WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling fire susceptibility

  1. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  2. Fire Models and Design Fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Annemarie

    The aim of this project is to perform an experimental study on the influence of the thermal feedback on the burning behavior of well ventilated pre-flashover fires. For the purpose an experimental method has been developed. Here the same identical objects are tested under free burn conditions...... carried out by Carleton University and NRC-IRC performed on seven different types of fire loads representing commercial premises, comprise the tests used for the study. The results show that for some of the room test the heat release rate increased due to thermal feedback compared to free burn for a pre......-flashover fire. Two phenomena were observed, that relate well to theory was found. In an incipient phase the heat release rate rose with the temperature of the smoke layer/enclosure boundaries. This increase was also found to depend on the flammability properties of the burning object. The results also...

  3. FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otto Dvořák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

  4. Field Susceptibility of Quince Hybrids to Fire Blight in Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spread of fire blight in Bulgaria during the last 20 years has nearly eliminated commercial production of pear and quince. Damage has increased in both nurseries and orchards, yet susceptible cultivars continue to be planted. Quince is the host most frequently attacked by Erwinia amylovora in Bulgar...

  5. Modelling of fire count data: fire disaster risk in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boadi, Caleb; Harvey, Simon K; Gyeke-Dako, Agyapomaa

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic dynamics involved in ecological count data require distribution fitting procedures to model and make informed judgments. The study provides empirical research, focused on the provision of an early warning system and a spatial graph that can detect societal fire risks. It offers an opportunity for communities, organizations, risk managers, actuaries and governments to be aware of, and understand fire risks, so that they will increase the direct tackling of the threats posed by fire. Statistical distribution fitting method that best helps identify the stochastic dynamics of fire count data is used. The aim is to provide a fire-prediction model and fire spatial graph for observed fire count data. An empirical probability distribution model is fitted to the fire count data and compared to the theoretical probability distribution of the stochastic process of fire count data. The distribution fitted to the fire frequency count data helps identify the class of models that are exhibited by the fire and provides time leading decisions. The research suggests that fire frequency and loss (fire fatalities) count data in Ghana are best modelled with a Negative Binomial Distribution. The spatial map of observed fire frequency and fatality measured over 5 years (2007-2011) offers in this study a first regional assessment of fire frequency and fire fatality in Ghana.

  6. Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepstad, Daniel C.; Brown, I. Foster; Setzer, Alberto

    2000-01-01

    Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

  7. Fire behavior modeling-a decision tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Cohen; Bill Bradshaw

    1986-01-01

    The usefulness of an analytical model as a fire management decision tool is determined by the correspondence of its descriptive capability to the specific decision context. Fire managers must determine the usefulness of fire models as a decision tool when applied to varied situations. Because the wildland fire phenomenon is complex, analytical fire spread models will...

  8. Model Reduction of Nonlinear Fire Dynamics Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lattimer, Alan Martin

    2016-01-01

    Due to the complexity, multi-scale, and multi-physics nature of the mathematical models for fires, current numerical models require too much computational effort to be useful in design and real-time decision making, especially when dealing with fires over large domains. To reduce the computational time while retaining the complexity of the domain and physics, our research has focused on several reduced-order modeling techniques. Our contributions are improving wildland fire reduced-order mod...

  9. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  10. Relative Susceptibility of Quince, Pear, and Apple Cultivars to Fire Blight Following Greenhouse Inoculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fire blight caused by Erwinia amylovora (EA) is one of the most serious diseases of plants in the family Rosaceae, and Quince (Cydonia oblonga Mill.) is considered one of the most susceptible host genera. Apple (Malus sp.) and pear (Pyrus sp.) cultivars ranging from most susceptible to most resistan...

  11. Interfacing materials models with fire field models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Tieszen, S.R.; Moya, J.L.

    1995-12-01

    For flame spread over solid materials, there has traditionally been a large technology gap between fundamental combustion research and the somewhat simplistic approaches used for practical, real-world applications. Recent advances in computational hardware and computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based software have led to the development of fire field models. These models, when used in conjunction with material burning models, have the potential to bridge the gap between research and application by implementing physics-based engineering models in a transient, multi-dimensional tool. This paper discusses the coupling that is necessary between fire field models and burning material models for the simulation of solid material fires. Fire field models are capable of providing detailed information about the local fire environment. This information serves as an input to the solid material combustion submodel, which subsequently calculates the impact of the fire environment on the material. The response of the solid material (in terms of thermal response, decomposition, charring, and off-gassing) is then fed back into the field model as a source of mass, momentum and energy. The critical parameters which must be passed between the field model and the material burning model have been identified. Many computational issues must be addressed when developing such an interface. Some examples include the ability to track multiple fuels and species, local ignition criteria, and the need to use local grid refinement over the burning material of interest.

  12. Modeling boreal fire and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, W. J.; McRae, D. J.; Cantin, A.

    2009-04-01

    The circumpolar boreal forest covers about 1.4 billion ha, representing 1/3 of global forest land. Approximately 2/3 of the boreal forest is located in Eurasia and the remainder in North America. Wildland fires annually burn an estimated 12-20 M ha across the entire boreal region, having a major influence on forest structure and composition. However, fire weather, fire behaviour, and fire ecology differ greatly between the boreal forests in eastern and western hemispheres, which have significant impact on tree survival, post-fire regeneration and forest succession. Every year, wildland fires in Canada and Alaska burn an average of 2-3 M ha, primarily by stand-replacing, high intensity crown fires. By comparison, Russian fires burn about 10-15 M ha annually, primarily by low to moderate intensity surface fires that cause minimal tree mortality. Fire weather conditions in the most fire prone regions of Russia are generally more severe than in similar regions of North America. Finally, the species composition of eastern and western boreal forests is also very different. Russian forests are dominated by larch (30%) and pine (28%) with lower components of spruce (14%) and poplar/birch hardwoods (18%) By contrast, Canadian forests are comprised mainly of spruce (35%), pine (22%), poplar/birch (16%), and fir (9%). All of these factors contribute to the variability in vegetation dynamics occurring within the circumpolar boreal region. This modeling study examines the interactions of fire weather, forest composition, fire behaviour, and fire ecology on forest vegetation dynamics within the boreal region. Similar active fire zones in western Canada and eastern Siberia were used as study sites. Historical weather data were collected for both locations and used to calculate fire weather data, which were used as primary driving variables for the Boreal Fire Effects model (BORFIRE). Fire behaviour was calculated in BORFIRE using data for major tree species at both study sites

  13. Mapping Forest Fire Susceptibility in Temperate Mountain Areas with Expert Knowledge. A Case Study from Iezer Mountains, Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, Bogdan; Savulescu, Ionut

    2014-05-01

    Forest fires in Romanian Carpathians became a frequent phenomenon during the last decade, although local climate and other environmental features did not create typical conditions. From 2004, forest fires affect in Romania more than 100 hectares/year of different forest types (deciduous and coniferous). Their magnitude and frequency are not known, since a historical forest fire inventory does not exist (only press papers and local witness for some selected events). Forest fires features the summer dry periods but there are dry autumns and early winter periods with events of different magnitudes. The application we propose is based on an empirical modeling of forest fire susceptibility in a typical mountain area from the Southern Carpathians, the Iezer Mountains (2462 m). The study area features almost all the altitudinal vegetation zones of the European temperate mountains, from the beech zone, to the coniferous zone, the subalpine and the alpine zones (Mihai et al., 2007). The analysis combines GIS and remote sensing models (Chuvieco et al., 2012), starting from the ideas that forest fires are featured by the ignition zones and then by the fire propagation zones. The first data layer (ignition zones) is the result of the crossing between the ignition factors: lightning - points of multitemporal occurence and anthropogenic activities (grazing, tourism and traffic) and the ignition zones (forest fuel zonation - forest stands, soil cover and topoclimatic factor zonation). This data is modelled from different sources: the MODIS imagery fire product (Hantson et al., 2012), detailed topographic maps, multitemporal orthophotos at 0.5 m resolution, Landsat multispectral imagery, forestry cadastre maps, detailed soil maps, meteorological data (the WorldClim digital database) as well as the field survey (mapping using GPS and local observation). The second data layer (fire propagation zones) is the result of the crossing between the forest fuel zonation, obtained with the

  14. Expression of viral EPS-depolymerase reduces fire blight susceptibility in transgenic pear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malnoy, Mickaël; Faize, Mohamed; Venisse, Jean-Stéphane; Geider, Klaus; Chevreau, Elisabeth

    2005-02-01

    Erwinia amylovora is the causal agent of fire blight of Maloideae. One of the main pathogenicity factors of this bacterium is the exopolysaccharide (EPS) of its capsule. In this paper, we used genetic transformation tools to constitutively express an EPS-depolymerase transgene in the pear (Pyrus communis L.) cv. Passe Crassane with the aim of decreasing its high susceptibility to fire blight. Expression of the depolymerase gene in 15 independent transgenic clones led, on average, to low depolymerase activity, although relatively high expression was observed at the transcriptional and translational levels. Only two of the transgenic clones (9X and 10M) consistently showed a decrease in fire blight susceptibility in vitro and in the greenhouse. These clones were also among the highest expressers of depolymerase at the RNA and enzyme activity levels. The correlation observed among all transgenic clones between depolymerase expression and fire blight resistance suggested the potential of this strategy.

  15. Standard fire behavior fuel models: a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Robert E. Burgan

    2005-01-01

    This report describes a new set of standard fire behavior fuel models for use with Rothermel's surface fire spread model and the relationship of the new set to the original set of 13 fire behavior fuel models. To assist with transition to using the new fuel models, a fuel model selection guide, fuel model crosswalk, and set of fuel model photos are provided.

  16. Performance of fire behavior fuel models developed for the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Ziel; W. Matt Jolly

    2009-01-01

    In 2005, 40 new fire behavior fuel models were published for use with the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model. These new models are intended to augment the original 13 developed in 1972 and 1976. As a compiled set of quantitative fuel descriptions that serve as input to the Rothermel model, the selected fire behavior fuel model has always been critical to the resulting...

  17. Iron homeostasis and fire blight susceptibility in transgenic pear plants overexpressing a pea ferritin gene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djennane, Samia; Cesbron, Colette; Sourice, Sophie; Cournol, Raphael; Dupuis, Fabrice; Eychenne, Magali; Loridon, Karine; Chevreau, Elisabeth

    2011-05-01

    The bacterial pathogen Erwinia amylovora causes the devastating disease known as fire blight in some rosaceous plants including apple and pear. One of the pathogenicity factors affecting fire blight development is the production of a siderophore, desferrioxamine, which overcomes the limiting conditions in plant tissues and also protects bacteria against active oxygen species. In this paper we examine the effect of an iron chelator protein encoded by the pea ferritin gene on the fire blight susceptibility of pear (Pyrus communis). Transgenic pear clones expressing this gene controlled either by the constitutive promoter CaMV 35S or by the inducible promoter sgd24 promoter were produced. The transgenic clones produced were analysed by Q-RT-PCR to determine the level of expression of the pea transgene. A pathogen-inducible pattern of expression of the pea transgene was observed in sgd24-promoter transformants. Adaptation to iron deficiency in vitro was tested in some transgenic clones and different iron metabolism parameters were measured. No strong effect on iron and chlorophyll content, root reductase activity and fire blight susceptibility was detected in the transgenic lines tested. No transformants showed a significant reduction in susceptibility to fire blight in greenhouse conditions when inoculated with E. amylovora.

  18. Building fire zone model with symbolic mathematics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武红梅; 郜冶; 周允基

    2009-01-01

    To apply the fire modelling for the fire engineer with symbolic mathematics,the key equations of a zone model were demonstrated. There were thirteen variables with nine constraints,so only four ordinary differential equations (ODEs) were required to solve. A typical fire modelling with two-room structure was studied. Accordingly,the source terms included in the ODEs were simplified and modelled,and the fourth Runge-Kutta method was used to solve the ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with symbolic mathematics. Then a zone model could be used with symbolic mathematics. It is proposed that symbolic mathematics is possible for use by fire engineer.

  19. Tropical Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping at the Cat Ba National Park Area, Hai Phong City, Vietnam, Using GIS-Based Kernel Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieu Tien Bui

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Cat Ba National Park area (Vietnam with its tropical forest is recognized as being part of the world biodiversity conservation by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO and is a well-known destination for tourists, with around 500,000 travelers per year. This area has been the site for many research projects; however, no project has been carried out for forest fire susceptibility assessment. Thus, protection of the forest including fire prevention is one of the main concerns of the local authorities. This work aims to produce a tropical forest fire susceptibility map for the Cat Ba National Park area, which may be helpful for the local authorities in forest fire protection management. To obtain this purpose, first, historical forest fires and related factors were collected from various sources to construct a GIS database. Then, a forest fire susceptibility model was developed using Kernel logistic regression. The quality of the model was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC, and five statistical evaluation measures. The usability of the resulting model is further compared with a benchmark model, the support vector machine (SVM. The results show that the Kernel logistic regression model has a high level of performance in both the training and validation dataset, with a prediction capability of 92.2%. Since the Kernel logistic regression model outperforms the benchmark model, we conclude that the proposed model is a promising alternative tool that should also be considered for forest fire susceptibility mapping in other areas. The results of this study are useful for the local authorities in forest planning and management.

  20. Comparison of crown fire modeling systems used in three fire management applications

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, J. H.

    2006-01-01

    The relative behavior of surface-crown fire spread rate modeling systems used in three fire management applications—CFIS (Crown Fire Initiation and Spread), FlamMap and NEXUS— is compared using fire environment characteristics derived from a dataset of destructively measured canopy fuel and associated stand characteristics. Although the surface-crown modeling systems predict the same basic fire behavior characteristics (type of fire, spread rate) using the same basic fire environment characte...

  1. Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Antoine Santoni

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

  2. Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Kulakowski

    Full Text Available The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand

  3. Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

    2011-01-01

    Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

  4. Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current

  5. Susceptibility of eastern U.S. habitats to invasion of Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) following fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leicht-Young, Stacey A.; Pavlovic, Noel B.; Grundel, Ralph

    2013-01-01

    Fire effects on invasive species are an important land management issue in areas subjected to prescribed fires as well as wildfires. These effects on invasive species can be manifested across life stages. The liana Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) is a widespread invader of eastern US habitats including those where fire management is in practice. This study examined if prescribed fire makes these habitats more susceptible to invasion of C. orbiculatus by seed at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore. Four treatments (control, litter removed, high and low intensity fire) were applied in six habitat types (sand savanna/woodland, sand prairie, moraine prairie, sand oak forest, beech-maple forest, and oak-hickory forest) and germinating seedlings were tracked over two growing seasons. Treatment did not have a significant effect on the germination, survival, or biomass of C. orbiculatus. However, habitat type did influence these responses mostly in the first growing season. Moraine prairie, beech-maple forest, and oak-hickory forests had the greatest peak percentage of germinants. Moraine prairie had significantly greater survival than oak forest and savanna habitats. Control plots with intact litter, and the moraine prairie habitat had the tallest seedlings at germination, while tallest final heights and greatest aboveground biomass were highest in oak forest. Thus, fire and litter removal did not increase the susceptibility of these habitats to germination and survival of C. orbiculatus. These results indicate that most eastern US habitats are vulnerable to invasion by this species via seed regardless of the level or type of disturbance to the litter layer.

  6. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Henri Balbi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.

  7. Epidemic extinction in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hanshuang; Huang, Feng; Zhang, Haifeng; Li, Guofeng

    2017-01-01

    We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected at the rate λ when contacting m infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an infected individual spontaneously recovers at the rate μ. By employing the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation for the master equation, the problem is reduced to finding the zero-energy trajectories in an effective Hamiltonian system, and the mean extinction time depends exponentially on the associated action S and the size of the population N, ˜ \\exp ≤ft(NS\\right) . Because of qualitatively different bifurcation features for m  =  1 and m≥slant 2 , we derive independently the expressions of S as a function of the rescaled infection rate λ /μ . For the weak infection, S scales to the distance to the bifurcation with an exponent 2 for m  =  1 and 3/2 for m≥slant 2 . Finally, a rare-event simulation method is used to validate the theory.

  8. Exact results for power spectrum and susceptibility of a leaky integrate-and-fire neuron with two-state noise

    CERN Document Server

    Droste, Felix

    2016-01-01

    The response properties of excitable systems driven by colored noise are of great interest, but are usually mathematically only accessible via approximations. For this reason, dichotomous noise, a rare example of a colored noise leading often to analytically tractable problems, has been extensively used in the study of stochastic systems. Here, we calculate exact expressions for the power spectrum and the susceptibility of a leaky integrate-and-fire neuron driven by asymmetric dichotomous noise. While our results are in excellent agreement with simulations, they also highlight a limitation of using dichotomous noise as a simple model for more complex fluctuations: Both power spectrum and susceptibility exhibit an undamped periodic structure, the origin of which we discuss in detail.

  9. Modelling the probability of building fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Barták

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

  10. Geospatial modeling of fire-size distributions in historical low-severity fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, D.; Kellogg, L. B.; Larkin, N. K.

    2006-12-01

    Low-severity fires are recorded by fire-scarred trees. These records can provide temporal depth for reconstructing fire history because one tree may record dozens of separate fires over time, thereby providing adequate sample size for estimating fire frequency. Estimates of actual fire perimeters from these point-based records are uncertain, however, because fire boundaries can only be located approximately. We indirectly estimate fire-size distributions without attempting to establish individual fire perimeters. The slope and intercept of the interval-area function, a power-law relationship between sample area and mean fire-free intervals for that area, provide surrogates for the moments of a fire-size distribution, given a distribution of fire- free intervals. Analogously, by deconstructing variograms that use a binary distance measure (Sorensen's index) for the similarity of the time-series of fires recorded by pairs of recorder trees, we provide estimates of modal fire size. We link both variograms and interval-area functions to fire size distributions by simulating fire size distributions on neutral landscapes with and without right- censoring to represent topographic controls on maximum fire size. From parameters of the two functions produced by simulations we can back-estimate means and variances of fire sizes on real landscapes. This scale-based modeling provides a robust alternative to empirical and heuristic methods and a means to extrapolate estimates of fire-size distributions to unsampled landscapes.

  11. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1982-01-01

    Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....

  12. Laboratory Modeling of Aspects of Large Fires,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-04-30

    7 -7 g~L AD-A153 152 DNA-TR- 84-18 LABORATORY MODELING OF ASPECTS OF LARGE FIRES G.F. Carrier "URARY F.E. Fendell b DVSO R.D. Fleeter N. Got L.M...I1I TITLE (include Socurty Olassihicarion) LABORATORY MODELING OF ASPECTS OF LARGE FIRES 12. PERSONAL AUrHoR(S G.F. Carrier F.E. Fendell R.D. Fleeter N...Motorbuch Verlag.___ Caidin, M. (1960). A Torch to the Enemy: the Fire Raid on Tokyo. New York, NY: Ballantine. Carrier, G. F., Fendell , F. E., and

  13. A wildland fire modeling and visualization environment

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Kochanski, Adam K; Kondratenko, Volodymyr Y; Zhang, Lin; Anderson, Erik; Daniels, Joel; Silva, Claudio T; Johnson, Christopher R

    2011-01-01

    We present an overview of a modeling environment, consisting of a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model, utilities for visualization, data processing, and diagnostics, open source software repositories, and a community wiki. The fire model, called SFIRE, is based on a fire-spread model, implemented by the level-set method, and it is coupled with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. A version with a subset of the features is distributed with WRF 3.3 as WRF-Fire. In each time step, the fire module takes the wind as input and returns the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The software architecture uses WRF parallel infrastructure for massively parallel computing. Recent features of the code include interpolation from an ideal logarithmic wind profile for nonhomogeneous fuels and ignition from a fire perimeter with an atmosphere and fire spin-up. Real runs use online sources for fuel maps, fine-scale topography, and meteorological data, and can run faster than real time. Visualization pathways allow generating...

  14. Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolette, V.F. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, K.T. [Notre Dame Univ., IN (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories` participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia`s participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants.

  15. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  16. Magnetic susceptibilities of cluster-hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Susan R.; Berker, A. Nihat

    1984-02-01

    The exact magnetic susceptibilities of hierarchical models are calculated near and away from criticality, in both the ordered and disordered phases. The mechanism and phenomenology are discussed for models with susceptibilities that are physically sensible, e.g., nondivergent away from criticality. Such models are found based upon the Niemeijer-van Leeuwen cluster renormalization. A recursion-matrix method is presented for the renormalization-group evaluation of response functions. Diagonalization of this matrix at fixed points provides simple criteria for well-behaved densities and response functions.

  17. Review of UCN 5,6 Fire PSA Model based on ANS Fire PRA Standard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Joon Eon; Lee, Yoon Hwan

    2006-12-15

    Recently, under the de-regulation environment, nuclear industry has attempted various approaches to improve the economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). This approach uses the fire risk and performance information to manage the resources effectively and efficiently that are used in the operation of NPP. In fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation, fire PSA quality is one of the most important things. The nuclear industry and regulatory body of U.S.A have developed a measure to evaluate the quality of fire PSA. ANS (American Nuclear Society) has developed a guidance called 'ANS Fire PRA Methodology Standard'. However, in Korea, there have been no attempts to evaluate the quality of fire PSA model itself. Therefore, we cannot be sure about the quality of fire PSA whether or not the present fire PSA model can be used for the risk-informed applications such as mentioned above. We can say that the evaluation of fire PSA model quality is the basis for the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation. In this report, we have evaluated the quality of fire PSA model for Ulchin 5 and 6 units based on the ANS Fire PRA Standard. We, also, have derived what items are to be improved to upgrade the quality of fire PSA model and how it can be improved. This report can be used as the base of the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation work in Korea.

  18. The differential susceptibility to media effects model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this theoretical article, we introduce the Differential Susceptibility to Media Effects Model (DSMM), a new, integrative model to improve our understanding of media effects. The DSMM organizes, integrates, and extends the insights developed in earlier microlevel media-effects theories. It

  19. The differential susceptibility to media effects model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this theoretical article, we introduce the Differential Susceptibility to Media Effects Model (DSMM), a new, integrative model to improve our understanding of media effects. The DSMM organizes, integrates, and extends the insights developed in earlier microlevel media-effects theories. It disting

  20. The differential susceptibility to media effects model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this theoretical article, we introduce the Differential Susceptibility to Media Effects Model (DSMM), a new, integrative model to improve our understanding of media effects. The DSMM organizes, integrates, and extends the insights developed in earlier microlevel media-effects theories. It disting

  1. A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric L. Smith

    1987-01-01

    Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

  2. Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE): Modeling gaps and data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Adam Kochanski; Kirk Baker; Ruddy Mell; Rodman Linn; Ronan Paugam; Jan Mandel; Aime Fournier; Mary Ann Jenkins; Scott Goodrick; Gary Achtemeier; Andrew Hudak; Matthew Dickson; Brian Potter; Craig Clements; Shawn Urbanski; Roger Ottmar; Narasimhan Larkin; Timothy Brown; Nancy French; Susan Prichard; Adam Watts; Derek McNamara

    2017-01-01

    Fire and smoke models are numerical tools for simulating fire behavior, smoke dynamics, and air quality impacts of wildland fires. Fire models are developed based on the fundamental chemistry and physics of combustion and fire spread or statistical analysis of experimental data (Sullivan 2009). They provide information on fire spread and fuel consumption for safe and...

  3. Market Susceptibility Toward Disruptive Business Model Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Dover, Oliver; Nord, Erik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the conditional factors indicating market susceptibility toward disruptive innovation. There is a need to separate the different forms of disruptive innovation into segments targeting; technology, product or business model disruption. The concepts are fundamentally different and the literature to date is very one sided toward disruptive technology/product innovation. A shortage of studies on disruptive business model innovation has been discovered. This study therefore pr...

  4. Characteristic Analysis of Fire Modeling Codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Hoon [Kyeongmin College, Ujeongbu (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-04-15

    This report documents and compares key features of four zone models: CFAST, COMPBRN IIIE, MAGIC and the Fire Induced Vulnerability Evaluation (FIVE) methodology. CFAST and MAGIC handle multi-compartment, multi-fire problems, using many equations; COMPBRN and FIVE handle single compartment, single fire source problems, using simpler equation. The increased rigor of the formulation of CFAST and MAGIC does not mean that these codes are more accurate in every domain; for instance, the FIVE methodology uses a single zone approximation with a plume/ceiling jet sublayer, while the other models use a two-zone treatment without a plume/ceiling jet sublayer. Comparisons with enclosure fire data indicate that inclusion of plume/ceiling jet sublayer temperatures is more conservative, and generally more accurate than neglecting them. Adding a plume/ceiling jet sublayer to the two-zone models should be relatively straightforward, but it has not been done yet for any of the two-zone models. Such an improvement is in progress for MAGIC.

  5. Modeling pyrolysis of charring material in fire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A modified model of pyrolysis for charring materials in fire has been proposed in this note. In this model some special factors which show the effect on pyrolysis are considered, i.e. heat loss by convection and radiation caused by surface temperature rise and shrinkage of char surface are considered. Experimental device is designed specially for validating the reliability of the model. Effects of density of materials and heat radiation on pyrolysis of materials have also been investigated.

  6. Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the wildland fire emissions information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy H.F. French; Donald McKenzie; Tyler Erickson; Benjamin Koziol; Michael Billmire; K. Endsley; Naomi K.Y. Scheinerman; Liza Jenkins; Mary E. Miller; Roger Ottmar; Susan Prichard

    2014-01-01

    As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent...

  7. Evaluation of Susceptibility of Different Pear Hybrid Populations to Fire Blight (Erwinia amylovora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasemin EVRENOSOĞLU

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Fire blight disease caused by pathogenic bacterium Erwinia amylovora, is the serious disease of pear, and there is not a certain chemical management against this disease except antibiotic-type compounds such as streptomycin. It is very important to improve new fire blight resistant cultivars in case of integrated disease management. With this purpose, different crosses have been made between Pyrus communis varieties that have good fruit characteristics and resistant cultigens. Besides, self and open pollination treatments have been carried out in maternal plants. The disease resistance level of the hybrids obtained from these combinations was determined by artificial inoculations by Erwinia amylovora in greenhouse conditions. A total of 3284 hybrids were inoculated, and 2631 of them survived and were distributed to different susceptibility classes. 19.88% of the inoculated hybrids was killed by Erwinia amylovora. Total distribution of the hybrids to susceptibility classes was as 6.18% in class “A- slightly susceptible”, 3.11% in class “B- less susceptible”, 8.89% in class “C- mid-susceptible”, 20.28% in class “D- susceptible”, and 61.54% in class “E- very susceptible”. Majority of class “A- slightly susceptible” hybrids were obtained from ‘Magness’ x ‘Ankara’ combination. ‘Kieffer’ x ‘Santa Maria’, ‘Kieffer’ open pollination, ‘Magness’ x ‘Akça’, ‘Magness’ x ‘Kieffer’, ‘Magness’ x ‘Santa Maria’, ‘Mustafa Bey’ x ‘Moonglow’ treatments displayed good results with respect to “A- slightly susceptible” character. It is very important to evaluate these hybrid pear populations through different fruit and tree characteristics in the future.

  8. Use of numerical modeling in design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    Co-firing biomass with coal or gas in the existing units has gained increasing interest in the recent past to increase the production of environmentally friendly, renewable green power. This paper presents design considerations for co-firing biomass with natural gas in wall-fired burners by use...... and reaction of a particle. To better understand biomass combustion and thus improve the design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners, non-sphericity of biomass particles is considered. To ease comparison, two cases are numerically studied in a 10m long gas/biomass co-fired burner model. (1) The biomass...... the design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners are finally suggested....

  9. Modeling thermal protection outfits for fire exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Guowen

    2002-01-01

    A numerical model has been developed that successfully predicts heat transfer through thermally protective clothing materials and garments exposed to intense heat. The model considers the effect of fire exposure to the thermophysical properties of materials as well as the air layers between the clothing material and skin surface. These experiments involved characterizing the flash fire surrounding the manikin by measuring the temperature of the flame above each thermal sensor in the manikin surface. An estimation method is used to calculate the heat transfer coefficient for each thermal sensor in a 4 second exposure to an average heat flux of 2.00cal/cm2sec. A parameter estimation method was used to estimate heat induced change in fabric thermophysical properties. The skin-clothe air gap distribution of different garments was determined using three-dimensional body scanning technology. Multi-layer skin model and a burn prediction method were used to predict second and third degree burns. The integrated generalized model developed was validated using the "Pyroman" Thermal Protective Clothing Analysis System with Kevlar/PBIRTM and NomexRTMIIIA coverall garments with different configuration and exposure time. A parametric study conducted using this numerical model indicated the influencing parameters on garment thermal protective performance in terms of skin burn damage subjected to 4 second flash fire exposure. The importance of these parameters is analyzed and distinguished. These parameters includes fabric thermophysical properties, PyromanRTM chamber flash fire characteristics, garment shrinkage and fit factors, as well as garment initial and test ambient temperature. Different skin models and their influence on burn prediction were also investigated using this model.

  10. Integrating Fire Effects into an Ecohydrologic Model for Simulating Fire Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, R. R.; Tague, C.; Kennedy, M. C.; McKenzie, D.

    2016-12-01

    Ecohydrologic models are used to dynamically simulate vegetation growth/ mortality and their interaction with water and nutrient fluxes. Although disturbances such as wildfire are a natural part of the landscape in environments such as the Western US, wildfire is generally included only as an exogenous variable in ecohydrologic models. An alternative approach is to integrate wildfire directly into ecohydrologic models so that wildfire ignition, spread and effects are driven by simulated landscape conditions within the model. This approach allows for the simulation of natural fire regimes and may provide more robust estimates of long-term ecological variables such as forest health, carbon sequestration and water use. For this study, we detail a fire-effects model that has been developed to couple a fire-spread model, WMFire, with an ecohydrologic model, RHESSys. The fire-effects model is designed for use with a simple two-stratum representation of canopy structure and computes losses following fire spread to a given landscape patch. Losses to a modeled litter layer, coarse woody debris layer and understory vegetation layer are determined based on a patch-level integrated measure of fuel loads, moisture levels, wind speed, and topography. Losses to an overstory vegetation layer are based on understory biomass consumed by the wildfire. The fire effects model was found to replicate the expected impacts of wildfire on vegetation and litter. Further, the fully coupled RHESSys-WMFire model was tested in four Western US watersheds with different vegetation/climate/fire characteristics and preliminary results indicated that the model was able to reproduce the disparate fire regimes. We highlight remaining challenges with simulating fire effects in ecohydrologic models using simplified representations of canopy structures and litter fuels. This study demonstrates the potential for integrating fire into ecohydrologic models for simulating future fire regimes.

  11. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  12. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

  13. Fire Spread Model for Old Towns Based on Cellular Automaton

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Nan; WENG Wenguo; MA Wei; NI Shunjiang; HUANG Quanyi; YUAN Hongyong

    2008-01-01

    Old towns like Lijiang have enormous historic,artistic,and architectural value.The buildings in such old towns are usually made of highly combustible materials,such as wood and grass.If a fire breaks out,it will spread to multiple buildings,so fire spreading and controlling in old towns need to be studied.This paper presents a fire spread model for old towns based on cellular automaton.The cellular automaton rules were set according to historical fire data in empirical formulas.The model also considered the effects of climate.The simulation results were visualized in a geography information system.An example of a fire spread in Lijiang was investigated with the results showing that this model provides a realistic tool for predicting fire spread in old towns.Fire brigades can use this tool to predict when and how a fire spreads to minimize the losses.

  14. Modeling human-caused forest fire ignition for assessing forest fire danger in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arndt N

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires have not been considered as a significant threat for mountain forests of the European Alpine Space so far. Climate change and its effects on nature, ecology, forest stand structure and composition, global changes according to demands of society and general trends in the provision of ecosystem services are potentially going to have a significant effect on fire ignition in the future. This makes the prediction of forest fire ignition essential for forest managers in order to establish an effective fire prevention system and to allocate fire fighting resources effectively, especially in alpine landscapes. This paper presents a modelling approach for predicting human-caused forest fire ignition by a range of socio-economic factors associated with an increasing forest fire danger in Austria. The relationship between touristic activities, infrastructure, agriculture and forestry and the spatial occurrence of forest fires have been studied over a 17-year period between 1993 and 2009 by means of logistic regression. 59 independent socio-economic variables have been analysed with different models and validated with heterogeneous subsets of forest fire records. The variables included in the final model indicate that railroad, forest road and hiking trail density together with agricultural and forestry developments may contribute significantly to fire danger. The final model explains 60.5% of the causes of the fire events in the validation set and allows a solid prediction. Maps showing the fire danger classification allow identifying the most vulnerable forest areas in Austria and are used to predict the fire danger classes on municipality level.

  15. 76 FR 46330 - NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-02

    ... COMMISSION NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft... for public comment a document entitled, NUREG-1934 (EPRI 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling... pdr.resource@nrc.gov . NUREG-1934 (EPRI 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

  16. Modelling of fire spread in car parks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.

  17. Reformulation of Rothermel's wildland fire behaviour model for heterogeneous fuelbeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David V. Sandberg; Cynthia L. Riccardi; Mark D. Schaaf

    2007-01-01

    Abstract: The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) includes equations that calculate energy release and one-dimensional spread rate in quasi-steady-state fires in heterogeneous but spatially uniform wildland fuelbeds, using a reformulation of the widely used Rothermel fire spread model. This reformulation provides an automated means to predict fire behavior...

  18. Pitfalls in statistical landslide susceptibility modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröder, Boris; Vorpahl, Peter; Märker, Michael; Elsenbeer, Helmut

    2010-05-01

    The use of statistical methods is a well-established approach to predict landslide occurrence probabilities and to assess landslide susceptibility. This is achieved by applying statistical methods relating historical landslide inventories to topographic indices as predictor variables. In our contribution, we compare several new and powerful methods developed in machine learning and well-established in landscape ecology and macroecology for predicting the distribution of shallow landslides in tropical mountain rainforests in southern Ecuador (among others: boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, maximum entropy). Although these methods are powerful, we think it is necessary to follow a basic set of guidelines to avoid some pitfalls regarding data sampling, predictor selection, and model quality assessment, especially if a comparison of different models is contemplated. We therefore suggest to apply a novel toolbox to evaluate approaches to the statistical modelling of landslide susceptibility. Additionally, we propose some methods to open the "black box" as an inherent part of machine learning methods in order to achieve further explanatory insights into preparatory factors that control landslides. Sampling of training data should be guided by hypotheses regarding processes that lead to slope failure taking into account their respective spatial scales. This approach leads to the selection of a set of candidate predictor variables considered on adequate spatial scales. This set should be checked for multicollinearity in order to facilitate model response curve interpretation. Model quality assesses how well a model is able to reproduce independent observations of its response variable. This includes criteria to evaluate different aspects of model performance, i.e. model discrimination, model calibration, and model refinement. In order to assess a possible violation of the assumption of independency in the training samples or a possible

  19. Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

    2008-01-01

    The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

  20. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marie Kehrwald

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  1. Integrating Fire Behavior Models and Geospatial Analysis for Wildland Fire Risk Assessment and Fuel Management Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan A. Ager

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals and public expectations. A number of fire behavior metrics, including fire spread, intensity, likelihood, and ecological risk must be analyzed for multiple treatment alternatives. The effect of treatments on wildfire impacts must be considered at multiple scales. The process is complicated by the lack of data integration among fire behavior models, and weak linkages to geographic information systems, corporate data, and desktop office software. This paper describes our efforts to build a streamlined fuel management planning and risk assessment framework, and an integrated system of tools for designing and testing fuel treatment programs on fire-prone wildlands.

  2. Modelling fire frequency in a Cerrado savanna protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C; Oliveira, Sofia L J; Pereira, José M C; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world's most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997-2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects.

  3. Calculation of precise firing statistics in a neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Myoung Won

    2017-08-01

    A precise prediction of neural firing dynamics is requisite to understand the function of and the learning process in a biological neural network which works depending on exact spike timings. Basically, the prediction of firing statistics is a delicate manybody problem because the firing probability of a neuron at a time is determined by the summation over all effects from past firing states. A neural network model with the Feynman path integral formulation is recently introduced. In this paper, we present several methods to calculate firing statistics in the model. We apply the methods to some cases and compare the theoretical predictions with simulation results.

  4. Fuel consumption and fire emissions estimates using Fire Radiative Power, burned area and statistical modelling on the fire event scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruecker, Gernot; Leimbach, David; Guenther, Felix; Barradas, Carol; Hoffmann, Anja

    2016-04-01

    Fire Radiative Power (FRP) retrieved by infrared sensors, such as flown on several polar orbiting and geostationary satellites, has been shown to be proportional to fuel consumption rates in vegetation fires, and hence the total radiative energy released by a fire (Fire Radiative Energy, FRE) is proportional to the total amount of biomass burned. However, due to the sparse temporal coverage of polar orbiting and the coarse spatial resolution of geostationary sensors, it is difficult to estimate fuel consumption for single fire events. Here we explore an approach for estimating FRE through temporal integration of MODIS FRP retrievals over MODIS-derived burned areas. Temporal integration is aided by statistical modelling to estimate missing observations using a generalized additive model (GAM) and taking advantage of additional information such as land cover and a global dataset of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), as well as diurnal and annual FRP fluctuation patterns. Based on results from study areas located in savannah regions of Southern and Eastern Africa and Brazil, we compare this method to estimates based on simple temporal integration of FRP retrievals over the fire lifetime, and estimate the potential variability of FRP integration results across a range of fire sizes. We compare FRE-based fuel consumption against a database of field experiments in similar landscapes. Results show that for larger fires, this method yields realistic estimates and is more robust when only a small number of observations is available than the simple temporal integration. Finally, we offer an outlook on the integration of data from other satellites, specifically FireBird, S-NPP VIIRS and Sentinel-3, as well as on using higher resolution burned area data sets derived from Landsat and similar sensors.

  5. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  6. Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2014-01-01

    The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire...

  7. Simulation of a compartment fire using a zone model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Lizhong; GUO Zaifu; JI Jingwei; FAN Weicheng

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the zone modeling analysis of a single compartment flashover fire. Two criteria are applied in the model to judge the onset of ignition for different combustibles. By calculating the total received energy through radiation or the surface temperature of the combustible, the fire growth can be quantitatively determined. The improved zone fire model shows the influence of different combustibles upon the fire growth. This model is better than the traditional zone model because the common criteria of flashover, i.e. an upper layer temperature of 600℃ and the heat radiation intensity received by the floor of 20 kW/m2, have not been applied in it.

  8. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  9. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  10. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  11. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

    2012-01-01

    Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

  12. A Markov model for measuring artillery fire support effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Guzik, Dennis M.

    1988-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis presents a Markov model, which, given an indirect fire weapon system's parameters, yields measures of the weapon's effectiveness in providing fire support to a maneuver element. These parameters may be determined for a variety of different scenarios. Any indirect fire weapon system may be a candidate for evaluation. This model may be used in comparing alternative weapon systems for the role of direct support of a Marin...

  13. Towards a Real-Time Data Driven Wildland Fire Model

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Chakraborty, Soham; Coen, Janice L; Douglas, Craig C; Vodacek, Anthony; Wang, Zhen

    2008-01-01

    A wildland fire model based on semi-empirical relations for the spread rate of a surface fire and post-frontal heat release is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric model (WRF). The propagation of the fire front is implemented by a level set method. Data is assimilated by a morphing ensemble Kalman filter, which provides amplitude as well as position corrections. Thermal images of a fire will provide the observations and will be compared to a synthetic image from the model state.

  14. Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O. [VTT Building Technology, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-03-01

    Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem `Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility`. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.).

  15. Developing a probabilistic fire risk model and its application to fire danger systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penman, T.; Bradstock, R.; Caccamo, G.; Price, O.

    2012-04-01

    Wildfires can result in significant economic losses where they encounter human assets. Management agencies have large budgets devoted to both prevention and suppression of fires, but little is known about the extent to which they alter the probability of asset loss. Prediction of the risk of asset loss as a result of wildfire requires an understanding of a number of complex processes from ignition, fire growth and impact on assets. These processes need to account for the additive or multiplicative effects of management, weather and the natural environment. Traditional analytical methods can only examine only a small subset of these. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) provide a methodology to examine complex environmental problems. Outcomes of a BBN are represented as likelihoods, which can then form the basis for risk analysis and management. Here we combine a range of data sources, including simulation models, empirical statistical analyses and expert opinion to form a fire management BBN. Various management actions have been incorporated into the model including landscape and interface prescribed burning, initial attack and fire suppression. Performance of the model has been tested against fire history datasets with strong correlations being found. Adapting the BBN presented here we are capable of developing a spatial and temporal fire danger rating system. Currently Australian fire danger rating systems are based on the weather. Our model accounts for existing fires, as well as the risk of new ignitions combined with probabilistic weather forecasts to identify those areas which are most at risk of asset loss. Fire growth is modelled with consideration given to management prevention efforts, as well as suppression resources that are available in each geographic locality. At a 10km resolution the model will provide a probability of asset loss which represents a significant step forward in the level of information that can be provided to the general public.

  16. Selection of fire spread model for Russian fire behavior prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandra V. Volokitina; Kevin C. Ryan; Tatiana M. Sofronova; Mark A. Sofronov

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of fire behavior prediction is only possible if the models are supplied with an information database that provides spatially explicit input parameters for modeled area. Mathematical models can be of three kinds: 1) physical; 2) empirical; and 3) quasi-empirical (Sullivan, 2009). Physical models (Grishin, 1992) are of academic interest only because...

  17. Prioritization of reactor control components susceptible to fire damage as a consequence of aging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, W.; Vigil, R. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nowlen, S. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-01-01

    The Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Test Program is to identify and assess issues of plant aging that could lead to an increase in nuclear power plant risk because of fires. Historical component data and prior analyses are used to prioritize a list of components with respect to aging and fire vulnerability and the consequences of their failure on plant safety systems. The component list emphasizes safety system control components, but excludes cables, large equipment, and devices encompassed in the Equipment Qualification (EQ) program. The test program selected components identified in a utility survey and developed test and fire conditions necessary to maximize the effectiveness of the test program. Fire damage considerations were limited to purely thermal effects.

  18. Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.

  19. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  20. Modeling the spatial distribution of forest crown biomass and effects on fire behavior with FUEL3D and WFDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William Mell; Peter McCauley

    2010-01-01

    Crown fire poses challenges to fire managers and can endanger fire fighters. Understanding of how fire interacts with tree crowns is essential to informed decisions about crown fire. Current operational crown fire predictions in the United States assume homogeneous crown fuels. While a new class of research fire models, which model fire behavior with computational...

  1. The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam S.; Melton, Joe R.; Lasslop, Gitta; Bachelet, Dominique; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kaplan, Jed O.; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Ward, Daniel S.; Yue, Chao; Arora, Vivek K.; Hickler, Thomas; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Nieradzik, Lars; Spessa, Allan; Folberth, Gerd A.; Sheehan, Tim; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Sitch, Stephen; Harrison, Sandy; Arneth, Almut

    2017-03-01

    The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over 2 decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. In this paper, we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models. We have also created supplementary tables that describe, in thorough mathematical detail, the structure of each model.

  2. Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

    2016-01-01

    Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from

  3. Global biogeochemical modeling of contemporary fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Depaz, J. M.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Morton, D. C.; Kasibhatla, P.; Defries, R. S.; Jin, Y.; Mu, M.; Collatz, G. J.

    2008-12-01

    Improved estimates of contemporary fire emissions are needed to better understand the effects of a changing fire regime on climate and air quality. At a global scale, uncertainties in fire emissions arise from several sources, including estimates of burned area, aboveground biomass, combustion completeness, and emission factors. The development of long-term time series requires addressing additional sources of uncertainty related to the integration of different satellite fire products, the representation of organic soils and peatlands, and the use of fire in the deforestation process. Here we describe improvements to a global fire emissions time series (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3) that reduce uncertainties associated with many of the factors described above. We then characterized long-term trends in fire emissions for different continental-scale regions during 1996-2007. Using South America as an example, we show how climate and human activity contribute to interannual variability in emissions and how the spatial pattern of emissions has changed over time. In a final step we use atmospheric observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to refine and validate our bottom-up emissions estimates for South America.

