quintanilla, Paula; Santos, Juliana; Serpa, Dalila; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Rocha, João; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Keesstra, Saskia

    2017-04-01

    Mediterranean landscapes have experienced extensive abandonment and reforestation in recent decades, which should have improved the provision of hydrological services, such as flood mitigation, soil erosion protection and water quality regulation. However, these forests are fire-prone, and the post-fire increase in runoff, erosion and sediment exports could negatively affect service provision. This issue was assessed using the SWAT model for a small mountain agroforestry catchment, which was monitored between 2010 and 2014 and where some eucalypt stands burned in 2011 and were subsequently plowed for replanting. The model was calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment yield and erosion in agricultural fields and the burnt hillslopes, showing that it can be adapted for post-fire simulation. It was then used to perform a decadal assessment of surface runoff, erosion, and sediment exports between 2004 and 2014. Results show that the fire did not noticeably affect flood mitigation but that it increased erosion by 3 orders of magnitude, which subsequently increased sediment yield. Erosion in the burnt forest during this decade was one order of magnitude above that in agricultural fields. SWAT was also used to assess different fire and land-use scenarios during the same period. Results indicate that the impacts of fire were lower without post-fire soil management, and when the fire occurred in pine forests (i.e. before the 1990s) or in shrublands (i.e. before afforestation in the 1930s). These impacts were robust to changes in post-fire weather conditions and to a lower fire frequency (20-year intervals). The results suggest that, in the long term, fire-prone forests might not provide the anticipated soil protection and water quality regulation services in wet Mediterranean regions.

  17. Numerical approaches to model perturbation fire in turing pattern formations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campagna, R.; Brancaccio, M.; Cuomo, S.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Siettos, K.; Giannino, F.

    2017-11-01

    Turing patterns were observed in chemical, physical and biological systems described by coupled reaction-diffusion equations. Several models have been formulated proposing the water as the causal mechanism of vegetation pattern formation, but this isn't an exhaustive hypothesis in some natural environments. An alternative explanation has been related to the plant-soil negative feedback. In Marasco et al. [1] the authors explored the hypothesis that both mechanisms contribute in the formation of regular and irregular vegetation patterns. The mathematical model consists in three partial differential equations (PDEs) that take into account for a dynamic balance between biomass, water and toxic compounds. A numerical approach is mandatory also to investigate on the predictions of this kind of models. In this paper we start from the mathematical model described in [1], set the model parameters such that the biomass reaches a stable spatial pattern (spots) and present preliminary studies about the occurrence of perturbing events, such as wildfire, that can affect the regularity of the biomass configuration.

  18. On the critical behavior of the inverse susceptibility of a model of structural phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pisanova, E.S.; Ivanov, S.I.

    2013-01-01

    An exactly solvable lattice model describing structural phase transitions in an anharmonic crystal with long-range interaction is considered in the neighborhoods of the quantum and classical critical points at the corresponding upper critical dimensions. In a broader neighborhood of the critical region the inverse susceptibility of the model is exactly calculated in terms of the Lambert W-function and graphically presented as a function of the deviation from the critical point and the upper critical dimension. For quantum and classical systems with real physical dimensions (chains, thin layers and three-dimensional systems) the exact results are compared with the asymptotic ones on the basis of some numerical data for their ratio. Relative errors are also provided

  19. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.

    2016-04-01

    Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography

  20. Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coşkun Okan Güney

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to present the fire ignition risk for Manavgat-Antalya District to enable the planning of firefighting sources in a more qualified way. From sites within the study area, where forest fires broke out or not during the past five years, we obtained geographical coordinates, climate data, topographical data and variables like bedrock, stand types, settlement areas, roads and power lines and prepared them with geographical information systems. For all variables we performed Wilcoxon rank-sum test, interspecific correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis and obtained 4 different models. When ROC analysis was applied to these models, model 4 was determined as the most significant model and therefore used to prepare the fire ignition risk map for the Manavgat-Antalya District. According to this map, ignition risk within the study area was highest in and around settlement areas where roads and power lines concentrate and Turkish red pine is distributed, but it was lowest afar of settlement areas without roads and where species apart from Turkish red pine are distributed. According to the results some suggestions were made.

  1. Finite element modelling of fire situations in UF6 transport containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basombrio, F.G.

    1996-01-01

    In this report we describe some runs made with the code FASES2. They concern different situations associated to fires originated by accidents in the transport of containers filled with UF6. Such situations have been inspired in cases taken from the current literature, and related to numerical modelling or experiments. We aim to consign the most relevant aspects of such runs, with the future purpose of comparing them with the predictions made with simpler lumped models. In such a way, it will be possible to calibrate the simple models with the results coming from detailed models. (author). 6 refs., 12 figs

  2. A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

    2016-12-01

    Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal

  3. Experimental mathematics on the magnetic susceptibility of the square lattice Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boukraa, S [LPTHIRM and Departement d' Aeronautique, Universite de Blida (Algeria); Guttmann, A J; Jensen, I [ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Hassani, S; Zenine, N [Centre de Recherche Nucleaire d' Alger, 2 Bd. Frantz Fanon, BP 399, 16000 Alger (Algeria); Maillard, J-M [LPTMC, Universite de Paris, Tour 24, 4eme etage, case 121, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Nickel, B [Department of Physics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1 (Canada)], E-mail: boukraa@mail.univ-blida.dz, E-mail: tonyg@ms.unimelb.edu.au, E-mail: I.Jensen@ms.unimelb.edu.au, E-mail: maillard@lptmc.jussieu.fr, E-mail: maillard@lptl.jussieu.fr, E-mail: njzenine@yahoo.com

    2008-11-14

    We calculate very long low- and high-temperature series for the susceptibility {chi} of the square lattice Ising model as well as very long series for the five-particle contribution {chi}{sup (5)} and six-particle contribution {chi}{sup (6)}. These calculations have been made possible by the use of highly optimized polynomial time modular algorithms and a total of more than 150 000 CPU hours on computer clusters. The series for {chi} (low- and high-temperature regimes), {chi}{sup (5)} and {chi}{sup (6)} are now extended to 2000 terms. In addition, for {chi}{sup (5)}, 10 000 terms of the series are calculated modulo a single prime, and have been used to find the linear ODE satisfied by {chi}{sup (5)} modulo a prime. A diff-Pade analysis of the 2000 terms series for {chi}{sup (5)} and {chi}{sup (6)} confirms to a very high degree of confidence previous conjectures about the location and strength of the singularities of the n-particle components of the susceptibility, up to a small set of 'additional' singularities. The exponents at all the singularities of the Fuchsian linear ODE of {chi}{sup (5)} and the (as yet unknown) ODE of {chi}{sup (6)} are given: they are all rational numbers. We find the presence of singularities at w = 1/2 for the linear ODE of {chi}{sup (5)}, and w{sup 2} = 1/8 for the ODE of {chi}{sup (6)}, which are not singularities of the 'physical' {chi}{sup (5)} and {chi}{sup (6)}, that is to say the series solutions of the ODE's which are analytic at w = 0. Furthermore, analysis of the long series for {chi}{sup (5)} (and {chi}{sup (6)}) combined with the corresponding long series for the full susceptibility {chi} yields previously conjectured singularities in some {chi}{sup (n)}, n {>=} 7. The exponents at all these singularities are also seen to be rational numbers. We also present a mechanism of resummation of the logarithmic singularities of the {chi}{sup (n)} leading to the known power-law critical behaviour occurring in

