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Sample records for modeling examples kobayashi

  1. What is the value of the neutron electric dipole moment in the Kobayashi-Maskawa model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khriplovich, I.B.; Zhitnitsky, A.R.

    1982-01-01

    A new mechanism is considered due to which the neutron electric dipole moment Dsub(n) aries in the Kobayashi-Maskawa model. This mechanism leads to the estimate Dsub(n) approx. equal to 2 x 10 -32 e cm, by two orders of magnitude larger than the contributions considered previously. (orig.)

  2. Kobayashi-Maskawa type of hard-CP-violation model with three-generation Majorana neutrinos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, H.

    1986-01-01

    Within the framework of the Kobayashi-Maskawa (KM) type of hard CP-violation model with three-generation Majorana neutrinos, we point out that on-shell CP-violation phenomena (i.e., CP-violating effects taking place in on-shell processes), which are characteristic of Majorana neutrinos, can only occur in total-lepton-number-conserving reactions, and are unobservably small. Off-shell CP-nonconserving effects which arise from gauge bosons are undetectable, but those which are mediated by Higgs bosons could be seen in certain rare decays. It is emphasized that CP-odd effects intrinsic to Majorana behavior depend not only on the two CP-violating Majorana phases but also on the KM phase. We then demonstrate why the KM model, which has rich implications in the hadronic sector, leads to no observable CP-violating effects in leptonic processes (except in neutrino oscillations) directly related to the CP-odd KM phase

  3. Effect of an extended Higgs sector on the electric dipole moment of a single quark in the Kobayashi-Maskawa model of CP violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escobar, C.O.; Pleites, V.

    1983-01-01

    We argue that the existence of flavor-changing Higgs-boson couplings in an extended Higgs sector, respecting the experimental bounds on such processes, is sufficient to increase by some orders of magnitude the electric dipole moment of a single quark in the Kobayashi-Maskawa model of CP violation

  4. π ± ↔ K ± meson-vacuum transitions (oscillations) in diagram approach in the model of dynamical analogy of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beshtoev, Kh.M.

    1999-01-01

    The elements of the theory of vacuum oscillations and the model of dynamical expansion of the theory of weak interactions working at the tree level, i.e. the model of dynamical analogy of Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrices and its further development, are given. It is shown that the quarks and massive vector bosons must be structural and these structural particles (subparticles) must interact to generate quark and vector boson masses. In this case the problem of singularity cancellations does not arise in this model. It is also shown that for self-consistence of the theory the weak decays of K-mesons must go through massive vector boson B but not W-boson. In the framework of this model the probability of π ↔ K transitions (oscillations) in the diagram approach is computed. These transitions (oscillations) can be registered through K-decays after transitions of virtual K-mesons to their own mass shell by using their quasielastic strong interactions

  5. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  6. The ECM-backbone of the Lang-Kobayashi equations: A geometric picture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rottschafer, V.; Krauskopf, B.

    2007-01-01

    We perform an analytical study of the external cavity modes of a semiconductor laser subject to conventional optical feedback as modeled by the well-known Lang-Kobayashi equations. Specifically, the bifurcation set is derived in the three-dimensional parameter space of feedback phase, feedback

  7. Spherical harmonic results for the 3D Kobayashi Benchmark suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, P N; Chang, B; Hanebutte, U R

    1999-01-01

    Spherical harmonic solutions are presented for the Kobayashi benchmark suite. The results were obtained with Ardra, a scalable, parallel neutron transport code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The calculations were performed on the IBM ASCI Blue-Pacific computer at LLNL

  8. Some illustrative examples of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bier, V.M.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, we first discuss the view of model uncertainty proposed by Apostolakis. We then present several illustrative examples related to model uncertainty, some of which are not well handled by this formalism. Thus, Apostolakis' approach seems to be well suited to describing some types of model uncertainty, but not all. Since a comprehensive approach for characterizing and quantifying model uncertainty is not yet available, it is hoped that the examples presented here will service as a springboard for further discussion

  9. Spherical Harmonic Solutions to the 3D Kobayashi Benchmark Suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, P.N.; Chang, B.; Hanebutte, U.R.

    1999-01-01

    Spherical harmonic solutions of order 5, 9 and 21 on spatial grids containing up to 3.3 million cells are presented for the Kobayashi benchmark suite. This suite of three problems with simple geometry of pure absorber with large void region was proposed by Professor Kobayashi at an OECD/NEA meeting in 1996. Each of the three problems contains a source, a void and a shield region. Problem 1 can best be described as a box in a box problem, where a source region is surrounded by a square void region which itself is embedded in a square shield region. Problems 2 and 3 represent a shield with a void duct. Problem 2 having a straight and problem 3 a dog leg shaped duct. A pure absorber and a 50% scattering case are considered for each of the three problems. The solutions have been obtained with Ardra, a scalable, parallel neutron transport code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The Ardra code takes advantage of a two-level parallelization strategy, which combines message passing between processing nodes and thread based parallelism amongst processors on each node. All calculations were performed on the IBM ASCI Blue-Pacific computer at LLNL

  10. Low-frequency fluctuations in vertical cavity lasers: Experiments versus Lang-Kobayashi dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torcini, Alessandro; Barland, Stephane; Giacomelli, Giovanni; Marin, Francesco

    2006-01-01

    The limits of applicability of the Lang-Kobayashi (LK) model for a semiconductor laser with optical feedback are analyzed. The model equations, equipped with realistic values of the parameters, are investigated below the solitary laser threshold where low-frequency fluctuations (LFF's) are usually observed. The numerical findings are compared with experimental data obtained for the selected polarization mode from a vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) subject to polarization selective external feedback. The comparison reveals the bounds within which the dynamics of the LK model can be considered as realistic. In particular, it clearly demonstrates that the deterministic LK model, for realistic values of the linewidth enhancement factor α, reproduces the LFF's only as a transient dynamics towards one of the stationary modes with maximal gain. A reasonable reproduction of real data from VCSEL's can be obtained only by considering the noisy LK or alternatively deterministic LK model for extremely high α values

  11. Experimental Constraints on the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa Matrix

    CERN Document Server

    Mele, S

    2000-01-01

    The LEP investigation of the Bd and Bs oscillations and of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element |Vub| improve the constraints on the other elements of this matrix. From a fit to the experim ental data and the theory calculations it is possible to determine the vertex of the unitarity triangle as: rho =0.155 -0.105} +0.115 eta =0.383 -0.060 +0.063. The corresponding values of its angl es, in their customary definition in terms of sines for alpha and beta, are: sin(2 alpha) = 0.08 -0.50 +0.43 sin(2 beta) = 0.75 +/- 0.10 gamma = 68 +/- 15o The fit also yields indirect information on the compatibility with zero of the CP violating phase of the matrix, on some non-perturbative QCD parameters and on the Bs oscillation frequency.

  12. Best Practice Examples of Circular Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guldmann, Eva

    Best practice examples of circular business models are presented in this report. The purpose is to inform and inspire interested readers, in particular companies that aspire to examine the potentials of the circular economy. Circular business models in two different sectors are examined, namely...... the textile and clothing sector as well as the durable goods sector. In order to appreciate the notion of circular business models, the basics of the circular economy are outlined along with three frameworks for categorizing the various types of circular business models. The frameworks take point of departure......, and to look for circular business opportunities in this flow of goods and value, is key in a circular economy. Establishing new or closer collaboration with stakeholders within or beyond the traditional supply chain is another important skill in creating circular business models. Many of the examined...

  13. Continuum modeling an approach through practical examples

    CERN Document Server

    Muntean, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    This book develops continuum modeling skills and approaches the topic from three sides: (1) derivation of global integral laws together with the associated local differential equations, (2) design of constitutive laws and (3) modeling boundary processes. The focus of this presentation lies on many practical examples covering aspects such as coupled flow, diffusion and reaction in porous media or microwave heating of a pizza, as well as traffic issues in bacterial colonies and energy harvesting from geothermal wells. The target audience comprises primarily graduate students in pure and applied mathematics as well as working practitioners in engineering who are faced by nonstandard rheological topics like those typically arising in the food industry.

  14. Model reference adaptive systems some examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landau, I. D.; Sinner, E.; Courtiol, B.

    1972-01-01

    A direct design method is derived for several single-input single-output model reference adaptive systems (M.R.A.S.). The approach used helps to clarify the various steps involved in a design, which utilizes the hyperstability concept. An example of a multiinput, multioutput M.R.A.S. is also discussed. Attention is given to the problem of a series compensator. It is pointed out that a series compensator which contains derivative terms must generally be introduced in the adaptation mechanism in order to assure asymptotic hyperstability. Results obtained by the simulation of a M.R.A.S. on an analog computer are also presented.

  15. 12 CFR 573.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Model privacy form and examples. 573.2 Section... FINANCIAL INFORMATION § 573.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a) Model privacy form. Use of the model... privacy form is not required. (b) Examples. The examples in this part are not exclusive. Compliance with...

  16. 12 CFR 332.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Model privacy form and examples. 332.2 Section... POLICY PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION § 332.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a) Model... this part, although use of the model privacy form is not required. (b) Examples. The examples in this...

  17. 16 CFR 313.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Model privacy form and examples. 313.2... PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION § 313.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a) Model privacy form..., although use of the model privacy form is not required. (b) Examples. The examples in this part are not...

  18. 12 CFR 716.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Model privacy form and examples. 716.2 Section... PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION § 716.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a) Model privacy form..., although use of the model privacy form is not required. (b) Examples. The examples in this part are not...

  19. 17 CFR 160.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... examples. 160.2 Section 160.2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION § 160.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a) Model privacy form..., although use of the model privacy form is not required. (b) Examples. The examples in this part are not...

  20. 12 CFR 216.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Model privacy form and examples. 216.2 Section... PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION (REGULATION P) § 216.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a... of this part, although use of the model privacy form is not required. (b) Examples. The examples in...

  1. Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa-favored B decays to a scalar meson and a D meson

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zou, Zhi-Tian; Li, Ying [Yantai University, Department of Physics, Yantai (China); Liu, Xin [Jiangsu Normal University, School of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Xuzhou (China)

    2017-12-15

    In this work, we attempt to study the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa-favored B → anti DS (''S'' denoting the scalar meson) decays within the perturbative QCD approach at the leading order and the leading power. Although the light scalar mesons are widely perceived as primarily the four-quark bound states, in practice it is hard for us to make quantitative predictions based on the four-quark picture for light scalars. Hence, we calculate the decays with light scalars in the two-quark model. For the decays with scalar mesons above 1 GeV, we have explored two possible scenarios, depending on whether the light scalars are treated as the lowest lying q anti q states or four-quark particles. In total, we calculated the branching fractions of 72 decay modes, and most of them are in the range 10{sup -4}-10{sup -7}, which are measurable in the on-going LHCb experiment and the forthcoming Belle-II experiment. Moreover, since in the standard model these decays occur only through tree operators and have no CP asymmetries, any deviation will be a signal of new physics beyond the standard model. Despite large uncertainties induced by nonperturbative parameters and corrections of high order and high power, our results and discussions will be useful for the on-going LHCb and the forthcoming Belle-II experiments. (orig.)

  2. Precision measurements of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa angle $\\gamma$ at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2017-01-01

    The Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) angle $\\gamma$ is still the least known angle of the Unitarity Triangle, and is the only one that can be accessed exclusively through tree-level $B$-meson decays. Its precise determination is of crucial importance to identify possible effects beyond the Standard Model in global CKM fits. Powerful constraints on $\\gamma$ are obtained from the analysis of $B^{\\pm} \\to D^{0} K^{\\pm}$ decays, where the $D^{0}$ meson is reconstructed in the $K^+K^-$ and $\\pi^+\\pi^-$ final states; the latest results using the Run-1 (2011 and 2012) and Run-2 (2015 and 2016) LHCb datasets are presented. The measurement of $B^{\\pm} \\to D^{*0}K^{\\pm}$ decays using a novel partial reconstruction method is also presented, where both $D^{*0} \\to D^0\\pi^0$ and $D^{*0} \\to D^0\\gamma$ decays are considered. These world’s best results contribute to the ultimate goal of reaching degree-level precision on $\\gamma$, via the exploitation of all possible decay modes and techniques.&a...

  3. Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan

    2014-06-01

    We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.

  4. Some examples of instantons in sigma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kogan, Ya.; Markushevich, D.; Morozov, A.; Ol'shanetskya, M.; Perelomov, A.; Roslij, A.

    1988-01-01

    Instantons on some manifolds of type K3 are described. Zero modes in two-dimensional sigma models on such manifolds are counted. The necessary facts on K3 manifolds are exposed in monographs. Instanton configurations are described

  5. Some examples of instantons in sigma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kogan, Ya.; Markushevich, D.; Morozov, A.; Ol'shanetskij, M.; Perelomov, A.; Roslyj, A.

    1988-01-01

    Holomorphic instantons of arbitrary generation in manifolds and their boson and fermion zero modes are determined within the scope of the sigma model. General formulae for their quantitative evaluation are presented. Zero modes of spherical and toroidal instantons are discussed in detail

  6. Geometry and analysis on manifolds in memory of professor Shoshichi Kobayashi

    CERN Document Server

    Mabuchi, Toshiki; Maeda, Yoshiaki; Noguchi, Junjiro; Weinstein, Alan

    2015-01-01

    This volume is dedicated to the memory of Shoshichi Kobayashi, and gathers contributions from distinguished researchers working on topics close to his research areas. The book is organized into three parts, with the first part presenting an overview of Professor Shoshichi Kobayashi’s career. This is followed by two expository course lectures (the second part) on recent topics in extremal Kähler metrics and value distribution theory, which will be helpful for graduate students in mathematics interested in new topics in complex geometry and complex analysis. Lastly, the third part of the volume collects authoritative research papers on differential geometry and complex analysis. Professor Shoshichi Kobayashi was a recognized international leader in the areas of differential and complex geometry. He contributed crucial ideas that are still considered fundamental in these fields. The book will be of interest to researchers in the fields of differential geometry, complex geometry, and several complex variables ...

  7. Learning from Video Modeling Examples: Does Gender Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogerheide, Vincent; Loyens, Sofie M. M.; van Gog, Tamara

    2016-01-01

    Online learning from video modeling examples, in which a human model demonstrates and explains how to perform a learning task, is an effective instructional method that is increasingly used nowadays. However, model characteristics such as gender tend to differ across videos, and the model-observer similarity hypothesis suggests that such…

  8. Reflections from European examples on the teaching of modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Cabassut

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Recommendations of European parliament and Rocard‘s report invite to develop the teaching of modelling. The European Commission programmes like LEMA, PRIMAS and STEAM support the development of resources, training and research on the teaching of modelling. We will study European examples about the teaching of modelling, from secondary and tertiary education and from pre-service and in-service teachers training. They point the different levels of determination and the different didactic questions related to students and teachers practices and to mathematical and didactical organisations. The example of the European program LEMA illustrates a teacher training course on modelling and the difficulties to implement a teaching of modelling. We will present some recent results of research bringing challenges for the teaching of modelling. The idea of this talk is to take examples in Europa about the teaching of modelling in order to reflect on this teaching. In a first time we will browse the institutional context from global to local where the teaching of modelling takes place by giving examples from Europe. Then we develop one of these examples, the LEMA project, in order to reflect on teaching of modelling by illustrating with recent researches.

  9. Progress in liquid crystal (LC) science and technology in honor of Kobayashi's 80th birthday

    CERN Document Server

    Kwok, Hoi-Sing; Ong, Hiap L

    2013-01-01

    The presence of liquid crystal displays (LCDs) marks the advances in mobile phones and television development over the last few decades. Japanese companies were the first to commercialize passive-matrix TNLCDs and, later on, high-resolution activematrix LCDs.Prof. Shunsuke Kobayashi has made essential contributions to Japan's prominence in LCD development throughout this period. He is well-known not only for his own groundbreaking research, but also for the training of many prominent figures in the display industry, both in Japan and in other countries.This book brings together many prominent

  10. Standard Model physics

    CERN Multimedia

    Altarelli, Guido

    1999-01-01

    Introduction structure of gauge theories. The QEDand QCD examples. Chiral theories. The electroweak theory. Spontaneous symmetry breaking. The Higgs mechanism Gauge boson and fermion masses. Yukawa coupling. Charges current couplings. The Cabibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix and CP violation. Neutral current couplings. The Glasow-Iliopoulos-Maiani mechanism. Gauge boson and Higgs coupling. Radiative corrections and loops. Cancellation of the chiral anomaly. Limits on the Higgs comparaison. Problems of the Standard Model. Outlook.

  11. Measure of CP nonconservation and its consequence on the structure of the Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamzaoui, C.

    1988-01-01

    By use of unitarity of the Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix, the rephasing-invariant measure δ/sub KM/ of CP nonconservation is evaluated in terms of the modulus squared of four matrix elements, which are taken as the four independent parameters. The striking feature of such a formulation is that the positivity of δ/sub KM/ 2 gives both upper and lower bounds on the matrix elements chemical bondV/sub c//sub d/chemical bond, chemical bondV/sub c//sub s/chemical bond, chemical bondV/sub t//sub d/chemical bond, and chemical bondV/sub t//sub s/chemical bond

  12. Dynamical analogy of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrices (with CP-violation)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beshtoev, Kh.M.

    1997-01-01

    The dynamical analogy of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrices is built, i.e., the phenomenological expansion of the weak interaction theory by the inclusion of four doublets of the charged-vector bosons B ± , C ± , D ± , E ± , leading to transitions between the quark families, and of four doublets of the charged-vector bosons X 1 ± , X 2 ± , X 3 ± , X 4 ± , leading to transitions between the lepton families, is suggested. The bosons E ± , X 4 ± realize CP-violation. This expansion works only at a tree level. An estimation of the boson masses is performed. The quasi-elastic processes proceeding through an exchange of the bosons and the production cross sections are given

  13. A comparison theorem of the Kobayashi metric and the Bergman metric on a class of Reinhardt domains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiping Yin.

    1990-03-01

    A comparison theorem for the Kobayashi and Bergman metric is given on a class of Reinhardt domains in C n . In the meantime, we obtain a class of complete invariant Kaehler metrics for these domains of the special cases. (author). 5 refs

  14. Tecnomatix Plant Simulation modeling and programming by means of examples

    CERN Document Server

    Bangsow, Steffen

    2015-01-01

    This book systematically introduces the development of simulation models as well as the implementation and evaluation of simulation experiments with Tecnomatix Plant Simulation. It deals with all users of Plant Simulation, who have more complex tasks to handle. It also looks for an easy entry into the program. Particular attention has been paid to introduce the simulation flow language SimTalk and its use in various areas of the simulation. The author demonstrates with over 200 examples how to combine the blocks for simulation models and how to deal with SimTalk for complex control and analys

  15. Geopressure modeling from petrophysical data: An example from East Kalimantan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herkommer, M.A. (Petrospec Computer Corp., Richardson, TX (United States))

    1994-07-01

    Localized models of abnormal formation pressure (geopressure) are important economic and safety tools frequently used for well planning and drilling operations. Simplified computer-based procedures have been developed that permit these models to be developed more rapidly and with greater accuracy. These techniques are broadly applicable to basins throughout the world where abnormal formation pressures occur. An example from the Attaka field of East Kalimantan, southeast Asia, shows how geopressure models are developed. Using petrophysical and engineering data, empirical correlations between observed pressure and petrophysical logs can be created by computer-assisted data-fitting techniques. These correlations serve as the basis for models of the geopressure. By performing repeated analyses on wells at various locations, contour maps on the top of abnormal geopressure can be created. Methods that are simple in their development and application make the task of geopressure estimation less formidable to the geologist and petroleum engineer. Further, more accurate estimates can significantly improve drilling speeds while reducing the incidence of stuck pipe, kicks, and blowouts. In general, geopressure estimates are used in all phases of drilling operations: To develop mud plans and specify equipment ratings, to assist in the recognition of geopressured formations and determination of mud weights, and to improve predictions at offset locations and geologically comparable areas.

  16. Learning from video modeling examples : Effects of seeing the human model's face

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gog, Tamara; Verveer, Ilse; Verveer, Lise

    2014-01-01

    Video modeling examples in which a human(-like) model shows learners how to perform a task are increasingly used in education, as they have become very easy to create and distribute in e-learning environments. However, little is known about design guidelines to optimize learning from video modeling

  17. Artifacts in global atmospheric modeling: Two recent examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Mark G.; Landgraf, Jochen; Jöckel, Patrick; Eaton, Brian

    To what extent can we trust the results of global atmospheric models? It is well known that a substantial degree of uncertainty exists in the parameters used in these models, for instance in parameterizations of complex physical processes such as convection and in reaction rates for photochemical models. Anyone familiar with computer work is also well aware of occasional “bugs,” such as an “l” typed where a “j” was intended.However, many newcomers to the field of atmospheric modeling (or other similar Earth systems modeling endeavors) are not yet very familiar with the technical side of modeling, have little or no formal education in computer programming, and are instead expected to learn the art of programming on the job. These researchers are often unaware of some of the types of artifacts that can be generated by the software and hardware they use.

  18. Testing the model-observer similarity hypothesis with text-based worked examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogerheide, V.; Loyens, S.M.M.; Jadi, Fedora; Vrins, Anna; van Gog, T.

    2017-01-01

    Example-based learning is a very effective and efficient instructional strategy for novices. It can be implemented using text-based worked examples that provide a written demonstration of how to perform a task, or (video) modelling examples in which an instructor (the ‘model’) provides a

  19. Projective Modeling and System Change: Reservoir Management Examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a projective modeling approach for ecological/ environmental systems is introduced. The basic idea behind projective modeling is to define (possible) future output behavior and to use identifiable timevarying system parameters, representing underlying sub-processes, as an (additional)

  20. Transition from Model to Proof: Example of Water Treatment Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güler, Gürsel

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to research the prospective mathematics teachers' ability to construct a mathematical model for a real life problem and to prove these models by generalizing them to use in similar situations. The study was conducted with 129 prospective teachers determined on a volunteering basis. The data were obtained with the help of…

  1. Q Value of the Superallowed Decay of 46V and Its Influence on Vud and the Unitarity of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa Matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savard, G.; Buchinger, F.; Crawford, J.E.; Gulick, S.; Lee, J.K.P.; Clark, J.A.; Sharma, H.; Sharma, K.S.; Hardy, J.C.; Hecht, A.A.; Levand, A.F.; Scielzo, N.D.; Tanihata, I.; Villari, A.C.C.; Wang, Y.

    2005-01-01

    The masses of the radioactive nuclei 46 V and its decay daughter 46 Ti have been measured with the Canadian Penning Trap on-line Penning trap mass spectrometer to a precision of 1x10 -8 . A Q EC value of 7052.90(40) keV for the superallowed beta decay of 46 V is obtained from the difference of these two masses. With this precise Q value, the Ft value for this decay is determined with improved precision. An investigation of an earlier Q-value measurement for 46 V uncovers a set of 7 measurements that cannot be reconciled with modern data and affects previous evaluations of V ud from superallowed Fermi decays. A new evaluation, adding our new data and removing the discredited subset, yields new values for G V and V ud . When combined with recent results for V us , this yields modified constraints for the unitarity of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix and other extensions of the standard model

  2. Modelling bioaugmentation in unsaturated porous media: The linuron herbicide example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Dechesne, Arnaud; Binning, Philip John

    2010-01-01

    To protect groundwater resources against pesticides, bioaugmentation with microorganisms immobilized in solid carriers has been considered as a soil remediation strategy. We have developed a mathematical model to assess this bioremediation approach to remove the pesticide linuron from soils...

  3. Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

    2015-03-01

    System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

  4. 12 CFR 40.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 40.2 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PRIVACY OF CONSUMER... privacy form in Appendix A of this part, consistent with the instructions in Appendix A, constitutes compliance with the notice content requirements of §§ 40.6 and 40.7 of this part, although use of the model...

  5. System of systems dependability – Theoretical models and applications examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bukowski, L.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this article is to generalise the concept of "dependability" in a way, that could be applied to all types of systems, especially the system of systems (SoS), operating under both normal and abnormal work conditions. In order to quantitatively assess the dependability we applied service continuity oriented approach. This approach is based on the methodology of service engineering and is closely related to the idea of resilient enterprise as well as to the concept of disruption-tolerant operation. On this basis a framework for evaluation of SoS dependability has been developed in a static as well as dynamic approach. The static model is created as a fuzzy logic-oriented advisory expert system and can be particularly useful at the design stage of SoS. The dynamic model is based on the risk oriented approach, and can be useful both at the design stage and for management of SoS. The integrated model of dependability can also form the basis for a new definition of the dependability engineering, namely as a superior discipline to reliability engineering, safety engineering, security engineering, resilience engineering and risk engineering. - Highlights: • A framework for evaluation of system of systems dependability is presented. • The model is based on the service continuity concept and consists of two parts. • The static part can be created as a fuzzy logic-oriented advisory expert system. • The dynamic, risk oriented part, is related to the concept of throughput chain. • A new definition of dependability engineering is proposed.

  6. An example of debris-flows hazard modeling using GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Melelli

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a GIS-based model for predicting debris-flows occurrence. The availability of two different digital datasets and the use of a Digital Elevation Model (at a given scale have greatly enhanced our ability to quantify and to analyse the topography in relation to debris-flows. In particular, analysing the relationship between debris-flows and the various causative factors provides new understanding of the mechanisms. We studied the contact zone between the calcareous basement and the fluvial-lacustrine infill adjacent northern area of the Terni basin (Umbria, Italy, and identified eleven basins and corresponding alluvial fans. We suggest that accumulations of colluvium in topographic hollows, whatever the sources might be, should be considered potential debris-flow source areas. In order to develop a susceptibility map for the entire area, an index was calculated from the number of initiation locations in each causative factor unit divided by the areal extent of that unit within the study area. This index identifies those units that produce the most debris-flows in each Representative Elementary Area (REA. Finally, the results are presented with the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, and the need for further research.

  7. [The modeling of science: the example of North America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morán-Mendoza, Angel Onofre

    2004-01-01

    Science is a complex human activity that is modeled by a myriad of factors beyond the researcher's control, especially in the medical sciences, where human and economic resources, as well as bioethical and regulatory factors play an important role. Bioethical and regulatory factors are similar between the US, Canada and Mexico, however these countries differ markedly in their economic and human resources: In Canada and the US there are government institutions (CIHR and NIH, respectively) to specifically provide funding to health research, while in Mexico the principal source of funding for all sciences is the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT). The NIH budget for clinical research alone during 2002 was over 7 US billion dollars; the CIHR funding for health research projects was approximately 300 US million dollars, while the support from CONACYT for research and infrastructure in health was aproximately 70 US million dollars. In the year 2000, the US had 8.17 researchers in all areas per 1,000 habitants--of the economically active population (EAP)--, Canada had 5.78 and Mexico 0.55 researchers. These factors impact greatly the scientific productivity: While Canada and the US contributed in 1991-1998 with 31.4% of the world's scientific productivity--measured as the number of articles published--, Latin America contributed with only 2.4% of the world's productivity. This paper also discusses other factors that model science, scientific inquiry, and scientific activity such as, the role of the industry, the media and scientific journals. How these factors influence the Medical Sciences in North America is exemplified herein.

  8. Evidence for B(0) --> rho(0)rho(0) decays and implications for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa angle alpha.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubert, B; Bona, M; Boutigny, D; Karyotakis, Y; Lees, J P; Poireau, V; Prudent, X; Tisserand, V; Zghiche, A; Grauges, E; Palano, A; Chen, J C; Qi, N D; Rong, G; Wang, P; Zhu, Y S; Eigen, G; Ofte, I; Stugu, B; Abrams, G S; Battaglia, M; Brown, D N; Button-Shafer, J; Cahn, R N; Groysman, Y; Jacobsen, R G; Kadyk, J A; Kerth, L T; Kolomensky, Yu G; Kukartsev, G; Pegna, D Lopes; Lynch, G; Mir, L M; Orimoto, T J; Osipenkov, I; Pripstein, M; Roe, N A; Ronan, M T; Tackmann, K; Wenzel, W A; Sanchez, P Del Amo; Barrett, M; Harrison, T J; Hart, A J; Hawkes, C M; Watson, A T; Held, T; Koch, H; Lewandowski, B; Pelizaeus, M; Peters, K; Schroeder, T; Steinke, M; Boyd, J T; Burke, J P; Cottingham, W N; Walker, D; Asgeirsson, D J; Cuhadar-Donszelmann, T; Fulsom, B G; Hearty, C; Knecht, N S; Mattison, T S; McKenna, J A; Khan, A; Kyberd, P; Saleem, M; Sherwood, D J; Teodorescu, L; Blinov, V E; Bukin, A D; Druzhinin, V P; Golubev, V B; Onuchin, A P; Serednyakov, S I; Skovpen, Yu I; Solodov, E P; Todyshev, K Yu; Bondioli, M; Bruinsma, M; Chao, M; Curry, S; Eschrich, I; Kirkby, D; Lankford, A J; Lund, P; Mandelkern, M; Martin, E C; Stoker, D P; Abachi, S; Buchanan, C; Foulkes, S D; Gary, J W; Liu, F; Long, O; Shen, B C; Zhang, L; Hill, E J; Paar, H P; Rahatlou, S; Sharma, V; Berryhill, J W; Campagnari, C; Cunha, A; Dahmes, B; Hong, T M; Kovalskyi, D; Richman, J D; Beck, T W; Eisner, A M; Flacco, C J; Heusch, C A; Kroseberg, J; Lockman, W S; Schalk, T; Schumm, B A; Seiden, A; Williams, D C; Wilson, M G; Winstrom, L O; Chen, E; Cheng, C H; Dvoretskii, A; Fang, F; Hitlin, D G; Narsky, I; Piatenko, T; Porter, F C; Mancinelli, G; Meadows, B T; Mishra, K; Sokoloff, M D; Blanc, F; Bloom, P C; Chen, S; Ford, W T; Hirschauer, J F; Kreisel, A; Nagel, M; Nauenberg, U; Olivas, A; Smith, J G; Ulmer, K A; Wagner, S R; Zhang, J; Chen, A; Eckhart, E A; Soffer, A; Toki, W H; Wilson, R J; Winklmeier, F; Zeng, Q; Altenburg, D D; Feltresi, E; Hauke, A; Jasper, H; Merkel, J; Petzold, A; Spaan, B; Wacker, K; Brandt, T; Klose, V; Lacker, H M; Mader, W F; Nogowski, R; Schubert, J; Schubert, K R; Schwierz, R; Sundermann, J E; Volk, A; Bernard, D; Bonneaud, G R; Latour, E; Thiebaux, Ch; Verderi, M; Clark, P J; Gradl, W; Muheim, F; Playfer, S; Robertson, A I; Xie, Y; Andreotti, M; Bettoni, D; Bozzi, C; Calabrese, R; Cibinetto, G; Luppi, E; Negrini, M; Petrella, A; Piemontese, L; Prencipe, E; Anulli, F; Baldini-Ferroli, R; Calcaterra, A; de Sangro, R; Finocchiaro, G; Pacetti, S; Patteri, P; Peruzzi, I M; Piccolo, M; Rama, M; Zallo, A; Buzzo, A; Contri, R; Vetere, M Lo; Macri, M M; Monge, M R; Passaggio, S; Patrignani, C; Robutti, E; Santroni, A; Tosi, S; Chaisanguanthum, K S; Morii, M; Wu, J; Dubitzky, R S; Marks, J; Schenk, S; Uwer, U; Bard, D J; Dauncey, P D; Flack, R L; Nash, J A; Nikolich, M B; Vazquez, W Panduro; Behera, P K; Chai, X; Charles, M J; Mallik, U; Meyer, N T; Ziegler, V; Cochran, J; Crawley, H B; Dong, L; Eyges, V; Meyer, W T; Prell, S; Rosenberg, E I; Rubin, A E; Gritsan, A V; Lae, C K; Denig, A G; Fritsch, M; Schott, G; Arnaud, N; Davier, M; Grosdidier, G; Höcker, A; Lepeltier, V; Diberder, F Le; Lutz, A M; Pruvot, S; Rodier, S; Roudeau, P; Schune, M H; Serrano, J; Sordini, V; Stocchi, A; Wang, W F; Wormser, G; Lange, D J; Wright, D M; Chavez, C A; Forster, I J; Fry, J R; Gabathuler, E; Gamet, R; Hutchcroft, D E; Payne, D J; Schofield, K C; Touramanis, C; Bevan, A J; George, K A; Lodovico, F Di; Menges, W; Sacco, R; Cowan, G; Flaecher, H U; Hopkins, D A; Jackson, P S; McMahon, T R; Salvatore, F; Wren, A C; Brown, D N; Davis, C L; Allison, J; Barlow, N R; Barlow, R J; Chia, Y M; Edgar, C L; Lafferty, G D; West, T J; Yi, J I; Chen, C; Hulsbergen, W D; Jawahery, A; Roberts, D A; Simi, G; Blaylock, G; Dallapiccola, C; Hertzbach, S S; Li, X; Moore, T B; Salvati, E; Saremi, S; Cowan, R; Sciolla, G; Sekula, S J; Spitznagel, M; Taylor, F; Yamamoto, R K; Kim, H; McLachlin, S E; Patel, P M; Robertson, S H; Lazzaro, A; Lombardo, V; Palombo, F; Bauer, J M; Cremaldi, L; Eschenburg, V; Godang, R; Kroeger, R; Sanders, D A; Summers, D J; Zhao, H W; Brunet, S; Côté, D; Simard, M; Taras, P; Viaud, F B; Nicholson, H; Cavallo, N; Nardo, G De; Fabozzi, F; Gatto, C; Lista, L; Monorchio, D; Paolucci, P; Piccolo, D; Sciacca, C; Baak, M A; Raven, G; Snoek, H L; Jessop, C P; Losecco, J M; Benelli, G; Corwin, L A; Gan, K K; Honscheid, K; Hufnagel, D; Kagan, H; Kass, R; Morris, J P; Rahimi, A M; Regensburger, J J; Ter-Antonyan, R; Wong, Q K; Blount, N L; Brau, J; Frey, R; Igonkina, O; Kolb, J A; Lu, M; Potter, C T; Rahmat, R; Sinev, N B; Strom, D; Strube, J; Torrence, E; Gaz, A; Margoni, M; Morandin, M; Pompili, A; Posocco, M; Rotondo, M; Simonetto, F; Stroili, R; Voci, C; Ben-Haim, E; Briand, H; Chauveau, J; David, P; Buono, L Del; de la Vaissière, Ch; Hamon, O; Hartfiel, B L; Leruste, Ph; Malclès, J; Ocariz, J; Gladney, L; Biasini, M

    2007-03-16

    We search for the decays B(0) --> rho(0)rho(0), B(0) --> rho(0)f(0)(980), and B(0) --> f(0)(980)f(0)(980) in a sample of about 384 x 10(6) Upsilon(4S) --> BB[over] decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e(+)e(-) collider at Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. We find evidence for B(0) --> rho(0)rho(0) with 3.5 sigma significance and measure the branching fraction B = (1.07 +/- 0.33 +/- 0.19) x 10(-6) and longitudinal polarization fraction f(L) = 0.87 +/- 0.13 +/- 0.04, where the first uncertainty is statistical, and the second is systematic. The uncertainty on the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa quark-mixing matrix unitarity angle alpha due to penguin contributions in B --> rho rho decays is 18 degrees at the 1 sigma level. We also set upper limits on the B(0) --> rho(0)f(0)(980) and B(0) --> f(0)(980)f(0)(980) decay rates.

  9. Showing a model's eye movements in examples does not improve learning of problem-solving tasks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Marlen, Tim; van Wermeskerken, Margot; Jarodzka, Halszka; van Gog, Tamara

    2016-01-01

    Eye movement modeling examples (EMME) are demonstrations of a computer-based task by a human model (e.g., a teacher), with the model's eye movements superimposed on the task to guide learners' attention. EMME have been shown to enhance learning of perceptual classification tasks; however, it is an

  10. Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Railsback; Bret Harvey

    2011-01-01

    Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers’ understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics...

  11. Training Self-Regulated Learning Skills with Video Modeling Examples: Do Task-Selection Skills Transfer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raaijmakers, Steven F.; Baars, Martine; Schaap, Lydia; Paas, Fred; van Merriënboer, Jeroen; van Gog, Tamara

    2018-01-01

    Self-assessment and task-selection skills are crucial in self-regulated learning situations in which students can choose their own tasks. Prior research suggested that training with video modeling examples, in which another person (the model) demonstrates and explains the cyclical process of problem-solving task performance, self-assessment, and…

  12. Fuzzy interaction modelling for participants in innovation development: approaches and examples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHERNOV Vladimir

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the interaction problems of the participants in innovative development at the regional level. Mathematical approaches and formulations for mode lling, such as the interaction on the basis of game approaches and the theory of fuzzy sets, have been proposed. In particular, the interaction model of innovative participants in the region, considered as a fuzzy coalition game, is presented. Its theoretical justification and an example of practical calculations are given. Further, the methodology of interaction modelling is considered , taking into account the motives of the participants in innovative development when forming fuzzy coalitions. An example of the corresponding calculations is also given. Also, the interaction model of "state-regions" in the interpretation of the fuzzy hierarchical game is proposed and described. The features of its solution are described and an example of calculations is presented.

  13. Models for mapping potential habitat at landscape scales: an example using northern spotted owls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    William C. McComb; Michael T. McGrath; Thomas A. Spies; David. Vesely

    2002-01-01

    We are assessing the potential for current and alternative policies in the Oregon Coast Range to affect habitat capability for a suite of forest resources. We provide an example of a spatially explicit habitat capability model for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina)to illustrate the approach we are taking to assess potential changes...

  14. Learning to Recognize Actions From Limited Training Examples Using a Recurrent Spiking Neural Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Priyadarshini; Srinivasa, Narayan

    2018-01-01

    A fundamental challenge in machine learning today is to build a model that can learn from few examples. Here, we describe a reservoir based spiking neural model for learning to recognize actions with a limited number of labeled videos. First, we propose a novel encoding, inspired by how microsaccades influence visual perception, to extract spike information from raw video data while preserving the temporal correlation across different frames. Using this encoding, we show that the reservoir generalizes its rich dynamical activity toward signature action/movements enabling it to learn from few training examples. We evaluate our approach on the UCF-101 dataset. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed reservoir achieves 81.3/87% Top-1/Top-5 accuracy, respectively, on the 101-class data while requiring just 8 video examples per class for training. Our results establish a new benchmark for action recognition from limited video examples for spiking neural models while yielding competitive accuracy with respect to state-of-the-art non-spiking neural models. PMID:29551962

  15. Thermodynamic parameters of oxides by the example of periclase in representations of the equilibrium model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maevskii, K. K.; Kinelovskii, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    The results of numerical modeling of thermodynamic parameters of oxides are presented by the example of periclase MgO and its mixtures under shock wave loading. The mixture of components experiencing the phase transition is investigated: quartz, SiO2, silicon nitride Si3N4, aluminum nitride AlN. The calculation results obtained by thermodynamic equilibrium component (TEC) models are compared with both the experimental data and the simulation results obtained by other authors.

  16. Adapting the SCOR model to suit the military: A South African example

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bean, WL

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available weapon systems, namely submarines, helicopters and armoured cars, were investigated. The SCOR v9.0 model (Supply-Chain Council, 2008a) was used to model the various supply chains of the SANDF. During these case studies it was ascertained.... This process category comprises five process elements, namely: Schedule Product Deliveries, Receive Product, Verify Product, Transfer Product and Authorise Supplier Payments. The sourcing of submarines, frigates, aircraft and armour are examples of engineer...

  17. Our calibrated model has poor predictive value: An example from the petroleum industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, J.N.; Ballester, P.J.; Tavassoli, Z.; King, P.R.

    2006-01-01

    It is often assumed that once a model has been calibrated to measurements then it will have some level of predictive capability, although this may be limited. If the model does not have predictive capability then the assumption is that the model needs to be improved in some way. Using an example from the petroleum industry, we show that cases can exit where calibrated models have limited predictive capability. This occurs even when there is no modelling error present. It is also shown that the introduction of a small modelling error can make it impossible to obtain any models with useful predictive capability. We have been unable to find ways of identifying which calibrated models will have some predictive capacity and those which will not

  18. Energy demand modelling: pointing out alternative energy sources. The example of industry in OECD countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renou, P.

    1992-01-01

    This thesis studies energy demand and alternative energy sources in OECD countries. In the first part, the principle models usually used for energy demand modelling. In the second part, the author studies the flexible functional forms (translog, generalized Leontief, generalized quadratic, Fourier) to obtain an estimation of the production function. In the third part, several examples are given, chosen in seven countries (Usa, Japan, Federal Republic of Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada). Energy systems analysis in these countries, can help to choose models and gives informations on alternative energies. 246 refs., 24 figs., 27 tabs

  19. Model for safety reports including descriptive examples; Mall foer saekerhetsrapporter med beskrivande exempel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    Several safety reports will be produced in the process of planning and constructing the system for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Sweden. The present report gives a model, with detailed examples, of how these reports should be organized and what steps they should include. In the near future safety reports will deal with the encapsulation plant and the repository. Later reports will treat operation of the handling systems and the repository.

  20. Radiation transport phenomena and modeling. Part A: Codes; Part B: Applications with examples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorence, L.J. Jr.; Beutler, D.E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Simulation Technology Research Dept.

    1997-09-01

    This report contains the notes from the second session of the 1997 IEEE Nuclear and Space Radiation Effects Conference Short Course on Applying Computer Simulation Tools to Radiation Effects Problems. Part A discusses the physical phenomena modeled in radiation transport codes and various types of algorithmic implementations. Part B gives examples of how these codes can be used to design experiments whose results can be easily analyzed and describes how to calculate quantities of interest for electronic devices.

  1. Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

  2. An example of a diesel generator model with fluctuating engine torque for transient analysis using XTAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orie Sakamoto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In remote site power systems with small diesel generators, weak distribution feeders with diesel generators may suffer from voltage and power fluctuations due to misfiring of the engine cylinder. An electromagnetic transient (EMT program named XTAP is considered to be useful to analyze these phenomena. In this study, a new diesel generator model with example fluctuating engine torque has been developed using XTAP for analyses of small power systems with those diesel engines. The configuration and verification results of the developed model are presented in the paper.

  3. Open data models for smart health interconnected applications: the example of openEHR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demski, Hans; Garde, Sebastian; Hildebrand, Claudia

    2016-10-22

    Smart Health is known as a concept that enhances networking, intelligent data processing and combining patient data with other parameters. Open data models can play an important role in creating a framework for providing interoperable data services that support the development of innovative Smart Health applications profiting from data fusion and sharing. This article describes a model-driven engineering approach based on standardized clinical information models and explores its application for the development of interoperable electronic health record systems. The following possible model-driven procedures were considered: provision of data schemes for data exchange, automated generation of artefacts for application development and native platforms that directly execute the models. The applicability of the approach in practice was examined using the openEHR framework as an example. A comprehensive infrastructure for model-driven engineering of electronic health records is presented using the example of the openEHR framework. It is shown that data schema definitions to be used in common practice software development processes can be derived from domain models. The capabilities for automatic creation of implementation artefacts (e.g., data entry forms) are demonstrated. Complementary programming libraries and frameworks that foster the use of open data models are introduced. Several compatible health data platforms are listed. They provide standard based interfaces for interconnecting with further applications. Open data models help build a framework for interoperable data services that support the development of innovative Smart Health applications. Related tools for model-driven application development foster semantic interoperability and interconnected innovative applications.

  4. Spatial Mixture Modelling for Unobserved Point Processes: Examples in Immunofluorescence Histology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Chunlin; Merl, Daniel; Kepler, Thomas B; West, Mike

    2009-12-04

    We discuss Bayesian modelling and computational methods in analysis of indirectly observed spatial point processes. The context involves noisy measurements on an underlying point process that provide indirect and noisy data on locations of point outcomes. We are interested in problems in which the spatial intensity function may be highly heterogenous, and so is modelled via flexible nonparametric Bayesian mixture models. Analysis aims to estimate the underlying intensity function and the abundance of realized but unobserved points. Our motivating applications involve immunological studies of multiple fluorescent intensity images in sections of lymphatic tissue where the point processes represent geographical configurations of cells. We are interested in estimating intensity functions and cell abundance for each of a series of such data sets to facilitate comparisons of outcomes at different times and with respect to differing experimental conditions. The analysis is heavily computational, utilizing recently introduced MCMC approaches for spatial point process mixtures and extending them to the broader new context here of unobserved outcomes. Further, our example applications are problems in which the individual objects of interest are not simply points, but rather small groups of pixels; this implies a need to work at an aggregate pixel region level and we develop the resulting novel methodology for this. Two examples with with immunofluorescence histology data demonstrate the models and computational methodology.

  5. Assessment of urban thermal stress by UTCI – experimental and modelling studies: an example from Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a new approach to the study of the spatial variability of heat stress in urban areas. The Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI was applied for this purpose. The spatial variability of UTCI at the local scale was studied using examples of urban areas with different sizes and geographical locations. The experimental research on urban heat stress was conducted in Warsaw. The research covers both differences between UTCI in urban to rural areas as well as the variation of heat stress within small residential districts in Warsaw. We found a very large and significant heat stress gradient between downtown Warsaw and rural stations. Spatial variability of UTCI was also observed in microclimate research. A modelling approach was presented based on examples from Warsaw, a city with a population of almost 2 million, as well as examples from several spa towns with populations of up to 40,000 located in various parts of Poland. GIS analysis (ArcGIS for Desktop and IDRISI was applied for this purpose.

  6. Example models of building trust in supply chains of metalurgical enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Gajdzik

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article is an introduction to the notion of building trust in supply chains. Foreign publishers offer many articles connected with trust and some of the most important ones were quoted in this article. In business world there are models based on trust of the companies which are connected with one another and such models are very popular. Trust becomes the key link in the organisation of supply chains. It is one of the basic mechanisms of action co-ordination which provides the correctness of functioning in the whole chain. The growth of importance of trust between the links of the chain is also observed in metallurgy sector. For the purpose of this publication example models of supply chains structures were constructed in which relationships are based on mutual trust with characteristics of the metallurgical sector taken into account.

  7. Biosphere transport of radionuclides. First modelling by using a selected example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bundi, A.

    1984-12-01

    The dispersion of radionuclides in the biosphere and their uptake by man via various nutritional pathways is studied using a compartment model. The sample environment is the area of the lower Limmat and Aare valleys. General considerations of the compartmental description of the biosphere are made. The problem of the description of surface features, in particular soil, sediment and water, is studied in detail using the code BIOPATH. This study is intended to be an example of how a model of the biosphere could be constructed. It is shown that this is a reasonable model to calculate the spreading of radionuclides in the biosphere and that it indicates the relative significance of individual compartments, pathways and radionuclides. Calculated values of doses to man, however, should not be used as reference data for safety analyses. (author)

  8. Impact of B physics on model building and vice versa an example

    CERN Document Server

    Matias, J

    2003-01-01

    We motivate that the start-up of the B factories has opened a new precision flavour physics era, with an important effect on model building. Using as an example a left-right model with spontaneous CP violation, we will show how the inclusion of the new experimental data on B physics observables, together with the old observables coming from kaon physics, has significantly widened our capacity to strongly constrain the parameter space up to the point to exclude models. On the contrary, using certain hypotheses, mainly concerning isospin, we discuss how theory may help us to `test' the data on charged, neutral and mixed $B \\to \\pi K$ decays once experimental errors will be reduced.

  9. Examples of testing global identifiability of biological and biomedical models with the DAISY software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomani, Maria Pia; Audoly, Stefania; Bellu, Giuseppina; D'Angiò, Leontina

    2010-04-01

    DAISY (Differential Algebra for Identifiability of SYstems) is a recently developed computer algebra software tool which can be used to automatically check global identifiability of (linear and) nonlinear dynamic models described by differential equations involving polynomial or rational functions. Global identifiability is a fundamental prerequisite for model identification which is important not only for biological or medical systems but also for many physical and engineering systems derived from first principles. Lack of identifiability implies that the parameter estimation techniques may not fail but any obtained numerical estimates will be meaningless. The software does not require understanding of the underlying mathematical principles and can be used by researchers in applied fields with a minimum of mathematical background. We illustrate the DAISY software by checking the a priori global identifiability of two benchmark nonlinear models taken from the literature. The analysis of these two examples includes comparison with other methods and demonstrates how identifiability analysis is simplified by this tool. Thus we illustrate the identifiability analysis of other two examples, by including discussion of some specific aspects related to the role of observability and knowledge of initial conditions in testing identifiability and to the computational complexity of the software. The main focus of this paper is not on the description of the mathematical background of the algorithm, which has been presented elsewhere, but on illustrating its use and on some of its more interesting features. DAISY is available on the web site http://www.dei.unipd.it/ approximately pia/. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Physical evolution in loop quantum cosmology: The example of the vacuum Bianchi I model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin-Benito, Mercedes; Marugan, Guillermo A. Mena; Pawlowski, Tomasz

    2009-01-01

    We use the vacuum Bianchi I model as an example to investigate the concept of physical evolution in loop quantum cosmology (LQC) in the absence of the massless scalar field which has been used so far in the literature as an internal time. In order to retrieve the system dynamics when no such a suitable clock field is present, we explore different constructions of families of unitarily related partial observables. These observables are parametrized, respectively, by: (i) one of the components of the densitized triad, and (ii) its conjugate momentum; each of them playing the role of an evolution parameter. Exploiting the properties of the considered example, we investigate in detail the domains of applicability of each construction. In both cases the observables possess a neat physical interpretation only in an approximate sense. However, whereas in case (i) such interpretation is reasonably accurate only for a portion of the evolution of the universe, in case (ii) it remains so during all the evolution (at least in the physically interesting cases). The constructed families of observables are next used to describe the evolution of the Bianchi I universe. The performed analysis confirms the robustness of the bounces, also in absence of matter fields, as well as the preservation of the semiclassicality through them. The concept of evolution studied here and the presented construction of observables are applicable to a wide class of models in LQC, including quantizations of the Bianchi I model obtained with other prescriptions for the improved dynamics.

  11. Industrie 4.0 Components - Modeling Examples. Status Report: November 2016

    OpenAIRE

    Braune, A.; Diesner, M.; Hüttemann, G.; Klein, M.; Löwen, U.; Thron, M.; Manger, T.; Okon, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Pünktlich zum Nationalen IT-Gipfel am 16./17.11.2016 in Berlin erscheint der neue Statusreport „Industrie 4.0 – Modelling Examples of Industrie 4.0“ in englischer Sprache. Inhaltlich repräsentiert er den Stand der Arbeiten der Arbeitsgruppe “Modellierungsbeispiele” des Fachausschusses 7.21 “Industrie 4.0 – Begriffe, Referenzmodelle, Architekturkonzepte” der VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik (GMA). Ziel dieses Dokuments ist es, das Konzept und die Verwaltung von Datenmodel...

  12. Radioecological modelling of the biosphere as illustrated by the example of the model area Oberbauenstock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, J.; Fritschi, M.; Schwanner, I.; Resele, G.

    1986-06-01

    The biosphere model is the final link in the chain of radionuclide transport models used for radiation dose calculations for nuclear waste repositories. The dispersion of radionuclides from a low and intermediate level waste repository in the biosphere and their uptake by man through food pathways is investigated with a compartment model. The relevant biosphere parameters were based on the model site at Oberbauenstock and compiled as a model data set for further use in the biosphere modelling. Nuclide concentrations in the biosphere compartments and foodstuffs as well as annual individual radiation doses are calculated with the computer program BIOSPH. The present report contains a description of the model area and its subdivision into 4 compartments, a compilation of the relevant parameters and the simplifying assumptions that have been made, discussion of mathematical modelling of nuclide transport in the biosphere and of the calculation of the individual radiation doses, a technical description of the computer program BIOSPH and a detailed presentation of the results from the model calculations. (author)

  13. Example of emergency response model evaluation of studies using the Mathew/Adpic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, M.H.; Lange, R.

    1986-04-01

    This report summarizes model evaluation studies conducted for the MATHEW/ADPIC transport and diffusion models during the past ten years. These models support the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability, an emergency response service for atmospheric releases of nuclear material. Field studies involving tracer releases used in these studies cover a broad range of meteorology, terrain and tracer release heights, the three most important aspects of estimating air concentration values resulting from airborne releases of toxic material. Results of these studies show that these models can estimate air concentration values within a factor of 2 20% to 50% of the time and a factor of 5 40% to 80% of the time. As the meterology and terrain become more complex and the release height of the tracer is increased, the accuracy of the model calculations degrades. This band of uncertainty appears to correctly represent the capability of these models at this time. A method for estimating angular uncertainty in the model calculations is described and used to suggest alternative methods for evaluating emergency response models

  14. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

    2018-01-01

    Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

  15. Online Video-Based Training in the Use of Hydrologic Models: A Case Example Using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankenberger, J.

