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Sample records for modeling fire susceptibility

  1. Modeling fire susceptibility to delineate wildland-urban interface for municipal-scale fire risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

    2013-12-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.

  2. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  3. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  4. Mass Fire Model Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-31

    done by several investigators, the theoretical work of Nielsen (Reference 12) and Nielsen and Tao (Refer- ence 13) specifically models the global...which are approximately equal. This procedure permits computation of the fire..induced wind by a superpositlon of effects from each usub -fire." Outsid...Storm Analysis, ITT Research Institute, Janu- ary 1970. .324 13. Nielsen , H.J. and L.N. Tao, "The Fire Plume Above a Large Free- Burning Fire,’ Tenth S

  5. Degraded forests are more susceptible to forest fires: Some possible ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is a strong belief that degraded forests are more susceptible to forest fires than non-degraded ones, but this is more intuitive than scientifically proven. The present study was conducted to investigate how fuel loading and moisture content of combustible materials; two variables that influence ignition and fire impact ...

  6. Fire Models and Design Fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Annemarie

    The aim of this project is to perform an experimental study on the influence of the thermal feedback on the burning behavior of well ventilated pre-flashover fires. For the purpose an experimental method has been developed. Here the same identical objects are tested under free burn conditions...... documented a simple relation that can be used for estimating the impact of thermal feedback for pre-flashover design fires. A rapid increase of the heat release rate commenced after the incipient phase. This is seen as thermal runaway caused by the energy gain in the smoke layer exceeding the energy that can...... and in two different rooms, which only are varied by linings of significantly different thermal inertia. As all linings were non-combustible the heat release rate could be found without the influence of thermal feedback and for two different levels of thermal feedback. The ISO 9705 Room Corner Test facility...

  7. FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otto Dvořák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

  8. Historical Susceptibility of Forest Fires in the Carajas Region, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conceicao, M. C.; Rodrigues, R. A.; Cordeiro, R. C.; Barbosa, M. R.; Santos, D. D.; Turcq, B. J.; Seoane, J. S.; Sifeddine, A.

    2008-12-01

    The Carajas Region in the Para state, nowadays keeps a vast area of forests protected by Units of Conservation and Indigenous Land. Despite the efforts and investments done by private companies and government agencies to prevent forest fires, they are still registered, being one of the major factors of degradation of forests, flora and fauna. Thus there is a need to improve the understanding of these burning processes at present, and its evolution in different time scales, which allows comparison between patterns of fire occurrences related to climate and human reasons. This study aims to assess the evolution of the climate of Carajas region along the Quaternary, with emphasis on natural occurrence of fires related to historical events palaeoclimatic. For this a sediment core of a lake with 450 cm of depth was collected. Chronology is being determined by the radiocarbon method. Ours specific objectives are quantify and qualify the source of sedimentary material, determine concentrations of biogenic elements and minerals, through granulometric and mineralogical analyses and of quality and quantity of organic matter through the establishment of elementary (the C/N) and isotopic ratios (ä13C and ä15N). The dimensions of processes linked to the biomass burning will be determined by quantifying of charcoal fragments resulting from fires through microscopic analysis. This seeks to reconstruct the environmental scene and paleoclimatics conditions related to events of biomass burning, demonstrating the susceptibility of this historic region to the occurrence of fires according to the different climate stages identified.

  9. Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glasa, J; Valasek, L; Weisenpacher, P; Halada, L

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

  10. Modeling Urban Fire Growth,

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuclear explosion damage, *Explosion effects, *Fires, *Flame propagation, Growth (General), Area coverage, Ignition, Combustion, Casualties...Computerized simulation, Predictions, Countermeasures, Fire suppression, Damage assessment, Urban areas, Vulnerability, Data acquisition, Methodology, Symposia

  11. Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepstad, Daniel C.; Brown, I. Foster; Setzer, Alberto

    2000-01-01

    Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

  12. Model of large pool fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fay, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables

  13. FIRE BLIGHT SUSCEPTIBILITY OF SOME PEAR VARIETIES (ERWINIA AMYLOVORA, BURILL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zsolt Jakab- Ilyefalv

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At Bistriţa Fruit Research and Development Station, in a pear collection, planted with 44 varieties, there has been studied the susceptibility to fire blight (Erwinia amylovora,Burill. During the vegetation period, phytosanitary treatments to control the disease have been applied using copper based products (copper sulfate, Champion, Funguran, Kocide. Erwinia amylovora infections have been influenced by the rainfall registered in April (70.9 mm and May (104.7 mm and the temperature fluctuations in April-May. The field observations on Erwinia amylvora attack demonstrate that the pear varieties have a different susceptibility to this dangerous bacterium. Evaluation of attack level in the pear collection was done using an evaluation scale with 9 scores using a reference resistance scale for : ‘Highly resistant’ , ‘Moderately resistant’, ‘Susceptible’, ‘Very susceptible’ cultivars . The most sensitive pear varieties in the collection were: ‘De Noiembrie’, ‘Abatele Fetel’, ’Daciana’, ’Triumf’, ’Williams Boway’, ’Margareta Marillat’, ’Beauty Tomme’, ‘Williams rosu’, ’Aromata de Bistrita’, ’Jeanne d`Arc’, ’Aramiu de Somes’, ’Belle des Arbres’, ’Zorka’ representing 13.64% of the total pear varieties. In several cultivars there have been observed increased symptoms, a very high susceptibility of infections leading to complete scorching of trees: Jeanne d`Arc’, Williams rosu’, ‘Triumf’, ‘Aromata de Bistrita’, ‘Zorka’. Strong attack symtoms were observed at the pear cultivars ‘Cure’, ‘Euras, ’Ciuda’ ‘Highland’, ‘Precoce Morettini’, ’Monica’, ’Cadillac’, ’Juliana’, ’Somesan’, ’Beurré Hardenpont’ these cultivars being susceptible to Erwinia amylovora , representing 40.91 % of total genotypes . Cultivars ‘Untoasa Geoagiu’, ‘Beurre Hardy’, ‘Trivale’ manifested a certain tolerance to Erwinia amylovora , no attack symptoms being

  14. Fire models for assessment of nuclear power plant fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Nowlen, S.P.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in available fire models for the assessment of nuclear power plants fires. The advantages and disadvantages of three basic types of fire models (zone, field, and control volume) and Sandia's experience with these models will be discussed. It is shown that the type of fire model selected to solve a particular problem should be based on the information that is required. Areas of concern which relate to all nuclear power plant fire models are identified. 17 refs., 6 figs

  15. Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2008-01-01

    A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...

  16. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  17. Economic susceptibility of fire-prone landscapes in natural protected areas of the southern Andean Range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Juan Ramón; Moreno, Roberto; Castillo, Miguel; Rodríguez Y Silva, Francisco

    2018-04-01

    Large fires are the most important disturbances at landscape-level due to their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study aimed to develop an approach for the assessment of the socio-economic landscape susceptibility to fire. Our methodology focuses on the integration of economic components of landscape management based on contingent valuation method (CVM) and net-value change (NVC). This former component has been estimated using depreciation rates or changes on the number of arrivals to different natural protected areas after a large fire occurrence. Landscape susceptibility concept has been motivated by the need to assist fire prevention programs and environmental management. There was a remarkable variation in annual economic value attributed to each protected area based on the CVM scenario, ranging from 40,189-46,887$/year ("Tolhuaca National Park") to 241,000-341,953$/year ("Conguillio National Park"). We added landscape susceptibility using depreciation rates or tourist arrival decrease which varied from 2.04% (low fire intensity in "Tolhuaca National Park") to 76.67% (high fire intensity in "Conguillio National Park"). The integration of this approach and future studies about vegetation resilience should seek management strategies to increase economic efficiency in the fire prevention activities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Keith Gilless; Jeremy S. Fried

    1998-01-01

    A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making...

  19. Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick W. Bratten

    1982-01-01

    A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

  20. Standard fire behavior fuel models: a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Robert E. Burgan

    2005-01-01

    This report describes a new set of standard fire behavior fuel models for use with Rothermel's surface fire spread model and the relationship of the new set to the original set of 13 fire behavior fuel models. To assist with transition to using the new fuel models, a fuel model selection guide, fuel model crosswalk, and set of fuel model photos are provided.

  1. Susceptible-infected-recovered and susceptible-exposed-infected models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tome, Tania; De Oliveira, Mario J, E-mail: oliveira@if.usp.br [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Caixa Postal 66318, 05315-970 Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2011-03-04

    Two stochastic epidemic lattice models, the susceptible-infected-recovered and the susceptible-exposed-infected models, are studied on a Cayley tree of coordination number k. The spreading of the disease in the former is found to occur when the infection probability b is larger than b{sub c} = k/2(k - 1). In the latter, which is equivalent to a dynamic site percolation model, the spreading occurs when the infection probability p is greater than p{sub c} = 1/(k - 1). We set up and solve the time evolution equations for both models and determine the final and time-dependent properties, including the epidemic curve. We show that the two models are closely related by revealing that their relevant properties are exactly mapped into each other when p = b/[k - (k - 1)b]. These include the cluster size distribution and the density of individuals of each type, quantities that have been determined in closed forms.

  2. Performance of fire behavior fuel models developed for the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Ziel; W. Matt Jolly

    2009-01-01

    In 2005, 40 new fire behavior fuel models were published for use with the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model. These new models are intended to augment the original 13 developed in 1972 and 1976. As a compiled set of quantitative fuel descriptions that serve as input to the Rothermel model, the selected fire behavior fuel model has always been critical to the resulting...

  3. Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

    2005-03-01

    Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model

  4. Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

    2005-03-15

    Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model.

  5. Tropical Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping at the Cat Ba National Park Area, Hai Phong City, Vietnam, Using GIS-Based Kernel Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieu Tien Bui

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Cat Ba National Park area (Vietnam with its tropical forest is recognized as being part of the world biodiversity conservation by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO and is a well-known destination for tourists, with around 500,000 travelers per year. This area has been the site for many research projects; however, no project has been carried out for forest fire susceptibility assessment. Thus, protection of the forest including fire prevention is one of the main concerns of the local authorities. This work aims to produce a tropical forest fire susceptibility map for the Cat Ba National Park area, which may be helpful for the local authorities in forest fire protection management. To obtain this purpose, first, historical forest fires and related factors were collected from various sources to construct a GIS database. Then, a forest fire susceptibility model was developed using Kernel logistic regression. The quality of the model was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC, and five statistical evaluation measures. The usability of the resulting model is further compared with a benchmark model, the support vector machine (SVM. The results show that the Kernel logistic regression model has a high level of performance in both the training and validation dataset, with a prediction capability of 92.2%. Since the Kernel logistic regression model outperforms the benchmark model, we conclude that the proposed model is a promising alternative tool that should also be considered for forest fire susceptibility mapping in other areas. The results of this study are useful for the local authorities in forest planning and management.

  6. Fidelity susceptibility in the quantum Rabi model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Bo-Bo; Lv, Xiao-Chen

    2018-01-01

    Quantum criticality usually occurs in many-body systems. Recently it was shown that the quantum Rabi model, which describes a two-level atom coupled to a single model cavity field, presents quantum phase transitions from a normal phase to a superradiate phase when the ratio between the frequency of the two-level atom and the frequency of the cavity field extends to infinity. In this work, we study quantum phase transitions in the quantum Rabi model from the fidelity susceptibility perspective. We found that the fidelity susceptibility and the generalized adiabatic susceptibility present universal finite-size scaling behaviors near the quantum critical point of the Rabi model if the ratio between frequency of the two-level atom and frequency of the cavity field is finite. From the finite-size scaling analysis of the fidelity susceptibility, we found that the adiabatic dimension of the fidelity susceptibility and the generalized adiabatic susceptibility of fourth order in the Rabi model are 4 /3 and 2, respectively. Meanwhile, the correlation length critical exponent and the dynamical critical exponent in the quantum critical point of the Rabi model are found to be 3 /2 and 1 /3 , respectively. Since the fidelity susceptibility and the generalized adiabatic susceptibility are the moments of the quantum noise spectrum which are directly measurable by experiments in linear response regime, the scaling behavior of the fidelity susceptibility in the Rabi model could be tested experimentally. The simple structure of the quantum Rabi model paves the way for experimentally observing the universal scaling behavior of the fidelity susceptibility at a quantum phase transition.

  7. Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Kulakowski

    Full Text Available The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand

  8. Deforestation, fire susceptibility, and potential tree responses to fire in the eastern Amazon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uhl, C. (Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park (USA) Agropecuria do Tropico Umnido, Para (Brazil)); Kauffman, J.B. (Oregon State Univ., Corvallis (USA))

    1990-04-01

    In the state of Para, Brazil, in the eastern Amazon, the authors studied the potential for sustained fire events within four dominant vegetation cover types (undisturbed rain forest, selectively logged forest, second-growth forest, and open pasture), by measuring fuel availability, microclimate, and rates of fuel moisture loss. They also estimated the potential tree mortality that might result from a wide-scale Amazon forest fire by measuring the thermal properties of bark for all trees in a 5-ha stand of mature forest, followed by measurements of heat flux through bark during simulated fires. In pastures the average midday temperature was almost 10{degree}C greater and the average midday relative humidity was 30% lower than in primary forest. The most five-prone ecosystem was the open pasture followed by selectively logged forest, second growth forest, and undisturbed rain forest in which sustained combustion was not possible even after prolonged rainless periods. Even though the autogenic factors in primary forest of the eastern Amazon create a microclimate that virtually eliminates the probability of fire, they are currently a common event in disturbed areas of Amazonia. As many as 8 {times} 10{sup 6} ha burned in the Amazon Basin of Brazil in 1987 alone. In terms of current land-use patterns, altered microclimates, and fuel mass, there are also striking similarities between the eastern Amazon and East Kalimantan, Indonesia (the site of recent rain forest wildfires that burned 3.5 {times} 10{sup 6} ha).

  9. Fire modeling in a nonventilated corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lulea, Marius Dorin; Iordache, Vlad; Năstase, Ilinca

    2018-02-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the effect of fire in a nonventilated corridor. A real-scale model of a corridor has been modeled in Fire Dynamics Simulator(F.D.S.) in order to determine the evolution of indoor temperatures, the visibility and the oxygen quantities during a fire. The start time of a sprinkler has also been determined. The use of sprinklers in buildings has become a necessity and a requirement imposed by technical norms. The provision of this type of installation has become a common feature in buildings with a high fire risk, with two main effects: fire extinction and protection of structural and partition elements from high temperatures[15]. The ultimate goal is to ensure optimal conditions for saving the building users, intervention teams and maintaining the stability of the building. Low temperatures and good visibility on the escape routes during a fire are the basic conditions to ensure the optimal evacuation of users.

  10. Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T; Bebi, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand-replacing fires were

  11. Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

    2011-01-01

    Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

  12. Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current

  13. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Henri Balbi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.

  14. Modelling the probability of building fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Barták

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

  15. Parametric analysis of fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Yang, J. Y.; Kim, J. H.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the pump room fire of the nuclear power plant using CFAST fire modeling code developed by NIST. It is determined by the constrained or unconstrained fire, Lower Oxygen Limit (LOL), Radiative Fraction (RF), and the times to open doors, which are the input parameters of CAFST. According to the results, pump room fire is ventilation-controlled fire, so it is adequate that the value of LOL is 10% which is also the default value. It is appeared that the RF does not change the temperature of the upper gas layer. But the level of opening of the penetrating area and the times to opening it have an effect on the temperature of the upper layer, so it is determined that the results of it should be carefully analyzed

  16. The differential susceptibility to media effects model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this theoretical article, we introduce the Differential Susceptibility to Media Effects Model (DSMM), a new, integrative model to improve our understanding of media effects. The DSMM organizes, integrates, and extends the insights developed in earlier microlevel media-effects theories. It

  17. Dynamic Properties of a Forest Fire Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Min

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The reaction-diffusion equations have been widely used in physics, chemistry, and other areas. Forest fire can also be described by such equations. We here propose a fighting forest fire model. By using the normal form approach theory and center manifold theory, we analyze the stability of the trivial solution and Hopf bifurcation of this model. Finally, we give the numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.

  18. Simulating wall and corner fire tests on wood products with the OSU room fire model

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. C. Tran

    1994-01-01

    This work demonstrates the complexity of modeling wall and corner fires in a compartment. The model chosen for this purpose is the Ohio State University (OSU) room fire model. This model was designed to simulate fire growth on walls in a compartment and therefore lends itself to direct comparison with standard room test results. The model input were bench-scale data...

  19. Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolette, V.F. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, K.T. [Notre Dame Univ., IN (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories` participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia`s participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants.

  20. A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric L. Smith

    1987-01-01

    Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

  1. Sodium pool fire model for CONACS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yung, S.C.

    1982-01-01

    The modeling of sodium pool fires constitutes an important ingredient in conducting LMFBR accident analysis. Such modeling capability has recently come under scrutiny at Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) within the context of developing CONACS, the Containment Analysis Code System. One of the efforts in the CONACS program is to model various combustion processes anticipated to occur during postulated accident paths. This effort includes the selection or modification of an existing model and development of a new model if it clearly contributes to the program purpose. As part of this effort, a new sodium pool fire model has been developed that is directed at removing some of the deficiencies in the existing models, such as SOFIRE-II and FEUNA

  2. Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE): Modeling gaps and data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Adam Kochanski; Kirk Baker; Ruddy Mell; Rodman Linn; Ronan Paugam; Jan Mandel; Aime Fournier; Mary Ann Jenkins; Scott Goodrick; Gary Achtemeier; Andrew Hudak; Matthew Dickson; Brian Potter; Craig Clements; Shawn Urbanski; Roger Ottmar; Narasimhan Larkin; Timothy Brown; Nancy French; Susan Prichard; Adam Watts; Derek McNamara

    2017-01-01

    Fire and smoke models are numerical tools for simulating fire behavior, smoke dynamics, and air quality impacts of wildland fires. Fire models are developed based on the fundamental chemistry and physics of combustion and fire spread or statistical analysis of experimental data (Sullivan 2009). They provide information on fire spread and fuel consumption for safe and...

  3. Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

  4. Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the wildland fire emissions information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy H.F. French; Donald McKenzie; Tyler Erickson; Benjamin Koziol; Michael Billmire; K. Endsley; Naomi K.Y. Scheinerman; Liza Jenkins; Mary E. Miller; Roger Ottmar; Susan Prichard

    2014-01-01

    As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent...

  5. Sensitivity of fire behavior simulations to fuel model variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucy A. Salazar

    1985-01-01

    Stylized fuel models, or numerical descriptions of fuel arrays, are used as inputs to fire behavior simulation models. These fuel models are often chosen on the basis of generalized fuel descriptions, which are related to field observations. Site-specific observations of fuels or fire behavior in the field are not readily available or necessary for most fire management...

  6. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  7. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  8. Fire Response of Loaded Composite Structures - Experiments and Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Burdette, Jason A.

    2001-01-01

    In this work, the thermo-mechanical response and failure of loaded, fire-exposed composite structures was studied. Unique experimental equipment and procedures were developed and experiments were performed to assess the effects of mechanical loading and fire exposure on the service life of composite beams. A series of analytical models was assembled to describe the fire growth and structural response processes for the system used in the experiments. This series of models consists of a fire...

  9. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  11. Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses

  12. Modelling fire frequency in a Cerrado savanna protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C; Oliveira, Sofia L J; Pereira, José M C; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world's most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997-2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects.

  13. Modelling fire frequency in a Cerrado savanna protected area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo C Pereira Júnior

    Full Text Available Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world's most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997-2008 for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects.

  14. Modelling Fire Frequency in a Cerrado Savanna Protected Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C.; Oliveira, Sofia L. J.; Pereira, José M. C.; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world’s most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997–2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects. PMID:25054540

  15. Modeling the effects of vegetation heterogeneity on wildland fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Sieg, C.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation structure and densities are known to drive fire-spread rate and burn severity. Many fire-spread models incorporate an average, homogenous fuel density in the model domain to drive fire behavior. However, vegetation communities are rarely homogenous and instead present significant heterogeneous structure and fuel densities in the fires path. This results in observed patches of varied burn severities and mosaics of disturbed conditions that affect ecological recovery and hydrologic response. Consequently, to understand the interactions of fire and ecosystem functions, representations of spatially heterogeneous conditions need to be incorporated into fire models. Mechanistic models of fire disturbance offer insight into how fuel load characterization and distribution result in varied fire behavior. Here we use a physically-based 3D combustion model—FIRETEC—that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species to compare fire behavior on homogenous representations to a heterogeneous vegetation distribution. Results demonstrate the impact vegetation heterogeneity has on the spread rate, intensity, and extent of simulated wildfires thus providing valuable insight in predicted wildland fire evolution and enhanced ability to estimate wildland fire inputs into regional and global climate models.

  16. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  17. Evaluation of a post-fire tree mortality model for western US conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon M. Hood; Charles W McHugh; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Sheri L. Smith

    2007-01-01

    Accurately predicting fire-caused mortality is essential to developing prescribed fire burn plans and post-fire salvage marking guidelines. The mortality model included in the commonly used USA fire behaviour and effects models, the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS), has not...

  18. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  19. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  20. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  1. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  2. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  3. The susceptibilities in the spin-S Ising model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ainane, A.; Saber, M.

    1995-08-01

    The susceptibilities of the spin-S Ising model are evaluated using the effective field theory introduced by Tucker et al. for studying general spin-S Ising model. The susceptibilities are studied for all spin values from S = 1/2 to S = 5/2. (author). 12 refs, 4 figs

  4. FireStem2D — A two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efthalia K. Chatziefstratiou; Gil Bohrer; Anthony S. Bova; Ravishankar Subramanian; Renato P.M. Frasson; Amy Scherzer; Bret W. Butler; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2013-01-01

    FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by...

  5. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

    2012-01-01

    Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

  6. Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.

    1996-03-01

    Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem 'Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility'. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.)

  7. Prioritization of reactor control components susceptible to fire damage as a consequence of aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowry, W.; Vigil, R.; Nowlen, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Test Program is to identify and assess issues of plant aging that could lead to an increase in nuclear power plant risk because of fires. Historical component data and prior analyses are used to prioritize a list of components with respect to aging and fire vulnerability and the consequences of their failure on plant safety systems. The component list emphasizes safety system control components, but excludes cables, large equipment, and devices encompassed in the Equipment Qualification (EQ) program. The test program selected components identified in a utility survey and developed test and fire conditions necessary to maximize the effectiveness of the test program. Fire damage considerations were limited to purely thermal effects

  8. Prioritization of reactor control components susceptible to fire damage as a consequence of aging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, W.; Vigil, R. [Science and Engineering Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nowlen, S. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-01-01

    The Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Test Program is to identify and assess issues of plant aging that could lead to an increase in nuclear power plant risk because of fires. Historical component data and prior analyses are used to prioritize a list of components with respect to aging and fire vulnerability and the consequences of their failure on plant safety systems. The component list emphasizes safety system control components, but excludes cables, large equipment, and devices encompassed in the Equipment Qualification (EQ) program. The test program selected components identified in a utility survey and developed test and fire conditions necessary to maximize the effectiveness of the test program. Fire damage considerations were limited to purely thermal effects.

  9. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  10. Numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Kuldeep; Li, Chiping; Kailasanath, K.; Ndubizu, Chuka; Ananth, Ramagopal; Tatem, P. A.

    1999-12-01

    The focus of this paper is on numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires. A mathematical model is first developed to describe the evaporation and burning of a two-dimensional or axisymmetric pool containing pure liquid methanol. Then, the complete set of unsteady, compressible Navier-Stokes equations for reactive flows are solved in the gas phase to describe the convection of the fuel gases away from the pool surface, diffusion of the gases into the surrounding air and the oxidation of the fuel into product species. Heat transfer into the liquid pool and the metal container through conduction, convection and radiation are modelled by solving a modified form of the energy equation. Clausius-Clapeyron relationships are invoked to model the evaporation rate of a two-dimensional pool of pure liquid methanol. The governing equations along with appropriate boundary and interface conditions are solved using the flux-corrected transport algorithm. Numerical results exhibit a flame structure that compares well with experimental observations. Temperature profiles and burning rates were found to compare favourably with experimental data from single- and three-compartment laboratory burners. The model predicts a puffing frequency of approximately 12 Hz for a 1 cm diameter methanol pool in the absence of any air co-flow. It is also observed that increasing the air co-flow velocity helps in stabilizing the diffusion flame, by pushing the vortical structures away from the flame region.

  11. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  12. Modeling the spatial distribution of forest crown biomass and effects on fire behavior with FUEL3D and WFDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William Mell; Peter McCauley

    2010-01-01

    Crown fire poses challenges to fire managers and can endanger fire fighters. Understanding of how fire interacts with tree crowns is essential to informed decisions about crown fire. Current operational crown fire predictions in the United States assume homogeneous crown fuels. While a new class of research fire models, which model fire behavior with computational...

  13. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

  14. Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

    2016-01-01

    Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from

  15. FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.

    1997-06-01

    This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF 6 . The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF 6 cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF 6 in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF 6 reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed

  16. Parameterization of Fire Injection Height in Large Scale Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paugam, R.; Wooster, M.; Atherton, J.; Val Martin, M.; Freitas, S.; Kaiser, J. W.; Schultz, M. G.

    2012-12-01

    The parameterization of fire injection height in global chemistry transport model is currently a subject of debate in the atmospheric community. The approach usually proposed in the literature is based on relationships linking injection height and remote sensing products like the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) which can measure active fire properties. In this work we present an approach based on the Plume Rise Model (PRM) developed by Freitas et al (2007, 2010). This plume model is already used in different host models (e.g. WRF, BRAMS). In its original version, the fire is modeled by: a convective heat flux (CHF; pre-defined by the land cover and evaluated as a fixed part of the total heat released) and a plume radius (derived from the GOES Wildfire-ABBA product) which defines the fire extension where the CHF is homogeneously distributed. Here in our approach the Freitas model is modified, in particular we added (i) an equation for mass conservation, (ii) a scheme to parameterize horizontal entrainment/detrainment, and (iii) a new initialization module which estimates the sensible heat released by the fire on the basis of measured FRP rather than fuel cover type. FRP and Active Fire (AF) area necessary for the initialization of the model are directly derived from a modified version of the Dozier algorithm applied to the MOD14 product. An optimization (using the simulating annealing method) of this new version of the PRM is then proposed based on fire plume characteristics derived from the official MISR plume height project and atmospheric profiles extracted from the ECMWF analysis. The data set covers the main fire region (Africa, Siberia, Indonesia, and North and South America) and is set up to (i) retain fires where plume height and FRP can be easily linked (i.e. avoid large fire cluster where individual plume might interact), (ii) keep fire which show decrease of FRP and AF area after MISR overpass (i.e. to minimize effect of the time period needed for the plume to

  17. Modelling Fire Frequency in a Cerrado Savanna Protected Area

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C.; Oliveira, Sofia L. J.; Pereira, José M. C.; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world's most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997-2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area...

  18. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  19. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  20. Experimental and numerical modeling of shrub crown fire initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watcharapong Tachajapong; Jesse Lozano; Shakar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; David Weise

    2009-01-01

    The transition of fire from dry surface fuels to wet shrub crown fuels was studied using laboratory experiments and a simple physical model to gain a better understanding of the transition process. In the experiments, we investigated the effects of varying vertical distances between surface and crown fuels (crown base height), and of the wind speed on crown fire...

  1. Methods for landslide susceptibility modelling in Lower Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Rainer; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas; Leopold, Philip; Heiss, Gerhard; Proske, Herwig; Granica, Klaus; Schweigl, Joachim; Pomaroli, Gilbert

    2010-05-01

    Landslide susceptibility modelling and implementation of the resulting maps is still a challenge for geoscientists, spatial and infrastructure planners. Particularly on a regional scale landslide processes and their dynamics are poorly understood. Furthermore, the availability of appropriate spatial data in high resolution is often a limiting factor for modelling high quality landslide susceptibility maps for large study areas. However, these maps form an important basis for preventive spatial planning measures. Thus, new methods have to be developed, especially focussing on the implementation of final maps into spatial planning processes. The main objective of the project "MoNOE" (Method development for landslide susceptibility modelling in Lower Austria) is to design a method for landslide susceptibility modelling for a large study area (about 10.200 km²) and to produce landslide susceptibility maps which are finally implemented in the spatial planning strategies of the Federal state of Lower Austria. The project focuses primarily on the landslide types fall and slide. To enable susceptibility modelling, landslide inventories for the respective landslide types must be compiled and relevant data has to be gathered, prepared and homogenized. Based on this data new methods must be developed to tackle the needs of the spatial planning strategies. Considerable efforts will also be spent on the validation of the resulting maps for each landslide type. A great challenge will be the combination of the susceptibility maps for slides and falls in just one single susceptibility map (which is requested by the government) and the definition of the final visualisation. Since numerous landslides have been favoured or even triggered by human impact, the human influence on landslides will also have to be investigated. Furthermore possibilities to integrate respective findings in regional susceptibility modelling will be explored. According to these objectives the project is

  2. Dynamic model of Fire Growth in Abernethy Estate and Glen Tanar using FARSITE simulator

    OpenAIRE

    Grabowiecka, Magdalena

    2008-01-01

    Most of the vegetation fires in Great Britain are of an anthropogenic nature. The possibility of a wildfire occurrence depends on the combination of human behaviour, the type and condition of the vegetation and the weather conditions. By using FARSITE – Fire Area Simulator it is easy to develop a two-dimensional output such as Fire Growth model on personal computer. The simulator incorporates existing fire behaviour models of surface fire spread, crown fire, fire acceleration, fuel moisture a...

  3. Modeling fuels and fire effects in 3D: Model description and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois Pimont; Russell Parsons; Eric Rigolot; Francois de Coligny; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Philippe Dreyfus; Rodman R. Linn

    2016-01-01

    Scientists and managers critically need ways to assess how fuel treatments alter fire behavior, yet few tools currently exist for this purpose.We present a spatially-explicit-fuel-modeling system, FuelManager, which models fuels, vegetation growth, fire behavior (using a physics-based model, FIRETEC), and fire effects. FuelManager's flexible approach facilitates...

  4. Stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maduro Almeida, Rodolfo; Macau, Elbert E N

    2011-01-01

    A stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread under flat terrain and no-wind conditions is proposed and its dynamics is characterized and analyzed. One of three possible states characterizes each cell: vegetation cell, burning cell and burnt cell. The dynamics of fire spread is modeled as a stochastic event with an effective fire spread probability S which is a function of three probabilities that characterize: the proportion of vegetation cells across the lattice, the probability of a burning cell becomes burnt, and the probability of the fire spread from a burning cell to a neighboring vegetation cell. A set of simulation experiments is performed to analyze the effects of different values of the three probabilities in the fire pattern. Monte-Carlo simulations indicate that there is a critical line in the model parameter space that separates the set of parameters which a fire can propagate from those for which it cannot propagate. Finally, the relevance of the model is discussed under the light of computational experiments that illustrate the capability of the model catches both the dynamical and static qualitative properties of fire propagation.

  5. Model of fire spread around Krsko Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidmar, P.; Petelin, S.

    2001-01-01

    The idea behind the article is how to define fire behaviour. The work is based on an analytical study of fire origin, its development and spread. The study is based on thermodynamics, heat transfer and the study of hydrodynamics and combustion, which represent the bases of fire dynamics. The article shows a practical example of a leak of hazardous chemicals from a tank. Because of the inflammability of the fluid, fire may start. We have tried to model fire propagation around the Krsko power plant, and show what extended surrounding area could be affected. The model also considers weather conditions, in particular wind speed and direction. For this purpose we have used the computer code Safer Trace, which is based on zone models. That means that phenomena are described by physical and empirical equations. An imperfection in this computer code is the inability to consider ground topology. However in the case of the Krsko power plant, topology is not so important, as the plan is located in a relatively flat region. Mathematical models are presented. They show the propagation of hazardous fluid in the environment considering meteorological data. The work also shows which data are essential to define fire spread and shows the main considerations of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for external fire event.(author)

  6. Modeling topographic influences on fuel moisture and fire danger in complex terrain to improve wildland fire management decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachary A. Holden; W. Matt Jolly

    2011-01-01

    Fire danger rating systems commonly ignore fine scale, topographically-induced weather variations. These variations will likely create heterogeneous, landscape-scale fire danger conditions that have never been examined in detail. We modeled the evolution of fuel moistures and the Energy Release Component (ERC) from the US National Fire Danger Rating System across the...

  7. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  8. Theta-specific susceptibility in a model of adaptive synaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albers, Christian; Schmiedt, Joscha T; Pawelzik, Klaus R

    2013-01-01

    Learning and memory formation are processes which are still not fully understood. It is widely believed that synaptic plasticity is the most important neural substrate for both. However, it has been observed that large-scale theta band oscillations in the mammalian brain are beneficial for learning, and it is not clear if and how this is linked to synaptic plasticity. Also, the underlying dynamics of synaptic plasticity itself have not been completely uncovered yet, especially for non-linear interactions between multiple spikes. Here, we present a new and simple dynamical model of synaptic plasticity. It incorporates novel contributions to synaptic plasticity including adaptation processes. We test its ability to reproduce non-linear effects on four different data sets of complex spike patterns, and show that the model can be tuned to reproduce the observed synaptic changes in great detail. When subjected to periodically varying firing rates, already linear pair based spike timing dependent plasticity (STDP) predicts a specific susceptibility of synaptic plasticity to pre- and postsynaptic firing rate oscillations in the theta-band. Our model retains this band-pass property, while for high firing rates in the non-linear regime it modifies the specific phase relation required for depression and potentiation. For realistic parameters, maximal synaptic potentiation occurs when the postsynaptic is trailing the presynaptic activity slightly. Anti-phase oscillations tend to depress it. Our results are well in line with experimental findings, providing a straightforward and mechanistic explanation for the importance of theta oscillations for learning.

  9. Fire Modeling Institute: FY2012 Annual Report: Bridging scientists and managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Innes

    2013-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) brings the best available fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear in fire-related management issues. Although located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program of the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, FMI is a national and international resource, serving fire...

  10. Villaflores: Municipal forest fire management model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedro Martínez Muñoz; Carlos Alberto Velázquez Sanabria

    2013-01-01

    As provided for in the General Law on Sustainable Forestry Development, the Municipality of Villaflores has worked on a continuous basis since 2002 to reduce the damage caused by forest fires as part of its working agenda, in conjunction with Federal and State agencies and NGOs. The work plan has the following phases: a) Inter-agency coordination:...

  11. Modeling the spreading of large-scale wildland fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed Drissi

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a stochastic small-world network model with those of a deterministic semi-physical model of the interaction between burning and non-burning...

  12. Use of models to study forest fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace L. Fons

    1961-01-01

    The U.S. Forest Service has started a laboratory study with the ultimate objective of determining model laws for fire behavior. The study includes an examination of the effect of such variables as species of wood, density of wood, moisture content, size of fuel particle, spacing, dimensions of fuel bed, wind, and slope on the rate of spread of fire and the partition of...

  13. [Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

    2012-05-01

    Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

  14. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and potential application to fire and fuels management for the Savannah River Site.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan

    2011-12-20

    This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.

  15. Optimal control in a model of malaria with differential susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincapié, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan

    2014-06-01

    A malaria model with differential susceptibility is analyzed using the optimal control technique. In the model the human population is classified as susceptible, infected and recovered. Susceptibility is assumed dependent on genetic, physiological, or social characteristics that vary between individuals. The model is described by a system of differential equations that relate the human and vector populations, so that the infection is transmitted to humans by vectors, and the infection is transmitted to vectors by humans. The model considered is analyzed using the optimal control method when the control consists in using of insecticide-treated nets and educational campaigns; and the optimality criterion is to minimize the number of infected humans, while keeping the cost as low as is possible. One first goal is to determine the effects of differential susceptibility in the proposed control mechanism; and the second goal is to determine the algebraic form of the basic reproductive number of the model. All computations are performed using computer algebra, specifically Maple. It is claimed that the analytical results obtained are important for the design and implementation of control measures for malaria. It is suggested some future investigations such as the application of the method to other vector-borne diseases such as dengue or yellow fever; and also it is suggested the possible application of free software of computer algebra like Maxima.

  16. Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

    2012-12-01

    Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model

  17. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

  18. Optimized carbon dioxide removal model for gas fired power plant

    OpenAIRE

    Arachchige, Udara Sampath P.; Mohsin, Muhammad; Melaaen, Morten Christian

    2012-01-01

    The carbon capture process model was developed for 500MW gas-fired power plant flue gas treating. Three different efficiencies, 85%, 90%, and 95%, were used to implement the model in Aspen Plus. The electrolyte NRTL rate base model was used to develop the model. The selected solvent properties were used to develop and implemented model is used for further simulations. The implemented open loop base case model of 85% removal efficiency is used to check the parameters' effect on removal efficie...

  19. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based landslide susceptibility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, Giovanna; Formetta, Giuseppe; Versace, Pasquale

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. This paper presents a package of GIS based models for landslide susceptibility analysis. It was integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model using the Object Modeling System (OMS) modeling framework. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices (GOF) by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system offers the possibility to investigate and fairly compare the quality and the robustness of models and models parameters, according a procedure that includes: i) model parameters estimation by optimizing each of the GOF index separately, ii) models evaluation in the ROC plane by using each of the optimal parameter set, and iii) GOF robustness evaluation by assessing their sensitivity to the input parameter variation. This procedure was repeated for all three models. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, Average Index (AI) optimization coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. This research was funded by PON Project No. 01_01503 "Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk

  20. FEM modelling of firing temperature and stress zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulle, W.; Schultz, K. [Bergakademie Freiberg (Germany)

    1999-03-01

    In the introduction, the principal possibilities of using finite element modelling (FEM) for problem solving in the firing processes of ceramics are given. Subsequently, two concrete application examples are described. In the first example, the temperature and stress calculation during biscuit firing of porcelain is discussed. The results are given for the influence of the heating rate for stacked firing and single-layer firing of flat tableware, the influence of the positioning of the individual plates in the plate stack, and changes in shape of the article during the formation of temperature and stress fields could be estimated. In a second example, the heat stresses that arise during the firing of high voltage insulators were calculated. It can be shown how the progression of the stresses is influenced by the body geometry, especially with the insulators ''cup'' design. During the course of the firing process, a regulating influence is possible. The examples should encourage further problem solving by specific use of FEM. (orig.)

  1. Multifractal model of magnetic susceptibility distributions in some igneous rocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Gettings

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of in-situ magnetic susceptibility were compiled from mainly Precambrian crystalline basement rocks beneath the Colorado Plateau and ranges in Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. The susceptibility meter used measures about 30 cm3 of rock and measures variations in the modal distribution of magnetic minerals that form a minor component volumetrically in these coarsely crystalline granitic to granodioritic rocks. Recent measurements include 50–150 measurements on each outcrop, and show that the distribution of magnetic susceptibilities is highly variable, multimodal and strongly non-Gaussian. Although the distribution of magnetic susceptibility is well known to be multifractal, the small number of data points at an outcrop precludes calculation of the multifractal spectrum by conventional methods. Instead, a brute force approach was adopted using multiplicative cascade models to fit the outcrop scale variability of magnetic minerals. Model segment proportion and length parameters resulted in 26 676 models to span parameter space. Distributions at each outcrop were normalized to unity magnetic susceptibility and added to compare all data for a rock body accounting for variations in petrology and alteration. Once the best-fitting model was found, the equation relating the segment proportion and length parameters was solved numerically to yield the multifractal spectrum estimate. For the best fits, the relative density (the proportion divided by the segment length of one segment tends to be dominant and the other two densities are smaller and nearly equal. No other consistent relationships between the best fit parameters were identified. The multifractal spectrum estimates appear to distinguish between metamorphic gneiss sites and sites on plutons, even if the plutons have been metamorphosed. In particular, rocks that have undergone multiple tectonic events tend to have a larger range of scaling exponents.