  4. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  5. Numerical modelling and experimental assessment of concrete spalling in fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shamalta, M.; Breunese, A.; Peelen, W.; Fellinger, J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the phenomenon of spalling of concrete in fire has been studied using a numerical model. Spalling is the violent or non-violent breaking off of layers or pieces of concrete when it is exposed to high temperatures as experienced in fires. The types and mechanisms of spalling have been

  6. Numerical modelling and experimental assessment of concrete spalling in fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shamalta, M.; Breunese, A.J.; Peelen, W.H.A.; Fellinger, J.H.H.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the phenomenon of spalling of concrete in fire has been studied using a numerical model. Spalling is the violent or non-violent breaking off of layers or pieces of concrete when it is exposed to high temperatures as experienced in fires. The types and mechanisms of spalling have been

  7. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  8. Development of fire simulation models for radiative heat transfer and probabilistic risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hostikka, Simo

    2008-01-01

    An essential part of fire risk assessment is the analysis of fire hazards and fire propagation. In this work, models and tools for two different aspects of numerical fire simulation have been developed. The primary objectives have been firstly to investigate the possibility of exploiting state-of-the-art fire models within probabilistic fire risk assessments and secondly to develop a computationally efficient solver of thermal radiation for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code. In the f...

  9. Log-periodic behavior in a forest-fire model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores log-periodicity in a forest-fire cellular-automata model. At each time step of this model a tree is dropped on a randomly chosen site; if the site is unoccupied, the tree is planted. Then, for a given sparking frequency, matches are dropped on a randomly chosen site; if the site is occupied by a tree, the tree ignites and an 'instantaneous' model fire consumes that tree and all adjacent trees. The resultant frequency-area distribution for the small and medium model fires is a power-law. However, if we consider very small sparking frequencies, the large model fires that span the square grid are dominant, and we find that the peaks in the frequency-area distribution of these large fires satisfy log-periodic scaling to a good approximation. This behavior can be examined using a simple mean-field model, where in time, the density of trees on the grid exponentially approaches unity. This exponential behavior coupled with a periodic or near-periodic sparking frequency also generates a sequence of peaks in the frequency-area distribution of large fires that satisfy log-periodic scaling. We conclude that the forest-fire model might provide a relatively simple explanation for the log-periodic behavior often seen in nature.

  10. Gaps in Data and Modeling Tools for Understanding Fire and Fire Effects in Tundra Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, N. H.; Miller, M. E.; Loboda, T. V.; Jenkins, L. K.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Suiter, A.; Hawkins, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    As the ecosystem science community learns more about tundra ecosystems and disturbance in tundra, a review of base data sets and ecological field data for the region shows there are many gaps that need to be filled. In this paper we will review efforts to improve our knowledge of the occurrence and impacts of fire in the North American tundra region completed under a NASA Terrestrial Ecology grant. Our main source of information is remote sensing data from satellite sensors and ecological data from past and recent field data collections by our team, collaborators, and others. Past fire occurrence is not well known for this region compared with other North American biomes. In this presentation we review an effort to use a semi-automated detection algorithm to identify past fire occurrence using the Landsat TM/ETM+ archives, pointing out some of the still-unaddressed issues for a full understanding of fire regime for the region. For this task, fires in Landsat scenes were mapped using the Random Forest classifier (Breiman 2001) to automatically detect potential burn scars. Random Forests is an ensemble classifier that employs machine learning to build a large collection of decision trees that are grown from a random selection of user supplied training data. A pixel's classification is then determined by which class receives the most 'votes' from each tree. We also review the use fire location records and existing modeling methods to quantify emissions from these fires. Based on existing maps of vegetation fuels, we used the approach developed for the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS; French et al. 2011) to estimate emissions across the tundra region. WFEIS employs the Consume model (http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/research/smoke/consume/index.shtml) to estimate emissions by applying empirically developed relationships between fuels, fire conditions (weather-based fire indexes), and emissions. Here again, we will review the gaps in data and modeling

  11. Global stability analysis of a delayed susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulhus, Calah; Wang, Xiang-Sheng

    2015-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible model with distributed delays. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals, we demonstrate that the global dynamics of this model is fully determined by the basic reproductive ratio R0. To be specific, we prove that if R0 ≤ 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. On the other hand, if R0>1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. It is remarkable that the model dynamics is independent of the probability of immunity lost.

  12. Occupant evacuation model based on cellular automata in fire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    By applying the rules set in traffic flow and pedestrian flow models, a basic cellular automata model is presented to simulate occupant evacuation in fire. Some extended models are introduced to study the special phenomena of evacuation from the fire room. The key of the models is the introduction of the danger grade which makes the route choice convenient and reasonable. Fire not only influences the emotional and behavioral characteristics of an individual but also affects his physical constitution, which reduces his maximal possible velocity. The models consider these influence factors by applying a set of simple but effective rules. It is needed to emphasize that all rules are established according to the essential phenomenon in fire evacuation, that is, all the occupants would try to move to the safest place as fast as possible. Some simulation examples are also presented to validate the applicability of the models.

  13. Screening low fire blight susceptible Crataegus species for host suitability to hawthorn leaf-curling aphids (Dysaphis spp.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bribosia, E; Bylemans, D; Van Impe, G; Migon, M

    2002-01-01

    The group of hawthorn leaf-curling aphids (Dysaphis spp.) hosted by the common hawthorn Crataegus monogyna Jacq. may play an important role in the biological control of the rosy apple aphid, Dysaphis plantaginea (Passerini), by increasing reproduction opportunities for the indigenous hymenopteran parasitoid Ephedrus persicae Froggatt. Unfortunately, most fruitgrowers hesitate to introduce the common hawthorn in their orchards because they fear fire blight infections which may be transmitted by this highly susceptible hawthron species. This potential hazard led us to investigate the suitability to leaf-curling aphids of alternative Crataegus species. As representative for these closely-related aphids, the species Dysaphis apiifolia petroselini (Börner) was used in the trials. Ten Crataegus species characterized by their very low susceptibility to fire blight were examined from two angles. Firstly, aphid sexuals were introduced in autumn onto the different species to verify whether egg laying could take place. Secondly, the development of fundatrices and gall formation were followed the next spring. Although eggs and mature fundatrices could be obtained on almost all species, no fundatrice-hosting galls were recorded in spring. The possible causes of these negative results with respect to the geographical origin of the particular Crataegus species involved in this work are discussed.

  14. Modelling Effectiveness of Machine Gun Fire

    OpenAIRE

    Dutta, D.; S. Sabhanval

    2002-01-01

    Machine gun is an effective infantry weapon which can cause heavy damage to enemy targets, if sited in a tactically favourable position. It can be engaged effectively against both static and moving targets. The paper deals with the determination of target vulnerability under effective machine gun fire considering relevant tactical parameters, eg, target aiming point, trajectory of fire, sweep angle, target frontage, posture, direction of attack, etc.

  15. Modelling Effectiveness of Machine Gun Fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Dutta

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Machine gun is an effective infantry weapon which can cause heavy damage to enemy targets, if sited in a tactically favourable position. It can be engaged effectively against both static and moving targets. The paper deals with the determination of target vulnerability under effective machine gun fire considering relevant tactical parameters, eg, target aiming point, trajectory of fire, sweep angle, target frontage, posture, direction of attack, etc.

  16. Susceptible-infected-recovered model with recurrent infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruziska, Flávia M.; Tomé, Tânia; de Oliveira, Mário J.

    2017-02-01

    We analyze a stochastic lattice model describing the spreading of a disease among a community composed by susceptible, infected and removed individuals. A susceptible individual becomes infected catalytically. An infected individual may, spontaneously, either become recovered, that is, acquire a permanent immunization, or become again susceptible. The critical properties including the phase diagram is obtained by means of mean-field theories as well as numerical simulations. The model is found to belong to the universality class of dynamic percolation except when the recovering rate vanishes in which case the model belongs to the directed percolation universality class.

  17. Stability of differential susceptibility and infectivity epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonzi, B.; Fall, A. A.; Iggidr, Abderrahman; Sallet, Gauthier

    2011-01-01

    We introduce classes of differential susceptibility and infectivity epidemic models. These models address the problem of flows between the different susceptible, infectious and infected compartments and differential death rates as well. We prove the global stability of the disease free equilibrium when the basic reproduction ratio ≤ 1 and the existence and uniqueness of an endemic equilibrium when > 1. We also prove the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium for a differential susceptibility and staged progression infectivity model, when > 1. Our results encompass and generalize those of [18, 22]. AMS Subject Classification : 34A34,34D23,34D40,92D30 PMID:20148330

  18. Spatial fire modeling in Mkuze Game Reserve: A case study*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.G. Berjak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Controlled burning is a necessary and regular activity in Mkuze Game Reserve, South Africa. Predicting the rate and extent of fire spread in controlled burning operations is, therefore, an important management objective. In this paper we evaluate a cellular automaton model for fire spread in terms of this objective using empirical data for two case studies in Mkuze Game Reserve. Incorporating data relating to factors such as temperature reduction in the early evening, subsequent dew formation and increased fuel moisture content, the model was found to closely resemble the observed fire behaviour.

  19. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  20. Simulation models WRF-Fire for wildland fire to purpose of disaster mitigation in Indonesia (Case study: Wildland fire on September, 23th 2015 in South of Sumatera)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggoro, Adityo Mega; Putra, Agie Wandala; Hutasoit, Budi Saritua

    2017-07-01

    Indonesia is one of the countries known as a one of the world lungs because it has a large forest and varied species. Besides that Indonesia has frequently hit by wildfires a year, one in 2015 yesterday which was hotly discussed because of the impact of forest fires that disrupt transport activity for flights resulting from interruption of smoke from fires. Therefore, it is important to be able to model the behavior of forest fires to disaster mitigation. In this study simulated forest fires in the region of South Sumatra on September 23, 2015 by the coordinates of fires 3,17°S and 106,03°E, this information is obtained from observation satellite imagery LANDSAT8 and hotspot distribution information from LAPAN. WRF-Fire is a combination model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with dynamic ARW core with fire semi-empirical models, based on the level set method. Methods of data analysis using descriptive analysis, comparative and spatial. The results showed that the distribution pattern of the fire resulting models have similarities with observation, the fire along with the smoke moving toward the northwest, then from the simulation results of surface winds and the invasion of fire has a correlation value of 0.62. WRF-Fire models able to simulate the extent of wildland fire even though it has few results overestimate is 1.725 ha and observations is 1.709 ha, this shows that the WRF-Fire models able be used to help mitigate the catastrophic wildland fire in Indonesia.

  1. Solving the Dynamic Correlation Problem of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Model on Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Cai, Chao-Ran; Chen, Michael Z Q; Holme, Petter; Guan, Jian-Yue

    2016-01-01

    The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model is a canonical model for emerging disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks are naturally modeled as taking place on networks. A theoretical challenge in network epidemiology is the dynamic correlations coming from that if one node is occupied, or infected (for disease spreading models), then its neighbors are likely to be occupied. By combining two theoretical approaches---the heterogeneous mean-field theory and the effective degree method---we are able to include these correlations in an analytical solution of the SIS model. We derive accurate expressions for the average prevalence (fraction of infected) and epidemic threshold. We also discuss how to generalize the approach to a larger class of stochastic population models.

  2. Numerical Modelling by FLAC on Coal Fires in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusat, D.; Drebenstedt, C.

    2009-04-01

    Coal fires occur in many countries all over the world (e.g. Australia, China, India, Indonesia, USA and Russia) in underground and on surface. In China the most coal fires occur especially in the North. Economical and environmental damages are the negative effects of the coal fires: coal fires induce open fractures and fissures within the seam and neighbouring rocks. So that these are the predominant pathways for oxygen flow and exhaust gases from a coal fire. All over northern China there are a large number of coal fires, which cause and estimated yearly coal loss of between 100 and 200 million tons ([1], [2], [3]). Spontaneous combustion is a very complicated process and is influenced by number of factors. The process is an exothermic reaction in which the heat generated is dissipated by conduction to the surrounding environment, by radiation, by convection to the ventilation flow, and in some cases by evaporation of moisture from the coal [4]. The coal fires are very serious in China, and the dangerous extent of spontaneous combustion is bad which occupies about 72.9% in mining coal seams. During coal mining in China, the coal fires of spontaneous combustion are quite severity. The dangerous of coal spontaneous combustion has been in 56% of state major coalmines [5]. The 2D and 3D-simulation models describing coal fire damages are strong tools to predict fractures and fissures, to estimate the risk of coal fire propagation into neighbouring seams, to test and evaluate coal fire fighting and prevention methods. The numerical simulations of the rock mechanical model were made with the software for geomechanical and geotechnical calculations, the programs FLAC and FLAC3D [6]. To fight again the coal fires, exist several fire fighting techniques. Water, slurries or liquefied nitrogen can be injected to cool down the coal or cut of air supply with the backfill and thereby extinct the fire. Air supply also can be cut of by covering the coal by soil or sealing of the

  3. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  4. Epidemic Threshold of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Model on Complex Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Hyun Keun; Noh, Jae Dong

    2013-01-01

    We demonstrate that the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks can have an inactive Griffiths phase characterized by a slow relaxation dynamics. It contrasts with the mean field theoretical prediction that the SIS model on complex networks is active at any nonzero infection rate. The dynamic fluctuation of infected nodes, ignored in the mean field approach, is responsible for the inactive phase. It is proposed that the question whether the epidemic threshold of the SIS model on complex networks is zero or not can be resolved by the percolation threshold in a model where nodes are occupied in the degree-descending order. Our arguments are supported by the numerical studies on scale-free network models.

  5. Toward Modelling Topsoil Magnetic Susceptibility for Demining Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannam, J. A.; Dearing, J. A.

    2003-12-01

    The Landmine Monitor estimates that landmines cause up to 20,000 fatalities and casualties worldwide every year, in over 100 countries affected by landmine contamination. Although detection technologies have become more sophisticated, the metal detector still remains the most widely employed detection system in landmine affected regions. With increased use of minimum metal mines, the performance and sensitivity of metal detectors are increasingly challenged. In addition to mine constituents, depth of burial and orientation, soil properties significantly affect metal detection capabilities. Soils with high magnetic susceptibility, in particular those dominated by viscous components, interfere with the response signal in both frequency and time domain metal detection systems. Using Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as a pilot region, we created an expert system to predict topsoil susceptibility from environmental information within a SOTER data base. Initially, the knowledge base is constructed from published relationships of environmental parameters and magnetic susceptibility and knowledge of experts in the field of soil magnetism. The knowledge base is underpinned by environmental conditions that are known to enhance or reduce magnetic susceptibility in topsoils. Where semi-quantitative data exists, transfer-functions are used to provide first approximations of susceptibility classes and offer a basis for a probability score for the susceptibility class. As a first approximation, susceptibility values are categorized into five continuous classes delimited by published magnetic susceptibility ranges in topsoils. The predicted susceptibility maps result in regional contrasts, delineated by the spatial scale of the environmental information. Further development of the model using a Baysean rule-based system with fuzzy boundaries is anticipated. Validation of the model is proposed using archived soil survey samples from BiH. In addition to providing essential data for

  6. Integration of satellite fire products into MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Kloster, Silvia

    2013-04-01

    Fires are the ubiquitous phenomenon affecting all natural biomes. Since the beginning of the satellite Era, fires are being continuously observed from satellites. The most interesting satellite parameter retrieved from satellite measurements is the burned area. Combined with information on biomass available for burning the burned area can be translated into climate relevant carbon emissions from fires into the atmosphere. In this study we integrate observed burned area into a global vegetation model to derive global fire emissions. Global continuous burned area dataset is provided by the Global Fire Emissions Dataset (GFED). GFED products were obtained from MODIS (and pre-MODIS) satellites and are available for the time period of 14 years (1997-2011). This dataset is widely used, well documented and supported by periodical updates containing new features. We integrate the global burned area product into the land model JSBACH, a part of the Earth-System model developed at the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology. The land model JSBACH simulates land biomass in terms of carbon content. Fire is an important disturbance process in the Earth's carbon cycle and affects mainly the carbon stored in vegetation. In the standard JSBACH version fire is represented by process based algorithms. Using the satellite data as an alternative we are targeting better comparability of modeled carbon emissions with independent satellite measurements of atmospheric composition. The structure of burned vegetation inside of a biome can be described as the balance between woody and herbaceous vegetation. GFED provides in addition to the burned area satellite derived information of the tree cover distribution within the burned area. Using this dataset, we can attribute the burned area to the respective simulated herbaceous or woody biomass within the vegetation model. By testing several extreme cases we evaluate the quantitative impact of vegetation balance between woody and herbaceous

  7. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burnt area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, I. N.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Lima, A.; Shimabukuro, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2014-03-01

    Current methods for modelling burnt area in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation, but undeniably useful for modelling specific, small-scale burns. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia in 2005, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. This model is intended for predicting large-scale burnt area rather than looking at individual fire events. A simple parameterization of a tapered fractal distribution is calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burnt area map. The model is capable of accurately reproducing the total area burnt (16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using the MODIS MCD14ML active fire product, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but the magnitude of the differences between these estimates and the GFED3.1 burnt area products varies per continent.

  8. Villaflores: Municipal forest fire management model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedro Martínez Muñoz; Carlos Alberto Velázquez Sanabria

    2013-01-01

    As provided for in the General Law on Sustainable Forestry Development, the Municipality of Villaflores has worked on a continuous basis since 2002 to reduce the damage caused by forest fires as part of its working agenda, in conjunction with Federal and State agencies and NGOs. The work plan has the following phases: a) Inter-agency coordination:...

  9. Integrating fire with hydrological projections: model evaluation to identify uncertainties and tradeoffs in model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, M.; McKenzie, D.

    2013-12-01

    It is imperative for resource managers to understand how a changing climate might modify future watershed and hydrological processes, and such an understanding is incomplete if disturbances such as fire are not integrated with hydrological projections. Can a robust fire spread model be developed that approximates patterns of fire spread in response to varying topography wind patterns, and fuel loads and moistures, without requiring intensive calibration to each new study area or time frame? We assessed the performance of a stochastic model of fire spread (WMFire), integrated with the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), for projecting the effects of climatic change on mountain watersheds. We first use Monte Carlo inference to determine that the fire spread model is able to replicate the spatial pattern of fire spread for a contemporary wildfire in Washington State (the Tripod fire), measured by the lacunarity and fractal dimension of the fire. We then integrate a version of WMFire able to replicate the contemporary wildfire with RHESSys and simulate a New Mexico watershed over the calibration period of RHESSys (1941-1997). In comparing the fire spread model to a single contemporary wildfire we found issues in parameter identifiability for several of the nine parameters, due to model input uncertainty and insensitivity of the mathematical function to certain ranges of the parameter values. Model input uncertainty is caused by the inherent difficulty in reconstructing fuel loads and fuel moistures for a fire event after the fire has occurred, as well as by issues in translating variables relevant to hydrological processes produced by the hydrological model to those known to affect fire spread and fire severity. The first stage in the model evaluation aided the improvement of the model in both of these regards. In transporting the model to a new landscape in order to evaluate fire regimes in addition to patterns of fire spread, we find reasonable

  10. A model of backdraft phenomenon in building fires

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In order to further investigate the physical mechanism of the backdraft phenomenon in building fires, a simplified math ematical model is established based on energy balance equation, and its catastrophe mechanism is analyzed based on catastrophe theory, and the relationship between system control variables and fire conditions is studied. It is indicated that the backdraft phenomenon is a kind of typical catastrophe behavior, and of the common characteristics of catastrophe.

  11. Modelling the spreading of large-scale wildland fires

    CERN Document Server

    Drissi, Mohamed

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a stochastic small-world network model with those of a deterministic semi-physical model of the interaction between burning and non-burning cells that strongly depends on local conditions of wind, topography, and vegetation. Radiation and convection from the flaming zone, and radiative heat loss to the ambient are considered in the preheating process of unburned cells. Second, the model is applied to an Australian grassland fire experiment as well as to a real fire that took place in Corsica in 2009. Predictions compare favorably to experiments in terms of rate of spread, area and shape of the burn. Finally, the sensitivity of the model outcomes (here the rate of spread) to six input parameters is studied using a two-level full factorial design.

  12. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and potential application to fire and fuels management for the Savannah River Site.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan

    2011-12-20

    This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.

  13. Coupling CFAST fire modeling and SAPHIRE probabilistic assessment software for internal fire safety evaluation of a typical TRIGA research reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safaei Arshi, Saiedeh [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, E-mail: nema@shirazu.ac.i [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sepanloo, Kamran [Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2010-03-15

    Due to the significant threat of internal fires for the safety operation of nuclear reactors, presumed fire scenarios with potential hazards for loss of typical research reactor safety functions are analyzed by coupling CFAST fire modeling and SAPHIRE probabilistic assessment software. The investigations show that fire hazards associated with electrical cable insulation, lubricating oils, diesel, electrical equipment and carbon filters may lead to unsafe situations called core damage states. Using system-specific event trees, the occurrence frequency of core damage states after the occurrence of each possible fire scenario in critical fire compartments is evaluated. Probability that the fire ignited in the given fire compartment will burn long enough to cause the extent of damage defined by each fire scenario is calculated by means of detection-suppression event tree. As a part of detection-suppression event trees quantification, and also for generating the necessary input data for evaluating the frequency of core damage states by SAPHIRE 7.0 software, CFAST fire modeling software is applied. The results provide a probabilistic measure of the quality of existing fire protection systems in order to maintain the reactor at a reasonable safety level.

  14. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, I. N.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Lima, A.; Shimabukuro, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2013-08-01

    Current methods for modelling burnt area in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. Several parameterizations of two possible distributions are calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burned area map, and compared. The tapered Pareto model most accurately simulates the total area burnt (only 3.5 km2 larger than the recorded 16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using MODIS MCD14ML fire counts, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but produces generally higher estimates than the GFED3.1 burnt area product, suggesting higher pan-tropical carbon emissions from fires than previously estimated.

  15. Infinity computations in cellular automaton forest-fire model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iudin, D. I.; Sergeyev, Ya. D.; Hayakawa, M.

    2015-03-01

    Recently a number of traditional models related to the percolation theory has been considered by means of a new computational methodology that does not use Cantor's ideas and describes infinite and infinitesimal numbers in accordance with the principle 'The whole is greater than the part' (Euclid's Common Notion 5). Here we apply the new arithmetic to a cellular automaton forest-fire model which is connected with the percolation methodology and in some sense combines the dynamic and the static percolation problems and under certain conditions exhibits critical fluctuations. It is well known that there exist two versions of the model: real forest-fire model where fire catches adjacent trees in the forest in the step by step manner and simplified version with instantaneous combustion. Using new approach we observe that in both situations we deal with the same model but with different time resolution. We show that depending on the "microscope" we use the same cellular automaton forest-fire model reveals either instantaneous forest combustion or step by step firing. By means of the new approach it was also observed that as far as we choose an infinitesimal tree growing rate and infinitesimal ratio between the ignition probability and the growth probability we determine the measure or extent of the system size infinity that provides the criticality of the system dynamics. Correspondent inequalities for grosspowers are derived.

  16. Wild Fire Emissions for the NOAA Operational HYSPLIT Smoke Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H. C.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; McQueen, J.; DiMego, G.; Kondragunta, S.; Gorline, J.; Huang, J. P.; Stunder, B.; Stein, A. F.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

    2015-12-01

    Particulate Matter (PM) generated from forest fires often lead to degraded visibility and unhealthy air quality in nearby and downstream areas. To provide near-real time PM information to the state and local agencies, the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) operational HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) smoke modeling system (NWS/HYSPLIT smoke) provides the forecast of smoke concentration resulting from fire emissions driven by the NWS North American Model 12 km weather predictions. The NWS/HYSPLIT smoke incorporates the U.S. Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework (BlueSky) to provide smoke fire emissions along with the input fire locations from the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)'s Hazard Mapping System fire and smoke detection system. Experienced analysts inspect satellite imagery from multiple sensors onboard geostationary and orbital satellites to identify the location, size and duration of smoke emissions for the model. NWS/HYSPLIT smoke is being updated to use a newer version of USFS BlueSky. The updated BlueSky incorporates the Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 2 (FCCS2) over the continental U.S. and Alaska. FCCS2 includes a more detailed description of fuel loadings with additional plant type categories. The updated BlueSky also utilizes an improved fuel consumption model and fire emission production system. For the period of August 2014 and June 2015, NWS/HYSPLIT smoke simulations show that fire smoke emissions with updated BlueSky are stronger than the current operational BlueSky in the Northwest U.S. For the same comparisons, weaker fire smoke emissions from the updated BlueSky were observed over the middle and eastern part of the U.S. A statistical evaluation of NWS/HYSPLIT smoke predicted total column concentration compared to NOAA NESDIS GOES EAST Aerosol Smoke Product retrievals is underway. Preliminary results show that using the newer version

  17. Investigation of Fire Growth and Spread in a Model-Scale Railcar Using an Applied Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ali Kazemipour; Mahyar Pourghasemi; Hossein Afshin; Bijan Farhanieh

    2016-01-01

    Fire is a potential hazard in public transportation facilities such as subways or road tunnels due to its contribution to high number of deaths. To provide an insight into fire development behavior in tunnels which can serve as the basis for emergency ventilation design, model-scale railcar fire is explored numerically in this research. Fire growth and its spread are investigated by analyzing the HRR curve as the representative of fire behavior in different stages. Fire developmen...

  18. Systems and models of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Kielak

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents fire blight prediction models and systems, developed in Europe (system Billing - versions: BOS, BRS, BIS95 and originated from this system: Firescreen, FEUERBRA and ANLAFBRA and in United States (Californian system, model Maryblyt and system Cougarblight. Use of above models and systems in various climatic-geographic conditions and comparison of obtained prognostic data to real fire blight occurrence is reviewed. The newest trends in research on improvement of prognostic analyses parameters with their adjustment to particular conditions and consideration of infection source occurrence are also presented.

  19. Modeling the variability of firing rate of retinal ganglion cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, M W

    1992-12-01

    Impulse trains simulating the maintained discharges of retinal ganglion cells were generated by digital realizations of the integrate-and-fire model. If the mean rate were set by a "bias" level added to "noise," the variability of firing would be related to the mean firing rate as an inverse square root law; the maintained discharges of retinal ganglion cells deviate systematically from such a relationship. A more realistic relationship can be obtained if the integrate-and-fire mechanism is "leaky"; with this refinement, the integrate-and-fire model captures the essential features of the data. However, the model shows that the distribution of intervals is insensitive to that of the underlying variability. The leakage time constant, threshold, and distribution of the noise are confounded, rendering the model unspecifiable. Another aspect of variability is presented by the variance of responses to repeated discrete stimuli. The variance of response rate increases with the mean response amplitude; the nature of that relationship depends on the duration of the periods in which the response is sampled. These results have defied explanation. But if it is assumed that variability depends on mean rate in the way observed for maintained discharges, the variability of responses to abrupt changes in lighting can be predicted from the observed mean responses. The parameters that provide the best fits for the variability of responses also provide a reasonable fit to the variability of maintained discharges.

  20. Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

    2007-01-01

    Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

  1. Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton

    2009-01-01

    Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...

  2. FireStem2D--a two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efthalia K Chatziefstratiou

    Full Text Available FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by resolving stem moisture loss, temperatures through the stem, degree of bark charring, and necrotic depth around the stem. We present the results of numerical parameterization and model evaluation experiments for FireStem2D that simulate laboratory stem-heating experiments of 52 tree sections from 25 trees. We also conducted a set of virtual sensitivity analysis experiments to test the effects of unevenness of heating around the stem and with aboveground height using data from two studies: a low-intensity surface fire and a more intense crown fire. The model allows for improved understanding and prediction of the effects of wildland fire on injury and mortality of trees of different species and sizes.

  3. Fired Models of Air-gun Source and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luo Guichun; Ge Hongkui; Wang Baoshan; Hu Ping; Mu Hongwang; Chen Yong

    2008-01-01

    Air-gun is an important active seismic source. With the development of the theory about air-gun array, the technique for air-gun array design becomes mature and is widely used in petroleum exploration and geophysics. In order to adapt it to different research domains,different combination and fired models are needed. At the present time, there are two firedmodels of air-gun source, namely, reinforced initial pulse and reinforced first bubble pulse.The fired time, space between single guns, frequency and resolution of the two models are different. This comparison can supply the basis for its extensive application.

  4. Hdr reactor containment fire modeling with Br12

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockett, J.A.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Heikkilae, L.

    1992-01-01

    Fire tests at the German test reactor, HDR, were simulated using a Japanese zone model code, BRI2. Eight and ten room models of the containment building were developed. Critical phenomena occurring during simulation were explored. BRI2 can be used for this type of work but care must be exercised where a side wind increases entrainment by the fire plume. Horizontal vents were described by effective vertical vents. The effect of location of the vent to the ambient was found critical during severely oxygen limited burning. (Copyright (c) Valtion teknillinen tutkimuskeskus (VTT) 1992.)

  5. A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present 3: Mathematical analogues and simulation models

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, A L

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behvaiour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of a simulation or mathematical analogue nature. Most simulation models are implementations of existing empirical or quasi-empirical models and their primary function is to convert these generally one dimensional models to two dimensions and then propagate a fire perimeter across a modelled landscape. Mathematical analogue models are those that are based on some mathematical conceit (rather than a physical representation of fire spread) that coincidentally simulates the spread of fire. Other papers in the series review models of an physical or quasi-physical nature and empirical or quasi-empirical nature. Many models are extensions or ...

  6. Griffiths effects of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on random power-law networks

    CERN Document Server

    Cota, Wesley F C; Ódor, Géza

    2015-01-01

    We provide numerical evidence for slow dynamics of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model evolving on finite-size random networks with power-law degree distributions. Extensive simulations were done by averaging the activity density over many realizations of networks. We investigated the effects of outliers in both highly fluctuating (natural cutoff) and non-fluctuating (hard cutoff) most connected vertices. Logarithmic and power-law decays in time were found for natural and hard cutoffs, respectively. This happens in extended regions of the control parameter space $\\lambda_1<\\lambda<\\lambda_2$, suggesting Griffiths effects, induced by the topological inhomogeneities. Optimal fluctuation theory considering sample-to-sample fluctuations of the pseudo thresholds is presented to explain the observed slow dynamics. A quasistationary analysis shows that response functions remain bounded at $\\lambda_2$. We argue these to be signals of a smeared transition. However, in the thermodynamic limit the Griffiths...

  7. Temporal interactions facilitate endemicity in the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model

    CERN Document Server

    Speidel, Leo; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Masuda, Naoki

    2016-01-01

    Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of both network structure and temporal dimensions. Theoretical approaches are much needed for identifying key factors that affect dynamics of epidemics. In particular, what factors make some temporal networks stronger media of infection than other temporal networks is under debate. We develop a theory to understand the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on arbitrary temporal networks, where each contact is used for a finite duration. We show that temporality of networks always lessens the epidemic threshold such that infections are easier to persist in temporal networks than in the static counterparts. We further show that the Lie commutator bracket of the adjacency matrices at different times is a key determinant of the epidemic threshold in temporal networks. The e...

  8. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Formetta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause loss of life and significant damages involving private and public properties, transportation system, etc. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. Reliable models' applications involve: automatic parameters calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, model sensitivity analysis. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify and compare different models and different models performances indicators in order to individuate and eventually select the models whose behaviors are more reliable for a certain case study. The procedure was implemented in package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3 and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, the optimization of the index distance to perfect classification in the receiver operating characteristic plane (D2PC coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case.

  9. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formetta, G.; Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause loss of life and significant damages involving private and public properties, transportation system, etc. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. Reliable models' applications involve: automatic parameters calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, model sensitivity analysis. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify and compare different models and different models performances indicators in order to individuate and eventually select the models whose behaviors are more reliable for a certain case study. The procedure was implemented in package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, the optimization of the index distance to perfect classification in the receiver operating characteristic plane (D2PC) coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case.

  10. Fire severity estimated from remote sensing data to evaluate the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, P.; Coen, J.; Schroeder, W.

    2013-12-01

    Fire severity defined as the degree of damage originated from fire on soils and vegetation immediately after the fire, is affected by weather conditions (i.e. wind, air humidity), terrain characteristics (i.e. slope, aspect) and fuel properties (i.e. tree density, fuel moisture content). In this study we evaluated the relationships between fire severity estimated from Earth Observing Advance Land Imager (EO-ALI) images and the heat fluxes produced by the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model (Coen 2013). We present the results for a large fire occurred in New Mexico in June 2012 which burned 44,330 acres. The EO-ALI sensor (30 m spatial resolution) has nine spectral bands, six of them were designed to mimic Landsat bands and the three additional bands cover 443, 867.5 and 1250 nm. We used a physically-based approach to estimate fire severity developed by De Santis et al. (2009). This method classifies the satellite image into Geophysical Composite burned index (GeoCBI) values, which represent the fire severity within the fire-affected area, using radiative transfer model simulated spectra as reference. This method has been used to characterize fire severity levels using Landsat images and validated with field data (R2 > 0.85). Based on those results we expected a better performance of EO-ALI images due to its improved spectral resolution. On the other hand, CAWFE is composed of two parts: a numerical weather prediction model and a fire behavior module that represents the growth of a wildland fire in response to factors such as wind, terrain, and fuels, and includes the fire's impact on the atmosphere. To perform the evaluation we selected a stratified random sample by fire severity level. The values of maximum heat flux (sensible, latent), and total heat flux showed a higher correlation with the higher levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.8-3) than with the medium levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.3-2.8). However, the total heat flux proved to

  11. Fire disturbance and vegetation dynamics : analysis and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, Kirsten

    2003-04-01

    Studies of the role of disturbance in vegetation or ecosystems showed that disturbances are an essential and intrinsic element of ecosystems that contribute substantially to ecosystem health, to structural diversity of ecosystems and to nutrient cycling at the local as well as global level. Fire as a grassland, bush or forest fire is a special disturbance agent, since it is caused by biotic as well abiotic environmental factors. Fire affects biogeochemical cycles and plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry by releasing climate-sensitive trace gases and aerosols, and thus in the global carbon cycle by releasing approximately 3.9 Gt C p.a. through biomass burning. A combined model to describe effects and feedbacks between fire and vegetation became relevant as changes in fire regimes due to land use and land management were observed and the global dimension of biomass burnt as an important carbon flux to the atmosphere, its influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate as well as vegetation dynamics were emphasized. The existing modelling approaches would not allow these investigations. As a consequence, an optimal set of variables that best describes fire occurrence, fire spread and its effects in ecosystems had to be defined, which can simulate observed fire regimes and help to analyse interactions between fire and vegetation dynamics as well as to allude to the reasons behind changing fire regimes. Especially, dynamic links between vegetation, climate and fire processes are required to analyse dynamic feedbacks and effects of changes of single environmental factors. This led us to the point, where new fire models had to be developed that would allow the investigations, mentioned above, and could help to improve our understanding of the role of fire in global ecology. In conclusion of the thesis, one can state that moisture conditions, its persistence over time and fuel load are the important components that describe global fire pattern. If time series of

  12. Modelling for Forest Fire Evolution Based on the Energy Accumulation and Release

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Yang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Forest fire evolution plays an important role in the decision-making of controlling the forest fire. This paper aims to simulate the dynamics of the forest fire spread using a cellular automaton approach. Having analyzed the characteristics and evolution of forest fires, a simulation model for the forest fire evolution based on the energy accumulation and release is proposed. And, taking Australia's catastrophic forest fire in 2009 as an example, the fire’s evolution closely to the reality is simulated. The results of the experiments are shown that if forest energy is released in a small scale before or during the fire, the fire would be better controlled even if it does not occur. Improving the efficiency of the fire extinguishing procedures and reducing the speed of the fire spread are also effective for controlling the forest fire.

  13. The ontology of genetic susceptibility factors (OGSF) and its application in modeling genetic susceptibility to vaccine adverse events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu; He, Yongqun

    2014-01-01

    Due to human variations in genetic susceptibility, vaccination often triggers adverse events in a small population of vaccinees. Based on our previous work on ontological modeling of genetic susceptibility to disease, we developed an Ontology of Genetic Susceptibility Factors (OGSF), a biomedical ontology in the domain of genetic susceptibility and genetic susceptibility factors. The OGSF framework was then applied in the area of vaccine adverse events (VAEs). OGSF aligns with the Basic Formal Ontology (BFO). OGSF defines 'genetic susceptibility' as a subclass of BFO:disposition and has a material basis 'genetic susceptibility factor'. The 'genetic susceptibility to pathological bodily process' is a subclasses of 'genetic susceptibility'. A VAE is a type of pathological bodily process. OGSF represents different types of genetic susceptibility factors including various susceptibility alleles (e.g., SNP and gene). A general OGSF design pattern was developed to represent genetic susceptibility to VAE and associated genetic susceptibility factors using experimental results in genetic association studies. To test and validate the design pattern, two case studies were populated in OGSF. In the first case study, human gene allele DBR*15:01 is susceptible to influenza vaccine Pandemrix-induced Multiple Sclerosis. The second case study reports genetic susceptibility polymorphisms associated with systemic smallpox VAEs. After the data of the Case Study 2 were represented using OGSF-based axioms, SPARQL was successfully developed to retrieve the susceptibility factors stored in the populated OGSF. A network of data from the Case Study 2 was constructed by using ontology terms and individuals as nodes and ontology relations as edges. Different social network analys is (SNA) methods were then applied to verify core OGSF terms. Interestingly, a SNA hub analysis verified all susceptibility alleles of SNPs and a SNA closeness analysis verified the susceptibility genes in Case

  14. Measurement strategy and analytic model to determine firing pin force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesenciuc, Ioan; Suciu, Cornel

    2016-12-01

    As illustrated in literature, ballistics is a branch of theoretical mechanics, which studies the construction and working principles of firearms and ammunition, their effects, as well as the motions of projectiles and bullets1. Criminalistics identification, as part of judiciary identification represents an activity aimed at finding common traits of different objects, objectives, phenomena and beings, but more importantly, traits that differentiate each of them from similar ones2-4. In judicial ballistics, in the case of rifled firearms it is relatively simple for experts to identify the used weapon from traces left on the projectile, as the rifling of the barrel leaves imprints on the bullet, which remain approximately identical even after the respective weapon is fired 100 times with the same barrel. However, in the case of smoothbore firearms, their identification becomes much more complicated. As the firing cap suffers alterations from being hit by the firing pin, determination of the force generated during impact creates the premises for determining the type of firearm used to shoot the respective cartridge. The present paper proposes a simple impact model that can be used to evaluate the force generated by the firing pin during its impact with the firing cap. The present research clearly showed that each rifle, by the combination of the three investigated parameters (impact force maximum value, its variation diagram, and impact time) leave a unique trace. Application of such a method in ballistics can create the perspectives for formulating clear conclusions that eliminate possible judicial errors in this field.

  15. Combining fire and erosion modeling to target forest management activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Elliot; Mary Ellen Miller; Nic Enstice

    2015-01-01

    Forests deliver a number of important ecosystem services including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing, quantity and quality of runoff are altered. A modeling study was carried out in a forested watershed in California to determine the risk of wildfire, and the potential post-fire sediment delivery from approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons...

  16. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfes in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cozzani, V.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fi

  17. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fi

  18. Façade fire tests – measurements and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Johan

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In two recent papers [1, 2] the fire dynamics in a test rig for façade constructions according to the test method SP Brand 105 [3, 4] was investigated both experimentally and numerically. The experimental setup simulates a three-story apartment building (height 6.7 m, width 4 m and depth 1.6 m, with external wall-cladding and a “room fire” at the base. The numerical model was developed in the CFD program Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS [5] with analogous geometry and instrumentation. The general features of the fire test were well reproduced in the numerical model however temperatures close to the fire source could not be properly accounted for in the model. In this paper the bi-directional probe measurements are elaborated on and the test used in Ref. [1] is revisited using different heat release rates in the numerical model. The velocity of the hot gases along the façade was well reproduced by the simulations although some deviations were found.

  19. Simplified stochastic modeling of concrete spalling due to fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straalen, IJ.J. van; Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Lentzen, S.S.K.; Vries, R. de

    2013-01-01

    Predicting spalling of concrete due to fire loading is undoubtedly a complex task to come across. Existing numerical models are dealing with the phenomena on different complexity levels of describing the physical/chemical processes and material behavior. But still they do not take the highly stochas

  20. Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

    2014-05-01

    Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the

  1. Modeling spatial patterns of wildfire susceptibility in southern California: Applications of MODIS remote sensing data and mesoscale numerical weather models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Philipp

    This dissertation investigates the potential of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and mesoscale numerical weather models for mapping wildfire susceptibility in general and for improving the Fire Potential Index (FPI) in southern California in particular. The dissertation explores the use of the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) from MODIS data for mapping relative greenness (RG) of vegetation and subsequently for computing the FPI. VARI-based RG was validated against in situ observations of live fuel moisture. The results indicate that VARI is superior to the previously used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for computing RG. FPI computed using VARI-based RG was found to outperform the traditional FPI when validated against historical fire detections using logistic regression. The study further investigates the potential of using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) on MODIS data for estimating live and dead fractions of vegetation. MESMA fractions were compared against in situ measurements and fractions derived from data of a high-resolution, hyperspectral sensor. The results show that live and dead fractions obtained from MODIS using MESMA are well correlated with the reference data. Further, FPI computed using MESMA-based green vegetation fraction in lieu of RG was validated against historical fire occurrence data. MESMA-based FPI performs at a comparable level to the traditional NDVI-based FPI, but can do so using a single MODIS image rather than an extensive remote sensing time series as required for the RG approach. Finally this dissertation explores the potential of integrating gridded wind speed data obtained from the MM5 mesoscale numerical weather model in the FPI. A new fire susceptibility index, the Wind-Adjusted Fire Potential Index (WAFPI), was introduced. It modifies the FPI algorithm by integrating normalized wind speed. Validating WAFPI against historical wildfire events using

  2. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...... are the most significant in each case. We apply the Sobol method, which is a quantitative method that gives the percentage of the total output variance that each parameter accounts for. The most important parameter is found to be the energy release rate that explains 92% of the uncertainty in the calculated...... results for the period before thermal penetration (tp) has occurred. The analysis is also done for all combinations of two parameters in order to find the combination with the largest effect. The Sobol total for pairs had the highest value for the combination of energy release rate and area of opening...

  3. GIS and ANN model for landslide susceptibility mapping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Landslide hazard is as the probability of occurrence of apotentially damaging landslide phenomenon within specified period of time and within a given area. The susceptibility map provides the relative spatial probability of landslides occurrence. A study is presented of the application of GIS and artificial neural network model to landslide susceptibility mapping, with particular reference to landslides on natural terrain in this paper. The method has been applied to Lantau Island, the largest outlying island within the territory of Hong Kong. A three-level neural network model was constructed and trained by the back-propagate algorithm in the geographical database of the study area. The data in the database includes digital elevation modal and its derivatives, landslides distribution and their attributes, superficial geological maps, vegetation cover, the raingauges distribution and their 14 years 5-minute observation. Based on field inspection and analysis of correlation between terrain variables and landslides frequency, lithology, vegetation cover, slope radient, slope aspect, slope curvature, elevation, the characteristic value, the rainstorms corresponding to the landslide, and distance to drainage line are considered to be related to landslide usceptibility in this study. The artificial neural network is then coupled with the ArcView3.2 GIS software to produce the landslide susceptibility map, which classifies the susceptibility into three levels: low, moderate, and high. The results from this study indicate that GIS coupled with artificial nural network model is a flexible and powerful approach to identify the spatial probability of hazards.

  4. WRF fire simulation coupled with a fuel moisture model and smoke transport by WRF-Chem

    CERN Document Server

    Kochanski, Adam K; Mandel, Jan; Kim, Minjeong

    2012-01-01

    We describe two recent additions to WRF coupled with a fire spread model. Fire propagation is strongly dependent on fuel moisture, which in turn depends on the history of the atmosphere. We have implemented a equilibrium time-lag model of fuel moisture driven by WRF variables. The code allows the user to specify fuel parameters, with the defaults calibrated to the Canadian fire danger rating system for 10-hour fuel. The moisture model can run coupled with the atmosphere-fire model, or offline from WRF output to equilibrate the moisture over a period of time and to provide initial moisture conditions for a coupled atmosphere-fire-moisture simulation. The fire model also inserts smoke tracers into WRF-Chem to model the transport of fire emissions. The coupled model is available from OpenWFM.org. An earlier version of the fire model coupled with atmosphere is a part of WRF release.