    2009-12-01

    Hydrologic models are increasingly important tools in public decision-making. For example, watershed models are used to develop Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans, quantify pollutant loads, and estimate the effects of watershed restoration efforts funded by the public. One widely-used tool is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which has been applied by state and federal agencies, consultants, and university researchers to assess sources of nonpoint source pollution and the effects of potential solutions, and used in testimony in at least one lawsuit. The SWAT model has the capability to evaluate the relative effects of different management scenarios on water quality, sediment, and agricultural chemical yield at the watershed scale. As with all models, the model user and the decisions that s/he makes in the modeling process are important determinants of model performance. The SWAT model has an open structure, leaving most decisions up to the model user, which was especially appropriate when the model was primarily used in research by highly-experienced modelers. However, as the model has become more widely applied in planning and assessment, by people who may have limited hydrology background and modeling knowledge, the possibility that users may be using the model inconsistently or even incorrectly becomes a concern. Consistent training can lead to a minimum standard of knowledge that model users are expected to have, and therefore to higher use of best practices in modeling efforts. In addition, widespread availability of training can lead to better decisions about when and where using the model is appropriate, and what level of data needs to be available for confidence in predictions. Currently, most training in model use takes place in occasional face-to-face workshops, courses offered at a few universities, and a short tutorial available in the manual. Many new users simply acquire the model and learn from the manual, other users, trial and error

  16. Estimating Parameters in Physical Models through Bayesian Inversion: A Complete Example

    KAUST Repository

    Allmaras, Moritz

    2013-02-07

    All mathematical models of real-world phenomena contain parameters that need to be estimated from measurements, either for realistic predictions or simply to understand the characteristics of the model. Bayesian statistics provides a framework for parameter estimation in which uncertainties about models and measurements are translated into uncertainties in estimates of parameters. This paper provides a simple, step-by-step example-starting from a physical experiment and going through all of the mathematics-to explain the use of Bayesian techniques for estimating the coefficients of gravity and air friction in the equations describing a falling body. In the experiment we dropped an object from a known height and recorded the free fall using a video camera. The video recording was analyzed frame by frame to obtain the distance the body had fallen as a function of time, including measures of uncertainty in our data that we describe as probability densities. We explain the decisions behind the various choices of probability distributions and relate them to observed phenomena. Our measured data are then combined with a mathematical model of a falling body to obtain probability densities on the space of parameters we seek to estimate. We interpret these results and discuss sources of errors in our estimation procedure. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  17. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

  18. Visual momentum: an example of cognitive models applied to interface design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.

    1982-01-01

    The growth of computer applications has radically changed the nature of the man-machine interface. Through increased automation, the nature of the human's task has shifted from an emphasis on perceptual-motor skills to an emphasis on cognitive activities (e.g., problem solving and decision making). The result is a need to improve the cognitive coupling of person and machine. The goal of this paper is to describe how knowledge from cognitive psychology can be used to provide guidance to display system designers and to solve human performance problems in person-machine systems. The mechanism is to explore one example of a principle of man-machine interaction - visual momentum - that was developed on the basis of a general model of human front-end cognitive processing

  19. Multistage modeling of protein dynamics with monomeric Myc oncoprotein as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiaojiao; Dai, Jin; He, Jianfeng; Niemi, Antti J.; Ilieva, Nevena

    2017-03-01

    We propose to combine a mean-field approach with all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) into a multistage algorithm that can model protein folding and dynamics over very long time periods yet with atomic-level precision. As an example, we investigate an isolated monomeric Myc oncoprotein that has been implicated in carcinomas including those in colon, breast, and lungs. Under physiological conditions a monomeric Myc is presumed to be an example of intrinsically disordered proteins that pose a serious challenge to existing modeling techniques. We argue that a room-temperature monomeric Myc is in a dynamical state, it oscillates between different conformations that we identify. For this we adopt the C α backbone of Myc in a crystallographic heteromer as an initial ansatz for the monomeric structure. We construct a multisoliton of the pertinent Landau free energy to describe the C α profile with ultrahigh precision. We use Glauber dynamics to resolve how the multisoliton responds to repeated increases and decreases in ambient temperature. We confirm that the initial structure is unstable in isolation. We reveal a highly degenerate ground-state landscape, an attractive set towards which Glauber dynamics converges in the limit of vanishing ambient temperature. We analyze the thermal stability of this Glauber attractor using room-temperature molecular dynamics. We identify and scrutinize a particularly stable subset in which the two helical segments of the original multisoliton align in parallel next to each other. During the MD time evolution of a representative structure from this subset, we observe intermittent quasiparticle oscillations along the C-terminal α helix, some of which resemble a translating Davydov's Amide-I soliton. We propose that the presence of oscillatory motion is in line with the expected intrinsically disordered character of Myc.

  20. Socio-Hydrology Modelling for an Uncertain Future, with Examples from the USA and Canada (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Socio-hydrology brings an interest in human values, markets, social organizations and public policy to the traditional emphasis of water science on climate, hydrology, toxicology,and ecology. It also conveys a decision focus in the form of decision support tools, engagement, and new knowledge about the science-policy interface. This paper demonstrates how policy decisions and human behavior can be better integrated into climate and hydrological models to improve their usefulness for support in decision making. Examples from the Southwest USA and Western Canada highlight uncertainties, vulnerabilities, and critical tradeoffs facing water decision makers in the face of rapidly changing environmental and societal conditions. Irreducible uncertainties in downscaled climate and hydrological models limit the usefulness of climate-driven, predict-and-plan methods of water resource planning and management. Thus, it is argued that such methods should be replaced by approaches that use exploratory modelling, scenario planning, and risk assessment in which the emphasis is on managing uncertainty rather than on reducing it.

  1. Coupling SPH and thermochemical models of planets: Methodology and example of a Mars-sized body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golabek, G. J.; Emsenhuber, A.; Jutzi, M.; Asphaug, E. I.; Gerya, T. V.

    2018-02-01

    Giant impacts have been suggested to explain various characteristics of terrestrial planets and their moons. However, so far in most models only the immediate effects of the collisions have been considered, while the long-term interior evolution of the impacted planets was not studied. Here we present a new approach, combining 3-D shock physics collision calculations with 3-D thermochemical interior evolution models. We apply the combined methods to a demonstration example of a giant impact on a Mars-sized body, using typical collisional parameters from previous studies. While the material parameters (equation of state, rheology model) used in the impact simulations can have some effect on the long-term evolution, we find that the impact angle is the most crucial parameter for the resulting spatial distribution of the newly formed crust. The results indicate that a dichotomous crustal pattern can form after a head-on collision, while this is not the case when considering a more likely grazing collision. Our results underline that end-to-end 3-D calculations of the entire process are required to study in the future the effects of large-scale impacts on the evolution of planetary interiors.

  2. Dynamics of development and dispersal in sessile microbial communities: examples from Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Pseudomonas putida model biofilms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, M.; Gjermansen, Morten; Kreft, J.-U.

    2006-01-01

    Surface-associated microbial communities in many cases display dynamic developmental patterns. Model biofilms formed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Pseudomonas putida in laboratory flow-chamber setups represent examples of such behaviour. Dependent on the experimental conditions the bacteria...

  3. Statistical modeling of volume of alcohol exposure for epidemiological studies of population health: the US example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gmel Gerrit

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor in the global burden of disease, with overall volume of exposure as the principal underlying dimension. Two main sources of data on volume of alcohol exposure are available: surveys and per capita consumption derived from routine statistics such as taxation. As both sources have significant problems, this paper presents an approach that triangulates information from both sources into disaggregated estimates in line with the overall level of per capita consumption. Methods A modeling approach was applied to the US using data from a large and representative survey, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Different distributions (log-normal, gamma, Weibull were used to model consumption among drinkers in subgroups defined by sex, age, and ethnicity. The gamma distribution was used to shift the fitted distributions in line with the overall volume as derived from per capita estimates. Implications for alcohol-attributable fractions were presented, using liver cirrhosis as an example. Results The triangulation of survey data with aggregated per capita consumption data proved feasible and allowed for modeling of alcohol exposure disaggregated by sex, age, and ethnicity. These models can be used in combination with risk relations for burden of disease calculations. Sensitivity analyses showed that the gamma distribution chosen yielded very similar results in terms of fit and alcohol-attributable mortality as the other tested distributions. Conclusions Modeling alcohol consumption via the gamma distribution was feasible. To further refine this approach, research should focus on the main assumptions underlying the approach to explore differences between volume estimates derived from surveys and per capita consumption figures.

  4. Application of Survival Analysis and Multistate Modeling to Understand Animal Behavior: Examples from Guide Dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asher, Lucy; Harvey, Naomi D.; Green, Martin; England, Gary C. W.

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiology is the study of patterns of health-related states or events in populations. Statistical models developed for epidemiology could be usefully applied to behavioral states or events. The aim of this study is to present the application of epidemiological statistics to understand animal behavior where discrete outcomes are of interest, using data from guide dogs to illustrate. Specifically, survival analysis and multistate modeling are applied to data on guide dogs comparing dogs that completed training and qualified as a guide dog, to those that were withdrawn from the training program. Survival analysis allows the time to (or between) a binary event(s) and the probability of the event occurring at or beyond a specified time point. Survival analysis, using a Cox proportional hazards model, was used to examine the time taken to withdraw a dog from training. Sex, breed, and other factors affected time to withdrawal. Bitches were withdrawn faster than dogs, Labradors were withdrawn faster, and Labrador × Golden Retrievers slower, than Golden Retriever × Labradors; and dogs not bred by Guide Dogs were withdrawn faster than those bred by Guide Dogs. Multistate modeling (MSM) can be used as an extension of survival analysis to incorporate more than two discrete events or states. Multistate models were used to investigate transitions between states of training to qualification as a guide dog or behavioral withdrawal, and from qualification as a guide dog to behavioral withdrawal. Sex, breed (with purebred Labradors and Golden retrievers differing from F1 crosses), and bred by Guide Dogs or not, effected movements between states. We postulate that survival analysis and MSM could be applied to a wide range of behavioral data and key examples are provided. PMID:28804710

  5. Application of Survival Analysis and Multistate Modeling to Understand Animal Behavior: Examples from Guide Dogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy Asher

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiology is the study of patterns of health-related states or events in populations. Statistical models developed for epidemiology could be usefully applied to behavioral states or events. The aim of this study is to present the application of epidemiological statistics to understand animal behavior where discrete outcomes are of interest, using data from guide dogs to illustrate. Specifically, survival analysis and multistate modeling are applied to data on guide dogs comparing dogs that completed training and qualified as a guide dog, to those that were withdrawn from the training program. Survival analysis allows the time to (or between a binary event(s and the probability of the event occurring at or beyond a specified time point. Survival analysis, using a Cox proportional hazards model, was used to examine the time taken to withdraw a dog from training. Sex, breed, and other factors affected time to withdrawal. Bitches were withdrawn faster than dogs, Labradors were withdrawn faster, and Labrador × Golden Retrievers slower, than Golden Retriever × Labradors; and dogs not bred by Guide Dogs were withdrawn faster than those bred by Guide Dogs. Multistate modeling (MSM can be used as an extension of survival analysis to incorporate more than two discrete events or states. Multistate models were used to investigate transitions between states of training to qualification as a guide dog or behavioral withdrawal, and from qualification as a guide dog to behavioral withdrawal. Sex, breed (with purebred Labradors and Golden retrievers differing from F1 crosses, and bred by Guide Dogs or not, effected movements between states. We postulate that survival analysis and MSM could be applied to a wide range of behavioral data and key examples are provided.

  6. Application of Survival Analysis and Multistate Modeling to Understand Animal Behavior: Examples from Guide Dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asher, Lucy; Harvey, Naomi D; Green, Martin; England, Gary C W

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiology is the study of patterns of health-related states or events in populations. Statistical models developed for epidemiology could be usefully applied to behavioral states or events. The aim of this study is to present the application of epidemiological statistics to understand animal behavior where discrete outcomes are of interest, using data from guide dogs to illustrate. Specifically, survival analysis and multistate modeling are applied to data on guide dogs comparing dogs that completed training and qualified as a guide dog, to those that were withdrawn from the training program. Survival analysis allows the time to (or between) a binary event(s) and the probability of the event occurring at or beyond a specified time point. Survival analysis, using a Cox proportional hazards model, was used to examine the time taken to withdraw a dog from training. Sex, breed, and other factors affected time to withdrawal. Bitches were withdrawn faster than dogs, Labradors were withdrawn faster, and Labrador × Golden Retrievers slower, than Golden Retriever × Labradors; and dogs not bred by Guide Dogs were withdrawn faster than those bred by Guide Dogs. Multistate modeling (MSM) can be used as an extension of survival analysis to incorporate more than two discrete events or states. Multistate models were used to investigate transitions between states of training to qualification as a guide dog or behavioral withdrawal, and from qualification as a guide dog to behavioral withdrawal. Sex, breed (with purebred Labradors and Golden retrievers differing from F1 crosses), and bred by Guide Dogs or not, effected movements between states. We postulate that survival analysis and MSM could be applied to a wide range of behavioral data and key examples are provided.

  7. Evaluating the uncertainty in geochemical modelling for CO2 storage. The example of Ketzin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lucia, Marco; Audigane, Pascal; Jacquemet, Nicolas; Kühn, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Several sources of uncertainty are associated with geochemical modelling of reservoirs considered for CO2 storage : on one hand only few available data are generally available for a particular reservoir, which are affected by measure errors, and whose representativity is in most cases questionable; on the other hand, the phenomenological description itself of the chemical fluid-rock interactions relies heavily on experimental determination of physical observables, which are summarized in a thermodynamical and chemical databases used by the numerical simulators. The latter is for example the case of the CO2 disposal in saline aquifer, where the high ionic strength of the formation fluid requires a Pitzer ion interaction model to evaluate with sufficient accuracy the activities of the considered species. Typically, parameters for Pitzer model are discordant following different authors and data related to a conspicous number of relevant ions are often unavailable or unreliable -i.e. derived for different P/T conditions or ionic strength of the solution -, which makes very difficult to estimate the accuracy of the predictions. This contribution presents our effort in evaluating the reliability of chemical simulations in the case of Ketzin on-shore CO2 storage project. Based on available fluid and mineralogic analysis, an initial equilibrium model was determined, i.e. matching both the observed fluid composition and the saturation with the mineral phases present in the sandstone layer of the Stuttgart formation which constitutes the reservoir. A sensitivity analisys based on small perturbations of such initial model was then performed, in order to assess the influence of measurement errors and possibly define a compositional range which can be assumed in spatially variable simulations. This step is then followed by the sensitivity to the Pitzer parameters that are collected in the chemical database used throughout this study; both the parameters themselves and their

  8. Comparing the Rξ gauge and the unitary gauge for the standard model: An example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai Tsun Wu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For gauge theory, the matrix element for any physical process is independent of the gauge used. However, since this is a formal statement, it does not guarantee this gauge independence in every case. An example is given here where, for a physical process in the standard model, the matrix elements calculated with two different gauge – the Rξ gauge and the unitary gauge – are explicitly verified to be different. This is accomplished by subtracting one matrix element from the other. This non-zero difference turns out to have a subtle origin. Two simple operators are found not to commute with each other: in one gauge these two operations are carried out in one order, while in the other gauge these same two operations are carried out in the opposite order. Because of this result, a series of question are raised such that the answers to these question may lead to a deeper understanding of the Yang–Mills non-Abelian gauge theory in general and the standard model in particular.

  9. Overcoming pain thresholds with multilevel models-an example using quantitative sensory testing (QST) data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschfeld, Gerrit; Blankenburg, Markus R; Süß, Moritz; Zernikow, Boris

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of somatosensory function is a cornerstone of research and clinical practice in neurology. Recent initiatives have developed novel protocols for quantitative sensory testing (QST). Application of these methods led to intriguing findings, such as the presence lower pain-thresholds in healthy children compared to healthy adolescents. In this article, we (re-) introduce the basic concepts of signal detection theory (SDT) as a method to investigate such differences in somatosensory function in detail. SDT describes participants' responses according to two parameters, sensitivity and response-bias. Sensitivity refers to individuals' ability to discriminate between painful and non-painful stimulations. Response-bias refers to individuals' criterion for giving a "painful" response. We describe how multilevel models can be used to estimate these parameters and to overcome central critiques of these methods. To provide an example we apply these methods to data from the mechanical pain sensitivity test of the QST protocol. The results show that adolescents are more sensitive to mechanical pain and contradict the idea that younger children simply use more lenient criteria to report pain. Overall, we hope that the wider use of multilevel modeling to describe somatosensory functioning may advance neurology research and practice.

  10. Modular Approaches to Earth Science Scientific Computing: 3D Electromagnetic Induction Modeling as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, K.; Egbert, G.; Siripunvaraporn, W.

    2003-12-01

    We are developing a modular system for three-dimensional inversion of electromagnetic (EM) induction data, using an object oriented programming approach. This approach allows us to modify the individual components of the inversion scheme proposed, and also reuse the components for variety of problems in earth science computing howsoever diverse they might be. In particular, the modularity allows us to (a) change modeling codes independently of inversion algorithm details; (b) experiment with new inversion algorithms; and (c) modify the way prior information is imposed in the inversion to test competing hypothesis and techniques required to solve an earth science problem. Our initial code development is for EM induction equations on a staggered grid, using iterative solution techniques in 3D. An example illustrated here is an experiment with the sensitivity of 3D magnetotelluric inversion to uncertainties in the boundary conditions required for regional induction problems. These boundary conditions should reflect the large-scale geoelectric structure of the study area, which is usually poorly constrained. In general for inversion of MT data, one fixes boundary conditions at the edge of the model domain, and adjusts the earth?s conductivity structure within the modeling domain. Allowing for errors in specification of the open boundary values is simple in principle, but no existing inversion codes that we are aware of have this feature. Adding a feature such as this is straightforward within the context of the modular approach. More generally, a modular approach provides an efficient methodology for setting up earth science computing problems to test various ideas. As a concrete illustration relevant to EM induction problems, we investigate the sensitivity of MT data near San Andreas Fault at Parkfield (California) to uncertainties in the regional geoelectric structure.

  11. Examples of Video to Communicate Scientific Findings to Non-Scientists-Bayesian Ecological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorman, M.; Harned, D. A.; Cuffney, T.; Qian, S.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) provides information about (1) water-quality conditions and how those conditions vary locally, regionally, and nationally, (2) water-quality trends, and (3) factors that affect those conditions. As part of the NAWQA Program, the Effects of Urbanization on Stream Ecosystems (EUSE) study examined the vulnerability and resilience of streams to urbanization. Completion of the EUSE study has resulted in over 20 scientific publications. Video podcasts are being used in addition to these publications to communicate the relevance of these scientific findings to more general audiences such as resource managers, educational groups, public officials, and the general public. An example of one of the podcasts is a film about the results of modeling the effects urbanization on stream ecology. The film describes some of the results of the EUSE ecological modeling effort and the advantages of the Bayesian and multi-level statistical modeling approaches, while relating the science to fly fishing. The complex scientific discussion combined with the lighter, more popular activity of fly fishing leads to an entertaining forum while educating viewers about a complex topic. This approach is intended to represent the scientists as interesting people with diverse interests. Video can be an effective scientific communication tool for presenting scientific findings to a broad audience. The film is available for access from the EUSE website (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/urban/html/podcasts.html). Additional films are planned to be released in 2012 on other USGS project results and programs.

  12. Examples of New Models Applied in Selected Simulation Systems with Respect to Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ignaszak

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The tolerance of damage rule progressively meets the approval in the design casting parts procedures. Therefore, there were appeared thenew challenges and expectations for permanent development of process virtualization in the mechanical engineering industry.Virtualization is increasingly developed on the stage of product design and materials technologies optimization. Increasing expectations of design and process engineers regarding the practical effectiveness of applied simulation systems with new proposed up-grades modules is observed. The purpose is to obtain simulation tools allowing the most possible realistic prognosis of the casting structure, including indication, with the highest possible probability, places in the casting that are endangered with the possibility of shrinkage– and gas porosity formation. This 3D map of discontinuities and structure transformed in local mechanical characteristics are used to calculate the local stresses and safety factors. The needs of tolerance of damage and new approach to evaluate the quality of such prognosis must be defined. These problems of validation of new models/modules used to predict the shrinkage– and gas porosity including the chosen structure parameters in the example of AlSi7 alloy are discussed in the paper.

  13. Petrologic characteristic and Geological Model of Igneous Reservoir: An example in Zhanhua Seg, Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Q.; Shao, S.; Kang, R.; Liu, K.

    2003-12-01

    The diabase is a typical igneous rock, which intrude the oil-bearing mudstone and form potential reservoir. As an example of Luo151 igneous rock in Zhanhua Seg, Eastern China, we studied the diabase reservoir in detail, including petrologic analysis, reservoir anisotropy and geological modeling. Four lithofacies zones are divided according to analyzing petrology, texture and structureϻwhich comprise carbonaceous slate, hornfels containing cordierite and grammite, border subfacies and central subfacies, and the petrologic types include carbonaceous slate, hornfels, and diabases. The diabase construction is divided into grammite hornfels micropore and diabase porous-fracture type reservoirs. The mudstone layers in Third Member of Shahejie Formation (Es3) provide favorable hydrocarbon source rock and cap formation, diabase and hornfels belts serve as reservoirs, faults and microcracks in the wall rocks as the pathways for oil and gas migration. The invasive time was about in the later deposition period of Dongying Formation and the middle of that of Guantao Formation, the oil generated from oil source rock of Es3 in the period of the Minghuazhen formation and is earlier more than the period of diabase oil trap and porous space forming.

  14. Incorporating microbiota data into epidemiologic models: examples from vaginal microbiota research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Wijgert, Janneke H; Jespers, Vicky

    2016-05-01

    Next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction technologies are now widely available, and research incorporating these methods is growing exponentially. In the vaginal microbiota (VMB) field, most research to date has been descriptive. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of different ways in which next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction data can be used to answer clinical epidemiologic research questions using examples from VMB research. We reviewed relevant methodological literature and VMB articles (published between 2008 and 2015) that incorporated these methodologies. VMB data have been analyzed using ecologic methods, methods that compare the presence or relative abundance of individual taxa or community compositions between different groups of women or sampling time points, and methods that first reduce the complexity of the data into a few variables followed by the incorporation of these variables into traditional biostatistical models. To make future VMB research more clinically relevant (such as studying associations between VMB compositions and clinical outcomes and the effects of interventions on the VMB), it is important that these methods are integrated with rigorous epidemiologic methods (such as appropriate study designs, sampling strategies, and adjustment for confounding). Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Examples of New Models Applied in Selected Simulation Systems with Respect to Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignaszak Z.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The tolerance of damage rule progressively meets the approval in the design casting parts procedures. Therefore, there were appeared the new challenges and expectations for permanent development of process virtualization in the mechanical engineering industry. Virtualization is increasingly developed on the stage of product design and materials technologies optimization. Increasing expectations of design and process engineers regarding the practical effectiveness of applied simulation systems with new proposed up-grades modules is observed. The purpose is to obtain simulation tools allowing the most possible realistic prognosis of the casting structure, including indication, with the highest possible probability, places in the casting that are endangered with the possibility of shrinkage- and gas porosity formation. This 3D map of discontinuities and structure transformed in local mechanical characteristics are used to calculate the local stresses and safety factors. The needs of tolerance of damage and new approach to evaluate the quality of such prognosis must be defined. These problems of validation of new models/modules used to predict the shrinkage- and gas porosity including the chosen structure parameters in the example of AlSi7 alloy are discussed in the paper.

  16. Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Railsback, S F; Harvey, B C

    2011-12-01

    Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers' understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics such as depth and velocity, temperature, hiding and feeding cover, drift-food supply and predation risk), fish physiology (especially, how food intake and growth vary with hydrodynamics, cover, fish size and temperature) and behaviour. When drift-food concentration was increased over a wide range in 7 year simulations, the simulated population was always food limited. In fact, as food supply increased, the population increased at an increasing rate and consumed a higher percentage of the food supply, apparently because higher food concentrations make more stream area energetically profitable for drift feeders. The behaviour most responsible for this response was activity selection: when food was abundant, fish chose to feed less frequently and more nocturnally, thereby reducing predation mortality so more fish survived longer. These results indicate that the traditional concept of food limitation, that food availability stops limiting population size when it exceeds some threshold level, may not be useful and can be misleading. Results also strongly contradict the concept that a salmonid population is not food limited if the total food supply is greater than the population's consumption. Explicit consideration of adaptive behaviour produced a novel but believable understanding of food effects on salmonid populations. Published 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  17. Comparison of different models for the example of TE Plomin site analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Sinka, D.; Lokner, V.; Schaller, A.

    1996-01-01

    In the past few years radioactively contamined sites and their clean-up have made it to the list of topical environmental issues with both professionals as well as general public. TE Plomin site, situated in the western littoral area of the Istrian peninsula, some ten kilometers north-west to the town of Labin, within the complex of the power plant carrying the same name, is a good example of such a site. It contains 700000m 3 of radioactively contamined slag and ash, covering the area of 120000m 2 . Application of quantitative methods for the assessment of impacts on human health and environment is a crucial step in the process of making decision on possible clean-up procedures of contamined sites. That is why a number of models have been designed, each of them tackling the problem in a different way, within a more or less limited scope, with a higher or lower level of precision. In the case of TE Plomin site doses were calculated by RESRAD and GENII programme packages and PATHRAE method. Doses received are relevant to an individual who spends some time at the site every day, and they are inclusive of contributions from the direct radiation of the deposited material and inhalation of contamined particles. The highest cumulative doses were obtained by RESRAD programme, and the lowest by GENII programme. It has been established that, regardless of the method or programme applied, the doses received from the direct radiation of deposited material are several times higher than the doses received by inhaling contamined particles. It has also been established that aberrations encountered in cumulative doses are due to differences in models and dose factors for the calculation of doses from the direct radiation. (author)

  18. Knowledge discovery in large model datasets in the marine environment: the THREDDS Data Server example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bergamasco

    2012-06-01

    specifications for many of the different kinds of data used by the scientific community, such as grids, profiles, time series, swath data. These datatypes are aligned the NetCDF Climate and Forecast (CF Metadata Conventions and with Climate Science Modelling Language (CSML; CF-compliant NetCDF files and GRIB files can be read directly with no modification, while non compliant files can be modified to meet appropriate metadata requirements. Once standardized in the CDM, the TDS makes datasets available through a series of web services such as OPeNDAP or Open Geospatial Consortium Web Coverage Service (WCS, allowing the data users to easily obtain small subsets from large datasets, and to quickly visualize their content by using tools such as GODIVA2 or Integrated Data Viewer (IDV. In addition, an ISO metadata service is available through the TDS that can be harvested by catalogue broker services (e.g. GI-cat to enable distributed search across federated data servers. Example of TDS datasets can be accessed at the CNR-ISMAR Venice site http://tds.ve.ismar.cnr.it:8080/thredds/catalog.html.

  19. ACTRIS aerosol vertical profile data and observations: potentiality and first examples of integrated studies with models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mona, Lucia; Benedetti, Angela; D'Amico, Giuseppe; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Schulz, Michael; Wandinger, Ulla; Laj, Paolo; Pappalardo, Gelsomina

    2016-04-01

    . The potentiality of the new EARLINET data products and first examples of integrated studies with models will be presented at the conference. Acknowledgments: ACTRIS2 Research Infrastructure Project is funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the grant agreement n. 654169 and previously under FP7 grant agreement n. 262254.

  20. Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data with Examples from Criminology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Jeffrey D.; Loeber, Rolf; Farrington, David P.

    2009-01-01

    Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides…

  1. Attention to the Model's Face When Learning from Video Modeling Examples in Adolescents with and without Autism Spectrum Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wermeskerken, Margot; Grimmius, Bianca; van Gog, Tamara

    2018-01-01

    We investigated the effects of seeing the instructor's (i.e., the model's) face in video modeling examples on students' attention and their learning outcomes. Research with university students suggested that the model's face attracts students' attention away from what the model is doing, but this did not hamper learning. We aimed to investigate…

  2. Volcanic Plume Elevation Model Derived From Landsat 8: examples on Holuhraun (Iceland) and Mount Etna (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Michele, Marcello; Raucoules, Daniel; Arason, Þórður; Spinetti, Claudia; Corradini, Stefano; Merucci, Luca

    2016-04-01

    The retrieval of both height and velocity of a volcanic plume is an important issue in volcanology. As an example, it is known that large volcanic eruptions can temporarily alter the climate, causing global cooling and shifting precipitation patterns; the ash/gas dispersion in the atmosphere, their impact and lifetime around the globe, greatly depends on the injection altitude. Plume height information is critical for ash dispersion modelling and air traffic security. Furthermore, plume height during explosive volcanism is the primary parameter for estimating mass eruption rate. Knowing the plume altitude is also important to get the correct amount of SO2 concentration from dedicated spaceborne spectrometers. Moreover, the distribution of ash deposits on ground greatly depends on the ash cloud altitude, which has an impact on risk assessment and crisis management. Furthermore, a spatially detailed plume height measure could be used as a hint for gas emission rate estimation and for ash plume volume researches, which both have an impact on climate research, air quality assessment for aviation and finally for the understanding of the volcanic system itself as ash/gas emission rates are related to the state of pressurization of the magmatic chamber. Today, the community mainly relies on ground based measurements but often they can be difficult to collect as by definition volcanic areas are dangerous areas (presence of toxic gases) and can be remotely situated and difficult to access. Satellite remote sensing offers a comprehensive and safe way to estimate plume height. Conventional photogrammetric restitution based on satellite imagery fails in precisely retrieving a plume elevation model as the plume own velocity induces an apparent parallax that adds up to the standard parallax given by the stereoscopic view. Therefore, measurements based on standard satellite photogrammeric restitution do not apply as there is an ambiguity in the measurement of the plume position

  3. Example book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnat, Ph.; Treimany, C.; Gouedard, C.; Morice, O.

    1998-06-01

    This document presents some examples which were used for debugging the code. It seemed useful to write these examples onto a book to be sure the code would not regret; to give warranties for the code's functionality; to propose some examples to illustrate the possibilities and the limits of Miro. (author)

  4. Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data With Examples From Criminology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Jeffrey D; Loeber, Rolf; Farrington, David P

    2009-01-01

    Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides individual-level information including information about heterogeneity of growth. It is shown how a type of numerical averaging can be used with the random intercepts model to obtain group-level information, thus approximating individual and marginal aspects of the LMM. The types of inferences associated with each model are illustrated with longitudinal criminal offending data based on N = 506 males followed over a 22-year period. Violent offending indexed by official records and self-report were analyzed, with the marginal model estimated using generalized estimating equations and the random intercepts model estimated using maximum likelihood. The results show that the numerical averaging based on the random intercepts can produce prediction curves almost identical to those obtained directly from the marginal model parameter estimates. The results provide a basis for contrasting the models and the estimation procedures and key features are discussed to aid in selecting a method for empirical analysis.

  5. Atmospheric inverse modeling with known physical bounds: an example from trace gas emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Miller

    2014-02-01

    the relative merits of each. This paper investigates the applicability of several approaches to bounded inverse problems. A common method of data transformations is found to unrealistically skew estimates for the examined example application. The method of Lagrange multipliers and two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods yield more realistic and accurate results. In general, the examined MCMC approaches produce the most realistic result but can require substantial computational time. Lagrange multipliers offer an appealing option for large, computationally intensive problems when exact uncertainty bounds are less central to the analysis. A synthetic data inversion of US anthropogenic methane emissions illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

  6. Political careers in Belgium: an example of the integrated career model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ine Vanlangenakker

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Several countries have undergone a regionalization in recent years followed by a professionalization of regional politics. This led to research on career patterns in multi-level states, with attention for the relationship between the regional and national level. Stolz (2005 found evidence for four types of career patterns. In this article it is argued that the Belgian regions of Flanders and Wallonia are both examples of the ‘integrated careers’ ideal type since the introduction of directly elected regional parliaments in 1995. Level-hopping data (1995-2010 show that there is one integrated career arena and that there is no dominant direction towards the national level.

  7. Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Edward H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Green, Nicholas S.; Albers, Janice L.

    2016-02-10

    The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level.The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource

  8. Examples of EOS Variables as compared to the UMM-Var Data Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, Simon; Lynnes, Chris

    2016-01-01

    In effort to provide EOSDIS clients a way to discover and use variable data from different providers, a Unified Metadata Model for Variables is being created. This presentation gives an overview of the model and use cases we are handling.

  9. Economic Transformation in Slovenia: From a Model Example to the Default Edge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žídek Libor

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The Slovenian economy appeared on the brink of bankruptcy at the end of 2013. The situation was caused by high level of classified debts in state-owned banks. This can be seen as surprising because Slovenia used to be (for a long time considered as a (textbook example of the gradualist transformation approach. The goal of this article is first to describe the transformation process in the country and consequently to determine causes of the economic problems that resulted in the 2013 crisis. The article concludes that the economic problems were rooted already in the specific functioning of the centrally planned system in Yugoslavia. These specifics had a direct influence on the transformation process in the country and stood behind the application of gradualism. Among the most telling features of gradualism were slow privatization, cold attitude towards foreign investment and the foremost lasting casual economic environment caused by behaviour of the state-owned banks. My conclusion is that the country’s economic problems can be ascribed to gradualism and that they are a clear example of the path dependence development.

  10. Comparative Analysis of Smart Meters Deployment Business Models on the Example of the Russian Federation Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daminov, Ildar; Tarasova, Ekaterina; Andreeva, Tatyana; Avazov, Artur

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents the comparison of smart meter deployment business models to determine the most suitable option providing smart meters deployment. Authors consider 3 main business model of companies: distribution grid company, energy supplier (energosbyt) and metering company. The goal of the article is to compare the business models of power companies from massive smart metering roll out in power system of Russian Federation.

  11. Writings as modelling examples: Scaffolds for academic writing in a post-graduate curriculum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Firssova, Olga

    2014-01-01

    The presented study investigated the effectiveness of learning from models in the context of post-graduate academic writing. Two questions were pursued: whether studying model writings supports mature students in writing in a new genre and whether integrating additional scaffolds in such models has

  12. Reappraising the Relationships between Physics Students' Mental Models and Predictions: An Example of Heat Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiou, Guo-Li

    2013-01-01

    Although prediction is claimed to be a prime function of mental models, to what extent students can run their mental models to make predictions of physical phenomena remains uncertain. The purpose of this study, therefore, was first to investigate 30 physics students' mental models of heat convection, and then to examine the relationship between…

  13. Reappraising the relationships between physics students’ mental models and predictions: An example of heat convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Li Chiou

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Although prediction is claimed to be a prime function of mental models, to what extent students can run their mental models to make predictions of physical phenomena remains uncertain. The purpose of this study, therefore, was first to investigate 30 physics students’ mental models of heat convection, and then to examine the relationship between their mental models and predictions of convection-related phenomena. A series of semistructured interviews was conducted to probe the participants’ mental models and predictions of heat convection, and the constant comparative method was adopted for data analysis. The results reveal that the participants held a variety of mental models of heat convection, and nearly half held flawed mental models rather than a scientifically compatible one. In addition, while many participants attempted to run their mental models to make a prediction at the beginning stage of solving an interview problem, the relationship between the models and predictions became increasingly complex as the problem solving process continued. The relationships between mental models and predictions, however, could be better understood by considering the completeness of a mental model, the scale of analyzing mental models, and the retrieval of different formats of mental representations.

  14. Teachers' Temporary Support and Worked-Out Examples as Elements of Scaffolding in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tropper, Natalie; Leiss, Dominik; Hänze, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Empirical findings show that students have manifold difficulties when dealing with mathematical modeling problems. Accordingly, approaches for supporting students in modeling-based learning environments have to be investigated. In the research presented here, we adopted a scaffolding perspective on teaching modeling with the aim of both providing…

  15. Testing gradual and speciational models of evolution in extant taxa: the example of ratites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laurin, M.; Gussekloo, S.W.S.; Marjanovic, D.; Legendre, L.; Cubo, J.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since Eldredge and Gould proposed their model of punctuated equilibria, evolutionary biologists have debated how often this model is the best description of nature and how important it is compared to the more gradual models of evolution expected from natural selection and the neo-Darwinian

  16. The application of equilibrium models to incidence situations using the example of the exposure pathway human milk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steiner, Martin; Karcher, Klaus; Nosske, Dietmar [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany)

    2012-06-15

    The radiation exposure after a short-term release of radioactive substances is often calculated assuming equilibrium conditions. An example is that of the German Incident Calculation Bases for nuclear power plants with pressurized water reactors. Here, the contamination of human milk is calculated using transfer factors. Applying this equilibrium model to incident situations raises the question whether baby's radiation exposure is adequately assessed. This contribution shows that compliance with the relevant dose limits of paragraph 49 of the German Radiation Protection Ordinance is ensured for design basis accidents on the assumption that the hypothetical breastfeeding period starts at the beginning of the activity release. Comparative analyses were performed against the biokinetic models applied by ICRP for radiation protection purposes, taking the reference nuclides {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 131}I, {sup 241}Am and long-lived plutonium isotopes as examples. (orig.)

  17. Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochau, U; Jahn, B; Qerimi, V; Burger, E A; Kurzthaler, C; Kluibenschaedl, M; Willenbacher, E; Gastl, G; Willenbacher, W; Siebert, U

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM). We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures. Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Generic Data Model for Headtail: Design and Implementation with Examples

    CERN Document Server

    Li, K

    2012-01-01

    HEADTAIL has been developed in 2002 for the efficient simulation of instabilities and collective effects in large circular accelerators. Since then, the capabilities of the code have been continuously extended and the output data has become increasingly complex and large-scale ranging from the statistical description of single bunches to the statistical description of all slices within bunches up to the dynamics of the full 6D phase space over several thousands of turns. Processing this data in an effective manner and endowing it with a structure that provides a physical concept calls for new and optimised data formats. To meet state-of-the-art standards, the hierarchical data format (HDF5) has been selected as native output data format together with H5Part and XDMF as native data structures. We describe the implementation of the H5Part and the XDMF data structures into HEADTAIL and shows some illustrative examples for data processing.

  19. Genomic selection models for directional dominance: an example for litter size in pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varona, Luis; Legarra, Andrés; Herring, William; Vitezica, Zulma G

    2018-01-26

    The quantitative genetics theory argues that inbreeding depression and heterosis are founded on the existence of directional dominance. However, most procedures for genomic selection that have included dominance effects assumed prior symmetrical distributions. To address this, two alternatives can be considered: (1) assume the mean of dominance effects different from zero, and (2) use skewed distributions for the regularization of dominance effects. The aim of this study was to compare these approaches using two pig datasets and to confirm the presence of directional dominance. Four alternative models were implemented in two datasets of pig litter size that consisted of 13,449 and 11,581 records from 3631 and 2612 sows genotyped with the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip. The models evaluated included (1) a model that does not consider directional dominance (Model SN), (2) a model with a covariate b for the average individual homozygosity (Model SC), (3) a model with a parameter λ that reflects asymmetry in the context of skewed Gaussian distributions (Model AN), and (4) a model that includes both b and λ (Model Full). The results of the analysis showed that posterior probabilities of a negative b or a positive λ under Models SC and AN were higher than 0.99, which indicate positive directional dominance. This was confirmed with the predictions of inbreeding depression under Models Full, SC and AN, that were higher than in the SN Model. In spite of differences in posterior estimates of variance components between models, comparison of models based on LogCPO and DIC indicated that Model SC provided the best fit for the two datasets analyzed. Our results confirmed the presence of positive directional dominance for pig litter size and suggested that it should be taken into account when dominance effects are included in genomic evaluation procedures. The consequences of ignoring directional dominance may affect predictions of breeding values and can lead to biased

  20. Selected examples of practical approaches for the assessment of model reliability - parameter uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, E.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1987-02-01

    The uncertainty analysis of model predictions has to discriminate between two fundamentally different types of uncertainty. The presence of stochastic variability (Type 1 uncertainty) necessitates the use of a probabilistic model instead of the much simpler deterministic one. Lack of knowledge (Type 2 uncertainty), however, applies to deterministic as well as to probabilistic model predictions and often dominates over uncertainties of Type 1. The term ''probability'' is interpreted differently in the probabilistic analysis of either type of uncertainty. After these discriminations have been explained the discussion centers on the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the model, the derivation of quantitative uncertainty statements for model predictions and the presentation and interpretation of the results of a Type 2 uncertainty analysis. Various alternative approaches are compared for a very simple deterministic model

  1. What role can simulation model predictions play in environmental decisions: carbon dioxide as an example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emanuel, W.R.

    1979-01-01

    Frequently, when an environmental issue requiring quantitative analysis surfaces, the development of a model synthesizing all aspects of the problem and applicable at each stage of the decision process is proposed. A more desirable alternative is to generate models specifically designed to meet the requirements of each level in decision making and which can be adapted in response to the changing status of the environmental issue. Various models of the global carbon cycle constructed to predict levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere as a result of man's activities are described to illustrate this point. In summary, the progression of models developed to analyze the global carbon cycle in resolving the CO 2 /climate issue indicates the changing character of models depending on the immediate role they play in environmental decision making. The dominant and successful role served by models in the carbon cycle problem points to the desirability of this flexible approach

  2. Structural-equation models of migration: an example from the Upper Midwest USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadwallader, M

    1985-01-01

    "To date, most migration models have been specified in terms of a single equation, whereby a set of regional characteristics are used to predict migration rates for various kinds of spatial units. These models are inadequate in at least two respects. First, they omit any causal links between the explanatory variables, thus ignoring indirect effects between these variables and migration. Second, they ignore the possibility of reciprocal causation, or feedback effects, between migration and the explanatory variables...." The author uses data for State Economic Areas to construct a path model and simultaneous-equation model to identify both indirect and feedback effects on migration in the Upper Midwestern United States. "On the basis of the path model, it is suggested that the direct effects of many variables on migration are at least partially offset by the indirect effects, whereas the simultaneous-equation model emphasizes the reciprocal relationship between income and migration." excerpt

  3. An Antenna-Theory Method for Modeling High-Frequency RF Coils: A Segmented Birdcage Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Chen

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available We suggest that center-fed dipole antenna analytics can be employed in the optimized design of high-frequency MRI RF coil applications. The method is illustrated in the design of a single-segmented birdcage model and a short multisegmented birdcage model. As a byproduct, it is shown that for a long single-segmented birdcage model, the RF field within it is essentially a TEM mode and has excellent planar uniformity. For a short shielded multisegmented birdcage model, the RF field is optimized with a target-field approach with an average SAR functional. The planar homogeneity of the optimized RF field is significantly improved compared with that of a single-segmented birdcage model with the same geometry. The accuracy of the antenna formulae is also verified with numerical simulations performed via commercial software. The model discussed herein provides evidence for the effectiveness of antenna methods in future RF coil analysis.

  4. Comparative Analysis of Smart Meters Deployment Business Models on the Example of the Russian Federation Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daminov Ildar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the comparison of smart meter deployment business models to determine the most suitable option providing smart meters deployment. Authors consider 3 main business model of companies: distribution grid company, energy supplier (energosbyt and metering company. The goal of the article is to compare the business models of power companies from massive smart metering roll out in power system of Russian Federation.

  5. Igpet software for modeling igneous processes: examples of application using the open educational version

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Michael J.; Gazel, Esteban

    2017-04-01

    We provide here an open version of Igpet software, called t-Igpet to emphasize its application for teaching and research in forward modeling of igneous geochemistry. There are three programs, a norm utility, a petrologic mixing program using least squares and Igpet, a graphics program that includes many forms of numerical modeling. Igpet is a multifaceted tool that provides the following basic capabilities: igneous rock identification using the IUGS (International Union of Geological Sciences) classification and several supplementary diagrams; tectonic discrimination diagrams; pseudo-quaternary projections; least squares fitting of lines, polynomials and hyperbolae; magma mixing using two endmembers, histograms, x-y plots, ternary plots and spider-diagrams. The advanced capabilities of Igpet are multi-element mixing and magma evolution modeling. Mixing models are particularly useful for understanding the isotopic variations in rock suites that evolved by mixing different sources. The important melting models include, batch melting, fractional melting and aggregated fractional melting. Crystallization models include equilibrium and fractional crystallization and AFC (assimilation and fractional crystallization). Theses, reports and proposals concerning igneous petrology are improved by numerical modeling. For reviewed publications some elements of modeling are practically a requirement. Our intention in providing this software is to facilitate improved communication and lower entry barriers to research, especially for students.

  6. Fitting macroevolutionary models to phylogenies: an example using vertebrate body sizes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooers, Arne Ø.; Schluter, Dolph

    1998-01-01

    How do traits change through time and with speciation? We present a simple and generally applicable method for comparing various models of the macroevolution of traits within a maximum likelihood framework. We illustrate four such models: 1) variance among species accumulates in direct proportion to

  7. Conceptual Change in Physical Geography and Environmental Sciences through Mental Model Building: The Example of Groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinfried, Sibylle

    2006-01-01

    This research tested the hypothesis that students' erroneous mental models about groundwater will change towards more valid concepts if they are taught on the basis of a mental model-building strategy that focuses on the clarification of students' misconceptions. To examine the hypothesis a quasi-experimental research design was chosen. The…

  8. Examples of mixed-effects modeling with crossed random effects and with binomial data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quené, H.; van den Bergh, H.

    2008-01-01

    Psycholinguistic data are often analyzed with repeated-measures analyses of variance (ANOVA), but this paper argues that mixed-effects (multilevel) models provide a better alternative method. First, models are discussed in which the two random factors of participants and items are crossed, and not

  9. Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2010-01-01

    Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

  10. Uncertainty modelling and analysis of environmental systems: a river sediment yield example

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Koskela, J.; Guillaume, J.H.; Norton, J.P.; Croke, B.; Jakeman, A.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract: Throughout the last decades uncertainty analysis has become an essential part of environmental model building (e.g. Beck 1987; Refsgaard et al., 2007). The objective of the paper is to introduce stochastic and setmembership uncertainty modelling concepts, which basically differ in the

  11. Models for high cell density bioreactors must consider biomass volume fraction: Cell recycle example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monbouquette, H G

    1987-06-01

    Intrinsic models, which take into account biomass volume fraction, must be formulated for adequate simulation of high-biomass-density fermentations with cell recycle. Through comparison of corresponding intrinsic and non-intrinsic models in dimensionless form, constraints for non-intrinsic model usage in terms of biokinetic and fermenter operating parameters can be identified a priori. Analysis of a simple product-inhibition model indicates that the non-intrinsic approach is suitable only when the attainable biomass volume fraction in the fermentation broth is less than about 0.10. Inappropriate application of a non-intrinsic model can lead to gross errors in calculated substrate and product concentrations, substrate conversion, and volumetric productivity.

  12. Models for high cell density bioreactors must consider biomass volume fraction: cell recycle example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monbouquette, H.G.

    1987-06-01

    Intrinsic models, which take into account biomass volume fraction, must be formulated for adequate simulation of high-biomass-density fermentations with cell recycle. Through comparison of corresponding intrinsic and non-intrinsic models in dimensionless form, constraints for non-intrinsic model usage in terms of biokinetic and fermenter operating parameters can be identified a priori. Analysis of a simple product-inhibition model indicates that the non-intrinsic approach is suitable only when the attainable biomass volume fraction in the fermentation broth is less than about 0.10. Inappropriate application of a non-intrinsic model can lead to gross errors in calculated substrate and product concentrations, substrate conversion, and volumetric productivity. (Refs. 14).

  13. Modeling solute transport through saturated zone ground water at 10 km scale: Example from the Yucca Mountain license application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelkar, Sharad; Ding, Mei; Chu, Shaoping; Robinson, Bruce A.; Arnold, Bill; Meijer, Arend; Eddebbarh, Al-Aziz

    2010-09-01

    This paper presents a study of solute transport through ground water in the saturated zone and the resulting breakthrough curves (BTCs), using a field-scale numerical model that incorporates the processes of advection, dispersion, matrix diffusion in fractured volcanic formations, sorption, and colloid-facilitated transport. Such BTCs at compliance boundaries are often used as performance measures for a site. The example considered here is that of the saturated zone study prepared for the Yucca Mountain license application. The saturated zone at this site occurs partly in volcanic, fractured rock formations and partly in alluvial formations. This paper presents a description of the site and the ground water flow model, the development of the conceptual model of transport, model uncertainties, model validation, and the influence of uncertainty in input parameters on the downstream BTCs at the Yucca Mountain site.

  14. A Risk Assessment Example for Soil Invertebrates Using Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sonia

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier...... population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different...... application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed “overall”], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover...

  15. Cellular automaton modeling of biological pattern formation characterization, examples, and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Deutsch, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    This text explores the use of cellular automata in modeling pattern formation in biological systems. It describes several mathematical modeling approaches utilizing cellular automata that can be used to study the dynamics of interacting cell systems both in simulation and in practice. New in this edition are chapters covering cell migration, tissue development, and cancer dynamics, as well as updated references and new research topic suggestions that reflect the rapid development of the field. The book begins with an introduction to pattern-forming principles in biology and the various mathematical modeling techniques that can be used to analyze them. Cellular automaton models are then discussed in detail for different types of cellular processes and interactions, including random movement, cell migration, adhesive cell interaction, alignment and cellular swarming, growth processes, pigment cell pattern formation, tissue development, tumor growth and invasion, and Turing-type patterns and excitable media. In ...

  16. Examples of modelling IP in AEM data: synthetic and real data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viezzoli, Andrea; Kaminskiy, Vladislav; Fiandaca, Gianluca

    There have been multiple evidences in the literature in the past several years of what has been referred to as IP effect in the Time Domain Airborne EM data (TDEM). This phenomenon is known to be responsible for incorrect inversion modelling of electrical resistivity, lower interpreted depth...... of investigation and lost information about chargeability of the subsurface as well as about other valuable parameters. Historically there have been many suggestions to account for the IP effect using the Cole-Cole model. In current paper we are showing the possibility to extract IP information from airborne TDEM...... with both high electrical conductivity and in resistive environments. Furthermore, modelling of IP effects allows corrected resistivity models. The Amakinskaya kimberlite pipe results highlight the relevance of chargeability for kimberlite exploration....

  17. Examples of scale interactions in local, urban, and regional air quality modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensink, C.; De Ridder, K.; Deutsch, F.; Lefebre, F.; Van de Vel, K.

    2008-09-01

    Air quality modeling can help to improve understanding of scale interactions related to meteorology, transport, emissions, formation, removal, and other processes taking place at local, urban, and regional scales. For the local scale, we used the coupling of a street canyon model with a Gaussian dispersion model to study the interactions of emissions and concentrations in urban streets and surrounding urban neighborhoods. The model combination was applied to a city quarter in Ghent, Belgium, and showed that up to 40% of the PM 2.5 concentrations inside street canyons were caused by emissions from the surrounding streets. For the urban scale, the AURORA model has been used successfully in assessments of urban air quality for entire cities or urbanized areas. It has been applied to the Ruhr area in Germany to evaluate the impact of compact or polycentric cities versus the impact of urban sprawl developments. Results for ozone and PM 10 showed that compact city structures may have more adverse effects in terms of air pollution exposure. For the regional scale, the EUROS model was used to study the urban and regional-scale interactions that are important in simulating concentrations of ozone, PM 2.5, and PM 10. It has been applied to study seasonal changes in aerosol concentrations in Flanders. High secondary aerosol concentrations were found during summer. This contribution was related to large contributions from outside the region, showing the importance of the continental scale when studying regional air quality problems.

  18. Design based Investigation on Construction of Mathematical Modelling Problems: Example of Financial Content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike TURAL SÖNMEZ

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine the construction of mathematical modelling problems process in the content of financial literacy. It is also aimed to create design proposals for construction of mathematical modelling problems. A design based research method was used in this study. The participants were three seventh grade students, six finance experts and nine mathematics education experts. Data collection tools were transcription of video and tapes group discussions, presentations and worksheets during mathematical modelling activities, and participant experts’ feedback form about mathematical modelling problems. There were three stages in this study. First stage was application of preliminary study. This stage gave information about convenience of problems to grade level, students’ timing for solution of problems, clarity of problems and students’ background about content. In second stage, finance experts commented on convenience of mathematical modelling problems to financial literacy standards. In third stage, mathematics education experts commented on convenience of problems to students’ grade level, mathematical modelling principles and seventh grade mathematics lesson objectives. They also gave suggestion on progress. The frequency value of theme in feedback forms was calculated and experts’ expressions were given as citation. It was given suggestion about stages and application of the design guide

  19. PHARMACOLOGICAL IN VITRO MODELS IN PRE-CLINICAL DRUG TESTING - EXAMPLE OF hSERT TRANSFECTED HUMAN EMBRYONIC KIDNEY CELLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlo Jakovljević

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Preclinical drug testing should be considered an important stage during examinations of its efficiency and safety in any likely indication observed. Purpose of the process is acquisition of substantial amount of particular drug-related data before approaching clinical trials in humans. Historical preclinical testing relied on available testing in microbe cultures and animal models. During recent decades laboratory techniques of human cell lines cultivation have been developed and improved. These provide unique possibility of drug acting mechanism testing in a simplified environment lacking basic homeostatic mechanisms. Some examples of these are measuring drug impact to biochemical transport, signaling or anabolic processes. Humane cell lines of embrional kidney 293 are an example of easy-to-grow and disseminate and quite endurable cell line. This methodological article notices some of the details of HEK293 cells cultivation and breading. We took transfection as an example of in vitro model creation for drug testing. Transfection refers to gene introduction into HEK293 cellular genome in order to achieve membrane expression of coded protein. In our case it would be human serotonin transporter. Article contains description of one particular methodological approach in measuring human serotonin transporter expression. The role and importance of serotonin pump in affective disorders genesis was already widely recognized. Aim of the paper was to emphasize feasibility of cell cultivation and its advantages in comparison with alternative traditional methods.

  20. Applications of resistivity modeling in reservoir development: examples from Balder Field, Norwegian North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paillet, Frederick L.; Haynes, F.M.; Buretz, O.M.

