WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling decision making

  1. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  2. Modeling Human Elements of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    include factors such as personality, emotion , and level of expertise, which vary from individual to individual. The process of decision - making during... rational choice theories such as utility theory, to more descriptive psychological models that focus more on the process of decision - making ...descriptive nature, they provide a more realistic representation of human decision - making than the rationally based models. However these models do

  3. Modelling decision-making by pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

  4. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  5. Intuitionistic preference modeling and interactive decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2014-01-01

    This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.

  6. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  7. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  8. [Mathematical models of decision making and learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2008-07-01

    Computational models of reinforcement learning have recently been applied to analysis of brain imaging and neural recording data to identity neural correlates of specific processes of decision making, such as valuation of action candidates and parameters of value learning. However, for such model-based analysis paradigms, selecting an appropriate model is crucial. In this study we analyze the process of choice learning in rats using stochastic rewards. We show that "Q-learning," which is a standard reinforcement learning algorithm, does not adequately reflect the features of choice behaviors. Thus, we propose a generalized reinforcement learning (GRL) algorithm that incorporates the negative reward effect of reward loss and forgetting of values of actions not chosen. Using the Bayesian estimation method for time-varying parameters, we demonstrated that the GRL algorithm can predict an animal's choice behaviors as efficiently as the best Markov model. The results suggest the usefulness of the GRL for the model-based analysis of neural processes involved in decision making.

  9. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  10. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  11. Rodent models of adaptive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.

  12. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  13. The Limitations of Applying Rational Decision-Making Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more. specificaDy to the use .... also assumes that the individual operates as a rational decision- making organism in ..... work involves: Motivation; Counselling; Distribution ofIEC mate-.

  14. Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

  15. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  16. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  17. Models of sequential decision making in consumer lending

    OpenAIRE

    Kanshukan Rajaratnam; Peter A. Beling; George A. Overstreet

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we introduce models of sequential decision making in consumer lending. From the definition of adverse selection in static lending models, we show that homogenous borrowers take-up offers at different instances of time when faced with a sequence of loan offers. We postulate that bounded rationality and diverse decision heuristics used by consumers drive the decisions they make about credit offers. Under that postulate, we show how observation of early decisions in a seq...

  18. Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

  19. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  20. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  1. Decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  2. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  3. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-18

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  4. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  5. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  6. A cooperative model of decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armour, A.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper will describe an experiment aimed at increasing the social responsiveness of planning and decision processes. It involves an on-going effort by the canadian federal government to site a facility to manage low level radioactive wastes

  7. Insights from quantum cognitive models for organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    White, L.C.; Pothos, E. M.; Busemeyer, J. R.

    2015-01-01

    Organizational decision making is often explored with theories from the heuristics and biases research program, which have demonstrated great value as descriptions of how people in organizations make decisions. Nevertheless, rational analysis and classical probability theory are still seen by many as the best accounts of how decisions should be made and classical probability theory is the preferred framework for cognitive modelling for many researchers. The focus of this work is quantum proba...

  8. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  9. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administe...

  10. Making ethical choices: a comprehensive decision-making model for Canadian psychologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjistavropoulos, T; Malloy, D C

    2000-05-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical augmentation of the seven-step decision-making model outlined in the Canadian Code of Ethics for Psychologists. We propose that teleological, deontological, and existential ethical perspectives should be taken into account in the decision-making process. We also consider the influence of individual, issue-specific, significant-other, situational, and external factors on ethical decision-making. This theoretical analysis demonstrates the richness and complexity of ethical decision-making.

  11. Reviewing model application to support animal health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Alexander; Salman, Mo; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

    2011-04-01

    Animal health is of societal importance as it affects human welfare, and anthropogenic interests shape decision making to assure animal health. Scientific advice to support decision making is manifold. Modelling, as one piece of the scientific toolbox, is appreciated for its ability to describe and structure data, to give insight in complex processes and to predict future outcome. In this paper we study the application of scientific modelling to support practical animal health decisions. We reviewed the 35 animal health related scientific opinions adopted by the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thirteen of these documents were based on the application of models. The review took two viewpoints, the decision maker's need and the modeller's approach. In the reviewed material three types of modelling questions were addressed by four specific model types. The correspondence between tasks and models underpinned the importance of the modelling question in triggering the modelling approach. End point quantifications were the dominating request from decision makers, implying that prediction of risk is a major need. However, due to knowledge gaps corresponding modelling studies often shed away from providing exact numbers. Instead, comparative scenario analyses were performed, furthering the understanding of the decision problem and effects of alternative management options. In conclusion, the most adequate scientific support for decision making - including available modelling capacity - might be expected if the required advice is clearly stated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. A spiral model of musical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangert, Daniel; Schubert, Emery; Fabian, Dorottya

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1) and deliberate (Type 2) decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualizes this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning toward greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural), increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion toward the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans' (2011) Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory Hammond et al. (1987), Hammond (2007), Baylor's (2001) U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorizing how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  13. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eBangert

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1 and deliberate (Type 2 decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualises this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning towards greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural, increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion towards the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011 Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond et al., 1987; Hammond, 2007, and Baylor’s (2001 U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorising how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  14. An evolutionary behavioral model for decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Lopez, Dr Oscar Javier

    2011-01-01

    For autonomous agents the problem of deciding what to do next becomes increasingly complex when acting in unpredictable and dynamic environments pursuing multiple and possibly conflicting goals. One of the most relevant behavior-based model that tries to deal with this problem is the one proposed by Maes, the Bbehavior Network model. This model proposes a set of behaviors as purposive perception-action units which are linked in a nonhierarchical network, and whose behavior selection process i...

  15. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process, National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  16. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  17. Model Driven Integrated Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard H. Weston

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making requirements and solutions are observed in four world class Manufacturing Enterprises (MEs. Observations made focus on deployed methods of complexity handling that facilitate multi-purpose, distributed decision making. Also observed are examples of partially deficient “integrated decision making” which stem from lack of understanding about how ME structural relations enable and/or constrain reachable ME behaviours. To begin to address this deficiency the paper outlines the use of a “reference model of ME decision making” which can inform the structural design of decision making systems in MEs. Also outlined is a “systematic model driven approach to modelling ME systems” which can particularise the reference model in specific case enterprises and thereby can “underpin integrated ME decision making”. Coherent decomposition and representational mechanisms have been incorporated into the model driven approach to systemise complexity handling. The paper also describes in outline an application of the modelling method in a case study ME and explains how its use has improved the integration of previously distinct planning functions. The modelling approach is particularly innovative in respect to the way it structures the coherent creation and experimental re-use of “fit for purpose” discrete event (predictive simulation models at the multiple levels of abstraction.

  18. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  19. Modelling the Role of Cognitive Metaphors in Joint Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ments, L.; Thilakarathne, D.J.; Treur, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a social agent model is presented for the influence of cognitive metaphors on joint decision making processes. The social agent model is based on mechanisms known from cognitive and social neuroscience and cognitive metaphor theory. The model was illustrated in particular for two

  20. Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  2. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  3. A communication model of shared decision making: accounting for cancer treatment decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siminoff, Laura A; Step, Mary M

    2005-07-01

    The authors present a communication model of shared decision making (CMSDM) that explicitly identifies the communication process as the vehicle for decision making in cancer treatment. In this view, decision making is necessarily a sociocommunicative process whereby people enter into a relationship, exchange information, establish preferences, and choose a course of action. The model derives from contemporary notions of behavioral decision making and ethical conceptions of the doctor-patient relationship. This article briefly reviews the theoretical approaches to decision making, notes deficiencies, and embeds a more socially based process into the dynamics of the physician-patient relationship, focusing on cancer treatment decisions. In the CMSDM, decisions depend on (a) antecedent factors that have potential to influence communication, (b) jointly constructed communication climate, and (c) treatment preferences established by the physician and the patient.

  4. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  5. Towards a Decision Making Model for City Break Travel

    OpenAIRE

    Dunne, Gerard; Flanagan, Sheila; Buckley, Joan

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the city break travel decision and in particular to develop a decision making model that reflects the characteristics of this type of trip taking. Method The research follows a sequential mixed methods approach consisting of two phases. Phase One involves a quantitative survey of 1,000 visitors to Dublin, from which city break and non city break visitor cohorts are separated and compared. Phase Two entails a qualitative analysis (involvin...

  6. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  7. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  8. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

  9. Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-09-03

    Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

  10. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to

  11. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.; Lazonder, Adrianus W.; van der Hulst, A.; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, Hendrik H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human

  12. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human

  13. Modelling Human Emotions for Tactical Decision-Making Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschedijk, Gillian C.; Lazonder, Ard W.; van der Hulst, Anja; Vink, Nathalie; Leemkuil, Henny

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characters. Study 1 compared five versions of a virtual…

  14. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

  15. The limitations of applying rational decision-making models to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this paper is to show the limitations of rational decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more specifically to the use of modern methods of contraception. In the light of factors known to influence low uptake of child spacing services in other African countries, suggestions are made to explain the ...

  16. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  17. Emergent collective decision-making: Control, model and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Tian

    In this dissertation we study emergent collective decision-making in social groups with time-varying interactions and heterogeneously informed individuals. First we analyze a nonlinear dynamical systems model motivated by animal collective motion with heterogeneously informed subpopulations, to examine the role of uninformed individuals. We find through formal analysis that adding uninformed individuals in a group increases the likelihood of a collective decision. Secondly, we propose a model for human shared decision-making with continuous-time feedback and where individuals have little information about the true preferences of other group members. We study model equilibria using bifurcation analysis to understand how the model predicts decisions based on the critical threshold parameters that represent an individual's tradeoff between social and environmental influences. Thirdly, we analyze continuous-time data of pairs of human subjects performing an experimental shared tracking task using our second proposed model in order to understand transient behavior and the decision-making process. We fit the model to data and show that it reproduces a wide range of human behaviors surprisingly well, suggesting that the model may have captured the mechanisms of observed behaviors. Finally, we study human behavior from a game-theoretic perspective by modeling the aforementioned tracking task as a repeated game with incomplete information. We show that the majority of the players are able to converge to playing Nash equilibrium strategies. We then suggest with simulations that the mean field evolution of strategies in the population resemble replicator dynamics, indicating that the individual strategies may be myopic. Decisions form the basis of control and problems involving deciding collectively between alternatives are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering. Understanding how multi-agent systems make decisions among alternatives also provides insight for designing

  18. Comprehensible knowledge model creation for cancer treatment decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Ali Khan, Wajahat; Ali, Taqdir; Lee, Sungyoung; Huh, Eui-Nam; Farooq Ahmad, Hafiz; Jamshed, Arif; Iqbal, Hassan; Irfan, Muhammad; Abbas Hydari, Manzar

    2017-03-01

    A wealth of clinical data exists in clinical documents in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). This data can be used for developing knowledge-based recommendation systems that can assist clinicians in clinical decision making and education. One of the big hurdles in developing such systems is the lack of automated mechanisms for knowledge acquisition to enable and educate clinicians in informed decision making. An automated knowledge acquisition methodology with a comprehensible knowledge model for cancer treatment (CKM-CT) is proposed. With the CKM-CT, clinical data are acquired automatically from documents. Quality of data is ensured by correcting errors and transforming various formats into a standard data format. Data preprocessing involves dimensionality reduction and missing value imputation. Predictive algorithm selection is performed on the basis of the ranking score of the weighted sum model. The knowledge builder prepares knowledge for knowledge-based services: clinical decisions and education support. Data is acquired from 13,788 head and neck cancer (HNC) documents for 3447 patients, including 1526 patients of the oral cavity site. In the data quality task, 160 staging values are corrected. In the preprocessing task, 20 attributes and 106 records are eliminated from the dataset. The Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm is selected and provides 69.0% classification accuracy in predicting HNC treatment plans, consisting of 11 decision paths that yield 11 decision rules. Our proposed methodology, CKM-CT, is helpful to find hidden knowledge in clinical documents. In CKM-CT, the prediction models are developed to assist and educate clinicians for informed decision making. The proposed methodology is generalizable to apply to data of other domains such as breast cancer with a similar objective to assist clinicians in decision making and education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A Model of Decision-Making Based on Critical Thinking

    OpenAIRE

    Uluçınar, Ufuk; Aypay, Ahmet

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationships between high school students' inquisitiveness, open-mindedness, causal thinking, and rational and intuitive decision-making dispositions through an assumed model based on research data. This study was designed in correlational model. Confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis, which are structural equation modelling applications, were used to explain these relationships. The participants were 404 students studying in five high s...

  20. Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Arnaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

  1. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

  2. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Emanuel Hess

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls. In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and healthy controls at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in healthy controls was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  3. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients' behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals' choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  4. A judgment and decision-making model for plant behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karban, Richard; Orrock, John L

    2018-06-12

    Recently plant biologists have documented that plants, like animals, engage in many activities that can be considered as behaviors, although plant biologists currently lack a conceptual framework to understand these processes. Borrowing the well-established framework developed by psychologists, we propose that plant behaviors can be constructively modeled by identifying four distinct components: 1) a cue or stimulus that provides information, 2) a judgment whereby the plant perceives and processes this informative cue, 3) a decision whereby the plant chooses among several options based on their relative costs and benefits, and 4) action. Judgment for plants can be determined empirically by monitoring signaling associated with electrical, calcium, or hormonal fluxes. Decision-making can be evaluated empirically by monitoring gene expression or differential allocation of resources. We provide examples of the utility of this judgment and decision-making framework by considering cases in which plants either successfully or unsuccessfully induced resistance against attacking herbivores. Separating judgment from decision-making suggests new analytical paradigms (i.e., Bayesian methods for judgment and economic utility models for decision-making). Following this framework, we propose an experimental approach to plant behavior that explicitly manipulates the stimuli provided to plants, uses plants that vary in sensory abilities, and examines how environmental context affects plant responses. The concepts and approaches that follow from the judgment and decision-making framework can shape how we study and understand plant-herbivore interactions, biological invasions, plant responses to climate change, and the susceptibility of plants to evolutionary traps. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  5. Translational Models of Gambling-Related Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Catharine A; Clark, Luke

    Gambling is a harmless, recreational pastime that is ubiquitous across cultures. However, for some, gambling becomes a maladaptive and compulsive, and this syndrome is conceptualized as a behavioural addiction. Laboratory models that capture the key cognitive processes involved in gambling behaviour, and that can be translated across species, have the potential to make an important contribution to both decision neuroscience and the study of addictive disorders. The Iowa gambling task has been widely used to assess human decision-making under uncertainty, and this paradigm can be successfully modelled in rodents. Similar neurobiological processes underpin choice behaviour in humans and rats, and thus, a preference for the disadvantageous "high-risk, high-reward" options may reflect meaningful vulnerability for mental health problems. However, the choice behaviour operationalized by these tasks does not necessarily approximate the vulnerability to gambling disorder (GD) per se. We consider a number of psychological challenges that apply to modelling gambling in a translational way, and evaluate the success of the existing models. Heterogeneity in the structure of gambling games, as well as in the motivations of individuals with GD, is highlighted. The potential issues with extrapolating too directly from established animal models of drug dependency are discussed, as are the inherent difficulties in validating animal models of GD in the absence of any approved treatments for GD. Further advances in modelling the cognitive biases endemic in human decision-making, which appear to be exacerbated in GD, may be a promising line of research.

  6. Mental models of decision-making in a healthcare executive

    OpenAIRE

    Long, Katrina

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The importance of shared mental models in teamwork has been explored in a diverse array of artificial work groups. This study extends such research to explore the role of mental models in the strategic decision-making of a real-world senior management group. Design/Methodology Data were collected from an intact group of senior healthcare executives (N=13) through semi-structured interviews, meeting observations and internal document analysis. Participants responded to intervi...

  7. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  8. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  9. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  10. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  11. Crisis Decision Making Through a Shared Integrative Negotiation Mental Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Santen, W.; Jonker, C.M.; Wijngaards, N.

    2009-01-01

    Decision making during crises takes place in (multi-agency) teams, in a bureaucratic political context. As a result, the common notion that during crises decision making should be done in line with a Command & Control structure is invalid. This paper shows that the best way for crisis decision

  12. A MODEL OF STUDENTS’ UNIVERSITY DECISION-MAKING BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Ionela MANIU; George C. MANIU

    2014-01-01

    Over the last decade the higher education institutional framework suffered a major transformation:the increasing influence of market competition on academic life - “marketization”.Consequently, HEI attention is increasingly focused on attracting high quality (human) resources and students. Such context demands a deeper understanding of students’ decision making process for HEI. Literature on higher education management provides a large number of models, which attempt to provide a...

  13. A dynamic dual process model of risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Trueblood, Jennifer S

    2018-03-01

    Many phenomena in judgment and decision making are often attributed to the interaction of 2 systems of reasoning. Although these so-called dual process theories can explain many types of behavior, they are rarely formalized as mathematical or computational models. Rather, dual process models are typically verbal theories, which are difficult to conclusively evaluate or test. In the cases in which formal (i.e., mathematical) dual process models have been proposed, they have not been quantitatively fit to experimental data and are often silent when it comes to the timing of the 2 systems. In the current article, we present a dynamic dual process model framework of risky decision making that provides an account of the timing and interaction of the 2 systems and can explain both choice and response-time data. We outline several predictions of the model, including how changes in the timing of the 2 systems as well as time pressure can influence behavior. The framework also allows us to explore different assumptions about how preferences are constructed by the 2 systems as well as the dynamic interaction of the 2 systems. In particular, we examine 3 different possible functional forms of the 2 systems and 2 possible ways the systems can interact (simultaneously or serially). We compare these dual process models with 2 single process models using risky decision making data from Guo, Trueblood, and Diederich (2017). Using this data, we find that 1 of the dual process models significantly outperforms the other models in accounting for both choices and response times. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  15. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  16. Mathematical modelling approach to collective decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Zabzina, Natalia

    2017-01-01

    In everyday situations individuals make decisions. For example, a tourist usually chooses a crowded or recommended restaurant to have dinner. Perhaps it is an individual decision, but the observed pattern of decision-making is a collective phenomenon. Collective behaviour emerges from the local interactions that give rise to a complex pattern at the group level. In our example, the recommendations or simple copying the choices of others make a crowded restaurant even more crowded. The rules o...

  17. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  18. Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

  19. The two-model problem in rational decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice

  20. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  1. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  2. A naturalistic decision making model for simulated human combatants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HUNTER, KEITH O.; HART, WILLIAM E.; FORSYTHE, JAMES C.

    2000-01-01

    The authors describe a naturalistic behavioral model for the simulation of small unit combat. This model, Klein's recognition-primed decision making (RPD) model, is driven by situational awareness rather than a rational process of selecting from a set of action options. They argue that simulated combatants modeled with RPD will have more flexible and realistic responses to a broad range of small-scale combat scenarios. Furthermore, they note that the predictability of a simulation using an RPD framework can be easily controlled to provide multiple evaluations of a given combat scenario. Finally, they discuss computational issues for building an RPD-based behavior engine for fully automated combatants in small conflict scenarios, which are being investigated within Sandia's Next Generation Site Security project

  3. System dynamics models as decision-making tools in agritourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jere Jakulin Tadeja

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic and social factors (tourists is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.

  4. Making decision process knowledge explicit using the product data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petrusel, R.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Dolean, Cristina; Mican, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new knowledge acquisition and formalization method: the decision mining approach. Basically, we aim to produce a model of the workflow of mental actions performed by decision makers during the decision process. We show that through the use of a Product Data Model (PDM) we

  5. Effects of dynamic agricultural decision making in an ecohydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Schneider, K.

    2012-04-01

    Due to various interdependencies between the cycles of water, carbon, nitrogen, and energy the impacts of climate change on ecohydrological systems can only be investigated in an integrative way. Furthermore, the human intervention in the environmental processes makes the system even more complex. On the one hand human impact affects natural systems. On the other hand the changing natural systems have a feedback on human decision making. One of the most important examples for this kind of interaction can be found in the agricultural sector. Management dates (planting, fertilization, harvesting) are chosen based on meteorological conditions and yield expectations. A faster development of crops under a warmer climate causes shorter cropping seasons. The choice of crops depends on their profitability, which is mainly determined by market prizes, the agro-political framework, and the (climate dependent) crop yield. This study investigates these relations for the district Günzburg located in the Upper Danube catchment in southern Germany. The modeling system DANUBIA was used to perform dynamically coupled simulations of plant growth, surface and soil hydrological processes, soil nitrogen transformations, and agricultural decision making. The agro-economic model simulates decisions on management dates (based on meteorological conditions and the crops' development state), on fertilization intensities (based on yield expectations), and on choice of crops (based on profitability). The environmental models included in DANUBIA are to a great extent process based to enable its use in a climate change scenario context. Scenario model runs until 2058 were performed using an IPCC A1B forcing. In consecutive runs, dynamic crop management, dynamic crop selection, and a changing agro-political framework were activated. Effects of these model features on hydrological and ecological variables were analyzed separately by comparing the results to a model run with constant crop

  6. THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Yuji Tamura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

  7. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  8. Architectural considerations for modeling cognitive-emotional decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lotens, W.A.; Cain, B.

    2013-01-01

    There are numerous conceptual similarities between affective and rational decision making functions despite the differences between the emotional and cognitive systems. Aspects of emotion may be considered as a concurrent stream of information processing that is coupled with explicit, rational

  9. Event Prediction for Modeling Mental Simulation in Naturalistic Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kunde, Dietmar

    2005-01-01

    ... and increasingly important asymmetric warfare scenarios. Although improvements in computer technology support more and more detailed representations, human decision making is still far from being automated in a realistic way...

  10. Intelligent decision-making models for production and retail operations

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Zhaoxia

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.

  11. Unanimity rule and organizational decision-making : a simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romme, A.G.L.

    2004-01-01

    Unanimity rule is an important benchmark for evaluating outcomes of decisions in the social sciences. However, organizational researchers tend to ignore unanimous decision making, for example, because unanimity may be difficult to realize in large groups and may suffer from individual participants

  12. Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

  13. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  14. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  15. Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern

  16. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zargari Marandi, Ramtin; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  17. Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Neural Model based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh P N Rao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. Actions are selected based not on a single optimal estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the belief state. We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize

  18. Context-dependent decision-making: a simple Bayesian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Kevin; Leslie, David S

    2013-05-06

    Many phenomena in animal learning can be explained by a context-learning process whereby an animal learns about different patterns of relationship between environmental variables. Differentiating between such environmental regimes or 'contexts' allows an animal to rapidly adapt its behaviour when context changes occur. The current work views animals as making sequential inferences about current context identity in a world assumed to be relatively stable but also capable of rapid switches to previously observed or entirely new contexts. We describe a novel decision-making model in which contexts are assumed to follow a Chinese restaurant process with inertia and full Bayesian inference is approximated by a sequential-sampling scheme in which only a single hypothesis about current context is maintained. Actions are selected via Thompson sampling, allowing uncertainty in parameters to drive exploration in a straightforward manner. The model is tested on simple two-alternative choice problems with switching reinforcement schedules and the results compared with rat behavioural data from a number of T-maze studies. The model successfully replicates a number of important behavioural effects: spontaneous recovery, the effect of partial reinforcement on extinction and reversal, the overtraining reversal effect, and serial reversal-learning effects.

  19. Assessing testamentary and decision-making capacity: Approaches and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Kelly; Rosenfeld, Tuly

    2015-09-01

    The need for better and more accurate assessments of testamentary and decision-making capacity grows as Australian society ages and incidences of mentally disabling conditions increase. Capacity is a legal determination, but one on which medical opinion is increasingly being sought. The difficulties inherent within capacity assessments are exacerbated by the ad hoc approaches adopted by legal and medical professionals based on individual knowledge and skill, as well as the numerous assessment paradigms that exist. This can negatively affect the quality of assessments, and results in confusion as to the best way to assess capacity. This article begins by assessing the nature of capacity. The most common general assessment models used in Australia are then discussed, as are the practical challenges associated with capacity assessment. The article concludes by suggesting a way forward to satisfactorily assess legal capacity given the significant ramifications of getting it wrong.

  20. Cognitive balanced model: a conceptual scheme of diagnostic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucchiari, Claudio; Pravettoni, Gabriella

    2012-02-01

    Diagnostic reasoning is a critical aspect of clinical performance, having a high impact on quality and safety of care. Although diagnosis is fundamental in medicine, we still have a poor understanding of the factors that determine its course. According to traditional understanding, all information used in diagnostic reasoning is objective and logically driven. However, these conditions are not always met. Although we would be less likely to make an inaccurate diagnosis when following rational decision making, as described by normative models, the real diagnostic process works in a different way. Recent work has described the major cognitive biases in medicine as well as a number of strategies for reducing them, collectively called debiasing techniques. However, advances have encountered obstacles in achieving implementation into clinical practice. While traditional understanding of clinical reasoning has failed to consider contextual factors, most debiasing techniques seem to fail in raising sound and safer medical praxis. Technological solutions, being data driven, are fundamental in increasing care safety, but they need to consider human factors. Thus, balanced models, cognitive driven and technology based, are needed in day-to-day applications to actually improve the diagnostic process. The purpose of this article, then, is to provide insight into cognitive influences that have resulted in wrong, delayed or missed diagnosis. Using a cognitive approach, we describe the basis of medical error, with particular emphasis on diagnostic error. We then propose a conceptual scheme of the diagnostic process by the use of fuzzy cognitive maps. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Utility Function for modeling Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti

    2016-01-01

    To assist in the decision making process, several multicriteria methods have been proposed. However, the existing methods assume a single decision-maker and do not consider decision under risk, which is better addressed by Game Theory. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a Utility Function that makes it possible to model Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games. The advantage of using Game Theory for solving Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems is to evaluate th...

  2. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  3. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  4. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of

  5. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  6. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  7. Mathematical models of decision making on space vehicle motion control at fuzzy conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arslanov, M.Z.; Ismail, E.E.; Oryspaev, D.O.

    2005-01-01

    the structure of decision making for control of spacecraft motion is considered. Mathematical models of decision making problems are investigated. New methods of criteria convolution are received. New convolution have properties of smoothness. (author)

  8. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    OpenAIRE

    R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

  9. A Social Constructivism Model of Ethical Decision Making in Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottone, R. Rocco

    2001-01-01

    Examines social constructivism as an intellectual movement in the mental health field that directs a social consensual interpretation of reality. Presents a social constructivism approach to counseling which redefines the ethical decision-making process as an interactive rather than individual or intrapsychic process. Explores how the process…

  10. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  11. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

    2003-06-01

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

  12. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

    2003-06-01

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria.

