WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling demographic response

  1. Demographic Modelling in Weed Biocontrol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption. Therefore, this approach has the potential to guide the pre-release selection...

  2. TU-C-12A-09: Modeling Pathologic Response of Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer to Chemo-Radiotherapy Using Quantitative PET/CT Features, Clinical Parameters and Demographics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, H; Chen, W; Kligerman, S; D’Souza, W; Suntharalingam, M; Lu, W [University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Tan, S [Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (China); Kim, G [Duke University, High Point, NC (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To develop predictive models using quantitative PET/CT features for the evaluation of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer. Methods: This study included 20 patients who underwent tri-modality therapy (CRT + surgery) and had {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans before initiation of CRT and 4-6 weeks after completion of CRT but prior to surgery. Four groups of tumor features were examined: (1) conventional PET/CT response measures (SUVmax, tumor diameter, etc.); (2) clinical parameters (TNM stage, histology, etc.) and demographics; (3) spatial-temporal PET features, which characterize tumor SUV intensity distribution, spatial patterns, geometry, and associated changes resulting from CRT; and (4) all features combined. An optimal feature set was identified with recursive feature selection and cross-validations. Support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) models were constructed for prediction of pathologic tumor response to CRT, using cross-validations to avoid model over-fitting. Prediction accuracy was assessed via area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and precision was evaluated via confidence intervals (CIs) of AUC. Results: When applied to the 4 groups of tumor features, the LR model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.10), 0.73 (0.07), 0.90 (0.06), and 0.90 (0.06). The SVM model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.56 (0.07), 0.60 (0.06), 0.94 (0.02), and 1.00 (no misclassifications). Using spatial-temporal PET features combined with conventional PET/CT measures and clinical parameters, the SVM model achieved very high accuracy (AUC 1.00) and precision (no misclassifications), significantly better than using conventional PET/CT measures or clinical parameters and demographics alone. For groups with a large number of tumor features (groups 3 and 4), the SVM model achieved significantly higher accuracy than the LR model. Conclusion: The SVM model using all features

  3. Demographic responses of Daphnia magna fed transgenic Bt-maize

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The food/feed quality of a variety of genetically modified (GM) maize expressing Cry1Ab Bt-toxin was tested over the life-cycle of Daphnia magna, an arthropod commonly used as model organism in ecotoxicological studies. Demographic responses were compared between animals fed GM or unmodified (UM) near isogenic maize, with and without the addition of predator smell. Age-specific data on survival and birth rates were integrated and analysed using life tables and Leslie matrices. Survival, fecun...

  4. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqi Li

    Full Text Available In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1 Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2 Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3 Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1 onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  5. Demographic response of northern spotted owls to barred owl removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diller, V. Lowell; Hamm, Keith A; Early, Desiree A; Lamphear, David W; Katie Dugger,; Yackulic, Charles B.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Carlson, Peter C.; McDonald, Trent L.

    2016-01-01

    Federally listed as threatened in 1990 primarily because of habitat loss, the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) has continued to decline despite conservation efforts resulting in forested habitat being reserved throughout its range. Recently, there is growing evidence the congeneric invasive barred owl (Strix varia) may be responsible for the continued decline primarily by excluding spotted owls from their preferred habitat. We used a long-term demographic study for spotted owls in coastal northern California as the basis for a pilot barred owl removal experiment. Our demography study used capture–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected from 1990 to 2013 to evaluate trends in vital rates and populations. We used a classic before-after-control-impact (BACI) experimental design to investigate the demographic response of northern spotted owls to the lethal removal of barred owls. According to the best 2-species dynamic occupancy model, there was no evidence of differences in barred or northern spotted owl occupancy prior to the initiation of the treatment (barred owl removal). After treatment, barred owl occupancy was lower in the treated relative to the untreated areas and spotted owl occupancy was higher relative to the untreated areas. Barred owl removal decreased spotted owl territory extinction rates but did not affect territory colonization rates. As a result, spotted owl occupancy increased in the treated area and continued to decline in the untreated areas. Prior to and after barred owl removal, there was no evidence that average fecundity differed on the 2 study areas. However, the greater number of occupied spotted owl sites on the treated areas resulted in greater productivity in the treated areas based on empirical counts of fledged young. Prior to removal, survival was declining at a rate of approximately 0.2% per year for treated and untreated areas. Following treatment, estimated survival was 0.859 for

  6. Conversion of Verbal Response Scales: Robustness Across Demographic Categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeJonge, Tineke; Veenhoven, Ruut; Moonen, Linda; Kalmijn, Wim; van Beuningen, Jacqueline; Arends, Lidia

    Happiness and life satisfaction have traditionally been measured using verbal response scales, however, these verbal scales have not kept up with the present trend to use numerical response scales. A switch from a verbal scale to a numerical scale, however, causes a severe problem for trend analyses, due to the incomparability of the old and new measurements. The Reference Distribution Method is a method that has been developed recently to deal with this comparison problem. In this method use is made of a reference distribution based on responses to a numerical scale which is used to decide at which point verbally labelled response options transit from one state to another, for example from 'happy' to 'very happy'. Next, for each wave of the time series in which the verbal scale is used, a population mean is estimated for the beta distribution that fits best to these transition points and the responses in this wave. These estimates are on a level that is comparable to that of the mean of the reference distribution and are appropriate for use in an extended time series based on the responses measured using a verbal and a numerical scale. In this paper we address the question of whether the transition points derived for the general population can be used for demographic categories to produce reliable, extended time series to monitor differences in trends among these categories. We conclude that this is possible and that it is not necessary to derive transition points for each demographic category separately.

  7. Development of a physiology-directed population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model for characterizing the impact of genetic and demographic factors on clopidogrel response in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xi-Ling; Samant, Snehal; Lewis, Joshua P; Horenstein, Richard B; Shuldiner, Alan R; Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M; Peletier, Lambertus A; Lesko, Lawrence J; Schmidt, Stephan

    2016-01-20

    Clopidogrel (Plavix®), is a widely used antiplatelet agent, which shows high inter-individual variability in treatment response in patients following the standard dosing regimen. In this study, a physiology-directed population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model was developed based on clopidogrel and clopidogrel active metabolite (clop-AM) data from the PAPI and the PGXB2B studies using a step-wise approach in NONMEM (version 7.2). The developed model characterized the in vivo disposition of clopidogrel, its bioactivation into clop-AM in the liver and subsequent platelet aggregation inhibition in the systemic circulation reasonably well. It further allowed the identification of covariates that significantly impact clopidogrel's dose-concentration-response relationship. In particular, CYP2C19 intermediate and poor metabolizers converted 26.2% and 39.5% less clopidogrel to clop-AM, respectively, compared to extensive metabolizers. In addition, CES1 G143E mutation carriers have a reduced CES1 activity (82.9%) compared to wild-type subjects, which results in a significant increase in clop-AM formation. An increase in BMI was found to significantly decrease clopidogrel's bioactivation, whereas increased age was associated with increased platelet reactivity. Our PK/PD model analysis suggests that, in order to optimize clopidogrel dosing on a patient-by-patient basis, all of these factors have to be considered simultaneously, e.g. by using quantitative clinical pharmacology tools.

  8. An age structured demographic model of technology

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J -F

    2013-01-01

    At the heart of technology transitions lie complex processes of technology choices. Understanding and planning sustainability transitions requires modelling work, which necessitates a theory of technology substitution. A theoretical model of technological change and turnover is presented, intended as a methodological paradigm shift from widely used conventional modelling approaches such as cost optimisation. It follows the tradition of evolutionary economics and evolutionary game theory, using ecological population growth dynamics to represent the evolution of technology populations in the marketplace, with substitutions taking place at the level of the decision-maker. Extended to use principles of human demography or the age structured evolution of species in interacting ecosystems, this theory is built from first principles, and through an appropriate approximation, reduces to a form identical to empirical models of technology diffusion common in the technology transitions literature. Using an age structure...

  9. The demographic response to Holocene climate change in the Sahara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Katie; Timpson, Adrian

    2014-10-01

    The timing and development of Holocene human occupation in the now hyperarid Sahara has major implications for understanding links between climate change, demography and cultural adaptation. Here we use summed probability distributions from 3287 calibrated 14C dates from 1011 archaeological sites to demonstrate a major and rapid demographic shift between 10,500 and 5500 years BP. This event corresponds with the African Humid Period (AHP) and is sub-continental in scale, indicating climate as the prime factor driving broad-scale population dynamics in northern Africa. Furthermore, by providing a high temporal resolution proxy for effective carrying capacity our population curve offers an independent estimate of environmental change in northern Africa, indicating a temporal delay in the terrestrial response to atmospheric climate change. These results highlight the degree to which human demography is a function of environment at the appropriate scale of observation in both time and space and sheds important new light on the social response to global environmental change.

  10. Hyperstate matrix models : extending demographic state spaces to higher dimensions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roth, G.; Caswell, H.

    2016-01-01

    1. Demographic models describe population dynamics in terms of the movement of individuals among states (e.g. size, age, developmental stage, parity, frailty, physiological condition). Matrix population models originally classified individuals by a single characteristic. This was enlarged to two cha

  11. Demographic model of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Galeta

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Several recent lines of evidence indicate more intensive contact between LBK farmers and indigenous foragers in Central Europe (5600–5400 calBC. Strong continuity has been identified between Mesolithic and Neolithic material cultures; faunal assemblages, and isotopic analyses of diet have revealed a greater role of hunting in LBK communities; genetic analyses have suggested that the modern Central European gene pool is mainly of Palaeolithic origin. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to demographic aspects of the Neolithic transition. In our study, demographic simulations were performed to assess the demographic conditions that would allow LBK farmers to spread across central Europe without any admixture with Mesolithic foragers. We constructed a stochastic demographic model of changes in farming population size. Model parameters were constrained by data from human demography, archaeology, and human ecology. Our results indicate that the establishment of farming communities in Central Europe without an admixture with foragers was highly improbable. The demographic conditions necessary for colonization were beyond the potential of the Neolithic population. Our study supports the integrationists’ view of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe.

  12. Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postnikov, E. B.

    2015-07-01

    The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and education level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enables the system to be reduced to one nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.

  13. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator-prey models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, U.; Täuber, U. C.

    2013-10-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka-Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization.

  14. Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

    2015-12-01

    Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular

  15. Evidence of local adaptation in the demographic response of American ginseng to interannual temperature variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souther, Sara; McGraw, James B

    2011-10-01

    Bioclimatic envelope models of species' responses to climate change are used to predict how species will respond to increasing temperatures. These models are frequently based on the assumption that the northern and southern boundaries of a species' range define its thermal niche. However, this assumption may be violated if populations are adapted to local temperature regimes and have evolved population-specific thermal optima. Considering the prevalence of local adaptation, the assumption of a species-wide thermal optimum may be violated for many species. We used spatially and temporally extensive demographic data for American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) to examine range-wide variation in response of population growth rate (λ) to climatic factors. Our results suggest adaptation to local temperature, but not precipitation. For each population, λ was maximized when annual temperatures were similar to site-specific, long-term mean temperatures. Populations from disparate climatic zones responded differently to temperature variation, and there was a linear relation between population-level thermal optima and the 30-year mean temperature at each site. For species that are locally adapted to temperature, bioclimatic envelope models may underestimate the extent to which increasing temperatures will decrease population growth rate. Because any directional change from long-term mean temperatures will decrease population growth rates, all populations throughout a species' range will be adversely affected by temperature increase, not just populations at southern and low-elevation boundaries. Additionally, when a species' local thermal niche is narrower than its range-wide thermal niche, a smaller temperature increase than would be predicted by bioclimatic envelope approaches may be sufficient to decrease population growth.

  16. Economisation of the Education System in Shrinking Regions? The Demographic Responsiveness of Education Demand and Supply at Different Levels of the Education System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dr. Walter Bartl

    2013-01-01

    .... These strategies are, however, not always (directly) attributable to demographic decline. Moreover, there is considerable variation in the demographic responsiveness of education demand and supply...

  17. Exploring Demographic Shifts: Aging and Migration Exploratory Group Model Specification & Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Logtens, T.; Gijsbers, G.

    2011-01-01

    Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as

  18. Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Muttarak, Raya

    2017-03-01

    In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.

  19. Demographic transition and the dynamics of measles in six provinces in China: A modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng; Ma, Chao; Hao, Lixin; Su, Qiru; An, Zhijie; Ma, Fubao; Xie, Shuyun; Xu, Aiqiang; Zhang, Yanyang; Ding, Zhengrong; Li, Hui; Cairns, Lisa; Wang, Huaqing; Luo, Huiming; Wang, Ning; Li, Li; Ferrari, Matthew J

    2017-04-01

    changes in response to both demographic and vaccination processes. Combining both processes in a novel catalytic model, we illustrate that age-specific incidence patterns reveal regional differences in the progress to measles elimination and the impact of vaccination controls in China. The shift in the age distribution of measles susceptibility in response to demographic and vaccination processes emphasizes the importance of progressive control strategies and measures to evaluate program success that anticipate and react to this transition in observed incidence.

  20. Developmental trajectories toward violence in middle childhood: course, demographic differences, and response to school-based intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aber, J Lawrence; Brown, Joshua L; Jones, Stephanie M

    2003-03-01

    The present study addressed 3 questions concerning (a) the course of developmental trajectories toward violence over middle childhood, (b) whether and how the course of these trajectories differed by demographic subgroups of children, and (c) how responsive these trajectories were to a universal, school-based preventive intervention. Four waves of data on features of children's social-emotional development known to forecast aggression/violence were collected in the fall and spring over 2 years for a highly representative sample of 1st to 6th grade children from New York City public elementary schools (N = 11,160). Using hierarchical linear modeling techniques, synthetic growth curves were estimated for the entire sample and were conditioned on child demographic characteristics (gender, family economic resources, race/ethnicity) and amount of exposure to components of the preventive intervention. Three patterns of growth--positive linear, late acceleration, and gradual deceleration--characterized the children's trajectories, and these trajectories varied meaningfully by child demographic characteristics. Most important, children whose teachers taught a high number of lessons in the conflict resolution curriculum demonstrated positive changes in their social-emotional developmental trajectories and deflections from a path toward future aggression and violence.

  1. WeedML: a Tool for Collaborative Weed Demographic Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Holst, Niels

    2010-01-01

    WeedML is a proposed standard to formulate models of weed demography, or maybe even complex models in general, that are both transparent and straightforward to re-use as building blocks for new models. The paper describes the design and thoughts behind WeedML which relies on XML and object-oriented systems development. Proof-of-concept software is provided as open-source C++ code and executables that can be downloaded freely.

  2. Multigenerational demographic responses of sexual and asexual Artemia to chronic genotoxicity by a reference mutagen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukumaran, Sandhya; Grant, Alastair

    2013-11-15

    Genotoxins are capable of multigenerational impacts on natural populations via DNA damage and mutations. Sexual reproduction is assumed to reduce the long term consequences of genotoxicity for individual fitness and should therefore reduce population level effects. However, rather few empirical studies have quantified the magnitude of this effect. We tried to analyse the multigenerational demographic responses of sexual Artemia franciscana and asexual Artemia parthenogenetica due to chronic genotoxicity by a reference mutagen, ethyl methane sulfonate (EMS). A prospective (elasticity analysis) and retrospective (differences and contributions) perturbation analysis was carried out to understand the interactions of life history traits with population growth rate λ by comparing elasticities, differences and contributions of vital rates to λ. None of the previous studies have compared the effects of chronic genotoxicity using prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses in a sexual and asexual species over generations. The behaviour of a population with lower growth rate in the presence of genotoxicants in the field was studied by simulating reduced fertilities in the LTRE design. The results of prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of effects on λ showed that population growth rate was proportionally more sensitive to juvenile survival whereas the effect of EMS on juvenile fertility contributed more to the variations in population growth rate in both the species and this effect was due to the high growth rate of Artemia. Simulations of lower population growth rate in the model showed that adult fertility and survival are also of importance. Sexual reproduction substantially mitigated the long term consequences of genetic damage, although these would be greater if population growth rate were lower. So multigenerational population level consequences of genotoxicity were much greater in an asexual species. So asexual species, and those with a

  3. Accessibility to Nodes of Interest: Demographic Weighting the Logistic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gioacchino DE CANDIA

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This research fits into the genre of spatial analysis, aimed at better understanding of population dynamics in relation to the presence and distribution of infrastructure and related services. Specifically, the analysis uses a model of the gravitational type, based on the assumption of the impedance (attractiveness territorial, based on a curve of type logistics to determine the accessibility of the same, to which to add a system of weights. In this sense, the model was weighted according to the population, to determine the level of “population served” in terms of infrastructure and related services included in the model.

  4. Modeling of budgetary funding influence on socio-demographic processes of a region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Vladimirovna Vasil'eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method of modeling socio-demographic processes in a region based on the minimax approach. In this method, the simulated socio-demographic processes reflect the performance of a population fertility age model, reproductive systems and the structure of mortality, as management impact tools of fiscal spending on socially significant budget items (health, physical culture and sport, social policy, education, environmental protection are considered. Testing methodology on the examples of the Russian Federation subjects included in the Ural Federal District is presented. Peculiarities of influence of funding of each socially important item on the social and demographic processes in the regions of the Ural Federal District are shown. Priorities of distribution of funds based on the level of budgetary provision in the region to ensure optimization of socio-demographic development of the region are shaped.

  5. Dose Response Association between Physical Activity and Biological, Demographic, and Perceptions of Health Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul D. Loprinzi

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Few population-based studies have examined the association between physical activity (PA and cardiovascular disease risk factors, demographic variables, and perceptions of health status, and we do not have a clear understanding of the dose-response relationship among these variables. Methods: Data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey was used to examine the dose-response relationship between objectively measured PA and metabolic syndrome (and its individual cardiovascular disease risk factors, demographic variables, and perceptions of health. After exclusions, 5,538 participants 18 years or older were included in the present study, with 2,538 participants providing fasting glucose and 2,527 providing fasting triglyceride data. PA was categorized into deciles. Results: Overall, the health benefits showed a general pattern of increase with each increasing levels of PA. Of the ten PA classifications examined, participants in the highest moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA category (at least 71 min/day had the lowest odds of developing metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: At a minimum, sedentary adults should strive to meet current PA guidelines (i.e., 150 min/week of MVPA, with additional positive benefits associated with engaging in three times this level of PA.

  6. A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Albert Ando; Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between the demographic structure and the saving rate of a society is the reflection of the aggregation of the behaviour of heterogeneous households, differing from one another in the type of living arrangements and in the characteristics of their members. In order to contribute to the understanding of this relationship, we construct a dynamic micro model capable of simulating the demographic development of a population, including the creation, destruction, dimension and vari...

  7. Model schedules in Multistate Demographic Analysis: The Case of Migration

    OpenAIRE

    1981-01-01

    This paper draws on the fundamental regularity exhibited by age profiles of migration all over the world to develop a system of hypothetical "synthetic" model miqration schedules that can be used to carry out multiregional population analyses in countries that lack adequate migration data.

  8. Demographic Factors, Corporate Social Responsibility, Employee Engagement and Corporate Reputation: A Perspective From Hotel Industries In Indonesia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2014-01-01

    Hotel as a hospitality industry should manage its reputation as a valuable asset for the business continuity. The hotel's reputation is built up by the employee's perceptions of treatment and sense of belonging and engagement of the hotel. The purpose of this study is to analyze employee's perceptions of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities, employee engagement, and corporate reputation that have been undertaken by the hotel industry in Jakarta and how demographic factors influence these perceptions. The structure equation model (SEM) was implemented to find each variable influence. Samples were taken from hotel employees who work in five-star hotels in Jakarta with 221 respondents (response rate 78.9%). The results indicate that CSR activities significantly influence employee engagement and corporate reputation, and at the same time, employee engagement significantly influences cor0orate reputation.

  9. Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven H. Ferguson

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.

  10. Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Brent G.; Yurkowski, David J.; Anderson, Randi; Willing, Cornelia; Nielsen, Ole

    2017-01-01

    To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline. PMID:28168119

  11. Demographic Responses to Oxidative Stress and Inflammation in the Wandering Albatross (Diomedea exulans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Costantini

    Full Text Available One of the major challenges in ecological research is the elucidation of physiological mechanisms that underlie the demographic traits of wild animals. We have assessed whether a marker of plasma oxidative stress (TBARS and plasma haptoglobin (protein of the acute inflammatory phase response measured at time t predict five demographic parameters (survival rate, return rate to the breeding colony, breeding probability, hatching and fledging success in sexually mature wandering albatrosses over the next four years (Diomedea exulans using a five-year individual-based dataset. Non-breeder males, but not females, having higher TBARS at time t had reduced future breeding probabilities; haptoglobin was not related to breeding probability. Neither TBARS nor haptoglobin predicted future hatching or fledging success. Haptoglobin had a marginally positive effect on female survival rate, while TBARS had a marginally negative effect on return rate. Our findings do not support the role for oxidative stress as a constraint of future reproductive success in the albatross. However, our data point to a potential mechanism underlying some aspects of reproductive senescence and survival. Our results also highlight that the study of the consequences of oxidative stress should consider the life-cycle stage of an individual and its reproductive history.

  12. Demographic Responses to Oxidative Stress and Inflammation in the Wandering Albatross (Diomedea exulans).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costantini, David; Goutte, Aurelie; Barbraud, Christophe; Faivre, Bruno; Sorci, Gabriele; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Chastel, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    One of the major challenges in ecological research is the elucidation of physiological mechanisms that underlie the demographic traits of wild animals. We have assessed whether a marker of plasma oxidative stress (TBARS) and plasma haptoglobin (protein of the acute inflammatory phase response) measured at time t predict five demographic parameters (survival rate, return rate to the breeding colony, breeding probability, hatching and fledging success) in sexually mature wandering albatrosses over the next four years (Diomedea exulans) using a five-year individual-based dataset. Non-breeder males, but not females, having higher TBARS at time t had reduced future breeding probabilities; haptoglobin was not related to breeding probability. Neither TBARS nor haptoglobin predicted future hatching or fledging success. Haptoglobin had a marginally positive effect on female survival rate, while TBARS had a marginally negative effect on return rate. Our findings do not support the role for oxidative stress as a constraint of future reproductive success in the albatross. However, our data point to a potential mechanism underlying some aspects of reproductive senescence and survival. Our results also highlight that the study of the consequences of oxidative stress should consider the life-cycle stage of an individual and its reproductive history.

  13. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-02-10

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

  14. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  15. 25-year trends and socio-demographic differences in response rates: Finnish adult health behaviour survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolonen, Hanna; Helakorpi, Satu; Talala, Kirsi; Helasoja, Ville; Martelin, Tuija; Prättälä, Ritva

    2006-01-01

    When estimating population level changes in health indicators, the declining response rate, especially if also the characteristics of non-respondents are changing may bias the outcome. There is evidence that survey response rates are declining in many countries. It is also known that respondents and non-respondents differ in their socio-economic and demographic status as well as in their health and health behaviours. There is no information about the changes in the differences between respondents and non-respondents over time. Our purpose was to investigate the changes over time in the differences between respondents and non-respondents in respect to their sex, age, marital status and educational level. The data from the Finnish Adult Health Behaviour Survey (1978-2002) was used. The response rate declined over the past 25 years for both men and women in all age groups. The decline was faster among men than women, and also faster in younger age groups than older age groups. There is a marked difference in the response rate between married and non-married persons but it did not change over time. Also the response rate between different educational levels differed for both men and women, and this difference increased over the years. The declining response rate and at the same time occurring change in the non-respondent characteristics will decrease the representativeness of the results, limit the comparability of the results with other surveys, increase the bias of the trend estimates and limit the comparability of the results between population groups.

  16. Demographic noise and resilience in a semi-arid ecosystem model

    CERN Document Server

    Realpe-Gomez, John; Galla, Tobias; McKane, Alan J; Rietkerk, Max

    2013-01-01

    The scarcity of water characterizing drylands forces vegetation to adopt appropriate survival strategies. Some of these generate water-vegetation feedback mechanisms that can lead to spatial self-organisation of vegetation. To date these phenomena have mostly been studied with models representing plants by a density of biomass, varying continuously in time and space. Such models disregard the discrete nature of plant individuals and their intrinsically stochastic behaviour. These features give rise to demographic noise, which can influence the qualitative dynamics of ecosystem models. In the present work we explore the effects of demographic noise on the resilience of a model semi-arid ecosystem. We introduce a spatial stochastic eco-hydrological hybrid model in which plants are modelled as discrete entities subject to stochastic dynamical rules, while the dynamics of surface and soil water are described by continuous variables. The model has a deterministic approximation very similar to previous continuous m...

  17. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  18. Demographic links to savings in life cycle models: identification of issues for LDCs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raut, L K

    1992-01-01

    The author considers the potential for a link between the recent pattern of demographic transition and intertemporal and inter-country variations in savings rates. Fertility, infant mortality, life expectancy, and levels of female and child labor force participation are among the various demographic factors which affect national savings rates through their effects upon age structure, age-specific individual savings behavior, and their general equilibrium effects upon interest rates, wage rates, and income distribution. The author establishes a simple discrete time life cycle model of savings, explains the issues related to age structure, and discusses the effect of age-specific savings functions, the general equilibrium effects of demographic factors, the effects of life expectancies and child mortalities, and the nature of social security coverages in less developed countries, as well as issues which are especially important for less developed countries. A new strategy for empirically evaluating demographic policies is proposed. That is, one can estimate the age profile of earnings, saving and fertility rates from household survey data. The life tables can then be used to compute the aggregate savings rate and population size. Any demographic policy which affects the fertility rate, life expectancy, and investment in the quality of children will change the aggregate saving and population growth rates. These two aggregate effects could be compared to evaluate demographic policies. The author stresses, however, that changes in different demographic factors will have different short-run and long-run effects upon the savings rate which will also depend upon whether such changes are transitory or permanent.

  19. Demographic responses of Heterocypris incongruens (Ostracoda related to stress factors of competition, predation and food

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocio Fernandez

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Heterocypris incongruens is a widely distributed ostracod which can maintain its populations under stressful conditions such as those in temporary ponds and under low-quality diets, for example, detritus. It often co-occurs with cladocerans and fish living in shallow water bodies. Nevertheless, little is known about its response to the presence of predators, its consumption capacity of cyanobacteria typically present in eutrophic systems, and its interaction with other species in similar habits. We studied here the demographic responses of H. incongruens fed the green alga Scenedesmus acutus, two strains of Microcystis cf. aeruginosa and Limnothrix sp. Experiments were conducted separately and together in the presence of the cladoceran Simocephalus vetulus and the cichlid fish, Oreochromis kairomones. The ostracod maintained growth in all treatments, the reproductive output decreased on dietary Limnothrix sp., and its life expectancy was significantly lower with the toxic strain of Microcystis. The coexistence of both crustacean species increased the rate of population growth (~ 0.33 day-1 of S. vetulus and life expectancy (36-44 days of H. incongruens on the test diets compared with controls (23-33 days. Our study suggests facilitation affects the interaction between the two microcrustaceans, especially on poor quality cyanobacterial diets.

  20. Influenza vaccination responses in human systemic lupus erythematosus: impact of clinical and demographic features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sherry R; Merrill, Joan T; Vista, Evan S; Dedeke, Amy B; Thompson, David M; Stewart, Scott; Guthridge, Joel M; Niewold, Timothy B; Franek, Beverly S; Air, Gillian M; Thompson, Linda F; James, Judith A

    2011-08-01

    Vaccination against common pathogens, such as influenza, is recommended for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) to decrease infections and improve health. However, most reports describing the vaccination response are limited to evaluations of SLE patients with quiescent disease. This study focuses on understanding the clinical, serologic, therapeutic, and demographic factors that influence the response to influenza vaccination in SLE patients with a broad range of disease activity. Blood specimens and information on disease activity were collected from 72 patients with SLE, at baseline and at 2, 6, and 12 weeks after influenza vaccination. Influenza-specific antibody responses were assessed by determining the total serum antibody concentration (B(max)), relative affinity (K(a)), and level of hemagglutination inhibition in the plasma. Using a cumulative score, the patients were evenly divided into groups of high or low vaccine responders. Autoantibody levels were evaluated at each time point using immunofluorescence tests and standard enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Compared to high responders, low responders to the vaccine were more likely to have hematologic criteria (P = 0.009), to have more American College of Rheumatology classification criteria for SLE (P = 0.05), and to be receiving concurrent prednisone treatment (P = 0.04). Interestingly, European American patients were more likely to be low responders than were African American patients (P = 0.03). Following vaccination, low responders were more likely to experience disease flares (P = 0.01) and to have increased titers of antinuclear antibodies (P = 0.04). Serum interferon-α activity at baseline was significantly higher in patients in whom a flare occurred after vaccination compared to a matched group of patients who did not experience a disease flare (P = 0.04). Ancestral background, prednisone treatment, hematologic criteria, and evidence of increased likelihood of disease flares were

  1. Why do faultlines matter? A computational model of how strong demographic faultlines undermine team cohesion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flache, Andreas; Mas, Michael; Mäs, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Lau and Murnighan (LM) suggested that strong demographic faultlines threaten team cohesion and reduce consensus. However, it remains unclear which assumptions are exactly needed to derive faultline effects. We propose a formal computational model of the effects of faultlines that uses four elementar

  2. Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land-use and other anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated int...

  3. Assessing juvenile native fish demographic responses to a steady flow experiment in a large regulated river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, Colton G.; Pine, William E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Dodrill, Michael J.; Yard, Michael D.; Gerig, Brandon S.; Coggins,, Lewis G.; Korman, Josh

    2016-01-01

    The Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, is part of an adaptive management programme which optimizes dam operations to improve various resources in the downstream ecosystem within Grand Canyon. Understanding how populations of federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha respond to these dam operations is a high priority. Here, we test hypotheses concerning temporal variation in juvenile humpback chub apparent survival rates and abundance by comparing estimates between hydropeaking and steady discharge regimes over a 3-year period (July 2009–July 2012). The most supported model ignored flow type (steady vs hydropeaking) and estimated a declining trend in daily apparent survival rate across years (99.90%, 99.79% and 99.67% for 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively). Corresponding abundance of juvenile humpback chub increased temporally; open population model estimates ranged from 615 to 2802 individuals/km, and closed model estimates ranged from 94 to 1515 individuals/km. These changes in apparent survival and abundance may reflect broader trends, or simply represent inter-annual variation. Important findings include (i) juvenile humpback chub are currently surviving and recruiting in the mainstem Colorado River with increasing abundance; (ii) apparent survival does not benefit from steady fall discharges from Glen Canyon Dam; and (iii) direct assessment of demographic parameters for juvenile endangered fish are possible and can rapidly inform management actions in regulated rivers.

  4. Endogenising demographic variables in demo-economic models: the Bachue experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wery, R; Rodgers, G

    1980-01-01

    The attempt is made in this discussion to describe and draw lessons from the treatment of behavioral demographic variables in the Bachue demo-economic models constructed for the Philippines, Kenya, Brazil and Yugoslavia. Focus is on certain theoretical, technical and practical problems encountered in inserting demographic variables in the system as a whole; how they have been measured in the various applications of the Bachue models, how they are behaviorally explained and linked to the other elements in the system, the data sources used, and some issues of econometric estimates and modelling. 8 issues are dealt with: population accounting and lag structure; fertility; mortality; migration; nuptiality; household formation; schooling; and labor force participation. In each case model structure, dependent and explanatory variables, and empirical strategy are discussed. Summary tables compare the approaches of the different models. The specifics of each country situation rule out the identification of the best solution. Some suggestions regarding more promising approaches are included with respect to choice of variables and the estimation of behavioral models. The endogenous nature of certain demographic elements of a demo-economic model are clear, but construction of the Bachue models has shown that there are no exact rules valid for all cases. There is considerable variety in the way characteristics of the population have been represented in the various applications.

  5. The Challenges of Changing Demographics in a Midwestern School District: Administrative Interventions and Teachers' Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreinbring, Heather Hyatt

    2010-01-01

    America's school-age population is experiencing a demographic shift. In 1972, students of color represented 22% of the school-age population; in 2005, minority students accounted for 33% of public school enrollment (Statistics, 2007 Villegas, 2002). This study sought to explore how these changing demographics affected University Town Community…

  6. Variation in the population demographics of Scolopsis bilineatus in response to predators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, A. E.; Kingsford, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Predatory fishes play critical roles in the trophodynamics of coral reefs, and the biomass of predatory fish can be a strong determinant of the structure of reef fish assemblages. In this study, we used variations in predator biomass between management zones on the Great Barrier Reef to examine how predators influence the biomass, mortality, condition, and reproductive potential of a common prey species Scolopsis bilineatus (bridled monocle bream; Nemipteridae). Despite no numerical differences in biomass or mortality, we found significant differences in a variety of demographic traits for S. bilineatus between multiple areas of high and low predator biomass. The size-at-age, condition, and reproductive potential of fish were reduced in marine reserves where predator biomass was high. The response of fish to predators was highly sex dependent; females suffered the greatest reductions in condition and reproductive potential. This study supports the notion that predators can play important roles in regulating prey dynamics and emphasises the importance of understanding top-down control by predators when considering fisheries management techniques and conservation strategies.

  7. Demographic and clinical factors associated with response to smallpox vaccine in preimmunized volunteers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Bossi

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: In March 2003, the French Ministry of Health implemented a program on preparedness and response to a biological attack using smallpox as weapon. This program included the establishment of a preoutbreak national team that could be revaccinated against smallpox. OBJECTIVE: To identify demographic and clinical factors associated with vaccination success defined as the presence of a pustule at the inoculation site at day 8 (days 7-9, with an undiluted vaccinia virus derived from a Lister strain among preimmunized volunteers. VOLUNTEERS AND METHODS: From March 2003 to November 2006, we have studied prospectively 226 eligible volunteers. Demographic data were recorded for each volunteer (age, sex, number of previously smallpox vaccinations and date of the last vaccination. Smallpox vaccine adverse reactions were diagnosed on the basis of clinical examination performed at days 0, 7, 14, 21 and 28 after revaccination. RESULTS: A total of 226 volunteers (sex ratio H/F = 2.7 were revaccinated. Median age was 45 years (range: 27-63 yrs. All volunteers completed follow-up. Median number of vaccinations before revaccination was 2 (range: 1-8. The median delay between time of the study and the last vaccination was 29 years (range; 18-60 yrs. Sixty-one volunteers (27% experienced one (n = 40 or more (n = 21 minor side effects during the 2-14 days after revaccination. Successful vaccination was noted in 216/226 volunteers (95.6% at day 8 and the median of the pustule diameter was 5 mm (range: 1-20 mm. Size of the pustule at day 8 was correlated with age (p = 0.03 and with the presence of axillary adenopathy after revaccination (p = 0.007. Sex, number of prior vaccinations, delay between the last vaccination and revaccination, and local or systemic side effects with the exception of axillary adenopathy, were not correlated with the size of the pustule at day 8. CONCLUSIONS: Previously vaccinated volunteers can be successfully revaccinated with the

  8. Socio-demographic correlates of treatment response among patients with schizophrenia in a tertiary hospital in South-East Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeme, Mark S; Uwakwe, Richard; Ndukuba, Appolos C; Igwe, Monday N; Odinka, Paul C; Amadi, Kennedy; Obayi, Nichodemus O

    2016-12-01

    Many patients with schizophrenia respond poorly to antipsychotic medication. Few studies have systematically examined the relationship of social and demographic characteristics of these patients to treatment response in our environment. To identify the social and demographic variables associated with treatment response in patients with schizophrenia. A total of 172 participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia receiving antipsychotics took part in the study. Participants were consecutively recruited involving patients presenting for the first time, or relapsed patients who had stopped antipsychotics in the previous six months. Both in-patients and out-patients who met the inclusion criteria were studied. Socio-demographic interview schedule and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) were administered at the initial encounter and between 4 and 6 weeks, subsequently. Defining good treatment response as ≥ 20% reduction in PANSS score, 68% had a good response while 32% had poor response. Good response to treatment was associated with late age of onset of illness, satisfactory family relationship, acquisition of skilled occupation and being married. However, there was no association between treatment response and gender. Knowledge about these variables in relation to treatment response would improve mental health services as regards articulation of prognosis and psycho education.

  9. Hierarchial mark-recapture models: a framework for inference about demographic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    The development of sophisticated mark-recapture models over the last four decades has provided fundamental tools for the study of wildlife populations, allowing reliable inference about population sizes and demographic rates based on clearly formulated models for the sampling processes. Mark-recapture models are now routinely described by large numbers of parameters. These large models provide the next challenge to wildlife modelers: the extraction of signal from noise in large collections of parameters. Pattern among parameters can be described by strong, deterministic relations (as in ultrastructural models) but is more flexibly and credibly modeled using weaker, stochastic relations. Trend in survival rates is not likely to be manifest by a sequence of values falling precisely on a given parametric curve; rather, if we could somehow know the true values, we might anticipate a regression relation between parameters and explanatory variables, in which true value equals signal plus noise. Hierarchical models provide a useful framework for inference about collections of related parameters. Instead of regarding parameters as fixed but unknown quantities, we regard them as realizations of stochastic processes governed by hyperparameters. Inference about demographic processes is based on investigation of these hyperparameters. We advocate the Bayesian paradigm as a natural, mathematically and scientifically sound basis for inference about hierarchical models. We describe analysis of capture-recapture data from an open population based on hierarchical extensions of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture, and are thus able to estimate survival probabilities w (i.e., the complement of death or permanent emigration) and per capita growth rates f (i.e., the sum of recruitment and immigration rates). Covariation in these rates, a feature of demographic interest, is explicitly

  10. Maternal feeding strategies and child's food intake: considering weight and demographic influences using structural equation modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Warschburger Petra; Kröller Katja

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Research concerning child's food intake have considered various influencing factors, for example parental feeding strategies, demographic and weight factors. At this time, however, there are few findings that explore these factors simultaneously. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to test a structural equation model regarding the associations between maternal feeding strategies and child's food intake. Methods 556 mothers and their children between 1 and 10 years of ag...

  11. Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C

    2017-06-30

    Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Using a generalised identity reference model with archetypes to support interoperability of demographics information in electronic health record systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu Chen; Berry, Damon; Stephens, Gaye

    2015-01-01

    Computerised identity management is in general encountered as a low-level mechanism that enables users in a particular system or region to securely access resources. In the Electronic Health Record (EHR), the identifying information of both the healthcare professionals who access the EHR and the patients whose EHR is accessed, are subject to change. Demographics services have been developed to manage federated patient and healthcare professional identities and to support challenging healthcare-specific use cases in the presence of diverse and sometimes conflicting demographic identities. Demographics services are not the only use for identities in healthcare. Nevertheless, contemporary EHR specifications limit the types of entities that can be the actor or subject of a record to health professionals and patients, thus limiting the use of two level models in other healthcare information systems. Demographics are ubiquitous in healthcare, so for a general identity model to be usable, it should be capable of managing demographic information. In this paper, we introduce a generalised identity reference model (GIRM) based on key characteristics of five surveyed demographic models. We evaluate the GIRM by using it to express the EN13606 demographics model in an extensible way at the metadata level and show how two-level modelling can support the exchange of instances of demographic identities. This use of the GIRM to express demographics information shows its application for standards-compliant two-level modelling alongside heterogeneous demographics models. We advocate this approach to facilitate the interoperability of identities between two-level model-based EHR systems and show the validity and the extensibility of using GIRM for the expression of other health-related identities.

  13. Psychometric latent response models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maris, E.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, some psychometric models will be presented that belong to the larger class oflatent response models (LRMs). First, LRMs are introduced by means of an application in the field ofcomponential item response theory (Embretson, 1980, 1984). Second, a general definition of LRMs (not specifi

  14. Response model parameter linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrett, Michelle Derbenwick

    2015-01-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require

  15. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatem Andrew J

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

  16. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatem, Andrew J; Adamo, Susana; Bharti, Nita; Burgert, Clara R; Castro, Marcia; Dorelien, Audrey; Fink, Gunter; Linard, Catherine; John, Mendelsohn; Montana, Livia; Montgomery, Mark R; Nelson, Andrew; Noor, Abdisalan M; Pindolia, Deepa; Yetman, Greg; Balk, Deborah

    2012-05-16

    The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models.Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites.In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets and

  17. Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

    2017-05-07

    Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

    2012-09-01

    Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor

  19. DESCARTES' RULE OF SIGNS AND THE IDENTIFIABILITY OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS FROM GENOMIC VARIATION DATA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Anand; Song, Yun S

    2014-01-01

    The sample frequency spectrum (SFS) is a widely-used summary statistic of genomic variation in a sample of homologous DNA sequences. It provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic data and its mathematical dependence on the underlying population demography is well understood, thus enabling the development of efficient inference algorithms. However, it has been recently shown that very different population demographies can actually generate the same SFS for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Although in principle this nonidentifiability issue poses a thorny challenge to statistical inference, the population size functions involved in the counterexamples are arguably not so biologically realistic. Here, we revisit this problem and examine the identifiability of demographic models under the restriction that the population sizes are piecewise-defined where each piece belongs to some family of biologically-motivated functions. Under this assumption, we prove that the expected SFS of a sample uniquely determines the underlying demographic model, provided that the sample is sufficiently large. We obtain a general bound on the sample size sufficient for identifiability; the bound depends on the number of pieces in the demographic model and also on the type of population size function in each piece. In the cases of piecewise-constant, piecewise-exponential and piecewise-generalized-exponential models, which are often assumed in population genomic inferences, we provide explicit formulas for the bounds as simple functions of the number of pieces. Lastly, we obtain analogous results for the "folded" SFS, which is often used when there is ambiguity as to which allelic type is ancestral. Our results are proved using a generalization of Descartes' rule of signs for polynomials to the Laplace transform of piecewise continuous functions.

  20. Quantal Response: Nonparametric Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    spline N−spline Fig. 3 Logistic regression 7 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 5. Nonparametric QR Models Nonparametric linear ...stimulus and probability of response. The Generalized Linear Model approach does not make use of the limit distribution but allows arbitrary functional...7. Conclusions and Recommendations 18 8. References 19 Appendix A. The Linear Model 21 Appendix B. The Generalized Linear Model 33 Appendix C. B

  1. [Model calculations of the effect of demographic changes on the incidence of cancer in Saarland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, H; Ziegler, H

    1989-12-01

    Resulting from the population structure and current fertility and mortality rates, a rapid aging of the West German society is to be expected. The impact of these demographic changes on numbers of cancer cases and incidence rates is quantitatively assessed for the Saarland, which is the only state with reliable population-based cancer registration in the FRG. Despite a projected decrease in population size during the next decades, numbers of incident cases are expected to rise substantially in males and to remain almost constant in females for all of the most common forms of cancer. The projected changes have model character for other parts of the FRG.

  2. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  3. Global dynamics of a network-based SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shouying; Chen, Fengde; Chen, Lijuan

    2017-02-01

    This paper investigates a new SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination on complex heterogeneous networks. We analytically derive the basic reproduction number R0, which determines not only the existence of endemic equilibrium but also the global dynamics of the model. The permanence of the disease and the globally asymptotical stability of disease-free equilibrium are proved in detail. By using a monotone iterative technique, we show that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally attractive under certain conditions. Our results really improve and enrich the results in Li et al (2014) [14]. Interestingly, the basic reproduction number R0 bears no relation to the degree-dependent birth, but our simulations indicate that the degree-dependent birth does affect the epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, we find that quarantine plays a more active role than vaccination in controlling the disease.

  4. Beyond R0: demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    Full Text Available The net reproductive rate R0 measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, R0 provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants.

  5. Aging and demographic plasticity in response to experimental age structures in honeybees (Apis mellifera L).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueppell, Olav; Linford, Robyn; Gardner, Preston; Coleman, Jennifer; Fine, Kari

    2008-08-01

    Honeybee colonies are highly integrated functional units characterized by a pronounced division of labor. Division of labor among workers is mainly age-based, with younger individuals focusing on in-hive tasks and older workers performing the more hazardous foraging activities. Thus, experimental disruption of the age composition of the worker hive population is expected to have profound consequences for colony function. Adaptive demography theory predicts that the natural hive age composition represents a colony-level adaptation and thus results in optimal hive performance. Alternatively, the hive age composition may be an epiphenomenon, resulting from individual life history optimization. We addressed these predictions by comparing individual worker longevity and brood production in hives that were composed of a single age cohort, two distinct age cohorts, and hives that had a continuous, natural age distribution. Four experimental replicates showed that colonies with a natural age composition did not consistently have a higher life expectancy and/or brood production than the single cohort or double cohort hives. Instead, a complex interplay of age structure, environmental conditions, colony size, brood production, and individual mortality emerged. A general trade-off between worker life expectancy and colony productivity was apparent, and the transition from in-hive tasks to foraging was the most significant predictor of worker lifespan irrespective of the colony age structure. We conclude that the natural age structure of honeybee hives is not a colony-level adaptation. Furthermore, our results show that honeybees exhibit pronounced demographic plasticity in addition to behavioral plasticity to react to demographic disturbances of their societies.

  6. Adaptive response modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campa, Alessandro; Esposito, Giuseppe; Belli, Mauro

    Cellular response to radiation is often modified by a previous delivery of a small "priming" dose: a smaller amount of damage, defined by the end point being investigated, is observed, and for this reason the effect is called adaptive response. An improved understanding of this effect is essential (as much as for the case of the bystander effect) for a reliable radiation risk assessment when low dose irradiations are involved. Experiments on adaptive response have shown that there are a number of factors that strongly influence the occurrence (and the level) of the adaptation. In particular, priming doses and dose rates have to fall in defined ranges; the same is true for the time interval between the delivery of the small priming dose and the irradiation with the main, larger, dose (called in this case challenging dose). Different hypotheses can be formulated on the main mechanism(s) determining the adaptive response: an increased efficiency of DNA repair, an increased level of antioxidant enzymes, an alteration of cell cycle progression, a chromatin conformation change. An experimental clearcut evidence going definitely in the direction of one of these explanations is not yet available. Modelling can be done at different levels. Simple models, relating the amount of damage, through elementary differential equations, to the dose and dose rate experienced by the cell, are relatively easy to handle, and they can be modified to account for the priming irradiation. However, this can hardly be of decisive help in the explanation of the mechanisms, since each parameter of these models often incorporates in an effective way several cellular processes related to the response to radiation. In this presentation we show our attempts to describe adaptive response with models that explicitly contain, as a dynamical variable, the inducible adaptive agent. At a price of a more difficult treatment, this approach is probably more prone to give support to the experimental studies

  7. Environmental vs. demographic variability in stochastic lattice predator-prey models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauber, Uwe C.

    2014-03-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka-Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization.

  8. Improving the accuracy of demographic and molecular clock model comparison while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A; Alekseyenko, Alexander V

    2012-09-01

    Recent developments in marginal likelihood estimation for model selection in the field of Bayesian phylogenetics and molecular evolution have emphasized the poor performance of the harmonic mean estimator (HME). Although these studies have shown the merits of new approaches applied to standard normally distributed examples and small real-world data sets, not much is currently known concerning the performance and computational issues of these methods when fitting complex evolutionary and population genetic models to empirical real-world data sets. Further, these approaches have not yet seen widespread application in the field due to the lack of implementations of these computationally demanding techniques in commonly used phylogenetic packages. We here investigate the performance of some of these new marginal likelihood estimators, specifically, path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone (SS) sampling for comparing models of demographic change and relaxed molecular clocks, using synthetic data and real-world examples for which unexpected inferences were made using the HME. Given the drastically increased computational demands of PS and SS sampling, we also investigate a posterior simulation-based analogue of Akaike's information criterion (AIC) through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), a model comparison approach that shares with the HME the appealing feature of having a low computational overhead over the original MCMC analysis. We confirm that the HME systematically overestimates the marginal likelihood and fails to yield reliable model classification and show that the AICM performs better and may be a useful initial evaluation of model choice but that it is also, to a lesser degree, unreliable. We show that PS and SS sampling substantially outperform these estimators and adjust the conclusions made concerning previous analyses for the three real-world data sets that we reanalyzed. The methods used in this article are now available in BEAST, a powerful user

  9. Non-Response in Student Surveys: The Role of Demographics, Engagement and Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Stephen R.; Whitcomb, Michael E.

    2005-01-01

    What causes a student to participate in a survey? This paper looks at participation across multiple surveys to understand survey non-response; by using multiple surveys we minimize the impact of survey salience. Students at a selective liberal arts college were administered four different surveys throughout the 2002-2003 academic year, and we use…

  10. Decision model on the demographic profile for tuberculosis control using fuzzy logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laisa Ribeiro de Sá

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to describe the relationship between demographic factors and the involvement of tuberculosis by applying a decision support model based on fuzzy logic to classify the regions as priority and non-priority in the city of João Pessoa, state of Paraíba (PB. As data source, we used the Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2009 and 2011. We chose the descriptive analysis, relative risk (RR, spatial distribution and fuzzy logic. The total of 1,245 cases remained in the study, accounting for 37.02% of cases in 2009. High and low risk clusters were identified, and the RR was higher among men (8.47, with 12 clusters, and among those uneducated (11.65, with 13 clusters. To demonstrate the functionality of the model was elected the year with highest number of cases, and the municipality district with highest population. The methodology identified priority areas, guiding managers to make decisions that respect the local particularities.