    2001-01-01

    The massive Paleocene oil sands of the Balder Field are overlain by several thinly bedded Eocene sand-prone packages of variable facies and reservoir quality. Although these sands have been penetrated by numerous exploration and development wells, uncertainty remains as to their extent, distribution, and ultimate effect on reservoir performance. The section is geologically complex (thin beds, injected sands, shale clasts and laminae, and faulting), and also contains a field-wide primary gas cap. With a depletion plan involving both gas and water injection, geologic/reservoir characterization of the Eocene is critical for prudent resource management during depletion. With this goal, resistivity modeling and core-based thin bed reservoir description from the first phase of development drilling have been integrated with seismic attribute mapping. Detailed core description, core permeability and grain size distribution data delineate six facies and help in distinguishing laterally continuous massive and laminated sands from potentially non-connected injection sands and non-reservoir quality siltstones and tuffs. Volumetric assessment of the thin sand resource has been enhanced by I-D forward modeling of induction log response using a commercial resistivity modeling program, R,BAN. After defining beds and facies with core and high resolution log data, the AHF60 array induction curve response was approximated using the 6FF40 response. Because many of the beds were thinner than 6FF40 resolution, the modeling is considered to provide a lower bound on R,. However, for most beds this model-based R, is significantly higher than that provided by one-foot vertical resolution shallow resistivity data, and is thought to be the best available estimate of true formation resistivity. Sensitivities in STOOIP were assessed with multiple R, earth models which can later be tested against production results. In addition, water saturation height functions, developed in vertical wells and

  1. Predictive power of theoretical modelling of the nuclear mean field: examples of improving predictive capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedes, I.; Dudek, J.

    2018-03-01

    We examine the effects of the parametric correlations on the predictive capacities of the theoretical modelling keeping in mind the nuclear structure applications. The main purpose of this work is to illustrate the method of establishing the presence and determining the form of parametric correlations within a model as well as an algorithm of elimination by substitution (see text) of parametric correlations. We examine the effects of the elimination of the parametric correlations on the stabilisation of the model predictions further and further away from the fitting zone. It follows that the choice of the physics case and the selection of the associated model are of secondary importance in this case. Under these circumstances we give priority to the relative simplicity of the underlying mathematical algorithm, provided the model is realistic. Following such criteria, we focus specifically on an important but relatively simple case of doubly magic spherical nuclei. To profit from the algorithmic simplicity we chose working with the phenomenological spherically symmetric Woods–Saxon mean-field. We employ two variants of the underlying Hamiltonian, the traditional one involving both the central and the spin orbit potential in the Woods–Saxon form and the more advanced version with the self-consistent density-dependent spin–orbit interaction. We compare the effects of eliminating of various types of correlations and discuss the improvement of the quality of predictions (‘predictive power’) under realistic parameter adjustment conditions.

  2. Cohort effects in dynamic models and their impact on vaccination programmes: an example from Hepatitis A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duval Bernard

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Infection rates for many infectious diseases have declined over the past century. This has created a cohort effect, whereby older individuals experienced a higher infection rate in their past than younger individuals do now. As a result, age-stratified seroprevalence profiles often differ from what would be expected from constant infection rates. Methods Here, we account for the cohort effect by fitting an age-structured compartmental model with declining transmission rates to Hepatitis A seroprevalence data for Canadian-born individuals. We compare the predicted impact of universal vaccination with and without including the cohort effect in the dynamic model. Results We find that Hepatitis A transmissibility has declined by a factor of 2.8 since the early twentieth century. When the cohort effect is not included in the model, incidence and mortality both with and without vaccination are significantly over-predicted. Incidence (respectively mortality over a 20 year period of universal vaccination is 34% (respectively 90% higher than if the cohort effect is included. The percentage reduction in incidence and mortality due to vaccination are also over-predicted when the cohort effect is not included. Similar effects are likely for many other infectious diseases where infection rates have declined significantly over past decades and where immunity is lifelong. Conclusion Failure to account for cohort effects has implications for interpreting seroprevalence data and predicting the impact of vaccination programmes with dynamic models. Cohort effects should be included in dynamic modelling studies whenever applicable.

  3. Model refinement through high-performance computing: an agent-based HIV example

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Recent advances in Immunology highlighted the importance of local properties on the overall progression of HIV infection. In particular, the gastrointestinal tract is seen as a key area during early infection, and the massive cell depletion associated with it may influence subsequent disease progression. This motivated the development of a large-scale agent-based model. Results Lymph nodes are explicitly implemented, and considerations on parallel computing permit large simulations and the inclusion of local features. The results obtained show that GI tract inclusion in the model leads to an accelerated disease progression, during both the early stages and the long-term evolution, compared to a theoretical, uniform model. Conclusions These results confirm the potential of treatment policies currently under investigation, which focus on this region. They also highlight the potential of this modelling framework, incorporating both agent-based and network-based components, in the context of complex systems where scaling-up alone does not result in models providing additional insights. PMID:20875154

  4. On the biopsychosocial model: the example of political economic causes of diabetes in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, S; Palafox, N

    2001-10-01

    Biomedical reductionism, the unwritten theory underlying the practice of medicine, is being supplanted by the biopsychosocial model. The explanatory power of the biopsychosocial model, however, is hampered by an inadequate mechanism to account for the social production of disease. We examine diabetes in the Marshall Islands to explore a conceptual approach that incorporates ecology, history, and political economy into the biopsychosocial model. The use of the Marshall Islands by the United States as testing grounds for nuclear war has led to ecological destruction, population displacement, and economic dependency. The consequence at the biological level has been an epidemic of weight gain, altered metabolism, and diabetes. A political economic perspective reveals that such outcomes are the result of decisions made by those who do not live with these decisions. Such a perspective points the way for social engagement and political work toward justice and health.

  5. Robustness Analysis of an Outranking Model Parameters’ Elicitation Method in the Presence of Noisy Examples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Rangel-Valdez

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the main concerns in Multicriteria Decision Aid (MCDA is robustness analysis. Some of the most important approaches to model decision maker preferences are based on fuzzy outranking models whose parameters (e.g., weights and veto thresholds must be elicited. The so-called preference-disaggregation analysis (PDA has been successfully carried out by means of metaheuristics, but this kind of works lacks a robustness analysis. Based on the above, the present research studies the robustness of a PDA metaheuristic method to estimate model parameters of an outranking-based relational system of preferences. The method is considered robust if the solutions obtained in the presence of noise can maintain the same performance in predicting preference judgments in a new reference set. The research shows experimental evidence that the PDA method keeps the same performance in situations with up to 10% of noise level, making it robust.

  6. Clues on chemical mechanisms from renormalizability: The example of a noisy cubic autocatalytic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Jean-Sébastien; Pérez-Mercader, Juan

    2017-08-01

    We study the effect of external power-law noise on the renormalizability of a specific reaction-diffusion system of equations describing a cubic autocatalytic chemical reaction. We show that changing the noise exponent modifies the divergence structure of loop integrals and thus the renormalizability of the model. The effects of noise-generated higher order interactions are discussed. We show how noise induces new interaction terms that can be interpreted as a manifestation of some (internal) ;chemical mechanism;. We also show how ideas of effective field theory can be applied to construct a more fundamental chemical model for this system.

  7. Aerospace Example

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This is a textbook, created example for illustration purposes. The System takes inputs of Pt, Ps, and Alt, and calculates the Mach number using the Rayleigh Pitot...

  8. Linear regression techniques for state-space models with application to biomedical/biochemical example

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khairudin, N.; Keesman, K.J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a novel approach to estimate parameters in an LTI continuous-time statespace model is proposed. Essentially, the approach is based on a so-called pqR-decomposition of the numerator and denominator polynomials of the system’s transfer function. This approach allows the physical

  9. Weight Loss Self-Efficacy and Modelled Behaviour: Gaining Competence through Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Benjamin R.; McDonald, Marvin J.

    2011-01-01

    The Weight Efficacy Life-Style Questionnaire (WEL) and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) assessed self-efficacy and physical activity for 124 volunteers aged 17-61. It was administered before and after participants attended a video modelling workshop. Half of the participants in the treatment and control groups were given…

  10. Concept mapping as an approach for expert-guided model building: The example of health literacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soellner, Renate; Lenartz, Norbert; Rudinger, Georg

    2017-02-01

    Concept mapping served as the starting point for the aim of capturing the comprehensive structure of the construct of 'health literacy.' Ideas about health literacy were generated by 99 experts and resulted in 105 statements that were subsequently organized by 27 experts in an unstructured card sorting. Multidimensional scaling was applied to the sorting data and a two and three-dimensional solution was computed. The three dimensional solution was used in subsequent cluster analysis and resulted in a concept map of nine "clusters": (1) self-regulation, (2) self-perception, (3) proactive approach to health, (4) basic literacy and numeracy skills, (5) information appraisal, (6) information search, (7) health care system knowledge and acting, (8) communication and cooperation, and (9) beneficial personality traits. Subsequently, this concept map served as a starting point for developing a "qualitative" structural model of health literacy and a questionnaire for the measurement of health literacy. On the basis of questionnaire data, a "quantitative" structural model was created by first applying exploratory factor analyses (EFA) and then cross-validating the model with confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). Concept mapping proved to be a highly valuable tool for the process of model building up to translational research in the "real world". Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. DATA FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING (D4EM): BACKGROUND AND EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS OF DATA AUTOMATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Data is a basic requirement for most modeling applications. Collecting data is expensive and time consuming. High speed internet connections and growing databases of online environmental data go a long way to overcoming issues of data scarcity. Among the obstacles still remaining...

  12. Modeling complexity in engineered infrastructure system: Water distribution network as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fang; Li, Xiang; Li, Ke

    2017-02-01

    The complex topology and adaptive behavior of infrastructure systems are driven by both self-organization of the demand and rigid engineering solutions. Therefore, engineering complex systems requires a method balancing holism and reductionism. To model the growth of water distribution networks, a complex network model was developed following the combination of local optimization rules and engineering considerations. The demand node generation is dynamic and follows the scaling law of urban growth. The proposed model can generate a water distribution network (WDN) similar to reported real-world WDNs on some structural properties. Comparison with different modeling approaches indicates that a realistic demand node distribution and co-evolvement of demand node and network are important for the simulation of real complex networks. The simulation results indicate that the efficiency of water distribution networks is exponentially affected by the urban growth pattern. On the contrary, the improvement of efficiency by engineering optimization is limited and relatively insignificant. The redundancy and robustness, on another aspect, can be significantly improved through engineering methods.

  13. Selection of asset investment models by hospitals: examination of influencing factors, using Switzerland as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicher, Bernhard

    2016-10-01

    Hospitals are responsible for a remarkable part of the annual increase in healthcare expenditure. This article examines one of the major cost drivers, the expenditure for investment in hospital assets. The study, conducted in Switzerland, identifies factors that influence hospitals' investment decisions. A suggestion on how to categorize asset investment models is presented based on the life cycle of an asset, and its influencing factors defined based on transaction cost economics. The influence of five factors (human asset specificity, physical asset specificity, uncertainty, bargaining power, and privacy of ownership) on the selection of an asset investment model is examined using a two-step fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. The research shows that outsourcing-oriented asset investment models are particularly favored in the presence of two combinations of influencing factors: First, if technological uncertainty is high and both human asset specificity and bargaining power of a hospital are low. Second, if assets are very specific, technological uncertainty is high and there is a private hospital with low bargaining power, outsourcing-oriented asset investment models are favored too. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis, it can be demonstrated that investment decisions of hospitals do not depend on isolated influencing factors but on a combination of factors. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Eigenvalue based inverse model of beam for structural modification and diagnostics: examples of using

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Majkut

    Full Text Available In the work, in order to solve the inverse problem, i.e. the problem of finding values of the additional quantities (mass, elasticity, the beam inverse model was proposed. Analysis of this model allows finding such a value of additional mass (elasticity as a function of its localization so that the free vibration frequency changes to desirable value. The criteria for choice of the “proper” pair (mass - its position, including the criterion allowing changing the position of the vibration node of the second mode of the free vibrations, were given. Analysis of the influence of uncertainties in the determination of the additional quantity value and its position on the desired free vibration frequency was carried out, too. The proposed beam inverse model can be employing to identification of the beam cracks. In such a case, the input quantity is free vibration frequency measured on the damaged object. Each determined free-vibration frequency allows determining the flexibility curve for the spring modeling crack as a function of its position. The searched parameters of the crack (its depth and position are indicated by the common point of two arbitrary curves. Accuracy of crack parameters determination depends on accuracy (uncertainty of frequency measurement. Only some regions containing the searched crack parameters can be obtained in such a situation.

  15. A proton therapy model using discrete difference equations with an example of treating hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodine, Erin N; Monia, K Lars

    2017-08-01

    Proton therapy is a type of radiation therapy used to treat cancer. It provides more localized particle exposure than other types of radiotherapy (e.g., x-ray and electron) thus reducing damage to tissue surrounding a tumor and reducing unwanted side effects. We have developed a novel discrete difference equation model of the spatial and temporal dynamics of cancer and healthy cells before, during, and after the application of a proton therapy treatment course. Specifically, the model simulates the growth and diffusion of the cancer and healthy cells in and surrounding a tumor over one spatial dimension (tissue depth) and the treatment of the tumor with discrete bursts of proton radiation. We demonstrate how to use data from in vitro and clinical studies to parameterize the model. Specifically, we use data from studies of Hepatocellular carcinoma, a common form of liver cancer. Using the parameterized model we compare the ability of different clinically used treatment courses to control the tumor. Our results show that treatment courses which use conformal proton therapy (targeting the tumor from multiple angles) provides better control of the tumor while using lower treatment doses than a non-conformal treatment course, and thus should be recommend for use when feasible.

  16. Appropriate accuracy of models for decision -support systems; case example for the Elbe river basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; van der Wal, K.U.; Booij, Martijn J.; Pahl-Wostl, C.; Schmidt, S.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Jakeman, A.J.

    2004-01-01

    Given the growing complexity of water-resources management there will be an increasing need for integrated tools to support policy analysis, communication, and research. A key aspect of the design is the combination of process models from different scientific disciplines in an integrated system. In

  17. ESIP's Emerging Provenance and Context Content Standard Use Cases: Developing Examples and Models for Data Stewardship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramdeen, S.; Hills, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Earth science data collections range from individual researchers' private collections to large-scale data warehouses, from computer-generated data to field or lab based observations. These collections require stewardship. Fundamentally, stewardship ensures long term preservation and the provision of access to the user community. In particular, stewardship includes capturing appropriate metadata and documentation--and thus the context of the data's creation and any changes they underwent over time --to enable data reuse. But scientists and science data managers must translate these ideas into practice. How does one balance the needs of current and (projected) future stakeholders? In 2011, the Data Stewardship Committee (DSC) of the Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) began developing the Provenance and Context Content Standard (PCCS). As an emerging standard, PCCS provides a framework for 'what' must be captured or preserved as opposed to describing only 'how' it should be done. Originally based on the experiences of NASA and NOAA researchers within ESIP, the standard currently provides data managers with content items aligned to eight key categories. While the categories and content items are based on data life cycles of remote sensing missions, they can be generalized to cover a broader set of activities, for example, preservation of physical objects. These categories will include the information needed to ensure the long-term understandability and usability of earth science data products. In addition to the PCCS, the DSC is developing a series of use cases based on the perspectives of the data archiver, data user, and the data consumer that will connect theory and practice. These cases will act as specifications for developing PCCS-based systems. They will also provide for examination of the categories and content items covered in the PCCS to determine if any additions are needed to cover the various use cases, and also provide rationale and

  18. Application of DOI index to analysis of selected examples of resistivity imaging models in Quaternary sediments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glazer Michał

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Interpretation of resistivity cross sections may be in many cases unreliable due to the presence of artifacts left by the inversion process. One way to avoid erroneous conclusions about geological structure is creation of Depth of Investigation (DOI index maps, which describe durability of prepared model with respect to variable parameters of inversion. To assess the usefulness of this interpretation methodology in resistivity imaging method over quaternary sediments, it has been used to one synthetic data set and three investigation sites. Two of the study areas were placed in the Upper Silesian Industrial District region: Bytom - Karb, Chorzów - Chorzow Stary; and one in the Southern Pomeranian Lake District across Piława River Valley. Basing on the available geological information the results show high utility of DOI index in analysis of received resistivity models, on which areas poorly constrained by data has been designated.

  19. Uncertainty analysis in WWTP model applications: a critical discussion using an example from design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist; Neumann, Marc B.

    2009-01-01

    This study focuses on uncertainty analysis of WWTP models and analyzes the issue of framing and how it affects the interpretation of uncertainty analysis results. As a case study, the prediction of uncertainty involved in model-based design of a wastewater treatment plant is studied. The Monte...... of design performance criteria differs significantly. The implication for the practical applications of uncertainty analysis in the wastewater industry is profound: (i) as the uncertainty analysis results are specific to the framing used, the results must be interpreted within the context of that framing...... to stoichiometric, biokinetic and influent parameters; (2) uncertainty due to hydraulic behaviour of the plant and mass transfer parameters; (3) uncertainty due to the combination of (1) and (2). The results demonstrate that depending on the way the uncertainty analysis is framed, the estimated uncertainty...

  20. Models of fluidized granular materials: examples of non-equilibrium stationary states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puglisi, Andrea [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique Batiment 210, Universite de Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay Cedex (France); Cecconi, Fabio [INFM Center for Statistical Mechanics and Complexity and Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale A Moro 2, I-00185 Rome (Italy); Vulpiani, Angelo [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita ' La Sapienza' , INFM Center for Statistical Mechanics and Complexity (SMC), INFN Sezione di Roma-1 ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale A Moro 2, I-00185, Rome (Italy)

    2005-06-22

    We review some models of granular materials fluidized by means of external forces, such as random homogeneous forcing with damping, vibrating plates, flow in an inclined channel and flow in a double well potential. All these systems show the presence of density correlations and non-Gaussian velocity distributions. These models are useful in understanding the role of a kinetically defined 'temperature' (in this case the so-called granular temperature) in a non-equilibrium stationary state. In the homogeneously randomly driven gas the granular temperature is different from that of the driving bath. Moreover, two different granular materials mixed together may stay in a stationary state with different temperatures. At the same time, the granular temperature determines (as in equilibrium systems) the escape time in a double well potential.

  1. Improving models of democracy: the example of lagged effects of economic development, education, and gender equality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaev, Mikhail

    2014-07-01

    The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Dynamical Evaluation of Ocean Models Using the Gulf Stream as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-10

    ECMWF over 2004-2006, (c) a 1978-2002 climatology derived using an ECMWF 40-year reanalysis (ERA-40) (Kallberg et al. 2004) and (d) a 2003-2008 clima ...these experiments starts from an initial state forced by ECMWF clima - tology for the surface momentum and heat. However, starting points for the two...winds. This correction is applied to a new model spin up using the ERA-40 clima - tology to generate a new initial condition for an interannual forced

  3. Hydrogeological flow in gypsum karst areas: some examples from northern Italy and main circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolomeo Vigna

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A Messinian succession containing gypsum beds crops out in northern Italy, mainly in Piedmont and along the northern flank of the Apennine mountains in Emilia-Romagna. These gypsum bodies have been extensively quarried at the surface, in outcrops, and through underground quarries. In Emilia-Romagna these gypsum outcrops can be rather extensive, several km long and up to 1 km wide, while in Piedmont they are mostly covered by silty-marly deposits of Upper Messinian and Pliocene age and show only sparse and small outcrops. The underground quarrying of these evaporite bodies in Piedmont has allowed studying in detail their hydrogeology, and the ways in which water flows through these karst rocks. In contrast, in Emilia-Romagna the hydrogeology of these aquifers has been studied with traditional spring water monitoring and speleological methods. On the basis of the results it has been possible to define three conceptual models regarding the water circulation in these evaporites, similar to the models existing for carbonate aquifers. The models represent aquifers with decreasing vulnerability to pollution, from the more vulnerable system with dominant conduit drainage, characterizing most of the known gypsum aquifers, to those with interconnected conduit drainage and with dispersive circulation.

  4. An example of application of stochastic model to forecasting karst springs discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ristic Vakanjac, V.; Stevanovic, Z.; Milanovic, S.; Vasic, Lj.

    2012-04-01

    The groundwater resources in karst are one of the most significant sources of drinking water supply worldwide. The importance of karst is reflected in the ability of karst massifs to accumulate a certain quantity of water and subsequently release it through karst springs. Therefore, well developed karst could amortize the effects of huge and intensive rainfalls, i.e. these regions could largely reduce the impact of floods and preserve stored water for certain period of time. The extensive use of karst groundwater in water supply systems throughout many countries in SE Europe is due to the wide distribution of karstic areas, the abundant reserves, and its excellent quality. However, because of an unstable flow regime when only natural springflow is tapped, numerous problems arise during the recession period (summer-autumn). A mathematical model that simulates daily discharges of karst springs in the multiannual period was developed at the Department of Hydrogeology of the Faculty of Mining & Geology, Serbia. This model contains several independent levels. Each level performs a specific function, different by their mathematical structure and period of time discretization, with the same final goal to define daily discharge over a certain period. The model was conceived at 5 levels (modules) of different computing functions and purposes (Ristić, 2007): •level 1. - completing the series of available mean monthly discharge by MNC model •level 2. - determining the duration of an appropriate period for evaluation of elements of multiannual water balance of the karst aquifer - INTKR •level 3. - water budget of the karst aquifer - BILANS •level 4. - identifying parameters of transformation functions module - TRANSFUNK •level 5. - simulation of daily discharges for a multi annual period - SIMIST The model is applied on the Mlava Spring, at the northern margin of Beljanica Mt. which is the largest spring of Carpathian Arch in Eastern Serbia. The coefficient of

  5. Inferring tectonic activity using drainage network and RT model: an example from the western Himalayas, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, Ramendra; Jain, Vikrant

    2017-04-01

    Morphology of the landscape and derived features are regarded to be an important tool for inferring about tectonic activity in an area, since surface exposures of these subsurface processes may not be available or may get eroded away over time. This has led to an extensive research in application of the non-planar morphological attributes like river long profile and hypsometry for tectonic studies, whereas drainage network as a proxy for tectonic activity has not been explored greatly. Though, significant work has been done on drainage network pattern which started in a qualitative manner and over the years, has evolved to incorporate more quantitative aspects, like studying the evolution of a network under the influence of external and internal controls. Random Topology (RT) model is one of these concepts, which elucidates the connection between evolution of a drainage network pattern and the entropy of the drainage system and it states that in absence of any geological controls, a natural population of channel networks will be topologically random. We have used the entropy maximization principle to provide a theoretical structure for the RT model. Furthermore, analysis was carried out on the drainage network structures around Jwalamukhi thrust in the Kangra reentrant in western Himalayas, India, to investigate the tectonic activity in the region. Around one thousand networks were extracted from the foot-wall (fw) and hanging-wall (hw) region of the thrust sheet and later categorized based on their magnitudes. We have adopted the goodness of fit test for comparing the network patterns in fw and hw drainage with those derived using the RT model. The null hypothesis for the test was, the drainage networks in the fw are statistically more similar than those on the hw, to the network patterns derived using the RT model for any given magnitude. The test results are favorable to our null hypothesis for networks with smaller magnitudes (< 9), whereas for larger

  6. Oscillations of neutral K mesons in the theory of dynamical expansion of the weak interaction theory or in the theory of dynamical analogy of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beshtoev, Kh.M.

    1998-01-01

    The elements of the theory of dynamical expansion of the weak interaction theory working on the tree level, i.e., the theory of dynamical analogy of Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrices, are given. The equation for mass difference of K 1 0 , K 2 0 mesons or the length of K 0 -, K bar 0 - meson oscillations is calculated. In the framework of this theory the oscillations of K 0 , K 0 mesons which arise at violation of strangeness by B bosons are considered. The general conclusion is: the length of K 0 -, K 0 -meson oscillations is proportional to the mass of B boson (which changes strangeness) in the fourth degree

  7. From theoretical model to practical use: an example of knowledge translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørk, Ida Torunn; Lomborg, Kirsten; Nielsen, Carsten Munch; Brynildsen, Grethe; Frederiksen, Anne-Marie Skovsgaard; Larsen, Karin; Reierson, Inger Åse; Sommer, Irene; Stenholt, Britta

    2013-10-01

    To present a case of knowledge translation in nursing education and practice and discusses mechanisms relevant to bringing knowledge into action. The process of knowledge translation aspires to close the gap between theory and practice. Knowledge translation is a cyclic process involving both the creation and application of knowledge in several phases. The case presented in this paper is the translation of the Model of Practical Skill Performance into education and practice. Advantages and problems with the use of this model and its adaptation and tailoring to local contexts illustrate the cyclic and iterative process of knowledge translation. The cultivation of a three-sided relationship between researchers, educators, and clinical nurses was a major asset in driving the process of knowledge translation. The knowledge translation process gained momentum by replacing passive diffusion strategies with interaction and teamwork between stakeholders. The use of knowledge creates feedback that might have consequences for the refinement and tailoring of that same knowledge itself. With end-users in mind, several heuristics were used by the research group to increase clarity of the model and to tailor the implementation of knowledge to the users. This article illustrates the need for enduring collaboration between stakeholders to promote the process of knowledge translation. Translation of research knowledge into practice is a time-consuming process that is enhanced when appropriate support is given by leaders in the involved facilities. Knowledge translation is a time-consuming and collaborative endeavour. On the basis of our experience we advocate the implementation and use of a conceptual framework for the entire process of knowledge translation. More descriptions of knowledge translation in the nursing discipline are needed to inspire and advise in this process. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Control design on the basis of approximate nonlinear models: the inverted pendulum example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jouffroy, Jerome; Lottin, Jacques

    dealt with control of some classes of nonlinear systems. One of these families concerns flat systems for which it is possible to design reference trajectories that are admissible both for state variables and control input. However nonlinear plants may not exhibit such flatness properties since analysis...... is done in the whole state space. Since in many situations the process evolution is confined in a reduced domain, one solution consists in building an equivalent nonlinear model which exhibits flatness properties in order to use related control design tools. The inverted pendulum system is used...

  9. 1D layered velocity models and microseismic event locations: synthetic examples for a case with a single linear receiver array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akram, Jubran; Eaton, David W.

    2017-10-01

    We discuss various aspects of 1D velocity-model building for application to microseismic data analysis. We generate simple synthetic example data using a widely used single linear array geometry. The synthetic data contain 30 sources with known locations for a reference model based on previous studies of the Barnett shale. We investigate several key factors that should be considered, including selection of the calibration technique, inclusion of a priori information such as lateral heterogeneity and parameter ranges, and choice of algorithm for travel time computations. For the source-receiver geometry considered here, hypocenter location errors (±6 m in X and ±12 m in Z) can result from differently calibrated models only and without including the errors in picked arrival times and polarization estimates. We find that the errors in hypocenter locations are reduced (±3 m in X and ±6 m in Z) when a model calibrated with multiple shots simultaneously is used. Using four different models (vertical fault, dipping layers, channels, and these effects combined), we demonstrate that systematic errors in hypocenter locations can result when a 1D layered model is used in lieu of a laterally heterogeneous subsurface. Finally, we show that event locations from a velocity model calibrated using direct-arrival times are more stable than from a model calibrated with first-arrival times.

  10. Thermal effects in quantized fields in the example of the Gross-Neveu model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Englert, B.G.

    1981-01-01

    The Gross-Nerau model is applied to discuss thermal effects in quantized fields in an exemplary way. For this the effective potential for arbitrary temperature is calculated in one-loop approximation, i.e. in lowest order of the 1/N-expansion. It is proved to be convenient to regulate the model dimensionally and to renormalize by subtraction in the momentum dimensionally and to renormalize by subtraction in the momentum space. From the effective potential the temperature dependence of the fermion mass generated by dynamical symmetry breaking is obtained. This result can be reproduced by a manifestly selfconsistent calculation which leads in a natural way to the tadpole equation. The calculation of temperature dependent elastic scattering cross sections rounds the one-loop calculations of and gives hints, in which direction the experimental search for thermal effects could possible be successful. Furthermore the tadpole equation is evaluation in two-loop approximation. Thereby it is shown that only a self-consistent renormalization yields evaluable results while in a perturbative renormalization the dimensional transmutation cannot be performed. Indeed no real improvements of the one-loop results are obtained which is due to the fact that not all contributions of the next 1/N-order are taken into account. (orig.) [de

  11. Hyperspectral water quality retrieval model: taking Malaysia inshore sea area as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tingwei; Zhang, Jie; Ma, Yi; Li, Jing; Lim, Boonleong; Roslinah, Samad

    2007-11-01

    Remote sensing technique provides the possibility of rapid and synchronous monitoring in a large area of the water quality, which is an important element for the aquatic ecosystem quality assessment of islands and coastal zones, especially for the nearshore and tourism sea area. Tioman Island of Malaysia is regarded as one of ten of the best islands in the world and attracts tourists from all over the world for its clear sea, beautiful seashore and charming scenery. In this paper, on the basis of in situ dataset in the study area, distribution discipline of water quality parameters is analyzed to find that phytoplankton pigment, rather than suspended sediment is the main water quality parameter in the study area; seawater there is clean but not very oligotrophic; seawater spectra contains distinct features. Then water quality hyperspectral retrieval models are developed based on in situ data to calculate the chlorophyll a concentration ([chl-a]), transparency (SD) with satisfactory performance. It's suggested that model precision should be validated further using more in-situ data.

  12. The perceptual trap: Experimental and modelling examples of soil moisture, hydraulic conductivity and response units in complex subsurface settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackisch, Conrad; Demand, Dominic; Allroggen, Niklas; Loritz, Ralf; Zehe, Erwin

    2017-04-01

    In order to discuss hypothesis testing in hydrology, the question of the solid foundation of such tests has to be answered. But how certain are we about our measurements of the components of the water balance and the states and dynamics of the complex systems? What implicit assumptions or bias are already embedded in our perception of the processes? How can we find light in the darkness of heterogeneity? We will contribute examples from experimental findings, modelling approaches and landscape analysis to the discussion. Example soil moisture and the soil continuum: The definition of soil moisture as fraction of water in the porous medium assumes locally well-mixed conditions. Moreover, a unique relation of soil water retention presumes instant local thermodynamic equilibrium in the pore water arrangement. We will show findings from soil moisture responses to precipitation events, from irrigation experiments, and from a model study of initial infiltration velocities. The results highlight, that the implicit assumption relating soil moisture state dynamics with actual soil water flow is biased towards the slow end of the actual velocity distribution and rather blind for preferential flow acting in a very small proportion of the pore space. Moreover, we highlight the assumption of a well-defined continuum during the extrapolation of point-scale measurements and why spatially and temporally continuous observation techniques of soil water states are essential for advancing our understanding and development of subsurface process theories. Example hydraulic conductivity: Hydraulic conductivity lies at the heart of hydrological research and modelling. Its values can range across several orders of magnitude at a single site alone. Yet, we often consider it a crisp, effective parameter. We have conducted measurements of soil hydraulic conductivity in the lab and in the field. Moreover, we assessed infiltration capacity and conducted plot-scale irrigation experiments to

  13. The application of transportation models in emergency situations: Example of a hypothetical city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antić Jovana Z.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency situations, where mass evacuation of people is present, are serious problem that is difficult to resolve. Such events have become more frequent in recent years. The transportation network is a key part of the infrastructure when it comes to events with disastrous consequences, because a large population of people must be effectively evacuated from densely populated urban areas. Therefore, requirements during an evacuation process are made in a relatively short period of time, and available capacity of the road network has become the main resource to be efficiently utilized in order to shorten the time required for evacuation. By using transportation model, the paper presents the simulation of the traffic in a situation when there is a need to evacuate large numbers of people, in order to propose measures that could be efficiently used.

  14. Supply-demand 3D dynamic model in water resources evaluation: taking Lebanon as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hong; Hou, Zhimin

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, supply-demand 3D dynamic model is adopted to create a measurement of a region’s capacity to provide available water to meet the needs of its population. First of all, we draw a diagram between supply and demand. Then taking the main dynamic factors into account, we establish an index to evaluate the balance of supply and demand. The three dimension vector reflects the scarcity of industrial, agricultural and residential water. Lebanon is chosen as the object of case study, and we do quantitative analysis of its current situation. After data collecting and processing, we calculate the 3D vector in 2012, which reveals that agriculture is susceptible to water scarcity. Water resources of Lebanon are “physical rich” but “economic scarcity” according to the correlation chart and other statistical analysis.

  15. Intertwining evidence- and model-based reasoning in physics sensemaking: An example from electrostatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Rosemary S.; Odden, Tor Ole B.

    2017-12-01

    Our field has long valued the goal of teaching students not just the facts of physics, but also the thinking and reasoning skills of professional physicists. The complexity inherent in scientific reasoning demands that we think carefully about how we conceptualize for ourselves, enact in our classes, and encourage in our students the relationship between the multifaceted practices of professional science. The current study draws on existing research in the philosophy of science and psychology to advocate for intertwining two important aspects of scientific reasoning: using evidence from experimentation and modeling. We present a case from an undergraduate physics course to illustrate how these aspects can be intertwined productively and describe specific ways in which these aspects of reasoning can mutually reinforce one another in student learning. We end by discussing implications for this work for instruction in introductory physics courses and for research on scientific reasoning at the undergraduate level.

  16. Linking epigenetic function to electrostatics: The DNMT2 structural model example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, Gilberto Cavalheiro; Vieira, Gustavo Fioravanti; Sinigaglia, Marialva; Silva Valente, Vera Lúcia da

    2017-01-01

    The amino acid sequence of DNMT2 is very similar to the catalytic domains of bacterial and eukaryotic proteins. However, there is great variability in the region of recognition of the target sequence. While bacterial DNMT2 acts as a DNA methyltransferase, previous studies have indicated low DNA methylation activity in eukaryotic DNMT2, with preference by tRNA methylation. Drosophilids are known as DNMT2-only species and the DNA methylation phenomenon is a not elucidated case yet, as well as the ontogenetic and physiologic importance of DNMT2 for this species group. In addition, more recently study showed that methylation in the genome in Drosophila melanogaster is independent in relation to DNMT2. Despite these findings, Drosophilidae family has more than 4,200 species with great ecological diversity and historical evolution, thus we, therefore, aimed to examine the drosophilids DNMT2 in order to verify its conservation at the physicochemical and structural levels in a functional context. We examined the twenty-six DNMT2 models generated by molecular modelling and five crystallographic structures deposited in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) using different approaches. Our results showed that despite sequence and structural similarity between species close related, we found outstanding differences when they are analyzed in the context of surface distribution of electrostatic properties. The differences found in the electrostatic potentials may be linked with different affinities and processivity of DNMT2 for its different substrates (DNA, RNA or tRNA) and even for interactions with other proteins involved in the epigenetic mechanisms.

  17. Thermo-kinetic instabilities in model reactors. Examples in experimental tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavadera, Marco Lubrano; Sorrentino, Giancarlo; Sabia, Pino; de Joannon, Mara; Cavaliere, Antonio; Ragucci, Raffaele

    2017-11-01

    The use of advanced combustion technologies (such as MILD, LTC, etc.) is among the most promising methods to reduce emission of pollutants. For such technologies, working temperatures are enough low to boost the formation of several classes of pollutants, such as NOx and soot. To access this temperature range, a significant dilution as well as preheating of reactants is required. Such conditions are usually achieved by a strong recirculation of exhaust gases that simultaneously dilute and pre-heat the fresh reactants. These peculiar operative conditions also imply strong fuel flexibility, thus allowing the use of low calorific value (LCV) energy carriers with high efficiency. However, the intersection of low combustion temperatures and highly diluted mixtures with intense pre-heating alters the evolution of the combustion process with respect to traditional flames, leading to features such as the susceptibility to oscillations, which are undesirable during combustion. Therefore, an effective use of advanced combustion technologies requires a thorough analysis of the combustion kinetic characteristics in order to identify optimal operating conditions and control strategies with high efficiency and low pollutant emissions. The present work experimentally and numerically characterized the ignition and oxidation processes of methane and propane, highly diluted in nitrogen, at atmospheric pressure, in a Plug Flow Reactor and a Perfectly Stirred Reactor under a wide range of operating conditions involving temperatures, mixture compositions and dilution levels. The attention was focused particularly on the chemistry of oscillatory phenomena and multistage ignitions. The global behavior of these systems can be qualitatively and partially quantitatively modeled using the detailed kinetic models available in the literature. Results suggested that, for diluted conditions and lower adiabatic flame temperatures, the competition among several pathways, i.e. intermediate- and

  18. Modelling carbon and water flows in terrestrial ecosystems in the boreal zone - examples from Oskarshamn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Louise; Gu stafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik

    2007-12-01

    Carbon budgets and mean residence times were estimated in four hypothetical ecosystems. The greatest uncertainties in the estimations lie in the calculation of fluxes to and from the field layer. A parametrisation method based on multiple criteria, synthesising a wide range of empirical knowledge on ecosystem behaviour, proved to be useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, to demonstrate model sensitivity, and to identify processes where our current knowledge is limited. The parameterizations derived from the study of the hypothetical systems were used to estimate site-specific carbon and water budgets for four ecosystems located within the Oskarshamn study-area. Measured soil respiration was used to calibrate the simulations. An analysis of the simulated carbon fluxes indicated that two of the ecosystems, namely the grassland and the spruce forest, were net sources of carbon dioxide, while the alder and the pine forest were net sinks of CO 2 . In the former case, this was interpreted as a result of recent drainage of the organogenic soils and the concurrent increase in decomposition. The results from the study conformed rather well with results from a previous study on carbon budgets from the Oskarshamn study area

  19. Bioclimatic indices based on the menex model example on Banja Luka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pecelj Milica

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It has long been known that weather and climate have influence on human health and well-being. The human organism is in constant interaction with the environmental conditions. To access the atmospheric impact on humans, different methods in human bioclimatology are created. Most of them are based on human heat balance. In this paper it has been tried to present several bioclimatic indices based on the human heat balance according to the bioclimatic model menex (man-environment exchange. The aim of this paper is to present bioclimatic conditions in Banja Luka vicinage (Bosnia and Herzegovina and to explore climate-recreation relationship. In the near vicinity of Banja Luka there are three spa centers that are favorable for recreation. For this analysis average available daily weather data for two extreme months (January and July, 1990 were used as well as the average monthly weather values for the period 1961-1990. The data were taken from Banja Luka weather station. As a result, several thermophisiological bioclimatic indices have been obtained. These are heat load in man, physiological strain, subjective temperature, subjective physiological temperature.

  20. A model for reliability analysis and calculation applied in an example from chemical industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pejović Branko B.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the paper is reliability design in polymerization processes that occur in reactors of a chemical industry. The designed model is used to determine the characteristics and indicators of reliability, which enabled the determination of basic factors that result in a poor development of a process. This would reduce the anticipated losses through the ability to control them, as well as enabling the improvement of the quality of production, which is the major goal of the paper. The reliability analysis and calculation uses the deductive method based on designing of a scheme for fault tree analysis of a system based on inductive conclusions. It involves the use standard logical symbols and rules of Boolean algebra and mathematical logic. The paper eventually gives the results of the work in the form of quantitative and qualitative reliability analysis of the observed process, which served to obtain complete information on the probability of top event in the process, as well as objective decision making and alternative solutions.

  1. A subaqueous eruption model for shallow-water, small volume eruptions: Evidence from two Precambrian examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Wulf U.

    Ancient, shallow-water, pyroclastic deposits are identified in the Paleoproterozoic Ketilidian Mobile belt, southeast Greenland at Kangerluluk and in the Neoproterozoic Gariep belt of Namibia in the Schakalsberg Mountains. The 1-30 m-thick tuff and lapilli tuff deposits are interpreted as eruption-fed density current deposits emanating from tephra jets that collapsed under subaqueous conditions due to water ingress. The presence of 1-10 mm diameter armoured lapilli, with a central vesicular lapillus or shard, suggests the existence of high velocity, gas, water vapour, and particle-rich tephra jets. A transition from a gas-steam supported tephra jet to a cold water-laden density current without an intermediate stage of storage and remobilization is inferred. Interpretation of a 5-15 m-thick lapilli tuff breccia further supports explosive subaqueous mechanisms. Pyroclasts in the lapilli tuff breccia are interpreted as bombs emplaced ballistically. Multiple bomb sags produced by the impact of rounded juvenile crystal-rich pyroclasts required a water-exclusion zone formed either by a continuous magma uprush or multiple jet activity occurring concurrently, rather than as isolated tephra jets. Intercalated density current deposits indicate uprush events of limited duration and their recurrence with rapid collapse after each pulse. A new subaqueous Surtseyan-type eruption model is proposed based on observations from these two Precambrian study areas.

  2. Evaluating data for atmospheric models, an example: IO + NO2 = IONO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, David M

    2006-03-09

    Data for the title reaction have been fit to the different formalisms used by the NASA and IUPAC data evaluation panels. The data are well represented by either formalism. Reported values for the bond dissociation energy at 0 K, D0(IO-NO2) vary from about 95 to 135 kJ mol(-1), with uncertainty ranges of about 20 kJ mol(-1). Master equation/RRKM methods were employed in an attempt to reconcile these values with the data. This was possible within reasonable bounds and suggests a value in the neighborhood of 150 kJ mol(-1). As always, there are sufficient assumptions and unknowns in such an attempt, that this value is somewhat uncertain, but the true value is not expected to be too far from this result. Thus, it is possible to evaluate data of the type addressed here in a manner reasonably consistent with the basic understanding of pressure dependent rate coefficients for use in atmospheric or other models of "engineering" problems. There are, however, strict limits on our ability to know specific details. It is possible that true anharmonicity corrections that include stretch-bend interactions as well as effects due to averaging rotational contributions could combine to lower this value by as much as 10 kJ mol(-1). In addition collision and energy transfer parameters are somewhat uncertain.

  3. Modelling carbon and water flows in terrestrial ecosystems in the boreal zone - examples from Oskarshamn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlberg, Louise [Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm (Sweden); Gu stafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Royal Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-12-15

    Carbon budgets and mean residence times were estimated in four hypothetical ecosystems. The greatest uncertainties in the estimations lie in the calculation of fluxes to and from the field layer. A parametrisation method based on multiple criteria, synthesising a wide range of empirical knowledge on ecosystem behaviour, proved to be useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, to demonstrate model sensitivity, and to identify processes where our current knowledge is limited. The parameterizations derived from the study of the hypothetical systems were used to estimate site-specific carbon and water budgets for four ecosystems located within the Oskarshamn study-area. Measured soil respiration was used to calibrate the simulations. An analysis of the simulated carbon fluxes indicated that two of the ecosystems, namely the grassland and the spruce forest, were net sources of carbon dioxide, while the alder and the pine forest were net sinks of CO{sub 2}. In the former case, this was interpreted as a result of recent drainage of the organogenic soils and the concurrent increase in decomposition. The results from the study conformed rather well with results from a previous study on carbon budgets from the Oskarshamn study area.

  4. Examples of model-free implant restorations using Cerec inLab 4.0 software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, S; Schley, J; Kern, T; Fiedler, K; Wolfart, S

    2012-01-01

    This case report demonstrates two ways to fabricate model-free implant restorations with the Cerec inLab 4.0 software. Because the patient, a woman with a history of periodontal disease, did not wish to have a removable partial denture, implant therapy was planned for the restoration of her edentulous areas 14/15 and 24/25. In addition, the restoration was to provide functional relief of the natural maxillary anterior teeth. The two implants for the first quadrant were planned as single-tooth restorations. Each was designed as a full contour implant supra-structure using the Cerec Biogeneric abutment design technique. After completing the design phase, each restoration proposal was split into two parts: a zirconia abutment and a lithium disilicate crown. For the restoration of the second quadrant, custom 20-degree-angled abutments were individualized and acquired with the Cerec camera. A block crown was then designed, milled in burn-out acrylic resin, and fabricated from a lithium disilicate glass-ceramic ingot according to the press ceramic technique. Additionally methods of provisional restorations are discussed.

  5. Application of the hydrodynamic predictive modeling on the example of the pumping station 'Bezdan 1'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polomčić Dušan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the area of Bezdan, the construction of a new pumping station, p.s. 'Bezdan 1', on the location of the existing and nonfunctional pumping station 'Bezdan I', is envisaged. Given the position of the future pump station, a problem of digging the foundation pits in terms of protection from high groundwater levels, was noticed. This paper aims to analyze the possibilities for lowering the groundwater levels below the projected elevation, which will enable unobstructed work on the pumping station. By using the hydrodynamic analysis and its most complex and most applicable methods of three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling of aquifer regime, based on the numerical method of finite differences, the system of protection and variations of the protection solutions from groundwater at the research location of the future p.s. 'Bezdan 1' was defined. Three variants of solution were given, and characteristics of the system of protection from groundwater were defined for each, the optimal number of drainage wells in the system and their spatial distribution and the time required for maximal effects of the lowering of the groundwater levels below the elevation of the excavation facilities of CS 'Bezdan 1'. Presented paper provides the basis for some of the methods of multicriteria optimization and the selection of the optimal variant of the system of protection from groundwater's, considering, in this way, the weight of various factors that influence the choice of the variant, such as technical, economic, environmental and safety factors.

  6. MODELING OF THE BASIC PARAMETERS OF ECONOMIC STABILITY (BY THE EXAMPLE OF JSC “BOGUCHAROVO”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Serebriakova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The article describes the author's vision of the process of management of economic stability of the enterprise by means of simulation of the main parameters of its activity and justified the relevance of the theme of the study. Studied theoretical and methodical bases of economic stability of the enterprise in accordance with the Russian development of a market economy, as well as practical recommendations on modeling of the main parameters of the economic sustainability of the organization. Currently, management of economic stability is one of the most important factors of functioning and development of the enterprises in conditions of the global financial crisis. The relevance of this trend is increasing in line with the increasing complexity of economic ties, changing external environment. A comprehensive approach to the development of the most appropriate variants of the mechanism of management of economic sustainability taking into account the experience of developed countries, industry and sector of factors of external environment can become the basis for developing a common long-term economic development strategy of the enterprise. Problems of economic stability of enterprises caused by the fact that normally carried out in a changing environment operational measures allow for a short time to keep the state of the enterprise is stable, but not change the situation radically. That is, they are associated, on the one hand, with a lack of vision of development of the enterprises, with another - the narrowness of the approach applied to the diagnosis of the existing situation and forecasting of changes in external factors.

  7. Defining a conceptual model for the coastal aquifers of Mediterranean islands, an example from Corsica (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoni, Sebastien; Garel, Emilie; Huneau, Frederic

    2016-04-01

    A hydrochemical and isotope study was conducted to identify the flow paths, the recharge areas and the geochemical processes governing the evolution of groundwater in a Mediterranean carbonate coastal aquifer. The study is expected to improve the hydrogeological conceptual model based on environmental tracer investigations tools to characterise and quantify the aquifer system of Bonifacio. The groundwater resource represents the unique drinking water resource of the southern Corsica and the region faces a high pressures over the groundwater resource during the touristic period (2,000,000 tourists per year). A well-documented description of the geology and structure of this basin was the starting point for a detailed hydrogeochemical and isotopic study at the aquifer scale. A hydrochemical (physico-chemical parameters, major ions) and isotope (δ2H, δ18O, 3H) survey of rainwater and groundwater has been carried out monthly during almost two years. A local meteoric water line has been defined and marine, terrestrial and anthropogenic influences on the recharge water hydrochemistry have been described. Preferential recharge during autumn/winter of rainfall is observed and a depletion in the isotopic signature for some groundwater samples suggests a recharge in higher altitude from the surrounding granites. A modification of the input signal during infiltration through the unsaturated zone appears and the groundwater hydrochemistry displays differential variations in time and space, with the presence of inertial water bodies in the lower aquifer mainly. In this context, CFCs (CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113) and SF6 were used to evaluate groundwater residence time. CFCs have been relevant despite the presence of a deep unsaturated zone and the computed rate of groundwater renewal is pluriannual to multi-decadal. Natural SF6 was found in granites and has been used as a direct tracer of groundwater origin, highlighting its role in the aquifer lateral recharge. Strontium

  8. From Field Data to Fracture Network Modeling: An Example Incorporating Spatial Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Jane C. S.; Billaux, Daniel M.

    1987-07-01

    This paper describes a technique for processing field data for a fracture network model which accounts for the observed spatial variability. This has been done by generating a network subregion by subregion where the properties of each subregion are predicted through geostatistics. Once the geometry of a particular realization is specified, flow through the network is studied. We develop the method for a two-dimensional analysis based on data from Fanay-Augeres, a uranium mine in France. We plan to extend the analysis to three dimensions and compare the results with in situ test results. In particular, we have focused on the data collected in a long section of a drift where fractures have been mapped and steady state permeability tests have been performed in 10 boreholes. In order to generate fractures in a statistically heterogeneous region we first divided the region into statistically homogeneous subregions. In each subregion and for each fracture set we must specify the areal fracture density and the orientation, length, and aperture distributions. We divided the fractures into five sets based on tectonic history and observed that for each set, fractures spaced close together tended to have similar orientations. This was built into the simulation. An estimate of the aperture distribution for each set was made by assuming that the hydraulic apertures of the fractures intersecting a well test zone were proportional to the fracture opening observed in the core. Data input to the geostatistical analysis for each set consisted of 16 values of mean length and density of fractures in each 5 m by 2 m section of the drift wall. The results of the simulation are tables of values for mean length and fracture density for each of the five sets. The value of density simulated for each subregion was used directly to determine the number of fractures to be generated of that set in the subregion. The value of mean length was used as the mean of the length distribution in the

  9. Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of Mt. de La Saxe rockslide, northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manconi, A.; Giordan, D.

    2015-02-01

    We investigate the use of landslide failure forecast models by exploiting near-real-time monitoring data. Starting from the inverse velocity theory, we analyze landslide surface displacements on different temporal windows, and apply straightforward statistical methods to obtain confidence intervals on the estimated time of failure. Here we describe the main concepts of our method, and show an example of application to a real emergency scenario, the La Saxe rockslide, Aosta Valley region, northern Italy. Based on the herein presented case study, we identify operational thresholds based on the reliability of the forecast models, in order to support the management of early warning systems in the most critical phases of the landslide emergency.

  10. Fitting a defect non-linear model with or without prior, distinguishing nuclear reaction products as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.

    2017-11-01

    Fitting a parametrized function to data is important for many researchers and scientists. If the model is non-linear and/or defect, it is not trivial to do correctly and to include an adequate uncertainty analysis. This work presents how the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for non-linear generalized least squares fitting can be used with a prior distribution for the parameters and how it can be combined with Gaussian processes to treat model defects. An example, where three peaks in a histogram are to be distinguished, is carefully studied. In particular, the probability r1 for a nuclear reaction to end up in one out of two overlapping peaks is studied. Synthetic data are used to investigate effects of linearizations and other assumptions. For perfect Gaussian peaks, it is seen that the estimated parameters are distributed close to the truth with good covariance estimates. This assumes that the method is applied correctly; for example, prior knowledge should be implemented using a prior distribution and not by assuming that some parameters are perfectly known (if they are not). It is also important to update the data covariance matrix using the fit if the uncertainties depend on the expected value of the data (e.g., for Poisson counting statistics or relative uncertainties). If a model defect is added to the peaks, such that their shape is unknown, a fit which assumes perfect Gaussian peaks becomes unable to reproduce the data, and the results for r1 become biased. It is, however, seen that it is possible to treat the model defect with a Gaussian process with a covariance function tailored for the situation, with hyper-parameters determined by leave-one-out cross validation. The resulting estimates for r1 are virtually unbiased, and the uncertainty estimates agree very well with the underlying uncertainty.

  11. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: A Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-07-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood functions differ in their underlying assumptions and treatment of error sources. We apply the developed method to a snow accumulation and ablation model (National Weather Service SNOW17) and generate parameter ensembles to predict snow water equivalent (SWE). Observational data include precipitation and air temperature forcing along with SWE measurements from 24 sites with diverse hydroclimatic characteristics. A multiple linear regression model is used to construct regionalization relationships between model parameters and site characteristics. Results indicate that model structural uncertainty has the largest influence on SNOW17 parameter behavior. Precipitation uncertainty is the second largest source of uncertainty, showing greater impact at wetter sites. Measurement uncertainty in SWE tends to have little impact on the final model parameters and resulting SWE predictions. Considering all sources of uncertainty, parameters related to air temperature and snowfall fraction exhibit the strongest correlations to site characteristics. Parameters related to the length of the melting period also show high correlation to site characteristics. Finally, model structural uncertainty and precipitation uncertainty dramatically alter parameter regionalization relationships in comparison to cases where only uncertainty in model parameters or output measurements is considered. Our results demonstrate that accurate treatment of forcing, parameter, model structural, and calibration data errors is critical for deriving robust regionalization relationships.

  12. Calculating Production Rate of each Branch of a Multilateral Well Using Multi-Segment Well Model: Field Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed S. Al-Jawad

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Multilateral wells require a sophisticated type of well model to be applied in reservoir simulators to represent them. The model must be able to determine the flow rate of each fluid and the pressure throughout the well. The production rate calculations are very important because they give an indication about some main issues associated with multi-lateral wells such as one branch may produce water or gas before others, no production rate from one branch, and selecting the best location of a new branch for development process easily. This paper states the way to calculate production rate of each branch of a multilateral well-using multi-segment well model. The pressure behaviour of each branch is simulated dependent on knowing its production rate. This model has divided a multi-lateral well into an arbitrary number of segments depending on the required degree of accuracy and run time of the simulator. The model implemented on a field example (multi-lateral well HF-65ML in Halfaya Oil Field/Mishrif formation. The production rate and pressure behaviour of each branch are simulated during the producing interval of the multilateral well. The conclusion is that production rate of the main branch is slightly larger than a lateral branch.