  4. Verification of the Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model During Fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, K.L.; Leeuw, G. de; Gathman, S.G.; Jensen, D.R.

    1990-01-01

    The Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model (NOVAM) has been formulated to estimate the vertical structure of the optical and infrared extinction coefficients in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), for waverengths between 0,2 and 40 um. NOVAM was designed to predict, utilizing a set of

  5. Modeling motoneuron firing properties: dependency on size and calcium dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Heyden, M. J.; Hilgevoord, A. A.; Bour, L. J.; Ongerboer de Visser, B. W.

    1994-01-01

    The origin of functional differences between motoneurons of varying size was investigated by employing a one-compartmental motoneuron model containing a slow K+ conductance dependent on the intracellular calcium concentration. The size of the cell was included as an explicit parameter. Simulations

  6. Memory effects on a resonate-and-fire neuron model subjected to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paekivi, S.; Mankin, R.; Rekker, A.

    2017-10-01

    We consider a generalized Langevin equation with an exponentially decaying memory kernel as a model for the firing process of a resonate-and-fire neuron. The effect of temporally correlated random neuronal input is modeled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise. In the noise-induced spiking regime of the neuron, we derive exact analytical formulas for the dependence of some statistical characteristics of the output spike train, such as the probability distribution of the interspike intervals (ISIs) and the survival probability, on the parameters of the input stimulus. Particularly, on the basis of these exact expressions, we have established sufficient conditions for the occurrence of memory-time-induced transitions between unimodal and multimodal structures of the ISI density and a critical damping coefficient which marks a dynamical transition in the behavior of the system.

  7. Effects of wildland fire smoke on a tree-roosting bat: integrating a plume model, field measurements, and mammalian dose-response relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.B. Dickinson; J.C. Norris; A.S. Bova; R.L. Kremens; V. Young; M.J. Lacki

    2010-01-01

    Faunal injury and mortality in wildland fires is a concern for wildlife and fire management although little work has been done on the mechanisms by which exposures cause their effects. In this paper, we use an integral plume model, field measurements, and models of carbon monoxide and heat effects to explore risk to tree-roosting bats during prescribed fires in mixed-...

  8. Landslide susceptibility mapping in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq: a comparison of different statistical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, A. A.; Gloaguen, R.; Andreani, L.; Rahnama, M.

    2015-03-01

    During the last decades, expansion of settlements into areas prone to landslides in Iraq has increased the importance of accurate hazard assessment. Susceptibility mapping provides information about hazardous locations and thus helps to potentially prevent infrastructure damage due to mass wasting. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare frequency ratio (FR), weight of evidence (WOE), logistic regression (LR) and probit regression (PR) approaches in combination with new geomorphological indices to determine the landslide susceptibility index (LSI). We tested these four methods in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq, where landslides occur frequently. For this purpose, we evaluated 16 geomorphological, geological and environmental predicting factors mainly derived from the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) satellite. The available reference inventory includes 351 landslides representing a cumulative surface of 3.127 km2. This reference inventory was mapped from QuickBird data by manual delineation and partly verified by field survey. The areas under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and relative landslide density (R index) show that all models perform similarly and that focus should be put on the careful selection of proxies. The results indicate that the lithology and the slope aspects play major roles for landslide occurrences. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that using hypsometric integral as a prediction factor instead of slope curvature gives better results and increases the accuracy of the LSI.

  9. CHARACTERIZATION AND MODELING OF THE FORMS OF MERCURY FROM COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis L. Laudal

    2001-08-01

    The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAAs) required the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to determine whether the presence of mercury in the stack emissions from fossil fuel-fired electric utility power plants poses an unacceptable public health risk. EPA's conclusions and recommendations were presented in the Mercury Study Report to Congress (1) and the Utility Air Toxics Report to Congress (1). The first report addressed both the human health and environmental effects of anthropogenic mercury emissions, while the second addressed the risk to public health posed by the emission of mercury and other hazardous air pollutants from steam-electric generating units. Given the current state of the art, these reports did not state that mercury controls on coal-fired electric power stations would be required. However, they did indicate that EPA views mercury as a potential threat to human health. In fact, in December 2000, the EPA issued an intent to regulate for mercury from coal-fired boilers. However, it is clear that additional research needs to be done in order to develop economical and effective mercury control strategies. To accomplish this objective, it is necessary to understand mercury behavior in coal-fired power plants. The markedly different chemical and physical properties of the different mercury forms generated during coal combustion appear to impact the effectiveness of various mercury control strategies. The original Characterization and Modeling of the Forms of Mercury from Coal-Fired Power Plants project had two tasks. The first was to collect enough data such that mercury speciation could be predicted based on relatively simple inputs such as coal analyses and plant configuration. The second was to field-validate the Ontario Hydro mercury speciation method (at the time, it had only been validated at the pilot-scale level). However, after sampling at two power plants (the Ontario Hydro method was validated at one of them), the EPA issued

  10. Using MOPITT data and a Chemistry and Transport Model to Investigate Injection Height of Plumes from Boreal Forest Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Allen, D. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Warner, J. X.