  13. A decision-making model based on a spiking neural circuit and synaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hui; Bu, Yijie; Dai, Dawei

    2017-10-01

    To adapt to the environment and survive, most animals can control their behaviors by making decisions. The process of decision-making and responding according to cues in the environment is stable, sustainable, and learnable. Understanding how behaviors are regulated by neural circuits and the encoding and decoding mechanisms from stimuli to responses are important goals in neuroscience. From results observed in Drosophila experiments, the underlying decision-making process is discussed, and a neural circuit that implements a two-choice decision-making model is proposed to explain and reproduce the observations. Compared with previous two-choice decision making models, our model uses synaptic plasticity to explain changes in decision output given the same environment. Moreover, biological meanings of parameters of our decision-making model are discussed. In this paper, we explain at the micro-level (i.e., neurons and synapses) how observable decision-making behavior at the macro-level is acquired and achieved.

  14. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  15. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  16. Judgment and Decision Making in Outdoor Adventure Leadership: A Dual-Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, Clinton A.

    2016-01-01

    From an examination of the current textbooks and literature concerning judgment and decision-making models used in outdoor adventure leadership, it is easy to see that they are still deeply rooted in the classical decision-making theory. In this article, I will (a) outline the importance of good judgment and decision making in an outdoor adventure…

  17. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

  18. Justification of the concept of mathematical methods and models in making decisions on taxation

    OpenAIRE

    KORKUNA NATALIA MIKHAYLOVNA

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents the concept of the application of mathematical methods and models in making decisions on taxation in Ukraine as a phased process. Its performance result is the selection of an effective decision based on regression and optimization models.

  19. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

  20. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinert, Joshua M.; Apostolakis, George E.

    2006-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the risk achievement worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ΔCDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study

  1. Emotion and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-03

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  2. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, P.R.; Coles, G.; Shoemaker, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present CARIM, a decision support tool to aid in the evaluation of plans for converting control systems to digital instruments. The model provides the capability to optimize planning and resource allocation to reduce risk from multiple safety and economic perspectives. (author)

  3. Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

    2015-11-11

    Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

  4. Decision Making and Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

  5. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

  6. A novel sustainable decision making model for municipal solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, M.-L.; Ma Hwongwen; Yang, W.-F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM models can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion, and has little effect on decision making in most research efforts. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process, and the methods have sought to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders' complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision. The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid in decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. A case study for food waste management in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model

  7. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

  8. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  9. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Bakanauskienė Irena; Baronienė Laura

    2017-01-01

    This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been u...

  10. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanauskienė Irena

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been unified conditions, describing the case of controlled interventions thus providing preconditions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed decision-making process model.

  11. Strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...

  12. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  13. [Decision making in cariology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

    2003-01-01

    By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

  14. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Ma

    Full Text Available Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  15. An agent-based model for integrated emotion regulation and contagion in socially affected decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Manzoor, A.; Treur, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses an agent-based computational social agent model for the integration of emotion regulation, emotion contagion and decision making in a social context. The model integrates emotion-related valuing, in order to analyse the role of emotions in socially affected decision making. The agent-based model is illustrated for the interaction between two persons. Simulation experiments for different kinds of scenarios help to understand how decisions can be affected by regulating the ...

  16. An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

    2004-01-01

    The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

  17. An agent-based model for integrated emotion regulation and contagion in socially affected decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manzoor, A.; Treur, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses an agent-based computational social agent model for the integration of emotion regulation, emotion contagion and decision making in a social context. The model integrates emotion-related valuing, in order to analyse the role of emotions in socially affected decision making. The

  18. Modelling Joint Decision Making Processes Involving Emotion-Related Valuing and Mutual Empathic Understanding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a social agent model for joint decision making is presented addressing the role of mutually acknowledged empathic understanding in the decision making. The model is based on principles from recent neurological theories on mirror neurons, internal simulation, and emotion-related

  19. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingquan

    2006-01-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  20. Model of Decision Making through Consensus in Ranking Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarigan, Gim; Darnius, Open

    2018-01-01

    The basic problem to determine ranking consensus is a problem to combine some rankings those are decided by two or more Decision Maker (DM) into ranking consensus. DM is frequently asked to present their preferences over a group of objects in terms of ranks, for example to determine a new project, new product, a candidate in a election, and so on. The problem in ranking can be classified into two major categories; namely, cardinal and ordinal rankings. The objective of the study is to obtin the ranking consensus by appying some algorithms and methods. The algorithms and methods used in this study were partial algorithm, optimal ranking consensus, BAK (Borde-Kendal)Model. A method proposed as an alternative in ranking conssensus is a Weighted Distance Forward-Backward (WDFB) method, which gave a little difference i ranking consensus result compare to the result oethe example solved by Cook, et.al (2005).

  1. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  3. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  4. Moral and Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-01

    rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal

  5. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  6. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  7. Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2006-11-01

    Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

  8. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  9. IT investment decision making : Usability of a normative model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnhoven, Alphonsus B.J.M.; Heerkens, Johannes M.G.

    This article analyzes the usability of a multi-criteria decision analysis based on a real options AHP (ROAHP) method for IT-investment decisions. The study presents ROAHP to Chief Information Officers (CIO’s) and collects their opinions on prerequisites for usability, strengths and weaknesses. To

  10. Decision making and imperfection

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2013-01-01

    Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

  11. Examination of a Group Counseling Model of Career Decision Making with College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, P. Clay; Mobley, A. Keith; Kemer, Gulsah; Giordano, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    The authors examined the effectiveness of a group career counseling model (Pyle, K. R., 2007) on college students' career decision-making abilities. They used a Solomon 4-group design and found that students who participated in the career counseling groups had significantly greater increases in career decision-making abilities than those who…

  12. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  13. Principles of Classroom Management: A Professional Decision-Making Model, 7th Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, James; Nolan, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This text takes a decision-making model approach to classroom management. It provides teachers with a very practical system to influence students to choose to behave productively and to strive for academic success. This widely used text presents an array of decision-making options that guide teachers in developing positive, pro-social classroom…

  14. Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuojun Yi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

  15. Hybrid Decision Making: When Interpretable Models Collaborate With Black-Box Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Tong

    2018-01-01

    Interpretable machine learning models have received increasing interest in recent years, especially in domains where humans are involved in the decision-making process. However, the possible loss of the task performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable. This performance downgrade puts practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between a top-performing black-box model with no explanations and an interpretable model with unsatisfying task performance. In this work, we propose a nove...

  16. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  17. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISIONMAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popovici Ioana

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

  18. Decision making in water resource planning: Models and computer graphics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedra, K; Carlsen, A J [ed.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes some basic concepts of simulation-based decision support systems for water resources management and the role of symbolic, graphics-based user interfaces. Designed to allow direct and easy access to advanced methods of analysis and decision support for a broad and heterogeneous group of users, these systems combine data base management, system simulation, operations research techniques such as optimization, interactive data analysis, elements of advanced decision technology, and artificial intelligence, with a friendly and conversational, symbolic display oriented user interface. Important features of the interface are the use of several parallel or alternative styles of interaction and display, indlucing colour graphics and natural language. Combining quantitative numerical methods with qualitative and heuristic approaches, and giving the user direct and interactive control over the systems function, human knowledge, experience and judgement are integrated with formal approaches into a tightly coupled man-machine system through an intelligent and easily accessible user interface. 4 drawings, 42 references.

  19. The rational choice model in family decision making at the end of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karasz, Alison; Sacajiu, Galit; Kogan, Misha; Watkins, Liza

    2010-01-01

    Most end-of-life decisions are made by family members. Current ethical guidelines for family decision making are based on a hierarchical model that emphasizes the patient's wishes over his or her best interests. Evidence suggests that the model poorly reflects the strategies and priorities of many families. Researchers observed and recorded 26 decision-making meetings between hospital staff and family members. Semi-structured follow-up interviews were conducted. Transcriptions were analyzed using qualitative techniques. For both staff and families, consideration of a patient's best interests generally took priority over the patient's wishes. Staff generally introduced discussion of the patient's wishes for rhetorical purposes, such as persuasion. Competing moral frameworks, which de-emphasized the salience of patients' autonomy and "right to choose," played a role in family decision making. The priority given to the patients' wishes in the hierarchical model does not reflect the priorities of staff and families in making decisions about end-of-life care.

  20. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  1. A Dynamic Model for Decision Making During Memory Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-26

    a  knowledge  task  (pseudo-­‐ lexical  decision),  a  perceptual  task  (perceptual  identification),  and  an  episodic... lexical decision), a perceptual task (perceptual identification), and an episodic recognition task (recognition memory for occurrence of a test item...Topics in Cognitive Science, 4(1), 135-150. Cox, G. E., Kachergis, G., and Shiffrin, R. M. (2012). Gaussian process regression for trajectory analysis . In

  2. A conceptual model for ethical business decision-making under the influence of personal relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Davidrajuh, Reggie

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual model for ethical business decision-making. The purpose of this model is to explore the ethical implications of personal relationship in business exchanges. Firstly, this paper introduces personal relationship in business exchanges. Secondly, three normative theories of ethics that are relevant to the business environment are presented. Thirdly, a literature study on the existing models and frameworks for ethical business decision-making is pres...

  3. Emotion, Decision-Making and Substance Dependence: A Somatic-Marker Model of Addiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdejo-García, A; Pérez-García, M; Bechara, A

    2006-01-01

    Similar to patients with orbitofrontal cortex lesions, substance dependent individuals (SDI) show signs of impairments in decision-making, characterised by a tendency to choose the immediate reward at the expense of severe negative future consequences. The somatic-marker hypothesis proposes that decision-making depends in many important ways on neural substrates that regulate homeostasis, emotion and feeling. According to this model, there should be a link between abnormalities in experiencing emotions in SDI, and their severe impairments in decision-making in real-life. Growing evidence from neuroscientific studies suggests that core aspects of substance addiction may be explained in terms of abnormal emotional guidance of decision-making. Behavioural studies have revealed emotional processing and decision-making deficits in SDI. Combined neuropsychological and physiological assessment has demonstrated that the poorer decision-making of SDI is associated with altered reactions to reward and punishing events. Imaging studies have shown that impaired decision-making in addiction is associated with abnormal functioning of a distributed neural network critical for the processing of emotional information, including the ventromedial cortex, the amygdala, the striatum, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the insular/somato-sensory cortices, as well as non-specific neurotransmitter systems that modulate activities of neural processes involved in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to review this growing evidence, and to examine the extent of which these studies support a somatic-marker model of addiction. PMID:18615136

  4. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  5. A Review of Contemporary Ethical Decision-Making Models for Mental Health Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Perry C.

    2015-01-01

    Mental health professionals are faced with increasingly complex ethical decisions that are impacted by culture, personal and professional values, and the contexts in which they and their clients inhabit. This article presents the reasons for developing and implementing multiple ethical decision making models and reviews four models that address…

  6. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

  7. PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL FOR THE STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES FROM THE ROMANIAN ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan STEFANESCU

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a prescriptive model for the strategic decision-making from the Romanianenterprises. Within the paper there will be described the phases implied in solving a strategicproblem. Finally, there will be presented a strategic decision from a Romanian enterprise, elaboratedon the base of the model.

  8. A model of reward- and effort-based optimal decision making and motor control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lionel Rigoux

    Full Text Available Costs (e.g. energetic expenditure and benefits (e.g. food are central determinants of behavior. In ecology and economics, they are combined to form a utility function which is maximized to guide choices. This principle is widely used in neuroscience as a normative model of decision and action, but current versions of this model fail to consider how decisions are actually converted into actions (i.e. the formation of trajectories. Here, we describe an approach where decision making and motor control are optimal, iterative processes derived from the maximization of the discounted, weighted difference between expected rewards and foreseeable motor efforts. The model accounts for decision making in cost/benefit situations, and detailed characteristics of control and goal tracking in realistic motor tasks. As a normative construction, the model is relevant to address the neural bases and pathological aspects of decision making and motor control.

  9. Models for Rational Decision Making. Analysis of Literature and Selected Bibliography. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John S.

    This review analyzes the trend in educational decision making to replace hierarchical authority structures with more rational models for decision making drawn from management science. Emphasis is also placed on alternatives to a hierarchical decision-making model, including governing models, union models, and influence models. A 54-item…

  10. A conceptual model of the role of communication in surrogate decision making for hospitalized adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torke, Alexia M; Petronio, Sandra; Sachs, Greg A; Helft, Paul R; Purnell, Christianna

    2012-04-01

    To build a conceptual model of the role of communication in decision making, based on literature from medicine, communication studies and medical ethics. We proposed a model and described each construct in detail. We review what is known about interpersonal and patient-physician communication, described literature about surrogate-clinician communication, and discussed implications for our developing model. The communication literature proposes two major elements of interpersonal communication: information processing and relationship building. These elements are composed of constructs such as information disclosure and emotional support that are likely to be relevant to decision making. We propose these elements of communication impact decision making, which in turn affects outcomes for both patients and surrogates. Decision making quality may also mediate the relationship between communication and outcomes. Although many elements of the model have been studied in relation to patient-clinician communication, there is limited data about surrogate decision making. There is evidence of high surrogate distress associated with decision making that may be alleviated by communication-focused interventions. More research is needed to test the relationships proposed in the model. Good communication with surrogates may improve both the quality of medical decisions and outcomes for the patient and surrogate. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    M. A., Burhanuddin; Halawani, Sami M.; Ahmad, A. R.

    2011-01-01

    Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it c...

  12. Traits and states: Integrating personality and affect into a model of criminal decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gelder, J.L.; de Vries, R.E.

    2012-01-01

    We propose and test a model of criminal decision making that integrates the individual differences perspective with research and theorizing on proximal factors. The individual differences perspective is operationalized using the recent HEXACO personality structure. This structure incorporates the

  13. A hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for green ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for green supplier selection. ... Hence,supplier selection is significant factor in supply chain success. ... reduce purchasing cost, lead time and improve quality and environmental issue.

  14. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ecklund, Marshall V

    2005-01-01

    .... Thus, the central research question is as follows: Given a report of the physical location of an evader, is the military using the most rational decision-making model to offset the predictable nature of traditional recovery activities...

  15. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  16. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Huang

    Full Text Available A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1 computing beliefs (posterior distributions over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2 selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  17. Service Level Decision-making in Rural Physiotherapy: Development of Conceptual Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Robyn; Jones, Anne; Lefmann, Sophie; Sheppard, Lorraine

    2016-06-01

    Understanding decision-making about health service provision is increasingly important in an environment of increasing demand and constrained resources. Multiple factors are likely to influence decisions about which services will be provided, yet workforce is the most noted factor in the rural physiotherapy literature. This paper draws together results obtained from exploration of service level decision-making (SLDM) to propose 'conceptual' models of rural physiotherapy SLDM. A prioritized qualitative approach enabled exploration of participant perspectives about rural physiotherapy decision-making. Stakeholder perspectives were obtained through surveys and in-depth interviews. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and reviewed by participants. Participant confidentiality was maintained by coding both participants and sites. A system theory-case study heuristic provided a framework for exploration across sites within the investigation area: a large area of one Australian state with a mix of regional, rural and remote communities. Thirty-nine surveys were received from participants in 11 communities. Nineteen in-depth interviews were conducted with physiotherapists and key decision-makers. Results reveal the complexity of factors influencing rural physiotherapy service provision and the value of a systems approach when exploring decision-making about rural physiotherapy service provision. Six key features were identified that formed the rural physiotherapy SLDM system: capacity and capability; contextual influences; layered decision-making; access issues; value and beliefs; and tensions and conflict. Rural physiotherapy SLDM is not a one-dimensional process but results from the complex interaction of clusters of systems issues. Decision-making about physiotherapy service provision is influenced by both internal and external factors. Similarities in influencing factors and the iterative nature of decision-making emerged, which enabled linking physiotherapy SLDM with

  18. Decision making on fitness landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

    2017-04-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

  19. Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

  20. Enabling Integrated Decision Making for Electronic-Commerce by Modelling an Enterprise's Sharable Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Henry M.

    2000-01-01

    An enterprise model, a computational model of knowledge about an enterprise, is a useful tool for integrated decision-making by e-commerce suppliers and customers. Sharable knowledge, once represented in an enterprise model, can be integrated by the modeled enterprise's e-commerce partners. Presents background on enterprise modeling, followed by…

  1. Patient participation in collective healthcare decision making: the Dutch model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Bovenkamp, H.; Trappenburg, M.J.; Grit, K.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To study whether the Dutch participation model is a good model of participation. Background Patient participation is on the agenda, both on the individual and the collective level. In this study, we focus on the latter by looking at the Dutch model in which patient organizations are

  2. Patient participation in collective healthcare decision making: the Dutch model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Bovenkamp, H.M.; Trappenburg, M.J.; Grit, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    Objective  To study whether the Dutch participation model is a good model of participation. Background  Patient participation is on the agenda, both on the individual and the collective level. In this study, we focus on the latter by looking at the Dutch model in which patient organizations are

  3. Patient participation in collective healthcare decision making: the Dutch model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bovenkamp, H. van de; Trappenburg, M.J.; Grit, K. J.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To study whether the Dutch participation model is a good model of participation. Background Patient participation is on the agenda, both on the individual and the collective level. In this study, we focus on the latter by looking at the Dutch model in which patient organizations are

  4. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian N. Marewski

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a methodological primer on how detailed cognitive architectures such as ACT-R allow remedying these problems. To make our point, we address a controversy, namely, whether noncompensatory or compensatory processes better describe how people make decisions from the accessibility of memories. We specify 39 models of accessibility-based decision processes in ACT-R, including the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and various other popular noncompensatory and compensatory decision models. Additionally, to illustrate how such models can be tested, we conduct a model comparison, fitting the models to one experiment and letting them generalize to another. Behavioral data are best accounted for by race models. These race models embody the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and compensatory models as a race between competing processes, dissolving the dichotomy between existing decision models.

  5. Context-dependent decision-making: a simple Bayesian model

    OpenAIRE

    Lloyd, Kevin; Leslie, David S.

    2013-01-01

    Many phenomena in animal learning can be explained by a context-learning process whereby an animal learns about different patterns of relationship between environmental variables. Differentiating between such environmental regimes or ‘contexts’ allows an animal to rapidly adapt its behaviour when context changes occur. The current work views animals as making sequential inferences about current context identity in a world assumed to be relatively stable but also capable of rapid switches to p...

  6. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    OpenAIRE

    Aliakbar Farhangi; Seyed Reza Seyed Javadin; Majid balali; Seyed Badredin Ahmadi

    2010-01-01

    Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran u...

  7. Decision Support Systems and the Conflict Model of Decision Making: A Stimulus for New Computer-Assisted Careers Guidance Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantine, R. Malcolm

    Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are computer-based decision aids to use when making decisions which are partially amenable to rational decision-making procedures but contain elements where intuitive judgment is an essential component. In such situations, DSSs are used to improve the quality of decision-making. The DSS approach is based on Simon's…

  8. Decision making in goverment tenders: A formalized qualitative model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Štěpán Veselý

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a simple formalized qualitative model of government tenders (GTs. Qualitative models use just three values: Positive/Increasing, Zero/Constant and Negative/Decreasing. Such quantifiers of trends are the least information intensive. Qualitative models can be useful, since GT evaluation often includes such goals as e.g. efficiency of public purchasing, and variables as e.g. availability of relevant information or subjectivity of judgment, that are difficult to quantify. Hence, a significant fraction of available information about GTs is not of numerical nature, e.g. if availability of relevant information is decreasing then efficiency of public purchasing is decreasing as well. Such equationless relations are studied in this paper. A qualitative model of the function F(Goals, Variables is developed. The model has four goal functions, eight variables, and 39 equationless relations. The model is solved and seven solutions, i.e. scenarios are obtained. All qualitative states, including first and second qualitative derivatives with respect to time, of all variables are specified for each scenario. Any unsteady state behavior of the GT model is described by its transitional oriented graph. There are eight possible transitions among seven scenarios. No a priori knowledge of qualitative modeling is required on the reader’s part.

  9. Graph-based Models for Data and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-16

    most softwru-e) do not allow extemal synchronization. This is a generalized version of the MATB developed to assess multitasking in pilot -like... Multitasking …………………………...2 1.7 ACT-R and LBA Model Mimicry Reveals Similarity Across Levels of Analysis……..2 1.8 Exploring Individual Differences via...Netherlands, April 9-11, 39-44.) 1.6 Modeling the Workload of Capacity of Visual Multitasking We are extending the application of the capacity

  10. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

  11. Culinary Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  12. Research of Strategic Alliance Stable Decision-making Model Based on Rough Set and DEA

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang Yi

    2013-01-01

    This article uses rough set theory for stability evaluation system of strategic alliance at first. Uses data analysis method for reduction, eliminates redundant indexes. Selected 6 enterprises as a decision-making unit, then select 4 inputs and 2 outputs indexes data, using DEA model to calculate, analysis reasons for poor benefit of decision-making unit, find out improvement direction and quantity for changing, provide a reference for the alliance stability.

  13. A Decision-Making Model of Social Shopping in Franchising: Assessing Collaboration Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    In Lee; Choong-Kwon Lee; Sangjin Yoo; Moo-Jin Choi

    2015-01-01

    Our paper develops a decision-making model of social shopping in franchising to understand impacts of various collaboration strategies on profits of a social intermediary, a franchisor, and a franchisee. Three decision variables are considered to make a daily deal promotion in a manner that results in optimal profits: the social intermediary's advertising expense, the franchisee's service quality expense, and the franchisor's financial assistance to the franchisee. The analysis shows that whi...

  14. PROCESSING THE INFORMATION CONTENT ON THE BASIS OF FUZZY NEURAL MODEL OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina V. Komleva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the issues of mathematical modeling of the decision-making process of information content processing based on the fuzzy neural network TSK. Integral rating assessment of the content, which is necessary for taking a decision about its further usage, is made depended on varying characteristics. Mechanism for building individual trajectory and forming individual competence is provided to make the intellectual content search.

  15. A model for amalgamation in group decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutello, Vincenzo; Montero, Javier

    1992-01-01

    In this paper we present a generalization of the model proposed by Montero, by allowing non-complete fuzzy binary relations for individuals. A degree of unsatisfaction can be defined in this case, suggesting that any democratic aggregation rule should take into account not only ethical conditions or some degree of rationality in the amalgamating procedure, but also a minimum support for the set of alternatives subject to the group analysis.

  16. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  17. Organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

  18. [Interoception and decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Hideki

    2015-02-01

    We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

  19. Decision making and cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Making training decisions proactively

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, R.F.

    1988-01-01

    The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities

  1. Decision Making: The Underdeveloped Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Robert

    1974-01-01

    Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)

  2. A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capelo, Carlos; Dias, Joao Ferreira

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term…

  3. Research on the decision-making model of land-use spatial optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jianhua; Yu, Yan; Liu, Yanfang; Liang, Fei; Cai, Yuqiu

    2009-10-01

    Using the optimization result of landscape pattern and land use structure optimization as constraints of CA simulation results, a decision-making model of land use spatial optimization is established coupled the landscape pattern model with cellular automata to realize the land use quantitative and spatial optimization simultaneously. And Huangpi district is taken as a case study to verify the rationality of the model.

  4. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  5. Hospice decision making: diagnosis makes a difference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann

    2012-10-01

    This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.

  6. The application of the heuristic-systematic processing model to treatment decision making about prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steginga, Suzanne K; Occhipinti, Stefano

    2004-01-01

    The study investigated the utility of the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model as a framework for the investigation of patient decision making. A total of 111 men recently diagnosed with localized prostate cancer were assessed using Verbal Protocol Analysis and self-report measures. Study variables included men's use of nonsystematic and systematic information processing, desire for involvement in decision making, and the individual differences of health locus of control, tolerance of ambiguity, and decision-related uncertainty. Most men (68%) preferred that decision making be shared equally between them and their doctor. Men's use of the expert opinion heuristic was related to men's verbal reports of decisional uncertainty and having a positive orientation to their doctor and medical care; a desire for greater involvement in decision making was predicted by a high internal locus of health control. Trends were observed for systematic information processing to increase when the heuristic strategy used was negatively affect laden and when men were uncertain about the probabilities for cure and side effects. There was a trend for decreased systematic processing when the expert opinion heuristic was used. Findings were consistent with the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model and suggest that this model has utility for future research in applied decision making about health.

  7. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    OpenAIRE

    SM Turpin; MA Marais

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

  8. Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

    2012-08-01

    A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

  9. Neural mechanisms regulating different forms of risk-related decision-making: Insights from animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Moorman, David E; Young, Jared W; Setlow, Barry; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-11-01

    Over the past 20 years there has been a growing interest in the neural underpinnings of cost/benefit decision-making. Recent studies with animal models have made considerable advances in our understanding of how different prefrontal, striatal, limbic and monoaminergic circuits interact to promote efficient risk/reward decision-making, and how dysfunction in these circuits underlies aberrant decision-making observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. This review will highlight recent findings from studies exploring these questions using a variety of behavioral assays, as well as molecular, pharmacological, neurophysiological, and translational approaches. We begin with a discussion of how neural systems related to decision subcomponents may interact to generate more complex decisions involving risk and uncertainty. This is followed by an overview of interactions between prefrontal-amygdala-dopamine and habenular circuits in regulating choice between certain and uncertain rewards and how different modes of dopamine transmission may contribute to these processes. These data will be compared with results from other studies investigating the contribution of some of these systems to guiding decision-making related to rewards vs. punishment. Lastly, we provide a brief summary of impairments in risk-related decision-making associated with psychiatric disorders, highlighting recent translational studies in laboratory animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for trigeneration system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jiangjiang; Jing Youyin; Zhang Chunfa; Shi Guohua; Zhang Xutao

    2008-01-01

    The decision making for trigeneration systems is a compositive project and it should be evaluated and compared in a multi-criteria analysis method. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model (FMCDM) for trigeneration systems selection and evaluation. The multi-criteria decision-making methods are briefly reviewed combining the general decision-making process. Then the fuzzy set theory, weighting method and the FMCDM model are presented. Finally, several kinds of trigeneration systems, whose dynamical sources are, respectively stirling engine, gas turbine, gas engine and solid oxide fuel cell, are compared and evaluated with a separate generation system. The case for selecting the optimal trigeneration system applied to a residential building is assessed from the technical, economical, environmental and social aspects, and the FMCDM model combining analytic hierarchical process is applied to the trigeneration case to demonstrate the decision-making process and effectiveness of proposed model. The results show that the gas engine plus lithium bromide absorption water heater/chiller unit for the residential building is the best scheme in the five options

  11. The interrogation decision-making model: A general theoretical framework for confessions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yueran; Guyll, Max; Madon, Stephanie

    2017-02-01

    This article presents a new model of confessions referred to as the interrogation decision-making model . This model provides a theoretical umbrella with which to understand and analyze suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt in the context of a custodial interrogation. The model draws upon expected utility theory to propose a mathematical account of the psychological mechanisms that not only underlie suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt at any specific point during an interrogation, but also how confession decisions can change over time. Findings from the extant literature pertaining to confessions are considered to demonstrate how the model offers a comprehensive and integrative framework for organizing a range of effects within a limited set of model parameters. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Ethical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Zsolnai, László

    2011-01-01

    The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

  13. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  14. Strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

  15. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  16. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  17. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  18. DIAMOND: A model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettings, M.; Hirst, E.; Yourstone, E.