  13. Creating and parameterizing patient-specific deep brain stimulation pathway-activation models using the hyperdirect pathway as an example.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabilar Gunalan

    Full Text Available Deep brain stimulation (DBS is an established clinical therapy and computational models have played an important role in advancing the technology. Patient-specific DBS models are now common tools in both academic and industrial research, as well as clinical software systems. However, the exact methodology for creating patient-specific DBS models can vary substantially and important technical details are often missing from published reports.Provide a detailed description of the assembly workflow and parameterization of a patient-specific DBS pathway-activation model (PAM and predict the response of the hyperdirect pathway to clinical stimulation.Integration of multiple software tools (e.g. COMSOL, MATLAB, FSL, NEURON, Python enables the creation and visualization of a DBS PAM. An example DBS PAM was developed using 7T magnetic resonance imaging data from a single unilaterally implanted patient with Parkinson's disease (PD. This detailed description implements our best computational practices and most elaborate parameterization steps, as defined from over a decade of technical evolution.Pathway recruitment curves and strength-duration relationships highlight the non-linear response of axons to changes in the DBS parameter settings.Parameterization of patient-specific DBS models can be highly detailed and constrained, thereby providing confidence in the simulation predictions, but at the expense of time demanding technical implementation steps. DBS PAMs represent new tools for investigating possible correlations between brain pathway activation patterns and clinical symptom modulation.

  14. Simultaneous model spin-up and parameter identification with the one-shot method in a climate model example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Kratzenstein

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the Oneshot Optimization strategy introduced by Hamdi and Griewank for the applicability and efficiency to identify parameters in models of the earth's climate system. Parameters of a box model of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation are optimized with respect to the fit of model output to data given by another model of intermediate complexity. Since the model is run into a steady state by a pseudo time-stepping, efficient techniques are necessary to avoid extensive recomputations or storing when using gradient-based local optimization algorithms. The Oneshot approach simultaneously updates state, adjoint and parameter values. For the required partial derivatives, the algorithmic/automatic differentiation tool TAF was used. Numerical results are compared to results obtained by the BFGS-quasi-Newton method.

  15. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: a Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, M.; Hogue, T.S.; Franz, K.J.; Margulis, S.A.; Vrugt, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood

  16. Modelling of road traffic for traffic flow optimization of modern regional center as an example of Odessa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Myronenko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available At present sharply there is a problem of traffic management especially in big cities. The increase in the number of vehicles, both personal and public, led to congestion of city roads, many hours of traffic jams, difficulty of movement of pedestrians, increase the number of accidents, etc. Aim: The aim of the study is to evaluate the possibility of using simulation models to solve problems of analysis and optimization of traffic flows. To achieve this goal in a simulation environment the data base of the transport network will be developed. Materials and Methods: The problem of analysis and optimization of traffic flow is considered by the example of the city of Odessa (Ukraine, the results and recommendations can be easily adapted for other cities of Ukraine, and for the cities of most countries of the former socialist bloc. Features of transport systems make it impossible to build an adequate analytical model to explore options for the management of the system and its characteristic in different conditions. At the same time simulation modelling as a method to study such objects is a promising for the solution to this problem. As a simulation environment an OmniTRANS package as a universal tool for modeling of discrete, continuous and hybrid systems. Results: With OmniTRANS programs the model of traffic in Odessa was derived and the intensity of the traffic flow. B first approximation the transport network of the central district of the city was considered and built; without calibration and simulation it was developed a database of elements of the transport network and shown how it can be used to solve problems of analysis and optimization of traffic flows. Models constructed from elements of created database, allows you to change the level of detail of the simulated objects and phenomena, thereby obtaining models as macro and micro level.

  17. Core–periphery models for graphs based on their δ-hyperbolicity: An example using biological networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hend Alrasheed

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Hyperbolicity is a global property of graphs that measures how close their structures are to trees in terms of their distances. It embeds multiple properties that facilitate solving several problems that found to be hard in the general graph form. In this paper, we investigate the hyperbolicity of graphs not only by considering Gromov’s notion of δ-hyperbolicity but also by analyzing its relationship to other graph’s parameters. This new perspective allows us to classify graphs with respect to their hyperbolicity and to show that many biological networks are hyperbolic. Then we introduce the eccentricity-based bending property which we exploit to identify the core vertices of a graph by proposing two models: the maximum-peak model and the minimum cover set model. In this extended version of the paper, we include some new theorems, as well as proofs of the theorems proposed in the conference paper. Also, we present the algorithms we used for each of the proposed core identification models, and we provide more analysis, explanations, and examples.

  18. On the exciton model for ion-beam damage: The example of TiO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivera, A. [Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid, (CNM-CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, E-28760 Tres Cantos (Spain); Crespillo, M.L. [Centro de Microanalisis de Materiales (CMAM), Universidad Autonoma de Madrid (UAM), Cantoblanco, E-28049 Madrid (Spain); Olivares, J. [Centro de Microanalisis de Materiales (CMAM), Universidad Autonoma de Madrid (UAM), Cantoblanco, E-28049 Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Optica, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), C/Serrano 121, E-28006 Madrid (Spain); Sanz, R. [Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales de Madrid (ICMM-CSIC), Cantoblanco, E-28049 Madrid (Spain); Jensen, J. [Thin Film Physics Division, Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology - IFM, Linkoeping University, SE 581 83, Linkoeping (Sweden); Agullo-Lopez, F., E-mail: fal@uam.e [Centro de Microanalisis de Materiales (CMAM), Universidad Autonoma de Madrid (UAM), Cantoblanco, E-28049 Madrid (Spain); Departamento de Fisica de Materiales, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid (UAM), Cantoblanco, E-28049 Madrid (Spain)

    2010-10-01

    The non-radiative exciton decay model recently developed to account for swift-ion-beam damage to LiNbO{sub 3} is, here, discussed within a general physical perspective, taking previous work on alkali halides as a reference. Some general rules for the validity of excitonic models have been put forward, allowing one to predict the irradiation behaviour of other materials. As a new example of application, some preliminary data on the generation and growth of uniform amorphous layers induced by irradiation with Br at 13 MeV and 25 MeV have been performed on rutile (TiO{sub 2}). In addition sub-threshold irradiations with Br ions at 9 MeV have been carried out. Defects generation is observed as a result. This effect is explained with the exciton model. Experiments are in the electronic excitation regime and use moderate fluences in the range of 6 x 10{sup 12} to 1.5 x 10{sup 14} cm{sup -2}. The results show similar features to those found for LiNbO{sub 3} and are, in principle, consistent with a non-radiative exciton decay model.

  19. Modelling of pathologies of the nervous system by the example of computational and electronic models of elementary nervous systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shumilov, V. N.; Syryamkin, V. I.; Syryamkin, M. V.

    2015-01-01

    The paper puts forward principles of action of devices operating similarly to the nervous system and the brain of biological systems. We propose an alternative method of studying diseases of the nervous system, which may significantly influence prevention, medical treatment, or at least retardation of development of these diseases. This alternative is to use computational and electronic models of the nervous system. Within this approach, we represent the brain in the form of a huge electrical circuit composed of active units, namely, neuron-like units and connections between them. As a result, we created computational and electronic models of elementary nervous systems, which are based on the principles of functioning of biological nervous systems that we have put forward. Our models demonstrate reactions to external stimuli and their change similarly to the behavior of simplest biological organisms. The models possess the ability of self-training and retraining in real time without human intervention and switching operation/training modes. In our models, training and memorization take place constantly under the influence of stimuli on the organism. Training is without any interruption and switching operation modes. Training and formation of new reflexes occur by means of formation of new connections between excited neurons, between which formation of connections is physically possible. Connections are formed without external influence. They are formed under the influence of local causes. Connections are formed between outputs and inputs of two neurons, when the difference between output and input potentials of excited neurons exceeds a value sufficient to form a new connection. On these grounds, we suggest that the proposed principles truly reflect mechanisms of functioning of biological nervous systems and the brain. In order to confirm the correspondence of the proposed principles to biological nature, we carry out experiments for the study of processes of

  20. Modelling of pathologies of the nervous system by the example of computational and electronic models of elementary nervous systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shumilov, V. N., E-mail: vnshumilov@rambler.ru; Syryamkin, V. I., E-mail: maximus70sir@gmail.com; Syryamkin, M. V., E-mail: maximus70sir@gmail.com [National Research Tomsk State University, 634050, Tomsk, Lenin Avenue, 36 (Russian Federation)

    2015-11-17

    The paper puts forward principles of action of devices operating similarly to the nervous system and the brain of biological systems. We propose an alternative method of studying diseases of the nervous system, which may significantly influence prevention, medical treatment, or at least retardation of development of these diseases. This alternative is to use computational and electronic models of the nervous system. Within this approach, we represent the brain in the form of a huge electrical circuit composed of active units, namely, neuron-like units and connections between them. As a result, we created computational and electronic models of elementary nervous systems, which are based on the principles of functioning of biological nervous systems that we have put forward. Our models demonstrate reactions to external stimuli and their change similarly to the behavior of simplest biological organisms. The models possess the ability of self-training and retraining in real time without human intervention and switching operation/training modes. In our models, training and memorization take place constantly under the influence of stimuli on the organism. Training is without any interruption and switching operation modes. Training and formation of new reflexes occur by means of formation of new connections between excited neurons, between which formation of connections is physically possible. Connections are formed without external influence. They are formed under the influence of local causes. Connections are formed between outputs and inputs of two neurons, when the difference between output and input potentials of excited neurons exceeds a value sufficient to form a new connection. On these grounds, we suggest that the proposed principles truly reflect mechanisms of functioning of biological nervous systems and the brain. In order to confirm the correspondence of the proposed principles to biological nature, we carry out experiments for the study of processes of

  1. UNSAT-H Version 3.0: Unsaturated Soil Water and Heat Flow Model Theory, User Manual, and Examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fayer, M.J.

    2000-01-01

    The UNSAT-H model was developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to assess the water dynamics of arid sites and, in particular, estimate recharge fluxes for scenarios pertinent to waste disposal facilities. During the last 4 years, the UNSAT-H model received support from the Immobilized Waste Program (IWP) of the Hanford Site's River Protection Project. This program is designing and assessing the performance of on-site disposal facilities to receive radioactive wastes that are currently stored in single- and double-shell tanks at the Hanford Site (LMHC 1999). The IWP is interested in estimates of recharge rates for current conditions and long-term scenarios involving the vadose zone disposal of tank wastes. Simulation modeling with UNSAT-H is one of the methods being used to provide those estimates (e.g., Rockhold et al. 1995; Fayer et al. 1999). To achieve the above goals for assessing water dynamics and estimating recharge rates, the UNSAT-H model addresses soil water infiltration, redistribution, evaporation, plant transpiration, deep drainage, and soil heat flow as one-dimensional processes. The UNSAT-H model simulates liquid water flow using Richards' equation (Richards 1931), water vapor diffusion using Fick's law, and sensible heat flow using the Fourier equation. This report documents UNSAT-H .Version 3.0. The report includes the bases for the conceptual model and its numerical implementation, benchmark test cases, example simulations involving layered soils and plants, and the code manual. Version 3.0 is an, enhanced-capability update of UNSAT-H Version 2.0 (Fayer and Jones 1990). New features include hysteresis, an iterative solution of head and temperature, an energy balance check, the modified Picard solution technique, additional hydraulic functions, multiple-year simulation capability, and general enhancements

  2. Nanotechnology convergence and modeling paradigm of sustainable energy system using polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell as a benchmark example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Pil Seung; So, Dae Sup; Biegler, Lorenz T.; Jhon, Myung S., E-mail: mj3a@andrew.cmu.edu [Carnegie Mellon University, Department of Chemical Engineering (United States)

    2012-08-15

    Developments in nanotechnology have led to innovative progress and converging technologies in engineering and science. These demand novel methodologies that enable efficient communications from the nanoscale all the way to decision-making criteria for actual production systems. In this paper, we discuss the convergence of nanotechnology and novel multi-scale modeling paradigms by using the fuel cell system as a benchmark example. This approach includes complex multi-phenomena at different time and length scales along with the introduction of an optimization framework for application-driven nanotechnology research trends. The modeling paradigm introduced here covers the novel holistic integration from atomistic/molecular phenomena to meso/continuum scales. System optimization is also discussed with respect to the reduced order parameters for a coarse-graining procedure in multi-scale model integration as well as system design. The development of a hierarchical multi-scale paradigm consolidates the theoretical analysis and enables large-scale decision-making of process level design, based on first-principles, and therefore promotes the convergence of nanotechnology to sustainable energy technologies.

  3. Nanotechnology convergence and modeling paradigm of sustainable energy system using polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell as a benchmark example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Pil Seung; So, Dae Sup; Biegler, Lorenz T.; Jhon, Myung S.

    2012-08-01

    Developments in nanotechnology have led to innovative progress and converging technologies in engineering and science. These demand novel methodologies that enable efficient communications from the nanoscale all the way to decision-making criteria for actual production systems. In this paper, we discuss the convergence of nanotechnology and novel multi-scale modeling paradigms by using the fuel cell system as a benchmark example. This approach includes complex multi-phenomena at different time and length scales along with the introduction of an optimization framework for application-driven nanotechnology research trends. The modeling paradigm introduced here covers the novel holistic integration from atomistic/molecular phenomena to meso/continuum scales. System optimization is also discussed with respect to the reduced order parameters for a coarse-graining procedure in multi-scale model integration as well as system design. The development of a hierarchical multi-scale paradigm consolidates the theoretical analysis and enables large-scale decision-making of process level design, based on first-principles, and therefore promotes the convergence of nanotechnology to sustainable energy technologies.

  4. Nanotechnology convergence and modeling paradigm of sustainable energy system using polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell as a benchmark example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Pil Seung; So, Dae Sup; Biegler, Lorenz T.; Jhon, Myung S.

    2012-01-01

    Developments in nanotechnology have led to innovative progress and converging technologies in engineering and science. These demand novel methodologies that enable efficient communications from the nanoscale all the way to decision-making criteria for actual production systems. In this paper, we discuss the convergence of nanotechnology and novel multi-scale modeling paradigms by using the fuel cell system as a benchmark example. This approach includes complex multi-phenomena at different time and length scales along with the introduction of an optimization framework for application-driven nanotechnology research trends. The modeling paradigm introduced here covers the novel holistic integration from atomistic/molecular phenomena to meso/continuum scales. System optimization is also discussed with respect to the reduced order parameters for a coarse-graining procedure in multi-scale model integration as well as system design. The development of a hierarchical multi-scale paradigm consolidates the theoretical analysis and enables large-scale decision-making of process level design, based on first-principles, and therefore promotes the convergence of nanotechnology to sustainable energy technologies.

  5. Outcome Inelasticity and Outcome Variability in Behaviour-Incidence Models: An Example from an SEIR Infection on a Dynamic Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryce Morsky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Behavior-incidence models have been used to model phenomena such as free-riding vaccinating behavior, where nonvaccinators free ride on herd immunity generated by vaccinators. Here, we develop and analyze a simulation model of voluntary ring vaccination on an evolving social contact network. Individuals make vaccination decisions by examining their expected payoffs, which are influenced by the infection status of their neighbors. We find that stochasticity can make outcomes extremely variable (near critical thresholds and thus unpredictable: some stochastic realizations result in rapid control through ring vaccination while others result in widespread transmission. We also explore the phenomenon of outcome inelasticity, wherein behavioral responses result in certain outcome measures remaining relatively unchanged. Finally, we explore examples where ineffective or risky vaccines are more widely adopted than safe, effective vaccines. This occurs when such a vaccine is unattractive to a sufficient number of contacts of an index case to cause failure of ring vaccination. As a result, the infection percolates through the entire network, causing the final epidemic size and vaccine coverage to be higher than would otherwise occur. Effects such as extreme outcome variability and outcome inelasticity have implications for vaccination policies that depend on individual choice for their success and predictability.

  6. 3D geodynamic models for the development of opposing continental subduction zones: The Hindu Kush-Pamir example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Jie; Gerya, Taras; Thielmann, Marcel; Webb, A. Alexander G.; Kufner, Sofia-Katerina; Yin, An

    2017-12-01

    The development of opposing continental subduction zones remains scantly explored in three dimensions. The Hindu Kush-Pamir orogenic system at the western end of the Himalayan orogen provides a rare example of continental collision linked to two opposing intra-continental subduction zones. The subducted plates feature a peculiar 3D geometry consisting of two distinct lithospheric fragments with different polarities, subduction angles and slab-curvatures beneath the Hindu Kush and Pamir, respectively. Using 3D geodynamic modeling, we simulate possible development of two opposing continental subduction zones to understand the dynamic evolution of the Hindu Kush-Pamir orogenic system. Our geodynamic model reproduces the major tectonic elements observed: (1) the deeper subduction depth, the steeper dip angle and the southward offset of the Hindu Kush subduction zone relative to the Pamir naturally occur if convergence direction of the subducting Indian plate and dip-direction of the Hindu Kush subduction zone match. (2) The formation of the highly asymmetrically curved Pamir region and the south-dipping subduction is promoted by the initial geometry of the indenting Indian lithosphere together with the existence of a major strike-slip fault on the eastern margin of the Pamir region. (3) Subduction of only the lower continental crust during continental collision can occur if the coupling between upper and lower crusts is weak enough to allow a separation of these two components, and that (4) the subduction of mainly lower crust then facilitates that conditions for intermediate-depth seismicity can be reached. (5) The secondary tectonic features modeled here such as strike-slip-fault growth, north-northwest striking extension zone, and lateral flow of the thickened ductile upper crust are comparable to the current tectonics of the region. (6) Model results are further compared to the potentially similar orogenic system, i.e., the Alpine orogen, in terms of the curved

  7. Structural equation models using partial least squares: an example of the application of SmartPLS® in accounting research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Carlos Hipólito Bernardes do Nascimento

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In view of the Accounting academy’s increasing in the investigation of latent phenomena, researchers have used robust multivariate techniques. Although Structural Equation Models are frequently used in the international literature, however, the Accounting academy has made little use of the variant based on Partial Least Squares (PLS-SEM, mostly due to lack of knowledge on the applicability and benefits of its use for Accounting research. Even if the PLS-SEM approach is regularly used in surveys, this method is appropriate to model complex relations with multiple relationships of dependence and independence between latent variables. In that sense, it is very useful for application in experiments and file data. In that sense, a literature review is presented of Accounting studies that used the PLS-SEM technique. Next, as no specific publications were observed that exemplified the application of the technique in Accounting, a PLS-SEM application is developed to encourage exploratory research by means of the software SmartPLS®, being particularly useful to graduate students. Therefore, the main contribution of this article is methodological, given its objective to clearly identify the guidelines for the appropriate use of PLS. By presenting an example of how to conduct an exploratory research using PLS-SEM, the intention is to contribute to researchers’ enhanced understanding of how to use and report on the technique in their research.

  8. From an animal model to human patients: An example of a translational study on obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilam, David

    2017-05-01

    The application of similar analyses enables a direct projection from translational research in animals to human studies. Following is an example of how the methodology of a specific animal model of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) was applied to study human patients. Specifically, the quinpirole rat model for OCD was based on analyzing the trajectories of travel among different locales, and scoring the set of acts performed at each locale. Applying this analytic approach in human patients unveiled various aspects of OCD, such as the repetition and addition of acts, incompleteness, and the link between behavior and specific locations. It is also illustrated how the same analytical approach could be applicable to studying other mental disorders. Finally, it is suggested that the development of OCD could be explained by the four-phase sequence of Repetition, Addition, Condensation, and Elimination, as outlined in the study of ontogeny and phylogeny and applied to normal development of behavior. In OCD, this sequence is curtailed, resulting in the abundant repetition and addition of acts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The standard model and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1989-05-01

    In these lectures, my aim is to present a status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows. I survey the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also commented on. In addition, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple example which employs that technique. I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, extra Z' bosons, and compositeness are discussed. An overview of the physics of tau decays is also included. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin 2 θW from experiment. The results presented there are based on a global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, implications for grand unified theories (GUTS), extra Z' gauge bosons, and atomic parity violation. The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. Finally, I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses, mixings, and electromagnetic moments. 32 refs., 3 figs., 5 tabs

  10. IMPROVING THE FOREIGN POLICY OF RUSSIA ON THE BASIS OF THE GRAVITY MODELING (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE BRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Degtereva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article investigates the features of construction of gravity models, the results of the use of which will allow to identify eff ective ways of Russian foreign policy improvements.Purpose of the article: multigravitatsion development model of Russia's foreign trade, which will identify forward the development of export-import relations in the framework of inter-regional trade area of the Russian Federation, including integration associations such as the EU, BRICS, CIS.Methodology: methodological basis of the study make up scientific methods of cognition, namely, methods of theoretical generalization and comparison; method of integrated and structural analysis.Results: During the studied analyzed Russia's foreign trade turnover, the results of which revealed that for the country's economic development is important as a variety of trade fl ows and capital fl ows, which in turn updates the problem of formation and development of the national foreign trade potential, finding the optimal proportion of commodity structure diversification and the introduction of eff ective mechanisms of regulation of export-import operations. The solution of the problem determined the conduct of the study articles Russian contemporary maps of foreign cooperation in the conditions of existing sanctions and embargoes, as well as the identification of targeted country markets for Russia's non-oil exports with a separate allocation problem area that emerged as a result of external challenges of political and economic nature faced by Russia because of the military confl ict in Ukraine. Special attention is paid to the distribution of Russian imports by partner countries.Significance: the example of EU integration associations of the CIS and the BRICS, which make up multiregional commercial space of Russia, multigravitatsionnaya model is constructed in order to assess the impact of Russia's cooperation with the EU member countries, CIS countries and the BRICS, as well as

  11. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  12. Analysis of the possibility of applying a condition-based maintenance model on an example of tank weapons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor J. Epler

    2013-12-01

    maintenance, -      preventive maintenance, -      combined maintenance.   Some developed condition-based maintenance models Condition-based maintenance models can be classified in two groups as: -      models of technical change in the current situation (with a use of condition inspection, -      models of technical change in the situation (with a use of condition diagnostics.   Some developed condition-based maintenance models The  models of condition-based maintenance  include: -      condition-based maintenance model with parameters control, -      condition-based maintenance model with the control of reliability levels.   Condition-based maintenance model with parameters control Condition-based maintenance model with parameters control can be with: -      periodic diagnostic controls (“the constant date”, -      economic setting of the intervals of diagnostic controls, -      continous diagnostic controls.   Condition-based maintenance model with the reliability level control The essence of the condition-based maintenance model with the control of reliability levels is to use resources between two repairs without limitation, with execution of maintenance activities necessary to fix the failure occurred, while the actual reliability level is within the boundaries of the set (permissible norms. If deviations from these norms occur,  the causes of deviations are analysed and measures taken to increase the reliability level of individual components and the system.   The possibilities of the application of the condition-based maintenance model on the example of tank weapons The application of the condition-based maintenance model with parameters control is hard to realize in tank weapons, except for a tank cannon barrel. In this case,  the intensity of the stress in the material on the critical barrel sections can be measured during operation, using electrical extensiometers. Voltage intensity can be used to determine

  13. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Aline Araújo; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Griep, Rosane Härter; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Chor, Dora

    2017-08-17

    To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income. The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  14. Geodynamics of divergent double subduction: 3-D numerical modelling of a Cenozoic example in the Molucca Sea region, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qingwen; Guo, Feng

    2017-04-01

    Subduction of oceanic plates is the most important process for exchange of mass and energy between Earth's surface and interior. Occurrence of subduction on both sides of a single oceanic plate (i.e., divergent double subduction, DDS) can be geophysically observed or inferred from geological records. DDS may play an important role in plate tectonics, for instance, it potentially serves as an effective mechanism that enhances closure of an oceanic basin and accretion of magmatic arcs onto continental margins. The Molucca Sea subduction zone in eastern Indonesia features collision of magmatic arcs and occurrence of intense earthquakes in response to ongoing subduction of the Molucca Sea plate on its eastern and western sides, thus known as a Cenozoic example of DDS and provides opportunity for further investigations. Geophysical observations reveal an inverted U-shape of the subducting Molucca Sea plate as a consequence of its unusual way of subduction. The geodynamics behind this unique form of subduction was still poorly constrained and lack sufficient discussions. In this study, we carry out 3-D numerical modelling to investigate how DDS occurs. Results show that subduction of an oceanic plate can drive convergence of overriding plates and arc-arc collision; morphology of the subducting plate and convergence of the overriding plates can be controlled by order of subduction initiation on both sides, or depends on if the overriding plates are mobile. Our results suggest that: (1) the earlier subduction initiation on the western Sangihe side with respect to the eastern Halmahera side may have predominantly led to formation of the present-day asymmetrical shape of the subducting Molucca Sea plate; (2) the relative immobility of the western overriding Eurasian plate promoted westward migration of the Halmahera arc; (3) bending of the arcs was a consequence of the toroidal mantle flow induced by rollback of slabs. We also highlight the importance of trench

  15. Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilli R

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy. The Carbon Budget Model (CBM-CFS3 developed by the Canadian Forest Service was applied to data collected by the last Italian National Forest Inventory (INFC for the Trento Province (NE, Italy. CBM was modified and adapted to the different management types (i.e., even-aged high forests, uneven-aged high forests and coppices and silvicultural systems (including clear cuts, single tree selection systems and thinning applied in this province. The aim of this study was to provide an example of down-scaling of this model from a national to a regional scale, providing (i an historical analysis, from 1995 to 2011, and (ii a projection, from 2012 to 2020, of the forest biomass and the carbon stock evolution. The analysis was based on the harvest rate reported by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (from 1995 to 2011, corrected according to the last INFC data and distinguished between timber and fuel woods and between conifers and broadleaves. Since 2012, we applied a constant harvest rate, equal to about 1300 Mm3 yr-1, estimated from the average harvest rate for the period 2006-2011. Model results were consistent with similar data reported in the literature. The average biomass C stock was 90 Mg C ha-1 and the biomass C stock change was 0.97 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 and 0.87 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, for the period 1995 -2011 and 2012-2020, respectively. The C stock cumulated by the timber products since 1995 was 96 Gg C yr-1, i.e., about 28% of the average annual C stock change of the forests, equal to 345 Gg C yr-1. CBM also provided estimates on the evolution of the age class distribution of the even-aged forests and on the C stock of the DOM forest pools (litter, dead wood and soil. This study demonstrates the utility of CBM to provide estimates at a regional or local scale, using not only the data provided by the forest

  16. Study on the application of 3D modeling based on UAV photography in urban planning — Taking Yi Jiequ area in Du Jiangyan as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bingshuang; Zhang, Lingqing

    2017-08-01

    This paper proposed a new technique combining UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) with 3D (three-dimension) modeling to integrate and analyze a large amount of information and to guide urban planning. This paper expounded the status and methods of UAV applying to 3D modeling, verified the practical values of this technique and summarized the future development trend by taking Yi Jiequ area in Du Jiangyan as an example.

  17. [Modeling the information system of a research program using the MERISE method: the example of an ecopathological survey on dairy cows].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérochon, L; Lescourret, F

    1994-01-01

    We present the MERISE method for the design of an information system, detailing data modelling. An exploratory research program on peri-partum pathology in intensive dairy herds is used as an example. The information system is divided into thematic subsystems called 'fields', which are represented by a global conceptual scheme. For each field, a detailed conceptual model is then determined through precise modelling guidelines. This division facilitates the validation of models by the partners of the project, and makes it possible to re-use the fields in other research programs.

  18. Potential Geophysical Field Transformations and Combined 3D Modelling for Estimation the Seismic Site Effects on Example of Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eppelbaum, Lev; Meirova, Tatiana

    2015-04-01

    , EGU2014-2424, Vienna, Austria, 1-5. Eppelbaum, L.V. and Katz, Y.I., 2014b. First Maps of Mesozoic and Cenozoic Structural-Sedimentation Floors of the Easternmost Mediterranean and their Relationship with the Deep Geophysical-Geological Zonation. Proceed. of the 19th Intern. Congress of Sedimentologists, Geneva, Switzerland, 1-3. Eppelbaum, L.V. and Katz, Yu.I., 2015a. Newly Developed Paleomagnetic Map of the Easternmost Mediterranean Unmasks Geodynamic History of this Region. Central European Jour. of Geosciences, 6, No. 4 (in Press). Eppelbaum, L.V. and Katz, Yu.I., 2015b. Application of Integrated Geological-Geophysical Analysis for Development of Paleomagnetic Maps of the Easternmost Mediterranean. In: (Eppelbaum L., Ed.), New Developments in Paleomagnetism Research, Nova Publisher, NY (in Press). Eppelbaum, L.V. and Khesin, B.E., 2004. Advanced 3-D modelling of gravity field unmasks reserves of a pyrite-polymetallic deposit: A case study from the Greater Caucasus. First Break, 22, No. 11, 53-56. Eppelbaum, L.V., Nikolaev, A.V. and Katz, Y.I., 2014. Space location of the Kiama paleomagnetic hyperzone of inverse polarity in the crust of the eastern Mediterranean. Doklady Earth Sciences (Springer), 457, No. 6, 710-714. Haase, J.S., Park, C.H., Nowack, R.L. and Hill, J.R., 2010. Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience, 16, No. 4, 369-388. Hough, S.E., Borcherdt, R. D., Friberg, P. A., Busby, R., Field, E. and Jacob, K. N., 1990. The role of sediment-induced amplification in the collapse of the Nimitz freeway. Nature, 344, 853-855. Khesin, B.E. Alexeyev, V.V. and Eppelbaum, L.V., 1996. Interpretation of Geophysical Fields in Complicated Environments. Kluwer Academic Publ., Ser.: Advanced Appr. in Geophysics, Dordrecht - London - Boston. Klokočník, J., Kostelecký, J., Eppelbaum, L. and Bezděk, A., 2014. Gravity Disturbances, the Marussi Tensor, Invariants and

  19. On the identifiability and the identification of linear models: examples of application within the frame of the theory of transformation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, Jacques

    1984-01-01

    In its first part, this research thesis which is the result of studies of the effects of radiations on molecular structures, addresses the search for guiding principles for the elaboration of a model with the best as possible justification (model justification is based on five criteria: rational consistency, refutability, adjustment to experimental data, justification of all model characteristics, uniqueness), recalls the main principles of the theory of transformation systems, and proposes a procedure of model search. The second part addresses mathematical methods. The third part addresses the problem of identifiability of parameters and the fourth part reports examples of model development: study of the effects of gamma irradiation on unicellular algae, study of the effects of radiations on the stem cells of rat gonads. This last part also reports the elaboration of pharmacokinetic model with 21 parameters, and the study of two models of nuclear medicine (assessment of the actual lung volume of hypoxemic patients, study of the methionine brain metabolism)

  20. A systematic approach for re-assembly of crop models: An example to simulate pea growth from wheat growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adam, M.Y.O.; Wery, J.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Ewert, F.; Corbeels, M.; Keulen, van H.

    2013-01-01

    The process of crop modelling to develop operational software requires different skills, from conceptualization of the biophysical system to computer programming, involving three main scientific disciplines: agronomy, mathematics, and software engineering. Model building implies transforming a

  1. A comprehensive action determination model - Toward a broader understanding of ecological behaviour using the example of travel mode choice

    OpenAIRE

    Klöckner, Christian; Blöbaum, Anke

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines a first version of a Comprehensive Action Determination Model (CADM) of ecological behaviour that incorporates intentional, normative, situational, and habitual influences on environmentally friendly behaviour. The main assumptions of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), the norm-activation model (NAM), the theoretical concept of habit and the ipsative theory of behaviour were integrated into a comprehensive model. The model was tested using a structural equation modelli...

  2. Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making : An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

    Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease

  3. Can dispersion modeling of air pollution be improved by land-use regression? : An example from Stockholm, Sweden

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korek, Michal; Johansson, Christer; Svensson, Nina; Lind, Tomas; Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Pershagen, Göran; Bellander, Tom

    2017-01-01

    Both dispersion modeling (DM) and land-use regression modeling (LUR) are often used for assessment of long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiological studies, but seldom in combination. We developed a hybrid DM-LUR model using 93 biweekly observations of NOx at 31 sites in greater Stockholm

  4. Effect of Bayesian Student Modeling on Academic Achievement in Foreign Language Teaching (University Level English Preparatory School Example)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslan, Burak Galip; Öztürk, Özlem; Inceoglu, Mustafa Murat

    2014-01-01

    Considering the increasing importance of adaptive approaches in CALL systems, this study implemented a machine learning based student modeling middleware with Bayesian networks. The profiling approach of the student modeling system is based on Felder and Silverman's Learning Styles Model and Felder and Soloman's Index of Learning Styles…

  5. Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making: An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

    2016-01-01

    Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease progression can often be obtained by assuming that the future state transitions do not depend only on the present state (Markov assumption) but also on the past through time since entry in the present state. Despite that these so-called semi-Markov models are still relatively straightforward to specify and implement, they are not yet routinely applied in health economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. To facilitate a better understanding of this type of model among applied health economic analysts, the first part of this article provides a detailed discussion of what the semi-Markov model entails and how such models can be specified in an intuitive way by adopting an approach called vertical modeling. In the second part of the article, we use this approach to construct a semi-Markov model for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of 3 disease management programs for heart failure. Compared with a standard Markov model with the same disease states, our proposed semi-Markov model fitted the observed data much better. When subsequently extrapolating beyond the clinical trial period, these relatively large differences in goodness-of-fit translated into almost a doubling in mean total cost and a 60-d decrease in mean survival time when using the Markov model instead of the semi-Markov model. For the disease process considered in our case study, the semi-Markov model thus provided a sensible balance between model parsimoniousness and computational complexity. © The Author(s) 2015.

  6. Comparison of Computational-Model and Experimental-Example Trained Neural Networks for Processing Speckled Fringe Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, A. J.; Fite, E. B.; Thorp, S. A.; Mehmed, O.

    1998-01-01

    The responses of artificial neural networks to experimental and model-generated inputs are compared for detection of damage in twisted fan blades using electronic holography. The training-set inputs, for this work, are experimentally generated characteristic patterns of the vibrating blades. The outputs are damage-flag indicators or second derivatives of the sensitivity-vector-projected displacement vectors from a finite element model. Artificial neural networks have been trained in the past with computational-model-generated training sets. This approach avoids the difficult inverse calculations traditionally used to compare interference fringes with the models. But the high modeling standards are hard to achieve, even with fan-blade finite-element models.

  7. Can dispersion modeling of air pollution be improved by land-use regression? An example from Stockholm, Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korek, Michal; Johansson, Christer; Svensson, Nina; Lind, Tomas; Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Pershagen, Göran; Bellander, Tom

    2017-11-01

    Both dispersion modeling (DM) and land-use regression modeling (LUR) are often used for assessment of long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiological studies, but seldom in combination. We developed a hybrid DM-LUR model using 93 biweekly observations of NO x at 31 sites in greater Stockholm (Sweden). The DM was based on spatially resolved topographic, physiographic and emission data, and hourly meteorological data from a diagnostic wind model. Other data were from land use, meteorology and routine monitoring of NO x . We built a linear regression model for NO x , using a stepwise forward selection of covariates. The resulting model predicted observed NO x (R 2 =0.89) better than the DM without covariates (R 2 =0.68, P-interaction pollutant concentrations based on DM, by incorporating further spatial characteristics of the immediate surroundings, possibly accounting for imperfections in the emission data.

  8. Discussion on geochemical characteristics, mechanism and prospecting model of gluey type sandstone uranium mineralization--taking Redwell uranium deposit as an example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jinping

    1998-01-01

    Redwell uranium deposit hosted in the red clastic rock formation, is a typical example of gluey type uranium mineralization, which has not been reported so far in China. Based on the study of geochemical characteristics of Redwell deposit, the author discusses the genetic mechanism of this type deposits, and proposes the prospecting model of 4 in 1 of red bed-fault-oil gas-uranium source

  9. Modelling and predicting of commercial property attendance basing on the estimation of its attraction for consumers (by example of shopping malls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varvara Sergeyevna Spirina

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to research and elaborate an economicmathematical model of predicting of commercial property attendance by the example of shopping malls based on the estimation of its attraction for consumers. Methods the methodological and theoretical basis for the work was composed of the rules and techniques of elaborating the qualimetry and matrix mechanisms of complex estimation necessary for the estimation and aggregation of factors influencing the choice of a consumersrsquo group among many alternative property venues. Results two mechanisms are elaborated for the complex estimation of commercial property which is necessary to evaluate their attraction for consumers and to predict attendance. By the example of two large shopping malls in Perm Russia it is shown that using both mechanisms in the economicmathematical model of commercial property attendance increases the accuracy of its predictions compared to the traditional Huff model. The reliability of the results is confirmed by the coincidence of the results of calculation and the actual poll data on the shopping malls attendance. Scientific novelty a multifactor model of commercial property attraction for consumers was elaborated by the example of shopping malls parameters of complex estimation mechanisms are defined namely eight parameters influencing the choice of a shopping mall by consumers. The model differs from the traditional Huff model by the number of factors influencing the choice of a shopping mall by consumers and by the higher accuracy of predicting its attendance. Practical significance the economicmathematical models able to predict commercial property attendance can be used for efficient planning of measures to attract consumers to preserve and develop competitive advantages of commercial property. nbsp

  10. Knowledge, transparency, and refutability in groundwater models, an example from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Belcher, Wayne; Sweetkind, Donald; Tiedeman, Claire; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2013-01-01

    This work demonstrates how available knowledge can be used to build more transparent and refutable computer models of groundwater systems. The Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, which surrounds a proposed site for a high level nuclear waste repository of the United States of America, and the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), where nuclear weapons were tested, is used to explore model adequacy, identify parameters important to (and informed by) observations, and identify existing old and potential new observations important to predictions. Model development is pursued using a set of fundamental questions addressed with carefully designed metrics. Critical methods include using a hydrogeologic model, managing model nonlinearity by designing models that are robust while maintaining realism, using error-based weighting to combine disparate types of data, and identifying important and unimportant parameters and observations and optimizing parameter values with computationally frugal schemes. The frugal schemes employed in this study require relatively few (10–1000 s), parallelizable model runs. This is beneficial because models able to approximate the complex site geology defensibly tend to have high computational cost. The issue of model defensibility is particularly important given the contentious political issues involved.

  11. Knowledge, transparency, and refutability in groundwater models, an example from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Belcher, Wayne R.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Tiedeman, Claire R.; Kavetski, Dmitri

    This work demonstrates how available knowledge can be used to build more transparent and refutable computer models of groundwater systems. The Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, which surrounds a proposed site for a high level nuclear waste repository of the United States of America, and the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), where nuclear weapons were tested, is used to explore model adequacy, identify parameters important to (and informed by) observations, and identify existing old and potential new observations important to predictions. Model development is pursued using a set of fundamental questions addressed with carefully designed metrics. Critical methods include using a hydrogeologic model, managing model nonlinearity by designing models that are robust while maintaining realism, using error-based weighting to combine disparate types of data, and identifying important and unimportant parameters and observations and optimizing parameter values with computationally frugal schemes. The frugal schemes employed in this study require relatively few (10-1000 s), parallelizable model runs. This is beneficial because models able to approximate the complex site geology defensibly tend to have high computational cost. The issue of model defensibility is particularly important given the contentious political issues involved.

  12. A CFBPN Artificial Neural Network Model for Educational Qualitative Data Analyses: Example of Students' Attitudes Based on Kellerts' Typologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yorek, Nurettin; Ugulu, Ilker

    2015-01-01

    In this study, artificial neural networks are suggested as a model that can be "trained" to yield qualitative results out of a huge amount of categorical data. It can be said that this is a new approach applied in educational qualitative data analysis. In this direction, a cascade-forward back-propagation neural network (CFBPN) model was…

  13. Introducing Geoscience Students to Numerical Modeling of Volcanic Hazards: The example of Tephra2 on VHub.org

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah M. Courtland

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The Tephra2 numerical model for tephra fallout from explosive volcanic eruptions is specifically designed to enable students to probe ideas in model literacy, including code validation and verification, the role of simplifying assumptions, and the concepts of uncertainty and forecasting. This numerical model is implemented on the VHub.org website, a venture in cyberinfrastructure that brings together volcanological models and educational materials. The VHub.org resource provides students with the ability to explore and execute sophisticated numerical models like Tephra2. We present a strategy for using this model to introduce university students to key concepts in the use and evaluation of Tephra2 for probabilistic forecasting of volcanic hazards. Through this critical examination students are encouraged to develop a deeper understanding of the applicability and limitations of hazard models. Although the model and applications are intended for use in both introductory and advanced geoscience courses, they could easily be adapted to work in other disciplines, such as astronomy, physics, computational methods, data analysis, or computer science.

  14. Using ComBase Predictor and Pathogen Modeling Program as support tools in outbreak investigation: an example from Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Cleide; Hansen, Tina Beck; Andersen, Jens Kirk

    2009-01-01

    of salt to the batter. A deterministic model was constructed in Microsoft Excel using information on the production of the implicated sausage. This model predicted the level of Y. enterocolitica to increase 2.3, 4.2 and 7.8 log-units during fermentation, drying and storage, respectively. At the point...

  15. A model-based evaluation of Marine Protected Areas: the example of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraus, Gerd; Pelletier, Dominique; Dubreuil, Julien

    2009-01-01

    , combining an age-structured population module with a multifleet exploitation module and a management module in a single model environment. The model is parameterized based on (i) the large amount of biological knowledge available for cod and (ii) an analysis of existing spatially disaggregated fishery data...

  16. Estimation of energy saving thanks to a reduced-model-based approach: Example of bread baking by jet impingement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alamir, M.; Witrant, E.; Della Valle, G.; Rouaud, O.; Josset, Ch.; Boillereaux, L.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a reduced order mechanistic model is proposed for the evolution of temperature and humidity during French bread baking. The model parameters are identified using experimental data. The resulting model is then used to estimate the potential energy saving that can be obtained using jet impingement technology when used to increase the heat transfer efficiency. Results show up to 16% potential energy saving under certain assumptions. - Highlights: ► We developed a mechanistic model of heat and mass transfer in bread including different and multiple energy sources. ► An optimal control system permits to track references trajectories with a minimization of energy consuming. ► The methodology is evaluated with jet impingement technique. ► Results show a significant energy saving of about 17% of energy with reasonable actuator variations

  17. Integrating geologic and engineering data into 3-D reservoir models: an example from norman wells field, NWT, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yose, L.A.

    2004-01-01

    A case study of the Norman Wells field will be presented to highlight the work-flow and data integration steps associated with characterization and modeling of a complex hydrocarbon reservoir. Norman Wells is a Devonian-age carbonate bank ('reef') located in the Northwest Territories of Canada, 60 kilometers south of the Arctic Circle. The reservoir reaches a maximum thickness of 130 meters in the reef interior and thins toward the basin due to depositional pinch outs. Norman Wells is an oil reservoir and is currently under a 5-spot water injection scheme for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). EOR strategies require a detailed understanding of how reservoir flow units, flow barriers and flow baffles are distributed to optimize hydrocarbon sweep and recovery and to minimize water handling. Reservoir models are routinely used by industry to characterize the 3-D distribution of reservoir architecture (stratigraphic layers, depositional facies, faults) and rock properties (porosity. permeability). Reservoir models are validated by matching historical performance data (e.g., reservoir pressures, well production or injection rates). Geologic models are adjusted until they produce a history match, and model adjustments are focused on inputs that have the greatest geologic uncertainty. Flow simulation models are then used to optimize field development strategies and to forecast field performance under different development scenarios. (author)

  18. The Economic Evaluation Model of the Use of the Intangible Resources Potential on the Example of Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena V. Mikhalkina

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the problem of assessing the potential use of intangible resources. The relevance of the research is determined by the necessity of innovation-based economy, the growing role of intangible resources (human, social, organizational, intellectual and other kinds of capital in promoting economic development of individual regions and the country as a whole. The paper proposes a verification method of the factors that characterize the potential use of intangible resources, affecting productivity. For a description of dependencies linear regression model was selected, also there was carried out an assessment of its parameters and performed Quality check of model. In the course of a capacity assessment intangible resource model constructing at the regional level was used regression analysis (the choice of indicator system, data collection and analysis, the calculation of the correlation coefficient, the choice of models and numerical estimation of its parameters, quality control model, assessment of the certain factors impact on the basis of the model. Also the factor analysis is used (matrix of factor loadings, and the classification on the basis of the factors selected regions is carried out. The regional clusterization of the intangible resources capacity will allow to make correct management decisions in the future.

  19. Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian W.; Peterson, Steven O.

    2015-09-03

    This paper (and its supplemental model) presents novel approaches to modeling interactions and related policies among investment, production, and learning in an emerging competitive industry. New biomass-to-biofuels pathways are being developed and commercialized to support goals for U.S. advanced biofuel use, such as those in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. We explore the impact of learning rates and techno-economics in a learning model excerpted from the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), developed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to explore the impact of biofuel policy on the evolution of the biofuels industry. The BSM integrates investment, production, and learning among competing biofuel conversion options that are at different stages of industrial development. We explain the novel methods used to simulate the impact of differing assumptions about mature industry techno-economics and about learning rates while accounting for the different maturity levels of various conversion pathways. A sensitivity study shows that the parameters studied (fixed capital investment, process yield, progress ratios, and pre-commercial investment) exhibit highly interactive effects, and the system, as modeled, tends toward market dominance of a single pathway due to competition and learning dynamics.

  20. Evolving MCDM Applications Using Hybrid Expert-Based ISM and DEMATEL Models: An Example of Sustainable Ecotourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Huan-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC), facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike. PMID:24453902

  1. Modeling prices of wholesale market of electric energy and power by the example of the UPS of the Ural

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokhov V.G.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article oversees forecasting model for deviations of the balancing market index and day-ahead market index according to the maximum similarity sample for different levels of approximation in the context of positive and negative time-series value. The model was being tested on the factual data of the Integrated Power system of the Ural, Wholesale market for electricity and power of Russian Federation. Describes the price formation on the day-ahead market and the balancing market index. The necessity to use accurate forecasting methods consumption and prices of electrical energy and power to reduce penalties when the electric power industry entities on the energy exchange. The testing of mathematical models to predict the balancing market index deviations and day-ahead market based on a sample of maximum similarity with certain approximation equations for positive and negative values gave the prediction error of 3.3%.

  2. Evolving MCDM Applications Using Hybrid Expert-Based ISM and DEMATEL Models: An Example of Sustainable Ecotourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan-Ming Chuang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC, facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike.

  3. Evolving MCDM applications using hybrid expert-based ISM and DEMATEL models: an example of sustainable ecotourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Huan-Ming; Lin, Chien-Ku; Chen, Da-Ren; Chen, You-Shyang

    2013-01-01

    Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC), facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike.

  4. The model of the first-year students’ adaptation to vocational training: the example of foreign language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galishninkova Elena M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the problem of adaptation of the first-year students to professional activity by means of foreign language. To design the adaptation model, we developed four-block questionnaires to determine students’ readiness for adaptation. The experiment resulted in the three groups of students with high, average and low levels of adaptation. Students with low level of adaptation become the target of our research. To remove the difficulties in studying a foreign language by the third group of students, an adaptation model was elaborated. Further, we identified the conditions for the effective implementation of the adaptation model of students to vocational training. In our view, these pedagogical conditions promote a more “sparing” transition of students to their main function as first-year students and increase the level of foreign language learning as well as improve the educational indicators.

  5. Model-based derivation, analysis and control of unstable microaerobic steady-states--considering Rhodospirillum rubrum as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carius, Lisa; Rumschinski, Philipp; Faulwasser, Timm; Flockerzi, Dietrich; Grammel, Hartmut; Findeisen, Rolf

    2014-04-01

    Microaerobic (oxygen-limited) conditions are critical for inducing many important microbial processes in industrial or environmental applications. At very low oxygen concentrations, however, the process performance often suffers from technical limitations. Available dissolved oxygen measurement techniques are not sensitive enough and thus control techniques, that can reliable handle these conditions, are lacking. Recently, we proposed a microaerobic process control strategy, which overcomes these restrictions and allows to assess different degrees of oxygen limitation in bioreactor batch cultivations. Here, we focus on the design of a control strategy for the automation of oxygen-limited continuous cultures using the microaerobic formation of photosynthetic membranes (PM) in Rhodospirillum rubrum as model phenomenon. We draw upon R. rubrum since the considered phenomenon depends on the optimal availability of mixed-carbon sources, hence on boundary conditions which make the process performance challenging. Empirically assessing these specific microaerobic conditions is scarcely practicable as such a process reacts highly sensitive to changes in the substrate composition and the oxygen availability in the culture broth. Therefore, we propose a model-based process control strategy which allows to stabilize steady-states of cultures grown under these conditions. As designing the appropriate strategy requires a detailed knowledge of the system behavior, we begin by deriving and validating an unstructured process model. This model is used to optimize the experimental conditions, and identify properties of the system which are critical for process performance. The derived model facilitates the good process performance via the proposed optimal control strategy. In summary the presented model-based control strategy allows to access and maintain microaerobic steady-states of interest and to precisely and efficiently transfer the culture from one stable microaerobic steady

  6. Using ComBase Predictor and Pathogen Modeling Program as support tools in outbreak investigation: an example from Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Cleide; Hansen, Tina Beck; Andersen, Jens Kirk

    2009-01-01

    of salt to the batter. A deterministic model was constructed in Microsoft Excel using information on the production of the implicated sausage. This model predicted the level of Y. enterocolitica to increase 2.3, 4.2 and 7.8 log-units during fermentation, drying and storage, respectively. At the point...... of release of the sausage for sale, 1 Y. enterocolitica could have increased to 106 and the sausage could, therefore, not be ruled out as the source of Y. enterocolitica found in two of the outbreak cases....

  7. ECONOMIC MODEL AND TOOLS OF THE AIR PROTECTION MANAGEMENT BASED ON THE EXAMPLE OF A COKING PLANT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danuta Hilse

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Legal-economic models of the air protection management at the Polish industrial plants, which take into account the regulations of the Act on “Environment protection law”, are far from being perfect. It is particularly noticeable in the coking industry where chargeable pollutions are chosen selectively, and unitary rates of emission charges are agreed at random. Tax deductions are not granted either to producers of fuel coke for reduction of pollutants emission in municipal-housing management after replacing coal with fuel coke. The proposed new economic model of the air protection management at coking plants eliminates the existing shortcomings.

  8. Modelling for Maritime Spatial Planning: Concepts, tools and practical examples from the BaltSeaPlan project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohn, Christian; Kotta, J.; Dahl, Karsten

    This study summarizes the most important aspects of integrating modelling into Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) and Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA). The results are part of an evaluation carried out in the framework of the EU BaltSeaPlan (BSP) project. The findings are based on a multi......-disciplinary assessment carried out by a working group composed of spatial planners, managers and environmental scientists under participation of the BSP community through a number of workshops and group discussions. The overall goal of the study was to identify the most important planning questions and the modelling...

  9. Serving Young Gifted Math Students: Educators Offer an Example of Implementing the Center for Talented Youth Model in Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corazza, Luciano; And Others

    1995-01-01

    This article describes the implementation in Brooklyn, New York, of the Diagnostic Testing and Prescriptive Instruction mathematics instruction model, which establishes the level of knowledge of each student and then offers instruction at the student's pace. Implementation involves teacher training, student selection, curriculum development, and…

  10. Improving environmental assessments by integrating Species Sensitivity Distributions into environmental modeling: examples with two hypothetical oil spills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejarano, Adriana C; Mearns, Alan J

    2015-04-15

    A three dimensional (3D) trajectory model was used to simulate oil mass balance and environmental concentrations of two 795,000 L hypothetical oil spills modeled under physical and chemical dispersion scenarios. Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSD) for Total Hydrocarbon Concentrations (THCs) were developed, and Hazard Concentrations (HC) used as levels of concern. Potential consequences to entrained water column organisms were characterized by comparing model outputs with SSDs, and obtaining the proportion of species affected (PSA) and areas with oil concentrations exceeding HC5s (Area ⩾ HC5). Under the physically-dispersed oil scenario ⩽ 77% of the oil remains on the water surface and strands on shorelines, while with the chemically-dispersed oil scenario ⩽ 67% of the oil is entrained in the water column. For every 10% increase in chemical dispersion effectiveness, the average PSA and Area ⩾ HC5 increases (range: 0.01-0.06 and 0.50-2.9 km(2), respectively), while shoreline oiling decreases (⩽ 2919 L/km). Integrating SSDs into modeling may improve understanding of scales of potential impacts to water column organisms, while providing net environmental benefit comparison of oil spill response options. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The Value of Decision Analytical Modeling in Surgical Research: An Example of Laparoscopic Versus Open Distal Pancreatectomy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tax, Casper; Govaert, Paulien H. M.; Stommel, Martijn W. J.; Besselink, Marc G. H.; Gooszen, Hein G.; Rovers, Maroeska M.

    2017-01-01

    To illustrate how decision modeling may identify relevant uncertainty and can preclude or identify areas of future research in surgery. To optimize use of research resources, a tool is needed that assists in identifying relevant uncertainties and the added value of reducing these uncertainties. The

  12. Knowledge Management in Sustainability Research Projects: Concepts, Effective Models, and Examples in a Multi-Stakeholder Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, David Brian; Köhler, Thomas; Weith, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to sketch a conceptual design for an information and knowledge management system in sustainability research projects. The suitable frameworks to implement knowledge transfer models constitute social communities, because the mutual exchange and learning processes among all stakeholders promote key sustainable developments through…

  13. The Development of an Implementation Model for ICT in Education: An Example of the Interaction of Affordances and Multimodality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadfield, Mark; Jopling, Michael

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses the development of a model targeted at non-specialist practitioners implementing innovations that involve information and communication technology (ICT) in education. It is based on data from a national evaluation of ICT-based projects in initial teacher education, which included a large-scale questionnaire survey and six…

  14. A geographical information system model for creating bioclimatic maps - examples from a high, mid-latitude city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Marie; Thorsson, Sofia; Lindqvist, Sven

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a method for creating large-scale bioclimatic maps with the aid of a geographical information system, GIS. Meteorological data are linked with geographical information about land use, elevation and distance to the coast, in order to generate spatial distributions of physiological equivalent temperature, PET. The model combines an air temperature map and a wind map in order to create different zones for which the thermal component is to be calculated. The advantage of the model presented is that it uses generally available information about land use, altitude and distance to the coast. Further, the model uses a GIS application, which makes it non-static. Compared to most other models, a wide range of observations are used as input. Few biometeorological studies have been performed in high-latitude areas. This paper presents bioclimatic maps for the Göteborg urban area, in Sweden, for the month of July. The results show large variations in PET during a clear, calm day at 1200 hours (ΔT 13.4 °C) and during average conditions in July (ΔT 6.8 °C), which gives an indication of the magnitude and the spatial variations within high, midlatitude, urban area in summer. The highest PET values were found in the central built-up areas and the lowest PET values in the coastal and green areas. The model generates valuable information for urban planners and decision makers when planning and constructing new areas for outdoor activities etc. This information is also useful in the fields of health and energy.