    2003-12-01

    Trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires are a significant factor in atmospheric composition and its interannual variability. A number of recent observations of emissions plumes above individual fire events (Fromm and Servranckx, 2003; COBRA 2003; Lamarque et al., 2003; Wotawa and Trainer, 2000) suggest that vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes can be very different from fossil fuel emission plumes. Understanding and constraining the vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes and their injection into the atmosphere during fire events is critical for accurate modeling of atmospheric transport and chemistry. While excellent data have been collected in a handful of experiments on individual fire events, a systematic examination of the range of behavior observed in fire events has been hampered by the scarcity of vertical profiles of atmospheric composition. In this study, we used a high-resolution model of boreal forest fire emissions (Kasischke et al, in review) as input to the Goddard/UM CTM driven by the GEOS-3 DAS, operating at 2 by 2.5 degrees with 35 vertical levels. We modeled atmospheric injection and transport of CO emissions during the fire season of 2000 (May-September). We altered the parameters of the model to simulate a range of scenarios of plume injection, and compared the resulting output to the CO profiles from the MOPITT instrument. The results presented here pertain to the boreal forest, but our methods should be useful for atmospheric modelers hoping to more realistically model transport of emission plumes from biomass burning. References: COBRA2003: see http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~cobra/smoke_canada_030530.pdf Fromm, M. and R. Servranckx, 2003. "Stratospheric Injection of Forest Fire Emissions on August 4, 1998: A Satellite Image Analysis of the Causal Supercell Convection." Geophysical Research Abstracts 5:13118. Kasischke, E.S.; E.J. Hyer, N.H.F. French, A.I. Sukhinin, J.H. Hewson, B.J. Stocks, in review. "Carbon

  11. IoT-Based Intelligent Modeling of Smart Home Environment for Fire Prevention and Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Faisal Saeed; Anand Paul; Abdul Rehman; Won Hwa Hong; Hyuncheol Seo

    2018-01-01

    Fires usually occur in homes because of carelessness and changes in environmental conditions. They cause threats to the residential community and may result in human death and property damage. Consequently, house fires must be detected early to prevent these types of threats. The immediate notification of a fire is the most critical issue in domestic fire detection systems. Fire detection systems using wireless sensor networks sometimes do not detect a fire as a consequence of sensor failure....

  12. Investigating fire emissions and smoke transport during the Summer of 2013 using an operational smoke modeling system and chemical transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONeill, S. M.; Chung, S. H.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M. E.; Solomon, R. C.; Rorig, M.

    2014-12-01

    Emissions from fires in the Western US are substantial and can impact air quality and regional climate. Many methods exist that estimate the particulate and gaseous emissions from fires, including those run operationally for use with chemical forecast models. The US Forest Service Smartfire2/BlueSky modeling framework uses satellite data and reported information about fire perimeters to estimate emissions of pollutants to the atmosphere. The emission estimates are used as inputs to dispersion models, such as HYSPLIT, and chemical transport models, such as CMAQ and WRF-Chem, to assess the chemical and physical impacts of fires on the atmosphere. Here we investigate the use of Smartfire2/BlueSky and WRF-Chem to simulate emissions from the 2013 fire summer fire season, with special focus on the Rim Fire in northern California. The 2013 Rim Fire ignited on August 17 and eventually burned more than 250,000 total acres before being contained on October 24. Large smoke plumes and pyro-convection events were observed. In this study, the Smartfire2/BlueSky operational emission estimates are compared to other estimation methods, such as the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) and other global databases to quantify variations in emission estimation methods for this wildfire event. The impact of the emissions on downwind chemical composition is investigated with the coupled meteorology-chemistry WRF-Chem model. The inclusion of aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions in the model framework enables the evaluation of the downwind impacts of the fire plume. The emissions and modeled chemistry can also be evaluated with data collected from the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) aircraft field campaign, which intersected the fire plume.

  13. Genetic and genomic analysis modeling of germline c-MYC overexpression and cancer susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nunes Virginia

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Germline genetic variation is associated with the differential expression of many human genes. The phenotypic effects of this type of variation may be important when considering susceptibility to common genetic diseases. Three regions at 8q24 have recently been identified to independently confer risk of prostate cancer. Variation at 8q24 has also recently been associated with risk of breast and colorectal cancer. However, none of the risk variants map at or relatively close to known genes, with c-MYC mapping a few hundred kilobases distally. Results This study identifies cis-regulators of germline c-MYC expression in immortalized lymphocytes of HapMap individuals. Quantitative analysis of c-MYC expression in normal prostate tissues suggests an association between overexpression and variants in Region 1 of prostate cancer risk. Somatic c-MYC overexpression correlates with prostate cancer progression and more aggressive tumor forms, which was also a pathological variable associated with Region 1. Expression profiling analysis and modeling of transcriptional regulatory networks predicts a functional association between MYC and the prostate tumor suppressor KLF6. Analysis of MYC/Myc-driven cell transformation and tumorigenesis substantiates a model in which MYC overexpression promotes transformation by down-regulating KLF6. In this model, a feedback loop through E-cadherin down-regulation causes further transactivation of c-MYC. Conclusion This study proposes that variation at putative 8q24 cis-regulator(s of transcription can significantly alter germline c-MYC expression levels and, thus, contribute to prostate cancer susceptibility by down-regulating the prostate tumor suppressor KLF6 gene.

  14. Stochastic model of texture dependence of iodine SCC susceptibility of a zircaloy-2 alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirao, Keiichi; Yamane, Toshimi; Nakajima, Shinichi; Node, Shunsaku; Fujisawa, Takashi; Minamino, Yoritoshi

    1991-01-01

    Effects of textures on statistical parameters of tensile elongations in stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of zircaloy-2 using a slow strain rate test (SSRT) method have been investigated by Weibull distribution method based on stochastic process theory. The SCC is analyzed by assuming a probabilistic state transition model. Tensile directions of test pieces were prepared parallel, 45deg and perpendicular to rolling direction of the sheet. The test pieces in evacuated silica tubes were annealed at 1073K for 7.2x10 3 s, and then quenched into ice water. The annealed pieces with tilt angle α between tensile direction and a basal plane {0001} were 0, 18 and 25deg respectively. The tensile elongations of zircaloy-2 in SCC using the SSRT method are found to obey the single Weibull distribution with location parameters, and the SCC phenomena can be described by the Weibull distribution based on the stochastic process. The values of scale parameter η decrease with the tilt angle α, and the SCC susceptibility can be indicated by the values of scale parameter η. The texture dependence of the values of shape parameters m shows the changes of corrosion process in iodine solution and deformation system in air which are observed in the SSRT. The mechanism of decrement in the SCC susceptibility changes with the tilt angle α. The SCC under SSRT method is found to obey the model of probabilistic state transition. The constant load SCC process which obey the model of probabilistic state transition, is found to be effective for estimation of accelerated SCC condition. (author)

  15. Classification Model for Forest Fire Hotspot Occurrences Prediction Using ANFIS Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijayanto, A. K.; Sani, O.; Kartika, N. D.; Herdiyeni, Y.

