Sample records for modeling fire susceptibility
-
Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate
2013-12-01
The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.
-
Hong, Haoyuan; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas; Ilia, Ioanna; Liu, Junzhi; Zhu, A-Xing; Xu, Chong
2018-07-15
The main objective of the present study was to utilize Genetic Algorithms (GA) in order to obtain the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and apply data mining methods for constructing a forest fire susceptibility map. In the proposed approach, a Random Forest (RF) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to produce a forest fire susceptibility map for the Dayu County which is located in southwest of Jiangxi Province, China. For this purpose, historic forest fires and thirteen forest fire related variables were analyzed, namely: elevation, slope angle, aspect, curvature, land use, soil cover, heat load index, normalized difference vegetation index, mean annual temperature, mean annual wind speed, mean annual rainfall, distance to river network and distance to road network. The Natural Break and the Certainty Factor method were used to classify and weight the thirteen variables, while a multicollinearity analysis was performed to determine the correlation among the variables and decide about their usability. The optimal set of variables, determined by the GA limited the number of variables into eight excluding from the analysis, aspect, land use, heat load index, distance to river network and mean annual rainfall. The performance of the forest fire models was evaluated by using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) based on the validation dataset. Overall, the RF models gave higher AUC values. Also the results showed that the proposed optimized models outperform the original models. Specifically, the optimized RF model gave the best results (0.8495), followed by the original RF (0.8169), while the optimized SVM gave lower values (0.7456) than the RF, however higher than the original SVM (0.7148) model. The study highlights the significance of feature selection techniques in forest fire susceptibility, whereas data mining methods could be considered as a valid approach for forest fire susceptibility modeling
-
Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections
Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka
2004-01-01
Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dieu Tien Bui
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The Cat Ba National Park area (Vietnam with its tropical forest is recognized as being part of the world biodiversity conservation by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO and is a well-known destination for tourists, with around 500,000 travelers per year. This area has been the site for many research projects; however, no project has been carried out for forest fire susceptibility assessment. Thus, protection of the forest including fire prevention is one of the main concerns of the local authorities. This work aims to produce a tropical forest fire susceptibility map for the Cat Ba National Park area, which may be helpful for the local authorities in forest fire protection management. To obtain this purpose, first, historical forest fires and related factors were collected from various sources to construct a GIS database. Then, a forest fire susceptibility model was developed using Kernel logistic regression. The quality of the model was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC, and five statistical evaluation measures. The usability of the resulting model is further compared with a benchmark model, the support vector machine (SVM. The results show that the Kernel logistic regression model has a high level of performance in both the training and validation dataset, with a prediction capability of 92.2%. Since the Kernel logistic regression model outperforms the benchmark model, we conclude that the proposed model is a promising alternative tool that should also be considered for forest fire susceptibility mapping in other areas. The results of this study are useful for the local authorities in forest planning and management.
-
Timing of susceptibility to post-fire debris flows in the western USA
DeGraff, Jerome V.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.
2015-01-01
Watersheds recently burned by wildfires can have an increased susceptibility to debris flow, although little is known about how long this susceptibility persists, and how it changes over time. We here use a compilation of 75 debris-flow response and fire-ignition dates, vegetation and bedrock class, rainfall regime, and initiation process from throughout the western U.S. to address these issues. The great majority (85 percent) of debris flows occurred within the first 12 months following wildfire, with 71 percent within the first six months. Seven percent of the debris flows occurred between 1 and 1.5 years after a fire, or during the second rainy season to impact an area. Within the first 1.5 years following fires, all but one of the debris flows initiated through runoff-dominated processes, and debris flows occurred in similar proportions in forested and non-forested landscapes. Geologic materials affected how long debris-flow activity persisted, and the timing of debris flows varied within different rainfall regimes. A second, later period of increased debris flow susceptibility between 2.2 and 10 years after fires is indicated by the remaining 8 percent of events, which occurred primarily in forested terrains and initiated largely through landslide processes. The short time period between fire and debris-flow response within the first 1.5 years after ignition, and the longer-term response between 2.2 and 10 years after fire, demonstrate the necessity of both rapid and long-term reactions by land managers and emergency-response agencies to mitigate hazards from debris flows from recently burned areas in the western U.S.
-
Comparing two models for post-wildfire debris flow susceptibility mapping
Cramer, J.; Bursik, M. I.; Legorreta Paulin, G.
2017-12-01
Traditionally, probabilistic post-fire debris flow susceptibility mapping has been performed based on the typical method of failure for debris flows/landslides, where slip occurs along a basal shear zone as a result of rainfall infiltration. Recent studies have argued that post-fire debris flows are fundamentally different in their method of initiation, which is not infiltration-driven, but surface runoff-driven. We test these competing models by comparing the accuracy of the susceptibility maps produced by each initiation method. Debris flow susceptibility maps are generated according to each initiation method for a mountainous region of Southern California that recently experienced wildfire and subsequent debris flows. A multiple logistic regression (MLR), which uses the occurrence of past debris flows and the values of environmental parameters, was used to determine the probability of future debris flow occurrence. The independent variables used in the MLR are dependent on the initiation method; for example, depth to slip plane, and shear strength of soil are relevant to the infiltration initiation, but not surface runoff. A post-fire debris flow inventory serves as the standard to compare the two susceptibility maps, and was generated by LiDAR analysis and field based ground-truthing. The amount of overlap between the true locations where debris flow erosion can be documented, and where the MLR predicts high probability of debris flow initiation was statistically quantified. The Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) was used to compare the two models, and the results of the FMS comparison suggest that surface runoff-driven initiation better explains debris flow occurrence. Wildfire can breed conditions that induce debris flows in areas that normally would not be prone to them. Because of this, nearby communities at risk may not be equipped to protect themselves against debris flows. In California, there are just a few months between wildland fire season and the wet
-
Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dominik Kulakowski
Full Text Available The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand
-
Fire blight caused by Erwinia amylovora (EA) is one of the most serious diseases of plants in the family Rosaceae, and Quince (Cydonia oblonga Mill.) is considered one of the most susceptible host genera. Apple (Malus sp.) and pear (Pyrus sp.) cultivars ranging from most susceptible to most resistan...
-
Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager
2013-01-01
For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...
-
Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.
Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T; Bebi, Peter
2016-01-01
The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand-replacing fires were
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hamid reza Pourghasemi
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to assess forest fire susceptibility maps (FFSMs and their performances comparison using modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP and Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL models in a geographic information system (GIS environment. This study was carried out in the Minudasht Forests, Golestan Province, Iran, and was conducted in three main stages such as spatial data construction, forest fire modelling using M-AHP and MFL, and validation of constructed models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve. At first, seven conditioning factors, such as altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, annual temperature, wind effect, land use, and normalized different vegetation index, were extracted from the spatial database. In the next step, FFSMs were prepared using M-AHP and MFL modules in a Netcad-GIS Architect environment. Finally, the ROC curves and area under the curves (AUCs were estimated for validation purposes. The results showed that the AUCs for MFL and M-AHP are 88.20% and 77.72%, respectively. The results obtained in this study also showed that the MFL model performed better than the M-AHP model. These FFSMs can be applied for land use planning, management, and prevention of future fire hazards.
-
Leicht-Young, Stacey A.; Pavlovic, Noel B.; Grundel, Ralph
2013-01-01
Fire effects on invasive species are an important land management issue in areas subjected to prescribed fires as well as wildfires. These effects on invasive species can be manifested across life stages. The liana Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) is a widespread invader of eastern US habitats including those where fire management is in practice. This study examined if prescribed fire makes these habitats more susceptible to invasion of C. orbiculatus by seed at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore. Four treatments (control, litter removed, high and low intensity fire) were applied in six habitat types (sand savanna/woodland, sand prairie, moraine prairie, sand oak forest, beech-maple forest, and oak-hickory forest) and germinating seedlings were tracked over two growing seasons. Treatment did not have a significant effect on the germination, survival, or biomass of C. orbiculatus. However, habitat type did influence these responses mostly in the first growing season. Moraine prairie, beech-maple forest, and oak-hickory forests had the greatest peak percentage of germinants. Moraine prairie had significantly greater survival than oak forest and savanna habitats. Control plots with intact litter, and the moraine prairie habitat had the tallest seedlings at germination, while tallest final heights and greatest aboveground biomass were highest in oak forest. Thus, fire and litter removal did not increase the susceptibility of these habitats to germination and survival of C. orbiculatus. These results indicate that most eastern US habitats are vulnerable to invasion by this species via seed regardless of the level or type of disturbance to the litter layer.
-
Historical Susceptibility of Forest Fires in the Carajas Region, Brazil
Conceicao, M. C.; Rodrigues, R. A.; Cordeiro, R. C.; Barbosa, M. R.; Santos, D. D.; Turcq, B. J.; Seoane, J. S.; Sifeddine, A.
2008-12-01
The Carajas Region in the Para state, nowadays keeps a vast area of forests protected by Units of Conservation and Indigenous Land. Despite the efforts and investments done by private companies and government agencies to prevent forest fires, they are still registered, being one of the major factors of degradation of forests, flora and fauna. Thus there is a need to improve the understanding of these burning processes at present, and its evolution in different time scales, which allows comparison between patterns of fire occurrences related to climate and human reasons. This study aims to assess the evolution of the climate of Carajas region along the Quaternary, with emphasis on natural occurrence of fires related to historical events palaeoclimatic. For this a sediment core of a lake with 450 cm of depth was collected. Chronology is being determined by the radiocarbon method. Ours specific objectives are quantify and qualify the source of sedimentary material, determine concentrations of biogenic elements and minerals, through granulometric and mineralogical analyses and of quality and quantity of organic matter through the establishment of elementary (the C/N) and isotopic ratios (ä13C and ä15N). The dimensions of processes linked to the biomass burning will be determined by quantifying of charcoal fragments resulting from fires through microscopic analysis. This seeks to reconstruct the environmental scene and paleoclimatics conditions related to events of biomass burning, demonstrating the susceptibility of this historic region to the occurrence of fires according to the different climate stages identified.
-
Mihai, Bogdan; Savulescu, Ionut
2014-05-01
Forest fires in Romanian Carpathians became a frequent phenomenon during the last decade, although local climate and other environmental features did not create typical conditions. From 2004, forest fires affect in Romania more than 100 hectares/year of different forest types (deciduous and coniferous). Their magnitude and frequency are not known, since a historical forest fire inventory does not exist (only press papers and local witness for some selected events). Forest fires features the summer dry periods but there are dry autumns and early winter periods with events of different magnitudes. The application we propose is based on an empirical modeling of forest fire susceptibility in a typical mountain area from the Southern Carpathians, the Iezer Mountains (2462 m). The study area features almost all the altitudinal vegetation zones of the European temperate mountains, from the beech zone, to the coniferous zone, the subalpine and the alpine zones (Mihai et al., 2007). The analysis combines GIS and remote sensing models (Chuvieco et al., 2012), starting from the ideas that forest fires are featured by the ignition zones and then by the fire propagation zones. The first data layer (ignition zones) is the result of the crossing between the ignition factors: lightning - points of multitemporal occurence and anthropogenic activities (grazing, tourism and traffic) and the ignition zones (forest fuel zonation - forest stands, soil cover and topoclimatic factor zonation). This data is modelled from different sources: the MODIS imagery fire product (Hantson et al., 2012), detailed topographic maps, multitemporal orthophotos at 0.5 m resolution, Landsat multispectral imagery, forestry cadastre maps, detailed soil maps, meteorological data (the WorldClim digital database) as well as the field survey (mapping using GPS and local observation). The second data layer (fire propagation zones) is the result of the crossing between the forest fuel zonation, obtained with the
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sathiah, P.; Siccama, A.; Visser, D.; Komen, E.
2011-01-01
Fire accident in a containment is a serious threat to nuclear reactors. Fire can cause substantial loss to life and property. The risk posed by fire can also exceed the risk from internal events within a nuclear reactor. Numerous research efforts have been performed to understand and analyze the phenomenon of fire in nuclear reactor and its consequences. Modeling of fire is an important subject in the field of fire safety engineering. Two approaches which are commonly used in fire modeling are zonal modeling and field modeling. The objective of this work is to compare zonal and field modeling approach against a pool fired experiment performed in a well-confined compartment. Numerical simulations were performed against experiments, which were conducted within PRISME program under the framework of OECD. In these experiments, effects of ventilation flow rate on heat release rate in a confined and mechanically ventilated compartment is investigated. Time dependent changes in gas temperature and oxygen mass fraction were measured. The trends obtained by numerical simulation performed using zonal model and field model compares well with experiments. Further validation is needed before this code can be used for fire safety analyses. (author)
-
Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul-Antoine Santoni
2011-01-01
Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.
-
Fire models for assessment of nuclear power plant fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nicolette, V.F.; Nowlen, S.P.
1989-01-01
This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in available fire models for the assessment of nuclear power plants fires. The advantages and disadvantages of three basic types of fire models (zone, field, and control volume) and Sandia's experience with these models will be discussed. It is shown that the type of fire model selected to solve a particular problem should be based on the information that is required. Areas of concern which relate to all nuclear power plant fire models are identified. 17 refs., 6 figs
-
WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model
Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak
2012-01-01
A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...
-
Identifying vulnerable populations to death and injuries from residential fires.
Gilbert, Stanley W; Butry, David T
2017-08-03
This study proposes and evaluates the theory that people who are susceptible to injury in residential fires are not susceptible to death in residential fires and vice versa. It is proposed that the population vulnerable to death in residential fires can be proxied by 'frailty', which is measured as age-gender adjusted fatality rates due to natural causes. This study uses an ecological approach and controls for exposure to estimate the vulnerability of different population groups to death and injury in residential fires. It allows fatalities and injuries to be estimated by different models. Frailty explains fire-related death in adults while not explaining injuries, which is consistent with the idea that deaths and injuries affect disjoint populations. Deaths and injuries in fire are drawn from different populations. People who are susceptible to dying in fires are unlikely to be injured in fires, and the people who are susceptible to injury are unlikely to die in fires. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
-
Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics
Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.
2012-12-01
Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.
-
Performance of fire behavior fuel models developed for the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model
Robert Ziel; W. Matt Jolly
2009-01-01
In 2005, 40 new fire behavior fuel models were published for use with the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model. These new models are intended to augment the original 13 developed in 1972 and 1976. As a compiled set of quantitative fuel descriptions that serve as input to the Rothermel model, the selected fire behavior fuel model has always been critical to the resulting...
-
Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V
2012-12-01
Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Glasa, J; Valasek, L; Weisenpacher, P; Halada, L
2013-01-01
Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations
-
Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.
2013-02-01
Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations
-
FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES
Otto Dvořák
2016-01-01
This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.
-
FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Otto Dvořák
2016-07-01
Full Text Available This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.
1983-01-01
The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified
-
Fire Propagation Tracing Model in the Explicit Treatment of Events of Fire PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Jun Eon
2010-01-01
The fire propagation model in a fire PSA has not been considered analytically instead a simplified analyst's intuition was used to consider the fire propagation path. A fire propagation equation is developed to trace all the propagation paths in the fire area in which a zone is defined to identify various fire ignition sources. An initiation of fire is assumed to take place in a zone. Then, the propagation is modeled with a Boolean equation. Since the explicit fire PSA modeling requires an exclusive event set to sum up the..., exclusive event sets are derived from the fire propagation equation. As an example, we show the exclusive set for a 2x3 rectangular fire zone. Also, the applicability the developed fire equation is discussed when the number of zone increases including the limitation of the explicit fire PSA modeling method
-
Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jacques Henri Balbi
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.
-
Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon
2015-01-01
In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time
-
Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-10-15
In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time.
-
Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni
2015-09-01
The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.
-
Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni
2015-09-01
The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyun-Joo Lee
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Forest fires and burn severity mosaics have profound impacts on the post-fire dynamics and complexity of forest ecosystems. Numerous studies have investigated the relationship between topographic variables and susceptible tree covers with regard to burn severity. However, these relationships have not been fully elucidated, because most studies have assumed linearity in these relationships. Therefore, we examined the linearity and the nonlinearity in the relationships between topographic variables and susceptible tree covers with burn severity by comparing linear and nonlinear models. The site of the Samcheok fire, the largest recorded forest fire in Korea, was used as the study area. We generated 802 grid cells with a 500-m resolution that encompassed the entire study area and collected a dataset that included the topographic variables and percentage of red pine trees, which are the most susceptible tree cover types in Korea. We used conventional linear models and generalized additive models to estimate the linear and the nonlinear models based on topographic variables and Japanese red pine trees. The results revealed that the percentage of red pine trees had linear effects on burn severity, reinforcing the importance of silviculture and forest management to lower burn severity. Meanwhile, the topographic variables had nonlinear effects on burn severity. Among the topographic variables, elevation had the strongest nonlinear effect on burn severity, possibly by overriding the effects of susceptible fuels over elevation effects or due to the nonlinear effects of topographic characteristics on pre-fire fuel conditions, including the spatial distribution and availability of susceptible tree cover. To validate and generalize the nonlinear effects of elevation and other topographic variables, additional research is required at different fire sites with different tree cover types in different geographic locations.
-
Analytical model for cable tray fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clarke, R.K.
1975-09-01
A model for cable tray fires based on buoyant plume theory is presented. Using the model in conjunction with empirical data on size of natural fires and burning rate of cellulosic materials, estimates are made of the heat flux as a function of vertical and horizontal distance from a tray fire. Both local fires and fires extending along a significant length of tray are considered. For the particular set of fire parameters assumed in the calculations, the current tray separation criteria of five feet vertical and three feet horizontal are found to be marginal for local fires and too small to prevent fire spread for extended tray fires. 8 references. (auth)
-
Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nicolette, V.F.; Yang, K.T.
1995-09-01
This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories' participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia's participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants
-
Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.
2014-01-01
Fire channelling is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep lee-facing slope in a direction transverse to the background winds, and is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and extreme pyro-convection. Recent work using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire model has demonstrated that fire channelling can be characterised as vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VDLS). In t...
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fay, J.A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)]. E-mail: jfay@mit.edu
2006-08-21
A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fay, J.A.
2006-01-01
A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables
-
Firing patterns in the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model.
Naud, Richard; Marcille, Nicolas; Clopath, Claudia; Gerstner, Wulfram
2008-11-01
For simulations of large spiking neuron networks, an accurate, simple and versatile single-neuron modeling framework is required. Here we explore the versatility of a simple two-equation model: the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron. We show that this model generates multiple firing patterns depending on the choice of parameter values, and present a phase diagram describing the transition from one firing type to another. We give an analytical criterion to distinguish between continuous adaption, initial bursting, regular bursting and two types of tonic spiking. Also, we report that the deterministic model is capable of producing irregular spiking when stimulated with constant current, indicating low-dimensional chaos. Lastly, the simple model is fitted to real experiments of cortical neurons under step current stimulation. The results provide support for the suitability of simple models such as the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron for large network simulations.
-
The status and challenge of global fire modelling
Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao
2016-06-01
Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.
-
Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon
2005-03-01
Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model
-
Wildfire and drought dynamics destabilize carbon stores of fire-suppressed forests
J. Mason Earles; Malcolm P. North; Matthew D. Hurteau
2014-01-01
Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many forests in the western United States, making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible...
-
2013 Annual Report: Fire Modeling Institute
Robin J. Innes; Faith Ann Heinsch; Kristine M. Lee
2014-01-01
The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) of the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS), is a national and international resource for fire managers. Located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program at the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory (Fire Lab) in Montana, FMI helps managers utilize fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the...
-
Sun, Ruiyu
It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a
-
Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes
Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban
2008-01-01
A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...
-
Review of UCN 5,6 Fire PSA Model based on ANS Fire PRA Standard
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Joon Eon; Lee, Yoon Hwan
2006-12-01
Recently, under the de-regulation environment, nuclear industry has attempted various approaches to improve the economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). This approach uses the fire risk and performance information to manage the resources effectively and efficiently that are used in the operation of NPP. In fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation, fire PSA quality is one of the most important things. The nuclear industry and regulatory body of U.S.A have developed a measure to evaluate the quality of fire PSA. ANS (American Nuclear Society) has developed a guidance called 'ANS Fire PRA Methodology Standard'. However, in Korea, there have been no attempts to evaluate the quality of fire PSA model itself. Therefore, we cannot be sure about the quality of fire PSA whether or not the present fire PSA model can be used for the risk-informed applications such as mentioned above. We can say that the evaluation of fire PSA model quality is the basis for the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation. In this report, we have evaluated the quality of fire PSA model for Ulchin 5 and 6 units based on the ANS Fire PRA Standard. We, also, have derived what items are to be improved to upgrade the quality of fire PSA model and how it can be improved. This report can be used as the base of the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation work in Korea
-
Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape
Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.
2011-12-01
Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of
-
FIRE BLIGHT SUSCEPTIBILITY OF SOME PEAR VARIETIES (ERWINIA AMYLOVORA, BURILL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zsolt Jakab- Ilyefalv
2012-01-01
Full Text Available At Bistriţa Fruit Research and Development Station, in a pear collection, planted with 44 varieties, there has been studied the susceptibility to fire blight (Erwinia amylovora,Burill. During the vegetation period, phytosanitary treatments to control the disease have been applied using copper based products (copper sulfate, Champion, Funguran, Kocide. Erwinia amylovora infections have been influenced by the rainfall registered in April (70.9 mm and May (104.7 mm and the temperature fluctuations in April-May. The field observations on Erwinia amylvora attack demonstrate that the pear varieties have a different susceptibility to this dangerous bacterium. Evaluation of attack level in the pear collection was done using an evaluation scale with 9 scores using a reference resistance scale for : ‘Highly resistant’ , ‘Moderately resistant’, ‘Susceptible’, ‘Very susceptible’ cultivars . The most sensitive pear varieties in the collection were: ‘De Noiembrie’, ‘Abatele Fetel’, ’Daciana’, ’Triumf’, ’Williams Boway’, ’Margareta Marillat’, ’Beauty Tomme’, ‘Williams rosu’, ’Aromata de Bistrita’, ’Jeanne d`Arc’, ’Aramiu de Somes’, ’Belle des Arbres’, ’Zorka’ representing 13.64% of the total pear varieties. In several cultivars there have been observed increased symptoms, a very high susceptibility of infections leading to complete scorching of trees: Jeanne d`Arc’, Williams rosu’, ‘Triumf’, ‘Aromata de Bistrita’, ‘Zorka’. Strong attack symtoms were observed at the pear cultivars ‘Cure’, ‘Euras, ’Ciuda’ ‘Highland’, ‘Precoce Morettini’, ’Monica’, ’Cadillac’, ’Juliana’, ’Somesan’, ’Beurré Hardenpont’ these cultivars being susceptible to Erwinia amylovora , representing 40.91 % of total genotypes . Cultivars ‘Untoasa Geoagiu’, ‘Beurre Hardy’, ‘Trivale’ manifested a certain tolerance to Erwinia amylovora , no attack symptoms being
-
Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire
Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne
2016-04-01
Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.
-
Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon
2015-01-01
In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences
-
Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-10-15
In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
De-Cheng, Chen; Chung-Kung, Lo; Tsu-Jen, Lin; Ching-Hui, Wu; Lin, James C.
2004-01-01
The living fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models for all three operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan had been established in December 2000. In that study, a scenario-based PRA approach was adopted to systematically evaluate the fire and smoke hazards and associated risks. Using these fire PRA models developed, a risk-informed application project had also been completed in December 2002 for the evaluation of cable-tray fire-barrier wrapping exemption. This paper presents a new application of the fire PRA models to fire protection issues using the fire protection significance determination process (FP SDP). The fire protection issues studied may involve the selection of appropriate compensatory measures during the period when an automatic fire detection or suppression system in a safety-related fire zone becomes inoperable. The compensatory measure can either be a 24-hour fire watch or an hourly fire patrol. The living fire PRA models were used to estimate the increase in risk associated with the fire protection issue in terms of changes in core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF). In compliance with SDP at-power and the acceptance guidelines specified in RG 1.174, the fire protection issues in question can be grouped into four categories; red, yellow, white and green, in accordance with the guidelines developed for FD SDP. A 24-hour fire watch is suggested only required for the yellow condition, while an hourly fire patrol may be adopted for the white condition. More limiting requirement is suggested for the red condition, but no special consideration is needed for the green condition. For the calculation of risk measures, risk impacts from any additional fire scenarios that may have been introduced, as well as more severe initiating events and fire damages that may accompany the fire protection issue should be considered carefully. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the evaluation process. (authors)
-
A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS
Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson
2004-01-01
Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...
-
J. Keith Gilless; Jeremy S. Fried
1998-01-01
A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making...
-
2011-08-02
... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2009-0568] NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling... 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft Report for...), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft for Comment,'' is...
-
Modelling the probability of building fires
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vojtěch Barták
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.
-
Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons.
Peacock, Richard D; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis
1991-01-01
With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system.
-
Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons
Peacock, Richard D.; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis
1991-01-01
With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system. PMID:28184121
-
FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.
1997-06-01
This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF 6 . The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF 6 cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF 6 in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF 6 reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed
-
Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior
Hal E. Anderson
1982-01-01
Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....
-
Simulating wall and corner fire tests on wood products with the OSU room fire model
H. C. Tran
1994-01-01
This work demonstrates the complexity of modeling wall and corner fires in a compartment. The model chosen for this purpose is the Ohio State University (OSU) room fire model. This model was designed to simulate fire growth on walls in a compartment and therefore lends itself to direct comparison with standard room test results. The model input were bench-scale data...
-
Susceptible-infected-recovered and susceptible-exposed-infected models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tome, Tania; De Oliveira, Mario J
2011-01-01
Two stochastic epidemic lattice models, the susceptible-infected-recovered and the susceptible-exposed-infected models, are studied on a Cayley tree of coordination number k. The spreading of the disease in the former is found to occur when the infection probability b is larger than b c = k/2(k - 1). In the latter, which is equivalent to a dynamic site percolation model, the spreading occurs when the infection probability p is greater than p c = 1/(k - 1). We set up and solve the time evolution equations for both models and determine the final and time-dependent properties, including the epidemic curve. We show that the two models are closely related by revealing that their relevant properties are exactly mapped into each other when p = b/[k - (k - 1)b]. These include the cluster size distribution and the density of individuals of each type, quantities that have been determined in closed forms.
-
International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf
2008-09-01
This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being
-
Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siu, N.
1989-01-01
This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs
-
Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.
Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie
2016-01-01
It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.
-
Fire Modeling Institute 2011 Annual Report
Robin J. Innes
2012-01-01
The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI), a part of the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program, provides a bridge between scientists and managers. The mission of FMI is to bring the best available science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear on fire-related management issues across the nation. Resource management...
-
Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.
2015-01-01
Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)
-
Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.
2015-07-01
Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)
-
Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.
2015-07-01
Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)
-
Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.
1996-03-01
Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem 'Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility'. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.)
-
Modeling of air toxics from hydrocarbon pool fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harvey, K.A.; Aydil, M.L.; Barone, J.B.
1996-01-01
While there is guidance for estimating the radiation hazards of fires (ARCHIE), there is little guidance on modeling the dispersion of hazardous materials from fires. The objective of this paper is to provide a review of the methodology used for modeling the impacts of liquid hydrocarbon pool fires. The required input variables for modeling of hydrocarbon pool fires include emission strength, emission duration, and dispersion characteristics. Methods for predicting the products of combustion including the use of literature values, test data, and thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are discussed. The use of energy balances coupled to radiative heat transfer calculations are presented as a method for determining flame temperature. Fire modeling literature is reviewed in order to determine other source release variables such as mass burn rate and duration and flame geometry
-
Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels
Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František
2017-09-01
The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.
-
Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon
2016-01-01
In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.
-
Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-05-15
In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.
-
Development and validation of a physics-based urban fire spread model
HIMOTO, Keisuke; TANAKA, Takeyoshi
2008-01-01
A computational model for fire spread in a densely built urban area is developed. The model is distinct from existing models in that it explicitly describes fire spread phenomena with physics-based knowledge achieved in the field of fire safety engineering. In the model, urban fire is interpreted as an ensemble of multiple building fires; that is, the fire spread is simulated by predicting behaviors of individual building fires under the thermal influence of neighboring building fires. Adopte...
-
A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns
Boer, Matthias
2015-04-01
Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F
-
Modeling fuels and fire effects in 3D: Model description and applications
Francois Pimont; Russell Parsons; Eric Rigolot; Francois de Coligny; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Philippe Dreyfus; Rodman R. Linn
2016-01-01
Scientists and managers critically need ways to assess how fuel treatments alter fire behavior, yet few tools currently exist for this purpose.We present a spatially-explicit-fuel-modeling system, FuelManager, which models fuels, vegetation growth, fire behavior (using a physics-based model, FIRETEC), and fire effects. FuelManager's flexible approach facilitates...
-
Ventilation system in fire modelization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cordero Garcia, S.
2012-01-01
There is a model of fire in an enclosure formed by two rooms. In one of them, it will cause the fire and check how the system of ventilation in different configurations responds. In addition, the behavior of selected targets, which will be a configuration of cables similar to those found in nuclear power stations will be analyzed.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Matsuyama, Ken
2015-01-01
The basic performance for numerical analysis of fire parameters in a compartment by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings, was examined. Special attentions were paid to the effects of compartment geometry under poor ventilation conditions with mechanical systems. The simulations were carried out under conditions corresponding to previous experiments, in which fire parameters have been precisely measured. The comparison between numerical simulations and experiments indicated that the CFAST principally has a capability to represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment, by applying the proper boundary conditions. These results suggest that numerical analysis for time-series of air temperature and smoke concentration in compartments must be a powerful tool for discussion on validity of fire protection schemes. (author)
-
Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the wildland fire emissions information system
Nancy H.F. French; Donald McKenzie; Tyler Erickson; Benjamin Koziol; Michael Billmire; K. Endsley; Naomi K.Y. Scheinerman; Liza Jenkins; Mary E. Miller; Roger Ottmar; Susan Prichard
2014-01-01
As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent...
-
A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times
Eric L. Smith
1987-01-01
Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...
-
Eric J. Gustafson; Patrick A. Zollner; Brian R. Sturtevant; S. He Hong; David J. Mladenoff
2004-01-01
We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to study the effects of six alternative vegetation management scenarios on forest succession and the subsequent risk of canopy fire on a 2791 km2 landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study area is a mix of fire-prone and fire-resistant land types. The alternatives vary the spatial...
-
Model of fire spread around Krsko Power Plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vidmar, P.; Petelin, S.
2001-01-01
The idea behind the article is how to define fire behaviour. The work is based on an analytical study of fire origin, its development and spread. The study is based on thermodynamics, heat transfer and the study of hydrodynamics and combustion, which represent the bases of fire dynamics. The article shows a practical example of a leak of hazardous chemicals from a tank. Because of the inflammability of the fluid, fire may start. We have tried to model fire propagation around the Krsko power plant, and show what extended surrounding area could be affected. The model also considers weather conditions, in particular wind speed and direction. For this purpose we have used the computer code Safer Trace, which is based on zone models. That means that phenomena are described by physical and empirical equations. An imperfection in this computer code is the inability to consider ground topology. However in the case of the Krsko power plant, topology is not so important, as the plan is located in a relatively flat region. Mathematical models are presented. They show the propagation of hazardous fluid in the environment considering meteorological data. The work also shows which data are essential to define fire spread and shows the main considerations of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for external fire event.(author)
-
Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior
Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley
2011-01-01
Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...
-
FireStem2D A two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires
Efthalia K. Chatziefstratiou; Gil Bohrer; Anthony S. Bova; Ravishankar Subramanian; Renato P.M. Frasson; Amy Scherzer; Bret W. Butler; Matthew B. Dickinson
2013-01-01
FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by...
-
Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment
Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.
2017-09-01
Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.
-
BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables
Patricia L. Andrews
2009-01-01
This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...
-
Numerical modeling of fires on gas pipelines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhao Yang; Jianbo Lai; Lu Liu
2011-01-01
When natural gas is released through a hole on a high-pressure pipeline, it disperses in the atmosphere as a jet. A jet fire will occur when the leaked gas meets an ignition source. To estimate the dangerous area, the shape and size of the fire must be known. The evolution of the jet fire in air is predicted by using a finite-volume procedure to solve the flow equations. The model is three-dimensional, elliptic and calculated by using a compressibility corrected version of the k - ξ turbulence model, and also includes a probability density function/laminar flamelet model of turbulent non-premixed combustion process. Radiation heat transfer is described using an adaptive version of the discrete transfer method. The model is compared with the experiments about a horizontal jet fire in a wind tunnel in the literature with success. The influence of wind and jet velocity on the fire shape has been investigated. And a correlation based on numerical results for predicting the stoichiometric flame length is proposed. - Research highlights: → We developed a model to predict the evolution of turbulent jet diffusion flames. → Measurements of temperature distributions match well with the numerical predictions. → A correlation has been proposed to predict the stoichiometric flame length. → Buoyancy effects are higher in the numerical results. → The radiative heat loss is bigger in the experimental results.
-
Large urban fire environment: trends and model city predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.
1983-01-01
The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center
-
Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics
Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan
2007-01-01
Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...
-
Parametric analysis of fire model CFAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Y. H.; Yang, J. Y.; Kim, J. H.
2004-01-01
This paper describes the pump room fire of the nuclear power plant using CFAST fire modeling code developed by NIST. It is determined by the constrained or unconstrained fire, Lower Oxygen Limit (LOL), Radiative Fraction (RF), and the times to open doors, which are the input parameters of CAFST. According to the results, pump room fire is ventilation-controlled fire, so it is adequate that the value of LOL is 10% which is also the default value. It is appeared that the RF does not change the temperature of the upper gas layer. But the level of opening of the penetrating area and the times to opening it have an effect on the temperature of the upper layer, so it is determined that the results of it should be carefully analyzed
-
Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.
De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris
2015-01-01
Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.
-
Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling
Medler, Michael Johns
Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy
-
Development of a Base Model for the New Fire PSA Training
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Kilyoo; Kang, Daeil; Kim, Wee Kyong; Do, Kyu Sik
2013-01-01
US NRC/EPRI issued a new fire PSA method represented by NUREG/CR 6850, and have been training many operators and inspectors to widely spread the new method. However, there is a limitation in time and efficiency for many foreigners, who generally have communication problem, to participate in the EPRI/NRC training to learn the new method. Since it is about time to introduce the new fire PSA method as a regulatory requirement for the fire protection in Korea, a simple and easy-understandable base model for the fire PSA training is required, and KAERI-KINS is jointly preparing the base model for the new fire PSA training. This paper describes how the base model is developed. Using an imaginary simple NPP, a base model of fire PSA following the new fire PSA method was developed in two ways from the internal PSA model. Since we have the base model and know the process of making the fire PSA model, the training for the new fire PSA method can be in detail performed in Korea
-
Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure
Frederick W. Bratten
1982-01-01
A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...
-
Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research
Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.
2016-01-01
Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W. Jiang
2018-04-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML, extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.
-
Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.
2018-04-01
This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.
-
French, N. H. F.; Ottmar, R. D.; Brown, T. J.; Larkin, N. K.