  15. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention programmes to prevent diabetes based on an example from Germany: Markov modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neumann Anne

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D poses a large worldwide burden for health care systems. One possible tool to decrease this burden is primary prevention. As it is unethical to wait until perfect data are available to conclude whether T2D primary prevention intervention programmes are cost-effective, we need a model that simulates the effect of prevention initiatives. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the long-term cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention programmes for the prevention of T2D using a Markov model. As decision makers often face difficulties in applying health economic results, we visualise our results with health economic tools. Methods We use four-state Markov modelling with a probabilistic cohort analysis to calculate the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY gained. A one-year cycle length and a lifetime time horizon are applied. Best available evidence supplies the model with data on transition probabilities between glycaemic states, mortality risks, utility weights, and disease costs. The costs are calculated from a societal perspective. A 3% discount rate is used for costs and QALYs. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves are presented to assist decision makers. Results The model indicates that diabetes prevention interventions have the potential to be cost-effective, but the outcome reveals a high level of uncertainty. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs were negative for the intervention, ie, the intervention leads to a cost reduction for men and women aged 30 or 50 years at initiation of the intervention. For men and women aged 70 at initiation of the intervention, the ICER was EUR27,546/QALY gained and EUR19,433/QALY gained, respectively. In all cases, the QALYs gained were low. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves show that the higher the willingness-to-pay threshold value, the higher the probability that the intervention is cost-effective. Nonetheless, all curves are

  16. Integration of a modeling task in water policy design - Example of a prospective scenarios approach on an agricultural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, P.; Raimbault, T.; Durand, P.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Masson, V.; Cordier, M. O.

    2010-05-01

    To meet the objectives of the Water Framework Directive in terms of nitrate pollution of surface water, numerous mitigation options have been proposed. To support stakeholders' decision prior to the implementation of regulations, scenario analysis by models can be used as a prospective approach. The work developed an extensive virtual experiment design from an initial basic requirement of catchment managers. Specific objectives were (1) to test the ability of a distributed model (TNT2) to simulate hydrology and hydrochemistry on a watershed with a high diversity of production systems, (2) to analyse a large set of scenarios and their effects on water quality and (3) to propose an effective mode of communication between research scientists and catchment managers. The focus of the scenario, in accord with catchment managers' requirement, is put on winter catch crop (CC). 5 conditions of implantation in rotations, 3 CC durations and 2 CC harvest modes were tested. CC is favoured by managers because of its simplicity to implement on fields and its relative low influence on farm strategy. Calibration and validation periods were run from 1998 to 2007 and scenario simulation period from 2007 to 2020. Results have been provided, for each scenario, by compartment (soil, atmosphere, plant uptake, water) but especially in the form of nitrogen mass balance at the catchment scale. The scenarios were ranked by integrating positive and negative effects of each measure. This 3-step-process: translation of a simple stakeholder question into extensive set of scenarios (complexification) - modeling process and data analysis - restitution to catchments' manager into a simple integrative form (simplification), gives an operational tool for decision support. In term of water quality, the best improvements in nitrate concentrations at the outlet reached a decrease of 0.8 mgL-1 compared to a "business as usual" scenario and were achieved by exporting the CC residue, by extending CC

  17. Using a food web model to inform the design of river restoration—An example at the Barkley Bear Segment, Methow River, north-central Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Joseph R.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Dombroski, Daniel

    2018-01-29

    With the decline of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss), habitat restoration actions in freshwater tributaries have been implemented to improve conditions for juveniles. Typically, physical (for example, hydrologic and engineering) based models are used to design restoration alternatives with the assumption that biological responses will be improved with changes to the physical habitat. Biological models rarely are used. Here, we describe simulations of a food web model, the Aquatic Trophic Productivity (ATP) model, to aid in the design of a restoration project in the Methow River, north-central Washington. The ATP model mechanistically links environmental conditions of the stream to the dynamics of river food webs, and can be used to simulate how alternative river restoration designs influence the potential for river reaches to sustain fish production. Four restoration design alternatives were identified that encompassed varying levels of side channel and floodplain reconnection and large wood addition. Our model simulations suggest that design alternatives focused on reconnecting side channels and the adjacent floodplain may provide the greatest increase in fish capacity. These results were robust to a range of discharge and thermal regimes that naturally occur in the Methow River. Our results suggest that biological models, such as the ATP model, can be used during the restoration planning phase to increase the effectiveness of restoration actions. Moreover, the use of multiple modeling efforts, both physical and biological, when evaluating restoration design alternatives provides a better understanding of the potential outcome of restoration actions.

  18. Implementing a generic method for bias correction in statistical models using random effects, with spatial and population dynamics examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorson, James T.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    abundance relative to the conventional plug-in estimator, and also gives essentially identical estimates to a sample-based bias-correction estimator. The epsilon-method has been implemented by us as a generic option in the open-source Template Model Builder software, and could be adapted within other...... is calculated as a nonlinear function of random effects. We therefore describe and evaluate a new "epsilon" estimator as a generic bias-correction estimator for derived quantities. We use simulated data to compare the epsilon-method with an existing bias-correction algorithm for estimating recruitment in four...... configurations of an age-structured population dynamics model. This simulation experiment shows that the epsilon-method and the existing bias-correction method perform equally well in data-rich contexts, but the epsilon-method is slightly less biased in data-poor contexts. We then apply the epsilon-method...

  19. An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn

    2016-01-01

    . However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk......This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used...... and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite...

  20. Absolute earthquake locations using 3-D versus 1-D velocity models below a local seismic network: example from the Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theunissen, T.; Chevrot, S.; Sylvander, M.; Monteiller, V.; Calvet, M.; Villaseñor, A.; Benahmed, S.; Pauchet, H.; Grimaud, F.

    2018-03-01

    Local seismic networks are usually designed so that earthquakes are located inside them (primary azimuthal gap 180° and distance to the first station higher than 15 km). Errors on velocity models and accuracy of absolute earthquake locations are assessed based on a reference data set made of active seismic, quarry blasts and passive temporary experiments. Solutions and uncertainties are estimated using the probabilistic approach of the NonLinLoc (NLLoc) software based on Equal Differential Time. Some updates have been added to NLLoc to better focus on the final solution (outlier exclusion, multiscale grid search, S-phases weighting). Errors in the probabilistic approach are defined to take into account errors on velocity models and on arrival times. The seismicity in the final 3-D catalogue is located with a horizontal uncertainty of about 2.0 ± 1.9 km and a vertical uncertainty of about 3.0 ± 2.0 km.

  1. An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

  2. A Model for Sustainable Development of Child Mental Health Infrastructure in the LMIC World: Vietnam as a Case Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Bahr; Ngo, Victoria Khanh; Dang, Hoang-Minh; Pollack, Amie; Trung, Lam T.; Tran, Cong V.; Tran, Nam T.; Sang, David; Do, Khanh N.

    2012-01-01

    Children and adolescents are among the highest need populations in regards to mental health support, especially in low and middle income countries (LMIC). Yet resources in LMIC for prevention and treatment of mental health problems are limited, in particular for children and adolescents. In this paper, we discuss a model for development of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) resources in LMIC that has guided a ten year initiative focused on development of CAMH treatment and research infrastructure in Vietnam. We first review the need for development of mental health resources for children and adolescents in general, and then in Vietnam. We next present the model that guided our program as it developed, focused on the twin Capacity Development Goals of efficacy and sustainability, and the Capacity Development Targets used to move towards these goals. Finally we discuss our CAMH development initiative in Vietnam, the center of which has been development of a graduate program in clinical psychology at Vietnam National University, linking program activities to this model. PMID:24701368

  3. Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

    2016-06-14

    To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

  4. First-principles model potentials for lattice-dynamical studies: general methodology and example of application to ferroic perovskite oxides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojdeł, Jacek C; Hermet, Patrick; Ljungberg, Mathias P; Ghosez, Philippe; Íñiguez, Jorge

    2013-07-31

    We present a scheme to construct model potentials, with parameters computed from first principles, for large-scale lattice-dynamical simulations of materials. We mimic the traditional solid-state approach to the investigation of vibrational spectra, i.e., we start from a suitably chosen reference configuration of the compound and describe its energy as a function of arbitrary atomic distortions by means of a Taylor series. Such a form of the potential-energy surface is general, trivial to formulate for any material, and physically transparent. Further, such models involve clear-cut approximations, their precision can be improved in a systematic fashion, and their simplicity allows for convenient and practical strategies to compute/fit the potential parameters. We illustrate our scheme with two challenging cases in which the model potential is strongly anharmonic, namely, the ferroic perovskite oxides PbTiO3 and SrTiO3. Studying these compounds allows us to better describe the connection between the so-called effective-Hamiltonian method and ours (which may be seen as an extension of the former), and to show the physical insight and predictive power provided by our approach-e.g., we present new results regarding the factors controlling phase-transition temperatures, novel phase transitions under elastic constraints, an improved treatment of thermal expansion, etc.

  5. A method for improving predictive modeling by taking into account lag time: Example of selenium bioaccumulation in a flowing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckon, William N.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A method for estimating response time in cause-effect relationships is demonstrated. • Predictive modeling is appreciably improved by taking into account this lag time. • Bioaccumulation lag is greater for organisms at higher trophic levels. • This methodology may be widely applicable in disparate disciplines. - Abstract: For bioaccumulative substances, efforts to predict concentrations in organisms at upper trophic levels, based on measurements of environmental exposure, have been confounded by the appreciable but hitherto unknown amount of time it may take for bioaccumulation to occur through various pathways and across several trophic transfers. The study summarized here demonstrates an objective method of estimating this lag time by testing a large array of potential lag times for selenium bioaccumulation, selecting the lag that provides the best regression between environmental exposure (concentration in ambient water) and concentration in the tissue of the target organism. Bioaccumulation lag is generally greater for organisms at higher trophic levels, reaching times of more than a year in piscivorous fish. Predictive modeling of bioaccumulation is improved appreciably by taking into account this lag. More generally, the method demonstrated here may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling in a wide variety of other cause-effect relationships in which lag time is substantial but inadequately known, in disciplines as diverse as climatology (e.g., the effect of greenhouse gases on sea levels) and economics (e.g., the effects of fiscal stimulus on employment).

  6. A method for improving predictive modeling by taking into account lag time: Example of selenium bioaccumulation in a flowing system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckon, William N., E-mail: William_Beckon@fws.gov

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • A method for estimating response time in cause-effect relationships is demonstrated. • Predictive modeling is appreciably improved by taking into account this lag time. • Bioaccumulation lag is greater for organisms at higher trophic levels. • This methodology may be widely applicable in disparate disciplines. - Abstract: For bioaccumulative substances, efforts to predict concentrations in organisms at upper trophic levels, based on measurements of environmental exposure, have been confounded by the appreciable but hitherto unknown amount of time it may take for bioaccumulation to occur through various pathways and across several trophic transfers. The study summarized here demonstrates an objective method of estimating this lag time by testing a large array of potential lag times for selenium bioaccumulation, selecting the lag that provides the best regression between environmental exposure (concentration in ambient water) and concentration in the tissue of the target organism. Bioaccumulation lag is generally greater for organisms at higher trophic levels, reaching times of more than a year in piscivorous fish. Predictive modeling of bioaccumulation is improved appreciably by taking into account this lag. More generally, the method demonstrated here may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling in a wide variety of other cause-effect relationships in which lag time is substantial but inadequately known, in disciplines as diverse as climatology (e.g., the effect of greenhouse gases on sea levels) and economics (e.g., the effects of fiscal stimulus on employment).

  7. 3-D modelling of a fossil tufa outcrop. The example of La Peña del Manto (Soria, Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta, Pedro; Armenteros, Ildefonso; Merino Tomé, Oscar; Rodríguez Gonzálvez, Pablo; Silva, Pablo G.; González-Aguilera, Diego; Carrasco-García, Pedro

    2016-03-01

    Classical studies of tufas lack quantitative outcrop descriptions and facies models, and normally do not integrate data from subsurface in the stratigraphic and evolutive analysis. This paper describes the methodology followed to construct one of the first digital outcrop models of fossil tufas. This model incorporates 3-D lines and surfaces obtained from a terrestrial laser scanner, electric resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles, and stratigraphic and sedimentologic data from 18 measured sections. This study has identified seven sedimentary units (from SU-1 to SU-7) which are composed of tufa carbonates (SU-1; 3; 5; 6) and clastics (SU-2; 4; 7). Facies identified occur in different proportions: phytoherm limestones of bryophytes represent 43% of tufa volume, bioclastic limestones 20%, phytoherm limestones of stems 12%, oncolitic limestones 8%, and clastics 15%. Three main architectural elements have been identified: 1) Steeply dipping strata dominated by phytoherm limestones of bryophytes; 2) gently dipping strata dominated by phytoherm limestones of stems; and 3) horizontal strata dominated by bioclastic and oncoid limestones. The alternation of tufa growth and clastic input stages is interpreted as the result of climatic changes during Mid-Late Pleistocene.

  8. The standard model prediction for the electric dipole moment of the electron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoogeveen, F.

    1990-01-01

    The electric dipole moment of the electron is calculated within the standard model with three generations of quarks. Depending on the values of some unknown parameters like the top quark mass and the CP-violating phase δ in the Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix, its value is of the order of magnitude of 2x10 -38 vertical strokeevertical stroke cm. (orig.)

  9. Climate change in a Point-Over-Threshold model: an example on ocean-wave-storm hazard in NE Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Ortego, M. I.; Egozcue, J. J.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2009-09-01

    Climatic change is a problem of general concern. When dealing with hazardous events such as wind-storms, heavy rainfall or ocean-wave storms this concern is even more serious. Climate change might imply an increase of human and material losses, and it is worth devoting efforts to detect it. Hazard assessment of such events is often carried out with a point-over-threshold (POT) model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed to be Poisson distributed, and the magnitude of each event is modelled as an arbitrary random variable, which upper tail is described by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Independence between this magnitude and occurrence in time is assumed, as well as independence from event to event. The GPD models excesses over a threshold. If X is the magnitude of an event and x0 a value of the support of X, the excess over the threshold x0 is Y = X - x0, conditioned to X > x0. Therefore, the support of Y is (a segment of) the positive real line. The GPD model has a scale and a shape parameter. The scale parameter of the distribution is β > 0. The shape parameter, ? is real-valued, and it defines three different sub-families of distributions. GPD distributions with ? 0, distributions have infinite heavy tails (ysup = +? ), and for ? = 0 we obtain the exponential distribution, which has an infinite support but a well-behaved tail. The GPD distribution function is ( ? )- 1 ? FY(y|β,?) = 1- 1+ β-y , 0 ? y case study, we may be sure that there is a maximal height related to physical limitations (sea depth, fetch distance, water density, etc.). Thus, we choose as a priori statement that ? successfully for daily rainfall data and ocean-wave-height. How to assess impact of climate change on hazardous events? In a climate change scenario, we can consider the model for description of the variable as stable, while its parameters may be taken as a function of time. Thus, magnitudes are taken in a log-scale. Excesses over a threshold are modeled by a GPD with a

  10. Modeling of solution renewal with the Kindis code: example of R7T7 glass dissolution at 90 deg C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Advocat, T.; Vernaz, E.; Crovisier, J.L.; Clement, A.; Gerard, F.

    1994-01-01

    The deep underground environment that would correspond to a geological repository is a system open to fluid flow. It is therefore necessary to investigate the effects of solution renewal on the long-term behavior of glass in contact with water. These effects can now be simulated using the new version of the geochemical KINDIS model (thermodynamic and kinetic model). We tested the model at 90 deg C with an SA/V ratio of 400 m -1 at twelve renewal rates of pure water ranging from 200 to 0 vol% per day. With renewal rates between 200 and 0.065 vol% per day, steady-state conditions were obtained in the reaction system: i.e. the glass corrosion rate remained constant as did the concentrations of the dissolved species in solution (although at different values depending on the renewal rate). The ionic strength never exceeded 1 (the validity limit for the DEBYE-HUCKEL law) and long term predictions of the dissolved glass mass, the solution composition and the potential secondary mineral sequence are possible. For simulated renewal rates of less than 0.065 vol% per day (27% per year), the ionic strength rose above 1 (as in a closed system) before steady-state conditions were reached, making it critical to calculate long-term rates; A constant and empirical long-term rate, derived from laboratory measurement, have to be extrapolated. These calculations were based on a first order equation to describe the glass dissolution kinetic. The results obtained with the KINDIS code show discrepancies with some major experimental kinetic data (the long term rate must decrease with the ''glass-water'' reaction progress, under silica saturation conditions). This clearly indicates that a more refine kinetic relation is needed for the glass matrix. (authors). 16 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  11. Using dynamic stochastic modelling to estimate population risk factors in infectious disease: the example of FIV in 15 cat populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Fouchet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.

  12. Can theory be embedded in visual interventions to promote self-management? A proposed model and worked example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B; Anderson, A S; Barton, K; McGhee, J

    2012-12-01

    Nurses are increasingly involved in a range of strategies to encourage patient behaviours that improve self-management. If nurses are to be involved in, or indeed lead, the development of such interventions then processes that enhance the likelihood that they will lead to evidence that is both robust and usable in practice are required. Although behavioural interventions have been predominantly based on written text or the spoken word increasing numbers are now drawing on visual media to communicate their message, despite only a growing evidence base to support it. The use of such media in health interventions is likely to increase due to technological advances enabling easier and cheaper production, and an increasing social preference for visual forms of communication. However, the development of such media is often highly pragmatic and developed intuitively rather than with theory and evidence informing their content and form. Such a process may be at best inefficient and at worst potentially harmful. This paper performs two functions. Firstly, it discusses and argues why visual based interventions may be a powerful media for behaviour change; and secondly, it proposes a model, developed from the MRC Framework for the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions, to guide the creation of theory informed visual interventions. It employs a case study of the development of an intervention to motivate involvement in a lifestyle intervention among people with increased cardiovascular risk. In doing this we argue for a step-wise model which includes: (1) the identification of a theoretical basis and associated concepts; (2) the development of visual narrative to establish structure; (3) the visual rendering of narrative and concepts; and (4) the assessment of interpretation and impact among the intended patient group. We go on to discuss the theoretical and methodological limitations of the model. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Examples that illustrate sedimentological aspects of the proterozoic placer model on the Kaap-Vaal Craton, Witwatersrand, South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minter, W.E.L.

    1981-01-01

    In the fluvial-fan model of Proterozoic placers in South Africa, mid-fan and fanbase environments are illustrated by the Ventersdorp Contact Reef, proximal braided-belt environments by the B Reef, distal braided-belt environments by the Vaal Reef, and deltaiclike environments by sheets, ribbons, and pods at the extremities of the South and Basal Reefs. The nature of distribution of gold and uranium in these various environments has been evaluated and the knowledge successfully applied by the author to the valuation and practical mining of the reefs since 1965

  14. Calibration of the computer model describing flows in the water supply system; example of the application of a genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orłowska-Szostak, Maria; Orłowski, Ryszard

    2017-11-01

    The paper discusses some relevant aspects of the calibration of a computer model describing flows in the water supply system. The authors described an exemplary water supply system and used it as a practical illustration of calibration. A range of measures was discussed and applied, which improve the convergence and effective use of calculations in the calibration process and also the effect of such calibration which is the validity of the results obtained. Drawing up results of performed measurements, i.e. estimating pipe roughnesses, the authors performed using the genetic algorithm implementation of which is a software developed by Resan Labs company from Brazil.

  15. Modeling retrospective attribution of responsibility to hazard-managing institutions: an example involving a food contamination incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Branden B; Hallman, William K; Cuite, Cara L

    2015-03-01

    Perceptions of institutions that manage hazards are important because they can affect how the public responds to hazard events. Antecedents of trust judgments have received far more attention than antecedents of attributions of responsibility for hazard events. We build upon a model of retrospective attribution of responsibility to individuals to examine these relationships regarding five classes of institutions that bear responsibility for food safety: producers (e.g., farmers), processors (e.g., packaging firms), watchdogs (e.g., government agencies), sellers (e.g., supermarkets), and preparers (e.g., restaurants). A nationally representative sample of 1,200 American adults completed an Internet-based survey in which a hypothetical scenario involving contamination of diverse foods with Salmonella served as the stimulus event. Perceived competence and good intentions of the institution moderately decreased attributions of responsibility. A stronger factor was whether an institution was deemed (potentially) aware of the contamination and free to act to prevent or mitigate it. Responsibility was rated higher the more aware and free the institution. This initial model for attributions of responsibility to impersonal institutions (as opposed to individual responsibility) merits further development. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Molecular Modeling and Simulation Tools in the Development of Peptide-Based Biosensors for Mycotoxin Detection: Example of Ochratoxin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aby A. Thyparambil

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Mycotoxin contamination of food and feed is now ubiquitous. Exposures to mycotoxin via contact or ingestion can potentially induce adverse health outcomes. Affordable mycotoxin-monitoring systems are highly desired but are limited by (a the reliance on technically challenging and costly molecular recognition by immuno-capture technologies; and (b the lack of predictive tools for directing the optimization of alternative molecular recognition modalities. Our group has been exploring the development of ochratoxin detection and monitoring systems using the peptide NFO4 as the molecular recognition receptor in fluorescence, electrochemical and multimodal biosensors. Using ochratoxin as the model mycotoxin, we share our perspective on addressing the technical challenges involved in biosensor fabrication, namely: (a peptide receptor design; and (b performance evaluation. Subsequently, the scope and utility of molecular modeling and simulation (MMS approaches to address the above challenges are described. Informed and enabled by phage display, the subsequent application of MMS approaches can rationally guide subsequent biomolecular engineering of peptide receptors, including bioconjugation and bioimmobilization approaches to be used in the fabrication of peptide biosensors. MMS approaches thus have the potential to reduce biosensor development cost, extend product life cycle, and facilitate multi-analyte detection of mycotoxins, each of which positively contributes to the overall affordability of mycotoxin biosensor monitoring systems.

  17. Modeling phytosanitary risk of unintended commodity use: the example of U.S. potato exports to Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Glenn; Erikson, Lottie; Caton, Barney; Gutierrez, Walter; Griffin, Robert

    2014-09-01

    Diversion of commodities from their intended use to an unintended use, e.g., when commodities intended for consumption are used as seed for planting, is an important issue in agricultural trade that has implications for the establishment of pests and pathogens in an importing country and for the appropriate strength of plant health measures. Consequently, understanding and accurately characterizing the risk of diversion from intended use is highly relevant to policymakers, trading partners, and in trade dispute arbitration. To our knowledge, no risk assessments have ever accounted for the likelihood of diversion from intended use. Here we present an approach to analyzing this risk using diversion of U.S. table stock potatoes to seed for planting by Mexican potato producers as a case study. We use probabilistic pathway models to characterize the movement of white, yellow, and russet potatoes from the United States into Mexico at current and double export volumes. We then model the likelihood of these potatoes being diverted for seed and the subsequent establishment of bacteria, nematode, and virus pests in Mexico. Our approach demonstrates how diversion from intended use can be quantified in one scenario and, in particular, how it can be analyzed to estimate the magnitude of diversion required to produce a high risk of pest establishment. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain for the U.S.A.

  18. Modeling a Conventional Electroporation Pulse Train: Decreased Pore Number, Cumulative Calcium Transport and an Example of Electrosensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Reuben S; Gowrishankar, Thiruvallur R; Smith, Kyle C; Weaver, James C

    2016-03-01

    Pulse trains are widely used in electroporation (EP) for both general biomedical research and clinical applications such as nonthermal tumor ablation. Here we use a computational method based on a meshed transport network to investigate a cell system model's response to a train of identical, evenly spaced electric field pulses. We obtain an unexpected result: the number of membrane pores decreases during the application of twenty 1.0 kV/cm, 100 μs pulses, delivered at 1 Hz. This pulse train initially creates 13,000 membrane pores, but pore number decreases by a factor of 15 to about 830 pores throughout subsequent pulses. We conclude that pore number can greatly diminish during a train of identical pulses, with direct consequences for the transport of solutes across an electroporated membrane. Although application of additional pulses is generally intended to increase the effects of EP, we show that these pulses do not significantly enhance calcium delivery into the cell. Instead, calcium delivery can be significantly increased by varying inter-pulse intervals. We show that inserting a 300-s interruption midway in a widely used eight-pulse train (a protocol for electrosensitization) yields a ∼ twofold delivery increase. Overall, our modeling shows support for electrosensitization, in which multiple pulse protocols that maximize pore number over time can yield significant increase of transport of calcium compared to standard pulse trains.

  19. Comparison of Radioecological Processes on Examples of Villages Polluted by 137Cs and 90Sr Appreciated on the Box Model Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matvjejeva, I.V.; Kutlakhmedov, Yu.O.; Isajenko, V.M.; Krivorot'ko, V.M.

    2006-01-01

    Results of the analysis of 137 Cs radionuclides flows as an example of village Galusia of the Volyn region and in ecosystem of village Kotsubinchiki in Ternopil region polluted by 90 Sr are considered. The analysis is made by the method of box models. The block diagrams of ecosystems were created, and the mathematical models by the method of box models are developed. It has allowed estimating ways of formation doses of an internal irradiation at the expense of products of meal for different groups of population - working people, pensioners and children, and prognosis dynamics of these doses for the next years after Chornobyl NPP accident. It was established, that doses in these villages formed by other ways, depending on radionuclide, pastures structure and levels of their pollution

  20. Testing Pixel Translation Digital Elevation Models to Reconstruct Slip Histories: An Example from the Agua Blanca Fault, Baja California, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J.; Wetmore, P. H.; Malservisi, R.; Ferwerda, B. P.; Teran, O.

    2012-12-01

    We use recently collected slip vector and total offset data from the Agua Blanca fault (ABF) to constrain a pixel translation digital elevation model (DEM) to reconstruct the slip history of this fault. This model was constructed using a Perl script that reads a DEM file (Easting, Northing, Elevation) and a configuration file with coordinates that define the boundary of each fault segment. A pixel translation vector is defined as a magnitude of lateral offset in an azimuthal direction. The program translates pixels north of the fault and prints their pre-faulting position to a new DEM file that can be gridded and displayed. This analysis, where multiple DEMs are created with different translation vectors, allows us to identify areas of transtension or transpression while seeing the topographic expression in these areas. The benefit of this technique, in contrast to a simple block model, is that the DEM gives us a valuable graphic which can be used to pose new research questions. We have found that many topographic features correlate across the fault, i.e. valleys and ridges, which likely have implications for the age of the ABF, long term landscape evolution rates, and potentially provide conformation for total slip assessments The ABF of northern Baja California, Mexico is an active, dextral strike slip fault that transfers Pacific-North American plate boundary strain out of the Gulf of California and around the "Big Bend" of the San Andreas Fault. Total displacement on the ABF in the central and eastern parts of the fault is 10 +/- 2 km based on offset Early-Cretaceous features such as terrane boundaries and intrusive bodies (plutons and dike swarms). Where the fault bifurcates to the west, the northern strand (northern Agua Blanca fault or NABF) is constrained to 7 +/- 1 km. We have not yet identified piercing points on the southern strand, the Santo Tomas fault (STF), but displacement is inferred to be ~4 km assuming that the sum of slip on the NABF and STF is

  1. Some Aspects of Nonlinearity and Self-Organization In Biosystems on Examples of Localized Excitations in the DNA Molecule and Generalized Fisher–KPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Shapovalov

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This review deals with ideas and approaches to nonlinear phenomena, based on different branches of physics and related to biological systems, that focus on how small impacts can significantly change the state of the system at large spatial scales. This problem is very extensive, and it cannot be fully resolved in this paper. Instead, some selected physical effects are briefly reviewed. We consider sine-Gordon solitons and nonlinear Schrodinger solitons in some models of DNA as examples of self-organization at the molecular level, as well as examine features of their formation and dynamics under the influence of external influences. In addition, the formation of patterns in the generalized Fisher–KPP model is viewed as a simple example of self-organization in a system with nonlocal interaction at the cellular level. Symmetries of model equations are employed to analyze the considered nonlinear phenomena. In this context the possible relations between phenomena considered and released activity effect, which is assessed differently in the literature, are discussed.

  2. Thomas Kuhn's 'Structure of Scientific Revolutions' applied to exercise science paradigm shifts: example including the Central Governor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Flávio de Oliveira; de Oliveira Pires, Flávio

    2013-07-01

    According to Thomas Kuhn, the scientific progress of any discipline could be distinguished by a pre-paradigm phase, a normal science phase and a revolution phase. The science advances when a scientific revolution takes place after silent period of normal science and the scientific community moves ahead to a paradigm shift. I suggest there has been a recent change of course in the direction of the exercise science. According to the 'current paradigm', exercise would be probably limited by alterations in either central command or peripheral skeletal muscles, and fatigue would be developed in a task-dependent manner. Instead, the central governor model (GCM) has proposed that all forms of exercise are centrally-regulated, the central nervous system would calculate the metabolic cost required to complete a task in order to avoid catastrophic body failure. Some have criticized the CGM and supported the traditional interpretation, but recently the scientific community appears to have begun an intellectual trajectory to accept this theory. First, the increased number of citations of articles that have supported the CGM could indicate that the community has changed the focus. Second, relevant journals have devoted special editions to promote the debate on subjects challenged by the CGM. Finally, scientists from different fields have recognized mechanisms included in the CGM to understand the exercise limits. Given the importance of the scientific community in demarcating a Kuhnian paradigm shift, I suggest that these three aspects could indicate an increased acceptance of a centrally-regulated effort model, to understand the limits of exercise.

  3. Using occupancy models to investigate the prevalence of ectoparasitic vectors on hosts: an example with fleas on prairie dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eads, David A.; Biggins, Dean E.; Doherty, Paul F.; Gage, Kenneth L.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Long, Dustin H.; Antolin, Michael F.

    2013-01-01

    Ectoparasites are often difficult to detect in the field. We developed a method that can be used with occupancy models to estimate the prevalence of ectoparasites on hosts, and to investigate factors that influence rates of ectoparasite occupancy while accounting for imperfect detection. We describe the approach using a study of fleas (Siphonaptera) on black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). During each primary occasion (monthly trapping events), we combed a prairie dog three consecutive times to detect fleas (15 s/combing). We used robust design occupancy modeling to evaluate hypotheses for factors that might correlate with the occurrence of fleas on prairie dogs, and factors that might influence the rate at which prairie dogs are colonized by fleas. Our combing method was highly effective; dislodged fleas fell into a tub of water and could not escape, and there was an estimated 99.3% probability of detecting a flea on an occupied host when using three combings. While overall detection was high, the probability of detection was always dogs, flea occupancy was heightened in old/natural colonies of prairie dogs, and on hosts that were in poor condition. Occupancy was initially low in plots with high densities of prairie dogs, but, as the study progressed, the rate of flea colonization increased in plots with high densities of prairie dogs in particular. Our methodology can be used to improve studies of ectoparasites, especially when the probability of detection is low. Moreover, the method can be modified to investigate the co-occurrence of ectoparasite species, and community level factors such as species richness and interspecific interactions.

  4. A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie New

    Full Text Available Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1 in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4; 80th

  5. A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Leslie; Bjerre, Emily; Millsap, Brian; Otto, Mark C; Runge, Michael C

    2015-01-01

    Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80th quantile, 6

  6. [Interdisciplinary Care of Employees with Mental Disorders: A Fact Check Using the Salzgitter-Model as an Example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Katharina; Wunsch, Eva-Maria; Finger, Friederike; Kröger, Christoph

    2016-06-01

    Mental disorders are quite common among employees, and cause enormous economic costs. The Salzgitter-Model aims at an early recognition of mental disorders in employees of raw material processing industries by rendering a diagnostic examination (DE), so that appropriate health-care services may be provided promptly. Data of a consecutive sample consisting of 133 mentally ill employees (61% men) were analyzed. Mental disorders were diagnosed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. Moreover, routine data of company health insurance funds collected in the 6 months preceding the DE were evaluated. On average, the DE was conducted 14 days after application. Half the diagnoses were of mood disorders, while almost one third consisted of neurotic, stress-related, and somatoform disorders. For 63% of diagnoses from the DE, a correspondence was found with diagnoses made by practitioners during standard care over the previous 6 months. Of these employees, 42% received drug therapy. However more than one fifth did not receive guideline-based psychopharmacological treatment. Psychological symptoms and work-related factors were the main reasons for utilization of the DE. No employee had received psychotherapeutic treatment prior to the DE; more than 90% accepted the recommendation of treatment after the DE. Strengthened interdisciplinary cooperation can improve the utilization of an employee group that usually does not seek out specific diagnostic examinations and psychotherapeutic treatment. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  7. Finding candidate genes under positive selection in Non-model species: examples of genes involved in host specialization in pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguileta, G; Lengelle, J; Marthey, S; Chiapello, H; Rodolphe, F; Gendrault, A; Yockteng, R; Vercken, E; Devier, B; Fontaine, M C; Wincker, P; Dossat, C; Cruaud, C; Couloux, A; Giraud, T

    2010-01-01

    Numerous genes in diverse organisms have been shown to be under positive selection, especially genes involved in reproduction, adaptation to contrasting environments, hybrid inviability, and host-pathogen interactions. Looking for genes under positive selection in pathogens has been a priority in efforts to investigate coevolution dynamics and to develop vaccines or drugs. To elucidate the functions involved in host specialization, here we aimed at identifying candidate sequences that could have evolved under positive selection among closely related pathogens specialized on different hosts. For this goal, we sequenced c. 17,000-32,000 ESTs from each of four Microbotryum species, which are fungal pathogens responsible for anther smut disease on host plants in the Caryophyllaceae. Forty-two of the 372 predicted orthologous genes showed significant signal of positive selection, which represents a good number of candidate genes for further investigation. Sequencing 16 of these genes in 9 additional Microbotryum species confirmed that they have indeed been rapidly evolving in the pathogen species specialized on different hosts. The genes showing significant signals of positive selection were putatively involved in nutrient uptake from the host, secondary metabolite synthesis and secretion, respiration under stressful conditions and stress response, hyphal growth and differentiation, and regulation of expression by other genes. Many of these genes had transmembrane domains and may therefore also be involved in pathogen recognition by the host. Our approach thus revealed fruitful and should be feasible for many non-model organisms for which candidate genes for diversifying selection are needed.

  8. Getting it right before transplantation: example of a stem cell model with regenerative potential for the CNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cedric eViero

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The burden of neurodegenerative disorders in an aging population has become a challenge for the modern world. While the biomarkers available and the methods of diagnosis have improved to detect the onset of these diseases at early stages, the question of adapted and efficient therapies is still a major issue. The prospect of replacing the loss of functional neural cells remains an attractive but still audacious approach. A huge progress has been made in the generation of neurones derived from human stem cell lines and transplantation assays are tested in animals for a wide range of pathologies of the central nervous system. Here we take one step back and examine neuronal differentiation and the characterisation of neural progenitors derived from human embryonic stem cells. We gather results from our previous studies and present a cell model that was successfully used in functional analyses and engraftment experiments. These neuronal precursors exhibit spontaneous and evoked activity, indicating that their electrophysiological and calcium handling properties are similar to those of matured neurones. Hence this summarised information will serve as a basis to design better stem cell-based therapies to improve neural regeneration.

  9. Getting it right before transplantation: example of a stem cell model with regenerative potential for the CNS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viero, Cedric; Forostyak, Oksana; Sykova, Eva; Dayanithi, Govindan

    2014-01-01

    The burden of neurodegenerative disorders in an aging population has become a challenge for the modern world. While the biomarkers available and the methods of diagnosis have improved to detect the onset of these diseases at early stages, the question of adapted and efficient therapies is still a major issue. The prospect of replacing the loss of functional neural cells remains an attractive but still audacious approach. A huge progress has been made in the generation of neurons derived from human stem cell lines and transplantation assays are tested in animals for a wide range of pathologies of the central nervous system. Here we take one step back and examine neuronal differentiation and the characterization of neural progenitors derived from human embryonic stem cells. We gather results from our previous studies and present a cell model that was successfully used in functional analyses and engraftment experiments. These neuronal precursors exhibit spontaneous and evoked activity, indicating that their electrophysiological and calcium handling properties are similar to those of matured neurons. Hence this summarized information will serve as a basis to design better stem cell-based therapies to improve neural regeneration.

  10. Exxon Nuclear Company ECCS evaluation of a 2-loop Westinghouse PWR with dry containment using the ENC WREM-II ECCS model. Large break example problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krajicek, J.E.

    1977-01-01

    This document is presented as a demonstration of the ENC WREM-II ECCS model calculational procedure applied to a Westinghouse 2-loop PWR with a dry containment (R. E. Ginna plant, for example). The hypothesized Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) investigated was a split break with an area equal to twice the pipe cross-sectional area. The break was assumed to occur in one pump discharge pipe (DECLS break). The analyses involved calculations using the ENC WREM-II model. The following codes were used: RELAP4-EM/ENC26A for blowdown and hot channel analyses, RELAP4-EM FLOOD/ENC26A for core reflood analysis, CONTEMPT LT/22 modified for containment backpressure analysis, and TOODEE2/APR77 for heatup analysis

  11. (How) does sectoral detail affect the robustness of policy insights from energy system models? The refining sector's example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolas, Claire; Saint-Antonin, Valerie; Tchung-Ming, Stephane

    2014-01-01

    In this research, we rekindle an old debate by questioning the impact on mitigating policy evaluation of detailing a sub-sector in a global energy-transportation model. We chose the refining sector because it is a relevant case of a sector for which representation widely differs across models and because it offers a unique set of complex joint production in the energy sector. To investigate whether the level of detail in the description of the refinery impacts optimal mitigation options, we take the example of a long-term, national, linear programming based, energy-transport system model (TIMES based). We found that the refinery description used in the energy system model matters when trying to evaluate energy or climate policy applied to the transportation sector. It impacts the policy costs but also the technology trajectories chosen at the optimum. Essentially, the balance between energy efficiency and carbon intensity of transport may be affected by the accuracy of the description of the pivotal refining sector. Consequently, increasing this sector accuracy level should not only be motivated by the wish to gain wider quantitative insights on potential evolution of the energy system but also by the wish to improve the robustness of the model outcomes. (authors)

  12. PAC-Learning from General Examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Hoeffgen, K.- U.; Lefmann, H.

    1997-01-01

    We study a novel view on the PAC learning model in which the examples are more complicated than in the standard model. There, an example usually is an element of the learning domain and its label indicates whether it belongs to the target concept. Here, the examples can be subsets and their label...

  13. MODEL-DRIVEN REVERSE ENGINEERING AND PROGRAM COMPREHENSION: AN EXAMPLE INGENIERÍA REVERSA Y COMPRENSIÓN DE PROGRAMAS DIRIGIDA POR MODELOS: UN EJEMPLO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio G Scalise P

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an example of how Model-Driven Engineering (MDE can be applied to the development of tools for reverse engineering and program comprehension. The tool CodeCrawler was selected as an example; in particular, the polymetric view feature was computed using MDE techniques. To this end, two metamodels were proposed (source and target and meta-level transformations that were used to deduce the information of a polymetric view associated to any software project (source code. The technologies selected to develop the example were those related with the Eclipse Modeling Project, specifically the ATL and the KM3 languages. The approach used in this paper to obtain the implementation can be used to develop all the features of a MDE-oriented software comprehension tool, obtaining a domain-oriented implementation.En este artículo se presenta un ejemplo que describe cómo la Ingeniería Dirigida por Modelos (IDM puede ser aplicada al desarrollo de herramientas para la ingeniería reversa y comprensión de programas. Se seleccionó como caso de estudio la herramienta CodeCrawler, específicamente la funcionalidad denominada polymetric view, desarrollada mediante tecnologías y técnicas de la IDM. Para ello, se emplearon dos metamodelos (entrada y salida y transformaciones a nivel de los metamodelos que permiten generar la información de un polymetric view asociado a un proyecto de software, utilizando la información extraída del código fuente. Las tecnologías utilizadas para el desarrollo del ejemplo, las relacionadas con el Eclipse Modeling Project, específicamente el lenguaje de transformación ATL y el lenguaje KM3. El enfoque seguido para obtener la implementación resultante puede ser utilizado para desarrollar una herramienta de ingeniería reversa y comprensión de software mediante técnicas de la IDM, incorporando el vocabulario del dominio en la implementación.

  14. A Finite Difference, Semi-implicit, Equation-of-State Efficient Algorithm for the Compositional Flow Modeling in the Subsurface: Numerical Examples

    KAUST Repository

    Saavedra, Sebastian

    2012-07-01

    The mathematical model that has been recognized to have the more accurate approximation to the physical laws govern subsurface hydrocarbon flow in reservoirs is the Compositional Model. The features of this model are adequate to describe not only the performance of a multiphase system but also to represent the transport of chemical species in a porous medium. Its importance relies not only on its current relevance to simulate petroleum extraction processes, such as, Primary, Secondary, and Enhanced Oil Recovery Process (EOR) processes but also, in the recent years, carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration. The purpose of this study is to investigate the subsurface compositional flow under isothermal conditions for several oil well cases. While simultaneously addressing computational implementation finesses to contribute to the efficiency of the algorithm. This study provides the theoretical framework and computational implementation subtleties of an IMplicit Pressure Explicit Composition (IMPEC)-Volume-balance (VB), two-phase, equation-of-state, approach to model isothermal compositional flow based on the finite difference scheme. The developed model neglects capillary effects and diffusion. From the phase equilibrium premise, the model accounts for volumetric performances of the phases, compressibility of the phases, and composition-dependent viscosities. The Equation of State (EoS) employed to approximate the hydrocarbons behaviour is the Peng Robinson Equation of State (PR-EOS). Various numerical examples were simulated. The numerical results captured the complex physics involved, i.e., compositional, gravitational, phase-splitting, viscosity and relative permeability effects. Regarding the numerical scheme, a phase-volumetric-flux estimation eases the calculation of phase velocities by naturally fitting to phase-upstream-upwinding. And contributes to a faster computation and an efficient programming development.

  15. Impacts of Quaternary History on Critical Zone Structure and Processes: Examples and a Conceptual Model From the Intensively Managed Landscapes Critical Zone Observatory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison M. Anders

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The concept of a critical zone (CZ supporting terrestrial life has fostered groundbreaking interdisciplinary science addressing complex interactions among water, soil, rock, air, and life near Earth's surface. Pioneering work has focused on the CZ in areas with residual soils and steady-state or erosional topography. CZ evolution in these areas is conceptualized as progressive weathering of local bedrock (e.g., in the flow-through reactor model. However, this model is not applicable to areas in which weathering profiles form in transported materials including the formerly glaciated portion of the Central Lowland of North America. We present a new conceptual model of CZ evolution in landscapes impacted by continental glaciation based on investigations at three study sites in the Intensively Managed Landscapes Critical Zone Observatory (IML-CZO The IML-CZO is devoted to the study of CZ processes in a region characterized by thick surficial deposits resulting from multiple continental glaciations, with bedrock at depths of up to 150 m. Here the physical (glacial ice, loess, developing soil profiles and biological (microbes, tundra, forest, prairie components of the CZ vary significantly in time. Moreover, the spatial relationships between mineral components of the CZ record a history of glacial-interglacial cycles and landscape evolution. We present cross-sections from IML-CZO sites to provide specific examples of how environmental change is recorded by the structure of the mineral components of the CZ. We build on these examples to create an idealized model of CZ evolution through a glacial cycle that represents the IML-CZO sites and other areas of low relief that have experienced continental glaciation. In addition, we identify two main characteristics of CZ structure which should be included in a conceptual model of CZ development in the IML-CZO and similar settings: (1 mineral components have diverse origins and transport trajectories including

  16. Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Alderton

    Full Text Available In this research, an agent-based model (ABM was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval. This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

  17. Automating calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models using the R package Flexible Modeling Environment (FME): SWAT as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Liu, S.

    2012-01-01

    Parameter optimization and uncertainty issues are a great challenge for the application of large environmental models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a physically-based hydrological model for simulating water and nutrient cycles at the watershed scale. In this study, we present a comprehensive modeling environment for SWAT, including automated calibration, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis capabilities through integration with the R package Flexible Modeling Environment (FME). To address challenges (e.g., calling the model in R and transferring variables between Fortran and R) in developing such a two-language coupling framework, 1) we converted the Fortran-based SWAT model to an R function (R-SWAT) using the RFortran platform, and alternatively 2) we compiled SWAT as a Dynamic Link Library (DLL). We then wrapped SWAT (via R-SWAT) with FME to perform complex applications including parameter identifiability, inverse modeling, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the R environment. The final R-SWAT-FME framework has the following key functionalities: automatic initialization of R, running Fortran-based SWAT and R commands in parallel, transferring parameters and model output between SWAT and R, and inverse modeling with visualization. To examine this framework and demonstrate how it works, a case study simulating streamflow in the Cedar River Basin in Iowa in the United Sates was used, and we compared it with the built-in auto-calibration tool of SWAT in parameter optimization. Results indicate that both methods performed well and similarly in searching a set of optimal parameters. Nonetheless, the R-SWAT-FME is more attractive due to its instant visualization, and potential to take advantage of other R packages (e.g., inverse modeling and statistical graphics). The methods presented in the paper are readily adaptable to other model applications that require capability for automated calibration, and sensitivity and uncertainty

  18. Setting priorities in health research using the model proposed by the World Health Organization: development of a quantitative methodology using tuberculosis in South Africa as a worked example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacking, Damian; Cleary, Susan

    2016-02-09

    Setting priorities is important in health research given the limited resources available for research. Various guidelines exist to assist in the priority setting process; however, priority setting still faces significant challenges such as the clear ranking of identified priorities. The World Health Organization (WHO) proposed a Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY)-based model to rank priorities by research area (basic, health systems and biomedical) by dividing the DALYs into 'unavertable with existing interventions', 'avertable with improved efficiency' and 'avertable with existing but non-cost-effective interventions', respectively. However, the model has conceptual flaws and no clear methodology for its construction. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to amend the model to address these flaws, and develop a clear methodology by using tuberculosis in South Africa as a worked example. An amended model was constructed to represent total DALYs as the product of DALYs per person and absolute burden of disease. These figures were calculated for all countries from WHO datasets. The lowest figures achieved by any country were assumed to represent 'unavertable with existing interventions' if extrapolated to South Africa. The ratio of 'cost per patient treated' (adjusted for purchasing power and outcome weighted) between South Africa and the best country was used to calculate the 'avertable with improved efficiency section'. Finally, 'avertable with existing but non-cost-effective interventions' was calculated using Disease Control Priorities Project efficacy data, and the ratio between the best intervention and South Africa's current intervention, irrespective of cost. The amended model shows that South Africa has a tuberculosis burden of 1,009,837.3 DALYs; 0.009% of DALYs are unavertable with existing interventions and 96.3% of DALYs could be averted with improvements in efficiency. Of the remaining DALYs, a further 56.9% could be averted with existing but non

  19. Social stress in tree shrews as an animal model of depression: an example of a behavioral model of a CNS disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Eberhard

    2005-03-01

    Animal models are invaluable in preclinical research on human psychopathology. Valid animal models to study the pathophysiology of depression and specific biological and behavioral responses to antidepressant drug treatments are of prime interest. In order to improve our knowledge of the causal mechanisms of stress-related disorders such as depression, we need animal models that mirror the situation seen in patients. One promising model is the chronic psychosocial stress paradigm in male tree shrews. Coexistence of two males in visual and olfactory contact leads to a stable dominant/subordinate relationship, with the subordinates showing obvious changes in behavioral, neuroendocrine, and central nervous activity that are similar to the signs and symptoms observed during episodes of depression in patients. To discover whether this model, besides its "face validity" for depression, also has "predictive validity," we treated subordinate animals with the tricyclic antidepressant clomipramine and found a time-dependent recovery of both endocrine function and normal behavior. In contrast, the anxiolytic diazepam was ineffective. Chronic psychosocial stress in male tree shrews significantly decreased hippocampal volume and the proliferation rate of the granule precursor cells in the dentate gyrus. These stress-induced changes can be prevented by treating the animals with clomipramine, tianeptine, or the selective neurokinin receptor antagonist L-760,735. In addition to its apparent face and predictive validity, the tree shrew model also has a "molecular validity" due to the degradation routes of psychotropic compounds and gene sequences of receptors are very similar to those in humans. Although further research is required to validate this model fully, it provides an adequate and interesting non-rodent experimental paradigm for preclinical research on depression.

  20. THE APPLICATION OF TYPOLOGY METHOD IN HISTORICAL BUILDING INFORMATION MODELLING (HBIM TAKING THE INFORMATION SURVEYING AND MAPPING OF JIAYUGUAN FORTRESS TOWN AS AN EXAMPLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Y. Li

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available With the promotion of fine degree of the heritage building surveying and mapping, building information modelling technology(BIM begins to be used in surveying and mapping, renovation, recording and research of heritage building, called historical building information modelling(HBIM. The hierarchical frameworks of parametric component library of BIM, belonging to the same type with the same parameters, has the same internal logic with archaeological typology which is more and more popular in the age identification of ancient buildings. Compared with the common materials, 2D drawings and photos, typology with HBIM has two advantages — (1 comprehensive building information both in collection and representation and (2 uniform and reasonable classification criteria This paper will take the information surveying and mapping of Jiayuguan Fortress Town as an example to introduce the field work method of information surveying and mapping based on HBIM technology and the construction of Revit family library.And then in order to prove the feasibility and advantage of HBIM technology used in typology method, this paper will identify the age of Guanghua gate tower, Rouyuan gate tower, Wenchang pavilion and the theater building of Jiayuguan Fortress Town with HBIM technology and typology method.

  1. The Application of Typology Method in Historical Building Information Modelling (hbim) Taking the Information Surveying and Mapping of Jiayuguan Fortress Town as AN Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D. Y.; Li, K.; Wu, C.

    2017-08-01

    With the promotion of fine degree of the heritage building surveying and mapping, building information modelling technology(BIM) begins to be used in surveying and mapping, renovation, recording and research of heritage building, called historical building information modelling(HBIM). The hierarchical frameworks of parametric component library of BIM, belonging to the same type with the same parameters, has the same internal logic with archaeological typology which is more and more popular in the age identification of ancient buildings. Compared with the common materials, 2D drawings and photos, typology with HBIM has two advantages — (1) comprehensive building information both in collection and representation and (2) uniform and reasonable classification criteria This paper will take the information surveying and mapping of Jiayuguan Fortress Town as an example to introduce the field work method of information surveying and mapping based on HBIM technology and the construction of Revit family library.And then in order to prove the feasibility and advantage of HBIM technology used in typology method, this paper will identify the age of Guanghua gate tower, Rouyuan gate tower, Wenchang pavilion and the theater building of Jiayuguan Fortress Town with HBIM technology and typology method.

  2. Architectural Modelling of Alternatives for Verification of New Interventions on the Example of the Romanesque Palace at Spiš Castle in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregorová, Jana; Kalesný, František; Polomová, Beata; Vojteková, Eva

    2017-10-01

    The article presents the results of the first phase of the research project SK-VEGA 1/0951/16 on using transparent and translucent structures in historical buildings. The team of researchers from the Faculty of Architecture SUT Bratislava introduces possibilities of using lightweight roofs on the model example of a dominant medieval ruin (Romanesque Palace, Spiš Castle, UNESCO site). Architectural 3D-modelling of alternatives gains new methodical importance in conditions, when in real practice only safeguarding conservation approaches are preferred. Research based on design serves as a tool for decision-making on further restoration approaches to a specific cultural heritage object. The selected Romanesque Palace of the Spiš Castle has passed through many structural periods. The interior doesn’t exist and the perimeter walls create a raised landscape landmark. Romanesque, gothic and renaissance periods were identifiable. It would be possible to reconstruct these periods partially hypothetically on the basis of saved archive materials. Inner structures and the roofing of the palace were in individual historical periods changed. Exact frame models of a new roofing were created on the principle of hypothetical reconstruction: from the indication of the medieval form, renaissance form until contemporary new forms respecting the present day horizontal palace’s topping. The aim of the first stage of the research was to present a few architectural alternatives of the roof structure refilling according to the given cultural heritage determinants and structural possibilities. We introduce 12 solutions in graphic and text, which present architectural models of a new roofing, covering the interior by transparent structure based on glass panels and translucent structures based on a textile membrane. We achieve a new space for new functional use of the palace by means of various ways of physical enclosing. On the other side, we work with alternatives of the perimeter wall

  3. Solid modeling techniques to build 3D finite element models of volcanic systems: An example from the Rabaul Caldera system, Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronchin, Erika; Masterlark, Timothy; Molist, Joan Martí; Saunders, Steve; Tao, Wei

    2013-03-01

    Simulating the deformation of active volcanoes is challenging due to inherent mechanical complexities associated with heterogeneous distributions of rheologic properties and irregular geometries associated with the topography and bathymetry. From geologic and tomographic studies we know that geologic bodies naturally have complex 3D shapes. Finite element models (FEMs) are capable of simulating the pressurization of magma intrusions into mechanical domains with arbitrary geometric and geologic complexity. We construct FEMs comprising pressurization (due to magma intrusion) within an assemblage of 3D parts having common mechanical properties for Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea. We use information of material properties distributed on discrete points mainly deduced from topography, geology, seismicity, and tomography of Rabaul Caldera to first create contours of each part and successively to generate each 3D part shape by lofting the volume through the contours. The implementation of Abaqus CAE with Python scripts allows for automated execution of hundreds of commands necessary for the construction of the parts having substantial geometric complexity. The lofted solids are then assembled to form the composite model of Rabaul Caldera, having a geometrically complex loading configuration and distribution of rheologic properties. Comparison between predicted and observed deformation led us to identify multiple deformation sources (0.74 MPa change in pressure in the magma chamber and 0.17 m slip along the ring fault) responsible for the displacements measured at Matupit Island between August 1992 and August 1993.