    2017-01-01

    This study proposed the application of data mining technique namely Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) on forest fires hotspot data to develop classification models for hotspots occurrence in Central Kalimantan. Hotspot is a point that is indicated as the location of fires. In this study, hotspot distribution is categorized as true alarm and false alarm. ANFIS is a soft computing method in which a given inputoutput data set is expressed in a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The FIS implements a nonlinear mapping from its input space to the output space. The method of this study classified hotspots as target objects by correlating spatial attributes data using three folds in ANFIS algorithm to obtain the best model. The best result obtained from the 3rd fold provided low error for training (error = 0.0093676) and also low error testing result (error = 0.0093676). Attribute of distance to road is the most determining factor that influences the probability of true and false alarm where the level of human activities in this attribute is higher. This classification model can be used to develop early warning system of forest fire.

  16. A MODEL OF THE INFLUENCES OF A FOREST FIRE ON ITS NEIGHBORHOODS AND RELATED RISK MANAGEMENT ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin POSEA

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The aim of the present paper is to produce a model for the propagation of a forest fire analyzing the influences that the fire zone has on its neighborhoods. The model is aMoore cellular automaton type. It depends on six parameters: the medium slope of the elementary cell, the layer type, and the burning time of the fuel, the fuel type, the wind direction and speed. In order to study the influences of various parameter configurations on the system of vicinities of a fire cell we construct some special directional correlation functions. An application is elaborated based on real data.

  17. Lightning Forcing in Global Fire Models: The Importance of Temporal Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsberg, A.; Kloster, S.; Wilkenskjeld, S.; Krause, A.; Lasslop, G.

    2018-01-01

    In global fire models, lightning is typically prescribed from observational data with monthly mean temporal resolution while meteorological forcings, such as precipitation or temperature, are prescribed in a daily resolution. In this study, we investigate the importance of the temporal resolution of the lightning forcing for the simulation of burned area by varying from daily to monthly and annual mean forcing. For this, we utilize the vegetation fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE to simulate burned area, forced with meteorological and lightning data derived from the general circulation model ECHAM6. On a global scale, differences in burned area caused by lightning forcing applied in coarser temporal resolution stay below 0.55% compared to the use of daily mean forcing. Regionally, however, differences reach up to 100%, depending on the region and season. Monthly averaged lightning forcing as well as the monthly lightning climatology cause differences through an interaction between lightning ignitions and fire prone weather conditions, accounted for by the fire danger index. This interaction leads to decreased burned area in the boreal zone and increased burned area in the Tropics and Subtropics under the coarser temporal resolution. The exclusion of interannual variability, when forced with the lightning climatology, has only a minor impact on the simulated burned area. Annually averaged lightning forcing causes differences as a direct result of the eliminated seasonal characteristics of lightning. Burned area is decreased in summer and increased in winter where fuel is available. Regions with little seasonality, such as the Tropics and Subtropics, experience an increase in burned area.

  18. Improving freight fire safety : experiment testing and computer modeling to further development of mist-controlling additives for fire mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    With the purpose to minimize or prevent crash-induced fires in road and rail transportation, the : current interest in bio-derived and blended transportation fuels is increasing. Based on two years : of preliminary testing and analysis, it appears to...

  19. Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fermín J. Alcasena

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain. Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306 in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km. Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.

  20. Effective spreading from multiple leaders identified by percolation in the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Shenggong; Lü, Linyuan; Yeung, Chi Ho; Hu, Yanqing

    2017-07-01

    Social networks constitute a new platform for information propagation, but its success is crucially dependent on the choice of spreaders who initiate the spreading of information. In this paper, we remove edges in a network at random and the network segments into isolated clusters. The most important nodes in each cluster then form a set of influential spreaders, such that news propagating from them would lead to extensive coverage and minimal redundancy. The method utilizes the similarities between the segmented networks before percolation and the coverage of information propagation in each social cluster to obtain a set of distributed and coordinated spreaders. Our tests of implementing the susceptible-infected-recovered model on Facebook and Enron email networks show that this method outperforms conventional centrality-based methods in terms of spreadability and coverage redundancy. The suggested way of identifying influential spreaders thus sheds light on a new paradigm of information propagation in social networks.

  1. Application of a neuro-fuzzy model to landslide-susceptibility mapping for shallow landslides in a tropical hilly area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hyun-Joo; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2011-09-01

    This paper presents landslide-susceptibility mapping using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using a geographic information system (GIS) environment. In the first stage, landslide locations from the study area were identified by interpreting aerial photographs and supported by an extensive field survey. In the second stage, landslide-related conditioning factors such as altitude, slope angle, plan curvature, distance to drainage, distance to road, soil texture and stream power index (SPI) were extracted from the topographic and soil maps. Then, landslide-susceptible areas were analyzed by the ANFIS approach and mapped using landslide-conditioning factors. In particular, various membership functions (MFs) were applied for the landslide-susceptibility mapping and their results were compared with the field-verified landslide locations. Additionally, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for all landslide susceptibility maps were drawn and the areas under curve values were calculated. The ROC curve technique is based on the plotting of model sensitivity — true positive fraction values calculated for different threshold values, versus model specificity — true negative fraction values, on a graph. Landslide test locations that were not used during the ANFIS modeling purpose were used to validate the landslide susceptibility maps. The validation results revealed that the susceptibility maps constructed by the ANFIS predictive models using triangular, trapezoidal, generalized bell and polynomial MFs produced reasonable results (84.39%), which can be used for preliminary land-use planning. Finally, the authors concluded that ANFIS is a very useful and an effective tool in regional landslide susceptibility assessment.

  2. Measuring and Modeling the Effects of Alternate Post-Fire Successional Trajectories on Boreal Forest Carbon Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loranty, M. M.; Goetz, S. J.; Mack, M. C.; Alexander, H. D.; Beck, P. S.

    2011-12-01

    High latitude ecosystems are experiencing amplified climate warming, and recent evidence suggests concurrent intensification of fire disturbance regimes. In central Alaskan boreal forests, severe burns consume more of the soil organic layer, resulting in increased establishment of deciduous seedlings and altered post-fire stand composition with increased deciduous dominance. Quantifying differences in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics between forest successional trajectories in response to burn severity is essential for understanding potential changes in regional or global feedbacks between boreal forests and climate. We used the Biome BioGeochemical Cycling model (Biome-BGC) to quantify differences in C stocks and fluxes associated with alternate post-fire successional trajectories related to fire severity. A version of Biome-BGC that allows alternate competing vegetation types was calibrated against a series of aboveground biomass observations from chronosequences of stands with differing post-fire successional trajectories characterized by the proportion of deciduous biomass. The model was able to reproduce observed patterns of biomass accumulation after fire, with stands dominated by deciduous species sequestering more C at a faster rate than stands dominated by conifers. Modeled C fluxes suggest that stands dominated by deciduous species are a stronger sink of atmospheric C soon after disturbance than coniferous stands. These results agree with the few available C flux observations. We use a historic database in conjunction with a map of deciduous canopy cover to explore the consequences of ongoing and potential future changes in the fire regime on central Alaskan C balance.