  2. Application of Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho Vieira, Bianca; Martins, Tiago D.

    2017-04-01

    Shallow landslides and floods are the processes responsible for most material and environmental damages in Brazil. In the last decades, some landslides events induce a high number of deaths (e.g. Over 1000 deaths in one event) and incalculable social and economic losses. Therefore, the prediction of those processes is considered an important tool for land use planning tools. Among different methods the physically based landslide susceptibility models having been widely used in many countries, but in Brazil it is still incipient when compared to other ones, like statistical tools and frequency analyses. Thus, the main objective of this research was to assess the application of some Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil, identifying their main results, the efficiency of susceptibility mapping, parameters used and limitations of the tropical humid environment. In order to achieve that, it was evaluated SHALSTAB, SINMAP and TRIGRS models in some studies in Brazil along with the Geotechnical values, scales, DEM grid resolution and the results based on the analysis of the agreement between predicted susceptibility and the landslide scar's map. Most of the studies in Brazil applied SHALSTAB, SINMAP and to a lesser extent the TRIGRS model. The majority researches are concentrated in the Serra do Mar mountain range, that is a system of escarpments and rugged mountains that extends more than 1,500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, and regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements. Most part of these studies used conventional topographic maps with scales ranging from 1:2000 to 1:50000 and DEM-grid resolution between 2 and 20m. Regarding the Geotechnical and hydrological values, a few studies use field collected data which could produce more efficient results, as indicated by international literature. Therefore, even though they have enormous potential in the susceptibility mapping, even for comparison

  3. Numerical modeling of the effects of fire-induced convection and fire-atmosphere interactions on wildfire spread and fire plume dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ruiyu

    It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a

  4. Modeling spatial patterns of wildfire susceptibility in southern California: Applications of MODIS remote sensing data and mesoscale numerical weather models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Philipp

    This dissertation investigates the potential of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and mesoscale numerical weather models for mapping wildfire susceptibility in general and for improving the Fire Potential Index (FPI) in southern California in particular. The dissertation explores the use of the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) from MODIS data for mapping relative greenness (RG) of vegetation and subsequently for computing the FPI. VARI-based RG was validated against in situ observations of live fuel moisture. The results indicate that VARI is superior to the previously used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for computing RG. FPI computed using VARI-based RG was found to outperform the traditional FPI when validated against historical fire detections using logistic regression. The study further investigates the potential of using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) on MODIS data for estimating live and dead fractions of vegetation. MESMA fractions were compared against in situ measurements and fractions derived from data of a high-resolution, hyperspectral sensor. The results show that live and dead fractions obtained from MODIS using MESMA are well correlated with the reference data. Further, FPI computed using MESMA-based green vegetation fraction in lieu of RG was validated against historical fire occurrence data. MESMA-based FPI performs at a comparable level to the traditional NDVI-based FPI, but can do so using a single MODIS image rather than an extensive remote sensing time series as required for the RG approach. Finally this dissertation explores the potential of integrating gridded wind speed data obtained from the MM5 mesoscale numerical weather model in the FPI. A new fire susceptibility index, the Wind-Adjusted Fire Potential Index (WAFPI), was introduced. It modifies the FPI algorithm by integrating normalized wind speed. Validating WAFPI against historical wildfire events using

  5. Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton

    2009-01-01

    Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...

  6. GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE WITH APPLICATIONS IN SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTIOUS-SUSCEPTIBLE MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilea, M; Turnea, M; Arotăriţei, D; Rotariu, Mariana; Popescu, Marilena

    2015-01-01

    Practical significance of understanding the dynamics and evolution of infectious diseases increases continuously in contemporary world. The mathematical study of the dynamics of infectious diseases has a long history. By incorporating statistical methods and computer-based simulations in dynamic epidemiological models, it could be possible for modeling methods and theoretical analyses to be more realistic and reliable, allowing a more detailed understanding of the rules governing epidemic spreading. To provide the basis for a disease transmission, the population of a region is often divided into various compartments, and the model governing their relation is called the compartmental model. To present all of the information available, a graphical user interface provides icons and visual indicators. The graphical interface shown in this paper is performed using the MATLAB software ver. 7.6.0. MATLAB software offers a wide range of techniques by which data can be displayed graphically. The process of data viewing involves a series of operations. To achieve it, I had to make three separate files, one for defining the mathematical model and two for the interface itself. Considering a fixed population, it is observed that the number of susceptible individuals diminishes along with an increase in the number of infectious individuals so that in about ten days the number of individuals infected and susceptible, respectively, has the same value. If the epidemic is not controlled, it will continue for an indefinite period of time. By changing the global parameters specific of the SIS model, a more rapid increase of infectious individuals is noted. Using the graphical user interface shown in this paper helps achieving a much easier interaction with the computer, simplifying the structure of complex instructions by using icons and menus, and, in particular, programs and files are much easier to organize. Some numerical simulations have been presented to illustrate theoretical

  7. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for viral marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Siti Suhaila; Akil, Ku Azlina Ku; Chulan, Majdah; Sharif, Noorzila

    2017-11-01

    Viral marketing is a marketing strategy utilizes social media to spread information about a product or services provided. It is the most powerful way to share information in a short amount of time. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic of viral marketing within a time duration in the point of view of mathematics. This study used the epidemiological model known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). The model consists of a system of three differential equations with three state variables namely susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). It considers a case of SIR model with demography. Numerical experiments have been performed. The results show that viral marketing reaches its peak within two days. The online messages shared will become higher if the initial number of the infected individual has been increased.

  8. Phase transition of the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on time-varying configuration model networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Onge, Guillaume; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Laurence, Edward; Murphy, Charles; Dubé, Louis J.

    2018-02-01

    We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework on a given degree distribution, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary state using the rewiring rate to explore the whole range of the time variation of the structure relative to that of the SIS process. This analysis is suitable for the characterization of the phase transition and leads to three main contributions: (1) We obtain a self-consistent expression for the absorbing-state threshold, able to capture both collective and hub activation. (2) We recover the predictions of a number of existing approaches as limiting cases of our analysis, providing thereby a unifying point of view for the SIS dynamics on random networks. (3) We obtain bounds for the critical exponents of a number of quantities in the stationary state. This allows us to reinterpret the concept of hub-dominated phase transition. Within our framework, it appears as a heterogeneous critical phenomenon: observables for different degree classes have a different scaling with the infection rate. This phenomenon is followed by the successive activation of the degree classes beyond the epidemic threshold.

  9. Measurement strategy and analytic model to determine firing pin force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesenciuc, Ioan; Suciu, Cornel

    2016-12-01

    As illustrated in literature, ballistics is a branch of theoretical mechanics, which studies the construction and working principles of firearms and ammunition, their effects, as well as the motions of projectiles and bullets1. Criminalistics identification, as part of judiciary identification represents an activity aimed at finding common traits of different objects, objectives, phenomena and beings, but more importantly, traits that differentiate each of them from similar ones2-4. In judicial ballistics, in the case of rifled firearms it is relatively simple for experts to identify the used weapon from traces left on the projectile, as the rifling of the barrel leaves imprints on the bullet, which remain approximately identical even after the respective weapon is fired 100 times with the same barrel. However, in the case of smoothbore firearms, their identification becomes much more complicated. As the firing cap suffers alterations from being hit by the firing pin, determination of the force generated during impact creates the premises for determining the type of firearm used to shoot the respective cartridge. The present paper proposes a simple impact model that can be used to evaluate the force generated by the firing pin during its impact with the firing cap. The present research clearly showed that each rifle, by the combination of the three investigated parameters (impact force maximum value, its variation diagram, and impact time) leave a unique trace. Application of such a method in ballistics can create the perspectives for formulating clear conclusions that eliminate possible judicial errors in this field.

  10. Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

    2016-01-01

    Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

  11. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfes in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cozzani, V.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in

  12. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in

  13. Combining fire and erosion modeling to target forest management activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Elliot; Mary Ellen Miller; Nic Enstice

    2015-01-01

    Forests deliver a number of important ecosystem services including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing, quantity and quality of runoff are altered. A modeling study was carried out in a forested watershed in California to determine the risk of wildfire, and the potential post-fire sediment delivery from approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons...

  14. Targeting forest management through fire and erosion modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Elliot; Mary Ellen Miller; Nic Enstice

    2016-01-01

    Forests deliver a number of important ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing, quantity and quality of runoff are altered. A modelling study was conducted in a forested watershed in California, USA, to determine the risk of wildfire, and the potential post-fire sediment delivery from ~4-ha hillslope polygons within...

  15. Some comments on the Parametric Fire Model of Eurocode 1

    OpenAIRE

    Reitgrüber, Stefan; Pérez-Jimenez, Christian; Di Blasi, Colomba; Franssen, Jean-Marc

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the modifications that have been recently introduced in the parametric fire model of Eurocode 1 are presented. The reasons behind these modifications are given. Some Problems that have been discovered in the present formulation are highlighted, namely the fact that the model is not continuous and the fact that the heat release of wood that has been used for the calibration of the model is not consistent anymore with the value that is now recommended in the Eurocode. A proposal ...

  16. Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

    2012-01-01

    Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

  17. New Approach in Modelling Indonesian Peat Fire Emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Saharjo, B.; Yokelson, R. J.; Stockwell, C.; Vetrita, Y.; Zhang, X.; Hagen, S. C.; Nurhayati, A. D.; Graham, L.

    2017-12-01

    Peat fires are a serious problem for Indonesia, producing devastating environmental effects and making the country the 3rd largest emitter of CO2. Extensive fires ravaged vast areas of peatlands in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua during the pronounced El-Nino of 2015, causing international concern when the resultant haze blanketed Indonesia and neighboring countries, severely impacting the health of millions of people. Our recent unprecedented in-situ studies of aerosol and gas emissions from 35 peat fires of varying depths near Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan have documented the range and variability of emissions from these major fires. We strongly suggest revisions to previously recommended IPPC's emission factors (EFs) from peat fires, notably: CO2 (-8%), CH4 (-55%), NH3 (-86%), and CO (+39%). Our findings clearly showed that Indonesian carbon equivalent measurements (100 years) might have been 19% less than what current IPCC emission factors indicate. The results also demonstrate the toxic air quality in the area with HCN, which is almost only emitted by biomass burning, accounting for 0.28% and the carcinogenic compound formaldehyde 0.04% of emissions. However, considerable variation in emissions may exist between peat fires of different Indonesian peat formations, illustrating the need for additional regional field emissions measurements for parameterizing peatland emissions models for all of Indonesia's major peatland areas. Through the continuous mutual research collaboration between the Indonesian and USA scientists, we will implement our standardized field-based analyses of fuels, hydrology, peat burning characteristics and fire emissions to characterize the three major Indonesian peatland formations across four study provinces (Central Kalimantan, Riau, Jambi and West Papua). We will provide spatial and temporal drivers of the modeled emissions and validate them at a national level using biomass burning emissions estimations derived from Visible

  18. Model design to predict forest fire risk in Navarra (Spain) using time series analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Huesca, M.; Litago, J.; Palacios-Orueta, A.; Merino de Miguel, Silvia

    2008-01-01

    Understand and predict how forest fire potential changes over time are essential for prioritizing forest management activities and reducing damage. Nowadays we lack the capacity to predict future forest fire trends in response to climate change. The main goal of this research is to build an empirical model to describe, estimate and forecast the forest fires dynamics using the improved Fire Potential Index (FPI) (Huesca et al., 2007) as indicator of fire.

  19. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  20. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    : a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat...

  1. BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2009-01-01

    This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

  2. On Fire regime modelling using satellite TM time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddi, F.; . Ghermandi, L.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfires can cause an environment deterioration modifying vegetation dynamics because they have the capacity of changing vegetation diversity and physiognomy. In semiarid regions, like the northwestern Patagonia, fire disturbance is also important because it could impact on the potential productivity of the ecosystem. There is reduction plant biomass and with that reducing the animal carrying capacity and/or the forest site quality with negative economics implications. Therefore knowledge of the fires regime in a region is of great importance to understand and predict the responses of vegetation and its possible effect on the regional economy. Studies of this type at a landscape level can be addressed using GIS tools. Satellite imagery allows detect burned areas and through a temporary analysis can be determined to fire regime and detecting changes at landscape scale. The study area of work is located on the east of the city of Bariloche including the San Ramon Ranch (22,000 ha) and its environs in the ecotone formed by the sub Antarctic forest and the patagonian steppe. We worked with multiespectral Landsat TM images and Landsat ETM + 30m spatial resolution obtained at different times. For the spatial analysis we used the software Erdas Imagine 9.0 and ArcView 3.3. A discrimination of vegetation types has made and was determined areas affected by fires in different years. We determined the level of change on vegetation induced by fire. In the future the use of high spatial resolution images combined with higher spectral resolution will allows distinguish burned areas with greater precision on study area. Also the use of digital terrain models derived from satellite imagery associated with climatic variables will allows model the relationship between them and the dynamics of vegetation.

  3. The Morris-Lecar neuron model embeds a leaky integrate-and-fire model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Greenwood, Priscilla

    2013-01-01

    We showthat the stochastic Morris–Lecar neuron, in a neighborhood of its stable point, can be approximated by a two-dimensional Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) modulation of a constant circular motion. The associated radial OU process is an example of a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model prior to firing...

  4. A Susceptible Mouse Model for Zika Virus Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart D Dowall

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is a mosquito-borne pathogen which has recently spread beyond Africa and into Pacific and South American regions. Despite first being detected in 1947, very little information is known about the virus, and its spread has been associated with increases in Guillain-Barre syndrome and microcephaly. There are currently no known vaccines or antivirals against ZIKV infection. Progress in assessing interventions will require the development of animal models to test efficacies; however, there are only limited reports on in vivo studies. The only susceptible murine models have involved intracerebral inoculations or juvenile animals, which do not replicate natural infection. Our report has studied the effect of ZIKV infection in type-I interferon receptor deficient (A129 mice and the parent strain (129Sv/Ev after subcutaneous challenge in the lower leg to mimic a mosquito bite. A129 mice developed severe symptoms with widespread viral RNA detection in the blood, brain, spleen, liver and ovaries. Histological changes were also striking in these animals. 129Sv/Ev mice developed no clinical symptoms or histological changes, despite viral RNA being detectable in the blood, spleen and ovaries, albeit at lower levels than those seen in A129 mice. Our results identify A129 mice as being highly susceptible to ZIKV and thus A129 mice represent a suitable, and urgently required, small animal model for the testing of vaccines and antivirals.

  5. First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM 4.0, user's guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Robert E. Keane; James K. Brown

    1997-01-01

    A First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was developed to predict the direct consequences of prescribed fire and wildfire. FOFEM computes duff and woody fuel consumption, smoke production, and fire-caused tree mortality for most forest and rangeland types in the United States. The model is available as a computer program for PC or Data General computer.

  6. Fires involving radioactive materials : transference model; operative recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, C.E.; Puntarulo, L.J.; Canibano, J.A.

    1988-01-01

    In all aspects related to the nuclear activity, the occurrence of an explosion, fire or burst type accident, with or without victims, is directly related to the characteristics of the site. The present work analyses the different parameters involved, describing a transference model and recommendations for evaluation and control of the radiological risk for firemen. Special emphasis is placed on the measurement of the variables existing in this kind of operations

  7. Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bastos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion.

    The main goals of the present work are (i to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively.

    The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998–2009, at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to

  8. Beyond "fire temperatures": calibrating thermocouple probes and modeling their response to surface fires in hardwood fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony S. Bova; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2008-01-01

    The maximum temperatures of thermocouples, temperature-sensitive paints, and calorimeters exposed to flames in wildland fires are often called "fire temperatures" but are determined as much by the properties and deployment of the measurement devices as by the fires themselves. Rather than report device temperatures that are not generally comparable among...

  9. Understanding global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of vegetation and fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Ian D. Davies; Michael D. Flannigan; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; T. Scott Rupp

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a major disturbance in most ecosystems worldwide (Crutzen and Goldammer 1993). The interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans, often referred to as the fire regime (Agee 1993; Clark 1993; Swetnam and Baisan 1996; Swetnam 1997), has major effects on dominant vegetation, ecosystem carbon budget, and biodiversity (Gardner et aL...

  10. Modeling impacts of fire severity on successional trajectories and future fire behavior in Alaskan boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jill F. Johnstone; T. Scott Rupp; Mark Olson; David. Verbyla

    2011-01-01

    Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous...

  11. Blended-fuel based EDC combustion model and its application in heptane-ethanol fire simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjian Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The blended-fuel based eddy-dissipation-concept combustion model was newly developed in the FireFOAM framework, and applied to simulate 30 cm×30 cm heptane-ethanol pool fire. Comparison was made of fire height, centerline temperature against experimental measurements, which shows that they match very well with each other. However, further studies are needed to examine the validation of this model in fire simulations with various scales.

  12. Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

  13. Identification of fire modeling issues based on an analysis of real events from the OECD FIRE database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermann, Dominik [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Brugg (Switzerland)

    2017-03-15

    Precursor analysis is widely used in the nuclear industry to judge the significance of events relevant to safety. However, in case of events that may damage equipment through effects that are not ordinary functional dependencies, the analysis may not always fully appreciate the potential for further evolution of the event. For fires, which are one class of such events, this paper discusses modelling challenges that need to be overcome when performing a probabilistic precursor analysis. The events used to analyze are selected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Fire Incidents Records Exchange (FIRE) Database.

  14. Susceptibility genes for schizophrenia: mutant models, endophenotypes and psychobiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Tuathaigh, Colm M P; Desbonnet, Lieve; Moran, Paula M; Waddington, John L

    2012-01-01

    Schizophrenia is characterised by a multifactorial aetiology that involves genetic liability interacting with epigenetic and environmental factors to increase risk for developing the disorder. A consensus view is that the genetic component involves several common risk alleles of small effect and/or rare but penetrant copy number variations. Furthermore, there is increasing evidence for broader, overlapping genetic-phenotypic relationships in psychosis; for example, the same susceptibility genes also confer risk for bipolar disorder. Phenotypic characterisation of genetic models of candidate risk genes and/or putative pathophysiological processes implicated in schizophrenia, as well as examination of epidemiologically relevant gene × environment interactions in these models, can illuminate molecular and pathobiological mechanisms involved in schizophrenia. The present chapter outlines both the evidence from phenotypic studies in mutant mouse models related to schizophrenia and recently described mutant models addressing such gene × environment interactions. Emphasis is placed on evaluating the extent to which mutant phenotypes recapitulate the totality of the disease phenotype or model selective endophenotypes. We also discuss new developments and trends in relation to the functional genomics of psychosis which might help to inform on the construct validity of mutant models of schizophrenia and highlight methodological challenges in phenotypic evaluation that relate to such models.

  15. Research and application of the heat transfer model of Coalfield fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiguo, Dong; Zhongyong, Cai; Chunxia, Xu

    2010-05-01

    Coalfield fire is a common disaster of human. The status of coalfield fire in the world, the ways and character of coalfield fire heat transfer, were introduced in this paper on the purpose of quantifying the coal burnt in the Coalfield fire, the greenhouse gas released and the exploitation of CDM methodology. The heat of coalfield fire was released into the atmosphere by four ways: radiation, convection, carried by concentrated emission gas and dispersing emission gas. Based on the conservative principle, the heat transfer model of Coalfield fire was established. Based on the energy conservation law and the element conservation principle, the quantity of coal burned and CO2 released of the Coalfield fire can be calculated through the quantity of heat transferred. Applying this model into the practical calculation of the south fire zone of Shuixi Gou Coalfield Fire, Jimsar County, Xinjiang, P.R. China, the result show that the burnt coal of this fire zone is about 41.6 kiloton per year; the quantity of CO2 released is about 106.3 kiloton per year. The establishment of the heat transfer model of Coalfield fire has very important signification for quantifying the evaluation of the influence of coalfield fire to environment and resource, also for exploiting coalfield fire extinguishing CDM methodology.

  16. Complex susceptibility of the cage model of polar liquids

    CERN Document Server

    Coffey, W T; Kalmykov, Yu P; Titov, S V

    2003-01-01

    The Langevin equations of motion of the cage model of polar liquids originally proposed by Hill (1963 Proc. Phys. Soc. 82 723) are solved for the first time for the particular case of rotation about a fixed axis, using a newly developed matrix continued fraction method. It is shown that the cage model predicts both the low-frequency Debye relaxation and a pronounced high-frequency (Poley) absorption peak in the far-infrared (FIR) region. The similarity of the equations of motion of the cage model to the equations which arise in the problem of generalizing the Onsager model of polar fluids to include a time-varying applied field suggests that the FIR (Poley) absorption may have its origins in the combined influence of molecular inertia and the torque due to the reaction field in the frequency-dependent version of the Onsager model. The complex susceptibility yielded by the cage model is shown to be in good agreement with experimental data on CH sub 3 Cl that were taken as a typical example. Moreover, a simple ...

  17. Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maureen C. Kennedy; Donald. McKenzie

    2010-01-01

    Fire-scarred trees provide a deep temporal record of historical fire activity, but identifying the mechanisms therein that controlled landscape fire patterns is not straightforward. We use a spatially correlated metric for fire co-occurrence between pairs of trees (the Sørensen distance variogram), with output from a neutral model for fire history, to infer the...

  18. Challenges of assessing fire and burn severity using field measures, remote sensing and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penelope Morgan; Robert E. Keane; Gregory K. Dillon; Theresa B. Jain; Andrew T. Hudak; Eva C. Karau; Pamela G. Sikkink; Zachery A. Holden; Eva K. Strand

    2014-01-01

    Comprehensive assessment of ecological change after fires have burned forests and rangelands is important if we are to understand, predict and measure fire effects. We highlight the challenges in effective assessment of fire and burn severity in the field and using both remote sensing and simulation models. We draw on diverse recent research for guidance on assessing...

  19. EcoSmart Fire as structure ignition model in wildland urban interface: predictions and validations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Dietenberger; Charles R. Boardman

    2016-01-01

    EcoSmartFire is a Windows program that models heat damage and piloted ignition of structures from radiant exposure to discrete landscaped tree fires. It calculates the radiant heat transfer from cylindrical shaped fires to the walls and roof of the structure while accounting for radiation shadowing, attenuation, and ground reflections. Tests of litter burn, a 0.6 m...

  20. Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Robert E. Keane; Brigitte Dorner; Joseph Fall

    2007-01-01

    We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of...

  1. A data model for route planning in the case of forest fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Z.; Zlatanova, S.; Moreno, A.; Van Oosterom, P.J.M.; Toro, C.

    2013-01-01

    The ability to guide relief vehicles to safety and quickly pass through environments affected by fires is critical in fighting forest fires. In this paper, we focus on route determination in the case of forest fires, and propose a data model that supports finding paths among moving obstacles. This

  2. Modelling of Fire in an Open Car Park

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marton, Timea; Dederichs, Anne Simone; Giuliani, Luisa

    2015-01-01

    Steel car parks exhibit high vulnerability to fire, as a consequence of the degradation of the steel mechanical properties at high temperatures and of the combustible type and amount. Real fire accidents in open car parks demonstrated a much faster and extended fire spread than predictions......, assuming that a fire spread rate of 12 min and consider at most 3-4 vehicles on fire at the same time. Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) is applied in this current paper to study fire spread between cars. The outcomes of the investigations show that the fire spread is strongly influenced by the geometrical...... layout and that the distance between cars plays a determinant role on the fire spread rate and ignition of adjacent cars. In particular it was found that the fire spread can be faster than 12 minutes in the case of the cars parked 40 and 60 cm from each other....

  3. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trika Pitana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  4. Multi-Model R-Tool for uncertainty assessment in landslides susceptibility analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosmin Sandric, Ionut; Chitu, Zenaida; Jurchescu, Marta; Micu, Mihai

    2014-05-01

    The evaluation of landslide susceptibility requires understanding of the spatial distribution of the factors that control slope instability. It is known that the behavior of landslides is difficult to evaluate because of the various factors that trigger mass movements. The methodology used is very diverse, based on statistical methods, probabilistic methods, deterministic methods, empirical methods or a combination of them and the main factors used for landslide susceptibility assessment are composed from basic morphometric parameters, such as slope gradient, curvature, aspect, solar radiation etc. in combination with lithology, land-use/land-cover, soil types or soil properties. The reliability of susceptibility maps is mostly estimated by a comparison with ground truth and visualized as charts and statistical tables and less by maps for landslides susceptibility uncertainty. Due to similarity of inputs required by numerous susceptibility models, we have developed a Multi-Model tool for R, a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics, combines several landslides susceptibility models into one forecast, thereby improving the forecast accuracy even further. The tool uses as inputs all the predisposing factors and generates susceptibility maps for each model; it combines the resulted susceptibility maps in just one and assesses the uncertainty as a function of susceptibility levels from each map. The final results are susceptibility and uncertainty maps as a function of several susceptibility models. The Multi-Model R-Tool was tested in different areas from Romanian Subcarpathians with very good results

  5. Focus on the studies in support of fire safety analysis. IRSN modelling approach for nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espargilliere, Julien; Meyrand, Raphael; Vinot, Thierry [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2015-12-15

    For a fire safety analysis, in order to comply with nuclear safety goals, a nuclear fuel facility operator has to define the elements important for safety to be maintained, even in the case of a fire. One of the key points of this fire analysis is the assessment of possible fire scenarios in the facility. This paper presents the IRSN method applied to a case study to assess fire scenarios which have the most harmful effects on safety targets. The layout consists in a central room (fire cell) containing three glove boxes with radioactive material and three electrical cabinets. This room is linked to two connecting compartments (the fire cell and these two compartments define the containment cell) and then to two corridors. Each room is equipped with a mechanical ventilation system, and a pressure cascade is established from the corridors to the central room. A fire scenario was studied with fire ignition occurring in an electrical cabinet. This scenario has a set of safety goals (prevention of fire cell and containment device failure, propagation of the fire). This case study was conducted with the IRSN code SYLVIA based on two zones modelling. Safety goals were associated with key parameters and performance criteria to be fulfilled. Modelling assumptions were defined in order to maximize physical effects of the fire. Sensitivity studies were also conducted on key parameters such as oxygen limitation, equivalent-fuel definition. Eventually, a critical analysis of the code models was carried out.

  6. Discrete time Markov chains (DTMC) susceptible infected susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with two pathogens in two patches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lismawati, Eka; Respatiwulan; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    The SIS epidemic model describes the pattern of disease spread with characteristics that recovered individuals can be infected more than once. The number of susceptible and infected individuals every time follows the discrete time Markov process. It can be represented by the discrete time Markov chains (DTMC) SIS. The DTMC SIS epidemic model can be developed for two pathogens in two patches. The aims of this paper are to reconstruct and to apply the DTMC SIS epidemic model with two pathogens in two patches. The model was presented as transition probabilities. The application of the model obtain that the number of susceptible individuals decreases while the number of infected individuals increases for each pathogen in each patch.

  7. Reactivating dynamics for the susceptible-infected-susceptible model: a simple method to simulate the absorbing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo-Filho, A.; Alves, G. A.; Costa Filho, R. N.; Alves, T. F. A.

    2018-04-01

    We investigated the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a square lattice in the presence of a conjugated field based on recently proposed reactivating dynamics. Reactivating dynamics consists of reactivating the infection by adding one infected site, chosen randomly when the infection dies out, avoiding the dynamics being trapped in the absorbing state. We show that the reactivating dynamics can be interpreted as the usual dynamics performed in the presence of an effective conjugated field, named the reactivating field. The reactivating field scales as the inverse of the lattice number of vertices n, which vanishes at the thermodynamic limit and does not affect any scaling properties including ones related to the conjugated field.

  8. Modeling Relationships among 217 Fires Using Remote Sensing of Burn Severity in Southern Pine Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Abd-Elrahman

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Pine flatwoods forests in the southeastern US have experienced severe wildfires over the past few decades, often attributed to fuel load build-up. These forest communities are fire dependent and require regular burning for ecosystem maintenance and health. Although prescribed fire has been used to reduce wildfire risk and maintain ecosystem integrity, managers are still working to reintroduce fire to long unburned areas. Common perception holds that reintroduction of fire in long unburned forests will produce severe fire effects, resulting in a reluctance to prescribe fire without first using expensive mechanical fuels reduction techniques. To inform prioritization and timing of future fire use, we apply remote sensing analysis to examine the set of conditions most likely to result in high burn severity effects, in relation to vegetation, years since the previous fire, and historical fire frequency. We analyze Landsat imagery-based differenced Normalized Burn Ratios (dNBR to model the relationships between previous and future burn severity to better predict areas of potential high severity. Our results show that remote sensing techniques are useful for modeling the relationship between elevated risk of high burn severity and the amount of time between fires, the type of fire (wildfire or prescribed burn, and the historical frequency of fires in pine flatwoods forests.

  9. Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment: Coordination of a study to improve smoke modeling for fire operations within the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, N. H. F.; Ottmar, R. D.; Brown, T. J.; Larkin, N. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is an integrative research effort to identify and collect critical measurements to improve operational wildland fire and smoke prediction systems. FASMEE has two active phases and one suggested phase. Phase 1 is the analysis and planning process to assess the current state of fire-plume-smoke modeling and to determine the critical measurements required to evaluate and improve these operational fire and smoke models. As the major deliverable for Phase 1, a study plan has been completed that describes the measurement needs, field campaigns, and command, safety and air space de-confliction plans necessary to complete the FASMEE project. Phase 2 is a set of field campaigns to collect data during 2019-2022. Future Improvements would be a set of analyses and model improvements based on the data collected within Phase 2 that is dependent on identifying future funding sources. In this presentation, we will review the FASMEE Study Plan and detailed measurements and conditions expected for the four to five proposed research burns. The recommended measurements during Phase 2 span the four interrelated disciplines of FASMEE: fuels and consumption, fire behavior and energy, plume dynamics and meteorology, and smoke emissions, chemistry, and transport. Fuel type, condition, and consumption during wildland fire relates to several fire impacts including radiative heating, which provides the energy that drives fire dynamics. Local-scale meteorology is an important factor which relates to atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, and transport. Plume dynamics provide the connection between fire behavior and far-field smoke dispersion, because it determines the vertical distribution of the emissions. Guided by the data needs and science questions generated during Phase 1, three wildland fire campaigns were selected. These included the western wildfire campaign (rapid deployment aimed at western wildfires supporting NOAA, NASA, and NSF

  10. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud

    2015-01-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  11. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  12. Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System Failure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nino Prieto, Omar Ariosto; Colmenares Guillen, Luis Enrique

    2013-09-01

    In this paper the Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System is presented. This architecture is a legacy of the Detection System for Real-Time Physical Variables which is undergoing a patent process in Mexico. The methodologies for this design are the Structured Analysis for Real Time (SA- RT) [8], and the software is carried out by LACATRE (Langage d'aide à la Conception d'Application multitâche Temps Réel) [9,10] Real Time formal language. The system failures model is analyzed and the proposal is based on the formal language for the design of critical systems and Risk Assessment; AltaRica. This formal architecture uses satellites as input sensors and it was adapted from the original model which is a design pattern for physical variation detection in Real Time. The original design, whose task is to monitor events such as natural disasters and health related applications, or actual sickness monitoring and prevention, as the Real Time Diabetes Monitoring System, among others. Some related work has been presented on the Mexican Space Agency (AEM) Creation and Consultation Forums (2010-2011), and throughout the International Mexican Aerospace Science and Technology Society (SOMECYTA) international congress held in San Luis Potosí, México (2012). This Architecture will allow a Real Time Fire Satellite Monitoring, which will reduce the damage and danger caused by fires which consumes the forests and tropical forests of Mexico. This new proposal, permits having a new system that impacts on disaster prevention, by combining national and international technologies and cooperation for the benefit of humankind.

  13. Construction and Quantification of the One Top model of the Fire Events PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Han, Sang Hoon

    2008-01-01

    KAERI constructed the one top model of the fire events PSA for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 by using the 'mapping technique'. The mapping technique was developed for the construction and quantification of external events PSA models with a one top model for an internal events PSA. With 'AIMS', the mapping technique can be implemented by the construction of mapping tables. The mapping tables include fire rooms, fire ignition frequency, related initiating events, fire transfer events, and the internal PSA basic events affected by a fire. The constructed one top fire PSA model is based on previously conducted fire PSA results for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4. In this paper, we introduce the construction procedure and quantification results of the one top model of the fire events PSA by using the mapping technique. As the one top model of the fire events PSA developed in this study is based on the previous study, we also introduce the previous fire PSA approach focused on quantification

  14. Vegetation, fire, and feedbacks: a disturbance-mediated model of savannas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckage, Brian; Platt, William J; Gross, Louis J

    2009-12-01

    Savanna models that are based on recurrent disturbances such as fire result in nonequilibrium savannas, but these models rarely incorporate vegetation feedbacks on fire frequency or include more than two states (grasses and trees). We develop a disturbance model that includes vegetation-fire feedbacks, using a system of differential equations to represent three main components of savannas: grasses, fire-tolerant savanna trees, and fire-intolerant forest trees. We investigate the stability of savannas in the presence of positive feedbacks of fire frequency with (1) grasses, (2) savanna trees, and (3) grasses and savanna trees together while also allowing for negative feedbacks of forest trees on fire frequency. We find that positive feedbacks between fire frequency and savanna trees, alone or together with grasses, can stabilize savannas, blocking the conversion of savannas to forests. Negative feedbacks of forest trees on fire frequency shift the range of parameter space that supports savannas, but they do not generally alter our results. We propose that pyrogenic trees that modify characteristics of fire regimes are ecosystem engineers that facilitate the persistence of savannas, generating both threshold fire frequencies with rapid changes in community composition when these thresholds are crossed and hystereses with bistable community states.

  15. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    -Leal et al., 2006). Stolle and Lambin (2003) noted that flammable fuel depends on ... advantages over conventional fire detection and fire monitoring methods because ofits repetitive andconsistent coverage over large areas of land (Martin et ...

  16. Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard R. Parresol; Joe H. Scott; Anne Andreu; Susan Prichard; Laurie Kurth

    2012-01-01

    Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or...

  17. What determines area burned in large landscapes? Insights from a decade of comparative landscape-fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Russ A. Parsons

    2015-01-01

    Understanding what determines area burned in large landscapes is critical for informing wildland fire management in fire-prone environments and for representing fire activity in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. For the past ten years, a group of landscape-fire modellers have been exploring the relative influence of key determinants of area burned in temperate and...

  18. Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Vacchiano

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995–2009 and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i winter forest fires, (ii winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter–early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %; lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90–0.95. Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation and winter (negative fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

  19. Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacchiano, Giorgio; Foderi, Cristiano; Berretti, Roberta; Marchi, Enrico; Motta, Renzo

    2018-03-01

    Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995-2009) and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i) winter forest fires, (ii) winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii) summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter-early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %); lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90-0.95). Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation) and winter (negative) fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

  20. Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; Daniel L. Schmoldt

    2000-01-01

    In 1996, a team of North American fire scientists and resource managers convened to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems and to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations - elicited with the Analytic Hierarchy Process - include numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and...

  1. Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Using the Data Mining Models Artificial Neural Network and Boosted Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Joo Oh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present some potential applications of sophisticated data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN and boosted tree (BT, for landslide susceptibility modeling in the Yongin area, Korea. Initially, landslide inventory was detected from visual interpretation using digital aerial photographic maps with a high resolution of 50 cm taken before and after the occurrence of landslides. The debris flows were randomly divided into two groups: training and validation sets with a 50:50 proportion. Additionally, 18 environmental factors related to landslide occurrence were derived from the topography, soil, and forest maps. Subsequently, the data mining techniques were applied to identify the influence of environmental factors on landslide occurrence of the training set and assess landslide susceptibility. Finally, the landslide susceptibility indexes from ANN and BT were compared with a validation set using a receiver operating characteristics curve. The slope gradient, topographic wetness index, and timber age appear to be important factors in landslide occurrence from both models. The validation result of ANN and BT showed 82.25% and 90.79%, which had reasonably good performance. The study shows the benefit of selecting optimal data mining techniques in landslide susceptibility modeling. This approach could be used as a guideline for choosing environmental factors on landslide occurrence and add influencing factors into landslide monitoring systems. Furthermore, this method can rank landslide susceptibility in urban areas, thus providing helpful information when selecting a landslide monitoring site and planning land-use.

  2. Comparison of the landslide susceptibility models in Taipei Water Source Domain, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, C. Y.; Yeh, Y. C.; Chou, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    Taipei Water Source Domain, locating at the southeast of Taipei Metropolis, is the main source of water resource in this region. Recently, the downstream turbidity often soared significantly during the typhoon period because of the upstream landslides. The landslide susceptibilities should be analysed to assess the influence zones caused by different rainfall events, and to ensure the abilities of this domain to serve enough and quality water resource. Generally, the landslide susceptibility models can be established based on either a long-term landslide inventory or a specified landslide event. Sometimes, there is no long-term landslide inventory in some areas. Thus, the event-based landslide susceptibility models are established widely. However, the inventory-based and event-based landslide susceptibility models may result in dissimilar susceptibility maps in the same area. So the purposes of this study were to compare the landslide susceptibility maps derived from the inventory-based and event-based models, and to interpret how to select a representative event to be included in the susceptibility model. The landslide inventory from Typhoon Tim in July, 1994 and Typhoon Soudelor in August, 2015 was collected, and used to establish the inventory-based landslide susceptibility model. The landslides caused by Typhoon Nari and rainfall data were used to establish the event-based model. The results indicated the high susceptibility slope-units were located at middle upstream Nan-Shih Stream basin.

  3. A fire suppression model for forested range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq herds of caribou

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald C. Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A fire suppression model was developed for forested winter range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq (formerly Kaminuriak herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus in north-central Canada. The model is a balance between total protection, as voiced by some aboriginal people, and a let-burn policy for natural fires advocated by some ecologists. Elements in the model were caribou ecology, lichen recovery after fire, burn history, community priorities for caribou hunting, and fire cycle lengths. The percent ratio of current productive caribou habitat to the goal for that habitat determines whether fire should be suppressed in a specific area. The goals for productive caribou habitat, defined as forests older than 50 years, were scaled by fire cycle length and community priority ranking. Thus, the model is an example of co-management: traditional knowledge combined with science in a joint forum, the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq Caribou Management Board.

  4. National fire danger assessment and ecosystem restoration using remote sensing and ecological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Z.; Rollins, M.

    Hazardous fuel reduction, ecosystem rehabilitation and restoration, and firefighting safety, are land management priorities emphasized by recent national fire policies such as the National Fire Plan. Implementation of these policies requires geospatial data of vegetation conditions, fire fuels, risks, and ecosystem status developed consistently nationwide that can be used at multiple scales (i.e., local, regional, and national). A new research and development project called LANDFIRE is being conducted to develop an integrated methodology to produce geospatial fire data and predictive models for the land management community and a broad range of other applications. Main deliverables include mapped potential and existing vegetation types and vegetation structure parameters, various biophysical data layers, fire fuels models, fire risk layers, as well as state-of-the-art computer models for assessing fire risk, behavior and effects. In this presentation, we will review research results and findings of the LANDFIRE project using results from a prototype study covering central Utah Uinta and Wasatch ecosystems. Particularly we will describe how a consistent and operational vegetation mapping component may be achieved by integrating machine-learning algorithms, field reference data, satellite imagery, and ecologically significant biophysical variables. We will discuss how remotely sensed vegetation cover types and structure can be successfully converted to fire fuel classes and risk layers which are necessary input into fire behavior and fire effect models. Finally we will discuss challenges and opportunities for national implementation of the methodology.

  5. National Fire Fuels and Risks Assessment Using Remote Sensing and Ecological Modeling: Prototype Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Z.; Rollins, M.

    2003-12-01

    Hazardous fuel reduction, ecosystem rehabilitation and restoration, and firefighting safety, are land management priorities emphasized by recent national fire policies such as the National Fire Plan. Implementation of these policies requires geospatial data of vegetation conditions, fire fuels, risks, and ecosystem status developed consistently nationwide that can be used at multiple scales (i.e., local, regional, and national). A new research and development project called LANDFIRE has been conducted to develop an integrated methodology to produce geospatial fire data and predictive models for the land management community and a broad range of other applications. Main deliverables include mapped potential and existing vegetation types and structure variables, various biophysical data layers, fire fuels models, fire risk layers, as well as state-of-the-art computer models for assessing fire risk, behavior and effects. In this presentation, we will review research results and findings of the LANDFIRE project using results from a prototype study covering central Utah Uinta and Wasatch ecosystems. Particularly we will describe how a consistent and operational vegetation mapping component may be achieved by integrating machine-learning algorithms, field reference data, satellite imagery, and ecologically significant biophysical variables. We will discuss how remotely sensed vegetation cover types and structure can be successfully converted to fire fuel classes and risk layers which are necessary input into fire behavior and fire effect models. Finally we will discuss challenges and opportunities for national implementation of the methodology.