2017-12-01
The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is an integrative research effort to identify and collect critical measurements to improve operational wildland fire and smoke prediction systems. FASMEE has two active phases and one suggested phase. Phase 1 is the analysis and planning process to assess the current state of fire-plume-smoke modeling and to determine the critical measurements required to evaluate and improve these operational fire and smoke models. As the major deliverable for Phase 1, a study plan has been completed that describes the measurement needs, field campaigns, and command, safety and air space de-confliction plans necessary to complete the FASMEE project. Phase 2 is a set of field campaigns to collect data during 2019-2022. Future Improvements would be a set of analyses and model improvements based on the data collected within Phase 2 that is dependent on identifying future funding sources. In this presentation, we will review the FASMEE Study Plan and detailed measurements and conditions expected for the four to five proposed research burns. The recommended measurements during Phase 2 span the four interrelated disciplines of FASMEE: fuels and consumption, fire behavior and energy, plume dynamics and meteorology, and smoke emissions, chemistry, and transport. Fuel type, condition, and consumption during wildland fire relates to several fire impacts including radiative heating, which provides the energy that drives fire dynamics. Local-scale meteorology is an important factor which relates to atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, and transport. Plume dynamics provide the connection between fire behavior and far-field smoke dispersion, because it determines the vertical distribution of the emissions. Guided by the data needs and science questions generated during Phase 1, three wildland fire campaigns were selected. These included the western wildfire campaign (rapid deployment aimed at western wildfires supporting NOAA, NASA, and NSF
-
Modelling methods for co-fired pulverised fuel furnaces
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
L. Ma; M. Gharebaghi; R. Porter; M. Pourkashanian; J.M. Jones; A. Williams [University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom). Energy and Resources Research Institute
2009-12-15
Co-firing of biomass and coal can be beneficial in reducing the carbon footprint of energy production. Accurate modelling of co-fired furnaces is essential to discover potential problems that may occur during biomass firing and to mitigate potential negative effects of biomass fuels, including lower efficiency due to lower burnout and NOx formation issues. Existing coal combustion models should be modified to increase reliability of predictions for biomass, including factors such as increased drag due to non-spherical particle sizes and accounting for organic compounds and the effects they have on NOx emission. Detailed biomass co-firing models have been developed and tested for a range of biomass fuels and show promising results. 32 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.
-
Mathematical modeling of agricultural fires beneath high voltage transmission lines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Zohri, Emad H.; Shafey, Hamdy M.; Abdel-Salam, M.; Ahmed, A.
2011-01-01
This paper presents a mathematical model for agricultural fires based on a multi-phase formulation. The model includes dehydration and pyrolysis of agricultural fuel and pyrolysis products. The model considers a homogeneous distribution of the agricultural solid fuel particles, interacting with the gas flow via source terms. These terms include: drag forces, production of water vapour and pyrolysis products, radiative and convective heat exchange. A multi-phase radiative transfer equation for absorbing-emitting medium is considered to account for the radiative heat exchange between the gas and solid phases of the fire. The main outputs of the present model are most important to study the influence of agricultural fire occurring beneath high voltage transmission lines. The agricultural fire causes a flashover due to the ambient temperature rise and soot accumulation on the insulator of these transmission lines. Numerical results of the present model are obtained for flat grassland fires to study the effects of wind velocity, solid fuel moisture content and ignition length on some selected fire outputs. These outputs include the temperature, velocity, soot volume fraction fields of the gas phase, together with fire propagation rate and flame geometry. The numerical results are compared to the available experimental work in the literature. -- Research highlights: → The model is sensitive to the initial condition of the ignition length affecting the fire propagation rate and width. → The model predicts the effects of both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content on fire propagation rate, in agreement with the available experimental work in the literature. → The model shows that both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content are important factors affecting the fire plume thickness, location, and inclination. → The model is able to visualize the flame geometry through tracing radiative heat rates exceeding a threshold value for flame visibility (60 k
-
F. Li; S. Levis; D. S. Ward
2013-01-01
Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire–climate–vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012a, b), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications....
-
One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Natalie Marie Kehrwald
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.
-
Evaluation of a post-fire tree mortality model for western US conifers
Sharon M. Hood; Charles W McHugh; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Sheri L. Smith
2007-01-01
Accurately predicting fire-caused mortality is essential to developing prescribed fire burn plans and post-fire salvage marking guidelines. The mortality model included in the commonly used USA fire behaviour and effects models, the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS), has not...
-
FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTING MODELS EFFICIENCY IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benjamin Leonardo Alves White
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Knowing how a wildfire will behave is extremely important in order to assist in fire suppression and prevention operations. Since the 1940’s mathematical models to estimate how the fire will behave have been developed worldwide, however, none of them, until now, had their efficiency tested in Brazilian commercial eucalypt plantations nor in other vegetation types in the country. This study aims to verify the accuracy of the Rothermel (1972 fire spread model, the Byram (1959 flame length model, and the fire spread and length equations derived from the McArthur (1962 control burn meters. To meet these objectives, 105 experimental laboratory fires were done and their results compared with the predicted values from the models tested. The Rothermel and Byram models predicted better than McArthur’s, nevertheless, all of them underestimated the fire behavior aspects evaluated and were statistically different from the experimental data.
-
Model of multiroom fire spread
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanaka, Takeyoshi.
1983-01-01
This paper presents a refined version of a mathematical model for predicting the hot gas flow induced by fires in multiroom structures. Two layer zone modeling approach is used in the mathematical formulation of the model. Some of the results of sample calculations of the model are also given for a couple of model structures
-
Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker
2015-01-01
This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...
-
Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Eric J. Gustafson
2008-01-01
We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation. size-based minimum travel time algorithm. and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two-way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on...
-
Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.
2014-05-01
Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the
-
Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model
Patricia L. Andrews
2012-01-01
Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...
-
EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR DESCRIBING FIRE BEHAVIOR IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benjamin Leonardo Alves White
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Modeling forest fire behavior is an important task that can be used to assist in fire prevention and suppression operations. However, according to previous studies, the existing common worldwide fire behavior models used do not correctly estimate the fire behavior in Brazilian commercial hybrid eucalypt plantations. Therefore, this study aims to build new empirical models to predict the fire rate of spread, flame length and fuel consumption for such vegetation. To meet these objectives, 105 laboratory experimental burns were done, where the main fuel characteristics and weather variables that influence fire behavior were controlled and/or measured in each experiment. Dependent and independent variables were fitted through multiple regression analysis. The fire rate of spread proposed model is based on the wind speed, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead fuel moisture content (r2 = 0.86; the flame length model is based on the fuel bed depth, 1-h dead fuel moisture content and wind speed (r2 = 0.72; the fuel consumption proposed model has the 1-h dead fuel moisture, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead dry fuel load as independent variables (r2= 0.80. These models were used to develop a new fire behavior software, the “Eucalyptus Fire Safety System”.
-
Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft
Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.
2015-01-01
An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).
-
Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos
2003-01-01
A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses
-
Numerical Modelling of Fire-Atmosphere Interactions and the 2003 Canberra Bushfires
Simpson, C.; Sturman, A.; Zawar-Reza, P.
2010-12-01
It is well known that the behaviour of a wildland fire is strongly associated with the conditions of its surrounding atmosphere. However, the two-way interactions between fire behaviour and the atmospheric conditions are not well understood. A numerical model is used to simulate wildland fires so that the nature of these fire-atmosphere interactions, and how they might affect fire behaviour, can be further investigated. The 2003 Canberra bushfires are used as a case study due to their highly destructive and unusual behaviour. On the 18th January 2003, these fires spread to the urban suburbs of Canberra, resulting in the loss of four lives and the destruction of over 500 homes. Fire-atmosphere interactions are believed to have played an important role in making these fires so destructive. WRF-Fire is used to perform real data simulations of the 2003 Canberra bushfires. WRF-Fire is a coupled fire-atmosphere model, which combines a semi-empirical fire spread model with an atmospheric model, allowing it to directly simulate the two-way interactions between a fire and its surrounding atmosphere. These simulations show the impact of the presence of a fire on conditions within the atmospheric boundary layer. This modification of the atmosphere, resulting from the injection of heat and moisture released by the fire, appears to have a direct feedback onto the overall fire behaviour. The bushfire simulations presented in this paper provide important scientific insights into the nature of fire-atmosphere interactions for a real situation. It is expected that they will also help fire managers in Australia to better understand why the 2003 Canberra bushfires were so destructive, as well as to gain improved insight into bushfire behaviour in general.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elicson, Tom; Harwood, Bentley; Lucek, Heather; Bouchard, Jim
2011-01-01
Over a 12 month period, a fire PRA was developed for a DOE facility using the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology. The fire PRA modeling included calculation of fire severity factors (SFs) and fire non-suppression probabilities (PNS) for each safe shutdown (SSD) component considered in the fire PRA model. The SFs were developed by performing detailed fire modeling through a combination of CFAST fire zone model calculations and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Component damage times and automatic fire suppression system actuation times calculated in the CFAST LHS analyses were then input to a time-dependent model of fire non-suppression probability. The fire non-suppression probability model is based on the modeling approach outlined in NUREG/CR-6850 and is supplemented with plant specific data. This paper presents the methodology used in the DOE facility fire PRA for modeling fire-induced SSD component failures and includes discussions of modeling techniques for: Development of time-dependent fire heat release rate profiles (required as input to CFAST), Calculation of fire severity factors based on CFAST detailed fire modeling, and Calculation of fire non-suppression probabilities.
-
The susceptibilities in the spin-S Ising model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ainane, A.; Saber, M.
1995-08-01
The susceptibilities of the spin-S Ising model are evaluated using the effective field theory introduced by Tucker et al. for studying general spin-S Ising model. The susceptibilities are studied for all spin values from S = 1/2 to S = 5/2. (author). 12 refs, 4 figs
-
Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xie Yong [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)]. E-mail: yxie@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Xu Jianxue [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China); Jiang Jun [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)
2006-12-15
We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables.
-
Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Jiang Jun
2006-01-01
We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables
-
Use of numerical modeling in design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen
2004-01-01
modification to the motion and reaction due to their non-sphericity. The simulation results show a big difference between the two cases and indicate it is very significant to take into account the non-sphericity of biomass particles in order to model biomass combustion more accurately. Methods to improve...... of numerical modeling. The models currently used to predict solid fuel combustion rely on a spherical particle shape assumption, which may deviate a lot from reality for big biomass particles. A sphere gives a minimum in terms of the surface-area-to-volume ratio, which impacts significantly both motion...... and reaction of a particle. To better understand biomass combustion and thus improve the design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners, non-sphericity of biomass particles is considered. To ease comparison, two cases are numerically studied in a 10m long gas/biomass co-fired burner model. (1) The biomass...
-
Sodium pool fire model for CONACS code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yung, S.C.
1982-01-01
The modeling of sodium pool fires constitutes an important ingredient in conducting LMFBR accident analysis. Such modeling capability has recently come under scrutiny at Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) within the context of developing CONACS, the Containment Analysis Code System. One of the efforts in the CONACS program is to model various combustion processes anticipated to occur during postulated accident paths. This effort includes the selection or modification of an existing model and development of a new model if it clearly contributes to the program purpose. As part of this effort, a new sodium pool fire model has been developed that is directed at removing some of the deficiencies in the existing models, such as SOFIRE-II and FEUNA
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trika Pitana
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires. In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of
-
Construction and Quantification of the One Top model of the Fire Events PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Dae Il; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Han, Sang Hoon
2008-01-01
KAERI constructed the one top model of the fire events PSA for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 by using the 'mapping technique'. The mapping technique was developed for the construction and quantification of external events PSA models with a one top model for an internal events PSA. With 'AIMS', the mapping technique can be implemented by the construction of mapping tables. The mapping tables include fire rooms, fire ignition frequency, related initiating events, fire transfer events, and the internal PSA basic events affected by a fire. The constructed one top fire PSA model is based on previously conducted fire PSA results for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4. In this paper, we introduce the construction procedure and quantification results of the one top model of the fire events PSA by using the mapping technique. As the one top model of the fire events PSA developed in this study is based on the previous study, we also introduce the previous fire PSA approach focused on quantification
-
Modeling fire and other disturbance processes using LANDIS
Stephen R. Shifley; Jian Yang; Hong He
2009-01-01
LANDIS is a landscape decision support tool that models spatial relationships to help managers and planners examine the large-scale, long-term, cumulative effects of succession, harvesting, wildfire, prescribed fire, insects, and disease. It can operate on forest landscapes from a few thousand to a few million acres in extent. Fire modeling capabilities in LANDIS are...
-
A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. D'Andrea
2010-10-01
Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.
-
Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.
Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan
2010-05-01
Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.
-
Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station
Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan
2014-01-01
The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.
-
New Approach in Modelling Indonesian Peat Fire Emission
Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Saharjo, B.; Yokelson, R. J.; Stockwell, C.; Vetrita, Y.; Zhang, X.; Hagen, S. C.; Nurhayati, A. D.; Graham, L.
2017-12-01
Peat fires are a serious problem for Indonesia, producing devastating environmental effects and making the country the 3rd largest emitter of CO2. Extensive fires ravaged vast areas of peatlands in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua during the pronounced El-Nino of 2015, causing international concern when the resultant haze blanketed Indonesia and neighboring countries, severely impacting the health of millions of people. Our recent unprecedented in-situ studies of aerosol and gas emissions from 35 peat fires of varying depths near Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan have documented the range and variability of emissions from these major fires. We strongly suggest revisions to previously recommended IPPC's emission factors (EFs) from peat fires, notably: CO2 (-8%), CH4 (-55%), NH3 (-86%), and CO (+39%). Our findings clearly showed that Indonesian carbon equivalent measurements (100 years) might have been 19% less than what current IPCC emission factors indicate. The results also demonstrate the toxic air quality in the area with HCN, which is almost only emitted by biomass burning, accounting for 0.28% and the carcinogenic compound formaldehyde 0.04% of emissions. However, considerable variation in emissions may exist between peat fires of different Indonesian peat formations, illustrating the need for additional regional field emissions measurements for parameterizing peatland emissions models for all of Indonesia's major peatland areas. Through the continuous mutual research collaboration between the Indonesian and USA scientists, we will implement our standardized field-based analyses of fuels, hydrology, peat burning characteristics and fire emissions to characterize the three major Indonesian peatland formations across four study provinces (Central Kalimantan, Riau, Jambi and West Papua). We will provide spatial and temporal drivers of the modeled emissions and validate them at a national level using biomass burning emissions estimations derived from Visible
-
First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM 4.0, user's guide
Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Robert E. Keane; James K. Brown
1997-01-01
A First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was developed to predict the direct consequences of prescribed fire and wildfire. FOFEM computes duff and woody fuel consumption, smoke production, and fire-caused tree mortality for most forest and rangeland types in the United States. The model is available as a computer program for PC or Data General computer.
-
Lanorte, Antonio; Desantis, Fortunato; Aromando, Angelo; Lasaponara, Rosa
2013-04-01
This paper presents the results we obtained in the context of the FIRE-SAT project during the 2012 operative application of the satellite based tools for fire monitoring. FIRE_SAT project has been funded by the Civil Protection of the Basilicata Region in order to set up a low cost methodology for fire danger monitoring and fire effect estimation based on satellite Earth Observation techniques. To this aim, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ASTER, Landsat TM data were used. Novel data processing techniques have been developed by researchers of the ARGON Laboratory of the CNR-IMAA for the operative monitoring of fire. In this paper we only focus on the danger estimation model which has been fruitfully used since 2008 to 2012 as an reliable operative tool to support and optimize fire fighting strategies from the alert to the management of resources including fire attacks. The daily updating of fire danger is carried out using satellite MODIS images selected for their spectral capability and availability free of charge from NASA web site. This makes these data sets very suitable for an effective systematic (daily) and sustainable low-cost monitoring of large areas. The preoperative use of the integrated model, pointed out that the system properly monitor spatial and temporal variations of fire susceptibility and provide useful information of both fire severity and post fire regeneration capability.
-
Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS
Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.
2014-05-01
Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is
-
Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.
Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H
2014-05-01
Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.
-
Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping
2015-01-01
Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.
-
Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Vacchiano
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995–2009 and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i winter forest fires, (ii winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter–early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %; lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90–0.95. Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation and winter (negative fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.
-
Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley
Vacchiano, Giorgio; Foderi, Cristiano; Berretti, Roberta; Marchi, Enrico; Motta, Renzo
2018-03-01
Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995-2009) and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i) winter forest fires, (ii) winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii) summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter-early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %); lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90-0.95). Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation) and winter (negative) fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.
-
Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Hu, Yongtao; Odman, Mehmet T
2014-09-15
Air quality forecasts generated with chemical transport models can provide valuable information about the potential impacts of fires on pollutant levels. However, significant uncertainties are associated with fire-related emission estimates as well as their distribution on gridded modeling domains. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of fine particulate matter concentrations predicted by a regional-scale air quality model to the spatial and temporal allocation of fire emissions. The assessment was completed by simulating a fire-related smoke episode in which air quality throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area was affected on February 28, 2007. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the significance of emission distribution among the model's vertical layers, along the horizontal plane, and into hourly inputs. Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were highly sensitive to emission injection altitude relative to planetary boundary layer height. Simulations were also responsive to the horizontal allocation of fire emissions and their distribution into single or multiple grid cells. Additionally, modeled concentrations were greatly sensitive to the temporal distribution of fire-related emissions. The analyses demonstrate that, in addition to adequate estimates of emitted mass, successfully modeling the impacts of fires on air quality depends on an accurate spatiotemporal allocation of emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan
2011-12-20
This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.
-
Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.
2013-09-01
We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Poulsen, Annemarie
The aim of this project is to perform an experimental study on the influence of the thermal feedback on the burning behavior of well ventilated pre-flashover fires. For the purpose an experimental method has been developed. Here the same identical objects are tested under free burn conditions...... carried out by Carleton University and NRC-IRC performed on seven different types of fire loads representing commercial premises, comprise the tests used for the study. The results show that for some of the room test the heat release rate increased due to thermal feedback compared to free burn for a pre......-flashover fire. Two phenomena were observed, that relate well to theory was found. In an incipient phase the heat release rate rose with the temperature of the smoke layer/enclosure boundaries. This increase was also found to depend on the flammability properties of the burning object. The results also...
-
Modeling In-Stream Hydro-Geomorphic Processes After 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado
Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.
2016-12-01
Wildfires can have significant impacts on hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Post-fire sediment transport and runoff generation vary by burn severity, precipitation, and vegetation. A need exists to understand these variable relationships and improve parameterization of post-fire hydro-geomorphic models. This research aims to model pre-fire geomorphic and hydrologic processes in Williams Canyon, a watershed burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado. We develop the KINematic Runoff and EROSion (KINEROS) model with Geographical Information System (GIS)-based information, including a Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil classification, precipitation, and soil burn severity for a local reference watershed that is unburned. We transfer these parameters to a channel reach in Williams Canyon (Williams Downstream) and adjust them toward post-fire conditions. We model runoff and sediment yield for several storms following the fire. Three post-fire terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) images (21 April 2013, 14 September 2013, and 16 September 2014) are used to estimate total erosion and deposition at the reach scale. We use the LiDAR-based information to calibrate the post-fire model. Preliminary modeling results indicate 3870-125 kg/ha of sediment in the Williams Downstream reach. The uncalibrated model overestimated (410% in the first year) and underestimated (87.2% in the second year) the erosion. Model calibration reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of sediment to 0.016% for the first year and 0.09% for the second year. The parameters calibrated for the Williams Downstream channel reach will be used to develop models for seven other channel reaches within the area burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire, where the performance can be evaluated with LiDAR estimates. Results of this research will enhance our understanding of wildfire disturbance on coupled hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Findings will also improve model parameterization that can
-
Fire Modeling Institute: FY2012 Annual Report: Bridging scientists and managers
Robin J. Innes
2013-01-01
The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) brings the best available fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear in fire-related management issues. Although located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program of the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, FMI is a national and international resource, serving fire...
-
A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Evan S Schaffer
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.
-
A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.
Schaffer, Evan S; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L F
2013-10-01
Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.
-
Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal
Bastos, A.; Gouveia, C. M.; Dacamara, C. C.; Trigo, R. M.
2011-12-01
Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion. The main goals of the present work are (i) to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii) to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii) to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively. The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998-2009), at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to recover slower than transitional woodland
-
Mathematical modelling of fire in forced ventilated enclosures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cox, G.; Kumar, S.
1985-01-01
The application of a computer fire simulation model to the prediction of conditions in a forced ventilated experimental fire test cell at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is discussed. Comparisons between theoretical and experimental determinations are shown to be in reasonable agreement and areas requiring further research indicated
-
Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.
D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim
2006-01-01
Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...
-
Comparison of the landslide susceptibility models in Taipei Water Source Domain, Taiwan
WU, C. Y.; Yeh, Y. C.; Chou, T. H.
2017-12-01
Taipei Water Source Domain, locating at the southeast of Taipei Metropolis, is the main source of water resource in this region. Recently, the downstream turbidity often soared significantly during the typhoon period because of the upstream landslides. The landslide susceptibilities should be analysed to assess the influence zones caused by different rainfall events, and to ensure the abilities of this domain to serve enough and quality water resource. Generally, the landslide susceptibility models can be established based on either a long-term landslide inventory or a specified landslide event. Sometimes, there is no long-term landslide inventory in some areas. Thus, the event-based landslide susceptibility models are established widely. However, the inventory-based and event-based landslide susceptibility models may result in dissimilar susceptibility maps in the same area. So the purposes of this study were to compare the landslide susceptibility maps derived from the inventory-based and event-based models, and to interpret how to select a representative event to be included in the susceptibility model. The landslide inventory from Typhoon Tim in July, 1994 and Typhoon Soudelor in August, 2015 was collected, and used to establish the inventory-based landslide susceptibility model. The landslides caused by Typhoon Nari and rainfall data were used to establish the event-based model. The results indicated the high susceptibility slope-units were located at middle upstream Nan-Shih Stream basin.
-
Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling
Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.
2013-04-01
Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with
-
Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy
2014-01-01
Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.
-
Fire intensity impacts on post-fire temperate coniferous forest net primary productivity
Sparks, Aaron M.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Smith, Alistair M. S.; Boschetti, Luigi; Johnson, Daniel M.; Cochrane, Mark A.
2018-02-01
Fire is a dynamic ecological process in forests and impacts the carbon (C) cycle through direct combustion emissions, tree mortality, and by impairing the ability of surviving trees to sequester carbon. While studies on young trees have demonstrated that fire intensity is a determinant of post-fire net primary productivity, wildland fires on landscape to regional scales have largely been assumed to either cause tree mortality, or conversely, cause no physiological impact, ignoring the impacted but surviving trees. Our objective was to understand how fire intensity affects post-fire net primary productivity in conifer-dominated forested ecosystems on the spatial scale of large wildland fires. We examined the relationships between fire radiative power (FRP), its temporal integral (fire radiative energy - FRE), and net primary productivity (NPP) using 16 years of data from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) for 15 large fires in western United States coniferous forests. The greatest NPP post-fire loss occurred 1 year post-fire and ranged from -67 to -312 g C m-2 yr-1 (-13 to -54 %) across all fires. Forests dominated by fire-resistant species (species that typically survive low-intensity fires) experienced the lowest relative NPP reductions compared to forests with less resistant species. Post-fire NPP in forests that were dominated by fire-susceptible species were not as sensitive to FRP or FRE, indicating that NPP in these forests may be reduced to similar levels regardless of fire intensity. Conversely, post-fire NPP in forests dominated by fire-resistant and mixed species decreased with increasing FRP or FRE. In some cases, this dose-response relationship persisted for more than a decade post-fire, highlighting a legacy effect of fire intensity on post-fire C dynamics in these forests.
-
The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires
Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.
2014-01-01
Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.
-
Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands
Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.
2007-01-01
In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.
Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo
2015-05-01
The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard
2012-01-01
Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...
-
Forest fire effects on transpiration: process modeling of sapwood area reduction
Michaletz, Sean; Johnson, Edward
2010-05-01
Transpiration is a hydrological process that is strongly affected by forest fires. In crown fires, canopy fine fuels (foliage, buds, and small branches) combust, which kills individual trees and stops transpiration of the entire stand. In surface fires (intensities ≤ 2500 kW m-1), however, effects on transpiration are less predictable becuase heat transfer from the passing fireline can injure or kill fine roots, leaves, and sapwood; post-fire transpiration of forest stands is thus governed by fire effects on individual tree water budgets. Here, we consider fire effects on cross-sectional sapwood area. A two-dimensional model of transient bole heating is used to estimate radial isotherms for a range of fireline intensities typical of surface fires. Isotherms are then used to drive three processes by which heat may reduce sapwood area: 1) necrosis of living cells in contact with xylem conduits, which prevents repair of natural embolism; 2) relaxation of viscoelastic conduit wall polymers (cellulose, hemicelloluse, and lignin), which reduces cross-sectional conduit area; and 3) boiling of metastable water under tension, which causes conduit embolism. Results show that these processes operate on different time scales, suggesting that fire effects on transpiration vary with time since fire. The model can be linked with a three-dimensional physical fire spread model to predict size-dependent effects on individual trees, which can be used to estimate scaling of individual tree and stand-level transpiration.
-
Wuttke, Manfred W.
2017-04-01
At LIAG, we use numerical models to develop and enhance understanding of coupled transport processes and to predict the dynamics of the system under consideration. Topics include geothermal heat utilization, subrosion processes, and spontaneous underground coal fires. Although the details make it inconvenient if not impossible to apply a single code implementation to all systems, their investigations go along similar paths: They all depend on the solution of coupled transport equations. We thus saw a need for a modular code system with open access for the various communities to maximize the shared synergistic effects. To this purpose we develop the oops! ( open object-oriented parallel solutions) - toolkit, a C++ class library for the numerical solution of mathematical models of coupled thermal, hydraulic and chemical processes. This is used to develop problem-specific libraries like acme( amendable coal-fire modeling exercise), a class library for the numerical simulation of coal-fires and applications like kobra (Kohlebrand, german for coal-fire), a numerical simulation code for standard coal-fire models. Basic principle of the oops!-code system is the provision of data types for the description of space and time dependent data fields, description of terms of partial differential equations (pde), their discretisation and solving methods. Coupling of different processes, described by their particular pde is modeled by an automatic timescale-ordered operator-splitting technique. acme is a derived coal-fire specific application library, depending on oops!. If specific functionalities of general interest are implemented and have been tested they will be assimilated into the main oops!-library. Interfaces to external pre- and post-processing tools are easily implemented. Thus a construction kit which can be arbitrarily amended is formed. With the kobra-application constructed with acme we study the processes and propagation of shallow coal seam fires in particular in
-
The Feasibility of Multiscale Modeling of Tunnel Fires Using FDS 6
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vermesi, Izabella; Colella, Francesco; Rein, Guillermo
2014-01-01
The HVAC component of FDS 6 was used to divide a 1.2km tunnel into a 3D near fire area and a 1D area further away from the fire in order to investigate the feasibility of multiscale modeling of tunnel fires with this new feature in FDS. The two sub-models were coupled directly. The results were...... compared with reference works on multiscale modeling and the outcome is considered positive, with a deviation of less than 5% in magnitude of relevant parameters, yet with a significant reduction of the simulation runtime. As such, the multiscale method is deemed feasible for simulating tunnel fires in FDS......6. However, the simplifications that are made in this work require further investigation in order to take full advantage of the potential of this computational method. INTRODUCTION Multiscale modeling for tunnel flows and fires has previously been studied using RANS general purpose CFD software...
-
Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes.
Donald McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg
2006-01-01
Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes...
-
The Morris-Lecar neuron model embeds a leaky integrate-and-fire model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Susanne; Greenwood, Priscilla
2013-01-01
We showthat the stochastic Morris–Lecar neuron, in a neighborhood of its stable point, can be approximated by a two-dimensional Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) modulation of a constant circular motion. The associated radial OU process is an example of a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model prior to firing...
-
Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fermín J. Alcasena
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain. Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306 in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km. Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.
-
Fire-driven alien invasion in a fire-adapted ecosystem
Keeley, Jon E.; Brennan, Teresa J.
2012-01-01
Disturbance plays a key role in many alien plant invasions. However, often the main driver of invasion is not disturbance per se but alterations in the disturbance regime. In some fire-adapted shrublands, the community is highly resilient to infrequent, high-intensity fires, but changes in the fire regime that result in shorter fire intervals may make these communities more susceptible to alien plant invasions. This study examines several wildfire events that resulted in short fire intervals in California chaparral shrublands. In one study, we compared postfire recovery patterns in sites with different prefire stand ages (3 and 24 years), and in another study we compared sites that had burned once in four years with sites that had burned twice in this period. The population size of the dominant native shrub Adenostoma fasciculatum was drastically reduced following fire in the 3-year sites relative to the 24-year sites. The 3-year sites had much greater alien plant cover and significantly lower plant diversity than the 24-year sites. In a separate study, repeat fires four years apart on the same sites showed that annual species increased significantly after the second fire, and alien annuals far outnumbered native annuals. Aliens included both annual grasses and annual forbs and were negatively correlated with woody plant cover. Native woody species regenerated well after the first fire but declined after the second fire, and one obligate seeding shrub was extirpated from two sites by the repeat fires. It is concluded that some fire-adapted shrublands are vulnerable to changes in fire regime, and this can lead to a loss of native diversity and put the community on a trajectory towards type conversion from a woody to an herbaceous system. Such changes result in alterations in the proportion of natives to non-natives, changes in functional types from deeply rooted shrubs to shallow rooted grasses and forbs, increased fire frequency due to the increase in fine fuels
-
Fire-driven alien invasion in a fire-adapted ecosystem.
Keeley, Jon E; Brennan, Teresa J
2012-08-01
Disturbance plays a key role in many alien plant invasions. However, often the main driver of invasion is not disturbance per se but alterations in the disturbance regime. In some fire-adapted shrublands, the community is highly resilient to infrequent, high-intensity fires, but changes in the fire regime that result in shorter fire intervals may make these communities more susceptible to alien plant invasions. This study examines several wildfire events that resulted in short fire intervals in California chaparral shrublands. In one study, we compared postfire recovery patterns in sites with different prefire stand ages (3 and 24 years), and in another study we compared sites that had burned once in four years with sites that had burned twice in this period. The population size of the dominant native shrub Adenostoma fasciculatum was drastically reduced following fire in the 3-year sites relative to the 24-year sites. The 3-year sites had much greater alien plant cover and significantly lower plant diversity than the 24-year sites. In a separate study, repeat fires four years apart on the same sites showed that annual species increased significantly after the second fire, and alien annuals far outnumbered native annuals. Aliens included both annual grasses and annual forbs and were negatively correlated with woody plant cover. Native woody species regenerated well after the first fire but declined after the second fire, and one obligate seeding shrub was extirpated from two sites by the repeat fires. It is concluded that some fire-adapted shrublands are vulnerable to changes in fire regime, and this can lead to a loss of native diversity and put the community on a trajectory towards type conversion from a woody to an herbaceous system. Such changes result in alterations in the proportion of natives to non-natives, changes in functional types from deeply rooted shrubs to shallow rooted grasses and forbs, increased fire frequency due to the increase in fine fuels
-
Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Bastos
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion.
The main goals of the present work are (i to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively.
The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998–2009, at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to -
An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Lu; Huang, Xianjia; Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang
2016-01-01
Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.
-
An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, Lu [Sate Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230027 (China); Huang, Xianjia, E-mail: huangxianjia@gziit.ac.cn [Joint Laboratory of Fire Safety in Nuclear Power Plants, Institute of Industry Technology Guangzhou & Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 511458 (China); Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang [China Nuclear Power Design Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518045 (China)
2016-05-15
Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.
-
The differential susceptibility to media effects model
Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.
2013-01-01
In this theoretical article, we introduce the Differential Susceptibility to Media Effects Model (DSMM), a new, integrative model to improve our understanding of media effects. The DSMM organizes, integrates, and extends the insights developed in earlier microlevel media-effects theories. It
-
Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.
2014-12-01
The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the
-
Rootstock-regulated gene expression patterns associated with fire blight resistance in apple
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jensen Philip J
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Desirable apple varieties are clonally propagated by grafting vegetative scions onto rootstocks. Rootstocks influence many phenotypic traits of the scion, including resistance to pathogens such as Erwinia amylovora, which causes fire blight, the most serious bacterial disease of apple. The purpose of the present study was to quantify rootstock-mediated differences in scion fire blight susceptibility and to identify transcripts in the scion whose expression levels correlated with this response. Results Rootstock influence on scion fire blight resistance was quantified by inoculating three-year old, orchard-grown apple trees, consisting of 'Gala' scions grafted to a range of rootstocks, with E. amylovora. Disease severity was measured by the extent of shoot necrosis over time. 'Gala' scions grafted to G.30 or MM.111 rootstocks showed the lowest rates of necrosis, while 'Gala' on M.27 and B.9 showed the highest rates of necrosis. 'Gala' scions on M.7, S.4 or M.9F56 had intermediate necrosis rates. Using an apple DNA microarray representing 55,230 unique transcripts, gene expression patterns were compared in healthy, un-inoculated, greenhouse-grown 'Gala' scions on the same series of rootstocks. We identified 690 transcripts whose steady-state expression levels correlated with the degree of fire blight susceptibility of the scion/rootstock combinations. Transcripts known to be differentially expressed during E. amylovora infection were disproportionately represented among these transcripts. A second-generation apple microarray representing 26,000 transcripts was developed and was used to test these correlations in an orchard-grown population of trees segregating for fire blight resistance. Of the 690 transcripts originally identified using the first-generation array, 39 had expression levels that correlated with fire blight resistance in the breeding population. Conclusions Rootstocks had significant effects on the fire blight
-
Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread
Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander
2015-01-01
How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...
-
Fire and Heat Spreading Model Based on Cellular Automata Theory
Samartsev, A. A.; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Fominykh, D. S.
2018-05-01
The distinctive feature of the proposed fire and heat spreading model in premises is the reduction of the computational complexity due to the use of the theory of cellular automata with probability rules of behavior. The possibilities and prospects of using this model in practice are noted. The proposed model has a simple mechanism of integration with agent-based evacuation models. The joint use of these models could improve floor plans and reduce the time of evacuation from premises during fires.
-
[Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].
Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long
2012-05-01
Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.
-
Fire propagation equation for the explicit identification of fire scenarios in a fire PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Moon, Joo Hyun
2011-01-01
When performing fire PSA in a nuclear power plant, an event mapping method, using an internal event PSA model, is widely used to reduce the resources used by fire PSA model development. Feasible initiating events and component failure events due to fire are identified to transform the fault tree (FT) for an internal event PSA into one for a fire PSA using the event mapping method. A surrogate event or damage term method is used to condition the FT of the internal PSA. The surrogate event or the damage term plays the role of flagging whether the system/component in a fire compartment is damaged or not, depending on the fire being initiated from a specified compartment. These methods usually require explicit states of all compartments to be modeled in a fire area. Fire event scenarios, when using explicit identification, such as surrogate or damage terms, have two problems: there is no consideration of multiple fire propagation beyond a single propagation to an adjacent compartment, and there is no consideration of simultaneous fire propagations in which an initiating fire event is propagated to multiple paths simultaneously. The present paper suggests a fire propagation equation to identify all possible fire event scenarios for an explicitly treated fire event scenario in the fire PSA. Also, a method for separating fire events was developed to make all fire events a set of mutually exclusive events, which can facilitate arithmetic summation in fire risk quantification. A simple example is given to confirm the applicability of the present method for a 2x3 rectangular fire area. Also, a feasible asymptotic approach is discussed to reduce the computational burden for fire risk quantification
-
Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition
Castle, Drew Clayton
Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed
-
Factors Controlling Vegetation Fires in Protected and Non-Protected Areas of Myanmar
Biswas, Sumalika; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Lwin, Zin Mar; Lasko, Kristofer; Justice, Christopher O.
2015-01-01
Fire is an important disturbance agent in Myanmar impacting several ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the factors impacting vegetation fires in protected and non-protected areas of Myanmar. Satellite datasets in conjunction with biophysical and anthropogenic factors were used in a spatial framework to map the causative factors of fires. Specifically, we used the frequency ratio method to assess the contribution of each causative factor to overall fire susceptibility at a 1km scale. Results suggested the mean fire density in non-protected areas was two times higher than the protected areas. Fire-land cover partition analysis suggested dominant fire occurrences in the savannas (protected areas) and woody savannas (non-protected areas). The five major fire causative factors in protected areas in descending order include population density, land cover, tree cover percent, travel time from nearest city and temperature. In contrast, the causative factors in non-protected areas were population density, tree cover percent, travel time from nearest city, temperature and elevation. The fire susceptibility analysis showed distinct spatial patterns with central Myanmar as a hot spot of vegetation fires. Results from propensity score matching suggested that forests within protected areas have 11% less fires than non-protected areas. Overall, our results identify important causative factors of fire useful to address broad scale fire risk concerns at a landscape scale in Myanmar. PMID:25909632
-
Factors controlling vegetation fires in protected and non-protected areas of myanmar.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sumalika Biswas
Full Text Available Fire is an important disturbance agent in Myanmar impacting several ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the factors impacting vegetation fires in protected and non-protected areas of Myanmar. Satellite datasets in conjunction with biophysical and anthropogenic factors were used in a spatial framework to map the causative factors of fires. Specifically, we used the frequency ratio method to assess the contribution of each causative factor to overall fire susceptibility at a 1km scale. Results suggested the mean fire density in non-protected areas was two times higher than the protected areas. Fire-land cover partition analysis suggested dominant fire occurrences in the savannas (protected areas and woody savannas (non-protected areas. The five major fire causative factors in protected areas in descending order include population density, land cover, tree cover percent, travel time from nearest city and temperature. In contrast, the causative factors in non-protected areas were population density, tree cover percent, travel time from nearest city, temperature and elevation. The fire susceptibility analysis showed distinct spatial patterns with central Myanmar as a hot spot of vegetation fires. Results from propensity score matching suggested that forests within protected areas have 11% less fires than non-protected areas. Overall, our results identify important causative factors of fire useful to address broad scale fire risk concerns at a landscape scale in Myanmar.