  11. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dybala, Kristen E; Eadie, John M; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Herzog, Mark P

    2013-09-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Demographic Models for Projecting Population and Migration: Methods for African Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Manning

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study presents methods for projecting population and migration over time in cases were empirical data are missing or undependable. The methods are useful for cases in which the researcher has details of population size and structure for a limited period of time (most obviously, the end point, with scattered evidence on other times. It enables estimation of population size, including its structure in age, sex, and status, either forward or backward in time. The program keeps track of all the details. The calculated data can be reported or sampled and compared to empirical findings at various times and places to expected values based on other procedures of estimation. The application of these general methods that is developed here is the projection of African populations backwards in time from 1950, since 1950 is the first date for which consistently strong demographic estimates are available for national-level populations all over the African continent. The models give particular attention to migration through enslavement, which was highly important in Africa from 1650 to 1900. Details include a sensitivity analysis showing relative significance of input variables and techniques for calibrating various dimensions of the projection with each other. These same methods may be applicable to quite different historical situations, as long as the data conform in structure to those considered here.

  13. MODELING FOR DEMOGRAPHIC AND REGIONAL PREVALENCE AND TRENDS OF SMOKING IN THAI MALES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Apiradee; McNeil, Don

    2016-03-01

    This study aimed to describe using national survey data the demographic and regional prevalence and trends of smoking in Thai males during the past 25 years. Data from eight national surveys conducted by the National Statistics Office from 1986 to 2011 were used to examine the prevalence of smoking. Males aged 15 and older were included in this study. Logistic regression was used to model smoking patterns, according to year of survey, age group, urbanization, and Public Health Area (PHA). The prevalence of smoking among males aged 15 years and older in 2011 was 38.4%. Sharply increasing smoking prevalence was found in the 15-24 years-old age group in all surveys. Before survey year 1999, the prevalence of smoking started to level off near retirement age, and subsequently, it leveled off after 40 years of age. The prevalence of smoking in all age groups decreased after 1986 except in the 15-19 years-old age group. Higher prevalence of smoking was found in rural areas. Males from the Northeast and the lower South regions had the highest prevalence. More effective anti-smoking policies should focus on males aged below 25 years to reduce the increasing prevalence of smoking in this group.

  14. Demographic responses of boreal-montane orchid Malaxis monophyllos (L. Sw. populations to contrasting environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyta Jermakowicz

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In an age of changes in species’ geographical ranges, compounded by climatic and anthropogenic impacts, it become important to know which processes and factors influence plant populations and their persistence in the long term. Here we investigated dynamic and fitness components in twelve populations of Malaxis monophyllos (L. Sw., situated in different geographical (regions and ecological (type of habitat units. Although M. monophyllos is a rare species, characterized by highly fragmented, boreal-montane distribution range, in last few decades it successfully colonized secondary habitats in Polish uplands. Our results indicate that M. monophyllos is represented mainly by small populations, which annual spatial and temporal changes might be very high, what affects the ephemeral character of these populations, regardless of the region and type of habitat. This dynamic structure, in turn, is caused by intensive exchange of individuals in populations, as well as by their short above-ground life span. Despite the large range of variation in size and reproductive traits, we can distinguish some regional patterns, which indicate boreal region as the most optimal for M. monophyllos growth and persistence in the long term, and with montane and upland/anthropogenic populations, due to lower reproductive parameters, as the most threatened. Although it should be considered that anthropogenic populations, despite their lower reproductive parameters and instability in the long term, present an intermediate, geographical and ecological character, therefore they may be valuable in shaping, both M. monophyllos’ future range, as well as its potential for response on ongoing and future changes. In general, reproduction is the main factor differentiating of M. monophyllos populations in regions, and we can suspect that it may become the cause of the future differentiation and isolation of these populations, occurring with progressive range fragmentation.

  15. The fertility response to abortion reform in Eastern Europe: demographic and economic implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcintyre, R J

    1972-01-01

    by birth order as well as limited studies on women of completed fertility seem to support the conclusion that both the timing and the total number of births are changing in response to the legalization of abortion.

  16. Developing an ecosystem perspective from experimental monitoring programs: I. Demographic responses of a rare geothermal grass to soil temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlik, B M; Enberg, A

    2001-08-01

    The geysers panic grass [Dichanthelium lanuginosum Spellenberg var. thermale (Bol.) Spellenberg or DILA] is exclusively associated with surface geothermal manifestations in Sonoma County, California, USA (38 degrees 46'N, 122 degrees 38'W). Steam extraction by power plants could alter the subsurface distribution of heat and water to the site, potentially impacting subpopulations of this rare plant. The purpose of this study was to use demographic monitoring to determine: (1) temporal and spatial patterns of soil temperature in relation to the distribution of established DILA individuals at Little Geysers, (2) in situ response of experimental populations of DILA to spatial variations in soil temperature, and (3) habitat requirements of DILA as an indicator of its tolerance to variations in surficial geothermal features. Thermocouple transects and a datalogger provided data for characterizing the spatial and temporal patterns of soil temperature in four microhabitats (fumarole, DILA stand, Andropogon stand, and cleared). Experimental populations were established by precisely sowing and monitoring DILA seeds in these microhabitats. The results indicated that spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature had significant effects on the processes of germination, growth, survivorship, and reproduction, thus producing a readily observed metapopulation patch dynamic in relation to geothermal activity. Seasonal depressions of soil temperature near the fumaroles by cold air and prolonged rainfall events also promoted the emergence and survival of DILA seedlings in a microhabitat that was previously too hot to occupy. Over longer periods of time, DILA metapopulation dynamism reflected climatic and geothermal variation. Drought years inhibited germination for lack of water, but more importantly for the lack of requisite soil temperature depressions in the fumarole microhabitat. Wet years promoted subpopulation expansion into transition areas that were once too hot and dry

  17. Identity of organizational conflict framework: Evaluating model factors based on demographic characteristics in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaveh Hasani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE FA Purpose: The purpose of this study was to Identity of organizational conflict framework:  Evaluating model factors based on demographic characteristics in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: Research method is descriptive - applied. The statistical population includes all of the employees in Iran`s Azad Universites with 600 individuals at the time of the study and statistical sample included 234 individuals who were selected using Morgan table. Beside this study, descriptive and inferential statistics were used. Also, reliability approved through Cronbach alpha (0.87. Then, to detect the dimensions causes of organizational conflict, factor analysis in line with the main components was used. Through exploratory analysis, ten principal factors identified. Thereafter, confirmatory factor analysis reconfirmed these factors. Findings and originality/value: The results of study showed that there is no significant difference between the causes of organizational conflict based on the gender. Also, there are significant differences among the causes of organizational conflict based on the variables of age, education and work experience. Research limitations/implications: we adopt a cross sectional research design and as a result inferences regarding causality cannot be drawn. Future studies following a longitudinal design could provide a more dynamic perspective and contribute further to this stream of research. Originality/value: A lot of researches about the conflict management styles, organizational conflict's effects, etc. are conducted by different researchers, but a handful of researches have been conducted in the field of resources and causes of organizational conflict and this is one of the reasons that it is important for researchers to address this issue.

  18. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  19. Modelling sequentially scored item responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, W.

    2000-01-01

    The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is c

  20. Applying Retrospective Demographic Models to Assess Sustainable Use: the Maya Management of Xa'an Palms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Martínez-Ballesté

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Xa'an palm (Sabal yapa has been used to thatch traditional Maya houses for over 3000 years. In the Yucatan Peninsula, this palm has been introduced to pasturelands, maize fields (milpas, and homegardens. These and other traditional management systems are usually believed to be sustainable, but there is as yet little evidence to support this hypothesis. Demographic models have been used for this purpose, mainly focusing on population growth rate (λ. So far, retrospective analysis has not been applied, even though it examines how changes in the the life cycle of a species, caused by different management regimes, affect its λ. In this study, we assess whether ecologically sustainable use of xa'an occurs in homegardens, pasturelands, and milpas, and if so, how it is achieved. We constructed matrix population models for four populations of xa'an that were followed for 3 years, and then conducted a retrospective analysis on them. Management in homegardens seems to be oriented to increasing the availability of xa'an leaves, favoring the survival of seedlings, and increasing the density of harvestable-sized palms. However, in the milpa and the pastureland, the population size structure resembles that of unmanaged populations. Our λ values suggest that the traditional use of xa'an in all the studied management regimes is sustainable. Nevertheless, the processes that lead to sustainable use are different in each system, as shown by our retrospective analysis. Although fecundity contributes positively to λ only in homegardens, permanence and growth maintain palm populations at an equilibrium in the pastureland and in the milpa, respectively. Between-year climatic differences had a smaller impact on λ than management practices, which may vary from one year to another, leading to different balances in the sustainable use of the populations involved. Even though no significant differences were found in λ values, Maya achieve sustainable use of xa

  1. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  2. A coupled phylogeographical and species distribution modelling approach recovers the demographical history of a Neotropical seasonally dry forest tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collevatti, Rosane G; Terribile, Levi Carina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Nabout, João C; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Rangel, Thiago F; Rabelo, Suelen G; Diniz-Filho, Jose A F

    2012-12-01

    We investigated here the demographical history of Tabebuia impetiginosa (Bignoniaceae) to understand the dynamics of the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry forests (SDFs), based on coupling an ensemble approach encompassing hindcasting species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeographical analysis. We sampled 17 populations (280 individuals) in central Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH, and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed no haplotype sharing among population but strong evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed historical constant populations size, negligible gene flow among populations, and an ancient time to most recent common ancestor dated from ~4.7 ± 1.1 Myr BP. Most divergences dated from the Lower Pleistocene, and no signal of important population size reduction was found in coalescent tree and tests of demographical expansion. Demographical scenarios were built based on past geographical range dynamic models, using two a priori biogeographical hypotheses ('Pleistocene Arc' and 'Amazonian SDF expansion') and on two additional hypotheses suggested by the palaeodistribution modelling built with several algorithms for distribution modelling and palaeoclimatic data. The simulation of these demographical scenarios showed that the pattern of diversity found so far for T. impetiginosa is in consonance with a palaeodistribution expansion during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP), strongly suggesting that the current disjunct distribution of T. impetiginosa in SDFs may represent a climatic relict of a once more wide distribution.

  3. The IWG (Interagency Working Group) model for the heterosexual spread of HIV and the demographic impact of the AIDS epidemic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, E.A. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)); Seitz, S.T. (Illinois Univ., Urbana, IL (USA)); Way, P.O.; Johnson, P.D. (Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC (USA)); Curry, T.F. (Air Force Academy, CO (USA))

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents the State Department's Interagency Working Group (IWG) model for the spread of HIV. The model is fully operational for Pattern 2 (heterosexual blood transmission) and Pattern 3 (heterosexual, homosexual, and IV drug transmission) countries. This model was developed for various uses, including technical research, policy analysis, and support for decision making. Research uses include studying patterns of HIV spread, assessing the relative effect of different processes on the spread of HIV, examining the demographic impact of HIV infections, and comparing the potential impact of behavioral versus medical intervention strategies. The model will be used in workshops where policy makers and health officials can do hands-on scenario analyses, gain qualitative insights into the possible long-term-epidemiological and demographic impact of HIV, gauge the uncertainties in predictions for the future, and study the impact of HIV, gauge the uncertainties in predictions for the future, and study the impact that intervention strategies are likely to have. The computational model uses a deterministic system of differential equations and runs on a 286- or a 386-based IBM-compatible machine under Microsoft Windows. The program requires an input ASCII (text) file to run; all parameters used by the model are input through this file and, therefore, are user-accessible. The software is user-friendly, mouse-driven, and allows for interactive manipulation of input data and visualization and processing of model outputs. 15 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  4. Demographic factors and cancer mortality. A mathematical model for cancer mortality in Denmark 1943-78

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel, K

    1983-01-01

    Deaths from cancer in Denmark from 1943-1978 were extracted from the Danish National Death Register at the Danish Institute for Clinical Epidemiology. This paper illustrates the relationship between demographic factors and mortality from a large group of cancers, which increases progressively from...... likelihood estimates of b and k were found iteratively for each of the 280 combinations of sex--cancer site--residence--cohort. For fixed sex and cancer site the relationship between age, residence and cohort was examined. It appeared that k was independent of residence. For 10 of the male cancers and 12...

  5. Unitary Response Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipovetsky, S.

    2007-01-01

    The dependent variable in a regular linear regression is a numerical variable, and in a logistic regression it is a binary or categorical variable. In these models the dependent variable has varying values. However, there are problems yielding an identity output of a constant value which can also be modelled in a linear or logistic regression with…

  6. Testing three evolutionary models of the demographic transition: Patterns of fertility and age at marriage in urban South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenk, Mary K

    2009-01-01

    Over the last three decades many authors have addressed the demographic transition from the perspective of evolutionary theory. Some authors have emphasized parental investment factors such as the costs of raising children, others have emphasized the effects of mortality and other forms of risk, and others have emphasized the biased transmission of cultural norms from people of high status. Yet the literature says little about the relative strengths of each of these types of motivations or about which ones are more likely to serve as the primary impetus for large-scale demographic change. In this paper, I examine how each of these factors has influenced the demographic transition in urban South India during the course of the 20th century using two measures of fertility transition: number of surviving children and age at marriage. I find that investment-related, risk-related, and cultural transmission predictors all have significant individual effects on the outcome variables, which persist when they are entered in combination. When the three types of predictors are compared, however, investment-related models appear to provide more robust explanations for patterns in both fertility and age of marriage. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Schärrer

    Full Text Available Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD. The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef, age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years. The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm. The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants.

  8. Formulating a Historical and Demographic Model of Recent Human Evolution Based on Resequencing Data from Noncoding Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Guillaume; Patin, Etienne; Barreiro, Luis B.; Quintana-Murci, Lluís

    2010-01-01

    Background Estimating the historical and demographic parameters that characterize modern human populations is a fundamental part of reconstructing the recent history of our species. In addition, the development of a model of human evolution that can best explain neutral genetic diversity is required to identify confidently regions of the human genome that have been targeted by natural selection. Methodology/Principal Findings We have resequenced 20 independent noncoding autosomal regions dispersed throughout the genome in 213 individuals from different continental populations, corresponding to a total of ∼6 Mb of diploid resequencing data. We used these data to explore and co-estimate an extensive range of historical and demographic parameters with a statistical framework that combines the evaluation of multiple models of human evolution via a best-fit approach, followed by an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) analysis. From a methodological standpoint, evaluating the accuracy of the parameter co-estimation allowed us to identify the most accurate set of statistics to be used for the estimation of each of the different historical and demographic parameters characterizing recent human evolution. Conclusions/Significance Our results support a model in which modern humans left Africa through a single major dispersal event occurring ∼60,000 years ago, corresponding to a drastic reduction of ∼5 times the effective population size of the ancestral African population of ∼13,800 individuals. Subsequently, the ancestors of modern Europeans and East Asians diverged much later, ∼22,500 years ago, from the population of ancestral migrants. This late diversification of Eurasians after the African exodus points to the occurrence of a long maturation phase in which the ancestral Eurasian population was not yet diversified. PMID:20421973

  9. Formulating a historical and demographic model of recent human evolution based on resequencing data from noncoding regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Laval

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Estimating the historical and demographic parameters that characterize modern human populations is a fundamental part of reconstructing the recent history of our species. In addition, the development of a model of human evolution that can best explain neutral genetic diversity is required to identify confidently regions of the human genome that have been targeted by natural selection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We have resequenced 20 independent noncoding autosomal regions dispersed throughout the genome in 213 individuals from different continental populations, corresponding to a total of approximately 6 Mb of diploid resequencing data. We used these data to explore and co-estimate an extensive range of historical and demographic parameters with a statistical framework that combines the evaluation of multiple models of human evolution via a best-fit approach, followed by an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC analysis. From a methodological standpoint, evaluating the accuracy of the parameter co-estimation allowed us to identify the most accurate set of statistics to be used for the estimation of each of the different historical and demographic parameters characterizing recent human evolution. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results support a model in which modern humans left Africa through a single major dispersal event occurring approximately 60,000 years ago, corresponding to a drastic reduction of approximately 5 times the effective population size of the ancestral African population of approximately 13,800 individuals. Subsequently, the ancestors of modern Europeans and East Asians diverged much later, approximately 22,500 years ago, from the population of ancestral migrants. This late diversification of Eurasians after the African exodus points to the occurrence of a long maturation phase in which the ancestral Eurasian population was not yet diversified.

  10. demogR: A Package for the Construction and Analysis of Age-structured Demographic Models in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Holland Jones

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of matrix population models has become a fundamental tool in ecology, conservation biology, and life history theory. In this paper, I present demogR, a package for analyzing age-structured population models in R. The package includes tools for the construction and analysis of matrix population models. In addition to the standard analyses commonly used in evolutionary demography and conservation biology, demogR contains a variety of tools from classical demography. This includes the construction of period life tables, and the generation of model mortality and fertility schedules for human populations. The tools in demogR are generally applicable to age-structured populations but are particularly useful for analyzing problems in human ecology. I illustrate some of the capabilities of the package by doing an evolutionary demographic analysis of several human populations.

  11. Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tom E X

    2007-07-01

    1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

  12. Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilona Naujokaitis-Lewis

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0 that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat

  13. Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naujokaitis-Lewis, Ilona; Curtis, Janelle M R

    2016-01-01

    Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along

  14. Demographic and occupational predictors of early response to a mailed invitation to enroll in a longitudinal health study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Besa

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Often in survey research, subsets of the population invited to complete the survey do not respond in a timely manner and valuable resources are expended in recontact efforts. Various methods of improving response have been offered, such as reducing questionnaire length, offering incentives, and utilizing reminders; however, these methods can be costly. Utilizing characteristics of early responders (refusal or consent in enrollment and recontact efforts may be a unique and cost-effective approach for improving the quality of epidemiologic research. Methods To better understand early responders of any kind, we compared the characteristics of individuals who explicitly refused, consented, or did not respond within 2 months from the start of enrollment into a large cohort study of US military personnel. A multivariate polychotomous logistic regression model was used to estimate the effect of each covariate on the odds of early refusal and on the odds of early consent versus late/non-response, while simultaneously adjusting for all other variables in the model. Results From regression analyses, we found many similarities between early refusers and early consenters. Factors associated with both early refusal and early consent included older age, higher education, White race/ethnicity, Reserve/Guard affiliation, and certain information technology and support occupations. Conclusion These data suggest that early refusers may differ from late/non-responders, and that certain characteristics are associated with both early refusal and early consent to participate. Structured recruitment efforts that utilize these differences may achieve early response, thereby reducing mail costs and the use of valuable resources in subsequent contact efforts.

  15. Coping strategies in Spanish older adults: a MIMIC model of socio-demographic characteristics and activity level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio, Laura; Dumitrache, Cristina G; García, Alfonso J; Cordón-Pozo, Eulogio

    2016-11-02

    The aim of this study was to analyze the combined effect of socio-demographic characteristics and activity level on coping strategies and to test which of these variables has a greater impact on coping. A sample of 243 men and women aged 55-99 years old was selected from different elderly activity centers in Granada, Spain, using a convenience sampling. Associations between eight coping strategies measured by Coping Strategies Inventory and the above mentioned variables were examined using a Multiple Indicator and Multiple Causes model. Age was negatively related with problem solving, express emotions and social support. Activity level was positively related with problem solving, cognitive restructuring, express emotions and social support and it was negatively associated with social withdrawal. Gender only predicted the scores in self-criticism and living alone was related with higher emotional expression. Participation in creative activities, attending University for the third age and practicing physical exercise were related with differences in the use of several coping strategies. There is a complex relationship between socio-demographic characteristics, activity level and the coping strategies used by the elderly. It is important to understand this relationship in order to identify older adults who use ineffective coping, and to subsequently include them in intervention programs to improve their coping abilities.

  16. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dressler, Gunnar; Müller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

    2016-10-01

    Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  17. Using demographic models to project the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals: Pocillopora damicornis as a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramanti, L.; Iannelli, M.; Fan, T. Y.; Edmunds, P. J.

    2015-06-01

    Using empirical analyses of the effects of global climate change (GCC) and ocean acidification (OA) on the survival and calcification of early life stages of Pocillopora damicornis, we employed a demographic approach to forecast the consequences of GCC and OA on the population dynamics of this coral. We constructed a size-based demographic model using life-history tables and transition probabilities for a population in Southern Taiwan, and projected the population structure over ~100 yr under scenarios of warming and acidification. The simulations incorporated stochastic variability of the parameters (±5 %), decline in larval survival due to increases in temperature and pCO2, modified growth rates due to rising temperature, and larval input from distant populations. In a closed population, an increase of pCO2 from 40.5 to 91.2 Pa reduces density, and an increase in temperature from 26 to 29 °C results in population extirpation within 100 yr. With a larval supply of 10 % from distant populations, the population persisted regardless of high temperature (+3 °C). These results indicate that: (1) populations of P. damicornis may be resistant to GCC and OA so long as it persists as part of a metapopulation capable of supplying larvae from spatially separated populations and (2) early life stages can regulate the population dynamics of P. damicornis.

  18. Why do women deliver at home? Multilevel modeling of Ethiopian National Demographic and Health Survey data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henock Yebyo

    Full Text Available Despite of the existing intensive efforts to improve maternal health in Ethiopia, the proportion of birth delivered at home remains high and is still the top priority among the national health threats.The study aimed to examine effects of individual women and community-level factors of women's decision on place of delivery in Ethiopia.Data were obtained from the nationally representative 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS which used a two-stage cluster sampling design with rural-urban and regions as strata. The EDHS collected data from a big sample size but our study focused on a sample of 7,908 women whose most recent birth was within five years preceding 2011 and 576 communities in which the women were living in. The data were analyzed using a two-level mixed-effects logistic regression to determine fixed-effects of individual- and community-level factors and random-intercept of between-cluster characteristics.In the current study, 6980 out of 7908 deliveries (88.3% took place at home. Lower educational levels (OR=2.74, 95%CI:1.84,4.70; p<0.0001, making no or only a limited number of ANC visits (OR=3.72,95%CI:2.85, 4.83; p<0.0001, non-exposure to media (OR=1.51, 95%CI 1.13, 2.01; p=0.004, higher parity (OR=2.68, 95%CI:1.96,3.68; p<0.0001, and perceived distance problem to reach health facilities (OR=1.29, 95%CI:1.03,1.62; p=0.022 were positively associated with home delivery. About 75% of the total variance in the odds of giving birth at home was accounted for the between-community differences of characteristics (ICC=0.75, p<0.0001. With regard to community-level characteristics, rural communities (OR=4.67, 95%CI:3.06,7.11; p<0.0001, pastoralist communities (OR=4.53, 95%CI:2.81,7.28; p<0.0001, communities with higher poverty levels (OR=1.49 95%CI:1.08,2.22; p=0.048, with lower levels of ANC utilization (OR=2.01, 95%CI:1.42,2.85; p<0.0001 and problem of distance to a health facility (OR=1.29, 95%CI:1.03,1.62; p=0.004 had a

  19. Demographic consequences of increased winter births in a large aseasonally breeding mammal (Bos taurus) in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burthe, Sarah; Butler, Adam; Searle, Kate R; Hall, Stephen J G; Thackeray, Stephen J; Wanless, Sarah

    2011-11-01

    1. Studies examining changes in the scheduling of breeding in response to climate change have focused on species with well-defined breeding seasons. Species exhibiting year-round breeding have received little attention and the magnitudes of any responses are unknown. 2. We investigated phenological data for an enclosed feral population of cattle (Bos taurus L.) in northern England exhibiting year-round breeding. This population is relatively free of human interference. 3. We assessed whether the timing of births had changed over the last 60 years, in response to increasing winter and spring temperatures, changes in herd density, and a regime of lime fertilisation. 4. Median birth date became earlier by 1·0 days per year. Analyses of the seasonal distribution of calving dates showed that significantly fewer calves were born in summer (decline from 44% of total births to 20%) and significantly more in winter (increase from 12% to 30%) over the study period. The most pronounced changes occurred in winter, with significant increases in both the proportion and number of births. Winter births arise from conceptions in the previous spring, and we considered models that investigated climate and weather variables associated with the winter preceding and the spring of conceptions. 5. The proportion of winter births was higher when the onset of the plant growing season was earlier during the spring of conceptions. This relationship was much weaker during years when the site had been fertilised with lime, suggesting that increased forage biomass was over-riding the impacts of changing plant phenology. When the onset of the growing season was late, winter births increased with female density. 6. Recruitment estimates from a stage-structured state-space population model were significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of births in the preceding winter, suggesting that calves born in winter are less likely to survive than those born in other seasons. 7.

  20. Modelling hormonal response and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voß, Ute; Bishopp, Anthony; Farcot, Etienne; Bennett, Malcolm J

    2014-05-01

    As our knowledge of the complexity of hormone homeostasis, transport, perception, and response increases, and their outputs become less intuitive, modelling is set to become more important. Initial modelling efforts have focused on hormone transport and response pathways. However, we now need to move beyond the network scales and use multicellular and multiscale modelling approaches to predict emergent properties at different scales. Here we review some examples where such approaches have been successful, for example, auxin-cytokinin crosstalk regulating root vascular development or a study of lateral root emergence where an iterative cycle of modelling and experiments lead to the identification of an overlooked role for PIN3. Finally, we discuss some of the remaining biological and technical challenges. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessing the importance of demographic parameters for population dynamics using Bayesian integrated population modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eacker, Daniel R; Lukacs, Paul M; Proffitt, Kelly M; Hebblewhite, Mark

    2017-06-01

    To successfully respond to changing habitat, climate or harvest, managers need to identify the most effective strategies to reverse population trends of declining species and/or manage harvest of game species. A classic approach in conservation biology for the last two decades has been the use of matrix population models to determine the most important vital rates affecting population growth rate (λ), that is, sensitivity. Ecologists quickly realized the critical role of environmental variability in vital rates affecting λ by developing approaches such as life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) that account for both sensitivity and variability of a vital rate. These LSA methods used matrix-population modeling and Monte Carlo simulation methods, but faced challenges in integrating data from different sources, disentangling process and sampling variation, and in their flexibility. Here, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) for two populations of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) in Montana, USA. We then extended the IPM to evaluate sensitivity in a Bayesian framework. We integrated known-fate survival data from radio-marked adults and juveniles, fecundity data, and population counts in a hierarchical population model that explicitly accounted for process and sampling variance. Next, we tested the prevailing paradigm in large herbivore population ecology that juvenile survival of neonates modeling in a Bayesian framework can provide multiple advantages. Our Bayesian LSA framework will provide a useful approach to addressing conservation challenges across a variety of species and data types. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  2. Demographic noise and resilience in a semi-arid ecosystem model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Realpe-Gomez, J.; Baudena, M.; Galla, T.; McKane, A.J.; Rietkerk, M.

    2013-01-01

    The scarcity of water characterising drylands forces vegetation to adopt appropriate survival strategies. Some of these generate water–vegetation feedback mechanisms that can lead to spatial self-organisation of vegetation, as it has been shown with models representing plants by a density of

  3. Assessment of Prevalence of Persons with Down Syndrome: A Theory-Based Demographic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Gert; Vis, Jeroen C.; Haveman, Meindert; van Hove, Geert; de Graaf, Erik A. B.; Tijssen, Jan G. P.; Mulder, Barbara J. M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The Netherlands are lacking reliable empirical data in relation to the development of birth and population prevalence of Down syndrome. For the UK and Ireland there are more historical empirical data available. A theory-based model is developed for predicting Down syndrome prevalence in the Netherlands from the 1950s onwards. It is…

  4. Combining dendrochronology and matrix modelling in demographic studies: An evaluation for Juniperus procera in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Couralet, C.; Sass, U.G.W.; Sterck, F.J.; Zuidema, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tree demography was analysed by applying dendrochronological techniques and matrix modelling on a static data set of Juniperus procera populations of Ethiopian dry highland forests. Six permanent sample plots were established for an inventory of diameters and 11 stem discs were collected for

  5. The use of a lacertid lizard as a model for reptile ecotoxicology studies--part 1 field demographics and morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Maria José; Carretero, Miguel A; Bicho, Rita C; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Mann, Reinier M

    2012-05-01

    At the European level, lacertid lizards have been proposed as potential model species for reptile ecotoxicology. We studied demographic and morphological aspects of natural field subpopulations of Podarcis bocagei inhabiting similar agricultural habitats which were either regularly exposed to pesticides, or not. Parameters examined in this study included population size and density, sex ratio, adult body size, fluctuating asymmetry in femoral pores and parasite prevalence. In general, we detected few statistically significant differences between the exposed and reference subpopulations. Although field situations are ecologically complex and factors other than pesticides may be acting, the absence of observable effects on field subpopulations is probably indicative that lizards are coping or compensating for this level of exposure.

  6. A comparison of linear demographic models and fraction of lifetime egg production for assessing sustainability in sharks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapple, Taylor K; Botsford, Louis W

    2013-06-01

    Conventional methods for management of data-rich fisheries maintain sustainable populations by assuring that lifetime reproduction is adequate for individuals to replace themselves and accounting for density-dependent recruitment. Fishing is not allowed to reduce relative lifetime reproduction, the fraction of current egg production relative to unfished egg production (FLEP), below a sustainable level. Because most shark fisheries are data poor, other representations of persistence status have been used, including linear demographic models, which incorporate life-history characteristics in age-structured models with no density dependence. We tested how well measures of sustainability from 3 linear demographic methods (rebound potential, stochastic growth rate, and potential population increase) reflect actual population persistence by comparing values of these measures with FLEP for 26 shark species. We also calculated the value of fishing mortality (F) that would allow all 26 species to maintain an accepted precautionary threshold for sharks of FLEP = 60%, expressing F as a fraction of natural mortality (M). Values of stochastic growth rate and potential population growth did not covary in rank order with FLEP (p = 0.057 and p = 0.077, respectively) and neither was significantly correlated with FLEP. Ordinal ranking of rebound potential positively covaried with FLEP (p = 0.00013), but the relative rankings of some species were substantially out of order. Adopting a sustainable limit of F = 0.16M would maintain all 26 species above the precautionary minimum value of FLEP (60%). We concluded that shark-fishery and conservation policies should rely on calculation of replacement (i.e., FLEP), and that sharks should be fished at a precautionary level that would protect all stocks (i.e., F< 0.16M).

  7. Modeling geographic and demographic variability in residential concentrations of environmental tobacco smoke using national data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, Teresa; Schultz, Bradley; Zartarian, Valerie; Subramanian, S V; Spengler, John; Hammitt, James; Levy, Jonathan I

    2011-01-01

    Despite substantial attention toward environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure, previous studies have not provided adequate information to apply broadly within community-scale risk assessments. We aim to estimate residential concentrations of particulate matter (PM) from ETS in sociodemographic and geographic subpopulations in the United States for the purpose of screening-level risk assessment. We developed regression models to characterize smoking using the 2006-7 Current Population Survey--Tobacco Use Supplement, and linked these with air exchange models using the 2007 American Housing Survey. Using repeated logistic and log-linear models (n = 1000), we investigated whether household variables from the 2000 United States census can predict exposure likelihood and ETS-PM concentration in exposed households. We estimated a mean ETS-PM concentration of 16 μg/m(3) among the 17% of homes with non-zero exposure (3 μg/m(3) overall), with substantial variability among homes. The highest exposure likelihood was in the South and Midwest regions, rural populations, and low-income households. Concentrations in exposed households were highest in the South and demonstrated a non-monotonic association with income, related to air exchange rate patterns. We provide estimates of ETS-PM concentration distributions for different subpopulations in the United States, providing a starting point for communities interested in characterizing aggregate and cumulative risks from indoor pollutants.

  8. Radiogenomics and radiotherapy response modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Naqa, Issam; Kerns, Sarah L.; Coates, James; Luo, Yi; Speers, Corey; West, Catharine M. L.; Rosenstein, Barry S.; Ten Haken, Randall K.

    2017-08-01

    Advances in patient-specific information and biotechnology have contributed to a new era of computational medicine. Radiogenomics has emerged as a new field that investigates the role of genetics in treatment response to radiation therapy. Radiation oncology is currently attempting to embrace these recent advances and add to its rich history by maintaining its prominent role as a quantitative leader in oncologic response modeling. Here, we provide an overview of radiogenomics starting with genotyping, data aggregation, and application of different modeling approaches based on modifying traditional radiobiological methods or application of advanced machine learning techniques. We highlight the current status and potential for this new field to reshape the landscape of outcome modeling in radiotherapy and drive future advances in computational oncology.

  9. Pavement Aging Model by Response Surface Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manzano-Ramírez A.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work, surface course aging was modeled by Response Surface Methodology (RSM. The Marshall specimens were placed in a conventional oven for time and temperature conditions established on the basis of the environment factors of the region where the surface course is constructed by AC-20 from the Ing. Antonio M. Amor refinery. Volatilized material (VM, load resistance increment (ΔL and flow resistance increment (ΔF models were developed by the RSM. Cylindrical specimens with real aging were extracted from the surface course pilot to evaluate the error of the models. The VM model was adequate, in contrast (ΔL and (ΔF models were almost adequate with an error of 20 %, that was associated with the other environmental factors, which were not considered at the beginning of the research.

  10. MUSIDH, multiple use of simulated demographic histories, a novel method to reduce computation time in microsimulation models of infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, E A J; De Vlas, S J; Richardus, J H; Habbema, J D F

    2008-09-01

    Microsimulation of infectious diseases requires simulation of many life histories of interacting individuals. In particular, relatively rare infections such as leprosy need to be studied in very large populations. Computation time increases disproportionally with the size of the simulated population. We present a novel method, MUSIDH, an acronym for multiple use of simulated demographic histories, to reduce computation time. Demographic history refers to the processes of birth, death and all other demographic events that should be unrelated to the natural course of an infection, thus non-fatal infections. MUSIDH attaches a fixed number of infection histories to each demographic history, and these infection histories interact as if being the infection history of separate individuals. With two examples, mumps and leprosy, we show that the method can give a factor 50 reduction in computation time at the cost of a small loss in precision. The largest reductions are obtained for rare infections with complex demographic histories.

  11. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse Whittington

    Full Text Available Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071 for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975 for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981 for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024 for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948 for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957 for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative

  12. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth

  13. A Mixed Effects Randomized Item Response Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, J.-P.; Wyrick, Cheryl

    2008-01-01

    The randomized response technique ensures that individual item responses, denoted as true item responses, are randomized before observing them and so-called randomized item responses are observed. A relationship is specified between randomized item response data and true item response data. True item response data are modeled with a (non)linear…

  14. Environmental health and household demographics impacting biosand filter maintenance and diarrhea in Guatemala: an application of structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divelbiss, Daniel William; Boccelli, Dominic Louis; Succop, Paul Allan; Oerther, Daniel Barton

    2013-02-05

    In rural health development practice, engineers and scientists must recognize the complex interactions that influence individuals' contact with disease-causing pathogens and understand how household habits may impact the adoption and long-term sustainability of new technology. The goal of this study was to measure the effect of various environmental health factors and household demographics on the operation and maintenance of the Biosand filter (Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology, Calgary, Alberta, Canada) and diarrhea health burden in the region. In July and August 2010, randomized household surveys (n = 286) were completed in rural Guatemala detailing water access, sanitation availability, hygiene practice, socio-economic status, education level, filter operation and maintenance, and diarrhea health burden of the home. A hypothesized structural equation model was developed based on a review of published research and tested using the surveyed data. Model-derived parameter estimates indicated that: (a) proper personal hygiene practices significantly promote proper filter operation and maintenance; and (b) higher household education level, proper filter operation and maintenance, and improved water supply significantly reduce diarrhea health burden. Additionally, a high level of unexplained variance in diarrhea indicated the filter, though protective of health, is not the only factor influencing diarrhea.

  15. Demographic and Occupational Predictors of Early Response to a Mailed Invitation to Enroll in a Longitudinal Health Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-04-18

    Etter JF, Perneger TV: Analysis of non-response bias in a mailed health survey. J Clin Epidemiol 1997, 50(10):1123-1128. 11. Edwards P, Roberts I...to participate. Am J Epidemiol 2003, 157(1):66-73. 22. Groves RM, Cialdini RB, Couper MP: Understanding the decision to participate in a survey

  16. The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa A. McCauley; Christine A. Ribic; Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

    2017-01-01

    Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few...

  17. Technology, Demographic Characteristics and E-Learning Acceptance: A Conceptual Model Based on Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarhini, Ali; Elyas, Tariq; Akour, Mohammad Ali; Al-Salti, Zahran

    2016-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to develop an amalgamated conceptual model of technology acceptance that explains how individual, social, cultural and organizational factors affect the students' acceptance and usage behaviour of the Web-based learning systems. More specifically, the proposed model extends the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to…

  18. Demographic and Related Determinants of Recent Cuban Emigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briquets, Sergio Diaz

    1983-01-01

    Examines principal demographic determinants of recent Cuban emigration and discusses how these demographic variables interact with other social, economic, and political determinants. Suggests that Cuban labor migration is more responsive to demographic factors than some theorists assume. (Author/MJL)

  19. Childhood body mass index trajectories: modeling, characterizing, pairwise correlations and socio-demographic predictors of trajectory characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Xiaozhong

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Modeling childhood body mass index (BMI trajectories, versus estimating change in BMI between specific ages, may improve prediction of later body-size-related outcomes. Prior studies of BMI trajectories are limited by restricted age periods and insufficient use of trajectory information. Methods Among 3,289 children seen at 81,550 pediatric well-child visits from infancy to 18 years between 1980 and 2008, we fit individual BMI trajectories using mixed effect models with fractional polynomial functions. From each child's fitted trajectory, we estimated age and BMI at infancy peak and adiposity rebound, and velocity and area under curve between 1 week, infancy peak, adiposity rebound, and 18 years. Results Among boys, mean (SD ages at infancy BMI peak and adiposity rebound were 7.2 (0.9 and 49.2 (11.9 months, respectively. Among girls, mean (SD ages at infancy BMI peak and adiposity rebound were 7.4 (1.1 and 46.8 (11.0 months, respectively. Ages at infancy peak and adiposity rebound were weakly inversely correlated (r = -0.09. BMI at infancy peak and adiposity rebound were positively correlated (r = 0.76. Blacks had earlier adiposity rebound and greater velocity from adiposity rebound to 18 years of age than whites. Higher birth weight z-score predicted earlier adiposity rebound and higher BMI at infancy peak and adiposity rebound. BMI trajectories did not differ by birth year or type of health insurance, after adjusting for other socio-demographics and birth weight z-score. Conclusions Childhood BMI trajectory characteristics are informative in describing childhood body mass changes and can be estimated conveniently. Future research should evaluate associations of these novel BMI trajectory characteristics with adult outcomes.

  20. An Analysis of the Relationship of Military Affiliation to Demographics, New Sailor Survey Responses, and Boot Camp Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    recruit to indicate his or her level of awareness regarding various Navy sponsorships (e.g. NFL, NASCAR, NBA etc.) The responses with respect to military...awareness of the Navy’s sponsorship of the following: NCAA Basketball Chi-Squared Statistic 2.4811 p-value 0.6480 Question 20e: The Navy...following: NCAA Basketball 50.2% 51.4% 16.3% 14.3% 14.7% 7.4% 8.8% 11.7% 9.9%15.3% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Military Affiliation No Military

  1. Demographic modelling approach for assessment of environmental conditions which control the population of the invasive Ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the Mediterranean Seas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiganova, Tamara; Nival, Paul; Carlotti, Francois; Alekseenko, Elena

    2017-04-01

    At the beginning of the 1980s predatory ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi (M.l.) invaded into the Black Sea, successfully established and gave huge blooms. As a result biodiversity of the representative of all levels of ecosystem greatly dropped as well as fishery stocks. In the following years, M.leidyi penetrated in all the seas of the Mediterranean basin with currents and with ballast water in the Caspian Sea. According to genetic analyses performed by Ghabooli et al. (2013) the distribution of genetic diversity and pattern of genetic differentiation determined the initial colonization of the Mediterranean, Azov, Caspian seas from the Black Sea. Ten years later, another ctenophore Beroe ovata (B.o.), a predator of M.l., spontaneously arrived in the Black Sea and the ecosystem started to recover its previous biodiversity (Shiganova et al., 2014). However, in recent years M.l. blooms are more and more observed in the other coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin. Therefore, the drivers (environmental conditions) of these blooms are still questioned and should be further studied in details. The main objective is to understand the environmental conditions which favors blooms of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi and its dispersal in the Mediterranean basin, which is characterized by a strong anthropogenic impact and even in some areas the degradation of coastal ecosystems. Modeling based on long-term field and experimental data of demographical and physiological parameters of M.l. help us to understand the conditions facilitated blooms in the Mediterranean basin based on the responses of underlying processes (growth and reproduction, predation) to environmental factors. The demographic model (MBd) used for this purpose include the main developmental stages of both ctenophores, their duration in function of temperature and zooplankton concentration. It was considered that the timing of growth of both species M.l. and B.o. is crucial in their interaction. At first

  2. Combining gene expression, demographic and clinical data in modeling disease: a case study of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobrin Seth

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents a retrospective statistical study on the newly-released data set by the Stanley Neuropathology Consortium on gene expression in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. This data set contains gene expression data as well as limited demographic and clinical data for each subject. Previous studies using statistical classification or machine learning algorithms have focused on gene expression data only. The present paper investigates if such techniques can benefit from including demographic and clinical data. Results We compare six classification algorithms: support vector machines (SVMs, nearest shrunken centroids, decision trees, ensemble of voters, naïve Bayes, and nearest neighbor. SVMs outperform the other algorithms. Using expression data only, they yield an area under the ROC curve of 0.92 for bipolar disorder versus control, and 0.91 for schizophrenia versus control. By including demographic and clinical data, classification performance improves to 0.97 and 0.94 respectively. Conclusion This paper demonstrates that SVMs can distinguish bipolar disorder and schizophrenia from normal control at a very high rate. Moreover, it shows that classification performance improves by including demographic and clinical data. We also found that some variables in this data set, such as alcohol and drug use, are strongly associated to the diseases. These variables may affect gene expression and make it more difficult to identify genes that are directly associated to the diseases. Stratification can correct for such variables, but we show that this reduces the power of the statistical methods.

  3. DEMOGRAPHIC VULNERABILITIES IN TECUCI PLAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian Adrian ŞORCARU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focuses on analyzing and mapping 8 indicators considered to best reflect the demographic vulnerability in Tecuci Plain in the year 2010 and proposes a model of aggregation which finally allows us to distinguish three major types of demographic vulnerability (low, medium and high. Mapping the final values also shows significant disparities in the territorial administrative units that broadly overlap the plain, the most vulnerable being Tecuci city and the peripheral communes, towards Vrancea and Vaslui Counties.

  4. Intensive Care Research Coordinators in Australia and New Zealand: a cross-sectional survey of demographics, responsibilities, job satisfaction and importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Brigit; Eastwood, Glenn M; Raunow, Heike; Howe, Belinda; Rickard, Claire M

    2011-11-01

    The achievement of successful clinical research projects depends on multiple team members including Research Coordinators (RCs), who are the link between the researcher and the trial participants. The RCs main responsibility is to ensure that all research is conducted according to the appropriate protocols, regulations and guidelines. Description of demographics, the role and associated responsibilities and assessment of items of importance to, and satisfaction with, various job related items. An observational web-based cross-sectional study of RCs working in Intensive Care Units (ICU) across Australia and New Zealand. Fifty-six participants completed the survey. Forty percent had more than 6 years experience in ICU research and one-third held a Masters Degree. Most respondents performed research related tasks including ethics submission, patient screening, education and data collection. Autonomy and work hours were the most satisfying job characteristics reported and aspects relating to autonomy were most important for the RCs. Inadequate remuneration was of great concern to the participants. Research Coordinators in Australia and New Zealand have many and varied roles with a significant workload. Unfortunately, the RCs do not feel their employers are adequately remunerating the demand on their time and efforts. The results indicate that RCs enjoy high levels of satisfaction with general conditions and facets of their work and its environment and they remain passionate about their role in the ICU setting. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A Model of Academic Social Responsability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Mihaela DIMA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops the idea of academic social responsibility derived from the corporate social responsibility, presents the main achievements of the Romanian higher education system from the perspective of social responsibility and proposes a model of social responsibility in universities based on six dimensions determined by extensive literature review and content analysis.

  6. Category Specificity of Self-Reported Sexual Attraction and Viewing Times to Male and Female Models in a Large U.S. Sample: Sex, Sexual Orientation, and Demographic Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippa, Richard A

    2017-01-01

    Recent research has documented large and robust sex differences in the category specificity of self-reported sexual attraction and viewing times to men and women, with men showing more polarized responses to the two sexes than women. However, this research has been limited by the use of small and restricted samples. To address this, the current study assessed a representative sample of more than 2800 U.S. adults on demographic and attitudinal variables and on two measures of category specificity: one based on self-reported sexual attraction and the other based on viewing times to male and female swimsuit models. Key findings were replicated. On average, men were considerably more category specific in self-reported sexual attraction and viewing times than women, and this was true for both heterosexual and homosexual participants. Self-identified bisexual and asexual participants tended to be lower on category specificity than other groups. Although demographic and attitudinal factors such as age, ethnicity, state and region of residence, social class, political liberalism-conservatism, and religiousness were sometimes weakly related to category specificity, sex differences in category specificity remained robust despite demographic and attitudinal variation.

  7. STRESS RESPONSE STUDIES USING ANIMAL MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will provide the evidence that ozone exposure in animal models induce neuroendocrine stress response and this stress response modulates lung injury and inflammation through adrenergic and glucocorticoid receptors.

  8. Data modelling for emergency response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dilo, Arta; Zlatanova, Sidi

    2010-01-01

    Emergency response is one of the most demanding phases in disaster management. The fire brigade, paramedics, police and municipality are the organisations involved in the first response to the incident. They coordinate their work based on welldefined policies and procedures, but they also need the m

  9. Adaptive Modeling for Security Infrastructure Fault Response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CUI Zhong-jie; YAO Shu-ping; HU Chang-zhen

    2008-01-01

    Based on the analysis of inherent limitations in existing security response decision-making systems, a dynamic adaptive model of fault response is presented. Several security fault levels were founded, which comprise the basic level, equipment level and mechanism level. Fault damage cost is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process. Meanwhile, the model evaluates the impact of different responses upon fault repair and normal operation. Response operation cost and response negative cost are introduced through quantitative calculation. This model adopts a comprehensive response decision of security fault in three principles-the maximum and minimum principle, timeliness principle, acquiescence principle, which assure optimal response countermeasure is selected for different situations. Experimental results show that the proposed model has good self-adaptation ability, timeliness and cost-sensitiveness.

  10. Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanta, L.

    2016-12-01

    Outdoor water use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end use in residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density or lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, records of outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for

  11. Detailed Modeling and Response of Demand Response Enabled Appliances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyakaranam, Bharat; Fuller, Jason C.

    2014-04-14

    Proper modeling of end use loads is very important in order to predict their behavior, and how they interact with the power system, including voltage and temperature dependencies, power system and load control functions, and the complex interactions that occur between devices in such an interconnected system. This paper develops multi-state time variant residential appliance models with demand response enabled capabilities in the GridLAB-DTM simulation environment. These models represent not only the baseline instantaneous power demand and energy consumption, but the control systems developed by GE Appliances to enable response to demand response signals and the change in behavior of the appliance in response to the signal. These DR enabled appliances are simulated to estimate their capability to reduce peak demand and energy consumption.

  12. Modeling noisy resonant system response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Patrick Thomas; Walrath, David Edwin

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, a theory-based model replicating empirical acoustic resonant signals is presented and studied to understand sources of noise present in acoustic signals. Statistical properties of empirical signals are quantified and a noise amplitude parameter, which models frequency and amplitude-based noise, is created, defined, and presented. This theory-driven model isolates each phenomenon and allows for parameters to be independently studied. Using seven independent degrees of freedom, this model will accurately reproduce qualitative and quantitative properties measured from laboratory data. Results are presented and demonstrate success in replicating qualitative and quantitative properties of experimental data.

  13. Mathematical Modelling of Immune Response in Tissues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Su

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We have developed a spatial–temporal mathematical model (PDE to capture fundamental aspects of the immune response to antigen. We have considered terms that broadly describe intercellular communication, cell movement, and effector function (activation or inhibition. The PDE model is robust to variation in antigen load and it can account for (1 antigen recognition, (2 an innate immune response, (3 an adaptive immune response, (4 the elimination of antigen and subsequent resolution of the immune response or (5 equilibrium of the immune response to the presence of persistent antigen (chronic infection and the formation of a granuloma.