  6. Development of a Base Model for the New Fire PSA Training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kilyoo; Kang, Daeil; Kim, Wee Kyong; Do, Kyu Sik

    2013-01-01

    US NRC/EPRI issued a new fire PSA method represented by NUREG/CR 6850, and have been training many operators and inspectors to widely spread the new method. However, there is a limitation in time and efficiency for many foreigners, who generally have communication problem, to participate in the EPRI/NRC training to learn the new method. Since it is about time to introduce the new fire PSA method as a regulatory requirement for the fire protection in Korea, a simple and easy-understandable base model for the fire PSA training is required, and KAERI-KINS is jointly preparing the base model for the new fire PSA training. This paper describes how the base model is developed. Using an imaginary simple NPP, a base model of fire PSA following the new fire PSA method was developed in two ways from the internal PSA model. Since we have the base model and know the process of making the fire PSA model, the training for the new fire PSA method can be in detail performed in Korea

  7. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehrwald, Natalie; Aleman, Julie C.; Coughlan, Michael; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Githumbi, Esther N.; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitchell J.

    2016-01-01

    The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov) notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate.

  8. Theory-Based Cartographic Risk Model Development and Application for Home Fire Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furmanek, Stephen; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol

    There is a gap in the use of predictive risk models to identify areas at risk for home fires and burn injury. The purpose of this study was to describe the creation, validation, and application of such a model using a sample from an intervention study with parents of newborns in Jefferson County, KY, as an example. Performed was a literature search to identify risk factors for home fires and burn injury in the target population. Obtained from the American Community Survey at the census tract level and synthesized to create a predictive cartographic risk model was risk factor data. Model validation was performed through correlation, regression, and Moran's I with fire incidence data from open records. Independent samples t-tests were used to examine the model in relation to geocoded participant addresses. Participant risk level for fire rate was determined and proximity to fire station service areas and hospitals. The model showed high and severe risk clustering in the northwest section of the county. Strongly correlated with fire rate was modeled risk; the best predictive model for fire risk contained home value (low), race (black), and non high school graduates. Applying the model to the intervention sample, the majority of participants were at lower risk and mostly within service areas closest to a fire department and hospital. Cartographic risk models were useful in identifying areas at risk and analyzing participant risk level. The methods outlined in this study are generalizable to other public health issues.

  9. Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C

    2015-05-01

    Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.

  10. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

  11. Modeling and Risk Mapping of Forest Fires using Remote Sensing and GIS (Case Study: Baghe-Shadi Protected Area, Yazd Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Najafi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Baghe-shadi in Yazd province is one the forests which is reported to be an area with high rate fire occurrence. The aim of this study was to model and map the fire risk area using geographic information system and remote sensing. In this study Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP with human related factors (distance from road, distance from settlements, and distance from vegetation, climatic related factors (air temperature and rainfall, and physiographic related factors (elevation, slope, aspect were selected. Vegetation cover was estimated using Landsat OLI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI. Weights were determined from specialists through questionnaire. Weight of each factor, elevation, slope and aspect, temperature, precipitation, distance from roads, distance from settlements and vegetation cover was achieved through multiple criteria decision making model, then areas with five susceptible classes were determined using GIS. Results showed that vegetation related factor and human related factor with weights of 0.569 and 0.204 are the most important factors respectively. In order to assess the accuracy of developed model, fire susceptibility map of was compared with the previously fired area. Result of comparison showed very high and high risk areas are corresponding to the controls area. Receiver operating charasteristic (ROC test confirmed the high level (0.88 of accuracy of presented model.

  12. Analysis of biomass co-firing systems in Taiwan power markets using linear complementarity models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Ming-Che; Lin, Chun-Hung [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Chou, Chun-An [Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Rutgers University, 96 Frelinghuysen Rd, Piscataway, NJ 08854 (United States); Hsu, Shao-Yiu [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400, N Charles St, Ames-313, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Wen, Tzai-Hung, E-mail: wenthung@ntu.edu.tw [Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

    2011-08-15

    Biomass co-firing systems in power plants generate electric power by the simultaneous combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. The co-firing process reduces investment costs by converting biomass energy into electricity in existing conventional power plants. Biomass co-firing significantly reduces carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions in power generation. To meet the increase in biomass demand, this paper has considered systematic energy crop production, which is expected to increase in the near future. Our aim is to analyze biomass co-firing systems in the Taiwanese electricity market. In this paper, we study two emerging biomass feedstocks: switchgrass and Miscanthus. We focus on the impact of energy crop co-firing on carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions for electricity generation. A Nash-Cournot competition model, which simulates potential biomass co-firing scenarios, is formulated for power markets. A case study conducted in the Taiwanese electricity market showed that biomass co-firing lowers total electricity demand and sale. Miscanthus is more economical than switchgrass in terms of the production cost and the land required to generate biopower for the same levels of biomass co-firing. - Highlights: > Biomass co-firing system in electricity market is analyzed in this paper. > The research studies the impact of two energy crops in co-firing system. > This paper conducts a case study of co-firing system in Taiwan power markets.

  13. Spatial modeling of fires: a predictive tool for La Primavera Forest, Jalisco Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Luis Ibarra-Montoya

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of various elements of socioeconomic, political and cultural nature, influenced by landscape and climatic factors, are important aspects of fire regimes. Space models that integrate these elements and factors help to more accurately predict potential fire areas. The Protected Area Wildlife La Primavera (APFFLP is the main regulator of the climate of the Guadalajara metropolitan area, and forest fires frequently occur there. These represent a challenge for science and technology to develop methodologies that help predict forest fires. This study involves the construction of a spatial model that helps identify potential areas of fire in that area. The model integrates meteorological variables, landscape, fuels, anthropogenic and / or causality, and historical occurrences of fires during the period 1998-2012. According to the model, the variables that determine the areas of greatest fire potential are: slope (landscape, relative humidity (weather, vegetation type (causality and land use (anthropogenic. The model predicts a large area with high potential for fire, located in the central and northwest APFFLP polygon; also, there are small, isolated potential zones in the eastern part of the polygon. The information developed by this study could support the generation of local risk maps, thereby optimizing the actions of fire management and restoration of the La Primavera forest.

  14. Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Large Fire Size, Counts, and Intensities Using the Large Fire Simulator (FSim)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, K. L.; Haas, J. R.; Finney, M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in climate can be expected to cause changes in wildfire activity due to a combination of shifts in weather (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) and vegetation. Changes in vegetation could include type conversions, altered forest structure, and shifts in species composition, the effects of which could be mitigated or exacerbated by management activities. Further, changes in suppression response and effectiveness may alter potential wildfire activity, as well as the consequences of wildfire. Feedbacks among these factors are extremely complex and uncertain. The ability to anticipate changes driven by fire weather (largely outside of human control) can lead to development of fire and fuel management strategies aimed at mitigating current and future risk. Therefore, in this study we focus on isolating the effects of climate-induced changes in weather on wildfire activity. Specifically, we investigated the effect of changes in weather on fire activity in the Canadian Rockies ecoregion, which encompasses Glacier National Park and several large wilderness areas to the south. To model the ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires, we used the Large Fire Simulator (FSim), which we coupled with current and projected future climatic conditions. Weather streams were based on data from 14 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 45 and 85 for the years 2040-2060. While all GCMs indicate increases in temperature for this area, which would be expected to exacerbate fire activity, precipitation predictions for the summer wildfire season are more variable, ranging from a decrease of approximately 50 mm to an increase of approximately 50 mm. Windspeeds are generally predicted to decrease, which would reduce rates of spread and fire intensity. The net effect of these weather changes on the size, number, and intensity

  15. Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

  16. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-BURN Subsystem, part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    1986-01-01

    Describes BURN Subsystem, Part 1, the operational fire behavior prediction subsystem of the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system. The manual covers operation of the computer program, assumptions of the mathematical models used in the calculations, and application of the predictions.

  17. Local buckling of fire-exposed aluminum members: New design model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2010-01-01

    Design models for local buckling of fire-exposed aluminum sections are currently lacking. Based on analyses with validated finite-element models, this paper investigates local buckling of extruded sections with stress-strain relationships representative for fire-exposed aluminum alloys. Due to the

  18. Effects of fire on major forest ecosystem processes: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhong

    2006-09-01

    Fire and fire ecology are among the best-studied topics in contemporary ecosystem ecology. The large body of existing literature on fire and fire ecology indicates an urgent need to synthesize the information on the pattern of fire effects on ecosystem composition, structure, and functions for application in fire and ecosystem management. Understanding fire effects and underlying principles are critical to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic wildfires and for proper use of fire as an effective management tool toward management goals. This overview is a synthesis of current knowledge on major effects of fire on fire-prone ecosystems, particularly those in the boreal and temperate regions of the North America. Four closely related ecosystem processes in vegetation dynamics, nutrient cycling, soil and belowground process and water relations were discussed with emphases on fire as the driving force. Clearly, fire can shape ecosystem composition, structure and functions by selecting fire adapted species and removing other susceptible species, releasing nutrients from the biomass and improving nutrient cycling, affecting soil properties through changing soil microbial activities and water relations, and creating heterogeneous mosaics, which in turn, can further influence fire behavior and ecological processes. Fire as a destructive force can rapidly consume large amount of biomass and cause negative impacts such as post-fire soil erosion and water runoff, and air pollution; however, as a constructive force fire is also responsible for maintaining the health and perpetuity of certain fire-dependent ecosystems. Considering the unique ecological roles of fire in mediating and regulating ecosystems, fire should be incorporated as an integral component of ecosystems and management. However, the effects of fire on an ecosystem depend on the fire regime, vegetation type, climate, physical environments, and the scale of time and space of assessment. More ecosystem

  19. Tunnel fire testing and modeling the Morgex North tunnel experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Borghetti, Fabio; Gandini, Paolo; Frassoldati, Alessio; Tavelli, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    This book aims to cast light on all aspects of tunnel fires, based on experimental activities and theoretical and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. In particular, the authors describe a transient full-scale fire test (~15 MW), explaining how they designed and performed the experimental activity inside the Morgex North tunnel in Italy. The entire organization of the experiment is described, from preliminary evaluations to the solutions found for management of operational difficulties and safety issues. This fire test allowed the collection of different measurements (temperature, air velocity, smoke composition, pollutant species) useful for validating and improving CFD codes and for testing the real behavior of the tunnel and its safety systems during a diesel oil fire with a significant heat release rate. Finally, the fire dynamics are compared with empirical correlations, CFD simulations, and literature measurements obtained in other similar tunnel fire tests. This book will be of interest to all ...

  20. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  1. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  2. Computational fluid dynamics in fire engineering theory, modelling and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Yuen, Kwok Kit

    2009-01-01

    Fire and combustion presents a significant engineering challenge to mechanical, civil and dedicated fire engineers, as well as specialists in the process and chemical, safety, buildings and structural fields. We are reminded of the tragic outcomes of 'untenable' fire disasters such as at King's Cross underground station or Switzerland's St Gotthard tunnel. In these and many other cases, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is at the forefront of active research into unravelling the probable causes of fires and helping to design structures and systems to ensure that they are less likely in the f

  3. Modeling In-Stream Hydro-Geomorphic Processes After 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires can have significant impacts on hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Post-fire sediment transport and runoff generation vary by burn severity, precipitation, and vegetation. A need exists to understand these variable relationships and improve parameterization of post-fire hydro-geomorphic models. This research aims to model pre-fire geomorphic and hydrologic processes in Williams Canyon, a watershed burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado. We develop the KINematic Runoff and EROSion (KINEROS) model with Geographical Information System (GIS)-based information, including a Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil classification, precipitation, and soil burn severity for a local reference watershed that is unburned. We transfer these parameters to a channel reach in Williams Canyon (Williams Downstream) and adjust them toward post-fire conditions. We model runoff and sediment yield for several storms following the fire. Three post-fire terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) images (21 April 2013, 14 September 2013, and 16 September 2014) are used to estimate total erosion and deposition at the reach scale. We use the LiDAR-based information to calibrate the post-fire model. Preliminary modeling results indicate 3870-125 kg/ha of sediment in the Williams Downstream reach. The uncalibrated model overestimated (410% in the first year) and underestimated (87.2% in the second year) the erosion. Model calibration reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of sediment to 0.016% for the first year and 0.09% for the second year. The parameters calibrated for the Williams Downstream channel reach will be used to develop models for seven other channel reaches within the area burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire, where the performance can be evaluated with LiDAR estimates. Results of this research will enhance our understanding of wildfire disturbance on coupled hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Findings will also improve model parameterization that can

  4. The changing radiative forcing of fires: global model estimates for past, present and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Ward

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Fires are a global phenomenon that impact climate and biogeochemical cycles, and interact with the biosphere, atmosphere and cryosphere. These impacts occur on a range of temporal and spatial scales and are difficult to quantify globally based solely on observations. Here we assess the role of fires in the climate system using model estimates of radiative forcing (RF from global fires in pre-industrial, present day, and future time periods. Fire emissions of trace gases and aerosols are derived from Community Land Model simulations and then used in a series of Community Atmosphere Model simulations with representative emissions from the years 1850, 2000, and 2100. Additional simulations are carried out with fire emissions from the Global Fire Emission Database for a present-day comparison. These results are compared against the results of simulations with no fire emissions to compute the contribution from fires. We consider the impacts of fire on greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects (including aerosol effects on biogeochemical cycles, and land and snow surface albedo. Overall, we estimate that pre-industrial fires were responsible for a RF of −1 W m−2 with respect to a pre-industrial climate without fires. The largest magnitude pre-industrial forcing from fires was the indirect aerosol effect on clouds (−1.6 W m−2. This was balanced in part by an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations due to fires (+0.83 W m−2. The RF of fires increases by 0.5 W m−2 from 1850 to 2000 and 0.2 W m−2 from 1850 to 2100 in the model representation from a combination of changes in fire activity and changes in the background environment in which fires occur, especially increases and decreases in the anthropogenic aerosol burden. Thus, fires play an important role in both the natural equilibrium climate and the climate perturbed by anthropogenic activity and need to be considered in future

  5. Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

    2015-01-01

    Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spr...

  6. Modeling tree-level fuel connectivity to evaluate the effectiveness of thinning treatments for reducing crown fire potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marco A. Contreras; Russell A. Parsons; Woodam Chung

    2012-01-01

    Land managers have been using fire behavior and simulation models to assist in several fire management tasks. These widely-used models use average attributes to make stand-level predictions without considering spatial variability of fuels within a stand. Consequently, as the existing models have limitations in adequately modeling crown fire initiation and propagation,...

  7. The effectiveness and limitations of fuel modeling using the fire and fuels extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Nicole M. Vaillant; Alicia L. Reiner

    2014-01-01

    Fuel treatment effectiveness is often evaluated with fire behavior modeling systems that use fuel models to generate fire behavior outputs. How surface fuels are assigned, either using one of the 53 stylized fuel models or developing custom fuel models, can affect predicted fire behavior. We collected surface and canopy fuels data before and 1, 2, 5, and 8 years after...

  8. Simulating the Effects of Fire on Forests in the Russian Far East: Integrating a Fire Danger Model and the FAREAST Forest Growth Model Across a Complex Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, N. J.; Loboda, T.; Sun, G.; Shugart, H. H.; Csiszar, I.

    2008-12-01

    The remaining natural habitat of the critically endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) and Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a vast, biologically and topographically diverse area in the Russian Far East (RFE). Although wildland fire is a natural component of ecosystem functioning in the RFE, severe or repeated fires frequently re-set the process of forest succession, which may take centuries to return the affected forests to the pre-fire state and thus significantly alters habitat quality and long-term availability. The frequency of severe fire events has increased over the last 25 years, leading to irreversible modifications of some parts of the species' habitats. Moreover, fire regimes are expected to continue to change toward more frequent and severe events under the influence of climate change. Here we present an approach to developing capabilities for a comprehensive assessment of potential Amur tiger and leopard habitat availability throughout the 21st century by integrating regionally parameterized fire danger and forest growth models. The FAREAST model is an individual, gap-based model that simulates forest growth in a single location and demonstrates temporally explicit forest succession leading to mature forests. Including spatially explicit information on probabilities of fire occurrence at 1 km resolution developed from the regionally specific remotely -sensed data-driven fire danger model improves our ability to provide realistic long-term projections of potential forest composition in the RFE. This work presents the first attempt to merge the FAREAST model with a fire disturbance model, to validate its outputs across a large region, and to compare it to remotely-sensed data products as well as in situ assessments of forest structure. We ran the FAREAST model at 1,000 randomly selected points within forested areas in the RFE. At each point, the model was calibrated for temperature, precipitation, slope, elevation, and fire

  9. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  10. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  11. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  12. Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively. Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8% with no very high susceptibility (0%. Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management.

  13. Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsengiyumva, Jean Baptiste; Luo, Geping; Nahayo, Lamek; Huang, Xiaotao; Cai, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively). Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8%) with no very high susceptibility (0%). Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management. PMID:29385096

  14. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar

    2014-01-01

    Fuel consumption specifies the amount of vegetative biomass consumed during wildland fire. It is a two-stage process of pyrolysis and combustion that occurs simultaneously and at different rates depending on the characteristics and condition of the fuel, weather, topography, and in the case of prescribed fire, ignition rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic...

  15. Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

  16. Factors in adoption of a fire department wellness program: champ-and-chief model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuehl, Hannah; Mabry, Linda; Elliot, Diane L; Kuehl, Kerry S; Favorite, Kim C

    2013-04-01

    To identify and evaluate determinants of fire departments' wellness program adoption. The Promoting Healthy Lifestyles: Alternative Models' Effects fire service wellness program was offered for free to all medium-sized fire departments in Oregon and Washington. An invitation to participate was mailed to key fire department decision makers (chief, union president, and wellness officer). These key decision makers from 12 sites that adopted the program and 24 matched nonadopting sites were interviewed and results were analyzed to define adoption determinants. Three adoption requirements were identified: (1) mailer connection, (2) local firefighter wellness champion, and (3) willing fire chief, whereas a fourth set of organizational factors had little or no impact on adoption including previous and ongoing wellness activities, financial pressures, and resistance to change. Findings identified determinants of medium-sized fire service wellness program adoption.

  17. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Temiño Villota, Salomé; Rodríguez Trejo, Dante A.; Molina Terrén, Domingo; Ryan, Kevin C.

    2016-01-01

    Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burne...

  18. Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

    2014-05-01

    Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

  19. Using Modeling and Rehearsal to Teach Fire Safety to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, David; Dukes, Charles; Brady, Michael P.; Scott, Jack; Wilson, Cynthia L.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the efficacy of an instructional procedure to teach young children with autism to evacuate settings and notify an adult during a fire alarm. A multiple baseline design across children showed that an intervention that included modeling, rehearsal, and praise was effective in teaching fire safety skills. Safety skills generalized to…

  20. First-order fire effects on herbs and Shrubs: present knowledge and process modeling needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Stephan; Melanie Miller; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Herbaceous plants and shrubs have received little attention in terms of fire effects modeling despite their critical role in ecosystem integrity and resilience after wildfires and prescribed burns. In this paper, we summarize current knowledge of direct effects of fire on herb and shrub (including cacti) vegetative tissues and seed banks, propose key components for...

  1. Modeling wildland fire containment with uncertain flame length and fireline width

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romain Mees; David Strauss; Richard Chase

    1993-01-01

    We describe a mathematical model for the probability that a fireline succeeds in containing a fire. The probability increases as the fireline width increases, and also as the fire's flame length decreases. More interestingly, uncertainties in width and flame length affect the computed containment probabilities, and can thus indirectly affect the optimum allocation...

  2. Advancing investigation and physical modeling of first-order fire effects on soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Massman; John M. Frank; Sacha J. Mooney

    2010-01-01

    Heating soil during intense wildland fires or slash-pile burns can alter the soil irreversibly, resulting in many significant long-term biological, chemical, physical, and hydrological effects. To better understand these long-term effects, it is necessary to improve modeling capability and prediction of the more immediate, or first-order, effects that fire can have on...

  3. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to

  4. Modeling fires in adjacent ship compartments with computational fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Cole, J.K.; Koski, J.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the thermal effects on radioactive (RAM) transportation packages with a fire in an adjacent compartment. An assumption for this analysis is that the adjacent hold fire is some sort of engine room fire. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis tools were used to perform the analysis in order to include convective heat transfer effects. The analysis results were compared to experimental data gathered in a series of tests on tile US Coast Guard ship Mayo Lykes located at Mobile, Alabama

  5. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  6. Satellite, climatological, and theoretical inputs for modeling of the diurnal cycle of fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.; Schmidt, C. C.; Giglio, L.; Prins, E.

    2009-12-01

    The diurnal cycle of fire activity is crucial for accurate simulation of atmospheric effects of fire emissions, especially at finer spatial and temporal scales. Estimating diurnal variability in emissions is also a critical problem for construction of emissions estimates from multiple sensors with variable coverage patterns. An optimal diurnal emissions estimate will use as much information as possible from satellite fire observations, compensate known biases in those observations, and use detailed theoretical models of the diurnal cycle to fill in missing information. As part of ongoing improvements to the Fire Location and Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) fire monitoring system, we evaluated several different methods of integrating observations with different temporal sampling. We used geostationary fire detections from WF_ABBA, fire detection data from MODIS, empirical diurnal cycles from TRMM, and simple theoretical diurnal curves based on surface heating. Our experiments integrated these data in different combinations to estimate the diurnal cycles of emissions for each location and time. Hourly emissions estimates derived using these methods were tested using an aerosol transport model. We present results of this comparison, and discuss the implications of our results for the broader problem of multi-sensor data fusion in fire emissions modeling.

  7. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  8. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  9. An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Lu [Sate Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230027 (China); Huang, Xianjia, E-mail: huangxianjia@gziit.ac.cn [Joint Laboratory of Fire Safety in Nuclear Power Plants, Institute of Industry Technology Guangzhou & Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 511458 (China); Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang [China Nuclear Power Design Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518045 (China)

    2016-05-15

    Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.

  10. Pre-fire and post-fire surface fuel and cover measurements collected in the southeastern United States for model evaluation and development - RxCADRE 2008, 2011 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar; Andrew T. Hudak; Susan J. Prichard; Clinton S. Wright; Joseph C. Restaino; Maureen C. Kennedy; Robert E. Vihnanek

    2016-01-01

    A lack of independent, quality-assured data prevents scientists from effectively evaluating predictions and uncertainties in fire models used by land managers. This paper presents a summary of pre-fire and post-fire fuel, fuel moisture and surface cover fraction data that can be used for fire model evaluation and development. The data were collected in the...

  11. The Design of a Fire Source in Scale-Model Experiments with Smoke Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm; Brohus, Henrik; la Cour-Harbo, H.

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes the design of a fire and a smoke source for scale-model experiments with smoke ventilation. It is only possible to work with scale-model experiments where the Reynolds number is reduced compared to full scale, and it is demonstrated that special attention to the fire source...... (heat and smoke source) may improve the possibility of obtaining Reynolds number independent solutions with a fully developed flow. The paper shows scale-model experiments for the Ofenegg tunnel case. Design of a fire source for experiments with smoke ventilation in a large room and smoke movement...

  12. A combustion model of vegetation burning in "Tiger" fire propagation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannino, F.; Ascoli, D.; Sirignano, M.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Rego, F.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a semi-physical model for the burning of vegetation in a wildland fire. The main physical-chemical processes involved in fire spreading are modelled through a set of ordinary differential equations, which describe the combustion process as linearly related to the consumption of fuel. The water evaporation process from leaves and wood is also considered. Mass and energy balance equations are written for fuel (leaves and wood) assuming that combustion process is homogeneous in space. The model is developed with the final aim of simulating large-scale wildland fires which spread on heterogeneous landscape while keeping the computation cost very low.

  13. Modeling syngas-fired gas turbine engines with two dilutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Mitchell E.

    2011-12-01

    Prior gas turbine engine modeling work at the University of Wyoming studied cycle performance and turbine design with air and CO2-diluted GTE cycles fired with methane and syngas fuels. Two of the cycles examined were unconventional and innovative. The work presented herein reexamines prior results and expands the modeling by including the impacts of turbine cooling and CO2 sequestration on GTE cycle performance. The simple, conventional regeneration and two alternative regeneration cycle configurations were examined. In contrast to air dilution, CO2 -diluted cycle efficiencies increased by approximately 1.0 percentage point for the three regeneration configurations examined, while the efficiency of the CO2-diluted simple cycle decreased by approximately 5.0 percentage points. For CO2-diluted cycles with a closed-exhaust recycling path, an optimum CO2-recycle pressure was determined for each configuration that was significantly lower than atmospheric pressure. Un-cooled alternative regeneration configurations with CO2 recycling achieved efficiencies near 50%, which was approximately 3.0 percentage points higher than the conventional regeneration cycle and simple cycle configurations that utilized CO2 recycling. Accounting for cooling of the first two turbine stages resulted in a 2--3 percentage point reduction in un-cooled efficiency, with air dilution corresponding to the upper extreme. Additionally, when the work required to sequester CO2 was accounted for, cooled cycle efficiency decreased by 4--6 percentage points, and was more negatively impacted when syngas fuels were used. Finally, turbine design models showed that turbine blades are shorter with CO2 dilution, resulting in fewer design restrictions.

  14. PyrE, an interactive fire module within the NASA-GISS Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezuman, K.; Bauer, S. E.; Tsigaridis, K.

    2017-12-01

    Fires directly affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth's radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. Having an interactive fire module in an Earth System Model allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of biomass burning in different time periods. To do so we have developed PyrE, the NASA-GISS interactive fire emissions model. PyrE uses the flammability, ignition, and suppression parameterization proposed by Pechony and Shindell (2009), and is coupled to a burned area and surface recovery parameterization. The burned area calculation follows CLM's approach (Li et al., 2012), paired with an offline recovery scheme based on Ent's Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) carbon pool turnover time. PyrE is driven by environmental variables calculated by climate simulations, population density data, MODIS fire counts and LAI retrievals, as well as GFED4s emissions. Since the model development required extensive use of reference datasets, in addition to comparing it to GFED4s BA, we evaluate it by studying the effect of fires on atmospheric composition and climate. Our results show good agreement globally, with some regional differences. Finally, we quantify the present day fire radiative forcing. The development of PyrE allowed us for the first time to interactively simulate climate and fire activity with GISS-ModelE3

  15. Fire spread in chaparral – a comparison of laboratory data and model predictions in burning live fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Eunmo Koo; Xiangyang Zhou; Shankar Mahalingam; Frédéric Morandini; Jacques-Henri Balbi

    2016-01-01

    Fire behaviour data from 240 laboratory fires in high-density live chaparral fuel beds were compared with model predictions. Logistic regression was used to develop a model to predict fire spread success in the fuel beds and linear regression was used to predict rate of spread. Predictions from the Rothermel equation and three proposed changes as well as two physically...

  16. Predicting Fire-Regime Responses to Climate Change Over the Past Millennium: Implications of Paleodata-Model Comparisons for Future Projections of Fire Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, A. M.; Higuera, P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Duffy, P.; Hu, F.

    2016-12-01

    Statistical models of fire-climate relationships are an important tool for anticipating fire-regime responses to future climate change. An important limitation of this approach is the reliance on observations from recent decades. Understanding how well modern fire-climate relationships apply to periods outside of the observational record is thus critical for using these models to anticipate future fire activity. In previous work, we developed models that accurately predict the spatial distribution of fire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, using empirical relationships with summer temperature and annual moisture availability from 1950-2009. Here, we inform these models with downscaled global climate model (GCM) output for the past millennium (850-1850 CE), and compared predictions to reconstructed levels of fire activity derived from 25 paleoecological records in Alaska. Statistical models accurately predicted fire activity over the past millennium in boreal forests. Predicted mean fire return intervals (MFIs) ranged from 95-125 yrs, compared to 71-179 yrs in the paleo records (mean bias = 10 yrs). In contrast, statistical models significantly underestimated fire activity in the most flammable region of Alaskan tundra, predicting MFIs at least twice as long as those based on paleodata (mean bias = -712 yrs). This mismatch is due to at least two reasons. First, based on modern fire-climate relationships, this tundra region sits near a temperature threshold to burning, such that small changes in temperature result in large changes in predicted fire activity. Second, downscaled GCM-estimated temperatures are cooler than paleo-temperature estimates suggest, placing this tundra region below the temperature threshold to burning. Past-millennium GCM temperatures need to be increased by 1.0-1.5 °C for model predictions to agree with paleo-estimates of fire activity (mean bias = -35 yrs), comparable to differences between GCM and paleo-temperature estimates

  17. Large eddy simulation based fire modeling applications for Indian nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pavan K.; Markandeya, S.G.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: The Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are always designed for the highest level of safety against postulated accidents which may be initiated due to internal or external causes. One of the external/internal causes, which may lead to accident in the reactor and its associated systems, is fire in certain vital areas of the plant. Conventionally, the fire containment approach and/or the fire confinement approach is used in designing the fire protection systems of NPPs. Indian NPPs (PHWRs) follow the combined approach to ensure plant safety and all newly designed plants are required to comply with the provisions of Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) fire safety Guide. In respect of older plants, the reassessment of adequacy of fire safety provisions in the light of current advances has becomes essential so as to decide upon the steps for retrofitting. Keeping this in mind the deterministic fire hazard analysis was carried out for the Madras Atomic Power Station (MAPS). As a part of this exercise, detailed fire consequences analysis was required to be carried out for various critical areas. The choice of CFD based code was considered appropriate for these studies. A dedicated fire hazard analysis code Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) from NIST was used to perform these case studies. The code has option to use advanced fire models based on Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique/ Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) to model the fire-generated conditions. The LES option has been extensively used in the present studies which were primarily aimed at estimating the damage time for important safety related cable. Present paper describes the salient features of the methodology and important results for one of the most critical areas i.e. cable bridge area of MAPS. The typical dimensions of the cable bridge area are (length x breadth x height) of 12 m x 6 m x 2.5 m with an opening on one side of the cable bridge area. With almost equal gap, six numbers

  18. Estimation of time to rupture in a fire using 6FIRE, a lumped parameter UF6 cylinder transient heat transfer/stress analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, W.R.; Anderson, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The transportation of UF 6 is subject to regulations requiring the evaluation of packaging under a sequence of hypothetical accident conditions including exposure to a 30-min 800 degree C (1475 degree F) fire [10 CFR 71.73(c)(3)]. An issue of continuing interest is whether bare cylinders can withstand such a fire without rupturing. To address this issue, a lumped parameter heat transfer/stress analysis model (6FIRE) has been developed to simulate heating to the point of rupture of a cylinder containing UF 6 when it is exposed to a fire. The model is described, then estimates of time to rupture are presented for various cylinder types, fire temperatures, and fill conditions. An assessment of the quantity of UF 6 released from containment after rupture is also presented. Further documentation of the model is referenced

  19. Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities

  20. Modelling fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE – Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regime

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Yue, C

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling global burned area and fire regime C. Yue et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures J I J I Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion D iscussion P aper | D iscussion P aper | D... University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA 2377 GMDD 7, 2377–2427, 2014 Modelling global burned area and fire regime C. Yue et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures J I J I Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version...

  1. A spatial model for assessing forest fire danger in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alfonso Muñoz Robles

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to develop a model for assessing forest fire danger in a temperate forest located in the state of Nuevo León, Mexico. A spatial multicriteria analysis was conducted in order to integrate and evaluate in a Geographic Information System those variables that influence fire danger levels. The structure of the fire danger index included three components. The forest fuels component, generated through the inventory of dead surface fuels loads; the weather index, that was built trough the analysis of maximum monthly mean temperature and total monthly precipitation. The last component of the fire danger index was calculated by assessing social and economic features. The three components were integrated into a decision rule, and monthly maps were created to show the location of forest fire danger vulnerability.

  2. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modeling with WRF 3.3 and SFIRE 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mandel

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe the physical model, numerical algorithms, and software structure of a model consisting of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model, coupled with the fire-spread model (SFIRE module. In every time step, the fire model inputs the surface wind, which drives the fire, and outputs the heat flux from the fire into the atmosphere, which in turn influences the atmosphere. SFIRE is implemented by the level set method, which allows a submesh representation of the burning region and a flexible implementation of various kinds of ignition. The coupled model is capable of running on a cluster faster than real time even with fine resolution in dekameters. It is available as a part of the Open Wildland Fire Modeling (OpenWFM environment at http://openwfm.org, which contains also utilities for visualization, diagnostics, and data processing, including an extended version of the WRF Preprocessing System (WPS. The SFIRE code with a subset of the features is distributed with WRF 3.3 as WRF-Fire.

  3. Ontology driven modeling for the knowledge of genetic susceptibility to disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu; Sakamoto, Norihiro

    2009-04-30

    For the machine helped exploring the relationships between genetic factors and complex diseases, a well-structured conceptual framework of the background knowledge is needed. However, because of the complexity of determining a genetic susceptibility factor, there is no formalization for the knowledge of genetic susceptibility to disease, which makes the interoperability between systems impossible. Thus, the ontology modeling language OWL was used for formalization in this paper. After introducing the Semantic Web and OWL language propagated by W3C, we applied text mining technology combined with competency questions to specify the classes of the ontology. Then, an N-ary pattern was adopted to describe the relationships among these defined classes. Based on the former work of OGSF-DM (Ontology of Genetic Susceptibility Factors to Diabetes Mellitus), we formalized the definition of "Genetic Susceptibility", "Genetic Susceptibility Factor" and other classes by using OWL-DL modeling language; and a reasoner automatically performed the classification of the class "Genetic Susceptibility Factor". The ontology driven modeling is used for formalization the knowledge of genetic susceptibility to complex diseases. More importantly, when a class has been completely formalized in an ontology, the OWL reasoning can automatically compute the classification of the class, in our case, the class of "Genetic Susceptibility Factors". With more types of genetic susceptibility factors obtained from the laboratory research, our ontologies always needs to be refined, and many new classes must be taken into account to harmonize with the ontologies. Using the ontologies to develop the semantic web needs to be applied in the future.

  4. Modeling Fire Emissions from Multiple Land Use Transitions in Southern Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, D. C.; van der Werf, G. R.; Defries, R. S.; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2008-12-01

    Fires for deforestation and other land cover changes in southern Amazonia are an uncertain but significant source of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Recent expansion of mechanized cropland in the region has increased the rates, clearing sizes, and combustion completeness of forest and Cerrado conversion compared to previous deforestation for cattle ranching. To more accurately quantify the influence of agricultural intensification on carbon emissions, we developed a high-resolution (250 m) model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF). DECAF estimates variations in forest and Cerrado biomass based on time series of MODIS NDVI and explicitly tracks the duration and combustion completeness of new deforestation as a function of post-clearing vegetation phenology and MODIS-based fire frequency. In our model runs for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, we quantified the contribution of fires for deforestation, conversion of pasture and Cerrado to mechanized cropland, and pasture maintenance to total fire emissions under low, middle, and high emissions scenarios. During 2001-2005, carbon losses from all types of deforestation were 48-82 Tg per year (mean = 67 Tg C), representing approximately 74% of annual fire emissions in the study region. Cropland expansion in non-forest areas contributed 19% of estimated fire emissions, while maintenance fires in pasture and Cerrado land cover types averaged 7% of all fire emissions during 2001-2005. Conversion of forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. In total, DECAF-based emissions for Mato Grosso represent 1/3 of estimated fire emissions for all of southern hemisphere South America during this period. Our results demonstrate how DECAF can be used to model

  5. A deterministric and probabilistric model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, B.

    1988-03-01

    A deterministic and probabilistic model for oilspill fires in nuclear power plant compartments has been developed. It's objective is to predict whether certain components in the compartment will cease to function as a result of the fire and to give the probability of failure. Results are presented for several scenarios in two compartments. The model has been implimented in the computer code OSFIC, a tool for safety engineers to compare various component configurations in different compartments. (author)

  6. Phasic firing in vasopressin cells: understanding its functional significance through computational models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duncan J MacGregor

    Full Text Available Vasopressin neurons, responding to input generated by osmotic pressure, use an intrinsic mechanism to shift from slow irregular firing to a distinct phasic pattern, consisting of long bursts and silences lasting tens of seconds. With increased input, bursts lengthen, eventually shifting to continuous firing. The phasic activity remains asynchronous across the cells and is not reflected in the population output signal. Here we have used a computational vasopressin neuron model to investigate the functional significance of the phasic firing pattern. We generated a concise model of the synaptic input driven spike firing mechanism that gives a close quantitative match to vasopressin neuron spike activity recorded in vivo, tested against endogenous activity and experimental interventions. The integrate-and-fire based model provides a simple physiological explanation of the phasic firing mechanism involving an activity-dependent slow depolarising afterpotential (DAP generated by a calcium-inactivated potassium leak current. This is modulated by the slower, opposing, action of activity-dependent dendritic dynorphin release, which inactivates the DAP, the opposing effects generating successive periods of bursting and silence. Model cells are not spontaneously active, but fire when perturbed by random perturbations mimicking synaptic input. We constructed one population of such phasic neurons, and another population of similar cells but which lacked the ability to fire phasically. We then studied how these two populations differed in the way that they encoded changes in afferent inputs. By comparison with the non-phasic population, the phasic population responds linearly to increases in tonic synaptic input. Non-phasic cells respond to transient elevations in synaptic input in a way that strongly depends on background activity levels, phasic cells in a way that is independent of background levels, and show a similar strong linearization of the response

  7. Fire Patterns and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    The West African tropical forest (referred to as the Upper Guinean forest, UGF), is a global biodiversity hotspot providing vital ecosystem services for the region's socio-economic and environmental wellbeing. It is also one of the most fragmented and human-modified tropical forest ecosystems, with the only remaining large patches of original forests contained in protected areas. However, these remnant forests are susceptible to continued fire-mediated degradation and forest loss due to intense climatic, demographic and land use pressures. We analyzed human and climatic drivers of fire activity in the sub-region to better understand the spatial and temporal patterns of these risks. We utilized MODIS active fire and burned area products to identify fire activity within the sub-region. We measured climatic variability using TRMM rainfall data and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We used a boosted regression trees model to determine the influences of predictor variables on fire activity. Our analyses indicated that the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is a key driving factor of fire activity in the UGF. Anthropogenic effects on fire activity in the area were evident through the influences of agriculture and low-density populations. These human footprints in the landscape make forests more susceptible to fires through forest fragmentation, degradation, and fire spread from agricultural areas. Forested protected areas within the forest savanna mosaic experienced frequent fires, whereas the more humid forest areas located in the south and south-western portions of the study area had fewer fires as these rainforests tend to offer some buffering against fire encroachment. These results improve characterization of UGF fire regime and expand our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in response to human and climatic pressures.

  8. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  9. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  10. Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

    2016-12-01

    Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

  11. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

    2009-01-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

  12. Simulated western spruce budworm defoliation reduces torching and crowning potential: A sensitivity analysis using a physics-based fire model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory M. Cohn; Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Daniel G. Gavin; Aquila Flower

    2014-01-01

    The widespread, native defoliator western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) reduces canopy fuels, which might affect the potential for surface fires to torch (ignite the crowns of individual trees) or crown (spread between tree crowns). However, the effects of defoliation on fire behaviour are poorly understood. We used a physics-based fire model to...

  13. A better understanding of biomass co-firing by developing an advanced non-spherical particle tracking model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    Co-firing biomass with coal or gas in the existing units has gained increasing interest in the recent past to increase the production of environmentally friendly, renewable green power. In this paper, co-firing biomass with natural gas in a 10m long wall-fired burner model is studied numerically....

  14. Exergetic Modelling of Oil-Fired Steam Boilers | Ohijeagbon ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The performance variables and potential for energy savings in oil-fired industrial steam boilers were studied. Operational parameters of steam boilers using low pour fuel oil (LPFO) and diesel were used to determine thermodynamic properties of material streams and exergetic parameters. Analysis of thermodynamic ...

  15. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  16. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    monitoring methods because ofits repetitive andconsistent coverage over large areas of land (Martin et al., 1999). .... situations however, precipitation does not follow this rule. A similar use of elevation factor for forest fire estimation .... point in the formulation of an emergency plan. In carrying out the risk assessment it will be ...

  17. A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu Wei; Michael Bevers; Dung Nguyen; Erin Belval

    2014-01-01

    Previous stochastic models in harvest scheduling seldom address explicit spatial management concerns under the influence of natural disturbances. We employ multistage stochastic programming models to explore the challenges and advantages of building spatial optimization models that account for the influences of random stand-replacing fires. Our exploratory test models...