  5. Application of Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho Vieira, Bianca; Martins, Tiago D.

    2017-04-01

    Shallow landslides and floods are the processes responsible for most material and environmental damages in Brazil. In the last decades, some landslides events induce a high number of deaths (e.g. Over 1000 deaths in one event) and incalculable social and economic losses. Therefore, the prediction of those processes is considered an important tool for land use planning tools. Among different methods the physically based landslide susceptibility models having been widely used in many countries, but in Brazil it is still incipient when compared to other ones, like statistical tools and frequency analyses. Thus, the main objective of this research was to assess the application of some Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil, identifying their main results, the efficiency of susceptibility mapping, parameters used and limitations of the tropical humid environment. In order to achieve that, it was evaluated SHALSTAB, SINMAP and TRIGRS models in some studies in Brazil along with the Geotechnical values, scales, DEM grid resolution and the results based on the analysis of the agreement between predicted susceptibility and the landslide scar's map. Most of the studies in Brazil applied SHALSTAB, SINMAP and to a lesser extent the TRIGRS model. The majority researches are concentrated in the Serra do Mar mountain range, that is a system of escarpments and rugged mountains that extends more than 1,500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, and regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements. Most part of these studies used conventional topographic maps with scales ranging from 1:2000 to 1:50000 and DEM-grid resolution between 2 and 20m. Regarding the Geotechnical and hydrological values, a few studies use field collected data which could produce more efficient results, as indicated by international literature. Therefore, even though they have enormous potential in the susceptibility mapping, even for comparison

  6. The impact of fires in the UK Met Office's Unified Model and the INFERNO interactive fire scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, S.

    2015-12-01

    Forest fires are a key interaction between the land and the atmosphere. Yet this interaction is often omitted from Earth System Models. We will present the efforts carried out within the UK Met Office: for both its Unified Model (UM8.4) and land surface model (JULES). These efforts have focused on diagnosing fire occurrence and impact on composition. We will present the schemes used for diagnostic fire weather indices, and INFERNO (INteractive Fires and Emissions algoRithm for Natural envirOnments). INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal to centennial scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. The scheme uses temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and soil moisture to simulate fuel flammability; once combined with ignitions, INFERNO diagnoses burnt area. Using JULES' carbon scheme, burnt area leads to fire emissions which are inputs to the model's chemistry and aerosol scheme (UKCA). We will show the coupled model performance in capturing burnt area and fire emissions and investigate the role of fires on atmospheric composition interannual variability (in particular CO, and aerosols).

  7. Linking Satellite-Derived Fire Counts to Satellite-Derived Weather Data in Fire Prediction Models to Forecast Extreme Fires in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westberg, D. J.; Soja, A. J.; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2009-12-01

    Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under climate change scenarios. Therefore to predict fire weather and ecosystem change, we must understand the factors that influence fire regimes and at what scale these are viable. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), developed by the Canadian Forestry Service, is used for this comparison, and it is calculated using local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. The FWI assesses daily forest fire burning potential. Large-scale FWI are calculated at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) using NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data. The GEOS-4 reanalysis weather data are 3-hourly interpolated to 1-hourly data at a 1ox1o resolution and the GPCP precipitation data are also at 1ox1o resolution. In previous work focusing on the fire season in Siberia in 1999 and 2002, we have shown the combination of GEOS-4 weather data and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data compares well to ground-based weather data when used as inputs for FWI calculation. The density and accuracy of Siberian surface station data can be limited, which leads to results that are not representative of the spatial reality. GEOS-4/GPCP-dervied FWI can serve to spatially enhance current and historic FWI, because these data are spatially and temporally consistency. The surface station and model reanalysis derived fire weather indices compared well spatially, temporally and quantitatively, and increased fire activity compares well with increasing FWI ratings. To continue our previous work, we statistically compare satellite-derived fire counts to FWI categories at

  8. Rare regions of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on Barabási-Albert networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ódor, Géza

    2013-04-01

    I extend a previous work to susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) models on weighted Barabási-Albert scale-free networks. Numerical evidence is provided that phases with slow, power-law dynamics emerge as the consequence of quenched disorder and tree topologies studied previously with the contact process. I compare simulation results with spectral analysis of the networks and show that the quenched mean-field (QMF) approximation provides a reliable, relatively fast method to explore activity clustering. This suggests that QMF can be used for describing rare-region effects due to network inhomogeneities. Finite-size study of the QMF shows the expected disappearance of the epidemic threshold λ(c) in the thermodynamic limit and an inverse participation ratio ~0.25, meaning localization in case of disassortative weight scheme. Contrarily, for the multiplicative weights and the unweighted trees, this value vanishes in the thermodynamic limit, suggesting only weak rare-region effects in agreement with the dynamical simulations. Strong corrections to the mean-field behavior in case of disassortative weights explains the concave shape of the order parameter ρ(λ) at the transition point. Application of this method to other models may reveal interesting rare-region effects, Griffiths phases as the consequence of quenched topological heterogeneities.

  9. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels;

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  10. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Karstensen, Claus; Condra, Thomas Joseph;

    2003-01-01

    A model for a ue gas boiler covering the ue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been dened for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2: a zone...... submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic- Equation system (DAE). Subsequently MatLab/Simulink has...... been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results an experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  11. The effects of wildfire on mortality and resources for an arboreal marsupial: resilience to fire events but susceptibility to fire regime change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological

  12. Coupled Atmosphere-Fire Simulations of Fireflux: Impacts of Model Resolution on Model Performance

    CERN Document Server

    Kochanski, Adam K; Jenkins, M A; Mandel, J; Beezley, J D

    2011-01-01

    The ability to forecast grass fire spread could be of a great importance for agencies making decisions about prescribed burns. However, the usefulness of the models used for fire-spread predictions is limited by the time required for completing the coupled atmosphere-fire simulations. In this study we analyze the sensitivity of a coupled model with respect to the vertical resolution of the atmospheric grid and the resolution of fire mesh that both affect computational performance of the model. Based on the observations of the plume properties recorded during the FireFlux experiment (Clements et al., 2007), we try to establish the optimal model configuration that provides realistic results for the least computational expense.

  13. Jet fire consequence modeling for high-pressure gas pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coccorullo, Ivano; Russo, Paola

    2016-12-01

    A simple and reliable approach for sizing the hazard area potentially affected by a jet fire as consequence of the failure of high-pressure pipeline is proposed. A release rate model, taking pipeline operation properties and source release properties into account, is coupled with SLAB dispersion model and point source radiation model to calculate the hazard distance. The hazard distance is set beyond the distance at which a low chance of fatality can occur to people exposed and a wooden structure is not expected to burn due to radiation heat of jet fire. The comparison between three gases with different physico-chemical properties (i.e. natural gas, hydrogen, ethylene) is shown. The influence of pipeline operating parameters, such as: pressure, pipeline diameter and length, hole size, on the hazard area for the three gases is evaluated. Finally, a simple correlation is proposed for calculating the hazard distance as function of these parameters.

  14. Temporal interactions facilitate endemicity in the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speidel, Leo; Klemm, Konstantin; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; Masuda, Naoki

    2016-07-01

    Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of both network structure and temporal dimensions. Theoretical approaches are much needed for identifying key factors that affect dynamics of epidemics. In particular, what factors make some temporal networks stronger media of infection than other temporal networks is under debate. We develop a theory to understand the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on arbitrary temporal networks, where each contact is used for a finite duration. We show that temporality of networks lessens the epidemic threshold such that infections persist more easily in temporal networks than in their static counterparts. We further show that the Lie commutator bracket of the adjacency matrices at different times is a key determinant of the epidemic threshold in temporal networks. The effect of temporality on the epidemic threshold, which depends on a data set, is approximately predicted by the magnitude of a commutator norm.

  15. On Fire regime modelling using satellite TM time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddi, F.; . Ghermandi, L.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfires can cause an environment deterioration modifying vegetation dynamics because they have the capacity of changing vegetation diversity and physiognomy. In semiarid regions, like the northwestern Patagonia, fire disturbance is also important because it could impact on the potential productivity of the ecosystem. There is reduction plant biomass and with that reducing the animal carrying capacity and/or the forest site quality with negative economics implications. Therefore knowledge of the fires regime in a region is of great importance to understand and predict the responses of vegetation and its possible effect on the regional economy. Studies of this type at a landscape level can be addressed using GIS tools. Satellite imagery allows detect burned areas and through a temporary analysis can be determined to fire regime and detecting changes at landscape scale. The study area of work is located on the east of the city of Bariloche including the San Ramon Ranch (22,000 ha) and its environs in the ecotone formed by the sub Antarctic forest and the patagonian steppe. We worked with multiespectral Landsat TM images and Landsat ETM + 30m spatial resolution obtained at different times. For the spatial analysis we used the software Erdas Imagine 9.0 and ArcView 3.3. A discrimination of vegetation types has made and was determined areas affected by fires in different years. We determined the level of change on vegetation induced by fire. In the future the use of high spatial resolution images combined with higher spectral resolution will allows distinguish burned areas with greater precision on study area. Also the use of digital terrain models derived from satellite imagery associated with climatic variables will allows model the relationship between them and the dynamics of vegetation.

  16. Phase transitions in cellular automata models of spatial susceptible-infected-resistant-susceptible epidemics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zheng Zhi-Zhen; Wang Ai-Ling

    2009-01-01

    Spatially explicit models have become widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study the persistence of populations. For simplicity, population dynamics is often analysed by using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) or partial differential equations (PDEs) in the one-dimensional (1D) space. An important question is to predict species extinction or persistence rate by mean of computer simulation based on the spatial model. Recently, it has been reported that stable turbulent and regular waves are persistent based on the spatial susceptible-infected-resistant-susceptible (SIRS) model by using the cellular automata (CA) method in the two-dimensional (2D) space [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101, 18246 (2004)]. In this paper, we address other important issues relevant to phase transitions of epidemic persistence. We are interested in assessing the significance of the risk of extinction in 1D space. Our results show that the 2D space can considerably increase the possibility of persistence of spread of epidemics when the degree distribution of the individuals is uniform, I.e. The pattern of 2D spatial persistence corresponding to extinction in a 1D system with the same parameters. The trade-offs of extinction and persistence between the infection period and infection rate are observed in the 1D case. Moreover, near the trade-off (phase transition) line, an independent estimation of the dynamic exponent can be performed, and it is in excellent agreement with the result obtained by using the conjectured relationship of directed percolation. We find that the introduction of a short-range diffusion and a long-range diffusion among the neighbourhoods can enhance the persistence and global disease spread in the space.

  17. A cellular automata model of epidemics of a heterogeneous susceptibility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jin Zhen; Liu Quan-Xing

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata (CA). In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host (susceptible) mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide the susceptible population into three groups according to the immunity of each individual based on the classical susceptible-infectedremoved (SIR) epidemic models, and consider the spread of an infectious disease transmitted by direct contact among humans and vectors that have not an incubation period to become infectious. We test the local stability and instability of the disease-free equilibrium by the spectrum radii of Jacobian. The simulation shows that the structure of the nearest neighbour size of the cell (or the degree of the scale-free networks) plays a very important role in the spread properties of infectious disease. The positive equilibrium of the infections versus the neighbour size follows the third power law if an endemic equilibrium point exists. Finally, we analyse the feature of the infection waves for the homogeneity and heterogeneous cases respectively.

  18. The Morris-Lecar neuron model embeds a leaky integrate-and-fire model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Greenwood, Priscilla

    2013-01-01

    We showthat the stochastic Morris–Lecar neuron, in a neighborhood of its stable point, can be approximated by a two-dimensional Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) modulation of a constant circular motion. The associated radial OU process is an example of a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model prior to firing...

  19. Modeling wildland fire propagation using a semi-physical network model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.K. Adou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a surface wildfire model which can be used to develop and test new firefighting strategies and land use planning practices. This model is simple, easy to implement and can predict the rate of fire spread, the fire contour and both burning and burned areas. It also incorporates weather conditions and land topography. The predictive capability of the model is partially assessed by comparison with data from laboratory-scale and prescribed burning experiments. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the most influential input model parameters controlling fire propagation.

  20. First-order fire effects models for land Management: Overview and issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    We give an overview of the science application process at work in supporting fire management. First-order fire effects models, such as those discussed in accompanying papers, are the building blocks of software systems designed for application to landscapes over time scales from days to centuries. Fire effects may be modeled using empirical, rule based, or process...

  1. Considerations in Scale-Modeling of Large Urban Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-11-15

    is inconsequential and that all molecular transport processes are unimportant). The nondimensional parameters to be preserved between the model and...fuel bed. Parker, Corlett and B. T. Lee [!3] also come to a similar conclusion based * on the following two points. First, in large fires, molecular ...to USDA Forest Service, Prepared by Instituto Nacional "de Tecnica Aeroespacial, Madrid, Spain, (May, 1967). "" 57. S.L. Lee and G.M. Hellman

  2. A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Li

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity has been developed for global simulations in the framework of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM in an Earth System Model (ESM. Burned area in a grid cell is estimated by the product of fire counts and average burned area of a fire. The scheme comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the fire occurrence part, fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability are calculated in order to capture the observed high burned area fraction in areas of high fire frequency and realize parameter calibration based on MODIS fire counts product. In the fire spread part, post-fire region of a fire is assumed to be elliptical in shape. Mathematical properties of ellipses and some mathematical derivations are applied to improve the equation and assumptions of an existing fire spread parameterization. In the fire impact part, trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning are estimated, which offers an interface with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol models in ESMs. In addition, flexible time-step length makes the new fire parameterization easily applied to various DGVMs.

    Global performance of the new fire parameterization is assessed by using an improved version of the Community Land Model version 3 with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM. Simulations are compared against the latest satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3 for 1997–2004. Results show that simulated global totals and spatial patterns of burned area and fire carbon emissions, regional totals and spreads of burned area, global annual burned area fractions for various vegetation types, and interannual variability of burned area are reasonable, and closer to GFED3 than CLM-DGVM simulations with the commonly used Glob-FIRM fire parameterization and the old fire module of CLM-DGVM. Furthermore, average error of simulated trace gas and aerosol

  3. A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Zeng, X. D.; Levis, S.

    2012-07-01

    A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity has been developed for global simulations in the framework of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in an Earth System Model (ESM). Burned area in a grid cell is estimated by the product of fire counts and average burned area of a fire. The scheme comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the fire occurrence part, fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability are calculated in order to capture the observed high burned area fraction in areas of high fire frequency and realize parameter calibration based on MODIS fire counts product. In the fire spread part, post-fire region of a fire is assumed to be elliptical in shape. Mathematical properties of ellipses and some mathematical derivations are applied to improve the equation and assumptions of an existing fire spread parameterization. In the fire impact part, trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning are estimated, which offers an interface with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol models in ESMs. In addition, flexible time-step length makes the new fire parameterization easily applied to various DGVMs. Global performance of the new fire parameterization is assessed by using an improved version of the Community Land Model version 3 with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM). Simulations are compared against the latest satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3) for 1997-2004. Results show that simulated global totals and spatial patterns of burned area and fire carbon emissions, regional totals and spreads of burned area, global annual burned area fractions for various vegetation types, and interannual variability of burned area are reasonable, and closer to GFED3 than CLM-DGVM simulations with the commonly used Glob-FIRM fire parameterization and the old fire module of CLM-DGVM. Furthermore, average error of simulated trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning

  4. Improving the representation of fire disturbance in dynamic vegetation models by assimilating satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzas, E. P.; Quegan, S.; Lomas, M.

    2015-03-01

    Fire provides an impulsive and stochastic pathway for carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to enter the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being of similar magnitude to Net Ecosystem Exchange in many biomes, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in General Circulation Models contain poor representations of fire behaviour and dynamics such as propagation and distribution of fire sizes. A model-independent methodology is developed which addresses this issue. Its focus is on the Arctic where fire is linked to permafrost dynamics and on occasion can release great amounts of carbon from carbon-rich organic soils. Connected Component Labeling is used to identify individual fire events across Canada and Russia from daily, low-resolution burned area satellite products, and the results are validated against historical data. This allows the creation of a fire database holding information on area burned and temporal evolution of fires in space and time. A method of assimilating the statistical distribution of fire area into a DVM whilst maintaining its Fire Return Interval is then described. The algorithm imposes a regional scale spatially dependent fire regime on a sub-scale spatially independent model (point model); the fire regime is described by large scale statistical distributions of fire intensity and spatial extent, and the temporal dynamics (fire return intervals) are determined locally. This permits DVMs to estimate many aspects of post-fire dynamics that cannot occur under their current representations of fire, as is illustrated by considering the evolution of land cover, biomass and Net Ecosystem Exchange after a fire.

  5. Improving the representation of fire disturbance in dynamic vegetation models by assimilating satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. P. Kantzas

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fire provides an impulsive and stochastic pathway for carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to enter the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being of similar magnitude to Net Ecosystem Exchange in many biomes, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs embedded in General Circulation Models contain poor representations of fire behaviour and dynamics such as propagation and distribution of fire sizes. A model-independent methodology is developed which addresses this issue. Its focus is on the Arctic where fire is linked to permafrost dynamics and on occasion can release great amounts of carbon from carbon-rich organic soils. Connected Component Labeling is used to identify individual fire events across Canada and Russia from daily, low-resolution burned area satellite products, and the results are validated against historical data. This allows the creation of a fire database holding information on area burned and temporal evolution of fires in space and time. A method of assimilating the statistical distribution of fire area into a DVM whilst maintaining its Fire Return Interval is then described. The algorithm imposes a regional scale spatially dependent fire regime on a sub-scale spatially independent model (point model; the fire regime is described by large scale statistical distributions of fire intensity and spatial extent, and the temporal dynamics (fire return intervals are determined locally. This permits DVMs to estimate many aspects of post-fire dynamics that cannot occur under their current representations of fire, as is illustrated by considering the evolution of land cover, biomass and Net Ecosystem Exchange after a fire.

  6. Identification of fire modeling issues based on an analysis of real events from the OECD FIRE database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermann, Dominik [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Brugg (Switzerland)

    2017-03-15

    Precursor analysis is widely used in the nuclear industry to judge the significance of events relevant to safety. However, in case of events that may damage equipment through effects that are not ordinary functional dependencies, the analysis may not always fully appreciate the potential for further evolution of the event. For fires, which are one class of such events, this paper discusses modelling challenges that need to be overcome when performing a probabilistic precursor analysis. The events used to analyze are selected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Fire Incidents Records Exchange (FIRE) Database.

  7. Modeling Anthropogenic Fire Occurrence in the Boreal Forest of China Using Logistic Regression and Random Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Futao Guo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Frequent and intense anthropogenic fires present meaningful challenges to forest management in the boreal forest of China. Understanding the underlying drivers of human-caused fire occurrence is crucial for making effective and scientifically-based forest fire management plans. In this study, we applied logistic regression (LR and Random Forests (RF to identify important biophysical and anthropogenic factors that help to explain the likelihood of anthropogenic fires in the Chinese boreal forest. Results showed that the anthropogenic fires were more likely to occur at areas close to railways and were significantly influenced by forest types. In addition, distance to settlement and distance to road were identified as important predictors for anthropogenic fire occurrence. The model comparison indicated that RF had greater ability than LR to predict forest fires caused by human activity in the Chinese boreal forest. High fire risk zones in the study area were identified based on RF, where we recommend increasing allocation of fire management resources.

  8. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landucci, Gabriele [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Chimica Industriale e Scienza dei Materiali, Universita di Pisa, via Diotisalvi n.2, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Molag, Menso [Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek TNO, Princetonlaan 6, 3584 CB Utrecht (Netherlands); Cozzani, Valerio, E-mail: valerio.cozzani@unibo.it [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, Alma Mater Studiorum - Universita di Bologna, Via Terracini 28 - 40131 Bologna (Italy)

    2009-12-15

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  9. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Cozzani, Valerio

    2009-12-15

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  10. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  11. Measurement of Fire Radiative Energy from Space and Implications for Fire-Disaster Monitoring and Smoke Emissions Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Measurement of fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from satellite provides a vital mechanism for distinguishing different strengths of fires. Analysis of 1-km resolution fire data, acquired globally by the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites from 2000 to 2006, showed instantaneous FRP values ranging between 0.02 MW and 1866 MW, to which simple thresholds can be applied to categorize fires by strength, in a similar fashion as the strengths of earthquakes and hurricanes. Analysis of regional mean FRP per unit area of land (FRP flux) shows that at peak fire season in certain regions, fires can be responsible for up to 0.2 W/m2 at peak time of day. When considered as the active fire contribution to the direct surface radiative forcing (RF) in the different fire regions, this order of magnitude of FRF fluxes is non negligible. It has been determined experimentally that the amount of FRE released by a fire over the course of its duration is directly proportional to the amount of biomass consumed by it. Furthermore, at the satellite observation scale, the rate of release of FRE (i.e. FRP) is proportional to the rate of biomass consumption, and that of emission of smoke particulates and eventually also other smoke constituents. Therefore, current research efforts are geared toward deriving simple parameterizations that will facilitate direct input of FRP measurements in models, not only to improve the accuracy of burned-biomass and smoke emissions estimations, but also to reduce the hitherto practiced heavy reliance on multiple indirect parameters with indeterminate uncertainties.

  12. Developments in modelling of thermal radiation from pool and jet fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, H.

    2016-01-01

    In the past decades, the standard approach in the modelling of consequences of pool and jet fires would be to describe these fires as tilted cylindrical shaped radiating flame surfaces, having a specific SEP (Surface Emissive Power). Some fine tuning on pool fires has been done by Rew and Hulbert in

  13. Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Robert E. Keane; Brigitte Dorner; Joseph Fall

    2007-01-01

    We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of...

  14. A data model for route planning in the case of forest fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Z.; Zlatanova, S.; Moreno, A.; Van Oosterom, P.J.M.; Toro, C.

    2013-01-01

    The ability to guide relief vehicles to safety and quickly pass through environments affected by fires is critical in fighting forest fires. In this paper, we focus on route determination in the case of forest fires, and propose a data model that supports finding paths among moving obstacles. This d

  15. Landslide susceptibility analysis using an artificial neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansor, Shattri; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Daud, Mohamed; Jamaludin, Normalina; Khuzaimah, Zailani

    2007-10-01

    This paper deals with landslide susceptibility analysis using an artificial neural network model for Cameron Highland, Malaysia. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys. Topographical/geological data and satellite images were collected and processed using GIS and image processing tools. There are ten landslide inducing parameters which are considered for the landslide hazards. These parameters are topographic slope, aspect, curvature and distance from drainage, all derived from the topographic database; geology and distance from lineament, derived from the geologic database; landuse from Landsat satellite images; soil from the soil database; precipitation amount, derived from the rainfall database; and the vegetation index value from SPOT satellite images. Landslide hazard was analyzed using landslide occurrence factors employing the logistic regression model. The results of the analysis were verified using the landslide location data and compared with logistic regression model. The accuracy of hazard map observed was 85.73%. The qualitative landslide susceptibility analysis was carried out using an artificial neural network model by doing map overlay analysis in GIS environment. This information could be used to estimate the risk to population, property and existing infrastructure like transportation network.

  16. Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

    2003-01-01

    The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

  17. Investigation of Fire Growth and Spread in a Model-Scale Railcar Using an Applied Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Kazemipour

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a potential hazard in public transportation facilities such as subways or road tunnels due to its contribution to high number of deaths. To provide an insight into fire development behavior in tunnels which can serve as the basis for emergency ventilation design, model-scale railcar fire is explored numerically in this research. Fire growth and its spread are investigated by analyzing the HRR curve as the representative of fire behavior in different stages. Fire development has been predicted through a new approach using an Arrhenius-based pyrolysis model, established to predict the decomposition behavior of solid flammable materials exposed to heat flux. Using this approach, model-scale railcar fire curve is obtained and compared with experimental data. Reasonable agreement is achieved in two important stages of flashover and fully developed fire, confirming the accuracy of the presented approach. Moreover, effects of railcar material type, amount of available air, and surrounding are also discussed. Detailed illustrations of physical phenomena and flow structures have been provided and justified with experimental findings for better description of railcar fire behavior. The presented approach can be further used in other applications such as investigation of fire spread in a compartment, studying fire spread from a burning vehicle to another and reconstruction of fire incidents.

  18. A Susceptible Mouse Model for Zika Virus Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowall, Stuart D; Graham, Victoria A; Rayner, Emma; Atkinson, Barry; Hall, Graham; Watson, Robert J; Bosworth, Andrew; Bonney, Laura C; Kitchen, Samantha; Hewson, Roger

    2016-05-01

    Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen which has recently spread beyond Africa and into Pacific and South American regions. Despite first being detected in 1947, very little information is known about the virus, and its spread has been associated with increases in Guillain-Barre syndrome and microcephaly. There are currently no known vaccines or antivirals against ZIKV infection. Progress in assessing interventions will require the development of animal models to test efficacies; however, there are only limited reports on in vivo studies. The only susceptible murine models have involved intracerebral inoculations or juvenile animals, which do not replicate natural infection. Our report has studied the effect of ZIKV infection in type-I interferon receptor deficient (A129) mice and the parent strain (129Sv/Ev) after subcutaneous challenge in the lower leg to mimic a mosquito bite. A129 mice developed severe symptoms with widespread viral RNA detection in the blood, brain, spleen, liver and ovaries. Histological changes were also striking in these animals. 129Sv/Ev mice developed no clinical symptoms or histological changes, despite viral RNA being detectable in the blood, spleen and ovaries, albeit at lower levels than those seen in A129 mice. Our results identify A129 mice as being highly susceptible to ZIKV and thus A129 mice represent a suitable, and urgently required, small animal model for the testing of vaccines and antivirals.

  19. The quark susceptibility in a generalized dynamical quasiparticle model

    CERN Document Server

    Berrehrah, Hamza; Bratkovskaya, Elena; Steinert, Thorsten

    2015-01-01

    The quark susceptibility $\\chi_q$ at zero and finite quark chemical potential provides a critical benchmark to determine the quark-gluon-plasma (QGP) degrees of freedom in relation to the results from lattice QCD (lQCD) in addition to the equation of state and transport coefficients. Here we extend the familiar dynamical-quasiparticle model (DQPM) to partonic propagators that explicitly depend on the three-momentum with respect to the partonic medium at rest in order to match perturbative QCD (pQCD) at high momenta. Within the extended dynamical-quasi-particle model (DQPM$^*$) we reproduce simultaneously the lQCD results for the quark number density and susceptibility and the QGP pressure at zero and finite (but small) chemical potential $\\mu_q$. The shear viscosity $\\eta$ and the electric conductivity $\\sigma_e$ from the extended quasiparticle model (DQPM$^*$) also turn out in close agreement with lattice results for $\\mu_q$ =0. The DQPM$^*$, furthermore, allows to evaluate the momentum $p$, temperature $T$ ...

  20. A Susceptible Mouse Model for Zika Virus Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart D Dowall

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is a mosquito-borne pathogen which has recently spread beyond Africa and into Pacific and South American regions. Despite first being detected in 1947, very little information is known about the virus, and its spread has been associated with increases in Guillain-Barre syndrome and microcephaly. There are currently no known vaccines or antivirals against ZIKV infection. Progress in assessing interventions will require the development of animal models to test efficacies; however, there are only limited reports on in vivo studies. The only susceptible murine models have involved intracerebral inoculations or juvenile animals, which do not replicate natural infection. Our report has studied the effect of ZIKV infection in type-I interferon receptor deficient (A129 mice and the parent strain (129Sv/Ev after subcutaneous challenge in the lower leg to mimic a mosquito bite. A129 mice developed severe symptoms with widespread viral RNA detection in the blood, brain, spleen, liver and ovaries. Histological changes were also striking in these animals. 129Sv/Ev mice developed no clinical symptoms or histological changes, despite viral RNA being detectable in the blood, spleen and ovaries, albeit at lower levels than those seen in A129 mice. Our results identify A129 mice as being highly susceptible to ZIKV and thus A129 mice represent a suitable, and urgently required, small animal model for the testing of vaccines and antivirals.

  1. A Susceptible Mouse Model for Zika Virus Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart D Dowall

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is a mosquito-borne pathogen which has recently spread beyond Africa and into Pacific and South American regions. Despite first being detected in 1947, very little information is known about the virus, and its spread has been associated with increases in Guillain-Barre syndrome and microcephaly. There are currently no known vaccines or antivirals against ZIKV infection. Progress in assessing interventions will require the development of animal models to test efficacies; however, there are only limited reports on in vivo studies. The only susceptible murine models have involved intracerebral inoculations or juvenile animals, which do not replicate natural infection. Our report has studied the effect of ZIKV infection in type-I interferon receptor deficient (A129 mice and the parent strain (129Sv/Ev after subcutaneous challenge in the lower leg to mimic a mosquito bite. A129 mice developed severe symptoms with widespread viral RNA detection in the blood, brain, spleen, liver and ovaries. Histological changes were also striking in these animals. 129Sv/Ev mice developed no clinical symptoms or histological changes, despite viral RNA being detectable in the blood, spleen and ovaries, albeit at lower levels than those seen in A129 mice. Our results identify A129 mice as being highly susceptible to ZIKV and thus A129 mice represent a suitable, and urgently required, small animal model for the testing of vaccines and antivirals.

  2. A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present, 1: Physical and quasi-physical models

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, A L

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behaviour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of a physical or quasi-physical nature. These models are based on the fundamental chemistry and/or physics of combustion and fire spread. Other papers in the series review models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but much less comprehensively.

  3. Turbulence radiation interaction modeling in hydrocarbon pool fire simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BURNS,SHAWN P.

    1999-12-01

    The importance of turbulent fluctuations in temperature and species concentration in thermal radiation transport modeling for combustion applications is well accepted by the radiation transport and combustion communities. A number of experimental and theoretical studies over the last twenty years have shown that fluctuations in the temperature and species concentrations may increase the effective emittance of a turbulent flame by as much as 50% to 300% over the value that would be expected from the mean temperatures and concentrations. With the possibility of such a large effect on the principal mode of heat transfer from a fire, it is extremely important for fire modeling efforts that turbulence radiation interaction be well characterized and possible modeling approaches understood. Toward this end, this report seeks to accomplish three goals. First, the principal turbulence radiation interaction closure terms are defined. Second, an order of magnitude analysis is performed to understand the relative importance of the various closure terms. Finally, the state of the art in turbulence radiation interaction closure modeling is reviewed. Hydrocarbon pool fire applications are of particular interest in this report and this is the perspective from which this review proceeds. Experimental and theoretical analysis suggests that, for this type of heavily sooting flame, the turbulent radiation interaction effect is dominated by the nonlinear dependence of the Planck function on the temperature. Additional effects due to the correlation between turbulent fluctuations in the absorptivity and temperature may be small relative to the Planck function effect for heavily sooting flames. This observation is drawn from a number of experimental and theoretical discussions. Nevertheless, additional analysis and data is needed to validate this observation for heavily sooting buoyancy dominated plumes.

  4. Agent-Based Evacuation Model Incorporating Fire Scene and Building Geometry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Fangqin; REN Aizhu

    2008-01-01

    A comprehensive description of the key factors affecting evacuations at fire scones is necessary for accurate simulations.An agent-based simulation model which incorporates the fire scene and the building geometry is developed using a fire dynamics simulator (FDS) based on the computational fluid dynamics and geographic information system (GIS) data to model the occupant response.The building entities are generated for FDS simulation while the spatial analysis on GIS data represents the occupant's knowledge of the building.The influence of the fire is based on a hazard assessment of the combustion products.The agent behavior and decisions are affected by environmental features and the fire field.A case study demonstrates that the evacuation model effectively simulates the coexistence and interactions of the major factors including occupants,building geometry,and fire disaster during the evacuation.The results can be used for the assessments of building designs regarding fire safety.

  5. Interactive modelling of forest fires and their impacts on atmospheric composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Folberth, G.

    2016-12-01

    Forest and wildland fires are a significant emission source of gases and aerosols to the atmosphere. In particular, biomass burning has been shown to be a significant driver of interannual variability and short-term climate forcings. Fires emit a wide variety of compounds to the atmosphere, from greenhouse gases to aerosols. Conversely, weather and climate also drive fire occurrence, creating potential feedbacks between climate, atmospheric composition, and fire. Here, we will present INFERNO (INteractive Fires and Emissions algoRithm for Natural envirOnments, described in Mangeon et al., 2016), a reduced complexity approach to global fire modelling coupled to interactive atmospheric composition in the UK Met Office's Unified Model. We will first show the coupled model's performance in capturing burnt area and fire emissions. We will then demonstrate how fires impact atmospheric composition in the global model for present-day scenarios: with our interactive scheme but also with reference datasets of global fire emissions, as well as in simulations assuming no fire emissions. In particular, we will investigate the role of fires on the mean present-day state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability of important atmospheric constituents (e.g., CO and aerosols).

  6. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildlife Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  7. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud

    2015-01-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  8. EXPERIMENTAL STUDY AND COMPUTATIONAL MODELLING OF GAS FIRED PULSE COMBUSTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Smajevic

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents some results of computational modelling of a gas-fired pulse combustor with aerodynamic valves. The development of the model followed experimental investigations during which the combustor geometry and operating conditions were defined. A simple 'tank and tube' approach was adopted by decomposing the combustor into several elements which were modelled separately, together with the interconnecting processes. The solution was obtained by marching integration in time over several cycles. The model reproduced reasonably well the recorded time history and averaged values of all basic parameters and is expected to complement the experiments aiming to develop a pulse combustor as a device for to cleaning the outer sides of power plants’ boiler heating surfaces during operation.

  9. Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model on Euclidean network

    CERN Document Server

    Khaleque, Abdul

    2012-01-01

    We consider the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on a Euclidean network in one dimension in which nodes at a distance $l$ are connected with probability $P(l) \\propto l^{-\\delta}$ in addition to nearest neighbors. The topology of the network changes as $\\delta$ is varied and its effect on the SIR model is studied. $R(t)$, the recovered fraction of population up to time $t$, and $\\tau$, the total duration of the epidemic are calculated for different values of the infection probability $q$ and $\\delta$. A threshold behavior is observed for all $\\delta$ up to $\\delta \\approx 2.0$; above the threshold value $q = q_c$, the saturation value $R_{sat}$ attains a finite value. Both $R_{sat}$ and $\\tau $ show scaling behavior in a finite system of size $N$; $R_{sat} \\sim N^{-\\beta/{\\tilde{\

  10. A mathematical model of the temperature in a coalfield fire area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Guo-dong; ZHOU Xin-quan; JIANG Jie

    2008-01-01

    The regular pattern of temperature change in a coalfield fire area while the fire is being extinguished was studied. To determine the extinguishing effect, a series of linear, logarithmic, polynomial or exponential mathematical regression models were constructed using the observed temperature data from the Xinjiang coalfield fire extinguishing project. The quadratic polynomial mathematical model had the best fit. A large coal fire oven was also used to simulate the coal fire extinguishing process. The same mathematical regression experiments were carried out on that observed data. The results verified that the quadratic polynomial ma-thematical model had the best fit. Therefore, a quadratic polynomial mathematical model is proposed to accurately model the tem-perature-time relationship in a coalfield fire area. An application to coalfield fire suppression shows that the deduced mathematical model can be used to predict the temperature conditions and to determine the effect of fire extinguishing, thereby helping to speed up the fire suppression process in the coalfield fire area.

  11. Susceptibility genes for schizophrenia: mutant models, endophenotypes and psychobiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Tuathaigh, Colm M P; Desbonnet, Lieve; Moran, Paula M; Waddington, John L

    2012-01-01

    Schizophrenia is characterised by a multifactorial aetiology that involves genetic liability interacting with epigenetic and environmental factors to increase risk for developing the disorder. A consensus view is that the genetic component involves several common risk alleles of small effect and/or rare but penetrant copy number variations. Furthermore, there is increasing evidence for broader, overlapping genetic-phenotypic relationships in psychosis; for example, the same susceptibility genes also confer risk for bipolar disorder. Phenotypic characterisation of genetic models of candidate risk genes and/or putative pathophysiological processes implicated in schizophrenia, as well as examination of epidemiologically relevant gene × environment interactions in these models, can illuminate molecular and pathobiological mechanisms involved in schizophrenia. The present chapter outlines both the evidence from phenotypic studies in mutant mouse models related to schizophrenia and recently described mutant models addressing such gene × environment interactions. Emphasis is placed on evaluating the extent to which mutant phenotypes recapitulate the totality of the disease phenotype or model selective endophenotypes. We also discuss new developments and trends in relation to the functional genomics of psychosis which might help to inform on the construct validity of mutant models of schizophrenia and highlight methodological challenges in phenotypic evaluation that relate to such models.

  12. Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System Failure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nino Prieto, Omar Ariosto; Colmenares Guillen, Luis Enrique

    2013-09-01

    In this paper the Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System is presented. This architecture is a legacy of the Detection System for Real-Time Physical Variables which is undergoing a patent process in Mexico. The methodologies for this design are the Structured Analysis for Real Time (SA- RT) [8], and the software is carried out by LACATRE (Langage d'aide à la Conception d'Application multitâche Temps Réel) [9,10] Real Time formal language. The system failures model is analyzed and the proposal is based on the formal language for the design of critical systems and Risk Assessment; AltaRica. This formal architecture uses satellites as input sensors and it was adapted from the original model which is a design pattern for physical variation detection in Real Time. The original design, whose task is to monitor events such as natural disasters and health related applications, or actual sickness monitoring and prevention, as the Real Time Diabetes Monitoring System, among others. Some related work has been presented on the Mexican Space Agency (AEM) Creation and Consultation Forums (2010-2011), and throughout the International Mexican Aerospace Science and Technology Society (SOMECYTA) international congress held in San Luis Potosí, México (2012). This Architecture will allow a Real Time Fire Satellite Monitoring, which will reduce the damage and danger caused by fires which consumes the forests and tropical forests of Mexico. This new proposal, permits having a new system that impacts on disaster prevention, by combining national and international technologies and cooperation for the benefit of humankind.

  13. Modelling genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis with family data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Cullen; Lin, Rui; Stankovich, James; Broadley, Simon A

    2013-01-01

    A genetic contribution to susceptibility is well established in multiple sclerosis (MS) and 57 associated genetic loci have been identified. We have undertaken a meta-analysis of familial risk studies with the aims of providing definitive figures for risks to relatives, performing a segregation analysis and estimating the proportion of the overall genetic risk that currently identified genes represent. We have used standard methods of meta-analysis combined with novel approaches to age adjustment to provide directly comparable estimates of lifetime risk. The overall recurrence risk for monozygotic twins was 18.2% and for siblings 2.7%. The recurrence risk for dizygotic twins was significantly higher than for siblings. The overall estimate of sibling relative risk (λ(S)) was 16.8. Risks for older relatives (parents, siblings, aunts, uncles and cousins) show a latitudinal gradient, in line with population risk. No latitudinal gradient for λ(S) was seen. Segregation analysis supports a multiplicative model of one locus of moderate effect with many loci of small effect. The estimated contribution of the 57 known MS loci is 18-24% of λ(S). This meta-analysis supports the notion of MS being in part the result of multiple genetic susceptibility factors and environmental factors.

  14. Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard R. Parresol; Joe H. Scott; Anne Andreu; Susan Prichard; Laurie Kurth

    2012-01-01

    Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or...

  15. A fire suppression model for forested range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq herds of caribou

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald C. Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A fire suppression model was developed for forested winter range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq (formerly Kaminuriak herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus in north-central Canada. The model is a balance between total protection, as voiced by some aboriginal people, and a let-burn policy for natural fires advocated by some ecologists. Elements in the model were caribou ecology, lichen recovery after fire, burn history, community priorities for caribou hunting, and fire cycle lengths. The percent ratio of current productive caribou habitat to the goal for that habitat determines whether fire should be suppressed in a specific area. The goals for productive caribou habitat, defined as forests older than 50 years, were scaled by fire cycle length and community priority ranking. Thus, the model is an example of co-management: traditional knowledge combined with science in a joint forum, the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq Caribou Management Board.

  16. Application of computational fluid dynamics modelling in the process of forensic fire investigation: problems and solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delémont, O; Martin, J-C

    2007-04-11

    Fire modelling has been gaining more and more interest into the community of forensic fire investigation. Despite an attractiveness that is partially justified, the application of fire models in that field of investigation rises some difficulties. Therefore, the understanding of the basic principles of the two main categories of fire models, the knowledge of their effective potential and their limitations are crucial for a valid and reliable application in forensic science. The present article gives an overview of the principle and basics that characterise the two kinds of fire models: zone models and field models. Whereas the first ones are developed on the basis of mathematical relation from empirical observations, such as stratification of fluid zones, and give a relatively broad view of mass and energy exchanges in an enclosure, the latter are based on fundamentals of fluid mechanics and represent the application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to fire scenarii. Consequently, the data that are obtained from these two categories of fire models differ in nature, quality and quantity. First used in a fire safety perspective, fire models are not easily applied to assess parts of forensic fire investigation. A suggestion is proposed for the role of fire modelling in this domain of competence: a new tool for the evaluation of alternative hypotheses of origin and cause by considering the dynamic development of the fire. An example of a real case where such an approach was followed is explained and the evaluation of the obtained results comparing to traces revealed during the on-site investigation is enlightened.

  17. Data Assimilation for Wildland Fires: Ensemble Kalman filters in coupled atmosphere-surface models

    OpenAIRE

    Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Coen, Janice L.; Kim, Minjeong

    2007-01-01

    Two wildland fire models are described, one based on reaction-diffusion-convection partial differential equations, and one based on semi-empirical fire spread by the level let method. The level set method model is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model. The regularized and the morphing ensemble Kalman filter are used for data assimilation.

  18. Data Assimilation for Wildland Fires: Ensemble Kalman filters in coupled atmosphere-surface models

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Coen, Janice L; Kim, Minjeong

    2007-01-01

    Two wildland fire models are described, one based on reaction-diffusion-convection partial differential equations, and one based on empirical fire spread by the level let method. The level set method model is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model. The regularized and the morphing ensemble Kalman filter are used for data assimilation.

  19. Structural fire risk of Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

    2017-04-01

    Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by

  20. Development of a Base Model for the New Fire PSA Training

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kilyoo; Kang, Daeil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Wee Kyong; Do, Kyu Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    US NRC/EPRI issued a new fire PSA method represented by NUREG/CR 6850, and have been training many operators and inspectors to widely spread the new method. However, there is a limitation in time and efficiency for many foreigners, who generally have communication problem, to participate in the EPRI/NRC training to learn the new method. Since it is about time to introduce the new fire PSA method as a regulatory requirement for the fire protection in Korea, a simple and easy-understandable base model for the fire PSA training is required, and KAERI-KINS is jointly preparing the base model for the new fire PSA training. This paper describes how the base model is developed. Using an imaginary simple NPP, a base model of fire PSA following the new fire PSA method was developed in two ways from the internal PSA model. Since we have the base model and know the process of making the fire PSA model, the training for the new fire PSA method can be in detail performed in Korea.

  1. Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

    2015-04-01

    Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

  2. The Feasibility of Multiscale Modeling of Tunnel Fires Using FDS 6

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Colella, Francesco; Rein, Guillermo

    2014-01-01

    6. However, the simplifications that are made in this work require further investigation in order to take full advantage of the potential of this computational method. INTRODUCTION Multiscale modeling for tunnel flows and fires has previously been studied using RANS general purpose CFD software......-dimensional quantity. The present study aimed to analyze whether or not the multiscale modeling approach for tunnel fires could be successfully applied in Fire Dynamics Simulator 6 (FDS6), an open source, fire-specific CFD software [4] that is easily accessible to modeling specialists. METHOD The implementation...

  3. Fire safety analysis of the Crystal palace based on optimized BIM model

    OpenAIRE

    Semič, Dejan

    2016-01-01

    This master's thesis comprehensively explores fire safety in high-rise buildings. A fire safety analysis was performed on a model of the Crystal Palace skyscraper, which, at 89 meters, is the tallest building in Slovenia today (2016). A BIM model of the entire building was generated (Archicad) to be used with the software for fire (PyroSim) and evacuation analysis (Pathfinder). The BIM model of the building was optimized in a way it could be directly imported into the software for fire and...