  4. Geomatic 3d Modeling of a Statue (also) for Structural Analysis and Risk Evaluation: the Example of San Giovannino Martelli in Florence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spangher, A.; Visintini, D.; Tucci, G.; Bonora, V.

    2017-05-01

    This work has been developed among the researches of a PhD thesis in Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture of the University of Udine in cooperation with the GECO Laboratory of the University of Florence. It focuses on the interaction between Geomatics and Structural Analysis, both applied to cultural heritage, and expressly to artefacts and structures in stone materials, like the case study of this paper, the marble statue called "San Giovannino Martelli" (Saint John the Baptist) conserved in Florence. At the beginning, some interesting examples of surveying and structural analyses on statues are reported, in order to remind the complementary tasks and requirements of geomatics and structural analysis. Current laser scanning systems can accurately survey the geometry of a statue or any cultural heritage artefact, essential to understand their structural behaviour and resilience capability. Afterwards, following the few Italian regulations in this field, the possible risks of museum goods are described: topics of this part are more familiar for structural engineers as object classification, seismic reactions, damage mechanisms, possible movements (adherent, slipping and oscillation), dynamic domains, anyway necessary steps to evaluate the risk and so to define eventual interventions. The artistic description of the statue, its debated attribution to Donatello or/and to Desiderio da Settignano and its history is later recalled, remembering that the surveying has been done for the idea to 3D print a replica and to place it in the original place. Having used a close range laser scanner, the obtained 3D model has an impressive geometrical Level of Detail (LoD), whose geometric features are explained in the paper, underlying that such extremely detailed mesh is directly given as output from the laser scanner software. The model simplifications by four decimation are therefore explained and also changes to geometry, like shifts on centre of the mass or

  5. Regression analysis by example

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Samprit

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Fourth Edition: ""This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable."" -Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded

  6. A Study of Problems and Responses in the Development of Dual-Language Education Models in Tibetan Regions: Taking Xiahe County in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongzhi, Long

    2017-01-01

    Dual-language education models are theoretical and practical systems formed through the process of dual-language education and centered on study and teaching. The language environment is the basis for developing and reforming dual-language education models. The author takes Xiahe County in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture as an example and…

  7. Some Examples of Identification with Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Sjöberg, Jonas

    1994-01-01

    In this report some examples on system identification of non-linear systems with neural networks are presented. The systems being identified all have different kinds of non-linearities, more or less known. The examples in this paper show that these non-linearities can be successfully modeled by non-linear models based on neural networks.

  8. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example

    CERN Document Server

    Bisgaard, Soren

    2011-01-01

    An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in

  9. Code query by example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaucouleur, Sebastien

    2011-02-01

    We introduce code query by example for customisation of evolvable software products in general and of enterprise resource planning systems (ERPs) in particular. The concept is based on an initial empirical study on practices around ERP systems. We motivate our design choices based on those empirical results, and we show how the proposed solution helps with respect to the infamous upgrade problem: the conflict between the need for customisation and the need for upgrade of ERP systems. We further show how code query by example can be used as a form of lightweight static analysis, to detect automatically potential defects in large software products. Code query by example as a form of lightweight static analysis is particularly interesting in the context of ERP systems: it is often the case that programmers working in this field are not computer science specialists but more of domain experts. Hence, they require a simple language to express custom rules.

  10. Standard model parameters and the search for new physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1988-04-01

    In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs

  11. Projector Method: theory and examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, E.D.

    1985-01-01

    The Projector Method technique for numerically analyzing lattice gauge theories was developed to take advantage of certain simplifying features of gauge theory models. Starting from a very general notion of what the Projector Method is, the techniques are applied to several model problems. After these examples have traced the development of the actual algorithm from the general principles of the Projector Method, a direct comparison between the Projector and the Euclidean Monte Carlo is made, followed by a discussion of the application to Periodic Quantum Electrodynamics in two and three spatial dimensions. Some methods for improving the efficiency of the Projector in various circumstances are outlined. 10 refs., 7 figs

  12. Maple by example

    CERN Document Server

    Abell, Martha L

    2005-01-01

    Maple by Example, Third Edition, is a reference/text with CD for beginning and experienced students, professional engineers, and other Maple users. This new edition has been updated to be compatible with the most recent release of the Maple software. Coverage includes built-in Maple commands used in courses and practices that involve calculus, linear algebra, business mathematics, ordinary and partial differential equations, numerical methods, graphics and more. The CD-ROM provides updated Maple input and all text from the book.* Updated coverage of Maple features and functions * Backwards compatible for all versions* New applications from a variety of fields, including biology, physics and engineering* Expanded topics with many additional examples

  13. Neutrosophic Examples in Physics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Yuhua

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Neutrosophy can be widely applied in physics and the like. For example, one of the reasons for 2011 Nobel Prize for physics is "for the discovery of the accelerating expansion of the universe through observations of distant supernovae", but according to neutrosophy, there exist seven or nine states of accelerating expansion and contraction and the neutrosophic state in the universe. Another two examples are "a revision to Gödel's incompleteness theorem by neutrosophy" and "six neutral (neutrosophic fundamental interactions". In addition, the "partial and temporary unified theory so far" is discussed (including "partial and temporary unified electromagnetic theory so far", "partial and temporary unified gravitational theory so far", "partial and temporary unified theory of four fundamental interactions so far", and "partial and temporary unified theory of natural science so far".

  14. The Power of Example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bülow, Anne Marie

    2013-01-01

    This paper suggests that for negotiation studies, the well-researched role of cognitive closure in decision-making should be supplemented with specific research on what sort of information is seized on as unambiguous, salient and easily processable by negotiators. A study of email negotiation is ...... is reported that suggests that negotiators seize on concrete examples as building blocks that produce immediate positive feedback and consequent utilization in establishing common ground....

  15. Examples of plasma horizons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanni, R.S.

    1975-01-01

    The concept of the plasma horizon, defined as the boundary of the region in which an infinitely thin plasma can be supported against Coulomb attraction by a magnetic field, shows that the argument of selective accretion does not rule out the existence of charged black holes embedded in a conducting plasma. A detailed account of the covariant definition of plasma horizon is given and some examples of plasma horizons are presented. 7 references

  16. Family and family education model in parish press of Great Poland in 2 Polish Republic: „Tygodnik Parafji Zbąszynskiej” example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIROSŁAW PIWOWARCZYK

    2017-10-01

    education, coherent with social teaching of catholic chuch and ideology of nationalist parties. Magazine often published articles on social pedagogy, citizenship, patriotic, religious, moral and family education in “the spirit of catholic and national values”. With great passion magazine propagated catholic model of family, specific rules of family life, patterns of family, education, wife and mother, husband and father, children, ideal of good Polish woman and house wife, ideal of good Polish man, husband and father. Specific roles and tasks were associated with them, obligations of parents towards children were also expressed. Very often articles included advises and canceling on mother-children relationship. There were attempts of creation of positive attitudes of children towards parents based on the use of examples. There were also articles stressing the meaning and significance of shared responsibility and actions of school and home in education towards child benefit. Most of the articles published in had a didactic, ideologist and moralizing character it was a tool for fulfillment of specific goals of “spiritual powers”. Despite that kind of single-tract perspective on educational issues magazine gained a wide popularity and respect within local community of Zbąszyń and its area. Presented attitude remained coherent with politically and morally (religiously educated community and simply mirrored ideas shared by the majority of citizens. There is no doubt tat it played a significant role in construction of specific cultural character of Zbąszyń in the Interwar Period and education of its citizens.

  17. Modern examples of extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lövei, Gabor L

    2013-01-01

    No species lives forever, and extinction is the ultimate fate of all living species. The fossil record indicates that a recent extinction wave affecting terrestrial vertebrates was parallel with the arrival of modern humans to areas formerly uninhabited by them. These modern instances of extinction......, by the time it has run its course, it will potentially surpass the previous five mass extinction events in the history of Earth. This article only deals with examples of extinction in the Quaternary period (from the final period of the last Ice Age, 10,000 years ago)....

  18. On the use of fractional polynomial models to assess preventive aspect of variables: An example in prevention of mortality following HIV infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Baneshi

    2013-01-01

    Conclusions: The FP model is a flexible method in detecting the predictive effect of continuous variables. This method enhances the ability to assess the predictive ability of variables and improves model performance.

  19. Energy demand modelling: pointing out alternative energy sources. The example of industry in OECD countries; Modelisation de la demande d`energie: mise en evidence des substitutions energetiques. Application au secteur industriel des pays de l`OCDE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renou, P.

    1992-02-19

    This thesis studies energy demand and alternative energy sources in OECD countries. In the first part, the principal models usually used for energy demand modelling. In the second part, the author studies the flexible functional forms (translog, generalized Leontief, generalized quadratic, Fourier) to obtain an estimation of the production function. In the third part, several examples are given, chosen in seven countries (Usa, Japan, Federal Republic of Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada). Energy systems analysis in these countries, can help to choose models and gives informations on alternative energies. 246 refs., 24 figs., 27 tabs.

  20. Performance Assessment and Translation of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models From acslX to Berkeley Madonna, MATLAB, and R Language: Oxytetracycline and Gold Nanoparticles As Case Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhoumeng; Jaberi-Douraki, Majid; He, Chunla; Jin, Shiqiang; Yang, Raymond S H; Fisher, Jeffrey W; Riviere, Jim E

    2017-07-01

    Many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for environmental chemicals, drugs, and nanomaterials have been developed to aid risk and safety assessments using acslX. However, acslX has been rendered sunset since November 2015. Alternative modeling tools and tutorials are needed for future PBPK applications. This forum article aimed to: (1) demonstrate the performance of 4 PBPK modeling software packages (acslX, Berkeley Madonna, MATLAB, and R language) tested using 2 existing models (oxytetracycline and gold nanoparticles); (2) provide a tutorial of PBPK model code conversion from acslX to Berkeley Madonna, MATLAB, and R language; (3) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each software package in the implementation of PBPK models in toxicology, and (4) share our perspective about future direction in this field. Simulation results of plasma/tissue concentrations/amounts of oxytetracycline and gold from different models were compared visually and statistically with linear regression analyses. Simulation results from the original models were correlated well with results from the recoded models, with time-concentration/amount curves nearly superimposable and determination coefficients of 0.86-1.00. Step-by-step explanations of the recoding of the models in different software programs are provided in the Supplementary Data. In summary, this article presents a tutorial of PBPK model code conversion for a small molecule and a nanoparticle among 4 software packages, and a performance comparison of these software packages in PBPK model implementation. This tutorial helps beginners learn PBPK modeling, provides suggestions for selecting a suitable tool for future projects, and may lead to the transition from acslX to alternative modeling tools. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Investigation of the photochemical changes of chlorogenic acids induced by ultraviolet light in model systems and in agricultural practice with Stevia rebaudiana cultivation as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaköse, Hande; Jaiswal, Rakesh; Deshpande, Sagar; Kuhnert, Nikolai

    2015-04-08

    Mono- and diacyl chlorogenic acids undergo photochemical trans-cis isomerization under ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. The photochemical equilibrium composition was established for eight selected derivatives. In contrast to all other dicaffeoylquinic acid derivatives, cynarin (1,3-dicaffeoylquinic acid) undergoes a [2 + 2] photochemical cycloaddition reaction, constituting a first example of Schmidt's law in a natural product family. The relevance of photochemical isomerization in agricultural practice was investigated using 120 samples of Stevia rebaudiana leave samples grown under defined cultivation conditions. Ratios of cis to trans chlorogenic acids were determined in leaf samples and correlated with climatic and harvesting conditions. The data indicate a clear correlation between the formation of cis-caffeoyl derivatives and sunshine hours prior to harvesting and illustrate the relevance of UV exposure to plant material affecting its phytochemical composition.

  2. Statistical properties of fluctuations of time series representing appearances of words in nationwide blog data and their applications: An example of modeling fluctuation scalings of nonstationary time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Hayafumi; Sano, Yukie; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    2016-11-01

    To elucidate the nontrivial empirical statistical properties of fluctuations of a typical nonsteady time series representing the appearance of words in blogs, we investigated approximately 3 ×109 Japanese blog articles over a period of six years and analyze some corresponding mathematical models. First, we introduce a solvable nonsteady extension of the random diffusion model, which can be deduced by modeling the behavior of heterogeneous random bloggers. Next, we deduce theoretical expressions for both the temporal and ensemble fluctuation scalings of this model, and demonstrate that these expressions can reproduce all empirical scalings over eight orders of magnitude. Furthermore, we show that the model can reproduce other statistical properties of time series representing the appearance of words in blogs, such as functional forms of the probability density and correlations in the total number of blogs. As an application, we quantify the abnormality of special nationwide events by measuring the fluctuation scalings of 1771 basic adjectives.

  3. How to easily replace the independent atom model - the example of bergenin, a potential anti-HIV agent of traditional Asian medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittrich, Birger; Weber, Manuela; Kalinowski, Roman; Grabowsky, Simon; Hübschle, Christian B; Luger, Peter

    2009-12-01

    Bergenin, which has been isolated from a variety of tropical plants, has several pharmacological applications in traditional Asian medicine. Its electron-density distribution was obtained from a room-temperature low-resolution X-ray data set measured with point detection making use of multipole populations from the invariom library. Two refinement models were considered. In a first step, positional parameters and ADPs were refined with fixed library multipoles (model E1). This model was suitable to be input into a second refinement of multipoles (model E2), which converged smoothly although based on Cu Kalpha room-temperature data. Quantitative results of a topological analysis of the electron density from both models were compared with Hartree-Fock and density-functional calculations. With respect to the independent atom model (IAM) more information can be extracted from invariom modelling, including the electrostatic potential and hydrogen-bond energies, which are highly useful, especially for biologically active compounds. The reliability of the applied invariom formalism was assessed by a comparison of bond-topological properties of sucrose, for which high-resolution multipole and invariom densities were available. Since a conventional X-ray diffraction experiment using basic equipment was combined with the easy-to-use invariom formalism, the procedure described here for bergenin illustrates how it can be routinely applied in pharmacological research.

  4. Development of a structure-dependent material model for complex, high-temperature environments and stresses. Example: turbine blades, turbine discs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubert, F.

    1988-01-01

    For the optimum use of new high-temperature superalloys for turbine discs and blades, it is necessary to develop new design concepts which, on the one hand, permit a quantitative allocation of the structural characteristics to the deformation behaviour and damage mechanisms and, on the other hand, take into account the real course of stress. It is planned to use PM-Udinet 700 as material for turbine discs and IN 738 LC with supplementary tests of IN 100 for turbine blades. For turbine discs, a probabilistic model is developed, for turbine blades, cooled at the interior, first a deterministic model is developed and then a probabilistic model is prepared. The concept for the development of the models is dealt with in detail. The project started in April 1987, therefore only first investigation results can be reported. (orig.) [de

  5. A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (wind speed are necessary to produce sea salt aerosol emissions in the right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

  6. Chlorophyll modulation of mixed layer thermodynamics in a mixed-layer isopycnal general circulation model - An example from Arabian Sea and Equatorial Pacific

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nakamoto, S.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Oberhuber, J.M.; Saito, H.; Muneyama, K.

    and supported by quasi-steady upwelling. Remotely sensed chlorophyll pigment concentrations from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) are used to investigate the chlorophyll modulation of ocean mixed layer thermodynamics in a bulk mixed-layer model, embedded...

  7. Assessing heat tracing experiment data sets for direct forecast of temperature evolution in subsurface models: an example of well and geophysical monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Thomas; Maria, Klepikova; Jef, Caers

    2016-04-01

    Hydrogeological inverse modeling is used for integrating data and calibrating subsurface model parameters. On one hand, deterministic approaches are relatively fast but fail to catch the uncertainty related to the spatial distribution of model parameters. On the other hand, stochastic inverse modeling is time-consuming and sampling the full high-dimensional parameter space is generally impossible. Even then, the end result is not the inverted model itself, but the forecast built from such models. In this study, we investigate a prediction-focused approach (PFA) in order to derive a direct statistical relationship between data and forecast without explicitly calibrating any models to the data. To derive this relationship, we first sample a limited number of models from the prior distribution using geostatistical methods. For each model, we then apply two forward simulations: the first corresponds to the forward model of the data (past), the second corresponds to the forward model of the forecast (future). The relationship between observed data and forecast is generally highly non-linear, depending on the complexity of the prior distribution and the differences in the two forward operators. In order to derive a useful relationship, we first reduce the dimension of the data and the forecast through principal component analysis (PCA) related techniques in order to keep the most informative part of both sets. Then, we apply canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to establish a linear relationship between data and forecast in the reduced space components. If such a relationship exists, it is possible to directly sample the posterior distribution of the forecast with a multi-Gaussian framework. In this study, we apply this methodology to forecast the evolution with time of the distribution of temperature in a control panel in an alluvial aquifer. We simulate a heat tracing experiment monitored with both well logging probes and electrical resistivity tomography. We show (1

  8. Quantification of heat and fluid flow through time by 3D modeling : an example from the Jeanne d'Arc basin, offshore eastern Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Baur, Friedemann Ulrich Maximilian

    2010-01-01

    Demand for energy is growing rapidly, causing worldwide concerns on security of supply. Petroleum systems modeling in 4 dimensions (cube + time) predicts generation, migration, and quality/quantity of accumulated hydrocarbons in reservoirs, incorporating temperature and pressure through the entire evolution of the basin. A petroleum systems model thus provides the only means to combine all physical aspects (source, trap, seal, and reservoir) and timing (charge) to reduce exploration risk and ...

  9. Solving the Problem of Building Models of Crosslinked Polymers: An Example Focussing on Validation of the Properties of Crosslinked Epoxy Resins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Stephen A.; Howlin, Brendan J; Hamerton, Ian; Baidak, Alex; Billaud, Claude; Ward, Steven

    2012-01-01

    The construction of molecular models of crosslinked polymers is an area of some difficulty and considerable interest. We report here a new method of constructing these models and validate the method by modelling three epoxy systems based on the epoxy monomers bisphenol F diglycidyl ether (BFDGE) and triglycidyl-p-amino phenol (TGAP) with the curing agent diamino diphenyl sulphone (DDS). The main emphasis of the work concerns the improvement of the techniques for the molecular simulation of these epoxies and specific attention is paid towards model construction techniques, including automated model building and prediction of glass transition temperatures (Tg). Typical models comprise some 4200–4600 atoms (ca. 120–130 monomers). In a parallel empirical study, these systems have been cast, cured and analysed by dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) to measure Tg. Results for the three epoxy systems yield good agreement with experimental Tg ranges of 200–220°C, 270–285°C and 285–290°C with corresponding simulated ranges of 210–230°C, 250–300°C, and 250–300°C respectively. PMID:22916182

  10. Solving the problem of building models of crosslinked polymers: an example focussing on validation of the properties of crosslinked epoxy resins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Stephen A; Howlin, Brendan J; Hamerton, Ian; Baidak, Alex; Billaud, Claude; Ward, Steven

    2012-01-01

    The construction of molecular models of crosslinked polymers is an area of some difficulty and considerable interest. We report here a new method of constructing these models and validate the method by modelling three epoxy systems based on the epoxy monomers bisphenol F diglycidyl ether (BFDGE) and triglycidyl-p-amino phenol (TGAP) with the curing agent diamino diphenyl sulphone (DDS). The main emphasis of the work concerns the improvement of the techniques for the molecular simulation of these epoxies and specific attention is paid towards model construction techniques, including automated model building and prediction of glass transition temperatures (T(g)). Typical models comprise some 4200-4600 atoms (ca. 120-130 monomers). In a parallel empirical study, these systems have been cast, cured and analysed by dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) to measure T(g). Results for the three epoxy systems yield good agreement with experimental T(g) ranges of 200-220°C, 270-285°C and 285-290°C with corresponding simulated ranges of 210-230°C, 250-300°C, and 250-300°C respectively.

  11. Solving the problem of building models of crosslinked polymers: an example focussing on validation of the properties of crosslinked epoxy resins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen A Hall

    Full Text Available The construction of molecular models of crosslinked polymers is an area of some difficulty and considerable interest. We report here a new method of constructing these models and validate the method by modelling three epoxy systems based on the epoxy monomers bisphenol F diglycidyl ether (BFDGE and triglycidyl-p-amino phenol (TGAP with the curing agent diamino diphenyl sulphone (DDS. The main emphasis of the work concerns the improvement of the techniques for the molecular simulation of these epoxies and specific attention is paid towards model construction techniques, including automated model building and prediction of glass transition temperatures (T(g. Typical models comprise some 4200-4600 atoms (ca. 120-130 monomers. In a parallel empirical study, these systems have been cast, cured and analysed by dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA to measure T(g. Results for the three epoxy systems yield good agreement with experimental T(g ranges of 200-220°C, 270-285°C and 285-290°C with corresponding simulated ranges of 210-230°C, 250-300°C, and 250-300°C respectively.

  12. Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Monika E.; Isaac, George A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Heckman, Ivan; Reid, Janti

    2014-01-01

    An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

  13. Examples of Dietary Supplement Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Products Drug-Nutrient Interactions and Drug-Supplement Interactions | Examples of Dietary Supplement Interactions Drug-Nutrient Interactions and Drug-Supplement Interactions | Examples of Dietary Supplement Interactions Share Print Almost half ...

  14. Multiple-scenario spatial modeling of Holocene anthropogenic land cover changes and evaluation against archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records: an example for the Dijle catchment (Belgian loess belt)

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan; Van Rompaey, Anton

    2015-04-01

    Holocene anthropogenic land cover reconstructions have recently been created at a variety of spatial scales and resolutions and using different methodologies and proxies. However, considerable discrepancies among these reconstructions, as well as their often limited levels of spatial and thematic detail and the uncertainties resulting from equifinality in proxy records, restrict the potential for application in other research fields. There is thus a need for new methodological approaches that integrate different sources of data at a high spatial resolution. This study presents the methodological framework and first results of a multiple-scenario and multi-proxy land cover allocation model that is applied to the Belgian Dijle catchment (ca. 760 km²) and aims to contribute to a better understanding of the evolution of anthropogenic land use patterns and intensity in the NW European loess area throughout the Holocene. In the first part of the model, a series of hypothetical, time-independent land cover patterns is modeled based on a multi-objective allocation algorithm, including natural vegetation, cropland and pasture, and taking into account the land's natural suitability for agricultural land use and conservative ranges of values for input parameters such as settlement density, minimum inter-settlement distance, deforestation rates, and the specialization towards arable land or pasture. This results in a few tens of thousands of land cover maps, which are assumed to cover virtually every possible anthropogenic land cover pattern for the Holocene Dijle catchment. Subsequently, to arrive at realistic land cover scenarios in the Dijle catchment for distinct cultural periods from the Neolithic onwards, the modeled scenarios are evaluated against three sources of time-differentiated, empirical data: 1. archaeological records serve to validate modeled settlement densities and patterns; 2. application of the modeled land cover maps in a pollen dispersal and deposition

  15. Improved characterization of root zone soil moisture in land surface models by assimilation of groundwater level data. An example with TerrSysMP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Zhang, Hongjuan; Kurtz, Wolfgang; Kollet, Stefan; Vereecken, Harry

    2017-04-01

    Land surface model predictions are affected by uncertainty with respect to parameters, atmospheric forcings and process representation. Therefore, constraining land surface model predictions by assimilation of soil moisture data is of great interest, using techniques like the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Soil moisture is a key variable in land surface models linking the water and energy cycles. However, various studies found that assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture content improved root zone soil moisture characterization only marginally. In addition, below densely vegetated areas measured remotely sensed soil moisture content is unreliable. In this study, we explored groundwater level data as an additional information source to be used in data assimilation to constrain root zone soil moisture characterization and land surface model predictions. In order to extract as much information as possible from groundwater level data we used the model TerrSysMP, which represents groundwater better than classical land surface models considering lateral subsurface flow, and fully coupled interactions between the vadose zone and groundwater. The assimilation of groundwater level data in integrated hydrological models like TerrSysMP is challenging. If groundwater level data are assimilated in terms of pressure information and used to update pressure in the vadose zone and aquifer, unrealistic updates may be generated in the upper vadose zone during (very) dry conditions as probability density functions of pressure are highly skewed. On the other hand, if groundwater level data are assimilated in terms of soil moisture values (equal to porosity in the aquifer) and used to update soil moisture in the vadose zone, under specific conditions which we will detail in the presentation updating also does not work well. We tested different data assimilation strategies in synthetic experiments and found that assimilating groundwater level data in terms of pressure, but updating model

  16. Statics learning from engineering examples

    CERN Document Server

    Emri, Igor

    2016-01-01

    This textbook introduces and explains the basic concepts on which statics is based utilizing real engineering examples. The authors emphasize the learning process by showing a real problem, analyzing it, simplifying it, and developing a way to solve it. This feature teaches students intuitive thinking in solving real engineering problems using the fundamentals of Newton’s laws. This book also: · Stresses representation of physical reality in ways that allow students to solve problems and obtain meaningful results · Emphasizes identification of important features of the structure that should be included in a model and which features may be omitted · Facilitates students' understanding and mastery of the "flow of thinking" practiced by professional engineers.

  17. Predicting the oral pharmacokinetic profiles of multiple-unit (pellet) dosage forms using a modeling and simulation approach coupled with biorelevant dissolution testing: case example diclofenac sodium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambayashi, Atsushi; Blume, Henning; Dressman, Jennifer B

    2014-07-01

    The objective of this research was to characterize the dissolution profile of a poorly soluble drug, diclofenac, from a commercially available multiple-unit enteric coated dosage form, Diclo-Puren® capsules, and to develop a predictive model for its oral pharmacokinetic profile. The paddle method was used to obtain the dissolution profiles of this dosage form in biorelevant media, with the exposure to simulated gastric conditions being varied in order to simulate the gastric emptying behavior of pellets. A modified Noyes-Whitney theory was subsequently fitted to the dissolution data. A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for multiple-unit dosage forms was designed using STELLA® software and coupled with the biorelevant dissolution profiles in order to simulate the plasma concentration profiles of diclofenac from Diclo-Puren® capsule in both the fasted and fed state in humans. Gastric emptying kinetics relevant to multiple-units pellets were incorporated into the PBPK model by setting up a virtual patient population to account for physiological variations in emptying kinetics. Using in vitro biorelevant dissolution coupled with in silico PBPK modeling and simulation it was possible to predict the plasma profile of this multiple-unit formulation of diclofenac after oral administration in both the fasted and fed state. This approach might be useful to predict variability in the plasma profiles for other drugs housed in multiple-unit dosage forms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Calibration of modelled mixing patterns in loess grain-size distributions: an example from the north-eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriend, M.G.A.; Prins, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    Genetically meaningful decomposition (unmixing) of sediment grain-size distributions is accomplished with the end-member modelling algorithm. Unmixing of the loess grain-size distributions of a Late Quaternary loess-palaeosol succession from the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau indicates that the loess

  19. Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods : the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and

  20. A stochastic bioenergetics model based approach to translating large river flow and temperature in to fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Dey, Rima; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.

    2015-01-01

    In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

  1. Lipophilic penetration enhancers and their impact to the bilayer structure of stratum corneum lipid model membranes: neutron diffraction studies based on the example oleic acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelbrecht, Tanja N; Schroeter, Annett; Hauss, Thomas; Neubert, Reinhard H H

    2011-12-01

    The present study analyzes the effect of the lipophilic penetration enhancer oleic acid on the bilayer structure of stratum corneum (SC) lipid model membranes based on Ceramide AP by using the neutron diffraction technique. Our results indicate the formation of a single lamellar phase in the presence of oleic acid under the chosen experimental conditions; a separated fluid-like oleic acid-rich phase was not detected in the present study. By comparing the internal membrane structure received from Fourier synthesis with the model system lacking oleic acid, considerable structural changes in terms of impairment of the lamellar order were found after incorporation of the penetration enhancer into the bilayers. In addition, by using specifically deuterated oleic acid we were able to prove the integration of the enhancer molecules into the model bilayers and moreover, to determine the exact position of oleic acid inside the SC lipid model membrane. From the present results we conclude a strong perturbation of lamellar SC lipid arrangement due to the intercalated penetration enhancer which can account for the promoting effects on drug penetration across the SC known for oleic acid. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A method for the stochastic modeling of karstic systems accounting for geophysical data: an example of application in the region of Tulum, Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuilleumier, C.; Borghi, A.; Renard, P.; Ottowitz, D.; Schiller, A.; Supper, R.; Cornaton, F.

    2013-05-01

    The eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, contains one of the most developed karst systems in the world. This natural wonder is undergoing increasing pollution threat due to rapid economic development in the region of Tulum, together with a lack of wastewater treatment facilities. A preliminary numerical model has been developed to assess the vulnerability of the resource. Maps of explored caves have been completed using data from two airborne geophysical campaigns. These electromagnetic measurements allow for the mapping of unexplored karstic conduits. The completion of the network map is achieved through a stochastic pseudo-genetic karst simulator, previously developed but adapted as part of this study to account for the geophysical data. Together with the cave mapping by speleologists, the simulated networks are integrated into the finite-element flow-model mesh as pipe networks where turbulent flow is modeled. The calibration of the karstic network parameters (density, radius of the conduits) is conducted through a comparison with measured piezometric levels. Although the proposed model shows great uncertainty, it reproduces realistically the heterogeneous flow of the aquifer. Simulated velocities in conduits are greater than 1 cm s-1, suggesting that the reinjection of Tulum wastewater constitutes a pollution risk for the nearby ecosystems.

  3. Developing the Model of "Pedagogical Art Communication" Using Social Phenomenological Analysis: An Introduction to a Research Method and an Example for Its Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Fabian

    2016-01-01

    Social phenomenological analysis is presented as a research method for museum and art education. After explaining its methodological background, it is shown how this method has been applied in a study of gallery talks or guided tours in art museums: Analyzing the situation by description and interpretation, a model for understanding gallery talks…

  4. Analysis of the implementation of a personalized care model in diabetes mellitus as an example of chronic disease with information and communication technology support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Martínez, N; Segú, J L; Vázquez-Castro, J; Brosa, M; Bohigas, L; Comellas, M J; Kalfhaus, L

    2017-04-01

    Diabetes mellitus affects 13.8% of the adult population in Spain, representing some 8.2% of total Spanish health spending, which may be reduced by optimizing treatment and disease monitoring. Areas covered: This perspective article aims to evaluate the possible clinical and economic outcomes of implementing a theoretical personalized care model in diabetes supported by information and communications technology in Spain vs. conventional care. Moreover, we assessed the value of emminens® eConecta, a solution designed to support the operational implementation of this model, which enables the connection and participation of patients and health professionals, facilitates patient education, decision-making, access to information, and data analysis. We carried out a review of the available evidence, consultations with experts and a clinical and cost estimation. Expert commentary: The experts consulted considered that the proposed model is consistent with Spanish strategies on chronicity, supports the management of chronicity/diabetes, and may improve the most important aspects of disease management. In the literature, this type of care models improved or provided equal disease control compared with conventional care, potentiated self-management strategies and reduced the high use of resources. Cost estimation showed a reduction of -12% in total direct costs and around -34% in the costs of outpatient visits.

  5. Linking land cover and species distribution models to project potential ranges of malaria vectors: an example using Anopheles arabiensis in Sudan and Upper Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuller Douglas O

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Anopheles arabiensis is a particularly opportunistic feeder and efficient vector of Plasmodium falciparum in Africa and may invade areas outside its normal range, including areas separated by expanses of barren desert. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how spatial models can project future irrigated cropland and potential, new suitable habitat for vectors such as An. arabiensis. Methods Two different but complementary spatial models were linked to demonstrate their synergy for assessing re-invasion potential of An. arabiensis into Upper Egypt as a function of irrigated cropland expansion by 2050. The first model (The Land Change Modeler was used to simulate changes in irrigated cropland using a Markov Chain approach, while the second model (MaxEnt uses species occurrence points, land cover and other environmental layers to project probability of species presence. Two basic change scenarios were analysed, one involving a more conservative business-as-usual (BAU assumption and second with a high probability of desert-to-cropland transition (Green Nile to assess a broad range of potential outcomes by 2050. Results The results reveal a difference of 82,000 sq km in potential An. arabiensis range between the BAU and Green Nile scenarios. The BAU scenario revealed a highly fragmented set of small, potential habitat patches separated by relatively large distances (maximum distance = 64.02 km, mean = 12.72 km, SD = 9.92, while the Green Nile scenario produced a landscape characterized by large patches separated by relatively shorter gaps (maximum distance = 49.38, km, mean = 4.51 km, SD = 7.89 that may be bridged by the vector. Conclusions This study provides a first demonstration of how land change and species distribution models may be linked to project potential changes in vector habitat distribution and invasion potential. While gaps between potential habitat patches remained large in the

  6. Linking land cover and species distribution models to project potential ranges of malaria vectors: an example using Anopheles arabiensis in Sudan and Upper Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Douglas O; Parenti, Michael S; Hassan, Ali N; Beier, John C

    2012-08-06

    Anopheles arabiensis is a particularly opportunistic feeder and efficient vector of Plasmodium falciparum in Africa and may invade areas outside its normal range, including areas separated by expanses of barren desert. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how spatial models can project future irrigated cropland and potential, new suitable habitat for vectors such as An. arabiensis. Two different but complementary spatial models were linked to demonstrate their synergy for assessing re-invasion potential of An. arabiensis into Upper Egypt as a function of irrigated cropland expansion by 2050. The first model (The Land Change Modeler) was used to simulate changes in irrigated cropland using a Markov Chain approach, while the second model (MaxEnt) uses species occurrence points, land cover and other environmental layers to project probability of species presence. Two basic change scenarios were analysed, one involving a more conservative business-as-usual (BAU) assumption and second with a high probability of desert-to-cropland transition (Green Nile) to assess a broad range of potential outcomes by 2050. The results reveal a difference of 82,000 sq km in potential An. arabiensis range between the BAU and Green Nile scenarios. The BAU scenario revealed a highly fragmented set of small, potential habitat patches separated by relatively large distances (maximum distance = 64.02 km, mean = 12.72 km, SD = 9.92), while the Green Nile scenario produced a landscape characterized by large patches separated by relatively shorter gaps (maximum distance = 49.38, km, mean = 4.51 km, SD = 7.89) that may be bridged by the vector. This study provides a first demonstration of how land change and species distribution models may be linked to project potential changes in vector habitat distribution and invasion potential. While gaps between potential habitat patches remained large in the Green Nile scenario, the models reveal large areas of future

  7. Utility of population models to reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in ecological risk assessments of pesticides: an example based on acute mortality data for daphnids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Niklas; Stark, John D

    2012-04-01

    Traditionally, ecological risk assessments (ERA) of pesticides have been based on risk ratios, where the predicted concentration of the chemical is compared to the concentration that causes biological effects. The concentration that causes biological effect is mostly determined from laboratory experiments using endpoints on the level of the individual (e.g., mortality and reproduction). However, the protection goals are mostly defined at the population level. To deal with the uncertainty in the necessary extrapolations, safety factors are used. Major disadvantages with this simplified approach is that it is difficult to relate a risk ratio to the environmental protection goals, and that the use of fixed safety factors can result in over- as well as underprotective assessments. To reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in ERA, it has been argued that population models should be used more frequently. In the present study, we have used matrix population models for 3 daphnid species (Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and D. pulex) to reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in the ERA of a pesticide (spinosad). The survival rates in the models were reduced in accordance with data from traditional acute mortality tests. As no data on reproductive effects were available, the conservative assumption that no reproduction occurred during the exposure period was made. The models were used to calculate the minimum population size and the time to recovery. These endpoints can be related to the European Union (EU) protection goals for aquatic ecosystems in the vicinity of agricultural fields, which state that reversible population level effects are acceptable if there is recovery within an acceptable (undefined) time frame. The results of the population models were compared to the acceptable (according to EU documents) toxicity exposure ratio (TER) that was based on the same data. At the acceptable TER, which was based on the most sensitive species (C. dubia

  8. Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems: An Example Based on the NGA-West 2 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameur, Mourad; Derras, Boumédiène; Zendagui, Djawed

    2017-12-01

    Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are used here to obtain the robust ground motion prediction model (GMPM). Avoiding a priori functional form, ANFIS provides fully data-driven predictive models. A large subset of the NGA-West2 database is used, including 2335 records from 580 sites and 137 earthquakes. Only shallow earthquakes and recordings corresponding to stations with measured V s30 properties are selected. Three basics input parameters are chosen: the moment magnitude (Mw), the Joyner-Boore distance (R JB) and V s30. ANFIS model output is the peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5% damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at periods from 0.01 to 4 s. A procedure similar to the random-effects approach is developed to provide between- and within-event standard deviations. The total standard deviation (SD) varies between [0.303 and 0.360] (log10 units) depending on the period. The ground motion predictions resulting from such simple three explanatory variables ANFIS models are shown to be comparable to the most recent NGA results (e.g., Boore et al., in Earthquake Spectra 30:1057-1085, 2014; Derras et al., in Earthquake Spectra 32:2027-2056, 2016). The main advantage of ANFIS compared to artificial neuronal network (ANN) is its simple and one-off topology: five layers. Our results exhibit a number of physically sound features: magnitude scaling of the distance dependency, near-fault saturation distance increasing with magnitude and amplification on soft soils. The ability to implement ANFIS model using an analytic equation and Excel is demonstrated.

  9. Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems: An Example Based on the NGA-West 2 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameur, Mourad; Derras, Boumédiène; Zendagui, Djawed

    2018-03-01

    Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are used here to obtain the robust ground motion prediction model (GMPM). Avoiding a priori functional form, ANFIS provides fully data-driven predictive models. A large subset of the NGA-West2 database is used, including 2335 records from 580 sites and 137 earthquakes. Only shallow earthquakes and recordings corresponding to stations with measured V s30 properties are selected. Three basics input parameters are chosen: the moment magnitude ( Mw), the Joyner-Boore distance ( R JB) and V s30. ANFIS model output is the peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5% damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at periods from 0.01 to 4 s. A procedure similar to the random-effects approach is developed to provide between- and within-event standard deviations. The total standard deviation (SD) varies between [0.303 and 0.360] (log10 units) depending on the period. The ground motion predictions resulting from such simple three explanatory variables ANFIS models are shown to be comparable to the most recent NGA results (e.g., Boore et al., in Earthquake Spectra 30:1057-1085, 2014; Derras et al., in Earthquake Spectra 32:2027-2056, 2016). The main advantage of ANFIS compared to artificial neuronal network (ANN) is its simple and one-off topology: five layers. Our results exhibit a number of physically sound features: magnitude scaling of the distance dependency, near-fault saturation distance increasing with magnitude and amplification on soft soils. The ability to implement ANFIS model using an analytic equation and Excel is demonstrated.

  10. Reservoir Characterization and CO2 Plume Migration Modeling Based on Bottom-hole Pressure Data: An Example from the AEP Mountaineer Geological Storage Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Kelley, Mark; Oruganti, YagnaDeepika; Bhattacharya, Indra; Spitznogle, Gary

    2014-05-01

    We present an integrated approach for formation permeability estimation, front tracking, reservoir model calibration, and plume migration modeling based on injection rate and down-hole pressure data from CO2 geologic sequestration projects. The data are taken from the 20 MW CO2 capture and storage project at American Electric Power's Mountaineer Plant in West Virginia, USA. The Mountaineer CO2 injection system consists of two injection wells - one in the Copper Ridge Dolomite formation and one in the Rose Run sandstone formation, and three deep observation wells that were operational between October 2009 and May 2011. Approximately 27000 MT and 10000 MT were injected into the Copper Ridge dolomite formation and Rose Run sandstone formation, respectively. A wealth of pressure and rate data from injection and observation wells is available covering a series of injection and pressure falloff events. The methodology developed and applied for interpreting and integrating the data during reservoir analysis and modeling from the Rose Run formation is the subject of this paper. For the analysis of transient pressure data at the injection and observation wells, the CO2 storage reservoir is conceptualized as a radial composite system, where the inner (invaded) zone consists of both supercritical CO2 and brine, and the outer (uninvaded) zone consists of undisturbed brine. Using established analytical solutions for analyzing fluid injection problems in the petroleum reservoir engineering literature, we show how the late-time pressure derivative response from both injection and observation wells will be identical - reflecting the permeability-thickness product of the undisturbed brine-filled formation. We also show how the expanding CO2 plume affects the "effective" compressibility that can be estimated by history matching injection-falloff data and how this can be used to develop a relationship between the plume radius and "effective" compressibility. This provides a novel non

  11. The power of example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liliana Gheorghian, Mariana

    2014-05-01

    beginning of the XXI century" with the participation of several schools in the country in 2009 and 2011. The papers presented were diverse and gave examples of various teaching experiences and scientific information. Topics by the teachers: The impact of tourism on the environment, Tornadoes, Natural science and environmental education in school, Air Pollution and health, Ecological education of children from primary school, The effects of electromagnetic radiation, Formation of an ecological mentality using chemistry, Why should we protect water, Environmental education, Education for the future, SOS Nature, Science in the twenty-first century, etc. Topics by students: Nature- the palace of thermal phenomena, Life depends on heat, Water Mysteries, Global Heating, The Mysterious universe, etc. In March 2013 our school hosted an interesting exchange of ideas on environmental issues between our students and those from Bulgaria, Poland and Turkey, during a symposium of the Comenius multilateral project "Conserving Nature". In order to present the results of protecting nature in their communities, two projects "Citizen" qualified in the Program Civitas in the autumn of 2013. "The Battle" continues both in nature and in classrooms, in order to preserve the environment.

  12. Estimation of Cs-137 hillslope patterns of Polesje landscapes using geo-information modeling techniques (on example of the Bryansk region)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linnik, Vitaly; Nenko, Kristina; Sokolov, Alexander; Saveliev, Anatoly

    2015-04-01

    In the result of Chernobyl disaster on 26 April 1986 many regions of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were contaminated by radionuclides. Vast areas of farmlands and woodlands were contaminated in Russia. The deposited radionuclides continue to cause concern about the possible contamination of food (in particular, mushrooms and berries). But the radioactive materials are also an ideal marker for understanding of hillslope processes in natural and seminatural landscapes. Model area chosen for the research (Opolje landscapes located in the central part of the Bryansk region) is characterized by relatively low levels of Cs-137 contamination. It just 4-33 times higher than global fallout which was equal 1,75 kBq/m2 in 1986 . According the results of air gamma survey (grid size: 100 m x100 m), which was done in 1993, it was explicitly to identify that the processes of Cs-137 lateral migration took place due to nearly fourfold increase of Cs-137 in the lower slope in comparison with the surface of the watershed during a seven-year period after Chernobyl accident. Erosion processes which define Cs-137 pattern in the lowest part of hillslope depend upon such parameters as slope, hillslope forms, vegetation, land use and the roads, which intersect a streamline. GIS-modeling of Cs-137 was carried out in SAGA software. The spatial modeling resolution was equal 100x100 m according the air-gamma data. SRTM data was resampled to a grid 100x100 m. Erosion rates were the highest on the slope of southern exposure. There the processes of lateral migration are more intensive and observed within the entire slope. The main contribution in receipt of Cs-137 to floodplain on the northern slopes comes only from the lower part of the slope and gullies and ravines network. We have used geo-information modeling techniques and some kind of interpolation and statistical models to predict or understand forming of Cs-137 spatial patterns and trends in soil erosion. To study the role of some

  13. Modeling the Impact of Integration Processes on the Development of International Tourism (on the Example of the Central and Eastern European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yemets Mariia S.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The publication is aimed at identifying and studying the factors of influence on the development of international tourism in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE in the context of integration. The authors also search for ways to compile a system of indicators of integration in terms of tourism along with building mathematical models of the impact of integration processes on the development of international tourism. The study has identified the indicators of integration, which positively impact the value of the resulting variable, although not all built models have a high significance. In general, the publication confirms the hypothesis that factors, associated with integration processes, do influence on the development of tourism in the countries of the region, but the nature of such influence is not always unambiguous.

  14. Projecting range limits with coupled thermal tolerance - climate change models: an example based on gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus along the U.S. east coast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Hare

    Full Text Available We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65% to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.

  15. Projecting range limits with coupled thermal tolerance - climate change models: an example based on gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. east coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Jonathan A; Wuenschel, Mark J; Kimball, Matthew E

    2012-01-01

    We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.

  16. On the Use of Fractional Polynomial Models to Assess Preventive Aspect of Variables: An Example in Prevention of Mortality Following HIV Infection

    OpenAIRE

    Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Nakhaee, Fatemeh; Law, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Background: Identification of disease risk factors can help in the prevention of diseases. In assessing the predictive value of continuous variables, a routine procedure is to categorize the factors. This yield to inability to detect non-linear relationship, if exist. Multivariate fractional polynomial (MFP) modeling is a flexible method to reveal non-linear associations. We aim to demonstrate the impact of choice of risk function on the significance of variables. Methods: We selected 6508...

  17. Vector Autoregressive Models and Granger Causality in Time Series Analysis in Nursing Research: Dynamic Changes Among Vital Signs Prior to Cardiorespiratory Instability Events as an Example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Eliezer; Hravnak, Marilyn; Sereika, Susan M

    Patients undergoing continuous vital sign monitoring (heart rate [HR], respiratory rate [RR], pulse oximetry [SpO2]) in real time display interrelated vital sign changes during situations of physiological stress. Patterns in this physiological cross-talk could portend impending cardiorespiratory instability (CRI). Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling with Granger causality tests is one of the most flexible ways to elucidate underlying causal mechanisms in time series data. The purpose of this article is to illustrate the development of patient-specific VAR models using vital sign time series data in a sample of acutely ill, monitored, step-down unit patients and determine their Granger causal dynamics prior to onset of an incident CRI. CRI was defined as vital signs beyond stipulated normality thresholds (HR = 40-140/minute, RR = 8-36/minute, SpO2 change in RR caused change in HR (21%; i.e., RR changed before HR changed) more often than change in HR causing change in RR (15%). Similarly, changes in RR caused changes in SpO2 (15%) more often than changes in SpO2 caused changes in RR (9%). For HR and SpO2, changes in HR causing changes in SpO2 and changes in SpO2 causing changes in HR occurred with equal frequency (18%). Within this sample of acutely ill patients who experienced a CRI event, VAR modeling indicated that RR changes tend to occur before changes in HR and SpO2. These findings suggest that contextual assessment of RR changes as the earliest sign of CRI is warranted. Use of VAR modeling may be helpful in other nursing research applications based on time series data.

  18. Translating product specifications into environmental evidence - Carbon Footprint Models explained on the example of a netbook, a consumer laptop and an ultrabook

    OpenAIRE

    Schischke, Karsten; Nissen, Nils; Lang, Klaus-Dieter

    2014-01-01

    In a complex industry such as the electronics sector Life Cycle Assessments are still challenging. This holds true in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises with rarely any knowledge in LCA and limited resources to undertake comprehensive LCA studies. This paper describes the approach of the FP7 funded project LCA to go, which developed simplified online tools for SMEs to assess products from a selection of sectors on their own. The webtools build on embedded LCA data models and a ...

  19. Chlorophyll modulation of mixed layer thermodynamics in a mixed-layer isopycnal General Circulation Model - An example from Arabian Sea and equatorial Pacific

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nakamoto, S.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Oberhuber, J.M.; Saito, H.; Muneyama, K.; Frouin, R.

    is influenced not only by local vertical mixing but also by horizontal con- vergence of mass and heat, a mixed layer model must consider both full dynamics due to the use of primitive equations and a parameterization for the vertical mass transfer and related... is dynamically determined without such a con- straint. Instantaneous atmospheric elds are inter- polated from the monthly means. Monthly mean climatology of chlorophyll pigment concentrations were obtained from the Coastal Zone Color Scan- ner (CZCS) from...

  20. Patterns of malaria-related hospital admissions and mortality among Malawian children: an example of spatial modelling of hospital register data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleinschmidt Immo

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a leading cause of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality among children in Africa, yet, few studies have described the spatial distribution of the two outcomes. Here spatial regression models were applied, aimed at quantifying spatial variation and risk factors associated with malaria hospitalization and in-hospital mortality. Methods Paediatric ward register data from Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003 were used, as a case study. Two spatial models were developed. The first was a Poisson model applied to analyse hospitalization and minimum mortality rates, with age and sex as covariates. The second was a logistic model applied to individual level data to analyse case-fatality rate, adjusting for individual covariates. Results and conclusion Rates of malaria hospitalization and in-hospital mortality decreased with age. Case fatality rate was associated with distance, age, wet season and increased if the patient was referred to the hospital. Furthermore, death rate was high on first day, followed by relatively low rate as length of hospital stay increased. Both outcomes showed substantial spatial heterogeneity, which may be attributed to the varying determinants of malaria risk, health services availability and accessibility, and health seeking behaviour. The increased risk of mortality of children referred from primary health facilities may imply inadequate care being available at the referring facility, or the referring facility are referring the more severe cases which are expected to have a higher case fatality rate. Improved prognosis as the length of hospital stay increased suggest that appropriate care when available can save lives. Reducing malaria burden may require integrated strategies encompassing availability of adequate care at primary facilities, introducing home or community case management as well as encouraging early referral, and reinforcing interventions to interrupt malaria

  1. The global rock art database: developing a rock art reference model for the RADB system using the CIDOC CRM and Australian heritage examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haubt, R. A.

    2015-08-01

    The Rock Art Database (RADB) is a virtual organisation that aims to build a global rock art community. It brings together rock art enthusiasts and professionals from around the world in one centralized location through the deployed publicly available RADB Management System. This online platform allows users to share, manage and discuss rock art information and offers a new look at rock art data through the use of new technologies in rich media formats. Full access to the growing platform is currently only available for a selected group of users but it already links over 200 rock art projects around the globe. This paper forms a part of the larger Rock Art Database (RADB) project. It discusses the design stage of the RADB System and the development of a conceptual RADB Reference Model (RARM) that is used to inform the design of the Rock Art Database Management System. It examines the success and failure of international and national systems and uses the Australian heritage sector and Australian rock art as a test model to develop a method for the RADB System design. The system aims to help improve rock art management by introducing the CIDOC CRM in conjunction with a rock art specific domain model. It seeks to improve data compatibility and data sharing to help with the integration of a variety of resources to create the global Rock Art Database Management System.

  2. Mathematical models application for mapping soils spatial distribution on the example of the farm from the North of Udmurt Republic of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokuchaev, P. M.; Meshalkina, J. L.; Yaroslavtsev, A. M.

    2018-01-01

    Comparative analysis of soils geospatial modeling using multinomial logistic regression, decision trees, random forest, regression trees and support vector machines algorithms was conducted. The visual interpretation of the digital maps obtained and their comparison with the existing map, as well as the quantitative assessment of the individual soil groups detection overall accuracy and of the models kappa showed that multiple logistic regression, support vector method, and random forest models application with spatial prediction of the conditional soil groups distribution can be reliably used for mapping of the study area. It has shown the most accurate detection for sod-podzolics soils (Phaeozems Albic) lightly eroded and moderately eroded soils. In second place, according to the mean overall accuracy of the prediction, there are sod-podzolics soils – non-eroded and warp one, as well as sod-gley soils (Umbrisols Gleyic) and alluvial soils (Fluvisols Dystric, Umbric). Heavy eroded sod-podzolics and gray forest soils (Phaeozems Albic) were detected by methods of automatic classification worst of all.

  3. Intraguild Predation Dynamics in a Lake Ecosystem Based on a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Model: The Example of Lake Kinneret (Israel).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makler-Pick, Vardit; Hipsey, Matthew R; Zohary, Tamar; Carmel, Yohay; Gal, Gideon

    2017-03-29

    The food web of Lake Kinneret contains intraguild predation (IGP). Predatory invertebrates and planktivorous fish both feed on herbivorous zooplankton, while the planktivorous fish also feed on the predatory invertebrates. In this study, a complex mechanistic hydrodynamic-ecological model, coupled to a bioenergetics-based fish population model (DYCD-FISH), was employed with the aim of revealing IGP dynamics. The results indicate that the predation pressure of predatory zooplankton on herbivorous zooplankton varies widely, depending on the season. At the time of its annual peak, it is 10-20 times higher than the fish predation pressure. When the number of fish was significantly higher, as occurs in the lake after atypical meteorological years, the effect was a shift from a bottom-up controlled ecosystem, to the top-down control of planktivorous fish and a significant reduction of predatory and herbivorous zooplankton biomass. Yet, seasonally, the decrease in predatory-zooplankton biomass was followed by a decrease in their predation pressure on herbivorous zooplankton, leading to an increase of herbivorous zooplankton biomass to an extent similar to the base level. The analysis demonstrates the emergence of non-equilibrium IGP dynamics due to intra-annual and inter-annual changes in the physico-chemical characteristics of the lake, and suggests that IGP dynamics should be considered in food web models in order to more accurately capture mass transfer and trophic interactions.