-
Factors controlling vegetation fires in protected and non-protected areas of myanmar.
Biswas, Sumalika; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Lwin, Zin Mar; Lasko, Kristofer; Justice, Christopher O
2015-01-01
Fire is an important disturbance agent in Myanmar impacting several ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the factors impacting vegetation fires in protected and non-protected areas of Myanmar. Satellite datasets in conjunction with biophysical and anthropogenic factors were used in a spatial framework to map the causative factors of fires. Specifically, we used the frequency ratio method to assess the contribution of each causative factor to overall fire susceptibility at a 1km scale. Results suggested the mean fire density in non-protected areas was two times higher than the protected areas. Fire-land cover partition analysis suggested dominant fire occurrences in the savannas (protected areas) and woody savannas (non-protected areas). The five major fire causative factors in protected areas in descending order include population density, land cover, tree cover percent, travel time from nearest city and temperature. In contrast, the causative factors in non-protected areas were population density, tree cover percent, travel time from nearest city, temperature and elevation. The fire susceptibility analysis showed distinct spatial patterns with central Myanmar as a hot spot of vegetation fires. Results from propensity score matching suggested that forests within protected areas have 11% less fires than non-protected areas. Overall, our results identify important causative factors of fire useful to address broad scale fire risk concerns at a landscape scale in Myanmar.
-
Simulation of a Large Wildfire in a Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jean-Baptiste Filippi
2018-06-01
Full Text Available The Aullene fire devastated more than 3000 ha of Mediterranean maquis and pine forest in July 2009. The simulation of combustion processes, as well as atmospheric dynamics represents a challenge for such scenarios because of the various involved scales, from the scale of the individual flames to the larger regional scale. A coupled approach between the Meso-NH (Meso-scale Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric model running in LES (Large Eddy Simulation mode and the ForeFire fire spread model is proposed for predicting fine- to large-scale effects of this extreme wildfire, showing that such simulation is possible in a reasonable time using current supercomputers. The coupling involves the surface wind to drive the fire, while heat from combustion and water vapor fluxes are injected into the atmosphere at each atmospheric time step. To be representative of the phenomenon, a sub-meter resolution was used for the simulation of the fire front, while atmospheric simulations were performed with nested grids from 2400-m to 50-m resolution. Simulations were run with or without feedback from the fire to the atmospheric model, or without coupling from the atmosphere to the fire. In the two-way mode, the burnt area was reproduced with a good degree of realism at the local scale, where an acceleration in the valley wind and over sloping terrain pushed the fire line to locations in accordance with fire passing point observations. At the regional scale, the simulated fire plume compares well with the satellite image. The study explores the strong fire-atmosphere interactions leading to intense convective updrafts extending above the boundary layer, significant downdrafts behind the fire line in the upper plume, and horizontal wind speeds feeding strong inflow into the base of the convective updrafts. The fire-induced dynamics is induced by strong near-surface sensible heat fluxes reaching maximum values of 240 kW m − 2 . The dynamical production of turbulent kinetic
-
Systems and models of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krzysztof Kielak
2013-12-01
Full Text Available The paper presents fire blight prediction models and systems, developed in Europe (system Billing - versions: BOS, BRS, BIS95 and originated from this system: Firescreen, FEUERBRA and ANLAFBRA and in United States (Californian system, model Maryblyt and system Cougarblight. Use of above models and systems in various climatic-geographic conditions and comparison of obtained prognostic data to real fire blight occurrence is reviewed. The newest trends in research on improvement of prognostic analyses parameters with their adjustment to particular conditions and consideration of infection source occurrence are also presented.
-
Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney
2011-01-01
Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koski, Jorman A.; Suo-Antitla, Ahti; Kramer M, Alex; Greiner, Miles
2000-01-01
Recent observations show that the thermal boundary conditions within large-scale fires are significantly affected by the presence of thermally massive objects. These objects cool the soot and gas near their surfaces, and these effects reduce the incoming radiant heat-flux to values lower than the levels expected from simple σT fire 4 models. They also affect the flow and temperature fields in the fire far from their surfaces. The Cask Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories to provide an enhanced fire boundary condition for the design of radioactive material packages. CAFE is a set of computer subroutines that use computational fluid mechanics methods to predict convective heat transfer and mixing. It also includes models for fuel and oxygen transport, chemical reaction, and participating-media radiation heat transfer. This code uses two-dimensional computational models so that it has reasonably short turnaround times on standard workstations and is well suited for design and risk studies. In this paper, CAFE is coupled with a commercial finite-element program to model a large cylindrical calorimeter fully engulfed in a pool fire. The time-dependent heat-flux to the calorimeter and the calorimeter surface temperature are determined for several locations around the calorimeter circumference. The variation of heat-flux with location is determined for calorimeters with different diameters and wall thickness, and the observed effects discussed
-
Machine learning modelling for predicting soil liquefaction susceptibility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Samui
2011-01-01
Full Text Available This study describes two machine learning techniques applied to predict liquefaction susceptibility of soil based on the standard penetration test (SPT data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The first machine learning technique which uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN based on multi-layer perceptions (MLP that are trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm. The second machine learning technique uses the Support Vector machine (SVM that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses classification technique. ANN and SVM have been developed to predict liquefaction susceptibility using corrected SPT [(N160] and cyclic stress ratio (CSR. Further, an attempt has been made to simplify the models, requiring only the two parameters [(N160 and peck ground acceleration (amax/g], for the prediction of liquefaction susceptibility. The developed ANN and SVM models have also been applied to different case histories available globally. The paper also highlights the capability of the SVM over the ANN models.
-
M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud
2015-01-01
Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...
-
Bayesian nonparametric modeling for comparison of single-neuron firing intensities.
Kottas, Athanasios; Behseta, Sam
2010-03-01
We propose a fully inferential model-based approach to the problem of comparing the firing patterns of a neuron recorded under two distinct experimental conditions. The methodology is based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process models for the firing times of each condition with flexible nonparametric mixture prior models for the corresponding intensity functions. We demonstrate posterior inferences from a global analysis, which may be used to compare the two conditions over the entire experimental time window, as well as from a pointwise analysis at selected time points to detect local deviations of firing patterns from one condition to another. We apply our method on two neurons recorded from the primary motor cortex area of a monkey's brain while performing a sequence of reaching tasks.
-
Developments in modelling of thermal radiation from pool and jet fires
Boot, H.
2016-01-01
In the past decades, the standard approach in the modelling of consequences of pool and jet fires would be to describe these fires as tilted cylindrical shaped radiating flame surfaces, having a specific SEP (Surface Emissive Power). Some fine tuning on pool fires has been done by Rew and Hulbert in
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klein-Hessling, W.; Roewekamp, M.; Riese, O.
2006-11-01
Fire simulations as well as their analytical validation procedures have gained more and more significance, particularly in the context of the fire safety analysis for operating nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, fire simulation models have been adapted as analytical tools for a risk oriented fire safety assessment. Calculated predictions can be used, on the one hand, for the improvements and upgrades of fire protection in nuclear power plants by the licensees and, on the other hand, as a tool for reproducible and clearly understandable estimations in assessing the available and/or foreseen fire protection measures by the authorities and their experts. For consideration of such aspects in the context of implementing new nuclear fire protection standards or of updating existing ones, an 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' also known as the 'International Collaborative Fire Model Project' (ICFMP) was started in 1999. It has made use of the experience and knowledge of a variety of worldwide expert institutions in this field to assess and improve, if necessary, the state-of-the-art with respect to modeling fires in nuclear power plants and other nuclear installations. This document contains the results of the ICFMP Benchmark Exercise No. 4, where two fuel pool fire experiments in an enclosure with two different natural vent sizes have been considered. Analyzing the results of different fire simulation codes and code types provides some indications with respect to the uncertainty of the results. This information is especially important in setting uncertainty parameters in probabilistic risk studies and to provide general insights concerning the applicability and limitations in the application of different types of fire simulation codes for this type of fire scenario and boundary conditions. During the benchmark procedure the participants performed different types of calculations. These included totally blind
-
Post Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis Using a Fault Tree Logic Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yim, Hyun Tae; Park, Jun Hyun
2005-01-01
Every nuclear power plant should have its own fire hazard analysis including the fire safe shutdown analysis. A safe shutdown (SSD) analysis is performed to demonstrate the capability of the plant to safely shut down for a fire in any given area. The basic assumption is that there will be fire damage to all cables and equipment located within a common fire area. When evaluating the SSD capabilities of the plant, based on a review of the systems, equipment and cables within each fire area, it should be determined which shutdown paths are either unaffected or least impacted by a postulated fire within the fire area. Instead of seeking a success path for safe shutdown given all cables and equipment damaged by a fire, there can be an alternative approach to determine the SSD capability: fault tree analysis. This paper introduces the methodology for fire SSD analysis using a fault tree logic model
-
Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk
Bucknor, Matthew D.
Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar
-
GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE WITH APPLICATIONS IN SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTIOUS-SUSCEPTIBLE MODELS.
Ilea, M; Turnea, M; Arotăriţei, D; Rotariu, Mariana; Popescu, Marilena
2015-01-01
Practical significance of understanding the dynamics and evolution of infectious diseases increases continuously in contemporary world. The mathematical study of the dynamics of infectious diseases has a long history. By incorporating statistical methods and computer-based simulations in dynamic epidemiological models, it could be possible for modeling methods and theoretical analyses to be more realistic and reliable, allowing a more detailed understanding of the rules governing epidemic spreading. To provide the basis for a disease transmission, the population of a region is often divided into various compartments, and the model governing their relation is called the compartmental model. To present all of the information available, a graphical user interface provides icons and visual indicators. The graphical interface shown in this paper is performed using the MATLAB software ver. 7.6.0. MATLAB software offers a wide range of techniques by which data can be displayed graphically. The process of data viewing involves a series of operations. To achieve it, I had to make three separate files, one for defining the mathematical model and two for the interface itself. Considering a fixed population, it is observed that the number of susceptible individuals diminishes along with an increase in the number of infectious individuals so that in about ten days the number of individuals infected and susceptible, respectively, has the same value. If the epidemic is not controlled, it will continue for an indefinite period of time. By changing the global parameters specific of the SIS model, a more rapid increase of infectious individuals is noted. Using the graphical user interface shown in this paper helps achieving a much easier interaction with the computer, simplifying the structure of complex instructions by using icons and menus, and, in particular, programs and files are much easier to organize. Some numerical simulations have been presented to illustrate theoretical
-
Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively. Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8% with no very high susceptibility (0%. Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management.
-
Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda
Nsengiyumva, Jean Baptiste; Luo, Geping; Nahayo, Lamek; Huang, Xiaotao; Cai, Peng
2018-01-01
Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively). Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8%) with no very high susceptibility (0%). Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management. PMID:29385096
-
A combustion model of vegetation burning in "Tiger" fire propagation tool
Giannino, F.; Ascoli, D.; Sirignano, M.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Rego, F.
2017-11-01
In this paper, we propose a semi-physical model for the burning of vegetation in a wildland fire. The main physical-chemical processes involved in fire spreading are modelled through a set of ordinary differential equations, which describe the combustion process as linearly related to the consumption of fuel. The water evaporation process from leaves and wood is also considered. Mass and energy balance equations are written for fuel (leaves and wood) assuming that combustion process is homogeneous in space. The model is developed with the final aim of simulating large-scale wildland fires which spread on heterogeneous landscape while keeping the computation cost very low.
-
Lismawati, Eka; Respatiwulan; Widyaningsih, Purnami
2017-06-01
The SIS epidemic model describes the pattern of disease spread with characteristics that recovered individuals can be infected more than once. The number of susceptible and infected individuals every time follows the discrete time Markov process. It can be represented by the discrete time Markov chains (DTMC) SIS. The DTMC SIS epidemic model can be developed for two pathogens in two patches. The aims of this paper are to reconstruct and to apply the DTMC SIS epidemic model with two pathogens in two patches. The model was presented as transition probabilities. The application of the model obtain that the number of susceptible individuals decreases while the number of infected individuals increases for each pathogen in each patch.
-
Experimental and numerical modeling of shrub crown fire initiation
Watcharapong Tachajapong; Jesse Lozano; Shakar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; David Weise
2009-01-01
The transition of fire from dry surface fuels to wet shrub crown fuels was studied using laboratory experiments and a simple physical model to gain a better understanding of the transition process. In the experiments, we investigated the effects of varying vertical distances between surface and crown fuels (crown base height), and of the wind speed on crown fire...
-
[Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].
Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng
2014-04-01
Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.
-
Mesh influence on the fire computer modeling in nuclear power plants
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Lázaro
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Fire computer models allow to study real fire scenarios consequences. Its use in nuclear power plants has increased with the new regulations to apply risk informed performance-based methods for the analysis and design of fire safety solutions. The selection of the cell side factor is very important in these kinds of models. The mesh must establish a compromise between the geometry adjustment, the resolution of the equations and the computation times. This paper aims to study the impact of several cell sizes, using the fire computer model FDS, to evaluate the relative affectation in the final simulation results. In order to validate that, we have employed several scenarios of interest for nuclear power plants. Conclusions offer relevant data for users and show some cell sizes that can be selected to guarantee the quality of the simulations and reduce the results uncertainty.
-
Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling
Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Robert E. Keane; Brigitte Dorner; Joseph Fall
2007-01-01
We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of...
-
The Rothermel surface fire spread model and associated developments: A comprehensive explanation
Patricia L. Andrews
2018-01-01
The Rothermel surface fire spread model, with some adjustments by Frank A. Albini in 1976, has been used in fire and fuels management systems since 1972. It is generally used with other models including fireline intensity and flame length. Fuel models are often used to define fuel input parameters. Dynamic fuel models use equations for live fuel curing. Models have...
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Duncan J MacGregor
Full Text Available Vasopressin neurons, responding to input generated by osmotic pressure, use an intrinsic mechanism to shift from slow irregular firing to a distinct phasic pattern, consisting of long bursts and silences lasting tens of seconds. With increased input, bursts lengthen, eventually shifting to continuous firing. The phasic activity remains asynchronous across the cells and is not reflected in the population output signal. Here we have used a computational vasopressin neuron model to investigate the functional significance of the phasic firing pattern. We generated a concise model of the synaptic input driven spike firing mechanism that gives a close quantitative match to vasopressin neuron spike activity recorded in vivo, tested against endogenous activity and experimental interventions. The integrate-and-fire based model provides a simple physiological explanation of the phasic firing mechanism involving an activity-dependent slow depolarising afterpotential (DAP generated by a calcium-inactivated potassium leak current. This is modulated by the slower, opposing, action of activity-dependent dendritic dynorphin release, which inactivates the DAP, the opposing effects generating successive periods of bursting and silence. Model cells are not spontaneously active, but fire when perturbed by random perturbations mimicking synaptic input. We constructed one population of such phasic neurons, and another population of similar cells but which lacked the ability to fire phasically. We then studied how these two populations differed in the way that they encoded changes in afferent inputs. By comparison with the non-phasic population, the phasic population responds linearly to increases in tonic synaptic input. Non-phasic cells respond to transient elevations in synaptic input in a way that strongly depends on background activity levels, phasic cells in a way that is independent of background levels, and show a similar strong linearization of the response
-
Modeling the Emission of CO from Wood Fires using Detailed Chemical Kinetics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dederichs, Anne
Carbon monoxide is treated as one of the most common and dangerous of gases evolving in fires. Modeling the formation of the toxic gas CO from in fire enclosures using detailed chemical kinetics is the topic of this manuscript. A semi-empirical model is developed to study the formation of CO from......, the model separately treats the process of pyrolysis and combustion. For under ventilated conditions and at high temperatures during pyrolysis it is found that the process of pyrolysation strongly influences the formation of CO in fire. CO2 follows the same trend....
-
Burnthrough Modeling of Marine Grade Aluminum Alloy Structural Plates Exposed to Fire
Rippe, Christian M
2015-01-01
Current fire induced burnthrough models of aluminum typically rely solely on temperature thresholds and cannot accurately capture either the occurrence or the time to burnthrough. This research experimentally explores the fire induced burnthrough phenomenon of AA6061-T651 plates under multiple sized exposures and introduces a new burnthrough model based on the near melting creep rupture properties of the material. Fire experiments to induce burnthrough on aluminum plates were conducted us...
-
PyrE, an interactive fire module within the NASA-GISS Earth System Model
Mezuman, K.; Bauer, S. E.; Tsigaridis, K.
2017-12-01
Fires directly affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth's radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. Having an interactive fire module in an Earth System Model allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of biomass burning in different time periods. To do so we have developed PyrE, the NASA-GISS interactive fire emissions model. PyrE uses the flammability, ignition, and suppression parameterization proposed by Pechony and Shindell (2009), and is coupled to a burned area and surface recovery parameterization. The burned area calculation follows CLM's approach (Li et al., 2012), paired with an offline recovery scheme based on Ent's Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) carbon pool turnover time. PyrE is driven by environmental variables calculated by climate simulations, population density data, MODIS fire counts and LAI retrievals, as well as GFED4s emissions. Since the model development required extensive use of reference datasets, in addition to comparing it to GFED4s BA, we evaluate it by studying the effect of fires on atmospheric composition and climate. Our results show good agreement globally, with some regional differences. Finally, we quantify the present day fire radiative forcing. The development of PyrE allowed us for the first time to interactively simulate climate and fire activity with GISS-ModelE3
-
Storesund, R.; Chin, A.; Florsheim, J. L.; O'Hirok, L.; Williams, K.; Austin, K. E.
2014-12-01
Mountains areas are increasingly susceptible to wildfires because of warming climates. Although knowledge of the hydro-geomorphological impacts of wildfire has advanced in recent years, much is still unknown regarding how environmental fluxes move through burned watersheds. Because of the loss of vegetation and hydrophobic soils, flash floods often accompany elevated runoff events from burned watersheds, making direct process measurements challenging. Direct measurements are also only partly successful at capturing the spatial variations of post-fire effects. Coupled with short temporal windows for observing such responses, opportunities are often missed for collecting data needed for developing predictive models. Terrestrial LiDAR scanning (TLS) of burned areas allows detailed documentation of the post-fire topography to cm-level accuracy, providing pictures of geomorphic responses not previously possible. This paper reports a comparative study of hillslope-channel interactions, using repeat TLS, in two contrasting environments. Burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire and 2013 Springs Fire, in Colorado and California respectively, the study sites share many similarities including steep erosive slopes, small drainage areas, and step-pool channel morphologies. TLS provided a tool to test the central hypothesis that, dry ravel, distinct in the California Mediterranean environment, would prompt a greater sedimentological response from the Springs Fire compared to the Waldo Canyon Fire. At selected sites in each area, TLS documented baseline conditions immediately following the fire. Repeat scanning after major storms allowed detection of changes in the landscape. Results show a tendency for sedimentation in river channels in the study sites interacting with dry ravel on hillslopes, whereas erosion dominated the response from the Waldo Canyon Fire with an absence of dry ravel. These data provide clues to developing generalizations for post-fire effects at regional scales
-
Advanced char burnout models for the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
T. Severin; S. Wirtz; V. Scherer [Ruhr-University, Bochum (Germany). Institute of Energy Plant Technology (LEAT)
2005-07-01
The numerical simulation of coal combustion processes is widely used as an efficient means to predict burner or system behaviour. In this paper an approach to improve CFD simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers with advanced coal combustion models is presented. In simple coal combustion models, first order Arrhenius rate equations are used for devolatilization and char burnout. The accuracy of such simple models is sufficient for the basic aspects of heat release. The prediction of carbon-in-ash is one aspect of special interest in the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers. To determine the carbon-in-ash levels in the fly ash of coal fired furnaces, the char burnout model has to be more detailed. It was tested, in how far changing operating conditions affect the carbon-in-ash prediction of the simulation. To run several test cases in a short time, a simplified cellnet model was applied. To use a cellnet model for simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers, it was coupled with a Lagrangian particle model, used in CFD simulations, too. 18 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.
-
Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling
Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.
2016-04-01
Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography
-
Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger
Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth
2003-01-01
The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...
-
Kwon, Sungchul; Kim, Yup
2013-01-01
We investigate epidemic spreading in annealed directed scale-free networks with the in-degree (k) distribution P(in)(k)~k(-γ(in)) and the out-degree (ℓ) distribution, P(out)(ℓ)~ℓ(-γ(out)). The correlation of each node on the networks is controlled by the probability r(0≤r≤1) in two different algorithms, the so-called k and ℓ algorithms. For r=1, the k algorithm gives =, whereas the ℓ algorithm gives =. For r=0, = for both algorithms. As the prototype of epidemic spreading, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process on the networks are analyzed using the heterogeneous mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. The directedness of links and the correlation of the network are found to play important roles in the spreading, so that critical behaviors of both models are distinct from those on undirected scale-free networks.
-
Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salomé Temiño-Villota
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.
-
Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.
2016-07-01
Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)
-
Prioritization of reactor control components susceptible to fire damage as a consequence of aging
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lowry, W.; Vigil, R.; Nowlen, S.
1994-01-01
The Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Test Program is to identify and assess issues of plant aging that could lead to an increase in nuclear power plant risk because of fires. Historical component data and prior analyses are used to prioritize a list of components with respect to aging and fire vulnerability and the consequences of their failure on plant safety systems. The component list emphasizes safety system control components, but excludes cables, large equipment, and devices encompassed in the Equipment Qualification (EQ) program. The test program selected components identified in a utility survey and developed test and fire conditions necessary to maximize the effectiveness of the test program. Fire damage considerations were limited to purely thermal effects
-
BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-BURN Subsystem, part 1
Patricia L. Andrews
1986-01-01
Describes BURN Subsystem, Part 1, the operational fire behavior prediction subsystem of the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system. The manual covers operation of the computer program, assumptions of the mathematical models used in the calculations, and application of the predictions.
-
Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models
C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont
2015-01-01
Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...
-
Putting out fire with gasoline: pitfalls in the silvicultural treatment of canopy fuels
Christopher R. Keyes; J. Morgan Varner
2007-01-01
There is little question that forest stand structure is directly related to fire behavior, and that canopy fuel structure may be altered using silvicultural methods to successfully modify forest fire behavior and reduce susceptibility to crown fire initiation and spread. Silvicultural treatments can remediate hazardous stand structures that have developed as a result...
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Williams, W.R.; Anderson, J.C.
1995-01-01
The transportation of UF 6 is subject to regulations requiring the evaluation of packaging under a sequence of hypothetical accident conditions including exposure to a 30-min 800 degree C (1475 degree F) fire [10 CFR 71.73(c)(3)]. An issue of continuing interest is whether bare cylinders can withstand such a fire without rupturing. To address this issue, a lumped parameter heat transfer/stress analysis model (6FIRE) has been developed to simulate heating to the point of rupture of a cylinder containing UF 6 when it is exposed to a fire. The model is described, then estimates of time to rupture are presented for various cylinder types, fire temperatures, and fill conditions. An assessment of the quantity of UF 6 released from containment after rupture is also presented. Further documentation of the model is referenced
-
Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.
2017-12-01
Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the
-
Application of Different HSI Color Models to Detect Fire-Damaged Mortar
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Luo
2013-12-01
Full Text Available To obtain a better understanding of the effect of vehicle fires on rigid pavement, a nondestructive test method utilizing an ordinary digital camera to capture images of mortar at five elevated temperatures was undertaken. These images were then analyzed by “image color-intensity analyzer” software. In image analysis, the RGB color model was the basic system used to represent the color information of images. HSI is a derived-color model that is transformed from an RGB model by formulae. In order to understand more about surface color changes and temperatures after a vehicle fire, various transformation formulae used in different research areas were applied in this study. They were then evaluated to obtain the optimum HSI model for further studies of fire-damaged mortar through the use of image analysis.
-
Effects of fire on major forest ecosystem processes: an overview.
Chen, Zhong
2006-09-01
Fire and fire ecology are among the best-studied topics in contemporary ecosystem ecology. The large body of existing literature on fire and fire ecology indicates an urgent need to synthesize the information on the pattern of fire effects on ecosystem composition, structure, and functions for application in fire and ecosystem management. Understanding fire effects and underlying principles are critical to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic wildfires and for proper use of fire as an effective management tool toward management goals. This overview is a synthesis of current knowledge on major effects of fire on fire-prone ecosystems, particularly those in the boreal and temperate regions of the North America. Four closely related ecosystem processes in vegetation dynamics, nutrient cycling, soil and belowground process and water relations were discussed with emphases on fire as the driving force. Clearly, fire can shape ecosystem composition, structure and functions by selecting fire adapted species and removing other susceptible species, releasing nutrients from the biomass and improving nutrient cycling, affecting soil properties through changing soil microbial activities and water relations, and creating heterogeneous mosaics, which in turn, can further influence fire behavior and ecological processes. Fire as a destructive force can rapidly consume large amount of biomass and cause negative impacts such as post-fire soil erosion and water runoff, and air pollution; however, as a constructive force fire is also responsible for maintaining the health and perpetuity of certain fire-dependent ecosystems. Considering the unique ecological roles of fire in mediating and regulating ecosystems, fire should be incorporated as an integral component of ecosystems and management. However, the effects of fire on an ecosystem depend on the fire regime, vegetation type, climate, physical environments, and the scale of time and space of assessment. More ecosystem
-
2010-02-02
..., Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment AGENCY... 1019195), Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment... exists in both the general fire protection and the nuclear power plant (NPP) fire protection communities...
-
Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas
2013-04-01
Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hermann, Dominik [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Brugg (Switzerland)
2017-03-15
Precursor analysis is widely used in the nuclear industry to judge the significance of events relevant to safety. However, in case of events that may damage equipment through effects that are not ordinary functional dependencies, the analysis may not always fully appreciate the potential for further evolution of the event. For fires, which are one class of such events, this paper discusses modelling challenges that need to be overcome when performing a probabilistic precursor analysis. The events used to analyze are selected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Fire Incidents Records Exchange (FIRE) Database.
-
Caliver: An R package for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs.
Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; D'Andrea, Mirko
2018-01-01
The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package.
-
Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun
2015-04-01
Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.
-
Optimal control in a model of malaria with differential susceptibility
Hincapié, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan
2014-06-01
A malaria model with differential susceptibility is analyzed using the optimal control technique. In the model the human population is classified as susceptible, infected and recovered. Susceptibility is assumed dependent on genetic, physiological, or social characteristics that vary between individuals. The model is described by a system of differential equations that relate the human and vector populations, so that the infection is transmitted to humans by vectors, and the infection is transmitted to vectors by humans. The model considered is analyzed using the optimal control method when the control consists in using of insecticide-treated nets and educational campaigns; and the optimality criterion is to minimize the number of infected humans, while keeping the cost as low as is possible. One first goal is to determine the effects of differential susceptibility in the proposed control mechanism; and the second goal is to determine the algebraic form of the basic reproductive number of the model. All computations are performed using computer algebra, specifically Maple. It is claimed that the analytical results obtained are important for the design and implementation of control measures for malaria. It is suggested some future investigations such as the application of the method to other vector-borne diseases such as dengue or yellow fever; and also it is suggested the possible application of free software of computer algebra like Maxima.
-
A Partially-Stirred Batch Reactor Model for Under-Ventilated Fire Dynamics
McDermott, Randall; Weinschenk, Craig
2013-11-01
A simple discrete quadrature method is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term in large-eddy simulations (LES) and implemented in the publicly available fire model, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The method is cast as a partially-stirred batch reactor model for each computational cell. The model has three distinct components: (1) a subgrid mixing environment, (2) a mixing model, and (3) a set of chemical rate laws. The subgrid probability density function (PDF) is described by a linear combination of Dirac delta functions with quadrature weights set to satisfy simple integral constraints for the computational cell. It is shown that under certain limiting assumptions, the present method reduces to the eddy dissipation concept (EDC). The model is used to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a methane slot burner and in LES of an under-ventilated compartment fire.
-
[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].
Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting
2015-07-01
The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.
-
Laboratory fire behavior measurements of chaparral crown fire
C. Sanpakit; S. Omodan; D. Weise; M Princevac
2015-01-01
In 2013, there was an estimated 9,900 wildland fires that claimed more than 577,000 acres of land. That same year, about 542 prescribed fires were used to treat 48,554 acres by several agencies in California. Being able to understand fires using laboratory models can better prepare individuals to combat or use fires. Our research focused on chaparral crown fires....
-
Multiple-Parameter, Low-False-Alarm Fire-Detection Systems
Hunter, Gary W.; Greensburg, Paul; McKnight, Robert; Xu, Jennifer C.; Liu, C. C.; Dutta, Prabir; Makel, Darby; Blake, D.; Sue-Antillio, Jill
2007-01-01
Fire-detection systems incorporating multiple sensors that measure multiple parameters are being developed for use in storage depots, cargo bays of ships and aircraft, and other locations not amenable to frequent, direct visual inspection. These systems are intended to improve upon conventional smoke detectors, now used in such locations, that reliably detect fires but also frequently generate false alarms: for example, conventional smoke detectors based on the blockage of light by smoke particles are also affected by dust particles and water droplets and, thus, are often susceptible to false alarms. In contrast, by utilizing multiple parameters associated with fires, i.e. not only obscuration by smoke particles but also concentrations of multiple chemical species that are commonly generated in combustion, false alarms can be significantly decreased while still detecting fires as reliably as older smoke-detector systems do. The present development includes fabrication of sensors that have, variously, micrometer- or nanometer-sized features so that such multiple sensors can be integrated into arrays that have sizes, weights, and power demands smaller than those of older macroscopic sensors. The sensors include resistors, electrochemical cells, and Schottky diodes that exhibit different sensitivities to the various airborne chemicals of interest. In a system of this type, the sensor readings are digitized and processed by advanced signal-processing hardware and software to extract such chemical indications of fires as abnormally high concentrations of CO and CO2, possibly in combination with H2 and/or hydrocarbons. The system also includes a microelectromechanical systems (MEMS)-based particle detector and classifier device to increase the reliability of measurements of chemical species and particulates. In parallel research, software for modeling the evolution of a fire within an aircraft cargo bay has been developed. The model implemented in the software can
-
ONeill, S. M.; Chung, S. H.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M. E.; Solomon, R. C.; Rorig, M.
2014-12-01
Emissions from fires in the Western US are substantial and can impact air quality and regional climate. Many methods exist that estimate the particulate and gaseous emissions from fires, including those run operationally for use with chemical forecast models. The US Forest Service Smartfire2/BlueSky modeling framework uses satellite data and reported information about fire perimeters to estimate emissions of pollutants to the atmosphere. The emission estimates are used as inputs to dispersion models, such as HYSPLIT, and chemical transport models, such as CMAQ and WRF-Chem, to assess the chemical and physical impacts of fires on the atmosphere. Here we investigate the use of Smartfire2/BlueSky and WRF-Chem to simulate emissions from the 2013 fire summer fire season, with special focus on the Rim Fire in northern California. The 2013 Rim Fire ignited on August 17 and eventually burned more than 250,000 total acres before being contained on October 24. Large smoke plumes and pyro-convection events were observed. In this study, the Smartfire2/BlueSky operational emission estimates are compared to other estimation methods, such as the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) and other global databases to quantify variations in emission estimation methods for this wildfire event. The impact of the emissions on downwind chemical composition is investigated with the coupled meteorology-chemistry WRF-Chem model. The inclusion of aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions in the model framework enables the evaluation of the downwind impacts of the fire plume. The emissions and modeled chemistry can also be evaluated with data collected from the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) aircraft field campaign, which intersected the fire plume.
-
Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.; Schmidt, C. C.; Giglio, L.; Prins, E.
2009-12-01
The diurnal cycle of fire activity is crucial for accurate simulation of atmospheric effects of fire emissions, especially at finer spatial and temporal scales. Estimating diurnal variability in emissions is also a critical problem for construction of emissions estimates from multiple sensors with variable coverage patterns. An optimal diurnal emissions estimate will use as much information as possible from satellite fire observations, compensate known biases in those observations, and use detailed theoretical models of the diurnal cycle to fill in missing information. As part of ongoing improvements to the Fire Location and Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) fire monitoring system, we evaluated several different methods of integrating observations with different temporal sampling. We used geostationary fire detections from WF_ABBA, fire detection data from MODIS, empirical diurnal cycles from TRMM, and simple theoretical diurnal curves based on surface heating. Our experiments integrated these data in different combinations to estimate the diurnal cycles of emissions for each location and time. Hourly emissions estimates derived using these methods were tested using an aerosol transport model. We present results of this comparison, and discuss the implications of our results for the broader problem of multi-sensor data fusion in fire emissions modeling.
-
C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy
2014-01-01
Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...
-
Remote sensing estimation of vegetation moisture for the prediction of fire hazard
Maffei, C.; Menenti, M.
2013-01-01
Various factors contribute to forest fire hazard, and among them vegetation moisture is the one that dictates susceptibility to fire ignition and propagation. The scientific community has developed a number of spectral indexes based on remote sensing measurements in the optical domain for the
-
Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America
Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton
2009-01-01
Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sam C Banks
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological
-
Banks, Sam C.; Knight, Emma J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Lindenmayer, David B.
2011-01-01
Background Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. Methodology/Principal Findings We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. Conclusions/Significance Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous
-
Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.
2009-01-01
We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (???50 000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of fine
-
Rabin, Sam S.; Ward, Daniel S.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Magi, Brian I.; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.
2018-03-01
This study describes and evaluates the Fire Including Natural & Agricultural Lands model (FINAL) which, for the first time, explicitly simulates cropland and pasture management fires separately from non-agricultural fires. The non-agricultural fire module uses empirical relationships to simulate burned area in a quasi-mechanistic framework, similar to past fire modeling efforts, but with a novel optimization method that improves the fidelity of simulated fire patterns to new observational estimates of non-agricultural burning. The agricultural fire components are forced with estimates of cropland and pasture fire seasonality and frequency derived from observational land cover and satellite fire datasets. FINAL accurately simulates the amount, distribution, and seasonal timing of burned cropland and pasture over 2001-2009 (global totals: 0.434×106 and 2.02×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 0.454×106 and 2.04×106 km2 yr-1 observed), but carbon emissions for cropland and pasture fire are overestimated (global totals: 0.295 and 0.706 PgC yr-1 modeled, 0.194 and 0.538 PgC yr-1 observed). The non-agricultural fire module underestimates global burned area (1.91×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 2.44×106 km2 yr-1 observed) and carbon emissions (1.14 PgC yr-1 modeled, 1.84 PgC yr-1 observed). The spatial pattern of total burned area and carbon emissions is generally well reproduced across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Central Asia, and Australia, whereas the boreal zone sees underestimates. FINAL represents an important step in the development of global fire models, and offers a strategy for fire models to consider human-driven fire regimes on cultivated lands. At the regional scale, simulations would benefit from refinements in the parameterizations and improved optimization datasets. We include an in-depth discussion of the lessons learned from using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in an interactive optimization for a dynamic global vegetation model.