  3. Stability Analysis Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) Model for Spread Model for Spread of Dengue Fever in Medan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Side, Syafruddin; Molliq Rangkuti, Yulita; Gerhana Pane, Dian; Setia Sinaga, Marlina

    2018-01-01

    Dengue fever is endemic disease which spread through vector, Aedes Aegypty. This disease is found more than 100 countries, such as, United State, Africa as well Asia, especially in country that have tropic climate. Mathematical modeling in this paper, discusses the speed of the spread of dengue fever. The model adopting divided over four classes, such as Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I) and Recovered (R). SEIR model further analyzed to detect the re-breeding value based on the number reported case by dengue in Medan city. Analysis of the stability of the system in this study is asymptotically stable indicating a case of endemic and unstable that show cases the endemic cases. Simulation on the mathematical model of SEIR showed that require a very long time to produce infected humans will be free of dengue virus infection. This happens because of dengue virus infection that occurs continuously between human and vector populations.

  4. Collapse susceptibility mapping in karstified gypsum terrain (Sivas basin - Turkey) by conditional probability, logistic regression, artificial neural network models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Isik; Keskin, Inan; Marschalko, Marian; Bednarik, Martin

    2010-05-01

    This study compares the GIS based collapse susceptibility mapping methods such as; conditional probability (CP), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) applied in gypsum rock masses in Sivas basin (Turkey). Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was first constructed using GIS software. Collapse-related factors, directly or indirectly related to the causes of collapse occurrence, such as distance from faults, slope angle and aspect, topographical elevation, distance from drainage, topographic wetness index- TWI, stream power index- SPI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) by means of vegetation cover, distance from roads and settlements were used in the collapse susceptibility analyses. In the last stage of the analyses, collapse susceptibility maps were produced from CP, LR and ANN models, and they were then compared by means of their validations. Area Under Curve (AUC) values obtained from all three methodologies showed that the map obtained from ANN model looks like more accurate than the other models, and the results also showed that the artificial neural networks is a usefull tool in preparation of collapse susceptibility map and highly compatible with GIS operating features. Key words: Collapse; doline; susceptibility map; gypsum; GIS; conditional probability; logistic regression; artificial neural networks.

  5. Structured Spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox point process models, with a view to modelling forest fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Diaz-Avalos, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable fo...... data set consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent....

  6. Training the integrate-and-fire model with the informax principle: I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feng Jianfeng; Buxton, Hilary [COGS, Sussex University, Brighton (United Kingdom); Deng Yingchun [Department of Mathematics, Hunan Normal University, Changsha (China)

    2002-03-15

    In terms of the informax principle, and the input-output relationship of the integrate-and-fire (IF) model, IF neuron learning rules are developed. For supervised learning and with uniform weight of synapses (the theoretically tractable case), we show that the derived learning rule is stable and the stable state is unique. For unsupervised learning, within physiologically reasonable parameter regions, both long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD) could happen when the inhibitory input is weak, but LTD cannot be observed when inhibitory input is strong enough. When both LTP and LTD occur, LTD is observable when the output of the postsynaptic neuron is faster than pre-synaptic inputs, otherwise LTP is observable, as observed in recent experiments. Learning rules of general cases are also studied and numerical examples show that the derived learning rule tends to equalize the contribution of different inputs to the output firing rates. (author)

  7. Alternative states and population crashes in a resource-susceptible-infected model for planktonic parasites and hosts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerla, D.J.; Gsell, A.S.; Kooi, B.W.; Ibelings, B.W.; Van Donk, E.; Mooij, W.M.

    2013-01-01

    1. Despite the strong impact parasites can have, only few models of phytoplankton ecology or aquatic food webs have specifically included parasitism. 2. Here, we provide a susceptible-infected model for a diatom-chytrid host–parasite system that explicitly includes nutrients, infected and uninfected

  8. Alternative states and population crashes in a resource-susceptible-infected model for planktonic parasites and hosts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerla, D.J.; Gsell, A.S.; Kooi, B.W.; Ibelings, B.W.; Donk, van E.; Mooij, W.M.

    2013-01-01

    1. Despite the strong impact parasites can have, only few models of phytoplankton ecology or aquatic food webs have specifically included parasitism. 2. Here, we provide a susceptible-infected model for a diatom-chytrid hostparasite system that explicitly includes nutrients, infected and uninfected

  9. Drought, Fire and Insects in Western US Forests: Observations to Improve Regional Land System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.; Hicke, J. A.; Buotte, P.; Hudiburg, T. W.

    2015-12-01

    Drought, fire and insects are major disturbances in the western US, and conditions are expected to get warmer and drier in the future. We combine multi-scale observations and modeling with CLM4.5 to examine the effects of these disturbances on forests in the western US. We modified the Community Land Model, CLM4.5, to improve simulated drought-related mortality in forests, and prediction of insect outbreaks under future climate conditions. We examined differences in plant traits that represent species variation in sensitivity to drought, and redefined plant groupings in PFTs. Plant traits, including sapwood area: leaf area ratio and stemwood density were strongly correlated with water availability during the ecohydrologic year. Our database of co-located observations of traits for 30 tree species was used to produce parameterization of the model by species groupings according to similar traits. Burn area predicted by the new fire model in CLM4.5 compares well with recent years of GFED data, but has a positive bias compared with Landsat-based MTBS. Biomass mortality over recent decades increased, and was captured well by the model in general, but missed mortality trends of some species. Comparisons with AmeriFlux data showed that the model with dynamic tree mortality only (no species trait improvements) overestimated GPP in dry years compared with flux data at semi-arid sites, and underestimated GPP at more mesic sites that experience dry summers. Simulations with both dynamic tree mortality and species trait parameters improved estimates of GPP by 17-22%; differences between predicted and observed NEE were larger. Future projections show higher productivity from increased atmospheric CO2 and warming that somewhat offsets drought and fire effects over the next few decades. Challenges include representation of hydraulic failure in models, and availability of species trait and carbon/water process data in disturbance- and drought-impacted regions.