  18. Modeling moisture content of fine dead wildland fuels: Input to the BEHAVE fire prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard C. Rothermel; Ralph A. Wilson; Glen A. Morris; Stephen S. Sackett

    1986-01-01

    Describes a model for predicting moisture content of fine fuels for use with the BEHAVE fire behavior and fuel modeling system. The model is intended to meet the need for more accurate predictions of fine fuel moisture, particularly in northern conifer stands and on days following rain. The model is based on the Canadian Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), modified to...

  19. Field validation of a free-agent cellular automata model of fire spread with fire–atmosphere coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary Achtemeier

    2012-01-01

    A cellular automata fire model represents ‘elements’ of fire by autonomous agents. A few simple algebraic expressions substituted for complex physical and meteorological processes and solved iteratively yield simulations for ‘super-diffusive’ fire spread and coupled surface-layer (2-m) fire–atmosphere processes. Pressure anomalies, which are integrals of the thermal...

  20. Consequence modeling of fire on Methane storage tanks in a gas refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Shahedi ali abadi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: using fossil fuels, some hazards such as explosion and fire are probable. This study was aimed to consequence modeling of fire on Methane storage tanks in a gas refinery using analyzing the risk, and modeling and evaluating the related consequences. Method: Hazard analysis by PHA was used to choosing the worst-case scenario. Then, causes of the scenario were determined by FTA. After that, consequence modeling by the PHAST software was applied for the consequence analysis. Results: Based on some criteria, the fire of methane gas tank (V-100 was selected as the worst-case scenario at the refinery. The qualitative fault tree showed three factors including mechanical, process, and human failures contribute in gas leakage. The leakage size and weather conditions were effective on the distance of radiation. Using consequence modeling, thermal radiation was considered as the major outcome of the incident. Finally, for outcome evaluating, probit equations were used to quantify losses and the percentage of fatalities due to the methane gas leakage and fire occurrence. The maximum number of fatalities caused by fire was obtained 23 persons. Conclusions: In conclusion, the methane gas vessel in the refinery can be considered as the main center of hazard, therefore the implementation of the safety rules, eliminating mechanical failures, personal protection and education, and Effective measures to prevent and fighting of fire are proposed for decreasing the probable losses and fatalities.

  1. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbero, R; Abatzoglou, J T; Steel, E A; K Larkin, Narasimhan

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. (letter)

  2. Candidate hippocampal biomarkers of susceptibility and resilience to stress in a rat model of depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Kim; Palmfeldt, Johan; Christiansen, Sofie Friis

    2012-01-01

    Susceptibility to stress plays a crucial role in the development of psychiatric disorders such as unipolar depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. In the present study the chronic mild stress rat model of depression was used to reveal stress-susceptible and stress-resilient rats. Large......-scale proteomics was used to map hippocampal protein alterations in different stress states. Membrane proteins were successfully captured by two-phase separation and peptide based proteomics. Using iTRAQ labeling coupled with mass spectrometry, more than 2000 proteins were quantified and 73 proteins were found...... to be differentially expressed. Stress susceptibility was associated with increased expression of a sodium-channel protein (SCN9A) currently investigated as a potential antidepressant target. Differential protein profiling also indicated stress susceptibility to be associated with deficits in synaptic vesicle release...

  3. Deforestation fire carbon emissions for the last millennium simulated with the global vegetation model JSBACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engels, Jessica; Kloster, Silvia; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig

    2013-04-01

    Humankind has fundamentally modified the Earth's terrestrial surface to secure food and other resources by conversion of natural ecosystems to managed areas. Until today, these anthropogenic changes in land cover have resulted in an extent of conversion from natural land cover by human activities to managed areas between one-third and one-half of the total Earth's land cover (Vitousek (1997)). Large parts of this conversion take place in the form of deforestation fires, which release atmospheric trace gases and aerosols into the atmosphere. These deforestation fires are climate dependent and follow a strong seasonal cycle, which is important for atmospheric chemistry. In the present study, the offline version of the JSBACH carbon pool model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) is used to simulate climate dependent deforestation fire carbon emissions over the last millennium (800-2010). For this, the standard carbon allocation scheme is extended by four additional anthropogenic carbon pools. These pools separate the carbon amount released due to anthropogenic land cover change from the carbon amount released due to natural processes to the atmosphere. The climate dependent deforestation fire emissions are simulated in the model by a linear dependency on the soil moisture. This new carbon allocation scheme results in land cover change carbon emissions, which accumulate between 800 and 2010 to 239.8 PgC. Thereby, the climate dependent deforestation fire carbon emissions accumulate over the last millennium to 182.6 PgC yr-1 in the year 2010, which accounts for 76% of the total land cover change carbon emissions. Compared to present day satellite based observational data sets (GFED3) the simulated mean deforestation fire carbon emissions (1422.5 TgC yr-1) averaged over the time period 1997-2009 are about a factor of 4 higher than the observed carbon emissions (386.4 TgC yr-1) on a global scale. However, compared to a field-observational based estimate

  4. The simulation of surface fire spread based on Rothermel model in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain (Jilin, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Hang; Jin, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Fan, Yuguang; Qin, Liwu; Chen, Qinghong; Huang, Liya; Jia, Xiang; Liu, Lijie; Dai, Yuhong; Xiao, Ying

    2018-03-01

    The forest-fire not only brings great loss to natural resources, but also destructs the ecosystem and reduces the soil fertility, causing some natural disasters as soil erosion and debris flow. However, due to the lack of the prognosis for forest fire spreading trend in forest fire fighting, it is difficult to formulate rational and effective fire-fighting scheme. In the event of forest fire, achieving accurate judgment to the fire behavior would greatly improve the fire-fighting efficiency, and reduce heavy losses caused by fire. Researches on forest fire spread simulation can effectively reduce the loss of disasters. The present study focused on the simulation of "29 May 2012" wildfire in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Basic data were retrieved from the "29 May 2012" wildfire and field survey. A self-development forest fire behavior simulated program based on Rothermel Model was used in the simulation. Kappa coefficient and Sørensen index were employed to evaluate the simulation accuracy. The results showed that: The perimeter of simulated burned area was 4.66 km, the area was 56.47 hm2 and the overlapped burned area was 33.68 hm2, and the estimated rate of fire spread was 0.259 m/s. Between the simulated fire and actual fire, the Kappa coefficient was 0.7398 and the Sørensen co-efficient was 0.7419. This proved the application of Rothermel model to conduct fire behavior simulation in windthrow meadow was feasible. It can achieve the goal of forecasting for the spread behavior in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Thus, our self-development program based on the Rothermel model can provide a effective forecast of fire spread, which will facilitate the fire suppression work.

  5. REFINING FIRE EMISSIONS FOR AIR QUALITY MODELING WITH REMOTELY-SENSED FIRE COUNTS: A WILDFIRE CASE STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper examines the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed active fire data (pixel counts) to refine the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) fire emission estimates for major wildfire events. This study was motivated by the extremely limited info...

  6. Generalization of landslide susceptibility models in geologic-geomorphologic similar context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piedade, Aldina; Zêzere, José Luis; António Tenedório, José; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Rocha, Jorge

    2010-05-01

    The region north of Lisbon, which is known by several forms of slope instability, is the study area of this study. Two sample areas were chosen having similar geological and geomorphological conditions to assess susceptibility regarding shallow translational slides occurrence. Landslide susceptibility was assessed using a bivariate statistical method (Information Value Method) and the developed methodology focuses on the exportation of susceptibility scores obtained in a sample area (modelling area of Fanhões-Trancão) to other area (validation area of Lousa-Loures) having similar geological and geomorphological features. The rationale is that similar environments should have identical landslide susceptibility, i.e., the same causes are likely to generate the same effects. Thus, scores of Information Value obtained in the modelling area of Fanhões-Trancão (20 km2) are used to evaluate the susceptibility in the validation area of Lousa-Loures (17 km2). The susceptibility scores were obtained for the modelling area by crossing the landslide layer (the dependent variable) with a set of 7 classified predisposing factors for slope instability (assumed as independent variables): slope, aspect, transverse slope profile, lithology, geomorphology, superficial deposits and land use. The same set of landslide predisposing factors was prepared for the validation area and we use the same criteria to define classes within each theme. Field work and aerial-photo interpretation were performed in the validation area and a landslide database was constructed and subsequently used to validate the landslide susceptibility model. In addition, new scores of Information Value were calculated for the validation area by crossing existing shallow translational slides with the predisposing factors of slope instability. Validation of predictive models is carried out by comparison of success-rate and prediction-rate curves. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of the variables is performed in

  7. Convective effects in a regulatory and proposed fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wix, S.D.; Hohnstreiter, G.F.

    1995-01-01

    Radiation is the dominant mode of heat transfer in large fires. However, convection can be as much as 10 to 20 percent of the total heat transfer to an object in a large fire. The current radioactive material transportation packaging regulations include convection as a mode of heat transfer in the accident condition scenario. The current International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Series 6 packaging regulation states ''the convection coefficient shall be that value which the designer can justify if the package were exposed to the specified fire''. The current Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 71 (10CFR71) packaging regulation states ''when significant, convection heat input must be included on the basis of still, ambient air at 800 degrees C (1475 degrees F)''. Two questions that can arise in an analysts mind from an examination of the packaging regulations is whether convection is significant and whether convection should be included in the design analysis of a radioactive materials transportation container. The objective of this study is to examine the convective effects on an actual radioactive materials transportation package using a regulatory and a proposed thermal boundary condition

  8. Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Hollis; S. Matthews; Roger Ottmar; S.J. Prichard; S. Slijepcevic; N.D. Burrows; B. Ward; K.G. Tolhurst; W.R. Anderson; J S. Gould

    2010-01-01

    Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National...

  9. Crown Fire Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Crown fire potential was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The...

  10. Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Formetta

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced shallow landslides can lead to loss of life and significant damage to private and public properties, transportation systems, etc. Predicting locations that might be susceptible to shallow landslides is a complex task and involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, and statistics. Two main approaches are commonly used: statistical or physically based models. Reliable model applications involve automatic parameter calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, and model sensitivity analyses. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify, and compare different models and model performance indicators in order to identify and select the models whose behavior is the most reliable for particular case studies.The procedure was implemented in a package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3 and a component for model verification. It computes eight goodness-of-fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurement data. The integration of the package in NewAge-JGrass uses other components, such as geographic information system tools, to manage input–output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy along the Salerno–Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia. The area is extensively subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides mainly because of its complex geology and climatology. The analysis was carried out considering all the combinations of the eight optimized indices and the three models. Parameter calibration, verification, and model performance assessment were performed by a comparison with a detailed landslide

  11. Engineering model for intumescent coating behavior in a pilot-scale gas-fired furnace

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Kristian Petersen; Dam-Johansen, Kim; Català, Pere

    2016-01-01

    In the event of a fire, intumescent fire protective coatings expand and form a thermally insulating char that protects the underlying substrate from heat and subsequent structural failure. The intumescence includes several rate phenomena, which have been investigated and quantified in the literat......In the event of a fire, intumescent fire protective coatings expand and form a thermally insulating char that protects the underlying substrate from heat and subsequent structural failure. The intumescence includes several rate phenomena, which have been investigated and quantified...... and adjustable model parameters for a given coating, thereby providing models for industrial applications. In this work, these two challenges are addressed. Three experimental series, with an intumescent coating inside a 0.65 m3 gas-fired furnace, heating up according to so-called cellulosic fire conditions......, were conducted and a very good repeatability was evident. The experiments were run for almost three hours, reaching a final gas temperature of about 1100 °C. Measurements include transient temperature developments inside the expanding char, at the steel substrate, and in the mineral wool insulation...

  12. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  13. [Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

  14. Modeling landslide susceptibility in data-scarce environments using optimized data mining and statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Hyun; Sameen, Maher Ibrahim; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Park, Hyuck-Jin

    2018-02-01

    This study evaluated the generalizability of five models to select a suitable approach for landslide susceptibility modeling in data-scarce environments. In total, 418 landslide inventories and 18 landslide conditioning factors were analyzed. Multicollinearity and factor optimization were investigated before data modeling, and two experiments were then conducted. In each experiment, five susceptibility maps were produced based on support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), weight-of-evidence (WoE), ridge regression (Rid_R), and robust regression (RR) models. The highest accuracy (AUC = 0.85) was achieved with the SVM model when either the full or limited landslide inventories were used. Furthermore, the RF and WoE models were severely affected when less landslide samples were used for training. The other models were affected slightly when the training samples were limited.

  15. Developing an Accessible Landslide Susceptibility Model Using Open-Source Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyungjin An

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide susceptibility models are important for public safety, but often rely on inaccessible or unaffordable software and geospatial data. Thus, affordable and accessible landslide prediction systems would be especially useful in places that lack the infrastructure for acquiring and analyzing geospatial data. Current landslide susceptibility models and existing methodologies do not consider such issues; therefore, this study aimed to develop an accessible and affordable landslide susceptibility modeling application and methodology based on open-source software and geospatial data. This model used TRIGRS (asc format and QGIS (Digital Elevation Models (DEMs extracted from GeoTIFF format with widely accessible environmental parameters to identify potential landslide risks. In order to verify the suitability of the proposed application and methodology, a case study was conducted on Lantau Island, Hong Kong to assess the validity of the results, a comparison with 1999 landslide locations. The application developed in this study showed a good agreement with the four previous landslide locations marked as highly susceptible, which proves the validity of the study. Therefore, the developing model and the cost-effective approach, in this study simulated the landslide performance well and suggested the new approach of the landslide prediction system.

  16. Application of Different HSI Color Models to Detect Fire-Damaged Mortar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To obtain a better understanding of the effect of vehicle fires on rigid pavement, a nondestructive test method utilizing an ordinary digital camera to capture images of mortar at five elevated temperatures was undertaken. These images were then analyzed by “image color-intensity analyzer” software. In image analysis, the RGB color model was the basic system used to represent the color information of images. HSI is a derived-color model that is transformed from an RGB model by formulae. In order to understand more about surface color changes and temperatures after a vehicle fire, various transformation formulae used in different research areas were applied in this study. They were then evaluated to obtain the optimum HSI model for further studies of fire-damaged mortar through the use of image analysis.

  17. Numerical prediction of heat-flux to massive calorimeters engulfed in regulatory fires with the cask analysis fire environment (CAFE) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koski, Jorman A.; Suo-Antitla, Ahti; Kramer M, Alex; Greiner, Miles

    2000-01-01

    Recent observations show that the thermal boundary conditions within large-scale fires are significantly affected by the presence of thermally massive objects. These objects cool the soot and gas near their surfaces, and these effects reduce the incoming radiant heat-flux to values lower than the levels expected from simple σT fire 4 models. They also affect the flow and temperature fields in the fire far from their surfaces. The Cask Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories to provide an enhanced fire boundary condition for the design of radioactive material packages. CAFE is a set of computer subroutines that use computational fluid mechanics methods to predict convective heat transfer and mixing. It also includes models for fuel and oxygen transport, chemical reaction, and participating-media radiation heat transfer. This code uses two-dimensional computational models so that it has reasonably short turnaround times on standard workstations and is well suited for design and risk studies. In this paper, CAFE is coupled with a commercial finite-element program to model a large cylindrical calorimeter fully engulfed in a pool fire. The time-dependent heat-flux to the calorimeter and the calorimeter surface temperature are determined for several locations around the calorimeter circumference. The variation of heat-flux with location is determined for calorimeters with different diameters and wall thickness, and the observed effects discussed

  18. Uncertainty into statistical landslide susceptibility models resulting from terrain mapping units and landslide input data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zêzere, José Luis; Pereira, Susana; Melo, Raquel; Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo

    2017-04-01

    There are multiple sources of uncertainty within statistically-based landslide susceptibility assessment that needs to be accounted and monitored. In this work we evaluate and discuss differences observed on landslide susceptibility maps resulting from the selection of the terrain mapping unit and the selection of the feature type to represent landslides (polygon vs point). The work is performed in the Silveira Basin (18.2 square kilometres) located north of Lisbon, Portugal, using a unique database of geo-environmental landslide predisposing factors and an inventory of 81 shallow translational slides. The Logistic Regression is the statistical method selected to combine the predictive factors with the dependent variable. Four landslide susceptibility models were computed using the complete landslide inventory and considering the total landslide area over four different terrain mapping units: Slope Terrain Units (STU), Geo-Hydrological Terrain Units (GHTU), Census Terrain Units (CTU) and Grid Cell Terrain Units (GCTU). Four additional landslide susceptibility models were made over the same four terrain mapping units using a landslide training group (50% of the inventory randomly selected). These models were independently validated with the other 50% of the landslide inventory (landslide test group). Lastly, two additional landslide susceptibility models were computed over GCTU, one using the landslide training group represented as point features corresponding to the centroid of landslide, and other using the centroid of landslide rupture zone. In total, 10 landslide susceptibility maps were constructed and classified in 10 classes of equal number of terrain units to allow comparison. The evaluation of the prediction skills of susceptibility models was made using ROC metrics and Success and Prediction rate curves. Lastly, the landslide susceptibility maps computed over GCTU were compared using the Kappa statistics. With this work we conclude that large differences

  19. Bed models for solid fuel conversion process in grate-fired boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, M.; Massarotti, N.; Indrizzi, V.

    2013-01-01

    Because of the complexity to describe and solve thermo-chemical processes occurring in a fuel bed in grate-fired boiler, it is often necessary to simplify the process and use modeling techniques based on overall mass, energy and species conservation. A comparison between two numerical models...... to describe the thermo-chemical conversion process of a solid fuel bed in a grate-fired boiler is presented. In this work both models consider the incoming solid fuel as subjected to drying, pyrolysis, gasification and combustion. In the first approach the biomass bed is treated as a 0D system, but the thermo...

  20. Towards a CFD-based mechanistic deposit formation model for straw-fired boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kær, Søren Knudsen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Baxter, L.L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the application of FLUENTe in the analysis of grate-fired biomass boilers. A short description of the concept used to model fuel conversion on the grate and the coupling to the CFD code is offered. The development and implementation of a CFD-based deposition model is presented...... resistance changes. The model is applied to the straw-fired Masnedø boiler. Results are in good qualitative agreement with both measurements and observations at the plants. q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  1. Modeling the Emission of CO from Wood Fires using Detailed Chemical Kinetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dederichs, Anne

    Carbon monoxide is treated as one of the most common and dangerous of gases evolving in fires. Modeling the formation of the toxic gas CO from in fire enclosures using detailed chemical kinetics is the topic of this manuscript. A semi-empirical model is developed to study the formation of CO from...... birch wood using detailed chemical kinetics on the combustion of pyrolysis gas from birch wood. The composition of the pyrolysis gas is taken from the experiment by Zanzi and coworkers. The numerical model applies a counter flow configuration involving 84 chemical species and 804 reactions. Hence...

  2. Model cerebellar granule cells can faithfully transmit modulated firing rate signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eRössert

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A crucial assumption of many high-level system models of the cerebellum is that information in the granular layer is encoded in a linear manner. However, granule cells are known for their non-linear and resonant synaptic and intrinsic properties that could potentially impede linear signal transmission.In this modelling study we analyse how electrophysiological granule cell properties and spike sampling influence information coded by firing rate modulation, assuming no signal-related, i.e. uncorrelated inhibitory feedback (open-loop mode.A detailed one-compartment granule cell model was excited in simulation by either direct current or mossy-fibre synaptic inputs. Vestibular signals were represented as tonic inputs to the flocculus modulated at frequencies up to 20 Hz (approximate upper frequency limit of vestibular-ocular reflex, VOR. Model outputs were assessed using estimates of both the transfer function, and the fidelity of input-signal reconstruction measured as variance-accounted-for.The detailed granule cell model with realistic mossy-fibre synaptic inputs could transmit information faithfully and linearly in the frequency range of the vestibular-ocular reflex. This was achieved most simply if the model neurons had a firing rate at least twice the highest required frequency of modulation, but lower rates were also adequate provided a population of neurons was utilized, especially in combination with push-pull coding. The exact number of neurons required for faithful transmission depended on the precise values of firing rate and noise. The model neurons were also able to combine excitatory and inhibitory signals linearly, and could be replaced by a simpler (modified integrate-and-fire neuron in the case of high tonic firing rates.These findings suggest that granule cells can in principle code modulated firing-rate inputs in a linear manner, and are thus consistent with the high-level adaptive-filter model of the cerebellar microcircuit.

  3. Finite-size behaviour of generalized susceptibilities in the whole phase plane of the Potts model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xue; Zhang, Yanhua; Chen, Lizhu; Xu, Mingmei; Wu, Yuanfang

    2018-01-01

    We study the sign distribution of generalized magnetic susceptibilities in the temperature-external magnetic field plane using the three-dimensional three-state Potts model. We find that the sign of odd-order susceptibility is opposite in the symmetric (disorder) and broken (order) phases, but that of the even-order one remains positive when it is far away from the phase boundary. When the critical point is approached from the crossover side, negative fourth-order magnetic susceptibility is observable. It is also demonstrated that non-monotonic behavior occurs in the temperature dependence of the generalized susceptibilities of the energy. The finite-size scaling behavior of the specific heat in this model is mainly controlled by the critical exponent of the magnetic susceptibility in the three-dimensional Ising universality class. Supported by Fund Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (11647093, 11405088, 11521064), Fund Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education (16ZB0339), Fund Project of Chengdu Technological University (2016RC004) and the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402)

  4. Predictive modeling of gingivitis severity and susceptibility via oral microbiota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shi; Li, Rui; Zeng, Xiaowei; He, Tao; Zhao, Helen; Chang, Alice; Bo, Cunpei; Chen, Jie; Yang, Fang; Knight, Rob; Liu, Jiquan; Davis, Catherine; Xu, Jian

    2014-09-01

    Predictive modeling of human disease based on the microbiota holds great potential yet remains challenging. Here, 50 adults underwent controlled transitions from naturally occurring gingivitis, to healthy gingivae (baseline), and to experimental gingivitis (EG). In diseased plaque microbiota, 27 bacterial genera changed in relative abundance and functional genes including 33 flagellar biosynthesis-related groups were enriched. Plaque microbiota structure exhibited a continuous gradient along the first principal component, reflecting transition from healthy to diseased states, which correlated with Mazza Gingival Index. We identified two host types with distinct gingivitis sensitivity. Our proposed microbial indices of gingivitis classified host types with 74% reliability, and, when tested on another 41-member cohort, distinguished healthy from diseased individuals with 95% accuracy. Furthermore, the state of the microbiota in naturally occurring gingivitis predicted the microbiota state and severity of subsequent EG (but not the state of the microbiota during the healthy baseline period). Because the effect of disease is greater than interpersonal variation in plaque, in contrast to the gut, plaque microbiota may provide advantages in predictive modeling of oral diseases.

  5. Numerical modelling of a straw-fired grate boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a 33 MW straw-fired grate boiler. Combustion on the grate plays akey-role in the analysis of these boilers and in this work a stand-alone code was used to provide inlet conditions for the CFD analysis. Modelpredictions were...... compared with available gas temperature and species concentration measurements showing good agreement. Combustionof biomass in grate-based boilers is often associated with high emission levels and relatively high amounts of unburnt carbon in the fly ash.Based on the CFD analysis, it is suggested that poor...

  6. Mapping regional forest fire probability using artificial neural network model in a Mediterranean forest ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur Satir

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires are one of the most important factors in environmental risk assessment and it is the main cause of forest destruction in the Mediterranean region. Forestlands have a number of known benefits such as decreasing soil erosion, containing wild life habitats, etc. Additionally, forests are also important player in carbon cycle and decreasing the climate change impacts. This paper discusses forest fire probability mapping of a Mediterranean forestland using a multiple data assessment technique. An artificial neural network (ANN method was used to map forest fire probability in Upper Seyhan Basin (USB in Turkey. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP approach based on back propagation algorithm was applied in respect to physical, anthropogenic, climate and fire occurrence datasets. Result was validated using relative operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Coefficient of accuracy of the MLP was 0.83. Landscape features input to the model were assessed statistically to identify the most descriptive factors on forest fire probability mapping using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Landscape features like elevation (R = −0.43, tree cover (R = 0.93 and temperature (R = 0.42 were strongly correlated with forest fire probability in the USB region.

  7. The Habitat Susceptibility of Bali Starling (Leucopsar rothschildi Stresemann> 1912) Based on Forest Fire Vulnerability Mappin in West Bali National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramatana, F.; Prasetyo, L. B.; Rushayati, S. B.

    2017-10-01

    Bali starling is an endemic and endangered species which tend to decrease of its population in the wild. West Bali National Park (WBNP) is the only habitat of bali starling, however it is threatened nowadays by forest fire. Understanding the sensitivity of habitat to forest & land fire is urgently needed. Geographic Information System (GIS) can be used for mapping the vulnerability of forest fire. This study aims to analyze the contributed factor of forest fire, to develop vulnerability level map of forest fire in WBNP, to estimate habitat vulnerability of bali starling. The variable for mapping forest fire in WBNP were road distance, village distance, land cover, NDVI, NDMI, surface temperature, and slope. Forest fire map in WBNP was created by scoring from each variable, and classified into four classes of forest fire vulnerability which are very low (9 821 ha), low (5 015.718 ha), middle (6 778.656 ha), and high (2 126.006 ha). Bali starling existence in the middle and high vulnerability forest fire class in WBNP, consequently the population and habitat of bali starling is a very vulnerable. Management of population and habitat of bali starling in WBNP must be implemented focus on forest fire impact.

  8. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for comparison of single-neuron firing intensities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottas, Athanasios; Behseta, Sam

    2010-03-01

    We propose a fully inferential model-based approach to the problem of comparing the firing patterns of a neuron recorded under two distinct experimental conditions. The methodology is based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process models for the firing times of each condition with flexible nonparametric mixture prior models for the corresponding intensity functions. We demonstrate posterior inferences from a global analysis, which may be used to compare the two conditions over the entire experimental time window, as well as from a pointwise analysis at selected time points to detect local deviations of firing patterns from one condition to another. We apply our method on two neurons recorded from the primary motor cortex area of a monkey's brain while performing a sequence of reaching tasks.

  9. Physical characteristics of shrub and conifer fuels for fire behavior models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan R. Gallacher; Thomas H. Fletcher; Victoria Lansinger; Sydney Hansen; Taylor Ellsworth; David R. Weise

    2017-01-01

    The physical properties and dimensions of foliage are necessary inputs for some fire spread models. Currently, almost no data exist on these plant characteristics to fill this need. In this report, we measured the physical properties and dimensions of the foliage from 10 live shrub and conifer fuels throughout a 1-year period. We developed models to predict relative...

  10. Surface fire effects on conifer and hardwood crowns--applications of an integral plume model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Dickinson; Anthony Bova; Kathleen Kavanagh; Antoine Randolph; Lawrence Band

    2009-01-01

    An integral plume model was applied to the problems of tree death from canopy injury in dormant-season hardwoods and branch embolism in Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) crowns. Our purpose was to generate testable hypotheses. We used the integral plume models to relate crown injury to bole injury and to explore the effects of variation in fire...

  11. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system--FUEL subsystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Burgan; Richard C. Rothermel

    1984-01-01

    This manual documents the fuel modeling procedures of BEHAVE--a state-of-the-art wildland fire behavior prediction system. Described are procedures for collecting fuel data, using the data with the program, and testing and adjusting the fuel model.

  12. Engineering bed models for solid fuel conversion process in grate-fired boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, M.; Massarotti, N.; Indrizzi, V.

    2014-01-01

    A comparison between two numerical models describing the thermo-chemical conversion process of a solid fuel bed in a grate-fired boiler is presented. Both models consider the incoming biomass as subjected to drying, pyrolysis, gasification and combustion. In the first approach the biomass bed...

  13. Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...

  14. Modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching at Fire Island (NY) during hurricane Sandy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vet, P.L.M.; McCall, R.T.; Den Bieman, J.P.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ormondt, M.

    2015-01-01

    In 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused a breach at Fire Island (NY, USA), near Pelican Island. This paper aims at modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching processes that occured during the hurricane event at this stretch of coast with the numerical model XBeach. By using the default settings, the

  15. Challenges and needs in fire management: A landscape simulation modeling perspective [chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan

    2011-01-01

    Fire management will face many challenges in the future from global climate change to protecting people, communities, and values at risk. Simulation modeling will be a vital tool for addressing these challenges but the next generation of simulation models must be spatially explicit to address critical landscape ecology relationships and they must use mechanistic...

  16. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi

    2017-06-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.

  17. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

    2017-01-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEII h R) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEII h R model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEII h R model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEII h R model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEII h R model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEII h R model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point ( S e ; E e ; I e ; I he ; R e )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable. (paper)

  18. Susceptibility of the Potts model in an hierarchical lattice: renormalisation group approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, E. de P. da; Tsallis, C.

    1989-01-01

    Using a real space renormalization group method, the thermal dependence of the susceptibility of the q-state Potts model (ferro-and antiferromagnet) on self-dual Wheatstone-bridge-like hierarchical lattices is calculated. The influence of external fields on the antiferromagnetic phase diagram is discussed as well. (author) [pt

  19. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility

    KAUST Repository

    Korobeinikov, Andrei

    2013-01-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  20. Fire science at LLNL: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, H.K. (ed.)

    1990-03-01

    This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)

  1. Quantifications and Modeling of Human Failure Events in a Fire PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2014-01-01

    USNRC and EPRI developed guidance, 'Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines, NUREG-1921', for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs) for HFEs under fire conditions. NUREG-1921 classifies HFEs into four types associated with the following human actions: - Type 1: New and existing Main Control Room (MCR) actions - Type 2: New and existing ex-MCR actions - Type 3: Actions associated with using alternate shutdown means (ASD) - Type 4: Actions relating to the error of commissions (EOCs) or error of omissions (EOOs) as a result of incorrect indications (SPI) In this paper, approaches for the quantifications and modeling of HFEs related to Type 1, 2 and 3 human actions are introduced. This paper introduced the human reliability analysis process for a fire PSA of Hanul Unit 3. A multiplier of 10 was used to re-estimate the HEPs for the preexisting internal human actions. The HEPs for all ex- MCR actions were assumed to be one. New MCR human actions were quantified using the scoping analysis method of NUREG-1921. If the quantified human action were identified to be risk-significant, detailed approaches (modeling and quantification) were used for incorporating fire situations into them. Multiple HFEs for single human action were defined and they were separately and were separately quantified to incorporate the specific fire situations into them. From this study, we can confirm that the modeling as well as quantifications of human actions is very important to appropriately treat them in PSA logic structures

  2. Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.

    Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar

  3. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-11-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  4. Fidelity susceptibility and long-range correlation in the Kitaev honeycomb model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shuo; Gu, Shi-Jian; Sun, Chang-Pu; Lin, Hai-Qing

    2008-07-01

    We study exactly both the ground-state fidelity susceptibility and bond-bond correlation function in the Kitaev honeycomb model. Our results show that the fidelity susceptibility can be used to identify the topological phase transition from a gapped A phase with Abelian anyon excitations to a gapless B phase with non-Abelian anyon excitations. We also find that the bond-bond correlation function decays exponentially in the gapped phase, but algebraically in the gapless phase. For the former case, the correlation length is found to be 1/ξ=2sinh-1[2Jz-1/(1-Jz)] , which diverges around the critical point Jz=(1/2)+ .

  5. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  6. The tariff for fire and theft car insurance: analysis with a Cox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Scarpa

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the problem of identification of a tariff for a Fire & Theft Car policy for Insurance Companies. Usually companies obtain this tariff by empirical estimate of the pure rate by evaluating the impact of some personalization variables. In this paper we propose the usage of a semi-parametric Cox model, where the response variable is not the waiting time until an event, but the degree of damage because of theft or fire of a car. The proposed model allows to easily tackle typical problems in data available to the companies, like the presence of franchises, which are treated as censored data.

  7. Computational Modelling of a Tangentially Fired Boiler With Deposit Formation Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Modliński Norbert J.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Any complete CFD model of pulverised coal-fired boiler needs to consider ash deposition phenomena. Wall boundary conditions (temperature and emissivity should be temporally corrected to account for the effects of deposit growth on the combustion conditions. At present voluminous publications concerning ash related problems are available. The current paper presents development of an engineering tool integrating deposit formation models with the CFD code. It was then applied to two tangentially-fired boilers. The developed numerical tool was validated by comparing it with boiler evaporator power variation based on the on-line diagnostic system with the results from the full CFD simulation.

  8. Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.

    2013-02-01

    Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local

  9. Use of numerical modeling in design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    of numerical modeling. The models currently used to predict solid fuel combustion rely on a spherical particle shape assumption, which may deviate a lot from reality for big biomass particles. A sphere gives a minimum in terms of the surface-area-to-volume ratio, which impacts significantly both motion...... to particle non-sphericity, and a ?virtual-mass? force due to relatively light biomass particles, as well as gravity and a pressure-gradient force. Since the drag and lift forces are both shape factor- and orientation-dependent, coupled particle rotation equations are resolved to update particle orientation...

  10. Fire detection, fuel model estimation and fire propagation estimation/visualization for the protection of Cultural Heritage

    OpenAIRE

    Torri, Dino; Blonda, Alma; Chaabane, Ferdaous; Dimitropoulos, Kosmas; Tsalakanidou, Filareti; Grammalidis, Nikos

    2011-01-01

    FIRESENSE (Fire Detection and Management through a Multi-Sensor Network for the Protection of Cultural Heritage Areas from the Risk of Fire and Extreme Weather Conditions) is a project co-funded by EU FP7 Environment that aims to develop a multi-sensor early warning system to remotely monitor areas of archaeological and cultural interest from the risk of fire and extreme weather conditions. It will combine different sensing technologies, i.e. wireless networks of temperature/humidity sensors,...

  11. Daily and 3-hourly variability in global fire emissions and consequences for atmospheric model predictions of carbon monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; Defries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Wunch, D.; Toon, G. C.; Sherlock, V.; Wennberg, P. O.

    2011-12-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  12. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  13. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  14. Fire exposed facades: Numerical modelling of the LEPIR2 testing facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dréan Virginie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available LEPIR2 testing facility is aimed to evaluate the fire behaviour of construction solutions implemented on facade according with the experimental evaluation required by the French Technical Specification 249 (IT249 of the safety regulation. It aims to limit the risks of fire spreading by facades to upper levels. This facility involves a wood crib fire in the lower compartment of a full scale two levels high structure. Flames are coming outside from the compartment through windows openings and develop in front of the facade. Computational fluids dynamics simulations are carried out with the FDS code (Fire Dynamics Simulator for two full-scale experiments performed by Efectis France laboratory. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of numerical model to reproduce quantitative results in terms of gas temperatures and heat flux on the tested facade for further evaluation of fire performances of an insulation solution. When experimental results are compared with numerical calculations, good agreement is found out for every quantities and each test. The proposed models for wood cribs and geometry give correct thermal loads and flames shape near the tested facade.

  15. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  16. The propagation of inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas

    2016-12-01

    There is unanimous agreement that a precise spatial representation of past landslide occurrences is a prerequisite to produce high quality statistical landslide susceptibility models. Even though perfectly accurate landslide inventories rarely exist, investigations of how landslide inventory-based errors propagate into subsequent statistical landslide susceptibility models are scarce. The main objective of this research was to systematically examine whether and how inventory-based positional inaccuracies of different magnitudes influence modelled relationships, validation results, variable importance and the visual appearance of landslide susceptibility maps. The study was conducted for a landslide-prone site located in the districts of Amstetten and Waidhofen an der Ybbs, eastern Austria, where an earth-slide point inventory was available. The methodological approach comprised an artificial introduction of inventory-based positional errors into the present landslide data set and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Positional errors were introduced by artificially changing the original landslide position by a mean distance of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 120 m. The resulting differently precise response variables were separately used to train logistic regression models. Odds ratios of predictor variables provided insights into modelled relationships. Cross-validation and spatial cross-validation enabled an assessment of predictive performances and permutation-based variable importance. All analyses were additionally carried out with synthetically generated data sets to further verify the findings under rather controlled conditions. The results revealed that an increasing positional inventory-based error was generally related to increasing distortions of modelling and validation results. However, the findings also highlighted that interdependencies between inventory-based spatial inaccuracies and statistical landslide susceptibility models are complex. The

  17. Photochemical model estimated fire impacts on ozone and aerosol evaluated with field studies and routine data sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Highly instrumented field studies provide a unique opportunity to evaluate multiple aspects of photochemical grid model representation of fire emissions, dispersion, and chemical evolution. Fuel information and burn area for a specific fire coupled with near-fire and downwind chemical measurements provides information needed to constrain model predicted fire plume transport and chemical evolution of important pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) that have deleterious health effects. Most local to regional scale field campaigns to date have made relatively few transects through plumes from fires with well characterized fuel type and consumption. While more comprehensive field studies are being planned for 2018 and beyond (WE-CAN, FIREX, FIRE-CHEM, and FASMEE), existing measurement data from multiple field campaigns including 2013 SEAC4RS, satellite data, and routine surface networks are used to assess how a regulatory modeling system captures fire impacts on local to regional scale ozone and PM2.5. Key aspects of the regulatory modeling system include fire location and burn area from SMARTFIRE2, emissions from BlueSky framework, and predictions of ambient O3 and PM2.5 from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical transport model. A comparison of model estimated O3 from specific fires with routine surface measurements at rural locations in proximity to the 2013 Rim fire, 2011 Wallow fire, and 2011 Flint Hills fires suggest the modeling system over-estimates smoke impacts on hourly ozone. Sensitivity simulations where solar radiation and photolysis rates are more aggressively attenuated by smoke reduced O3 predictions but did not ameliorate the over prediction bias. PM2.5 organic carbon tends to be overpredicted at rural surface sites downwind from the 2011 Flint Hills prescribed fires while results were mixed at rural sites downwind of the 2013 Rim fire and 2011 Wallow fire suggesting differences in fuel characterization (e

  18. Linking Satellite-Derived Fire Counts to Satellite-Derived Weather Data in Fire Prediction Models to Forecast Extreme Fires in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westberg, David; Soja, Amber; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.

    2010-05-01

    Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Boreal systems contain the largest pool of terrestrial carbon, and Russia holds 2/3 of the global boreal forests. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under climate change scenarios. Meteorological parameters influence fire danger and fire is a catalyst for ecosystem change. Therefore to predict fire weather and ecosystem change, we must understand the factors that influence fire regimes and at what scale these are viable. Our data consists of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)-derived fire weather indices (FWI) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-derived FWI on a domain from 50°N-80°N latitude and 70°E-170°W longitude and the fire season from April through October for the years of 1999, 2002, and 2004. Both of these are calculated using the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) FWI, which is based on local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. The large-scale (1°) LaRC product uses NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GEOS-4/GPCP) data to calculate FWI. CFS Natural Resources Canada uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to interpolate NCDC station data and calculate FWI. We compare the LaRC GEOS- 4/GPCP FWI and CFS NCDC FWI based on their fraction of 1° grid boxes that contain satellite-derived fire counts and area burned to the domain total number of 1° grid boxes with a common FWI category (very low to extreme). These are separated by International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) 1°x1° resolution vegetation types to determine and compare fire regimes in each FWI/ecosystem class and to estimate the fraction of each of the 18 IGBP ecosystems burned, which are dependent on the

  19. Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B.

    2015-02-01

    Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

  20. The development of thermal models for a UF6 transport container in a fully engulfing fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomas, J.; Clayton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the recent development work on a lumped-parameter model known as BURST3 created by BNFL to examine the physics of the heating problem. The predictions of this model were compared with the results obtained by Mallett in 1965, in which small (3.5, 5 and 8 inch diameter) cylinders were exposed to a fire. In general, the comparison is good; however there are some differences - particularly on the speed of response of the wall temperature to the heating from the fire. The model was further modified to allow conditions of partial and full insulation to be investigated. The partially insulated condition simulates the Japanese proposal to insulate the ends of the container only, leaving the cylinder bare between the stiffening rings. The results obtained with our modified model support the predictions of Abe et al that the partially-insulated cylinder will survive the fire test. The analysis of a completely insulated container has indicated that a minimal thickness of insulation provides sufficient protection to allow survival in the fire test. A discussion of additional improvements to the lumped-parameter model are presented. (J.P.N.)