    1991-02-01

    Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Substantial uncertainties exist concerning future load growth; the lifetimes and performances of existing power plants; the construction times, costs, and performances of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment in which utilities operate. This report describes a utility planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions. The key features of this model are its explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and the ability to change prior decisions. The primary strength of this model is its representation of the planning and decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, canceled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side management programs can be changed from year to year, reflecting the short lead time and small unit size of these resources. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources. The model is called DIAMOND, Decision Impact Assessment Model. In consists of four submodels: FUTURES, FORECAST, SIMULATION, and DECISION. It runs on any IBM-compatible PC and requires no special software or hardware. 19 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs.

  19. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

  20. Business model change : Managerial roles and tactics in decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Oever, Koen; Martin, Xavier; Baden-Fuller, Charles; Mangematin, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    We study the decision-making process behind business model change, focusing specifically on the tactics managers employ to gain support for such changes. We first argue for the prominent role of middle management in business model change, and second, we revisit the literature on issue selling and

  1. Observing the observer (I): meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daunizeau, J.; Ouden, H.E.M. den; Pessiglione, M.; Kiebel, S.J.; Stephan, K.E.; Friston, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which

  2. Licensing method for new nuclear power plant: A study on decision making modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C.

    2012-01-01

    This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions

  3. Licensing method for new nuclear power plant: A study on decision making modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions.

  4. Challenges Associated With Applying Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for Public Health Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    The development and application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in chemical toxicology have grown steadily since their emergence in the 1980s. However, critical evaluation of PBPK models to support public health decision-making across federal agencies has t...

  5. Make or buy decision model with multi-stage manufacturing process and supplier imperfect quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratama, Mega Aria; Rosyidi, Cucuk Nur

    2017-11-01

    This research develops an make or buy decision model considering supplier imperfect quality. This model can be used to help companies make the right decision in case of make or buy component with the best quality and the least cost in multistage manufacturing process. The imperfect quality is one of the cost component that must be minimizing in this model. Component with imperfect quality, not necessarily defective. It still can be rework and used for assembly. This research also provide a numerical example and sensitivity analysis to show how the model work. We use simulation and help by crystal ball to solve the numerical problem. The sensitivity analysis result show that percentage of imperfect generally not affect to the model significantly, and the model is not sensitive to changes in these parameters. This is because the imperfect cost are smaller than overall total cost components.

  6. A preference aggregation model and application in AHP-group decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Taiyi; Yang, De; Chao, Xiangrui

    2018-04-01

    Group decision making process integrate individual preferences to obtain the group preference by applying aggregation rules and preference relations. The two most useful approaches, the aggregation of individual judgements and the aggregation of individual priorities, traditionally are employed in the Analytic Hierarchy Process to deal with group decision making problems. In both cases, it is assumed that the group preference is approximate weighted mathematical expectation of individual judgements and individual priorities. We propose new preference aggregation methods using optimization models in order to obtain group preference which is close to all individual priorities. Some illustrative examples are finally examined to demonstrate proposed models for application.

  7. Knowledge Co-production Strategies for Water Resources Modeling and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.

    2016-12-01

    The limited impact of scientific information on policy making and climate adaptation in North America has raised awareness of the need for new modeling strategies and knowledge transfer processes. This paper outlines the rationale for a new paradigm in water resources modeling and management, using examples from the USA and Canada. Principles include anticipatory modeling, complex system dynamics, decision making under uncertainty, visualization, capacity to represent and manipulate critical trade-offs, stakeholder engagement, local knowledge, context-specific activities, social learning, vulnerability analysis, iterative and collaborative modeling, and the concept of a boundary organization. In this framework, scientists and stakeholders are partners in the production and dissemination of knowledge for decision making, and local knowledge is fused with scientific observation and methodology. Discussion draws from experience in building long-term collaborative boundary organizations in Phoenix, Arizona in the USA and the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) in Canada. Examples of boundary spanning activities include the use of visualization, the concept of a decision theater, infrastructure to support social learning, social networks, and reciprocity, simulation modeling to explore "what if" scenarios of the future, surveys to elicit how water problems are framed by scientists and stakeholders, and humanistic activities (theatrical performances, art exhibitions, etc.) to draw attention to local water issues. The social processes surrounding model development and dissemination are at least as important as modeling assumptions, procedures, and results in determining whether scientific knowledge will be used effectively for water resources decision making.

  8. Relevance of behavioral and social models to the study of consumer energy decision making and behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, B.A.

    1980-11-01

    This report reviews social and behavioral science models and techniques for their possible use in understanding and predicting consumer energy decision making and behaviors. A number of models and techniques have been developed that address different aspects of the decision process, use different theoretical bases and approaches, and have been aimed at different audiences. Three major areas of discussion were selected: (1) models of adaptation to social change, (2) decision making and choice, and (3) diffusion of innovation. Within these three areas, the contributions of psychologists, sociologists, economists, marketing researchers, and others were reviewed. Five primary components of the models were identified and compared. The components are: (1) situational characteristics, (2) product characteristics, (3) individual characteristics, (4) social influences, and (5) the interaction or decision rules. The explicit use of behavioral and social science models in energy decision-making and behavior studies has been limited. Examples are given of a small number of energy studies which applied and tested existing models in studying the adoption of energy conservation behaviors and technologies, and solar technology.

  9. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

    1998-01-01

    For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

  10. A novel computer based expert decision making model for prostate cancer disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, Martin B; Forman, Ernest H; Bayazit, Yildirim; Einstein, Douglas B; Resnick, Martin I; Stovsky, Mark D

    2005-12-01

    We propose a strategic, computer based, prostate cancer decision making model based on the analytic hierarchy process. We developed a model that improves physician-patient joint decision making and enhances the treatment selection process by making this critical decision rational and evidence based. Two groups (patient and physician-expert) completed a clinical study comparing an initial disease management choice with the highest ranked option generated by the computer model. Participants made pairwise comparisons to derive priorities for the objectives and subobjectives related to the disease management decision. The weighted comparisons were then applied to treatment options to yield prioritized rank lists that reflect the likelihood that a given alternative will achieve the participant treatment goal. Aggregate data were evaluated by inconsistency ratio analysis and sensitivity analysis, which assessed the influence of individual objectives and subobjectives on the final rank list of treatment options. Inconsistency ratios less than 0.05 were reliably generated, indicating that judgments made within the model were mathematically rational. The aggregate prioritized list of treatment options was tabulated for the patient and physician groups with similar outcomes for the 2 groups. Analysis of the major defining objectives in the treatment selection decision demonstrated the same rank order for the patient and physician groups with cure, survival and quality of life being more important than controlling cancer, preventing major complications of treatment, preventing blood transfusion complications and limiting treatment cost. Analysis of subobjectives, including quality of life and sexual dysfunction, produced similar priority rankings for the patient and physician groups. Concordance between initial treatment choice and the highest weighted model option differed between the groups with the patient group having 59% concordance and the physician group having only 42

  11. Simulation and Modeling Efforts to Support Decision Making in Healthcare Supply Chain Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eman AbuKhousa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM by improving the decision making pertaining processes’ efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  12. Simulation and modeling efforts to support decision making in healthcare supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbuKhousa, Eman; Al-Jaroodi, Jameela; Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja; Mohamed, Nader

    2014-01-01

    Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM) by improving the decision making pertaining processes' efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM) has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  13. Assessment of decision making models in sensitive technology: the nuclear energy case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Eduardo Ramos Ferreira da

    2007-01-01

    In this paper a bibliographic review is proceeded on the decision making processes approaching the sensitive technologies (the military and civilian uses as well), and the nuclear technology herself. It is made a correlation among the development of the nuclear technology and the decision making processes, showing that from 70 decade on, such processes are connected to the national security doctrines influenced by the Brazilian War College. So, every time that the national security is altered, so is the master line of the decision making process altered. In the Brazil case, the alteration appeared from the World War II up to the new proposals coming out from the Ministry of Defense are shown related to the nuclear technology. The existent models are analysed with a conclusion that such models are unveiling at the present situation of the moment, concerning to the nuclear technology

  14. Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

  15. Evidence accumulation in decision making: unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael D; Cummins, Tarrant D R

    2004-04-01

    An evidence accumulation model of forced-choice decision making is proposed to unify the fast and frugal take the best (TTB) model and the alternative rational (RAT) model with which it is usually contrasted. The basic idea is to treat the TTB model as a sequential-sampling process that terminates as soon as any evidence in favor of a decision is found and the rational approach as a sequential-sampling process that terminates only when all available information has been assessed. The unified TTB and RAT models were tested in an experiment in which participants learned to make correct judgments for a set of real-world stimuli on the basis of feedback, and were then asked to make additional judgments without feedback for cases in which the TTB and the rational models made different predictions. The results show that, in both experiments, there was strong intraparticipant consistency in the use of either the TTB or the rational model but large interparticipant differences in which model was used. The unified model is shown to be able to capture the differences in decision making across participants in an interpretable way and is preferred by the minimum description length model selection criterion.

  16. PRAGMATIST MODEL OF DECISION-MAKING IN LAW: FROM THE INSTRUMENTAL MENTALISM TO THE COMMUNICATIVE INTERSUBJECTIVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário Cesar da Silva Andrade

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate the method of making rational decision derived from the philosophy of Kant as a foundation paradigma of public decisions and, more specifically, of legal decisions. Based on the communicative action theory of Jürgen Habermas, the question is  if  the  transcendental  model  of  decision-making  meets  the  democratic  demands. Methodologically, the qualitative research was based on doctrinal sources about the theme, promoting a legal and critical analysis. Habermas' communicative bias raises the hypothesis that Kant's transcendental method, which influenced so much the theory of justice and Law, entails the adoption of an objective posture by the decision maker, something incompatible with the need for broad participation and the intersubjectivity prescribed by democracy . It was concluded that the public decision-making process must overcome the transcendental, decisionistic  and  instrumental  models,  adopting  pragmatic  model,  which  is  more intersubjective and communicative, therefore more consistente with the participatory bias of democracy.

  17. A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Capelo, Carlos; Dias, João Ferreira

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and manag...

  18. A Model of Supervisor Decision-Making in the Accommodation of Workers with Low Back Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

    2016-09-01

    Purpose To explore supervisors' perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. Methods Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. Results The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative "trial and error" decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor's attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort, and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. Conclusion A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: (a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; (b) decision resources necessary

  19. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  20. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Fujita, Yushi [TECNOVA Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  1. A Framework for Making Sustainable Cleanup Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip

    2002-08-01

    The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.

  2. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhoff, Baruch

    2010-09-01

    The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  4. Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...

  5. Human Errors in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad, Shahriari; Aliandrina, Dessy; Feng, Yan

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to identify human errors in decision making process. The study was focused on a research question such as: what could be the human error as a potential of decision failure in evaluation of the alternatives in the process of decision making. Two case studies were selected from the literature and analyzed to find the human errors contribute to decision fail. Then the analysis of human errors was linked with mental models in evaluation of alternative step. The results o...

  6. Multi-objective decision-making model based on CBM for an aircraft fleet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Lin, Lin

    2018-04-01

    Modern production management patterns, in which multi-unit (e.g., a fleet of aircrafts) are managed in a holistic manner, have brought new challenges for multi-unit maintenance decision making. To schedule a good maintenance plan, not only does the individual machine maintenance have to be considered, but also the maintenance of the other individuals have to be taken into account. Since most condition-based maintenance researches for aircraft focused on solely reducing maintenance cost or maximizing the availability of single aircraft, as well as considering that seldom researches concentrated on both the two objectives: minimizing cost and maximizing the availability of a fleet (total number of available aircraft in fleet), a multi-objective decision-making model based on condition-based maintenance concentrated both on the above two objectives is established. Furthermore, in consideration of the decision maker may prefer providing the final optimal result in the form of discrete intervals instead of a set of points (non-dominated solutions) in real decision-making problem, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on support vector regression is proposed to solve the above multi-objective decision-making model. Finally, a case study regarding a fleet is conducted, with the results proving that the approach efficiently generates outcomes that meet the schedule requirements.

  7. Rough multiple objective decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Jiuping

    2011-01-01

    Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.

  8. The Use of Touch in Counseling: An Ethical Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmes, Stephanie A.; Piazza, Nick J.; Laux, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Although some counselors have advocated for the limited use of touch in counseling, others have argued that touch has no place within the counseling relationship. Despite the controversy, the use of touch has been shown to have a number of therapeutic benefits; however, there are few ethical decision-making models that are appropriate for…

  9. The Cultural Mind: Environmental Decision Making and Cultural Modeling within and across Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atran, Scott; Medin, Douglas L.; Ross, Norbert O.

    2005-01-01

    This article describes cross-cultural research on the relation between how people conceptualize nature and how they act in it. Mental models of nature differ dramatically among populations living in the same area and engaged in similar activities. This has novel implications for environmental decision making and management, including commons…

  10. Rational misbehavior? Evaluating an integrated dual-process model of criminal decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gelder, J.L.; de Vries, R.E.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Test the hypothesis that dispositional self-control and morality relate to criminal decision making via different mental processing modes, a 'hot' affective mode and a 'cool' cognitive one. Methods: Structural equation modeling in two studies under separate samples of undergraduate

  11. A Model for Making Decisions about Ethical Dilemmas in Student Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Robert L.; Liu, Jin; Burgess, Yin

    2017-01-01

    In this mixed-methods study we investigated the development of a generalized ethics decision-making model that can be applied in considering ethical dilemmas related to student assessment. For the study, we developed five scenarios that describe ethical dilemmas associated with student assessment. Survey participants (i.e., educators) completed an…

  12. Testing the Intercultural Model of Ethical Decision Making with Counselor Trainees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Melissa; Goodrich, Kristopher M.; Gilbride, Dennis D.

    2013-01-01

    A training intervention using the Intercultural Model of Ethical Decision Making was tested with a sample of 48 counselor trainees enrolled in 3 counseling courses across 2 universities. Postintervention data indicated students' scores increased significantly on 5 of 6 evaluation criteria as well as on the overall total score. Although…

  13. A Modeling Framework for Supply Chain Simulation: Opportunities for Improved Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der D.J.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and

  14. A modeling framework for supply chain simulation : opportunities for improved decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and

  15. An Integrated Agent Model Addressing Situation Awareness and Functional State in Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, M.; van Lambalgen, R.M.; Treur, J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated agent model is introduced addressing mutually interacting Situation Awareness and Functional State dynamics in decision making. This shows how a human's functional state, more specific a human's exhaustion and power, can influence a human's situation awareness, and in

  16. Modelling farmer decision-making: The case of the Dutch pork sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrosius, F.H.W.; Hofstede, G.J.; Bock, B.B.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework that models farmers’ strategic decision making, taking into account that farmers adapt to institutional changes, given the social structure in which they are embedded. Design/methodology/approach – First, a theoretical framework was

  17. Participative business modelling to support strategic decision making in operations : a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, H.A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes a case study in which a consultancy method based on participative business modelling was used to support strategic decision making in the field of operations. In this case study the Dutch client company faced serious logical and financial problems after an attempt to attain competitive

  18. Customer Decision Making in Web Services with an Integrated P6 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhaohao; Sun, Junqing; Meredith, Grant

    Customer decision making (CDM) is an indispensable factor for web services. This article examines CDM in web services with a novel P6 model, which consists of the 6 Ps: privacy, perception, propensity, preference, personalization and promised experience. This model integrates the existing 6 P elements of marketing mix as the system environment of CDM in web services. The new integrated P6 model deals with the inner world of the customer and incorporates what the customer think during the DM process. The proposed approach will facilitate the research and development of web services and decision support systems.

  19. Review of Models of Consumer Behaviour and Influence of Emotions in the Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mikel Alonso López

    2016-01-01

    In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been est...

  20. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  1. Crisis decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holsti, O.R.

    1989-01-01

    This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war

  2. Formal Process Modeling to Improve Human Decision-Making in Test and Evaluation Acoustic Range Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    MODELING TO IMPROVE HUMAN DECISION-MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL by William Carlson September 2017 Thesis Advisor...the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT...MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) William Carlson 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

  3. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  4. RESEARCH OF MULTICRITERIAL DECISION-MAKING MODEL FOR EDUCATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Serbin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Subject of Research. Decision-making model is offered for informational and educational systems. The study of multi-criteria model is carried out taking into account knowledge, reaction and doubt. Method. The model of material proficiency by the user is based on identification of the personal characteristics when operating with the system. As a result of personal characteristics tracking in the system, an image is formed for each user that can be used for identifying his state: knowledge level, proportion of error, handwriting information, etc. During registration the user is passing an input test. Multi-criteria test results are automatically stored in the user's personal database (agent matrix and accounted for psychological comfort, formation of the next system content, management of knowledge levels, decision-making when working with the system. The proposed method gives a more clear and "transparent situational picture" for objective decision-making. Main Results. Implementation of multi-criteria decision-making model contributes to the quality of distance education. Also, the method makes it possible to reduce the probability of guessing the correct answer, thus increases the objectivity of knowledge level evaluation in diagnostic systems for management of learning process based on remote technologies. Practical Relevance. Obtained theoretical results of the work are used in training systems on the basis of multi-criteria decision models. Thus, the proposed model leads to an increase in the average score of about 0.3-0.4 points and reduces the training time in 1.5 to 2.0 times.

  5. Integrated catchment modelling within a strategic planning and decision making process: Werra case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Jörg; Funke, Markus

    Integrated water resources management (IWRM) redefines conventional water management approaches through a closer cross-linkage between environment and society. The role of public participation and socio-economic considerations becomes more important within the planning and decision making process. In this paper we address aspects of the integration of catchment models into such a process taking the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as an example. Within a case study situated in the Werra river basin (Central Germany), a systems analytic decision process model was developed. This model uses the semantics of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity model. As an example application, the catchment model SWAT and the water quality model RWQM1 were applied to simulate the effect of phosphorus emissions from non-point and point sources on water quality. The decision process model was able to guide the participants of the case study through the interdisciplinary planning and negotiation of actions. Further improvements of the integration framework include tools for quantitative uncertainty analyses, which are crucial for real life application of models within an IWRM decision making toolbox. For the case study, the multi-criteria assessment of actions indicates that the polluter pays principle can be met at larger scales (sub-catchment or river basin) without significantly compromising cost efficiency for the local situation.

  6. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

  7. A decision-making framework to model environmental flow requirements in oasis areas using Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Zhao, Ying; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Feng, Xinlong; Mao, Donglei; Shareef, Muhammad

    2016-09-01

    The competition for water resources between agricultural and natural oasis ecosystems has become an increasingly serious problem in oasis areas worldwide. Recently, the intensive extension of oasis farmland has led to excessive exploitation of water discharge, and consequently has resulted in a lack of water supply in natural oasis. To coordinate the conflicts, this paper provides a decision-making framework for modeling environmental flows in oasis areas using Bayesian networks (BNs). Three components are included in the framework: (1) assessment of agricultural economic loss due to meeting environmental flow requirements; (2) decision-making analysis using BNs; and (3) environmental flow decision-making under different water management scenarios. The decision-making criterion is determined based on intersection point analysis between the probability of large-level total agro-economic loss and the ratio of total to maximum agro-economic output by satisfying environmental flows. An application in the Qira oasis area of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China indicates that BNs can model environmental flow decision-making associated with agricultural economic loss effectively, as a powerful tool to coordinate water-use conflicts. In the case study, the environmental flow requirement is determined as 50.24%, 49.71% and 48.73% of the natural river flow in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. Without further agricultural economic loss, 1.93%, 0.66% and 0.43% of more river discharge can be allocated to eco-environmental water demands under the combined strategy in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. This work provides a valuable reference for environmental flow decision-making in any oasis area worldwide.

  8. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  9. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  10. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajkumar Rajavel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

  11. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

  12. Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate models experiments for adaptation decision-making (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.

    2010-12-01

    Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision-making

  13. Identification of a Multicriteria Decision-Making Model Using the Characteristic Objects Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Piegat

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new, nonlinear, multicriteria, decision-making method: the characteristic objects (COMET. This approach, which can be characterized as a fuzzy reference model, determines a measurement standard for decision-making problems. This model is distinguished by a constant set of specially chosen characteristic objects that are independent of the alternatives. After identifying a multicriteria model, this method can be used to compare any number of decisional objects (alternatives and select the best one. In the COMET, in contrast to other methods, the rank-reversal phenomenon is not observed. Rank-reversal is a paradoxical feature in the decision-making methods, which is caused by determining the absolute evaluations of considered alternatives on the basis of the alternatives themselves. In the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method and similar methods, when a new alternative is added to the original alternative set, the evaluation base and the resulting evaluations of all objects change. A great advantage of the COMET is its ability to identify not only linear but also nonlinear multicriteria models of decision makers. This identification is based not on a ranking of component criteria of the multicriterion but on a ranking of a larger set of characteristic objects (characteristic alternatives that are independent of the small set of alternatives analyzed in a given problem. As a result, the COMET is free of the faults of other methods.

  14. Consumer Decision-Making Styles Extension to Trust-Based Product Comparison Site Usage Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslaw Macik

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes an implementation of extended consumer decision-making styles concept in explaining consumer choices made in product comparison site environment in the context of trust-based information technology acceptance model. Previous research proved that trust-based acceptance model is useful in explaining purchase intention and anticipated satisfaction in product comparison site environment, as an example of online decision shopping aids. Trust to such aids is important in explaining their usage by consumers. The connections between consumer decision-making styles, product and sellers opinions usage, cognitive and affective trust toward online product comparison site, as well as choice outcomes (purchase intention and brand choice are explored trough structural equation models using PLS-SEM approach, using a sample of 461 young consumers. Research confirmed the validity of research model in explaining product comparison usage, and some consumer decision-making styles influenced consumers’ choices and purchase intention. Product and sellers reviews usage were partially mediating mentioned relationships.

  15. Design and Implementation of a General Decision-Making Model in RoboCup Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changda Wang

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of the collaboration, coordination and negotiation among different agents in a multi-agent system (MAS has always been the most challenging yet popular in the research of distributed artificial intelligence. In this paper, we will suggest for RoboCup simulation, a typical MAS, a general decision-making model, rather than define a different algorithm for each tactic (e.g. ball handling, pass, shoot and interception, etc. in soccer games as most RoboCup simulation teams did. The general decision-making model is based on two critical factors in soccer games: the vertical distance to the goal line and the visual angle for the goalpost. We have used these two parameters to formalize the defensive and offensive decisions in RoboCup simulation and the results mentioned above had been applied in NOVAURO®, original name is UJDB, a RoboCup simulation team of Jiangsu University, whose decision-making model, compared with that of Tsinghua University, the world champion team in 2001, is a universal model and easier to be implemented.

  16. A cortical network model of cognitive and emotional influences in human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazir, Azadeh Hassannejad; Liljenström, Hans

    2015-10-01

    Decision making (DM)(2) is a complex process that appears to involve several brain structures. In particular, amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) seem to be essential in human decision making, where both emotional and cognitive aspects are taken into account. In this paper, we present a computational network model representing the neural information processing of DM, from perception to behavior. We model the population dynamics of the three neural structures (amygdala, OFC and LPFC), as well as their interaction. In our model, the neurodynamic activity of amygdala and OFC represents the neural correlates of secondary emotion, while the activity of certain neural populations in OFC alone represents the outcome expectancy of different options. The cognitive/rational aspect of DM is associated with LPFC. Our model is intended to give insights on the emotional and cognitive processes involved in DM under various internal and external contexts. Different options for actions are represented by the oscillatory activity of cell assemblies, which may change due to experience and learning. Knowledge and experience of the outcome of our decisions and actions can eventually result in changes in our neural structures, attitudes and behaviors. Simulation results may have implications for how we make decisions for our individual actions, as well as for societal choices, where we take examples from transport and its impact on CO2 emissions and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Dynamics of Entropy in Quantum-like Model of Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu

    2011-03-01

    We present a quantum-like model of decision making in games of the Prisoner's Dilemma type. By this model the brain processes information by using representation of mental states in complex Hilbert space. Driven by the master equation the mental state of a player, say Alice, approaches an equilibrium point in the space of density matrices. By using this equilibrium point Alice determines her mixed (i.e., probabilistic) strategy with respect to Bob. Thus our model is a model of thinking through decoherence of initially pure mental state. Decoherence is induced by interaction with memory and external environment. In this paper we study (numerically) dynamics of quantum entropy of Alice's state in the process of decision making. Our analysis demonstrates that this dynamics depends nontrivially on the initial state of Alice's mind on her own actions and her prediction state (for possible actions of Bob.)

  18. MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HENDRIKS, MMWB; DEBOER, JH; SMILDE, AK; DOORNBOS, DA

    1992-01-01

    Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities

  19. An expandable software model for collaborative decision making during the whole building life cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papamichael, K.; Pal, V.; Bourassa, N.; Loffeld, J.; Capeluto, G.

    2000-01-01

    Decisions throughout the life cycle of a building, from design through construction and commissioning to operation and demolition, require the involvement of multiple interested parties (e.g., architects, engineers, owners, occupants and facility managers). The performance of alternative designs and courses of action must be assessed with respect to multiple performance criteria, such as comfort, aesthetics, energy, cost and environmental impact. Several stand-alone computer tools are currently available that address specific performance issues during various stages of a building's life cycle. Some of these tools support collaboration by providing means for synchronous and asynchronous communications, performance simulations, and monitoring of a variety of performance parameters involved in decisions about a building during building operation. However, these tools are not linked in any way, so significant work is required to maintain and distribute information to all parties. In this paper we describe a software model that provides the data management and process control required for collaborative decision making throughout a building's life cycle. The requirements for the model are delineated addressing data and process needs for decision making at different stages of a building's life cycle. The software model meets these requirements and allows addition of any number of processes and support databases over time. What makes the model infinitely expandable is that it is a very generic conceptualization (or abstraction) of processes as relations among data. The software model supports multiple concurrent users, and facilitates discussion and debate leading to decision making. The software allows users to define rules and functions for automating tasks and alerting all participants to issues that need attention. It supports management of simulated as well as real data and continuously generates information useful for improving performance prediction and

  20. Decision making model design for antivirus software selection using Factor Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process

    OpenAIRE

    Nurhayati Ai; Gautama Aditya; Naseer Muchammad

    2018-01-01

    Virus spread increase significantly through the internet in 2017. One of the protection method is using antivirus software. The wide variety of antivirus software in the market tends to creating confusion among consumer. Selecting the right antivirus according to their needs has become difficult. This is the reason we conduct our research. We formulate a decision making model for antivirus software consumer. The model is constructed by using factor analysis and AHP method. First we spread que...