-
An Improved Information Value Model Based on Gray Clustering for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qianqian Ba
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Landslides, as geological hazards, cause significant casualties and economic losses. Therefore, it is necessary to identify areas prone to landslides for prevention work. This paper proposes an improved information value model based on gray clustering (IVM-GC for landslide susceptibility mapping. This method uses the information value derived from an information value model to achieve susceptibility classification and weight determination of landslide predisposing factors and, hence, obtain the landslide susceptibility of each study unit based on the clustering analysis. Using a landslide inventory of Chongqing, China, which contains 8435 landslides, three landslide susceptibility maps were generated based on the common information value model (IVM, an information value model improved by an analytic hierarchy process (IVM-AHP and our new improved model. Approximately 70% (5905 of the inventory landslides were used to generate the susceptibility maps, while the remaining 30% (2530 were used to validate the results. The training accuracies of the IVM, IVM-AHP and IVM-GC were 81.8%, 78.7% and 85.2%, respectively, and the prediction accuracies were 82.0%, 78.7% and 85.4%, respectively. The results demonstrate that all three methods perform well in evaluating landslide susceptibility. Among them, IVM-GC has the best performance.
-
Dobrinkova, Nina; Jordanov, Georgi; Mandel, Jan
2010-01-01
WRF-Fire consists of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) coupled with a fire spread model, based on the level-set method. We describe a preliminary application of WRF-Fire to a forest fire in Bulgaria, oportunities for research of forest fire models for Bulgaria, and plans for the development of an Environmental Decision Support Systems which includes computational modeling of fire behavior.
-
Baker, K. R.
2017-12-01
Highly instrumented field studies provide a unique opportunity to evaluate multiple aspects of photochemical grid model representation of fire emissions, dispersion, and chemical evolution. Fuel information and burn area for a specific fire coupled with near-fire and downwind chemical measurements provides information needed to constrain model predicted fire plume transport and chemical evolution of important pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) that have deleterious health effects. Most local to regional scale field campaigns to date have made relatively few transects through plumes from fires with well characterized fuel type and consumption. While more comprehensive field studies are being planned for 2018 and beyond (WE-CAN, FIREX, FIRE-CHEM, and FASMEE), existing measurement data from multiple field campaigns including 2013 SEAC4RS, satellite data, and routine surface networks are used to assess how a regulatory modeling system captures fire impacts on local to regional scale ozone and PM2.5. Key aspects of the regulatory modeling system include fire location and burn area from SMARTFIRE2, emissions from BlueSky framework, and predictions of ambient O3 and PM2.5 from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical transport model. A comparison of model estimated O3 from specific fires with routine surface measurements at rural locations in proximity to the 2013 Rim fire, 2011 Wallow fire, and 2011 Flint Hills fires suggest the modeling system over-estimates smoke impacts on hourly ozone. Sensitivity simulations where solar radiation and photolysis rates are more aggressively attenuated by smoke reduced O3 predictions but did not ameliorate the over prediction bias. PM2.5 organic carbon tends to be overpredicted at rural surface sites downwind from the 2011 Flint Hills prescribed fires while results were mixed at rural sites downwind of the 2013 Rim fire and 2011 Wallow fire suggesting differences in fuel characterization (e
-
Application of Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil
Carvalho Vieira, Bianca; Martins, Tiago D.
2017-04-01
Shallow landslides and floods are the processes responsible for most material and environmental damages in Brazil. In the last decades, some landslides events induce a high number of deaths (e.g. Over 1000 deaths in one event) and incalculable social and economic losses. Therefore, the prediction of those processes is considered an important tool for land use planning tools. Among different methods the physically based landslide susceptibility models having been widely used in many countries, but in Brazil it is still incipient when compared to other ones, like statistical tools and frequency analyses. Thus, the main objective of this research was to assess the application of some Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil, identifying their main results, the efficiency of susceptibility mapping, parameters used and limitations of the tropical humid environment. In order to achieve that, it was evaluated SHALSTAB, SINMAP and TRIGRS models in some studies in Brazil along with the Geotechnical values, scales, DEM grid resolution and the results based on the analysis of the agreement between predicted susceptibility and the landslide scar's map. Most of the studies in Brazil applied SHALSTAB, SINMAP and to a lesser extent the TRIGRS model. The majority researches are concentrated in the Serra do Mar mountain range, that is a system of escarpments and rugged mountains that extends more than 1,500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, and regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements. Most part of these studies used conventional topographic maps with scales ranging from 1:2000 to 1:50000 and DEM-grid resolution between 2 and 20m. Regarding the Geotechnical and hydrological values, a few studies use field collected data which could produce more efficient results, as indicated by international literature. Therefore, even though they have enormous potential in the susceptibility mapping, even for comparison
-
Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.
2013-02-01
Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lin, C.-H.; Ferng, Y.-M.; Pei, B.-S.
2009-01-01
Additional fire barriers of electrical cables are required for the nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan due to the separation requirements of Appendix R to 10 CFR Part 50. The risk-informed fire analysis (RIFA) may provide a viable method to resolve these fire barrier issues. However, it is necessary to perform the fire scenario analyses so that RIFA can quantitatively determine the risk related to the fire barrier wrap. The CFD fire models are then proposed in this paper to help the RIFA in resolving these issues. Three typical fire scenarios are selected to assess the present CFD models. Compared with the experimental data and other model's simulations, the present calculated results show reasonable agreements, rendering that present CFD fire models can provide the quantitative information for RIFA analyses to release the cable wrap requirements for NPPs
-
A fire suppression model for forested range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq herds of caribou
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Donald C. Thomas
1996-01-01
Full Text Available A fire suppression model was developed for forested winter range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq (formerly Kaminuriak herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus in north-central Canada. The model is a balance between total protection, as voiced by some aboriginal people, and a let-burn policy for natural fires advocated by some ecologists. Elements in the model were caribou ecology, lichen recovery after fire, burn history, community priorities for caribou hunting, and fire cycle lengths. The percent ratio of current productive caribou habitat to the goal for that habitat determines whether fire should be suppressed in a specific area. The goals for productive caribou habitat, defined as forests older than 50 years, were scaled by fire cycle length and community priority ranking. Thus, the model is an example of co-management: traditional knowledge combined with science in a joint forum, the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq Caribou Management Board.
-
A Review of Fire Interactions and Mass Fires
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mark A. Finney
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The character of a wildland fire can change dramatically in the presence of another nearby fire. Understanding and predicting the changes in behavior due to fire-fire interactions cannot only be life-saving to those on the ground, but also be used to better control a prescribed fire to meet objectives. In discontinuous fuel types, such interactions may elicit fire spread where none otherwise existed. Fire-fire interactions occur naturally when spot fires start ahead of the main fire and when separate fire events converge in one location. Interactions can be created intentionally during prescribed fires by using spatial ignition patterns. Mass fires are among the most extreme examples of interactive behavior. This paper presents a review of the detailed effects of fire-fire interaction in terms of merging or coalescence criteria, burning rates, flame dimensions, flame temperature, indraft velocity, pulsation, and convection column dynamics. Though relevant in many situations, these changes in fire behavior have yet to be included in any operational-fire models or decision support systems.
-
Evaluating fire danger in Brazilian biomes: present and future patterns
Silva, Patrícia; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Libonati, Renata
2017-04-01
Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on fire occurrence and activity, particularly in Brazil, a region known to be fire-prone [1]. The Brazilian savanna, commonly referred to as cerrado, is a fire-adapted biome covering more than 20% of the country's total area. It presents the highest numbers of fire events, making it particularly susceptible to changes in climate. It is thus essential to understand the present fire regimes in Brazilian biomes, in order to better evaluate future patterns. The CPTEC/INPE, the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research at the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research developed a fire danger index based on the occurrence of hundreds of thousands of fire events in the main Brazilian biomes [2]: the Meteorological Fire Danger Index (MFDI). This index indicates the predisposition of vegetation to be burned on a given day, for given climate conditions preceding that day. It relies on daily values of air temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation and vegetation cover. In this study we aim to access the capability of the MFDI to accurately replicate present fire conditions for different biomes, with a special focus on cerrado. To this end, we assess the link between the MFDI as calculated by three different reanalysis (ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 and MERRA-2) and the observed burned area. We further calculate the validated MFDI using a regional climate model, the RCA4 as forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX, to understand the ability of the model to characterize present fire danger. Finally, the need to calibrate the model to better characterize future fire danger was also evaluated. This work was developed within the framework of the Brazilian Fire-Land-Atmosphere System (BrFLAS) Project financed by the Portuguese and Brazilian science foundations, FCT and FAPESP (project references FAPESP/1389/2014 and 2014/20042-2). [1] KRAWCHUK, M.A.; MORITZ, M.A.; PARISIEN, M.A.; VAN DORN, J
-
Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Russ A. Parsons
2015-01-01
Understanding what determines area burned in large landscapes is critical for informing wildland fire management in fire-prone environments and for representing fire activity in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. For the past ten years, a group of landscape-fire modellers have been exploring the relative influence of key determinants of area burned in temperate and...
-
Fire exposed facades: Numerical modelling of the LEPIR2 testing facility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dréan Virginie
2016-01-01
Full Text Available LEPIR2 testing facility is aimed to evaluate the fire behaviour of construction solutions implemented on facade according with the experimental evaluation required by the French Technical Specification 249 (IT249 of the safety regulation. It aims to limit the risks of fire spreading by facades to upper levels. This facility involves a wood crib fire in the lower compartment of a full scale two levels high structure. Flames are coming outside from the compartment through windows openings and develop in front of the facade. Computational fluids dynamics simulations are carried out with the FDS code (Fire Dynamics Simulator for two full-scale experiments performed by Efectis France laboratory. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of numerical model to reproduce quantitative results in terms of gas temperatures and heat flux on the tested facade for further evaluation of fire performances of an insulation solution. When experimental results are compared with numerical calculations, good agreement is found out for every quantities and each test. The proposed models for wood cribs and geometry give correct thermal loads and flames shape near the tested facade.
-
Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind
2012-01-01
Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...
-
Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.
2014-12-01
Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere
-
The Design of a Fire Source in Scale-Model Experiments with Smoke Ventilation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm; Brohus, Henrik; la Cour-Harbo, H.
2004-01-01
The paper describes the design of a fire and a smoke source for scale-model experiments with smoke ventilation. It is only possible to work with scale-model experiments where the Reynolds number is reduced compared to full scale, and it is demonstrated that special attention to the fire source...... (heat and smoke source) may improve the possibility of obtaining Reynolds number independent solutions with a fully developed flow. The paper shows scale-model experiments for the Ofenegg tunnel case. Design of a fire source for experiments with smoke ventilation in a large room and smoke movement...
-
Application of fire models for risk analysis in french nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brauns, P.
1989-04-01
Numerical simulations of compartment fires have been carried out in the French 900 MW and 1 300 MW nuclear power plants, to obtain quantitative data about this particular kind of risk: characteristic spreading times from one redundant electrical train to the other one, behaviour of important electrical components... The main stages of both studies were the following: selection of rooms, the location or function of which are essential for the plant safety in case of fire, on-site inspections to collect information about these rooms (amount of fuel, openings...), definition of fire scenarios, improvement of the fire model VESTA-PLUS, and, finally calculations using this computer code. The simulations have shown two major trends: i) the spreading times, without taking into account any external intervention, are always greater than half an hour, and ii) the specific design of the 1 300 MW power plants generally prevents one of the redundant train from being damaged due to a fire occurring in a room containing the other one. Examples of typical results obtained are given, showing the capability of application of the improved fire model to complex problems
-
Russell A. Parsons; William Mell; Peter McCauley
2010-01-01
Crown fire poses challenges to fire managers and can endanger fire fighters. Understanding of how fire interacts with tree crowns is essential to informed decisions about crown fire. Current operational crown fire predictions in the United States assume homogeneous crown fuels. While a new class of research fire models, which model fire behavior with computational...
-
An application of the perpendicular moisture index for the prediction of fire hazard
Maffei, C.; Menenti, M.
2014-01-01
Various factors contribute to forest fire hazard, and among them vegetation moisture is the one that dictates susceptibility to fire ignition and propagation. The scientific community has developed a number of spectral indices based on remote sensing measurements in the optical domain for the
-
Implications of emission inventory choice for modeling fire-related pollution in the U.S.
Koplitz, S. N.; Nolte, C. G.; Pouliot, G.
2017-12-01
Wildland fires are a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one of the most harmful ambient pollutants for human health globally. Within the U.S., wildland fires can account for more than 30% of total annual PM2.5 emissions. In order to represent the influence of fire emissions on atmospheric composition, regional and global chemical transport models (CTMs) rely on fire emission inventories developed from estimates of burned area (i.e. fire size and location). Burned area can be estimated using a range of top-down and bottom-up approaches, including satellite-derived remote sensing and on-the-ground incident reports. While burned area estimates agree with each other reasonably well in the western U.S. (within 20-30% for most years during 2002-2014), estimates for the southern U.S. vary by more than a factor of 3. Differences in burned area estimation methods lead to significant variability in the spatial and temporal allocation of emissions across fire emission inventory platforms. In this work, we implement fire emission estimates for 2011 from three different products - the USEPA National Emission Inventory (NEI), the Fire INventory of NCAR (FINN), and the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED4s) - into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to quantify and characterize differences in simulated fire-related PM2.5 and ozone concentrations across the contiguous U.S. due solely to the emission inventory used. Preliminary results indicate that the estimated contribution to national annual average PM2.5 from wildland fire in 2011 is highest using GFED4s emissions (1.0 µg m-3) followed by NEI (0.7 µg m-3) and FINN (0.3 µg m-3), with comparisons varying significantly by region and season. Understanding the sensitivity of modeling fire-related PM2.5 and ozone in the U.S. to fire emission inventory choice will inform future efforts to assess the implications of present and future fire activity for air quality and human health at national and global
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Ke-Zan; Xu Zhong-Pu; Zhu Guang-Hu; Ding Yong
2014-01-01
Recent research results indicate that individual awareness can play an important influence on epidemic spreading in networks. By local stability analysis, a significant conclusion is that the embedded awareness in an epidemic network can increase its epidemic threshold. In this paper, by using limit theory and dynamical system theory, we further give global stability analysis of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks with awareness. Results show that the obtained epidemic threshold is also a global stability condition for its endemic equilibrium, which implies the embedded awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold globally. Some numerical examples are presented to verify the theoretical results. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)
-
ANFIS modeling for the assessment of landslide susceptibility for the Cameron Highland (Malaysia)
Pradhan, Biswajeet; Sezer, Ebru; Gokceoglu, Candan; Buchroithner, Manfred F.
2010-05-01
Landslides are one of the recurrent natural hazard problems throughout most of Malaysia. In landslide literature, there are several approaches such as probabilistic, bivariate and multivariate statistical models, fuzzy and artificial neural network models etc. However, a neuro-fuzzy application on the landslide susceptibility assessment has not been encountered in the literature. For this reason, this study presents the results of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using remote sensing data and GIS for landslide susceptibility analysis in a part of the Cameron Highland areas in Malaysia. Landslide locations in the study area were identified by interpreting aerial photographs and satellite images, supported by extensive field surveys. Landsat TM satellite imagery was used to map vegetation index. Maps of topography, lineaments, NDVI and land cover were constructed from the spatial datasets. Seven landslide conditioning factors such as altitude, slope angle, curvature, distance from drainage, lithology, distance from faults and NDVI were extracted from the spatial database. These factors were analyzed using an ANFIS to produce the landslide susceptibility maps. During the model development works, total 5 landslide susceptibility models were constructed. For verification, the results of the analyses were then compared with the field-verified landslide locations. Additionally, the ROC curves for all landslide susceptibility models were drawn and the area under curve values were calculated. Landslide locations were used to validate results of the landslide susceptibility map and the verification results showed 97% accuracy for the model 5 employing all parameters produced in the present study as the landslide conditioning factors. The validation results showed sufficient agreement between the obtained susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide areas. Qualitatively, the model yields reasonable results which can be used for preliminary land
-
Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem
White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.
2008-01-01
Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hensinger, D.M.; Gritzo, L.A.; Koski, J.A.
1996-01-01
A user-defined boundary condition subroutine has been implemented within P3/THERMAL to represent the heat flux between a noncombusting object and an engulfing fire. The heat flux calculations includes a simple 2D fire model in which energy and radiative heat transport equations are solved to produce estimates of the heat fluxes at the fire-object interface. These estimates reflect radiative coupling between a cold object and the flow of hot combustion gases which has been observed in fire experiments. The model uses a database of experimental pool fire measurements for far field boundary conditions and volumetric heat release rates. Taking into account the coupling between a structure and the fire is an improvement over the σT 4 approximation frequently used as a boundary condition for engineered system response and is the preliminary step in the development of a fire model with a predictive capability. This paper describes the implementation of the fire model as a P3/THERMAL boundary condition and presents the results of a verification calculation carried out using the model
-
Ecological modeling of pollutants in accidental fire at the landfill waste
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefanov Sonja B.
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Paper presents tyre as flammable material and some examples of tyre fires in the world. Uncontrolled tyre fires produce a lot of smoke and air pollutants, including benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Great heat leads to the generation of pyrolytic oil which, when mixed with the fire extinguishing agent, contaminates the surrounding soil, surface water and underground water. Paper analyzes and presents in particular the emission factors of incomplete burning of waste car tyres. Metal dust emissions have been presented, volatile organic compund (VOC emissions, slightly volatile organic compound (SVOC emissions and emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Evaluation of the effect on the air quality has been graphically presented by modelling of uncotrolled tyre burning by using EPA "SCREEN 3 MODEL".
-
The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for viral marketing
Ismail, Siti Suhaila; Akil, Ku Azlina Ku; Chulan, Majdah; Sharif, Noorzila
2017-11-01
Viral marketing is a marketing strategy utilizes social media to spread information about a product or services provided. It is the most powerful way to share information in a short amount of time. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic of viral marketing within a time duration in the point of view of mathematics. This study used the epidemiological model known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). The model consists of a system of three differential equations with three state variables namely susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). It considers a case of SIR model with demography. Numerical experiments have been performed. The results show that viral marketing reaches its peak within two days. The online messages shared will become higher if the initial number of the infected individual has been increased.
-
WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland
Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej
2016-04-01
Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The
-
Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol
2014-01-01
USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures
-
Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2014-10-15
USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures.
-
Molecular polarizabilities and susceptibilities from Frost-model wavefunctions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amos, A.T.; Yoffe, J.A.
1975-01-01
Average polarizabilities and susceptibilities of a number of molecules are computed from Frost-model wavefunctions using a form of symmetry-adapted double perturbation theory. The anisotropy of α and chi is found for a few molecules using the elliptical Gaussian form of the Frost model. The results obtained are in reasonable agreement with experiment and other calculated values
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dali L. Gaganidze
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Fire blight is distinguished among the fruit tree diseases by harmfulness. Fire blight damages about 180 cultural and wild plants belonging to the Rosaceae family. Quince, apple and pear are the most susceptible to the disease. At present, the disease occurs in over 40 countries of Europe and Asia. Economic damage caused by fire blight is expressed not only in crop losses, but also, it poses threat of eradication to entire fruit tree gardens. Erwinia amylovora, causative bacteria of fire blight in fruit trees, is included in the A2 list of quarantine organisms. In 2016, the employees of the Plant Pest Diagnostic Department of the Laboratory of the Georgian Ministry of Agriculture have detected Erwinia amylovora in apple seedlings from Mtskheta district. National Food Agency, Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia informed FAO on pathogen detection. The aim of the study is detection of the bacterium Erwinia amylovora by molecular method (PCR in the samples of fruit trees, suspicious on fire blight collected in the regions of Eastern (Kvemo Kartli, Shida Kartli and Kakheti and Western Georgia (Imereti.The bacterium Erwinia amylovora was detected by real time and conventional PCR methods using specific primers and thus the fire blight disease confirmed in 23 samples of plant material from Shida Kartli (11 apples, 6 pear and 6 quince samples, in 5 samples from Kvemo Kartli (1 quince and 4 apple samples, in 2 samples of apples from Kakheti region and 1 sample of pear collected in Imereti (Zestafoni. Keywords: Fire blight, Erwinia amylovora, Conventional PCR, Real time PCR, DNA, Bacterium
-
Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duan Lixia; Lu Qishao
2006-01-01
Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing
-
Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duan Lixia [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China); Lu Qishao [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China)]. E-mail: qishaolu@hotmail.com
2006-12-15
Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing.
-
Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence
Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy
2016-01-01
Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.
-
Microfabricated Chemical Sensors for Aerospace Fire Detection Applications
Hunter, Gary W.; Neudeck, Philip G.; Fralick, Gustave; Thomas, Valarie; Makel, D.; Liu, C. C.; Ward, B.; Wu, Q. H.
2001-01-01
The detection of fires on-board commercial aircraft is extremely important for safety reasons. Although dependable fire detection equipment presently exists within the cabin, detection of fire within the cargo hold has been less reliable and susceptible to false alarms. A second, independent method of fire detection to complement the conventional smoke detection techniques, such as the measurement of chemical species indicative of a fire, will help reduce false alarms and improve aircraft safety. Although many chemical species are indicative of a fire, two species of particular interest are CO and CO2. This paper discusses microfabricated chemical sensor development tailored to meet the needs of fire safety applications. This development is based on progress in three types of technology: 1) Micromachining and microfabrication (Microsystem) technology to fabricate miniaturized sensors. 2) The use of nanocrystalline materials to develop sensors with improved stability combined with higher sensitivity. 3) The development of high temperature semiconductors, especially silicon carbide. The individual sensor being developed and their level of maturity will be presented.
-
Modeling wildland fire containment with uncertain flame length and fireline width
Romain Mees; David Strauss; Richard Chase
1993-01-01
We describe a mathematical model for the probability that a fireline succeeds in containing a fire. The probability increases as the fireline width increases, and also as the fire's flame length decreases. More interestingly, uncertainties in width and flame length affect the computed containment probabilities, and can thus indirectly affect the optimum allocation...
-
Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee
2016-01-01
The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael L Mann
Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.
-
Overview of the 2013 FireFlux II grass fire field experiment
C.B. Clements; B. Davis; D. Seto; J. Contezac; A. Kochanski; J.-B. Fillipi; N. Lareau; B. Barboni; B. Butler; S. Krueger; R. Ottmar; R. Vihnanek; W.E. Heilman; J. Flynn; M.A. Jenkins; J. Mandel; C. Teske; D. Jimenez; J. O' Brien; B. Lefer
2014-01-01
In order to better understand the dynamics of fire-atmosphere interactions and the role of micrometeorology on fire behaviour the FireFlux campaign was conducted in 2006 on a coastal tall-grass prairie in southeast Texas, USA. The FireFlux campaign dataset has become the international standard for evaluating coupled fire-atmosphere model systems. While FireFlux is one...
-
The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) Project
Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.; Westphal, D.; Richardson, K.; Christopher, S.; Schmidt, C.; Theisen, M.; Eck, T.; Reid, E. A.
2001-12-01
The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project was initiated by NASA, the US Navy and NOAA to monitor biomass burning and burning emissions on a global scale. The idea behind the mission is to integrate remote sensing data with global and regional transport models in real time for the purpose of providing the scientific community with smoke and fire products for planning and research purposes. FLAMBE is currently utilizing real time satellite data from GOES satellites, fire products based on the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) are generated for the Western Hemisphere every 30 minutes with only a 90 minute processing delay. We are currently collaborating with other investigators to gain global coverage. Once generated, the fire products are used to input smoke fluxes into the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, where advection forecasts are performed for up to 6 days. Subsequent radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate top of atmosphere and surface radiative forcing as well as surface layer visibility. Near real time validation is performed using field data collected by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometers. In this paper we fully describe the FLAMBE project and data availability. Preliminary result from the previous year will also be presented, with an emphasis on the development of algorithms to determine smoke emission fluxes from individual fire products. Comparisons to AERONET Sun photometer data will be made.
-
Ising model on tangled chain - 2: Magnetization and susceptibility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mejdani, R.
1993-05-01
In the preceding paper we have considered an Ising model defined on tangled chain to study the behaviour of the free energy and entropy, particularly in the zero-field and zero-temperature limit. In this paper, following the main line and basing on some results of the previous work, we shall study in the ''language'' of state configurations the behaviour of the magnetization and the susceptibility for different conditions of the model, to understand better the competition between the ferromagnetic bonds along the chain and the antiferromagnetic additional bonds across the chain. Particularly interesting is the behaviour of the susceptibility in the zero-field and zero-temperature limit. Exact solutions for the magnetization and susceptibility, generated by analytical calculations and iterative algorithms, are described. The additional bonds, introduced as a form of perfectly disorder, indicate a particular effect on the spin correlation. We found that the condition J=-J' between the ferromagnetic interaction J along the chain and the antiferromagnetic interaction J' across the chain is somewhat as a ''transition-region'' condition for this behaviour. (author). 16 refs, 14 figs
-
Evaluating performances of simplified physically based landslide susceptibility models.
Capparelli, Giovanna; Formetta, Giuseppe; Versace, Pasquale
2015-04-01
Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. This paper presents a package of GIS based models for landslide susceptibility analysis. It was integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model using the Object Modeling System (OMS) modeling framework. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices (GOF) by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system offers the possibility to investigate and fairly compare the quality and the robustness of models and models parameters, according a procedure that includes: i) model parameters estimation by optimizing each of the GOF index separately, ii) models evaluation in the ROC plane by using each of the optimal parameter set, and iii) GOF robustness evaluation by assessing their sensitivity to the input parameter variation. This procedure was repeated for all three models. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, Average Index (AI) optimization coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. This research was funded by PON Project No. 01_01503 "Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk
-
Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.
Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C
2015-05-01
Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.
-
Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel
Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.
2015-01-01
Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905
-
Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete
2017-04-01
Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities
-
Pipeline oil fire detection with MODIS active fire products
Ogungbuyi, M. G.; Martinez, P.; Eckardt, F. D.
2017-12-01
We investigate 85 129 MODIS satellite active fire events from 2007 to 2015 in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. The region is the oil base for Nigerian economy and the hub of oil exploration where oil facilities (i.e. flowlines, flow stations, trunklines, oil wells and oil fields) are domiciled, and from where crude oil and refined products are transported to different Nigerian locations through a network of pipeline systems. Pipeline and other oil facilities are consistently susceptible to oil leaks due to operational or maintenance error, and by acts of deliberate sabotage of the pipeline equipment which often result in explosions and fire outbreaks. We used ground oil spill reports obtained from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) database (see www.oilspillmonitor.ng) to validate MODIS satellite data. NOSDRA database shows an estimate of 10 000 spill events from 2007 - 2015. The spill events were filtered to include largest spills by volume and events occurring only in the Niger Delta (i.e. 386 spills). By projecting both MODIS fire and spill as `input vector' layers with `Points' geometry, and the Nigerian pipeline networks as `from vector' layers with `LineString' geometry in a geographical information system, we extracted the nearest MODIS events (i.e. 2192) closed to the pipelines by 1000m distance in spatial vector analysis. The extraction process that defined the nearest distance to the pipelines is based on the global practices of the Right of Way (ROW) in pipeline management that earmarked 30m strip of land to the pipeline. The KML files of the extracted fires in a Google map validated their source origin to be from oil facilities. Land cover mapping confirmed fire anomalies. The aim of the study is to propose a near-real-time monitoring of spill events along pipeline routes using 250 m spatial resolution of MODIS active fire detection sensor when such spills are accompanied by fire events in the study location.
-
Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.
2016-12-01
Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Sano, Tadashi
2012-01-01
The basic performance of numerical analysis of air-temperature profiles in large-scale compartments by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings is examined. Special attentions are paid to the dependence of the setting boundary conditions and the choosing model parameters. The simulations carried out under the denkyoken-test conditions, in which the air-temperature profiles in compartments and the heat-release rate of a fire have been precisely measured, indicate that the CFAST has a capability to appropriately represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment which includes the source of a fire, by applying the proper boundary conditions, i.e., time-histories of air-temperature in the upper (high temperature) layer given by the CFAST agree well with those of observations. The sensitivity analysis in the simulations also reveals that the appropriately setting of the boundary-conditions, especially for the heat-release ratio from a fire and the heat-transfer rate from walls of compartments to ambient air is vital. Contrary to this, the impacts of choosing numerical parameters on the air-temperature analysis are quite small. (author)
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marx, K.D. [Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States); Ingersoll, D.; Bickes, R.W. Jr. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
1998-11-01
In this paper the authors describe computer models that simulate the electrical characteristics and hence, the firing characteristics and performance of a semiconductor bridge (SCB) detonator for the initiation of BNCP [tetraammine-cis-bis (5-nitro-2H-tetrazolato-N{sup 2}) cobalt(III) perchlorate]. The electrical data and resultant models provide new insights into the fundamental behavior of SCB detonators, particularly with respect to the initiation mechanism and the interaction of the explosive powder with the SCB. One model developed, the Thermal Feedback Model, considers the total energy budget for the system, including the time evolution of the energy delivered to the powder by the electrical circuit, as well as that released by the ignition and subsequent chemical reaction of the powder. The authors also present data obtained using a new low-voltage firing set which employed an advanced electrochemical capacitor having a nominal capacitance of 350,000 {micro}F at 9 V, the maximum voltage rating for this particular device. A model for this firing set and detonator was developed by making measurements of the intrinsic capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR < 10 m{Omega}) of a single device. This model was then used to predict the behavior of BNCP SCB detonators fired alone, as well as in a multishot, parallel-string configuration using a firing set composed of either a single 9 V electrochemical capacitor or two of the capacitors wired in series and charged to 18 V.
-
Concepts for Future Large Fire Modeling
A. P. Dimitrakopoulos; R. E. Martin
1987-01-01
A small number of fires escape initial attack suppression efforts and become large, but their effects are significant and disproportionate. In 1983, of 200,000 wildland fires in the United States, only 4,000 exceeded 100 acres. However, these escaped fires accounted for roughly 95 percent of wildfire-related costs and damages (Pyne, 1984). Thus, future research efforts...
-
Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds
2010-01-01
This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...
-
Calibration of the CAFE-3D fire code with controlled indoor fire data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lopez, C.; Koski, J.A.; Khalil, I.; Suo-Anttila, A.
2004-01-01
The Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code contains a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based fire model that has been successfully coupled to standard finite element computer codes. This coupling of CFD and finite element codes allows for a more realistic modeling of the thermal performance of objects engulfed in fire, which aids in the design and risk analysis of radioactive material packages. The CAFE fire model is based on a three-dimensional finite volume formulation of basic fire chemistry and fluid dynamics. This fire model includes a variable-density primitive-variable formulation of mass, momentum, energy and species equations. Multiple chemical species and soot formation are included in the combustion model. Thermal radiation is modeled as diffusive radiation transport inside the flame zone and as view-factor radiation outside the flame zone. Turbulence is modeled with an eddy diffusivity model. The soot model is coupled to the diffusive radiation formulation using the Rosseland approximation and the optical properties of soot. In order to verify and improve the accuracy of computers codes, they should be benchmarked against test data. This paper describes a set of experiments that were performed at the Fire Laboratory for Accreditation of Modeling by Experiment (FLAME) fire facility of Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. The paper also describes how the data collected from the experiments was used to calibrate and benchmark the CAFE-3D fire code. Detailed description of the tests performed and comparisons between the calculated results and the collected data from the experiments are provided
-
Modelling of fire spread in car parks
Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.
2005-01-01
Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.
-
Bernard R. Parresol; Joe H. Scott; Anne Andreu; Susan Prichard; Laurie Kurth
2012-01-01
Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or...
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Espargilliere, Julien; Meyrand, Raphael; Vinot, Thierry [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)
2015-12-15
For a fire safety analysis, in order to comply with nuclear safety goals, a nuclear fuel facility operator has to define the elements important for safety to be maintained, even in the case of a fire. One of the key points of this fire analysis is the assessment of possible fire scenarios in the facility. This paper presents the IRSN method applied to a case study to assess fire scenarios which have the most harmful effects on safety targets. The layout consists in a central room (fire cell) containing three glove boxes with radioactive material and three electrical cabinets. This room is linked to two connecting compartments (the fire cell and these two compartments define the containment cell) and then to two corridors. Each room is equipped with a mechanical ventilation system, and a pressure cascade is established from the corridors to the central room. A fire scenario was studied with fire ignition occurring in an electrical cabinet. This scenario has a set of safety goals (prevention of fire cell and containment device failure, propagation of the fire). This case study was conducted with the IRSN code SYLVIA based on two zones modelling. Safety goals were associated with key parameters and performance criteria to be fulfilled. Modelling assumptions were defined in order to maximize physical effects of the fire. Sensitivity studies were also conducted on key parameters such as oxygen limitation, equivalent-fuel definition. Eventually, a critical analysis of the code models was carried out.
-
Baker, K. R.; Woody, M. C.; Tonnesen, G. S.; Hutzell, W.; Pye, H. O. T.; Beaver, M. R.; Pouliot, G.; Pierce, T.
2016-09-01
Two specific fires from 2011 are tracked for local to regional scale contribution to ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using a freely available regulatory modeling system that includes the BlueSky wildland fire emissions tool, Spare Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model. The modeling system was applied to track the contribution from a wildfire (Wallow) and prescribed fire (Flint Hills) using both source sensitivity and source apportionment approaches. The model estimated fire contribution to primary and secondary pollutants are comparable using source sensitivity (brute-force zero out) and source apportionment (Integrated Source Apportionment Method) approaches. Model estimated O3 enhancement relative to CO is similar to values reported in literature indicating the modeling system captures the range of O3 inhibition possible near fires and O3 production both near the fire and downwind. O3 and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) are formed in the fire plume and transported downwind along with highly reactive VOC species such as formaldehyde and acetaldehyde that are both emitted by the fire and rapidly produced in the fire plume by VOC oxidation reactions. PAN and aldehydes contribute to continued downwind O3 production. The transport and thermal decomposition of PAN to nitrogen oxides (NOX) enables O3 production in areas limited by NOX availability and the photolysis of aldehydes to produce free radicals (HOX) causes increased O3 production in NOX rich areas. The modeling system tends to overestimate hourly surface O3 at routine rural monitors in close proximity to the fires when the model predicts elevated fire impacts on O3 and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) data indicates possible fire impact. A sensitivity simulation in which solar radiation and photolysis rates were more aggressively attenuated by aerosol in the plume
-
Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Formetta
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Rainfall-induced shallow landslides can lead to loss of life and significant damage to private and public properties, transportation systems, etc. Predicting locations that might be susceptible to shallow landslides is a complex task and involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, and statistics. Two main approaches are commonly used: statistical or physically based models. Reliable model applications involve automatic parameter calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, and model sensitivity analyses. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify, and compare different models and model performance indicators in order to identify and select the models whose behavior is the most reliable for particular case studies.The procedure was implemented in a package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3 and a component for model verification. It computes eight goodness-of-fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurement data. The integration of the package in NewAge-JGrass uses other components, such as geographic information system tools, to manage input–output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy along the Salerno–Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia. The area is extensively subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides mainly because of its complex geology and climatology. The analysis was carried out considering all the combinations of the eight optimized indices and the three models. Parameter calibration, verification, and model performance assessment were performed by a comparison with a detailed landslide
-
Sodium spray and jet fire model development within the CONTAIN-LMR code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scholtyssek, W.
1993-01-01
An assessment was made of the sodium spray fire model implemented in the CONTAIN code. The original droplet burn model, which was based on the NACOM code, was improved in several aspects, especially concerning evaluation of the droplet burning rate, reaction chemistry and heat balance, spray geometry and droplet motion, and consistency with CONTAIN standards of gas property evaluation. An additional droplet burning model based on a proposal by Krolikowski was made available to include the effect of the chemical equilibrium conditions at the flame temperature. The models were validated against single-droplet burn experiments as well as spray and jet fire experiments. Reasonable agreement was found between the two burn models and experimental data. When the gas temperature in the burning compartment reaches high values, the Krolikowski model seems to be preferable. Critical parameters for spray fire evaluation were found to be the spray characterization, especially the droplet size, which largely determines the burning efficiency, and heat transfer conditions at the interface between the atmosphere and structures, which controls the thermal hydraulic behavior in the burn compartment
-
Rak, Iu; Bondarenko, V.