  10. Evaluation of different models to segregate Pelibuey and Katahdin ewes into resistant or susceptible to gastrointestinal nematodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomo-Couoh, Jovanny Gaspar; Aguilar-Caballero, Armando Jacinto; Torres-Acosta, Juan Felipe de Jesús; Magaña-Monforte, Juan Gabriel

    2016-12-01

    This study evaluated four models based on the number of eggs per gram of faeces (EPG) to segregate Pelibuey or Katahdin ewes during the lactation period into resistant or susceptible to gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) in tropical Mexico. Nine hundred and thirty EPG counts of Pelibuey ewes and 710 of Katahdin ewes were obtained during 10 weeks of lactation. Ewes were segregated into resistant, intermediate and susceptible, using their individual EPG every week. Then, data of every ewe was used to provide a reference classification, which included all the EPG values of each animal. Then, four models were evaluated against such reference. Model 1 was based on the 10-week mean EPG count ± 2 SE. Models 2, 3 and 4 were based on the mean EPG count of 10, 5 and 2 weeks of lactation. The cutoff points for the segregation of ewe in those three models were the quartiles ≤Q1 (low elimination) and ≥Q3 (high elimination). In all the models evaluated, the ewes classified as resistant had lower EPG than intermediates and susceptible (P ewes classified as susceptible had higher EPG than intermediate and resistant (P 70 %). Model 3 tended to show higher sensitivity and specificity with the reference data, but no difference was found with other models. The present study showed that the phenotypic marker EPG might serve to identify and segregate populations of adult ewes during the lactation period. All models used served to segregate Pelibuey and Katahdin ewes into resistant, intermediate and susceptible. The model 3 (mean of 5 weeks) could be used because it required less sampling effort without losing sensitivity or specificity in the segregation of animals. However, model 2 (mean of 2 weeks) was less labour-intensive.

  11. A fire model with distinct crop, pasture, and non-agricultural burning: use of new data and a model-fitting algorithm for FINAL.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam S.; Ward, Daniel S.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Magi, Brian I.; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.

    2018-03-01

    This study describes and evaluates the Fire Including Natural & Agricultural Lands model (FINAL) which, for the first time, explicitly simulates cropland and pasture management fires separately from non-agricultural fires. The non-agricultural fire module uses empirical relationships to simulate burned area in a quasi-mechanistic framework, similar to past fire modeling efforts, but with a novel optimization method that improves the fidelity of simulated fire patterns to new observational estimates of non-agricultural burning. The agricultural fire components are forced with estimates of cropland and pasture fire seasonality and frequency derived from observational land cover and satellite fire datasets. FINAL accurately simulates the amount, distribution, and seasonal timing of burned cropland and pasture over 2001-2009 (global totals: 0.434×106 and 2.02×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 0.454×106 and 2.04×106 km2 yr-1 observed), but carbon emissions for cropland and pasture fire are overestimated (global totals: 0.295 and 0.706 PgC yr-1 modeled, 0.194 and 0.538 PgC yr-1 observed). The non-agricultural fire module underestimates global burned area (1.91×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 2.44×106 km2 yr-1 observed) and carbon emissions (1.14 PgC yr-1 modeled, 1.84 PgC yr-1 observed). The spatial pattern of total burned area and carbon emissions is generally well reproduced across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Central Asia, and Australia, whereas the boreal zone sees underestimates. FINAL represents an important step in the development of global fire models, and offers a strategy for fire models to consider human-driven fire regimes on cultivated lands. At the regional scale, simulations would benefit from refinements in the parameterizations and improved optimization datasets. We include an in-depth discussion of the lessons learned from using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in an interactive optimization for a dynamic global vegetation model.

  12. Modelling mass movement susceptibility for Alpine infrastructure in the Karavank Mountains (Austria/Slovenia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, C.; Kern, K.; Lieb, G. K.

    2012-12-01

    The aim of this study is the generation of indicative susceptibility maps on a regional scale that can be used as a decision support tool for land use management (i.e. risk potential on alpine infrastructure). The study in particular focuses on geomorphological processes (rockfall and debris flows in unconsolidated rock) that reshape the land surface by erosion, transport and deposition. When interacting with human activity (e.g. road, alpine trails) such naturally occurring processes can quickly become natural hazards. The study area is located in the Karavank Mountains, a border region between Austria and Slovenia, and covers approx. 200 sq km with maximum altitudes above 2.000 m a.s.l. (Hochstuhl: 2.237 m a.s.l.). The Karavanks form an east-west striking mountain chain (approx. 120 km total length) of the southeastern Alps that consists mainly of thick Triassic carbonate sequences and, with less extent, Paleozoic carbonate rocks crystalline rocks. The mountain chain is separated into the Northern Karavanks and the Southern Karavanks by a structural boundary (Periadriatic Line). In addition, the area is known for extreme weather events due to Adriatic cyclones with daily accumulated precipitation of more than 200 mm that regularly trigger hazardous and torrential processes like rockfall events and debris flows. To assess the triggering factors and trajectories, two different disposition and process models (one for rockfall and one for debris flow, respectively) were developed. The information about potential source areas was obtained by combining various types of information (e.g. DTM derivatives, geotechnical units, vegetation). Threshold slope values for potential rockfall source areas were attributed to different lithological units according to field observations. The defined threshold slope angles cover values from 42° in Triassic carbonates up to 46° in massive crystalline rocks. For debris flows areas with a slope inclination model is based on the idea

  13. Presynaptic learning and memory with a persistent firing neuron and a habituating synapse: a model of short term persistent habituation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, Kiruthika; Ning, Ning; Dhanasekar, Dhiviya; Li, Guoqi; Shi, Luping; Vadakkepat, Prahlad

    2012-08-01

    Our paper explores the interaction of persistent firing axonal and presynaptic processes in the generation of short term memory for habituation. We first propose a model of a sensory neuron whose axon is able to switch between passive conduction and persistent firing states, thereby triggering short term retention to the stimulus. Then we propose a model of a habituating synapse and explore all nine of the behavioral characteristics of short term habituation in a two neuron circuit. We couple the persistent firing neuron to the habituation synapse and investigate the behavior of short term retention of habituating response. Simulations show that, depending on the amount of synaptic resources, persistent firing either results in continued habituation or maintains the response, both leading to longer recovery times. The effectiveness of the model as an element in a bio-inspired memory system is discussed.