  1. Toward an operational model of decision making, emotional regulation, and mental health impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collura, Thomas Francis; Zalaquett, Ronald P; Bonnstetter, Carlos Joyce; Chatters, Seria J

    2014-01-01

    Current brain research increasingly reveals the underlying mechanisms and processes of human behavior, cognition, and emotion. In addition to being of interest to a wide range of scientists, educators, and professionals, as well as laypeople, brain-based models are of particular value in a clinical setting. Psychiatrists, psychologists, counselors, and other mental health professionals are in need of operational models that integrate recent findings in the physical, cognitive, and emotional domains, and offer a common language for interdisciplinary understanding and communication. Based on individual traits, predispositions, and responses to stimuli, we can begin to identify emotional and behavioral pathways and mental processing patterns. The purpose of this article is to present a brain-path activation model to understand individual differences in decision making and psychopathology. The first section discusses the role of frontal lobe electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry, summarizes state- and trait-based models of decision making, and provides a more complex analysis that supplements the traditional simple left-right brain model. Key components of the new model are the introduction of right hemisphere parallel and left hemisphere serial scanning in rendering decisions, and the proposition of pathways that incorporate both past experiences as well as future implications into the decision process. Main attributes of each decision-making mechanism are provided. The second section applies the model within the realm of clinical mental health as a tool to understand specific human behavior and pathology. Applications include general and chronic anxiety, depression, paranoia, risk taking, and the pathways employed when well-functioning operational integration is observed. Finally, specific applications such as meditation and mindfulness are offered to facilitate positive functioning.

  2. Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

    2013-01-01

    Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

  3. MODELLING OF DECISION MAKING OF UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE'S OPERATOR IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: lack of recommendation action algorithm of UAV operator in emergency situations; decomposition of the process of decision making (DM by UAV’s Operator in emergency situations; development of the structure of distributed decision support system (DDSS for remotely piloted aircraft; development of a database of local decision support system (DSS operators Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS; working-out of models DM by UAV’s Operator. Methods: Algoritm of actions of UAV operator by Wald criterion, Laplace criterion, Hurwitz criterion. Results: The program "UAV_AS" that gives to UAV operator recommendations on how to act in case of emergency. Discussion: The article deals with the problem of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV flights for decision of different tasks in emergency situation. Based on statistical data it was analyzing the types of emergencies for unmanned aircraft. Defined sequence of actions UAV operator and in case of emergencies.

  4. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  5. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  6. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Tsalatsanis

    Full Text Available Dual Processing Theories (DPT assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive and type 2 (deliberative. Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  7. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

  8. Modeling, control and optimization of water systems systems engineering methods for control and decision making tasks

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides essential background knowledge on the development of model-based real-world solutions in the field of control and decision making for water systems. It presents system engineering methods for modelling surface water and groundwater resources as well as water transportation systems (rivers, channels and pipelines). The models in turn provide information on both the water quantity (flow rates, water levels) of surface water and groundwater and on water quality. In addition, methods for modelling and predicting water demand are described. Sample applications of the models are presented, such as a water allocation decision support system for semi-arid regions, a multiple-criteria control model for run-of-river hydropower plants, and a supply network simulation for public services.

  9. Abstraction of an Affective-Cognitive Decision Making Model Based on Simulated Behaviour and Perception Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpanskykh, Alexei; Treur, Jan

    Employing rich internal agent models of actors in large-scale socio-technical systems often results in scalability issues. The problem addressed in this paper is how to improve computational properties of a complex internal agent model, while preserving its behavioral properties. The problem is addressed for the case of an existing affective-cognitive decision making model instantiated for an emergency scenario. For this internal decision model an abstracted behavioral agent model is obtained, which ensures a substantial increase of the computational efficiency at the cost of approximately 1% behavioural error. The abstraction technique used can be applied to a wide range of internal agent models with loops, for example, involving mutual affective-cognitive interactions.

  10. Oil industry decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, T.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil and gas business is undergoing a significant restructuring. In order to maintain control of our own destiny and succeed in an increasingly competitive business environment, the industry must set goals which are consistent with its continued success and focus on those goals in every aspect of its strategic management. By applying an approach to decision making which focuses on the achievement of the key goals required for success at every decision point and systematic follow-up, a firm can greatly increase its ability to succeed in the business environment of the future

  11. Responsive Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul

    , the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence...

  12. Shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godolphin, William

    2009-01-01

    Shared decision-making has been called the crux of patient-centred care and identified as a key part of change for improved quality and safety in healthcare. However, it rarely happens, is hard to do and is not taught - for many reasons. Talking with patients about options is not embedded in the attitudes or communication skills training of most healthcare professionals. Information tools such as patient decision aids, personal health records and the Internet will help to shift this state, as will policy that drives patient and public involvement in healthcare delivery and training.

  13. A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine Prezenski

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying

  14. A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prezenski, Sabine; Brechmann, André; Wolff, Susann; Russwinkel, Nele

    2017-01-01

    Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from

  15. A conceptual and computational model of moral decision making in human and artificial agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Wendell; Franklin, Stan; Allen, Colin

    2010-07-01

    Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in general, comprehensive models of human cognition. Such models aim to explain higher-order cognitive faculties, such as deliberation and planning. Given a computational representation, the validity of these models can be tested in computer simulations such as software agents or embodied robots. The push to implement computational models of this kind has created the field of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Moral decision making is arguably one of the most challenging tasks for computational approaches to higher-order cognition. The need for increasingly autonomous artificial agents to factor moral considerations into their choices and actions has given rise to another new field of inquiry variously known as Machine Morality, Machine Ethics, Roboethics, or Friendly AI. In this study, we discuss how LIDA, an AGI model of human cognition, can be adapted to model both affective and rational features of moral decision making. Using the LIDA model, we will demonstrate how moral decisions can be made in many domains using the same mechanisms that enable general decision making. Comprehensive models of human cognition typically aim for compatibility with recent research in the cognitive and neural sciences. Global workspace theory, proposed by the neuropsychologist Bernard Baars (1988), is a highly regarded model of human cognition that is currently being computationally instantiated in several software implementations. LIDA (Franklin, Baars, Ramamurthy, & Ventura, 2005) is one such computational implementation. LIDA is both a set of computational tools and an underlying model of human cognition, which provides mechanisms that are capable of explaining how an agent's selection of its next action arises from bottom-up collection of sensory data and top-down processes for making sense of its current situation. We will describe how the LIDA model helps integrate emotions into the human decision-making process, and we

  16. An integrative formal model of motivation and decision making: The MGPM*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Timothy; Yeo, Gillian; Loft, Shayne; Vancouver, Jeffrey B; Neal, Andrew

    2016-09-01

    We develop and test an integrative formal model of motivation and decision making. The model, referred to as the extended multiple-goal pursuit model (MGPM*), is an integration of the multiple-goal pursuit model (Vancouver, Weinhardt, & Schmidt, 2010) and decision field theory (Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993). Simulations of the model generated predictions regarding the effects of goal type (approach vs. avoidance), risk, and time sensitivity on prioritization. We tested these predictions in an experiment in which participants pursued different combinations of approach and avoidance goals under different levels of risk. The empirical results were consistent with the predictions of the MGPM*. Specifically, participants pursuing 1 approach and 1 avoidance goal shifted priority from the approach to the avoidance goal over time. Among participants pursuing 2 approach goals, those with low time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the larger discrepancy, whereas those with high time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Participants pursuing 2 avoidance goals generally prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Finally, all of these effects became weaker as the level of risk increased. We used quantitative model comparison to show that the MGPM* explained the data better than the original multiple-goal pursuit model, and that the major extensions from the original model were justified. The MGPM* represents a step forward in the development of a general theory of decision making during multiple-goal pursuit. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Quantum-like model of brain's functioning: decision making from decoherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei

    2011-07-21

    We present a quantum-like model of decision making in games of the Prisoner's Dilemma type. By this model the brain processes information by using representation of mental states in a complex Hilbert space. Driven by the master equation the mental state of a player, say Alice, approaches an equilibrium point in the space of density matrices (representing mental states). This equilibrium state determines Alice's mixed (i.e., probabilistic) strategy. We use a master equation in which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction with environment. Thus our model is a model of thinking through decoherence of the initially pure mental state. Decoherence is induced by the interaction with memory and the external mental environment. We study (numerically) the dynamics of quantum entropy of Alice's mental state in the process of decision making. We also consider classical entropy corresponding to Alice's choices. We introduce a measure of Alice's diffidence as the difference between classical and quantum entropies of Alice's mental state. We see that (at least in our model example) diffidence decreases (approaching zero) in the process of decision making. Finally, we discuss the problem of neuronal realization of quantum-like dynamics in the brain; especially roles played by lateral prefrontal cortex or/and orbitofrontal cortex. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Modelling in support of decision-making for South African extensive beef farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.H. Meyer

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study it is shown that it is possible to build a decision support system for the use of South African extensive beef farmers. Initially models for the key variables which affect extensive beef farmers are developed. These key variables include rainfall, beef, veal and weaner prices and the condition of the veld. This last key variable is monitored using the voluntary lick intake of the cattle and is modelled in terms of rainfall and stocking intensity. Particular attention is paid to the interrelationships between the key variables and to the distribution of modelling errors. The next stage of the study concerns the use of these models as a decision-support tool for extensive beef farmers. It is shown that Monte Carlo simulations and dynamic programming analyses can use these models to suggest how gross margins can be increased. At the same time these methods can be used to monitor the effect of management decisions on mean lick intake and, hence, the effect of these decisions on the condition of the veld. In particular the decisions of "what stocking intensity", "what cattle system", "when to sell" and "when to make a change" are addressed.

  19. Strong interactions between learned helplessness and risky decision-making in a rat gambling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobrega, José N; Hedayatmofidi, Parisa S; Lobo, Daniela S

    2016-11-18

    Risky decision-making is characteristic of depression and of addictive disorders, including pathological gambling. However it is not clear whether a propensity to risky choices predisposes to depressive symptoms or whether the converse is the case. Here we tested the hypothesis that rats showing risky decision-making in a rat gambling task (rGT) would be more prone to depressive-like behaviour in the learned helplessness (LH) model. Results showed that baseline rGT choice behaviour did not predict escape deficits in the LH protocol. In contrast, exposure to the LH protocol resulted in a significant increase in risky rGT choices on retest. Unexpectedly, control rats subjected only to escapable stress in the LH protocol showed a subsequent decrease in riskier rGT choices. Further analyses indicated that the LH protocol affected primarily rats with high baseline levels of risky choices and that among these it had opposite effects in rats exposed to LH-inducing stress compared to rats exposed only to the escape trials. Together these findings suggest that while baseline risky decision making may not predict LH behaviour it interacts strongly with LH conditions in modulating subsequent decision-making behaviour. The suggested possibility that stress controllability may be a key factor should be further investigated.

  20. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SM Turpin

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

  1. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    OpenAIRE

    Tungju Wu; Yenchun Jim Wu; Hsientang Tsai; Yibin Li

    2017-01-01

    Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT) of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires o...

  2. Differential impairments underlying decision making in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa: a cognitive modeling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Trista Wai Sze; Ahn, Woo-Young; Bates, John E; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Guillaume, Sebastien; Redgrave, Graham W; Danner, Unna N; Courtet, Philippe

    2014-03-01

    This study examined the underlying processes of decision-making impairments in individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). We deconstructed their performance on the widely used decision task, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) into cognitive, motivational, and response processes using cognitive modeling analysis. We hypothesized that IGT performance would be characterized by impaired memory functions and heightened punishment sensitivity in AN, and by elevated sensitivity to reward as opposed to punishment in BN. We analyzed trial-by-trial data of IGT obtained from 224 individuals: 94 individuals with AN, 63 with BN, and 67 healthy comparison individuals (HC). The prospect valence learning model was used to assess cognitive, motivational, and response processes underlying IGT performance. Individuals with AN showed marginally impaired IGT performance compared to HC. Their performance was characterized by impairments in memory functions. Individuals with BN showed significantly impaired IGT performance compared to HC. They showed greater relative sensitivity to gains as opposed to losses than HC. Memory functions in AN were positively correlated with body mass index. This study identified differential impairments underlying IGT performance in AN and BN. Findings suggest that impaired decision making in AN might involve impaired memory functions. Impaired decision making in BN might involve altered reward and punishment sensitivity. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Advances in Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Sustainability: Modeling and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kao-Yi Shen

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available With the surging complexity of real-world problems in important domains such as sustainability, there is a need to leverage advanced modern computational methods or intelligent techniques to support decisions or policy-making. In this Special Issue, 15 selected and formally peer-reviewed papers contribute their novelty and findings, by applying various advanced decision methods or computational techniques to resolve different sustainability problems. Despite the innovations of the proposed models, most of the selected papers involve domain expert’s opinions and knowledge with in-depth discussions. These case studies enrich the practical contributions of this Special Issue.

  4. Decision-making for supplying energy projects: A four-dimensional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith Stegen, Karen; Palovic, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Extant pipeline evaluation models offer insufficient supplier analysis tools. • We offer a four-dimensional decision-making tool to augment extant models. • Model employs four filters to help decision makers eliminate unsuitable suppliers. • Aids in prioritization of best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. • Case study of Nabucco pipeline shows Azerbaijan would have been best supply option. - Abstract: Importing states and regions employ myriad strategies to enhance energy security, from stockpiling to diversification to efficiency programs. As has occurred in recent years, importers can seek diversification by initiating pipeline and liquefied natural gas projects, meaning they may also have to select suppliers. However, most extant pipeline evaluation models erroneously assume suppliers are known and thus neglect supplier selection. We propose a decision-making tool to augment these older models: a systematic and replicable four-dimensional model to help policymakers and managers identify suitable suppliers and prioritize the best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. The first three dimensions—timeframe, supply availability and infrastructure constraints—filter out unsuitable suppliers. The fourth dimension then assesses the political, geopolitical and commercial stability of the remaining candidates. To demonstrate the model in practice, we assess the original Nabucco pipeline proposal, which was designed to transport gas from the Caspian and Middle East regions to Europe

  5. Quantitative Decision Making Model for Carbon Reduction in Road Construction Projects Using Green Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosik Jang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Numerous countries have established policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and have suggested goals pertaining to these reductions. To reach the target reduction amounts, studies on the reduction of carbon emissions have been conducted with regard to all stages and processes in construction projects. According to a study on carbon emissions, the carbon emissions generated during the construction stage of road projects account for approximately 76 to 86% of the total carbon emissions, far exceeding the other stages, such as maintenance or demolition. Therefore, this study aims to develop a quantitative decision making model that supports the application of green technologies (GTs to reduce carbon emissions during the construction stage of road construction projects. First, the authors selected environmental soundness, economic feasibility and constructability as the key assessment indices for evaluating 20 GTs. Second, a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (FS/QCA was used to establish an objective decision-making model for the assessment of both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the key indices. To support the developed model, an expert survey was performed to assess the applicability of each GT from a practical perspective, which was verified with a case study using two additional GTs. The proposed model is expected to support practitioners in the application of suitable GTs to road projects and reduce carbon emissions, resulting in better decision making during road construction projects.

  6. Multi-Criteria Decision Making For Determining A Simple Model of Supplier Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati

    2017-06-01

    Supplier selection is a decision with many criteria. Supplier selection model usually involves more than five main criteria and more than 10 sub-criteria. In fact many model includes more than 20 criteria. Too many criteria involved in supplier selection models sometimes make it difficult to apply in many companies. This research focuses on designing supplier selection that easy and simple to be applied in the company. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to weighting criteria. The analysis results there are four criteria that are easy and simple can be used to select suppliers: Price (weight 0.4) shipment (weight 0.3), quality (weight 0.2) and services (weight 0.1). A real case simulation shows that simple model provides the same decision with a more complex model.

  7. Modeling Search Behaviors during the Acquisition of Expertise in a Sequential Decision-Making Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Our daily interaction with the world is plagued of situations in which we develop expertise through self-motivated repetition of the same task. In many of these interactions, and especially when dealing with computer and machine interfaces, we must deal with sequences of decisions and actions. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion and a specific sequence of choices must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as we become experts in the use of such interfaces, is it possible to identify specific search and learning strategies? And if so, can we use this information to predict future actions? In addition to better understanding the cognitive processes underlying sequential decision making, this could allow building adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Here we tackle the question of modeling sequential decision-making behavior in a simple human-computer interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT task. We record behavioral data from voluntary participants while they attempt to solve the task. Using a Hidden Markov Model-based approach that capitalizes on the hierarchical structure of behavior, we then model their performance during the interaction. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into a small set of hierarchically related stereotyped strategies can potentially capture a host of individual decision making policies. This allows us to follow how participants learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Moreover, using a Mixture of Experts based on these stereotyped strategies, the model is able to predict the behavior of participants that master the task.

  8. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  9. Observing the observer (I): meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daunizeau, Jean; den Ouden, Hanneke E M; Pessiglione, Matthias; Kiebel, Stefan J; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

    2010-12-14

    In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predicts the ensuing behavioural (or neurophysiological) responses to those inputs. We start with the premise that subjects continuously update a probabilistic representation of the causes of their sensory inputs to optimise their behaviour. In addition, subjects have preferences or goals that guide decisions about actions given the above uncertain representation of these hidden causes or state of affairs. From a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective, uncertain representations are so-called "posterior" beliefs, which are influenced by subjective "prior" beliefs. Preferences and goals are encoded through a "loss" (or "utility") function, which measures the cost incurred by making any admissible decision for any given (hidden) state of affair. By assuming that subjects make optimal decisions on the basis of updated (posterior) beliefs and utility (loss) functions, one can evaluate the likelihood of observed behaviour. Critically, this enables one to "observe the observer", i.e. identify (context- or subject-dependent) prior beliefs and utility-functions using psychophysical or neurophysiological measures. In this paper, we describe the main theoretical components of this meta-Bayesian approach (i.e. a Bayesian treatment of Bayesian decision theoretic predictions). In a companion paper ('Observing the observer (II): deciding when to decide'), we describe a concrete implementation of it and demonstrate its utility by applying it to simulated and real reaction time data from an associative learning task.

  10. Observing the observer (I: meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Daunizeau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predicts the ensuing behavioural (or neurophysiological responses to those inputs. We start with the premise that subjects continuously update a probabilistic representation of the causes of their sensory inputs to optimise their behaviour. In addition, subjects have preferences or goals that guide decisions about actions given the above uncertain representation of these hidden causes or state of affairs. From a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective, uncertain representations are so-called "posterior" beliefs, which are influenced by subjective "prior" beliefs. Preferences and goals are encoded through a "loss" (or "utility" function, which measures the cost incurred by making any admissible decision for any given (hidden state of affair. By assuming that subjects make optimal decisions on the basis of updated (posterior beliefs and utility (loss functions, one can evaluate the likelihood of observed behaviour. Critically, this enables one to "observe the observer", i.e. identify (context- or subject-dependent prior beliefs and utility-functions using psychophysical or neurophysiological measures. In this paper, we describe the main theoretical components of this meta-Bayesian approach (i.e. a Bayesian treatment of Bayesian decision theoretic predictions. In a companion paper ('Observing the observer (II: deciding when to decide', we describe a concrete implementation of it and demonstrate its utility by applying it to simulated and real reaction time data from an associative learning task.

  11. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  12. Decision making in neonatologia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

    2010-06-01

    The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

  13. Predicting IT Governance Performance : A Method for Model-Based Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Simonsson, Mårten

    2008-01-01

    Contemporary enterprises are largely dependent on Information Technology (IT), which makes decision making on IT matters important. There are numerous issues that confuse IT decision making, including contradictive business needs, financial constraints, lack of communication between business and IT stakeholders and difficulty in understanding the often heterogeneous and integrated IT systems. The discipline of IT governance aims at providing the decision making structures, processes, and rela...

  14. Participation in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EG Valoyi

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.

  15. A Dynamic Bayesian Model for Characterizing Cross-Neuronal Interactions During Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bo; Moorman, David E; Behseta, Sam; Ombao, Hernando; Shahbaba, Babak

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to develop a novel statistical model for studying cross-neuronal spike train interactions during decision making. For an individual to successfully complete the task of decision-making, a number of temporally-organized events must occur: stimuli must be detected, potential outcomes must be evaluated, behaviors must be executed or inhibited, and outcomes (such as reward or no-reward) must be experienced. Due to the complexity of this process, it is likely the case that decision-making is encoded by the temporally-precise interactions between large populations of neurons. Most existing statistical models, however, are inadequate for analyzing such a phenomenon because they provide only an aggregated measure of interactions over time. To address this considerable limitation, we propose a dynamic Bayesian model which captures the time-varying nature of neuronal activity (such as the time-varying strength of the interactions between neurons). The proposed method yielded results that reveal new insight into the dynamic nature of population coding in the prefrontal cortex during decision making. In our analysis, we note that while some neurons in the prefrontal cortex do not synchronize their firing activity until the presence of a reward, a different set of neurons synchronize their activity shortly after stimulus onset. These differentially synchronizing sub-populations of neurons suggests a continuum of population representation of the reward-seeking task. Secondly, our analyses also suggest that the degree of synchronization differs between the rewarded and non-rewarded conditions. Moreover, the proposed model is scalable to handle data on many simultaneously-recorded neurons and is applicable to analyzing other types of multivariate time series data with latent structure. Supplementary materials (including computer codes) for our paper are available online.

  16. Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire A Hales

    Full Text Available Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142, and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

  17. Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hales, Claire A; Robinson, Emma S J; Houghton, Conor J

    2016-01-01

    Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142), and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

  18. Multi-criteria model to support decision-making for the remediation of urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Luca, Christiano; Lopes, Ricardo T., E-mail: christiano_luca@hotmail.com, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Rochedo, Elaine R.R., E-mail: elainerochedo@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Diogo N.G.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D., E-mail: diogons@gmail.com, E-mail: jeanrdg@biof.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Instituto de Biofisica Carlos Chagas Filho; Rochedo, Pedro R.R., E-mail: rochedopedro@gmail.com [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de de Planejamento Energetico; Wasserman, Maria Angelica V., E-mail: mwasserman@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Under the environmental modeling Project of radioecology research area of IRD (CNEN), several tools have been developed to support post-emergency activities. Currently, a multi-criteria model is in development with the aim of supporting decision-making processes under the radiological protection point of view. At this stage, we are focusing on the decontamination of urban areas. The model includes five calculation modules: (1) averted doses to the public due to remediation procedures; (2) occupational exposure of remediation workers; (3) properties of the wastes generated by a remediation procedure; (4) classification of each procedure for a specific urban scenario based on previously calculated quantities; and, (5) multi-criteria rank calculation. The classification of procedures is based on two types of criteria previously defined, both also included as input data of the model. The first type, called Subjective Criteria, is based on experts' opinions collected through questionnaires. The second type, called Technical Criteria, is calculated according to the outputs of the three first modules of the program. The output of the model is a rank order list indicating the priority of procedures to use for each different type of urban environment. The use of results based on criteria and methods developed previously to the occurrence of a contamination event intends not only to provide an input to decision-making processes but also to improve public confidence on authorities responsible for the remediation decisions. (author)

  19. Multi-criteria model to support decision-making for the remediation of urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Luca, Christiano; Lopes, Ricardo T.; Silva, Diogo N.G.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D.

    2015-01-01

    Under the environmental modeling Project of radioecology research area of IRD (CNEN), several tools have been developed to support post-emergency activities. Currently, a multi-criteria model is in development with the aim of supporting decision-making processes under the radiological protection point of view. At this stage, we are focusing on the decontamination of urban areas. The model includes five calculation modules: (1) averted doses to the public due to remediation procedures; (2) occupational exposure of remediation workers; (3) properties of the wastes generated by a remediation procedure; (4) classification of each procedure for a specific urban scenario based on previously calculated quantities; and, (5) multi-criteria rank calculation. The classification of procedures is based on two types of criteria previously defined, both also included as input data of the model. The first type, called Subjective Criteria, is based on experts' opinions collected through questionnaires. The second type, called Technical Criteria, is calculated according to the outputs of the three first modules of the program. The output of the model is a rank order list indicating the priority of procedures to use for each different type of urban environment. The use of results based on criteria and methods developed previously to the occurrence of a contamination event intends not only to provide an input to decision-making processes but also to improve public confidence on authorities responsible for the remediation decisions. (author)

  20. A consensus model for group decision making under interval type-2 fuzzy environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-xiong ZHANG; Bing-feng GE; Yue-jin TAN

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new consensus model for group decision making (GDM) problems, using an interval type-2 fuzzy environment. In our model, experts are asked to express their preferences using linguistic terms characterized by interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2 FSs), because these can provide decision makers with greater freedom to express the vagueness in real-life situa-tions. Consensus and proximity measures based on the arithmetic operations of IT2 FSs are used simultaneously to guide the decision-making process. The majority of previous studies have taken into account only the importance of the experts in the aggregation process, which may give unreasonable results. Thus, we propose a new feedback mechanism that generates different advice strategies for experts according to their levels of importance. In general, experts with a lower level of importance require a larger number of suggestions to change their initial preferences. Finally, we investigate a numerical example and execute com-parable models and ours, to demonstrate the performance of our proposed model. The results indicate that the proposed model provides greater insight into the GDM process.

  1. Decision making for business model development : A process study of effectuation and causation in new technology-based ventures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reymen, Isabelle; Berends, Hans; Oudehand, Rob; Stultiëns, Rutger

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the decision-making logics used by new ventures to develop their business models. In particular, they focussed on the logics of effectuation and causation and how their dynamics shape the development of business models over time. They found that the effectual decision-making

  2. Data Decision-Making and Program-Wide Implementation of the Pyramid Model. Roadmap to Effective Intervention Practices #7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Lise; Veguilla, Myrna; Perez Binder, Denise

    2014-01-01

    The Technical Assistance Center on Social Emotional Intervention for Young Children (TACSEI) Roadmap on "Data Decision-Making and Program-Wide Implementation of the Pyramid Model" provides programs with guidance on how to collect and use data to ensure the implementation of the Pyramid Model with fidelity and decision-making that…

  3. The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Judith; Krol, Martinus S.; Schielen, Ralph Mathias Johannes; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2010-01-01

    To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1)

  4. Optimizing medical device buying. Value analysis models can help you improve decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldstein, Josh; Brooks, Elizabeth

    2010-05-01

    Value Analysis Models (VAMs) are a burgeoning analytical tool that can help materials managers, operating room managers, CFOs and others to make comparative value assessments before reaching a critical purchasing decision. Although relatively new to the hospital field, more and more manufacturers are supporting these initiatives to bring critical information to their customers and the health care industry. VAMs aren't designed to conclude that one product is better than another but to be a tool that can help make the product acquisition process much easier.