  4. QCD topological susceptibility from the nonlocal chiral quark model

    CERN Document Server

    Nam, Seung-il

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the QCD topological susceptibility $\\chi_t$ by using the nonlocal chiral quark model (NL$\\chi$QM). This model is based on the liquid instanton QCD-vacuum configuration in which $\\mathrm{SU}(3)$ flavor symmetry is explicitly broken by the current quark mass $(m_{u,d},m_s)\\approx(5,135)$ MeV. To compute $\\chi_t$, the local topological charge density operator $Q_t(x)$ is derived from the effective partition function of NL$\\chi$QM. We take into account the contributions from the leading-order (LO) ones $\\sim\\mathcal{O}(N_c)$ in the $1/N_c$ expansion. We also verify that the analytical expression of $\\chi_t$ in NL$\\chi$QM satisfy the Witten-Veneziano (WV) and the Leutwyler-Smilga (LS) formulae. Once the average instanton size and inter-instanton distance are fixed with $\\bar{\\rho}=1/3$ fm and $\\bar{R}=1$ fm, respectively, all the associated model parameters are all determined self-consistently within the model, including the $\\eta$ and $\\eta'$ weak decay constants. We obtain the results such as $F_{...

  5. QCD topological susceptibility from the nonlocal chiral quark model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Seung-Il; Kao, Chung-Wen

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) topological susceptibility χ by using the semi-bosonized nonlocal chiral-quark model (SB-NLχQM) for the leading large- N c contributions. This model is based on the liquid-instanton QCD-vacuum configuration, in which SU(3) flavor symmetry is explicitly broken by the finite current-quark mass ( m u,d, m s) ≈ (5, 135) MeV. To compute χ, we derive the local topological charge-density operator Q t( x) from the effective action of SB-NLχQM. We verify that the derived expression for χ in our model satisfies the Witten- Veneziano (WV) and the Leutwyler-Smilga (LS) formulae, and the Crewther theorem in the chiral limit by construction. Once the average instanton size and the inter-instanton distance are fixed with ρ¯ = 1/3 fm and R¯ = 1 fm, respectively, all the other parameters are determined self-consistently within the model. We obtain χ = (167.67MeV)4, which is comparable with the empirical value χ = (175±5MeV)4 whereas it turns out that χ QL = (194.30MeV)4 in the quenched limit. Thus, we conclude that the value of χ will be reduced around 10 20% by the dynamical-quark contribution.

  6. Externally Fired micro-Gas Turbine: Modelling and experimental performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traverso, Alberto; Massardo, Aristide F. [Thermochemical Power Group, Dipartimento di Macchine, Sistemi Energetici e Trasporti, Universita di Genova, Genova (Italy); Scarpellini, Riccardo [Ansaldo Ricerche s.r.l., Genova (Italy)

    2006-11-15

    This work presents the steady-state and transient performance obtained by an Externally Fired micro-Gas Turbine (EFmGT) demonstration plant. The plant was designed by Ansaldo Ricerche (ARI) s.r.l. and the Thermochemical Power Group (TPG) of the Universita di Genova, using the in-house TPG codes TEMP (Thermoeconomic Modular Program) and TRANSEO. The plant was based on a recuperated 80kW micro-gas turbine (Elliott TA-80R), which was integrated with the externally fired cycle at the ARI laboratory. The first goal of the plant construction was the demonstration of the EFmGT control system. The performance obtained in the field can be improved in the near future using high-temperature heat exchangers and apt external combustors, which should allow the system to operate at the actual micro-gas turbine inlet temperature (900-950{sup o}C). This paper presents the plant layout and the control system employed for regulating the microturbine power and rotational speed. The experimental results obtained by the pilot plant in early 2004 are shown: the feasibility of such a plant configuration has been demonstrated, and the control system has successfully regulated the shaft speed in all the tests performed. Finally, the plant model in TRANSEO, which was formerly used to design the control system, is shown to accurately simulate the plant behaviour both at steady-state and transient conditions. (author)

  7. Air pollution forecasting by coupled atmosphere-fire model WRF and SFIRE with WRF-Chem

    CERN Document Server

    Kochanski, Adam K; Mandel, Jan; Clements, Craig B

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution regulations have emerged as a dominant obstacle to prescribed burns. Thus, forecasting the pollution caused by wildland fires has acquired high importance. WRF and SFIRE model wildland fire spread in a two-way interaction with the atmosphere. The surface heat flux from the fire causes strong updrafts, which in turn change the winds and affect the fire spread. Fire emissions, estimated from the burning organic matter, are inserted in every time step into WRF-Chem tracers at the lowest atmospheric layer. The buoyancy caused by the fire then naturally simulates plume dynamics, and the chemical transport in WRF-Chem provides a forecast of the pollution spread. We discuss the choice of wood burning models and compatible chemical transport models in WRF-Chem, and demonstrate the results on case studies.

  8. Same ammo, different weapons: enzymatic extracts from two apple genotypes with contrasted susceptibilities to fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) differentially convert phloridzin and phloretin in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaucher, Matthieu; Dugé de Bernonville, Thomas; Guyot, Sylvain; Dat, James F; Brisset, Marie-Noëlle

    2013-11-01

    The necrogenic bacterium Erwinia amylovora responsible for the fire blight disease causes cell death in apple tissues to enrich intercellular spaces with nutrients. Apple leaves contain large amounts of dihydrochalcones (DHCs), including phloridzin and its aglycone phloretin. Previous work showed an important decrease in the constitutive DHCs stock in infected leaves, probably caused by transformation reactions during the infection process. At least two flavonoid transformation pathways have been described so far: deglucosylation and oxidation. The aim of the present study was to determine whether DHCs are differentially converted in two apple genotypes displaying contrasted susceptibilities to the disease. Different analyses were performed: i) enzymatic activity assays in infected leaves, ii) identification/quantification of end-products obtained after in vitro enzymatic reactions with DHCs, iii) evaluation of the bactericidal activity of end-products. The results of the enzymatic assays showed that deglucosylation was dominant over oxidation in the susceptible genotype MM106 while the opposite was observed in the resistant genotype Evereste. These data were confirmed by LC-UV/Vis-MS analysis of in vitro reaction mixtures, especially because higher levels of o-quinoid oxidation products of phloretin were measured by using the enzymatic extracts of Evereste infected leaves. Their presence correlated well with a strong bactericidal activity of the reaction mixtures. Thus, our results suggest that a differential transformation of DHCs occur in apple genotypes with a potential involvement in the establishment of the susceptibility or the resistance to fire blight, through the release of glucose or of highly bactericidal compounds respectively.

  9. SPITFIRE-2: an improved fire module for Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pfeiffer

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases, including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. Assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales requires the linkage of process-based fire modeling with vegetation modeling using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs. Here we present a new fire module, SPITFIRE-2, and an update to the LPJ-DGVM that includes major improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behavior, and the effect of fire on vegetation is simulated. The new fire module includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types, as well as a simple scheme to model crown fires. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the way in which the relationship between humans and fire are different between hunter-gatherers, obligate pastoralists, and farmers. Where and when available, we evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing based estimates of burned area. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process, e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest, our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over previous models. With its unique properties of being able to simulate preindustrial fire, the new module we present here is particularly well suited for the investigation of climate-human-fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales.

  10. SPITFIRE-2: an improved fire module for Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, M.; Kaplan, J. O.

    2012-08-01

    Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases, including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. Assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales requires the linkage of process-based fire modeling with vegetation modeling using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Here we present a new fire module, SPITFIRE-2, and an update to the LPJ-DGVM that includes major improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behavior, and the effect of fire on vegetation is simulated. The new fire module includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types, as well as a simple scheme to model crown fires. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the way in which the relationship between humans and fire are different between hunter-gatherers, obligate pastoralists, and farmers. Where and when available, we evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing based estimates of burned area. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process, e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest, our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over previous models. With its unique properties of being able to simulate preindustrial fire, the new module we present here is particularly well suited for the investigation of climate-human-fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales.

  11. Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Large Fire Size, Counts, and Intensities Using the Large Fire Simulator (FSim)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, K. L.; Haas, J. R.; Finney, M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in climate can be expected to cause changes in wildfire activity due to a combination of shifts in weather (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) and vegetation. Changes in vegetation could include type conversions, altered forest structure, and shifts in species composition, the effects of which could be mitigated or exacerbated by management activities. Further, changes in suppression response and effectiveness may alter potential wildfire activity, as well as the consequences of wildfire. Feedbacks among these factors are extremely complex and uncertain. The ability to anticipate changes driven by fire weather (largely outside of human control) can lead to development of fire and fuel management strategies aimed at mitigating current and future risk. Therefore, in this study we focus on isolating the effects of climate-induced changes in weather on wildfire activity. Specifically, we investigated the effect of changes in weather on fire activity in the Canadian Rockies ecoregion, which encompasses Glacier National Park and several large wilderness areas to the south. To model the ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires, we used the Large Fire Simulator (FSim), which we coupled with current and projected future climatic conditions. Weather streams were based on data from 14 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 45 and 85 for the years 2040-2060. While all GCMs indicate increases in temperature for this area, which would be expected to exacerbate fire activity, precipitation predictions for the summer wildfire season are more variable, ranging from a decrease of approximately 50 mm to an increase of approximately 50 mm. Windspeeds are generally predicted to decrease, which would reduce rates of spread and fire intensity. The net effect of these weather changes on the size, number, and intensity

  12. Spatial modeling of fires: a predictive tool for La Primavera Forest, Jalisco Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Luis Ibarra-Montoya

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of various elements of socioeconomic, political and cultural nature, influenced by landscape and climatic factors, are important aspects of fire regimes. Space models that integrate these elements and factors help to more accurately predict potential fire areas. The Protected Area Wildlife La Primavera (APFFLP is the main regulator of the climate of the Guadalajara metropolitan area, and forest fires frequently occur there. These represent a challenge for science and technology to develop methodologies that help predict forest fires. This study involves the construction of a spatial model that helps identify potential areas of fire in that area. The model integrates meteorological variables, landscape, fuels, anthropogenic and / or causality, and historical occurrences of fires during the period 1998-2012. According to the model, the variables that determine the areas of greatest fire potential are: slope (landscape, relative humidity (weather, vegetation type (causality and land use (anthropogenic. The model predicts a large area with high potential for fire, located in the central and northwest APFFLP polygon; also, there are small, isolated potential zones in the eastern part of the polygon. The information developed by this study could support the generation of local risk maps, thereby optimizing the actions of fire management and restoration of the La Primavera forest.

  13. Multiple phase transitions of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Mata, Angélica S

    2014-01-01

    We show that the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic dynamics running on the top of networks with a power law degree distribution can exhibit multiple phase transitions. Three main transitions involving different mechanisms responsible by sustaining the epidemics are identified: A short-term epidemics concentrated around the most connected vertex; a long-term (asymptotically stable) localized epidemics with a vanishing threshold; and an endemic phase occurring at a finite threshold. The different transitions are suited through different mean-field approaches. We finally show that the multiple transitions are due to the activations of different domains of the network that are observed in rapid (singular) variations of both stationary density of infected vertices and the participation ratio against the infection rate.

  14. A comparative numerical study of turbulence models for the simulation of fire incidents: Application in ventilated tunnel fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos G. Stokos

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to compare the overall performance of two turbulence models used for the simulation of fire scenarios in ventilated tunnels. Two Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes turbulence models were used; the low-Re k–ω SST and the standard k–ε model with wall functions treatment. Comparison was conducted on two different fire scenarios. The varied parameters were the heat release rate and the ventilation rate. Results predicted by the two turbulence models were also compared to the results produced from the commercial package Ansys Fluent. Quite faster simulations were performed using the k–ε turbulence model with wall functions and our findings, as to the basic characteristics of smoke movement, were in good agreement with Ansys Fluent ones.

  15. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-BURN Subsystem, part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    1986-01-01

    Describes BURN Subsystem, Part 1, the operational fire behavior prediction subsystem of the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system. The manual covers operation of the computer program, assumptions of the mathematical models used in the calculations, and application of the predictions.

  16. Relation Between Chiral Susceptibility and Solutions of Gap Equation in Nambu--Jona-Lasinio Model

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Y; Liu, Y; Yuan, W; Chang, Lei; Liu, Yu-xin; Yuan, Wei; Zhao, Yue

    2006-01-01

    We study the solutions of the gap equation, the thermodynamic potential and the chiral susceptibility in and beyond the chiral limit at finite chemical potential in the Nambu--Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model. We give an explicit relation between the chiral susceptibility and the thermodynamic potential in the NJL model. We find that the chiral susceptibility is a quantity being able to represent the furcation of the solutions of the gap equation and the concavo-convexity of the thermodynamic potential in NJL model. It indicates that the chiral susceptibility can identify the stable state and the possibility of the chiral phase transition in NJL model.

  17. Tunnel fire testing and modeling the Morgex North tunnel experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Borghetti, Fabio; Gandini, Paolo; Frassoldati, Alessio; Tavelli, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    This book aims to cast light on all aspects of tunnel fires, based on experimental activities and theoretical and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. In particular, the authors describe a transient full-scale fire test (~15 MW), explaining how they designed and performed the experimental activity inside the Morgex North tunnel in Italy. The entire organization of the experiment is described, from preliminary evaluations to the solutions found for management of operational difficulties and safety issues. This fire test allowed the collection of different measurements (temperature, air velocity, smoke composition, pollutant species) useful for validating and improving CFD codes and for testing the real behavior of the tunnel and its safety systems during a diesel oil fire with a significant heat release rate. Finally, the fire dynamics are compared with empirical correlations, CFD simulations, and literature measurements obtained in other similar tunnel fire tests. This book will be of interest to all ...

  18. Computational Modeling of Tangentially Fired Boiler (I) Models, Flow Field and Temperature Profiles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this work, an Eulerian/Lagrangian approach has been employed to investigate numerically the flow characteristics, heat transfer and combustion in a tangentially fired furnace. The RNG (Re-normalization group) k-e model and a new method for cell face velocity interpolation based on a non-staggered grid system are employed. To avoid pseudo-diffusion that is significant in modeling tangentially fired furnaces, attempts are made at improving the differential volume scheme. Some new developments on turbulent diffusion of particles are also taken into account. Thus, computational accuracy is improved substantially.

  19. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  20. INFERNO, a simple approach for interactive fires and their emissions within the Met Office Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, Stephane; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Folberth, Gerd

    2015-04-01

    Forest fires remain a crucial element of the Earth system, affecting and affected by the biosphere and the atmosphere. In particular emissions of trace gases (CO2, CO, NOx...) from forest fires can affect radiative forcing as well as atmospheric composition, similarly aerosols such as Black Carbon (also a strong sunlight absorber) and Organic Carbon emitted by fires can participate in cloud droplet nucleation, contributing to the aerosol indirect effect. Global estimates of fire emissions have greatly improved over the last decade, mainly through the developments in satellite observations. However, such estimates remain constrained to the recent satellite observational period; to study fires under past and future climates one has to resort to models. We will present the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) scheme for the Met Office's Unified Model, which builds on previous work for the GISS climate model. We start from simulated fire counts using proxies for flammability (meteorology and vegetation), ignitions and fire suppression. We then extend this parameterisation to predict burnt area, burnt biomass and subsequent emissions. This climate-sensitive parameterisation utilises temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and vegetation modelling (biomass and leaf area index) to model flammability. Ignitions depend on population density and lightning strikes. Of all these variables, only population density needs to be prescribed, hence INFERNO can be run interactively within a coupled earth system model. Our approach is also distinct owing to its simplicity and is computationally inexpensive, a necessary characteristic as it is aimed to run interactively over climatological timescales. The performance of this scheme is assessed against the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED); early analysis shows this new approach effectively captures the spatial and inter-annual variability of burnt area and fire emissions of CO2 and CO

  1. Computational fluid dynamics in fire engineering theory, modelling and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Yuen, Kwok Kit

    2009-01-01

    Fire and combustion presents a significant engineering challenge to mechanical, civil and dedicated fire engineers, as well as specialists in the process and chemical, safety, buildings and structural fields. We are reminded of the tragic outcomes of 'untenable' fire disasters such as at King's Cross underground station or Switzerland's St Gotthard tunnel. In these and many other cases, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is at the forefront of active research into unravelling the probable causes of fires and helping to design structures and systems to ensure that they are less likely in the f

  2. The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Thonicke

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore spatial and temporal patterns of fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated. Overall SPITFIRE produces realistic simulations of spatial and temporal patterns of fire under modern conditions and of the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace greenhouse gases and aerosols.

  3. Impacts of Boreal Forest Fires and Post-Fire Succession on Energy Budgets and Climate in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, B. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Bonan, G. B.

    2011-12-01

    Vegetation compositions of boreal forests are determined largely by recovery patterns after large-scale disturbances, the most notable of which is wildfire. Forest compositions exert large controls on regional energy and greenhouse gas budgets by affecting surface albedo, net radiation, turbulent energy fluxes, and carbon stocks. Impacts of boreal forest fires on climate are therefore products of direct fire effects, including charred surfaces and emitted aerosols and greenhouse gasses, and post-fire vegetation succession, which affects carbon and energy exchange for many decades after the initial disturbance. Climate changes are expected to be greatest at high latitudes, leading many to project increases in boreal forest fires. While numerous studies have documented the effects of post-fire landscape on energy and gas budgets in boreal forests, to date no continental analysis using a coupled model has been performed. In this study we quantified the effects of boreal forest fires and post-fire succession on regional and global climate using model experiments in the Community Earth System Model. We used 20th century climate data and MODIS vegetation continuous fields and land cover classes to identify boreal forests across North America and Eurasia. Historical fire return intervals were derived from a regression approach utilizing the Canadian and Alaskan Large Fire Databases, the Global Fire Emissions Database v3, and land cover and climate data. Succession trajectories were derived from the literature and MODIS land cover over known fire scars. Major improvements in model-data comparisons of long-term energy budgets were observed by prescribing post-fire vegetation succession. Global simulations using historical and future burn area scenarios highlight the potential impacts on climate from changing fire regimes and provide motivation for including vegetation succession in coupled simulations.

  4. STUDY ON FOREST FIRE DANGER MODEL WITHREMOTE SENSING BASED ON GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real-time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire dsnger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.

  5. Historical and future fire occurrence (1850 to 2100) simulated in CMIP5 Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloster, Silvia; Lasslop, Gitta

    2017-03-01

    Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently integrated fire processes in their vegetation model components to account for fire as an important disturbance process for vegetation dynamics and agent in the land carbon cycle. The present study analyses the performance of ESMs that participated in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in simulating historical and future fire occurrence. The global present day (1981 to 2005) burned area simulated in the analysed ESMs ranges between 149 and 208Mha, which is substantially lower than the most recent observation based estimate of 399Mha (GFEDv4s averaged over the time period 1997 to 2015). Simulated global fire carbon emissions, however, are with 2.0PgC/year to 2.7PgC/year on the higher end compared to the GFEDv4s estimate of 2.2PgC/year. Regionally, largest differences are found for Africa. Over the historical period (1850 to 2005) changes in simulated fire carbon emissions range between an increase of +43% and a decrease of -35%. For the future (2005 to 2100) we analysed the CMIP5 simulations following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 26, 45, and 85, for which the strongest changes in global fire carbon emissions simulated in the single ESMs amount to +8%, +52% and +58%, respectively. Overall, however, there is little agreement between the single ESMs on how fire occurrence changed over the past or will change in the future. Furthermore, contrasting simulated changes in fire carbon emissions and changes in annual mean precipitation shows no emergent pattern among the different analysed ESMs on the regional or global scale. This indicates differences in the single fire model representations that should be subject of upcoming fire model intercomparison studies. The increasing information derived from observational datasets (charcoal, ice-cores, satellite, inventories) will help to further constrain the trajectories of fire models.

  6. Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Using the Data Mining Models Artificial Neural Network and Boosted Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Joo Oh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present some potential applications of sophisticated data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN and boosted tree (BT, for landslide susceptibility modeling in the Yongin area, Korea. Initially, landslide inventory was detected from visual interpretation using digital aerial photographic maps with a high resolution of 50 cm taken before and after the occurrence of landslides. The debris flows were randomly divided into two groups: training and validation sets with a 50:50 proportion. Additionally, 18 environmental factors related to landslide occurrence were derived from the topography, soil, and forest maps. Subsequently, the data mining techniques were applied to identify the influence of environmental factors on landslide occurrence of the training set and assess landslide susceptibility. Finally, the landslide susceptibility indexes from ANN and BT were compared with a validation set using a receiver operating characteristics curve. The slope gradient, topographic wetness index, and timber age appear to be important factors in landslide occurrence from both models. The validation result of ANN and BT showed 82.25% and 90.79%, which had reasonably good performance. The study shows the benefit of selecting optimal data mining techniques in landslide susceptibility modeling. This approach could be used as a guideline for choosing environmental factors on landslide occurrence and add influencing factors into landslide monitoring systems. Furthermore, this method can rank landslide susceptibility in urban areas, thus providing helpful information when selecting a landslide monitoring site and planning land-use.

  7. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  8. Historic global biomass burning emissions based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li,Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao

    2017-01-01

    Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visi...

  9. A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, A L

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behaviour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature. These models are based solely on the statistical analysis of experimentally obtained data with or without some physical framework for the basis of the relations. Other papers in the series review models of a physical or quasi-physical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. The main relations of empirical models are that of wind speed and fuel moisture content with rate of forward spread. Comparisons are made of the different functional relationships selected by various authors for these variables.

  10. Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

  11. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar

    2014-01-01

    Fuel consumption specifies the amount of vegetative biomass consumed during wildland fire. It is a two-stage process of pyrolysis and combustion that occurs simultaneously and at different rates depending on the characteristics and condition of the fuel, weather, topography, and in the case of prescribed fire, ignition rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic...

  12. Development of customized fire behavior fuel models for boreal forests of northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhi Wei; He, Hong Shi; Chang, Yu; Liu, Zhi Hua; Chen, Hong Wei

    2011-12-01

    Knowledge of forest fuels and their potential fire behavior across a landscape is essential in fire management. Four customized fire behavior fuel models that differed significantly in fuels characteristics and environmental conditions were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis based on fuels data collected across a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China. Fuel model I represented the dense and heavily branched Pinus pumila shrubland which has significant fine live woody fuels. These forests occur mainly at higher mountain elevations. Fuel model II is applicable to forests dominated by Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana occurring in native forests on hill slopes or at low mountain elevations. This fuel model was differentiated from other fuel models by higher herbaceous cover and lower fine live woody loading. The primary coniferous forests dominated by Larix gmelini and Pinus sylvestris L. var. mongolica were classified as fuel model III and fuel model IV. Those fuel models differed from one another in average cover and height of understory shrub and herbaceous layers as well as in aspect. The potential fire behavior for each fuel model was simulated with the BehavePlus5.0 fire behavior prediction system. The simulation results indicated that the Pinus pumila shrubland fuels had the most severe fire behavior for the 97th percentile weather condition, and had the least severe fire behavior under 90th percentile weather condition. Fuel model II presented the least severe fire potential across weather conditions. Fuel model IV resulted in greater fire severity than Fuel model III across the two weather scenarios that were examined.

  13. Fire emissions simulated by prescribing burned area observations in a global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Kloster, Silvia

    2014-05-01

    The emissions of trace gases and aerosols from large vegetation fires into the atmosphere have an important climate impact. In this study we integrate observed burned area into a global vegetation model to derive global fire emissions. A global continuous burned area products provided by GFED (Global Fire Emissions Dataset) were obtained from MODIS (and pre-MODIS) satellites and are available for the time period 1997-2011. We integrate the global burned area product into the global vegetation model JSBACH, a land part of the Earth-System model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. JSBACH simulates land biomass in terms of carbon, which can be combined with the satellite burned area information to derive fire carbon emissions. Some assumptions on fire fuel consumptions have to be made during the integration of satellite burned area into the JSBACH. This includes processes such as tree mortality and combustion completeness, i.e. how much of the vegetation biomass gets combusted during a fire. Partially, this information can be also obtained from measurements. In this study we follow closely the approach of GFED, incorporating also GFED supplemental information, to simulate fuel consumption in JSBACH. And we compare simulated by this approach fire carbon emissions with the fire emissions from GFED. Global vegetation models often use prescribed land cover maps. The simulated in the JSBACH vegetation biomass and thus the simulated fire carbon emissions critically depend on the land cover distribution. In our study we derive fire carbon emissions using two different land cover parameterizations, based on two different satellite datasets. We will present the results obtained from simulations using the JSBACH standard MODIS based vegetation distribution and compare them to the results derived using the recently released ESA CCI land cover satellite product to demonstrate the sensitivity of simulated fire carbon emissions to the underlying land cover

  14. Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

    2014-05-01

    Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

  15. Do you BEHAVE? - Application of the BehavePlus fire modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pat Andrews

    2010-01-01

    The BehavePlus fire modeling system is the successor to BEHAVE, which was first used in the field in 1984. It is public domain software, available for free use on personal computers. Information on user communities and fire management applications can be useful in designing next generation systems. Several sources of information about BehavePlus are summarized to...

  16. Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Moghaddas; B.M. Collins; K. Menning; E.E.Y. Moghaddas; S.L. Stephens

    2010-01-01

    Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection...

  17. Evaluation of wildland fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire-atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy-Cancellieri, V.; Augustin, P.; Filippi, J. B.; Mari, C.; Fourmentin, M.; Bosseur, F.; Morandini, F.; Delbarre, H.

    2014-03-01

    Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterise the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire-atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently subject to wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterised by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycentre technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the lidar. The simulation was performed using a mesoscale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire), taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycentre was systematically below the barycentre derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosol particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from

  18. Evaluation of vegetation fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire-atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy-Cancellieri, V.; Augustin, P.; Filippi, J. B.; Mari, C.; Fourmentin, M.; Bosseur, F.; Morandini, F.; Delbarre, H.

    2013-08-01

    Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterize the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire-atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently concern by wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using Lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterized by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycenter technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the Lidar. The simulation was performed using a meso-scale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire) taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycenter was systematically below the barycenter derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosols particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from

  19. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: An Online Database to Support Post-fire Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. E.; Russel, A. M.; Billmire, M.; Endsley, K.; Elliot, W. E.; Robichaud, P. R.; MacDonald, L. H.; Renschler, C. S.

    2013-12-01

    Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess risks posed by post-fire runoff and erosion due to fire-induced changes in soil properties and the loss of surface cover. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate risks to downstream areas due to flooding, erosion, and sedimentation are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. One of the first and most important priorities of a BAER team is the development of a burn severity map that reflects the fire-induced changes in both vegetative cover and soils. Currently these maps are known as BARC (Burned Area Reflectance Classification) maps and they are generated from multi-spectral remote sensing data. BAER teams also have access to many erosion modeling tools and datasets, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and they require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models (DEM), soils, and land cover. We are working to make spatially-explicit modeling easier by preparing large-scale spatial data sets that can be rapidly combined with burn severity maps and then used to quickly run more accurate, process-based models for spatially explicit predictions of post-fire erosion and runoff. A prototype database consisting of 30-m DEM, soil, land cover, and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) maps for Colorado has been created for use in GeoWEPP (Geo-spatial interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project) with Disturbed WEPP parameters developed for post-fire conditions. Additional soil data layers have been gathered to support a spatial empirical debris flow model that also utilizes BARC maps. Future plans include developing the dataset to support other models commonly used by BAER teams. The importance of preparing spatial data ahead of time can be illustrated with two

  20. Pre-fire and post-fire surface fuel and cover measurements collected in the southeastern United States for model evaluation and development - RxCADRE 2008, 2011 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar; Andrew T. Hudak; Susan J. Prichard; Clinton S. Wright; Joseph C. Restaino; Maureen C. Kennedy; Robert E. Vihnanek

    2016-01-01

    A lack of independent, quality-assured data prevents scientists from effectively evaluating predictions and uncertainties in fire models used by land managers. This paper presents a summary of pre-fire and post-fire fuel, fuel moisture and surface cover fraction data that can be used for fire model evaluation and development. The data were collected in the...

  1. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  2. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  3. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  4. Modeling the Emission of CO from Wood Fires using Detailed Chemical Kinetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dederichs, Anne

    Carbon monoxide is treated as one of the most common and dangerous of gases evolving in fires. Modeling the formation of the toxic gas CO from in fire enclosures using detailed chemical kinetics is the topic of this manuscript. A semi-empirical model is developed to study the formation of CO from......, the model separately treats the process of pyrolysis and combustion. For under ventilated conditions and at high temperatures during pyrolysis it is found that the process of pyrolysation strongly influences the formation of CO in fire. CO2 follows the same trend....

  5. The Design of a Fire Source in Scale-Model Experiments with Smoke Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm; Brohus, Henrik; la Cour-Harbo, H.

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes the design of a fire and a smoke source for scale-model experiments with smoke ventilation. It is only possible to work with scale-model experiments where the Reynolds number is reduced compared to full scale, and it is demonstrated that special attention to the fire source...... (heat and smoke source) may improve the possibility of obtaining Reynolds number independent solutions with a fully developed flow. The paper shows scale-model experiments for the Ofenegg tunnel case. Design of a fire source for experiments with smoke ventilation in a large room and smoke movement...

  6. Modeling Fire Danger in Galicia and Asturias (Spain from MODIS Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Bisquert

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires are one of the most dangerous natural hazards, especially when they are recurrent. In areas such as Galicia (Spain, forest fires are frequent and devastating. The development of fire risk models becomes a very important prevention task for these regions. Vegetation and moisture indices can be used to monitor vegetation status; however, the different indices may perform differently depending on the vegetation species. Eight different spectral indices were selected to determine the most appropriate index in Galicia. This study was extended to the adjacent region of Asturias. Six years of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images, together with ground fire data in a 10 × 10 km grid basis were used. The percentage of fire events met the variations suffered by some of the spectral indices, following a linear regression in both Galicia and Asturias. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI was the index leading to the best results. Based on these results, a simple fire danger model was established, using logistic regression, by combining the EVI variation with other variables, such as fire history in each cell and period of the year. A seventy percent overall concordance was obtained between estimated and observed fire frequency.

  7. Modeling syngas-fired gas turbine engines with two dilutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Mitchell E.

    2011-12-01

    Prior gas turbine engine modeling work at the University of Wyoming studied cycle performance and turbine design with air and CO2-diluted GTE cycles fired with methane and syngas fuels. Two of the cycles examined were unconventional and innovative. The work presented herein reexamines prior results and expands the modeling by including the impacts of turbine cooling and CO2 sequestration on GTE cycle performance. The simple, conventional regeneration and two alternative regeneration cycle configurations were examined. In contrast to air dilution, CO2 -diluted cycle efficiencies increased by approximately 1.0 percentage point for the three regeneration configurations examined, while the efficiency of the CO2-diluted simple cycle decreased by approximately 5.0 percentage points. For CO2-diluted cycles with a closed-exhaust recycling path, an optimum CO2-recycle pressure was determined for each configuration that was significantly lower than atmospheric pressure. Un-cooled alternative regeneration configurations with CO2 recycling achieved efficiencies near 50%, which was approximately 3.0 percentage points higher than the conventional regeneration cycle and simple cycle configurations that utilized CO2 recycling. Accounting for cooling of the first two turbine stages resulted in a 2--3 percentage point reduction in un-cooled efficiency, with air dilution corresponding to the upper extreme. Additionally, when the work required to sequester CO2 was accounted for, cooled cycle efficiency decreased by 4--6 percentage points, and was more negatively impacted when syngas fuels were used. Finally, turbine design models showed that turbine blades are shorter with CO2 dilution, resulting in fewer design restrictions.

  8. Numerical Simulation of Multistory Building Fire with Zone—Modeling Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FuZhuman; FanWeicheng

    1996-01-01

    Based on the basic idea of zone modeling method,a two-layer zone model is developed and programmed to calculate the fire growth and smoke spread in a multi-room buiding subjected to a fire.The related predictive equations,numerical simulation method and sub-models implemented in this model are concisely described.A set of experimental data from Cooper's work at NIST for a two-room compartment fire are chosen for comparison with the model and program,and the numerical results fundamentally agree well with the experimental data,Then,an example of numerical calculation of a two-stoy duilding fire is presented,and the relevant output results are given and analyzed.

  9. Modeling of fire smoke movement in multizone garments building using two open source platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandoker, Md. Arifur Rahman; Galib, Musanna; Islam, Adnan; Rahman, Md. Ashiqur

    2017-06-01

    Casualty of garment factory workers from factory fire in Bangladesh is a recurring tragedy. Smoke, which is more fatal than fire itself, often propagates through different pathways from lower to upper floors during building fire. Among the toxic gases produced from a building fire, carbon monoxide (CO) can be deadly, even in small amounts. This paper models the propagation and transportation of fire induced smoke (CO) that resulted from the burning of synthetic polyester fibers using two open source platforms, CONTAM and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). Smoke migration in a generic multistoried garment factory building in Bangladesh is modeled using CONTAM where each floor is compartmentalized by different zones. The elevator and stairway shafts are modeled by phantom zones to simulate contaminant (CO) transport from one floor to upper floors. FDS analysis involves burning of two different stacks of polyester jacket of six feet height and with a maximum heat release rate per unit area of 1500kw/m2 over a storage area 50m2 and 150m2, respectively. The resulting CO generation and removal rates from FDS are used in CONTAM to predict fire-borne CO propagation in different zones of the garment building. Findings of the study exhibit that the contaminant flow rate is a strong function of the position of building geometry, location of initiation of fire, amount of burnt material, presence of AHU and contaminant generation and removal rate of CO from the source location etc. The transport of fire-smoke in the building Hallways, stairways and lifts are also investigated in detail to examine the safe egress of the occupants in case of fire.

  10. INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the UK Met Office's Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, Stéphane; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Gilham, Richard; Harper, Anna; Sitch, Stephen; Folberth, Gerd

    2016-08-01

    Warm and dry climatological conditions favour the occurrence of forest fires. These fires then become a significant emission source to the atmosphere. Despite this global importance, fires are a local phenomenon and are difficult to represent in large-scale Earth system models (ESMs). To address this, the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) was developed. INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal- to centennial-scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. Fuel flammability is simulated using temperature, relative humidity (RH) and fuel load as well as precipitation and soil moisture. Combining flammability with ignitions and vegetation, the burnt area is diagnosed. Emissions of carbon and key species are estimated using the carbon scheme in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. JULES also possesses fire index diagnostics, which we document and compare with our fire scheme. We found INFERNO captured global burnt area variability better than individual indices, and these performed best for their native regions. Two meteorology data sets and three ignition modes are used to validate the model. INFERNO is shown to effectively diagnose global fire occurrence (R = 0.66) and emissions (R = 0.59) through an approach appropriate to the complexity of an ESM, although regional biases remain.

  11. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40 and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5 for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3. The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  12. On the diagonal susceptibility of the two-dimensional Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tracy, Craig A. [Department of Mathematics, University of California, Davis, California 95616 (United States); Widom, Harold [Department of Mathematics, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064 (United States)

    2013-12-15

    We consider the diagonal susceptibility of the isotropic 2D Ising model for temperatures below the critical temperature. For a parameter k related to temperature and the interaction constant, we extend the diagonal susceptibility to complex k inside the unit disc, and prove the conjecture that the unit circle is a natural boundary.

  13. Comparing physically-based and statistical landslide susceptibility model outputs - a case study from Lower Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canli, Ekrem; Thiebes, Benni; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    By now there is a broad consensus that due to human-induced global change the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase in certain parts of the world. Given the fact, that rainfall serves as the most common triggering agent for landslide initiation, also an increased landside activity can be expected there. Landslide occurrence is a globally spread phenomenon that clearly needs to be handled. The present and well known problems in modelling landslide susceptibility and hazard give uncertain results in the prediction. This includes the lack of a universal applicable modelling solution for adequately assessing landslide susceptibility (which can be seen as the relative indication of the spatial probability of landslide initiation). Generally speaking, there are three major approaches for performing landslide susceptibility analysis: heuristic, statistical and deterministic models, all with different assumptions, its distinctive data requirements and differently interpretable outcomes. Still, detailed comparison of resulting landslide susceptibility maps are rare. In this presentation, the susceptibility modelling outputs of a deterministic model (Stability INdex MAPping - SINMAP) and a statistical modelling approach (generalized additive model - GAM) are compared. SINMAP is an infinite slope stability model which requires parameterization of soil mechanical parameters. Modelling with the generalized additive model, which represents a non-linear extension of a generalized linear model, requires a high quality landslide inventory that serves as the dependent variable in the statistical approach. Both methods rely on topographical data derived from the DTM. The comparison has been carried out in a study area located in the district of Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. For the whole district (ca. 132 km²), 1063 landslides have been mapped and partially used within the analysis and the validation of the model outputs. The respective

  14. Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities

  15. Fire Patterns and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    The West African tropical forest (referred to as the Upper Guinean forest, UGF), is a global biodiversity hotspot providing vital ecosystem services for the region's socio-economic and environmental wellbeing. It is also one of the most fragmented and human-modified tropical forest ecosystems, with the only remaining large patches of original forests contained in protected areas. However, these remnant forests are susceptible to continued fire-mediated degradation and forest loss due to intense climatic, demographic and land use pressures. We analyzed human and climatic drivers of fire activity in the sub-region to better understand the spatial and temporal patterns of these risks. We utilized MODIS active fire and burned area products to identify fire activity within the sub-region. We measured climatic variability using TRMM rainfall data and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We used a boosted regression trees model to determine the influences of predictor variables on fire activity. Our analyses indicated that the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is a key driving factor of fire activity in the UGF. Anthropogenic effects on fire activity in the area were evident through the influences of agriculture and low-density populations. These human footprints in the landscape make forests more susceptible to fires through forest fragmentation, degradation, and fire spread from agricultural areas. Forested protected areas within the forest savanna mosaic experienced frequent fires, whereas the more humid forest areas located in the south and south-western portions of the study area had fewer fires as these rainforests tend to offer some buffering against fire encroachment. These results improve characterization of UGF fire regime and expand our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in response to human and climatic pressures.

  16. Transferability of regional permafrost disturbance susceptibility modelling using generalized linear and generalized additive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudy, Ashley C. A.; Lamoureux, Scott F.; Treitz, Paul; van Ewijk, Karin Y.

    2016-07-01

    To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-prone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape characteristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed locations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) > 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Additionally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results indicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of disturbances were

  17. Fire modeling for Building 221-T - T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oar, D.L.

    1994-09-29

    This report was prepared by Hughes Associates, Inc. to document the results of fire models for building 221-T Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel. Backup data is contained in document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-010, Rev. 0.

  18. Six Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Models on Scale-free Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Morita, Satoru

    2015-01-01

    Spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. For example, disease, rumor, and information spread over underlying social and information networks. It is well known that there is no threshold for epidemic models on scale-free networks; this suggests that disease can spread on such networks, regardless of how low the contact rate may be. In this paper, I consider six models with different contact and propagation mechanisms. Each model is analyzed by degree-based mean-field theory. I show that the presence or absence of an outbreak threshold depends on the contact and propagation mechanism.

  19. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modeling with WRF 3.3 and SFIRE 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mandel

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe the physical model, numerical algorithms, and software structure of a model consisting of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model, coupled with the fire-spread model (SFIRE module. In every time step, the fire model inputs the surface wind, which drives the fire, and outputs the heat flux from the fire into the atmosphere, which in turn influences the atmosphere. SFIRE is implemented by the level set method, which allows a submesh representation of the burning region and a flexible implementation of various kinds of ignition. The coupled model is capable of running on a cluster faster than real time even with fine resolution in dekameters. It is available as a part of the Open Wildland Fire Modeling (OpenWFM environment at http://openwfm.org, which contains also utilities for visualization, diagnostics, and data processing, including an extended version of the WRF Preprocessing System (WPS. The SFIRE code with a subset of the features is distributed with WRF 3.3 as WRF-Fire.

  20. Modeling Fire Emissions from Multiple Land Use Transitions in Southern Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, D. C.; van der Werf, G. R.; Defries, R. S.; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2008-12-01

    Fires for deforestation and other land cover changes in southern Amazonia are an uncertain but significant source of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Recent expansion of mechanized cropland in the region has increased the rates, clearing sizes, and combustion completeness of forest and Cerrado conversion compared to previous deforestation for cattle ranching. To more accurately quantify the influence of agricultural intensification on carbon emissions, we developed a high-resolution (250 m) model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF). DECAF estimates variations in forest and Cerrado biomass based on time series of MODIS NDVI and explicitly tracks the duration and combustion completeness of new deforestation as a function of post-clearing vegetation phenology and MODIS-based fire frequency. In our model runs for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, we quantified the contribution of fires for deforestation, conversion of pasture and Cerrado to mechanized cropland, and pasture maintenance to total fire emissions under low, middle, and high emissions scenarios. During 2001-2005, carbon losses from all types of deforestation were 48-82 Tg per year (mean = 67 Tg C), representing approximately 74% of annual fire emissions in the study region. Cropland expansion in non-forest areas contributed 19% of estimated fire emissions, while maintenance fires in pasture and Cerrado land cover types averaged 7% of all fire emissions during 2001-2005. Conversion of forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. In total, DECAF-based emissions for Mato Grosso represent 1/3 of estimated fire emissions for all of southern hemisphere South America during this period. Our results demonstrate how DECAF can be used to model

  1. The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Thonicke

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.

  2. A Direct-Fire Trajectory Model for Supersonic, Transonic, and Subsonic Projectile Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    motions of the projectile about the trajectory due to the angular motion of the projectile . For a stable projectile , these motions are typically small...A Direct-Fire Trajectory Model for Supersonic, Transonic, and Subsonic Projectile Flight by Paul Weinacht ARL-TR-6998 July 2014...Direct-Fire Trajectory Model for Supersonic, Transonic, and Subsonic Projectile Flight Paul Weinacht Weapons and Materials Research Directorate, ARL

  3. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  4. Phasic firing in vasopressin cells: understanding its functional significance through computational models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duncan J MacGregor

    Full Text Available Vasopressin neurons, responding to input generated by osmotic pressure, use an intrinsic mechanism to shift from slow irregular firing to a distinct phasic pattern, consisting of long bursts and silences lasting tens of seconds. With increased input, bursts lengthen, eventually shifting to continuous firing. The phasic activity remains asynchronous across the cells and is not reflected in the population output signal. Here we have used a computational vasopressin neuron model to investigate the functional significance of the phasic firing pattern. We generated a concise model of the synaptic input driven spike firing mechanism that gives a close quantitative match to vasopressin neuron spike activity recorded in vivo, tested against endogenous activity and experimental interventions. The integrate-and-fire based model provides a simple physiological explanation of the phasic firing mechanism involving an activity-dependent slow depolarising afterpotential (DAP generated by a calcium-inactivated potassium leak current. This is modulated by the slower, opposing, action of activity-dependent dendritic dynorphin release, which inactivates the DAP, the opposing effects generating successive periods of bursting and silence. Model cells are not spontaneously active, but fire when perturbed by random perturbations mimicking synaptic input. We constructed one population of such phasic neurons, and another population of similar cells but which lacked the ability to fire phasically. We then studied how these two populations differed in the way that they encoded changes in afferent inputs. By comparison with the non-phasic population, the phasic population responds linearly to increases in tonic synaptic input. Non-phasic cells respond to transient elevations in synaptic input in a way that strongly depends on background activity levels, phasic cells in a way that is independent of background levels, and show a similar strong linearization of the response

  5. A new heat transfer model for coupled processes in fire simulations; Ein neues Modell zur Simulation gekoppelter Waermetransportprozesse bei Braenden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hohm, Volker [Ingenieurteam Trebes GmbH and Co. KG, Kiel (Germany); Hosser, Dietmar [Institut fuer Baustoffe, Massivbau und Brandschutz (iBMB), Technische Universitaet Braunschweig (Germany)

    2011-10-15

    The application of numerical fire simulations to validate and to evaluate the propagation of fire and smoke is already a fundamental part of the preparation of fire protection or safety concepts, especially in the field of performance-based designs. Against this background, the GFPA-guideline [10] has been developed in the recent years, which describes and classifies the available possibilities, approaches and models as well as provides suitable support for their application. Those programs and models respectively have to provide reliable results on the one hand and have to be efficient on the other hand. Hence, a heat transfer model for coupled processes in fire simulations was developed, which is able to represent the process of convective heat transfer between the gas phase and the solid phase for both horizontal and vertical, plane surfaces and in particular pipe and duct flows on the one hand and the process of heat conduction within multidimensional problems on the other hand physically correct. In addition to this the model is able to reproduce corresponding results using numerical simulation. The model was optimized both physically, by considering the specific fire effects and characteristics, and numerically, by selecting adequate numerical methods, for the integrated usage within numerical fire simulations. It has a modular design, so it is suitable for integration into current and future fire simulation codes. Additionally, a basis was established with and within this model for a later expansion with appropriate pyrolysis models. For that, an interface is provided with the embedded source term on the one hand and the required multidimensional temperature fields are determined precisely by the model on the other hand. A for the completion and demonstration concluding necessary integration of the developed model into a state-of-the-art fire simulation code was exemplarily and successfully performed. Finally, the model was successfully applied amongst

  6. Cellular automaton modelling of lightning-induced and man made forest fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Krenn

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of forest fires on nature and civilisation is conflicting: on one hand, they play an irreplaceable role in the natural regeneration process, but on the other hand, they come within the major natural hazards in many regions. Their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organised criticality. Examples of self-organised critical behaviour can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automaton models. The established self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the Drossel-Schwabl model apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a modification of the model rules that distinguishes between lightning-induced and man made forest fires and enables a systematic increase of the scaling exponent α by approximately 1/3. In addition, combined simulations using both the original and the modified model rules predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.