  14. The relative contributions of disease and insects in the decline of a long-lived tree: a stochastic demographic model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Erik S; Jackson, Jenell I.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Beck, Jennifer S.; Murray, Michael P.; Sahara, E. April

    2016-01-01

    Pathogens and insect pests have become increasingly important drivers of tree mortality in forested ecosystems. Unfortunately, understanding the relative contributions of multiple mortality agents to the population decline of trees is difficult, because it requires frequent measures of tree survival, growth, and recruitment, as well as the incidence of mortality agents. We present a population model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a high-elevation tree undergoing rapid decline in western North America. The loss of whitebark pine is thought to be primarily due to an invasive pathogen (white pine blister rust; Cronartium ribicola) and a native insect (mountain pine beetle; Dendroctonus ponderosae). We utilized seven plots in Crater Lake National Park (Oregon, USA) where 1220 trees were surveyed for health and the presence of blister rust and beetle activity annually from 2003–2014, except 2008. We constructed size-based projection matrices for nine years and calculated the deterministic growth rate (λ) using an average matrix and the stochastic growth rate (λs) by simulation for whitebark pine in our study population. We then assessed the roles of blister rust and beetles by calculating λ and λsusing matrices in which we removed trees with blister rust and, separately, trees with beetles. We also conducted life-table response experiments (LTRE) to determine which demographic changes contributed most to differences in λ between ambient conditions and the two other scenarios. The model suggests that whitebark pine in our plots are currently declining 1.1% per year (λ = 0.9888, λs = 0.9899). Removing blister rust from the models resulted in almost no increase in growth (λ = 0.9916, λs = 0.9930), while removing beetles resulted in a larger increase in growth (λ = 1.0028, λs = 1.0045). The LTRE demonstrated that reductions in stasis of the three largest size classes due to beetles contributed most to the smaller λ in the ambient condition

  15. Stochastic Still Water Response Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2002-01-01

    In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...... is to establish the stochastic load field conditional on a given draft and trim of the vessel. The model contributes to a realistic modelling of the stochastic load processes to be used in a reliability evaluation of the ship hull. Emphasis is given to container vessels. The formulation of the model for obtaining...... the stochastic cargo container load field is based on a queuing and loading policy that assumes containers are handled by a first-come-first-serve policy. The load field is assumed to be Gaussian. The ballast system is imposed to counteract the angle of heel and to regulate both the draft and the trim caused...

  16. Diagnosing Response Style Behavior by Means of a Latent-Class Factor Approach. Socio-Demographic Correlates of Gender Role Attitudes and Perceptions of Ethnic Discrimination Reexamined

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moors, G.B.D.

    2003-01-01

    It is generally accepted that response style behavior in survey research may seriously distort the measurement of attitudes and subsequent causal models that include attitudinal dimensions. However, there in no single accepted methodological approach in dealing with this issue. This article aims at

  17. Diagnosing Response Style Behavior by Means of a Latent-Class Factor Approach. Socio-Demographic Correlates of Gender Role Attitudes and Perceptions of Ethnic Discrimination Reexamined

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moors, G.B.D.

    2003-01-01

    It is generally accepted that response style behavior in survey research may seriously distort the measurement of attitudes and subsequent causal models that include attitudinal dimensions. However, there in no single accepted methodological approach in dealing with this issue. This article aims at

  18. Assessing the roles of impulsivity, food-related cognitions, BMI, and demographics in the dual pathway model of binge eating among men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Tyler B; Lewis, Robin J

    2015-08-01

    The dual pathway model is a widely accepted model of binge eating that focuses on the role of sociocultural factors, negative affect, and dietary restraint. However, less is known about demographic (e.g., gender and ethnicity) differences in the model and the role of other variables in the model. To further our understanding of the dual pathway model of binge eating, the current study examined the role of demographics (i.e., gender, race, BMI, parental education and obesity), impulsivity, and food-related cognitions in the dual pathway model. A sample of college students completed a battery of measures. Multi-group structural equation modeling was used to evaluate the dual pathway model separately for men and women. Results supported the dual pathway model of binge eating among men and women, and also supported food-related cognitions as an important variable prior to binge eating. In other words, body shame was associated with more dietary restraint and negative affect, and in turn, dietary restraint and negative affect were associated with increased negative food-related cognitions. Then, food-related cognitions predicted binge eating. Additionally impulsivity was related to body shame, negative affect, and food-related cognitions, but was unrelated to binge eating after controlling for the other variables. Racial differences existed among women in BMI and body shame, but there were no racial differences among men. Our results suggest that the dual pathway model adequately explains binge eating among men and women, but that food-related cognitions may be an imporant anteceden to binge eating.

  19. Risk adjustment models for interhospital comparison of CS rates using Robson's ten group classification system and other socio-demographic and clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colais, Paola; Fantini, Maria P; Fusco, Danilo; Carretta, Elisa; Stivanello, Elisa; Lenzi, Jacopo; Pieri, Giulia; Perucci, Carlo A

    2012-06-21

    Caesarean section (CS) rate is a quality of health care indicator frequently used at national and international level. The aim of this study was to assess whether adjustment for Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS), and clinical and socio-demographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of CS rates. The study population includes 64,423 deliveries in Emilia-Romagna between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004, classified according to theTGCS. Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted hospital relative risks of CS compared to a reference category. Analyses were carried out in the overall population and separately according to the Robson groups (groups I, II, III, IV and V-X combined). Adjusted relative risks (RR) of CS were estimated using two risk-adjustment models; the first (M1) including the TGCS group as the only adjustment factor; the second (M2) including in addition demographic and clinical confounders identified using a stepwise selection procedure. Percentage variations between crude and adjusted RRs by hospital were calculated to evaluate the confounding effect of covariates. The percentage variations from crude to adjusted RR proved to be similar in M1 and M2 model. However, stratified analyses by Robson's classification groups showed that residual confounding for clinical and demographic variables was present in groups I (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and III (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and to a minor extent in groups II (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour). The TGCS classification is useful for inter-hospital comparison of CS section rates, but

  20. Using experiments and demographic models to assess rare plant vulnerability to utlity-scale solar energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Pressing challenges for the implementation of solar energy are the effects of construction and operation on protected animal and plant species. Siting and mitigation of solar energy often requires understanding of basic biology and distributions of rare species that are unknown. How can we rapidly collect the information necessary on species- and site-specific population dynamics to effectively design mitigation and conservation measures? We have developed an integrated approach to assessing the vulnerability of a suite of representative rare plant species in the region. We implemented a prioritized series of demographic and experimental studies over the past four years to identify the types of species, populations, and life stages most vulnerable to impact or prone to conservation efforts. We have found substantial variation in vegetative and sexual reproduction between study populations for several rare plants, including between populations that vary in putative impact by development and/or effects of experimental solar arrays. For a subset of species, we designed population viability analysis and applied them to identify sensitive vital rates and compare quasi-extinction probabilities under different climate and impact scenarios. By utilizing practical experiments to test for the effects of real or simulated impacts, we found differences in vital rates between natural and disturbed populations adjacent to and within solar installations. We draw conclusions from our work to guide the analysis of benefits, permitting, and design of utility-scale solar energy facilities.

  1. Simplified Warfarin Dose-response Pharmacodynamic Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Seongho; Gaweda, Adam E.; Wu, Dongfeng; Li, Lang; Shesh N Rai; Brier, Michael E.

    2015-01-01

    Warfarin is a frequently used oral anticoagulant for long-term prevention and treatment of thromboembolic events. Due to its narrow therapeutic range and large inter-individual dose-response variability, it is highly desirable to personalize warfarin dosing. However, the complexity of the conventional kinetic-pharmacodynamic (K-PD) models hampers the development of the personalized dose management. To avert this challenge, we propose simplified PD models for warfarin dose-response relationshi...

  2. Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing s...... as it pinpoints which decisions to be concerned about when the goal is to predict footbridge response. The studies involve estimating footbridge responses using Monte-Carlo simulations and focus is on estimating vertical structural response to single person loading....

  3. Democratic constraints on demographic policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigsby, J S

    1984-01-01

    The discussion compares the population policies adopted in Sweden during the 1930s to raise fertiity and the policies considered in the US during the 1970s in response to the high fertility experienced in the 1950s. Both sets of policies recommended increased availability of birth control, more liberal abortion laws, and greater employment opportunities for women. It becomes evident that the constraints imposed by a democratic system of government translate into policy recommendations that place individual freedom of choice and equal opportunity for all citizens as higher goals than any specific demographic target. Consequently, the population commissions of Sweden and the US made similar suggestions on how to resolve their opposite demographic problems. The demographic situations in the 2 nations were antipodal, and the countries also had very different social climates. This additional disparity was insufficient to counterbalance the apparently overwhelming influence of the democratic political systems in making virtually identical policy recommendations. Yet, the contrasting social climates of Sweden in 1935 and the US in 1970-72 may explain the different reactions each commission received. In terms of the responses by both citizens and government officials to the commissions' reports, the Swedish commission was more successful. Practically all of their recommendations were enthusiastically received and quickly adopted by the Swedish Riksdag. Yet, when the criterion for success becomes whether or not a demographic target was met, it increased in the 1940s and then dropped again while the same social policies were in effect. Even before the US commission began its study, fertility in the US had fallen and continues to remain low. These findings suggest that commissions in democratic countries will most likely never recommend dramatic measures in population policy. Thus, it is questionable whether such commissions in democratic nations will totally fulfill the

  4. How to get the timing right. A computational model of the effects of the timing of contacts on team cohesion in demographically diverse teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flache, Andreas; Mäs, Michael

    Lau and Murnighan’s faultline theory explains negative effects of demographic diversity on team performance as consequence of strong demographic faultlines. If demographic differences between group members are correlated across various dimensions, the team is likely to show a “subgroup split” that

  5. Taxonomy for Modeling Demand Response Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Daniel; Kiliccote, Sila; Sohn, Michael; Dunn, Laura; Piette, Mary, A

    2014-08-01

    Demand response resources are an important component of modern grid management strategies. Accurate characterizations of DR resources are needed to develop systems of optimally managed grid operations and to plan future investments in generation, transmission, and distribution. The DOE Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study (DRESIS) project researched the degree to which demand response (DR) and energy storage can provide grid flexibility and stability in the Western Interconnection. In this work, DR resources were integrated with traditional generators in grid forecasting tools, specifically a production cost model of the Western Interconnection. As part of this study, LBNL developed a modeling framework for characterizing resource availability and response attributes of DR resources consistent with the governing architecture of the simulation modeling platform. In this report, we identify and describe the following response attributes required to accurately characterize DR resources: allowable response frequency, maximum response duration, minimum time needed to achieve load changes, necessary pre- or re-charging of integrated energy storage, costs of enablement, magnitude of controlled resources, and alignment of availability. We describe a framework for modeling these response attributes, and apply this framework to characterize 13 DR resources including residential, commercial, and industrial end-uses. We group these end-uses into three broad categories based on their response capabilities, and define a taxonomy for classifying DR resources within these categories. The three categories of resources exhibit different capabilities and differ in value to the grid. Results from the production cost model of the Western Interconnection illustrate that minor differences in resource attributes can have significant impact on grid utilization of DR resources. The implications of these findings will be explored in future DR valuation studies.

  6. A Dexterous Optional Randomized Response Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarray, Tanveer A.; Singh, Housila P.; Yan, Zaizai

    2017-01-01

    This article addresses the problem of estimating the proportion Pi[subscript S] of the population belonging to a sensitive group using optional randomized response technique in stratified sampling based on Mangat model that has proportional and Neyman allocation and larger gain in efficiency. Numerically, it is found that the suggested model is…

  7. Multivariate Model for Test Response Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krishnan, Shaji; Krishnan, Shaji; Kerkhoff, Hans G.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic approach to construct an effective multivariate test response model for capturing manufacturing defects in electronic products is described. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by its capability in reducing the number of test-points, while achieving the maximal coverage

  8. Multivariate model for test response analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krishnan, S.; Kerkhoff, H.G.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic approach to construct an effective multivariate test response model for capturing manufacturing defects in electronic products is described. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by its capability in reducing the number of test-points, while achieving the maximal coverage attai

  9. A method to evaluate response models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnes, Merijn; Wapperom, Sjoerd; op den Akker, Hendrikus J.A.; Heylen, Dirk K.J.; Bickmore, Timothy; Marcella, Stacy; Sidner, Candace

    We are working towards computational models of mind of virtual characters that act as suspects in interview (interrogation) training of police officers. We implemented a model that calculates the responses of the virtual suspect based on theory and observation. We evaluated it by means of our test,

  10. Multivariate model for test response analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krishnan, S.; Kerkhoff, H.G.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic approach to construct an effective multivariate test response model for capturing manufacturing defects in electronic products is described. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by its capability in reducing the number of test-points, while achieving the maximal coverage attai

  11. Experimental model updating using frequency response functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Yu; Liu, Xi; Dong, Xinjun; Wang, Yang; Pu, Qianhui

    2016-04-01

    In order to obtain a finite element (FE) model that can more accurately describe structural behaviors, experimental data measured from the actual structure can be used to update the FE model. The process is known as FE model updating. In this paper, a frequency response function (FRF)-based model updating approach is presented. The approach attempts to minimize the difference between analytical and experimental FRFs, while the experimental FRFs are calculated using simultaneously measured dynamic excitation and corresponding structural responses. In this study, the FRF-based model updating method is validated through laboratory experiments on a four-story shear-frame structure. To obtain the experimental FRFs, shake table tests and impact hammer tests are performed. The FRF-based model updating method is shown to successfully update the stiffness, mass and damping parameters of the four-story structure, so that the analytical and experimental FRFs match well with each other.

  12. Do Insect Populations Die at Constant Rates as They Become Older? Contrasting Demographic Failure Kinetics with Respect to Temperature According to the Weibull Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petros Damos

    Full Text Available Temperature implies contrasting biological causes of demographic aging in poikilotherms. In this work, we used the reliability theory to describe the consistency of mortality with age in moth populations and to show that differentiation in hazard rates is related to extrinsic environmental causes such as temperature. Moreover, experiments that manipulate extrinsic mortality were used to distinguish temperature-related death rates and the pertinence of the Weibull aging model. The Newton-Raphson optimization method was applied to calculate parameters for small samples of ages at death by estimating the maximum likelihoods surfaces using scored gradient vectors and the Hessian matrix. The study reveals for the first time that the Weibull function is able to describe contrasting biological causes of demographic aging for moth populations maintained at different temperature regimes. We demonstrate that at favourable conditions the insect death rate accelerates as age advances, in contrast to the extreme temperatures in which each individual drifts toward death in a linear fashion and has a constant chance of passing away. Moreover, slope of hazard rates shifts towards a constant initial rate which is a pattern demonstrated by systems which are not wearing out (e.g. non-aging since the failure, or death, is a random event independent of time. This finding may appear surprising, because, traditionally, it was mostly thought as rule that in aging population force of mortality increases exponentially until all individuals have died. Moreover, in relation to other studies, we have not observed any typical decelerating aging patterns at late life (mortality leveling-off, but rather, accelerated hazard rates at optimum temperatures and a stabilized increase at the extremes.In most cases, the increase in aging-related mortality was simulated reasonably well according to the Weibull survivorship model that is applied. Moreover, semi log- probability hazard

  13. Mathematical Modeling Social Responsibility for Dynamic Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Chavoshbashi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic organizations as accountable organizations, for transparency and accountability to its stakeholders to stakeholders for their toward performance there should express their commitment to social responsibility are through their values and ensure that this commitment throughout the organization are now and thus will have a social responsibility for their mutual benefit, so there is more and more coherent in their ethical approach takes advantage and the community and stakeholders and the organization will have better performance and strengths. Because of interest in social responsibility, in this paper dynamic model is presented for Corporate Social Responsibility of Bionic organization. Model presented a new model is inspired by chaos theory and natural systems theory based on bifurcation in creation to be all natural systems, realizing the value of responsibility as one of the fundamental values of social and institutional development that the relationship between business and work environment in the global market economy and range will be specified. First Social Responsibility factors identified, then experts and scholars determine the weight of the components and technical coefficient for modeling and paired comparison has been done using MATLAB mathematical Software.

  14. Optimal design for nonlinear response models

    CERN Document Server

    Fedorov, Valerii V

    2013-01-01

    Optimal Design for Nonlinear Response Models discusses the theory and applications of model-based experimental design with a strong emphasis on biopharmaceutical studies. The book draws on the authors' many years of experience in academia and the pharmaceutical industry. While the focus is on nonlinear models, the book begins with an explanation of the key ideas, using linear models as examples. Applying the linearization in the parameter space, it then covers nonlinear models and locally optimal designs as well as minimax, optimal on average, and Bayesian designs. The authors also discuss ada

  15. Laboratory Demographics Lookup Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This website provides demographic information about laboratories, including CLIA number, facility name and address, where the laboratory testing is performed, the...

  16. Responsive supply chain: modeling and simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar Sinha

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Unexpected occurrence like natural calamity, abruptly change in customer demands, upgradation of technologies, necessity of compatible suppliers etc. is the most challenging issues even for efficient global supply chain management. Therefore, modeling of responsive supply chain is an emerging technology for sustaining any firm/industry in future competitive environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to not only analyze the performance of efficient supply chain management but also how to improve the performance of existing supply chain with the objective of developing a modeling of responsive supply chain management. The complexity of the model is also highlighted with the help of numerical example. This paper also explores the possibility to mathematical modeling of the responsive supply chain which will be an emerging topic for researchers and practitioners. The modeling of responsive supply chain can be employed as a competitive strategy for e-commerce, green supply chain, and compatible supplier selection problem. The another salient feature of this paper is that a distinct comparative literature review of the lean, agile, efficient, and responsive supply chain management has been presented.

  17. Investigating patient safety culture across a health system: multilevel modelling of differences associated with service types and staff demographics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallego, Blanca; Westbrook, Mary T; Dunn, Adam G; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

    2012-01-01

    To use multilevel modelling to compare the patient safety cultures of types of services across a health system and to determine whether differences found can be accounted for by staffs' professions...

  18. Childhood body mass index trajectories: modeling, characterizing, pairwise correlations and socio-demographic predictors of trajectory characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Wen Xiaozhong; Kleinman Ken; Gillman Matthew W; Rifas-Shiman Sheryl L; Taveras Elsie M

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Modeling childhood body mass index (BMI) trajectories, versus estimating change in BMI between specific ages, may improve prediction of later body-size-related outcomes. Prior studies of BMI trajectories are limited by restricted age periods and insufficient use of trajectory information. Methods Among 3,289 children seen at 81,550 pediatric well-child visits from infancy to 18 years between 1980 and 2008, we fit individual BMI trajectories using mixed effect models with f...

  19. Demographic projection of high-elevation white pines infected with white pine blister rust: a nonlinear disease model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, S G; Schoettle, A W; Klutsch, J G; Tavener, S J; Antolin, M F

    2012-01-01

    Matrix population models have long been used to examine and predict the fate of threatened populations. However, the majority of these efforts concentrate on long-term equilibrium dynamics of linear systems and their underlying assumptions and, therefore, omit the analysis of transience. Since management decisions are typically concerned with the short-term (blister rust (WPBR). We evaluate the model using newly developed software to calculate sensitivity and elasticity for nonlinear population models at any projected time step. We concentrate on two points in time, during transience and at equilibrium, and under two scenarios: a regenerating pine stand following environmental disturbance and a stand perturbed by the introduction of WPBR. The model includes strong density-dependent effects on population dynamics, particularly on seedling recruitment, and results in a structure favoring large trees. However, the introduction of WPBR and its associated disease-induced mortality alters stand structure in favor of smaller stages. Populations with infection probability (beta) > or = 0.1 do not reach a stable coexisting equilibrium and deterministically approach extinction. The model enables field observations of low infection prevalence among pine seedlings to be reinterpreted as resulting from disease-induced mortality and short residence time in the seedling stage. Sensitivities and elasticities, combined with model output, suggest that future efforts should focus on improving estimates of within-stand competition, infection probability, and infection cost to survivorship. Mitigating these effects where intervention is possible is expected to produce the greatest effect on population dynamics over a typical management timeframe.

  20. Combustion response modeling for composite solid propellants

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-01-01

    A computerized mathematical model of the combustion response function of composite solid propellants was developed with particular attention to the contributions of the solid phase heterogeneity. The one-dimensional model treats the solid phase as alternating layers of ammonium perchlorate and binder, with an exothermic melt layer at the surface. Solution of the Fourier heat equation in the solid provides temperature and heat flux distributions with space and time. The problem is solved by conserving the heat flux at the surface from that produced by a suitable model of the gas phase. An approximation of the BDP flame model is utilized to represent the gas phase. By the use of several reasonable assumptions, it is found that a significant portion of the problem can be solved in closed form. A method is presented by which the model can be applied to tetramodal particle size distributions. A computerized steady-state version of the model was completed, which served to validate the various approximations and lay a foundation for the combustion response modeling. The combustion response modeling was completed in a form which does not require an iterative solution, and some preliminary results were acquired.

  1. An Activation Threshold Model for Response Inhibition

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Hayley J.; McMorland, Angus J. C.; Stinear, Cathy M.; Coxon, James P.; Byblow, Winston D.

    2017-01-01

    Reactive response inhibition (RI) is the cancellation of a prepared response when it is no longer appropriate. Selectivity of RI can be examined by cueing the cancellation of one component of a prepared multi-component response. This substantially delays execution of other components. There is debate regarding whether this response delay is due to a selective neural mechanism. Here we propose a computational activation threshold model (ATM) and test it against a classical “horse-race” model using behavioural and neurophysiological data from partial RI experiments. The models comprise both facilitatory and inhibitory processes that compete upstream of motor output regions. Summary statistics (means and standard deviations) of predicted muscular and neurophysiological data were fit in both models to equivalent experimental measures by minimizing a Pearson Chi-square statistic. The ATM best captured behavioural and neurophysiological dynamics of partial RI. The ATM demonstrated that the observed modulation of corticomotor excitability during partial RI can be explained by nonselective inhibition of the prepared response. The inhibition raised the activation threshold to a level that could not be reached by the original response. This was necessarily followed by an additional phase of facilitation representing a secondary activation process in order to reach the new inhibition threshold and initiate the executed component of the response. The ATM offers a mechanistic description of the neural events underlying RI, in which partial movement cancellation results from a nonselective inhibitory event followed by subsequent initiation of a new response. The ATM provides a framework for considering and exploring the neuroanatomical constraints that underlie RI. PMID:28085907

  2. Civilian Crisis Response Models (Dagstuhl Seminar 13041)

    OpenAIRE

    Katzy, Bernhard; Lechner, Ulrike

    2013-01-01

    This report documents the program and the outcomes of Dagstuhl Seminar 13041 "Civilian Crisis Response Models". The vulnerability of modern societies to the threats of man made and natural disaster increases and scale and number of disasters are expected to rise. The earthquakes of Haiti with its subsequent Cholera epidemics, the natural disasters in Pakistan as well as the ongoing situation in Japan illustrate the need for effective and efficient crisis and disaster response organization...

  3. Count response model for the CMB spots

    CERN Document Server

    Giovannini, Massimo

    2010-01-01

    The statistics of the curvature quanta generated during a stage of inflationary expansion is used to derive a count response model for the large-scale phonons determining, in the concordance lore, the warmer and the cooler spots of the large-scale temperature inhomogeneities. The multiplicity distributions for the counting statistics are shown to be generically overdispersed in comparison with conventional Poissonian regressions. The generalized count response model deduced hereunder accommodates an excess of correlations in the regime of high multiplicities and prompts dedicated analyses with forthcoming data collected by instruments of high angular resolution and high sensitivity to temperature variations per pixel.

  4. Model identification for dose response signal detection

    OpenAIRE

    Bretz, Frank; Dette, Holger; Titoff, Stefanie; Volgushev, Stanislav

    2012-01-01

    We consider the problem of detecting a dose response signal if several competing regression models are available to describe the dose response relationship. In particular, we re-analyze the MCP-Mod approach from Bretz et al. (2005), which has become a very popular tool for this problem in recent years. We propose an improvement based on likelihood ratio tests and prove that in linear models this approach is always at least as powerful as the MCP-Mod method. This result remains ...

  5. Social and Demographic Factors Associated with Morbidities in Young Children in Egypt: A Bayesian Geo-Additive Semi-Parametric Multinomial Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Khatab

    Full Text Available Globally, the burden of mortality in children, especially in poor developing countries, is alarming and has precipitated concern and calls for concerted efforts in combating such health problems. Examples of diseases that contribute to this burden of mortality include diarrhoea, cough, fever, and the overlap between these illnesses, causing childhood morbidity and mortality.To gain insight into these health issues, we employed the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey Data of Egypt, which recorded details from 10,872 children under five. This data focused on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. We applied a Bayesian multinomial model to assess the area-specific spatial effects and risk factors of co-morbidity of fever, diarrhoea and cough for children under the age of five.The results showed that children under 20 months of age were more likely to have the three diseases (OR: 6.8; 95% CI: 4.6-10.2 than children between 20 and 40 months (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.38-3.3. In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, the children of mothers who were over 20 years of age were more likely to have only cough (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.9-1.5 and only fever (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.91-1.51 compared with their counterparts. Spatial results showed that the North-eastern region of Egypt has a higher incidence than most of other regions.This study showed geographic patterns of Egyptian governorates in the combined prevalence of morbidity among Egyptian children. It is obvious that the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and south-eastern Egypt have high rates of diseases and are more affected. Therefore, more attention is needed in these areas.

  6. DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY: THEORY, METHODOLOGY, EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V. Karmanov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the theoretical aspects of demographic security. Reviewed and analyzed the point of view of various scholars to the definition of demographic security. The main directions of statistical analysis of demographic security.

  7. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  8. Temporal, spatial, and environmental influences on the demographics of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Charles C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; White, Gary C.; Harris, Richard B.; Cherry, Steve; Keating, Kim A.; Moody, Dave; Servheen, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded in range. Understanding temporal, environmental, and spatial variables responsible for this change is useful in evaluating what likely influenced grizzly bear demographics in the GYE and where future management efforts might benefit conservation and management. We used recent data from radio-marked bears to estimate reproduction (1983–2002) and survival (1983–2001); these we combined into models to evaluate demographic vigor (lambda [λ]). We explored the influence of an array of individual, temporal, and spatial covariates on demographic vigor.

  9. Testing Linear Models for Ability Parameters in Item Response Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cees A.W.; Hendrawan, Irene

    2005-01-01

    Methods for testing hypotheses concerning the regression parameters in linear models for the latent person parameters in item response models are presented. Three tests are outlined: A likelihood ratio test, a Lagrange multiplier test and a Wald test. The tests are derived in a marginal maximum like

  10. Modeling Stimuli-Responsive Nanoparticle Monolayer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Xin

    2015-03-01

    Using dissipative particle dynamics (DPD), we model a monolayer formed at the water-oil interface, which comprises stimuli-responsive nanoparticles. The solid core of the nanoparticle encompasses beads arranged in an fcc lattice structure and its surface is uniformly grafted with stimuli-responsive polymer chains. The surface-active nanoparticles adsorb to the interface from the suspension to minimize total energy of the system and create a monolayer covering the interface. We investigate the monolayer formation by characterizing the detailed adsorption kinetics. We explore the microstructure of the monolayer at different surface coverage, including the particle crowding and ordering, and elucidate the response of monolayer to external stimuli. The collective behavior of the particles within the monolayer is demonstrated quantitatively by vector-vector autocorrelation functions. This study provides a fundamental understanding of the interfacial behavior of stimuli-responsive nanoparticles.

  11. Demographic changes and nationalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishnevskii, A G

    1995-01-01

    This article examines the different characteristics of the many peoples inhabiting what used to be the Soviet Union and communist Eastern Europe, including Yugoslavia. The differences among these nationalities, or ethnic groups, are illustrated using the example of demographic modernization, showing how different peoples have or have not passed through the demographic transition process. The author looks at ethnic differences in mortality, fertility, natural increase, and migration, as well as economic and social inequalities among ethnic groups. The prospects for inter-ethnic conflict are assessed.

  12. Modeling the mechanical response of PBX 9501

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ragaswamy, Partha [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lewis, Matthew W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liu, Cheng [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Thompson, Darla G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    An engineering overview of the mechanical response of Plastic-Bonded eXplosives (PBXs), specifically PBX 9501, will be provided with emphasis on observed mechanisms associated with different types of mechanical testing. Mechanical tests in the form of uniaxial tension, compression, cyclic loading, creep (compression and tension), and Hopkinson bar show strain rate and temperature dependence. A range of mechanical behavior is observed which includes small strain recoverable response in the form of viscoelasticity; change in stiffness and softening beyond peak strength due to damage in the form microcracks, debonding, void formation and the growth of existing voids; inelastic response in the form of irrecoverable strain as shown in cyclic tests, and viscoelastic creep combined with plastic response as demonstrated in creep and recovery tests. The main focus of this paper is to elucidate the challenges and issues involved in modeling the mechanical behavior of PBXs for simulating thermo-mechanical responses in engineering components. Examples of validation of a constitutive material model based on a few of the observed mechanisms will be demonstrated against three point bending, split Hopkinson pressure bar and Brazilian disk geometry.

  13. Psychological and demographic correlates of early academic skill development among American Indian and Alaska Native youth: a growth modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Amy Kerivan; Coll, Cynthia García

    2007-05-01

    Research regarding the development of early academic skills among American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) students has been very limited to date. Using a nationally representative sample of AIAN, Hispanic, African American, and White children at school entry, the authors used latent growth models to estimate the associations among poverty, low parental education, living in a rural location, as well as child attitudes toward learning and internalizing/externalizing behaviors, with mathematical and reading cognitive skill development across the 1st 4 years of school. Results indicate that AIAN children entered kindergarten with scores on both mathematical and reading cognitive tests that were comparable to their peers from other ethnic groups of color. Importantly, all children who entered kindergarten with lower cognitive skill scores also acquired skills more slowly over the next 4 years. Having a positive approach to learning at the start of kindergarten was associated with cognitive skill levels at school entry nearly 1 standard deviation above the population average. Results are discussed with reference to the shared early educational profiles observed between AIAN and other children of color. These findings provide a much-needed update regarding early academic development among AIAN children. Copyright (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Demographic heterogeneity, cohort selection, and population growth

    OpenAIRE

    Bruce E. Kendall; Fox, Gordon A.; Fujiwara, Masami; Nogeire, Theresa M.

    2011-01-01

    Demographic heterogeneity—variation among individuals in survival and reproduction—is ubiquitous in natural populations. Structured population models address heterogeneity due to age, size, or major developmental stages. However, other important sources of demographic heterogeneity, such as genetic variation, spatial heterogeneity in the environment, maternal effects, and differential exposure to stressors, are often not easily measured and hence are modeled as stochasticity. Recent research ...

  15. Demographic Change and Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haustein, Sonja; Siren, Anu Kristiina; Framke, Elisabeth

    This report is the literature review on demographic changes and transport of Work Package 1 of the EU project CONSOL, “CONcerns and SOLutions – Road Safety in the Ageing Societies” (contract period: 2011-2013). The report is a state-of-the art report that combines current knowledge with new findi...

  16. Examination of the Two Models of Subjective Well-Being and Correlations between Satisfaction with Life, Demographic Variables and Personality Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Lučev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to further the understanding of complex processes that are the base for feelings and satisfaction judgments by examining two models of subjective well-being. 1048 participants rated satisfaction with life and filled out IPIP-50 questionnaire that measures personality traits of the Big five model and demographic data questionnaire. Satisfaction with life in general was statistically significantly positively correlated with satisfaction of relationships with other people, satisfaction with health as well as with specific aspects of these domains. As was expected according to judgment model, correlations were higher for global domains than for specific aspects of satisfaction except for satisfaction with mood. Hypothesis of general positivity model and judgment model were tested in a series of hierarchical regression analyses. General life satisfaction explained variance of both global domains above and beyond satisfaction with corresponding specific domains. Contribution of global life satisfaction was significant even after effect of big five personality traits was controlled. Personality traits of the Big five model were statistically significantly associated with general life satisfaction. Correlation coefficients were -0.41 for Neuroticism, 0.30 for Extraversion, 0.14 for Agreeableness, 0.13 for Conscientiousness and 0.22 for Intellect. Age, education and being in a relationship were positively correlated with general life satisfaction. In this connection younger, better educated persons and those being in relationship were more satisfied with life in general. Women had higher levels of satisfaction for relationship with parents, while men had higher levels of satisfaction with partner, mobility, energy level, immunity and absence of pain.

  17. Single toxin dose-response models revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaholt, SP; Kyker-Snowman, E; Shaw, JR; Chen, CY

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to offer a rigorous analysis of the sigmoid shape single toxin dose-response relationship. The toxin efficacy function is introduced and four special points, including maximum toxin efficacy and inflection points, on the dose-response curve are defined. The special points define three phases of the toxin effect on mortality: (1) toxin concentrations smaller than the first inflection point or (2) larger then the second inflection point imply low mortality rate, and (3) concentrations between the first and the second inflection points imply high mortality rate. Probabilistic interpretation and mathematical analysis for each of four models, Hill, logit, probit, and Weibull is provided. Two general model extensions are introduced: (1) the multi-target hit model that accounts for the existence of several vital receptors affected by the toxin, and (2) model with a nonzero mortality at zero concentration to account for natural mortality. Special attention is given to statistical estimation in the framework of the generalized linear model with the binomial dependent variable as the mortality count in each experiment, contrary to the widespread nonlinear regression treating the mortality rate as continuous variable. The models are illustrated using standard EPA Daphnia acute (48 hours) toxicity tests with mortality as a function of NiCl or CuSO4 toxin. PMID:27847315

  18. Response to climate risks among smallholder farmers in Malawi: A multivariate probit assessment of the role of information, household demographics, and farm characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chalmers Mulwa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Why do many smallholder farmers fail to adopt what appear to be relatively simple agronomic or management practices which can help them cope with climate-induced stressors? Using household and plot level data collected in 2011, we implement a multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of farmer adaptation behavior to climatic risks and the relative contribution of information, credit and education on the probability of adopting specific practices in response to adverse changes in weather patterns. We find that plot characteristics, credit constraints and availability of climate-related information explain the adoption of several of these practices. In relative terms, we also find that even when financial limitations are binding, making climate-related information available can still motivate farmers to adapt. Policy implications are that the deepening of extension access with information on the appropriate adaptation strategies is crucial to help farmers make adaptation choices. The need to foster credit markets for easy accessibility and affordability by farmers or otherwise strengthening access to assets is also important.

  19. Sensitivity of Footbridge Response to Load Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    The paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the actions of walking and has focus on the vibration serviceability limit state of footbridges. The use of a stochastic approach is novel but useful as it is more advanced than the quite simplistic deterministic load models seen in many desig...... matter to foresee their impact. The paper contributes by examining how some of these decisions influence the outcome of serviceability evaluations. The sensitivity study is made focusing on vertical footbridge response to single person loading....

  20. Sensitivity of Footbridge Response to Load Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2012-01-01

    The paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the actions of walking and has focus on the vibration serviceability limit state of footbridges. The use of a stochastic approach is novel but useful as it is more advanced than the quite simplistic deterministic load models seen in many design...... matter to foresee their impact. The paper contributes by examining how some of these decisions influence the outcome of serviceability evaluations. The sensitivity study is made focusing on vertical footbridge response to single person loading....

  1. Sensitivity of Footbridge Response to Load Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    The paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the actions of walking and has focus on the vibration serviceability limit state of footbridges. The use of a stochastic approach is novel but useful as it is more advanced than the quite simplistic deterministic load models seen in many design...... matter to foresee their impact. The paper contributes by examining how some of these decisions influence the outcome of serviceability evaluations. The sensitivity study is made focusing on vertical footbridge response to single person loading....

  2. Meth math: modeling temperature responses to methamphetamine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molkov, Yaroslav I; Zaretskaia, Maria V; Zaretsky, Dmitry V

    2014-04-15

    Methamphetamine (Meth) can evoke extreme hyperthermia, which correlates with neurotoxicity and death in laboratory animals and humans. The objective of this study was to uncover the mechanisms of a complex dose dependence of temperature responses to Meth by mathematical modeling of the neuronal circuitry. On the basis of previous studies, we composed an artificial neural network with the core comprising three sequentially connected nodes: excitatory, medullary, and sympathetic preganglionic neuronal (SPN). Meth directly stimulated the excitatory node, an inhibitory drive targeted the medullary node, and, in high doses, an additional excitatory drive affected the SPN node. All model parameters (weights of connections, sensitivities, and time constants) were subject to fitting experimental time series of temperature responses to 1, 3, 5, and 10 mg/kg Meth. Modeling suggested that the temperature response to the lowest dose of Meth, which caused an immediate and short hyperthermia, involves neuronal excitation at a supramedullary level. The delay in response after the intermediate doses of Meth is a result of neuronal inhibition at the medullary level. Finally, the rapid and robust increase in body temperature induced by the highest dose of Meth involves activation of high-dose excitatory drive. The impairment in the inhibitory mechanism can provoke a life-threatening temperature rise and makes it a plausible cause of fatal hyperthermia in Meth users. We expect that studying putative neuronal sites of Meth action and the neuromediators involved in a detailed model of this system may lead to more effective strategies for prevention and treatment of hyperthermia induced by amphetamine-like stimulants.

  3. Stochastic Load Models and Footbridge Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Pedestrians may cause vibrations in footbridges and these vibrations may potentially be annoying. This calls for predictions of footbridge vibration levels and the paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians assuming walking parameters such as step frequency...... the footbridge and when describing the action of the pedestrians (such as for instance the number of load harmonics). Focus is on estimating vertical structural response to single person loading....

  4. Tidal Response of Preliminary Jupiter Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wahl, Sean M; Hubbard, Willam B.; Militzer, Burkhard

    2016-01-01

    In anticipation of improved observational data for Jupiter's gravitational field from the Juno spacecraft, we predict the static tidal response for a variety of Jupiter interior models based on ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen-helium mixtures. We calculate hydrostatic-equilibrium gravity terms using the non-perturbative concentric Maclaurin Spheroid (CMS) method that eliminates lengthy expansions used in the theory of figures. Our method captures terms arising from the coupled tidal...

  5. Modeling listeners' emotional response to music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eerola, Tuomas

    2012-10-01

    An overview of the computational prediction of emotional responses to music is presented. Communication of emotions by music has received a great deal of attention during the last years and a large number of empirical studies have described the role of individual features (tempo, mode, articulation, timbre) in predicting the emotions suggested or invoked by the music. However, unlike the present work, relatively few studies have attempted to model continua of expressed emotions using a variety of musical features from audio-based representations in a correlation design. The construction of the computational model is divided into four separate phases, with a different focus for evaluation. These phases include the theoretical selection of relevant features, empirical assessment of feature validity, actual feature selection, and overall evaluation of the model. Existing research on music and emotions and extraction of musical features is reviewed in terms of these criteria. Examples drawn from recent studies of emotions within the context of film soundtracks are used to demonstrate each phase in the construction of the model. These models are able to explain the dominant part of the listeners' self-reports of the emotions expressed by music and the models show potential to generalize over different genres within Western music. Possible applications of the computational models of emotions are discussed.

  6. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...

  7. Frequency response function-based model updating using Kriging model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J. T.; Wang, C. J.; Zhao, J. P.

    2017-03-01

    An acceleration frequency response function (FRF) based model updating method is presented in this paper, which introduces Kriging model as metamodel into the optimization process instead of iterating the finite element analysis directly. The Kriging model is taken as a fast running model that can reduce solving time and facilitate the application of intelligent algorithms in model updating. The training samples for Kriging model are generated by the design of experiment (DOE), whose response corresponds to the difference between experimental acceleration FRFs and its counterpart of finite element model (FEM) at selected frequency points. The boundary condition is taken into account, and a two-step DOE method is proposed for reducing the number of training samples. The first step is to select the design variables from the boundary condition, and the selected variables will be passed to the second step for generating the training samples. The optimization results of the design variables are taken as the updated values of the design variables to calibrate the FEM, and then the analytical FRFs tend to coincide with the experimental FRFs. The proposed method is performed successfully on a composite structure of honeycomb sandwich beam, after model updating, the analytical acceleration FRFs have a significant improvement to match the experimental data especially when the damping ratios are adjusted.

  8. Ballistic Response of Fabrics: Model and Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orphal, Dennis L.; Walker Anderson, James D., Jr.

    2001-06-01

    Walker (1999)developed an analytical model for the dynamic response of fabrics to ballistic impact. From this model the force, F, applied to the projectile by the fabric is derived to be F = 8/9 (ET*)h^3/R^2, where E is the Young's modulus of the fabric, T* is the "effective thickness" of the fabric and equal to the ratio of the areal density of the fabric to the fiber density, h is the displacement of the fabric on the axis of impact and R is the radius of the fabric deformation or "bulge". Ballistic tests against Zylon^TM fabric have been performed to measure h and R as a function of time. The results of these experiments are presented and analyzed in the context of the Walker model. Walker (1999), Proceedings of the 18th International Symposium on Ballistics, pp. 1231.

  9. A Holographic Model For Quantum Critical Responses

    CERN Document Server

    Myers, Robert C; Witczak-Krempa, William

    2016-01-01

    We analyze the dynamical response functions of strongly interacting quantum critical states described by conformal field theories (CFTs). We construct a self-consistent holographic model that incorporates the relevant scalar operator driving the quantum critical phase transition. Focusing on the finite temperature dynamical conductivity $\\sigma(\\omega,T)$, we study its dependence on our model parameters, notably the scaling dimension of the relevant operator. It is found that the conductivity is well-approximated by a simple ansatz proposed by Katz et al [1] for a wide range of parameters. We further dissect the conductivity at large frequencies $\\omega >> T$ using the operator product expansion, and show how it reveals the spectrum of our model CFT. Our results provide a physically-constrained framework to study the analytic continuation of quantum Monte Carlo data, as we illustrate using the O(2) Wilson-Fisher CFT. Finally, we comment on the variation of the conductivity as we tune away from the quantum cri...

  10. Tidal Response of Preliminary Jupiter Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Sean M.; Hubbard, William B.; Militzer, Burkhard

    2016-11-01

    In anticipation of improved observational data for Jupiter’s gravitational field, from the Juno spacecraft, we predict the static tidal response for a variety of Jupiter interior models based on ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen-helium mixtures. We calculate hydrostatic-equilibrium gravity terms, using the non-perturbative concentric Maclaurin Spheroid method that eliminates lengthy expansions used in the theory of figures. Our method captures terms arising from the coupled tidal and rotational perturbations, which we find to be important for a rapidly rotating planet like Jupiter. Our predicted static tidal Love number, {k}2=0.5900, is ˜10% larger than previous estimates. The value is, as expected, highly correlated with the zonal harmonic coefficient J 2, and is thus nearly constant when plausible changes are made to the interior structure while holding J 2 fixed at the observed value. We note that the predicted static k 2 might change, due to Jupiter’s dynamical response to the Galilean moons, and find reasons to argue that the change may be detectable—although we do not present here a theory of dynamical tides for highly oblate Jovian planets. An accurate model of Jupiter’s tidal response will be essential for interpreting Juno observations and identifying tidal signals from effects of other interior dynamics of Jupiter’s gravitational field.

  11. Cause of death during 2009–2012, using a probabilistic model (InterVA-4: an experience from Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay K. Rai

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The present study aimed to estimate the age and cause-specific mortality in Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS site for the years 2009 to 2012, using a probabilistic model (InterVA-4. Methods: All Deaths in Ballabgarh HDSS from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2012, were included in the study. InterVA-4 model (version 4.02 was used for assigning cause of death (COD. Data from the verbal autopsy (VA tool were extracted and processed with the InterVA-4 model. Cause-specific mortality rate (CSMR per 1,000 person-years was calculated. Results: A total of 2,459 deaths occurred in the HDSS during the year 2009 to 2012. Among them, 2,174 (88.4% valid VA interviews were conducted. Crude death rate ranged from 7.1 (2009 to 6.4 (2012 per 1,000 population. The CSMR per 1,000 person-years over the years (2009–2012 for non-communicable diseases, communicable diseases, trauma, neoplasm, and maternal and neonatal diseases were 1.78, 1.68, 0.68, 0.49, and 0.48, respectively. The most common causes of death among children, adults, and the elderly were infectious diseases, trauma, and non-communicable diseases, respectively. Conclusions: Overall, non-communicable diseases constituted the largest proportion of mortality, whereas trauma was the most common COD among adults at Ballabgarh HDSS. Policy-makers ought to focus on prevention of premature CODs, especially prevention of infectious diseases in children, and intentional self-harm and road traffic accidents in the adult population.

  12. Tidal Response of Preliminary Jupiter Model

    CERN Document Server

    Wahl, Sean M; Militzer, Burkhard

    2016-01-01

    In anticipation of improved observational data for Jupiter's gravitational field from the Juno spacecraft, we predict the static tidal response for a variety of Jupiter interior models based on ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen-helium mixtures. We calculate hydrostatic-equilibrium gravity terms using the non-perturbative concentric Maclaurin Spheroid (CMS) method that eliminates lengthy expansions used in the theory of figures. Our method captures terms arising from the coupled tidal and rotational perturbations, which we find to be important for a rapidly-rotating planet like Jupiter. Our predicted static tidal Love number $k_2 = 0.5900$ is $\\sim$10\\% larger than previous estimates. The value is, as expected, highly correlated with the zonal harmonic coefficient $J_2$, and is thus nearly constant when plausible changes are made to interior structure while holding $J_2$ fixed at the observed value. We note that the predicted static $k_2$ might change due to Jupiter's dynamical response to the Galilea...

  13. The professional responsibility model of physician leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chervenak, Frank A; McCullough, Laurence B; Brent, Robert L

    2013-02-01

    The challenges physician leaders confront today call to mind Odysseus' challenge to steer his fragile ship successfully between Scylla and Charybdis. The modern Scylla takes the form of ever-increasing pressures to provide more resources for professional liability, compliance, patient satisfaction, central administration, and a host of other demands. The modern Charybdis takes the form of ever-increasing pressures to procure resources when fewer are available and competition is continuously increasing the need for resources, including managed care, hospital administration, payers, employers, patients who are uninsured or underinsured, research funding, and philanthropy. This publication provides physician leaders with guidance for identifying and managing common leadership challenges on the basis of the professional responsibility model of physician leadership. This model is based on Plato's concept of leadership as a life of service and the professional medical ethics of Drs John Gregory and Thomas Percival. Four professional virtues should guide physician leaders: self-effacement, self-sacrifice, compassion, and integrity. These professional virtues direct physician leaders to treat colleagues as ends in themselves, to provide justice-based resource management, to use power constrained by medical professionalism, and to prevent and respond effectively to organizational dysfunction. The professional responsibility model guides physician leaders by proving an explicit "tool kit" to complement managerial skills. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Modeling of Cardiovascular Response to Weightlessness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, M. Keith

    1999-01-01

    pressure and, to a limited extent, in extravascular and pedcardial hydrostatic pressure were investigated. A complete hydraulic model of the cardiovascular system was built and flown aboard the NASA KC-135 and a computer model was developed and tested in simulated microgravity. Results obtained with these models have confirmed that a simple lack of hydrostatic pressure within an artificial ventricle causes a decrease in stroke volume. When combined with the acute increase in ventricular pressure associated with the elimination of hydrostatic pressure within the vasculature and the resultant cephalad fluid shift with the models in the upright position, however, stroke volume increased in the models. Imposition of a decreased pedcardial pressure in the computer model and in a simplified hydraulic model increased stroke volume. Physiologic regional fluid shifting was also demonstrated by the models. The unifying parameter characterizing of cardiac response was diastolic ventricular transmural pressure (DVDELTAP) The elimination of intraventricular hydrostatic pressure in O-G decreased DVDELTAP stroke volume, while the elimination of intravascular hydrostatic pressure increased DVDELTAP and stroke volume in the upright posture, but reduced DVDELTAP and stroke volume in the launch posture. The release of gravity on the chest wall and its associated influence on intrathoracic pressure, simulated by a drop in extraventricular pressure4, increased DVDELTAP ans stroke volume.

  15. Building demographic literacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crews, K

    1993-01-01

    Students should get in the habit of seeking out the most current projections, estimates, or rates available. Since demographic measures change over time, publications based on the UN's world population projections from 1980 or 1990 may need to be supplemented using the UN's most current, 1992, projections. A 1989 Census Bureau report on the African American Population will not contain data from the 1990 Census or the 1992 Current Population Survey, conducted by the Census Bureau. Some groups collect data with advocacy in mind, as shown by the range of estimates of participants at the 1993 National March on Washington for Lesbian, Gay and Bi Equal Rights and Liberation. The organizers estimated that 1 million people participated; the US Park Police estimated 300,000; and the Washington Blade, a gay newspaper, reported 750,000. A seemingly innocuous choice of phrasing can change the meaning of demographic data. One commonly misreported concept is population doubling time which is not a prediction, but rather a concept designed to accent how fast a population is growing at the present time. At current rates, the population of India would double in size in 34 years, but it is more likely that growth rates will begin to slow down somewhat during that time. Older students may be encouraged to examine the assumptions behind population projections. The UN's long-range projection that world population will grow to 10 billion by 2050 is based on certain assumption about fertility and mortality during the period. With regard to the fastest growing US minority, Hispanics added the largest number of people to the US population during the 1980s, but Asians had the largest percent increase. The time to initiate demographic literacy is in the early grades of school.