  4. Differentiating simple and composite tectonic landscapes using numerical fault slip modeling with an example from the south central Alborz Mountains, Iran

    KAUST Repository

    Landgraf, A.

    2013-09-01

    The tectonically driven growth of mountains reflects the characteristics of the underlying fault systems and the applied tectonic forces. Over time, fault networks might be relatively static, but stress conditions could change and result in variations in fault slip orientation. Such a tectonic landscape would transition from a “simple” to a “composite” state: the topography of simple landscapes is correlated with a single set of tectonic boundary conditions, while composite landscapes contain inherited topography due to earlier deformation under different boundary conditions. We use fault interaction modeling to compare vertical displacement fields with topographic metrics to differentiate the two types of landscapes. By successively rotating the axis of maximum horizontal stress, we produce a suite of vertical displacement fields for comparison with real landscapes. We apply this model to a transpressional duplex in the south central Alborz Mountains of Iran, where NW oriented compression was superseded by neotectonic NE compression. The consistency between the modeled displacement field and real landforms indicates that the duplex topography is mostly compatible with the modern boundary conditions, but might include a small remnant from the earlier deformation phase. Our approach is applicable for various tectonic settings and represents an approach to identify the changing boundary conditions that produce composite landscapes. It may be particularly useful for identifying changes that occurred in regions where river profiles may no longer record a signal of the change or where the spatial pattern of uplift is complex.

  5. Controllable Elastohydrodynamics With Examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Ilmar; Haugaard, Martin Asger

    bearings, variable impedance bearings, actively controlled bearing surface profiles or simply deformable bushes, active journal bearings with flexible sleeves, active lubricated bearings or pressurized bearings among others. The active systems composed of deformable bushes, journal bearings with flexible...... dynamic properties. The actively controlled bearing surface profiles can be generated by attaching any kind of actuator (hydraulic, electromagnetic or piezoelectric) to deformable bushes. In this paper the elastohydrodynamic model is used to investigate static and dynamic properties of a tilting......-pad journal bearing under hybrid elastohydrodynamics (open loop control) as well as controllable radial oil injection (closed loop control). The bearing dynamic coefficients are heavily influenced by the control parameters and pad compliance. Strong synergy between elastohydrodynamics and active control...

  6. Use of Anecdotal Occurrence Data in Species Distribution Models: An Example Based on the White-Nosed Coati (Nasua narica in the American Southwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James N. Stuart

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Species distributions are usually inferred from occurrence records. However, these records are prone to errors in spatial precision and reliability. Although influence of spatial errors has been fairly well studied, there is little information on impacts of poor reliability. Reliability of an occurrence record can be influenced by characteristics of the species, conditions during the observation, and observer’s knowledge. Some studies have advocated use of anecdotal data, while others have advocated more stringent evidentiary standards such as only accepting records verified by physical evidence, at least for rare or elusive species. Our goal was to evaluate the influence of occurrence records with different reliability on species distribution models (SDMs of a unique mammal, the white-nosed coati (Nasua narica in the American Southwest. We compared SDMs developed using maximum entropy analysis of combined bioclimatic and biophysical variables and based on seven subsets of occurrence records that varied in reliability and spatial precision. We found that the predicted distribution of the coati based on datasets that included anecdotal occurrence records were similar to those based on datasets that only included physical evidence. Coati distribution in the American Southwest was predicted to occur in southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona and was defined primarily by evenness of climate and Madrean woodland and chaparral land-cover types. Coati distribution patterns in this region suggest a good model for understanding the biogeographic structure of range margins. We concluded that occurrence datasets that include anecdotal records can be used to infer species distributions, providing such data are used only for easily-identifiable species and based on robust modeling methods such as maximum entropy. Use of a reliability rating system is critical for using anecdotal data.

  7. Exploring example models of cross-sector, sessional employment of pharmacists to improve medication management and pharmacy support in rural hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Amy Cw; Emmerton, Lynne M; Hattingh, Laetitia; La Caze, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Many rural hospitals in Australia are not large enough to sustain employment of a full-time pharmacist, or are unable to recruit or retain a full-time pharmacist. The absence of a pharmacist may result in hospital nurses undertaking medication-related roles outside their scope of practice. A potential solution to address rural hospitals' medication management needs is contracted part-time ('sessional') employment of a local pharmacist external to the hospital ('cross-sector'). The aim of this study was to explore the roles and experiences of pharmacists in their provision of sessional services to rural hospitals with no on-site pharmacist and explore how these roles could potentially address shortfalls in medication management in rural hospitals. A qualitative study was conducted to explore models with pharmacists who had provided sessional services to a rural hospital. A semi-structured interview guide was informed by a literature review, preliminary research and stakeholder consultation. Participants were recruited via advertisement and personal contacts. Consenting pharmacists were interviewed between August 2012 and January 2013 via telephone or Skype for 40-55 minutes. Thirteen pharmacists with previous or ongoing hospital sessional contracts in rural communities across Australia and New Zealand participated. Most commonly, the pharmacists provided weekly services to rural hospitals. All believed the sessional model was a practical solution to increase hospital access to pharmacist-mediated support and to address medication management gaps. Roles perceived to promote quality use of medicines were inpatient consultation services, medicines information/education to hospital staff, assistance with accreditation matters and system reviews, and input into pharmaceutical distribution activities. This study is the first to explore the concept of sessional rural hospital employment undertaken by pharmacists in Australia and New Zealand. Insights from participants

  8. Extending a prototype knowledge and object based image analysis model to coarser spatial resolution imagery: an example from the Missouri River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Laurence L.

    2012-01-01

    A prototype knowledge- and object-based image analysis model was developed to inventory and map least tern and piping plover habitat on the Missouri River, USA. The model has been used to inventory the state of sandbars annually for 4 segments of the Missouri River since 2006 using QuickBird imagery. Interpretation of the state of sandbars is difficult when images for the segment are acquired at different river stages and different states of vegetation phenology and canopy cover. Concurrent QuickBird and RapidEye images were classified using the model and the spatial correspondence of classes in the land cover and sandbar maps were analysed for the spatial extent of the images and at nest locations for both bird species. Omission and commission errors were low for unvegetated land cover classes used for nesting by both bird species and for land cover types with continuous vegetation cover and water. Errors were larger for land cover classes characterized by a mixture of sand and vegetation. Sandbar classification decisions are made using information on land cover class proportions and disagreement between sandbar classes was resolved using fuzzy membership possibilities. Regression analysis of area for a paired sample of 47 sandbars indicated an average positive bias, 1.15 ha, for RapidEye that did not vary with sandbar size. RapidEye has potential to reduce temporal uncertainty about least tern and piping plover habitat but would not be suitable for mapping sandbar erosion, and characterization of sandbar shapes or vegetation patches at fine spatial resolution.

  9. Extending a prototype knowledge- and object-based image analysis model to coarser spatial resolution imagery: an example from the Missouri River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Laurence L.

    2012-01-01

    A prototype knowledge- and object-based image analysis model was developed to inventory and map least tern and piping plover habitat on the Missouri River, USA. The model has been used to inventory the state of sandbars annually for 4 segments of the Missouri River since 2006 using QuickBird imagery. Interpretation of the state of sandbars is difficult when images for the segment are acquired at different river stages and different states of vegetation phenology and canopy cover. Concurrent QuickBird and RapidEye images were classified using the model and the spatial correspondence of classes in the land cover and sandbar maps were analysed for the spatial extent of the images and at nest locations for both bird species. Omission and commission errors were low for unvegetated land cover classes used for nesting by both bird species and for land cover types with continuous vegetation cover and water. Errors were larger for land cover classes characterized by a mixture of sand and vegetation. Sandbar classification decisions are made using information on land cover class proportions and disagreement between sandbar classes was resolved using fuzzy membership possibilities. Regression analysis of area for a paired sample of 47 sandbars indicated an average positive bias, 1.15 ha, for RapidEye that did not vary with sandbar size. RapidEye has potential to reduce temporal uncertainty about least tern and piping plover habitat but would not be suitable for mapping sandbar erosion, and characterization of sandbar shapes or vegetation patches at fine spatial resolution.

  10. Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Dokou, Zoi; Karatzas, George P

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Mouse Models of Genomic Syndromes as Tools for Understanding the Basis of Complex Traits: An Example with the Smith-Magenis and the Potocki-Lupski Syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmona-Mora, P; Molina, J; Encina, C.A; Walz, K

    2009-01-01

    Each human's genome is distinguished by extra and missing DNA that can be “benign” or powerfully impact everything from development to disease. In the case of genomic disorders DNA rearrangements, such as deletions or duplications, correlate with a clinical specific phenotype. The clinical presentations of genomic disorders were thought to result from altered gene copy number of physically linked dosage sensitive genes. Genomic disorders are frequent diseases (~1 per 1,000 births). Smith-Magenis syndrome (SMS) and Potocki-Lupski syndrome (PTLS) are genomic disorders, associated with a deletion and a duplication, of 3.7 Mb respectively, within chromosome 17 band p11.2. This region includes 23 genes. Both syndromes have complex and distinctive phenotypes including multiple congenital and neurobehavioral abnormalities. Human chromosome 17p11.2 is syntenic to the 32-34 cM region of murine chromosome 11. The number and order of the genes are highly conserved. In this review, we will exemplify how genomic disorders can be modeled in mice and the advantages that such models can give in the study of genomic disorders in particular and gene copy number variation (CNV) in general. The contributions of the SMS and PTLS animal models in several aspects ranging from more specific ones, as the definition of the clinical aspects of the human clinical spectrum, the identification of dosage sensitive genes related to the human syndromes, to the more general contributions as the definition of genetic locus impacting obesity and behavior and the elucidation of general mechanisms related to the pathogenesis of gene CNV are discussed. PMID:19949547

  12. Critical multi-level governance issues of integrated modelling: An example of low-water management in the Adour-Garonne basin (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzega, Pierre; Therond, Olivier; Debril, Thomas; March, Hug; Sibertin-Blanc, Christophe; Lardy, Romain; Sant'ana, Daniel

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents the experience gained related to the development of an integrated simulation model of water policy. Within this context, we analyze particular difficulties raised by the inclusion of multi-level governance that assigns the responsibility of individual or collective decision-making to a variety of actors, regarding measures of which the implementation has significant effects toward the sustainability of socio-hydrosystems. Multi-level governance procedures are compared with the potential of model-based impact assessment. Our discussion is illustrated on the basis of the exploitation of the multi-agent platform MAELIA dedicated to the simulation of social, economic and environmental impacts of low-water management in a context of climate and regulatory changes. We focus on three major decision-making processes occurring in the Adour-Garonne basin, France: (i) the participatory development of the Master Scheme for Water Planning and Management (SDAGE) under the auspices of the Water Agency; (ii) the publication of water use restrictions in situations of water scarcity; and (iii) the determination of the abstraction volumes for irrigation and their allocation. The MAELIA platform explicitly takes into account the mode of decision-making when it is framed by a procedure set beforehand, focusing on the actors' participation and on the nature and parameters of the measures to be implemented. It is observed that in some water organizations decision-making follows patterns that can be represented as rule-based actions triggered by thresholds of resource states. When decisions are resulting from individual choice, endowing virtual agents with bounded rationality allows us to reproduce (in silico) their behavior and decisions in a reliable way. However, the negotiation processes taking place during the period of time simulated by the models in arenas of collective choices are not all reproducible. Outcomes of some collective decisions are very little or

  13. Determination optimum technologists and models of selection of children on the initial stage of long-term improvement (on an example rowed on kayaks and canoe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matviyenko I.S.

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The results of introduction of pedagogical technology of selection of children are lighted up. Optimum technology and model of selection is certain on the stage of initial preparation. Expedient is bringing in of maximal amount of children of optimum age to the system of school sport. Directions of transition of the selected contingent of capable children are rotined in the system child-youth sport. Specific gravity of training time a trainer is in a position to spare teaching a rational technique rowed, to forming of base of functional preparedness.

  14. A practical guide to build de-novo assemblies for single tissues of non-model organisms: the example of a Neotropical frog

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Montero-Mendieta

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Whole genome sequencing (WGS is a very valuable resource to understand the evolutionary history of poorly known species. However, in organisms with large genomes, as most amphibians, WGS is still excessively challenging and transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq represents a cost-effective tool to explore genome-wide variability. Non-model organisms do not usually have a reference genome and the transcriptome must be assembled de-novo. We used RNA-seq to obtain the transcriptomic profile for Oreobates cruralis, a poorly known South American direct-developing frog. In total, 550,871 transcripts were assembled, corresponding to 422,999 putative genes. Of those, we identified 23,500, 37,349, 38,120 and 45,885 genes present in the Pfam, EggNOG, KEGG and GO databases, respectively. Interestingly, our results suggested that genes related to immune system and defense mechanisms are abundant in the transcriptome of O. cruralis. We also present a pipeline to assist with pre-processing, assembling, evaluating and functionally annotating a de-novo transcriptome from RNA-seq data of non-model organisms. Our pipeline guides the inexperienced user in an intuitive way through all the necessary steps to build de-novo transcriptome assemblies using readily available software and is freely available at: https://github.com/biomendi/TRANSCRIPTOME-ASSEMBLY-PIPELINE/wiki.

  15. Empirical Modeling of Planetary Boundary Layer Dynamics Under Multiple Precipitation Scenarios Using a Two-Layer Soil Moisture Approach: An Example From a Semiarid Shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Mejia, Zulia Mayari; Papuga, Shirley A.

    2017-11-01

    In semiarid regions, where water resources are limited and precipitation dynamics are changing, understanding land surface-atmosphere interactions that regulate the coupled soil moisture-precipitation system is key for resource management and planning. We present a modeling approach to study soil moisture and albedo controls on planetary boundary layer height (PBLh). We used Santa Rita Creosote Ameriflux and Tucson Airport atmospheric sounding data to generate empirical relationships between soil moisture, albedo, and PBLh. Empirical relationships showed that ˜50% of the variation in PBLh can be explained by soil moisture and albedo with additional knowledge gained by dividing the soil profile into two layers. Therefore, we coupled these empirical relationships with soil moisture estimated using a two-layer bucket approach to model PBLh under six precipitation scenarios. Overall we observed that decreases in precipitation tend to limit the recovery of the PBL at the end of the wet season. However, increases in winter precipitation despite decreases in summer precipitation may provide opportunities for positive feedbacks that may further generate more winter precipitation. Our results highlight that the response of soil moisture, albedo, and the PBLh will depend not only on changes in annual precipitation, but also on the frequency and intensity of this change. We argue that because albedo and soil moisture data are readily available at multiple temporal and spatial scales, developing empirical relationships that can be used in land surface-atmosphere applications have great potential for exploring the consequences of climate change.

  16. Modeling the fate of radionuclides in the unsaturated zone at the Nevada Test Site: Examples from Yucca Flat and Rainier Mesa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwicklis, E. M.; Dash, Z. V.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Levitt, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Dai, Z.; Zyvoloski, G.; Gable, C. W.; Miller, T. A.

    2010-12-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS), located 105 km northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada, hosted 828 underground nuclear explosions between 1951 and 1992, leaving an estimated 1.3e+08 curies of tritium, fission products, activation products and unspent fuel in the subsurface when the nuclear test moratorium was adopted in September, 1992. In two former testing areas of the NTS - Yucca Flat and Rainier Mesa- a significant fraction of the initial radionuclide inventory was introduced from nuclear tests with working points in the unsaturated zone. In Yucca Flat, an arid, low-elevation alluvium-filled basin where most tests were conducted in vertical shafts, unsaturated flow and transport models indicate that radionuclide migration to the water table is most likely where overlying subsidence craters receive significant infiltration from overland flow during infrequent runoff events. At Rainier Mesa, a wetter, high-elevation remnant of a once more extensive volcanic plateau, most tests were conducted at the ends of horizontal drifts in the vicinity of local perched water zones. Unsaturated flow and transport models of one of the larger tunnel complexes (N-tunnel) indicate that despite relatively high infiltration rates on the mesa, radionuclide diffusion from the flowing fractures to the porous matrix may significantly attenuate radionuclide movement to the water table.

  17. Multi-technique approach for deriving a VLBI signal extra-path variation model induced by gravity: the example of Medicina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarti, P.; Abbondanza, C.; Negusini, M.; Vittuari, L.

    2009-09-01

    During the measurement sessions gravity might induce significant deformations in large VLBI telescopes. If neglected or mismodelled, these deformations might bias the phase of the incoming signal thus corrupting the estimate of some crucial geodetic parameters (e.g. the height component of VLBI Reference Point). This paper describes a multi-technique approach implemented for measuring and quantifying the gravity-dependent deformations experienced by the 32-m diameter VLBI antenna of Medicina (Northern Italy). Such an approach integrates three different methods: Terrestrial Triangulations and Trilaterations (TTT), Laser Scanning (LS) and a Finite Element Model (FEM) of the antenna. The combination of the observations performed with these methods allows to accurately define an elevation-dependent model of the signal path variation which appears to be, for the Medicina telescope, non negligible. In the range [0,90] deg the signal path increases monotonically by almost 2 cm. The effect of such a variation has not been introduced in actual VLBI analysis yet; nevertheless this is the task we are going to pursue in the very next future.

  18. Analyzing Economic Attainment Patterns of Foreign Born Latin American Male Immigrants to The United States: an Example Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Gotcher

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the research which examines and endeavors to account for variation in the economic attainments of immigrants to the United States from Latin America, through the use of Hierarchical Linear Modeling. When analyzing this variation, researchers typically choose between two competing explanations. Human capital theory contends that variation in economic attainment is a product of different characteristics of individuals. Social capital theory contends that variation in economic attainment is a product of differences in characteristics of the societies from which the workers come. The author's central thesis is that we need not choose between human and social capital theories, that we can rely on both theoretical approaches, that it is an empirical and not a theoretical question how much variation can be explained by one set of factors versus the other. The real problem then is to build an appropriate methodology that allows us to partition the variation in economic attainments, identifying how much is explained by individual and how much by group characteristics. Using a multi-level modeling technique, this research presents such a methodology.

  19. [An example of self-evaluation of a sense of achievement by students in 6-year pharmacy school with the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shingaki, Tomoteru; Koyanagi, Jyunichi; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Hirata, Takahiro; Ohta, Atsutane; Akimoto, Masayuki; Shirahata, Akira; Mitsumoto, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    In March 2012, the first students, finishing the newly introduced 6-year-course of pharmaceutical education, have graduated and gone out into the world. At this point, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) is going to revise the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education to be more suited for educating students to achieve their goal of becoming the clinical pharmacist standard defined by the revised School Education Act. Here we report the self-evaluation study based on the survey using questionnaire about a sense of achievement with Visual Analog Scales, regarding the fundamental quality as a pharmacist standard proposed by the Professional Activities Committee in the MEXT. The sample size of survey was about 600 of students studying in the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Josai International University (JIU) and the survey was carried out during the period of March-April in 2012. The study suggested that the majority of graduates were satisfied with the new education system and marked as a well-balanced quality to be a pharmacist standard, after completing the 6-year pharmaceutical education based on "the model core-curriculum". It would be worthwhile to perform this kind of survey continuously to monitor the student's self-evaluation of a sense of achievement to verify the effectiveness of 6-year-course pharmaceutical education based on the newly establishing core curriculum in Japan.

  20. Location-allocation model for external beam radiotherapy as an example of an evidence-based management tool implemented in healthcare sector in Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerwiński, Adam Michał; Więckowska, Barbara

    2018-02-21

    External beam radiotherapy (EBRT) is one of three key treatment modalities of cancer patients. Its utilisation and outcomes depend on a plethora of variables, one of which is the distance a patient must travel to undergo the treatment. The relation between distance and utilisation is clearly visible in Poland. At the same time no strategic investment plan is observed. This work proposes a method of resolving these two issues. We propose a mixed-integer linear programming model that aims to optimise the distribution of linear accelerators among selected locations in such a way that a patient's journey to the nearest EBRT is as short as possible. The optimisation is done with observance of international guidelines concerning EBRT capacity. With the use of proposed theoretical framework, we develop a national, strategic plan for linear accelerator investments. According to model assumptions decentralisation of EBRT, together with new equipment purchases, is required to ensure optimal access to EBRT. The results were incorporated into Healthcare Needs Maps for Poland. The plan based on the results of this study, implemented by 2025, should deal with the most pressing concerns of Polish EBRT. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Determination of Solar Irradiation in Urban Areas with an Open Source GIS Model: Application on the Example of the Rožna dolina in Ljubljana, Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alen Mangafić

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The determination of solar irradiation is crucial when planning the installation of solar systems. There are different GIS models for determining solar irradiation, which differ from each other in terms of input data, hardware requirements, performance, reliability and suitability, depending on the specificity of the study area and the nature of the study. Because of their diversity, urban areas pose a greater challenge for the estimation of the potential of the received solar energy. In the article we offered a methodology for determining the irradiation of urban area roofs using the GRASS GIS model r.sun, which makes the computation with high resolution spatial, atmospheric and meteorological data. The used input data is freely available for the entire territory of Slovenia. The proposed methodological approach was tested in the area of the town quarter Rožna dolina with the northern part of Vič. The area is very diverse according to the typology of the built objects, the land cover and altitude differences.

  2. A methodologic framework for modeling and assessing biomarkers of environmental enteropathy as predictors of growth in infants: an example from a Peruvian birth cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colston, Josh M; Peñataro Yori, Pablo; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Moulton, Lawrence H; Ambikapathi, Ramya; Lee, Gwenyth; Rengifo Trigoso, Dixner; Siguas Salas, Mery; Kosek, Margaret N

    2017-07-01

    Background: Environmental enteropathy (EE) impairs the gut's absorptive capacity and immune function and causes decelerations in statural growth that manifest gradually over time. Objective: To illustrate an approach for assessing emerging biomarkers of EE, we separately assessed the associations between 3 such markers and subsequent nutritional status. Design: Stool samples were routinely collected between January 2010 and November 2014 from a cohort of 303 Peruvian infants and analyzed for concentrations of the biomarkers α-1-antitrypsin (AAT), myeloperoxidase, and neopterin. For each marker, a mixed-effects linear regression model was fitted for length-for-age z scores (LAZs) obtained from anthropometric assessments that incorporated covariate predictors, polynomial terms for age, and product interaction terms to test associations over varying lag lengths. The biomarkers' contribution to the models was assessed with the use of the likelihood ratio test and partial R 2 statistics. Results: Test statistics for the combined inclusion of the 4-model terms that involved the biomarker were highly statistically significant for AAT (28.71; P < 0.0001) and myeloperoxidase (62.79; P < 0.0001) over a 3-mo lag and moderately so for neopterin (13.97; P = 0.0074). AAT and myeloperoxidase seemed to interact strongly with age, with the magnitude and direction of the effect varying considerably over the first 3 y of life. The largest proportion of the variance explained by any biomarker (2.8%) and the largest difference in LAZ predicted between the 5th and 95th percentile (0.25) was by myeloperoxidase over a 2-mo lag. Conclusions: Of the 3 fecal biomarkers studied, 2 that related to intestinal function-AAT and myeloperoxidase-were associated with small but highly statistically significant differences in future statural growth trajectories in infants in this cohort, lending further evidence to the EE hypothesis that increased gut permeability and inflammation adversely affects

  3. From new generation of remote sensing geological maps to 3-D model: the Central Kyzylkum (Western Uzbekistan) is taken as example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorova, Elena

    2013-04-01

    Geographic information systems (GIS) together with remote sensing (RS) have become powerful tools in geosciences. The application of GIS technologies in geological exploration including mapping of remote sensing geological bases represents new trend in space-geological studies. GIS technologies are a multifunctional tool of input, visualization, analysis and output of information necessary for achieving geological objectives. They enable a prompt processing of geological information for various territories and levels - from a province to ore area or deposit. A modern remote sensing geological map reflects a new level of organization of source data, and involves a vast territory and previously unknown or unused factors, which proceed from non-traditional methods of studies. This is the benefit of distance bases as they explain the structure of geological complexes but also contribute to revealing new elements that cannot be established using traditional methods of geological studies. Data obtained from computational analysis of Digital Elevation Models (DEM) and from plotting the remotely sensed geological structures are complemented by data acquired in the field using traditional mapping methods. In this paper, the new improved results are tested in the western part of Uzbekistan — the region of Central Kyzylkum, which include of numerous ore deposits. Landsat TM imagery was successfully used for geological structures recognition due to its synoptic view over large areas that allow the detection of regional geological features — faults, ring structures. Spatial information is crucial for ore structure detection; nevertheless spectral data can also help in the geological interpretation of space images. In order to combine the spatial and spectral information of Landsat TM data, panchromatic and multispectral images were fused in a synergetic imagery using PCA analysis. Edge enhancement filtering techniques were also applied on the Landsat images to facilitate

  4. Impact of a smoking and alcohol intervention programme on lung and breast cancer incidence in Denmark: An example of dynamic modelling with Prevent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soerjomataram, Isabelle; de Vries, Esther; Engholm, Gerda

    2010-01-01

    Prevent v.3.01 to assess the changes in incidence as a result of risk factor changes. Incidence of lung and breast cancer until 2050 was predicted under two scenarios: ideal (total elimination of smoking and reduction of alcohol intake to maximum 1units/d for women) and optimistic (decreasing prevalence......PURPOSE: Among the known risk factors, smoking is clearly related to the incidence of lung cancer and alcohol consumption is to breast cancer. In this manuscript we modelled the potential benefits of reductions in smoking or alcohol prevalence for the burden of these cancers. METHOD: We used...... of risk factors because of a 10% increase in cigarette and alcohol beverage price, repeated every 5years). Danish data from the household surveys, cancer registration and Eurostat were used. RESULTS: Up to 49% less new lung cancer cases can be expected in 2050 if smoking were to be completely eliminated...

  5. Flow and Radionuclide Transport Models of the Unsaturated Zone at the Nevada National Security Site: Examples from Yucca Flat and Rainier Mesa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwicklis, E. M.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Levitt, D. G.; Dash, Z.; Gable, C. W.; Lu, Z.; Dai, Z.; Zyvoloski, G.; Miller, T. A.

    2011-12-01

    The former Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site) hosted 828 underground nuclear explosions between 1951 and 1992, leaving an estimated 1.3e+08 curies of tritium, fission products, activation products and unspent fuel in the subsurface when the nuclear test moratorium was adopted in September, 1992. In two former testing areas of the Nevada National Security Site - Yucca Flat and Rainier Mesa- a significant fraction of the initial radionuclide inventory was introduced from nuclear tests with working points in the unsaturated zone. In Yucca Flat, an arid, low-elevation alluvium-filled basin where most tests were conducted in vertical shafts, unsaturated flow and transport models indicate that radionuclide migration to the water table is most likely where overlying subsidence craters receive significant infiltration from overland flow during infrequent runoff events. These craters tend to be located along the perimeter of the basin and have large contributing watersheds in the surrounding hills. At Rainier Mesa, a wetter, high-elevation remnant of a once more extensive volcanic plateau, most tests were conducted at the ends of horizontal drifts in the vicinity of local perched water zones. Unsaturated flow and transport models of one of the larger tunnel complexes (N-tunnel) indicate that despite relatively high infiltration rates on the mesa, radionuclide diffusion from the flowing fractures to the porous matrix may significantly attenuate radionuclide movement to the water table, depending on the assumed fracture attributes. Simulations show that the tunnel itself may be an important hydraulic feature that connects radionuclide sources to sub-vertical faults that are assumed to extend to the water table.

  6. Chemically Surface Tunable Solubility Parameter for Controllable Drug Delivery—An Example and Perspective from Hollow PAA-Coated Magnetite Nanoparticles with R6G Model Drug

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quanguo He

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Solubility parameter-dependent drug releasing property is essential in practical drug delivery systems (DDS, and how to combine magnetic nanoparticles(NPs and suitable polymer coating towards DDS is always a crucial and valuable challenge in biomedical application. Herein, a controllable drug delivery model with a surface having a chemically tunable solubility parameter is presented using hollow magnetite/polyacrylic acid (Fe3O4/PAA nanocomposites as nanocarrier towards DDS. This composite is prepared by simply coating the modified hollow Fe3O4 with PAA. The coating amount of PAA onto the surface of Fe3O4 (measured by TGA is about 40% (w/w. Then, Rhodamine 6G (R6G is selected as model drug in drug delivery experiment. The efficiency of drug loading and drug release of these Fe3O4/PAA nanocarriers are evaluated under various temperature, solvent and pH values. As a result, the best drug releasing rate was achieved as 93.0% in pH = 7.4 PBS solution after 14 h. The releasing efficiency is 86.5% in acidic condition, while a lower releasing rate (30.0% is obtained in aqueous solution, as different forms (polyacrylic acid and polyacrylate of PAA present different solubility parameters, causing different salt and acid effects in various solvents, swelling property of PAA, and binding force between PAA and R6G. Therefore, by changing the solubility parameter of coating polymers, the drug delivery properties could be effectively tuned. These findings prove that the DDS based on magnetic particle cores and polymer encapsulation could efficiently regulate the drug delivery properties by tuning surface solubility parameter in potential cancer targeting and therapy.

  7. Faults architecture and growth in clay-limestone alternation. Examples in the S-E Basin alternations (France) and numerical modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, Vincent

    2011-01-01

    The following work has been carried out in the framework of the studies conducted by IRSN in support of its safety evaluation of the geological disposal programme of high and intermediate level, long-lived radioactive waste. Such a disposal is planned to be hosted by the Callovian-Oxfordian indurate clay formation between two limestone formations in eastern Paris basin, France. Hypothetical faults may cross-cut this layered section, decreasing the clay containment ability by creating preferential pathways for radioactive solute towards limestones. This study aims at characterising the fault architecture and the normal fault growth in clay/limestone layered sections. Structural analysis and displacement profiles have been carried out in normal faults crossing several decimetres to metre thick sedimentary alternations in the South-Eastern Basin (France) and petrophysical properties have been determined for each layer. The studied faults are simple fault planes or complex fault zones showing are significantly controlled by the layering. The analysis of the fault characteristics and the results obtained on numerical models enlighten several processes such as fault nucleation, fault restriction, and fault growth through layered section. Some studied faults nucleated in the limestone layers, without using pre-existing fractures such as joints, and according to our numerical analysis, a strong stiffness, a low strength contrast between the limestone and the clay layer, and/or s a greater thickness of the clay layer are conditions which favour nucleation of faults in limestone. The range of mechanical properties leading to the fault nucleation in one layer type or another was investigated using a 3D modelling approach. After its nucleation, the fault propagates within a homogeneous medium with a constant displacement gradient until its vertical propagation is stopped by a restrictor. The evidenced restrictors are limestone-clay interfaces or faults in clays, sub

  8. Importance of selecting archaeomagnetic data for geomagnetic modelling: example of the new Western Europe directional and intensity secular variation curves from 1500 BC to 200 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herve, Gwenael; Chauvin, Annick; Lanos, Philippe

    2014-05-01

    At the regional scale, the dispersion between archaeomagnetic data and especially archaeointensities suggests that some of them may be biased. As a consequence, it appears necessary to perform a selection of available data before to compute mean regional secular variation curves or geomagnetic models. However the definition of suitable selection criteria is not obvious and we need to know how to manage "old" data acquired during the 60-70s. The Western Europe directional and intensity data set from 1500 BC to 200 AD allows to discuss these issues. It has recently been enhanced by 39 new archaeodirections and 23 new archaeointensities (Hervé et al., 2013a and 2013b data sets and 5 unpublished data). First, the whole Western Europe data set was selected but the strong dispersion restricted the accuracy and the reliability of the new Western Europe secular variation curves at Paris. The causes of the dispersion appear different between archaeodirections and archaeointensities. In the directional data set, the main problem comes from some age errors in the oldest published data. Since their publication their archaeological dating may have changed of 50 years or more. For intensity data that were acquired much more recently, the dispersion mainly results from the use of unreliable archaeointensity protocols. We propose a weighting approach based on the number of specimens and the use of pTRM-checks, anisotropy and cooling rate corrections. Only 63% of available archaeodirections and 32% of archaeointensities were used to build the new Western Europe secular variation curves from 1500 BC to 200 AD. These curves reveal that selecting the reference data avoids wrong estimations of the shape of the secular variation curves, the secular variation rate, the dating of archaeomagnetic jerks... Finally, it is worth pointing out that current geomagnetic global models take into account almost all the data that we decided to reject. It could partly explain why their predictions at

  9. Modelling larval dispersal of the king scallop ( Pecten maximus) in the English Channel: examples from the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolle, Amandine; Dumas, Franck; Foveau, Aurélie; Foucher, Eric; Thiébaut, Eric

    2013-06-01

    The king scallop ( Pecten maximus) is one of the most important benthic species of the English Channel as it constitutes the first fishery in terms of landings in this area. To support strategies of spatial fishery management, we develop a high-resolution biophysical model to study scallop dispersal in two bays along the French coasts of the English Channel (i.e. the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine) and to quantify the relative roles of local hydrodynamic processes, temperature-dependent planktonic larval duration (PLD) and active swimming behaviour (SB). The two bays are chosen for three reasons: (1) the distribution of the scallop stocks in these areas is well known from annual scallop stock surveys, (2) these two bays harbour important fisheries and (3) scallops in these two areas present some differences in terms of reproductive cycle and spawning duration. The English Channel currents and temperature are simulated for 10 years (2000-2010) with the MARS-3D code and then used by the Lagrangian module of MARS-3D to model the transport. Results were analysed in terms of larval distribution at settlement and connectivity rates. While larval transport in the two bays depended both on the tidal residual circulation and the wind-induced currents, the relative role of these two hydrodynamic processes varied among bays. In the bay of Saint-Brieuc, the main patterns of larval dispersal were due to tides, the wind being only a source of variability in the extent of larval patch and the local retention rate. Conversely, in the bay of Seine, wind-induced currents altered both the direction and the extent of larval transport. The main effect of a variable PLD in relation to the thermal history of each larva was to reduce the spread of dispersal and consequently increase the local retention by about 10 % on average. Although swimming behaviour could influence larval dispersal during the first days of the PLD when larvae are mainly located in surface waters, it has a

  10. Innovative Model of Practice-Oriented Training of Employees of the Town-Forming Enterprise in the Mining Region (by the Example of JSC "SUEK-Kuzbass")

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulay, Svetlana; Kayachev, Gennady

    2017-11-01

    The article proposes to improve the system of training of employees of joint-stock company SUEK-Kuzbass in the educational institutions of the Kemerovo region according to the requirements of the company using practice-oriented training technology. The aim of the work is to substantiate the effectiveness of implementing practice-oriented training, identify priority directions and ways of its development. The main objectives of the study are: to identify the main advantages for the company and students; determine the criteria for the success and practical value of applying practice-oriented training for the company; conduct a comparative analysis of the target and practice-oriented model of training for the company. The real needs of the employer through the dual form of training were taking into account. The expansion of positive experience in training engineering personnel in higher education in technology-based training with the involvement of specialists from other regions of the company and expanding training in mining was also included.

  11. Analysis co-regulation model of safety of fishery products in Morocco through the example of “histamine”, “parasites” and “sulphites” dangers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dahani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Co-regulation in food safety represents the shared responsibility between food business operators and the competent authority (CA to ensure food safety and to comply with the health requirements of importing countries. The evolution of food regulation on one hand and the quality assurance of the veterinary services of the ONSSA according to the ISO 17020 standard on the other hand, need studying the regulation model adopted at national level. The objective of this work is to analyze the main health risks associated with fishery products from a co-regulatory perspective. The hazards targeted by this study are histamine, parasites and sulfites. The approach is based on structured interviews with fishery products professionals and veterinary inspectors responsible for control and certification. The main hazards are controlled by adopting health control plans (PMS by the professionals within the establishments as well as the official control carried out by the inspecting veterinarians. The PMS implementation can produce conflicting injunctions for the veterinary inspectors of the competent authority.

  12. Development and validation of the Brazilian version of the Attitudes to Aging Questionnaire (AAQ: An example of merging classical psychometric theory and the Rasch measurement model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trentini Clarissa M

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aging has determined a demographic shift in the world, which is considered a major societal achievement, and a challenge. Aging is primarily a subjective experience, shaped by factors such as gender and culture. There is a lack of instruments to assess attitudes to aging adequately. In addition, there is no instrument developed or validated in developing region contexts, so that the particularities of ageing in these areas are not included in the measures available. This paper aims to develop and validate a reliable attitude to aging instrument by combining classical psychometric approach and Rasch analysis. Methods Pilot study and field trial are described in details. Statistical analysis included classic psychometric theory (EFA and CFA and Rasch measurement model. The latter was applied to examine unidimensionality, response scale and item fit. Results Sample was composed of 424 Brazilian old adults, which was compared to an international sample (n = 5238. The final instrument shows excellent psychometric performance (discriminant validity, confirmatory factor analysis and Rasch fit statistics. Rasch analysis indicated that modifications in the response scale and item deletions improved the initial solution derived from the classic approach. Conclusion The combination of classic and modern psychometric theories in a complementary way is fruitful for development and validation of instruments. The construction of a reliable Brazilian Attitudes to Aging Questionnaire is important for assessing cultural specificities of aging in a transcultural perspective and can be applied in international cross-cultural investigations running less risk of cultural bias.

  13. A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification

  14. On the Quality of Examples in Introductory Java Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borstler, Jurgen; Nordstrom, Marie; Paterson, James H.

    2011-01-01

    Example programs play an important role in the teaching and learning of programming. Students as well as teachers rank examples as the most important resources for learning to program. Example programs work as role models and must therefore always be consistent with the principles and rules we are teaching. However, it is difficult to find or…

  15. Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods: the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-03-01

    Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and the risk of hip fracture. A cohort of patients with a first prescription for antidepressants (SSRI or tricyclic antidepressants) was extracted from the Dutch Mondriaan and Spanish Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) general practice databases for the period 2001-2009. The net (total) effect of SSRI versus no SSRI on the risk of hip fracture was estimated using time-varying Cox regression, stratification and covariate adjustment using the PS, and MSM. In MSM, censoring was accounted for by inverse probability of censoring weights. The crude hazard ratio (HR) of SSRI use versus no SSRI use on hip fracture was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.12, 2.72) in Mondriaan and 2.09 (1.89, 2.32) in BIFAP. After confounding adjustment using time-varying Cox regression, stratification, and covariate adjustment using the PS, HRs increased in Mondriaan [2.59 (1.63, 4.12), 2.64 (1.63, 4.25), and 2.82 (1.63, 4.25), respectively] and decreased in BIFAP [1.56 (1.40, 1.73), 1.54 (1.39, 1.71), and 1.61 (1.45, 1.78), respectively]. MSMs with stabilized weights yielded HR 2.15 (1.30, 3.55) in Mondriaan and 1.63 (1.28, 2.07) in BIFAP when accounting for censoring and 2.13 (1.32, 3.45) in Mondriaan and 1.66 (1.30, 2.12) in BIFAP without accounting for censoring. In this empirical study, differences between the different methods to control for time-dependent confounding were small. The observed differences in treatment effect estimates between the databases are likely attributable to different confounding information in the datasets, illustrating that adequate information on (time-varying) confounding is crucial to prevent bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. NESSIE: Network Example Source Supporting Innovative Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Alan; Higham, Desmond J.

    We describe a new web-based facility that makes available some realistic examples of complex networks. NESSIE (Network Example Source Supporting Innovative Experimentation) currently contains 12 specific networks from a diverse range of application areas, with a Scottish emphasis. This collection of data sets is designed to be useful for researchers in network science who wish to evaluate new algorithms, concepts and models. The data sets are available to download in two formats (MATLAB's .mat format and .txt files readable by packages such as Pajek), and some basic MATLAB tools for computing summary statistics are also provided.

  17. Example of software configuration management model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roth, P.

    2006-01-01

    Software configuration management is the mechanism used to track and control software changes and may include the following actions: A tracking system should be established for any changes made to the existing software configuration. Requirement of the configuration management system are the following: - Backup the different software configuration; - Record the details (the date, the subject, the filenames, the supporting documents, the tests, ...) of the changes introduced in the new configuration; - Document all the differences between the different versions. Configuration management allows simultaneous exploitation of one specific version and development of the next version. Minor correction can be perform in the current exploitation version

  18. Models for warehouse management: Classification and examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, J.P.; van den Berg, J.P.; Zijm, Willem H.M.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we discuss warehousing systems and present a classification of warehouse management problems. We start with a typology and a brief description of several types of warehousing systems. Next, we present a hierarchy of decision problems encountered in setting up warehousing systems,

  19. Dual model of vocational education: Austrian example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomić Milica

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dual education, as a form of secondary vocational education means that education and practical training are held on two locations - in school and in a company (organization, factory and that these two institutions jointly participate in the realization of vocational education. The paper presents an account of the functioning of dual education in Austria. In that framework special attention was paid to law regulations in this field, the modes of dual education, progression through the system and the perspectives of the young in the labour market. Among the key features of dual education which are, at the same time, considered the factors of its successfulness, the following stand out: active role of social partners in the conceptualization and realization of vocational education; intensive practical training of high quality; systemic interrelatedness of vocational schools and firms where practical training is provided, the compliance of the offer of educational profiles and the needs of labour market; the system of stimulation for the firms that provide professional training for students, clear legislation and the system of professional qualifications. Yet, the challenges of dual educations are not neglected in the paper.

  20. UML modelling of network warfare examples

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Veerasamy, N

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available will be determined by arguing their application to Network Warfare A. Consideration of Network Warfare Attributes Network Warfare can be seen as taking place over Information and Communication Technology (ICT) networks to affect information processing... the works of Theohandou, Tipton and Sowa, the following information security techniques emerge: Risk Analysis, Physical Security, Incident Response, Disaster Recovery Planning, Security Awareness, Legal, Regulations and Compliance [15] [16] [17...

  1. Extended asymptotic functions - some examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todorov, T.D.

    1981-01-01

    Several examples of extended asymptotic functions of two variables are given. This type of asymptotic functions has been introduced as an extension of continuous ordinary functions. The presented examples are realizations of some Schwartz distributions delta(x), THETA(x), P(1/xsup(n)) and can be multiplied in the class of the asymptotic functions as opposed to the theory of Schwartz distributions. The examples illustrate the method of construction of extended asymptotic functions similar to the distributions. The set formed by the extended asymptotic functions is also considered. It is shown, that this set is not closed with respect to addition and multiplication

  2. From Utterance to Example Sentence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristoffersen, Jette Hedegaard

    This poster will address some of the problems on excerption of example sentences for the online dictionary of Danish Sign Language (DTS) from a raw corpus of dialogues and monologues. In the Danish Sign Language Dictionary every meaning is illustrated by one or more sentences showing the sign...... lexicographers. The sentences were excerpted by hand from a raw corpus of dialogues and monologues – given to us by our group of consultants. The poster describes the process from utterance in a corpus in a larger context to an example sentence in a dictionary, where the purpose of having examples sentences...... is to help the dictionary user to gain additional knowledge of a meaning of a sign, as well as to provide sentence constructions that can be adopted by the L2 learner. The process from the moment when a sentence has been excerpted from the corpus to the point when an example sentence is finally accepted...

  3. Example Problems in LES Combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-26

    memorandum is the evaporation and subsequent combustion of liquid fuel droplets. Kerosene, a complex hydrogen mixture, is explored from the standpoint of...AFRL-RW-EG-TP-2016-002 Example Problems in LES Combustion Douglas V. Nance Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Example Problem in LES Combustion 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

  4. Structural and parametric models of the Zalezcze and Zuchlow gas field region, fore-Sudetic monocline, Poland - An example of a general static modeling work-flow in mature petroleum areas for CCS, EGR or EOR purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papiernik, Bartosz; Doligez, Brigitte; Klimkowski, Lukasz

    2015-01-01

    Zalecze and Zuchlow are strongly depleted natural gas fields in aeolian sandstones of the Rotliegend, located in the central part of the Fore-Sudetic Monocline. A set of three static 3D models was generated to check the possibility of CO 2 injection for Enhanced Gas Recovery (EGR) and to check the safety of storage by means of geomechanical modeling: one regional model (ZZA) and two local models - the first for Zalecze (ZA) gas field and the second for Zuchlow (ZU) gas field. The regional model is composed of 12 stratigraphic complexes (zones) from the base of the Rotliegend to the ground surface. The local models comprise only the three lowermost complexes: fluvial deposits of the Rotliegend, aeolian sandstones of the Rotliegend (Reservoir I) and basal Zechstein limestone, Ca1. The key elements of the modeling procedure include: Quality Control (QC) of the data, interpretation of missing parameters necessary for static modeling and their integration within a geo-model. The processing work-flow was elaborated to produce convergent regional and local models. The regional static model is a framework for a regional geomechanical model. The local models are the basis for dynamic simulations and local geomechanical modeling. The presented work-flow could be used with some changes for geo-modeling of many mature gas and oil fields. (authors)

  5. Examples and counter-examples of log-symplectic manifolds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cavalcanti, Gil R.

    We study topological properties of log-symplectic structures and produce examples of compact manifolds with such structures. Notably, we show that several symplectic manifolds do not admit bona fide log-symplectic structures and several bona fide log-symplectic manifolds do not admit symplectic

  6. Fuzzy Clustering - Principles, Methods and Examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroszynski, Uri; Zhou, Jianjun

    1998-01-01

    of the methods. The examples were solved by hand and served as a test bench for exploration of the MATLAB capabilities included in the Fuzzy Control Toolbox. The fuzzy clustering methods described include Fuzzy c-means (FCM), Fuzzy c-lines (FCL) and Fuzzy c-elliptotypes (FCE).......One of the most remarkable advances in the field of identification and control of systems -in particular mechanical systems- whose behaviour can not be described by means of the usual mathematical models, has been achieved by the application of methods of fuzzy theory.In the framework of a study...... about identification of "black-box" properties by analysis of system input/output data sets, we have prepared an introductory note on the principles and the most popular data classification methods used in fuzzy modeling. This introductory note also includes some examples that illustrate the use...

  7. Economic analysis of energy supply and national economy on the basis of general equilibrium models. Applications of the input-output decomposition analysis and the Computable General Equilibrium models shown by the example of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Jong-Hwan.

    1993-01-01

    Firstly, this study investigaties the causes of sectoral growth and structural changes in the Korean economy. Secondly, it develops the borders of a consistent economic model in order to investigate simultaneously the different impacts of changes in energy and in the domestic economy. This is done any both the Input-Output-Decomposition analysis and a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE Model). The CGE Model eliminates the disadvantages of the IO Model and allows the investigation of the interdegenerative of the various energy sectors with the economy. The Social Accounting Matrix serves as the data basis of the GCE Model. Simulated experiments have been comet out with the help of the GCE Model, indicating the likely impact of an oil price shock in the economy-sectorally and generally. (orig.) [de

  8. 26 CFR 1.825-3 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 1.825-3 Section 1.825-3 Internal....825-3 Examples. The application of section 825 may be illustrated by the following examples: Example 1... 1970, 1971, and 1972, in that order. Example 2. If in example 1 F had an unused loss in 1966 of 22...

  9. Shaping Discourse and Setting Examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Persson, Anders

    2017-01-01

    around an issue. By using Tuomas Forsberg's framework of four different mechanisms of normative power: persuasion, invoking norms, shaping the discourse and the power of example on three important case studies from the conflict (EC/EU's declaratory diplomacy on the need for a just peace in the conflict...

  10. Interactive example-based hatching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerl, Moritz; Isenberg, Tobias

    2013-01-01

    We present an approach for interactively generating pen-and-ink hatching renderings based on hand-drawn examples. We aim to overcome the regular and synthetic appearance of the results of existing methods by incorporating human virtuosity and illustration skills in the computer generation of such

  11. Active Learning with Irrelevant Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, Kiri; Mazzoni, Dominic

    2009-01-01

    An improved active learning method has been devised for training data classifiers. One example of a data classifier is the algorithm used by the United States Postal Service since the 1960s to recognize scans of handwritten digits for processing zip codes. Active learning algorithms enable rapid training with minimal investment of time on the part of human experts to provide training examples consisting of correctly classified (labeled) input data. They function by identifying which examples would be most profitable for a human expert to label. The goal is to maximize classifier accuracy while minimizing the number of examples the expert must label. Although there are several well-established methods for active learning, they may not operate well when irrelevant examples are present in the data set. That is, they may select an item for labeling that the expert simply cannot assign to any of the valid classes. In the context of classifying handwritten digits, the irrelevant items may include stray marks, smudges, and mis-scans. Querying the expert about these items results in wasted time or erroneous labels, if the expert is forced to assign the item to one of the valid classes. In contrast, the new algorithm provides a specific mechanism for avoiding querying the irrelevant items. This algorithm has two components: an active learner (which could be a conventional active learning algorithm) and a relevance classifier. The combination of these components yields a method, denoted Relevance Bias, that enables the active learner to avoid querying irrelevant data so as to increase its learning rate and efficiency when irrelevant items are present. The algorithm collects irrelevant data in a set of rejected examples, then trains the relevance classifier to distinguish between labeled (relevant) training examples and the rejected ones. The active learner combines its ranking of the items with the probability that they are relevant to yield a final decision about which item

  12. Why do we have such difficulty assessing aerosol impacts in Southeast Asia? Examining the representativeness of regional in situ, remote sensing, and modeling data using examples from a recent field trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Lagrosas, N.; Salinas Cortijo, S. V.; Campbell, J. R.; Chew, B.; Cook, J.; Di Girolamo, L.; Kuciauskas, A. P.; Johnson, R. S.; Jonsson, H.; Lynch, P.; Sessions, W.; Simpas, J. B.; Turk, F. J.; Wang, J.

    2012-12-01

    Southeast Asia faces numerous climate change issues, and the interaction between aerosol particles, clouds, and precipitation is thought to impact the environment in this region at both weather and climate scales. Aerosol particles have direct radiative effects, indirect effects through interaction with clouds and precipitation, and also act as a tracer for other processes affecting the carbon cycle or atmospheric chemistry. Southeast Asia also hosts some of the most complex meteorological phenomenon of the world, challenging in situ, remote sensing and modeling systems. Indeed, there is more diversity in satellite based aerosol, fire, cloud, and precipitation products in Southeast Asia than perhaps anywhere else in the world outside of the poles. In addition to serious direct challenges to aerosol observability in Southeast Asia, such as persistent ubiquitous cloud cover, there are also contextual biases (such as for aerosol retrievals the classic clear sky bias). Contextual bias affects the representativeness of nearly all aerosol assessments in Southeast Asia. As part of the 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program, a small intensive study was conducted in Singapore and the Palawan Archipelago in September 2011 to study the flow of biomass burning smoke through the South China/East Sea and into the summertime monsoonal trough. Analysis of field data coupled with multiple satellite and model products allowed us to investigate questions on the representativeness of data and to what extent they capture the 'true' state of the meteorological and aerosol environment. Four specific representativeness issues are presented based on IOP examples: 1) Individual biases in retrievals or model simulations; 2) Sampling biases at short time scales based on product coverage; 3) Temporal and spatial scale biases inherent in large and point based measurements; 4) Contextual biases that develop from the aggregation of data products. Considering all four of these issues we

  13. Nonlinear time series theory, methods and applications with R examples

    CERN Document Server

    Douc, Randal; Stoffer, David

    2014-01-01

    FOUNDATIONSLinear ModelsStochastic Processes The Covariance World Linear Processes The Multivariate Cases Numerical Examples ExercisesLinear Gaussian State Space Models Model Basics Filtering, Smoothing, and Forecasting Maximum Likelihood Estimation Smoothing Splines and the Kalman Smoother Asymptotic Distribution of the MLE Missing Data Modifications Structural Component Models State-Space Models with Correlated Errors Exercises Beyond Linear ModelsNonlinear Non-Gaussian Data Volterra Series Expansion Cumulants and Higher-Order Spectra Bilinear Models Conditionally Heteroscedastic Models Thre

  14. Introduction: The Power of Example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højer, Lars; Bandak, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    It is the contention of this introduction that examples are important prisms through which both reality and anthropological analysis are thought and, equally importantly, reconfigured. The aim of the introduction is to redress the theoretical disregard for exemplification by exploring the persuas......It is the contention of this introduction that examples are important prisms through which both reality and anthropological analysis are thought and, equally importantly, reconfigured. The aim of the introduction is to redress the theoretical disregard for exemplification by exploring...... the persuasive and evocative power – positive and negative – of ‘examples’ in social and academic life while also proposing exemplification as a distinct anthropological way of theorizing. Such theorizing points to a ‘lateral’ rethinking of the relation between the particular and the general. Our central...

  15. Tracers and traceability: implementing the cirrus parameterisation from LACM in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT chemistry transport model as an example of the application of quality assurance to legacy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Horseman

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A new modelling tool for the investigation of large-scale behaviour of cirrus clouds has been developed. This combines two existing models, the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT chemistry transport model (nupdate library version 0.80, script mpc346_l and cirrus parameterisation of Ren and MacKenzie (LACM implementation not versioned. The development process employed a subset of best-practice software engineering and quality assurance processes, selected to be viable for small-scale projects whilst maintaining the same traceability objectives. The application of the software engineering and quality control processes during the development has been shown to be not a great overhead, and their use has been of benefit to the developers as well as the end users of the results. We provide a step-by-step guide to the implementation of traceability tailored to the production of geo-scientific research software, as distinct from commercial and operational software. Our recommendations include: maintaining a living "requirements list"; explicit consideration of unit, integration and acceptance testing; and automated revision/configuration control, including control of analysis tool scripts and programs.