  7. Cellular automaton modelling of lightning-induced and man made forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krenn, R.; Hergarten, S.

    2009-10-01

    The impact of forest fires on nature and civilisation is conflicting: on one hand, they play an irreplaceable role in the natural regeneration process, but on the other hand, they come within the major natural hazards in many regions. Their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organised criticality. Examples of self-organised critical behaviour can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automaton models. The established self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the Drossel-Schwabl model apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a modification of the model rules that distinguishes between lightning-induced and man made forest fires and enables a systematic increase of the scaling exponent α by approximately 1/3. In addition, combined simulations using both the original and the modified model rules predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.

  8. Linear Modeling and Evaluation of Controls on Flow Response in Western Post-Fire Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxe, S.; Hogue, T. S.; Hay, L.

    2015-12-01

    This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes throughout the western United States, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified subregions and determination of the impact of climate and geophysical variables in post-fire flow response. Fire events were collected through federal and state-level databases and streamflow data were collected from U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. 263 watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. For each watershed, percent changes in runoff ratio (RO), annual seven day low-flows (7Q2) and annual seven day high-flows (7Q10) were calculated from pre- to post-fire. Numerous independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, land cover, climate, burn severity, and soils data. The national watersheds were divided into five regions through K-clustering and a lasso linear regression model, applying the Leave-One-Out calibration method, was calculated for each region. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was used to determine the accuracy of the resulting models. The regions encompassing the United States along and west of the Rocky Mountains, excluding the coastal watersheds, produced the most accurate linear models. The Pacific coast region models produced poor and inconsistent results, indicating that the regions need to be further subdivided. Presently, RO and HF response variables appear to be more easily modeled than LF. Results of linear regression modeling showed varying importance of watershed and fire event variables, with conflicting correlation between land cover types and soil types by region. The addition of further independent variables and constriction of current variables based on correlation indicators is ongoing and should allow for more accurate linear regression modeling.

  9. Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

    2016-12-01

    Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

  10. Epidemic threshold of node-weighted susceptible-infected-susceptible models on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhang, Haifeng

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we investigate the epidemic spreading on random and regular networks through a pairwise-type model with a general transmission rate to evaluate the influence of the node-weight distribution. By using block matrix theory, an epidemic threshold index is formulated to predict the epidemic outbreak. An upper bound of the epidemic threshold is obtained by analyzing the monotonicity of spectral radius for nonnegative matrices. Theoretical results suggest that the epidemic threshold is dependent on both matrices {H}(1) and {H}(2) with the first matrix being related to the mean-field model while the second one reflecting the heterogeneous transmission rates. In particular, for a linear transmission rate, this study shows the negative correlation between the heterogeneity of weight distribution and the epidemic threshold, which is different from the results for existing results from the edge-weighted networks.

  11. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

    2009-01-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

  12. A biological plausible Generalized Leaky Integrate-and-Fire neuron model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhenzhong; Guo, Lilin; Adjouadi, Malek

    2014-01-01

    This study introduces a new Generalized Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (GLIF) neuron model. Unlike Normal Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (NLIF) models, the leaking resistor in the GLIF model equation is assumed to be variable, and an additional term would have the bias current added to the model equation in order to improve the accuracy. Adjusting the parameters defined for the leaking resistor and bias current, a GLIF model could be accurately matched to any Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) model and be able to reproduce plausible biological neuron behaviors.

  13. An exactly solvable model for Brownian motion : IV. Susceptibility and Nyquist's theorem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ullersma, P.

    1966-01-01

    By means of an exactly solvable model, treated in a previous paper1), the relation between the microscopic and macroscopic susceptibility is discussed. Furthermore, the limits of the validity of Nyquist's theorem are given.

  14. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  15. Magnetic susceptibility of the QCD vacuum in a nonlocal SU(3) PNJL model

    CERN Document Server

    Pagura, V P; Noguera, S; Scoccola, N N

    2016-01-01

    The magnetic susceptibility of the QCD vacuum is analyzed in the framework of a nonlocal SU(3) Polyakov-Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model. Considering two different model parametrizations, we estimate the values of the $u$ and $s$-quark tensor coefficients and magnetic susceptibilities and then we extend the analysis to finite temperature systems. Our numerical results are compared to those obtained in other theoretical approaches and in lattice QCD calculations.

  16. A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu Wei; Michael Bevers; Dung Nguyen; Erin Belval

    2014-01-01

    Previous stochastic models in harvest scheduling seldom address explicit spatial management concerns under the influence of natural disturbances. We employ multistage stochastic programming models to explore the challenges and advantages of building spatial optimization models that account for the influences of random stand-replacing fires. Our exploratory test models...

  17. Consequence modeling of fire on Methane storage tanks in a gas refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Shahedi ali abadi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: using fossil fuels, some hazards such as explosion and fire are probable. This study was aimed to consequence modeling of fire on Methane storage tanks in a gas refinery using analyzing the risk, and modeling and evaluating the related consequences. Method: Hazard analysis by PHA was used to choosing the worst-case scenario. Then, causes of the scenario were determined by FTA. After that, consequence modeling by the PHAST software was applied for the consequence analysis. Results: Based on some criteria, the fire of methane gas tank (V-100 was selected as the worst-case scenario at the refinery. The qualitative fault tree showed three factors including mechanical, process, and human failures contribute in gas leakage. The leakage size and weather conditions were effective on the distance of radiation. Using consequence modeling, thermal radiation was considered as the major outcome of the incident. Finally, for outcome evaluating, probit equations were used to quantify losses and the percentage of fatalities due to the methane gas leakage and fire occurrence. The maximum number of fatalities caused by fire was obtained 23 persons. Conclusions: In conclusion, the methane gas vessel in the refinery can be considered as the main center of hazard, therefore the implementation of the safety rules, eliminating mechanical failures, personal protection and education, and Effective measures to prevent and fighting of fire are proposed for decreasing the probable losses and fatalities.

  18. Modeling heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during flash fire exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chitrphiromsri, Patirop; Kuznetsov, Andrey V. [North Carolina State University, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Raleigh, NC 27695-7910 (United States)

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a model of heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during a flash fire exposure is presented. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of coupled heat and moisture transport on the protective performance of the garment. Computational results show the distribution of temperature and moisture content in the fabric during the exposure to the flash fire as well as during the cool-down period. Moreover, the duration of the exposure during which the garment protects the firefighter from getting second and third degree burns from the flash fire exposure is numerically predicted. A complete model for the fire-fabric-air gap-skin system is presented. (orig.)

  19. Crown Fire Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Crown fire potential was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The...

  20. Influence of different meteorological datasets and emission inventories on modeled fire aerosol abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hsiang-He; Bar-Or, Rotem; Wang, Chien

    2017-04-01

    Fires including peatland burning in Southeast Asia have become a major concern to the general public as well as governments in the region. This is because aerosols emitted from such fires can cause persistent haze events under certain weather conditions in downwind locations, degrading visibility and causing human health issues. In order to improve our understanding of the spatialtemporal coverage and influence of biomass burning aerosols in Southeast Asia, we have used surface visibility and particulate matter concentration observations, supplemented by decadal long (2003 to 2014) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a fire aerosol module, driven by high-resolution biomass burning emission inventories. We find that in the past decade, fire aerosols are responsible for nearly all the events with very low visibility (aerosols alone are also responsible for a substantial fraction of the low visibility events (visibility aerosol concentration and visibility, especially in Bangkok and Singapore. For instance, the contribution to fire aerosol in Singapore from northern Australia changes from nearly zero in the simulation driven by FINNv1.5 to about 22% in another simulation driven by GFEDv4.1s. Based on these results, we suggest further research is needed to improve the current estimate of the spatiotemporal distribution of fire emissions, in addition to total emitted quantities from the fire hotspots.

  1. A Cold Model Aerodynamical Test of Air-Staged Combustion in a Tangential Firing Utility Boiler

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Hui-juan; HUI Shi-en; ZHOU Qu-lan

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the flow field in the 300MW tangential firing utility boiler that used the Low NOx Concentric Firing System (LNCFS). Using the method of cold isothermal simulation ensures the geometric and boundary condition similarity. At the same time the condition of self-modeling is met. The experimental results show that the mixture of primary air and secondary air becomes slower, the average turbulence magnitude of the main combustion zone becomes less and the relative diameter of the tangential firing enlarges when the secondary air deflection angle increases. When the velocity pressure ratio of the secondary air to the primary air (p2/p1) enlarges, the mixture of the secondary air and the primary air becomes stronger, the average turbulence magnitude of the main combustion zone increases, and the relative diameter of the tangential firing becomes larger. Because the over fire air (OFA) laid out near the wall has a powerful penetration, the relative diameter of the tangential firing on the section of the OFA is very little, but the average turbulence magnitude is great. When the velocity pressure ratio of the OFA to the primary air pOFA/p1 increases, the relative diameter of the tangential firing on the section of the OFA grows little, the average turbulence magnitude becomes larger and the penetration of the OFA becomes more powerful.

  2. Categorical modeling on electrical anomaly of room-and-pillar coal mine fires and application for field electrical resistivity tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wujun; Wang, Yanming; Shao, Zhenlu

    2017-01-01

    In order to improve the accuracy of fire area delineation in coalfield with electrical prospecting, the categorical geoelectric models of coal fires are established according to geological and mining conditions. The room-and-pillar coal mine fires are divided into three types which are coal seam fire, goaf fire and subsidence area fire, respectively, and forward electrical simulations and inversion analysis of each type of coal fire are implemented. Simulation results show that the resistance anomalies of goaf fires exist around one and a half to two times higher than background field, in contrast, coal seam and subsidence area fires performance low resistivity response which are roughly half to two-third of background field resistivity, respectively. Identification of different fire types and delineation of coal fire areas are further presented. The inversion results which are validated by borehole survey prove that the presented method could eliminate the omission of coal fires with high resistance anomaly and provide a novel reference for fire extinguishing in the future.

  3. A multi-scale conceptual model of fire and disease interactions in North American forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varner, J. M.; Kreye, J. K.; Sherriff, R.; Metz, M.

    2013-12-01

    One aspect of global change with increasing attention is the interactions between irruptive pests and diseases and wildland fire behavior and effects. These pests and diseases affect fire behavior and effects in spatially and temporally complex ways. Models of fire and pathogen interactions have been constructed for individual pests or diseases, but to date, no synthesis of this complexity has been attempted. Here we synthesize North American fire-pathogen interactions into syndromes with similarities in spatial extent and temporal duration. We base our models on fire interactions with three examples: sudden oak death (caused by the pathogen Phytopthora ramorum) and the native tree tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus); mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and western Pinus spp.; and hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) on Tsuga spp. We evaluate each across spatial (severity of attack from branch to landscape scale) and temporal scales (from attack to decades after) and link each change to its coincident effects on fuels and potential fire behavior. These syndromes differ in their spatial and temporal severity, differentially affecting windows of increased or decreased community flammability. We evaluate these models with two examples: the recently emergent ambrosia beetle-vectored laurel wilt (caused by the pathogen Raffaelea lauricola) in native members of the Lauraceae and the early 20th century chestnut blight (caused by the pathogen Cryphonectria parasitica) that led to the decline of American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Some changes (e.g., reduced foliar moisture content) have short-term consequences for potential fire behavior while others (functional extirpation) have more complex indirect effects on community flammability. As non-native emergent diseases and pests continue, synthetic models that aid in prediction of fire behavior and effects will enable the research and management community to prioritize mitigation efforts to realized effects.

  4. Using modeling and rehearsal to teach fire safety to children with autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, David; Dukes, Charles; Brady, Michael P; Scott, Jack; Wilson, Cynthia L

    2016-09-01

    We evaluated the efficacy of an instructional procedure to teach young children with autism to evacuate settings and notify an adult during a fire alarm. A multiple baseline design across children showed that an intervention that included modeling, rehearsal, and praise was effective in teaching fire safety skills. Safety skills generalized to novel settings and maintained during a 5-week follow-up in both training and generalization settings.

  5. Engineering model for intumescent coating behavior in a pilot-scale gas-fired furnace

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Kristian Petersen; Dam-Johansen, Kim; Català, Pere

    2016-01-01

    In the event of a fire, intumescent fire protective coatings expand and form a thermally insulating char that protects the underlying substrate from heat and subsequent structural failure. The intumescence includes several rate phenomena, which have been investigated and quantified in the literat......In the event of a fire, intumescent fire protective coatings expand and form a thermally insulating char that protects the underlying substrate from heat and subsequent structural failure. The intumescence includes several rate phenomena, which have been investigated and quantified...... and adjustable model parameters for a given coating, thereby providing models for industrial applications. In this work, these two challenges are addressed. Three experimental series, with an intumescent coating inside a 0.65 m3 gas-fired furnace, heating up according to so-called cellulosic fire conditions...... placed behind the substrate. A mathematical model, describing the intumescent coating behavior and temperatures in the furnace using a single overall reaction was developed and validated against experimental data. By including a decomposition front movement through the char, a good qualitative agreement...

  6. Development of a model to generate a risk map in a building fire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Fire simulations and sensors are widely used in building fires,various data such as temperature,CO and CO2 concentration,visibility can be obtained by sensors and sensor-based simulation. It is important to generate a risk map based on such data so that we can use it to estimate safety of the building. In this paper,we propose a method to generate a dynamical,integrated risk map using sensor readings in a building fire. Such risk evaluation model is developed using similarity comparison between the space state and dangerous state by a likelihood distance calculating and data grouping from a two-step cluster method. The risk evaluation model considers the integrated influence on the occupants in the zone from high temperature,lack of oxygen,toxic and harmful gases and shows the relative fire risk map at certain time. Based on the simulation study,it is proved that multi-factor fire risk analysis would be more objective and accurate than single factor and two-factor risk analysis and the fire risk evaluation model can generate a risk map and provide the classification information and the whole building risk statistic results to support evacuation command and control.

  7. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  8. A New Agro/Forestry Residues Co-Firing Model in a Large Pulverized Coal Furnace: Technical and Economic Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shien Hui

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Based on the existing biomass co-firing technologies and the known innate drawbacks of dedicated biomass firing, including slagging, corrosion and the dependence on fuel, a new model of agro/forestry residue pellets/shreds and coal co-fired in a large Pulverized Coal (PC furnace was proposed, and the corresponding technical and economic assessments were performed by co-firing testing in a 300 MW PC furnace and discounted cash flow technique. The developed model is more dependent on injection co-firing and combined with co-milling co-firing. Co-firing not only reduces CO2 emission, but also does not significantly affect the fly ash use in cement industry, construction industry and agriculture. Moreover, economic assessments show that in comparison with dedicated firing in grate furnace, agro/forestry residues and coal co-firing in a large PC furnace is highly economic. Otherwise, when the co-firing ratio was below 5 wt%, the boiler co-firing efficiency was 0.05%–0.31% higher than that of dedicated PC combustion, and boiler efficiencies were about 0.2% higher with agro/forestry residues co-firing in the bottom and top burner systems than that in a middle burner system.

  9. Ontology driven modeling for the knowledge of genetic susceptibility to disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu; Sakamoto, Norihiro

    2009-05-12

    For the machine helped exploring the relationships between genetic factors and complex diseases, a well-structured conceptual framework of the background knowledge is needed. However, because of the complexity of determining a genetic susceptibility factor, there is no formalization for the knowledge of genetic susceptibility to disease, which makes the interoperability between systems impossible. Thus, the ontology modeling language OWL was used for formalization in this paper. After introducing the Semantic Web and OWL language propagated by W3C, we applied text mining technology combined with competency questions to specify the classes of the ontology. Then, an N-ary pattern was adopted to describe the relationships among these defined classes. Based on the former work of OGSF-DM (Ontology of Genetic Susceptibility Factors to Diabetes Mellitus), we formalized the definition of "Genetic Susceptibility", "Genetic Susceptibility Factor" and other classes by using OWL-DL modeling language; and a reasoner automatically performed the classification of the class "Genetic Susceptibility Factor". The ontology driven modeling is used for formalization the knowledge of genetic susceptibility to complex diseases. More importantly, when a class has been completely formalized in an ontology, the OWL reasoning can automatically compute the classification of the class, in our case, the class of "Genetic Susceptibility Factors". With more types of genetic susceptibility factors obtained from the laboratory research, our ontologies always needs to be refined, and many new classes must be taken into account to harmonize with the ontologies. Using the ontologies to develop the semantic web needs to be applied in the future.

  10. Cooperative behavior in periodically driven noisy integrate-fire models of neuronal dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulsara, A.R. [Naval Command Control and Ocean Surveillance Center, Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Division, Code 364, San Diego, California 92152-5000 (United States); Elston, T.C. [Center for Nonlinear Studies and Theoretical Division, MS-B258, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545 (United States); Doering, C.R. [Center for Nonlinear Studies and Theoretical Division, MS-B258, Los Alamos National Labortory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545 (United States); Lowen, S.B. [Electrical Engineering Department, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027 (United States); Lindenberg, K. [Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry B034, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0340 (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The dynamics of the standard integrate-fire model and a simpler model (that reproduces the important features of the integrate-fire model under certain conditions) of neural dynamics are studied in the presence of a deterministic external driving force, taken to be time-periodic, and white background noise. Both models possess resonant phenomena in the first passage probability distribution and mean first passage time, arising from the interplay of characteristic time scales in the system. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Physical Society.}

  11. Reprint of Infinity computations in cellular automaton forest-fire model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iudin, D. I.; Sergeyev, Ya. D.; Hayakawa, M.

    2015-04-01

    Recently a number of traditional models related to the percolation theory has been considered by means of a new computational methodology that does not use Cantor's ideas and describes infinite and infinitesimal numbers in accordance with the principle 'The whole is greater than the part' (Euclid's Common Notion 5). Here we apply the new arithmetic to a cellular automaton forest-fire model which is connected with the percolation methodology and in some sense combines the dynamic and the static percolation problems and under certain conditions exhibits critical fluctuations. It is well known that there exist two versions of the model: real forest-fire model where fire catches adjacent trees in the forest in the step by step manner and simplified version with instantaneous combustion. Using new approach we observe that in both situations we deal with the same model but with different time resolution. We show that depending on the "microscope" we use the same cellular automaton forest-fire model reveals either instantaneous forest combustion or step by step firing. By means of the new approach it was also observed that as far as we choose an infinitesimal tree growing rate and infinitesimal ratio between the ignition probability and the growth probability we determine the measure or extent of the system size infinity that provides the criticality of the system dynamics. Correspondent inequalities for grosspowers are derived.

  12. A model combining oscillations and attractor dynamics for generation of grid cell firing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael E Hasselmo

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Different models have been able to account for different features of the data on grid cell firing properties, including the relationship of grid cells to cellular properties and network oscillations. This paper describes a model that combines elements of two major classes of models of grid cells: models using interference of oscillations and models using attractor dynamics. This model includes a population of units with oscillatory input representing input from the medial septum. These units are termed heading angle cells because their connectivity depends upon heading angle in the environment as well as the spatial phase coded by the cell. These cells project to a population of grid cells. The sum of the heading angle input results in standing waves of circularly symmetric input to the grid cell population. Feedback from the grid cell population increases the activity of subsets of the heading angle cells, resulting in the network settling into activity patterns that resemble the patterns of firing fields in a population of grid cells. The properties of heading angle cells firing as conjunctive grid-by-head-direction cells can shift the grid cell firing according to movement velocity. The pattern of interaction of oscillations requires use of separate populations that fire on alternate cycles of the net theta rhythmic input to grid cells, similar to recent neurophysiological data on theta cycle skipping in medial entorhinal cortex.

  13. Electrical modeling of semiconductor bridge (SCB) BNCP detonators with electrochemical capacitor firing sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marx, K.D. [Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States); Ingersoll, D.; Bickes, R.W. Jr. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1998-11-01

    In this paper the authors describe computer models that simulate the electrical characteristics and hence, the firing characteristics and performance of a semiconductor bridge (SCB) detonator for the initiation of BNCP [tetraammine-cis-bis (5-nitro-2H-tetrazolato-N{sup 2}) cobalt(III) perchlorate]. The electrical data and resultant models provide new insights into the fundamental behavior of SCB detonators, particularly with respect to the initiation mechanism and the interaction of the explosive powder with the SCB. One model developed, the Thermal Feedback Model, considers the total energy budget for the system, including the time evolution of the energy delivered to the powder by the electrical circuit, as well as that released by the ignition and subsequent chemical reaction of the powder. The authors also present data obtained using a new low-voltage firing set which employed an advanced electrochemical capacitor having a nominal capacitance of 350,000 {micro}F at 9 V, the maximum voltage rating for this particular device. A model for this firing set and detonator was developed by making measurements of the intrinsic capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR < 10 m{Omega}) of a single device. This model was then used to predict the behavior of BNCP SCB detonators fired alone, as well as in a multishot, parallel-string configuration using a firing set composed of either a single 9 V electrochemical capacitor or two of the capacitors wired in series and charged to 18 V.

  14. Theoretical model study of dynamic ferromagnetic susceptibility in mono-layer graphene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Sivabrata; Parashar, S. K. S.; Rout, G. C.

    2016-04-01

    We report here a microscopic theoretical study of dynamic ferromagnetic spin susceptibility of electrons for graphene systems, which deal with a tight-binding model Hamiltonian consisting of the hopping of electrons up to third-nearest-neighbors, impurity and substrate effects besides Coulomb interaction of electrons at A-and B- sub- lattices. The spin susceptibility involves four two-particle Green's functions, which are calculated by Zubarev's Green's function technique. The up and down electron occupancies at A and B sub-lattices are computed numerically and self-consistently. The temperature dependent susceptibility shows a pronounced peak at Curie temperature for critical Coulomb interaction Uc = 2.2t1.

  15. Tree cover bistability in the MPI Earth system model due to fire-vegetation feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasslop, Gitta; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Reick, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The global distribution of tree cover is mainly limited by precipitation and temperature. Within tropical ecosystems different tree cover values have been observed in regions with similar climate. Satellite data even revealed a lack of ecosystems with tree coverage around 60% and dominant tree covers of 20% and 80%. Conceptual models have been used to explain this tree cover distribution and base it on a bistability in tree cover caused by fire-vegetation interactions or competition between trees and grasses. Some ecological models also show this property of multiple stable tree covers, but it remains unclear which mechanism is the cause for this behaviour. Vegetation models used in climate simulations usually use simple approaches and were criticised to neglect such ecological theories and misrepresent tropical tree cover distribution and dynamics. Here we show that including the process based fire model SPITFIRE generated a bistability in tree cover in the land surface model JSBACH. Previous model versions showed only one stable tree cover state. Using a conceptual model we can show that a bistability can occur due to a feedback between grasses and fire. Grasses and trees are represented in the model based on plant functional types. With respect to fire the main difference between grasses and trees is the fuel characteristics. Grass fuels are smaller in size, and have a higher surface area to volume ratio. These grass fuels dry faster increasing their flammability which leads to a higher fire rate of spread. Trees are characterized by coarse fuels, which are less likely to ignite and rather suppress fire. Therefore a higher fraction of grasses promotes fire, fire kills trees and following a fire, grasses establish faster. This feedback can stabilize ecosystems with low tree cover in a low tree cover state and systems with high tree cover in a high tree cover state. In previous model versions this feedback was absent. Based on the new JSBACH model driven with

  16. Simulating historical landscape dynamics using the landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Sarah D. Pratt

    2006-01-01

    The range and variation of historical landscape dynamics could provide a useful reference for designing fuel treatments on today's landscapes. Simulation modeling is a vehicle that can be used to estimate the range of conditions experienced on historical landscapes. A landscape fire succession model called LANDSUMv4 (LANDscape SUccession Model version 4.0) is...

  17. Modeling and numerical analysis of granite rock specimen under mechanical loading and fire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luc Leroy Ngueyep. Mambou; Joseph Ndop; Jean-Marie Bienvenu Ndjaka

    2015-01-01

    The effect of ISO 834 fire on the mechanical properties of granite rock specimen submitted to uniaxial loading is numerically investigated. Based on Newton’s second law, the rate-equation model of granite rock specimen under mechanical load and fire is established. The effect of heat treatment on the me-chanical performance of granite is analyzed at the center and the ends of specimen. At the free end of granite rock specimen, it is shown that from 20 ?C to 500 ?C, the internal stress and internal strain are weak; whereas above 500 ?C, they start to increase rapidly, announcing the imminent collapse. At the center of specimen, the analysis of the internal stress and internal strain reveals that the fire reduces the mechanical performance of granite significantly. Moreover, it is found that after 3 min of exposure to fire, the mechanical energy necessary to fragment the granite can be reduced up to 80%.

  18. Engineering model for intumescent coating behavior in a pilot-scale gas-fired furnace

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Kristian Petersen; Dam-Johansen, Kim; Català, Pere

    2016-01-01

    In the event of a fire, intumescent fire protective coatings expand and form a thermally insulating char that protects the underlying substrate from heat and subsequent structural failure. The intumescence includes several rate phenomena, which have been investigated and quantified in the literat......In the event of a fire, intumescent fire protective coatings expand and form a thermally insulating char that protects the underlying substrate from heat and subsequent structural failure. The intumescence includes several rate phenomena, which have been investigated and quantified...... and adjustable model parameters for a given coating, thereby providing models for industrial applications. In this work, these two challenges are addressed. Three experimental series, with an intumescent coating inside a 0.65 m3 gas-fired furnace, heating up according to so-called cellulosic fire conditions......, were conducted and a very good repeatability was evident. The experiments were run for almost three hours, reaching a final gas temperature of about 1100 °C. Measurements include transient temperature developments inside the expanding char, at the steel substrate, and in the mineral wool insulation...

  19. Exploring Early Angiosperm Fire Feedbacks using Coupled Experiments and Modelling Approaches to Estimate Cretaceous Palaeofire Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcher, Claire; Hudpsith, Victoria

    2016-04-01

    Using the fossil record we are typically limited to exploring linkages between palaeoecological changes and palaeofire activity by assessing the abundance of charcoals preserved in sediments. However, it is the behaviour of fires that primarily governs their ecological effects. Therefore, the ability to estimate variations in aspects of palaeofire behaviour such as palaeofire intensity and rate of spread would be of key benefit toward understanding the coupled evolutionary history of ecosystems and fire. The Cretaceous Period saw major diversification in land plants. Previously, conifers (gymnosperms) and ferns (pteridophytes) dominated Earth's ecosystems until flowering plants (angiosperms) appear in the fossil record of the Early Cretaceous (~135Ma). We have created surface fire behaviour estimates for a variety of angiosperm invasion scenarios and explored the influence of Cretaceous superambient atmospheric oxygen levels on the fire behaviour occurring in these new Cretaceous ecosystems. These estimates are then used to explore the hypothesis that the early spread of the angiosperms was promoted by the novel fire regimes that they created. In order to achieve this we tested the flammability of Mesozoic analogue fuel types in controlled laboratory experiments using an iCone calorimeter, which measured the ignitability as well as the effective heat of combustion of the fuels. We then used the BehavePlus fire behaviour modelling system to scale up our laboratory results to the ecosystem scale. Our results suggest that fire-angiosperm feedbacks may have occurred in two phases: The first phase being a result of weedy angiosperms providing an additional easily ignitable fuel that enhanced both the seasonality and frequency of surface fires. In the second phase, the addition of shrubby understory fuels likely expanded the number of ecosystems experiencing more intense surface fires, resulting in enhanced mortality and suppressed post-fire recruitment of gymnosperms

  20. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  1. [Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

  2. Seismic quiescence and b-value decrease before large events in forest-fire model

    CERN Document Server

    Mitsudo, Tetsuya; Kato, Naoyuki

    2015-01-01

    Forest fire models may be interpreted as a simple model for earthquake occurrence by translating trees and fire into stressed segments of a fault and their rupture, respectively. Here we adopt a twodimensional forest-fire model in continuous time, and focus on the temporal changes of seismicity and the b-value. We find the b-value change and seismic quiescence prior to large earthquakes by stacking many sequences towards large earthquakes. As the magnitude-frequency relation in this model is directly related to the cluster-size distribution, decrease of the b-value can be explained in terms of the change in the cluster-size distribution. Decrease of the b-value means that small clusters of stressed sites aggregate into a larger cluster. Seismic quiescence may be attributed to the decrease of stressed sites that do not belong to percolated clusters.

  3. A multi-layer zone model for predicting temperature distribution in a fire room

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xiaojun; YANG Lizhong; DENG Zhihua; FAN Weicheng

    2004-01-01

    A multi-layer zone fire growth model is developed to predict the vertical distributions of the temperature in a single room. The fire room volume is divided into a number of horizontal layers, in which the temperature and other physical properties are assumed to be uniform. The principal equations for each laminated horizontal layer are derived from the conservation equations of mass and energy. The implemented fire sub-models are introduced, including the combustion, fluid flow and heat transfer models. Combined with these sub-models, the zone equations for the gas temperature of each layer are solved by Runge-Kutta method for each time step. The results of the sample calculations compare well with the results of experiments conducted by Steckler et al.

  4. Application of Different HSI Color Models to Detect Fire-Damaged Mortar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To obtain a better understanding of the effect of vehicle fires on rigid pavement, a nondestructive test method utilizing an ordinary digital camera to capture images of mortar at five elevated temperatures was undertaken. These images were then analyzed by “image color-intensity analyzer” software. In image analysis, the RGB color model was the basic system used to represent the color information of images. HSI is a derived-color model that is transformed from an RGB model by formulae. In order to understand more about surface color changes and temperatures after a vehicle fire, various transformation formulae used in different research areas were applied in this study. They were then evaluated to obtain the optimum HSI model for further studies of fire-damaged mortar through the use of image analysis.

  5. Fire science at LLNL: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, H.K. (ed.)

    1990-03-01

    This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)

  6. 0-1 integer linear programming model for location selection of fire station: A case study in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahri, Susila

    2016-04-01

    In this research, the minimization of the fire station model is constructed. The maximum time data required by the firefighter is used to construct the minimization model of the fire station in Padang. The model is used to determine the minimum number of the available fire station in Padang town. By using Matlab 2013a, the solution of the model can be found based on the Branch and Bound method. It denotes that the fire station must be built in Lubuk Begalung and Kuranji sub-districts.

  7. Modelling the long term water yield impact of fire in Eucalypt forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Patrick; Fiekema, Paul; Sherwin, Chris; Peel, Murray; Freebairn, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This study involves physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wild fire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbourne's principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow.

  8. Physically-based landslide susceptibility modelling: geotechnical testing and model evaluation issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchesini, Ivan; Mergili, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Alvioli, Massimiliano; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2015-04-01

    We used the software r.slope.stability for physically-based landslide susceptibility modelling in the 90 km² Collazzone area, Central Italy, exploiting a comprehensive set of lithological, geotechnical, and landslide inventory data. The model results were evaluated against the inventory. r.slope.stability is a GIS-supported tool for modelling shallow and deep-seated slope stability and slope failure probability at comparatively broad scales. Developed as a raster module of the GRASS GIS software, r.slope.stability evaluates the slope stability for a large number of randomly selected ellipsoidal potential sliding surfaces. The bottom of the soil (for shallow slope stability) or the bedding planes of lithological layers (for deep-seated slope stability) are taken as potential sliding surfaces by truncating the ellipsoids, allowing for the analysis of relatively complex geological structures. To take account for the uncertain geotechnical and geometric parameters, r.slope.stability computes the slope failure probability by testing multiple parameter combinations sampled deterministically or stochastically, and evaluating the ratio between the number of parameter combinations yielding a factor of safety below 1 and the total number of tested combinations. Any single raster cell may be intersected by multiple sliding surfaces, each associated with a slope failure probability. The most critical sliding surface is relevant for each pixel. Intensive use of r.slope.stability in the Collazzone Area has opened up two questions elaborated in the present work: (i) To what extent does a larger number of geotechnical tests help to better constrain the geotechnical characteristics of the study area and, consequently, to improve the model results? The ranges of values of cohesion and angle of internal friction obtained through 13 direct shear tests corresponds remarkably well to the range of values suggested by a geotechnical textbook. We elaborate how far an increased number of

  9. Mapping regional forest fire probability using artificial neural network model in a Mediterranean forest ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur Satir

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires are one of the most important factors in environmental risk assessment and it is the main cause of forest destruction in the Mediterranean region. Forestlands have a number of known benefits such as decreasing soil erosion, containing wild life habitats, etc. Additionally, forests are also important player in carbon cycle and decreasing the climate change impacts. This paper discusses forest fire probability mapping of a Mediterranean forestland using a multiple data assessment technique. An artificial neural network (ANN method was used to map forest fire probability in Upper Seyhan Basin (USB in Turkey. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP approach based on back propagation algorithm was applied in respect to physical, anthropogenic, climate and fire occurrence datasets. Result was validated using relative operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Coefficient of accuracy of the MLP was 0.83. Landscape features input to the model were assessed statistically to identify the most descriptive factors on forest fire probability mapping using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Landscape features like elevation (R = −0.43, tree cover (R = 0.93 and temperature (R = 0.42 were strongly correlated with forest fire probability in the USB region.

  10. Physical Modeling of Large-Area Fire Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-08-31

    in Science and Technology, Winter 1985. Carrier, G. F., F. Fendell and P. S. Feldman (1985). Firestorms. Journal of Heat Transfer, Vol. 107, pp. 19-28...Carrier, G. F., F. Fendell and P. S. Feldman (1984). Big Fires. Combustion Science and Technology, Vol. 39, pp. 135-162. Caughey, S. J. (1981...G ABRAHAMSON Dist- 1 ,.. ,.. DNA-TR85-364 IDL CONTINUED) STAN MARTIN ASSOCIATES ATTN: S MARTIN SWETL, INC ATTN: T PALMER TRW ELECTRONICS & DEFENSE SECTOR ATTN: F FENDELL Dit- ..’ " Dist-2 .V

  11. Numerical modelling of a straw-fired grate boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a 33 MW straw-fired grate boiler. Combustion on the grate plays akey-role in the analysis of these boilers and in this work a stand-alone code was used to provide inlet conditions for the CFD analysis. Modelpredictions were...... compared with available gas temperature and species concentration measurements showing good agreement. Combustionof biomass in grate-based boilers is often associated with high emission levels and relatively high amounts of unburnt carbon in the fly ash.Based on the CFD analysis, it is suggested that poor...

  12. Candidate hippocampal biomarkers of susceptibility and resilience to stress in a rat model of depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Kim; Palmfeldt, Johan; Christiansen, Sofie

    2012-01-01

    Susceptibility to stress plays a crucial role in the development of psychiatric disorders such as unipolar depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. In the present study the chronic mild stress rat model of depression was used to reveal stress-susceptible and stress-resilient rats. Large......-scale proteomics was used to map hippocampal protein alterations in different stress states. Membrane proteins were successfully captured by two-phase separation and peptide based proteomics. Using iTRAQ labeling coupled with mass spectrometry, more than 2000 proteins were quantified and 73 proteins were found...... to be differentially expressed. Stress susceptibility was associated with increased expression of a sodium-channel protein (SCN9A) currently investigated as a potential antidepressant target. Differential protein profiling also indicated stress susceptibility to be associated with deficits in synaptic vesicle release...

  13. Modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching at Fire Island (NY) during hurricane Sandy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vet, P.L.M.; McCall, R.T.; Den Bieman, J.P.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ormondt, M.

    2015-01-01

    In 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused a breach at Fire Island (NY, USA), near Pelican Island. This paper aims at modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching processes that occured during the hurricane event at this stretch of coast with the numerical model XBeach. By using the default settings, the ero

  14. Local buckling of aluminium structures exposed to fire. Part 2: Finite element models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.

    2009-01-01

    A test series was carried out and reported in a corresponding paper on slender aluminium alloy sections, loaded in compression at elevated temperature. This paper gives the results of simulations of these tests with a finite element model. For this purpose, a novel constitutive model for fire expose

  15. Modeling study on the combustion of intumescent fire-retardant polypropylene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The heat transfer and burning behavior of the intumescent fire-retardant polypropylene were studied by the cone calorimeter at heat flux levels of 50 kW.m-2 to establish an essential physical model for the intumescence process in fire. A mathematical model for the burning process of fire-retardant intumescent polymer was put forward based on the assumption that an intumescent front existed between the char layer and virgin layer. The model emphasizes the thermodynamic aspect of the intumescence process and a corresponding submodel is presented. Meanwhile the thicknesses and mass loss rates of the intumescent polypropylene during burning were measured for the validation of the modeling results. Thermal conductivity and heat capacity of polymer material were also measured as input parameters of the model. The validation results showed that the intumescent thicknesses and mass loss rates predicted by the model were in good agreement with the experimental results. The model was also used to predict the temperature distribution across the sample thickness during burning. The study shows that the present model can appropriately describe the intumescent behavior of the polymer and numerically predict its mass loss rates and temperature distribution in fire.

  16. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system--FUEL subsystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Burgan; Richard C. Rothermel

    1984-01-01

    This manual documents the fuel modeling procedures of BEHAVE--a state-of-the-art wildland fire behavior prediction system. Described are procedures for collecting fuel data, using the data with the program, and testing and adjusting the fuel model.

  17. Physical characteristics of shrub and conifer fuels for fire behavior models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan R. Gallacher; Thomas H. Fletcher; Victoria Lansinger; Sydney Hansen; Taylor Ellsworth; David R. Weise

    2017-01-01

    The physical properties and dimensions of foliage are necessary inputs for some fire spread models. Currently, almost no data exist on these plant characteristics to fill this need. In this report, we measured the physical properties and dimensions of the foliage from 10 live shrub and conifer fuels throughout a 1-year period. We developed models to predict relative...

  18. Modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching at Fire Island (NY) during hurricane Sandy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vet, P.L.M.; McCall, R.T.; Den Bieman, J.P.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ormondt, M.

    2015-01-01

    In 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused a breach at Fire Island (NY, USA), near Pelican Island. This paper aims at modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching processes that occured during the hurricane event at this stretch of coast with the numerical model XBeach. By using the default settings, the

  19. Surface fire effects on conifer and hardwood crowns--applications of an integral plume model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Dickinson; Anthony Bova; Kathleen Kavanagh; Antoine Randolph; Lawrence Band

    2009-01-01

    An integral plume model was applied to the problems of tree death from canopy injury in dormant-season hardwoods and branch embolism in Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) crowns. Our purpose was to generate testable hypotheses. We used the integral plume models to relate crown injury to bole injury and to explore the effects of variation in fire...

  20. Challenges and needs in fire management: A landscape simulation modeling perspective [chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan

    2011-01-01

    Fire management will face many challenges in the future from global climate change to protecting people, communities, and values at risk. Simulation modeling will be a vital tool for addressing these challenges but the next generation of simulation models must be spatially explicit to address critical landscape ecology relationships and they must use mechanistic...

  1. Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures.

  2. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  3. One-dimensional simulation of fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios with PRM and Meso-NH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, S.; Freitas, S. R.; Mari, C.; Longo, K. M.; Paugam, R.

    2013-02-01

    Wild-fires release huge amounts of aerosol and hazardous trace gases in the atmosphere. The residence time and the dispersion of fire pollutants in the atmosphere can range from hours to days and from local to continental scales. These various scenarios highly depend on the injection height of smoke plumes. The altitude at which fire products are injected in the atmosphere is controlled by fire characteristics and meteorological conditions. Injection height however is still poorly accounted in chemistry transport models for which fires are sub-grid scale processes which need to be parametrised. Only recently, physically-based approaches for estimating the fire injection heights have been developed which consider both the convective updrafts induced by the release of fire sensible heat and the impact of background meteorological environment on the fire convection dynamics. In this work, two different models are used to simulate fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios: a Mediterranean arson fire and two Amazonian deforestation fires. A Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux approach, formerly developed to reproduce convective boundary layer in the non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, is compared to the 1-D Plume Rise Model. For both models, radiosonde data and re-analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been used as initial conditions to explore the sensitivity of the models responses to different meteorological forcings. The two models predict injection heights for the Mediterranean fire between 1.7 and 3.3 km with the Meso-NH/EDMF model systematically higher than the 1-D PRM model. Both models show a limited sensitivity to the meteorological forcings with a 20-30% difference in the injection height between radiosondes and ECMWF data for this case. Injection heights calculated for the two Amazonian fires ranges from 5 to 6.5 km for the 1-D PRM model and from 2 to 4 km for the Meso-NH/EDMF model. The

  4. One-dimensional simulation of fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios with PRM and Meso-NH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Strada

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Wild-fires release huge amounts of aerosol and hazardous trace gases in the atmosphere. The residence time and the dispersion of fire pollutants in the atmosphere can range from hours to days and from local to continental scales. These various scenarios highly depend on the injection height of smoke plumes. The altitude at which fire products are injected in the atmosphere is controlled by fire characteristics and meteorological conditions. Injection height however is still poorly accounted in chemistry transport models for which fires are sub-grid scale processes which need to be parametrised. Only recently, physically-based approaches for estimating the fire injection heights have been developed which consider both the convective updrafts induced by the release of fire sensible heat and the impact of background meteorological environment on the fire convection dynamics. In this work, two different models are used to simulate fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios: a Mediterranean arson fire and two Amazonian deforestation fires. A Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux approach, formerly developed to reproduce convective boundary layer in the non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, is compared to the 1-D Plume Rise Model. For both models, radiosonde data and re-analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF have been used as initial conditions to explore the sensitivity of the models responses to different meteorological forcings. The two models predict injection heights for the Mediterranean fire between 1.7 and 3.3 km with the Meso-NH/EDMF model systematically higher than the 1-D PRM model. Both models show a limited sensitivity to the meteorological forcings with a 20–30% difference in the injection height between radiosondes and ECMWF data for this case. Injection heights calculated for the two Amazonian fires ranges from 5 to 6.5 km for the 1-D PRM model and from 2 to 4 km for the Meso

  5. The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Scarpa

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle typical problems in data available to the companies, like the presence of franchises, which are treated as censored data.

  6. Advanced char burnout models for the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Severin; S. Wirtz; V. Scherer [Ruhr-University, Bochum (Germany). Institute of Energy Plant Technology (LEAT)

    2005-07-01

    The numerical simulation of coal combustion processes is widely used as an efficient means to predict burner or system behaviour. In this paper an approach to improve CFD simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers with advanced coal combustion models is presented. In simple coal combustion models, first order Arrhenius rate equations are used for devolatilization and char burnout. The accuracy of such simple models is sufficient for the basic aspects of heat release. The prediction of carbon-in-ash is one aspect of special interest in the simulation of pulverized coal fired boilers. To determine the carbon-in-ash levels in the fly ash of coal fired furnaces, the char burnout model has to be more detailed. It was tested, in how far changing operating conditions affect the carbon-in-ash prediction of the simulation. To run several test cases in a short time, a simplified cellnet model was applied. To use a cellnet model for simulations of pulverized coal fired boilers, it was coupled with a Lagrangian particle model, used in CFD simulations, too. 18 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  7. BLAZE, a novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land-Surface Model applied to a Re-Assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce the fire-model BLAZE (BLAZe induced land-atmosphere flux Estimator), designed for a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities, fire related fluxes and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE (Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP(Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution. Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  8. A risk evaluation model of cervical cancer based on etiology and human leukocyte antigen allele susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bicheng Hu

    2014-11-01

    Conclusions: This model, based on etiology and HLA allele susceptibility, can estimate the risk of cervical cancer in chronic cervicitis patients after HPV infection. It combines genetic and environmental factors and significantly enhances the accuracy of risk evaluation for cervical cancer. This model could be used to select patients for intervention therapy and to guide patient classification management.