2013-01-01
Objective: The objective of the research is to develop a method based on the geometric modelling for the purpose of improving the effectiveness of fire protection project management in industrial production of fire protection technology systems. Methods: The theoretical inheritance mode of effective management in project-organizational structure of fire protection and specialized technical equipment production using geometric modelling. Results: Mathematical and geometric models of project ma...
-
Linen Fire as Biosorbent to Remove Heavy Metal Ions From Wastewater Modeling
Ildar G. Shaikhiev
2014-01-01
The possibility of using linen fires – lnopererabotk i waste as a sorption material for the extraction of heavy metal ions from wastewater modeling. It is shown that treatment with acid solutions linen fires a low concentration increases the surface area of linen fires and thus sorption capacity for heavy metal ions. The values of the maximum sorption capacity ions Fe (III), Co (II), Ni (II) and Zn (II) under static and dynamic conditions. IR spectroscopy...
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roewekamp, M.; Bertrand, R.; Bonneval, F.; Hamblen, D.; Siu, N.; Aulamo, H.; Martila, J.; Sandberg, J.; Virolainen, R.
2000-01-01
Numerous fire PSAs (probabilistic safety assessments) have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk. However, there are considerable uncertainties in the results of these assessments, due to significant gaps in current abilities to perform realistic assessments. These gaps involve multiple aspects of fire PSA, including the estimation of the probability of important fire scenarios, the modeling of fire growth and suppression, the prediction of fire-induced damage to equipment (including the effects of smoke), and the treatment of plant and operator responses to the fire. In response to recommendations of /VIR 93/, CSNI/PWG5 established a Task Group to review the present status and maturity of current methods used in fire risk assessments for operating nuclear power plants. The Task Group issued a questionnaire in May 1997 to all nuclear power generating OECD countries. The prime focus of the questionnaire (see Appendix A) was on a number of important issues in fire PSA: Fire PSA methodology and applications; Fire simulation codes; Ignition and damageability data; Modeling of fire spread on cables or other equipment; Modeling of smoke production and spread; Impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation, electronics, or other electrical equipment; Impact of actual cable fires on safety systems. The questionnaire requested specific information on these topics (e.g., computer codes used in fire PSAs, the physical parameters used to model ignition). Responses to the questionnaire were provided by Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the USA. This report summarizes the questionnaire responses and thereby: a) provides a perspective on the current fire PSA state of the art (SOAR) with respect to the issues listed above, and b) provides numerous references for more detailed information regarding these issues. The main responsibility for writing different chapters of this report was divided between some
-
Characterization of potential fire regimes: applying landscape ecology to fire management in Mexico
Jardel, E.; Alvarado, E.; Perez-Salicrup, D.; Morfín-Rios, J.
2013-05-01
Knowledge and understanding of fire regimes is fundamental to design sound fire management practices. The high ecosystem diversity of Mexico offers a great challenge to characterize the fire regime variation at the landscape level. A conceptual model was developed considering the main factors controlling fire regimes: climate and vegetation cover. We classified landscape units combining bioclimatic zones from the Holdridge life-zone system and actual vegetation cover. Since bioclimatic conditions control primary productivity and biomass accumulation (potential fuel), each landscape unit was considered as a fuel bed with a particular fire intensity and behavior potential. Climate is also a determinant factor of post-fire recovery rates of fuel beds, and climate seasonality (length of the dry and wet seasons) influences fire probability (available fuel and ignition efficiency). These two factors influence potential fire frequency. Potential fire severity can be inferred from fire frequency, fire intensity and behavior, and vegetation composition and structure. Based in the conceptual model, an exhaustive literature review and expert opinion, we developed rules to assign a potential fire regime (PFR) defined by frequency, intensity and severity (i.e. fire regime) to each bioclimatic-vegetation landscape unit. Three groups and eight types of potential fire regimes were identified. In Group A are fire-prone ecosystems with frequent low severity surface fires in grasslands (PFR type I) or forests with long dry season (II) and infrequent high-severity fires in chaparral (III), wet temperate forests (IV, fire restricted by humidity), and dry temperate forests (V, fire restricted by fuel recovery rate). Group B includes fire-reluctant ecosystems with very infrequent or occasional mixed severity surface fires limited by moisture in tropical rain forests (VI) or fuel availability in seasonally dry tropical forests (VII). Group C and PFR VIII include fire-free environments
-
Modelling of Fire in an Open Car Park
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marton, Timea; Dederichs, Anne Simone; Giuliani, Luisa
2015-01-01
Steel car parks exhibit high vulnerability to fire, as a consequence of the degradation of the steel mechanical properties at high temperatures and of the combustible type and amount. Real fire accidents in open car parks demonstrated a much faster and extended fire spread than predictions......, assuming that a fire spread rate of 12 min and consider at most 3-4 vehicles on fire at the same time. Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) is applied in this current paper to study fire spread between cars. The outcomes of the investigations show that the fire spread is strongly influenced by the geometrical...... layout and that the distance between cars plays a determinant role on the fire spread rate and ignition of adjacent cars. In particular it was found that the fire spread can be faster than 12 minutes in the case of the cars parked 40 and 60 cm from each other....
-
Thelen, Brian; French, Nancy H F; Koziol, Benjamin W; Billmire, Michael; Owen, Robert Chris; Johnson, Jeffrey; Ginsberg, Michele; Loboda, Tatiana; Wu, Shiliang
2013-11-05
A study of the impacts on respiratory health of the 2007 wildland fires in and around San Diego County, California is presented. This study helps to address the impact of fire emissions on human health by modeling the exposure potential of proximate populations to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from vegetation fires. Currently, there is no standard methodology to model and forecast the potential respiratory health effects of PM plumes from wildland fires, and in part this is due to a lack of methodology for rigorously relating the two. The contribution in this research specifically targets that absence by modeling explicitly the emission, transmission, and distribution of PM following a wildland fire in both space and time. Coupled empirical and deterministic models describing particulate matter (PM) emissions and atmospheric dispersion were linked to spatially explicit syndromic surveillance health data records collected through the San Diego Aberration Detection and Incident Characterization (SDADIC) system using a Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM) statistical approach. Two levels of geographic aggregation were modeled, a county-wide regional level and division of the county into six sub regions. Selected health syndromes within SDADIC from 16 emergency departments within San Diego County relevant for respiratory health were identified for inclusion in the model. The model captured the variability in emergency department visits due to several factors by including nine ancillary variables in addition to wildfire PM concentration. The model coefficients and nonlinear function plots indicate that at peak fire PM concentrations the odds of a person seeking emergency care is increased by approximately 50% compared to non-fire conditions (40% for the regional case, 70% for a geographically specific case). The sub-regional analyses show that demographic variables also influence respiratory health outcomes from smoke. The model developed in this study allows a
-
Modelling of electrical cabinet fires based on the CARMELA experimental program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melis, S.; Rigollet, L.; Such, J.M.; Casselman, C.
2004-01-01
As fire of electrical cabinets causes some hazard to nuclear safety, IRSN has conducted the CARMELA program to investigate this topic. The program was carried out in three stages. The two first stages consisted in analytical experiments where the combustible was simulated by thin plastic pieces and where the different parameters that influence the fire could be easily varied. The third stage involved real relay cabinets. This article first describes the experimental facility and the test matrix. The phenomenology of electrical cabinet fires is then exposed and the most influencing parameters are identified from the analytical experiments: the ventilation comes at first rank but the materials involved are also shown to influence the propagation of the fire. The model developed to represent the fire, and particularly the rate of heat released, is then presented and the comparison of its results with the measurements performed in the experiments shows that its validity is acceptable. (orig.)
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William J Platt
Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with
-
Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.
2015-01-01
Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Bjoerkman, J.; Hostikka, S.; Mangs, J.; Huhtanen, R.; Palmen, H.; Salminen, A.; Turtola, A.
1998-01-01
According to experience and probabilistic risk assessments, fires present a significant hazard in a nuclear power plant. Fires may be initial events for accidents or affect safety systems planned to prevent accidents and to mitigate their consequences. The project consists of theoretical work, experiments and simulations aiming to increase the fire safety at nuclear power plants. The project has four target areas: (1) to produce validated models for numerical simulation programmes, (2) to produce new information on the behavior of equipment in case of fire, (3) to study applicability of new active fire protecting systems in nuclear power plants, and (4) to obtain quantitative knowledge of ignitions induced by important electric devices in nuclear power plants. These topics have been solved mainly experimentally, but modelling at different level is used to interpret experimental data, and to allow easy generalisation and engineering use of the obtained data. Numerical fire simulation has concentrated in comparison of CFD modelling of room fires, and fire spreading on cables on experimental data. So far the success has been good to fair. A simple analytical and numerical model has been developed for fire effluents spreading beyond the room of origin in mechanically strongly ventilated compartments. For behaviour of equipment in fire several full scale and scaled down calorimetric experiments were carried out on electronic cabinets, as well as on horizontal and vertical cable trays. These were carried out to supply material for CFD numerical simulation code validation. Several analytical models were developed and validated against obtained experimental results to allow quick calculations for PSA estimates as well as inter- and extrapolations to slightly different objects. Response times of different commercial fire detectors were determined for different types of smoke, especially emanating from smoldering and flaming cables to facilitate selection of proper detector
-
Improved modelling of sodium-spray fires and sodium-combustion aerosol chemical evolution - 15488
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mathe, E.; Kissane, M.; Petitprez, D.
2015-01-01
In the context of the Generation IV Initiative, the consequences of a severe-accident in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) must be studied. Being pyrophoric, sodium will burn upon contact with air in a containment creating toxic aerosols and we must take into account these fire aerosols when assessing the source term. We have developed a numerical simulation named NATRAC to calculate the mass of aerosols produced during a spray fire in a SFR severe accident. The results show that the mass of oxide aerosols can involve more than 60% of the ejected sodium. In a second part we have developed a numerical simulation named STARK based on the Cooper model that models the physico-chemical transformations of the aerosols. However, this model has never been validated and the literature does not permit to do so. In these conditions, we have designed and performed our own experiment ESSTIA to obtain the missing values of the parameters that govern Cooper model. The modified Cooper model we propose with the new parameters reproduces correctly the ESSTIA experimental data. The only parameter that has not yet been measured is the tortuosity of the sodium-fire aerosols surface layers. A dedicated experiment using real sodium-fire aerosols could eliminate any doubts about the uncertainty of the proposed Cooper model
-
Modeling of phosphorus fluxes produced by wild fires at watershed scales.
Matyjasik, M.; Hernandez, M.; Shaw, N.; Baker, M.; Fowles, M. T.; Cisney, T. A.; Jex, A. P.; Moisen, G.
2017-12-01
River runoff is one of the controlling processes in the terrestrial phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus is often a limiting factor in fresh water. One of the factors that has not been studied and modeled in detail is phosporus flux produced from forest wild fires. Phosphate released by weathering is quickly absorbed in soils. Forest wild fires expose barren soils to intensive erosion, thus releasing relatively large fluxes of phosphorus. Measurements from three control burn sites were used to correlate erosion with phosphorus fluxes. These results were used to model phosphorus fluxes from burned watersheds during a five year long period after fires occurred. Erosion in our model is simulated using a combination of two models: the WEPP (USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project) and the GeoWEPP (GIS-based Water Erosion Prediction Project). Erosion produced from forest disturbances is predicted for any watershed using hydrologic, soil, and meteorological data unique to the individual watersheds or individual slopes. The erosion results are modified for different textural soil classes and slope angles to model fluxes of phosphorus. The results of these models are calibrated using measured concentrations of phosphorus for three watersheds located in the Interior Western United States. The results will help the United States Forest Service manage phosporus fluxes in national forests.
-
The impact of fire on the Late Paleozoic Earth System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ian J. Glasspool
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Analyses of bulk petrographic data indicate that during the Late Paleozoic wildfires were more prevalent than at present. We propose that the development of fire systems through this interval was controlled predominantly by the elevated atmospheric oxygen concentration (p(O2 that mass balance models predict prevailed. At higher levels of p(O2, increased fire activity would have rendered vegetation with high moisture contents more susceptible to ignition and would have facilitated continued combustion. We argue that coal petrographic data indicate that p(O2 rather than global temperatures or climate, resulted in the increased levels of wildfire activity observed during the Late Paleozoic and can therefore be used to predict it. These findings are based upon analyses of charcoal volumes in multiple coals distributed across the globe and deposited during this time period, and that were then compared with similarly diverse modern peats and Cenozoic lignites and coals. Herein, we examine the environmental and ecological factors that would have impacted fire activity and we conclude that of these factors p(O2 played the largest role in promoting fires in Late Paleozoic peat-forming environments and, by inference, ecosystems generally, when compared with their prevalence in the modern world.
-
The impact of fire on the Late Paleozoic Earth system.
Glasspool, Ian J; Scott, Andrew C; Waltham, David; Pronina, Natalia; Shao, Longyi
2015-01-01
Analyses of bulk petrographic data indicate that during the Late Paleozoic wildfires were more prevalent than at present. We propose that the development of fire systems through this interval was controlled predominantly by the elevated atmospheric oxygen concentration (p(O2)) that mass balance models predict prevailed. At higher levels of p(O2), increased fire activity would have rendered vegetation with high-moisture contents more susceptible to ignition and would have facilitated continued combustion. We argue that coal petrographic data indicate that p(O2) rather than global temperatures or climate, resulted in the increased levels of wildfire activity observed during the Late Paleozoic and can, therefore, be used to predict it. These findings are based upon analyses of charcoal volumes in multiple coals distributed across the globe and deposited during this time period, and that were then compared with similarly diverse modern peats and Cenozoic lignites and coals. Herein, we examine the environmental and ecological factors that would have impacted fire activity and we conclude that of these factors p(O2) played the largest role in promoting fires in Late Paleozoic peat-forming environments and, by inference, ecosystems generally, when compared with their prevalence in the modern world.
-
A Five-Year CMAQ PM2.5 Model Performance for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires
Wilkins, J. L.; Pouliot, G.; Foley, K.; Rappold, A.; Pierce, T. E.
2016-12-01
Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. Two components of the biomass burning inventory, wildfires and prescribed fires are routinely estimated in the national emissions inventory. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the development of these emission inventory sectors. We have completed a 5 year set of CMAQ model simulations (2008-2012) in which we have simulated regional air quality with and without the wildfire and prescribed fire inventory. We will examine CMAQ model performance over regions with significant PM2.5 and Ozone contribution from prescribed fires and wildfires. We will also review plume rise to see how it affects model bias and compare CMAQ current fire emissions input to an hourly dataset from FLAMBE.
-
Mapping the Daily Progression of Large Wildland Fires Using MODIS Active Fire Data
Veraverbeke, Sander; Sedano, Fernando; Hook, Simon J.; Randerson, James T.; Jin, Yufang; Rogers, Brendan
2013-01-01
High temporal resolution information on burned area is a prerequisite for incorporating bottom-up estimates of wildland fire emissions in regional air transport models and for improving models of fire behavior. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire product (MO(Y)D14) as input to a kriging interpolation to derive continuous maps of the evolution of nine large wildland fires. For each fire, local input parameters for the kriging model were defined using variogram analysis. The accuracy of the kriging model was assessed using high resolution daily fire perimeter data available from the U.S. Forest Service. We also assessed the temporal reporting accuracy of the MODIS burned area products (MCD45A1 and MCD64A1). Averaged over the nine fires, the kriging method correctly mapped 73% of the pixels within the accuracy of a single day, compared to 33% for MCD45A1 and 53% for MCD64A1.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christos Chalkias
2014-04-01
Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is landslide susceptibility assessment using fuzzy expert-based modeling. Factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, precipitation and seismicity were considered. Expert-based fuzzy weighting (EFW approach was used to combine these factors for landslide susceptibility mapping (Peloponnese, Greece. This method produced a landslide susceptibility map of the investigated area. The landslides under investigation have more or less same characteristics: lateral based and downslope shallow movement of soils or rocks. The validation of the model reveals, that predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences. Hence, the obtained landslide susceptibility map could be acceptable, for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation at regional scale.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyun-Joo Oh
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present some potential applications of sophisticated data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN and boosted tree (BT, for landslide susceptibility modeling in the Yongin area, Korea. Initially, landslide inventory was detected from visual interpretation using digital aerial photographic maps with a high resolution of 50 cm taken before and after the occurrence of landslides. The debris flows were randomly divided into two groups: training and validation sets with a 50:50 proportion. Additionally, 18 environmental factors related to landslide occurrence were derived from the topography, soil, and forest maps. Subsequently, the data mining techniques were applied to identify the influence of environmental factors on landslide occurrence of the training set and assess landslide susceptibility. Finally, the landslide susceptibility indexes from ANN and BT were compared with a validation set using a receiver operating characteristics curve. The slope gradient, topographic wetness index, and timber age appear to be important factors in landslide occurrence from both models. The validation result of ANN and BT showed 82.25% and 90.79%, which had reasonably good performance. The study shows the benefit of selecting optimal data mining techniques in landslide susceptibility modeling. This approach could be used as a guideline for choosing environmental factors on landslide occurrence and add influencing factors into landslide monitoring systems. Furthermore, this method can rank landslide susceptibility in urban areas, thus providing helpful information when selecting a landslide monitoring site and planning land-use.
-
BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system--FUEL subsystem
Robert E. Burgan; Richard C. Rothermel
1984-01-01
This manual documents the fuel modeling procedures of BEHAVE--a state-of-the-art wildland fire behavior prediction system. Described are procedures for collecting fuel data, using the data with the program, and testing and adjusting the fuel model.
-
Modeling of Ceiling Fire Spread and Thermal Radiation.
1981-10-01
under a PMMA ceiling and flame lengths under an inert ceiling are found to be in reasonable agreement with full-scale behavior. Although fire spread...5 3 Flame Lengths under Full-Scale Ceilings 12 4 Correlation of Flame Length under Inert Ceilings 16 5 Correlation of Flame Length under No 234 Model...Ceilings 17 6 Correlation of Flame Length under No B8811 Model Ceilings 18 7 Correlation of Flame Length under No. 223 Model Ceilings 19 8
-
Ploubidis, G B; Edwards, P; Kendrick, D
2015-12-15
This paper reports the development and testing of a construct measuring parental fire safety behaviours for planning escape from a house fire. Latent variable modelling of data on parental-reported fire safety behaviours and plans for escaping from a house fire and multivariable logistic regression to quantify the association between groups defined by the latent variable modelling and parental-report of having a plan for escaping from a house fire. Data comes from 1112 participants in a cluster randomised controlled trial set in children's centres in 4 study centres in the UK. A two class model provided the best fit to the data, combining responses to five fire safety planning behaviours. The first group ('more behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 86% of participants who were most likely to have a torch, be aware of how their smoke alarm sounds, to have external door and window keys accessible, and exits clear. The second group ('fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 14% of participants who were less likely to report these five behaviours. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants allocated to the 'more behaviours for escaping from a house fire group were 2.5 times more likely to report having an escape plan (OR 2.48; 95% CI 1.59-3.86) than those in the "fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire" group. Multiple fire safety behaviour questions can be combined into a single binary summary measure of fire safety behaviours for escaping from a house fire. Our findings will be useful to future studies wishing to use a single measure of fire safety planning behaviour as measures of outcome or exposure. NCT 01452191. Date of registration 13/10/2011.
-
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Crown fire potential was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The...
-
Low signal-to-noise FDEM in-phase data: Practical potential for magnetic susceptibility modelling
Delefortrie, Samuël; Hanssens, Daan; De Smedt, Philippe
2018-05-01
In this paper, we consider the use of land-based frequency-domain electromagnetics (FDEM) for magnetic susceptibility modelling. FDEM data comprises both out-of-phase and in-phase components, which can be related to the electrical conductivity and magnetic susceptibility of the subsurface. Though applying the FDEM method to obtain information on the subsurface conductivity is well established in various domains (e.g. through the low induction number approximation of subsurface apparent conductivity), the potential for susceptibility mapping is often overlooked. Especially given a subsurface with a low magnetite and maghemite content (e.g. most sedimentary environments), it is generally assumed that susceptibility is negligible. Nonetheless, the heterogeneity of the near surface and the impact of anthropogenic disturbances on the soil can cause sufficient variation in susceptibility for it to be detectable in a repeatable way. Unfortunately, it can be challenging to study the potential for susceptibility mapping due to systematic errors, an often poor low signal-to-noise ratio, and the intricacy of correlating in-phase responses with subsurface susceptibility and conductivity. Alongside use of an accurate forward model - accounting for out-of-phase/in-phase coupling - any attempt at relating the in-phase response with subsurface susceptibility requires overcoming instrument-specific limitations that burden the real-world application of FDEM susceptibility mapping. Firstly, the often erratic and drift-sensitive nature of in-phase responses calls for relative data levelling. In addition, a correction for absolute levelling offsets may be equally necessary: ancillary (subsurface) susceptibility data can be used to assess the importance of absolute in-phase calibration though hereby accurate in-situ data is required. To allow assessing the (importance of) in-phase calibration alongside the potential of FDEM data for susceptibility modelling, we consider an experimental
-
Enhanced pairing susceptibility in a photodoped two-orbital Hubbard model
Werner, Philipp; Strand, Hugo U. R.; Hoshino, Shintaro; Murakami, Yuta; Eckstein, Martin
2018-04-01
Local spin fluctuations provide the glue for orbital-singlet spin-triplet pairing in the doped Mott insulating regime of multiorbital Hubbard models. At large Hubbard repulsion U , the pairing susceptibility is nevertheless tiny because the pairing interaction cannot overcome the suppression of charge fluctuations. Using nonequilibrium dynamical mean field simulations of the two-orbital Hubbard model, we show that out of equilibrium the pairing susceptibility in this large-U regime can be strongly enhanced by creating a photoinduced population of the relevant charge states. This enhancement is supported by the long lifetime of photodoped charge carriers and a built-in cooling mechanism in multiorbital Hubbard systems.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barbero, R; Abatzoglou, J T; Steel, E A; K Larkin, Narasimhan
2014-01-01
Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. (letter)
-
A deterministric and probabilistric model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karlsson, B.
1988-03-01
A deterministic and probabilistic model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plant compartments has been developed. It's objective is to predict whether certain components in the compartment will cease to function as a result of the fire and to give the probability of failure. Results are presented for several scenarios in two compartments. The model has been implimented in the computer code OSFIC, a tool for safety engineers to compare various component configurations in different compartments. (author)
-
Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.
2017-01-01
The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.
-
Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Landucci, Gabriele [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Chimica Industriale e Scienza dei Materiali, Universita di Pisa, via Diotisalvi n.2, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Molag, Menso [Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek TNO, Princetonlaan 6, 3584 CB Utrecht (Netherlands); Cozzani, Valerio, E-mail: valerio.cozzani@unibo.it [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, Alma Mater Studiorum - Universita di Bologna, Via Terracini 28 - 40131 Bologna (Italy)
2009-12-15
The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.
-
Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Cozzani, Valerio
2009-01-01
The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.
-
Simulating Changes in Fires and Ecology of the 21st Century Eurasian Boreal Forests of Siberia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ksenia Brazhnik
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Wildfires release the greatest amount of carbon into the atmosphere compared to other forest disturbances. To understand how current and potential future fire regimes may affect the role of the Eurasian boreal forest in the global carbon cycle, we employed a new, spatially-explicit fire module DISTURB-F (DISTURBance-Fire in tandem with a spatially-explicit, individually-based gap dynamics model SIBBORK (SIBerian BOReal forest simulator calibrated to Krasnoyarsk Region. DISTURB-F simulates the effect of forest fire on the boreal ecosystem, namely the mortality of all or only the susceptible trees (loss of biomass, i.e., carbon within the forested landscape. The fire module captures some important feedbacks between climate, fire and vegetation structure. We investigated the potential climate-driven changes in the fire regime and vegetation in middle and south taiga in central Siberia, a region with extensive boreal forest and rapidly changing climate. The output from this coupled simulation can be used to estimate carbon losses from the ecosystem as a result of fires of different sizes and intensities over the course of secondary succession (decades to centuries. Furthermore, it may be used to assess the post-fire carbon storage capacity of potential future forests, the structure and composition of which may differ significantly from current Eurasian boreal forests due to regeneration under a different climate.
-
Challenges of assessing fire and burn severity using field measures, remote sensing and modelling
Penelope Morgan; Robert E. Keane; Gregory K. Dillon; Theresa B. Jain; Andrew T. Hudak; Eva C. Karau; Pamela G. Sikkink; Zachery A. Holden; Eva K. Strand
2014-01-01
Comprehensive assessment of ecological change after fires have burned forests and rangelands is important if we are to understand, predict and measure fire effects. We highlight the challenges in effective assessment of fire and burn severity in the field and using both remote sensing and simulation models. We draw on diverse recent research for guidance on assessing...
-
Using Modeling and Rehearsal to Teach Fire Safety to Children with Autism
Garcia, David; Dukes, Charles; Brady, Michael P.; Scott, Jack; Wilson, Cynthia L.
2016-01-01
We evaluated the efficacy of an instructional procedure to teach young children with autism to evacuate settings and notify an adult during a fire alarm. A multiple baseline design across children showed that an intervention that included modeling, rehearsal, and praise was effective in teaching fire safety skills. Safety skills generalized to…
-
Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model
Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.
2013-12-01
Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in
-
A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon
2010-01-01
Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested
-
Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Patrícia Silva
Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.
-
Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model
Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi
2017-06-01
Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.
-
Quantitative comparison of fire danger index performance using fire activity
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Steenkamp, KC
2012-07-01
Full Text Available parameters such as flame length or rate of spread can be physically measured or modeled. Fire danger indices are not designed to describe the characteristics of a fire but rather the potential of a fire taking place in an area of interest [5]. Several...
-
Peterson, Seth Howard
Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger
-
Fire blight resistance in wild accessions of Malus sieversii
Fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) is a devastating bacterial disease in apple that results in severe economic losses. Epidemics are becoming more common as susceptible cultivars and rootstocks are being planted, and control is becoming more difficult as antibiotic-resistant strains develop. Resistan...
-
Advancing investigation and physical modeling of first-order fire effects on soils
William J. Massman; John M. Frank; Sacha J. Mooney
2010-01-01
Heating soil during intense wildland fires or slash-pile burns can alter the soil irreversibly, resulting in many significant long-term biological, chemical, physical, and hydrological effects. To better understand these long-term effects, it is necessary to improve modeling capability and prediction of the more immediate, or first-order, effects that fire can have on...
-
Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...
-
Macedo-Filho, A.; Alves, G. A.; Costa Filho, R. N.; Alves, T. F. A.
2018-04-01
We investigated the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a square lattice in the presence of a conjugated field based on recently proposed reactivating dynamics. Reactivating dynamics consists of reactivating the infection by adding one infected site, chosen randomly when the infection dies out, avoiding the dynamics being trapped in the absorbing state. We show that the reactivating dynamics can be interpreted as the usual dynamics performed in the presence of an effective conjugated field, named the reactivating field. The reactivating field scales as the inverse of the lattice number of vertices n, which vanishes at the thermodynamic limit and does not affect any scaling properties including ones related to the conjugated field.
-
Krawchuk, Meg A.; Haire, Sandra L.; Coop, Jonathan D.; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Whitman, Ellen; Chong, Geneva W.; Miller, Carol
2016-01-01
Fire refugia, sometimes referred to as fire islands, shadows, skips, residuals, or fire remnants, are an important element of the burn mosaic, but we lack a quantitative framework that links observations of fire refugia from different environmental contexts. Here, we develop and test a conceptual model for how predictability of fire refugia varies according to topographic complexity and fire weather conditions. Refugia were quantified as areas unburned or burned at comparatively low severity based on remotely sensed burn severity data. We assessed the relationship between refugia and a suite of terrain-related explanatory metrics by fitting a collection of boosted regression tree models. The models were developed
-
Microclimate and Modeled Fire Behavior Differ Between Adjacent Forest Types in Northern Portugal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anita Pinto
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Fire severity varies with forest composition and structure, reflecting micrometeorology and the fuel complex, but their respective influences are difficult to untangle from observation alone. We quantify the differences in fire weather between different forest types and the resulting differences in modeled fire behavior. Collection of in-stand weather data proceeded during two summer periods in three adjacent stands in northern Portugal, respectively Pinus pinaster (PP, Betula alba (BA, and Chamaecyparis lawsoniana (CL. Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed varied respectively as CL < PP < BA, PP < CL < BA, and CL < BA < PP. Differences between PP and the other types were greatest during the warmest and driest hours of the day in a sequence of 10 days with high fire danger. Estimates of daytime moisture content of fine dead fuels and fire behavior characteristics for this period, respectively, from Behave and BehavePlus, indicate a CL < BA < PP gradient in fire potential. High stand density in CL and BA ensured lower wind speed and higher fuel moisture content than in PP, limiting the likelihood of an extreme fire environment. However, regression tree analysis revealed that the fire behavior distinction between the three forest types was primarily a function of the surface fuel complex, and more so during extreme fire weather conditions.
-
Catchment-scale Validation of a Physically-based, Post-fire Runoff and Erosion Model
Quinn, D.; Brooks, E. S.; Robichaud, P. R.; Dobre, M.; Brown, R. E.; Wagenbrenner, J.
2017-12-01
The cascading consequences of fire-induced ecological changes have profound impacts on both natural and managed forest ecosystems. Forest managers tasked with implementing post-fire mitigation strategies need robust tools to evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions, particularly those affecting hydrological recovery. Various hillslope-scale interfaces of the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model have been successfully validated for this purpose using fire-effected plot experiments, however these interfaces are explicitly designed to simulate single hillslopes. Spatially-distributed, catchment-scale WEPP interfaces have been developed over the past decade, however none have been validated for post-fire simulations, posing a barrier to adoption for forest managers. In this validation study, we compare WEPP simulations with pre- and post-fire hydrological records for three forested catchments (W. Willow, N. Thomas, and S. Thomas) that burned in the 2011 Wallow Fire in Northeastern Arizona, USA. Simulations were conducted using two approaches; the first using automatically created inputs from an online, spatial, post-fire WEPP interface, and the second using manually created inputs which incorporate the spatial variability of fire effects observed in the field. Both approaches were compared to five years of observed post-fire sediment and flow data to assess goodness of fit.
-
Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study
Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.
2016-12-01
Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher
-
Classification Model for Forest Fire Hotspot Occurrences Prediction Using ANFIS Algorithm
Wijayanto, A. K.; Sani, O.; Kartika, N. D.; Herdiyeni, Y.
2017-01-01
This study proposed the application of data mining technique namely Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) on forest fires hotspot data to develop classification models for hotspots occurrence in Central Kalimantan. Hotspot is a point that is indicated as the location of fires. In this study, hotspot distribution is categorized as true alarm and false alarm. ANFIS is a soft computing method in which a given inputoutput data set is expressed in a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The FIS implements a nonlinear mapping from its input space to the output space. The method of this study classified hotspots as target objects by correlating spatial attributes data using three folds in ANFIS algorithm to obtain the best model. The best result obtained from the 3rd fold provided low error for training (error = 0.0093676) and also low error testing result (error = 0.0093676). Attribute of distance to road is the most determining factor that influences the probability of true and false alarm where the level of human activities in this attribute is higher. This classification model can be used to develop early warning system of forest fire.
-
Comparison of Steady-State SVC Models in Load Flow Calculations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Peiyuan; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
2008-01-01
This paper compares in a load flow calculation three existing steady-state models of static var compensator (SVC), i.e. the generator-fixed susceptance model, the total susceptance model and the firing angle model. The comparison is made in terms of the voltage at the SVC regulated bus, equivalent...... SVC susceptance at the fundamental frequency and the load flow convergence rate both when SVC is operating within and on the limits. The latter two models give inaccurate results of the equivalent SVC susceptance as compared to the generator model due to the assumption of constant voltage when the SVC...... is operating within the limits. This may underestimate or overestimate the SVC regulating capability. Two modified models are proposed to improve the SVC regulated voltage according to its steady-state characteristic. The simulation results of the two modified models show the improved accuracy...
-
Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.
2018-01-01
The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.
-
Identifying and quantifying energy savings on fired plant using low cost modelling techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tucker, Robert; Ward, John
2012-01-01
Research highlights: → Furnace models based on the zone method for radiation calculation are described. → Validated steady-state and transient models have been developed. → We show how these simple models can identify the best options for saving energy. → High emissivity coatings predicted to give performance enhancement on a fired heater. → Optimal heat recovery strategies on a steel reheating furnace are predicted. -- Abstract: Combustion in fired heaters, boilers and furnaces often accounts for the major energy consumption on industrial processes. Small improvements in efficiency can result in large reductions in energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, and operating costs. This paper will describe some useful low cost modelling techniques based on the zone method to help identify energy saving opportunities on high temperature fuel-fired process plant. The zone method has for many decades, been successfully applied to small batch furnaces through to large steel-reheating furnaces, glass tanks, boilers and fired heaters on petrochemical plant. Zone models can simulate both steady-state furnace operation and more complex transient operation typical of a production environment. These models can be used to predict thermal efficiency and performance, and more importantly, to assist in identifying and predicting energy saving opportunities from such measures as: ·Improving air/fuel ratio and temperature controls. ·Improved insulation. ·Use of oxygen or oxygen enrichment. ·Air preheating via flue gas heat recovery. ·Modification to furnace geometry and hearth loading. There is also increasing interest in the application of refractory coatings for increasing surface radiation in fired plant. All of the techniques can yield savings ranging from a few percent upwards and can deliver rapid financial payback, but their evaluation often requires robust and reliable models in order to increase confidence in making financial investment decisions. This paper gives
-
The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildfire Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)
2001-01-01
The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?
-
The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildlife Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)
2001-01-01
The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Parresol, Bernard, R.; Scott, Joe, H.; Andreu, Anne; Prichard, Susan; Kurth, Laurie
2012-01-01
Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or thousands of measured surface fuelbeds representing the fine scale variation in fire behavior on the landscape is constrained in terms of creating compatible custom fire behavior fuel models. In this study, we demonstrate an objective method for taking ecologically complex fuelbeds from inventory observations and converting those into a set of custom fuel models that can be mapped to the original landscape. We use an original set of 629 fuel inventory plots measured on an 80,000 ha contiguous landscape in the upper Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States. From models linking stand conditions to component fuel loads, we impute fuelbeds for over 6000 stands. These imputed fuelbeds were then converted to fire behavior parameters under extreme fuel moisture and wind conditions (97th percentile) using the fuel characteristic classification system (FCCS) to estimate surface fire rate of spread, surface fire flame length, shrub layer reaction intensity (heat load), non-woody layer reaction intensity, woody layer reaction intensity, and litter-lichen-moss layer reaction intensity. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis of the stands based on the values of the fire behavior parameters. The resulting 7 clusters were the basis for the development of 7 custom fire behavior fuel models from the cluster centroids that were calibrated against the FCCS point data for wind and fuel moisture. The latter process resulted in calibration against flame length as it was difficult to obtain a simultaneous calibration against both rate of spread and flame length. The clusters based on FCCS fire behavior
-
Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari
2017-01-01
Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEII h R) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEII h R model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEII h R model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEII h R model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEII h R model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEII h R model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point ( S e ; E e ; I e ; I he ; R e )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable. (paper)
-
Numerical Field Model Simulation of Full Scale Fire Tests in a Closed Spherical/Cylindrical Vessel.