  14. Silencing of flavanone-3-hydroxylase in apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) leads to accumulation of flavanones, but not to reduced fire blight susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flachowsky, Henryk; Halbwirth, Heidi; Treutter, Dieter; Richter, Klaus; Hanke, Magda-Viola; Szankowski, Iris; Gosch, Christian; Stich, Karl; Fischer, Thilo C

    2012-02-01

    Transgenic antisense flavanone-3-hydroxylase apple plants were produced to mimic the effect of the agrochemical prohexadione-Ca on apple leaves. This enzyme inhibitor for 2-oxoglutarate dependent dioxygenases is used as a growth retardant and for control of secondary fire blight of leaves. Like using the agent, silencing of flavanone-3-hydroxylase leads to an accumulation of flavanones in leaves, but in contrast not to the formation of 3-deoxyflavonoids. In prohexadione-Ca treated leaves the 3-deoxyflavonoid luteoforol is formed from accumulating flavanones, acting as an antimicrobial compound against the fire blight pathogen Erwinia amylovora. Seemingly, the silencing of just one of the 2-oxoglutarate dependent dioxygenases (in apple also flavonol synthase and anthocyanidin synthase take part downstream in the pathway) does not provide a sufficiently high ratio of flavanones to dihydroflavonols. This seems to be needed to let the dihydroflavonol-4-reductase/flavanone-4-reductase enzyme reduce flavanones to luteoforol, and to let this be reduced by the leucoanthocyanidin-4-reductase/3-deoxyleucoanthocyanidin-4-reductase, each acting with their respective weak secondary activities. Accordingly, also the intended inducible resistance to fire blight by prohexadione-Ca is not observed with the antisense flavanone-3-hydroxylase apple plants. On the other hand, for most transgenic lines with strong flavanone-4-reductase down-regulation, up-regulation of gene expression for the other flavonoid genes was found. This provides further evidence for the feedback regulation of flavonoid gene expression having been previously reported for the prohexadione-Ca inhibited apple plants. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  15. The spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility applying artificial neural network and logistic regression models: A case study of Inje, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saro, Lee; Woo, Jeon Seong; Kwan-Young, Oh; Moung-Jin, Lee

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs) followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS). These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50%) and a test set (50%). A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10%) was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%). Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, `slope' yielded the highest weight value (1.330), and `aspect' yielded the lowest value (1.000). This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.

  16. The spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility applying artificial neural network and logistic regression models: A case study of Inje, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saro Lee

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS. These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50% and a test set (50%. A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10% was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%. Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, ‘slope’ yielded the highest weight value (1.330, and ‘aspect’ yielded the lowest value (1.000. This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.

  17. Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, K.; Kasischke, E. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Turetsky, M. R.; Kane, E. S.

    2010-01-01

    Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface

  18. Magnesium sulfate treatment reverses seizure susceptibility and decreases neuroinflammation in a rat model of severe preeclampsia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbie Chapman Johnson

    Full Text Available Eclampsia, defined as unexplained seizure in a woman with preeclampsia, is a life-threatening complication of pregnancy with unclear etiology. Magnesium sulfate (MgSO4 is the leading eclamptic seizure prophylactic, yet its mechanism of action remains unclear. Here, we hypothesized severe preeclampsia is a state of increased seizure susceptibility due to blood-brain barrier (BBB disruption and neuroinflammation that lowers seizure threshold. Further, MgSO4 decreases seizure susceptibility by protecting the BBB and preventing neuroinflammation. To model severe preeclampsia, placental ischemia (reduced uteroplacental perfusion pressure; RUPP was combined with a high cholesterol diet (HC to cause maternal endothelial dysfunction. RUPP+HC rats developed symptoms associated with severe preeclampsia, including hypertension, oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction and fetal and placental growth restriction. Seizure threshold was determined by quantifying the amount of pentylenetetrazole (PTZ; mg/kg required to elicit seizure in RUPP + HC ± MgSO4 and compared to normal pregnant controls (n = 6/group; gestational day 20. RUPP+HC rats were more sensitive to PTZ with seizure threshold being ∼ 65% lower vs. control (12.4 ± 1.7 vs. 36.7 ± 3.9 mg/kg PTZ; p<0.05 that was reversed by MgSO4 (45.7 ± 8.7 mg/kg PTZ; p<0.05 vs. RUPP+HC. BBB permeability to sodium fluorescein, measured in-vivo (n = 5-7/group, was increased in RUPP+HC vs. control rats, with more tracer passing into the brain (15.9 ± 1.0 vs. 12.2 ± 0.3 counts/gram ×1000; p<0.05 and was unaffected by MgSO4 (15.6 ± 1.0 counts/gram ×1000; p<0.05 vs. controls. In addition, RUPP+HC rats were in a state of neuroinflammation, indicated by 35 ± 2% of microglia being active compared to 9 ± 2% in normal pregnancy (p<0.01; n = 3-8/group. MgSO4 treatment reversed neuroinflammation, reducing microglial activation to 6 ± 2% (p<0.01 vs. RUPP+HC. Overall, RUPP+HC rats were in a state of augmented

  19. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D.; Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T.; Husted, B.; Magnusson, T.; Joerud, F.

    2013-05-01

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  20. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  1. Spatial probability models of fire in the desert grasslands of the southwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fire is an important driver of ecological processes in semiarid environments; however, the role of fire in desert grasslands of the Southwestern US is controversial and the regional fire distribution is largely unknown. We characterized the spatial distribution of fire in the desert grassland region...

  2. Modeling of multi-strata forest fire severity using Landsat TM data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Q. Meng; R.K. Meentemeyer

    2011-01-01

    Most of fire severity studies use field measures of composite burn index (CBI) to represent forest fire severity and fit the relationships between CBI and Landsat imagery derived differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) to predict and map fire severity at unsampled locations. However, less attention has been paid on the multi-strata forest fire severity, which...

  3. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  4. Aotus infulatus monkey is susceptible to Plasmodium falciparum infection and may constitute an alternative experimental model for malaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carvalho Leonardo JM

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Aotus is one of the WHO-recommended primate models for studies in malaria, and several species can be infected with Plasmodium falciparum or P. vivax. Here we describe the successful infection of the species A. infulatus from eastern Amazon with blood stages of P. falciparum. Both intact and splenectomized animals were susceptible to infection; the intact ones were able to keep parasitemias at lower levels for several days, but developed complications such as severe anemia; splenectomized monkeys developed higher parasitemias but no major complications. We conclude that A. infulatus is susceptible to P. falciparum infection and may represent an alternative model for studies in malaria.

  5. Modelling of limestone injection for SO2 capture in a coal fired utility boiler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacik, G.J.; Reid, K.; McDonald, M.M.; Knill, K.