  9. Finding simplicity in complexity: modelling post-fire hydrogeomorphic processes and risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Gary; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick; Nyman, Petter

    2017-04-01

    Post-fire runoff and erosion can shape landscapes, destroy infrastructure, and result in the loss of human life. However even within seemingly similar geographic regions post-fire hydro-geomorphic responses vary from almost no response through to catastrophic flash floods and debris flows. Why is there so much variability, and how can we predict areas at risk? This presentation describes the research journey taken by the post-fire research group at The University of Melbourne to answer this question for the se Australian uplands. Key steps along the way have included identifying the dominant erosion processes (and their forcings), and the key system properties controlling the rates of these dominant processes. The high degree of complexity in the interactions between the forcings, the system properties, and the erosion processes, necessitated the development of a simplified conceptual representation of post-fire hydrogeomorphic system that was conducive to modelling and simulation. Spatially mappable metrics (and proxies) for key system forcings and properties were then required to parameterize and drive the model. Each step in this journey has depended on new research, as well as ongoing feedback from land and water management agencies tasked with implementing these risk models and interpreting the results. These models are now imbedded within agencies and used for strategic risk assessments, for tactical response during fires, and for post-fire remediation and risk planning. Reflecting on the successes and failures along the way provides for some more general insights into the process of developing research-based models for operational use by land and water management agencies.

  10. Urban Fire Risk Clustering Method Based on Fire Statistics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Lizhi; REN Aizhu

    2008-01-01

    Fire statistics and fire analysis have become important ways for us to understand the law of fire,prevent the occurrence of fire, and improve the ability to control fire. According to existing fire statistics, the weighted fire risk calculating method characterized by the number of fire occurrence, direct economic losses,and fire casualties was put forward. On the basis of this method, meanwhile having improved K-mean clus-tering arithmetic, this paper established fire dsk K-mean clustering model, which could better resolve the automatic classifying problems towards fire risk. Fire risk cluster should be classified by the absolute dis-tance of the target instead of the relative distance in the traditional cluster arithmetic. Finally, for applying the established model, this paper carded out fire risk clustering on fire statistics from January 2000 to December 2004 of Shenyang in China. This research would provide technical support for urban fire management.

  11. Ecological modeling of pollutants in accidental fire at the landfill waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanov Sonja B.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper presents tyre as flammable material and some examples of tyre fires in the world. Uncontrolled tyre fires produce a lot of smoke and air pollutants, including benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Great heat leads to the generation of pyrolytic oil which, when mixed with the fire extinguishing agent, contaminates the surrounding soil, surface water and underground water. Paper analyzes and presents in particular the emission factors of incomplete burning of waste car tyres. Metal dust emissions have been presented, volatile organic compund (VOC emissions, slightly volatile organic compound (SVOC emissions and emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH. Evaluation of the effect on the air quality has been graphically presented by modelling of uncotrolled tyre burning by using EPA "SCREEN 3 MODEL".

  12. Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (???50 000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of fine

  13. Fire exposed facades: Numerical modelling of the LEPIR2 testing facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dréan Virginie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available LEPIR2 testing facility is aimed to evaluate the fire behaviour of construction solutions implemented on facade according with the experimental evaluation required by the French Technical Specification 249 (IT249 of the safety regulation. It aims to limit the risks of fire spreading by facades to upper levels. This facility involves a wood crib fire in the lower compartment of a full scale two levels high structure. Flames are coming outside from the compartment through windows openings and develop in front of the facade. Computational fluids dynamics simulations are carried out with the FDS code (Fire Dynamics Simulator for two full-scale experiments performed by Efectis France laboratory. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of numerical model to reproduce quantitative results in terms of gas temperatures and heat flux on the tested facade for further evaluation of fire performances of an insulation solution. When experimental results are compared with numerical calculations, good agreement is found out for every quantities and each test. The proposed models for wood cribs and geometry give correct thermal loads and flames shape near the tested facade.

  14. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  15. Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formetta, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

    2016-11-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow landslides can lead to loss of life and significant damage to private and public properties, transportation systems, etc. Predicting locations that might be susceptible to shallow landslides is a complex task and involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, and statistics. Two main approaches are commonly used: statistical or physically based models. Reliable model applications involve automatic parameter calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, and model sensitivity analyses. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify, and compare different models and model performance indicators in order to identify and select the models whose behavior is the most reliable for particular case studies.The procedure was implemented in a package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for model verification. It computes eight goodness-of-fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurement data. The integration of the package in NewAge-JGrass uses other components, such as geographic information system tools, to manage input-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia. The area is extensively subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides mainly because of its complex geology and climatology. The analysis was carried out considering all the combinations of the eight optimized indices and the three models. Parameter calibration, verification, and model performance assessment were performed by a comparison with a detailed landslide inventory map for the

  16. Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

    2007-04-01

    The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

  17. Landslide susceptibility from mathematical model in Sarno area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Capparelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall is accepted as a major precursor for many types of slope movements (rapid, shallow soil slips and deeper landslides and the technical literature is rich in examples of study cases and analysis models, related to landslides induced by rainfall. In general, the developed model can be regrouped in two categories: hydrological and complete. The first ones involve simple empirical relationships linking antecedent precipitation to the time that the landslide occurs; the latter consist of more complex expressions that take several components into account, including specific site conditions, mechanical, hydraulic and physical soil properties, local seepage conditions, and the contribution of these to soil strength. In this study, the analysis was carried out by using a model belonging to the second category for a landslide-prone area in Campania region (Southern Italy, were disastrous mud-flows occurred on 5 May 1998. In details, the model named SUSHI (Saturated Unsaturated Simulation for Hillslope Instability was used and the obtained results made possible to better define the triggering conditions and differentiate the scenarios leading to instability of those slopes.

  18. Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Christine E; Hope, Allen S

    2007-08-01

    Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.

  19. Importance of fuel treatment for limiting moderate-to-high intensity fire: Findings from comparative fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Ian D. Davies; Ross A. Bradstock; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

    2017-01-01

    Context: Wildland fire intensity influences natural communities, soil properties, erosion, and sequestered carbon. Measuring effectiveness of fuel treatment for reducing area of higher intensity unplanned fire is argued to be more meaningful than determining effect on total unplanned area burned. Objectives...

  20. Surface dimming by the 2013 Rim Fire simulated by a sectional aerosol model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Pengfei; Toon, Owen B.; Bardeen, Charles G.; Bucholtz, Anthony; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Saide, Pablo E.; Da Silva, Arlindo; Ziemba, Luke D.; Thornhill, Kenneth L.; Jimenez, Jose-Luis; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Perring, Anne E.; Froyd, Karl D.; Wagner, N. L.; Mills, Michael J.; Reid, Jeffrey S.

    2016-06-01

    The Rim Fire of 2013, the third largest area burned by fire recorded in California history, is simulated by a climate model coupled with a size-resolved aerosol model. Modeled aerosol mass, number, and particle size distribution are within variability of data obtained from multiple-airborne in situ measurements. Simulations suggest that Rim Fire smoke may block 4-6% of sunlight energy reaching the surface, with a dimming efficiency around 120-150 W m-2 per unit aerosol optical depth in the midvisible at 13:00-15:00 local time. Underestimation of simulated smoke single scattering albedo at midvisible by 0.04 suggests that the model overestimates either the particle size or the absorption due to black carbon. This study shows that exceptional events like the 2013 Rim Fire can be simulated by a climate model with 1° resolution with overall good skill, although that resolution is still not sufficient to resolve the smoke peak near the source region.

  1. ARAC dispersion modeling of the August 1998 Tracy, California tire fire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aluzzi, F J; Baskett, R L; Bowen, B M; Foster, C S; Pace, J C; Pobanz, B; Vogt, P J

    1998-08-28

    At about 4:30 pm PDT on Friday, August 7, 1998 a fire ignited the large tire disposal pit of Royster Tire Co. on Macarthur Drive about 5 km (3 miles) south of downtown Tracy, California. While providing on-scene mutual aid late Friday night, the LLNL Fire Department called and requested that the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) make a plume forecast for Saturday. The response team in the field was interested in the forecasted location as well as an estimate of potential health effects on the following day. Not having any previous experience with tire fire source terms, ARAC assessors used a constant unit source rate (1 g/s) of particulate and produced plots showing only the location of the ground-level normalized time-integrated air concentrations from the smoke plume. Very early Saturday morning the assessors faxed plots of ground-level smoke air concentrations forecasted for Saturday from 6 am through 6 pm PDT to the Tracy Fire Emergency Operations Center. (As a part of standard procedure, before delivering the plots, the assessors notified ARAC's DOE sponsor.) Fortunately due to the intense heat from the fire, the dense black smoke immediately lofted into the air preventing high ground-level concentrations close to the tire dump. Later on Saturday morning ARAC forecasted a second set of plume integrated air concentrations for Sunday. By Monday the intensity of the fire lessened, and ARAC's support was no longer requested. Following ARAC's response, we made a third calculation on a large scale of the continuous smoke dispersion for 3 days after the fire. A newspaper photograph showed the plume initially rising toward the northeast and the upper part of the smoke cloud turning counterclockwise toward the north. Winds from ARAC's mesoscale prognostic model reproduced this plume structure, while data from the Friday afternoon sounding from Oakland did not. On the 250 km scale, using gridded wind outputs from our mesoscale forecast

  2. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: Lessons Learned from the Rock House and High Park Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mary Ellen; Elliot, William E.; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess the threat from post-fire runoff and erosion due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties. Increased runoff and sediment delivery are of great concern to both the pubic and resource managers. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate these threats are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. These teams are under very tight deadlines, so they often begin their analysis while the fire is still burning and typically must complete their plans within a couple of weeks. Many modeling tools and datasets have been developed over the years to assist BAER teams, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models, soils, and land cover. The difficulty of acquiring and utilizing these data layers in spatially-explicit models increases with increasing fire size. Spatially-explicit post-fire erosion modeling was attempted for a small watershed in the 1270 km2 Rock House fire in Texas, but the erosion modeling work could not be completed in time. The biggest limitation was the time required to extract the spatially explicit soils data needed to run the preferred post-fire erosion model (GeoWEPP with Disturbed WEPP parameters). The solution is to have the spatial soil, land cover, and DEM data layers prepared ahead of time, and to have a clear methodology for the BAER teams to incorporate these layers in spatially-explicit modeling interfaces like GeoWEPP. After a fire occurs the data layers can quickly be clipped to the fire perimeter. The soil and land cover parameters can then be adjusted according to the burn severity map, which is one of the first products generated for the BAER teams. Under a previous project

  3. Assessing the outstanding 2003 fire events in Portugal with a Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia; Camara, Carlos; Montávez, Juan Pedro

    2013-04-01

    The heatwave that struck western Iberia in the early days of August 2003 was characterized by record high values of both maximum (47.3°C) and minimum (30.6°c) temperatures in Portugal, associated with extremely low humidity levels and relatively intense wind speed (Trigo et al., 2006). These conditions triggered the most devastating sequence of large fires ever registered in Portugal. The estimated total burnt area was about 450.000 ha, including 280.000 ha of forest (Pereira et al., 2011). The outstanding total burnt area value corresponds to roughly 5% of the Portuguese territory, and represents approximately twice the previous maximum observed in 1998 (~220.000 ha), and about four times the long-term average observed between 1980 and 2004. Here we characterise this unusual episode using meteorological fields obtained from both observations and a regional climate model. In this work we use the longest (49-years) high-resolution regional climate simulation available driven by reanalysis data spanning from 1959 to 2007 and covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. This long run was obtained using the MM5 model with a spatial resolution of 10 km. Using this high spatial and temporal resolution we have computed the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System to produce hourly values of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behaviour (van Wagner, 1987). We show the temporal evolution of high resolution patterns for several fire related variables during the most important days for triggering new fires (the first week of August 2003). Besides the absolute value of Tmax, Tmin, wind (speed and direction), relative humidity and FWI we also evaluate the corresponding anomalies of these fields, obtained after removing the long-term smoothed daily climatology. Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. (2011) "The History and Characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database

  4. Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the ''arc of deforestation'', the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year−1, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74% with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19% and pasture fires (7%. In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation

  5. Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, G. R.; Morton, D. C.; Defries, R. S.; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2009-02-01

    Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001-2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF) runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the ''arc of deforestation'', the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year-1, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74%) with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19%) and pasture fires (7%). In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation and from maintenance fires did not covary, although

  6. Test of magnetic susceptibility and grain-size age models of loess

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Ages of the stratigraphic boundary MIS1/2 and MIS3/4 of the Yuanbu loess section in Linxia are used as the basis of the nodal control age. The age of MIS1/2 and MIS3/4 are obtained from the latest international research result-the climatic events recorded in the stalagmite in the Hulu Cave in Nanjing, that MIS1/2 is 11.5 kaB. P. and MIS3/4 is 59.8 kaB.P.. The ages of the two climatic events contain three nodal age control models (Model 1: 0 kaB. P. -59.8 kaB. P.; Model 2: 0 kaB. P. -11.5 kaB. P. and 11.5kaB. P. -59.8 kaB. P.; Model 3: 11.5 kaB. P. -59.8 kaB. P. ), which are used as the nodal control age separately. The deposition times of various stratigraphic horizons are calculated by using the magnetic susceptibility age model and grain-size age model, and then compared with each other. In addition, the AMS14C age, OSL age and the ages of YD and H events are compared with the ages of the corresponding horizons calculated by the three models of nodal control ages. From the analyses of lithologic characters and climatic stages it has been found that both the magnetic susceptibility age model and the grain-size age model have some defects. Because the accurate control ages are selected as the nodal points of the glacial period or interglacial period, the stratigraphic deposition times determined by the high resolution of magnetic susceptibility age model and grain-size age model approximate to the actual ages. As for the relative accuracy of the two age models, the magnetic susceptibility age model is more accurate than the grain-size age model.

  7. Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B

    2015-02-01

    Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

  8. Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: avian responses to prescribed fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Robin E; Royle, J Andrew; Saab, Victoria A; Lehmkuhl, John F; Block, William M; Sauer, John R

    2009-07-01

    Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife

  9. Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, Alberto; Crosta, Giovanni; Frattini, Paolo

    Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables. Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility. Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study

  10. The modeled effects of fire on carbon balance and vegetation abundance in Alaskan tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, M. C.; Davidson, C. D.; Kelly, R.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.

    2012-12-01

    Arctic climate is warming at a rate disproportionately faster than the rest of the world. Changes have been observed within the tundra that are attributed to this trend, including active layer thickening, shrub land expansion, and increases in fire frequency. Whether tundra remains a global net sink of carbon could depend upon the effects of fire on vegetation, specifically concerning the speed at which vegetation reestablishes, the stimulation of growth after fire, and the changes that occur in species composition during succession. While rapid regeneration of graminoid vegetation favors the spread of this functional type in early succession, late succession appears to favor shrub vegetation at abundances greater than those observed before fire. Possible reasons for this latter observation include changes in albedo, soil insulation, and soil moisture regimes. Here we investigate the course of succession after fire disturbance within tundra ecosystems, and the mechanisms involved. A series of simulated burn experiments were conducted on the burn site left by the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire to access the behavior of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 (ED2) in the simulation of fire on the tundra. The land surface sub-model within ED is modified to improve simulate permafrost through the effects of an increased soil-column depth, a peat texture class, and the effects of wind compaction and depth hoar on snow density. Parameterization is conducted through Bayesian techniques used to constrain parameter distributions based upon data from a literature survey, field measurements at Toolik Lake, Alaska, and a data assimilation over three datasets. At each step, priority was assigned to measurements that could constrain parameters that account for the greatest explained variance in model output as determined through sensitivity analysis. Following parameterization, a series of simulations were performed to gauge the suitability of the model in predicting carbon balance and

  11. Modeling susceptibility to deforestation of remaining ecosystems in North Central Mexico with logistic regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    L. Miranda-Aragón; E.J. Trevi(n)o-Garza; J. Jiménez-Pérez; O.A. Aguirre-Calderón; M.A. González-Tagle; M. Pompa-García; C.A. Aguirre-Salado

    2012-01-01

    Determining underlying factors that foster deforestation and delineating forest areas by levels of susceptibility are of the main challenges when defining policies for forest management and planning at regional scale.The susceptibility to deforestation of remaining forest ecosystems (shrubland,temperate forest and rainforest) was conducted in the state of San Luis Potosi,located in north central Mexico.Spatial analysis techniques were used to detect the deforested areas in the study area during 1993-2007.Logistic regression was used to relate explanatory variables (such as social,investment,forest production,biophysical and proximity factors) with susceptibility to deforestation to construct predictive models with two focuses:general and by biogeographical zone.In all models,deforestation has positive correlation with distance to rainfed agriculture,and negative correlation with slope,distance to roads and distance to towns.Other variables were significant in some cases,but in others they had dual relationships,which varied in each biogeographical zone.The results show that the remaining rainforest of Huasteca region is highly susceptible to deforestation.Both approaches show that more than 70% of the current rainforest area has high and very high levels of susceptibility to deforestation.The values represent a serious concern with global warming whether tree carbon is released to atmosphere.However,after some considerations,encouraging forest environmental services appears to be the best alternative to achieve sustainabie forest management.

  12. Statistical modelling of forest fire danger rating based on meteorological, topographical and fuel factors in the Republic of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, M.; Yoon, S.; Jang, K.; Lim, J.

    2016-12-01

    Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behavior and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as social factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. This study aims to develop an advanced Korean Forest Fire Danger Rating System (KFFDRS) using weather data of automatic mountain meteorology observation systems(AMOSs) to support forest fire prevention strategy in South Korea. The KFFDRS consists of three, 10-scale indices: daily weather index (DWI), fuel model index (FMI), and topography model index (TMI). DWI represents the meteorological characteristics, such as humidity (relative and effective), temperature and wind speed, and we integrated nine logistic regression models of the past into one national model. One integrated national model is [1+exp{2.706+(0.088×maximum temperature)-(0.055×relative humidity)-(0.023×effective humidity)-(0.104×mean wind speed)}-1]-1 and all weather variables significantly (pfusion of mountain weather data with 55 random sampling in forest fire event days. One integrated national model showed 10% high accuracy than nine logistic regression models when it is applied fused mountain weather data. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in the Republic of Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

  13. Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

    OpenAIRE

    van der Werf, G. R.; D. C. Morton; R. S. DeFries; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activ...

  14. Fighting Fire with Fire: Modeling the Datacenter-Scale Effects of Targeted Superlattice Thermal Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, S; Tiwari, M; Theogarajan, L; Sherwood, T P; Chong, F T

    2010-11-11

    Local thermal hot-spots in microprocessors lead to worst case provisioning of global cooling resources, especially in large-scale systems. However, efficiency of cooling solutions degrade non-linearly with supply temperature, resulting in high power consumption and cost in cooling - 50 {approx} 100% of IT power. Recent advances in active cooling techniques have shown on-chip thermoelectric coolers (TECs) to be very efficient at selectively eliminating small hot-spots, where applying current to a superlattice film deposited between silicon and the heat spreader results in a Peltier effect that spreads the heat and lowers the temperature of the hot-spot significantly to improve chip reliability. In this paper, we propose that hot-spot mitigation using thermoelectric coolers can be used as a power management mechanism to allow global coolers to be provisioned for a better worst case temperature leading to substantial savings in cooling power. In order to quantify the potential power savings from using TECs in data center servers, we present a detailed power model that integrates on-chip dynamic and leakage power sources, heat diffusion through the entire chip, TEC and global cooler efficiencies, and all their mutual interactions. Our multiscale analysis shows that, for a typical data center, TECs allow global coolers to operate at higher temperatures without degrading chip lifetime, and thus save {approx}27% cooling power on average while providing the same processor reliability as a data center running at 288K.

  15. Uncertainties in façade fire tests – measurements and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Johan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a comparison between test and modelling results are performed for two large-scale façade fire testing methods, namely SP Fire 105 and BS 8414-1. In order to be able to compare tests and modelling the uncertainties have to be quantified both in the test and the modelling. Here we present a methodology based on deterministic sampling to quantify uncertainties in the modelling input. We find, in general good agreement between the models and the test results. Moreover, temperatures estimated by plate thermometers is indicated to be less sensitive to small variations in model input and is thus suitable for these kind of comparisons.

  16. Modeling of the combined heat exchanges in the ceramic firing kilns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El Hayek, M.; Lybaert, P.; Meunier, H. [Faculte Polytechnique de Mons (Belgium)

    1993-12-31

    A new methodology for the simulation of batch ceramic firing kilns is presented. A classical continuum approach is used in the free space and a quasi-continuum one in the load stacking area. This latter is replaced by an homogeneous porous medium with apparent equivalent characteristics. A flux model is used to take radiation heat transfer into account. The conduction in the load pieces is managed by the usual resistance scheme. The whole procedure is applied to a real refractory bricks firing kiln and shows promising features. (Authors). 8 refs., 4 figs.

  17. An evaluation of hardwood fuel models for planning prescribed fires in oak shelterwood stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick H. Brose

    2017-01-01

    The shelterwood burn technique is becoming more accepted and used as a means of regenerating eastern mixed-oak (Quercus spp.) forests on productive upland sites. Preparation is important to successfully implement this method; part of that preparation is selecting the proper fuel model (FM) for the prescribed fire. Because of the mix of leaf litter...

  18. Cortical Network Models of Firing Rates in the Resting and Active States Predict BOLD Responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxwell R Bennett

    Full Text Available Measurements of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD signals have produced some surprising observations. One is that their amplitude is proportional to the entire activity in a region of interest and not just the fluctuations in this activity. Another is that during sleep and anesthesia the average BOLD correlations between regions of interest decline as the activity declines. Mechanistic explanations of these phenomena are described here using a cortical network model consisting of modules with excitatory and inhibitory neurons, taken as regions of cortical interest, each receiving excitatory inputs from outside the network, taken as subcortical driving inputs in addition to extrinsic (intermodular connections, such as provided by associational fibers. The model shows that the standard deviation of the firing rate is proportional to the mean frequency of the firing when the extrinsic connections are decreased, so that the mean BOLD signal is proportional to both as is observed experimentally. The model also shows that if these extrinsic connections are decreased or the frequency of firing reaching the network from the subcortical driving inputs is decreased, or both decline, there is a decrease in the mean firing rate in the modules accompanied by decreases in the mean BOLD correlations between the modules, consistent with the observed changes during NREM sleep and under anesthesia. Finally, the model explains why a transient increase in the BOLD signal in a cortical area, due to a transient subcortical input, gives rises to responses throughout the cortex as observed, with these responses mediated by the extrinsic (intermodular connections.

  19. Assessing the Firing Properties of the Electrically Stimulated Auditory Nerve Using a Convolution Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strahl, Stefan B; Ramekers, Dyan; Nagelkerke, Marjolijn M B; Schwarz, Konrad E; Spitzer, Philipp; Klis, Sjaak F L; Grolman, Wilko; Versnel, Huib

    2016-01-01

    The electrically evoked compound action potential (eCAP) is a routinely performed measure of the auditory nerve in cochlear implant users. Using a convolution model of the eCAP, additional information about the neural firing properties can be obtained, which may provide relevant information about th

  20. An improved canopy wind model for predicting wind adjustment factors and wildland fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Massman; J. M. Forthofer; M. A. Finney

    2017-01-01

    The ability to rapidly estimate wind speed beneath a forest canopy or near the ground surface in any vegetation is critical to practical wildland fire behavior models. The common metric of this wind speed is the "mid-flame" wind speed, UMF. However, the existing approach for estimating UMF has some significant shortcomings. These include the assumptions that...

  1. Cortical Network Models of Firing Rates in the Resting and Active States Predict BOLD Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Maxwell R; Farnell, Les; Gibson, William G; Lagopoulos, Jim

    2015-01-01

    Measurements of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signals have produced some surprising observations. One is that their amplitude is proportional to the entire activity in a region of interest and not just the fluctuations in this activity. Another is that during sleep and anesthesia the average BOLD correlations between regions of interest decline as the activity declines. Mechanistic explanations of these phenomena are described here using a cortical network model consisting of modules with excitatory and inhibitory neurons, taken as regions of cortical interest, each receiving excitatory inputs from outside the network, taken as subcortical driving inputs in addition to extrinsic (intermodular) connections, such as provided by associational fibers. The model shows that the standard deviation of the firing rate is proportional to the mean frequency of the firing when the extrinsic connections are decreased, so that the mean BOLD signal is proportional to both as is observed experimentally. The model also shows that if these extrinsic connections are decreased or the frequency of firing reaching the network from the subcortical driving inputs is decreased, or both decline, there is a decrease in the mean firing rate in the modules accompanied by decreases in the mean BOLD correlations between the modules, consistent with the observed changes during NREM sleep and under anesthesia. Finally, the model explains why a transient increase in the BOLD signal in a cortical area, due to a transient subcortical input, gives rises to responses throughout the cortex as observed, with these responses mediated by the extrinsic (intermodular) connections.

  2. Model fire tests on polyphosphazene rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber foams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widenor, W. M.

    1978-01-01

    A video tape record of model room fire tests was shown, comparing polyphosphazene (P-N) rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber closed-cell foams as interior finish thermal insulation under conditions directly translatable to an actual fire situation. Flashover did not occur with the P-N foam and only moderate amounts of low density smoke were formed, whereas with the PVC/nitrile foam, flashover occurred quickly and large volumes of high density smoke were emitted. The P-N foam was produced in a pilot plant under carefully controlled conditions. The PVC/nitrile foam was a commercial product. A major phase of the overall program involved fire tests on P-N open-cell foam cushioning.

  3. Predictive modeling of gingivitis severity and susceptibility via oral microbiota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shi; Li, Rui; Zeng, Xiaowei; He, Tao; Zhao, Helen; Chang, Alice; Bo, Cunpei; Chen, Jie; Yang, Fang; Knight, Rob; Liu, Jiquan; Davis, Catherine; Xu, Jian

    2014-09-01

    Predictive modeling of human disease based on the microbiota holds great potential yet remains challenging. Here, 50 adults underwent controlled transitions from naturally occurring gingivitis, to healthy gingivae (baseline), and to experimental gingivitis (EG). In diseased plaque microbiota, 27 bacterial genera changed in relative abundance and functional genes including 33 flagellar biosynthesis-related groups were enriched. Plaque microbiota structure exhibited a continuous gradient along the first principal component, reflecting transition from healthy to diseased states, which correlated with Mazza Gingival Index. We identified two host types with distinct gingivitis sensitivity. Our proposed microbial indices of gingivitis classified host types with 74% reliability, and, when tested on another 41-member cohort, distinguished healthy from diseased individuals with 95% accuracy. Furthermore, the state of the microbiota in naturally occurring gingivitis predicted the microbiota state and severity of subsequent EG (but not the state of the microbiota during the healthy baseline period). Because the effect of disease is greater than interpersonal variation in plaque, in contrast to the gut, plaque microbiota may provide advantages in predictive modeling of oral diseases.

  4. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas Rivera, Dario; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2015-01-01

    The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an ‘intelligent coincidence detector’, which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena. PMID:26451888

  5. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cuevas Rivera

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

  6. Effect of lithological data of different scales on modelling landslide susceptibility maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassner, C.; Petschko, H.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2012-04-01

    In landslide susceptibility modelling, lithology is often only available at rather coarse scales. The effects of this course resolution on the final map are often unknown. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate how different lithological data affect the results of landslide susceptibility modelling and to analyse spatial differences in the resulting maps in Scheibbs, a district of Lower Austria. Within this study logistic regression is used to model landslide susceptibility, focusing on the consequences deriving from the use of two different lithological datasets (mapping scale 1:200,000 and 1:50,000). Here, the dependent variable is the landslide inventory and the independent variables are derivates of the digital elevation model (DEM) at a 10m resolution (slope, aspect, and curvature), the land cover map (10m x 10m) and lithological maps. Nominal data (land cover and lithology) were transformed to metric data by frequency ratios. Three different techniques are applied to evaluate model performance to allow for a comparison of the models/maps using lithological data with varying scales. The first approach uses AUROC curves of the test and training datasets, which were generated by random sampling. Secondly, the resulting susceptibility maps were classified into four classes with equal intervals. Then, the performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies and the number of landslides falling within the area classified as unstable (true positives). In a third evaluation step the geomorphological quality of the resulting susceptibility maps was visually interpreted. Different classification methods (e.g. quartiles, jenks) were tested. The results show that the lithological data (1:50,000) have slightly better AUROC values. Surprisingly, the statistical validation of the true positives does not allow a definite preference in terms of best accuracy for either dataset. Test results on geomorphological value show

  7. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi

    2017-06-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.

  8. On the Baryonic Density and Susceptibilities in a Holographic Model of QCD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Keun-young; Liao, Jinfeng

    2009-06-16

    In this paper, we calculate analytically the baryonic density and susceptibilities, which are sensitive probes to the fermionic degrees of freedom, in a holographic model of QCD both in its hot QGP phase and in its cold dense phase. Interesting patterns due to strong coupling dynamics will be shown and valuable lessons for QCD will be discussed.

  9. GIS-aided Statistical Landslide Susceptibility Modeling And Mapping Of Antipolo Rizal (Philippines)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumlao, A. J.; Victor, J. A.

    2015-09-01

    Slope instability associated with heavy rainfall or earthquake is a familiar geotechnical problem in the Philippines. The main objective of this study is to perform a detailed landslide susceptibility assessment of Antipolo City. The statistical method of assessment used was logistic regression. Landslide inventory was done through interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images with corresponding field verification. In this study, morphologic and non-morphologic factors contributing to landslide occurrence and their corresponding spatial relationships were considered. The analysis of landslide susceptibility was implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The 17320 randomly selected datasets were divided into training and test data sets. K- cross fold validation is done with k= 5. The subsamples are then fitted five times with k-1 training data set and the remaining fold as the validation data set. The AUROC of each model is validated using each corresponding data set. The AUROC of the five models are; 0.978, 0.977, 0.977, 0.974, and 0.979 respectively, implying that the models are effective in correctly predicting the occurrence and nonoccurrence of landslide activity. Field verification was also done. The landslide susceptibility map was then generated from the model. It is classified into four categories; low, moderate, high and very high susceptibility. The study also shows that almost 40% of Antipolo City has been assessed to be potentially dangerous areas in terms of landslide occurrence.

  10. Pion Susceptibilities of the Vacuum in a Modified Global Colour Symmetry Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZONG Hong-Shi; WU Xiao-Hua; DING Xiao-Ping; L0 Xiao-Fu; ZHAO En-Guang

    2001-01-01

    Based on a modified version of the global color symmetry model, the pion susceptibilities of vacuum needed in the QCD sum rule external-field method for the coupling of pseudoscalar current to hadron have bean calculated beyond the vacuum saturation approximation. Comparison with the previous estimations has been given.

  11. Phase structure, critical points and susceptibilities in Nambu-Jona-Lasinio type models

    CERN Document Server

    De Sousa, C A; Ruivo, M C

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the chiral phase transition at finite temperature and chemical potential within SU(2) and SU(3) Nambu-Jona-Lasinio type models. The behavior of the baryon number susceptibility and the specific heat, in the vicinity of the critical end point, is studied. The class of the critical points is analyzed by calculating critical exponents.

  12. A GIS approach to model sediment reduction susceptibility of mixed sand and gravel beaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eikaas, Hans S; Hemmingsen, Maree A

    2006-06-01

    The morphological form of mixed sand and gravel beaches is distinct, and the process/response system and complex dynamics of these beaches are not well understood. Process response models developed for pure sand or gravel beaches cannot be directly applied to these beaches. The Canterbury Bight coastline is apparently abundantly supplied with sediments from large rivers and coastal alluvial cliffs, but a large part of this coastline is experiencing long-term erosion. Sediment budget models provide little evidence to suggest sediments are stored within this system. Current sediment budget models inadequately quantify and account for the processes responsible for the patterns of erosion and accretion of this coastline. We outline a new method to extrapolate from laboratory experiments to the field using a geographical information system approach to model sediment reduction susceptibility for the Canterbury Bight. Sediment samples from ten representative sites were tumbled in a concrete mixer for an equivalent distance of 40 km. From the textural mixture and weight loss over 40 km tumbling, we applied regression techniques to generate a predictive equation for Sediment Reduction Susceptibility (SRS). We used Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) to extrapolate the results from fifty-five sites with data on textural sediment composition to field locations with no data along the Canterbury Bight, creating a continuous sediment reductions susceptibility surface. Isolines of regular SRS intervals were then derived from the continuous surface to create a contour map of sediment reductions susceptibility for the Canterbury Bight. Results highlighted the variability in SRS along this coastline.

  13. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility

    KAUST Repository

    Korobeinikov, Andrei

    2013-01-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  14. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnik, Andrey V; Korobeinikov, Andrei

    2013-04-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  15. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...

  16. Bed models for solid fuel conversion process in grate-fired boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, M.; Massarotti, N.; Indrizzi, V.

    2013-01-01

    to describe the thermo-chemical conversion process of a solid fuel bed in a grate-fired boiler is presented. In this work both models consider the incoming solid fuel as subjected to drying, pyrolysis, gasification and combustion. In the first approach the biomass bed is treated as a 0D system, but the thermo......Because of the complexity to describe and solve thermo-chemical processes occurring in a fuel bed in grate-fired boiler, it is often necessary to simplify the process and use modeling techniques based on overall mass, energy and species conservation. A comparison between two numerical models......-chemical processes are divided in two successive sections: drying and conversion (which includes pyrolysis, gasification and combustion). The second model is an empirical 1D approach. The two models need input data such as composition, temperature and feeding rate of biomass and primary air. Temperature, species...

  17. Topological susceptibility in the SU(3) random vortex world-surface model

    CERN Document Server

    Engelhardt, M

    2008-01-01

    The topological charge is constructed for SU(3) center vortex world-surfaces composed of elementary squares on a hypercubic lattice. In distinction to the SU(2) case investigated previously, it is necessary to devise a proper treatment of the color structure at vortex branchings, which arise in the SU(3) case, but not for SU(2). The construction is used to evaluate the topological susceptibility in the random vortex world-surface model of infrared Yang-Mills dynamics. Results for the topological susceptibility are reported as a function of temperature, including both the confined as well as the deconfined phase.

  18. Mapping the QCD Phase Diagram with Susceptibilities of Conserved Charges within Nambu-Jonna-Lasinio Model

    CERN Document Server

    Fan, Wenkai; Zong, Hong-Shi

    2016-01-01

    Under the chemical equilibrium and electric charge neutrality conditions, we evaluate the $2$nd to $4$th order baryon, charge and strangeness susceptibilities near a chiral critical point using the Nambu--Jona--Lasinio model. Because of the considerati on of electron chemical potential, up and down quarks are no longer degenerate, but have a chemical potential difference. This isospin chemical potential does not bring new qualitative features in the QCD phase diagram. Furthermore, baryon number susce ptibilities are found to be of the greatest magnitude, offering the strongest signal. Whereas the strangeness susceptibilities have the smallest divergence dominating area, owing to the large strange quark mass.

  19. Correlations of conserved number mixed susceptibilities in a hadron resonance gas model

    CERN Document Server

    Mishra, D K; Mohanty, Bedangadas

    2016-01-01

    The ratios of off-diagonal and diagonal susceptibilities of conserved charges are studied using a hadron resonance gas model with an emphasis towards providing a proper baseline for omparison to the corresponding future experimental measurements. We have studied the effect of kinematic acceptances, transverse momentum ($p_T$) and pseudorapidity ($\\eta$), and different charged states on the ratios of the calculated susceptibilities. We find that the effect of $p_T$ and $\\eta$ acceptance on the ratio of the susceptibilities are small relative to their dependence on the beam energy or the charged states of the used particles. We also present a Hadron Resonance Gas (HRG) based calculation for various combinations of cumulant ratios of protons and pions, recently proposed as robust observables (with no theoretical uncertainties) for critical point search in the experiments. These results which increase as a function of collision energy will provide a better baseline for non-critical point physics compared to Poiss...

  20. Multifractal magnetic susceptibility distribution models of hydrothermally altered rocks in the Needle Creek Igneous Center of the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gettings, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Magnetic susceptibility was measured for 700 samples of drill core from thirteen drill holes in the porphyry copper-molybdenum deposit of the Stinkingwater mining district in the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming. The magnetic susceptibility measurements, chemical analyses, and alteration class provided a database for study of magnetic susceptibility in these altered rocks. The distribution of the magnetic susceptibilities for all samples is multi-modal, with overlapping peaked distributions for samples in the propylitic and phyllic alteration class, a tail of higher susceptibilities for potassic alteration, and an approximately uniform distribution over a narrow range at the highest susceptibilities for unaltered rocks. Samples from all alteration and mineralization classes show susceptibilities across a wide range of values. Samples with secondary (supergene) alteration due to oxidation or enrichment show lower susceptibilities than primary (hypogene) alteration rock. Observed magnetic susceptibility variations and the monolithological character of the host rock suggest that the variations are due to varying degrees of alteration of blocks of rock between fractures that conducted hydrothermal fluids. Alteration of rock from the fractures inward progressively reduces the bulk magnetic susceptibility of the rock. The model introduced in this paper consists of a simulation of the fracture pattern and a simulation of the alteration of the rock between fractures. A multifractal model generated from multiplicative cascades with unequal ratios produces distributions statistically similar to the observed distributions. The reduction in susceptibility in the altered rocks was modelled as a diffusion process operating on the fracture distribution support. The average magnetic susceptibility was then computed for each block. For the purpose of comparing the model results with observation, the simulated magnetic susceptibilities were then averaged over the same interval as the

  1. Multifractal magnetic susceptibility distribution models of hydrothermally altered rocks in the Needle Creek Igneous Center of the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Gettings

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic susceptibility was measured for 700 samples of drill core from thirteen drill holes in the porphyry copper-molybdenum deposit of the Stinkingwater mining district in the Absaroka Mountains, Wyoming. The magnetic susceptibility measurements, chemical analyses, and alteration class provided a database for study of magnetic susceptibility in these altered rocks. The distribution of the magnetic susceptibilities for all samples is multi-modal, with overlapping peaked distributions for samples in the propylitic and phyllic alteration class, a tail of higher susceptibilities for potassic alteration, and an approximately uniform distribution over a narrow range at the highest susceptibilities for unaltered rocks. Samples from all alteration and mineralization classes show susceptibilities across a wide range of values. Samples with secondary (supergene alteration due to oxidation or enrichment show lower susceptibilities than primary (hypogene alteration rock. Observed magnetic susceptibility variations and the monolithological character of the host rock suggest that the variations are due to varying degrees of alteration of blocks of rock between fractures that conducted hydrothermal fluids. Alteration of rock from the fractures inward progressively reduces the bulk magnetic susceptibility of the rock. The model introduced in this paper consists of a simulation of the fracture pattern and a simulation of the alteration of the rock between fractures. A multifractal model generated from multiplicative cascades with unequal ratios produces distributions statistically similar to the observed distributions. The reduction in susceptibility in the altered rocks was modelled as a diffusion process operating on the fracture distribution support. The average magnetic susceptibility was then computed for each block. For the purpose of comparing the model results with observation, the simulated magnetic susceptibilities were then averaged over the same

  2. A Spatio-Temporal Model for Forest Fire Detection Using MODIS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Gong, Adu; Chen, Yanling; Wang, Jingmei

    2017-04-01

    Contextual algorithm and Muti-temporal analysis are currently the most widely used in fire detection based on remote sensing technology. However, muti-temporal analysis ignores the correlation between the inspected pixel and its neighboring pixels (spatial heterogeneity) (Equation (1)). Contextual algorithm only focuses on a single scene, and ignores the internal differences of the background pixels, which increases the commission error. Due to the muti-temporal analysis and contextual algorithm are used for different processes of fire detection, the combination between them will increase the accuracy for fire detection. BTti1- BT-it2- BT-it3 BTto1 = αBT ot2= βBT ot3=... (1) Where BTtin is the bright temperature (BT) of the valid neighboring pixel i of the inspected pixel o at time tn ,(i=1,2,…,N), N is the number of the valid neighboring pixels(Which depends on the condition of context), BT otn is the BT of o at time tn . In this paper, We coupled the muti-temporal analysis with contextual algorithm and proposed a region-adaptive spatio-temporal model for forest fire detection: (1) Pre-processing: Cloud, water, potential background fires and bright fire-free targets masking (refer to the context method); (2) Adjust the threshold for identifying potential fire-points for different study areas (Equation 2); (3) The spatial relationship of BT between the inspected pixels and its neighboring pixels in current time is build based on the spatial relationship of BT between them in the multiple previous images, and the BT of the inspected pixels is estimated based on the present spatial relationship and the BT of its neighboring pixels and using inverse distance weighted method (Equation 3). (4) The predicted BT value of the inspected pixel at a certain time is the weighted sum of the value obtained by (3) and the real BT value of the inspected pixel at the previous time (Equation 4); (5) Relative fire pixels judgment(refer to the context method). BT4 > BT4S,DBT > 10k

  3. Mathematical Model for Dengue Epidemics with Differential Susceptibility and Asymptomatic Patients Using Computer Algebra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldarriaga Vargas, Clarita

    When there are diseases affecting large populations where the social, economic and cultural diversity is significant within the same region, the biological parameters that determine the behavior of the dispersion disease analysis are affected by the selection of different individuals. Therefore and because of the variety and magnitude of the communities at risk of contracting dengue disease around all over the world, suggest defining differentiated populations with individual contributions in the results of the dispersion dengue disease analysis. In this paper those conditions were taken in account when several epidemiologic models were analyzed. Initially a stability analysis was done for a SEIR mathematical model of Dengue disease without differential susceptibility. Both free disease and endemic equilibrium states were found in terms of the basic reproduction number and were defined in the Theorem (3.1). Then a DSEIR model was solved when a new susceptible group was introduced to consider the effects of important biological parameters of non-homogeneous populations in the spreading analysis. The results were compiled in the Theorem (3.2). Finally Theorems (3.3) and (3.4) resumed the basic reproduction numbers for three and n different susceptible groups respectively, giving an idea of how differential susceptibility affects the equilibrium states. The computations were done using an algorithmic method implemented in Maple 11, a general-purpose computer algebra system.

  4. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  5. A model of reverse spike frequency adaptation and repetitive firing of subthalamic nucleus neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Charles J; Weyrick, Angela; Terman, David; Hallworth, Nicholas E; Bevan, Mark D

    2004-05-01

    Subthalamic nucleus neurons exhibit reverse spike-frequency adaptation. This occurs only at firing rates of 20-50 spikes/s and higher. Over this same frequency range, there is an increase in the steady-state frequency-intensity (F-I) curve's slope (the secondary range). Specific blockade of high-voltage activated calcium currents reduced the F-I curve slope and reverse adaptation. Blockade of calcium-dependent potassium current enhanced secondary range firing. A simple model that exhibited these properties used spike-triggered conductances similar to those in subthalamic neurons. It showed: 1) Nonaccumulating spike afterhyperpolarizations produce positively accelerating F-I curves and spike-frequency adaptation that is complete after the second spike. 2) Combinations of accumulating aftercurrents result in a linear F-I curve, whose slope depends on the relative contributions of inward and outward currents. Spike-frequency adaptation can be gradual. 3) With both accumulating and nonaccumulating aftercurrents, primary and secondary ranges will be present in the F-I curve. The slope of the primary range is determined by the nonaccumulating conductance; the accumulating conductances govern the secondary range. The transition is determined by the relative strengths of accumulating and nonaccumulating currents. 4) Spike-threshold accommodation contributes to the secondary range, reducing its slope at high firing rates. Threshold accommodation can stabilize firing when inward aftercurrents exceed outward ones. 5) Steady-state reverse adaptation results when accumulated inward aftercurrents exceed outward ones. This requires spike-threshold accommodation. Transient speedup arises when inward currents are smaller than outward ones at steady state, but accumulate more rapidly. 6) The same mechanisms alter firing in response to irregular patterns of synaptic conductances, as cell excitability fluctuates with changes in firing rate.

  6. Development of a model to predict ash transport and water pollution risk in fire-affected environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neris, Jonay; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Robichaud, Peter R.