1987-12-01
the behavior of an actual fire on board a ship. The computer model will be verified by the experimental data obtained in Fire-l. It is important to... behavior in simulations where convection is important. The upwind differencing scheme takes into account the unsymmetrical phenomenon of convection by using...TANK CELL ON THE NORTH SIDE) FOR A * * PARTICULAR FIRE CELL * * COSUMS (I,J) = THE ARRAY TO STORE THE SIMILIAR VALUE FOR THE FIRE * * CELL TO THE SOUTH
-
Yin, Hang; Jin, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Fan, Yuguang; Qin, Liwu; Chen, Qinghong; Huang, Liya; Jia, Xiang; Liu, Lijie; Dai, Yuhong; Xiao, Ying
2018-03-01
The forest-fire not only brings great loss to natural resources, but also destructs the ecosystem and reduces the soil fertility, causing some natural disasters as soil erosion and debris flow. However, due to the lack of the prognosis for forest fire spreading trend in forest fire fighting, it is difficult to formulate rational and effective fire-fighting scheme. In the event of forest fire, achieving accurate judgment to the fire behavior would greatly improve the fire-fighting efficiency, and reduce heavy losses caused by fire. Researches on forest fire spread simulation can effectively reduce the loss of disasters. The present study focused on the simulation of "29 May 2012" wildfire in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Basic data were retrieved from the "29 May 2012" wildfire and field survey. A self-development forest fire behavior simulated program based on Rothermel Model was used in the simulation. Kappa coefficient and Sørensen index were employed to evaluate the simulation accuracy. The results showed that: The perimeter of simulated burned area was 4.66 km, the area was 56.47 hm2 and the overlapped burned area was 33.68 hm2, and the estimated rate of fire spread was 0.259 m/s. Between the simulated fire and actual fire, the Kappa coefficient was 0.7398 and the Sørensen co-efficient was 0.7419. This proved the application of Rothermel model to conduct fire behavior simulation in windthrow meadow was feasible. It can achieve the goal of forecasting for the spread behavior in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Thus, our self-development program based on the Rothermel model can provide a effective forecast of fire spread, which will facilitate the fire suppression work.
-
Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model
Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller
2016-01-01
Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...
-
Risk Assessment of the Main Control Room Fire Using Fire Simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung Cheol
2013-01-01
KAERI is performing a fire PSA for a reference plant, Ulchin Unit 3, as part of developing the Korean site risk profile (KSRP). Fire simulations of the MCR fire were conducted using the CFAST (Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport) model and FDS (fire dynamic simulator) to improve the uncertainty in the MCR fire risk analysis. Using the fire simulation results, the MCR abandonment risk was evaluated. Level 1 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) results of Ulchin Unit 3 using the EPRI PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) implementation guide showed that the MCR (main control room) fire was the main contributor to the core damage frequency. Recently, U. S. NRC and EPRI developed NUREG/CR-6850 to provide state-of-the-art methods, tools, and data for the conduct of a fire PSA for a commercial NPP
-
Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.
2015-01-01
Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating
-
R Barbero; J T Abatzoglou; E A Steel
2014-01-01
Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ¡Â60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric...
-
Lightning Forcing in Global Fire Models: The Importance of Temporal Resolution
Felsberg, A.; Kloster, S.; Wilkenskjeld, S.; Krause, A.; Lasslop, G.
2018-01-01
In global fire models, lightning is typically prescribed from observational data with monthly mean temporal resolution while meteorological forcings, such as precipitation or temperature, are prescribed in a daily resolution. In this study, we investigate the importance of the temporal resolution of the lightning forcing for the simulation of burned area by varying from daily to monthly and annual mean forcing. For this, we utilize the vegetation fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE to simulate burned area, forced with meteorological and lightning data derived from the general circulation model ECHAM6. On a global scale, differences in burned area caused by lightning forcing applied in coarser temporal resolution stay below 0.55% compared to the use of daily mean forcing. Regionally, however, differences reach up to 100%, depending on the region and season. Monthly averaged lightning forcing as well as the monthly lightning climatology cause differences through an interaction between lightning ignitions and fire prone weather conditions, accounted for by the fire danger index. This interaction leads to decreased burned area in the boreal zone and increased burned area in the Tropics and Subtropics under the coarser temporal resolution. The exclusion of interannual variability, when forced with the lightning climatology, has only a minor impact on the simulated burned area. Annually averaged lightning forcing causes differences as a direct result of the eliminated seasonal characteristics of lightning. Burned area is decreased in summer and increased in winter where fuel is available. Regions with little seasonality, such as the Tropics and Subtropics, experience an increase in burned area.
-
A Hybrid Physical and Maximum-Entropy Landslide Susceptibility Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jerry Davis
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The clear need for accurate landslide susceptibility mapping has led to multiple approaches. Physical models are easily interpreted and have high predictive capabilities but rely on spatially explicit and accurate parameterization, which is commonly not possible. Statistical methods can include other factors influencing slope stability such as distance to roads, but rely on good landslide inventories. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt model has been widely and successfully used in species distribution mapping, because data on absence are often uncertain. Similarly, knowledge about the absence of landslides is often limited due to mapping scale or methodology. In this paper a hybrid approach is described that combines the physically-based landslide susceptibility model “Stability INdex MAPping” (SINMAP with MaxEnt. This method is tested in a coastal watershed in Pacifica, CA, USA, with a well-documented landslide history including 3 inventories of 154 scars on 1941 imagery, 142 in 1975, and 253 in 1983. Results indicate that SINMAP alone overestimated susceptibility due to insufficient data on root cohesion. Models were compared using SINMAP stability index (SI or slope alone, and SI or slope in combination with other environmental factors: curvature, a 50-m trail buffer, vegetation, and geology. For 1941 and 1975, using slope alone was similar to using SI alone; however in 1983 SI alone creates an Areas Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of 0.785, compared with 0.749 for slope alone. In maximum-entropy models created using all environmental factors, the stability index (SI from SINMAP represented the greatest contributions in all three years (1941: 48.1%; 1975: 35.3; and 1983: 48%, with AUC of 0.795, 0822, and 0.859, respectively; however; using slope instead of SI created similar overall AUC values, likely due to the combined effect with plan curvature indicating focused hydrologic inputs and vegetation identifying the effect of root cohesion
-
Gary Achtemeier
2012-01-01
A cellular automata fire model represents âelementsâ of fire by autonomous agents. A few simple algebraic expressions substituted for complex physical and meteorological processes and solved iteratively yield simulations for âsuper-diffusiveâ fire spread and coupled surface-layer (2-m) fireâatmosphere processes. Pressure anomalies, which are integrals of the thermal...
-
A precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility model for natural gas transmission pipelines
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Finley, Jason P. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Valencia, California (United States); Slayter, David L.; Hitchcock, Chris S. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Walnut Creek, California (United States); Lee, Chih-Hung [Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Gas Systems Integrity Management, Walnut Creek, California (United States)
2010-07-01
Landslides related to heavy rainfall can cause extensive damage to natural gas transmission pipelines. Fugro William Lettis and Associates Inc. have developed and implemented a geographic information system (GIS) model that evaluates near real-time precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility. The model incorporates state-wide precipitation data and geologically-based landslide classifications to produce rapid landslide risk evaluation for Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PGandE) gas transmission system during winter rain storms in California. The precipitation data include pre-storm event quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and post-storm event quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The geologic classifications are based on slope, susceptible geologic formations, and the locations of historic or known landslide occurrences. Currently the model is calibrated using qualitative measures. This paper describes the development of the model algorithm and input data, model results, calibration efforts, and the on-going research and landslide collection warranted for continued refinement of the model.
-
Saide, P. E.; Peterson, D. A.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Ziemba, L. D.; Anderson, B.; Diskin, G. S.; Sachse, G. W.; Hair, J. W.; Butler, C. F.; Fenn, M. A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Dibb, J. E.; Yokelson, R. J.; Toon, B.; Carmichael, G. R.
2014-12-01
Large wildfire events are increasingly recognized for their adverse effects on air quality and visibility, thus providing motivation for improving smoke emission estimates. The Rim Fire, one of the largest events in California's history, produced a large smoke plume that was sampled by the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) DC-8 aircraft with a full suite of in-situ and remote sensing measurements on 26-27 August 2013. We developed an inversion methodology which uses the WRF-Chem modeling system to constrain hourly fire emissions, using as initial estimates the NASA Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). This method differs from the commonly performed top-down estimates that constrain daily (or longer time scale) emissions. The inversion method is able to simultaneously improve the model fit to various SEAC4RS airborne measurements (e.g., organic aerosol, carbon monoxide (CO), aerosol extinction), ground based measurements (e.g., AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD), CO), and satellite data (MODIS AOD) by modifying fire emissions and utilizing the information content of all these measurements. Preliminary results show that constrained emissions for a 6 day period following the largest fire growth are a factor 2-4 higher than the initial top-down estimates. Moreover, there is a tendency to increase nocturnal emissions by factors sometimes larger than 20, indicating that vigorous fire activity continued during the night. This deviation from a typical diurnal cycle is confirmed using geostationary satellite data. The constrained emissions also have a larger day-to-day variability than the initial emissions and correlate better to daily area burned estimates as observed by airborne infrared measurements (NIROPS). Experiments with the assimilation system show that performing the inversion using only satellite AOD data produces much smaller correction factors than when using all available data
-
Del Giudice, Marco
2016-01-01
According to models of differential susceptibility, the same neurobiological and temperamental traits that determine increased sensitivity to stress and adversity also confer enhanced responsivity to the positive aspects of the environment. Differential susceptibility models have expanded to include complex developmental processes in which genetic…
-
Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Ian D. Davies; Michael D. Flannigan; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; T. Scott Rupp
2007-01-01
Wildland fire is a major disturbance in most ecosystems worldwide (Crutzen and Goldammer 1993). The interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans, often referred to as the fire regime (Agee 1993; Clark 1993; Swetnam and Baisan 1996; Swetnam 1997), has major effects on dominant vegetation, ecosystem carbon budget, and biodiversity (Gardner et aL...
-
Minimizing post-fire erosion using rainwater harvesting practices
P. R. Garcia-Chevesich; R. Valdes; D. Neary; R. Pizarro
2015-01-01
Though wildfires can lead to tremendous rates of soil erosion, they also have several beneficial effects on natural areas. Plants in ecosystems that are susceptible to wildfires often survive through adaptation processes that include physical protection against heat, increased growth after a wildfire event and production of flammable materials that stimulate fire and...
-
Russell, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Saab, V.A.; Lehmkuhl, J.F.; Block, W.M.; Sauer, J.R.
2009-01-01
Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife
-
Fire protection and fire fighting in nuclear installations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1989-01-01
Fires are a threat to all technical installations. While fire protection has long been a well established conventional discipline, its application to nuclear facilities requires special considerations. Nevertheless, for a long time fire engineering has been somewhat neglected in the design and operation of nuclear installations. In the nuclear industry, the Browns Ferry fire in 1975 brought about an essential change in the attention paid to fire problems. Designers and plant operators, as well as insurance companies and regulators, increased their efforts to develop concepts and methods for reducing fire risks, not only to protect the capital investment in nuclear plants but also to consider the potential secondary effects which could lead to nuclear accidents. Although the number of fires in nuclear installations is still relatively large, their overall importance to the safety of nuclear power plants was not considered to be very high. Only more recently have probabilistic analyses changed this picture. The results may well have to be taken into account more carefully. Various aspects of fire fighting and fire protection were discussed during the Symposium, the first of its kind to be organized by the IAEA. It was convened in co-operation with several organizations working in the nuclear or fire protection fields. The intention was to gather experts from nuclear engineering areas and the conventional fire protection field at one meeting with a view to enhancing the exchange of information and experience and to presenting current knowledge on the various disciplines involved. The presentations at the meeting were subdivided into eight sessions: standards and licensing (6 papers); national fire safety practices (7 papers); fire safety by design (11 papers); fire fighting (2 papers); computer fire modeling (7 papers); fire safety in fuel center facilities (7 papers); fire testing of materials (3 papers); fire risk assessment (5 papers). A separate abstract was
-
Ingason, Haukur; Lönnermark, Anders
2015-01-01
This book covers a wide range of issues in fire safety engineering in tunnels, describes the phenomena related to tunnel fire dynamics, presents state-of-the-art research, and gives detailed solutions to these major issues. Examples for calculations are provided. The aim is to significantly improve the understanding of fire safety engineering in tunnels. Chapters on fuel and ventilation control, combustion products, gas temperatures, heat fluxes, smoke stratification, visibility, tenability, design fire curves, heat release, fire suppression and detection, CFD modeling, and scaling techniques all equip readers to create their own fire safety plans for tunnels. This book should be purchased by any engineer or public official with responsibility for tunnels. It would also be of interest to many fire protection engineers as an application of evolving technical principles of fire safety.
-
Muñoz-Esparza, Domingo; Kosović, Branko; Jiménez, Pedro A.; Coen, Janice L.
2018-04-01
The level-set method is typically used to track and propagate the fire perimeter in wildland fire models. Herein, a high-order level-set method using fifth-order WENO scheme for the discretization of spatial derivatives and third-order explicit Runge-Kutta temporal integration is implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting model wildland fire physics package, WRF-Fire. The algorithm includes solution of an additional partial differential equation for level-set reinitialization. The accuracy of the fire-front shape and rate of spread in uncoupled simulations is systematically analyzed. It is demonstrated that the common implementation used by level-set-based wildfire models yields to rate-of-spread errors in the range 10-35% for typical grid sizes (Δ = 12.5-100 m) and considerably underestimates fire area. Moreover, the amplitude of fire-front gradients in the presence of explicitly resolved turbulence features is systematically underestimated. In contrast, the new WRF-Fire algorithm results in rate-of-spread errors that are lower than 1% and that become nearly grid independent. Also, the underestimation of fire area at the sharp transition between the fire front and the lateral flanks is found to be reduced by a factor of ≈7. A hybrid-order level-set method with locally reduced artificial viscosity is proposed, which substantially alleviates the computational cost associated with high-order discretizations while preserving accuracy. Simulations of the Last Chance wildfire demonstrate additional benefits of high-order accurate level-set algorithms when dealing with complex fuel heterogeneities, enabling propagation across narrow fuel gaps and more accurate fire backing over the lee side of no fuel clusters.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.
2017-11-01
Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.
2017-01-01
Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.
-
Susceptibility and magnetization of a random Ising model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kumar, D; Srivastava, V [Roorkee Univ. (India). Dept. of Physics
1977-08-01
The susceptibility of a bond disordered Ising model is calculated by configurationally averaging an Ornstein-Zernike type of equation for the two spin correlation function. The equation for the correlation function is derived using a diagrammatic method due to Englert. The averaging is performed using bond CPA. The magnetization is also calculated by averaging in a similar manner a linearised molecular field equation.
-
Fire testing for package approval
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burgess, M.H.; Fry, C.J.
1990-01-01
The IAEA Transport Regulations require packaging systems for radioactive material to survive transport accidents without a significant increase in hazard to members of the public. Tests used to demonstrate this include a fire or 'thermal' test which may be a practical demonstration or based on calculations. Work at Winfrith, involving the development of computer models and pool fire techniques, has given an improved understanding of physical processes. This has been used to improve computer models and pool fire techniques. The paper covers the regulatory requirements for fire testing, the basic physics of fires, practical tests, computer modelling and their applications to package design. We have confidence in our ability to predict temperatures and other conditions in accident situations and can illustrate the important features of fires with experimental evidence. (author)
-
Dayton Aircraft Cabin Fire Model, Version 3, Volume I. Physical Description.
1982-06-01
contact to any surface directly above a burning element, provided that the current flame length makes contact possible. For fires originating on the...no extension of the flames horizontally beneath the surface is considered. The equation for computing the flame length is presented in Section 5. For...high as 0.3. The values chosen for DACFIR3 are 0.15 for Ec and 0.10 for E P. The Steward model is also used to compute flame length , hf, for the fire
-
Smith, Annabel L
2018-01-01
Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suliman, M D H; Mahmud, M; Reba, M N M; S, L W
2014-01-01
Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue
-
Suliman, M. D. H.; Mahmud, M.; Reba, M. N. M.; S, L. W.
2014-02-01
Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue
-
How to generate and interpret fire characteristics charts for surface and crown fire behavior
Patricia L. Andrews; Faith Ann Heinsch; Luke Schelvan
2011-01-01
A fire characteristics chart is a graph that presents primary related fire behavior characteristics-rate of spread, flame length, fireline intensity, and heat per unit area. It helps communicate and interpret modeled or observed fire behavior. The Fire Characteristics Chart computer program plots either observed fire behavior or values that have been calculated by...
-
Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.
2017-12-01
This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to
-
Tang, H.; McGuire, L.; Rengers, F. K.; Kean, J. W.; Staley, D. M.
2017-12-01
Wildfire significantly changes the hydrological characteristics of soil for a period of several years and increases the likelihood of flooding and debris flows during high-intensity rainfall in steep watersheds. Hazards related to post-fire flooding and debris flows increase as populations expand into mountainous areas that are susceptible to wildfire, post-wildfire flooding, and debris flows. However, our understanding of post-wildfire debris flows is limited due to a paucity of direct observations and measurements, partially due to the remote locations where debris flows tend to initiate. In these situations, numerical modeling becomes a very useful tool for studying post-wildfire debris flows. Research based on numerical modeling improves our understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for the increase in erosion and consequent formation of debris flows in burned areas. In this contribution, we study changes in sediment transport efficiency with time since burning by combining terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) surveys of a hillslope burned during the 2016 Fish Fire with numerical modeling of overland flow and sediment transport. We also combine the numerical model with measurements of debris flow timing to explore relationships between post-wildfire rainfall characteristics, soil infiltration capacity, hillslope erosion, and debris flow initiation at the drainage basin scale. Field data show that an initial rill network developed on the hillslope, and became more efficient over time as the overall rill density decreased. Preliminary model results suggest that this can be achieved when flow driven detachment mechanisms dominate and raindrop-driven detachment is minimized. Results also provide insight into the hydrologic and geomorphic conditions that lead to debris flow initiation within recently burned areas.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hosser, Dietmar; Riese, Olaf; Klingenberg, Mark
2005-01-01
As a part of the Fire Risk Research Program, the German iBMB (Institut fuer Baustoffe, Massivbau und Brandschutz) of Braunschweig University of Technology and GRS (Gesellschaft fuer Anlagenund Reaktorsicherheit mbH) are participating in an International Collaborative Fire Modeling Project (ICFMP) to assess and validate fire computer codes for nuclear power plant applications. This assessment is being conducted through benchmarking and validation exercises. The tests are simulating cable fires scenarios in a single compartment. The goal of the actual cable fire series is to investigate the effects of a natural fire to vertically routed cables (worst case) with different cable insulation material (PVC and FRNC). Another important aspect of cable fire is the risk of function failure. Therefore in the test series the short circuit and the conduction loss of cables are measured. This report includes a first description of the experimental results for test 1 - test 4 of the International Collaborative Fire Model Project conducted in December 2003 at the iBMB in Germany. The experimental data are reported on the International Collaborative Fire Model Project - Platform. The measured data shall be the basis for fire simulations. The tests show that the FRNC cables have significantly better characteristics in case of fire. No substantial flame spread takes place even in case of preheating. PVC cables could be ignited with a burner output of 50 kW, in contrary, the FRNC cables could be ignited at burner output of 150 kW. The preheating has a complex effect on the fire behavior of the cables. It may occur that gases are pyrolysed which are not ignited during the phase of preheating. These gases are transported from the cable surrounding and may leave the fire room. Short circuits occur first in case ''conductor to conductor'' and later in case ''conductor to tray''. The time periods until short circuits occur are strongly dependent on the preheating of the cables. In case of
-
LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis
2010-01-01
This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...
-
Elizabeth M. Powers; John D. Marshall; Jianwei Zhang; Liang Wei
2013-01-01
Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere and accumulating it in biomass storage pools. However, in dry conifer forests, fire occasionally returns large quantities of CO2 to the atmosphere. Both the total amount of carbon stored and its susceptibility to loss may be altered by post-fire land...
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vermesi, Izabella; Rein, Guillermo; Colella, Francesco
2017-01-01
Multiscale modelling of tunnel fires that uses a coupled 3D (fire area) and 1D (the rest of the tunnel) model is seen as the solution to the numerical problem of the large domains associated with long tunnels. The present study demonstrates the feasibility of the implementation of this method...... in FDS version 6.0, a widely used fire-specific, open source CFD software. Furthermore, it compares the reduction in simulation time given by multiscale modelling with the one given by the use of multiple processor calculation. This was done using a 1200m long tunnel with a rectangular cross......-section as a demonstration case. The multiscale implementation consisted of placing a 30MW fire in the centre of a 400m long 3D domain, along with two 400m long 1D ducts on each side of it, that were again bounded by two nodes each. A fixed volume flow was defined in the upstream duct and the two models were coupled...
-
Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark
2010-05-01
Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ehleringer, James [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Biology; Randerson, James [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Lai, Chun-Ta [San Diego State Univ., CA (United States)
2016-02-16
The objective of the proposed research was to collect data and develop models to improve our understanding of the role of drought and fire impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle in the western US, including impacts associated with urban systems as they impacted regional carbon cycles. Using data we collected and a synthesis of other measurements, we developed new ways (a) to evaluate the representation of drought stress and fire emissions in the Community Land Model, (b) to model net ecosystem exchange combining ground level atmospheric observations with boundary layer theory, (c) to model upstream impacts of fire and fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric carbon dioxide observations, and (d) to model carbon dioxide observations within urban systems and at the urban-wildland interfaces of forest ecosystems.
-
The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model
Bruno Scarpa
2013-01-01
In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle t...
-
Comparative Evaluation of Five Fire Emissions Datasets Using the GEOS-5 Model
Ichoku, C. M.; Pan, X.; Chin, M.; Bian, H.; Darmenov, A.; Ellison, L.; Kucsera, T. L.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Petrenko, M. M.; Wang, J.; Ge, C.; Wiedinmyer, C.
2017-12-01
Wildfires and other types of biomass burning affect most vegetated parts of the globe, contributing 40% of the annual global atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, as well as significant amounts of numerous trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane. Many of these smoke constituents affect the air quality and/or the climate system directly or through their interactions with solar radiation and cloud properties. However, fire emissions are poorly constrained in global and regional models, resulting in high levels of uncertainty in understanding their real impacts. With the advent of satellite remote sensing of fires and burned areas in the last couple of decades, a number of fire emissions products have become available for use in relevant research and applications. In this study, we evaluated five global biomass burning emissions datasets, namely: (1) GFEDv3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1); (2) GFEDv4s (Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires); (3) FEERv1 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0); (4) QFEDv2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4); and (5) Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) version 1.5. Overall, the spatial patterns of biomass burning emissions from these inventories are similar, although the magnitudes of the emissions can be noticeably different. The inventories derived using top-down approaches (QFEDv2.4 and FEERv1) are larger than those based on bottom-up approaches. For example, global organic carbon (OC) emissions in 2008 are: QFEDv2.4 (51.93 Tg), FEERv1 (28.48 Tg), FINN v1.5 (19.48 Tg), GFEDv3.1 (15.65 Tg) and GFEDv4s (13.76 Tg); representing a factor of 3.7 difference between the largest and the least. We also used all five biomass-burning emissions datasets to conduct aerosol simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5), and compared the resulting aerosol optical depth (AOD) output to the corresponding retrievals from MODIS
-
Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia.
Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina
2018-04-15
We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Camilo, Daniela Castro; Lombardo, Luigi; Mai, Paul Martin; Dou, Jie; Huser, Raphaë l
2017-01-01
Grid-based landslide susceptibility models at regional scales are computationally demanding when using a fine grid resolution. Conversely, Slope-Unit (SU) based susceptibility models allows to investigate the same areas offering two main advantages: 1) a smaller computational burden and 2) a more geomorphologically-oriented interpretation. In this contribution, we generate SU-based landslide susceptibility for the Sado Island in Japan. This island is characterized by deep-seated landslides which we assume can only limitedly be explained by the first two statistical moments (mean and variance) of a set of predictors within each slope unit. As a consequence, in a nested experiment, we first analyse the distributions of a set of continuous predictors within each slope unit computing the standard deviation and quantiles from 0.05 to 0.95 with a step of 0.05. These are then used as predictors for landslide susceptibility. In addition, we combine shape indices for polygon features and the normalized extent of each class belonging to the outcropping lithology in a given SU. This procedure significantly enlarges the size of the predictor hyperspace, thus producing a high level of slope-unit characterization. In a second step, we adopt a LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model to shrink back the predictor set to a sensible and interpretable number, carrying only the most significant covariates in the models. As a result, we are able to document the geomorphic features (e.g., 95% quantile of Elevation and 5% quantile of Plan Curvature) that primarily control the SU-based susceptibility within the test area while producing high predictive performances. The implementation of the statistical analyses are included in a parallelized R script (LUDARA) which is here made available for the community to replicate analogous experiments.
-
Camilo, Daniela Castro
2017-08-30
Grid-based landslide susceptibility models at regional scales are computationally demanding when using a fine grid resolution. Conversely, Slope-Unit (SU) based susceptibility models allows to investigate the same areas offering two main advantages: 1) a smaller computational burden and 2) a more geomorphologically-oriented interpretation. In this contribution, we generate SU-based landslide susceptibility for the Sado Island in Japan. This island is characterized by deep-seated landslides which we assume can only limitedly be explained by the first two statistical moments (mean and variance) of a set of predictors within each slope unit. As a consequence, in a nested experiment, we first analyse the distributions of a set of continuous predictors within each slope unit computing the standard deviation and quantiles from 0.05 to 0.95 with a step of 0.05. These are then used as predictors for landslide susceptibility. In addition, we combine shape indices for polygon features and the normalized extent of each class belonging to the outcropping lithology in a given SU. This procedure significantly enlarges the size of the predictor hyperspace, thus producing a high level of slope-unit characterization. In a second step, we adopt a LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model to shrink back the predictor set to a sensible and interpretable number, carrying only the most significant covariates in the models. As a result, we are able to document the geomorphic features (e.g., 95% quantile of Elevation and 5% quantile of Plan Curvature) that primarily control the SU-based susceptibility within the test area while producing high predictive performances. The implementation of the statistical analyses are included in a parallelized R script (LUDARA) which is here made available for the community to replicate analogous experiments.
-
46 CFR 28.820 - Fire pumps, fire mains, fire hydrants, and fire hoses.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fire pumps, fire mains, fire hydrants, and fire hoses... REQUIREMENTS FOR COMMERCIAL FISHING INDUSTRY VESSELS Aleutian Trade Act Vessels § 28.820 Fire pumps, fire mains, fire hydrants, and fire hoses. (a) Each vessel must be equipped with a self-priming, power driven fire...
-
Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem
Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo
2010-05-01
The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in
-
David R. Weise; Eunmo Koo; Xiangyang Zhou; Shankar Mahalingam; Frédéric Morandini; Jacques-Henri Balbi
2016-01-01
Fire behaviour data from 240 laboratory fires in high-density live chaparral fuel beds were compared with model predictions. Logistic regression was used to develop a model to predict fire spread success in the fuel beds and linear regression was used to predict rate of spread. Predictions from the Rothermel equation and three proposed changes as well as two physically...
-
Operating room fire prevention: creating an electrosurgical unit fire safety device.
Culp, William C; Kimbrough, Bradly A; Luna, Sarah; Maguddayao, Aris J
2014-08-01
To reduce the incidence of surgical fires. Operating room fires represent a potentially life-threatening hazard and are triggered by the electrosurgical unit (ESU) pencil. Carbon dioxide is a fire suppressant and is a routinely used medical gas. We hypothesize that a shroud of protective carbon dioxide covering the tip of the ESU pencil displaces oxygen, thereby preventing fire ignition. Using 3-dimensional modeling techniques, a polymer sleeve was created and attached to an ESU pencil. This sleeve was connected to a carbon dioxide source and directed the gas through multiple precisely angled ports, generating a cone of fire-suppressive carbon dioxide surrounding the active pencil tip. This device was evaluated in a flammability test chamber containing 21%, 50%, and 100% oxygen with sustained ESU activation. The sleeve was tested with and without carbon dioxide (control) until a fuel was ignited or 30 seconds elapsed. Time to ignition was measured by high-speed videography. Fires were ignited with each control trial (15/15 trials). The control group median ± SD ignition time in 21% oxygen was 3.0 ± 2.4 seconds, in 50% oxygen was 0.1 ± 1.8 seconds, and in 100% oxygen was 0.03 ± 0.1 seconds. No fire was observed when the fire safety device was used in all concentrations of oxygen (0/15 trials; P fire ignition was 76% to 100%. A sleeve creating a cone of protective carbon dioxide gas enshrouding the sparks from an ESU pencil effectively prevents fire in a high-flammability model. Clinical application of this device may reduce the incidence of operating room fires.
-
Loranty, M. M.; Goetz, S. J.; Mack, M. C.; Alexander, H. D.; Beck, P. S.
2011-12-01
High latitude ecosystems are experiencing amplified climate warming, and recent evidence suggests concurrent intensification of fire disturbance regimes. In central Alaskan boreal forests, severe burns consume more of the soil organic layer, resulting in increased establishment of deciduous seedlings and altered post-fire stand composition with increased deciduous dominance. Quantifying differences in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics between forest successional trajectories in response to burn severity is essential for understanding potential changes in regional or global feedbacks between boreal forests and climate. We used the Biome BioGeochemical Cycling model (Biome-BGC) to quantify differences in C stocks and fluxes associated with alternate post-fire successional trajectories related to fire severity. A version of Biome-BGC that allows alternate competing vegetation types was calibrated against a series of aboveground biomass observations from chronosequences of stands with differing post-fire successional trajectories characterized by the proportion of deciduous biomass. The model was able to reproduce observed patterns of biomass accumulation after fire, with stands dominated by deciduous species sequestering more C at a faster rate than stands dominated by conifers. Modeled C fluxes suggest that stands dominated by deciduous species are a stronger sink of atmospheric C soon after disturbance than coniferous stands. These results agree with the few available C flux observations. We use a historic database in conjunction with a map of deciduous canopy cover to explore the consequences of ongoing and potential future changes in the fire regime on central Alaskan C balance.
-
Fire science at LLNL: A review
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hasegawa, H.K. (ed.)
1990-03-01
This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas A. Spies
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than
-
Theory of the one-dimensional forest-fire model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paczuski, M.; Bak, P.
1993-01-01
Turbulent cascade processes are studied in terms of a one-dimensional forest-fire model. A hier- archy of steady-state equations for the forests and the holes between them is constructed and solved within a mean-field closure scheme. The exact hole distribution function is found to be N H (s)=4N/[s(s+1)(s+2)], where N is the number of forests
-
Fire scenarios in nuclear power plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asp, I.B.; MacDougall, E.A.; Hall, R.E.
1978-01-01
This report defines a Design Base Fire and looks at 3 major areas of a hypothetical model for a Nuclear Power Plant. In each of these areas a Design Base Fire was developed and explained. In addition, guidance is given for comparing fire conditions of a given Nuclear Power Plant with the model plant described. Since there is such a wide variation in nuclear plant layouts, model areas were chosen for simplicity. The areas were not patterned after any existing plant area; rather several plant layouts were reviewed and a simplified model developed. The developed models considered several types of fires. The fire selected was considered to be the dominant one for the case in point. In general, the dominant fire selected is time dependent and starts at a specific location. After these models were developed, a comparison was drawn between the model and an operating plant for items such as area, cable numbers and weight, tray sizes and lengths. The heat loads of the model plant are summarized by area and compared with those of an actual operating plant. This document is intended to be used as a guide in the evaluation of fire hazards in nuclear power stations and a summarization of one acceptable analytical methodology to accomplish this
-
Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat
Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Feridun Turkman, K.
2018-02-01
We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004-2016) and validated against the period of January-September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the extreme class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.
-
Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. M. Pinto
2018-02-01
Full Text Available We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004–2016 and validated against the period of January–September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the extreme class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS or the Fire Risk Map (FRM product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.
-
N.E. Grulke; R.A. Minnich; T. Paine; P. Riggan
2010-01-01
Many factors increase susceptibility of forests to wildfire. Among them are increases in human population, changes in land use, fire suppression, and frequent droughts. These factors have been exacerbating forest susceptibility to wildfires over the last century in southern California. Here we report on the significant role that air pollution has on increasing forest...
-
Modeling the differentiation of A- and C-type baroreceptor firing patterns
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sturdy, Jacob; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Olufsen, Mette
2017-01-01
The baroreceptor neurons serve as the primary transducers of blood pressure for the autonomic nervous system and are thus critical in enabling the body to respond effectively to changes in blood pressure. These neurons can be separated into two types (A and C) based on the myelination...... of their axons and their distinct firing patterns elicited in response to specific pressure stimuli. This study has developed a comprehensive model of the afferent baroreceptor discharge built on physiological knowledge of arterial wall mechanics, firing rate responses to controlled pressure stimuli, and ion...
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew G. Spencer
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Prescribed fire is a critical tool for promoting restoration and increasing resilience in fire-adapted ecosystems, but there are barriers to its use, including a shortage of personnel with adequate ecological knowledge and operational expertise to implement prescribed fire across multijurisdictional landscapes. In the United States, recognized needs for both professional development and increased use of fire are not being met, often because of institutional limitations. The Fire Learning Network has been characterized as a multiscalar, collaborative network that works to enhance the adaptive capacity of fire management institutions, and this network developed the Prescribed Fire Training Exchanges (TREXs to address persistent challenges in increasing the capacity for prescribed fire implementation. Our research was designed to investigate where fire professionals face professional barriers, how the TREX addresses these, and in what ways the TREX may be contributing to the adaptive capacity of fire management institutions. We evaluated the training model using surveys, interviews, focus groups, and participant observation. We found that, although the training events cannot overcome all institutional barriers, they incorporate the key components of professional development in fire; foster collaboration, learning, and network building; and provide flexible opportunities with an emphasis on local context to train a variety of professionals with disparate needs. The strategy also offers an avenue for overcoming barriers faced by contingent and nonfederal fire professionals in attaining training and operational experience, thereby increasing the variety of actors and resources involved in fire management. Although it is an incremental step, the TREX is contributing to the adaptive capacity of institutions in social-ecological systems in which fire is a critical ecological process.
-
Ghil, M.; Spyratos, V.; Bourgeron, P. S.
2007-12-01
The late summer of 2007 has seen again a large number of catastrophic forest fires in the Western United States and Southern Europe. These fires arose in or spread to human habitats at the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Within the conterminous United States alone, the WUI occupies just under 10 percent of the surface and contains almost 40 percent of all housing units. Recent dry spells associated with climate variability and climate change make the impact of such catastrophic fires a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists and the general public. In order to explore the qualitative influence of the presence of houses on fire spread, we considered only uniform landscapes and fire spread as a simple percolation process, with given house densities d and vegetation flammabilities p. Wind, topography, fuel heterogeneities, firebrands and weather affect actual fire spread. The present theoretical results would therefore, need to be integrated into more detailed fire models before practical, quantitative applications of the present results. Our simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, shows that fire-size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density d and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability p and house density d. The sharpness of this transition is related to the critical thresholds that arise in percolation theory for an infinite domain; it is their translation into our model's finite-area domain, which is a more realistic representation of actual fire landscapes. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition zone. Hence, and despite having neglected additional complexities, our idealized model's results indicate that more detailed models used for assessing fire risk in the WUI should integrate the density and flammability of houses in these areas. Furthermore, our
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.
1989-01-01
An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs
-
46 CFR 28.315 - Fire pumps, fire mains, fire hydrants, and fire hoses.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fire pumps, fire mains, fire hydrants, and fire hoses... After September 15, 1991, and That Operate With More Than 16 Individuals on Board § 28.315 Fire pumps, fire mains, fire hydrants, and fire hoses. (a) Each vessel 36 feet (11.8 meters) or more in length must...
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lluís Brotons
Full Text Available Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain. We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape
-
Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew
2013-01-01
Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and
-
Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew
2013-01-01
Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Trentmann
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Wildland fires in boreal regions have the potential to initiate deep convection, so-called pyro-convection, due to their release of sensible heat. Under favorable atmospheric conditions, large fires can result in pyro-convection that transports the emissions into the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Here, we present three-dimensional model simulations of the injection of fire emissions into the lower stratosphere by pyro-convection. These model simulations are constrained and evaluated with observations obtained from the Chisholm fire in Alberta, Canada, in 2001. The active tracer high resolution atmospheric model (ATHAM is initialized with observations obtained by radiosonde. Information on the fire forcing is obtained from ground-based observations of the mass and moisture of the burned fuel. Based on radar observations, the pyro-convection reached an altitude of about 13 km, well above the tropopause, which was located at about 11.2 km. The model simulation yields a similarly strong convection with an overshoot of the convection above the tropopause. The main outflow from the pyro-convection occurs at about 10.6 km, but a significant fraction (about 8% of the emitted mass of the smoke aerosol is transported above the tropopause. In contrast to regular convection, the region with maximum updraft velocity in the pyro-convection is located close to the surface above the fire. This results in high updraft velocities >10 m s−1 at cloud base. The temperature anomaly in the plume decreases rapidly with height from values above 50 K at the fire to about 5 K at about 3000 m above the fire. While the sensible heat released from the fire is responsible for the initiation of convection in the model, the release of latent heat from condensation and freezing dominates the overall energy budget. Emissions of water vapor from the fire do not significantly contribute to the energy budget of the convection.