  1. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  2. Analysis of significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling: Case study Jemma drainage network, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vít Maca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the paper is to describe methodology for calculating significance of environmental factors in landslide susceptibility modeling and present result of selected one. As a study area part of a Jemma basin in Ethiopian Highland is used. This locality is highly affected by mass movement processes. In the first part all major factors and their influence are described briefly. Majority of the work focuses on research of other methodologies used in susceptibility models and design of own methodology. This method is unlike most of the methods used completely objective, therefore it is not possible to intervene in the results. In article all inputs and outputs of the method are described as well as all stages of calculations. Results are illustrated on specific examples. In study area most important factor for landslide susceptibility is slope, on the other hand least important is land cover. At the end of article landslide susceptibility map is created. Part of the article is discussion of results and possible improvements of the methodology.

  3. Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: Avian responses to prescribed fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Saab, V.A.; Lehmkuhl, J.F.; Block, W.M.; Sauer, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife

  4. Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: avian responses to prescribed fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Robin E; Royle, J Andrew; Saab, Victoria A; Lehmkuhl, John F; Block, William M; Sauer, John R

    2009-07-01

    Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife

  5. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cuevas Rivera

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

  6. Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, G. R.; Morton, D. C.; Defries, R. S.; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2009-02-01

    Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001-2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF) runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the ''arc of deforestation'', the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year-1, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74%) with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19%) and pasture fires (7%). In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation and from maintenance fires did not covary, although

  7. Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the ''arc of deforestation'', the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year−1, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74% with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19% and pasture fires (7%. In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation

  8. Fire Whirls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tohidi, Ali; Gollner, Michael J.; Xiao, Huahua

    2018-01-01

    Fire whirls present a powerful intensification of combustion, long studied in the fire research community because of the dangers they present during large urban and wildland fires. However, their destructive power has hidden many features of their formation, growth, and propagation. Therefore, most of what is known about fire whirls comes from scale modeling experiments in the laboratory. Both the methods of formation, which are dominated by wind and geometry, and the inner structure of the whirl, including velocity and temperature fields, have been studied at this scale. Quasi-steady fire whirls directly over a fuel source form the bulk of current experimental knowledge, although many other cases exist in nature. The structure of fire whirls has yet to be reliably measured at large scales; however, scaling laws have been relatively successful in modeling the conditions for formation from small to large scales. This review surveys the state of knowledge concerning the fluid dynamics of fire whirls, including the conditions for their formation, their structure, and the mechanisms that control their unique state. We highlight recent discoveries and survey potential avenues for future research, including using the properties of fire whirls for efficient remediation and energy generation.

  9. Fighting Fire with Fire: Modeling the Datacenter-Scale Effects of Targeted Superlattice Thermal Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, S; Tiwari, M; Theogarajan, L; Sherwood, T P; Chong, F T

    2010-11-11

    Local thermal hot-spots in microprocessors lead to worst case provisioning of global cooling resources, especially in large-scale systems. However, efficiency of cooling solutions degrade non-linearly with supply temperature, resulting in high power consumption and cost in cooling - 50 {approx} 100% of IT power. Recent advances in active cooling techniques have shown on-chip thermoelectric coolers (TECs) to be very efficient at selectively eliminating small hot-spots, where applying current to a superlattice film deposited between silicon and the heat spreader results in a Peltier effect that spreads the heat and lowers the temperature of the hot-spot significantly to improve chip reliability. In this paper, we propose that hot-spot mitigation using thermoelectric coolers can be used as a power management mechanism to allow global coolers to be provisioned for a better worst case temperature leading to substantial savings in cooling power. In order to quantify the potential power savings from using TECs in data center servers, we present a detailed power model that integrates on-chip dynamic and leakage power sources, heat diffusion through the entire chip, TEC and global cooler efficiencies, and all their mutual interactions. Our multiscale analysis shows that, for a typical data center, TECs allow global coolers to operate at higher temperatures without degrading chip lifetime, and thus save {approx}27% cooling power on average while providing the same processor reliability as a data center running at 288K.

  10. Modeling the differentiation of A- and C-type baroreceptor firing patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturdy, Jacob; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Olufsen, Mette

    2017-01-01

    The baroreceptor neurons serve as the primary transducers of blood pressure for the autonomic nervous system and are thus critical in enabling the body to respond effectively to changes in blood pressure. These neurons can be separated into two types (A and C) based on the myelination...... of their axons and their distinct firing patterns elicited in response to specific pressure stimuli. This study has developed a comprehensive model of the afferent baroreceptor discharge built on physiological knowledge of arterial wall mechanics, firing rate responses to controlled pressure stimuli, and ion...

  11. National strategic plan: modeling and data systems for wildland fire and air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David V. Sandberg; Colin C. Hardy; Roger D. Ottmar; J.A. Kendall Snell; Ann Acheson; Janice L. Peterson; Paula Seamon; Peter Lahm; Dale. Wade

    1999-01-01

    This strategic plan is a technical discussion of the implementation and development of models and data systems used to manage the air quality impacts of wildland and prescribed fires. Strategies and priorities in the plan were generated by the Express Team (chartered by the National Wildfire Coordinating Group) and a diverse group of 86 subject matter experts who...

  12. Examination of the wind speed limit function in the Rothermel surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews; Miguel G. Cruz; Richard C. Rothermel

    2013-01-01

    The Rothermel surface fire spread model includes a wind speed limit, above which predicted rate of spread is constant. Complete derivation of the wind limit as a function of reaction intensity is given, along with an alternate result based on a changed assumption. Evidence indicates that both the original and the revised wind limits are too restrictive. Wind limit is...

  13. Integrate-and-fire models with an almost periodic input function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzak, Piotr; Nawrocki, Adam; Signerska-Rynkowska, Justyna

    2018-02-01

    We investigate leaky integrate-and-fire models (LIF models for short) driven by Stepanov and μ-almost periodic functions. Special attention is paid to the properties of the firing map and its displacement, which give information about the spiking behavior of the considered system. We provide conditions under which such maps are well-defined and are uniformly continuous. We show that the LIF models with Stepanov almost periodic inputs have uniformly almost periodic displacements. We also show that in the case of μ-almost periodic drives it may happen that the displacement map is uniformly continuous, but is not μ-almost periodic (and thus cannot be Stepanov or uniformly almost periodic). By allowing discontinuous inputs, we extend some previous results, showing, for example, that the firing rate for the LIF models with Stepanov almost periodic input exists and is unique. This is a starting point for the investigation of the dynamics of almost-periodically driven integrate-and-fire systems.

  14. An improved canopy wind model for predicting wind adjustment factors and wildland fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Massman; J. M. Forthofer; M. A. Finney

    2017-01-01

    The ability to rapidly estimate wind speed beneath a forest canopy or near the ground surface in any vegetation is critical to practical wildland fire behavior models. The common metric of this wind speed is the "mid-flame" wind speed, UMF. However, the existing approach for estimating UMF has some significant shortcomings. These include the assumptions that...

  15. A mobility constraint model to infer sensor behaviour in forest fire risk monitoring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ballari, D.E.; Wachowicz, M.; Bregt, A.K.; Manso-Callejo, M.A.

    2012-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) play an important role in forest fire risk monitoring. Various applications are in operation. However, the use of mobile sensors in forest risk monitoring remains largely unexplored. Our research contributes to fill this gap by designing a model which abstracts

  16. Control of clustered action potential firing in a mathematical model of entorhinal cortex stellate cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, Luke; Wedgwood, Kyle; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Brown, Jon T; Goodfellow, Marc

    2018-04-11

    The entorhinal cortex is a crucial component of our memory and spatial navigation systems and is one of the first areas to be affected in dementias featuring tau pathology, such as Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia. Electrophysiological recordings from principle cells of medial entorhinal cortex (layer II stellate cells, mEC-SCs) demonstrate a number of key identifying properties including subthreshold oscillations in the theta (4-12 Hz) range and clustered action potential firing. These single cell properties are correlated with network activity such as grid firing and coupling between theta and gamma rhythms, suggesting they are important for spatial memory. As such, experimental models of dementia have revealed disruption of organised dorsoventral gradients in clustered action potential firing. To better understand the mechanisms underpinning these different dynamics, we study a conductance based model of mEC-SCs. We demonstrate that the model, driven by extrinsic noise, can capture quantitative differences in clustered action potential firing patterns recorded from experimental models of tau pathology and healthy animals. The differential equation formulation of our model allows us to perform numerical bifurcation analyses in order to uncover the dynamic mechanisms underlying these patterns. We show that clustered dynamics can be understood as subcritical Hopf/homoclinic bursting in a fast-slow system where the slow sub-system is governed by activation of the persistent sodium current and inactivation of the slow A-type potassium current. In the full system, we demonstrate that clustered firing arises via flip bifurcations as conductance parameters are varied. Our model analyses confirm the experimentally suggested hypothesis that the breakdown of clustered dynamics in disease occurs via increases in AHP conductance. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

  18. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...

  19. Individual and Familial Susceptibility to MPTP in a Common Marmoset Model for Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Sigrid K; van Kesteren, Ronald E; Hofman, Sam; Wubben, Jacqueline A M; Smit, August B; Philippens, Ingrid H C H M

    2016-01-01

    Insight into susceptibility mechanisms underlying Parkinson's disease (PD) would aid the understanding of disease etiology, enable target finding and benefit the development of more refined disease-modifying strategies. We used intermittent low-dose MPTP (0.5 mg/kg/week) injections in marmosets and measured multiple behavioral and neurochemical parameters. Genetically diverse monkeys from different breeding families were selected to investigate inter- and intrafamily differences in susceptibility to MPTP treatment. We show that such differences exist in clinical signs, in particular nonmotor PD-related behaviors, and that they are accompanied by differences in neurotransmitter levels. In line with the contribution of a genetic component, different susceptibility phenotypes could be traced back through genealogy to individuals of the different families. Our findings show that low-dose MPTP treatment in marmosets represents a clinically relevant PD model, with a window of opportunity to examine the onset of the disease, allowing the detection of individual variability in disease susceptibility, which may be of relevance for the diagnosis and treatment of PD in humans. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

    2013-12-01

    Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in

  1. Linking susceptibility genes and pathogenesis mechanisms using mouse models of systemic lupus erythematosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve P. Crampton

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE represents a challenging autoimmune disease from a clinical perspective because of its varied forms of presentation. Although broad-spectrum steroids remain the standard treatment for SLE, they have many side effects and only provide temporary relief from the symptoms of the disease. Thus, gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic traits and biological pathways that confer susceptibility to SLE will help in the design of more targeted and effective therapeutics. Both human genome-wide association studies (GWAS and investigations using a variety of mouse models of SLE have been valuable for the identification of the genes and pathways involved in pathogenesis. In this Review, we link human susceptibility genes for SLE with biological pathways characterized in mouse models of lupus, and discuss how the mechanistic insights gained could advance drug discovery for the disease.

  2. Linking susceptibility genes and pathogenesis mechanisms using mouse models of systemic lupus erythematosus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crampton, Steve P.; Morawski, Peter A.; Bolland, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) represents a challenging autoimmune disease from a clinical perspective because of its varied forms of presentation. Although broad-spectrum steroids remain the standard treatment for SLE, they have many side effects and only provide temporary relief from the symptoms of the disease. Thus, gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic traits and biological pathways that confer susceptibility to SLE will help in the design of more targeted and effective therapeutics. Both human genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and investigations using a variety of mouse models of SLE have been valuable for the identification of the genes and pathways involved in pathogenesis. In this Review, we link human susceptibility genes for SLE with biological pathways characterized in mouse models of lupus, and discuss how the mechanistic insights gained could advance drug discovery for the disease. PMID:25147296

  3. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  4. Implementation and verification of a coupled fire model as a thermal boundary condition within P3/THERMAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hensinger, D.M.; Gritzo, L.A.; Koski, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    A user-defined boundary condition subroutine has been implemented within P3/THERMAL to represent the heat flux between a noncombusting object and an engulfing fire. The heat flux calculations includes a simple 2D fire model in which energy and radiative heat transport equations are solved to produce estimates of the heat fluxes at the fire-object interface. These estimates reflect radiative coupling between a cold object and the flow of hot combustion gases which has been observed in fire experiments. The model uses a database of experimental pool fire measurements for far field boundary conditions and volumetric heat release rates. Taking into account the coupling between a structure and the fire is an improvement over the σT 4 approximation frequently used as a boundary condition for engineered system response and is the preliminary step in the development of a fire model with a predictive capability. This paper describes the implementation of the fire model as a P3/THERMAL boundary condition and presents the results of a verification calculation carried out using the model

  5. Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

    2010-05-01

    Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations

  6. Comparison Between Surf and Multi-Shock Forest Fire High Explosive Burn Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenfield, Nicholas Alexander [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-07-18

    PAGOSA1 has several different burn models used to model high explosive detonation. Two of these, Multi-Shock Forest Fire and Surf, are capable of modeling shock initiation. Accurately calculating shock initiation of a high explosive is important because it is a mechanism for detonation in many accident scenarios (i.e. fragment impact). Comparing the models to pop-plot data give confidence that the models are accurately calculating detonation or lack thereof. To compare the performance of these models, pop-plots2 were created from simulations where one two cm block of PBX 9502 collides with another block of PBX 9502.

  7. SPATIAL RESOLUTION EFFECTS OF DIGITAL TERRAIN MODELS ON LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. T. Chang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study are to identify the maximum number of correlated factors for landslide susceptibility mapping and to evaluate landslide susceptibility at Sihjhong river catchment in the southern Taiwan, integrating two techniques, namely certainty factor (CF and artificial neural network (ANN. The landslide inventory data of the Central Geological Survey (CGS, MOEA in 2004-2014 and two digital elevation model (DEM datasets including a 5-meter LiDAR DEM and a 30-meter Aster DEM were prepared. We collected thirteen possible landslide-conditioning factors. Considering the multi-collinearity and factor redundancy, we applied the CF approach to optimize these thirteen conditioning factors. We hypothesize that if the CF values of the thematic factor layers are positive, it implies that these conditioning factors have a positive relationship with the landslide occurrence. Therefore, based on this assumption and positive CF values, seven conditioning factors including slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, terrain roughness index (TRI, terrain position index (TPI, total curvature, and lithology have been selected for further analysis. The results showed that the optimized-factors model provides a better accuracy for predicting landslide susceptibility in the study area. In conclusion, the optimized-factors model is suggested for selecting relative factors of landslide occurrence.

  8. A spiking network model of cerebellar Purkinje cells and molecular layer interneurons exhibiting irregular firing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William eLennon

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While the anatomy of the cerebellar microcircuit is well studied, how it implements cerebellar function is not understood. A number of models have been proposed to describe this mechanism but few emphasize the role of the vast network Purkinje cells (PKJs form with the molecular layer interneurons (MLIs – the stellate and basket cells. We propose a model of the MLI-PKJ network composed of simple spiking neurons incorporating the major anatomical and physiological features. In computer simulations, the model reproduces the irregular firing patterns observed in PKJs and MLIs in vitro and a shift toward faster, more regular firing patterns when inhibitory synaptic currents are blocked. In the model, the time between PKJ spikes is shown to be proportional to the amount of feedforward inhibition from an MLI on average. The two key elements of the model are: (1 spontaneously active PKJs and MLIs due to an endogenous depolarizing current, and (2 adherence to known anatomical connectivity along a parasagittal strip of cerebellar cortex. We propose this model to extend previous spiking network models of the cerebellum and for further computational investigation into the role of irregular firing and MLIs in cerebellar learning and function.

  9. Cancer susceptibility and reproductive trade-offs: a model of the evolution of cancer defences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddy, Amy M; Kokko, Hanna; Breden, Felix; Wilkinson, Gerald S; Aktipis, C Athena

    2015-07-19

    The factors influencing cancer susceptibility and why it varies across species are major open questions in the field of cancer biology. One underexplored source of variation in cancer susceptibility may arise from trade-offs between reproductive competitiveness (e.g. sexually selected traits, earlier reproduction and higher fertility) and cancer defence. We build a model that contrasts the probabilistic onset of cancer with other, extrinsic causes of mortality and use it to predict that intense reproductive competition will lower cancer defences and increase cancer incidence. We explore the trade-off between cancer defences and intraspecific competition across different extrinsic mortality conditions and different levels of trade-off intensity, and find the largest effect of competition on cancer in species where low extrinsic mortality combines with strong trade-offs. In such species, selection to delay cancer and selection to outcompete conspecifics are both strong, and the latter conflicts with the former. We discuss evidence for the assumed trade-off between reproductive competitiveness and cancer susceptibility. Sexually selected traits such as ornaments or large body size require high levels of cell proliferation and appear to be associated with greater cancer susceptibility. Similar associations exist for female traits such as continuous egg-laying in domestic hens and earlier reproductive maturity. Trade-offs between reproduction and cancer defences may be instantiated by a variety of mechanisms, including higher levels of growth factors and hormones, less efficient cell-cycle control and less DNA repair, or simply a larger number of cell divisions (relevant when reproductive success requires large body size or rapid reproductive cycles). These mechanisms can affect intra- and interspecific variation in cancer susceptibility arising from rapid cell proliferation during reproductive maturation, intrasexual competition and reproduction. © 2015 The Author

  10. Cancer susceptibility and reproductive trade-offs: a model of the evolution of cancer defences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddy, Amy M.; Kokko, Hanna; Breden, Felix; Wilkinson, Gerald S.; Aktipis, C. Athena

    2015-01-01

    The factors influencing cancer susceptibility and why it varies across species are major open questions in the field of cancer biology. One underexplored source of variation in cancer susceptibility may arise from trade-offs between reproductive competitiveness (e.g. sexually selected traits, earlier reproduction and higher fertility) and cancer defence. We build a model that contrasts the probabilistic onset of cancer with other, extrinsic causes of mortality and use it to predict that intense reproductive competition will lower cancer defences and increase cancer incidence. We explore the trade-off between cancer defences and intraspecific competition across different extrinsic mortality conditions and different levels of trade-off intensity, and find the largest effect of competition on cancer in species where low extrinsic mortality combines with strong trade-offs. In such species, selection to delay cancer and selection to outcompete conspecifics are both strong, and the latter conflicts with the former. We discuss evidence for the assumed trade-off between reproductive competitiveness and cancer susceptibility. Sexually selected traits such as ornaments or large body size require high levels of cell proliferation and appear to be associated with greater cancer susceptibility. Similar associations exist for female traits such as continuous egg-laying in domestic hens and earlier reproductive maturity. Trade-offs between reproduction and cancer defences may be instantiated by a variety of mechanisms, including higher levels of growth factors and hormones, less efficient cell-cycle control and less DNA repair, or simply a larger number of cell divisions (relevant when reproductive success requires large body size or rapid reproductive cycles). These mechanisms can affect intra- and interspecific variation in cancer susceptibility arising from rapid cell proliferation during reproductive maturation, intrasexual competition and reproduction. PMID:26056364

  11. Development of a model to predict ash transport and water pollution risk in fire-affected environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neris, Jonay; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Robichaud, Peter R.

    2017-04-01

    An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

  12. First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos

    2017-04-01

    An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

  13. Computational Modelling of a Tangentially Fired Boiler With Deposit Formation Phenomena

    OpenAIRE

    Modliński Norbert J.

    2014-01-01

    Any complete CFD model of pulverised coal-fired boiler needs to consider ash deposition phenomena. Wall boundary conditions (temperature and emissivity) should be temporally corrected to account for the effects of deposit growth on the combustion conditions. At present voluminous publications concerning ash related problems are available. The current paper presents development of an engineering tool integrating deposit formation models with the CFD code. It was then applied to two tangentiall...

  14. High predictor dimensionality in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models through LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, Luigi; Castro-Camilo, Daniela; Mai, Martin; Jie, Dou; Huser, Raphaël

    2017-04-01

    Grid-based landslide susceptibility models at regional scales are computationally demanding when using a fine grid resolution. Conversely, Slope-Unit (SU) based susceptibility models allows to investigate the same areas offering two main advantages: 1) a smaller computational burden and 2) a more geomorphologically-oriented output. In this contribution, we generate a SU-based landslide susceptibility for the Sado Island in Japan. This island is characterized by deep-seated landslides which we assume can only limitedly be explained by the first two statistical moments (mean and variance) of a set of predictors within each slope unit. As a consequence, in a nested experiment, we first analyze the distributions of a set of continuous predictors within each slope unit computing the standard deviation and quantiles from 0.05 to 0.95 with a step of 0.05 which were then used as predictors for landslide susceptibility. In addition, we combined shape indices for polygon features and the normalized extent of each class belonging to the outcropping lithology in a given SU. This procedure significantly enlarges the size of the predictor hyperspace, thus producing a high level of slope-unit characterization. In a second step, we adopt a LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model to reduce the predictor set to a sensible and interpretable number, carrying only the most significant covariates in the models. As a result, we are able to identify the geomorphic features that primarily control the SU-based susceptibility within the test area while producing high predictive performances. Level 4 validation procedures were implemented to assess uncertainty and quality of the models through a set of 500 randomly generated replicates.

  15. Modeling potential structure ignitions from flame radiation exposure with implications for wildland/urban interface fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack D. Cohen; Bret W. Butler

    1998-01-01

    Residential losses associated with wildland fires have become a serious international fire protection problem. The radiant heat flux from burning vegetation adjacent to a structure is a principal ignition factor. A thermal radiation and ignition model estimated structure ignition potential using designated flame characteristics (inferred from various types and...

  16. State of Fire Behavior Models and their Application to Ecosystem and Smoke Management Issues: Special Session Summary Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-24

    Research meteorologist Narasimhan (Sim) Larkin USFS Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab Research physical climatologist (BlueSky) Ruddy Mell USFS...State of Fire Behavior Models and Smoke February 24, 2014 45 Afternoon Session Q&A Q1 (Jacob Wolf, air quality meteorologist , Idaho

  17. Incorporating field wind data into FIRETEC simulations of the International Crown Fire Modeling Experiment (ICFME): preliminary lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodman Linn; Kerry Anderson; Judith Winterkamp; Alyssa Broos; Michael Wotton; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Francois Pimont; Carleton Edminster

    2012-01-01

    Field experiments are one way to develop or validate wildland fire-behavior models. It is important to consider the implications of assumptions relating to the locality of measurements with respect to the fire, the temporal frequency of the measured data, and the changes to local winds that might be caused by the experimental configuration. Twenty FIRETEC simulations...

  18. Multiplatform inversion of the 2013 Rim Fire smoke emissions using regional-scale modeling: important nocturnal fire activity, air quality, and climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saide, P. E.; Peterson, D. A.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Ziemba, L. D.; Anderson, B.; Diskin, G. S.; Sachse, G. W.; Hair, J. W.; Butler, C. F.; Fenn, M. A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Dibb, J. E.; Yokelson, R. J.; Toon, B.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2014-12-01

    Large wildfire events are increasingly recognized for their adverse effects on air quality and visibility, thus providing motivation for improving smoke emission estimates. The Rim Fire, one of the largest events in California's history, produced a large smoke plume that was sampled by the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) DC-8 aircraft with a full suite of in-situ and remote sensing measurements on 26-27 August 2013. We developed an inversion methodology which uses the WRF-Chem modeling system to constrain hourly fire emissions, using as initial estimates the NASA Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). This method differs from the commonly performed top-down estimates that constrain daily (or longer time scale) emissions. The inversion method is able to simultaneously improve the model fit to various SEAC4RS airborne measurements (e.g., organic aerosol, carbon monoxide (CO), aerosol extinction), ground based measurements (e.g., AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD), CO), and satellite data (MODIS AOD) by modifying fire emissions and utilizing the information content of all these measurements. Preliminary results show that constrained emissions for a 6 day period following the largest fire growth are a factor 2-4 higher than the initial top-down estimates. Moreover, there is a tendency to increase nocturnal emissions by factors sometimes larger than 20, indicating that vigorous fire activity continued during the night. This deviation from a typical diurnal cycle is confirmed using geostationary satellite data. The constrained emissions also have a larger day-to-day variability than the initial emissions and correlate better to daily area burned estimates as observed by airborne infrared measurements (NIROPS). Experiments with the assimilation system show that performing the inversion using only satellite AOD data produces much smaller correction factors than when using all available data

  19. Modeling of phosphorus fluxes produced by wild fires at watershed scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyjasik, M.; Hernandez, M.; Shaw, N.; Baker, M.; Fowles, M. T.; Cisney, T. A.; Jex, A. P.; Moisen, G.

    2017-12-01

    River runoff is one of the controlling processes in the terrestrial phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus is often a limiting factor in fresh water. One of the factors that has not been studied and modeled in detail is phosporus flux produced from forest wild fires. Phosphate released by weathering is quickly absorbed in soils. Forest wild fires expose barren soils to intensive erosion, thus releasing relatively large fluxes of phosphorus. Measurements from three control burn sites were used to correlate erosion with phosphorus fluxes. These results were used to model phosphorus fluxes from burned watersheds during a five year long period after fires occurred. Erosion in our model is simulated using a combination of two models: the WEPP (USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project) and the GeoWEPP (GIS-based Water Erosion Prediction Project). Erosion produced from forest disturbances is predicted for any watershed using hydrologic, soil, and meteorological data unique to the individual watersheds or individual slopes. The erosion results are modified for different textural soil classes and slope angles to model fluxes of phosphorus. The results of these models are calibrated using measured concentrations of phosphorus for three watersheds located in the Interior Western United States. The results will help the United States Forest Service manage phosporus fluxes in national forests.

  20. Sodium spray and jet fire model development within the CONTAIN-LMR code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholtyssek, W.

    1993-01-01

    An assessment was made of the sodium spray fire model implemented in the CONTAIN code. The original droplet burn model, which was based on the NACOM code, was improved in several aspects, especially concerning evaluation of the droplet burning rate, reaction chemistry and heat balance, spray geometry and droplet motion, and consistency with CONTAIN standards of gas property evaluation. An additional droplet burning model based on a proposal by Krolikowski was made available to include the effect of the chemical equilibrium conditions at the flame temperature. The models were validated against single-droplet burn experiments as well as spray and jet fire experiments. Reasonable agreement was found between the two burn models and experimental data. When the gas temperature in the burning compartment reaches high values, the Krolikowski model seems to be preferable. Critical parameters for spray fire evaluation were found to be the spray characterization, especially the droplet size, which largely determines the burning efficiency, and heat transfer conditions at the interface between the atmosphere and structures, which controls the thermal hydraulic behavior in the burn compartment

  1. Application of an advanced fuzzy logic model for landslide susceptibility analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biswajeet Pradhan

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate the susceptibility of landslides at Klang valley area, Malaysia, using a Geographic Information System (GIS and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and from field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. A data derived model (frequency ratio and a knowledge-derived model (fuzzy operator were combined for landslide susceptibility analysis. The nine factors that influence landslide occurrence were extracted from the database and the frequency ratio coefficient for each factor was computed. Using the factors and the identified landslide, the fuzzy membership values were calculated. Then fuzzy algebraic operators were applied to the fuzzy membership values for landslide susceptibility mapping. Finally, the produced map was verified by comparing with existing landslide locations for calculating prediction accuracy. Among the fuzzy operators, in the case in which the gamma operator (l = 0.8 showed the best accuracy (91% while the case in which the fuzzy algebraic product was applied showed the worst accuracy (79%.

  2. Handling high predictor dimensionality in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models through LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model

    KAUST Repository

    Camilo, Daniela Castro

    2017-08-30

    Grid-based landslide susceptibility models at regional scales are computationally demanding when using a fine grid resolution. Conversely, Slope-Unit (SU) based susceptibility models allows to investigate the same areas offering two main advantages: 1) a smaller computational burden and 2) a more geomorphologically-oriented interpretation. In this contribution, we generate SU-based landslide susceptibility for the Sado Island in Japan. This island is characterized by deep-seated landslides which we assume can only limitedly be explained by the first two statistical moments (mean and variance) of a set of predictors within each slope unit. As a consequence, in a nested experiment, we first analyse the distributions of a set of continuous predictors within each slope unit computing the standard deviation and quantiles from 0.05 to 0.95 with a step of 0.05. These are then used as predictors for landslide susceptibility. In addition, we combine shape indices for polygon features and the normalized extent of each class belonging to the outcropping lithology in a given SU. This procedure significantly enlarges the size of the predictor hyperspace, thus producing a high level of slope-unit characterization. In a second step, we adopt a LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model to shrink back the predictor set to a sensible and interpretable number, carrying only the most significant covariates in the models. As a result, we are able to document the geomorphic features (e.g., 95% quantile of Elevation and 5% quantile of Plan Curvature) that primarily control the SU-based susceptibility within the test area while producing high predictive performances. The implementation of the statistical analyses are included in a parallelized R script (LUDARA) which is here made available for the community to replicate analogous experiments.

  3. Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai

    2017-04-01

    Most of the landslide cases in Taiwan were triggered by rainfall or earthquake events. The heavy rainfall in the typhoon seasons, from June to October, causes the landslide hazard more serious. Renai Towhship is of the most large landslide cases after 2009 Typhoon Morakot (from Aug. 5 to Aug. 10, 2009) in Taiwan. Around 2,744 landslides cases with the total landslide area of 21.5 km2 (landslide ratio =1.8%), including 26 large landslide cases, induced after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Towhship. The area of each large landslides case is more than 0.1 km2, and the area of the largest case is around 0.96 km2. 58% of large landslide cases locate in the area with metamorphosed sandstone. The mean slope of 26 large landslide cases ranges from 15 degree to 56 degree, and the accumulated rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot ranges from 530 mm to 937 mm. Three methods, including frequency ratio method (abbreviated as FR), weights of evidence method (abbreviated as WOE), and logistic regression method (abbreviated as LR), are used in this study to establish the landslides susceptibility in the Renai Township, Nantou County, Taiwan. Eight landslide related-factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, land use, distance to drainage, distance to fault, accumulation rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot, are used to establish the landslide susceptibility models in this study. The landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot is also used to test the model performance in this study. The mean accumulated rainfall in Renai Township during 2009 typhoon Morakot was around 735 mm with the maximum 1-hr, 3-hrs, and 6-hrs rainfall intensity of 44 mm/1-hr, 106 mm/3-hrs and 204 mm/6-hrs, respectively. The range of original susceptibility values established by three methods are 4.0 to 20.9 for FR, -33.8 to -16.1 for WOE, and -41.7 to 5.7 for LR, and the mean landslide susceptibility value are 8.0, -24.6 and 0.38, respectively. The AUC values are 0.815 for FR, 0.816 for WOE, and 0

  4. Model-based Control of a Bottom Fired Marine Boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Karstensen, Claus M. S.; Andersen, Palle

    This paper focuses on applying model based MIMO control to minimize variations in water level for a specific boiler type. A first principles model is put up. The model is linearized and an LQG controller is designed. Furthermore the benefit of using a steam °ow measurement is compared to a strategy...... relying on estimates of the disturbance. Preliminary tests at the boiler system show that the designed controller is able to control the boiler process. Furthermore it can be concluded that relying on estimates of the steam flow in the control strategy does not decrease the controller performance...

  5. Model-based Control of a Bottom Fired Marine Boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Karstensen, Claus M. S.; Andersen, Palle

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on applying model based MIMO control to minimize variations in water level for a specific boiler type. A first principles model is put up. The model is linearized and an LQG controller is designed. Furthermore the benefit of using a steam °ow measurement is compared to a strategy...... relying on estimates of the disturbance. Preliminary tests at the boiler system show that the designed controller is able to control the boiler process. Furthermore it can be concluded that relying on estimates of the steam flow in the control strategy does not decrease the controller performance...

  6. Modelling increased landslide susceptibility near highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenning, Alexander; Muenchow, Jannes

    2016-04-01

    Modelling increased landslide susceptibility near highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador A. Brenning (1), J. Muenchow (1) (1) Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Loebdergraben 32, 07743 Jena, Germany Mountain roads are affected by and also affect themselves landslide suceptibility. Especially in developing countries, inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading are known processes through which road construction and maintenance can enhance landslide activity within the immediate surroundings of road infrastructure. In the Andes of southern Ecuador, strong precipitation gradients as well as lithological differences provide an excellent study site in which the relationship between highways and landslide susceptibility and its regional differentiation can be studied. This study uses Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to investigate patterns of landslide susceptibility along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador. The relationship of landslides to distance from road is modeled while accounting for topographic, climatic and lithological predictors as possible confounders and modifiers, focusing on the odds ratio of landslide occurrence at 25 m versus 200 m distance from the highway. Spatial attention is given to uncertainties in estimated odds ratios of landslide occurrence using spatial block bootstrap techniques. The GAM is able to represent nonlinear additive terms as well as bivariate smooth interaction terms, providing a good tradeoff between model complexity and interpretability. The estimated odds of landslide occurrence were 18-21 times higher near the highway than at 200 m distance, based on different analyses, with lower 95% confidence limits always >13. (Semi-) parametric estimates confirmed this general range of values but suggests slightly higher odds ratios (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). Highway-related effects were observed to

  7. Numerical modeling of sodium fire – Part II: Pool combustion and combined spray and pool combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathiah, Pratap; Roelofs, Ferry

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A CFD based method is proposed for the simulation of sodium pool combustion. • A sodium evaporation based model is proposed to model sodium pool evaporation. • The proposed method is validated against sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. • The results obtained using the proposed method are in good agreement with the experiments. - Abstract: The risk of sodium-air reaction has received considerable attention after the sodium-fire accident in Monju reactor. The fires resulting from the sodium-air reaction can be detrimental to the safety of a sodium fast reactor. Therefore, predicting the consequences of a sodium fire is important from a safety point of view. A computational method based on CFD is proposed here to simulate sodium pool fire and understand its characteristics. The method solves the Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equation and uses a non-premixed mixture fraction based combustion model. The mass transfer of sodium vapor from the pool surface to the flame is obtained using a sodium evaporation model. The proposed method is then validated against well-known sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. The flame temperature and location predicted by the model are in good agreement with experiments. Furthermore, the trends of the mean burning rate with initial pool temperature and oxygen concentration are captured well. Additionally, parametric studies have been performed to understand the effects of pool diameter and initial air temperature on the mean burning rate. Furthermore, the sodium spray and sodium pool combustion models are combined to simulate simultaneous spray and pool combustion. Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the combined code could be applied to simulate this. Once sufficiently validated, the present code can be used for safety evaluation of a sodium fast reactor

  8. Numerical modeling of sodium fire – Part II: Pool combustion and combined spray and pool combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathiah, Pratap, E-mail: pratap.sathiah78@gmail.com [Shell Global Solutions Ltd., Brabazon House, Concord Business Park, Threapwood Road, Manchester M220RR (United Kingdom); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), Westerduinweg 3, 1755ZG Petten (Netherlands)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • A CFD based method is proposed for the simulation of sodium pool combustion. • A sodium evaporation based model is proposed to model sodium pool evaporation. • The proposed method is validated against sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. • The results obtained using the proposed method are in good agreement with the experiments. - Abstract: The risk of sodium-air reaction has received considerable attention after the sodium-fire accident in Monju reactor. The fires resulting from the sodium-air reaction can be detrimental to the safety of a sodium fast reactor. Therefore, predicting the consequences of a sodium fire is important from a safety point of view. A computational method based on CFD is proposed here to simulate sodium pool fire and understand its characteristics. The method solves the Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equation and uses a non-premixed mixture fraction based combustion model. The mass transfer of sodium vapor from the pool surface to the flame is obtained using a sodium evaporation model. The proposed method is then validated against well-known sodium pool experiments of Newman and Payne. The flame temperature and location predicted by the model are in good agreement with experiments. Furthermore, the trends of the mean burning rate with initial pool temperature and oxygen concentration are captured well. Additionally, parametric studies have been performed to understand the effects of pool diameter and initial air temperature on the mean burning rate. Furthermore, the sodium spray and sodium pool combustion models are combined to simulate simultaneous spray and pool combustion. Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the combined code could be applied to simulate this. Once sufficiently validated, the present code can be used for safety evaluation of a sodium fast reactor.

  9. Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based statistical models and Remote sensing data in tropical environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahabi, Himan; Hashim, Mazlan

    2015-04-22

    This research presents the results of the GIS-based statistical models for generation of landslide susceptibility mapping using geographic information system (GIS) and remote-sensing data for Cameron Highlands area in Malaysia. Ten factors including slope, aspect, soil, lithology, NDVI, land cover, distance to drainage, precipitation, distance to fault, and distance to road were extracted from SAR data, SPOT 5 and WorldView-1 images. The relationships between the detected landslide locations and these ten related factors were identified by using GIS-based statistical models including analytical hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) models. The landslide inventory map which has a total of 92 landslide locations was created based on numerous resources such as digital aerial photographs, AIRSAR data, WorldView-1 images, and field surveys. Then, 80% of the landslide inventory was used for training the statistical models and the remaining 20% was used for validation purpose. The validation results using the Relative landslide density index (R-index) and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) demonstrated that the SMCE model (accuracy is 96%) is better in prediction than AHP (accuracy is 91%) and WLC (accuracy is 89%) models. These landslide susceptibility maps would be useful for hazard mitigation purpose and regional planning.

  10. Modeling of biomass smoke injection into the lower stratosphere by a large forest fire (Part I: reference simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Trentmann

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fires in boreal regions have the potential to initiate deep convection, so-called pyro-convection, due to their release of sensible heat. Under favorable atmospheric conditions, large fires can result in pyro-convection that transports the emissions into the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Here, we present three-dimensional model simulations of the injection of fire emissions into the lower stratosphere by pyro-convection. These model simulations are constrained and evaluated with observations obtained from the Chisholm fire in Alberta, Canada, in 2001. The active tracer high resolution atmospheric model (ATHAM is initialized with observations obtained by radiosonde. Information on the fire forcing is obtained from ground-based observations of the mass and moisture of the burned fuel. Based on radar observations, the pyro-convection reached an altitude of about 13 km, well above the tropopause, which was located at about 11.2 km. The model simulation yields a similarly strong convection with an overshoot of the convection above the tropopause. The main outflow from the pyro-convection occurs at about 10.6 km, but a significant fraction (about 8% of the emitted mass of the smoke aerosol is transported above the tropopause. In contrast to regular convection, the region with maximum updraft velocity in the pyro-convection is located close to the surface above the fire. This results in high updraft velocities >10 m s−1 at cloud base. The temperature anomaly in the plume decreases rapidly with height from values above 50 K at the fire to about 5 K at about 3000 m above the fire. While the sensible heat released from the fire is responsible for the initiation of convection in the model, the release of latent heat from condensation and freezing dominates the overall energy budget. Emissions of water vapor from the fire do not significantly contribute to the energy budget of the convection.

  11. Pairing susceptibility of iron-based superconductors within a two-layer Hubbard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Dan; Wang, Jingyao; Wu, Yang; Liang, Ying; Ma, Tianxing

    2017-12-01

    By using the determinant quantum Monte Carlo method, we studied the dominant pairing susceptibility of iron-based superconductors within an extended Hubbard model, which describes the underlying electronic structure of both iron pnictides and iron chalcogenides. The extended Hubbard model is constructed by two iron layers, each of which forms two sublattices on a square structure. Although the coupling between the two layers has different effects on the behavior of pairings in iron pnictides and iron chalcogenides, our non-biased numerical simulations reveal that the pairing with Sxy symmetry dominates over the studied parameter for both materials.

  12. Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the

  13. Fire safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Bjoerkman, J.; Hostikka, S.; Mangs, J.; Huhtanen, R.; Palmen, H.; Salminen, A.; Turtola, A.