    2017-04-01

    An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

  7. More efficient operation of coal fired power plants using nonlinear models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulsari, A.; Wemberg, A.; Anttila, A.; Multas, A. [Nonlinear Solution Oy, Turku (Finland)

    2010-07-15

    Abstract: Coal fired power plants should be operated in such a way that the emissions are kept clearly below desired limits and the combustion efficiency is as high as can be achieved. This requires a lot of quantitative knowledge of the effects of the process variables and fuel characteristics on the emissions and efficiency. Mathematical models can be developed with different approaches. Physical models are too slow to be used for on-line process guidance, and require too many assumptions and simplifications. It is feasible to develop empirical or semi-empirical models from normal production data of the power plant. This technical communication explains with an example of a coal fired power plant how nonlinear models are an effective means of determining the best operating conditions at any given load for a given type of coal.

  8. Multiplatform inversion of the 2013 Rim Fire smoke emissions using regional-scale modeling: important nocturnal fire activity, air quality, and climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saide, P. E.; Peterson, D. A.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Ziemba, L. D.; Anderson, B.; Diskin, G. S.; Sachse, G. W.; Hair, J. W.; Butler, C. F.; Fenn, M. A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Dibb, J. E.; Yokelson, R. J.; Toon, B.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2014-12-01

    Large wildfire events are increasingly recognized for their adverse effects on air quality and visibility, thus providing motivation for improving smoke emission estimates. The Rim Fire, one of the largest events in California's history, produced a large smoke plume that was sampled by the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) DC-8 aircraft with a full suite of in-situ and remote sensing measurements on 26-27 August 2013. We developed an inversion methodology which uses the WRF-Chem modeling system to constrain hourly fire emissions, using as initial estimates the NASA Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). This method differs from the commonly performed top-down estimates that constrain daily (or longer time scale) emissions. The inversion method is able to simultaneously improve the model fit to various SEAC4RS airborne measurements (e.g., organic aerosol, carbon monoxide (CO), aerosol extinction), ground based measurements (e.g., AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD), CO), and satellite data (MODIS AOD) by modifying fire emissions and utilizing the information content of all these measurements. Preliminary results show that constrained emissions for a 6 day period following the largest fire growth are a factor 2-4 higher than the initial top-down estimates. Moreover, there is a tendency to increase nocturnal emissions by factors sometimes larger than 20, indicating that vigorous fire activity continued during the night. This deviation from a typical diurnal cycle is confirmed using geostationary satellite data. The constrained emissions also have a larger day-to-day variability than the initial emissions and correlate better to daily area burned estimates as observed by airborne infrared measurements (NIROPS). Experiments with the assimilation system show that performing the inversion using only satellite AOD data produces much smaller correction factors than when using all available data

  9. Comparison Between Surf and Multi-Shock Forest Fire High Explosive Burn Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenfield, Nicholas Alexander [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-07-18

    PAGOSA1 has several different burn models used to model high explosive detonation. Two of these, Multi-Shock Forest Fire and Surf, are capable of modeling shock initiation. Accurately calculating shock initiation of a high explosive is important because it is a mechanism for detonation in many accident scenarios (i.e. fragment impact). Comparing the models to pop-plot data give confidence that the models are accurately calculating detonation or lack thereof. To compare the performance of these models, pop-plots2 were created from simulations where one two cm block of PBX 9502 collides with another block of PBX 9502.

  10. A spiking network model of cerebellar Purkinje cells and molecular layer interneurons exhibiting irregular firing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William eLennon

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While the anatomy of the cerebellar microcircuit is well studied, how it implements cerebellar function is not understood. A number of models have been proposed to describe this mechanism but few emphasize the role of the vast network Purkinje cells (PKJs form with the molecular layer interneurons (MLIs – the stellate and basket cells. We propose a model of the MLI-PKJ network composed of simple spiking neurons incorporating the major anatomical and physiological features. In computer simulations, the model reproduces the irregular firing patterns observed in PKJs and MLIs in vitro and a shift toward faster, more regular firing patterns when inhibitory synaptic currents are blocked. In the model, the time between PKJ spikes is shown to be proportional to the amount of feedforward inhibition from an MLI on average. The two key elements of the model are: (1 spontaneously active PKJs and MLIs due to an endogenous depolarizing current, and (2 adherence to known anatomical connectivity along a parasagittal strip of cerebellar cortex. We propose this model to extend previous spiking network models of the cerebellum and for further computational investigation into the role of irregular firing and MLIs in cerebellar learning and function.

  11. The Study on AC Susceptibility Grained Model for The High-Tc Superconductor Bi-2223

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozogul, O.

    2010-01-01

    The magnetic properties and the current transport of High-Tc ceramics are governed not only by the nature of diamagnetic grains but also by their interconnections which constitute the superconducting matrix. Such a sintered High-Tc Superconductor has two effects. One is intrinsic to the superconducting grains and the other is characteristic of the coupling between grains. These phenomena have been widely studied in order to understand the mechanisms governing the flux lines dynamic within critical-state models. While the original Bean model of the critical-state only predicts single characteristic in the imaginary part of the fundamental susceptibilities, grained Bean model, where the superconducting grains are immersed in weak superconducting matrix, predicts the typical double peak appear in the imaginary part and double transitions in the real part. The predictions of the grained Bean model for the field and temperature dependencies of the ac magnetic susceptibilities are compared with experimental results.

  12. The propagation of inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas

    2016-12-01

    There is unanimous agreement that a precise spatial representation of past landslide occurrences is a prerequisite to produce high quality statistical landslide susceptibility models. Even though perfectly accurate landslide inventories rarely exist, investigations of how landslide inventory-based errors propagate into subsequent statistical landslide susceptibility models are scarce. The main objective of this research was to systematically examine whether and how inventory-based positional inaccuracies of different magnitudes influence modelled relationships, validation results, variable importance and the visual appearance of landslide susceptibility maps. The study was conducted for a landslide-prone site located in the districts of Amstetten and Waidhofen an der Ybbs, eastern Austria, where an earth-slide point inventory was available. The methodological approach comprised an artificial introduction of inventory-based positional errors into the present landslide data set and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Positional errors were introduced by artificially changing the original landslide position by a mean distance of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 120 m. The resulting differently precise response variables were separately used to train logistic regression models. Odds ratios of predictor variables provided insights into modelled relationships. Cross-validation and spatial cross-validation enabled an assessment of predictive performances and permutation-based variable importance. All analyses were additionally carried out with synthetically generated data sets to further verify the findings under rather controlled conditions. The results revealed that an increasing positional inventory-based error was generally related to increasing distortions of modelling and validation results. However, the findings also highlighted that interdependencies between inventory-based spatial inaccuracies and statistical landslide susceptibility models are complex. The

  13. Incorporating field wind data into FIRETEC simulations of the International Crown Fire Modeling Experiment (ICFME): preliminary lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodman Linn; Kerry Anderson; Judith Winterkamp; Alyssa Broos; Michael Wotton; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Francois Pimont; Carleton Edminster

    2012-01-01

    Field experiments are one way to develop or validate wildland fire-behavior models. It is important to consider the implications of assumptions relating to the locality of measurements with respect to the fire, the temporal frequency of the measured data, and the changes to local winds that might be caused by the experimental configuration. Twenty FIRETEC simulations...

  14. An analysis of controls on fire activity in boreal Canada: comparing models built with different temporal resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Meg A. Krawchuk; John M. Little; Mike D. Flannigan; Lynn M. Gowman; Max A. Moritz

    2014-01-01

    Fire regimes of the Canadian boreal forest are driven by certain environmental factors that are highly variable from year to year (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and others that are relatively stable (e.g., land cover, topography). Studies examining the relative influence of these environmental drivers on fire activity suggest that models making explicit use of...

  15. 75 FR 5355 - Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-02

    ... COMMISSION Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling... notice of opportunity for public comment on ``NUREG-1934 (EPRI 1019195), Nuclear Power Plant Fire...) on December 29, 2009. Issues encountered during the holiday season delayed publication of...

  16. Assessing the Firing Properties of the Electrically Stimulated Auditory Nerve Using a Convolution Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahl, Stefan B; Ramekers, Dyan; Nagelkerke, Marjolijn M B; Schwarz, Konrad E; Spitzer, Philipp; Klis, Sjaak F L; Grolman, Wilko; Versnel, Huib

    2016-01-01

    The electrically evoked compound action potential (eCAP) is a routinely performed measure of the auditory nerve in cochlear implant users. Using a convolution model of the eCAP, additional information about the neural firing properties can be obtained, which may provide relevant information about the health of the auditory nerve. In this study, guinea pigs with various degrees of nerve degeneration were used to directly relate firing properties to nerve histology. The same convolution model was applied on human eCAPs to examine similarities and ultimately to examine its clinical applicability. For most eCAPs, the estimated nerve firing probability was bimodal and could be parameterised by two Gaussian distributions with an average latency difference of 0.4 ms. The ratio of the scaling factors of the late and early component increased with neural degeneration in the guinea pig. This ratio decreased with stimulation intensity in humans. The latency of the early component decreased with neural degeneration in the guinea pig. Indirectly, this was observed in humans as well, assuming that the cochlear base exhibits more neural degeneration than the apex. Differences between guinea pigs and humans were observed, among other parameters, in the width of the early component: very robust in guinea pig, and dependent on stimulation intensity and cochlear region in humans. We conclude that the deconvolution of the eCAP is a valuable addition to existing analyses, in particular as it reveals two separate firing components in the auditory nerve.

  17. Fire safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Bjoerkman, J.; Hostikka, S.; Mangs, J. [VTT Building Technology, Espoo (Finland); Huhtanen, R. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Palmen, H.; Salminen, A.; Turtola, A. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland)

    1998-07-01

    According to experience and probabilistic risk assessments, fires present a significant hazard in a nuclear power plant. Fires may be initial events for accidents or affect safety systems planned to prevent accidents and to mitigate their consequences. The project consists of theoretical work, experiments and simulations aiming to increase the fire safety at nuclear power plants. The project has four target areas: (1) to produce validated models for numerical simulation programmes, (2) to produce new information on the behavior of equipment in case of fire, (3) to study applicability of new active fire protecting systems in nuclear power plants, and (4) to obtain quantitative knowledge of ignitions induced by important electric devices in nuclear power plants. These topics have been solved mainly experimentally, but modelling at different level is used to interpret experimental data, and to allow easy generalisation and engineering use of the obtained data. Numerical fire simulation has concentrated in comparison of CFD modelling of room fires, and fire spreading on cables on experimental data. So far the success has been good to fair. A simple analytical and numerical model has been developed for fire effluents spreading beyond the room of origin in mechanically strongly ventilated compartments. For behaviour of equipment in fire several full scale and scaled down calorimetric experiments were carried out on electronic cabinets, as well as on horizontal and vertical cable trays. These were carried out to supply material for CFD numerical simulation code validation. Several analytical models were developed and validated against obtained experimental results to allow quick calculations for PSA estimates as well as inter- and extrapolations to slightly different objects. Response times of different commercial fire detectors were determined for different types of smoke, especially emanating from smoldering and flaming cables to facilitate selection of proper detector

  18. Complex Behavior in an Integrate-and-Fire Neuron Model Based on Small World Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Min; CHEN Tian-Lun

    2005-01-01

    Based on our previously pulse-coupled integrate-and-fire neuron model in small world networks, we investigate the complex behavior of electroencephalographic (EEG)-like activities produced by such a model. We find EEG-like activities have obvious chaotic characteristics. We also analyze the complex behaviors of EEG-like signals,such as spectral analysis, reconstruction of the phase space, the correlation dimension, and so on.

  19. Measurements of a 1/4-scale model of an explosives firing chamber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pastrnak, J.W.; Baker, C.F.; Simmons, L.F.

    1995-01-27

    In anticipation of increasingly stringent environmental regulations, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes to construct a 60-kg firing chamber to provide blast-effects containment for most of its open-air, high-explosive, firing operations. Even though these operations are within current environmental limits, containment of the blast effects and hazardous debris will further drastically reduce emissions to the environment and minimize the generated hazardous waste. The major design consideration of such a chamber is its overall structural dynamic response in terms of long-term containment of all blast effects from repeated internal detonations of high explosives. Another concern is how much other portions of the facility outside the firing chamber must be hardened to ensure personnel protection in the event of an accidental detonation while the chamber door is open. To assess these concerns, a 1/4-scale replica model of the planned contained firing chamber was designed, constructed, and tested with scaled explosive charges ranging from 25 to 125% of the operational explosives limit of 60 kg. From 16 detonations of high explosives, 880 resulting strains, blast pressures, and temperatures within the model were measured to provide information for the final design. Factors of safety for dynamic yield of the firing chamber structure were calculated and compared to the design criterion of totally elastic response. The rectangular, reinforced-concrete chamber model exhibited a lightly damped vibrational response that placed the structure in alternating cycles of tension and compression. During compression, both the reinforcing steel and the concrete remained elastic.

  20. Modelling thermal radiation from one-meter diameter methane pool fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consalvi, J. L.; Demarco, R.

    2012-06-01

    The first objective of this article is to implement a comprehensive radiation model in order to predict the radiant fractions and radiative fluxes on remote surfaces in large-scale methane pool fires. The second aim is to quantify the importance of Turbulence-Radiation Interactions (TRIs) in such buoyant flames. The fire-induced flow is modelled by using a buoyancy-modified k-ɛ model and the Steady Laminar Flamelet (SLF) model coupled with a presumed probability density function (pdf) approach. Spectral radiation is modelled by using the Full-Spectrum Correlated-k (FSCK) method. TRIs are taken into account by considering the Optically-Thin Fluctuation Approximation (OTFA). The emission term and the mean absorption coefficient are closed by using a presumed pdf of the mixture fraction, scalar dissipation rate and enthalpy defect. Two 1m-diameter fires with Heat Release Rates (HRR) of 49 kW and 162 kW were simulated. Predicted radiant fractions and radiative heat fluxes are found in reasonable agreement with experimental data. The importance of TRIs is evidenced, computed radiant fractions and radiative heat fluxes being considerably higher than those obtained from calculations based on mean properties. Finally, model results show that the complete absorption coefficient-Planck function correlation should be considered in order to properly take into account the influence of TRIs on the emission term, whereas the absorption coefficient self-correlation in the absorption term reduces significantly the radiant fractions.

  1. Sodium spray and jet fire model development within the CONTAIN-LMR code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scholtyssek, W. [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Neutronenphysik und Reaktortechnik; Murata, K.K. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1993-12-31

    An assessment was made of the sodium spray fire model implemented in the CONTAIN code. The original droplet burn model, which was based on the NACOM code, was improved in several aspects, especially concerning evaluation of the droplet burning rate, reaction chemistry and heat balance, spray geometry and droplet motion, and consistency with CONTAIN standards of gas property evaluation. An additional droplet burning model based on a proposal by Krolikowski was made available to include the effect of the chemical equilibrium conditions at the flame temperature. The models were validated against single-droplet burn experiments as well as spray and jet fire experiments. Reasonable agreement was found between the two burn models and experimental data. When the gas temperature in the burning compartment reaches high values, the Krolikowski model seems to be preferable. Critical parameters for spray fire evaluation were found to be the spray characterization, especially the droplet size, which largely determines the burning efficiency, and heat transfer conditions at the interface between the atmosphere and structures, which controls the thermal hydraulic behavior in the burn compartment.

  2. An Integrated Model for Identifying Linkages Between the Management of Fuel Treatments, Fire and Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, R. R.; Anderson, S.; Moritz, M.; Plantinga, A.; Tague, C.

    2015-12-01

    Vegetation fuel treatments (e.g. thinning, prescribed burning) are a frequent tool for managing fire-prone landscapes. However, predicting how fuel treatments may affect future wildfire risk and associated ecosystem services, such as forest water availability and streamflow, remains a challenge. This challenge is in part due to the large range of conditions under which fuel treatments may be implemented, as response is likely to vary with species type, rates of vegetation regrowth, meteorological conditions and physiographic properties of the treated site. It is also due to insufficient understanding of how social factors such as political pressure, public demands and economic constraints affect fuel management decisions. To examine the feedbacks between ecological and social dimensions of fuel treatments, we present an integrated model that links a biophysical model that simulates vegetation and hydrology (RHESSys), a fire spread model (WMFire) and an empirical fuel treatment model that accounts for agency decision-making. We use this model to investigate how management decisions affect landscape fuel loads, which in turn affect fire severity and ecosystem services, which feedback to management decisions on fuel treatments. We hypothesize that this latter effect will be driven by salience theory, which predicts that fuel treatments are more likely to occur following major wildfire events. The integrated model provides a flexible framework for answering novel questions about fuel treatments that span social and ecological domains, areas that have previously been treated separately.

  3. Evaluating machine learning and statistical prediction techniques for landslide susceptibility modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, J. N.; Brenning, A.; Petschko, H.; Leopold, P.

    2015-08-01

    Statistical and now machine learning prediction methods have been gaining popularity in the field of landslide susceptibility modeling. Particularly, these data driven approaches show promise when tackling the challenge of mapping landslide prone areas for large regions, which may not have sufficient geotechnical data to conduct physically-based methods. Currently, there is no best method for empirical susceptibility modeling. Therefore, this study presents a comparison of traditional statistical and novel machine learning models applied for regional scale landslide susceptibility modeling. These methods were evaluated by spatial k-fold cross-validation estimation of the predictive performance, assessment of variable importance for gaining insights into model behavior and by the appearance of the prediction (i.e. susceptibility) map. The modeling techniques applied were logistic regression (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), weights of evidence (WOE), the support vector machine (SVM), random forest classification (RF), and bootstrap aggregated classification trees (bundling) with penalized discriminant analysis (BPLDA). These modeling methods were tested for three areas in the province of Lower Austria, Austria. The areas are characterized by different geological and morphological settings. Random forest and bundling classification techniques had the overall best predictive performances. However, the performances of all modeling techniques were for the majority not significantly different from each other; depending on the areas of interest, the overall median estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) differences ranged from 2.9 to 8.9 percentage points. The overall median estimated true positive rate (TPR) measured at a 10% false positive rate (FPR) differences ranged from 11 to 15pp. The relative importance of each predictor was generally different between the modeling methods. However, slope angle, surface roughness and plan

  4. Improving Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Using an Empirical Threshold Scheme for Excluding Landslide Deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F.; Lai, J. S.; Chiang, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    Landslides are frequently triggered by typhoons and earthquakes in Taiwan, causing serious economic losses and human casualties. Remotely sensed images and geo-spatial data consisting of land-cover and environmental information have been widely used for producing landslide inventories and causative factors for slope stability analysis. Landslide susceptibility, on the other hand, can represent the spatial likelihood of landslide occurrence and is an important basis for landslide risk assessment. As multi-temporal satellite images become popular and affordable, they are commonly used to generate landslide inventories for subsequent analysis. However, it is usually difficult to distinguish different landslide sub-regions (scarp, debris flow, deposition etc.) directly from remote sensing imagery. Consequently, the extracted landslide extents using image-based visual interpretation and automatic detections may contain many depositions that may reduce the fidelity of the landslide susceptibility model. This study developed an empirical thresholding scheme based on terrain characteristics for eliminating depositions from detected landslide areas to improve landslide susceptibility modeling. In this study, Bayesian network classifier is utilized to build a landslide susceptibility model and to predict sequent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Shimen reservoir watershed located in northern Taiwan. Eleven causative factors are considered, including terrain slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, geology, land-use, NDVI, soil, distance to fault, river and road. Landslide areas detected using satellite images acquired before and after eight typhoons between 2004 to 2008 are collected as the main inventory for training and verification. In the analysis, previous landslide events are used as training data to predict the samples of the next event. The results are then compared with recorded landslide areas in the inventory to evaluate the accuracy. Experimental results

  5. Research and Application of Fire Forecasting Model for Electric Transmission Lines Incorporating Meteorological Data and Human Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiazheng Lu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there is a rise in frequency of fires which pose a serious threat to the safety operation of electric transmission lines. Several ultrahigh voltage (UHV electric transmission lines, including Fufeng line, Jinsu line, Longzheng line, and Changnan line, showed many times tripping or bipolar latching caused by fire disasters. Fire disasters have tended to be the biggest threat to the safety operation of electric transmission lines and even can cause power grid collapse in some severe situations. Researchers have made much research on fires forecasting. However, these studies are mainly concentrated on predicting fires based on measured or forecasting meteorological data and do not take into account the effect of human activities. In fact, fire disasters have a very close relationship with human activities. In our research, a fire prediction model is proposed incorporating meteorological data as well as human activities. And this model is applied in Hunan province and Anhui province, which seriously suffer from fire disasters. The results show that the model has good prediction precision and can be a powerful tool for practical application.

  6. Statistics of a leaky integrate-and-fire model of neurons driven by dichotomous noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Romi; Lumi, Neeme

    2016-05-01

    The behavior of a stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire model of neurons is considered. The effect of temporally correlated random neuronal input is modeled as a colored two-level (dichotomous) Markovian noise. Relying on the Riemann method, exact expressions for the output interspike interval density and for the serial correlation coefficient are derived, and their dependence on noise parameters (such as correlation time and amplitude) is analyzed. Particularly, noise-induced sign reversal and a resonancelike amplification of the kurtosis of the interspike interval distribution are established. The features of spike statistics, analytically revealed in our study, are compared with recently obtained results for a perfect integrate-and-fire neuron model.

  7. A novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land Surface Model applied to a Re-assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2014-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE. This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP (Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution.Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  8. AC susceptibility studies of grain-aligned superconductors by grained Bean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakamoto, Nobuyoshi; Akune, Tadahiro [Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Kyushu Sangyo University, 2-3-1 Matsukadai, Fukuoka (Japan); Matsumoto, Yasukuni, E-mail: saka@te.kyusan-u.ac.j [Department of Electrical Engineering, Fukuoka University, 8-19-1 Nanakuma Fukuoka (Japan)

    2009-03-01

    AC susceptibility of low-T{sub c} metallic superconductors shows smooth transition in the in-phase chi' and a peak in the out-phase chi''. High-T{sub c} oxide superconductors with anisotropic and grain-textured structures show deformed complex characteristics, such as double peaks in chi'' and shoulders in chi'. Instead of simple Bean model, a grained Bean model, where the superconducting grains is immersed in weak superconducting matrix, are proposed. The susceptibilities numerically analyzed using the grained Bean model show varied and deformed curves as observed in the high-T{sub c} superconductors. From the dependence of chi' and chi'' on temperatures T and DC magnetic fields B{sub dc} in grain-aligned Hg(Re)-1223 superconductors, textures of grains and interconnecting links and their grain-aligned nature can be estimated.

  9. AC susceptibility studies of grain-aligned superconductors by grained Bean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Nobuyoshi; Akune, Tadahiro; Matsumoto, Yasukuni

    2009-03-01

    AC susceptibility of low-Tc metallic superconductors shows smooth transition in the in-phase χ' and a peak in the out-phase χ". High-Tc oxide superconductors with anisotropic and grain-textured structures show deformed complex characteristics, such as double peaks in χ" and shoulders in χ'. Instead of simple Bean model, a grained Bean model, where the superconducting grains is immersed in weak superconducting matrix, are proposed. The susceptibilities numerically analyzed using the grained Bean model show varied and deformed curves as observed in the high-Tc superconductors. From the dependence of χ' and χ" on temperatures T and DC magnetic fields Bdc in grain-aligned Hg(Re)-1223 superconductors, textures of grains and interconnecting links and their grain-aligned nature can be estimated.

  10. Modeling of biomass smoke injection into the lower stratosphere by a large forest fire (Part I: reference simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Trentmann

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fires in boreal regions have the potential to initiate deep convection, so-called pyro-convection, due to their release of sensible heat. Under favorable atmospheric conditions, large fires can result in pyro-convection that transports the emissions into the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Here, we present three-dimensional model simulations of the injection of fire emissions into the lower stratosphere by pyro-convection. These model simulations are constrained and evaluated with observations obtained from the Chisholm fire in Alberta, Canada, in 2001. The active tracer high resolution atmospheric model (ATHAM is initialized with observations obtained by radiosonde. Information on the fire forcing is obtained from ground-based observations of the mass and moisture of the burned fuel. Based on radar observations, the pyro-convection reached an altitude of about 13 km, well above the tropopause, which was located at about 11.2 km. The model simulation yields a similarly strong convection with an overshoot of the convection above the tropopause. The main outflow from the pyro-convection occurs at about 10.6 km, but a significant fraction (about 8% of the emitted mass of the smoke aerosol is transported above the tropopause. In contrast to regular convection, the region with maximum updraft velocity in the pyro-convection is located close to the surface above the fire. This results in high updraft velocities >10 m s−1 at cloud base. The temperature anomaly in the plume decreases rapidly with height from values above 50 K at the fire to about 5 K at about 3000 m above the fire. While the sensible heat released from the fire is responsible for the initiation of convection in the model, the release of latent heat from condensation and freezing dominates the overall energy budget. Emissions of water vapor from the fire do not significantly contribute to the energy budget of the convection.

  11. Modeling flame structure in wildland fires using the one-dimensional turbulence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    David O. Lignell; Elizabeth I. Monson; Mark A. Finney

    2010-01-01

    The mechanism of flame propagation in wildland fire fuel beds is of critical importance for understanding and quantifying fire spread rates. Recent observations and experiments have indicated the dominance of flame propagation by direct contact between flames and unburnt fuel, as opposed to propagation via radiative heating alone. It is postulated that effects of...

  12. Modelling and mitigating dose to firefighters from inhalation of radionuclides in wildland fire smoke.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viner, Brian J. [Savannah River National Laboratory, Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC

    2015-06-12

    Firefighters responding to wildland fires where surface litter and vegetation contain radiological contamination will receive a radiological dose by inhaling resuspended radioactive material in the smoke. This may increase their lifetime risk of contracting certain types of cancer. Using published data, we modelled hypothetical radionuclide emissions, dispersion and dose for 70th and 97th percentile environmental conditions and for average and high fuel loads at the Savannah River Site. We predicted downwind concentration and potential dose to firefighters for radionuclides of interest (137Cs, 238Pu, 90Sr and 210Po). Predicted concentrations exceeded dose guidelines in the base case scenario emissions of 1.0 x 107Bq ha-1 for 238Pu at 70th percentile environmental conditions and average fuel load levels for both 4- and 14-h shifts. Under 97th percentile environmental conditions and high fuel loads, dose guidelines were exceeded for several reported cases for 90Sr, 238Pu and 210Po. The potential for exceeding dose guidelines was mitigated by including plume rise (>2ms-1) or moving a small distance from the fire owing to large concentration gradients near the edge of the fire. This approach can quickly estimate potential dose from airborne radionuclides in wildland fire and assist decision-making to reduce firefighter exposure.

  13. Modeling and numerical analysis of granite rock specimen under mechanical loading and fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc Leroy Ngueyep. Mambou

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The effect of ISO 834 fire on the mechanical properties of granite rock specimen submitted to uniaxial loading is numerically investigated. Based on Newton's second law, the rate-equation model of granite rock specimen under mechanical load and fire is established. The effect of heat treatment on the mechanical performance of granite is analyzed at the center and the ends of specimen. At the free end of granite rock specimen, it is shown that from 20 °C to 500 °C, the internal stress and internal strain are weak; whereas above 500 °C, they start to increase rapidly, announcing the imminent collapse. At the center of specimen, the analysis of the internal stress and internal strain reveals that the fire reduces the mechanical performance of granite significantly. Moreover, it is found that after 3 min of exposure to fire, the mechanical energy necessary to fragment the granite can be reduced up to 80%.

  14. Application of a hybrid model of neural networks and genetic algorithms to evaluate landslide susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H. B.; Li, J. W.; Zhou, B.; Yuan, Z. Q.; Chen, Y. P.

    2013-03-01

    In the last few decades, the development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology has provided a method for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility and hazard. Slope units were found to be appropriate for the fundamental morphological elements in landslide susceptibility evaluation. Following the DEM construction in a loess area susceptible to landslides, the direct-reverse DEM technology was employed to generate 216 slope units in the studied area. After a detailed investigation, the landslide inventory was mapped in which 39 landslides, including paleo-landslides, old landslides and recent landslides, were present. Of the 216 slope units, 123 involved landslides. To analyze the mechanism of these landslides, six environmental factors were selected to evaluate landslide occurrence: slope angle, aspect, the height and shape of the slope, distance to river and human activities. These factors were extracted in terms of the slope unit within the ArcGIS software. The spatial analysis demonstrates that most of the landslides are located on convex slopes at an elevation of 100-150 m with slope angles from 135°-225° and 40°-60°. Landslide occurrence was then checked according to these environmental factors using an artificial neural network with back propagation, optimized by genetic algorithms. A dataset of 120 slope units was chosen for training the neural network model, i.e., 80 units with landslide presence and 40 units without landslide presence. The parameters of genetic algorithms and neural networks were then set: population size of 100, crossover probability of 0.65, mutation probability of 0.01, momentum factor of 0.60, learning rate of 0.7, max learning number of 10 000, and target error of 0.000001. After training on the datasets, the susceptibility of landslides was mapped for the land-use plan and hazard mitigation. Comparing the susceptibility map with landslide inventory, it was noted that the prediction accuracy of landslide occurrence

  15. Afforestation, subsequent forest fires and provision of hydrological services: a model-based analysis for a Mediterranean mountainous catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Naranjo Quintanilla, Paula; Santos, Juliana; Serpa, Dalila; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Rocha, João; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Keesstra, Saskia

    2017-04-01

    Mediterranean landscapes have experienced extensive abandonment and reforestation in recent decades, which should have improved the provision of hydrological services, such as flood mitigation, soil erosion protection and water quality regulation. However, these forests are fire-prone, and the post-fire increase in runoff, erosion and sediment exports could negatively affect service provision. This issue was assessed using the SWAT model for a small mountain agroforestry catchment, which was monitored between 2010 and 2014 and where some eucalypt stands burned in 2011 and were subsequently plowed for replanting. The model was calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment yield and erosion in agricultural fields and the burnt hillslopes, showing that it can be adapted for post-fire simulation. It was then used to perform a decadal assessment of surface runoff, erosion, and sediment exports between 2004 and 2014. Results show that the fire did not noticeably affect flood mitigation but that it increased erosion by 3 orders of magnitude, which subsequently increased sediment yield. Erosion in the burnt forest during this decade was one order of magnitude above that in agricultural fields. SWAT was also used to assess different fire and land-use scenarios during the same period. Results indicate that the impacts of fire were lower without post-fire soil management, and when the fire occurred in pine forests (i.e. before the 1990s) or in shrublands (i.e. before afforestation in the 1930s). These impacts were robust to changes in post-fire weather conditions and to a lower fire frequency (20-year intervals). The results suggest that, in the long term, fire-prone forests might not provide the anticipated soil protection and water quality regulation services in wet Mediterranean regions.

  16. Model-based Control of a Bottom Fired Marine Boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Karstensen, Claus M. S.; Andersen, Palle;

    This paper focuses on applying model based MIMO control to minimize variations in water level for a specific boiler type. A first principles model is put up. The model is linearized and an LQG controller is designed. Furthermore the benefit of using a steam °ow measurement is compared to a strategy...... relying on estimates of the disturbance. Preliminary tests at the boiler system show that the designed controller is able to control the boiler process. Furthermore it can be concluded that relying on estimates of the steam flow in the control strategy does not decrease the controller performance...

  17. Model-based Control of a Bottom Fired Marine Boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Karstensen, Claus M. S.; Andersen, Palle;

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on applying model based MIMO control to minimize variations in water level for a specific boiler type. A first principles model is put up. The model is linearized and an LQG controller is designed. Furthermore the benefit of using a steam °ow measurement is compared to a strategy...... relying on estimates of the disturbance. Preliminary tests at the boiler system show that the designed controller is able to control the boiler process. Furthermore it can be concluded that relying on estimates of the steam flow in the control strategy does not decrease the controller performance...

  18. Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire

  19. A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

    2016-12-01

    Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal

  20. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.

    2016-04-01

    Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography

  1. An Information Perception-Based Emotion Contagion Model for Fire Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting Ting; Liu, Zhen; Ma, Minhua; Xuan, Rongrong; Chen, Tian; Lu, Tao; Yu, Lipeng

    2017-03-01

    In fires, people are easier to lose their mind. Panic will lead to irrational behavior and irreparable tragedy. It has great practical significance to make contingency plans for crowd evacuation in fires. However, existing studies about crowd simulation always paid much attention on the crowd density, but little attention on emotional contagion that may cause a panic. Based on settings about information space and information sharing, this paper proposes an emotional contagion model for crowd in panic situations. With the proposed model, a behavior mechanism is constructed for agents in the crowd and a prototype of system is developed for crowd simulation. Experiments are carried out to verify the proposed model. The results showed that the spread of panic not only related to the crowd density and the individual comfort level, but also related to people's prior knowledge of fire evacuation. The model provides a new way for safety education and evacuation management. It is possible to avoid and reduce unsafe factors in the crowd with the lowest cost.

  2. Modeling thalamocortical cell: impact of Ca2+ channel distribution and cell geometry on firing pattern

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Zomorrodi

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of calcium channel distribution and geometry of the thalamocortical cell upon its tonic firing and the low threshold spike (LTS generation was studied in a 3-compartment model, which represents soma, proximal and distal dendrites as well as in multi-compartment model using the morphology of a real reconstructed neuron. Using an uniform distribution of Ca2+ channels, we determined the minimal number of low threshold voltage-activated calcium channels and their permeability required for the onset of LTS in response to a hyperpolarizing current pulse. In the 3-compartment model, we found that the channel distribution influences the firing pattern only in the range of 3% below the threshold value of total T-channel density. In the multi-compartmental model, the LTS could be generated by only 64% of unequally distributed T-channels compared to the minimal number of equally distributed T-channels. For a given channel density and injected current, the tonic firing frequency was found to be inversely proportional to the size of the cell. However, when the Ca2+ channel density was elevated in soma or proximal dendrites, then the amplitude of LTS response and burst spike frequencies were determined by the ratio of total to threshold number of T-channels in the cell for a specific geometry.

  3. Modeling Thalamocortical Cell: Impact of Ca2+ Channel Distribution and Cell Geometry on Firing Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zomorrodi, Reza; Kröger, Helmut; Timofeev, Igor

    2008-01-01

    The influence of calcium channel distribution and geometry of the thalamocortical cell upon its tonic firing and the low threshold spike (LTS) generation was studied in a 3-compartment model, which represents soma, proximal and distal dendrites as well as in multi-compartment model using the morphology of a real reconstructed neuron. Using an uniform distribution of Ca2+ channels, we determined the minimal number of low threshold voltage-activated calcium channels and their permeability required for the onset of LTS in response to a hyperpolarizing current pulse. In the 3-compartment model, we found that the channel distribution influences the firing pattern only in the range of 3% below the threshold value of total T-channel density. In the multi-compartmental model, the LTS could be generated by only 64% of unequally distributed T-channels compared to the minimal number of equally distributed T-channels. For a given channel density and injected current, the tonic firing frequency was found to be inversely proportional to the size of the cell. However, when the Ca2+ channel density was elevated in soma or proximal dendrites, then the amplitude of LTS response and burst spike frequencies were determined by the ratio of total to threshold number of T-channels in the cell for a specific geometry. PMID:19129908

  4. Effects of wildland fire smoke on a tree-roosting bat: integrating a plume model, field measurements, and mammalian dose-response relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.B. Dickinson; J.C. Norris; A.S. Bova; R.L. Kremens; V. Young; M.J. Lacki

    2010-01-01

    Faunal injury and mortality in wildland fires is a concern for wildlife and fire management although little work has been done on the mechanisms by which exposures cause their effects. In this paper, we use an integral plume model, field measurements, and models of carbon monoxide and heat effects to explore risk to tree-roosting bats during prescribed fires in mixed-...

  5. Paleodata-model integration reveals uncertain boreal forest carbon balance due to rapid recent fire regime change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, R.; Genet, H.; McGuire, D.; Hu, F.

    2013-12-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase the frequency and severity of natural fires in the boreal forest biome. Boreal forests represent >30% of terrestrial carbon (C) stocks, and fire is a key component of the C cycle in these ecosystems. However, predictions of fire-regime change face substantial uncertainty, largely because complex fire-climate-vegetation interactions are poorly characterized in brief observational records. Furthermore, previous studies suggest that model projections of future C dynamics are sensitive to assumptions about the prehistoric fire regime. Paleofire reconstructions offer valuable insights to address these limitations. We collected 14 lake-sediment cores from the Yukon Flats, Alaska to elucidate patterns of long-term environmental change. We then converted fire-regime reconstructions from these data to input drivers for the Dynamic Organic Soils version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM). Combined with simulated paleoclimate from an Earth System Model and CO2 data from ice core analysis, these 'paleo-forcing' data allowed us to model past changes in ecosystem C storage in our study area to (1) assess the relative importance of climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and fire in driving C dynamics of the past millennium, and (2) evaluate the effect of assumptions about prehistoric fire regime on predictions of current and future boreal-forest C balance. Fire-regime variations were the dominant control on simulated C storage, producing fluctuations of ~3 kg C/m2 (~25% of total ecosystem C) on centennial timescales. By comparison, climate and CO2 concentration played minor roles. Fire frequency shifts were particularly influential, suggesting that the role of fire in dictating stand age distribution at the landscape scale is of paramount importance to net C dynamics. That shifts in fire-regime were responsible for large and rapid losses of C in the past emphasizes the importance of incorporating fire into methodologies that

  6. Engineering bed models for solid fuel conversion process in grate-fired boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, M.; Massarotti, N.; Indrizzi, V.

    2014-01-01

    A comparison between two numerical models describing the thermo-chemical conversion process of a solid fuel bed in a grate-fired boiler is presented. Both models consider the incoming biomass as subjected to drying, pyrolysis, gasification and combustion. In the first approach the biomass bed...... of the syngas predicted by the two models is equal to about 7%. The application to different types of biomass shows that the difference in the predictions increases as the carbon content grows. The phenomenological model, in fact, generally considers higher conversion rates of this element to volatiles...

  7. Forkome Model Application for Prognosis of Forest Fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozak Ihor

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the perspectives of FORKOME model use regarding the simulation of fre and its impact on forest stands. The calculation of probability of forest fres and predicting its effect on forest stands are analysed as well. The model is supposed to examine the impact of fres on pine stands, which ultimately leads to a decline in the viability of those trees. As a result of fre activity there were determined the following categories of trees - undamaged, slightly damaged, heavily damaged and destroyed. Moreover, by conducting simulations on forests with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L., there were demonstrated the possibilities of FORKOME model practical application. Simulation shows the possibility of the model to predict the fre damage in a particular year and the perspective of a stand development, taking into account climate change and its influence on the frequency of fres. Prospects and directions of further developments of the model concerning simulation of fre in forest stands were discussed as well.

  8. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Linden, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local...... point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best “LFP proxy”, we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with “ground-truth” LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected...... into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP...

  9. Numerical modelling of a stoker furnace operated under indirect co-firing of biomass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Litka Rafał

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the CFD analysis presented in this paper is the process of biomass indirect co-firing carried out in a system composed of a stoker-fired furnace coupled with a gasification reactor. The installation is characterised by its compact structure, which makes it possible to minimise heat losses to the environment and enhance the physical enthalpy of the oxidising agent – flue gases – having a favourable chemical composition with oxygen and water vapour. The test results provided tools for modelling of biomass thermal processing using a non-standard oxidiser in the form of flue gases. The obtained models were used to optimise the indirect co-combustion process to reduce emissions. An overall effect of co-combustion of gas from biomass gasification in the stoker furnace is the substantial reduction in NO emissions by about 22%.

  10. Evaluation of smoke dispersion from forest fire plumes using lidar experiments and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavrov, Alexander; Utkin, Andrei B. [INOV-INESC-Inovacao, Rua Alves Redol, 9, 1000-029, Lisbon (Portugal); Vilar, Rui; Fernandes, Armando [Departamento de Engenharia de Materiais, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2006-09-15

    The dispersion of forest fire smoke was studied using direct-detection lidar measurements and a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes fluid dynamics model. Comparison between experimental and theoretical results showed that the model adequately describes the influence of the main factors affecting the dispersion of a hot smoke plume in the presence of wind, taking into consideration turbulent mixing, the influence of wind, and the action of buoyancy, and proved that lidar measurements are an appropriate tool for the semi-qualitative analysis of forest fire smoke plume evolution and prediction of lidar sensitivity and range for reliable smoke detection. It was also demonstrated that analysis of lidar signals using Klett's inversion method allows the internal three-dimensional structure of the smoke plumes to be semi-quantitatively determined and the absolute value of smoke-particle concentration to be estimated. (author)

  11. Practical approximation method for firing-rate models of coupled neural networks with correlated inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreiro, Andrea K.; Ly, Cheng

    2017-08-01

    Rapid experimental advances now enable simultaneous electrophysiological recording of neural activity at single-cell resolution across large regions of the nervous system. Models of this neural network activity will necessarily increase in size and complexity, thus increasing the computational cost of simulating them and the challenge of analyzing them. Here we present a method to approximate the activity and firing statistics of a general firing rate network model (of the Wilson-Cowan type) subject to noisy correlated background inputs. The method requires solving a system of transcendental equations and is fast compared to Monte Carlo simulations of coupled stochastic differential equations. We implement the method with several examples of coupled neural networks and show that the results are quantitatively accurate even with moderate coupling strengths and an appreciable amount of heterogeneity in many parameters. This work should be useful for investigating how various neural attributes qualitatively affect the spiking statistics of coupled neural networks.

  12. Detecting phase transitions and crossovers in Hubbard models using the fidelity susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Li; Wang, Yilin; Wang, Lei; Werner, Philipp

    2016-12-01

    A generalized version of the fidelity susceptibility of single-band and multiorbital Hubbard models is systematically studied using single-site dynamical mean-field theory in combination with a hybridization expansion continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo impurity solver. We find that the fidelity susceptibility is extremely sensitive to changes in the state of the system. It can be used as a numerically inexpensive tool to detect and characterize a broad range of phase transitions and crossovers in Hubbard models, including (orbital-selective) Mott metal-insulator transitions, magnetic phase transitions, high-spin to low-spin transitions, Fermi-liquid to non-Fermi-liquid crossovers, and spin-freezing crossovers.

  13. Linking susceptibility genes and pathogenesis mechanisms using mouse models of systemic lupus erythematosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve P. Crampton

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE represents a challenging autoimmune disease from a clinical perspective because of its varied forms of presentation. Although broad-spectrum steroids remain the standard treatment for SLE, they have many side effects and only provide temporary relief from the symptoms of the disease. Thus, gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic traits and biological pathways that confer susceptibility to SLE will help in the design of more targeted and effective therapeutics. Both human genome-wide association studies (GWAS and investigations using a variety of mouse models of SLE have been valuable for the identification of the genes and pathways involved in pathogenesis. In this Review, we link human susceptibility genes for SLE with biological pathways characterized in mouse models of lupus, and discuss how the mechanistic insights gained could advance drug discovery for the disease.

  14. Linking susceptibility genes and pathogenesis mechanisms using mouse models of systemic lupus erythematosus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crampton, Steve P.; Morawski, Peter A.; Bolland, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) represents a challenging autoimmune disease from a clinical perspective because of its varied forms of presentation. Although broad-spectrum steroids remain the standard treatment for SLE, they have many side effects and only provide temporary relief from the symptoms of the disease. Thus, gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic traits and biological pathways that confer susceptibility to SLE will help in the design of more targeted and effective therapeutics. Both human genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and investigations using a variety of mouse models of SLE have been valuable for the identification of the genes and pathways involved in pathogenesis. In this Review, we link human susceptibility genes for SLE with biological pathways characterized in mouse models of lupus, and discuss how the mechanistic insights gained could advance drug discovery for the disease. PMID:25147296

  15. CHARACTERIZATION AND MODELING OF THE FORMS OF MERCURY FROM COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis L. Laudal

    2001-08-01

    The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAAs) required the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to determine whether the presence of mercury in the stack emissions from fossil fuel-fired electric utility power plants poses an unacceptable public health risk. EPA's conclusions and recommendations were presented in the Mercury Study Report to Congress (1) and the Utility Air Toxics Report to Congress (1). The first report addressed both the human health and environmental effects of anthropogenic mercury emissions, while the second addressed the risk to public health posed by the emission of mercury and other hazardous air pollutants from steam-electric generating units. Given the current state of the art, these reports did not state that mercury controls on coal-fired electric power stations would be required. However, they did indicate that EPA views mercury as a potential threat to human health. In fact, in December 2000, the EPA issued an intent to regulate for mercury from coal-fired boilers. However, it is clear that additional research needs to be done in order to develop economical and effective mercury control strategies. To accomplish this objective, it is necessary to understand mercury behavior in coal-fired power plants. The markedly different chemical and physical properties of the different mercury forms generated during coal combustion appear to impact the effectiveness of various mercury control strategies. The original Characterization and Modeling of the Forms of Mercury from Coal-Fired Power Plants project had two tasks. The first was to collect enough data such that mercury speciation could be predicted based on relatively simple inputs such as coal analyses and plant configuration. The second was to field-validate the Ontario Hydro mercury speciation method (at the time, it had only been validated at the pilot-scale level). However, after sampling at two power plants (the Ontario Hydro method was validated at one of them), the EPA issued

  16. Verification of the Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model During Fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, K.L.; Leeuw, G. de; Gathman, S.G.; Jensen, D.R.