  5. Modelling Investment Attractiveness of a Public Joint Stock Company as the Basis of Managerial Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brukhovetskaya Natalia E.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses factors of influence upon investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company, which are factors by the sphere of origin. The article identifies the degree and direction of influence of the factors by the sphere of origin upon investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company; factors are divided into two groups, which could be regulated directly by society and which cannot be regulated. It justifies the necessity of modelling investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company under influence of the factors with the aim of managerial decision making of two groups of stakeholders: owners and managers, shareholders and investors. It conducts modelling of investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company using the decision tree method. It develops a decision matrix, on the basis of which the owners, managers, shareholders and investors can make decisions regarding directions of increase of investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company and expediency of initial or further investing into society development.

  6. Models of governance in multihospital systems. Implications for hospital and system-level decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlock, L L; Alexander, J A

    1986-12-01

    This study utilizes data from a national survey of 159 multihospital systems in order to describe the types of governance structures currently being utilized, and to compare the policy making process for various types of decisions in systems with different approaches to governance. Survey results indicate that multihospital systems most often use one of three governance models. Forty-one percent of the systems (including 33% of system hospitals) use a parent holding company model in which there is a system-wide corporate governing board and separate governing boards for each member hospital. Twenty-two percent of systems in the sample (but 47% of all system hospitals) utilize what we have termed a modified parent holding company model in which there is one system-wide governing board, but advisory boards are substituted for governing boards at the local hospital level. Twenty-three percent of the sampled systems (including 11% of system hospitals) use a corporate model in which there is one system-wide governing board but no other governing or advisory boards at either the divisional, regional or local hospital levels. A comparison of systems using these three governance approaches found significant variation in terms of system size, ownership and the geographic proximity of member hospitals. In order to examine the relationship between alternative approaches to governance and patterns of decision-making, the three model types were compared with respect to the percentages of systems reporting that local boards, corporate management and/or system-wide corporate boards have responsibility for decision-making in a number of specific issue areas. Study results indicate that, regardless of model type, corporate boards are most likely to have responsibility for decisions regarding the transfer, pledging and sale of assets; the formation of new companies; purchase of assets greater than $100,000; changes in hospital bylaws; and the appointment of local board members. In

  7. Decision Making in Rangelands: An Integrated Modeling Approach to Resilience and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvin, K. A.; Ojima, D. S.; Boone, R. B.

    2007-12-01

    Rangelands comprise approximately 25% of the earth's surface and these landscapes support more than 20 million people and most of the world's charismatic megafauna. Most of the people who live in these regions of the world herd domestic livestock and some do limited cultivation so they are dependent directly on the environment for their livelihoods. But change is rapidly changing the environments upon which these people depend through such factors as population pressures, land use and land tenure changes, climate variability, and policy changes which fragment their resources and thus their ability to earn a living. How can we understand change in this linked human-environment system? The study of complex biophysical and human systems can be greatly assisted by appropriate simulation models that integrate what is known about ecological and human decision-making processes. We have developed an integrated modeling system for Kajiado, Kenya where land use management decisions have implications for economics and the ecosystem. In this paper we look at how land use decisions, that is, livestock movement patterns have implications for societal economics and ecosystem services. Research that focuses on local behavior is important because it is at that level where fundamental decisions are made regarding events like extreme climate and changes such as land tenure policy and it is here where resilience is manifested. The notion that broad recommendation domains can be identified for a broad set of people and large regions coping with change is becoming increasingly hard to trust given the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the systems we are looking at, and the complexity of the world we now live in. Why is this important? The only way the research community is going to make great progress in attaining objectives that do confer resilience (on social and ecological systems) is through much better targeting ability, a large part of which seem to be intimately entwined with

  8. A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

    Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

  9. Evaluation of End-Products in Architecture Design Process: A Fuzzy Decision-Making Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serkan PALABIYIK

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study on the development of a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for the evaluation of end products of the architectural design process. Potentials of the developed model were investigated within the scope of architectural design education, specifically an international design studio titled “Design for Disassembly and Reuse: Design & Building Multipurpose Transformable Pavilions.” The studio work followed a design process that integrated systematic and heuristic thinking. The design objectives and assessment criteria were clearly set out at the beginning of the process by the studio coordinator with the aim of narrowing the design space and increasing awareness of the consequences of design decisions. At the end of the design process, designs produced in the studio were evaluated using the developed model to support decision making. The model facilitated the identification of positive and negative aspects of the designs and selection of the design alternative that best met the studio objectives set at the beginning.

  10. Modeling and Analyzing Operational Decision-Making Synchronization of C2 Organization in Complex Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Zhigang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve capability of operational decision-making synchronization (ODMS in command and control (C2 organization, the paper puts forward that ODMS is the negotiation process of situation cognition with three phases about “situation cognition, situation interaction and decision-making synchronization” in complex environment, and then the model and strategies of ODMS are given in quantity. Firstly, measure indexes of three steps above are given in the paper based on the time consumed in negotiation, and three patterns are proposed for negotiating timely in high quality during situation interaction. Secondly, the ODMS model with two stages in continuous changing situation is put forward in the paper, and ODMS strategies are analyzed within environment influence and time restriction. Thirdly, simulation cases are given to validate the process of ODMS under different continuous changing situations the results of this model are better than the other previous models to fulfill the actual restrictions, and the process of ODMS can be adjusted more reasonable for improving the capability of ODMS. Then we discuss the case and summarize the influence factors of ODMS in the C2 organization as organization structure, shared information resources, negotiation patterns, and allocation of decision rights.

  11. Development of a fuzzy optimization model, supporting global warming decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leimbach, M.

    1996-01-01

    An increasing number of models have been developed to support global warming response policies. The model constructors are facing a lot of uncertainties which limit the evidence of these models. The support of climate policy decision-making is only possible in a semi-quantitative way, as presented by a Fuzzy model. The model design is based on an optimization approach, integrated in a bounded risk decision-making framework. Given some regional emission-related and impact-related restrictions, optimal emission paths can be calculated. The focus is not only on carbon dioxide but on other greenhouse gases too. In the paper, the components of the model will be described. Cost coefficients, emission boundaries and impact boundaries are represented as Fuzzy parameters. The Fuzzy model will be transformed into a computational one by using an approach of Rommelfanger. In the second part, some problems of applying the model to computations will be discussed. This includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation, as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses. The advantage of the Fuzzy approach is that the requirements regarding data precision are not so strong. Hence, the effort for data acquisition can be reduced and computations can be started earlier. 9 figs., 3 tabs., 17 refs., 1 appendix

  12. Neuroanatomical basis for recognition primed decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Effective decision making under time constraints is often overlooked in medical decision making. The recognition primed decision making (RPDM) model was developed by Gary Klein based on previous recognized situations to develop a satisfactory solution to the current problem. Bayes Theorem is the most popular decision making model in medicine but is limited by the need for adequate time to consider all probabilities. Unlike other decision making models, there is a potential neurobiological basis for RPDM. This model has significant implication for health informatics and medical education.

  13. Dual Processes in Decision Making and Developmental Neuroscience: A Fuzzy-Trace Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Brainerd, Charles J

    2011-09-01

    From Piaget to the present, traditional and dual-process theories have predicted improvement in reasoning from childhood to adulthood, and improvement has been observed. However, developmental reversals-that reasoning biases emerge with development -have also been observed in a growing list of paradigms. We explain how fuzzy-trace theory predicts both improvement and developmental reversals in reasoning and decision making. Drawing on research on logical and quantitative reasoning, as well as on risky decision making in the laboratory and in life, we illustrate how the same small set of theoretical principles apply to typical neurodevelopment, encompassing childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and to neurological conditions such as autism and Alzheimer's disease. For example, framing effects-that risk preferences shift when the same decisions are phrases in terms of gains versus losses-emerge in early adolescence as gist-based intuition develops. In autistic individuals, who rely less on gist-based intuition and more on verbatim-based analysis, framing biases are attenuated (i.e., they outperform typically developing control subjects). In adults, simple manipulations based on fuzzy-trace theory can make framing effects appear and disappear depending on whether gist-based intuition or verbatim-based analysis is induced. These theoretical principles are summarized and integrated in a new mathematical model that specifies how dual modes of reasoning combine to produce predictable variability in performance. In particular, we show how the most popular and extensively studied model of decision making-prospect theory-can be derived from fuzzy-trace theory by combining analytical (verbatim-based) and intuitive (gist-based) processes.

  14. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  15. Consensual decision-making model based on game theory for LNG processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Luis; Dorao, Carlos A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A Decision Making (DM) approach for LNG projects based on game theory is presented. ► DM framework was tested with two different cases, using analytical models and a simple LNG process. ► The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. ► Integrated models from the design and optimization of the process could result in more realistic outcome. ► The major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models. - Abstract: Decision-Making (DM) in LNG projects is a quite complex process due to the number of actors, approval phases, large investments and capital return in the long time. Furthermore, due to the very high investment of a LNG project, a detailed and efficient DM process is required in order to minimize risks. In this work a Decision-Making (DM) approach for LNG projects is presented. The approach is based on a consensus algorithm to address the consensus output over a common value using cost functions within a framework based on game theory. The DM framework was tested with two different cases. The first case was used for evaluating the performance of the framework with analytical models, while the second case corresponds to a simple LNG process. The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. The results of the DM framework in the LNG project indicate that considering an integrated DM model and including the markets role from the design and optimization of the process more realistic outcome could be obtained. However, the major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models.

  16. Quantum field inspired model of decision making: Asymptotic stabilization of belief state via interaction with surrounding mental environment

    OpenAIRE

    Bagarello, Fabio; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei

    2017-01-01

    This paper is devoted to justification of quantum-like models of the process of decision making based on the theory of open quantum systems, i.e. decision making is considered as decoherence. This process is modeled as interaction of a decision maker, Alice, with a mental (information) environment ${\\cal R}$ surrounding her. Such an interaction generates "dissipation of uncertainty" from Alice's belief-state $\\rho(t)$ into ${\\cal R}$ and asymptotic stabilization of $\\rho(t)$ to a steady belie...

  17. Characteristic times in the English Channel from numerical modelling: supporting decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perianez, R [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada 1, Universidad de Sevilla, EUITA, Carretera Utrera km 1, 41013 Sevilla (Spain); Miro, C [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de Extremadura, Avenida de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)], E-mail: rperianez@us.es, E-mail: cmiro@unex.es

    2009-06-15

    A numerical model that simulates the dispersion of radionuclides in the English Channel has been applied to study the dispersion of conservative and non-conservative radionuclides released from the La Hague nuclear fuel reprocessing plant. The model is based upon previous work and now is able to simulate dispersion over long timescales (decades), explicitly including transport by instantaneous tidal currents and variable wind conditions. Wind conditions are obtained from meteorological statistics using a stochastic method. Outputs from the model are treated using time-series analysis techniques. These techniques allow the determination of characteristic times of the system, transport velocities and dispersion factors. This information may be very useful to support the decision-making process after an emergency situation. Thus, we are proposing that time-series analysis can be integrated with numerical modelling for helping decision-making in response to an accident. The model is first validated through its application to actual releases of {sup 99}Tc and {sup 125}Sb, comparing measured and computed concentrations, and characteristic times for three radionuclides are given next: a perfectly conservative one, a very reactive one ({sup 239,240}Pu) and {sup 137}Cs, which has an intermediate behaviour. Characteristic transport velocities and dispersion factors have been calculated as well. Model results are supported by experimental evidence.

  18. Ultrasonographic diagnosis of biliary atresia based on a decision-making tree model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, So Mi; Cheon, Jung Eun; Choi, Young Hun; Kim, Woo Sun; Cho, Hyun Hye; Kim, In One; You, Sun Kyoung

    2015-01-01

    To assess the diagnostic value of various ultrasound (US) findings and to make a decision-tree model for US diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA). From March 2008 to January 2014, the following US findings were retrospectively evaluated in 100 infants with cholestatic jaundice (BA, n = 46; non-BA, n = 54): length and morphology of the gallbladder, triangular cord thickness, hepatic artery and portal vein diameters, and visualization of the common bile duct. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the features that would be useful in predicting BA. Conditional inference tree analysis was used to generate a decision-making tree for classifying patients into the BA or non-BA groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness were significant predictors of BA (p = 0.003 and 0.001; adjusted odds ratio: 345.6 and 65.6, respectively). In the decision-making tree using conditional inference tree analysis, gallbladder morphology and triangular cord thickness (optimal cutoff value of triangular cord thickness, 3.4 mm) were also selected as significant discriminators for differential diagnosis of BA, and gallbladder morphology was the first discriminator. The diagnostic performance of the decision-making tree was excellent, with sensitivity of 100% (46/46), specificity of 94.4% (51/54), and overall accuracy of 97% (97/100). Abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness (> 3.4 mm) were the most useful predictors of BA on US. We suggest that the gallbladder morphology should be evaluated first and that triangular cord thickness should be evaluated subsequently in cases with normal gallbladder morphology

  19. Ultrasonographic Diagnosis of Biliary Atresia Based on a Decision-Making Tree Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, So Mi; Cheon, Jung-Eun; Choi, Young Hun; Kim, Woo Sun; Cho, Hyun-Hae; Cho, Hyun-Hye; Kim, In-One; You, Sun Kyoung

    2015-01-01

    To assess the diagnostic value of various ultrasound (US) findings and to make a decision-tree model for US diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA). From March 2008 to January 2014, the following US findings were retrospectively evaluated in 100 infants with cholestatic jaundice (BA, n = 46; non-BA, n = 54): length and morphology of the gallbladder, triangular cord thickness, hepatic artery and portal vein diameters, and visualization of the common bile duct. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the features that would be useful in predicting BA. Conditional inference tree analysis was used to generate a decision-making tree for classifying patients into the BA or non-BA groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness were significant predictors of BA (p = 0.003 and 0.001; adjusted odds ratio: 345.6 and 65.6, respectively). In the decision-making tree using conditional inference tree analysis, gallbladder morphology and triangular cord thickness (optimal cutoff value of triangular cord thickness, 3.4 mm) were also selected as significant discriminators for differential diagnosis of BA, and gallbladder morphology was the first discriminator. The diagnostic performance of the decision-making tree was excellent, with sensitivity of 100% (46/46), specificity of 94.4% (51/54), and overall accuracy of 97% (97/100). Abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness (> 3.4 mm) were the most useful predictors of BA on US. We suggest that the gallbladder morphology should be evaluated first and that triangular cord thickness should be evaluated subsequently in cases with normal gallbladder morphology.

  20. Ultrasonographic diagnosis of biliary atresia based on a decision-making tree model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, So Mi; Cheon, Jung Eun; Choi, Young Hun; Kim, Woo Sun; Cho, Hyun Hye; Kim, In One; You, Sun Kyoung [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    To assess the diagnostic value of various ultrasound (US) findings and to make a decision-tree model for US diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA). From March 2008 to January 2014, the following US findings were retrospectively evaluated in 100 infants with cholestatic jaundice (BA, n = 46; non-BA, n = 54): length and morphology of the gallbladder, triangular cord thickness, hepatic artery and portal vein diameters, and visualization of the common bile duct. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the features that would be useful in predicting BA. Conditional inference tree analysis was used to generate a decision-making tree for classifying patients into the BA or non-BA groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness were significant predictors of BA (p = 0.003 and 0.001; adjusted odds ratio: 345.6 and 65.6, respectively). In the decision-making tree using conditional inference tree analysis, gallbladder morphology and triangular cord thickness (optimal cutoff value of triangular cord thickness, 3.4 mm) were also selected as significant discriminators for differential diagnosis of BA, and gallbladder morphology was the first discriminator. The diagnostic performance of the decision-making tree was excellent, with sensitivity of 100% (46/46), specificity of 94.4% (51/54), and overall accuracy of 97% (97/100). Abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness (> 3.4 mm) were the most useful predictors of BA on US. We suggest that the gallbladder morphology should be evaluated first and that triangular cord thickness should be evaluated subsequently in cases with normal gallbladder morphology.

  1. Decision Making in Biological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tian, Chengzhe

    This thesis consists of five projects in three topics with a shared theme of understanding cellular decision-making processes with mathematical modeling. In the first topic, we address the possible interaction between bacterial Toxin-Antitoxin (TA) systems and stringent response alarmone guanosin...

  2. Dual Processes in Decision Making and Developmental Neuroscience: A Fuzzy-Trace Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Brainerd, Charles J.

    2011-01-01

    From Piaget to the present, traditional and dual-process theories have predicted improvement in reasoning from childhood to adulthood, and improvement has been observed. However, developmental reversals—that reasoning biases emerge with development —have also been observed in a growing list of paradigms. We explain how fuzzy-trace theory predicts both improvement and developmental reversals in reasoning and decision making. Drawing on research on logical and quantitative reasoning, as well as on risky decision making in the laboratory and in life, we illustrate how the same small set of theoretical principles apply to typical neurodevelopment, encompassing childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and to neurological conditions such as autism and Alzheimer's disease. For example, framing effects—that risk preferences shift when the same decisions are phrases in terms of gains versus losses—emerge in early adolescence as gist-based intuition develops. In autistic individuals, who rely less on gist-based intuition and more on verbatim-based analysis, framing biases are attenuated (i.e., they outperform typically developing control subjects). In adults, simple manipulations based on fuzzy-trace theory can make framing effects appear and disappear depending on whether gist-based intuition or verbatim-based analysis is induced. These theoretical principles are summarized and integrated in a new mathematical model that specifies how dual modes of reasoning combine to produce predictable variability in performance. In particular, we show how the most popular and extensively studied model of decision making—prospect theory—can be derived from fuzzy-trace theory by combining analytical (verbatim-based) and intuitive (gist-based) processes. PMID:22096268

  3. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study.

  4. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study

  5. Fuzzy decision-making: a new method in model selection via various validity criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakouri Ganjavi, H.; Nikravesh, K.

    2001-01-01

    Modeling is considered as the first step in scientific investigations. Several alternative models may be candida ted to express a phenomenon. Scientists use various criteria to select one model between the competing models. Based on the solution of a Fuzzy Decision-Making problem, this paper proposes a new method in model selection. The method enables the scientist to apply all desired validity criteria, systematically by defining a proper Possibility Distribution Function due to each criterion. Finally, minimization of a utility function composed of the Possibility Distribution Functions will determine the best selection. The method is illustrated through a modeling example for the A verage Daily Time Duration of Electrical Energy Consumption in Iran

  6. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tungju Wu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires on TMTs completed by representatives from enterprises in China and found risk perceptions and mental models that serve as a mediating factor and are affected by the TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. We also found that psychological ownership exerts moderating effects between TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. This paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications for enterprise owners.

  7. Working Memory and Decision-Making in a Frontoparietal Circuit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, John D; Jaramillo, Jorge; Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2017-12-13

    Working memory (WM) and decision-making (DM) are fundamental cognitive functions involving a distributed interacting network of brain areas, with the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) and prefrontal cortex (PFC) at the core. However, the shared and distinct roles of these areas and the nature of their coordination in cognitive function remain poorly understood. Biophysically based computational models of cortical circuits have provided insights into the mechanisms supporting these functions, yet they have primarily focused on the local microcircuit level, raising questions about the principles for distributed cognitive computation in multiregional networks. To examine these issues, we developed a distributed circuit model of two reciprocally interacting modules representing PPC and PFC circuits. The circuit architecture includes hierarchical differences in local recurrent structure and implements reciprocal long-range projections. This parsimonious model captures a range of behavioral and neuronal features of frontoparietal circuits across multiple WM and DM paradigms. In the context of WM, both areas exhibit persistent activity, but, in response to intervening distractors, PPC transiently encodes distractors while PFC filters distractors and supports WM robustness. With regard to DM, the PPC module generates graded representations of accumulated evidence supporting target selection, while the PFC module generates more categorical responses related to action or choice. These findings suggest computational principles for distributed, hierarchical processing in cortex during cognitive function and provide a framework for extension to multiregional models. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Working memory and decision-making are fundamental "building blocks" of cognition, and deficits in these functions are associated with neuropsychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia. These cognitive functions engage distributed networks with prefrontal cortex (PFC) and posterior parietal

  8. Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Donald J. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Affective decision-making is a strategic model of choice under risk and uncertainty where we posit two cognitive processes -- the "rational" and the "emotional" process. Observed choice is the result of equilibrium in this intrapersonal game. As an example, we present applications of affective decision-making in insurance markets, where the risk perceptions of consumers are endogenous. We derive the axiomatic foundation of affective decision making, and show that affective decision making is ...

  9. An Integrated Model of Decision-Making in Health Contexts: The Role of Science Education in Health Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Julia C.

    2018-01-01

    Health education is to foster health literacy, informed decision-making and to promote health behaviour. To date, there are several models that seek to explain health behaviour (e.g. the Theory of Planned Behaviour or the Health Belief Model). These models include motivational factors (expectancies and values) that play a role in decision-making…

  10. A Contingency Model for Ethical Decision-Making by Educational Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, James; Walker, Keith

    2009-01-01

    While numerous philosophical essays offer speculative explanations of how persons should make ethical decisions, empirical investigations of the phenomenon of ethical decision-making are limited to just a few studies in the discipline of business management. This investigation focused on the ethical dilemmas confronted by educators, with emphasis…

  11. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Ethical Decision Making of Street-Level Bureaucracy : Existing Models Reconsidered

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loyens, Kim|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370525086; Maesschalck, Jeroen

    Much research has been done on the way in which individuals in organizations deal with their discretion. This article focuses on the literature on street-level bureaucracy and the literature on ethical decision making. Despite their shared attempt to explain individual behavior and decision making,

  12. The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

    Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

  13. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISIONMAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    Popovici Ioana; Tulai Constantin

    2010-01-01

    The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strat...

  14. Using the domain identification model to study major and career decision-making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tendhar, Chosang; Singh, Kusum; Jones, Brett D.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which (1) a domain identification model could be used to predict students' engineering major and career intentions and (2) the MUSIC Model of Motivation components could be used to predict domain identification. The data for this study were collected from first-year engineering students. We used a structural equation model to test the hypothesised relationship between variables in the partial domain identification model. The findings suggested that engineering identification significantly predicted engineering major intentions and career intentions and had the highest effect on those two variables compared to other motivational constructs. Furthermore, results suggested that success, interest, and caring are plausible contributors to students' engineering identification. Overall, there is strong evidence that the domain identification model can be used as a lens to study career decision-making processes in engineering, and potentially, in other fields as well.

  15. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  16. Decision-making models in the analysis of portal films: a clinical pilot study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See, A.; Johansen, J.; Hamilton, C.; Bydder, S.A.; Hawkins, J.; Roff, M.; Denham, J.; Kron, T.

    2000-01-01

    Portal films continue to play an important role in the verification of radiotherapy treatment. There is still some discussion, however, as to what action should be taken after a port film has shown a radiation field deviation from the prescribed volume. It was the aim of the present pilot study to investigate the performance of three decision-making models ('Amsterdam', 'Quebec' and 'Newcastle') and an expert panel basing their decision on intuition rather than formal rules after portal film acquisition in a clinical setting. Portal films were acquired on every day during the first week of treatment for five head and neck and five prostate cancer patients (diagnostic phase). If required, the field position was modified according to our normal practice following the recommendation of the expert panel. In order to analyse the results of the models, however, additional port films were taken in the following 3 treatment weeks with the patient moved as required by the different models (intervention phase). The portal films were taken over 4 consecutive days, positioning the patient according to each of the different models on one day each. None of the models diagnosed a field misplacement in the head and neck patients, while the 'Amsterdam' and 'Quebec' models predicted a move in one prostate patient. The 'Newcastle' model, which is based on Hotelling's T 2 statistic, proved to be more sensitive and diagnosed a systematic displacement for three prostate patients. The intervention phase confirmed the diagnosis of the model, even if the three portal films taken with the patient position adjusted as required by the model proved to be insufficient to demonstrate an improvement. The 'Newcastle' model does not rely on assumptions about the random movement of patients and requires five portal films before a decision can be reached. This approach lends itself well to incorporation into electronic portal imaging 'packages', where repeated image acquisitions present no logistical

  17. Strategies for memory-based decision making: Modeling behavioral and neural signatures within a cognitive architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fechner, Hanna B; Pachur, Thorsten; Schooler, Lael J; Mehlhorn, Katja; Battal, Ceren; Volz, Kirsten G; Borst, Jelmer P

    2016-12-01

    How do people use memories to make inferences about real-world objects? We tested three strategies based on predicted patterns of response times and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses: one strategy that relies solely on recognition memory, a second that retrieves additional knowledge, and a third, lexicographic (i.e., sequential) strategy, that considers knowledge conditionally on the evidence obtained from recognition memory. We implemented the strategies as computational models within the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) cognitive architecture, which allowed us to derive behavioral and neural predictions that we then compared to the results of a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study in which participants inferred which of two cities is larger. Overall, versions of the lexicographic strategy, according to which knowledge about many but not all alternatives is searched, provided the best account of the joint patterns of response times and BOLD responses. These results provide insights into the interplay between recognition and additional knowledge in memory, hinting at an adaptive use of these two sources of information in decision making. The results highlight the usefulness of implementing models of decision making within a cognitive architecture to derive predictions on the behavioral and neural level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

    2015-11-01

    In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.