  16. Ovine model for studying pulmonary immune responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joel, D.D.; Chanana, A.D.

    1984-11-25

    Anatomical features of the sheep lung make it an excellent model for studying pulmonary immunity. Four specific lung segments were identified which drain exclusively to three separate lymph nodes. One of these segments, the dorsal basal segment of the right lung, is drained by the caudal mediastinal lymph node (CMLN). Cannulation of the efferent lymph duct of the CMLN along with highly localized intrabronchial instillation of antigen provides a functional unit with which to study factors involved in development of pulmonary immune responses. Following intrabronchial immunization there was an increased output of lymphoblasts and specific antibody-forming cells in efferent CMLN lymph. Continuous divergence of efferent lymph eliminated the serum antibody response but did not totally eliminate the appearance of specific antibody in fluid obtained by bronchoalveolar lavage. In these studies localized immunization of the right cranial lobe served as a control. Efferent lymphoblasts produced in response to intrabronchial antigen were labeled with /sup 125/I-iododeoxyuridine and their migrational patterns and tissue distribution compared to lymphoblasts obtained from the thoracic duct. The results indicated that pulmonary immunoblasts tend to relocate in lung tissue and reappear with a higher specific activity in pulmonary lymph than in thoracic duct lymph. The reverse was observed with labeled intestinal lymphoblasts. 35 references, 2 figures, 3 tables.

  17. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Olsen, Daniel J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Matson, Nance [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rose, Cody [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goli, Sasank [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ma, Ookie [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of a series stemming from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study. This study is a multi-national-laboratory effort to assess the potential value of demand response (DR) and energy storage to electricity systems with different penetration levels of variable renewable resources and to improve our understanding of associatedmarkets and institutions. This report implements DR resources in the commercial production cost model PLEXOS.

  18. EJSCREEN Version 1, Demographic Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map service displays demographic data used in EJSCREEN. All demographic data were derived from American Community Survey 2006-2010 estimates. EJSCREEN is an...

  19. Demographic profile, host, disease & viral predictive factors of response in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection at a tertiary care hospital in north India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sreejith Vasudevan

    2016-01-01

    Interpretation & conclusions: Genotype 3 was the commonest HCV genotype. The commonest source of infection was previous transfusion and surgery. SVR rates for genotypes 3 were better than genotype 1 patients. Predictors of non-response were high BMI, insulin resistance, significant fibrosis and inadequate compliance.

  20. Bioadhesion to model thermally responsive surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrzejewski, Brett Paul

    This dissertation focuses on the characterization of two surfaces: mixed self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) of hexa(ethylene glycol) and alkyl thiolates (mixed SAM) and poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAAm). The synthesis of hexa(ethylene gylcol) alkyl thiol (C11EG 6OH) is presented along with the mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance results. The gold substrates were imaged prior to SAM formation with atomic force micrscopy (AFM). Average surface roughness of the gold substrate was 0.44 nm, 0.67 nm, 1.65 nm for 15, 25 and 60 nm gold thickness, respectively. The height of the mixed SAM was measured by ellipsometry and varied from 13 to 28°A depending on surface mole fraction of C11EG6OH. The surface mole fraction of C11EG6OH for the mixed SAM was determined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) with optimal thermal responsive behavior in the range of 0.4 to 0.6. The mixed SAM surface was confirmed to be thermally responsive by contact angle goniometry, 35° at 28°C and ˜55° at 40°C. In addition, the mixed SAM surfaces were confirmed to be thermally responsive for various aqueous mediums by tensiometry. Factors such as oxygen, age, and surface mole fraction and how they affect the thermal responsive of the mixed SAM are discussed. Lastly, rat fibroblasts were grown on the mixed SAM and imaged by phase contrast microscopy to show inhibition of attachment at temperatures below the molecular transition. Qualitative and quantitative measurements of the fibroblast adhesion data are provided that support the hypothesis of the mixed SAM exhibits a dominantly non-fouling molecular conformation at 25°C whereas it exhibits a dominantly fouling molecular conformation at 40°C. The adhesion of six model proteins: bovine serum albumin, collagen, pyruvate kinase, cholera toxin subunit B, ribonuclease, and lysozyme to the model thermally responsive mixed SAM were examined using AFM. All six proteins possessed adhesion to the pure component alkyl thiol, in

  1. A generalized item response tree model for psychological assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Minjeong; De Boeck, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A new item response theory (IRT) model with a tree structure has been introduced for modeling item response processes with a tree structure. In this paper, we present a generalized item response tree model with a flexible parametric form, dimensionality, and choice of covariates. The utilities of the model are demonstrated with two applications in psychological assessments for investigating Likert scale item responses and for modeling omitted item responses. The proposed model is estimated with the freely available R package flirt (Jeon et al., 2014b).

  2. Demographic trends in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available In the present note, we present the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. For this purpose, published indices of marriage, divorce, and childbearing risks by calendar year are updated by adding another two or three years of observation to our series. We demonstrate that the latest trend reversal in Swedish birth rates, which occurred at the end of the 1990s, continued to manifest itself in increasing propensities for childbearing during the early years of the 21st century. The rise pertains to all birth orders. Marriage propensities showed an increase as well, however, to a large extent expressed in a short-term development that was prevalent at the turn of the millennium. The previous long-term trend of rising divorce risks leveled off during the first two years of the new century.

  3. Stochastic Approximation Methods for Latent Regression Item Response Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Davier, Matthias; Sinharay, Sandip

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an application of a stochastic approximation expectation maximization (EM) algorithm using a Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler to estimate the parameters of an item response latent regression model. Latent regression item response models are extensions of item response theory (IRT) to a latent variable model with covariates…

  4. A lognormal model for response times on test items

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    2006-01-01

    A lognormal model for the response times of a person on a set of test items is investigated. The model has a parameter structure analogous to the two-parameter logistic response models in item response theory, with a parameter for the speed of each person as well as parameters for the time intensity

  5. Tidally Heated Terrestrial Exoplanets: Viscoelastic Response Models

    CERN Document Server

    Henning, Wade G; Sasselov, Dimitar D; 10.1088/0004-637X/707/2/1000

    2009-01-01

    Tidal friction in exoplanet systems, driven by orbits that allow for durable nonzero eccentricities at short heliocentric periods, can generate internal heating far in excess of the conditions observed in our own solar system. Secular perturbations or a notional 2:1 resonance between a Hot Earth and Hot Jupiter can be used as a baseline to consider the thermal evolution of convecting bodies subject to strong viscoelastic tidal heating. We compare results first from simple models using a fixed Quality factor and Love number, and then for three different viscoelastic rheologies: the Maxwell body, the Standard Anelastic Solid, and the Burgers body. The SAS and Burgers models are shown to alter the potential for extreme tidal heating by introducing the possibility of new equilibria and multiple response peaks. We find that tidal heating tends to exceed radionuclide heating at periods below 10-30 days, and exceed insolation only below 1-2 days. Extreme cases produce enough tidal heat to initiate global-scale parti...

  6. MULTIVARIATE VARYING COEFFICIENT MODEL FOR FUNCTIONAL RESPONSES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Li, Runze; Kong, Linglong

    2012-10-01

    Motivated by recent work studying massive imaging data in the neuroimaging literature, we propose multivariate varying coefficient models (MVCM) for modeling the relation between multiple functional responses and a set of covariates. We develop several statistical inference procedures for MVCM and systematically study their theoretical properties. We first establish the weak convergence of the local linear estimate of coefficient functions, as well as its asymptotic bias and variance, and then we derive asymptotic bias and mean integrated squared error of smoothed individual functions and their uniform convergence rate. We establish the uniform convergence rate of the estimated covariance function of the individual functions and its associated eigenvalue and eigenfunctions. We propose a global test for linear hypotheses of varying coefficient functions, and derive its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis. We also propose a simultaneous confidence band for each individual effect curve. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. We apply MVCM to investigate the development of white matter diffusivities along the genu tract of the corpus callosum in a clinical study of neurodevelopment.

  7. Demographic Differences in Organizational Commitment to the University of College of Business Administration Students: An Application of the Allen and Meyer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Kevin G.

    2013-01-01

    Organizational commitment of undergraduate college students to the university was measured by modifying an established measure and demographic differences were examined. Affective, continuance, and normative commitment facets were assessed. No differences based upon gender, race, and GPA were found. Length of time at the university and transfer…

  8. Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control

    OpenAIRE

    Ferrari, M. J.; Grenfell, B. T.; Strebel, P. M.

    2013-01-01

    The global reduction of the burden of morbidity and mortality owing to measles has been a major triumph of public health. However, the continued persistence of measles infection probably not only reflects local variation in progress towards vaccination target goals, but may also reflect local variation in dynamic processes of transmission, susceptible replenishment through births and stochastic local extinction. Dynamic models predict that vaccination should increase the mean age of infection...

  9. Classification of scalar and dyadic nonlocal optical response models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wubs, M

    2015-11-30

    Nonlocal optical response is one of the emerging effects on the nanoscale for particles made of metals or doped semiconductors. Here we classify and compare both scalar and tensorial nonlocal response models. In the latter case the nonlocality can stem from either the longitudinal response, the transverse response, or both. In phenomenological scalar models the nonlocal response is described as a smearing out of the commonly assumed infinitely localized response, as characterized by a distribution with a finite width. Here we calculate explicitly whether and how tensorial models, such as the hydrodynamic Drude model and generalized nonlocal optical response theory, follow this phenomenological description. We find considerable differences, for example that nonlocal response functions, in contrast to simple distributions, assume negative and complex values. Moreover, nonlocal response regularizes some but not all diverging optical near fields. We identify the scalar model that comes closest to the hydrodynamic model. Interestingly, for the hydrodynamic Drude model we find that actually only one third (1/3) of the free-electron response is smeared out nonlocally. In that sense, nonlocal response is stronger for transverse and scalar nonlocal response models, where the smeared-out fractions are 2/3 and 3/3, respectively. The latter two models seem to predict novel plasmonic resonances also below the plasma frequency, in contrast to the hydrodynamic model that predicts standing pressure waves only above the plasma frequency.

  10. [Special Issue on SEA Demographics] Response - Language Policy: Using the American Community Survey to Investigate Bilingualism and Biliteracy among Immigrant Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerda de Klerk

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a response to Mark Pfeifers Cambodian, Hmong, Lao and Vietnamese Americans in the 2005 American Community Survey and elaborates on the utility of the American Community Survey (ACS for studying immigrant groups in the United States of America, and also compares the ACS to the U.S. Census. Neither the Census nor ACS questionnaire is structured to capture the language and literacy skills of immigrant communities in as far as these surveys only collect information about respondents oral language abilities, with a focus on English fluency. Direct, self-reported, and surrogate measures of literacy are discussed, with a proposal to use education level as surrogate for literacy. Using the Vietnamese subpopulation in the ACS, examples are presented of ways to construct composite variables from the ACS raw microdata, to measure respondents bilingualism and biliteracy. When such new variables are used in analysis of immigrant communities, a more complex multilingual picture emerges than is presented normally in Census and ACS data products available to the public.

  11. [Special Issue on SEA Demographics] Response - Language Policy: Using the American Community Survey to Investigate Bilingualism and Biliteracy among Immigrant Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerda de Klerk

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a response to Mark Pfeifer’s Cambodian, Hmong, Lao and Vietnamese Americans in the 2005 American Community Survey and elaborates on the utility of the American Community Survey (ACS for studying immigrant groups in the United States of America, and also compares the ACS to the U.S. Census. Neither the Census nor ACS questionnaire is structured to capture the language and literacy skills of immigrant communities in as far as these surveys only collect information about respondents’ oral language abilities, with a focus on English fluency. Direct, self-reported, and surrogate measures of literacy are discussed, with a proposal to use education level as surrogate for literacy. Using the Vietnamese subpopulation in the ACS, examples are presented of ways to construct composite variables from the ACS raw microdata, to measure respondents’ bilingualism and biliteracy. When such new variables are used in analysis of immigrant communities, a more complex multilingual picture emerges than is presented normally in Census and ACS data products available to the public.

  12. Modeling mechanical response of heterogeneous materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Siladitya

    Heterogeneous materials are ubiquitous in nature and as synthetic materials. These materials provide unique combination of desirable mechanical properties emerging from its heterogeneities at different length scales. Future structural and technological applications will require the development of advanced light weight materials with superior strength and toughness. Cost effective design of the advanced high performance synthetic materials by tailoring their microstructure is the challenge facing the materials design community. Prior knowledge of structure-property relationships for these materials is imperative for optimal design. Thus, understanding such relationships for heterogeneous materials is of primary interest. Furthermore, computational burden is becoming critical concern in several areas of heterogeneous materials design. Therefore, computationally efficient and accurate predictive tools are highly essential. In the present study, we mainly focus on mechanical behavior of soft cellular materials and tough biological material such as mussel byssus thread. Cellular materials exhibit microstructural heterogeneity by interconnected network of same material phase. However, mussel byssus thread comprises of two distinct material phases. A robust numerical framework is developed to investigate the micromechanisms behind the macroscopic response of both of these materials. Using this framework, effect of microstuctural parameters has been addressed on the stress state of cellular specimens during split Hopkinson pressure bar test. A voronoi tessellation based algorithm has been developed to simulate the cellular microstructure. Micromechanisms (microinertia, microbuckling and microbending) governing macroscopic behavior of cellular solids are investigated thoroughly with respect to various microstructural and loading parameters. To understand the origin of high toughness of mussel byssus thread, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization framework has been

  13. Exposure-response modeling methods and practical implementation

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Jixian

    2015-01-01

    Discover the Latest Statistical Approaches for Modeling Exposure-Response RelationshipsWritten by an applied statistician with extensive practical experience in drug development, Exposure-Response Modeling: Methods and Practical Implementation explores a wide range of topics in exposure-response modeling, from traditional pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling to other areas in drug development and beyond. It incorporates numerous examples and software programs for implementing novel methods.The book describes using measurement

  14. [Demographic profile of Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, I

    1984-04-01

    Sources of demographic data for Venezuela include 11 population censuses conducted between 1873-1981, birth and death registration statistics, and the household sample survey. The average annual rate of population growth increase from 2.8% between 1920-40 to 3-4% thereafter. The population at the 1961 census was 7.52 million. According to preliminary data from the 1981 census, the population of 14.57 million is growing at an annual rate of 2.8%. 41.2% of the population is under 15 years old, implying a huge demand for educational and health services, housing and employment. The dependency rate in 1980 was 81.3% for the country as a whole, 100.4% in rural areas, and 76.0% in urban areas. The young age structure means that the population will continue to grow even if natality rates decline. The crude natality rate was estimated at 47.3/1000 for 1950-55, 36.0 for 1970-75, and 32.9 for 1980-85. Some rural areas still have natality rates of over 47/1000. The total fertility rate declined from 6.5 in 1950-55 to 4.1 in 1980-85. The decline in the natality rate reflects improving quality of life, availability of family planning services, urbanization, and access of women to productive activities and educational centers. The mortality rate was 12.3/1000 in 1950-55, 9.1 in 1960-65, in 1970-75, and has been estimated at 5.5 for 1980-85. Some rural areas have mortality rates of 8.1. The infant mortality rate was 50.2/1000 in 1971 and 34.3 in 1980. Life expectancy at birth is about 69 years. During the 1920s, Venezuela unerwent expansion in infrastructure and technological utilization, generating rapid urbanization. 39.2% of the population was urban in 1941, compared to 78.8% in 1980. The significance of urbanization in Venezuela is due to the rapidity as well as the diffusion of the process. The household sample survey for the 2nd half of 1980 indicated a total of 8.16 million employed and an activity rate of 32.1% overall, 46.4% for males and 17.7% for females. The

  15. Improving Item Response Theory Model Calibration by Considering Response Times in Psychological Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jorg-Tobias

    2012-01-01

    Research findings indicate that response times in personality scales are related to the trait level according to the so-called speed-distance hypothesis. Against this background, Ferrando and Lorenzo-Seva proposed a latent trait model for the responses and response times in a test. The model consists of two components, a standard item response…

  16. The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijdra, B.J.; Ligthart, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes.It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both p

  17. Multidimensional Vector Model of Stimulus-Response Compatibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Motonori; Proctor, Robert W.

    2012-01-01

    The present study proposes and examines the multidimensional vector (MDV) model framework as a modeling schema for choice response times. MDV extends the Thurstonian model, as well as signal detection theory, to classification tasks by taking into account the influence of response properties on stimulus discrimination. It is capable of accounting…

  18. The Gradual Increase of Responsibility Model: Coaching for Teacher Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Vicki S.

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the gradual increase of responsibility (GIR) model for teacher coaching (Collet, 2008), an adaptation of Pearson and Gallagher's (1983) Gradual Release of Responsibility model. In GIR, instructional coaches model, make recommendations, ask probing questions, affirm teachers' appropriate decisions, and praise in order to provide…

  19. Women's Endorsement of Models of Sexual Response: Correlates and Predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowosielski, Krzysztof; Wróbel, Beata; Kowalczyk, Robert

    2016-02-01

    Few studies have investigated endorsement of female sexual response models, and no single model has been accepted as a normative description of women's sexual response. The aim of the study was to establish how women from a population-based sample endorse current theoretical models of the female sexual response--the linear models and circular model (partial and composite Basson models)--as well as predictors of endorsement. Accordingly, 174 heterosexual women aged 18-55 years were included in a cross-sectional study: 74 women diagnosed with female sexual dysfunction (FSD) based on DSM-5 criteria and 100 non-dysfunctional women. The description of sexual response models was used to divide subjects into four subgroups: linear (Masters-Johnson and Kaplan models), circular (partial Basson model), mixed (linear and circular models in similar proportions, reflective of the composite Basson model), and a different model. Women were asked to choose which of the models best described their pattern of sexual response and how frequently they engaged in each model. Results showed that 28.7% of women endorsed the linear models, 19.5% the partial Basson model, 40.8% the composite Basson model, and 10.9% a different model. Women with FSD endorsed the partial Basson model and a different model more frequently than did non-dysfunctional controls. Individuals who were dissatisfied with a partner as a lover were more likely to endorse a different model. Based on the results, we concluded that the majority of women endorsed a mixed model combining the circular response with the possibility of an innate desire triggering a linear response. Further, relationship difficulties, not FSD, predicted model endorsement.

  20. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

    2010-01-01

    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  1. Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory for the Three-Parameter Logistic Item Response Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Carol M.

    2008-01-01

    In Ramsay-curve item response theory (RC-IRT), the latent variable distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters of a unidimensional item response model using marginal maximum likelihood estimation. This study evaluates RC-IRT for the three-parameter logistic (3PL) model with comparisons to the normal model and to the empirical…

  2. Evaluation of the Acceptance of Audience Response System by Corporations Using the Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Hsing-Hui; Lu, Ta-Jung; Wann, Jong-Wen

    The purpose of this research is to explore enterprises' acceptance of Audience Response System (ARS) using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The findings show that (1) IT characteristics and facilitating conditions could be external variables of TAM. (2) The degree of E-business has positive significant correlation with behavioral intention of employees. (3) TAM is a good model to predict and explain IT acceptance. (4) Demographic variables, industry and firm characteristics have no significant correlation with ARS acceptance. The results provide useful information to managers and ARS providers that (1) ARS providers should focus more on creating different usages to enhance interactivity and employees' using intention. (2) Managers should pay attention to build sound internal facilitating conditions for introducing IT. (3) According to the degree of E-business, managers should set up strategic stages of introducing IT. (4) Providers should increase product promotion and also leverage academic and government to promote ARS.

  3. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  4. Model Averaging Software for Dichotomous Dose Response Risk Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W. Wheeler

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Model averaging has been shown to be a useful method for incorporating model uncertainty in quantitative risk estimation. In certain circumstances this technique is computationally complex, requiring sophisticated software to carry out the computation. We introduce software that implements model averaging for risk assessment based upon dichotomous dose-response data. This software, which we call Model Averaging for Dichotomous Response Benchmark Dose (MADr-BMD, fits the quantal response models, which are also used in the US Environmental Protection Agency benchmark dose software suite, and generates a model-averaged dose response model to generate benchmark dose and benchmark dose lower bound estimates. The software fulfills a need for risk assessors, allowing them to go beyond one single model in their risk assessments based on quantal data by focusing on a set of models that describes the experimental data.

  5. A Data Mining-Based Response Model for Target Selection in Direct Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eniafe Festus Ayetiran

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Identifying customers who are more likely to respond to new product offers is an important issue in direct marketing. In direct marketing, data mining has been used extensively to identify potential customers for a new product (target selection. Using historical purchase data, a predictive response model with data mining techniques was developed to predict a probability that a customer in Ebedi Microfinance bank will respond to a promotion or an offer. To achieve this purpose, a predictive response model using customers’ historical purchase data was built with data mining techniques. The data were stored in a data warehouse to serve as management decision support system. The response model was built from customers’ historic purchases and demographic dataset.Bayesian algorithm precisely Naïve Bayes algorithm was employed in constructing the classifier system. Both filter and wrapper feature selection techniques were employed in determining inputs to the model.The results obtained shows that Ebedi Microfinance bank can plan effective marketing of their products and services by obtaining a guiding report on the status of their customers which will go a long way in assisting management in saving significant amount of money that could have been spent on wasteful promotional campaigns.

  6. The demographic cycle and optimal schooling choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, B P; Berger, M C

    1996-10-01

    A model is developed that enables the authors to estimate the effects of demographic cycles on both earnings and schooling. The model is tested using data from the 1991 Korean Occupational Wage Survey. The results indicate that cohorts following large birth cohorts in the cycle choose relatively less formal schooling compared to pre-peak cohorts, and that post-peak cohorts also have lower incomes. This result concerning South Korea is consistent with findings from previous studies concerning the United States.

  7. Improving public health training and research capacity in Africa: a replicable model for linking training to health and socio-demographic surveillance data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill R. Williams

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Research training for public health professionals is key to the future of public health and policy in Africa. A growing number of schools of public health are connected to health and socio-demographic surveillance system field sites in developing countries, in Africa and Asia in particular. Linking training programs with these sites provides important opportunities to improve training, build local research capacity, foreground local health priorities, and increase the relevance of research to local health policy. Objective: To increase research training capacity in public health programs by providing targeted training to students and increasing the accessibility of existing data. Design: This report is a case study of an approach to linking public health research and training at the University of the Witwatersrand. We discuss the development of a sample training database from the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System in South Africa and outline a concordant transnational intensive short course on longitudinal data analysis offered by the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Colorado-Boulder. This case study highlights ways common barriers to linking research and training can be overcome. Results and Conclusions: This collaborative effort demonstrates that linking training to ongoing data collection can improve student research, accelerate student training, and connect students to an international network of scholars. Importantly, the approach can be adapted to other partnerships between schools of public health and longitudinal research sites.

  8. Application of multidimensional item response theory models to longitudinal data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvelde, te Janneke M.; Glas, Cees A.W.; Van Landeghem, Georges; Van Damme, Jan

    2006-01-01

    The application of multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models to longitudinal educational surveys where students are repeatedly measured is discussed and exemplified. A marginal maximum likelihood (MML) method to estimate the parameters of a multidimensional generalized partial credit model

  9. Item response theory modeling with nonignorable missing data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pimentel, Jonald L.

    2005-01-01

    This thesis discusses methods to detect nonignorable missing data and methods to adjust for the bias caused by nonignorable missing data, both by introducing a model for the missing data indicator using item response theory (IRT) models.

  10. Proposal of a four-dimensional model of social response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nail, P R; MacDonald, G; Levy, D A

    2000-05-01

    Descriptive models of social response attempt to identify the conceptual dimensions necessary to define and distinguish various types of influence. Building on previous approaches, the authors propose a new response model and demonstrate that a minimum of 4 dimensions is necessary to adequately provide for such influence phenomena as conformity, minority influence, compliance, contagion, independence, and anticonformity in a single model. In addition, the proposed model suggests 5 potential types of response that have not been previously identified. These new types suggest directions for future research and theoretical development. Selected empirical evidence is reviewed in support of the validity and integrative power of the proposed model.

  11. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...... common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long...

  12. Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Rowland

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting changes across the globe. However, changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously may result in complex non-linear responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf and canopy scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (CLM3.5, ED2, JULES, SiB3, and SPA to simulate the responses of canopy and leaf scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation. There was greater model–data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange to changes in temperature, than in the response to temperature of leaf area index (LAI, net photosynthesis (An and stomatal conductance (gs. Modelled canopy scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf scale fluxes to LAI, and therefore in this study similarities in modelled ecosystem scale responses to drought and temperature were the result of inconsistent leaf scale and LAI responses among models. Across the models, the response of An to temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes. Consequently all the models predicted that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C colder, closer to the model optima for gs. There was however no model consistency in the response of the An–gs relationship when temperature changes and drought were introduced simultaneously. The inconsistencies in the An–gs relationships amongst models were caused by to non-linear model responses induced by simultaneous drought and temperature change. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need more complete validation to improve accuracy and consistency in the scaling

  13. Bayesian Estimation of Multi-Unidimensional Graded Response IRT Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Tzu-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Item response theory (IRT) has gained an increasing popularity in large-scale educational and psychological testing situations because of its theoretical advantages over classical test theory. Unidimensional graded response models (GRMs) are useful when polytomous response items are designed to measure a unified latent trait. They are limited in…

  14. Classification of scalar and dyadic nonlocal optical response models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wubs, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Nonlocal optical response is one of the emerging effects on the nanoscale for particles made of metals or doped semiconductors. Here we classify and compare both scalar and tensorial nonlocal response models. In the latter case the nonlocality can stem from either the longitudinal response...

  15. Hierarchical Bayes Models for Response Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craigmile, Peter F.; Peruggia, Mario; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2010-01-01

    Human response time (RT) data are widely used in experimental psychology to evaluate theories of mental processing. Typically, the data constitute the times taken by a subject to react to a succession of stimuli under varying experimental conditions. Because of the sequential nature of the experiments there are trends (due to learning, fatigue,…

  16. Response to Intervention and the Pyramid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Lise; Carta, Judith; Strain, Phillip S.; Dunlap, Glen; Hemmeter, Mary Louise

    2010-01-01

    Response to Intervention (RtI) is a systematic decision-making process that has gained widespread popularity as a problem-solving framework for organizing hierarchies of evidence-based interventions in the context of ongoing progress monitoring. Initially applied to literacy instruction, RtI is being incorporated into an expanding breadth of…

  17. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  18. A Comprehensive Model of the Response of Silicon Photomultipliers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dam, Herman T.; Seifert, Stefan; Vinke, Ruud; Dendooven, Peter; Lohner, Herbert; Beekman, Freek J.; Schaart, Dennis R.

    The response of a silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) to optical signals is inherently nonproportional due to saturation, afterpulsing, and crosstalk. Existing models of the SiPM response do not account for all of these effects, and therefore, these models are not sufficiently accurate for many

  19. A Comprehensive Model of the Response of Silicon Photomultipliers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dam, H.T.; Seifert, S.; Vinke, R.; Dendooven, P.; Löhner, H.; Beekman, F.J.; Schaart, D.R.

    2010-01-01

    The response of a silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) to optical signals is inherently nonproportional due to saturation, afterpulsing, and crosstalk. Existing models of the SiPM response do not account for all of these effects, and therefore, these models are not sufficiently accurate for many

  20. A Comprehensive Model of the Response of Silicon Photomultipliers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dam, Herman T.; Seifert, Stefan; Vinke, Ruud; Dendooven, Peter; Lohner, Herbert; Beekman, Freek J.; Schaart, Dennis R.

    2010-01-01

    The response of a silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) to optical signals is inherently nonproportional due to saturation, afterpulsing, and crosstalk. Existing models of the SiPM response do not account for all of these effects, and therefore, these models are not sufficiently accurate for many applicati

  1. The Nominal Response Model in Computerized Adaptive Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ayala, R. J.

    One important and promising application of item response theory (IRT) is computerized adaptive testing (CAT). The implementation of a nominal response model-based CAT (NRCAT) was studied. Item pool characteristics for the NRCAT as well as the comparative performance of the NRCAT and a CAT based on the three-parameter logistic (3PL) model were…

  2. Investigating the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Melissa; Goodrich, Kristopher M.

    2013-01-01

    This article reports an investigation of the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work, a trans-theoretical supervisory framework to address the needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) persons (Goodrich & Luke, 2011). Findings partially supported applicability of the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision…

  3. Investigating the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Melissa; Goodrich, Kristopher M.

    2013-01-01

    This article reports an investigation of the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work, a trans-theoretical supervisory framework to address the needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) persons (Goodrich & Luke, 2011). Findings partially supported applicability of the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision…

  4. Hierarchical Item Response Models for Cognitive Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Mark Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive diagnosis models (see, e.g., Rupp, Templin, & Henson, 2010) have received increasing attention within educational and psychological measurement. The popularity of these models may be largely due to their perceived ability to provide useful information concerning both examinees (classifying them according to their attribute profiles)…

  5. The Impact of Extrinsic Demographic Factors on Cantonese Speech Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Carol K. S.; Cheung, Pamela S. P.; McLeod, Sharynne

    2013-01-01

    This study modeled the associations between extrinsic demographic factors and children's speech acquisition in Hong Kong Cantonese. The speech of 937 Cantonese-speaking children aged 2;4 to 6;7 in Hong Kong was assessed using a standardized speech test. Demographic information regarding household income, paternal education, maternal education,…

  6. Dynamic modeling of cellular response to DNA damage based on p53 stress response networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jinpeng Qi; Yongsheng Ding; Shihuang Shao

    2009-01-01

    Under acute perturbations from the outside, cells can trigger self-defensive mechanisms to fight against genome stress. To investigate the cellular response to continuous ion radiation (IR), a dynamic model for p53 stress response networks at the cellular level is proposed. The model can successfully be used to simulate the dynamic processes of double-strand breaks (DSBs) generation and their repair, switch-like ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) activation, oscillations occurring in the p53-MDM2 feedback loop, as well as toxins elimination triggered by p53 stress response networks. Especially, the model can predict the plausible outcomes of cellular response under different IR dose regimes.

  7. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2016 Public

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  8. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Internal

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  9. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Public

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  10. Critical gradient response of the Weiland model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asp, E.; Weiland, J.; Garbet, X.; Parail, V.; Strand, P.; JET EFDA contributors, the

    2007-08-01

    The success the Weiland model has had in reproducing modulation experiments prompted this in-depth investigation into its behaviour as a critical gradient model (CGM). The critical gradient properties of the Weiland model is examined analytically and numerically and compared with the empirical CGM commonly used in experiment. A simplified Weiland CGM is derived in which the height-above-threshold dependence is not necessarily linear. Simultaneously, the validity of the empirical CGM was examined. It is shown that an effective threshold, which is higher than the instability threshold, can be obtained if pinches influence the diffusivity.

  11. AN ITEM RESPONSE MODEL WITH SINGLE PEAKED ITEM CHARACTERISTIC CURVES - THE PARELLA MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HOIJTINK, H; MOLENAAR, [No Value

    In this paper an item response model (the PARELLA model) designed specifically for the measurement of attitudes and preferences will be introduced. In contrast with the item response models currently used (e.g. the Rasch model and, the two and three parameter logistic model) the item characteristic

  12. Coupling genetic and species distribution models to examine the response of the Hainan Partridge (Arborophila ardens to late quaternary climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Chang

    Full Text Available Understanding the historical dynamics of animal species is critical for accurate prediction of their response to climate changes. During the late Quaternary period, Southeast Asia had a larger land area than today due to lower sea levels, and its terrestrial landscape was covered by extensive forests and savanna. To date, however, the distribution fluctuation of vegetation and its impacts on genetic structure and demographic history of local animals during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM are still disputed. In addition, the responses of animal species on Hainan Island, located in northern Southeast Asia, to climate changes during the LGM are poorly understood. Here, we combined phylogeographic analysis, paleoclimatic evidence, and species distribution models to examine the response of the flightless Hainan Partridge (Arborophila ardens to climate change. We concluded that A. ardens survived through LGM climate changes, and its current distribution on Hainan Island was its in situ refuge. Range model results indicated that A. ardens once covered a much larger area than its current distribution. Demographic history described a relatively stable pattern during and following the LGM. In addition, weak population genetic structure suggests a role in promoting gene flow between populations with climate-induced elevation shifts. Human activities must be considered in conservation planning due to their impact on fragmented habitats. These first combined data for Hainan Partridge demonstrate the value of paired genetic and SDMs study. More related works that might deepen our understanding of the responses of the species in Southeast Asia to late Quaternary Climate are needed.

  13. A Functional Model of the Aesthetic Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Conrad

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In a process of somatic evolution, the brain semi-randomly generates initially-unstable neural circuits that are selectively stabilized if they succeed in making sense out of raw sensory input. The human aesthetic response serves the function of stabilizing the circuits that successfully mediate perception and interpretation, making those faculties more agile, conferring selective advantage. It is triggered by structures in art and nature that provoke the making of sense. Art is deliberate human action aimed at triggering the aesthetic response in others; thus, if successful, it serves the same function of making perception and interpretation more agile. These few principles initiate a cascade of emergent phenomena which account for many observed qualities of aesthetics, including universality and idiosyncrasy of taste, the relevance of artists’ intentions, the virtues of openness and resonance, the dysfunction of formulaic art, and the fact that methods of art correspond to modes of perceptual transformation.

  14. Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrie, J; Imbrie, J Z

    1980-02-29

    According to the astronomical theory of climate, variations in the earth's orbit are the fundamental cause of the succession of Pleistocene ice ages. This article summarizes how the theory has evolved since the pioneer studies of James Croll and Milutin Milankovitch, reviews recent evidence that supports the theory, and argues that a major opportunity is at hand to investigate the physical mechanisms by which the climate system responds to orbital forcing. After a survey of the kinds of models that have been applied to this problem, a strategy is suggested for building simple, physically motivated models, and a time-dependent model is developed that simulates the history of planetary glaciation for the past 500,000 years. Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years.

  15. [Unfolding item response model using best-worst scaling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikehara, Kazuya

    2015-02-01

    In attitude measurement and sensory tests, the unfolding model is typically used. In this model, response probability is formulated by the distance between the person and the stimulus. In this study, we proposed an unfolding item response model using best-worst scaling (BWU model), in which a person chooses the best and worst stimulus among repeatedly presented subsets of stimuli. We also formulated an unfolding model using best scaling (BU model), and compared the accuracy of estimates between the BU and BWU models. A simulation experiment showed that the BWU modell performed much better than the BU model in terms of bias and root mean square errors of estimates. With reference to Usami (2011), the proposed models were apllied to actual data to measure attitudes toward tardiness. Results indicated high similarity between stimuli estimates generated with the proposed models and those of Usami (2011).

  16. 具有人口转变与人力资本的经济增长模型及仿真%An Economic Growth Model with the Demographic Transitions,Human Capital and Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡东汉

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we set up a model to inquire the affection of the demographic transition and human capital on the economic growth.Combining the function which describes the population change in the period of the demographic transition and the human growth equation with the Solow model, we obtain a two-dimension dynamical system.It is proved that the dynamical system has at least one equilibrium and the solution of the dynamical system is asymptotically stable, so the economy described by the model has stable growth path when the equilibrium is unique.In the end, the numerical simulation is given to present the affections of the demographic transition and human capital on the economic growth.%建立数学模型探讨了人口转变与人力资本对经济增长的影响.将描述人口转变的倒U字型人口增长率函数和人均人力资本引入Solow模型,结合人均人力资本增长方程得到二维的动力系统.证明动力系统至少存在一个非零平衡点且当非零平衡点惟一时,动力系统的解是渐近稳定的,模型描述的经济具有渐近稳定的经济增长路径.通过数值仿真展现人口转变与人力资本对经济增长的影响.

  17. Modeling responses and response times in personality tests with rating scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jochen Ranger

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article several latent trait models for the joint distribution of the responses and response times in rating scales are compared. Among these models are two generalizations of established models for binary items, namely a generalization of the approach of Ferrando and Lorenzo-Seva (2007a and a generalization of the approach of Ranger and Ortner (2011. Two new models and a variant of the hierarchical model of van der Linden (2007 are also considered. All these models combine the graded response model with a response time model based on the log-normal distribu-tion. The models differ in the assumed relationship between the expected log response time and the underlying latent traits. Although the proposed models have different interpretations and implications they can all be calibrated within the same general framework using marginal maximum likelihood estimation and an application of the ECM-algorithm. The models are used for the analysis of an empirical data set. According to the AIC index, the generalization of the model of Ranger and Ortner (2011 can represent the data best.

  18. Demographic Costs Associated with Differences in Habitat Space Occupancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kelly A; Miles, Donald B

    2016-01-01

    Delimiting the habitat characteristics describing the environmental conditions required by a species has become a critical tool for predicting organismal responses to environmental change. Grinnell emphasized the effects of environmental factors on the ability of a population to maintain a positive growth rate, yet few studies have included demographic or reproductive data in analyses of the Grinnellian niche. Identifying differences in habitat exploitation patterns in response to structural variation in the environment presents an incomplete description of the ability of species to adapt to changing habitats if demographic traits are not included. We estimated the vegetation characteristics used by individuals within a population of hooded warblers (Setophaga citrina) across a spatial transect that includes three structurally different forest habitats. We predicted individuals should select similar structural characteristics within each habitat and have similar reproductive success across sample sites. In the two years post burn, adults were present but no young fledged indicating the habitat requirements necessary for reproduction were absent in this habitat. We found significant differences in habitat space occupied by individuals in unaltered and harvested habitats. Nesting habitats used by female warblers differed from available habitat. Fledging success was lower in the harvested habitat 10 to 12 years post-harvest. In the harvested habitat, fledging success was greater on mesic slopes but decreased along a habitat gradient to xeric ridgetops, suggesting compensation in habitat use does not ameliorate fitness costs. In contrast, there was no difference in the number of fledged young along this gradient in the unaltered habitat. Based solely on occupancy data, traditional ecological niche models would incorrectly conclude the environmental characteristics found across the three forested habitats are included in the Grinnellian niche of the hooded warbler

  19. Model for Predicting End User Web Page Response Time

    CERN Document Server

    Nagarajan, Sathya Narayanan

    2012-01-01

    Perceived responsiveness of a web page is one of the most important and least understood metrics of web page design, and is critical for attracting and maintaining a large audience. Web pages can be designed to meet performance SLAs early in the product lifecycle if there is a way to predict the apparent responsiveness of a particular page layout. Response time of a web page is largely influenced by page layout and various network characteristics. Since the network characteristics vary widely from country to country, accurately modeling and predicting the perceived responsiveness of a web page from the end user's perspective has traditionally proven very difficult. We propose a model for predicting end user web page response time based on web page, network, browser download and browser rendering characteristics. We start by understanding the key parameters that affect perceived response time. We then model each of these parameters individually using experimental tests and statistical techniques. Finally, we d...

  20. Modeling crop responses to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    1993-01-01

    Potential biophysical responses of crops to climate change are studied focusing on the primary environmental variables which define the limits to agricultural crop growth and production, and the principal methods for predicting climate change impacts on crop geography and production. It is concluded that the principal uncertainties in the prediction of the impacts of climate change on agriculture reside in the contribution of the direct effects of increasing CO2, in potential changes inclimate variability, and the effects of adjustments mechanisms in the context of climatic changes.

  1. Tests of species-specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean-climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemmels, Jordan B; Title, Pascal O; Ortego, Joaquín; Knowles, L Lacey

    2016-10-01

    Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species-specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade-offs in functional traits, and local-scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade-off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.

  2. Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gozluklu, Arie; Morin, Annaïg

    that the slow-evolving time-series covariation due to changing population age structure accounts for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. As a result, by exploiting the demographic information into distant future, the forecasting performance of evaluation models improves. Finally, using...... a cross-country panel, we document the cross-sectional variation of the demographic effect and explain the cross-country differences in comovement between stock and bond markets.......This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. Life-cycle patterns in savings behavior in an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints explain this persistent comovement between financial yields. We argue...

  3. Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gozluklu, Arie; Morin, Annaïg

    that the slow-evolving time-series covariation due to changing population age structure accounts for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. As a result, by exploiting the demographic information into distant future, the forecasting performance of evaluation models improves. Finally, using...... a cross-country panel, we document the cross-sectional variation of the demographic effect and explain the cross-country differences in comovement between stock and bond markets.......This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. Life-cycle patterns in savings behavior in an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints explain this persistent comovement between financial yields. We argue...

  4. Modeling human response errors in synthetic flight simulator domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntuen, Celestine A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a control theoretic approach to modeling human response errors (HRE) in the flight simulation domain. The human pilot is modeled as a supervisor of a highly automated system. The synthesis uses the theory of optimal control pilot modeling for integrating the pilot's observation error and the error due to the simulation model (experimental error). Methods for solving the HRE problem are suggested. Experimental verification of the models will be tested in a flight quality handling simulation.

  5. Dissecting the Phase Response of a Model Bursting Neuron

    CERN Document Server

    Sherwood, William Erik

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the phase response properties of the Hindmarsh-Rose model of neuronal bursting using burst phase response curves (BPRCs) computed with an infinitesimal perturbation approximation and by direct simulation of synaptic input. The resulting BPRCs have a significantly more complicated structure than the usual Type I and Type II PRCs of spiking neuronal models, and they exhibit highly timing-sensitive changes in the number of spikes per burst that lead to large magnitude phase responses. We use fast-slow dissection and isochron calculations to analyze the phase response dynamics in both weak and strong perturbation regimes.

  6. Mortality versus Morbidity in the Demographic Transition

    OpenAIRE

    Aksan, Anna-Maria; Chakraborty, Shankha

    2014-01-01

    The link between the mortality and epidemiological transitions is used to identify the effect of the former on the fertility transition: a mortality transition that is not accompanied by improving morbidity causes slower demographic and economic change. In a model where children may die from infectious disease, childhood health affects human capital and noninfectious-disease-related adult mortality. When child mortality falls from lower prevalence, as it did in western Europe, labor productiv...

  7. A model of auditory nerve responses to electrical stimulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joshi, Suyash Narendra; Dau, Torsten; Epp, Bastian

    to neutralize the charge induced during the cathodic phase. Single-neuron recordings in cat auditory nerve using monophasic electrical stimulation show, however, that both phases in isolation can generate an AP. The site of AP generation differs for both phases, being more central for the anodic phase and more...... perception of CI listeners, a model needs to incorporate the correct responsiveness of the AN to anodic and cathodic polarity. Previous models of electrical stimulation have been developed based on AN responses to symmetric biphasic stimulation or to monophasic cathodic stimulation. These models, however......, fail to correctly predict responses to anodic stimulation. This study presents a model that simulates AN responses to anodic and cathodic stimulation. The main goal was to account for the data obtained with monophasic electrical stimulation in cat AN. The model is based on an exponential integrate...

  8. Functionally unidimensional item response models for multivariate binary data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ip, Edward; Molenberghs, Geert; Chen, Shyh-Huei;

    2013-01-01

    The problem of fitting unidimensional item response models to potentially multidimensional data has been extensively studied. The focus of this article is on response data that have a strong dimension but also contain minor nuisance dimensions. Fitting a unidimensional model to such multidimensio......The problem of fitting unidimensional item response models to potentially multidimensional data has been extensively studied. The focus of this article is on response data that have a strong dimension but also contain minor nuisance dimensions. Fitting a unidimensional model...... to such multidimensional data is believed to result in ability estimates that represent a combination of the major and minor dimensions. We conjecture that the underlying dimension for the fitted unidimensional model, which we call the functional dimension, represents a nonlinear projection. In this article we investigate...... tool. An example regarding a construct of desire for physical competency is used to illustrate the functional unidimensional approach....

  9. Bayesian Dimensionality Assessment for the Multidimensional Nominal Response Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Revuelta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces Bayesian estimation and evaluation procedures for the multidimensional nominal response model. The utility of this model is to perform a nominal factor analysis of items that consist of a finite number of unordered response categories. The key aspect of the model, in comparison with traditional factorial model, is that there is a slope for each response category on the latent dimensions, instead of having slopes associated to the items. The extended parameterization of the multidimensional nominal response model requires large samples for estimation. When sample size is of a moderate or small size, some of these parameters may be weakly empirically identifiable and the estimation algorithm may run into difficulties. We propose a Bayesian MCMC inferential algorithm to estimate the parameters and the number of dimensions underlying the multidimensional nominal response model. Two Bayesian approaches to model evaluation were compared: discrepancy statistics (DIC, WAICC, and LOO that provide an indication of the relative merit of different models, and the standardized generalized discrepancy measure that requires resampling data and is computationally more involved. A simulation study was conducted to compare these two approaches, and the results show that the standardized generalized discrepancy measure can be used to reliably estimate the dimensionality of the model whereas the discrepancy statistics are questionable. The paper also includes an example with real data in the context of learning styles, in which the model is used to conduct an exploratory factor analysis of nominal data.

  10. PLASMA MODEL-ONE MODEL OF ELECTROMAGNETIC RESPONSE OF MATTER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    H. Du; J. Gong; C. Sun; A.L. Ji; R.F. Huang; L.S. Wen

    2001-01-01

    The prerequisite and mode of electromagnetic response of nano metal/dielectric filmsto electromagnetic wave field were suggested. With the carrier density and the re-flectance, transmittance of the film, the plasma frequency and the dependence of ab-sorptance on the frequency of electromagnetic wave field were calculated respectively.The calculated results accorded with the experimental ones, which proved the plasmaresonance is one mode of electromagnetic response.

  11. Hazard Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-10-01

    ersio 114-11aiaiI I I I II L I ATINI Iri Ig IN Ig - ISI I I s InWLS I I I II I I I IWILLa RguOSmI IT$ INDS In s list INDIN I Im Ad inla o o ILLS I...OesotASII II I I I" GASau ATI im IVS ES Igo Igo INC 9 -U TIg IN ImS. I IgoIDI II i t I I ol f i isI I I I I I * WOOL ETY tGMIM (SU I YESMI jWM# GUSA imp I...is the concentration predicted by some component or model.P The variance of C /C is calculated and defined as var(Model I), where Modelo p I could be

  12. Leveraging First Response Time into the Knowledge Tracing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yutao; Heffernan, Neil T.

    2012-01-01

    The field of educational data mining has been using the Knowledge Tracing model, which only look at the correctness of student first response, for tracking student knowledge. Recently, lots of other features are studied to extend the Knowledge Tracing model to better model student knowledge. The goal of this paper is to analyze whether or not the…

  13. Item Response Modeling of Paired Comparison and Ranking Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Brown, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The comparative format used in ranking and paired comparisons tasks can significantly reduce the impact of uniform response biases typically associated with rating scales. Thurstone's (1927, 1931) model provides a powerful framework for modeling comparative data such as paired comparisons and rankings. Although Thurstonian models are generally…

  14. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Basso, Bruno; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Biernath, Christian; Brisson, Nadine; Challinor, Andrew J.; Doltra, Jordi; Gayler, Sebastian; Goldberg, Richard; Grant, Robert F.; Heng, Lee; Hooker, Josh; Hunt, Leslie A.; Ingwersen, Joachim; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Osborne, Tom M.; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Rötter, Reimund P.; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Steduto, Pasquale; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Travasso, Maria; Waha, Katharina; Wallach, Daniel; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and

  15. Design methods for some dose-response models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim; Strijbosch, Leo W.G.; Does, Ronald J.M.M.

    1990-01-01

    A recently described design method for one-parameter biomedical models such as limiting or serial dilution assays is generalized to two-parameter models for which the dose-response relationship can be expressed as a linear regression model with parameters α (intercept) and β (slope). Design formulae

  16. [Demographic approach to populations without writing: the Dogon example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown-demonet, E

    1989-01-01

    Anthropologists, geneticists, and epidemiologists need clear and detailed descriptions of the demographic situation of the populations they study in order to stratify their samples and calculate their degrees of significance as well as to evaluate the impact of particular traits on their field of investigation. Census and other available demographic data are usually not sufficiently precise, especially in illiterate populations. Establishing the genealogies of all families, conducting a census of all residents to verify and complete the genealogies, and designing 1 or more specific surveys of fertility, marriage, infant mortality, migration, or other topics are recommended to satisfy the needs of a multidisciplinary research team. Data collection is the most delicate phase of a demographer's work. The quality of contacts with the study population will determine response rates and the efforts of the population to give exact and precise information. Establishment of genealogies requires a good knowledge of the kinship system and the exact meaning of kinship terms. Surveys will be necessary to establish fertility and mortality rates, which will be greatly underestimated by the genealogies and census. Specific surveys may be retrospective, prospective, or a combination, depending on available time and budget. In addition to the classic omissions that are often increased in illiterate populations by lapses of memory, the problems may arise of misunderstanding of demographic concepts and tabus against reporting of certain events or practices or against directly mentioning certain names such as those of deceased husbands. Variables lending themselves to misunderstanding and false interpretations may include such socioeconomic features as principal occupation, educational level, marital status, and even age. The greatest source of error in a demographic analysis not based on a reliable civil registration system is undoubtedly omission, some of which is voluntary and not

  17. Modelling cladding response to changing conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tulkki, Ville; Ikonen, Timo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland ltd (Finland)

    2016-11-15

    The cladding of the nuclear fuel is subjected to varying conditions during fuel reactor life. Load drops and reversals can be modelled by taking cladding viscoelastic behaviour into account. Viscoelastic contribution to the deformation of metals is usually considered small enough to be ignored, and in many applications it merely contributes to the primary part of the creep curve. With nuclear fuel cladding the high temperature and irradiation as well as the need to analyse the variable load all emphasise the need to also inspect the viscoelasticity of the cladding.