    Initial testing of the resulting model against satellite and in-situ measurements has been promising. The model produces representative results for both spatial distribution of the frequency of occurrence of cirrus ice, and the drying of air as it moves across the tropical tropopause. The model is now ready for more rigorous quantitative testing, but will require the addition of a vertical wind velocity downscaling scheme to better represent extra-tropical continental cirrus.

  16. 26 CFR 1.826-7 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 1.826-7 Section 1.826-7 Internal....826-7 Examples. The application of section 826 may be illustrated by the following examples: Example 1... percent of 8 exceeds 25 percent of 0), may remain in such account beyond the taxable year 1968. Example 2...

  17. 26 CFR 301.9000-6 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 301.9000-6 Section 301.9000-6... Examples. The following examples illustrate the provisions of §§ 301.9000-1 through 301.9000-5: Example 1... commitment of resources to comply with the subpoena inappropriate. Example 2. In a state judicial proceeding...

  18. 12 CFR 222.2 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Examples. 222.2 Section 222.2 Banks and Banking... (REGULATION V) General Provisions § 222.2 Examples. The examples in this part are not exclusive. Compliance with an example, to the extent applicable, constitutes compliance with this part. Examples in a...

  19. 12 CFR 334.2 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Examples. 334.2 Section 334.2 Banks and Banking... General Provisions § 334.2 Examples. The examples in this part are not exclusive. Compliance with an example, to the extent applicable, constitutes compliance with this part. Examples in a paragraph...

  20. 26 CFR 801.7 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 20 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 801.7 Section 801.7 Internal Revenue... Examples. (a) The rules of § 801.3 are illustrated by the following examples: Example 1. (i) Each year... permissible because case closures are a quantity measure. Case closures are an example of outcome-neutral...

  1. 12 CFR 571.2 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Examples. 571.2 Section 571.2 Banks and Banking... Examples. The examples in this part are not exclusive. Compliance with an example, to the extent applicable, constitutes compliance with this part. Examples in a paragraph illustrate only the issue described in the...

  2. 22 CFR 96.15 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 96.15 Section 96.15 Foreign Relations... Services § 96.15 Examples. The following examples illustrate the rules of §§ 96.12 to 96.14: Example 1... the adoption. Example 2. Child welfare services exemption. Doctor X evaluates the medical records and...

  3. 12 CFR 717.2 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Examples. 717.2 Section 717.2 Banks and Banking... Provisions § 717.2 Examples. The examples in this part are not exclusive. Compliance with an example, to the extent applicable, constitutes compliance with this part. Examples in a paragraph illustrate only the...

  4. Top decays in extended models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaitan, R.; Miranda, O. G.; Cabral-Rosetti, L. G.

    2009-01-01

    Top quark decays are interesting as a mean to test the Standard Model (SM) predictions. The Cabbibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM)-suppressed process t→cWW, and the rare decays t→cZ, t→H 0 +c, and t→cγ an excellent window to probe the predictions of theories beyond the SM. We evaluate the flavor changing neutral currents (FCNC) decay t→H 0 +c in the context of Alternative Left-Right symmetric Models (ALRM) with extra isosinglet heavy fermions; the FCNC decays may place at tree level and are only supressed by the mixing between ordinary top and charm quarks. We also comment on the decay process t→c+γ, which involves radiative corrections.

  5. Application examples of EFPACS series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Yasunori; Aoki, Makoto; Yamahata, Noboru

    1989-01-01

    This paper introduces some application examples of picture archiving and communications system EFPACS series which achieves efficient management of a volume of image data generated in a hospital, and powerfully support image diagnosis using multi-modality. EFPACS can be applied to various objectives of system installation, and can meet the scale of a hospital and the way of image filing. EFPACS has been installed in a middle-scale hospital for image conference, in a general hospital for long-term archiving of MRI data and for referring in the outpatient clinic, in a dental hospital for dental image processing, and so on. (author)

  6. Misleading Betas: An Educational Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, James; Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

    2012-01-01

    The dual-beta model is a generalization of the CAPM model. In the dual-beta model, separate beta estimates are provided for up-market and down-market days. This paper uses the historical "Anscombe quartet" results which illustrated how very different datasets can produce the same regression coefficients to motivate a discussion of the…

  7. Two examples of non strictly convex large deviations

    OpenAIRE

    De Marco, Stefano; Jacquier, Antoine; Roome, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    We present two examples of a large deviations principle where the rate function is not strictly convex. This is motivated by a model used in mathematical finance (the Heston model), and adds a new item to the zoology of non strictly convex large deviations. For one of these examples, we show that the rate function of the Cramer-type of large deviations coincides with that of the Freidlin-Wentzell when contraction principles are applied.

  8. Computing the temperature dependence of effective CP violation in the standard model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brauner, Tomas; Taanila, Olli; Tranberg, Anders

    2012-01-01

    CP violation in the standard model originates from the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa mixing matrix. Upon integrating all fermions out of the theory, its effects are captured by a series of effective nonrenormalizable operators for the bosonic gauge and Higgs fields. We compute the CP-violating part...... of the effective action to the leading nontrivial, sixth order in the covariant gradient expansion as a function of temperature. In the limit of zero temperature, our result addresses the discrepancy between two independent calculations existing in the literature [1, 2]. We find that CP violation in the standard...

  9. 16 CFR 680.2 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Examples. 680.2 Section 680.2 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION THE FAIR CREDIT REPORTING ACT AFFILIATE MARKETING § 680.2 Examples. The examples in this part are not exclusive. Compliance with an example, to the extent applicable, constitutes...

  10. 42 CFR 408.26 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Examples. 408.26 Section 408.26 Public Health... PREMIUMS FOR SUPPLEMENTARY MEDICAL INSURANCE Amount of Monthly Premiums § 408.26 Examples. Example 1. Mr. J... 10 percent greater than if he had enrolled in his initial enrollment period. Example 2. Mr. V, who...

  11. 10 CFR 1706.9 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Examples. 1706.9 Section 1706.9 Energy DEFENSE NUCLEAR FACILITIES SAFETY BOARD ORGANIZATIONAL AND CONSULTANT CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS § 1706.9 Examples. The examples in this section illustrate situations in which questions concerning OCIs may arise. The examples are...

  12. 45 CFR 1151.18 - Illustrative examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Illustrative examples. 1151.18 Section 1151.18... Prohibited General § 1151.18 Illustrative examples. (a) The following examples will illustrate the... and offering, for example, a specific event in an inaccessible facility may arrange to provide a...

  13. 78 FR 46851 - Controlled Group Regulation Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-02

    ... Controlled Group Regulation Examples AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Treasury. ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking and notice of public hearing. SUMMARY: This document proposes revisions to examples... include a series of examples, two of which reproduce, nearly verbatim, examples contained in the 1942...

  14. 48 CFR 9.508 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Examples. 9.508 Section 9... CONTRACTOR QUALIFICATIONS Organizational and Consultant Conflicts of Interest 9.508 Examples. The examples in... (e.g., fire control, navigation, etc.). In this example, the system is the powerplant, not the...

  15. 17 CFR 248.102 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 248.102 Section 248... AND S-AM Regulation S-AM: Limitations on Affiliate Marketing § 248.102 Examples. The examples in this subpart are not exclusive. The examples in this subpart provide guidance concerning the rules' application...

  16. 29 CFR 4022.95 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Examples. 4022.95 Section 4022.95 Labor Regulations... IN TERMINATED SINGLE-EMPLOYER PLANS Certain Payments Owed Upon Death § 4022.95 Examples. The following examples show how the rules in §§ 4022.91 through 4022.94 apply. For examples on how these rules...

  17. 29 CFR 4022.104 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Examples. 4022.104 Section 4022.104 Labor Regulations... Future Periods After Death § 4022.104 Examples. The following examples show how the rules in §§ 4022.101.... (1) Example 1: where surviving beneficiary predeceases participant. Ellen died before Charlie. As...

  18. 12 CFR 41.2 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY FAIR CREDIT REPORTING General Provisions § 41.2 Examples. The examples in this part are not exclusive. Compliance with an example, to the extent applicable, constitutes compliance with this part. Examples in a paragraph illustrate only the issue described in the...

  19. Evaluating OO example programs for CS1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Börstler, Jürgen; Christensen, Henrik Bærbak; Bennedsen, Jens

    2008-01-01

    Example programs play an important role in learning to program. They work as templates, guidelines, and inspiration for learners when developing their own programs. It is therefore important to provide learners with high quality examples. In this paper, we discuss properties of example programs...... that might affect the teaching and learning of object-oriented programming. Furthermore, we present an evaluation instrument for example programs and report on initial experiences of its application to a selection of examples from popular introductory programming textbooks....

  20. B decays and models for CP violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Xiao Gang

    1995-12-01

    The decay modes B to π π,υK S , K - D, πK and ηK are promising channels to study the unitarity triangle of the CP violating Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix. The consequences of these measurements in the Weinberg model are discussed. It is shown that measurements of CP violation in B decay can be used to distinguish Standard Model from Weinberg model and that the following different mechanisms for CP violation can be distinguished: 1) CP is violated in the CKM sector only; 2) CP is violated spontaneously in the Higgs sector only; and 3) CP is violated in both the CKM and Higgs sectors. 27 refs., 4 figs

  1. Developing a model system for simulation of changes induced by more effective circular flow concepts in industry and energy management. Systems technology and economic modelling aspects shown with the example of the materials flow in the paper industry; Entwicklung eines Modellsystems zur Simulation der energiewirtschaftlichen und strukturellen Veraenderungen einer verstaerkten Kreislaufwirtschaft. Systemtechnische und oekonomische Modellierung am Beispiel des Stoffstroms 'Papier'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nathani, C.

    2000-02-01

    The impacts of a long-term change from our present industrial society to an economy based on circular flow concepts approaching the characteristics of the concept of sustainable development have to be taken into account in macroeconomic modelling as well, or else there is no appropriate basis for examination and assessment of the effects of various resource management policy options on the economy. One possible methodological approach is to link single, process-oriented models of sectors of the industry with input-output models and macroeconomic models. This study presents an approach using as an example the pulp and paper industry of Germany, covering the period from 1995 until 2020. The results are found to improve the methodological perspective between the process models and the MIS model of the family of IKARUS models and also offer an additional advantage in that they may serve as a data source for other input-output models and macroeconomic modelling. (orig./CB) [German] Diese Einfluesse eines langfristigen Wandels von einer heutigen Industriegesellschaft zu einer Kreislaufwirtschaft mit Merkmalen einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung muessen sich auch in den Strukturen makrooekonomischer Modelle wiederfinden, um die Auswirkungen verschiedener ressourcenpolitischer Optionen auf die Wirtschaft angemessen pruefen zu koennen. Ein methodischer Weg zu dieser Aufgabe ist die Verknuepfung einzelner prozessorientierter Branchenmodelle mit Input-Output-Modellen und makrooekonomischen Modellen. Der vorliegende Bericht will hierzu einen Baustein am Beispiel der Zellstoff- und Papierindustrie fuer die Bundesrepublik Deutschland fuer die Zeitperiode 1995-2020 beitragen. Diese Ergebnisse verbessern nicht nur die methodische Perspektive zwischen den Prozessmodellen und dem MIS-Modell der IKARUS-Modellfamilie, sondern koennen als Erfahrungs- und Datenquelle fuer andere Input-Output-Modelle und makrooekonomische Modelle genutzt werden. (orig.)

  2. Examples of Radiation-Emitting Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Examples of Radiation-Emitting Electronic Products Radiation Use Medical: Diagnostic Medical: Therapeutic Medical: Surgical Medical: Other Scientific, ... FDA Enforcement Authorities for Radiation-Emitting Products (with examples of products) RCHSA Television Receivers, Microwave Ovens, Cabinet ...

  3. Simple Perturbation Example for Quantum Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodfriend, P. L.

    1985-01-01

    Presents a simple example that illustrates various aspects of the Rayleigh-Schrodinger perturbation theory. The example is a particularly good one because it is straightforward and can be compared with both the exact solution and with experimental data. (JN)

  4. 26 CFR 1.1368-3 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Examples. 1.1368-3 Section 1.1368-3 Internal... TAXES Small Business Corporations and Their Shareholders § 1.1368-3 Examples. The principles of §§ 1.1368-1 and 1.1368-2 are illustrated by the examples below. In each example Corporation S is a calendar...

  5. 26 CFR 7.465-5 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 14 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 7.465-5 Section 7.465-5 Internal... INCOME TAX REGULATIONS UNDER THE TAX REFORM ACT OF 1976 § 7.465-5 Examples. The provisions of § 7.465-1 and § 7.465-2 may be illustrated by the following examples: Example (1). J and K, as equal partners...

  6. 26 CFR 20.2013-6 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 14 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 20.2013-6 Section 20.2013-6 Internal...; ESTATES OF DECEDENTS DYING AFTER AUGUST 16, 1954 Credits Against Tax § 20.2013-6 Examples. The application of §§ 20.2013-1 to 20.2013-5 may be further illustrated by the following examples: Example (1). (a) A...

  7. Designing example-critiquing interaction

    OpenAIRE

    Faltings, Boi; Pu, Pearl; Torrens, Marc; Viappiani, Paolo

    2004-01-01

    In many practical scenarios, users are faced with the problem of choosing the most preferred outcome from a large set of possibilities. As people are unable to sift through them manually, decisions support systems are often used to automatically find the optimal solution. A crucial requirement for such a system is to have an accurate model of the user's preferences. Studies have shown that people are usually unable to accurately state their preferences up front, but are greatly helped by seei...

  8. 14 CFR Appendix - Example of SIFL Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Example of SIFL Adjustment Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) POLICY STATEMENTS... taxes for rate purposes. Pt. 399, Subpt. C, Example Example of SIFL Adjustment [Methodology for...

  9. 48 CFR 225.504 - Evaluation examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation examples. 225.504 Section 225.504 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEFENSE ACQUISITION REGULATIONS SYSTEM... 225.504 Evaluation examples. For examples that illustrate the evaluation procedures in 225.502(c)(ii...

  10. 48 CFR 25.504 - Evaluation Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation Examples. 25... PROGRAMS FOREIGN ACQUISITION Evaluating Foreign Offers-Supply Contracts 25.504 Evaluation Examples. The following examples illustrate the application of the evaluation procedures in 25.502 and 25.503. The...

  11. 45 CFR 1170.13 - Illustrative examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Illustrative examples. 1170.13 Section 1170.13... ASSISTED PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES Discrimination Prohibited § 1170.13 Illustrative examples. (a) The following examples will illustrate the application of the foregoing provisions to some of the activities...

  12. Example Sentences in Bilingual School Dictionaries

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    in dictionary articles, different types of example sentences as well as the criteria for example sen- tences in bilingual school dictionaries in order to ensure that the final product is natural, typical, informative, intelligible and of use to the user. Keywords: SCHOOL DICTIONARY, USER, USER NEEDS, EXAMPLE SENTENCE, ...

  13. Evaluating the agreement between measurements and models of net ecosystem exchange at different times and timescales using wavelet coherence: an example using data from the North American Carbon Program Site-Level Interim Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.C. Stoy; M.C. Dietze; A.D. Richardson; R. Vargas; A.G. Barr; R.S. Anderson; M.A. Arain; I.T. Baker; T.A. Black; J.M. Chen; R.B. Cook; C.M. Gough; R.F. Grant; D.Y. Hollinger; R.C. Izaurralde; C.J. Kucharik; P. Lafleur; B.E. Law; S. Liu; E. Lokupitiya; Y. Luo; J. W. Munger; C. Peng; B. Poulter; D.T. Price; D. M. Ricciuto; W. J. Riley; A. K. Sahoo; K. Schaefer; C.R. Schwalm; H. Tian; H. Verbeeck; E. Weng

    2013-01-01

    Earth system processes exhibit complex patterns across time, as do the models that seek to replicate these processes. Model output may or may not be significantly related to observations at different times and on different frequencies. Conventional model diagnostics provide an aggregate view of model-data agreement, but usually do not identify the time and frequency...

  14. Compound flooding: examples, methods, and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.

    2017-12-01

    When different climatic extremes occur simultaneously or in close succession, the impacts to the environment, built infrastructure and society at large are often significantly escalated. These events are collectively referred to as "compound" events. Although they are typically regarded as highly "surprising" when they occur, the dependencies and multi-scale nature of many climate phenomena mean that such events occur much more likely than might be expected by random chance alone. However, despite their high impacts, compound extremes are not, or only poorly covered in current risk analysis frameworks and policy agendas. Floods in particular, which are among the most dangerous and costly natural hazards, are rarely a function of just one driver. Rather, they often arise through the joint occurrence of different source mechanisms. This can include oceanographic drivers such as tides, storm surges, or waves, as well as hydrologic drivers such as rainfall runoff (pluvial) or river discharge (fluvial). Often, two or more of these flood drivers affect the same region and are correlated with each other, which needs to be accounted for in flood risk assessments. This presentation will briefly introduce the different types of compound flooding along with recent examples from around the globe where those high impact events led to substantial damages and loss of lives. A broad overview will be provided of existing statistical modelling tools to identify and simulate dependencies between flood drivers, for example when calculating joint probabilities. Finally, some of the most pressing challenges in developing improved strategies to assess and mitigate the risks of climatic compound extremes, and compound flooding in particular, will be discussed.

  15. Statistics of Parameter Estimates: A Concrete Example

    KAUST Repository

    Aguilar, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Most mathematical models include parameters that need to be determined from measurements. The estimated values of these parameters and their uncertainties depend on assumptions made about noise levels, models, or prior knowledge. But what can we say about the validity of such estimates, and the influence of these assumptions? This paper is concerned with methods to address these questions, and for didactic purposes it is written in the context of a concrete nonlinear parameter estimation problem. We will use the results of a physical experiment conducted by Allmaras et al. at Texas A&M University [M. Allmaras et al., SIAM Rev., 55 (2013), pp. 149-167] to illustrate the importance of validation procedures for statistical parameter estimation. We describe statistical methods and data analysis tools to check the choices of likelihood and prior distributions, and provide examples of how to compare Bayesian results with those obtained by non-Bayesian methods based on different types of assumptions. We explain how different statistical methods can be used in complementary ways to improve the understanding of parameter estimates and their uncertainties.

  16. Natural releases from contaminated groundwater, Example Reference Biosphere 2B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, I.; Naito, M.; Thorne, M.C.; Walke, R.

    2005-01-01

    Safety assessment is a tool which, by means of an iterative procedure, allows the evaluation of the performance of a disposal system and its potential impact on human health and the environment. Radionuclides from a deep geological disposal facility may not reach the surface environment until many tens of thousands of years after closure of the facility. The BIOMASS Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment developed Examples of 'Reference Biospheres' to illustrate the use of the methodology and to demonstrate how biosphere models can be developed and justified as being fit for purpose. The practical examples are also intended to be useful in their own right. The Example Reference Biosphere 2B presented here involves the consideration of alternative types of geosphere-biosphere interfaces and calculation of doses to members of hypothetical exposure groups arising from a wide range of exposure pathways within agricultural and semi-natural environments, but without allowing for evolution of the corresponding biosphere system. The example presented can be used as a generic analysis in some situations although it was developed around a relatively specific conceptual model. It should be a useful practical example, but the above numerical results are not intended to be understood as prescribed biosphere 'conversion factors'

  17. Miro V4.0: example book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morice, O.; Ribeyre, X.; Donnat, Ph.; Porcher, Th.; Treimany, C.; Nassiet, D.; Gallice, G.; Rivoire, V.; L'hullier, N.

    2000-01-01

    This manual presents an ensemble of examples related to the use of the Miro code. It can be used for leaning how to perform simulations with Miro. Furthermore the presented examples are used for checking that new routines added in Miro do not perturb the efficiency of the older ones. In that purpose most of the capabilities of Miro are covered by the examples. (authors)

  18. Neutron electric dipole moment and extension of the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oshimo, Noriyuki

    2001-01-01

    A nonvanishing value for the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the neutron is a prominent signature for CP violation. The EDM induced by the Kobayashi-Maskawa mechanism of the standard model (SM) has a small magnitude and its detection will be very difficult. However, since baryon asymmetry of the universe cannot be accounted for by the SM, there should exist some other source of CP violation, which may generate a large magnitude for the EDM. One of the most hopeful candidates for physics beyond the SM is the supersymmetric standard model, which contains such sources of CP violation. This model suggests that the EDM has a magnitude not much smaller than the present experimental bounds. Progress in measuring the EDM provides very interesting information about extension of the SM. (author)

  19. Regional differences in mitigation strategies: an example for passenger transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries; Girod, Bastien; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper shows the importance of including region-specific circumstances in long-term climate change mitigation strategies, by example of a modeling exercise of the transport sector. Important emission reduction options in the transport sector include biofuels, electric vehicles and efficiency

  20. An Elegant Example of Chemoselective Reaction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Srimath

    is given the least attention in our undergraduate teaching. For this purpose I have chosen the example of the preparation of sulfona-. Keywords. Chemoselectivity, sulfa drugs, sulfonamides, amide hydrolysis. An Elegant Example of Chemoselective Reaction. The Preparation of Sulfonamide Drugs. Gopalpur Nagendrappa.

  1. RFID Malware: Design Principles and Examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rieback, M.R.; Simpson, P.N.D.; Crispo, B.; Tanenbaum, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the concept of malware for Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems - including RFID exploits, RFID worms, and RFID viruses. We present RFID malware design principles together with concrete examples; the highlight is a fully illustrated example of a self-replicating RFID

  2. 26 CFR 1.851-5 - Examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Examples. 1.851-5 Section 1.851-5 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Regulated Investment Companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts § 1.851-5 Examples. The...

  3. Peatlands as Filters for Polluted Mine Water?—A Case Study from an Uranium-Contaminated Karst System in South Africa—Part II: Examples from Literature and a Conceptual Filter Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Winde

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available As the second part of a series of four, this paper reviews a number of case studies of natural uranium attenuation in peat, as well as underlying chemical mechanisms reported in literature. Based on this review, a generic, conceptual, model for peat to act as filter for dissolved uranium (U is developed for guiding subsequent field investigations. The model consists of a chemical and an hydraulic component which is derived largely from data reported in literature as well as from limited field observations. For the chemical model component 10 different processes, each controlled by factors relating to water chemistry, have been identified to govern the attenuation of U in peat via a net balance of immobilization and remobilization. For the hydraulic aspect of the filter model, five different principal modes of U polluted water coming in contact with peat are discussed, focusing on the associated peat-water contact time as a crucial parameter controlling chemical U attenuation. Moreover, links between the two model components are discussed and, based on the integrated conceptual model, possible effects of natural and anthropogenic events on U attenuation in peatlands are outlined. Guided by the model, various site-specific field and laboratory investigations are finally designed to verify how far the identified generic factors and processes are indeed applicable to the Gerhard Minnebron Peatland.

  4. Examples of transport of volcanic ash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bursik, M. I.

    2011-12-01

    Examination of the transport of volcanic aerosol clouds can be implemented by utilizing models for introduction and early stage spread of eruption plumes, and long-range transport. As a plume rises into the atmosphere, it is subject to the atmospheric circulation. Average wind patterns in the troposphere and stratosphere are useful in determining general features of volcanic cloud transport, but daily, seasonal and year to year variance must be taken into account in any one particular case. Tropospheric circulation plays a small role relative to stratospheric circulation, although the effects of the tropospheric portion of eruptions can be significant to catastrophic, as was the case with the April, 2010, eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland. Stratospheric circulation plays an important role in the long-term influence of volcanic aerosol, since residence time is great, due to limited mixing and vertical motion. The eruptions of Eyjafjallajokull and Laki, Iceland; Hudson, Chile; El Chichon, Mexico, and Pinatubo, Phillipines, provide examples of how volcanic clouds interact with the atmospheric circulation. Eruption clouds from low latitudes spread across both hemispheres, while eruption clouds from high latitudes remain in the hemisphere of the eruption. Cloud form and dispersal pattern are determined by season; the shape of a volcanic cloud is altitude dependent. The size of a volcanic cloud in relation to atmospheric eddies is important in determining how it is dispersed.

  5. Radiation transport Part B: Applications with examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beutler, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    In the previous sections Len Lorence has described the need, theory, and types of radiation codes that can be applied to model the results of radiation effects tests or working environments for electronics. For the rest of this segment, the author will concentrate on the specific ways the codes can be used to predict device response or analyze radiation test results. Regardless of whether one is predicting responses in a working or test environment, the procedures are virtually the same. The same can be said for the use of 1-, 2-, or 3-dimensional codes and Monte Carlo or discrete ordinates codes. No attempt is made to instruct the student on the specifics of the code. For example, the author will not discuss the details, such as the number of meshes, energy groups, etc. that are appropriate for a discrete ordinates code. For the sake of simplicity, he will restrict himself to the 1-dimensional code CEPXS/ONELD. This code along with a wide variety of other radiation codes can be obtained form the Radiation Safety Information Computational Center (RSICC) for a nominal handling fee

  6. Material and process selection using product examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker

    2002-01-01

    The objective of the paper is to suggest a different procedure for selecting materials and processes within the product development work. The procedure includes using product examples in order to increase the number of alternative materials and processes that is considered. Product examples can...... communicate information about materials and processes in a very concentrated and effective way. The product examples represent desired material properties but also includes information that can not be associated directly to the material, e.g. functional or perceived attributes. Previous studies suggest....... A database that support the selection procedure has been compiled. It contains uniform descriptions of a wide range of materials and processes. For each of those, good product examples have been identified, described and associated with keywords. Product examples matching the requirements can be found using...

  7. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). Results The instruments under study provide excellent

  8. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrion Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs. The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC or probability integral transform (PIT, and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score. Results The instruments under study

  9. The Weighted Gray Situation Decision-Making Model Based on the Gray Theory of Decision-Making and Its Application -- An Example of Forest Health Park of Hainan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuailin; Bai, Zhiyong

    This paper analyses the complication of influence construction of eco-tourism park decision-making, through study on gray situation theory of decision making establishes an new model of decision-making, -- weighted gray situation decision-making model based on the gray situation theory of decision-making, and on the empirical analysis, it gives a new method of gray situation theory used in decision-making of construction.

  10. Evaluation of strategies against acidification; integrated evaluation models. The example of the IIASA Rains model; L`evaluation des strategies de lutte contre l`acidification, les modeles d`evaluation integree. L`exemple du modele Rains de l`IIasa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landieu, G. [Institut National de l`Environnement Industriel et des Risques, 60 - Verneuil en Halatte (INERIS) (France)

    1997-12-31

    The RAINS (Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation) model has been developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and is aimed at the simulation of the pollution processes leading to the acidification of ecosystems in Europe and at the development and optimization of strategies against acidification. Energy consumption, emission factors, emission geographical distribution, emission reduction technique, atmospheric transfers, ecosystem sensitivity and cost constraints are considered in the model

  11. Modeling and analysis of horizontal structure of a mixed tree stands (on example of sample plots in the «Bastak» nature reserve in the Middle Amur river area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Kolobov

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of the research model and real data spatial distribution of trees in single-species, ages and mixed stands are studied. Modeling of the horizontal structure of the stand was based on a computer simulation model. Investigation of the horizontal structure of the stand allows drawing of conclusions about the processes of intraspecific and interspecific competition. It is shown that the model used to generate spatial data model reflects the basic mechanisms of stacked-mosaic structure of the stand, which is observed in natural communities. It allows future use of this model to study the characteristics of the formation of the spatial structure of mixed forest communities, developing under the influence of internal (competition and external (logging, windfalls, herbivores, etc. factors. Statistical analysis of the tree spatial distribution for shade-tolerant and light-loving species relative to each other showed that, on average, around an arbitrarily chosen shade-tolerant tree species, there is an area within which the opportunity to meet the tree light-loving species is less than it would be under their random placement. Around an arbitrarily chosen «large» tree of shade-tolerant species there is an area within which the opportunity to meet the «small» or «medium» light-loving tree species is less than would have been at their random placement. It is shown that the mutual arrangement of «large» light-loving trees and «small», «medium» shade-tolerant trees is no different from a random allocation. As a result of competitive processes of spatial arrangement for light-loving tree species is determined by the placement of shade-tolerant trees. Location of light-loving trees does not affect the location of shade-tolerant trees. The relative placement of different types of shade-tolerant trees, especially spruce, fir and pine, are independent of each other.

  12. Premixing of corium into water during a Fuel-Coolant Interaction. The models used in the 3 field version of the MC3D code and two examples of validation on Billeau and FARO experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berthoud, G.; Crecy, F. de; Duplat, F.; Meignen, R.; Valette, M. [CEA/Grenoble, DRN/DTP, 17 Avenue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents the <> application of the multiphasic 3D computer code MC3D. This application is devoted to the premixing phase of a Fuel Coolant Interaction (FCI) when large amounts of molten corium flow into water and interact with it. A description of the new features of the model is given (a more complete description of the full model is given in annex). Calculations of Billeau experiments (cold or hot spheres dropped into water) and of a FARO test (<> corium dropped into 5 MPa saturated water) are presented. (author)

  13. Examples and problems in mathematical statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Zacks, Shelemyahu

    2013-01-01

    This book presents examples that illustrate the theory of mathematical statistics and details how to apply the methods for solving problems.  While other books on the topic contain problems and exercises, they do not focus on problem solving. This book fills an important niche in the statistical theory literature by providing a theory/example/problem approach.  Each chapter is divided into four parts: Part I provides the needed theory so readers can become familiar with the concepts, notations, and proven results; Part II presents examples from a variety of fields including engineering, mathem

  14. HTML5 web application development by example

    CERN Document Server

    Gustafson, JM

    2013-01-01

    The best way to learn anything is by doing. The author uses a friendly tone and fun examples to ensure that you learn the basics of application development. Once you have read this book, you should have the necessary skills to build your own applications.If you have no experience but want to learn how to create applications in HTML5, this book is the only help you'll need. Using practical examples, HTML5 Web Application Development by Example will develop your knowledge and confidence in application development.

  15. How to model and simulate the effects of cropping systems on population dynamics and gene flow at the landscape level: example of oilseed rape volunteers and their role for co-existence of GM and non-GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbach, Nathalie

    2009-05-01

    Agricultural landscapes comprise cultivated fields and semi-natural areas. Biological components of these compartments such as weeds, insect pests and pathogenic fungi can disperse sometimes over very large distances, colonise new habitats via insect flight, spores, pollen or seeds and are responsible for losses in crop yield (e.g. weeds, pathogens) and biodiversity (e.g. invasive weeds). The spatiotemporal dynamics of these biological components interact with crop locations, successions and management as well as the location and management of semi-natural areas such as roadverges. The objective of this investigation was to establish a modelling and simulation methodology for describing, analysing and predicting spatiotemporal dynamics and genetics of biological components of agricultural landscapes. The ultimate aim of the models was to evaluate and propose innovative cropping systems adapted to particular agricultural concerns. The method was applied to oilseed rape (OSR) volunteers playing a key role for the coexistence of genetically modified (GM) and non-GM oilseed rape crops, where the adventitious presence of GM seeds in non-GM harvests (AGMP) could result in financial losses for farmers and cooperatives. A multi-year, spatially explicit model was built, using field patterns, climate, cropping systems and OSR varieties as input variables, focusing on processes and cultivation techniques crucial for plant densities and pollen flow. The sensitivity of the model to input variables was analysed to identify the major cropping factors. These should be modified first when searching for solutions limiting gene flow. The sensitivity to model processes and species life-traits were analysed to facilitate the future adaptation of the model to other species. The model was evaluated by comparing its simulations to independent field observations to determine its domain of validity and prediction error. The cropping system study determined contrasted farm types, simulated

  16. Neutron electric dipole moment in the minimal supersymmetric standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inui, T.; Mimura, Y.; Sakai, N.; Sasaki, T.

    1995-01-01

    The neutron electric dipole moment (EDM) due to the single quark EDM and to the transition EDM is calculated in the minimal supersymmetric standard model. Assuming that the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix at the grand unification scale is the only source of CP violation, complex phases are induced in the parameters of soft supersymmetry breaking at low energies. The chargino one-loop diagram is found to give the dominant contribution of the order of 10 -27 similar 10 -29 e.cm for the quark EDM, assuming the light chargino mass and the universal scalar mass to be 50 GeV and 100 GeV, respectively. Therefore the neutron EDM in this class of model is difficult to measure experimentally. The gluino one-loop diagram also contributes due to the flavor changing gluino coupling. The transition EDM is found to give dominant contributions for certain parameter regions. (orig.)

  17. Slope diffusion models and digitally-acquired morphometric parameters yield age constraints on cinder cones, examples from the Spencer High Point and Craters of the Moon National Monument, Snake River Plain, Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaser, A. P.; Holman, R. J.; Brown, D. E.; Willis, J. B.

    2011-12-01

    An analytical solution to a diffusion equation for cinder cones and a new digital method for collecting and comparing morphometric data on cinder cones are developed and used to constrain relative KT ages of undated cinder cones from the Spencer High Point (SHP) basalt plateau, southeastern Idaho. We assume that the interior slope of cinder cone craters diffuse at a steady state and that a range of diffusion constants (K=5-15 m^2/ky) derived in other areas of the Intermountain west are applicable in SE Idaho. Previous workers developed diffusion equations that model degradation of the outer flanks of cinder cones over time. The outer flanks of several SHP cones are heavily eroded by landsliding, a non-diffusive process, which invalidates diffusion modeling. However, our observations of the morphology of cinder cones throughout SE Idaho and comparisons with cones in other regions suggest that the interior slopes of cinder cone craters erode diffusively even when the outer flanks of the cones do not. We model and compare KT ages using morphometric measures from both the exterior flanks and the crater interiors; we conclude that the ages based on interior slopes are more valid than those based on exterior slopes. The topographic profiles, used to derive the necessary morphometric parameters (e.g. slope, slope inflection, cone and crater height/width ratios, and crater radius), are generated in a geographic information system (GIS) from readily available 10-m resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) rather than from topographic maps used by previous workers. We analytically solve diffusion equations for cinder cone degradation and compare the consistency of resulting relative KT ages. The one-dimensional equation models how a single topographic profile degrades through time and depends on a diffusion constant K (m^2/ky) that describes the erosion rate. We assume an initial slope of 33° and allow the model to degrade to the slope of the inflection point in the crater

  18. Consumer Social Responsibility: Example of Cycling Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesevičiūtė-Ufartienė Laima

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents research on consumer social responsibility based on the example of cycling service. The author analyses the tourism sector determining a relation between socially responsible behaviour of an organization and consumer behaviour.

  19. Tribal Green Building Administrative Code Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    This Tribal Green Building Administrative Code Example can be used as a template for technical code selection (i.e., building, electrical, plumbing, etc.) to be adopted as a comprehensive building code.

  20. Didaktikogenic Misconception in Physics: An Example

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 21; Issue 4. Didaktikogenic Misconception in Physics: An Example. Dhrubajyoti Chattopadhyay. Classroom Volume 21 Issue 4 April 2016 pp 381-386. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  1. An Elegant Example of Chemoselective Reaction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 13; Issue 10. An Elegant Example of a Chemoselective Reaction - The Preparation of Sulfonamide Drugs. Gopalpur Nagendrappa. General Article Volume 13 Issue 10 October ... Keywords. Chemoselectivity; sulfa drugs; sulfonamides; amide hydrolysis.

  2. When greediness fails: examples from stochastic scheduling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uetz, Marc Jochen

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present examples for the sometimes surprisingly different behavior of deterministic and stochastic scheduling problems. In particular, it demonstrates some seemingly counterintuitive properties of optimal scheduling policies for stochastic machine scheduling problems.

  3. Example sentences in bilingual specialised dictionaries assisting ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Specialised lexicography, online dictionaries, printed dictionaries, technical dictionaries, specialised communication, examples, lexicographical functions, text production, user needs, writing, translation. Voorbeeldsinne in tweetalige vakwoordeboeke help met kommunikasie in 'n vreemde taal. Praktisyns ...

  4. Bridge Design to Eurocodes – Worked examples

    OpenAIRE

    BOUASSIDA Yorsa; BOUCHON Emmanuel; CRESPO Pilar; CROCE Pietro; DAVAINE Laurence; DENTON Steve; FELDMANN Markus; FRANK Roger; HANSWILLE Gerhard; HENSEN Wolfang; KOLIAS Basil; MALAKATAS Nikolaos; MANCINI Giuseppe; ORTEGA CORNEJO Miguel; SEDLACEK Gerhard

    2011-01-01

    This document is a Technical Report with worked examples for a bridge structure designed following the Eurocodes. It summarizes important points of the Eurocodes for the design of concrete, steel and composite road bridges, including foundations and seismic design, utilizing a common bridge project as a basis. The geometry and materials of the example bridge as well as the main assumptions and the detailed structural calculations are presented in the first chapter of the report. Each of ...

  5. Killer "Killer Examples" for Design Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caspersen, Michael Edelgaard; Alphonce, Carl; Decker, Adrienne

    2007-01-01

    Giving students an appreciation of the benefits of using design patterns and an ability to use them effectively in developing code presents several interesting pedagogical challenges. This paper discusses pedagogical lessons learned at the "Killer Examples" for Design Patterns and Objects First...... series of workshops held at the Object Oriented Programming, Systems, Languages and Applications (OOPSLA) conference over the past four years. It also showcases three "killer examples" which can be used to support the teaching of design patterns....

  6. THE POSSIBILITIES OF USING HEC-RAS SOFTWARE FOR MODELLING HYDRAULIC CONDITIONS OF WATER FLOW IN THE FISH PASS EXAMPLED BY THE POMIŁOWO BARRAGE ON THE WIEPRZA RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateusz Hammerling

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to analyse hydraulic conditions of water flow in a fish pass. The test facility is part of the Pomiłowo barrage in the commune of Sławno, Poland. The authors applied HEC-RAS software for modelling hydraulic parameters of the water flow in the fish pass. The data from field measurements was implemented in the software and calculations of changes in the water table in the fish pass were made. The results confirmed the usefulness of HEC-RAS software for estimating hydraulic parameters of water flow in a fish pass. HEC-RAS software enables to take into account the parameters responsible for the phenomena accompanying the flow through a fish pass. Selecting mathematical model parameters (coefficients should be preceded by a multidimensional analysis of the facility. More precise information on hydraulics, hydrology and biology of the test fish pass are also required.

  7. 3D architecture modeling of reservoir compartments in a Shingled Turbidite Reservoir using high-resolution seismic data and sparse well control, example from Mars {open_quotes}Pink{close_quotes} reservoir, Mississippi Canyon Area, Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapin, M.A.; Mahaffie, M.J.; Tiller, G.M. [Shell Exploration and Production Technology Co., Houston, TX (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Economics of most deep-water development projects require large reservoir volumes to be drained with relatively few wells. The presence of reservoir compartments must therefore be detected and planned for in a pre-development stage. We have used 3-D seismic data to constrain large-scale, deterministic reservoir bodies in a 3-D architecture model of Pliocene-turbidite sands of the {open_quotes}E{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}Pink{close_quotes} reservoir, Prospect Mars, Mississippi Canyon Areas 763 and 807, Gulf of Mexico. Reservoir compartmentalization is influenced by stratigraphic shingling, which in turn is caused by low accommodation space predentin the upper portion of a ponded seismic sequence within a salt withdrawal mini-basin. The accumulation is limited by updip onlap onto a condensed section marl, and by lateral truncation by a large scale submarine erosion surface. Compartments were suggested by RFT pressure variations and by geochemical analysis of RFT fluid samples. A geological interpretation derived from high-resolution 3-D seismic and three wells was linked to 3-D architecture models through seismic inversion, resulting in a reservoir all available data. Distinguishing subtle stratigraphical shingles from faults was accomplished by detailed, loop-level mapping, and was important to characterize the different types of reservoir compartments. Seismic inversion was used to detune the seismic amplitude, adjust sandbody thickness, and update the rock properties. Recent development wells confirm the architectural style identified. This modeling project illustrates how high-quality seismic data and architecture models can be combined in a pre-development phase of a prospect, in order to optimize well placement.

  8. 3D architecture modeling of reservoir compartments in a Shingled Turbidite Reservoir using high-resolution seismic data and sparse well control, example from Mars [open quotes]Pink[close quotes] reservoir, Mississippi Canyon Area, Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapin, M.A.; Mahaffie, M.J.; Tiller, G.M. (Shell Exploration and Production Technology Co., Houston, TX (United States))

    1996-01-01

    Economics of most deep-water development projects require large reservoir volumes to be drained with relatively few wells. The presence of reservoir compartments must therefore be detected and planned for in a pre-development stage. We have used 3-D seismic data to constrain large-scale, deterministic reservoir bodies in a 3-D architecture model of Pliocene-turbidite sands of the [open quotes]E[close quotes] or [open quotes]Pink[close quotes] reservoir, Prospect Mars, Mississippi Canyon Areas 763 and 807, Gulf of Mexico. Reservoir compartmentalization is influenced by stratigraphic shingling, which in turn is caused by low accommodation space predentin the upper portion of a ponded seismic sequence within a salt withdrawal mini-basin. The accumulation is limited by updip onlap onto a condensed section marl, and by lateral truncation by a large scale submarine erosion surface. Compartments were suggested by RFT pressure variations and by geochemical analysis of RFT fluid samples. A geological interpretation derived from high-resolution 3-D seismic and three wells was linked to 3-D architecture models through seismic inversion, resulting in a reservoir all available data. Distinguishing subtle stratigraphical shingles from faults was accomplished by detailed, loop-level mapping, and was important to characterize the different types of reservoir compartments. Seismic inversion was used to detune the seismic amplitude, adjust sandbody thickness, and update the rock properties. Recent development wells confirm the architectural style identified. This modeling project illustrates how high-quality seismic data and architecture models can be combined in a pre-development phase of a prospect, in order to optimize well placement.

  9. Possibilities of government, business and education interaction and collaboration in the framework of the «triple helix» model on the example of agroindustrial complex of Transbaikal region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktoriya Viktorovna Akberdina

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with questions on cross-sector cooperation between the government, business and education as part of an innovative model of «triple helix», by implementing state programs of development of agriculture in Transbaikal region. «Triple helix» model is organized in accordance with the principles of intersection of three sets of relationships; it describes innovative development through the dynamics of relations between science (education, business and government (represented by the Cabinet at national and regional levels. «Double helix» of cross-sectoral interactions in the regions where the innovation network is not developed enough, are regarded as an evolutionary step in the development of the full «triple helix». Alignment of competent cross-sectoral interactions and designing of institutes in «double helix» (state-to-business, state-to-science (education, business-to-science (education is the key to the formation of an innovational tripartite model.

  10. Study of medical education in 3D surgical modeling by surgeons with free open-source software: Example of mandibular reconstruction with fibula free flap and creation of its surgical guides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganry, L; Hersant, B; Bosc, R; Leyder, P; Quilichini, J; Meningaud, J P

    2018-02-27

    Benefits of 3D printing techniques, biomodeling and surgical guides are well known in surgery, especially when the same surgeon who performed the surgery participated in the virtual surgical planning. Our objective was to evaluate the transfer of know how of a neutral 3D surgical modeling free open-source software protocol to surgeons with different surgical specialities. A one-day training session was organised in 3D surgical modeling applied to one mandibular reconstruction case with fibula free flap and creation of its surgical guides. Surgeon satisfaction was analysed before and after the training. Of 22 surgeons, 59% assessed the training as excellent or very good and 68% considered changing their daily surgical routine and would try to apply our open-source software protocol in their department after a single training day. The mean capacity in using the software improved from 4.13 on 10 before to 6.59 on 10 after training for OsiriX ® software, from 1.14 before to 5.05 after training for Meshlab ® , from 0.45 before to 4.91 after training for Netfabb ® and from 1.05 before and 4.41 after training for Blender ® . According to surgeons, using the software Blender ® became harder as the day went on. Despite improvement in the capacity in using software for all participants, more than a single training day is needed for the transfer of know how on 3D modeling with open-source software. Although the know-how transfer, overall satisfaction, actual learning outcomes and relevance of this training were appropriated, a longer training including different topics will be needed to improve training quality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: the example of Bulgaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos, Angel Manuel; Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

    2013-07-26

    The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Dolomitization of carbonated reservoirs of platforms. From geologic data to modeling. Example of the great Bahama bank; La dolomitisation des reservoirs carbonates de plate-forme. Des donnees geologiques a la modelisation. Exemple du Grand Banc des Bahamas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caspard, E.

    2002-09-01

    Dolomitization has long been one of the most studied geological processes because of its economic interest (dolomitic rocks form a significant share of hydrocarbon reservoirs) as well as its academic interest, based on the fact that dolomite scarcely forms in current and recent marine environments whereas seawater is highly over-saturated; and that it is still not possible to synthesize it in laboratory under the same conditions. We used data collected by the University of Miami (Bahamas Drilling Project, ODP Leg 166) to understand the geological context of complete dolomitization of a Messinian 60 m thick reef unit. Classical methods of petrographic analysis of thin sections (optical microscopy, cathodoluminescence, scanning electron microscopy, in situ isotopic analyze using ionic microprobe) showed that the intensity of dolomitization is not controlled by the initial texture of the sediment, that the key parameter for dolomitization is the conservation of the initial mineralogy of magnesian bio-clasts, and that redox conditions, salinity and/or temperature of the precipitation fluid varied significantly during the process. Hydrodynamic modelling showed that during periods of high sea-level, Kohout thermal convection is a viable mechanism for driving marine fluids through the sediments. The key parameter for fluid circulations is the permeability anisotropy on the platform scale. Geochemical modelling showed that seawater is able to induce a complete dolomitization over durations of around one million years. Sensitivity tests showed that the critical parameter (as well as one of the less well-known) to describe diagenetic processes in carbonates is the water/rock reactions kinetics and in particular the precipitation kinetics of carbonate minerals. We finally propose that the dolomitization of the reef unit of the Unda well took place during the high sea-level period which extended over 1,1 My in the early Pliocene, according to the Kohout thermal convection

  13. 3-D architecture modeling using high-resolution seismic data and sparse well control: Example from the Mars {open_quotes}Pink{close_quotes} reservoir, Mississippi Canyon Area, Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapin, M.A.; Tiller, G.M.; Mahaffie, M.J.

    1996-12-31

    Economic considerations of the deep-water turbidite play, in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere, require large reservoir volumes to be drained by relatively few, very expensive wells. Deep-water development projects to date have been planned on the basis of high-quality 3-D seismic data and sparse well control. The link between 3-D seismic, well control, and the 3-D geological and reservoir architecture model are demonstrated here for Pliocene turbidite sands of the {open_quotes}Pink{close_quotes} reservoir, Prospect Mars, Mississippi Canyon Areas 763 and 807, Gulf of Mexico. This information was used to better understand potential reservoir compartments for development well planning.

  14. Urban index modelling for forecasting of channeled natural gas market: an example in Sao Paulo metropolitan region; Modelagem de indicadores urbanos para previsao do mercado de gas natural canalizado: um exemplo na regiao metropolitana de Sao Paulo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massara, Vanessa Meloni; Faga, Murilo Tadeu Werneck; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales [Universidade Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Programa Interunidades de Pos Graduacao em Energia]. E-mail: vmassara@iee.usp.br; murfaga@iee.usp.br; udaeta@pea.usp.br

    2006-07-01

    This paper aims to present a systemic model for analysis of the expansion and grow up of the natural gas distribution pipeline in a city. This methodology integrates the understanding of the urban dynamics to the strategies of expansion in the natural gas distribution network, through the grouping of information such as family income, demographic density and construction area, percentage of land use, number of households as well as commercial, service and industrial establishments, number of real state as well as indicative information released by the Urban Plan of the city regarding the increments in the peripheral districts. Relating the gas consumption esteemed by each type of land occupation and the cost for expanding the gas distribution network, the model will indicate, for each neighborhood, the viability of implementing a gas network as well as the places with potential for growing density in the existing gas distribution system. The aim is to propose an integration of aspects of city dynamics and new energy source development, taking the advance of natural gas in Sao Paulo Metropolitan area as a specific case study. Through the analysis of highly industrialized, residential and commercial suburbs of the City of Sao Caetano do Sul, the importance of urban parameters in the decision making process for network expansion is identified. (author)

  15. Examples from Astronomy for High School Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    A formal course in physics is increasingly becoming a standard requirement in the high school curriculum. With that dissemination comes the challenge of reaching and motivating a population that is more diverse in their academic abilities and intrinsic motivation. The abstract nature of pure physics is often made more accessible when motivated by examples from everyday life, and providing copious mathematical as well as conceptual examples has become standard practice in high school physics textbooks. Astronomy is a naturally captivating subject and astronomical examples are often successful in capturing the curiosity of high school students as well as the general population. This project seeks to diversify the range of pedagogical materials available to the high school physics instructor by compiling and publishing specific examples where an astronomical concept can be used to motivate the physics curriculum. This collection of examples will consist of both short problems suitable for daily homework assignments as well as longer project style activities. Collaborations are encouraged and inquiries should be directed to sdieterich at carnegiescience dot edu.This work is funded by the NSF Astronomy and Astrophysics Postdoctoral Fellowship Program through NSF grant AST-1400680.

  16. Past and current sediment dispersion pattern estimates through numerical modeling of wave climate: an example of the Holocene delta of the Doce River, Espírito Santo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abílio C.S.P. Bittencourt

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a numerical modeling estimation of the sediment dispersion patterns caused by waves inciding through four distinct coastline contours of the delta plain of the Doce River during the Late Holocene. For this, a wave climate model based on the construction of wave refraction diagrams, as a function of current boundary conditions, was defined and was assumed to be valid for the four coastlines. The numerical modeling was carried out on basis of the refraction diagrams, taking into account the angle of approximation and the wave height along the coastline. The results are shown to be comparable with existing data regarding the directions of net longshore drift of sediments estimated from the integration of sediment cores, interpretation of aerial photographs and C14 datings. This fact apparently suggests that, on average, current boundary conditions appear to have remained with the same general characteristics since 5600 cal yr BP to the present. The used approach may prove useful to evaluate the sediment dispersion patterns during the Late Holocene in the Brazilian east-northeast coastal region.O presente trabalho apresenta uma estimativa, por modelagem numérica, dos padrões de dispersão de sedimentos causados por ondas ao longo de quatro distintos traçados da linha decosta durante o Holoceno Tardio na planície deltaica do Rio Doce. Para tanto, foi definido um modelo de clima de ondas baseado na construção de diagramas de refração de ondas, em função das condições de contorno atuais, que foi assumido como válido para as quatro linhas de costa. A modelagem numérica foi realizada a partir dos diagramas de refração, levando-se em conta o ângulo de aproximação e a altura da onda ao longo da linha de costa. Os resultados obtidos mostraram-se compatíveis com os dados existentes relativos aos sentidos da deriva litorânea efetiva de sedimentos estimados a partir da integração de testemunhos de vibra

  17. Material and process selection using product examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker

    2002-01-01

    The objective of the paper is to suggest a different procedure for selecting materials and processes within the product development work. The procedure includes using product examples in order to increase the number of alternative materials and processes that is considered. Product examples can...... communicate information about materials and processes in a very concentrated and effective way. The product examples represent desired material properties but also includes information that can not be associated directly to the material, e.g. functional or perceived attributes. Previous studies suggest...... that designers often limit their selection of materials and processes to a few well-known ones. Designers need to expand the solution space by considering more materials and processes. But they have to be convinced that the materials and processes are likely candidates that are worth investing time in exploring...

  18. Material and process selection using product examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the paper is to suggest a different procedure for selecting materials and processes within the product development work. The procedure includes using product examples in order to increase the number of alternative materials and processes that is considered. Product examples can...... communicate information about materials and processes in a very concentrated and effective way. The product examples represent desired material properties but also includes information that can not be associated directly to the material, e.g. functional or perceived attributes. Previous studies suggest...... that designers often limit their selection of materials and processes to a few well-known ones. Designers need to expand the solution space by considering more materials and processes. But they have to be convinced that the materials and processes are likely candidates that are worth investing time in exploring...

  19. Yolk-shell gold nanoparticles as model materials for support-effect studies in heterogeneous catalysis: Au, @C and Au, @ZrO2 for CO oxidation as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeano, Carolina; Güttel, Robert; Paul, Michael; Arnal, Pablo; Lu, An-Hui; Schüth, Ferdi

    2011-07-18

    The use of nanostructured yolk-shell materials offers a way to discriminate support and particle-size effects for mechanistic studies in heterogeneous catalysis. Herein, gold yolk-shell materials have been synthesized and used as model catalysts for the investigation of support effects in CO oxidation. Carbon has been selected as catalytically inert support to study the intrinsic activity of the gold nanoparticles, and for comparison, zirconia has been used as oxidic support. Au, @C materials have been synthesized through nanocasting using two different nonporous-core@mesoporous-shell exotemplates: Au@SiO(2)@ZrO(2) and Au@SiO(2)@m-SiO(2). The catalytic activity of Au, @C with a gold core of about 14 nm has been evaluated and compared with Au, @ZrO(2) of the same gold core size. The strong positive effect of metal oxide as support material on the activity of gold has been proved. Additionally, size effects were investigated using carbon as support to determine only the contribution of the nanoparticle size on the catalytic activity of gold. Therefore, Au, @C with a gold core of about 7 nm was studied showing a less pronounced positive effect on the activity than the metal oxide support effect. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Regional differences in mitigation strategies: an example for passenger transport

    OpenAIRE

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries; Girod, Bastien; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper shows the importance of including region-specific circumstances in long-term climate change mitigation strategies, by example of a modeling exercise of the transport sector. Important emission reduction options in the transport sector include biofuels, electric vehicles and efficiency standards. The most effective combination of these options depends, among others, on the availability of biofuels, the effectiveness of efficiency standards, and the (expected) emission intensity of t...