  20. Exploring a Laboratory Model of Pharmacogenetics as Applied to Clinical Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F. Kisor

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate a pilot of a laboratory model for relating pharmacogenetics to clinical decision making. Case Study: This pilot was undertaken and evaluated to help determine if a pharmacogenetics laboratory should be included in the core Doctor of Pharmacy curriculum. The placement of the laboratory exercise in the curriculum was determined by identifying the point in the curriculum where the students had been introduced to the chemistry of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA as well as instructed on the chemistry of genetic variation. The laboratory included cytochrome P450 2C19 genotyping relative to the *2 variant. Twenty-four students served as the pilot group. Students provided buccal swabs as the source of DNA. Students stabilized the samples and were then provided instructions related to sample preparation, polymerase chain reaction, and gel electrophoresis. The results were reported as images of gels. Students used a reference gel image to compare their results to. Students then applied a dosing algorithm to make a "clinical decision" relative to clopidogrel use. Students were offered a post laboratory survey regarding attitudes toward the laboratory. Twenty-four students completed the laboratory with genotyping results being provided for 22 students (91.7%. Sixteen students were wild-type (*1/*1, while six students were heterozygous (*1/*2. Twenty-three students (96% completed the post laboratory survey. All 23 agreed (6, 26.1% or strongly agreed (17, 73.9% that the laboratory "had relevance and value in the pharmacy curriculum" Conclusion: The post pilot study survey exploring a laboratory model for pharmacogenetics related to clinical decision making indicated that such a laboratory would be viewed positively by students. This model may be adopted by colleges to expand pharmacogenetics education.   Type: Case Study

  1. THE APPROACH TO IMMITATION DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN SYSTEM OF MODELLING OF MILITARY OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Rulko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main requirement to imitating modeling of military operations adequacy. Proceeding from it is necessary that the behavior of modeling objects has been as much as possible approached to behavior of real objects in the same conditions of conditions or, at least, did not contradict logic of common sense and requirements of authorized documents. It creates necessity of working out of the mechanism, allowing to formalize administrative experience of commanders of corresponding levels and automatically to deduce decisions, on the basis of parameters of a current situation and preliminary set solving rules.As a rule, in decision-making process, the commander operates with difficult formalizable information at level of complex categories. Contrary to it, the object condition in modeling system is described in the form of a set of values of concrete parameters. For transformation of set of parameters of objects to parameters of higher level the method of the analysis of hierarchies is used.Thus there is the second problem demanding the permission synthesis of the device of decision-making on the basis of the received complex concepts. Use of the mechanism of an indistinct logic conclusion for this purpose is offered. In this case preference of a choice of this or that variant of behavior is set depending on character of crossing of the indistinct sets defined by the expert which functions of an accessory are constructed on axes generated before complex parameters. In quality konsekvents solving rules in advance generated strategy of behavior of modeling objects in this connection in offered algorithm actually there is no stage defuzzyfication act, and for accumulation of the conclusions the formula of algebraic association isused. The offered approach allows to carry out an automatic choice of alternative of behavior during modeling without participation of the operator.

  2. Multiscale modelling and analysis of collective decision making in swarm robotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable.

  3. Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

    2018-02-01

    China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

  4. Multiscale Modelling and Analysis of Collective Decision Making in Swarm Robotics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable. PMID:25369026

  5. An integrated model of decision-making in health contexts: the role of science education in health education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Julia C.

    2018-03-01

    Health education is to foster health literacy, informed decision-making and to promote health behaviour. To date, there are several models that seek to explain health behaviour (e.g. the Theory of Planned Behaviour or the Health Belief Model). These models include motivational factors (expectancies and values) that play a role in decision-making in health contexts. In this theoretical paper, it is argued that none of these models makes consequent use of expectancy-value pairs. It is further argued that in order to make these models fruitful for science education and for informed decision-making, models should systematically incorporate knowledge as part of the decision-making process. To fill this gap, this theoretical paper introduces The Integrated Model of Decision-Making in Health Contexts. This model includes three types of knowledge (system health knowledge, action-related health knowledge and effectiveness health knowledge) as influencing factors for motivational factors (perceived health threat, attitude towards health action, attitude towards health outcome and subjective norm) that are formed of expectancy-value pairs and lead to decisions. The model's potential for health education in science education as well as research implications is discussed.

  6. Dynamics of Metabolism and Decision Making During Alcohol Consumption: Modeling and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraldo, Luis Felipe; Passino, Kevin M; Clapp, John D; Ruderman, Danielle

    2017-11-01

    Heavy alcohol consumption is considered an important public health issue in the United States as over 88 000 people die every year from alcohol-related causes. Research is being conducted to understand the etiology of alcohol consumption and to develop strategies to decrease high-risk consumption and its consequences, but there are still important gaps in determining the main factors that influence the consumption behaviors throughout the drinking event. There is a need for methodologies that allow us not only to identify such factors but also to have a comprehensive understanding of how they are connected and how they affect the dynamical evolution of a drinking event. In this paper, we use previous empirical findings from laboratory and field studies to build a mathematical model of the blood alcohol concentration dynamics in individuals that are in drinking events. We characterize these dynamics as the result of the interaction between a decision-making system and the metabolic process for alcohol. We provide a model of the metabolic process for arbitrary alcohol intake patterns and a characterization of the mechanisms that drive the decision-making process of a drinker during the drinking event. We use computational simulations and Lyapunov stability theory to analyze the effects of the parameters of the model on the blood alcohol concentration dynamics that are characterized. Also, we propose a methodology to inform the model using data collected in situ and to make estimations that provide additional information to the analysis. We show how this model allows us to analyze and predict previously observed behaviors, to design new approaches for the collection of data that improves the construction of the model, and help with the design of interventions.

  7. Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for the Material Flow of Resonant Wood Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Aláč

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making model, for the selection and evaluation of the most valuable wooden input—resonant wood. Application of a given model can improve the process of input valuation as well as impact and improve particular economic indicators for the resonant wood manufacturer. We have tried to describe and evaluate the supply chain of resonant wood manufacturing and production of musical instruments. Particular value-added and non-value-added activities have been chosen according to the logical sequence of technology. Then, concrete criteria were specified and their significance weightings. Another important part of our paper is the description of resonant wood, specifications, and demands on log and wood species. There are some important physical and mechanical properties which should be taken into account and evaluated during the production of musical instruments. By the application of this model, a particular enterprise can reach an enhanced tool for the continuous evaluation of the product flowing through the supply chain. Visibility of particular operations and their logical sequence, presented by Petri nets, can lead to easier detection of possible defects in these operations and their origin. So, the main purpose of the paper lies in the suggestion of an objective and quantified managerial tool for the decision making.

  8. Learning from Multiple Classifier Systems: Perspectives for Improving Decision Making of QSAR Models in Medicinal Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham-The, Hai; Nam, Nguyen-Hai; Nga, Doan-Viet; Hai, Dang Thanh; Dieguez-Santana, Karel; Marrero-Poncee, Yovani; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Casanola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong

    2018-02-09

    Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling has been widely used in medicinal chemistry and computational toxicology for many years. Today, as the amount of chemicals is increasing dramatically, QSAR methods have become pivotal for the purpose of handling the data, identifying a decision, and gathering useful information from data processing. The advances in this field have paved a way for numerous alternative approaches that require deep mathematics in order to enhance the learning capability of QSAR models. One of these directions is the use of Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) that potentially provide a means to exploit the advantages of manifold learning through decomposition frameworks, while improving generalization and predictive performance. In this paper, we presented MCS as a next generation of QSAR modeling techniques and discuss the chance to mining the vast number of models already published in the literature. We systematically revisited the theoretical frameworks of MCS as well as current advances in MCS application for QSAR practice. Furthermore, we illustrated our idea by describing ensemble approaches on modeling histone deacetylase (HDACs) inhibitors. We expect that our analysis would contribute to a better understanding about MCS application and its future perspectives for improving the decision making of QSAR models. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  9. Encapsulation of a Decision-Making Model to Optimize Supplier Selection via Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahul Hameed, Ruzanna; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Yong, Lee Choon; Ghazali, Azrul; Itam, Zarina; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Beddu, Salmia; Liyana Mohd Kamal, Nur

    2016-03-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework to compare criteria/factor that influence the supplier selection. A mixed methods approach comprising qualitative and quantitative survey will be used. The study intend to identify and define the metrics that key stakeholders at Public Works Department (PWD) believed should be used for supplier. The outcomes would foresee the possible initiatives to bring procurement in PWD to a strategic level. The results will provide a deeper understanding of drivers for supplier’s selection in the construction industry. The obtained output will benefit many parties involved in the supplier selection decision-making. The findings provides useful information and greater understanding of the perceptions that PWD executives hold regarding supplier selection and the extent to which these perceptions are consistent with findings from prior studies. The findings from this paper can be utilized as input for policy makers to outline any changes in the current procurement code of practice in order to enhance the degree of transparency and integrity in decision-making.

  10. Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-11-01

    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

  11. Commercial exchanges in B2B Dyads. A new model of decision-making in fast changing markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno Bragado, Elisa

    2003-01-01

    This dissertation presents a Model of Commercial Exchanges in B2B Dyads. This model explains how buying and selling decisions are made in industrial markets that are subject to continuous change, particularly the market for telecommunication products and services.Buying and selling decision-making

  12. Discharge destination following lower limb fracture: development of a prediction model to assist with decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, Lara A; Holland, Anne E; Edwards, Elton R; Cameron, Peter A; De Steiger, Richard; Page, Richard S; Gabbe, Belinda

    2012-06-01

    Accurate prediction of the likelihood of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation following lower limb fracture made on admission to hospital may assist patient discharge planning and decrease the burden on the hospital system caused by delays in decision making. To develop a prognostic model for discharge to inpatient rehabilitation. Isolated lower extremity fracture cases (excluding fractured neck of femur), captured by the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry (VOTOR), were extracted for analysis. A training data set was created for model development and validation data set for evaluation. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed based on patient and injury characteristics. Models were assessed using measures of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic). A total of 1429 patients met the inclusion criteria and were randomly split into training and test data sets. Increasing age, more proximal fracture type, compensation or private fund source for the admission, metropolitan location of residence, not working prior to injury and having a self-reported pre-injury disability were included in the final prediction model. The C-statistic for the model was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88, 0.95) with an H-L statistic of χ(2)=11.62, p=0.17. For the test data set, the C-statistic was 0.86 (95% CI 0.83, 0.90) with an H-L statistic of χ(2)=37.98, plower limb fracture was developed with excellent discrimination although the calibration was reduced in the test data set. This model requires prospective testing but could form an integral part of decision making in regards to discharge disposition to facilitate timely and accurate referral to rehabilitation and optimise resource allocation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects(alternatives)for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals(WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost",will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost" are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

  14. Decision Making Model for Ro-Ro Short Sea Shipping Operations in Archipelagic Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminuddin Md Arof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to develop a decision-making model for determining the potential of interstate Ro-Ro Short Sea Shipping (SSS operations in Archipelagic Southeast Asia (ASEA. It is expected to assist SSS authorities, private investors and financial institutions focus their limited resources on several key factors that could ensure the success of their undertakings. This study will begin with identifying the relevant factors that have contributed towards successful SSS operations through a process of literature review. Subsequently, a Delphi survey was conducted with sub-regional experts to identify any new determinants and assess their opinions on the relative importance of all the determinants involved. Finally the weightages of the determinants were ascertained through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Twenty expert respondents from Brunei Darussalam. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were involved in the Delphi survey while 18 expert respondents continue to participate in the AHP survey. This study concludes with the development of a decision-making model that was tested on three interstate Ro-Ro SSS routes within the ASEA sub-region. Keywords: Archipelagic Southeast Asia, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP, ASEAN, Delphi, Ro-Ro, Short Sea Shipping (SSS

  15. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  16. A model for selecting project team members using multicriteria group decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Hazin Alencar

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Selecting a project team is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem. For this reason, one appropriate way to tackle such problems involves the use of multi-criteria decision aid methods. However, most of the decisions taken regarding the selection of project teams are made by a group of people. It is this which changes the focus of the problem by moving from one decision-maker (DM to a group of DMs. Analysis needs to be extended in order to consider the preference structure of each individual group member. In this paper, we present a group decision model for project team selection based on a multi-criteria evaluation of the preferences of a client's representatives. It could be applied to any decision problem since it involves a group of decision makers whose preferences diverge little. An application of the model in order to select consultants for a construction project is presented.A seleção da equipe em um projeto é um problema de decisão multicritério. Uma forma apropriada de tratar tais problemas envolve o uso de métodos de apoio multicritério a decisão. Grande parte desses problemas envolve um grupo de decisores. Dessa forma, há uma mudança no foco da decisão de um decisor para um grupo de decisores. A análise deve ser ampliada no intuito de considerar a estrutura de preferência de cada membro do grupo. Nesse artigo, apresentamos um modelo aplicado à seleção de equipe de um projeto baseado na avaliação multicritério das preferências dos representantes do cliente do projeto. Pode ser aplicado a qualquer problema de decisão desde que envolva um grupo de decisores que tenham pequena divergência em relação às suas preferências. Uma aplicação para seleção de parte da equipe de um projeto de construção é apresentada.

  17. Functional Freedom: A Psychological Model of Freedom in Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Stephan; Hiemisch, Anette

    2017-07-05

    The freedom of a decision is not yet sufficiently described as a psychological variable. We present a model of functional decision freedom that aims to fill that role. The model conceptualizes functional freedom as a capacity of people that varies depending on certain conditions of a decision episode. It denotes an inner capability to consciously shape complex decisions according to one's own values and needs. Functional freedom depends on three compensatory dimensions: it is greatest when the decision-maker is highly rational, when the structure of the decision is highly underdetermined, and when the decision process is strongly based on conscious thought and reflection. We outline possible research questions, argue for psychological benefits of functional decision freedom, and explicate the model's implications on current knowledge and research. In conclusion, we show that functional freedom is a scientific variable, permitting an additional psychological foothold in research on freedom, and that is compatible with a deterministic worldview.

  18. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Gilbert

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, quality of healthcare that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 mo. and aged (23-25 mo. male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (1 food pellet and a large but uncertain reward (2 food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100% to 0%. Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the smaller but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for costs (i.e., delay, probability. These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct neural mechanisms that can impact cost

  19. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Ryan J; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L

    2011-01-01

    Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 months) and aged (23-25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost-benefit decision-making.

  20. A Multi Criteria Group Decision-Making Model for Teacher Evaluation in Higher Education Based on Cloud Model and Decision Tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ting-Cheng; Wang, Hui

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a cloud multi-criteria group decision-making model for teacher evaluation in higher education which is involving subjectivity, imprecision and fuzziness. First, selecting the appropriate evaluation index depending on the evaluation objectives, indicating a clear structural relationship between the evaluation index and…

  1. A Hybrid Decision-Making Model for Selecting Container Seaport in the Persian Gulf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jafar Sayareh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Ports have always played a vital role in international transportation. Port selection decision is a process that requires consideration of many important and relevant criteria. The selection of the influential decision-making criteria is also a significant and vital issue which demands cautious thoughts. The main objective of this paper is to weigh the most dominant decision-making criteria by Technique for Order Preference to Similarity by Ideal Solution (TOPSIS and select an optimised container seaport in the Persian Gulf by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP according to decisive port selection factors. This paper presents an extensive review of port selection decision-making attributes in different past studies. Finally, by using TOPSIS and AHP, the findings of this research suggest that the working time, stevedoring rate, safety, port entrance, sufficient draft, capacity of port facilities, operating cost, number of berths, ship chandelling, and international policies are critical factors for selecting container seaport in the Persian Gulf.

  2. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2017-01-01

    optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no......-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying......Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future...

  3. Exploring a Laboratory Model of Pharmacogenetics as Applied to Clinical Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Smith, PharmD Candidate

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate a pilot of a laboratory model for relating pharmacogenetics to clinical decision making. Case Study: This pilot was undertaken and evaluated to help determine if a pharmacogenetics laboratory should be included in the core Doctor of Pharmacy curriculum. The placement of the laboratory exercise in the curriculum was determined by identifying the point in the curriculum where the students had been introduced to the chemistry of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA as well as instructed on the chemistry of genetic variation. The laboratory included cytochrome P450 2C19 genotyping relative to the *2 variant. Twenty-four students served as the pilot group. Students provided buccal swabs as the source of DNA. Students stabilized the samples and were then provided instructions related to sample preparation, polymerase chain reaction, and gel electrophoresis. The results were reported as images of gels. Students used a reference gel image to compare their results to. Students then applied a dosing algorithm to make a “clinical decision” relative to clopidogrel use. Students were offered a post laboratory survey regarding attitudes toward the laboratory. Twenty-four students completed the laboratory with genotyping results being provided for 22 students (91.7%. Sixteen students were wild-type (*1/*1, while six students were heterozygous (*1/*2. Twenty-three students (96% completed the post laboratory survey. All 23 agreed (6, 26.1% or strongly agreed (17, 73.9% that the laboratory “had relevance and value in the pharmacy curriculum”. Conclusion: The post pilot study survey exploring a laboratory model for pharmacogenetics related to clinical decision making indicated that such a laboratory would be viewed positively by students. This model may be adopted by colleges to expand pharmacogenetics education.

  4. Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

    2017-12-01

    The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

  5. A Modeling Framework for Prognostic Decision Making and its Application to UAV Mission Planning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of prognostic decision making (PDM) is to utilize information on anticipated system health changes in selecting future actions. One of the key challenges in...

  6. Tactical Decision Making under Categorical Uncertainty with Applications to Modeling and Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kemmerer, Kacey E

    2008-01-01

    ...) and individual differences affect response time in decision-making tasks. The researchers elicited real-world tactical scenarios from veterans of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom in which uncertainty was present...

  7. An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S

    2015-07-15

    The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2017-01-01

    Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future

  9. A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

    OpenAIRE

    Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

    2017-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress...

  10. The Use of Game Theory for Making Rational Decisions in Business Negations: A Conceptual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kestutis Peleckis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The objective of this paper is a comparative analysis of the world literature on game theory and its applicability for rational decision-making in negotiations and creation of a model supporting strategic decisions in negotiations. Research Design & Methods: Systematic, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis of the scientific literature. In order to create an algorithm of negotiations statements on theory of graphs, game theory and theory of heuristic algorithm were applied. Findings: The article proposes an algorithm which combines the game theory approach with heuristic algorithms in order to reflect the specifics of negotiations better. Such an algorithm can be used to support strategic decisions in negotiations and is useful for better understanding of the strategic management of negotiating processes. Implications & Recommendations: The proposed mathematical algorithm for the strategy formulation of international business negotiations can be used in electronic business negotiations, both as a standalone tool, or as partially requiring support by the negotiator. Contribution & Value Added: The game theory methods support rational solutions in business negotiations, as they enable to analyse the interacting forces. This is particularly relevant in international business negotiations, where participants from different cultures can be faced with numerous uncertainties.

  11. Functional Freedom: A Psychological Model of Freedom in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Stephan; Hiemisch, Anette

    2017-01-01

    The freedom of a decision is not yet sufficiently described as a psychological variable. We present a model of functional decision freedom that aims to fill that role. The model conceptualizes functional freedom as a capacity of people that varies depending on certain conditions of a decision episode. It denotes an inner capability to consciously shape complex decisions according to one’s own values and needs. Functional freedom depends on three compensatory dimensions: it is greatest when the decision-maker is highly rational, when the structure of the decision is highly underdetermined, and when the decision process is strongly based on conscious thought and reflection. We outline possible research questions, argue for psychological benefits of functional decision freedom, and explicate the model’s implications on current knowledge and research. In conclusion, we show that functional freedom is a scientific variable, permitting an additional psychological foothold in research on freedom, and that is compatible with a deterministic worldview. PMID:28678165

  12. Planning a Stigmatized Nonvisible Illness Disclosure: Applying the Disclosure Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soe Yoon; Venetis, Maria K.; Greene, Kathryn; Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G.; Banerjee, Smita C.

    2016-01-01

    This study applied the disclosure decision-making model (DD-MM) to explore how individuals plan to disclose nonvisible illness (Study 1), compared to planning to disclose personal information (Study 2). Study 1 showed that perceived stigma from the illness negatively predicted disclosure efficacy; closeness predicted anticipated response (i.e., provision of support) although it did not influence disclosure efficacy; disclosure efficacy led to reduced planning, with planning leading to scheduling. Study 2 demonstrated that when information was considered to be intimate, it negatively influenced disclosure efficacy. Unlike the model with stigma (Study 1), closeness positively predicted both anticipated response and disclosure efficacy. The rest of the hypothesized relationships showed a similar pattern to Study 1: disclosure efficacy reduced planning, which then positively influenced scheduling. Implications of understanding stages of planning for stigmatized information are discussed. PMID:27662447

  13. Social media monitoring model to guide decision making of destination management organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Mendes Thomaz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The widespread adoption of social media by users and organizations has generated an exponential increase in data and content that offer opportunities to be processed into information and knowledge. However, dealing with such data is considered a challenge and requires the use of adequate resources. Considering this scenario, the aim of this study was to present a social media monitoring model to support decision making by DMOs. The model proposed has been tested before and during the 2014 FIFA World Cup, using Curitiba and Foz do Iguaçu (Paraná State as destinations, having a structured of seven stages. The results of the period were composed of about 50,000 messages, tours and associated ontology application. A large part of the frequency relations, between attractions or between host cities, have been com-patible with their reality in the tourist trade.

  14. Driver's Behavior and Decision-Making Optimization Model in Mixed Traffic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyuan Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Driving process is an information treating procedure going on unceasingly. It is very important for the research of traffic flow theory, to study on drivers' information processing pattern in mixed traffic environment. In this paper, bicycle is regarded as a kind of information source to vehicle drivers; the “conflict point method” is brought forward to analyze the influence of bicycles on driving behavior. The “conflict” is studied to be translated into a special kind of car-following or lane-changing process. Furthermore, the computer clocked scan step length is dropped to 0.1 s, in order to scan and analyze the dynamic (static information which influences driving behavior in a more exact way. The driver's decision-making process is described through information fusion based on duality contrast and fuzzy optimization theory. The model test and verification show that the simulation results with the “conflict point method” and the field data are consistent basically. It is feasible to imitate driving behavior and the driver information fusion process with the proposed methods. Decision-making optimized process can be described more accurately through computer precision clocked scan strategy. The study in this paper can provide the foundation for further research of multiresource information fusion process of driving behavior.

  15. Studies on Interpretive Structural Model for Forest Ecosystem Management Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Suqing; Gao, Xiumei; Zen, Qunying; Zhou, Yuanman; Huang, Yuequn; Han, Weidong; Li, Linfeng; Li, Jiping; Pu, Yingshan

    Characterized by their openness, complexity and large scale, forest ecosystems interweave themselves with social system, economic system and other natural ecosystems, thus complicating both their researches and management decision-making. According to the theories of sustainable development, hierarchy-competence levels, cybernetics and feedback, 25 factors have been chosen from human society, economy and nature that affect forest ecosystem management so that they are systematically analyzed via developing an interpretive structural model (ISM) to reveal their relationships and positions in the forest ecosystem management. The ISM consists of 7 layers with the 3 objectives for ecosystem management being the top layer (the seventh layer). The ratio between agricultural production value and industrial production value as the bases of management decision-making in forest ecosystems becomes the first layer at the bottom because it has great impacts on the values of society and the development trends of forestry, while the factors of climatic environments, intensive management extent, management measures, input-output ratio as well as landscape and productivity are arranged from the second to sixth layers respectively.

  16. Tools for collaborative decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Zaraté, Pascale

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

  17. A mapping of design decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Claus Thorp; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we present the decision score, which is a model of decision-making seen in the engineering designer's perspective of the design process dynamics, where a decision has multiple objects and where it is based on earlier decisions, prediction of consequences and design process progressi...

  18. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  19. A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matúš Adamkovič

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1 cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress; (2 executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control; (3 intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4 economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference, with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

  20. A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

    2017-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress); (2) executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control); (3) intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4) economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference), with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

  1. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  2. How modeling and simulation have enhanced decision making in new drug development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Raymond; Ewy, Wayne; Corrigan, Brian W; Ouellet, Daniele; Hermann, David; Kowalski, Kenneth G; Lockwood, Peter; Koup, Jeffrey R; Donevan, Sean; El-Kattan, Ayman; Li, Cheryl S W; Werth, John L; Feltner, Douglas E; Lalonde, Richard L

    2005-04-01

    The idea of model-based drug development championed by Lewis Sheiner, in which pharmacostatistical models of drug efficacy and safety are developed from preclinical and available clinical data, offers a quantitative approach to improving drug development and development decision-making. Examples are presented that support this paradigm. The first example describes a preclinical model of behavioral activity to predict potency and time-course of response in humans and assess the potential for differentiation between compounds. This example illustrates how modeling procedures expounded by Lewis Sheiner provided the means to differentiate potency and the lag time between drug exposure and response and allow for rapid decision making and dose selection. The second example involves planning a Phase 2a dose-ranging and proof of concept trial in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The issue was how to proceed with the study and what criteria to use for a go/no go decision. The combined knowledge of AD disease progression, and preclinical and clinical information about the drug were used to simulate various clinical trial scenarios to identify an efficient and effective Phase 2 study. A design was selected and carried out resulting in a number of important learning experiences as well as extensive financial savings. The motivation for this case in point was the "Learn-Confirm" paradigm described by Lewis Sheiner. The final example describes the use of Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling and simulation to confirm efficacy across doses. In the New Drug Application for gabapentin, data from two adequate and well-controlled clinical trials was submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in support of the approval of the indication for the treatment of post-herpetic neuralgia. The clinical trial data was not replicated for each of the sought dose levels in the drug application presenting a regulatory dilemma. Exposure response analysis submitted in the New Drug

  3. An integrated ethical approach to bioethical decision-making: A proposed model for ministers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena C. de Lange

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This article outlined a model for guidance in ‘doing’ bioethics in a Reformed context. The proposed model suggested that in order to arrive at responsible ethical decisions, one must refer to both contextual elements and theory. The theoretical grounding for this model was based on the integration of a deontological and virtue ethics approach, arguing that virtue enables persons to know and desire the right moral ends and motivates them to carry out appropriate action toward achieving these ends. An integrative model opens up the possibility whereby bioethics as a systematic tool provides the individual decision-maker with the critical-reflective skills and justification for the ultimate choice that is lacking in the general decision-making processes. This could lead to clearer thinking and increased confidence in the justification of decisions within the Reformed tradition. The proposed hermeneutical perspective on ethical decision-making represents a shift in views about the nature of knowledge and the process of how we come to know. The key to this hermeneutical approach is to acknowledge the dialectic between the universal and the subjectivity of human relations. Working in specific religious communities, one needs to take cognisance of the fact that knowledge is situated in the context of human relationships in which the interpreter participates when articulating the meaning of bioethical experiences. Another aspect that is anticipated lies in the realisation that people struggling with bioethical dilemmas should not be viewed as isolated individuals, but as members of a broader faith community. ‘n Geïntegreerde etiese benadering tot bioetiese besluitneming: Voorgestelde model vir predikante. Hierdie artikel het ‘n model geskets wat moontlike riglyne aantoon vir die  beoefening  van  bioetiek  binne  ‘n  Gereformeerde  konteks.  Die  voorgestelde  model argumenteer dat verwysing na beide kontekstuele elemente en teorie

  4. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-11-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

  5. A Response-Time Approach to Comparing Generalized Rational and Take-the-Best Models of Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergert, F. Bryan; Nosofsky, Robert M.

    2007-01-01

    The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT)…

  6. Entrepreneurs` Cognitive and Decision Making Styles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Motvaseli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.