  18. A holistic methodology for modeling consumer response to innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagozzi, R P

    1983-01-01

    A general structural equation model for representing consumer response to innovation is derived and illustrated. The approach both complements and extends an earlier model proposed by Hauser and Urban. Among other benefits, the model is able to take measurement error into account explicitly, to estimate the intercorrelation among exogenous factors if these exist, to yield a unique solution in a statistical sense, and to test complex hypotheses (e.g., systems of relations, simultaneity, feedback) associated with the measurement of consumer responses and their impact on actual choice behavior. In addition, the procedures permit one to model environmental and managerially controllable stimuli as they constrain and influence consumer choice. Limitations of the procedures are discussed and related to existing approaches. Included in the discussion is a development of four generic response models designed to provide a framework for modeling how consumers behave and how managers might better approach the design of products, persuasive appeals, and other controllable factors in the marketing mix.

  19. Full Hydrodynamic Model of Nonlinear Electromagnetic Response in Metallic Metamaterials

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, Ming; Sha, Wei E I; Xiong, Xiaoyan Y Z; Wu, Xianliang

    2016-01-01

    Applications of metallic metamaterials have generated significant interest in recent years. Electromagnetic behavior of metamaterials in the optical range is usually characterized by a local-linear response. In this article, we develop a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) solution of the hydrodynamic model that describes a free electron gas in metals. Extending beyond the local-linear response, the hydrodynamic model enables numerical investigation of nonlocal and nonlinear interactions between electromagnetic waves and metallic metamaterials. By explicitly imposing the current continuity constraint, the proposed model is solved in a self-consistent manner. Charge, energy and angular momentum conservation laws of high-order harmonic generation have been demonstrated for the first time by the Maxwell-hydrodynamic FDTD model. The model yields nonlinear optical responses for complex metallic metamaterials irradiated by a variety of waveforms. Consequently, the multiphysics model opens up unique opportunities f...

  20. A simple model for strong ground motions and response spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Erdal; Mueller, Charles; Boatwright, John

    1988-01-01

    A simple model for the description of strong ground motions is introduced. The model shows that response spectra can be estimated by using only four parameters of the ground motion, the RMS acceleration, effective duration and two corner frequencies that characterize the effective frequency band of the motion. The model is windowed band-limited white noise, and is developed by studying the properties of two functions, cumulative squared acceleration in the time domain, and cumulative squared amplitude spectrum in the frequency domain. Applying the methods of random vibration theory, the model leads to a simple analytical expression for the response spectra. The accuracy of the model is checked by using the ground motion recordings from the aftershock sequences of two different earthquakes and simulated accelerograms. The results show that the model gives a satisfactory estimate of the response spectra.

  1. PT -symmetric model of immune response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Carl M.; Ghatak, Ananya; Gianfreda, Mariagiovanna

    2017-01-01

    The study of PT -symmetric physical systems began in 1998 as a complex generalization of conventional quantum mechanics, but beginning in 2007 experiments began to be published in which the predicted PT phase transition was clearly observed in classical rather than in quantum-mechanical systems. This paper examines the classical PT phase transition in dynamical-system models that are moderately accurate representations of antigen-antibody systems. A surprising conclusion that can be drawn from these models is that it might be possible treat a serious disease in which the antigen concentration grows out of bounds (and the host dies) by injecting a small dose of a second (different) antigen. In this case a PT -symmetric analysis shows there are two possible favorable outcomes. In the unbroken-PT -symmetric phase the disease becomes chronic and is no longer lethal, while in the appropriate broken-PT -symmetric phase the concentration of lethal antigen goes to zero and the disease is completely cured.

  2. Model of corporate social responsability in food tourism

    OpenAIRE

    Naalyan Gendzheva

    2014-01-01

    The paper examines various aspects of the specificity of the postmodern trend in tourism - food tourism. Basic concepts are defined and classification of its various manifestations is proposed. Analyses are made for opportunities of responsible tourism in this area in order to achieve sustainability. In conclusion is proposed a model that creates opportunities for integrating socially responsible practices in the tourism sector through responsible food tourism.

  3. Sevoflurane Remifentanil Interaction Comparison of Different Response Surface Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heyse, Bjorn; Proost, Johannes H.; Schumacher, Peter M.; Bouillon, Thomas W.; Vereecke, Hugo E. M.; Eleveld, Douglas J.; Luginbuehl, Martin; Struys, Michel M. R. F.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Various pharmacodynamic response surface models have been developed to quantitatively describe the relationship between two or more drug concentrations with their combined clinical effect. We examined the interaction of remifentanil and sevoflurane on the probability of tolerance to shak

  4. Limited information estimation of the diffusion-based item response theory model for responses and response times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2016-05-01

    Psychological tests are usually analysed with item response models. Recently, some alternative measurement models have been proposed that were derived from cognitive process models developed in experimental psychology. These models consider the responses but also the response times of the test takers. Two such models are the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model. Both models can be calibrated with the diffIRT package of the R statistical environment via marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation. In this manuscript, an alternative approach to model calibration is proposed. The approach is based on weighted least squares estimation and parallels the standard estimation approach in structural equation modelling. Estimates are determined by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed and the implied covariance matrix. The estimator is simple to implement, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. Least squares estimation also provides a test of model fit by comparing the observed and implied covariance matrix. The estimator and the test of model fit are evaluated in a simulation study. Although parameter recovery is good, the estimator is less efficient than the MML estimator.

  5. Examining Response to Intervention (RTI) Models in Secondary Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epler, Pam, Ed.

    2015-01-01

    Response to Intervention (RTI) is an intervention model designed to assist all students regardless of their academic ability. It seeks to assist students who are struggling in academics by providing them with targeted assistance in the form of tutoring, pull-out services, and differentiated classroom instruction. "Examining Response to…

  6. Tourism Market and Demographic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Nedelea

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper identifies the major demographic trends and their implications for consumer market. It is important to know how will demographic change influence the tourism market in particularly and how can the tourist industry adapt to these. The advancing ageing of society will result in far reaching changes, particularly on the demand side. To profitably seize the opportunities, managers must understand how senior markets evolve and adapt products and service offerings along multiple dimensions to meet the needs of senior consumers.

  7. Modeling Clinical Radiation Responses in the IMRT Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, J. L.; Murray, D.; Stewart, R. D.; Phillips, M. H.

    2014-03-01

    The purpose of this review is to highlight the critical issues of radiobiological models, particularly as they apply to clinical radiation therapy. Developing models of radiation responses has a long history that continues to the present time. Many different models have been proposed, but in the field of radiation oncology, the linear-quadratic (LQ) model has had the most impact on the design of treatment protocols. Questions have been raised as to the value of the LQ model given that the biological assumption underlying it has been challenged by molecular analyses of cell and tissue responses to radiation. There are also questions as to use of the LQ model for hypofractionation, especially for high dose treatments using a single fraction. While the LQ model might over-estimate the effects of large radiation dose fractions, there is insufficient information to fully justify the adoption of alternative models. However, there is increasing evidence in the literature that non-targeted and other indirect effects of radiation sometimes produce substantial deviations from LQ-like dose-response curves. As preclinical and clinical hypofractionation studies accumulate, new or refined dose-response models that incorporate high-dose/fraction non-targeted and indirect effects may be required, but for now the LQ model remains a simple, useful tool to guide the design of treatment protocols.

  8. Time domain modeling of tunable response of graphene

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prokopeva, Ludmila; Emani, Naresh K.; Boltasseva, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    We present a causal numerical model for time domain simulations of the optical response of graphene. The dielectric function is approximated with a conductivity term, a Drude term and a number of the critical points terms.......We present a causal numerical model for time domain simulations of the optical response of graphene. The dielectric function is approximated with a conductivity term, a Drude term and a number of the critical points terms....

  9. Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

    OpenAIRE

    Mbaga, Msafiri Daudi; Coyle, Barry T.

    2003-01-01

    This is the first econometric study of dynamic beef supply response to incorporate risk aversion or, more specifically, price variance. Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models are estimated for cow-calf and feedlot operations using aggregate data for Alberta. In all cases, output price variance has a negative impact on output supply and investment. Moreover, the impacts of expected price on supply response are greater in magnitude and significance than in risk-neutral models.

  10. Characterization of a developmental toxicity dose-response model.

    OpenAIRE

    Faustman, E M; Wellington, D G; Smith, W P; Kimmel, C A

    1989-01-01

    The Rai and Van Ryzin dose-response model proposed for teratology experiments has been characterized for its appropriateness and applicability in modeling the dichotomous response data from developmental toxicity studies. Modifications were made in the initial probability statements to reflect more accurately biological events underlying developmental toxicity. Data sets used for the evaluation were obtained from the National Toxicology Program and U.S. EPA laboratories. The studies included ...

  11. Dynamic modelling of an electromechanical valve using frequency response data

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, R L; Smith, D. L.

    1986-01-01

    Dynamic modelling of electromechanical parts is often accomplished by conducting an analysis from first physical principles. While this is always a useful effort for physical insight, it may lead to transfer function models which are unnecessarily complex. This paper presents a supplementary dynamic modelling method based on frequency response data. The method is applied to modelling of a globe valve use for water flow control Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. http://archive.org/...

  12. Rural Household Demographics, Livelihoods and the Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sherbinin, Alex; Vanwey, Leah; McSweeney, Kendra; Aggarwal, Rimjhim; Barbieri, Alisson; Henry, Sabina; Hunter, Lori M; Twine, Wayne

    2008-02-01

    This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of micro-level studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land-cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.

  13. NDA SYSTEM RESPONSE MODELING AND ITS APPLICATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinson, D.

    2010-03-01

    is of the form of uranyl fluoride that will become hydrated on exposure to moisture in air when the systems are no longer buffered. The deposit geometry and thickness is uncertain and variable. However, a reasonable assessment of the level of material holdup in this equipment is necessary to support decommissioning efforts. The assessment of nuclear material holdup in process equipment is a complex process that requires integration of process knowledge, nondestructive assay (NDA) measurements, and computer modeling to maximize capabilities and minimize uncertainty. The current report is focused on the use of computer modeling and simulation of NDA measurements.

  14. How robust are models of precipitation response to aerosols?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carslaw, Ken; Johnson, Jill; Cui, Zhiqiang

    2016-04-01

    Models of cloud-aerosol interaction and effects on precipitation are complex and therefore slow to run, so our understanding mostly relies on case studies and a very limited exploration of model uncertainties. Here we address the concept of cloud model robustness. A robust model is one that is reliable under different conditions in spite of uncertainties in the underlying processes. To assess model robustness, we quantify how the accumulated precipitation from a mixed-phase convective cloud responds to changes in aerosol accounting for the combined uncertainties in ten microphysical processes. Sampling across the full uncertainty space is achieved using statistical emulators, which essentially enable tens of thousands of cloud-resolving model simulations to be performed. Overall, precipitation increases with aerosol when aerosol concentrations are low and decreases when aerosol concentrations are high. However, when we account for uncertainties across the ten-dimensional parameter space of microphysical processes, the direction of response can no longer be defined with confidence except under some rather narrow aerosol conditions. To assess robustness of the modelled precipitation response to aerosols, we select a set of model "variants" that display a particular response in one aerosol environment and use this subset of models to predict precipitation response in other aerosol environments. Despite essentially tight model tuning, the model has very little reliability in predicting precipitation responses in different aerosol environments. Based on these results, we argue that the neglect of model uncertainty and a narrow case-study approach using highly complex cloud models may lead to false confidence in our understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions.

  15. On Eliminating The Scrambling Variance In Scrambled Response Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zawar Hussain

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available To circumvent the response bias in sensitive surveys randomized response models are being used. To add into it we propose an improved response model utilizing both the additive and multiplicative scrambling method. The proposed model provides greater flexibility in terms of fixing the constantKdepending upon the guessed distribution of sensitive variable and nature of the population. The proposed model yields an unbiased estimator and is anticipated as more protective against the privacy of the respondents. The relative efficiency comparison of the proposed estimator is made relative to Hussain and Shabbir (2007 RRM. Furthermore, the proposed model itself is improved by taking the two responses from each respondent and suggesting a weighted estimator yielding an unbiased estimator having the minimum possible sampling variance. The suggested weighted estimator is unconditionally more efficient than all of the suggested estimators until now. Future research may be focused on privacy protection provided by the scrambling models. More scrambling models may be identified and improved by taking the two responses from each respondent in such a way that the scrambling effect is balanced out.

  16. Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Item Response Models in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew S. Johnson

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Item response theory (IRT models are a class of statistical models used by researchers to describe the response behaviors of individuals to a set of categorically scored items. The most common IRT models can be classified as generalized linear fixed- and/or mixed-effect models. Although IRT models appear most often in the psychological testing literature, researchers in other fields have successfully utilized IRT-like models in a wide variety of applications. This paper discusses the three major methods of estimation in IRT and develops R functions utilizing the built-in capabilities of the R environment to find the marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the generalized partial credit model. The currently available R packages ltm is also discussed.

  17. The Fundamentals of a Business Model Based on Responsible Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim Dumitrascu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The harmonization of profitability and social responsibility is possible under the adoption and practice conditions by the companies of some adequate business models. “Responsible profitability” must benefit as well of management tools that guide the business sequentially, based on some objective decision making criteria towards sustainable economic behaviors. The simultaneous increase of the specific economic over-value generated by social responsible investment (SRI project and responsible intensity of economic employment reflects the company’s strong subscription to the authentic sustainable development path.

  18. Logistics Dynamics and Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpp, Matthias; Abidi, Hella; Bioly, Sascha; Buchkremer, Rüdiger; Sandhaus, Gregor; Freitag, Michael; Kotzab, Herbert; Pannek, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Change and dynamics in logistics are interestingly driven at the same time by external as well as internal forces. This contribution outlines a big data literature review methodology to overview recognizable external changes and analyzes the interaction of one major trend—demographic change—further

  19. Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

    2017-06-01

    Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

  20. A model of placebo response in antidepressant clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Bret R; Roose, Steven P

    2013-07-01

    Placebo response in clinical trials of antidepressant medications is substantial and has been increasing. High placebo response rates hamper efforts to detect signals of efficacy for new antidepressant medications, contributing to trial failures and delaying the delivery of new treatments to market. Media reports seize upon increasing placebo response and modest advantages for active drugs as reasons to question the value of antidepressant medication, which may further stigmatize treatments for depression and dissuade patients from accessing mental health care. Conversely, enhancing the factors responsible for placebo response may represent a strategy for improving available treatments for major depressive disorder. A conceptual framework describing the causes of placebo response is needed in order to develop strategies for minimizing placebo response in clinical trials, maximizing placebo response in clinical practice, and talking with depressed patients about the risks and benefits of antidepressant medications. In this review, the authors examine contributors to placebo response in antidepressant clinical trials and propose an explanatory model. Research aimed at reducing placebo response should focus on limiting patient expectancy and the intensity of therapeutic contact in antidepressant clinical trials, while the optimal strategy in clinical practice may be to combine active medication with a presentation and level of therapeutic contact designed to enhance treatment response.

  1. Modelling non-ignorable missing-data mechanisms with item response theory models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holman, Rebecca; Glas, Cees A.W.

    2005-01-01

    A model-based procedure for assessing the extent to which missing data can be ignored and handling non-ignorable missing data is presented. The procedure is based on item response theory modelling. As an example, the approach is worked out in detail in conjunction with item response data modelled us

  2. Modeling Answer Change Behavior: An Application of a Generalized Item Response Tree Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Minjeong; De Boeck, Paul; van der Linden, Wim

    2017-01-01

    We present a novel application of a generalized item response tree model to investigate test takers' answer change behavior. The model allows us to simultaneously model the observed patterns of the initial and final responses after an answer change as a function of a set of latent traits and item parameters. The proposed application is illustrated…

  3. The Bottlenose Dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) as a Model to Understand Variation in Stress and Reproductive Hormone Measures in Relation to Sampling Matrix, Demographics, and Environmental Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Gompertz, and Von Bertalanffy structures. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian analog to Akaike information criterion , was used to assess...0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing...instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information . Send

  4. CONFIDENCE LOWER LIMITS FOR RESPONSE PROBABILITIES UNDER THE LOGISTIC RESPONSE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN Yubin; LI Guoying; YANG Jie

    2004-01-01

    The lower confidence limits for response probabilities based on binary response data under the logistic response model are considered by saddlepoint approach. The high order approximation to the conditional distribution of a statistic for an interested parameter and then the lower confidence limits of response probabilities are derived. A simulation comparing these lower confidence limits with those obtained from the asymptotic normality is conducted. The proposed approximation is applied to two real data sets. Numerical results show that the saddlepoint approximations are much more accurate than the asymptotic normality approximations, especially for the cases of small or moderate sample sizes.

  5. An Alternative Three-Parameter Logistic Item Response Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pashley, Peter J.

    Birnbaum's three-parameter logistic function has become a common basis for item response theory modeling, especially within situations where significant guessing behavior is evident. This model is formed through a linear transformation of the two-parameter logistic function in order to facilitate a lower asymptote. This paper discusses an…

  6. The LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Kristopher M.; Luke, Melissa

    2011-01-01

    Although supervision of group work has been linked to the development of multicultural and social justice competencies, there are no models for supervision of group work specifically designed to address the needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) persons. This manuscript presents the LGBTQ Responsive Model for…

  7. The LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Kristopher M.; Luke, Melissa

    2011-01-01

    Although supervision of group work has been linked to the development of multicultural and social justice competencies, there are no models for supervision of group work specifically designed to address the needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) persons. This manuscript presents the LGBTQ Responsive Model for…

  8. A Speeded Item Response Model with Gradual Process Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goegebeur, Yuri; De Boeck, Paul; Wollack, James A.; Cohen, Allan S.

    2008-01-01

    An item response theory model for dealing with test speededness is proposed. The model consists of two random processes, a problem solving process and a random guessing process, with the random guessing gradually taking over from the problem solving process. The involved change point and change rate are considered random parameters in order to…

  9. Multi-scale modeling of the CD8 immune response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbarroux, Loic, E-mail: loic.barbarroux@doctorant.ec-lyon.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Institut Camille Jordan (France); Ecole Centrale de Lyon, 36 avenue Guy de Collongue, 69134 Ecully (France); Michel, Philippe, E-mail: philippe.michel@ec-lyon.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Institut Camille Jordan (France); Ecole Centrale de Lyon, 36 avenue Guy de Collongue, 69134 Ecully (France); Adimy, Mostafa, E-mail: mostafa.adimy@inria.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Université Lyon 1, Institut Camille Jordan, 43 Bd. du 11 novembre 1918, F-69200 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Crauste, Fabien, E-mail: crauste@math.univ-lyon1.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Université Lyon 1, Institut Camille Jordan, 43 Bd. du 11 novembre 1918, F-69200 Villeurbanne Cedex (France)

    2016-06-08

    During the primary CD8 T-Cell immune response to an intracellular pathogen, CD8 T-Cells undergo exponential proliferation and continuous differentiation, acquiring cytotoxic capabilities to address the infection and memorize the corresponding antigen. After cleaning the organism, the only CD8 T-Cells left are antigen-specific memory cells whose role is to respond stronger and faster in case they are presented this very same antigen again. That is how vaccines work: a small quantity of a weakened pathogen is introduced in the organism to trigger the primary response, generating corresponding memory cells in the process, giving the organism a way to defend himself in case it encounters the same pathogen again. To investigate this process, we propose a non linear, multi-scale mathematical model of the CD8 T-Cells immune response due to vaccination using a maturity structured partial differential equation. At the intracellular scale, the level of expression of key proteins is modeled by a delay differential equation system, which gives the speeds of maturation for each cell. The population of cells is modeled by a maturity structured equation whose speeds are given by the intracellular model. We focus here on building the model, as well as its asymptotic study. Finally, we display numerical simulations showing the model can reproduce the biological dynamics of the cell population for both the primary response and the secondary responses.

  10. Finite Element Model Updating Using Response Surface Method

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes the response surface method for finite element model updating. The response surface method is implemented by approximating the finite element model surface response equation by a multi-layer perceptron. The updated parameters of the finite element model were calculated using genetic algorithm by optimizing the surface response equation. The proposed method was compared to the existing methods that use simulated annealing or genetic algorithm together with a full finite element model for finite element model updating. The proposed method was tested on an unsymmetri-cal H-shaped structure. It was observed that the proposed method gave the updated natural frequen-cies and mode shapes that were of the same order of accuracy as those given by simulated annealing and genetic algorithm. Furthermore, it was observed that the response surface method achieved these results at a computational speed that was more than 2.5 times as fast as the genetic algorithm and a full finite element model and 24 ti...

  11. Modeling the Responses of TSM Resonators under Various Loading Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bandey, H.L.; Cernosek, R.W.; Hillman, A.R.; Martin, S.J.

    1998-12-04

    We develop a general model that describes the electrical responses of thickness shear mode resonators subject to a variety of surface loadkgs. The model incorporates a physically diverse set of single component loadings, including rigid solids, viscoelastic media and fluids (Newtonian or Maxwellian). The model allows any number of these components to be combined in any configuration. Such multiple loadings are representative of a variety of physical situations encountered in electrochemical and other liquid phase applications, as well as gas phase applications. In the general case, the response of the composite is not a linear combination of the individual component responses. We discuss application of the model in a qualitative diagnostic fashion, to gain insight into the nature of the interracial structure, and in a quantitative fashion, to extract appropriate physical parameters, such as liquid viscosity and density and polymer shear moduli.

  12. Psychosocial service needs of pediatric transport accident survivors: Using clinical data-mining to establish demographic and service usage characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manguy, Alys-Marie; Joubert, Lynette; Bansemer, Leah

    2016-09-01

    The objectives in this article are the exploration of demographic and service usage data gained through clinical data mining audit and suggesting recommendations for social work service delivery model and future research. The method is clinical data-mining audit of 100 sequentially sampled cases gathering quantitative demographic and service usage data. Descriptive analysis of file audit data raised interesting trends with potential to inform service delivery and usage; the key areas of the results included patient demographics, family involvement and impact, and child safety and risk issues. Transport accidents involving children often include other family members. Care planning must take into account psychosocial issues including patient and family emotional responses, availability of primary carers, and other practical needs that may impact on recovery and discharge planning. This study provides evidence to plan for further research and development of more integrated models of care.

  13. Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric B Piel

    Full Text Available The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800 in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600 in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600] and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500] will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]. The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3

  14. Global Surface Temperature Response Explained by Multibox Energy Balance Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredriksen, H. B.; Rypdal, M.

    2016-12-01

    We formulate a multibox energy balance model, from which global temperature evolution can be described by convolving a linear response function and a forcing record. We estimate parameters in the response function from instrumental data and historic forcing, such that our model can produce a response to both deterministic forcing and stochastic weather forcing consistent with observations. Furthermore, if we make separate boxes for upper ocean layer and atmosphere over land, we can also make separate response functions for global land and sea surface temperature. By describing internal variability as a linear response to white noise, we demonstrate that the power-law form of the observed temperature spectra can be described by linear dynamics, contrary to a common belief that these power-law spectra must arise from nonlinear processes. In our multibox model, the power-law form can arise due to the multiple response times. While one of our main points is that the climate system responds over a wide range of time scales, we cannot find one set of time scales that can be preferred compared to other choices. Hence we think the temperature response can best be characterized as something that is scale-free, but still possible to approximate by a set of well separated time scales.

  15. Modeling the interactions between pathogenic bacteria, bacteriophage and immune response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Chung Yin (Joey); Weitz, Joshua S.

    The prevalence of antibiotic-resistant strains of pathogenic bacteria has led to renewed interest in the use of bacteriophage (phage), or virus that infects bacteria, as a therapeutic agent against bacterial infections. However, little is known about the theoretical mechanism by which phage therapy may work. In particular, interactions between the bacteria, the phage and the host immune response crucially influences the outcome of the therapy. Few models of phage therapy have incorporated all these three components, and existing models suffer from unrealistic assumptions such as unbounded growth of the immune response. We propose a model of phage therapy with an emphasis on nonlinear feedback arising from interactions with bacteria and the immune response. Our model shows a synergistic effect between the phage and the immune response which underlies a possible mechanism for phage to catalyze the elimination of bacteria even when neither the immune response nor phage could do so alone. We study the significance of this effect for different parameters of infection and immune response, and discuss its implications for phage therapy.

  16. Demographic Transformations of the Russian Regional Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Viktorovna Kurushina

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the transformations of the quantitative components of human capital, which is the main driver of economic growth in the material, institutional and mental space. According to the author’s concept of stratified space, the processes of self-reproduction and self-renewal of a system are carried out in the material space. This can be determined by the indicators of fertility, mortality and migration in the demographic subsystem. The process of self-regulation of a system on the basis of legislative acts and behavior patterns is carried out in the institutional space. Institutional transformations are also manifested in the implementation of federal target programs for socio-economic development, affecting the state of the demographic subsystem. The processes of self-reflection, self-determination and self-development are carried out in the mental space. Mental transformations in the demographic subsystem are manifested in the change of value orientations. In accordance with the system of values that are conceptualized in modern development strategies the authors define the following models of Man: Economic Man, Socio-Economic Man (who lives in agglomeration centers and at the periphery, Socio-Natural Man (Environmental Man and Householder Man and Innovative Man. Demographic shifts are investigated in 83 Russian regions on the determinants of birth rate and mortality. The analyzed period of transformation covers 2005 and 2012. Methods of matrix analysis are used to visualize the process of demographic shifts. The assessment of transformation of the stratified regional space spheres is given on the basis of the multifactor models of the population natural growth rate. The paper reveals the reduction in the level and variation of mortality rate, the increasing importance and differentiation of regions according to fertility rate, and the effectiveness of introducing the institution of maternity capital from a perspective of the

  17. Using dissipative particle dynamics to model micromechanics of responsive hydrogels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Alexander; Nikolov, Svetoslav; Fernandez de Las Nieves, Alberto

    2015-03-01

    The ability of responsive hydrogels to undergo complex and reversible shape transformations in response to external stimuli such as temperature, magnetic/electric fields, pH levels, and light intensity has made them the material of choice for tissue scaffolding, drug delivery, bio-adhesive, bio-sensing, and micro-sorting applications. The complex micromechanics and kinetics of these responsive networks however, currently hinders developments in the aforementioned areas. In order to better understand the mechanical properties of these systems and how they change during the volume transition we have developed a dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) model for responsive polymer networks. We use this model to examine the impact of the Flory-Huggins parameter on the bulk and shear moduli. In this fashion we evaluate how environmental factors can affect the micromechanical properties of these networks. Support from NSF CAREER Award (DMR-1255288) is gratefully acknowledged.

  18. Modeling of the Response Time of Thermal Flow Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Lang

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a simple theoretical model for the response time of thermal flow sensors. Response time is defined here as the time needed by the sensor output signal to reach 63.2% of amplitude due to a change of fluid flow. This model uses the finite-difference method to solve the heat transfer equations, taking into consideration the transient conduction and convection between the sensor membrane and the surrounding fluid. Program results agree with experimental measurements and explain the response time dependence on the velocity and the sensor geometry. Values of the response time vary from about 5 ms in the case of stagnant flow to 1.5 ms for a flow velocity of 44 m/s.

  19. Modeling of electrohydrodynamic drying process using response surface methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalvand, Mohammad Jafar; Mohtasebi, Seyed Saeid; Rafiee, Shahin

    2014-05-01

    Energy consumption index is one of the most important criteria for judging about new, and emerging drying technologies. One of such novel and promising alternative of drying process is called electrohydrodynamic (EHD) drying. In this work, a solar energy was used to maintain required energy of EHD drying process. Moreover, response surface methodology (RSM) was used to build a predictive model in order to investigate the combined effects of independent variables such as applied voltage, field strength, number of discharge electrode (needle), and air velocity on moisture ratio, energy efficiency, and energy consumption as responses of EHD drying process. Three-levels and four-factor Box-Behnken design was employed to evaluate the effects of independent variables on system responses. A stepwise approach was followed to build up a model that can map the entire response surface. The interior relationships between parameters were well defined by RSM.

  20. FAST Mast Structural Response to Axial Loading: Modeling and Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Elliott, Kenny B.; Templeton, Justin D.; Song, Kyongchan; Rayburn, Jeffery T.

    2012-01-01

    The International Space Station s solar array wing mast shadowing problem is the focus of this paper. A building-block approach to modeling and analysis is pursued for the primary structural components of the solar array wing mast structure. Starting with an ANSYS (Registered Trademark) finite element model, a verified MSC.Nastran (Trademark) model is established for a single longeron. This finite element model translation requires the conversion of several modeling and analysis features for the two structural analysis tools to produce comparable results for the single-longeron configuration. The model is then reconciled using test data. The resulting MSC.Nastran (Trademark) model is then extended to a single-bay configuration and verified using single-bay test data. Conversion of the MSC. Nastran (Trademark) single-bay model to Abaqus (Trademark) is also performed to simulate the elastic-plastic longeron buckling response of the single bay prior to folding.

  1. Genomic responses in mouse models poorly mimic human inflammatory diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seok, Junhee; Warren, H Shaw; Cuenca, Alex G; Mindrinos, Michael N; Baker, Henry V; Xu, Weihong; Richards, Daniel R; McDonald-Smith, Grace P; Gao, Hong; Hennessy, Laura; Finnerty, Celeste C; López, Cecilia M; Honari, Shari; Moore, Ernest E; Minei, Joseph P; Cuschieri, Joseph; Bankey, Paul E; Johnson, Jeffrey L; Sperry, Jason; Nathens, Avery B; Billiar, Timothy R; West, Michael A; Jeschke, Marc G; Klein, Matthew B; Gamelli, Richard L; Gibran, Nicole S; Brownstein, Bernard H; Miller-Graziano, Carol; Calvano, Steve E; Mason, Philip H; Cobb, J Perren; Rahme, Laurence G; Lowry, Stephen F; Maier, Ronald V; Moldawer, Lyle L; Herndon, David N; Davis, Ronald W; Xiao, Wenzhong; Tompkins, Ronald G

    2013-02-26

    A cornerstone of modern biomedical research is the use of mouse models to explore basic pathophysiological mechanisms, evaluate new therapeutic approaches, and make go or no-go decisions to carry new drug candidates forward into clinical trials. Systematic studies evaluating how well murine models mimic human inflammatory diseases are nonexistent. Here, we show that, although acute inflammatory stresses from different etiologies result in highly similar genomic responses in humans, the responses in corresponding mouse models correlate poorly with the human conditions and also, one another. Among genes changed significantly in humans, the murine orthologs are close to random in matching their human counterparts (e.g., R(2) between 0.0 and 0.1). In addition to improvements in the current animal model systems, our study supports higher priority for translational medical research to focus on the more complex human conditions rather than relying on mouse models to study human inflammatory diseases.

  2. Genomic responses in mouse models poorly mimic human inflammatory diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seok, Junhee; Warren, H. Shaw; Cuenca, Alex G.; Mindrinos, Michael N.; Baker, Henry V.; Xu, Weihong; Richards, Daniel R.; McDonald-Smith, Grace P.; Gao, Hong; Hennessy, Laura; Finnerty, Celeste C.; López, Cecilia M.; Honari, Shari; Moore, Ernest E.; Minei, Joseph P.; Cuschieri, Joseph; Bankey, Paul E.; Johnson, Jeffrey L.; Sperry, Jason; Nathens, Avery B.; Billiar, Timothy R.; West, Michael A.; Jeschke, Marc G.; Klein, Matthew B.; Gamelli, Richard L.; Gibran, Nicole S.; Brownstein, Bernard H.; Miller-Graziano, Carol; Calvano, Steve E.; Mason, Philip H.; Cobb, J. Perren; Rahme, Laurence G.; Lowry, Stephen F.; Maier, Ronald V.; Moldawer, Lyle L.; Herndon, David N.; Davis, Ronald W.; Xiao, Wenzhong; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Abouhamze, Amer; Balis, Ulysses G. J.; Camp, David G.; De, Asit K.; Harbrecht, Brian G.; Hayden, Douglas L.; Kaushal, Amit; O’Keefe, Grant E.; Kotz, Kenneth T.; Qian, Weijun; Schoenfeld, David A.; Shapiro, Michael B.; Silver, Geoffrey M.; Smith, Richard D.; Storey, John D.; Tibshirani, Robert; Toner, Mehmet; Wilhelmy, Julie; Wispelwey, Bram; Wong, Wing H

    2013-01-01

    A cornerstone of modern biomedical research is the use of mouse models to explore basic pathophysiological mechanisms, evaluate new therapeutic approaches, and make go or no-go decisions to carry new drug candidates forward into clinical trials. Systematic studies evaluating how well murine models mimic human inflammatory diseases are nonexistent. Here, we show that, although acute inflammatory stresses from different etiologies result in highly similar genomic responses in humans, the responses in corresponding mouse models correlate poorly with the human conditions and also, one another. Among genes changed significantly in humans, the murine orthologs are close to random in matching their human counterparts (e.g., R2 between 0.0 and 0.1). In addition to improvements in the current animal model systems, our study supports higher priority for translational medical research to focus on the more complex human conditions rather than relying on mouse models to study human inflammatory diseases. PMID:23401516

  3. Transient Response Model of Standing Wave Piezoelectric Linear Ultrasonic Motor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yunlai; CHEN Chao; ZHAO Chunsheng

    2012-01-01

    A transient response model for describing the starting and stopping characteristics of the standing wave piezoelectric linear ultrasonic motor was presented.Based on the contact dynamic model,the kinetic equation of the motor was derived.The starting and stopping characteristics of the standing wave piezoelectric linear ultrasonic motor according to different loads,contact stiffness and inertia mass were described and analyzed,respectively.To validate the transient response model,a standing wave piezoelectric linear ultrasonic motor based on in-plane modes was used to carry out the simulation and experimental study.The corresponding results showed that the simulation of the motor performances based on the proposed model agreed well with the experimental results.This model will helpful to improve the stepping characteristics and the control flexibility of the standing wave piezoelectric linear ultrasonic motor.

  4. Diffusion Based Modeling of Human Brain Response to External Stimuli

    CERN Document Server

    Namazi, Hamidreza

    2012-01-01

    Human brain response is the overall ability of the brain in analyzing internal and external stimuli in the form of transferred energy to the mind/brain phase-space and thus, making the proper decisions. During the last decade scientists discovered about this phenomenon and proposed some models based on computational, biological, or neuropsychological methods. Despite some advances in studies related to this area of the brain research there was less effort which have been done on the mathematical modeling of the human brain response to external stimuli. This research is devoted to the modeling of human EEG signal, as an alert state of overall human brain activity monitoring, due to receiving external stimuli, based on fractional diffusion equation. The results of this modeling show very good agreement with the real human EEG signal and thus, this model can be used as a strong representative of the human brain activity.

  5. Orientating cooperative learning model on social responsibility in physical education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Chuan Chiu

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Five alternative generic models on Physical Education were addressed by Jewett et al. (1995. Although these five generic models enumerate the main curriculum design, it rarely presents well the full view of it. Cooperative learning (CL is generally adopted by the teachers in social science field and receives splendid effects. In the field of physical education, there are also numerous successful examples applied on CL model. On the other hand, CL curriculum emphasizes on active learning that involves the processes of social interaction, making decision, and cognitive outcome to provide students with a holistic education; that was expelled from the five generic models. Therefore, this study adopts content analysis to explore the link between cooperative learning and social responsibility in physical education. Aforementioned, the contribution of this study is preliminarily building up CL model on social responsibility value orientation in physical education for the extension of Jewett et al. (1995 to complete the structure of the theoretical integrity.

  6. Finite Element Modeling of the Buckling Response of Sandwich Panels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Cheryl A.; Moore, David F.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Rankin, Charles C.

    2002-01-01

    A comparative study of different modeling approaches for predicting sandwich panel buckling response is described. The study considers sandwich panels with anisotropic face sheets and a very thick core. Results from conventional analytical solutions for sandwich panel overall buckling and face-sheet-wrinkling type modes are compared with solutions obtained using different finite element modeling approaches. Finite element solutions are obtained using layered shell element models, with and without transverse shear flexibility, layered shell/solid element models, with shell elements for the face sheets and solid elements for the core, and sandwich models using a recently developed specialty sandwich element. Convergence characteristics of the shell/solid and sandwich element modeling approaches with respect to in-plane and through-the-thickness discretization, are demonstrated. Results of the study indicate that the specialty sandwich element provides an accurate and effective modeling approach for predicting both overall and localized sandwich panel buckling response. Furthermore, results indicate that anisotropy of the face sheets, along with the ratio of principle elastic moduli, affect the buckling response and these effects may not be represented accurately by analytical solutions. Modeling recommendations are also provided.

  7. Spatial scale dependency of the modelled climatic response to deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    Longobardi, P.; Montenegro, A.; H. Beltrami; M. Eby

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. T...

  8. Immune Response to Electromagnetic Fields through Cybernetic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godina-Nava, J. J.; Segura, M. A. Rodríguez; Cadena, S. Reyes; Sierra, L. C. Gaitán

    2008-08-01

    We study the optimality of the humoral immune response through a mathematical model, which involves the effect of electromagnetic fields over the large lymphocytes proliferation. Are used the so called cybernetic variables in the context of the matching law of microeconomics or mathematical psychology, to measure the large lymphocytes population and to maximize the instantaneous antibody production rate in time during the immunologic response in order to most efficiently inactivate the antigen.

  9. Dynamic brittle material response based on a continuum damage model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, E.P.

    1994-12-31

    The response of brittle materials to dynamic loads was studied in this investigation based on a continuum damage model. Damage mechanism was selected to be interaction and growth of subscale cracks. Briefly, the cracks are activated by bulk tension and the density of activated cracks are described by a Weibull statistical distribution. The moduli of a cracked solid derived by Budiansky and O`Connell are then used to represent the global material degradation due to subscale cracking. This continuum damage model was originally developed to study rock fragmentation and was modified in the present study to improve on the post-limit structural response. The model was implemented into a transient dynamic explicit finite element code PRONTO 2D and then used for a numerical study involving the sudden stretching of a plate with a centrally located hole. Numerical results characterizing the dynamic responses of the material were presented. The effect of damage on dynamic material behavior was discussed.

  10. Modelling the SOS Response by Semi-Stochastic Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    NI Ming; WANG Si-Yuan; OUYANG Qi

    2008-01-01

    The SOS (save our soul) response induced by DNA damage in bacteria E coli has raised a great interests in biophysics and has been extensively studied. Previously we have developed a stochastic simulation model to explain the oscillatory-like modulation of SOS gene expression observed in experiment. Here we present an improved semi-stochastic model which has higher simulation efficiency, taking into account the updated knowledge about SOS response. The improved model suggests that frequency of the modulation is controlled by the negative feedback in the system. DNA polymerase V, the key enzyme for error-prone translesion synthesis during SOS response, plays a major role in closing up the negative feedback. It is also indicated that the correlation between the modulation and cellular growth observed in experiment is due to DNA damage induced slowing down of transcription and translation.

  11. Gender in Science and Engineering Faculties: Demographic Inertia Revisited.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole R Thomas

    Full Text Available The under-representation of women on faculties of science and engineering is ascribed in part to demographic inertia, which is the lag between retirement of current faculty and future hires. The assumption of demographic inertia implies that, given enough time, gender parity will be achieved. We examine that assumption via a semi-Markov model to predict the future faculty, with simulations that predict the convergence demographic state. Our model shows that existing practices that produce gender gaps in recruitment, retention, and career progression preclude eventual gender parity. Further, we examine sensitivity of the convergence state to current gender gaps to show that all sources of disparity across the entire faculty career must be erased to produce parity: we cannot blame demographic inertia.

  12. Gender in Science and Engineering Faculties: Demographic Inertia Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Nicole R; Poole, Daniel J; Herbers, Joan M

    2015-01-01

    The under-representation of women on faculties of science and engineering is ascribed in part to demographic inertia, which is the lag between retirement of current faculty and future hires. The assumption of demographic inertia implies that, given enough time, gender parity will be achieved. We examine that assumption via a semi-Markov model to predict the future faculty, with simulations that predict the convergence demographic state. Our model shows that existing practices that produce gender gaps in recruitment, retention, and career progression preclude eventual gender parity. Further, we examine sensitivity of the convergence state to current gender gaps to show that all sources of disparity across the entire faculty career must be erased to produce parity: we cannot blame demographic inertia.

  13. A unified impulse response model for DCE-MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schabel, Matthias C

    2012-11-01

    We describe the gamma capillary transit time model, a generalized impulse response model for DCE-MRI that mathematically unifies the Tofts-Kety, extended Tofts-Kety, adiabatic tissue homogeneity, and two-compartment exchange models. By including a parameter (α⁻¹) representing the width of the distribution of capillary transit times within a tissue voxel, the GCTT model discriminates tissues having relatively monodisperse transit time distributions from those having a large degree of heterogeneity. All five models were compared using in vivo data acquired in three brain tumors (one glioblastoma multiforme, one pleomorphic xanthoastrocytoma, and one anaplastic meningioma) and Monte Carlo simulations. Our principal findings are : (1) The four most commonly used models for dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging can be unified within a single formalism. (2) Application of the GCTT model to in vivo data incurs only modest penalties in parameter uncertainty and computational cost. (3) Measured nonparametric impulse response functions in human brain tumors are well described by the GCTT model. (4) Estimation of α⁻¹ is feasible but achieving statistical significance requires higher SNR than is typically obtained in single voxel dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging data. These results suggest that the GCTT model may be useful for extraction of information about tumor physiology beyond what is obtained using current modeling methodologies.

  14. ELM control with RMP: plasma response models and the role of edge peeling response

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Yueqiang; Kirk, A; Li, Li; Loarte, A; Ryan, D A; Sun, Youwen; Suttrop, W; Yang, Xu; Zhou, Lina

    2016-01-01

    Resonant magnetic perturbations (RMP) have extensively been demonstrated as a plausible technique for mitigating or suppressing large edge localized modes (ELMs). Associated with this is a substantial amount of theory and modelling efforts during recent years. Various models describing the plasma response to the RMP fields have been proposed in the literature, and are briefly reviewed in this work. Despite their simplicity, linear response models can provide alternative criteria, than the vacuum field based criteria, for guiding the choice of the coil configurations to achieve the best control of ELMs. The role of the edge peeling response to the RMP fields is illustrated as a key indicator for the ELM mitigation in low collisionality plasmas, in various tokamak devices.

  15. ELM control with RMP: plasma response models and the role of edge peeling response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yueqiang; Ham, C. J.; Kirk, A.; Li, Li; Loarte, A.; Ryan, D. A.; Sun, Youwen; Suttrop, W.; Yang, Xu; Zhou, Lina

    2016-11-01

    Resonant magnetic perturbations (RMP) have extensively been demonstrated as a plausible technique for mitigating or suppressing large edge localized modes (ELMs). Associated with this is a substantial amount of theory and modelling efforts during recent years. Various models describing the plasma response to the RMP fields have been proposed in the literature, and are briefly reviewed in this work. Despite their simplicity, linear response models can provide alternative criteria, than the vacuum field based criteria, for guiding the choice of the coil configurations to achieve the best control of ELMs. The role of the edge peeling response to the RMP fields is illustrated as a key indicator for the ELM mitigation in low collisionality plasmas, in various tokamak devices.

  16. Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Sarel

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth. First, it develops a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age. Second, it uses macroeconomic and demographic data to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups. Third, it constructs a panel database of effective labor supply in order to reflect the changing age-structure of the population. Fourth, it decomposes the historical measured growth rates into effe...

  17. Development of a dose-response model for SARS coronavirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Toru; Bartrand, Timothy A; Weir, Mark H; Omura, Tatsuo; Haas, Charles N

    2010-07-01

    In order to develop a dose-response model for SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), the pooled data sets for infection of transgenic mice susceptible to SARS-CoV and infection of mice with murine hepatitis virus strain 1, which may be a clinically relevant model of SARS, were fit to beta-Poisson and exponential models with the maximum likelihood method. The exponential model (k= 4.1 x l0(2)) could describe the dose-response relationship of the pooled data sets. The beta-Poisson model did not provide a statistically significant improvement in fit. With the exponential model, the infectivity of SARS-CoV was calculated and compared with those of other coronaviruses. The does of SARS-CoV corresponding to 10% and 50% responses (illness) were estimated at 43 and 280 PFU, respectively. Its estimated infectivity was comparable to that of HCoV-229E, known as an agent of human common cold, and also similar to those of some animal coronaviruses belonging to the same genetic group. Moreover, the exponential model was applied to the analysis of the epidemiological data of SARS outbreak that occurred at an apartment complex in Hong Kong in 2003. The estimated dose of SARS-CoV for apartment residents during the outbreak, which was back-calculated from the reported number of cases, ranged from 16 to 160 PFU/person, depending on the floor. The exponential model developed here is the sole dose-response model for SARS-CoV at the present and would enable us to understand the possibility for reemergence of SARS.

  18. Benchmarking nuclear models for Gamow–Teller response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvinova, E., E-mail: elena.litvinova@wmich.edu [Department of Physics, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI 49008-5252 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Brown, B.A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Fang, D.-L. [National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Marketin, T. [Physics Department, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb (Croatia); Zegers, R.G.T. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States)

    2014-03-07

    A comparative study of the nuclear Gamow–Teller response (GTR) within conceptually different state-of-the-art approaches is presented. Three nuclear microscopic models are considered: (i) the recently developed charge-exchange relativistic time blocking approximation (RTBA) based on the covariant density functional theory, (ii) the shell model (SM) with an extended “jj77” model space and (iii) the non-relativistic quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) with a Brueckner G-matrix effective interaction. We study the physics cases where two or all three of these models can be applied. The Gamow–Teller response functions are calculated for {sup 208}Pb, {sup 132}Sn and {sup 78}Ni within both RTBA and QRPA. The strengths obtained for {sup 208}Pb are compared to data that enable a firm model benchmarking. For the nucleus {sup 132}Sn, also SM calculations are performed within the model space truncated at the level of a particle–hole (ph) coupled to vibration configurations. This allows a consistent comparison to the RTBA where ph⊗phonon coupling is responsible for the spreading width and considerable quenching of the GTR. Differences between the models and perspectives of their future developments are discussed.

  19. Modelling benthic biophysical drivers of ecosystem structure and biogeochemical response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Nicholas; Bruggeman, Jorn; Lessin, Gennadi; Allen, Icarus

    2016-04-01

    The fate of carbon deposited at the sea floor is ultimately decided by biophysical drivers that control the efficiency of remineralisation and timescale of carbon burial in sediments. Specifically, these drivers include bioturbation through ingestion and movement, burrow-flushing and sediment reworking, which enhance vertical particulate transport and solute diffusion. Unfortunately, these processes are rarely satisfactorily resolved in models. To address this, a benthic model that explicitly describes the vertical position of biology (e.g., habitats) and biogeochemical processes is presented that includes biological functionality and biogeochemical response capturing changes in ecosystem structure, benthic-pelagic fluxes and biodiversity on inter-annual timescales. This is demonstrated by the model's ability to reproduce temporal variability in benthic infauna, vertical pore water nutrients and pelagic-benthic solute fluxes compared to in-situ data. A key advance is the replacement of bulk parameterisation of bioturbation by explicit description of the bio-physical processes responsible. This permits direct comparison with observations and determination of key parameters in experiments. Crucially, the model resolves the two-way interaction between sediment biogeochemistry and ecology, allowing exploration of the benthic response to changing environmental conditions, the importance of infaunal functional traits in shaping benthic ecological structure and the feedback the resulting bio-physical processes exert on pore water nutrient profiles. The model is actively being used to understand shelf sea carbon cycling, the response of the benthos to climatic change, food provision and other societal benefits.