    1997-01-01

    A computer model was developed for simulating furnace sorbent injection for SO 2 capture in a full scale utility boiler using TASCFlow TM computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software. The model makes use of a computational grid of the superheater section of a tangentially fired utility boiler. The computer simulations are three dimensional so that the temperature and residence time distribution in the boiler could be realistically represented. Results of calculations of simulated sulphur capture performance of limestone injection in a typical utility boiler operation were presented

  6. Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

    2010-01-01

    This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

  7. Remodeling of repolarization and arrhythmia susceptibility in a myosin-binding protein C knockout mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toib, Amir; Zhang, Chen; Borghetti, Giulia; Zhang, Xiaoxiao; Wallner, Markus; Yang, Yijun; Troupes, Constantine D; Kubo, Hajime; Sharp, Thomas E; Feldsott, Eric; Berretta, Remus M; Zalavadia, Neil; Trappanese, Danielle M; Harper, Shavonn; Gross, Polina; Chen, Xiongwen; Mohsin, Sadia; Houser, Steven R

    2017-09-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is one of the most common genetic cardiac diseases and among the leading causes of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the young. The cellular mechanisms leading to SCD in HCM are not well known. Prolongation of the action potential (AP) duration (APD) is a common feature predisposing hypertrophied hearts to SCD. Previous studies have explored the roles of inward Na + and Ca 2+ in the development of HCM, but the role of repolarizing K + currents has not been defined. The objective of this study was to characterize the arrhythmogenic phenotype and cellular electrophysiological properties of mice with HCM, induced by myosin-binding protein C (MyBPC) knockout (KO), and to test the hypothesis that remodeling of repolarizing K + currents causes APD prolongation in MyBPC KO myocytes. We demonstrated that MyBPC KO mice developed severe hypertrophy and cardiac dysfunction compared with wild-type (WT) control mice. Telemetric electrocardiographic recordings of awake mice revealed prolongation of the corrected QT interval in the KO compared with WT control mice, with overt ventricular arrhythmias. Whole cell current- and voltage-clamp experiments comparing KO with WT mice demonstrated ventricular myocyte hypertrophy, AP prolongation, and decreased repolarizing K + currents. Quantitative RT-PCR analysis revealed decreased mRNA levels of several key K + channel subunits. In conclusion, decrease in repolarizing K + currents in MyBPC KO ventricular myocytes contributes to AP and corrected QT interval prolongation and could account for the arrhythmia susceptibility. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Ventricular myocytes isolated from the myosin-binding protein C knockout hypertrophic cardiomyopathy mouse model demonstrate decreased repolarizing K + currents and action potential and QT interval prolongation, linking cellular repolarization abnormalities with arrhythmia susceptibility and the risk for sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Copyright © 2017

  8. Landslide susceptibility mapping along PLUS expressways in Malaysia using probabilistic based model in GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Norbazlan M.; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2014-06-01

    PLUS Berhad holds the concession for a total of 987 km of toll expressways in Malaysia, the longest of which is the North-South Expressway or NSE. Acting as the backbone' of the west coast of the peninsula, the NSE stretches from the Malaysian-Thai border in the north to the border with neighbouring Singapore in the south, linking several major cities and towns along the way. North-South Expressway in Malaysia contributes to the country economic development through trade, social and tourism sector. Presently, the highway is good in terms of its condition and connection to every state but some locations need urgent attention. Stability of slopes at these locations is of most concern as any instability can cause danger to the motorist. In this paper, two study locations have been analysed; they are Gua Tempurung (soil slope) and Jelapang (rock slope) which are obviously having two different characteristics. These locations passed through undulating terrain with steep slopes where landslides are common and the probability of slope instability due to human activities in surrounding areas is high. A combination of twelve (12) landslide conditioning factors database on slope stability such as slope degree and slope aspect were extracted from IFSAR (interoferometric synthetic aperture radar) while landuse, lithology and structural geology were constructed from interpretation of high resolution satellite data from World View II, Quickbird and Ikonos. All this information was analysed in geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping using probabilistic based frequency ratio model. Consequently, information on the slopes such as inventories, condition assessments and maintenance records were assessed through total expressway maintenance management system or better known as TEMAN. The above mentioned system is used by PLUS as an asset management and decision support tools for maintenance activities along the highways as well as for data

  9. Landslide susceptibility mapping along PLUS expressways in Malaysia using probabilistic based model in GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusof, Norbazlan M; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2014-01-01

    PLUS Berhad holds the concession for a total of 987 km of toll expressways in Malaysia, the longest of which is the North-South Expressway or NSE. Acting as the backbone' of the west coast of the peninsula, the NSE stretches from the Malaysian-Thai border in the north to the border with neighbouring Singapore in the south, linking several major cities and towns along the way. North-South Expressway in Malaysia contributes to the country economic development through trade, social and tourism sector. Presently, the highway is good in terms of its condition and connection to every state but some locations need urgent attention. Stability of slopes at these locations is of most concern as any instability can cause danger to the motorist. In this paper, two study locations have been analysed; they are Gua Tempurung (soil slope) and Jelapang (rock slope) which are obviously having two different characteristics. These locations passed through undulating terrain with steep slopes where landslides are common and the probability of slope instability due to human activities in surrounding areas is high. A combination of twelve (12) landslide conditioning factors database on slope stability such as slope degree and slope aspect were extracted from IFSAR (interoferometric synthetic aperture radar) while landuse, lithology and structural geology were constructed from interpretation of high resolution satellite data from World View II, Quickbird and Ikonos. All this information was analysed in geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping using probabilistic based frequency ratio model. Consequently, information on the slopes such as inventories, condition assessments and maintenance records were assessed through total expressway maintenance management system or better known as TEMAN. The above mentioned system is used by PLUS as an asset management and decision support tools for maintenance activities along the highways as well as for

  10. Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A. Spies

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than

  11. Landslide susceptibility mapping for a part of North Anatolian Fault Zone (Northeast Turkey) using logistic regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, Gökhan; aytekin, mustafa; banu ikizler, sabriye; angın, zekai

    2013-04-01

    The North Anatolian Fault is know as one of the most active and destructive fault zone which produced many earthquakes with high magnitudes. Along this fault zone, the morphology and the lithological features are prone to landsliding. However, many earthquake induced landslides were recorded by several studies along this fault zone, and these landslides caused both injuiries and live losts. Therefore, a detailed landslide susceptibility assessment for this area is indispancable. In this context, a landslide susceptibility assessment for the 1445 km2 area in the Kelkit River valley a part of North Anatolian Fault zone (Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey) was intended with this study, and the results of this study are summarized here. For this purpose, geographical information system (GIS) and a bivariate statistical model were used. Initially, Landslide inventory maps are prepared by using landslide data determined by field surveys and landslide data taken from General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration. The landslide conditioning factors are considered to be lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, topographical elevatio