    1998-01-01

    According to experience and probabilistic risk assessments, fires present a significant hazard in a nuclear power plant. Fires may be initial events for accidents or affect safety systems planned to prevent accidents and to mitigate their consequences. The project consists of theoretical work, experiments and simulations aiming to increase the fire safety at nuclear power plants. The project has four target areas: (1) to produce validated models for numerical simulation programmes, (2) to produce new information on the behavior of equipment in case of fire, (3) to study applicability of new active fire protecting systems in nuclear power plants, and (4) to obtain quantitative knowledge of ignitions induced by important electric devices in nuclear power plants. These topics have been solved mainly experimentally, but modelling at different level is used to interpret experimental data, and to allow easy generalisation and engineering use of the obtained data. Numerical fire simulation has concentrated in comparison of CFD modelling of room fires, and fire spreading on cables on experimental data. So far the success has been good to fair. A simple analytical and numerical model has been developed for fire effluents spreading beyond the room of origin in mechanically strongly ventilated compartments. For behaviour of equipment in fire several full scale and scaled down calorimetric experiments were carried out on electronic cabinets, as well as on horizontal and vertical cable trays. These were carried out to supply material for CFD numerical simulation code validation. Several analytical models were developed and validated against obtained experimental results to allow quick calculations for PSA estimates as well as inter- and extrapolations to slightly different objects. Response times of different commercial fire detectors were determined for different types of smoke, especially emanating from smoldering and flaming cables to facilitate selection of proper detector

  14. Modelling and mitigating dose to firefighters from inhalation of radionuclides in wildland fire smoke.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viner, Brian J. [Savannah River National Laboratory, Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC

    2015-06-12

    Firefighters responding to wildland fires where surface litter and vegetation contain radiological contamination will receive a radiological dose by inhaling resuspended radioactive material in the smoke. This may increase their lifetime risk of contracting certain types of cancer. Using published data, we modelled hypothetical radionuclide emissions, dispersion and dose for 70th and 97th percentile environmental conditions and for average and high fuel loads at the Savannah River Site. We predicted downwind concentration and potential dose to firefighters for radionuclides of interest (137Cs, 238Pu, 90Sr and 210Po). Predicted concentrations exceeded dose guidelines in the base case scenario emissions of 1.0 x 107Bq ha-1 for 238Pu at 70th percentile environmental conditions and average fuel load levels for both 4- and 14-h shifts. Under 97th percentile environmental conditions and high fuel loads, dose guidelines were exceeded for several reported cases for 90Sr, 238Pu and 210Po. The potential for exceeding dose guidelines was mitigated by including plume rise (>2ms-1) or moving a small distance from the fire owing to large concentration gradients near the edge of the fire. This approach can quickly estimate potential dose from airborne radionuclides in wildland fire and assist decision-making to reduce firefighter exposure.

  15. Modeling and numerical analysis of granite rock specimen under mechanical loading and fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc Leroy Ngueyep. Mambou

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The effect of ISO 834 fire on the mechanical properties of granite rock specimen submitted to uniaxial loading is numerically investigated. Based on Newton's second law, the rate-equation model of granite rock specimen under mechanical load and fire is established. The effect of heat treatment on the mechanical performance of granite is analyzed at the center and the ends of specimen. At the free end of granite rock specimen, it is shown that from 20 °C to 500 °C, the internal stress and internal strain are weak; whereas above 500 °C, they start to increase rapidly, announcing the imminent collapse. At the center of specimen, the analysis of the internal stress and internal strain reveals that the fire reduces the mechanical performance of granite significantly. Moreover, it is found that after 3 min of exposure to fire, the mechanical energy necessary to fragment the granite can be reduced up to 80%.

  16. Modeling carbon-nutrient interactions during the early recovery of tundra after fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yueyang; Rastetter, Edward B; Rocha, Adrian V; Pearce, Andrea R; Kwiatkowski, Bonnie L; Shaver, Gaius R

    2015-09-01

    Fire frequency has dramatically increased in the tundra of northern Alaska, USA, which has major implications for the carbon budget of the region and the functioning of these ecosystems, which support important wildlife species. We investigated the postfire succession of plant and soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) fluxes and stocks along a burn severity gradient in the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska. Modeling results indicated that the early regrowth of postfire tundra vegetation was limited primarily by its canopy photosynthetic potential, rather than nutrient availability, because of the initially low leaf area and relatively high inorganic N and P concentrations in soil. Our simulations indicated that the postfire recovery of tundra vegetation was sustained predominantly by the uptake of residual inorganic N (i.e., in the remaining ash), and the redistribution of N and P from soil organic matter to vegetation. Although residual nutrients in ash were higher in the severe burn than the moderate burn, the moderate burn recovered faster because of the higher remaining biomass and consequent photosynthetic potential. Residual nutrients in ash allowed both burn sites to recover and exceed the unburned site in both aboveground biomass and production five years after the fire. The investigation of interactions among postfire C, N, and P cycles has contributed to a mechanistic understanding of the response of tundra ecosystems to fire disturbance. Our study provided insight on how the trajectory of recovery of tundra from wildfire is regulated during early succession.

  17. Development of a microbial contamination susceptibility model for private domestic groundwater sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hynds, Paul D.; Misstear, Bruce D.; Gill, Laurence W.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater quality analyses were carried out on samples from 262 private sources in the Republic of Ireland during the period from April 2008 to November 2010, with microbial quality assessed by thermotolerant coliform (TTC) presence. Assessment of potential microbial contamination risk factors was undertaken at all sources, and local meteorological data were also acquired. Overall, 28.9% of wells tested positive for TTC, with risk analysis indicating that source type (i.e., borehole or hand-dug well), local bedrock type, local subsoil type, groundwater vulnerability, septic tank setback distance, and 48 h antecedent precipitation were all significantly associated with TTC presence (p source-specific design parameters were also significantly associated with bacterial presence. Hierarchical logistic regression with stepwise parameter entry was used to develop a private well susceptibility model, with the final model exhibiting a mean predictive accuracy of >80% (TTC present or absent) when compared to an independent validation data set. Model hierarchies of primary significance are source design (20%), septic tank location (11%), hydrogeological setting (10%), and antecedent 120 h precipitation (2%). Sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of contamination is highly sensitive to septic tank setback distance, with probability increasing linearly with decreases in setback distance. Likewise, contamination probability was shown to increase with increasing antecedent precipitation. Results show that while groundwater vulnerability category is a useful indicator of aquifer susceptibility to contamination, its suitability with regard to source contamination is less clear. The final model illustrates that both localized (well-specific) and generalized (aquifer-specific) contamination mechanisms are involved in contamination events, with localized bypass mechanisms dominant. The susceptibility model developed here could be employed in the appropriate location

  18. Afforestation, subsequent forest fires and provision of hydrological services: a model-based analysis for a Mediterranean mountainous catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Naranjo Quintanilla, Paula; Santos, Juliana; Serpa, Dalila; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Rocha, João; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Keesstra, Saskia

    2017-04-01

    Mediterranean landscapes have experienced extensive abandonment and reforestation in recent decades, which should have improved the provision of hydrological services, such as flood mitigation, soil erosion protection and water quality regulation. However, these forests are fire-prone, and the post-fire increase in runoff, erosion and sediment exports could negatively affect service provision. This issue was assessed using the SWAT model for a small mountain agroforestry catchment, which was monitored between 2010 and 2014 and where some eucalypt stands burned in 2011 and were subsequently plowed for replanting. The model was calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment yield and erosion in agricultural fields and the burnt hillslopes, showing that it can be adapted for post-fire simulation. It was then used to perform a decadal assessment of surface runoff, erosion, and sediment exports between 2004 and 2014. Results show that the fire did not noticeably affect flood mitigation but that it increased erosion by 3 orders of magnitude, which subsequently increased sediment yield. Erosion in the burnt forest during this decade was one order of magnitude above that in agricultural fields. SWAT was also used to assess different fire and land-use scenarios during the same period. Results indicate that the impacts of fire were lower without post-fire soil management, and when the fire occurred in pine forests (i.e. before the 1990s) or in shrublands (i.e. before afforestation in the 1930s). These impacts were robust to changes in post-fire weather conditions and to a lower fire frequency (20-year intervals). The results suggest that, in the long term, fire-prone forests might not provide the anticipated soil protection and water quality regulation services in wet Mediterranean regions.

  19. Reducing the computational requirements for simulating tunnel fires by combining multiscale modelling and multiple processor calculation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Rein, Guillermo; Colella, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    in FDS version 6.0, a widely used fire-specific, open source CFD software. Furthermore, it compares the reduction in simulation time given by multiscale modelling with the one given by the use of multiple processor calculation. This was done using a 1200m long tunnel with a rectangular cross...... processor calculation (97% faster when using a single mesh and multiscale modelling; only 46% faster when using the full tunnel and multiple meshes). In summary, it was found that multiscale modelling with FDS v.6.0 is feasible, and the combination of multiple meshes and multiscale modelling was established...

  20. Finite element modelling of fire situations in UF6 transport containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basombrio, F.G.

    1996-01-01

    In this report we describe some runs made with the code FASES2. They concern different situations associated to fires originated by accidents in the transport of containers filled with UF6. Such situations have been inspired in cases taken from the current literature, and related to numerical modelling or experiments. We aim to consign the most relevant aspects of such runs, with the future purpose of comparing them with the predictions made with simpler lumped models. In such a way, it will be possible to calibrate the simple models with the results coming from detailed models. (author). 6 refs., 12 figs

  1. Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire

  2. An Information Perception-Based Emotion Contagion Model for Fire Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting Ting; Liu, Zhen; Ma, Minhua; Xuan, Rongrong; Chen, Tian; Lu, Tao; Yu, Lipeng

    2017-03-01

    In fires, people are easier to lose their mind. Panic will lead to irrational behavior and irreparable tragedy. It has great practical significance to make contingency plans for crowd evacuation in fires. However, existing studies about crowd simulation always paid much attention on the crowd density, but little attention on emotional contagion that may cause a panic. Based on settings about information space and information sharing, this paper proposes an emotional contagion model for crowd in panic situations. With the proposed model, a behavior mechanism is constructed for agents in the crowd and a prototype of system is developed for crowd simulation. Experiments are carried out to verify the proposed model. The results showed that the spread of panic not only related to the crowd density and the individual comfort level, but also related to people's prior knowledge of fire evacuation. The model provides a new way for safety education and evacuation management. It is possible to avoid and reduce unsafe factors in the crowd with the lowest cost.

  3. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Linden, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local...... field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from...... point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best “LFP proxy”, we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with “ground-truth” LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected...

  4. Effects of wildland fire smoke on a tree-roosting bat: integrating a plume model, field measurements, and mammalian dose-response relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.B. Dickinson; J.C. Norris; A.S. Bova; R.L. Kremens; V. Young; M.J. Lacki

    2010-01-01

    Faunal injury and mortality in wildland fires is a concern for wildlife and fire management although little work has been done on the mechanisms by which exposures cause their effects. In this paper, we use an integral plume model, field measurements, and models of carbon monoxide and heat effects to explore risk to tree-roosting bats during prescribed fires in mixed-...

  5. A Drosophila model for toxicogenomics: Genetic variation in susceptibility to heavy metal exposure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The genetic factors that give rise to variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins remain largely unexplored. Studies on genetic variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins are challenging in human populations, due to the variety of clinical symptoms and difficulty in determining which symptoms causally result from toxic exposure; uncontrolled environments, often with exposure to multiple toxicants; and difficulty in relating phenotypic effect size to toxic dose, especially when symptoms become manifest with a substantial time lag. Drosophila melanogaster is a powerful model that enables genome-wide studies for the identification of allelic variants that contribute to variation in susceptibility to environmental toxins, since the genetic background, environmental rearing conditions and toxic exposure can be precisely controlled. Here, we used extreme QTL mapping in an outbred population derived from the D. melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel to identify alleles associated with resistance to lead and/or cadmium, two ubiquitous environmental toxins that present serious health risks. We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs associated with variation in resistance to both heavy metals as well as SNPs associated with resistance specific to each of them. The effects of these SNPs were largely sex-specific. We applied mutational and RNAi analyses to 33 candidate genes and functionally validated 28 of them. We constructed networks of candidate genes as blueprints for orthologous networks of human genes. The latter not only provided functional contexts for known human targets of heavy metal toxicity, but also implicated novel candidate susceptibility genes. These studies validate Drosophila as a translational toxicogenomics gene discovery system.

  6. Use of fire spread and hydrology models to target forest management on a municipal watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anurag Srivastava; William J. Elliot; Joan Wu

    2015-01-01

    A small town relies on a forested watershed for its water supply. The forest is at risk for a wildfire. To reduce this risk, some of the watershed will be thinned followed by a prescribed burn. This paper reports on a study to evaluate the impact of such watershed disturbances on water yield. To target management activities, a fire spread model was applied to the...

  7. Using MOPITT data and a Chemistry and Transport Model to Investigate Injection Height of Plumes from Boreal Forest Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Allen, D. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Warner, J. X.

    2003-12-01

    Trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires are a significant factor in atmospheric composition and its interannual variability. A number of recent observations of emissions plumes above individual fire events (Fromm and Servranckx, 2003; COBRA 2003; Lamarque et al., 2003; Wotawa and Trainer, 2000) suggest that vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes can be very different from fossil fuel emission plumes. Understanding and constraining the vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes and their injection into the atmosphere during fire events is critical for accurate modeling of atmospheric transport and chemistry. While excellent data have been collected in a handful of experiments on individual fire events, a systematic examination of the range of behavior observed in fire events has been hampered by the scarcity of vertical profiles of atmospheric composition. In this study, we used a high-resolution model of boreal forest fire emissions (Kasischke et al, in review) as input to the Goddard/UM CTM driven by the GEOS-3 DAS, operating at 2 by 2.5 degrees with 35 vertical levels. We modeled atmospheric injection and transport of CO emissions during the fire season of 2000 (May-September). We altered the parameters of the model to simulate a range of scenarios of plume injection, and compared the resulting output to the CO profiles from the MOPITT instrument. The results presented here pertain to the boreal forest, but our methods should be useful for atmospheric modelers hoping to more realistically model transport of emission plumes from biomass burning. References: COBRA2003: see http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~cobra/smoke_canada_030530.pdf Fromm, M. and R. Servranckx, 2003. "Stratospheric Injection of Forest Fire Emissions on August 4, 1998: A Satellite Image Analysis of the Causal Supercell Convection." Geophysical Research Abstracts 5:13118. Kasischke, E.S.; E.J. Hyer, N.H.F. French, A.I. Sukhinin, J.H. Hewson, B.J. Stocks, in review. "Carbon

  8. Bayesian multinomial probit modeling of daily windows of susceptibility for maternal PM2.5 exposure and congenital heart defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Past epidemiologic studies suggest maternal ambient air pollution exposure during critical periods of the pregnancy is associated with fetal development. We introduce a multinomial probit model that allows for the joint identification of susceptible daily periods during the pregn...

  9. Global Lithospheric Apparent Susceptibility Distribution Converted from Geomagnetic Models by CHAMP and Swarm Satellite Magnetic Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinsong; Chen, Chao; Xiong, Xiong; Li, Yongdong; Liang, Qing

    2016-04-01

    Recently, because of continually accumulated magnetic measurements by CHAMP satellite and Swarm constellation of three satellites and well developed methodologies and techniques of data processing and geomagnetic field modeling etc., global lithospheric magnetic anomaly field models become more and more reliable. This makes the quantitative interpretation of lithospheric magnetic anomaly field possible for having an insight into large-scale magnetic structures in the crust and uppermost mantle. Many different approaches have been utilized to understand the magnetized sources, such as forward, inversion, statistics, correlation analysis, Euler deconvolution, signal transformations etc. Among all quantitative interpretation methods, the directly converting a magnetic anomaly map into a magnetic susceptibility anomaly map proposed by Arkani-Hamed & Strangway (1985) is, we think, the most fast quantitative interpretation tool for global studies. We just call this method AS85 hereinafter for short. Although Gubbins et al. (2011) provided a formula to directly calculate the apparent magnetic vector distribution, the AS85 method introduced constraints of magnetized direction and thus corresponding results are expected to be more robust especially in world-wide continents. Therefore, in this study, we first improved the AS85 method further considering non-axial dipolar inducing field using formulae by Nolte & Siebert (1987), initial model or priori information for starting coefficients in the apparent susceptibility conversion, hidden longest-wavelength components of lithospheric magnetic field and field contaminations from global oceanic remanent magnetization. Then, we used the vertically integrated susceptibility model by Hemant & Maus (2005) and vertically integrated remanent magnetization model by Masterton et al. (2013) to test the validity of our improved method. Subsequently, we applied the conversion method to geomagnetic field models by CHAMP and Swarm satellite

  10. REMOTE SENSING TECHNIQUES TO ASSESS POST-FIRE EFFECTS AT THE HILLSLOPE AND SUB-BASIN SCALES VIA MULTI-SCALE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Brook

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Post-fire environmental footprint is expected at varying scales in space and in time and demands development of multi-scale monitoring approaches. In this paper, a spatially and temporally explicit multi-scale model that reveals the physical and morphological indicators affecting hillslope susceptibility at varying scales, is explained and demonstrated. The qualitative and quantitative suitability classification procedures are adapted to translate the large-scale space-borne data supplied by satellite systems (Landsat OLS8 and Sentinel 2 and 3 to local scale produced by a regional airborne survey performed by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV. At the smallest spatial and temporal resolution, a daily airborne imagery collection by UAV is linked to micro-topography model, using statistical and mathematical approaches.

  11. Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

    2018-05-01

    Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high

  12. IoT-Based Intelligent Modeling of Smart Home Environment for Fire Prevention and Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Faisal Saeed; Anand Paul; Abdul Rehman; Won Hwa Hong; Hyuncheol Seo

    2018-01-01

    Fires usually occur in homes because of carelessness and changes in environmental conditions. They cause threats to the residential community and may result in human death and property damage. Consequently, house fires must be detected early to prevent these types of threats. The immediate notification of a fire is the most critical issue in domestic fire detection systems. Fire detection systems using wireless sensor networks sometimes do not detect a fire as a consequence of sensor failure....

  13. Classification Model for Forest Fire Hotspot Occurrences Prediction Using ANFIS Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijayanto, A. K.; Sani, O.; Kartika, N. D.; Herdiyeni, Y.

    2017-01-01

    This study proposed the application of data mining technique namely Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) on forest fires hotspot data to develop classification models for hotspots occurrence in Central Kalimantan. Hotspot is a point that is indicated as the location of fires. In this study, hotspot distribution is categorized as true alarm and false alarm. ANFIS is a soft computing method in which a given inputoutput data set is expressed in a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The FIS implements a nonlinear mapping from its input space to the output space. The method of this study classified hotspots as target objects by correlating spatial attributes data using three folds in ANFIS algorithm to obtain the best model. The best result obtained from the 3rd fold provided low error for training (error = 0.0093676) and also low error testing result (error = 0.0093676). Attribute of distance to road is the most determining factor that influences the probability of true and false alarm where the level of human activities in this attribute is higher. This classification model can be used to develop early warning system of forest fire.

  14. Using SEVIRI fire observations to drive smoke plumes in the CMAQ air quality model: the case of Antalya in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldassarre, G.; Pozzoli, L.; Schmidt, C. C.; Unal, A.; Kindap, T.; Menzel, W. P.; Whitburn, S.; Coheur, P.-F.; Kavgaci, A.; Kaiser, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    Among the atmospheric emission sources, wildfires are episodic events characterized by large spatial and temporal variability. Therefore, accurate information on fire gaseous and aerosol emissions for specific regions and seasons is critical for air quality forecasts. The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) in geostationary orbit provides fire observations over Africa and the Mediterranean with a unique temporal resolution of 15 min. It thus resolves the complete fire life cycle and captures the fires' peak intensities, which is not possible in MODIS-based fire emission inventories like GFAS. We evaluate two different operational Fire Radiative Power (FRP) products derived from SEVIRI, by studying the case of a large forest fire in Antalya, Turkey, in July-August 2008. The EUMETSAT LSA SAF product has higher FRP values during the fire episode than the WF_ABBA product. It is also in better agreement with the co-located, gridded MODIS FRP. Both products miss small fires that frequently occur in the region and are detected by MODIS. Emissions are derived from the FRP products. They are used along-side GFAS emissions in smoke plume simulations with WRF and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ). Comparisons with MODIS AOT and IASI CO and NH3 observations show that including the diurnal variability of fire emissions improves the spatial distribution and peak concentrations of the simulated smoke plumes associated to the large fire. They also show a large discrepancy between the currently available operational FRP products, with the LSA SAF one being the most appropriate.

  15. A MODEL OF THE INFLUENCES OF A FOREST FIRE ON ITS NEIGHBORHOODS AND RELATED RISK MANAGEMENT ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin POSEA

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The aim of the present paper is to produce a model for the propagation of a forest fire analyzing the influences that the fire zone has on its neighborhoods. The model is aMoore cellular automaton type. It depends on six parameters: the medium slope of the elementary cell, the layer type, and the burning time of the fuel, the fuel type, the wind direction and speed. In order to study the influences of various parameter configurations on the system of vicinities of a fire cell we construct some special directional correlation functions. An application is elaborated based on real data.

  16. A multiaxial constitutive model for concrete in the fire situation: Theoretical formulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gernay, Thomas; Millard, Alain; Franssen, Jean-Marc

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to develop a multiaxial concrete model for implementation in finite element software dedicated to the analysis of structures in fire. The need for proper concrete model remains a challenging task in structural fire engineering because of the complexity of the concrete mechanical behavior characterization and the severe requirements for the material models raised by the development of performance- based design. A fully three-dimensional model is developed based on the combination of elasto-plasticity and damage theories. The state of damage in concrete, assumed isotropic, is modeled by means of a fourth order damage tensor to capture the unilateral effect. The concrete model comprises a limited number of parameters that can be identified by three simple tests at ambient temperature. At high temperatures, a generic transient creep model is included to take into account explicitly the effect of transient creep strain. The numerical implementation of the concrete model in a finite element software is presented and a series of numerical simulations are conducted for validation. The concrete behavior is accurately captured in a large range of temperature and stress states. A limitation appears when modeling the concrete post-peak behavior in highly confined stress states, due to the coupling assumption between damage and plasticity, but the considered levels of triaxial confinement are unusual stress states in structural concrete. (authors)

  17. Towards a generic, reliable CFD modelling methodology for waste-fired grate boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajh, Boštjan; Yin, Chungen; Samec, Niko

    the appropriate inlet boundary condition for the freeboard 3D CFD simulation. Additionally, a refined WSGGM (weighted sum of gray gases model) of greater accuracy, completeness and applicability is proposed and implemented into the CFD model via user defined functions (UDF) to better address the impacts......Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is increasingly used in industry for detailed understanding of the combustion process and for appropriate design and optimization of Waste–to–Energy (WtE) plants. In this paper, CFD modelling of waste wood combustion in a 13 MW grate-fired boiler in a WtE plant...

  18. Leaky Integrate and Fire models coupled through copulas: association properties of the Interspike Intervals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sacerdote, Laura; Tamborrino, Massimiliano

    2010-01-01

    We propose a model able to describe the Interspike Intervals of two or more neurons subject to common inputs from the network. The single neuron dynamic is described through a classical Leaky Integrate and Fire model, but the model also catches the joint behavior of two neurons resorting to the u...... of copulas. Copulas are mathematical objects largely used to describe dependencies laws. Syn- chronous and delayed dependencies are considered by means of a set of examples. Results are discussed making use of crosscorrelograms....

  19. Evaluation of different machine learning models for predicting and mapping the susceptibility of gully erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Omid; Tahmasebipour, Nasser; Haghizadeh, Ali; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

    2017-12-01

    Gully erosion constitutes a serious problem for land degradation in a wide range of environments. The main objective of this research was to compare the performance of seven state-of-the-art machine learning models (SVM with four kernel types, BP-ANN, RF, and BRT) to model the occurrence of gully erosion in the Kashkan-Poldokhtar Watershed, Iran. In the first step, a gully inventory map consisting of 65 gully polygons was prepared through field surveys. Three different sample data sets (S1, S2, and S3), including both positive and negative cells (70% for training and 30% for validation), were randomly prepared to evaluate the robustness of the models. To model the gully erosion susceptibility, 12 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors. Finally, the goodness-of-fit and prediction skill of the models were evaluated by different criteria, including efficiency percent, kappa coefficient, and the area under the ROC curves (AUC). In terms of accuracy, the RF, RBF-SVM, BRT, and P-SVM models performed excellently both in the degree of fitting and in predictive performance (AUC values well above 0.9), which resulted in accurate predictions. Therefore, these models can be used in other gully erosion studies, as they are capable of rapidly producing accurate and robust gully erosion susceptibility maps (GESMs) for decision-making and soil and water management practices. Furthermore, it was found that performance of RF and RBF-SVM for modelling gully erosion occurrence is quite stable when the learning and validation samples are changed.

  20. Exploring the effect of absence selection on landslide susceptibility models: A case study in Sicily, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conoscenti, Christian; Rotigliano, Edoardo; Cama, Mariaelena; Caraballo-Arias, Nathalie Almaru; Lombardo, Luigi; Agnesi, Valerio

    2016-05-01

    A statistical approach was employed to model the spatial distribution of rainfall-triggered landslides in two areas in Sicily (Italy) that occurred during the winter of 2004-2005. The investigated areas are located within the Belice River basin and extend for 38.5 and 10.3 km2, respectively. A landslide inventory was established for both areas using two Google Earth images taken on October 25th 2004 and on March 18th 2005, to map slope failures activated or reactivated during this interval. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to prepare 5 m grids of the dependent variables (absence/presence of landslide) and independent variables (lithology and 13 DEM-derivatives). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were applied to model landslide susceptibility whereas receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate model performance. To evaluate the robustness of the whole procedure, we prepared 10 different samples of positive (landslide presence) and negative (landslide absence) cases for each area. Absences were selected through two different methods: (i) extraction from randomly distributed circles with a diameter corresponding to the mean width of the landslide source areas; and (ii) selection as randomly distributed individual grid cells. A comparison was also made between the predictive performances of models including and not including the lithology parameter. The models trained and tested on the same area demonstrated excellent to outstanding fit (AUC > 0.8). On the other hand, predictive skill decreases when measured outside the calibration area, although most of the landslides occur where susceptibility is high and the overall model performance is acceptable (AUC > 0.7). The results also showed that the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility models is higher when lithology is included in the statistical analysis. Models whose absences were selected using random circles showed a

  1. Satellite Characterization of Fire Emissions of Aerosols and Gases Relevant to Air-Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.; Yue, Y.; Wang, J.

    2015-12-01

    Because of the transient and widespread nature of wildfires and other types of open biomass burning, satellite remote sensing has become an indispensable technique for characterizing their smoke emissions for modeling applications, especially at regional to global scales. Fire radiative energy (FRE), whose instantaneous rate of release or fire radiative power (FRP) is measurable from space, has been found to be proportional to both the biomass consumption and emission of aerosol particulate matter. We have leveraged this relationship to generate a global, gridded smoke-aerosol emission coefficients (Ce) dataset based on FRP and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measurements from the MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. Ce is a simple coefficient to convert FRE to smoke aerosol emissions, in the same manner as traditional emission factors are used to convert burned biomass to emissions. The first version of this Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER.v1) global gridded Ce product at 1°x1° resolution is available at http://feer.gsfc.nasa.gov/. Based on published emission ratios, the FEER.v1 Ce product for total smoke aerosol has also been used to generate similar products for specific fire-emitted aerosols and gases, including those that are regulated as 'criteria pollutants' under the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), such as particulate matter (PM) and carbon monoxide (CO). These gridded Ce products were used in conjunction with satellite measurements of FRP to derive emissions of several smoke constituents, which were applied to WRF-Chem fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model simulations, with promising results. In this presentation, we analyze WRF-Chem simulations of surface-level concentrations of various pollutants based on FEER.v1 emission products to illustrate their value for air-quality modeling, particularly in parts of Africa and southeast Asia where ground-based air

  2. Improving freight fire safety : experiment testing and computer modeling to further development of mist-controlling additives for fire mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    With the purpose to minimize or prevent crash-induced fires in road and rail transportation, the : current interest in bio-derived and blended transportation fuels is increasing. Based on two years : of preliminary testing and analysis, it appears to...

  3. Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke-FCAMMS: a National Paradigm for Wildland Fire and Smoke Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. R. Riebau; D. G. Fox

    2003-01-01

    Fires can be catastrophic, but only when the weather permits. Predicting the weather more than a few hours into the future with accuracy, precision and reliability is an on-going challenge to researchers. Accurate and precise forecasting for more than a few hours into the future has been virtually unrealizable until the latter half of the 20th Century. In the modern...

  4. Optimizing landslide susceptibility zonation: Effects of DEM spatial resolution and slope unit delineation on logistic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlögel, R.; Marchesini, I.; Alvioli, M.; Reichenbach, P.; Rossi, M.; Malet, J.-P.

    2018-01-01

    We perform landslide susceptibility zonation with slope units using three digital elevation models (DEMs) of varying spatial resolution of the Ubaye Valley (South French Alps). In so doing, we applied a recently developed algorithm automating slope unit delineation, given a number of parameters, in order to optimize simultaneously the partitioning of the terrain and the performance of a logistic regression susceptibility model. The method allowed us to obtain optimal slope units for each available DEM spatial resolution. For each resolution, we studied the susceptibility model performance by analyzing in detail the relevance of the conditioning variables. The analysis is based on landslide morphology data, considering either the whole landslide or only the source area outline as inputs. The procedure allowed us to select the most useful information, in terms of DEM spatial resolution, thematic variables and landslide inventory, in order to obtain the most reliable slope unit-based landslide susceptibility assessment.

  5. Investigating and modeling of the effects of condensate storage tank fire in a refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Kamaei

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background & objective: Oil storage tanks are major industrial facilities which always pose risks of toxic substance release, fires and explosions. Fire has been recognized as the most common risk associated with such facilities, while explosion is the most important one in terms of ability to claim human lives and damage property. The current study aimed at investigating and modeling the effects of fires occurring in a gas condensate tank farm, according to which the level of possible emergencies were specified using the guidelines provided by the Center for Chemical Process Safety. Lastly, control measures were recommended. Methods: In the present study, the release and leakage of gas condensate from floating roof tanks were assessed using HAZOP method. Then, using PHAST software, the amount of radiation intensity received by the surrounding environment was determined, safe boundaries were computed, and according to the CCPS standard the emergency levels were determined. Results: modeling was performed based on the maximum capacity of tanks for both cold and hot seasons. The results revealed that safe distance for a maximum amount of irradiation density (4 KW/m2 related to a sudden release were 60 and 140 meters, respectively. Conclusion: according to the current condition of the plants and storage tanks, a plan was recommended for emergency management and practical suggestions were provided to improve the reliability and consistency.

  6. Combining Multi-Sensor Measurements and Models to Constrain Time-Varying Aerosol Fire Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, J. B.

    2013-12-01

    A significant portion of global Black Carbon (BC) and Organic Carbon (OC) aerosols are emitted into the atmosphere due to fires. However, due to their spatially and temporally heterogeneous nature, quantifying these emissions has proven to be difficult. Some of the problems stem from variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales: ranging from kilometers in size to thousands of kilometers in impact, and from month-to-month variations in the burning season to interannual variation in overall fire strength which follows such global phenomena as El-Nino. Yet, because of the unique absorbing properties that these aerosols have, they leave a distinct impact on the regional and global climate system, as well as the ability to intensely impact human health in downwind areas, proper quantification of the emissions is absolutely essential. To achieve such a critical understanding of their emissions in space and time, a start-of-the art modelling system of their chemical and physical processing, transport, and removal is implemented. This system is capable of effectively and uniquely simulating many impacts important in the atmosphere, including: enhanced absorption associated with internal mixing, mass and number conservation, the direct and semi-direct effects on atmospheric dynamics and circulation, and appropriate non-linear consideration of urban-scale chemical and physical processing. This modelling system has been used in connection with 3 separate sources of data, to achieve an end product that is heavily dependent on both. First of all, the model has been run in a data-assimilation mode to constrain the annual-average emissions of BC using the Kalman Filter technique. This global constraint, the first of its type, relies heavily on ground-based sensors from NASA as well as other organizations. Secondly, data of the decadal-scale variation in aerosol optical depth, surface reflectance, and radiative power have been obtained from the MODIS and MISR sensors

  7. Discrete-time dynamic network model for the spread of susceptible-infective-recovered diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, Sanjeev Kumar

    2017-07-01

    We propose a discrete-time dynamic network model describing the spread of susceptible-infective-recovered diseases in a population. We consider the case in which the nodes in the network change their links due to social mixing dynamics as well as in response to the disease. The model shows the behavior that, as we increase social mixing, disease spread is inhibited in certain cases, while in other cases it is enhanced. We also extend this dynamic network model to take into account the case of hidden infection. Here we find that, as expected, the disease spreads more readily if there is a time period after contracting the disease during which an individual is infective but is not known to have the disease.

  8. A fire model with distinct crop, pasture, and non-agricultural burning: use of new data and a model-fitting algorithm for FINAL.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam S.; Ward, Daniel S.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Magi, Brian I.; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.

    2018-03-01

    This study describes and evaluates the Fire Including Natural & Agricultural Lands model (FINAL) which, for the first time, explicitly simulates cropland and pasture management fires separately from non-agricultural fires. The non-agricultural fire module uses empirical relationships to simulate burned area in a quasi-mechanistic framework, similar to past fire modeling efforts, but with a novel optimization method that improves the fidelity of simulated fire patterns to new observational estimates of non-agricultural burning. The agricultural fire components are forced with estimates of cropland and pasture fire seasonality and frequency derived from observational land cover and satellite fire datasets. FINAL accurately simulates the amount, distribution, and seasonal timing of burned cropland and pasture over 2001-2009 (global totals: 0.434×106 and 2.02×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 0.454×106 and 2.04×106 km2 yr-1 observed), but carbon emissions for cropland and pasture fire are overestimated (global totals: 0.295 and 0.706 PgC yr-1 modeled, 0.194 and 0.538 PgC yr-1 observed). The non-agricultural fire module underestimates global burned area (1.91×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 2.44×106 km2 yr-1 observed) and carbon emissions (1.14 PgC yr-1 modeled, 1.84 PgC yr-1 observed). The spatial pattern of total burned area and carbon emissions is generally well reproduced across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Central Asia, and Australia, whereas the boreal zone sees underestimates. FINAL represents an important step in the development of global fire models, and offers a strategy for fire models to consider human-driven fire regimes on cultivated lands. At the regional scale, simulations would benefit from refinements in the parameterizations and improved optimization datasets. We include an in-depth discussion of the lessons learned from using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in an interactive optimization for a dynamic global vegetation model.

  9. High temperature series expansions for the susceptibility of Ising model on the Kagome lattice with nearest neighber interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Jalali mola

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available  The Ising model is one of the simplest models describing the interacting particles. In this work, we calculate the high temperature series expansions of zero field susceptibility of ising model with ferromagnetic, antiferromagnetic and one antiferromagnetic interactions on two dimensional kagome lattice. Using the Pade´ approximation, we calculate the susceptibility of critical exponent of ferromagnetic ising model γ ≈ 1.75, which is consistent with universality hypothesis. However, antiferromagnetic and one antiferromagnetic interaction ising model doesn’t show any transition at finite temperature because of the effect of magnetic frustration.

  10. Static quadrupolar susceptibility for a Blume–Emery–Griffiths model based on the mean-field approximation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawlak, A., E-mail: pawlak@amu.edu.pl [Faculty of Physics, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 85, 61–614 Poznań (Poland); Gülpınar, G. [Department of Physics, Dokuz Eylül University, 35160 İzmir (Turkey); Erdem, R. [Department of Physics, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya (Turkey); Ağartıoğlu, M. [Institute of Science, Dokuz Eylül University, 35160 İzmir (Turkey)

    2015-12-01

    The expressions for the dipolar and quadrupolar susceptibilities are obtained within the mean-field approximation in the Blume–Emery–Griffiths model. Temperature as well as crystal field dependences of the susceptibilities are investigated for two different phase diagram topologies which take place for K/J=3 and K/J=5.0.Their behavior near the second and first order transition points as well as multi-critical points such as tricritical, triple and critical endpoint is presented. It is found that in addition to the jumps connected with the phase transitions there are broad peaks in the quadrupolar susceptibility. It is indicated that these broad peaks lie on a prolongation of the first-order line from a triple point to a critical point ending the line of first-order transitions between two distinct paramagnetic phases. It is argued that the broad peaks are a reminiscence of very strong quadrupolar fluctuations at the critical point. The results reveal the fact that near ferromagnetic–paramagnetic phase transitions the quadrupolar susceptibility generally shows a jump whereas near the phase transition between two distinct paramagnetic phases it is an edge-like. - Highlights: • MFA calculation of the quadrupolar and dipolar susceptibility in BEG model is given • The crystal-field variation of susceptibilities near the multi-critical points is examined • There are broad peaks in the quadrupolar susceptibility in the vicinity of CP • These maxima are remembrances of the very strong quadrupolar Fluctuations.

  11. Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, K.; Kasischke, E. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Turetsky, M. R.; Kane, E. S.

    2010-01-01

    Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface

  12. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D.; Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T.; Husted, B.; Magnusson, T.; Joerud, F.

    2013-05-01

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  13. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  14. Modeling of biomass smoke injection into the lower stratosphere by a large forest fire (Part II: sensitivity studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Luderer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Chisholm forest fire that burned in Alberta, Canada, in May 2001 resulted in injection of substantial amounts of smoke into the lower stratosphere. We used the cloud-resolving plume model ATHAM (Active Tracer High resolution Atmospheric Model to investigate the importance of different contributing factors to the severe intensification of the convection induced by the Chisholm fire and the subsequent injection of biomass smoke into the lower stratosphere. The simulations show strong sensitivity of the pyro-convection to background meteorology. This explains the observed coincidence of the convective blow-up of the fire plume and the passage of a synoptic cold front. Furthermore, we performed model sensitivity studies to the rate of release of sensible heat and water vapor from the fire. The release of sensible heat by the fire plays a dominant role for the dynamic development of the pyro-cumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb and the height to which smoke is transported. The convection is very sensitive to the heat flux from the fire. The emissions of water vapor play a less significant role for the injection height but enhance the amount of smoke transported beyond the tropopause level. The aerosol burden in the plume has a strong impact on the microphysical structure of the resulting convective cloud. The dynamic evolution of the pyroCb, however, is only weakly sensitive to the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN from the fire. In contrast to previous findings by other studies of convective clouds, we found that fire CCN have a negative effect on the convection dynamics because they give rise to a delay in the freezing of cloud droplets. Even in a simulation without fire CCN, there is no precipitation formation within the updraft region of the pyroCb. Enhancement of convection by aerosols as reported from studies of other cases of convection is therefore not found in our study.

  15. Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Eva Karau

    2010-01-01

    Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology...

  16. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  17. Modeling post-fire woody carbon dynamics with data from remeasured inventory plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Jeremy Fried; Vicente Monleon

    2015-01-01

    In California, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots within large fires were visited one year after the fire occurred resulting in a time series of measurements before and after fire. During this additional plot visit, the standard inventory measurements were augmented for these burned plots to assess fire effects. One example of the additional measurements is...

  18. Assessment of the FARSITE model for predicting fire behavior in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross J. Phillips; Thomas A. Waldrop; Dean M. Simon

    2006-01-01

    Fuel reduction treatments are necessary in fire-adapted ecosystems where fire has been excluded for decades and the potential for severe wildfire is high. Using the Fire Area Simulator, FARSITE, we examined the spatial and temporal effects of these treatments on fire behavior in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. With measurements from temperature sensors during...

  19. Modelling of limestone injection for SO2 capture in a coal fired utility boiler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacik, G.J.; Reid, K.; McDonald, M.M.; Knill, K.

    1997-01-01

    A computer model was developed for simulating furnace sorbent injection for SO 2 capture in a full scale utility boiler using TASCFlow TM computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software. The model makes use of a computational grid of the superheater section of a tangentially fired utility boiler. The computer simulations are three dimensional so that the temperature and residence time distribution in the boiler could be realistically represented. Results of calculations of simulated sulphur capture performance of limestone injection in a typical utility boiler operation were presented

  20. Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

    2010-01-01

    This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

  1. Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A. Spies

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than

  2. Characterizing and modeling of an 88 MW grate-fired boiler burning wheat straw: Experience and lessons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Clausen, Sønnik

    2012-01-01

    an acceptable agreement. The discrepancies are analyzed from different aspects. The lessons learned and experience gained from this and other case studies are summarized and discussed in detail, which can facilitate the modeling validation effort as well as improve grate-firing technology. Some of the addressed......Grate-firing is one of the main technologies currently used for biomass combustion for heat and power production. However, grate-firing is yet to be further developed, towards a better technology for biomass combustion, particularly towards higher efficiency, lower emissions, and better reliability...

  3. On the critical behavior of the inverse susceptibility of a model of structural phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pisanova, E.S.; Ivanov, S.I.