  20. Using machine learning to model dose-response relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K

    2016-12-01

    Establishing the relationship between various doses of an exposure and a response variable is integral to many studies in health care. Linear parametric models, widely used for estimating dose-response relationships, have several limitations. This paper employs the optimal discriminant analysis (ODA) machine-learning algorithm to determine the degree to which exposure dose can be distinguished based on the distribution of the response variable. By framing the dose-response relationship as a classification problem, machine learning can provide the same functionality as conventional models, but can additionally make individual-level predictions, which may be helpful in practical applications like establishing responsiveness to prescribed drug regimens. Using data from a study measuring the responses of blood flow in the forearm to the intra-arterial administration of isoproterenol (separately for 9 black and 13 white men, and pooled), we compare the results estimated from a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model with those estimated using ODA. Generalized estimating equations and ODA both identified many statistically significant dose-response relationships, separately by race and for pooled data. Post hoc comparisons between doses indicated ODA (based on exact P values) was consistently more conservative than GEE (based on estimated P values). Compared with ODA, GEE produced twice as many instances of paradoxical confounding (findings from analysis of pooled data that are inconsistent with findings from analyses stratified by race). Given its unique advantages and greater analytic flexibility, maximum-accuracy machine-learning methods like ODA should be considered as the primary analytic approach in dose-response applications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Spanish flu, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, and seasonal influenza in Japan under social and demographic influence: review and analysis using the two-population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikura, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    When cumulative numbers of patients (X) and deaths (Y) associated with an influenza epidemic are plotted using the log-log scale, the plots fall on an ascending straight line generally expressed as logY = k(logX - logN0). For the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the slope k was ~0.6 for Mexico and ~2 for other countries. The two-population model was proposed to explain this phenomenon (Yoshikura H. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2012;65:279-88; Yoshikura H. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2009;62:411-2; and Yoshikura H. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2009;62:482-4). The current article reviews and analyzes previous influenza epidemics in Japan to examine whether the two-population model is applicable to them. The slope k was found to be ~2 for the Spanish flu during 1918-1920 and the Asian flu during 1957-1958, and ~1 for the Hong Kong flu and seasonal influenza prior to 1960-1961; however, k was ~0.6 for seasonal influenza after 1960-1961. This transition of the slope k of seasonal influenza plots from ~1 to ~0.6 corresponded to the shift in influenza mortality toward the older age groups and a drastic reduction in infant mortality rates due to improvements in the standard of living during the 1950s and 1960s. All the above observations could be well explained by reconstitution of the influenza epidemic based on the two-population model.

  2. [Demographic analysis of family-related life cycles of Austrian women: a multidimensional model of marriage, fertility, and divorce behavior in the years 1976-1986].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aufhauser, E; Lutz, W

    1989-01-01

    Summary results are presented from a research project designed to investigate the family life cycle of Austrian women by using a multidimensional model of marriage, fertility, and divorce. Data are from the 1976 and 1986 microcensuses. Topics discussed include the impact of illegitimate birth on women's future marital status, the relationship between number of children and the probability of divorce and of remarriage, the average number of years spent in different phases of the family life cycle, and the implications of current behavior patterns for future family structure in Austria.

  3. Item Response Theory Using Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamdollah Ravand

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Multilevel models (MLMs are flexible in that they can be employed to obtain item and person parameters, test for differential item functioning (DIF and capture both local item and person dependence. Papers on the MLM analysis of item response data have focused mostly on theoretical issues where applications have been add-ons to simulation studies with a methodological focus. Although the methodological direction was necessary as a first step to show how MLMs can be utilized and extended to model item response data, the emphasis needs to be shifted towards providing evidence on how applications of MLMs in educational testing can provide the benefits that have been promised. The present study uses foreign language reading comprehension data to illustrate application of hierarchical generalized models to estimate person and item parameters, differential item functioning (DIF, and local person dependence in a three-level model.

  4. Effect of geometry in frequency response modeling of nanomechanical resonators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahani, M. Nasr; Yilmaz, M.; Sonne, M. R.; Hattel, J. H.; Alaca, B. Erdem

    2016-06-01

    The trend towards nanomechanical resonator sensors with increasing sensitivity raises the need to address challenges encountered in the modeling of their mechanical behavior. Selecting the best approach in mechanical response modeling amongst the various potential computational solid mechanics methods is subject to controversy. A guideline for the selection of the appropriate approach for a specific set of geometry and mechanical properties is needed. In this study, geometrical limitations in frequency response modeling of flexural nanomechanical resonators are investigated. Deviation of Euler and Timoshenko beam theories from numerical techniques including finite element modeling and Surface Cauchy-Born technique are studied. The results provide a limit beyond which surface energy contribution dominates the mechanical behavior. Using the Surface Cauchy-Born technique as the reference, a maximum error on the order of 50 % is reported for high-aspect ratio resonators.

  5. Predicting aquifer response time for application in catchment modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Glen R; Gilfedder, Mat; Dawes, Warrick R; Rassam, David W

    2015-01-01

    It is well established that changes in catchment land use can lead to significant impacts on water resources. Where land-use changes increase evapotranspiration there is a resultant decrease in groundwater recharge, which in turn decreases groundwater discharge to streams. The response time of changes in groundwater discharge to a change in recharge is a key aspect of predicting impacts of land-use change on catchment water yield. Predicting these impacts across the large catchments relevant to water resource planning can require the estimation of groundwater response times from hundreds of aquifers. At this scale, detailed site-specific measured data are often absent, and available spatial data are limited. While numerical models can be applied, there is little advantage if there are no detailed data to parameterize them. Simple analytical methods are useful in this situation, as they allow the variability in groundwater response to be incorporated into catchment hydrological models, with minimal modeling overhead. This paper describes an analytical model which has been developed to capture some of the features of real, sloping aquifer systems. The derived groundwater response timescale can be used to parameterize a groundwater discharge function, allowing groundwater response to be predicted in relation to different broad catchment characteristics at a level of complexity which matches the available data. The results from the analytical model are compared to published field data and numerical model results, and provide an approach with broad application to inform water resource planning in other large, data-scarce catchments. © 2014, CommonWealth of Australia. Groundwater © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

  6. Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Stephen W.; Walker, William Q.

    2011-01-01

    A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that predict Orion vehicle temperatures within 10 F. The study used the Orion Outer Mold Line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty-three external Orion components were selected and their minimum and maximum temperatures captured over a period of two orbits. Thus, there are 46 responses. A DOE case matrix of 145 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce a fifth order RSE for each of the temperature responses. For the 145 cases in the DOE matrix, the agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging with 40 of the 46 RSEs predicting temperatures within the goal band. However, the verification cases showed most responses did not meet the 10 F goal. After reframing the focus of the study to better align the RSE development with the purposes of the model, a set of RSEs for both the minimum and maximum radiator temperatures was produced which predicted the engineering model output within +/-4 F. Therefore, with the correct application of the DOE/RSE methodology, RSEs can be developed that provide analysts a fast and easy way to screen large numbers of environments and assess proposed changes to the RSE factors.

  7. Chemical Leasing business models and corporate social responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, Frank; Jakl, Thomas; Joas, Reihard; Dondi, Francesco

    2014-11-01

    Chemical Leasing is a service-oriented business model that shifts the focus from increasing sales volume of chemicals towards a value-added approach. Recent pilot projects have shown the economic benefits of introducing Chemical Leasing business models in a broad range of sectors. A decade after its introduction, the promotion of Chemical Leasing is still predominantly done by the public sector and international organizations. We show in this paper that awareness-raising activities to disseminate information on this innovative business model mainly focus on the economic benefits. We argue that selling Chemical Leasing business models solely on the grounds of economic and ecological considerations falls short of branding it as a corporate social responsibility initiative, which, for this paper, is defined as a stakeholder-oriented concept that extends beyond the organization's boundaries and is driven by an ethical understanding of the organization's responsibility for the impact of its business activities. For the analysis of Chemical Leasing business models, we introduce two case studies from the water purification and metal degreasing fields, focusing on employees and local communities as two specific stakeholder groups of the company introducing Chemical Leasing. The paper seeks to demonstrate that Chemical Leasing business models can be branded as a corporate social responsibility initiative by outlining the vast potential of Chemical Leasing to improve occupational health and safety and to strengthen the ability of companies to protect the environment from the adverse effects of the chemicals they apply.

  8. Health risks from arsenic-contaminated soil in Flin Flon-Creighton, Canada: Integrating geostatistical simulation and dose-response model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Hua [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.or [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada); Zeng Guangming [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, Hunan 410082 (China)

    2009-08-15

    Elevated concentrations of arsenic were detected in surface soils adjacent to a smelting complex in northern Canada. We evaluated the cancer risks caused by exposure to arsenic in two communities through combining geostatistical simulation with demographic data and dose-response models in a framework. Distribution of arsenic was first estimated using geostatistical circulant-embedding simulation method. We then evaluated the exposures from inadvertent ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact. Risks of skin caner and three internal cancers were estimated at both grid scale and census-unit scale using parametric dose-response models. Results indicated that local residents could face non-negligible cancer risks (skin cancer and liver cancer mainly). Uncertainties of risk estimates were discussed from the aspects of arsenic concentrations, exposed population and dose-response model. Reducing uncertainties would require additional soil sampling, epidemic records as well as complementary studies on land use, demographic variation, outdoor activities and bioavailability of arsenic. - Cancer risks induced by arsenic in soil were evaluated using geostatistical simulation and dose-response model.

  9. Modeling and prioritizing demand response programs in power markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aalami, H.A.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Yousefi, G.R. [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran)

    2010-04-15

    One of the responsibilities of power market regulator is setting rules for selecting and prioritizing demand response (DR) programs. There are many different alternatives of DR programs for improving load profile characteristics and achieving customers' satisfaction. Regulator should find the optimal solution which reflects the perspectives of each DR stakeholder. Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) is a proper method for handling such optimization problems. In this paper, an extended responsive load economic model is developed. The model is based on price elasticity and customer benefit function. Prioritizing of DR programs can be realized by means of Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. Considerations of ISO/utility/customer regarding the weighting of attributes are encountered by entropy method. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for selecting the most effective DR program. Numerical studies are conducted on the load curve of the Iranian power grid in 2007. (author)

  10. Robust discriminative response map fitting with constrained local models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asthana, Akshay; Zafeiriou, Stefanos; Cheng, Shiyang; Pantic, Maja

    2013-01-01

    We present a novel discriminative regression based approach for the Constrained Local Models (CLMs) framework, referred to as the Discriminative Response Map Fitting (DRMF) method, which shows impressive performance in the generic face fitting scenario. The motivation behind this approach is that, u

  11. Multilevel Higher-Order Item Response Theory Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    In the social sciences, latent traits often have a hierarchical structure, and data can be sampled from multiple levels. Both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data can occur simultaneously. In this study, we developed a general class of item response theory models to accommodate both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data. The…

  12. Higher-Order Item Response Models for Hierarchical Latent Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung; Chen, Po-Hsi; Su, Chi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Many latent traits in the human sciences have a hierarchical structure. This study aimed to develop a new class of higher order item response theory models for hierarchical latent traits that are flexible in accommodating both dichotomous and polytomous items, to estimate both item and person parameters jointly, to allow users to specify…

  13. Models of the delayed nonlinear Raman response in diatomic gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palastro, J. P.; Antonsen, T. M., Jr.; Pearson, A.

    2011-07-01

    We examine the delayed response of a diatomic gas to a polarizing laser field with the goal of obtaining computationally efficient methods for use with laser pulse propagation simulations. We demonstrate that for broadband pulses, heavy molecules such as O2 and N2, and typical atmospheric temperatures, the initial delayed response requires only classical physics. The linear kinetic Green's function is derived from the Boltzmann equation and shown to be in excellent agreement with full density-matrix calculations. A straightforward perturbation approach for the fully nonlinear, kinetic impulse response is also presented. With the kinetic theory a reduced fluid model of the diatomic gas’ orientation is derived. Transport coefficients are introduced to model the kinetic phase mixing of the delayed response. In addition to computational rapidity, the fluid model provides intuition through the use of familiar macroscopic quantities. Both the kinetic and the fluid descriptions predict a nonlinear steady-state alignment after passage of the laser pulse, which in the fluid model is interpreted as an anisotropic temperature of the diatomic fluid with respect to motion about the polarization axis.

  14. A Framework for Dimensionality Assessment for Multidimensional Item Response Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svetina, Dubravka; Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    A framework is introduced for considering dimensionality assessment procedures for multidimensional item response models. The framework characterizes procedures in terms of their confirmatory or exploratory approach, parametric or nonparametric assumptions, and applicability to dichotomous, polytomous, and missing data. Popular and emerging…

  15. A novel micromechanics based approach in modeling pavement response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Arun

    For maintaining a smooth flow of traffic in the nation's highway system, sections of pavements that are damaged need to be serviced frequently. Among the various types of damage, those caused by heavy trucks are a major concern. Based on a detailed and broad literature survey, it is apparent that no analytical model exists which could closely predict dynamic pavement response and progressive damage, even qualitatively, due to truck loading. It is such a model that is developed in this work. In order to predict pavement response and damage analytically, a model will have to be based on a theory that captures the essential features of the pavement material. The state-of-the-art Microplane Theory, which has never been applied before to pavement, is chosen to model the material behavior in this research. The theory is implemented in a finite element code to predict tri-axial pavement response. The pavement material damage due to traffic loading is also presented qualitatively. Furthermore, using Taguchi Methods, the critical parameters in a pavement design are determined. Finally, the response of pavement to various joint designs parameters is evaluated.

  16. Using SAS PROC MCMC for Item Response Theory Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ames, Allison J.; Samonte, Kelli

    2015-01-01

    Interest in using Bayesian methods for estimating item response theory models has grown at a remarkable rate in recent years. This attentiveness to Bayesian estimation has also inspired a growth in available software such as WinBUGS, R packages, BMIRT, MPLUS, and SAS PROC MCMC. This article intends to provide an accessible overview of Bayesian…

  17. Graded Response Modeling of the Quality of Life Interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttaro, Thomas; Lehman, Anthony

    1999-01-01

    Outlined a graded response model and applied it to an aggregated data set from four studies involving subjective items from the Quality of Life Interview (QOLI) (A. Lehman, 1988). Used the results to create customized QOLI scales. Discusses the use of this methodology for scales involving ordered, graded categories. (SLD)

  18. Latent Growth Curve Models for Biomarkers of the Stress Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Felt

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The stress response is a dynamic process that can be characterized by predictable biochemical and psychological changes. Biomarkers of the stress response are typically measured over time and require statistical methods that can model change over time. One flexible method of evaluating change over time is the latent growth curve model (LGCM. However, stress researchers seldom use the LGCM when studying biomarkers, despite their benefits. Stress researchers may be unaware of how these methods can be useful. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of LGCMs in the context of stress research. We specifically highlight the unique benefits of using these approaches.Methods: Hypothetical examples are used to describe four forms of the LGCM.Results: The following four specifications of the LGCM are described: basic LGCM, latent growth mixture model, piecewise LGCM, and LGCM for two parallel processes. The specifications of the LGCM are discussed in the context of the Trier Social Stress Test. Beyond the discussion of the four models, we present issues of modeling nonlinear patterns of change, assessing model fit, and linking specific research questions regarding biomarker research using different statistical models.Conclusions: The final sections of the paper discuss statistical software packages and more advanced modeling capabilities of LGCMs. The online Appendix contains example code with annotation from two statistical programs for the LCGM.

  19. Process-based modeling of species' responses to climate change - a proof of concept using western North American trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. E.; Merow, C.; Record, S.; Menlove, J.; Gray, A.; Cundiff, J.; McMahon, S.; Enquist, B. J.

    2013-12-01

    Current attempts to forecast how species' distributions will change in response to climate change suffer under a fundamental trade-off: between modeling many species superficially vs. few species in detail (between correlative vs. mechanistic models). The goals of this talk are two-fold: first, we present a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, dynamic range modeling (DRM), for building process-based forecasts of many species' distributions at a time, designed to address the trade-off between detail and number of distribution forecasts. In contrast to 'species distribution modeling' or 'niche modeling', which uses only species' occurrence data and environmental data, DRMs draw upon demographic data, abundance data, trait data, occurrence data, and GIS layers of climate in a single framework to account for two processes known to influence range dynamics - demography and dispersal. The vision is to use extensive databases on plant demography, distributions, and traits - in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network, the Forest Inventory and Analysis database (FIA), and the International Tree Ring Data Bank - to develop DRMs for North American trees. Second, we present preliminary results from building the core submodel of a DRM - an integral projection model (IPM) - for a sample of dominant tree species in western North America. IPMs are used to infer demographic niches - i.e., the set of environmental conditions under which population growth rate is positive - and project population dynamics through time. Based on >550,000 data points derived from FIA for nine tree species in western North America, we show IPM-based models of their current and future distributions, and discuss how IPMs can be used to forecast future forest productivity, mortality patterns, and inform efforts at assisted migration.

  20. Corporate Social Responsibility And Islamic Business Organizations: A Proposed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rusnah Muhamad

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR has been of growing concern among business communities in recent years. Various corporate leaders maintain that business is considered to contribute fully to the society if it is effi cient, profi table and socially responsible. Islam is considered as addin (a way of life, thus, providing comprehensive guidelines in every aspects of the believers’ life. It is the aim of this paper to propose an Islamic model of corporate social responsibility based on human relationships with the God (hablun min’Allah; with other fellow human being (hablun min’an-nas and with the environment.Keywords : Corporate Social Responsibility, Islamic Business Organization

  1. Analytical models of optical response in one-dimensional semiconductors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedersen, Thomas Garm, E-mail: tgp@nano.aau.dk

    2015-09-04

    The quantum mechanical description of the optical properties of crystalline materials typically requires extensive numerical computation. Including excitonic and non-perturbative field effects adds to the complexity. In one dimension, however, the analysis simplifies and optical spectra can be computed exactly. In this paper, we apply the Wannier exciton formalism to derive analytical expressions for the optical response in four cases of increasing complexity. Thus, we start from free carriers and, in turn, switch on electrostatic fields and electron–hole attraction and, finally, analyze the combined influence of these effects. In addition, the optical response of impurity-localized excitons is discussed. - Highlights: • Optical response of one-dimensional semiconductors including excitons. • Analytical model of excitonic Franz–Keldysh effect. • Computation of optical response of impurity-localized excitons.

  2. Latent viral immune inflammatory response model for chronic multisymptom illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Sean R; Jensen, Susan; Gil-Rivas, Virginia; Goolkasian, Paula

    2013-03-01

    A latent viral immune inflammatory response (LVIIR) model is presented which integrates factors that contribute to chronic multisymptom illness (CMI) in both the veteran and civilian populations. The LVIIR model for CMI results from an integration of clinical experience with a review of the literature in four distinct areas: (1) studies of idiopathic multisymptom illness in the veteran population including two decades of research on Gulf War I veterans with CMI, (2) new evidence supporting the existence of chronic inflammatory responses to latent viral antigens and the effect these responses may have on the nervous system, (3) recent discoveries concerning the role of vitamin D in maintaining normal innate and adaptive immunity including suppression of latent viruses and regulation of the immune inflammatory response, and (4) the detrimental effects of extreme chronic repetitive stress (ECRS) on the immune and nervous systems. The LVIIR model describes the pathophysiology of a pathway to CMI and presents a new direction for the clinical assessment of CMI that includes the use of neurological signs from a physical exam, objective laboratory data, and a new proposed latent viral antigen-antibody imaging technique for the peripheral and central nervous system. The LVIIR model predicts that CMI can be treated by a focus on reversal of immune system impairment, suppression of latent viruses and their antigens, and healing of nervous system tissue damaged by chronic inflammation associated with latent viral antigens and by ECRS. In addition, the LVIIR model suggests that maintaining optimal serum 25 OH vitamin D levels will maximize immune system suppression of latent viruses and their antigens and will minimize immune system inflammation. This model also emphasizes the importance of decreasing ECRS to improve immune system function and to minimize nervous system injury from excess serum glucocorticoid levels. The proposed model supports growing evidence that increasing

  3. Chronological objects in demographic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans J. Willekens

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Calendar time, age and duration are chronological objects. They represent an instant or a time period. Age and duration are usually expressed in units with varying lengths. The number of days in a month or a year depends on the position on the calendar. The units are also not homogeneous and the structure influences measurement. One solution, common in demography, is to use units that are large enough for the results not to be seriously affected by differences in length and structure. Another approach is to take the idiosyncrasy of calendars into account and to work directly with calendar dates. The technology that enables logical and arithmetic operations on dates is available. OBJECTIVE To illustrate logical and arithmetic operations on dates and conversions between time measurements. METHODS Software packages include utilities to process dates. I use existing and a few new utilities in R to illustrate operations on dates and conversions between calendar dates and elapsed time since a reference moment or a reference event. Three demographic applications are presented. The first is the impact of preferences for dates and days on demographic indicators. The second is event history analysis with time-varying covariates. The third is microsimulation of life histories in continuous time. CONCLUSIONS The technology exists to perform operations directly on dates, enabling more precise calculations of duration and elapsed time in demographic analysis. It eliminates the need for (a approximations and (b transformations of dates, such as Century Month Code, that are convenient for computing durations but are a barrier to interpretation. Operations on dates, such as the computation of age, should consider time units of varying length.

  4. A Computational Model of Cellular Response to Modulated Radiation Fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMahon, Stephen J., E-mail: stephen.mcmahon@qub.ac.uk [Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Butterworth, Karl T. [Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); McGarry, Conor K. [Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Radiotherapy Physics, Northern Ireland Cancer Centre, Belfast Health and Social Care Trust, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Trainor, Colman [Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); O' Sullivan, Joe M. [Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Clinical Oncology, Northern Ireland Cancer Centre, Belfast Health and Social Care Trust, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Hounsell, Alan R. [Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Radiotherapy Physics, Northern Ireland Cancer Centre, Belfast Health and Social Care Trust, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Prise, Kevin M. [Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To develop a model to describe the response of cell populations to spatially modulated radiation exposures of relevance to advanced radiotherapies. Materials and Methods: A Monte Carlo model of cellular radiation response was developed. This model incorporated damage from both direct radiation and intercellular communication including bystander signaling. The predictions of this model were compared to previously measured survival curves for a normal human fibroblast line (AGO1522) and prostate tumor cells (DU145) exposed to spatially modulated fields. Results: The model was found to be able to accurately reproduce cell survival both in populations which were directly exposed to radiation and those which were outside the primary treatment field. The model predicts that the bystander effect makes a significant contribution to cell killing even in uniformly irradiated cells. The bystander effect contribution varies strongly with dose, falling from a high of 80% at low doses to 25% and 50% at 4 Gy for AGO1522 and DU145 cells, respectively. This was verified using the inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibitor aminoguanidine to inhibit the bystander effect in cells exposed to different doses, which showed significantly larger reductions in cell killing at lower doses. Conclusions: The model presented in this work accurately reproduces cell survival following modulated radiation exposures, both in and out of the primary treatment field, by incorporating a bystander component. In addition, the model suggests that the bystander effect is responsible for a significant portion of cell killing in uniformly irradiated cells, 50% and 70% at doses of 2 Gy in AGO1522 and DU145 cells, respectively. This description is a significant departure from accepted radiobiological models and may have a significant impact on optimization of treatment planning approaches if proven to be applicable in vivo.

  5. Evolutionary shaping of demographic schedules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachter, Kenneth W.; Steinsaltz, David; Evans, Steven N.

    2014-01-01

    Evolutionary processes of natural selection may be expected to leave their mark on age patterns of survival and reproduction. Demographic theory includes three main strands—mutation accumulation, stochastic vitality, and optimal life histories. This paper reviews the three strands and, concentrating on mutation accumulation, extends a mathematical result with broad implications concerning the effect of interactions between small age-specific effects of deleterious mutant alleles. Empirical data from genomic sequencing along with prospects for combining strands of theory hold hope for future progress. PMID:25024186

  6. Dynamic Characterization and Impulse Response Modeling of Amplitude and Phase Response of Silicon Nanowires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleary, Ciaran S.; Ji, Hua; Dailey, James M.

    2013-01-01

    Amplitude and phase dynamics of silicon nanowires were measured using time-resolved spectroscopy. Time shifts of the maximum phase change and minimum amplitude as a function of pump power due to saturation of the free-carrier density were observed. A phenomenological impulse response model used...

  7. Assessing item fit for unidimensional item response theory models using residuals from estimated item response functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberman, Shelby J; Sinharay, Sandip; Chon, Kyong Hee

    2013-07-01

    Residual analysis (e.g. Hambleton & Swaminathan, Item response theory: principles and applications, Kluwer Academic, Boston, 1985; Hambleton, Swaminathan, & Rogers, Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) is a popular method to assess fit of item response theory (IRT) models. We suggest a form of residual analysis that may be applied to assess item fit for unidimensional IRT models. The residual analysis consists of a comparison of the maximum-likelihood estimate of the item characteristic curve with an alternative ratio estimate of the item characteristic curve. The large sample distribution of the residual is proved to be standardized normal when the IRT model fits the data. We compare the performance of our suggested residual to the standardized residual of Hambleton et al. (Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) in a detailed simulation study. We then calculate our suggested residuals using data from an operational test. The residuals appear to be useful in assessing the item fit for unidimensional IRT models.

  8. Functional response models to estimate feeding rates of wading birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collazo, J.A.; Gilliam, J.F.; Miranda-Castro, L.

    2010-01-01

    Forager (predator) abundance may mediate feeding rates in wading birds. Yet, when modeled, feeding rates are typically derived from the purely prey-dependent Holling Type II (HoII) functional response model. Estimates of feeding rates are necessary to evaluate wading bird foraging strategies and their role in food webs; thus, models that incorporate predator dependence warrant consideration. Here, data collected in a mangrove swamp in Puerto Rico in 1994 were reanalyzed, reporting feeding rates for mixed-species flocks after comparing fits of the HoII model, as used in the original work, to the Beddington-DeAngelis (BD) and Crowley-Martin (CM) predator-dependent models. Model CM received most support (AIC c wi = 0.44), but models BD and HoII were plausible alternatives (AIC c ??? 2). Results suggested that feeding rates were constrained by predator abundance. Reductions in rates were attributed to interference, which was consistent with the independently observed increase in aggression as flock size increased (P rates. However, inferences derived from the HoII model, as used in the original work, were sound. While Holling's Type II and other purely prey-dependent models have fostered advances in wading bird foraging ecology, evaluating models that incorporate predator dependence could lead to a more adequate description of data and processes of interest. The mechanistic bases used to derive models used here lead to biologically interpretable results and advance understanding of wading bird foraging ecology.

  9. Qualitative response models: A survey of methodology and illustrative applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nojković Aleksandra

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces econometric modeling with discrete (categorical dependent variables. Such models, commonly referred to as qualitative response (QR models, have become a standard tool of microeconometric analysis. Microeconometric research represents empirical analysis of microdata, i.e. economic information about individuals, households and firms. Microeconometrics has been most widely adopted in various fields, such as labour economics, consumer behavior, or economy of transport. The latest research shows that this methodology can also be successfully transferred to macroeconomic context and applied to time series and panel data analysis in a wider scope. .

  10. Modeling thermal/chemical/mechanical response of energetic materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baer, M.R.; Hobbs, M.L.; Gross, R.J. [and others

    1995-07-01

    An overview of modeling at Sandia National Laboratories is presented which describes coupled thermal, chemical and mechanical response of energetic materials. This modeling addresses cookoff scenarios for safety assessment studies in systems containing energetic materials. Foundation work is discussed which establishes a method for incorporating chemistry and mechanics into multidimensional analysis. Finite element analysis offers the capabilities to simultaneously resolve reactive heat transfer and structural mechanics in complex geometries. Nonlinear conduction heat transfer, with multiple step finite-rate chemistry, is resolved using a thermal finite element code. Rate equations are solved element-by-element using a modified matrix-free stiff solver This finite element software was developed for the simulation of systems requiring large numbers of finite elements. An iterative implicit scheme, based on the conjugate gradient method, is used and a hemi-cube algorithm is employed for the determination of view factors in surface-to-surface radiation transfer The critical link between the reactive heat transfer and mechanics is the introduction of an appropriate constitutive material model providing a stress-strain relationship for quasi-static mechanics analysis. This model is formally derived from bubble nucleation theory, and parameter variations of critical model parameters indicate that a small degree of decomposition leads to significant mechanical response. Coupled thermal/chemical/mechanical analysis is presented which simulates experiments designed to probe cookoff thermal-mechanical response of energetic materials.

  11. A cognitive computational model inspired by the immune system response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdo Abd Al-Hady, Mohamed; Badr, Amr Ahmed; Mostafa, Mostafa Abd Al-Azim

    2014-01-01

    The immune system has a cognitive ability to differentiate between healthy and unhealthy cells. The immune system response (ISR) is stimulated by a disorder in the temporary fuzzy state that is oscillating between the healthy and unhealthy states. However, modeling the immune system is an enormous challenge; the paper introduces an extensive summary of how the immune system response functions, as an overview of a complex topic, to present the immune system as a cognitive intelligent agent. The homogeneity and perfection of the natural immune system have been always standing out as the sought-after model we attempted to imitate while building our proposed model of cognitive architecture. The paper divides the ISR into four logical phases: setting a computational architectural diagram for each phase, proceeding from functional perspectives (input, process, and output), and their consequences. The proposed architecture components are defined by matching biological operations with computational functions and hence with the framework of the paper. On the other hand, the architecture focuses on the interoperability of main theoretical immunological perspectives (classic, cognitive, and danger theory), as related to computer science terminologies. The paper presents a descriptive model of immune system, to figure out the nature of response, deemed to be intrinsic for building a hybrid computational model based on a cognitive intelligent agent perspective and inspired by the natural biology. To that end, this paper highlights the ISR phases as applied to a case study on hepatitis C virus, meanwhile illustrating our proposed architecture perspective.

  12. Satellite image collection modeling for large area hazard emergency response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shufan; Hodgson, Michael E.

    2016-08-01

    Timely collection of critical hazard information is the key to intelligent and effective hazard emergency response decisions. Satellite remote sensing imagery provides an effective way to collect critical information. Natural hazards, however, often have large impact areas - larger than a single satellite scene. Additionally, the hazard impact area may be discontinuous, particularly in flooding or tornado hazard events. In this paper, a spatial optimization model is proposed to solve the large area satellite image acquisition planning problem in the context of hazard emergency response. In the model, a large hazard impact area is represented as multiple polygons and image collection priorities for different portion of impact area are addressed. The optimization problem is solved with an exact algorithm. Application results demonstrate that the proposed method can address the satellite image acquisition planning problem. A spatial decision support system supporting the optimization model was developed. Several examples of image acquisition problems are used to demonstrate the complexity of the problem and derive optimized solutions.

  13. Modeling size effect in the SMA response: a gradient theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabesh, Majid; Boyd, James G.; Lagoudas, Dimitris C.

    2014-03-01

    Shape memory alloys (SMAs) show size effect in their response. The critical stresses, for instance, for the start of martensite and austenite transformations are reported to increase in some SMA wires for diameters below 100 μm. Simulation of such a behavior cannot be achieved using conventional theories that lack an intrinsic length scale in their constitutive modeling. To enable the size effect, a thermodynamically consistent constitutive model is developed, that in addition to conventional internal variables of martensitic volume fraction and transformation strain, contains the spatial gradient of martensitic volume fraction as an internal variable. The developed theory is simplified for 1D cases and analytical solutions for pure bending of SMA beams are presented. The gradient model captures the size effect in the response of the studied SMA structures.

  14. Modeling auditory evoked brainstem responses to transient stimuli

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønne, Filip Munch; Dau, Torsten; Harte, James

    2012-01-01

    A quantitative model is presented that describes the formation of auditory brainstem responses (ABR) to tone pulses, clicks and rising chirps as a function of stimulation level. The model computes the convolution of the instantaneous discharge rates using the “humanized” nonlinear auditory...... of tone-pulse evoked wave-V latency with frequency but underestimates the level dependency of the tone-pulse as well as click-evoked latency values. Furthermore, the model correctly predicts the nonlinear wave-V amplitude behavior in response to the chirp stimulation both as a function of chirp sweeping...... rate and level. Overall, the results support the hypothesis that the pattern of ABR generation is strongly affected by the nonlinear and dispersive processes in the cochlea....

  15. Modeling Employee Social Responsibility as an Antecedent to Competitiveness Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kimeli Cheruiyot

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The study explained a model of employee social responsibility (ESR as an antecedent to corporate competitiveness. It hypothesizes that ESR has significant effect on employee competitiveness (EC. Questionnaires were administered to a sample of 700 employees selected from a population of 5,595 from 20 classified hotels in the coastal region of Kenya using proportionate and systematic random sampling methods. Structural equation model was used for model specification and hypotheses testing. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed on six and four constructs representing ESR and EC, respectively. Overall, a negative effect of ESR on EC was found with un-standardized β estimates = −.516; SE = .071, p = .000. Accordingly, increase in employee corporate social responsibility (CSR is associated with decline in EC. This was potentially paradoxical because employees demonstrated job and organization commitment and retention intention despite poor ESR practices.

  16. Functionally Unidimensional Item Response Models for Multivariate Binary Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ip, Edward H; Molenberghs, Geert; Chen, Shyh-Huei; Goegebeur, Yuri; De Boeck, Paul

    2013-07-01

    The problem of fitting unidimensional item response models to potentially multidimensional data has been extensively studied. The focus of this article is on response data that have a strong dimension but also contain minor nuisance dimensions. Fitting a unidimensional model to such multidimensional data is believed to result in ability estimates that represent a combination of the major and minor dimensions. We conjecture that the underlying dimension for the fitted unidimensional model, which we call the functional dimension, represents a nonlinear projection. In this article we investigate 2 issues: (a) can a proposed nonlinear projection track the functional dimension well, and (b) what are the biases in the ability estimate and the associated standard error when estimating the functional dimension? To investigate the second issue, the nonlinear projection is used as an evaluative tool. An example regarding a construct of desire for physical competency is used to illustrate the functional unidimensional approach.

  17. Adiabatic Floquet model for the optical response in femtosecond filaments

    CERN Document Server

    Hofmann, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The standard model of femtosecond filamentation is based on phenomenological assumptions which suggest that the ionization-induced carriers can be treated as free according to the Drude model, while the nonlinear response of the bound carriers follows the all-optical Kerr effect. Here, we demonstrate that the additional plasma generated at a multiphoton resonance dominates the saturation of the nonlinear refractive index. Since resonances are not captured by the standard model, we propose a modification of the latter in which ionization enhancements can be accounted for by an ionization rate obtained from non-Hermitian Floquet theory. In the adiabatic regime of long pulse envelopes, this augmented standard model is in excellent agreement with direct quantum mechanical simulations. Since our proposal maintains the structure of the standard model, it can be easily incorporated into existing codes of filament simulation.

  18. Computational modeling of drug response with applications to neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herwig, Ralf

    2014-12-01

    The development of novel high-throughput technologies has opened up the opportunity to deeply characterize patient tissues at various molecular levels and has given rise to a paradigm shift in medicine towards personalized therapies. Computational analysis plays a pivotal role in integrating the various genome data and understanding the cellular response to a drug. Based on that data, molecular models can be constructed that incorporate the known downstream effects of drug-targeted receptor molecules and that predict optimal therapy decisions. In this article, we describe the different steps in the conceptual framework of computational modeling. We review resources that hold information on molecular pathways that build the basis for constructing the model interaction maps, highlight network analysis concepts that have been helpful in identifying predictive disease patterns, and introduce the basic concepts of kinetic modeling. Finally, we illustrate this framework with selected studies related to the modeling of important target pathways affected by drugs.

  19. Modeling the anisotropic shock response of single-crystal RDX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luscher, Darby

    Explosives initiate under impacts whose energy, if distributed homogeneously throughout the material, translates to temperature increases that are insufficient to drive the rapid chemistry observed. Heterogeneous thermomechanical interactions at the meso-scale (i.e. between single-crystal and macroscale) leads to the formation of localized hot spots. Direct numerical simulations of mesoscale response can contribute to our understanding of hot spots if they include the relevant deformation mechanisms that are essential to the nonlinear thermomechanical response of explosive molecular crystals. We have developed a single-crystal model for the finite deformation thermomechanical response of cyclotrimethylene trinitramine (RDX). Because of the low symmetry of RDX, a complete description of nonlinear thermoelasticity requires a careful decomposition of free energy into components that represent the pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) response and the coupling between isochoric deformation and both deviatoric and hydrostatic stresses. An equation-of-state (EOS) based on Debye theory that defines the PVT response was constructed using experimental data and density functional theory calculations. This EOS replicates the equilibrium states of phase transformation from alpha to gamma polymorphs observed in static high-pressure experiments. Lattice thermoelastic parameters defining the coupled isochoric free energy were obtained from molecular dynamics calculations and previous experimental data. Anisotropic crystal plasticity is modeled using Orowan's expression relating slip rate to dislocation density and velocity. Details of the theory will be presented followed by discussion of simulations of flyer plate impact experiments, including recent experiments diagnosed with in situ X-ray diffraction at the Advanced Photon Source. Impact conditions explored within the experimental effort have spanned shock pressures ranging from 1-10 GPa for several crystallographic orientations

  20. Nonignorable data in IRT models: Polytomous responses and response propensity models with covariates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, C.A.W.; Pimentel, J.L.; Lamers, S.M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Missing data usually present special problems for statistical analyses, especially when the data are not missing at random, that is, when the ignorability principle defined by Rubin (1976) does not hold. Recently, a substantial number of articles have been published on model-based procedures to hand

  1. Some Demographic Changes in the Population of Montenegro with the Projection of Future Demographic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Rajović

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Dramatic demographic changes through which in recent decade’s passes Montenegrin society, the consequences arising from the new realities require a serious socio-political engagement. Process of population aging, that began the seventies of the 20th century, represents a significant problem. The process of demographic change was accompanied by an internal migration to major urban centers, primarily Podgorica and Montenegrin coast, leading to emptying the interior of Montenegro. Unfortunately, this development of the population structure of Montenegro opens a series of questions and challenges that would the creators of the future you should put high on the scale of its priorities. In this text we will point out on change of total number of citizens of Montenegro according to the base and chain indexes of 1921-2011 and population in Montenegro 2016–2091 (cohort model projections.

  2. Entropy model of dissipative structure on corporate social responsibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zuozhi; Jiang, Jie

    2017-06-01

    Enterprise is prompted to fulfill the social responsibility requirement by the internal and external environment. In this complex system, some studies suggest that firms have an orderly or chaotic entropy exchange behavior. Based on the theory of dissipative structure, this paper constructs the entropy index system of corporate social responsibility(CSR) and explores the dissipative structure of CSR through Brusselator model criterion. Picking up listed companies of the equipment manufacturing, the research shows that CSR has positive incentive to negative entropy and promotes the stability of dissipative structure. In short, the dissipative structure of CSR has a positive impact on the interests of stakeholders and corporate social images.

  3. Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Mai

    Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.

  4. Composite likelihood estimation of demographic parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrigan Daniel

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most existing likelihood-based methods for fitting historical demographic models to DNA sequence polymorphism data to do not scale feasibly up to the level of whole-genome data sets. Computational economies can be achieved by incorporating two forms of pseudo-likelihood: composite and approximate likelihood methods. Composite likelihood enables scaling up to large data sets because it takes the product of marginal likelihoods as an estimator of the likelihood of the complete data set. This approach is especially useful when a large number of genomic regions constitutes the data set. Additionally, approximate likelihood methods can reduce the dimensionality of the data by summarizing the information in the original data by either a sufficient statistic, or a set of statistics. Both composite and approximate likelihood methods hold promise for analyzing large data sets or for use in situations where the underlying demographic model is complex and has many parameters. This paper considers a simple demographic model of allopatric divergence between two populations, in which one of the population is hypothesized to have experienced a founder event, or population bottleneck. A large resequencing data set from human populations is summarized by the joint frequency spectrum, which is a matrix of the genomic frequency spectrum of derived base frequencies in two populations. A Bayesian Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMCMC method for parameter estimation is developed that uses both composite and likelihood methods and is applied to the three different pairwise combinations of the human population resequence data. The accuracy of the method is also tested on data sets sampled from a simulated population model with known parameters. Results The Bayesian MCMCMC method also estimates the ratio of effective population size for the X chromosome versus that of the autosomes. The method is shown to estimate, with reasonable

  5. Modeling the frequency response of microwave radiometers with QUCS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zonca, A.; Roucaries, B.; Williams, B.; Rubin, I.; D'Arcangelo, O.; Meinhold, P.; Lubin, P.; Franceschet, C.; Jahn, S.; Mennella, A.; Bersanelli, M.

    2010-12-01

    Characterization of the frequency response of coherent radiometric receivers is a key element in estimating the flux of astrophysical emissions, since the measured signal depends on the convolution of the source spectral emission with the instrument band shape. Laboratory Radio Frequency (RF) measurements of the instrument bandpass often require complex test setups and are subject to a number of systematic effects driven by thermal issues and impedance matching, particularly if cryogenic operation is involved. In this paper we present an approach to modeling radiometers bandpasses by integrating simulations and RF measurements of individual components. This method is based on QUCS (Quasi Universal Circuit Simulator), an open-source circuit simulator, which gives the flexibility of choosing among the available devices, implementing new analytical software models or using measured S-parameters. Therefore an independent estimate of the instrument bandpass is achieved using standard individual component measurements and validated analytical simulations. In order to automate the process of preparing input data, running simulations and exporting results we developed the Python package python-qucs and released it under GNU Public License. We discuss, as working cases, bandpass response modeling of the COFE and Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) radiometers and compare results obtained with QUCS and with a commercial circuit simulator software. The main purpose of bandpass modeling in COFE is to optimize component matching, while in LFI they represent the best estimation of frequency response, since end-to-end measurements were strongly affected by systematic effects.

  6. Modeling the frequency response of microwave radiometers with QUCS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zonca, A; Williams, B; Rubin, I; Meinhold, P; Lubin, P [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Roucaries, B [Universite Paris-Est, Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussees, 75732 Paris (France); D' Arcangelo, O [IFP-CNR, via Cozzi 53, 20125 Milano (Italy); Franceschet, C; Mennella, A; Bersanelli, M [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Jahn, S, E-mail: zonca@deepspace.ucsb.edu [Infineon Technologies AG, Am Campeon 1-12, 85579 Neubiberg, Munich (Germany)

    2010-12-15

    Characterization of the frequency response of coherent radiometric receivers is a key element in estimating the flux of astrophysical emissions, since the measured signal depends on the convolution of the source spectral emission with the instrument band shape. Laboratory Radio Frequency (RF) measurements of the instrument bandpass often require complex test setups and are subject to a number of systematic effects driven by thermal issues and impedance matching, particularly if cryogenic operation is involved. In this paper we present an approach to modeling radiometers bandpasses by integrating simulations and RF measurements of individual components. This method is based on QUCS (Quasi Universal Circuit Simulator), an open-source circuit simulator, which gives the flexibility of choosing among the available devices, implementing new analytical software models or using measured S-parameters. Therefore an independent estimate of the instrument bandpass is achieved using standard individual component measurements and validated analytical simulations. In order to automate the process of preparing input data, running simulations and exporting results we developed the Python package python-qucs and released it under GNU Public License. We discuss, as working cases, bandpass response modeling of the COFE and Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) radiometers and compare results obtained with QUCS and with a commercial circuit simulator software. The main purpose of bandpass modeling in COFE is to optimize component matching, while in LFI they represent the best estimation of frequency response, since end-to-end measurements were strongly affected by systematic effects.

  7. Dynamic Response of Linear Mechanical Systems Modeling, Analysis and Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Angeles, Jorge

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic Response of Linear Mechanical Systems: Modeling, Analysis and Simulation can be utilized for a variety of courses, including junior and senior-level vibration and linear mechanical analysis courses. The author connects, by means of a rigorous, yet intuitive approach, the theory of vibration with the more general theory of systems. The book features: A seven-step modeling technique that helps structure the rather unstructured process of mechanical-system modeling A system-theoretic approach to deriving the time response of the linear mathematical models of mechanical systems The modal analysis and the time response of two-degree-of-freedom systems—the first step on the long way to the more elaborate study of multi-degree-of-freedom systems—using the Mohr circle Simple, yet powerful simulation algorithms that exploit the linearity of the system for both single- and multi-degree-of-freedom systems Examples and exercises that rely on modern computational toolboxes for both numerical and symbolic compu...

  8. Climate Sensitivity and Solar Cycle Response in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, M.; Lin, L.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate sensitivity, broadly defined, is a measure of the response of the climate system to the changes of external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and solar radiation, including climate feedback processes. General circulation models provide a means to quantitatively incorporate various feedback processes, such as water-vapor, cloud and albedo feedbacks. Less attention is devoted so far to the role of the oceans in significantly affecting these processes and hence the modelled transient climate sensitivity. Here we show that the oceanic mixing plays an important role in modifying the multi-decadal to centennial oscillations of the sea surface temperature, which in turn affect the derived climate sensitivity at various phases of the oscillations. The eleven-year solar cycle forcing is used to calibrate the response of the climate system. The GISS-EH coupled atmosphere-ocean model was run twice in coupled mode for more than 2000 model years, each with a different value for the ocean eddy mixing parameter. In both runs, there is a prominent low-frequency oscillation with a period of 300-500 years, and depending on the phase of such an oscillation, the derived climate gain factor varies by a factor of 2. The run with the value of the eddy ocean mixing parameter that is half that used in IPCC AR4 study has the more realistic low-frequency variability in SST and in the derived response to the known solar-cycle forcing.

  9. Neuronal modelling of baroreflex response to orthostatic stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samin, Azfar

    The accelerations experienced in aerial combat can cause pilot loss of consciousness (GLOC) due to a critical reduction in cerebral blood circulation. The development of smart protective equipment requires understanding of how the brain processes blood pressure (BP) information in response to acceleration. We present a biologically plausible model of the Baroreflex to investigate the neural correlates of short-term BP control under acceleration or orthostatic stress. The neuronal network model, which employs an integrate-and-fire representation of a biological neuron, comprises the sensory, motor, and the central neural processing areas that form the Baroreflex. Our modelling strategy is to test hypotheses relating to the encoding mechanisms of multiple sensory inputs to the nucleus tractus solitarius (NTS), the site of central neural processing. The goal is to run simulations and reproduce model responses that are consistent with the variety of available experimental data. Model construction and connectivity are inspired by the available anatomical and neurophysiological evidence that points to a barotopic organization in the NTS, and the presence of frequency-dependent synaptic depression, which provides a mechanism for generating non-linear local responses in NTS neurons that result in quantifiable dynamic global baroreflex responses. The entire physiological range of BP and rate of change of BP variables is encoded in a palisade of NTS neurons in that the spike responses approximate Gaussian 'tuning' curves. An adapting weighted-average decoding scheme computes the motor responses and a compensatory signal regulates the heart rate (HR). Model simulations suggest that: (1) the NTS neurons can encode the hydrostatic pressure difference between two vertically separated sensory receptor regions at +Gz, and use changes in that difference for the regulation of HR; (2) even though NTS neurons do not fire with a cardiac rhythm seen in the afferents, pulse

  10. Accounting for rate variation among lineages in comparative demographic analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Andrew G.; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Malaney, Jason L.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

    2014-01-01

    Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed-clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline-plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies.

  11. Using Data Augmentation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the Estimation of Unfolding Response Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.; Junker, Brian W.

    2003-01-01

    Unfolding response models, a class of item response theory (IRT) models that assume a unimodal item response function (IRF), are often used for the measurement of attitudes. Verhelst and Verstralen (1993)and Andrich and Luo (1993) independently developed unfolding response models by relating the observed responses to a more common monotone IRT…

  12. Computational fluid dynamics modeling for emergency preparedness and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, R.L.; Albritton, J.R.; Ermak, D.L.; Kim, J.

    1995-02-01

    Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has (CFD) has played an increasing in the improvement of atmospheric dispersion modeling. This is because many dispersion models are now driven by meteorological fields generated from CFD models or, in numerical weather prediction`s terminology, prognostic models. Whereas most dispersion models typically involve one or a few scalar, uncoupled equations, the prognostic equations are a set of highly-couple equations whose solution requires a significant level of computational power. Recent advances in computer hardware and software have enabled modestly-priced, high performance, workstations to exhibit the equivalent computation power of some mainframes. Thus desktop-class machines that were limited to performing dispersion calculations driven by diagnostic wind fields may now be used to calculate complex flows using prognostic CFD models. The Release and Advisory Capability (ARAC) program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has, for the past several years, taken advantage of the improvements in hardware technology to develop a national emergency response capability based on executing diagnostic models on workstations. Diagnostic models that provide wind fields are, in general, simple to implement, robust and require minimal time for execution. Because these models typically contain little physics beyond mass-conservation, their performance is extremely sensitive to the quantity and quality of input meteorological data and, in spite of their utility, can be applied with confidence to only modestly complex flows. We are now embarking on a development program to incorporate prognostic models to generate, in real-time, the meteorological fields for the dispersion models. In contrast to diagnostic models, prognostic models are physically-based and are capable of incorporating many physical processes to treat highly complex flow scenarios.

  13. Spatial scale dependency of the modelled climatic response to deforestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Longobardi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scale land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we determine effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is registered over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. For all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower surface air temperature, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation, cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to generate a previously not reported net drawdown of CO2 from the atmosphere. Our results support previous indications of the importance of changes in cloud cover in the modelled temperature response to deforestation at low latitudes. They also show the complex interaction between soil carbon dynamics and climate and the role this plays on the climatic response to land cover change.