-
Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather
Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly
2010-01-01
Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heydari, Somayeh; Siddiqui, Afzal
2010-01-01
Energy prices are often highly volatile with unexpected spikes. Capturing these sudden spikes may lead to more informed decision-making in energy investments, such as valuing gas-fired power plants, than ignoring them. In this paper, non-linear regime-switching models and models with mean-reverting stochastic volatility are compared with ordinary linear models. The study is performed using UK electricity and natural gas daily spot prices and suggests that with the aim of valuing a gas-fired power plant with and without operational flexibility, non-linear models with stochastic volatility, specifically for logarithms of electricity prices, provide better out-of-sample forecasts than both linear models and regime-switching models.
-
Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Coşkun Okan Güney
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to present the fire ignition risk for Manavgat-Antalya District to enable the planning of firefighting sources in a more qualified way. From sites within the study area, where forest fires broke out or not during the past five years, we obtained geographical coordinates, climate data, topographical data and variables like bedrock, stand types, settlement areas, roads and power lines and prepared them with geographical information systems. For all variables we performed Wilcoxon rank-sum test, interspecific correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis and obtained 4 different models. When ROC analysis was applied to these models, model 4 was determined as the most significant model and therefore used to prepare the fire ignition risk map for the Manavgat-Antalya District. According to this map, ignition risk within the study area was highest in and around settlement areas where roads and power lines concentrate and Turkish red pine is distributed, but it was lowest afar of settlement areas without roads and where species apart from Turkish red pine are distributed. According to the results some suggestions were made.
-
Simulation of forced-ventilation fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krause, F.R.; Gregory, W.S.
1982-01-01
Fire hazard descriptions and compartment fire models are assessed as input to airflow network analysis methods that simulate the exposure of ventilation system components to fire products. The assessment considered the availability of hazard descriptions and models for predicting simultaneous heat and mass release at special compartment openings that are characterized by a one-dimensional and controllable volumetric flux
-
Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada
J.J. Moghaddas; B.M. Collins; K. Menning; E.E.Y. Moghaddas; S.L. Stephens
2010-01-01
Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection...
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Angner, A.; Berg, H.P.; Roewekamp, M.; Werner, W.; Gauvain, J.
2007-01-01
Realistic modelling of fire scenarios is still difficult due to the scarcity of reliable data needed for deterministic and probabilistic fire safety analysis. Therefore, it has been recognized as highly important to establish a fire event database on an international level. In consequence, several member countries of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD have decided in 2000 to establish the International Fire Data Exchange Project (OECD FIRE) to encourage multilateral co-operation in the collection and analysis of data related to fire events at nuclear power plants. This paper presents the OECD FIRE project objectives, work scope and current status of the OECD FIRE database after 3 years of operation as well as first preliminary statistical insights gained from the collected data. (orig.)
-
Fires involving radioactive materials : transference model; operative recommendations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodriguez, C.E.; Puntarulo, L.J.; Canibano, J.A.
1988-01-01
In all aspects related to the nuclear activity, the occurrence of an explosion, fire or burst type accident, with or without victims, is directly related to the characteristics of the site. The present work analyses the different parameters involved, describing a transference model and recommendations for evaluation and control of the radiological risk for firemen. Special emphasis is placed on the measurement of the variables existing in this kind of operations
-
The development of thermal models for a UF6 transport container in a fully engulfing fire
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lomas, J.; Clayton, D.G.
1993-01-01
This paper describes the recent development work on a lumped-parameter model known as BURST3 created by BNFL to examine the physics of the heating problem. The predictions of this model were compared with the results obtained by Mallett in 1965, in which small (3.5, 5 and 8 inch diameter) cylinders were exposed to a fire. In general, the comparison is good; however there are some differences - particularly on the speed of response of the wall temperature to the heating from the fire. The model was further modified to allow conditions of partial and full insulation to be investigated. The partially insulated condition simulates the Japanese proposal to insulate the ends of the container only, leaving the cylinder bare between the stiffening rings. The results obtained with our modified model support the predictions of Abe et al that the partially-insulated cylinder will survive the fire test. The analysis of a completely insulated container has indicated that a minimal thickness of insulation provides sufficient protection to allow survival in the fire test. A discussion of additional improvements to the lumped-parameter model are presented. (J.P.N.)
-
Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions.
Costafreda-Aumedes, S; Vega-Garcia, C; Comas, C
2018-07-01
Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boccio, J.L.; Usher, J.L.; Singhal, A.K.; Tam, L.T.
1985-08-01
A fire in a nuclear power plant (NPP) can damage equipment needed to safely operate the plant and thereby either directly cause an accident or else reduce the plant's margin of safety. The development of a field-model fire code to analyze the probable fire environments encountered within NPP is discussed. A set of fire tests carried out under the aegis of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is described. The results of these tests are then utilized to validate the field model
-
Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System Failure Model
Nino Prieto, Omar Ariosto; Colmenares Guillen, Luis Enrique
2013-09-01
In this paper the Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System is presented. This architecture is a legacy of the Detection System for Real-Time Physical Variables which is undergoing a patent process in Mexico. The methodologies for this design are the Structured Analysis for Real Time (SA- RT) [8], and the software is carried out by LACATRE (Langage d'aide à la Conception d'Application multitâche Temps Réel) [9,10] Real Time formal language. The system failures model is analyzed and the proposal is based on the formal language for the design of critical systems and Risk Assessment; AltaRica. This formal architecture uses satellites as input sensors and it was adapted from the original model which is a design pattern for physical variation detection in Real Time. The original design, whose task is to monitor events such as natural disasters and health related applications, or actual sickness monitoring and prevention, as the Real Time Diabetes Monitoring System, among others. Some related work has been presented on the Mexican Space Agency (AEM) Creation and Consultation Forums (2010-2011), and throughout the International Mexican Aerospace Science and Technology Society (SOMECYTA) international congress held in San Luis Potosí, México (2012). This Architecture will allow a Real Time Fire Satellite Monitoring, which will reduce the damage and danger caused by fires which consumes the forests and tropical forests of Mexico. This new proposal, permits having a new system that impacts on disaster prevention, by combining national and international technologies and cooperation for the benefit of humankind.
-
A fire risk assessment model for residential high-rises with a single stairwell
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, N. D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Valkvist, M.B.
2018-01-01
As few or none prescriptive guidelines for fire risk assessment of residential high-rise buildings exist, it has been unclear which fire safety design features constitute an acceptable (adequate) safety level. In order to fill this gap a simplified risk-based decision-support tool, the Fire Risk...... Model (FRM), was developed. The FRM evaluates both the risk level to the occupants and the property risk level as a function of the building characteristics, height and fire safety features for single stairwell residential high-rise buildings. The acceptability of a high-rise design is then defined......, and the associated performance of the FRM evaluated. It was found that compartmentation and the door configurations in the egress path play an important role, along with sprinklers, in order for the design to successfully keep the stairwell free from smoke. Specifically, modern curtain wall facades were found...
-
Baker, K R; Woody, M C; Valin, L; Szykman, J; Yates, E L; Iraci, L T; Choi, H D; Soja, A J; Koplitz, S N; Zhou, L; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Jimenez, Jose L; Hair, J W
2018-10-01
The Rim Fire was one of the largest wildfires in California history, burning over 250,000 acres during August and September 2013 affecting air quality locally and regionally in the western U.S. Routine surface monitors, remotely sensed data, and aircraft based measurements were used to assess how well the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model applied at 4 and 12 km resolution represented regional plume transport and chemical evolution during this extreme wildland fire episode. Impacts were generally similar at both grid resolutions although notable differences were seen in some secondary pollutants (e.g., formaldehyde and peroxyacyl nitrate) near the Rim fire. The modeling system does well at capturing near-fire to regional scale smoke plume transport compared to remotely sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aircraft transect measurements. Plume rise for the Rim fire was well characterized as the modeled plume top was consistent with remotely sensed data and the altitude of aircraft measurements, which were typically made at the top edge of the plume. Aircraft-based lidar suggests O 3 downwind in the Rim fire plume was vertically stratified and tended to be higher at the plume top, while CMAQ estimated a more uniformly mixed column of O 3 . Predicted wildfire ozone (O 3 ) was overestimated both at the plume top and at nearby rural and urban surface monitors. Photolysis rates were well characterized by the model compared with aircraft measurements meaning aerosol attenuation was reasonably estimated and unlikely contributing to O 3 overestimates at the top of the plume. Organic carbon was underestimated close to the Rim fire compared to aircraft data, but was consistent with nearby surface measurements. Periods of elevated surface PM 2.5 at rural monitors near the Rim fire were not usually coincident with elevated O 3 . Published by Elsevier B.V.
-
First-order fire effects on herbs and Shrubs: present knowledge and process modeling needs
Kirsten Stephan; Melanie Miller; Matthew B. Dickinson
2010-01-01
Herbaceous plants and shrubs have received little attention in terms of fire effects modeling despite their critical role in ecosystem integrity and resilience after wildfires and prescribed burns. In this paper, we summarize current knowledge of direct effects of fire on herb and shrub (including cacti) vegetative tissues and seed banks, propose key components for...
-
Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.
2013-01-01
Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation
-
Application of an advanced fuzzy logic model for landslide susceptibility analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Biswajeet Pradhan
2010-09-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate the susceptibility of landslides at Klang valley area, Malaysia, using a Geographic Information System (GIS and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and from field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. A data derived model (frequency ratio and a knowledge-derived model (fuzzy operator were combined for landslide susceptibility analysis. The nine factors that influence landslide occurrence were extracted from the database and the frequency ratio coefficient for each factor was computed. Using the factors and the identified landslide, the fuzzy membership values were calculated. Then fuzzy algebraic operators were applied to the fuzzy membership values for landslide susceptibility mapping. Finally, the produced map was verified by comparing with existing landslide locations for calculating prediction accuracy. Among the fuzzy operators, in the case in which the gamma operator (l = 0.8 showed the best accuracy (91% while the case in which the fuzzy algebraic product was applied showed the worst accuracy (79%.
-
A Susceptible Mouse Model for Zika Virus Infection.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stuart D Dowall
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is a mosquito-borne pathogen which has recently spread beyond Africa and into Pacific and South American regions. Despite first being detected in 1947, very little information is known about the virus, and its spread has been associated with increases in Guillain-Barre syndrome and microcephaly. There are currently no known vaccines or antivirals against ZIKV infection. Progress in assessing interventions will require the development of animal models to test efficacies; however, there are only limited reports on in vivo studies. The only susceptible murine models have involved intracerebral inoculations or juvenile animals, which do not replicate natural infection. Our report has studied the effect of ZIKV infection in type-I interferon receptor deficient (A129 mice and the parent strain (129Sv/Ev after subcutaneous challenge in the lower leg to mimic a mosquito bite. A129 mice developed severe symptoms with widespread viral RNA detection in the blood, brain, spleen, liver and ovaries. Histological changes were also striking in these animals. 129Sv/Ev mice developed no clinical symptoms or histological changes, despite viral RNA being detectable in the blood, spleen and ovaries, albeit at lower levels than those seen in A129 mice. Our results identify A129 mice as being highly susceptible to ZIKV and thus A129 mice represent a suitable, and urgently required, small animal model for the testing of vaccines and antivirals.
-
Sankey, Joel B.; McVay, Jason C.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Vaillant, Nicole; Lowe, Scott
2015-01-01
Increased sedimentation following wildland fire can negatively impact water supply and water quality. Understanding how changing fire frequency, extent, and location will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize erosion and sedimentation of burned watersheds. InVEST was developed by the Natural Capital Project at Stanford University (Tallis et al., 2014) and is a suite of GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., USLE – Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured postfire sediment yields available for many watersheds throughout the western USA from an existing, published large database. We show that the model can be parameterized in a relatively simple fashion to predict post-fire sediment yield with accuracy. Our ultimate goal is to use the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield at a watershed scale as a function of future wildfire conditions.
-
Large scale fire experiments in the HDR containment as a basis for fire code development
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hosser, D.; Dobbernack, R.
1993-01-01
Between 1984 and 1991 7 different series of large scale fire experiments and related numerical and theoretical investigations have been performed in the containment of a high pressure reactor in Germany (known as HDR plant). The experimental part included: gas burner tests for checking the containment behaviour; naturally ventilated fires with wood cribs; naturally and forced ventilated oil pool fires; naturally and forced ventilated cable fires. Many results of the oil pool and cable fires can directly be applied to predict the impact of real fires at different locations in a containment on mechanical or structural components as well as on plant personnel. But the main advantage of the measurements and observations was to serve as a basis for fire code development and validation. Different types of fire codes have been used to predict in advance or evaluate afterwards the test results: zone models for single room and multiple room configurations; system codes for multiple room configurations; field models for complex single room configurations. Finally, there exist codes of varying degree of specialization which have proven their power and sufficient exactness to predict fire effects as a basis for optimum fire protection design. (author)
-
Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping
2017-04-08
An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.
-
Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes
Minsley, Burke J.; Pastick, Neal J.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Brown, Dana R.N.; Kass, M. Andy
2016-01-01
Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multiscale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near-surface (1 m) impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned-unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface electrical resistivity and nuclear magnetic resonance data indicate locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also areas where permafrost has thawed. High-resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near-surface permafrost and also add new high-fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Results show that postfire impacts on permafrost can be variable and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, soil moisture, and time since fire.
-
Tait, Luke; Wedgwood, Kyle; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Brown, Jon T; Goodfellow, Marc
2018-07-14
The entorhinal cortex is a crucial component of our memory and spatial navigation systems and is one of the first areas to be affected in dementias featuring tau pathology, such as Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia. Electrophysiological recordings from principle cells of medial entorhinal cortex (layer II stellate cells, mEC-SCs) demonstrate a number of key identifying properties including subthreshold oscillations in the theta (4-12 Hz) range and clustered action potential firing. These single cell properties are correlated with network activity such as grid firing and coupling between theta and gamma rhythms, suggesting they are important for spatial memory. As such, experimental models of dementia have revealed disruption of organised dorsoventral gradients in clustered action potential firing. To better understand the mechanisms underpinning these different dynamics, we study a conductance based model of mEC-SCs. We demonstrate that the model, driven by extrinsic noise, can capture quantitative differences in clustered action potential firing patterns recorded from experimental models of tau pathology and healthy animals. The differential equation formulation of our model allows us to perform numerical bifurcation analyses in order to uncover the dynamic mechanisms underlying these patterns. We show that clustered dynamics can be understood as subcritical Hopf/homoclinic bursting in a fast-slow system where the slow sub-system is governed by activation of the persistent sodium current and inactivation of the slow A-type potassium current. In the full system, we demonstrate that clustered firing arises via flip bifurcations as conductance parameters are varied. Our model analyses confirm the experimentally suggested hypothesis that the breakdown of clustered dynamics in disease occurs via increases in AHP conductance. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
-
Barrett, K.; Kasischke, E. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Turetsky, M. R.; Kane, E. S.
2010-01-01
Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface
-
McGinnis, Thomas W.; Keeley, Jon E.; Stephens, Scott L.; Roller, Gary B.
2010-01-01
Typically, after large stand-replacing fires in mid-elevation Sierra Nevada forests, dense shrub fields occupy sites formerly occupied by mature conifers, until eventually conifers overtop and shade out shrubs. Attempting to reduce fuel loads and expedite forest regeneration in these areas, the USDA Forest Service often disrupts this cycle by the logging of fire-killed trees, replanting of conifers and killing of shrubs. We measured the effects of these treatments on live and dead fuel loads and alien species and modeled potential fire behavior and fire effects on regenerating forests. Sampling occurred in untreated, logged and herbicide-treated stands throughout the Sierra Nevada in four large fire areas 4–21 years after stand-replacing fires. Logging fire-killed trees significantly increased total available dead fuel loads in the short term but did not affect shrub cover, grass and forb cover, alien species cover or alien species richness. Despite the greater available dead fuel loads, fire behavior was not modeled to be different between logged and untreated stands, due to abundant shrub fuels in both logged and untreated stands. In contrast, the herbicide treatment directed at shrubs resulted in extremely low shrub cover, significantly greater alien species richness and significantly greater alien grass and forb cover. Grass and forb cover was strongly correlated with solar radiation on the ground, which may be the primary reason that grass and forb cover was higher in herbicide treated stands with low shrub and tree cover. Repeat burning exacerbated the alien grass problem in some stands. Although modeled surface fire flame lengths and rates of spread were found to be greater in stands dominated by shrubs, compared to low shrub cover conifer plantations, surface fire would still be intense enough to kill most trees, given their small size and low crown heights in the first two decades after planting.
-
Birth Order and Susceptibility to Peer Modeling Influences in Young Boys
Finley, Gordon E.; Cheyne, James A.
1976-01-01
Susceptibility to peer modeling influences as a function of birth order was studied by examining the data of 390 boys from kindergarten through third grade who previously had participated in moral transgression experiments. (MS)
-
Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models
Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson
2009-01-01
We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...
-
Jill F. Johnstone; T. Scott Rupp; Mark Olson; David. Verbyla
2011-01-01
Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous...
-
Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: a process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II
Brian R. Sturtevant; Robert M. Scheller; Brian R. Miranda; Douglas Shinneman; Alexandra Syphard
2009-01-01
Fire regimes result from reciprocal interactions between vegetation and fire that may be further affected by other disturbances, including climate, landform, and terrain. In this paper, we describe fire and fuel extensions for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, that allow dynamic interactions among fire, vegetation, climate, and landscape structure, and...
-
Temperature of Steel Columns under Natural Fire
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Wald
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Current fire design models for time-temperature development within structural elements as well as for structural behaviour are based on isolated member tests subjected to standard fire regimes, which serve as a reference heating, but do not model natural fire. Only tests on a real structure under a natural fire can evaluate future models of the temperature developments in a fire compartment, of the transfer of heat into the structure and of the overall structural behaviour under fire.To study overall structural behaviour, a research project was conducted on an eight storey steel frame building at the Cardington Building Research Establishment laboratory on January 16, 2003. A fire compartment 11×7 m was prepared on the fourth floor. A fire load of 40 kg/m2 was applied with 100 % permanent mechanical load and 65 % of imposed load. The paper summarises the experimental programme and shows the temperature development of the gas in the fire compartment and of the fire protected columns bearing the unprotected floors.
-
Finite-size behaviour of generalized susceptibilities in the whole phase plane of the Potts model
Pan, Xue; Zhang, Yanhua; Chen, Lizhu; Xu, Mingmei; Wu, Yuanfang
2018-01-01
We study the sign distribution of generalized magnetic susceptibilities in the temperature-external magnetic field plane using the three-dimensional three-state Potts model. We find that the sign of odd-order susceptibility is opposite in the symmetric (disorder) and broken (order) phases, but that of the even-order one remains positive when it is far away from the phase boundary. When the critical point is approached from the crossover side, negative fourth-order magnetic susceptibility is observable. It is also demonstrated that non-monotonic behavior occurs in the temperature dependence of the generalized susceptibilities of the energy. The finite-size scaling behavior of the specific heat in this model is mainly controlled by the critical exponent of the magnetic susceptibility in the three-dimensional Ising universality class. Supported by Fund Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (11647093, 11405088, 11521064), Fund Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education (16ZB0339), Fund Project of Chengdu Technological University (2016RC004) and the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402)
-
St-Onge, Guillaume; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Laurence, Edward; Murphy, Charles; Dubé, Louis J.
2018-02-01
We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework on a given degree distribution, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary state using the rewiring rate to explore the whole range of the time variation of the structure relative to that of the SIS process. This analysis is suitable for the characterization of the phase transition and leads to three main contributions: (1) We obtain a self-consistent expression for the absorbing-state threshold, able to capture both collective and hub activation. (2) We recover the predictions of a number of existing approaches as limiting cases of our analysis, providing thereby a unifying point of view for the SIS dynamics on random networks. (3) We obtain bounds for the critical exponents of a number of quantities in the stationary state. This allows us to reinterpret the concept of hub-dominated phase transition. Within our framework, it appears as a heterogeneous critical phenomenon: observables for different degree classes have a different scaling with the infection rate. This phenomenon is followed by the successive activation of the degree classes beyond the epidemic threshold.
-
Hyer, E. J.; Allen, D. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Warner, J. X.
2003-12-01
Trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires are a significant factor in atmospheric composition and its interannual variability. A number of recent observations of emissions plumes above individual fire events (Fromm and Servranckx, 2003; COBRA 2003; Lamarque et al., 2003; Wotawa and Trainer, 2000) suggest that vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes can be very different from fossil fuel emission plumes. Understanding and constraining the vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes and their injection into the atmosphere during fire events is critical for accurate modeling of atmospheric transport and chemistry. While excellent data have been collected in a handful of experiments on individual fire events, a systematic examination of the range of behavior observed in fire events has been hampered by the scarcity of vertical profiles of atmospheric composition. In this study, we used a high-resolution model of boreal forest fire emissions (Kasischke et al, in review) as input to the Goddard/UM CTM driven by the GEOS-3 DAS, operating at 2 by 2.5 degrees with 35 vertical levels. We modeled atmospheric injection and transport of CO emissions during the fire season of 2000 (May-September). We altered the parameters of the model to simulate a range of scenarios of plume injection, and compared the resulting output to the CO profiles from the MOPITT instrument. The results presented here pertain to the boreal forest, but our methods should be useful for atmospheric modelers hoping to more realistically model transport of emission plumes from biomass burning. References: COBRA2003: see http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~cobra/smoke_canada_030530.pdf Fromm, M. and R. Servranckx, 2003. "Stratospheric Injection of Forest Fire Emissions on August 4, 1998: A Satellite Image Analysis of the Causal Supercell Convection." Geophysical Research Abstracts 5:13118. Kasischke, E.S.; E.J. Hyer, N.H.F. French, A.I. Sukhinin, J.H. Hewson, B.J. Stocks, in review. "Carbon
-
Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfes in fires
Cozzani, V.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M. (Menso)
2009-01-01
The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in
-
Physical characteristics of shrub and conifer fuels for fire behavior models
Jonathan R. Gallacher; Thomas H. Fletcher; Victoria Lansinger; Sydney Hansen; Taylor Ellsworth; David R. Weise
2017-01-01
The physical properties and dimensions of foliage are necessary inputs for some fire spread models. Currently, almost no data exist on these plant characteristics to fill this need. In this report, we measured the physical properties and dimensions of the foliage from 10 live shrub and conifer fuels throughout a 1-year period. We developed models to predict relative...
-
Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu
2009-01-01
Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...
-
Marzaeva, S. I.; Galtseva, O. V.
2018-05-01
The forest fires spread in the pine forests have been numerically simulated using a three-dimensional mathematical model. The model was integrated with respect to the vertical coordinate because horizontal sizes of forest are much greater than the heights of trees. In this paper, the assignment and theoretical investigations of the problems of crown forest fires spread pass the firebreaks were carried out. In this context, a study ( mathematical modeling) of the conditions of forest fire spreading that would make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of the change in the temperature and component concentration fields with time, and determine as well as the limiting condition of fire propagation in forest with these fire breaks.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. E. Gettings
2005-01-01
Full Text Available Magnetic susceptibility was measured for 700 samples of drill core from thirteen drill holes in the porphyry copper-molybdenum deposit of the Stinkingwater mining district in the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming. The magnetic susceptibility measurements, chemical analyses, and alteration class provided a database for study of magnetic susceptibility in these altered rocks. The distribution of the magnetic susceptibilities for all samples is multi-modal, with overlapping peaked distributions for samples in the propylitic and phyllic alteration class, a tail of higher susceptibilities for potassic alteration, and an approximately uniform distribution over a narrow range at the highest susceptibilities for unaltered rocks. Samples from all alteration and mineralization classes show susceptibilities across a wide range of values. Samples with secondary (supergene alteration due to oxidation or enrichment show lower susceptibilities than primary (hypogene alteration rock. Observed magnetic susceptibility variations and the monolithological character of the host rock suggest that the variations are due to varying degrees of alteration of blocks of rock between fractures that conducted hydrothermal fluids. Alteration of rock from the fractures inward progressively reduces the bulk magnetic susceptibility of the rock. The model introduced in this paper consists of a simulation of the fracture pattern and a simulation of the alteration of the rock between fractures. A multifractal model generated from multiplicative cascades with unequal ratios produces distributions statistically similar to the observed distributions. The reduction in susceptibility in the altered rocks was modelled as a diffusion process operating on the fracture distribution support. The average magnetic susceptibility was then computed for each block. For the purpose of comparing the model results with observation, the simulated magnetic susceptibilities were then averaged over the same
-
Gettings, M.E.
2005-01-01
Magnetic susceptibility was measured for 700 samples of drill core from thirteen drill holes in the porphyry copper-molybdenum deposit of the Stinkingwater mining district in the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming. The magnetic susceptibility measurements, chemical analyses, and alteration class provided a database for study of magnetic susceptibility in these altered rocks. The distribution of the magnetic susceptibilities for all samples is multi-modal, with overlapping peaked distributions for samples in the propylitic and phyllic alteration class, a tail of higher susceptibilities for potassic alteration, and an approximately uniform distribution over a narrow range at the highest susceptibilities for unaltered rocks. Samples from all alteration and mineralization classes show susceptibilities across a wide range of values. Samples with secondary (supergene) alteration due to oxidation or enrichment show lower susceptibilities than primary (hypogene) alteration rock. Observed magnetic susceptibility variations and the monolithological character of the host rock suggest that the variations are due to varying degrees of alteration of blocks of rock between fractures that conducted hydrothermal fluids. Alteration of rock from the fractures inward progressively reduces the bulk magnetic susceptibility of the rock. The model introduced in this paper consists of a simulation of the fracture pattern and a simulation of the alteration of the rock between fractures. A multifractal model generated from multiplicative cascades with unequal ratios produces distributions statistically similar to the observed distributions. The reduction in susceptibility in the altered rocks was modelled as a diffusion process operating on the fracture distribution support. The average magnetic susceptibility was then computed for each block. For the purpose of comparing the model results with observation, the simulated magnetic susceptibilities were then averaged over the same interval as the
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William eLennon
2014-12-01
Full Text Available While the anatomy of the cerebellar microcircuit is well studied, how it implements cerebellar function is not understood. A number of models have been proposed to describe this mechanism but few emphasize the role of the vast network Purkinje cells (PKJs form with the molecular layer interneurons (MLIs – the stellate and basket cells. We propose a model of the MLI-PKJ network composed of simple spiking neurons incorporating the major anatomical and physiological features. In computer simulations, the model reproduces the irregular firing patterns observed in PKJs and MLIs in vitro and a shift toward faster, more regular firing patterns when inhibitory synaptic currents are blocked. In the model, the time between PKJ spikes is shown to be proportional to the amount of feedforward inhibition from an MLI on average. The two key elements of the model are: (1 spontaneously active PKJs and MLIs due to an endogenous depolarizing current, and (2 adherence to known anatomical connectivity along a parasagittal strip of cerebellar cortex. We propose this model to extend previous spiking network models of the cerebellum and for further computational investigation into the role of irregular firing and MLIs in cerebellar learning and function.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoschenko, V.I.; Kashparov, V.A.; Levchuk, S.E.; Glukhovskiy, A.S.; Khomutinin, Yu.V.; Protsak, V.P.; Lundin, S.M.; Tschiersch, J.
2006-01-01
To predict parameters of radionuclide resuspension, transport and deposition during forest and grassland fires, several model modules were developed and adapted. Experimental data of controlled burning of prepared experimental plots in the Chernobyl exclusion zone have been used to evaluate the prognostic power of the models. The predicted trajectories and elevations of the plume match with those visually observed during the fire experiments in the grassland and forest sites. Experimentally determined parameters could be successfully used for the calculation of the initial plume parameters which provide the tools for the description of various fire scenarios and enable prognostic calculations. In summary, the model predicts a release of some per mille from the radionuclide inventory of the fuel material by the grassland fires. During the forest fire, up to 4% of 137 Cs and 9 Sr and up to 1% of the Pu isotopes can be released from the forest litter according to the model calculations. However, these results depend on the parameters of the fire events. In general, the modeling results are in good accordance with the experimental data. Therefore, the considered models were successfully validated and can be recommended for the assessment of the resuspension and redistribution of radionuclides during grassland and forest fires in contaminated territories
-
Pradhan, Biswajeet; Lee, Saro; Buchroithner, Manfred
Landslides are the most common natural hazards in Malaysia. Preparation of landslide suscep-tibility maps is important for engineering geologists and geomorphologists. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. In this study, a new attempt is tried to produce landslide susceptibility map of a part of Cameron Valley of Malaysia. This paper develops an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based on a geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping. To ob-tain the neuro-fuzzy relations for producing the landslide susceptibility map, landslide locations were identified from interpretation of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite images, field surveys and historical inventory reports. Landslide conditioning factors such as slope, plan curvature, distance to drainage lines, soil texture, lithology, and distance to lineament were extracted from topographic, soil, and lineament maps. Landslide susceptible areas were analyzed by the ANFIS model and mapped using the conditioning factors. Furthermore, we applied various membership functions (MFs) and fuzzy relations to produce landslide suscep-tibility maps. The prediction performance of the susceptibility map is checked by considering actual landslides in the study area. Results show that, triangular, trapezoidal, and polynomial MFs were the best individual MFs for modelling landslide susceptibility maps (86
-
Model fire tests on polyphosphazene rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber foams
Widenor, W. M.
1978-01-01
A video tape record of model room fire tests was shown, comparing polyphosphazene (P-N) rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber closed-cell foams as interior finish thermal insulation under conditions directly translatable to an actual fire situation. Flashover did not occur with the P-N foam and only moderate amounts of low density smoke were formed, whereas with the PVC/nitrile foam, flashover occurred quickly and large volumes of high density smoke were emitted. The P-N foam was produced in a pilot plant under carefully controlled conditions. The PVC/nitrile foam was a commercial product. A major phase of the overall program involved fire tests on P-N open-cell foam cushioning.
-
Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Carlson, Jean M; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth S; Doyle, John C; Harrison, Sandy P; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Marston, J Brad; Moritz, Max A; Prentice, I Colin; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Swetnam, Thomas W; van der Werf, Guido R; Pyne, Stephen J
2009-04-24
Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.
-
Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;
2011-01-01
Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from
-
MODELING ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS OF POST-FIRE REVEGETATION IN THE GREAT BASIN
Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey E.; Nalle, Darek
2004-01-01
This study employs a Markov chain model of vegetation dynamics to examine the economic and ecological benefits of post-fire revegetation in the Great Basin sagebrush steppe. The analysis is important because synergies between wildland fire and invasive weeds in this ecosystem are likely to result in the loss of native biodiversity, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, reduced watershed stability and water quality, and increased costs and risk associated with firefi...
-
Deterministic analysis of mid scale outdoor fire
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vidmar, P.; Petelin, S.
2003-01-01
The idea behind the article is how to define fire behaviour. The work is based on an analytical study of fire origin, its development and spread. Mathematical fire model called FDS (Fire Dynamic Simulator) is used in the presented work. A CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) model using LES (Large Eddie Simulation) is used to calculate fire development and spread of combustion products in the environment. The fire source is located in the vicinity of the hazardous plant, power, chemical etc. The article presents the brief background of the FDS computer program and the initial and boundary conditions used in the mathematical model. Results discuss output data and check the validity of results. The work also presents some corrections of the physical model used, which influence the quality of results. The obtained results were discussed and compared with the Fire Safety Analysis report included in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Krsko nuclear power plant. (author)
-
Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.
2016-01-01
Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of
-
Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.
2017-04-01
Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.
-
Yue, Chao; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, Patricia; Harden, J. L.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.
2013-01-01
Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and
-
Lee, Jung-Hyun; Sameen, Maher Ibrahim; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Park, Hyuck-Jin
2018-02-01
This study evaluated the generalizability of five models to select a suitable approach for landslide susceptibility modeling in data-scarce environments. In total, 418 landslide inventories and 18 landslide conditioning factors were analyzed. Multicollinearity and factor optimization were investigated before data modeling, and two experiments were then conducted. In each experiment, five susceptibility maps were produced based on support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), weight-of-evidence (WoE), ridge regression (Rid_R), and robust regression (RR) models. The highest accuracy (AUC = 0.85) was achieved with the SVM model when either the full or limited landslide inventories were used. Furthermore, the RF and WoE models were severely affected when less landslide samples were used for training. The other models were affected slightly when the training samples were limited.
-
The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bruno Scarpa
2013-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle typical problems in data available to the companies, like the presence of franchises, which are treated as censored data.
-
Tranchard, Pauline; Samyn, Fabienne; Duquesne, Sophie; Estèbe, Bruno; Bourbigot, Serge
2017-04-28
Based on a phenomenological methodology, a three dimensional (3D) thermochemical model was developed to predict the temperature profile, the mass loss and the decomposition front of a carbon-reinforced epoxy composite laminate (T700/M21 composite) exposed to fire conditions. This 3D model takes into account the energy accumulation by the solid material, the anisotropic heat conduction, the thermal decomposition of the material, the gas mass flow into the composite, and the internal pressure. Thermophysical properties defined as temperature dependant properties were characterised using existing as well as innovative methodologies in order to use them as inputs into our physical model. The 3D thermochemical model accurately predicts the measured mass loss and observed decomposition front when the carbon fibre/epoxy composite is directly impacted by a propane flame. In short, the model shows its capability to predict the fire behaviour of a carbon fibre reinforced composite for fire safety engineering.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Long Shi
2015-10-01
Full Text Available A mathematical model, named FiresCone, was developed to simulate the pyrolysis and combustion processes of different types of combustible materials, which also took into account both gas and solid phases. In the present study, some non-charring and intumescent-protected polymer samples were investigated regarding their combustion behaviors in response to pre-determined external heat fluxes. The modeling results were validated against the experimental outcomes obtained from a cone calorimeter. The predicted mass loss rates of the samples were found to fit reasonably well with the experimental data collected under various levels of external irradiation. Both the experimental and modeling results showed that the peak mass loss rate of the non-charring polymer material occurred near the end of burning, whereas for the intumescent-protected polymer it happed shortly after the start of the experiment. “FiresCone” is expected to act as a practical tool for the investigation of fire behavior of combustible materials. It is also expected to model fire scenarios under complicated conditions.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pawlak, A., E-mail: pawlak@amu.edu.pl [Faculty of Physics, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 85, 61–614 Poznań (Poland); Gülpınar, G. [Department of Physics, Dokuz Eylül University, 35160 İzmir (Turkey); Erdem, R. [Department of Physics, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya (Turkey); Ağartıoğlu, M. [Institute of Science, Dokuz Eylül University, 35160 İzmir (Turkey)
2015-12-01
The expressions for the dipolar and quadrupolar susceptibilities are obtained within the mean-field approximation in the Blume–Emery–Griffiths model. Temperature as well as crystal field dependences of the susceptibilities are investigated for two different phase diagram topologies which take place for K/J=3 and K/J=5.0.Their behavior near the second and first order transition points as well as multi-critical points such as tricritical, triple and critical endpoint is presented. It is found that in addition to the jumps connected with the phase transitions there are broad peaks in the quadrupolar susceptibility. It is indicated that these broad peaks lie on a prolongation of the first-order line from a triple point to a critical point ending the line of first-order transitions between two distinct paramagnetic phases. It is argued that the broad peaks are a reminiscence of very strong quadrupolar fluctuations at the critical point. The results reveal the fact that near ferromagnetic–paramagnetic phase transitions the quadrupolar susceptibility generally shows a jump whereas near the phase transition between two distinct paramagnetic phases it is an edge-like. - Highlights: • MFA calculation of the quadrupolar and dipolar susceptibility in BEG model is given • The crystal-field variation of susceptibilities near the multi-critical points is examined • There are broad peaks in the quadrupolar susceptibility in the vicinity of CP • These maxima are remembrances of the very strong quadrupolar Fluctuations.