    2013-01-01

    An exactly solvable lattice model describing structural phase transitions in an anharmonic crystal with long-range interaction is considered in the neighborhoods of the quantum and classical critical points at the corresponding upper critical dimensions. In a broader neighborhood of the critical region the inverse susceptibility of the model is exactly calculated in terms of the Lambert W-function and graphically presented as a function of the deviation from the critical point and the upper critical dimension. For quantum and classical systems with real physical dimensions (chains, thin layers and three-dimensional systems) the exact results are compared with the asymptotic ones on the basis of some numerical data for their ratio. Relative errors are also provided

  4. Boreal forest fires in 1997 and 1998: a seasonal comparison using transport model simulations and measurement data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Spichtinger

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest fire emissions have a strong impact on the concentrations of trace gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. In order to quantify the influence of boreal forest fire emissions on the atmospheric composition, the fire seasons of 1997 and 1998 are compared in this paper. Fire activity in 1998 was very strong, especially over Canada and Eastern Siberia, whereas it was much weaker in 1997. According to burned area estimates the burning in 1998 was more than six times as intense as in 1997. Based on hot spot locations derived from ATSR (Along Track Scanning Radiometer data and official burned area data, fire emissions were estimated and their transport was simulated with a Lagrangian tracer transport model. Siberian and Canadian forest fire tracers were distinguished to investigate the transport of both separately. The fire emissions were transported even over intercontinental distances. Due to the El Niño induced meteorological situation, transport from Siberia to Canada was enhanced in 1998. Siberian fire emissions were transported towards Canada and contributed concentrations more than twice as high as those due to Canada's own CO emissions by fires. In 1998 both tracers arrive at higher latitudes over Europe, which is due to a higher North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index in 1998. The simulated emission plumes are compared to CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory CO2 and CO data, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS aerosol index (AI data and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME tropospheric NO2 and HCHO columns. All the data show clearly enhanced signals during the burning season of 1998 compared to 1997. The results of the model simulation are in good agreement with ground-based as well as satellite-based measurements.

  5. Landslide susceptibility mapping in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq: a comparison of different statistical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, A. A.; Gloaguen, R.; Andreani, L.; Rahnama, M.

    2015-03-01

    During the last decades, expansion of settlements into areas prone to landslides in Iraq has increased the importance of accurate hazard assessment. Susceptibility mapping provides information about hazardous locations and thus helps to potentially prevent infrastructure damage due to mass wasting. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare frequency ratio (FR), weight of evidence (WOE), logistic regression (LR) and probit regression (PR) approaches in combination with new geomorphological indices to determine the landslide susceptibility index (LSI). We tested these four methods in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq, where landslides occur frequently. For this purpose, we evaluated 16 geomorphological, geological and environmental predicting factors mainly derived from the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) satellite. The available reference inventory includes 351 landslides representing a cumulative surface of 3.127 km2. This reference inventory was mapped from QuickBird data by manual delineation and partly verified by field survey. The areas under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and relative landslide density (R index) show that all models perform similarly and that focus should be put on the careful selection of proxies. The results indicate that the lithology and the slope aspects play major roles for landslide occurrences. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that using hypsometric integral as a prediction factor instead of slope curvature gives better results and increases the accuracy of the LSI.

  6. Population density models of integrate-and-fire neurons with jumps: well-posedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, Grégory; Henry, Jacques

    2013-09-01

    In this paper we study the well-posedness of different models of population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with a population density approach. The synaptic interaction between neurons is modeled by a potential jump at the reception of a spike. We study populations that are self excitatory or self inhibitory. We distinguish the cases where this interaction is instantaneous from the one where there is a repartition of conduction delays. In the case of a bounded density of delays both excitatory and inhibitory population models are shown to be well-posed. But without conduction delay the solution of the model of self excitatory neurons may blow up. We analyze the different behaviours of the model with jumps compared to its diffusion approximation.

  7. Online Monitoring System of Air Distribution in Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler Based on Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Żymełka, Piotr; Nabagło, Daniel; Janda, Tomasz; Madejski, Paweł

    2017-12-01

    Balanced distribution of air in coal-fired boiler is one of the most important factors in the combustion process and is strongly connected to the overall system efficiency. Reliable and continuous information about combustion airflow and fuel rate is essential for achieving optimal stoichiometric ratio as well as efficient and safe operation of a boiler. Imbalances in air distribution result in reduced boiler efficiency, increased gas pollutant emission and operating problems, such as corrosion, slagging or fouling. Monitoring of air flow trends in boiler is an effective method for further analysis and can help to appoint important dependences and start optimization actions. Accurate real-time monitoring of the air distribution in boiler can bring economical, environmental and operational benefits. The paper presents a novel concept for online monitoring system of air distribution in coal-fired boiler based on real-time numerical calculations. The proposed mathematical model allows for identification of mass flow rates of secondary air to individual burners and to overfire air (OFA) nozzles. Numerical models of air and flue gas system were developed using software for power plant simulation. The correctness of the developed model was verified and validated with the reference measurement values. The presented numerical model for real-time monitoring of air distribution is capable of giving continuous determination of the complete air flows based on available digital communication system (DCS) data.

  8. Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

    2017-04-08

    An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

  9. Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Song

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR, which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

  10. Application of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System to measure impacts of forest fire on watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Precipitation in the southwestern United States falls primarily in areas of higher elevation. Drought conditions over the past five years have limited snowpack and rainfall, increasing the vulnerability to and frequency of forest fires in these montane regions. In June 2012, the Little Bear fire burned approximately 69 square miles (44,200 acres) in high-elevation forests of the Rio Hondo headwater catchments, south-central New Mexico. Burn severity was high or moderate on 53 percent of the burn area. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) is a publically-available watershed model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). PRMS data are spatially distributed using a 'Geospatial Fabric' developed at a national scale to define Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), based on topography and points of interest (such as confluences and streamgages). The Little Bear PRMS study area is comprised of 22 HRUs over a 587 square-mile area contributing to the Rio Hondo above Chavez Canyon streamgage (USGS ID 08390020), in operation from 2008 to 2014. Model input data include spatially-distributed climate data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) DayMet and land cover (such as vegetation and soil properties) data from the USGS Geo Data Portal. Remote sensing of vegetation over time has provided a spatial distribution of recovery and has been applied using dynamic parameters within PRMS on the daily timestep over the study area. Investigation into the source and timing of water budget components in the Rio Hondo watershed may assist water planners and managers in determining how the surface-water and groundwater systems will react to future land use/land cover changes. Further application of PRMS in additional areas will allow for comparison of streamflow before and following wildfire conditions, and may lead to better understanding of the changes in watershed-scale hydrologic processes in the Southwest through post-fire watershed recovery.

  11. Stability Analysis Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) Model for Spread Model for Spread of Dengue Fever in Medan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Side, Syafruddin; Molliq Rangkuti, Yulita; Gerhana Pane, Dian; Setia Sinaga, Marlina

    2018-01-01

    Dengue fever is endemic disease which spread through vector, Aedes Aegypty. This disease is found more than 100 countries, such as, United State, Africa as well Asia, especially in country that have tropic climate. Mathematical modeling in this paper, discusses the speed of the spread of dengue fever. The model adopting divided over four classes, such as Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I) and Recovered (R). SEIR model further analyzed to detect the re-breeding value based on the number reported case by dengue in Medan city. Analysis of the stability of the system in this study is asymptotically stable indicating a case of endemic and unstable that show cases the endemic cases. Simulation on the mathematical model of SEIR showed that require a very long time to produce infected humans will be free of dengue virus infection. This happens because of dengue virus infection that occurs continuously between human and vector populations.

  12. Silencing of flavanone-3-hydroxylase in apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) leads to accumulation of flavanones, but not to reduced fire blight susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flachowsky, Henryk; Halbwirth, Heidi; Treutter, Dieter; Richter, Klaus; Hanke, Magda-Viola; Szankowski, Iris; Gosch, Christian; Stich, Karl; Fischer, Thilo C

    2012-02-01

    Transgenic antisense flavanone-3-hydroxylase apple plants were produced to mimic the effect of the agrochemical prohexadione-Ca on apple leaves. This enzyme inhibitor for 2-oxoglutarate dependent dioxygenases is used as a growth retardant and for control of secondary fire blight of leaves. Like using the agent, silencing of flavanone-3-hydroxylase leads to an accumulation of flavanones in leaves, but in contrast not to the formation of 3-deoxyflavonoids. In prohexadione-Ca treated leaves the 3-deoxyflavonoid luteoforol is formed from accumulating flavanones, acting as an antimicrobial compound against the fire blight pathogen Erwinia amylovora. Seemingly, the silencing of just one of the 2-oxoglutarate dependent dioxygenases (in apple also flavonol synthase and anthocyanidin synthase take part downstream in the pathway) does not provide a sufficiently high ratio of flavanones to dihydroflavonols. This seems to be needed to let the dihydroflavonol-4-reductase/flavanone-4-reductase enzyme reduce flavanones to luteoforol, and to let this be reduced by the leucoanthocyanidin-4-reductase/3-deoxyleucoanthocyanidin-4-reductase, each acting with their respective weak secondary activities. Accordingly, also the intended inducible resistance to fire blight by prohexadione-Ca is not observed with the antisense flavanone-3-hydroxylase apple plants. On the other hand, for most transgenic lines with strong flavanone-4-reductase down-regulation, up-regulation of gene expression for the other flavonoid genes was found. This provides further evidence for the feedback regulation of flavonoid gene expression having been previously reported for the prohexadione-Ca inhibited apple plants. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Optimized CO2-flue gas separation model for a coal fired power plant

    OpenAIRE

    Udara S. P. R. Arachchige, Muhammad Mohsin, Morten C. Melaaen

    2013-01-01

    The detailed description of the CO2 removal process using mono-ethylamine (MEA) as a solvent for coal-fired power plant is present in this paper. The rate based Electrolyte NRTL activity coefficient model was used in the Aspen Plus. The complete removal process with re-circulating solvent back to the absorber was implemented with the sequential modular method in Aspen Plus. The most significant cost related to CO2 capture is the energy requirement for re-generating solvent, i.e. re-boiler dut...

  14. Attachments for fire modeling for Building 221-T, T Plant canyon deck and railroad tunnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oar, D.L.

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this attachment is to provide historical information and documentation for Document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-008 Rev 0, ''Fire Modeling for Building 221-T--T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel'', dated September 29, 1994. This data compilation contains the following: Resumes of the Technical Director, Senior Engineer and Junior Engineer; Review and Comment Record; Software Files; CFAST Input and Output Files; Calculation Control Sheets; and Estimating Sprinkler Actuation Time in the Canyon and Railroad Tunnel. The T Plant was originally a fuel reprocessing facility. It was modified later to decontaminate and repair PuRex process equipment

  15. Attachments for fire modeling for Building 221-T, T Plant canyon deck and railroad tunnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oar, D.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States)

    1995-01-23

    The purpose of this attachment is to provide historical information and documentation for Document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-008 Rev 0, ``Fire Modeling for Building 221-T--T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel``, dated September 29, 1994. This data compilation contains the following: Resumes of the Technical Director, Senior Engineer and Junior Engineer; Review and Comment Record; Software Files; CFAST Input and Output Files; Calculation Control Sheets; and Estimating Sprinkler Actuation Time in the Canyon and Railroad Tunnel. The T Plant was originally a fuel reprocessing facility. It was modified later to decontaminate and repair PuRex process equipment.

  16. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.

    1989-10-01

    The general goal of this research project is to enhance, and transfer to DOE, a new computer simulation model for analyzing the performance and cost of environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants. Systems utilizing pre-combustion, combustion, or post-combustion control methods, individually or in combination, may be considered. A unique capability of this model is the probabilistic representation of uncertainty in model input parameters. This stochastic simulation capability allows the performance and cost of environmental control systems to be quantified probabilistically, accounting for the interactions among all uncertain process and economic parameters. This method facilitates more rigorous comparisons between conventional and advanced clean coal technologies promising improved cost and/or effectiveness for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} removal. Detailed modeling of several pre-combustion and post-combustion processes of interest to DOE/PETC have been selected for analysis as part of this project.

  17. Modelling of the behaviour of a UF6 container in a fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinton, Eric

    1996-01-01

    This thesis is justified by the safety needs about storage and transport of UF 6 containers. To define their behaviour under fire conditions, a modelling was developed. Before tackling the numerical modelling, a phenomenological interpretation with experimental results of containers inside a furnace (800 C) during a fixed period was carried out. The internal heat transfers were considerably improved with these results. The 2D elaborated model takes into account most of the physical phenomena encountered in this type of situation (boiling, evaporation, condensation, radiant heat transfers through an absorbing gas, convection, pressurisation, thermal contact resistance, UF 6 expansion, solid core sinking in the liquid, elastic and plastic deformations of the steel container). This model was successfully confronted with experiments. (author) [fr

  18. Modeling of ferric sulfate decomposition and sulfation of potassium chloride during grate‐firing of biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Hao; Jespersen, Jacob Boll; Jappe Frandsen, Flemming

    2013-01-01

    Ferric sulfate is used as an additive in biomass combustion to convert the released potassium chloride to the less harmful potassium sulfate. The decomposition of ferric sulfate is studied in a fast heating rate thermogravimetric analyzer and a volumetric reaction model is proposed to describe...... the process. The yields of sulfur oxides from ferric sulfate decomposition under boiler conditions are investigated experimentally, revealing a distribution of approximately 40% SO3 and 60% SO2. The ferric sulfate decomposition model is combined with a detailed kinetic model of gas‐phase KCl sulfation...... and a model of K2SO4 condensation to simulate the sulfation of KCl by ferric sulfate addition. The simulation results show good agreements with experiments conducted in a biomass grate‐firing reactor. The results indicate that the SO3 released from ferric sulfate decomposition is the main contributor to KCl...

  19. Modeling of sulfation of potassium chloride by ferric sulfate addition during grate-firing of biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Hao; Jespersen, Jacob Boll; Aho, Martti

    2013-01-01

    Potassium chloride, KCl, formed from critical ash-forming elements released during combustion may lead to severe ash deposition and corrosion problems in biomass-fired boilers. Ferric sulfate, Fe2(SO4)3 is an effective additive, which produces sulfur oxides (SO2 and SO3) to convert KCl to the less...... harmful K2SO4. In the present study the decomposition of ferric sulfate is studied in a fast-heating rate thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA), and a kinetic model is proposed to describe the decomposition process. The yields of SO2 and SO3 from ferric sulfate decomposition are investigated in a laboratory......-scale tube reactor. It is revealed that approximately 40% of the sulfur is released as SO3, the remaining fraction being released as SO2. The proposed decomposition model of ferric sulfate is combined with a detailed gas phase kinetic model of KCl sulfation, and a simplified model of K2SO4 condensation...

  20. Effective spreading from multiple leaders identified by percolation in the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Shenggong; Lü, Linyuan; Yeung, Chi Ho; Hu, Yanqing

    2017-07-01

    Social networks constitute a new platform for information propagation, but its success is crucially dependent on the choice of spreaders who initiate the spreading of information. In this paper, we remove edges in a network at random and the network segments into isolated clusters. The most important nodes in each cluster then form a set of influential spreaders, such that news propagating from them would lead to extensive coverage and minimal redundancy. The method utilizes the similarities between the segmented networks before percolation and the coverage of information propagation in each social cluster to obtain a set of distributed and coordinated spreaders. Our tests of implementing the susceptible-infected-recovered model on Facebook and Enron email networks show that this method outperforms conventional centrality-based methods in terms of spreadability and coverage redundancy. The suggested way of identifying influential spreaders thus sheds light on a new paradigm of information propagation in social networks.

  1. Multi-Physics Modeling of Fire-Induced Damage in High-Performance Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Lammi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The response of high-performance concrete (HPC to rapid heating due to exposure to fire with air temperatures exceeding 700°C is analyzed. The analysis focuses on coupled thermal-mechanical-transport processes at the mesoscale in the first 10 minutes of exposure during which heating rates on the order of 10 °C/minute and temperature gradients on the order of 15 °C/cm are involved. The driving forces for damage considered are thermomechanical stresses and internal pore pressure resulting from the expansion of water within the material. The HPC is modeled as a two-phase composite consisting of a cementitious matrix and a population of quartz aggregate particles. Mesostructures with aggregate sizes of 400-1600 μm and aggregate volume fractions of 10-30% are considered. To capture the development of stresses and pore pressure, the cementitious matrix is modeled using a coupled thermal-mechanical-transport formulation and the aggregate is modeled using a thermal-mechanical formulation. Simulations show that the composition of the mesostructures significantly influences the time and spatial distribution of damage. Materials with smaller aggregate sizes and the lower effective permeability are found to exhibit more rapid property degradation. The time to failure and depth of thermal spall are quantified as functions of structural variables. This framework and the mesostructure-response relations obtained serves as a tool for the design of HPC that are more resistant to fire-induced damage.

  2. A project in two parts: Developing fire histories for the eastern U.S. and creating a climate-based continental fire frequency model to fill data gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard Guyette; Michael Stambaugh; Daniel. Dey

    2011-01-01

    Tree-ring dated fire scars provide long-term records of fire frequency, giving land managers valuable baseline information about the fire regimes that existed prior to Euro-American settlement. However, for the East, fire history data prove difficult to acquire because the generally moister climate of the region causes rapid decay of wood. In an endeavor to fill data...

  3. Development and demonstration of smoke plume, fire emissions, and pre- and postprescribed fire fuel models on North Carolina Coastal Plain forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert A. Mickler; Miriam Rorig; Christopher D. Geron; Gary L. Achtemier; Andrew D. Bailey; Candice Krull; David Brownlie

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fuels have been accumulating in the United States during at least the past half-century due to wildland fire management practices and policies. The additional fuels contribute to intense fire behavior, increase the costs of wildland fire control, and contribute to the degradation of local and regional air quality. The management of prescribed and wildland fire...

  4. Fire History

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The Fire Perimeters data consists of CDF fires 300 acres and greater in size and USFS fires 10 acres and greater throughout California from 1950 to 2002. Some fires...

  5. Fire Perimeters

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The Fire Perimeters data consists of CDF fires 300 acres and greater in size and USFS fires 10 acres and greater throughout California from 1950 to 2003. Some fires...

  6. Fire Perimeters

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Fire Perimeters data consists of CDF fires 300 acres and greater in size and USFS fires 10 acres and greater throughout California from 1950 to 2003. Some fires...

  7. Fire History

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Fire Perimeters data consists of CDF fires 300 acres and greater in size and USFS fires 10 acres and greater throughout California from 1950 to 2002. Some fires...

  8. Alternative states and population crashes in a resource-susceptible-infected model for planktonic parasites and hosts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerla, D.J.; Gsell, A.S.; Kooi, B.W.; Ibelings, B.W.; Donk, van E.; Mooij, W.M.

    2013-01-01

    1. Despite the strong impact parasites can have, only few models of phytoplankton ecology or aquatic food webs have specifically included parasitism. 2. Here, we provide a susceptible-infected model for a diatom-chytrid hostparasite system that explicitly includes nutrients, infected and uninfected

  9. The spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility applying artificial neural network and logistic regression models: A case study of Inje, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saro, Lee; Woo, Jeon Seong; Kwan-Young, Oh; Moung-Jin, Lee

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs) followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS). These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50%) and a test set (50%). A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10%) was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%). Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, `slope' yielded the highest weight value (1.330), and `aspect' yielded the lowest value (1.000). This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.

  10. Assessment of erosion hazard after recurrence fires with the RUSLE 3D MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecín-Arias, Daniel; Palencia, Covadonga; Fernández Raga, María

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this work is to calculate if there is more soil erosion after the recurrence of several forest fires on an area. To that end, it has been studied an area of 22 130 ha because has a high frequency of fires. This area is located in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula. The assessment of erosion hazard was calculated in several times using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).The area have been divided into several plots according to the number of times they have been burnt in the past 15 years. Due to the complexity that has to make a detailed study of a so large field and that there are not information available anually, it is necessary to select the more interesting moments. In august 2012 it happened the most agressive and extensive fire of the area. So the study was focused on the erosion hazard for 2011 and 2014, because they are the date before and after from the fire of 2012 in which there are orthophotos available. RUSLE3D model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) was used to calculate maps erosion losses. This model improves the traditional USLE (Wischmeier and D., 1965) because it studies the influence of the concavity / convexity (Renard et al., 1997), and improves the estimation of the slope factor LS (Renard et al., 1991). It is also one of the most commonly used models in literatura (Mitasova et al., 1996; Terranova et al., 2009). The tools used are free and accessible, using GIS "gvSIG" (http://www.gvsig.com/es) and the metadata were taken from Spatial Data Infrastructure of Spain webpage (IDEE, 2016). However the RUSLE model has many critics as some authors who suggest that only serves to carry out comparisons between areas, and not for the calculation of absolute soil loss data. These authors argue that in field measurements the actual recovered eroded soil can suppose about one-third of the values obtained with the model (Šúri et al., 2002). The study of the area shows that the error detected by the critics could come from

  11. Magnesium sulfate treatment reverses seizure susceptibility and decreases neuroinflammation in a rat model of severe preeclampsia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbie Chapman Johnson

    Full Text Available Eclampsia, defined as unexplained seizure in a woman with preeclampsia, is a life-threatening complication of pregnancy with unclear etiology. Magnesium sulfate (MgSO4 is the leading eclamptic seizure prophylactic, yet its mechanism of action remains unclear. Here, we hypothesized severe preeclampsia is a state of increased seizure susceptibility due to blood-brain barrier (BBB disruption and neuroinflammation that lowers seizure threshold. Further, MgSO4 decreases seizure susceptibility by protecting the BBB and preventing neuroinflammation. To model severe preeclampsia, placental ischemia (reduced uteroplacental perfusion pressure; RUPP was combined with a high cholesterol diet (HC to cause maternal endothelial dysfunction. RUPP+HC rats developed symptoms associated with severe preeclampsia, including hypertension, oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction and fetal and placental growth restriction. Seizure threshold was determined by quantifying the amount of pentylenetetrazole (PTZ; mg/kg required to elicit seizure in RUPP + HC ± MgSO4 and compared to normal pregnant controls (n = 6/group; gestational day 20. RUPP+HC rats were more sensitive to PTZ with seizure threshold being ∼ 65% lower vs. control (12.4 ± 1.7 vs. 36.7 ± 3.9 mg/kg PTZ; p<0.05 that was reversed by MgSO4 (45.7 ± 8.7 mg/kg PTZ; p<0.05 vs. RUPP+HC. BBB permeability to sodium fluorescein, measured in-vivo (n = 5-7/group, was increased in RUPP+HC vs. control rats, with more tracer passing into the brain (15.9 ± 1.0 vs. 12.2 ± 0.3 counts/gram ×1000; p<0.05 and was unaffected by MgSO4 (15.6 ± 1.0 counts/gram ×1000; p<0.05 vs. controls. In addition, RUPP+HC rats were in a state of neuroinflammation, indicated by 35 ± 2% of microglia being active compared to 9 ± 2% in normal pregnancy (p<0.01; n = 3-8/group. MgSO4 treatment reversed neuroinflammation, reducing microglial activation to 6 ± 2% (p<0.01 vs. RUPP+HC. Overall, RUPP+HC rats were in a state of augmented

  12. Flammability properties of British heathland and moorland vegetation: models for predicting fire ignition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santana, Victor M; Marrs, Rob H

    2014-06-15

    Temperate ecosystems, for example British heathlands and moorlands, are predicted to experience an increase in severe summer drought and wildfire frequency over the next few decades. The development of fire ignition probability models is fundamental for developing fire-danger rating systems and predicting wildfire outbreaks. This work assessed the flammability properties of the fuel complex of British moorlands as a function of their moisture content under laboratory conditions. Specifically, we aimed to develop: (1) models of the probability of fire ignition in peat/litter fuel-beds (litter of four different plant species, Sphagnum moss and peat); (2) flammability properties in terms of ignitability, sustainability, consumability and combustibility of these peat/litter fuel-beds; (3) the probability of ignition in a canopy-layer of Calluna vulgaris (the most dominant heath/moor species in Britain) as a function of its dead-fuel proportion and moisture content; (4) the efficacy of standardized smouldering and flaming ignition sources in developing sustained ignitions. For this, a series of laboratory experiments simulating the fuel structure of moor vegetation were performed. The flammability properties in peat/litter fuel-beds were influenced strongly by the fuel moisture content. There were small differences in moisture thresholds for experiencing initial flaming ignitions (35-59%), however, the threshold for sustained ignitions (i.e. spreading a fixed distance from the ignition point) varied across a much wider range (19-55%). Litter/peat fuel-beds were classified into three groups: fuel-beds with high ignitability and combustibility, fuel-beds with high levels of sustainability, and fuel-beds with low levels in all flammability descriptors. The probability of ignition in the upper Calluna-vegetation layer was influenced by both the proportion of dead fuels and their moisture content, ranging from 19% to 35% of moisture as dead fuel proportion increased

  13. Mathematical modelling of flue gas tempered flames produced from pulverised coal fired with oxygen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breussin, A.; Weber, R.; Kamp, W.L. van de

    1997-10-01

    The combustion of pulverised coal in conventional utility boilers contributes significantly to global CO{sub 2} emissions. Because atmospheric air is used as the combustion medium, the exhaust gases of conventional pulverised coal fired utility boilers contain approximately 15 % CO{sub 2}. This relatively low concentration makes separating and recovering CO{sub 2} a very energy-intensive process. This process can be simplified if N{sub 2} is eliminated from the comburent before combustion by firing the pulverised coal with pure oxygen. However, this concept will result in very high flames temperatures. Flue gas recirculation can be used to moderate the flame temperature, whilst generating a flue gas with a CO{sub 2} concentration of 95 %. In this presentation, both experimental and modelling work will be described. The former deals with identifying the issues related to the combustion of pulverised coal in simulated turbine exhaust gas, particularly with respect to stability, burnout and pollutant emissions. The second part of this presentation describes mathematical modelling of type 2 as well as type 1 swirling pulverised coal flames. Future work will concentrate on high CO{sub 2} levels environments. (orig.)

  14. Complementary responses to mean and variance modulations in the perfect integrate-and-fire model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressley, Joanna; Troyer, Todd W

    2009-07-01

    In the perfect integrate-and-fire model (PIF), the membrane voltage is proportional to the integral of the input current since the time of the previous spike. It has been shown that the firing rate within a noise free ensemble of PIF neurons responds instantaneously to dynamic changes in the input current, whereas in the presence of white noise, model neurons preferentially pass low frequency modulations of the mean current. Here, we prove that when the input variance is perturbed while holding the mean current constant, the PIF responds preferentially to high frequency modulations. Moreover, the linear filters for mean and variance modulations are complementary, adding exactly to one. Since changes in the rate of Poisson distributed inputs lead to proportional changes in the mean and variance, these results imply that an ensemble of PIF neurons transmits a perfect replica of the time-varying input rate for Poisson distributed input. A more general argument shows that this property holds for any signal leading to proportional changes in the mean and variance of the input current.

  15. Aotus infulatus monkey is susceptible to Plasmodium falciparum infection and may constitute an alternative experimental model for malaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carvalho Leonardo JM

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Aotus is one of the WHO-recommended primate models for studies in malaria, and several species can be infected with Plasmodium falciparum or P. vivax. Here we describe the successful infection of the species A. infulatus from eastern Amazon with blood stages of P. falciparum. Both intact and splenectomized animals were susceptible to infection; the intact ones were able to keep parasitemias at lower levels for several days, but developed complications such as severe anemia; splenectomized monkeys developed higher parasitemias but no major complications. We conclude that A. infulatus is susceptible to P. falciparum infection and may represent an alternative model for studies in malaria.

  16. Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parresol, Bernard, R.; Scott, Joe, H.; Andreu, Anne; Prichard, Susan; Kurth, Laurie

    2012-01-01

    Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or thousands of measured surface fuelbeds representing the fine scale variation in fire behavior on the landscape is constrained in terms of creating compatible custom fire behavior fuel models. In this study, we demonstrate an objective method for taking ecologically complex fuelbeds from inventory observations and converting those into a set of custom fuel models that can be mapped to the original landscape. We use an original set of 629 fuel inventory plots measured on an 80,000 ha contiguous landscape in the upper Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States. From models linking stand conditions to component fuel loads, we impute fuelbeds for over 6000 stands. These imputed fuelbeds were then converted to fire behavior parameters under extreme fuel moisture and wind conditions (97th percentile) using the fuel characteristic classification system (FCCS) to estimate surface fire rate of spread, surface fire flame length, shrub layer reaction intensity (heat load), non-woody layer reaction intensity, woody layer reaction intensity, and litter-lichen-moss layer reaction intensity. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis of the stands based on the values of the fire behavior parameters. The resulting 7 clusters were the basis for the development of 7 custom fire behavior fuel models from the cluster centroids that were calibrated against the FCCS point data for wind and fuel moisture. The latter process resulted in calibration against flame length as it was difficult to obtain a simultaneous calibration against both rate of spread and flame length. The clusters based on FCCS fire behavior

  17. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation

  18. Landslide susceptibility mapping along PLUS expressways in Malaysia using probabilistic based model in GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Norbazlan M.; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2014-06-01

    PLUS Berhad holds the concession for a total of 987 km of toll expressways in Malaysia, the longest of which is the North-South Expressway or NSE. Acting as the backbone' of the west coast of the peninsula, the NSE stretches from the Malaysian-Thai border in the north to the border with neighbouring Singapore in the south, linking several major cities and towns along the way. North-South Expressway in Malaysia contributes to the country economic development through trade, social and tourism sector. Presently, the highway is good in terms of its condition and connection to every state but some locations need urgent attention. Stability of slopes at these locations is of most concern as any instability can cause danger to the motorist. In this paper, two study locations have been analysed; they are Gua Tempurung (soil slope) and Jelapang (rock slope) which are obviously having two different characteristics. These locations passed through undulating terrain with steep slopes where landslides are common and the probability of slope instability due to human activities in surrounding areas is high. A combination of twelve (12) landslide conditioning factors database on slope stability such as slope degree and slope aspect were extracted from IFSAR (interoferometric synthetic aperture radar) while landuse, lithology and structural geology were constructed from interpretation of high resolution satellite data from World View II, Quickbird and Ikonos. All this information was analysed in geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping using probabilistic based frequency ratio model. Consequently, information on the slopes such as inventories, condition assessments and maintenance records were assessed through total expressway maintenance management system or better known as TEMAN. The above mentioned system is used by PLUS as an asset management and decision support tools for maintenance activities along the highways as well as for data

  19. Landslide susceptibility mapping along PLUS expressways in Malaysia using probabilistic based model in GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusof, Norbazlan M; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2014-01-01

    PLUS Berhad holds the concession for a total of 987 km of toll expressways in Malaysia, the longest of which is the North-South Expressway or NSE. Acting as the backbone' of the west coast of the peninsula, the NSE stretches from the Malaysian-Thai border in the north to the border with neighbouring Singapore in the south, linking several major cities and towns along the way. North-South Expressway in Malaysia contributes to the country economic development through trade, social and tourism sector. Presently, the highway is good in terms of its condition and connection to every state but some locations need urgent attention. Stability of slopes at these locations is of most concern as any instability can cause danger to the motorist. In this paper, two study locations have been analysed; they are Gua Tempurung (soil slope) and Jelapang (rock slope) which are obviously having two different characteristics. These locations passed through undulating terrain with steep slopes where landslides are common and the probability of slope instability due to human activities in surrounding areas is high. A combination of twelve (12) landslide conditioning factors database on slope stability such as slope degree and slope aspect were extracted from IFSAR (interoferometric synthetic aperture radar) while landuse, lithology and structural geology were constructed from interpretation of high resolution satellite data from World View II, Quickbird and Ikonos. All this information was analysed in geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping using probabilistic based frequency ratio model. Consequently, information on the slopes such as inventories, condition assessments and maintenance records were assessed through total expressway maintenance management system or better known as TEMAN. The above mentioned system is used by PLUS as an asset management and decision support tools for maintenance activities along the highways as well as for

  20. A statistical model for forecasting hourly ozone levels during fire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shiyuan (Sharon) Zhong; Annie Esperanza; Leland Tarnay; Julide Kahyaoglu-Koracin

    2009-01-01

    Concerns about smoke from large high-intensity and managed low intensity fires have been increasing during the past decade. Because smoke from large high-intensity fires are known to contain and generate secondary fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone precursors, the effect of fires on air quality in the southern Sierra Nevada is a serious management...

  1. IoT-Based Intelligent Modeling of Smart Home Environment for Fire Prevention and Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal Saeed

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Fires usually occur in homes because of carelessness and changes in environmental conditions. They cause threats to the residential community and may result in human death and property damage. Consequently, house fires must be detected early to prevent these types of threats. The immediate notification of a fire is the most critical issue in domestic fire detection systems. Fire detection systems using wireless sensor networks sometimes do not detect a fire as a consequence of sensor failure. Wireless sensor networks (WSN consist of tiny, cheap, and low-power sensor devices that have the ability to sense the environment and can provide real-time fire detection with high accuracy. In this paper, we designed and evaluated a wireless sensor network using multiple sensors for early detection of house fires. In addition, we used the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM to avoid false alarms. To test the results of our fire detection system, we simulated a fire in a smart home using the Fire Dynamics Simulator and a language program. The simulation results showed that our system is able to detect early fire, even when a sensor is not working, while keeping the energy consumption of the sensors at an acceptable level.

  2. Modeling long-term effects of altered fire regimes following Southern Pine Beetle outbreaks (North Carolina).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiman Xi; John Waldron; Charles Lafon; David Cairns; Andrew Birt; Maria Tchakerian; Robert Coulson; Kier Klepzig

    2009-01-01

    Periodic fires are an important factor shaping the species-rich southern Appalachian forest landscape, and fire regimes in this region have changed significantly over time. The role of fire in maintaining Appalachian forests has been debated and increasingly studied (Delcourt and Delcourt 1998). Experimental studies have shown that pine...

  3. Experimental and modeling study of forest fire effect on soil thermal conductivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathleen M. Smits; Elizabeth Kirby; William J. Massman; Scott Baggett

    2016-01-01

    An understanding of soil thermal conductivity after a wildfire or controlled burn is important to land management and post-fire recovery efforts. Although soil thermal conductivity has been well studied for non-fire heated soils, comprehensive data that evaluate the long-term effect of extreme heating from a fire on the soil thermal conductivity are limited....

  4. 29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart P to... - Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., alarms, and systems that are installed to prevent or control fire ignition sources, and to control fuel source hazards. III. Alarm Systems and How To Report Fires A. A demonstration of alarm procedures, if more than one type exists. B. The work site emergency alarm system. C. Procedures for reporting fires...

  5. Memory effects on epidemic evolution: The susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeedian, M.; Khalighi, M.; Azimi-Tafreshi, N.; Jafari, G. R.; Ausloos, M.

    2017-02-01

    Memory has a great impact on the evolution of every process related to human societies. Among them, the evolution of an epidemic is directly related to the individuals' experiences. Indeed, any real epidemic process is clearly sustained by a non-Markovian dynamics: memory effects play an essential role in the spreading of diseases. Including memory effects in the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model seems very appropriate for such an investigation. Thus, the memory prone SIR model dynamics is investigated using fractional derivatives. The decay of long-range memory, taken as a power-law function, is directly controlled by the order of the fractional derivatives in the corresponding nonlinear fractional differential evolution equations. Here we assume "fully mixed" approximation and show that the epidemic threshold is shifted to higher values than those for the memoryless system, depending on this memory "length" decay exponent. We also consider the SIR model on structured networks and study the effect of topology on threshold points in a non-Markovian dynamics. Furthermore, the lack of access to the precise information about the initial conditions or the past events plays a very relevant role in the correct estimation or prediction of the epidemic evolution. Such a "constraint" is analyzed and discussed.

  6. Tunnel fire dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Ingason, Haukur; Lönnermark, Anders

    2015-01-01

    This book covers a wide range of issues in fire safety engineering in tunnels, describes the phenomena related to tunnel fire dynamics, presents state-of-the-art research, and gives detailed solutions to these major issues. Examples for calculations are provided. The aim is to significantly improve the understanding of fire safety engineering in tunnels. Chapters on fuel and ventilation control, combustion products, gas temperatures, heat fluxes, smoke stratification, visibility, tenability, design fire curves, heat release, fire suppression and detection, CFD modeling, and scaling techniques all equip readers to create their own fire safety plans for tunnels. This book should be purchased by any engineer or public official with responsibility for tunnels. It would also be of interest to many fire protection engineers as an application of evolving technical principles of fire safety.

  7. Towards the dynamic prediction of wildfire danger. Modeling temporal scenarios of fire-occurrence in Northeast Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, Yago; Rodrigues, Marcos

    2017-04-01

    Up to date models of human-caused ignition probability have commonly been developed from a static or structural point of view, regardless of the time cycles that drive human behavior or environmental conditions. However, human drivers mostly have a temporal dimension, and fuel conditions are subjected to temporal changes as well, which is why a historical/temporal perspective is often required. Previous studies in the region suggest that human driving factors of wildfires have undergone significant shifts in inter-annual occurrence probability models, thus varying over time. On the other hand, an increasing role of environmental conditions has also been reported. This research comprehensively analyzes the intra-annual dimension of fire occurrence and fire-triggering factors using NW Spain as a test area, moving one-step forward towards achieving more accurate predictions, to ultimately develop dynamic predictive models. To this end, several intra-annual presence-only models have been calibrated, exploring seasonal variations of environmental conditions and short-term cycles of human activity (working- vs non-working days). Models were developed from accurately geolocated fire data in the 2008-2012 period, and GIS and remote sensing (MOD1A2 and MOD16) information . Specifically, 8 occurrence data subsets (scenarios) were constructed by splitting fire records into 4 seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) then separating each season into 2 new categories (working and non-working days). This allows analyzing the temporal variation of socioeconomic (urban- and agricultural-interfaces, transport and road networks, and human settlements) and environmental (fuel conditions) factors associated with occurrence. Models were calibrated applying the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt algorithm was selected as it is the most widespread approach to deal with presence-only data, as may be the case of fire occurrence. The dependent variable for each scenario was

  8. Fire risk and air pollution assessment during the 2007 wildfire events in Greece using the COSMO-ART atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Vogel, H.; Rieger, D.; Knote, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Vogel, B.; Karali, A.

    2012-04-01

    During 2007, Greece experienced an extreme summer and the worst natural hazard in its modern history. Soil dehydration, following a prolonged dry period in combination with hot temperatures and strong winds, yielded favorable conditions for the ignition and spread of wild fires that burnt approximately 200,000 ha of vegetated land (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009; Sifakis et al., 2011). The relationship between meteorology and fire potential can be provided by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is already found applicable in the fire activity of the Mediterranean region (Carvalho et al., 2008). However, lack of meteorological data or remote fire spots can be sources of uncertainties for fire risk estimation. In addition to the direct fire damage, these fires produced large quantities of gaseous air pollutants and particles (PM10) dispersed over the area of Greece. Indeed, PM10 concentration measurements showed two pollution episodes over Athens during late August and early September, 2007 (Liu et al., 2009). Nevertheless, these measurements neither show the large spatial extent of fire effects nor reveal its important role on atmospheric chemistry. In the current study, the application of the atmospheric model COSMO-ART is used to investigate the issues addressed above. COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) is a regional chemistry transport model (ART stands for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) online-coupled to the COSMO regional numerical weather prediction and climate model (Baldauf et al. 2011). The current simulations are performed between August 15 and September 15 over Greece with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical extend up to 20 km. The initial and boundary meteorological conditions are derived from a coarser COSMO simulation performed by the German Weather Service. Fire emissions are retrieved from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (van der Werf et al., 2010). The anthropogenic emission database used is the TNO/MACC (Kuenen et

  9. Development of input data layers for the FARSITE fire growth model for the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Complex, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Janice L. Garner; Kirsten M. Schmidt; Donald G. Long; James P. Menakis; Mark A. Finney

    1998-01-01

    Fuel and vegetation spatial data layers required by the spatially explicit fire growth model FARSITE were developed for all lands in and around the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area in Idaho and Montana. Satellite imagery and terrain modeling were used to create the three base vegetation spatial data layers of potential vegetation, cover type, and structural stage....

  10. Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Robert E. Keane; Ross A. Bradstock; Ian D. Davies; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; Kimberley A. Logan; Russell A. Parsons

    2009-01-01

    The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFE, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEMLAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets...