  14. Model of optical response of marine aerosols to Forbush decreases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bondo

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to elucidate the effect of galactic cosmic rays on cloud formation, we investigate the optical response of marine aerosols to Forbush decreases – abrupt decreases in galactic cosmic rays – by means of modeling. We vary the nucleation rate of new aerosols, in a sectional coagulation and condensation model, according to changes in ionization by the Forbush decrease. From the resulting size distribution we then calculate the aerosol optical thickness and Angstrom exponent, for the wavelength pairs 350, 450 nm and 550, 900 nm. In the cases where the output parameters from the model seem to compare best with atmospheric observations we observe, for the shorter wavelength pair, a change in Angstrom exponent, following the Forbush Decrease, of −6 to +3%. In some cases we also observe a delay in the change of Angstrom exponent, compared to the maximum of the Forbush decrease, which is caused by different sensitivities of the probing wavelengths to changes in aerosol number concentration and size. For the long wavelengths these changes are generally smaller. The types and magnitude of change is investigated for a suite of nucleation rates, condensable gas production rates, and aerosol loss rates. Furthermore we compare the model output with observations of 5 of the largest Forbush decreases after year 2000. For the 350, 450 nm pair we use AERONET data and find a comparable change in signal while the Angstrom Exponent is lower in the model than in the data, due to AERONET being mainly sampled over land. For 550, 900 nm we compare with both AERONET and MODIS and find little to no response in both model and observations. In summary our study shows that the optical properties of aerosols show a distinct response to Forbush Decreases, assuming that the nucleation of fresh aerosols is driven by ions. Shorter wavelengths seem more favorable for observing these effects and great care should be taken when analyzing observations, in order to avoid

  15. Response Surface Modelling of Electrosprayed Polyacrylonitrile Nanoparticle Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanaz Khademolqorani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Electrospraying (electrohydrodynamic spraying is a method of liquid atomization by electrical forces. Spraying solutions or suspensions allow production of fine particles, down to nanometer size. These particles are interesting for a wide variety of applications, thanks to their unprecedented chemical and physical behaviour in comparison to their bulk form. Knowledge of the particle size in powders is important in many studies employing nanoparticles. In this paper, the effect of some process parameters on the size of electrosprayed polyacrylonitrile particles is presented in the form of response surface model. The model is achieved by employing a factorial design to evaluate the influence of parameters on the polyacrylonitrile nanoparticle size and response surface methodology. Four electrospraying parameters, namely, applied voltage, electrospraying solution concentration, flow rate, and syringe needle diameter were considered.

  16. Dose-time-response modeling using negative binomial distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Munmun; Choudhury, Kanak; Islam, M M; Matin, M A

    2013-01-01

    People exposed to certain diseases are required to be treated with a safe and effective dose level of a drug. In epidemiological studies to find out an effective dose level, different dose levels are applied to the exposed and a certain number of cures is observed. Negative binomial distribution is considered to fit overdispersed Poisson count data. This study investigates the time effect on the response at different time points as well as at different dose levels. The point estimation and confidence bands for ED(100p)(t) and LT(100p)(d) are formulated in closed form for the proposed dose-time-response model with the negative binomial distribution. Numerical illustrations are carried out in order to check the performance level of the proposed model.

  17. Spatial Associations Between Contaminated Land and Socio Demographics in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Russell; Ericson, Bret; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw

    2015-10-27

    Associations between contaminated land and socio demographics are well documented in high-income countries. In low- and middle-income countries, however, little is known about the extent of contaminated land and possible demographic correlations. This is an important yet sparsely researched topic with potentially significant public health implications as exposure to pollution remains a leading source of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. In this study, we review the associations between several socio demographic factors (population, population density, unemployment, education, and literacy) and contaminated sites in Ghana. Within this context, both correlation and association intend to show the relationship between two variables, namely contaminated sites and socio demographics. Aggregated district level 2010 census data from Ghana Statistical Service and contaminated site location data from Pure Earth's Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) were spatially evaluated using the number of sites per kilometer squared within districts as the unit of measurement. We found a low to medium positive correlation (ρ range: 0.285 to 0.478) between contaminated sites and the following socio demographics: higher population density, higher unemployment, greater education, and higher literacy rate. These results support previous studies and suggest that several socio demographic factors may be reasonably accurate predictors of contaminated site locations. More research and targeted data collection is needed to better understand these associations with the ultimate goal of developing a predictive model.

  18. Spatial Associations Between Contaminated Land and Socio Demographics in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Dowling

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Associations between contaminated land and socio demographics are well documented in high-income countries. In low- and middle-income countries, however, little is known about the extent of contaminated land and possible demographic correlations. This is an important yet sparsely researched topic with potentially significant public health implications as exposure to pollution remains a leading source of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. In this study, we review the associations between several socio demographic factors (population, population density, unemployment, education, and literacy and contaminated sites in Ghana. Within this context, both correlation and association intend to show the relationship between two variables, namely contaminated sites and socio demographics. Aggregated district level 2010 census data from Ghana Statistical Service and contaminated site location data from Pure Earth’s Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP were spatially evaluated using the number of sites per kilometer squared within districts as the unit of measurement. We found a low to medium positive correlation (ρ range: 0.285 to 0.478 between contaminated sites and the following socio demographics: higher population density, higher unemployment, greater education, and higher literacy rate. These results support previous studies and suggest that several socio demographic factors may be reasonably accurate predictors of contaminated site locations. More research and targeted data collection is needed to better understand these associations with the ultimate goal of developing a predictive model.

  19. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR OF ECOLOGICAL POLICY

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Demographic factor of ecological policy is analyzed. Анализируется демографическая составляющая экологической политики. Аналізується демографічна складова екологічної політики.

  20. SELECTED DETERMINANTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC SAFETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisława Ostasiewicz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents, in a simplifi ed manner, selected theories of population to explain the current trends of population development in Poland and throughout the world. The aim of the article is to present the demographic threats that have emerged in the last eighty years. Prognosticated age structures have also been predicted. Signifi cant diff erences between the structure of the population now and the future have been indicated, particularly regarding the ageing of the population. Against the background of global transformations analyzes of changes in Poland have been conducted. The comparison shows that changes in Poland are highly analogous to transformations around the world, such as declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. These changes cause ageing of the population, which could result in the collapse of the functioning of the labor market and the pension system as it currently exists.

  1. Coupled vibro-acoustic model updating using frequency response functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nehete, D. V.; Modak, S. V.; Gupta, K.

    2016-03-01

    Interior noise in cavities of motorized vehicles is of increasing significance due to the lightweight design of these structures. Accurate coupled vibro-acoustic FE models of such cavities are required so as to allow a reliable design and analysis. It is, however, experienced that the vibro-acoustic predictions using these models do not often correlate acceptably well with the experimental measurements and hence require model updating. Both the structural and the acoustic parameters addressing the stiffness as well as the damping modeling inaccuracies need to be considered simultaneously in the model updating framework in order to obtain an accurate estimate of these parameters. It is also noted that the acoustic absorption properties are generally frequency dependent. This makes use of modal data based methods for updating vibro-acoustic FE models difficult. In view of this, the present paper proposes a method based on vibro-acoustic frequency response functions that allow updating of a coupled FE model by considering simultaneously the parameters associated with both the structural as well as the acoustic model of the cavity. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through numerical studies on a 3D rectangular box cavity with a flexible plate. Updating parameters related to the material property, stiffness of joints between the plate and the rectangular cavity and the properties of absorbing surfaces of the acoustic cavity are considered. The robustness of the method under presence of noise is also studied.

  2. The Kawa model: the power of culturally responsive occupational therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwama, Michael K; Thomson, Nicole A; Macdonald, Rona M

    2009-01-01

    The Kawa (Japanese for river) model, developed by Japanese and Canadian rehabilitation professionals, presents an important and novel alternative to contemporary 'Western' models of rehabilitation. Rather than focussing primarily on the individual client, the Kawa model focusses on 'contexts' that shape and influence the realities and challenges of peoples' dayto-day lives. The first substantial model of rehabilitation practice developed outside of the West illuminates the transactional quality of human-environment dynamics and the importance of inter-relations of self and others through the metaphor of a river's flow. The model's reflection of Eastern thought and views of nature presents a useful point of comparison to familiar rational and mechanical explanations of occupation and well-being. In this article, the rationale for an alternative model in rehabilitation is presented, followed by an explanation of the structure and concepts of the Kawa model. Implications for culturally responsive practice as well as the model's significance to the advancement of culturally safe rehabilitation worldwide are discussed.

  3. An Overview of Soil Models for Earthquake Response Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halida Yunita

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes can damage thousands of buildings and infrastructure as well as cause the loss of thousands of lives. During an earthquake, the damage to buildings is mostly caused by the effect of local soil conditions. Depending on the soil type, the earthquake waves propagating from the epicenter to the ground surface will result in various behaviors of the soil. Several studies have been conducted to accurately obtain the soil response during an earthquake. The soil model used must be able to characterize the stress-strain behavior of the soil during the earthquake. This paper compares equivalent linear and nonlinear soil model responses. Analysis was performed on two soil types, Site Class D and Site Class E. An equivalent linear soil model leads to a constant value of shear modulus, while in a nonlinear soil model, the shear modulus changes constantly,depending on the stress level, and shows inelastic behavior. The results from a comparison of both soil models are displayed in the form of maximum acceleration profiles and stress-strain curves.

  4. Demographic Ageing on Croatian Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Nejašmić

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the changes in the population structure of the Croatian islands by age, warns of the degree of ageing, provides spatial differentiation of this process and presents perspective of ageing at the level of settlement. Typing of population ageing is based on scores and has seven types. The total island population in 2011 belongs to the type 5 – very old population. Almost a half of the settlements (out of 303 have been affected by the highest levels of ageing (types 6 and 7. It was found that a quarter of island settlements will become “dead villages” in a foreseeable future; most of them are on small islands but also in the interior of larger islands. These are villages decaying in every respect, in which the way of life, as we know it, veins and goes out. The present ageing villagers are their last residents in most cases. Eve¬rything suggests that demographic recovery of the islands is not possible with the forces in situ. It is important to strike a balance between the needs and opportunities in order to successfully organize life on the islands, both small and large ones, and the fact is that there is a continuing disparity, which is especially profound in small islands. A sensitive and selective approach is needed to overcome the unfavourable demographic trends. Therefore it is necessary to respect the particularities of indi¬vidual islands and island groups in devising development strategy. Solutions to the problems must come of the local and wider community in synergy with relevant professional and scientific institutions. However, if the solutions are not found or measures do not give results, if the islands are left to desorganisation and senilisation, a part of the islands will become a wasteland. With regard to the value of this area whose wealth are people in the first place, this would be an intolerable civilization decline.

  5. EVALUATING EMERGENCY RESPONSE MODELS OF RADIOLOGICAL DISPERSION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN

    OpenAIRE

    Dyer, L.L.; Pascoe, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: Operational airborne releases of trace quantities of the radioactive noble gas Ar-41 from the HIFAR Nuclear Research Reactor located in Sydney, Australia are valuable for evaluating emergency response models incorporating radiological dispersion. The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), where the reactor is located, has a network of meteorological stations and GR-150 environmental gamma dose detectors placed in complex terrain within a 5km radius ...

  6. Modeling physiological responses of soil microbes to drought (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoni, S.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.; Schaeffer, S. M.; Schimel, J.

    2013-12-01

    Biogeochemical models predict soil carbon (C) under varying environmental conditions, aiming to disentangle the effects of predicted changes in temperature and moisture regimes on C storage. While much work focuses on temperature sensitivity of decomposition, relatively less is known about decomposer responses to changes in soil moisture. Heterotrophic respiration is known to decline as soils become drier, but the underlying physiological mechanisms are not clear and rarely accounted for in models. In particular, we ask: what are the effects of different drought response strategies on C storage potential and the shape of the respiration-moisture relation? We have developed a process-based model to address these questions, including the main physiological responses thought to play a role under varying moisture conditions: i) dormancy, ii) patterns of extra-cellular enzyme production, and iii) osmoregulation. We show that these different drought response strategies play a major role in the long-term partitioning of soil C among stable and labile pools. In very dry conditions, microbes shifting to dormant state tend to favor long-term (steady state) accumulation of stable C at the expenses of microbial biomass, while increasing investment in enzymes leads to accumulation of dissolved organic C, which in turn may partly overcome the diffusion limitations imposed by dry soils. In contrast, entering a dormant state early during a dry down allows microbes to save C by respiring less (due to lowered active biomass), avoid C starvation when substrate diffusion breaks down, and use available C for growth and maintenance rather than osmoregulation. Hence, this strategy explains why little osmolytes are found in microbial biomass subjected to experimental drought. We conclude by highlighting how our results can be implemented in Earth System Models without excessively increasing their complexity.

  7. Analytical modelling of regional radiotherapy dose response of lung

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangkyu; Stroian, Gabriela; Kopek, Neil; AlBahhar, Mahmood; Seuntjens, Jan; El Naqa, Issam

    2012-06-01

    Knowledge of the dose-response of radiation-induced lung disease (RILD) is necessary for optimization of radiotherapy (RT) treatment plans involving thoracic cavity irradiation. This study models the time-dependent relationship between local radiation dose and post-treatment lung tissue damage measured by computed tomography (CT) imaging. Fifty-eight follow-up diagnostic CT scans from 21 non-small-cell lung cancer patients were examined. The extent of RILD was segmented on the follow-up CT images based on the increase of physical density relative to the pre-treatment CT image. The segmented RILD was locally correlated with dose distribution calculated by analytical anisotropic algorithm and the Monte Carlo method to generate the corresponding dose-response curves. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model was fit to the dose-response curves at six post-RT time periods, and temporal change in the LKB parameters was recorded. In this study, we observed significant correlation between the probability of lung tissue damage and the local dose for 96% of the follow-up studies. Dose-injury correlation at the first three months after RT was significantly different from later follow-up periods in terms of steepness and threshold dose as estimated from the LKB model. Dependence of dose response on superior-inferior tumour position was also observed. The time-dependent analytical modelling of RILD might provide better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the disease and could potentially be applied to improve inverse treatment planning optimization.

  8. Mathematical Modeling of Allelopathy. III. A Model for Curve-Fitting Allelochemical Dose Responses

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Li; An, Min; Johnson, Ian R.; Lovett, John V.

    2003-01-01

    Bioassay techniques are often used to study the effects of allelochemicals on plant processes, and it is generally observed that the processes are stimulated at low allelochemical concentrations and inhibited as the concentrations increase. A simple empirical model is presented to analyze this type of response. The stimulation-inhibition properties of allelochemical-dose responses can be described by the parameters in the model. The indices, p% reductions, are calculated to assess the alleloc...

  9. Modeling Pathological Hemodynamic Responses to the Valsalva Maneuver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pstras, Leszek; Thomaseth, Karl; Waniewski, Jacek; Balzani, Italo; Bellavere, Federico

    2017-06-01

    The Valsalva maneuver (VM) consisting in a forced expiration against closed airways is one of the most popular clinical tests of the autonomic nervous system function. When properly performed by a healthy subject, it features four characteristic phases of arterial blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) variations, based on the magnitude of which the autonomic function may be assessed qualitatively and quantitatively. In patients with some disorders or in healthy patients subject to specific conditions, the pattern of BP and HR changes during the execution of the Valsalva maneuver may, however, differ from the typical sinusoidal-like pattern. Several types of such abnormal responses are well known and correspond to specific physiological conditions. In this paper, we use our earlier mathematical model of the cardiovascular response to the Valsalva maneuver to show that such pathological responses may be simulated by changing individual model parameters with a clear physiological meaning. The simulation results confirm the adaptability of our model and its usefulness for diagnostic or educational purposes.

  10. Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugiyama, Gayle [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Pobanz, Brenda [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Foster, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Vogt, Phil [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Aluzzi, Fernando [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Homann, Steve [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    2012-05-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. This work encompassed: weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions, estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases, predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations, and source estimation and plume model refinement. An overview of NARAC response activities is provided, along with a more in-depth discussion of some of NARAC’s preliminary source reconstruction analyses. NARAC optimized the overall agreement of model predictions to dose rate measurements using statistical comparisons of data and model values paired in space and time. Estimated emission rates varied depending on the choice of release assumptions (e.g., time-varying vs. constant release rates), the radionuclide mix, meteorology, and/or the radiological data used in the analysis. Results were found to be consistent with other studies within expected uncertainties, despite the application of different source estimation methodologies and the use of significantly different radiological measurement data. A discussion of some of the operational and scientific challenges encountered during the response, along with recommendations for future work, is provided.

  11. Modeling Granulomas in Response to Infection in the Lung.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenrui Hao

    Full Text Available Alveolar macrophages play a large role in the innate immune response of the lung. However, when these highly immune-regulatory cells are unable to eradicate pathogens, the adaptive immune system, which includes activated macrophages and lymphocytes, particularly T cells, is called upon to control the pathogens. This collection of immune cells surrounds, isolates and quarantines the pathogen, forming a small tissue structure called a granuloma for intracellular pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb. In the present work we develop a mathematical model of the dynamics of a granuloma by a system of partial differential equations. The 'strength' of the adaptive immune response to infection in the lung is represented by a parameter α, the flux rate by which T cells and M1 macrophages that immigrated from the lymph nodes enter into the granuloma through its boundary. The parameter α is negatively correlated with the 'switching time', namely, the time it takes for the number of M1 type macrophages to surpass the number of infected, M2 type alveolar macrophages. Simulations of the model show that as α increases the radius of the granuloma and bacterial load in the granuloma both decrease. The model is used to determine the efficacy of potential host-directed therapies in terms of the parameter α, suggesting that, with fixed dosing level, an infected individual with a stronger immune response will receive greater benefits in terms of reducing the bacterial load.

  12. The professional responsibility model of obstetric ethics and caesarean delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chervenak, Frank A; McCullough, Laurence B

    2013-04-01

    In this chapter, we provide an account of the professional responsibility model of obstetric ethics, and identify its implications for two major topics: patient-choice caesarean delivery and trial of labour after caesarean delivery. The professional responsibility model of obstetric ethics is based on the ethical concept of medicine as a profession and the ethical principles of beneficence and respect for autonomy. The obstetrician has beneficence-based and autonomy-based obligations to the pregnant woman and beneficence-based obligations to the fetus when it is a patient. Because the viable fetus is a patient, the ethics of caesarean delivery requires balancing of obligations to the pregnant and fetal patient. The implication of the professional responsibility model for patient-choice caesarean delivery is that the obstetrician should respond to such requests with a recommendation against non-indicated caesarean delivery and for vaginal delivery. These recommendations should be explained and discussed in the informed consent process. It is ethically permissible to implement an informed, reflective decision for non-indicated caesarean delivery. The implication for trial of labour after caesarean delivery is that, in settings properly equipped and staffed, the obstetrician should offer both trial of labour after caesarean delivery and planned caesarean delivery to women who have had one previous low transverse incision. The obstetrician should recommend against trial of labour after caesarean delivery for women with a previous classical incision. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. [Integration of demographic variables into development plans in the Sahel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wane, H R

    1992-07-01

    A founding principle of the Program of Action of N'Djamena is the interdependence of population and development and the need for development strategies to take demographic factors into account. The concept of integration of population variables into development has evolved since its introduction in the 1974 World Population Plan of Action from a simple description of population size, growth rates, and distribution to a stress on harmonizing population policies and development policies with macroeconomic variables. The essence of the concept is the consideration given by development policies and programs to the interrelations between population, resources, the environment, and development factors. Population variables and goals should ideally be treated as endogenous variables in development planning, but in practice the extreme complexity of such a systematic approach limits its ability to be made operational. Usually the most crucial problems only are included. Integrated planning is composed of explicit or implicit population policies intended to influence demographic variables and of socioeconomic policies intended to adapt to demographic change. In the Sahel, only Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Mali have formal population policies, but around 1980 several countries of the region began to show interest in influencing demographic variables as they did economic variables. Fundamental principles for developing an integration strategy can be applied regardless or whether the plan is based on projections, analysis of interaction of a demographic variable with factors specific to a sector, or a monosectorial or multisectorial demoeconomic planning model. Demographic data is used more frequently in diagnosing problems than in developing projections or formulating objectives. The level of disaggregation of demographic projections and estimates tends to be low, despite the great potential utility of demographic projections in planning. Demographic projections can be useful

  14. Model of optical response of marine aerosols to Forbush decreases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bondo

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to elucidate the effect of galactic cosmic rays on cloud formation, we investigate the optical response of marine aerosols to Forbush decreases – abrupt decreases in galactic cosmic rays – by means of modeling. We vary the nucleation rate of new aerosols, in a sectional coagulation and condensation model, according to changes in ionization by the Forbush decrease. From the resulting size distribution we then calculate the aerosol optical thickness and Angstrom exponent, for the wavelength pairs 350, 450 nm and 550, 900 nm. For the shorter wavelength pair we observe a change in Angstrom exponent, following the Forbush Decrease, of −6 to +3% in the cases with atmospherically realistic output parameters. For some parameters we also observe a delay in the change of Angstrom exponent, compared to the maximum of the Forbush decrease, which is caused by different sensitivities of the probing wavelengths to changes in aerosol number concentration and size. For the long wavelengths these changes are generally smaller. The types and magnitude of change is investigated for a suite of nucleation rates, condensable gas production rates, and aerosol loss rates. Furthermore we compare the model output with observations of 5 of the largest Forbush decreases after year 2000. For the 350, 450 nm pair we use AERONET data and find a comparable change in signal while the Angstrom Exponent is lower in the model than in the data, due to AERONET being mainly sampled over land. For 550, 900 nm we compare with both AERONET and MODIS and find little to no response in both model and observations. In summary our study shows that the optical properties of aerosols show a distinct response to Forbush Decreases, assuming that the nucleation of fresh aerosols is driven by ions. Shorter wavelengths seem more favorable for observing these effects and great care should be taken when analyzing observations, in order to avoid the signal being drowned out by noise.

  15. Modeling In Vitro Cellular Responses to Silver Nanoparticles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwaipayan Mukherjee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Engineered nanoparticles (NPs have been widely demonstrated to induce toxic effects to various cell types. In vitro cell exposure systems have high potential for reliable, high throughput screening of nanoparticle toxicity, allowing focusing on particular pathways while excluding unwanted effects due to other cells or tissue dosimetry. The work presented here involves a detailed biologically based computational model of cellular interactions with NPs; it utilizes measurements performed in human cell culture systems in vitro, to develop a mechanistic mathematical model that can support analysis and prediction of in vivo effects of NPs. The model considers basic cellular mechanisms including proliferation, apoptosis, and production of cytokines in response to NPs. This new model is implemented for macrophages and parameterized using in vitro measurements of changes in cellular viability and mRNA levels of cytokines: TNF, IL-1b, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10. The model includes in vitro cellular dosimetry due to nanoparticle transport and transformation. Furthermore, the model developed here optimizes the essential cellular parameters based on in vitro measurements, and provides a “stepping stone” for the development of more advanced in vivo models that will incorporate additional cellular and NP interactions.

  16. Allometric functional response model: body masses constrain interaction strengths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vucic-Pestic, Olivera; Rall, Björn C; Kalinkat, Gregor; Brose, Ulrich

    2010-01-01

    1. Functional responses quantify the per capita consumption rates of predators depending on prey density. The parameters of these nonlinear interaction strength models were recently used as successful proxies for predicting population dynamics, food-web topology and stability. 2. This study addressed systematic effects of predator and prey body masses on the functional response parameters handling time, instantaneous search coefficient (attack coefficient) and a scaling exponent converting type II into type III functional responses. To fully explore the possible combinations of predator and prey body masses, we studied the functional responses of 13 predator species (ground beetles and wolf spiders) on one small and one large prey resulting in 26 functional responses. 3. We found (i) a power-law decrease of handling time with predator mass with an exponent of -0.94; (ii) an increase of handling time with prey mass (power-law with an exponent of 0.83, but only three prey sizes were included); (iii) a hump-shaped relationship between instantaneous search coefficients and predator-prey body-mass ratios; and (iv) low scaling exponents for low predator-prey body mass ratios in contrast to high scaling exponents for high predator-prey body-mass ratios. 4. These scaling relationships suggest that nonlinear interaction strengths can be predicted by knowledge of predator and prey body masses. Our results imply that predators of intermediate size impose stronger per capita top-down interaction strengths on a prey than smaller or larger predators. Moreover, the stability of population and food-web dynamics should increase with increasing body-mass ratios in consequence of increases in the scaling exponents. 5. Integrating these scaling relationships into population models will allow predicting energy fluxes, food-web structures and the distribution of interaction strengths across food web links based on knowledge of the species' body masses.

  17. The unfolded protein response and translation attenuation: a modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusina, A; Tang, C

    2010-10-01

    Unfolded protein response (UPR) is a stress response to increased levels of unfolded proteins in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). To deal with this stress, all eukaryotic cells share a well-conserved strategy--the upregulation of chaperons and proteases to facilitate protein folding and to degrade the misfolded proteins. For metazoans, however, an additional and seemingly redundant strategy has been evolved--translation attenuation (TA) of proteins targeted to the ER via the protein kinase PERK pathway. PERK is essential in secretory cells, such as the pancreatic β-cells, but not in non-secretory cell types. We have recently developed a mathematical model of UPR, focusing on the interplay and synergy between the TA arm and the conserved Ire1 arm of the UPR. The model showed that the TA mechanism is beneficial in highly fluctuating environment, for example, in the case where the ER stress changes frequently. Under highly variable levels of ER stress, tight regulation of the ER load by TA avoids excess amount of chaperons and proteases being produced. The model also showed that TA is of greater importance when there is a large flux of proteins through the ER. In this study, we further expand our model to investigate different types of ER stress and different temporal profiles of the stress. We found that TA is more desirable in dealing with the translation stress, for example, prolonged stimulation of proinsulin biosynthesis, than the chemical stress.

  18. Model of cell response to {\\alpha}-particle radiation

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Longjian

    2012-01-01

    Starting from a general equation for organism (or cell system) growth and attributing additional cell death rate (besides the natural rate) to therapy, we derive an equation for cell response to {\\alpha} radiation. Different from previous models that are based on statistical theory, the present model connects the consequence of radiation with the growth process of a biosystem and each variable or parameter has meaning regarding the cell evolving process. We apply this equation to model the dose response for {\\alpha}-particle radiation. It interprets the results of both high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiations. When LET is high, the additional death rate is a constant, which implies that the localized cells are damaged immediately and the additional death rate is proportional to the number of cells present. While at low LET, the additional death rate includes a constant term and a linear term of radiation dose, implying that the damage to some cell nuclei has a time accumulating effect. This model ...

  19. Lattice models of traffic flow considering drivers' delay in response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Hui-Bing

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes two lattice traffic models by taking into account the drivers'delay in response.The lattice versions of the hydrodynamic model are described by the differential-difference equation and difference-difference equation.respectively.The stability conditions for the two models are obtained by using the linear stability theory.The modified KdV equation near the critical point is derived to describe the traffic jam by using the reductive perturbation method,and the kink-antikink soliton solutions related to the traffic density waves are obtained.The results show that the drivers'delay in sensing headway plays an important role in jamming transition.

  20. Quantitative modeling of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Fuller-Rowell

    Full Text Available A physical model of the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere has been used to determine the accuracy of model predictions of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity, and assess our understanding of the physical processes. The physical model is driven by empirical descriptions of the high-latitude electric field and auroral precipitation, as measures of the strength of the magnetospheric sources of energy and momentum to the upper atmosphere. Both sources are keyed to the time-dependent TIROS/NOAA auroral power index. The output of the model is the departure of the ionospheric F region from the normal climatological mean. A 50-day interval towards the end of 1997 has been simulated with the model for two cases. The first simulation uses only the electric fields and auroral forcing from the empirical models, and the second has an additional source of random electric field variability. In both cases, output from the physical model is compared with F-region data from ionosonde stations. Quantitative model/data comparisons have been performed to move beyond the conventional "visual" scientific assessment, in order to determine the value of the predictions for operational use. For this study, the ionosphere at two ionosonde stations has been studied in depth, one each from the northern and southern mid-latitudes. The model clearly captures the seasonal dependence in the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity at mid-latitude, reproducing the tendency for decreased ion density in the summer hemisphere and increased densities in winter. In contrast to the "visual" success of the model, the detailed quantitative comparisons, which are necessary for space weather applications, are less impressive. The accuracy, or value, of the model has been quantified by evaluating the daily standard deviation, the root-mean-square error, and the correlation coefficient between the data and model predictions. The modeled quiet-time variability, or standard

  1. Assessing Model Data Fit of Unidimensional Item Response Theory Models in Simulated Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kose, Ibrahim Alper

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to give an example of how to assess the model-data fit of unidimensional IRT models in simulated data. Also, the present research aims to explain the importance of fit and the consequences of misfit by using simulated data sets. Responses of 1000 examinees to a dichotomously scoring 20 item test were simulated with 25…

  2. Computerized Adaptive Testing: A Comparison of the Nominal Response Model and the Three Parameter Logistic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAyala, R. J.; Koch, William R.

    A nominal response model-based computerized adaptive testing procedure (nominal CAT) was implemented using simulated data. Ability estimates from the nominal CAT were compared to those from a CAT based upon the three-parameter logistic model (3PL CAT). Furthermore, estimates from both CAT procedures were compared with the known true abilities used…

  3. Chiropractors in Finland – a demographic survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malmqvist Stefan

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Finnish chiropractic profession is young and not fully accepted by Finnish healthcare authorities. The demographic profile and style of practice has not been described to date. However, as the profession seems to be under rapid development, it would be of interest to stakeholders, both chiropractic and political, to obtain a baseline description of this profession with a view to the development of future goals and strategies for the profession. The purpose of this study was to describe the chiropractic profession in Finland in relation to its demographic background, the demographics of their clinics, practice patterns, interactions with other health care practitioners and some of the professions' plans for the future. Methods A structured questionnaire survey was conducted in 2005, in which all 50 members of the Finnish Chiropractic Union were invited to participate. Results In all, 44 questionnaires were returned (response rate 88%. Eighty percent of the respondents were men, and 77% were aged 30 to 44 years old, most of whom graduated after 1990 with either a university-based bachelors' or masters' degree in chiropractic. Solo practice was their main practice pattern. The vast majority described their scope of practice to be based on a musculoskeletal approach, using the Diversified Technique, performing Soft Tissue Therapy and about two-thirds also used an Activator Instrument (mechanical adjusting instrument. The mean number of patient visits reported to have been seen weekly was 59 of which nine were new patients. Most practitioners found this number of patients satisfactory. At the initial consultation, 80% of respondents spent 30–45 minutes with their patients, 75% spent 20–30 minutes with "new old" patients and on subsequent visits 80% of respondents spent 15–30 minutes. Interactions with other health care professions were reasonably good and most of chiropractors intended to remain within the profession

  4. A model of cytoskeletal reorientation in response to substrate stretching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazopoulos K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Living adherent cells change their orientation in response to substrate stretching such that their cytoskeletal components reorganize in a new direction. To study this phenomenon, we model the cytoskeleton as a planar system of elastic cables and struts both pinned at their endpoints to a flat flexible substrate. Tensed (pre-strained cables represent acting stress fibers, whereas compression-bearing struts represent microtubules. We assume that in response to uniaxial substrate stretching the model reorients and deforms into a new configuration that minimizes its total potential energy. Using the Maxwell's global stability criterion, we find global minima configurations during static extension and compression of the substrate. Based on these results, we predict reorientation during cyclic stretching of the substrate. We find that in response to cyclic stretching cells either reorient transversely to the direction of stretching, or exhibit multiple configurations symmetrically distributed relative to the direction of stretching. These predictions are consistent with experimental data on living cells from the literature.

  5. 3D face analysis for demographic biometrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Mikkilineni, Aravind K [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Despite being increasingly easy to acquire, 3D data is rarely used for face-based biometrics applications beyond identification. Recent work in image-based demographic biometrics has enjoyed much success, but these approaches suffer from the well-known limitations of 2D representations, particularly variations in illumination, texture, and pose, as well as a fundamental inability to describe 3D shape. This paper shows that simple 3D shape features in a face-based coordinate system are capable of representing many biometric attributes without problem-specific models or specialized domain knowledge. The same feature vector achieves impressive results for problems as diverse as age estimation, gender classification, and race classification.

  6. Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Demand Response Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathieu, Johanna L. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    While the traditional goal of an electric power system has been to control supply to fulfill demand, the demand-side can plan an active role in power systems via Demand Response (DR), defined by the Department of Energy (DOE) as “a tariff or program established to motivate changes in electric use by end-use customers in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to give incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high market prices or when grid reliability is jeopardized” [29]. DR can provide a variety of benefits including reducing peak electric loads when the power system is stressed and fast timescale energy balancing. Therefore, DR can improve grid reliability and reduce wholesale energy prices and their volatility. This dissertation focuses on analyzing both recent and emerging DR paradigms. Recent DR programs have focused on peak load reduction in commercial buildings and industrial facilities (C&I facilities). We present methods for using 15-minute-interval electric load data, commonly available from C&I facilities, to help building managers understand building energy consumption and ‘ask the right questions’ to discover opportunities for DR. Additionally, we present a regression-based model of whole building electric load, i.e., a baseline model, which allows us to quantify DR performance. We use this baseline model to understand the performance of 38 C&I facilities participating in an automated dynamic pricing DR program in California. In this program, facilities are expected to exhibit the same response each DR event. We find that baseline model error makes it difficult to precisely quantify changes in electricity consumption and understand if C&I facilities exhibit event-to-event variability in their response to DR signals. Therefore, we present a method to compute baseline model error and a metric to determine how much observed DR variability results from baseline model error rather than real

  7. Immune response modulation by curcumin in a latex allergy model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raju Raghavan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There has been a worldwide increase in allergy and asthma over the last few decades, particularly in industrially developed nations. This resulted in a renewed interest to understand the pathogenesis of allergy in recent years. The progress made in the pathogenesis of allergic disease has led to the exploration of novel alternative therapies, which include herbal medicines as well. Curcumin, present in turmeric, a frequently used spice in Asia has been shown to have anti-allergic and inflammatory potential. Methods We used a murine model of latex allergy to investigate the role of curcumin as an immunomodulator. BALB/c mice were exposed to latex allergens and developed latex allergy with a Th2 type of immune response. These animals were treated with curcumin and the immunological and inflammatory responses were evaluated. Results Animals exposed to latex showed enhanced serum IgE, latex specific IgG1, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, eosinophils and inflammation in the lungs. Intragastric treatment of latex-sensitized mice with curcumin demonstrated a diminished Th2 response with a concurrent reduction in lung inflammation. Eosinophilia in curcumin-treated mice was markedly reduced, co-stimulatory molecule expression (CD80, CD86, and OX40L on antigen-presenting cells was decreased, and expression of MMP-9, OAT, and TSLP genes was also attenuated. Conclusion These results suggest that curcumin has potential therapeutic value for controlling allergic responses resulting from exposure to allergens.

  8. Fluctuations, Response, and Resonances in a Simple Atmospheric Model

    CERN Document Server

    Gritsun, Andrey

    2016-01-01

    We study the response of a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic model of the atmosphere to various classes of perturbations affecting its forcing and its dissipation using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory. We investigate the geometry of such perturbations using the covariant Lyapunov vectors on the unperturbed system and discover in one specific case - orographic forcing - a substantial projection of the perturbation onto the stable directions of the flow. As a result, we find a clear violation of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, in agreement with the basic tenets of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. This results into a very strong response in the form of a forced Rossby-like wave that has no resemblance to the natural variability in the same range of spatial and temporal scales. We further analyze such a feature and discover it can be interpreted as resonant response to a specific group of rarely visited unstable periodic orbits of the unperturbed system. Our results reinforce the idea of u...

  9. [Application of three compartment model and response surface model to clinical anesthesia using Microsoft Excel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Eiji; Abe, Mari

    2011-08-01

    With the spread of total intravenous anesthesia, clinical pharmacology has become more important. We report Microsoft Excel file applying three compartment model and response surface model to clinical anesthesia. On the Microsoft Excel sheet, propofol, remifentanil and fentanyl effect-site concentrations are predicted (three compartment model), and probabilities of no response to prodding, shaking, surrogates of painful stimuli and laryngoscopy are calculated using predicted effect-site drug concentration. Time-dependent changes in these calculated values are shown graphically. Recent development in anesthetic drug interaction studies are remarkable, and its application to clinical anesthesia with this Excel file is simple and helpful for clinical anesthesia.

  10. CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIVIU RADU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Major dysfunctionalities can arise from the demographic decline, both on a social level and from the perspective of the economic-financial evolution of the world’s states. The obvious aging of the industrialized states’ population overlapping the import of cheap workforce in the developing countries can start mutations whose consequences are somewhat predictable but discouraging. An accelerated urbanization of the states is foreseen, as well as the decrease of birthrates, negative external migration, increase of mortality and its stagnation in a larger value than that of the birthrate, and not least the population’s aging will hinder a part of the developing countries to sustain a high rhythm of long-term economical increase. The socialeconomic consequences will be reflected in the labor market, the householders’ amount of income as well as in the education’s level. All of these aspects call for a rethinking of the public politics, especially of the social insurance’s system and of the education, a reorientation of the economy based on the increase of specializing in production and productivity, as well as a financial stability unburdened by the politics’ interference in the business environment.

  11. Sequence Analysis in Demographic Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Billari, Francesco C.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishThis paper examines the salient features of sequence analysis in demogrpahicresearch. The new approach allows a holistic perspective on life course analysis and is based on arepresentation of lives as sequences of states. Some of the methods for analyzing such data aresketched, from complex description to optimal matching ot monoethetic divisive algorithms. Afer ashort ilustration of a demographically-relevant example, the needs in terms of data collection and theopportunities of applying the same aproach to synthetic data are discussed.FrenchOn examine ici les principaux éléments de l’analyse par séquence endémographie. Cette nouvelle technique permet une perspective unifiée del’analyse du cours de la vie, en représentant la vie comme une série d’états.Certaines des méthodes pour de telles analyses sont décrites, en commençant parla description complexe, pour considérer ensuite les alignements optimales, etles algorithmes de division. Après un court exemple en démographie, onconsidère les besoins en données et les possibilités d’application aux donnéessynthétique.

  12. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  13. Parsimonious Hydrologic and Nitrate Response Models For Silver Springs, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klammler, Harald; Yaquian-Luna, Jose Antonio; Jawitz, James W.; Annable, Michael D.; Hatfield, Kirk

    2014-05-01

    Silver Springs with an approximate discharge of 25 m3/sec is one of Florida's first magnitude springs and among the largest springs worldwide. Its 2500-km2 springshed overlies the mostly unconfined Upper Floridan Aquifer. The aquifer is approximately 100 m thick and predominantly consists of porous, fractured and cavernous limestone, which leads to excellent surface drainage properties (no major stream network other than Silver Springs run) and complex groundwater flow patterns through both rock matrix and fast conduits. Over the past few decades, discharge from Silver Springs has been observed to slowly but continuously decline, while nitrate concentrations in the spring water have enormously increased from a background level of 0.05 mg/l to over 1 mg/l. In combination with concurrent increases in algae growth and turbidity, for example, and despite an otherwise relatively stable water quality, this has given rise to concerns about the ecological equilibrium in and near the spring run as well as possible impacts on tourism. The purpose of the present work is to elaborate parsimonious lumped parameter models that may be used by resource managers for evaluating the springshed's hydrologic and nitrate transport responses. Instead of attempting to explicitly consider the complex hydrogeologic features of the aquifer in a typically numerical and / or stochastic approach, we use a transfer function approach wherein input signals (i.e., time series of groundwater recharge and nitrate loading) are transformed into output signals (i.e., time series of spring discharge and spring nitrate concentrations) by some linear and time-invariant law. The dynamic response types and parameters are inferred from comparing input and output time series in frequency domain (e.g., after Fourier transformation). Results are converted into impulse (or step) response functions, which describe at what time and to what magnitude a unitary change in input manifests at the output. For the

  14. Mechanistic modeling of turkey growth response to genotype and nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Torres, V; Ferket, P R; Sauvant, D

    2011-10-01

    Along with the fast genetic improvement, nutritional and environmental effects on poultry growth performance have made it necessary to develop growth models that have the flexibility to adapt to different genotypes and growing conditions. A mechanistic simulation model of energy and nutrient utilization in growing turkeys is presented herein. The model consists of simulating the average homeorhetic and homeostatic regulations associated with the utilization of circulating glucose, fatty acid, AA, and acetyl-CoA for protein and lipid retention in carcass, viscera, and feathers in a turkey population. Homeorhesis plays a major role in the control of protein and lipid turnover for the definition of genetic potential and feed intake, whereas homeostasis adjusts growth rate through protein and lipid turnover rates and, therefore, BW gain and feed intake to the growing conditions. Also, homeostasis enables the maintenance of a dynamic balance state during all the growing period through the control of circulating nutrient concentration. The model was developed and calibrated with experimental data that described energy utilization in male and female growing turkeys. Then, the ability of the model to adapt to genotypes and to predict the average response of a turkey population to dietary energy was evaluated. Model calibration showed simulations of energy and nutrient utilization that fitted well with the experimental data because ME was satisfyingly partitioned into heat production and energy retention as protein and lipid, and nutrient intake accurately partitioned BW gain into carcass, viscera, and feathers. The evaluation of the model was also satisfactory because BW gain and feed-to-gain ratio were globally in accordance with the observations in different male and female genotypes, in spite of an overestimation of the feed-to-gain ratio during the first weeks of age. Model evaluation showed that the BW gain and feed intake response of growing turkeys to dietary energy

  15. Mathematical Modeling of Allelopathy. III. A Model for Curve-Fitting Allelochemical Dose Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, De Li; An, Min; Johnson, Ian R.; Lovett, John V.

    2003-01-01

    Bioassay techniques are often used to study the effects of allelochemicals on plant processes, and it is generally observed that the processes are stimulated at low allelochemical concentrations and inhibited as the concentrations increase. A simple empirical model is presented to analyze this type of response. The stimulation-inhibition properties of allelochemical-dose responses can be described by the parameters in the model. The indices, p% reductions, are calculated to assess the allelochemical effects. The model is compared with experimental data for the response of lettuce seedling growth to Centaurepensin, the olfactory response of weevil larvae to α-terpineol, and the responses of annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.), creeping red fescue (Festuca rubra L., cv. Ensylva), Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L., cv. Kenblue), perennial ryegrass (L. perenne L., cv. Manhattan), and Rebel tall fescue (F. arundinacea Schreb) seedling growth to leachates of Rebel and Kentucky 31 tall fescue. The results show that the model gives a good description to observations and can be used to fit a wide range of dose responses. Assessments of the effects of leachates of Rebel and Kentucky 31 tall fescue clearly differentiate the properties of the allelopathic sources and the relative sensitivities of indicators such as the length of root and leaf. PMID:19330111

  16. Mathematical Modeling of Allelopathy. III. A Model for Curve-Fitting Allelochemical Dose Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, De Li; An, Min; Johnson, Ian R; Lovett, John V

    2003-01-01

    Bioassay techniques are often used to study the effects of allelochemicals on plant processes, and it is generally observed that the processes are stimulated at low allelochemical concentrations and inhibited as the concentrations increase. A simple empirical model is presented to analyze this type of response. The stimulation-inhibition properties of allelochemical-dose responses can be described by the parameters in the model. The indices, p% reductions, are calculated to assess the allelochemical effects. The model is compared with experimental data for the response of lettuce seedling growth to Centaurepensin, the olfactory response of weevil larvae to alpha-terpineol, and the responses of annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.), creeping red fescue (Festuca rubra L., cv. Ensylva), Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L., cv. Kenblue), perennial ryegrass (L. perenne L., cv. Manhattan), and Rebel tall fescue (F. arundinacea Schreb) seedling growth to leachates of Rebel and Kentucky 31 tall fescue. The results show that the model gives a good description to observations and can be used to fit a wide range of dose responses. Assessments of the effects of leachates of Rebel and Kentucky 31 tall fescue clearly differentiate the properties of the allelopathic sources and the relative sensitivities of indicators such as the length of root and leaf.

  17. Demographic changes and international factor mobility

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the extent and policy implications of linkages between demographic changes and international factor mobility. Evidence is found of significant demographic effects on both migration and the current account, but for different reasons neither increased migration nor international transfers of savings is expected to offer much assistance in digesting the variety of demographic transitions expected over the next fifty years. The paper also examines more briefly the effects of de...

  18. Signalling network construction for modelling plant defence response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragana Miljkovic

    Full Text Available Plant defence signalling response against various pathogens, including viruses, is a complex phenomenon. In resistant interaction a plant cell perceives the pathogen signal, transduces it within the cell and performs a reprogramming of the cell metabolism leading to the pathogen replication arrest. This work focuses on signalling pathways crucial for the plant defence response, i.e., the salicylic acid, jasmonic acid and ethylene signal transduction pathways, in the Arabidopsis thaliana model plant. The initial signalling network topology was constructed manually by defining the representation formalism, encoding the information from public databases and literature, and composing a pathway diagram. The manually constructed network structure consists of 175 components and 387 reactions. In order to complement the network topology with possibly missing relations, a new approach to automated information extraction from biological literature was developed. This approach, named Bio3graph, allows for automated extraction of biological relations from the literature, resulting in a set of (component1, reaction, component2 triplets and composing a graph structure which can be visualised, compared to the manually constructed topology and examined by the experts. Using a plant defence response vocabulary of components and reaction types, Bio3graph was applied to a set of 9,586 relevant full text articles, resulting in 137 newly detected reactions between the components. Finally, the manually constructed topology and the new reactions were merged to form a network structure consisting of 175 components and 524 reactions. The resulting pathway diagram of plant defence signalling represents a valuable source for further computational modelling and interpretation of omics data. The developed Bio3graph approach, implemented as an executable language processing and graph visualisation workflow, is publically available at http://ropot.ijs.si/bio3graph/and can be

  19. Bayesian item fit analysis for unidimensional item response theory models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2006-11-01

    Assessing item fit for unidimensional item response theory models for dichotomous items has always been an issue of enormous interest, but there exists no unanimously agreed item fit diagnostic for these models, and hence there is room for further investigation of the area. This paper employs the posterior predictive model-checking method, a popular Bayesian model-checking tool, to examine item fit for the above-mentioned models. An item fit plot, comparing the observed and predicted proportion-correct scores of examinees with different raw scores, is suggested. This paper also suggests how to obtain posterior predictive p-values (which are natural Bayesian p-values) for the item fit statistics of Orlando and Thissen that summarize numerically the information in the above-mentioned item fit plots. A number of simulation studies and a real data application demonstrate the effectiveness of the suggested item fit diagnostics. The suggested techniques seem to have adequate power and reasonable Type I error rate, and psychometricians will find them promising.

  20. Rational Design of Glucose-Responsive Insulin Using Pharmacokinetic Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakh, Naveed A; Bisker, Gili; Lee, Michael A; Gong, Xun; Strano, Michael S

    2017-08-25

    A glucose responsive insulin (GRI) is a therapeutic that modulates its potency, concentration, or dosing of insulin in relation to a patient's dynamic glucose concentration, thereby approximating aspects of a normally functioning pancreas. Current GRI design lacks a theoretical basis on which to base fundamental design parameters such as glucose reactivity, dissociation constant or potency, and in vivo efficacy. In this work, an approach to mathematically model the relevant parameter space for effective GRIs is induced, and design rules for linking GRI performance to therapeutic benefit are developed. Well-developed pharmacokinetic models of human glucose and insulin metabolism coupled to a kinetic model representation of a freely circulating GRI are used to determine the desired kinetic parameters and dosing for optimal glycemic control. The model examines a subcutaneous dose of GRI with kinetic parameters in an optimal range that results in successful glycemic control within prescribed constraints over a 24 h period. Additionally, it is demonstrated that the modeling approach can find GRI parameters that enable stable glucose levels that persist through a skipped meal. The results provide a framework for exploring the parameter space of GRIs, potentially without extensive, iterative in vivo animal testing. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Vibration Response of Multi Storey Building Using Finite Element Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chik, T. N. T.; Zakaria, M. F.; Remali, M. A.; Yusoff, N. A.

    2016-07-01

    Interaction between building, type of foundation and the geotechnical parameter of ground may trigger a significant effect on the building. In general, stiffer foundations resulted in higher natural frequencies of the building-soil system and higher input frequencies are often associated with other ground. Usually, vibrations transmitted to the buildings by ground borne are often noticeable and can be felt. It might affect the building and become worse if the vibration level is not controlled. UTHM building is prone to the ground borne vibration due to closed distance from the main road, and the construction activities adjacent to the buildings. This paper investigates the natural frequency and vibration mode of multi storey office building with the presence of foundation system and comparison between both systems. Finite element modelling (FEM) package software of LUSAS is used to perform the vibration analysis of the building. The building is modelled based on the original plan with the foundation system on the structure model. The FEM results indicated that the structure which modelled with rigid base have high natural frequency compare to the structure with foundation system. These maybe due to soil structure interaction and also the damping of the system which related to the amount of energy dissipated through the foundation soil. Thus, this paper suggested that modelling with soil is necessary to demonstrate the soil influence towards vibration response to the structure.