  7. Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romilly, Peter

    2005-07-01

    Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

  8. Theoretical foundations of human decision-making in agent-based land use models – A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, Geert J.; Müller, B.; Buchmann, C.M.; Dressler, Gunnar; Guo, C.; Hase, N.; Hoffmann, F.; John, F.; Klassert, C.; Lauf, T.; Liebelt, V.; Nolzen, H.; Pannicke, N.; Schulze, J.; Weise, H.; Schwarz, N.

    2017-01-01

    Recent reviews stated that the complex and context-dependent nature of human decision-making resulted in ad-hoc representations of human decision in agent-based land use change models (LUCC ABMs) and that these representations are often not explicitly grounded in theory. However, a systematic survey

  9. Modelling financial risk in open pit mine projects: Implications for strategic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Sabour, S.A.; Wood, G.

    2009-01-01

    Strategic decisions in the mining industry are made under multiple technical and market uncertainties. Therefore, to reach the best possible decision, based on information available, it is necessary to integrate uncertainty about the input variables and model financial risk of the project's merit measures. However, this rovides few useful insights to decision-makers unless accompanied by modeling management responses to uncertainty resolutions. It is widely acknowledged that conventional deci...

  10. Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

  11. Couples' fertility decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Stein

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The decision about whether to start a family within a partnership can be viewed as a result of an interaction process. The influence of each of the partners in a couple differs depending on their individual preferences and intentions towards having children. Both of the partners additionally influence each other's fertility intentions and preferences. Objective: We specify, estimate, and test a model that examines the decision about whether to have a child as a choice that is made jointly by the two partners. The transition to the birth of a (further child is investigated with the explicit consideration of both the female partner and the male partner in the partnership context. Methods: An approach for modelling the interactive influences of the two actors in the decision-making process was proposed. A trivariate distribution consisting of both the female and the male partners' fertility intentions, as well as the joint generative decision, was modelled. A multivariate non-linear probit model was chosen and the problem of identification in estimating the relative effects of the actors was resolved. These parameters were used to assess the relative importance of each of the partners' intentions in the decision. We carried out the analysis with MPLUS. Data from the panel of intimate relationships and family dynamics (pairfam was used to estimate the model. Results: The biographical context of each of the partners in relation to their own as well as to their partner's fertility intentions was found to be of considerable importance. Of the significant individual and partner effects, the male partner was shown to have the greater influence. But the female partner was found to have stronger parameters overall and she ultimately has a veto power in the couple's final decision.

  12. Emotions, Mood and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Agnes Virlics

    2014-01-01

    Decisions are made according to a complex cognitive and emotional evaluation of the situation. The aim of the paper is to examine the effect of mood on risky investment decision making by using a mood induction procedure. The paper investigates how happy and sad mood affects risky investment decision making and whether there is a difference between the perception of fix investments and monetary investments. The analysis has been conducted focusing on individual investment decisions. Data for ...

  13. GROUPS DECISION MAKING WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Stan

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In a highly global market, organizations that have the ability to analyze and rapidly respond to the constantly changing marketplace will have the greatest chance of remaining competitive and profitable. Group decision making is the process of arriving at a judgment based upon the feedback of multiple individuals. Due to the importance of the group decision making process, decision making models can be used to establish a systematic means of developing effective group decision making. Once a decision has been made, the members of the group should be willing to accept it and support its implementations.

  14. Regret in Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Connolly, T.; Zeelenberg, M.

    2002-01-01

    Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities

  15. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Webb, Colleen T.; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P.; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by

  16. Workplace accommodations for employees with disabilities: A multilevel model of employer decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telwatte, Apsara; Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K A; Moulding, Richard

    2017-02-01

    Existing research suggests that the decision to grant or deny workplace accommodations for people with disabilities is influenced by a range of legal and nonlegal factors. However, less is known about how these factors operate at the within-person level. Thus, we proposed and tested a multilevel model of the accommodation decision-making process, which we applied to better understand why people with psychological disabilities often experience greater challenges in obtaining accommodations. A sample of 159 Australian adults, composed mostly of managers and HR professionals, read 12 vignettes involving requests for accommodations from existing employees. The requests differed in whether they were for psychological or physical disabilities. For each vignette, participants rated their empathy with the employee, the legitimacy of the employee's disability, the necessity for productivity, the perceived cost, and the reasonableness, and indicated whether they would grant the accommodation. Multilevel modeling indicated that greater empathy, legitimacy, and necessity, and lower perceived cost predicted perceptions of greater reasonableness and greater granting. Accommodation requests from employees with psychological disabilities were seen as less reasonable and were less likely to be granted; much of this effect seemed to be driven by perceptions that such accommodations were less necessary for productivity. Ratings on accommodations were influenced both by general between-person tendencies and within-person appraisals of particular scenarios. The study points to a need for organizations to more clearly establish guidelines for how decision-makers should fairly evaluate accommodation requests for employees with psychological disabilities and disability more broadly. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV), we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives—crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed. PMID:25866412

  18. Using an ethical decision-making model to determine consequences for student plagiarism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Ermalynn M

    2006-06-01

    The incidence of plagiarism, intentional or unintentional, in the professional nursing arena has increased in recent years, as has the occurrence of plagiarism among nursing students. Strategies for cheating have become very sophisticated with the use of aids such as personal digital assistants, camera phones, and instant messaging. Cheating on written papers has also increased. The Internet provides students with ready-made research and academic papers, and access to Web sites on a plethora of topics. In this article, I describe my experience with plagiarism of ethics papers during students' final semester before graduation. How I discovered the plagiarized work and used the A-B-C-D-E ethical decision-making model in determining the student consequences for the event are presented.

  19. Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Shane D; Summers, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV) , we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives-crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed.

  20. Interactive use of simulation models for collaborative knowledge construction: the case of flood policy decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leskens, Anne

    2015-01-01

    There is an increasing use of interactive flood simulation models in work sessions with practitioners, which is supposed to be more effective than feeding static model results from conventional simulation models into the decision-making process. These interactive simulation models rely on fast and

  1. Collaborative Decision Making in METOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706

  2. Decision-making in healthcare: a practical application of partial least square path modelling to coverage of newborn screening programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Katharina E

    2012-08-02

    Decision-making in healthcare is complex. Research on coverage decision-making has focused on comparative studies for several countries, statistical analyses for single decision-makers, the decision outcome and appraisal criteria. Accounting for decision processes extends the complexity, as they are multidimensional and process elements need to be regarded as latent constructs (composites) that are not observed directly. The objective of this study was to present a practical application of partial least square path modelling (PLS-PM) to evaluate how it offers a method for empirical analysis of decision-making in healthcare. Empirical approaches that applied PLS-PM to decision-making in healthcare were identified through a systematic literature search. PLS-PM was used as an estimation technique for a structural equation model that specified hypotheses between the components of decision processes and the reasonableness of decision-making in terms of medical, economic and other ethical criteria. The model was estimated for a sample of 55 coverage decisions on the extension of newborn screening programmes in Europe. Results were evaluated by standard reliability and validity measures for PLS-PM. After modification by dropping two indicators that showed poor measures in the measurement models' quality assessment and were not meaningful for newborn screening, the structural equation model estimation produced plausible results. The presence of three influences was supported: the links between both stakeholder participation or transparency and the reasonableness of decision-making; and the effect of transparency on the degree of scientific rigour of assessment. Reliable and valid measurement models were obtained to describe the composites of 'transparency', 'participation', 'scientific rigour' and 'reasonableness'. The structural equation model was among the first applications of PLS-PM to coverage decision-making. It allowed testing of hypotheses in situations where there

  3. Challenges of implementing collaborative models of decision making with trans-identified patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewey, Jodie M

    2015-10-01

    Factors health providers face during the doctor-patient encounter both impede and assist the development of collaborative models of treatment. I investigated decision making among medical and therapeutic professionals who work with trans-identified patients to understand factors that might impede or facilitate the adoption of the collaborative decision-making model in their clinical work. Following a grounded theory approach, I collected and analysed data from semi-structured interviews with 10 U.S. physicians and 10 U.S. mental health professionals. Doctors and therapists often desire collaboration with their patients but experience dilemmas in treating the trans-identified patients. Dilemmas include lack of formal education, little to no institutional support and inconsistent understanding and application of the main documents used by professionals treating trans-patients. Providers face considerable risk in providing unconventional treatments due to the lack of institutional and academic support relating to the treatment for trans-people, and the varied interpretation and application of the diagnostic and treatment documents used in treating trans-people. To address this risk, the relationship with the patient becomes crucial. However, trust, a component required for collaboration, is thwarted when the patients feel obliged to present in ways aligned with these documents in order to receive desired treatments. When trust cannot be established, medical and mental health providers can and do delay or deny treatments, resulting in the imbalance of power between patient and provider. The documents created to assist in treatment actually thwart professional desire to work collaboratively with patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

    After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

  5. A multicriteria decision making model for assessment and selection of an ERP in a logistics context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Teresa; Ferreira, Fernanda A.

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this work is to apply a methodology of decision support based on a multicriteria decision analyses (MCDA) model that allows the assessment and selection of an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in a Portuguese logistics company by Group Decision Maker (GDM). A Decision Support system (DSS) that implements a MCDA - Multicriteria Methodology for the Assessment and Selection of Information Systems / Information Technologies (MMASSI / IT) is used based on its features and facility to change and adapt the model to a given scope. Using this DSS it was obtained the information system that best suited to the decisional context, being this result evaluated through a sensitivity and robustness analysis.

  6. Decision-making in healthcare: a practical application of partial least square path modelling to coverage of newborn screening programmes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer Katharina E

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision-making in healthcare is complex. Research on coverage decision-making has focused on comparative studies for several countries, statistical analyses for single decision-makers, the decision outcome and appraisal criteria. Accounting for decision processes extends the complexity, as they are multidimensional and process elements need to be regarded as latent constructs (composites that are not observed directly. The objective of this study was to present a practical application of partial least square path modelling (PLS-PM to evaluate how it offers a method for empirical analysis of decision-making in healthcare. Methods Empirical approaches that applied PLS-PM to decision-making in healthcare were identified through a systematic literature search. PLS-PM was used as an estimation technique for a structural equation model that specified hypotheses between the components of decision processes and the reasonableness of decision-making in terms of medical, economic and other ethical criteria. The model was estimated for a sample of 55 coverage decisions on the extension of newborn screening programmes in Europe. Results were evaluated by standard reliability and validity measures for PLS-PM. Results After modification by dropping two indicators that showed poor measures in the measurement models’ quality assessment and were not meaningful for newborn screening, the structural equation model estimation produced plausible results. The presence of three influences was supported: the links between both stakeholder participation or transparency and the reasonableness of decision-making; and the effect of transparency on the degree of scientific rigour of assessment. Reliable and valid measurement models were obtained to describe the composites of ‘transparency’, ‘participation’, ‘scientific rigour’ and ‘reasonableness’. Conclusions The structural equation model was among the first applications of PLS-PM to

  7. Evidence informed decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep

    2015-01-01

    from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....

  8. An Integrated Decision-Making Model for the Location of a PV Solar Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy H. I. Lee

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the increasing demand for electricity, the depletion of fossil fuels and the increase in environmental consciousness, generating power from renewable energy resources has become necessary. How to select the most appropriate site is a critical and foremost decision that must be made when setting up a renewable energy plant. This research proposes a two-stage framework for evaluating the suitability of renewable energy plant site alternatives. In the first stage, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP is adopted to set the assurance region (AR of the quantitative factors, and the AR is incorporated into data envelopment analysis (DEA to assess the efficiencies of plant site candidates. A few sites are selected for further analysis. In the second stage, experts are invited to evaluate the qualitative characteristics of the selected sites, and FAHP is used to calculate the priorities of these sites. Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources, because of its abundance, inexhaustibility, safety and cleanliness. Based on the proposed integrated decision-making model, a case study for selecting the most appropriate photovoltaic (PV solar plant site is examined.

  9. Constraint programming and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    2014-01-01

    In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...

  10. What is on your mind? Using the perceptual cycle model and critical decision method to understand the decision-making process in the cockpit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A

    2013-01-01

    Aeronautical decision-making is complex as there is not always a clear coupling between the decision made and decision outcome. As such, there is a call for process-orientated decision research in order to understand why a decision made sense at the time it was made. Schema theory explains how we interact with the world using stored mental representations and forms an integral part of the perceptual cycle model (PCM); proposed here as a way to understand the decision-making process. This paper qualitatively analyses data from the critical decision method (CDM) based on the principles of the PCM. It is demonstrated that the approach can be used to understand a decision-making process and highlights how influential schemata can be at informing decision-making. The reliability of this approach is established, the general applicability is discussed and directions for future work are considered. This paper introduces the PCM, and the associated schema theory, as a framework to structure and explain data collected from the CDM. The reliability of both the method and coding scheme is addressed.

  11. Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan

    2017-05-25

    The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

  12. Application of Spatial Models in Making Location Decisions of Wind Power Plant in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Płuciennik, Monika; Hełdak, Maria; Szczepański, Jakub; Patrzałek, Ciechosław

    2017-10-01

    In this paper,we explore the process of making decisions on the location of wind power plants in Poland in connection with a gradually increasing consumption of energy from renewable sources and the increase of impact problems of such facilities. The location of new wind power plants attracts much attention, and both positive and negative publicity. Visualisations can be of assistance when choosing the most advantageous location for a plant, as three-dimensional variants of the facility to be constructed can be prepared. This work involves terrestrial laser scanning of an existing wind power plant and 3D modelling followed by. The model could be subsequently used in visualisation of real terrain, with special purpose in local land development plan. This paper shows a spatial model of a wind power plant as a new element of a capital investment process in Poland. Next, we incorporate the model into an undeveloped site, intended for building a wind farm, subject to the requirements for location of power plants.

  13. A decision rule based on goal programming and one-stage models for uncertain multi-criteria mixed decision making and games against nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with games against nature and multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty along with scenario planning. We focus on decision problems where a deterministic evaluation of criteria is not possible. The procedure we propose is based on weighted goal programming and may be applied when seeking a mixed strategy. A mixed strategy allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new method takes into consideration the decision maker’s preference structure (importance of particular goals and nature (pessimistic, moderate or optimistic attitude towards a given problem. It is designed for one-shot decisions made under uncertainty with unknown probabilities (frequencies, i.e. for decision making under complete uncertainty or decision making under strategic uncertainty. The procedure refers to one-stage models, i.e. models considering combinations of scenarios and criteria (scenario-criterion pairs as distinct meta-attributes, which means that the novel approach can be used in the case of totally independent payoff matrices for particular targets. The algorithm does not require any information about frequencies, which is especially desirable for new decision problems. It can be successfully applied by passive decision makers, as only criteria weights and the coefficient of optimism have to be declared.

  14. How do small groups make decisions?

    OpenAIRE

    Chahine, Saad; Cristancho, Sayra; Padgett, Jessica; Lingard, Lorelei

    2017-01-01

    In the competency-based medical education (CBME) approach, clinical competency committees are responsible for making decisions about trainees? competence. However, we currently lack a?theoretical model for group decision-making to inform this emerging assessment phenomenon. This paper proposes an organizing framework to study and guide the decision-making processes of clinical competency committees. This is an explanatory, non-exhaustive review, tailored to identify relevant theoretical and e...

  15. Using Coupled Simulation Models to Link Pastoral Decision Making and Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall B. Boone

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid and arid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently, their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities. To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied those services to decisions that people make at the household level. We created an agent-based household model called DECUMA, joined that model with the ecosystem model SAVANNA, and applied the linked models to southeastern Kajiado District, Kenya. The structure of the new agent-based model and linkages between the models are described, and then we demonstrate the model results using a scenario that shows changes in Maasai well-being in response to drought. We then explore two additional but related scenarios, quantifying household well-being if access to a grazing reserve is lost and if access is lost but those most affected are compensated. In the second scenario, households in group ranches abutting the grazing reserve that lost access had large declines in livestock populations, less food energy from animal sources, increased livestock sales and grain purchases, and increased need for supplemental foods. Households in more distant areas showed no changes or had increases in livestock populations because their herds had fewer animals with which to compete for forage. When households neighboring the grazing reserve were compensated for the lease of the lands they had used, they prospered. We describe some benefits and limitations of the agent-based approach.

  16. Muticriteria decision making model for chosing between open source and non-open source software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmilson Alves de Moraes

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes the use of a multicriterio method for supporting decision on a problem where the intent is to chose for software given the options of open source and not-open source. The study shows how a method for decison making can be used to provide problem structuration and simplify the decision maker job. The method Analytic Hierarchy Process-AHP is described step-by-step and its benefits and flaws are discussed. Followin the theoretical discussion, a muliple case study is presented, where two companies are to use the decison making method. The analysis was supported by Expert Choice, a software developed based on AHP framework.

  17. Robust Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq

    2010-07-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.

  18. Safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise based on the relative entropy aggregation in group decision making model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jun; Li, Chengbing; Huo, Yueying

    2014-01-01

    Safety of dangerous goods transport is directly related to the operation safety of dangerous goods transport enterprise. Aiming at the problem of the high accident rate and large harm in dangerous goods logistics transportation, this paper took the group decision making problem based on integration and coordination thought into a multiagent multiobjective group decision making problem; a secondary decision model was established and applied to the safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise. First of all, we used dynamic multivalue background and entropy theory building the first level multiobjective decision model. Secondly, experts were to empower according to the principle of clustering analysis, and combining with the relative entropy theory to establish a secondary rally optimization model based on relative entropy in group decision making, and discuss the solution of the model. Then, after investigation and analysis, we establish the dangerous goods transport enterprise safety evaluation index system. Finally, case analysis to five dangerous goods transport enterprises in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region validates the feasibility and effectiveness of this model for dangerous goods transport enterprise recognition, which provides vital decision making basis for recognizing the dangerous goods transport enterprises.

  19. The development and implementation of a decision-making capacity assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmar, Jasneet; Brémault-Phillips, Suzette; Charles, Lesley

    2015-03-01

    Decision-making capacity assessment (DMCA) is an issue of increasing importance for older adults. Current challenges need to be explored, and potential processes and strategies considered in order to address issues of DMCA in a more coordinated manner. An iterative process was used to address issues related to DMCA. This began with recognition of challenges associated with capacity assessments (CAs) by staff at Covenant Health (CH). Review of the literature, as well as discussions with and a survey of staff at three CH sites, resulted in determination of issues related to DMCA. Development of a DMCA Model and demonstration of its feasibility followed. A process was proposed with front-end screening/problem- solving, a well-defined standard assessment, and definition of team member roles. A Capacity Assessment Care Map was formulated based on the process. Documentation was developed consisting of a Capacity Assessment Process Worksheet, Capacity Interview Worksheet, and a brochure. Interactive workshops were delivered to familiarize staff with the DMCA Model. A successful demonstration project led to implementation across all sites in the Capital Health region, and eventual provincial endorsement. Concerns identified in the survey and in the literature regarding CA were addressed through the holistic interdisciplinary approach offered by the DMCA Model.

  20. A Hybrid Multiattribute Decision Making Model for Evaluating Students’ Satisfaction towards Hostels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anath Rau Krishnan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new hybrid multiattribute decision making (MADM model which deals with the interactions that usually exist between hostel attributes in the process of measuring the students’ satisfaction towards a set of hostels and identifying the optimal strategies for enhancing their satisfaction. The model uses systematic random stratified sampling approach for data collection purpose as students dwelling in hostels are “naturally” clustered by block and gender, factor analysis for extracting large set of hostel attributes into fewer independent factors, λ-measure for characterizing the interactions shared by the attributes within each factor, Choquet integral for aggregating the interactive performance scores within each factor, Mikhailov’s fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (MFAHP for determining the weights of independent factors, and simple weighted average (SWA operator to measure the overall satisfaction score of each hostel. A real evaluation involving fourteen Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM hostels was carried out in order to demonstrate the model’s feasibility. The same evaluation was performed using an additive aggregation model in order to illustrate the effects of ignoring the interactions shared by attributes in hostel satisfaction analysis.

  1. Emotional Intelligence and Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A M Kustubayeva

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of the experimental research of the connection between the efficiency of decision making and emotional intelligence are presented in the article. The empirical data indicate that the ability to regulate emotion is an important indicator of the efficiency of decision making in the conditions of psychological experiment.

  2. Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice

    CERN Document Server

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael

    2007-01-01

    The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...

  3. Large-scale hydrological modelling and decision-making for sustainable water and land management along the Tarim River

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    The debate over the effectiveness of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in practice has lasted for years. As the complexity and scope of IWRM increases in practice, it is difficult for hydrological models to directly simulate the interactions among water, ecosystem and humans. This study presents the large-scale hydrological modeling (MIKE HYDRO) approach and a Decision Support System (DSS) for decision-making with stakeholders on the sustainable water and land management along the ...

  4. The Future of Computerized Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    professionals will be becoming more adept at scripting, modeling, graphical and statistical displays. Decision makers may, similarly, be less likely to shy...elsewhere in this proceedings (Sanchez 2014) simulation can be the core for model-driven big data and inferential decision-making. We need to stake... descriptive , not prescriptive.” In our field, we deal with prospective decision making. We have an advantage in this area: since our output data are

  5. Decision Making in Reference to Model of Marketing Predictive Analytics – Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to describe concepts and assumptions of predictive marketing analytics in reference to decision making. In particular, we highlight issues pertaining to the importance of data and the modern approach to data analysis and processing with the purpose of solving real marketing problems that companies encounter in business. Methodology: In this paper authors provide two study cases showing how, and to what extent predictive marketing analytics work can be useful in practice e.g., investigation of the marketing environment. The two cases are based on organizations operating mainly on Web site domain. The fi rst part of this article, begins a discussion with the explanation of a general idea of predictive marketing analytics. The second part runs through opportunities it creates for companies in the process of building strong competitive advantage in the market. The paper article ends with a brief comparison of predictive analytics versus traditional marketing-mix analysis. Findings: Analytics play an extremely important role in the current process of business management based on planning, organizing, implementing and controlling marketing activities. Predictive analytics provides the actual and current picture of the external environment. They also explain what problems are faced with the company in business activities. Analytics tailor marketing solutions to the right time and place at minimum costs. In fact they control the effi ciency and simultaneously increases the effectiveness of the firm. Practical implications: Based on the study cases comparing two enterprises carrying business activities in different areas, one can say that predictive analytics has far more been embraces extensively than classical marketing-mix analyses. The predictive approach yields greater speed of data collection and analysis, stronger predictive accuracy, better obtained competitor data, and more transparent models where one can

  6. Toward an Expanded Definition of Adaptive Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.

    1997-01-01

    Uses the lifespan, life-space model to examine the definition of adaptive decision making. Reviews the existing definition of adaptive decision making as "rational" decision making and offers alternate perspectives on decision making with an emphasis on the implications of using the model. Makes suggestions for future theory, research,…

  7. Neurobiological and Memory Models of Risky Decision Making in Adolescents versus Young Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Estrada, Steven M.; DeMarinis, Jessica A.; Myers, Regina M.; Stanisz, Janine M.; Mills, Britain A.

    2011-01-01

    Predictions of fuzzy-trace theory and neurobiological approaches are examined regarding risk taking in a classic decision-making task--the framing task--as well as in the context of real-life risk taking. We report the 1st study of framing effects in adolescents versus adults, varying risk and reward, and relate choices to individual differences,…

  8. Beyond the Bureaucratic Model: A Study of Power and Autonomy in Educational Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Mark

    1976-01-01

    This paper argues that there are at least two decision-making systems in the school: (1) the first reflects mainly school-wide affairs and lends itself to rational, centrally controlled procedures that restrict behaviors to conform with well-programmed events; and (2) the second reflects mainly classroom affairs and requires flexibility and…

  9. The job demands and resources decision making (JD-R-DM) model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gordon, H.J.; Demerouti, E.; Bipp, T.; Le Blanc, P.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores the effects of nurses’ daily job characteristics (i.e., job demands and resources) and general work engagement on their daily decision making (i.e., analytical and intuitive) and consequently their daily performance (i.e., task and contextual). Participants completed a baseline

  10. Agent-based Modelling of Social Emotional Decision Making in Emergency Situations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosse, T.; Hoogendoorn, M.; Klein, M.C.A.; Sharpanskykh, A.; Treur, J.; van der Wal, C.N.; van Wissen, A.

    2013-01-01

    Social decision making under stressful circumstances may involve strong emotions and contagion from others. Recent developments in Social Neuroscience have revealed neural mechanisms by which social contagion of cognitive and emotional states can be realised. In this paper, based on these

  11. Ethical Decision Making: A Teaching and Learning Model for Graduate Students and New Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, William M.; Ebelhar, Marcus Walker; Orehovec, Elizabeth R.; Sanderson, Robyn H.

    2006-01-01

    Student affairs practitioners are inundated with a variety of ethical considerations when making day-to-day decisions regarding the welfare of students and colleagues. There is every reason to believe that confronting ethical issues will be an increasingly difficult issue for student affairs professionals in the future. This article provides a…

  12. A multi-criteria decision-making model for evaluating priorities for foreign direct investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan K. Gokmenoglu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative priority of nine developed countries as a home country for foreign direct investment (FDI from the vantage point of the United States during three time periods: pre-crisis (2004-2006, crisis (2007-2009, and post-crisis (2010-2012. Our study suggests a methodology based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS, and the multi-period multi-attribute decision-making (MP-MADM technique. To investigate our research question, we selected fifteen robust FDI determinants from recent studies. The results for all three time periods show that productivity, market potential, market size, GDP growth and development have the highest priority in the decision-making process. On the other hand, we found that the 2007 global financial crisis significantly affected each variable in the decision-making process. During the crisis, two variables in particular - corruption and GDP growth - significantly increased in importance. These findings have far-reaching policy implications and can assist policymakers and investors in their strategic decision-making process.

  13. Understanding the Harms and Benefits of Cancer Screening: A Model of Factors That Shape Informed Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

    2015-10-01

    Decisions about cancer screenings often involve the consideration of complex and counterintuitive evidence. We investigated psychological factors that promote the comprehension of benefits and harms associated with common cancer screenings and their influence on shared decision making. In experiment 1, 256 men received information about PSA-based prostate cancer screening. In experiment 2, 355 women received information about mammography-based breast cancer screening. In both studies, information about potential screening outcomes was provided in 1 of 3 formats: text, a fact box, or a visual aid (e.g., mortality with and without screening and rate of overdiagnosis). We modeled the interplay of comprehension, perceived risks and benefits, intention to participate in screening, and desire for shared decision making. Generally, visual aids were the most effective format, increasing comprehension by up to 18%. Improved comprehension was associated with 1) superior decision making (e.g., fewer intentions to participate in screening when it offered no benefit) and 2) more desire to share in decision making. However, comprehension of the evidence had a limited effect on experienced emotions, risk perceptions, and decision making among those participants who felt that the consequences of cancer were extremely severe. Even when information is counterintuitive and requires the integration of complex harms and benefits, user-friendly risk communications can facilitate comprehension, improve high-stakes decisions, and promote shared decision making. However, previous beliefs about the effectiveness of screening or strong fears about specific cancers may interfere with comprehension and informed decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasoul Yousefpour

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1 take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2 evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.