  11. Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human

  12. Towards a generic, reliable CFD modelling methodology for waste-fired grate boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajh, Boštjan; Yin, Chungen; Samec, Niko

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is increasingly used in industry for detailed understanding of the combustion process and for appropriate design and optimization of Waste–to–Energy (WtE) plants. In this paper, CFD modelling of waste wood combustion in a 13 MW grate-fired boiler in a WtE plant...... is presented. To reduce the risk of slagging, optimize the temperature control and enhance turbulent mixing, part of the flue gas is recycled into the grate boiler. In the simulation, a 1D in–house bed model is developed to simulate the conversion of the waste wood in the fuel bed on the grate, which provides...... of the increased CO2 and H2O vapour concentrations on radiative heat transfer in the boiler. The impacts of full buoyancy on turbulence are also investigated. As a validation effort, the temperature profiles at different ports inside the furnace are measured and the experimental values are compared with the CFD...

  13. [Hazard evaluation modeling of particulate matters emitted by coal-fired boilers and case analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yan-Ting; Du, Qian; Gao, Jian-Min; Bian, Xin; Wang, Zhi-Pu; Dong, He-Ming; Han, Qiang; Cao, Yang

    2014-02-01

    In order to evaluate the hazard of PM2.5 emitted by various boilers, in this paper, segmentation of particulate matters with sizes of below 2. 5 microm was performed based on their formation mechanisms and hazard level to human beings and environment. Meanwhile, taking into account the mass concentration, number concentration, enrichment factor of Hg, and content of Hg element in different coal ashes, a comprehensive model aimed at evaluating hazard of PM2.5 emitted by coal-fired boilers was established in this paper. Finally, through utilizing filed experimental data of previous literatures, a case analysis of the evaluation model was conducted, and the concept of hazard reduction coefficient was proposed, which can be used to evaluate the performance of dust removers.

  14. Optimized CO2-flue gas separation model for a coal fired power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arachchige, Udara S.P.R. [Telemark University College, Porsgrunn (Norway); Mohsin, Muhammad [Telemark University College, Porsgrunn (Norway); Melaaen, Morten C. [Telemark University College, Porsgrunn (Norway); Tel-Tek, Porsgrunn (Norway)

    2013-07-01

    The detailed description of the CO2 removal process using mono-ethylamine (MEA) as a solvent for coal-fired power plant is present in this paper. The rate based Electrolyte NRTL activity coefficient model was used in the Aspen Plus. The complete removal process with re-circulating solvent back to the absorber was implemented with the sequential modular method in Aspen Plus. The most significant cost related to CO2 capture is the energy requirement for re-generating solvent, i.e. re-boiler duty. Parameters’ effects on re-boiler duty were studied, resulting decreased re-boiler duty with the packing height and absorber packing diameter, absorber pressure, solvent temperature, stripper packing height and diameter. On the other hand, with the flue gas temperature, re-boiler duty is increased. The temperature profiles and CO2 loading profiles were used to check the model behavior.

  15. Integrating Land Change Science and Savanna Fire Models in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Laris

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a key component of many land use systems and a determinant of land change. There is a growing concern that climate change will cause more catastrophic fires, but in many areas the impacts will be mediated by human land use practices. In African savannas, for example, fires are frequent and research finds low inter-annual variability in burned areas in places with highly variable rainfall. This regularity of fire suggests that African regimes are humanized, meaning that they are governed by human practices more than climate variation. Although these fire regimes are stable, they vary greatly over space. This paper will determine the reasons for two distinctly different fire regimes in Mali by integrating land change and savanna fire science. The study takes a two pronged approach to examine the causes of fire regimes and the reasons they change. It tests the notion that land cover (not land use governs fire regimes by combining long term burn scar and vegetation analysis with local interviews. Results indicate that efforts to link fire and land change science, need to focus more on subtle differences in land cover, landscape pattern and human practices, than on drought, land use or fire policy.

  16. A comparative study on the landslide susceptibility mapping using evidential belief function and weights of evidence models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiqing; Li, Wenping; Wu, Yanli; Pei, Yabing; Xing, Maolin; Yang, Dongdong

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide-prone area (Daguan County, China) by evidential belief function (EBF) model and weights of evidence (WoE) model to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, a landslide inventory map was constructed mainly based on earlier reports and aerial photographs, as well as, by carrying out field surveys. A total of 194 landslides were mapped. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly split into a training dataset; 70% (136 landslides) for training the models and the remaining 30% (58 landslides) was used for validation purpose. Then, a total number of 14 conditioning factors, such as slope angle, slope aspect, general curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI) were used in the analysis. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using the EBF and WoE models. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was accomplished with the area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for EBF and WoE models were of 80.19% and 80.75% accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the susceptibility map using EBF model has the prediction accuracy of 80.09%, while for WoE model, it was 79.79%. The results of this study showed that both landslide susceptibility maps obtained were successful and would be useful for regional spatial planning as well as for land cover planning.

  17. [Combustion zone investigation and modelling in fuel flexible suspension fired boilers]. Result summary and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lovmand Hvid, S.

    2011-12-15

    The project has been designed to obtain data from a power plant boiler with co-combustion, partly to gain greater knowledge of particle turnover in the fuel zone, partly to support the development of modeling tools. Data collection occurred at Studstrup Power Station Unit 4, where the fuel is a combination of coal and biomass. The boiler is equipped with 24 dust burners, four of which have been converted to firing with biomass. Measurements have been carried out in the flame zone with different fuels: coal alone, coal + straw and coal + wood. During the experiments velocity fields, temperature fields and gas concentration fields were measured in the firing zone. Also, particle samples from the flame zone ware collected. Several measurements are performed with well-known techniques, but in addition, the project developed new optical measurement methods based on UV spectroscopy. They allow measuring other gases than the hitherto known methods and allow you to gain insight into the dynamic variations beyond just mean fields. The collection of particle samples from the boiler was, as expected, a very challenging task under the given conditions, but was carried out with a largely satisfactory result. Analysis of the samples has initially failed to lead to an increased recognition of the speed of the conversion process, but the samples will be analyzed in more detail in other projects. (LN)

  18. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Mazzoni

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP. Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best "LFP proxy", we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents with "ground-truth" LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo.

  19. Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Comparison of the models and their utility for the fire brigades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.

    2009-04-01

    Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Comparison of the models and their utility for the fire brigades. Sirma Stenzel, Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer In the case of accidental release of hazardous gases in the atmosphere, the emergency responders need a reliable and fast tool to assess the possible consequences and apply the optimal countermeasures. For hazard prediction and simulation of the hazard zones a number of air dispersion models are available. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for display the results, they are easy to use and can operate fast and effective during stress situations. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. There are also possibilities for model direct coupling to automatic meteorological stations, in order to avoid uncertainties in the model output due to insufficient or incorrect meteorological data. Another key problem in coping with accidental toxic release is the relative width spectrum of regulations and values, like IDLH, ERPG, AEGL, MAK etc. and the different criteria for their application. Since the particulate emergency responders and organizations require for their purposes unequal regulations and values, it is quite difficult to predict the individual hazard areas. There are a quite number of research studies and investigations coping with the problem, anyway the end decision is up to the authorities. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and

  20. Numerical investigation of full scale coal combustion model of tangentially fired boiler with the effect of mill ducting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achim, Daniela; Naser, J.; Morsi, Y. S.; Pascoe, S.

    2009-11-01

    In this paper a full scale combustion model incorporating upstream mill ducting of a large tangentially fired boiler with flue gas recirculation was examined numerically. Lagrangian particle tracking was used to determine the coal particle paths and the Eddy Dissipation Model for the analysis of the gas phase combustion. Moreover volatiles and gaseous char products, given off by the coal particles were modelled by Arrhenius single phase reactions and a transport equation was solved for each material given off by the particles. Thermal, prompt, fuel and reburn NO x models with presumed probability density functions were used to model NO x production and the discrete transfer radiation model was used to model radiation heat transfer. Generally, the findings indicated reasonable agreement with observed qualitative and quantitative data of incident heat flux on the walls. The model developed here could be used for a range of applications in furnace design and optimisation of gas emissions of coal fired boiler plants.

  1. Complex Relationships of the Effects of Topographic Characteristics and Susceptible Tree Cover on Burn Severity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Joo Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires and burn severity mosaics have profound impacts on the post-fire dynamics and complexity of forest ecosystems. Numerous studies have investigated the relationship between topographic variables and susceptible tree covers with regard to burn severity. However, these relationships have not been fully elucidated, because most studies have assumed linearity in these relationships. Therefore, we examined the linearity and the nonlinearity in the relationships between topographic variables and susceptible tree covers with burn severity by comparing linear and nonlinear models. The site of the Samcheok fire, the largest recorded forest fire in Korea, was used as the study area. We generated 802 grid cells with a 500-m resolution that encompassed the entire study area and collected a dataset that included the topographic variables and percentage of red pine trees, which are the most susceptible tree cover types in Korea. We used conventional linear models and generalized additive models to estimate the linear and the nonlinear models based on topographic variables and Japanese red pine trees. The results revealed that the percentage of red pine trees had linear effects on burn severity, reinforcing the importance of silviculture and forest management to lower burn severity. Meanwhile, the topographic variables had nonlinear effects on burn severity. Among the topographic variables, elevation had the strongest nonlinear effect on burn severity, possibly by overriding the effects of susceptible fuels over elevation effects or due to the nonlinear effects of topographic characteristics on pre-fire fuel conditions, including the spatial distribution and availability of susceptible tree cover. To validate and generalize the nonlinear effects of elevation and other topographic variables, additional research is required at different fire sites with different tree cover types in different geographic locations.

  2. A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

    2018-02-01

    Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Modelling post-fire soil erosion hazard using ordinal logistic regression: A case study in South-eastern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Ruiz-Gallardo, José-Reyes

    2015-03-01

    Treatments that minimize soil erosion after large wildfires depend, among other factors, on fire severity and landscape configuration so that, in practice, most of them are applied according to emergency criteria. Therefore, simple tools to predict soil erosion risk help to decide where the available resources should be used first. In this study, a predictive model for soil erosion degree, based on ordinal logistic regression, has been developed and evaluated using data from three large forest fires in South-eastern Spain. The field data were successfully fit to the model in 60% of cases after 50 runs (i.e., agreement between observed and predicted soil erosion degrees), using slope steepness, slope aspect, and fire severity as predictors. North-facing slopes were shown to be less prone to soil erosion than the rest.

  4. Mathematical modeling and experimental study of biomass combustion in a thermal 108 MW grate-fired boiler

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse; Kær, Søren K.

    2008-01-01

    Grate boilers are widely used to fire biomass for heat and power production. However grate-firing systems are often reported to have relatively high un-burnout, low efficiency and high emissions, and need to be optimized and modernized. This paper presents the efforts towards a reliable baseline...... computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for an industrial biomass-fired grate boiler, which can be used for diagnosis and optimization of the grate boiler as well as design of new grate boilers. First, based on the design conditions, a thorough sensitivity analysis is done to evaluate the relative importance...... of different factors in CFD analysis of the grate boiler. In a late stage, a two-day measuring campaign is carried out to measure the gas temperatures and gas concentrations in the boiler using a fiber optic probe connected to a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer. A baseline model is then defined...

  5. Computational stochastic heat transfer with model uncertainties in a plasterboard submitted to fire load and experimental validation

    OpenAIRE

    Sakji, S.; Soize, Christian; Heck, J.-V.

    2009-01-01

    International audience; The paper deals with probabilistic modeling of heat transfer throughout plasterboard plates when exposed to an equivalent ISO thermal load. The proposed model takes into account data and model uncertainties. This research addresses a general need to perform robust modeling of plasterboard-lined partition submitted to fire load. The first step of this work concerns the development of an experimental thermo, physical identification data base for plasterboard. These exper...

  6. Mathematical Foundation Based Inter-Connectivity modelling of Thermal Image processing technique for Fire Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayantan Nath

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, integration between multiple functions of image processing and its statistical parameters for intelligent alarming series based fire detection system is presented. The proper inter-connectivity mapping between processing elements of imagery based on classification factor for temperature monitoring and multilevel intelligent alarm sequence is introduced by abstractive canonical approach. The flow of image processing components between core implementation of intelligent alarming system with temperature wise area segmentation as well as boundary detection technique is not yet fully explored in the present era of thermal imaging. In the light of analytical perspective of convolutive functionalism in thermal imaging, the abstract algebra based inter-mapping model between event-calculus supported DAGSVM classification for step-by-step generation of alarm series with gradual monitoring technique and segmentation of regions with its affected boundaries in thermographic image of coal with respect to temperature distinctions is discussed. The connectedness of the multifunctional operations of image processing based compatible fire protection system with proper monitoring sequence is presently investigated here. The mathematical models representing the relation between the temperature affected areas and its boundary in the obtained thermal image defined in partial derivative fashion is the core contribution of this study. The thermal image of coal sample is obtained in real-life scenario by self-assembled thermographic camera in this study. The amalgamation between area segmentation, boundary detection and alarm series are described in abstract algebra. The principal objective of this paper is to understand the dependency pattern and the principles of working of image processing components and structure an inter-connected modelling technique also for those components with the help of mathematical foundation.

  7. WRF-Fire Applied in Bulgaria

    OpenAIRE

    Dobrinkova, Nina; Jordanov, Georgi; Mandel, Jan

    2010-01-01

    WRF-Fire consists of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) coupled with a fire spread model, based on the level-set method. We describe a preliminary application of WRF-Fire to a forest fire in Bulgaria, oportunities for research of forest fire models for Bulgaria, and plans for the development of an Environmental Decision Support Systems which includes computational modeling of fire behavior.

  8. Modeling acute respiratory illness during the 2007 San Diego wildland fires using a coupled emissions-transport system and generalized additive modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Brian; French, Nancy H F; Koziol, Benjamin W; Billmire, Michael; Owen, Robert Chris; Johnson, Jeffrey; Ginsberg, Michele; Loboda, Tatiana; Wu, Shiliang

    2013-11-05

    A study of the impacts on respiratory health of the 2007 wildland fires in and around San Diego County, California is presented. This study helps to address the impact of fire emissions on human health by modeling the exposure potential of proximate populations to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from vegetation fires. Currently, there is no standard methodology to model and forecast the potential respiratory health effects of PM plumes from wildland fires, and in part this is due to a lack of methodology for rigorously relating the two. The contribution in this research specifically targets that absence by modeling explicitly the emission, transmission, and distribution of PM following a wildland fire in both space and time. Coupled empirical and deterministic models describing particulate matter (PM) emissions and atmospheric dispersion were linked to spatially explicit syndromic surveillance health data records collected through the San Diego Aberration Detection and Incident Characterization (SDADIC) system using a Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM) statistical approach. Two levels of geographic aggregation were modeled, a county-wide regional level and division of the county into six sub regions. Selected health syndromes within SDADIC from 16 emergency departments within San Diego County relevant for respiratory health were identified for inclusion in the model. The model captured the variability in emergency department visits due to several factors by including nine ancillary variables in addition to wildfire PM concentration. The model coefficients and nonlinear function plots indicate that at peak fire PM concentrations the odds of a person seeking emergency care is increased by approximately 50% compared to non-fire conditions (40% for the regional case, 70% for a geographically specific case). The sub-regional analyses show that demographic variables also influence respiratory health outcomes from smoke. The model developed in this study allows a

  9. [Genetics and susceptibility to human papillomaviruses: epidermodysplasia verruciformis, a disease model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Gérard

    2010-06-01

    The outcomes of infection by human papillomaviruses (HPV), both oncogenic and non oncogenic, show major interindividual variability The underlying genetic factors and mechanisms are poorly known, but their complexity is illustrated by epidermodysplasia verruciformis (EV), a rare autosomal recessive genodermatosis associated with a high risk of non melanoma skin cancer. This model disease is characterized by abnormal susceptibility to widespread betapapillomaviruses, including HPV-5, a virus associated with EV cancers. Most cases of EV are caused by a mutation that inactivates either of two related genes, EVER1 and EVER2. This inactivation likely compensates for the absence of a viral gene (E5 or E8) essential for HPV pathogenicity. Proteins E5 and E8 interfere with the interaction between EVER proteins and ZnT1, a zinc transporter EV is thus likely to represent a primary defect of intrinsic (constitutive) immunity or innate immunity to betapapillomaviruses, involving modulation of zinc homeostasis upon keratinocyte infection. It remains to be established which cellular genes are involved in intrinsic, innate or acquired immune responses to other human papillomaviruses, including oncogenic genital types.

  10. Increased susceptibility to otitis media in a Splunc1-deficient mouse model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Jennifer A.; Meyerholz, David K.; Wohlford-Lenane, Christine L.; Naumann, Paul W.; Salzman, Nita H.; McCray, Paul B.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Otitis media (inflammation of the middle ear) is one of the most common diseases of early childhood. Susceptibility to otitis is influenced by a number of factors, including the actions of innate immune molecules secreted by the epithelia lining the nasopharynx, middle ear and Eustachian tube. The SPLUNC1 (short palate, lung, nasal epithelial clone 1) protein is a highly abundant secretory product of the mammalian nasal, oral and respiratory mucosa that is thought to play a multifunctional role in host defense. In this study we investigated Splunc1 expression in the ear of the mouse, and examined whether this protein contributes to overall host defense in the middle ear and/or Eustachian tube. We found that Splunc1 is highly expressed in both the surface epithelium and in submucosal glands in these regions in wild-type mice. In mice lacking Splunc1, we noted histologically an increased frequency of otitis media, characterized by the accumulation of leukocytes (neutrophils with scattered macrophages), proteinaceous fluid and mucus in the middle ear lumens. Furthermore, many of these mice had extensive remodeling of the middle ear wall, suggesting a chronic course of disease. From these observations, we conclude that loss of Splunc1 predisposes mice to the development of otitis media. The Splunc1−/− mouse model should help investigators to better understand both the biological role of Splunc1 as well as host defense mechanisms in the middle ear. PMID:25765466

  11. Structure models of G72, the product of a susceptibility gene to schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Yusuke; Fukui, Kiyoshi

    2017-02-01

    The G72 gene is one of the most susceptible genes to schizophrenia and is contained exclusively in the genomes of primates. The product of the G72 gene modulates the activity of D-amino acid oxidase (DAO) and is a small protein prone to aggregate, which hampers its structural studies. In addition, lack of a known structure of a homologue makes it difficult to use the homology modelling method for the prediction of the structure. Thus, we first developed a hybrid ab initio approach for small proteins prior to the prediction of the structure of G72. The approach uses three known ab initio algorithms. To evaluate the hybrid approach, we tested our prediction of the structure of the amino acid sequences whose structures were already solved and compared the predicted structures with the experimentally solved structures. Based on these comparisons, the average accuracy of our approach was calculated to be ∼5 Å. We then applied the approach to the sequence of G72 and successfully predicted the structures of the N- and C-terminal domains (ND and CD, respectively) of G72. The predicted structures of ND and CD were similar to membrane-bound proteins and adaptor proteins, respectively. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Japanese Biochemical Society. All rights reserved.

  12. Laboratory fire behavior measurements of chaparral crown fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Sanpakit; S. Omodan; D. Weise; M Princevac

    2015-01-01

    In 2013, there was an estimated 9,900 wildland fires that claimed more than 577,000 acres of land. That same year, about 542 prescribed fires were used to treat 48,554 acres by several agencies in California. Being able to understand fires using laboratory models can better prepare individuals to combat or use fires. Our research focused on chaparral crown fires....

  13. A model to estimate effects of SNPs on host susceptibility and infectivity for an endemic infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biemans, Floor; de Jong, Mart C M; Bijma, Piter

    2017-06-30

    Infectious diseases in farm animals affect animal health, decrease animal welfare and can affect human health. Selection and breeding of host individuals with desirable traits regarding infectious diseases can help to fight disease transmission, which is affected by two types of (genetic) traits: host susceptibility and host infectivity. Quantitative genetic studies on infectious diseases generally connect an individual's disease status to its own genotype, and therefore capture genetic effects on susceptibility only. However, they usually ignore variation in exposure to infectious herd mates, which may limit the accuracy of estimates of genetic effects on susceptibility. Moreover, genetic effects on infectivity will exist as well. Thus, to design optimal breeding strategies, it is essential that genetic effects on infectivity are quantified. Given the potential importance of genetic effects on infectivity, we set out to develop a model to estimate the effect of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. To evaluate the quality of the resulting SNP effect estimates, we simulated an endemic disease in 10 groups of 100 individuals, and recorded time-series data on individual disease status. We quantified bias and precision of the estimates for different sizes of SNP effects, and identified the optimum recording interval when the number of records is limited. We present a generalized linear mixed model to estimate the effect of SNPs on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. SNP effects were on average slightly underestimated, i.e. estimates were conservative. Estimates were less precise for infectivity than for susceptibility. Given our sample size, the power to estimate SNP effects for susceptibility was 100% for differences between genotypes of a factor 1.56 or more, and was higher than 60% for infectivity for differences between genotypes of a factor 4 or more. When disease status was recorded 11 times on each

  14. Wildfire susceptibility mapping: comparing deterministic and stochastic approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Mário; Leuenberger, Michael; Parente, Joana; Tonini, Marj

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of wildfire-occurrence in a certain area under particular environmental conditions represents a modern tool to support forest protection plans and to reduce fires consequences. This can be performed by the implementation of wildfire susceptibility mapping, normally achieved employing more or less sophisticated models which combine the predisposing variables (as raster datasets) into a geographic information systems (GIS). The selection of the appropriate variables includes the evaluation of success and the implementation of prediction curves, as well as independent probabilistic validations for different scenarios. These methods allow to define the spatial pattern of wildfire-occurrences, characterize the susceptibility of the territory, namely for specific fire causes/types, and can also account for other factors such as human behavior and social aspects. We selected Portugal as the study region which, due to its favorable climatic, topographic and vegetation conditions, is by far the European country most affected by wildfires. In addition, Verde and Zêzere (2010) performed a first assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal which can be used as benchmarking. The objectives of the present study comprise: (1) assessing the structural forest fire risk in Portugal using updated datasets, namely, with higher spatial resolution (80 m to 25 m), most recent vegetation cover (Corine Land Cover), longer fire history (1975-2013); and, (2) comparing linear vs non-linear approaches for wildfire susceptibility mapping. The data we used includes: (i) a DEM derived from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission in a resolution of 1 arc-seconds (DEM-SRTM 25 m) to assess elevation and slope; (ii) the Corine Land Cover inventory provided by the European Environment Agency (http://www.eea.europa.eu/pt) to produce the land use land cover map; (iii) the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA) provided by the Institute for the

  15. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Salmento, J.S.; Frey, H.C.; Abu-Baker, A.; Berkenpas, M.

    1991-05-01

    The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) was designed to permit the systematic evaluation of environmental control options for pulverized coal-fired (PC) power plants. Of special interest was the ability to compare the performance and cost of advanced pollution control systems to conventional'' technologies for the control of particulate, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Of importance also was the ability to consider pre-combustion, combustion and post-combustion control methods employed alone or in combination to meet tough air pollution emission standards. Finally, the ability to conduct probabilistic analyses is a unique capability of the IECM. Key results are characterized as distribution functions rather than as single deterministic values. (VC)

  16. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Salmento, J.S.; Frey, H.C.; Abu-Baker, A.; Berkenpas, M.

    1991-05-01

    The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) was designed to permit the systematic evaluation of environmental control options for pulverized coal-fired (PC) power plants. Of special interest was the ability to compare the performance and cost of advanced pollution control systems to ``conventional`` technologies for the control of particulate, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Of importance also was the ability to consider pre-combustion, combustion and post-combustion control methods employed alone or in combination to meet tough air pollution emission standards. Finally, the ability to conduct probabilistic analyses is a unique capability of the IECM. Key results are characterized as distribution functions rather than as single deterministic values. (VC)

  17. Predictive modeling of freezing and thawing of frost-susceptible soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Frost depth is an essential factor in design of various transportation infrastructures. In frost : susceptible soils, as soils freezes, water migrates through the soil voids below the freezing line : towards the freezing front and causes excessive he...

  18. Technical Note: Assessing predictive capacity and conditional independence of landslide predisposing factors for shallow landslide susceptibility models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pereira

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to identify the landslide predisposing factors' combination using a bivariate statistical model that best predicts landslide susceptibility. The best model is one that has simultaneously good performance in terms of suitability and predictive power and has been developed using variables that are conditionally independent. The study area is the Santa Marta de Penaguião council (70 km2 located in the Northern Portugal.

    In order to identify the best combination of landslide predisposing factors, all possible combinations using up to seven predisposing factors were performed, which resulted in 120 predictions that were assessed with a landside inventory containing 767 shallow translational slides. The best landslide susceptibility model was selected according to the model degree of fitness and on the basis of a conditional independence criterion. The best model was developed with only three landslide predisposing factors (slope angle, inverse wetness index, and land use and was compared with a model developed using all seven landslide predisposing factors.

    Results showed that it is possible to produce a reliable landslide susceptibility model using fewer landslide predisposing factors, which contributes towards higher conditional independence.

  19. Modeling of the structural response to fire of a high-rise steel building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentili, Filippo; Giuliani, Luisa; Bontempi, Franco

    2011-01-01

    problems due to the triggering of local mechanism should be overcome to this purpose. In this paper, a steel structure has been considered as case study and the response of the structural system to fire and fire effects has been investigated with the avail of a finite element commercial code. These kinds......Observations from the tests and the real fire investigations have consistently shown that the performance of a whole steel-framed building in fire is very different from the performance of its individual members (Usmani et al, 2000). In this context, it is of interest to investigate the failures...... mechanism of a structure under fire and to highlight a possible disproportionate influence of a local failure triggered by the fire on the response of the whole structure (Bontempi et al., 2010). The propagation of the collapse has to be traced up to the global collapse of the structure and numerical...

  20. Improving representation of drought stress and fire emissions in climate carbon models: measurements and modeling with a focus on the western USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehleringer, James [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Biology; Randerson, James [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Lai, Chun-Ta [San Diego State Univ., CA (United States)

    2016-02-16

    The objective of the proposed research was to collect data and develop models to improve our understanding of the role of drought and fire impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle in the western US, including impacts associated with urban systems as they impacted regional carbon cycles. Using data we collected and a synthesis of other measurements, we developed new ways (a) to evaluate the representation of drought stress and fire emissions in the Community Land Model, (b) to model net ecosystem exchange combining ground level atmospheric observations with boundary layer theory, (c) to model upstream impacts of fire and fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric carbon dioxide observations, and (d) to model carbon dioxide observations within urban systems and at the urban-wildland interfaces of forest ecosystems.

  1. Model for small arms fire muzzle blast wave propagation in air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Juan R.; Desai, Sachi V.

    2011-11-01

    Accurate modeling of small firearms muzzle blast wave propagation in the far field is critical to predict sound pressure levels, impulse durations and rise times, as functions of propagation distance. Such a task being relevant to a number of military applications including the determination of human response to blast noise, gunfire detection and localization, and gun suppressor design. Herein, a time domain model to predict small arms fire muzzle blast wave propagation is introduced. The model implements a Friedlander wave with finite rise time which diverges spherically from the gun muzzle. Additionally, the effects in blast wave form of thermoviscous and molecular relaxational processes, which are associated with atmospheric absorption of sound were also incorporated in the model. Atmospheric absorption of blast waves is implemented using a time domain recursive formula obtained from numerical integration of corresponding differential equations using a Crank-Nicholson finite difference scheme. Theoretical predictions from our model were compared to previously recorded real world data of muzzle blast wave signatures obtained by shooting a set different sniper weapons of varying calibers. Recordings containing gunfire acoustical signatures were taken at distances between 100 and 600 meters from the gun muzzle. Results shows that predicted blast wave slope and exponential decay agrees well with measured data. Analysis also reveals the persistency of an oscillatory phenomenon after blast overpressure in the recorded wave forms.

  2. Mercury capture within coal-fired power plant electrostatic precipitators: model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clack, Herek L

    2009-03-01

    Efforts to reduce anthropogenic mercury emissions worldwide have recently focused on a variety of sources, including mercury emitted during coal combustion. Toward that end, much research has been ongoing seeking to develop new processes for reducing coal combustion mercury emissions. Among air pollution control processes that can be applied to coal-fired boilers, electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) are by far the most common, both on a global scale and among the principal countries of India, China, and the U.S. that burn coal for electric power generation. A previously reported theoretical model of in-flight mercury capture within ESPs is herein evaluated against data from a number of full-scale tests of activated carbon injection for mercury emissions control. By using the established particle size distribution of the activated carbon and actual or estimated values of its equilibrium mercury adsorption capacity, the incremental reduction in mercury concentration across each ESP can be predicted and compared to experimental results. Because the model does not incorporate kinetics associated with gas-phase mercury transformation or surface adsorption, the model predictions representthe mass-transfer-limited performance. Comparing field data to model results reveals many facilities performing at or near the predicted mass-transfer-limited maximum, particularly at low rates of sorbent injection. Where agreement is poor between field data and model predictions, additional chemical or physical phenomena may be responsible for reducing mercury removal efficiencies.

  3. One-dimensional thermal response modeling of a transuranic foamed overpack system to a fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suchsland, K.E.; Kwong, K.C.; Fretter, E.F.; Boyd, R.D.; Auerbach, I.; Yoshimura, H.R.

    1980-01-01

    Procedures have been established for modeling the thermal response of TRU container walls (TRUPACT) exposed to a fire environment. The effort included simulation testing and thermal modeling of the wall material. In this study, both testing and modeling were directed at determining a one-dimensional thermal model for undamaged polyurethane foam. The foam was assumed to exist in a nonoxidizing environment and was exposed to an almost step change in surface temperature. Results indicate that if the TRU waste container wall includes a polyurethane foam (64 kg/m 3 density) of thickness greater than 20 cm and the wall is otherwise undamaged, there will be no change in the waste content temperature where the container is subjected to a surface temperature as high as 1333 K for times less than 3600 s. Further improvements are needed in the thermal model to include transpiration, better estimates of the temperature-dependent thermal conductivity, effects of damaged wall structure and radiation absorption effects for the charged foam. 10 figures

  4. Theoretical modelling of the movement of sodium fire fumes in a building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaughan, G.J.; Simpson, C.P.; Smith, A.G.

    1989-01-01

    The important effect that the thermal hydraulic behaviour in a containment can have on the burning rate of a sodium fire is discussed. To explore the nature of the convective motion induced y the fire and how these might be affected by the containment morphology, calculations with a thermal hydraulic code, PHOENICS, were carried out. This code has also been used to investigate the movement of the smoke cloud produced by a fire to support a study of the use of a venting system. Both studies are reported and some conclusions on the role of thermal hydraulic phenomena on sodium fire investigations are made. (author)

  5. The Gamma renewal process as an output of the diffusion leaky integrate-and-fire neuronal model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lánský, Petr; Sacerdote, L.; Zucca, C.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 110, 2-3 (2016), s. 193-200 ISSN 0340-1200 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-08066S Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : first-passage-time problem * leaky integrate-and-fire * Stein's neuronal model Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.716, year: 2016

  6. Generalization of the event-based Carnevale-Hines integration scheme for integrate-and-fire models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Elburg, R.A.J.; van Ooyen, A.

    2009-01-01

    An event-based integration scheme for an integrate-and-fire neuron model with exponentially decaying excitatory synaptic currents and double exponential inhibitory synaptic currents has been introduced by Carnevale and Hines. However, the integration scheme imposes nonphysiological constraints on

  7. Modeling wind fields and fire propagation following bark beetle outbreaks in spatially-heterogeneous pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodman R. Linn; Carolyn H. Sieg; Chad M. Hoffman; Judith L. Winterkamp; Joel D. McMillin

    2013-01-01

    We used a physics-based model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, to explore changes in within-stand wind behavior and fire propagation associated with three time periods in pinyon-juniper woodlands following a drought-induced bark beetle outbreak and subsequent tree mortality. Pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes are highly heterogeneous. Trees often are clumped, with sparse patches...

  8. Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent. Mouillot

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of nlodelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

  9. Modeling the Pyrolysis and Combustion Behaviors of Non-Charring and Intumescent-Protected Polymers Using “FiresCone”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Shi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model, named FiresCone, was developed to simulate the pyrolysis and combustion processes of different types of combustible materials, which also took into account both gas and solid phases. In the present study, some non-charring and intumescent-protected polymer samples were investigated regarding their combustion behaviors in response to pre-determined external heat fluxes. The modeling results were validated against the experimental outcomes obtained from a cone calorimeter. The predicted mass loss rates of the samples were found to fit reasonably well with the experimental data collected under various levels of external irradiation. Both the experimental and modeling results showed that the peak mass loss rate of the non-charring polymer material occurred near the end of burning, whereas for the intumescent-protected polymer it happed shortly after the start of the experiment. “FiresCone” is expected to act as a practical tool for the investigation of fire behavior of combustible materials. It is also expected to model fire scenarios under complicated conditions.

  10. Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao; Kaiser, Johannes W.; van der Werf, Guido R.

    2017-09-01

    Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr-1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled

  11. Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. E. van Marle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and

  12. Molecular epidemiology of acute leukemia in children: causal model, interaction of three factors-susceptibility, environmental exposure and vulnerability period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía-Aranguré, Juan Manuel

    Acute leukemias have a huge morphological, cytogenetic and molecular heterogeneity and genetic polymorphisms associated with susceptibility. Every leukemia presents causal factors associated with the development of the disease. Particularly, when three factors are present, they result in the development of acute leukemia. These phenomena are susceptibility, environmental exposure and a period that, for this model, has been called the period of vulnerability. This framework shows how the concepts of molecular epidemiology have established a reference from which it is more feasible to identify the environmental factors associated with the development of leukemia in children. Subsequently, the arguments show that only susceptible children are likely to develop leukemia once exposed to an environmental factor. For additional exposure, if the child is not susceptible to leukemia, the disease does not develop. In addition, this exposure should occur during a time window when hematopoietic cells and their environment are more vulnerable to such interaction, causing the development of leukemia. This model seeks to predict the time when the leukemia develops and attempts to give a context in which the causality of childhood leukemia should be studied. This information can influence and reduce the risk of a child developing leukemia. Copyright © 2016 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  13. Mercury Speciation in Coal-Fired Power Plant Flue Gas-Experimental Studies and Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radisav Vidic; Joseph Flora; Eric Borguet

    2008-12-31

    The overall goal of the project was to obtain a fundamental understanding of the catalytic reactions that are promoted by solid surfaces present in coal combustion systems and develop a mathematical model that described key phenomena responsible for the fate of mercury in coal-combustion systems. This objective was achieved by carefully combining laboratory studies under realistic process conditions using simulated flue gas with mathematical modeling efforts. Laboratory-scale studies were performed to understand the fundamental aspects of chemical reactions between flue gas constituents and solid surfaces present in the fly ash and their impact on mercury speciation. Process models were developed to account for heterogeneous reactions because of the presence of fly ash as well as the deliberate addition of particles to promote Hg oxidation and adsorption. Quantum modeling was used to obtain estimates of the kinetics of heterogeneous reactions. Based on the initial findings of this study, additional work was performed to ascertain the potential of using inexpensive inorganic sorbents to control mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants without adverse impact on the salability fly ash, which is one of the major drawbacks of current control technologies based on activated carbon.

  14. Flash flood susceptibility analysis and its mapping using different bivariate models in Iran: a comparison between Shannon's entropy, statistical index, and weighting factor models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosravi, Khabat; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Chapi, Kamran; Bahri, Masoumeh

    2016-12-01

    Flooding is a very common worldwide natural hazard causing large-scale casualties every year; Iran is not immune to this thread as well. Comprehensive flood susceptibility mapping is very important to reduce losses of lives and properties. Thus, the aim of this study is to map susceptibility to flooding by different bivariate statistical methods including Shannon's entropy (SE), statistical index (SI), and weighting factor (Wf). In this regard, model performance evaluation is also carried out in Haraz Watershed, Mazandaran Province, Iran. In the first step, 211 flood locations were identified by the documentary sources and field inventories, of which 70% (151 positions) were used for flood susceptibility modeling and 30% (60 positions) for evaluation and verification of the model. In the second step, ten influential factors in flooding were chosen, namely slope angle, plan curvature, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), distance from river, rainfall, geology, land use, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). In the next step, flood susceptibility maps were prepared by these four methods in ArcGIS. As the last step, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for quantitative assessment of each model. The results showed that the best model to estimate the susceptibility to flooding in Haraz Watershed was SI model with the prediction and success rates of 99.71 and 98.72%, respectively, followed by Wf and SE models with the AUC values of 98.1 and 96.57% for the success rate, and 97.6 and 92.42% for the prediction rate, respectively. In the SI and Wf models, the highest and lowest important parameters were the distance from river and geology. Flood susceptibility maps are informative for managers and decision makers in Haraz Watershed in order to contemplate measures to reduce human and financial losses.

  15. Anomalous behaviour of the magnetic susceptibility of the mixed spin-1 and spin- 1/2 anisotropic Heisenberg model in the Oguchi approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobak, Andrej; Dely, Jan; Pokorny, Vladislav

    2010-01-01

    The effects of both an exchange anisotropy and a single-ion anisotropy on the magnetic susceptibility of the mixed spin-1 and spin- 1/2 Heisenberg model are investigated by the use of an Oguchi approximation. Particular emphasis is given to the simple cubic lattice with coordination number z = 6 for which the magnetic susceptibility is determined numerically. Anomalous behaviour in the thermal variation of the magnetic susceptibility in the low-temperature region is found due to the applied negative single-ion anisotropy field strength. Also, the difference between the behaviours of the magnetic susceptibility of the Heisenberg and Ising models is discussed.

  16. Advancements in Hydrology and Erosion Process Understanding and Post-Fire Hydrologic and Erosion Model Development for Semi-Arid Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.

    2017-04-01

    Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.

  17. FARSITE: a fire area simulator for fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney

    1995-01-01

    A fire growth model (FARSITE) has been developed for use on personal computers (PC’s). Because PC’s are commonly used by land and fire managers, this portable platform would be an accustomed means to bring fire growth modeling technology to management applications. The FARSITE model is intended for use in projecting the growth of prescribed natural fires for wilderness...

  18. Determining the terrain characteristics related to the surface expression of subsurface water pressurization in permafrost landscapes using susceptibility modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Jean E.; Rudy, Ashley C. A.; Lamoureux, Scott F.; Treitz, Paul M.

    2017-06-01

    Warming of the Arctic in recent years has led to changes in the active layer and uppermost permafrost. In particular, thick active layer formation results in more frequent thaw of the ice-rich transient layer. This addition of moisture, as well as infiltration from late season precipitation, results in high pore-water pressures (PWPs) at the base of the active layer and can potentially result in landscape degradation. To predict areas that have the potential for subsurface pressurization, we use susceptibility maps generated using a generalized additive model (GAM). As model response variables, we used active layer detachments (ALDs) and mud ejections (MEs), both formed by high PWP conditions at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Canada. As explanatory variables, we used the terrain characteristics elevation, slope, distance to water, topographic position index (TPI), potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), distance to water, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; ME model only), geology, and topographic wetness index (TWI). ALDs and MEs were accurately modelled in terms of susceptibility to disturbance across the study area. The susceptibility models demonstrate that ALDs are most probable on hill slopes with gradual to steep slopes and relatively low PISR, whereas MEs are associated with higher elevation areas, lower slope angles, and areas relatively far from water. Based on these results, this method identifies areas that may be sensitive to high PWPs and helps improve our understanding of geomorphic sensitivity to permafrost degradation.

  19. Determining the terrain characteristics related to the surface expression of subsurface water pressurization in permafrost landscapes using susceptibility modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Holloway

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Warming of the Arctic in recent years has led to changes in the active layer and uppermost permafrost. In particular, thick active layer formation results in more frequent thaw of the ice-rich transient layer. This addition of moisture, as well as infiltration from late season precipitation, results in high pore-water pressures (PWPs at the base of the active layer and can potentially result in landscape degradation. To predict areas that have the potential for subsurface pressurization, we use susceptibility maps generated using a generalized additive model (GAM. As model response variables, we used active layer detachments (ALDs and mud ejections (MEs, both formed by high PWP conditions at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Canada. As explanatory variables, we used the terrain characteristics elevation, slope, distance to water, topographic position index (TPI, potential incoming solar radiation (PISR, distance to water, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; ME model only, geology, and topographic wetness index (TWI. ALDs and MEs were accurately modelled in terms of susceptibility to disturbance across the study area. The susceptibility models demonstrate that ALDs are most probable on hill slopes with gradual to steep slopes and relatively low PISR, whereas MEs are associated with higher elevation areas, lower slope angles, and areas relatively far from water. Based on these results, this method identifies areas that may be sensitive to high PWPs and helps improve our understanding of geomorphic sensitivity to permafrost degradation.

  20. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard | Yakubu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)