  2. Nutrient Response Modeling in Falls of the Neuse Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing; Li, Jie

    2011-03-01

    In order to study system responses of Falls of the Neuse Reservoir (Falls Lake) to varied nutrient loadings, a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and eutrophication model was applied. The model was calibrated using 2005 and 2006 intensive survey data, and validated using 2007 survey data. Compared with historical hydrological records, 2005 and 2007 were considered as dry years and 2006 was recognized as a normal year. Relatively higher nutrient fluxes from the sediment were specified for dry year model simulations. The differences were probably due to longer residence time and hence higher nutrient retention rate during dry years in Falls Lake. During the normal year of 2006, approximately 70% of total nitrogen (TN) and 80% of total phosphorus (TP) were delivered from the tributaries; about 20% (TN and TP) were from the sediment bottom. During the dry years of 2005 and 2007, the amount of TN released from sediment was equivalent to that introduced from the tributaries, indicating the critical role of nutrient recycling within the system in dry years. The model results also suggest that both nitrogen and phosphorus are limiting phytoplankton growth in Falls Lake. In the upper part of the lake where high turbidity was observed, nitrogen limitation appeared to dominate. Scenario model runs also suggest that great nutrient loading reductions are needed for Falls Lake to meet the water quality standard.

  3. Oil spill model development and application for emergency response system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The paper introduces systematically the developing principle ofCWCM 1.0 oil spill model based on Lagrange system and oil spill fate processes in environment, reviews two oil spill incidents of "East Ambassador" in Jiaozhou Bay and "Min Fuel 2" in the mouth of Pearl River, and designs the predict system simulating oil spill applied in contingency plans. It is indicated that CWCM 1.0 has met preliminarily the demands for functions of precision simulating and oil spill predicting, and can plan an important role to support oil spill response.

  4. Complex humanitarian emergencies: A review of epidemiological and response models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burkle Frederick

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex emergencies (CEs have been the most common human-generated disaster of the past two decades. These internal conflicts and associated acts of genocide have been poorly understood and poorly managed. This article provides an epidemiological background and understanding of developing and developed countries, and chronic or smoldering countries′ CEs, and explains in detail the prevailing models of response seen by the international community. Even though CEs are declining in number, they have become more complex and dangerous. The UN Charter reform is expected to address internal conflicts and genocide but may not provide a more effective and efficient means to respond.

  5. China's Marriage Law: a model for family responsibilities and relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare-Mustin, R T

    1982-12-01

    China's Marriage Law of 1981 is presented with a brief commentary. The law encompasses the responsibilities of spouses, parents, children, grandparents, and siblings to one another. The new law is contrasted with the 1950 Marriage Law, which prohibited such feudal practices of former times as arranged marriages and child betrothals. The 1981 law is concerned with equality and the lawful needs of women, children, and the aged. Family planning is encouraged. Divorce is made easier to obtain. Adoptees and stepchildren are provided for. The law provides a legislative model for personal relationships.

  6. SPUF - a simple polyurethane foam mass loss and response model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hobbs, Michael L.; Lemmon, Gordon H.

    2003-07-01

    A Simple PolyUrethane Foam (SPUF) mass loss and response model has been developed to predict the behavior of unconfined, rigid, closed-cell, polyurethane foam-filled systems exposed to fire-like heat fluxes. The model, developed for the B61 and W80-0/1 fireset foam, is based on a simple two-step mass loss mechanism using distributed reaction rates. The initial reaction step assumes that the foam degrades into a primary gas and a reactive solid. The reactive solid subsequently degrades into a secondary gas. The SPUF decomposition model was implemented into the finite element (FE) heat conduction codes COYOTE [1] and CALORE [2], which support chemical kinetics and dynamic enclosure radiation using 'element death.' A discretization bias correction model was parameterized using elements with characteristic lengths ranging from 1-mm to 1-cm. Bias corrected solutions using the SPUF response model with large elements gave essentially the same results as grid independent solutions using 100-{micro}m elements. The SPUF discretization bias correction model can be used with 2D regular quadrilateral elements, 2D paved quadrilateral elements, 2D triangular elements, 3D regular hexahedral elements, 3D paved hexahedral elements, and 3D tetrahedron elements. Various effects to efficiently recalculate view factors were studied -- the element aspect ratio, the element death criterion, and a 'zombie' criterion. Most of the solutions using irregular, large elements were in agreement with the 100-{micro}m grid-independent solutions. The discretization bias correction model did not perform as well when the element aspect ratio exceeded 5:1 and the heated surface was on the shorter side of the element. For validation, SPUF predictions using various sizes and types of elements were compared to component-scale experiments of foam cylinders that were heated with lamps. The SPUF predictions of the decomposition front locations were compared to the front locations

  7. A dose-response model for refractory ceramic fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turim, J; Brown, R C

    2003-09-15

    Refractory ceramic fibers (RCFs) are man-made vitreous fibers commonly used in insulation applications above 1000 degrees C. Although they have been subjected to considerable toxicologic evaluation, only the pooled results from two rat inhalation studies provide data that may be suitable for performing a numerical risk assessment. Even in these inhalation studies, good evidence exists that the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) was exceeded and that pulmonary overload occurred, a condition that will cause tumors whatever the dust responsible. Indeed, a significant yield of tumors was only obtained at the highest dose tested. If these results are omitted, there is no statistically significant evidence of carcinogenicity within the RCF results. Although there is little evidence that overload-related tumors are relevant to human risk, we adopted a conservative approach to obtain the estimates of risk regardless of overload, using a biologically based model, the two-stage clonal expansion model, as well as various statistical models, including the benchmark dose model. We argue that the data favor the use of a biologically based model, which gives the best fit when the highest dose RCF exposures are omitted. Continuing with this model, we show that available data from the RCF experiment, less outliers, coupled with results from other experiments with man-made mineral fibers (MMVFs), demonstrate that all MMVFs are potentially carcinogenic, with any risk mediated by the fibers' biopersistence. Application of this "all MMVF data set" model yields a maximum likely estimate for RCF excess unit risk of 4.6 x 10(-5) (95% upper confidence limit = 9.2 x 10(-5) per fiber/ml). This implies that the risk from occupational exposure to RCFs at 1 fiber/ml for a typical working lifetime would not exceed 10(-4).

  8. A generalized measurement model to quantify health: the multi-attribute preference response model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul F M Krabbe

    Full Text Available After 40 years of deriving metric values for health status or health-related quality of life, the effective quantification of subjective health outcomes is still a challenge. Here, two of the best measurement tools, the discrete choice and the Rasch model, are combined to create a new model for deriving health values. First, existing techniques to value health states are briefly discussed followed by a reflection on the recent revival of interest in patients' experience with regard to their possible role in health measurement. Subsequently, three basic principles for valid health measurement are reviewed, namely unidimensionality, interval level, and invariance. In the main section, the basic operation of measurement is then discussed in the framework of probabilistic discrete choice analysis (random utility model and the psychometric Rasch model. It is then shown how combining the main features of these two models yields an integrated measurement model, called the multi-attribute preference response (MAPR model, which is introduced here. This new model transforms subjective individual rank data into a metric scale using responses from patients who have experienced certain health states. Its measurement mechanism largely prevents biases such as adaptation and coping. Several extensions of the MAPR model are presented. The MAPR model can be applied to a wide range of research problems. If extended with the self-selection of relevant health domains for the individual patient, this model will be more valid than existing valuation techniques.

  9. Roles and responsibilities in the secondary level eye care model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saibaba Saravanan

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available In any secondary level eye care clinic, a number of tasks must be completed. In different countries and different settings, different people will carry out these tasks. The manager is responsible for ensuring that all the tasks are covered, that people are carefully selected to perform them, and that staff are supported and managed. The International Centre for Advancement of Rural Eye Care (ICARE, within the L.V. Prasad Eye Institute (LVPEI in India, has evolved an eye care team to provide secondary level eye care services to a population of 0.5 to 1 million. The ICARE model emphasises that all cadres of clinical and non-clinical personnel are equally important. Below is a description of the range of jobs at secondary level centres. The tertiary centre at LVPEI manages leadership and training for this model.

  10. Numerical modeling of Thermal Response Tests in Energy Piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, A.; Toledo, M.; Moffat, R.; Herrera, P. A.

    2013-05-01

    Nowadays, thermal response tests (TRT) are used as the main tools for the evaluation of low enthalpy geothermal systems such as heat exchangers. The results of TRT are used for estimating thermal conductivity and thermal resistance values of those systems. We present results of synthetic TRT simulations that model the behavior observed in an experimental energy pile system, which was installed at the new building of the Faculty of Engineering of Universidad de Chile. Moreover, we also present a parametric study to identify the most influent parameters in the performance of this type of tests. The modeling was developed using the finite element software COMSOL Multiphysics, which allows the incorporation of flow and heat transport processes. The modeled system consists on a concrete pile with 1 m diameter and 28 m deep, which contains a 28 mm diameter PEX pipe arranged in a closed circuit. Three configurations were analyzed: a U pipe, a triple U and a helicoid shape implemented at the experimental site. All simulations were run considering transient response in a three-dimensional domain. The simulation results provided the temperature distribution on the pile for a set of different geometry and physical properties of the materials. These results were compared with analytical solutions which are commonly used to interpret TRT data. This analysis demonstrated that there are several parameters that affect the system response in a synthetic TRT. For example, the diameter of the simulated pile affects the estimated effective thermal conductivity of the system. Moreover, the simulation results show that the estimated thermal conductivity for a 1 m diameter pile did not stabilize even after 100 hours since the beginning of the test, when it reached a value 30% below value used to set up the material properties in the simulation. Furthermore, we observed different behaviors depending on the thermal properties of concrete and soil. According to the simulations, the thermal

  11. Centrifuge modeling of PGD response of buried pipe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michael O'Rourke; Vikram Gadicherla; Tarek Abdoun

    2005-01-01

    A new centrifuge based method for determining the response of continuous buried pipe to PGD is presented.The physical characteristics of the RPI's 100 g-ton geotechnical centrifuge and the current lifeline experiment split-box are described: The split-box contains the model pipeline and surrounding soil and is manufactured such that half can be offset, in flight, simulating PGD. In addition, governing similitude relations which allow one to determine the physical characteristics,(diameter, wall thickness and material modulus of elasticity) of the model pipeline are presented. Finally, recorded strains induced in two buried pipes with prototype diameters of 0.63 m and 0.95 m (24 and 36 inch) subject to 0.6 and 2.0 meters (2and 6 feet) of full scale fault offsets and presented and compared to corresponding FE results.

  12. Modeling the frequency response of microwave radiometers with QUCS

    CERN Document Server

    Zonca, Andrea; Williams, Brian; Rubin, Ishai; D'Arcangelo, Ocleto; Meinhold, Peter; Lubin, Philip; Franceschet, Cristian; Yahn, Stefan; Mennella, Aniello; Bersanelli, Marco

    2010-01-01

    Characterization of the frequency response of coherent radiometric receivers is a key element in estimating the flux of astrophysical emissions, since the measured signal depends on the convolution of the source spectral emission with the instrument band shape. Laboratory Radio Frequency (RF) measurements of the instrument bandpass often require complex test setups and are subject to a number of systematic effects driven by thermal issues and impedance matching, particularly if cryogenic operation is involved. In this paper we present an approach to modeling radiometers bandpasses by integrating simulations and RF measurements of individual components. This method is based on QUCS (Quasi Universal Circuit Simulator), an open-source circuit simulator, which gives the flexibility of choosing among the available devices, implementing new analytical software models or using measured S-parameters. Therefore an independent estimate of the instrument bandpass is achieved using standard individual component measureme...

  13. Atmospheric dispersion modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugiyama, Gayle [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pobanz, Brenda [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Vogt, Phil [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aluzzi, Fernando [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Homann, Steve [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    In this research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident including: daily Japanese weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions to inform planning for field monitoring operations and to provide U.S. government agencies with ongoing situational awareness of meteorological conditions; estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases to support protective action planning for U.S. citizens; predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations; and source estimation and plume model refinement based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and available monitoring data.

  14. Methodologies for modelling energy and amino acid responses in poultry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mervyn Gous

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present some of the issues faced by those whose interest is to predict responses in poultry, concentrating mainly on those related to the prediction of voluntary food intake, as this should be the basis of models designed to optimise both performance and feeding programmes. The value of models designed to predict growth or reproductive performance has been improved inestimably by making food intake an output from, as opposed to an input to, such models. Predicting voluntary food intake requires the potential of the bird to be known, be this the growth of body protein or lipid, the growth of feather protein, or the rate at which yolk and albumen may be deposited daily in the form of an egg, and some of the issues relating to the description of potentials are discussed. This potential defines the nutrients that would be required by the bird on the day, which can be converted to a desired food intake by dividing each requirement by the content of that nutrient in the feed. There will be occasions when the bird will be unable to consume what is required, and predicting the magnitude of these constraints on intake and performance provides the greatest challenge for modellers. This paper concentrates on some issues raised in defining the nutrient requirements of an individual, on constraints such as high temperatures and the social and infectious environment on voluntary food intake, on some recent differences in the response to dietary protein that have been observed between the major broiler strains, and on the methodologies used to deal with populations of birds, and finally with broiler breeder hens, whose food intake is constrained by management, not by the environment. These issues suggest that there are still challenges that lie ahead for those wishing to predict responses to nutrients in poultry. It is imperative, however, that the methods used to measure the numbers that make theories work, and that the

  15. Environmental Literacy in Madeira Island (Portugal): The Influence of Demographic Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinola, Hélder

    2016-01-01

    Demographic factors are among those that influence environmental literacy and, particularly, environmentally responsible behaviours, either directly or due to an aggregation effect dependent on other types of variables. Present study evaluates a set of demographic variables as predictors for environmental literacy among 9th grade students from…

  16. Tobacco Sales in Community Pharmacies: Remote Decisions and Demographic Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Cory M.; Peterson, N. Andrew; Schneider, John E.; Smith, Brian J.; Armstead, Theresa L.

    2010-01-01

    This study applied multilevel modeling procedures with data from 678 community pharmacies and 382 residential census tracts in a Midwestern U.S. state to determine if two sets of variables: retail type (e.g., remotely owned, independently owned) and population demographics of the tracts in which outlets were located were associated with retail…

  17. Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efird, Cathy M.

    The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

  18. Social identity patterns and trust in demographically diverse work teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, Karen; Vos, Menno; Luijters, Kyra

    The article presents a model that links trust in a demographically diverse work context to three different social-identity patterns. Trust is considered to be beneficial for interpersonal relationships and work outcomes in diverse teams as well as for a healthy work relationship between minority

  19. Tobacco Sales in Community Pharmacies: Remote Decisions and Demographic Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Cory M.; Peterson, N. Andrew; Schneider, John E.; Smith, Brian J.; Armstead, Theresa L.

    2010-01-01

    This study applied multilevel modeling procedures with data from 678 community pharmacies and 382 residential census tracts in a Midwestern U.S. state to determine if two sets of variables: retail type (e.g., remotely owned, independently owned) and population demographics of the tracts in which outlets were located were associated with retail…

  20. Social identity patterns and trust in demographically diverse work teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, Karen; Vos, Menno; Luijters, Kyra

    2009-01-01

    The article presents a model that links trust in a demographically diverse work context to three different social-identity patterns. Trust is considered to be beneficial for interpersonal relationships and work outcomes in diverse teams as well as for a healthy work relationship between minority mem

  1. High-response piezoelectricity modeled quantitatively near a phase boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newns, Dennis M.; Kuroda, Marcelo A.; Cipcigan, Flaviu S.; Crain, Jason; Martyna, Glenn J.

    2017-01-01

    Interconversion of mechanical and electrical energy via the piezoelectric effect is fundamental to a wide range of technologies. The discovery in the 1990s of giant piezoelectric responses in certain materials has therefore opened new application spaces, but the origin of these properties remains a challenge to our understanding. A key role is played by the presence of a structural instability in these materials at compositions near the "morphotropic phase boundary" (MPB) where the crystal structure changes abruptly and the electromechanical responses are maximal. Here we formulate a simple, unified theoretical description which accounts for extreme piezoelectric response, its observation at compositions near the MPB, accompanied by ultrahigh dielectric constant and mechanical compliances with rather large anisotropies. The resulting model, based upon a Landau free energy expression, is capable of treating the important domain engineered materials and is found to be predictive while maintaining simplicity. It therefore offers a general and powerful means of accounting for the full set of signature characteristics in these functional materials including volume conserving sum rules and strong substrate clamping effects.

  2. Fluctuations, response, and resonances in a simple atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gritsun, Andrey; Lucarini, Valerio

    2017-06-01

    We study the response of a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic model of the atmosphere to various classes of perturbations affecting its forcing and its dissipation using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory. We investigate the geometry of such perturbations by constructing the covariant Lyapunov vectors of the unperturbed system and discover in one specific case-orographic forcing-a substantial projection of the forcing onto the stable directions of the flow. This results into a resonant response shaped as a Rossby-like wave that has no resemblance to the unforced variability in the same range of spatial and temporal scales. Such a climatic surprise corresponds to a violation of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, in agreement with the basic tenets of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The resonance can be attributed to a specific group of rarely visited unstable periodic orbits of the unperturbed system. Our results reinforce the idea of using basic methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and high-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems to approach the problem of understanding climate dynamics.

  3. Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaz; Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a ...

  4. Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franović, Igor; Kostić, Srdjan; Perc, Matjaž; Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-06-01

    We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.

  5. Modeling auditory-nerve responses to electrical stimulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joshi, Suyash Narendra; Dau, Torsten; Epp, Bastian

    Cochlear implants (CI) directly stimulate the auditory nerve (AN), bypassing the mechano-electrical transduction in the inner ear. Trains of biphasic, charge balanced pulses (anodic and cathodic) are used as stimuli to avoid damage of the tissue. The pulses of either polarity are capable of produ......Cochlear implants (CI) directly stimulate the auditory nerve (AN), bypassing the mechano-electrical transduction in the inner ear. Trains of biphasic, charge balanced pulses (anodic and cathodic) are used as stimuli to avoid damage of the tissue. The pulses of either polarity are capable......μs, which is large enough to affect the temporal coding of sounds and hence, potentially, the communication abilities of the CI listener. In the present study, two recently proposed models of electric stimulation of the AN [1,2] were considered in terms of their efficacy to predict the spike timing...... for anodic and cathodic stimulation of the AN of cat [3]. The models’ responses to the electrical pulses of various shapes [4,5,6] were also analyzed. It was found that, while the models can account for the firing rates in response to various biphasic pulse shapes, they fail to correctly describe the timing...

  6. Modeling and non-linear responses of MEMS capacitive accelerometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Harsha C.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical investigation of an electrically actuated beam has been illustrated when the electrostatic-ally actuated micro-cantilever beam is separated from the electrode by a moderately large gap for two distinct types of geometric configurations of MEMS accelerometer. Higher order nonlinear terms have been taken into account for studying the pull in voltage analysis. A nonlinear model of gas film squeezing damping, another source of nonlinearity in MEMS devices is included in obtaining the dynamic responses. Moreover, in the present work, the possible source of nonlinearities while formulating the mathematical model of a MEMS accelerometer and their influences on the dynamic responses have been investigated. The theoretical results obtained by using MATLAB has been verified with the results obtained in FE software and has been found in good agreement. Criterion towards stable micro size accelerometer for each configuration has been investigated. This investigation clearly provides an understanding of nonlinear static and dynamics characteristics of electrostatically micro cantilever based device in MEMS.

  7. Parallel finite element modeling of earthquake ground response and liquefaction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jinchi Lu(陆金池); Jun Peng(彭军); Ahmed Elgamal; Zhaohui Yang(杨朝晖); Kincho H. Law

    2004-01-01

    Parallel computing is a promising approach to alleviate the computational demand in conducting large-scale finite element analyses. This paper presents a numerical modeling approach for earthquake ground response and liquefaction using the parallel nonlinear finite element program, ParCYCLIC, designed for distributed-memory message-passing parallel computer systems. In ParCYCLIC, finite elements are employed within an incremental plasticity, coupled solid-fluid formulation. A constitutive model calibrated by physical tests represents the salient characteristics of sand liquefaction and associated accumulation of shear deformations. Key elements of the computational strategy employed in ParCYCLIC include the development of a parallel sparse direct solver, the deployment of an automatic domain decomposer, and the use of the Multilevel Nested Dissection algorithm for ordering of the finite element nodes. Simulation results of centrifuge test models using ParCYCLIC are presented. Performance results from grid models and geotechnical simulations show that ParCYCLIC is efficiently scalable to a large number of processors.

  8. Modeling Responses of Leafy Spurge Dispersal to Control Strategies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zewei Miao

    2007-01-01

    Leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula L.) has substantial negative effects on grassland biodiversity, productivity, and economic benefit in North America.To predict these negative impacts, we need an appropriate plant-spread model which can simulate the response of an invading population to different control strategies.In this study, using a stochastic map lattice approach we generated a spatially explicitly stochastic process-based model to simulate dispersal trajectories of leafy spurge under various control scenarios.The model integrated dispersal curve, propagule pressure, and population growth of leafy spurge at local and short-temporal scales to capture spread features of leafy spurge at large spatial and long-temporal scales.Our results suggested that narrow-, medium-, and fat-tailed kernels did not differ In their ability to predict spread, in contrast to previous works.For all kernels, Allee effects were significantly present and could explain the lag phase (three decades)before leafy spurge spread accelerated.When simulating from the initial stage of introduction, Allee effects were critical in predicting spread rate of leafy spurge, because the prediction could be seriously affected by the low density period of leafy spurge community.No Allee effects models were not able to simulate spread rate well in this circumstance.When applying control strategies to the current diatribution, Allee effects could stop the spread of leafy spurge; no Allee effects models, however, were able to slow but not stop the spread.The presence of Allee effects had significant ramifications on the efficiencies of control strategies.For both Allee and no Allee effects models, the later that control strategies were implemented, the more effort had to be input to achieve similar control results.

  9. Modeling and public health emergency responses: lessons from SARS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasser, John W; Hupert, Nathaniel; McCauley, Mary M; Hatchett, Richard

    2011-03-01

    Modelers published thoughtful articles after the 2003 SARS crisis, but had limited if any real-time impact on the global response and may even have inadvertently contributed to a lingering misunderstanding of the means by which the epidemic was controlled. The impact of any intervention depends on its efficiency as well as efficacy, and efficient isolation of infected individuals before they become symptomatic is difficult to imagine. Nonetheless, in exploring the possible impact of quarantine, the product of efficiency and efficacy was varied over the entire unit interval. Another mistake was repeatedly fitting otherwise appropriate gamma distributions to times to event regardless of whether they were stationary or not, particularly onset-isolation intervals whose progressive reduction evidently contributed to SARS control. By virtue of their unknown biology, newly-emerging diseases are more challenging than familiar human scourges. Influenza, for example, recurs annually and has been modeled more thoroughly than any other infectious disease. Moreover, models were integrated into preparedness exercises, during which working relationships were established that bore fruit during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. To provide the most accurate and timely advice possible, especially about the possible impact of measures designed to control diseases caused by novel human pathogens, we must appreciate the value and difficulty of policy-oriented modeling. Effective communication of insights gleaned from modeling SARS will help to ensure that policymakers involve modelers in future outbreaks of newly-emerging infectious diseases. Accordingly, we illustrate the increasingly timely care-seeking by which, together with increasingly accurate diagnoses and effective isolation, SARS was controlled via heuristic arguments and descriptive analyses of familiar observations.

  10. Modeling winter wheat phenological responses to water deficits in the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM) component of the spatially distributed Agricultural Ecosystem Services (AgES) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accurately predicting phenology in crop simulation models is critical for correctly simulating crop production. While extensive work in modeling phenology has focused on the temperature response function (resulting in robust phenology models), limited work on quantifying the phenological responses t...

  11. 人口学因素对因癌症丧亲者哀伤反应的影响%The influence of demographic factors on grief response to family members died from cancers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王海英

    2015-01-01

    Objective To assess the predictive role of demographic factors in cancer bereaved grief reaction.Meth-ods One-hundred and thirty five bereaved persons whose relatives died of Cancer were recruited by visiting and internet in the current study.These subjects were asked to complete Prolonged Grief-13 (PG-13)and the demographic information.Results Investigation shows that,PG-13 score of female (20.98 ±8.07)is higher than male (17.88 ±6.23);people who live in larger cities (19.77 ±7.33)is higher than people live in countyside (19.29 ±9.38)and rural area (18.95 ±7.08);people that just finish their primary or middle school gain the highest score (24.80 ±8.48);rather than married (19.23 ±7.06)and single (16.74 ±5.75 ),scores of people lost their spouse (24.50 ±10.06),in cohabitation (24.50 ±7.24)and divorced/separated (24.00 ±7.07)were higher.The differences are statistically significant (P <0.05).Conclusion The gender, education level,marital status can predict grief reaction of cancer bereaved individuals,We should carry out these works from different aspects in order to effectively help these people recover from the pain of lossing relatives.%目的:了解人口学因素对癌症丧亲者哀伤反应的影响。方法通过寻访和网络招募的方式寻得因癌症死亡而丧失亲属的调查对象135人,并进行问卷调查。结果调查显示,PG-13得分女性[(20.98±8.07)分]高于男性[17.88±6.23)分];居住地中,大中型城市[(19.77±7.33)分]高于县城[(19.29±9.38)分]和农村[(18.95±7.08)分];文化程度中小学及以下得分最高[(24.80±8.48)分];婚姻状况中丧偶[(24.50±10.06)分]、同居[(24.50±7.24)分]和离婚/分居[(24.00±7.07)分]得分均高于已婚[(19.23±7.06)分]和未婚[(16.74±5.75)分],差异均有统计学意义(P <0.05)。结论性别、文化程度、婚姻状况是影响癌症丧亲者

  12. Bias and ignorance in demographic perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, D; Guay, B; Marghetis, T

    2017-08-31

    When it comes to knowledge of demographic facts, misinformation appears to be the norm. Americans massively overestimate the proportions of their fellow citizens who are immigrants, Muslim, LGBTQ, and Latino, but underestimate those who are White or Christian. Previous explanations of these estimation errors have invoked topic-specific mechanisms such as xenophobia or media bias. We reconsidered this pattern of errors in the light of more than 30 years of research on the psychological processes involved in proportion estimation and decision-making under uncertainty. In two publicly available datasets featuring demographic estimates from 14 countries, we found that proportion estimates of national demographics correspond closely to what is found in laboratory studies of quantitative estimates more generally. Biases in demographic estimation, therefore, are part of a very general pattern of human psychology-independent of the particular topic or demographic under consideration-that explains most of the error in estimates of the size of politically salient populations. By situating demographic estimates within a broader understanding of general quantity estimation, these results demand reevaluation of both topic-specific misinformation about demographic facts and topic-specific explanations of demographic ignorance, such as media bias and xenophobia.

  13. The State Economic, Demographic & Fiscal Handbook 1993.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, David; Cohen, Lee

    This handbook is an easy-to-use reference book for policymakers, public officials, and policy analysts, as well as anyone else who may need up-to-date information about state economic, demographic, and fiscal data. The book includes data on demographics, poverty rates, per capita state personal income, state and local tax rates, and state and…

  14. 5 CFR 841.404 - Demographic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demographic factors. 841.404 Section 841... (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM-GENERAL ADMINISTRATION Government Costs § 841.404 Demographic factors. (a) The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) will consider the factors listed below...

  15. Demographic and clinical features of neuromyelitis optica

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pandit, L.; Asgari, Nasrin; Apiwattanakul, M.

    2015-01-01

    The comparative clinical and demographic features of neuromyelitis optica (NMO) are not well known. In this review we analyzed peer-reviewed publications for incidence and prevalence, clinical phenotypes, and demographic features of NMO. Population-based studies from Europe, South East and Southe...

  16. A Demographic Perspective on Family Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2014-01-01

    Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives—classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the “second demographic transition,” the spread of developmental idealism—that inform demographers’ understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms. PMID:26078785

  17. Saturn's Auroral Response to the Solar Wind: Centrifugal Instability Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sittler, Edward C.; Blanc, Michel F.; Richardson, J. D.

    2008-01-01

    We describe a model initially presented by Sittler et al. [2006] which attempts to explain the global response of Saturn's magnetosphere and its corresponding auroral behavior to variations in the solar wind. The model was derived from published simultaneous Hubble Space Telescope (HST) auroral images and Cassini upstream measurements taken during the month of January 2004. These observations show a direct correlation between solar wind dynamic pressure and (1) auroral brightening toward dawn local time, (2) an increase of rotational movement of auroral features to as much as 75% of the corotation speed, (3) the movement of the auroral oval to higher latitudes and (4) an increase in the intensity of Saturn Kilometric Radiation (SKR). This model is an alternative to the reconnection model of Cowley et al. [2004a,b; 2005] which is more Earth-like while ours stresses rotation. If angular momentum is conserved in a global sense, then when compressed the magnetosphere will tend to spin up and when it expands will tend to spin down. With the plasma sheet outer boundary at L approximates 15 we argue this region to be the dominant source region for the precipitating particles. If radial transport is dominated by centrifugal driven flux tube interchange motions, then when the magnetosphere spins up, outward transport will increase, the precipitating particles will move radially outward and cause the auroral oval to move to higher latitudes as observed. The Kelvin-Helmholtz instability may contribute to the enhanced emission along the dawn meridian as observed by HST. We present this model in the context of presently published observations by Cassini.

  18. Nonlinear dynamical model and response of avian cranial kinesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekangvan, Preeda; A Barhorst, Alan; Burton, Thomas D; Chatterjee, Sankar; Schovanec, Lawrence

    2006-05-01

    All modern birds have kinetic skulls in which the upper bill can move relative to the braincase, but the biomechanics and motion dynamics of cranial kinesis in birds are poorly understood. In this paper, we model the dynamics of avian cranial kinesis, such as prokinesis and proximal rhynchokinesis in which the upper jaw pivots around the nasal-frontal (N-F) hinge. The purpose of this paper is to present to the biological community an approach that demonstrates the application of sophisticated predictive mathematical modeling tools to avian kinesis. The generality of the method, however, is applicable to the advanced study of the biomechanics of other skeletal systems. The paper begins with a review of the relevant biological literature as well as the essential morphology of avian kinesis, especially the mechanical coupling of the upper and lower jaw by the postorbital ligament. A planar model of the described bird jaw morphology is then developed that maintains the closed kinematic topology of the avian jaw mechanism. We then develop the full nonlinear equations of motion with the assumption that the M. protractor pterygoideus and M. depressor mandibulae act on the quadrate as a pure torque, and the nasal frontal hinge is elastic with damping. The mechanism is shown to be a single degree of freedom device due to the holonomic constraints present in the quadrate-jugal bar-upper jaw-braincase-quadrate kinematic chain as well as the quadrate-lower jaw-postorbital ligament-braincase-quadrate kinematic chain. The full equations are verified via simulation and animation using the parameters of a Grey Heron (Ardea cinerea). Next we develop a simplified analytical model of the equations by power series expansion. We demonstrate that this model reproduces the dynamics of the full model to a high degree of fidelity. We proceed to use the harmonic balance technique to develop the frequency response characteristics of the jaw mechanism. It is shown that this avian cranial

  19. Modeling low impact development potential with hydrological response units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric, Marija; Fan, Celia; Joksimovic, Darko; Li, James Y

    2013-01-01

    Evaluations of benefits of implementing low impact development (LID) stormwater management techniques can extend up to a watershed scale. This presents a challenge for representing them in watershed models, since they are typically orders of magnitude smaller in size. This paper presents an approach that is focused on trying to evaluate the benefits of implementing LIDs on a lot level. The methodology uses the concept of urban hydrological response Unit and results in developing and applying performance curves that are a function of lot properties to estimate the potential benefit of large-scale LID implementation. Lot properties are determined using a municipal geographic information system database and processed to determine groups of lots with similar properties. A representative lot from each group is modeled over a typical rainfall year using USEPA Stormwater Management Model to develop performance functions that relate the lot properties and the change in annual runoff volume and corresponding phosphorus loading with different LIDs implemented. The results of applying performance functions on all urban areas provide the potential locations, benefit and cost of implementation of all LID techniques, guiding future decisions for LID implementation by watershed area municipalities.

  20. COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Weber, Elke; Berger, Loïc; Budescu, David V.; Liu, Ning; Tavoni, Massimo

    2017-02-01

    Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest.

  1. Generalized Fiducial Inference for Binary Logistic Item Response Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hannig, Jan

    2016-06-01

    Generalized fiducial inference (GFI) has been proposed as an alternative to likelihood-based and Bayesian inference in mainstream statistics. Confidence intervals (CIs) can be constructed from a fiducial distribution on the parameter space in a fashion similar to those used with a Bayesian posterior distribution. However, no prior distribution needs to be specified, which renders GFI more suitable when no a priori information about model parameters is available. In the current paper, we apply GFI to a family of binary logistic item response theory models, which includes the two-parameter logistic (2PL), bifactor and exploratory item factor models as special cases. Asymptotic properties of the resulting fiducial distribution are discussed. Random draws from the fiducial distribution can be obtained by the proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. We investigate the finite-sample performance of our fiducial percentile CI and two commonly used Wald-type CIs associated with maximum likelihood (ML) estimation via Monte Carlo simulation. The use of GFI in high-dimensional exploratory item factor analysis was illustrated by the analysis of a set of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire data.

  2. Modeling microstructural evolution and the mechanical response of superplastic materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesuer, D.R.; Syn, C.K.; Cadwell, K.L.; Preuss, C.S.

    1993-01-11

    A model has been developed that accounts for grain growth during, superplastic flow and its subsequent influence on stress-strain-strain rate behavior. These studies are experimentally based and have involved two different types of superplastic materials -- a quasi-single phase metal (Coronze 638) and a microduplex metal (ultrahigh-carbon steel - UHCS). In both materials the kinetics of strain-enhanced grain growth have been studied as a function of strain, strain rate and temperature. An equation for the rate of grain growth has been developed that incorporates the influence of temperature. The evolution of the grain size distribution during superplastic deformation has also been investigated. Our model integrates grain growth laws derived from these studies with two mechanism based, rate dependent constitutive laws to predict the stress-strainstrain rate behavior of materials during superplastic deformation. The influence of crain size distribution and its evolution with strain and strain rate on the stress-strain-strain rate behavior has been represented through the use of distributed parameters. The model can capture the stress-strain-strain rate behavior over a wide range of strains and strain rates with a single set of parameters. Many subtle features of the mechanical response of these materials can be adequately predicted.

  3. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-10-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  4. Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Demand Response Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathieu, Johanna L. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    While the traditional goal of an electric power system has been to control supply to fulfill demand, the demand-side can plan an active role in power systems via Demand Response (DR), defined by the Department of Energy (DOE) as “a tariff or program established to motivate changes in electric use by end-use customers in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to give incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high market prices or when grid reliability is jeopardized” [29]. DR can provide a variety of benefits including reducing peak electric loads when the power system is stressed and fast timescale energy balancing. Therefore, DR can improve grid reliability and reduce wholesale energy prices and their volatility. This dissertation focuses on analyzing both recent and emerging DR paradigms. Recent DR programs have focused on peak load reduction in commercial buildings and industrial facilities (C&I facilities). We present methods for using 15-minute-interval electric load data, commonly available from C&I facilities, to help building managers understand building energy consumption and ‘ask the right questions’ to discover opportunities for DR. Additionally, we present a regression-based model of whole building electric load, i.e., a baseline model, which allows us to quantify DR performance. We use this baseline model to understand the performance of 38 C&I facilities participating in an automated dynamic pricing DR program in California. In this program, facilities are expected to exhibit the same response each DR event. We find that baseline model error makes it difficult to precisely quantify changes in electricity consumption and understand if C&I facilities exhibit event-to-event variability in their response to DR signals. Therefore, we present a method to compute baseline model error and a metric to determine how much observed DR variability results from baseline model error rather than real

  5. Phase lagging model of brain response to external stimuli - modeling of single action potential

    CERN Document Server

    Seetharaman, Karthik; Kulish, Vladimir V

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we detail a phase lagging model of brain response to external stimuli. The model is derived using the basic laws of physics like conservation of energy law. This model eliminates the paradox of instantaneous propagation of the action potential in the brain. The solution of this model is then presented. The model is further applied in the case of a single neuron and is verified by simulating a single action potential. The results of this modeling are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of single action potential generation, but also they can be applied in case of neuronal interactions where the results can be verified against the real EEG signal.

  6. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  7. Demographic impact of vaccination: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonanni, P

    1999-10-29

    Vaccination is one of the most powerful means to save lives and to increase the level of health of mankind. However, the impact of immunization against the most threatening infectious agents on life expectancy has been the object of a still open debate. The main issues are: the relative influence of nutrition and infectious diseases on demographic patterns of populations; the possibility that lives saved thanks to vaccination are subsequently lost due to other competing causes of death; the positive indirect effect of immunization on other causes of death. With regard to past evidence, several data from the United Kingdom and Scandinavian countries show that the widespread use of smallpox vaccination starting at the beginning of the nineteenth century resulted in a marked and sustained decline not only of smallpox-related deaths, but also of the overall crude death rate, and contributed greatly to an unprecedented growth of European population. As to the present, it is estimated that 3 million children are saved annually by vaccination, but 2 million still die because they are not immunized. Tetanus, measles and pertussis are the main vaccine-preventable killers in the first years of life. Data from Bangladesh show that full implementation of EPI vaccines has the potential of reducing mortality by almost one half in children aged 1-4 years. Recent progress in the development of vaccines against agents responsible for much mortality in the developing countries make it possible to forecast a further substantial reduction of deaths for infectious diseases in the next century.

  8. Demographic evidence for adaptive theories of aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitteldorf, J J

    2012-07-01

    Pleiotropic theories for the evolutionary origins of senescence have been ascendant for forty years (see, for example, G. Williams (1957) Evolution, 11, 398-411; T. Kirkwood (1977) Nature, 270, 301-304), and it is not surprising that interpreters of demographic data seek to frame their results in this context. But some of that evidence finds a much more natural explanation in terms of adaptive aging. Here we re-interpret the 1997 results of the Centenarian Study in Boston, which found in their sample of centenarian women an excess of late childbearing. The finding was originally interpreted as a selection effect: a metabolic link between late menopause and longevity. But we demonstrate that this interpretation is statistically strained, and that the data in fact indicate a causal link: bearing a child late in life induces a metabolic response that promotes longevity. This conclusion directly contradicts some pleiotropic theories of aging that postulate a "cost of reproduction", and it supports theories of aging as an adaptive genetic program.

  9. Modelling C allocation in response to nutrient availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Benjamin; Prentice, Colin

    2015-04-01

    Carbon (C) allocation in ecosystems is a key variable of the global terrestrial C cycle. While photosynthesis governs the amount of C that enters ecosystems, its subsequent allocation to compartments with different life times determines its over-all residence time and variations in allocation patterns drive changes in ecosystem C balance and its response to environmental change. A better understanding of the controls on allocation is thus key to improving global vegetation models that commonly rely on using fixed partitioning factors. Observational data suggests variations of ecosystem structure and functioning along large-scale gradients of resource availability. Below-ground C allocation, inferred as gross primary production minus above-ground biomass production increases along gradients of decreasing nutrient availability. This is not only due to more root growth, but also due to enhanced production of exudates and stimulation of root symbionts and has been interpreted to reflect optimal plant allocation decisions under a varying soil fertility status. Here, we propose a model that accounts for trade-offs between (i) growth in above-ground and (ii) below-ground plant compartments, (iii) exudation to the rhizosphere and root symbionts and (iv) temporary storage in non-structural pools. By postulating the maximization of long-term growth under a given (seasonal regime) of soil nitrogen (N) availability, we attempt to reproduce observed large-scale gradients. The model is formulated based on a C cost for different N uptake decisions, where the cost is a function of N availability, root mass, and soil temperature (for biological N fixation). On a daily time scale, ecosystem N uptake may be realized by C exudation to the rhizosphere and/or symbiotic fixation of atmospheric N2. On an annual time scale, allocation to roots versus leaves is adjusted to soil inorganic N availability and modeled to yield maximum total growth. Exudation versus temporary storage of C is

  10. Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, Rodney C. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Lang, Maik [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2015-07-30

    The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO2, GeO2, CeO2, TiO2, HfO2, SnO2, ZnO and ZrO2) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

  11. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson-Sellers, A. [Climatic Impacts Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can`t yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.

  12. Biomaterial nanotopography-mediated cell responses: experiment and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Yang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The rapid development of fabrication and processing technologies in the past two decades has enabled researchers to introduce nanoscale features into materials which, interestingly, have been shown to greatly regulate the behavior and fate of biological cells. In particular, important cell responses (such as adhesion, proliferation, differentiation, migration, and filopodial growth have all been correlated with material nanotopography. Given its great potential, intensive efforts have been made, both experimentally and theoretically, to understand why and how cells respond to nanoscale surface features, and this article reviews recent progress in this field. Specifically, a brief overview on the fabrication and modification techniques to create nanotopography on different materials is given first. After that, a summary of important experimental findings on the mediation of nanoscale surface topography on the behavior of various cells, as well as the underlying mechanism, is provided. Finally, both classical and recently developed approaches for modeling nanotopography-mediated cell adhesion and filopodial growth are reviewed.

  13. Neural network connectivity and response latency modelled by stochastic processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamborrino, Massimiliano

    is connected to thousands of other neurons. The rst question is: how to model neural networks through stochastic processes? A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, obtained as a diffusion approximation of a jump process, is the proposed answer. Obviously, dependencies between neurons imply dependencies...... between their spike times. Therefore, the second question is: how to detect neural network connectivity from simultaneously recorded spike trains? Answering this question corresponds to investigate the joint distribution of sequences of rst passage times. A non-parametric method based on copulas...... generation of pikes. When a stimulus is applied to the network, the spontaneous rings may prevail and hamper detection of the effects of the stimulus. Therefore, the spontaneous rings cannot be ignored and the response latency has to be detected on top of a background signal. Everything becomes more dicult...

  14. Numerical Modeling of Ground Response during Diaphragm Wall Construction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Yong-chun; WANG Jian-hua

    2008-01-01

    Construction of diaphragm wall panels may cause considerable stress changes in heavily overconsolidated soil deposits and can induce substantial ground movement. The 3D Lagrangian method was adopted to model the mechanical response of ground, including horizontal normal stress and shear stress, lateral ground displacement and vertical ground surface settlement, during the slurry trenching and concreting of diaphragm wall panels. Numerical results show that slurry trenching leads to horizontal stress relief of ground, reducing the horizontal stress of the ground from initial K0 pressure to hydrostatic betonite pressure. Wet concrete pressure lies between the hydrostatic bentonite pressure and the initial K0 pressure, so it can compensate partially the horizontal stress loss of the ground adjacent to the trench and thus reduce the lateral movement of the trench face as well as the vertical settlement of the ground surface.

  15. Climatic conditions produce contrasting influences on demographic traits in a long-distance Arctic migrant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleasby, Ian R; Bodey, Thomas W; Vigfusdottir, Freydis; McDonald, Jenni L; McElwaine, Graham; Mackie, Kerry; Colhoun, Kendrew; Bearhop, Stuart

    2017-03-01

    The manner in which patterns of variation and interactions among demographic rates contribute to population growth rate (λ) is key to understanding how animal populations will respond to changing climatic conditions. Migratory species are likely to be particularly sensitive to climatic conditions as they experience a range of different environments throughout their annual cycle. However, few studies have provided fully integrated demographic analyses of migratory populations in response to changing climatic conditions. Here, we employed integrated population models to demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a short but critical period play a central role in the demography of a long-distance migrant, the light-bellied Brent goose (Branta bernicla hrota). Female survival was positively associated with June North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, whereas male survival was not. In contrast, breeding productivity was negatively associated with June NAO, suggesting a trade-off between female survival and reproductive success. Both adult female and adult male survival showed low temporal variation, whereas there was high temporal variation in recruitment and breeding productivity. In addition, while annual population growth was positively correlated with annual breeding productivity, a sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Our results demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a relatively short-time window at the start of the breeding season play a critical role in shaping the demography of a long-distant Arctic migrant. Crucially, different demographic rates responded in opposing directions to climatic variation, emphasising the need for integrated analysis of multiple demographic traits when understanding population dynamics. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

  16. Modeling of Auditory Neuron Response Thresholds with Cochlear Implants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederic Venail

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of the prosthetic-neural interface is a critical point for cochlear implant efficiency. It depends not only on technical and anatomical factors such as electrode position into the cochlea (depth and scalar placement, electrode impedance, and distance between the electrode and the stimulated auditory neurons, but also on the number of functional auditory neurons. The efficiency of electrical stimulation can be assessed by the measurement of e-CAP in cochlear implant users. In the present study, we modeled the activation of auditory neurons in cochlear implant recipients (nucleus device. The electrical response, measured using auto-NRT (neural responses telemetry algorithm, has been analyzed using multivariate regression with cubic splines in order to take into account the variations of insertion depth of electrodes amongst subjects as well as the other technical and anatomical factors listed above. NRT thresholds depend on the electrode squared impedance (β = −0.11 ± 0.02, P<0.01, the scalar placement of the electrodes (β = −8.50 ± 1.97, P<0.01, and the depth of insertion calculated as the characteristic frequency of auditory neurons (CNF. Distribution of NRT residues according to CNF could provide a proxy of auditory neurons functioning in implanted cochleas.

  17. Modeling of Auditory Neuron Response Thresholds with Cochlear Implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venail, Frederic; Mura, Thibault; Akkari, Mohamed; Mathiolon, Caroline; Menjot de Champfleur, Sophie; Piron, Jean Pierre; Sicard, Marielle; Sterkers-Artieres, Françoise; Mondain, Michel; Uziel, Alain

    2015-01-01

    The quality of the prosthetic-neural interface is a critical point for cochlear implant efficiency. It depends not only on technical and anatomical factors such as electrode position into the cochlea (depth and scalar placement), electrode impedance, and distance between the electrode and the stimulated auditory neurons, but also on the number of functional auditory neurons. The efficiency of electrical stimulation can be assessed by the measurement of e-CAP in cochlear implant users. In the present study, we modeled the activation of auditory neurons in cochlear implant recipients (nucleus device). The electrical response, measured using auto-NRT (neural responses telemetry) algorithm, has been analyzed using multivariate regression with cubic splines in order to take into account the variations of insertion depth of electrodes amongst subjects as well as the other technical and anatomical factors listed above. NRT thresholds depend on the electrode squared impedance (β = -0.11 ± 0.02, P < 0.01), the scalar placement of the electrodes (β = -8.50 ± 1.97, P < 0.01), and the depth of insertion calculated as the characteristic frequency of auditory neurons (CNF). Distribution of NRT residues according to CNF could provide a proxy of auditory neurons functioning in implanted cochleas.

  18. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  19. Modeling the intensity and polarization response of planar bolometric detectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Christopher N; Withington, Stafford; Chuss, David T; Wollack, Edward J; Moseley, S Harvey

    2010-05-01

    Far-infrared bolometric detectors are used extensively in ground-based and space-borne astronomy, and thus it is important to understand their optical behavior precisely. We have studied the intensity and polarization response of free-space bolometers and shown that when the size of the absorber is reduced below a wavelength, the response changes from being that of a classical optical detector to that of a few-mode antenna. We have calculated the modal content of the reception patterns and found that for any volumetric detector having a side length of less than a wavelength, three magnetic and three electric dipoles characterize the behavior. The size of the absorber merely determines the relative strengths of the contributions. The same formalism can be applied to thin-film absorbers, where the induced current is forced to flow in a plane. In this case, one magnetic and two electric dipoles characterize the behavior. The ability to model easily the intensity, polarization, and straylight characteristics of electrically small detectors will be of great value when designing high-performance polarimetric imaging arrays.

  20. Blunt impacts to the back: Biomechanical response for model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, Jason; Perry, Brandon; Henderson, Kyvory; Gjolaj, Joseph P; Heltzel, Sara; Lessley, David; Riley, Patrick; Salzar, Robert; Walilko, Tim

    2015-09-18

    The development of advanced injury prediction models requires biomechanical and injury tolerance information for all regions of the body. While numerous studies have investigated injury mechanics of the thorax under frontal impact, there remains a dearth of information on the injury mechanics of the torso under blunt impact to the back. A series of hub-impact tests were performed to the back surface of the mid-thorax of four mid-size male cadavers. Repeated tests were performed to characterize the biomechanical and injury response of the thorax under various impact speeds (1.5m/s, 3m/s and 5.5m/s). Deformation of the chest was recorded with a 59-gage chestband. Subject kinematics were also recorded with a high-speed optoelectronic 3D motion capture system. In the highest-severity tests, peak impact forces ranged from 6.9 to 10.5 kN. The peak change in extension angle measured between the 1st thoracic vertebra and the lumbar spine ranged from 39 to 62°. The most commonly observed injuries were strains of the costovertebral/costotransverse joint complexes, rib fractures, and strains of the interspinous and supraspinous ligaments. The majority of the rib fractures occurred in the rib neck between the costovertebral and costotransverse joints. The prevalence of rib-neck fractures suggests a novel, indirect loading mechanism resulting from bending moments generated in the rib necks caused by motion of the spine. In addition to the injury information, the biomechanical responses quantified here will facilitate the future development and validation of human body models for predicting injury risk during impact to the back. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.