  15. A Model of Human Decision Making in Complex Systems and its Use for Design of System Control Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jens; Lind, Morten

    The paper describes a model of operators' decision making in complex system control, based on studies of event reports and performance in control rooms. This study shows how operators base their decisions on knowledge of system properties at different levels of abstraction depending on their perc...... representation of system properties in a multilevel flow model is described to provide a basis for an integrated control system design.......The paper describes a model of operators' decision making in complex system control, based on studies of event reports and performance in control rooms. This study shows how operators base their decisions on knowledge of system properties at different levels of abstraction depending...... on their perception of the system's immediate control requirements. These levels correspond to the abstraction hierarchy including system purpose, functions, and physical details, which is generally used to describe a formal design process. In emergency situations the task of the operator is to design a suitable...

  16. Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling Approach on Decision-Making: Example using Equipment Performance Indicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana Kelly; Robert Youngblood

    2012-06-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are an integral part of risk-informed regulation of current and future nuclear plants in the U.S. The Bayesian approach to uncertainty, in which both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties are represented with precise probability distributions, is the standard approach to modeling uncertainties in such quantitative risk assessments. However, there are long-standing criticisms of the Bayesian approach to epistemic uncertainty from many perspectives, and a number of alternative approaches have been proposed. Among these alternatives, the most promising (and most rapidly developing) would appear to be the concept of imprecise probability. In this paper, we employ a performance indicator example to focus the discussion. We first give a short overview of the traditional Bayesian paradigm and review some its controversial aspects, for example, issues with so-called noninformative prior distributions. We then discuss how the imprecise probability approach treats these issues and compare it with two other approaches: sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayes modeling. We conclude with some practical implications for risk-informed decision making.

  17. A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagarello, F.; Haven, E.; Khrennikov, A.

    2017-10-01

    We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  18. A Model to Support Decision Making in the Idea Management Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Carradore Sérgio

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Taking into account the global competitiveness, innovation has become a challenge for organizations. Idea management is an integral part of the innovation process and it is presented as an essential factor for achieving success. Due to the volume and sudden peaks in submissions of ideas, the appropriate analysis and the allocation of resources for investment are important issues to be addressed. The objective of this paper is to present a model for the management of ideas based on ontology and cluster analysis in order to maximize resources for investment in ideas. So as to demonstrate the model feasibility it was prepared a dataset comprised of fifty-five ideas collected from the Starbucks® site. These ideas were then stored in the domain ontology and were used as subsidies for the cluster analysis and for the building of a knowledge base. As a result, it was identified groups with similar ideas that, when analyzed, foster a greater potential for observation and may indicate patterns and trends that can assist in decision making.

  19. Decision making model design for antivirus software selection using Factor Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurhayati Ai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Virus spread increase significantly through the internet in 2017. One of the protection method is using antivirus software. The wide variety of antivirus software in the market tends to creating confusion among consumer. Selecting the right antivirus according to their needs has become difficult. This is the reason we conduct our research. We formulate a decision making model for antivirus software consumer. The model is constructed by using factor analysis and AHP method. First we spread questionnaires to consumer, then from those questionnaires we identified 16 variables that needs to be considered on selecting antivirus software. This 16 variables then divided into 5 factors by using factor analysis method in SPSS software. These five factors are security, performance, internal, time and capacity. To rank those factors we spread questionnaires to 6 IT expert then the data is analyzed using AHP method. The result is that performance factors gained the highest rank from all of the other factors. Thus, consumer can select antivirus software by judging the variables in the performance factors. Those variables are software loading speed, user friendly, no excessive memory use, thorough scanning, and scanning virus fast and accurately.

  20. A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagarello, F; Haven, E; Khrennikov, A

    2017-11-13

    We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. Separating response variability from structural inconsistency to test models of risky decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Individual true and error theory assumes that responses by the same person to the same choice problem within a block of trials are based on the same true preferences but may show preference reversals due to random error. Between blocks, a person{}'s true preferences may differ or stay the same. This theory is illustrated with studies testing two critical properties that distinguish models of risky decision making: (1 restricted branch independence, which is implied by original prospect theory and violated in a specific way by both cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic; and (2 stochastic dominance, which is implied by cumulative prospect theory. Corrected for random error, most individuals systematically violated stochastic dominance, ruling out cumulative prospect theory. Furthermore, most people violated restricted branch independence in the opposite way predicted by that theory and the priority heuristic. Both violations are consistent with the transfer of attention exchange model. No one was found whose data were compatible with cumulative prospect theory, except for those that were also compatible with expected utility, and no one satisfied the priority heuristic.

  2. Optimal Modeling of Wireless LANs: A Decision-Making Multiobjective Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomás de Jesús Mateo Sanguino

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Communication infrastructure planning is a critical design task that typically requires handling complex concepts on networking aimed at optimizing performance and resources, thus demanding high analytical and problem-solving skills to engineers. To reduce this gap, this paper describes an optimization algorithm—based on evolutionary strategy—created as an aid for decision-making prior to the real deployment of wireless LANs. The developed algorithm allows automating the design process, traditionally handmade by network technicians, in order to save time and cost by improving the WLAN arrangement. To this end, we implemented a multiobjective genetic algorithm (MOGA with the purpose of meeting two simultaneous design objectives, namely, to minimize the number of APs while maximizing the coverage signal over a whole planning area. Such approach provides efficient and scalable solutions closer to the best network design, so that we integrated the developed algorithm into an engineering tool with the goal of modelling the behavior of WLANs in ICT infrastructures. Called WiFiSim, it allows the investigation of various complex issues concerning the design of IEEE 802.11-based WLANs, thereby facilitating design of the study and design and optimal deployment of wireless LANs through complete modelling software. As a result, we comparatively evaluated three target applications considering small, medium, and large scenarios with a previous approach developed, a monoobjective genetic algorithm.

  3. Uncertain Quality Function Deployment Using a Hybrid Group Decision Making Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ze-Ling Wang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Quality function deployment (QFD is a widely used quality system tool for translating customer requirements (CRs into the engineering design requirements (DRs of products or services. The conventional QFD analysis, however, has been criticized as having some limitations such as in the assessment of relationships between CRs and DRs, the determination of CR weights and the prioritization of DRs. This paper aims to develop a new hybrid group decision-making model based on hesitant 2-tuple linguistic term sets and an extended QUALIFLEX (qualitative flexible multiple criteria method approach for handling QFD problems with incomplete weight information. First, hesitant linguistic term sets are combined with interval 2-tuple linguistic variables to express various uncertainties in the assessment information of QFD team members. Borrowing the idea of grey relational analysis (GRA, a multiple objective optimization model is constructed to determine the relative weights of CRs. Then, an extended QUALIFLEX approach with an inclusion comparison method is suggested to determine the ranking of the DRs identified in QFD. Finally, an analysis of a market segment selection problem is conducted to demonstrate and validate the proposed QFD approach.

  4. TOPSIS-based consensus model for group decision-making with incomplete interval fuzzy preference relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang; Zhang, Wei-Guo

    2014-08-01

    Due to the vagueness of real-world environments and the subjective nature of human judgments, it is natural for experts to estimate their judgements by using incomplete interval fuzzy preference relations. In this paper, based on the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method, we present a consensus model for group decision-making (GDM) with incomplete interval fuzzy preference relations. To do this, we first define a new consistency measure for incomplete interval fuzzy preference relations. Second, a goal programming model is proposed to estimate the missing interval preference values and it is guided by the consistency property. Third, an ideal interval fuzzy preference relation is constructed by using the induced ordered weighted averaging operator, where the associated weights of characterizing the operator are based on the defined consistency measure. Fourth, a similarity degree between complete interval fuzzy preference relations and the ideal one is defined. The similarity degree is related to the associated weights, and used to aggregate the experts' preference relations in such a way that more importance is given to ones with the higher similarity degree. Finally, a new algorithm is given to solve the GDM problem with incomplete interval fuzzy preference relations, which is further applied to partnership selection in formation of virtual enterprises.

  5. Comparing perceptual and preferential decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutilh, Gilles; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2016-06-01

    Perceptual and preferential decision making have been studied largely in isolation. Perceptual decisions are considered to be at a non-deliberative cognitive level and have an outside criterion that defines the quality of decisions. Preferential decisions are considered to be at a higher cognitive level and the quality of decisions depend on the decision maker's subjective goals. Besides these crucial differences, both types of decisions also have in common that uncertain information about the choice situation has to be processed before a decision can be made. The present work aims to acknowledge the commonalities of both types of decision making to lay bare the crucial differences. For this aim we examine perceptual and preferential decisions with a novel choice paradigm that uses the identical stimulus material for both types of decisions. This paradigm allows us to model the decisions and response times of both types of decisions with the same sequential sampling model, the drift diffusion model. The results illustrate that the different incentive structure in both types of tasks changes people's behavior so that they process information more efficiently and respond more cautiously in the perceptual as compared to the preferential task. These findings set out a perspective for further integration of perceptual and preferential decision making in a single ramework.

  6. ADVANCES IN RENEWAL DECISION-MAKING UTILISING THE PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL WITH VIBRATION COVARIATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter-Jan Vlok

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Increased competitiveness in the production world necessitates improved maintenance strategies to increase availabilities and drive down cost . The maintenance engineer is thus faced with the need to make more intelligent pre ventive renewal decisions . Two of the main techniques to achieve this is through Condition Monitoring (such as vibrat ion monitoring and oil anal ysis and Statistical Failure Analysis (typically using probabilistic techniques . The present paper discusses these techniques, their uses and weaknesses and then presents th e Proportional Hazard Model as an solution to most of these weaknesses. It then goes on to compare the results of the different techniques in monetary terms, using a South African case study. This comparison shows clearly that the Proportional Hazards Model is sup erior to the present t echniques and should be the preferred model for many actual maintenance situations.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Verhoogde vlakke van mededinging in die produksie omgewing noodsaak verbeterde instandhouding strategies om beskikbaarheid van toerusting te verhoog en koste te minimeer. Instandhoudingsingenieurs moet gevolglik meer intellegente voorkomende hernuwings besluite neem. Twee prominente tegnieke om hierdie doelwit te bereik is Toestandsmonitering (soos vibrasie monitering of olie analise en Statistiese Falingsanalise (gewoonlik m.b.v. probabilistiese metodes. In hierdie artikel beskou ons beide hierdie tegnieke, hulle gebruike en tekortkominge en stel dan die Proporsionele Gevaarkoers Model voor as 'n oplossing vir meeste van die tekortkominge. Die artikel vergelyk ook die verskillende tegnieke in geldelike terme deur gebruik te maak van 'n Suid-Afrikaanse gevalle studie. Hierdie vergelyking wys duidelik-uit dat die Proporsionele Gevaarkoers Model groter beloft e inhou as die huidige tegni eke en dat dit die voorkeur oplossing behoort te wees in baie werklike instandhoudings situasies.

  7. Managerial Decision Making in Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Perić

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.

  8. Ethical Decision Making and Effective Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaucher, Ellie

    2010-01-01

    The problem. Educational leaders face challenges in the 21st century, make numerous decisions daily, and have the choice to make decisions based on ethics. Educational leaders may follow a corporate model regarding expenses and revenues while ignoring the best interests of children and their academic achievement. The alternative to the corporate…

  9. How attention influences perceptual decision making: Single-trial EEG correlates of drift-diffusion model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, Michael D.; Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Srinivasan, Ramesh

    2016-01-01

    Perceptual decision making can be accounted for by drift-diffusion models, a class of decision-making models that assume a stochastic accumulation of evidence on each trial. Fitting response time and accuracy to a drift-diffusion model produces evidence accumulation rate and non-decision time parameter estimates that reflect cognitive processes. Our goal is to elucidate the effect of attention on visual decision making. In this study, we show that measures of attention obtained from simultaneous EEG recordings can explain per-trial evidence accumulation rates and perceptual preprocessing times during a visual decision making task. Models assuming linear relationships between diffusion model parameters and EEG measures as external inputs were fit in a single step in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The EEG measures were features of the evoked potential (EP) to the onset of a masking noise and the onset of a task-relevant signal stimulus. Single-trial evoked EEG responses, P200s to the onsets of visual noise and N200s to the onsets of visual signal, explain single-trial evidence accumulation and preprocessing times. Within-trial evidence accumulation variance was not found to be influenced by attention to the signal or noise. Single-trial measures of attention lead to better out-of-sample predictions of accuracy and correct reaction time distributions for individual subjects. PMID:28435173

  10. How attention influences perceptual decision making: Single-trial EEG correlates of drift-diffusion model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, Michael D; Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Srinivasan, Ramesh

    2017-02-01

    Perceptual decision making can be accounted for by drift-diffusion models, a class of decision-making models that assume a stochastic accumulation of evidence on each trial. Fitting response time and accuracy to a drift-diffusion model produces evidence accumulation rate and non-decision time parameter estimates that reflect cognitive processes. Our goal is to elucidate the effect of attention on visual decision making. In this study, we show that measures of attention obtained from simultaneous EEG recordings can explain per-trial evidence accumulation rates and perceptual preprocessing times during a visual decision making task. Models assuming linear relationships between diffusion model parameters and EEG measures as external inputs were fit in a single step in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The EEG measures were features of the evoked potential (EP) to the onset of a masking noise and the onset of a task-relevant signal stimulus. Single-trial evoked EEG responses, P200s to the onsets of visual noise and N200s to the onsets of visual signal, explain single-trial evidence accumulation and preprocessing times. Within-trial evidence accumulation variance was not found to be influenced by attention to the signal or noise. Single-trial measures of attention lead to better out-of-sample predictions of accuracy and correct reaction time distributions for individual subjects.

  11. A new computational account of cognitive control over reinforcement-based decision-making: Modeling of a probabilistic learning task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zendehrouh, Sareh

    2015-11-01

    Recent work on decision-making field offers an account of dual-system theory for decision-making process. This theory holds that this process is conducted by two main controllers: a goal-directed system and a habitual system. In the reinforcement learning (RL) domain, the habitual behaviors are connected with model-free methods, in which appropriate actions are learned through trial-and-error experiences. However, goal-directed behaviors are associated with model-based methods of RL, in which actions are selected using a model of the environment. Studies on cognitive control also suggest that during processes like decision-making, some cortical and subcortical structures work in concert to monitor the consequences of decisions and to adjust control according to current task demands. Here a computational model is presented based on dual system theory and cognitive control perspective of decision-making. The proposed model is used to simulate human performance on a variant of probabilistic learning task. The basic proposal is that the brain implements a dual controller, while an accompanying monitoring system detects some kinds of conflict including a hypothetical cost-conflict one. The simulation results address existing theories about two event-related potentials, namely error related negativity (ERN) and feedback related negativity (FRN), and explore the best account of them. Based on the results, some testable predictions are also presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Computational Complexity and Human Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten

    2017-12-01

    The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

  14. Adolescent Decision-Making Processes regarding University Entry: A Model Incorporating Cultural Orientation, Motivation and Occupational Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2013-01-01

    This study tested a newly developed model of the cognitive decision-making processes of senior high school students related to university entry. The model incorporated variables derived from motivation theory (i.e. expectancy-value theory and the theory of reasoned action), literature on cultural orientation and occupational considerations. A…

  15. Modelling continuous pharmaceutical and bio-based processes at plant-wide level: A roadmap towards efficient decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Pedram; Mansouri, Seyed Soheil; Udugama, Isuru A.

    2018-01-01

    The importance of developing simulation models for decision making in pharmaceutical and bio-based production processes is elaborated in this article. The advantages of modelling continuous processes are outlined and certain barriers in this regard are identified. Although there have been some...

  16. A model of real estate and psychological factors in decision-making to buy real estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojan Grum

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the psychological characteristics of potential real estate buyers connected with their decision to buy. Through a review of research, it reveals that most studies of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate have a partial and dispersed orientation, and examine individual factors independently. It appears that the research area is lacking clearly defined models of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate that would integrally and relationally explain the role of psychological characteristics of real estate buyers and their expectations in relation to a decision to buy. The article identifies two sets of psychological factors, motivational and emotional, determines their interaction with potential buyers’ expectations when deciding to purchase real estate and offers starting points for forming a model.

  17. Using evidence to make decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Charles

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian evidence ratios give a very attractive way of comparing models, and being able to quote the odds on a particular model seems a very clear motivation for making a choice. Jeffreys' scale of evidence is often used in the interpretation of evidence ratios. A natural question is, how often will you get it right when you choose on the basis of some threshold value of the evidence ratio? The evidence ratio will be different in different realizations of the data, and its utility can be examined in a Neyman-Pearson like way to see what the trade-offs are between statistical power (the chance of "getting it right") versus the false alarm rate, picking the alternative hypothesis when the null is actually true. I will show some simple examples which show that there can be a surprisingly large range for an evidence ratio under different realizations of the data. It seems best not to simply rely on Jeffrey's scale when decisions have to be taken, but also to examine the probability of taking the "wrong" decision if some evidence ratio is taken to be decisive. Interestingly, Turing knew this and applied it during WWII, although (like much else) he did not publish it.

  18. Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

    2013-12-01

    Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

  19. The Attentional Drift Diffusion Model of Simple Perceptual Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriela Tavares; Pietro Perona; Antonio Rangel; Antonio Rangel

    2017-01-01

    Perceptual decisions requiring the comparison of spatially distributed stimuli that are fixated sequentially might be influenced by fluctuations in visual attention. We used two psychophysical tasks with human subjects to investigate the extent to which visual attention influences simple perceptual choices, and to test the extent to which the attentional Drift Diffusion Model (aDDM) provides a good computational description of how attention affects the underlying decision processes. We find e...

  20. Toward understanding Malaysian fishermen's decision making on the use of fishing technology: a mental model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamzah, Azimi; Krauss, Steven E; Shaffril, Hayrol A M; Suandi, Turiman; Ismail, Ismi A; Abu Samah, Bahaman

    2014-10-01

    The vast majority of Malaysia's fishermen are located in rural areas, specifically in the Western and Eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak central zones. In these areas, the fishing industry is relied upon as a major economic contributor to the region's residents. Despite the widespread application of various modern technologies into the fishing industry (i.e., GPS, sonar, echo sounder, remote sensing), and the Malaysian government's efforts to encourage their adoption, many small-scale fishermen in the country's rural areas continue to rely on traditional fishing methods. This refusal to embrace new technologies has resulted in significant losses in fish yields and needed income, and has raised many questions regarding the inputs to decision making of the fishermen. Drawing on multiple literatures, in this article we argue for the use of a mental model approach to gain an in-depth understanding of rural Malaysian fishermen's choices of technology adoption according to four main constructs--prior experience, knowledge, expertise and beliefs or values. To provide needed inputs to agricultural specialists and related policy makers for the development of relevant plans of action, this article aims to provide a way forward for others to understand dispositional barriers to technology adoption among fishermen who use traditional methods in non-Western contexts. © 2013 International Union of Psychological Science.

  1. Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-10-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

  2. The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

    2018-03-27

    Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

  3. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  4. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Schöbel

    Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  5. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

  6. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  7. Model : making

    OpenAIRE

    Bottle, Neil

    2013-01-01

    The Model : making exhibition was curated by Brian Kennedy in collaboration with Allies & Morrison in September 2013. For the London Design Festival, the Model : making exhibition looked at the increased use of new technologies by both craft-makers and architectural model makers. In both practices traditional ways of making by hand are increasingly being combined with the latest technologies of digital imaging, laser cutting, CNC machining and 3D printing. This exhibition focussed on ...

  8. Making Healthy Decisions About Sex

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... For Teens: How to Make Healthy Decisions About Sex Page Content Article Body Before you decide to ... alcohol or use drugs. Are You Ready for Sex? Sex can change your life and relationships. Having ...

  9. Decide Now - Ditch Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Campion, John

    2004-01-01

    .... The separation of psychology into sub-disciplines or paradigms that don't talk to one another. 3. The failure to distinguish between technical and common language usage when dealing with concepts such as decision making and command...

  10. Ethical aspect price decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubor Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.

  11. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenan M. Knight

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

  12. Balancing risk and reward: a rat model of risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Nicholas W; Gilbert, Ryan J; Mayse, Jeffrey D; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

    2009-09-01

    We developed a behavioral task in rats to assess the influence of risk of punishment on decision making. Male Long-Evans rats were given choices between pressing a lever to obtain a small, 'safe' food reward and a large food reward associated with risk of punishment (footshock). Each test session consisted of 5 blocks of 10 choice trials, with punishment risk increasing with each consecutive block (0, 25, 50, 75, 100%). Preference for the large, 'risky' reward declined with both increased probability and increased magnitude of punishment, and reward choice was not affected by the level of satiation or the order of risk presentation. Performance in this risky decision-making task was correlated with the degree to which the rats discounted the value of probabilistic rewards, but not delayed rewards. Finally, the acute effects of different doses of amphetamine and cocaine on risky decision making were assessed. Systemic amphetamine administration caused a dose-dependent decrease in choice of the large risky reward (ie, it made rats more risk averse). Cocaine did not cause a shift in reward choice, but instead impaired the rats' sensitivity to changes in punishment risk. These results should prove useful for investigating neuropsychiatric disorders in which risk taking is a prominent feature, such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and addiction.

  13. A system-of-systems modeling methodology for strategic general aviation design decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Henry Thome

    General aviation has long been studied as a means of providing an on-demand "personal air vehicle" that bypasses the traffic at major commercial hubs. This thesis continues this research through development of a system of systems modeling methodology applicable to the selection of synergistic product concepts, market segments, and business models. From the perspective of the conceptual design engineer, the design and selection of future general aviation aircraft is complicated by the definition of constraints and requirements, and the tradeoffs among performance and cost aspects. Qualitative problem definition methods have been utilized, although their accuracy in determining specific requirement and metric values is uncertain. In industry, customers are surveyed, and business plans are created through a lengthy, iterative process. In recent years, techniques have developed for predicting the characteristics of US travel demand based on travel mode attributes, such as door-to-door time and ticket price. As of yet, these models treat the contributing systems---aircraft manufacturers and service providers---as independently variable assumptions. In this research, a methodology is developed which seeks to build a strategic design decision making environment through the construction of a system of systems model. The demonstrated implementation brings together models of the aircraft and manufacturer, the service provider, and most importantly the travel demand. Thus represented is the behavior of the consumers and the reactive behavior of the suppliers---the manufacturers and transportation service providers---in a common modeling framework. The results indicate an ability to guide the design process---specifically the selection of design requirements---through the optimization of "capability" metrics. Additionally, results indicate the ability to find synergetic solutions, that is solutions in which two systems might collaborate to achieve a better result than acting

  14. Residents values in a rational decision-making model: an interest in academics in emergency medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhardt, John Christian; Smith-Coggins, Rebecca; Santen, Sally

    2016-10-01

    Academic physicians train the next generation of doctors. It is important to understand the factors that lead residents to choose an academic career to continue to effectively recruit residents who will join the national medical faculty. A decision-making theory-driven, large scale assessment of this process has not been previously undertaken. To examine the factors that predict an Emergency resident's interest in pursuing an academic career at the conclusion of training. This study employs the ABEM Longitudinal Survey (n = 365). A logistic regression model was estimated using an interest in an academic career in residency as the dependent variable. Independent variables include gender, under-represented minority status, survey cohort, number of dependent children, possession of an advanced degree, ongoing research, publications, and the appeal of science, independence, and clinical work in choosing EM. Logistic regression resulted in a statistically significant model (p < 0.001). Residents who chose EM due to the appeal of science, had peer-reviewed publications and ongoing research were more likely to be interested in an academic career at the end of residency (p < 0.05). An increased number of children (p < 0.05) was negatively associated with an interest in academics. Individual resident career interests, research productivity, and lifestyle can help predict an interest in pursuing an academic career. Recruitment and enrichment of residents who have similar values and behaviors should be considered in programs interested in generating more graduates who enter an academic career.

  15. Logical Reasoning and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Ong, D; Khaddaj, Souheil; Bashroush, Rabih

    2011-01-01

    Most intelligent systems have some form of \\ud decision making mechanisms built into their \\ud organisations. These normally include a logical \\ud reasoning element into their design. This paper reviews \\ud and compares the different logical reasoning strategies, \\ud and tries to address the accuracy and precision of \\ud decision making by formulating a tolerance to \\ud imprecision view which can be used in conjunction with \\ud the various reasoning strategies.

  16. On the impact of optimisation models in maintenance decision making: the state of the art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dekker, Rommert; Scarf, Philip A.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the state of the art in applications of maintenance optimisation models. After giving a short introduction to the area, we consider several ways in which models may be used to optimise maintenance, such as case studies, operational and strategic decision support systems, and give examples of each of them. Next we discuss several areas where the models have been applied successfully. These include civil structure and aeroplane maintenance. From a comparative point of view, we discuss future prospects

  17. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homberg, Judith R

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusted, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  19. Nonrational Processes in Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…

  20. The Role of Integrated Modelling and Assessment for Decision-Making: Lessons from Water Allocation Issues in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakeman, A. J.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; El Sawah, S.; Hamilton, S.

    2014-12-01

    Integrated modelling and assessment (IMA) is best regarded as a process that can support environmental decision-making when issues are strongly contested and uncertainties pervasive. To be most useful, the process must be multi-dimensional and phased. Principally, it must be tailored to the problem context to encompass diverse issues of concern, management settings and stakeholders. This in turn requires the integration of multiple processes and components of natural and human systems and their corresponding spatial and temporal scales. Modellers therefore need to be able to integrate multiple disciplines, methods, models, tools and data, and many sources and types of uncertainty. These dimensions are incorporated into iteration between the various phases of the IMA process, including scoping, problem framing and formulation, assessing options and communicating findings. Two case studies in Australia are employed to share the lessons of how integration can be achieved in these IMA phases using a mix of stakeholder participation processes and modelling tools. One case study aims to improve the relevance of modelling by incorporating stakeholder's views of irrigated viticulture and water management decision making. It used a novel methodology with the acronym ICTAM, consisting of Interviews to elicit mental models, Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models, Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process, an All-encompassing conceptual model, and computational Models of stakeholder decision making. The second case uses a hydro-economic river network model to examine basin-wide impacts of water allocation cuts and adoption of farm innovations. The knowledge exchange approach used in each case was designed to integrate data and knowledge bearing in mind the contextual dimensions of the problem at hand, and the specific contributions that environmental modelling was thought to be able to make.