-
FEMME- post-Fire Emergency ManageMEnt tool.
Vieira, Diana; Serpa, Dalila; Rocha, João; Nunes, João; Keizer, Jacob
2017-04-01
Wildfires can have important impacts on hydrological and soil erosion processes in forest catchments, due to the destruction of vegetation cover and changes to soil properties. The involved processes however, are non-linear and not fully understood. This has severely limited the understanding on the impacts of wildfires, and, as a consequence, current runoff-erosion models are poorly adapted to recently burned forest conditions. Furthermore, while post-fire forestry operations and, to a lesser extent, post-fire soil conservation measures are commonly applied, their hydrological and erosion impacts continue poorly known, hampering decision-making by land owners and managers. Past post-wildfire research in Portugal has involved simple adaptations of plot-scale runoff-erosion models to post-fire conditions. This follow-up study focusses on model adaptation to selected post-fire soil conservation measures. To this end, full stock is taken of various datasets collected by several (past and ongoing research projects. The selected model is the Morgan-Morgan-Finney model (MMF, Morgan,2001), which already proved its suitability for post-fire conditions in Portugal (Vieira et al, 2010, 2014) as well as NW-Spain ( Fernández et al., 2010). The present results concerned runoff and erosion different burn severities and various post-fire mitigation treatments (mulch, hydromulch, needle cast, barriers), focussing on the plot and field scale. The results for both the first and the second year following the wildfire revealed good model efficiency, not only for burned and untreated conditions but also for burned and treated conditions. These results thus reinforced earlier findings that MMF is a suitable model for the envisaged post-fire soil erosion assessment tool, coined "FEMME". The data used for post-fire soil erosion calibration with the MMF already allows the delineation of the post-fire management FEMME tool. Nevertheless, further model assessment will address additional
-
Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Christopher, S. A.; Prins, E. M.; Gasso, S.; Reid, E.; Theisen, M.; Schmidt, C. C.; Hunter, J.; Eck, T.
2002-05-01
The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') project is a joint Navy, NOAA, NASA and university project to integrate satellite products with numerical aerosol models to produce a real time fire and emissions inventory. At the center of the program is the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF ABBA) which provides real-time fire products and the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System to model smoke transport. In this presentation we give a brief overview of the system and methods, but emphasize new estimations of smoke coverage and emission fluxes from the South American continent. Temporal and smoke patterns compare reasonably well with AERONET and MODIS aerosol optical depth products for the 2000 and 2001 fire seasons. Fluxes are computed by relating NAAPS output fields and MODIS optical depth maps with modeled wind fields. Smoke emissions and transport fluxes out of the continent can then be estimated by perturbing the modeled emissions to gain agreement with the satellite and wind products. Regional smoke emissions are also presented for grass and forest burning.
-
Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling
David L. Peterson; Daniel L. Schmoldt
2000-01-01
In 1996, a team of North American fire scientists and resource managers convened to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems and to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations - elicited with the Analytic Hierarchy Process - include numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and...
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Diaz-Avalos, Carlos
Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable fo...... dataset consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent....
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Diaz-Avalos, Carlos
2010-01-01
Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable fo...... data set consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent....
-
Assessing the outstanding 2003 fire events in Portugal with a Regional Climate Model
Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia; Camara, Carlos; Montávez, Juan Pedro
2013-04-01
The heatwave that struck western Iberia in the early days of August 2003 was characterized by record high values of both maximum (47.3°C) and minimum (30.6°c) temperatures in Portugal, associated with extremely low humidity levels and relatively intense wind speed (Trigo et al., 2006). These conditions triggered the most devastating sequence of large fires ever registered in Portugal. The estimated total burnt area was about 450.000 ha, including 280.000 ha of forest (Pereira et al., 2011). The outstanding total burnt area value corresponds to roughly 5% of the Portuguese territory, and represents approximately twice the previous maximum observed in 1998 (~220.000 ha), and about four times the long-term average observed between 1980 and 2004. Here we characterise this unusual episode using meteorological fields obtained from both observations and a regional climate model. In this work we use the longest (49-years) high-resolution regional climate simulation available driven by reanalysis data spanning from 1959 to 2007 and covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. This long run was obtained using the MM5 model with a spatial resolution of 10 km. Using this high spatial and temporal resolution we have computed the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System to produce hourly values of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behaviour (van Wagner, 1987). We show the temporal evolution of high resolution patterns for several fire related variables during the most important days for triggering new fires (the first week of August 2003). Besides the absolute value of Tmax, Tmin, wind (speed and direction), relative humidity and FWI we also evaluate the corresponding anomalies of these fields, obtained after removing the long-term smoothed daily climatology. Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. (2011) "The History and Characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database
-
Pastor, E.; Tarragó, D.; Planas, E.
2012-04-01
Wildfire theoretical modeling endeavors predicting fire behavior characteristics, such as the rate of spread, the flames geometry and the energy released by the fire front by applying the physics and the chemistry laws that govern fire phenomena. Its ultimate aim is to help fire managers to improve fire prevention and suppression and hence reducing damage to population and protecting ecosystems. WFDS is a 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of a fire-driven flow. It is particularly appropriate for predicting the fire behaviour burning through the wildland-urban interface, since it is able to predict the fire behaviour in the intermix of vegetative and structural fuels that comprise the wildland urban interface. This model is not suitable for operational fire management yet due to computational costs constrains, but given the fact that it is open-source and that it has a detailed description of the fuels and of the combustion and heat transfer mechanisms it is currently a suitable system for research purposes. In this paper we present the most important characteristics of the WFDS simulation tool in terms of the models implemented, the input information required and the outputs that the simulator gives useful for understanding fire phenomena. We briefly discuss its advantages and opportunities through some simulation exercises of Mediterranean ecosystems.
-
Fidelity susceptibility and long-range correlation in the Kitaev honeycomb model
Yang, Shuo; Gu, Shi-Jian; Sun, Chang-Pu; Lin, Hai-Qing
2008-07-01
We study exactly both the ground-state fidelity susceptibility and bond-bond correlation function in the Kitaev honeycomb model. Our results show that the fidelity susceptibility can be used to identify the topological phase transition from a gapped A phase with Abelian anyon excitations to a gapless B phase with non-Abelian anyon excitations. We also find that the bond-bond correlation function decays exponentially in the gapped phase, but algebraically in the gapless phase. For the former case, the correlation length is found to be 1/ξ=2sinh-1[2Jz-1/(1-Jz)] , which diverges around the critical point Jz=(1/2)+ .
-
Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald
2012-01-01
Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...
-
Verola Mataveli, Guilherme Augusto; Siqueira Silva, Maria Elisa; Pereira, Gabriel; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle; Shinji Kawakubo, Fernando; Bertani, Gabriel; Cezar Costa, Julio; de Cássia Ramos, Raquel; Valéria da Silva, Viviane
2018-01-01
In the Brazilian savannas (Cerrado biome) fires are natural and a tool for shifting land use; therefore, temporal and spatial patterns result from the interaction of climate, vegetation condition and human activities. Moreover, orbital sensors are the most effective approach to establish patterns in the biome. We aimed to characterize fire, precipitation and vegetation condition regimes and to establish spatial patterns of fire occurrence and their correlation with precipitation and vegetation condition in the Cerrado. The Cerrado was first and second biome for the occurrence of burned areas (BA) and hotspots, respectively. Occurrences are higher during the dry season and in the savanna land use. Hotspots and BA tend to decrease, and concentrate in the north, but more intense hotspots are not necessarily located where concentration is higher. Spatial analysis showed that averaged and summed values can hide patterns, such as for precipitation, which has the lowest average in August, but minimum precipitation in August was found in 7 % of the Cerrado. Usually, there is a 2-3-month lag between minimum precipitation and maximum hotspots and BA, while minimum VCI and maximum hotspots and BA occur in the same month. Hotspots and BA are better correlated with VCI than precipitation, qualifying VCI as an indicator of the susceptibility of vegetation to ignition.
-
Rose, Eli T.; Simons, Theodore R.
2016-01-01
Fire suppression in southern Appalachian pine–oak forests during the past century dramatically altered the bird community. Fire return intervals decreased, resulting in local extirpation or population declines of many bird species adapted to post-fire plant communities. Within Great Smoky Mountains National Park, declines have been strongest for birds inhabiting xeric pine–oak forests that depend on frequent fire. The buildup of fuels after decades of fire suppression led to changes in the 1996 Great Smoky Mountains Fire Management Plan. Although fire return intervals remain well below historic levels, management changes have helped increase the amount of fire within the park over the past 20 years, providing an opportunity to study patterns of fire severity, time since burn, and bird occurrence. We combined avian point counts in burned and unburned areas with remote sensing indices of fire severity to infer temporal changes in bird occurrence for up to 28 years following fire. Using hierarchical linear models that account for the possibility of a species presence at a site when no individuals are detected, we developed occurrence models for 24 species: 13 occurred more frequently in burned areas, 2 occurred less frequently, and 9 showed no significant difference between burned and unburned areas. Within burned areas, the top models for each species included fire severity, time since burn, or both, suggesting that fire influenced patterns of species occurrence for all 24 species. Our findings suggest that no single fire management strategy will suit all species. To capture peak occupancy for the entire bird community within xeric pine–oak forests, at least 3 fire regimes may be necessary; one applying frequent low severity fire, another using infrequent low severity fire, and a third using infrequently applied high severity fire.
-
Pramatana, F.; Prasetyo, L. B.; Rushayati, S. B.
2017-10-01
Bali starling is an endemic and endangered species which tend to decrease of its population in the wild. West Bali National Park (WBNP) is the only habitat of bali starling, however it is threatened nowadays by forest fire. Understanding the sensitivity of habitat to forest & land fire is urgently needed. Geographic Information System (GIS) can be used for mapping the vulnerability of forest fire. This study aims to analyze the contributed factor of forest fire, to develop vulnerability level map of forest fire in WBNP, to estimate habitat vulnerability of bali starling. The variable for mapping forest fire in WBNP were road distance, village distance, land cover, NDVI, NDMI, surface temperature, and slope. Forest fire map in WBNP was created by scoring from each variable, and classified into four classes of forest fire vulnerability which are very low (9 821 ha), low (5 015.718 ha), middle (6 778.656 ha), and high (2 126.006 ha). Bali starling existence in the middle and high vulnerability forest fire class in WBNP, consequently the population and habitat of bali starling is a very vulnerable. Management of population and habitat of bali starling in WBNP must be implemented focus on forest fire impact.
-
Fire severity and ecosytem responses following crown fires in California shrublands.
Keeley, Jon E; Brennan, Teresa; Pfaff, Anne H
2008-09-01
Chaparral shrublands burn in large high-intensity crown fires. Managers interested in how these wildfires affect ecosystem processes generally rely on surrogate measures of fire intensity known as fire severity metrics. In shrublands burned in the autumn of 2003, a study of 250 sites investigated factors determining fire severity and ecosystem responses. Using structural equation modeling we show that stand age, prefire shrub density, and the shortest interval of the prior fire history had significant direct effects on fire severity, explaining > 50% of the variation in severity. Fire severity per se is of interest to resource managers primarily because it is presumed to be an indicator of important ecosystem processes such as vegetative regeneration, community recovery, and erosion. Fire severity contributed relatively little to explaining patterns of regeneration after fire. Two generalizations can be drawn: fire severity effects are mostly shortlived, i.e., by the second year they are greatly diminished, and fire severity may have opposite effects on different functional types. Species richness exhibited a negative relationship to fire severity in the first year, but fire severity impacts were substantially less in the second postfire year and varied by functional type. Much of this relationship was due to alien plants that are sensitive to high fire severity; at all scales from 1 to 1000 m2, the percentage of alien species in the postfire flora declined with increased fire severity. Other aspects of disturbance history are also important determinants of alien cover and richness as both increased with the number of times the site had burned and decreased with time since last fire. A substantial number of studies have shown that remote-sensing indices are correlated with field measurements of fire severity. Across our sites, absolute differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) was strongly correlated with field measures of fire severity and with fire history at a
-
Schlögel, R.; Marchesini, I.; Alvioli, M.; Reichenbach, P.; Rossi, M.; Malet, J.-P.
2018-01-01
We perform landslide susceptibility zonation with slope units using three digital elevation models (DEMs) of varying spatial resolution of the Ubaye Valley (South French Alps). In so doing, we applied a recently developed algorithm automating slope unit delineation, given a number of parameters, in order to optimize simultaneously the partitioning of the terrain and the performance of a logistic regression susceptibility model. The method allowed us to obtain optimal slope units for each available DEM spatial resolution. For each resolution, we studied the susceptibility model performance by analyzing in detail the relevance of the conditioning variables. The analysis is based on landslide morphology data, considering either the whole landslide or only the source area outline as inputs. The procedure allowed us to select the most useful information, in terms of DEM spatial resolution, thematic variables and landslide inventory, in order to obtain the most reliable slope unit-based landslide susceptibility assessment.
-
Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model
Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita
2018-05-01
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high
-
Saldarriaga Vargas, Clarita
When there are diseases affecting large populations where the social, economic and cultural diversity is significant within the same region, the biological parameters that determine the behavior of the dispersion disease analysis are affected by the selection of different individuals. Therefore and because of the variety and magnitude of the communities at risk of contracting dengue disease around all over the world, suggest defining differentiated populations with individual contributions in the results of the dispersion dengue disease analysis. In this paper those conditions were taken in account when several epidemiologic models were analyzed. Initially a stability analysis was done for a SEIR mathematical model of Dengue disease without differential susceptibility. Both free disease and endemic equilibrium states were found in terms of the basic reproduction number and were defined in the Theorem (3.1). Then a DSEIR model was solved when a new susceptible group was introduced to consider the effects of important biological parameters of non-homogeneous populations in the spreading analysis. The results were compiled in the Theorem (3.2). Finally Theorems (3.3) and (3.4) resumed the basic reproduction numbers for three and n different susceptible groups respectively, giving an idea of how differential susceptibility affects the equilibrium states. The computations were done using an algorithmic method implemented in Maple 11, a general-purpose computer algebra system.
-
Development of the IPRO-zone for fire PSA and its applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, D. I.; Han, S. H.
2012-01-01
A PSA analyst has been manually determining fire-induced component failure modes and modeling them into the PSA logics. These can be difficult and time-consuming tasks as they need much information and many events are to be modeled. KAERI has been developing the IPRO-ZONE (interface program for constructing zone effect table) to facilitate fire PSA works for identifying and modeling fire-induced component failure modes, and to construct a one top fire event PSA model. With the output of the IPRO-ZONE, the AIMS-PSA, and internal event one top PSA model, one top fire events PSA model is automatically constructed. The outputs of the IPRO-ZONE include information on fire zones/fire scenarios, fire propagation areas, equipment failure modes affected by a fire, internal PSA basic events corresponding to fire-induced equipment failure modes, and fire events to be modeled. This paper introduces the IPRO-ZONE, and its application results to fire PSA of Ulchin Unit 3 and SMART(System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor). (authors)
-
Development of the IPRO-zone for fire PSA and its applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, D. I.; Han, S. H. [Integrated Safety Assessment Div., Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst. KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero (150 Deokjin-Dong), Yuseong-Gu, Daejon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)
2012-07-01
A PSA analyst has been manually determining fire-induced component failure modes and modeling them into the PSA logics. These can be difficult and time-consuming tasks as they need much information and many events are to be modeled. KAERI has been developing the IPRO-ZONE (interface program for constructing zone effect table) to facilitate fire PSA works for identifying and modeling fire-induced component failure modes, and to construct a one top fire event PSA model. With the output of the IPRO-ZONE, the AIMS-PSA, and internal event one top PSA model, one top fire events PSA model is automatically constructed. The outputs of the IPRO-ZONE include information on fire zones/fire scenarios, fire propagation areas, equipment failure modes affected by a fire, internal PSA basic events corresponding to fire-induced equipment failure modes, and fire events to be modeled. This paper introduces the IPRO-ZONE, and its application results to fire PSA of Ulchin Unit 3 and SMART(System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor). (authors)
-
A Framework for Assessment of Intentional Fires
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iraj Mohammadfam
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Background & Objectives : It is not possible to live without using fire. However, fire could destruct human properties in a short time. One of the most important types of fire is intentional fire. This type of fire has become a great problem for insurance companies, fire departments, industries, government and business in the recent years. This study aimed to provide a framework for risk assessment of intentional fires . Methods: In the present study, risk assessment and management model for protecting critical properties and security vulnerability assessment model were used to develop a comprehensive framework for risk assessment of intentional fires. The framework was examined in an automotive industry . Results : The designed framework contained five steps as 1 asset inventory and prioritizing them according to their importance, 2 invasion assessment, 3 vulnerability assessment, 4 risk assessment and design and 5 implementation and evaluating the effectiveness of corrective/preventive actions. Thirty different scenarios for intentional fires were identified by implementing the designed framework in an automotive company, and then the associated risk of each scenario was quantitatively determined. Conclusion : Compared to seven models, the proposed framework represents its comprehension. Development of safety and security standards and a central security information bank to reduce security risks, including the risk of intentional fires is recommended .
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lin Min; Chen Tianlun
2005-01-01
A lattice model for a set of pulse-coupled integrate-and-fire neurons with small world structure is introduced. We find that our model displays the power-law behavior accompanied with the large-scale synchronized activities among the units. And the different connectivity topologies lead to different behaviors in models of integrate-and-fire neurons.
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Clausen, Sønnik
2012-01-01
and availability. To better understand grate-firing of biomass and to establish a reliable but relatively simple Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling methodology for industrial applications, biomass combustion in a number of different grate boilers has been measured and modeled. As one of the case studies......, modeling effort on an 88 MW grate-fired boiler burning wheat straw is presented in this paper. Different modeling issues and their expected impacts on CFD analysis of the kind of grate boilers are discussed. The modeling results are compared with in-flame measurements in the 88 MW boiler, which shows...... measures will be tested in a modern 500 kW grate boiler rig...
-
Decision algorithms in fire detection systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ristić Jovan D.
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Analogue (and addressable fire detection systems enables a new quality in improving sensitivity to real fires and reducing susceptibility to nuisance alarm sources. Different decision algorithms types were developed with intention to improve sensitivity and reduce false alarm occurrence. At the beginning, it was free alarm level adjustment based on preset level. Majority of multi-criteria decision work was based on multi-sensor (multi-signature decision algorithms - using different type of sensors on the same location or, rather, using different aspects (level and rise of one sensor measured value. Our idea is to improve sensitivity and reduce false alarm occurrence by forming groups of sensors that work in similar conditions (same world side in the building, same or similar technology or working time. Original multi-criteria decision algorithms based on level, rise and difference of level and rise from group average are discussed in this paper.
-
Lightning-caused fires in Central Spain
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nieto Solana, Hector; Aguado, Inmaculada; García, Mariano
2012-01-01
Lightning-caused fire occurrence has been modelled for two different Spanish regions, Madrid andAragon, based on meteorological, terrain, and vegetation variables. The model was built on two very contrasting regions, one presenting low number of lightning-caused fires whereas the other presented...... in the model, where an increasing number of thunderstorms leads to a higher probability of occurrence. Validation was assessed through the Receiver Operator Characteristic, showing a good agreement between the modelled probabilities and the reported lightning-caused fires, with an Area Under the Curve around 0...
-
Palomo-Couoh, Jovanny Gaspar; Aguilar-Caballero, Armando Jacinto; Torres-Acosta, Juan Felipe de Jesús; Magaña-Monforte, Juan Gabriel
2016-12-01
This study evaluated four models based on the number of eggs per gram of faeces (EPG) to segregate Pelibuey or Katahdin ewes during the lactation period into resistant or susceptible to gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) in tropical Mexico. Nine hundred and thirty EPG counts of Pelibuey ewes and 710 of Katahdin ewes were obtained during 10 weeks of lactation. Ewes were segregated into resistant, intermediate and susceptible, using their individual EPG every week. Then, data of every ewe was used to provide a reference classification, which included all the EPG values of each animal. Then, four models were evaluated against such reference. Model 1 was based on the 10-week mean EPG count ± 2 SE. Models 2, 3 and 4 were based on the mean EPG count of 10, 5 and 2 weeks of lactation. The cutoff points for the segregation of ewe in those three models were the quartiles ≤Q1 (low elimination) and ≥Q3 (high elimination). In all the models evaluated, the ewes classified as resistant had lower EPG than intermediates and susceptible (P ewes classified as susceptible had higher EPG than intermediate and resistant (P 70 %). Model 3 tended to show higher sensitivity and specificity with the reference data, but no difference was found with other models. The present study showed that the phenotypic marker EPG might serve to identify and segregate populations of adult ewes during the lactation period. All models used served to segregate Pelibuey and Katahdin ewes into resistant, intermediate and susceptible. The model 3 (mean of 5 weeks) could be used because it required less sampling effort without losing sensitivity or specificity in the segregation of animals. However, model 2 (mean of 2 weeks) was less labour-intensive.
-
Metal fires and their implications for advanced reactors. Part 3: Experimental and modeling results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nowlen, Steven Patrick; Figueroa, Victor G.; Olivier, Tara Jean; Hewson, John C.; Blanchat, Thomas K.
2010-01-01
This report details the primary results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project (LDRD 08-0857) Metal Fires and Their Implications for Advance Reactors. Advanced reactors may employ liquid metal coolants, typically sodium, because of their many desirable qualities. This project addressed some of the significant challenges associated with the use of liquid metal coolants, primary among these being the extremely rapid oxidation (combustion) that occurs at the high operating temperatures in reactors. The project has identified a number of areas for which gaps existed in knowledge pertinent to reactor safety analyses. Experimental and analysis capabilities were developed in these areas to varying degrees. In conjunction with team participation in a DOE gap analysis panel, focus was on the oxidation of spilled sodium on thermally massive surfaces. These are spills onto surfaces that substantially cool the sodium during the oxidation process, and they are relevant because standard risk mitigation procedures seek to move spill environments into this regime through rapid draining of spilled sodium. While the spilled sodium is not quenched, the burning mode is different in that there is a transition to a smoldering mode that has not been comprehensively described previously. Prior work has described spilled sodium as a pool fire, but there is a crucial, experimentally-observed transition to a smoldering mode of oxidation. A series of experimental measurements have comprehensively described the thermal evolution of this type of sodium fire for the first time. A new physics-based model has been developed that also predicts the thermal evolution of this type of sodium fire for the first time. The model introduces smoldering oxidation through porous oxide layers to go beyond traditional pool fire analyses that have been carried out previously in order to predict experimentally observed trends. Combined, these developments add significantly to the safety
-
Martins, V; Miranda, A I; Carvalho, A; Schaap, M; Borrego, C; Sá, E
2012-01-01
The main purpose of this work is to estimate the impact of forest fires on air pollution applying the LOTOS-EUROS air quality modeling system in Portugal for three consecutive years, 2003-2005. Forest fire emissions have been included in the modeling system through the development of a numerical module, which takes into account the most suitable parameters for Portuguese forest fire characteristics and the burnt area by large forest fires. To better evaluate the influence of forest fires on air quality the LOTOS-EUROS system has been applied with and without forest fire emissions. Hourly concentration results have been compared to measure data at several monitoring locations with better modeling quality parameters when forest fire emissions were considered. Moreover, hourly estimates, with and without fire emissions, can reach differences in the order of 20%, showing the importance and the influence of this type of emissions on air quality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
CCDP evaluation of the fire areas of KSNP using CFAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon
2005-01-01
During the past decade, the nuclear power industry has been moving away from prescriptive rules and practices toward risk-informed and performance-based engineering analysis to support the decision making for plant fire protection programs. For example, the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) prepared NFPA 805, Performance-Based Standard for Fire Protection for Light Water Reactor Electric Generating Plants 2001 Edition. One crucial element in supporting the risk-informed fire protection is availability of simple and reliable methods and tools for evaluating the likelihood and consequences of fire scenarios. These tools directly benefit risk-informed and performance-based fire protection and application of risk information to resolve fire protection issues. Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to apply the results for the fire modeling to the fire PSA model to develop the more realistic model. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST , to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will be capable of evaluating the consequences of the fire scenario, of reducing the the uncertainty, and to develop a more realistic model
-
A MODEL OF THE INFLUENCES OF A FOREST FIRE ON ITS NEIGHBORHOODS AND RELATED RISK MANAGEMENT ASPECTS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Valentin POSEA
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract. The aim of the present paper is to produce a model for the propagation of a forest fire analyzing the influences that the fire zone has on its neighborhoods. The model is aMoore cellular automaton type. It depends on six parameters: the medium slope of the elementary cell, the layer type, and the burning time of the fuel, the fuel type, the wind direction and speed. In order to study the influences of various parameter configurations on the system of vicinities of a fire cell we construct some special directional correlation functions. An application is elaborated based on real data.
-
Identifying the location of fire refuges in wet forest ecosystems.
Berry, Laurence E; Driscoll, Don A; Stein, John A; Blanchard, Wade; Banks, Sam C; Bradstock, Ross A; Lindenmayer, David B
2015-12-01
The increasing frequency of large, high-severity fires threatens the survival of old-growth specialist fauna in fire-prone forests. Within topographically diverse montane forests, areas that experience less severe or fewer fires compared with those prevailing in the landscape may present unique resource opportunities enabling old-growth specialist fauna to survive. Statistical landscape models that identify the extent and distribution of potential fire refuges may assist land managers to incorporate these areas into relevant biodiversity conservation strategies. We used a case study in an Australian wet montane forest to establish how predictive fire simulation models can be interpreted as management tools to identify potential fire refuges. We examined the relationship between the probability of fire refuge occurrence as predicted by an existing fire refuge model and fire severity experienced during a large wildfire. We also examined the extent to which local fire severity was influenced by fire severity in the surrounding landscape. We used a combination of statistical approaches, including generalized linear modeling, variogram analysis, and receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve analysis (ROC AUC). We found that the amount of unburned habitat and the factors influencing the retention and location of fire refuges varied with fire conditions. Under extreme fire conditions, the distribution of fire refuges was limited to only extremely sheltered, fire-resistant regions of the landscape. During extreme fire conditions, fire severity patterns were largely determined by stochastic factors that could not be predicted by the model. When fire conditions were moderate, physical landscape properties appeared to mediate fire severity distribution. Our study demonstrates that land managers can employ predictive landscape fire models to identify the broader climatic and spatial domain within which fire refuges are likely to be present. It is essential
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaercher, M.
2000-01-01
Modifications are being carried out in all French nuclear power plants to improve fire safety. These modifications are based on a three level defense in depth concept: fire preventing, fire containing and fire controlling. Fire containing requires many modifications such as protection of cable races and assessment of fire propagation which both need R and D development. On one hand, cable wraps made with mineral wool were tested in all configurations including effect of aging, overheating and fire and qualified for the use as protection from common failure modes. On the other hand, cables races in scale one were subject to gas burner or solvent pool fire to simulate ignition and fire propagation between trays and flash over situations. These tests have been performed under several typical lay out conditions. The results of the tests can be used as input data in computer modelling for validation of fire protection measures. (orig.) [de
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hofer, E.; Roewekamp, M.; Tuerschmann, M.
2003-07-01
In the frame of the research project RS 1112 'Development of Methods for a Recent Probabilistic Safety Analysis, Particularly Level 2' funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi), advanced methods, in particular for performing as far as possible realistic plant specific fire risk analyses (fire PSA), should be developed. The present Technical Report gives an overview on the methodologies developed in this context for assessing the fire hazard. In the context of developing advanced methodologies for fire PSA, a probabilistic dynamics analysis with a fire simulation code including an uncertainty and sensitivity study has been performed for an exemplary scenario of a cable fire induced by an electric cabinet inside the containment of a modern Konvoi type German nuclear power plant taking into consideration the effects of fire detection and fire extinguishing means. With the present study, it was possible for the first time to determine the probabilities of specified fire effects from a class of fire events by means of probabilistic dynamics supplemented by uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The analysis applies a deterministic dynamics model, consisting of a dynamic fire simulation code and a model of countermeasures, considering effects of the stochastics (so-called aleatory uncertainties) as well as uncertainties in the state of knowledge (so-called epistemic uncertainties). By this means, probability assessments including uncertainties are provided to be used within the PSA. (orig.) [de
-
Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adrián Regos
Full Text Available Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain, we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050. An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire
-
Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests.
Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís
2014-01-01
Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be
-
COMPBRN III: a computer code for modeling compartment fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ho, V.; Siu, N.; Apostolakis, G.; Flanagan, G.F.
1986-07-01
The computer code COMPBRN III deterministically models the behavior of compartment fires. This code is an improvement of the original COMPBRN codes. It employs a different air entrainment model and numerical scheme to estimate properties of the ceiling hot gas layer model. Moreover, COMPBRN III incorporates a number of improvements in shape factor calculations and error checking, which distinguish it from the COMPBRN II code. This report presents the ceiling hot gas layer model employed by COMPBRN III as well as several other modifications. Information necessary to run COMPBRN III, including descriptions of required input and resulting output, are also presented. Simulation of experiments and a sample problem are included to demonstrate the usage of the code. 37 figs., 46 refs
-
Nunes, João Pedro; Naranjo Quintanilla, Paula; Santos, Juliana; Serpa, Dalila; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Rocha, João; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Keesstra, Saskia
2017-04-01
Mediterranean landscapes have experienced extensive abandonment and reforestation in recent decades, which should have improved the provision of hydrological services, such as flood mitigation, soil erosion protection and water quality regulation. However, these forests are fire-prone, and the post-fire increase in runoff, erosion and sediment exports could negatively affect service provision. This issue was assessed using the SWAT model for a small mountain agroforestry catchment, which was monitored between 2010 and 2014 and where some eucalypt stands burned in 2011 and were subsequently plowed for replanting. The model was calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment yield and erosion in agricultural fields and the burnt hillslopes, showing that it can be adapted for post-fire simulation. It was then used to perform a decadal assessment of surface runoff, erosion, and sediment exports between 2004 and 2014. Results show that the fire did not noticeably affect flood mitigation but that it increased erosion by 3 orders of magnitude, which subsequently increased sediment yield. Erosion in the burnt forest during this decade was one order of magnitude above that in agricultural fields. SWAT was also used to assess different fire and land-use scenarios during the same period. Results indicate that the impacts of fire were lower without post-fire soil management, and when the fire occurred in pine forests (i.e. before the 1990s) or in shrublands (i.e. before afforestation in the 1930s). These impacts were robust to changes in post-fire weather conditions and to a lower fire frequency (20-year intervals). The results suggest that, in the long term, fire-prone forests might not provide the anticipated soil protection and water quality regulation services in wet Mediterranean regions.
-
Fire mosaics and reptile conservation in a fire-prone region.
Nimmo, D G; Kelly, L T; Spence-Bailey, L M; Watson, S J; Taylor, R S; Clarke, M F; Bennett, A F
2013-04-01
Fire influences the distribution of fauna in terrestrial biomes throughout the world. Use of fire to achieve a mosaic of vegetation in different stages of succession after burning (i.e., patch-mosaic burning) is a dominant conservation practice in many regions. Despite this, knowledge of how the spatial attributes of vegetation mosaics created by fire affect fauna is extremely scarce, and it is unclear what kind of mosaic land managers should aim to achieve. We selected 28 landscapes (each 12.6 km(2) ) that varied in the spatial extent and diversity of vegetation succession after fire in a 104,000 km(2) area in the semiarid region of southeastern Australia. We surveyed for reptiles at 280 sites nested within the 28 landscapes. The landscape-level occurrence of 9 of the 22 species modeled was associated with the spatial extent of vegetation age classes created by fire. Biogeographic context and the extent of a vegetation type influenced 7 and 4 species, respectively. No species were associated with the diversity of vegetation ages within a landscape. Negative relations between reptile occurrence and both extent of recently burned vegetation (≤10 years postfire, n = 6) and long unburned vegetation (>35 years postfire, n = 4) suggested that a coarse-grained mosaic of areas (e.g. >1000 ha) of midsuccessional vegetation (11-35 years postfire) may support the fire-sensitive reptile species we modeled. This age class coincides with a peak in spinifex cover, a keystone structure for reptiles in semiarid and arid Australia. Maintaining over the long term a coarse-grained mosaic of large areas of midsuccessional vegetation in mallee ecosystems will need to be balanced against the short-term negative effects of large fires on many reptile species and a documented preference by species from other taxonomic groups, particularly birds, for older vegetation. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.
-
Grutters, Michiel M P; Dogger, Judith; Hendrikse, Jeanet N
2012-09-01
Fire debris evidence is collected and stored in a wide range of containers, including various polymer bags. Four different polymer bags have been investigated, including the NYLON, DUO, ALU, and AMPAC bags. The latter is the successor of the Kapak Fire DebrisPAK™. Microscopy and infrared spectroscopy were used to elucidate the composition of the bags. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry was used to investigate performance parameters such as background volatiles, leak rate, cross-contamination, recovery, and sorption. The NYLON bag was susceptible for leakage and cross-contamination and showed decreased recoveries. The DUO and ALU bags showed some background volatiles, sorption, and poor recoveries. The AMPAC bag performed excellent: low background, no leakage or cross-contamination, good recoveries, and only traces of sorption. Heat sealing proved to be the best method of closure. Preliminary studies on AMPAC bags showed that polyethylene clamps are easy to use on-site and preserve ignitable liquids adequately for a limited period of time. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
-
Characterization of the Fire Regime and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest
Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.
2016-12-01
The Upper Guinean forest (UGF), encompassing the tropical regions of West Africa, is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and a critically important socio-economic and ecological resource for the region. However, the UGF is one of the most human-disturbed tropical forest ecosystems with the only remaining large patches of original forests distributed in protected areas, which are embedded in a hotspot of climate stress & land use pressures, increasing their vulnerability to fire. We hypothesized that human impacts and climate interact to drive spatial and temporal variability in fire, with fire exhibiting distinctive seasonality and sensitivity to drought in areas characterized by different population densities, agricultural practices, vegetation types, and levels of forest degradation. We used the MODIS active fire product to identify and characterize fire activity in the major ecoregions of the UGF. We used TRMM rainfall data to measure climatic variability and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We employed time series modeling to identify the influences of drought indices and other antecedent climatic indicators on temporal patterns of active fire occurrence. We used a variety of modeling approaches to assess the influences of human activities and land cover variables on the spatial pattern of fire activity. Our results showed that temporal patterns of fire activity in the UGF were related to precipitation, but these relationships were spatially heterogeneous. The pattern of fire seasonality varied geographically, reflecting both climatological patterns and agricultural practices. The spatial pattern of fire activity was strongly associated with vegetation gradients and anthropogenic activities occurring at fine spatial scales. The Guinean forest-savanna mosaic ecoregion had the most fires. This study contributes to our understanding of UGF fire regime and the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kockum, Anton Frisk; Johansson, Göran; Sandberg, Martin; Vissers, Michael R; Gao, Jiansong; Pappas, David P
2013-01-01
We present measurements and modelling of the susceptibility of a 2D microstrip cavity coupled to a driven transmon qubit. We are able to fit the response of the cavity to a weak probe signal with high accuracy in the strong coupling, low detuning, i.e., non-dispersive, limit over a wide bandwidth. The observed spectrum is rich in multi-photon processes for the doubly dressed transmon. These features are well explained by including the higher transmon levels in the driven Jaynes–Cummings model and solving the full master equation to calculate the susceptibility of the cavity. (paper)
-
M.B. Dickinson; J.C. Norris; A.S. Bova; R.L. Kremens; V. Young; M.J. Lacki
2010-01-01
Faunal injury and mortality in wildland fires is a concern for wildlife and fire management although little work has been done on the mechanisms by which exposures cause their effects. In this paper, we use an integral plume model, field measurements, and models of carbon monoxide and heat effects to explore risk to tree-roosting bats during prescribed fires in mixed-...