    1990-01-01

    The Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model (NOVAM) has been formulated to estimate the vertical structure of the optical and infrared extinction coefficients in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), for waverengths between 0,2 and 40 um. NOVAM was designed to predict, utilizing a set of routin

  17. Use of fire spread and hydrology models to target forest management on a municipal watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anurag Srivastava; William J. Elliot; Joan Wu

    2015-01-01

    A small town relies on a forested watershed for its water supply. The forest is at risk for a wildfire. To reduce this risk, some of the watershed will be thinned followed by a prescribed burn. This paper reports on a study to evaluate the impact of such watershed disturbances on water yield. To target management activities, a fire spread model was applied to the...

  18. Fire Growth Models and Software%林火增长模型及应用软件

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田晓瑞; 舒立福; 王明玉

    2012-01-01

    火增长模型可以预测将要发生的林火行为,指导林火扑救和评估林火管理政策。文中分析了影响火模拟的主要因子,对当前主要的火增长模型,包括经验模型、半经验模型和物理模型进行了概述,并列举了应用比较广泛的火增长模拟软件包括Prometheus,Behave Plus和Farsite等的主要特征,讨论了火增长物理模型的局限性及未来发展方向。%Fire growth model can predict fire behavior,which can guide fire fighting activities and assesses fire management policies.This paper analyzed the main factors affecting fire simulation,and summaried the current growth models including empirical,semi-empirical and physical models.The widely used fire growth simulation softwares were outlined in the paper,which include Prometheus,Behave Plus,Farsite,etc.Finally,the paper discussed the limitations of fire growth models and their future development.

  19. Investigating fire emissions and smoke transport during the Summer of 2013 using an operational smoke modeling system and chemical transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONeill, S. M.; Chung, S. H.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M. E.; Solomon, R. C.; Rorig, M.

    2014-12-01

    Emissions from fires in the Western US are substantial and can impact air quality and regional climate. Many methods exist that estimate the particulate and gaseous emissions from fires, including those run operationally for use with chemical forecast models. The US Forest Service Smartfire2/BlueSky modeling framework uses satellite data and reported information about fire perimeters to estimate emissions of pollutants to the atmosphere. The emission estimates are used as inputs to dispersion models, such as HYSPLIT, and chemical transport models, such as CMAQ and WRF-Chem, to assess the chemical and physical impacts of fires on the atmosphere. Here we investigate the use of Smartfire2/BlueSky and WRF-Chem to simulate emissions from the 2013 fire summer fire season, with special focus on the Rim Fire in northern California. The 2013 Rim Fire ignited on August 17 and eventually burned more than 250,000 total acres before being contained on October 24. Large smoke plumes and pyro-convection events were observed. In this study, the Smartfire2/BlueSky operational emission estimates are compared to other estimation methods, such as the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) and other global databases to quantify variations in emission estimation methods for this wildfire event. The impact of the emissions on downwind chemical composition is investigated with the coupled meteorology-chemistry WRF-Chem model. The inclusion of aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions in the model framework enables the evaluation of the downwind impacts of the fire plume. The emissions and modeled chemistry can also be evaluated with data collected from the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) aircraft field campaign, which intersected the fire plume.

  20. Neural Network-Based Model for Landslide Susceptibility and Soil Longitudinal Profile Analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrokhzad, F.; Barari, Amin; Choobbasti, A. J.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to create an empirical model for assessing the landslide risk potential at Savadkouh Azad University, which is located in the rural surroundings of Savadkouh, about 5 km from the city of Pol-Sefid in northern Iran. The soil longitudinal profile of the city of Babol......, located 25 km from the Caspian Sea, also was predicted with an artificial neural network (ANN). A multilayer perceptron neural network model was applied to the landslide area and was used to analyze specific elements in the study area that contributed to previous landsliding events. The ANN models were...... studies in landslide susceptibility zonation....

  1. Continuous Forest Fire Propagation in a Local Small World Network Model

    CERN Document Server

    Aguayo, F; Clerc, J -P; Porterie, B

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a new continuous forest fire model implemented as a weighted local small-world network approach. This new approach was designed to simulate fire patterns in real, heterogeneous landscapes. The wildland fire spread is simulated on a square lattice in which each cell represents an area of the land's surface. The interaction between burning and non-burning cells, in the present work induced by flame radiation, may be extended well beyond nearest neighbors. It depends on local conditions of topography and vegetation types. An approach based on a solid flame model is used to predict the radiative heat flux from the flame generated by the burning of each site towards its neighbors. The weighting procedure takes into account the self-degradation of the tree and the ignition processes of a combustible cell through time. The model is tested on a field presenting a range of slopes and with data collected from a real wildfire scenario. The critical behavior of the spreading process...

  2. The smoke-fireplume model : tool for eventual application to prescribed burns and wildland fires.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, D. F.; Dunn, W. E.; Lazaro, M. A.; Policastro, A. J.

    1999-08-17

    Land managers are increasingly implementing strategies that employ the use of fire in prescribed burns to sustain ecosystems and plan to sustain the rate of increase in its use over the next five years. In planning and executing expanded use of fire in wildland treatment it is important to estimate the human health and safety consequences, property damage, and the extent of visibility degradation from the resulting conflagration-pyrolysis gases, soot and smoke generated during flaming, smoldering and/or glowing fires. Traditional approaches have often employed the analysis of weather observations and forecasts to determine whether a prescribed burn will affect populations, property, or protected Class I areas. However, the complexity of the problem lends itself to advanced PC-based models that are simple to use for both calculating the emissions from the burning of wildland fuels and the downwind dispersion of smoke and other products of pyrolysis, distillation, and/or fuels combustion. These models will need to address the effects of residual smoldering combustion, including plume dynamics and optical effects. In this paper, we discuss a suite of tools that can be applied for analyzing dispersion. These tools include the dispersion models FIREPLUME and SMOKE, together with the meteorological preprocessor SEBMET.

  3. SPATIAL RESOLUTION EFFECTS OF DIGITAL TERRAIN MODELS ON LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. T. Chang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study are to identify the maximum number of correlated factors for landslide susceptibility mapping and to evaluate landslide susceptibility at Sihjhong river catchment in the southern Taiwan, integrating two techniques, namely certainty factor (CF and artificial neural network (ANN. The landslide inventory data of the Central Geological Survey (CGS, MOEA in 2004-2014 and two digital elevation model (DEM datasets including a 5-meter LiDAR DEM and a 30-meter Aster DEM were prepared. We collected thirteen possible landslide-conditioning factors. Considering the multi-collinearity and factor redundancy, we applied the CF approach to optimize these thirteen conditioning factors. We hypothesize that if the CF values of the thematic factor layers are positive, it implies that these conditioning factors have a positive relationship with the landslide occurrence. Therefore, based on this assumption and positive CF values, seven conditioning factors including slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, terrain roughness index (TRI, terrain position index (TPI, total curvature, and lithology have been selected for further analysis. The results showed that the optimized-factors model provides a better accuracy for predicting landslide susceptibility in the study area. In conclusion, the optimized-factors model is suggested for selecting relative factors of landslide occurrence.

  4. Sex differences in PTSD resilience and susceptibility: Challenges for animal models of fear learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca M. Shansky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available PTSD occurs in only a small fraction of trauma-exposed individuals, but risk is twice as high in women as in men. The neurobiological basis for this discrepancy is not known, but the identification of biological determinants of resilience and susceptibility in each sex could lead to more targeted preventions and treatments. Animal models are a useful tool for dissecting the circuits and mechanisms that underlie the brain's response to stress, but the vast majority of this work has been developed and conducted in males. The limited work that does incorporate female animals is often inconsistent across labs and does not broadly reflect human populations in terms of female susceptibility to PTSD-like behaviors. In this review, we suggest that interpreting male vs. female comparisons in these models be approached carefully, since common behavioral outcome measures may in fact reflect distinct neural processes. Moreover, since the factors that determine resilience and susceptibility are likely at least in part distinct in men and women, models that take a within-sex approach to response variability may be more useful in identifying critical mechanisms for manipulation.

  5. Finite Element Model to Reduce Fire and Blast Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    fit the existing spine model, Figure 2. The ribs were connected by the use of rigid body constraints between the rib ends and the thoracic vertebrae ... cervical , lumbar and thoracic spine that was used in this program underwent a rigorous verification and validation process. However, the other components...and Uncertainty Quantification Applied to Cervical Spine Injury Assessment”. NATO AVT Symposium on Computational Uncertainty in Military Vehicle

  6. Remote Sensing Techniques to Assess Post-Fire Effects at the Hillslope and Sub-Basin Scales via Multi-Scale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, A.; Polinova, M.; Kopel, D.; Malkinson, D.; Wittenberg, L.; Roberts, D.; Shtober-Zisu, N.

    2017-05-01

    Post-fire environmental footprint is expected at varying scales in space and in time and demands development of multi-scale monitoring approaches. In this paper, a spatially and temporally explicit multi-scale model that reveals the physical and morphological indicators affecting hillslope susceptibility at varying scales, is explained and demonstrated. The qualitative and quantitative suitability classification procedures are adapted to translate the large-scale space-borne data supplied by satellite systems (Landsat OLS8 and Sentinel 2 and 3) to local scale produced by a regional airborne survey performed by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). At the smallest spatial and temporal resolution, a daily airborne imagery collection by UAV is linked to micro-topography model, using statistical and mathematical approaches.

  7. Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fermín J. Alcasena

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain. Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306 in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km. Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.

  8. Measurements of a 1/4-scale model of a 60-kg explosives firing chamber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pastrnak, J.W.; Baker, C.F.; Simmons, L.F.

    1995-01-27

    In anticipation of increasingly stringent environmental regulations, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes to construct a 60-kg firing chamber to provide blast-effects containment for, most of its open-air, high-explosive, firing operations. Even though these operations are within current environmental limits, containment of the blast effects and hazardous debris will further drastically reduce emissions to the environment and minimize the generated hazardous waste. The major design consideration of such a chamber is its overall structural dynamic response in terms of long-term containment of all blast effects from repeated internal detonations of high explosives. Another concern is how much other portions of the facility must be hardened to ensure personnel protection in the event of an accidental detonation. To assess these concerns, a 1/4-scale replica model of the planned contained firing chamber was designed, constructed, and tested with scaled explosive charges ranging from 25 to 125% of the operational explosives limit of 60 kg. From 16 detonations of high explosives, 880 resulting strains, blast pressures, and temperatures within the model were measured. Factors of safety for dynamic yield of the firing chamber structure were calculated and compared to the design criterion of totally elastic response. The rectangular, reinforced-concrete chamber model exhibited a lightly damped vibrational response that placed the structure in alternating cycles of tension and compression. During compression, both the reinforcing steel and the concrete remained elastic. During tension, the reinforcing steel remained elastic, but the concrete elastic limit was exceeded in two areas, the center spans of the ceiling and the north wall, where elastic safety factors as low as 0.66 were obtained, thus indicating that the concrete would be expected to crack in those areas. Indeed, visual post-test inspection of those areas revealed tight cracks in the concrete.

  9. Leaky Integrate and Fire models coupled through copulas: association properties of the Interspike Intervals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sacerdote, Laura; Tamborrino, Massimiliano

    2010-01-01

    We propose a model able to describe the Interspike Intervals of two or more neurons subject to common inputs from the network. The single neuron dynamic is described through a classical Leaky Integrate and Fire model, but the model also catches the joint behavior of two neurons resorting to the u...... of copulas. Copulas are mathematical objects largely used to describe dependencies laws. Syn- chronous and delayed dependencies are considered by means of a set of examples. Results are discussed making use of crosscorrelograms....

  10. Estimation of hydrological response of a small Mediterranean watershed to fire by data analysis and a modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebedeva, L.; Semenova, O.; Folton, N.

    2014-09-01

    Data analysis and amodelling approach were used to detect the changes in hydrological regime in the Rimbaud watershed (France) after the fire in 1990. It was revealed that the increase of peak discharges was only observed during three years after the fire in the wet period of the year, at an hourly time scale. The Hydrograph model was applied for continuous runoff simulations at an hourly time step for the period 1967-2004. The parameters assessed for pre-fire conditions and used without change for the post-fire period satisfactorily fit the whole period of simulations with mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.52. The set of model parameters representing the post-fire conditions of changing environment was developed. Based on newly estimated parameters, the efficiency of simulations of selected outstanding flood peaks was improved. However, overall model representation for the post-fire period (1990-1992) has declined. It is concluded that discernible fire impact is only localized on separate floods events and that it has a nonlinear character.

  11. Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

    2010-01-01

    This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

  12. A Spatio-Temporal Model for Forest Fire Detection Using HJ-IRS Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Lin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Fire detection based on multi-temporal remote sensing data is an active research field. However, multi-temporal detection processes are usually complicated because of the spatial and temporal variability of remote sensing imagery. This paper presents a spatio-temporal model (STM based forest fire detection method that uses multiple images of the inspected scene. In STM, the strong correlation between an inspected pixel and its neighboring pixels is considered, which can mitigate adverse impacts of spatial heterogeneity on background intensity predictions. The integration of spatial contextual information and temporal information makes it a more robust model for anomaly detection. The proposed algorithm was applied to a forest fire in 2009 in the Yinanhe forest, Heilongjiang province, China, using two-month HJ-1B infrared camera sensor (IRS images. A comparison of detection results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm described in this paper are useful to represent the spatio-temporal information contained in multi-temporal remotely sensed data, and the STM detection method can be used to obtain a higher detection accuracy than the optimized contextual algorithm.

  13. Investigating and modeling of the effects of condensate storage tank fire in a refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Kamaei

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background & objective: Oil storage tanks are major industrial facilities which always pose risks of toxic substance release, fires and explosions. Fire has been recognized as the most common risk associated with such facilities, while explosion is the most important one in terms of ability to claim human lives and damage property. The current study aimed at investigating and modeling the effects of fires occurring in a gas condensate tank farm, according to which the level of possible emergencies were specified using the guidelines provided by the Center for Chemical Process Safety. Lastly, control measures were recommended. Methods: In the present study, the release and leakage of gas condensate from floating roof tanks were assessed using HAZOP method. Then, using PHAST software, the amount of radiation intensity received by the surrounding environment was determined, safe boundaries were computed, and according to the CCPS standard the emergency levels were determined. Results: modeling was performed based on the maximum capacity of tanks for both cold and hot seasons. The results revealed that safe distance for a maximum amount of irradiation density (4 KW/m2 related to a sudden release were 60 and 140 meters, respectively. Conclusion: according to the current condition of the plants and storage tanks, a plan was recommended for emergency management and practical suggestions were provided to improve the reliability and consistency.

  14. The Anomaly Detection in SMTP Traffic Based on Leaky Integrate-and-Fire Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Hao; FANG Bin-xing; YUN Xiao-chun

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigated an effective and robust mechanism for detecting simple mail transfer protocol(SMTP) traffic anomaly. The detection method cumulates the deviation of current delivering status from history behavior based on a weighted sum method called the leaky integrate-and-fire model to detect anomaly. The simplicity of the detection method is that the method need not store history profile and low computation overhead, which makes the detection method itself immunes to attacks. The performance is investigated in terms of detection probability, the false alarm ratio, and the detection delay. The results show that leaky integrate-and-fire method is quite effective at detecting constant intensity attacks and increasing intensity attacks. Compared with the non-parametric cumulative sum method, the evaluation results show that the proposed detection method has shorter detection latency and higher detection probability.

  15. Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai

    2017-04-01

    Most of the landslide cases in Taiwan were triggered by rainfall or earthquake events. The heavy rainfall in the typhoon seasons, from June to October, causes the landslide hazard more serious. Renai Towhship is of the most large landslide cases after 2009 Typhoon Morakot (from Aug. 5 to Aug. 10, 2009) in Taiwan. Around 2,744 landslides cases with the total landslide area of 21.5 km2 (landslide ratio =1.8%), including 26 large landslide cases, induced after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Towhship. The area of each large landslides case is more than 0.1 km2, and the area of the largest case is around 0.96 km2. 58% of large landslide cases locate in the area with metamorphosed sandstone. The mean slope of 26 large landslide cases ranges from 15 degree to 56 degree, and the accumulated rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot ranges from 530 mm to 937 mm. Three methods, including frequency ratio method (abbreviated as FR), weights of evidence method (abbreviated as WOE), and logistic regression method (abbreviated as LR), are used in this study to establish the landslides susceptibility in the Renai Township, Nantou County, Taiwan. Eight landslide related-factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, land use, distance to drainage, distance to fault, accumulation rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot, are used to establish the landslide susceptibility models in this study. The landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot is also used to test the model performance in this study. The mean accumulated rainfall in Renai Township during 2009 typhoon Morakot was around 735 mm with the maximum 1-hr, 3-hrs, and 6-hrs rainfall intensity of 44 mm/1-hr, 106 mm/3-hrs and 204 mm/6-hrs, respectively. The range of original susceptibility values established by three methods are 4.0 to 20.9 for FR, -33.8 to -16.1 for WOE, and -41.7 to 5.7 for LR, and the mean landslide susceptibility value are 8.0, -24.6 and 0.38, respectively. The AUC values are 0.815 for FR, 0.816 for WOE, and 0

  16. Drought, Fire and Insects in Western US Forests: Observations to Improve Regional Land System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.; Hicke, J. A.; Buotte, P.; Hudiburg, T. W.

    2015-12-01

    Drought, fire and insects are major disturbances in the western US, and conditions are expected to get warmer and drier in the future. We combine multi-scale observations and modeling with CLM4.5 to examine the effects of these disturbances on forests in the western US. We modified the Community Land Model, CLM4.5, to improve simulated drought-related mortality in forests, and prediction of insect outbreaks under future climate conditions. We examined differences in plant traits that represent species variation in sensitivity to drought, and redefined plant groupings in PFTs. Plant traits, including sapwood area: leaf area ratio and stemwood density were strongly correlated with water availability during the ecohydrologic year. Our database of co-located observations of traits for 30 tree species was used to produce parameterization of the model by species groupings according to similar traits. Burn area predicted by the new fire model in CLM4.5 compares well with recent years of GFED data, but has a positive bias compared with Landsat-based MTBS. Biomass mortality over recent decades increased, and was captured well by the model in general, but missed mortality trends of some species. Comparisons with AmeriFlux data showed that the model with dynamic tree mortality only (no species trait improvements) overestimated GPP in dry years compared with flux data at semi-arid sites, and underestimated GPP at more mesic sites that experience dry summers. Simulations with both dynamic tree mortality and species trait parameters improved estimates of GPP by 17-22%; differences between predicted and observed NEE were larger. Future projections show higher productivity from increased atmospheric CO2 and warming that somewhat offsets drought and fire effects over the next few decades. Challenges include representation of hydraulic failure in models, and availability of species trait and carbon/water process data in disturbance- and drought-impacted regions.

  17. Magnetic field diffusion modeling of a small enclosed firing system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warne, L.K.; Merewether, K.O.

    1996-01-01

    Intense magnetic fields exist in the immediate vicinity of a lightning strike (and near power lines). Conducting barriers increase the rise time (and thus decrease the rise rate) interior to the barrier, but typically do not prevent penetration of the magnetic field, since the lightning current fall time may be larger than the barrier diffusion time. Thus, substantial energy is present in the interior field, although the degradation of rise rate makes it more difficult to couple into electrical circuits. This report assesses the threat posed by the diffusive magnetic field to interior components and wire loops (where voltages are induced). Analytical and numerical bounding analyses are carried out on a pill box shaped conducting barrier to develop estimates for the worst case magnetic field threats inside the system. Worst case induced voltages and energies are estimated and compared with threshold charge voltages and energies on the output capacitor of the system. Variability of these quantities with respect to design parameters are indicated. The interior magnetic field and induced voltage estimates given in this report can be used as excitations for more detailed interior and component models.

  18. Characterizing and modeling of an 88 MW grate-fired boiler burning wheat straw: Experience and lessons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Clausen, Sønnik

    2012-01-01

    an acceptable agreement. The discrepancies are analyzed from different aspects. The lessons learned and experience gained from this and other case studies are summarized and discussed in detail, which can facilitate the modeling validation effort as well as improve grate-firing technology. Some of the addressed......Grate-firing is one of the main technologies currently used for biomass combustion for heat and power production. However, grate-firing is yet to be further developed, towards a better technology for biomass combustion, particularly towards higher efficiency, lower emissions, and better reliability...... and availability. To better understand grate-firing of biomass and to establish a reliable but relatively simple Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling methodology for industrial applications, biomass combustion in a number of different grate boilers has been measured and modeled. As one of the case studies...

  19. Modelling increased landslide susceptibility near highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenning, Alexander; Muenchow, Jannes

    2016-04-01

    Modelling increased landslide susceptibility near highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador A. Brenning (1), J. Muenchow (1) (1) Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Loebdergraben 32, 07743 Jena, Germany Mountain roads are affected by and also affect themselves landslide suceptibility. Especially in developing countries, inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading are known processes through which road construction and maintenance can enhance landslide activity within the immediate surroundings of road infrastructure. In the Andes of southern Ecuador, strong precipitation gradients as well as lithological differences provide an excellent study site in which the relationship between highways and landslide susceptibility and its regional differentiation can be studied. This study uses Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to investigate patterns of landslide susceptibility along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador. The relationship of landslides to distance from road is modeled while accounting for topographic, climatic and lithological predictors as possible confounders and modifiers, focusing on the odds ratio of landslide occurrence at 25 m versus 200 m distance from the highway. Spatial attention is given to uncertainties in estimated odds ratios of landslide occurrence using spatial block bootstrap techniques. The GAM is able to represent nonlinear additive terms as well as bivariate smooth interaction terms, providing a good tradeoff between model complexity and interpretability. The estimated odds of landslide occurrence were 18-21 times higher near the highway than at 200 m distance, based on different analyses, with lower 95% confidence limits always >13. (Semi-) parametric estimates confirmed this general range of values but suggests slightly higher odds ratios (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). Highway-related effects were observed to

  20. Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based statistical models and Remote sensing data in tropical environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahabi, Himan; Hashim, Mazlan

    2015-04-22

    This research presents the results of the GIS-based statistical models for generation of landslide susceptibility mapping using geographic information system (GIS) and remote-sensing data for Cameron Highlands area in Malaysia. Ten factors including slope, aspect, soil, lithology, NDVI, land cover, distance to drainage, precipitation, distance to fault, and distance to road were extracted from SAR data, SPOT 5 and WorldView-1 images. The relationships between the detected landslide locations and these ten related factors were identified by using GIS-based statistical models including analytical hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) models. The landslide inventory map which has a total of 92 landslide locations was created based on numerous resources such as digital aerial photographs, AIRSAR data, WorldView-1 images, and field surveys. Then, 80% of the landslide inventory was used for training the statistical models and the remaining 20% was used for validation purpose. The validation results using the Relative landslide density index (R-index) and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) demonstrated that the SMCE model (accuracy is 96%) is better in prediction than AHP (accuracy is 91%) and WLC (accuracy is 89%) models. These landslide susceptibility maps would be useful for hazard mitigation purpose and regional planning.

  1. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  2. Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, K.; Kasischke, E. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Turetsky, M. R.; Kane, E. S.

    2010-01-01

    Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface

  3. Modeling of biomass smoke injection into the lower stratosphere by a large forest fire (Part II: sensitivity studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Luderer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Chisholm forest fire that burned in Alberta, Canada, in May 2001 resulted in injection of substantial amounts of smoke into the lower stratosphere. We used the cloud-resolving plume model ATHAM (Active Tracer High resolution Atmospheric Model to investigate the importance of different contributing factors to the severe intensification of the convection induced by the Chisholm fire and the subsequent injection of biomass smoke into the lower stratosphere. The simulations show strong sensitivity of the pyro-convection to background meteorology. This explains the observed coincidence of the convective blow-up of the fire plume and the passage of a synoptic cold front. Furthermore, we performed model sensitivity studies to the rate of release of sensible heat and water vapor from the fire. The release of sensible heat by the fire plays a dominant role for the dynamic development of the pyro-cumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb and the height to which smoke is transported. The convection is very sensitive to the heat flux from the fire. The emissions of water vapor play a less significant role for the injection height but enhance the amount of smoke transported beyond the tropopause level. The aerosol burden in the plume has a strong impact on the microphysical structure of the resulting convective cloud. The dynamic evolution of the pyroCb, however, is only weakly sensitive to the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN from the fire. In contrast to previous findings by other studies of convective clouds, we found that fire CCN have a negative effect on the convection dynamics because they give rise to a delay in the freezing of cloud droplets. Even in a simulation without fire CCN, there is no precipitation formation within the updraft region of the pyroCb. Enhancement of convection by aerosols as reported from studies of other cases of convection is therefore not found in our study.

  4. Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Eva Karau

    2010-01-01

    Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology...

  5. Spatial probability models of fire in the desert grasslands of the southwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fire is an important driver of ecological processes in semiarid environments; however, the role of fire in desert grasslands of the Southwestern US is controversial and the regional fire distribution is largely unknown. We characterized the spatial distribution of fire in the desert grassland region...

  6. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  7. Investigation of the forest-fire model on a small-world network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, I; Matthai, C C

    2003-09-01

    It is shown that the forest-fire model of Bak et al. run on a square lattice network with additional long-range interactions in the spirit of a small-world network results in a scale-free system reminiscent of self-organized criticality without recourse to fine tuning. As the number of these long-range interactions is increased, the cluster size distribution exponent is found to decrease in magnitude as the small-world regime is entered, indicating a change in its universality class. It is suggested that such a model could have applicability in the study of disease spreading in human populations.

  8. Identifying fire plumes in the Arctic with tropospheric FTIR measurements and transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viatte, C.; Strong, K.; Hannigan, J.; Nussbaumer, E.; Emmons, L. K.; Conway, S.; Paton-Walsh, C.; Hartley, J.; Benmergui, J.; Lin, J.

    2015-03-01

    We investigate Arctic tropospheric composition using ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) solar absorption spectra, recorded at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL, Eureka, Nunavut, Canada, 80°05' N, 86°42' W) and at Thule (Greenland, 76°53' N, -68°74' W) from 2008 to 2012. The target species, carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen cyanide (HCN), ethane (C2H6), acetylene (C2H2), formic acid (HCOOH), and formaldehyde (H2CO) are emitted by biomass burning and can be transported from mid-latitudes to the Arctic. By detecting simultaneous enhancements of three biomass burning tracers (HCN, CO, and C2H6), ten and eight fire events are identified at Eureka and Thule, respectively, within the 5-year FTIR time series. Analyses of Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model back-trajectories coupled with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire hotspot data, Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model footprints, and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) UV aerosol index maps, are used to attribute burning source regions and travel time durations of the plumes. By taking into account the effect of aging of the smoke plumes, measured FTIR enhancement ratios were corrected to obtain emission ratios and equivalent emission factors. The means of emission factors for extratropical forest estimated with the two FTIR data sets are 0.40 ± 0.21 g kg-1 for HCN, 1.24 ± 0.71 g kg-1 for C2H6, 0.34 ± 0.21 g kg-1 for C2H2, and 2.92 ± 1.30 g kg-1 for HCOOH. The emission factor for CH3OH estimated at Eureka is 3.44 ± 1.68 g kg-1. To improve our knowledge concerning the dynamical and chemical processes associated with Arctic pollution from fires, the two sets of FTIR measurements were compared to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4). Seasonal cycles and day-to-day variabilities were compared to assess the ability of the model to reproduce emissions from fires and

  9. A model for spalling of HPC thin plates exposed to fire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulin, Thomas; Hodicky, Kamil; Schmidt, Jacob Wittrup;

    2013-01-01

    to disclose the temperature distributions during the test. A non-linear coupled model for time dependent heat and mass transfer in concrete thin plates was used for temperature and pore pressure computations. Results from modelling and tests are compared and discussed. Moisture content was found......An experimental program was carried out to investigate the behaviour of high performance concrete (HPC) thin plates in fire for use in sandwich panels. To reveal the influence of moisture two initial moisture contents for wet and dry samples were examined. In addition, two thicknesses were used...

  10. Identifying fire plumes in the Arctic with tropospheric FTIR measurements and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Viatte

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigate Arctic tropospheric composition using ground-based Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR solar absorption spectra, recorded at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL, Eureka, Nunavut, Canada, 80°5' N, 86°42' W and at Thule (Greenland, 76°53' N, −68°74' W from 2008 to 2012. The target species: carbon monoxide (CO, hydrogen cyanide (HCN, ethane (C2H6, acetylene (C2H2, formic acid (HCOOH, and formaldehyde (H2CO are emitted by biomass burning and can be transported from mid-latitudes to the Arctic. By detecting simultaneous enhancements of three biomass burning tracers (HCN, CO, and C2H6, ten and eight fire events are identified at Eureka and Thule, respectively, within the five-year FTIR timeseries. Analyses of Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT back-trajectories coupled with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS fire hot spot data, Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (STILT footprints, and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI UV aerosol index maps are used to attribute burning source regions and travel time durations of the plumes. By taking into account the effect of aging of the smoke plumes, measured FTIR enhancement ratios were corrected to obtain emission ratios and equivalent emission factors. The means of emission factors for extratropical forest estimated with the two FTIR datasets are 0.39 ± 0.15 g kg−1 for HCN, 1.23 ± 0.49 g kg−1 for C2H6, 0.34 ± 0.16 g kg−1 for C2H2, 2.13 ± 0.92 g kg−1 for HCOOH, and 3.14 ± 1.28 g kg−1 for CH3OH. To improve our knowledge concerning the dynamical and chemical processes associated with Arctic pollution from fires, the two sets of FTIR measurements were compared to the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4. Seasonal cycles and day-to-day variabilities were compared to assess the ability of the model to reproduce emissions from fires and their transport. Good

  11. A better understanding of biomass co-firing by developing an advanced non-spherical particle tracking model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    Co-firing biomass with coal or gas in the existing units has gained increasing interest in the recent past to increase the production of environmentally friendly, renewable green power. In this paper, co-firing biomass with natural gas in a 10m long wall-fired burner model is studied numerically....... In the particle force balance, the forces that could be important are all considered, which includes a drag proposed for non-spherical particles, an additional lift due to particle non-sphericity, and a ?virtual-mass? force due to relatively light biomass particles, as well as gravity and a pressure...

  12. Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation on agricultural terraces of DOURO VALLEY (PORTUGAL), using physically based mathematical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Ana; Bateira, Carlos; Laura, Soares; Fernandes, Joana; Gonçalves, José; Marques, Fernando

    2016-04-01

    The work focuses the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Douro Region agricultural terraces, supported by dry stone walls and earth embankments, using two physically based models. The applied models, SHALSTAB (Montgomery et al.,1994; Dietrich et al., 1995) and SINMAP (PACK et al., 2005), combine an infinite slope stability model with a steady state hydrological model, and both use the following geophysical parameters: cohesion, friction angle, specific weight and soil thickness. The definition of the contributing areas is different in both models. The D∞ methodology used by SINMAP model suggests a great influence of the terraces morphology, providing a much more diffuse flow on the internal flow modelling. The MD8 used in SHALSTAB promotes an important degree of flow concentration, representing an internal flow based on preferential paths of the runoff as the areas more susceptible to saturation processes. The model validation is made through the contingency matrix method (Fawcett, 2006; Raia et al., 2014) and implies the confrontation with the inventory of past landslides. The True Positive Rate shows that SHALSTAB classifies 77% of the landslides on the high susceptibility areas, while SINMAP reaches 90%. The SINMAP has a False Positive Rate (represents the percentage of the slipped area that is classified as unstable but without landslides) of 83% and the SHALSTAB has 67%. The reliability (analyzes the areas that were correctly classified on the total area) of SHALSTAB is better (33% against 18% of SINMAP). Relative to Precision (refers to the ratio of the slipped area correctly classified over the whole area classified as unstable) SHALSTAB has better results (0.00298 against 0.00283 of SINMAP). It was elaborate the index TPR/FPR and better results obtained by SHALSTAB (1.14 against 1.09 of SINMAP). SHALSTAB shows a better performance in the definition of susceptibility most prone areas to instability processes. One of the reasons for the difference of

  13. Transition between Functional Regimes in an Integrate-And-Fire Network Model of the Thalamus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barardi, Alessandro; Mazzoni, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    The thalamus is a key brain element in the processing of sensory information. During the sleep and awake states, this brain area is characterized by the presence of two distinct dynamical regimes: in the sleep state activity is dominated by spindle oscillations (7 − 15 Hz) weakly affected by external stimuli, while in the awake state the activity is primarily driven by external stimuli. Here we develop a simple and computationally efficient model of the thalamus that exhibits two dynamical regimes with different information-processing capabilities, and study the transition between them. The network model includes glutamatergic thalamocortical (TC) relay neurons and GABAergic reticular (RE) neurons described by adaptive integrate-and-fire models in which spikes are induced by either depolarization or hyperpolarization rebound. We found a range of connectivity conditions under which the thalamic network composed by these neurons displays the two aforementioned dynamical regimes. Our results show that TC-RE loops generate spindle-like oscillations and that a minimum level of clustering (i.e. local connectivity density) in the RE-RE connections is necessary for the coexistence of the two regimes. We also observe that the transition between the two regimes occurs when the external excitatory input on TC neurons (mimicking sensory stimulation) is large enough to cause a significant fraction of them to switch from hyperpolarization-rebound-driven firing to depolarization-driven firing. Overall, our model gives a novel and clear description of the role that the two types of neurons and their connectivity play in the dynamical regimes observed in the thalamus, and in the transition between them. These results pave the way for the development of efficient models of the transmission of sensory information from periphery to cortex. PMID:27598260

  14. Modelling turbulence effects in wildland fire propagation by the randomized level-set method

    CERN Document Server

    Pagnini, Gianni

    2014-01-01

    Turbulence is of paramount importance in wildland fire propagation since it randomly transports the hot air mass that can pre-heat and then ignite the area ahead the fire. This contributes to give a random character to the firefront position together with other phenomena as for example fire spotting, vegetation distribution (patchiness), gaseous combustion fluctuation, small-scale terrain elevation changes. Here only turbulence is considered. The level-set method is used to numerically describe the evolution of the fireline contour that is assumed to have a random motion because of turbulence. The progression of the combustion process is then described by a level-set contour distributed according to a weight function given by the probability density function of the air particles in turbulent motion. From the comparison between the ordinary and the randomized level-set methods, it emerges that the proposed modelling approach turns out to be suitable to simulate a moving firefront fed by the ground fuel and dri...

  15. BDNF Val66Met, stress, and positive mothering: Differential susceptibility model of adolescent trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Yu, Jing; Liu, Yujie; Zhang, Leilei; Zhang, Jianxin

    2015-08-01

    Etiological research has indicated the gene-environment interaction (G × E) on adolescent anxiety. This study aimed to examine how the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism interacted with stressful life events and positive mothering to influence youth trait anxiety. The study sample included 780 community adolescents of Chinese Han ethnicity (M = 13.6, 51.3% females). Participants' trait anxiety, exposure to stressful life events, and mother's warmth-reasoning were assessed by self-reported questionnaires. We found that BDNF Val66Met polymorphism significantly moderated the influences of stressful life events and mother's warmth-reasoning on adolescent anxiety. The influences were significantly greater in adolescents carrying one or two Val allele than those with Met/Met genotype. Moreover, the G × E interactions were more consistent with the differential susceptibility than the diathesis-stress model. Adolescents carrying Val allele who were more susceptible to adversity were also more likely to benefit from supportive experiences. These findings provide novel evidence for the role of BDNF Val66Met as a genetic susceptibility modulating the influences of stressful life events and mother's warmth-reasoning on adolescent anxiety. We speculate that BDNF Val66Met may moderate anxious youths' responses to mindfulness-based stress reduction program and family-based treatment targeting the enhancement of positive parenting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The Effects of Dynamical Synapses on Firing Rate Activity: A Spiking Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Radwa; Moftah, Marie Z; Moustafa, Ahmed A

    2017-09-18

    Accumulating evidence relates the fine-tuning of synaptic maturation and regulation of neural network activity to several key factors, including GABAA signaling and a lateral spread length between neighboring neurons (i.e. local connectivity). Furthermore, a number of studies consider Short-Term synaptic Plasticity (STP) as an essential element in the instant modification of synaptic efficacy in the neuronal network and in modulating responses to sustained ranges of external Poisson Input Frequency (IF). Nevertheless, evaluating the firing activity in response to the dynamical interaction between STP (triggered by ranges of IF), and these key parameters in vitro remains elusive. Therefore, we designed a Spiking Neural Network (SNN) model in which we incorporated the following parameters: local density of arbor essences and a lateral spread length between neighboring neurons. We also created several network scenarios based on these key parameters. Then, we implemented two classes of STP: (1) Short-Term synaptic Depression (STD), and (2) Short-Term synaptic Facilitation (STF). Each class has two differential forms based on the parametric value of its synaptic time constant (either for depressing or facilitating synapses). Lastly, we compared the neural firing responses before and after the treatment with STP. We found that dynamical synapses(STP) have a critical differential role on evaluating, and modulating the firing rate activity in each network scenario. Moreover, we investigated the impact of changing the balance between excitation (E) / inhibition (I) on stabilizing this firing activity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  17. Boreal forest fires in 1997 and 1998: a seasonal comparison using transport model simulations and measurement data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Spichtinger

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest fire emissions have a strong impact on the concentrations of trace gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. In order to quantify the influence of boreal forest fire emissions on the atmospheric composition, the fire seasons of 1997 and 1998 are compared in this paper. Fire activity in 1998 was very strong, especially over Canada and Eastern Siberia, whereas it was much weaker in 1997. According to burned area estimates the burning in 1998 was more than six times as intense as in 1997. Based on hot spot locations derived from ATSR (Along Track Scanning Radiometer data and official burned area data, fire emissions were estimated and their transport was simulated with a Lagrangian tracer transport model. Siberian and Canadian forest fire tracers were distinguished to investigate the transport of both separately. The fire emissions were transported even over intercontinental distances. Due to the El Niño induced meteorological situation, transport from Siberia to Canada was enhanced in 1998. Siberian fire emissions were transported towards Canada and contributed concentrations more than twice as high as those due to Canada's own CO emissions by fires. In 1998 both tracers arrive at higher latitudes over Europe, which is due to a higher North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index in 1998. The simulated emission plumes are compared to CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory CO2 and CO data, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS aerosol index (AI data and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME tropospheric NO2 and HCHO columns. All the data show clearly enhanced signals during the burning season of 1998 compared to 1997. The results of the model simulation are in good agreement with ground-based as well as satellite-based measurements.

  18. Is the full susceptibility of the square-lattice Ising model a differentially algebraic function?

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    Guttmann, A. J.; Jensen, I.; Maillard, J.-M.; Pantone, J.

    2016-12-01

    We study the class of non-holonomic power series with integer coefficients that reduce, modulo primes, or powers of primes, to algebraic functions. In particular we try to determine whether the susceptibility of the square-lattice Ising model belongs to this class, and more broadly whether the susceptibility is a solution of a differentially algebraic equation. Initial results on Tutte's nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) and other simple quadratic nonlinear ODEs suggest that a large set of differentially algebraic power series solutions with integer coefficients might reduce to algebraic functions modulo primes, or powers of primes. Since diagonals of rational functions are well-known to reduce, modulo primes, or powers of primes, to algebraic functions, a large subset of differentially algebraic power series with integer coefficients may be viewed as a natural ‘nonlinear’ generalisation of diagonals of rational functions. Here we give several examples of series with integer coefficients and non-zero radius of convergence that reduce to algebraic functions modulo (almost) every prime (or power of a prime). These examples satisfy differentially algebraic equations with the encoding polynomial occasionally possessing quite high degree (and thus difficult to identify even with long series). These examples shed important light on the very nature of such differentially algebraic series. Additionally, we have extended both the high- and low-temperature Ising square-lattice susceptibility series to 5043 coefficients. We find that even this long series is insufficient to determine whether it reduces to algebraic functions modulo 3, 5, etc. This negative result is in contrast to the comparatively easy confirmation that the corresponding series reduce to algebraic functions modulo powers of 2. Finally we show that even with 5043 terms we are unable to identify an underlying differentially algebraic equation for the susceptibility, ruling out a number of

  19. A Drosophila model for toxicogenomics: Genetic variation in susceptibility to heavy metal exposure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The genetic factors that give rise to variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins remain largely unexplored. Studies on genetic variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins are challenging in human populations, due to the variety of clinical symptoms and difficulty in determining which symptoms causally result from toxic exposure; uncontrolled environments, often with exposure to multiple toxicants; and difficulty in relating phenotypic effect size to toxic dose, especially when symptoms become manifest with a substantial time lag. Drosophila melanogaster is a powerful model that enables genome-wide studies for the identification of allelic variants that contribute to variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins, since the genetic background, environmental rearing conditions and toxic exposure can be precisely controlled. Here, we used extreme QTL mapping in an outbred population derived from the D. melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel to identify alleles associated with resistance to lead and/or cadmium, two ubiquitous environmental toxins that present serious health risks. We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs associated with variation in resistance to both heavy metals as well as SNPs associated with resistance specific to each of them. The effects of these SNPs were largely sex-specific. We applied mutational and RNAi analyses to 33 candidate genes and functionally validated 28 of them. We constructed networks of candidate genes as blueprints for orthologous networks of human genes. The latter not only provided functional contexts for known human targets of heavy metal toxicity, but also implicated novel candidate susceptibility genes. These studies validate Drosophila as a translational toxicogenomics gene discovery system.

  20. Bayesian multinomial probit modeling of daily windows of susceptibility for maternal PM2.5 exposure and congenital heart defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Past epidemiologic studies suggest maternal ambient air pollution exposure during critical periods of the pregnancy is associated with fetal development. We introduce a multinomial probit model that allows for the joint identification of susceptible daily periods during the pregn...

  1. Global Lithospheric Apparent Susceptibility Distribution Converted from Geomagnetic Models by CHAMP and Swarm Satellite Magnetic Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinsong; Chen, Chao; Xiong, Xiong; Li, Yongdong; Liang, Qing

    2016-04-01

    Recently, because of continually accumulated magnetic measurements by CHAMP satellite and Swarm constellation of three satellites and well developed methodologies and techniques of data processing and geomagnetic field modeling etc., global lithospheric magnetic anomaly field models become more and more reliable. This makes the quantitative interpretation of lithospheric magnetic anomaly field possible for having an insight into large-scale magnetic structures in the crust and uppermost mantle. Many different approaches have been utilized to understand the magnetized sources, such as forward, inversion, statistics, correlation analysis, Euler deconvolution, signal transformations etc. Among all quantitative interpretation methods, the directly converting a magnetic anomaly map into a magnetic susceptibility anomaly map proposed by Arkani-Hamed & Strangway (1985) is, we think, the most fast quantitative interpretation tool for global studies. We just call this method AS85 hereinafter for short. Although Gubbins et al. (2011) provided a formula to directly calculate the apparent magnetic vector distribution, the AS85 method introduced constraints of magnetized direction and thus corresponding results are expected to be more robust especially in world-wide continents. Therefore, in this study, we first improved the AS85 method further considering non-axial dipolar inducing field using formulae by Nolte & Siebert (1987), initial model or priori information for starting coefficients in the apparent susceptibility conversion, hidden longest-wavelength components of lithospheric magnetic field and field contaminations from global oceanic remanent magnetization. Then, we used the vertically integrated susceptibility model by Hemant & Maus (2005) and vertically integrated remanent magnetization model by Masterton et al. (2013) to test the validity of our improved method. Subsequently, we applied the conversion method to geomagnetic field models by CHAMP and Swarm satellite